OCT 19/Wikileaks (on Clinton email scandal)It sure looks like Hillary has committed perjury: Wikileaks: as for her personal emails…. “I asked that they be deleted”!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!/China unleashes massive stimulus last month equal to 1/4 trillion USA/Russia deploys largest naval fleet to Syria as they escalate war tensions/

Gold $1267.90 UP  $7.10

Silver 17.62 UP 3 cents

In the access market 5:15 pm

Gold: 1269.50

Silver: 17.69

THE DAILY GOLD FIX REPORT FROM SHANGHAI AND LONDON

.

The Shanghai fix is at 10:15 pm est and 2:15 am est

The fix for London is at 5:30  am est (first fix) and 10 am est (second fix)

Thus Shanghai’s second fix corresponds to 195 minutes before London’s first fix.

And now the fix recordings:

Shanghai morning fix OCT 18 (10:15 pm est last night): $  1267.16

NY ACCESS PRICE: $1263.75 (AT THE EXACT SAME TIME)

Shanghai afternoon fix:  2: 15 am est (second fix/early  morning):$   1265.60

NY ACCESS PRICE: 1261.75 (AT THE EXACT SAME TIME)

HUGE SPREAD TODAY!!  4 dollars

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

London Fix: OCT 19: 5:30 am est:  $1269.75   (NY: same time:  $1266.75:    5:30AM)

London Second fix OCT 19: 10 am est:  $1269.80  (NY same time: $1269.80 ,    10 AM)

 

Shanghai premium in silver over NY:  87 cents.

It seems that Shanghai pricing is higher than the other  two , (NY and London). The spread has been occurring on a regular basis and thus I expect to see arbitrage happening as investors buy the lower priced NY gold and sell to China at the higher price. This should drain the comex.

Also why would mining companies hand in their gold to the comex and receive constantly lower prices.  They would be open to lawsuits if they knowingly continue to supply the comex despite the fact that they could be receiving higher prices in Shanghai.

end

For comex gold: 

11  NOTICES FILED FOR 1100 OZ

For silver:

for the Oct contract month:  0 notices for nil oz.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Let us have a look at the data for today

.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

In silver, the total open interest ROSE by 2317 contracts UP to 189,229. The open interest ROSE as the silver price was UP 16 cents in yesterday’s trading .In ounces, the OI is still represented by just less THAN 1 BILLION oz i.e. .946 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 135% of annual global silver production (ex Russia &ex China).

In silver for October we had 0 notices served upon for NIL oz

In gold, the total comex gold ROSE by 4,124 contracts with the RISE  in price of gold( $6.40 YESTERDAY) . The total gold OI stands at 497,061 contracts.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD

TODAY WE HAD NO CHANGES AT THE GLD:

Total gold inventory rests tonight at: 967.21 tonnes of gold

SLV

we had a good sized deposit of .855 million oz at the SLV/

THE SLV Inventory rests at: 363.140 million oz

.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in silver ROSE by 2,317 contracts UP to 189,229 as the price of silver ROSE by 16 cents with yesterday’s trading.The gold open interest ROSE by 4124 contracts UP to 497,061 as the price of gold ROSE $6.40 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING.

(report Harvey).

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

 

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY:  Bloomberg

end

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late  TUESDAY night/WEDNESDAY morning: Shanghai closed UP 0.844 POINTS OR 0.03%/ /Hang Sang closed DOWN 89.42 POINTS OR 0.38%. The Nikkei closed UP 35.30 POINTS OR 0.21% Australia’s all ordinaires  CLOSED UP 0.414% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.7367/Oil ROSE to 50.91 dollars per barrel for WTI and 52.33 for Brent. Stocks in Europe: ALL IN THE RED   Offshore yuan trades  6.7417 yuan to the dollar vs 6.7367 for onshore yuan.THE SPREAD BETWEEN ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE NARROWS A BIT  AS MORE USA DOLLARS ATTEMPT TO  LEAVE CHINA’S SHORES

REPORT ON JAPAN  SOUTH KOREA NORTH KOREA AND CHINA

3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA

none today

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

none today

c) REPORT ON CHINA

i)In just one month, China injects another 1/4 trillion dollars of debt (Total Social Financing) to jump start their economy. That is equivalent to 2.5 trillion USA dollars per year or 25% of their entire GDP. However that is not the scary part:  you must also include two other very important debt items:  Government debt, sovereign and local  as well as the huge shadow banking sector: Peer to Peer lending. The total rate of debt expansion is twice the level of GDP

( zero hedge)

ii)Global markets hardly move as China just manages to meet GDP expectations of 6.7% Here are the other important data points for China this morning!

( zero hedge)

 

4 EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)GERMANY/ENGLAND

(Merkel is said to offer no back door concessions to England as the enter discussions on a BREXIT.  The problem for Merkel is that Germany will be the net loser as their exports to England will falter badly especially in the light of the lower pound

( zero hedge)

ii)GERMANY

Problems  continue with respect to refugees from Africa:

(courtesy zero hedge)

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Russia is getting ready for war: they are deploying the largest naval force since the cold war.  It is heading for Syria.

( zero hedge)

6.GLOBAL ISSUES

none today

7.OIL ISSUES

WTI rises after another huge inventory drawdown. However production increases.

(courtesy zero hedge)

8.EMERGING MARKETS

this once prosperous nation with the world’s largest oil reserves has now gone into its death spiral.  Probably within one month or two it will default on its debt and hopefully their misery will end and they can start over but they need to rid themselves of their leader Maduro

( zero hedge)

9.PHYSICAL STORIES

i)Silver eagle demand (as well as gold eagle demand return to extremely high levels in October as the world economy shakes:

( SRSRocco/ Steve St Angelo)

ii)Chris Powell questions why the Wall Street Journal must question central banking!

( Chris Powell/GATA)

iii)The media is trying to portray Trump’s campaign as anti-semitic, which is furthest from the truth..it is Hillary’s campaign with its closer ties to Iran that must be viewed as dangerous.

( zero hedge)

iv)GATA”s main focus has always been on central banks and not bullion banks

( Chris Powell/GATA)

v)As we pointed out to you last week, premiums are now surfacing in India for the first time in 9 months.  This is in spite  of a 10% tax and excise duties:

( Reuters)

10.USA STORIES WHICH MAY INFLUENCE THE PRICE OF GOLD/SILVER

i)What a story!! Massive voter fraud exposed by project Veritas Part ii

( zero hedge)

ii)Michael Snyder explains why Obama is threatening Russia with Word War iii, right before the election.

a very important commentary
( Michael Snyder/EconomicCollapse Blog)
iii)A good indicator of how good the USA economy is performing:  the Cass freight index takes another dive southbound

( Mish Shedlock)

iv)It sure looks like Hillary has committed perjury: Wikileaks:

as for her personal emails….

“I asked that they be deleted”!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(courtesy zero hedge)

Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest ROSE BY 4124 CONTRACTS to an OI level of 497,061 as the price of gold ROSE $6.40 with YESTERDAY’S trading.

We are in the delivery month is October and here the OI LOST 6 contracts DOWN to 121. We had 5 notices filed yesterday so we lost 1 contract or 100 additional oz will not stand.

The next delivery month is November and here the OI FELL by 32 contract(s) DOWN to 3004 contracts. This level is extremely elevated as generally November is a very poor delivery month.To give you an idea of size, on Oct 18 2015, we had an OI of only 248 contracts.The next contract month and the biggest of the year is December and here this month showed an decrease of 597  contracts up to 367,212.

 

Today we had  11 notices filed for 1100 oz of gold.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.  Total silver OI ROSE BY 2317 contracts from 186,912 UP TO 189,229 as the  price of silver ROSE  to the tune of 4 cents yesterday.  We are moving  further from the all time record high for silver open interest set on Wednesday August 3:  (224,540).  The next non active delivery month is October and here the OI rose by 13 contracts up to 163. We had 0 notices filed yesterday so we gained 13 contracts or 65,000 additional oz will stand for delivery.The November contract month saw its OI LOSE 1 contract DOWN to 329.   The next major delivery month is December and here it ROSE BY 524 contracts UP to 149,177.

VOLUMES:

Today the estimated volume was 131,988 contracts which is fair.

Yesterday, the confirmed volume was 165,006 which is also poor.

today we had 1 notice filed for 5,000 oz of silver:

INITIAL standings for OCTOBER
 Oct 19.
Gold
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz  NIL
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz  nil
138,239.094 oz
HSBC
MALCA
SCOTIA
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz 
 1100.000 oz
BRINKS
???
No of oz served (contracts) today
11 notices 
1100 oz
No of oz to be served (notices)
110 contracts
 11,000
oz
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
8535 contracts
854,500 oz
26.544 tonnes
Total accumulative withdrawals  of gold from the Dealers inventory this month    oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month    313,673.1 oz
Today we had 0 kilobar transactions, ONE EXACT TRANSACTION  and a HUGE amount OF GOLD leaving the comex
Today we had 0 deposit into the dealer:
total dealer deposits:  nil oz
We had zero dealer withdrawals:
total dealer withdrawals:  nil oz
.
We had 1 customer deposit;
i) into Brinks: 1100.000 oz
exact weight???
total customer deposits; 1100.000oz
We had 3 customer withdrawal(s)
i) Out of HSBC; 6,1972.992 oz
ii) Out of Malca:  66,456.117 oz
This removes all of Malca’s customer gold and they are left with zero oz. of customer gold
iii)Out of Scotia:  65,609.985 o
total customer withdrawal: 138,239.094  oz
We had 2 adjustment(s)
i) Out of Brinks: 9894.700 oz was adjusted from the dealer and this entered the customer account of Brinks
ii) Out of HSBC: 6566.144 oz was adjusted from the dealer and this entered the customer account of Brinks
total leaving the dealer:  16,455.844 in an obvious settlement.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Total dealer inventor 2,289,209.366 or 71.204 tonnes
Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) =10,468,366.656. or 325.60 tonnes 
 
Several months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today the total inventory rests at 325.60 tonnes for a  gain of 23  tonnes over that period.  Since August 8 we have lost 28 tonnes leaving the comex. However I am including kilobar transactions and they are very suspect at best.
For October:

Today, 0 notices were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued form their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 11 contractS  of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by jPMorgan dealer and  11 notice(s) was (were) stopped received) by jPMorgan customer account.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the initial total number of gold ounces standing for the Oct contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (8535) x 100 oz or 853,500 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT (121 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (11) x 100 oz per contract equals 864,600 oz, the number of ounces standing in this  NON active month of September.
 
Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPT contract month:
No of notices served so far (8535) x 100 oz  or ounces + {OI for the front month (121) minus the number of  notices served upon today (11) x 100 oz which equals 864,500 oz standing in this non active delivery month of Oct  (26.889 tonnes).
we LOST 100 additional oz standing in this active delivery month of October and I believe that this is a record standing for October. To give you an idea of size from last yr, we had only a little over 2 tonnes standing at the conclusion of Oct 2015!
The gold comex is an absolute fraud.  The use of kilobars and exact weights makes the data totally absurd and fraudulent! To me, the only thing that makes sense is the fact that “kilobars: are entries of hypothecated gold sent to other jurisdictions so that they will not be short with their underwritten derivatives in that jurisdiction.  This would be similar to the rehypothecated gold used by Jon Corzine
 
IN THE LAST TWO MONTHS  28 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.
end
And now for silver
 
OCT INITIAL standings
 Oct 19. 2016
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
235,780.35 oz
CNT
Scotia
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory 
 nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
0 CONTRACT(S)
(NIL OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
163 contracts
(815,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 356 contracts (1,780,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month  NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal  of silver from the Customer inventory this month  5,191,804.6 oz
today, we had 0 deposit into the dealer account:
total dealer deposit: nil oz
we had 0 dealer withdrawals:
 total dealer withdrawals: nil oz
we had 2 customer withdrawals:
i) Out of CNT:: 174,851.340
ii) out of Scotia: 60,929.01
Total customer withdrawals: 235,780.35  oz
We had 0 customer deposits:
 
 
 we had 0 adjustment(s) 
Volumes:
Today the estimated volume was 43,834 which is VERY GOOD.
Yesterday the confirmed volume was 67,577 which is EXCELLENT
The total number of notices filed today for the Oct contract month is represented by 0 contract(s )for NIL oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  356 x 5,000 oz  = 1,780,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT (163) and the number of notices served upon today (0) x 5000 oz equals the number of ounces standing 
 
Thus the initial standings for silver for the OCT contract month:  356(notices served so far)x 5000 oz +(163) OI for front month of SEPT ) -number of notices served upon today (0)x 5000 oz  equals  2,595,000 oz  of silver standing for the OCT contract month. THIS IS STILL A HUGE SHOWING FOR SILVER AS OCTOBER IS GENERALLY A VERY WEAK DELIVERY MONTH.
We gained 65,000 additional silver ounces THAT WILL STAND.
 
Total dealer silver:  29.286 million (close to record low inventory  
Total number of dealer and customer silver:   173.490 million oz
The total open interest on silver is NOW close to its all time high with the record of 224,540 being set AUGUST 3.2016.  The registered silver (dealer silver) is NOW NEAR  multi year lows as silver is being drawn out at both dealer and customer levels and heading to China and other destinations. The shear movement of silver into and out of the vaults signify that something is going on in silver.
end
And now the Gold inventory at the GLD
OCT 19/no change in gold inventory at the GLD inventory/inventory rests at 967.21 tonnes
OCT 18/A DEPOSIT OF 1.78 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT967.21 TONNES
OCT 17/ A DEPOSIT OF 3.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 965.43 TONNES/IN 10 DAYS 16.29 TONNES DEPOSITED
Oct 14./NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE GLD
OCT 13/a deposit of 2.67 tonnes of gold into the GLD/inventory rests  at 961.57 tonnes
Oct 12/No changes in inventory/inventory rests at 958.90 tonnes
Oct 11/ what!!! we had a gigantic 9.76 tonnes of inventory increase today/inventory rests at 958.90 tonnes.  (this was done with gold down?)
Oct 7:  949.14 tonnes
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Oct 19/ Inventory rests tonight at 967.21 tonnes
*IN LAST 12 DAYS:  18.07 TONNES ADDED INTO THE GLD

end

Now the SLV Inventory
oCT 19/a good sized change at the SLV inventory: a deposit of 855,000 oz/rests at 363.140 million oz/
OCT 18/NO CHANGES AT THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.285 MILLION OZ
OCT 17/NO CHANGES AT THE SLV/INVENTOR RESTS AT 362.285 MILLION OZ/
oCT 14: A HUGE ADDITION (DEPOSIT) OF 1.138 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 362.285 MILLION OZ
OCT 13/ NO CHANGES  in inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 361.147 million oz
Oct 12:NO CHANGES  in inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 361.147 million oz
Oct 11/ a withdrawal of 1.762 million oz of inventory from the SLV/Inventory rests at 361.147 million oz/
.
Oct 19.2016: Inventory 363.140 million oz
 end

NPV for Sprott and Central Fund of Canada

Central fund data not available today.

