Gold: $1116.40 up $.80 (comex closing time)
Silver 14.23 up 1 cents
In the access market 5:15 pm
At the gold comex today, ON FIRST DAY NOTICE we had a poor delivery day, registering 58 notices for 5800 ounces. Silver saw 0 notices for nil oz for first day notice, February contract month. Late in the evening, we had 7 notices for silver for the January contract month for 35,000 oz. Thus the total number of contracts served upon for silver in January numbered 122 for 610,000 oz
Several months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today, the total inventory rests at 199.90 tonnes for a loss of 103 tonnes over that period.
In silver, the open interest rose by 642 contracts up to 156,925. In ounces, the OI is still represented by .785 billion oz or 112% of annual global silver production (ex Russia ex China).
In silver we had 0 notices served upon for nil oz.
In gold, the total comex gold OI fell by a rather large 8,744 contracts to 373,252 contracts as gold was down $0.50 with yesterday’s trading.
Today both the gold comex and the silver comex are in severe stress with gold in backwardation up to March.
We had no changes in gold inventory at the GLD, / thus the inventory rests tonight at 669.23 tonnes. The appetite for gold coming from China is depleting not only gold from the LBMA and GLD but also the comex is bleeding gold. Our 670 tonnes of rock bottom inventory in GLD gold has been broken. It looks to me that China has taken the last amounts of physical gold from the GLD. I guess the only place left for China to receive physical gold, after they deplete the GLD will be the FRBNY and the comex. In silver,/we had another change in inventory, a withdrawal of 1.143 million oz and thus/Inventory rests at 309.510 million oz.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1. Today, we had the open interest in silver rise by 642 contracts up to 156,925 despite the fact that silver was down 22 cents with respect to yesterday’s trading. The total OI for gold fell by 8,744 contracts to 373,252 contracts as gold was down only $0.50 in price from yesterday’s level.
2 a) Gold trading overnight, Goldcore
b) COT report/Harvey
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)Late THURSDAY night,FRIDAY morning: Shanghai UP 3.09% / Hang Sang up. The Nikkei and the rest of Asia closed in the GREEN . Chinese yuan up and yet they still desire further devaluation throughout this year. Oil gained ,rising to 33.25 dollars per barrel for WTI and 35.10 for Brent. Stocks in Europe so far are all in the GREEN after Japan went NIRP. Offshore yuan trades at 6.5965 yuan to the dollar vs 6.5525 for onshore yuan. huge volatility is the Chinese markets screams of credit problems; a leaked document suggests that China will not use the lowering of the RRR reserves but instead provide direct yuan injections into the market/JAPAN INITIATES NIRP(see below
ii)FROM JAPAN 8:30 pm last night: Rumours of negative interest rates:
iii)One hour later: they vote is in (5 vs 4) and they unleash NIRP. HOWEVER THE BADLY NEEDED ASSET PURCHASES ARE KEPT UNCHANGED
( zero hedge)
iv)At 11.30 PM EST LAST NIGHT/10:30 AM FRIDAY MORNING (TOKYO TIME)the markets go haywire with the Nikkei after being up 1000 points crashes
v)FROM CHINA: 8:30 pm last night
from calculations on daily Chinese interventions, it is now assumed that China experienced a net outflow for the 2015 of 1.6 trillion USA. China must act fast as huge FX reserves are liquidated to support the tumbling yuan. China so far has resorted to only one strategy only, i.e. to issue debt and that debt is 350: 1 (total debt/GDP)
( zero hedge)
vi) The introduction of Japanese NIRP will result in currency wars and especially cause the Chinese yuan to devalue faster.
