Feb 2/Greek Fin Min changes position and will not ask for Greek haircut/GLD rises a gigantic 8.36 tonnes/no change in SLV inventory/French tanks land in Poland/Conditions between Ukraine and Rebels worsen/

Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen:

Here are the following closes for gold and silver today:

Gold: $1276.20 down $2.30   (comex closing time)
Silver: $17.23 up 4 cents  (comex closing time)

In the access market 5:15 pm

Gold $1274.00
silver $17.22

Gold/silver trading:  see kitco charts on right side of the commentary.

 

Following is a brief outline on gold and silver figures for today:

 

The gold comex today had a poor delivery day, registering 16 notices served for 1600 oz. We have now seen two weak consecutive delivery notice days . Silver comex registered 5 notices for 25,000 oz which is excellent for a non delivery month.

 

Three months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today the total inventory rests at 248.33 tonnes for a loss of 55 tonnes over that period.

In silver, the open interest surprisingly fell by a tiny 228 contracts despite Friday’s silver price being well up $0.47. The total silver OI continues to  remain relatively high with today’s reading at 163,241 contracts.

We had a very small 5 notices filed on this second day notice for 25,000 oz

In gold we finally had an increase in OI as we enter an active delivery month of February The rise in OI occurred with a huge increase   in the price of gold on Friday to the tune of $27.90. The total comex gold OI rests tonight at 422,794 for a gain of  5,676 contracts. On the first day notice, we have a shocking surprise in that only 55 notices were filed upon.  On this second day notice we again received a tiny 16 notices for 1600 oz.

The Greek story turned on a dime this evening as it looks like the EU and ECB told the Greeks the true state of affairs, that is what would happen if haircuts are asked for. It looks like they told them that the entire global finances would evaporate in smoke.  I have provided all stories from Saturday to today and you will see a complete 180 degree turn from the Greek side.

Denmark is desperate to keep the peg at 7.46 kroners per euro.  The past few days has seen them go to negative interest rates.  On Friday it was negative mortgage rates.   Today they announced that they were going to suspend debt offerings.  You can lower the value of the Kroner by increasing debt supply or by lowering demand.  They chose the later.

This will end badly for the Danes.

 

Today, we had another huge paper addition of 8.36 tonnes 0f gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory at 758.37 tonnes

In silver, /SLV inventory remains constant at 319.314 million oz

 

 

We have a few important stories to bring to your attention today…

 

Let’s head immediately to see the major data points for today

.

First: GOFO rates: the crooks are no longer reporting.

 

 

Let us now head over to the comex and assess trading over there today.

Here are today’s comex results:

The total gold comex open interest rose today by a rather large 4,623 contracts from 418,171 all the way up to 422,794 with gold up by $27.90 on Friday (at the comex close).  We are now in the big delivery month of the active February contract  and here the OI fell by 5,676 contracts  from 8,455 all the way down to 2,779,with all of these guys exiting their contracts outright. We had only 55 contracts served on Friday,  Thus we lost 5621 contracts or 562,100 oz which were no doubt bought out with fiat.  The next contract month of March saw it’s OI rise by 208 contracts up to 1265.  The next big active delivery month is April and here the OI rose by only 6023 contracts up to 295,256. The estimated volume today was awful at 62,712. The confirmed volume yesterday was fair at 190,339 contracts. Today we had 16 notices filed for 1600 oz .

And now for the wild silver comex results. Silver OI surprisingly fell by 228 contracts from 163,469 down to 163,241 despite the fact that silver was up by 47 cents on Friday.   We are now in the non active contract month of February and here the OI fell by 273 contracts down to 43.   We had 288 notices filed on Friday so we gained 15 contracts or 75,000  additional oz will  stand.   The next big active contract month is March and here the OI fell by 1,421 contracts down to 98,621. The estimated volume today was awful at 19,403. The confirmed volume on Friday was excellent  at 52,998. We had 5 notices filed for 25,000 oz today.

February initial standings

 

Feb 2.2015

Gold

Ounces

Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz nil
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz 16,075.000  oz(500 kilobars)
No of oz served (contracts) today 16 contracts(1600 oz)
No of oz to be served (notices)  2763 contracts 276,300 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month  71 contracts(7100 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawals  of gold from the Dealers inventory this month

Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month

 92.90 oz

Today, we had 0 dealer transactions

we had 0 dealer withdrawals:

total dealer withdrawal: nil oz

 

we had 0 dealer deposits:

total dealer deposit: nil oz

 

we had 0 customer withdrawal

 

total customer withdrawal: nil  oz

 

 

we had 1 customer deposit:

 

i) Into Scotia:  16,075.00  (500  kilobars)

total customer deposits;  16,075.00 oz

We had 0 adjustments

 

Today, 0 notices was issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0  notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 16 contracts of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan dealer and 6 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan customer account.

