August 3/Record open interest in silver as longs willing to take on our criminal bankers/open interest on comex gold also rises/gold and silver whacked as expected/All Italian banks halted and are down between 10 and 20% today/Real estate bubble bursts in Vancouver due to the 15% foreign tax as foreign buyers walk away/Oil rises in unexplained fashion sending the Dow higher/

Gold:1356.10 down $8.30

Silver 20.44  down 22 cents

In the access market 5:15 pm


Gold: 1358.20

Silver: 20.40


For the August gold contract month,  we had a large 732 notices served upon for 73,200 ounces. The total number of notices filed so far for delivery:  9657 for 965,700 oz or  tonnes or 30.037 tonnes

In silver we had 19 notices served upon for 95,000 oz. The total number of notices filed so far this month:  140 for 700,000 oz.

I wrote the following yesterday:

“The way that silver lagged behind gold today, it sure looks like our criminal banks will try another raid tomorrow on our precious metals.”

The colluding crooked banks did not disappoint me with their raid on gold and silver today.

Let us have a look at the data for today



In silver, the total open interest ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE 2,553 contracts UP to 224,540 AND AN ALL TIME NEW ALL TIME RECORD AS THE  PRICE OF SILVER ROSE  BY 20 CENTS WITH YESTERDAY’S TRADING.In ounces, the OI is still represented by just over 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.123 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 160% of annual global silver production (ex Russia &ex China).

In silver we had 120 notices served upon for 600,000 oz

In gold, the total comex gold ROSE BY A HUGE 12,547 contracts as  that the price of gold ROSE by $13.00 yesterday. The total gold OI stands at 582,211 contracts.


With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:


we had A BIG change, a deposit of 5.62 tonnes  of gold inventory . /

Total gold inventory rest tonight at: 969.65 tonnes


we had no changes in the SLV, the SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

rests at 350.815 million oz.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in silver ROSE by 2553 contracts UP to 224,540 as the price of silver ROSE BY 20 cents with YESTERDAY’S trading.The gold open interest ROSE by A HUGE  12,547 contracts UP to 582,211 as the price of gold ROSE by $13.00 WITH YESTERDAY’S TRADING.

(report Harvey).


2 a) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark OByrne/zerohedge

2b  FRBNY report on earmarked gold removed from its vaults:



i)Late  TUESDAY night/WEDNESDAY morning: Shanghai closed UP 7.18 POINTS OR 0.24%/ /Hang Sang closed down 390.02 points or 1.76%. The Nikkei closed down 308.64 POINTS OR 1.86% Australia’s all ordinaires  CLOSED down 1.35% Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.6311/Oil rose to 39.83 dollars per barrel for WTI and 42.08 for Brent. Stocks in Europe ALL mixed . Offshore yuan trades  6.6356 yuan to the dollar vs 6.6311 for onshore yuan.THE SPREAD BETWEEN ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE NARROWS SLIGHTLY AS CHINA TRIES TO STOP MORE USA DOLLARS LEAVING THEIR SHORES  



Nomura’s top credit analyst predicts the 30 yr JAPANESE  bond yield will plunge to zero

( zero hedge)


I do not like what I see here:  China’s Defense Minister warns to prepare for war at sea:

( zero hedge)


Wow! for the 3rd day in a row, Italy’s largest bank, Unicredit is halted limit down as the entire European banking system has totally failed. The way the banking shaes are behaving,it seems that want a bail in or out!

( zero hedge)


none today


Well, it did not take long for the new 15% tax on housing in Vancouver( if the buyer is foreign) to have a deleterious effect in the housing market as Chinese citizens walk away from their deposit instead of paying the tax.  This will no doubt cause a ripple effect of cascading defaults

( zerohedge)


i)Cushing OK has a surprisingly large drawdown. However DOE  records a big buildup.Down goes oil!

( zero hedge)

ii) Then for no apparent reason, the algos bought WTI, driving the price equal to yesterday’s highs as the crooks run their stops.

( zero hedge)


none today


i)In the latest chapter ( the 10 gold double eagle gold coins taken in 1933) has the USA winning ownership of the coins.

(  Reuters/Stempel)

ii)Ronald Stoeferle explains why “gold is back”

( zero hedge)

iii)A JPM analyst is upset stating that central banks are rigging markets right after BREXIT.

( Chris Powell/GATA)

iv)Interesting, the GLD leaves out how much gold is stored at the Bank of England.  New SEC rules stipulate that the GLD must report how much gold is stored at its primary level and at the subcustodian level, namely the Bank of England

( Ronan Manly)


i)Auto sales has been a bright light in the economy.  It seems that USA auto sales are now faltering badly:

( zero hedge)

ii)The private ADP report and it’s findings show that it lags payrolls.  Goods producingjobs as well as constructions jobs falter

( zero hedge/ADP private jobs reports)


iii)My goodness:  this is going to go over well during the election: The White house provided 1.7 billion USA taxpayer money over to Tehran to ensure the nuclear accord’s success:

( zero hedge)

iv)Service PMI or ISM service data show either the economy is flat or down:

( Service PMI/ISM service/zero hedge)

v)Strange reporting on this darling company owned by many hedge funds.  They have burned over 500 million dollars and has now reached its bank funding limit.

It reported that it delivered fewer cars because it was producing more cars???

Non GAAP loses were 1.02 per share.  Surprisingly the stock is up in after hours

(courtesy zero hedge)

Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest ROSE TO AN OI level of 582,211 for a GAIN of 12,547 contracts as THE PRICE OF GOLD ROSE BY $13.00 with YESTERDAY’S TRADING..   We are now in the active month of AUGUST. As I stated on Friday “Somebody big is continually standing for the gold metal despite the fact that July is  generally a poor delivery month. We  again witnessed the same scenario as in May  June and July whereby the front delivery month increases in OI standing for metal or a slight contraction We will no doubt see the same modus operandi in August.  The  big active contract month of August saw it’s OI FELL by 2365 contracts down to 4154,  We had 2096 notices filed upon yesterday so we lost 269 contracts or an additional 26,900 oz will not stand for delivery in August. The next contract month of Sept saw it’s OI fall by 697 contracts down to 9,662.The September contract remains extremely elevated and we may have another of those high deliveries rare for a non active month.The next active delivery month is October and here the OI ROSE by 255 contracts down to 45,984. The estimated volume today (which is just comex sales during regular business hours of 8:20 until 1:30 pm est) was fair at 158,998. The confirmed volume  yesterday (which includes the volume during regular business hours + access market sales the previous day was FAIR at 187,966 contracts.The comex is not in backwardation.
Today, we had  732 notices filed for 73,200 oz in gold
And now for the wild silver comex results. Total silver OI ROSE by2,553 contracts from  221,987 UP to 224,540.  We are now at an all time record high for silver open interest set ON Wednesday AUGUST 3: (224,540). The  non active month of August saw it’s OI FALL by 102 contracts down to 303. We had 120 notices served yesterday so we gained 18 contracts or an additional 90,000 oz will  stand in this non active delivery month of August. The next big active month is September and here the OI fell by 621 contracts down to 150,017. The volume on the comex today (just comex) came in at 46,190 which is very good. The confirmed volume yesterday (comex + globex) was huge at 79,764 with tiny rollovers.. Silver is not in backwardation. London is in backwardation for several months.
We had 19 notices filed for today for 95,000 oz
INITIAL standings for AUGUST
 August 3.
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz   nil OZ
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz  nil
 1929.000 oz
60 kilobars
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz 
No of oz served (contracts) today
732 notices 
73,200 oz
No of oz to be served (notices)
3,422 contracts
342,200 oz
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
9657 contracts (965,700 oz)
(30.037 tonnes)
Total accumulative withdrawals  of gold from the Dealers inventory this month   NIL
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month    1961.15 OZ
Today:  hardly any activity at the gold comex
Today we had 0 dealer DEPOSITS
total dealer deposit:NIL    0z
Today we had  0 dealer withdrawals:
total dealer withdrawals:  nil oz
We had 0 customer deposit:
Total customer deposits:nil oz
Today we had 1 tiny customer withdrawals:????
 i) Out of Scotia:  1929.000 oz  (60 kilobars)
Total customer withdrawals  1929.000 OZ ??
Today we had 1 adjustment:
i) Out of Delaware:  771.600 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer account of Delaware (24 kilobars)
Note: If anybody is holding any gold at the comex, you must be out of your mind!!!
Today, 0 notices was issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 22 contracts of which 60 notices was stopped (received) by JPMorgan dealer and 321 notices was stopped (received)  by JPMorgan customer account. 
To calculate the initial total number of gold ounces standing for the AUGUST  contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (9657) x 100 oz  or 965,700 oz , to which we  add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST  (4154 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (732) x 100 oz   x 100 oz per contract equals 1,307,900 oz, the number of ounces standing in this active month. 
Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUST contract month:
No of notices served so far (9657) x 100 oz  or ounces + {OI for the front month (4154) minus the number of  notices served upon today (732) x 100 oz which equals 1,307,900 oz standing in this non  active delivery month of AUGUST  (40.681 tonnes).
Since the comex allows GLD shares to be used for settling, it may take quite a while for the physical gold to enter the comex vaults.  So far I have seen little evidence of any settling of contracts but I will continue to monitor it for you. 
We now have partial evidence of gold settling for last months deliveries We now have  +  6.889 TONNES FOR MAY + 49.09 TONNES FOR JUNE +  21.452 TONNES FOR JULY + 12.3917 + 40.681 tonnes Aug +  tonnes (April) +2.2311 tonnes (March) + 7.99 (total Feb)- .940 (probable delivery on March 1) tonnes -.0434 tonnes (March 11,12,17,18) + March 31: 1.2470 and then  April 1,2: – .0006 tonnes  and last week April 16.3203 and April 22 .(0009 tonnes) + april 29  .205 tonnes + May 5:  3.799 and May 6: 1.607 tonnes –MAY 12  .0003- May 18: 1.5635 tonnes-May 19/   2.535 tonnes-May 27 .0185 – .024 TONNES MAY 31 -jUNE 4: .5044 ; june 10 -.0008 / June 22:0.48 tonnes /June 23: 0489 tonnes, June 24..018; june 29 .036 tonnes; JUNE 30 2.49 /july 1 1778 tonnes, JULY 28 .089 TONNES / JULY 29 .128 TONNES/ THEREFORE 92.066 tonnes still standing against 72.029 tonnes available.
 Total dealer inventor 2,315,744.413 oz or 72.029 tonnes
Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) =10,993,213.689 or 341.935tonnes 
Several months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today the total inventory rests at 341.935 tonnes for a  gain of 39  tonnes over that period. 


