Jan 11/JPMorgan continues to acquire silver inventory/gold and silver advance on lacklustre Trump press conference with a lack of detail/Volkswagen hit with 4.3 billion dollar USA fine and must face criminal charges/Mexican peso breaks 22: 1 as the country is in chaos/Turkish lira also plummets as its current account deficit skyrockets/

Gold at (1:30 am est) $1195.60 UP $11.40

silver  at $16.78:  DOWN 2 cents

Access market prices:

Gold: $1192.00

Silver: $16.75

THE DAILY GOLD FIX REPORT FROM SHANGHAI AND LONDON

.

The Shanghai fix is at 10:15 pm est last night and 2:15 am est early this morning

The fix for London is at 5:30  am est (first fix) and 10 am est (second fix)

Thus Shanghai’s second fix corresponds to 195 minutes before London’s first fix.

And now the fix recordings:

TUESDAY gold fix Shanghai

Shanghai FIRST morning fix Jan 11/17 (10:15 pm est last night): $  1207.31

NY ACCESS PRICE: $1187.50 (AT THE EXACT SAME TIME)/premium $19.80

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Shanghai SECOND afternoon fix:  2: 15 am est (second fix/early  morning):$   1205.91

NY ACCESS PRICE: $1189.40 (AT THE EXACT SAME TIME/2:15 am)

HUGE SPREAD 2ND FIX TODAY!!:  $16.01

China rejects NY pricing of gold  as a fraud/arbitrage will now commence fully

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

London Fix: Jan 11/2017: 5:30 am est:  $1187.55   (NY: same time:  $1187.70    5:30AM)

London Second fix Jan 11.2017: 10 am est:  $1178.55 (NY same time: $1180.10  (10 AM)

It seems that Shanghai pricing is higher than the other  two , (NY and London). The spread has been occurring on a regular basis and thus I expect to see arbitrage happening as investors buy the lower priced NY gold and sell to China at the higher price. This should drain the comex.

Also why would mining companies hand in their gold to the comex and receive constantly lower prices.  They would be open to lawsuits if they knowingly continue to supply the comex despite the fact that they could be receiving higher prices in Shanghai.

end

For comex gold: 

NOTICES FILINGS FOR JANUARY CONTRACT MONTH:  0 NOTICE(S) FOR nil OZ.  TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 1046 FOR 104,600 OZ    (3.2534 TONNES)

For silver:

 NOTICES FOR JANUARY CONTRACT MONTH FOR SILVER: 0 NOTICE(s) FOR nil  OZ. TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR; 432 FOR 2,160,000 OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

In silver, the total open interest FELL by 307  contracts DOWN to 165,040 with respect to YESTERDAY’S TRADING  (short covering by the banks).    In ounces, the OI is still represented by just less THAN 1 BILLION oz i.e. .825 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 118% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE JANUARY FRONT MONTH IN SILVER:  0 NOTICES FILED FOR nil  OZ.

In gold, the total comex gold ROSE BY 3,603 contracts WITH THE RISE IN  THE PRICE GOLD ($0.70 with YESTERDAY’S trading ). The total gold OI stands at 444,001 contracts.

we had 0 notice(s) filed upon for nil oz of gold.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD:

We had no  change in tonnes of gold at the GLD/

Inventory rests tonight: 805.00 tonnes

.

SLV

we had A HUGE change in silver into the SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.843 MILLION OZ

THE SLV Inventory rests at: 338.356 million oz

.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight: Preliminary data

1. Today, we had the open interest in silver FELL by 307 contracts DOWN to 165,040 AS SILVER ROSE by  $0.17 with YESTERDAY’S trading. The gold open interest ROSE by 3,603 contracts UP to 444,001 AS THE  PRICE OF GOLD ROSE BY $0.70 WITH YESTERDAY’S TRADING

(report Harvey).

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

 

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY:  Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

 i)Late  TUESDAY night/WEDNESDAY morning: Shanghai closed DOWN 24.92 POINTS OR 0.79%/ /Hang Sang closed UP 190.56 OR 0.84%. The Nikkei closed UP 66.23 POINTS OR .33% /Australia’s all ordinaires  CLOSED UP 0.18%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed WELL DOWN at 6.9341/Oil FELL to 51.00 dollars per barrel for WTI and 53.82 for Brent. Stocks in Europe: ALL MIXED. Offshore yuan trades  6.9130 yuan to the dollar vs 6.9341  for onshore yuan.THE SPREAD BETWEEN ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE WIDENS A BIT AGAIN AS  DOLLARS ATTEMPT TO  LEAVE CHINA’S SHORES /

REPORT ON JAPAN  SOUTH KOREA NORTH KOREA AND CHINA

3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA

none today

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 none today

c) REPORT ON CHINA

i)This ought to scare a few people:  Taiwan scrambles jets and their navy as a Chinese aircraft carrier group enters the Taiwan strait and in Taiwan territorial waters:

( zero hedge)

 

ii)China, as promised to you, launches investigations into “market manipulation” of bitcoin. This caused bitcoin to fall to 800 dollars per coin and the beneficiary is gold

( zero hedge)

4 EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)Volkswagen/Germany

As we indicated to you yesterday, Volkswagen is to pay $4.3 billion in fines in the diesel emissions scandal and will plead guilty to criminal charges.  The floodgates will open with respect to lawsuits

( zero hedge)

ii)The new Italian government avoids early elections after a constitutional court decision;

( zero hedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)Last night, CNN reported that it has a compromising  dossier on Trump as well as evidence of Russian support for his USA presidency.  The Russian called this a complete hoax

( zero hedge)

 

ii)The Donald lashes out at “fake news” again with respect to the above hoax:

( zero hedge)

6.GLOBAL ISSUES

i)The Mexican Peso breaks above 22 pesos to the dollar as Mexico is concerned with Trump protectionism  (huge import tariffs loom)

( zero hedge)

ii)A good commentary on the troubles that Mexico are facing

( Nick Bernabe/The AntiMedia.org)

7. OIL ISSUES

Oil initially plummets on huge inventory builds with API, DOE and Cushing OK increases.  Also huge increase in USA production levels:

( zero hedge)

8. EMERGING MARKETS

i)the most volatile (and unstable) currency in 2016 is the Turkish Lira

( zerohedge)

ii)Wednesday morning;

The Turkish lira continues to plummet to 3.87 to the dollar as its current account deficit skyrockets Not even a rise in rates is helping stem the currency debasement.

( zero hedge)

9.   PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Hugo Salinas Price offers a new way for official reserves to be obtained which will help foster growth in the world’s economy:

( Hugo Salinas Price.)

ii)Bill Murphy, chairman of GATA will speak at the Acapulco conference Feb 24.2917

( GATA)

10.USA STORIES

i)Details missing from the Trump press conference which sends the Dow lower including pharmaceutical stocks, gold higher

( zero hedge/2 commentaries)

ii)Due to higher rates and also the fact that the central banks are paying banks to hold reserves, the Fed only remitted 92 billion back to the treasury in 2016, its lowest level in 3 yrs.

(courtesy zero hedge)

Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest ROSE BY 3,603 CONTRACTS UP to an OI level of 444,001 AS THE  PRICE OF GOLD ROSE $0.70 with YESTERDAY’S trading. We are now in the contract month of JANUARY and it is one of the poorest deliveries of the year.

With the front month of January we had a LOSS of 25 contracts DOWN to 136.  We had 23 notices filed so we LOST 2 contracts or AN ADDITIONAL 200 oz WILL NOT STAND for gold in this non active delivery month of January. For the next big active delivery month of February we had a LOSS of 10,543 contracts DOWN to 253,196. March had a gain of 112 contracts as it’s OI is now 461.

We had 0 notice(s) filed upon today for nil oz

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.  Total silver OI FELL by 307 contracts FROM 165,347 DOWN to 165,040 AS the price of silver ROSE BY $0.17 with YESTERDAY’S trading.  We are moving  further from the all time record high for silver open interest set on Wednesday August 3/2016:  (224,540).

We are now in the non active delivery month of January and here the OI FELL by 124 contracts falling TO  234. We had 124 notice(s) filed on yesterday so we neither gained nor lost any silver contracts (oz) standing for metal in this non active month. The next non active month of February saw the OI FALL by 1 contract(s) FALLING TO  202.

The next big active delivery month is March and here the OI FELL by 1607 contracts DOWN to 131,631 contracts.

We had 0 notice(s) filed for nil oz for the January contract.

VOLUMES: for the gold comex

Today the estimated volume was 349,339  contracts which is excellent.

Yesterday’s confirmed volume was 265,573 contracts  which is very good

Initial standings for january
 Jan 11/2017.
Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz   nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz  
 3215.000
SCOTIA
 100 kilobars
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz 
 nil
No of oz served (contracts) today
 
0 notice(s)
nil oz
No of oz to be served (notices)
136 contracts
13,600 oz
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1046 notices
104,600 oz
3.2534 tonnes
Total accumulative withdrawals  of gold from the Dealers inventory this month   nil oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month     4,577,427.5 oz
Today we HAD 1 kilobar transaction(s)/
Today we had 0 deposit(s) into the dealer:
total dealer deposits:  nil  oz
We had nil dealer withdrawals:
total dealer withdrawals:  nil oz
we had 0  customer deposit(s):
total customer deposits; nil oz
We had 1 customer withdrawal(s)
i) Out of Scotia: 3215.000 oz
(100 kilobars)
total customer withdrawal: 3215.000 oz
We had 0  adjustment(s)
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

For January:

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 0 contract(s)  of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by jPMorgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by jPMorgan customer account.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the initial total number of gold ounces standing for the JANUARY. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1046) x 100 oz or 104,600 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JANUARY (136 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (0) x 100 oz per contract equals 118,200 oz, the number of ounces standing in this non  active month of JANUARY.
 
Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JANUARY contract month:
No of notices served so far (1046) x 100 oz  or ounces + {OI for the front month (136) minus the number of  notices served upon today (0) x 100 oz which equals 118,200 oz standing in this non active delivery month of JANUARY  (3.6702 tonnes)
On first day notice for January 2016, we had .9642 tonnes of gold standing. At the conclusion of the month we had only .5349 tonnes standing so you can visualize the increasing demand for physical gold a t the comex.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
I have now gone over all of the final deliveries for this year and it is startling.
First of all:  in 2015 for the 13 months: 51 tonnes delivered upon for an average of 4.25 tonnes per month.
Here are the final deliveries for all of 2016 and the first month of January 2017
Jan 2016:  .5349 tonnes  (Jan is a non delivery month)
Feb 2015:  7.9876 tonnes (Feb is a delivery month/deliveries this month very low)
March 2015: 2.311 tonnes (March is a non delivery month)
April:  12.3917 tonnes (April is a delivery month/levels on the low side
And then something happens and from May forward deliveries boom!
May; 6.889 tonnes (May is a non delivery month)
June; 48.552 tonnes ( June is a very big delivery month and in the end deliveries were huge)
July: 21.452 tonnes (July is a non delivery month and generally a poor one/not this time!)
August: 44.358 tonnes (August is a good delivery month and it came to fruition)
Sept:  8.4167 tonnes (Sept is a non delivery month)
Oct; 30.407 tonnes complete.
Nov.    8.3950 tonnes.
DEC.   29.931 tonnes
JAN/     3.6702 tonnes
total for the 13 months;  226.058 tonnes
average 17.389 tonnes per month vs last yr  51.534 tonnes total for 13 months or 3.964 tonnes average per month.
Total dealer inventor 1,455,213.516 or 45.263 tonnes DEALER RAPIDLY LOSING GOLD
Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) = 9,086,380.973 or 282.624 tonnes 
 
Several months ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today the total inventory rests at 282.624 tonnes for a  loss of 20  tonnes over that period.  Since August 8/2016 we have lost 71 tonnes leaving the comex. However I am including kilobar transactions and they are very suspect at best
I have a sneaky feeling that these withdrawals of gold in kilobars are being used in the hypothecating process  and are being used in the raiding of gold!

The gold comex is an absolute fraud.  The use of kilobars and exact weights makes the data totally absurd and fraudulent! To me, the only thing that makes sense is the fact that “kilobars: are entries of hypothecated gold sent to other jurisdictions so that they will not be short with their underwritten derivatives in that jurisdiction.  This would be similar to the rehypothecated gold used by Jon Corzine at MF Global.
 
IN THE LAST 5 MONTHS  71 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.
end
And now for silver
AND NOW THE DECEMBER DELIVERY MONTH
JANUARY INITIAL standings
 Jan 11. 2017
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory  nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 1,850,199.851 0z
CNT
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
574,474.570 oz
CNT
Deposits to the Customer Inventory 
1,261,277.240 oz
JPM
CNT
Scotia
No of oz served today (contracts)
0 CONTRACT(S)
(nil OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
234 contracts
(1,170,000  oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 432 contracts (2,160,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month  NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal  of silver from the Customer inventory this month  12,330,209.9 oz
 END
today, we had 0 deposit(s) into the dealer account:
total dealer deposit: nil oz
we had nil dealer withdrawals:
total dealer withdrawals: nil oz
we had 1 customer withdrawal(s):
i) Out of CNT: 1,850,199.851 oz
TOTAL CUSTOMER WITHDRAWALS: 1,850,199.851 oz
 we had 1 customer deposit(s):
i) Into JPMorgan:  613,167.710 oz
total customer deposits;  613,167.710   oz
TED BUTLER IS CORRECT:  JPMORGAN IS MASSIVELY ACQUIRING SILVER.
 
 
 we had 0  adjustment(s)
The total number of notices filed today for the JANUARY. contract month is represented by 0 contract(s) for nil oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JANUARY., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at  432 x 5,000 oz  = 2,160,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN (234) and the number of notices served upon today (0) x 5000 oz equals the number of ounces standing 
 
Thus the initial standings for silver for the JANUARY contract month:  432(notices served so far)x 5000 oz +(234) OI for front month of JAN. ) -number of notices served upon today (0)x 5000 oz  equals  3,330,000 oz  of silver standing for the JAN contract month. This is  STILL huge for a non active delivery month in silver. We neither gained nor lost any silver oz standing in this non active month of January. 
At first day notice for the January/2016 silver contract month we had 1,845,000 oz standing for delivery.  By the conclusion of the delivery month we had only 575,000 oz stand.
Volumes: for silver comex
Today the estimated volume was 84,747 which is huge
YESTERDAY’S  confirmed volume was 81,497 contracts  which is also huge.
 
Total dealer silver:  29.202 million (close to record low inventory  
Total number of dealer and customer silver:   180.657 million oz
The total open interest on silver is NOW moving away from  its all time high with the record of 224,540 being set AUGUST 3.2016.

end

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD

Jan 11/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 805.00 tonnes

JAN 10/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 805.00 tonnes

JAN 9/A WITHDRAWAL OF 8.87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 805.00 TONNES

Jan 6/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 813.87 tonnes
Jan 5/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 813.87 tonnes
Jan 4/no change in inventory/inventory rests at 813.87 tonnes
Jan 3.2017/a huge 9.49 tonnes of gold leaves the GLD/inventory rests at 813.87 tonnes
DEC 30/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 823.36 tonnes
Dec 29/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at  823.36 tonnes
Dec 28/no change in gold tonnage at the GLD/inventory rests at 823.36 tonnes
Dec 27/a withdrawal of 1.18 tonnes from the GLD/Inventory rests at 823.36 tonnes
Dec 23/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/RESTS TONIGHT AT 824.54 TONNES
Dec 22/no change in inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 824.54 tonnes
DEC 21/another massive 3.56 tonnes leaves the GLD/Inventory rests at 824.54 tonnes
Dec 20/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 828.10 tonnes
Dec 19/A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 14.23 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD (WITH GOLD UP THESE PAST TWO TRADING SESSIONS)/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 828.10 TONNES
Dec 16/no changes at the GLD/Inventory rests at 842.33 tonnes
Dec 15/ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 7.11 TONNES OF GOLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.33 TONNES
DEC 14/another huge withdrawal of 6.82 tonnes from the GLD/Inventory rests at 849.44 tonnes/
DEC 13/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 856.26 tonnes
Dec 12/a withdrawal of 1.19 tonnes of gold from the GLD/Inventory rests at 856.26 tonnes
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Jan 11/2017/ Inventory rests tonight at 805.00 tonnes
*IN LAST 67 TRADING DAYS: 144.81 TONNES REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 14 TRADING DAYS: 19.54 TONNES HAVE LEFT

end

Now the SLV Inventory
Jan 11A HUGE WITHDRAWAL F 2.843 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 338.339 MILLION OZ/
JAN 10/no changes in inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 341.199 million oz
JAN 9/no changes in inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 341.199 million oz/
jan 6/no changes in inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 341.199 million oz
Jan 5/no changes in inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 341.199 million oz
Jan 4/a small withdrawal of 149,000 oz (probably to pay for fees/inventory rests at 341.199 million oz
Jan 3.2017/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 341.348 million oz/
DEC 30/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 341.348 million oz/
Dec 29/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 341.348 million oz
Dec 28/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory at 341.348 million oz/
Dec 27/a big deposit of 1.138 million oz/Inventory rests at 341.348 million oz
Dec 23/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 340.210 MILLION OZ/
Dec 22/WE HAD A SMALL DEPOSIT OF 948,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 340.210 MILLION OZ/
DEC 21/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 339.262 million oz
Dec 20/a small withdrawal of 758,000 oz/inventory rests at 339.262 tonnes
Dec 19A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.327 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 340.020 MILLION OZ
Dec 16/A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.37 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 338.693 MILLION OZ/
Dec 15/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 341.063 MILLION OZ/
Dec 14.no change in inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 341.063 million oz/
DEC 13/ a huge withdrawal of 1.802 million oz from the SLV/Inventory rests at 341.063 million oz
Dec 12/no change in silver inventory/inventory rests at 342.865 million oz/
.
Jan 11.2017: Inventory 338.339  million oz
 end

NPV for Sprott and Central Fund of Canada

1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative 6.3 percent to NAV usa funds and Negative 6.9% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!! 
Percentage of fund in gold 60.7%
Percentage of fund in silver:39.1%
cash .+0.2%( jan 11/2017) 
.
2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): Premium RISES to +.19%!!!! NAV (Jan 11/2017) 
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO – 0.45% to NAV  ( Jan 11/2017)
Note: Sprott silver trust back  into POSITIVE territory at +0.19% /Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE territory at -0.45%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail.
 

end

Major gold/silver trading/commentaries for WEDNESDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE

Prince Owned Land and Gold Bars Worth $800,000

Gold Bars Worth $800,000 Owned By Prince

Prince, RIP, owned gold bars worth just over $800,000 according to the statement filed in a Minnesota court last Friday.

Source: Amazon.com

At the time of his death, Prince had taken delivery of and had in his possession 67 gold bars, 10 ounce gold bars, valued at $836,166.70. That’s according to an asset inventory compiled by Bremer Trust released by the Carver County District Court, as first reported by the Minneapolis Star Tribune.

The release inventory showed that the “Purple Rain” singer had no stocks, bonds, or other financial assets, but did have a substantial amount of land, property, cash and gold bars.

Besides the gold bars, Prince also had “about $110,000 in four bank accounts, unclaimed property, capital credits and cash” according to the Minneapolis Star Tribune.

He also had a dozen tracts of land in Carver and Hennepin, Minnesota that have an estimated total value of $25.4 million.

His estate has been valued between $100 million and $300 million before taxes, which are expected to claim roughly half.

Among the items that have not yet been assigned a specific value are the ‘When Doves Cry’ singer’s musical instruments, household furnishings, jewellery and his famous ‘Purple Rain’ and ‘Graffiti Bridge’ motorcycles.

In addition, the value of Prince’s copyrights and trademarks are still unclear.

Prince’s companies, Paisley Park Enterprises Inc., NPG Records Inc., NPG Music Publishing and LotusFlow3r had more than $6 million in cash.

