April 30/Greece struggles to pay its pensioners/Youth unemployment in Europe still over 50%/USA navy to escort cargo ships through the Persian gulf in full view of Iranian ships/

Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen:

 

 

 

Here are the following closes for gold and silver today:

 

Gold:  $1182.40 down $27.40 (comex closing time)

Silver: $16.13 down 55 cents (comex closing time)

 

In the access market 5:15 pm

Gold $1184.00

Silver: $16.13

 

 

Gold/silver trading:  see kitco charts on the right side of the commentary.

Tuesday was options expiry on the comex. Today was options expiry on the LBMA and on the OTC market in London.  The options on the OTC is far greater than on comex so the boys always whack on the first day notice which is the expiry for the big London options for the precious metals.

Following is a brief outline on gold and silver comex figures for today:

 

At the gold comex today,  we had a poor delivery day, registering 0 notices served for nil oz.  Silver comex filed with 1481 notices for 7,405,000  oz .

 

Several months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today the total inventory rests at 242.27 tonnes for a loss of 61 tonnes over that period. Lately the removals have been rising!

 

 

In silver, the open interest fell by 2,859 contracts despite the fact that Wednesday’s silver price was up by 12 cents. It sure looks like we had some short covering by the crooked bankers. Also lately it is the custom for OI to liquidate somewhat once we get into an active delivery month. The total silver OI continues to remain extremely high with today’s reading at 176,552 contracts maintaining itself at  multi-year highs. The front April month is now off the board.  We are now at multi year high in the total OI complex despite a record low price. This dichotomy has been happening now for quite a while and defies logic. There is no doubt that the silver situation is scaring our bankers to no end. The COT report on Friday in silver showed the commercials going long in silver in a big way and the large specs going short.  Is a short squeeze coming?

 

 

In silver we had 1481 notices served upon for 7,405,000 oz.

 

 

In gold,  the total comex gold OI rests tonight at 400,337 for a loss of 3226 contracts as gold was down by 3.80 yesterday. We had 0 notices served upon for 1200 oz.

 

 

Today, we no change in gold inventory at the GLD/  Gold Inventory rests at 739.06  tonnes.

 

In silver, / we had no change in  silver inventory to the SLV/ and thus the inventory tonight is 327.673 million oz

 

We have a few important stories to bring to your attention today…

 

1. Today we had the open interest in silver fall by 2859 contracts despite the rise in price yesterday (12 cents).  The OI for gold fell by 3226 contracts down to 400,337 contracts as the price of gold was down by $3.80 yesterday. GLD remained constant but SLV lost close to 3.0 million oz

(report Harvey)

 

2,One important commentaries on Greece today:

 

Greece scrambles to pay pensioners as they ran out of money.

(zero hedge)

 3. Russia lowers its interest rate by 150 basis points
(zero hedge)
4. European unemployment of youth remains above 50%

(zero hedge)

5. Bill Holter’s address to us today.

(Bill Holter/Miles Franklin)

6. USA Navy sends ships to guard it’s cargo ships through the Persian gulf in full view of Iranian war ships.

(zero hedge)

we have these and other stories for you tonight

 

Let us now head over to the comex and assess trading over there today.

Here are today’s comex results:

 

The total gold comex open interest fell by 3226 contracts from  403,563 down to 400,337 as gold was down by $3.80 yesterday (at the comex close). We are off the active delivery month of April as we enter May.   Thus our next non active delivery month is May and here the OI fell by 13 contracts down to 226.  The next big active delivery contract month is June and here the OI fell by 5041 contracts down to 253,725. June is the second biggest delivery month on the comex gold calendar. The estimated volume today (which is just comex sales during regular business hours of 8:20 until 1:30 pm est) was good at 211,862. The confirmed volume yesterday ( which includes the volume during regular business hours + access market sales the previous day) was poor at 147,684 contracts. Today we had 0 notices filed for nil oz.

 

And now for the wild silver comex results.  Silver OI fell by 6461 contracts from 179,411 down to 176,552 despite the fact that the price of silver was up in price by 12 cents, with respect to yesterday’s trading.  Somebody big is willing to take on JPMorgan. We must have had some guys leaving the silver arena as they did not like what they saw. We also are witnessing the OI contracting once an active delivery month is upon us whether it is silver or gold. We are off the non active delivery month of April  as we head into the active delivery month of May. In our May delivery month the OI fell by 5710 contracts down to 3,371. Since this is first day notice we have 16.855 million oz of silver standing for delivery. The estimated volume today was good at 67,032 contracts (just comex sales during regular business hours. The confirmed volume yesterday (regular plus access market) came in at 75,344 contracts which is excellent in volume except we had many rollovers. We had 1,481 notices filed for 7,405,000 oz today.

 

 

may initial standings

April 30.2015

Gold

Ounces

Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz  nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz  nil
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz 32,116.74 oz (Delaware,HSBC)
No of oz served (contracts) today 0 contracts (nil oz)
No of oz to be served (notices)  226 contracts(22,600) oz
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month 0 contracts(nil)
Total accumulative withdrawals  of gold from the Dealers inventory this month

Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month

Today, we had 0 dealer transaction

total Dealer withdrawals: nil oz

 

we had 0 dealer deposit

 

total dealer deposit: nil oz

 

we had 0 customer withdrawals

 

 

total customer withdrawal: nil oz

 

we had 2 customer deposits

 

i) Into Delaware: 99.98 oz

ii) Into HSBC: 32,016.76 oz

total customer deposit: 32,116.74 oz

 

We had 1 major adjustment:

i) out of JPMorgan dealer vault:  32,627.066 oz was removed and placed into the customer account of JPM.

Today, 0 notices was issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 0 contracts of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan dealer and 0 notices were stopped (received) by JPMorgan customer account

To calculate the total number of gold ounces standing for the May contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (0) x 100 oz  or  nil oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of May (226) and the number of notices served upon today (0) x 100 oz equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the initial standings for gold for the May contract month:

No of notices served so far (0) x 100 oz  or ounces + {OI for the front month (226) – the number of  notices served upon today (0) x 100 oz which equals 22,600 oz standing so far in this month of May. (.702 tonnes of gold)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total dealer inventory: 571,168.307 or 17.76 tonnes

Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) = 7,789,006.901. (242.27) tonnes)

 

 

Several months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today the total inventory rests at 242.27 tonnes for a loss of 61 tonnes over that period. Lately the removals  have been rising!

 

end

 

 

And now for silver

 

May silver initial standings

April 30 2015:

Silver

Ounces

Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory 933,021.899 oz (Delaware,Brinks,HSBC)
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory  nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory 993.500 oz (Delaware)
No of oz served (contracts) 1481 contracts  (7,405,000 oz)
No of oz to be served (notices) 1890 contracts (9,450,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 1481 contracts (7,405,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
Total accumulative withdrawal  of silver from the Customer inventory this month 933,021.899  oz

 

Today, we had 0 deposits into the dealer account:

total dealer deposit: nil   oz

 

we had 0 dealer withdrawal:

total dealer withdrawal: nil oz

 

We had 1 customer deposits:

i) Into Delaware:  993.500 oz

 

 

total customer deposits: 933.500  oz

We had 3 customer withdrawals:

i) Out of Delaware: 1053.869 oz

ii) Out of Brinks; 860,142.660 oz

iii) Out of HSBC: 71,825.37 oz

total withdrawals;  933,021.899 oz

we had 3 adjustments:

i) Out of CNT:  91,688.500 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer account of CNT

ii) Out of HSBC: 4819.15 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account of HSBC

iii) Out of JPM;  546,104.100 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account of JPM.

Total dealer inventory: 62.176 million oz

Total of all silver inventory (dealer and customer) 174.380 million oz

.

The total number of notices filed today is represented by 1481 contracts for 7,405,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in April, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at (1481) x 5,000 oz    = 7,405,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of April (3371) and the number of notices served upon today (1481) x 5000 oz equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the initial standings for silver for the May contract month:

1481 (notices served so far) + { OI for front month of April(3371) -number of notices served upon today (1481} x 5000 oz = 16,855,000 oz of silver  standing for the May contract month.

 

for those wishing to see the rest of data today see:

http://www.harveyorgan.wordpress.com orhttp://www.harveyorganblog.com

 

end

 

The two ETF’s that I follow are the GLD and SLV. You must be very careful in trading these vehicles as these funds do not have any beneficial gold or silver behind them. They probably have only paper claims and when the dust settles, on a collapse, there will be countless class action lawsuits trying to recover your lost investment.

There is now evidence that the GLD and SLV are paper settling on the comex.

***I do not think that the GLD will head to zero as we still have some GLD shareholders who think that gold is the right vehicle to be in even though they do not understand the difference between paper gold and physical gold. I can visualize demand coming to the buyers side:

i) demand from paper gold shareholders

ii) demand from the bankers who then redeem for gold to send this gold onto China

vs no sellers of GLD paper.

 

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD:

April 30/ no change in gold inventory/739.06 tonnes of gold at the GLD

April 29/no change in gold inventory/739.06 tonnes of gold at the GLD

April 28/ no change in inventory/739.06 tonnes of gold at the GLD

April 27. we lost 3.29 tonnes of gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests tonight at 739.06 tonnes

April 24. no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory at 742.35 tonnes

April 23. no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory at 742.35 tonnes

April 22. no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory at 742.35 tonnes

April 21.2015: a huge addition of 3.26 tonnes of gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 742.35 tonnes

April 20.2015: no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 739.06 tonnes

April 17.2015/ we had a huge addition of 3.01 tonnes of gold inventory at the GLD.  It looks like the raids at the GLD have stopped.

