MAY 19/Gld adds 4.45 tonnes of gold with the price of gold down $19.50?/China fires another shot across the bow by devaluing the yuan by the most since last August/Vicious raid against gold and silver today but gold/silver equity shares rise/Egyptian passenger aircraft goes down in the Mediterranean subject to a terrorist attack/Suspected loci was the Charles de Gaulle airport in Paris/5 banks including Deutsche bank and Bank of America sued for fraud and price fixing in agency bonds/Eliz Holmes of Theranos admits that her billion dollar company is a fraud/Philly mfg index plummet to negative territory again/

Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen:

Gold:  $1,254.20 DOWN $19.50    (comex closing time)

Silver 16.48  DOWN 64 cents

In the access market 5:15 pm

Gold $1254.70

silver:  16.51

Yesterday I wrote the following:

“No doubt that the entire trading of gold and silver today was orchestrated by our crooked banks. They were massively selling paper gold throughout the night and early morning. Even the one billion dollar bid for gold early this morning did not spook the crooks.  At 2 pm they released the beige book report and the Fed stated that it is likely that they will raise rates in June. The USA should raise rates but the problem will be China who has threatened to lower dramatically the yuan and in so doing would absolutely kill Japan, South Korea and the emerging markets. Besides no Fed would be stupid enough to raise rates three months before a USA election.”

 

China wasted no time firing another shot across the bow by  devaluing the yuan further today,and this put tremendous pressure on global markets.

 

The amount standing for gold in May is simply outstanding at 6.504 tonnes, remaining constant by from yesterday.  The previous May 2015, we had only .08 tonnes standing so you can certainly witness the difference as the demand for gold by investors/sovereigns is on a torrid pace. This makes the excitement for June gold that much more intense as more players are refusing fiat and demanding only physical metal. I will be reporting daily as to how which is standing for delivery through the active month of June.  June is the second largest delivery month after December.

Let us have a look at the data for today

.

At the gold comex today we had a POOR delivery day, registering 0 notices for NIL ounces for gold,and for silver we had 3 notices for 15,000 oz for the non active May delivery month.

Several months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today, the total inventory rests at 240.39 tonnes for a loss of 63 tonnes over that period

.

In silver, the open interest FELL by 2,465 contracts DOWN to 204,929 as the price was silver was DOWN  by 11 cents with respect to yesterday’s trading. NOT NEARLY THE LIQUIDATION THAT THEY HAVE BEN LOOKING FOR. In ounces, the OI is still represented by just over 1 BILLION oz i.e. .1.024 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 146% of annual global silver production (ex Russia &ex China)

In silver we had 1 notice served upon for 5,000 oz.

In gold, the total comex gold OI fell by a CONSIDERABLE 4,377 contracts down to 590,700 as the price of gold was DOWN $2.50 with yesterday’s trading(at comex closing).

 

 

 

As far as the GLD, THE FOLLOWING MAKES NO SENSE AT ALL: WE HAD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 4.42 TONNES in inventory at the GLD WITH GOLD DOWN $19.50. The inventory rests at 860.34 tonnes. We had no changes in silver inventory at the SLV. Inventory rests at 335.073 million oz.

.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in silver rise by 1,180 contracts UP to 207,394 as the price of silver was DOWN by 11 cents with yesterday’s trading. The gold open interest FELL by 1,436 contracts as  gold was up $2.50 yesterday. Somebody big is standing FOR SILVER and surrounding the comex with paper longs ready to ponce once called upon to take out physical silver.I also believe that for the first time we are witnessing players wishing to stand for real physical in gold.  Gold investors, in the May contract month are refusing the tempting fiat offer as they want only physical.

(report Harvey).

 

2 a) Gold trading overnight, Goldcore

(Mark OByrne/off today

2b)  Gold trading earlier this morning;

(Harvey/zero hedge)

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late  TUESDAY night/ WEDNESDAY morning: Shanghai closed DOWN  BY 36.10 PTS OR 1.27%  /  Hang Sang closed DOWN 292.39 OR 1.45%. The Nikkei closed DOWN 8.11 POINTS OR 0.06% . Australia’s all ordinaires  CLOSED DOWN 0.74% Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.5362 as China fired another shot across the bow telling the USA not to raise rates.  Oil ROSE to 47.76 dollars per barrel for WTI and 48.80 for Brent. Stocks in Europe  MOSTLY IN THE GREEN . Offshore yuan trades  6.5581 yuan to the dollar vs 6.5362 for onshore yuan.THE SPREAD BETWEEN ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE WIDENS.

REPORT ON JAPAN  SOUTH KOREA AND CHINA

a) REPORT ON JAPAN

none today

b) REPORT ON CHINA

i)As promised, the POBC has sent a message to the Fed tonight concerning their “likely” raising their interest rate in June:  the second largest devaluation since August:6.56557

Time:  10 pm est:

USDCNY:CUR  onshore
6.5420
CNY
0.0034
0.05%
As of 10:07 PM EDT 5/18/2016
USA/CNH

U.S. Dollar/Chinese Yuan
6.56776  offshore
-0.00683
(-0.10%)
yesterday’s closing prior to China’s opening: Offshore yuan trades  6.5581 yuan to the dollar vs 6.5362 on shore
CHINA’S MESSAGE TO THE USA IS SIMPLE:  EITHER ABANDON THOUGHTS OF A RATE INCREASE AND LET CHINA REFLATE OUR ELSE CHINA WILL DEVALUE HUGELY BRINGING MASSIVE TURMOIL TO ALL MARKETS;  CHECK TO JANET YELLEN!!
( zero hedge)

ii)After annoying the Russians by flying very close to their territory, the USA decided it was high time to annoy the Chinese:

 

( zero hedge)
iii)China is furious with the USA over the 522% duty on steel.  It is probably China’s falt for increasing its capacity so much to produce that steel.  It now has huge excesses and as countries seek protectionism, that inventory will stay stationary inside China:

( zero hedge)
 

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)Looks like the EU-Turkey migrant deal is falling apart as EU has second thoughts on granted 80,000 visa entry to Turkish citizens.  The threat of unwanted people entering Europe is weighing in on the issue

 

( Soeren Kern/Gatestone Institute)

 

ii)Why Tim Price is voting to leave the EU:

I also urge you to watch the BREXIT movie
( Tim Price/SovereignMan.com)

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)Egyptian aircraft carrying 66 on board crashes into the Med. Sea.  It seems it blew up in mid air and thus it sure looks like another terrorist attack:

( zero hedge)

 

ii)Then at 1 pm CNN reports that it was a bomb that blew up the Egyptian Airliner:

( zero hedge)

6.GLOBAL ISSUES

FIVE BANKS INCLUDING BANK OF AMERICA AND DEUTSCHE BANK HAVE BEEN SUED OVER MANIPULATION IN AGENCY BONDS:

(COURTESY BLOOMBERG)

 

7.PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Doug Pollitt comments on gold’s continuing respect

(courtesy Doug Pollitt/GATA

 

ii)GoldMoney launches a gold payroll and gold payout application for the BitGold business platform

( Business Wire/SF California/GATA))

 

8.USA STORIES WHICH MAY INFLUENCE THE PRICE OF GOLD AND SILVER

i)Late last night, Elizabeth Holmes admits that billion dollar company Theranos is a fraud: the technology is a fraud:

( zero hedge)

ii)Bellwether Caterpillar has retail sales falling for a record 41 consecutive months.The global growth is stagnant!

( zero hedge)

 

iii)Dudley disappoints and this causes stocks to fall some more.  He is totally unhappy that even a hint that the Fed will hike causes markets to falter:

( zero hedge)
iv)Basically Gundlach feels that something has changed at the Fed. I don’t think anything changed:  The Fed cannot raise rates because the economy is in poor shape, it would be foolish to raise rates with an election in November and most importantly, China will certainly react to a higher dollar by devaluing its yuan:

(courtesy zero hedge/Jeff Gundlach)
v)Highmark insurer is now asking for money owed by the Fedeal government for some of its losses:

( zero hedge)
vi)Puerto Rico is to be bailed out.  The bondholders are not happy with the result:

( zero hedge)
vii)USA jobless claims continue to rise:  278,000 vs est. 275,000

( Reuters)

Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest FELL to an OI level of 590,700 for a CONSIDERABLE LOSS of 4,377 contracts AS  THE PRICE OF GOLD WAS DOWN  $2.50 with respect to YESTERDAY’S TRADING.  We are now entering the NON active delivery month of MAY. For the past two years, we have strangely witnessed two interesting developments and we have generally seen two phenomena happen respect to the gold open interest:  1) total gold comex collapses in OI as we enter any delivery month  and 2) a continual drop in the amount of gold standing in that month as that month progresses. IT SURE SEEMS THAT THE LATER HAS STOPPED.   The month of May saw its OI FALL 8 contracts DOWN to 111. We had 8 notices filed  YESTERDAY so we NEITHER GAINED NOR LOST ANY gold contracts THAT will stand for delivery. The next big active gold contract is June and here the OI FELL by 16,523 contracts DOWN to 304,683 as those paper players that wished to stay in the game rolled to August AND THE REST STAYED PUT FOR NOW AND THE REMAINDER LEFT PERMANENTLY. The estimated volume today (which is just comex sales during regular business hours of 8:20 until 1:30 pm est) was excellent at 359,767. The confirmed volume  yesterday (which includes the volume during regular business hours + access market sales the previous day was EXCELLENT at 275,430 contracts. The comex is not in backwardation. We are LESS THAN 2 weeks away from first day notice for the huge June contract.(8 trading sessions)

Today we had 0 notices filed for NIL oz in gold.

 

And now for the wild silver comex results. Silver OI FELL by A SMALL 2467 contracts from 207,394 DOWN to 204,929 as the price of silver was DOWN BY 11 cents with YESTERDAY’S TRADING.We HAVE NOW SURPASSED the all time high OI in silver of 206,748. For the first time in over 2 years, we have not witnessed a liquidation of open interest as we ENTERED first day notice .  The next active contract month is May and here the OI FELL by 2 contracts DOWN to 727. We had 3 notices filed yesterday so we  gained 1 contract or an additional 5,000 oz of silver will stand in this non-active delivery month of May. The next non active month of June saw its OI RISE by 10 contracts UP to 849 OI. The next big delivery month is July and here the OI FELL by 2,957 contracts down to 137,790. The volume on the comex today (just comex) came in at 79,964 which is HUGE. The confirmed volume YESTERDAY (comex + globex) was EXCELLENT at 64,937. Silver is  in backwardation up to June. London is in backwardation for several months.
 
We had 3 notices filed for 15,000 oz.
 

MAY contract month:

INITIAL standings for MAY

May 19.
Gold
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz   nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz  nil  11,284.25 OZ

MANFRA, SCOTIA

351 KILOBARS

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz  

 

 

NIL

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz    NIL
No of oz served (contracts) today 8 contracts
(800 oz)
No of oz to be served (notices) 111 CONTRACTS

11,100 OZ

Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month 1980 contracts (198,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawals  of gold from the Dealers inventory this month   nil
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month  282,272.4 OZ

Today we had 0 dealer deposits

Today we had 0 dealer withdrawals:

total dealer withdrawals:  nil oz

 

Today we had 0 customer deposit:

Total customer deposits;NIL OZ

Today we had 2 customer withdrawals:

i) Out of Manfra:  32.15 oz  I KILOBARS

ii) Out of Scotia:  11,252.500 oz  (350 kilobars)

total customer withdrawals: 11,284.65 OZ  351 kilobars)

Today we had 1 adjustment:

i) Out of jpm:

11,115.419 oz was removed from the dealer jpm and into the customer jpm and that will be deemed a settlement:  1.5635 tonnes

ii) out of HSBC: 70,412.998 oz was removed from the dealer HSBC and this lands into the customer account of HSBC

total  81,525.417 oz or 2.53 tonnes

 

Today, 0 notices was issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 0 contracts of which 0 notices was stopped (received) by JPMorgan dealer and 0 notices were stopped (received)  by JPMorgan customer account. 
To calculate the initial total number of gold ounces standing for the MAY contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1980) x 100 oz  or 198,000 oz , to which we  add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY (111 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (0) x 100 oz   x 100 oz per contract equals 209,000 oz, the number of ounces standing in this non active month.  This number is huge for May. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE AMOUNT STANDING FOR GOLD IN MAY WILL HOLD AND WITH THAT IT WILL BRING MUCH EXCITEMENT TO JUNE 
 
Thus the initial standings for gold for the MAY. contract month:
No of notices served so far (1980) x 100 oz  or ounces + {OI for the front month (119) minus the number of  notices served upon today (0) x 100 oz which equals xxxx oz standing in this non  active delivery month of MAY(6.5038 tonnes).
WE NEITHER GAINED NOR LOST ANY GOLD OUNCES STANDING IN THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY.
Since the comex allows GLD shares to be used for settling, it may take quite a while for the physical gold to enter the comex vaults.  So far I have seen little evidence of any settling of contracts but I will continue to monitor it for you. 
 