To calculate the total number of gold ounces standing for the December contract month, we take the total number of notices filed for the month (71) x 100 oz  or 7100 oz , to which we add the difference between the OI for the front month of February ( 2779 contracts)  minus the number of notices served today x 100 oz (16 contracts) x 100 oz = 283,900 oz, the amount of gold oz standing for the February contract month. (8.83 tonnes)

Thus the initial standings:

71 (notices filed for the month x( 100 oz) or 7100 oz + { 2779 (OI for the front month of Feb)- 16 (number of notices served upon today) x 100 oz per contract} = 283,900 oz total number of ounces standing for the February contract month. (8.83 tonnes)

 

 

 

Total dealer inventory: 769,022.858 oz or 23.91 tonnes

Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) = 7.983 million oz. (248.33) tonnes)

 

 

Several weeks ago we had total gold inventory of 303 tonnes, so during this short time period 54 tonnes have been net transferred out. We will be watching this closely!

 

end

 

 

And now for silver

 February silver: initial standings

feb 2 2015:

Silver

Ounces

Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory 65,598.16  oz (Scotia,CNT )
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory  nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory nil
No of oz served (contracts) 5 contracts  (25,000 oz)
No of oz to be served (notices) 38 contracts (190,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 293 contracts (1,465,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
Total accumulative withdrawal  of silver from the Customer inventory this month  165,609.3 oz

Today, we had 0 deposit into the dealer account:

total dealer deposit: nil   oz

we had 0 dealer withdrawal:

total dealer withdrawal: nil oz

 

 

We had 0 customer deposits:

 

total customer deposit nil oz

 

 

We had 2 customer withdrawals:

i) Out of CNT:  50,003.300 oz

ii) Out of Scotia: 15,594.860 o

total customer withdrawal: 65,598.16 oz

 

we had 0 adjustments

 

 

Total dealer inventory: 67.726 million oz

Total of all silver inventory (dealer and customer) 178.052 million oz

.

The total number of notices filed today is represented by 5 contracts for 25,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in January, we take the total number of notices filed for the month (293) x 5,000 oz    = 1,465,000 oz  to which we add the difference between the OI for the front month of February (43)- the number of notices served upon today (5) x 5,000 oz per contract = 1,655,000 oz,  the number of silver oz standing for the February contract month

Initial standings for silver for the February contract month:

293 contracts x 5000 oz= 1,465,000 oz + (43) OI for the front month – (5) number of notices served upon x 5000 oz per contract =  1,655,000 oz, the number of silver ounces standing.

 

we gained 75,000 oz of additional silver standing for this February contract month

for those wishing to see the rest of data today see:

http://www.harveyorgan.wordpress.com or http://www.harveyorganblog.com

 

end

 

 

The two ETF’s that I follow are the GLD and SLV. You must be very careful in trading these vehicles as these funds do not have any beneficial gold or silver behind them. They probably have only paper claims and when the dust settles, on a collapse, there will be countless class action lawsuits trying to recover your lost investment.

There is now evidence that the GLD and SLV are paper settling on the comex.

***I do not think that the GLD will head to zero as we still have some GLD shareholders who think that gold is the right vehicle to be in even though they do not understand the difference between paper gold and physical gold. I can visualize demand coming to the buyers side:

i) demand from paper gold shareholders

ii) demand from the bankers who then redeem for gold to send this gold onto China

vs no sellers of GLD paper.

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD:

 

 

feb 2/ a huge addition of 8.36 tonnes of “paper” gold inventory/Inventory tonight at 766.73 tonnes

 

 

jan 30. we had no change in gold inventory/Inventory at 758/37 tonnes

Jan 29/we had an addition of 5.67 tonnes of gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory at 758.37 tonnes

Jan 28/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory at 952.44 tonnes

Jan 27.we had a monstrous “paper” addition of 9.26 tonnes of gold into the GLD tonight/Inventory at 952.44 tonnes

Jan 26.2015: another volatile day as they added  1.79 tonnes/743.44 tonnes of gold.

