Feb 20/GLD adds 1.79 tonnes of gold/No changes in SLV/Greece capitulates and gives in on all points to the EU/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 WEB PAGE ADDRESS:  WWW.HARVEYORGANBLOG.COM

Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen:

Here are the following closes for gold and silver today:

Gold: $1204.40 down $2.70   (comex closing time)
Silver: $16.26 down 11 cents  (comex closing time)

 

 

In the access market 5:15 pm

 

 

Gold $1202.00
silver $16.24

 

Today, the big story was the deal between Greece and the EU folks which may not be a deal as Greece must summit the reforms it wishes by Monday.  If the Troika creditors  (sorry Institutions) do not like the reforms Greece wishes, then the deal is off and we have a GREXIT.  We have the complete breakdown of events for you tonight.

 

 

And now for gold/silver trading today.

 

Gold/silver trading:  see kitco charts on right side of the commentary.

 

 

Following is a brief outline on gold and silver comex figures for today:

 

 

The gold comex today had a fair delivery day, registering 81 notices served for 8100 oz.  Silver comex registered 0 notices for nil oz .

 

Three months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today the total inventory rests at 257.31 tonnes for a loss of 46 tonnes over that period.

 

In silver, the open interest rose by a tiny 24 contracts as yesterday’s silver price was up by 12 cents. The total silver OI continues to remain relatively high with today’s reading at 171,196 contracts. The front month of March contracted by only 5,846 contracts with only 5 days before  first day notice.

 

We had 0 notices filed  for nil oz

 

 

In gold we had another surprising rise in OI even though gold was up by only $7.40 yesterday. The total comex gold OI rests tonight at 394,414 for a gain of 3,382 contracts. Today we had 81 notices served upon for 8100 oz.

 

 

 

Today, we had a good deposit of 1.79 tonnes with respect to inventory at the GLD Inventory 769.46 tonnes.

 

 

In silver, /SLV  no change in  of silver inventory to the SLV/Inventory 324.299

 

 

We have a few important stories to bring to your attention today…

Let’s head immediately to see the major data points for today

.

First: GOFO rates: the crooks are no longer reporting.

 

 

Let us now head over to the comex and assess trading over there today.

Here are today’s comex results:

 

 

The total gold comex open interest rose by another 3,382 contracts today from  391,032 all the way up to 394,414 even though gold was up by only $7.40 on yesterday (at the comex close). We are now in the big delivery month of the active February contract and here the OI fell by 4 contracts falling to 548. We had 0 contracts served upon yesterday, thus we lost 4 gold contract or an additional 400 ounces will not stand  in this delivery month . The next contract month of March saw it’s OI fall by 28 contracts down to 690. The next big active delivery month is April and here the OI rose by 2481 contracts up to 264,019. The estimated volume today (which is just comex sales during regular business hours of 8:20 until 1:30 pm est) was awful at 59,539. The confirmed volume yesterday ( which includes the volume during regular business hours  + access market sales the previous day) was poor at 124,804 contracts even  with mucho help from the HFT boys. Today we had 81 notices filed for 8100 oz.

And now for the wild silver comex results.  Silver OI rose by a tiny 24 contracts from 171,172 all the way up to 171,196 as silver was up by  12 cents yesterday. The bankers were not  able to shake some silver leaves from the silver.  We are now in the non active contract month of February and here the OI fell from 56 down to 20 for a loss of 36 contracts. We had 36 notices filed on yesterday so we neither gained  nor lost any silver ounces in this contract month. The next big active contract month is March and here the OI fell by only 5,846 contracts down to 52,876.  First day notice for the gold and silver February contract months is on Friday, Feb 27.2015 or 5 trading days away.  The March OI is extremely high. The estimated volume today was poor at 21,370 contracts  (just comex sales during regular business hours. The confirmed volume yesterday was excellent (regular plus access market) a t56,551 contracts.  We had 0 notices filed for nil oz today.

