Gold: $1080.90 down $3.90 (comex closing time)
Silver $14.22 down 4 cents
In the access market 5:15 pm
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
At the gold comex today, we had a very poor delivery day, registering 0 notice for nil ounces. Silver saw 0 notices for nil oz.
Several months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today, the total inventory rests at 209.72 tonnes for a loss of 93 tonnes over that period.
In silver, the open interest surprisingly rose by a considerable 3,553 contracts despite silver being down by 6 cents in yesterday’s trading. The total silver OI now rests at 165,988 contracts In ounces, the OI is still represented by .829 billion oz or 119% of annual global silver production (ex Russia ex China).
In silver we had 0 notices served upon for nil oz.
In gold, the total comex gold OI fell by a huge 8442 contracts to 427,984 contracts as gold was down by $0.30 yesterday. It seems the modus operandi of the bandits is to liquefy gold/silver OI as be approach first day notice on Monday, November 30. They succeeded in gold but not silver. We had 0 notices filed for nil today.
We had a huge withdrawal in gold inventory at the GLD to the tune of 1.49 tonnes / thus the inventory rests tonight at 661.94 tonnes. The appetite for gold coming from China is depleting not only gold from the LBMA and GLD but also the comex is bleeding gold. Our 670 tonnes of rock bottom inventory in GLD gold has been broken. It looks to me that China has taken the last amounts of physical gold from the GLD. I guess the only place left for China to receive physical gold, after they deplete the GLD will be the FRBNY and the comex. In silver, we had a huge addition in silver inventory to the tune of 1.43 milllion oz / Inventory rests at 315.111 million oz.
We have a few important stories to bring to your attention today…
1. Today, we had the open interest in silver rise by a considerable 3,553 contracts up to 165,988 despite the fact that silver was down by 6 cents with respect to yesterday’s trading. The total OI for gold fell by a considerable 8442 contracts to 427,984 contracts with gold down only 30 cents yesterday.
The bankers are succeeding in lowering the OI as the upcoming big December delivery month approaches. They did not have any luck in silver. First day notice is Monday, Nov 30.
2.Gold trading overnight, Goldcore
ii) China reports today on very weak lending as their debt levels and non performing loans are just too high for the Chinese to take on more debt. This should signal for QE for China:
i) A 24 hour national strike was called for today. Massive street protests brought the Greek economy to a fresh halt.
iii) The situation inside Catalonia is getting quite interesting. The government is threatening to arrest Mas and also Catalonia’s parliament refuse to elect Mas.
ii Here is one media that does not believe its nation’s report on “a stellar jobs report”(courtesy zero hedge)
(courtesy the Saker)
iii) Crude breaks into the 41 dollar column on again huge inventory gains especially in Cushing OK.
9 USA stories/Trading of equities:
i) James Bullard: we may stay at zero interest rates for quite some time
(James Bullard/zero hedge)
ii) USA comfort data just released:
two significant findings:
a) Blacks are further from comfort
b) the 25 -34 age group in the uSA also are further from comfort
remember that the consumer is 70% of GDP
iii) Janet Yellen’s favourite report the JOLTS report shows job openings rising off but hirings leveling off.
Why? find out in today’s important commentary
10. Physical stories
i) Attacks on gold are becoming for intense every day. Something is smoking behind the scenes
ii) a) The big news of the day: the generally sanguine World Gold Council announces huge gold coin sales and it is at its highest levels since 2008:
very important for you to read..
(courtesy World Gold Council/zero hedge)
ii b) Reuters Jan Harvey reports on the same data from the WGC
iii) N.Y Sun reports on the debate that Cruz wants to do two important things;
i) audit the Fed
ii) bring back the gold standard
a very welcome change to the debate
(New York Sun/GATA
iv) Sentiment on gold is commented upon by GATA members and others..
v) a) Copper at 6 year lows. Glencore falls below 100 pence putting tremendous pressure on this huge derivative player
b) With copper prices retreating, Glencore and all of its derivative trading may bring down Germany, Deutsche bank and maybe set off a huge financial collapse everywhere
vi Demand for silver far outstripping supply
a must read commentary tonight from Steve St Angelo
vii) Bill Holter’s important piece entitled: “Popular delusions …even if “popular” are still delusional.”
viii) Lawrence Williams of Lawrieongold/Sharp Pixley believes that the smuggled gold may amount up to 25% of their supply:
(Lawrie on gold)
ix) record gold exports from England to China.