We thus have 6.5038 tonnes of gold standing for MAY and 19.595 tonnes of registered gold for sale, waiting to serve upon those standing.  The bankers are still doing their best in cash settling as there is not enough registered gold to satisfy those that are standing.
We now have partial evidence of gold settling for last months deliveries We now have 6.5038 TONNES FOR MAY + 12.3917 tonnes (April) +2.2311 tonnes (March) + 7.99 (total Feb)- .940 (probable delivery on March 1) tonnes -.0434 tonnes (March 11,12,17,18) + March 31: 1.2470 and then  April 1,2: – .0006 tonnes  and last week April 16 .3203 and April 22 .(0009 tonnes) + april 29  .205 tonnes + May 5:  3.799 and May 6: 1.607 tonnes – MAY 12  .0003- May 18: 1.5635 tonnes-May 19/   2.535 tonnes  = 16.8525 tonnes still standing against 19.595 tonnes available.
 
Total dealer inventor 630,004.832 tonnes or 19.595 tonnes
Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) =7,728,641.388 or 240.39 tonnes 
 
Several months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today the total inventory rests at 240.39 tonnes for a loss of 63 tonnes over that period. 
 
JPMorgan has only 22.79 tonnes of gold total (both dealer and customer)
JPMorgan now has only .900 tonnes left in its dealer account.
May is not a very good delivery month and yet 6.5079 tonnes of gold is standing.  What is different from other months is that the bankers cannot offer any fiat to those standing. They want the real stuff. We are extremely close to the all time highs in both gold and silver OI.
 end
And now for silver
 

MAY INITIAL standings

 May 19.2016

Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory nl oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory  406,486.34 oz

CNT, BRINKS

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory  NIL
Deposits to the Customer Inventory  604,095.600 OZ

,JPM,

No of oz served today (contracts) 3 CONTRACTS 

15,000 OZ

No of oz to be served (notices) 724 contracts

3,620,000 oz

Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 2056 contracts (10,280,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month nil oz
Total accumulative withdrawal  of silver from the Customer inventory this month  7,694,710.1 oz

today we had 0 deposit into the dealer account

total dealer deposit:NIL oz

we had 0 dealer withdrawals:

total dealer withdrawals:  nil

we had 1 customer deposits:

i) Into JPM: 604,095.600 oz

Total customer deposits: 604,095.600 oz.

We had 2 customer withdrawals

i) out of CNT: 405,486.34 oz

ii) Out of BRINKS: 1,000.000 oz ??

:

total customer withdrawals:  406,486.34 oz

 
 

 

 we had 0 adjustment

 

The total number of notices filed today for the MAY contract month is represented by 3 contracts for 15,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in May., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at (2056) x 5,000 oz  = 10,280000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY (727) and the number of notices served upon today (3) x 5000 oz equals the number of ounces standing 
 
Thus the initial standings for silver for the MAY contract month:  2056 (notices served so far)x 5000 oz +(727{ OI for front month of MAY ) -number of notices served upon today (3)x 5000 oz  equals 13,900,000 oz of silver standing for the MAY contract month.
WE GAINED ONE SILVER CONTRACTS TODAY OR AN ADDITIONAL 5,000 OZ WILL STAND.
 
Total dealer silver:  29.67 million
Total number of dealer and customer silver:   153.537 million oz
The open interest on silver is NOW AT CLOSE an all time high with the record of 207,394 being set May 18.2016. The registered silver (dealer silver) is close to multi year lows as silver is being drawn out and heading to China and other destinations. The shear movement of silver into and out of the vaults signify that something is going on in silver.
end
And now the Gold inventory at the GLD
May 19/ANOTHER HUGE DEPOSIT OF 4.46 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/iNVENTORY RESTS AT 860.34 TONNES
May 18 /no changes in inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 855.89 tonnes.
May 17/ we had a huge deposit of 4.76 tonnes of gold into the GLD/Inventory rests tonight at 855.89 tonnes/in the last two and 1/2 weeks we have added 50 tonnes of gold and this most likely was all paper gold addition..
May 16./ today we had no changes in inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 851.13 tonnes
May 13./another addition of 5.94 tonnes of gold into the GLD/Inventory rests at 851.13 tonnes
May 12/another huge deposit of 3.27 tonnes in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 845.19 tonnes
May 11/another huge deposit of 2.67 tonnes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 841.92 tonnes
May 10/Another huge deposit of 2.38 tonnes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 839.25 tonnes
May 9/Surprisingly we had another deposit of 2.68 tonnes of gold into the GLD with gold down!! Inventory 836.87 tonnes
May 6 SURPRISINGLY WE HAD ANOTHER HUGE DEPOSIT OF 8.65 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 834.19 TONNES
May 5/SURPRISINGLY WE HAD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.90 TONNES OF GOLD WITH THE PRICE OF GOLD DOWN???
May 4/ we had a small deposit of .6 tonnes of gold into the GLD/inventory rests at 825.54 tonnes
May 3/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory  rests at 824.94 tonnes
May 2/a hugechange in gold inventory at the GLD a deposit of 20.80/Inventory rests at 824.94 tonnes
April 29/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 804.14 tonnes
April 28/we gained 1.49 tonnes of gold at the GLD/Inventory rests at 804.14
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

May 19.:  inventory rests tonight at 860.34 tonnes

end

Now the SLV Inventory
May 19/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 335.073 million oz
May 18/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 335.073 million oz/
May 17/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 335.073 million oz/
May 16./no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 335.073 million oz
May 13./no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 335.073 million oz
May 12/no change in silver inventory/rests tonight at 335.073 million oz/
 May 11.2016/no change in silver inventory/rests tonight at 335.073 million oz/
May 10.2016/we had a huge withdrawal of 1.046 million oz in silver leaving the SLV,no doubt for Shanghai which lately has been gobbling up whatever inventory it could lay its hands on/Inventory rests at 335.073 million oz.
May 9. no change in silver inventory/rests at 336.119 million oz.
May 6/ SURPRISINGLY WE HAD A WITHDDRAWAL OF 1.142 MILLLION OZ FROM THE SLV
INVENTORY RESTS AT 336.119 MILLION OZ
MAY 5.2016: NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY/rests tonight at 337.261 million oz
May 4/we had a good size withdrawal of 1.553 million oz from the SLV/Inventory rests at 337.261 million oz
May 3: we had another huge deposit of 1.807 million oz/inventory rests at 338.814 million oz
May 2/a huge in silver inventory at the SLV/a deposit of 1.49 million oz/Inventory rests at 337.007 million oz
April 29.2016/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 335.580
April 28/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 335.580 million oz
.
May 19.2016: Inventory 335.073 million oz
end
 
1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative 3.9 percent to NAV usa funds and Negative 3,9% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!!
Percentage of fund in gold 61.5%
Percentage of fund in silver:37.1%
cash .+1.4%( May 19/2016).
2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): Premium rises   to -.01%!!!! NAV (MAY 19.2016) 
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  RISES 1.25% to NAV  ( MAY 19.2016)
Note: Sprott silver trust back  into NEGATIVE territory at -01% /Sprott physical gold trust is back into positive territory at +1.22%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail.
It looks like Eric Sprott got on the nerves of our bankers as they lowered the premium in silver to -.01%.  Remember that Eric is to get 75 million dollars worth of silver in a new offering.
 
 
 

END

And now your overnight trading in gold,THURSDAY MORNING and also physical stories that may interest you:

Trading in gold and silver overnight in Asia and Europe
Mark O’Byrne (goldcore)

Buy Gold and Silver Coins and Bars – Leading Irish Financial Adviser

Buy gold and silver coins and bars for delivery and storage has advocated a leading Irish financial adviser. Eddie Hobbs has given advice to his clients and says that they should buy silver and gold bullion in order to protect from the coming global financial crisis.

eddiehobbs

In his most recent research report, ‘Outlook, May 2016’ he said that

“Not holding gold is now, in my opinion, high risk. Gold is the single asset class that protects both against deflation and especially against inflation. The case for gold against this backdrop has strengthened and not weakened.”

Below are the key excerpts from the excellent report regarding gold and silver:

OWN SOME GOLD

As a financial practice we have been recommending gold to our clients since 2005. Gold prices peaked to $1,900 an ounce before declining to the current trading range of between $1,000 and $1,300, i.e. approximately €1,100 at current prices.

The nominal value for gold, if there was a gold standard implemented, would be between $7,000 and $9,000 an ounce, it has been calculated.

This does not mean that gold could go to these prices, but what it does tell us is that it has the potential to go to these values in the event of a loss of confidence in global currencies, especially the US Dollar.

Gold is not an investment, but rather a hedge, and insurance against the potential for substantial falls in other parts of your balance sheet. As a general rule we recommend that between 5% and 10% of liquid assets are held in gold.

We had discontinued recommending clients holding gold from 2012 to 2016 and, once again, it forms the mainstay on all client recommendations for good reason: Gold should be considered a form of money, a The value of gold as against the Euro is outlined in the tables below: 2005 + 36.7% 2011 +14.2% 2006 + 10.6% 2012 + 4.9% 2007 + 18.4% 2013 – 31.2% 2008 + 10.5% 2014 +12.1% 2009 + 20.7% 2015 – 0.3% 2010 + 37.1%

We first started adding gold to client portfolio recommendations in 2005, when gold was about €300 per ounce, and stopped about three years ago. Gold, having spiked up to €1,370, is now hovering around €1,100 per ounce and once again looks like reasonable value set against the above backdrop risk.

SilverCoinsHeader (2)

HOLD SOME SILVER COINS

Holding a small amount of cash or gold and silver coins at home makes sense provided you’ve allowed for the security risks. This is on the basis that the existing banking system may be closed and that access to cash may be limited as it has been for periods in Greece and in Cyprus after their financial crisis. Although this was not a feature of the financial crisis in Ireland, it did come close to it.

In the event of a general loss of confidence in major currencies, especially the Dollar and secondarily the Euro, holding physical silver coins makes a lot of sense. Silver does not move in step with gold in the short term but in a severe deflationary event and a loss of confidence in paper currencies, having silver, which comes sat lower unit values to gold is attractive.

An ounce of gold by May 2016 is worth just over €1,100 ($1,270) while an equivalent weight in silver is €15 ($17). <See prices below>
Ends


Gold and Silver Prices and News
Gold holds gains; caution prevails after Fed rate talk (Reuters)
As Brexit, Trump Multiply Global Risks, Gold May Rally to $1,400 (Bloomberg)
Gold Gains on China Debt Concerns as Soros Stake Boosts Miners (Bloomberg)
Gold prices rise as dollar, U.S. stocks ease (Reuters)
China ICBC buys secret gold vault London (Business Insider)

Why Gold Is A Better Investment Than Apple (Forbes)
George Soros Is Making a Big New Bet on Gold (Fortune)
“They Are Scared To Death” – CEO On “Biggest Reason” Why People Buying Precious Metals (Zere Hedge)
‘Audit the Fed’ movement taking big step forward in Congress this week (CNBC)
Gold Demand Just Had Its Strongest-Ever First Quarter (Gold Seek)

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)
18 May: USD 1,270.90, EUR 1,127.21 and GBP 882.05 per ounce
17 May: USD 1,270.10, EUR 1,121.43 and GBP 877.50 per ounce
16 May: USD 1,281.00, EUR 1,132.04 and GBP 892.87 per ounce
13 May: USD 1,275.15, EUR 1,123.51 and GBP 885.16 per ounce
12 May: USD 1,268.30, EUR 1,111.30 and GBP 878.28 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)
18 May: USD 17.05, EUR 15.13 and GBP 11.77 per ounce
17 May: USD 17.08, EUR 15.09 and GBP 11.80 per ounce
16 May: USD 17.32, EUR 15.30 and GBP 12.07 per ounce
13 May: USD 17.09, EUR 15.06 and GBP 11.85 per ounce
12 May: USD 17.23, EUR 15.12 and GBP 11.91 per ounce

 

Protecting_Your_Savings_in_the_Coming_Bail_In_Era_-_Copy-3.jpg Storing_Gold_in_Switzerland 7_Key_Storage_Must_Haves.png

Read Our Most Popular Guides in Recent Months

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Diretor

END-

 

Doug Pollitt comments on gold’s continuing respect

(courtesy Doug Pollitt/GATA)

Doug Pollitt: Devaluing dollar and debt by revaluing gold is getting respectable

Section:

9:40a ET Wednesday, May 18, 2016

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

May’s market letter by Doug Pollitt of Pollitt & Co. in Toronto reflects on the growing respectability of devaluing the U.S. dollar and debt by the upward revaluation of gold. Devaluation of the dollar against gold in 1934 was, Pollitt writes, the most successful provision of President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal. Pollitt’s letter is headlined “Pimco Goes Full Goldbug” and he has kindly given GATA permission to share it with you in PDF format here:

http://www.gata.org/files/PollittMarketLetter-05-2016.pdf

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

 

end

 

GoldMoney launches a gold payroll and gold payout application for the BitGold business platform

(courtesy Business Wire/SF California/GATA))

 

 

GoldMoney launches gold payroll and gold payout applications for BitGold business platform

Section:

Company Announcement
via Business Wire, San Francisco, California
Wednesday, May 18, 2016

TORONTO — GoldMoney Inc., a financial technology company that operates a global, full-reserve, and gold-based financial services platform, is pleased to announce the launch of gold payroll and gold payout applications for the BitGold Business platform. The engineering and launch of the gold payout application completes another milestone in the build out of the BitGold B2B and B2C ecosystem.