1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative 3.7 percent to NAV usa funds and Negative 3.5% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!! 
Percentage of fund in gold 60.7%
Percentage of fund in silver:38.3%
cash .+1.0%( Oct 19/2016).
2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): Premium FALLS to +1.22%!!!! NAV (OCT 19/2016) 
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV  FALLS TO  0.75% to NAV  ( OCT 19/2016)
Note: Sprott silver trust back  into POSITIVE territory at 1.22% /Sprott physical gold trust is back into positive territory at 0.75%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail.
 
 
 

end

And now your overnight trading in gold,WEDNESDAY MORNING and also physical stories that may interest you:

Trading in gold and silver overnight in Asia and Europe

“Higher Gold Prices” On Global Trade Slowdown – HSBC

HSBC’s respected chief precious metals analyst James Steel has written a note pointing out that the global trade slowdown will likely lead to “higher gold prices” as reported by Bloomberg.

Analysts at HSBC Group Inc. are telling clients that gold may be about to have another shining moment, as the precious metal’s status as a safe haven asset could boost prices, given the prospect of a looming downward shift in globalization.

The firm’s Chief Precious Metals Analyst James Steel says in a note published on Friday that “demand for gold is often stimulated by the same factors that fan protectionist and populist sentiment” and that “abrupt declines in cross border trade, investment and immigration, the dislocation of global economic policies, and a beggar-thy-neighbor approach to trade is almost tailor-made for higher gold prices.”

Previously, Steel advocated owning gold as a “long term insurance policy”.

When asked about whether he has a “message for gold bugs … people who have Krugerrands in their dressing room drawer”, Steel spoke of gold’s portfolio insurance benefits and “the diversification argument is the most powerful … it is an insurance policy”.

See the full article on Bloomberg here

Gold and Silver Bullion – News and Commentary

Gold holds gains on weaker dollar, rising stocks cap gains (Zeebiz)

Confidence Among Homebuilders in U.S. Falls From 11-Month High (Bloomberg)

Gold futures notch best settlement in nearly 2 weeks (MarketWatch)

Rising gasoline, rents push U.S. inflation higher in September (Reuters)

UK inflation sees biggest jump in two years (RTE)

Why gold will rise no matter who becomes the next U.S. president (MarketWatch)

Gold regain ground in 2017 but ‘bumpy road’ ahead (Reuters)

The Importance of The Deutsche Bank Silver Fix Lawsuit Settlement (TFMetalsReport)

Saudis, China Dump Treasuries; Foreign Central Banks Liquidate A Record $346 Billion In US Paper (ZeroHedge)

Long term case for gold remains intact (ZeroHedge)

7RealRisksBlogBanner

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

19 Oct: USD 1,269.75, GBP 1,031.29 & EUR 1,154.97 per ounce
18 Oct: USD 1,261.65, GBP 1,031.15 & EUR 1,145.33 per ounce
17 Oct: USD 1,252.70, GBP 1,029.59 & EUR 1,139.58 per ounce
14 Oct: USD 1,256.15, GBP 1,028.79 & EUR 1,140.08 per ounce
13 Oct: USD 1,258.00, GBP 1,029.93 & EUR 1,141.76 per ounce
12 Oct: USD 1,255.70, GBP 1,024.53 & EUR 1,139.05 per ounce
11 Oct: USD 1,256.40, GBP 1,021.58 & EUR 1,130.76 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

19 Oct: USD 17.69, GBP 14.38 & EUR 16.11 per ounce
18 Oct: USD 17.65, GBP 14.37 & EUR 16.03 per ounce
17 Oct: USD 17.40, GBP 14.30 & EUR 15.83 per ounce
14 Oct: USD 17.47, GBP 14.28 & EUR 15.86 per ounce
13 Oct: USD 17.59, GBP 14.40 & EUR 15.95 per ounce
12 Oct: USD 17.44, GBP 14.23 & EUR 15.83 per ounce
11 Oct: USD 17.48, GBP 14.26 & EUR 15.78 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– Euro “Will Collapse” As Is “House of Cards” Warns Architect of Euro
– Property Bubble In Ireland Developing Again
– “Gold Is A Great Hedge Against Politicians” – Goldman
– Sell Gold Now – Time To Liquidate Gold ETF, Pooled and Digital Gold
– Gold In GBP Up 43% YTD – “Massive Twin Deficits” To Impact UK Assets
– Ron Paul Says “Gold Going Up” Whether Trump Or Clinton Elected
– Gold Trading COT Report “Means Lower – Then Much Higher – Prices Coming”
– Currency Shock Sees Sterling Gold Surges 5% In One Minute “Flash Crash”
– Top Gold Forecaster: “As Quickly As Gold Fell” May “Rally Back” on Global Risks
– Gold Buying ‘Opportunity’ After Surprise 3.4% Drop
– Deutsche Bank “Is Probably Insolvent”
– GBP Gold Rises 1.3% as Sterling Slumps On ‘Hard Brexit’ Concerns, Up 36% YTD
– Why Krugman, Roubini, Rogoff And Buffett Hate Gold

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

END

 

Silver eagle demand (as well as gold eagle demand return to extremely high levels in October as the world economy shakes:

(courtesy SRSRocco/ Steve St Angelo)

Silver Eagle Demand Returns With A Vengeance As Political & Economic Turmoil Increases

by on October 18, 2016

U.S. Mint Silver Eagle sales surged in the first half of October due to increased turmoil in the political system and economic markets.  Silver Eagle sales were strong in the first five months of the year, but weakened in the summer due to several factors.

One factor was the fall-off in demand by the Authorized Dealers (wholesalers) who had continued to purchase record Silver Eagles in the first part of 2016, even though retail investor demand had softened..  The other factor was a weakening of investor demand as the contagion from the U.K exit of the European Union subsided in the summer.

Regardless, U.S. Mint Silver Eagle sales came back with a vengeance in the first half of October, reaching 2,925,000 according to their most recent update today (Oct 18th).  If we look at the chart below, we can see how much demand has increased compared the previous three months:

us-silver-eagle-sales-july-oct-est-2016

Silver Eagle sales as of October 18th are 75% higher than total sales for September of 1,675,000.   Furthermore, they have already surpassed June’s sales of 2,837,000.  If Silver Eagle sales continue to remain strong for the remainder of the month, I estimate that at least 4,000,000 will be sold.

In addition, Gold Eagle sales are also much stronger in October.  Even though Gold Eagle sales of 84,000 oz have not yet surpassed the total of 94,000 oz in September, we still have nearly two more weeks remaining in October.

us-mint-gold-eagle-sales-jul-oct18-2016

Also, if Gold Eagle sales remain strong for the next two weeks, they could reach 130,000 for the month.  Not only is this much higher than September’s sales, it would be the highest monthly sales for the year…. even beating January’s record of 124,000 oz.

I believe investors are buying more Gold & Silver Eagles due to the continued disintegration of the financial and economic markets and the “Political Circus” called the U.S. Presidential Race.  There has never been a more bizarre U.S. Presidential Campaign than the one we are witnessing today.

And then we had this headline from Zerohedge today, Saudis, China Dump Treasuries; Foreign Central Banks Liquidate A Record $346 Billion In US Paper.  I imagine this is only the beginning, as the situation in the United States continues to unravel after the election… regardless of who is elected.

Precious metals investors need to understand just how much Silver Eagle demand increased after the collapse of the U.S. Investment Banking and Housing Market in 2008.  As the Fed pumped massive amounts of liquidity via its QE policy (Quantitative Easing = Money Printing) into the U.S. markets, Silver Eagles sales have reached a staggering 325 million since 2008 (2008-2016 ytd):

total-us-gold-silver-eagle-sales-1986-2016ytd

While total cumulative Silver Eagle sales are 483 million oz (Moz) since the U.S. Mint started the program in 1986, investors purchased a stunning 325 Moz since 2008. Thus, Silver Eagle demand for the past nine years accounts for 67% of total sales since 1986.

Looking at it a different way, investors purchased 325 Moz of Silver Eagles from 2008-2016, versus 158 million oz from 1986-2007.

When the markets finally crack in the future, investors who have purchased physical gold and silver will be holding onto the best quality “Stores of Wealth” providing much better options that those stuck with most Stocks, Bonds and Real Estate.

 

end

 

As we pointed out to you last week, premiums are now surfacing in India for the first time in 9 months.  This is in spite  of a 10% tax and excise duties:

 

(courtesy Reuters)

 

Reuters

India gold trades at premium for first time in 9 months – dealersGold prices in India swung to a premium for the first time in nine months on Wednesday as jewellers and dealers in the world’s No.2 consumer of the metal ramped up purchases ahead of major festivals.

Dealers were charging up to $2 an ounce over official domestic prices, the first time premiums have been seen since mid-January, said Bachhraj Bamalwa, director at the All India Gems and Jewellery Trade Federation.

Gold importers have traditionally charged premiums to mitigate risks they take due to currency and price fluctuations.

But the precious metal had been trading at a discount for most of this year due to weaker-than-usual demand and a rise in smuggling. Discounts hit a record high of $100 an ounce in July.

“In the last 10 days, demand has improved due to festivals. The correction in prices is helping to attract buyers,” said Bamalwa.

Gold prices in India have fallen over 8 percent since hitting a peak of 32,455 rupees ($485) per 10 grams in July, the highest level in nearly three years.

Demand for gold usually strengthens in the final quarter as India gears up for the wedding season as well as festivals such as Diwali and Dussehra, when buying the precious metal is considered auspicious.

($1 = 66.6950 Indian rupees)

-END-

 

Chris Powell questions why the Wall Street Journal must question central banking!

(courtesy Chris Powell/GATA)

Dear Wall Street Journal: You don’t have to be a Nazi to question central banking

Section:

Tuesday, October 18, 2016

Editor, The Wall Street Journal
1211 Avenue of the Americas
New York, N.Y. 10036

Dear Editor:

Before your Bret Stephens again casually attributes anti-Semitism to complaints about central banking, as he did in his October 18 commentary, “The Plot Against America” —

http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-plot-against-america-1476745874

— he should try attending the monthly meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee and the Bank for International Settlements, where unelected officials gather secretly to determine what money is worth, to allocate huge amounts of it to favored institutions but not to others, and to plot surreptitious intervention in markets, thereby determining the value of all capital, labor, goods, and services in the world.

The Wall Street Journal itself seems to accept this most undemocratic wielding of immense power as the natural order of things.

But just as the old advertising slogan for rye bread noted that “you don’t have to be Jewish to love Levy’s,” you don’t have to be a Nazi to question central banking. Theoretically, at least, you could even be a journalist, if not at The Wall Street Journal.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
7 Villa Louisa Road
Manchester, Connecticut 06043-7541
USA
CPowell@GATA.org

 

 

END

 

The media is trying to portray Trump’s campaign as anti-semitic, which is furthest from the truth..it is Hillary’s campaign with its closer ties to Iran that must be viewed as dangerous.

 

(courtesy zero hedge)

New York Sun: The alt-Trump?

Section:

From The New York Sun
Tuesday, October 18, 2016

The idea that Donald Trump’s campaign is borderline anti-Semitic is being hauled out this week as we hurtle toward Election Day. No one suggests Mr. Trump himself is hostile to Jews. The idea seems to be that because some of the alt-right groups are kvelling over his criticism of the big international banks and the Federal Reserve, Jews should vote for Hillary Clinton. Never mind that the Democrats have emerged as the party of appeasement in respect of, in Iran, the world’s most anti-Semitic regime.

This all burst into the headlines after Mr. Trump’s speech Thursday at Palm Beach. It was praised on a Web site called the Daily Stormer, which reported that in the speech Mr. Trump “affirmed” that the “the mass media isn’t ‘biased’ in the innocent sense; it’s the lying Jewish mouthpiece of international finance and plutocracy, seeking to protect agendas that make trillions of dollars for a small film of scum at the very top, at the expense of middle- and working-class Americans.”

The Daily Stormer article was being emailed around by some of the most distinguished journalists in the country. So imagine our surprise when we called up on the Web the text (and then the video) of Mr. Trump’s tirade only to discover that neither the Jews, nor Israel, nor Zionism were mentioned in the speech at all. Not once. The only thing that came close was when Mr. Trump attacked the Obama administration for sending $1.7 billion — in cash — to the Iranians. …

… For the remainder of the commentary:

http://www.nysun.com/editorials/the-alt-trump/89760/

END

 

GATA”s main focus has always been on central banks and not bullion banks

(courtesy Chris Powell/GATA)

Central banks, not bullion banks, long have been GATA’s primary target

Section:

7:40p ET Tuesday, October 18, 2016

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

In commentary today (http://www.gata.org/node/16850) Sharps Pixley CEO Ross Norman rebutted your secretary/treasurer’s skepticism about the need for a price benchmarking mechanism in gold like the venerable daily gold price fixings in London, which are operated by a few large investment banks (http://www.gata.org/node/16845).

Maybe your secretary/treasurer should have been clearer from the outset, but it seems to GATA that valid benchmarks could be derived entirely from price and trade volume data at the end of each day, benchmarks that would result from all trading and not the trading of a few banks talking confidentially to each other and to God-only-knows who else.

So why use a benchmark? Well, thousands of companies will refer in their contracts to “the gold price” and it needs to be defined. Many will not actually trade on a particular fix but the financial transaction they are a party to will be linked to it. Hence they need to know that the price is fair and reflects reality.

Take a mining company or a jewellery company. One will sell and the other might buy through a contract with a counterparty at the average of the PM fix for the month plus, say, $1. But they may not be active on each and every fix. Their contracts will refer to “the gold price,” but you have to ask: Which one?

The spot price is no good as they are merely subjective adverts by individual banks (adverts displaying their buying and selling interest and not a “traded at” price) and thus massively open to manipulation — or a closing price that again can be gamed by market participants. (But this is quite similar to the fixings in base metals.)

People have looked at volume-weighted averages and other procedures but most are fallible or can be corrupted. The gold fix in our opinion is exceptionally difficult to game — and if you were so minded, then there are far easier ways to do so such as simply front-running a trade in the spot market. Who would ever know?