April 16.2015: no change in inventory at the GLD/total inventory at 736.08 tonnes

April 15/ a huge addition of 1.79 tonnes of gold inventory added to the GLD/ Inventory tonight at 736.08 tonnes

April 14/ no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 734.29 tonnes

April 13.2015: we had a withdrawal of 1.75 tonnes of GLD/Inventory at 734.29 tonnes

April 30/2015 /  we had no change in tonnage of gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory stands at 739.06 tonnes

The registered vaults at the GLD will eventually become a crime scene as real physical gold departs for eastern shores leaving behind paper obligations to the remaining shareholders. There is no doubt in my mind that GLD has nowhere near the gold that say they have and this will eventually lead to the default at the LBMA and then onto the comex in a heartbeat (same banks).

GLD : 739.06 tonnes.

end

 

And now for silver (SLV):

April 30/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/327.673 million oz

April 29/ we lost 2.963 million oz of silver inventory from the SLV/inventory tonight 327.673 million oz

April 28/another huge addition of 1.434 million oz to the SLV/Inventory stands tonight at 330.636 million oz

April 27.we had a huge addition of 2.976 million oz to the SLV/Inventory stands tonight at 329.202 million oz

April 24/ we had a small withdrawal of 88,000 oz of silver at the SLV/326.226 million oz

April 23.no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/326.334 million oz of inventory

 April 22/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/326.334 million oz of inventory

April 21.2015/we had another huge addition of 1.434 million oz of silver into the SLV

April 20/ no change in silver inventory tonight/SLV 324.900 million oz.

April 17.2015: no change in silver inventory tonight at the SLV.324.900 million oz

April 16.2015: no change in silver inventory tonight at the SLV/324.900 million oz

April 15.2015: no change in silver inventory tonight at the SLV/324.900 million oz is the inventory tonight.

April 30/2015 we had no change in inventory at the SLV  / inventory rests at 327.673 million

 

end

 

And now for our premiums to NAV for the funds I follow:

Central fund of Canada data not available today/

Note: Sprott silver fund now for the first time into the negative to NAV

Sprott and Central Fund of Canada.
(both of these funds have 100% physical metal behind them and unencumbered and I can vouch for that)

1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative 7.2% percent to NAV in usa funds and Negative 7.7% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!!!!!

Percentage of fund in gold 60.9%

Percentage of fund in silver:38.7%

cash .4%

( April 30/2015)

Sprott gold fund finally rising in NAV

2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): Premium to NAV falls to – 0.02%!!!!! NAV (April 30/2015)

3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV falls to -.37% to NAV(April 30/2015

Note: Sprott silver trust back  into positive territory at -0.02%.

Sprott physical gold trust is back into negative territory at -.37%

Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail.

end

 

Your major physical gold stories for this morning.

Gold trading early this morning:

 

(courtesy Mark O’Byrne)

U.S. and UK GDP Fall Heralds Recession – ZIRP to Continue

– U.S. first quarter GDP grew 0.2%, down from 2.2% last quarter
– U.K. GDP for first quarter was 0.3%, last than half the previous quarter’s figure
– Large inventory build up in the U.S. may mask deep recession
– Zero percent interest policies (ZIRP) to continue despite suggestions to contrary
– Global economy vulnerable to recession and depression

Gold in US Dollars - 5 Years

U.S. and U.K. GDP slowed very sharply in first quarter of 2015. Latest data confirms the rapid slowdown despite stock markets booming in the UK, U.S. and globally.

This highlights the major disconnect between the real economy and a financial sector intoxicated by easy money.

U.S. GDP figures fell sharply from last quarter when the economy grew at 2.2%. GDP for the first three months of this year fell to 0.2% with some analysts suggesting the real figure should be in negative territory.

The news of a slowing U.S. economy had a negative impact on sentiment in the export dependent Asian economies and indeed on vulnerable EU economies.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 1.1 percent with South Korean, Australian, Chinese and Hong Kong shares suffering losses as did European indices.

The abysmal U.S. GDP figure was buoyed by the biggest inventory build in history. GDP grew by $6.3 billion in Q1 2015 whereas unsold inventories increased by a phenomenal $121.9 billion.

The impact of poor weather on Q1 activity has been greatly exaggerated. It appears that the strength of the USD was more important as exports dropped more than 7 percent.

Investment rose 2% driven by inventories and residential investment, the latter up 1.3 percent. Non-residential investment, however, dropped 3.4 percent.

If inventories had remained flat U.S. GDP would have come in at below -2 percent. A massive buildup in private sector inventories added 0.74 percent to the GDP number. Companies kept on stockpiling wares, as the consumption of goods only added 0.05 to GDP. The rest went to inventories, and will eventually have to be sold which is a negative for GDP.

Why does the selling of inventories actually subtract from GDP? The product has already been produced, and if it’s sold, it takes away consumption from products which may have been produced instead. Also, it can only be counted once as a positive, not twice.

Cycles in inventory buildup are normal, but just over the last three years, the United States has racked up $1.1 trillion in inventories, or 6.2 percent of GDP. If the other parts of the economy don’t pick up the slack, the destocking process is likely to be very painful indeed.

However the inventories scenario plays out it is clear that the “recovery” which has not been felt by the “man in the street” and the real economy is now once again on the ropes.

The statement of the Fed’s FOMC meeting which concluded yesterday was notable in that the heretofore panglossian narrative has shifted with acknowledgement that the U.S. labour market is not as robust as previously believed.

Reuter’s quote a Rabobank note to it’s clients,

“All in all, the FOMC statement gave a balanced assessment of the current economic slowdown and the Committee remains very much in a data-dependent mode. However, the balanced and cautious tone in the statement is a far cry from the optimism and (over) confidence that we have seen in previous statements.”

It would appear that the much anticipated hike in interest rates will not occur in June.

As Bloomberg reports,

“Traders have set back bets for when U.S. policy makers will raise borrowing costs as officials such as Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart and Fed Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren said this month policy should stay accommodative.”

In the same period U.K. GDP fell by almost half to 0.3%. The figures, which some think will impact the Tories coming less than two weeks before the general election.

Chancellor for the Exchequer, George Osborne tried desperately to make the most of the news, stating that it was “good news” that the economy continued to grow adding, “This is a critical moment and a reminder you can’t take recovery for granted.”

Given growing weakness in the U.S., UK and especially Chinese economies, not too mention many very vulnerable EU economies, there is the continuing risk of a major recession on the horizon. Indeed given debt levels are higher today than in 2008 there is the risk of a global depression.

goldcore_chart2_30-04-15
In this environment, it is very likely that ZIRP and NIRP and the ongoing debasement of paper and electronic currencies will continue.

Physical gold will hold up well in such an environment due to its traditional function as a store of value.    

Important Guide: 7 Key Gold Storage Must Haves

MARKET UPDATE

Today’s AM LBMA Gold Price was USD 1,204.30, EUR 1,075.99 and GBP 779.73 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM LBMA Gold Price was USD 1,204.80, EUR 1,095.45 and GBP 783.99 per ounce.

Gold fell 0.68 percent or $8.20 and closed at $1,204.00 an ounce yesterday, while silver slipped 0.48 percent or $0.08 closing at $16.53 an ounce.

Gold in US Dollars - 5 Years

In Asia overnight, Singapore gold prices traded flat at $1,204.20 an ounce near the end of day trading and gold is marginally lower in late morning trading in London.

Gold capped losses from after the Fed statement which did not mention dates for an interest rate hike, but rather stressed the importance of economic data and viewed the recent U.S. economic slowdown as transitory.

The U.S. GDP grew 0.2 percent in the first quarter of this year, well below the expected 1.0 percent and down from 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter of last year.  More U.S. employment data is released today.

In late morning trading in Europe gold is off 0.12 percent at $1,203.10 an ounce. Silver is up 0.05 percent at $16.56 an ounce while platinum is down 0.17 percent at $1,148.50 an ounce.

Breaking Gold News and Research Here

 

end

(courtesy Chris Powell/GATA)

Central banks consider joining the LBMA. (So much for transparency.)

Section:

4p ET Thurday, April 30, 2015

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Central banks have expressed interest in joining the London Bullion Market Association, which pretty much runs the London gold market, according to a report by the LBMA’s chief executive officer in the May edition of its newsletter, The Alchemist.

Summarizing developments with the association’s membership committee, LBMA Chief Executive Ruth Crowell writes: “The committee continues to review a growing number of membership applications, which demonstrates the growing relevancy and diversity of the association. Two new mining companies have joined the ranks of the association. The LBMA welcomes other producers to join and have a voice in the London market. Another demonstration of the diverse reach of the association is the recent interest expressed by some central banks.”

Crowell’s report was called to GATA’s attention today by our consultant, gold researcher Ronan Manly. It appears on Page 24 of The Alchemist, which is posted in PDF format at GATA’s Internet site here:

http://www.gata.org/files/LBMAAlchemist-May2005.pdf

In a statement to the Bank of England’s Fair and Effective Market Review Committee in January —

http://www.gata.org/node/15241

— Crowell wrote that “the role of the central banks in the bullion market may preclude ‘total’ transparency, at least at public level,” so presumably the more central banks are directly involved with the LBMA, the less transparent the London gold market will become.

