March 4/Greece robs its pension funds/Poland lowers its interest rate/Bourses falter

Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen:

Here are the following closes for gold and silver today:

Gold: $1200.60 down $3.40   (comex closing time)
Silver: $16.13 down 13  cents  (comex closing time)

 

 

In the access market 5:15 pm

 

 

Gold $1200.00
silver $16.24

 

 

We have  many  stories to bring your way.

However first..your data from gold and silver trading together with data from the comex…

 

 

 

 

 

Gold/silver trading:  see kitco charts on right side of the commentary.

 

 

Following is a brief outline on gold and silver comex figures for today:

 

 

The gold comex today had a poor delivery day, registering 0 notices served for nil oz.  Silver comex registered 39 notices for 195,000 oz .

 

Several months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today the total inventory rests at 260.08 tonnes for a loss of 43 tonnes over that period.

 

In silver, the open interest rose by 1278 contracts even though Tuesday’s silver price was down by 15 cents. The total silver OI continues still remains relatively high with today’s reading at 164,018 contracts. The front month of March contracted by 10 contracts.

We had  39 notices served upon for 195,000 oz.

 

In gold we had a good rise in OI even though gold was down by $3.70 yesterday. The total comex gold OI rests tonight at 405,124 for a gain of 97 contracts. Today, surprisingly we again had 0 notices served upon for nil oz.

 

 

 

Today,  inventory stays at 760.80  tonnes/ i.e. no change

 

 

In silver, /SLV  we had a small deposit of 328,000 oz of silver into  the SLV/Inventory 326.118 million oz

 

 

We have a few important stories to bring to your attention today…

Let’s head immediately to see the major data points for today

 

 

Let us now head over to the comex and assess trading over there today.

Here are today’s comex results:

 

 

The total gold comex open interest rose by 97 contracts today from 405,027 up to 405,124 despite the fact that  gold was down by $3.70 yesterday (at the comex close). We are now in the contract month of March which saw it’s OI fall by 10 contracts down to 153. We had 1 notice filed on yesterday so we lost 9 contracts or an additional 900 oz will not stand for delivery in March. The next big active delivery month is April and here the OI fell by 3,251 contracts down to 257,573. The estimated volume today (which is just comex sales during regular business hours of 8:20 until 1:30 pm est) was poor at 54,920. The confirmed volume yesterday ( which includes the volume during regular business hours  + access market sales the previous day) was fair at 174,001 contracts even  with mucho help from the HFT boys. Today we had 0 notices filed for nil oz.

And now for the wild silver comex results.  Silver OI rose by 1278 contracts from 162,740 up to 164,018 with silver down by 15 cents with respect to Tuesday’s trading. We are now in the active contract month of March and here the OI fell by 257 contracts down to 1,136. We had 200 contracts served yesterday. Thus we lost 47 contracts or 235,000 oz will not stand.  The estimated volume today was poor at 12,603 contracts  (just comex sales during regular business hours. The confirmed volume yesterday was fair (regular plus access market) at 44,654 contracts. We had 39 notices filed for 195,000 oz today.

March initial standings

 

March 4.2015

Gold

Ounces

Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz   nil
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz nil
No of oz served (contracts) today 0 contracts (nil oz)
No of oz to be served (notices)  153 contracts (15,300 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month 1 contracts(100 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawals  of gold from the Dealers inventory this month

Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month

 16,590.00 oz

Today, we had 0 dealer transactions

 

 

total dealer withdrawal: nil oz

 

 

we had 0 dealer deposits:

 

 

 

we had 0 customer withdrawals

 

 

total customer withdrawal: nil oz

 

 

we had 0 customer deposit:

total customer deposits;  nil  oz

 

We had 0 adjustment

 

 

 

 

 

Today, 0 notices was issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 0 contracts of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan dealer and 0 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan customer account.

To calculate the total number of gold ounces standing for the March contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1) x 100 oz  or  100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of March (153) and the number of notices served upon today (0) x 100 oz equals the number of ounces standing.

 

Thus the initial standings for gold for the March contract month:

 

No of notices served so far (1) x 100 oz  or ounces + {OI for the front month (153) – the number of  notices served upon today (0) x 100 oz} =  15,400 oz or .4790 tonnes

 

we lost 900 oz of gold that will not stand in this March contract month.

 

 

Total dealer inventory: 814,793,315 oz or 25.34 tonnes

Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) = 8.385 million oz. (260.08) tonnes)

 

Several weeks ago we had total gold inventory of 303 tonnes, so during this short time period 43 tonnes have been net transferred out. However I believe that the gold that enters the gold comex is not real.  I cannot see continual additions of strictly kilobars.

 

 

end

 

 

 

And now for silver

 

March silver initial standings

March 4 2015:

Silver

Ounces

Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory 211,816.530 oz (CNT,Scotia)
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory   nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory 592,542.700  oz (Scotia)
No of oz served (contracts) 39 contracts  (195,000 oz)
No of oz to be served (notices) 1097 contracts (5,485,000)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 1632 contracts (8,160,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
Total accumulative withdrawal  of silver from the Customer inventory this month  525,445.4 oz

Today, we had 0 deposit into the dealer account:

 

 

total dealer deposit: nil   oz

 

we had 0 dealer withdrawal:

total dealer withdrawal: nil oz

 

We had 1 customer deposit:

 

i) Into Scotia: 592,542.700 oz

 

total customer deposit: 592,542.700 oz

 

We had 2 customer withdrawals:

 

i) Out of CNT:  151,088.660 oz

ii) Out of Scotia: 60,727.87  oz

 

 

total customer withdrawal: 211,816.530  oz

 

we had 0 adjustment

 

 

Total dealer inventory: 68.850 million oz

Total of all silver inventory (dealer and customer) 177.79 million oz

.

The total number of notices filed today is represented by 39 contracts for 195,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in March, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at (1632) x 5,000 oz    = 8,160,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of March (1136) and the number of notices served upon today (39) x 5000 oz  equals the number of ounces standing.

 

Thus the initial standings for silver for the March contract month:

1632 (notices served so far) + { OI for front month of March (1136) -number of notices served upon today (39} x 5000 oz =  13,645,000 oz standing for the March contract month.

 

we lost 47 contracts or 235,000 oz will not stand for delivery in March.

 

 

for those wishing to see the rest of data today see:

http://www.harveyorgan.wordpress.com orhttp://www.harveyorganblog.com

 

end

 

 

The two ETF’s that I follow are the GLD and SLV. You must be very careful in trading these vehicles as these funds do not have any beneficial gold or silver behind them. They probably have only paper claims and when the dust settles, on a collapse, there will be countless class action lawsuits trying to recover your lost investment.

There is now evidence that the GLD and SLV are paper settling on the comex.

***I do not think that the GLD will head to zero as we still have some GLD shareholders who think that gold is the right vehicle to be in even though they do not understand the difference between paper gold and physical gold. I can visualize demand coming to the buyers side:

i) demand from paper gold shareholders

ii) demand from the bankers who then redeem for gold to send this gold onto China

vs no sellers of GLD paper.

 

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD:

 

March 4/ no change/inventory 760.80 tonnes

 

March 3 we had another 2.69 tonnes of gold withdrawn from the GLD. Inventory is now 760.80 tonnes.

 

March 2  we had 7.76 tonnes of withdrawal from the GLD today and this physical gold landed in Shanghai/Inventory 763.49 tonnes

 

feb 27.2015 no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory at 771.25 tonnes

 

 

Feb 26. no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory at 771.25 tonnes

Feb 25. no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory at 771.25 tonnes

 

Feb 24.2015: no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory at 771.25 tonnes

 

Feb 23.2015: no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory at 771.25 tonnes

 

 

Feb 20/we had another good addition of 1.79 tonnes of gold into the GLD.  Inventory 771.25 tonnes

 

Feb 19/ a huge addition of 1.5 tonnes of gold into the GLD/Inventory 769.46

 

Feb 18/ a small withdrawal of .3 tonnes/no doubt to pay for fees/Inventory 767.96 tonnes

 

Feb 17/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory 768.26 tonnes

 

 

 

 

 

 

March 4/2015 / no change in inventory

inventory: 760.80 tonnes.