The gold payout application is a free-enterprise software tool for BitGold Business accounts that allows clients to set up and automate recurring payments to anyone with an email address or mobile phone number. The payout application is designed to streamline international payroll, dividends, rebates, reward payments, partner and affiliate payouts, micro-payments, and more. Built on top of a global, closed-loop, and full-reserve account structure, the payout application allows for instant settlement of cross-border value transfers, which can also be automated to settle into any currency given the global nature of gold. …

… For the remainder of the announcement:

http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20160518005674/en/GoldMoney-Launch…

 

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Gold trading today:

Early this morning;

(courtesy zero hedge)

 

Gold Slammed To 3-Week Lows Under $1250 After Lacker Ramps Up Hawkish Tone

The weakness in precious metals – as the dollar soared – after yesterday’s Fed minutes has extended this morning as Fed’s Lacker unleashes even greater hawkish-ness. Gold is back at 3-week lows, back below $1250 with its biggest drop in 3 months…

 

Double-whammy…Gold’s biggest one-day drop in 3 months on very heavy volume

 

Now back at 3-week lows…

 

And higher-beta Silver is sliding fast…

 

Pushing Gold/Silver back to one-month highs…

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With we take the amount of gold held by Chinese banks  (at the end of 2015 equate to 2690 tonnes)  together with its official reserves of 1808 tonnes, the Chinese have really official reserves of:  4498 tonnes.  Presumably the banks have added considerably more gold in 2016 so real official reserves is 4500 tonnes+.  And this is not gold that they have hidden in other places:
(courtesy Lawrie Williams/Sharp’s Pixley/Lawrie on Gold)
LAWRIE WILLIAMS: China’s Govt controlled gold reserves already 4,500 tonnes plusMAY
18

I speculated her back in February in an article entitled China still building gold reserves, running down forex that holdings of gold by Chinese commercial banks perhaps could be considered as part of the nation’s total gold reserve. The banks are effectively state-owned and would thus likely be subject to their assets being utilised on behalf of the government if required. I hadn’t seen anyone else bring this particular theory up and assumed the idea had been ignored by analysts and other media, but earlier today at Bloomberg’s Precious Metals Forum in London, not only was there an estimate given of the total amount of gold held by the Chinese commercial banks (a very big number indeed), but also the agreement in a panel discussion between two top China gold experts that, in extremis, the Chinese government could take the banks’ gold reserves into its own gold hoard. This would put a different complexion on China’s known gold holdings available to the government, and also helps account for some of the huge anomalies between China’s assumed gold ‘consumption’ (by the jewelry, investment and industrial sectors) and the sum total of known mainland Chinese gold imports and its domestic production which is hugely higher.

To go back to the original article linked above I raised this particular anomaly thus: ‘…gold consultancy GFMS’s latest Quarterly update suggests that Chinese commercial banks, which are state-owned, had built up internal gold holdings of some 1,900 tonnes by the first half of 2015 (and this may well have expanded to around 2,000 tonnes by the year end given the strength of Shanghai Gold Exchange withdrawals which totalled 2,596 tonnes in 2015. This SGE withdrawals figure is hugely higher than the less than 1,000 tonnes GFMS rates as Chinese gold ‘consumption’, yet this gold has to be going somewhere and commercial bank vaults could well account for much of the difference. Could this be being held on behalf of the government?’ At the time known Chinese gold imports alone were running at around 1,400 tonnes or more and domestic gold production around 450 tonnes so the two figures combined left a huge gap between GFMS’s estimated consumption figure and known gold flows into China.

Back in February it appears that the figure quioted then may have significantly underestimated the amount of gold held by the Chinese commercial banks. At today’s Bloomberg event, Roland Wang, the World Gold Council’s Managing Director for China, put the gold holdings of the Chinese commercial banks at the end of 2015 at 2,690 tonnes – which will presumably have risen further during the first four months of the current year. China’s ‘official’ gold holdings as reported to the IMF, plus its own reported 9 tonne gold purchase in April stand currently at around 1,808 tonnes. If we add in the commercial bank numbers we come up with a combined total of just short of 4,500 tonnes, plus any accumulations by the commercial banks since the start of the year, which would put it comfortably in second place behind the USA with its 8,133.5 tonnes.

That the Chinese commercial bank gold holdings could be utilised in extremis by the Chinese government was alluded to in a discussion between Ken Hoffman and Hong Kong-based Philip Klapwijk. Ken is Bloomberg Intelligence’s Senior Metals and Mining Analyst who put forward this theory to Philip Klapwijk, Former Executive Chairman of GFMS before its takeover by Thomson Reuters, now Managing Director of Precious Metals Insights, who agreed that this was indeed a logical position. Both are experienced China watchers and will have a better perspective on this than most other analysts.

But China has also been ‘economic with the truth’ in the past in reporting the true levels of its reserves through holding some of its gold in non-reported separate accounts. It appears to be more transparent in its reporting nowadays but no-one, presumably apart from within the Chinese government, knows whether there are still unreported gold reserves. One suspects there are but putting a figure on them would be pure speculation.

So by using the commercial banks’ holdings – even without taking into accpount any surreptitious hidded reserves, it would seem that the Chinese government can already get its hands on close to 5,000 tonnes of physical gold assuming some additional intake by the commercial banks in the first four months of the current year.

As was also pointed out at the AMA/Sharps Pixley bulls and bears gold debate, also in London, two days earlier, China has been in the position of not only being the world’s biggest producer of gold, but at the same time is also by far the world’s biggest importer, which is almost certainly unique in the history of the global gold market when the world’s top producers have always exported most of their gold. This emphasises perhaps how important gold is in the Chinese psyche and in the firm belief by the government that building its gold reserves is diversification insurance against any potential deterioration over time in the value of the U.S. dollar and the feeling that a bigger gold reserve would enhance its positioning in the country’s aspirations for the yuan as a global reserve currency. This year sees the yuan becoming part of the IMF’s Special Drawing Right in October, and it is possible that China may now see its job as already partly done, which could account for what may be a cutback in its monthly gold reserve increases which it has been reporting since July 2015.

 

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Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight

 
 

:

1 Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/yuan WELL DOWN to 6.5465 ( DEVALUATION DEEPENS/CHINA FIRES SHOT ACROSS THE USA BOW ) / Shanghai bourse  CLOSED DOWN 0.608 OR 0.02%  / HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 132.08 OR 0.67%

2 Nikkei closed UP 1.97 OR 0.02% /USA: YEN FALLS TO 109.95

3. Europe stocks opened ALL IN THE RED  /USA dollar index UP to 95.26/Euro DOWN to 1.1204

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS   TO -.071%     !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 109.95

3c Nikkei now WELL BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI::  47.27  and Brent: 47.82

3f Gold DOWN  /Yen UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa.

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN for Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10 yr bund RISES to 0.197%   German bunds in negative yields from 8 years out

 Greece  sees its 2 year rate RISE to 9.41%/: 

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISE to  : 7.43%   (YIELD CURVE NOW DEEPLY INVERTED)

3k Gold at $1253.60/silver $16.63(7:45 am est) BROKE RESISTANCE AT 16.52 

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 32 in  roubles/dollar) 66.51-

3m oil into the 47 dollar handle for WTI and 47 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation  (already upon us). This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/China forced to do QE!! as it lowers its yuan value to the dollar/expect a huge devaluation imminently from POBC.

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.08 DESTROYING WHATEVER IS LEFT OF OUR YEN CARRY TRADERS

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9893 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1084 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN IN LAST LEG OF ITS CAMPAIGN AS TO WHETHER EXIT THE EU.

3r the 8 Year German bund now  in negative territory with the 10 year RISES to  + .197%

/German 8 year rate negative%!!!

3s The Greece ELA NOW a 71.4 billion euros,

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”.  Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.873% early this morning. Thirty year rate  at 2.67% /POLICY ERROR)

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)

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Global Stocks Slide, S&P Set To Open Red For The Year As Hawkish Fed Ignites “Risk Off”

After yesterday’s algo-driven mad dash to close the S&P green both for the day and for the year following Fed minutes that came in shocking hawkish, the selling has continued overnight, led by the commodity complex as rate hike fears have pushed oil back down some 2% from yesterday’s 7 month highs, which in turn has dragged global stocks lower to a six-week low, while pushing bond yields higher across developed nations as the market suddenly reprices the probability of a June/July rate hike.

For now the critical S&P500 support level at 2030 continues to hold, however that may be put in test today, leading to the next leg lower in the S&P. Should stocks open here, the S&P will be red for the year.

The dollar continued to rise overnight after its biggest jump in 6 months, which led to a substantial devaluation of the Chinese Yuen as a result, which in turn may have spooked the global markets who still remember that China was the primary catalyst that unleashed the wave of selling in December and January.

The hawkish Fed minutes pressed the MSCI All Country World Index which declined for a third day, and dropped to the lowest level since April 8. U.K. gilts and German bunds fell, after Treasuries posted their biggest losses of the year. Currencies in Australia, China and South Korea sank to two-month lows against the dollar, while crude oil retreated and copper fell toward levels last seen in February. Gold and silver slipped to this month’s lows.

Many were shocked by the Fed’s minutes which come from a meeting where Yellen was said to be fully dovish. “There is this enormous policy uncertainty,” said Randal Jenneke, Sydney-based fund manager at T. Rowe Price. “The Fed has changed the goal posts so many times, everyone is confused. No one knows when they’re going to raise rates and no one knows what’s going to be the key thing to trigger the decision.”

This is what the Fed calls successful communication. There will be more of it today.

Comments from Fed Vice-Chair Fischer and President Yellen will likely be crucial in terms of really hammering home expectations and we’ll hear from the former this afternoon. Fischer’s event is closed to media so it remains to be seen how much he’ll delve into policy outlook but we will also hear from Dudley this afternoon who’s views are closely aligned to those of Yellen so that could be worth watching out for. As a reminder Dudley last said about two weeks ago that two rate hikes this year was a ‘reasonable’ expectation.

According to Bloomberg calculations, Fed Funds futures show the odds of a move surged to 32 percent on Wednesday, after tripling to 12% from 4% in the prior session as data on inflation, housing starts and industrial production beat forecasts. Following months of expectation and fluctuations last year, including a selloff caused by China’s unexpected devaluation of the yuan, markets reacted calmly when the Fed finally raised rates in December for the first time since 2006, reflecting investor conviction in the U.S. recovery’s ability to withstand tighter monetary policy.

“The markets were getting a little too complacent for the scope for rate hikes this year and next year but the fed minutes were on the hawkish side yesterday so that made investors nervous,” said Allan von Mehren, chief analyst at Danske Bank told Bloomberg. “We see some repricing on bond yields and it’s also having a negative spill-over on equity markets.”

In other, otherwise very bullish news, Moody’s lowers US growth outlook to 2.0% from 2.3% and cuts G20 EM growth to 4.2% vs. Prey. 4.4%, sees China growth slowing gradually to around 6.3% this year. However this time not even a major growth forecast cut was enough to send stocks soaring.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped 0.8 percent, with BHP Billiton Ltd. and Rio Tinto Group leading miners lower as commodities retreated. The European equity gauge has gone a month without posting a daily gain of at least 1 percent, and is down 4.5 percent from its April 20 peak. Futures on the S&P 500 lost 0.3 percent, indicating equities will decline after Wednesday closing little changed. Investors will look Thursday to an index of leading indicators in the U.S. for signs of the economy’s strength. Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer and New York Fed chief William Dudley are scheduled to speak, while Wal-Mart Stores Inc. is among American companies reporting earnings.

