July 13/Gold down $1.50/silver is down 18 cents/again at the silver comex the amount standing increases by 245,000 oz/total silver standing: 14.560 million oz/Republicans introduce a new healthcare bill but it will go nowhere/ USA runs a surprising deficit of $429 billion due to expenditures with respect to student loans and housing loans/

GOLD: $1218.30  DOWN $1.50

Silver: $15.75  DOWN 18  cent(s)

Closing access prices:

Gold $1217.50

silver: $15.72

SHANGHAI GOLD FIX:  FIRST FIX  10 15 PM EST  (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SECOND FIX:  2:15 AM EST  (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1233.33 DOLLARS PER OZ

NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME:  $1221.90

PREMIUM FIRST FIX:  $11.43

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1232.90

NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1222.85

Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$10.05

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX:  5:30 am est  $1221.40

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1222.20  

LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX  10 AM: $1218.90

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. $1219.30

For comex gold:

JULY/

NOTICES FILINGS TODAY FOR APRIL CONTRACT MONTH:  52 NOTICE(S) FOR 5200  OZ.

TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 115 FOR 11500 OZ    (.3576 TONNES)

For silver:

JULY

 50 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR

250,000  OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 2807 for 14,035,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

end

 

I HAVE BEEN TOLD TONIGHT AT THE CANADIAN ROYAL MINT HAS RUN OUT OF 10 OZ AND 100 OZ BARS OF SILVER AND WILL NOT BE BACK IN PRODUCTION UNTIL LATE AUGUST.  SILVER IS ALSO DEEPLY BACKWARD IN PRICE JULY/SEPT IN LONDON FORWARDS.

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total open interest ROSE BY 887 contract(s) UP to 208,479 WITH THE  RISE IN PRICE THAT SILVER TOOK WITH YESTERDAY’S TRADING (UP 15 CENT(S). WITH THE DATA TODAY, THE ONLY EXPLANATION IS THE COMMERCIALS CONTINUED AS THE SUPPLIER OF THE SHORT PAPER AND THE SPECULATORS WENT TO THE LONG SIDE GOBBLING UP THE PAPER.

 In ounces, the OI is still represented by just OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e.  1.042 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 149% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MAY MONTH/ THEY FILED: 50 NOTICE(S) FOR 250,000  OZ OF SILVER

In gold, the total comex gold  ROSE BY A MONSTROUS 15,769 CONTRACTS WITH THE  RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD  ($4.20 with YESTERDAY’S TRADING). The total gold OI stands at 491,438 contracts. AGAIN, THE COMMERCIALS SUPPLIED THE SHORT PAPER TO WHICH THE SPECULATORS WENT ON A RAMPAGE ON THE LONG SIDE. 

we had 52 notice(s) filed upon for 5200 oz of gold.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD:

Today no  changes in tonnes of gold at the GLD/

Inventory rests tonight: 832.39 tonnes

.

SLV

Today: : , WE HAD NO CHANGES AT THE SLV/

INVENTORY RESTS AT 349.012 MILLION OZ

end

.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in silver  ROSE BY  887 contracts  UP TO 208,479 (AND now A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET ON FRIDAY/APRIL 21/2017 AT 234,787), WITH THE  RISE IN PRICE FOR SILVER WITH YESTERDAY’S TRADING  (UP 15 CENTS ).We  SEEM TO HAVE LOST NOBODY. HOWEVER THE OI DID NOT RUN UP IN PERCENTAGE TERMS AS HIGH AS GOLD. THE COMMERCIALS WERE TIMID WITH SECOND THOUGHTS IN SUPPLYING THE PAPER. 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

 

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY:  Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late WEDNESDAY night/THURSDAY morning: Shanghai closed UP 20.62 POINTS OR 0.64%   / /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 302.53 POINTS OR 1.16% The Nikkei closed UP 1.43 POINTS OR 0.01%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.07%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.7840/Oil UP to 45.31 dollars per barrel for WTI and 47.47 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL IN THE GREEN,, Offshore yuan trades  6.7832 yuan to the dollar vs 6.7840 for onshore yuan. NOW THE OFFSHORE IS A TOUCH STRONGER  TO THE ONSHORE YUAN/ ONSHORE YUAN  STRONGER (TO THE DOLLAR)  AND THE OFFSHORE YUAN IS MUCH STRONGER TO THE DOLLAR AND THIS IS COUPLED WITH THE STRONGER DOLLAR. CHINA IS STILL NOT  HAPPY

3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA

i)NORTH KOREA

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

c) REPORT ON CHINA

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)QATAR

Qatar has airlifted 165 cows so its citizens can obtain milk as the embargo is certainly having an effect

 

( zero hedge)

Erdogan could face arrest in Sweden for war crimes.  Five members of the Swedish parliament officially accused the Turkish President of genocide against the Turkish Kurds.

