April 24/The huge meeting in Riga today: a big failure/Greece to give poverty stricken individuals who cannot pay their debt 20,000 euros/Corinthia, the state which housed Hypo bank and guaranteed Hypo bonds officially asks for bailout money/Puerto Rico’s government may shut down in 3 months due to lack of liquidity/Our HFT traders wanted to remove our British flash crash trader as he was beating them at their own game/

Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen:

 

 

 

Here are the following closes for gold and silver today:

 

Gold:  $1175.60 down $18.90 (comex closing time)

Silver: $15.63 down 19 cents (comex closing time)

 

In the access market 5:15 pm

Gold $1179.30

Silver: $15.74

 

 

Gold/silver trading:  see kitco charts on the right side of the commentary.

Monday is options expiry on the comex.  On Thursday we will have options expiry on the LBMA in London and on the OTC market as well.The bankers always whack the precious metals prior to and during options expiry week.  The boys are also very concerned about the high OI in silver.

 

Following is a brief outline on gold and silver comex figures for today:

 

At the gold comex today,  we had a poor delivery day, registering 0 notices served for nil oz.  Silver comex filed with 0 notices for nil  oz .

 

Several months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today the total inventory rests at 241.18 tonnes for a loss of 62 tonnes over that period. Lately the removals have been rising!

 

end

 

In silver, the open interest rose by another 1886 contracts despite the fact that Thursday’s silver price was up by only 3 cents. The total silver OI continues to remain extremely high with today’s reading at 186,164 contracts rising to multi-year record highs. The front April month has an OI of 22 contracts for a loss of 1 contract. We are now at multi year high in the total OI complex despite a record low price. This dichotomy has been happening now for quite a while and defies logic. There is no doubt that the silver situation is scaring our bankers to no end.

 

We had 0 notices served upon for nil oz.

 

 

In gold,  the total comex gold OI rests tonight at 405,564 for a loss of 976 contracts despite the fact that gold was up by $7.50 yesterday. We had 0 notices served upon for nil oz.

 

 

Today, we had no changes in  gold inventory at the GLD/  Gold Inventory rests at 742.35  tonnes

 

Looks to me like London is out of gold.

 

In silver, /  /we had a small change (withdrawal) in silver inventory at the SLV/ and thus the inventory tonight is 326.226 million oz

 

We have a few important stories to bring to your attention today…

 

1. Today we had the open interest in silver rise by another huge 1,615, contracts despite the fall in price on Wednesday (21 cents). Not only that but the OI for the front month of May fell by only 5,751 contracts as we have only 5 trading days left before first day notice.  The OI for gold fell by 976 contracts down to 405,564 contracts despite the fact that the price of gold was up by $7.50 on Thursday. No changes in GLD  and a slight withdrawal in SLV inventories.  The COT report was released at 3:30 pm and it is quite weird. Monday is options expiry.

(report Harvey)

 

2,Two important commentaries on Greece today:

i) The Greek government has passed a law which states that the Greek banking system will provide 20,000 euros to cash strapped, poverty stricken individuals. I can assure you that the ECB was not thrilled with this. Today’s meeting in Riga was a complete shambles. Either they come to an agreement fairly fast or Greece will turn eastward toward Moscow.

(zero hedge)

3. On Tuesday we reported on the arrest of a single trader who acted alone on that famous flash crash in May of 2010.  This trader resides in England.   The trader, Sarao will fight the extradition as he cites that many others are doing the same thing. Zero hedge writes his promised open letter to the CFTC on how spoofing and layering are manipulating the prices of commodities and stocks and he will document these illegal activities on a daily basis to the CFTC. Today Michael Lewis, author of the Crash Boys ridicules the CFTC.  Also zero hedge alleges that the reason the CFTC went after Sarao was due to the fact that he was eating into the HFT profits. The HFT crooks wanted Sarao removed..so they asked the CFTC to arrest him and they obliged.

