July 20/Silver OI sets another record high at 219,206 despite silver’s fall yesterday/Gold open interest rises to 617,069 for a gain of 2402 contracts/ Again the front July month sees a huge amount of gold standing at 16.808 tonnes/Turkish lira crashes as Erdogan embarks on a new 3 month emergency/ S & P downgrades Turkey to BB with negative outlook/HSBC’s head of global trading in FX arrested in NY (criminal probe on manipulation of Libor)

Gold:1318.80 down $12.70

Silver 19.58  DOWN 40 cents

In the access market 5:15 pm


Gold: 1315.80

Silver: 19.40


For the July gold contract month,  we had a huge 269 notices served upon for 26,900 ounces. The total number of notices filed so far for delivery:  5329 for 532,900 oz or 16.575 tonnes

In silver we had 38 notices served upon for 190,000 oz.  The total number of notices filed so far this month for delivery:  2106 for 10,530,000 oz

Silver today at the comex recorded an all time record for open interest and yet the price is 29 dollars cheaper. It defies commodity law!


Last night, I was up in the early hours when I saw the raid orchestrated by our crooks.  I took a look at the daily bulletin which is an estimated OI and then I knew the reason for the raid:

  1. the high open interest for silver (and a record high) despite silver being 29 dollars cheaper when it had its former high OI in 2011.
  2. the front July contract month in gold saw a huge gain in an amount standing.  Now we have close to 17 tonnes standing in this a non active month. I wonder what August will bring…

and that is the reason for today’s raid!


Today no doubt was the beginning of options expiry week where we will see continual pelting of gold/silver until the end of the month.


I would like to urge you, investors not to play the comex as it is a crooked casino. However if you do play, you must take physical delivery. If everybody takes delivery on these crooks, the game will be over in a hurry.

Let us have a look at the data for today


Several months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today, the total inventory rests at 307.70 tonnes for a gain of 5  tonnes over that period


In silver, the total open interest ROSE BY 1597 contracts UP to 219,206, AND A NEW ALL TIME RECORD. THE OI ROSE IN CONTRAST TO THE  PRICE OF SILVER WHICH FELL BY 7 CENTS IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING.In ounces, the OI is still represented by just over 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.096 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 157% of annual global silver production (ex Russia &ex China).

In silver we had 38 notices served upon for 140,000 oz.

In gold, the total comex gold ROSE BY 2,402 contracts as gold rose in price YESTERDAY to the tune of $3.10. The total gold OI stands at 617,069 contracts.


With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:


we had no changes in gold inventory./

Total gold inventory rest tonight at: 965.22 tonnes


we had no changes into the SILVER INVENTORY TO THE SLV

Inventory rests at 348.580 million oz.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in silver ROSE by 105 contracts UP to 219,206 as the price of silver FELL BY 7 cents with YESTERDAY’S trading. The gold open interest ROSE by 2402 contracts up to 617,069 as  the price of gold ROSE by $3.10  YESTERDAY.

(report Harvey).


2 a) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark OByrne/zerohedge


 i)Late  TUESDAY night/WEDNESDAY morning: Shanghai closed DOWN 8.69 POINTS OR 0.29%/ /Hang Sang closed UP 209.28 OR 0.97%. The Nikkei closed DOWN 41.42 OR 0.25%/  Australia’s all ordinaires  CLOSED UP 0.58% Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.6755 ON A LITTLE REVALUATION /Oil FELL to 44.64 dollars per barrel for WTI and 46.70 for Brent. Stocks in Europe ALL IN THE GREEN. Offshore yuan trades  6.68161 yuan to the dollar vs 6.6755 for onshore yuan.THE SPREAD BETWEEN ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE NARROWS CONSIDERABLY 



In a delayed reaction, the USA/Yen shoots up to 107.28 as Kyodo plans on a 20 trilion yen stimulus plan.  And gold goes down on this money printing!

( zero hedge)



The IMF are now called “clowns” after they now admit that England will grow much faster with a BREXIT

( zero hedge)


i)The total of Turkish civilians now total 50,000 as Turkey is set to unveil ’emergency measures today:

( zero hedge)

ii)a The Turkish lira is crashing to 3.04 to the dollar accompanied by a high risk of default as witnessed by the credit default swaps: Turmoil in Turkey

( zero hedge)

iib) Then S & P lowered the boom on Turkey by downgrading the country to BB with a negative outlook; the Turkish lira then tumbled to a new all time low:

(courtesy zero hedge)

iii)This is a little terrifying:  American nukes are just not safe in Turkey anymore!

( FP/Jeffery Lewis)

iv)Here is another odd inconsistency with regards to the staged coup:


( zerohedge)


ii)A must read from egon Von Greyerz on the six major events that will change history!

( Von Greyerz)


More unexpected gasoline inventory build on top of huge production rise as well as buildup in Cushing causes havoc in WTI

(courtesy zero hedge)



BMG exposes the weakness of “paper gold ”

( GATA/)

ii) The Japanese TOCOM goes physical:

(courtesy Dave Kranzler/IRD)



i)An excellent Bellwether :  trucking in the uSA

( Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest  ROSE TO AN OI level of 617,069 for a  GAIN of 2402 contracts AS  THE PRICE OF GOLD ROSE BY $3.10 with respect to YESTERDAY’S TRADING We are now in the non active month of July. Somebody big is continually standing for the gold metal as July is generally a poor delivery month. The open interest for the front July contract stands at 344 for a GAIN of 275 contracts. We had 10 notices filed on yesterday, so we gained 285 contracts or an additional 28,500 gold ounces that will stand for delivery in this non active month of July. We  are again witnessing the same scenario as in May and June whereby the front delivery month increases in OI standing for metal or a slight contraction.  The next big active contract month is August and here the OI FELL by 12,019 contracts down to 294,738  as this month continues its wind down until first day notice for the August contract, Friday,July 29/2016: less than  2 weeks away.  The estimated volume today (which is just comex sales during regular business hours of 8:20 until 1:30 pm est) was very good at 324,748. The confirmed volume  yesterday (which includes the volume during regular business hours + access market sales the previous day was FAIR at 190,172 contracts.The comex is not in backwardation.
Today, we had a huge 269 notices filed for 26,900 oz in gold
And now for the wild silver comex results. Total silver OI ROSE by 105 contracts from 219101  up to 219206.  We are now at an all time record high for silver open interest set today (219,206). The front active delivery month is July and here the OI fell BY 239 contracts down to 428. We had 239 notices served on YESTERDAY so we neither lost nor gained any silver  contracts that will  stand for delivery. The next non active month of August saw it’s OI rise by 10 contracts up to 477. The next big active month is September and here the OI ROSE by 249 contracts UP to 159,144. The volume on the comex today (just comex) came in at 61,060 which is excellent. The confirmed volume yesterday (comex + globex) was fair at 37,995. Silver is not in backwardation. London is in backwardation for several months.
We had 38 notices filed for 190,000 oz. in silver JULY contract month
:INITIAL standings for JULY
July 20.
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz   nil OZ
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz  nil
1,318.15  oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz 
 36.050.000 oz
No of oz served (contracts) today
269 notices 
26,900 oz
No of oz to be served (notices)
75 contracts
7500 oz
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
5329 contracts (532,90o oz)
(16.575 tonnes)
Total accumulative withdrawals  of gold from the Dealers inventory this month   NIL
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month   563,171.8 OZ

Today we had 0 dealer DEPOSIT
total dealer deposit: NIL   0z
Today we had 0 dealer withdrawals:
total dealer withdrawals:  nil oz
We had 3 customer deposit:
i) Into Scotia; 16,075.000 oz ( 500 kilobars)
ii) Into Brinks:  19,975.000 oz ???
not divisible by 32.15 and not kilobars/one complete farce!
Total customer deposit: 36,050.000
Today we had 1 customer withdrawal:
i) Out of Scotia:  1318.15 oz
Total customer withdrawals 1818.15   oz
Today we had 0  adjustments:
Today, 0 notices was issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 269 contracts of which 0 notices was stopped (received) by JPMorgan dealer and 255 notices was stopped (received)  by JPMorgan customer account. 
To calculate the initial total number of gold ounces standing for the JULY contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (5329) x 100 oz  or 532,900 oz , to which we  add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY  (344 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (269) x 100 oz   x 100 oz per contract equals 540,400 oz, the number of ounces standing in this active month. 
Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY. contract month:
No of notices served so far (5329) x 100 oz  or ounces + {OI for the front month (344) minus the number of  notices served upon today (269) x 100 oz which equals 540,400 oz standing in this non   active delivery month of JULY  (16.808 tonnes).
We  gained 6100 gold ounces that will stand for metal in this non active month of July.
Since the comex allows GLD shares to be used for settling, it may take quite a while for the physical gold to enter the comex vaults.  So far I have seen little evidence of any settling of contracts but I will continue to monitor it for you. 
We now have partial evidence of gold settling for last months deliveries We now have  +  6.889 TONNES FOR MAY + 49.09 TONNES FOR JUNE +  15.732 TONNES FOR JULY + 12.3917 tonnes (April) +2.2311 tonnes (March) + 7.99 (total Feb)- .940 (probable delivery on March 1) tonnes -.0434 tonnes (March 11,12,17,18) + March 31: 1.2470 and then  April 1,2: – .0006 tonnes  and last week April 16.3203 and April 22 .(0009 tonnes) + april 29  .205 tonnes + May 5:  3.799 and May 6: 1.607 tonnes –MAY 12  .0003- May 18: 1.5635 tonnes-May 19/   2.535 tonnes-May 27 .0185 – .024 TONNES MAY 31 -jUNE 4: .5044 ; june 10 -.0008 / June 22:0.48 tonnes /June 23: 0489 tonnes, June 24..018; june 29 .036 tonnes; JUNE 30 2.49 /july 1 17.78 tonnes = 46.85 tonnes still standing against 47.653 tonnes available.
 Total dealer inventor 1,532,061.922 tonnes or 47.653 tonnes
Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) =9,927312.843 or 308.800 tonnes 
Several months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today the total inventory rests at 308.80 tonnes for a  gain of 6  tonnes over that period. 