In short, the real market (that’s to say producers and consumers) needs a fair, reliable, and representative price against which to honor its contracts and commitments. I happen to think that the gold market has done a pretty good job in evolving and devising the best foolproof way of deriving an objective price for those who may not actually be trading that particular day but will be affected by the outcome.

Any other prices are simply subjective and therefore invalid or not representative.

2) Deutsche Bank and the other banks. I think they are a red herring. It is tempting to imagine that banks hold a central role in determining price outcomes when in fact they are just a conduit and merely reflect what is going on around them. They are far more clueless than you think. If the Basle III banking regulatory framework goes ahead as anticipated, then most will become history anyway by 2018 as far as commodities trading goes.

It is proposed that holdings in gold will be valued at a mere 15 percent for capital adequacy purposes and the costs of funding or holding positions will skyrocket, which will drive most banks out of the market if regulation and compliance have not already done so by then. They are all already in significant retreat, and for a good many houses bullion is now simply tacked onto the side of foreign-exchange trading and managed by a currency trader who knows little about the market — and cares even less.

In short, the banks are a much-diminished influence and getting less significant, with a few exceptions.

Few people will shed a tear as the commodities traders at the banks retreat, but do ask yourself what you think might replace them, like unregulated entities, and how well they will treat you. Be careful what you wish for.

The news that Deutsche Bank has “settled” by paying a $38 million fine confirms my point. They “settled” without admitting guilt or being found guilty; they just wanted out. This is why the fine is so small.

Now it may still transpire at some point that there have been some minor irregularities around the London gold fix and, again, it’s not for me to defend the people and institutions. I am defending only the London fix as the best solution there is, and if you wanted to cheat, it’s the worst place to do so.

3) Central banks. I think it is a popular myth to blame the investment banks and commodity traders for all evils. They are actually just guys who play within the framework set by the regulators. No malice aforethought. As said, they are losing relevance.

However, there is an invisible hand at play and it sets the rules of the game and often attempts to pre-determine its outcome — that is the official sector. Once benign custodians of the reserve assets of countries, official sectors here are the architects of the economy and masters of its narrative. I fear that we are moving toward a centrally planned and managed economy of the sort once mocked in the former Soviet Union.

If GATA’s gripe was with these institutions rather than the conduit through which they trade, I think your efforts would resonate with many more market observers and participants.

END

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight

 
 

:

1 Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/yuan UP to 6.7367( REVALUATION NORTHBOUND  SLIGHTLY /CHINA UNHAPPY TODAY CONCERNING USA DOLLAR RISE/MORE $ USA DOLLARS LEAVE CHINA/OFFSHORE YUAN NARROWS TO 6.7417 / Shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 0.844 POINTS OR 0.03%   / HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 89.42 POINTS OR 0.38%

2 Nikkei closed UP 35.30 OR 0.21%   /USA: YEN FALLS TO 103.35

3. Europe stocks opened ALL IN THE RED ( /USA dollar index DOWN to 97.83/Euro UP to 1.0978

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: LOWERS TO    -.057%/     !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 103.96/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY.

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI::  50.91  and Brent:52.33

3f Gold UP /Yen DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS  AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP for Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10 yr bund FALLS QUITE A BIT to +024%   

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES to  : 8.44%   

3k Gold at $1270.40/silver $17.77(7:45 am est)   SILVER FINAL RESISTANCE AT $18.50 WILL BE DEFENDED 

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 27/100 in  roubles/dollar) 62.85-

3m oil into the 50 dollar handle for WTI and 52 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation  (already upon us). This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/China forced to do QE!! as it lowers its yuan value to the dollar/GOT a  REVALUATION UPWARD from POBC.

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 103.35 DESTROYING WHATEVER IS LEFT OF OUR YEN CARRY TRADERS

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning .9891 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0858 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLS to  +.024%

/German 9+ year rate BASICALLY  negative%!!!

3s The Greece ELA NOW a 71.4 billion euros,AND NOW THE ECB WILL ACCEPT GREEK BONDS (WHAT A DISASTER)

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”.  Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 1.749% early this morning. Thirty year rate  at 2.509% /POLICY ERROR)

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)

HELICOPTER MONEY STILL ON THE TABLE FOR THE FUTURE/JAPANESE STIMULUS PLAN DISAPPOINTS

US Futures, Global Stocks Mixed After Lackluster Chinese Economic Data; Oil Rises Over $51

US futures were little changed, with European shares lower, and Asian stocks higher as caution returned after last night’s Chinese economic data did little to clear up how the world’s second largest economy is performing, and provided few positives for investors ahead of the third and final U.S. presidential debate; imminent announcements from both the ECB and the Fed also will keep traders on their toes today.

All eyes, however, will be on the third U.S. presidential debate on Wednesday night in Las Vegas, which comes as opinion polls show a substantial lead for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump.

The U.S. dollar fell from a seven-month peak on Wednesday, combining with signs of an easing supply glut to help lift oil prices back towards a one-year high. The weaker dollar boosts oil, which gained over 1 percent on Wednesday, pushing WTI over $51. The bounce in commodity prices has helped bolster inflation expectations in the euro zone, nudging the bloc’s bond yields further away from the record lows struck after Brexit.

The overnight mood was set by a relatively uneventful set of Chinese economic reports, which saw a GDP and Retail sales meet expectations, while Industrial Production missed modestly.

  • Chinese GDP SA (Sep) Q/Q 1.80% vs. Exp. 1.80% (Prey. 1.80%); Chinese GDP (Q3) Y/Y 6.70% vs. Exp. 6.70% (Prey. 6.70%).
  • Chinese Industrial Production (Sep) Y/Y 6.10% vs. Exp. 6.40% (Prey. 6.30%); Chinese Industrial Production YTD (Sep) Y/Y 6.00% vs. Exp. 6.10% (Prey. 6.00%).
  • Chinese Retail Sales (Sep) Y/Y 10.70% vs. Exp. 10.70% (Prey. 10.60%): 8-month high. Chinese Retail Sales YTD (Sep) Y/Y 10.40% vs. Exp. 10.30% (Prey. 10.30%).

The MSCI All Country World Index of shares was umchanged after rallying in the last session by the most in almost a month. Hong Kong stocks swung to a loss, while Chinese equities and the Australian dollar erased gains after an unexpected slowdown in China’s industrial output cast a cloud over gross domestic product figures that matched estimates. The Dollar remained near a one-week low following U.S. inflation data that damped expectations for interest-rate hikes. Crude oil rose after data showed American supplies fell, while aluminum dropped.

“China won’t do anything new in terms of policy because the economy isn’t sliding,” said Ben Kwong, a Hong Kong-based director at KGI Asia Ltd. “Under these conditions, the market doesn’t really have a direction. It needs to wait for news on U.S. rates.”

European stocks retreated as investors assessed Chinese data for indications of the health of the global economy, while awaiting updates from the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index was down 0.2 percent as of 8:16 a.m. London time, after surging 1.5 percent on Tuesday. ASML Holding NV jumped by the most in eight months after Europe’s largest semiconductor-equipment maker forecast profitability above analysts’ estimates for the final three months of the year.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.3 percent, having been up 0.4 percent prior to the China data. The Hang Seng Index declined 0.5 percent and the Shanghai Composite Index was little changed. China’s gross domestic product expanded 6.7 percent in the last quarter from a year earlier, the third straight period at that pace. Industrial output rose 6.1 percent, less than the median forecast for a 6.4 percent gain.

S&P 500 futures slipped were unchanged after the underlying gauge added 0.6 percent on Tuesday. While only 57 of the benchmark’s members have reported results so far, about 80 percent announced earnings that exceeded analysts’ estimates, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The yield on US 10Y Treasuries was little changed at 1.74%. It fell three basis points on Tuesday as core inflation, which excludes energy and food costs, came in weaker than economists estimated. The probability of the Fed hiking interest rates this year slipped by three percentage points in the last session to 63 percent, futures prices indicate. Australia’s 10-year bonds gained for the first time in four days, pushing their yield four basis points lower to 2.30 percent. The rate on similar-maturity U.K. notes increased by two basis points to 1.10 percent.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down less than 0.1% to 2131
  • Stoxx 600 down 0.2% to 342
  • FTSE 100 down 0.1% to 6992
  • DAX down 0.2% to 10611
  • German 10Yr yield down 1bp to 0.02%
  • Italian 10Yr yield down 2bps to 1.37%
  • Spanish 10Yr yield down less than 1bp to 1.09%
  • S&P GSCI Index up 0.6% to 377.9
  • MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.4% to 140
  • Nikkei 225 up 0.2% to 16999
  • Hang Seng down 0.4% to 23305
  • Shanghai Composite up less than 0.1% to 3085
  • S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 5435
  • US 10-yr yield up less than 1bp to 1.74%
  • Dollar Index down 0.2% to 97.7
  • WTI Crude futures up 1.4% to $51.01
  • Brent Futures up 1.4% to $52.42
  • Gold spot up 0.7% to $1,271
  • Silver spot up 0.6% to $17.72

Top Global Headlines

  • Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton face off in final presidential debate at University of Nevada in Las Vegas
  • China Life Invests in $2b of Starwood Capital Hotels: Insurer, other companies buy stake in portfolio of 280 hotels
  • Saudi Arabia Says Many Nations Will Join OPEC Output Cuts: Producers will start with output freeze, maybe a small cut
  • Airlines Would Provide Refunds for Late Bags Under U.S. Plan: U.S. announces additional consumer protections for passengers
  • For Wells Fargo, Angry Questions About Profiling Latinos: Employees step forward after scandal over bogus accounts
  • Imperva Sale Process Said to Be on Hold as It Seeks Better Price: Potential suitors wait to see if the company’s growth can improve enough to justify a higher price
  • Staples Turns to Licensing to Push Brand Beyond Office Supplies: First product is online service for managing records
  • Clinton Has 9-Point Lead as Comeback Obstacles Loom for Trump: Bloomberg Politics survey taken after leaked video
  • Salesforce M&A Draft Document Included Adobe, ServiceNow: WSJ

Looking at regional markets, we start in Asia, where stocks traded mostly higher following the positive lead from the US although gains were capped as participants digested a slew of tier-1 Chinese data including GDP, Industrial Production and Retail Sales. ASX 200 (+0.4%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.2%) traded modestly higher as oil names benefitted from advances in WTI after an unexpected drawdown in API crude inventories, while consumer discretionary outperformed in Australia on M&A news flow regarding an AUD 11bIn merger between Tabcorp and Tatts Group. Chinese markets were mixed with Shanghai Comp. flat, while Hang Seng (-0.4%) lagged after mixed data in which GDP printed in line with estimates and Retail Sales posted an 8-month high, however Industrial Production fell short of estimates and several HK firms issued profit warnings. 10-yr JGBs were flat despite mild gains seen in Nikkei 225, as the BoJ were also in the market to the tune of JPY 1.12tIn in 1yr-25yr-F government debt.

For those who missed China’s economic data, here is a quick summary:

  • Chinese GDP SA (Sep) Q/Q 1.80% vs. Exp. 1.80% (Prey. 1.80%); Chinese GDP (Q3) Y/Y 6.70% vs. Exp. 6.70% (Prey. 6.70%).
  • Chinese Industrial Production (Sep) Y/Y 6.10% vs. Exp. 6.40% (Prey. 6.30%); Chinese Industrial Production YTD (Sep) Y/Y 6.00% vs. Exp. 6.10% (Prey. 6.00%).
  • Chinese Retail Sales (Sep) Y/Y 10.70% vs. Exp. 10.70% (Prey. 10.60%): 8-month high. Chinese Retail Sales YTD (Sep) Y/Y 10.40% vs. Exp. 10.30% (Prey. 10.30%).
  • China National Bureau of Statistics said the economy is better than expected, although still faces uncertainty. The stats bureau also stated that employment is better than expected and that China is to ensure it will achieve its annual growth target.

Top Asia News

  • Hedge Fund Startups Plummet in Asia Amid Low Returns, High Fees
  • Standard Chartered Moving Past India Woes With Essar Payment
  • Mitsubishi Motors Shares Surge on Report Ghosn to Be Chairman
  • Minsheng Bank Said to Explore Setting Up Bad-Loan Asset Manager
  • Super Typhoon Threatens Philippines, May Also Hit Hong Kong
  • ‘Quick Learner’ Jokowi Building Momentum After Slow Start

In Europe, equities (EuroStoxx -0.2%) are trading softer this morning after data from China failed to inspire gains. Chinese GDP came inline with expectations but the weak industrial production number seems to have dampened sentiment across markets. In terms of a sectors, Industrials are underperforming after FTSE listed Travis Perkins opened lower by 5.6% after announcing jobs cuts and store closures citing uncertain trading conditions. Bunds opened relatively flat, although we have seen some outperformance in the long end of the yield curve ahead of upcoming supply, which was eventually absorbed with a solid b/c of 1.7. Furthermore, participants may also be sitting on the sidelines ahead of the ECB rate decision where we could see an extension of its bond buying program which was due to finish in March 2017.

Top European News

  • U.K. Labor Market Slows as Squeeze on Household Incomes Begins: Real incomes rise at the slowest rate since early 2015. Employment growth slows to 106,000 in quarter through August
  • ASML Forecasts Higher Profit Margins, Says EUV Sales Advance: Chip-equipment maker sees gross margins up to 48% of sales. Customers order three of its latest extreme ultraviolet gear
  • Monte Paschi Jumps as Board Presses Ahead With Business Plan: Lender’s board set to approve new business plan on Oct. 24. Bank continues with recapitalization, disposals of bad loans
  • Apple Supplier Laird Plunges on ‘Brutal’ Price Competition: Expected pick-up in smartphone-related orders later than usual. Parts maker highlights increased margin pressure due to prices
  • Reckitt, Travis Perkins Drops After Earnings Drag Down FTSE 100: British equities fell for the second time this week amid disappointing earnings results

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed after losing 0.5 percent over the last two days. The measure advanced over the last two weeks as speculation the Fed was getting closer to a rate hike prompted hedge funds and money managers to boost bullish bets on the greenback. The pound weakened 0.2 percent versus the dollar. The U.K.’s departure from the European Union could lead to a 4.5 percent drop in gross domestic product by 2030, the Guardian newspaper reported, citing an average of estimates that was included in a paper circulated at a Brexit cabinet committee meeting. Australia’s dollar was steady, after earlier strengthening as much as 0.3 percent. New Zealand’s currency was up 0.1 percent, having recorded a gain of 0.6 percent in the run-up to the Chinese data. Both countries count China as their biggest export market. “If the Aussie and Kiwi are looking for fresh fuel, they didn’t find it in the China data,” said Sean Callow, a senior strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in Sydney.

In commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 1.3 percent, rising over $51.00 a barrel in New York. U.S. oil stockpiles dropped by 3.8 million barrels last week, API reported yesterday, on expectations of an inventory build. Oil has risen about 14 percent since OPEC reached a deal to manage supply last month. Aluminum declined 0.7 percent, after earlier rallying as much as 0.8 percent. China, which accounts for more than half of world output, reported Wednesday that its production surged to a 15-month high in September as new and idled plants were fired up. “The smelters are coming back in a rush now, so that’s a concern,” said Paul Adkins, managing director of aluminum consultancy AZ China Ltd. “For the rest of this year, two million tons of annual capacity is guaranteed to come in and guaranteed not to exit.” That’s “going to put a lot of pressure on prices when we get to November or December onwards,” he said. Rubber futures in Japan fell 3.4 percent, the most in a month. Global production is increasing and China’s economic data also weighed on sentiment, according to Gu Jiong, an analyst at Yutaka Shoji, a commodity broker in Tokyo.

Looking at the day ahead, the focus will be on the housing market with the release of the September housing starts and building permits data. Both are expected to have rebounded last month. The Fed will release its latest Beige Book this evening. Away from the data the Fed’s Williams is scheduled to speak, followed by Kaplan. Earnings wise Morgan Stanley (prior to the open), eBay and American Express (both after the close) are among the 25 S&P 500 companies reporting today. Of course the other big focus is the third and final US Presidential debate at 2am BST tomorrow morning (or 9pm ET tonight).

* * *

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

We’re straight to China this morning where the latest GDP data is in. There have been few surprises however with Q3 GDP printing bang in line with the market at 6.7% yoy for the quarter. Remarkably that follows identical 6.7% readings for both Q1 and Q2 this year too and puts the economy on track to meet the government’s full year target of at least 6.5% growth. Released alongside the GDP data were the September activity indicators. Both retail sales (+10.7% yoy from +10.6%) and fixed asset investment (+8.2% yoy from +8.1%) rose one-tenth from the prior month and matched the consensus estimates, however the one negative from this morning’s data was industrial production (+6.1% yoy vs. +6.4% expected) which declined two-tenths unexpectedly last month.

Markets have been fairly muted in response to the data. In China the CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp are +0.05% and +0.16% respectively which isn’t too different to where the bourses were prior to the release suggesting that there’s little change in policy expectation from the PBoC. Elsewhere the Nikkei is +0.14%, Hang Seng -0.12%, ASX +0.39% and Kospi +0.33%. The Aussie Dollar is flat and has pared earlier gains while US equity index futures are modestly higher.

So it’s been a pretty busy last 24 hours for important data. Yesterday we got the double dose of inflation numbers from both the UK and US which were interesting. In the UK we learned that headline CPI rose +0.2% mom in September and a bit more than expected (+0.1% expected), helping the YoY rate to rise to +1.0% from +0.6% which is the highest since November 2014. Sterling weakened -1.26% in September but is down another -5.00% in October so it’s still early days to assess the full impact of the FX pass through which might appear more in the data next year. The core reading also increased two-tenths and a bit more than expected to +1.5% yoy (vs. +1.4% expected). Sterling outperformed following the data sending the Pound up +0.94% to $1.2298 for its best day since September 6th while 10y Gilt yields rallied 4.3bps to close at 1.078%, outperforming the wider market. The Pound was mostly boosted by softening Brexit concerns following comments from James Eadie, a UK government lawyer. He suggested that the Brexit process was ‘very likely’ to be subject to ratification process in parliament following a court hearing yesterday. According to the BBC, the vote would take place after negotiations have taken place and Article 50 already triggered. By then it will probably be too late for Parliament to have much influence but perhaps markets felt that it would ensure that the government negotiated a less hardline Brexit given the scrutiny of MPs.

Meanwhile, inflation in the US was a little bit more underwhelming. Headline CPI rose +0.3% mom in September as expected however the core (+0.1% mom vs. +0.2% expected) missed with the YoY core rate dipping one-tenth to +2.2% as a result. The YoY headline rate did rise to +1.5% from +1.1%. Our US economists made some interesting observations yesterday and noted that the categories that have been underpinning the core CPI have been nondiscretionary sectors such as housing rents and medical care. This is partly the result of a near double-digit surge in prescription drug prices over the last few months. In their view, surging medical care inflation is not necessarily indicative of robust underlying consumer demand. Demographics, particularly the aging of the baby boomers, are exerting upward pressure on demand for healthcare. For example, over the two years ending in Q2, healthcare services and pharmaceuticals spending have accounted for 33% of the improvement in inflation-adjusted personal consumption expenditures. This is usually only the case during a recession, when nondiscretionary spending is curtailed. Two sectors within the core CPI that are more discretionary, apparel and recreation costs, are not showing nearly as much inflationary pressure. In point of fact, the year-over-year changes of these series, which in September were -0.1% and +0.8%, respectively, are running well below that of the overall core CPI (+2.2%).

The end result in markets was for Treasury yields to track lower. The benchmark 10y yield fell 2.8bps to close at 1.739% having touched 1.786% intraday, while 30y yields ended close to 2bps lower. The Greenback pared early declines to finish more or less unchanged while it was a broadly stronger day for risk assets with corporate earnings also well in focus. In Europe the Stoxx 600 initially closed up +1.50% with financials driving the gains, before the S&P 500 finished the day +0.62% making it nine sessions in a row now that the index has alternated gains and losses day to day. The healthcare sector was at the forefront of gains following a decent earnings report from UnitedHealth while the Banks were under the spotlight again following Goldman Sachs’ Q3 results. As has been the theme so far in the sector, Goldman reported beats at both the revenue and earnings lines with revenues from FICC jumping +49% yoy and much more than expected by the market. While the consensus EPS estimate of $3.88 was more or less the lowest in the last twelve months for the quarter, the reported number of $4.88 was still well ahead of the highest ($4.57) consensus forecast in that time, unlike what we saw with Citi and JP Morgan.

Elsewhere, credit markets were also slightly stronger yesterday with CDX IG and the iTraxx Main both finishing 1bp tighter. Energy credits also got a boost after WTI bounced back +0.70% to close just above $50/bbl. It’s up another +1% this morning after the American Petroleum Institute reported that inventories dropped by 3.8m barrels last week.

Speaking of issuance, it was hard to ignore Professor Otmar Issing’s comments from earlier this week. According to the Telegraph, the first chief economist of the ECB warned that the ‘decline in the quality of eligible collateral is a grave problem’ and that ‘the ECB is now buying corporate bonds that are close to junk and the haircuts can barely deal with a one notch credit downgrade’. He went on to say that the ‘reputational risk of such actions by a central bank would have been unthinkable in the past’. He also warned that the ECB is on a ‘slippery slope’, has ‘crossed the Rubicon’ and ‘realistically it will be a case of muddling through, struggling from one crisis to the next’. He summed this up by saying that ‘one day, the house of cards of will collapse’ when asked about the future of the ECB and the euro. That’s one to ponder over your morning coffee.

Staying with existential European matters, with Italy’s constitutional referendum looming it was interesting to see the latest poll yesterday conducted by IPR Marketing for RAI’s Porta a Porta. The poll showed that 48.5% of Italian voters would vote ‘Yes’ in the referendum versus 51.5% for a rejection. That put the ‘Yes’ voters up 2.5pts versus the previous month according to the survey although the takeaway for us is just how to close voting is. While the number of undecided voters declined (17% versus 25% previously) the proportion is still relatively high so it’ll be worth keeping an eye on future polls in the run up.

Before we look at today’s calendar, in their report this morning, our European equity strategists argue that the most important question for markets right now is whether we are at the cusp of a paradigm shift from disinflation to reflation. There is some evidence to support this notion: higher commodity prices, the recent strengthening in global growth momentum, some upside surprises to inflation and the hope for a hand-over from monetary to fiscal stimulus. However, our strategists argue that the current state of low growth, low inflation and low bond yields is nonetheless likely to persist for a while longer, given that the oil price seems to have overshot fundamentals. They also see downside risks for US and Chinese growth, which is set to weigh on inflation. Lastly, they highlight that fiscal stimulus has a track record of only being employed in reaction to macro stress. As a consequence, our strategists remain cautious on European equities as well as the cyclical and financial sectors that would benefit in a reflationary environment.

Looking at the day ahead, this morning we’re kicking off in the UK again where we’ll get the August and September employment data which includes the ILO unemployment rate (expected to hold steady at 4.9%), average weekly earnings and claimant count prints. The focus across the pond this afternoon is on the housing market with the release of the September housing starts and building permits data. Both are expected to have rebounded last month. The Fed will release its latest Beige Book this evening. Away from the data the Fed’s Williams is scheduled to speak this afternoon (1.45pm BST) followed by Kaplan (6.30pm BST) this evening. BoE Chief Economist, Andy Haldane, speaks this evening in London while Chancellor Hammond is due to speak before the Treasury Committee in the afternoon. Earnings wise Morgan Stanley (prior to the open), eBay and American Express (both after the close) are among the 25 S&P 500 companies reporting today. Of course the other big focus is the third and final US Presidential debate at 2am BST tomorrow morning (or 9pm ET tonight).

3.REPORT ON JAPAN  SOUTH KOREA NORTH KOREA AND CHINA

i)Late  TUESDAY night/WEDNESDAY morning: Shanghai closed UP 0.844 POINTS OR 0.03%/ /Hang Sang closed DOWN 89.42 POINTS OR 0.38%. The Nikkei closed UP 35.30 POINTS OR 0.21% Australia’s all ordinaires  CLOSED UP 0.414% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.7367/Oil ROSE to 50.91 dollars per barrel for WTI and 52.33 for Brent. Stocks in Europe: ALL IN THE RED   Offshore yuan trades  6.7417 yuan to the dollar vs 6.7367 for onshore yuan.THE SPREAD BETWEEN ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE NARROWS A BIT  AS MORE USA DOLLARS ATTEMPT TO  LEAVE CHINA’S SHORES

3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA/SOUTHEAST ASIA:

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

none today

c) Report on CHINA

In just one month, China injects another 1/4 trillion dollars of debt (Total Social Financing) to jump start their economy. That is equivalent to 2.5 trillion USA dollars per year or 25% of their entire GDP. However that is not the scary part:  you must also include two other very important debt items:  Government debt, sovereign and local  as well as the huge shadow banking sector: Peer to Peer lending. The total rate of debt expansion is twice the level of GDP

(courtesy zero hedge)

China Injects Economy With A Quarter Trillion In Debt In One Month, But The Full Story Is Much Scarier

Overnight the PBOC reported its debt statistics for the month of September and it will probably not come as a surprise that for yet another month, China flooded its economy with the latest massive new loan injection, while the country’s broadest aggregate measure of new credit, Total Social Financing, again surpassed estimates with the number exceeding a quarter trillion dollars in total new debt, in order to fuel, what Bloomberg dubbed, “the economy’s continued stabilization”, even though the economy is inherently unstable due to the massive stock of debt already present inside China’s financial system.

To summarize, this is what China’s credit creation looked like in September:

  • Aggregate financing was 1.72 trillion yuan, or $255 billion, higher than the median estimate of 1.39 trillion Yuan
  • New yuan loans stood at 1.22 trillion yuan, higher than the median estimate of 1 trillion Yuan
    • Of this, new home mortgage loans rose 205.5b yuan from year ago, Shanghai Securities News reported
    • New home mortgage loans in first three quarters at 3.63t yuan, making up 35.7% of total new loans

Visually, the ongoing surge in TSF is shown below:

The table below shows TSF broken down by component. The notable changes, aside from the surge in plain vanilla Yuan loans, was the latest decline in FX loans, which some suggest is how a modest amount of capital is used to exit the country, as well as the CNY 220 billion slump in Bankers acceptances, which together with entrusted loans, comprise the core funding conduits of China’s shadow banking system.

Also notable is that the broad M2 money supply rose 11.5% from a year earlier, fractionally below the 11.6% estimate but higher than the 11.4% in August, a pace that remains nearly double that of the country’s GDP, which suggests that it takes roughly 2 Yuan in new debt to generate 1 Renminbi in GDP. Meanwhile M1 has stopped growing.

Putting this ongoing debt binge – which as on previous occasions has succeeded in stabilizing the economy, however left it with even less breathing space for the next time the economy needs a debt-funded push – in context, policy makers are switching focus to reining in soaring home price gains that cheap borrowing costs have spurred. As Bloomberg notes, China urgently needs a plan to address a build up of corporate debt that’s manageable but with a window to address it “closing quickly,” according to an International Monetary Fund working paper. As the September data reveals, the only solution Beijing has to the debt problem, is to provide even more of it.

Below are some of the dazed and confused economist takeaways from last night’s data:

  • The government is in a dilemma: if they tighten the real estate sector too much, the economy could turn down sharply; but if they don’t control it, they’ll allow the bubble to expand,” said Shen Jianguang, chief Asia economist at Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd. in Hong Kong. He expects a sharp slowdown in credit expansion in October.
  • It’s more of the same: more yuan lending, more debt, no real increase in M2 growth and a much larger rise in M1 growth,” said Michael Every, head of financial markets research at Rabobank in Hong Kong. “It screams ’Liquidity trap!”
  • “The property frenzy will certainly limit the PBOC’s appetite for further easing,” said Raymond Yeung, chief greater China economist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Hong Kong. “While it is too early to call for tightening, deleveraging is certainly an ongoing theme” in the fourth quarter.
  • “While credit growth remains rapid relative to a couple of years ago, it has been slowing in recent months,” Julian Evans-Pritchard, economist at Capital Economics in Singapore, wrote in an e-mail. “Broader worries about credit risks means further monetary easing is unlikely. It will take time for this more cautious policy stance to impact economic growth.”
  • “Beijing talks about controlling credit but allows the banks to increase loans,” said Andrew Collier, an independent analyst in Hong Kong and former president of Bank of China International USA. “The official message is not the same as the reality. Pressure from the banks for profits, from corporates for loans, and from local governments for revenue from the property sector is driving the Chinese economic bus more than the policy makers in Beijing.”

* * *

Incidentally, the real picture is even worse than shown above.

A quick background on Total Social Financing (TSF), courtesy of Barclays:

In early 2011, the PBoC launched a new data series, total social financing (TSF), as a comprehensive indicator to monitor the economy’s total fundraising. Its development was in response to the rapidly growing shadow banking and direct financing amid increasing financial disintermediation and regulatory arbitrage. As a result of these changes in China’s financial landscape, it was thought that traditional indicators such as bank loans or deposits no longer captured the full picture of financing/investment and money supply/demand.

