March 31/Another 10 tonnes of gold leaves the FRBNY probably heading to Germany/James Turk gives Greece two weeks before default/Yemeni rebels close to the key Bab el Mandeb strait/Saudi Arabia ready to invade/

 

 

 

 

 

Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen:

 

 

Here are the following closes for gold and silver today:

 

 

Gold:  $1183.10 down $1.70 (comex closing time)

Silver: $16.58 down 8 cents (comex closing time)

 

In the access market 5:15 pm

 

Gold $1183.00

Silver: $16.62

 

Gold/silver trading:  see kitco charts on the right side of the commentary.

 

Following is a brief outline on gold and silver comex figures for today:

 

The gold comex today, on first day delivery notice, we surprisingly had a poor delivery day, registering only 3 notices served for 300 oz.  Silver comex registered 0 notices for nil oz .

 

Several months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today the total inventory rests at 249.165 tonnes for a loss of 54 tonnes over that period. Lately the removals  have been rising!

 

I checked last night the gold inventory levels of foreign deposits at the FRBNY.  The account shows that 9.577 tonnes of gold left its vaults and no doubt that this gold belongs to Germany as they are the only official country so far that has asked for it back and has not already received what was wished.

 

Here are those results:

 

As of Feb 28.2015 official foreign gold leaving the vaults of FRBNY:

$8,143 million MINUS $8130 million  =  13 MILLION DOLLARS WORTH OF GOLD AT $42.22/oz
number of oz then becomes  307,910.00  oz, which
in tonnes:  9.577 tonnes
Then this is gold leaving the FRBNY for Germany.
end

 

In silver, the open interest fell by only 358 contracts,  even though Monday’s silver price was down by 40 cents. The total silver OI continues to remain extremely high with today’s reading at 170,257 contracts. The front month of March is now off the board. The front April month has an OI of 110 contracts. We are still close to multi year high in the total OI complex despite a record low price. This dichotomy has been happening now for quite a while and defies logic. There is no doubt that the silver situation is scaring our bankers to no end.

 

We had 0 notices served upon for nil oz.

 

 

In gold we again have a total collapse of OI as we enter the next active delivery month of April . The total comex gold OI rests tonight at 387,881 for another loss of 4772 contracts. With June gold almost equal to April gold in price, it just does not make sense why so many would liquidate their positions.  Today is options expiry for gold/silver contracts on the OTC market.We had 3 notices served upon for 300 oz.

 

 

Today, we had no changes in gold inventory   at the GLD/  Gold Inventory rests at 737.24  tonnes

In silver, /SLV  we had no changes with respect to silver inventory  / the SLV/Inventory, at 323.888 million oz

 

We have a few important stories to bring to your attention today…

 

1, Today we again had some short covering in the silver comex with the silver OI falling by only 358 contracts.  Gold OI fell again by 4772 contracts. We also have a report on gold leaving the FRBNY

(report Harvey/zero hedge)

2. Greece will likely default in two weeks

(James Turk/Kingworldnews)

3. Early this morning, we got word that Japan is contemplating joining the Chinese initiate AIIB.  If that was not surprising then the next news on who will join certainly caused shock waves through the world; Taiwan said it will submit to become a member

(zero hedge/Bloomberg)

4. Turkey this morning had a huge blackout for most of the nation. Then a Marxist group takes a Turkish prosecutor hostage.

(Bloomberg/zero hedge)

5. Yemeni rebels are close to taking the Bab al Mandeb straight.  Saudi Arabia is reading to invade.

(zero hedge)

 

 

we have these and other stories for you tonight

 

 

Let us now head over to the comex and assess trading over there today.

Here are today’s comex results:

 

The total gold comex open interest fell by another 4772 contracts from  392,653 down to 387,881 as gold was down by $15.00 yesterday (at the comex close). As I mentioned above, the complete collapse of OI as we enter an active delivery month makes no sense.The fact that we have a middle eastern war, troubles in Ukraine and in Greece and then to have a complete collapse in OI is beyond comprehension. We are off contract month of March.  We are now in the  active delivery month of April and here the OI fell by 13,597 contracts down to 7,347. The next non active delivery month is May and here the OI rose by 56 contracts up to 498.  The next big active delivery contract month is June and here the OI rose by 9813 up to 261,720.  June is the second biggest delivery month on the comex gold calender. The estimated volume today (which is just comex sales during regular business hours of 8:20 until 1:30 pm est) was poor at 66,940.  (Where on earth are the high frequency boys?). The confirmed volume yesterday ( which includes the volume during regular business hours + access market sales the previous day) was poor at 177,367 contracts. Today we had 3 notices filed for 300 oz which is most unusual for a first day delivery notice.