Will the LBMA and the central banks that join it even announce the new memberships? Would such an announcement, confirming the surreptitious involvement in the gold market by central banks, be reported by mainstream financial news organizations? Would any gold market analyst, financial journalist, or gold mining company executive wonder, aloud or just to himself, what central banks are doing in the gold market and what objectives they are pursuing? Would any of them try actually putting a question about it to a central bank?

Or are central banks and their agent bullion banks supremely confident that all those people will obediently avert their gaze and that the rigging of the gold market will remain an open secret that simply cannot be discussed in polite company?

All GATA can do is keep compiling and clamoring about the documentation of central bank rigging of the gold market and other markets —

http://www.gata.org/taxonomy/term/21

— and note that the emperor wears no clothes.

If you’re inclined to support GATA’s work, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc

 

 

end.

It seems that only mining company that is doing OK in this horrible environment is Agnico eagle:

They just brought out their earnings:

(courtesy Agnico Eagle)

Agnico Eagle Reports First Quarter 2015 Operating and Financial Results – Strong Operational Performance Drives Record Gold Production and Low Costs – Amaruq and Kittila Drill Programs Yield Positive Results

PR Newswire

Stock Symbol:AEM (NYSE and TSX)

(All amounts expressed in U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted)

TORONTO, April 30, 2015 /PRNewswire/ – Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (NYSE:AEM, TSX:AEM) (“Agnico Eagle” or the “Company”) today reported quarterly net income of $28.7 million, or net income of $0.13 per share for the first quarter of 2015.  This result includes a non-cash foreign currency translation loss on deferred tax liabilities of $23.3 million ($0.11 per share), various mark-to-market and other adjustment gains of $22.7 million ($0.11 per share), unrealized losses on financial instruments of $13.6 million ($0.06 per share), non-cash foreign currency translation gains of $11.7 million ($0.05 per share), non-cash stock option expense of $7.8 million ($0.04 per share) and non-recurring gains of $7.6 million ($0.03). Excluding these items would result in adjusted net income of $31.4 million ($0.15 per share) for the first quarter of 2015.  In the first quarter of 2014, the Company reported net income of $97.1 million or net income of $0.56 per share.

First quarter 2015 cash provided by operating activities was $143.5 million ($176.8 million before changes in non-cash components of working capital).  This compares to cash provided by operating activities of $250.4 million in the first quarter of 2014 ($207.2 million before changes in non-cash components of working capital).  The decrease in cash provided by operating activities before changes in working capital during the current period was largely due to lower realized gold and silver prices (down 8% and 17% respectively, period over period) and timing of sales which resulted in lower sales volumes relative to the ounces produced during the quarter.

“The year is off to a good start with continued strong operating performance from all of our mines.  This performance coupled with lower fuel prices and weaker local currencies, has also resulted in better than expected operating costs”, said Sean Boyd, Chief Executive Officer.  “This year is also shaping up to be an exciting time on the exploration front, as we have drills operating at most of our mines and development projects.  Drilling at Kittila has potentially outlined a new zone parallel to the main mineralized trend, and infill drilling is underway at Amaruq, with initial results suggesting good potential to expand the resource base and ultimately enhance our Nunavut platform”, added Mr. Boyd

First Quarter 2015 highlights include:

  • Record quarterly gold production – Payable gold production1in Q1 2015 was 404,210 ounces of gold at total cash costs2 per ounce on a by-product basis of $588 and all-in sustaining costs3(“AISC”) of $804 per ounce
  • Record quarterly precious metal production in Mexico – In Q1 2015, payable gold and silver production was 89,077 ounces and 663,000 ounces respectively.  Total cash costs per ounce of gold on a by-product basis from our Mexico operations averaged $387
  • 2015 guidance reiterated – Expected production for 2015 is maintained at approximately 1.6 million ounces with total cash costs on a by-product basis of $610 to $630 per ounce and AISC of approximately $880 to $900 per ounce
  • Infill drilling at Amaruq continues to yield positive results – Drilling resumed in late March, and holes drilled from the ice on Whale Lake have yielded promising results including 14.0 grams per tonne (“g/t”) gold over 18.9 meters, in one of four lenses cut by the same drill hole (AMQ15-168), as well as 15.3 g/t gold over 8.9 meters in another hole (AMQ15-172)
  • Drilling at Kittila yields deepest Suuri Trend intersection to date and indications of a new parallel zone – Drilling of the Suuri Trend below the Roura area has returned 5.3 g/t gold over 10 meters at a vertical depth of approximately 1.6 km (ROD14-004F). Drilling has also shown indications of a new parallel zone 150 meters east of the main zone with intersections including 7.0 g/t gold over 7.0 meters at almost 1.3 km depth (ROD14-005)
  • Continued focus on a strong balance sheet – In Q1 2015, $100 million was repaid under the Company’s credit facility
  • A quarterly dividend of $0.08 per share declared
______________________________________
1 Payable production of a mineral means the quantity of mineral produced during a period contained in products that are sold by the Company whether such products are shipped during the period or held as inventory at the end of the period.
2 Total cash costs per ounce is a non-GAAP measure.  For a reconciliation to production costs, see “Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Performance Measures – Reconciliation of Production Costs to Total Cash Costs per Ounce of Gold Produced by Mine” below.  Total cash costs per ounce of gold produced is presented on both a by-product basis (deducting by-product metal revenues from production costs) and co-product basis (before by-product metal revenues). Total cash costs per ounce of gold produced on a by-product basis is calculated by adjusting production costs as recorded in the consolidated statements of income (loss) for by-product revenues, unsold concentrate inventory production costs, smelting, refining and marketing charges and other adjustments, and then dividing by the number of ounces of gold produced. Total cash costs per ounce of gold produced on a co-product basis is calculated in the same manner as total cash costs per ounce of gold produced on a by-product basis except that no adjustment for by-product metal revenues is made. See “Note Regarding Certain Measures of Performance”. For information about the Company’s total cash costs per ounce on a co-product basis please see “Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Performance Measures”.
3 All-in-sustaining costs is a non-GAAP measure and is used to show the full cost of gold production from current operations. For a reconciliation to production costs, see “Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Performance Measures – Reconciliation of Production Costs to All-In Sustaining costs” below. The Company calculates All-in sustaining costs per ounce of gold produced as the aggregate of total cash costs on a by-product basis, sustaining capital expenditures (including capitalized exploration), general and administrative expenses (including stock option expense) and reclamation expenses divided by the amount of gold produced.  All-in sustaining costs per ounce of gold produced on a co-product basis is calculated in the same manner as total cash costs per ounce of gold produced on a by-product basis except that no adjustment for by-product metal revenues is made.  The Company’s methodology for calculating all-in sustaining costs may not be similar to the methodology used by other producers that disclose all-in sustaining costs. See “Note Regarding Certain Measures of Performance”.  The Company may change the methodology it uses to calculate all-in sustaining costs in the future, including in response to the adoption of formal industry guidance regarding this measure by the World Gold Council.

First Quarter Financial and Production Highlights

In the first quarter of 2015, strong operational performance continued at the Company’s mines, which led to record quarterly production.

Payable gold production in the first quarter of 2015 was a record 404,210 ounces compared to 366,421 ounces in the first quarter of 2014.  The higher level of production in the 2015 period was primarily due to the inclusion of Canadian Malartic, a full quarter of production at La India, increased throughput levels at Goldex, increased mill capacity at Kittila and higher grades and better recoveries at Pinos Altos.   A detailed description of the production and cost performance of each mine is set out below.

Total cash costs per ounce on a by-product basis for the first quarter of 2015 were higher at $588 versus $537 per ounce for the first quarter 2014.  Total cash costs per ounce on a by-product basis in the first quarter of 2015 were negatively impacted by lower zinc and copper production and lower realized silver and copper prices (down 17% and 21%, respectively, period over period) which were slightly offset by higher production levels at most of the Company’s mines and weaker local currencies (C$ 2% lower, EURO 4% lower and MXP 15% lower when compared to the 2015 currency price assumptions, see February 11, 2015 news release) compared to the first quarter of 2014.

Costs in the 2014 period were positively affected by record production and lower costs at Meadowbank (which processed the remaining high grade ore at the Portage and Goose deposits) and higher grades at LaRonde compared to the current period.

AISC for the first quarter of 2015 was $804 per ounce on a by-product basis, which is below 2015 guidance of $880 to $900 per ounce on a by-product basis. The lower AISC is primarily due to lower than forecast total cash costs per ounce on a by-product basis in 2015 and timing of capital expenditures.

Cash Position Remains Strong and Debt Levels Reduced

Cash and cash equivalents and short term investments decreased to $172.1 million at March 31, 2015, from the December 31, 2014 balance of $215.3 million.  The outstanding balance on the $1.2 billion credit facility was reduced from $500 million at December 31, 2014 to $400 million at March 31, 2015.

Total capital expenditures made by the Company in the first quarter of 2015 were $82.9 million, including $16.6 million at LaRonde, $12.0 million at Pinos Altos, $10.7 million at Canadian Malartic, $10.4 million at Kittila, $10.0 million at Goldex, $9.4 million at Meadowbank, $8.4 million at Meliadine, $2.8 million at Lapa, $2.3 million at La India and $0.3 million at Creston Mascota.

