Gold $1265.10 down $65.30
Silver 18.10 down 70 cents
THE DAILY GOLD FIX REPORT FROM SHANGHAI AND LONDON
The Shanghai fix is at 10:15 pm est and 2:15 am est
The fix for London is at 5:30 am est (first fix) and 10 am est (second fix)
Thus Shanghai’s second fix corresponds to 195 minutes before London’s first fix.
And now the fix recordings:
Shanghai morning fix Oct 3 (10:15 pm est last night): $ holiday
NY ACCESS PRICE: $
Shanghai afternoon fix: 2: 15 am est (second fix/early morning):$ holiday
NY ACCESS PRICE:
London Fix: Sept 30: 5:30 am est: $1309.15 (NY: same time: $: 5:30AM)
London Second fix Sept 30: 10 am est: $1283.30 (NY same time: $xxx , 10 AM)
It seems that Shanghai pricing is higher than the other two , (NY and London). The spread has been occurring on a regular basis and thus I expect to see arbitrage happening as investors buy the lower priced NY gold and sell to China at the higher price. This should drain the comex.
Also why would mining companies hand in their gold to the comex and receive constantly lower prices. They would be open to lawsuits if they knowingly continue to supply the comex despite the fact that they could be receiving higher prices in Shanghai.
For comex gold:
the total number of notices filed today : 758 for 75,800 oz (2.35 tonnes)
for the Oct contract month: 1 notices for 5,000 oz.
today was nothing but criminal activity with a massive drive by shooting. This is occurring because the regulators are on the side of the bankers. China is back tonight and will bring the price of gold/silver back to normal.
Let us have a look at the data for today
In silver, the total open interest ROSE by 277 contracts UP to 201,977. The open interest ROSE as the silver price was down 43 cents in yesteray’s trading .In ounces, the OI is still represented by just MORE THAN 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.0004 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 144% of annual global silver production (ex Russia &ex China).
In silver for October we had 1 notice served upon for 5,000 oz
In gold, the total comex gold FELL by 3,285 contracts as the price of gold fell by $4.30 yesterday . The total gold OI stands at 553,347 contracts. The bankers have done a great job fleecing longs and as usual the entire gold comex OI obliterates
With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:
LAST NIGHT WE HAD NO CHANGES OUT OF THE GLD//
Total gold inventory rests tonight at: 949.14 tonnes of gold
we had no changes at the SLV
THE SLV Inventory rests at: 362.909 million oz
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1. Today, we had the open interest in silver ROSE by 277 contracts UP to 201,977 as the price of silver fell by 34 cents with yesterday’s trading.The gold open interest FELL by 5,989 contracts DOWN to 553,347 as the price of gold fell $4.30 IN YESTERDAY TRADING.
2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report
2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore
and in NY: Bloomberg
Let us head over to the comex:
The total gold comex open interest FELL BY 5989 CONTRACTS to an OI level of 553,347 the as price of gold fell by $4.30 with yesterday’s trading.
The contract month of Sept is now off the board. The next delivery month is October and here the OI lost 3163 contracts down to 1295. We had 3005 notices filed on yesterday so we lost 158 contracts or 15,800 oz will not stand AND no doubt that most of these were cash settled.
The next delivery month is November and here the OI rose by 6 contracts up to 2238 contracts. The next contract month and the biggest of the year is December and here this month showed an decrease of 3,292 contracts down to 434,131.
And now for the wild silver comex results. Total silver OI ROSE BY 277 contracts from 201,700 up to 201,977 as the price of silver fell to the tune of 34 cents yesterday. We are moving CLOSER TO the all time record high for silver open interest set on Wednesday August 3: (224,540). The next non active delivery month is October and here the OI fell by 6 contracts down to 196. We had 1 notice filed on yesterday so we lost 5 contracts or 25,000 additional oz will not stand for delivery.The November contract month saw its OI rise by 1 contracts up to 400. The next major delivery month is December and here it FELL BY 328 contracts DOWN to 170,545.
today we had 1 notices filed for silver: 5,000 oz
|Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz||NIL|
|Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz nil||
|Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz||nil oz|
|Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz||
|No of oz served (contracts) today||
|No of oz to be served (notices)||
|Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month||
|Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month||oz|
|Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month||96.45 oz|
Today, 0 notices were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued form their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 758 contract of which 112 notices were stopped (received) by jPMorgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped received) by jPMorgan customer account.
|Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory||NIL|
|Withdrawals from Customer Inventory||
|Deposits to the Dealer Inventory||
|Deposits to the Customer Inventory||
|No of oz served today (contracts)||
|No of oz to be served (notices)||
|Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)||313 contracts (1,565,000 oz)|
|Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month||NIL oz|
|Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month||420,010.27 oz|
Not only DB lost over 40% so has Credit Suisse
(courtesy zero hedge)
Gundlach: “Deutsche Bank Will Be Bailed Out But What About Credit Suisse”
Last Thursday, when Deutsche Bank was flailing ahead of the now confirmed fake report of a reduced settlement with the DOJ, Reuters spoke to Jeff Gundlach about his thoughts regarding the German lender, his advice was simple: don’t touch it. “I would just stay away. It’s un-analyzable,” Gundlach said about Deutsche Bank shares and debt. “It’s too binary.” Gundlach said investors who are betting against shares in Deutsche Bank might find it futile. Maybe, but not if they cover their shorts before the max pain point, something which the market – where equity/CDS pair trades now allow a “go for default” strategy – will actively seek out.
“The market is going to push down Deutsche Bank until there is some recognition of support. They will get assistance, if need be.”
What happens then? “One day, Deutsche Bank shares will go up 40 percent. And it will be the day the government bails them out. That jump will happen in a minute,” Gundlach said. “It is about an event which is completely out of your control.”
The very next day his forecast was proven largely accurate, when DB soared some 25% from its overnight lows on, if not a bailout, then a report of a potentiel reprieve, even if the report ultimately ended up being wrong.
Then, earlier today, during the Grant’s Fall 2016 investment conference, Gundlach once again discussed the troubled German bank and said that “you cannot save your faltering economy by killing your financial system and one of the clear poster children for this is Deutsche Bank’s stock price,” Gundlach, 56, said at Grant’s Fall 2016 Investment Conference on Tuesday in New York. “If you keep these negative interest rate policies for a sufficient future period of time you are going to bankrupt these banks.”
Europe’s banks have seen their value shrink by about $280 billion this year, with Deutsche Bank losing almost half its market value. Germany’s largest lender extended losses after the U.S. Department of Justice last month requested $14 billion to settle a probe into residential mortgage-backed securities, sparking concerns that it will have to raise capital.
Repeating what he said one week ago, Gundlach added that while the Frankfurt-based bank would ultimately be rescued by the German government if needed, other banks in the region wouldn’t be able to count on such support, Gundlach said.
“Deutsche Bank will be supported by Germany if push comes to shove,” he said. “But what about Credit Suisse, which has shown a similar decline in stock price? Who’s there to bail them out?”
As Bloomberg notes, having been largely forgotten in the din surrounding DB, Credit Suisse has lost about 40 percent of its value this year. The Swiss bank raised about $6 billion of capital last year under new Chief Executive Officer Tidjane Thiam to help fund a restructuring plan.
Joining the “other” bond king who earlier today railed against unorthodox monetary policies, Gundlach warned again that negative rates risk undermining the proper functioning of capital markets, and blamed European banking’s woes on the ECB’s policies.
However, what is a trapped central bank to do: Gundlach pointed out that even the Federal Reserve, which has not cut rates below zero, is seeing signs that its policies aren’t working. Gundlach has said that interest rates bottomed in July and that the market is looking for signs of fiscal stimulus and accelerating inflation. He’s predicting that rates on the U.S. 10-year bond may surpass 2 percent by the end of 2016. Which may explain why Gundlach told the Grant’s confernce audience that for the first time in years, he favored TIPS, which he has in the CORE fund, over nominal Treasuries.
“For the first time in years, I am long TIPS,” he said.
In a separate interview with Reuters, Gundlach added: “Implied future inflation priced into TIPS is low, too low for the environment likely to unfold over the next decade. Nominal Treasuries are likely to underperform TIPs over an institutional investment horizon.”