And now for the wild silver comex results.  Silver OI fell by only 358 contracts from 170,615 down to 170,257 despite the fact that silver was down by 40 cents, with respect to Monday’s trading . It certainly seems that we have some resolute longs who refuse to part with their silver contracts. We are off  the active contract month of March.  We are now in the non active delivery month of April and here the OI remained constant at 110.  The next big active delivery month is May and here the OI dropped by 1447 contracts down to 100,534. The estimated volume today was poor at 20,998 contracts  (just comex sales during regular business hours.  The confirmed volume yesterday  (regular plus access market) came in at 36,241 contracts which is good in volume. We had 0 notices filed for nil oz today.

 

 

April initial standings

March 31.2015

Gold

Ounces

Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz  nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz  2411.25 oz (Scotia)75 kilobars
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz 32,150.000 oz (Scotia)1000 kilobars)
No of oz served (contracts) today 3 contracts (300 oz)
No of oz to be served (notices)  7345 contracts(734,500) oz
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month 3 contracts(300 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawals  of gold from the Dealers inventory this month   oz

Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month

  2411.25 oz

Today, we had 0 dealer transaction

total Dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

 

we had 0 dealer deposit

total dealer deposit: nil

 

 

And the farce on kilobars continues!!

 

 

we had 1 customer withdrawals

i) Out of Scotia:  2411.25 oz (75 kilobars)

 

total customer withdrawal: 2411.25 oz  (75 kilobars)

 

 

we had 1 customer deposit:

 

i) Into Scotia:  32,150.000 oz  (1000 kilobars)

 

total customer deposit:  32,150.000 oz  (1000 kilobars)

 

We had 1 adjustment

a removal of 1/2 oz as an accounting error at Delaware.

 

Today, 0 notices was issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 3 contracts of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan dealer and 0 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan customer account

To calculate the total number of gold ounces standing for the March contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (3) x 100 oz  or  300 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of April (7345) and the number of notices served upon today (3) x 100 oz equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the initial standings for gold for the April contract month:

No of notices served so far (3) x 100 oz  or ounces + {OI for the front month (7345) – the number of  notices served upon today (3) x 100 oz} =  734,800 oz or 22.855 tonnes

 

This is very good, but as always we  will see this number contract as the month proceeds.

 

 

 

Total dealer inventory: 658,833.604 oz or 20.49 tonnes

Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) = 8,010,674.044  oz. (249.16) tonnes)

 

Several weeks ago we had total gold inventory of 303 tonnes, so during this short time period 54.0 tonnes have been net transferred out. However I believe that the gold that enters the gold comex is not real.  I cannot see continual additions of strictly kilobars.

 

 

end

 

 

And now for silver

April silver initial standings

March 31 2015:

Silver

Ounces

Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory 429,177.29 oz (HSBC,Scotia)
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory  nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory nil
No of oz served (contracts) 0 contracts  (nil oz)
No of oz to be served (notices) 110 contracts(550,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 0 contracts (nil oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
Total accumulative withdrawal  of silver from the Customer inventory this month  429,177.29 oz

Today, we had 0 deposits into the dealer account:

total dealer deposit: nil   oz

 

 

we had 0 dealer withdrawal:

total dealer withdrawal: nil oz

 

 

We had 0 customer deposits:

 

total customer deposits:  nil  oz

 

 

We had 2 customer withdrawals:

i) Out of HSBC:  318,115.730 oz

ii) Out of Scotia;  90, 286.420 oz

total withdrawals;  429,177.290 oz

 

 

we had 1 adjustments:

 

Out of HSBC:

5,069.25 oz was adjusted out of the dealer at HSBC into the customer account of HSBC

 

 

Total dealer inventory: 70.569 million oz

Total of all silver inventory (dealer and customer) 176.65 million oz

.

The total number of notices filed today is represented by 0 contracts for nil oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in March, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at (0) x 5,000 oz    = 0 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of April (110) and the number of notices served upon today (0) x 5000 oz equals the number of ounces standing.