To me, the only thing that makes sense is the fact that “kilobars” are entries or hypothecated gold sent to other jurisdictions so that they will not be short in their derivatives like in England.  This would be similar to the gold used by Jon Corzine. If this is the case, this would be the greatest fraud perpetrated on USA soil.


And now for silver
 august 3.2016
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
600,011.000 oz
XX.000 OZ!!!
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
 597,001.400 OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
956.500 oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
(95,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
284 contracts
1,420,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 140 contracts (700,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month  NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal  of silver from the Customer inventory this month  2,791,381.3 oz
today we had 0 deposit into the dealer account:
total dealer deposit NIL  oz
we had 0 dealer withdrawal:
total dealer withdrawals:  NIL oz
we had 1 customer withdrawals:
i) Out of CRIMINAL JPMORGAN: 600,011.000 oz ????
Total customer withdrawals: 600,011.000 oz
We had 1 customer deposit:
i) Into CNT: 956.500 oz
total customer deposits:  956.500  oz
 we had 0 adjustments
The total number of notices filed today for the AUGUST contract month is represented by 19 contract for 95,000  oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at (140) x 5,000 oz  = 700,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST (303) and the number of notices served upon today (19) x 5000 oz equals the number of ounces standing 
Thus the initial standings for silver for the AUGUST contract month:  140(notices served so far)x 5000 oz +(303 OI for front month of AUGUST ) -number of notices served upon today (19)x 5000 oz  equals  2,120,000 oz  of silver standing for the AUGUST contract month.
we gained 18 contracts or an additional 90,000 oz will  stand for delivery in this non active month of August.
Total dealer silver:  26.975 million (close to record low inventory  
Total number of dealer and customer silver:   153.452 million oz (close to a record low)
The total open interest on silver is NOW close to its all time high with the record of 224,540 being set AUGUST 3.2016.  The registered silver (dealer silver) is NOW NEAR  multi year lows as silver is being drawn out at both dealer and customer levels and heading to China and other destinations. The shear movement of silver into and out of the vaults signify that something is going on in silver.
And now the Gold inventory at the GLD
August 3/a big deposit of 5.62 tonnes of paper gold/Inventory rests at 969.65 tonnes
August 2/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 964.03 tonnes
August 1/we had a huge paper deposit of 5.94 tonnes of gold into the GLD/Inventory rests at 964.03 tonnes
July 29/ we had a huge deposit of 3.86 tonnes into the GLD/inventory rests at 958.09 tonnes
July 28/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 954.23 tonnes
July 22/ no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 963.14 tonnes
July 21/ a large withdrawal of gold inventory to the tune of 2.08 tonnes/Inventory rests at 963.14 tonnes
July 20./no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 965.22 tonese
July 19/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 965.22 tonnes
July 18./ a good sized deposit of 2.37 tonnes of gld into GLD/this is a paper gold entry/inventory rests at 965.22 tonnese
August 3/ Inventory rests tonight at 969.65  tonnes


Now the SLV Inventory
August 3/no change in silver inventory/inventory rests at 350.815 million oz
August 2/ we had a tiny withdrawal of 40,000 oz of silver/Inventory rests at 350.815 million oz
August 1/we had a huge paper deposit of 1.235 million oz into the SLV/Inventory rests at 350.955 million oz
July 29/we had no change in silver inventory/inventory rests at 349.720 million oz
July 28/we had 1.14 million oz of additional silver added to the SLV/Inventory rests at 349.720 million oz
July 22/we had no change in silver inventory at the SLV.Inventory rests at 348.580 million oz/
July 21/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 348.580 million oz
July 20/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 348.580 million oz
July 19/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 348.580 million oz
July 18/no change in silver inventory at he SLV/inventory restss at 348.580 million oz
August 3.2016: Inventory 350.815 million oz

NPV for Sprott and Central Fund of Canada

1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative 4.4 percent to NAV usa funds and Negative 4.5% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!!  (the discount is starting to disappear)
Percentage of fund in gold 58.7%
Percentage of fund in silver:40.2%
cash .+1.1%( August 3/2016).
2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): Premium falls  to +1.32%!!!! NAV (august 3/2016) 
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  falls TO  1.13% to NAV  ( august 3/2016)
Note: Sprott silver trust back  into POSITIVE territory at +1.32% /Sprott physical gold trust is back into positive territory at 1.13%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail.




Late tonight we received the report of movement of gold from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York:

In the previous month we had 7951 million dollars worth of gold in inventory valued at 42.22 dollars per oz.

Tonight the FRBNY reports that we had 7910 million dollars worth of gold inventory valued at $42.22 per oz.

Thus a total of 41 million dollars worth of gold left New York shores valued at 42.22 dollars per oz.

Thus in oz, the amount exported out of NY:

971,103.7 oz  or 30.205 tonnes

Since Germany is the only official country to have asked for the gold back you can be safe to assume that it is this country that is the recipient of the gold.

Germany must have sent out an extra SOS to get their gold back!!.



And now your overnight trading in gold,WEDNESDAY MORNING and also physical stories that may interest you:

Trading in gold and silver overnight in Asia and Europe
Mark O’Byrne/David Russell

Gold Bullion – The Ultimate Monetary Solution

Gold Bullion – The Ultimate Monetary Solution

Editors Note: We are happy to publish another interesting and thought provoking piece by one of our contributors David Bryan:

Astounding levels of debt in the western world in particular is the greatest financial, economic and monetary challenge facing the world today. To get debt under control is imperative. It could involve a short period when individuals legally opt to become debt free.

A hard currency regime is implemented and private central banking monetary agencies such as the Federal Reserve become totally defunct. Afterwards there is a lengthy period of shock and awe in which every asset deflates against gold until it finds fair market value with a price that is not derived from leveraged finance.

This option to become debt free should not be available to public or private corporations. Corporations continue to have their debt burden and as incorporated assets deflate to fair market value the capital imbalance will motivate a return of wealth resources from the few to the great body of people on the planet.

These steps provide the ultimate monetary solution to the state sponsored ideologies of monetarism, corporatism, socialism, globalism, capitalism and communism, all of which have failed.

Money defines our enterprise, independence, prosperity and economic freedom.

In terms of physics, gold is refined matter with sufficient value to provide tangible monetary capital and is fully accountable money as the entire quantity of gold mined still exists.

Central bank issued money is a monetary ideology and instead of asset wealth to provide monetary capital it relies on faith in a central banks synthetic fiat for monetary transactions.

In a debt creating paradox, the issue of unlimited synthetic money has inflated every asset class beyond affordability and to make financial ends meet, it has forced the great body of people into a life of permanent debt. In a further tragedy against the great body of people on the planet, through the issue of unlimited money the central banks have incorporated most of the world’s wealth creating resources for the exclusive benefit of a privileged few.

The out of control central banks wage vicious monetary wars without having any compassion for the suffering caused to the families in countries they attack. They ruthlessly employ negative interest rates against domestic savers, use money printing, currency devaluations and capital controls that weaken or destroy productive economies.


They inflate bubbles in stock markets, property values, bonds and commodities by flooding the world with synthetic money. This inevitably leads to the deflationary busts in stock markets, property values, bonds and commodities that follow. Using a rinse and repeat operation in what is referred to as the great short the bankers cash in as they engineer the synthetic financial booms in stock markets, property values, bonds and commodities and also cash in as the financial bubbles in the same stock markets, property values, bonds and commodities are burst.

By their own admission it explains how enormous wealth is continually transferred to the privileged few. Oxfam’s research into wealth distribution concludes that 68 people now have greater wealth than half the world’s population (Google). The unsuspecting great body of people on the planet has no idea about the central banking charade that intentionally steals his or her wealth and deprives them of the means to enjoy a reasonable economic opportunity.

The central bank synthetic currency system has one indisputable fact shared in common with every scheme designed to swindle an unsuspecting person and that is to falsely pretend that something without tangible value has monetary worth.

The Rothschild Brothers letter to their New York Associates in 1863 laying the foundation for the Federal Reserve Act: “The few that understand the system will be so interested in its profits or be so dependent upon its favours that there will be no opposition from that class, while on the other hand, the great body of people, mentally incapable of comprehending the tremendous advantage that capital derives from the system, will bear its burdens without complaint, and perhaps without even suspecting that the system is inimical to their interests.”

It is not widely known by the great body of people on the planet that the Bank for International Settlements based in Switzerland controls and is controlled by virtually every major central bank in the world. Central banks may have the outward appearance of being national and completely independent. However the fact is that this one unaccountable Swiss banking organization with a history of committing massive fraud is the ultimate counter party to every major central bank currency. (Wikipedia – Bank for International Settlements)

The monetary science that provides for the economic good and benefit of one and all is based on the physics of energy and matter, the dynamic of human enterprise and gold.

Gold held in treasury is refined matter that provides the nations monetary capital and it is wealth that belongs to each of its citizens. When the gold in treasury is responsibly used to back the nation’s currency its citizens rely on using their own wealth resource to fund their enterprise.

With a modest level of wealth generating enterprise the nation’s treasury will normally remain intact, with the wealth of a nation reduced only if it is compromised by the debt creating policies of central banks, or depleted to pay for unproductive wars or spent on lavish political extravaganza. This is monetary science par excellence and has happened many times throughout history, with stable asset prices and a prosperous wealth regenerating economies lasting for hundreds of years until banks, wars or imperial arrogance depleted the treasury.

Gold is the ultimate acceptable unit of value to exchange for goods and service and ensures a system of economic fairness. Gold backed money will hold asset prices stable so that the unproductive in society no longer can speculate using financial derivatives to live off the backs of others. Gold is the only monetary wealth that is physically indestructible and for more than five thousand years it has provided a physical store of value that has protected wealth for generations to come.

Gold  has  a  natural  inbuilt  compound  interest  that  over  time  reflects  economic  progress  and safely protects from the devaluation or the collapse of central banker’s synthetic fiat currencies. Today gold is well in excess of $1,033.50 an ounce and so has increased by more than 5,000% from $20.67 an ounce in 1913 when the private Federal Reserve Bank was given the mandate to issue the nation’s currency.

During this same one hundred year period the Federal Reserve’s dollar has lost over 97% of its original purchasing power and now it is worth less than 3 cents.