While his inflationary bet may be premature, investors don’t seem to think so: DoubleLine posted a net inflow of $444.4 million into its open-end mutual funds in September, marking the Los Angeles-based firm’s 32nd consecutive month of inflows, while the $61.8 billion DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund, the largest fund by total assets of the DoubleLine Funds, had a net inflow of $190.9 million in September, for a year-to-date net inflow of $8.3 billion.
Deutsche bank falls today on a report that they are mulling a capital raise
(courtesy zero hedge)
Deutsche Bank Stock Slides On Report Management “Mulling A Capital Raise”
Despite asserting numerous times that everything is awesome, Deutsche Bank is reportedly mulling a bonus freeze and more importantly a capital raise, according to German newsletter PLATOW Online.
As Bloomberg reports,Deutsche Bank is weighing a capital increase in tandem with a one-time bonus-freeze in a combination of measures aimed at shaking off short-sellers pummeling the stock, Platow Brief reported, without saying where it got the information.
A spokesman for Deutsche Bank declined to comment.
The stock gave some back…
The stock remains notably decoupled from credit…
But the stock sbounced back on this…
German newsletter says Deutsche Bank increasingly confident it can reach agreement with DOJ on fines by end of Oct.
Estimates DOJ settlement could be between $4b and $5b
And gold goes down today?
(courtesy consortium news,com)
Obama Warned To Defuse Tensions With Russia, “Unintended Consequences Likely To Be Catastrophic”
A group of ex-U.S. intelligence officials is warning President Obama to defuse growing tensions with Russia over Syria by reining in the demonization of President Putin and asserting White House civilian control over the Pentagon.
ALERT MEMORANDUM FOR: The President
FROM: Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity
SUBJECT: PREVENTING STILL WORSE IN SYRIA
We write to alert you, as we did President George W. Bush, six weeks before the attack on Iraq, that the consequences of limiting your circle of advisers to a small, relatively inexperienced coterie with a dubious record for wisdom can prove disastrous.* Our concern this time regards Syria.
We are hoping that your President’s Daily Brief tomorrow will give appropriate attention to Saturday’s warning by Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova: “If the US launches a direct aggression against Damascus and the Syrian Army, it would cause a terrible, tectonic shift not only in the country, but in the entire region.”
Speaking on Russian TV, she warned of those whose “logic is ‘why do we need diplomacy’ … when there is power … and methods of resolving a problem by power. We already know this logic; there is nothing new about it. It usually ends with one thing – full-scale war.”
We are also hoping that this is not the first you have heard of this – no doubt officially approved – statement. If on Sundays you rely on the “mainstream” press, you may well have missed it. In the Washington Post, an abridged report of Zakharova’s remarks (nothing about “full-scale war”) was buried in the last paragraph of an 11-paragraph article titled “Hospital in Aleppo is hit again by bombs.” Sunday’s New York Times totally ignored the Foreign Ministry spokesperson’s statements.
In our view, it would be a huge mistake to allow your national security advisers to follow the example of the Post and Times in minimizing the importance of Zakharova’s remarks.
Events over the past several weeks have led Russian officials to distrust Secretary of State John Kerry. Indeed, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who parses his words carefully, has publicly expressed that distrust. Some Russian officials suspect that Kerry has been playing a double game; others believe that, however much he may strive for progress through diplomacy, he cannot deliver on his commitments because the Pentagon undercuts him every time. We believe that this lack of trust is a challenge that must be overcome and that, at this point, only you can accomplish this.
It should not be attributed to paranoia on the Russians’ part that they suspect the Sept. 17 U.S. and Australian air attacks on Syrian army troops that killed 62 and wounded 100 was no “mistake,” but rather a deliberate attempt to scuttle the partial cease-fire Kerry and Lavrov had agreed on – with your approval and that of President Putin – that took effect just five days earlier.
In public remarks bordering on the insubordinate, senior Pentagon officials showed unusually open skepticism regarding key aspects of the Kerry-Lavrov deal. We can assume that what Lavrov has told his boss in private is close to his uncharacteristically blunt words on Russian NTV on Sept. 26:
“My good friend John Kerry … is under fierce criticism from the US military machine. Despite the fact that, as always, [they] made assurances that the US Commander in Chief, President Barack Obama, supported him in his contacts with Russia (he confirmed that during his meeting with President Vladimir Putin), apparently the military does not really listen to the Commander in Chief.”