Over time, TSF developed into a macro control tool, together with broad money (M2). “To maintain a reasonable growth in the money credit and TSF” is now a phrase written in the annual government work report since 2011. In March 2016, the government for the first time set an explicit target for TSF growth of 13%, slightly higher than actual growth of 12.4% in 2015, in addition to its 13% M2 growth target (up from a target of 12% in 2015).

Defined by the PBoC to measure the domestic financial sector’s (non-government) support to the real economy, the TSF statistics include bank loans, corporate bonds, three traditional shadow banking activities, as well as equity financing since its release in 2011(Appendix). The shadow credit includes loans by trust companies, inter-corporate entrusted loans, and undiscounted bankers’ acceptance bills. The TSF by design excluded: 1) government bonds, but has included the local government financing vehicle (LGFV) loans and bonds; and 2) external debt, such as foreign direct investment and other foreign borrowings.

However, as we showed previously even TSF is not sufficient to capture all the nuances of China’s debt. Two core credit items in which the TSF are missing are Government bonds, both central government and local government, and “Non-traditional shadow credit channelled by banks and NBFIs.” To be sure, there is much more to Chinese credit creation, much of it in the “shadow banking sector” as the following graphic shows:

… but if one adds just those two inclusions, the result is a far greater annual increase in the broadest credit aggregate which includes TSF, Government Bonds, LG bonds, and Bank claims on NBFIs (shadow banking), one gets the light blue line shown below.

What happens if one uses these adjusted credit aggregates instead of the widely accepted TSF? Here are some thoughts from Barclays:

From a stock perspective, broad credit is 20-30% higher than what is counted in the official TSF data. Relative to GDP, our five measures put China’s credit-to-GDP ratio currently in a range from 260% to 275% of GDP as of September 2016.

From a growth rate perspective, the speed of credit expansion is alarming. Our methods put the current pace of credit growth in China in a range between 19% and 20%, well above the reported official TSF growth of 12.4% and new loan growth of 13.0% in September.

Using a bottom-up approach, we made ballpark estimations of the size of “shadow credit” based on the above discussions, which reached around CNY63trn as of September 2016. This is calculated by adding the ultimate forms of credit, ie, trust loans (September: CNY5.9trn), entrusted loans (CNY12.5trn), bankers’ acceptances (CNY3.8trn), corporate bonds (CNY17.3trn), and other non-standard credit assets5 (CNY23.5trn).

Frankly, these are mindblowing numbers and yet, Barclays does not think China’s debt bubble is about to burst despite admitting that this pace of debt growth is unsustainable.

As the bank admits, “China’s debt crisis does not appear to be imminent. China’s debt is largely domestically owned. Hence, unless there is bank run or capital flight by local residents, the typical EM-style financial crisis, like the Asia Financial Crisis, is less likely. The heavy state involvement, with the majority of loans coming from state-controlled banks to state-owned enterprises, the strengthening state control and sizable state assets suggest that the Chinese government still has the capacity to manage the pace of NPL recognition and debt restructuring in the banking system.”

But it’s not all good news:On the other hand, the current pace of credit expansion, more than twice the rate of nominal GDP growth, is clearly unsustainable (Figure 13).” It then concludes as follows:

The interconnectedness between the corporate sector and the banks points to systemic risks in the economy, especially as the economy is forecast to slow further.Such perceived “implicit guarantees” by the state have resulted in excessive risk-taking across asset classes (equity, bond and property), across economic agents (corporate, local governments and households), and across financial intermediaries. With rising central government’s contingent liability, the sovereign risks are increasing. Moody’s downgraded its outlook on Chinese government debt to negative from stable in March 2016, questioning China’s surging debt burden and the government’s ability to enact reforms.”

So far the only “reform” the government has enacted has been to mask debt with even more debt, roughly 300% of GDP. However, as banks, rating agencies, the IMF and even the G-20 admit, the days of kicking the can for China are coming to an end. What waits on the other side of that particular journey is not pleasant: either massive social revolt by China’s middle class, as the government renormalizes its economy in the process hiring tens of million of (soon to be angry) workers, or it unleashes the biggest banking crisis the world has every seen: at $35 trillion in total financial assets, China’s banking system is more than double the size of the US. We wish Beijing (and Janet Yellen) the best of luck with their hopes that it will somehow be contained..

end

 

Global markets hardly move as China just manages to meet GDP expectations of 6.7% Here are the other important data points for China this morning!

(courtesy zero hedge)

  • Industrial Production YoY MISS: 6.1% vs +6.3% Exp from +6.3% prior (6.0% to 6.5% range)
  • Retail Sales YoY MEET: +10.7% vs +10.7% Exp from +10.6% prior (10.5% to 11.0% range)
  • Fixed Assets Investments YTD YoY MEET: +8.2% vs +8.2% Exp from +8.1% prior (8.0% to 8.6% range)
  • GDP YoY MEET: +6.7% vs +6.7% Exp from +6.7% prior (6.4% to 6.9% range)

 

Global Markets Shrug As China ‘Manages’ To Meet GDP Expectations

A couple of trillion dollars of freshly created debt and a collapsing currency (which did nothing for the trade balance which was described as “not very solid” by authorities) along with a dead stock market, a bond market at record low yields (unconvinced at any recovery) and a housing bubble and China’s National Statistics Bureau ‘nails it’ with ‘meets’ across the board (albeit Industrial production disappointed).

Yuan is accelerating weaker to 6 year lows… (but it didn’t help trade)

And yet another resurgence in total social financing (aggregate credit) In China…

And the data was a snoozefest:

  • Industrial Production YoY MISS: 6.1% vs +6.3% Exp from +6.3% prior (6.0% to 6.5% range)
  • Retail Sales YoY MEET: +10.7% vs +10.7% Exp from +10.6% prior (10.5% to 11.0% range)
  • Fixed Assets Investments YTD YoY MEET: +8.2% vs +8.2% Exp from +8.1% prior (8.0% to 8.6% range)
  • GDP YoY MEET: +6.7% vs +6.7% Exp from +6.7% prior (6.4% to 6.9% range)

Bloomberg notes that the industrial output gain is weaker than forecast while retail sales are bang in line – confirming the narrative that China’s economy is rebalancing steadily toward consumption from manufacturing.

It seems the surge in credit is not helping…

NBS says in statement that China’s economy still faces uncertainties. Sheng says economic situation generally stable in Jan.-Sept.

China’s economy remained stable in the third quarter, all but ensuring the government’s full-year growth target will be hit and paving the way for a policy switch toward reining in financial risks.

Bloomberg’s Chief Asia Economics Correspondent Enda Curran notes:

These numbers put to bed any talk of a Chinese hard landing in 2016. Anything can happen in the final quarter, of course, but it’s hard to see the narrative shifting too much as we head into a year of political change.

The bigger issue now is whether the authorities have the confidence to take on the really thorny issues around paring back debt and leverage. That very much remains to be seen.

Top three challenges in the coming months: containing the property surge, paring back debt and, let’s not forget, keeping a lid on capital outflows.

If the Fed ever does get round to hiking and the dollar resumes its rally, that will put downward pressure on the yuan and test the resolve of SAFE to defend it.

*  *  *

The reaction to the data – for now – is a rebound weaker in the Yuan (marginal) and a tick or two in USDJPY and US equity futures. Stephen Innes, a Singapore-based senior trader at foreign exchange company OANDA, said:

“There was a collective sigh of relief with the key GDP print coming in on the government target.

As the dust settles with the retail sales print looking rather bouncy, the China economy as a whole appears to be in better shape than some of the pessimistic analysts’ reads heading into the data. Global risk should remain supported.”

end

4 EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Merkel is said to offer no back door concessions to England as the enter discussions on a BREXIT.  The problem for Merkel is that Germany will be the net loser as their exports to England will falter badly especially in the light of the lower pound

(courtesy zero hedge)

Sterling Stumbles On Report Merkel Said To Shut Brexit “Back Door” Channels

Moments ago, sterling reverted to its familiar downward sliding trajectory and took a steep move lower following a Bloomberg report that German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government is “battening down the hatches for coming Brexit talks, instructing officials to avoid any back-door contacts that could hand the U.K. an advantage”, citing people familiar with the discussions.

According to the report, Merkel’s chancellery is receiving U.K. diplomats but refusing to grant U.K. any favors in advance of the official negotiations. It adds that some government ministries are instructed to shun official contacts with U.K. counterparts that could reveal negotiating positions.

German message in private is same as in public: can’t start discussions before U.K. triggers Article 50 exit clause.

Bloomberg adds that Merkel’s core message to U.K. “has been consistent” – full participation in EU single market means accepting EU’s four freedoms: German govt spokesman Steffen Seibert last week.

GBPUSD slumped as much as 1.227 after trading above 1.23 on ongoing speculation about UK negotiations involving “hard brexit.”

END

 

GERMANY

Problems continue with respect to refugees from Africa:

(courtesy zero hedge)

German City Mayor Warns Government Of “Massive Crime Problems…Blacks Are In Charge Of The Town”

END

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Russia is getting ready for war: they are deploying the largest naval force since the cold war.  It is heading for Syria.

(courtesy zero hedge)

Russia Is Deploying The Largest Naval Force Since The Cold War For Syria: NATO Diplomat

Just moments ago we reported that in the latest escalation involving Syria, the Russian aircraft carrier Kuznetsov was now sailing past Norway on its way to Syria, where it is expected to arrive in just under 2 weeks.  As part of the carrier naval group, Russia also deployed an escort of seven other Russian ships, which we dubbed the “most powerful Russian naval task force to sail in northern Europe since 2014” according to Russia’s Nezavisimaya Gazeta daily reports.

It turns out it was more than this and as Reuters reported second ago, citing a NATO diplomat, Russia is in fact deploying the largest naval force since end of Cold War to reinforce its Syria campaign.

  • SENIOR NATO DIPLOMAT SAYS RUSSIA IS DEPLOYING ALL OF NORTHERN FLEET AND PART OF BALTIC FLEET TO REINFORCE SYRIA CAMPAIGN
  • DEPLOYMENT IS RUSSIA’S LARGEST NAVAL DEPLOYMENT SINCE END OF COLD WAR – NATO DIPLOMAT
  • DEPLOYMENT WILL INCREASE NUMBER OF RUSSIAN FIGHTER BOMBERS IN SYRIA, MOSCOW MAY LAUNCH FINAL AIR ASSAULT ON ALEPPO IN TWO WEEKS – NATO DIPLOMAT

While there is little we can add to this that we did not just say in the previous post, we want to remind readers what the east Meditteranean looked like in the summer of 2013, when the first escalation between Russia and the US converted the sea off the Syrian coastline into a parking lot for warships.

In two weeks, it is about to get much busier.

* * *

For those who missed it, here are the highlights from our previous post on the composition of the Russian flotilla:

According to a report by the Norwegian military which released pictures taken by surveillance aircraft, we know that the Kuznetsov accompanied by a fleet of Russian warships, is currently on its way to Syria and is sailing in international waters off the coast of Norway near Trondheim. Photos of the vessels, which include the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov and the Pyotr Velikiy battle cruiser, were taken near Andoya island, in northern Norway on Monday.

As reported by Reuters , a spokesman for the Norwegian military intelligence service said the country’s armed forces frequently releases such footage, while newspaper VG quoted General Morten Haga Lunde, head of the service, as saying the eight ships involved “will probably play a role in the deciding battle for Aleppo”. According to Russia’s TASS state news agency, the aircraft carrier would carry 15 Su-33 and MIG-29K jet fighters and over 10 Ka-52K, Ka-27 and ??-31 helicopters.

The naval group which includes the carrier and its escort of seven other Russian ships, is the most powerful Russian naval task force to sail in northern Europe since 2014, Russia’s Nezavisimaya Gazeta daily reports. The carrier can carry more than 50 aircraft and its weapons systems include Granit anti-ship cruise missiles.

Next in the flotilla, in terms of firepower, is the Russian nuclear-powered battle cruiser Peter the Great.

The Kirov-class cruiser Peter the Great escorts the carrier

As BBC adds, a Norwegian Lockheed P-3 Orion reconnaissance plane, monitoring the force, photographed the ships. MiG-29 Fulcrum jets and combat helicopters were visible on the carrier’s deck.

The other Russian surface ships in the group are: two large anti-submarine warships – the Severomorsk and Vice-Admiral Kulakov – and four support vessels.

Several of the task force ships are shown in this Norwegian phot

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

A good indicator of how good the USA economy is performing:  the Cass freight index takes another dive southbound

(courtesy Mish Shedlock)

 

Cass Freight Index Takes Another Dive Killing August’s “False Hope”

Submitted by Michael Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Heading into the Christmas shopping season, the Cass Freight Index shows shipments sank 0.4% for the month and are down 3.1% from shipments a year ago.

It’s difficult to make a case for a great holiday sales season or robust third quarter GDP, based not only on shipments, but also on many other factors discussed below.

After offering a glimmer of ‘less bad’ hope in August (only down 1.1% YoY and up 0.4% sequentially), the Cass Freight Index shipments data in September disappointed, providing hindsight that August only gave us ‘false hope.’ September data is once again signaling that overall shipment volumes (and pricing) continued to be weak in most modes, with increased levels of volatility as all levels of the supply chain (manufacturing, wholesale, retail) continue to try and work down inventory levels.

Cass Freight Shipment Index

cass-freight-index-2016-10a

Shipments are lower than in 2015, 2014, and 2013.

Cass Freight Expenditures Index

cass-freight-index-2016-10b

Expenditures are lower than in 2015, 2014, and 2013.

Rail Volumes

cass-freight-index-2016-10c

Rail volumes are lower in 2016 than 2015 and 2014.

