July 26/Another whopper of a comex gold notice last night for today: 435 contract for 43,500 oz/ total gold standing this month: 41.437 tonnes/Japan set to do helicopter money/markets distraught as it wants more!!/Looks like England is set to have negative interest rates according to Nat West and RBS/Nigeria’s Nira collapses as oil falls into the 42 column/Huge imports of gold into the USA and England: must be filling a huge dealer deficit somewhere/

Gold:1320.70 up $1.40

Silver 19.66  up 4 cents

In the access market 5:15 pm


Silver: 19.58


For the July gold contract month,  we had ANOTHER GIGANTIC 435 notices served upon for 43,500 ounces. The total number of notices filed so far for delivery:  6880 for 688,000 oz or 21.3996 tonnes

In silver we had 71 notices served upon for 355,000 oz.  The total number of notices filed so far this month for delivery:  2350 for 11,750,000 oz

We are now entering options expiry month for gold and silver:

i)The comex options expiry TODAY July 26.

ii)The OTC options in London expire Friday at noon July 29.

So expect downward drafts in gold and silver trading until both of these contracts expire.

Let us have a look at the data for today


Several months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today, the total inventory rests at 311.698 tonnes for a gain of 9  tonnes over that period


In silver, the total open interest FELL BY ONLY 121 contracts DOWN to 220,312 AND CLOSE TO AN NEW ALL TIME RECORD AS THE  PRICE OF SILVER FELL  BY 4 CENTS IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING.In ounces, the OI is still represented by just over 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.102 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 157% of annual global silver production (ex Russia &ex China).

In silver we had 71 notices served upon for 1355,000 oz.

In gold, the total comex gold ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE 12,011 contracts despite the fact that the price of gold FELL by $3.40 yesterday. The total gold OI stands at 609,422 contracts.


With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:


we had A HUGE WITHDRAWAL  in gold inventory TO THE TUNE OF 4.46 TONNES. /

Total gold inventory rest tonight at: 954.23 tonnes


we had no changes into the SILVER INVENTORY TO THE SLV

Inventory rests at 348.580 million oz.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in silver FELL by 121 contracts DOWN to 220,312, as the price of silver FELL BY only 4 cents with YESTERDAY’S trading. The gold open interest ROSE by A WHOPPING  12,011 contracts UP to 609,422 despite the fact that  the price of gold FELL by $3.80 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING.

(report Harvey).


2 a) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark OByrne/zerohedge


i)Late  SUNDAY night/MONDAY morning: Shanghai closed up 3.02 POINTS OR 0.10%/ /Hang Sang closed up 29.17 OR 0.13%. The Nikkei closed UP 6.96 POINTS OR 0.04% Australia’s all ordinaires  CLOSED up 0.64% Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.685 /Oil fell to 43.94 dollars per barrel for WTI and 45.45 for Brent. Stocks in Europe ALL IN THE GREEN. Offshore yuan trades  6.6887 yuan to the dollar vs 6.6785 for onshore yuan.THE SPREAD BETWEEN ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE WIDENS CONSIDERABLY AS CHINA TRIES TO STOP MORE USA DOLLARS LEAVING THEIR SHORES BUT CANNOT. 



i)Last night, with the G20 over the yen surges killing off the newer yen carry traders:

( zero hedge)


ii)It is 2 am Japanese time zone and now it is time to underwhelm all markets:

( zero hedge)


iii)The Japanese plan to introduce some helicopter money underwhelmed the markets as the futures Nikkei fell as well as the USA/Yen fell  (Yen rose)

( zero hedge)


none today



Again!! this time 2 hostage takers were killed, a priest who was beheaded and one hostage taker. The killers have been neutralized:

( zero hedge)

ib) Hollande vows revenge and an all out war against iSIS:

(courtesy zero hedge)


2 a)Royal Bank of Scotland warns clients that they may face negative interest rates:

( zero hedge)

2b)And now Nat West in London: negative interest rates:

(courtesy UKTelegraph)




Credible evidence finds its way showing that the Turkish authorities raped and tortured detainees following the “failed” coup:

( zero hedge)


It is interesting when they state “do not panic”.  Actually it is the time to panic over there as the Nira collapsed:
(courtesy zero hedge)


i)As I promised you, oil would be heading south;  it just landed into the 42 dollar column’

( zero hedge)


none today


i)As I pointed out to you yesterday, the flow of gold is reversing and heading back to the west.  The most important data is from London which shows a huge importation of 68 tonnes coming from Switzerland.

(courtesy Lawrie Williams/Sharp Pixley)

ii)Mike Kosares of gold investing

(courtesy Mike Kosares/USAGold.com/GATA)

iii)A very important commentary from Paul Mylcreest.  He states that there is a stand off between the speculators and the criminal banks.  The banks are increasing their naked shorts and the longs are becoming more resolute.  He also has difficulty explaining the high contango between gold comex months especially with Libor at close to zero.

( Paul Mylcreest/GATA/ADM Investor Services)

iv)James Turk suggests it will be impossible for gold to rally past $1320 due to options expiry and the Fed FOMC meeting

( Kingworldnews/James Turk)

v)I highlighted the story yesterday from Lawrence Williams that Russia is continuing to add to its reserves.  Last month: 19 tonnes

( townhall.com)


vi)Not only is England importing a record amount of gold from Switzerland but also the USA imported 50 tonnes in May.  What is going on?  Trying to fill major cracks at the comex?

I do not know but it surely shows a major problem is surfacing:

( Steve St Angelo/SRSRocco report)



i)This is not good for the wealth effect:  House prices drop the most in 2 years:

( zero hedge)

ii)The consumer is 70% of USA GDP. Today the USA service economy tumbled over the cliff with service PMI tumbling to 5 month lows.  There is no strength to the supposed recovery in the uSA:

( zerohedge)

Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest  ROSE TO AN OI level of 609,422 for a GAIN of 12,011 contracts DESPITE THE FACT THAT  THE PRICE OF GOLD FELL BY $3.80 with YESTERDAY’S TRADING We are now in the non active month of July. As I stated yesterday: “Somebody big is continually standing for the gold metal even though July is  generally a poor delivery month. The open interest for the front July contract stands at 447 for a GAIN of 348 contracts. We had 54 notices filed on yesterday, so we gained 402 contracts or an additional 40,200 gold ounces that will stand for delivery in this non active month of July. We  are again witnessing the same scenario as in May and June whereby the front delivery month increases in OI standing for metal or a slight contraction.  The next big active contract month is August and here the OI FELL by 51,073 contracts down to 148,497 as this month continues its wind down until first day notice for the August contract, Friday,July 29/2016:less than  1 week a way.  The estimated volume today (which is just comex sales during regular business hours of 8:20 until 1:30 pm est) was VERY GOOD at 318,284. The confirmed volume  yesterday (which includes the volume during regular business hours + access market sales the previous day was VERY GOOD at 413,251 contracts.The comex is not in backwardation.
Today, we had a huge 435 notices filed for  43,500 oz in gold
And now for the wild silver comex results. Total silver OI FELL by ONLY 121 contracts from 220,433 DOWN TO 220,312.  We are now CLOSE an all time record high for silver open interest set ON FRIDAY jULY 22.: (221,246). The front active delivery month is July and here the OI fell BY 46 contracts down to 201. We had 20 notices served on YESTERDAY so we LOST 26 silver contracts or an additional 130,000 oz that will not  stand for delivery. The next non active month of August saw it’s OI fell by 11 contracts down to 456. The next big active month is September and here the OI FELL by 221 contracts DOWN to 158,267. The volume on the comex today (just comex) came in at 41,002 which is VERY GOOD. The confirmed volume yesterday (comex + globex) was EXCELLENT at 49,330. Silver is not in backwardation. London is in backwardation for several months.
We had 71 notices filed for 350,000 oz. in silver JULY contract month
:INITIAL standings for JULY
July 26.
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz   nil OZ
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz  nil
 225.05 OZ
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz  NIL
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz 
No of oz served (contracts) today
435 notices 
43500 oz
No of oz to be served (notices)
12 contracts
1200 oz
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
6880 contracts (688,000 oz)
(21.3996 tonnes)
Total accumulative withdrawals  of gold from the Dealers inventory this month   NIL
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month   829,596.9 OZ
Today we had 0 dealer DEPOSITS
total dealer deposit:NIL   0z
Today we had  0 dealer withdrawals:
total dealer withdrawals:  nil oz
We had 0 customer deposit:
Total customer deposits:nil oz
Today we had 1 customer withdrawal:
 i) Out of Manfra 225.05
7 kilobars
Total customer withdrawals 225.05  oz
Today we had 0 adjustment:
Today, 0 notices was issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 435 contracts of which 0 notices was stopped (received) by JPMorgan dealer and 435 notices was stopped (received)  by JPMorgan customer account. 
To calculate the initial total number of gold ounces standing for the JULY contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (6880) x 100 oz  or 688,000 oz , to which we  add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY  (447 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (435) x 100 oz   x 100 oz per contract equals 689,200 oz, the number of ounces standing in this active month. 
Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY. contract month:
No of notices served so far (6880) x 100 oz  or ounces + {OI for the front month (447) minus the number of  notices served upon today (435) x 100 oz which equals 689,200 oz standing in this non   active delivery month of JULY  (21.437 tonnes).
We  gained  40,200 gold ounces that will stand for metal in this non active month of July.
Since the comex allows GLD shares to be used for settling, it may take quite a while for the physical gold to enter the comex vaults.  So far I have seen little evidence of any settling of contracts but I will continue to monitor it for you. 
We now have partial evidence of gold settling for last months deliveries We now have  +  6.889 TONNES FOR MAY + 49.09 TONNES FOR JUNE +  21.437 TONNES FOR JULY + 12.3917 tonnes (April) +2.2311 tonnes (March) + 7.99 (total Feb)- .940 (probable delivery on March 1) tonnes -.0434 tonnes (March 11,12,17,18) + March 31: 1.2470 and then  April 1,2: – .0006 tonnes  and last week April 16.3203 and April 22 .(0009 tonnes) + april 29  .205 tonnes + May 5:  3.799 and May 6: 1.607 tonnes –MAY 12  .0003- May 18: 1.5635 tonnes-May 19/   2.535 tonnes-May 27 .0185 – .024 TONNES MAY 31 -jUNE 4: .5044 ; june 10 -.0008 / June 22:0.48 tonnes /June 23: 0489 tonnes, June 24..018; june 29 .036 tonnes; JUNE 30 2.49 /july 1 17.78 tonnes = 51.558 tonnes still standing against 50.893 tonnes available.
 Total dealer inventor 1,636.227.922 tonnes or 50.893 tonnes
Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) =10,020,869.340 or 311.691 tonnes 
Several months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today the total inventory rests at 311.691 tonnes for a  gain of 9  tonnes over that period. 


