March 16/Greece uses another 580 million euros from pensionsors/3 yr Greek paper at 20%/no foreigners participate in Greek auction/45 tonnes of gold demanded in China in first week of March/China sells another 6 billion euros of treasuries/Italian bad debts rise to 11.5% of GDP/

Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen:

 

 

Here are the following closes for gold and silver today:

 

 

Gold:  $1153.30 up $0.70 (comex closing time)

Silver: $15.60 up 12  cents (comex closing time)

 

 

In the access market 5:15 pm

 

 

Gold $1154.45

Silver: $15.64

 

 

Gold/silver trading:  see kitco charts on the right side of the commentary.

 

 

Following is a brief outline on gold and silver comex figures for today:

 

 

The gold comex today had a poor delivery day, registering 1 notice served for 100 oz.  Silver comex registered 113 notices for 565,000 oz .

 

 

Several months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today the total inventory rests at 249.88 tonnes for a loss of 53 tonnes over that period. Lately the removals  have been rising!

 

 

In silver, the open interest rose by another astonishing 2,458 contracts even though Friday’s silver price was down by 1 cent. The total silver OI continues to remain extremely high with today’s reading at 177,160 contracts. The front month of March fell by 39 contracts. We are now   at multi year high in the OI despite a record low price.  This dichotomy has been happening now for quite a while and defies logic.What is also strange today is the fact that the OI in went up with a very tiny volume on Friday.  This must be scaring our bankers to no end.

 

 

We had  113 notices served upon for 565,000 oz.

 

 

In gold we had a slight fall in OI with gold down by $0.50 on Friday. The total comex gold OI rests tonight at 424,231 for a loss of 204 contracts. Today, surprisingly we again had only 1 notices served upon for 100 oz.

 

 

Today, we had a constant inventory at  the  GLD/Inventory rests at 750.67  tonnes

 

 

In silver, /SLV  we had no change in inventory at the SLV/Inventory, remaining at 327.332 million oz

 

 

We have a few important stories to bring to your attention today…

 

1, Strange data again at the comex tonight: huge OI increases in silver despite lower prices/silver OI at multi year highs and yet silver is extremely low in price.  Again at the gold comex, we are witnessing massive amounts of our ancient metal of kings leaving the vaults. (harvey)

2, The ECB only purchases 9.8 billion euros of bonds on its first week. The program will turn out to be a huge failure.

(zero hedge)

3. China has 45 tonnes of gold as demand (=withdrawals from SGE)

Koos Jansen

 

4. China sells 5.5 billion USA of Treasuries in January after sellin g 6 billion in December.  Japan now equals China in total USA treasuries held ( 1.239 trillion.usa)  zero hedge

5.  War of words between Germany and Greece.  Greece is attempting to seize German assets as war reparations.  Varoufakis gives the Germans the royal finger.

Today, 3 yr Greek paper trades over 20% in yield/ no foreigner will touch Greek paper/total confidence is now lost in Greece.

Greece repays 580 million euros by borrowing from its pension fund

(zero hedge)

6. In the Oil sector, WTI closed at $43.77. The globe is producing in excess 2 million barrels per day and this oil has to be stored somewhere. There will be no more storage space by June. (zero hedge)

7. Now we have Michael Snyder warn us that California has about 1 year of water left: (Michael Snyder)

 

8. Italian non performing loans equal to 11.5% of GDP. Italy becoming a basket case.

 

9.  We have our first foreign casualty in the meltdown on Austrian Hypo.  The German bank DuesselHyp, with a tiny writedown of 348 million euros goes bell up.  Is this foreshadowing a future nightmare when a tiny write off  of 1.5% of assets creates  a total meltdown of a bank?

 

 

 

we have these and other stories for you tonight.

 

 

Let us now head over to the comex and assess trading over there today.

Here are today’s comex results:

 

 

The total gold comex open interest fell by a tiny margin of 204 contracts today from 424,435 down to 424,231 as  gold was down by $0.50 on Friday (at the comex close). We are now in the contract month of March which saw it’s OI lower to  111 for a loss of 19 contracts. We had 0 notices filed on Friday so we lost 19 contracts or an additional 1900 gold oz will not stand for delivery in this delivery month of March. The next big active delivery month is April and here the OI fell by 3683 contracts down to 213,865. The estimated volume today (which is just comex sales during regular business hours of 8:20 until 1:30 pm est) was poor at 59,201. The confirmed volume on Friday ( which includes the volume during regular business hours + access market sales the previous day) was poor at 141,212 contracts.   I wonder what happened to our HFT boys…probably scared off with the lawsuit filed. Today we had 1 notices filed for 100 oz.