Let us head over to the comex:
The total gold comex open interest fell from 436,426 down to 427,984 for a loss of 8,442 contracts as gold was down $0.30 with respect to yesterday’s trading. For the past two years, we have strangely witnessed two interesting developments with respect to the gold open interest: 1) total gold comex collapse in OI as we enter an active delivery month, and 2) a continual drop in the amount of gold standing in an active month. It looks like the latter has stopped. The November contract remained constant at 214 contracts. We had 0 notices filed yesterday, so we neither gained nor lost any gold that will stand for delivery in this non active delivery month of November. The big December contract saw it’s OI fall by a gigantic 23,009 contracts from 226,262 down to 203,253. The estimated volume today (which is just comex sales during regular business hours of 8:20 until 1:30 pm est) was 192,973 which is good. The confirmed volume yesterday (which includes the volume during regular business hours + access market sales the previous day was very good at 243,050 contracts.
November contract month:
INITIAL standings for November
|Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz||nil|
|Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz nil|| 160.76 oz
|Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz||nil|
|Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz||32,150.000 oz
|No of oz served (contracts) today||0 contracts|
|No of oz to be served (notices)||214 contracts
|Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month||7 contracts
|Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month||nil|
|Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month||89,520.1 oz|
Total customer deposits 32,150.00 oz
we had 1 adjustments:
November initial standings/First day notice
|Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory||nil|
|Withdrawals from Customer Inventory||325,802.190 oz
|Deposits to the Dealer Inventory||nil|
|Deposits to the Customer Inventory||10,834.03 oz
|No of oz served (contracts)||0 contracts (nil oz)|
|No of oz to be served (notices)||15 contracts
|Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)||5 contracts (25,000 oz)|
|Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month||nil oz|
|Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month||4,996,842.3 oz|
Today, we had 0 deposit into the dealer account:
total dealer deposit; nil oz
total customer deposits: 10,834.03 oz
total withdrawals from customer account: 325,802.190 oz
And now SLV
nov 12/surprisingly we had a huge addition of 1.43 million oz of silver into the SLV/Inventory rests at 315.111 million oz/(my bet: it is paper silver not real silver entering the vaults)
Nov 11/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/rests tonight at 313.681 million oz/
Nov 10/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/rests tonight at 313.681 million oz/
Nov 9/no change in silver inventory/rests tonight at 313.681
Nov 6/ we had a very tiny withdrawal of 136,000 oz (probably to pay for fees)/Inventory rests tonight at 313.681 oz
Nov 5/strange no change in silver inventory/rests tonight at 313.817 million oz/
Nov 4/2015: no change in silver inventory/rests tonight at 313.817 million oz/
Nov 3.2015; no change in silver inventory/rests tonight at 313.817 million oz/
Nov 2/a withdrawal of 716,000 oz from the SLV/Inventory rests tonight at 313.817 million oz
Oct 30.no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 314.532 million oz
Oct 29/a big withdrawal of 1.001 million oz from the SLV/Inventory rests at 314.532 million oz
Gold Bullion Demand Surges 27% In Q3 – New Chinese “Buying Spree”
Gold Demand Trends Q3 2015 was released by the World Gold Council today. The quarterly publication is the leading industry resource for data and opinion on global gold demand and examines demand trends by sector as well as geography.
The key findings from the report are as follows:
[Graphic source: World Gold Council]
–Overall demand increased by 8% year-on-year to 1,121t as selling of futures contracts and ETFs contributed to a price dip, 6% in July, which buoyed gold demand around the world.
–Total consumer demand – made up of jewellery demand – totalled 928t, up 14%.
–Global investment demand saw a significant rise of 27% to 230t, up from 181t in Q3 2014.