Jan 23/the action at the GLD is very volatile:  today they added 1.20 tonnes of gold to their inventory/Inventory 741.65

Jan 22 no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory 740.45 tonnes

Jan 21.2015: Tonight, we lost 1.79 tonnes of gold from the GLD/Inventory 740.45 tonnes

Jan 20.2015:

Late Friday night, we had another addition of 13.74 tonnes of gold on top of the earlier amount of 9.56 tonnes which were added to inventory.

Tonight another 11.45 tonnes was added to inventory

Thus so far inventory rests at 742.24 tonnes of gold.

There is no chance that these guys could have assembled 34.65 tonnes over the weekend. The addition is nothing but a paper entry!! No real physical has been received.

Jan 16.2015 we had a huge addition of 9.56 tonnes of gold into the GLD/New inventory 717.15 tonnes.  (where on earth did they obtain that quantity of physical gold??)

 

 

 

 

Feb 2/2015 / we had a huge addition of 8.69 tonnes of   gold inventory at the GLD/

inventory: 766.73 tonnes.

 

 

 

The registered vaults at the GLD will eventually become a crime scene as real physical gold departs for eastern shores leaving behind paper obligations to the remaining shareholders. There is no doubt in my mind that GLD has nowhere near the gold that say they have and this will eventually lead to the default at the LBMA and then onto the comex in a heartbeat (same banks).

GLD : 766.73 tonnes.

 

end

 

 

 

 

And now for silver (SLV):

Feb 2 no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory at 319.314

million oz.

jan 30  no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory at 319.314

million oz

Jan 29/no change in silver inventory/SLV inventory at 319.314 million oz

Jan 28/no changes in silver inventory/SLV inventory at 319.314 million oz

Jan 27/no change in silver inventory/SLV inventory at 319.314 million oz

Jan 26.2015: no change in silver inventory/SLV inventory at 319.314 million oz

jan 23/2015/ a  huge addition of 1.053 million oz.  This entity is also being quite volatile/Inventory at SLV 319.314 million oz.

Jan 22 a huge reduction of 6.75 million oz/Inventory at 318.261 million oz

Jan 21 no change in silver inventory/Inventory at 325.011 million oz

Jan 20.2015: no change in silver inventory so far tonight/Inventory at 325.011 million oz

Jan 16.2015: we had another withdrawal of 1.34 million oz of silver inventory/Inventory 325.011 million oz

(something is up!!)

Jan 15.2015 we had a huge withdrawal of 1.628 million oz/Inventory 326.391 million oz

feb 2/2015 no change in silver inventory

registers: 319.314 million oz

 

 

end

 

 

 

And now for our premiums to NAV for the funds I follow:

Note: Sprott silver fund now for the first time into the negative to NAV

Sprott and Central Fund of Canada.
(both of these funds have 100% physical metal behind them and unencumbered and I can vouch for that)

 

1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative  4.3% percent to NAV in usa funds and Negative 4.1 % to NAV for Cdn funds!!!!!!!

Percentage of fund in gold 61.7%

Percentage of fund in silver:37.9%

cash .4%

 

( feb 2/2015)

 

 

2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): Premium to NAV rises to + 3.477%!!!!! NAV (Feb 2/2015)

3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV falls to +.12% to NAV(feb 2 /2015)

Note: Sprott silver trust back  into positive territory at +3.47%.

Sprott physical gold trust is back in positive territory at +.12%

Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail.

 

 

 

end

 

 

 

And now for your most important physical stories on gold and silver today:

 

 

 

Early gold trading from Europe early Monday  morning:

 

 

(courtesy Mark O’Byrne)

 

 

Gold and Silver Surge Over 8 Per Cent In January On Reignited Global Risks

 

 

In January, gold surged 8 per cent in dollar terms, 11 per cent in pound terms and a very large 16 per cent in euro terms.January’s 8.4% gain for gold in dollar terms was the best month in terms of price gains in three years.

Thus once again, gold bullion performed its role as a hedging instrument and a safe haven asset in January as the outlook became decidedly more uncertain – particularly in the Eurozone.

goldcore_chart1_02-02-2015
Gold in Euros – 1 Month (Thomson Reuters)

Gold’s 8.4% gain in January is its largest single month rise since 2012. Figures released on Friday indicate that US GDP was down sharply to 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2014, following a 3rd quarter surge at 5% as low oil prices begin to take their toll on the shale oil industry and the sectors that depend on it.