It seems likely that the land Prince owned was agricultural land as Minnesota is still a largely agricultural state.

From Wikipedia on Minnesota:

Although less than one percent of the population is now employed in the agricultural sector, it remains a major part of the state’s economy, ranking sixth in the nation in the value of products sold.[81] The state is the U.S.’s largest producer of sugar beets, sweet corn, and green peas for processing, and farm-raised turkeys. Minnesota is also a large producer of corn and soybeans

Prince, like many artists, preferred hard, tangible assets to paper assets such as bonds and stocks. It seems that he also understood the value of diversification and owning physical gold as financial insurance.

Possession is 9/10s of the law – especially in a financial crisis. He had worked hard all his life and did not want to be a “slave” to the banks, corporations and the financial system.

Contrary to some media, Prince was no crazy “gold bug” or “Scrooge McDuck” who was “hoarding” gold for Armageddon.

Prince’s hard asset portfolio had an allocation to gold of about 2% of his overall portfolio. We would advise higher allocations of 10% plus for investors and savers. However, for high net worth individuals that allocate to physical gold, 2% is a healthy allocation if taking possession of gold coins and bars.

 

END-

 

Hugo Salinas Price offers a new way for official reserves to be obtained which will help foster growth in the world’s economy:

(courtesy Hugo Salinas Price.)

Hugo Salinas Price: Dollar’s reserve currency status destroys U.S. manufacturing

Section:

7:02p ET January 10, 2017

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Hugo Salinas Price, president of the Mexican Civic Association for Silver, explains tonight how the U.S. dollar’s role as the world reserve currency has destroyed so much manufacturing in the United States. The only way countries can obtain dollars, Salinas Price writes, is to export to the United States, and they can do that only if they price their products below the prices charged by U.S. manufacturers. An alternative system, Salinas Price writes, would require a different reserve currency, the contrivance created by the International Monetary Fund — Special Drawing Rights — or a certain rather scarce yellow metal that used to do the job well and impartially. Salinas Price’s commentary is headlined “Trump’s Ignorance” and it’s posted at the Mexican Civic Association for Silver’s internet site, Plata.com.mx, here:

http://www.plata.com.mx/mplata/articulos/articlesFilt.asp?offset=140&fii…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

 

 

END

 

Bill Murphy, chairman of GATA will speak at the Acapulco conference Feb 24.2917

(courtesy GATA)

GATA Chairman Murphy to speak at Dollar Vigilante conference in Acapulco

Section:

8:38p ET Tuesday, January 10, 2017

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GATA Chairman Bill Murphy will speak at The Dollar Vigilante’s second annual internationalization and investment summit in sunny Acapulco, Mexico, on Friday, February 24, a day ahead of the four-day “anarcho-capitalist” Anarchapulco conference there.

Also speaking at the Dollar Vigilante conference will be the financial letter’s co-founders, Jeff Berwick and Ed Bugos; David Morgan of The Morgan Report and Silver-Investor.com; Bix Weir of the Road to Roota letter; and mining industry broker Ben Johnson.

Speakers at the Anarchapulco conference will include G. Edward Griffin, author of the classic polemical history of the Federal Reserve System, “The Creature from Jekyll Island”; bitcoin proponent Trace Mayer; and a dozen even freer spirits.

Topics at the conferences will include:

— The world’s economic and financial outlook.

— Monetary metals investing and strategies.

— Investing in gold and silver mining stocks.

— Cryptocurrency storage, trading, and investing.

— Austrian School economics.

— “Perpetual traveler/prior taxpayer” theory.

— Expatriation and international opportunities.

The conferences will be held at the conference center at the spectacular Resort Mundo Imperial.

Admission to the TDV conference alone costs $395 and you’ll get a $10 discount if you use “GATA” as a coupon code.

Admission to the Anarchapulco conference costs $245 for the first 300 registrants. A student discount is available.

To learn more about the conferences and hotel options as well as to register, please visit:

http://tdvinvestmentsummit.com

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust ActioN

 

END

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight

 
 

1 Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/yuan DOWN to 6.9340(SMALL DEVALUATION SOUTHBOUND  /CHINA UNHAPPY TODAY CONCERNING USA DOLLAR RISE/MORE $ USA DOLLARS LEAVE CHINA/OFFSHORE YUAN WIDENS   TO 6.9130 / Shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 24.92 POINTS OR 0.79%   / HANG SANG CLOSED UP 190.56 OR 0.84% 

2. Nikkei closed UP 63.23 POINTS OR .33%   /USA: YEN RISES TO 116.38

3. Europe stocks opened ALL MIXED       ( /USA dollar index RISES TO  102.43/Euro DOWN to 1.0503

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO    +.065%/     !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 116.28/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD FINALLY IN THE POSITIVE/BANK OF JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR YIELD CURVE AS THEY PURCHASE ALL BONDS TO GET TO ZERO RATE!!

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI::  52.10  and Brent: 55.01

3f Gold UP/Yen DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS  AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN for Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO  +.333%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN  to 1.897%    

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS to  : 6.88%   

3k Gold at $1188.90/silver $16.75(8:45 am est)   SILVER BELOW RESISTANCE AT $18.50 

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN   3/100 in  roubles/dollar) 60.18-

3m oil into the 51 dollar handle for WTI and 53 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation  (already upon us). This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/China forced to do QE!! as it lowers its yuan value to the dollar/GOT a SMALL   DEVALUATION DOWNWARD from POBC.

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 116.28 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning  1.0208 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.0725 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISES to  +.333%

3s The Greece ELA NOW a 71.4 billion euros,AND NOW THE ECB WILL ACCEPT GREEK BONDS (WHAT A DISASTER)

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”.  Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.376% early this morning. Thirty year rate  at 2.965% /POLICY ERROR)GETTING DANGEROUSLY HIGH

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)

HELICOPTER MONEY STILL ON THE TABLE FOR THE FUTURE/JAPANESE STIMULUS PLAN DISAPPOINTS

Dollar Rises Before Trump Press Conference; Futures Flat, Turkish Lira Plunges

European and Asian shares, the dollar and crude all rose before President-elect Donald Trump’s first press conference since July at 11am on Wednesday, while S&P futures are little changed. Surging raw-materials stocks sent Asian stocks higher. Oil rebounds from the lowest level in a month.

In a session light on economic news, all eyes will be on Trump’s press conference scheduled for 11 am: while Trump’s election campaign calls for tax cuts and more infrastructure spending have boosted U.S. shares and the dollar, his protectionist statements and a flurry of off-the-cuff Tweets have kept many investors from adding to risky positions. Trump has vowed to label China a currency manipulator on his first day in office on Jan. 20 and has threatened to slap huge tariffs on imports from China.  Paul Ryan and top members of Trump’s transition team are discussing a controversial plan to tax imports. Economists have warned that protectionist measures could stifle international trade and hurt global growth. That brings Trump’s press conference into sharp focus.

Ahead of this markets have been fairly reluctant to lay on any big bets this week heading into today’s main event. Indeed it’s been another fairly quiet 24 hours on the whole. Look no further than the S&P 500 which closed completely unchanged last night after wiping out some early modest gains. Sector wise gains for financials and health care stocks were balanced out by losses across energy stocks and real estate

So with that out of the way, here are the session highlights so far:

  1. Dollar pushes higher ahead of Trump press conference
  2. Oil prices edge higher ahead of U.S. inventory data
  3. U.S. stock futures point to flat open on Wall Street
  4. Turkish lira hits fresh record lows
  5. Gold hits fresh 6-week high before Trump appearance

“From a currency perspective, markets will aim to get a clearer picture on trade, fiscal stimulus and the new administration’s relationship to the Fed,” Morgan Stanley strategists wrote in a note to clients.

“There’s quite a lot of positioning that Trump delivers at least part of the stimulus he promises,” said Christopher Jeffery, asset allocation strategist at Legal & General Investment Management in London, who has recently adopted neutral weighting on the dollar from a more-bullish stance. “We worry that positioning has become stretched and that he doesn’t deliver.”

In early trading, Europe opened lower only to post a modest rebound, as the Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 0.2% while after sliding -0.3%, while the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index rose 0.1 percent as a result of the latest drop in sterling, climbing for a 12th day. If the move holds, it would be the gauge’s longest rising streak on record. The pound briefly dropped below $1.21 for the first time since October, even as reports show industrial and manufacturing production grew at a faster pace than analysts forecasts.

As sterling fell, the dollar rose, and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gained 0.2 percent as of 11:00 a.m. in London.

In other notable currency moves, the plunge in Turkey’s lira continued again this morning, tumbling nearly 2% against the dollar to new all time lows after data showed a worsening in the country’s current account deficit and investors took no comfort in the central bank’s latest move to shore up the currency. The lira traded at an all-time low of TRY3.8925 against the dollar after November’s current account figures showed a $590m deterioration in the deficit as the FT notes, heaping further pressure on a slowing economy suffering from sharp drops in tourist revenue. Today’s renewed lira selling follows the central bank’s attempt to put a floor on the currency by freeing up liquidity in the foreign exchange market. However, as we expected, yesterday’s announcement to tweak banks’ FX reserve requirements has done nothing stop investors dumping the currency.

S&P 500 Index futures edged higher, reversing declines over the week’s first two days.

Commodities rebounded despite the dollar strength, with West Texas Intermediate rebounding from its lowest level in a month, up 0.9% to $52.16 a barrel. Iron ore futures jumped 3 percent in China after a 5.5 percent rally on Tuesday. Gold was little changed. Uranium surged the most in more than three weeks as Kazakhstan said it will reduce production by 10 percent this year after prices slumped in 2016 amid a global inventory glut. Copper held near the highest closing price in nearly a month on the outlook for tighter supply following Indonesia’s signing of new mineral export regulations and miners’ wage negotiations in Chile.  U.S. natural gas fell 1.8 percent, paring its biggest gain in three weeks following forecasts of below-average temperatures.