Sustaining capital expenditures made by the Company in the first quarter were $60.8 million, including $16.6 million at LaRonde, $9.4 million at Meadowbank, $9.2 million at Canadian Malartic, $8.9 million at Kittila, $7.0 million at Pinos Altos, $4.3 million at Goldex, $2.8 million at Lapa, $2.3 million at La India and $0.3 million at Creston Mascota.

The Company has adopted a phased approach to capital and exploration spending in 2015 and anticipates the potential for increased expenditures on select projects (if merited based on positive results).  Projects that may warrant additional spending include Amaruq, El Barqueno, Goldex and Meliadine.

As of March 31, 2015, the Company had drawn down $400 million on its $1.2 billion credit facility.  This results in available lines of approximately $800 million, excluding another $300 million available in an accordion feature. 

First Quarter 2015 Results Conference Call and Webcast Tomorrow

end

Bill Holter delivers another dandy commentary:

(courtesy Bill Holter/Miles Franklin)

It;s ugly if you look under the hood.

 

My plan for today was to write a very basic piece hitched to the one written yesterday “the money has to go somewhere”.  The plan was to point out that gold (and silver) will be the final destination for monies dislodged from crashing markets all over the world.  Along came the Q1 figures for U.S. GDP, a disaster on many levels.  So switching gears, let’s look at the first quarter, how quickly the economy has deteriorated and what it means in the future and in relation to the past.  I do plan to tie this together at the end because no matter how you look at it, gold is a magnet for what will be shaken loose.
  Q1 GDP came in at .2% growth, this was a whopping $6 billion worth of growth for the quarter http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/04/29/the-u-s-will-release-economic-growth-this-morning/ .  This number was an obvious disappointment as estimates were around 1%+.  Of course the apologists were immediately out in full force to remind us of how terrible the winter was and “weather” was to blame.  I would ask, isn’t that what “seasonal adjustments” are for?  Steve Liesman of CNBC even posed the question why seasonal adjustments are “not working”.  The obvious answer is because you can only stretch, massage and outright lie about economic numbers so far before you cannot any longer …because even the blind will see it.
  Breaking the quarter down and looking under the hood, were it not for the biggest inventory build of any quarter in history, the quarter would have shown a negative 2.6% growth rate http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-29/biggest-inventory-build-history-prevents-total-collapse-us-economy .  What exactly does this mean?  It means the consumer or final user has shut off their purchases.  It means “stuff” was produced but wasn’t sold.  The inventory build number was over $120 billion, can this happen again in the 2nd quarter?  And what if the end buyer keeps their pocketbook shut again?  Something must give, either the inventory gets sold or the producers must cut back production drastically.
  It is worth mentioning that QE 3, the “final QE” ended in the fourth quarter.  Is this an example of the economy convulsing because the juice was taken away?  And let’s not forget, today (yesterday) was a Fed meeting and announcement, can they possibly even hint about raising rates and actually withdrawing some of the previous “juice”?  Another “blame” is being pinned on the strong dollar, can the Fed really raise rates and put a further bid under the dollar?
  What does this mean for the future of the economy and more importantly the financial markets?  The markets are at record high valuations, the news of an economy going in reverse can only augur for lower earnings.  The strong dollar can only augur for a Fed who doesn’t want a stronger dollar.  The leverage in the financial system is so thin already, can the risk be taken that something will snap?  I don’t believe so, I also believe it will not be long before QE 4 gets floated seriously and then implemented.
  As I wrote yesterday, “the money has to go somewhere”.  It looks to me like some sort of come to Jesus moment is close in both the economy and the markets.  If you have been awake, you understand the economic and financial systems, are dichotomized yet so intertwined, a spark anywhere means a fire everywhere!  Literally hundreds of $trillions will be shaken, some of it “shaken loose” and will look for a safe place to hide.
  All the gold ever mined in history is worth some $6 trillion, what do you suppose will happen when $10’s of trillions seek the safe harbor of gold?  No matter how you look at it, the Fed is in a box of their own making, any action or inaction has the possibility of shaking the tree and dislodging capital, forcing it to look for safety.  The result will be your “no offer” moment in time.  As capital floods toward the only monetary asset that cannot default, owners will pull their wares off the shelf and withdraw their offers.  This only makes sense because the movements will be so large and so fast, no one will even know what various assets are worth or where they will settle until after the dust clears.
  I leave you with this thought, if you need to build a fire or light a cigarette, how much would you pay for a BIC lighter?  The same could be asked about “money”, if one needs to put capital somewhere that cannot ever default (which is gold only), what is one ounce of gold worth?  It is crystal clear to me, when this question gets asked, it may take some time for the physical market to clear and give an answer!  The true value of gold will shine as a vortex of defaults occurs.  Regards,  Bill Holter
Early morning trading from Asia and Europe last night:

1. Stocks lower on major Chinese bourses as bubblemania is the name of the game in Shanghai (down) and Hong Kong down  /Japan bourse down 538.94 or 2.69% /yen rises to 118.94/Shanghai to allow short selling to stop their bubble/China then cuts RRR by 1% and Chinese authorities sooth fears that they want to prick that huge bubble.

 

1b Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/yuan strengthens to 6.1988

2 Nikkei down 538.94 or 2.69%

3. Europe stocks mixed/USA dollar index down to 94.78/Euro rises to 1.1195/

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: a big jump to .34% !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 118.94/

3c Nikkei still  above 20,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI  58.92  Brent 65.77

3f Gold down/Yen up

3gJapan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion.  Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa.

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt.  Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt. Last night Japan refused to increase it’s QE

3h  Oil up  for WTI and up for Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10 yr bund rises to 29.0 basis points. German bunds in negative yields from 5 years out.

Except Greece which sees its 2 year rate rises quite a bit to 21.85%/Greek stocks up .33%/ still expect continual bank runs on Greek banks.

3j  Greek 10 year bond yield:  11.28% (up 20 in basis point in yield)

3k Gold at 1202.80 dollars/silver $16.55

3l USA vs Russian rouble;  (Russian rouble down 1  rouble/dollar in value) 51.55 , the rouble is still the best acting currency this year!!

3m oil into the 58 dollar handle for WTI and 65 handle for Brent/Saudi Arabia increases production to drive out competition.

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation.  This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/China may be forced to do QE!! (last Monday they lowered its RRR it is effectively doing QE)

30  SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF.  It is not working:  USA/SF this morning 93.63 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies.  Euro vs SF is 1.0470 well below the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister.

3p Britain’s serious fraud squad investigating the Bank of England/ the British pound is suffering

3r the 5 year German bund remains in negative territory with the 10 year close to negativity at +.29/no doubt the ECB will have trouble meeting its quota of purchases and thus European QE will be a total failure.

3s This week the ECB increased the ELA to Greece  by another large 1.4 billion euros. The new maximum is 76.9 billion euros.  The ELA is used to replace depositors fleeing the Greek banking system.  The bank runs are increasing exponentially. The ECB is contemplating cutting off the ELA which would be a death sentence to Greece and they are as well considering a 50% haircut to all Greek sovereign collateral which will totally wipe out the entire Gr. banking and financial sector.

 

3t Greece informally asked the IMF to delay its payment for May 1 and they refused.

3 u. With the big meeting in Riga a failure on Friday,sheer anger developed between the Finance Ministers and the Greek contingent. There was no substance in the meetings to suggest that Greece was going to reform. Greece will not reform its public pensions.

If the ECB cuts off Greece’s ELA they would have very little money left to function.

4.  USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.04% early this morning. Thirty year rate well below 3% at 2.76%/yield curve flatten/foreshadowing recession.

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

(courtesy zero hedge/Jim Reid Deutsche bank)

 

Equity Futures Spooked By Second Day Of Bund Dumping, EUR Surges; Nikkei Slides

The biggest overnight story was neither out of China, where despite the ridiculous surge in new account openings and margin debt the SHCOMP dipped 08%, or out of Japan, where the Nikkei dropped 2.7%, the biggest drop in months, after the BOJ disappointed some by not monetizing more than 100% of net issuance and keeping QE unchanged, but Europe where for the second day in a row there was a furious selloff of Bunds at the open of trading, which briefly sent the yield on the 10Y to 0.38% (it was 0.6% two weeks ago), in turn sending the EURUSD soaring by almost 200 pips to a two month high of 1.1250, and weighing on US equity futures, before retracing some of the losses.

As we reported earlier, the technicals certainly do not favor Bund flows now, and it is likeley that the Bund squeeze is far from over.

Negative news about the Apple watch aka the “tattoo snafu”will likely weigh on the DJIA today, with AAPL stock already down -1% in premarket trading.

A deeper look at the market shows Asian equities falling amid a negative Wall Street close, after the FOMC failed to offer any changes to its policy. Nikkei (-2.7%) led the slump after resuming trade following yesterday’s market closure, with weakness prompted by the BoJ refraining from carrying out further easing. Shanghai Comp (-0.8%) and Hang Seng (-0.9%) also fell with declines led by financials after ICBC (-2.1%) (market cap of USD 310bln) earnings. The ASX 200 (-0.83%) was also weighed on by financials amid worries around higher capital requirements, although support was found at 5,750, which is a triple bottom.

Bunds have continued yesterday’s trend lower sending German 10y yields above 0.3% which traded lower by 268 ticks since yesterday’s open from session lows. Analyst’s state that although the reasoning behind the recent move lower remains unclear, a correction was due with investors too fixated on the prospect of negative yields alongside improving European credit conditions and inflation expectations.

