June 14/ANOTHER HUGE 2.38 TONNES OF GOLD (PAPER GOLD) ADDED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/EXTREMELY HIGH GOLD OI CAUSES OUR BANKSTERS TO RAID GOLD AND SILVER TODAY AND THAT FAILED/GERMANY JOINS SWITZERLAND, SWEDEN, DENMARK AND JAPAN WITH 10 YR BONDS IN NEGATIVE TERRITORY/BOURSES AROUND THE WORLD PLUMMET/THE HUGE UK NEWSPAPER ENDORSES A BREXIT/DEUTSCHE BANK AND CREDIT SUISSE PLUMMET BADLY TODAY/JPMORGAN’S QUANT SPECIALIST STATES THAT THIS FRIDAY WE WILL SEE TURMOIL IN MARKETS.

Good evening Ladies and Gentlemen:

Gold:  $1,285.60 UP $1.20    (comex closing time)

Silver 17.41  down 2 cents

In the access market 5:15 pm

Gold $1286.00

silver:  17.40

i) the June gold contract is an active contract. Last  night we had a good sized 348 notices filed for 34,800 oz to be served upon today.  The total number of notices filed in the first 10 days is enormous at 14,700 for 1,470,000 oz.  (45.723 tonnes)

ii) in silver we had 0 notices filed.  total number of notices served  in the 10 days:  202 for 1,010,000 oz

Let us have a look at the data for today

.

Several months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today, the total inventory rests at 273.84 tonnes for a loss of 29 tonnes over that period

In silver, the total open interest ROSE by 3332 contracts UP to 197,852 DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS  UP by only 11 cents with respect to YESTERDAY’S trading. In ounces, the OI is still represented by just under 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.989 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 141% of annual global silver production (ex Russia &ex China)

In silver we had 0 notices served upon for nil oz.

In gold, the total comex gold OI ROSE by a CONSIDERABLE 12,901 contracts UP to 539.175 as the price of gold was UP $11.00 with YESTERDAY’S trading (at comex closing).

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

 GLD

We had A HUGE change  in inventory, A DEPOSIT OF 2.38 TONNES into the GLD/Inventory rests at  898.67 tonnes.

 SLV

We had no changes  in inventory into the SLV Inventory/Tonight it rests  at 340.389 million oz.

Both the GLD and SLV are massive frauds as they have no metal behind them!

.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in silver ROSE by 3332 contracts up to 197,852 as the price of silver was up by ONLY 11 cents with YESTERDAY’S trading. The gold open interest ROSE by 12,901 contracts UP to 538,175 as the price of gold was up $11.00 on YESTERDAY.

(report Harvey).

 

2 a) Gold trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark OByrne/

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late  MONDAY night/ TUESDAY morning: Shanghai closed UP 9.117 POINTS OR 0.32% ON A LAST HR RESCUE/ /Hang Sang closed DOWN 125.46 OR 0.61%. The Nikkei closed DOWN 160.18 POINTS OR 1.00% Australia’s all ordinaires  CLOSED DOWN 2.02% Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.5932 /Oil FELL to 48.19 dollars per barrel for WTI and 49.54 for Brent. Stocks in Europe ALL IN THE RED . Offshore yuan trades  6.6026 yuan to the dollar vs 6.5932 for onshore yuan.THE SPREAD BETWEEN ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE NARROWS A BIT 

REPORT ON JAPAN  SOUTH KOREA AND CHINA

a) REPORT ON JAPAN

none today

b) REPORT ON CHINA

none today

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)The big story of the day:  The UK Telegraph newspaper urges British citizens to vote for a BREXIT:

( zero hedge)

ii)Late last night, French anti terror police surround a man of Muslim descent who ended up killing a policeman and his wife who is also a member of the police force:

( zero hedge)

Two stories

 

iii) Another biggy!!

Things are rapidly disintegrating as Credit Suisse and Deutsche bank collapse to record lows:  why?  European funding stress as the Libor rates rises exponentially:

( zero hedge)

 

iv)Where comes the big QE!! from the ECB and other central banks as they brace for a BREXIT

v)Dave Kranzler highlights the huge risk to the global economy of a default at Deutsche bank and Credit Suisse

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

none today

7.OIL ISSUES

( zero hedge)

8.EMERGING MARKETS

9. PHYSICAL STORIES

10.USA STORIES WHICH MAY INFLUENCE THE PRICE OF GOLD/SILVER

i)Retail sales growth in the uSA tumbles. There is not a hope that the USA will raise rates:

( zero hedge)

ii)Business inventories surge as well as the most important indicator, business inventories/sales ratio.  That ratio is at recessionary lows; 1..40

( zero hedge)

iii) This is interesting:  investors in the the Libyan Investment Authority is suing Goldman Sachs with 9 disputed trades conducted in 2008.  As we have pointed out to you on many occasions, Goldman Sachs would take the opposite side and always wins.

( zero hedge)

iv)I have been highlighting Marko’s brilliance in predicting where markets will flow whether up or down. This man has been right 100% of the time.  Today, he is throwing caution into the winds as he states that the next turmoil is options expiry this Friday:(courtesy zero hedge)

v)Here is another good Bellwether on the state of the consumer:  Credit card company, Synchrony Financial, a spin out from General Electric  expects to write off rates equal to 20 to 30 basis points over the next 12 months;  why? They find that the in general, the consumer is having “difficulty in its ability to pay”

(courtesy Synchrony Financial zero hedge)

Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest ROSE to an OI level of 539,175 for a  gain of 12,901 contracts AS THE PRICE OF GOLD WAS UP $11.00 with respect to YESTERDAY’S TRADING. . WE HAVE ENTERED THE SECOND BIGGEST DELIVERY MONTH OF THE YEAR THAT IS JUNE, A VERY ACTIVE MONTH. For the past two years, we have strangely witnessed two interesting developments and we have generally seen two phenomena happen respect to the gold open interest:  1) total gold comex collapses in OI as we enter any delivery month  and 2) a continual drop in the amount of gold standing in that month as that month progresses. IN THE MONTH OF MAY THE LATER HAD STOPPED. DURING THE MAY WE DID WITNESS A GRADUAL RISE IN AMOUNT STANDING AND THE AMOUNT STANDING AT THE CONCLUSION OF THE MONTH FINISHED AT ITS ZENITH..  IN JUNE, ON FIRST DAY NOTICE WE HAVE CERTAINLY WITNESSED THE FORMER, A HUGE LOSS OF TOTAL OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR THE ENTIRE GOLD COMEX COMPLEX . HOWEVER WE HAVE MORE THAN MADE UP FOR THE LOSS AS MORE INVESTORS ENTER THE ARENA TO TAKE ON THE CRIMINAL BANKERS. WE HAD ANOTHER GAIN IN JUNE OI TODAY FOR GOLD OZ STANDING IN THIS ACTIVE JUNE CONTRACT.

The FRONT gold contract month of June saw it’s OI fall to 1551 for a loss of 98 contracts. We had 103 notices filed yesterday, so we gained 5 contracts or 500 additional oz  WILL STAND FOR METAL. The next active contract month is July and here we saw it’s OI ROSE by 52 contracts UP to 3107.This may  be troublesome for our bankers as the front July contract month is extremely high for a non active month and it also refuses to shrivel. The next big active contract month is August and here the OI ROSE by 13,077 contracts UP to 396,243. The estimated volume today (which is just comex sales during regular business hours of 8:20 until 1:30 pm est) was GOOD at 195,725. The confirmed volume  yesterday (which includes the volume during regular business hours + access market sales the previous day was good at 213,440 contracts. The comex is not in backwardation.

Today we had 348 notices filed for 34,800 oz in gold.

 

And now for the wild silver comex results. Silver OI ROSE by 3332 contracts from 194,520 UP to 197,852 as the price of silver was up BY 11 cents with YESTERDAY’S TRADING. The front month of June saw it’s OI FALL by 0 contracts REMAINING AT 339. We had 0 notices filed yesterday, so we NEITHER GAINED NOR LOST ANY SILVER OUNCES STANDING. The next big delivery month is July and here the OI fell by 1,715 contracts DOWN to 92,722. The volume on the comex today (just comex) came in at 46,812 which IS VERY GOOD. The confirmed volume FRIDAY (comex + globex) was huge at 78,064. Silver is not in backwardation . London is in backwardation for several months.
 