CurrenciesinGold100yearsDestruction of paper money

Protection from a corrupt central banking finance scheme that has transferred to a few people over 97% of the nation’s wealth that was used to back the original Federal Reserve dollar, is proven wealth preservation, well beyond par excellence.

Gold does not have any national currency and is accepted wealth everywhere in the world.

It is a fact that for several thousands of years every country in the world used either gold or silver for trade and it guaranteed their nation’s monetary worth, it also provided assurance that their economies were  completely  independent  from  monetary  subordination  to  a  foreign  controlled  central  banking agency.

Before President Nixon in 1971, replaced what was then a partial gold standard for a completely synthetic monetary system, it is estimated that the enterprising middle class of the United States created in the region of 200,000 net new businesses annually.

Instead of continuing to use money that was partially backed by the nations gold reserve and prospering from the compound dynamic of an additional net 200,000 new middle class businesses created each year. The central bankers ability to financial engineer the issue of their own synthetic currency and
provide unlimited finance for corporatism under an agenda of globalism has meant that the number of wealth regenerating private middle class enterprises in America have become net negative. For the great body of people in the United States and elsewhere in the world it has meant that home ownership, job security and real wages have all declined while the fortunes of an unproductive few have grown exponentially.

It seems to have been entirely forgotten that for several thousands of years the use of monetary gold or silver allowed every country in the world to function without any need to tax a person’s income.

Interest on the United States $19 trillion national debt is currently $216 billion per annum and it amounts to a banker’s tax levied on the income of every working family.

It’s not a coincidence that the Income Tax Act was formally passed into law in the same year that the privately owned Federal Reserve Bank was incorporated and the people of the United States were deceived into losing their monetary independence to a central bank.

With monetary control over the ownership and distribution of wealth, as well as the immoral ability to charge interest on synthetic money, it serves to explain why the central banking cartel uses derivatives to financial engineer the daily gold fix. The daily gold fix is designed to prevent the final monetary solution for an out of control synthetic debt based economy and the full re‐introduction of the people’s monetary gold or silver.

In the last seven years of providing interest free money to a select privileged few, a staggering $57 trillion in newly created central bank synthetic currency has been issued, sufficient to incorporate one quarter of the world’s wealth for the connected few. In terms of the burden this places on the backs of the unsuspecting great body of people on the planet, it translates into $50,000 in real assets and resource wealth that has been put beyond the reach of every family in the world!!

It is an immoral out of control financial system directed without compassion against the great body of people who are forced to financially depend on a central banker’s economic charade. It imposes interest on a synthetic currency levied as private taxation on the most vulnerable in society. It employs counter party finance to remove vast middle class wealth resources from its host nation and in the “big short” uses financial engineering to rig the  values of every  asset  class. It  is the permanent  loss of  individual enterprise to expand a system of crony corporatism and in a cashless society it is the permanent loss of personal freedom to completely traceable finance.

It is beyond foolish to have faith in the objectives of the central banker’s ideology of monetarism that by ‘the brother’s’ stated design is a crooked scheme designed to continually benefit a privileged few insiders at the burden of the great body of unsuspecting people.

When the present one hundred year cycle of synthetic debt issuance has reached its limit, then the trapped central bankers do not have the ability to engineer further debt on the backs of the great body of people or provide money with tangible wealth to reset the system. Without additional debt finance or physical monetary capital the world economy and a great body of people on the planet are destined to die.

In the final monetary solution to get the economy back under control and provide the right ordering of the world – it is scientifically indisputable that only the cyclical laws of physics, which are the dynamic interaction of energy and matter, can provide for the economic good and benefit of one and all. To ensure the stability of asset prices in a well to do society that regenerates its own wealth, the money used for their enterprise must be independently backed by the value of gold held in treasury as monetary capital.

Enterprise is the energy of the individual that creates prosperity and gold is valuable matter to provide monetary capital, this is time proven to be the fundamental physicsof economic and monetary science. It is the only dynamic to ensure a nation has continual prosperity, can maintain full meaningful
employment and will create unstoppable progress.

It can be no other way.

The first of three articles in a series that are based on physics, the second Physics of Common Sense and the third Physics and Genetic, Financial & Social Engineering are posted on . David Bryan is author of The Tibetan Secret an inspirational trilogy that examines the astounding findings of Tibetan Sanskrit scholars that are based on physics, the blueprint for the right ordering of the world. Available on Amazon Kindle.

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Gold and Silver Bullion – News and Commentary

Gold finishes at more than 2-year high (Marketwatch)

Gold rises back above $1,360 as talk of U.S. rate hikes fades (Reuters)

Gold finishes at more than 2-year high (Marketwatch)

Largest importer of gold from UAE in 2015: Saudi Arabia (Emirates247)

Wealthy Tisch Family Sees Gold Diversification Double In Value  (Bloomberg)


3 conditions could push gold past $1,400 (CNBC)

Amid banking and Brexit bedlam, the case for gold looks bright (CNBC)

Inside the Bank of England’s gold vaults (UK BusinessInsider)

Trump Loves Gold and Don’t You Forget It (Bloomberg)

OMFIF’s David Marsh: Bank of Japan Stands to Make “Enormous” Losses (FinancialSense)

Forever debt, forever war (Capital&Conflict)

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

03Aug: USD 1,364.40, GBP 1,023.16 & EUR1,218.96 per ounce
29July: USD 1,332.50, GBP 1,012.03 & EUR1,200.18 per ounce
28July: USD 1,341.30, GBP 1,017.64 & EUR1,208.78 per ounce
27July: USD 1,320.8, GBP 1,077.77 & EUR1,200.21 per ounce
26July: USD 1,321.25, GBP 1,006.40 & EUR1,199.56 per ounce
25July: USD 1,315.00, GBP 1,000.32 & EUR1,196.91 per ounce
22July: USD 1,323.20, GBP 1,005.10 & EUR1,199.22 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

03Aug: USD 20.59, GBP 15.43 & EUR18.39 per ounce
29July: USD 20.4, GBP 15.2 & EUR18.03 per ounce
28July: USD 20.41, GBP 15.51 & EUR18.41 per ounce
27July: USD 19.58, GBP 14.95 & EUR17.81 per ounce
26July: USD 19.68, GBP 15 & EUR17.89 per ounce
25July: USD 19.41, GBP 14.77 & EUR17.66 per ounce
22July: USD 19.7, GBP 15.03 & EUR17.87 per ounce

Recent Market Updates

– Silver Kangaroo Coins – Sales Surge To Over 10 Million
– Trump, Clinton, “Ugliest” Election Coming – Gold’s “Summer Doldrums” Prior To Resumption of Bull Market
– Marc Faber: Invest 25% Of Investment Portfolios In Gold Bullion
– “Could Not Invent A More Bullish Story For Gold Bullion”
– Gold In Bull Market – “Every Reason For It To Continue” – Frisby In Money
– Is Gold Set To Hit $1,500 Per Ounce?
– Why Italy’s bank crisis could be a ‘ticking time bomb’
– Gold Holds Near Two-Week Low as Risk Appetite Rises on U.S. Data
– IMF Scraps Forecast for Global-Growth Pickup on Brexit Fallout
– Gold, Trump and Rates: Bank That Foresaw Rally Flags $1,500
– Gold Lower After Central Bank’s Surprise Move
– “We Are On the Cusp of an Explosion in the Silver Price”
– Stocks Rally – Is Brexit Systemic Risks Contained?

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director


In the latest chapter ( the 10 gold double eagle gold coins taken in 1933) has the USA winning ownership of the coins.

(courtesy  Reuters/Stempel)

U.S. wins latest court ruling on ownership of rare gold coins


By Jonathan Stempel
Monday, August 1, 2016

A federal appeals court on Monday said a cache of exceptionally rare gold coins stolen from the U.S. Mint in the 1930s belongs to the U.S. government, not the Pennsylvania family that possessed it for decades.

By a 9-3 vote, the 3rd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in Philadelphia said Joan Langbord and her sons Roy and David cannot keep the 10 “double eagle” 1933 $20 gold pieces, estimated to be worth several million dollars each.

Monday’s decision could end a decade-long battle that began after the Langbords, heirs to late Philadelphia jeweler Israel Switt, found the coins in a safe deposit box and asked the Mint to authenticate them, only to have them seized in 2004.

… For the remainder of the report:


Ronald Stoeferle explains why “gold is back”

(courtesy zero hedge)

Incrementum’s Stoeferle explains why ‘gold is back’


1:20p ET Tuesday, August 2, 2016

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Incrementum AG market analyst Ronald-Peter Stoeferle, best known lately for his “In Gold We Trust” reports, like the most recent one here —

— is interviewed today by Lars Schall for Matterhorn Asset Management’s Gold Switzerland Internet site, explaining why he believes “gold is back” and why the criticism of gold for not paying interest is supremely stupid. Stoeferle also praises GATA’s work, asserting that complaints of market manipulation are not mere “conspiracy theory” but fact.

The interview is 26 minutes long and is accompanied by a transcript at Gold Switzerland here:…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.


A JPM analyst is upset stating that central banks are rigging markets right after BREXIT.

(courtesy Chris Powell/GATA)

JPM analyst says central banks rigged markets after Brexit


11:35p ET Tuesday, August 2, 2016

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The financial news Internet site Value Walk reported today that JPMorganChase’s quantitative and derivatives strategy chief, Marko Kolanovic, this week issued a report asserting that the rise in stock markets after the United Kingdom’s vote to withdraw from the European Union was caused by central bank intervention:

That this qualifies as insight is pretty funny, considering that, a few days ahead of the vote in the UK, central banks actually announced their plan to intervene:

But Value Walk contends that Kolanovic’s conclusion is notable because it marks the first time central banks have been accused by an investment bank research report of “such direct market manipulation.”

That is, market intervention by central banks is so obvious now that even the biggest investment bank in the United States can concur with what a high school graduate told GATA’s Washington conference eight years ago: “There are no markets anymore, just interventions”:

Now that an analyst for JPMorganChase can admit it, could it be all right for mainstream financial news organizations to report it?

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.