Unless the U.S. economy begins to grow more robustly, it is unlikely that the Federal Reserve will be able to raise rates any time soon. This should support sentiment towards gold and lead to further demand.

Meanwhile, this morning came further confirmation that Europe as a whole has sunk into deflation – year on year prices declined by 0.6%. The chronically fragile European banking system cannot afford a prolonged bout of deflation.

goldcore_chart2_02-02-2015
Gold in British Pounds – 1 Month (Thomson Reuters)

Central banks, including the Bank of England, have been fighting this process since 2008 – with very mixed success. We now appear to have reached a tipping point.

If the economies of Europe cannot reverse the trend and generate sustainable economic growth, the process will begin to feed on itself leading to company failures, bank failures and contagion – the ramifications of which will almost certainly include bail-ins.

However, given the intensification of currency wars, where countries devalue their currencies to gain a competitive advantage for their exports, it is difficult to envision a scenario where European prices will rise in the short term.

Gold is fulfilling its important role as safe haven in this environment. The toxic global macroeconomic picture, the overtly hostile language between the NATO and Russia, monetary uncertainty and currency debasement is boosting the appeal of gold and silver bullion.

The most dramatic exemplification of macroeconomic stress was the capitulation by the Swiss National Bank in removing its peg to the euro, followed by Mario Draghi’s announcement of a larger than expected ECB QE program.

goldcore_chart3_02-02-2015

Syriza have earned the hostility of the Troika while encouraging politicians and governments in the struggling European periphery. France have now given their backing to the new Greek government – a move which is bound to generate tension between France and German hawks and France and the IMF and ECB.

The warming Cold War has seen an intensification in brutality in the civil war in Ukraine. The future of the euro is in doubt with the accession to power of the new government in Greece. It appears intent and determined to looking after the interests of the Greek people and nation – rather than banks, and sections of the EU, the IMF and the ECB.

Bullion dealers, mints and refineries we spoke to at the World Money Fair in Berlin at the weekend all confirmed a marked increase in demand for gold and silver bullion in January.

Most expect this to continue in 2015 as the risks outlined are not going to abate anytime soon. Indeed, they are likely to deepen and intensify.

Diversification remains vitally important. Now is the time to reduce weightings to over valued risk assets such as equities and bonds, and increase allocations to undervalued safe havengold bullion.

 

DAILY MARKET UPDATE

Today’s AM fix was USD 1,274.25, EUR 1,122.69 and GBP 847.92 per ounce.
Friday’s AM fix was USD 1,263.50, EUR 1,114.98 and GBP 837.42 per ounce.

Silver’s down 1% today, meanwhile, platinum’s down 0.5%,and palladium is marginally higher.

goldcore_chart4_02-02-2015
Gold in US Dollars – 3 Months (Thomson Reuters)

In Singapore, gold for immediate delivery steadied above $1,275 an ounce on Monday after posting its biggest monthly gain in three years in the prior session following weaker-than-expected U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter. Bullion is likely to maintain its safe-haven appeal amid renewed concerns over the Eurozone and the global economy.

Gold prices have fallen marginally in early European trading, touching a session low just below the $1,275/oz mark, around 0.5% below where they ended Friday.

Gold and silver both rose on Friday but were lower for the week – gold by 0.7 per cent and silver by 5.7 per cent. Even after the falls last week, the precious metals had impressive gains for the month of January – gold surged 8 per cent and silver by 10.3 per cent in dollar terms and by more in other currencies.

Get Breaking News and Updates Here

 

 

end

 

Koos Jansen reports that the FRBNY reported that only 10.31 tonnes f gold leaves its vaults in December. The figures do not match what Germany reported in December.  I wrote to Koos suggesting a possible explaination:

 

(courtesy Koos Jansen)

 

 

 

Posted on 31 Jan 2015 by

Federal Reserve New York Gold Withdrawal Numbers 2014 Don’t Match Dutch-German Repatriation Claims

From January to December 2014 the Federal Reserve Bank Of New York (FRBNY) has been drained from 176.81 tonnes of physical gold out of the foreign deposit accounts. A drop from 6,195.60 tonnes to 6,018.79 tonnes over 12 months, FRBNY data published on Friday showed. The FRBNY doesn’t disclose how much is withdrawn by which central bank.