To me, the only thing that makes sense is the fact that “kilobars” are entries or hypothecated gold sent to other jurisdictions so that they will not be short in their derivatives like in England.  This would be similar to the gold used by Jon Corzine. If this is the case, this would be the greatest fraud perpetrated on USA soil.


And now for silver
JULY INITIAL standings
 July 26.2016
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 NIL   oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
 321,740.300 CNT
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
  NIL oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
(355,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
130 contracts
650,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 2350 contracts (11,750,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month  NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal  of silver from the Customer inventory this month  6,495,172.4 oz
today we had 1 deposit into the dealer account:
i) Into Delaware:  321,740.300 oz
total dealer deposit 321,740.300 oz
we had 0 dealer withdrawal:
total dealer withdrawals:  NIL oz
we had 0 customer withdrawals:
Total customer withdrawals: nil oz
We had 0 customer deposit:
total customer withdrawals:nil. oz
 we had 1 adjustment
i) Out of Delaware:  5,037.576 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer account of Delaware;
The total number of notices filed today for the JULY contract month is represented by 71 contracts for 355,000  oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at (2350) x 5,000 oz  = 11,750,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY (201) and the number of notices served upon today (71) x 5000 oz equals the number of ounces standing 
Thus the initial standings for silver for the JULY contract month:  2350(notices served so far)x 5000 oz +(201 OI for front month of JULY ) -number of notices served upon today (71)x 5000 oz  equals  12,400,000 oz  of silver standing for the JULY contract month.
We lost 26 contracts or 130,000 ADDITIONAL ounces will not  stand in this active month of July.
Total dealer silver:  29.293 million (close to record low inventory  
Total number of dealer and customer silver:   155.163 million oz (close to a record low)
The total open interest on silver is NOW CLOSE TO its all time high with the record of 221,246 being set July 22.2016.  The registered silver (dealer silver) is NOW NEAR  multi year lows as silver is being drawn out at both dealer and customer levels and heading to China and other destinations. The shear movement of silver into and out of the vaults signify that something is going on in silver.
And now the Gold inventory at the GLD
July 22/ no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 963.14 tonnes
July 21/ a large withdrawal of gold inventory to the tune of 2.08 tonnes/Inventory rests at 963.14 tonnes
July 20./no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 965.22 tonese
July 19/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 965.22 tonnes
July 18./ a good sized deposit of 2.37 tonnes of gld into GLD/this is a paper gold entry/inventory rests at 965.22 tonnese
July 15./no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 962.85 tonnes
July 14/a good sized withdrawal of 2.37 tonnes from the GLD/this would be a “paper withdrawal”/inventory rests tonight at 962.85 tonnes..
July 13/ we had a huge paper withdrawal of 15.98 tonnes of gold from the GLD/inventory rests at 965.22 tonnes.
July 12/we had no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 981.20 tonnes
July 11/no changes in gold inventory at the GLS/Inventory rests at 981.20 tonnes
JULY 8/ A  good sized deposit of 2.91 tonnes into the GLD/Inventory rests at 981.20
July 7/a good sized withdrawal of 4.15 tonnes from the GLD/Inventory rests at 978.29 tonnes (this was nothing but a paper entry/no physical moved)
July 5/no change in inventory/rests tonight at 982.44
July 1/a huge change in the gold inventory/ a deposit of 3.86 tonnes/rests tonight at 953.91 tonnes
JUNE 30/no change in gold inventory /inventory rests tonight at 950.05 tonnes
June 29/ a good sized deposit of 2.67 tonnes/inventory rests at 950.05 tonnes
June 28/ a huge deposit of 13.067 tonnes into inventory/new inventory rests so far at 947.38 tonnes.  This was a paper addition
June 27/a huge deposit of 18.415 tonnes into the GLD inventory/the new inventory rests at 934.313 tonnes.  The addition was a paper addition and not physical
July 26 / Inventory rests tonight at 954.23  tonnes


Now the SLV Inventory
July 22/we had no change in silver inventory at the SLV.Inventory rests at 348.580 million oz/
July 21/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 348.580 million oz
July 20/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 348.580 million oz
July 19/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 348.580 million oz
July 18/no change in silver inventory at he SLV/inventory restss at 348.580 million oz
July 15/ no change in  silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 348.580 million oz
July 14/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 348.580 million oz/
July 13./ a huge addition of 5.187 million oz into silver inventory at the SLV/ this is a paper addition as inventory rests at 348.580 million oz
July 12/ a huge addition of 1.94 million oz into silver inventory at the SLV/a “paper” addition/inventory rests at 343.393 million oz
July 11/no changes in silver inventory/rests tonight at 341.453 million oz
JULY 8/no change in silver inventory/rests tonight at 341.453 million oz
July 7./no change in silver inventory/inventory rests at 341.453 million oz
july 5/no change in silver inventory/inventory rests at 333.554 milllion oz
july 1/no change in silver inventory/inventory rests at 333.544 million oz
JUNE 30/no changes in silver inventory/inventory rests at 333.544 million oz
June 29/ a small deposit of 760,000 oz/Inventory rests tonight at 333.544 million oz/
June 28/no change in silver inventory/rests tonight at 332.784 million oz
June 27/ a small deposit of 570,000 oz in the SLV inventory/Inventory rests at 332.784 million oz
July 26.2016: Inventory 348.580 million oz

NPV for Sprott and Central Fund of Canada

1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative 5.7 percent to NAV usa funds and Negative 6.0% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!!  (the discount is starting to disappear)
Percentage of fund in gold 59.1%
Percentage of fund in silver:39.7%
cash .+1.2%( July 26/2016). 
2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): Premium rises  to -0.21%!!!! NAV (July26/2016) 
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  rises TO  0.34% to NAV  ( July 26/2016)
Note: Sprott silver trust back  into NEGATIVE territory at -0.21% /Sprott physical gold trust is back into positive territory at +0.34%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail.


And now your overnight trading in gold,TUESDAY MORNING and also physical stories that may interest you:

Trading in gold and silver overnight in Asia and Europe
Mark O’Byrne/David Russell


“Could Not Invent A More Bullish Story For Gold…”

Newstalk’s Nick Bullman interviewed GoldCore’s Mark O’Byrne on “Down To Business” at 0643 this morning.newstalkradioT

the interview on Breakfast (06:30 – 09:00) begins in the 14th minute (Part I) and can be listened to here

Topics covered were:
– Gold’s performance so far in 2016 – +23% in USD, +24% in EUR and +40% in GBP
– Gold acting as a hedge against fiat currencies
– “Could not invent a more bullish story for gold”
– Economic recoveries are tentative and leading to ultra loose monetary policies
– A lot of strong fundamentals including negative interest rates, polarisation of politics and “Clash of Civilisations”
– Short term risks with FOMC, Yellen and options expiration – may create short term risks
– Gold can rise even if dollar continues to rise
– Gold mining shares are up 80%. Are they over valued?
– Mining shares are more high risk and volatile than gold
– Allocation of 20% to gold merited given risks
– “Most of new buying from pension funds and companies”
–  Avoid ETFs and paper gold – Have absolute legal title to physical gold

The interview can be listened to here


Gold and Silver Bullion – News and Prices

Gold edges up as dollar slips ahead of Fed meet (Reuters)

Gold Gains as Dollar Dips Before Fed, Official Sees BOE Stimulus (Bloomberg)

Gold ends lower as expectations grow for interest-rate hike later this year (Marketwatch)

Top credit ratings agency declares European Union “unsustainable” (Cityam)

Wall St. declines as earnings take center stage (Reuters)

SWOT Analysis: Is There Increased Political Risk Building into the Gold Market? (Goldseek)

An ‘insane’ number of catalysts are poised to roil vulnerable markets this week (Marketwatch)

Brexit and the City (Moneyweek)

The Brexit vote is over and the UK is fine – let’s stop the negativity (Telegraph)

“Central Bankers Are Killing Capitalism” Odey Warns, Moving Politics “Fast To Extremes” (Zerohedge)

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

26 July: USD 1,321.25, EUR 1,199.563 & GBP 1,006.396 per ounce
25 July: USD 1,315.00, EUR 1,196.913 & GBP 1,000.321 per ounce
22 July: USD 1,323.20, EUR 1,199.216 & GBP 1,005.103 per ounce
21 July: USD 1,322.00, EUR 1,199.318 & GBP 1,000.754 per ounce
20 July: USD 1,325.60, EUR 1,204.308 & GBP 1,005.865 per ounce
19 July: USD 1,332.20, EUR 1,203.376 & GBP 1,009.042 per ounce
18 July: USD 1,326.15, EUR 1,200.298 & GBP 1,000.050 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

26 July: USD 19.68, EUR 17.89 & GBP 15.00 per ounce
25 July: USD 19.41, EUR 17.66 & GBP 14.77 per ounce
22 July: USD 19.70, EUR 17.87 & GBP 15.03 per ounce
21 July: USD 19.34, EUR 17.55 & GBP 14.66 per ounce
20 July: USD 19.70, EUR 17.88 & GBP 14.95 per ounce
19 July: USD 19.99, EUR 18.07 & GBP 15.18 per ounce
18 July: USD 19.72, EUR 17.83 & GBP 14.89 per ounce

Recent Market Updates

– Gold In Bull Market – “Every Reason For It To Continue” – Frisby In Money Week
– Is Gold Set To Hit $1,500 Per Ounce?
– Why Italy’s bank crisis could be a ‘ticking time bomb’
– Gold Holds Near Two-Week Low as Risk Appetite Rises on U.S. Data
– IMF Scraps Forecast for Global-Growth Pickup on Brexit Fallout
– Gold, Trump and Rates: Bank That Foresaw Rally Flags $1,500
– Gold Lower After Central Bank’s Surprise Move
– “We Are On the Cusp of an Explosion in the Silver Price” – John Embry

– Stocks Rally – Is Brexit Systemic Risks Contained?
– Britain has a new prime minister – here’s what that means for you
– Metals Caught Between Global Gloom, U.S. Job Gains as Gold Slips
– Central Bank Resumes Monthly Gold Buying in Bid to Diversify Reserves



As I pointed out to you yesterday, the flow of gold is reversing and heading back to the west.  The most important data is from London which shows a huge importation of 68 tonnes coming from Switzerland.