European equities (-0.3%) trade mixed at the height of European earnings season as a slew of positive earnings from major large caps including BASF, Bayer, Shell lift core indices are unable to lift stocks firmly into the green whereby the DAX is the notable underperformer in Europe. However, notable outperformers come in the form of Vallourec (-14.7%) who opened lower by 17% following poor earnings and Nokia (-7.4%) after they reported weak sales from their networking unit which also weighed on Alcatel-Lucent (-6.4%).

The USD-index (-0.5%) has extended its losses following last night’s FOMC meeting despite the Fed failing to rule out a June hike, although analysts discounting the possibility of such a move. The Fed also highlighted that weak US data in Q1 was weighed upon by transitory factors.

Major pairs have been buoyed with EUR/USD higher by almost a point after being bolstered by German Unemployment Change (000’s) (Apr) M/M -8k vs. Exp. -15K and stronger European yields.

Elsewhere, the BoJ refrained from further easing following their rate decision overnight which led to USD/JPY falling below 119.00, while the BoJ’s Semi Annual report showed that the central bank cut their 2015 inflation and GDP forecasts to 0.8% from 1% and cut 2% from 2.1% which caused USD/JPY to give back some all of its losses to sit just below 119.00. Furthermore, the BoJ also pushed back their forecast for inflation to reach their mandated 2% target in H1 2016.

The RBNZ kept rates on hold at 3.50% however, they stated that would be appropriate to lower OCR if demand weakens and if there is lower inflation pressure. The central bank also commented on the strength of NZD and added that it trades at an unjustifiably high level.

Yesterday’s DoE Crude Oil Inventories (Apr 24) W/W 1910K vs. Exp. 3300K as Cushing Crude oil inventories fell for the first time since November has buoyed WTI and Brent crude futures despite both products failing to consolidate the move above USD 59.00 and USD 66.00 respectively. Precious metals are also seen higher with spot gold sitting above USD 1,200 after seeing resistance at the aforementioned level. Overnight iron ore futures fell to 4% at its lows as supply continues to swell, although the metal has pared some of the move.

In Summary: European shares fall with the tech and chemicals sectors underperforming and oil & gas, telco outperforming. Euro-Area consumer prices end four-month streak of declines, German unemployment fell less than expected. The Swiss and Dutch markets are the worst-performing larger bourses, the Swedish the best. The euro is stronger against the dollar. Japanese 10yr bond yields rise; German yields increase. Commodities gain, with natural gas, gold underperforming and nickel outperforming. U.S. Chicago purchasing manager, jobless claims, continuing claims, Bloomberg consumer comfort, ISM Milwaukee, employment cost index, personal income, personal spending due later.

Market Wrap

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 2091.7
  • Stoxx 600 down 0.4% to 395.8
  • US 10Yr yield up 1bps to 2.05%
  • German 10Yr yield up 4bps to 0.33%
  • MSCI Asia Pacific down 1.7% to 153.8
  • Gold spot little changed at $1204.5/oz
  • 6 out of 19 Stoxx 600 sectors rise; telco, autos outperform, basic resources, oil & gas underperform
  • Asian stocks fall with the Nikkei outperforming and the ASX underperforming.
  • MSCI Asia Pacific down 1.7% to 153.8; Nikkei 225 down 2.7%, Hang Seng down 0.9%, Kospi down 0.7%, Shanghai Composite down 0.8%, ASX down 0.8%, Sensex down 0.6%
  • Euro up 0.6% to $1.1195
  • Dollar Index down 0.46% to 94.77
  • Italian 10Yr yield up 2bps to 1.53%
  • Spanish 10Yr yield up 4bps to 1.5%
  • French 10Yr yield up 5bps to 0.61%
  • S&P GSCI Index up 0.4% to 442.8
  • Brent Futures up 0.3% to $66/bbl, WTI Futures up 0.9% to $59.1/bbl
  • LME 3m Copper up 0.9% to $6202.5/MT
  • LME 3m Nickel up 2.9% to $13805/MT
  • Wheat futures up 0.9% to 487.8 USd/bu

Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk and Bloomberg

  • Bund sell-off rattles the market with stronger German yields benefitting the EUR.
  • The USD-index (-0.5%) has extended its losses following last night’s FOMC meeting despite the Fed failing to rule out June hike but most analysts deem this unlikely
  • Looking ahead sees the release of US Initial Jobless Claims, Chicago Purchasing Manager, ISM Milwaukee, EIA NatGas storage change, Fed’s Tarullo and large cap earnings from Exxon, Gilead and Visa
  • Treasuries lower led by short end, yields higher by ~1bp as bunds lead EGBs lower in positioning-driven selloff; FOMC assessment of U.S. economy and labor market more dovish than many expected, based on published research.
  • Euro-zone consumer prices were unchanged in April, ending a four month string of declines
  • Greece and its euro-area partners are stepping up talks in a bid to break an impasse over bailout aid as early as next week, even as the country’s government sent conflicting signals over its willingness to agree on long-stalled reforms
  • Greece will leave the euro, according to the majority of investors, analysts, and traders in a Bloomberg survey
  • 58.1% of Greeks say govt shouldn’t hold referendum on any potential deal with creditors, compared with 37.3% who said it should, according to Marc poll for Alpha TV
  • German joblessness fell 8k to 2.79m in April while the  unemployment rate remained at 6.4%, the lowest level since reunification
  • China will step up targeted control measures and fine-tune policies to combat downward pressure on economy, Xinhua News Agency reports, citing a statement released after Communist Party Politburo meeting
  • The Bank of Japan refrained from boosting monetary stimulus even as it pushed back its forecast for reaching a 2% inflation target, ascribing the delay to the tumble in oil prices
  • Sovereign bond yields higher.  Asian stocks fall, European stocks mostly lower, U.S. equity-index futures drop. Crude oil and copper higher, gold little changed

 

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight summary

 

It was a bit of a nightmare to be long bonds yesterday as we saw a major sell-off despite a weak US Q1 GDP print and a fairly predictable FOMC statement. It was a good day for us ‘secular stagnationists’ but I’m not sure it would have helped us much in trading the report as bond market positioning seemingly outweighed all else. Having said that Bunds had already sent global yields higher after a slightly stronger German inflation report (+0.3% YoY, +0.2% expected) and a weak auction. A five year Bund auction yesterday only gathered EUR3.649bn in bids which fell short of the EUR4bn sales target. This was the first time a Bund auction had missed its target since 21 Jan and the third bond sale this year that was technically uncovered according to Bloomberg. 10yr Bunds rose +12bps to 0.285%, with the equivalent in France, Spain, Italy, Portugal and the UK up between 12-15bps on the day. The US 10yr actually out-performed, only finishing the day +3.5bps higher. Very few dared to short bunds 10-14 days ago when intra-day they fell below 0.05bp but now there’s a bit of momentum we’re seeing increasing interest in jumping on the bandwagon. Our view on European rates is incredibly confused at the moment as we believe in many different conflicting things. We believe in secular stagnation but think Europe will see a decent cyclical recovery in 2015 and we believe we’re in a giant bond bubble but think we need it to be sustained by central banks to some degree to keep the debt heavy financial system solvent. Overall it probably points to a bias of a mild back-up in yields over the rest of the year but not an excessive one. We still think spreads will tighten though.

Back to the US GDP number, it came in at +0.2% annualised QoQ, well below already low expectations so hats off to the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model we’ve been tracking for a couple of months now. The headline figure actually belied even weaker underlying factors as it was bolstered by inventory accumulation which added +0.7% to output. As DB Chief US Economist Joe LaVorgna wrote, the weak Q1 GDP was to some extent to be expected but the mix does not bode as well for Q2 with the chance that this buildup in inventories is liquidated. Given this Joe thinks that current quarter growth is likely to run at around 2.5% and not the 4% snapback he’d previously anticipated.

Equities and credit markets on both sides of the Atlantic sold off with the Stoxx 600 down -2.2%, the DAX down -3%, iTraxx Main +1.5bps wider and Xover +9bps in Europe. US markets also struggled as the S&P500 closed the day down -0.37%% and CDX IG and HY widened +1bp and +4bps. The USD also suffered as EURUSD rose almost +2%. Commodities enjoyed a stronger day with the CRB Index and Brent up +1.2% and +1.8%, respectively. Oil’s performance was also supported by latest data which showed that inventory gains were less than expected.

Taking a slightly closer look at what was a fairly uneventful Fed statement, Peter Hooper reckons the importance of the April statement was how the Committee saw recent and prospective economic developments. The message was that growth has slowed and the improving trend in the labour market has passed due “in part” to transitory factors. Conditions are still in place to support further improvement in the job market ahead and inflation is also expected to eventually return to desired levels. Reading between the lines Peter thinks the statement is still consistent with a September liftoff as long as economic conditions develop in line with the Committee’s expectations.

Onto more micro matters we’ll quickly roundup yesterday’s earnings. 43 S&P 500 companies reported yesterday and strong EPS beats continues to be the main theme. 31 out of those 43 firms delivered upside surprises (including Time Warner, Mastercard and Hess Corp) to EPS but only 19 of those managed to do the same for sales revenue. The trend remains quite the opposite in Europe where we saw just over half of the companies beat EPS forecasts but just over two-thirds of them beat sales estimates.