Oil fell below $48 a barrel on Thursday, pressured by a stronger dollar and as a surprise increase in U.S. crude inventories served as a reminder that supply remains ample despite output problems. As Reuters recaps, supply losses in Canada and Nigeria have lent support, but cooler weather was expected to help firefighters battling Canadian wildfires. Traders said Exxon Mobil is boosting output at Nigeria’s largest crude stream.

“The main factor weighing on prices is the much appreciated U.S. dollar,” said Carsten Fritsch, analyst at Commerzbank. “What is more, rain forecast in the Canadian oil province of Alberta is giving rise to hopes that the devastating wildfires there could be brought under control.”

Elsehwere, Egyptian stocks slipped for the first time in four days, falling 2 percent. The government has deployed naval ships to search for an EgyptAir Airbus A320 en route to Cairo from Paris that went missing off the coast overnight.

Market Wrap

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 2035
  • Stoxx 600 down 0.8% to 335
  • FTSE 100 down 1.5% to 6075
  • DAX down 1.5% to 9797
  • S&P GSCI Index down 1.6% to 364
  • MSCI Asia Pacific down 0.9% to 125
  • Nikkei 225 up less than 0.1% to 16647
  • Hang Seng down 0.7% to 19694
  • Shanghai Composite down less than 0.1% to 2807
  • S&P/ASX 200 down 0.6% to 5323
  • US 10-yr yield up 1bp to 1.86%
  • German 10Yr yield up 2bps to 0.19%
  • Italian 10Yr yield up less than 1bp to 1.5%
  • Spanish 10Yr yield up 1bp to 1.61%
  • Dollar Index up 0.1% to 95.17
  • WTI Crude futures down 2% to $47.22
  • Brent Futures down 2.3% to $47.82
  • Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,254
  • Silver spot down 1.5% to $16.65

Top Global News

  • Stocks, Bonds, Commodities Slide as Fed Weighs June Rate Hike
  • Bayer Bids for $42 Billion Monsanto to Form Life Sciences Giant
  • Moody’s Cuts 2016 U.S. Growth Forecast, Cites Weak Global Demand
  • Technip to Combine With FMC Technologies in All-Share Deal
  • Theranos Corrects Tens of Thousands of Blood-Testing Results
  • Dollar Climbs to Seven-Week High as Templeton Backs Divergence
  • Trump Invested in Outsourcing Companies He Denounced in Campaign
  • Zuckerberg Acknowledges Trust Gap After Meeting on Bias
  • Apple, Not China, Is JPMorgan’s Biggest Risk for Taiwan Stocks

Looking at regional markets, Asia stocks traded mostly lower following a subdued lead from Wall Street where US equities pared gains following a hawkish FOMC minutes in which most Fed officials saw a June hike likely if the economy warranted. This initially set the tone across the region with the ASX 200 (-0.6%) dragged by basic materials and energy as a firmer USD post-FOMC minutes weighed on commodities. Nikkei 225 (flat) fluctuated between gains and losses as JPY weakness and strong machine orders provided some optimism in Japan, while Shanghai Comp (flat) outperformed for a bulk of the session after the PBoC continued to up liquidity injections and China continued its supportive sector adjustments. 10yr JGBs saw some spill-over selling, with demand subdued as BoJ refrained from conducting its bond purchase program, while further pressure was seen after the 20yr auction in which the b/c ratio declined from prior.

Top Asian News

  • Suzuki Says Improper Mileage Tests Used on 2.1 Million Cars: Testing didn’t follow protocol due to concerns about weather
  • Australia Adds More Jobs as Unemployment Rate Holds at 5.7%: Employment data comes in slightly under economist forecasts
  • Apple, Not China, Is JPMorgan’s Biggest Risk for Taiwan Stocks: Foreign investors pull $2.2 billion as Apple suppliers fall
  • BEA Union Cuts China Property Bond Exposure on Valuation Concern: Holdings in key fund 33 percent versus 55 percent last year
  • Two Chinese Fighters Intercept U.S. Plane Over South China Sea: Encounter in international airspace could further strain ties
  • Modi Set for Lone India State Win as Regional Parties Dominate: Modi’s BJP is ahead in Assam in 126-member state assembly
  • Vale Delivers Warning on Iron Ore After China Frenzy Fades Away: Watch out for bumpy road ahead as low-cost supply is set to pick up

European equities have slipped this morning following the fallout of the more hawkish than expected FOMC meeting minutes, having kept June as a live possibility to tighten monetary policy. Subsequently, FFR futures are now pricing in a 32% chance of a hike next month, as such financials outperform amid the prospect of higher borrowing costs for consumers. However, failed to offset the weakness across material names as they are hampered by the fall in commodity prices in reaction to the upside in the greenback. Additionally, notable weakness has been seen across airliners in the wake of reports of a missing EgyptAir flight, while Thomas Cooks underperforms in relation to other airliners after their CEO stated that FY underlying earnings is at the lower end of guidance. Despite the downside in equities European bonds have been pressured this morning amid the rise in yields, with Bunds yields bear steepening across the curve, which comes after the aforementioned hawkish FOMC minutes. Furthermore, desks are also attributing some of the price action to technical factors with downside limited by support holding around 163.00.

Top European News

  • European Stocks Slide as Fed Minutes Signal June Hike Possible: Stoxx Europe 600 Index lost 0.5 percent at 9:23 a.m. in London, with commodity producers declining the most
  • Bayer Eyes $42 Billion Monsanto in Quest for Seeds Dominance: bold attempt by Bayer to snatch the last independent global seeds producer and become the world’s biggest supplier of farm chemicals
  • Investec’s Full-Year Profit Rises 3% as Bank Lending Increases: Net income for the 12 months ended March 31 rose to 423 million pounds ($616 million) from 410 million pounds a year earlier

In FX, the Japanese yen has been modestly stronger overnight, with the USDJPY trading closely around 110, following a 1 percent slide in the last session when it hit 110.40 following the Fed minutes.  Australia’s dollar weakened as much as 0.5 percent, and the MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index fell 0.5 percent, taking its retreat in May to 3 percent. Indonesia’s rupiah and South Korea’s won led declines on Thursday, weakening at least 0.8 percent.

But the overnight highlight as previosly reported was China’s yuan which declined as much as 0.1 percent in Shanghai’s onshore market. It was more volatile in offshore trading, rebounding 0.3 percent after a 0.5 percent loss on Wednesday that marked its biggest decline since January. South Africa’s rand climbed 0.4 percent, paring this month’s slide to 10 percent, the worst performer among 31 major currencies worldwide. While the central bank will probably keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday, six of the 25 estimates from economist in a Bloomberg survey predict a quarter-point increase. The rest see the benchmark remaining at 7 percent.

In commodities, WTI dropped 2.2% to $47.15 a barrel, extending Wednesday’s retreat from a seven-month high. The dollar’s increase coupled with renewed concern over the global oil glut unsettled markets, with U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly rising by 1.3 million barrels last week, according to data issued on Wednesday. Rain in Canada may have also slowed fires that have shifted back toward the province of Alberta’s oil-sands operations. Copper, nickel and zinc fell by at least 0.8 percent in London. Gold slid to a three-week low on concern the Fed is moving closer to raising interest rates. Metal for immediate delivery fell as much as 0.5 percent to $1,252.42 an ounce.

 

Bulletin Headline Summary from Bloomberg and RanSquawk

  • European equities follow suit from the fallout of the hawkish FOMC minutes release, with Bunds also softer despite capping losses after finding support at 163.00
  • GBP has been another source of focus for FX markets in the wake of upbeat UK retail sales while USD remains firmer against its major counterparts
  • Looking ahead, highlights include ECB Minutes, Initial Jobless Claims, Fed’s Fischer (Voter, Neutral), Dudley (Voter, Soft Dove) and BoE’s Vlieghe (Dove)
  • Treasuries fall during overnight trading, with global equities dropping to six-week low and commodities lower against a stronger U.S. dollar as the world braces for the possibility that the Fed may raise rates in June.
  • An EgyptAir Airbus A320 en route from Paris to Cairo with 66 people on board went missing over the Mediterranean Sea in cloudless stable weather, raising concerns of a crash caused by a deliberate act or mechanical failure
  • Federal Reserve officials want to raise interest rates in June. Now, it is up to the U.S. economy to confirm their view that slow growth in the first quarter was temporary;
  • Moody’s Investors Service lowered its growth forecast for the U.S. economy this year to 2 percent from 2.3 percent to account for a weak first quarter, while anticipating underlying resilience through 2017
  • Is the link between monetary policy and inflation broken? The central bank governor of Denmark, where nominal rates have been negative longer than anywhere else in the world, says there may be signs that the link has grown weaker
  • The BOJ must drastically lower its presence in the nation’s stock market if it wants to preserve the ability to one day unwind its massive position, according to the Democratic Party’s Tsutomu Okubo, a former vice finance minister
  • Given the uncertainty of Brexit’s potential impact, a vote to leave is a risk. The question is: Is the risk worth taking?
  • Euro-area officials are weighing a proposal to purchase loans that member states made to Greece in a move that would ease the nation’s debt burden, a precondition for the International Monetary Fund’s involvement in a bailout program
  • Quiet trading floors are set to depress global investment banks’ second-quarter revenue 24 percent, with the underwriting and equities businesses facing the biggest drops, according to analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co
  • Sovereign 10Y yields lower; Asian, European equities mostly lower; U.S. equity-index futures lower; WTI crude oil, precious metals fall

 

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Before we move onto a hawkish Fed and a continuation of the sudden and sharp re-pricing of interest rate risk, this morning we have published the fifth edition of DB’s annual survey of global prices of goods and services which my team has now taken over. This year we have added a number of extra European cities. In adding these it confirms that Europe is an expensive place to buy things. Indeed Swiss and Nordic/Scandinavian cities are generally the most expensive in the world. Sydney and London also require a bulging wallet. EM countries remain the cheapest places overall though and the gap between DM and EM prices has mostly widened over the past 4 years helped by the latter’s currency and economic weakness.

Our weekend getaway index neatly reflects the general cost of living around the world. Zurich leads the way, followed by Sydney, London, Milan, Stockholm, Copenhagen, NYC, San Francisco, Amsterdam and Madrid. Our cheap date index sees Zurich, Copenhagen, Tokyo, Stockholm and Amsterdam as the most expensive cities to woo a partner. At the other end of the scale, cities in Malaysia, India and South Africa are the cheapest for a weekend away and around a third of the cost of the most expensive places. For those wanting a real cheap ‘cheap date’, India, Indonesia, the Philippines and South Africa are the places to go. Indeed in all of these places you can have at least 4 dates for the price of one in Zurich but please don’t tell the other 3 people! Indeed if someone asks you out on a date in Zurich please clarify who is paying before accepting.

Elsewhere we look at the price of numerous goods and services across the world including iPhones, jeans, trainers, cars, Coke, meals out, cinema tickets, taxis, public transport, beers, cigs, gym membership, a haircut, the economist and the price of attending business school. Is your country cheap or expensive in these areas? See the report published in the last hour to find out.

So the merry dance starts. The Fed minutes last night highlight a committee that continues to want to raise rates whenever they can push it through. However what normally happens after such hawkishness in the current environment is either the data doesn’t ever quite get there for them to pull the trigger or the global market takes fright by enough for them to have to postpone their plan. I’m not sure this time is any different but clearly you can try to trade the volatility between the two points. Indeed the probability of a June hike has moved from 4% on Monday to 32% after last night’s minutes. Contracts further out in the year have also seen a reasonable re-pricing. The probability of a July move is now up to 47% from 28% just prior to the minutes and 19% on Monday, while a move by December has gone from 56% at the start of the week to 65% on Tuesday and to 75% post minutes.

Fixed income markets were the big mover yesterday. Looking at Treasuries the 2y yield was up another 6bps yesterday to 0.894% which is the highest yield since mid-March. In fact yields at the short-end of the curve are up an impressive 15bps since the close last Friday. The 10y yield yesterday was actually up 8bps by the end of play at 1.855% and approaching the top end of the recent range. FX markets were also particularly active and unsurprisingly it was a relatively strong day for the US Dollar with the Dollar index up +0.56% with EM currencies hit hardest across the board.