* * *

Bulletin headline summary from RanSquawk

  •  European equities trade modestly higher with participants very much awaiting today’s press conference from President-elect Trump
  • Once again we are left watching GBP taking another beating, with the Cable rate pushed down to 1.2100
  • Highlights include DoE crude oil inventories, comments from BoE’s Carney and press conference from President-Elect Trump

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up less than 0.1% to 2265
  • Stoxx 600 up 0.2% to 365
  • FTSE 100 up 0.2% to 7289
  • DAX up 0.2% to 11609
  • German 10Yr yield up 8bps to 0.36%
  • Italian 10Yr yield up less than 1bp to 1.92%
  • Spanish 10Yr yield down 2bps to 1.46%
  • S&P GSCI Index up 0.6% to 391.2
  • MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.2% to 140
  • Nikkei 225 up 0.3% to 19365
  • Hang Seng up 0.8% to 22935
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.8% to 3137
  • S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 5771
  • US 10-yr yield up 1bp to 2.39%
  • Dollar Index up 0.27% to 102.29
  • WTI Crude futures up 0.7% to $51.20
  • Brent Futures up 0.9% to $54.11
  • Gold spot up less than 0.1% to $1,189
  • Silver spot up 0.1% to $16.81

Top Global News

  • Trump Said to Be Told of Unverified Russian Intelligence Plot: U.S. spy agencies told Obama and president-elect about scheme
  • Ex-Head of Russia’s FSB Says No Dirt Collected on Trump: IFX
  • Tillerson to Call Russia ‘a Danger’ in Confirmation Testimony
  • President-Elect Trump to hold news conference to discuss business ventures, potential conflicts of interest
  • Ford to Pay $200 Million Cash on Top of Regular Dividend: payment a show of confidence even as co. enters a year planning expensive investments in electric and autonomous vehicles
  • Tesla’s Autopilot Head Said to Depart as Apple Engineer Hired: Sterling Anderson leaves car company’s autonomous driving post, Chris Lattner, who led Apple’s Swift development, joins Tesla
  • VW Board Set to Sign Off on $4.3 Billion U.S. Diesel Penalty: settlement sends crisis cost above $19.2 billion set aside; U.S. Justice Department deal includes VW guilty plea
  • Warburg Said to Be Forming Consortium to Bid for Singapore’s GLP: Warburg Pincus talking to banks, potential bidding partners
  • U.S. May Be Probing Other Targets in Former Autonomy CFO’s Case: former Autonomy CFO Hussain set to appear in U.S. court for first time
  • Airbus Retains Order Lead Over Boeing Over Late Sales Windfall: European co. booked 320 aircraft puchases in Dec.; delivery tally beat target by 18 planes as A350 pinch eased

Looking at regional markets, Asian stocks traded mostly higher to shake off a mixed US close where the energy sector dragged the DJIA lower. ASX 200 (+0.2%) traded in the green and was boosted by the materials and mining sector after Dalian iron ore rose 8% yesterday. Nikkei 225 (+0.3%) was positive as exporters benefited from recent JPY weakness as USD/JPY reclaimed the 116.00 handle, while Sony (+3.5%) shares post over 3% gains for the second consecutive day. In China, markets were mixed as Shanghai Comp (-0.6%) suffered amid the PBoC conducting yet another weak liquidity operation, while Hang Seng (+0.7%) outperformed and was lifted by positive earnings from a number of properties names. Finally, 10yr JGBs traded marginally higher after the 30yr auction showed a better than prior bid-to-cover, while there was some underperformance seen in the long end of the curve.

Top Asian News

  • Singapore’s Garena Said to Pick Goldman for $1 Billion IPO: Most valuable Southeast Asian startup considering U.S. listing
  • Samsung’s Lee Summoned in Bribery Probe, Prosecutors Say: Appearance set for 9:30 a.m. local time Thursday
  • Indonesia Orders Bond Dealers to Uphold Country’s Interest: Bond dealers asked to maintain professionalism, integrity
  • Analyst Who Foresaw Yen Fall Sees More Pain as 125 in Sight: Expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates three times

European equities trade modestly higher so far this morning, with slight outperformance seen in the FTSE 100 (+0.2%). UK indices were supported by the latest earnings update from Sainsbury’s, which followed the trend set by Morrison’s earlier in the week with their impressive report. Elsewhere, focus will remain on the UK housing sector after Foxtons trade lower by around 6% in the wake of their pre-market update. Elsewhere, on a sector specific basis energy and material names are among the laggards, with pharmaceuticals also seeing softness. Fixed income markets continue to see Bunds trade in a relatively tight range, as has been the case throughout the week so far. As such, the German benchmark trades marginally above the 163 level, at the upper end of the aforementioned range.

Top European News

  • U.K. Industrial Output Rises More Than Forecast on Oil, Gas: gause rose more than forecast in November, led by a surge in oil and gas as a major North Sea field resumed operations
  • Sainsbury’s Sales Beat Estimates as Grocers Get Christmas Boost: holiday sales growth at Argos chain confounds skeptics; shares advance as much as 7.1%, most since January last year
  • Bouygues Gets $1.8 Billion Hinkley Nuclear Plant Contract: French contractor to work with U.K. builder Laing O’Rourke
  • Defense Supplier Cobham Drops as Profit Falls Short, Debt Rises: U.K. aerospace parts maker cites delays in Boeing KC-46 tanker; shares fall 21% after Cobham cancels final dividend

In currencies, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, a gauge of the greenback against 10 major peers, gained 0.2 percent as of 10:58 a.m. in London. Turkey’s lira slumped 1.7 percent, retreating for a fifth day as investors awaited signs the central bank will support the currency. Once again we are left watching GBP taking another beating, with the Cable rate pushed down to 1.2100 to record new cycle lows in the wake of the production and trade data this morning. Both the Nov manufacturing and industrial numbers beat on expectations, but the trade deficit widened on all counts to give GBP bears the ammunition to spark off another sell off. The USD rate is particularly vulnerable going forward, as ahead of the Trump press conference this evening, we are seeing the greenback gaining some traction again, just as many were expecting a little caution/moderation ahead of this, and indeed the inauguration next week. USD/JPY is again leading the way as dip buyers ahead of 115.00 have been plenty this week, but plenty more wood to chop on the upside before we can get comfortable again, as EUR/USD sales continue to run into demand on the way down. Support seen ahead of 1.0500 but stronger levels seen into the mid 1.0400’s. USD/CHF is testing 1.0200 again, but the commodity currencies are giving up little ground as AUD stays in touch with .7400 up top.

In commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude advanced 0.9 percent to $52.16 a barrel. Iron ore futures jumped 3 percent in China after a 5.5 percent rally on Tuesday. Gold was little changed. Uranium surged the most in more than three weeks as Kazakhstan said it will reduce production by 10 percent this year after prices slumped in 2016 amid a global inventory glut. Copper held near the highest closing price in nearly a month on the outlook for tighter supply following Indonesia’s signing of new mineral export regulations and miners’ wage negotiations in Chile.  U.S. natural gas fell 1.8 percent, paring its biggest gain in three weeks following forecasts of below-average temperatures.

In terms of the day ahead, clearly all eyes will be on President-elect Trump’s news conference this afternoon. In fairness the calendar is fairly light anyway with just UK trade data and the industrial and manufacturing production reports for November due out this morning. BoE Governor Carney is also scheduled to speak this afternoon at 2.15pm GMT when he is set to testify before the UK parliament’s Treasury Select Committee while the NY Fed’s Dudley is due to speak at 6.20pm GMT.

* * *

US Government agenda

  • 9am: U.S. Chamber of Commerce CEO Thomas Donohue and group’s chief policy officer, Neil Bradley, deliver annual “State of American Business” address
  • 9:15am: Senate Foreign Relations hearing on nomination of former Exxon Mobil CEO Rex Tillerson for sec. of state
  • 9:30am: Senate Judiciary Cmte second hearing on Sen. Jeff Sessions’ nomination for attorney general
  • 10:15am: Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Cmte hearing on nomination of Elaine Chao for transportation secretary
  • 11am: President-Elect Trump to hold news conference to discuss business ventures, potential conflicts of interest

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

President-elect Trump’s first news conference since the summer kicks off at 11am ET time/4pm GMT and if his recent tweets are anything to go by it promises to be a lively affair.

Mr Trump passed the acceptance speech test with flying colours back on election day with a gracious rehearsed speech. This is likely to be a more confrontational event and much of the world will be keen to see a) how he handles it and b) whether he fleshes out the desired direction of policy. I really can’t see it being a non-event even if I’ve no idea what he’ll say. In fact everything appears to be open for discussion but markets will likely be most interested in what he says about the comprehensive tax reform, foreign policy and border taxes in particular. In addition, after Trump urged congressional Republicans to repeal Obamacare immediately yesterday and vote on a replacement bill within weeks, expect that to also be a topical subject. On top of this the overnight press is dominated by a CNN report which suggests that US intelligence officers presented Trump with classified documents last week including allegations that operatives in Russia claim to have unverified compromising financial and personal information about Trump. So it should be interesting.

Ahead of this markets have been fairly reluctant to lay on any big bets this week heading into today’s main event. Indeed it’s been another fairly quiet 24 hours on the whole. Look no further than the S&P 500 which closed completely unchanged last night after wiping out some early modest gains. Sector wise gains for financials and health care stocks were balanced out by losses across energy stocks and real estate. Prior to this in Europe the Stoxx 600 (+0.11%) closed a touch firmer but again it wasn’t anything to get too excited about. One market which continues to surge on though is the FTSE 100 which yesterday closed up another +0.52%. In doing so it not only notched up its 9th consecutive fresh record high – the longest such run – but also took its run of consecutive daily gains to 11 which is a feat matched on only three other occasions, those coming in 2009, 2004 and 1997. In total return terms over those 11 days the FTSE 100 has notched +3.37% with the latest leg lower for Sterling (-1.48% in the same period) a big driving force. Indeed in US Dollar terms the return over that time is a more modest +1.83%. Refreshing our performance charts quickly, with the Pound now down -18.20% since the Brexit vote the FTSE 100 has now delivered a +16.80% total return in Sterling terms but a -4.45% total return in US Dollar terms.