Key Asian equity and government bond markets are trading lower overnight. The BoJ has left monetary policy/QQE unchanged as we go to print. Look out for the press conference after we publish. The Nikkei is down -2.6% while the 10yr JGB yield is also up 4bps to 0.329% with the Nikkei weakening -1% since the announcement. The Hang Seng is -1% lower as we type but still on track to close nearly +14% on the month – its biggest monthly gain since May 2009. There seems to also be some profit taking in China with the Shanghai Composite -0.1% lower overnight. The 10yr UST is about 2bps lower at 2.02% as we go to print.

Taking a look at Greece, it looks like EU officials will resume negations today. A reinforced Greek team is set to meet with its international creditors in Brussels today with some new proposals from the Greeks expected to be discussed. The aim is to reach a preliminary deal by 3 May to allow finance ministers to sign off an accord by the next scheduled meeting on 11 May (Bloomberg news).

Looking to the day ahead we have German March retail sales (expected to rise to +0.5% MoM), their unemployment rate (expected steady at 6.4%), French March PPI (expected +0.5%) and consumer spending (expected to fall to -0.5% MoM). We will also get Spanish April CPI (expected to fall to +0.7% MoM) and Q1 GDP (expected to rise to +0.8% QoQ). Continuing what is a busy day for European data we will have the Eurozone March unemployment rate (expected slightly down at 11.2%) and the April CPI estimate (expected to rise to 0% MoM). Finally we will also get Italian April CPI (expected down at +0.5% MoM). In the US we will see the Q1 Employment Cost Index (expected at +0.6%) as well as March personal income (+0.2%), personal spending (+0.5%) and core PCE (expected to rise to +0.2% MoM) as well as the April Milwaukee ISM (expected to fall to 53) and the Chicago Purchasing Manager number (expected to rose to 50).

Earnings season continues to roll on with heavy-hitters including Airbus, BNP, RBS and Shell reporting in Europe and Coca-Cola, Exxon, AIG and Visa in the US. A busy day to end another exciting month.

 

end

 

Greece scrambles as they actually in fact ran out of euros to dispense to pensioners as we have predicted.

(courtesy zero hedge)

Greece “Scrambles”To Make Full Monthly Pension Payments: “Still Missing Several Hundred Million Euros”

To be sure, Greece has been “running out of money” for quite some time. Given the incessant media coverage surrounding the country’s cash shortage and the fact that Athens somehow seems to scrape together the funds to make payments both to lenders and to public sector employees against impossible odds, it’s tempting to think that as dire as the situation most certainly is, the country might still be able to ride out the storm without suffering a major “accident.” Having said that, some rather alarming events have unfolded over the past week or so, including a government decree mandating the transfer of excess cash reserves from municipalities to the central bank. As it turns out, that didn’t go over well with local officials and as we reported on Tuesday, the government finally hit the brick wall, coming up some €400 million short on payments to pensioners. Here’s what we said then:

According to Bloomberg, the Greek government is €400 million short of the amount needed for payment of pensions and salaries this month, citing a Kathimerini report.

Surprisingly, this takes place even as Greece’s IKA, OGA pension funds have been informed by the government that amount needed for payment of pensions will be deposited today, while the Greece’s OAEE pension fund has said payment of pensions won’t be a problem.

In other words, someone is not telling the truth: either there is enough money or there isn’t. And if the latter case is valid, then either the government or the pensions are now openly lying to the population.

Fast forward to Thursday and we learn that sure enough, the government ran out of money earlier this week. Here’s FT:

The Greek government was struggling on Thursday to complete payments to more than 2m pensioners after claiming that a “technical hitch” delayed an earlier disbursement.

 

Elderly Athenians waited at branches of the National Bank of Greece, the state-controlled lender handling the bulk of pension payments, which are staggered over several days.

On Tuesday, the main state social security fund, IKA, delayed pension payments by almost eight hours. The heavily lossmaking fund relies on a monthly subsidy from the budget to be able to cover its obligations.

“I went to the ATM in the morning before going to the supermarket but the money wasn’t there . . . I went back at eight in the evening feeling quite anxious but it had arrived,” said Socrates Kambitoglou, a retired civil engineer.

Dimitris Stratoulis, deputy minister for social security, said a technical problem with the interbank payment system caused the delay. Payments were made normally on Wednesday, a senior Greek banker said.

But an official with knowledge of the government’s cash position denied that a technical hitch had occurred. He said the payments were held up because the state pension funds “were still missing several hundred million euros on Tuesday morning”.

Another official said inflows of €500m on Wednesday had eased the situation and €300m was due to be paid on Thursday. “We’re probably going to make it this month,” he said.

Yes, “probably,” considering Thursday is the last day of the month, but what about next month, when some €1 billion in total comes due to the IMF? No one really knows. What we do know is that the banking sector has lost €27 billion in deposits since December, local governments are being shaken down for every last euro, depositors holding cash abroad are being beggedto bring their cash back to Greece, and now, pensioners are walking away from ATMs empty handed while Athens furiously scrambles to find cash to pay them.

end

Youth unemployment continues to remain in the stratosphere:

(courtesy zero hedge)

European Unemployment By Country: Youth Unemployment In Greece, Spain Remains Over 50%

 

Eurostat reported moments ago that European CPI came in flat in March, as expected, and up a fraction from a modest -0.1% print last month, driven entirely by an ongoing 5.8% drop in energy prices, while food, services and goods all posted modest increases in the past month.

To some this was another indication that the deflation in the Eurozone is ending. Of course, if that is the case, it is risk negative and EUR positive because in addition to yesterday’s first positive loan creation print in 3 years, the ECB’s QE may not even need to last until September of 2016 before European inflation comes back with a bang.

On the other hand, looking at the other Eurostat release today, showing that European unemployment remained flat at 11.3%, despite expectations of a modest decline to 11.2%, with Italy’s 13% print leading the rise in unemployment up from 12.7%, and far worse than the 12.6% expected, and suddenly the end to Draghi’s QE does not look that imminent. This follows the March unemployment print which not only missed consensus but was worse than the highest estimate.

European unemployment broken down by country:

But the scariest data, once again, is revealed in the table of European youth unemployment. Here we see that both Spain and Greece now share the same youth unemployment figure of 50.1%, while Italy has reversed its recent improving trend, and is now at 43.1% and rising.

For anyone asking why Europe’s politicians are terrified at the anti “austerity” wave that is just over the horizon, the table above should have all the answers.

 

end

Russia cuts its key lending rate by 150 basis points citing risk to the entire global economy.
(courtesy zero hedge)

Russia Central Bank Cuts Key Rate By 150 bps To 12.50% Citing Risk Of “Considerable Economy Cooling”

The days when Russia scrambled to prevent the plunge in its currency in December of 2014, pushing its interest rate to an eye watering 17%, are now a distant memory: moments ago, the CBR announced that following the most recent cut from 15% to 14% on March 13, it once again cut rates by a greater than consensus 150 bps, to 12.50%. The majority of analysts, or 25 of 40, had expected a cut to only 13.00%.

The reason for the bigger than expected cut: “lower inflation risks and persistent risks of considerable economy cooling. Amid ruble appreciation and significant contraction in consumer demand in February-April 2015, monthly consumer price growth declines and annual inflation tends to stabilise.”

The immediate reaction has seen the USDRUB retrace some of its losses suffered earlier today.

Full statement:

On 30 April 2015, the Bank of Russia Board of Directors decided to reduce the key rate from 14.00 to 12.50 percent per annum, taking account of lower inflation risks and persistent risks of considerable economy cooling. Amid ruble appreciation and significant contraction in consumer demand in February-April 2015, monthly consumer price growth declines and annual inflation tends to stabilise. According to the Bank of Russia forecast, consumer price growth will slow down faster than expected. Annual inflation will fall to less than 8% in a year (April 2016 on April 2015) and to the target of 4% in 2017. As inflation risks abate further, the Bank of Russia will be ready to continue cutting the key rate.

According to Bank of Russia estimates, as of 27 April, annual consumer price growth rate stood at 16.5%. High rates of annual inflation are conditioned primarily by short-term factors: ruble depreciation in late 2014 — January 2015 and external trade restrictions. Meanwhile, monthly consumer price growth is estimated to have declined on the average to 1.0% in March-April from 3.1% in January-February, and annual inflation tends to stabilise. Lower consumer demand amid contracting real income and ruble appreciation in the recent months curbed prices. Inflation expectations of the population decreased against this backdrop.

Current monetary conditions also facilitate the slowdown in consumer price growth. Money supply (M2) growth rate remains low. Lending and deposit rates are adjusted downwards under the influence of previous Bank of Russia decisions to reduce the key rate. However, they remain high, on the one hand, contributing to attractiveness of ruble savings, and, on the other hand, alongside with tighter borrower and collateral requirements, resulting in lower annual lending growth.

The dynamics of the major macroeconomic indicators show a considerable GDP contraction in 2015 Q1. Though structural factors continue hampering the economic growth, output contraction is currently mostly of cyclical nature. It is attested, among other things, by the on-going decline in production capacity and labour force utilisation, and a certain rise in the unemployment rate. According to Bank of Russia estimates, the labour market adjusts to the new conditions mostly through wage decrease and part-time employment. These factors, alongside with a decrease in retail lending, will result in further decline in consumer activity. Fixed capital investments will continue to contract due to persistently high economic uncertainty, deterioration of companies’ financial performance, tighter lending conditions, limited ability to replace foreign sources of funding with domestic ones given shallow Russian financial market, as well as high prices for imported investment goods. Sluggish domestic demand will contain imports. Net exports will be the only factor to make a positive contribution to the output growth. These factors will lead to a fall in GDP in 2015. Later on, as import substitution expands, sources of funding gradually diversify, lending conditions ease, and oil prices rise to some extent, the quarter-on-quarter GDP growth is expected to recover.