 

Thus the initial standings for silver for the April contract month:

 

 

0 (notices served so far) + { OI for front month of April(110) -number of notices served upon today (0} x 5000 oz =  550,000 oz standing for the April contract month.

 

 

for those wishing to see the rest of data today see:

http://www.harveyorgan.wordpress.com orhttp://www.harveyorganblog.com

 

 

end

 

 

The two ETF’s that I follow are the GLD and SLV. You must be very careful in trading these vehicles as these funds do not have any beneficial gold or silver behind them. They probably have only paper claims and when the dust settles, on a collapse, there will be countless class action lawsuits trying to recover your lost investment.

There is now evidence that the GLD and SLV are paper settling on the comex.

***I do not think that the GLD will head to zero as we still have some GLD shareholders who think that gold is the right vehicle to be in even though they do not understand the difference between paper gold and physical gold. I can visualize demand coming to the buyers side:

i) demand from paper gold shareholders

ii) demand from the bankers who then redeem for gold to send this gold onto China

vs no sellers of GLD paper.

 

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD:

 

march 31.2015/ no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory at 737.24 tonnes

 

March 30/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory at 737.24 tonnes.

 

March 27/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory at 737.24 tonnes

 

March 26 we had another huge withdrawal of 5.97 tonnes of gold.  This gold is heading straight to the vaults of Shanghai, China/GLD inventory 737.24 tonnes

March 25.2015 we had a withdrawal of 1.19 tonnes of gold from the GLD/Inventory at 743.21 tonnes

March 24/ no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory 744.40 tonnes

March 23/we had a huge withdrawal of 5.37 tonnes of gold from the GLD vaults/Inventory 744.40 tonnes

march 20/we had no changes in  inventory at the GLD/Inventory at 749.77 tonnes

March 19/we had no changes in inventory at the GLD/Inventory 749.77 tonnes

March 18/ we had a withdrawal of .9 tonnes of gold from the GLD/Inventory at 749.77 tonnes

March 17.2015: no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory 750.67 tonnes

March 16/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory 750.67 tonnes

 

 

 

March 31/2015 /  we had no changes in  gold/Inventory at 737.24 tonnes

The registered vaults at the GLD will eventually become a crime scene as real physical gold departs for eastern shores leaving behind paper obligations to the remaining shareholders. There is no doubt in my mind that GLD has nowhere near the gold that say they have and this will eventually lead to the default at the LBMA and then onto the comex in a heartbeat (same banks).

GLD : 737.24 tonnes.

 

 

end

 

 

And now for silver (SLV):

 

 

March 31.2015: no changes in inventory at the SLV/Inventory at 323.88 million oz

 

March 30.2015: no changes in inventory at the SLV/inventory at 323.888 million oz.

 

 

March 27. we had a huge withdrawal of 1.439 million oz leave the SLV/Inventory rests this weekend at 323.888 million oz

March 26.2015; no change in silver inventory/SLV inventory 325.323 million oz

March 25.2015:no change in silver inventory/SLV inventory 325.323 million oz

March 24.2015/ we had another withdrawal of 835,000 oz of silver from the SLV/Inventory rests tonight at 325.323 million oz

March 23./we had a huge withdrawal of 1.174 million oz of silver from the SLV vaults/Inventory 326.158 million oz

March 20/ no changes in silver inventory/327.332 million oz

March 19/ no change in silver inventory/327.332 million oz

March 18/ no change in silver inventory/327.332 million oz

March 17/ no change in silver inventory/327.332 million oz

March 16/no change in silver inventory/327.332 million oz

 

 

 

March 31/2015 we had no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 323.888 million oz

 

 

end

 

 

 

And now for our premiums to NAV for the funds I follow:

Note: Sprott silver fund now for the first time into the negative to NAV

Sprott and Central Fund of Canada.
(both of these funds have 100% physical metal behind them and unencumbered and I can vouch for that)

1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative  8.1% percent to NAV in usa funds and Negative 8.3% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!!!!!

Percentage of fund in gold 60.9%

Percentage of fund in silver:38.7%

cash .4%

 

( March 31/2015)

 

Sprott gold fund finally rising in NAV

2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): Premium to NAV falls to + 0.35%!!!!! NAV (March 31/2015)

3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV rises -.40% to NAV(March 31  /2015)

Note: Sprott silver trust back  into positive territory at +0.35%.

Sprott physical gold trust is back into negative territory at -.40%

Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail.