Meanwhile commodity markets continue to pull in different directions. WTI Oil dipped another -2.19% yesterday and finished below $51/bbl having closed at $54/bbl on Friday. That’s despite there not really being any new news with the market still seemingly focused on the supply story in the US. On the other hand Gold was up another +0.72% yesterday along with decent gains for other precious metals, while iron ore (+2.19%), copper (+2.99%) and zinc (+1.99%) also continue to hover around recent highs after getting a boost from the huge increase in China producer price inflation yesterday. Rates markets, meanwhile, were a touch weaker if anything with 10y Treasury yields edging up 1.1bps to 2.377%. The Greenback (+0.10%) ended a touch firmer.

This morning in Asia, with the exception of China the mood is generally positive. The Nikkei (+0.36%), Hang Seng (+0.66%), Kospi (+1.45%) and ASX (+0.23%) are all up, largely led by anything commodity linked, while the Shanghai Comp (-0.53%) is currently in the red. US equity index futures are little changed while bond markets have been quiet.

Moving on. While markets weren’t particularly thrilling yesterday there was at least some interest in the data. Specifically it was the NFIB small business optimism survey in the US which turned a few heads after the index surged 7.4pts in December to 105.8 (vs. 99.5 expected). That is actually the largest one-month gain ever for the index and puts the index at the highest level since December 2004. The gain  was mostly reflected in the economic outlook index which rose a whopping 38pts. Our US economists noted that the since the NFIB data are highly correlated with the broader economy, which makes sense given that small and medium sized business account for nearly 80% of the labour market, the recent upshift in the NFIB strongly suggests that 2017 real GDP growth may be even better than their well-above consensus 3% forecast. In terms of the other data, JOLTS job openings pointed to a steady hiring and quits rate in November (3.6% and 2.1% respectively while wholesale inventories were revised up one-tenth to +1.0% mom in November versus the initial estimate. In Europe the only data came from France where industrial production was reported as jumping a much better than expected +2.2% mom in November (vs. +0.6% expected). Finally before we wrap up, yesterday we also got the announcement that Richmond Fed President, Jeffrey Lacker, is to retire on October 1st and so step down from his role at the Fed. The news is notable given that Lacker has been one of the more, if not the most, hawkish Fed officials in recent years.

In terms of the day ahead, clearly all eyes will be on President-elect Trump’s news conference this afternoon. In fairness the calendar is fairly light anyway with just UK trade data and the industrial and manufacturing production reports for November due out this morning. BoE Governor Carney is also scheduled to speak this afternoon at 2.15pm GMT when he is set to testify before the UK parliament’s Treasury Select Committee while the NY Fed’s Dudley is due to speak at 6.20pm GMT.

 

 

END

i)Late  TUESDAY night/WEDNESDAY morning: Shanghai closed DOWN 24.92 POINTS OR 0.79%/ /Hang Sang closed UP 190.56 OR 0.84%. The Nikkei closed UP 66.23 POINTS OR .33% /Australia’s all ordinaires  CLOSED UP 0.18%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed WELL DOWN at 6.9341/Oil FELL to 51.00 dollars per barrel for WTI and 53.82 for Brent. Stocks in Europe: ALL MIXED. Offshore yuan trades  6.9130 yuan to the dollar vs 6.9341  for onshore yuan.THE SPREAD BETWEEN ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE WIDENS A BIT AGAIN AS  DOLLARS ATTEMPT TO  LEAVE CHINA’S SHORES /

3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA/:

none today

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

c) REPORT ON CHINA

This ought to scare a few people:  Taiwan scrambles jets and their navy as a Chinese aircraft carrier group enters the Taiwan strait and in Taiwan territorial waters:

(courtesy zero hedge)

Taiwan Scrambles Jets, Navy After Chinese Aircraft Carrier Group Enters Taiwan Strait

While much of America was preparing to listen to Obama speak one final time, the Chinese had far less lofty ambitions, and on Wednesday morning Beijing sent a group of Chinese warships led by China’s sole aircraft carrier north through the Taiwan Strait, resulting in Taiwan scrambling jets and navy ships in the latest sign of heightened tensions between China and the self-ruled Taiwan.

According to Reuters, The Soviet-built Liaoning aircraft carrier, returning from exercises in the South China Sea, was not trespassing in Taiwan’s territorial waters but entered its air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in the southwest, Taiwan’s defense ministry said.


China’s Liaoning aircraft carrier conducts a drill in an area of South China Sea,

in this undated photo taken December, 2016

As a result Taiwan scrambled jets and navy ships to “surveil and control” the passage of the Chinese ships through the narrow body of water separating Taiwan and China. “We have full grasp of its movements,” Taiwan defense ministry spokesman Chen Chung-chi said.

The defense ministry spokesman added that the Taiwanese military aircraft and ships have been deployed to follow the carrier group, which is sailing up the west side of the median line of the strait.

Previously, China has said the Liaoning aircraft carrier was on drills to test weapons and equipment in the disputed South China Sea and its movements comply with international law.

As Reuters adds, the latest Chinese naval exercises have unnerved Beijing’s neighbors, especially Taiwan which Beijing claims as its own, given long-running territorial disputes in the South China Sea. China claims most of the energy-rich waters of the South China Sea, through which about $5 trillion in ship-borne trade passes every year. Neighbors Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam also have claims.

While China traditionally distrusts Taiwan, and especially the new President Tsai Ing-wen, it has has stepped up pressure on her following a protocol-breaking, congratulatory telephone call between her and U.S. President-elect Donald Trump last month.

END

China, as promised to you, launches investigations into “market manipulation” of bitcoin. This caused bitcoin to fall to 800 dollars per coin and the beneficiary is gold

(courtesy zero hedge)

Bitcoin Plummets After China Launches “Market Manipulation” Investigations Of Bitcoin Exchanges

The price of bitcoin slid over 1,200 Yuan in heavy trading in China, crashing nearly 20%, and down more than $100 under $800 on comparable US markets Wednesday, after China’s central bank said it had launched “spot investigations” on bitcoin exchanges in Beijing and Shanghai in order to fend off market risks.

The investigation of exchanges, including BTCC, Huobi and OKCoin, was to look into “possible market manipulation, money laundering, unauthorized financing and other issues”, according to the statements posted on the People’s Bank of China’s website.

To regular readers this should come as no surprise: precisely one week ago, when Bitcoin hit record highs in China, we explicitly warned:

for those buying into bitcoin here on the momentum, most of which originates in China, we urge readers to be cautious as by now the PBOC has certainly noticed that the digital currency remains one of the final, and most successful, means of bypassing capital controls in China. Should Beijing mandate that bitcoin no longer be a means to illegally transfer capital offshore, there is risk of a dramatic, and sharp, drop in its price.

Well, Beijing noticed, and the “dramatic, sharp” drop in price has taken place as expected; worse with China now openly aggressive against bitcoin “manipulation” it is difficult to see where the next burst of buying momentum will come from, if only in the near term. However, one possibility is that Chinese capital control-evaders will now gravitate to other alternative digital currencies, such as Ethereum, which have so far been far less prominent among Chinese bubble chasers.

ETH up as BTC down. How soon until Chinese bubble shifts to Ethereum

As Reuters further adds on the Chinese crackdown, authorities have been ratcheting up efforts to stop capital outflows and relieve pressure on the yuan to depreciate. The currency lost more than 6.5 percent against the U.S. dollar last year.

With bitcoin’s soaring price and the relative anonymity it affords, some believe the digital currency has become an attractive option for tech-savvy Chinese to hedge against the yuan and circumvent rules that limit the amount of foreign exchange individuals can buy each year.

“Some”… such as this site, which said to buy bitcoin precisely on that catalyst back in September 2015 when it was $230. However, after surging five-fold it was inevitable that China would notice, and the time to take profit had come.

More:

The Shanghai arm of the PBOC said it visited BTCC on Wednesday.

“The checks focused on whether the firm was operating out of its business scope, whether it was launching unauthorized financing, payment, forex business or other related businesses, whether it was involved in market manipulation, anti-money laundering or (carried) fund security risks,” it said.

In a separate statement, the PBOC in Beijing, where officers visited the offices of OKCoin and Huobi, said “the spot checks were focused on how the exchanges implement policies including forex management and anti-money laundering”.

A Huobi executive who declined to be named confirmed the PBOC visited their office on Wednesday, but declined to provide details. A spokeswoman for OKCoin told Reuters its platform was operating normally, and it was working with the authorities. Last week, PBOC officials meet with the three exchanges, and the central bank publicly urged investors to take a rational and cautious approach to investing in bitcoin.

Shanghai-based BTCC’s CEO Bobby Lee confirmed the visit, but said he believed the company was not out of line. “We’re definitely vigilant. We think we are in compliance with all the current rules and regulations of running a bitcoin exchange in China,” he told Reuters by phone.

“I wouldn’t call it an investigation. I think they are working closely with us to learn more about our business model and the bitcoin exchange industry. We had a very fruitful meeting today,” Lee said.

Judging by today’s plunge in the price of bitcoin, which has taken it back to levels just before last December’s blast off, the market disagrees.

END

4 EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Volkswagen/Germany

As we indicated to you yesterday, Volkswagen is to pay $4.3 billion in fines in the diesel emissions scandal and will plead guilty to criminal charges.  The floodgates will open with respect to lawsuits

(courtesy zero hedge)

Volkswagen To Pay $4.3 Billion To Settle Diesel Scandal, Will Plead Guilty To Criminal Charges

Confirming recent leaks, Volkswagen – whose former head of US regulatory compliance was arrested on Saturday – said it was in “advanced discussions”  with US authorities to resolve charges related to its diesel emissions scandal, and has negotiated a “concrete draft of a settlement” that would see it pay $4.3 billion in criminal and civil penalties, and would require the German carmaker to enter a guilty plea to various criminal charges, strengthen compliance systems and install an independent monitor for three years.