(courtesy Lawrie Williams/Sharp Pixley)

Lawrie Williams: Swiss gold stats show continuing flows back to West


3:23p ET Monday, July 25, 2016

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Lawrie Williams, market analyst for the Sharps Pixley bullion house in London, writes today that the flow of gold out of Asia and back into Switzerland and London is continuing, apparently because of demand in the West for metal represented by shares of exchange-traded funds. Williams’ commentary is headlined “June Swiss Gold Statistics Highlight Continuing Reverse Gold Flows” and it’s posted at Sharps Pixley’s Internet site here:


CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.




Not only is England importing a record amount of gold from Switzerland but also the USA imported 50 tonnes in May.  What is going on?  Trying to fill major cracks at the comex?

I do not know but it surely shows a major problem is surfacing:

(courtesy Steve St Angelo/SRSRocco report)


WHAT’S GOING ON??? Record Swiss Gold Flow Into The United States

by SRSrocco on July 25, 2016

There was a huge trend change in U.S. gold investment in May.  Something quite extraordinary took place which hasn’t happened for several decades.  While Switzerland has been a major source of U.S. gold exports for many years, the tables turned in May as the Swiss exported a record amount of gold to the United States.

How much gold?  A lot.  The Swiss exported 50 times more gold in May than their monthly average (0.4 mt) since 2015:


As we can see, the Swiss gold exports to the United States are normally less than 0.5 metric ton a month.  And for many months there weren’t any gold exports.  However, something big changed in May as Swiss gold exports surged to 20.7 mt (665.500 oz).

The overwhelming majority of gold flows from the U.S. have been exports to Switzerland and the United Kingdom (U.K.):

Top U.S. Gold Exports 2001-2013

Furthermore, as I have mentioned in precious articles, the U.S. has been exporting more gold than it produces and imports.  However, this changed in May as the Swiss exported more gold to the U.S. in one month than they have every year going back until 2000 :

U.S.-Gold-Imports-From-Swittzerland- (Aunnual)

Why the big change?  Could this have had something to do with the huge gold price since the beginning of 2016, or maybe was it due to political changes such as the upcoming BREXIT vote in June?  Of course the BREXIT vote is now history as the British citizens voted to leave the European Union.

However, something motivated this huge trend change in normal gold movements to Switzerland.  Moreover, total U.S. gold imports in may shot up to 50 metric tons, almost double the 26.5 mt figure in April.  In addition, total U.S. gold exports hit a low May as only 20.2 mt were shipped to foreign countries.  Total U.S. gold exports Jan-May 2016 of 139 mt are down 28% compared to 195 mt exported during the same period in 2015.

So what’s going on here?  Why the declining U.S. gold exports or surging gold imports from Switzerland?  Are foreign countries demand less gold??  I doubt it.  Or how about the massive increase in supposed gold flows into the Global Gold ETFs & Funds??  While there is no way of knowing how much gold these Gold ETFs & Funds hold, something seriously changed in May as the Swiss exported more gold to the U.S. in one month than they have every year for several decades.

Are wealthy Americans finally acquiring a lot more gold?

It will be interesting to see that data for the next few months when the USGS releases their Gold Mineral Industry Surveys.





Mike Kosares of gold investing

(courtesy Mike Kosares/USAGold.com/GATA)

Mike Kosares: In Bankrate survey, 1 in 6 choose gold for 10-year investment


By Michael Kosares
USAGold.com, Centennial, Colorado
Monday, July 25, 2016

One in six investors chose gold as the best place to park money they wouldn’t need for more than 10 years — the same number that chose stocks, according to a recent Bankrate survey. Another 6 percent chose bonds, while 25 percent chose real estate and 23 percent said they would simply bank the money.

To the typical Wall Streeter, these results represent a world turned upside down. CNBC’s Jim Cramer took one look at the results and lamented, “As someone who has lived and breathed stocks for most of my life, this is a horrendous finding. But it’s not surprising.” …

… For the remainder of the commentary:




A very important commentary from Paul Mylcreest.  He states that there is a stand off between the speculators and the criminal banks.  The banks are increasing their naked shorts and the longs are becoming more resolute.  He also has difficulty explaining the high contango between gold comex months especially with Libor at close to zero.

(courtesy Paul Mylcreest/GATA/ADM Investor Services)

Paul Mylchreest: Standoff in gold between speculators and price-suppressing banks


3:09p ET Monday, July 25, 2016

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Market analyst Paul Mylchreest of ADM Investor Services International in London —


— writes in the firm’s Equity & Cross Asset Strategy letter today that there’s a standoff in the gold futures market between the bullion banks and speculators; that the banks appear to have increased their naked shorting of gold to contain the price, anticipating that they will smash the price, panic the speculators into selling, and cover their shorts, as they often have done; but that there were three episodes during gold’s bull market from 2001 through 2011 when this tactic of the banks failed and gold “went parabolic.”

Mylchreest adds that speculators in recent months have been “far more resolute.”

Mylchreest’s letter is headlined “Gold Futures — Critical Days in the Battle (Not the War)” and with his kind permission it’s posted in PDF format at GATA’s Internet site here:


CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.




James Turk suggests it will be impossible for gold to rally past $1320 due to options expiry and the Fed FOMC meeting

(courtesy Kingworldnews/James Turk)

Events are against monetary metals this week, Turk tells KWN


6:04p ET Monday, July 25, 2016

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Events are against the monetary metals this week, GoldMoney founder and GATA consultant James Turk tells King World News today. Turk adds that if the metals show any strength at all this week, it will be a sign that governments are losing control of the market. An excerpt from the interview is posted at KWN here:

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.




I highlighted the story yesterday from Lawrence Williams that Russia is continuing to add to its reserves.  Last month: 19 tonnes

(courtesy townhall.com)

Russia Adds 19 Tons of Gold to Reserves in June

http://townhall.com/columnists/bgascmetals http://townhall.com/columnists/bgascmetals

BGASC Metals


Posted: Jul 26, 2016 12:01 AM

Russia Adds 19 Tons  of Gold to Reserves in June

Russia Adds 19 Tons of Gold to Reserves in June

Russia Continues to Lead the World’s Central Banks in Gold Purchases

The Russian Central Bank announced this week that its gold reserves had reached 48.2 million troy ounces (approximately 1,500 metric tons). The total included an additional 600,000 ounces (approximately 19 tons) of gold added in June.

Over the past two years, Russia has led the world in adding gold to her central bank reserves, ahead of the People’s Bank of China, the central bank that has added the second largest of amount of gold.

The Central Bank of Russia added a record 208 tons of gold to reserves in 2015. Last year Russia suffered financially as international sanctions and plummeting oil prices took their toll on the rouble and the inflation rate reached double digits. According to the World Bank, oil is by far Russia’s largest export and represents about 15-20% of Russia’s GDP and the majority of government revenues. 2016 has started off better for Russia. The price of oil and gold have increased significantly in 2016 and have helped Russia improve its financial situation and reserves.

The pace of Russia’s gold purchases has remained relatively steady over the past two years. In May, Russia added ‘just’ 100,000 ounces (approximately 3 tons) to her reserves, the lowest amount that Russia had added since May 2015. Also in May, the Chinese central bank announced that it had added no gold to its reserves. The cessation of the People’s Bank of China’s gold purchases and the relatively small amount of gold added by the Central Bank of Russia in May, caused some gold market observers to suspect that both central banks were winding down their gold purchases, perhaps in reaction to the increasing price of gold.

Earlier this month, the People’s Bank of China announced that it had added 480,000 ounces (approximately 15 tons) of gold to her reserves in June.

Russia Adds Gold To Reserves Despite Economic Weakness

Despite the weakness in the Russian economy, the Russian Central Bank has bolstered its foreign reserves from about $350 billion a year ago to over $390 billion at the end of June 2016. The Russian Central Bank has a stated goal of increasing reserves to about $500 billion in the coming years.

As of June 30 2016, gold constituted about 13% of the Central Bank of Russia’s $392 billion reserves with her gold hoard valued at approximately $51 billion.

russian gold reserves  june 2015 - june 2016 bgasc

http://townhall.com/columnists/bgascmetals/2016/07/26/rus sia-adds-19-tons-of-gold-to-reserves-in-june-n2197657


Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight




2 Nikkei closed DOWN 237.25  OR 1.43% /USA: YEN FALLS TO 104.35

3. Europe stocks opened ALL IN THE RED EXCEPT LONDON    /USA dollar index DOWN to 96.95/Euro UP to 1.1015

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO  -.266%     !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 104.35

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI::  42.70  and Brent: 44.40

3f Gold UP  /Yen UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN for Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10 yr bund FALLS to -.051%   German bunds BASICALLY negative yields from  10+ years out

 Greece  sees its 2 year rate RISE to 8.09%/: 

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISE to  : 7.91%   (YIELD CURVE NOW  FLAT TO INVERTED)

3k Gold at $1320.75/silver $19.66(6:45 am est)   SILVER FINAL RESISTANCE AT $18.50 BROKEN 

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 5/100 in  roubles/dollar) 64.85-

3m oil into the 42 dollar handle for WTI and 44 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation  (already upon us). This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/China forced to do QE!! as it lowers its yuan value to the dollar/GOT a SMALL REVALUATION UPWARD from POBC.