This was led by the US which saw a surge in bar and coin demand – ittripled and was up 207% to 33t from 11t on the same period last year, with massive demand from China, up 70% to 52t and Europe up 35% to 61t.
China’s sharp devaluation of the yuan this summer sparked another gold bar and coin “buying spree” in China according to the World Gold Council, as canny store of wealth buyers sought to shelter themselves from further market volatility and sharp falls in stock markets.
Much of this European demand came from Germany and Austria where demand remains very high due to heightened German concerns about the euro, the European and global economy.
–Global jewellery demand for Q3 2015 was up 6% year-on-year to 632t compared to 594t in Q3 2014. In India, demand was up 15% to 211t and China was up 4% to 188t. The US and the Middle East also saw gains, up 2% to 26t and 8% to 56t respectively.
–Central bank demand reached 175t, the 19th consecutive quarter of net purchases. Russia continued to “lead the pack” in terms of central bank purchases.
– Demand in the technology sector declined 4% to 84t as the sector continued to endure pressure, with the industry choosing to shift towards alternative, cheaper materials in technological applications.
– Total supply was 1,100t in Q3, up 1% year-on-year. Total mine supply (mine production + net producer hedging) remained relatively flat up 3% year-on-year to 848t compared to 814t in the same period last year. Year-on-year quarterly mine production shrank by 1% to 828t in Q3 2015 against 836t in Q3 2014. Recycling
Must-read guide to international bullion storage:
Today’s Gold Prices: USD 1087.60, EUR 1014.03 and GBP 716.21 per ounce.
Yesterday’s Gold Prices: USD 1088.60, EUR 1013.17 and GBP 718.36 per ounce.
COMEX Gold in USD – 1 Year
Gold closed down $2.70 yesterday to finish the day at $1088.70. Silver closed at $14.42, down $0.14. Platinum lost $12 to $898.
Gold prices have slid in 10 of the last 10 COMEX trading sessions (see chart below) falling back to their lowest since early August – half decade lows in dollar terms. Gold looks very oversold on a few measures and is due a bounce.
The upside potential for gold and silver far outweighs the downside risk, in time. On a 5 to 10 year time horizon, the outlook for both precious metals is very positive.
A huge rise in silver investment demand is putting a record squeeze on supply. Also please note that with low prices for base metals and a possible curtailment of mining, this should also cause production to fall as most of silver production is a bi-product of base metal mining
(courtesy Steve St Angelo/SRSRocco Report)
Rising physical silver investment demand will put a record squeeze on North American supply this year. Since 2001, the United States and Canada have experience two opposite trends… surging official silver coins sales on the back of plummeting domestic mine supply.
For example, in 2001 U.S. and Canadian silver production totaled 96.6 million oz (Moz). Of that total, the U.S. produced 55.9 Moz, while Canada supplied 40.7 Moz. That year, Silver Eagle and Maple Leaf sales totaled 9.2 Moz.
Note: the red and blue bars represent Canadian and U.S. silver mine supply, while the white line and boxes show the total sales of U.S. Mint Silver Eagles and the Royal Canadian Mint Silver Maples.
Even though U.S. and Canadian silver production declined significantly to 67.2 Moz by 2007, total Silver Eagle and Maple Leaf sales only increased slightly to 13.4 Moz that year. Which means the U.S. and Canada still enjoyed a net 53.8 Moz domestic silver mine supply surplus after their official coin sales were deducted.
However, during the collapse of the U.S. Housing Market and Investment Banking System in 2008, Silver Eagle and Maple Leaf sales surged to 27.5 Moz while the combined silver production from the U.S. and Canada fell to 57.5 Moz. This pushed the combined domestic mine supply surplus from these two countries down to only 30 Moz once consumption for official silver coins were removed.
This trend counter-trend continued (except for a brief reversal in 2012) until it hit a record net deficit of 19.8 Moz in 2014. This supply deficit is a result of record sales of Silver Eagles and Maples of 73.2 Moz compared to 53.4 Moz combined silver production.