We had 0 notices filed for nil oz.
 

JUNE contract month:

INITIAL standings for JUNE

June 14.
Gold
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz   nil OZ
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz  nil  nil
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 9,499.97 OZ

BRINKS

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz   10,952.717  oz

incl

200 KILOBARS

BRINKS, &

JPM

No of oz served (contracts) today 348 contracts
(34,800 oz)
No of oz to be served (notices) 1203 contracts

120,300 oz

Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month 14,700 contracts (1,470,000 oz)

(45.72 TONNES SO FAR)

Total accumulative withdrawals  of gold from the Dealers inventory this month   1400.01 OZ
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month  149,288.91 OZ

Today we had 1 dealer DEPOSIT

i) Into Brinks:  9499.97 oz

total dealer deposit:  9499.97  0z

 

Today we had 0 dealer withdrawals:

total dealer withdrawals:  nil oz

 

Today we had 2 customer deposit:

i) into BRINKS:  6430.000 oz  (200 kilobars)

ii) INTO JPMorgan; 4522.717 oz  (real gold)

Total customer deposits; 10,952.717   OZ

Today we had 0 customer withdrawals:

 

total customer withdrawals:  NIL oz

Today we had 0 adjustment:

Today, 0 notices was issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 348 contracts of which 126 notices was stopped (received) by JPMorgan dealer and 177 notices was stopped (received)  by JPMorgan customer account. 
To calculate the initial total number of gold ounces standing for the JUNE contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (14,700) x 100 oz  or 1,470,000 oz , to which we  add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE (1551 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (348) x 100 oz   x 100 oz per contract equals 1,590,300 oz, the number of ounces standing in this active month.  This number is EXTREMELY huge for JUNE.  THE AMOUNT STANDING FOR GOLD IN MAY HELD THROUGHOUT THE MONTH AND ACTUALLY INCREASED AS THE MONTH PROCEEDED. AND IT SURE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAPPEN AGAIN IN JUNE. 
 
Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JUNE. contract month:
No of notices served so far (14,700) x 100 oz  or ounces + {OI for the front month (1551) minus the number of  notices served upon today (348) x 100 oz which equals 1,590,300 oz standing in this   active delivery month of JUNE (49.465 tonnes).
INTERESTINGLY FIRST DAY NOTICE HAD 49.119 TONNES OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY SO WE HAVE GAINED BACK   ALL OF THE GOLD LOST IN STANDING DUE TO FIAT SETTLEMENTS AND A LITTLE MORE (49.465 TONNES) .
WE  gained 5 contracts or an additional 600 oz will not stand for GOLD
Since the comex allows GLD shares to be used for settling, it may take quite a while for the physical gold to enter the comex vaults.  So far I have seen little evidence of any settling of contracts but I will continue to monitor it for you. 
 
We thus have 49.465 tonnes of gold standing for JUNE and 51.487 tonnes of registered gold for sale, waiting to serve upon those standing.  The bankers are still doing their best in cash settling as there is not enough registered gold to satisfy those that are standing.
We now have partial evidence of gold settling for last months deliveries We now have 6.889 TONNES FOR MAY + 49.465 TONNES FOR JUNE + 12.3917 tonnes (April) +2.2311 tonnes (March) + 7.99 (total Feb)- .940 (probable delivery on March 1) tonnes -.0434 tonnes (March 11,12,17,18) + March 31: 1.2470 and then  April 1,2: – .0006 tonnes  and last week April 16 .3203 and April 22 .(0009 tonnes) + april 29  .205 tonnes + May 5:  3.799 and May 6: 1.607 tonnes – MAY 12  .0003- May 18: 1.5635 tonnes-May 19/   2.535 tonnes-May 27 .0185 – .024 TONNES MAY 31 -jUNE 4: .5044 ; june 10 -.0008  = 66.193 tonnes still standing against 51.04 tonnes available.
 Total dealer inventor 1,655,331.926 tonnes or 51.487 tonnes
Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) =8,804,052.180 or 273.84 tonnes 
 
Several months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today the total inventory rests at 273.84 tonnes for a loss of 29 tonnes over that period. 
 
JPMorgan has only 25.70 tonnes of gold total (both dealer and customer)
JPMorgan now has only .900 tonnes left in its dealer account.
THE GOLD COMEX IS AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD. THE USE OF KILOBARS AND EXACT WEIGHTS MAKES THE DATA TOTALLY ABSURD!!
 
 end
SMALL ACTIVITY AGAIN INSIDE THE SILVER COMEX
And now for silver
 

June initial standings

 June 14.2016

Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory  639,041.541 oz

CNT

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory NIL
Deposits to the Customer Inventory   1,277,387.342  oz

JPM, Scotia

No of oz served today (contracts) 0 CONTRACTS 

nil OZ

No of oz to be served (notices) 339 contracts

1,695,000 oz

Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 202 contracts (1,010,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month nil oz
Total accumulative withdrawal  of silver from the Customer inventory this month  16,905,478.3 oz

today we had 0 deposit into the dealer account

total dealer deposit:NIL oz

we had 0 dealer withdrawals:

total dealer withdrawals:  nil

we had 3 customer deposit:

i) Into BRINKS:  284,857.450 OZ

ii) Into Delaware: 9087.420 oz

iii) Into JPMorgan:  357,362.900 oz

Total customer deposits: 651,307.770 oz.

We had 1 customer withdrawals

i) Out of CNT:  639,041.541 oz

:

total customer withdrawals:  639,041.541 oz

 
 

 

 we had 0 adjustment

The total number of notices filed today for the JUNE contract month is represented by 0 contracts for nil oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JUNE., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at (202) x 5,000 oz  = 1,010,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE (339) and the number of notices served upon today (0) x 5000 oz equals the number of ounces standing 
 
Thus the initial standings for silver for the JUNE contract month:  202 (notices served so far)x 5000 oz +{339 OI for front month of JUNE ) -number of notices served upon today (0)x 5000 oz  equals  2,705,000 of silver standing for the JUNE contract month.
We neither lost nor gained any silver ounces standing today.
 
Total dealer silver:  22.482 million  (RECORD LOW INVENTORY)
Total number of dealer and customer silver:   151.056 million oz
The total open interest on silver is NOW moving closer to its all time high with the record of 207,394 being set May 18.2016. The registered silver (dealer silver) is NOW AT  multi year lows as silver is being drawn out and heading to China and other destinations. The shear movement of silver into and out of the vaults signify that something is going on in silver.
end
And now the Gold inventory at the GLD
June 14./ANOTHER HUGE “PAPER” DEPOSIT OF 2.38 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 898.67 TONNES
JUNE 13/ANOTHER GOOD SIZED PAPER GOLD DEPOSIT OF 2.47 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS 896.29 TONNES
June 10/a huge “paper” deposit of 6.54 tonnes of gold into the GLD/Inventory rests at 893.92 tonnes
JUNE 9. a huge deposit of 6.23 tonnes of gold into the GLD/Inventory rests at 887.38 tones
June 8/no change in inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 881.15 tonnes
june 7/ a tiny withdrawal of .29 tonnes of inventory/probably to pay for fees/Inventory rests at 881.15 tonnes
June 6/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 881.44 tonnes
June 3/ We had two big  sized deposits of 4.46 tonnes early this morning and then another 6.24 tonnes late tonight/ new GLD total: 881.44 tonnes  (total: 10.7 tonnes)
June 2/no change in gold inventory at the GLD.Inventory rests at 870.74 tonnes
June 1.2016/ a good sized deposit of 2.08 tonnes/Inventory rests at 870.74 tonnes
May 31/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 868.66 TONNES
May 27/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 868.66 tonnes
May 26./no change at the GLD/Inventory rests at 868.66 tonnes
May 25./no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 868.66 tonnes
MAY 24/ a good sized withdrawal of 3.86 tonnes of paper gold from the GLD/Inventory rests at 868.66 tonnes
May 23./this is rather impossible: another huge deposit of 3.26 tonnes into the GLD with the price of gold down again today?/inventory rests at 872.52 tonnes
May 20/what!!!A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF :8.92 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/AND WITH GOLD DOWN $2.80??/INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.26
May 19/ANOTHER HUGE DEPOSIT OF 4.46 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/iNVENTORY RESTS AT 860.34 TONNES
May 18 /no changes in inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 855.89 tonnes.
May 17/ we had a huge deposit of 4.76 tonnes of gold into the GLD/Inventory rests tonight at 855.89 tonnes/in the last two and 1/2 weeks we have added 50 tonnes of gold and this most likely was all paper gold addition..
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