vii) The markets were stunned by Japan’s announcement as one week ago, Kuroda stated that he would not entertain NIRP. No doubt he received a phone call from the BIS that he must do something. The euphoria will last a few days of trading and then reality will set in. NIRP will do nothing for its economy except start a currency war with China and the rest of the currency boys:
i)Deutsche bank eliminates management bonuses due to its horrible $7 billion loss.Their dividend has been eliminated and it will not be coming back until 2017:
ii)Grenade hurled at a refugee shelter but did not explode. Approximately 40% of Germans are telling Merkel to resign:( zero edge)
i) Bond throughout the world are collapsing in yield, rising in price due to Kuroda’s decision to go NIRP. China, no doubt will hasten its decision that it must devalue its yuan against a falling yen
( zero hedge)
ii)Macro Hedge currency funds are getting crushed as they were net long in the strength of the yen:
iii) Norway is caught in a Catch 22: the lower the price of oil causes lower foreign earnings which in translates into a higher demand for NOK which hurts the country as it cannot lower the NOK to shore up its economy:(courtesy zero hedge)
i)what a joke: Iran states that it will never support any supply cut and thus there goes your emergency OPEC meeting:(courtesy zero hedge)
ii)Finally, oil reacts to lousy news: it breaks into the 32 dollar handle:
( zero hedge)
iii) Rig count falls significantly and this did help WTI crude higher on the day!
iv) Deutsche Bank downgrades crude oil:( Deutsche bank/zero hedge)
i) More on the debate of manipulation on gold and silver especially on options expiry something that I have been reporting on for the past 15 years:
ii) Ted Butler
Butler comments on the huge movement of silver at the silver comex
Snider talks about hypothecated and rehypothecated gold, something that we have been harping on for years:
( Jeffrey Snider/Alhambra partners)
iv)the low price of silver has claimed its first primary casualty: Endeavour silver will cut production by 25%
( SRSRocco Report/Steve St Angelo)
iv) Bill Holter’s paper tonight is a good one. it is entitled:
“Weapons of Mass Financial Destruction!”
(courtesy Bill Holter/Holter Sinclair collaboration)
USA STORIES WHICH SHOULD INFLUENCE THE PRICE OF GOLD/SILVER
i)Fourth quarter GDP grew by only .69%. If you would use a proper deflator then the GDP would probably be negative.
( zero hedge)
ii)Macy’s slashes guidance once again:
iii) A good look at the USA economy and what it is really producing:
iv) The important University of Michigan confidence index tumbled from its December print. Also the important (for the Fed) inflation expectations for 12 months drops again:
v) do not put faith in these crooked numbers for the national Chicago manufacturing PMI index:
Let us head over to the comex:
The total gold comex open interest fell to 373,252 for a loss of 8,744 contracts as the price of gold was down $0.50 in price with respect to yesterday’s trading. For the past two years, we have strangely witnessed two interesting developments with respect to the gold open interest: 1) total gold comex collapse in OI as we enter an active delivery month, and 2) a continual drop in the amount of gold standing in an active month. Today, both scenarios again was in order. We are now leaving the non active January contract which is now off the board. We now enter the big active delivery month is February and here the OI fell by a monstrous 19,216 contracts down to 6,470. The next non active delivery month of March saw its OI rise by 366 contracts up to 1385. After March, the active delivery month of April saw it’s OI rise by 9805 contracts up to 257,860.The estimated volume today (which is just comex sales during regular business hours of 8:20 until 1:30 pm est) was 149,022 which is poor considering the huge number of rollovers.. The confirmed volume yesterday (which includes the volume during regular business hours + access market sales the previous day was fair at 215,861 contracts. The comex is in backwardation up until March.
Feb contract month:
INITIAL standings for FEBRUARY
|Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz|| nil
|Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz nil||1607.500 oz
Scotia /50 kilobars
|Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz|| 8,000.11 oz
|Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz|| nil
|No of oz served (contracts) today||58 contracts
|No of oz to be served (notices)|| 6412 contracts
(641,200 oz )
|Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month||58 contracts (5800 oz)|
|Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month||nil|
|Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month||1607.500 oz|
Total customer deposits nil oz
we had 0 adjustments.