 

 

And now for the wild silver comex results.  Silver OI rose by an extremely high 2,458 contracts from 174,702 up to 177,160 despite the fact that silver was down by 1 cent with respect to Friday’s trading and equally astonishing that the volume on Friday was extremely light. We are now in the active contract month of March and here the OI fell by 39 contracts down to 805. We had 35 contracts served upon on Friday. Thus we lost  4 contracts or an additional 20,000 oz will not stand in this March delivery month. The estimated volume today was simply awful at 12,513 contracts  (just comex sales during regular business hours. Something scared our HFT boys today. The confirmed volume on Friday (regular plus access market) came in  at 27,478 contracts which is poor in volume. We had 113 notices filed for 565,000 oz today.

 

 

March initial standings

March 16.2015

 

 

Gold

Ounces

Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz  nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz   45,010.200  oz  (Scotia, HSBC)
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz nil
No of oz served (contracts) today 1 contracts (100 oz)
No of oz to be served (notices)  110 contracts (11,000 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month 6 contracts(600 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawals  of gold from the Dealers inventory this month  114,790.651 oz

Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month

 8,511,333.3 oz

Today, we had 0 dealer transactions

 

total Dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposit: nil oz

 

 

we had 2 customer withdrawals (and the farce continues)

i) Out of Scotia: 38,580.000 oz (1200 kilobars)

 

ii) Out of HSBC:  6,430.200 oz  (??? not exactly 200 kilobars)

total customer withdrawal: 45,010.200 oz

 

 

we had 0 customer deposits:

total customer deposits;  nil  oz

 

 

We had 0 adjustments

 

 

Today, 0 notices was issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 1 contracts of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan dealer and 0 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan customer account.

 

 

To calculate the total number of gold ounces standing for the March contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (6) x 100 oz  or  600 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of March (111) and the number of notices served upon today (1) x 100 oz equals the number of ounces standing.

 

Thus the initial standings for gold for the March contract month:

No of notices served so far (6) x 100 oz  or ounces + {OI for the front month (111) – the number of  notices served upon today (1) x 100 oz} =  11,800 oz or.3608 tonnes

 

we lost 19 contracts or 1900 oz which no doubt were cash settled.

 

 

Total dealer inventory: 656,644.474 oz or 20.424 tonnes

Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) = 8.033 million oz. (249.88) tonnes)

Several weeks ago we had total gold inventory of 303 tonnes, so during this short time period 53.0 tonnes have been net transferred out. However I believe that the gold that enters the gold comex is not real.  I cannot see continual additions of strictly kilobars.

 

 

end

 

 

 

And now for silver

 

 

 

March silver initial standings

March 16 2015:

 

 

Silver

Ounces

Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory 504,618.650 oz (Brinks,Scotia,Delaware,HSBC,CNT)
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory   nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory 590,147.200  oz (Scotia)
No of oz served (contracts) 113 contracts  (565,000 oz)
No of oz to be served (notices) 692 contracts (3,460,000)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 1883 contracts (9,415,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
Total accumulative withdrawal  of silver from the Customer inventory this month  4,176,155.6 oz

Today, we had 0 deposit into the dealer account:

total dealer deposit: nil   oz

 

 

we had 0 dealer withdrawal:

total dealer withdrawal: nil oz

 

 

We had 1 customer deposits:

 

i) Into Scotia:  590,147.200 oz

total customer deposit: 590,147.200 oz

 

 

We had 4 customer withdrawals:

i) Out of Brinks:  7863.15 oz

ii) Out of Scotia:  60,874.400 oz

iii) Out of Delaware: 8,758.300 oz

iv) Out of HSBC: 400142.120 oz

v) Out of CNT: 26,980.68 oz

 

total withdrawals;  504,618.65 oz

 

 

we had 1 adjustment

i) out of CNT:  574,284.88 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer account of CNT;

 

 

Total dealer inventory: 69.433 million oz

Total of all silver inventory (dealer and customer) 176.432 million oz

.