June 14.:  inventory rests tonight at 898.67 tonnes

end

Now the SLV Inventory
June 14./NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 340.389 MILLION OZ
JUNE 13/A HUGE PAPER SILVER ADDITION OF 1.664 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 340.389 MILLION OZ
June 10/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 338.725 million oz
JUNE 9/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 338.725 million oz.
June 8/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 338.725 million oz
june 7/ we had a huge addition (deposit) of 1.456 million oz into the SLV/Inventory rests at 338.725 million oz/
June 6/no change at the SLV/Inventory rests at 337.299 million oz/
June 3/ a huge deposit of 1.56 million oz was added to the SLV inventory/new inventory rests at 337.299 million oz
June 2/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 335.739 million oz
June 1/no change in silver inventory at hte SLV/inventory rests at 335.739  million oz
May 31/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 335.739 MILLION OZ
May 27/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 335.739 million oz/
May 26./ no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 335.739 million oz
May 25./no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 335.739
MAY 24/no change in inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 335.739 million oz
May 23./we had a small withdrawal of 285,000 oz and that generally means payment of fees.Inventory rests at 335.739 million oz
May 20/WE HAD A GOOD SIZED DEPOSIT OF 951,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 336.024 MILLION OZ
May 19/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 335.073 million oz
May 18/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 335.073 million oz/
May 17/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 335.073 million oz/
.
June 14.2016: Inventory 340.389 million oz
end

NPV for Sprott and Central Fund of Canada

1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative 2.9 percent to NAV usa funds and Negative 2.8% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!!
Percentage of fund in gold 61.4%
Percentage of fund in silver:37.2%
cash .+1.4%( June 14/2016). /
2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): Premium RISES  to +0.08%!!!! NAV (June 14.2016) 
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  FALLS TO +1.57% to NAV  ( June 14.2016)
Note: Sprott silver trust back  into POSITIVE territory at +08% /Sprott physical gold trust is back into positive territory at +1.57%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail.
 
 
 

END

And now your overnight trading in gold,TUESDAY MORNING and also physical stories that may interest you:

Trading in gold and silver overnight in Asia and Europe
Mark O’Byrne (Goldcore)

“Gold Will Be The World’s Strongest Currency” If BREXIT Happens

Gold and Silver News and Commentary
If BREXIT Happens – “Gold Will Be The World’s Strongest Currency”  (Zero Hedge)
Brexit and Gold (Townhall)
Fake gold and silver coins ‘flooding’ market (NBC)
Looming ‘Brexit’ Vote Rattles Global Markets (WSJ)
Brexit’s First 100 Days Promise Chaos, Fear, Damage Limitation (Bloomberg)
Read More Here

brexit-1462470592ZSA
Gold hits 4-week high as Brexit vote shakes stocks (CNBC)
Asian Stocks Battered by Brexit Angst as Pound Falls; Bonds Gain (Bloomberg)
Gold holds near four-week high, Fed meeting in focus (Reuters)
Chinese buyers push bitcoin price to highest level since Mt. Gox blowup (Marketwatch)
Gold Advances to Four-Week High on Brexit Risk, Fed Rate Outlook (Bloomberg)
Read More Here

Recent Market Updates
UK Gold Demand Rises On BREXIT “Nerves”
 Pensions Timebomb in “Slow Motion Detonation” In UK, EU, U.S.
 Silver – Perfect Storm Brewing in the Market
– Martin Wolf: There Will Be Another “Huge” Financial Crisis

– Silver Price To Surge 800% on Global Industrial and Technological Demand

 BREXIT Gold Diversification As Vote Fuels Market Uncertainty
 Gold Forecasts Revised Higher – Citi Says “Buy the Dip”
– World’s Largest Asset Manager Suggests “Perfect Time” For Gold

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)
14 June: USD 1,279.40, EUR 1,140.84 and GBP 904.79 per ounce
13 June: USD 1,284.10, EUR 1,139.25 and GBP 909.27 per ounce
10 June: USD 1,266.60, EUR 1,121.07 and GBP 876.87 per ounce
09 June: USD 1,258.35, EUR 1,107.98 and GBP 870.53 per ounce
08 June: USD 1,252.40, EUR 1,101.61 and GBP 851.65 per ounce
07 June: USD 1,241.10, EUR 1,091.42 and GBP 851.02 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)
14 June: USD 17.25, EUR 15.37 and GBP 12.17 per ounce
13 June: USD 17.32, EUR 15.37 and GBP 12.23 per ounce
10 June: USD 17.32, EUR 15.33 and GBP 12.01 per ounce
09 June: USD 17.05, EUR 15.03 and GBP 11.79 per ounce
08 June: USD 16.75, EUR 14.73 and GBP 11.50 per ounce
07 June: USD 16.31, EUR 14.36 and GBP 11.18 per ounce

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director
There are fake bullion coins coming from China so be careful and make sure you deal with a dealer.
(courtesy NBC news)

Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight

 
 

:

1 Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/yuan  DOWN to 6.5932 ( DEVALUATION SOUTHBOUND  /CHINA UNHAPPY TODAY CONCERNING USA DOLLAR RISE/MORE $ USA DOLLARS LEAVE CHINA/OFFSHORE YUAN NARROWS TO 6.6026) / Shanghai bourse  UP 9.117 OR 0.32%   / HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 125.46 OR 0.61%

2 Nikkei closed DOWN 160.18 OR 1.00% /USA: YEN FALLS  TO 105.99

3. Europe stocks opened ALL IN THE RED  /USA dollar index UP to 94.82/Euro DOWN to 1.1225

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS  TO -.155%     !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 105.99

3c Nikkei now WELL BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI::  48.16  and Brent: 49.58

3f Gold UP  /Yen UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa.

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN for Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10 yr bund FALLS to -.005%   German bunds in negative yields from 10 years out

 Greece  sees its 2 year rate RISE to 11.99%/: 

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISE to  : 8.12%   (YIELD CURVE NOW COMPLETELY INVERTED)

3k Gold at $1283.40/silver $17.36(7:45 am est)  RESISTANCE AT 16.52 BROKEN 

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 67 in  roubles/dollar) 66.28-

3m oil into the 48 dollar handle for WTI and 49 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation  (already upon us). This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/China forced to do QE!! as it lowers its yuan value to the dollar/expect a huge devaluation imminently from POBC.

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.08 DESTROYING WHATEVER IS LEFT OF OUR YEN CARRY TRADERS

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9645 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0827 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN IN LAST LEG OF ITS CAMPAIGN AS TO WHETHER EXIT THE EU NEW POLLS INDICATES A SWING TO THE BREXIT.

3r the 10 Year German bund now  in negative territory with the 10 year FALLS to  – .005%

/German 10 year rate negative%!!!

3s The Greece ELA NOW a 71.4 billion euros,

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”.  Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.583% early this morning. Thirty year rate  at 2.399% /POLICY ERROR)

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)

Soaring Brexit Fears Spark Global Flight To Safety, Send 10 Year Bunds Tumbling Below 0%

The Fed’s June rate hike decision is due in just over 24 hours, but at this moment nobody cares for two reasons: the market implied probability of a rate hike announcement is 0% (technically, less than zero), and, as DB puts it, “the UK EU referendum is suddenly totally dominant in financial markets” – the increased focus comes as the leave campaign has gathered steam as 4 polls yesterday afternoon/evening put the ‘leave’ campaign ahead.

  • ICM phone and online poll showed 53% would vote to leave EU and 47% to remain. (Guardian)
  • YouGov/Times poll showed 46% would vote to leave EU and 39% to remain. (The Times)
  • ORB/Telegraph poll showed 49% would vote to leave EU 48% to remain. (The Telegraph)

But it’s not just the volatile polls this time: overnight Britain’s biggest selling daily newspaper The Sun has backed the campaign for the UK to leave the European Union, delivering a major boost to the Brexit camp just nine days before the EU referendum. In a front-page article headlined “BeLEAVE in Britain”the Rupert Murdoch owned tabloid declared that remaining in the EU would be “worse for immigration, worse for jobs, worse for wages and worse for our way of life”.