Thus, the current economic conditions will contribute to inflation decline. The ruble appreciation will have additional restraining influence on consumer prices. Inflation, both monthly and annual, is expected to gradually decline. A slowdown in consumer price growth will make room for inflation expectations decrease. According to the Bank of Russia forecast, annual inflation will slow down to less than 8% in a year and to the target of 4% in 2017.

Inflation risks emanate primarily from persistently high inflation expectations, aggravation of external economic situation, revision of planned increases in administered prices and tariffs, fiscal policy easing, and accelerated growth in nominal wages, including those in the public sector. As inflation risks abate further, the Bank of Russia will be ready to continue cutting the key rate.

The next meeting of the Bank of Russia Board of Directors on the key rate is scheduled for 15 June 2015. The press release on the Bank of Russia Board of Directors’ decision is to be published at 13:30, Moscow time.

end
My goodness!! the soft peg has certainly caused considerable damage to Switzerland;
(courtesy zero hedge)

The Swiss National Bank Is Long $100 Billion In Stocks, Reports Record Loss

When the Swiss National Bank revealed its long awaitedQ1 financials earlier today, everyone was eagerly looking at the number showing just how massive the quarterly P&L loss would be to the central bank following its shocking decision from January 15 to remove its EURCHF 1.20 floor, which sent the CHF soaring and by implication caused huge losses to the mostly EUR-denominated SNB assets.

The loss was indeed, massive, coming in at CHF 29.3 billion, or $32 billion.

This was the biggest quarterly loss for the Swiss central bank to date, dwarfing that of CHF18.5 billion incurred in the second quarter of 2013, when the price of gold plummeted, and certainly one of the biggest central bank losses in history, if of course, the others tracked their P&L the way the SNB does.

This is how the SNB described its loss:

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) reports a loss of CHF 30.0 billion for the first quarter of 2015.

The loss on foreign currency positions amounted to CHF 29.3 billion. A valuation loss of CHF 1.0 billion was recorded on the gold holdings.

The SNB’s financial result depends largely on developments in the gold, foreign exchange and capital markets. Strong fluctuations are therefore to be expected, and only provisional conclusions are possible as regards the annual result.

Loss on foreign currency positions

The negative result on foreign currency positions amounted to CHF 29.3 billion in total.

On 15 January 2015, the SNB decided to discontinue the minimum exchange rate of CHF 1.20 per euro with immediate effect. This led to an appreciation of the Swiss franc and, as a result, to exchange rate-related losses on all investment currencies. For the first quarter of 2015, these amounted to a total of CHF 41.1 billion.

Interest income provided a positive contribution, at CHF 1.6 billion, as did dividend income, at CHF 0.3 billion. The generally lower interest rate level resulted in price gains of CHF 3.7 billion on interest-bearing paper and instruments. Equity securities and instruments benefited from the favourable stock market environment and contributed CHF 6.2 billion to the net result.

The subsequent commentary was amusing. Reuters reports that “had the SNB maintained the cap on the franc in the face of a quantitative easing programme by the European Central Bank, the expansion of the SNB’s balance sheet would have been even greater and eventual losses more devastating, said Peter Rosenstreich, head of market strategy at Swissquote Bank.”

Which, of course, sums up what anyone who is buying stocks or bonds can expect because every bubble, even those of central bank balance sheets, or rather especially those, eventually bursts.

…the loss could have political repercussions for the central bank, and could rule out an annual payment to its shareholders, including the federal government and cantons.

“This massive loss will have a lasting sting on the psyche at the SNB and politically within the cantons, which might hamper policy strategy moving forward,” Rosenstreich said.

Yes, traumatic and all that.

But what caught our attention was not the SNB Income Statement but its Balance Sheet. Here, we find that while the total assets of the SNB have risen to CHF581 billion as of March 31, the bulk of this was due to “foreign currency investments”, which amounted to CHF532 billion.

That’s impressive, but that’s not the punchline.

What is, is the following table, according to which 18%, or CHF95 ($102 billion) of the assets held on the SNB’s balance sheet are, drumroll, foreign stocks!

In other words, the SNB holds 15% of Switzerland’s GDP in equities!

We’ll give the SNB credit: while every other central bank is loaded to its gills in stocks, none dare admit it.

That said, with an equity AUM greater than 99.9% of all global hedge funds, isn’t it time for the SNB to at least file a 13-F?

And not just the SNB – with the NY Fed having participated directly and indirectly (via Citadel) in the market for the past decade if not longer, is it too much to ask of the world’s central banks to reveal the amount and identity of stock (and E-mini) holdings? After all, both the Fed, the SNB and all their peers are desperate to “reflate” the world in the only way they can – though stock market levitation. So if anything, admitting to the world not only that they buy stocks outright, but show which stocks they buy, resulting in massive future lagged frontrunning of such central bank 13-F purchases.

Source: SNB

end

 

this does not look too good!! And Obama wants to have a nuclear deal with these guys?
(courtesy zero hedge)

Inching Toward Conflict: US Navy To Escort Cargo Ships In Persian Gulf; Iran Refuses To Back Down

Stocks took a nasty fall on Tuesday when Al Arabiya erroneously reported that Iran had captured a cargo ship with a crew of Americans on board. It also sent oil surging. Things promptly normalized when it was revealed that the “confiscated” ship was merely one with a Marshall Island flag, at which point its fate was quickly forgotten (it may still be held by Iran, or not). But one thing is certain: both Iran and the US are itching for a provocation, whether a direct one or the far more traditional false flag type.

Earlier today, Iran’s Navy Commander Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari said that presence of the 34th fleet of the Iranian Navy in the Gulf of Aden is in accordance with international law to protect Iranian trade vessels against pirates.

Quoted by Iran’s IRNA news agency, Sayyari, who was speaking to reporters on the sidelines of a ceremony to mark the National Teacher’s Day, said that the Iranian Navy has maintained a continuous presence in the Gulf of Aden, Bab el-Mandeb Strait and western India since 2008 Sayyari

He added that claims that Iranian warships have been warned and that they have left this region are not correct.

The Navy commander reiterated that the Iranian fleet does not enter territorial waters of other countries and is only present in international waters to ensure security for Iranian trade vessels.

Sayyari said that the 34th fleet of the Iranian Navy has also helped other countries in protecting their ships against pirates.

A laughable excuse of course, but no less laughable than the one provided by the US navy offered ten days agowhen we learned that a US Navi aircraft carrier and a warship are being dispatched to intercept Iranian weapons shipment to Yemeni rebels.

And, as expected, moments ago there was yet another step up in the Persian Gulf naval escalation when CNN reported that the U.S. Navy will escort U.S.-flagged cargo ships through Strait of Hormuz in wake of Iran seizure this week, a US official says. Specifically, the Navy will henceforth accompany ships on concern that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard may seize them, CNN’s Jim Sciutto says in Twitter post, citing CNN’s Barbara Starr.

As a reminder the Straits of Hormuz is one of the busiest shipping lanes in the world, one which is transited by 35% of all seaborne traded oil.

This takes place just a day after the Pentagon said that the U.S. would “be able to respond” if necessary to help a Marshall Islands-flagged ship that was diverted, and boarded, a day earlier by Iran — though it remains unclear how far the U.S. Navy might be willing to go if the tense situation escalates.

Pentagon spokesman Col. Steve Warren said a U.S. guided-missile destroyer, the USS Farragut, is in the area and “keeping an eye on things,” and in close enough proximity to the ship that they “will be able to respond if a response is required.”

When pressed on what kind of incident aboard the ship would elicit a U.S. Navy response, he was vague, saying: “These [U.S. military] assets give commanders options.” He said he didn’t know “what the possibilities are,” and the U.S. government is “in discussions with the Marshall Islands on the way ahead.”

It is unclear what happens if either the accompanied cargo ship, or the US Navy warship leaves international waters, and enters Iran territory, which as the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is virtually assured: a strait which as the US Naval update map below shows has become as busy for US traffic as the 405 Freeway during rush hour.

end

Your more important currency crosses early Thursday morning:

 

Euro/USA 1.1195 up .0084

USA/JAPAN YEN 118.94 down .0426

GBP/USA 1.5430 up .0005

USA/CAN 1.2040 up  .0021

This morning in Europe, the Euro rose quite a bit by 84 basis points, trading now well above the 1.11  level at 1.1195; Europe is still reacting to deflation, announcements of massive stimulation, a proxy middle east war, crumbling bourses and the ramifications of a default at the Austrian Hypo bank, a possible default of Greece and the Ukraine.

In Japan Abe went all in with Abenomics with another round of QE purchasing 80 trillion yen from 70 trillion on Oct 31. The yen continues to trade in yoyo fashion as this morning it settled up again in Japan by 5 basis points and trading well below the 120 level to 118.94 yen to the dollar.

The pound was well up this morning as it now trades just above the 1.54 level at 1.5430  ( still very worried about the health of Barclay’s Bank and the FX/precious metals criminal investigation/Dec 12 a new separate criminal investigation on gold, silver and oil manipulation).