30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9852 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0848 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.


3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLS to  -0.0510%

/German 10+ year rate BASICALLY  negative%!!!


The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”.  Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.546% early this morning. Thirty year rate  at 2.254% /POLICY ERROR)

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)


USDJPY Plunges On Japan Stimulus Concerns; US Futures Flat With As Fed Begins Meeting

In a turbulent session for FX, the Yen soared as much as 1.4%, the most in three weeks, after Finance Minister Aso says the government will “leave actual policy measures to BOJ”, sending the Nikkei lower by 1.4%. European stocks and U.S. equity index futures are little changed despite the slide in the key carry pair as the Fed starts its two day meeting.

The GBP/USD sold off in early trading following an FT report that BOE’s
Weale favors immediate stimulus, however sterling rebound and erased all
losses in subsequent trading.

The Yen surged started following early press reports, subsequently confirmed by Japan’s finance minister that the government has yet to decide on a fiscal stimulus package, spurring traders to temper expectations. This takes place after aggressive jawboning in recent weeks that Japan may be on the cusp of unleashing helicopter money, with Aso effectively pouring cold water on expectations of a massive fiscal stimulus funded by the BOJ. The result was a plunge in the Yen, which dropped to the lowest levels since the dramatic buying spree in the aftermath of Bernanke’s visit to Japan.

While economists predict the Bank of Japan will ease policy this week, Aso’s comments cast doubt over coordinated efforts by Japanese officials.

“Reports in the local media (Nikkei) and Aso’s comments suggest the Japanese fiscal stimulus package may fall well short of expectations, further dampening hopes of an aggressive, coordinated approach to easing in the near term,” says Sue Trinh, head of Asia FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets.

Bernard Aw, a strategist at IG Asia Pte, reiterated the concern: “Expectations of additional monetary and fiscal stimulus might have been tempered, especially when much was riding on Abe’s stimulus plan. We could also see the Fed trying to strike a balance between sounding upbeat about U.S. economic outlook and curbing exuberance about rate-hike hopes in September.”

“The market is cautious due to risk of policy disappointment,” said Neil Jones, head of hedge fund sales at Mizuho Bank Ltd. in London. “The BOJ may do nothing and the Fed may take on a more dovish angle.”

The Stoxx 600 dropped 0.2% in early trading, with volumes 31% below the 30-day average. BP lost 2.7%, down from a one-month high, led by energy shares after BP Plc reported profit that missed estimates.  Lenders declined with Commerzbank AG down 6.1 percent after saying a key measure of financial strength dropped in the second quarter. Italian banks fell, taking the national FTSE MIB Index to the biggest slide among western-European markets, before regulators publish their latest health check on the region’s largest banks on July 29. “We’ve pushed equities up an awful long way over the last few weeks, more than most people had expected,” said Peter Dixon, global equities economist at Commerzbank AG in London. “We are hanging around waiting for something to give us a lift.”

In the U.S., traders have boosted bets the Federal Reserve will raise
rates this year, even though they are likely to keep them on hold
Wednesday.  S&P 500 futures were basically unchanged, down 0.1% after falling Monday
from last week’s record-high close. Gilead Sciences Inc. fell 4.4
percent in early New York trading after cutting its annual product sales forecast and reporting lower-than-expected sales in the second quarter for its hepatitis C drugs.

Yields on 10-year Treasury notes fell for the first time in three days, sliding three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 1.55 percent. In Germany, yields on similar-maturity debt fell for a fourth day, dropping one basis point to minus 0.05 percent. U.K. gilts also rose, with the 10-year yield falling three basis points to 0.78 percent.

In commodities, the story remained one of oil weakness as crude fell to a three-month low in New York as supplies were considered to be plentiful even as stockpiles were seen deepening a record pullback in the U.S., the biggest fuel consumer. West Texas Intermediate fell 0.6 percent to $42.87 a barrel and Brent slid 0.3 percent to $44.61. While U.S. crude inventories probably slid by 2.25 million barrels, gasoline supplies are seen increasing by 600,000 barrels, swelling stockpiles that are also at the highest in decades, according to a Bloomberg survey before an Energy Information Administration report Wednesday.

Communications Inc., McDonald’s Corp. and Apple Inc. are among 45
companies in the S&P 500 reporting earnings on Tuesday. Profits and
sales have broadly topped projections so far this season, and analysts
have eased their estimates for declines in net income, expecting a 4.5
percent slide for the second quarter for S&P 500 members.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down less than 0.1% to 2162
  • Stoxx 600 down less than 0.1% to 341
  • FTSE 100 up 0.3% to 6729
  • DAX up 0.1% to 10213
  • German 10Yr yield down less than 1bp to -0.05%
  • Italian 10Yr yield up less than 1bp to 1.24%
  • Spanish 10Yr yield unchanged at 1.11%
  • S&P GSCI Index down 0.3% to 344
  • MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.4% to 135
  • Nikkei 225 down 1.4% to 16383
  • Hang Seng up 0.6% to 22130
  • Shanghai Composite up 1.1% to 3050
  • S&P/ASX 200 up less than 0.1% to 5537
  • U.S. 10-yr yield down 3bps to 1.54%
  • Dollar Index down 0.35% to 96.95
  • WTI Crude futures down 0.7% to $42.84
  • Brent Futures down 0.4% to $44.55
  • Gold spot up 0.5% to $1,322
  • Silver spot up 0.7% to $19.69

Top Global News

  • BP Profit Sinks as Lower Oil, Weak Refining Strain Industry: refining margins were lowest for 2Q since 2010; 3Q oil and gas output will fall amid maintenance
  • AB InBev Sweetens Its Offer for SABMiller to $103b: cash bid for British brewer raised to GBP45/share
  • Gilead Lowers 2016 Net Product Sales Forecast; Shares Slide: cut net product sales forecast for 2016 to $29.5b-$30.5b, vs previous forecast of $30b-$31b
  • Celgene Sinks as Drug Doesn’t Extend Life in Blood Cancer Type: co. said Phase 3 “Remarc” study doesn’t show survival benefit
  • Sanders Backs Clinton After Fractious Opening of Convention
  • Fed Said Preparing Action vs Goldman on Leak Case, N.Y. Times says: Goldman expected to pay a financial penalty to settle the case, NYT says, citing people familiar
  • Nidec Said to Be Frontrunner for Emerson’s $1b Motor Unit: Broad Ocean, Wolong Electric had also expressed interest
  • Texas Instruments Earnings, Forecasts Beat Views on Auto Demand: 3Q net income seen 81c-91c/share
  • Amazon Partners With U.K. Government to Test Delivery by Drone: trial to test beyond line-of-sight, and obstacle avoidance

* * *

Looking at regional markets, Asian stocks traded with mixed following the weak lead from Wall Street, where energy declines dampened sentiment, with participants also cautious ahead of the looming FOMC. ASX 200 (-0.1%) was led lower by energy names after WTI crude futures fell over a buck to test the USD 43/bbl level to the downside, while Nikkei 225 (-1.4%) underperformed on a firmer JPY in which USD/JPY fell below the 105.00 handle. Elsewhere, Chinese markets led the region with the Shanghai Comp (+1.1 %) positive following another firm liquidity injection by the PBoC. 10yr JGBs traded higher amid risk averse sentiment in Japan, with further support seen following the 40yr JGB auction which despite printing a lower bid/cover, the lowest accepted price was higher and the portion of allotted bids at the lowest price was less than previous. Japan is to double planned spending in their stimulus package, with direct fiscal outlays now planned at JPY 6tln over the next few years, although this number is shy of the JPY 20tln speculated in the past few days. Japan Finance Minister Aso stated they still have to determine the size of the economic stimulus package.

Top Asian News

  • Japan Fiscal Plan Calls for Continued Cooperation With BOJ: Finance chief urges BOJ to keep doing its utmost on inflation
  • Yen Rallies as Optimism on Stimulus Wanes, Undercutting Dollar: Global risk aversion seen boosting yen versus all major peers
  • Singapore Banks Facing Earnings Stumble as Bad Loans, Sibor Bite: Largest lenders may boost provisions for nonperforming loans
  • Hyundai Posts 10th Consecutive Profit Decline on China Discounts: Domestic plant exports slump on Africa, Middle East markets
  • Casino Tycoon Adelson Sees Signs of Macau Gaming Turnaround: Mass-market monthly revenue rises for first time since 2014
  • HSBC Bullish on India as a Third of World’s Bond Yields Negative: Expect inflation to come off going forward, Rodrigues writes

The latest state of play across European equities (Euro Stoxx: -0.2%) has been dictated by the downside across the oil complex in which WTI crude has slipped past USD 43.00 with Brent at the lowest since May 10, subsequently adding to the risk off sentiment. As such, energy names are among the worst performers today, exacerbated by BP’s earnings (-2.7%). In terms of sectors, weakness has been seen in financials with Commerzbank (-5.8%) prelim Q2 results coming in weaker than expected. The softness in equities contributed to upside in fixed income markets, while notable outperformance has been observed in Gilts relative to its German and US counterparts in the wake of reports from BoE’s Weale who urged the need of immediate stimulus after last week’s poor Brexit exposed PMI figures.