This has boosted concerns which emerged over the weekend, that a major shift in UK public sentiment toward Brexit is underway, which in turn proceeded to slam global risk markets yesterday, and continued to do so today. In fact, increasing odds of a U.K. exit from the European Union boosted demand for havens, sending Germany’s 10-year bond yields below zero for the first time.

The risk off move was widespread: US treasuries rallied for a sixth day, with the yield falling four basis points to 1.57%, having reached the lowest since Feb. 11; Treasury yields fell to records in Australia and Japan, stocks in Europe slid for a fifth day, while the yen rose against its 31 major peers. U.S. oil slipped toward $48 a barrel. Naturally, the pound fell to two month lows as Brexit implied odds hit a new record high.

The shift in investor sentiment in just the past week has been phenomenal: from sheer complacency, there is now downright tangible panic just below the surface. Case in point: “Nobody buys bunds at these yield levels thinking they are attractive,” said Jussi Hiljanen, head of European macro and fixed income strategy at SEB A/B in Stockholm. “Demand for haven assets are being driven by fear of Brexit and growth concern. Investors are buying bunds as a hedge against uncertainty.”

Others piled on: “people are now insulating portfolios against the worst-case scenario as polls indicate some momentum for the Brexit camp, but the European policy response is underestimated,” said William Hobbs, head of investment strategy at the wealth-management unit of Barclays, from London. “It doesn’t mean the sentiment can’t swoon after, but the contribution of the U.K.’s economy to world’s capital markets is, in the end, limited. Europe looks better equipped than before to handle such a risk.”

And just like yesterday, European stocks are getting slammed the most, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index sliding over 1% , heading for its biggest five-day decline since February, amid investor concern that the tide has turned in favor of Britain seceding from the EU; all 19 groups on the Stoxx 600 fell, with miners and carmakers sliding the most. Among shares active on corporate news, GAM Holding AG tumbled 18 percent after the Swiss asset manager said first-half profit will probably halve as performance fees dry up.

Futures on the S&P 500 slipped 0.2%, indicating equities will extend losses after falling for a third day Monday, their longest losing streak in a month. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 0.8 percent, losing 4.7 percent in four days. Equity benchmarks in Russia, South Africa, Poland, Turkey and the Philippines declined at least 1.3 percent.

Investors will look to an advance report on retail sales Tuesday for indications of the health of the world’s largest economy.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 2063
  • Stoxx 600 down 1.4% to 322
  • FTSE 100 down 1.2% to 5970
  • DAX down 1.2% to 9537
  • German 10Yr yield down 5bps to -0.03%
  • Italian 10Yr yield up 2bps to 1.48%
  • Spanish 10Yr yield up 3bps to 1.53%
  • S&P GSCI Index down 1% to 377.4
  • MSCI Asia Pacific down 0.7% to 126
  • Nikkei 225 down 1% to 15859
  • Hang Seng down 0.6% to 20388
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.3% to 2842
  • S&P/ASX 200 down 2.1% to 5203
  • US 10-yr yield down 4bps to 1.57%
  • Dollar Index up 0.49% to 94.83
  • WTI Crude futures down 1.5% to $48.15
  • Brent Futures down 1.3% to $49.70
  • Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,280
  • Silver spot down 0.9% to $17.29

Global Top News

  • 4 Polls Put U.K. on Course to Leave EU as ‘Sun’ Backs Brexit: Leave campaign ahead in both phone and online polling; biggest-selling newspaper uses front page to support leaving; Pound Falls Toward Two-Month Low on Brexit Vote Concern
  • Fed Grip on $2.5 Trillion Treasury Stash Seen Firm for Years: Traders now see less than a 50% chance of the next increase coming this year
  • NXP Selling Products Unit for $2.75b to Chinese Group: Buyers are Jianguang Asset Management and Wise Road Capital; Nexperia business had $1.2b in revenue in 2015
  • Goldman Tied to Rival Bidder as Morgan Stanley Wins on Microsoft: Morgan Stanley won the role as Microsoft’s adviser on its agreement to buy LinkedIn, climbs to No. 1 dealmaker for tech this year
  • BofA CEO Eyes Market-Share Gains as Europe Peers Sound Alarm: U.S. banks against tough rules, markets are still stronger than many overseas rivals, will take their business: CEO Moynihan
  • Apple Opens Siri to Developers in Effort to Catch Up With Rivals: Apple unveiled software that will allow its voice- activated personal assistant Siri to order pizza, call for a cab or check a bank balance
  • Redstone’s Ex-Girlfriend Seeks New Trial Over Mental Capacity: Manuela Herzer claims she has new evidence to prove her case

Looking at regional markets, we start in Asia which traded mostly lower following the losses in the US, where declines in energy dragged US stocks to 2-week lows, while the looming FOMC decision and Brexit concerns further added to the cautious tone. Nikkei 225 (-1.0%) fell below the 16,000 level as JPY broke below the 106.00 handle, while ASX 200 (-2.1%) is the laggard as it tracks the weakness across global equity markets on its return from its extended weekend. Elsewhere, the Shanghai Comp (+0.3%) shook off the negative tone after the PBoC upped its liquidity injection, while participants are also tentative ahead of the MSCI decision on whether to include Chinese A-shares. Finally, 10yr JGBs traded higher amid weakness seen in Japanese stocks, with yields across the curve pressured as 5yr, 10yr and 20yr yields all printed fresh record lows.

Top Asian News

  • Yuan Approaches Five-Year Low Amid Concern Over Economy, Brexit: Currency impact from any MSCI inclusion to be marginal, SocGen says
  • MSCI Is About to Make Its Big Call on World’s Worst Stock Market: Index clearing house to announce whether to add Chinese equities
  • Best-Performing Asian Stock Market May Get Extra MSCI Boost: Pakistan has 70% chance of upgrade to EM, says Tundra Fonder
  • India Wholesale Inflation Rate Exceeds Estimate to 19-Mo. High: WPI rate rises 0.79% in May, highest since Oct. 2014
  • Disney Plays by China Rules With Shanghai Park, Media Strategy: Content ambitions hemmed in by piracy, government push-back
  • Baidu Reduces Revenue Forecast on Ad Restrictions: Rules follow death of student who used results to treat health

In Europe markets continue to remain gripped by the global uncertainty surrounding the EU referendum and the Fed with more polls overnight leaning to the leave camp, subsequently adding fuel to the fire regarding Brexit fears.

  • ICM phone and online poll showed 53% would vote to leave EU and 47% to remain. (Guardian)
  • YouGov/Times poll showed 46% would vote to leave EU and 39% to remain. (The Times)
  • ORB/Telegraph poll showed 49% would vote to leave EU 48% to remain. (The Telegraph)

As such, credit markets have yet again soared with global bond yields plummeting to record lows in the past couple of weeks, with Bunds now yielding negative for the first time on record, while Gilts also drop to all-time lows. Elsewhere, equities continue to find no reprieve with broad based weakness across Europe (Euro Stoxx -1.6%). In turn, the aforementioned global uncertainty, coupled with the fall in crude prices in which WTI has tested USD 48/bbl to the downside has seen pressured the FTSE 100 to break below 6,000 for the first time since February.

Top European News

  • Germany’s 10-Year Bond Yield Declines Below Zero for First Time: The nation joined Japan and Switzerland in having 10- year bond yields of less than zero
  • Daetwyler to Buy Premier Farnell for About $1.1b: Premier Farnell investors to get 165p/share in cash; offer represents a premium of about 51% from Monday’s close.
  • France Braces for New Street Demonstrations Against Labor Bill: labor union CGT maintains opposition to government plans.
  • Allianz Buying U.K. Stocks That Brexit Concern Makes Attractive: company fundamentals seen the same regardless of outcome
  • GAM Holding Plummets After Saying 1H Profit to Drop 50%

In FX, the pound continued to weaken, dropping 0.9% versus the dollar, approaching a two-month low. Four opinion polls from three separate companies have put the campaign for Britain to leave the EU in front of the “Remain” camp. A gauge of the pound’s anticipated volatility over the next two weeks — a period that includes the June 23 referendum — climbed to the highest on record. “Risk sentiment has taken a beating with volatility up partly on latest Brexit polls still showing the U.K. is on course to quit the European Union,” said Ray Attrill, co-head of currency strategy at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Sydney. “Amid all of this, the yen continues to demonstrate its preeminent safe-haven characteristics.” Japan’s currency strengthened 0.5 percent, nearing its highest level since 2014. Against the euro, Japan’s currency rose for a sixth day, gaining 1 percent. China’s yuan weakened in Shanghai to within 0.2 percent of a five-year low reached in January, when a slide in the currency heightened concern about the health of the nation’s economy and spurred a selloff in global stocks and commodities. The MSCI Emerging Market Currency Index dropped 0.5 percent and is down 1.5 percent in four days. Russia’s ruble and South Africa’s rand led declines, declining at least 1.2 percent.