The registered vaults at the GLD will eventually become a crime scene as real physical gold departs for eastern shores leaving behind paper obligations to the remaining shareholders. There is no doubt in my mind that GLD has nowhere near the gold that say they have and this will eventually lead to the default at the LBMA and then onto the comex in a heartbeat (same banks).

GLD : 760.80 tonnes.

 

 

end

 

 

And now for silver (SLV):

 

March 4 a slight reduction of  126,000 oz of silver/SLV inventory at 725.992 (probably to pay for fees)

 

March 3 a small deposit of 328,000 oz of silver into the SLV/Inventory at 726.118 million oz.

 

March 2/ no change in silver inventory tonight; 725.734 million oz

 

 

Feb 27.2015 no change in silver inventory tonight: 725.734 million oz

 

 

Feb 26. no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory at 725.734 million oz

 

 

Feb 25. no changes in silver inventory/SLV inventory at 725.734 million oz

Feb 24.we had an addition of 1.435 million oz of silver to the SLV/SLV inventory at 725.734 million oz

 

Feb 23 no change in silver inventory/324.299 million oz

Feb 20 no change in silver inventory/324.299 million oz

 

Fen 19/ we had a huge addition of 4.082 million oz of silver into the SLV/Inventory 324.299 million oz

 

 

Feb 18.2015/ no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory at 320.327 million oz

 

Feb 17 no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory at 320.327 million oz

 

 

 

 

March 4/2015   a small reduction of 128,000 oz of silver into the SLV/SLV inventory registers: 325.992 million oz

 

 

 

 

 

end

 

 

 

 

And now for our premiums to NAV for the funds I follow:

Note: Sprott silver fund now for the first time into the negative to NAV

Sprott and Central Fund of Canada.
(both of these funds have 100% physical metal behind them and unencumbered and I can vouch for that)

 

 

1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative  6.7% percent to NAV in usa funds and Negative 7.0% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!!!!!

Percentage of fund in gold 61.5%

Percentage of fund in silver:38.0%

cash .5%

 

( March 4/2015)

 

Sprott gold fund finally rising in NAV

 

Sprott NAV not available at press time/I will adjust later tonight.

 

2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): Premium to NAV falls to + 2.70%!!!!! NAV (March 4/2015)

3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV falls to +.30% to NAV(March 4  /2015)

Note: Sprott silver trust back  into positive territory at +2.70%.

Sprott physical gold trust is back into positive territory at +.30%

Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail.

 

 

 

 

And now for the important paper stories for today:

 

 

Early Wednesday morning trading from Europe/Asia

 

 

1. Stocks mostly lower on major Asian bourses  / the  yen rises  to 119.60

1b Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/ yuan strengthens  to 6.2712
2 Nikkei down 111.56 or 0.59%

3. Europe stocks mostly lower  // USA dollar index up to 95.67/

3b Japan 10 year yield huge rise to .41%/ (Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 119.60/everybody watching the huge support levels of 117.20 and that level acting as a catapult for the markets.

3c Nikkei still  above 17,000/

3e The USA/Yen rate still  below the 120 barrier this morning/
3fOil: WTI 50.77 Brent: 60.60 /all eyes are focusing on oil prices. This should cause major defaults as derivatives blow up.

3g/ Gold up /yen up;

3h/ Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion usa dollars worth of bonds per MONTH or $1.3 trillion

Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa/thus bond purchases of 26% of GDP

3i Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt (see Von Greyerz)

3j Oil up this morning for  WTI  and down for Brent

3k Surprise rate cut in India as global economy contracts

3l  Greek 10 year bond yield :9.51% (up 2 basis points in yield)

3m Gold at $1205.50 dollars/ Silver: $16.33

3n USA vs Russian rouble:  ( Russian rouble  up 1/2  rouble / dollar in value)  61.63!!!!!!.

3 0  oil  into the 50 dollar handle for WTI and 60 handle for Brent

3p  More easing in China/also they are trying to lessen their real estate bubble

3Q  SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again driving down the SF/window dressing/Swiss rumours of intervention to keep the  soft peg at 1.05 Swiss Francs/euro and major support for the Euro.

3r  USA justice department investigating 10 major USA banks in the manipulation of gold and silver pricing

3s  European service PMI coming in lower than expected/bourses lower

3t   Some Greek treasury bills may not roll over today/Greece may ask for larger treasury bill limit

4. USA 10 yr treasury bond at 2.13% early this morning. Thirty year rate well below 3%  (2.72%!!!!)/yield curve flattens/foreshadowing recession
5. Details: Ransquawk, Bloomberg/Deutsche bank Jim Reid

 

Market Wrap: Futures Slide Despite Latest Central Bank Easing Blitz

 

Just like yesterday, it has – so far – been mostly about Asia in the overnight session, where as reported previously, we got the latest central bank engaging in an “unexpected” rate cut, after Reserve Bank of India Governor Rajan cut rates in an unscheduled move days after the government agreed for the first time to give the central bank a legal mandate to target inflation. This was India’s second rate cut in 2 months, and yet despite the Sensex surging to a all time high over 30,000, it subsequently ended up closing red on the day, down -0.7%, despite the Indian currency sliding 0.4% to 62.1463 to a dollar. Is the half-life of thany incremental rate cut in an unprecedented barage of global central bank easing now less than a day?

It wasn’t only India: next door in China, the PBOC increased the maximum amount of overnight and 7-day loans that its local branches can provide to financial institutions by 220 billion yuan.  Cumulative amount PBOC’s local branches can provide in overnight and 7-day loans is now 340b yuan, according to Bloomberg. Banks that meet “prudent” lending criteria set by the PBOC may obtain overnight loans at 4.5% and 7-day loans at 5.5%, in yet another gentle attempt to ease the monetary situatin and slow down the bursting of the domestic housing bubble.

Completely the Asia roundup, as Bloomberg’s Richard Breslow writes, the “news overnight from Asia adds more fuel to the question whether Asia is stalling, with Taiwanese IP weak and Australia’s slowing q/q growth putting a rate cut back on table.” We would add how much longer can the dreaded global “D” word be avoided when it is clear that everyone but the Fed is now desperate to avoid deflation.

Shifting west, after opening in the green, European equities have swung between gains and losses, this follows on from negative closes out of the US and Asia with Services PMIs from around Europe and the UK coming out below expectation (Eurozone Service PMI 53.7 vs. Exp. 53.9, Prev. 53.9 & UK Services PMI 56.7 vs Exp. 57.5, Prev. 57.2). On a sector specific basis, material names are underperforming in Europe after Fresnillio (-5.0%) reported negative earnings pre market. Weakness in equities has seen Bunds and USTs recover from earlier position squaring ahead of upcoming key risk events, namely ADP today, ECB rate decision on Thursday and NFP on Friday.

In FX markets, the USD index printed fresh 11 year highs after breaking out of its tight overnight range and through 95.5 to the upside, while resistance could come in the form of the 50% retracement from the 2001 high to the 2008 low at 95.859. The strength seen in the greenback weighed on both EUR/USD and GBP/USD, with the EUR reaching an 11 year low, while both EUR and GBP have seen weakness after the aforementioned Services PMI readings.

Elsewhere, NZD/USD trades at session highs amid no fundamental news after breaking through its 50DMA of 0.7572 to the upside and above yesterday’s highs. Meanwhile, ahead of today’s BoC rate decisions, CAD has weakened, with the move attributed to USD strength as the central bank are expected by most surveyed analysts to keep rates on hold. During Asia hours, RBI unexpectedly cut its Repo and Reverse Repo rates by 25bps to 7.5% and 6.5% respectively, with Goldman Sachs bringing forward expectations of possible rate cut by the Indian central bank from April by a month.