The total number of notices filed today is represented by 113 contracts for 565,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in March, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at (1883) x 5,000 oz    = 9,415,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of March (805) and the number of notices served upon today (113) x 5000 oz  equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the initial standings for silver for the March contract month:

1883 (notices served so far) + { OI for front month of March( 805) -number of notices served upon today (113} x 5000 oz =  12,895,000 oz standing for the March contract month.

we lost 4 contracts or an additional 20,000 oz will not stand for delivery in March.

 

for those wishing to see the rest of data today see:

 

http://www.harveyorgan.wordpress.com orhttp://www.harveyorganblog.com

 

 

end

 

 

The two ETF’s that I follow are the GLD and SLV. You must be very careful in trading these vehicles as these funds do not have any beneficial gold or silver behind them. They probably have only paper claims and when the dust settles, on a collapse, there will be countless class action lawsuits trying to recover your lost investment.

There is now evidence that the GLD and SLV are paper settling on the comex.

***I do not think that the GLD will head to zero as we still have some GLD shareholders who think that gold is the right vehicle to be in even though they do not understand the difference between paper gold and physical gold. I can visualize demand coming to the buyers side:

i) demand from paper gold shareholders

ii) demand from the bankers who then redeem for gold to send this gold onto China

vs no sellers of GLD paper.

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD:

 

March 16/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory 750.67 tonnes

 

 

March 13/ we had a small change in gold inventory at the GLD (small withdrawal/probably to pay for fees)/Inventory at 750.67 tonnes

March 12.we had a withdrawal of 2.09 tonnes of gold at the GLD/Inventory at 750.95 tonnes

March 11.2015: no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory at 753.04 tonnes

March 10 no report on the GLD tonight/computer down/inventory remains 753.04 tonnes

March 9/ we had another huge withdrawal of 3.38 tonnes of gold from the GLD, no doubt heading for Shanghai/Inventory 753.04 tonnes

March 6/we had a huge withdrawal of 4.48 tonnes of gold from the GLD/inventory rests tonight at 756.32/Also HSBC is getting out of the gold business in London and is giving up all of its 7 vaults.

March 5 no change in gold inventory at the GLD/760.80 tonnnes

March 4/ no change/inventory 760.80 tonnes

March 3 we had another 2.69 tonnes of gold withdrawn from the GLD. Inventory is now 760.80 tonnes.

March 2  we had 7.76 tonnes of withdrawal from the GLD today and this physical gold landed in Shanghai/Inventory 763.49 tonnes

 

 

March 16/2015 /  no change from Friday/Inventory at 750.67 tonnes

inventory: 750.67 tonnes.

The registered vaults at the GLD will eventually become a crime scene as real physical gold departs for eastern shores leaving behind paper obligations to the remaining shareholders. There is no doubt in my mind that GLD has nowhere near the gold that say they have and this will eventually lead to the default at the LBMA and then onto the comex in a heartbeat (same banks).

GLD : 750.67 tonnes.

 

 

end

 

 

 

 

And now for silver (SLV):

 

March 16/no change in silver inventory/327.332 million oz

 

 

March 13.2015: no change in silver inventory/327.332 million oz

March 12: no changes in silver inventory/327.332 million oz

March 11/no changes in silver inventory/327.332 million oz

March 10/ no change in silver inventory/327.332 million oz

March 9/ no change in silver inventory at the SLV/327.332 million oz

March 6: huge addition of 1.34 million oz of silver into the SLV/Inventory 727.332 million oz

March 5 no change in inventory/725.992 million oz

March 4 a slight reduction of  126,000 oz of silver/SLV inventory at 725.992 (probably to pay for fees)

March 3 a small deposit of 328,000 oz of silver into the SLV/Inventory at 726.118 million oz.