In commodities, commodities followed equity markets lower. Oil fell for a fourth day, with West Texas Intermediate crude sliding 1.6 percent to $48.08 a barrel and Brent dropping 1.5 percent to $49.61. The global oil market surplus is shrinking more quickly than expected and the market will be almost balanced next year as demand rises faster than production, the International Energy Agency said Tuesday. Zinc led a decline in industrial metals, falling 1.7 percent to $2,042.50 a ton. Copper lost 0.4 percent while aluminum gained 0.5 percent after Chinese smelters reached an agreement that could to cut production. Gold dropped 0.4 percent to $1,279.43 an ounce.

 

Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk and Bloomberg

  • Fixed income markets continue to extend, with Bund yields falling below 0% for the first time
  • Equities tumble amid the risk off sentiment, which sees USD/JPY fall below 106.00
  • Highlights Include US Import price index, Business Inventories and Retail sales advance as well as API Crude Oil Inventories
  • Treasuries higher in overnight trading as recent polls in U.K. show “Leave” campaign ahead of “Remain” and that nation’s largest paper comes out in support of a Brexit; Germany’s 10-year government bond yields tumbled below zero for the first time on record.
  • There’s no road map for European authorities facing the prospect of a British exit from their 28-nation union — by design. Officials in Brussels are under orders not to commit any scenarios to paper to avoid alarmist leaks
  • The pound fell toward a two-month low as concern grew that the U.K. will vote to leave the European Union. A gauge of the pound’s anticipated volatility over the next two weeks climbed to the highest on record
  • Banks took 2.46 billion pounds ($3.5 billion) in the first of three extra liquidity operations the Bank of England is holding this month to shore up funding as the U.K. considers its future in the European Union
  • U.K. inflation unexpectedly held at 0.3% in May as rising transport costs were offset by falls in the price of clothing and food. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, remained at 1.2%
  • Spanish and Italian banks scoop up more than half of the money the European Central Bank provides in its regular refinancing operations, signaling that borrowing in financial markets remains difficult or unattractive for them
  • Japan and Australian 10-year yields fell to record lows, extending a global bond market rally. Japan’s benchmark dropped to minus 0.17%. Australia’s slid to 2.05%
  • The Federal Reserve’s liftoff from near-zero interest rates in December sparked angst over how quickly the central bank would start whittling down its $2.5 trillion hoard of Treasuries. It turns out that investors had little cause for concern

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The UK EU referendum is suddenly totally dominant in financial markets. The increased focus comes as the leave campaign has gathered steam as 4 polls yesterday afternoon/evening put the ‘leave’ campaign ahead.

First the Guardian/ICM polls late yesterday afternoon UK time (after the close) reported a six point lead in their phone and online polls. The big story with this poll is that the lead was fairly consistent in both their phone and online polls. The former have tended to favour the ‘remain’ side. Recent polls showing ‘leave’ in the lead were mainly online polls only so this is a major development. Then at around 10pm BST two more polls continued to show a similar trend. A YouGov online survey showed ‘leave’ at 46% with ‘remain’ at 39%, and an ORB phone poll had ‘leave’ at 49% and ‘remain’ at 48% among those certain to vote. If there was a silver lining for ‘remain’ then it can be found in ORB suggesting a 49%/44% split in favour of ‘remain’ amongst all voters.

Events appear to be starting to mirror the Scottish referendum a touch (but perhaps more extreme) where markets were suddenly roiled by a shock poll suggesting ‘leave’ had moved into the lead. In the end this may have motivated those wanted to stay in the Union to vote. One wonders whether such recent polls will have a similar impact. Impossible to tell at this stage.

Asian equities are weak but the polls don’t seem at this stage to have accelerated the downward momentum seen yesterday. The Nikkei is around -1.5% lower as we type. Chinese equities are only around 0.25% lower as they await news tomorrow as to whether they get included in MSCI global indices. US equity futures are flat at the moment but expect the polls to be the focus of attention this morning in Europe and perhaps also that the front page of this morning’s Sun newspaper (the largest circulation in the UK) which has backed the ‘leave’ campaign.

Into the US close we only had the two ICM polls and equities again out-performed stateside but the S&P500 still fell -0.81%. However the real stunner was the 22.78% climb in the VIX from 17.03 at Friday’s close to 22.97 last night. US Equities rarely see such sanguine performance when the VIX climbs by that amount in a day. At least half of the rise followed the two ICM polls and could probably be seen as investors hedging their risk.

Before this European equity markets posted their fourth consecutive day of losses with the STOXX dropping by -1.84%. Every industry group was in negative territory again, with the losses once again led by Banks (-2.93%), Insurance (-2.66%) and Financial Services (-2.52%) sectors as Brexit concerns continued to mount even before the latest poll. The sell-off was once again broad based as only 19 out of the 600 companies in the index ended the day in the green. European credit markets followed suit with iTraxx Main and Crossover widening by +4.2bps and +16.2bps as both spreads hit their widest levels in three months.

At the other end of the risk spectrum, German 10Y yields inched marginally higher to 0.024% (+0.3bps) after touching all time lows yesterday. Meanwhile UK 10Y Gilt yields continued to drop, falling to 1.21% (-2.3bps) on the day.

Sterling faced a roller coaster ride on the day, swinging from an early low of 1.4116 to an intraday high of 1.4302 as speculation in the market falsely anticipated a ‘remain’ lead in the latest ICM poll before declining again to 1.4230 (-0.19%) after the actual correct ICM poll results were released. We’re at $1.4187 this morning after the additional polls.

Our Chief UK Economist George Buckley examines some of the latest issues surrounding the vote while also discussing some of the logistics of the actual day of the vote.

Staying with Europe I wanted to highlight a hard hitting piece by our Head of Research and Chief Economist David Folkerts-Landau suggesting that the ECB has seen policy gone awry with the need for them to change direction. He suggests that after seven years of ever-looser monetary policy there is increasing evidence that following the current dogma, broad-based quantitative easing and negative interest rates, risks the long-term stability of the eurozone. David believes that it is already clear that lower and lower interest rates and ever larger purchases are confronting the law of decreasing returns but they still push policy to further extremes. This causes mis-allocations in the real economy that become increasingly hard to reverse without even greater pain. Worse, by appointing itself the eurozone’s “whatever it takes” saviour of last resort, the ECB has allowed politicians to sit on their hands with regard to growth-enhancing reforms and necessary fiscal consolidation. Thereby ECB policy is threatening the European project as a whole for the sake of short-term financial stability. The longer policy prevents the necessary catharsis, the more it contributes to the growth of populist or extremist politics. The piece argues that in its fight against the spectres of deflation and unanchored inflation expectations the ECB’s monetary policy has already become too loose. Hence, they believe the ECB should start to prepare a reversal of its policy stance. The expected increase in headline inflation to above one per cent in the first quarter of 2017 should provide the opportunity for signalling a change. A returning to market-based pricing of sovereign risk will incentivise governments to begin growth-friendly reforms and to tackle fiscal stability. He thinks flagging the move should dampen adverse reactions in financial markets. David concludes by suggesting that normalising rates would be seen as a positive signal by consumers and corporate investors. The longer the ECB persists with unconventional monetary policy, the greater the damage to the European project will be.

