Feb 27.Three hot spots tonight: Greece, the Ukraine and Turkey

 

 

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Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen:

Here are the following closes for gold and silver today:

Gold: $1212.60 up $3.00   (comex closing time)
Silver: $16.51 down 7  cents  (comex closing time)

 

 

In the access market 5:15 pm

 

 

Gold $1213.10
silver $16.60

 

Tonight we have three hot spots to cover.

The first is the crisis in Greece where it seems that the Greeks have a payment of 1.6 billion euros that it must pay by the middle of March.  However the Euro boys do not want to pony over more money.  They also have 7.2 billion worth of liabilities that must be paid by next month on top of rolling over 4.6 billion in Treasury bills.  Greece may have to default.  There is rioting on the streets of Athens today.

 

The second hot spot is the Ukraine where they are experiencing hyperinflation to no end.  Food has disappeared from shelves.  The country has about 2.5 weeks of liquid reserves left before they run out. The IMF has now two huge headaches to deal with and everybody wonders where the money is going to come from.  The IMF only receives its money from donations from various countries as they have exhausted all other monies given to them.

Tonight, rioting on the streets of Kiev.

 

The third hot stop is Turkey.  We witnessed today, the complete collapse of the Turkish lira.  The government of Erdogan is feuding with its central bank.  This is something that investors frown upon and they are exiting this country faster than a speeding bullet.

 

We have many stories on these three fronts for you tonight as well as other important topics.

 

 

 

 

 

And now for gold/silver trading today.

 

Gold/silver trading:  see kitco charts on right side of the commentary.

 

 

Following is a brief outline on gold and silver comex figures for today:

 

 

The gold comex today had a poor delivery day, registering 0 notices served for nil oz.  Silver comex registered 1252 notices for 6,200,000 oz .

 

Three months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today the total inventory rests at 259.32 tonnes for a loss of 44 tonnes over that period.

 

In silver, the open interest fell by 3,149 contracts as Thursday’s silver price was up by 16 cents. The total silver OI continues still remains relatively high with today’s reading at 160,378 contracts. The front month of March contracted by 7862 contracts as today is first day notice.

Interestingly, the entire silver complex did not collapsed yet as is their usual procedure when we enter  first day notice for an active contract month. We had 1252 notices served upon for 6,260,000 oz.

 

 

 

 

In gold we had a slight rise in OI even though gold was up by $8.60 yesterday. The total comex gold OI rests tonight at 396,927 for a gain of 51 contracts. Today, surprisingly we had 0 notices served upon for nil oz.

 

 

 

Today,  no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory at 771.25 tonnes

 

 

In silver, /SLV  we had no changes in inventory to the SLV/Inventory 325.734 million oz

 

 

We have a few important stories to bring to your attention today…

Let’s head immediately to see the major data points for today

 

 

Let us now head over to the comex and assess trading over there today.

Here are today’s comex results:

 

 

The total gold comex open interest rose by 51 contracts today from  396,876 up to 396,927 as gold was up by $8.60 yesterday (at the comex close). The big February contract month is now off the board.  The next contract month of March saw it’s OI fall by 217 contracts down to 173. The next big active delivery month is April and here the OI fell by 3,404 contracts down to 257,857. The estimated volume today (which is just comex sales during regular business hours of 8:20 until 1:30 pm est) was awful at 51,847. The confirmed volume yesterday ( which includes the volume during regular business hours  + access market sales the previous day) was fair at 151,648 contracts even  with mucho help from the HFT boys. Today we had 0 notices filed for nil oz.

And now for the wild silver comex results.  Silver OI fell by 3,149 contracts from 163,527 down to 160,378 as silver was up by 16 cents with yesterday’s trading. We did not get our usual collapse in OI as we enter  first day notice.  The non active contract month of February is now off the board.  The next big active contract month is March and here the OI fell by a larger than expected 7862 contracts down to 3,142.  The estimated volume today was poor 14,431 contracts  (just comex sales during regular business hours. The confirmed volume yesterday was excellent (regular plus access market) at 63,149 contracts. We had 1252 notices filed for 6,240,000 oz today.