(zero hedge, Michael Lewis)

4. The state of Corinthia, Austria officially asks for bailout funds

(zero hedge)

5.  For the past few years, I have been highlighting financial problems with USA vassal state Puerto Rico.  It now seems that the government may have to fold due to lack of liquidity.

(zero hedge)

 

 

we have these and other stories for you tonight

 

Let us now head over to the comex and assess trading over there today.

Here are today’s comex results:

 

The total gold comex open interest fell by 976 contracts from  406,540 down to 405,564 despite the fact that gold was up  by $7.50 yesterday (at the comex close). We are now in the active delivery month of April and here the OI fell by 31 contracts down to 440. We had 1 contracts filed upon on Thursday so we lost 30 gold contracts or 3000 ounces that will not stand for delivery in April. The next non active delivery month is May and here the OI fell by 5 contracts down to 436.  The next big active delivery contract month is June and here the OI fell by 1865 contracts down to 264,861. June is the second biggest delivery month on the comex gold calendar. The estimated volume today (which is just comex sales during regular business hours of 8:20 until 1:30 pm est) was poor at 65,298. The confirmed volume yesterday ( which includes the volume during regular business hours + access market sales the previous day) was poor at 123,934 contracts. Today we had 0 notices filed for nil oz.

And now for the wild silver comex results.  Silver OI rose by another 1886 contracts from 184,278 up to 186,164 despite the fact that the price of silver was up only 3 cents, with respect to Thursday’s trading.  Somebody big is willing to take on JPMorgan.  We are now in the non active delivery month of April and here the OI fell by 1 contracts down to 22.  We had 1 notice filed yesterday so we neither gained  nor lost any silver contracts standing  in this delivery month of April. The next big active delivery month is May and here the OI fell by only 4673 contracts down to 53,045.  We have less than 1 week before first day notice on Thursday, April 30.2015. The estimated volume today was good at 41,784 contracts (just comex sales during regular business hours. The confirmed volume yesterday (regular plus access market) came in at 69,709 contracts which is excellent in volume except we had many rollovers. We had 0 notices filed for nil oz today. The fact that very little silver contracts are leaving the May delivery month arena must scare the living daylights out of our banker friends.

 

 

April initial standings

April 24.2015

Gold

Ounces

Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz  nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz  160,384.771 (Manfra, Scotia)
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz nil
No of oz served (contracts) today 0 contracts (nil oz)
No of oz to be served (notices)  440 contracts(44,000) oz
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month 2361 contracts(236,100 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawals  of gold from the Dealers inventory this month   oz

Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month

  556,667.6 oz

Today, we had 0 dealer transaction

total Dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 0 dealer deposits

 

total dealer deposit: nil oz

 

we had 2 customer withdrawals

 i) Out of Manfra:  64.30 oz (2 kilobars)

ii) Out of Scotia: 160,320.471 oz

total customer withdrawal: 160,384.771 oz

 

we had 0 customer deposits:

total customer deposit: nil oz

 

We had 1 adjustment:

i) Out of Scotia:  35,167.632 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer at Scotia.

 

 

Today, 0 notices was issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 0 contracts of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan dealer and 0 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan customer account

To calculate the total number of gold ounces standing for the March contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2361) x 100 oz  or  236,100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of April (440) and the number of notices served upon today (0) x 100 oz equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the initial standings for gold for the April contract month:

No of notices served so far (2361) x 100 oz  or ounces + {OI for the front month (440) – the number of  notices served upon today (0) x 100 oz which equal 280,100 oz or 8.712 tonnes of gold.

 

 

we lost 30 contracts or 3,000 oz will not stand for delivery in this April contract month.

 

This has been the lowest amount of gold ounces standing in an active month in quite some time.

 

 

 

 

Total dealer inventory: 603,095.383 or 18.758 tonnes

Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) = 7,751,973.171  oz. (241.18) tonnes)

 

 

Several months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today the total inventory rests at 241.18 tonnes for a loss of 62 tonnes over that period. Lately the removals  have been rising!