Here are the number of oz held by JPMorgan:
FEBRUARY INITIAL standings/
|Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory||nil|
|Withdrawals from Customer Inventory||28,084.01 oz
|Deposits to the Dealer Inventory||nil|
|Deposits to the Customer Inventory||1,170,285.25 oz,
|No of oz served today (contracts)||0 contracts
|No of oz to be served (notices)||103 contracts
|Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)||0 contracts
|Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month||nil oz|
|Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month||28,084.01 oz|
Today, we had 0 deposits into the dealer account:
total dealer deposit;nil oz
we had 0 dealer withdrawals:
total dealer withdrawals: nil
we had 2 customer deposits:
i) Into scotia: 600,147.550 oz
ii) Into HSBC: 570,137.700 oz
total customer deposits: 1,170,285.25 oz
total withdrawals from customer account 28,084.01 oz
we had 3 MAMMOTH adjustments:
i) Out of the CNT vault:
we had an adjustment of 3,884,164.125 oz adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account of CNT
ii) Out of the Brinks vault:
we have 2,678,845.26 oz adjusted out of the dealer account and this landed into the customer account of Brinks:
iii) Out of Scotia: 1,229,100.915 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account of Scotia.
Total removal from dealer to customer: 7792,110.31 oz
What on earth is going on here? The amount standing is 1/2 million oz. What caused this massive shift from dealer silver into customer silver?
And now the Gold inventory at the GLD:
JAN 29/2016/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 669.23 tonnes
jAN 28/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 669.23
jan 27/another huge addition of 5.06 tonnes of gold to GLD/Inventory rests at 669.23 tonnes /most likely the addition is a paper deposit and not real physical,especially with gold in backwardation in both London and the comex.
Jan 26.no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 664.17 tonnes
Jan 25./a huge deposit of 2.08 tonnes of gold into the GLD/inventory rests at 664.17 tonnes
most likely the addition is a paper deposit and not real physical
Jan 22/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 662.09 tonnes
Jan 21.2016: a huge deposit of 4.17 tonnes/Inventory rests at 662.09 tonnes
most likely the addition is a paper deposit and not real physical
jan 20/ no change in inventory at THE GLD/Inventory rests at 657.92 tonnes
Jan 29.2016: inventory rests at 669.23 tonnes
|Gold COT Report – Futures|
|Change from Prior Reporting Period|
|non reportable positions||Change from the previous reporting period|
|COT Gold Report – Positions as of||Tuesday, January 26, 2016|
Those commercials that have been long in gold pitched a monstrous 25,380 contracts from their long side??
Those commercials that have been short in gold covered 5680 contacts from their short side.
Our small specs;
those small specs that have been long in gold added 4794 contracts to their long side
those small specs that have been short in gold added a tiny 450 contracts to their short side.
the commercials go net short by a whopping 19700 contracts but it is done by liquidating 25,380 contracts from their long position. very strange!
|Silver COT Report: Futures|
|Small Speculators||Open Interest||Total|
|non reportable positions||Positions as of:||141||122|
|Tuesday, January 26, 2016||© SilverSeek.com|
Our large specs:
Those large specs that have been long in silver added 724 contracts to their long side
Those large specs that have been short in silver covered a huge 7904 contracts from their short side.
those commercials that have been long in silver pitched 3280 contracts from their long side
those commercials that have been short in silver added 5810 contracts to their short side.
Our small specs:
Those small specs that have been long in silver added 294 contracts to their long side
Those small specs that have been short in silver covered 168 contracts from their short side.
And now your overnight trading in gold, FRIDAY MORNING and also physical stories that may interest you:
Gold and Silver Manipulation: Can It Be Verified?
Dr Brian Lucey, Dr Jonathan Batten and Dr Maurice Peat have just published some interesting research looking at the thorny issue of whether there is manipulation of gold and silver prices.
In their paper “Gold and Silver Manipulation: What Can Be Empirically Verified?”, they examine the issue of “gold and silver price manipulation, in particular price suppression.”