Top European News

  • Commerzbank Says Capital Ratio Falls on Operational Risk: banks see litigation risk increasing capital requirements
  • BOE’s Weale Says Stimulus More Likely After Slowdown Signs Mount: Weale tells FT that weak PMI are ‘very material’ for decision
  • Michelin’s Cost-Cut Plan Helps Push 1H Profit Up 11%: Chinese market will probably remain “buoyant,” Michelin says
  • Vivendi Backs Out of Deal to Buy Berlusconi’s Pay-TV Business: Vivendi wants 20% of Mediaset Premium instead of full control
    Orange Earnings Cushioned by Broadband Sales Amid Mobile Rivalry
  • Raiffeisen Owner to Sell Insurer Stake Amid Capital Revamp
  • Man Group Assets Shrink in Second Quarter on Investment Losses

In FX, the yen strengthened 1.4 percent to 104.33 per dollar, extending a 0.3 percent climb from last session. The rebound comes after the currency weakened to a one-month low of 107.49 on July 21. “The yen’s recent weakness against the dollar has been based on the idea that both the government and the BOJ would come up with measures to stimulate the economy,” said Takuya Iwasaki, executive general manager of foreign-exchange sales at Bank of America in Tokyo. “What Aso said may have reduced expectations for action from the BOJ a bit.”  The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slid 0.4 percent, falling from the highest close since May. The Aussie and kiwi rose at least 0.7 percent versus the U.S. currency, while the euro added 0.1 percent. Sterling fell 0.3 percent to 83.96 pence per euro and 0.2 percent to $1.3120. Martin Weale, an independent member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, told the Financial Times that Brexit has rattled the economy more than he anticipated and indicated he now favors immediate stimulus.

In Commodities, oil fell to a three-month low in New York as supplies were considered to be plentiful even as stockpiles were seen deepening a record pullback in the U.S., the biggest fuel consumer. West Texas Intermediate fell 0.6 percent to $42.87 a barrel and Brent slid 0.3 percent to $44.61.

While U.S. crude inventories probably slid by 2.25 million barrels, gasoline supplies are seen increasing by 600,000 barrels, swelling stockpiles that are also at the highest in decades, according to a Bloomberg survey before an Energy Information Administration report Wednesday.

Gold climbed as investors scaled back expectations for extra stimulus from Japan’s government, boosting the yen and weakening the dollar. Bullion for immediate delivery rose 0.5 percent to $1.3222.55 an ounce, after losing 1.2 percent in two days.

Copper fell 0.5 percent as Chinese smelters expanded production amid improving margins, exacerbating global oversupply. Nickel lost 1.9 percent and zinc dropped 1.3 percent.

* * *

Bulletin Headline Summary From RanSquawk and Bloomberg

  • JPY briefly tests the 104.00 level with sentiment dampened by the decline across the energy complex.
  • GBP sees some reprieve with the currency initially pressured by dovish comments from BoE’s Weale.
  • Highlights include US Services PMI, New Home Sales, API Crude Inventory and earnings updates from Apple, McDonald’s, and Verizon.
  • s

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Ahead of a packed, albeit back-loaded calendar of events this week which includes the BoJ and Fed meetings, European bank stress tests, a slew of corporate earnings and US Q2 GDP, the last 24 hours or so in markets has been pretty quiet with yesterday’s session feeling like investors were for the most part keeping the powder dry. Wall Street did start the week on a bit of a cautious note although that was largely to do with the decent leg down for Oil which generally dominated what was otherwise a real lull in newsflow. Indeed WTI finished -2.40% lower yesterday at $43.13/bbl and at one stage briefly traded with a $42/bbl handle. It’s flown under the radar a bit but yesterday was actually the lowest closing level for WTI since April 25th. In fact after making YTD highs back in early June at just shy of $52/bbl, Oil has now fallen some 16% since with a decent amount of that coming in the last three weeks or so. Some of the commentary pointed towards the latest rig count data which came out on Friday showing that the number of active rigs rose for the fourth consecutive week. The fallout in recent weeks however appears to be a reflection of the rising gasoline stockpiles which is weighing on the wider energy complex.

Unsurprisingly then it was energy stocks which were hit hardest and resulted in the S&P 500 (-0.30%) and Dow (-0.42%) retreating from their respective record levels. In fact despite intraday moves being pretty modest of late, the S&P 500 has now reversed direction day-to-day for the last eight sessions and it seems that the big post-Brexit rally has run out of steam for now. Prior to this in Europe the Stoxx 600 (+0.18%) actually edged up a little although peripheral bourses and the FTSE MIB (-0.52%) in particular closed in the red with Italian banks under pressure once again following reports in the Italian press over the weekend that Monte Paschi is ‘most at risk’ ahead of Friday’s stress test results – although this didn’t feel like any great surprise.

Meanwhile credit markets were also under pressure yesterday, most notably in the US given the greater energy exposure with CDX IG ending the day nearly 3bps wider and so making it the weakest day this month. Staying with credit, yesterday the ECB released its latest CSPP holdings data which showed total holdings of €11.85bn at 22nd July. This implies net purchases settled last week of €1.42bn or an average daily run rate over the five days of €284m. The average daily run rate since the CSPP started is €382m so this is the first bit of evidence we’ve seen of a slowdown in the numbers as markets and the ECB move into wind-down mode for the summer.

As you’ll see at the end in the day ahead there should be a bit more for markets to feed on today. Most notable is the bumper day for corporate earnings releases with 48 S&P 500 companies due to report. As a barometer of global growth it’s worth keeping an eye on the Caterpillar numbers prior to the US open. Verizon and McDonald’s earnings will also be out early and then after the bell it’ll be all eyes on Apple where the market consensus for Q3 EPS is $1.39 which has been roughly unchanged over the last couple of months but is down from as high as $1.77 back in April.

Before we get there, this morning in Asia it’s been another fairly mixed start to trading. Losses are being led out of Japan where the Nikkei and Topix are currently -1.55% and -1.54% respectively. A rally for the Yen (+0.9%) seemingly is weighing on those bourses. Meanwhile our Japan economists noted this morning that the Nikkei newspaper has reported that the size of the forthcoming second supplementary budget for FY2016 was said to be around ¥2tn, lower than their current view of ¥3-4tn. The newspaper is also reporting that another ¥4tn is likely to be added to the initial budgets for FY2017 onward, in addition to the aforementioned ¥2tn for the FY2016 supplementary budget. Our colleagues are not sure if these expenditures worth ¥4tn are a true addition relative to the initial FY2016 budget or if they are being brought into the package to simply inflate its size – they guess the latter. The newspaper is still talking about the total size of the stimulus package, which could be announced as soon as August 2nd, as exceeding ¥20tn.

Elsewhere in Asia this morning, bourses in China are firmer with the Shanghai Comp currently +0.49%. The Hang Seng is also +0.86% while the Kospi is +0.40%. The ASX (-0.23%) is in the red however. US equity index futures are modestly higher currently and oil markets are a touch firmer.

Moving on. There was a little bit of data out yesterday for us to digest and most notable of that was the Germany IFO survey which, in line with Friday’s PMI’s, showed a similar level of post-Brexit resilience. The headline reading of 108.3 was down 0.4pts from June, although came in a reasonable way ahead of the 107.5 expected by the market. Meanwhile the current assessment reading actually rose 0.1pts to 114.7 (vs. 114.0 expected) which is the best reading since August last year, while the expectations component was down 0.9pts to 102.2 (although still ahead of expectations of 101.6). This data contrasts which the latest CBI business optimism reading in the UK which was released yesterday. The July print tumbled 42pts to -47 (vs. -15 expected) and therefore the lowest reading since January 2009 (when it got to -64).

Across the pond the only data yesterday came in the form of the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey which rose 17pts to -1.3 (vs. -10.0 expected) and the highest level since December 2014. New orders, production and employment components all rose encouragingly. It’s worth noting that the two main US economic surprise indices are now back to the highest level since December 2014 following a huge spike in positive data surprises this month. Benchmark 10y Treasuries didn’t react too much to the data yesterday and eventually finished little changed around 1.574%, although the shorter end of the curve was under pressure with 2y yields closing 3bps higher at 0.735%. This appeared to be more of a reflection of the weak 2y auction yesterday though where the bid-to-cover ratio was the weakest since December 2008 at a 2y offering.

Looking at today’s calendar it’s a pretty quiet start in Europe this morning with no real notable data to highlight. This afternoon in the US there’s a number of releases due out. The most notable of those will likely be the July consumer confidence print which the market is expecting to decline 2pts to 96. Also due out will be the remaining flash PMI’s for this month (services and composite), the Richmond Fed manufacturing survey, new home sales for June and the S&P/Case-Shiller house price index. The first day of the two-day FOMC meeting of course also starts today. As mentioned it’s a bumper day for earnings which should provide most of the excitement. Before the opening bell we’ll get quarterly reports from the likes of Caterpillar, Verizon, McDonald’s and 3M and then after the closing bell rings it’ll be all eyes on those Apple numbers. In total we’ll get 48 S&P 500 company earnings reports. Over in Europe BP highlights the earnings calendar.


i)Late  MONDAY night/TUESDAY morning: Shanghai closed up 34.33 POINTS OR 1.14%/ /Hang Sang closed up 136.29 OR 0.62%. The Nikkei closed DOWN 237.25 POINTS OR 1.43% Australia’s all ordinaires  CLOSED up 0.07% Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.6743 /Oil fell to 42.75 dollars per barrel for WTI and 44.42 for Brent. Stocks in Europe ALL IN THE GREEN EXCEPT LONDON. Offshore yuan trades  6.6779 yuan to the dollar vs 6.6743 for onshore yuan.THE SPREAD BETWEEN ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE NARROWS CONSIDERABLY AS CHINA TRIES TO STOP MORE USA DOLLARS LEAVING THEIR SHORES  



Last night, with the G20 over the yen surges killing off the newer yen carry traders:

(courtesy zero hedge)

With G20 Over, FX Market Chaos Resumes: Yen Surge, Yuan Purge

Once again the ‘fake’ FX stability of pre-geopolitical-events has ben shattered now that the G-20 meetings ended with their usual un-fanfare of nothingness (and rising discord). After exuberant status-quo-supporting weakness in the Yen and stability in the Yuan (against the dollar), that’s all coming unglued rapidly in the last 36 hours as USDJPY tests back to a 104 handle and Yuan resumes its weakening trend

As Bloomberg notes, history shows that the Chinese currency usually strengthens ahead of major political or economic events, such as President Xi Jinping’s state visits to the U.S. and the Boao Forum.