On the subject of ECB purchases yesterday we learnt that they purchased €348mn on their first day of corporate bond purchases last Wednesday. They were the only day’s purchases that would have settled before Friday’s reporting cut-off and only includes secondary. Obviously one has to be cautious about extrapolating one day of data, especially as they probably knew this one particular day would be a focal point until more data was collected. Having said this, the high number helps confirm our expectations that the ECB plans to conduct meaningful corporate bond purchases making us more confident that our ‘over €5bn/month’ forecast (average with big ranges over the holiday season) is achievable in the early stages at least, notwithstanding anomalies around the upcoming summer months. We probably won’t know until later in the year if they are starting to struggle to maintain a high initial run rate.

After a quiet day yesterday in terms of data, we have some interesting numbers due today. We’ll see the latest May inflation data for the UK with the CPI (expected +0.3% mom; +0.1% previous), RPI (expected +0.3% mom; 0.1% previous) and PPI (expected +0.3% mom; +0.4% previous) numbers due – all of which should be watched closely ahead of the BoE meeting on Thursday. We will also get the final May CPI numbers for Spain (expected +0.5% mom; +0.5% previous). Following that we also have the April industrial production numbers out for the Euro area (expected +0.8%; -0.8% previous).

Over in the US, we will see the NFIB Small Business Optimism index for May which is expected to be unchanged over the previous month (expected 93.6). Following that we have the retail sales number for May that is expected to clock in at +0.3% mom (+1.3% previous) and will likely be the most closely watched release since payrolls. Aside from that we will also see the import price index number for May which is expected to come in at +0.7% mom (+0.3% previous).

However everything is starting to be overshadowed by Brexit fears.

END

ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late  MONDAY night/ TUESDAY morning: Shanghai closed UP 9.117 POINTS OR 0.32% ON A LAST HR RESCUE/ /Hang Sang closed DOWN 125.46 OR 0.61%. The Nikkei closed DOWN 160.18 POINTS OR 1.00% Australia’s all ordinaires  CLOSED DOWN 2.02% Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.5932 /Oil FELL to 48.19 dollars per barrel for WTI and 49.54 for Brent. Stocks in Europe ALL IN THE RED . Offshore yuan trades  6.6026 yuan to the dollar vs 6.5932 for onshore yuan.THE SPREAD BETWEEN ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE NARROWS A BIT 

FIRST  REPORT ON JAPAN  SOUTH KOREA AND CHINA

a) JAPAN ISSUES

 

b) REPORT ON CHINA

end

EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

The big story of the day:  The UK Telegraph newspaper urges British citizens to vote for a BREXIT:

 

(courtesy zero hedge)

Brexit Odds Hit Record High After Biggest UK Newspaper Urges Brits To Vote “Leave”

This weekend saw the ‘upper/middle-class’ Telegraph newspaper break ranks with the British establishment and suggest Brexit is the way to go. Today, we see more mainstream media mutiny as the ‘working-class’ Sun newspaper (owned by Murdoch and the largest UK newspaper) “urges everyone to vote Leave. We must set ourselves free from dictatorial Brussels,” in the looming EU Referendum. While polls have been steadily increasing in Brexit likelihood, many have clung to the hope that bookies odds remained lower… until now, asLadbrokes just reported Brexit chances hit an all-time high of 43%.

As The Sun writes, we are about to make the biggest ­political decision of our lives. The Sun urges everyone to vote LEAVE.

We must set ourselves free from dictatorial Brussels.

 

Throughout our 43-year membership of the European Union it has proved increasingly greedy, wasteful, bullying and breathtakingly incompetent in a crisis.

 

Next Thursday, at the ballot box, we can correct this huge and ­historic mistake.

 

It is our last chance. Because, be in no doubt, our future looks far bleaker if we stay in.

 

Outside the EU we can become richer, safer and free at long last to forge our own destiny — as America, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and many other great democracies already do. And as we were the first to do centuries ago.

 

If we stay, Britain will be engulfed in a few short years by this relentlessly expanding ­German dominated federal state.

 

For all David Cameron’s witless assurances, our powers and values WILL be further eroded.

 

Staying in will be worse for immigration, worse for jobs, worse for wages and worse for our way of life.

 

Greece is bankrupt.

 

Italy is in danger of going the same way, with even more disastrous consequences.

 

In Spain, 45 per cent of those under 25 are out of work.

 

And numerous even poorer and worse-governed countries are now joining the EU.

 

To remain means being powerless to cut mass immigration which keeps wages low and puts catastrophic pressure on our schools, hospitals, roads and housing stock.

 

In every way, it is a bigger risk.

 

The Remain campaign, made up of the corporate establishment, arrogant europhiles and foreign banks, have set out to terrify us all about life outside the EU.

 

Their “Project Fear” strategy predicts mass unemployment, soaring interest rates and inflation, plummeting house prices, even world war.

 

The Treasury, Bank of England, the IMF and world leaders have all been wheeled out by Downing Street to add their grim warnings.

 

Nonsense! Years ago the same politicians and economists issued apocalyptic predictions about our fate if we didn’t join the euro.

 

Thank God we stopped that. The single currency’s stranglehold has since ruined the EU’s poorer nations and cast millions on the dole.

 

We are told we cannot be in the single market without accepting all the rules, free movement of people included.

 

If so, let’s leave it and, using our enormous clout as the world’s fifth biggest economy, strike great trade deals with the other 85 per cent of the world.

 

And pick and choose the best migrants from the whole world.

 

If we stay in the EU, as Cameron wants, we will finally give up any chance of controlling our population. Cameron admits it.

 

Vote Leave, and we will reassert our sovereignty — embracing a future as a self-governing, powerful nation envied by all.

 

We will re-establish the basic principle that we are governed by politicians we elect or eject every five years, not foreign bureaucrats.

 

The Sun has campaigned relentlessly against the ever-expanding superstate.

 

But the EU cannot reform.

 

Remain has conducted a deceitful campaign. It has been nasty, cynical, personally abusive and beneath the dignity of Britain.

 

Our country has a glorious history.

 

This is our chance to make Britain even greater, to recapture our democracy, to preserve the values and culture we are rightly proud of.

 

A VOTE FOR LEAVE IS A VOTE FOR A BETTER BRITAIN.

*  *  *

And Brexit odds have surged to record highs…

The trend is not David Cameron’s friend…

 

Can you spot the moment the trend changed?

 

Maybe this will help…

*  *  *

Put another way…

end

Late last night, French anti terror police surround a man of Muslim descent who ended up killing a policeman and his wife who is also a member of the police force:

(courtesy zero hedge)

Two stories

First:

 

French Anti-Terror Police Surround Location Of Man Who Killed Policeman, Took Hostages

Update: the police have raided the location where the suspect has taken the wife and son of a killed policeman, and have “neutralized” him. According to the interior ministry, the wife has been tragically killed but the child is safe.

The details about the assailant and his motives remain unknown as of this moment.

* * *

It may well be nothing, but at a time when focus on any potential terrorist activity is at an unprecedented high, it is worth noting that moments ago the AFP reported that French anti-terror police has surrounded a house used by a man who allegedly killed a policemen and then took hostages in the Paris suburb of Magnanville.

@AFP – Police source says man holed up in Paris suburb home with hostages after killing policeman

As BNO News adds, the French police have surrounded a residence in Magnanville, just outside of Paris, where a family is being held hostage after the killing of a police officer. Only few details were immediately available.

The incident began at around 8:30 p.m. local time on Monday when a man approached a police officer outside his house in Magnanville and killed him.  The 45-year-old officer was attacked while returning home from work at about 9:00 p.m. local time, AFP reported, citing a source. According to RFI, the attacker then took the officer’s wife and son hostage in the home.

The ‘Elite Raid’ police officers were on the scene and a security perimeter was established, the report said.

A motive was not known but Reuters France reported: “Some neighbors believe hearing Islamist slogans proffered by the abuser.”

By 11:30 p.m., hostage negotiators had been able to make contact with the suspect, according to an interior ministry spokesman. He provided no details about a possible motive for the killing and hostage-taking, but the elite police unit RAID is at the scene.

The police officer who was killed was identified by local media as 40-year-old commander Jean-Baptiste Salvaing. It is believed the suspect may have been a neighbor of the victim.

Magnanville is located in Yvelines, about 50 kilometers (31 miles) northwest of Paris.

This is a developing story.