In terms of the important stuff, much of the focus was on the line concerning that ‘most participants judged that if incoming data were consistent with economic growth picking up in the second quarter, labour market conditions continuing to strengthen, and inflation making progress towards the Committee’s 2 percent objective, then it likely would be appropriate for the Committee to increase the target range for the federal funds rate in June’. That said there was a bit of balance in that comment with the sentence that ‘participants expressed a range of views about the likelihood that incoming information would make it appropriate to adjust the stance of policy at the time of the next meeting’ with some officials expressing confidence that the incoming data would be sufficient enough to make a June increase appropriate, but offset by ‘several participants’ who seemed more concerned that the data would not provide ‘sufficiently clear signals’ to determine if a move next month is warranted. Some also cited concern about the low implied pricing in futures markets, while it was noted that participants viewed downside risks from abroad as having reduced, but that close monitoring is still warranted’.

So it’s over to the data now and the continued flow of Fedspeak. As we highlighted yesterday comments from Fed Vice-Chair Fischer and President Yellen will likely be crucial in terms of really hammering home expectations and we’ll hear from the former this afternoon. Fischer’s event is closed to media so it remains to be seen how much he’ll delve into policy outlook but we will also hear from Dudley this afternoon who’s views are closely aligned to those of Yellen so that could be worth watching out for. As a reminder Dudley last said about two weeks ago that two rate hikes this year was a ‘reasonable’ expectation.

Refreshing our screens this morning, aside from China the vast majority of bourses in Asia are in the red this morning. There are modest losses for the Nikkei (-0.05%) and Hang Seng (-0.24%), although the Kospi (-0.54%) and ASX (-0.70%) are down a bit more. China is the outlier again with the Shanghai Comp currently +0.58% with Bloomberg reporting that steelmakers in particular have surged following the news that President Xi is to push ahead with plans to reduce overcapacity at SOE’s and so support commodity prices. US equity index futures are modestly lower this morning, while the US Dollar has continued to gain.
Recapping the rest of the moves in markets yesterday. US equities were initially putting in a relatively strong performance leading into the minutes with the S&P 500 up as much as +0.6%. That quickly changed once the text was released however with the index actually plummeting to a -0.6% loss before paring that move to finish pretty much unchanged (+0.02%) by the end of play as a strong session for banks helped to offset weakness for utility and telecom names. The commodity complex was also hit hard with WTI creeping back below $48/bbl this morning (down about 2.5% from just prior to the minutes) after being weighed down by those US Dollar gains, while in the metals space it was precious metals which declined the sharpest. Gold, Silver and Platinum ended -1.60%, -1.99% and -2.45% respectively.

Moves for European equities look a bit outdated now although we did see bourses finally break out with the Stoxx 600 closing +0.85% with Banks gaining on the prior day’s Fedspeak. Meanwhile there was some data released in Europe yesterday to mention. There were no changes in the final revisions to Euro area CPI in April with the monthly headline reading of 0.0% mom meaning the YoY rate was confirmed at -0.2% and down two-tenths from March. The core print was also confirmed +0.7% yoy which is down three tenths and is the lowest print in 12 months. The other data was out of the UK yesterday with the release of the latest employment report. The ILO unemployment rate was unchanged in March as expected at 5.1%. Employment was reported as rising 44k in the first quarter compared with the three months to December which was better than expected, although surprisingly average weekly earnings ex bonuses did slow to 2.1% yoy from 2.2% after consensus had been for modest growth.

Looking over today’s calendar, this morning we’re kicking off in Europe where shortly after this goes to print the Q1 employment figures from France are released. Following that later this morning will be April retail sales data out of the UK which is expected to rebound. That comes before the ECB minutes which are due to be released around lunchtime. Over in the US this afternoon the Philly Fed’s manufacturing survey will be closely watched especially considering the weakness in the NY Fed survey earlier this week. We’ll also get the latest initial jobless claims numbers which are expected to come back down again following the big spike higher in the last reading, while the Conference Board’s leading index for April rounds off the data. As mentioned earlier, Fedspeak wise we will hear from Vice-President Fischer who is due to speak at 2.15pm BST, while Dudley (at 3.30pm BST) is also scheduled for comments today.

 

end

ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late  WEDNESDAY night/ THURSDAY morning: Shanghai closed DOWN  BY 0.608 PTS OR 0.02%  /  Hang Sang closed DOWN 132.08 OR 0.67%. The Nikkei closed UP 1.97 POINTS OR 0.01% . Australia’s all ordinaires  CLOSED DOWN 0.61% Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.5465 as China fired another HUGE shot across the bow telling the USA not to raise rates (SEE STORY BELOW).  Oil FELL to 47.32 dollars per barrel for WTI and 47.82 for Brent. Stocks in Europe  ALL IN THE RED . Offshore yuan trades  6.5663 yuan to the dollar vs 6.5465 for onshore yuan.THE SPREAD BETWEEN ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE WIDENS.

FIRST  REPORT ON JAPAN  SOUTH KOREA AND CHINA

a) JAPAN ISSUES

NONE TODAY

b) CHINA ISSUES

As promised, the POBC has sent a message to the Fed tonight concerning their “likely” raising their interest rate in June:  the second largest devaluation since August:6.56557

 

Time:  10 pm est:

 

USDCNY Spot Exchange Rate

USDCNY:CUR  onshore
6.5420
CNY
0.0034
0.05%
As of 10:07 PM EDT 5/18/2016
USA/CNH

USD/CNH SPOT EXCHANGE RATE

U.S. Dollar/Chinese Yuan
6.56776
-0.00683
(-0.10%)
CHINA’S MESSAGE TO THE USA IS SIMPLE:  EITHER ABANDON THOUGHTS OF A RATE INCREASE AND LET CHINA REFLATE OUR ELSE CHINA WILL DEVALUE HUGELY BRINGING MASSIVE TURMOIL TO ALL MARKETS;  CHECK TO JANET YELLEN!!1
(courtesy zero hedge)

China Sends Hawkish Fed A Message – Devalues Yuan Near 2016 Lows

Just as we warned was probable, The PBOC sent a message loud and clear to the newly hawkish Fed following today’s surge in the dollar after the minutes were released. With the 2nd biggest daily devaluation since the August collapse, China pushed the Yuan fix against the USD down to its lowest since early February – barely above the January lows. As we warned earlier, the China-Panic trade looms loud now as turmoil appears all that is left to stop The Fed unleashing another round of liquidity-sucking rate hikes sooner than the market wants.

All eyes have been firmly focus on the Yuan’s move against the USD but in fact the Yuan has been falling non-stop against the world’s major currencies…

The critical issue now is that the U.S. dollar is appreciating again. The
Bloomberg Dollar index is up 2.8% in the last two weeks and another 2%
wouldn’t be an unreasonable consolidation in the context of it dropping
more than 7% in the previous three months.

 

That previous dollar slide distracted from the fact that yuan depreciation never abated. Against the basket, it’s been weakening at an average rate of almost 1.2% per month for the last five months.

 

 

The market’s single-minded focus on USD/CNY is crucial and it’s also why disaster can still be averted. It will require the PBOC to temporarily suspend their yuan-weakening policy for as long as the dollar is climbing.

 

Otherwise, prepare to batten down the hatches for the coming storm.

It appears that it is the USD’s turn to face The PBOC once again… The 2nd biggest daily devaluation of the Yuan fix against the USD since August’s collapse.

 

Simply put, China does not want The Fed sucking the liquidity lifeline out of world markets right as it embarks on another round of desperate credit reflation.

Given The Fed’s comments today, the only excuse left for Yellen and her friends (unless they are willing to lose all credibility due to short-term fluctuations in macro-economic data from now to June meeting – as opposed to their mandated long-term view) is if markets turmoil enough to warrant some level of conservatism. As we have warned before – bullish stock market investors should be careful what they wish for – the higher stocks go, the higher the chances of rate hike, and the more likely China pre-taliates with some turmoil-inducing events to stall the unwind… the last time traders panicced about China, bad things happened to stocks…

END

 

After annoying the Russians by flying very close to their territory, the USA decided it was high time to annoy the Chinese:

 

 

(courtesy zero hedge)

 

Chinese Fighter Jets Fly Within 50 Feet Of US Spy Plane Near China

Having relentless provoked Russia over the past month, when week after week the Pentagon expressed its shock and dismay that Russians dare to scramble fighter jets when US missile cruisers or reconnaissance planes fly next to, or above, Russian territory the US has decided to pick on another target: China.

It started one month ago when first a Russian Su-24 “buzzed” the US missile destroyer USS Donald Cook in the Baltic Sea allegedly over Russian territorial waters; then just days later another Russian fighter jet flew within 50 feet of a US recon plane also flying over the Baltic Sea; this was followed by a third close encounter when a little over a week later a Russian Mig-31s flew within 50 feet of a US spy plane flying over a Russian naval base in the Kamchatka peninsula; the fourth provocation took place just days later when as a Russian SU-27 conducted a barrel roll over a U.S. Air Force RC-135 reconnaissance plane flying over the Baltic sea.

This series of Top Gun-like, if very dangerous (on purpose) stunts culminated this past Mondaywhen yet another US spy plane once again brushed against the Russian border, promptly leading to another, understandably, angry Russian response.

So after five such encounters between US and Russian armed forces, all of which ‘oddly’ took place in the immediate vicinity of Russia and not, say, above the Gulf of Mexico or next to California, the US has moved on to provoking another even bigger and more dangerous cold war foe, China.

According to NBC two Chinese military aircraft intercepted a U.S. military reconnaissance plane over the South China Sea Tuesday.

This test of China’s response did not come out of nowhere.

Recall that one week ago the US sailed the USS William P Lawrence within 12 miles of the contested and China-occupied manmade island of Fiery Cross Reef in the South China Sea in what the US Navy dubbed a “freedom of navigation” operation. China was not impressed and promptly scrambled two fighter jets to the U.S. navy ship, a patrol China denounced as an illegal threat to peace. China’s Defense Ministry said that in addition to the two fighters, an additional three warships shadowed the U.S. ship, telling it to leave.

China’s foreign ministry immediately expressed anger, and spokesman Lu Kang told a daily news briefing the ship illegally entered the waters without China’s permission and that the move threatened peace and stability. “This action by the U.S. side threatened China’s sovereignty and security interests, endangered the staff and facilities on the reef, and damaged regional peace and stability,” he told a news briefing.

But if Lu was angry then, he will be livid now after what Defense Department spokesperson Lt. Col. Michelle Baldanza said was a U.S. maritime patrol reconnaissance aircraft was flying in a “routine patrol” in international airspace on May 17 when “two tactical aircraft from the People’s Republic of China” intercepted the U.S. plane. The two Chinese fighter jets were J-11s and flew approximately 50 feet from the U.S. aircraft.


Stock footage of a Chinese J-11 fighter.

It’s odd how US aircraft supposedly flying in “international airspace” and clearly minding their business, if just as obviously spying either on Russia or China, always end up getting intercepted… almost as if the flight path is not quite what the official narrative says it is in the post-encounter briefing.

Naturally, the Pentagon immediately spun this latest situation in the way it has constantly done in its recent close encounters with Russia – that it was China’s fault the US was flying its spy planes near China’s border and that China dared to retaliate.

“Over the past year, DoD has seen improvements in PRC actions, flying in a safe and professional manner” Baldanza said in a written statement, adding that iInitial reports characterized the incident as unsafe.”

We wonder whose fault that is.

The incident is under investigation by U.S. Pacific Command. The U.S. said it has photos but they are classified.

We hope that once the US is done with its “investigation” it will notice the peculiar pattern where US spy planes and ships located by or above the territories of either Russia or China end up resulting in dangerously close encounters, usually involving either barrel rolls or “50 foot” fly-bys. At that point we can only hope that the US will also figure out who the recurring culprit in all these situations is.

end
China is furious with the USA over the 522% duty on steel.  It is probably China’s falt for increasing its capacity so much to produce that steel.  It now has huge excesses and as countries seek protectionism, that inventory will stay stationary inside China:
(courtesy zero hedge)

China Furious After US Launches Trade War “Nuke” With 522% Duty

Now that China’s brief infatuation with “rationalizing” excess capacity in its massively glutted (and insolvent) steel sector is over after lasting all of 2-3 months, China is back to doing what it did in late 2015 (and what it has always done) when as we reported, a surge in Chinese exports led to the first salvos in the trade war between China – the world’s biggest exporter of various steel products and is responsible for half the entire world’s steel output – and countries who are importing dumped Chinese products at the expense of their own steel and mining industries.