Rail Volumes vs. US Dollar Index Inverted and Advanced 6 Months

cass-freight-index-2016-10d

Inventory Contribution to GDP

cass-freight-index-2016-10e

Cass Comments

  • Rails have seen persistent weakness, with overall volumes being negative 86 out of the last 87 weeks. Why do rail volumes continue to be weak? We see the strength of the U.S. Dollar driving fewer exports and less domestic manufacturing as the primary driver.
  • We continue to assert that the trucking industry provides one of the more reliable reads on the pulse of the domestic economy, as it gives us clues about the health of both the manufacturing and retail sectors. No matter how it is measured, the data coming out of the trucking industry has been both volatile and uninspiring.
  • Nearly all of us practicing the dismal science of economics began predicting in the Spring of 2015 that as the price of oil and natural gas fell, the consumer would take the increase in disposable income—created by the decreases in the costs of their daily commute and heating and cooling their house—and spend it. Why? Because since the end of World War II, the greatest predictor of consumer spending, expansion or growth, was the expansion or growth of consumer disposable income. But instead of following the playbook, most U.S. consumers have been choosing to pay down debt and increase their savings rate. Simply put, the consumer has not yet picked up where the industrial economy left off.
  • Inventories have now contracted from GPD for five consecutive quarters to the tune of ~3% of GDP. This is the longest stretch outside of a recession since 1956-57 and the largest in magnitude since 1995. We expect de-stocking to continue into Q3 in retail, based on the NRF’s (National Retail Federation’s) Port Tracker survey. We remain concerned about elevated levels of cars on dealer lots, and we acknowledge continued efforts to streamline finished inventory in most machinery sectors. Overall inventory levels remain elevated compared to sales, but with further improvement on many ratios in ‘2H (which we expect), and unless demand takes another step down, we believe the persistent drag of de-stocking should progressively lessen as we enter 2017. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow index now expects inventories to contribute 22 basis points to GDP, down from 90 basis points at the start of the quarter.
  • Talked Themselves Into It: We believe the Federal Reserve should not raise rates again. Unfortunately, if they do so in December, it will only serve to make the U.S. Dollar stronger. Historically, a strong Dollar has produced a serious headwind for freight volumes, first in all things exported, and then in a reduction of things manufactured or assembled domestically.
  • Expecting Flattish 2H: Ex auto industrial production trends did start to flatten out in Q2 (improving to up 0.2% in Q2 from down 1.2% in Q1). We see this largely as a return to more normal seasonal production patterns than anything else. Overall industrial production continues to track between 0 and +1% thanks to the lift from autos and nondurables (goods consumption picked up in Q2 as seen in the GDP data). However, we are concerned that elevated inventories on dealer lots, along with slowing sales, will lead to U.S. auto production growing less than 1% on a YoY basis in Q3. Thus, we are now anticipating ‘2H manufacturing industrial production to be flat YoY, down from our prior hopes of a modest recovery into the up 1+% range.
  • As we have pointed out, the U.S. consumer has been saving and paying down debt with this disposable income for over six quarters. By this holiday season, we expect them to begin to spend at least part of their income. If not, the risk of an overall recession grows. That said, there is a bit of irony in our prediction of possible recession. The longer the consumer saves and pays down debt, the more likely it is that the U.S. falls into a recession. But, the longer the consumer saves and pays down debt, the shorter and more mild the recession will be since there will be less excess to clean up. Stay tuned…

Mish Comments

This mythical GDP build based on inventories keeps sinking in to the sunset. In particular, auto inventories have soared, and autos have been one of the few bright spots in the economy.

The other bright spot has been housing. While not robust, it has been reasonably solid. However, prices home buyers have been able or willing to pay keeps declining.

Thanks to Obamacare, medical premiums have soared. Today’s CPI report (see Bloomberg Cheers Rising Rent and Gas Prices: Parrots vs. Humans) shows additional cause for concern.

Rent, energy, and medical costs are up. This will impact discretionary spending.

Inventory Crisis: Can Parrots Read Charts?

inventory-to-sales-ratio-2016-10a

Bloomberg cited tight management of inventories. My conclusion was parrots cannot read charts.

SupplyChain notes an inventory crisis with retailers caught in a dilemma. Retailers need inventory, but they are not moving it well.

Inventory Management

  1. Warehouse vacancy rates in many major cities sit below 5%
  2. A glut of inventory is building up in across retailers in the US
  3. Retailers turning to direct shipments as a clever way of reducing inventory burdens

For more details, please see Inventory Crisis: Can Parrots Read Charts?

Finally, the November election will leave at least half the country in a sour mood.

All things considered, things are not shaping up well for third quarter GDP and estimates are falling like a rock, as expected in this quarter.

7. OIL ISSUES

WTI rises after another huge inventory drawdown. However production increases.

(courtesy zero hedge)

WTI Crude Spikes After Major Crude Inventory Draw Trumps Production Increase

Oil held gains overnight following API’s surprise crude inventory draw, DOE data surprised even more with amassive 5.247mm draw (2.1mm build exp). Cushing saw the biggest draw in 6 months but we note thatGasoline inventories rose 2.469mm barrels – the biggest build since Feb. Production rose very modestly but hovers around the 8.5mm b/d level.

API

  • Crude -3.8mm (+2.1mm exp)
  • Cushing -1.96mm (-1.4mm exp)
  • Gasoline +929k
  • Distillates -2.3mm

DOE

  • Crude -5.247mm (+2.1mm exp)
  • Cushing -1.635mm (-1.4mm exp) – biggest in 6 months
  • Gasoline +2.469mm – biggest in 8 months
  • Distillates -1.24mm

Following last week’s big build, DOE reports an even bigger draw than API. However the huge swings in Cushing (draw) and Gasoline (build) are notable.

Production rose on the week but is stable around the 8.5mm b/d level still…

Earlier comments from Saudi Arabian energy minister Khalid Al-Falih saying that many nations are willing to join OPEC’s planned production cut helped support the overnight gains from API data, and the DOE draw sent WTI soaring towards $52…

RBOB is fading however on the big build

Charts: Bloomberg

end

8 EMERGING MARKETS

this once prosperous nation with the world’s largest oil reserves has now gone into its death spiral.  Probably within one month or two it will default on its debt and hopefully their misery will end and they can start over but they need to rid themselves of their leader Maduro

(courtesy zero hedge)

From ‘Socialist Utopia’ To ‘Silence Of The Lambs’ – Venezuela’s Overcrowded Prisons Devolve Into Cannibalism

Once a flagship socialist nation, Venezuela has now devolved into complete chaos as declining oil revenue has resulted in economic ruin, massive inflation, food shortages and spikes in violent crime.  The increasing criminal activity has led to massive overcrowding of Venezuelan jails where felons have been forced to live in squalid conditions.

According to the Independent, one such overcrowded facility was Táchira Detention Center where 350 inmates were housed despite the facility’s capacity for only 120 people.  Earlier this month, the adverse living conditions, including insufficient rations for inmates, at the facility resulted in riots that devolved into complete chaos as numerous visitors were taken hostage and 2 inmates were “stabbed, hanged to bleed, and then fed to the detainees.”  The gruesome event was orchestrated by a man named Dorancel Vargas (aka “People Eater) who was jailed in 1999 for cannibalism.

Juan Carlos Herrara told local media his son, Juan Carlos Herrera Jr, was stabbed, hanged, dismembered and then eaten at the Táchira Detention Center.

According to reports, 350 men had been crammed into the detention centre, which has a capacity of 120.

Speaking to reporters on Monday, after a visit to the prison three days after the mutiny had subsided, Mr Herrara said: “One of those who was with him when he was murdered saw everything that happened.

My son and two others were taken by 40 people, stabbed, hanged to bleed, and then Dorancel butchered them to feed all detainees,” referring to the notorious Dorancel “people-eater” Vargas – jailed in 1999 for cannibalism.

“The [inmate] with whom I spoke to told me that he was beaten with a hammer [in order] to force him to eat the remains of the two boys.

“I beg you to give me at least one bone so we can bury him and relieve some of this pain.”

“They cut them up and fed them to several [of the fellow inmates], they made the bones disappear. Dorancel cut the flesh.”

Of course, we have written numerous times recently about the devolving economic crisis in Venezuela that has resulted in severe shortages of food, clean water, electricity, medicines and hospital supplies all of which have resulted in a desperate population which has resorted to the black market and violence for survival.

Below is a good recap of the current situation from a recent post.

* * *

Submitted by Susan Warner via The Gatestone Institute,

For many Venezuelans, by every economic, social and political measure, their nation is unravelling at breakneck speed.

Today, a once comfortable middle-class Venezuelan father is scrambling desperately to find his family’s next meal — sometimes hunting through garbage for salvageable food. The unfortunate 75% majority of Venezuelans already suffering extreme poverty are reportedly verging on starvation.

Darkness is falling on Hugo Chavez’s once-famous “Bolivarian revolution” that some policy experts, only a short time ago, thought would never end.

In a 2007 study on the Chavez years for the Washington, DC-based Center for Economic and Policy Research, Mark Weisbrot and Luis Sandoval wrote:

“[a]t present it does not appear that the current economic expansion is about to end any time in the near future. The gains in poverty reduction, employment, education and health care that have occurred in the last few years are likely to continue along with the expansion.”

While it was not so long ago that many people heralded Venezuela as Latin America’s successful utopian Socialist experiment, something has gone dreadfully wrong as the revolution’s Marxist founder, Hugo Chavez, turned his Chavismo dream into an economic nightmare of unimaginable proportions.

The question of whether Socialism can be an effective economic system was famously raised whenMargaret Thatcher said of the British Labor Party:

“I think they’ve made the biggest financial mess that any government’s ever made in this country for a very long time, and Socialist governments traditionally do make a financial mess. They always run out of other people’s money. It’s quite a characteristic of them. They then start to nationalise everything, and people just do not like more and more nationalisation, and they’re now trying to control everything by other means.”

In short: “The trouble with Socialism is that eventually you run out of other people’s money.”

When President Nicolas Maduro inherited the Venezuelan Socialist “dream”, in April of 2013, just one month after Chavez died, he was facing a mere 53% inflation rate. Today the Venezuelan bolivar isvirtually worthless, and inflation is creeping to 500% with expectations of much more. A recent Washington Post report stated:

” …markets expect Venezuela to default on its debt in the very near future. The country is basically bankrupt. It is not easy for a nation to go bankrupt with the largest oil reserves in the world, but Venezuela has managed it. How? Well, a combination of bad luck and worse policies. The first step was when Hugo Chávez’s socialist government started spending more money on the poor, with everything from two-cent gasoline to free housing. That may all seem like it’s a good idea in general — but only as long as there’s money to spend. And by 2005 or so, Venezuela didn’t have any.”

Chavez had the good fortune to die just before the grim reaper showed up on Venezuela’s doorstep. According to policy specialist Jose Cardenas:

“What began as a war against the ‘squalid’ oligarchy in order to build what he called ’21st-century socialism’ — cheered on as he was by many leftists from abroad — has collapsed into an unprecedented heap of misery and conflict.”

Maduro is doubling down on the failed Chavismo economic and social policies that have contributed to an inflationary crisis not seen since the days of the 1920’s Weimar Republic in Germany, when the cost of a loaf of bread was a wheelbarrow full of cash.

Demonstrations and public cries for food are the unpleasant evidence of a once-prosperous society being torn apart by the very largess that marked its utopian ideals less than a decade ago.

There are dire reports of people waiting in supermarket lines all day, only to discover that expected food deliveries never arrived and the shelves are empty.

In desperation, some middle class families have organized online barter clubs as helpless citizens seek to trade anything for diapers and baby food, powdered milk, medicines, toilet paper and other essentials missing from store shelves or available only on the black market for double and triple already impossibly inflated prices..

There are horrific tales of desperate people slaughtering zoo animals to provide their only meal of the day. Even household pets are targeted as a much-needed source for food. This is a desperate time for a desperate people.

As things continue to worsen, President Maduro, unfortunately, is doubling down on the proven failed policies and philosophies of “Bolivarian Socialism,” while diverting attention away from the crisis —pointing fingers at so-called “enemies” of Venezuela such as the United States, Saudi Arabia and others.

Efforts to convince Maduro to enlist help from outside have failed, according to a report in the Catholic magazine, Crux:

Maduro has refused to accept help from international charitable organizations, including the Vatican-sponsored Caritas Internationalis, which through different affiliates has tried to send medicine and food.

“Denying that there’s a crisis and refusing to let the world send medicine and food is not possible,” said Cardinal Jorge Urosa Savino, archbishop of Caracas.

The prelate believes that Maduro is refusing to accept help in an attempt to hide the “very grave situation of total shortage,” which far from improving, he said, continues to deteriorate.

According to Breitbart:

“The Venezuelan Episcopal Conference, the organization of the nation’s Catholic bishops, issued a scathing statement condemning president Maduro for giving the military full control of the nation’s food supply, accusing him of being at the helm of a devastating “moral crisis” and crippling every aspect of life in Venezuela.”

In what some economists have been calling a “death spiral”, the government’s failed economic policies are at the same time causing and trying to stem a runaway inflation with price-fixing policies which, in turn, are triggering shortages. Maduro is strongly urging businesses and farmers to sell their goods at severe losses, forcing shut-downs when the cost of doing business becomes prohibitive.

According to a recent Bloomberg report, the black market is thriving because goods are unavailable at prices fixed by the government. There are reports of ordinary people quitting inadequate-paying jobs to set up black market operations, hoping to be able to make enough to sustain life.

A dozen eggs was last reported to cost $150, and the International Monetary Fund “predicts that inflation in Venezuela will hit 720% this year. That might be an optimistic assessment, according to some local economic analysts, who expect the rate to reach as high as 1,200%.”

According to a Bloomberg report from April:

“In a tale that highlights the chaos of unbridled inflation, Venezuela is scrambling to print new bills fast enough to keep up with the torrid pace of price increases. Most of the cash, like nearly everything else in the oil-exporting country, is imported. And with hard currency reserves sinking to critically low levels, the central bank is doling out payments so slowly to foreign providers that they are foregoing further business.

“Venezuela, in other words, is now so broke that it may not have enough money to pay for its money.”

In the midst of this galloping cataclysm, there is no shortage of pundits who simplistically assert that the catastrophe is caused solely by the international collapse of oil prices. However, according to Justin Fox at Bloomberg:

“The divergence between Venezuela’s revenue and spending started long before (the 2014) oil-price collapse. When oil prices hit their all-time high in July 2008, government revenue — 40 percent of which comes directly from oil — was already falling. The main problem was Venezuelan oil production, which dropped from 3.3 million barrels a day in 2006 to 2.7 million in 2011. It was still at 2.7 million in 2014, according to the latest BP Statistical Review of World Energy.”

“Venezuela isn’t running out of oil. Its proven reserves have skyrocketed since 2000 asgeologists have learned more about the heavy crude of the Orinoco Belt. But getting at that oil will take a lot of resources and expertise, both things that Venezuela’s state-owned oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA, best known in the U.S. for its Citgo subsidiary), has been lacking in since Chavez initiated a sort of hostile takeover starting in the early 2000s. First he kicked out 18,000 workers and executives, 40 percent of the company’s workforce, after a strike. Then he started demanding control of PDVSA’s joint ventures with foreign oil companies. One could interpret this in the most Chavez-friendly way possible — he was aiming for a more just allocation of his nation’s resources — and still conclude that he made it harder for PDVSA to deliver the necessary tax revenue.”