The Canadian dollar is down by 21 basis points at 1.2040 to the dollar

We are seeing that the 3 major global carry trades are being unwound.  The BIGGY is the first one;

1. the total dollar global short is 9 trillion USA and as such we are now witnessing a sea of red blood on the streets as derivatives blow up with the massive rise in the rise in the dollar against all paper currencies

2, the Nikkei average vs gold carry trade (still ongoing)

3. Short Swiss franc/long assets (European housing/Nikkei etc.  This has partly blown up (see  Hypo bank failure). Swiss franc is now 1.0280 to the Euro, trading well above the floor 1.05.  This will continue to create havoc with the Hypo bank failure.

These massive carry trades are terribly offside as they are being unwound. It is causing global deflation ( we are at debt saturation already) as the world reacts to lack of demand and a scarcity of debt collateral.  Bourses around the globe are reacting in kind to these events as well as the potential for a GREXIT>

The NIKKEI: this morning :down a whopping 538.94 or 2.69%

Trading from Europe and Asia:
1. Europe stocks mixed

2/ Asian bourses all deeply in the red … Chinese bourses: Hang Sang in the red (massive bubble forming) ,Shanghai in the red  (massive bubble ready to burst),  Australia  in the red: /Nikkei (Japan) in the red/India’s Sensex in the red/

Gold very early morning trading: $1202.80 (options expiry ends this afternoon in London)

silver:$16.55

 

Early Thursday morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.04% !!!  up 3  in basis points from Wednesday night/

 

USA dollar index early Thursday morning: 94.78 down 43 cents from Wednesday’s close. (Resistance will be at a DXY of 100)

 

This ends the early morning numbers, Thursday morning

 

And now for your closing numbers for Thursday:

 

Closing Portuguese 10 year bond yield:2.11% down 1 in basis points from Wednesday

 

Closing Japanese 10 year bond yield: .34% !!! up 4 in basis points from Wednesday

 

Your closing Spanish 10 year government bond,  Thursday, par in basis points in yield from Wednesday night.

 

Spanish 10 year bond yield: 1.47% !!!!!!

 

Your Thursday closing Italian 10 year bond yield: 1.50% down 1  in basis points from Wednesday:

trading 3 basis points above Spain.

***QE not working as the ECB is having difficulty finding the number of bonds to purchase.

 

 

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TODAY

 

 

Closing currency crosses for Thursday night/USA dollar index/USA 10 yr bond: 4 pm

 

Euro/USA: 1.1122 up .0011  ( Euro up 11 basis points)

USA/Japan: 119.57 up .571  ( yen down 57 basis points)

Great Britain/USA: 1.5339 down .0087   (Pound down 87 basis points)

USA/Canada: 1.2069 up .0048 (Can dollar down 48 basis points)

 

The euro rose  today.   It settled up 11 basis points against the dollar to 1.1122 as the dollar continues to falter on all fronts.Today intervention slowed the pace of the dollar retreat. The yen was down 59 basis points  and closing just above the 119 cross at 119.57. The British pound lost considerable ground today, 87 basis points, closing at 1.5339. The Canadian dollar lost a little  ground to the USA dollar, down 48 basis points closing at 1.2069.

As explained above, the short dollar carry trade is being unwound, the yen carry trade , the Nikkei/gold carry trade, and finally the long dollar/short Swiss franc carry trade are all being unwound and these reversals are  causing massive derivative losses. And as such these massive derivative losses is the powder keg that will destroy the entire financial system. The losses on the oil front and huge losses on the USA dollar will no doubt produce many dead bodies.

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield: 2.04% par in basis points from Wednesday

 

 

Your closing USA dollar index:

94.72  down 48 cents on the day. (this is really good news)

 

European and Dow Jones stock index closes:

 

 

England FTSE up 14.35 or 0.21%

Paris CAC up 7.10 or 0.14%

German Dax up 21.66 or 0.19%

Spain’s Ibex up 6.10 or 0.05%

Italian FTSE-MIB up 49.89 or 0.22%

 

The Dow: down 195.01 or 1.08%

Nasdaq; down 82.22 or 1.64%

 

OIL: WTI 59.73 !!!!!!!

Brent: 66.75!!!!

 

Closing USA/Russian rouble cross: 51.49 down 4/5 rouble per dollar on the day.

 

 

end

 

 

And now your important USA stories:

 

NYSE trading for today.

Dollar-nado Sparks Market Turmoil In April

If you were long AAPL, Bonds, Small Caps, Trannies, or Silver in April (or The Dow since 2014)…. this is for you…

Great news today on wage costs sparked the initial wave of liquidity-addicted selling which then accelerated this afternoon as headlines from Iran hit…

By the close, Small Caps were worst on the day from The FOMC statement…

And on the week… Small Caps are ugly, Dow and S&P down but holding on for now…

And for April…

Biotechs buggered… (closed below its 100DMA to Feb lows) – down 14.3% from highs 5 daya ago!

Apple anxiety… (closed below its 50DMA) dow over 8% from highs..

Twitter Twatted… -24% from pre-earnings early release…

The dollar dropped, led by more EUR strength (back over 1.1250 today!)…

Treasuries blew higher in yield early on as it seemed the “rate hike meme” trade was back and everything was sold. But once stock selling accelerated, bonds rallied and ended close to unchanged…

All commodities are up on the week still but gold and silver were clubbed like baby seals around the data release this morning…

*  *  *

For the month of April:

  • The dollar ended a 9 month streak with a 3.5% drop in April (most since April 2011)
  • The Euro is up 4.3% in April (most sicne April 2011) ending that 9-month streak
  • Biotechs ended a 6 month streak with a 7.3% plunge in April (most since April 2014 – Yellen warning)
  • WTI Crude rose 24.8% in April (the most since May 2009)

Notable selling in Treasuries and curve steepening with the long-end around 23bps higher in April…

The dollar had its worst month in 4 years – led by EUR strength following Draghi’s dare…

And despite the dollar weakness, gold ended flat, silver down but copper jumped on China QE and oil just went up because everything’s normal again…

Finally for 2015, The Dow dropped back into the red and Trannies hit new lows for the year…

Everything has recoupled as Oil soars…

Charts: Bloomberg

Bonus Chart: Yellen is Stallone; Obama is the guy in the chopper; Everyone on CNBC is the lady hanging from the rope…

end
Savings rate now the lowest this year as spending misses expectations:
(courtesy zero hedge)

No Growth In Personal Income Pushes Savings Rate To Lowest In 2015; Spending Misses Expectations

The myth of the resurgent US consumer, who was somehow supposed to benefit massively from the “unambiguously good” plunge in oil and gas prices, has been gutted and eviscerated, with the latest confirmation coming from the Personal Income and Spending data, in which we find that not only did personal income not grow in March, with wage growth the lowest in 2015 (with manufacturing workers’ incomes coming flat and Trade and Transportation wages actually down), but because spending rose by a weaker than expected 0.4% in March, the 4th miss in the past 5 months, US personal savings have resumed declining and all those “gas savings” are finally being spent: just not where they should be spent, and not in the amounts hoped.

Personal income has now missed 5 of the past 7 months.

Personal income and spending:

 

Personal savings dropped from 5.7% to 5.3% – the lowest of 2015:

 

Wages and Salaries: hardly the stuff recoveries are made of:

 

And finally, yes, spending finally rebounded. The problem is that it wasn’t enough and Q1 GDP will likely be cut once more.

 end
Initial claims plummet??? and rigs in Texas disappear?
(courtesy BLS)

The Last Time Initial Jobless Claims Were This Low Was The Peak Of The Dot-Com Bubble

Initial jobless claims have been worse than expected for the last 2 weeks but remained below the magical 300k level, so it was only appropriate that this week all the great economic news of late – record plunge in US macro disappointments and a dismal 0.2% GDP print – would be met with the lowest claims print in 15 years. At 262k (against a 290k expectation), initial claims has only been lower once – the week of April 14th 2000 – which just happened to mark the top of the Dot-Com bubble. While this is great news, we do note that a rolling average of Texas Jobless claims shows the improving trend has stalled.

 

Outlier or new trend?

 

 

But a rolling average of Texas Jobless claims shows the improving trend has stalled…

 

Perhaps most worrying is this… the last time we were this low – only once in history, marked the week of the top of the DotCom bubble in 2000….

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 end
Some of the big companies starting to crash:
(courtesy zero hedge)

LInkedIn Crashes 25% After Missing Revenues, Cutting Outlook

LNKD has collapsed 27% on the back of missed revenues and lowered outlooks for Q2 and 2015 drastically. What is most dramatic – just as was seen with YELP and TWTR isthe velocity of repricing which indicates just how far expectations for growth in the tech sector are from reality… and strongly suggests all is not well as El-Erian’s “wedge” between markets and fundamentals snaps shut…

Just totally ugly:

  • *LINKEDIN SEES 2Q REV. $670M-$675M, EST. $718.3M
  • *LINKEDIN SEES 2Q ADJ. EBITDA ABOUT $120M, EST. $197.1M
  • *LINKEDIN SEES 2Q ADJ. EPS ABOUT 28C, EST. 74C
  • *LINKEDIN SEES 2015 ADJ. EBITDA ABOUT $630M, EST. $815.9M REV.
  • *LINKEDIN SEES 2015 ADJ. EPS ABOUT $1.90, EST. $3.03

The result…

Which means LNKD has done nothing for over 2 years…

and th elatest exuberance is all as margin debt soars.

Charts: Bloomberg

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3 comments

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