Nowhere has this trade tension been more obvious than in the UK, where in recent months angry, protesting steel workers have been demanding rising protectionist steps against a country they, rightfully, see as unleashing a global commodity deflation driven by out of control, and unprofitable by highly subsidized, production by Chinese steel mills.

The US was not left unscathed: we reported in December that “The Trade Wars Begin: U.S. Imposes 256% Tariff On Chinese Steel Imports” and since then things have progressively turned worse, finally culminating overnight with an outburst of anger from Chinese officials who, after attempting to flood not just the US but also the entire world with their commodity in general and steel in particular, exports…

 

… Pushing prices even lower…

 

….  have criticized U.S. anti-dumping penalties imposed on Chinese steel amid mounting complaints Beijing is exporting at improperly low prices to clear a backlog at home.

The numbers, however, do not lie and confirm that China is engaging in massive global commodity dumping.

Chinese exports hit a record 112 million tonnes last year, with rivals claiming that Chinese steelmakers have been undercutting them in their home markets. According to Reuters, in the four months to April, China’s steel exports have risen nearly 7.6% to 36.9 million tonnes.

In some regard, China has reason to be angry: the US unleashed what is nothing short of a nuclear bomb in its rapidly escalating trade war with China, and recently imposed duties of 522% on cold-rolled steel used in automobiles and other manufacturing,  In doing so it has rendered Chinese exports to the US unsustainable and will force even more excess Chinese production to remain landlocked within China’s borders, making the domestic glut, and price collapse, that much worse.


An employee talks on his mobile phone near stacks of rebar at

Shanxi Zhongsheng Iron and Steel in Fenyang, Shanxi Province

On the other hand, the only reason the US is forced to unveil such unprecedented protectionist measures (we wonder how the “impartial” WTO will argue that US trade practices are fair) is because of China’s own capital misallocation which, however, unlike in the US where the capital markets are a perpetual store of newly printed money, in China those $30 trillion in deposits ultimately end up allocated toward fixed investment. The result is the current historic plunge in Chinese commodity prices (now that the recent bubble has burst) and the unleashing of even more exported, quite literally, deflation.

Sure enough, as AP reports, Beijing faces mounting criticism from the United States and Europe over a flood of low-cost steel that Western governments complain hurts their producers and threatens thousands of jobs.

The Chinese government is trying to shrink bloated industries including steel, coal, cement, aluminum and solar panel manufacturing in which supplies exceed demand. That has led to price-cutting wars that are driving producers into bankruptcy. It is also leading to mass layoffs, and is why in recent months the government decided to, far less publicly, stop shrinking its bloated industries and revert to the old and broken model, one which lead to the export surge in the first place.

The result has been immediate: the latest U.S. duties include 266% for anti-dumping and 256% to offset what investigators concluded were improper subsidies, for a grand total of over 500%!

As noted previously, China is furious. The Commerce Ministry complained regulators engaged in “unfair practices” and improperly hampered the ability of Chinese companies to defend themselves but gave no details.

“There’s too much trade friction and it’s not good for the market,” Liu Zhenjiang, secretary general of the China Iron and Steel Association told Reuters when asked if China will appeal U.S. anti-dumping duties at the World Trade Organization. While a flood of cheap Chinese steel has been blamed for putting some overseas producers out of business, China has denied its mills have been dumping their products  on foreign markets, stressing that local steelmakers are more efficient and enjoy far lower costs than their international counterparts.

“High taxes are unfair …. China doesn’t have a large market share in the United States,” Zhang Dianbo, deputy general manager at Baosteel Group, said recently during a Singapore conference. Mr. Dianbo may be interested to know that creating $1 trillion in new loans in the first quarter as China did, is also to some, “unfair” as all that money goes to subsidize insolvent industries, and results in the export glut that is the heart of the problem.

To be sure, China at least tangentially acknowledged that it was the cause of the problem: a surge in Chinese steel prices helped restart once-shut mills, and might slow Beijing’s bid to address excess capacity, said Baosteel’s Zhang. “The price rebound is not beneficial to the overcapacity situation…. It will delay the shutdown of (inefficient) capacity,” he said.

Steel prices have come off around a quarter since their April peaks and could weaken further in the second half of the year, but Zhang said they were unlikely to return to recent lows.

We disagree, and so do US steel producers who are relying on Washington to do everything in its power to prevent a price collapse.

Washington was responding to a 2015 complaint by five steel producers that said they have been forced to lay off thousands of employees due to unfair foreign competition. One of the producers, United States Steel Corp., filed a separate complaint last month accusing the biggest Chinese steel producers of conspiring to fix prices, stealing trade secrets and skirting duties on imports in the U.S. with false labeling.

Life for China’s exporters is only going to get more difficult: the European Union launched its own investigation of Chinese steel exports last week following protests by steelworkers. In Britain, Tata Steel cited low-cost Chinese competition when it announced plans last month to sell money-losing operations that employ 20,000 people.

And just to assure that this is nowhere near the end of the ongoing trade wars, China pushed back against its trading partners in April, announcing anti-dumping duties on steel from the European Union, Japan and South Korea.

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EUROPEAN ISSUES

Looks like the EU-Turkey migrant deal is falling apart as EU has second thoughts on granted 80,000 visa entry to Turkish citizens.  The threat of unwanted people entering Europe is weighing in on the issue

(courtesy Soeren Kern/Gatestone Institute)

 

EU-Turkey Migrant Deal Unravels Turning Greece Into Massive Refugee Camp

Submitted by Soeren Kern via The Gatestone Institute,

  • “It can be expected that, as soon as Turkish citizens will obtain visa-free entry to the EU, foreign nationals will start trying to obtain Turkish passports … or use the identities of Turkish citizens, or to obtain by fraud the Turkish citizenship. This possibility may attract not only irregular migrants, but also criminals or terrorists.” — Leaked European Commission report, quoted in the Telegraph, May 17, 2016.
  • According to the Telegraph, the EU report adds that as a result of the deal, the Turkish mafia, which traffics vast volumes of drugs, sex slaves, illegal firearms and refugees into Europe, may undergo “direct territorial expansion towards the EU.”
  • “If they make the wrong decision, we will send the refugees.” — Burhan Kuzu, senior adviser to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
  • Erdogan is now demanding that the EU immediately hand over three billion euros ($3.4 billion) so that Turkish authorities can spend it as they see fit. The EU insists that the funds be transferred through international aid agencies in accordance with strict rules on how the aid can be spent. This prompted Erdogan to accuse the EU of “mocking the dignity” of the Turkish nation.

The EU-Turkey migrant deal, designed to halt the flow of migrants from Turkey to Greece, is falling apart just two months after it was reached. European officials are now looking for a back-up plan.

The March 18 deal was negotiated in great haste by European leaders desperate to gain control over a migration crisis in which more than one million migrants from Africa, Asia and the Middle East poured into Europe in 2015.

European officials, who appear to have promised Turkey more than they can deliver, are increasingly divided over a crucial part of their end of the bargain: granting visa-free travel to Europe for Turkey’s 78 million citizens by the end of June.

At the same time, Turkey is digging in its heels, refusing to implement a key part of its end of the deal: bringing its anti-terrorism laws into line with EU standards so that they cannot be used to detain journalists and academics critical of the government.

A central turning point in the EU-Turkey deal was the May 5 resignation of Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, who lost a long-running power struggle with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Davutoglu was a key architect of the EU-Turkey deal and was also considered its guarantor.

On May 6, just one day after Davutoglu’s resignation, Erdogan warned European leaders that Turkey would not be narrowing its definition of terrorism: “When Turkey is under attack from terrorist organizations and the powers that support them directly, or indirectly, the EU is telling us to change the law on terrorism,” Erdogan said in Istanbul. “They say ‘I am going to abolish visas and this is the condition.’ I am sorry, we are going our way and you go yours.”

Erdogan insists that Turkey’s anti-terrorism laws are needed to fight Kurdish militants at home and Islamic State jihadists in neighboring Syria and Iraq. Human rights groups counter that Erdogan is becoming increasingly authoritarian and is using the legislation indiscriminately to silence dissent of him and his government.

European officials say that, according to the original deal, visa liberalization for Turkish citizens is conditioned on Turkey amending its anti-terror laws. Erdogan warns that if there is no visa-free travel by the end of June, he will reopen the migration floodgates on July 1. Such a move would allow potentially millions more migrants to pour into Greece.

European officials are now discussing a Plan B. On May 8, the German newspaper Bildreported on a confidential plan to house all migrants arriving from Turkey on Greek islands in the Aegean Sea. Public transportation to and from those islands to the Greek mainland would be cut off in order to prevent migrants from moving into other parts of the European Union.

Migrants would remain on the islands permanently while their asylum applications are being processed. Those whose asylum requests are denied would be deported back to their countries of origin or third countries deemed as “safe.”

The plan, which Bild reports is being discussed at the highest echelons of European power, would effectively turn parts of Greece into massive refugee camps for many years to come. It remains unclear whether Greek leaders will have any say in the matter. It is also unclear how Plan B would reduce the number of migrants flowing into Europe.


Thousands of newly arrived migrants, the vast majority of whom are men, crowd the platforms at Vienna West Railway Station on August 15, 2015 — a common scene in the summer and fall of 2015. (Image source: Bwag/Wikimedia Commons)

Speaking to the BBC News program, “World on the Move,” on May 16, Sir Richard Dearlove, the former head of the British intelligence service MI6, warned that the number of migrants coming to Europe during the next five years could run into millions. This, he said, would reshape the continent’s geopolitical landscape: “If Europe cannot act together to persuade a significant majority of its citizens that it can gain control of its migratory crisis then the EU will find itself at the mercy of a populist uprising, which is already stirring.”

Dearlove also warned against allowing millions of Turks visa-free access to the EU, describing the EU plan as “perverse, like storing gasoline next to the fire we’re trying to extinguish.”

On May 17, the Telegraphpublished the details of a leaked report from the European Commission, the powerful administrative arm of the European Union. The report warns that opening Europe’s borders to 78 million Turks would increase the risk of terrorist attacks in the European Union. The report states:

“It can be expected that, as soon as Turkish citizens will obtain visa-free entry to the EU, foreign nationals will start trying to obtain Turkish passports in order to pretend to be Turkish citizens and enter the EU visa free, or use the identities of Turkish citizens, or to obtain by fraud the Turkish citizenship. This possibility may attract not only irregular migrants, but also criminals or terrorists.”

According to the Telegraph, the report adds that as a result of the deal, the Turkish mafia, which traffics vast volumes of drugs, sex slaves, illegal firearms and refugees into Europe, may undergo “direct territorial expansion towards the EU.” The report warns: “Suspect individuals being allowed to travel to the Schengen territory without the need to go through a visa request procedure would have a greater ability to enter the EU without being noticed.”

While the EU privately admits that the visa waiver would increase the risk to European security, in public the EU has recommended that the deal be approved.

On May 4, the European Commission announced that Turkey has met most of the 72 “benchmarks of the roadmap” needed to qualify for the visa waiver. The remaining five conditions concern the fight against corruption, judicial cooperation with EU member states, deeper ties with the European law-enforcement agency Europol, data protection and anti-terrorism legislation.

European Commission Vice President Frans Timmermans said:

“Turkey has made impressive progress, particularly in recent weeks, on meeting the benchmarks of its visa liberalization roadmap…. This is why we are putting a proposal on the table which opens the way for the European Parliament and the Member States to decide to lift visa requirements, once the benchmarks have been met.”

In order for the visa waiver to take effect, it must be approved by the national parliaments of the EU member states, as well as the European Parliament.

Ahead of a May 18 debate at the European Parliament in Strasbourg over Turkey’s progress in fulfilling requirements for visa liberalization, Burhan Kuzu, a senior adviser to Erdogan, warned the European Parliament that it had an “important choice” to make.

In a Twitter message, Kuzu wrote: “If they make the wrong decision, we will send the refugees.” In a subsequent telephone interview with Bloomberg, he added: “If Turkey’s doors are opened, Europe would be miserable.”

Meanwhile, Erdogan has placed yet another obstacle in the way of EU-Turkey deal. He is now demanding that the EU immediately hand over three billion euros ($3.4 billion) promised under the deal so that Turkish authorities can spend it as they see fit.

The EU insists that the funds be transferred through the United Nations and other international aid agencies in accordance with strict rules on how the aid can be spent. That stance has prompted Erdogan to accuse the EU of “mocking the dignity” of the Turkish nation.