February initial standings

 

Feb 20.2015

Gold

Ounces

Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz   32.15  oz (Manfra, one kilobar)
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  nil
No of oz served (contracts) today 81 contracts (8100 oz)
No of oz to be served (notices)  467 contracts (46,700 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month  717 contracts(71,700 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawals  of gold from the Dealers inventory this month

Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month

 228,307.2 oz

Today, we had 0 dealer transactions

we had 0 dealer withdrawals:

total dealer withdrawal: nil oz

 

 

we had 0 dealer deposits:

 

 

 

we had 1 customer withdrawals

i ) Out of Manfra;  32.15 oz  (1 kilobar)

 

total customer withdrawal: 32.15 oz

 

 

we had 0 customer deposits:

 

 

total customer deposits;  nil oz

 

We had 1 adjustment

i) Out of Manfra:  96.45 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account of Manfra;

 

 

Today, 0 notices was issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 81 contract of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan dealer and 78 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan customer account.

To calculate the total number of gold ounces standing for the December contract month, we take the total number of notices filed for the month (717) x 100 oz  or 71,700 oz , to which we add the difference between the OI for the front month of February (548 contracts)  minus the number of notices served today x 100 oz (81 contracts) x 100 oz = 118,400 oz, the amount of gold oz standing for the February contract month.( 3.68 tonnes)

Thus the initial standings:

717 (notices filed for the month x( 100 oz) or 71,700 oz + { 548 (OI for the front month of Feb)- 81 (number of notices served upon today} x 100 oz per contract} = 118,400 oz total number of ounces standing for the February contract month. (3.68 tonnes)

we lost 400 oz of gold standing in this February contract month.

 

 

Total dealer inventory: 810,047.429 oz or 25.195 tonnes

Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) = 8.272 million oz. (257.29) tonnes)

 

Several weeks ago we had total gold inventory of 303 tonnes, so during this short time period 46 tonnes have been net transferred out. However I believe that the gold that enters the gold comex is not real.  I cannot see continual additions of strictly kilobars.

 

 

end

 

 

 

And now for silver

 

February silver: initial standings

feb 20 2015:

Silver

Ounces

Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory 29,6689.72  oz (Delaware, CNT)
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory  nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory  806,597.910 (CNT, Scotia)  oz
No of oz served (contracts) 0 contracts  (nil oz)
No of oz to be served (notices) 20 contracts (100,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 420 contracts (2,100,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
Total accumulative withdrawal  of silver from the Customer inventory this month  5,564,154.9 oz

Today, we had 0 deposit into the dealer account:

total dealer deposit: nil   oz

 

we had 0 dealer withdrawal:

total dealer withdrawal: nil oz

 

We had 2 customer deposits:

 

i) Into CNT:  593,236.400 oz

ii) Into Scotia:  211,361.510 oz

total customer deposit: 806,597.910 oz

 

We had 2 customer withdrawals:

i) Out of CNT:  27,632.500 oz

ii) Out of Delaware: 2036.22 oz

 

 

total customer withdrawal: 29,668.72  oz

 

we had 0 adjustments

 

 

 

Total dealer inventory: 68,100 million oz

Total of all silver inventory (dealer and customer) 175.534 million oz

.

The total number of notices filed today is represented by 0 contracts for nil oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in February, we take the total number of notices filed for the month (420) x 5,000 oz    = 2,100 oz  to which we add the difference between the OI for the front month of February (20)- the number of notices served upon today (0) x 5,000 oz per contract = 2,200,000 oz,  the number of silver oz standing for the February contract month

Initial standings for silver for the February contract month:

420 contracts x 5000 oz= 2,100,000 oz + (20) OI for the front month – (0) number of notices served upon x 5000 oz per contract =  2,200,000 oz, the number of silver ounces standing.

we neither gained nor lost any  silver ounces standing in this February contract month.

It sure looks like something is brewing inside the silver comex.  We are within a fraction of all time high in OI and yet the silver price is at all time lows.  Something must eventually give out!!

 

for those wishing to see the rest of data today see:

http://www.harveyorgan.wordpress.com or http://www.harveyorganblog.com

 

end

 

 

The two ETF’s that I follow are the GLD and SLV. You must be very careful in trading these vehicles as these funds do not have any beneficial gold or silver behind them. They probably have only paper claims and when the dust settles, on a collapse, there will be countless class action lawsuits trying to recover your lost investment.

There is now evidence that the GLD and SLV are paper settling on the comex.

***I do not think that the GLD will head to zero as we still have some GLD shareholders who think that gold is the right vehicle to be in even though they do not understand the difference between paper gold and physical gold. I can visualize demand coming to the buyers side:

i) demand from paper gold shareholders

ii) demand from the bankers who then redeem for gold to send this gold onto China

vs no sellers of GLD paper.