Interesting, the GLD leaves out how much gold is stored at the Bank of England.  New SEC rules stipulate that the GLD must report how much gold is stored at its primary level and at the subcustodian level, namely the Bank of England

(courtesy Ronan Manly)

GLD Sponsor dodges disclosure details of Bank of England as gold sub-custodian in latest SEC filing

BullionStar's picture

by Ronan Manly, BullionStar

In a July 11 BullionStar article, “SPDR Gold Trust gold bars at the Bank of England vaults”, I highlighted that the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), in it’s Q1 2016 filing to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), disclosed that during the January – March 2016 quarter, the GLD custodian HSBC had employed the Bank of England as a sub-custodian to hold some of the Trust’s gold bars, and that the largest quantity of gold that the Bank of England had held on behalf of GLD during the January – March 2016 period was 29 tonnes.

Note that the financial year-end for the SPDR Gold Trust is 30 September each year, so that its Q1 is October – December, its Q2 is January to March, its Q3 is April – June, and its Q4 is July – September with a year-end at the end of September.

The GLD disclosure for the calendar first quarter of 2016, which revealed details of sub-custodians that the SPDR Gold Trust uses, had begun to appear in the 10-Q filing specifically at the behest of the SEC, which on 29 March 2016 had sent a letter to the GLD Sponsor, World Gold Trust Services, directing the Sponsor to:

In future Exchange Act periodic reports, to the extent material, please disclose the amount of the Trust’s assets that are held by subcustodians.

The letter was sent to World Gold Trust Services by the SEC’s Senior Attorney Office of Real Estate and Commodities, Kim McManus.

To Recap, for the quarter ended 31 March 2016, (which is the SPDR Gold Trust’s Q2), the 10-Q report stated:

“Subcustodians held no gold on behalf of the Trust as of March 31, 2016. During the quarter ended March 31, 2016, the greatest amount of gold held by subcustodians was approximately 29 tonnes or approximately 3.8% of the Trust’s gold at such date. The Bank of England held that gold as subcustodian.

I also pointed out in my previous article that:

Note that the wording of the 10-Q is such that it does not preclude the possibility that the Bank of England also held GLD gold at other times during Q1 2016, since it states “the greatest amount of gold” that the Bank of England held for the Trust was 29 tonnes. This implies that the Bank of England vaults could, at other times during Q1, have held less than 29 tonnes of gold on behalf of GLD.

My early July article also documented that:

“The second quarter saw a 15 tonne shrinkage of GLD’s gold holdings in April, but a very large 64.5 tonne increase in May, and a 81.4 tonne increase in June, making for a Q2 increase in GLD’s gold bar holdings of130.77 tonnes. Very large 1-day gold bar additions occurred on 24 and 27 June (18.4 tonnes and 13 tonnes respectively). Overall, that’s 307 tonnes added to GLD in the first half of 2016.”

Finally, I also looked forward to the release of the 2nd calendar quarter 10-Q filing with the SEC, saying:

“The SPDR Gold Trust 10-Q for the 2nd quarter of 2016 will be filed with the SEC in about 3 weeks time, at the end of July. With the continuing large inflows into GLD in Q2 2016 it will be interesting to see whether the name of Bank of England as subcustodian of GLD reappears in the Q2 filing?”

As it turns out, the Sponsor of the SPDR Gold Trust, World Gold Trust Services, which is a fully owned subsidiary of the World Gold Council, and which is responsible for compiling and submitting GLD quarterly and annual financial reports, actually filed its latest GLD 10-Q report (for the 3 months to June 30, 2016) on 2 August 2016, a few days later than it usually would do for a quarterly report.

Smoke and Mirrors

Quite shockingly and in my opinion misleadingly, this latest GLD 10-Q filing only says the following about sub-custodians:

“Subcustodians held no gold on behalf of the Trust as of June 30, 2016. During the nine months ended June 30, 2016, the greatest amount of gold held by subcustodians was approximately 29 tonnes or approximately 3.8% of the Trust’s gold at such date. The Bank of England held that gold as subcustodian.”

This 10-Q report is signed by the CEO and CFO of WORLD GOLD TRUST SERVICES, LLC, Sponsor of the SPDR® Gold Trust, namely:

  • Aram Shishmanian, Principal Executive Officer (CEO)
  •  Samantha McDonald, Principal Financial and Accounting Officer (CFO)

In my opinion the latest sub-custodian statement by World Gold Trust Services is misleading in its entirety, as well as being evasive and disingenuous. By failing to address the quarter ended June 30 2016, the World Gold Trust Service CEO and CFO are avoiding disclosure of the quantity of gold that was held by subcustodians of the GLD during April, May and June 2016. Recall the ordinance from the SEC on 29 March:

In future Exchange Act periodic reports, to the extent material, please disclose the amount of the Trust’s assets that are held by subcustodians.

This latest 10-Q statement is not in compliance with the SEC’s directive. It also goes against the spirit of the SEC’s request – since it doesn’t address the holdings of sub-custodian during the quarter that’s being reported on, i.e. the April to June 2016 period. The language used in the latest 10-Q seems to conveniently circumvent the SEC’s disclosure request by using evasive phraseology.

For example, what if the Bank of England as GLD subcustodian held 28 tonnes or 20 tonnes of gold bars on a particular day during the second quarter of 2016, would  Aram Shishmanian and Samantha McDonald not consider this material enough to tell the SEC about. That’s what their signed statement would suggest. More importantly, what would the SEC think about such a non-divulgence of a 28 tonne or 20 tonne sub-custodied position during any day of the April to June 2016 period, when it had specifically asked to be informed of such occurrences via the 10-Q filing? Recall that there were very large increases in GLD’s holdings during May and June, and some huge one-day increases in GLD gold bar holdings on 24 June (18.4 tonnes) and 27 June  (13 tonnes).

Side by Side Comparison

Let’s take the latest quarter and previous quarter sub-custodian statements and compare them side by side.  For the quarter ended March 31,  2016, the 10-Q report said:

“Subcustodians held no gold on behalf of the Trust as of March 31, 2016. During the quarter ended March 31, 2016, the greatest amount of gold held by subcustodians was approximately 29 tonnes or approximately 3.8% of the Trust’s gold at such date. The Bank of England held that gold as subcustodian.”

For the quarter ended June 30, 2016, the 10-Q report said:

“Subcustodians held no gold on behalf of the Trust as of June 30, 2016. During the nine months ended June 30, 2016, the greatest amount of gold held by subcustodians was approximately 29 tonnes or approximately 3.8% of the Trust’s gold at such date. The Bank of England held that gold as subcustodian.”

The very fact that the WGTS CEO and CFO revert to repeating a statement that was issued in the previous quarterly report and that applied to the first quarter of 2016, i.e. the statement in red above, shows that they are implicitly evading disclosure of new information from the April to June period. The statement in red is also irrelevant since it had already been disclosed in the previous 10-Q. By bundling it up and referring to the nine months ended June 30 2016, this smoke and mirrors tactic becomes obvious.

Given that it was only on March 29, 2016 that the SEC requested that WGTS disclose sub-custodian information, and that it requested “In future Exchange Act periodic reports … please disclose“ also underscores that the first three months of the nine-month period (i.e. October 2015 – December 2015) are irrelevant, and again highlights the deceptive nature of using a nine month time-frame in the latest statement. The SEC never asked for a disclosure about Q1 (October – December), just for disclosures about the quarters going forward.

Furthermore, the previous quarter disclosure specifically referred to “the quarter ended March 31, 2016”, and not the ‘six months’ ended March 31 2016. So why change the duration reporting to a “nine months ended June 30 2016” phraseology when it was previously a “quarter ended” phraseology? By moving to this ‘nine months’ misleading reporting device, it conveniently masks the disclosure of any sub-custodian details that might be applicable to the April – June quarter, such as Bank of England sub-custodianship of gold bars held within the SPDR Gold Trust.

And furthermore still, if you look at the latest 10-Q you will see that all of the other reporting in the 10-Q, such as financial highlights, divulges full data for three and nine month periods ended June 30, 2016. For example:

“Financial Highlights:

The Trust is presenting the following financial highlights related to investment performance and operations of a Share outstanding for the three and nine month periods ended June 30, 2016 and 2015.”

Therefore, the  financials in the latest 10-Q follow a reporting format of both 3 months and 9 months, but the WGTS does not see fit to report a statement about sub-custodian holdings during the latest 3 month period. This is inconsistent reporting and again points to a desire not to address sub-custodian activity during April – June 2016, specifically at the Bank of England.

Given that the revelation in the previous 10-Q report about the Bank of England being a sub-custodian of the SPDR Gold Trust was quite substantial news, surely the GLD Sponsor would want to address this topic in its subsequent 10-Q, even if it was to say that no GLD gold whatsoever passed through the Bank of England during the April – June period? However, it appears that they chose to construct and craft a selection of words through which to avoid addressing the issue.

Omission of Facts

Each 10-Q report submitted by World Gold Trust Services includes a number of appendices, one of which is an Exhibit 31.1, which is known as the “Certification of Chief Executive Officer, Pursuant to Rule 13a-14(a) AND 15d-14(a), Under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as Amended”. For the latest GLD 10-Q, this Exhibit 31.1 includes the statement that:

“I, Aram Shishmanian [WGTS CEO], certify that:

Based on my knowledge, this report does not contain any untrue statement of a material fact or omit to state a material fact necessary to make the statements made, in light of the circumstances under which such statements were made, not misleading with respect to the period covered by this report.

I would contend to the above certification, that the latest GLD 10-Q report does omit a statement of a material fact, i.e. disclosure of sub-custodians’ holdings as obligated by the SEC to disclose, or in the SEC’s words “the amount of the Trust’s assets that are held by subcustodians”; and that by omitting this information, the latest 10-Q report is “misleading with respect to the period covered”, which is the 3 months from 1 April 2016 to 30 June 2016.

The statement about sub-custodians in the latest 10-Q does not cover the period covered, i.e April – June 2016. It covers a nine month period. If none of the SPDR Gold Trust’s gold bars were held by sub-custodians during the April – June period, then why not say so?


It would be very interesting to see what the SEC thinks of this latest lack of disclosure from WGTS. It surely will raise some eyebrows at the SEC, since this is not what the SEC intended when it stated in its March 29 letter to WGTS that:

“Since the company and its management are in possession of all facts relating to a company’s disclosure, they are responsible for the accuracy and adequacy of the disclosures they have made.”

It also goes against the spirit of the request from the SEC’s Kim McManus, Senior Attorney Office of Real Estate and Commodities in her 29 March letter, and the promise by World Gold Trust Services’ CFO Samantha McDonald in her March 30, 2016 signed reply to the SEC that:

“We will, to the extent material, disclose in future periodic reports the amount of the Trust’s assets that are held by subcustodians”

It would be interesting to see what the audit comittee of World Gold Trust Services, which comprises WTGS board members William J Shea, Rocco Maggiotto and Neal Wolkoff, thinks of this latest evasive reporting language in the GLD’s 10-Q statement.