And sure enough, as soon as G-20 is overm Yuan starts to weaken again…

And USDJPY has tumbled back to a 104 handle… (down 3 handles from pre-G-20 highs), back below Brexit levels…

As a reminder, geopolitical risks are surging…(and not priced in)




It is 2 am Japanese time zone and now it is time to underwhelm all markets:

(courtesy zero hedge)


It’s 2am In Japan, Time For Nikkei To Drop Another Tape Bomb

Yesterday at 2am local time, Japan’s Nikkei reported a doubling of stimulus being proposed (to 6 trillion yen) after Goldman suggest 3 trillion was not enough. That spiked USDJPY briefly. Today, at 2am, Nikkei decided to try it again… announcing that “BoJ officials said to be leaning more toward easing,” and sure enough USDJPY spiked…



As Nikkei reports,

Support is growing within the Bank of Japan for further monetary easing ahead of the two-day policy board meeting set to begin Thursday.


Such new easing would complement an upcoming government spending package, bolstering efforts to shore up Japan’s economy and prices amid mounting global uncertainty stirred by issues including the U.K.’s vote to leave the European Union.


Top officials are looking at multiple proposals. The main options are to cut interest rates beyond the current level of minus 0.1%, buy more Japanese government bonds on top of the current 80 trillion yen annually or expand purchases of other assets, such as exchange-traded funds.

As Bloomberg summarizes:

  • Commercial banks oppose further negative rates
  • Some govt officials advise against further negative rates
  • Still, ETF purchases alone seen as insufficient
  • Some in bank are starting to argue for more cooperation with govt
  • Other policy board members likely to object to any of the proposals, saying current policy is still working and current level of cooperation is sufficient

So absolutely nothing new, but just enough to get the algos moving and generate some positive momentum. It didn’t work yesterday, and for now doesn’t seem to be working today.




The Japanese plan to introduce some helicopter money underwhelmed the markets as tthe futures Nikkei fell as well as the USA/Yen fell  (Yen rose)

(courtesy zero hedge)

Stocks Slide After Japan’s “Helicopter Money” Plan Leaks, Underwhelms

At the same time that the Nikkei released its latest “market response” trial balloon, where it posted an article around 2am local time clearly meant for US market consumption according to which BOJ officials “were said to be leaning more toward easing”, the same Nikkei also published a preview of what Japan’s helicopter money may look like. There is just one problem: at first read, and judging by the market’s reaction, it appears to be rather underwhelming.

As the Nikkei reports, “the Japanese government has proposed distributing 10,000 yen ($95) or more to low-income individuals as part of an upcoming plan for jump-starting economic growth.”

Other proposals include a minimum-wage hike of 24 yen, or about 23 cents which would still be the most ever,  to 822 yen an hour in fiscal 2016 as well as cutting the premiums that workers and their employers pay into the unemployment insurance program. The government submitted the outline to ruling coalition lawmakers Tuesday.

The plan will span a supplementary budget slated for this coming fall and next fiscal year’s main budget. The stimulus measures are expected to have a nominal value of 20 trillion yen to 30 trillion yen overall, with roughly 6 trillion yen over several years to consist of direct fiscal spending by the central and local governments. The rest would include such items as lending by government-backed financial institutions.

Some more details from the Nikkei:

Ruling bloc member Komeito’s proposal to issue vouchers meant to promote consumer spending was not included in the government-proposed outline.


The government favors distributing 10,000 yen in cash to low earners instead, but Komeito is holding out for 15,000 yen.


The roughly 22 million people who pay no residency tax because of insufficient income would be expected to qualify for the cash. Single individuals earning less than 1 million yen a year fall into this bracket.

Some more details: officials also propose lowering the unemployment insurance premium from 0.8% of an insured worker’s pay to 0.6% over several years. This would amount to 340 billion yen in relief for workers and employers, each of which contributes half. A company employee earning 4 million yen annually would save about 4,000 yen a year, which the government hopes would circulate back into the economy as spending. On the minimum wage, the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare will seek expanded subsidies for small and midsize enterprises to encourage them to raise pay.

Productivity-boosting infrastructure improvements will also form part of the stimulus package. Taking advantage of ultralow borrowing costs, the government plans to provide some 6 trillion yen in financing for such investments. Part of this would go toward speeding up completion of JR Tokai’s magnetic-levitation train line between Tokyo and Osaka by as much as eight years. A plan including infrastructure improvements meant to promote inbound international tourism and agricultural exports is due out later this year.

* * *

This is all great, there is just one problem. Judging by the market’s kneejerk reaction, it was expecting more.

Much more.




Again!! this time 2 hostage takers were killed, a priest who was beheaded and one hostage taker. The killers have been neutralized:

(courtesy zero hedge)

2 Hostage Takers Killed After “Beheading” Priest In Assault On French Church

Two men armed with knives took several people hostage at a church in Normandy, northern France on Tuesday, before being “neutralised”. Unconfirmed reports say the priest was killed by the attackers.


  • Two knifemen take several people hostage during mass. The hostage-takers are believed to have been shot dead by police
  • Unconfirmed press reports say the priest was killed after having his throat cut. AFP quote police sources who say one hostage was killed
  • President François Hollande heading to scene
  • Counter terror specialists reportedly called in to investigate

In the latest European assault to take place just over the past hour, two knifemen raided the Church of the Gambetta in the northern French town of Saint-Etienne-du-Rouvray, near Rouen in the département of Seine-Maritime (see map below) at 10am on Tuesday, taking between 4 and 6 hostages and allegedly killing a priest before being killed by police. According to subsequent unconfirmed reports the priest had been beheaded.

Another worshipper is said to have been seriously wounded.

Both attackers have been killed by police, an interior ministry spokesman confirmed to Reuters. The Paris anti-terrorist prosecutor is launching an investigation into the church attack and hostage-taking situation, the spokesman added

Prise d’otages dans une église près de : le prêtre tué, une fidèle gravement blessée http://f24.my/YTliveFR 

Nombreux tirs entendus sur places prise otage saint etienne du Rouvray

BREAKING: According to French media Le Figaro, the two attackers slit the throat of a priest in the Church – @michaelh992

MORE: @i24NEWS_EN is now reporting that the priest was beheaded inside the Church

.@skymarkwhite has the latest after reports that knifemen who’d taken hostages at a church in Normandy are shot dead

Slain hostage at northern French church was priest: police source

The killed priest has been identified as 86 year old Jacques Hamel.

One resident was walking to church as the horror broke out. He told French newspaper MetroNews: “I was going to go out and do my shopping when the police started shouting me to go straight home and barricade myself.

“There is a lot of agitation, the police are bulletproof vest and armed.”

While the motives of the hostage taking are still unclear it comes at a time when France is on high alert after a spate of recent terror attacks. Le Point further reports that the hostage takes shouted “Daesh” (ISIS) while entering the chruch, suggesting they may have been Islamic radicals.

The hostage takers shouted “Daesh” (ISIS) while entering the church according to Le Point https://twitter.com/LePoint/status/757874029621641217 

Firefighters, along with SWAT and anti-terror units, came to the scene, and said that there were several people wounded in the attack, RTL France media outlet said.

Prise d’otages en cours place de l’église à Saint-Étienne-du-rouvray, près de

French President Francois Hollande is on his way to the site of the attack, according to an official statement from Elysee Palace. Interior Minister Bernard Cazeneuve is also headed to the scene of the hostage-taking, the ministry said.

PM reacts to knife attack inside church near. “Horror”, “we’ll remain united”.https://twitter.com/manuelvalls/status/757878531129020416 


Hollande vows revenge and an all out war against iSIS:

(courtesy zero hedge)

Hollande Vows “All Out War” Against ISIS After Priest Killing

Shortly after the latest terror attack on French soil by two ISIS “soldiers”, President Francois Hollande, who was roundly disparaged 12 days ago for the country’s lack of preparedness to the Nice truck terror attack which killed 84, vowed to wage war against the Islamic State “by every means“.

“We are confronted with a group, Daesh, which has declared war on us,” Hollande said, using an alternative name for Isis. “We have to wage war, by every means, (but through) upholding the law, which is because we are a democracy.”

Hollande was speaking in a lightning visit to the northern French town of Saint-Etienne-du-Rouvray, just hours after the attack took place. Shortly after he spoke terror group Isis claimed responsibility saying that its “soldiers” had carried out the attack.

“The perpetrators of the Normandy church attack are soldiers of the Islamic State who carried out the attack in response to calls to target countries of the Crusader coalition,” the Amaq news agency said, citing a “security source”.

The two assailants entered a local church, slitting the throat of an 84-year-old priest and leaving another hostage with life-threatening injuries, before being killed by police as they left the building, police said.

Hollande said the assailants “claimed to be from Daesh” and branded the assault as a “vile terrorist attack”. “The Catholic community has been hit, but it is all of the French public which is concerned,” Hollande said.

He called for national unity in the face of terrorism, urging the French people to “create a solid bloc that no-one can split”.

France remains on high alert after Tunisian Mohamed Lahouaiej Bouhlel ploughed a truck into a crowd of people celebrating Bastille Day in Nice, killing 84 people and injuring over 300.

The July 14 massacre was the third major terror attack in France in little more than 18 months.

As we reported previously, France has already announced it would send an aircraft carrier in proximity to Syria to help fight ISIS. It remains to be seen if after today’s attack it will also expand its involvement by sending ground troops in Syria and/or Iraq.