The agreement, which has yet to be finalized, would lead to an expense that exceeds current provisions, the German automaker said. It also includes a guilty plea to some criminal charges, the Wolfsburg, Germany-based automaker said:

In case of a settlement agreement, the payment obligations are expected to lead to a financial expense that exceeds the current provisions. The concrete impact regarding the annual result 2016 cannot be defined at present due to its dependency on various further factors.

According to Bloomberg, VW’s management and supervisory boards are scheduled to review the settlement today or Wednesday and may raise provisions related to the scandal, which currently total €18.2 billion ($19.2 billion). A final agreement also needs to be approved by U.S. courts. The U.S. Justice Department declined to comment on Volkswagen’s statement.

VW, which admitted in September 2015 to installing software in its diesel cars to cheat emissions tests, is eager to resolve potential criminal charges before federal prosecutors overseeing the settlement talks leave with the Obama administration later this month the FT added.

Porsche, which owns 30.8% of Volkswagen, said its financial performance will be hurt by the settlement:

The concrete implications on the result of the Porsche SE group for the fiscal year 2016 can only be reliably assessed once Volkswagen group has conclusively evaluated the financial liabilities resulting from this settlement. At this point in time it cannot be ruled out that the Porsche SE group result after tax may fall below the previously communicated corridor between Euro 1.4 bn. and Euro 2.4 bn.

Finalizing the settlement would mark a key milestone in Volkswagen’s effort to emerge from the scandal that erupted in September 2015 after U.S. authorities uncovered the carmaker’s efforts to deliberately cheat on emissions tests on diesel vehicles. The rigged engines were ultimately installed in 11 million vehicles worldwide, and cost former Chief Executive Officer Martin Winterkorn his job.

 

 

end

 

The new Italian government avoids early elections after a constitutional court decision;

(courtesy zero hedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Last night, CNN reported that it has a compromising  dossier on Trump as well as evidence of Russian support for his USA presidency.  The Russian called this a complete hoax

(courtesy zero hedge)

Kremlin Denies It Has “Compromising” Dossier On Trump, Calls Intel Report “Complete Fabrication”

Responding to the latest report accusing Trump of being a Russian pawn (which may at least partially have been the spawn of a 4Chan hoax), the Kremlin said on Wednesday it was “total nonsense” that Russian officials had assembled a file of compromising information on Donald Trump.  Speaking to reporters on a conference call today, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the dossier containing the claims was a hoax which had been dreamt up to further harm U.S.-Russia relations, which are already at their lowest level since the Cold War.

Peskov told reporters that Russia had no “kompromat” – a term for ‘compromising material’ – on Trump, as claimed in an unsourced report widely shared among the highest levels of US government, and which had been distributed months ago, and also available to the Clinton campaign.

The information is not true and is nothing other than a total fabrication,” Peskov said, according to Interfax. “It’s a complete fake, it’s a complete fabrication, it’s total nonsense.”


Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov

“It is an attempt to damage our bilateral relations. It is pulp fiction,” said Peskov, who according to Reuters also roundly dismissed as false assertions in the dossier that he himself was heavily involved in running a Russian campaign to undermine defeated presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. “You have to react to this with a certain humor, but there’s also a sad side to this. Hysteria is being whipped up to maintain a political witch hunt.”

Peskov added that the Kremlin does not engage in compiling compromising dossiers on anyone and was focused on building relations with Russia’s foreign partners instead.  Putin’s spokesman also said the Kremlin also did not have a dossier on Hillary Clinton.

“The Kremlin does not collect kompromat. The Kremlin and the president of [Russia] establish relations with our foreign partners: first of all, in the interests of the Russian Federation and the Russian people, and secondly, in the interests of global peace, stability, and security,” he said.

“It’s an obvious attempt to harm our bilateral relations,” he added. “Fabricating these ‘fakes’ and the quality of the declassified part of the previous report [on alleged Russian meddling in the US election] and this ‘fake’ – when put together, they’re pulp fiction. Of course, you also need to react to this with a certain amount of humor, although there’s a sad side to it.”

Russia’s response conforms with Trump’s angry outburst on Twitter last night, when in a tweet on Tuesday evening, the president-elect likewise dismissed the reports that Russia had compromising information on him. “FAKE NEWS – A TOTAL POLITICAL WITCH HUNT!” he wrote on Twitter.

Peskov echoed Trump’s response. “There are definitely people who incite this hysteria, who go out of their way to support this witch hunt. That’s how president-elect Trump defined this latest fake – as the continuation of a witch hunt.”

On a separate matter, asked to respond to the prospect of new U.S. sanctions affecting Russia’s oil and gas sector, Peskov said such measures, if they happened, would damage Russia, bilateral ties, and the global economy. The Russian energy sector would definitely get compensation if such sanctions were imposed, he added.

Peskov also said Putin was unfazed by reports that Trump’s pick for secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, would say at his confirmation hearing on Wednesday that Russia posed a danger, which previously was praised Tillerson, who has experience of working with top Russian officials in the oil sector. Peskov said the Kremlin stood by its assessment of Tillerson as someone who was willing to listen and was constructive, but was aware he was likely to be a tough operator too.

“We understand that Tillerson will continue to be quite tough in pursuing his line,” said Peskov, saying the Kremlin was not wearing rose-tinted glasses when it came to the former U.S. oilman.

 

end

 

The Donald lashes out at “fake news” again with respect to the above hoax:

(courtesy zero hedge)

Furious Trump Lashes Out At “Fake News” Leak: “Are We Living In Nazi Germany?”

If there was any doubt as to whether the relationship between the President-elect and certain members of the “intelligence community” had fallen on rough times, an angry Tweetstorm from Trump this morning pretty much clears up all the confusion.  After the CIA included what is looking increasingly like fabricated nonsense in their official classified intelligence report (something we noted earlier here), Trump took to Twitter to confirm that it is “A COMPLETE AND TOTAL FABRICATION, UTTER NONSENSE” and questioned whether we’re “living in Nazi Germany.”

Russia just said the unverified report paid for by political opponents is “A COMPLETE AND TOTAL FABRICATION, UTTER NONSENSE.” Very unfair!

Russia has never tried to use leverage over me. I HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH RUSSIA – NO DEALS, NO LOANS, NO NOTHING!

I win an election easily, a great “movement” is verified, and crooked opponents try to belittle our victory with FAKE NEWS. A sorry state!

Intelligence agencies should never have allowed this fake news to “leak” into the public. One last shot at me.Are we living in Nazi Germany?

Russian officials early Wednesday said that news it had “compromising personal and financial information” on Trump was “absolute fabrication.” The Kremlin has no compromising dossier on Mr. Trump, such information is not consistent with reality and is nothing but an absolute fantasy,” said Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov.

“There are people who foment this hysteria, who move heaven and earth to keep up this ‘witch hunt,’ ” he added. “By the way, this is how Mr. Trump characterized this fabrication.”

Late Tuesday night, Trump called the report a “political witch hunt.”

In light of Trump’s adversarial tone, futures are easing lower, concerned what Trump will say at today’s 11AM EST press conference, where the topic of Russia is sure to be top billing.

 

 

end

6.GLOBAL ISSUES

The Mexican Peso breaks above 22 pesos to the dollar as Mexico is concerned with Trump protectionism  (huge import tariffs loom)

(courtesy zero hedge)

Peso Pounded To New Record Lows As Trump Presser Looms

The Mexican Peso has plunged to fresh record lows this morning on mounting concerns that Donald Trump’s trade policy could end the country’s privileged status among developing countries.

Looks like Banxico is going to need a bigger intervention…

As The Wall Street Journal reports, the selloff underscores gathering fears that the economic gains Mexico has made over the past two decades could reverse, as the incoming Trump administration takes a confrontational stance that could bring tariffs and border-control measures that until recently appeared unthinkable.

The North American Free Trade Agreement, which in 1994 created a free-trade zone among Mexico, the U.S. and Canada, cracked open the giant American consumer market to Mexican businesses in a way no other emerging market has ever enjoyed. Nafta has also brought relative stability to the peso after a series of currency crises, a crucial factor in reassuring foreign buyers of Mexican bonds and other assets.

Now that advantage could be in jeopardy if Mr. Trump follows through on pledges to renegotiate the agreement.

Luis de la Calle, a former top Mexican trade official, said Mr. Trump’s statements and policies that have caused the peso to decline could backfire. They would dent Mexicans’ ability to buy U.S. goods, which could expand the U.S. trade deficit. A weaker peso is also likely to spur more illegal immigration if Mexico’s economy falters.

“Trump is manipulating Mexico’s currency through his tweets—against the U.S. interest,” Mr. de la Calle said.

We suspect one mention on NAFTA in today’s Trump press conference and the peso breaks above 22/$.

 

end

 

A good commentary on the troubles that Mexico are facing

(courtesy Nick Bernabe/The AntiMedia.org)

Protests In Mexico Push Country To Brink Of Revolution And Nobody’s Talking About It

Submitted by Nick Bernabe via TheAntiMedia.org,

Long-simmering social tensions in Mexico are threatening to boil over as failing neoliberal reforms to the country’s formerly nationalized gas sector are compounded by open corruption, stagnant standards of living, and rampant inflation.

The U.S. media has remained mostly mute on the situation in Mexico, even as the unfolding civil unrest has closed the U.S.-Mexico border in San Diego, California, several times in the past week. Ongoing “gasolinazo” protests in Mexico over a 20 percent rise is gas prices have led to over 400 arrests, 250 looted stores, and six deaths. Roads are being blockaded, borders closed, and government buildings are being sacked. Protests have remained relatively peaceful overall, except for several isolated violent acts, which activists have blamed on government infiltrators.

 

 

The few mainstream news reports that have covered the situation blame rising gas prices but fail to examine several other factors that are pushing Mexico to the brink of revolution.

‘Narco-state’ corruption

The narco-state, or as Mexican activists say, “elnarco-gobiero,” is a term used to describe the open corruption between the Mexican government and drug cartels. The narco-state has been in the headlines lately over the kidnapping and presumed murder of 43 Ayotzinapa students in Iguala, Guerrero, in 2014. This has been a source of continuous anti-government protests ever since.