And now for silver
JULY INITIAL standings
 July 20.2016
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 187,312.290 OZ
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
 600,407.24 OZ
No of oz served today (contracts)
(140,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
390 contracts
1,950,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 2106 contracts (10,340,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month  NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal  of silver from the Customer inventory this month  5,242,821.3 oz
today we had 0 deposit into the dealer account
total dealer deposit NIL oz
we had 0 dealer withdrawal:
total dealer withdrawals:  NIL oz
we had 2 customer withdrawals:
i)Out of JPM: 150,004.400oz
II) OUT OF SCOTIA: 37,308.290
Total customer withdrawals: 187,312.29 oz
We had 1 customer deposit:
i)Into HSBC: 600,407.24 oz
total customer withdrawals:600,407.24. oz
 we had 0 adjustments
The total number of notices filed today for the JULY contract month is represented by 239 contracts for 1,195,000  oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at (2106) x 5,000 oz  = 10,530,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY (428) and the number of notices served upon today (38) x 5000 oz equals the number of ounces standing 
Thus the initial standings for silver for the JULY contract month:  2106(notices served so far)x 5000 oz +(428 OI for front month of JULY ) -number of notices served upon today (38)x 5000 oz  equals  12,480,000 oz  of silver standing for the JULY contract month.
We neither lost not gained any silver ounces standing in this active month of July.
Total dealer silver:  28.360 million (close to record low inventory  
Total number of dealer and customer silver:   154.290 million oz (close to a record low)
The total open interest on silver is NOW AT its all time high with the record of 219,206 being set July 20.2016.  The registered silver (dealer silver) is NOW NEAR  multi year lows as silver is being drawn out at both dealer and customer levels and heading to China and other destinations. The shear movement of silver into and out of the vaults signify that something is going on in silver.
And now the Gold inventory at the GLD
July 20./no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 965.22 tonese
July 19/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 965.22 tonnes
July 18./ a good sized deposit of 2.37 tonnes of gld into GLD/this is a paper gold entry/inventory rests at 965.22 tonnese
July 15./no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 962.85 tonnes
July 14/a good sized withdrawal of 2.37 tonnes from the GLD/this would be a “paper withdrawal”/inventory rests tonight at 962.85 tonnes..
July 13/ we had a huge paper withdrawal of 15.98 tonnes of gold from the GLD/inventory rests at 965.22 tonnes.
July 12/we had no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 981.20 tonnes
July 11/no changes in gold inventory at the GLS/Inventory rests at 981.20 tonnes
JULY 8/ A  good sized deposit of 2.91 tonnes into the GLD/Inventory rests at 981.20
July 7/a good sized withdrawal of 4.15 tonnes from the GLD/Inventory rests at 978.29 tonnes (this was nothing but a paper entry/no physical moved)
July 5/no change in inventory/rests tonight at 982.44
July 1/a huge change in the gold inventory/ a deposit of 3.86 tonnes/rests tonight at 953.91 tonnes
JUNE 30/no change in gold inventory /inventory rests tonight at 950.05 tonnes
June 29/ a good sized deposit of 2.67 tonnes/inventory rests at 950.05 tonnes
June 28/ a huge deposit of 13.067 tonnes into inventory/new inventory rests so far at 947.38 tonnes.  This was a paper addition
June 27/a huge deposit of 18.415 tonnes into the GLD inventory/the new inventory rests at 934.313 tonnes.  The addition was a paper addition and not physical
July 20 / Inventory rests tonight at 965.22 tonnes


Now the SLV Inventory
July 20/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 348.580 million oz
July 19/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 348.580 million oz
July 18/no change in silver inventory at he SLV/inventory restss at 348.580 million oz
July 15/ no change in  silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 348.580 million oz
July 14/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 348.580 million oz/
July 13./ a huge addition of 5.187 million oz into silver inventory at the SLV/ this is a paper addition as inventory rests at 348.580 million oz
July 12/ a huge addition of 1.94 million oz into silver inventory at the SLV/a “paper” addition/inventory rests at 343.393 million oz
July 11/no changes in silver inventory/rests tonight at 341.453 million oz
JULY 8/no change in silver inventory/rests tonight at 341.453 million oz
July 7./no change in silver inventory/inventory rests at 341.453 million oz
july 5/no change in silver inventory/inventory rests at 333.554 milllion oz
july 1/no change in silver inventory/inventory rests at 333.544 million oz
JUNE 30/no changes in silver inventory/inventory rests at 333.544 million oz
June 29/ a small deposit of 760,000 oz/Inventory rests tonight at 333.544 million oz/
June 28/no change in silver inventory/rests tonight at 332.784 million oz
June 27/ a small deposit of 570,000 oz in the SLV inventory/Inventory rests at 332.784 million oz
July 20.2016: Inventory 348.580 million oz

NPV for Sprott and Central Fund of Canada

1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative 5.5 percent to NAV usa funds and Negative 5.4% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!!  (the discount is starting to disappear)
Percentage of fund in gold 58.9%
Percentage of fund in silver:39.9%
cash .+1.2%( July 20/2016). 
2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): Premium falls  to -0.21%!!!! NAV (July20/2016) 
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  falls TO  0.30% to NAV  ( July 20/2016)
Note: Sprott silver trust back  into NEGATIVE territory at -.21% /Sprott physical gold trust is back into positive territory at +0.30%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail.



And now your overnight trading in gold,WEDNESDAY MORNING and also physical stories that may interest you:

Trading in gold and silver overnight in Asia and Europe
Mark O’Byrne/David Russell (Goldcore)

IMF Scraps Forecast for Global-Growth Pickup on Brexit Fallout

GoldCore's picture




BMG exposes the weakness of “paper gold’

(courtesy GATA/)


BMG commercial exposes weakness of ‘paper gold’


2:28p ET Tuesday, July 19, 2016

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

In the end it’s a commercial for gold dealer Bullion Management Group in Canada, but getting there is half the fun as it makes the point that “paper gold” really isn’t gold at all. “In case of fire,” the commercial asks, “which would you rather have — a fire extinguisher or a picture of one?” The commercial is 3 minutes and 48 seconds long and it’s posted at YouTube here:


CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.




The Tocom is going to physical gold:

(courtesy Dave Kranzler/IRD)


Japan Is Signalling The End-Game For The U.S.

On a side-note, it’s important to know that late July/early August is seasonally the most quiet part of the year for the biggest eastern hemisphere gold accumulators. And we’re going into the “roll” period, when the bulk of the massive blob of August paper gold “rolls” into December, the next “front month” for Comex Paper gold. Having said that, China has actually slightly increased its gold imports this month. India has been in hibernation since March 1 but it’s biggest seasonal buying period starts in about four weeks. Unless smuggled gold into India is significantly greater in volume than anyone understands, India’s demand will be somewhat price inelastic and its elephantine appetite for gold will have a big impact on the price of gold.

This leads us to Japan. Curiously, Japan announced announced last week that its TOCOMUntitledcommodity exchange (Japan’s less corrupted CME-equivalent) would begin trading physical gold – like the Shanghai Gold Exchange – on July 25th – TOCOM Physical Gold.  It also announced that it would be introducing a delivery-at-settlement option for its current-month gold futures contract. That is, TOCOM gold futures buyers will now have the ability to take delivery of physical gold via TOCOM’s paper gold.