Royal Bank of Scotland warns clients that they may face negative interest rates:

(courtesy zero hedge)

RBS Warns Clients May Face Negative Interest Rates

In another reminder that monetary unorthodoxy in the face of NIRP is coming to a savings account near you, overnight the RBS banking group warned 1.3 million customers they could be charged negative interest rates if the Bank of England cuts base rates below zero. The group, which includes NatWest, wrote to its business and commercial account holders about the potential changes, which mean they could lose money even when they are in credit.

As seen in the letter posted below, the bank warned that: “Global interest rates remain at very low levels and in some markets are currently negative. Dependent on future market conditions, this could result in us charging on credit balances.”

Source: @camcubed

As Sky reports, RBS and NatWest would be the first banks in UK history to charge negative interest rates. However, a spokeswoman for the group stressed there are no plans to inflict any of these changes on its personal banking customers.

“We will consider any necessary action in the event of the Bank of England base rate falling below zero, but will do our utmost to protect our customers from any impacts,” she added.

The spin provided was that any cut in the base rate would be better news for borrowers, as those on so-called “tracker” mortgages would see the cost of their monthly bills fall.

However that will hardly placate already anxious savers who will hardly benefit from the modest decline in mortgage payment and who will soon see returns on their funds slide even more in the event of a reduction to 0.25% as expected and/or be forced to pay their bank should the BOE also go NIRP.

Earlier this month, Bank of England governor Mark Carney said he was reluctant to reduce rates below 0.25%, warning: “If interest rates are too low or negative, the hit to bank profitability could perversely reduce credit availability or even increase its overall price.” That may be changing after Bank of England rate-setter Martin Weale said “immediate measures may be needed” to combat a slowdown in the economy following a drop in business sentiment data. Weale’s comments were a surprise coming off his suggestion a week ago that there was “no need for rate cut.”

And while savers may once again be punished as a result of further central bank tinkering, investors are set to benefit that much more as the FTSE 100 – so widely expected to collapse in the aftermath of Brexit by “experts” – FTSE100 continues to soar on even more liquidity generosity courtesy of the BOE.


And now Nat West in London: negative interest rates:

(courtesy UKTelegraph)

Savers fear negative interest rates as Natwest warns businesses might have to pay to hold cash

Natwest told business customers that negative interests could be on the way soonCREDIT: ALAMY

Natwest has become the first bank to warn business customers it may charge them negative interest rates on money held in current accounts.

In what is believed to be a UK first, the bank has signalled its intention to force account holders to either pay to hold money or move funds elsewhere.

Although current plans for negative rates are restricted to business customers, fears are mounting that “pay to save” rates could soon become a reality for millions of consumers, if other banks follow suit.

The outgoing pensions minister, Ros Altmann, warned negative interest rates on current and savings accounts pose a threat to the financial security of older savers, who often rely on their savings to provide a retirement income.

Carney: We may need to cut interest rates in next few monthsPlay!01:41

A number of high street banks including HSBC, The Post Office and First Direct are already offering savings accounts with rates as low as zero, as this newspaper reported last week. 

A move to negative interest rates would turn a key part of banking on its head, with banks effectively paid to store people’s money, while savers are penalised for keeping money in their accounts.

However this could become a reality if Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, cuts Bank rate to 0.25pc in August after seven years of it being held at 0.5pc.

Bank rate strongly influences the level of interest banks and building societies choose to pass on to their customers, although some banks offer significantly more or less.

Natwest blamed the potential decision on ultra-low interest rates imposed by the Bank of England, which it said were putting huge pressures on its finances.

 Ros Altmann 
Former pensions minister Ros Altmann said negative rates could force savers to put cash under the mattress instead of keeping it in a bank CREDIT: PA WIRE

Baroness Altmann said: “Negative rates would be very dangerous,especially for ordinary savers – the danger is many people will just think, I’m going to put the money under the mattress. That could have security risks, especially for older people.

“You don’t want your life savings out of the bank, you want them somewhere safe – but if the bank is going to charge you for keeping your money and every day you have it there it is worth less and less, you can see why people would say, I’m not going to do that.”

Martin Lewis, founder at Moneysavingexpert, said: “The psychological impact of the actual money shrinking the cash terms would be huge and you would see a swathe of customers, at a level we’ve never seen before, ditching any bank that imposed negative rates. The first one to break that taboo for customers is going to face an enormous uproar.”

Martin Lewis
Martin Lewis said any bank cutting rates to below zero could expect a stampede of customers leaving CREDIT: ITV 

A Natwest spokesman said: “We will consider any necessary action in the event of the Bank of England Base Rate falling below zero, but will do our utmost to protect our customers from any impacts.”

Anna Bowes, director at Savings Champion, a savings comparison service, said: “Currently you get virtually nothing on savings accounts because the big banks don’t really want savers’ money.”

She predicted that if rates go negative there would be “at least 20 banks waiting in the wings” to obtain licences and begin offering savers higher rates, increasing competition.

She added: “Whether you are a business, and individual, or a charity you always need to be seeking the best interest rates that are available. Those pockets of competition are a lifeline for savers.”



Credible evidence finds its way showing that the Turkish authorities raped and tortured detainees following the “failed” coup:

(courtesy zero hedge)

“Credible Evidence” Shows Turkish Authorities Raped And Tortured Detainees Since ‘Failed’ Coup

Via MiddleEastEye.net,

Human rights group Amnesty International said on Sunday it had “credible evidence” of abuse and torture of people detained in sweeping arrests since Turkey’s 15 July attempted military coup.

The London-based group said some of those being held were being “subjected to beatings and torture, including rape, in official and unofficial detention centres in the country”.

Amnesty said more than 10,000 people have been detained since the attempted coup, and the group called for independent monitors to be granted access to detention sites across Turkey.

Amnesty raised serious allegations of mistreatment against Turkish police, who they said have held detainees in “stress positions, denied them food, water and medical treatment, verbally abused and threatened them, and subjected them to beatings and torture, including rape and sexual assault”.

Two lawyers working in the capital Ankara on behalf of detainees told Amnesty they witnessed “senior military officers in detention being raped with a truncheon or finger by police officers”.

Another source told Amnesty between 650 and 800 soldiers have been detained at the Ankara police headquarters sports hall. The source said “at least 300 of the detainees showed signs of having been beaten”.

“Reports of abuse including beatings and rape in detention are extremely alarming, especially given the scale of detentions that we have seen in the past week. The grim details that we have documented are just a snapshot of the abuses that might be happening in places of detention,” said Amnesty International’s Europe director John Dalhuisen.

“It is absolutely imperative that the Turkish authorities halt these abhorrent practices and allow international monitors to visit all these detainees in the places they are being held.”

A Turkish official, who asked to remain anonymous, told MEE that the government rejects Amnesty’s allegations of mistreating detainees.

“We categorically deny the allegations and encourage advocacy groups to provide an unbiased account of the legal steps that are being taken against people who murdered nearly 250 civilians in cold blood,” the official said.

“The idea that Turkey, a country seeking EU membership, would not respect the law is absurd. Just yesterday we released 1,200 military personnel because all we care about is concrete evidence of complicity in this grave assault against our democracy.”

Since the failed coup, a total of 13,165 people have been detained, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said late on Saturday.

This included 8,838 soldiers, 2,101 judges and prosecutors, 1,485 police officers and 689 civilians.

At least 123 generals and admirals have also been jailed, Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim said.

Amnesty said that while Turkey has legitimate security concerns in light of the attempted coup, abuses of human rights are never acceptable.

“Turkey is understandably concerned with public security at the moment, but no circumstances can ever justify torture and other ill-treatment or arbitrary detention,” Dalhuisen said.

Speaking at a unity rally held in Istanbul on Sunday evening, opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu told huge crowds of people from across the Turkish political spectrum that mistreatment of detainees “shouldn’t be allowed”.

The leader of the centre-left CHP said, without specifically mentioning the Amnesty report: “The state cannot be run based on hate and vengeance. The rule of law needs to prevail. Torture, pressure in response will put state and putschists on same page and shouldn’t be allowed.”

It is interesting when they state “do not panic”.  Actually it is the time to panic over there as the Nira collapsed:
(courtesy zero hedge)

Nigeria Says “Don’t Panic, Banks Are Fine” Amid Currency Collapse, Inflation Spike Concerns

A month ago we warned of the looming hyperinflation coming to Nigeria (as well as much of Africa). It appears, following the central banks’ rate hike to a record 14% (reach for yield anyone) in an attempt to stall the ongoing currency collapse, that Emefiele is worried, warning of “concern over headline inflation spike.” Perhaps most worrying though, amid the chaos, Emefiele advised depositors in banks “to go about your business,” adding that there was “no need to panic or worry.” Hhhmm..

The rate hike is not working, Spot Naira is tumbling on the day to record lows, and forward rates are signaling much more to come… but don’t let that stop Emefiele from jawboning… *NIGERIA’S EMEFIELE:`SO FAR, SO GOOD’ ON NEW FX REGIME


Emefiele had plenty to say…


And this little gem:


But he saved the best for last…


May we suggest ever so subtley that now is the time to panic.

As we noted previously, for Nigeria’s 175 million-strong population, it appears that Nigeria is about become the next Venezuela, with imminent hyperinflation on deck, as prices soar to keep up with the collapse in the spot rate. 

Of course, what is bad news for the population is great news for capital markets as the “devaluation as a bullish case for stocks” arguments spew forth. Stocks always surge as a country is about to tumble into the hyperinflationary abyss. The question is whether the nominal price increase will keep up with the all too real collapse in the Naira’s purchasing power which is about to slam Nigeria. If Venezuela is any indication, the answer is no.

Finally, for those wondering how to trade here, the answer may once again revolve around the Niger Delta Advisors: if Nigeria is unable to export more oil due to supply disruptions and thus inject much needed dollars into its Treasury, the country’s financial situation wil get even more dire, leading to an acceleration in the naira’s devaluation.  On the other hand should Nigeria’s government be successful in taming its offshore funded militants, the naira may be a buy, however that trade would be offset by a short in oil as the world’s most acute crude supply disruption comes to an end.