Source: Gold and Silver Manipulation: What Can Be Empirically Verified? – SSRN
Their research, to be found on the Social Science Research Network (SSRN) website, is not conclusive:
“Do these findings clearly support the notion of price suppression? No. They are at best suggestive,” said authors, Brian Lucey of Trinity College in Dublin, Jonathan Battena of Monash University in Australia, and Maurice Peat of the University of Sydney Business School.
The study highlights contract expiration dates as the likely time for price manipulation or suppression. The researchers said they noticed large spikes in returns around the last three days of each month, which is typically when futures and options contracts expire.
Precious Metal Prices
29 Jan: USD 1,112.90, EUR 1,019.89 and GBP 776.84 per ounce
28 Jan: USD 1,119.00, EUR 1,026.14 and GBP 781.59 per ounce
27 Jan: USD 1,116.50, EUR 1,027.14 and GBP 781.04 per ounce
26 Jan: USD 1,114.70, EUR 1,028.42 and GBP 785.80 per ounce
25 Jan: USD 1,103.70, EUR 1,020.29 and GBP 773.96 per ounce
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Ted Butler on the huge movements of silver into and out of comex vaults:
(courtesy Ted Butler)
Theodore Butler | January 28, 2016 – 7:32pm Facebook Twitter Forward Print
The turnover or physical movement of metal brought into or taken out of the COMEX silver warehouses literally exploded over the last three weeks, as nearly 22 million ounces were moved and total inventories fell 4.5 million ounces, to 156.9 million ounces. I can recall only a few weeks over the past five years where more silver was physically moved. Please remember that I am speaking of physical movement and not paper work changes of metal being reclassified between the registered and eligible COMEX categories, on which so much is written. Physical turnover is just that – metal taken from warehouses and put on trucks and metal taken off trucks and put into the COMEX warehouses.
The amounts of physical silver being shuffled into and out from the various COMEX silver warehouses is enormous, equally 50% and more of world total mine production at times. I continue to be flabbergasted that the COMEX silver warehouse movement is completely overlooked in the analytical community despite this movement being so large, persistent and easy to verify.
For five years, I have ranted and raved about the frantic turnover and physical movement of the COMEX silver inventories. Most importantly, this frantic physical inventory movement is unique to silver and no other commodity. Compared to any other commodity, the turnover is unusual because there is so much less silver in the world than there was 20, 30 or 60 years ago. What little silver we have left in the world is spinning in and out of the COMEX warehouses like there is no tomorrow. My conclusion is that it represents extreme tightness in the wholesale physical silver market. Physical tightness and shortage are not different, except in degree.
Of the 40 to 50 billion ounces of silver mined throughout history, the total visible world inventory of 1,000 ounce bars is less than one billion ounces. Further, we know the reason we have such a small amount of silver remaining compared to what was produced throughout history – because the vast bulk was consumed industrially over the past 50 or 100 years. That’s why we have more gold in the world than silver, despite much larger production in silver than in gold
Over the past five years, world visible silver inventories have remained flat to lower, even though the data reflected that true total inventories were no longer being depleted. This fits in nicely with my premise that JPMorgan has been accumulating massive amounts of physical silver and shielding it from view.
Total COMEX silver inventories hit their lowest level in three years, at under 155.4 million ounces recently. That’s down by nearly 30 million ounces from last year and flies in the face of the widespread belief in a silver surplus. Not only are visible silver inventories actually decreasing, the inventories are being frantically turned over. The price of silver remains stuck at some impossible-to-justify depressed level, yet physical demand has caused its turnover to explode. I don’t think there could be more compelling proof of price manipulation and a skyrocketing price to come. The surplus in crude oil is as real as rain and the price is mostly reflective of the physical glut in oil. But the “surplus” in silver is only a surplus of COMEX futures contracts and not of real metal. The evidence in silver points to a growing physical tightness based upon the documented COMEX physical turnover and visible inventories shrinking instead of growing. If that’s not an invitation to buy and hold silver, then I don’t know what is.