WTI crude futures resides in positive territory to outperform Brent heading into the NYMEX pit open after yesterday’s API inventory showed a build of 2900k, substantially less than last week’s 8900k build. This comes ahead of DoE inventories today, expected at 3950k (Prev. 8427k), while comments from Saudi oil minister Al-Naimi had no effect on markets, failing to add any new rhetoric. NatGas outperforms in the energy complex as a consequence of cold weather in the US. Finally in terms of the metals complex, gold has traded mildly higher overnight, coming off its best levels heading into the North American cross over, with the safe-haven supported amid a bout of weakness seen across global equity markets.

In Summary: European shares stay lower, close to intraday lows, with the basic resources and chemicals sectors underperforming and autos, telco outperforming. Euro-area composite PMI, U.K. services PMI below estimates.  U.K. wins court ruling on ECB policy on Euro clearinghouses. India cuts interest rate in surprise move. Obama extends sanctions against Russian officials over Ukraine. The Swedish and Spanish markets are the worst-performing larger bourses, the Swiss the best. The euro is weaker against the dollar. Japanese 10yr bond yields rise; German yields increase. Commodities decline, with wheat, soybeans underperforming and natural gas outperforming. U.S. ISM non-manufacturing, mortgage applications, ADP employment change, Markit U.S. composite PMI, Markit U.S. services PMI,  due later.

Market Wrap

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 2097.5
  • Stoxx 600 down 0.2% to 387.1
  • US 10Yr yield up 1bps to 2.13%
  • German 10Yr yield up 1bps to 0.37%
  • MSCI Asia Pacific down 0.6% to 145.6
  • Gold spot up 0% to $1204.4/oz
  • Eurostoxx 50 -0.2%, FTSE 100 -0.4%, CAC 40 -0%, DAX -0.4%, IBEX -0.7%, FTSEMIB -0.3%, SMI +0.3%
  • Asian stocks fall with the Shanghai Composite outperforming and the Hang Seng underperforming.
  • MSCI Asia Pacific down 0.6% to 145.6
  • Nikkei 225 down 0.6%, Hang Seng down 1%, Kospi down 0.2%, Shanghai Composite up 0.5%, ASX down 0.5%, Sensex down 0.7%
  • Euro down 0.47% to $1.1124
  • Dollar Index up 0.34% to 95.71
  • Italian 10Yr yield down 2bps to 1.38%
  • Spanish 10Yr yield down 2bps to 1.37%
  • French 10Yr yield up 0bps to 0.67%
  • S&P GSCI Index down 0.1% to 416.7
  • Brent Futures down 0.5% to $60.7/bbl, WTI Futures up 0.5% to $50.8/bbl
  • LME 3m Copper down 0.1% to $5816/MT
  • LME 3m Nickel down 0% to $13670/MT
  • Wheat futures down 0.9% to 501.3 USd/bu

Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk and Bloomberg

  • European equities have swung between gains and losses with Services PMIs from around Europe and the UK coming out below expectation
  • The USD index printed fresh 11 year highs to weigh on both EUR/USD and GBP/USD, with EUR reaching 11 year lows
  • Looking ahead, this afternoon sees US ADP Employment Change, Services PMI, ISM Non-Manf. Composite and DoE Crude oil Inventories, as well as the BoC rate decision and a host of Fed speakers
  • Treasuries steady before ADP Employment, est. +219 vs +213 in Jan.; U.S./Germany 10Y spread near widest since May 1989 before Draghi’s expected release of QE details at tomorrow’s ECB meeting.
  • Reserve Bank of India Governor Rajan cut rates in an unscheduled move days after the government agreed for the first time to give the central bank a legal mandate to target inflation
  • Britain scored a rare victory in its bid to challenge EU powers over the City of London as EU judges sided with the U.K. in a clash with the European Central Bank on clearinghouses
  • Investors are paying to hold covered bonds as ECB stimulus pushes yields on EU21.3b ($24 billion) of the highly rated debt below zero
  • Yellen, countering criticism from members of Congress, said the Fed is trying to avoid being too cozy with the Wall Street firms it supervises and wants to ensure that regulators aren’t afraid to confront the financial industry
  • RBS may cut more than 2/3 of its investment-bank jobs as part of a plan to shrink the securities unit and focus on the U.K. consumer market, a person with knowledge of the matter said
  • U.K. Conservatives led in a third straight poll of voting intentions as their coalition partners, the Liberal Democrats, sank to a 25-year low with just over two months to go until the general election
  • Sovereign 10Y yields higher. Asian, European stocks stocks fall; U.S. equity-index futures decline. Crude, gold and copper steady

 

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight recap

 

 

This week hasn’t really got going yet but it’s set to liven up today and as we move towards the weekend. ADP employment data and the Greek T-bill auction are the main events before we see the China National People’s Congress meeting tomorrow along with the ECB meeting and then payrolls on Friday. As we write this the Indian central bank has added to the list of surprise rate cuts this year with only 3 out of 15 polled on Bloomberg expecting the move. More on this later.

As mentioned the Greek T-Bill auction will be worth keeping an eye on today. The nation has a €1.4bn maturity due on Friday along with a €300m repayment due to the IMF. DB’s George Saravelos noted that the portion of the bill held by foreigners (c. €800m) may be unwilling to roll over and so potentially raise the risk that the auction does not generate the necessary amount to cover Friday’s maturity. This, combined with reluctance by the ECB to raise the cap on T-Bill issuance, will likely place the government under considerable near term pressure. It’s likely that we hear the first request from the Greek government to the ECB to increase the T-Bill issuance cap at the Eurogroup meeting next Monday. However it remains to been seen whether or not the ECB is willing to comply and instead we heard earlier suggestions from the EC’s Dijsselbloem that Europe may be willing to allow for an early disbursement of the final tranche should conditions be agreed upon. On this, Greek press Ekathimerini reported yesterday that finance minister Varoufakis is due to present a collection of six reform proposals to Eurogroup ministers on Monday. The report also claims that Varoufakis is likely to be prepared to discuss what privatizations the government is willing to carry out with suggestions that he is in favour of further private investment at the Piraeus Port and in the Greek railway. This appears to conflict with comments from other Greek government officials however with the state minister in particular saying that the coalition would not consider selling Greece’s water or electricity assets.

Recapping the market moves yesterday, it was a relatively subdued day on the whole culminating in equity markets in the US retreating from recent highs. The S&P 500 finished -0.45% at the close. Aside from a better day for energy stocks (+0.23%) following gains for WTI (+1.88%) and Brent (+2.49%) – which in turn appeared to rise on geopolitical concerns in Libya – losses were generally broad based across sectors. In terms of data, readings on the whole were largely mixed. The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism index for March rose 1.6pts to 49.1 (vs. 47.8 expected) and the lesser-followed ISM NY firmed over 18pts to 63.1. Vehicle sales disappointed however. The 16.16m saar for February was down versus both consensus (16.7m) and also from the January reading (16.56m). Treasury yields rose for the second consecutive day meanwhile. Both 10y (+3.7bps) and 2y (+1.6bps) yields climbed to 2.119% and 0.678% respectively. The latter is in fact now at its highs in yield for the year. Elsewhere, the Dollar was largely unchanged.

It was a day of rising bond yields in Europe also yesterday. Indeed, 10y benchmark yields in Germany (+0.7bps) and France (+3.0bps) both rose whilst peripherals fared little better with yields 4-6bps wider generally. With newsflow relatively light yesterday, the market appears to be in something of a wait and see mode ahead of the ECB this Thursday. Macro data was also relatively light, however retail sales out of Germany provided something for the market to digest. The +5.3% print was in fact up half a percent from the December print and also came in well ahead of expectations of +3.0%. The reading was also the highest since June 2010 and marked a fourth consecutive monthly increase which has only happened four times since 1994. Despite a modest rise in Bund yields yesterday, the yield curve is still trading in negative territory up until the 6-year bucket which is in stark contrast to the relatively solid macro data releases we’ve seen out of the nation of late. Elsewhere, PPI for the Euro-area continues to be subdued with the -3.4% yoy reading below market (-3.0% yoy).