 

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD:

 

 

Feb 20/we had another good addition of 1.79 tonnes of gold into the GLD.  Inventory 771.25 tonnes

 

Feb 19/ a huge addition of 1.5 tonnes of gold into the GLD/Inventory 769.46

 

Feb 18/ a small withdrawal of .3 tonnes/no doubt to pay for fees/Inventory 767.96 tonnes

 

Feb 17/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory 768.26 tonnes

 

feb 13. we another another withdrawal f 3.25 tonnes of gold from the GLD/Inventory 768.26 tonnes

 

 

Feb 12: we had a withdrawal of 1.8 tonnes of gold from the GLD/Inventory 771.51 tonnes

 

Feb 11.no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory 773.31 tonnes

 

Feb 10 no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory 773.31 tonnes

Feb 9 no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory 773.31 tonnes

 

feb 6/ no change in gold inventory tonight/inventory 773.31 tonnes

feb 5. we had another addition of 5.38 tonnes of gold to the GLD/Inventory tonight at 773.31 tonnes

Feb 4/2015; we had another addition of 2.99 tonnes added to the GLD inventory/Inventory tonight 767.93

 

 

 

 

 

Feb 20/2015 /we had an addition of 1.79 tonnes in gold inventory at the GLD

inventory: 771.25 tonnes.

The registered vaults at the GLD will eventually become a crime scene as real physical gold departs for eastern shores leaving behind paper obligations to the remaining shareholders. There is no doubt in my mind that GLD has nowhere near the gold that say they have and this will eventually lead to the default at the LBMA and then onto the comex in a heartbeat (same banks).

GLD : 771.25 tonnes.

 

 

end

 

 

And now for silver (SLV):

 

 

Feb 20 no change in silver inventory/324.299 million oz

 

Fen 19/ we had a huge addition of 4.082 million oz of silver into the SLV/Inventory 324.299 milllion oz

 

 

Feb 18.2015/ no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory at 320.327 million oz

 

Feb 17 no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory at 320.327 million oz

 

Feb 13 no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory at 320.327 million oz.

 

Feb 12 no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory at 320.327 million oz

 

Feb 11 no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory at 320.327 million oz

 

 

Feb 10 no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory at 320.327 million oz

 

 

Feb 9  no change in silver inventory/SLV inventory at 320.327 million oz

 

 

Feb 6  no change in silver inventory/SLV’s silver inventory at 320.327 million oz.

 

Feb 5.we had no change in silver inventory/320.327 million oz/

 

Feb 4/we had a small withdrawal of 136,000 oz of silver from the SLV vaults/Inventory/320.327 million oz

feb 3.2015: we had a good addition of 1.149 million oz of silver inventory/inventory 320.463 million oz

 

feb 20/2015 no change in  silver inventory at  the SLV

SLV inventory registers: 324.299 million oz

 

 

end

 

 

And now for our premiums to NAV for the funds I follow:

Note: Sprott silver fund now for the first time into the negative to NAV

Sprott and Central Fund of Canada.
(both of these funds have 100% physical metal behind them and unencumbered and I can vouch for that)

 

 

1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative  6.9% percent to NAV in usa funds and Negative 6.6% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!!!!!

Percentage of fund in gold 61.7%

Percentage of fund in silver:37.9%

cash .4%

 

( feb20/2015)

 

2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): Premium to NAV falls to + 3.65%!!!!! NAV (Feb 20/2015)

3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV falls to +.20% to NAV(feb 20 /2015)

Note: Sprott silver trust back  into positive territory at +3.65%.

Sprott physical gold trust is back into positive territory at +.20%

Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail.

 

 

end

 

 

 

At 3:30 pm we get the COT report.

 

 

 

Let us first explore the gold COT:

 

 

Gold COT Report – Futures
Large Speculators Commercial Total
Long Short Spreading Long Short Long Short
188,121 56,387 34,865 125,433 269,068 348,419 360,320
Change from Prior Reporting Period
-10,915 12,625 3,469 4,731 -22,225 -2,715 -6,131
Traders
149 80 75 51 53 231 183
 
Small Speculators  
Long Short Open Interest  
41,111 29,210 389,530  
-987 2,429 -3,702  
non reportable positions Change from the previous reporting period
COT Gold Report – Positions as of Tuesday, February 17, 2015

 

 Our large speculators;

 

Those large specs that have been long in gold pitched a huge 10,915 contracts from their long side.