The news of this event was largely muted in the western financial media and even the alternative media blogosphere largely seems to have overlooked the news release. But this is a highly significant development because it signals a subtle shift in Japan’s economic and monetary focus from west to east.  It will also create an big upward price-readjustment in gold and silver.

The significance of Japan’s TOCOM exchange shifting from all fiat paper contracts to a physical gold trading and settlement operation is reinforced by the fact that two days ahead of the announcement it was reported that Tanaka Kikinzoku Group – Japan’s leading precious metals trader, refiner and manufacturer – acquired Swiss-based Metalor Group, one of the world’s largest refiners and supplier of precious metals-related products – Tanaka Buys Metalor.   Furthermore, in March 2015, Japan’s Asahi Holdings – a collector and refiner of precious metals – closed its acquisition of Johnson Matthey’s gold and silver refining business.  JM is one of the leading producers of refined precious metals products, including LBMA-quality 400 oz gold bars.

Now that Asia and Russia are no longer funding the U.S. Treasury debt printing press, the Fed will be forced to begin hyperinflating the money supply to keep the Government funded.  This fact is underscored by the Cleveland Fed President’s – Loretta Mester, a voting member of the FOMC –  recent comment about “helicopter money.”

While the Japanese continue to endorse the U.S. Government’s  use of the yen as a de facto printing press which enables the Fed to manipulate the U.S. stock market and to fund U.S. Treasury’s unrestricted  issuance of debt, they see the proverbial writing on the wall for the western monetary and financial system.  Japan has been quietly pivoting economically toward China for a couple years.

This abrupt transition into the physical precious metals market signals Japan’s move to integrate its financial markets and economic system into the developing eastern bloc monetary system, which appears as if it might eventually be seeded in gold.  It likely signals the end-game for the United States.



Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight




2 Nikkei closed /USA: YEN RISES TO 106.54

3. Europe stocks opened ALL IN THE GREEN    /USA dollar index UP to 97.09/Euro DOWN to 1.1012

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS AT  -.232%     !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 106.54

3c Nikkei now WELL BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI::  44.60  and Brent: 46.70

3f Gold DOWN  /Yen DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa.

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN for Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10 yr bund RISES to +.002%   German bunds BASICALLY negative yields from  10+ years out

 Greece  sees its 2 year rate RISE to 8.37%/: 

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISE to  : 7.96%   (YIELD CURVE NOW  FLAT)

3k Gold at $1320.00/silver $19.60(7:45 am est)   SILVER FINAL RESISTANCE AT $18.50 BROKEN 

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 13/100 in  roubles/dollar) 63.37-

3m oil into the 44 dollar handle for WTI and 46 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation  (already upon us). This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/China forced to do QE!! as it lowers its yuan value to the dollar/GOT a BIG REVALUATION UPWARD from POBC.


30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9871 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0870 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.


3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISES to  +.002%

/German 10+ year rate BASICALLY  negative%!!!


The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”.  Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.572% early this morning. Thirty year rate  at 2.287% /POLICY ERROR)

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)


US Futures Rise To Session Highs, Set For Another Record Open; Global Stocks Jump

After yesterday’s positive close in the Dow Jones, which hasn’t had a losing day since July 7 and which took the series of consecutive green closes to 8 in a row – the longest stretch since 2013 – the index will look to lock in its 9th green day in a row with futures currently trading well in the green. It’s not just the US – equities edged higher in Asia and Europe as positive earnings results from some of the world’s biggest companies countered concern the global economy is losing steam. The dollar strengthened while gold retreated.

The MSCI All Country World Index held near an eight-month high as a gauge of Hong Kong shares was poised to enter a bull market. The yuan had its biggest intra-day jump in a month on speculation the PBOC won’t allow the critical 6.70 barrier to be breached, even as rising odds of a U.S. interest-rate lifted the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index to its highest since May. Oil extended losses below $45 a barrel as gold dropped to this month’s low. The Turkish lira advanced, after earlier sinking to within 0.5 percent of it weakest level on record, before Turkey’s president makes an announcement in the wake of a failed coup.

A three-week run that’s boosted the combined worth of global shares by more than $4.5 trillion has pushed valuations to the highest level in 11 months. Investors are assessing corporate earnings amid concern sluggish global growth will persist after the International Monetary Fund scrapped its forecast for a pickup in the pace of expansion this year. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Microsoft Corp. on Tuesday announced quarterly profits that surpassed analysts’ estimates, something achieved by 77% of the S&P 500 members to have reported so far.

“The rally is losing some momentum as the reporting season heats up,” said Niv Dagan, executive director at Peak Asset Management LLC in Melbourne. “We’re staying cautious and taking a little bit of profit off the table. With the equity rebound stalling, we are really looking for positive momentum from the reporting season” for the next leg up in stocks, he said.

While the reason behind the recent relentless rally remains mostly elusive, with the median stock according to Goldman now trading in its 99% valuation percentile, some have noted familiar catalysts: “expectations for more stimulus has been supportive of equities,” Angus Nicholson of IG Markets told Bloomberg. “Asian markets have been resilient as they’ve been benefiting from capital inflows since the Brexit vote. Hong Kong has been one of the most unloved markets here so it’s catching up. It’s very cheap.”

Following a lackluster Asian session, which saw the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gain 0.1% after earlier falling as much as 0.4%  with the MSCI Hong Kong Index rising 0.8% and has now rebounded more than 20 percent from a three-year low recorded in January, Europe started off on the right foot, with Stoxx Europe 600 up 0.9%, after falling 0.4% in the last session.  BHP Billiton Ltd. dropped 2.9 percent in Sydney after the world’s biggest mining company said iron-ore production fell 7 percent from a year earlier during the last quarter. Futures on the S&P 500 Index were 0.4% higher after the U.S. gauge slipped from an all-time high in the last session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced for an eighth day, its longest rally in three years, and Microsoft rallied in after-hours trading following the release of its results.

In a session with little economic data, all eyes will be on today’s earnings with Morgan Stanley, Intel and American Express among U.S. companies announcing results on Wednesday.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 2166
  • Stoxx 600 up 0.9% to 340
  • FTSE 100 up 0.4% to 6726
  • DAX up 0.7% to 10049
  • German 10Yr yield down 1bp to -0.04%
  • Italian 10Yr yield up less than 1bp to 1.24%
  • Spanish 10Yr yield down less than 1bp to 1.19%
  • S&P GSCI Index up less than 0.1% to 355.4
  • FTSE 100 up 0.4% to 6726
  • DAX up 0.7% to 10049
  • German 10Yr yield down 1bp to -0.04%
  • Italian 10Yr yield up less than 1bp to 1.24%
  • Spanish 10Yr yield down less than 1bp to 1.19%
  • S&P GSCI Index up less than 0.1% to 355.4
  • MSCI Asia Pacific up less than 0.1% to 134
  • US 10-yr yield up less than 1bp to 1.56%
  • Dollar Index up 0.1% to 97.16
  • WTI Crude futures up less than 0.1% to $44.66
  • Brent Futures up 0.4% to $46.83
  • Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,327
  • Silver spot down 0.7% to $19.77

Top Global Headlines

  • Pimco Names Man Group’s Chief Emmanuel Roman as Its New CEO: Roman to replace Doug Hodge, Man Group names Luke Ellis as CEO
  • U.S. Seeks to Seize $1 Billion Assets Tied to 1MDB, NYT Says: Asset seizure may be largest confiscation by Justice Dept
  • Unilever to Buy Dollar Shave in Deal Said Valued at $1 Billion: Dollar Shave founder, CEO Dubin to remain at helm of company
  • Fox Said to Be Negotiating Exit Terms With News Chief Ailes: Talks follow filing of sex harassment case against executive
  • PBOC Seen Overriding Yuan Market Moves to Limit Depreciation: Currency rises most in two weeks on bets China defending 6.7
  • KKR’s Kravis Sees Market Volatility Amid Negative Rates, Brexit: Predicts 20% of London’s financial sector to leave city
  • Trump Goes on Offense as Republicans Try to Move Past Missteps
  • Musk Expects Majority of Holders to Support SolarCity Deal: WSJ
  • Investors Said to Pull $600m From Ackman Funds in 1H: Fortune
  • Brazil’s Supreme Court Overturns WhatsApp Ban
  • Amazon June Comp Sales Up 11.6%, Ebay Up 3.8%: ChannelAdvisor

Looking at regional markets, we start in Asia which traded lower for much of the session, amid a lack of tier-1 data and key speakers in the region, following the choppy trade seen across US indices. Nikkei 225 (-0.2%) suffered from a delayed reaction to its Asian counterparts and caught up with losses following the country’s long weekend, however did find some support and is off its worst levels, as a firmer JPY weighed on exporters. Conversely, ASX 200 (+0.7%) took the impetus from a lacklustre open trade in the green, despite gains being capped by the materials sector after BHP missed on iron ore output estimates. Elsewhere, China’s Hang Seng (+1.0%) is underpinned by broad based gains across the index and saw property developers buoyed by measures to boost borrowing, while significant gains continued to be stifled in the Shanghai Comp (-0.3%) following another mild liquidity injection. Finally, 10yr JGBs traded with slightly higher despite the absence of risk-appetite in Japan whilst a JPY 1.1trl JGB auction saw lower than prior laic and a lower average yield.