Yesterday’s data did little to help equity markets in Europe with the Stoxx 600 in particular extending its weaker start to March closing -0.92% and led by Banks (-1.55%) and Autos (-2.08%) in particular. Credit markets on the other hand closed a touch firmer with Xover tightening 2bps. In fact primary markets appeared to be the one area of decent appetite yesterday. Interestingly, in Europe the Icelandic Bank Arion issued the first bond by an Icelandic bank in Euro’s since the collapse of its domestic banking sector. The 3-year senior bonds were priced at a yield of 3.24%. In fact glancing across peripheral bank debt, similar maturity senior Bank of Ireland bonds are trading at 1.1% and Monte dei Paschi bonds are 2.2%, which is of course in stark contrast to their counterparts in Greece where 2-year senior Piraeus Bank debt is trading north of 15%. Elsewhere, the other headline in credit markets yesterday centered around the record bond sale by US drug-maker Actavis (BBB- rated). The $21bn of bonds sold by the corporate yesterday as part of its M&A financing was in fact the second largest corporate debt raising ever. Clearly there was little issue around appetite for the deal with Bloomberg reporting that there was around $90bn of orders across the structure.

Just wrapping up yesterday’s news, Ukraine was of some attention yesterday following the news that the nation’s Central Bank raised its main benchmark rate by 10.5% to 30% – the highest benchmark rate globally. The rate is in fact up from 14% just a month ago and 6.5% this time last year. Governor Gontareva was reported on Bloomberg saying that the move was to ‘stabilize the situation on the money and lending markets’ with the nation suffering from rising inflationary issues (+28.5% yoy as of January) and a depreciating currency. The move appeared to provide some support to the Ukrainian Hryvnia, with the currency bouncing 8.5% versus the Dollar

Taking a look at the early morning trading in Asia, bourses are generally following the US lead and trading lower as we type. The Nikkei (-0.64%), Shanghai Comp (-0.17%) and Hang Seng (-0.31%) in particular are weaker. The exception is in India where the Nifty (+0.83%) and Sensex (+0.99%) are sharply higher after the surprise rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India. The Central Bank has cut the benchmark repurchase rate by 25bps cut 7.5%, marking the second easing this year.

In terms of today’s calendar, as mentioned focus this morning in Europe will be on the Greek t-bill auction whilst away from that attention will be on the PMI readings where we get the final February services and composite prints for the Euro-area, Germany and France as well as the first readings for Italy, Spain and the UK. Also due up this morning are retail sales for the Euro-area. This afternoon in the US, as well as well the ADP employment reading we get the final services and composite PMI readings as well as the ISM non-manufacturing reading and the release of the Fed Beige Book. So it does feel the week will heat up a little after a dullish start.

 

 

end

 

In a surprise move the Central Bankof India cut its interest rate a second time in two months.  Another indicator of the global economic contraction.

 

(courtesy zero hedge)

 

 

India Central Bank Cuts Interest Rate “Pre-Emptively” For Second Time In 2 Months

 

In a surprise move, the RBI just cut its main interest rates for the second time in two months, taking it from 6.75% to 6.50%, in what the central bank calls a “pre-emptive” policy move, but what is in reality merely a confirmation that so far in 2015 at least 20 central banks have lowered their interest rate.

From the statement:

The RBI notes that the rupee has remained strong relative to peer countries. While an excessively strong rupee is undesirable, it too creates disinflationary impulses… 

…softer readings on inflation are expected to come in through the first half of 2015-16 before firming up to below 6 per cent in the second half. The fiscal consolidation programme, while delayed, may compensate in quality, especially if state governments are cooperative. Given low capacity utilisation and still-weak indicators of production and credit off-take, it is appropriate for the Reserve Bank to be pre-emptive in its policy action to utilise available space for monetary accommodation. 

Via Bloomberg:

  • INDIA’S RBI CUTS RATE TO 7.5%
  • INDIA CUTS REVERSE REPURCHASE RATE TO 6.50% FROM 6.75%
  • RBI KEEPS CASH RESERVE RATIO OF SCHEDULED BANKS UNCHANGED AT 4%
  • INDIAN RUPEE ONE-MONTH FORWARDS EXTEND GAIN AS RBI CUTS RATE
  • RAJAN SAYS FURTHER MONETARY ACTION TO DEPEND ON INCOME DATA
  • RBI: DISINFLATION EVOLVING AT FASTER RATE THAN ENVISAGED

…and more from Reuters:

Both rate cuts this year have took place outside of the central bank’s scheduled policy review meetings.

The rate cut marks a vote of faith in the government, which on Saturday pledged to be fiscally responsible but said it would take an additional year to meet a fiscal deficit target of 3 percent of gross domestic product.

Full statement from the RBI

* * *

Here is the full list of the 20 central rate cuts so far in 2015:

 

1. Jan. 1 UZBEKISTAN

Uzbekistan’s central bank cuts its refinancing rate to 9 percent from 10 percent.

2. Jan. 7/Feb. 4 ROMANIA

Romania’s central bank cuts its key interest rate by a total of 50 basis points, taking it to a new record low of 2.25 percent. Most analysts polled by Reuters had expected the latest cut.

3. Jan. 15 SWITZERLAND

The Swiss National Bank stuns markets by scrapping the franc’s three-year-old exchange rate cap to the euro, leading to an unprecedented surge in the currency. This de facto tightening, however, is in part offset by a cut in the interest rate on certain sight deposit account balances by 0.5 percentage points to -0.75 percent.

4. Jan. 15 EGYPT

Egypt’s central bank makes a surprise 50 basis point cut in its main interest rates, reducing the overnight deposit and lending rates to 8.75 and 9.75 percent, respectively.

5. Jan. 16 PERU

Peru’s central bank surprises the market with a cut in its benchmark interest rate to 3.25 percent from 3.5 percent after the country posts its worst monthly economic expansion since 2009.

6. Jan. 20 TURKEY

Turkey’s central bank lowers its main interest rate, but draws heavy criticism from government ministers who say the 50 basis point cut, five months before a parliamentary election, is not enough to support growth.

7. Jan. 21 CANADA

The Bank of Canada shocks markets by cutting interest rates to 0.75 percent from 1 percent, where it had been since September 2010, ending the longest period of unchanged rates in Canada since 1950.

8. Jan. 22 EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK

The ECB launches a government bond-buying programme which will pump over a trillion euros into a sagging economy starting in March and running through to September next year, and perhaps beyond.

9. Jan. 24 PAKISTAN

Pakistan’s central bank cuts its key discount rate to 8.5 percent from 9.5 percent, citing lower inflationary pressure due to falling global oil prices. Central Bank Governor Ashraf Wathra says the new rate will be in place for two months, until the next central bank meeting to discuss further policy.

10. Jan. 28 SINGAPORE

The Monetary Authority of Singapore unexpectedly eases policy, saying in an unscheduled policy statement that it will reduce the slope of its policy band for the Singapore dollar because the inflation outlook has “shifted significantly” since its last review in October 2014.

11. Jan. 28 ALBANIA
Albania’s central bank cuts its benchmark interest rate to a record low 2 percent. This follows three rate cuts last year, the most recent in November.

12. Jan. 30 RUSSIA
Russia’s central bank unexpectedly cuts its one-week minimum auction repo rate by two percentage points to 15 percent, a little over a month after raising it by 6.5 points to 17 percent, as fears of recession mount following the fall in global oil prices and Western sanctions over the Ukraine crisis.

13. Feb. 3 AUSTRALIA
The Reserve Bank of Australia cuts its cash rate to an all-time low of 2.25 percent, seeking to spur a sluggish economy while keeping downward pressure on the local dollar.

14. Feb. 4/28 CHINA
China’s central bank makes a system-wide cut to bank reserve requirements — its first in more than two years — to unleash a flood of liquidity to fight off economic slowdown and looming deflation. On Feb. 28, the People’s Bank of China cut its interest rate by 25 bps, when it lowered its one-year lending rate to 5.35% from 5.6% and its one-year deposit rate to 2.5% from 2.75%. It also said it would raise the maximum interest rate on bank deposits to 130% of the benchmark rate from 120%.