I will contact WGTS directly and ask for their opinion on the above, and whatever response is received, if any, I will update readers via this forum.

The Original version of this article appears at


Gold trading;  As promised, the bankers would orchestrate a raid on gold/silver

(courtesy zero hedge)

Gold Slides Off Brexit-Spike Highs, Oil Tumbles As Dollar Jumps

Having rallied back up to Brexit day spike highs at $1370, it appears – despite equity weakness – that a sudden burst of USD buying has sparked a brief slide in precious metals with gold retracing some of yesterday’s gains… Oil prices are also sliding on USD strength (having tagged $40).

Modest drop for now as 1370 support is lost…

With the USD Index spiking..

Oil is falling back after rallying to $40 after last night’s API data…

Charts: Bloomberg



Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight




2 Nikkei closed DOWN 308.64  OR 1.86% /USA: YEN rises TO 101.22

3. Europe stocks opened ALL mixed    /USA dollar index up to 95.29/Euro down to 1.1203

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO  -.087%     !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 101.22

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI::  39.93  and Brent: 42.10

3f Gold UP  /Yen DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” ON THE TABLE 

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP for Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10 yr bund RISES to -.032%   German bunds BASICALLY negative yields from  10+ years out

 Greece  sees its 2 year rate RISE to 8.32%/: 

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALL to  : 7.77%   (YIELD CURVE NOW  FLAT TO INVERTED)

3k Gold at $1365.20/silver $20.64(6:45 am est)   SILVER FINAL RESISTANCE AT $18.50 BROKEN 

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 23/100 in  roubles/dollar) 66.60-

3m oil into the 39 dollar handle for WTI and 42 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation  (already upon us). This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/China forced to do QE!! as it lowers its yuan value to the dollar/GOT a SMALL REVALUATION UPWARD from POBC.


30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9879 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0845 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.


3r the 10 Year German bund now NEGATIVE territory with the 10 year RISES to  -0.032%

/German 10+ year rate BASICALLY  negative%!!!


The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”.  Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.545% early this morning. Thirty year rate  at 2.286% /POLICY ERROR)

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)


World Stocks Drop For Third Day On Growing Concerns About Central Bank Policy, Tumbling Oil

After 7 consecutive drops in the Dow Jones, the Industrial average is set for an 8th decline with US equity futures modestly lower as risk-averse sentiment persists overnight, after U.S. stocks saw their biggest drop in four weeks amid a selloff in equities from Japan to Europe. Oil’s continued slide and recent plunge into a bear market, despite some stabilization this morning just south of $40, has finally rekindled global growth concerns, and is keeping a lid on bullishness. European stocks are little changed, while Asian stocks and S&P futures fall.

S&P 500 futures were 0.2% lower even with European equities little changed as HSBC Holdings Plc, Europe’s biggest bank, jumped after announcing a share buyback. Crude halted a two-day drop before an update on U.S. oil inventories, while gold was near its highest price since July 11. Industrial metals declined and the Malaysian ringgit and Turkish lira were some of the biggest losers among developing nations’ currencies.

“Investors are slowly realizing that with every spin of the central bank policy chamber the magazine is getting emptier,” said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets in London. “The larger concern here given recent market reaction to policy moves by central bankers is that policymakers are losing the confidence of investors,” he said.

World stocks fell for a third straight day on Wednesday, depressed by growing nervousness surrounding central bank policy and the recent spike in world bond yields, amd the MSCI’s global share index fell 0.5%, for its third straight decline, a run not seen since early June. Japan’s Nikkei fell 1.9 percent on ongoing fears the BOJ is no longer on the side of the market and a lower yen.

European bank shares rebounded after two major earnings reports. Shares in European banks HSBC and Societe Generale rose as much as 5% after reporting second quarter earnings, a glimmer of light for the region’s financials amid the recent gloom. HSBC reported earnings that missed expectations, however the bank rose rose the most since April after it announced a $2.5 billion stock buyback for this year and said it plans more share repurchases while keeping its dividend at the current level for the foreseeable future.

“The buyback signals HSBC’s strong capital position and should reassure investors of its ability to maintain the current 51-cent dividend,” Citigroup Inc. analysts led by Ronit Ghose wrote in a note to clients. So much for the theory that buybacks no longer push stocks higher.

However, the rebound in European banks failed to lift the broader European indexes as a rebound in banks amid positive earnings was offset by a slide in automakers. U.S. futures pointed to a softer open on Wall Street, down a modest 0.2% in the premarket.

“We have marked down our expectations for eurozone growth into 2017, as Brexit shock adds to preexisting downside risks from high political uncertainty, a less supportive fiscal stance and the risk of rising oil prices. But risks remain tilted to the downside: although we expect bank lending to the economy to expand, continued bank stress could challenge this view and weigh further on growth,” Deutsche Bank strategists including Marcos Arana write in note.

Earlier today we got the final print of European Service PMIs, most of which came in slightly better than the Flash estimate with the exception of Spain and Germany:

  • Spain July Services PMI 54.1, prior 56
  • Italy July Services PMI 52.0, prior 51.9
  • France July Services PMI 50.5, prior 50.3
  • Germany July Services PMI 54.4, prior 54.6
  • Eurozone July Services PMI 52.9, prior 52.7

Asia stocks headed for their steepest drop in more than a month as oil’s selloff revived concerns over global growth and after Japan’s fiscal stimulus package fell short of what some investors had expected. All 10 sectors fall with financials, utilities underperforming and telcos, materials outperformingIt is no longer just Japan’s disappointment that is pressuring risk but also the steep selloff in crude. “Lower oil prices seems to be impacting the risk sentiment negatively,” said Divya Devesh, a Singapore-based foreign-exchange strategist at Standard Chartered Plc. “If oil continues to decline it will be negative for emerging- market assets.”

The sharpest moves lately have been in sovereign bond markets where a sudden spike in yields stirred speculation that a multi-year bull run in prices might finally be nearing its end. However, this morning yields were little changed on the day, but still well up from recent lows following the shakeout in debt markets globally since the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting last Friday and as eyes turn to the Bank of England on Thursday.

While Japanese bonds steadied on Wednesday they have still suffered the worst sell-off in over three years as investors feared the BoJ was out of easing ammunition and might leave it to fiscal policy to stimulate the economy.  Bond bulls were worried the Bank of England might also under-deliver at its policy meeting on Thursday, putting the onus on debt-funded government spending to support growth.

“I would vote for no change in rates or QE (quantitative easing,” former BoE policymaker Charles Goodhart told Reuters, adding that the Bank has effectively run out of policy ammunition and that further stimulus would be ineffective. “There’s so much assumption that the Bank will cut rates that even though the effect of that will be minimal, they will do it, because not doing it would have an adverse effect on their credibility,” he said. The 10-year UK gilt yield was unchanged at 0.80 percent and the comparable Bund yielded -0.4 percent, both up around 10 basis points so far this week.

Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasuries were also little changed on the day at 1.54 percent US10YT=RR, and also up around 10 basis points this week, even though domestic data has generally been soft. The recent outbreak of weaker U.S. data has further pushed back expectations for when the Federal Reserve might hike rates — the market is not fully priced for a move until well into 2018 — and taken a heavy toll on the dollar.

In commodity markets, oil prices steadied in Asia but remained vulnerable to worries about a glut in both crude and refined product. Brent crude edged up 0.4% to $41.93 but remained near four-month lows reached on Wednesday. NYMEX crude rose 0.5% to $39.70 a barrel, but was still under the psychological $40 level.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 2148
  • Stoxx 600 down 0.1% to 335
  • FTSE 100 down 0.2% to 6634
  • DAX down 0.3% to 10117
  • German 10Yr yield down less than 1bp to -0.05%
  • Italian 10Yr yield down less than 1bp to 1.21%
  • Spanish 10Yr yield down less than 1bp to 1.07%
  • S&P GSCI Index up 0.3% to 331.9
  • MSCI Asia Pacific down 1.7% to 134
  • Nikkei 225 down 1.9% to 16083
  • Hang Seng down 1.8% to 21739
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 2978
  • S&P/ASX 200 down 1.4% to 5466
  • US 10-yr yield down 2bps to 1.54%
  • Dollar Index up 0.19% to 95.24
  • WTI Crude futures up 0.7% to $39.80
  • Brent Futures up 0.8% to $42.12
  • Gold spot up less than 0.1% to $1,364
  • Silver spot up less than 0.1% to $20.64

Top Global News

  • Enbridge, Marathon Agree to Buy $2 Billion Bakken Pipe Stake: Deal follows startup of line connecting Chicago to Patoka hub
  • Ford, GM U.S. Sales Miss Estimates With Honda Rare Bright Spot: Industry-wide sales rise 0.7% as incentives start to mount
  • AIG Announces $3b Buyback as Asset Sales Boost Profit: Operating profit of 98 cents a share beats analyst estimates; AIG curtails event-driven, long-short bets in hedge fund retreat
  • Uber’s Surrender And The Humbling of U.S. Tech Giants in China: Decision to throw in the towel in China holds lessons for Facebook, Apple and others still craving success in China
  • Alphabet Joins $100b Technology Rush to Bond Market: Google parent sold $2b of bonds Tuesday
  • Viacom Held Settlement Talks With National Amusements: CNBC/DJ: talks fell apart last week
  • Oil Options Echo Citi-to-Merrill View of a Brief Bear Market: Decline into bear market to be short-lived, analysts say

* * *

Looking at regional markets, we start in Asia where Asia traded negative following US losses,after oil once again weighed on equities with WTI crude below USD 40/bbl and the DJIA posting its 7th consecutive losing streak. A firmer JPY attributed to the pessimism regarding the Japanese stimulus package led Nikkei 225 (-1.9%) into negative territory, while ASX 200 (-1.4%) was pressured by weakness in energy names and financials after yesterday’s RBA rate cut. Chinese markets were mixed amid conflicting Caixin Composite and Services PMI data with the Hang Seng (-1.8%) catching up with yesterday’s losses after its market closure, while the Shanghai Comp (+0.3%) is positive following rate-cut rhetoric from the NDRC. 10yr JGBs found some reprieve from its recent slump amid the risk-averse sentiment in Japan which boosted demand for the paper, whilst the BoJ entered the market for a total of JPY 750b1n in government debt. BoJ Minutes from June 15th-16th meeting stated that Japan’s economy remains on its moderate recovery trend and that exports and output had been sluggish, due mainly to EM slowdown. Minutes also stated that the BoJ will check risks and add additional measures if needed. (BoJ) Note that the minutes’ release is from two meetings ago and thus are out of date.