 

 

end

 

 

 

And now for your more important physical gold/silver stories:

 

Gold and silver trading early this morning

 

(courtesy Goldcore/Mark O’Byrne)

 

$100 Trillion Global Bond Bubble Poses “Systemic Risk” To Financial System

  • Global bond bubble poses systemic risk to financial system
  • FT warns that a June rate hike could put fixed-income funds under severe pressure
  • Fed’s Bullard warns of “dire consequences” of developing asset price bubbles
  • UK fund managers worried about “inflated value of bonds”
  • Regulators talk tough but have wavered since 2011
  • Mutual fund markets have “ballooned” since 2008
  • “Gates” or capital controls that limit investor withdrawals in troubled times are likely

The Financial Times warned today about the growing global ‘bond bubble’ and potential severe problems in the bond markets and ‘systemic risk’ which may come to a head in June if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates.

ft

In an article entitled “Time to find out hard way if asset management is systemic risk“, it quotes James Bullard from the Fed warning of “dire consequences” due to developing asset price bubbles if the Fed does not raise rates soon.

It refers to fact that “80 per cent of fund managers surveyed by CFA UK, a financial standards body, signalled worries about the inflated value of bonds.” It discusses how plans have been in the making to manage risks posed by certain funds by “boosting supervision of asset managers.”

For example, earlier this month “the Financial Stability Board and the International Organisation of Securities Commissions promised a plan to identify systemically important funds and contain their risks.”

The FT explains that such regulation was requested by the G20 at the end of 2011. The FT warns that the plan to make a plan – which will not be operational until early next year – will come too late to deal with the expected Fed rate hike.

chart_1_31-03-2015

A report published this month by Morgan Stanley and consultants at Oliver Wyman argues that “the closest parallel to today’s scenario occurred in 1994, when an increase in Fed rates was followed by a 5 per cent outflow from fixed-income funds.”

Today such funds are holding roughly 7 per cent of their assets in cash with which to weather potential outflows. However, the article warns that “many bond watchers are nervous that the fundamental changes in the financial world make historical parallels misleading”, particularly the “scale of the market”.

U.S. mutual funds which make up half of the global total have doubled to $15 trillion since 2008.

“Since that 1994 Fed rate rise, the US’s bond-invested mutual funds have grown sixfold to more than $3 trillion today.”

Since 2000, the global bond markets size has nearly tripled in size. Today it is worth more than $100 trillion and it is backed by and intertwined with the gargantuan $550 trillion plus derivatives market.

chart_2_31-03-2015

It continues

“Expanded markets might normally be more liquid, but not this one. Thanks to the crisis and post-crisis regulation, investment banks no longer fulfil the same kind of market-making role they used to. At a time of volatility and potential large-scale selling, the absence of such a buffer is likely to add to the downward pressure on prices.”

Downward pressure on prices will mean higher interest rates – potentially sharply and rapidly higher.

This perceived weakness has caused what the FT describes as “global policy makers” to designate some larger funds and the companies that run them as “Systemically Important Financial Institutions” – SIFIs – along with some banks and insurers.

“So bank-style capital charges for asset managers now look unlikely.”

chart_3_31-03-2015

“Gates” that limit investor withdrawals from a fund in troubled times are a possibility. Stress tests, focused on funds’ liquidity positions, seem probable. And standardised disclosures of cash and hidden leverage (through derivatives exposures) are also expected.”The developing bail-in regime also poses risks to investors in bonds who could find their investment “bailed in.”

“Gates” are capital controls that would make bond funds less liquid and pose risks to investors and pensioners.

The FT suggests that these measures will come too late:

“With a Fed rate rise expected as early as June, the world will soon find out the hard way whether the asset management industry is a systemic risk or not.”

Investment managers are now over allocated to bonds due to their perceived safe haven status. Conversely, gold remains under allocated to in investment and pension portfolios globally. The majority of investment and pension funds having no allocation to gold whatsoever.

Gold will again act as a hedging instrument when safe havenbonds come under pressure in the coming months and the global bond bubble bursts.

Must read research on developing bail-in regimes including world’s top 50 banks here:
Protecting Your Savings In The Coming Bail-In Era
From Bail-Outs to Bail-Ins: Risks and Ramifications
MARKET UPDATE
Today’s AM fix was USD 1,179.25, EUR 1,098.84 and GBP 797.95 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,187.40, EUR 1,095.01 and GBP 800.36 per ounce.