15. Jan. 19/22/29/Feb. 5 DENMARK
The Danish central bank cuts interest rates a remarkable four times in less than three weeks, and intervenes regularly in the currency market to keep the crown within the narrow range of its peg to the euro.

16. Feb. 13 SWEDEN
Sweden’s central bank cut its key repo rate to -0.1 percent from zero where it had been since October, and said it would buy 10 billion Swedish crowns worth of bonds

17. February 17, INDONESIA
Indonesia’s central bank unexpectedly cut its main interest rate for the first time in three years

18. February 18, BOTSWANA
The Bank of Botswana reduced its benchmark interest rate for the first time in more than a year to help support the economy as inflation pressures ease.
The rate was cut by 1 percentage point to 6.5 percent, the first adjustment since Oct. 2013, the central bank said in an e-mailed statement on Wednesday.

19. February 23, ISRAEL

The Bank of Israel reduced its interest rate by 0.15 percentage points, to 0.10 percent in order to stimulate a return of the inflation rate to within the price stability target of 1–3 percent a year over the next twelve months, and to support growth while maintaining financial stability.

20. Jan. 15, March 3, INDIA

The Reserve Bank of India surprises markets with a 25 basis point cut in rates to 7.75 percent and signals it could lower them further, amid signs of cooling inflation and growth struggling to recover from its weakest levels since the 1980s. Then on March 3, it followed through on its promise and indeed cut rates one more time, this time to 7.50%

 

 

end

 

Japanese Service PMI tumbles sending the Nikkei lower.

More evidence of the global economy contracting!1

 

(courtesy zero hedge)

 

 

Japanese Bonds & Stocks Drop As Services PMI Tumbles Into Contraction

 

After three hopeful months of greater-than-50 prints for Japanese Services PMI, February saw it plunge back into contraction with a considerably worse than expected 48.5 print. This drags the overall composite PMI for Japan to 50.0, its weakest reading in 4 months as New Orders drop to May 2014 lows and employment craters to its lowest since Oct 2012. On the heels of last night’s weak JGB auction and sell-off in stocks on relatively hawkish comments from economists, tonight is seeing more of the same as the Nikkei 225 is having the worst 2 days in 2 months and JGB yields are jumping once again. Abegeddon is back…

 

Japan Services PMI worst since April…

 

Stocks… worst 2-day drop in 2 months – first 2 days in a row drop this year!!

But as we know, a weak morning session in Japan will bring the BoJ stock ETF buying program into action stat…

and bonds plunging…

 

This comes after the biggest surge in wages since 2000 – suggesting the BoJ’s days of insanity are perhaps limited

 

 

end

 

The Chinese have put out billboard ads announcing the renminbi as the new world currency

 

 

by Simon Black on March 4, 2015

China-rmb-world-currency

March 4, 2015
Bangkok, Thailand

When I arrived to Bangkok the other day, coming down the motorway from the airport I saw a huge billboard—and it floored me.

The billboard was from the Bank of China. It said: “RMB: New Choice; The World Currency”

Given that the Bank of China is more than 70% owned by the government of the People’s Republic of China, I find this very significant.

It means that China is literally advertising its currency overseas, and it’s making sure that everyone landing at one of the world’s busiest airports sees it. They know that the future belongs to them and they’re flaunting it.

And it’s true. The renminbi’s importance in global trade and as a reserve currency is increasing exponentially, with renminbi trading hubs popping up all over the world, from Singapore to London to Luxembourg to Frankfurt to Toronto.

Multinational companies such as McDonald’s are now issuing bonds in renminbi, and even sovereign governments are issuing debt denominated in renminbi, including the UK.

Almost every major global player out there, be it governments or major multinationals, is positioning itself for the renminbi to become the dominant reserve currency.

But here’s the thing. Nothing goes up and down in a straight line. And China is in deep trouble right now.The economy is slowing down and the enormous debt bubble is starting to burst.

A lot of people, including the richest man in Asia, are starting to move their money out of the country.

So while the long-term trend is pretty clear – China becoming the dominant economic and financial superpower – the short-term is going to look incredibly rocky.

We talk about this in today’s short podcast with Sovereign Man’s Chief Investment Strategist, Tim Staermose, which includes a few ways to actually make money from China’s short-term unwinding.

Have a listen here: http://www.sovereignman.com/podcast/034-heres-exactly-how-you-can-profit-from-chinas-short-term-unwinding-16312/

 

 

 

As reported yesterday, Greece is set to raid the social security capital in order to fund the T Bill rollover as well as pay the IMF.  This funding is suppose to be temporary.  If they cannot find replacements then there is going to be very angry pensioners.

 

Also the auction for the Greek treasury bills went well.  However the auction had no foreign component to it and only Greek  Social Security funds which propped it up.  Looks to be like trouble is brewing here!

 

(courtesy zero hedge)

 

Greece Said To Tap Social Security Capital To Fund T-Bill Rollover

 

 

As reported over the past two days, in order to fund the payment on various imminent debt maturities to the IMF, the cash-strapped Greek government has been forced to consider, among other things, raiding Greek pension to procure the required funds. We noted yesterday, citing Reuters, that Greece will use short-term repo transactions to transfer the cash, but one government official said they could not be used to repay the IMF.

Greece is tapping into the cash reserves of pension funds and public sector entities through repo transactions as it scrambles to cover its funding needs this month, debt officials told Reuters on Tuesday…. At least part of the state’s cash needs for the month will be met by repo transactions in which pension funds and other state entities sitting on cash lend the money to the country’s debt agency through a short-term repurchase agreement for up to 15 days, debt agency officials told Reuters

“Repo” because the implication is that this funding need is temporary. Of course, should it provde to be anything but, the local population will promptly exhibit very angry tendencies once it is revealed that the “radical left” government plundered Greek pensions to pay the IMF which could then immediately turn around and use the fund to pay the Kiev government, which in turn could pay Putin to keep the gas running. Where Greece will find an additional source of funds to replace this Pension “repo” was not quite clear as of this writing.

Which brings us to the Greek T-Bill rollover auction this morning: an auction which as DB’s Jim Reid summarized is one of the two main events of the day, as follows:

As mentioned the Greek T-Bill auction will be worth keeping an eye on today. The nation has a €1.4bn maturity due on Friday along with a €300m repayment due to the IMF. DB’s George Saravelos noted that the portion of the bill held by foreigners (c. €800m) may be unwilling to roll over and so potentially raise the risk that the auction does not generate the necessary amount to cover Friday’s maturity. This, combined with reluctance by the ECB to raise the cap on T-Bill issuance, will likely place the government under considerable near term pressure. It’s likely that we hear the first request from the Greek government to the ECB to increase the T-Bill issuance cap at the Eurogroup meeting next Monday. However it remains to been seen whether or not the ECB is willing to comply and instead we heard earlier suggestions from the EC’s Dijsselbloem that Europe may be willing to allow for an early disbursement of the final tranche should conditions be agreed upon.

Well, the rollover auction came, and it was successful, even if it means the yield on the paper rose from 2.75% previously to 2.97% – the highest yield in 11 months, since the 3.01% in April of 2014. Kathimerini had the full breakdown:

Greece sold 1.138 billion euros ($1.27 billion) of six-month Treasury bills on Wednesday, covering the amount it wanted to refinance a maturing issue, in a sale that tested the country’s ability to raise funds amid a cash crunch. But for Athens the funds came at a higher cost. The T-bills were priced to yield 2.97 percent, up 22 basis points from 2.75 percent in a previous sale in February, the country’s debt agency PDMA said.

The sale’s bid-cover ratio was 1.30, unchanged from the previous sale in February and showing no deterioration in demand despite tight liquidity conditions

 

The amount raised included 262.5 million euros in non-competitive bids. The settlement date for Wednesday’s auction will be March 6.