Though the kidnappings remain officially unsolved, members of the Guerrero Unidos drug cartel have admitted to colluding with local police forces to silence the student activists. Twenty police officers have been arrested in association with the kidnapping. Former Iguala police chief Felipe Flores has been arrested and “accused of offenses including organized crime and kidnapping the students,” the AP reports. The corruption apparently goes all the way to the top, as federal authorities say former Iguala mayor José Luis Abarca personally ordered the kidnappings.

One Mexican activist who wished to remain anonymous told Anti-Media that a lot of people think it’s only the gasoline prices, but the price of gas is just the straw that broke the camel’s back. It all started with Ayotzinapa.

Much like the U.S., the Mexican government is susceptible to corporate influence. It just so happens that the most influential corporate entities in Mexico are drug cartels — and it’s hard for the government to reign in entities that fund and infiltrate it. Similar to the phenomenon of “regulatory capture,” the Mexican government is at least partially funded and co-opted by drug cartels. This festering problem is an underlying factor in the current civil unrest in Mexico.

Neoliberal policies left the working class behind

NAFTA was a contentious issue in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, but it’s just as controversial in Mexico, if not more so. The grand 1994 “free trade” scheme, signed into law by Bill Clinton, saw a dramatic redesign of both the U.S. and Mexican economic landscapes. Corn farmers, long a vital factor in Mexico’s peasant farming economy, were wiped out by low-priced corn subsidized by the U.S. government, which immediately flooded Mexican markets after NAFTA was passed. The Mexican immigration crisis at the U.S.’ southern border soon followed.

Meanwhile, manufacturing plants soon began moving into Mexico from the U.S. to take advantage of extremely cheap labor — leaving many workers in the U.S. out of a job. American agricultural corporations like Driscoll’s have recently come under fire for employing slave-like labor conditions to produce boutique organic fruit for U.S. consumers. Protests for workers rights in Mexico, which recently raised its minimum wage to 80 pesos (~$4) per day, are often met with heavy-handed police crackdowns.

Incoming President Trump has capitalized on two issues caused by NAFTA — the immigration crisis and outsourcing of U.S. jobs — and his reactionary protectionist economic policies will undoubtedly make Mexico’s predicament even worse.

Mexico’s nationalized oil conglomerate, Pemex, has been plagued by falling production for years. Corruption, which is inherent to state-run institutions, has condemned Mexico’s gas industry to inefficiency and stalled innovation. Theft has become a widespread issue, and oil workers were recently caught red-handed siphoning gas directly out of pipelines.

Supposedly to ramp up production and lower prices, the Mexican government pushed through neoliberal privatization schemes in 2013 and 2014, which were backed by U.S. oil interests and incubated by the Hillary Clinton-run State Department. President Enrique Peña Nieto promised the reforms would result in increased production and lower fuel prices, though production has fallen and prices spiked 20 percent on January 1st. Prices are expected to rise even further, as fuel subsidies will be completely phased out by March 2017. Peña Nieto claims the prices must go up to match international prices, though consumers in the U.S. currently pay less for gas than Mexicans.

Peña Nieto’s neoliberal reforms have fallen flat as economic growth has been anemic for years and wealth inequality has grown out of control.

Rampant inflation in Mexico

Perhaps the biggest driver of the current civil upheaval in Mexico is out of control inflation coupled with the value of the peso reaching record lows. Mexican workers are already stretched thin financially as minimum wage hovers at four U.S. dollars per day. Food prices, which were on the rise before the gas price increases, are set to climb 20 percent or more as they correlate closely with prices at the pump.

According to Zero Hedge, in Mexico, it currently takes “the equivalent of 12 days of a minimum wage to fill a tank of gas — compared to the U.S.’ seven hours.” People who don’t drive will also feel the pain, as public transportation costs are likely to rise with fuel prices. Rising gas prices also put downward pressure on the rest of the Mexican economy as workers spend more money on gas and less on consumer goods.

The Mexican government’s deficit spending and Trump’s tough talk on trade have been factors in devaluing the peso, making everything in Mexico more expensive for the working class and driving the general discontent that makes the country a hotbed of unrest.

***

Overall, no one factor can be blamed for causing extreme levels of unrest in Mexico. Before the Ayotzinapa student kidnappings, Mexico was already seeing widespread protests, marches, and strikes. The last several presidential elections have been contested, and the current administration of Enrique Peña Nieto has only a 22 percent approval rating. The general feeling of helplessness in the face of narco-state corruption and economic insecurity is not going away with the next election or protest, and wealth inequality in the country is beyond remedy. Mexico is ripe for revolution. Whether it’s triggered now by the gas gouging and subsequent inflation or in the near future, it’s coming — and we should be talking about it.

7. OIL ISSUES

Oil initially plummets on huge inventory builds with API, DOE and Cushing OK increases.  Also huge increase in USA production levels:

(courtesy zero hedge)

Crude Plunges On Massive Inventory Builds, Biggest Jump In Production In 20 Months

After last week’s massive product builds (and crude draw), API suggested additional builds ahead of DOE data which confirmed even bigger than expected builds in Crude, Gasoline, and Distillates. WTI gapped lower on the print then accelerated lower as US crude production rose by the most since May 2015.

API

  • Crude +1.53mm (+1.5mm exp)
  • Cushing -187k
  • Gasoline +1.69mm
  • Distillates +5.48mm

DOE

  • Crude +4.097mm (+1.5mm exp)
  • Cushing -579k (+100k exp)
  • Gasoline +5.023mm (+2.75mm exp)
  • Distillates +8.356mm

Biggest crude build since November and another week of massive builds in gasoline and distillates…The 13.4 million barrel increase in total U.S. crude and refined products stocks last week is the biggest weekly gain since April 2015.

Notably:

  • U.S. CRUDE WEEKLY CRUDE IMPORTS RISE TO HIGHEST SINCE 2012: EIA U.S.
  • DISTILLATE STOCKS REACH HIGHEST WEEKLY LEVELS SINCE OCTOBER 2010: EIA

Crude prices have slipped this week on, among other things, concerns of rising US crude production which exploded higher in the last week…The biggest surge since May 2015

The overall reaction was a huge gap lower in crude…

Saudi output curbs create “situation where good news fails to halt profit-taking,” says Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. “In the short-term I maintain the view that the downside risk is the greatest due to the threat of long liquidation”

8. EMERGING MARKETS

the most volatile (and unstable) currency in 2016 is the Turkish Lira

(courtesy zerohedge)

And The World’s Most Volatile Currency Is…

A year ago it was the Ruble, but for much of the last year it is the South African Rand that has been the most volatile currency in the world. That is until the last week, as Turkey deals with rising domestic instability (and Erdogan’s push for total rule), the Lira has become the world’s most unstable currency

As we noted earlier,market focus has turned on the lira as a result of Turkey’s large external borrowing requirement which makes its currency one of the most vulnerable currencies to tightening by the Fed.

Not helping matters is that Turkish residents have been flocking to the stability of hard currencies, the opposite of what President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been urging. As the following Bloomberg chart shows, deposits in foreign exchange for individuals and companies excluding banks rose for a third week, signaling a lack of confidence in the lira. It’s the biggest loser among world currencies so far in 2017.

Additionally, Turkish economic growth has remained sluggish and inflation is rising, yet the central bank has been under pressure from President Tayyip Erdogan not to hike interest rates. A series of gun and bomb attacks have heightened security concerns. On Tuesday the Turkish parliament voted to press on with a debate about constitutional reform to strengthen the powers of President Tayyip Erdogan.

“Nobody wants to be the last one in there and everyone is running for the door. There are no signs from the authorities that they are taking it seriously,” said Jakob Christensen, head of EM research at Danske Bank. Christensen said the risk of further attacks was undermining the tourist sector, which is vital for the economy and balance of payments.

Making matters worse, and confirming the currency crisis is becoming one of credit, Turkish five-year credit default swaps rose four bps to 288 bps according to Markit data, a one-month high, and the yield premium paid by Turkish sovereign bonds over U.S. Treasuries on the JPMorgan EMBI Global Diversified widened out 4 bps to 377 bps.

Of course, some might suggest there is an ‘alternative’ currency that is more volatile than the Lira…

end

 

Wednesday morning;

The Turkish lira continues to plummet to 3.87 to the dollar as its current account deficit skyrockets Not even a rise in rates is helping stem the currency debasement.

(courtesy zero hedge)

Turkish Lira Carnage Continues – World’s Most Volatile Currency Crashes Most Since Lehman

The Lira – officially the world’s most volatile currency – has lost 11% of its value since the start of 2017 (down 8 of the last 9 days against the USD).

In fact, the lira headed for its biggest five-day loss since Lehman (Oct 2008) after a pledge by Turkey’s central bank to support the currency failed to convince investors.

As we noted previously, as Turkey deals with rising domestic instability (and Erdogan’s push for total rule), the Lira has become the world’s most unstable currency...

As we noted earlier,market focus has turned on the lira as a result of Turkey’s large external borrowing requirement which makes its currency one of the most vulnerable currencies to tightening by the Fed.

Not helping matters is that Turkish residents have been flocking to the stability of hard currencies, the opposite of what President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been urging. As the following Bloomberg chart shows, deposits in foreign exchange for individuals and companies excluding banks rose for a third week, signaling a lack of confidence in the lira. It’s the biggest loser among world currencies so far in 2017.

Additionally, Turkish economic growth has remained sluggish and inflation is rising, yet the central bank has been under pressure from President Tayyip Erdogan not to hike interest rates. A series of gun and bomb attacks have heightened security concerns. On Tuesday the Turkish parliament voted to press on with a debate about constitutional reform to strengthen the powers of President Tayyip Erdogan.

“Nobody wants to be the last one in there and everyone is running for the door. There are no signs from the authorities that they are taking it seriously,” said Jakob Christensen, head of EM research at Danske Bank. Christensen said the risk of further attacks was undermining the tourist sector, which is vital for the economy and balance of payments.

It;s not just the currency that is in trouble though. The yield on the nation’s 10-year debt surged 45 basis points. The monetary authority said yesterday that it is monitoring “excessive volatility” in the markets and pledged to tackle “unhealthy price formations inconsistent with economic fundamentals.”