While it’s true the U.S. and Canada imports silver for industrial fabrication, jewelry, silverware and investment demand, this amount has increased significantly due to falling domestic mine supply. Let’s compare the net change since 2001:
If we look at the chart above, we can see that the surplus of U.S. and Canadian silver mine supply minus consumption of their official silver coin sales was 87.4 Moz. However, this is estimated to be a net deficit of 26.2 Moz in 2015 as total Silver Eagle and Maple Leaf sales reach a record 75 Moz versus combined mine supply of 48.8 Moz.
The significance here is that the United States and Canada could use 87.4 Moz of their domestic mine supply (minus official coin consumption) for industrial, jewelry and silver ware fabrication, whereas now they have to import silver just to cover the consumption for their official coin production.
That being said, there continues to be this rumor that the U.S. Mint must use domestic silver mine supply for the production of its Silver Eagles. This used to be true when Congress authorized the U.S. Mint to use up the silver in its Strategic Stockpiles. However, after these inventories were depleted, Congress authorized the U.S. Mint to purchase silver on the open market for the production of its Silver Eagles.
Furthermore, commonsense tells us that at the estimated 37 Moz of U.S. domestic mine supply could not meet the total demand of 45 Moz of Silver Eagles this year.
Regardless, the charts in this article show just how much the surge of Silver Eagle and Maple Leaf sales have totally overwhelmed domestic silver mine supply from these two countries. While silver is still relatively cheap and abundant, there will come a time where silver producing countries such as Mexico and Peru will hold onto more of their mine supply for their own citizens.
Precious metal investors and especially the ignorant public have no clue just how little silver there is to go around when its true STORE OF WEALTH properties are realized.
Lastly, the first chart in this article was an updated chart found in my THE SILVER CHART REPORT. I am currently working on THE SILVER MARKET REPORT that will focus on the silver market going all the way back until the 1950’s.
One more thing. I have had requests from readers to add a DONATE button to the site. Some are not interested in the Paid Reports, but enjoy reading the public articles. So, after many requests, I have finally decided to add this DONATE feature to the site.
If you want to donate to the site, you can find the DONATE button at the bottom of each article or at the top right hand portion of the site. I plan on putting out more articles in the future on how best to protect one’s assets as U.S. and Global Oil production collapses. This is one of the most misunderstood concepts by the majority of analysts in both the precious metal community and Main Stream Media.
The total amount of gold shipped from England to China this year is an astronomical 280 tonnes. (Last yr only 114 tonnes was exported).
What is fascinating here is that England does not produce any gold from any gold mines
As Koos reports, the onslaught of gold leaving the west to the east is in full swing.
According to the most recent data from Eurostat the UK has net exported 37.6 tonnes of gold to China in September, an all-time record. This figure is up 25 % m/m and up 280 % y/y.
The UK started exporting gold directly to China in April 2014 when it shipped 5 tonnes to the mainland while for the first time bypassing Switzerland and Hong Kong. In total the UK net exported 114 tonnes to China in 2014. Year to date the UK has already net exported 210 tonnes of gold to China, annualized a whopping 280 tonnes, which would be 146 % more than last year. The exodus of gold from the West to the East is still in full swing.
Net export from the UK to Switzerland in September accounted for 44 tonnes, which is 45 % less than in August. Year to date the UK has net exported 417 tonnes of gold to Switzerland, down 0.3 % from 2014 and down 62 % from 2013 – all due to direct gold export to China instead of transshipping it through Switzerland for refining.
Overall the UK was a net exporter in September at 47 tonnes, which is 64 tonnes less than in August. Year to date the UK has net exported 334 tonnes in total – it has also imported gold, explaining total net export can be lower than what was net exported to China and Switzerland.
One of the greatest gold hoards on earth is located in London. The capitol of the UK has been the epicenter of the global wholesale gold market for centuries, hence many bullion banks and central banks have their physical gold stored within the M25 London ring way. It was estimated by a team of gold researchers (Ronan Manly & Nick Laird) that in early June 2015 approximately 6,256 tonnes of gold were stored in London. The composition of these holdings at the time was:
- 5,134 tonnes stored in the vaults at the Bank Of England (BOE), of which at least 3,779 tonnes were owned by central banks, the 1,355 tonnes residual were unknown holdings.