 

Issuing T-bills is the only source of commercial borrowing for the leftist government of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras but the country’s EU/IMF creditors have set a 15 billion euro cap on such issues, which has already been hit.

The problem is when looking at where the funds came from: as Bloomberg reported, also citing Kathimerini, today it was the turn of Greek Social Security funds to prop up the auction, with part of the reserves of other public entities held at Bank of Greece also used to cover the Treasury-bill auction.

Bloomberg adds that the “investment of common capital reserves was necessary as no foreign investors participated in auction, Greek banks couldn’t buy additional securities as they weren’t allowed to increase their exposure to Greek Treasury bills.” The biggest problem is that, as DB framed above,  about €750m of the T-bills maturing Friday were held by foreign investors who didn’t participate in today’s auction.

In other words, first the Greek government is contemplating using pensions to pay the IMF, and today had no choice but to use social security funds to rollover its debt maturities – a process which didn’t even raise any incremental money but merely kept total Greek leverage flat, in the process raiding some more of Greek entitlement funds.

How much longer, one wonders, can this continue without the population starting to ask very pointed questions?

 

 

end

 

Now its Poland’s turn to cut rates as the global economy sinks:

 

(courtesy zero hedge)

 

 

 

 

Poland Cuts Rates More Than Expected, 21st Central Bank “Policy Ease” Of The Year

 

Just hours after India’s ‘surprise’ rate cut (which saw the SENSEX surge and then dump to close red), Poland has surprised the market with a bigger-than-expected rate cut. Despite two-thirds of econmomists expecting a mere 25bps cut, the Polish Central Bank slashed its benchmarket 7-day rate to just 1.5% – the lowest on record. Today’s cut “makes up for inaction in previous months” after Poland held rate flat in January and February (but echoes Poland’s Oct ‘surprise’ greater-than-expected ease of 50bps. Polish stocks dropped on the news (but recovered), banks are weaker, and the Zloty is selling off on this news (pushing back towards record lows)

  • *POLISH CENTRAL BANK CUT LOMBARD RATE TO 2.5%
  • *POLISH CENTRAL BANK CUTS KEY INTEREST RATE TO 1.50%
  • *POLISH CENTRAL BANK CUTS DEPOSIT RATE TO 0.5%

 

Poland is seeing economic growth and disinflationary pressures leaving the Central Bank with a policy conundrum…

Poland’s economy expanded 3.1 percent from a year earlier in the fourth quarter.While that’s the slowest pace in 2014, it also capped the fastest full-year expansion in three years as deflation helped increase disposable incomes and consumer confidence.

 

After predicting inflation of 1.2 percent in 2015, it now believes consumer prices “will probably fall on average this year,”the ministry’s Chief Economist Ludwik Kotecki said on Feb. 25.

 

The 10-member Monetary Policy Council didn’t use the word “deflation” in its official statements until January, as Governor Marek Belka and other rate-setters predicted the decline in consumer prices wouldn’t be sustained or persist into 2015. In January, however, deflation deepened to 1.3 percent, more than analysts’ estimate and the 1 percent decline in December.

 

 

Policy makers were thus confronted with a conundrum, Belka told reporters on Feb. 4. While falling prices help boost consumption,“persistent deflation may be detrimental,” causing a textbook reaction to deflation. The governor stressed that Poland had “never experienced” deflation in its 25 years as a free-market economy and the potential negative consequences can’t be ruled out.

 

Belka lost two rate-cut motions in November by 4-6 margins after Elzbieta Chojna-Duch, who’d never failed to back monetary easing at a previous meetings which resulted in decisions, unexpectedly sided with the Council’s hawks. At subsequent news conferences, Belka reiterated that he saw room for more rate cuts. He needs at least a 5-5 deadlock to exercise his tie-breaking vote.

 

“The main consideration is persistent deflation, and the governor’s view will be crucial,” Chojna-Duch, the probable swing voter, said in an interview on Feb. 23.

And so today’s surprise cut is, as one analyst put it, is “making up for previous inaction,”

The Monetary Policy Council lowered its benchmark seven-day reference rate by 50 basis points to 1.5 percent, matching the prediction of 11 of 36 economists in a Bloomberg survey. Twenty-three analysts forecast a 25 basis-point reduction, while two predicted no change.

 

Rate setters have hesitated to join their global peers in monetary easing since they last cut borrowing costs by 50 basis points in October, in part because falling prices didn’t stall Poland’s economy.Opposition to rate cuts may have been overcome by the central bank’s latest staff projections, which will show price growth staying subdued much longer than previously forecast, according to Michal Dybula, chief economist at BNP Paribas SA in Warsaw.

 

“There’s no point in dragging out rate cuts as the economic outlook improves,”Dybula said by phone on Tuesday, before the decision. “Cutting more deeply makes up for the inaction of previous months.”

 

The central bank predicted inflation would average 1.1 percent on an annual basis this year in previous staff projections published in November. Most commercial banks have since revised their estimates and now see price growth below zero through at least the first half of 2015.

*  *  *

The reaction is weaker currency (though rallying back modestly)…

 

and the initial stock weakness has turned green

 

*  *  *

 

 

 

 

 

Oil related stories:

 

Crude falls back down as the DOE inventories rise!!

 

(courtesy zero hedge)

 

Crude Plunges On Biggest Weekly Inventory Build In 14 Years

 

So much for last night’s lower than expected API build, DOE data shows a massive build compared to the 3.95 mm barrels expected:

  • *CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES ROSE 10.30 MLN BARRELS, EIA SAYS

This is the 8th build in a row and biggest weekly inventory rise in 14 years.

 

 

This is the fastest inventory build EVER…

 

and WTI has broken back below $50…

 

Unambiguously good still?

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

 

end

 

 

 

Oil gets a small lift as ISIS attacks Iraq oil pipelines:

 

(courtesy zero hedge)

 

 

 

 

Oil Prices Rise As ISIS Attack Iraq Oil Pipelines

 

UPDATE: And now *YEMEN GUNMEN BLOW UP OIL PIPELINE IN SHABWA: ARABIYA

As oil prices started to slide this morning, following their pop on lower-than-expected API inventory build data, headlines crossed:

  • *ISLAMISTS ATTACK IRAQ OIL PIPELINES EAST OF TIKRIT: IRAQIYA

As we detailed yesterday, Tikrit is key, and this (unconfirmed for now) headline sent WTI and Brent up 40c per barrel (for now).

 

As Blkoomberg reports,

Islamic State militants burned pipelines in Tal Hasiba region east of central city of Tikrit, accord. to state-sponsored Iraqiya television, which didn’t say where it got information.

*  *  *

And the immediate reaction…

 

 

With ISIS suffering from lower cashflows (thanks to lower oil prices), we suspect their efforts to raise oil prices (by any means possible) will continue.

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

 

end

 

 

 

Your more important currency crosses early Wednesday morning:

 

 

 

Eur/USA 1.1129 down  .0054

USA/JAPAN YEN 119.60  down .037

GBP/USA 1.5346 down .0021

USA/CAN 1.2507 up .0024

 

This morning in Europe, the euro is down, trading now well below the 1.12 level at 1.1129 as Europe is supported by other nations keeping the Euro afloat,  Europe reacts to deflation, announcements of massive stimulation, falling bourses, the default at Austrian Hypo bank and the possible default of the Ukraine and Greece.   In Japan Abe went all in with Abenomics with another round of QE purchasing 80 trillion yen from 70 trillion on Oct 31. The yen continues to trade in yoyo fashion as this morning it settled up again in Japan by 4 basis points and settling just below the 120 barrier to 119.60 yen to the dollar. The pound was down this morning as it now  trades just below the 1.54 level at 1.5346.(very worried about the health of Barclays Bank and the FX/precious metals criminal investigation/Dec  12 a new separate criminal investigation on gold,silver oil manipulation and now the HSBC criminal probe). The Canadian dollar was down again despite  the higher oil price and is trading  at 1.2507 to the dollar. It seems that the 4 major global carry  trades are being unwound. (1) The total dollar global short is 9 trillion USA, and as such we now witness a sea of red blood on the streets as derivatives blow up with the massive rise in the dollar against all paper currencies.We also have the second big yen carry trade unwind as the yen refuses to blow past the 120 level.(3) the Nikkei vs gold carry trade. (4) short Swiss Franc/long assets  (European housing), the Nikkei, etc. These massive carry trades are terribly offside as they are being unwound. It is  causing deflation as the world reacts to a lack of demand. Bourses around the globe are reacting in kind to these events as well as the potential for a GREXIT.