Asian Top News

  • Singapore Seeks U.S. Chapter 11 Prowess in Bankruptcy Reform: Includes automatic stay, pre-pack and super-priority lien
  • Fastest-Growing India Fund Says RBI Dove Needed to Sustain Rally: Global holdings of rupee-denominated bonds have jumped in July
  • China’s Curious Craze for Stock Dividends Survives Market Slump: >200 Shenzhen firms have announced stock payouts
  • Emerging Currencies Weaken in Asia on Global Growth Concern: Turkish lira approaches record low as post-coup purge expands

European equities trade in the green this morning (Euro stoxx +1.2%) with price action largely initially dictated by the latest spate of earnings, most notably from the likes of SAP (4.5%) which has subsequently helped the DAX rise above the 10,000 level. However, gains across the region were extended after an improvement in sentiment after the upbeat UK jobs report. In fixed income, Bunds kicked off the session higher with notable underperformance in the short-end ahead of the launch of the 5-yr Bobl auction. However the German benchmark failed to hold onto their gains in the wake of the aforementioned auction, with the weak take up weighing on German paper across the board to see Bunds fall back below 166.50 and into negative territory on the day.

European Top News

  • U.K. Unemployment Declines Below 5% for First Time Since 2005: Employment in March-May rose 176,000 to record high level, unemployment rate fell to 4.9%
  • SAP Profit Tops Estimates as Clients Move to New Software: European revenue grew strongly despite Brexit concerns
  • ASML Sales Rise as Orders for New Machines Begin to Materialize: Chip-machine maker trying to get clients to upgrade factories
  • Nordea CEO Says Turning Point Reached as Outlook Improves: CEO says bank will meet higher CET1 requirement due end 2016

In FX, the lira was 0.2 percent stronger at 3.0355 per dollar, after earlier sinking as much as 0.7 percent. The currency has tumbled about 5 percent since a failed coup attempt on Friday as authorities purged state institutions, the central bank lowered interest rates and Moody’s Investors Service said it may lower the country’s credit rating to junk. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is due to make an announcement on Wednesday that an official said would boost social cohesion and Turkey’s democratic credentials. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index added 0.1 percent, after advancing 0.5 percent to a six-week high in the last session as a report showed new-home construction in the U.S. rose more than economists forecast in June. A Citigroup gauge that tracks the degree to which American data are exceeding projections is at an 18-month high and futures put the chance of a Federal Reserve rate increase this year at 43 percent, up from 9 percent at the start of this month. “The market will recalibrate on Fed rate-hike expectations to price in at least one” this year, said Charlie Lay, a foreign-exchange strategist in Singapore at Commerzbank AG. “That should support the dollar.” The yuan jumped as much as 0.28 percent to 6.6780 per dollar amid speculation China’s central bank is trying to prevent the currency from weakening beyond 6.70, a threshold that was breached this week for the first time since 2010. The People’s Bank of China raised its daily reference rate for its currency on Wednesday, even after the greenback strengthened overnight.

In commodities, crude oil fell 0.3 percent to $44.52 a barrel in New York, after sliding 2.8 percent over the last two trading days. While government data Wednesday is forecast to show supplies fell for a ninth week, stockpiles will still be more than 100 million barrels above the five-year seasonal average. Nickel dropped as much as 1.7 percent in London, retreating from its highest close since October. Copper lost 0.7 percent as China released data showing it boosted output by 7.6 percent in the first half and Barclays Plc forecast there will be a worldwide surplus of the metal every year until 2020.

There’s no major data out in the US today although. Earnings will continue to be a big focus with 21 S&P companies due to report. Morgan Stanley (prior to the open), EBay, American Express and Intel (all after the close) are the highlights while over in Europe we’ve got 10 Stoxx 600 companies due to release their latest numbers

Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk and Bloomberg

  • A strong UK jobs report sees GBP/USD move back towards 1.3200 and the USD pare earlier gains
  • Equities trade firmly in the green, with Bunds in negative territory, weighed on further by a soft German 5y auction
  • Treasuries trading slightly lower and within narrow ranges while European equities rise amid better-than-expected German PPI and U.K. unemployment dropped to 4.9% in the period before the Brexit vote, lowest since 3Q 2005.
  • SocGen’s bond team recently tweaked a longstanding macro model that now shows there’s less than a 1 percent chance U.S. 10-year yields fall below 1.1 percent, especially with the Federal Reserve still intent on raising interest rates
  • Komal S. Sri-Kumar, the economist who predicted the 2016 Treasury market rally when the consensus was for a selloff, says benchmark yields may fall to a record 0.9 percent by the end of the year
  • The yuan advanced the most in two weeks, with the central bank’s daily fixing adding to signs that China’s authorities are prepared to overrule the market to control the currency’s moves
  • Two recent observations by the ECB on output and employment highlight how monetary policy is far from an exact science, underlining the challenge that the institution’s president and his colleagues will face in their two-day meeting starting Wednesday
  • Iran is exploring a return to international debt markets for the first time since 2002, a senior government official said, as the Islamic Republic seeks to finance an economic recovery a year after a historic nuclear deal that offered it a route out of isolation
  • Highlights today include DoE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories and earnings from Intel, QUALCOMM, Morgan Stanley and eBay

* * *

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Earnings and holiday apathy seem to be holding back markets a bit this week ahead of Draghi and the ECB meeting tomorrow. European equities were soft from the off yesterday with the Stoxx 600 and DAX eventually closing -0.41% and -0.81% respectively albeit with summer holiday-esque volumes which were 25% below the usual average. A soft German ZEW survey which included a four-year low for the expectations component didn’t help, while banks were also under pressure after the EU’s highest court backed the EU guidelines preventing taxpayers from bailing out lenders. More on this below.

The afternoon session also saw US equities spend most of it in the red. The S&P 500 eventually closed -0.14% (which believe it or not was the worst performance since July 5th) and had its smallest range for the year in both percentage (0.26%) and points (5.6pts) terms. The Nasdaq (-0.38%) weakened a little bit more with those weak Netflix numbers weighing, although the Dow (+0.14%) did manage to eke out a modest gain into the close after better than expected Johnson & Johnson numbers helped. The other notable earnings report released yesterday came from Goldman Sachs which continued the trend of US Banks exceeding expectations this quarter with the bright spot once again being better than expected performance in fixed income trading. Again though, the beat was amplified by another big cut in analyst expectations leading into the release. While EPS for the quarter came in at $3.72 versus the $3.05 market consensus, this was revised lower from as much as $3.60 in April and $3.80 in March.

There was a bit of focus on the IMF too yesterday after the Fund downgraded its global growth forecast this year and next by one-tenth to 3.1% and 3.4% respectively from the April forecasts. The Fund highlighted that the new forecast assumes that UK and EU officials negotiate a deal that does not lead to a large increase in economic barriers. A severe scenario where talks break down could result in growth slumping to 2.8% in both years. Unsurprisingly then it was the UK which bore the brunt of the downgrade. The Fund has pencilled in growth this year at 1.7% (from 1.9% in the previous forecast) and growth of just 1.3% in 2017, having previously pencilled in 2.2%. This makes for an interesting contrast to something our European equity team highlighted yesterday. They pointed out that UK four-week net earnings revisions (defined as upgrades minus downgrades) have just turned positive for the first time since early 2013 on the back of weaker Sterling. They note that the GBP trade-weighted index is down 9% since the UK referendum and that 65% of UK revenues come from abroad.

Refreshing our screens this morning it’s been a fairly mixed start for bourses in Asia. Losses are being led by markets in Japan with the Nikkei currently -0.72%, while the Shanghai Comp (-0.18%) and Kospi (-0.28%) are also down. On the other hand the Hang Seng (+0.77%) and ASX (+0.55%) are stronger despite the minimal newsflow. Commodity markets are little changed with WTI Oil (-0.02%) in particular holding steady having closed below $45/bbl. Elsewhere there’s big news to come from the US Presidency race where Donald Trump has officially been crowned the Republican presidential candidate at the convention in Cleveland.

Moving on. Yesterday we saw the results of the latest ECB Bank Lending Survey that demonstrated a continued easing of lending conditions in Q2 2016, along with further loosening expected in Q3. In a Credit Bite published just before this email we analysed these results alongside some other important default indicators. We find that while the lending survey does not point towards elevated defaults, there are other lead indicators that are more worrying on this front.