 

end

 

 

And now for silver

 

April silver initial standings

April 24 2015:

Silver

Ounces

Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory  nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory nil oz (Delaware)
No of oz served (contracts) 0 contracts  (nil oz)
No of oz to be served (notices) 22 contracts(110,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 494 contracts (2,470,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month  884,245.2 oz
Total accumulative withdrawal  of silver from the Customer inventory this month  11,176,887.9 oz

 

Today, we had 0 deposits into the dealer account:

total dealer deposit: nil   oz

 

we had 0 dealer withdrawal:

total dealer withdrawal: nil oz

 

We had 0 customer deposits:

 

 

total customer deposits: nil  oz

 

We had 0 customer withdrawals:

 

 

total withdrawals;  nil oz

 

we had 0 adjustments:

 

Total dealer inventory: 62.635 million oz

Total of all silver inventory (dealer and customer) 175.190 million oz

.

The total number of notices filed today is represented by 0 contracts for nil oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in April, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at (494) x 5,000 oz    = 2,470,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of April (22) and the number of notices served upon today (1) x 5000 oz equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the initial standings for silver for the April contract month:

494 (notices served so far) + { OI for front month of April(22) -number of notices served upon today (1} x 5000 oz =  2,580,000 oz standing for the April contract month.

 

we neither gained nor lost any silver ounces standing.

 

for those wishing to see the rest of data today see:

http://www.harveyorgan.wordpress.com orhttp://www.harveyorganblog.com

 

end

 

The two ETF’s that I follow are the GLD and SLV. You must be very careful in trading these vehicles as these funds do not have any beneficial gold or silver behind them. They probably have only paper claims and when the dust settles, on a collapse, there will be countless class action lawsuits trying to recover your lost investment.

There is now evidence that the GLD and SLV are paper settling on the comex.

***I do not think that the GLD will head to zero as we still have some GLD shareholders who think that gold is the right vehicle to be in even though they do not understand the difference between paper gold and physical gold. I can visualize demand coming to the buyers side:

i) demand from paper gold shareholders

ii) demand from the bankers who then redeem for gold to send this gold onto China

vs no sellers of GLD paper.

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD:

April 24. no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory at 742.35 tonnes

April 23. no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory at 742.35 tonnes

April 22. no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory at 742.35 tonnes

April 21.2015: a huge addition of 3.26 tonnes of gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 742.35 tonnes

April 20.2015: no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 739.06 tonnes

April 17.2015/ we had a huge addition of 3.01 tonnes of gold inventory at the GLD.  It looks like the raids at the GLD have stopped.

April 16.2015: no change in inventory at the GLD/total inventory at 736.08 tonnes

April 15/ a huge addition of 1.79 tonnes of gold inventory added to the GLD/ Inventory tonight at 736.08 tonnes

April 14/ no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 734.29 tonnes

April 13.2015: we had a withdrawal of 1.75 tonnes of GLD/Inventory at 734.29 tonnes

April 10/we had no change in inventory at the GLD/Inventory at 736.04 tonnes

April 9.2015 we have a huge addition of 2.98 tonnes of gold inventory/GLD inventory tonight stands at 736.04 tonnes

April 8.2015:no changes in the GLD/Inventory 733.06 tonnes

April 7. we had another withdrawal of 4.18 tonnes of gold at the GLD/Inventory rests at 733.06 tonnes

 

 

April 24/2015 /  we had no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory stands at 742.35 tonnes

The registered vaults at the GLD will eventually become a crime scene as real physical gold departs for eastern shores leaving behind paper obligations to the remaining shareholders. There is no doubt in my mind that GLD has nowhere near the gold that say they have and this will eventually lead to the default at the LBMA and then onto the comex in a heartbeat (same banks).

GLD : 742.35 tonnes.