In any case, watch out for unsolicited Nigerian emails from financially erudite locals asking you to buy stocks, bonds, or any other asset class. Those will result in guaranteed losses.

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings/TUESDAY morning 7:00 am

Euro/USA   1.1015 UP .0026 (STILL  REACTING TO BREXIT/



USA/CAN 1.3220 DOWN .0003

Early THIS TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 26 basis points, trading now JUST above the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1012; Europe is still reacting to Gr Britain BREXIT,deflation, announcements of massive stimulation (QE), a proxy middle east war, and the ramifications of a default at the Austrian Hypo bank, an imminent default of Greece, Glencore, Nysmark and the Ukraine, along with rising peripheral bond yield further stimulation as the EU is moving more into NIRP, and NOW THE USA’S NON tightening by FAILING TO RAISE THEIR INTEREST RATE / Last night the Shanghai compositeUP 34.33 POINTS OR 1.14%    / Hang Sang closed UP 136.29 points or .62%  /AUSTRALIA is HIGHER by .07%/ EUROPEAN BOURSES ARE ALL IN THE RED EXCEPT LONDON

We are seeing that the 3 major global carry trades are being unwound. The BIGGY is the first one;

1. the total dollar global short is 9 trillion USA and as such we are now witnessing a sea of red blood on the streets as derivatives blow up with the massive rise in the rise in the dollar against all paper currencies and especially with the fall of the yuan carry trade. The emerging market which house close to 50% of the 9 trillion dollar short is feeling the massive pain as their debt is quite unmanageable.

2, the Nikkei average vs gold carry trade ( NIKKEI blowing up and the yen carry trade HAS BLOWN up/and now NIRP)

3. Short Swiss franc/long assets blew up ( Eastern European housing/Nikkei etc.

These massive carry trades are terribly offside as they are being unwound. It is causing global deflation ( we are at debt saturation already) as the world reacts to lack of demand and a scarcity of debt collateral. Bourses around the globe are reacting in kind to these events as well as the potential for a GREXIT>

The NIKKEI: this TUESDAY morning closed DOWN:  237.25 points or 1.43% 

Trading from Europe and Asia:

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / : Hang Sang CLOSED UP 136.29 POINTS OR .62%  ,Shanghai CLOSED UP 34.33 POINTS OR 1.14%   / Australia bourse in the green: /Nikkei (Japan) closed DOWN 237.25 OR  1.43%/India’s Sensex IN THE RED  

Gold very early morning trading: $1321.30


Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.546% !!! DOWN  4 in basis points from MONDAY night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%. The 30 yr bond yield FALLS to 2.254 DOWN 4 in basis points from MONDAY night. (SPREAD GOES AGAINST THE BANKS)

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 96.95 down 33 CENTS from MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING



And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS

Portuguese 10 year bond yield:  3.03% par in basis points from MONDAY  (does not buy the rally)

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -0.253% DOWN 2  in   basis points from MONDAY

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.11%  PAR IN basis points from MONDAY( this is totally nuts!!/

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.25 UP 1 in basis points from MONDAY (again totally nuts/)

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 14 points HIGHER than Spain.




Closing currency crosses for MONDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/3:30 PM

Euro/USA 1.0984 DOWN .0005 (Euro UP 16 basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/

USA/Japan: 104.63 DOWN .953(Yen UP 95 basis points/HELICOPTER MONEY BACK ON THE TABLE )


USA/Canada 1.3184-DOWN 0.0038 (Canadian dollar UP 38 basis points AS OIL FELL (WTI AT $42.67). Canada keeps rate at 0.5% and does not cut!


This afternoon, the Euro was DOWN by 5 basis points to trade at 1.0990

The Yen ROSE to 104.63 for a GAIN of 95 basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY NOW ON THE TABLE


The Canadian dollar ROSE by 38 basis points to 1.3184, WITH WTI OIL AT:  $42.67


The USA/Yuan closed at 6.6690

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.253% DOWN 2  IN BASIS  points in yield/

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield: DOWN 1 IN basis points from MONDAY at 1.561% //trading well below the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)

USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.283 DOWN 1  in basis points on the day /AND THE DOW RISES??


Your closing USA dollar index, 97.16 DOWN 10 CENTS  ON THE DAY/4 PM 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY

London:  CLOSED UP 13.90 OR 0.21%
German Dax :CLOSED UP  49.52 OR  0.49%
Paris Cac  CLOSED UP 6.77  OR 0.15%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 15.50 OR 0.18%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 4.84 OR 0.03%

The Dow was DOWN 19.33 points or 0.10%

NASDAQ  UP 12.42 points or 0.24%
WTI Oil price; 42.67 at 4:30 pm;

Brent Oil: 44.55




This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today

Closing Price for Oil, 5 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:


BRENT: 44.55

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.561% 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.16 UP 10 cents

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.31322 UP .0029 or 29 basis pts.

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: -.043%


And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver


Manic Day Leaves S&P, Bonds, Gold, Crude, Dollar Unchanged


A day of manic swings in stocks “contained”…


Good news was bad news, or just algos lost control? Each plunge ramped back to VWAP before another selling attack…


Dow Futures swung around 450 points from the open… to end just 30pts lower…


VIX also had a crazy gappy ‘normal’ day with a final VIX sm,ash back to a 12 handle…Mission Accomplished (S&P green into close 2168.48)


The S&P eked out a tiny gain, Trannies loved it, Dow underperformed…


HY Credit – unsuaully for recent times – decoupled notably wider today given equity’s nonchalance…


Since Brexit gold still leads (and oil is a disaster)…


But since The June FOMC, Stocks lead bullion and bonds…


Treasury yields ended the day unchanged (with a 6bps swing intraday)… (long-end barely outperforming) – notably, bonds rallied after another ugly (this time 5Y) auction…


The USD Index ended the day very modestly lower with JPY strength offset by an unusual drop in Swissy…


Gold and silver drifted very modestly higher on the day, copper unch and crude ended lower but not much after it bounced into NYMEX close…


WTI Crude dropped intraday to a $42 handle at 3-month lows but it seems the oil-S&P correlation-mongers were in full high beta mode this afternoon…


Charts: Bloomberg

Bonus Chart: Rate-Hike Odds rising…



This is not good for the wealth effect:  House prices drop the most in 2 years:

(courtesy zero hedge)

Case-Shiller Home Prices Drop Most In 2 Years


The consumer is 70% of USA GDP. Today the USA service economy tumbled over the cliff with service PMI tumbling to 5 month lows.  There is no strength to the supposed recovery in the uSA:

(courtesy zerohedge)

US Services Economy ‘Bounce’ Dies – PMI Tumbles To 5-Month Lows

I am afraid that the data is now being compromised.  The Richmond Fed beats the street by 7 standard deviations.  That is like being hit by lightening 3 times in a week:

(courtesy zero hedge)

Tuesday Humor: Richmond Fed Survey Beats Expectations By 7 Standard Deviations

Against expectations of a -5 print, July’s Richmond Fed printed +10 (up from a revised lower -10 in June). This is the 2nd biggest MoM spike since 1998 (the biggest being March’s insane spike). This beat is a 7 standard deviation beat over expectations among the 9 economists tracking it with none of them forecasting a gain at all. Across the board components improved with a surge in employees, workweek and the biggest jump in new orders since 1998!

The Survey has become dramatically more volatile in 2016…

With somehow the biggest surge in new orders in 18 years…

Which perhaps explains this farce…

Are you laughing yet?


Consumer confidence in the USA is fading:

(courtesy zero hedge)

“Hope” Fades As Consumer Confidence Ignores Stock Market Exuberance

Janet, you have a problem…

If soaring home prices and record high stocks won’t spike consumer confidence, what will?

While the ‘Present Situation’ index rose modestly to 118.3 (from 116.6), the ‘Expectations’ index dropped to 83.3 from 84.6 (inching the overall Conference Board Consumer Confidence index lower to 97.3).

Jobs plentiful dropped, income growth expectations dropped, plans to buy a car dropped, and inflation expectations dropped.

New England saw the biggest spike in confidence (from 82.0 to 95.8!!) but East South Central collapsed from 97.8 to 73.0.

Perhaps most worrying is the plunge in Under-35-year-old confidence from 132.3 to 122.8 and middle-income earners ($50k to 125k) all saw a drop in confidence.



  1. Michael Harvey · · Reply

    Dear Harvey
    I would wish to know what the your comment means in laymans language please?


    Is this good for an investor in precious metals such as myself or is this part of the comex manipulation?
    Your advice would be appreciated
    Kind Regards
    Mike Harvey
    Resident in Ireland


    1. Mike, my 2 cents;
      It is good when they stand for delivery.
      Most futures contracts are just cash settled. This has allowed sellers to hold only a fraction of the amount they sell. i.e. Jeff Christian testified to CFTC some years ago that 100x the holding of physical metal was being sold on COMEX. And he thought that was just standard business. Having that said, they have been getting away with it because far from all buyers *(longs) intend to take delivery. They just want a few $ profit. If more traders take delivery the markets can move towards true price discovery. If there is a risk of default (inability to deliver what has been sold) then you may see a scramble for what ever physical is available and a real price take off. What the level for either is cannot be predicted. Meanwhile, it is just good to see there is physical demand.


  2. Mike, my 2 cents;
    It is good when they stand for delivery.
    Most futures contracts are just cash settled. This has allowed sellers to hold only a fraction of the amount they sell. i.e. Jeff Christian testified to CFTC some years ago that 100x the holding of physical metal was being sold on COMEX. And he thought that was just standard business. Having that said, they have been getting away with it because far from all buyers *(longs) intend to take delivery. They just want a few $ profit. If more traders take delivery the markets can move towards true price discovery. If there is a risk of default (inability to deliver what has been sold) then you may see a scramble for what ever physical is available and a real price take off. What the level for either is cannot be predicted. Meanwhile, it is just good to see there is physical demand.


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