Top Asian News

  • Didi, SoftBank Said to Lead $600 Million-Plus Round for Grab: Round could close as early as this week
  • China Said to Plan Index Futures Revival After Volumes Drop:Government has sought to balance control with free markets
  • Australia Cuts Rates to Record Low to Spur Inflation, Employment: Central bank lowers cash rate to 1.5% as economists expected
  • Japan Fiscal Plan Gives $45 Billion Spending Boost for This Year: Abe seeks to prop up economy after BOJ keeps action minimal
  • Mr. Yen Sees Rally Toward 90 per Dollar Spurring Intervention: Japan’s currency could break 100 this month, Sakakibara says
  • Nidec Agrees to Pay $1.2 Billion for Assets of Emerson Electric: Buyer to pay cash, expects to close deal in 3Q
  • Honda Profit Exceeds Estimates as Sales Climb in U.S., China: Sales in China spurred by a cut in purchase tax on some models
  • Philippine Telephone Net Drops 33% on Rocket Internet Loss: Dividend payout target cut to 60% of core income from 75%

European equities have spent much of the morning oscillating between gains and losses, trading largely unchanged by mid-morning (Euro Stoxx: +0.05%). In terms of a sector breakdown, financials have been outperforming amid the slew of firm’s earnings from the likes of SocGen (+4.5%), Credit Agricole (+2.6%), HSBC (+3.7%) and ING (+8.5%). While the final revisions for Eurozone Services which have fared better than expectations have somewhat lifted sentiment. Bunds have traded relatively sideways with prices flat on the day after the volatility seen during yesterday’s sessions, with some modest curve steepening in German paper during today’s session. As such, much of the price action stemmed from JGBs after a reprieve overnight.

Top European News

  • Standard Chartered 1H Profit Falls 46% on Revenue Drop: 1H adj. pretax misses ests.
  • HSBC Tempers Dividend Outlook, Plans Buyback as Profit Drops: ROE target dropped amid economic, political uncertainties
  • SocGen Profit Rises on Visa Gain, Lower Loan-Loss Provisions: Bank’s CET1 ratio unchanged in quarter at 11.1 percent
  • ING’s Profit Surges on Lending Growth and Lower Provisions: Net income more than triples in second three months of 2016
  • U.K. Bank Voice Warns of London’s Status Shrinking After Brexit: Britain should foster closer links to emerging markets, China
  • Rio Tinto Posts Worst Profit Since 2004 as New CEO Starts: ron ore, aluminum average prices dropped 14% in first half
  • Continental Sees 2H U.K. Car Demand Drop on Brexit: Company expects 2% rise in Europe car production in 2016
  • VW Warns of Plunge in China Industry Sales If Tax Cut Lapses: Co. posted record first-half deliveries in China
  • ECB’s Bond Buying Boosts Parts of the Market It Can’t Even Touch: Companies in Portugal take advantage of search for yield
  • Bank of England Picks Stimulus Tools on Eve of ‘Super Thursday’: At meetings on Wednesday, officials are finalizing plans to stave off a Brexit-related slowdown

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed 0.2 percent from a five-week low reached on Tuesday and the U.S. currency advanced versus all but one of its 16 major peers. The greenback has been under pressure as wagers that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates this year faded in recent weeks.The yen weakened 0.3 percent to 101.21 per dollar, after touching 100.68 on Tuesday, its strongest level since July 11. The Japanese government’s plan incorporates 13.5 trillion yen of fiscal measures — including 7.5 trillion yen in new spending starting this year, and 6 trillion yen in low-cost loans. “After all the build-up, it’s a disappointment,” Shane Oliver, a global investment strategist at AMP Capital Investors Ltd. in Sydney, which manages more than $110 billion, said by phone. The MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index slipped 0.3 percent, with the ringgit slumping 0.7 percent, the most in two weeks. South Korea’s won fell for a second day from the highest in more than a year.

In commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude added 0.6 percent to $39.76 a barrel, after falling 5 percent over the past two sessions. “The decline is not totally unexpected, but the speed and severity of the fall has been a surprise,” said Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Sydney. “Disruptions tightened the market during the second quarter and the sustainability of those was always going to be relatively short lived. There are still relatively high inventories but the market is approaching a balance.”U.S. oil inventories dropped by 1.34 million barrels and gasoline stockpiles fell, the American Petroleum Institute was said to have reported. Government data out Wednesday is forecast to show crude and motor fuel supplies decreased. Gold for immediate delivery was little changed at $1,364.25 an ounce, holding near a three-week high. Zinc fell 1 percent, while aluminum, copper and nickel all dropped more than 0.3 percent. Noble Group Ltd., the embattled commodities trader raising about $500 million in a rights issue, received a query from the Singapore exchange over trading of its shares after the stock lost as much as 15 percent.

* * *

Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk and Bloomberg

  • European equities struggle to find firm direction, while financials lead the way amid positive earnings from SocGen, Credit Agricole and ING.
  • UK Services PMI confirms 1st contraction in 43 months ahead of tomorrow’s key BoE meeting.
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP, Services PMI, ISM Non Mfg & Composite PMI, as well as comments from Fed’s Evan.
  • Treasuries rally on long-end, global equities mixed and WTI crude rises but remains under $40/barrel; U.S. Treasury’s August refunding announcement at 8:30am ET; decision on 2-month bill introduction isn’t expected.
  • The record-setting global bond market rally is coming undone. The average yield on bonds in Bank of America Corp.’s G-7 Government Index climbed to 0.58%, the highest level in five weeks. The move is a rebound from the record low of 0.45% set in July
  • Japanese government bonds’ steepest tumble in more than three years is feeding speculation that central-bank easing is nearing its limits
  • China’s futures exchange is planning to relax the restrictions on stock-index contracts that sparked a 99% plunge in trading and heightened concern over the government’s intervention in markets, according to people familiar with the matter
  • With investment opportunities sparse amid China’s weakest economic expansion in a quarter century, Chinese firms reported an 18% jump in cash holdings during their latest quarter, the biggest increase in six years
  • China sold 35.8 billion yuan ($5.4 billion) 10-year sovereign bonds at 2.74%, the lowest cost since at least 2004 as concern over the nation’s growth prospects boosted demand for havens
  • American International Group reduced bets on event-driven and long-short strategies as the insurer scaled back hedge fund investments
  • Six years of austerity are being reviewed by U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May’s government amid signs the decision to quit the European Union is propelling the economy toward its first contraction since 2009
  • Societe Generale jumped after France’s second-largest bank reported second-quarter profit that beat analyst estimates, capping a string of positive results for the country’s lenders
  • ING Groep NV rose the most in six months after the Dutch lender said second-quarter profit more than tripled, benefiting from a boost in lending income and lower provisions for loan losses

* * *

DB’s Jim Reid completes the overnight wrap

The week so far in markets is going to age people if it carries on like it has. Oil has consolidated in bear market territory, 10yr JGB’s saw a 48hour 25bps swing and nearly traded back above zero at one point yesterday for the first time since March 16th, the Yen has busted up against 100 vs. the USD for the first time since November 2013, Euro Bank Stocks are already -5.10% this week, the Dow (-0.49%) was down for its 7th day in a row yesterday and the S&P 500 (-0.64%) closed at its lowest level since July 13th. According to CNN, Donald Trump even confirmed that he’s sold out of equities yesterday and that there are ‘very scary scenarios’ ahead for investors!

Making sense of all this it’s worth tackling this one-by-one. Starting with Japan, outside of a weak JGB auction yesterday and disappointment from the BoJ at the end of last week, after we went to print yesterday we got confirmation from the Japanese government for a fiscal stimulus package totalling ¥28tn. That was as expected but it was the details that the market focused on and generally it was underwhelmed. Indeed our Japan economist note that it is the size of the second supplementary budget for FY2016 which is important and they estimate that the addition to final demand would be ¥1tn at most during FY2016 and ¥2tn at most during FY17. More details on all this can be found in the attached report.

There’s been little relief for Japanese equities this morning with the Nikkei and Topix -1.53% and -1.95% respectively. JGB yields are slightly lower if anything (10y 1bp lower) and the Yen is roughly unchanged.

Meanwhile, weakness for European banks continues to dominate the wires with Friday’s reasonably sanguine stress tests now quickly becoming a distant memory. Yesterday Commerzbank’s share price closed -9.2% after the bank painted a gloomier view for profits over the remainder of the year relative to the guidance given in April. The other notable piece of news for the sector was the report in Italian press Messaggero suggesting that Unicredit (which tumbled -7.2%) may be considering a €7-8bn capital increase, underscoring investor and analyst fears that more is needed for Italian banks. Staying with banks, it was interesting to note yesterday the rare decoupling between Bund yields and bank equities which was also evident on Monday. 10y Bund yields finished up 6.2bps yesterday (at -0.040%) which compares to that big slide for bank equities. Since the start of the year we’ve highlighted the very close correlation between declining bond yields (to zero and below) and bank equities. Indeed since the start of the year through to the end of July, 10y Bund yields dropped from 0.626% to -0.119% (a move of 75bps) while the Stoxx 600 banks index has a total return of -24.3% in the same time. However in the two days of August so far, 10y Bund yields are 8.3bps higher and bank equities have returned -5.10%. An interesting dynamic to keep an eye on.

Speaking of a break down in correlations, it’s also interesting to see that in contrast to what we saw in January and February, the recent leg lower for Oil into a bear market has had a much more marginal impact on US HY energy spreads so far compared to what we got six months ago. Indeed in the time that WTI Oil has tumbled 23% from the June 8th highs, US HY energy spreads are remarkably just 4bps wider (to Monday’s close of 793bps). There has been some signs of weakness in the last couple weeks however as spreads have widened nearly 70bps from the July tights. However, compare that to the 30% or so slide in Oil from the end of 2015 to the February lows, US HY energy spreads blew out 550bps to a wide mark of 1932bps.