 

end

And now for silver (SLV):

April 24/ we had a small withdrawal of 88,000 oz of silver at the SLV/326.226 million oz

April 23.no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/326.334 million oz of inventory

 April 22/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/326.334 million oz of inventory

April 21.2015/we had another huge addition of 1.434 million oz of silver into the SLV

April 20/ no change in silver inventory tonight/SLV 324.900 million oz.

April 17.2015: no change in silver inventory tonight at the SLV.324.900 million oz

April 16.2015: no change in silver inventory tonight at the SLV/324.900 million oz

April 15.2015: no change in silver inventory tonight at the SLV/324.900 million oz is the inventory tonight.

April 14. we had another addition of .67 million oz of silver at the SLV/Inventory rests at 324.900 million oz

April 13.2015: a huge addition of 2.391 million oz of silver at the SLV/Inventory rests at 324.230 million oz

April 10/ no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 321.839 million oz

April 9/2015 no changes in inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 321.839 million oz/

April 8.2015: no changes in inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests tonight at 321.839 million oz

April 7.2015: no changes in inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests tonight at 321.839 million oz

 

 

April 24/2015 we had a small change (withdrawal) in inventory at the SLV / inventory rests at 326.246 million oz

 

end

 

 

And now for our premiums to NAV for the funds I follow:

 

Central fund of Canada data not available today/

Note: Sprott silver fund now for the first time into the negative to NAV

Sprott and Central Fund of Canada.
(both of these funds have 100% physical metal behind them and unencumbered and I can vouch for that)

1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative 7.2% percent to NAV in usa funds and Negative 7.1% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!!!!!

Percentage of fund in gold 61.9%

Percentage of fund in silver:37.60%

cash .5%

( April 24/2015)

 

 

Sprott gold fund finally rising in NAV

2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): Premium to NAV rises to + 1.17%!!!!! NAV (April 24/2015)

3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV falls to -.42% to NAV(April 24/2015

Note: Sprott silver trust back  into positive territory at +1.17%.

Sprott physical gold trust is back into negative territory at -.42%

Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail.

 

 

end

 

And now for our COT reports:

First gold COT

Gold COT Report – Futures
Large Speculators Commercial Total
Long Short Spreading Long Short Long Short
184,567 83,322 50,963 126,107 231,113 361,637 365,398
Change from Prior Reporting Period
-174 -3,022 6,006 -4,853 -3,440 979 -456
Traders
135 87 71 54 46 223 177
 
Small Speculators  
Long Short Open Interest  
35,742 31,981 397,379  
1,311 2,746 2,290  
non reportable positions Change from the previous reporting period
COT Gold Report – Positions as of Tuesday, April 21, 2015

Our large specs:

Those large specs that have been long in gold pitched a tiny 174 contracts from their long side.

Those large specs that have been short in gold covered a rather large 3022 contracts from their short side.

Our commercials;

Those commercials that have been long in gold pitched a huge 4853 contracts from their long side

Those commercials that have been short in gold covered 3440 contracts from their short side.

Our small specs;
Those small specs that have been long in gold added 1311 contracts to their long side

Those small specs that have been short in gold added 2746 contracts to their short side.

 

Conclusion:  commercials go net short by 1413 contracts and thus bearish.

 

And now for silver

Silver COT Report: Futures
Large Speculators Commercial
Long Short Spreading Long Short
60,848 36,523 24,995 73,151 106,987
-569 9,651 -2,731 6,125 -3,904
Traders
89 53 51 41 45
Small Speculators Open Interest Total
Long Short 182,633 Long Short
23,639 14,128 158,994 168,505
1,931 1,740 4,756 2,825 3,016
non reportable positions Positions as of: 156 129
Tuesday, April 21, 2015   © SilverSee

Our large specs:

Those large specs that have been long in silver pitched a tiny 569 contracts from their long side.

Those large specs that have been short in silver added a whopping 9651 contracts to their short side??????

Our commercials;

Those commercials that have been long in silver added a large 6125 contracts to their long side.