 

Those large specs that have been short in gold added 12,625 contracts to their short side ???

 

Our commercials:

 

Those commercials that have been long in gold added 4731 contracts to their long side

 

Those commercials that have been short in gold covered a monstrous 22,225 contracts from their short side.

 

Our small specs;

Those small specs that have been long in gold pitched 987 contracts from their long side

Those small specs that have been short in gold added 2479 contracts to their short side.

 

 

And now for silver COT:

 

please note the difference between gold and silver

 

Silver COT Report: Futures
Large Speculators Commercial
Long Short Spreading Long Short
61,145 19,822 24,075 68,694 116,415
-889 4,652 3,637 4,256 -1,480
Traders
69 51 46 41 48
Small Speculators Open Interest Total
Long Short 175,193 Long Short
21,279 14,881 153,914 160,312
43 238 7,047 7,004 6,809
non reportable positions Positions as of: 132 127
Tuesday, February 17, 2015

Our large specs:

 

Those large specs that have been long in silver pitched a tiny 889 contracts from their long side

Those large specs that have been short in silver added 4652 contracts to their short side

 

Our commercials:

Those commercials that have been long in silver added 4256 contracts to their long side

Those commercials that have been short in silver covered 1480 contracts from their short side.

 

Our small specs:

Those small specs that have been long in silver added 174 contracts to their long side

Those small specs that have been short in silver added 278 contracts to their short side.

 

Conclusions: the commercials are covering like mad!!

 

And now for your most important physical stories on gold and silver today:

 

 

 

Early gold trading from Europe early Friday  morning:

 

 

(courtesy Mark O’Byrne)

 

Gold Down 1.5% This Week – Massive Complacency Regarding Greece as Geopolitical and Debt Crisis Loom

* Greek Bank Runs Accelerate as Possible ‘Grexit’ Looms
* Fatigue with Greek Crisis Breeding Massive Complacency
* Government in Kiev Forced to Take Diplomatic Approach
* Ukraine a Significant Setback for NATO
* Regional War in Eastern Europe Averted for the Moment
* Middle East, Israel and Iran Timebomb Ticking
* India Demand To Rise To 35 – 40 Tonnes This Month
* Gold Oversold – Fundamental and Technical Position Good 

The Greek debt saga continues and financial tragedy seems increasingly likely as the deadlock between Greece and the Eurogroup continues today.

goldcore_bloomberg_chart1_20-02-15

The two sides remain far apart during the Eurogroup meeting in Brussels. The 240 billion euro bank bailout expires at the end of this month and Greece could run out of money by the end of March without new external funds, driving it nearer to the euro zone exit.

There is already quite a lot of chatter about the possibility of another summit should today’s talks end in stalemate.

It has dragged along for so long now that a false sense of security has developed as the situation becomes the “new normal.”

This complacency is unwarranted. The situation will come to a head sooner rather than later.

There are new reports of bank runs in Greece coming into this Bank Holiday weekend. Officials in the Greek banking sector told Greek newspapers that as much as 25 billion euros have been withdrawn from Greek banks since the end of December with outflows surging this week ahead of a bank holiday.

Bank runs continue as Greek depositors rightfully fret regardingbail-ins or a return to the drachma. The prudent money is diversifying their savings so as not to be financially decimated.

Greece officially applied for a six month extension to its loan agreement, Eurogroup chair Jeroen Dijsselbloem said on Twitter of all places yesterday. U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew contacted Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis yesterday and warned him that failure to strike a compromise would bring further hardship on the country.

Either Greece will acquiesce to EU demands and eventually default anyway, or Greece will exit the Euro and unilaterally default causing unforeseeable consequences or Europe will cave-in which will embolden the anti odious debt factions across the European periphery.

Greece may even avail of a bail-out from the BRICS bank which would bring further geopolitical instability to Europe and further undermine the dollar system.

The final outcome of the Greek crisis is far from certain and there are no solutions presented so far which will not cause instability for the euro and the possible end of the ‘single’ currency.

Regional War in Eastern Europe Averted for the Moment

Meanwhile, the Franco-German peace initiative of Francois Hollande and Angela Merkel for Ukraine appears to be bearing fruit, though the process is still very fragile.