On May 10, Erdogan expressed anger at the glacial pace of the EU bureaucracy:

“This country [Turkey] is looking after three million refugees. What did they [the EU] say? We’ll give you €3 billion. Well, have they given us any of that money until now? No. They’re still stroking the ball around midfield. If you’re going to give it, just give it.

 

“These [EU] administrators come here, tour our [refugee] camps, then ask at the same time for more projects. Are you kidding us? What projects? We have 25 camps running. You’ve seen them. There is no such thing as a project. We’ve implemented them.”

In an interview with the Financial Times, Fuat Oktay, head of Turkey’s Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD), the agency responsible for coordinating the country’s refugee response, accused European officials of being fixated on “bureaucracies, rules and procedures” and urged the European Commission to find a way around them.

The European Commission insists that it was made clear from the outset that most of the money must go to aid organizations: “Funding under the Facility for Refugees in Turkey supports refugees in the country. It is funding for refugees and not funding for Turkey.”

The migration crisis appears to be having political repercussions for German Chancellor Angela Merkel, a leading proponent of the EU-Turkey deal. According to a new poll published by the German newsmagazine Cicero on May 10, two-thirds (64%) of Germans oppose a fourth term for Merkel, whose term ends in the fall of 2017.

In an interview with Welt am Sonntag, Horst Seehofer, the leader of the Christian Social Union (CSU), the Bavarian sister-party to Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU), blamed Merkel for enabling Erdogan’s blackmail: “I am not against talks with Turkey. But I think it is dangerous to be dependent upon Ankara.”

Sahra Wagenknecht of the Left Party accused Merkel of negotiating the EU-Turkey deal without involving her European partners: “The chancellor is responsible for Europe having become vulnerable to blackmail by the authoritarian Turkish regime.”

Cem Özdemir, leader of the Greens Party and the son of Turkish immigrants said: “The EU-Turkey deal has made Europe subject to Turkish blackmail. The chancellor bears significant responsibility for this state of affairs.”

end
Why Tim Price is voting to leave the EU:
I also urge you to watch the BREXIT movie
(courtesy Tim Price/SovereignMan.com)

Tim Price: Why I’m Voting To Leave The European Union

Submitted by Tim Price via SovereignMan.com,

On 23 June 2016, this British citizen will be voting to leave the European Union.

To me it’s clear: the EU has not only become too big for its own good, it’s too big to do hardly anything good.

Back in 1975 when the UK first confirmed membership in the EU (when it was called the European Economic Community), it made sense.

Britain has always thrived on international trade, and the EU promised more trade.

But that’s not what happened. The EU didn’t turn into a peaceful, efficient, multi-national trading bloc that enables commerce and prosperity.

Rather it has become an ever-expanding, unaccountable bureaucracy ruling over vastly disparate nations who are increasingly at odds with one another.

And it is precisely the size of this Leviathan that’s the problem… something that was first identified several decades ago by economist Leopold Kohr.

Kohr was an Austrian Jew who only narrowly escaped Hitler’s Germany just before the outbreak of the Second World War.

He had been born in Oberndorf in central Austria, a village of just 2,000 or so.

And Oberndorf’s tiny size came to play a crucial role in Kohr’s thinking about the wealth of nations.

Kohr’s premise was simple: when you get too big, you start having serious problems.

This applies to political unions, from the Roman Empire to the EU, as well as to companies.

Even Warren Buffett has warned that large companies will eventually find it difficult to grow.

Kohr graduated in 1928 and went off to study at the London School of Economics with the likes of fellow Austrian Friedrich von Hayek.

In September 1941, Kohr began writing what would become his masterwork, ‘The Breakdown of Nations’.

He wrote that instead of expanding, Europe should be shrinking back into small political regions (like Switzerland) with a commitment to private property rights and local democracy.

“We have ridiculed the many little states,” wrote Kohr sadly, “now we are terrorised by their few successors.”

Simply put, size creates unavoidable limits… and problems.

And as the European Union has grown ever larger, it smashes horribly into Kohr’s thesis.

We can see this with the spate of problems in Europe ranging from horrific youth unemployment to major border crises to negative interest rates across the continent.

Of all the world’s population centers, Europe is the slowest growing (i.e. most rapidly shrinking) in the world.

The promises of growth and prosperity proved hollow. Yet the Eurocrats want to give Europeans even more: more regulation, more negative interest rates, more size.

Perhaps ECB Governing Council member Vitas Vasiliauskas sums this up the best from his comments last week:

“Markets say the ECB is done, their box is empty. But we are magic people. Each time we take something and give to the markets – a rabbit out of the hat.”

Vasiliauskas is the perfect embodiment of the EU bureaucracy: they believe they are special people capable of performing miracles.

The arrogance and hubris in this statement are overwhelming and tell you everything you need to know about the unelected, unaccountable people who control our lives.

*  *  *

If you want to understand this issue even more, I highly recommend the documentary Brexit: The Movie.

It’s a well-presented masterpiece of government overreach that would likely win an award for Best Comedy if it weren’t sadly true.

If you’re pressed for time, here’s a 60-second snippet detailing the tens of thousand of regulations that crowd our daily lives:

end

 

RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Egyptian aircraft carrying 66 on board crashes into the Med. Sea.  It seems it blew up in mid air and thus it sure looks like another terrorist attack:

(courtesy zero hedge)

EgyptAir Flight From Paris To Cairo Crashes With 66 On Board

Six months after an Airbis A321 operated by Russia’s Metrojet exploded shortly after takeoff from Egypt’s Sinai peninsula en route to St. Petersburg, killing all 224 people on board in what was an ISIS-inspired terrorist attack, overnight there has been another aircraft-related tragedy when an EgyptAir flight carrying 66 passengers and crew on a flight from Paris to Cairo disappeared from radar over the Mediterranean shortly before landing, at 2:30am local time. Officials said they believed the jet has come down in the Mediterranean sea. A search and rescue operation is currently underway and authorities have said that no scenario can be ruled out, including terrorism.

Flight MS804 left Charles de Gaulle Airport at 11:09pm local time (21:09 GMT) on Wednesday Paris time and was expected to arrive in Cairo by 3am on Thursday. A direct flight usually takes just over four hours.

EgyptAir said on its Twitter account that Flight MS804 had departed Paris at 23:09 (CEST). It disappeared at 02:30 a.m. at an altitude of 37,000 feet (11,280 meters) in Egyptian air space, about 280 km (165 miles) from the Egyptian coast before it was due to land at 03:15 a.m..

An informed source at EGYPTAIR stated that Flight no MS804,which departed Paris at 23:09 (CEST),heading to Cairo has disappeared from radar.

 

The weather was clear at the time the plane disappeared, according to Eurocontrol, the European air traffic network. “Our daily weather assessment does not indicate any issues in that area at that time,” it said.  Speed and altitude data from aviation website FlightRadar24.com indicated the plane was cruising at the time it disappeared.

Egyptian Prime Minister Sherif Ismail said the search was underway to find the missing Airbus A320 and it was too early to rule out any explanation, including terrorism. Cited by Reuters, officials with the airline and the Egyptian civil aviation department told Reuters they believed the jet had crashed into the Mediterranean between Greece and Egypt.

It is as of this moment unclear whether the disappearance was due to technical failure or any other reason such as sabotage by ultra-hardline Islamists, who have targeted airports, airliners and tourist sites in Europe, Egypt, Tunisia and other Middle Eastern countries over the past few years.

“There was nothing unusual,” EgyptAir vice chairman Ahmed Adel told Reuters. “The search and rescue aircraft from the Egyptian air force are at the position where we lost contact. They are still looking and so far there is nothing found.”

According to Reuters, the aircraft was carrying 56 passengers – with one child and two infants among them – and 10 crew, EgyptAir said. They included 30 Egyptian and 15 French nationals, along with citizens of 10 other countries. “The theory that the plane crashed and fell is now confirmed after the preliminary search and after it did not arrive at any of the nearby airports,” said a senior aviation source, who declined to be identified. The airplane pilot had clocked up 6,275 hours of flying experience, including 2,101 hours on the A320, while the first officer had 2,766 hours, the airline said.

Airbus said the missing A320 had been delivered to EgyptAir in November 2003 and had operated about 48,000 flight hours.

Egypt Air said the plane sent an emergency signal – possibly from an emergency beacon attached to the plane – at 04:26 a.m., two hours after it disappeared from radar screens.  In water crashes, an underwater beacon attached to the aircraft’s flight recorders starts to emit a signal or ping. This helps search and rescue teams to locate the crash and find the boxes.

Asked if he could rule out that terrorists were behind the incident, Prime Minister Ismail said: “We cannot exclude anything at this time or confirm anything. All the search operations must be concluded so we can know the cause. Search operations are ongoing at this time for the airplane in the area where it is believed to have lost contact,” he told reporters at Cairo airport.

Reuters adds that Greek air traffic controllers spoke to the pilot as the jet flew over the island of Kea, in what was thought to be the last broadcast from the aircraft, and no problems were reported. But just ahead of the handover to Cairo airspace, calls to the plane went unanswered, before it dropped off radars shortly after exiting Greek airspace, Kostas Litzerakis, the head of Greece’s civil aviation department, told Reuters.

‘No problem’ cited by EgyptAir pilot in final contact: Greek official

“During the transfer procedure to Cairo airspace, about seven miles before the aircraft entered the Cairo airspace, Greek controllers tried to contact the pilot but he was not responding,” he said. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi will chair a national security council meeting on Thursday morning, a statement from his office said. It did not say if the meeting would discuss the plane.

At Cairo airport, authorities ushered families of the passengers and crew into a closed-off waiting area. However, two women and a man, who said they were related to a crew member, were seen leaving the VIP hall where families were being kept. Asked for details, the man said: “We don’t know anything, they don’t know anything. No one knows anything.”

In Paris, a police source said investigators were now interviewing officers who were on duty at Roissy airport on Wednesday evening to find out whether they heard or saw anything suspicious. “We are in the early stage here,” the source said.

Greece said it had deployed aircraft and a frigate to the area to help with the search. A Greek defense ministry source said authorities were also investigating an account from the captain of a merchant ship who reported a ‘flame in the sky’ about 130 nautical miles south of the island of Karpathos.

A terrorist link

An Airbus A321 operated by Russia’s Metrojet crashed in the Sinai on Oct. 31, 2015, killing all 224 people on board. Russia and Western governments have said the plane was probably brought down by a bomb, and the Islamic State militant group said it had smuggled an explosive device on board.

The crash called into question Egypt’s campaign to eradicate Islamist militancy and has damaged its tourism industry, a cornerstone of the economy.

Islamist militants have stepped up attacks on Egyptian soldiers and police since Sisi, as army chief, toppled freely elected Islamist President Mohamed Mursi in 2013 after mass protests against his rule.

In March, an EgyptAir plane flying from Alexandria to Cairo was hijacked and forced to land in Cyprus by a man with what authorities said was a fake suicide belt. He was arrested after giving himself up.

In the same month, Islamic State suicide bombers hit Brussels airport and a metro train in the worst such attacks in Belgian history, killing 32 people. Investigators believed they were carried out by the same cell that was behind November’s gun and bomb attacks in Paris which claimed the lives of 130 people.

If indeed this is another terrorist attack, we expect that shortly one of the extremeist Muslim organizations will step up to claim credit for this latest tragedy.

end

 

Then at 1 pm CNN reports that it was a bomb that blew up the Egyptian Airliner:

(courtesy zero hedge)

 

Trump Right Again? US Government Operating On Theory EgyptAir Plane “Taken Down By A Bomb”

Early this morning, following news of the tragic crash of yet another airplane, Donald Trump was the first to suggest that the catastrophe was the result of “yet another terrorist attack”…

Looks like yet another terrorist attack. Airplane departed from Paris. When will we get tough, smart and vigilant? Great hate and sickness!

 

… a statement which was promptly vilified in the media, most promintnly from the New York Times, but many others as well:

His post on Twitter drew criticism from Robert M. Gates, a former secretary of defense and director of the C.I.A., who was asked about it during an interview on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.”

 

“Well, I think it prejudges the outcome,” Mr. Gates said. “Let’s just suppose that it turns out not to be a terrorist event. Then what’s the — then what do you say, having made these allegations.”

 

He continued, “It’s always better to wait until you actually know what the facts are before you open up.

And, as usual, Trump is about to have the final laugh, because as CNN reported moments ago:

U.S. government officials are operating on an initial theory that EgyptAir Flight 804 was taken down by a bomb, two U.S. officials told CNN on Thursday. Officials said the theory could change, with one senior administration official cautioning it is not yet supported by a “smoking gun.”