Those commercials that have been short in silver covered a large 3904 contracts from their short side.

Our small specs:

Those small specs that have been long in silver added a large 1931 contracts to their long side

Those small specs that have been short in silver added 1740 contracts to their short side.

conclusion: commercials go net long by 10,025 contracts and silver falls??/

 

 

 

And now for your more important physical gold/silver stories:

 

Gold and silver trading early this morning

 

(courtesy Goldcore/Mark O’Byrne)

‘Timebomb’ UK Economy Will Explode After Election

UK economy a ’timebomb’ and will explode after election – Albert Edwards
– Telegraph warns of “Lehman Moment” stemming from possible election chaos
– Currency traders view pound as being particularly vulnerable
– Latest data shows UK poised to slip into deflation for the first time since 1960
– Polls place Labour and Tories neck and neck as election looms
– Hung parliament may force either side to enter coalition with potentially disliked partners
– Outright majority for either side would also lead to further uncertainty
Political uncertainty may impact sterling and UK assets
– UK has massive debt and vulnerable to Eurozone debt crisis

goldcore_chart1_24-04-15
With the British general election due in just under two weeks on May 7, concerns are growing about the outlook for the UK pound after the election and the long term outlook of the UK economy due to the extremely high levels of debt – particularly in the private sector in the UK.

UK debt has continued to rise throughout the recovery and has soared to an eye-watering £1.48 trillion. In recent days, a slew of foreign exchange analysts have warned that the pound is vulnerable to falling in value.

London’s Telegraph warned last week that election ‘chaos’ could lead to a “Lehman moment” for the pound. The pound has been in steady decline since July apparently due to traders pricing in uncertainty around the election. It is currently trading at $1.51, down from $1.71 in July.

USD per 1 GBP - January 1986 to April 2015 (Thomson Reuters)

The incumbent government have not reined in public and trade deficits and have been accused of juicing the property market and the economy to postpone a crisis until after the election. Indeed, the Guardian reports that the current account deficit “was the widest for more than 60 years in 2014″.

This is under a Tory government. The deficits would likely have been worse under a Labour or coalition government.

To compound the problem, data for February and March show that the UK is on the verge of deflation for the first time in over 25 years.

There was 0% inflation in both months. It was expected that data for March would show negative growth. In the event, the data was neutral which led to what is likely to be a temporary bounce for the pound.

The Telegraph quoted Forex.com analyst Kathleen Brooks as saying “If you got a big shock, say -0.3pc, I think that would be when the panic stations would ring and then we’ll get into a real parabolic phase when you just see the pound drop like a stone.”

Gold’s hedging properties would then come into their own and this would be bullish for gold in pound terms, after a period of consolidation around the £800 per ounce level in recent months.

Gold in Pounds - 10 Years

Election polls variously place both Labour and the Tories in the lead by a narrow margin. It looks likely that the UK is facing a hung parliament in May.

Under the British system only the party who gain 325 seats out of a total of 650 can form a government. Latest polls show that both the major parties are far short of the necessary majority.

A YouGov poll suggests both parties will have less than 290 seats and so concessions will have to be made with smaller parties to entice them into a coalition.

The same poll sees the Lib Dems gaining 53 seats which places them in the strongest position. Nick Clegg has indicated that he would enter into coalition with either major party and act as a buffer to protect against the excesses of either side.

In terms of seats the Scottish National Party are polling at 6 but at this point neither the Tories nor Labour appear willing to enter coalition with them with Cameron suggesting that the SNP would blackmail Labour if it formed a minority government with the SNP.

UKIP are polling well in terms of percentages although how it will translate into seats remains unclear. The YouGov poll sees UKIP with 13% of the vote. The two leading parties have around 35% while the LibDems score just 7%.

So UKIP are increasingly a force to be reckoned with. However, given that their policies are diametrically opposed to those of Labour and following a stream of defections from the Tories – and therefore posing a serious threat to the Conservatives – it seems certain that they will remain an opposition party.