Cronyism and corruption prevailed under Chavez when oil was selling at almost $200 a barrel — at a time when Venezuela could have put some money away for the inevitable rainy day. But President Hugo Chavez and successor president Maduro, were busy buying votes and consolidating power with free giveaways, according to Michael Klare in The Nation.

Behind the doom and gloom Venezuela’s collapse is the continuing specter of street crime and murder, according to Time.com in a May 2016 report:

“The country’s runaway murder rate is just one of the factors driving opposition to President Nicolas Maduro in a country where shortages of food and basic goods are chronic, inflation is running rampant and the government is jailing political prisoners. But it serves as a bloody illustration of just how close to outright societal collapse Venezuela has come since the end of the 20th century, as gangs, guerrillas and militia defend their turfs and traditional authority structures fall by the wayside.”

Venezuela’s crime rate is one of the highest in the world. Called the world’s most homicidal nation, Venezuela has more than street crime, thuggery and murder. Drug cartels, black marketeers, narcoterrorists, white collar criminals and money launderers are unfortunate hallmarks of the Chavez/Maduro legacy.

The ruin of this once prosperous, oil-rich nation might be a harbinger for other nations, such as the United States, which may be tempted into believing that Socialist giveaway policies actually can provide the promise of a free lunch for longer than the next election cycle. Or might that be all many politicians need or want?

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 am

 

Euro/USA   1.0978 UP .0004/REACTING TO NO DECISION IN JAPAN AND USA + huge Deutsche bank problems 

USA/JAPAN YEN 103.35  down .519(Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/SIGNALS U TURN WITH INCREASED NEGATIVITY IN NIRP/JAPAN OUT OF WEAPONS TO FIGHT ECONOMIC DISASTER/KURODA:  HELICOPTER MONEY  ON THE TABLE AND DECISION ON SEPT 21 DISAPPOINTS WITH STIMULUS/OPERATION REVERSE TWIST

GBP/USA 1.2292 DOWN.0007 (Brexit by March 201/pound clobbered)

USA/CAN 1.3083 DOWN .0025

Early THIS WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 4 basis points, trading now well above the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.0978; Europe is still reacting to Gr Britain BREXIT,deflation, announcements of massive stimulation (QE), a proxy middle east war, and the ramifications of a default at the Austrian Hypo bank, an imminent default of Greece, Glencore, Nysmark and the Ukraine, along with rising peripheral bond yield further stimulation as the EU is moving more into NIRP,  THE USA’S NON tightening by FAILING TO RAISE THEIR INTEREST RATE AND NOW THE HUGE PROBLEMS FACING TOO BIG TO FAIL DEUTSCHE BANK / Last night the Shanghai composite CLOSED UP .844 OR   0.03%   / Hang Sang  CLOSED DOWN 89.42 POINTS OR 0.38%     /AUSTRALIA IS HIGHER BY 0.41% / EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL IN THE RED

We are seeing that the 3 major global carry trades are being unwound. The BIGGY is the first one;

1. the total dollar global short is 9 trillion USA and as such we are now witnessing a sea of red blood on the streets as derivatives blow up with the massive rise in the rise in the dollar against all paper currencies and especially with the fall of the yuan carry trade. The emerging market which house close to 50% of the 9 trillion dollar short is feeling the massive pain as their debt is quite unmanageable.

2, the Nikkei average vs gold carry trade ( NIKKEI blowing up and the yen carry trade HAS BLOWN up/and now NIRP)

3. Short Swiss franc/long assets blew up ( Eastern European housing/Nikkei etc.

These massive carry trades are terribly offside as they are being unwound. It is causing global deflation ( we are at debt saturation already) as the world reacts to lack of demand and a scarcity of debt collateral. Bourses around the globe are reacting in kind to these events as well as the potential for a GREXIT>

The NIKKEI: this WEDNESDAY morning CLOSED UP 35.30 POINTS OR 0.21%

Trading from Europe and Asia:
1. Europe stocks ALL IN THE RED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / : Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 89.42  OR  0.38%  ,Shanghai CLOSED UP 0.844 POINTS OR 0.03%   / Australia BOURSE IN THE GREEN: /Nikkei (Japan)CLOSED IN THE GREEN/  INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: $1269.75

silver:$17.72

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 1.749% !!! PAR in basis points from MONDAY night in basis points and it is trading WELL BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 The 30 yr bond yield  2.509, DOWN 1 IN BASIS POINTS  from TUESDAY night.

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 97.83 DOWN 5 CENTS from TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

END

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And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.20% DOWN 5 in basis point yield from TUESDAY  (does not buy the rally)

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.057% down 7/10 in   basis point yield from TUESDAY

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD:1.11%  UP 1 IN basis point yield from  TUESDAY (this is totally nuts!!/

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.385 UP 1/2   in basis point yield from TUESDAY 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 27 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: +03% DOWN 1/5  IN  BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY

END

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IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/2.00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0965 DOWN .0009 (Euro DOWN 9 basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/

USA/Japan: 103.34 DOWN: 0.515(Yen UP 52 basis points/POLICY ERROR ON BANK OF JAPAN

Great Britain/USA 1.2270 DOWN 0.0029( POUND DOWN 29 basis points

USA/Canada 1.3122 UP 0.0015(Canadian dollar DOWN 15 basis points AS OIL ROSE TO 51.72

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This afternoon, the Euro was DOWN by 9 basis points to trade at 1.0965

The Yen ROSE to 103.34 for a LOSS of 52 basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE  /OPERATION REVERSE TWIST ANNOUNCED SEPT 21.2016

The POUND FELL 29 basis points, trading at 1.2270/

The Canadian dollar FELL by 15 basis points to 1.3122, WITH WTI OIL AT:  $51.72

The USA/Yuan closed at 6.73740 (SENDING DEFLATION AROUND THE WORLD)

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.057%  DOWN 7/10  IN BASIS POINTS / yield/ AND THIS IS BECOMING BOTHERSOME TO THE BANK OF JAPAN

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield:DOWN 1  IN basis points from TUESDAY at 1.743% //trading well below the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic

USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.508 DOWN 1/2  in basis points on the day /*very problematic as all bonds globally rose in yield (lowered in price)

BANKS NEED THE LONGER BOND HIGHER IN YIELD: INSTEAD THE SPREAD LESSENS.

Your closing USA dollar index, 97.95 UP 8 CENTS  ON THE DAY/3 PM 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 2:30 PM EST

London:  CLOSED UP 21.86 POINTS OR 0.31%
German Dax :CLOSED UP 14.13 OR  0.13%
Paris Cac  CLOSED UP 11.39 OR 0.25%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 84.80 OR 0.96%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 77.73 POINTS OR 0.46%

The Dow was UP 40.68 points or 0.22%  4 PM EST

NASDAQ  UP 2.57 points or 0.05%  4 PM EST
WTI Oil price;  51.40 at 4:30 pm; 

Brent Oil: 52.06   4:30 EST

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIAN ROUBLE CROSS:  62.24(ROUBLE UP 29/100 ROUBLES PER DOLLAR FROM THURSDAY)  2:30 EST

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS TO +.03%  FOR THE 10 YR BOND  2:30 EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today

Closing Price for Oil, 5 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 5 PM:$51.45

BRENT: $52.66

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.745%

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.87 par in cents

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.2283 down .0016 or 16 basis pts.

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: +03%

 

END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM

Double VIX Flash-Crash & Oil Spike Sends Stocks Above Key Resistance

As one smart CNBC chap argued “you’ve been paid to optimistic”…

 

But then again “ignorance is bliss”…

 

Stocks rallied today.. because… oil…

 

As WTI Crude surged to a 15-month high today…

 

Just one question… what happens next?

 

Trannies and Small Caps were best as Nasdaq limped along unch hurt by Intel…

 

As “Most Shorted” stocks squeezed higher for the second day…

 

Two notable mini-flash-crashes in VIX today (and a broken market) got the S&P back above its 100DMA (2142)

The Dow also broke above its 100DMA (18,207)

 

The big news in bond land was the large Saudi issuance…

  • *SAUDI ARABIA PRICES $17.5B BOND: 5Y +135, 10Y +165, 30Y +210

But it appears there was little rotation our of Treasuries or rate locks ahead of this…

 

The USD Index managed to eke out a small gain (as AUD and CAD saw yuuge volatility intraday)

 

CAD swung around on oil’s pump and dump and BoC’s comments…

 

Gold and Silver gained despite some USD strength, Copper was flat and Crude pumped-n-dumped…

 

WTI broke above recent highs to 15 month highs but appears to have run stops and faded…

 

Gold rose for the 3rd day in a row (first time in 6 weeks) testing back above its 200DMA ($1272)

 

Charts: Bloomberg

END

 

What a story!! Massive voter fraud exposed by project Veritas Part ii

(courtesy zero hedge)

“Rigging Elections For 50 Years” – Massive Voter Fraud Exposed By Project Veritas Part 2

Update 1:  Just shortly after posting video #2 earlier this afternoon, Project Veritas has claimed its second victim as Bob Creamer has announced he will be “stepping back from my responsibilities working the [Hillary] campaign.”

Ironically, the mainstream media is still refusing to play the Project Veritas videos claiming that their authenticity needs to first be verified.  Perhaps we could suggest that two people being fired from their respective employers is sufficient evidence to suggest that, at least in the minds of the people closest to the situation, the videos are, in fact, legitimate…just a thought.

Below is what we wrote earlier today:

* * *

Yesterday we noted the release of Part 1 of a multi-part video series created by Project Veritas revealing some of the dirty, behind-the-scenes secrets of the democratic party.  Part 1 was dedicated to uncovering plots by democratic operatives to incite violence at Trump rallies, a strategy they referred to as “bird dogging” (we provided a full summary here:  “Undercover Footage Shows Clinton Operatives Admit To Inciting “Anarchy” At Trump Rallies“).

It didn’t take long for yesterday’s video to claim it’s first casualty as Scott Foval, the National Field Director for Americans United for Change, was fired shortly after the video’s release.  Foval’s former employer released the following statement:

“Americans United for Change has always operated according to the highest ethical standards.  Scott Foval is no longer associated with Americans United for Change.

. @woodhouseb It really doesn’t look like @AU4Change“operates according to the highest ethical and legal standards.”@seanhannity

That said, perhaps the more disturbing revelation from the first video was that one agitator, Zulema Rodriguez, who admitted to inciting “violent protests” that forced Trump to cancel a Chicago rally back in March, was paid directly by the Hillary campaign just a few weeks before that event.  In fact, according to data from the Federal Election Commission, Zulema has been collecting fees from a lot of political organizations recently…turns out that picking fights at Republican rallies is a lucrative business…who knew?

FEC Data

And now we have Part II of the series in which O’Keefe reveals how people, like Foval, successfully organize massive voter fraud in key swing states.  Among other things, Foval goes into great details about how fraudulent out-of-state voters are hired on at fake “shell companies” just so they can register to vote and are then paid for their votes through “paychecks” from those same entities.  Foval goes on to detail how the operatives bring people in to different states, using their own personal vehicles or by having shell companies rent vehicles, instead of using busses which would make it easier to prove a conspiracy.

“It’s a very easy thing for Republicans to say, “Well, they’re bussing people in.” Well, you know what? We’ve been bussing people in to deal with you fucking assholes for fifty years and we’re not going to stop now, we’re just going to find a different way to do it.”

“When I do this I think as an investigator first – I used to do the investigations. I think backwards from how they would prosecute, if they could, and then try to build out the method to avoid that.”

Per Planet Free Will, the video also features Bob Creamer, a fraudster who served time for a $2.3mm bank fraud in relation to his operation of “community organizing” groups in the 90s.  Creamer is also the founder of Democracy Partners and husband of Democrat congresswoman Jan Schakowsky. The undercover journalist details a plan to register Hispanic voters illegally having them work as contractors, to which Creamer replies that “there are a couple of organizations that that’s their big trick,” and that “turnout is huge, huge, huge.”

END
Michael Snyder explains why Obama is threatening Russia with Word War iii, right before the election.
a very important commentary
(courtesy Michael Snyder/EconomicCollapse Blog)

Why Is Obama Threatening Russia With World War 3 Right Before The Election?

Submitted by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

It sure seems like an odd time to be provoking a war with Russia.  As I write this, we stand just a little bit more than three weeks away from one of the most pivotal elections in U.S. history, and Barack Obama has chosen this moment to strongly threaten the Russians.  As I wrote about on Friday, Reuters is reporting that Obama is contemplating “direct U.S. military action” against Syrian military targets, and the Russians have already indicated that any assault on Syrian forces would be considered an attack on themselves.  The rapidly deteriorating crisis in Syria has already caused tensions with Russia to rise to the highest level since the end of the Cold War, but now Obama is adding fuel to the fire by publicly considering “an unprecedented cyber covert action against Russia”Apparently Obama believes that Russian hackers are interfering in the election and so he wants payback.  The following comes from an NBC News article entitled “CIA Prepping for Possible Cyber Strike Against Russia“…

The Obama administration is contemplating an unprecedented cyber covert action against Russia in retaliation for alleged Russian interference in the American presidential election, U.S. intelligence officials told NBC News.

Current and former officials with direct knowledge of the situation say the CIA has been asked to deliver options to the White House for a wide-ranging “clandestine” cyber operation designed to harass and “embarrass” the Kremlin leadership.

The sources did not elaborate on the exact measures the CIA was considering, but said the agency had already begun opening cyber doors, selecting targets and making other preparations for an operation.

Somebody should tell Obama that he is not playing a video game.  A cyber attack is considered to be an act of war, and the Russians would inevitably retaliate.  And considering how exceedingly vulnerable our cyber infrastructure is, I don’t know if that is something that we want to invite.

At the end of last week, Vice President Joe Biden also publicly threatened the Russians

On Friday, Vice President Joe Biden met “Meet the Press” host Chuck Todd for an interview that has raised serious concern in Russia.

Without bothering to question the authenticity of the claims, Todd took the allegations of Russian hacking at face value, opening his interview with a loaded question: “Why haven’t we sent a message yet to Putin?”

After a moment of stunned silence, Biden responded, “We’re sending a message. We have the capacity to do it and it will be at the time of our choosing, and under the circumstances that will have the greatest impact.”

When Todd asked if the public will know a message was sent, Biden replied, “Hope not.”

The Russians firmly deny that they had any involvement in the hacking, and so far the Obama administration has not publicly produced any firm evidence that the Russians were behind it.