January 28, 2016
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The following is something that we have been harping on for years:
(courtesy Jeffrey Snider/Alhambra partners)
Endeavour silver will cut production by 25%
(courtesy SRSRocco Report/Steve St Angelo)
Federal Reserve Bank of NY report on gold leavings its vaults:
In November the total earmarked gold held = 8,001 million dollars worth of gold at $42.22
In December: the closing earmarked gold held: 7995 million dollars worth of gold at $42.22
Thus a total of 6 million dollars worth of gold left NY at a value of 42.22 dollars per oz
or 142,112 oz . This represents a total of only 4.4203 tonnes and this gold definitely left for Germany as this is the gold that they wished repatriated. I am now not sure if this was already included in Germany’s total repatriation of 210 tonnes as you will recall we were missing 5 tonnes. Thus the missing 5 tonnes could be the 5 tonnes that was shipped in 2013 or the latest 4.4 tonnes of December removal from the FRBNY. Regardless, Germany is the recipient of all FRBNY shipped out.
Bank Of Japan Unleashes 3-Tier Negative Interest Rate Policy
While keeping asset purchases the same, The Bank of Japan confirmed the earlier leaked details that it will shift to a negative interest rate policy:
- *BOJ: ADOPTS RATE OF -0.1%
- *BOJ: VOTES 5-4 TO ADOPT NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES
- *BOJ: WILL CUT RATE FURTHER IF NEEDED
- *BOJ: KEEPS ASSET PURCHASES UNCHANGED
- *BOJ RETAINS PLAN FOR 80T YEN ANNUAL RISE IN MONETARY BASE
- *BOJ: JAPAN ECONOMY HAS CONTINUED TO RECOVERY MODERATELY
- *BANK OF JAPAN: NEGATIVE INTEREST RATE TO APPLY FROM FEB. 16
Clearly the decision was far from unanimous. Japanese stocks and USDJPY have exploded higher…
The adoption of NIRP enables The BoJ to break the bond market even further…
- *BOJ: POLICY FRAMEWORK DESIGNED TO LET BOJ PURSUE MORE EASING
- *BOJ: TIERS TO INCLUDE POSITIVE RATE, ZERO RATE OR NEGATIVE RATE
- *BOJ: MULTI TIER SYSTEM RESEMBLES SOME IN EUROPE E.G. SWISS BANK
- *BOJ: DEPOSIT RATE CUT WILL LOWER SHORT END OF YIELD CURVE
So The BoJ follows EU’s route – because that has worked out so well for them!!
- *BOJ: 3-TIER RATES ENSURE NO `UNDUE DECREASES’ IN BANK EARNINGS
- *BANK OF JAPAN: NEGATIVE INTEREST RATE TO APPLY FROM FEB. 16
- *BOJ: POSITIVE RATE OF 0.1% APPLIES TO EXISTING BALANCE
- *BOJ: ZERO RATE APPLIES TO REQUIRED RESERVES HELD BY BANKS
- *BOJ:MINUS RATE APPLIES TO ACCOUNTS IN EXCESS OF THESE AMOUNTS
- *BOJ WILL CONTINUE NOT TO SET LOWER BOUND FOR YIELD ON JGB BUYS
In other words – all excess reserves will cost you – so liquify the stock market with them!
Dow futures are soaring on the collapse in Yen…
* * *
At 11.30 PM EST LAST NIGHT/10:30 AM FRIDAY MORNING (TOKYO TIME)
the markets go haywire with the nikkei after being up 1000 points crashes:
Nikkei Crashes 1000 Points Post-Kuroda After BoJ Adopts NIRP, Fails To Increase QE
Well that did not last long. After initial exuberance over The BoJ’s wishy-washy decision to adopt a 3-tiered rate policy including NIRP, markets have realized that without further asset purchases (which were maintained at the current pace), there is no ammo to lift stocks. An almost 200 point surge in Dow futures has been erased and Nikkei 225 has dropped 1000 points from its post BOJ highs…
And Nikkei has crashed 1000 points…
(courtesy zero hedge)
Indictment Looms As FBI Declares 22 Clinton Home-Server Emails “Top Secret”
Just as we warned, and she must have known, it appears at least 22 of the emails found on Hillary Clinton’s private email server have been declared “top secret” by The FBI(but will not be releasing the contents) according to AP.