Lavrov’s words are not mere rhetoric. He also criticized JCS Chairman Joseph Dunford for telling Congress that he opposed sharing intelligence with Russia, “after the agreements concluded on direct orders of Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Barack Obama stipulated that they would share intelligence. … It is difficult to work with such partners. …”
Policy differences between the White House and the Pentagon are rarely as openly expressed as they are now over policy on Syria. We suggest you get hold of a new book to be released this week titled The General vs. the President: MacArthur and Truman at the Brink of Nuclear War by master historian H. W. Brands. It includes testimony, earlier redacted, that sheds light on why President Truman dismissed WWII hero Gen. Douglas MacArthur from command of U.N. forces in Korea in April 1951. One early reviewer notes that “Brands’s narrative makes us wonder about challenges of military versus civilian leadership we still face today.” You may find this new book more relevant at this point in time than the Team of Rivals.
The door to further negotiations remains ajar. In recent days, officials of the Russian foreign and defense ministries, as well as President Putin’s spokesman, have carefully avoided shutting that door, and we find it a good sign that Secretary Kerry has been on the phone with Foreign Minister Lavrov. And the Russians have also emphasized Moscow’s continued willingness to honor previous agreements on Syria.
In the Kremlin’s view, Russia has far more skin in the game than the U.S. does. Thousands of Russian dissident terrorists have found their way to Syria, where they obtain weapons, funding, and practical experience in waging violent insurgency. There is understandable worry on Moscow’s part over the threat they will pose when they come back home. In addition, President Putin can be assumed to be under the same kind of pressure you face from the military to order it to try to clean out the mess in Syria “once and for all,” regardless how dim the prospects for a military solution are for either side in Syria.
We are aware that many in Congress and the “mainstream” media are now calling on you to up the ante and respond – overtly or covertly or both – with more violence in Syria. Shades of the “Washington Playbook,” about which you spoke derisively in interviews with the Atlantic’s Jeffrey Goldberg earlier this year. We take some encouragement in your acknowledgment to Goldberg that the “playbook” can be “a trap that can lead to bad decisions” – not to mention doing “stupid stuff.”
Goldberg wrote that you felt the Pentagon had “jammed” you on the troop surge for Afghanistan seven years ago and that the same thing almost happened three years ago on Syria, before President Putin persuaded Syria to surrender its chemical weapons for destruction. It seems that the kind of approach that worked then should be tried now, as well – particularly if you are starting to feel jammed once again.
Incidentally, it would be helpful toward that end if you had one of your staffers tell the “mainstream” media to tone down it puerile, nasty – and for the most part unjustified and certainly unhelpful – personal vilification of President Putin.
Renewing direct dialogue with President Putin might well offer the best chance to ensure an end, finally, to unwanted “jamming.” We believe John Kerry is correct in emphasizing how frightfully complicated the disarray in Syria is amid the various vying interests and factions. At the same time, he has already done much of the necessary spadework and has found Lavrov for the most part, a helpful partner.
Still, in view of lingering Russian – and not only Russian – skepticism regarding the strength of your support for your secretary of state, we believe that discussions at the highest level would be the best way to prevent hotheads on either side from risking the kind of armed confrontation that nobody should want.
Therefore, we strongly recommend that you invite President Putin to meet with you in a mutually convenient place, in order to try to sort things out and prevent still worse for the people of Syria.
In the wake of the carnage of World War II, Winston Churchill made an observation that is equally applicable to our 21st Century: “To jaw, jaw, jaw, is better than to war, war, war.”
For the Steering Group, Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity
William Binney, former Technical Director, World Geopolitical & Military Analysis, NSA; co-founder, SIGINT Automation Research Center (ret.)
Fred Costello, Former Russian Linguist, USAF
Mike Gravel, former Adjutant, top secret control officer, Communications Intelligence Service; special agent of the Counter Intelligence Corps and former United States Senator
Matthew Hoh, former Capt., USMC, Iraq & Foreign Service Officer, Afghanistan (associate VIPS)
Larry C. Johnson, CIA & State Department (ret.)
John Kiriakou, former CIA counterterrorism officer and former senior investigator, Senate Foreign Relations Committee
Linda Lewis, WMD preparedness policy analyst, USDA (ret.) (associate VIPS)
Edward Loomis, NSA, Cryptologic Computer Scientist (ret.)