 

end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 am

Euro/USA   1.0503 DOWN .0083/REACTING TO  + huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:/TRUMP WINS THE ELECTION/USA READY TO GO ON A SPENDING BINGE WITH THE TRUMP VICTORY/ITALIAN REFERENDUM DEFEAT/AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/USA RAISING RATE

USA/JAPAN YEN 116.38 UP 0.299(Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/SIGNALS U TURN WITH INCREASED NEGATIVITY IN NIRP/JAPAN OUT OF WEAPONS TO FIGHT ECONOMIC DISASTER/KURODA:  HELICOPTER MONEY  ON THE TABLE AND DECISION ON SEPT 21 DISAPPOINTS WITH STIMULUS/OPERATION REVERSE TWIST

GBP/USA 1.2116 DOWN .0052 (Brexit by March 201/UK government loses case/parliament must vote)

USA/CAN 1.3250 UP .0035 (CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT FROM EU)

Early THIS WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 83 basis points, trading now WELL BELOW the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.0531; Europe is still reacting to Gr Britain BREXIT,deflation, announcements of massive stimulation (QE), a proxy middle east war, and the ramifications of a default at the Austrian Hypo bank, an imminent default of Greece, Glencore, Nysmark and the Ukraine, along with rising peripheral bond yield further stimulation as the EU is moving more into NIRP, and now the Italian referendum defeat AND NOW THE ECB TAPERING OF ITS PURCHASES/ THE USA’S NON tightening by FAILING TO RAISE THEIR INTEREST RATE AND NOW THE HUGE PROBLEMS FACING TOO BIG TO FAIL DEUTSCHE BANK + THE ELECTION OF TRUMP IN THE USA+ AND TODAY MONTE DEI PASCHI NATIONALIZATION / Last night the Shanghai composite CLOSED DOWN 24.92 or 0.79%     / Hang Sang  CLOSED UP 190.50 POINTS OR 0.84%  /AUSTRALIA  CLOSED UP 0.18%  / EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED 

We are seeing that the 3 major global carry trades are being unwound. The BIGGY is the first one;

1. the total dollar global short is 9 trillion USA and as such we are now witnessing a sea of red blood on the streets as derivatives blow up with the massive rise in the rise in the dollar against all paper currencies and especially with the fall of the yuan carry trade. The emerging market which house close to 50% of the 9 trillion dollar short is feeling the massive pain as their debt is quite unmanageable.

2, the Nikkei average vs gold carry trade ( NIKKEI blowing up and the yen carry trade HAS BLOWN up/and now NIRP)

3. Short Swiss franc/long assets blew up ( Eastern European housing/Nikkei etc.

These massive carry trades are terribly offside as they are being unwound. It is causing global deflation ( we are at debt saturation already) as the world reacts to lack of demand and a scarcity of debt collateral. Bourses around the globe are reacting in kind to these events as well as the potential for a GREXIT>

The NIKKEI: this WEDNESDAY morning CLOSED UP 63.23 OR .33% 

Trading from Europe and Asia:
1. Europe stocks ALL MIXED 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / : Hang Sang CLOSED UP 190.50 OR 0.84%  Shanghai CLOSED DOWN 24.92 POINTS OR 0.79%   / Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.18% /Nikkei (Japan)CLOSED UP 63.23 OR .33%  /  INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: $1187.75

silver:$16.71

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.376% !!! PAR IN POINTS from TUESDAY night in basis points and it is trading JUST BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%. THE RISE IN YIELD WITH THIS SPEED IS FRIGHTENING

 The 30 yr bond yield  2.965, DOWN 1 IN BASIS POINTS  from TUESDAY night.

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 102.43 UP 39 CENT(S) from TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

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And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.97% DOWN 8  in basis point yield from TUESDAY  (does not buy the rally)

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.058% DOWN 6/10  in   basis point yield from TUESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD:1.414%  DOWN 6  IN basis point yield from  TUESDAY (this is totally nuts!!/

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.866  DOWN 3  in basis point yield from TUESDAY 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 46 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: +.328% UP 4 IN  BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY

END

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IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM 

Euro/USA 1.0559 DOWN .0025 (Euro DOWN 25 basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/

USA/Japan: 115.33 DOWN: 0.659(Yen UP 66 basis points/ 

Great Britain/USA 1.2160 DOWN 0.0009( POUND DOWN 9 basis points)

USA/Canada 1.3186 DOWN 0.0029(Canadian dollar  UP 29 basis points AS OIL ROSE TO $52.43

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This afternoon, the Euro was DOWN by 25 basis points to trade at 1.0559

The Yen ROSE to 115.33 for a GAIN of 66 basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE  /OPERATION REVERSE TWIST ANNOUNCED SEPT 21.2016

The POUND FELL 9  basis points, trading at 1.2160/

The Canadian dollar ROSE by 5 basis points to 1.3186,  WITH WTI OIL RISING TO :  $52.43

The USA/Yuan closed at 6.9364
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.058% DOWN 3/5 IN  BASIS POINTS / yield/ 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 2 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 2.359% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic  USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.950 DOWN 3  in basis points on the day /

Your closing USA dollar index, 102.17 UP 13 CENT(S)  ON THE DAY/1.00 PM 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 1:00 PM EST

London:  CLOSED UP 15.02 OR .21% 
German Dax :CLOSED UP 62.87 POINTS OR 0.54%
Paris Cac  CLOSED up 0.48 OR 0.01%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 43.40 POINTS OR 0.46%
Italian MIB: CLOSED up 62.69 POINTS OR 0.32%

The Dow was UP 95.47 POINTS OR .48% 4 PM EST

NASDAQ WAS UP 11.83 POINTS OR .21%  4.00 PM EST
WTI Oil price;  52.43 at 1:00 pm; 

Brent Oil: 55.37  1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE CROSS:  59.97 (ROUBLE UP 18/100 roubles from YESTERDAY)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES TO +0.328%  FOR THE 10 YR BOND  1:30 EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today

Closing Price for Oil, 5 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 5 PM:$52.41

BRENT: $55.24

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.376%  (ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 2.70% BLOWS UP THE GLOBE)

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.956%

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS:  1.0582 down .0004

USA/JAPANESE YEN:115.36  down 0.620

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 101.71  DOWN 33  cents (BREAKS AGAIN HUGE resistance at 101.80)

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.2211 : UP 42  BASIS POINTS.

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: +.328%

 

END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM

Dollar Dumped, Stocks Trump’d, Gold Jumped

 

Today in the dollar…

 

It’s not the economy, stupid…

 

It’s Trump!

 

Biotechs/Pharma was slapped lower…ending the record win streak…

 

Algos desperately ripped The Dow to run yesterday’s high stops in an effort to crack 20k… but failed.. then as the day ended VIX was monkey-hammered lower in desperation…

 

Stocks scrambled back to green after the Trumpnado struck… Nasdaq record high again, Trannies rallied over 1%! – NOTE the rally startd right after Europe closed… AGAIN!

 

7th day in a row of positive closes for Nasdaq, 4th day of record highs…

 

Utilities outperformed post-Trump, healthcare lagged…

 

Brazil cut rates by 75bps and sent Brazil ETF higher (filling the gap from the election)

 

Yields tumbled as Trump spoke and were pushed lower on a very strong 10Y auction but everything bounced back in the late afternoon…but bonds ended the day unchanged.

 

The Dollar was clubbed like a baby seal as Trump disappointed those looking for details… hit 2017 lows then bounced to unch for 2017 before fading…

 

All the majors surged against the greenback as Trump spoke (and said nothing) but we note USDJPY was really moving…

 

The Mexican Peso was the poster-child of Trumpian chaos as it crashed to record lows, ripped on Dollar’s drop, then collapsed back down on trade comments, then rallied again… – still closed at record lows…

 

As the dollar plunged, crude ripped higher – totally ignoring the spike in production and inventories…

 

Gold spiked towards $1200 as the dollar faded…

end

 

Details missing from the Trump press conference which sends the Dow lower including pharmaceutical stocks, gold higher

(courtesy zero hedge)

Trump Presser Ends, Details Underwhelm: Gold Gains As Dollar, Dow, & Drug Stocks Drop

The USD Index whipsawed higher and lower as Trump teased and un-teased comments on trade policies, only to tumble to the day’s lows by the end as details were missing and thus disappointed…

This rippled through risk assets, leaving gold higher, stocks lower, peso higher (after initial crashing), but idiocyncratic issues slammed drug stocks, and aircraft makers.

 

The Biotech battering is most notable so far… after Trump accused them of “getting away with murder” on pricing…

 

Bloomberg notes a few additional key takeaways from today’s news conference:

  • President-elect Donald Trump for the first time conceded Russia was responsible for the hacking of the Democratic National Committee and Clinton aide Jon Podesta
  • Trump categorically denies allegations included in an unsubstantiated report released by BuzzFeed detailing compromising material allegedly gathered by Russian intelligence
  • Trump announces that his sons will run his businesses during his time in the White House, that the organization will not conduct new business abroad, and the appointment of an ethics review officer to prevent conflicts
  • bill to repeal and replace Obamacare simultaneously will be introduced by the White House once HHS Secretary nominee Tom Price is confirmed, Trump says.
  • A Supreme Court nomination will come within two weeks of Trump taking office.
end
The press conference caused gold to skyrocket and the dollar to tumble:
(courtesy zero hedge)

Gold Nears $1200 As The Dollar Tumbles To 2017 Lows

Gold is now up almost 4% year-to-date, approaching $1200 – 8 week-highs…

As the USD Index plunges to 2017 lows after Trump’s disappointing press conference…

 end
Due to higher rates and also the fact that the central banks are paying banks to hold reserves, the Fed only remitted 92 billion back to the treasury in 2016, its lowest level in 3 yrs.
(courtesy zero hedge)

Fed Remits Only $92 Billion To Treasury In 2016, Lowest Since 2013

Well that is all for today

I will see you tomorrow night

Harvey

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