Staying with credit, yesterday we published a Credit Bites looking at the latest quarterly senior loan officer survey we discussed in yesterday’s EMR. We update the charts looking at the correlation between the net tightening of C&I lending standards and default rates and also the correlation between the US yield curve and the C&I survey. Given the yield curve is a lead indicator it points to further quarters of net tightening ahead. We also look at the weakness in bank stocks on both side of the Atlantic and speculate as to whether this will also help tighten lending standards over the next year. Overall we’d argue that recent trends are still supportive of our late cycle view, particularly in the US. The question of how late and when this should start to change our constructive view on credit markets is the main question over the coming months.

We’ll get a few additional clues as to whether our late cycle thesis is correct by the week in the form of the payroll report. Ahead of this today sees the ADP appetiser where we’ll see if any trend can be observed. A reminder that DB’s Joe LaVorgna is expecting a below consensus 150k on Friday (vs. 180k consensus) which is broadly in line with the 3-month trailing average. The 2014 and 2015 average was 229k and 251k respectively. The consensus for ADP today is 170k and the 3month average is currently 163k. In 2014 and 2015 this series averaged 234k and 207k respectively. We’ll also get the non-manufacturing ISM survey this afternoon covering the July month which DB is expecting to print at 56.0 versus the market at 55.9 (June was 56.5). The employment component here is also worth keeping an eye on ahead of payrolls although it’s worth noting that the correlation of this component to payrolls is higher over a longer time period, rather than a reliable single monthly gauge.
Quickly looking at the rest of Asia this morning, China aside it’s been another fairly weak start across much of the region. Having stayed closed yesterday the Hang Seng (-1.73%) has reopened heavily in the red, while the Kospi (-0.70%) and ASX (-1.04%) are also down. The Shanghai Comp (+0.20%) is a touch higher despite the Caixin services PMI weakening last month (-1pt to 51.7). Oil has recouped about half a percent, while US equity index futures are marginally in the red.

In terms of the data yesterday, there wasn’t too much to take out of the June personal income and spending data in the US. Personal income rose a slightly lower than expected +0.2% mom (vs. +0.3% expected) while personal spending (+0.4% vs. +0.3% expected) was a touch higher than expected. The PCE deflator rose +0.1% mom (vs. +0.2% expected) to leave the YoY rate unchanged at +0.9% while the PCE was in line at +0.1% mom and +1.6% yoy. Later in the evening we got the latest vehicle sales numbers which came in higher than expected. Total vehicle sales rose to an annualized rate of 17.8m saar in July from 16.6m, while expectations had been for 17.3m. US auto equities had been particularly weak leading into that data yesterday after GM and Ford had earlier reported declines in light vehicle sales. 10y Treasury yields climbed higher yesterday (+3.4bps) although that more reflected the weakness in foreign sovereign bond markets and also a deluge of corporate supply including Monday’s bumper deal from Microsoft and also Alphabet’s offering yesterday.

Before we wrap up, yesterday Michal from my team published an update on the ECB’s Corporate Sector Purchase Programme (CSPP). Firstly, he reviewed the pace of primary and secondary-market purchases so far, providing a list of corporate bonds currently owned by the ECB/Eurosystem. The pace of total purchases has been in line with our forecast of €5+bn per month on average but the strength of secondary-market buying has surprised on the upside. Secondly, he looked at the apparent primary market picks and pans, noting that some new issues that appear CSPP-eligible have not been bought even if the ECB does not own any bonds from the issuers yet. We point out that despite a modest amount of primary purchases, the ECB has bought 8% of the amount of newly issued CSPP-eligible bonds. Thirdly, we provide an update on the performance of CSPP-eligible, non-bank ineligible and bank senior bonds in light of our recently revised CSPP strategy. As published last week, we no longer see value in being overweight CSPP-eligible bonds and underweight bank bonds, hence our move to market-neutral weights. Email if you didn’t receive a copy.

Looking at today’s calendar, this morning in Europe we’ll get the confirmation of the July PMI’s when the services and composite readings get released. We’ll also get a first look at the data for the periphery, while away from that Euro area retail sales for June will get released. In the US this afternoon, along with the ADP print and ISM non-manufacturing, the final PMI’s (services and composite) are also due out. Earnings will continue to be a big focus for markets too. 30 S&P 500 companies are set to report including Time Warner before the open and Prudential and MetLife after the close. In European there are more banks due to report including Unicredit, ING Group and Societe Generale.


i)Late  TUESDAY night/WEDNESDAY morning: Shanghai closed UP 7.18 POINTS OR 0.24%/ /Hang Sang closed down 390.02 points or 1.76%. The Nikkei closed down 308.64 POINTS OR 1.86% Australia’s all ordinaires  CLOSED down 1.35% Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.6311/Oil rose to 39.83 dollars per barrel for WTI and 42.08 for Brent. Stocks in Europe ALL mixed . Offshore yuan trades  6.6356 yuan to the dollar vs 6.6311 for onshore yuan.THE SPREAD BETWEEN ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE NARROWS SLIGHTLY AS CHINA TRIES TO STOP MORE USA DOLLARS LEAVING THEIR SHORES  



Nomura’s top credit analyst predicts the 30 yr JAPANESE  bond yield will plunge to zero

(courtesy zero hedge)

Japan’s Top Credit Analyst Predicts 30Y Treasury Yield Plunging To Zero In 2 Years

To some, it may be the top-tick announcement of the year. To others, it is merely the latest admission that the world is headed into a deflationary singularity, just before everything explodes into a hyperinflationary supernova.

In a time when one strategist after another is pointing to the latest rebound in rates and bond yields, and furiously declaring – to anyone who cares to listen – that this is it, yields are now and forever done going lower, Toshihiro Uomoto, Nomura Holdings’s chief credit strategist, in a report issued overnight, forecast that the yield on 30-year US Treasuries could plunge to zero in two years as a result of yield-starved “Japanese money” flooding the US and chasing returns of US Treasuries.

The resulting decline in global yields will “weigh on consumer sentiment, put pressure on banks’ interest income, and may result in more stimulus from central banks” the Nomura analyst predicts. But who is he: just another deflationary crackpot with bonds to sell to clients? Actually, Uomoto has been ranked as Japan’s top credit analyst by Nikkei Veritas for three of the past four years according to Bloomberg.

And before the laughing begins, let’s recall that about a year ago one could count on zero fingers the number of experts and analysts who said there would be $13 trillion in negative yield debt right about now.

According to Uomoto, even if the BOJ slightly reduces its JGB monetization, its effect would be limited to marginal steepening in Japan’s sovereign yield curve. Such a move from the BOJ is unlikely to undermine downward pressure from the negative interest rate policy. He adds that a reduction in JGB buying could be a realistic option as negative rate policy may be seen as having sufficiently lowered yield curve.

“The trend toward declining interest revenues from falling rates will accelerate and give birth to a vicious circle,” he wrote. Uomoto also told Bloomberg that he didn’t see Treasury yields going negative because the Fed isn’t in the market buying bonds, unlike the Bank of Japan.

We would take the literal under on that, because to anyone who says the Fed isn’t monetizing bonds, the response is very simple: “yet.” After all someone will have to fund all those trillions in fisccal stimulus programs that either Trump or Hillary are preparing to unveil.



I do not like what I see here:  China’s Defense Minister warns to prepare for war at sea:

(courtesy zero hedge)

Prepare For “War At Sea” China Defense Minister Warns

In the latest escalation of bellicose rhetoric over the territorial dispute involving the South China Sea, Chinese Defense Minister Chang Wanquan warned of “offshore security threats” and urged for a “substantial preparation for a people’s war at sea” to safeguard sovereignty, China’s Xinhua writes.

The warning comes a day after China launched a massive naval drill which is set to prepare China for a “sudden, cruel and short” war.

Chang was speaking during an inspection of national defence work in coastal regions of east China’s Zhejiang Province. He called for recognition of the seriousness of the national security situation, especially the threat from the sea.

Chang said the military, police and people should prepare for mobilization to defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity. He also asked to promote national defense education among the public.

This latest escalation in war rhetoric comes amid unprecedented tensions over the disputed islands in the South China Sea, where Beijing has been building airstrips and military installations on reclaimed reefs and islands in waters also claimed by a number of other Asian states.

The US Navy has dispatched warships and military planes to the immediate proximity of the disputed islands, claiming it has done so to ensure the principles of freedom of navigation in international waters. Washington has been also involved in a number of military drills in the region. Beijing has slammed the naval and aerial displays by the US as provocations, and reinforced installation on the islands with anti-ship missile and air-defense complexes.

Today’s unexpected escalation comes hot on the heels of another angry response from China, when its nationalistic Global China Times newspaper wrote an Op-Ed claiming that the “US would suffer more in war with China“, in response to a Rand Corporation report which listed four hypothetical scenarios for a US-China war.

It said that “China doesn’t want wars, a war with the US in particular. The only possible scenario for a Sino-US war is that the US corners China on its doorstep with unacceptable provocations and China has to fight back.”

We will be very prudent about going to war, but if a war is triggered, we will have greater determination than the US to fight it to the end and we can endure more losses than the US.

The contiguous US can only avoid being stricken under the condition that China’s land is not attacked. The island disputes in the West Pacific are unlikely to lead to war.

The biggest risks that countries such as Japan and the Philippines will be embroiled into war come from their alliances with the US, which will tie them to the chariot of the US.

So as the US media freaks out over whether Trump may or may not use nukes, China is actively looking for a “provocation” (perhaps one China will gladly provide) from the current US administration that will give it the popular justification to start what may transform into World War 4.


Wow! for the 3rd day in a row, Italy’s largest bank, Unicredit is halted limit down as the entire European banking system has totally failed. The way the banking shaes are behaving,it seems that want a bail in or out!

(courtesy zero hedge)


European Banking System Bloodbath Continues Post-Stress-Test

For the 3rd day in a row, Unicredit shares are halted limit down as the “confidence-inspiring” European banking system stress tests have utterly failed… as European banking stocks are reeling once again (now down 10% post-stress-test).

But it’s not just Italy… the entire European banking system’s stocks are tumbling once again… down 10% now from the stress-test bounce.

A sea of red the last 3 days…

Is the market demanding a bail-“out”?