March 2/ no change in silver inventory tonight; 725.734 million oz

Feb 27.2015 no change in silver inventory tonight: 725.734 million oz

Feb 26. no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory at 725.734 million oz

Feb 25. no changes in silver inventory/SLV inventory at 725.734 million oz

 

 

 

 

 

March 16/2015 no change in    silver inventory at the SLV/ SLV inventory rests tonight at 327.332 million oz

 

 

end

 

 

 

And now for our premiums to NAV for the funds I follow:

Note: Sprott silver fund now for the first time into the negative to NAV

Sprott and Central Fund of Canada.
(both of these funds have 100% physical metal behind them and unencumbered and I can vouch for that)

Not available tonight

1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative  7.9% percent to NAV in usa funds and Negative 7.9% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!!!!!

Percentage of fund in gold 61.6%

Percentage of fund in silver:37.9%

cash .5%

( March 16/2015)

 

 

Sprott gold fund finally rising in NAV

2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): Premium to NAV rises to + 1.71%!!!!! NAV (March 16/2015)

3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV rises to +.02% to NAV(March 16  /2015)

Note: Sprott silver trust back  into positive territory at +1.26%.

Sprott physical gold trust is back into positive territory at +.02%

Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail.

 

 

end

 

 

 

 

And now for your more important physical gold/silver stories:

 

 

Gold and silver trading early this morning

 

 

(courtesy Mark O’Byrne)

 

Irish Finance Minister Dumps Stocks to Buy Gold

– Ireland’s Minister of Finance shifted personal wealth out of stocks and into gold

– Minister invested in SPDR Gold Shares ETF, Portuguese government bonds and other ETFs

– Maintained holdings in bank and agricultural commodities ETFs

– Gold ETF not a safe haven asset – much unappreciated counterparty risk

The Minister for Finance in Ireland, Michael Noonan, sold his shares in funds that track European and US stocks and diversified his portfolio including allocating some of his personal wealth into a gold exchange traded fund (ETF) in 2014.

Sunday Independent

Noonan sold out of his positions in the Lyxor Eurostoxx 50 ETF and SPDR DJIA ETF in 2014 and opted to invest in the SPDR gold shares ETF and Portuguese government bonds. He maintained his holdings in SPDR KBW Banks ETF, Ishares FTSE 100 ETF, Market Vectors Agri Business ETF, ETFS Agricultural Commodities ETF.
The information was published last week in the Register of Members Interests, in which members of Oireachtas – the Irish Parliament – must declare financial interests valued at over €13,000.

The changes to the Minister’s portfolio were highlighted by Ireland’s Sunday Independent yesterday, who described Noonan as “bearish” and interpreted the move as a “hedge against euro deflation”.

The piece acknowledged that gold is a safe haven – the “traditional hedge against tough times” and that “gold is an asset that has outperformed in times of both inflation and deflation.”

Noonan is believed to be quite a shrewed investor. The Sunday Independent reported that

Noonan’s personal investments give an insight into his thinking and his views on the risk and opportunities facing the global and European economies and markets. He has a track record stretching back decades of canny private investments.”

The news is of interest given Noonan’s status within the Eurogroup of Finance Ministers, the Council of the European Union and the Ecofin. The Economic and Financial Affairs Council (Ecofin), is composed of the Economics and Finance Ministers of the Member States, generally meets once a month under the chair of the rotating EU Presidency.

Noonan is an EU economic insider and would have access to good information with regards to financial and economic developments in Europe.

Noonan represents Ireland at these meetings and chaired the Council during the first half of 2013. He is committed to the European political project. The political opposition and an angry public have accused him of  putting the interests of EU banks and political elites over those of Irish society.

Given Noonan is close to EU elites, it is interesting that he chose to sell his European stocks and his allocation to Eurostoxx. Was the decision made prior to the ECB mooting the possibility of QE? If so it would suggest that Noonan may have been concerned about deflation. And yet the ECB never considered factoring the potential for deflation into its stress tests for banks.

Or was the decision made with knowledge of the ECB’s intention? If this were so it would indicate a lack of faith by a European finance minister in the ability of the ECB to achieve its stated objectives, given that QE should raise European stock markets.

Unfortunately, the Register of Members Interests does not detail the timeline of investments or their relative value so it is difficult to speculate whether the minister dumped his stock market investments prior to buying the gold ETF.

Noonan also bought Portugal 4.35% October 2017 government bonds. This either suggests that he has more confidence in the economic outlook for Portugal than for Ireland or more likely it is a form of diversification.