Second story:

(courtesy zero hedge)

(courtesy zero hedge)

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings/TUESDAY morning 7:00 am

Euro/USA   1.1225 DOWN .0062 ( STILL REACTING TO USA FAILED POLICY

USA/JAPAN YEN 105.89  DOWN 0.284 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/SIGNALS U TURN WITH INCREASED NEGATIVITY IN NIRP/JAPAN OUT OF WEAPONS TO FIGHT ECONOMIC DISASTER

GBP/USA 1.4133 DOWN.0071 (HUGE THREAT OF BREXIT)

USA/CAN 1.2852 UP .0022

Early THIS TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 62 basis points, trading now WELL above the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1225; Europe is still reacting to deflation, announcements of massive stimulation (QE), a proxy middle east war, and the ramifications of a default at the Austrian Hypo bank, an imminent default of Greece, Glencore, Nysmark and the Ukraine, along with rising peripheral bond yield further stimulation as the EU is moving more into NIRP, and NOW THE USA’S NON tightening by FAILING TO RAISE THEIR INTEREST RATE / Last night the Shanghai composite  CLOSED UP 9.117 POINTS OR 0.32 ON A LAST HR RESCUE%  / Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 125.46 OR 0.60%      / AUSTRALIA IS LOWER BY 2.02%/ EUROPEAN BOURSES ARE ALL IN THE RED  as they start their morning/

We are seeing that the 3 major global carry trades are being unwound. The BIGGY is the first one;

1. the total dollar global short is 9 trillion USA and as such we are now witnessing a sea of red blood on the streets as derivatives blow up with the massive rise in the rise in the dollar against all paper currencies and especially with the fall of the yuan carry trade. The emerging market which house close to 50% of the 9 trillion dollar short is feeling the massive pain as their debt is quite unmanageable.

2, the Nikkei average vs gold carry trade ( NIKKEI blowing up and the yen carry trade HAS BLOWN up/and now NIRP)

3. Short Swiss franc/long assets blew up ( Eastern European housing/Nikkei etc.

These massive carry trades are terribly offside as they are being unwound. It is causing global deflation ( we are at debt saturation already) as the world reacts to lack of demand and a scarcity of debt collateral. Bourses around the globe are reacting in kind to these events as well as the potential for a GREXIT>

The NIKKEI: this MONDAY morning: closed DOWN 160.18 POINTS OR 1.00% 

Trading from Europe and Asia:
1. Europe stocks ALL IN THE RED AS  THEY START THEIR DAY

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / : Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 125.46 POINTS OR 0.60% . ,Shanghai CLOSED UP 9.117 POINTS OR .32% / Australia BOURSE IN THE RED: /Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED IN THE RED /India’s Sensex IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: $1282.80

silver:$17.31

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.583% !!! DOWN 4 in basis points from MONDAY night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%. The 30 yr bond yield RISES to 2.399 DOWN 4 in basis points from MONDAY night. (SPREAD GOES AGAINST THE BANKS)

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 94.82 UP 45 CENTS from MONDAY’s close.(Now below resistance at a DXY of 100.)

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

END

And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS

Portuguese 10 year bond yield:  3.38% UP 16 in basis points from MONDAY

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -0.155% up 1/5  in   basis points from MONDAY

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD:1.56%  UP  6 IN basis points from MONDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.50  UP 6 IN basis points from MONDAY

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 5 points lower than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: -004% DOWN 2 FULL  BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/3:30 PM

Euro/USA 1.1204 DOWN .0083 (Euro =DOWN 83 basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/reacting to dovish YELLEN/ANOTHER FALL IN USA;YEN CROSS TODAY

USA/Japan: 106.02 DOWN .160 (Yen UP 16 basis points )

Great Britain/USA 1.4106 DOWN.0098 ( Pound DOWN 98 basis points/(HUGE BREXIT CONCERN)

USA/Canada 1.2851- UP 0.0022 (Canadian dollar DOWN 22 basis points  AS OIL FELL  (WTI AT $48.50).

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This afternoon, the Euro was DOWN by 83 basis points to trade at 1.1204

The Yen ROSE to 106.02 for a GAIN of 16 basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/

The pound was DOWN 98 basis points, trading at 1.4106( BREXIT FEARS INCREASE DRAMATICALLY )

The Canadian dollar FELL by 22 basis points to 1.2800, WITH WTI OIL AT:  $48.50

The USA/Yuan closed at 6.5930/

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.155% UP 1/5  IN BASIS  points in yield/

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield: DOWN 1/2 IN basis points from MONDAY at 1.6130% //trading well below the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)

USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.427 DOWN 1 in basis points on the day ( HUGE POLICY ERROR)

BANKS NEED THE LONGER BOND HIGHER IN YIELD: INSTEAD THE SPREAD LESSENS.

Your closing USA dollar index, 94.91 UP 52 CENTS  ON THE DAY/4 PM

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY

London:  CLOSED DOWN 121.44 OR 2.01%
German Dax :CLOSED DOWN 138.24 OR  1.43%
Paris Cac  CLOSED DOWN 96.69  OR 2.29%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 177.10 OR 2.13%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 350.52 OR 2.11%

The Dow was DOWN 57.66  points or 0.33%

NASDAQ DOWN 4.89 points or 0.10%
WTI Oil price; 48.50 at 4:30 pm;

Brent Oil: 49.79

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE CROSS:  65.95 (ROUBLE DOWN 34/100 ROUBLES PER DOLLAR FROM YESTERDAY) AS THE PRICE OF BRENT FELL AND WTI FELL

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES TO -.004%  FOR THE 10 YR BOND

.

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today

Closing Price for Oil, 5 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

 

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 5 PM:47.90

BRENT: 49.30

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.613%

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 94.92 UP 53 cents

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.4097 down 0.0104

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: -.001%

 

END

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

Trading Today in Graph form;  VERY IMPORTANT FOR YOU TO VIEW ALL THE CHARTS TODAY

Stocks Plunge Most In 4 Months As Yuan Turmoils To 5-Year Lows

Stallone plays Janet Yellen (sarah is ‘the market’) ahead of tomorrow…

 

Bunds joining the Swiss and Japanese in negative 10Y yields land was perhaps the biggest news today…

 

And the market now sees a higher risk of a rate cut tomorrow than a rate hike..

 

Which is ironic since US equities are now unchanged since The Fed raised rates in December…

 

But European stocks won’t stop falling… Portugal, Spain, and Italy down 10% in June so far

 

Led by the big banks at record lows…

 

And counterparty risk and funding markets are beginning to stress…

 

As Brexit odds soar to record highs…

 

Yuan plunged to new 5 year lows.. along with US Treasury curve… as stocks ignore everything (for now)

 

The last 3 days’ drop in the S&P is the biggest in over 4 months…as S&P cash broke back below the crucial 50-day moving average…

The European close marked the near lows today as stocks bounced…

 

VIX broke above 22 today briefly before sliding back lower (seems like some lifting of hedges and reduction of underlying exposure)…

 

But the afternoon meltup was all about making sure the S&P closed above its 50DMA at 2076…but failed…

 

Since the piss-poor payrolls print, things have gone a little turbo…

 

Credit card companies tumbled on Synchrony concerns on consumer loans…

 

As financials start to catch down to the yield curve… again!

 

Treasury yields rose today after initially plunging but remain lower on the week (though 2Y managed to get back to unch – will The Fed hike?)…

 

The US Dollar Index rose for the 3rd time in 4 days…

 

As Cable plunged to 2 month lows…(down 4 of the last 5 days – biggest 5day drop in 4 months)

 

Despite the USD gains, Gold eked out a small gain today as crude slipped lower (ahead of tonight’s API data)

 

Gold topped $1290, ramping off European opening slam…

 

Finally, we note that Credit Suisse Fear Barometer has soared back near record highs…

 

And CNN’s Fear & Greed index – that we warned about here – has tumbled from “Extreme Greed”..

 

 

Charts: Bloomberg

Bonus Chart: A Year ago, China was in chaos as MSCI declined to include the country’s stock market in its index… this time China has crushed vol…

 

Bonus Bonus Chart: It’s different this time… for now…

end

 

Retail sales growth in the uSA tumbles. There is not a hope that the USA will raise rates:

(courtesy zero hedge)

 

 

Retail Sales Growth Slows As ‘Home-Buying’-Proxy Tumbles

Following April’s gas-price-surge-driven spike in retail sales (by the most in 13 months), May and June have seen various sections of the retailing world collapse, as we detailed here, and growth slowed accordingly with a 0.5% rise MoM (though beating expectations of a 0.3% rise). Before everyone breaks out the champagne for the new recovery, however, we note that the biggest contributor to May’s gains was a 2.1% jump in gasoline station spending – which is “unequivocally bad” right?