Perhaps the Obama administration privately has some evidence, but at this point they have not shown that evidence to the American public.

So for Joe Biden to be making these sorts of threats is a very dangerous thing.  The Russians are taking these threats very seriously, and they are preparing to protect their interests

‘The threats directed against Moscow and our state’s leadership are unprecedented because they are voiced at the level of the US vice president.

‘To the backdrop of this aggressive, unpredictable line, we must take measures to protect (our) interests, to hedge risks,’ a Kremlin spokesman said, according to RIA Novosti news agency.

Here in the United States, most people don’t even realize that we could be on the verge of a major conflict with Russia.

But over in Russia things are completely different.  Talk of war is everywhere, and the potential for war is the number one topic in the Russian media right now.  Just check out some of the recent Russian media headlines about the conflict between our two nations…

And one Russian television network recently instructed their viewers to locate the nearest bomb shelterin case a nuclear war between the United States and Russia suddenly erupts…

A terrifying Russian television broadcast explicitly told civilians to find out where their nearest bomb shelter is and repeatedly asked viewers if they were ready for nuclear war.

One apocalyptic broadcast told viewers on Moscow’s state-owned TV channel NTV: “If it should one day happen, every one of you should know where the nearest bomb shelter is. It’s best to find out now.”

I don’t believe that the Russians are crazy to be thinking that a war might be coming.

To me, it almost seems as though Obama wants one.

Could it be possible that a conflict with Russia will be used to alter, change or influence the upcoming election in November?

The truth is that it isn’t going to take much for the shooting to begin.  If Obama orders airstrikes against Syrian forces, the Russians have said that they will shoot back

Ash Carter has threatened Russia with “consequences”. After blowing up the ceasefire, the Pentagon – supported by the Joint Chiefs of Staff — now is peddling “potential strikes” on Syria’s air force to “punish the regime” for what the Pentagon actually did; blow up the ceasefire. One can’t make this stuff up.

Major-General Igor Konashenkov, Russia’s Defense Ministry spokesman, sent a swift message to “our colleagues in Washington”; think twice if you believe you can get away with launching a “shadow” hot war against Russia. Russia will target any stealth/unidentified aircraft attacking Syrian government targets – and they will be shot down.

The only serious question then is whether an out of control Pentagon will force the Russian Air Force – false flag and otherwise — to knock out US Air Force fighter jets, and whether Moscow has the fire power to take out each and every one of them.

I discussed the potential for war with Russia in my latest video.  Hopefully cooler heads will prevail and war with Russia will be put off…

But without a doubt the crisis in Syria is not going to be resolved any time soon because it is one giant mess.  Most people don’t realize that the Syrian civil war has essentially been a proxy war between Sunni Islam and Shia Islam from the very beginning.  Jihadist rebels that are being armed and funded by Saudi Arabia and Turkey are fighting Hezbollah troops that are being armed and funded by Iran.  And now Turkish forces have invaded northern Syria, and this threatens to cause a full-blown war to erupt between Turkey and the Syrian Kurds.  Of course ISIS is right in the middle of everything causing havoc, blowing stuff up and beheading anyone that doesn’t believe in their radical version of Sunni Islam.

It is absolutely insane that the United States and Russia could potentially go to war because of this conflict.  Both sides are determined to show the other how tough they are, and one false move could set off a spiral of events from which they may be no recovery.

The American people very foolishly elected Barack Obama twice, but up until now the consequences have not been quite as dire as many had been projecting.

However, right here at the end of his second term Obama is facing a moment of truth.  If he ends up dragging us into a war with Russia, the American people will ultimately bitterly regret putting him into the White House.

 

 

end

 

A good indicator of how good the USA economy is performing:  the Cass freight index takes another dive southbound

(courtesy Mish Shedlock)

 

Cass Freight Index Takes Another Dive Killing August’s “False Hope”

Submitted by Michael Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Heading into the Christmas shopping season, the Cass Freight Index shows shipments sank 0.4% for the month and are down 3.1% from shipments a year ago.

It’s difficult to make a case for a great holiday sales season or robust third quarter GDP, based not only on shipments, but also on many other factors discussed below.

After offering a glimmer of ‘less bad’ hope in August (only down 1.1% YoY and up 0.4% sequentially), the Cass Freight Index shipments data in September disappointed, providing hindsight that August only gave us ‘false hope.’ September data is once again signaling that overall shipment volumes (and pricing) continued to be weak in most modes, with increased levels of volatility as all levels of the supply chain (manufacturing, wholesale, retail) continue to try and work down inventory levels.

Cass Freight Shipment Index

cass-freight-index-2016-10a

Shipments are lower than in 2015, 2014, and 2013.

Cass Freight Expenditures Index

cass-freight-index-2016-10b

Expenditures are lower than in 2015, 2014, and 2013.

Rail Volumes

cass-freight-index-2016-10c

Rail volumes are lower in 2016 than 2015 and 2014.

Rail Volumes vs. US Dollar Index Inverted and Advanced 6 Months

cass-freight-index-2016-10d

Inventory Contribution to GDP

cass-freight-index-2016-10e

Cass Comments

  • Rails have seen persistent weakness, with overall volumes being negative 86 out of the last 87 weeks. Why do rail volumes continue to be weak? We see the strength of the U.S. Dollar driving fewer exports and less domestic manufacturing as the primary driver.
  • We continue to assert that the trucking industry provides one of the more reliable reads on the pulse of the domestic economy, as it gives us clues about the health of both the manufacturing and retail sectors. No matter how it is measured, the data coming out of the trucking industry has been both volatile and uninspiring.
  • Nearly all of us practicing the dismal science of economics began predicting in the Spring of 2015 that as the price of oil and natural gas fell, the consumer would take the increase in disposable income—created by the decreases in the costs of their daily commute and heating and cooling their house—and spend it. Why? Because since the end of World War II, the greatest predictor of consumer spending, expansion or growth, was the expansion or growth of consumer disposable income. But instead of following the playbook, most U.S. consumers have been choosing to pay down debt and increase their savings rate. Simply put, the consumer has not yet picked up where the industrial economy left off.
  • Inventories have now contracted from GPD for five consecutive quarters to the tune of ~3% of GDP. This is the longest stretch outside of a recession since 1956-57 and the largest in magnitude since 1995. We expect de-stocking to continue into Q3 in retail, based on the NRF’s (National Retail Federation’s) Port Tracker survey. We remain concerned about elevated levels of cars on dealer lots, and we acknowledge continued efforts to streamline finished inventory in most machinery sectors. Overall inventory levels remain elevated compared to sales, but with further improvement on many ratios in ‘2H (which we expect), and unless demand takes another step down, we believe the persistent drag of de-stocking should progressively lessen as we enter 2017. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow index now expects inventories to contribute 22 basis points to GDP, down from 90 basis points at the start of the quarter.
  • Talked Themselves Into It: We believe the Federal Reserve should not raise rates again. Unfortunately, if they do so in December, it will only serve to make the U.S. Dollar stronger. Historically, a strong Dollar has produced a serious headwind for freight volumes, first in all things exported, and then in a reduction of things manufactured or assembled domestically.
  • Expecting Flattish 2H: Ex auto industrial production trends did start to flatten out in Q2 (improving to up 0.2% in Q2 from down 1.2% in Q1). We see this largely as a return to more normal seasonal production patterns than anything else. Overall industrial production continues to track between 0 and +1% thanks to the lift from autos and nondurables (goods consumption picked up in Q2 as seen in the GDP data). However, we are concerned that elevated inventories on dealer lots, along with slowing sales, will lead to U.S. auto production growing less than 1% on a YoY basis in Q3. Thus, we are now anticipating ‘2H manufacturing industrial production to be flat YoY, down from our prior hopes of a modest recovery into the up 1+% range.
  • As we have pointed out, the U.S. consumer has been saving and paying down debt with this disposable income for over six quarters. By this holiday season, we expect them to begin to spend at least part of their income. If not, the risk of an overall recession grows. That said, there is a bit of irony in our prediction of possible recession. The longer the consumer saves and pays down debt, the more likely it is that the U.S. falls into a recession. But, the longer the consumer saves and pays down debt, the shorter and more mild the recession will be since there will be less excess to clean up. Stay tuned…

Mish Comments

This mythical GDP build based on inventories keeps sinking in to the sunset. In particular, auto inventories have soared, and autos have been one of the few bright spots in the economy.

The other bright spot has been housing. While not robust, it has been reasonably solid. However, prices home buyers have been able or willing to pay keeps declining.

Thanks to Obamacare, medical premiums have soared. Today’s CPI report (see Bloomberg Cheers Rising Rent and Gas Prices: Parrots vs. Humans) shows additional cause for concern.

Rent, energy, and medical costs are up. This will impact discretionary spending.

Inventory Crisis: Can Parrots Read Charts?

inventory-to-sales-ratio-2016-10a

Bloomberg cited tight management of inventories. My conclusion was parrots cannot read charts.

SupplyChain notes an inventory crisis with retailers caught in a dilemma. Retailers need inventory, but they are not moving it well.

Inventory Management

  1. Warehouse vacancy rates in many major cities sit below 5%
  2. A glut of inventory is building up in across retailers in the US
  3. Retailers turning to direct shipments as a clever way of reducing inventory burdens

For more details, please see Inventory Crisis: Can Parrots Read Charts?

Finally, the November election will leave at least half the country in a sour mood.

All things considered, things are not shaping up well for third quarter GDP and estimates are falling like a rock, as expected in this quarter.

 

 

end

 

It sure looks like Hillary has committed perjury: Wikileaks:

as for her personal emails….

“I asked that they be deleted”!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(courtesy zero hedge)

 

The Missing “Oh Shit” Link Revealed: Hillary Admits “I Asked That They Be Deleted”

Back in September we wrote about the circumstances leading up to the “Oh Shit” moment when Paul Combetta of Platte River Networks deleted Hillary’s 30,000 “personal emails” (the full notes is here:  “The “Oh Shit” Moment: Hillary Wiped Her Server With BleachBit Despite Subpoena“).  Within the original FBI interview notes, Hillary “stated she never deleted, nor did she instruct anyone to delete, her e-mails to avoid complying with FOIA, State, or FBI requests for information.”  Moreover, just last week, in sworn testimony provided to Judicial Watch, Hillary also denied asking for the emails to be deleted.  That said, a new email discovered in the latest WikiLeaks dump seems to offer a direct contradiction to what Hillary previously told both the FBI and Judicial Watch.

So which version is true?

–  FBI Notes:  “Clinton stated she was also unaware of the March 2015 e-mail deletions by PRN.”

–  Judicial Watch Testimony:   “She believes that her personal e-mails were not kept, and she does not have any personal knowledge about the details of that process.”

–  Private Talking Points (WikiLeaks):  “As I said in March, I chose not to keep the personal ones.  I asked that they be deleted.”

 

Before getting into the details, here is the background from the FBI notes on how Hillary’s personal emails came to be deleted.

Shortly after providing the data dump to the State Department, in “December 2014 or January 2015,” both Heather Samuelson and Cheryl Mills requested that all emails be removed from their computers using “a program called BleachBit to delete the e-mail-related files so they could not be recovered.” 

For her part, “Clinton stated she never deleted, nor did she instruct anyone to delete, her e-mails to avoid complying with FOIA, State or FBI requests for information” though the following notes suggest she did agree to change her email retention policy to 60 days.

Clinton 1

 

A few months later, on March 4, 2015, Hillary received a subpoena from the House for all of her emails on all of her personal servers.

Hillary FBI BleachBit

 

Which brings us to the “Oh Shit” moment which occurred on March 25, 2015.  On that fateful day, Paul Combetta realized that he had forgotten to change Hillary’s email retention policy to 60 days.  But, the existence of the Congressional subpoena now meant that those emails needed to be preserved.  Despite acknowledging the subpoena, after a call with Hillary’s attorney, David Kendall, and Cheryl Mills, Combetta proceeded to delete the emails anyway.

Ironically, both Mills and Clinton subsequently denied any knowledge that the “personal emails” were deleted.

“Mills stated she was unaware that [Redacted] had conducted these deletions and modifications in March 2015.  Clinton stated she was also unaware of the March 2015 e-mail deletions by PRN.”

Clinton

 

Which leads us to our final question…if, as reported to the FBI, Hillary was unaware that her “personal emails” were deleted in March 2015 then why, in internal talking points that never surfaced publicly before today, did Clinton admit that “As I said in March, I chose not to keep the personal ones.  I asked that they be deleted.”

Apparently, Hillary has both a public and private position on exactly what happened in March 2015…we’ll let you decide which is more reflective of the truth.

Clinton

 

Finally, we’ll leave you with one more Hillary variation of an “answer” to the exact same question.  The following response was offered to Judicial Watch as part of a FOIA lawsuit and the answer was specifically provided under oath.

Question:  After your lawyers completed their review of the emails in your clintonemail.com email account in late 2014, were the electronic versions of your emails preserved, deleted, or destroyed?  If they were deleted or destroyed, what tool or software was used to delete or destroy them, who deleted or destroyed them, and was the deletion or destruction done at your direction?

 

Response:  Secretary Clinton objects to Interrogatory No. 23 as outside the scope of permitted discovery for the reason set forth in General Objection No. 3.  Secretary Clinton further objects to Interrogatory No. 23 on the ground that it requests information that is outside the scope of permitted discovery for the reason set forth in General Objection No. 5.  Secretary Clinton further objects to Interrogatory No. 23 insofar as it requests information about all e-mail in her clintonemail.com account, including personal e-mail.  Subject to and without waiving the foregoing objections, Secretary Clinton states that it was her expectation that all of her work-related and potentially work-related e-mail then in her custody would be provided to the State Department in response to its request.  Secretary Clinton believes that her attorneys retained copies of the e-mails provided to the State Department in December 2014, but she does not have any personal knowledge about the details of that process.  Secretary Clinton decided that, once her work-related and potentially work-related e-mails were provided to the State Department, she had no reason to keep her personal e-mails, which did not relate to official State Department business. She believes that her personal e-mails were not kept, and she does not have any personal knowledge about the details of that process.

 

So, we ask again, which version is true?

–  FBI Notes:  Clinton stated she was also unaware of the March 2015 e-mail deletions by PRN.”

–  Judicial Watch Testimony:   She believes that her personal e-mails were not kept, and she does not have any personal knowledge about the details of that process.

–  Private Talking Points (WikiLeaks):  “As I said in March, I chose not to keep the personal ones.  I asked that they be deleted.”

 

Finally, we leave you with this:

 end

 

Well that is all for today

I will see you tomorrow night

Harvey

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