Either way UKIP’s mandate is strengthening and the potential for a “Brexit” from the EU is a growing one.

However, much could change in the interim period. In the event of a hung parliament the incumbent Prime Minister will remain in office while negotiations begin between the various power brokers.

As London’s Independent explains,

“There is only one clear rule for forming a government in the hung Parliament, and even that is a loose one: the politician who can tell the Queen that he has a workable majority in the House of Commons is the one the Queen will authorise to form a government.”

Time will tell how it all unfolds. In the mean time the uncertainty stemming from a hung-parliament and a potential minority government is likely to affect confidence in the pound and UK assets as investors defer making decisions until Britain’s status within the EU, Scotland’s status within the UK and the fiscal policies of the next government are clarified.

Ironically, an outright majority for either side would also cause uncertainty for the pound.

The pall of uncertainty that would hang over a Tory government as the country awaits the “Brexit” referendum could gravely undermine the pound. Miliband’s more traditional Labour party is likely to exacerbate budget and current account deficits.

Albert Edwards,  Société Générale

Albert Edwards, head of global strategy at investment bank Société Générale has warned that the current coalition government has left a legacy of “grotesquely wide deficits” in both the public sector finances and on the UK’s current account – its overall trading position with the rest of the world.

He says that the Lib Dem Tory coalition has left the UK economy ‘up to its eyeballs in macro manure’ by failing to cut deficit, sterling will suffer and that the UK economy is a “ticking timebomb”.

Given the fragile nature of the London property market, the UK economy and uncertainty regarding a Grexit and new Eurozone debt crisis, such high levels of uncertainty could not come at a worse time.

Given the interlinked nature of so many financial institutions a “Lehman moment” for the pound and the UK could lead to widespread contagion and quickly morph into a Lehman moment for the world.

When this is viewed in the context of the widespread risks to the financial system globally, it would be prudent for UK investors and investors globally to have an allocation to physical gold to hedge against these risks.

Breaking Gold News and Research Here


MARKET UPDATE

Today’s AM LBMA Gold Price was USD 1,192.15, EUR 1,097.49 and GBP 788.04 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM LBMA Gold Price was USD 1,187.75, EUR 1,107.92 and GBP 792.31per ounce.

Gold climbed 0.67 percent or $7.90 and closed at $1,194.70 an ounce yesterday, while silver rose 0.63 percent or $0.10 closing at $15.89 an ounce.

goldcore_chart4_24-04-15

Spot gold in Singapore  was $1,194.35 an ounce near the end of day trading and fell slightly more in European trading.

Gold looks set for its third weekly drop in spite of more mixed U.S. economic data. The weekly losses have been very marginal but this is bearish technically. Gold’s likely third lower weekly close and the poor technicals mean that gold looks likely to succumb to further weakness in the short term.

Gold is also marginally lower in euros and pounds this week. The short term trend is lower and momentum is a powerful thing.

Gold in U.S. Dollars - 1 Month

The same is the case with silver which is heading for 2.6 per cent loss for the week. Contrarian investors see silver as great value below $16 per ounce and are buying the dip. We continue to see flows into silver while gold has seen mixed flows with some buying this week but nearly as much liquidations as some gold owners throw in the towel.

U.S. weekly unemployment claims rose more than expected to 295,000 in April, against an estimate of 288,000. U.S. new home sales for March were lower than the previous month at  481,000 below the forecast of 514,000 and 11.4 percent less than last month.

 Potential ‘Grexit’ is still weighing on the markets and things appear to be getting worse between Greece and its creditors.

Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis was heavily criticised by his euro-area colleagues today amid mounting frustration at what they say is his refusal to deliver measures to fix his country’s economy and release financial aid, “three people familiar with the talks” told Bloomberg.

Greece offered further concessions today on reforms demanded by international lenders in return for new funding before Athens runs out of money, but euro zone creditors said negotiations needed to speed up to get a deal done by June.