Staying in Europe, as we highlighted earlier yesterday the EU’s highest court ruled that the losses imposed on creditors during Slovenia’s banking rescue in 2013 were legal when the nation imposed ‘burden-sharing’ on private investors. That rescue had resulted in €600m of junior bondholder’s debt being wiped out at the time, although significantly the ruling also stated that burden-sharing wasn’t a pre-requisite for state aid. The court said that ‘burden sharing by shareholders and subordinated creditors as a prerequisite for the authorization, by the commission, of state aid to a bank with a shortfall is not contrary to EU law’. Clearly this ruling comes at an interesting time given the focus on Italian lenders at present, with the nation looking to recap or restructure its banking system. EU competition commissioner Margrethe Vestager said following the ruling that the decision will not change the EU’s talks with Italy’s government and that an agreement may be ‘quite close’. Italian banks were generally down 1-3% yesterday by the close.

In terms of that data yesterday, the standout was the decline in the German ZEW survey this month with the current situation component falling 4.7pts and more than expected to 49.8 (vs. 51.8 expected). That was just the second sub-50 reading (the other coming in April) since February last year. More telling though was the weakness in the expectations component which plummeted 26pts to -6.8 (vs. +9 expected) and to the lowest level since November 2012. It’s worth noting that the survey period was July 4th-18th and so post-Brexit. Meanwhile in the UK the inflation report for June was largely in line to a little bit firmer than expected. CPI printed at +0.2% mom as expected, with the YoY rate creeping up two-tenths to +0.5% as a result. The core also rose two-tenths to +1.4% yoy.

Meanwhile across the pond the latest housing market data showed housing starts as rising more than expected in June (+4.8% mom vs. +0.5% expected). The less volatile permits data rose +1.5% mom and also a little more than expected (+1.2% mom expected). Our US economists noted yesterday that starts and permits remain well below their previous-cycle levels by a wide margin, however the latest data confirms that the ongoing grinding improvement in the sector likely has further room to run.

Looking at the day ahead, it’s fairly quiet data-wise in Europe this morning with German PPI the early release, followed by the latest UK employment report where current expectations is for the ILO unemployment rate to hold steady at 5%. There’s no data out in the US this afternoon, although we will receive the European Commission’s flash consumer confidence reading for July along with China’s Conference Board leading economic index for June. Earnings will continue to be a big focus with 21 S&P companies due to report. Morgan Stanley (prior to the open), EBay, American Express and Intel (all after the close) are the highlights while over in Europe we’ve got 10 Stoxx 600 companies due to release their latest numbers



i)Late  TUESDAY night/WEDNESDAY morning: Shanghai closed DOWN 8.69 POINTS OR 0.29%/ /Hang Sang closed UP 209.28 OR 0.97%. The Nikkei closed DOWN 41.42 OR 0.25%/  Australia’s all ordinaires  CLOSED UP 0.58% Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.6755 ON A LITTLE REVALUATION /Oil FELL to 44.64 dollars per barrel for WTI and 46.70 for Brent. Stocks in Europe ALL IN THE GREEN. Offshore yuan trades  6.68161 yuan to the dollar vs 6.6755 for onshore yuan.THE SPREAD BETWEEN ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE NARROWS CONSIDERABLY 



In a delayed reaction, the USA/Yen shoots up to 107.28 as Kyodo plans on a 20 trilion yen stimulus plan.  And gold goes down on this money printing!

(courtesy zero hedge)

USDJPY Surges In Delayed Reaction To News That Japan Is Considering An Expanded JPY20 Trillion Stimulus Plan

In what we can only attribute to a delayed reaction to a news story that hit earlier in Japan’s Kyodo, according to which Japan was now considering a JPY20 trillion stimulus package, double what had been previously speculated, moments ago the USDJPY surged on now concurrent news, spiking by 0.5% and hitting the highest level since June 7.

For those who missed the Kyodo report, it said that Japan’s newly mulled JPY20 TRN package will be more than than an initial plan for just over 10 trillion yen to counter possible effects of the U.K.’s decision to leave the European Union.

  • New plan will include projects for FY2017 and beyond; increase low-interest “zaito” loans by 6t yen
  • Size may be increased further
  • Govt to seek cabinet approval of plan in early August
  • Package partly funded by extra budget for FY2016
  • 8.3t yen for infrastructure, including 3t yen for Osaka maglev train extension
  • Govt plans to lend dollar funds to cos. to counter Brexit impact
  • Govt to provide 3t yen from FX reserves to JBIC for lending to Japanese cos.
  • 3.4t yen to be allocated for cos. building infrastructure overseas
  • Funds also going toward improving disaster resilience of buildings and supporting farm exports




The IMF are now called “clowns” after they now admit that England will grow much faster with a BREXIT

(courtesy zero hedge)

IMF Called “Clowns” After Admitting They Fabricated Brexit Doom And Gloom

“The IMF has serious credibility problems. It has been seriously wrong for years. I hope that one of the things that the new government does is push to have some credible people running this institution… rather than the clowns currently running it,” exclaimed UKIP MP Douglas Carswell, pointing out Lagarde’s legion of fools flip-flop that the British economy will grow faster than Germany and France in the next two years – only weeks after its doom-laden warnings about Brexit.

As The Daily Mail reports, after saying that leaving the European Union could trigger a UK recession, the International Monetary Fund now expects the British economy to grow by 1.7 per cent this year and 1.3 per cent next year.

That is weaker than the 1.9 and 2.2 per cent growth forecasts before the referendum, but the UK is still set to be the second-fastest growing economy in the Group of Seven industrialised nations this year – behind the United States – and third-fastest next year, behind the US and Canada.

Of course, this is not the first time The IMF has unleashed comedic genius on the world

But the new UK forecasts represent a climbdown for the global financial watchdog after it issued a string of doom-laden warnings over the damage Brexit would do.

Ahead of the referendum, IMF managing director Christine Lagarde, an ally of former chancellor George Osborne, said Brexit would be ‘pretty bad, to very, very bad’ for the UK.

But the latest forecasts – and an admission that a recession is now unlikely – suggest the outlook is not as bleak as the watchdog claimed.

And again, as The Mail notes,it is not the first time the IMF has had to row back from damaging comments about the UK economy. In April 2013, the fund’s then chief economist Olivier Blanchard said Britain was ‘playing with fire’ by pressing ahead with austerity at a time of ‘very low growth’. But the IMF was quickly forced into a dramatic volte face as the UK economy sprang into life, forcing Mrs Lagarde to admit ‘we got it wrong’.

The IMF’s new chief economist Maury Obstfeld said yesterday there were ‘promising signs’ for the global economy in the first half of 2016, but added: ‘Brexit has thrown a spanner in the works.’

John Longworth, who was ousted as director general of the British Chambers of Commerce after backing Brexit, said: ‘Talk of Armageddon seems to be receding.

‘This is not surprising. If the Government adopts the right policies, we will be in a position where all the doom and gloom that was predicted simply disappears.’

A Treasury spokesman said: ‘Our country remains open for business. We are the same outward-looking, globally-minded, big-thinking country we have always been.’

Still, we are sure The IMF’s new forecast will be spot on this time and the mainstream media will spin it as gospel enough reason to buy stocks…




The total of Turkish civilians now total 50,000 as Turkey is set to unveil ’emergency measures today:

(courtesy zero hedge)

As Erdogan’s Historic Purge Claims 50,000, Turkey Set To Unveil “Emergency Measures”

Erdogan’s historic purge of dissidents and adversaries – many of which curiously are to be found in the country’s educational system – continues, and according to the latest count, a total of around 50,000 soldiers, police, judges, civil servants and teachers have been suspended or detained since the coup attempt, stirring tensions across the country of 80 million which borders Syria’s chaos and is a Western ally against Islamic State.

The ongoing cleansing has also spooked Turkish investors sending local markets and the currency sliding on concerns Erdogan is going to far with his retribution.

In response, Turkey said it would announce emergency measures on Wednesday to try “to shore up stability and prevent damage to the economy” which is paradoxically reeling as a result not so much of the coup as Turkey’s reaction to it. According to Reuters, Erdogan has vowed to clean the “virus” responsible for the plot from all state institutions. The depth and scale of the purges have raised concern among Western allies that Erdogan is trying to suppress all dissent, and that opponents unconnected with the plot will be caught in the net.

He will chair meetings in his palace on Wednesday of the cabinet and the National Security Council, after which a series of emergency measures are expected to be announced.

Not surprisingly, government ministers and top officials have not been briefed in advance of the meetings. “The cabinet meeting is classified at the highest level for national security reasons. The palace will give ministers a dossier just beforehand,” one senior official told Reuters.

“Ministers do not yet know what is going to be discussed.” Perhaps because as Turkey regresses back to a sultanate, ministers become redundant.

Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Simsek told Reuters a priority in the measures to be discussed on Wednesday would be preventing damage to the economy. He also said on Twitter they would be “market-friendly” and would prioritize structural reform. We are confident some measure against “market speculators” will be implemented shortly.

Among the latest announcements, around a third of Turkey’s roughly 360 serving generals have been detained since the coup bid, a second senior official said, with 99 charged pending trial and 14 more being held. Additionally, academics were banned from traveling abroad on Wednesday in what a Turkish official said was a temporary measure to prevent the risk of alleged coup plotters in universities from fleeing. State TRT television said 95 academics had been removed from their posts at Istanbul University alone. “Universities have always been crucial for military juntas in Turkey and certain individuals are believed to be in contact with cells within the military,” the official said.

Meanwhile, Erdogan continues to focus the public’s attention on his hand-picked scapegoat for the attempted, if perhaps staged, coup. “This parallel terrorist organization will no longer be an effective pawn for any country,” Prime Minister Binali Yildirim said, referring to what the government has long alleged is a state within a state controlled by followers of Fethullah Gulen. “We will dig them up by their roots,” he told parliament.

Erdogan blames the network of U.S.-based cleric Fethullah Gulen for Friday night’s attempted coup, in which more than 230 people were killed as soldiers commandeered fighters jets, military helicopters and tanks to try to overthrow the government. On Tuesday, authorities shut down media outlets deemed to be supportive of the cleric.

Seventy-five-year-old Gulen, who lives in self-imposed exile in Pennsylvania but has a network of supporters within Turkey, has condemned the abortive coup and denied any role in it. A former ally-turned critic of Erdogan, he suggested the president staged it as an excuse for a crackdown after a steady accumulation of control during 14 years in power.

Obama discussed the status of Gulen in a telephone call with Erdogan on Tuesday, the White House said, urging Ankara to show restraint as it pursues those responsible for the coup attempt. In parallel talks, U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter and his Turkish counterpart discussed the importance of Turkey’s Incirlik Air Base in the campaign against Islamic State in Syria and Iraq, the Pentagon said. The base, which is used by Turkish and U.S. forces in the air campaign against Islamic State, has been without power in the days since the failed coup.

In an amusing twist, Prime Minister Yildirim accused Washington, which has said it will consider Gulen’s extradition only if clear evidence is provided, of double standards in its fight against terrorism.

Yildirim said the justice ministry had sent a dossier to U.S. authorities on Gulen, whose religious movement blends conservative Islamic values with a pro-Western outlook and who has a network of supporters within Turkey. “We have more than enough evidence, more than you could ask for, on Gulen,” Justice Minister Bekir Bozdag told reporters outside parliament. “There is no need to prove the coup attempt, all evidence shows that the coup attempt was organized on his will and orders.”

White House spokesman Josh Earnest confirmed Ankara had filed materials
in electronic form with the U.S. government, which officials were
reviewing. Any extradition request from Turkey, once submitted, would be
evaluated under the terms of a treaty between the two countries, he

This treaty excludes offences “of a political character” although it does cover those “committed or attempted against a head of state or a head of government”.

Any extradition request would face legal and political hurdles in the United States. Even if approved by a judge, it would still have to go to Secretary of State John Kerry, who can consider non-legal factors, such as humanitarian arguments.

“I urge the U.S. government to reject any effort to abuse the extradition process to carry out political vendettas,” Gulen said on Tuesday in a statement issued by the Alliance for Shared Values, a group associated with the cleric.

* * *

Amusingly the real “double standard” has nothing to do with the US (un)willingness to extradite an old man who certainly had nothing to do with the staged coup, and everything to do with the western treatment of what is now a historic putsch for a “democratic” country.

As Reuters concludes, “Turkey’s Western allies have expressed solidarity with the government over the coup attempt but have also voiced increasing alarm at the scale and swiftness of the response, urging it to adhere to democratic values.”

Since 50,000 purged is clearly not enough for Western allies to do anything more than “voice increasing alarm”, we wonder what number will trigger actual action: 100,000? 1 Million? More?




The Turkish lira is crashing to 3.04 to the dollar accompanied by a high risk of default as witnessed by the credit default swaps: Turmoil in Turkey

(courtesy zero hedge)

Currency Tumbles, Credit Risk Spikes As Turkey Considers ‘State of Emergency’

Following yesterday’s market ‘warning’ that Erdogan may have taken things too far, Turkey’s currency and credit risk markets are in further disarray today as Turkey’s National Security Council will consider calling for a state of emergency according to ruling AK Party deputy head Cevdet Yilmaz.

The Lira is crashing back near record lows…

Some context for the Lira’s progress…

And Turkish sovereign credit risk is soaring…

As we noted yesterday, it is truly a bizarre time when the only thing keeping corrupt, conflicted “democratic” politicians honest are FX and credit market ‘threats’.



Then S & P lowered the boom on Turkey by downgrading the country to BB with a negative outlook; the Turkish lira then tumbled to a new all time low:

(courtesy zero hedge)

S&P Downgrades Turkey To BB, Outlook Negative; Lira Tumbles To New All Time Low

Moments ago the Turkish LIra took another leg lower following what many had anticipated in the aftermath of this weekend’s events: a downgrade by a rating agency, in this case S&P. which just cut the country to BB from BB+, outlook negative.

Full report:

Republic of Turkey Foreign Currency Ratings Lowered To ‘BB/B’; Outlook Negative


  • Following the attempted coup in the Republic of Turkey on July 15, we believe the polarization of Turkey’s political landscape has further eroded its institutional checks and balances.
  • In addition, we expect a period of heightened unpredictability that could constrain capital inflows into Turkey’s externally leveraged economy.
  • As a result, we are lowering our foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Turkey to ‘BB/B’ and ‘BB+/B’, respectively, from ‘BB+/B’and ‘BBB-/A-3’.
  • The negative outlook reflects our view that Turkey’s economic, fiscal, and debt metrics could deteriorate beyond what we expect, if political  uncertainty contributed to further weakening in the investment  environment, potentially intensifying balance-of-payment pressures.


On July 20, 2016, S&P Global Ratings lowered its unsolicited foreign currency long- and short-term sovereign credit ratings on the Republic of Turkey to ‘BB/B’ from ‘BB+/B’. At the same time, we lowered our unsolicited local currency long- and short-term sovereign credit ratings on Turkey to ‘BB+/B’ from ‘BBB-/A-3’. The outlook is negative.

We also revised the transfer and convertibility (T&C) assessment on Turkey to ‘BBB-‘ from ‘BBB’. In addition, we lowered our unsolicited long-term Turkey national scale rating to ‘trAA+’ from ‘trAAA’ and affirmed the ‘trA-1’ short-term rating.

As a “sovereign rating” (as defined in EU CRA Regulation 1060/2009 “EU CRA Regulation”), the ratings on the Republic of Turkey are subject to certain publication restrictions set out in Art 8a of the EU CRA Regulation, includingpublication in accordance with a pre-established calendar (see “Calendar Of 2016 EMEA Sovereign, Regional, And Local Government Rating Publication Dates,”published Dec. 22, 2015, on RatingsDirect). Under the EU CRA Regulation, deviations from the announced calendar are allowed only in limited circumstances and must be accompanied by a detailed explanation of the reasonsfor the deviation.

In this case, the reason for the deviation is our view that following the attempted coup on July 15, 2016, Turkey’s institutional effectiveness has beenfurther eroded, raising risks to its externally leveraged economy. We believe these events will make rolling over Turkey’s substantial short-term external debt more challenging.

The next rating publication on Turkey is scheduled for Nov. 4, 2016, accordingto our calendar.


The downgrade reflects our view that following the attempted coup on July 15, Turkey’s political landscape has fragmented further. We believe this will undermine Turkey’s investment environment, growth, and capital inflows into its externally leveraged economy. In the aftermath of the failed coup, we believe that the risks to Turkey’s ability to roll over its external debt have increased. We estimate that it has to roll over nearly 42% of its total external debt–amounting to over US$170 billion (5x usable reserves; 24% of estimated 2016 GDP)–over the next 12 months. In addition, we expect that given the political uncertainty, Turkey’s policymakers will likely stray from their commitment to enact reforms intended to wean the economy away from its dependence on foreign financing.

Since the attempted coup, we understand that, so far, an estimated 45,000, largely government officials, have either been suspended or removed from theirposts, with the education and judiciary sectors most affected. A further 14,000 police officers and soldiers have either been suspended or detained. Wehad already expected heightened political uncertainty in 2015–due to escalating domestic violence following the ending of the peace process with Kurdish militants, two general elections, and instability along Turkey’s southeastern border–to spill over into 2016. However, the attempted coup and our expectation about the associated fallout on the real economy, through weakening capital inflows, is beyond what we factored into our previous base-case scenario. Turkey’s net foreign exchange reserves–at an estimated $32 billion–provide coverage for only about two months of current account payments, suggesting limited buffers to offset external pressures.

Mitigating its external vulnerabilities to some degree, Turkey has deep local-currency capital markets that have facilitated its access to and cost offinancing. Two-thirds of government debt is funded in local currency and at fixed rates. Furthermore, we view the treasury’s policy of meeting net public-sector financing needs by issuing in local currency at longer maturities as a positive rating factor.


The negative outlook reflects our view that Turkey’s economic, fiscal, and debt metrics could deteriorate beyondwhat we expect, if political uncertainty contributed to further weakening in the investment environment, potentially intensifying balance-of-payment pressures. We could also lower the ratings if we assessed Turkey’s monetary policy credibility as deteriorating due to government intervention.

We could revise our outlook on Turkey to stable if the government’s fiscal deficits remained modest and the independence of key institutions was not eroded.


The Oddly “Inconsistent” Event That Has Turkey Wondering If The Entire Coup Was Staged

The question marks around the failed Turkish “coup” continue to pile up.

Several days ago we reported that in one of the most glaring inconsistencies surrounding the failed military attempt to overthrow the Turkish president, at the height of the attempt to overthrow Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, the rebel pilots of two F-16 fighter jets had Erdogan’s plane in their sights. And yet he was able to fly on.

“At least two F-16s harassed Erdogan’s plane while it was in the air and en route to Istanbul. They locked their radars on his plane and on two other F-16s protecting him,” a former military officer with knowledge of the events told Reuters. “Why they didn’t fire is a mystery,” he said.

Now a new mystery that just does not add up has emerged.

According to the government’s official narrative, rushed together in the days after the coup, there was an attack on Saturday morning by helicopter-borne commandos against a resort hotel in Marmaris. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was meant to be staying there. But the attack took place nearly an hour after every news channel in Turkey beamed images of Mr Erdogan addressing the nation from the airport in Istanbul, some 750km away.

As even the FT skeptically reports, that episode is one of many inconsistencies and strange occurrences in a coup whose amateurish — almost kamikaze — nature preordained its failure and is now providing rich fodder for conspiracy theories. That Turkey is so polarised — roughly split between those who love and hate Mr Erdogan — has only added to the froth.”

As a result of the gaping holes in the story, even the central issue of who was behind the coup is now contested reality. According to a snap poll a third of Turks believe Erdogan himself, who says his own life was threatened, was behind the coup. (The poll, by London-based Streetbees, queried about 2,800 Turks, two-thirds via mobile apps, and a third in person.)

However, that helicopter raid, along with reports that Mr Erdogan’s plane was pursued by two fighter jets that never opened fire, some argue, is evidence that his life was never in any real danger.

To be sure, voices have quickly emerged slamming any such allegations as “preposterous” conspiracy theories. “Turks, like a lot of people around the world are given to conspiracy theories — simplistic explanations for complex events for things they don’t fully understand,” said Ross Wilson, a former US ambassador to Ankara now at the Atlantic Council. “Did Erdogan secretly engineer this, which is preposterous, or did the United States engineer this, which is equally preposterous?”

However for the locals, who have extensive experience with “conspiracy theories” that end up becoming conspiracy fact, especially when it comes to the government, things are not quite so clear cut. Those seeking holes in the government’s version of events about the coup are particularly focused on an offhand comment made by Mr Erdogan on Saturday, where he called the coup “a gift from god to fully cleanse the army.”

And, as we have repeatedly reported, the zeal with which his government has since seized upon their opponents, firing or detaining as many as 20,000 people within two days, has raised questions as to whether the failed coup has simply provided him with the opportunity to pursue longstanding aims.

Of course, Turkish officials furiously reject that notion. They say that the lists of those arrested were a long time in the making, the result of investigations that mapped their networks, but failed to detect the coup itself.

In an highly amusing quip, Ibrahim Kalin, the president’s spokesman said that “it’s funny that people still talk about this. Those who accuse us [in Turkey] of conspiracy theories are now presenting this nonsensical stuff as political analysis and commentary. If this was not a coup, what is a coup?” Well, a coup – for starters – is one where there is no military raid on a presidential vacation spot hours after he has left it.

But his punchline was most damning: “It’s comparable to the claim that 9/11 was orchestrated by the US.” So once it is confirmed, one way or another, that Erdogan directly or indirectly blessed the coup, will that mean that 9/11 was orchestrated by the US… with Saudi Arabia’s kind help?

Meanwhile, skepticism continues to grow: Both online, and in personal interviews, Turks who believe Mr Erdogan staged the coup himself say that its failure is proof enough — the military in this country knows how to topple a government, having done so several times before.

“Why people believe this conspiracy is that it has more to do with the blueprint to the coup,” said Sinan Ulgen, a former Turkish diplomat and chairman of Istanbul’s Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies, “People in this country remember past coups. They already have a frame of reference of what a coup should look like, and this didn’t fit.”

What does fit, however, is Erdogan’s response to the coup, real or faked: the authoritarian president is on his way to cementing all power in the country while eliminating all political, military, educational and press opposition.



This is a little terrifying:  American nukes are just not safe in Turkey anymore!

(courtesy FP/Jeffery Lewis)

(courtesy zerohedge)


A must read from egon Von Greyerz on the six major events that will change history!

(courtesy Von Greyerz)


Six Major Events That Will Change History

By Egon von Greyerz

Investors globally have never faced risk of the magnitude that the we are now exposed to. But sadly very few are aware of the unprecedented risks the world is facing. For the ones who understand risk and take the right decisions, it will “lead to fortune”. Only very few will choose that route. Instead most investors will continue to live in the hope that current trends will go on forever but sadly these people will end up “in shallows and in miseries”.

Risk is now staring us all right in our face but very few people can actually see it.

Let’s just be clear what some of the events that will change the face of the earth are:

    1. No Sovereign state will ever repay their debt – That is an irrefutable statement and anyone who doesn’t understand that lives in denial.Sovereign debt has increased exponentially in the last couple of decades and governments neither can nor have the intention of ever paying their creditors. They can’t even afford to pay the interest and this is why an ever increasing number of countries have negative interest rates. So not only will they not repay the capital but investors now pay bankrupt nations for the privilege of holding their worthless paper. It is incomprehensible that investors are prepared to hold nearer $100 trillion of debt with no yield or negative yield and no chance of getting their money back. No one worries about the return OF their money and now it seems that investors don’t even worry about getting a return ON their money. This is a shocking state of affairs that eventually will lead to a total collapse of all sovereign debt.
    1. No bank will ever give depositors their money back – I know that very few believe this statement. Because, if bank depositors did, they would not hold around $200 trillion of assets in the financial system plus another $1.5 quadrillion derivatives in the banking system. Bank stocks in Europe, whether it is Deutsche Bank in Germany or bank Monte Paschi in Italy are continuing to crash to new lows. As I stated in a recent article, the share price of most European banks as well as many US banks like Citigroup or Bank of America have collapsed 70-95% since 2006 and they are on their way to ZERO. Consumer borrowing is still growing exponentially. Student loans in the US is now $1.4 trillion up a MERE 3x since 2006. And the delinquency rate is increasing exponentially as most students can’t find a job.
    2. Stock markets will fall 90% or more – I know that most investors will think that this is a sensational statement from someone totally deranged. But let me just remind investors that when the Dow crashed 90% between 1929 and 1932, the economic conditions in the USA and the rest of the world were far superior to the ones we are experiencing currently. Economic conditions are deteriorating fast worldwide but stock markets are continuing to go up to dizzy levels. Investors are putting their faith in funny or printed money. S&P earnings have declined for 5 straight quarters. The Dow is now valued at a dizzy 24x GAAP earnings. And sales revenue, adjusted for share buybacks is down 1/3rd since 2006. Yes, governments worldwide will this year launch the most massive money printing programme in history. But that will be like pushing on a string and will have zero effect on the world economy. The time when the misconceived Keynesian methods of creating prosperity by printing worthless pieces of paper (or electronic money) is now passed. The printed money will only exacerbate the debt problem. And the world will soon learn that you cannot solve a problem by applying the same methods that caused the problem in the first place.
    1. Property markets will collapse – Low interest rates and speculative frenzy have created bubble property markets worldwide. We had the first warning signal in 2006 but through massive money printing and guarantees to the extent of US$25 trillion, governments and central banks managed to postpone the inevitable. Since then global debt has increased by 2/3rd and interest rates have declined from around 6% to zero or negative. In Switzerland a 15-year mortgage now costs 1.25% and in Sweden you don’t need to ever amortise your mortgage. And in the UK, 6 major commercial property funds have now frozen redemptions. That represents 50% of the commercial property funds and is a grave sign that should be taken as seriously as the 2006 subprime crisis. China with its $34 trillion debt and many ghost towns and empty properties will also have massive problems.
    2. Currencies will go to ZERO – The deficit spending of most countries and ensuing debt explosion will put continues pressure on all currencies. Most currencies have lost 97-99% in real terms in the last 100 years. The last 2-3% fall will probably take place in the next 4-7 years. But the problem is that this last fall is 100% from now. This means that all currencies will go to their intrinsic value of ZERO in the next few years. So any cash savings will be worthless.
  1. Geopolitical risk, terrorism and social unrest – These risks are higher than ever in history whether it is in the Middle East, between the US and Russia, China etc or civil unrest in Europe, the US, China or the rest of the world. Social unrest, terrorism and civil war will also become part of normal life in many countries. What has happened in Paris, Brussels, Nice, Orlando, Baton Rouge and Turkey is just the beginning of a trend that will spread across the globe. It will lead to a much less safe world for many years. It will also reduce tourism and commercial flights dramatically. In a less secure environment, people will choose to stay at home.

The above sounds to many like a prophecy of doom and gloom. For investors who want the good news, they can just listen to any TV channel or read the newspapers. There are very few places where risk is spelt out properly. I obviously hope that my forecasts above are totally wrong. But I fear that I will be right. And therefore I believe that it is essential for investors as well as people who don’t have much to protect to take whatever measures they can.

Gold and silver will not solve all the potential problems or catastrophes that the world will encounter in the next few years. But it is probably the best insurance that investors can hold to protect capital against the potentially biggest destruction of wealth that the world has ever encountered. Naturally it must be physical gold and silver and it must be held outside of the financial system.

Egon von Greyerz

Founder and Managing Partner
Matterhorn Asset Management AG


More unexpected gasoline inventory build on top of huge production rise as well as buildup in Cushing causes havoc in WTI

(courtesy zero hedge)

Unexpected Gasoline Inventory Build, Production Rise Spark Crude Chaos

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings/WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 am




USA/CAN 1.3054 UP .0030

Early THIS WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 9 basis points, trading now JUST above the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1012; Europe is still reacting to Gr Britain BREXIT,deflation, announcements of massive stimulation (QE), a proxy middle east war, and the ramifications of a default at the Austrian Hypo bank, an imminent default of Greece, Glencore, Nysmark and the Ukraine, along with rising peripheral bond yield further stimulation as the EU is moving more into NIRP, and NOW THE USA’S NON tightening by FAILING TO RAISE THEIR INTEREST RATE / Last night the Shanghai composite  CLOSED DOWN 8.69 POINTS OR 0.29%   / Hang Sang CLOSED UP 209.28 POINTS OR .97% /AUSTRALIA IS HIGHER BY .58%/ EUROPEAN BOURSES ARE ALL IN THE GREEN   as they start their morning

We are seeing that the 3 major global carry trades are being unwound. The BIGGY is the first one;

1. the total dollar global short is 9 trillion USA and as such we are now witnessing a sea of red blood on the streets as derivatives blow up with the massive rise in the rise in the dollar against all paper currencies and especially with the fall of the yuan carry trade. The emerging market which house close to 50% of the 9 trillion dollar short is feeling the massive pain as their debt is quite unmanageable.

2, the Nikkei average vs gold carry trade ( NIKKEI blowing up and the yen carry trade HAS BLOWN up/and now NIRP)

3. Short Swiss franc/long assets blew up ( Eastern European housing/Nikkei etc.

These massive carry trades are terribly offside as they are being unwound. It is causing global deflation ( we are at debt saturation already) as the world reacts to lack of demand and a scarcity of debt collateral. Bourses around the globe are reacting in kind to these events as well as the potential for a GREXIT>

The NIKKEI: this WEDNESDAY morning: closed DOWN 41.42 OR 0.25% 

Trading from Europe and Asia:

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / : Hang Sang CLOSED UP 209.28 OR 0.97%  ,Shanghai CLOSED DOWN 8.69 OR 0.29%   / Australia BOURSE IN THE GREEN: /Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 41.42 OR 0.25%/India’s Sensex IN THE GREEN  

Gold very early morning trading: $1323.00


Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.572% !!! UP 2 in basis points from TUESDAY night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%. The 30 yr bond yield RISES to 2.287 UP 1 in basis points from TUESDAY night. (SPREAD GOES AGAINST THE BANKS)

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 97.09 UP 4 CENTS from TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING



And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS

Portuguese 10 year bond yield:  3.07% DOWN 2 in basis points from TUESDAY  (does not buy the rally)

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -0.237% DOWN 2  in   basis points from TUESDAY

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.16%  DOWN 3 IN basis points from TUESDAY( this is totally nuts!!/

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.24 par IN basis points from TUESDAY (again totally nuts/)

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 8 points HIGHER than Spain.




Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/3:30 PM

Euro/USA 1.1007 DOWN .0006 (Euro =DOWN 6 basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/

USA/Japan: 106.82 UP 0.713(Yen DOWN 71 basis points/HELICOPTER MONEY )


USA/Canada 1.3056-UP 0.0031 (Canadian dollar DOWN 31 basis points AS OIL FELL (WTI AT $44.85). Canada keeps rate at 0.5% and does not cut!


This afternoon, the Euro was DOWN by 6 basis points to trade at 1.1007

The Yen ROSE to 106.82 for a LOSS of 71 basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY TO COMMENCE


The Canadian dollar FELL by 31 basis points to 1.3056, WITH WTI OIL AT:  $44.85


The USA/Yuan closed at 6.6760

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.237% DOWN 2  IN BASIS  points in yield/

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield: UP 2 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 1.576% //trading well below the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)

USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.294 UP 2  in basis points on the day 


Your closing USA dollar index, 97.17 UP 12 CENTS  ON THE DAY/4 PM 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY

London:  CLOSED UP 31.62 OR 0.47%
German Dax :CLOSED UP  160.71 OR  1.61%
Paris Cac  CLOSED UP 49.63  OR 1.15%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 78.00 OR 0.92%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 90.65 OR 0.54%

The Dow was UP 36.02  points or 0.19%

NASDAQ  up 6.78 points or 0.13%
WTI Oil price; 44.85 at 4:30 pm;

Brent Oil: 47.03




This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today

Closing Price for Oil, 5 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:


BRENT: 47.12

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.578% 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.09 up 4 cents

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.32146 up .0113 or 113 basis pts.

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: -.011%


And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver


Stocks Went Up…Again



Dow and S&P surged off overnight weakness back to record highs…


Trannies dropped into the red for the week though as Nasdaq surged…


9th straight day up for The Dow… the longest streak since March 2013…


“Shorts” dared to short stocks yesterday… and were monkey-hammered today…


VIX was crushed to 2-year lows… VIX was jammed after the plunge in stocks to get momentum going again BUT note the blue and red shaded regions where the correlation regime for VIX and stocks has flipped…


VIX term structure nears record steeps…


As all of a sudden, oil matters… #BlackGoldMatters


Gold remains the winner post-Brexit… as stocks catch up to bonds…


Treasury yields rose on the day, erasing all bond gains post-coup…


Despite the USD Index ending the day practically unch, FX markets were chaotic…


With USDJPY retracing all the Brexit losses… the last 8 days have seen the biggest plunge in JPY since The BoJ unleashed QQE2 in Nov 2014…


And Cable spiking on no slowdown suggesting no rate cut coming soon…


PMs were hit hard today and slammed into the close. Copper faded but Crude soared magically…


Gold and Silver are fading but remain way ahead post-Brexit…


And finally this is what happened to crude today…


Charts: Bloomberg




An excellent Bellwether :  trucking in the uSA

(courtesy Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

Another Bad Month For Truck Shipping

Submitted by Michael Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Truck shipments were up in June from May. So were expenditures.

That sounds pretty good, but it really isn’t. Shipments are normally up in June and the Cass Freight Index report from which I get numbers is not seasonally adjusted.

The best way to compare June is to prior years, and that picture isn’t pretty.

Cass Freight Index

Cass 2016-07A


Cass 2016-07B


Cass 2016-07C

Truck shipments and expenditures are below the June level of 2015, 2014, and 2013.

Cass notes

“The June freight shipments index climbed 1.7 percent. This was 4.3 percent below last year and 7.6 percent lower than June 2014. Stores are already stocking school supplies, which accounts for some of the rise. … June’s shipments are in step with patterns that have been observed in the past few years, but are still well below the volume in the last two years.July usually sees a dip in the number of freight shipments, but the first part of July seems to be fairly robust.”


“Total freight expenditures jumped 3.9 percent in June—the second largest increase this year. Most of this increase can be attributed to the growth in shipments. June 2016 is still 8.8 percent below June 2015.”


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