Ray McGovern, former US Army infantry/intelligence officer & CIA analyst (ret.)
Elizabeth Murray, Deputy National Intelligence Officer for Middle East, CIA (ret.)
Todd Pierce, MAJ, US Army Judge Advocate (ret.)
Coleen Rowley, Division Counsel & Special Agent, FBI (ret.)
Kirk Wiebe, former Senior Analyst, SIGINT Automation Research Center, NSA, (ret.)
Robert Wing, former Foreign Service Officer
Ann Wright, U.S. Army Reserve Colonel (ret) and former U.S. Diplomat
* In a Memorandum to President Bush criticizing Colin Powell’s address to the UN earlier on February 5, 2003, VIPS ended with these words: “After watching Secretary Powell today, we are convinced that you would be well served if you widened the discussion … beyond the circle of those advisers clearly bent on a war for which we see no compelling reason and from which we believe the unintended consequences are likely to be catastrophic.”
This will be fun.
(courtesy zero hedge)
Clinton Foundation Allegedly Hacked Exposing Thousands Of Donor Databases; “Pay To Play” Folder
While the hack of the Clinton Foundation was foreshadowed two months ago, moments ago notorious hacker Gufficer 2.0, who previously was responsible for hacking the DNC and DNCC not to mention the resignation of Debbie Wasserman Shultz, announced that the moment “many of you have been waiting for” has come, by revealing that the Clinton Foundation has been hacked.
This is what Guccifer 2.0, who has denied being affiliated with the Russian government claiming that like the original Guccifer he is from Romania, posted moments ago on his website:
So, this is the moment. I hacked the Clinton Foundation server and downloaded hundreds of thousands of docs and donors’ databases.
Hillary Clinton and her staff don’t even bother about the information security. It was just a matter of time to gain access to the Clinton Foundation server.
The unknown hacker has allegedly exposed 1,000 of Hillary donors (a small list of master donors can be found here)…
…corporate donations made to various House representatives….
…as well as Wall Street bank donations, curiously cross-referenced to how much TARP funding they received.
As Guccifer notes,” It looks like big banks and corporations agreed to donate to the Democrats a certain percentage of the allocated TARP funds.”
Guccifer 2.0 also posted a note to Julian Assange who was mocked on Tuesday morning after he failed to produce Clinton documents he has long claimed to have.
“P.S. I’m pleased to congratulate Wikileaks on their 10th anniversary!!!,” Guccifer 2.0 writes. “Julian, you are really cool! Stay safe and sound!”
* * *
But the most interesting, and perhaps damning, finding is the following: a root directory snapshot revealing a folder which Hillary may have some trouble explaining: “Pay to Play”
The hacker also provides a link to the hundreds of thousands of other documents he has access to saying“I can’t post all databases here for they’re too large. I’m looking for a better way to release them now.”
We will go through the files, with a focus on Pay to Play because this may be the clearest confirmation that after repeated accusations that the Clinton Foundation was primarily a conduit for rich donors to get access to privileged kickbacks, or well “pay to play”, this was indeed the case, although the fact that someone actually left a folder with that name in the foundation’s server makes us wonder if someone is really that stupid, or whether this hack is even real.
To be sure, as The Hill notes, some of the files contained in the leaked data dump appear to originate not from the Foundation but from the DNCC:
A sampling of the posted documents include a spreadsheet of big bank donations, a list of primarily California donors, an outdated spreadsheet of some Republican House members — and a screenshot of files he claimed to have obtained, one of which was titled “Pay to Play.”
But there are a number of red flags that suggest the documents are in fact from a previous hack on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), not a new hack on the Clinton Foundation.
A spot check of some of the people on the donor list against FEC filings found that they all lined up with DCCC contributions.
The Clinton Foundation discloses its donors, and many of the alleged donors published by Guccifer 2.0 do not appear to have given to the organization.
One spreadsheet was allegedly created by a Kevin C. McKeon at DCCC in 2009. There was a Kevin McKeon that worked at DCCC at that time.
The Clinton Foundation has denied the hack, with president Donna Shalala saying that “none of the files or folders shown are ours.”