Clinton has insisted she never sent or received information on her personal email account that was classified at the time. No emails released so far were stamped “CLASSIFIED” or “TOP SECRET,” but reviewers previously had designated more than 1,000 messages at lower classification levels for public release. Friday’s will be the first at the top secret level.
The Obama administration is confirming for the first time that Hillary Clinton’s unsecured home server contained some closely guarded secrets, including material requiring one of the highest levels of classification.
The revelation comes just three days before the Iowa presidential nominating caucuses in which Clinton is a candidate.
The State Department will release more emails from Clinton’s time as secretary of state later Friday.
But The Associated Press has learned that 7 email chains are being withheld in full for containing “top secret” material.
The 37 pages include messages recently described by a key intelligence official as concerning so-called “special access programs” — a highly restricted subset of classified material that could point to confidential sources or clandestine programs like drone strikes or government eavesdropping.
Department officials wouldn’t describe the substance of the emails, or say if Clinton had sent any herself.
Spokesman John Kirby tells the AP that no judgment on past classification was made. But the department is looking into that, too.
For those that Clinton only read, and didn’t write or forward, she still would have been required to report classification slippages that she recognized.
Possible responses for classification infractions include counseling, warnings or other action, State Department officials said, though they declined to say if these applied to Clinton or senior aides who’ve since left the department. The officials weren’t authorized to speak on the matter and spoke on condition of anonymity.
However, as we previously noted, the implications are tough for The DoJ – if they indict they crush their own candidate’s chances of the Presidency, if they do not – someone will leak the details and the FBI will revolt… The leaking of the Clinton emails has been compared to as the next “Watergate” by former U.S. Attorney Joe DiGenova this week, if current FBI investigations don’t proceed in an appropriate manner. The revelation comes after more emails from Hilary Clinton’s personal email have come to light.
“[The investigation has reached] a critical mass,” DiGenova told radio host Laura Ingraham when discussing the FBI’s still pending investigation. Though Clinton is still yet to be charged with any crime, DiGenova advised on Tuesday that changes may be on the horizon. The mishandling over the classified intelligence may lead to an imminent indictment, withDiGenova suggesting it may come to a head within 60 days.
“I believe that the evidence that the FBI is compiling will be so compelling that, unless [Lynch] agrees to the charges, there will be a massive revolt inside the FBI, which she will not be able to survive as an attorney general,” he said.
“The intelligence community will not stand for that. They will fight for indictment and they are already in the process of gearing themselves to basically revolt if she refuses to bring charges.”
The FBI also is looking into Clinton’s email setup, but has said nothing about the nature of its probe. Independent experts say it is highly unlikely that Clinton will be charged with wrongdoing, based on the limited details that have surfaced up to now and the lack of indications that she intended to break any laws.
“What I would hope comes out of all of this is a bit of humility” and an acknowledgement from Clinton that “I made some serious mistakes,” said Bradley Moss, a Washington lawyer who regularly handles security clearance matters.
Legal questions aside, it’s the potential political costs that are probably of more immediate concern for Clinton. She has struggled in surveys measuring her perceived trustworthiness and an active federal investigation, especially one buoyed by evidence that top secret material coursed through her account, could negate one of her main selling points for becoming commander in chief: Her national security resume.
Let’s close the week out with this wrap with courtesy of Greg Hunter of uSAWatchdog
(courtesy Greg Hunter/USAWatchdog)