Well, it did not take long for the new 15% tax on housing in Vancouver( if the buyer is foreign) to have a deleterious effect in the housing market as Chinese citizens walk away from their deposit instead of paying the tax.  This will no doubt cause a ripple effect of cascading defaults

(courtesy zerohedge)

“The Deals Are Collapsing” – Vancouver’s Housing Bubble Has Burst


A susprisingly large draw at Cushing (according to API) overnight sparked buying in crude ahead of today’s DOE data (despite USD strength). Despite API’s 1.34mm draw, DOE reported a 1.4mm build in Crude inventories (with a 2mm draw expected). Crude plunged on the data despite a big draw in gasoline (but build in Distillates). But, after 3 weeks of production rises, US crude output slowed this week… sending crude higher once again…


  • Crude -1.34mm (-2mm exp)
  • Cushing -1.3mm (+1mm exp)…Genscape reported a small (<100k) draw for Cushing.
  • Gasoline -450k (-1mm exp)
  • Distillates+593k


  • Crude  +1.41mm(-2mm exp)
  • Cushing -1.12mm (+1mm exp)
  • Gasoline -3.2mm (-1mm exp)
  • Distillates +1.15mm

Crude surprised with a 2nd build in a row:

Production dropped for the first time in 4 weeks as crude imports rose to the highest since Oct 2012:

Some good news emerged for the soaring gasoline glut, which saw a 3.3MM drop in inventories.

Even so, stocks are still 21.5 million higher, or 11.8%, from this time a year ago. Of this number East Coast, PADD1, gasoline stocks fell 1.2 million bbl but were still 11.5mm bbl higher than 2015.

Oddly, the drop in gasoline stocks happened even as refinery usage rose, with throughput rising 266,000 b/d from the past week, if still 223,000 lower than a year ago.

Having rallied back over $40 this morning post-API, despite USD strength, WTI plunged on the crude build…before the algos ripped it higher on the production cut (and perhaps gasoline draw)


Charts: Bloomberg



Then for no apparent reason, the algos bought WTI, driving the price equal to yesterday’s highs as the crooks run their stops.

(courtesy zero hedge)


Oil Algos Panic-Buy WTI To Yesterday’s Highs, Run Stops

Just because….

Stops run low.. and high…

Now what?


Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings/WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 am




USA/CAN 1.3122 UP .0016

Early THIS WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 15 basis points, trading now JUST above the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1203; Europe is still reacting to Gr Britain BREXIT,deflation, announcements of massive stimulation (QE), a proxy middle east war, and the ramifications of a default at the Austrian Hypo bank, an imminent default of Greece, Glencore, Nysmark and the Ukraine, along with rising peripheral bond yield further stimulation as the EU is moving more into NIRP, and NOW THE USA’S NON tightening by FAILING TO RAISE THEIR INTEREST RATE / Last night the Shanghai composite DOWN 7,17 POINTS OR  .24%    / Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 208.64 POINTS OR 1.86%     /AUSTRALIA IS LOWER BY 1.35% / EUROPEAN BOURSES  MIXED

We are seeing that the 3 major global carry trades are being unwound. The BIGGY is the first one;

1. the total dollar global short is 9 trillion USA and as such we are now witnessing a sea of red blood on the streets as derivatives blow up with the massive rise in the rise in the dollar against all paper currencies and especially with the fall of the yuan carry trade. The emerging market which house close to 50% of the 9 trillion dollar short is feeling the massive pain as their debt is quite unmanageable.

2, the Nikkei average vs gold carry trade ( NIKKEI blowing up and the yen carry trade HAS BLOWN up/and now NIRP)

3. Short Swiss franc/long assets blew up ( Eastern European housing/Nikkei etc.

These massive carry trades are terribly offside as they are being unwound. It is causing global deflation ( we are at debt saturation already) as the world reacts to lack of demand and a scarcity of debt collateral. Bourses around the globe are reacting in kind to these events as well as the potential for a GREXIT>

The NIKKEI: this WEDNESDAY morning CLOSED DOWN 308.64 POINTS OR 1.86%  

Trading from Europe and Asia:
1. Europe stocks MIXED 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / : Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 390.02 OR 1.76%   ,Shanghai CLOSED UP 7.18 OR .24%    / Australia BOURSE IN THE RED: /Nikkei (Japan)CLOSED DOWN 308.64 OR 1.86%  /INDIA’S Sensex IN THE RED  

Gold very early morning trading: $1364.25


Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.545% !!! UP 1  in basis points from TUESDAY night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%. The 30 yr bond yield RISES to 2.286  PAR in basis points from TUESDAY night. (SPREAD GOES AGAINST THE BANKS)

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 95.29 UP 18 CENTS from TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING


And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS

Portuguese 10 year bond yield:  2.94% UP 1 in basis points from TUESDAY  (does not buy the rally)

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -0.083% up 3 in   basis points from TUESDAY

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.09% UP 1 IN basis points from TUESDAY (this is totally nuts!!/

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.22 par in basis points from TUESDAY (again totally nuts/)

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 13 points HIGHER than Spain.




Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/3:30 PM

Euro/USA 1.1144 DOWN .0074 (Euro DOWN 74 basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/

USA/Japan: 101.17 UP 0.103(Yen DOWN 10 basis points/


USA/Canada 1.3081-DOWN 0.0025 (Canadian dollar UP 25 basis points AS OIL fell (WTI AT $40.89). Canada keeps rate at 0.5% and does not cut!


This afternoon, the Euro was DOWN by 74 basis points to trade at 1.1144

The Yen FELL to 101.17 for a LOSS of 10 basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED 

The POUND was DOWN 19 basis points, trading at 1.3342 AS PRIME MINISTER THERESA MAY TAKES OFFICE/

The Canadian dollar ROSE by 25 basis points to 1.3081, WITH WTI OIL AT:  $40.90


The USA/Yuan closed at 6.6320

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.083% DOWN 3  IN BASIS  points in yield/

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield: UP 1 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 1.543% //trading well below the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)

USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.294 UP 1  in basis points on the day /


Your closing USA dollar index, 95.59 UP 52 CENTS  ON THE DAY/4 PM 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY

London:  CLOSED DOWN 11.00 OR 0.17%
German Dax :CLOSED UP 25.87 OR  0.26%
Paris Cac  CLOSED  UP 6.91  OR 0.16%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 13.80 OR 0.17%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 31.47 OR 0.20%

The Dow was UP 41.23 points or 0.23%

NASDAQ  UP 22.02 points or 0.43%
WTI Oil price; 40.90 at 4:30 pm;

Brent Oil: 43.17




This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today

Closing Price for Oil, 5 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:


BRENT: 43.40

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.552% 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 95.55 UP 45 cents

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.33211 DOWN .0013 or 13 basis pts.

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: -.038%


And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver


Crude Oilgasm Rescues Dow From Longest Losing Streak In 5 Years

Look at oil today…


Then consider…


Only one thing mattered today… avoid an 8th down day in The Dow at all costs (which would be the worst losing streak since Aug 2011)… with a panic bid into the close for good measure…


All Oil, all day…


Trannies and Small Caps outperformed as the opening squeeze hit most-shorted once again…


VIX was clubbed like a baby seal to ensure green markets today… As we warned – still all bout S&P 2150…


Nasdaq managed to scramble back green for the week…


As Energy stocks ripped…


HY rallied back a little today…


ISM data at 10ET seemed to snap Treasury yields higher but DOe data at 1030 also marked the day’s high in yields, leaving yields 2-3bps lower on the day (belly outperforming wings)…


Notably the 2s30s curve is 10bps steeper on the week…


The USD Index bounced back today as cable (BOE tomorrow) and JPY (extraordinary meeting) weakened…


USD gains appeared to weigh on copper and precious metals…


Charts: Bloomberg




Auto sales has been a bright light in the economy.  It seems that USA auto sales are now faltering badly:


(courtesy zero hedge)

July U.S. Auto Sales – The Good, The Bad, & The Downright Ugly

The private ADP report and it’s findings show that it lags payrolls.  Goods producingjobs as well as constructions jobs falter

(courtesy zero hedge/ADP private jobs reports)

ADP Employment Continues To Lag Payrolls As Goods-Producing, Construction Jobs Slide

Following June’s epic bounceback in nonfarm payrolls – the biggest delta to ADP in 6 years – Zandi and his crew at ADP ‘got back to work’. June’s 172k print was revised higher to 176k with July’s 179k print beating expectations of 170k modestly (but still well below the payrolls levels). Once again goods-producing jobs fell (down 6k) as Services dominated (+185k) as ADP warns “this month’s employment number falls short of the 12-month average primarily because of slowing in small business hiring.” The weakness in construction spending is echoed in ADP’s reported slide in construction jobs.

ADP continues to lag payrolls with notable increase in volatility…

And the tumble in construction jobs suggests construction spending is set to notably tumble…

Full breakdown below:

The charts:

Change in Nonfarm Private Employment

Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment

Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Company Size

Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Selected Industry

As ADP details:

Goods-producing employment was down by 6,000 jobs in July, following June losses of 28,000. The construction industry lost 6,000 jobs, following June losses of 4,000 jobs. Meanwhile, manufacturing gained 4,000 jobs after losing 15,000 the previous month.

Service-providing employment rose by 185,000 jobs in July, fewer than June’s 203,000 jobs. The ADP National Employment Report indicates that professional/business services contributed 59,000 jobs, down from June’s 78,000. Trade/transportation/utilities increased by 27,000 jobs in July, down from 41,000 jobs added the previous month. Financial activities added 11,000 jobs, following last month’s gain of 9,000 jobs.

“This month’s employment number falls short of the 12-month average primarily because of slowing in small business hiring,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and head of the ADP Research Institute. “As the labor market continues to tighten, small businesses may increasingly face challenges when it comes to offering wages that can compete with larger businesses.”

Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Job growth remains strong, but is moderating as the economy approaches full employment. Businesses are having a more difficult time filling open job positions, which are near record highs. The nation’s biggest economic problem will soon be the lack of available workers.”


My goodness:  this is going to go over well during the elction:

The White house provided 1.7 billion USA taxpayer money over to Tehran to ensure the nuclear accord’s success:

(courtesy zero hedge)

(courtesy Service PMI/ISM service/zero hedge)

Services Data Disappoints: Suggests “No Signs Of US Economy Moving Up A Gear” In Q3

Strange reporting on this darling company owned by many hedge funds.  They have burned over 500 million dollars and has now reached its bank funding limit.

It reported that it delivered fewer cars because it was producing more cars???

Non GAAP loses were 1.02 per share.  Surprisingly the stock is up in after hours

(courtesy zero hedge)

Tesla Misses, Burns Nearly Half A Billion, Warns It Has Hit Bank “Funding Limit”: Stock Rises

Well that about does it for tonight

I will see you tomorrow night


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