The landmark Minsk agreement saw France and Germany, Europe’s de facto leadership, negotiate a foreign policy independent of it’s heavy-weight NATO allies – the U.S. and Britain.

Petro Oleksiyovych Poroshenko, the fifth and current President of Ukraine, talks to troops

It was apparently catalysed by John Kerry’s suggestion that the U.S. would begin arming the Kiev government in its war on the separatist regions of Luhansk and Donetsk.

Such a move would have caused a reciprocal response from Russia, who insist that, to date, they have not armed the separatist groups. Foreign minister Lavrov has consistently asked Washington to back up their accusations to the contrary with evidence. No evidence has been presented.

Should Ukraine’s civil war escalate into a proxy war between Washington and Moscow it would destabilise Eastern and central Europe and possibly suck Europe uncontrollably into full scale conflict with Russia.

This is a frightening vista for all right thinking people. It would lead to a renewal of old rivalries and bitterness surfacing within former Eastern block nations and the Balkans.

The recent capture of Debaltseve is being touted as a dishonourable violation of the ceasefire agreement by Putin. It must be remembered that the separatists were not party to the Minsk agreement.

While they are consistently referred to as “pro-Russian” it is worth recalling that when they voted to secede from Ukraine they voted for independence, unlike the people of Crimea who voted to join Russia. They are predominantly ethnic Russians and wish to maintain close relations with Russia but this does not necessarily mean that Putin speaks for them.

As the Minsk talks began the separatists had already surrounded Debalseve and it’s capture was more or less a foregone conclusion. Debaltseve is an extremely important strategic target, a rail hub connecting the Luhansk and Donetsk regions. As such, from the separatist point of view it could not be left under Kiev’s control.

Now that it has been captured it is likely that the separatists will opt for a political solution.

The Kiev government is also likely to look for a political settlement. Ukraine is bankrupt. The IMF cannot fund a country who is at war. This is why Kiev consistently referred to the war as an anti-terror operation.

Referring to the conflict as a civil-war is a criminal offense in Ukraine and at least one journalist has received a harsh prison sentence for doing so.

The Kiev government and its war has grown incredibly unpopular. There has been huge resistance to the policy of conscripting young men to fight their former compatriots. There have been reports that the military is also growing impatient with the Poroshenko government.

The EU are eager to restore stability to the region and hope to cooperate with Ukraine in that objective. Russia shares this objective.

“We are already helping people in Donbass, first of all by sending humanitarian aid. I hold that Russia will not leave itself out and surely will help to restore this region.”

“However, this will be a common task shared between Russia and Ukraine and I hope that our European partners will also participate,” state Duma speaker Sergey Naryshkin has been quoted as saying.

“Members of the State Duma understand that the dialogue with our Ukrainian colleagues would be very difficult, but there is no alternative to it and we must do everything to thwart any attempts from across the ocean to obstruct this dialogue,” he added.

It is clear that Russia views events in Ukraine as a deliberate attempt by NATO to encircle and extend control right up to Russia’s borders. France and Germany may not view the crisis in the same light but seems likely they fear the possible outcome – instability in central and eastern Europe.

goldcore_bloomberg_chart2_20-02-15

When the EU views the extremism and chaos that U.S. intervention has unleashed across the Middle East and North Africa – it likely gives pause for thought.

So, for the moment, we can hope that a wider war has been averted but tensions between Moscow and Washington are unlikely to abate, especially as Russia continues to extricate itself from the SWIFT payment dollar system.

Middle East, Israel and Iran Timebomb Ticking
Meanwhile, the ticking time bomb that is the Middle East continues to quietly tick. This is something we will look at in more detail next week.

The global geopolitical situation is as tense as it has ever been in living memory. This uncertainty is not supportive of the already fragile financial and monetary system.

A diversification into physical gold, the universal money at all times and in all places is strongly advised.

MARKET UPDATE

Today’s AM fix was USD 1,203.50, EUR 1,061.38 and GBP 782.51 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,217.75, EUR 1,068.30  and GBP 788.60 per ounce.

Gold fell 0.31 percent or $3.80 and closed at $1,207.40 an ounce yesterday, while silver slipped 0.37 percent or $0.06 closing at $16.39 an ounce.