March initial standings

 

Feb 27.2015

Gold

Ounces

Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz   482.25  5 kilobar (Manfra)
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 700.01 (Brinks)
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  80,375.000 oz   2500 kilobars (JPMorgan,Scotia)
No of oz served (contracts) today 0 contracts (nil oz)
No of oz to be served (notices)  173 contracts (17,300 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month 0 contracts(nil oz)
Total accumulative withdrawals  of gold from the Dealers inventory this month

Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month

 482.25 oz

Today, we had 1 dealer transactions

we had 0 dealer withdrawals:

total dealer withdrawal: nil oz

 

 

we had 1 dealer deposits:

 

i) Into Brinks:  700.01 oz

 

we had 1 customer withdrawals

i) Out of Manfra:  5 kilobar or 482.25 oz

 

total customer withdrawal: 482.25 oz

 

 

we had 0 customer deposits:

 

 

total customer deposits;  nil  oz

 

We had 1 adjustment

 

i) Out of JPMorgan: 401.05 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer account at JPM<

 

 

 

Today, 0 notices was issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 0 contracts of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan dealer and 95 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan customer account.

To calculate the total number of gold ounces standing for the March contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (o) x 100 oz  or  0 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of March (173) and the number of notices served upon today (0) x 100 oz equals the number of ounces standing.

 

Thus the initial standings for gold for the March contract month:

 

No of notices served so far (0) x 100 oz  or ounces + {OI for the front month (173) – the number of  notices served upon today (0) x 100 oz} =  17,300 oz or .5381 tonnes

 

 

Total dealer inventory: 814,895.586 oz or 25.34 tonnes

Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) = 8.337 million oz. (259.32) tonnes)

 

Several weeks ago we had total gold inventory of 303 tonnes, so during this short time period 44 tonnes have been net transferred out. However I believe that the gold that enters the gold comex is not real.  I cannot see continual additions of strictly kilobars.

 

 

end

 

 

 

And now for silver

 

March silver initial standings

feb 27 2015:

Silver

Ounces

Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory nil  oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory  nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory  nil  oz ( Scotia)
No of oz served (contracts) 1252 contracts  (6,260,000 oz)
No of oz to be served (notices) 1890 contracts (9,450,000)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 1252 contracts (6,260,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
Total accumulative withdrawal  of silver from the Customer inventory this month

Today, we had 0 deposit into the dealer account:

total dealer deposit: nil   oz

 

we had 0 dealer withdrawal:

total dealer withdrawal: nil oz

 

We had 0 customer deposits:

 

 

 

total customer deposit: nil oz

 

We had 0 customer withdrawals:

 

 

total customer withdrawal: nil  oz

 

we had 1 adjustment

 

i) Out of CNT: 1,296,519.03 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer account of CNT

 

Total dealer inventory: 68.811 million oz

Total of all silver inventory (dealer and customer) 176.895 million oz

.

The total number of notices filed today is represented by 1252 contracts for 6,260,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in March, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at (1252) x 5,000 oz    = 6,260,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of March (3142) and the number of notices served upon today (1252) x 5000 oz  equals the number of ounces standing.

 

Thus the initial standings for silver for the March contract month:

1256 (notices served so far) + { OI for front month of March (3142) -no of notices served upon today (12560} x 5000 oz =  15,710,000 oz standing for the March contract month.

 

 

for those wishing to see the rest of data today see:

http://www.harveyorgan.wordpress.com or http://www.harveyorganblog.com

 

end

 

 

The two ETF’s that I follow are the GLD and SLV. You must be very careful in trading these vehicles as these funds do not have any beneficial gold or silver behind them. They probably have only paper claims and when the dust settles, on a collapse, there will be countless class action lawsuits trying to recover your lost investment.

There is now evidence that the GLD and SLV are paper settling on the comex.

***I do not think that the GLD will head to zero as we still have some GLD shareholders who think that gold is the right vehicle to be in even though they do not understand the difference between paper gold and physical gold. I can visualize demand coming to the buyers side:

i) demand from paper gold shareholders

ii) demand from the bankers who then redeem for gold to send this gold onto China

vs no sellers of GLD paper.

 

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD:

 

feb 27.2015 no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory at 771.25 tonnes

 

 

Feb 26. no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory at 771.25 tonnes

Feb 25. no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory at 771.25 tonnes

 

Feb 24.2015: no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory at 771.25 tonnes

 

Feb 23.2015: no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory at 771.25 tonnes

 

 

Feb 20/we had another good addition of 1.79 tonnes of gold into the GLD.  Inventory 771.25 tonnes

 

Feb 19/ a huge addition of 1.5 tonnes of gold into the GLD/Inventory 769.46

 

Feb 18/ a small withdrawal of .3 tonnes/no doubt to pay for fees/Inventory 767.96 tonnes

 

Feb 17/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory 768.26 tonnes

 

feb 13. we another another withdrawal f 3.25 tonnes of gold from the GLD/Inventory 768.26 tonnes

 

 

Feb 12: we had a withdrawal of 1.8 tonnes of gold from the GLD/Inventory 771.51 tonnes

 

Feb 11.no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory 773.31 tonnes

 

 

 

 

 

 

Feb 27/2015 / no change in gold inventory at the GLD/

inventory: 771.25 tonnes.

The registered vaults at the GLD will eventually become a crime scene as real physical gold departs for eastern shores leaving behind paper obligations to the remaining shareholders. There is no doubt in my mind that GLD has nowhere near the gold that say they have and this will eventually lead to the default at the LBMA and then onto the comex in a heartbeat (same banks).

GLD : 771.25 tonnes.

 

 

end

 

 

And now for silver (SLV):

 

 

Feb 27.2015 no change in silver inventory tonight: 725.734 million oz

 

 

Feb 26. no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory at 725.734 million oz

 

 

Feb 25. no changes in silver inventory/SLV inventory at 725.734 million oz

Feb 24.we had an addition of 1.435 million oz of silver to the SLV/SLV inventory at 725.734 million oz

 

Feb 23 no change in silver inventory/324.299 million oz

Feb 20 no change in silver inventory/324.299 million oz

 

Fen 19/ we had a huge addition of 4.082 million oz of silver into the SLV/Inventory 324.299 million oz

 

 

Feb 18.2015/ no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory at 320.327 million oz

 

Feb 17 no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory at 320.327 million oz

 

Feb 13 no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory at 320.327 million oz.

 

Feb 12 no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory at 320.327 million oz

 

Feb 11 no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory at 320.327 million oz

 

 

feb 27/2015   no changes/

 

 

SLV inventory registers: 325.735 million oz

 

 

end

 

 

And now for our premiums to NAV for the funds I follow:

Note: Sprott silver fund now for the first time into the negative to NAV

Sprott and Central Fund of Canada.
(both of these funds have 100% physical metal behind them and unencumbered and I can vouch for that)

 

 

1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative  5.9% percent to NAV in usa funds and Negative 6.2% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!!!!!

Percentage of fund in gold 61.5%

Percentage of fund in silver:38.0%

cash .5%

 

( feb27/2015)

 

Sprott gold fund finally rising in NAV

 

 

 

2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): Premium to NAV falls to + 2.73%!!!!! NAV (Feb 27/2015)

3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV falls to +.22% to NAV(feb 27 /2015)

Note: Sprott silver trust back  into positive territory at +2.73%.

Sprott physical gold trust is back into positive territory at +.22%

Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail.

 

 

end

 

At 3:30 pm we get the COT report which gives position levels of our major players:

 

First the gold COT

 

Gold COT Report – Futures
Large Speculators Commercial Total
Long Short Spreading Long Short Long Short
184,416 58,245 41,717 133,432 269,126 359,565 369,088
Change from Prior Reporting Period
-3,705 1,858 6,852 7,999 58 11,146 8,768
Traders
142 81 75 54 53 228 184
 
Small Speculators  
Long Short Open Interest  
39,742 30,219 399,307  
-1,369 1,009 9,777  
non reportable positions Change from the previous reporting period
COT Gold Report – Positions as of Tuesday, February 24, 2015

 

Our large speculators:

Those large specs that have been long in gold pitched a large 3705 contracts from their long side

Those large specs that have been short in gold added another 1858 contracts to their short side.

 

Our commercials;

Those commercials that have been long in gold added a huge 7999 contracts to their long side.

Those commercials that have been short in gold added on a tiny 58 contracts to their short side.

 

Our small specs;
Those small specs that have been long in gold pitched 1369 contracts from their long side

Those small specs that have been short in gold added another 1009 contracts to their short side.

 

Conclusions:  generally very bullish if you believe the figures.

 

And now for our silver COT

 

Silver COT Report: Futures
Large Speculators Commercial
Long Short Spreading Long Short
57,348 20,009 23,044 67,267 109,414
-3,797 187 -1,031 -1,427 -7,001
Traders
71 44 43 44 45
Small Speculators Open Interest Total
Long Short 166,676 Long Short
19,017 14,209 147,659 152,467
-2,262 -672 -8,517 -6,255 -7,845
non reportable positions Positions as of: 137 117
Tuesday, February 24, 2015   © Silve

 

Our large specs:

 

Those large specs that have been long in silver pitched a large 3797 contracts from their long side

Those large specs that have been short i silver added another 187 contracts to their short side.

 

Our commercials;

Those commercials that have been long in silver pitched 1427 contracts from their long side.

Those commercials that have been short in silver covered a monstrous 7001 contracts from their short side.

 

Our small specs;

Those small specs that have been long in silver pitched a large 2262 contracts from their long side.

 

Those small specs that have been short in silver covered 672 contracts from their short side.

 

Conclusion:  again very bullish from a commercial standpoint and if you believe the figures.

 

end

 

 

And now for your most important physical stories on gold and silver today:

 

 

 

Early gold trading from Europe early Friday  morning:

 

 

(courtesy Mark O’Byrne)

 

 

Gold Sovereigns Bought by Greeks in Volume as New Greek Drachmas Designed

– Greece warns may default on IMF loan next week

– Greek bank runs continue and deposits flee

– German Bundestag votes for bailout extension

– Syriza agree to a bailout extension of four months, in return for concessions yet to be approved by the EU

– Questions over Syriza negotiating a weak deal despite its strong position

– Greece and EU buying time to arrange orderly “Grexit”?

– Greece has printing presses poised to print newly designed Greek drachmas

– Greeks buying gold bullion

The Euro Working Group discussed Greece’s imminent funding problems yesterday amid mounting concern about how the country will meet its massive obligations.

Minister of State for Coordinating Government Operations, Alekos Flambouraris, suggested yesterday that Greece might delay payment to the IMF if it cannot find the necessary money. Greece is due to pay the IMF 1.6 billion euros next month but the Greek Minister said that Athens might ask to delay this payment for two months.

Proposed New Greek Drachmas

Kathimerini reports that “the possibility of Greece postponing the repayment of any debt tranches to the IMF is seen as “exceptionally complicated” with “many obstacles,” according to officials “familiar with the subject”. They stress that such a move would constitute a “clear default,” with consequences for a large number of other loans Greece has received.”

Yesterday the Bank of Greece presented its latest, January, bank deposit data and it shows bank runs continue in Greece. There was a record €12.2 billion monthly outflow of deposits. This is greater in absolute and relative terms than anything experienced during any of the previous Greek crises and bailouts.

The total amount of Greek corporate and household deposits has now tumbled to just €148 billion. This number is in line with some of the more pessimistic expectations, and brings the total cash holdings at Greek banks to the lowest level since August 2005.

Separately and not surprisingly, the German parliament has approved the bailout extension by a large majority in the Bundestag.

The announcement last Friday that Greece would after all adhere to an extended bailout program was viewed as a capitulation by Syriza and a triumph for Germany and the Eurogroup.

The statement, which simply reaffirmed the existing program, substituting some unpalatable terms with euphemisms – Troika is referred to as “institutions,” for example, has sparked dissent within Syriza itself and the first violent protests against the new government outside the Greek parliament were seen yesterday.

We consider it odd that Greece should have folded while its hand was so strong. Greece could push the EU to the brink. From the point of view of Syriza’s electorate, things cannot get much worse anyway.

Ultimately, Greece could get its bridging loan from Russia or the BRICS bank so why should Syriza buckle and face national humiliation when it did not need to. We suspect a larger game is afoot.

Sharelynx.com

Some analysts have suggested that the EU and Greece have reached a stalemate and are preparing to attempt an orderly exit by Greece from the Euro and back to the Drachma.

 This may certainly be the case. Greece has newly designed Drachma notes (see above) and printing presses waiting for the order to start rolling.

 Where all this is leading is anyone’s guess. If it is a simple case of Syriza being out-smarted by its EU partners it can only lead to social unrest in Greece and a possible rise of the fascist Golden Dawn.

At any rate, Greece is bankrupt with no hope in sight, at least within the Euro monetary union, so eventual default appears inevitable.

If Greece and the EU have agreed to disagree there is no guarantee that the process will be orderly despite the best intentions of both sides. If it is achieved it will open the door for other peripheral nations to follow suit, each exit process a mine-field.

Greeks have been accumulating physical gold in recent months in anticipation of bank holidays, possible bail-ins and indeed a possible return to the drachma.

Despite the last minute Greek debt deal, we are continuing to see demand from Greece including demand from companies and some high net worth buying. 

Demand in January and so far in February has been very high with dozens of new accounts opened and purchases valued in the millions. Many of the new Greek clients said that these were not one of purchases, as is often the case, rather initial purchases, with a view to buying more in the coming months.

goldcore_bloomberg_chart6_27-02-15

We have clients in over 40 countries but Greece saw the greatest increase in demand in January and this has continued into the end of February. In demand are gold sovereigns and bars – some for delivery but more for storage, in Zurich primarily.

British sovereigns remain the traditional favourite of Greek investors and the Bank of Greece continues to see very high demand for sovereigns in Athens.

Millions of euros worth of demand for gold is small vis a vis other assets but it is a large increase in terms of physical gold demand – especially as it came from a very low base – Greek demand was quite low last year.

Concerns about bank deposits and the ‘Grexit’ remain and lingering doubts about the long term outlook are leading to continued safe haven demand.

The Greek situation is far from resolved and the euro is still in peril. Today came news that the Irish government has contingency plans for the collapse of the euro including a return to the Irish national currency – the Irish punt. This is something we said was likely to be the case and we were attacked as “scaremongering.”

The truth can be a scary thing sometimes … especially for those who put their head in the sand and ignore it.

Owners of physical gold will be protected should we see a reversion to national currencies and or further currency devaluations in the ongoing currency wars.

Updates and Award Winning Research Here


MARKET UPDATE

Today’s AM fix was USD 1,205.00, EUR 1,073.59 and GBP 782.77 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,220.00, EUR 1,073.66 and GBP 785.58 per ounce.

Gold climbed 0.32% percent or $3.80 and closed at $1,208.40 an ounce on yesterday, while silver remained unchanged at $16.54 an ounce.

goldcore_bloomberg_chart7_27-02-15

Gold and silver are set for gains in all currencies this week after losses in February – losses which reversed some of the initial 2015 gains in January.

Gold in euros has retreated in February, after posting its biggest monthly rise in 17 years in January. Gold in euro is down 5.5% on the month – the biggest monthly drop in over a year.

Gold in euros appears to have found pretty strong support at the 50-day moving average (at €1061 currently) according to analysts in the Thomson Reuters Global Gold Forum.

Gold in US Dollars - 5 Days (Goldcore)

Gold in dollars edged downward in early morning trading in London, hampered by a stronger dollar and traders taking profits on gains seen this week. Gold in Singapore was up 0.2 percent at $1,210.80 an ounce near end of day trading. In late morning trading in London the metals group are all marginally lower.

Gold is $1,206.10 off 0.33%, silver is $16.47 off 0.77% andplatinum is $1,172.96 off 0.36%.

Chinese demand remained robust this week and again overnight which is supporting gold at these levels. As is the more dovish noises made by Fed Chair Janet Yellen on Wednesday.

China plans to start their own benchmark yuan denominated gold fix that would come from a new 1kg contract to be launched at the government run Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) a source told Reuters. The SGE only opened in the city’s free trade zone in September 2014 and allows foreigners to trade yuan denominated contracts.

The world’s biggest gold buyer will further influence the pricing of the precious metal and appears to have designs on becoming the world’s leading precious metals hub.

Gold in GBP - 5 Days (Goldcore)

India’s demand for gold was only average this week as buyers in the world’s number 2 buyer of the metal held off purchases ahead of an expected cut in import duty. But dealers are expected to increase their demand, if the import duty is lowered from a record 10 percent in Saturday’s federal budget.

India may announce a cut to their import duties in their annual budget to be published tomorrow. Some analysts put the cut on the gold duty at 2 to 4 percent from 10 percent. Another positive gold factor.

Gold in EURO - 5 Years (Goldcore)

U.S. economic data to be released today are the important GDP figures, The Chicago PMI, pending home sales and the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment and inflation reports.

Poor numbers and a higher than expected inflation number should see gold make gains. Better than expected numbers could see gold come under selling pressure.

Earlier this week Switzerland’s competition commission said it was looking into possible gold and silver manipulation, and the Wall Street Journal reported the U.S. Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) were investigating at least 10 major banks for price rigging of precious metals markets.

The last thing insolvent banks and governments want are surging gold and silver prices.

Perverted and ‘unfree’ markets create profound risks to financial systems and economies for all investors and savers. They also present opportunities.

As ever, it is prudent to be on the opposite side of official manipulation as ultimately the free market forces of supply and demand will always win out.

This was seen recently when the Swiss franc peg broke resulting in the franc surging 40% in 13 minutes. The same will likely happen to precious metal prices when the manipulation of banks come to an end – likely through the power of the physical demand of 3 billion people including high net worth and central banks in Russia, India, China and Asia.

Breaking News and Updates Here

 

 

 

end

 

 

Brien Lundin is correct where he does not expect much from the Justice probe of the gold market:

 

(courtesy Brien Lundin/GATA)

 

 

Brien Lundin: Don’t expect much from Justice probe of gold market rigging

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