Gold Investment Pyramid - GoldCore

He continues to hold SPDR KBW US Banks ETF – which tracks US banks,  iShares FTSE 100 ETF, Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF and ETFS Agricultural Commodities ETF.

Whatever the motivation of a European finance minister to buy into a gold ETF – which, incidentally, is not the same as owning physical gold as it carries significant counterparty risk – it represents a significant shift in attitude toward gold.

It also demonstrates that the recovery narrative is not one that the Minister appears to have much faith in. Noonan is prudently hedging his bets in this regard.

We advise readers and clients to do as the Minister has done and prudently hedge the many risks of today by diversifying into gold – not paper gold but physical gold. The gold ETF is not a safe haven asset rather it is a derivative that tracks the price of gold and in which one does not have legal title to or own the underlying asset.

Download: Comprehensive Guide To Investing In Gold

 

MARKET UPDATE

Today’s AM fix was USD 1,157.00, EUR 1,097.67 and GBP 782.13 per ounce.
Friday’s AM fix was USD 1,156.50, EUR 1,091.24  and GBP 779.58 per ounce.

Gold climbed 0.17% percent or $1.90 and closed at $1,155.20 an ounce Friday, while silver remained unchanged at $15.57 an ounce. Gold and silver both traded down for the week at 0.90 percent and 1.89 percent.

goldcore_bloomberg_chart3_16-03-15

In Singapore, bullion for immediate delivery ticked lower and then higher and was up 0.3 percent to $1,162.50 an ounce near the end of day trading.

Gold hovered at its lowest in nearly three months today pressured by the still strong U.S. dollar. The two day U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting starting Tuesday, may hint at the timing of any hike in U.S. interest rates.

Bearish sentiment continued as holdings in SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell to 750.67 tonnes down 0.28 tonnes on Friday – the lowest since late January.

Asians continue to buy physical bullion on dips in price and premiums on the Shanghai Gold Exchange were about $5-$6 an ounce above the global benchmark, even stronger than Friday’s premiums.

In Ireland, in late morning trading gold is trading at $1,157.03 or off 0.09 percent. Silver is at $15.64 or up 0.15 percent and platinum is $1,115.32 or up 0.03 percent

end

 

During the first week of March a huge 45 tonnes of gold was demanded in China.  This gold leaves the SGE vaults and with the expert analysis of Koos Jansen, equals gold demand in China. We would also like to point out that this gold demanded excludes any sovereign  gold purchases from mainland China. We are on tap for demand of 550 tonnes this quarter.  By talking mining and scrap away from the figures, China imported 340 tonnes of gold which is huge.

 

The 45 tonnes of gold demanded by China works out to 6.4 tonnes of gold.The world produces 6.02 tonnes of gold ex China ex Russia. Thus these guys are purchasing over 100% of annual global production.

(I subtract out China and Russia gold production because no gold is allowed to leave their respective countries)

 

 

 

 

 

(courtesy Koos Jansen)

 

 

Posted on 14 Mar 2015 by

SGE Withdrawals 45t Week 9, YTD 456t

Chinese wholesale gold demand, that equals withdrawals from the vaults of the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE),accounted for 45 metric tonnes in week 9 of 2015 (March 2 – 6). Year to date 456 tonnes have been withdrawn from the SGE vaults. An estimate suggests 340 tonnes has been net imported into the Chinese domestic gold marketover this period (calculating with a yearly SGE scrap rate of 250 tonnes).

Screen Shot 2015-03-14 at 8.47.03 PM
Blue (本周交割量) is weekly gold withdrawn from the vaults in Kg, green (累计交割量) is the total YTD.

Since the inception of the Shanghai International Gold Exchange (SGEI) there was a possibility the significance of SGE withdrawals, as published in the Chinese weekly reports, became distorted by activity on the SGEI – in the Free Trade Zone. That’s why I corrected SGE withdrawals by trading volume from the SGEI, just to be on the safe side of measuring Chinese wholesale demand.

However, we just learned that what was traded and withdrawn on the SGEI in 2014 was primarily imported into the Chinese domestic gold market. So, for the time being we can assume SGE withdrawals are still an accurate proxy for Chinese wholesale demand – a metric described in this post.