The NIKKEI: Wednesday morning : down 111.56 points or 0.59%

Trading from Europe and Asia:
1. Europe stocks mostly in the red

2/ Asian bourses mostly in the red    … Chinese bourses: Hang Sang in the red ,Shanghai in the green,  Australia in the red: /Nikkei (Japan) red/India’s Sensex in the red/

Gold very early morning trading: $1205.50

silver:$16.33

 

Early Wednesday morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.13% !!!  up 1  in basis points from Tuesday night/

 

USA dollar index early Wednesday morning: 95.67  up 27 cents from Tuesday’s close.

 

 

This ends the early morning numbers, Wednesday morning

 

 

 

And now for your closing numbers for Wednesday:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Closing Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.89% down 4 in basis points from Tuesday

 

Closing Japanese 10 year bond yield: .41% !!! up 3 in basis points from Tuesday

 

Your closing Spanish 10 year government bond,  Wednesday down 3 in basis points in yield from Tuesday night.

 

Spanish 10 year bond yield: 1.36% !!!!!!

 

Your Wednesday closing Italian 10 year bond yield: 1.39% down 1 in basis points from Tuesday:

 

 

trading 3 basis points higher than  Spain.

 

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TODAY

 

Closing currency crosses for Wednesday night/USA dollar index/USA 10 yr bond:

Euro/USA: 1.1071  down .0114

USA/Japan: 119.73 up .100

Great Britain/USA: 1.5259 down .0108

USA/Canada: 1.2414 down .0070

 

 

The euro fell apart this afternoon as it was down  on the day by 114 basis points finishing the day just below the 1.11 level to 1.1071. The yen was up slightly in the afternoon, and it was up by closing to the tune of 10 basis points and closing well below the 120 cross at 119.73. The British pound lost huge ground during the afternoon session and was down on the day closing at 1.5259. The Canadian dollar was well up again today with oil also up.  It closed at 1.2414 to the USA dollar

As explained above, the short dollar carry trade is being unwound, the yen carry trade , the Nikkei/gold carry trade, and finally the long dollar/short Swiss franc carry trade are all being unwound and these reversals are  causing massive derivative losses. And as such these massive derivative losses is the powder keg that will destroy the entire financial system. The losses on the oil front will no doubt produce many dead bodies. The last asset still rising are the stock exchanges.

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield: 2.12 par in basis points from Tuesday

 

 

 

Your closing USA dollar index: 95.98 up 60 cents on the day.

 

 

European and Dow Jones stock index closes:

 

England FTSE  up 30.11 points or 0.44%

Paris CAC up 48.10 or 0.99%

German Dax up 110.02 or 0.98%

Spain’s Ibex up 36.60 or 0.33%

Italian FTSE-MIB up 143.90. or 0.65%

 

 

The Dow: down 106.47 or 0.58%

Nasdaq; down  12.76 or 0.26%

 

 

OIL: WTI 51.54 !!!!!!!

Brent: 60.52!!!!

 

 

Closing USA/Russian rouble cross: 61.94 down almost 1/4   roubles per dollar on the day.

 

 

 

 

end

 

 

 

And now for your more important USA economic stories for today:

 

 

 

Your New York trading for today:

 

Dow’s Worst Day Since January Despite Crude Buying Panic

 

Despite rate-cut-fest, and crude buying panic, stocks stumbled for the 2nd day in a row…

 

Stocks held steady through the Asia session despite a plethora of rate cuts (and shitty Japanese data) then legged lower on weak EU PMIs only to stumble hard on more misses and weakness in US data… that was followed by the now ubiquitous v-shaped recopvery that occurs when stockas fall anything more than 0.2%…

 

Despite all that, all major equity indices closed red…

 

Once again the S&P closes above the EU close price…with all the big action between the US open and EU close…

 

Only The Nasdaq is hoklding gains on the week with S&P underperforming…

 

Utilities fell once again  and are now down over 6% YTD while builder and biotech-ridden healthcare are up aroun 5-6%…

 

Treasury yields were mixed today – long end unch, 7Y and shorter 1-2bps drop in yield (but remain 10-13bps higher on the week)…

 

The USD surged today (first on Swissy comments battering the Franc) and more broadly on EUR weakness ahead of tomorrow’s ECB meeting…

 

as EURUSD tumbled to 1.1075 – the lowest since 2003…

 

Spot the odd commodity out… USD strength sent copper, gold, silver modestly lower…

 

And Crude went total Algo-tard after printying the fastest and biggest inventory build in history and a Beiege Book that had a magic “BUY OIL WITH BOTH HANDS AND FEET” signal in it…

 

Charts: Bloomberg

Bonus Chart: Food for thought…

end

 

 

 

The private ADP numbers on employment misses expectations/job growth is slowing!!

 

(courtesy zero hedge)

 

 

 

 

ADP Employment Drops, Misses; Zandi Admits “Jobs Growth Slowing”

Another day, another missed data point. ADP Employment data shows 212k jobs added in February, which modestly missed expectations of 219k and is the weakest monthly gain in 6 months. This despite a strong prior revision, pushing the January number up from 213K to 250K to catch up to the BLS runrate. Despite the miss, that showed large businesses adding by far the fewest jobs, Mark Zandi as usual remains optimistic: “jobs growth is strong but slowing,” and expects the economy “will return to full employment by mid-2016.”

 

Another miss…

 

end

 

Dave Kranzler on the latest existing and new home sales.  It is dropping like a stone:

 

(courtesy Dave Kranzler/IRD)

 

Latest Existing/New Home Sales Show Market Decline Will Accelerate

Mortgage purchase applications have declined in 7 out of the first nine weeks of 2015. Based on seasonality, they should be increasing every week…Just so you don’t think my view on the housing market is a lone voice out there:

The complacency in evidence today is not dissimilar to that seen during the sub-prime era, when both Mr. Bernanke and Ms. Yellen admitted they did not see the problems coming. The real estate market is now accustomed to an ever increasing level of happy drugs. Now that the Fed has clearly come to the end of providing additional support, withdrawal is going to be quite painful  (LINK)

Case-Shiller Index publisher:  The housing recovery is faltering. While prices and sales of existing homes are close to normal, construction and new home sales remain weak. – David Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices

I published articles which blow away the Orwellian fog from the National Association or Realtor and Census Bureau headline reports for January’s existing and new home sale reports.   You can read them here:   Existing Home Sales;   New Home Sales

I have yet to hear one housing market bull explain how the home sales will  do anything but decline going forward given that the average American’s ability to purchase and fund and home continues to deteriorate – quickly – based on real median income reports, negative retail sales, negative consumer spending and rapidly growing consumer debt (auto, student loan, revolving).

end

 

Poor Hillary:  her troubles are just starting:

 

(courtesy zero hedge)

 

 

Hillary Clinton’s “Personal” Emails To Be Subpoenaed

In the aftermath of the revelations that Hillary Clinton had exclusively used a personal email account to conduct state correspondence with diplomatic leaders around the globe and pretty much everyone else, it was only a matter of time before the subpoenas started flying. That time is now and as WaPo reports, the “House investigative committee is preparing to send out subpoenas later Wednesday to gather a deeper look into former secretary of state Hillary Rodham Clinton’s nearly exclusive use of personal e-mails to do her official business as the government’s top diplomat, according to people familiar with the probe.”

As a reminder, here is a sampling of some of the emails Clinton had sent to at least one recipient, Sidney Blumenthal, whose email account had been hacked by the infamous Romanian hacker “Guccifer”.