Gold in US Dollars - 5 Days (GoldCore)

Gold rose marginally this morning as the dollar strengthened and European shares climbed ahead of the eurozone meeting about Greece’s debt programme. Gold looks set for its fourth weekly fall and a fall of some 1.5 per cent in dollar terms.

Gold reached its lowest price in 6 weeks on Wednesday at $1,197.56. Comex U.S. gold futures for April delivery were up $3.50 an ounce to $1,209.20. In Singapore, gold was flat and remained above the $1,200/oz level.

 Silver rose 0.2 percent to $16.40 an ounce, platinum dropped 0.8 percent to $1,158.77 an ounce, after touching a 5-1/2-year low at $1,151.50 earlier. Palladium fell 0.7 percent to $779.00 an ounce this morning.

 Market liquidity is relatively thin as China, the world’s number 2 buyer, and several other Asian countries are closed for a week long Lunar New Year holiday.

India Demand To Rise To 35 – 40 Tonnes This Month

India’s gold imports are likely to rise to some 35 to 40 tonnes this February as compared to 26 tonnes in February last year, according to bullion refiner MMTC Pamp.

 “The country has already imported 23.2 tonnes of gold in the first fortnight of this month. Total shipments at the end of the month could reach 35-40 tonnes,” a senior official at MMTC Pamp told the Indian News Agency, Press Trust of India.

 Gold imports could see further accelerate during the wedding season, which begins  in March, the official added.

 In January, imports rose marginally to 36 tonnes from 31 tonnes in the same month of corresponding year.

 Gold shipments have been steadily rising after the Reserve Bank in November 2014 scrapped the 80:20 rule, under which it was mandatory for traders to export 20 per cent of their imports.

 The RBI has been easing import curbs on gold since November 2014 after their attempt to curb gold imports and demand failed due to a huge wave of gold smuggling.

Gold Oversold and Technical Position Good

The quite sharp sell off in the last four weeks means that gold appears oversold – including on a number of important technical criteria including the RSI and stochastic position.

In less than a month gold has fallen by more than $100 per ounce, since January 22nd, and given up much of the gains seen in January.

Gold in US Dollars - 1 Month (GoldCore)

Gold’s technical position remains quite positive with good support and physical demand at the $1,200/oz level – seen very briefly on the inter day dip on Wednesday of this week.

Independent technical analyst Cliff Green of the Cliff Green Consultancy, is worth listening to regarding the technicals of gold and silver.

He spoke to Jan Harvey in the Thomson Reuters Global Gold Forum yesterday about the chart picture for gold after the recent price slide.

Global_Gold_Forum  Jan Harvey  thomsonreuters.com:Welcome, Cliff!
Global_Gold_Forum  Cliff Green  cliff-green.com  Thank you a pleasure to be here

Jan Harvey  thomsonreuters.com  We broke through the 100-day moving average at 1216 yesterday, to end the day down nearly 2 percent. How significant was the break of that level, and what are the new levels being targeted on the downside?

Cliff Green  cliff-green.com  The break down yesterday certainly did some damage and while a little support should be uncovered in and around the 1200.0/05.0 area beleive a retest of the 1170.0 egion is now possible.

Jan Harvey  thomsonreuters.com  Where does support come from around 1170?

Cliff Green  cliff-green.com  it was the corrective lows seenat the beginning of year prior to rallying imprssively to the 1308 area.

Jan Harvey  thomsonreuters.com  How strong do you expect support to prove there? If that gives way, how far could we fall?

Cliff Green  cliff-green.com  Think this should hold and if prices can regroup around there beleive this weakness could become a component of a broader bottoming process

Jan Harvey  thomsonreuters.com  I see. So you don’t think a return to last year’s low at 1131 is likely?

Cliff Green  cliff-green.com  However if it is decisively breached it opens up a retest of the 1133 region#

Cliff Green  cliff-green.com  Oscillators are beginning to look a little oversold and this should add some potency to supports around 1170

Jan Harvey  thomsonreuters.com  If support *does* hold there, how far would that support the view that the pull-back that began a few years ago has bottomed at 1131?

Cliff Green  cliff-green.com  It would add to that evidence. I think the bulls would take great encouragement from it.

Jan Harvey  thomsonreuters.com  If we do manage to rebound, what level would you want to see attained before calling a recovery in prices?

Cliff Green  cliff-green.com  Key nearby resistance waits in the 1240.0/45.0 area and a market close back above here would relieve the current downward pressure and trigger acceleration towards 1280 again

Cliff Green  cliff-green.com  Until/unless achieved immediate rebounds are likely to be restricted to corrective bounces only for the time being

Jan Harvey  thomsonreuters.com  What’s your view on silver after yesterday’s 4.1% fall? Would you say the picture is yet bearish, and if so, what levels are we targeting?

Cliff Green  cliff-green.com  No I would not clssify silver as bearish. I think yesterday’s falls were yet a further component of a broad consolidation pattern that started back in October of last year

Cliff Green  cliff-green.com  Good support should be uncovered starting at 16.20 then again around 15.50.

Cliff Green  cliff-green.com   Increasing evidence suggests this could be a basing development.

 Jan Harvey  thomsonreuters.com  Thanks, Cliff! And thank you very much for joining us today

Cliff Green  cliff-green.com  Thanks Jan

Conclusion

The quite sharp sell off in recent weeks of over $100 means that gold appears oversold. China will return after its New Year festivities next Wednesday and demand is expected to be remain robust. SGE weekly withdrawals were 59.12 tonnes for the week ending Feb 13th.

goldcore_bloomberg_chart6_20-02-15

This allied with the increasing Indian demand makes for strong support under the market and bolsters the technical position.

Gold looks oversold and looks well supported at $1,200 per ounce given the continuing Greek debt saga, risk of ‘Grexit’
and geopolitical risk in Eastern  Europe and the Middle East.

While most analysts believe that Grexit will not happen in the coming days, we believe that it is wrong to completely discount this possibility and we believe that Grexit looks inevitable now – the question is when rather than if.

Another supporting factor is the deteriorating situation in Ukraine and relations between the U.S., NATO and Russia.

Breaking News and Updates Here

 

 

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the big date for the new gold fix is March 20.2015 and that is when the Chinese banks are part of the fix.  Will China raise the price of gold such that China becomes the gold fix?

 

( courtesy Wall Street Journal/GATA)

 

 

March date set for gold fix switch

Section:

By Ese Erheriene
The Wall Street Journal
Thursday, February 19, 2015

The deadline for the gold fix to enter the digital age is nearing.

The London Bullion Market Association said today that the gold benchmark will be set via an electronic platform managed by ICE Benchmark Administration beginning on March 20.

The new LBMA Gold Price will be set twice daily — at 10:30 GMT and 15:00 GMT — in dollars, euros, and sterling. It will replace the current private telephone conference between a group of four banks, the remnants of a cozy system that has existed since 1919. …

… For the remainder of the report:

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/02/19/march-date-set-for-gold-fix-sw…

 

 

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(courtesy Egon Von Greyerz/Kingworldnews/Eric King)

 

Gold is cheaper in real terms now than it was in 2002, von Greyerz says

Section:

4:25p ET Thursday, February 19, 2015

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Swiss gold fund manager Egon von Greyerz tells King World News today that gold is cheaper today in real terms than it was at $300 in 2002 even as the monetary metal has become far more strategic in international affairs. An excerpt from his interview is posted at the KWN blog here:

http://kingworldnews.com/mainstream-media-lying-public-world-faces-dange…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

 

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Finally, Dave Kranzler on the huge Chinese gold buying binge:

 

(courtesy Dave Kranzler/IRD)

 

 

Chinese Gold Buying Stampede

It seems the longer the Federal Reserve and its representative bullion banks keep a manipulative lid on the price of gold using paper gold naked shorts, the more physical gold the Chinese buy:

We can see elevated gold purchases on wholesale level (SGE withdrawals) of late, rapidly being sold to end consumers in the shops at the moment. China Gate News Channel reported on January 3rd a “stampede phenomenon” in a shopping mall in Beijing, were gold was sold at a rate of 400,000 yuan per minute (Bullionstar.com)

On the Shanghai Gold Exchange itself, another 59 tonnes were withdrawn last week (Bullionstar.com).  That makes a total of 374 tonnes YTD, which is up 17% year over year.  Please note:   This does not take into account the amount of gold being accumulated by China’s Central Bank, The Peoples Bank of China.   The PBOC is the only entity in China that is not required to source its gold from the SGE.   Here’s a snapshot of the of the massive gold accumulation going on in China (source:  goldchartsrus.com):