YoY growth in retail sales slowed to just 2.5% as building materials and garden supplies centers (home-buying proxy) declined notably by 1.8% in the month.

Alas, escape velocity not achieved:

 

The breakdown shows spending at gasoline stations surge but home-buying-proxy “building materials” declined sharply:

 

In fact, looking at just building materials – an advance proxy for housing demand – it appears any latent demand for new home-building/buying has flipped.

 

Of course, this is government-adjusted data. The market has a different take…

 

Finally, we note that non-store retailers (online retailers such as Amazon) now account for more than 10% of US retail sales in April and May.

Charts: Bloomberg

end
Business inventories surge as well as the most important indicator, business inventories/sales ratio.  That ratio is at recessionary lows; 1..40
(courtesy zero hedge)

Business Inventories/Sales Ratio Hovers At Recessionary Highs Despite ‘Adjusted’ Car Sales Surge

end
This is interesting:  investors in the the Libyan Investment Authority is suing Goldman Sachs with 9 disputed trades conducted in 2008.  As we have pointed out to you on many occasions, Goldman Sachs would take the opposite side and always wins.
(courtesy zero hedge)

end

 

I have been highlighting Marko’s brilliance in predicting where markets will flow whether up or down. This man has been right 100% of the time.  Today, he is throwing caution into the winds as he states that the next turmoil is options expiry this Friday:

(courtesy zero hedge)

 

Speak of the quant devil: only earlier today we were referencing the most recent warning by JPM’s quant guru, Marko Kolanovic, and lo and behold, just minutes later the man with the impeccable record of picking market inflection point released a new report which contains his most dire market forecast yet for 2016.

Here are his latest comments with the key sections bolded by us:

Over the past month, the market rose despite mixed fundamental data, weak seasonal patterns, and nearing risk from catalysts such as Brexit. In our view, recent gains did not have much justification in fundamentals or investors’ psychology (‘climbing a wall of worry’) but were significantly driven by inflows from systematic strategies. Our analysis suggests that most of the technical buying is now exhausted and leverage in the system is high. Convexity of option market makers have also turned negative, supporting higher realized volatility in the near future. As we analyze below, other important market participants – pension funds, hedge funds, corporates (buybacks), retail investors and foreign investors – are less likely to provide significant support for the market near term. The weak technical, seasonal, and flow trends pose elevated downside risk for equities, in our view.

Kolanovic then breaks down technical exposure, and fund flows in a way only he can:

S&P 500 realized volatility (e.g., 3 months) is now at its lowest point since the summer of 2014. In addition to comfort provided by central banks, option-related flows over the past 2 months were suppressing market realized volatility and contributed to the buildup of leverage in systematic strategies.As a result, Volatility Targeting portfolios and Risk Parity strategies likely run near record historical levels of equity exposure. With equity momentum turning positive a week ago (across short-, medium- and long-term lookback windows) for S&P 500, trend following strategies (CTAs) are also net long equities. However, the CTA equity exposure is not high as the signal is not robust and momentum signals in Japan and European equities are negative. Figure 1 shows our estimate of total equity exposure across various systematic strategies over the past year. High levels of equity exposure, currently in the ~90th historical percentile, indicate high market risk posed by a potential increase of market volatility. Equity exposure of Hedge Funds is also above average – the equity beta of a broad HF benchmark (HFRXGL) is in the ~65th percentile, and equity exposure of Long-Short Hedge Funds is in the ~60th historical percentile. While Hedge Funds do have room to increase equity exposure, they are by no means underinvested.

But while Kolanovic’s recent bearishness is hardly new, where the JPM quant stands out is with his amazing ability to explain the key catalysts that catalyze major market inflection points. He has done that this time as well, and in this case Kolanovic says that the driver for a spike in volatility will be $1 trillion in expiring S&P 500 options.This also explains yesterday’s unprecedented move in the VIX higher, which however was oddly enough not met with a matching drop in the S&P, which recall closed the day down only 0.8%.

About ~$1,000Bn of S&P 500 options expire this week. The gamma imbalance turned towards puts yesterday ($9bn per 1% currently), and this will likely push realized volatility higher near term. Post expiry, clients are likely to roll put strikes higher, which will also be supportive of higher volatility. Yesterday’s large move on the VIX indicates short gamma exposure of dealers on VIX products as well.

Further risk comes from the dramatic slowdown in corporate buybacks in recent months, which will no longer provide a buffer in case of a selloff:

Over the past few years, Corporate Buybacks provided significant support for US equity markets.Close to ~$2,000bn of stocks were repurchased by corporates since 2013. However, the announced buybacks are now slowing down at a dramatic pace. On a trailing 12-month basis, announced buybacks dropped by $250bn (~40% drop). Given that on average it takes ~6 quarters to execute, this may translate into ~$40bn per quarter of reduced demand for equities. Figure 2 plots S&P 500 levels against the amount of announced buybacks. Our view is that the impact of the buyback slowdown has not yet reached the market. In fact, executed buybacks picked up in Q4 2015 and Q1 2016 as accelerated share repurchase (ASR) programs took advantage of market selloffs. That added ~$30bn of demand for stocks during market selloffs and helped stabilize the market in September and February (alongside a reduction of secondary offerings of ~$35bn). With ASRs exhausted, the dynamics for equities is less favorable. The striking divergence between the S&P 500 price and buyback slowdown (shown in Figure 2) also point to increased equity risk.

* * *

That’s the bad news. Now it gets worse, because after dispensing with the technicals, Kolanovic proceeds to muse somewhat philosophically over a scenario that would presage a far worse outcome than a mere 10-20% decline in stock prices. Namely, a world where central bankers lose control.

Central Bank Alchemy: In recent years, central banks across the world were lowering rates, buying assets, and pushing investors into riskier assets in an attempt to boost growth. Recent bond and currency price trends in Japan show some success in this alchemy: the government is issuing bonds and central bank is buying most of the issuance. While this is dilutive to private bond holders and increases credit and inflation risk, both bonds and Yen are appreciating at the same time. This appears to create value out of nothing (and achieves what medieval alchemy could not).

 

The ECB has been recently extending purchases to speculative bonds (e.g., Telecom Italia, which is speculative grade according to Moody’s and S&P), and pushing rates deeper into negative territory, defying investment logic. In recent years, the Fed has managed to condition US equity investors that ‘bad fundamental developments’ may be good for risky assets, as we could recently see with the lack of market reaction to May’s disappointing payroll report. In addition, its recent interpretation of trends in macroeconomic data could be seen as somewhat controversial (Fed: “ … expect that the positive forces supporting employment growth and higher inflation will continue to outweigh the negative ones,” June 6, 2016). Figure 4 and Figure 5 show recent deterioration in Fed labor market conditions index, US inflation breakevens (5Y5Y) as well as US Services PMI business expectation index.

 

The conclusion:

While we believe that fundamentals are likely pointing to downside risk for equities (and perhaps bonds as well), it is possible that central banks continue to dominate prices of risky assets prices and bonds. For this reason, we continue to recommend a risk barbell portfolio in which an investor holds both reflationary assets (EM equities, commodities, Value assets) and hedging assets for the possibility that central banks lose their grip on asset price action.

Needless to say, when central banks do “lose grip on asset price action”, only one part of the “barbell” will work: the one that involves assets that have zero counterparty risk, assets which over the past 5,000 years have been dubbed to be “barbarous relics” and yet whose value has outlived each and every central planner in the history of the world.

end
This is going to hurt the HFT boys as they now have competition on their platform:
(courtesy zero hedge)

A Rare Loss For The HFT Lobby? SEC Staff Recommends Approval Of IEX Exchange Application

end

 

Here is another good Bellwether on the state of the consumer:  Credit card company, Synchrony Financial, a spin out from General Electric  expects to write off rates equal to 20 to 30 basis points over the next 12 months;  why? They find that the in general, the consumer is having “difficulty in its ability to pay”

(courtesy Synchrony Financial zero hedge)

 

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