The Committee is asking for all e-mails related to the attack from all Clintonemail.com accounts and any other staff members’ personal accounts.

The subpoenas are expected to go out to the State Department later Wednesday. The move escalates the panel’s conflict with Clinton and could complicate her expected run for president.

As the WaPo adds, the White House on Tuesday said Clinton appeared to have operated in violation of “very specific guidance” from the West Wing that members of the Obama administration use government e-mail accounts to carry out official business.

What makes this case different than the IRS email subpoena is that unlike in the instance of Lois Lerner where massive hardware failure was blamed for the failure to produce the discovery request, according to APthe computer server she used traces back to her family’s New York home.

The unusual practice of a Cabinet-level official running her own email server would have given Clinton — who is expected to run for president in the 2016 campaign — significant control over limiting access to her message archives.

According to AP, this would also complicate the State Department’s legal responsibilities in finding and turning over official emails in response to any investigations, lawsuits or public records requests. The department would be the position of accepting Clinton’s assurances she was surrendering everything required that was in her control.

The White House said it was Clinton’s responsibility to make sure any emails about official business weren’t deleted from her private server. “There’s a responsibility that’s associated with that, which is it’s important to ensure that when official business is conducted on personal email, that those records are properly maintained and preserved,” spokesman Josh Earnest said. He added there was no security review planned for Clinton’s email server.

And of course, the White House will gladly give the next democratic presidential hopeful, the benefit of the doubt that she never abused the email retention protocol, even if it means that nobody can actually check.

Except for the NSA of course, which thanks to Edward Snowden, we now know has a copy of virtually every single email to traverse the US internet in the last few years.

Where this story gets even more bizarre is that it was not immediately clear exactly where Clinton’s computer server was run. A business record for the Internet connection it used was registered under the home address for her residence in Chappaqua, New York, as early as August 2010. The customer was listed as Eric Hoteham.

An aide to then-first lady Clinton was identified in a 2002 congressional report as Eric Hothem, whose name is spelled differently than in the Internet records. Hothem was not available to take a phone call when reached at his office Wednesday.

 

A parody Twitter account for Hoteham appeared Wednesday after the AP cited the records, sending satirical tweets supporting Clinton’s campaign. Hoteham’s name had not appeared with that spelling in public-record databases, campaign contribution records or online background searches.

Some of the parody tweets are shown below:

But why would Hillary Clinton have her own server?

In most cases, individuals who operate their own email servers are technical experts or users so concerned about issues of privacy and surveillance they take matters into their own hands. Clinton has not described her motivation for using a private email account —hdr22@clintonemail.com, which appears to include a nod to her middle name, Diane. A spokesman for her did not respond to requests seeking comment from the AP on Tuesday or Wednesday. Clinton did not mention the issue during a speech Tuesday night at the 30th anniversary gala of EMILY’s List, which works to elect Democratic women who support abortion rights.

The AP adds that operating her own server “would have afforded Clinton additional legal opportunities to block government or private subpoenas in criminal, administrative or civil cases because her lawyers could object in court before being forced to turn over any emails. And since the Secret Service was guarding Clinton’s home, an email server there would have been well protected from theft or a physical hacking.”

This story makes even less sense when one considers that Hillary’s email options included using an official State Department account or even a secret agency email address, which the AP revealed in 2013 as a common practice across the U.S. government and by previous administrations. Many senior U.S. officials use alternate addresses that aren’t disclosed to the public for official business so they are not inundated with unwanted messages.

The humorous punchline is that “the State Department’s email system might not have been attractive to Clinton because it is frequently targeted by hackers.”

In other words, we will soon hear the excuse that the Clintons used personal email servers because they were safer than government ones.

That excuse may not fly: Rep. Trey Gowdy, R-S.C., chairman of the special House committee investigating the Benghazi attacks, said the panel learned last summer — when department documents were turned over — that Clinton had used a private email account while secretary of state. More recently the committee learned that she used private email accounts exclusively and had more than one, Gowdy said.

“It doesn’t matter if the server was in Foggy Bottom, Chappaqua, or Bora Bora,”House Speaker John Boehner said Wednesday. “The Benghazi Select Committee needs to see all of these emails, because the American people deserve all of the facts.”

Actually, what the American people deserve more than anything is a daily farcical tragicomedy, and with the latest Clinton revelations and the ensuing imminent kangaroo court in which the former SecState will pull the Sgt. Schultz defense, they will get just that.

Plus, in a world in which Goldman Sachs and the Federal Reserve call all the shots anyway, and only the NSA really knows what actually happened – an agency that is just as unsupervised as Clinton’s now defunct email account, what difference does it make which email account Mrs. Clinton was using?

end

 

Let’s conclude with Rob Kirby being interviewed by Greg Hunter.

 

Please do not miss this!!

 

(courtesy Greg Hunter/USAWatchdog)

 

World Headed for a Meat Grinder-Rob Kirby

 

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

Rob Kirby gives what he calls “proprietary macroeconomic research” to people around the world with billions of dollars to manage.  What are his connected sources telling him?  Kirby says, “People whose opinions I respect the most tell me that the world is headed for a meat grinder, and that is putting very bluntly.  This does not make me happy to say this, but we are headed for some very, very difficult times.  The people that are in charge of and are maintaining the status quo of dishonest commerce in our world today are extremely committed to the program.  I have referenced them before; they are the globalists.  These people have contempt for humanity.  These people, as a group, believe the world’s population needs to be reduced from its current roughly 7 billion to around 500 million people.  They refer to that as a sustainable model for the earth going forward.  I don’t share that view . . . but this is the path they have decided to take us down.”

On the wars and rumors of wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, Kirby says, “The whole talk about Israel and Iran is a side show.  What is going on in Ukraine, I view to be another side show. . . . The underlying root problem is that our financial system is failing, and history tells us when the financial system tanks, governments take us to war.  That’s why we are on a war footing, and that’s why we are hearing this rhetoric and inflamed talks about how we need war, and war is imminent and how war is going to be unavoidable.  It’s an age old thing, when the financial system craps, the elites take us to war.  End of story.”

It is looking like a much wider war breaks out this year. Kirby contends, “The reason for that is the financial system is showing signs of severe stress and severe weakness.  The money printing around the world has accelerated and gone into a warp drive or warp speed of money and credit creation.  We got the European Central bank talking about their own QE program.  We’ve got Japan printing money like blazes.  And listen, I think it was David Stockman that said there was over 2 trillion dollars of sovereign debt in the euro system trading at negative interest rates.  This is not sustainable.  This is why we have the burners turned up in the march to war.  The system is showing severe signs of systemic stress.  You can’t have 2 trillion dollars of sovereign trading at negative interest rates for a long time and have it be sustainable.”

Kirby goes on to say, “It all boils back to the money.  And it all boils back to the notion we don’t have honest money because when you have honest money, these excesses don’t occur.  Things cleanse themselves, and that is the virtue and the merit of the old relic, the gold standard, because it is honest commerce.  When you have honest commerce, generally people are peaceful and get along with each other on a fair basis.  Equal value for equal value for exchange of goods, not one country with the God given right to print money to buy the world’s output  with freshly created out of thin air fiat money.  It’s dishonest commerce.  Dishonest commerce is at the root of all the problems we are facing in the world.”

So, what do we get first, war or collapse?  Kirby predicts, “My gut tells me they are going to incite or create the basis for a war, and then, they will blame the crackup on the war.  You look at the math that is involved with fiat money and compounding interest.  The life cycle of that system shows that money is created in its early life that is slow and gradual upward to the right.  At some point, it inflects and it grows vertically.  We are on the vertical part of the curve now.  Things that go straight up are not sustainable. . . . what we will experience at some point, and I believe this is a mathematical certainty.  We will have a crackup–boom.  There will be a hyperinflation, and that outcome is guaranteed.  It’s a sealed fate.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Rob Kirby of KirbyAnalytics.com.

(There is much, much more in the video interview.)

 

end

 

 

 

We  will see you on Thursday.

bye for now

Harvey,

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: