In a turbulent session for FX, the Yen soared as much as 1.4%, the most in three weeks, after Finance Minister Aso says the government will “leave actual policy measures to BOJ”, sending the Nikkei lower by 1.4%. European stocks and U.S. equity index futures are little changed despite the slide in the key carry pair as the Fed starts its two day meeting.

The GBP/USD sold off in early trading following an FT report that BOE’s
Weale favors immediate stimulus, however sterling rebound and erased all
losses in subsequent trading.

The Yen surged started following early press reports, subsequently confirmed by Japan’s finance minister that the government has yet to decide on a fiscal stimulus package, spurring traders to temper expectations. This takes place after aggressive jawboning in recent weeks that Japan may be on the cusp of unleashing helicopter money, with Aso effectively pouring cold water on expectations of a massive fiscal stimulus funded by the BOJ. The result was a plunge in the Yen, which dropped to the lowest levels since the dramatic buying spree in the aftermath of Bernanke’s visit to Japan.

While economists predict the Bank of Japan will ease policy this week, Aso’s comments cast doubt over coordinated efforts by Japanese officials.

“Reports in the local media (Nikkei) and Aso’s comments suggest the Japanese fiscal stimulus package may fall well short of expectations, further dampening hopes of an aggressive, coordinated approach to easing in the near term,” says Sue Trinh, head of Asia FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets.

Bernard Aw, a strategist at IG Asia Pte, reiterated the concern: “Expectations of additional monetary and fiscal stimulus might have been tempered, especially when much was riding on Abe’s stimulus plan. We could also see the Fed trying to strike a balance between sounding upbeat about U.S. economic outlook and curbing exuberance about rate-hike hopes in September.”

“The market is cautious due to risk of policy disappointment,” said Neil Jones, head of hedge fund sales at Mizuho Bank Ltd. in London. “The BOJ may do nothing and the Fed may take on a more dovish angle.”

The Stoxx 600 dropped 0.2% in early trading, with volumes 31% below the 30-day average. BP lost 2.7%, down from a one-month high, led by energy shares after BP Plc reported profit that missed estimates.  Lenders declined with Commerzbank AG down 6.1 percent after saying a key measure of financial strength dropped in the second quarter. Italian banks fell, taking the national FTSE MIB Index to the biggest slide among western-European markets, before regulators publish their latest health check on the region’s largest banks on July 29. “We’ve pushed equities up an awful long way over the last few weeks, more than most people had expected,” said Peter Dixon, global equities economist at Commerzbank AG in London. “We are hanging around waiting for something to give us a lift.”

In the U.S., traders have boosted bets the Federal Reserve will raise
rates this year, even though they are likely to keep them on hold
Wednesday.  S&P 500 futures were basically unchanged, down 0.1% after falling Monday
from last week’s record-high close. Gilead Sciences Inc. fell 4.4
percent in early New York trading after cutting its annual product sales forecast and reporting lower-than-expected sales in the second quarter for its hepatitis C drugs.

Yields on 10-year Treasury notes fell for the first time in three days, sliding three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 1.55 percent. In Germany, yields on similar-maturity debt fell for a fourth day, dropping one basis point to minus 0.05 percent. U.K. gilts also rose, with the 10-year yield falling three basis points to 0.78 percent.

In commodities, the story remained one of oil weakness as crude fell to a three-month low in New York as supplies were considered to be plentiful even as stockpiles were seen deepening a record pullback in the U.S., the biggest fuel consumer. West Texas Intermediate fell 0.6 percent to $42.87 a barrel and Brent slid 0.3 percent to $44.61. While U.S. crude inventories probably slid by 2.25 million barrels, gasoline supplies are seen increasing by 600,000 barrels, swelling stockpiles that are also at the highest in decades, according to a Bloomberg survey before an Energy Information Administration report Wednesday.

Verizon
Communications Inc., McDonald’s Corp. and Apple Inc. are among 45
companies in the S&P 500 reporting earnings on Tuesday. Profits and
sales have broadly topped projections so far this season, and analysts
have eased their estimates for declines in net income, expecting a 4.5
percent slide for the second quarter for S&P 500 members.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures down less than 0.1% to 2162
• Stoxx 600 down less than 0.1% to 341
• FTSE 100 up 0.3% to 6729
• DAX up 0.1% to 10213
• German 10Yr yield down less than 1bp to -0.05%
• Italian 10Yr yield up less than 1bp to 1.24%
• Spanish 10Yr yield unchanged at 1.11%
• S&P GSCI Index down 0.3% to 344
• MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.4% to 135
• Nikkei 225 down 1.4% to 16383
• Hang Seng up 0.6% to 22130
• Shanghai Composite up 1.1% to 3050
• S&P/ASX 200 up less than 0.1% to 5537
• U.S. 10-yr yield down 3bps to 1.54%
• Dollar Index down 0.35% to 96.95
• WTI Crude futures down 0.7% to $42.84
• Brent Futures down 0.4% to $44.55
• Gold spot up 0.5% to $1,322
• Silver spot up 0.7% to $19.69

Top Global News

• BP Profit Sinks as Lower Oil, Weak Refining Strain Industry: refining margins were lowest for 2Q since 2010; 3Q oil and gas output will fall amid maintenance
• AB InBev Sweetens Its Offer for SABMiller to $103b: cash bid for British brewer raised to GBP45/share
• Gilead Lowers 2016 Net Product Sales Forecast; Shares Slide: cut net product sales forecast for 2016 to $29.5b-$30.5b, vs previous forecast of $30b-$31b
• Celgene Sinks as Drug Doesn’t Extend Life in Blood Cancer Type: co. said Phase 3 “Remarc” study doesn’t show survival benefit
• Sanders Backs Clinton After Fractious Opening of Convention
• Fed Said Preparing Action vs Goldman on Leak Case, N.Y. Times says: Goldman expected to pay a financial penalty to settle the case, NYT says, citing people familiar
• Nidec Said to Be Frontrunner for Emerson’s $1b Motor Unit: Broad Ocean, Wolong Electric had also expressed interest
• Texas Instruments Earnings, Forecasts Beat Views on Auto Demand: 3Q net income seen 81c-91c/share
• Amazon Partners With U.K. Government to Test Delivery by Drone: trial to test beyond line-of-sight, and obstacle avoidance

* * *

Looking at regional markets, Asian stocks traded with mixed following the weak lead from Wall Street, where energy declines dampened sentiment, with participants also cautious ahead of the looming FOMC. ASX 200 (-0.1%) was led lower by energy names after WTI crude futures fell over a buck to test the USD 43/bbl level to the downside, while Nikkei 225 (-1.4%) underperformed on a firmer JPY in which USD/JPY fell below the 105.00 handle. Elsewhere, Chinese markets led the region with the Shanghai Comp (+1.1 %) positive following another firm liquidity injection by the PBoC. 10yr JGBs traded higher amid risk averse sentiment in Japan, with further support seen following the 40yr JGB auction which despite printing a lower bid/cover, the lowest accepted price was higher and the portion of allotted bids at the lowest price was less than previous. Japan is to double planned spending in their stimulus package, with direct fiscal outlays now planned at JPY 6tln over the next few years, although this number is shy of the JPY 20tln speculated in the past few days. Japan Finance Minister Aso stated they still have to determine the size of the economic stimulus package.

Top Asian News

• Japan Fiscal Plan Calls for Continued Cooperation With BOJ: Finance chief urges BOJ to keep doing its utmost on inflation
• Yen Rallies as Optimism on Stimulus Wanes, Undercutting Dollar: Global risk aversion seen boosting yen versus all major peers
• Singapore Banks Facing Earnings Stumble as Bad Loans, Sibor Bite: Largest lenders may boost provisions for nonperforming loans
• Hyundai Posts 10th Consecutive Profit Decline on China Discounts: Domestic plant exports slump on Africa, Middle East markets
• Casino Tycoon Adelson Sees Signs of Macau Gaming Turnaround: Mass-market monthly revenue rises for first time since 2014
• HSBC Bullish on India as a Third of World’s Bond Yields Negative: Expect inflation to come off going forward, Rodrigues writes

The latest state of play across European equities (Euro Stoxx: -0.2%) has been dictated by the downside across the oil complex in which WTI crude has slipped past USD 43.00 with Brent at the lowest since May 10, subsequently adding to the risk off sentiment. As such, energy names are among the worst performers today, exacerbated by BP’s earnings (-2.7%). In terms of sectors, weakness has been seen in financials with Commerzbank (-5.8%) prelim Q2 results coming in weaker than expected. The softness in equities contributed to upside in fixed income markets, while notable outperformance has been observed in Gilts relative to its German and US counterparts in the wake of reports from BoE’s Weale who urged the need of immediate stimulus after last week’s poor Brexit exposed PMI figures.

Top European News

• Commerzbank Says Capital Ratio Falls on Operational Risk: banks see litigation risk increasing capital requirements
• BOE’s Weale Says Stimulus More Likely After Slowdown Signs Mount: Weale tells FT that weak PMI are ‘very material’ for decision
• Michelin’s Cost-Cut Plan Helps Push 1H Profit Up 11%: Chinese market will probably remain “buoyant,” Michelin says
• Vivendi Backs Out of Deal to Buy Berlusconi’s Pay-TV Business: Vivendi wants 20% of Mediaset Premium instead of full control
  Orange Earnings Cushioned by Broadband Sales Amid Mobile Rivalry
• Raiffeisen Owner to Sell Insurer Stake Amid Capital Revamp
• Man Group Assets Shrink in Second Quarter on Investment Losses

In FX, the yen strengthened 1.4 percent to 104.33 per dollar, extending a 0.3 percent climb from last session. The rebound comes after the currency weakened to a one-month low of 107.49 on July 21. “The yen’s recent weakness against the dollar has been based on the idea that both the government and the BOJ would come up with measures to stimulate the economy,” said Takuya Iwasaki, executive general manager of foreign-exchange sales at Bank of America in Tokyo. “What Aso said may have reduced expectations for action from the BOJ a bit.”  The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slid 0.4 percent, falling from the highest close since May. The Aussie and kiwi rose at least 0.7 percent versus the U.S. currency, while the euro added 0.1 percent. Sterling fell 0.3 percent to 83.96 pence per euro and 0.2 percent to $1.3120. Martin Weale, an independent member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, told the Financial Times that Brexit has rattled the economy more than he anticipated and indicated he now favors immediate stimulus.

In Commodities, oil fell to a three-month low in New York as supplies were considered to be plentiful even as stockpiles were seen deepening a record pullback in the U.S., the biggest fuel consumer. West Texas Intermediate fell 0.6 percent to $42.87 a barrel and Brent slid 0.3 percent to $44.61.

While U.S. crude inventories probably slid by 2.25 million barrels, gasoline supplies are seen increasing by 600,000 barrels, swelling stockpiles that are also at the highest in decades, according to a Bloomberg survey before an Energy Information Administration report Wednesday.

Gold climbed as investors scaled back expectations for extra stimulus from Japan’s government, boosting the yen and weakening the dollar. Bullion for immediate delivery rose 0.5 percent to $1.3222.55 an ounce, after losing 1.2 percent in two days.

Copper fell 0.5 percent as Chinese smelters expanded production amid improving margins, exacerbating global oversupply. Nickel lost 1.9 percent and zinc dropped 1.3 percent.

* * *

Bulletin Headline Summary From RanSquawk and Bloomberg

• JPY briefly tests the 104.00 level with sentiment dampened by the decline across the energy complex.
• GBP sees some reprieve with the currency initially pressured by dovish comments from BoE’s Weale.
• Highlights include US Services PMI, New Home Sales, API Crude Inventory and earnings updates from Apple, McDonald’s, and Verizon.

• s

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Ahead of a packed, albeit back-loaded calendar of events this week which includes the BoJ and Fed meetings, European bank stress tests, a slew of corporate earnings and US Q2 GDP, the last 24 hours or so in markets has been pretty quiet with yesterday’s session feeling like investors were for the most part keeping the powder dry. Wall Street did start the week on a bit of a cautious note although that was largely to do with the decent leg down for Oil which generally dominated what was otherwise a real lull in newsflow. Indeed WTI finished -2.40% lower yesterday at $43.13/bbl and at one stage briefly traded with a $42/bbl handle. It’s flown under the radar a bit but yesterday was actually the lowest closing level for WTI since April 25th. In fact after making YTD highs back in early June at just shy of $52/bbl, Oil has now fallen some 16% since with a decent amount of that coming in the last three weeks or so. Some of the commentary pointed towards the latest rig count data which came out on Friday showing that the number of active rigs rose for the fourth consecutive week. The fallout in recent weeks however appears to be a reflection of the rising gasoline stockpiles which is weighing on the wider energy complex.

Unsurprisingly then it was energy stocks which were hit hardest and resulted in the S&P 500 (-0.30%) and Dow (-0.42%) retreating from their respective record levels. In fact despite intraday moves being pretty modest of late, the S&P 500 has now reversed direction day-to-day for the last eight sessions and it seems that the big post-Brexit rally has run out of steam for now. Prior to this in Europe the Stoxx 600 (+0.18%) actually edged up a little although peripheral bourses and the FTSE MIB (-0.52%) in particular closed in the red with Italian banks under pressure once again following reports in the Italian press over the weekend that Monte Paschi is ‘most at risk’ ahead of Friday’s stress test results – although this didn’t feel like any great surprise.

Meanwhile credit markets were also under pressure yesterday, most notably in the US given the greater energy exposure with CDX IG ending the day nearly 3bps wider and so making it the weakest day this month. Staying with credit, yesterday the ECB released its latest CSPP holdings data which showed total holdings of €11.85bn at 22nd July. This implies net purchases settled last week of €1.42bn or an average daily run rate over the five days of €284m. The average daily run rate since the CSPP started is €382m so this is the first bit of evidence we’ve seen of a slowdown in the numbers as markets and the ECB move into wind-down mode for the summer.

As you’ll see at the end in the day ahead there should be a bit more for markets to feed on today. Most notable is the bumper day for corporate earnings releases with 48 S&P 500 companies due to report. As a barometer of global growth it’s worth keeping an eye on the Caterpillar numbers prior to the US open. Verizon and McDonald’s earnings will also be out early and then after the bell it’ll be all eyes on Apple where the market consensus for Q3 EPS is $1.39 which has been roughly unchanged over the last couple of months but is down from as high as $1.77 back in April.

Before we get there, this morning in Asia it’s been another fairly mixed start to trading. Losses are being led out of Japan where the Nikkei and Topix are currently -1.55% and -1.54% respectively. A rally for the Yen (+0.9%) seemingly is weighing on those bourses. Meanwhile our Japan economists noted this morning that the Nikkei newspaper has reported that the size of the forthcoming second supplementary budget for FY2016 was said to be around ¥2tn, lower than their current view of ¥3-4tn. The newspaper is also reporting that another ¥4tn is likely to be added to the initial budgets for FY2017 onward, in addition to the aforementioned ¥2tn for the FY2016 supplementary budget. Our colleagues are not sure if these expenditures worth ¥4tn are a true addition relative to the initial FY2016 budget or if they are being brought into the package to simply inflate its size – they guess the latter. The newspaper is still talking about the total size of the stimulus package, which could be announced as soon as August 2nd, as exceeding ¥20tn.

Elsewhere in Asia this morning, bourses in China are firmer with the Shanghai Comp currently +0.49%. The Hang Seng is also +0.86% while the Kospi is +0.40%. The ASX (-0.23%) is in the red however. US equity index futures are modestly higher currently and oil markets are a touch firmer.

Moving on. There was a little bit of data out yesterday for us to digest and most notable of that was the Germany IFO survey which, in line with Friday’s PMI’s, showed a similar level of post-Brexit resilience. The headline reading of 108.3 was down 0.4pts from June, although came in a reasonable way ahead of the 107.5 expected by the market. Meanwhile the current assessment reading actually rose 0.1pts to 114.7 (vs. 114.0 expected) which is the best reading since August last year, while the expectations component was down 0.9pts to 102.2 (although still ahead of expectations of 101.6). This data contrasts which the latest CBI business optimism reading in the UK which was released yesterday. The July print tumbled 42pts to -47 (vs. -15 expected) and therefore the lowest reading since January 2009 (when it got to -64).

Across the pond the only data yesterday came in the form of the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey which rose 17pts to -1.3 (vs. -10.0 expected) and the highest level since December 2014. New orders, production and employment components all rose encouragingly. It’s worth noting that the two main US economic surprise indices are now back to the highest level since December 2014 following a huge spike in positive data surprises this month. Benchmark 10y Treasuries didn’t react too much to the data yesterday and eventually finished little changed around 1.574%, although the shorter end of the curve was under pressure with 2y yields closing 3bps higher at 0.735%. This appeared to be more of a reflection of the weak 2y auction yesterday though where the bid-to-cover ratio was the weakest since December 2008 at a 2y offering.

Looking at today’s calendar it’s a pretty quiet start in Europe this morning with no real notable data to highlight. This afternoon in the US there’s a number of releases due out. The most notable of those will likely be the July consumer confidence print which the market is expecting to decline 2pts to 96. Also due out will be the remaining flash PMI’s for this month (services and composite), the Richmond Fed manufacturing survey, new home sales for June and the S&P/Case-Shiller house price index. The first day of the two-day FOMC meeting of course also starts today. As mentioned it’s a bumper day for earnings which should provide most of the excitement. Before the opening bell we’ll get quarterly reports from the likes of Caterpillar, Verizon, McDonald’s and 3M and then after the closing bell rings it’ll be all eyes on those Apple numbers. In total we’ll get 48 S&P 500 company earnings reports. Over in Europe BP highlights the earnings calendar.