Or bomb as the case may be. For the official confirmation we will probably have to wait for ISIS to claim the attack and perhaps release a video clip as it did in November when it was ISIS again that blew up a Russian passenger airplane deparing the Sinai penninsula.

However, a bigger question will emerge then: while the November terrorist attack was orchestrated by an ISIS supporter at the Egyptian airport, in this case there would have to be even more ISIS participation, only on the side of the departing city, in this case Paris. It would also mean that more terrorist attacks in Europe are likely to come as this would confirm there is at least one more active cell in the French capital.

end

GLOBAL ISSUES

 

FIVE BANKS INCLUDING BANK OF AMERICA AND DEUTSCHE BANK HAVE BEEN SUED OVER MANIPULATION IN AGENCY BONDS:

(COURTESY BLOOMBERG)

Banks Sued Over Manipulation on $9 Trillion Agency-Bond Market

Bank of America Corp. and Deutsche Bank AG were among five banks sued over claims that traders conspired to manipulate the market in agency bonds, which is made up of an estimated $9 trillion of debt issued by government entities and institutions like the World Bank.

The suit, filed by the Boston Retirement System, a pension fund representing city workers, follows inquiries by the U.S. and U.K. into the market for the securities, known as supranational, sub-sovereign and agency bonds, or SSAs. The probes target alleged illegal collusion in international bank trading, after regulators reached billions of dollars in settlements over manipulation claims involving interest-rate benchmarks and currency markets.

The suit, filed Wednesday in Manhattan federal court, adds the threat of possible triple damages available under U.S. antitrust law for investors harmed by any illegal price-fixing. Also sued were Credit Agricole SA, Credit Suisse Group AG and Nomura Holdings Inc. or their units.

The SSA market is generally defined to include international development organizations, government- sponsored entities and some sovereign debt. Depending on the securities which are included, the market could range from $9 trillion to $15 trillion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The bonds generally have high credit ratings because many are backed by explicit or implicit guarantees.

U.S. Probe

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05- 18/banks-sued-over-m
anipulation-on-9-trillion-agency- bond- market

-END-

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings/THURSDAY morning 7:00 am

Euro/USA   1.1204 DOWN .0015 ( STILL REACTING TO USA FAILED POLICY)

USA/JAPAN YEN 109.95 DOWN .273 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/SIGNALS U TURN WITH INCREASED NEGATIVITY IN NIRP/JAPAN OUT OF WEAPONS TO FIGHT ECONOMIC DISASTER

GBP/USA 1.4636 UP .0043 (LESS OF A THREAT OF BREXIT)

USA/CAN 1.3093 UP .0068

Early THIS THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 15 basis points, trading now WELL above the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1367; Europe is still reacting to deflation, announcements of massive stimulation (QE), a proxy middle east war, and the ramifications of a default at the Austrian Hypo bank, an imminent default of Greece, Glencore, Nysmark and the Ukraine, along with rising peripheral bond yield further stimulation as the EU is moving more into NIRP, and NOW THE USA’S NON tightening by FAILING TO RAISE THEIR INTEREST RATE / Last night the Shanghai composite  CLOSED DOWN BY 0.608 PTS OR 0.02% / Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 132.08 OR  0.67%   / AUSTRALIA IS LOWER BY 0.61%(RESOURCE STOCKS DOING POORLY / ALL EUROPEAN BOURSES ARE ALL IN THE RED   as they start their morning/

We are seeing that the 3 major global carry trades are being unwound. The BIGGY is the first one;

1. the total dollar global short is 9 trillion USA and as such we are now witnessing a sea of red blood on the streets as derivatives blow up with the massive rise in the rise in the dollar against all paper currencies and especially with the fall of the yuan carry trade. The emerging market which house close to 50% of the 9 trillion dollar short is feeling the massive pain as their debt is quite unmanageable.

2, the Nikkei average vs gold carry trade ( NIKKEI blowing up and the yen carry trade HAS BLOWN up/and now NIRP)

3. Short Swiss franc/long assets blew up ( Eastern European housing/Nikkei etc.

These massive carry trades are terribly offside as they are being unwound. It is causing global deflation ( we are at debt saturation already) as the world reacts to lack of demand and a scarcity of debt collateral. Bourses around the globe are reacting in kind to these events as well as the potential for a GREXIT>

The NIKKEI: this THURSDAY morning: closed UP 1.97 OR 0.01% 

Trading from Europe and Asia:
1. Europe stocks ALL THE RED AS  THEY START THEIR DAY

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / : Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 132.08 PTS OR 0.67% . ,Shanghai CLOSED  DOWN 0.608 OR 0.02%/ Australia BOURSE IN THE RED: /Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED IN THE GREEN BARELY/India’s Sensex IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: $1253.15

silver:$16.62

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.872% !!! UP 1 in basis points from WEDNESDAY night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%. The 30 yr bond yield FALLS to 2.67 DOWN 1 in basis points from WEDNESDAY night. (SPREAD GOES AGAINST THE BANKS)

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 95.26 UP 8 from WEDNESDAY’s close.(Now below resistance at a DXY of 100.)

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

END

And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS

Portuguese 10 year bond yield:  3.09% PAR in basis points from WEDNESDAY

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.065% UP 2 in   basis points from WEDNESDAY

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD:1.59%  DOWN 1 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.49  PAR IN basis points from WEDNESDAY

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 10 points lower than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: .168% UP 2  IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/3:30 PM

Euro/USA 1.1198 down .0021 (Euro =DOWN 21 basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/reacting to dovish YELLEN/ANOTHER FALL IN USA;YEN CROSS TODAY

USA/Japan: 109.93 DOWN 0.238 (Yen UP 24 basis points )

Great Britain/USA 1.4621 UP .0028 Pound UP 28 basis points/

USA/Canada 1.3083 UP 0.0055 (Canadian dollar DOWN 55 basis points with OIL RISING a BIT(WTI AT $48.17).

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

This afternoon, the Euro was DOWN by 21 basis points to trade at 1.1198

The Yen FELL to 109.93 for a GAIN of 24 basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/

The pound was UP 28 basis points, trading at 1.4621

The Canadian dollar FELL by 55 basis points to 1.3083, WITH WTI OIL AT:  $48.17

The USA/Yuan closed at 6.5450

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.065% UP 2 IN BASIS  points in yield/

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield: DOWN 2  IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 1.847% //trading well below the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)

USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.64 DOWN 4 in basis points on the day ( HUGE POLICY ERROR)

BANKS NEED THE LONGER BOND HIGHER IN YIELD: INSTEAD THE SPREAD LESSENS.

Your closing USA dollar index, 95.27 UP 8 IN CENTS ON THE DAY/4 PM

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY

London:  CLOSED DOWN 112.45 OR 1.82%
German Dax :CLOSED DOWN 147.34 OR 1.48%
Paris Cac  CLOSED DOWN 36.76  OR 0.86%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 100.40 OR 1.14%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 168.06 OR 0.95%

The Dow was DOWN 91.22  points or 0.52%

NASDAQ DOWN 26.59 points or 0.56%
WTI Oil price; 48.19 at 4:30 pm;

Brent Oil: 48.80

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE CROSS:  66.71 (ROUBLE DOWN 52/100 ROUBLES PER DOLLAR FROM YESTERDAY) AS THE PRICE OF BRENT FELL AND WTI FELL

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD ROSE TO .170  FOR THE 10 YR BOND

.

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today

Closing Price for Oil, 5 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 5 PM:48.18

BRENT: 48.86

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.848%

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 95.30 UP 22 cents

 

END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

Trading Today in Graph form;  VERY IMPORTANT FOR YOU TO VIEW ALL THE CHARTS TODAY

Hawk & Hawker Send Stocks Negative For 2016, Yield Curve Crush Continues

From uber-doves to ultra-hawks in 3 weeks (and a few hundred Dow points), today’s FedSpeak did not rescue stocks as everyone assumed it did as Dudley’s Dud dropped risk…

 

“Sell In May” is working once again…

 

And while The Dow craped back into green, S&P 500 closed red for 2016…

 

This week’s chaos is more clearly seen in futures with every rip sold and every dip bought…

 

While the big dump occurred early, it wouldn’t be ‘Murica if we didn’t ramp back maniacally trying to save the S&P from negative territory year-to-date… VIX topped 17.5 at the highs today (2-month highs)

 

Post-FOMC Minutes, Trannies and Small Caps are the worst performers…

 

Long Bonds are best since the hawkish minutes struck…

 

Treasuries were mixed with further weakness in the short-end but modest bid in the 30Y…

 

Pushing 2s30s even flatter…lowest since Dec 2008 which is not good news for financials..

 

The USD Index extended post-FOMC Minutes gains but only modestly as Cable remains the week’s big winner amid falling Brexit polls…

 

The modest strength in the dollar pressured most commodities lower but once Europe closed, crude oil was panic bid…

 

Gold & Silver have tumbled since The FOMC Minutes (but bounced back this afternoon)…

 

Charts: Bloomberg

Bonus Chart: This won’t end well…

Average:

4.4

END

Late last night, Elizabeth Holmes admits that billion dollar company Theranos is a fraud: the technology is a fraud:

 

(courtesy zero hedge)

 

Elizabeth Holmes Admits Theranos’ “Technology” Is A Fraud: Restates, Voids Years Of Test Results

The billion dollar baby has now, officially, gone bye bye.

 

Just when you thought that the biggest ever “multi-billion” private company that also happens to be an utter fraud, would quietly disappear before it risked attracting even more unwarranted attention from regulators, enforcers, and criminal investigators which could potentially lead to prison time for “billionaire” Elizabeth Holmes, here she comes again reminding everyone of her fallen from grace presence, in this case with what should be the terminal news for this company, namely that as the WSJ reports (and as the company confirms) Theranos has told federal health regulators that the company voided and revised two years of results from its Edison blood-testing devices and has issued tens of thousands of corrected reports to doctors and patients.

As a reminder, the basis for Theranos ludicrous $9 billion valuation which it appears was achieved without anyone doing any actual due diligence, were the “Edison” machines which were touted as revolutionary – not just by Holmes but by the fawning media and even the Clintons. Theranos has now told regulators that it threw out all Edison test results from 2014 and 2015, effectively confirming it has no proprietary technology, and also validating that its valuation should be zero.

Worse, Theranos has told regulators that it used the Edison for 12 types of tests out of more than 200 offered to consumers and stopped using the devices altogether in late June 2015. In other words, Theranos’ insane “valuation” was achieved on the basis of doing only 6% of blood tests in house (all of them erroneously we now learn), and outsourcing 94% to companies whose products actually worked and many of whom likely had a far lower valuation than the one at which a bunch of idiot billionaires “valued” Holmes’ worthless company.

In the process of commiting fraud and building up her valuation, Holmes repeatedly gambled with people’s lives, sending them clearly wrong results. As a result some patients have received erroneous results that might have thrown off health decisions made with their doctors, the WSJ reports. All this is needed is one death and there is a criminal case.

So why come clean now?

The move is part of Theranos’s attempt to persuade the agency not to impose stiff sanctions it threatened in the aftermath of its inspection of the company’s Newark, Calif., laboratory. The voided and revised test results are one of the most dramatic steps yet taken by Theranos.

 

Company records reviewed during the inspection showed that the California lab ran about 890,000 tests a year. The inspection found that Edison machines in the lab often failed to meet the company’s own accuracy requirements.

In other words, Theranos may have put as many as 890,000 lives per year in jeopardy with its fake technology.

The good news, this is now officially game over for if not Elizabeth Holmes, then certainly her company:

“There have been massive recalls of single tests in the past, but I’m not aware of one where a company recalled the entirety of the results from its testing platform,” said Geoffrey Baird, associate professor in the department of laboratory medicine at the University of Washington in Seattle. “I believe that’s unprecedented.”

The company also commented:

In response to questions from The Wall Street Journal about the blood-test corrections, Theranos spokeswoman Brooke Buchanan said: “Excellence in quality and patient safety is our top priority and we’ve taken comprehensive corrective measures to address the issues CMS raised in their observations. As these matters are currently under review, we have no further comment at this time.”

That’s rich, pardon the pun. Less rich, if only on paper, will be Holmes who will have ample opportunity to make numerous comments during trial.

* * *

Finally, the question everyone should be asking is who enabled this fraud for so many years? The simple answer: everyone, and especially those who have an agenda to conduct one endless infomercial for a product that ended up being an epic fraud

 

 

end

 

Bellwether Caterpillar has retail sales falling for a record 41 consecutive months.The global growth is stagnant!

(courtesy zero hedge0

 

 

Caterpillar Retail Sales Fall For Record 41 Consecutive Months

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