- 1,122 tonnes were stored in vaults outside the BOE, of which 1,116 tonnes in ETFs with a 6 tonnes residual in unknown holdings.
Because central banks are not likely to sell their gold (in significant quantities), what was potentially available for sale is the residual at the BOE (1,355 tonnes), the ETF gold (1,116 tonnes) and the residual outside the BOE and the ETFs (6 tonnes). Totalling at 2,477 tonnes, of which 1,116 tonnes in ETFs and 1,361 tonnes in unknown holdings.
By tracking gold export from the UK we can grasp what is happening to these stocks of gold in London. From 1 June until 30 September 2015 the UK net exported 181 tonnes in total, and GLD (the largest ETF in London) lost 27 tonnes over this period. Consequently, total ETF stocks must have declined to roughly 1,089 on 30 September, and unknown holdings in London down to 1,207 tonnes.
Here at BullionStar we have been writing withdrawals from the vaults of the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE), which equal Chinese wholesale gold demand, have been explosive in recent months. After the Chinese stock market plunged in June SGE withdrawals made an exceptional run up for the time of year. But, as SGE withdrawals skyrocketed we had to wait for foreign trade statistics to learn what the ratio was between recycled gold and import supplying the SGE (domestic mining supply being fairly constant), to get the best overall view on Chinese gold demand. High exports from the UK to China confirm Chinese demand has indeed been very strong this year. Although, it can still be there is more recycled gold flowing through the SGE relative to withdrawals than in previous years, because withdrawals are so exceptionally high this year.
Please read The Mechanics Of The Chinese Domestic Gold Market for a comprehensive explanation of the relationship between SGE withdrawals and Chinese wholesale gold demand.
Remember when in 2013 the gold price went down sharply and Chinese gold demand exploded? Back then Hong Kong net gold exports to China were dominating the headlines as these were thought to be the main indicator for gold going into China mainland. At the time China was importing large amounts of gold through this route, sometimes above 130 tonnes a month. More than a year later the Swiss customs department opened its gold cross-border trade book by deciding to publish gold trade statistics country specific. When we added these numbers to Hong Kong trade statistics we learned Chinese gold import had been (occasionally) more than 160 tonnes a month in 2013. Currently, we’re back at those levels. Aggregated net gold export from Hong Kong, Switzerland and the UK to China was 156 tonnes in September, which excludes gold export from Australia. The most recent data from Australia is from July and shows they have net exported 13 tonnes of gold directly to China (a record). SGE withdrawals were strong in July, but they were strong in August and September as well. I would not be surprised if Australia has exported over 10 tonnes of gold directly to China in August and September. If that appears to be true in the coming months China is importing at a tune of 166 tonnes a month. Let’s have a look at some charts.
In the chart above Australia’s gold export to China is not included for August and September, yet total Chinese gold import (derived from the countries of which I have access to the export data) has already reached 156 tonnes in September 2015.
In the chart below we can see strong SGE withdrawals from June until September have depleted the SGE vaults, which are being replenished by gold imports.
Currently, China is on track to import more than 1,400 tonnes this year, added by domestic gold mining output (476 tonnes) makes 1,876 tonnes.
Yes, it’s safe to say Chinese gold demand is very strong in 2015. We will compare these numbers with Chinese consumer gold demand as disclosed by the World Gold Council in a forthcoming post.
E-mail Koos Jansen on: email@example.com
(courtesy John Embry/Kingworldnews)
Central banking’s attack on metals is more intense than ever, Embry tells KWN
Submitted by cpowell on Wed, 2015-11-11 23:53. Section: Daily Dispatches
6:53p ET Wednesday, November 11, 2015
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Sprott Asset Management’s John Embry tells King World News today that central banking’s attack on the monetary metals has never been as intense as it is now. An excerpt from the interview is posted at the KWN blog here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
Cruz ups the ante by stating two important things:
i) audit the fed
ii) they must go back to the gold standard.
(courtesy New York Sun)
New York Sun: Silent Cal speaks
Submitted by cpowell on Thu, 2015-11-12 01:04. Section: Daily Dispatches
From the New York Sun
Wednesday, November 11, 2015
Call him Calvin Coolidge Cruz. Suddenly Senator Cruz, citing the president who delivered the full-employment economic boom known as the Roaring Twenties, is emerging as a man to watch in the Republican race. Two debates in a row, the senator from Texas declared for the gold standard and sound money, which are associated with high economic growth and low unemployment. He got in ahead of Rand Paul and any of the rest of the pack.
Two debates don’t make a campaign, of course, but the monetary issue is potentially the most transformative question in the race. It’s not just Mr. Cruz, either. Senator Paul, Governors Christie and Huckabee, and Senator Santorum all emerged on this issue last night, each adding enough savvy and subtlety to the question that it is clear the issue is starting to percolate on the hustings. No doubt this is in part because of what happened at the debate in Boulder, when CNBC’s Rick Santelli turned to the Texan and asked him to “focus on our central bank, the Federal Reserve.” …
… For the remainder of the commentary:
Sentiment means nothing in the gold ‘market,’ but GATA’s is to press on
Submitted by cpowell on Thu, 2015-11-12 03:44. Section: Daily Dispatches
11:15p ET Wednesday, November 11, 2015
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Sentiment couldn’t be worse in the monetary metals sector right now. The good news and the bad news are that sentiment doesn’t matter.
Of course Mark Hulbert at MarketWatch thinks it matters, as he makes a business out of gauging the sentiment of financial letter writers, and he even calculates that sentiment for gold is good among those writers and constitutes a contrarian indicator, signifying that the metals will continue to fall, though of course those writers themselves are trying to be contrarian to market sentiment:
And an anonymous blogger who says he attended GATA’s presentation at the New Orleans Investment conference last month writes that GATA Chairman Bill Murphy and your secretary/treasurer “both came across to me as defeated” and “have mentally lost the righteous battle they have been fighting for 15-plus years,” which he construes as another “bottom indicator” for gold:
The guy is entitled to his impressions, and Murphy and your secretary/treasurer didargue in New Orleans that central banks are rigging markets, including the monetary metals markets, more ferociously and obviously than ever. After all, just a few days earlier an Austrian central banker had said as much himself —
— and Sprott Asset Management’s John Embry expressed the same thought tonight:
But “defeated”? Murphy and your secretary/treasurer would not have bothered going to New Orleans if we thought that. We still have enough to eat and drink at home. Nor would your secretary/treasurer, considering GATA defeated, be tapping this out on the keyboard so late at night when he could be watching old episodes of “Hill Street Blues” on TV.
* * *
GATA’s friend J.S. sounds close to defeated tonight anyway. He writes:
“Is there a point where even the noble gentlemen at GATA surrender to the inevitable and just capitulate, or can you ride out your principles to absolute ruin?
“Believe me, I’m on your side in all this, but there hasn’t been any single event — aside from the anomalous exchange-traded fund paper chase of 2010-11 — where we’ve seen any of the analysis from our side come to fruition. Ironically I would contend that the monetary metals are the worst investment precisely because they are the best investment. By this I mean they remain too much of a threat to the real beneficiaries of this country ever to be allowed to flourish.
“I think it’s apparent to all at this point that we live in a command-and-control economy and the people who are so heavily invested in the current paradigm will not hesitate to undertake the most nefarious and draconian measures to ensure that King Dollar is never dethroned. Besides, if the dollar was ever dethroned, I think we would have greater problems to contend with than the fair-market value of the monetary metals. It seems that the better the news for gold, the lower it goes.
“So here we are after another five years with nothing to show for our efforts. Market manipulation has been explained to me a thousand ways but what good is analysis based on economic fundamentals if it never yields a positive outcome? I keep joking with friends and colleagues that when I’m finally ruined by holding out to the inevitable climax for the metals I will become the most erudite homeless person in the world.
“Our blind faith in gold and silver has reached such proportions that it would make even the most zealous evangelical preacher envious, as the ‘gold rapture’ never seems to arrive. Like many others I was extremely confident about why gold and silver were the right choices, but now we are finding ourselves in