( zerohedge)

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

An excellent commentary from Brandon Smith as he talks about the new world order that is coming. He comments that Germany is facing/joining Russia and China

( Brandon Smith/Alt-Media.com)

CANADA/IMF
The IMF warns Canada one day after zero hedge’s warning.  And they warn not to raise rates as they see a crisis around the corner
( zero hedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

Wall street has been funding the shale boys who responded by increasing production. The problem is that the price is falling and they are not been rewarded with juicy profits

( Nick Cunningham/OilPrice.com

8. EMERGING MARKET

9.   PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)German police arrest suspects in the theft of that massive 100 kg gold coin

( zero hedge)

ii)nobody is expecting any reform from the Republicans

( Henry/Reuters/GATA)

iii)This is wild:  the crooked CEO of the CME Duffy claims that gold is wildly underpriced.  He feels it should be around 5,000 per oz and he does not know how this is happening

 

( TF Metals/.CME/GATA/Chris Powell)

iv)Bitcoin;s acceptance among retailers is very low

 

(Katz/Bloomberg/GATA)

 

10. USA Stories

i)The following is extremely important.  There is a group of 4 Republican senators who will refuse to vote positive for any deal that retains Obamacare.  Under the leadership of liberal Rand Paul, they want complete repeal and that is not going to happen.  Actually the Republicans will do nothing from this point forward, including tax reform etc.  When the debt ceiling will not be allowed to increase, that is when the fun begins; that will be in October.

( zero hedge)

ii)We now have a new Healthcare bill and it will go nowhere

( zero hedge)

iii)This is not what Janet wants:  the so called transitory core producer price inflation just fell below the 2% Fed mandate

( zero hedge)

iv)An excellent commentary on the Illinois budget and how Illinois will fail:

( Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

v)Trouble continues  in the USA with considerable layoffs.  It seems that manufacturing has reached its peak

( Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

vi)Moody’s follows S and P by downgrading the State Capital of Connecticut, Hartford

to junk.

( zero hedge)

( zerohedge)

viii)Michael Snyder discusses the huge spending and debt of the USA government

(courtesy Michael Snyder)

Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest ROSE BY A MONSTROUS 15,769 CONTRACTS up to an OI level of 491,438 WITH THE  RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($4.20 with YESTERDAY’S trading). THE COMMERCIALS SUPPLIED THE SHORT PAPER TO WHICH THE SPECULATORS WENT ON A RAMPAGE ON THE LONG SIDE.THERE WAS NO SIGN OF ANY COMMERCIAL SHORT COVERING.

We are now in the contract month of JULY and it is one of the POORER delivery months  of the year. .

The non active July contract GAINED 2 contract(s) to stand at 85 contracts. We had only 0 notices filed YESTERDAY morning, so we GAINED 2 contracts or an additional 200 oz will stand in this non active month of July.  Thus 0 EFP notices were given which gives the long holder a fiat bonus plus a futures contract for delivery and most likely these are London based forwards.  The contracts are private so we do not get to see all the particulars. The next big active month is August and here the OI LOST 159 contracts DOWN to 264,461, as the bankers trying to keep this month down to manageable size. The next non active contract month is September and here they GAINED another 19 contracts to stand at 481. The next active delivery month is October and here we gained 928 contracts up to 21,632.  October is the poorest of the active gold delivery months as most players move right to December.

We had 52 notice(s) filed upon today for 5200 oz

For those keeping score: in the upcoming front delivery month of August:

On July 11.2016:  open interest for the front month: 402,989 contracts compared to July 11.2017:   264,461.

However last yr at this time we had a record OI in gold at 655,000 contract for the entire complex.

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And now for the wild silver comex results.  Total silver OI  ROSE BY 887 contracts FROM  207,592 UP TO 208,479 WITH YESTERDAY’S   15 CENT GAIN (AND CONSTANT TORMENT THESE PAST FEW WEEKS). OUR BANKER FRIENDS ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO COVER THEIR SHORTS IN SILVER BUT AS YOU CAN SEE  THEY HAVE NOT BEEN AS SUCCESSFUL AS THEY WOULD HAVE LIKED.THE COMMERCIALS TODAY WERE ONLY ON THE SHORT SIDE AND COVERED NO SHORTS. THE SPECULATORS WERE ONLY ON THE LONG SIDE TODAY. .
THE OTHER BIG NEWS IS THE FACT THAT AS WE ENTERED FIRST DAY NOTICE AND BEYOND  WE HARDLY HAD ANY OBLITERATION OF OPEN INTEREST. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME THIS HAS HAPPENED IN OVER 2 YEARS.

We are now in the next big active month will be July and here the OI LOST 96 contracts DOWN to 151. We had 145 notices served  yesterday so we gained 49 notices or an additional  245,000 oz will stand at the comex, and 0 EFP contracts were issued which entitles them to receive a fiat bonus and a future delivery contract (which no doubt is a London based forward).

The month of August, a non active month LOST 34 contracts to stand at 734.  The next big active delivery month for silver will be September and here the OI already GAINED ANOTHER 1143 contracts UP to 157,068.

The line in the sand is $18.50 for silver and again it has been defended by the criminal bankers.  Once this level is pierced, the monstrous billion oz of silver shorts will blow up. The bankers are defending the Alamo with their last stand at the $18.50 mark. THE NEW RECORD HIGH IN OPEN INTEREST WAS SET FRIDAY APRIL 21/2017 AT:  234,787.

As for the July contracts:

Initial amount that stood for silver for the July 2016 contract:  14.785 million  oz

Final standing JULY 2016:  12.370 million with the difference being EFP’s taking delivery in London.  Thus we are basically on par to what happened a year ago as to the total amount of silver ounces standing.

We had 50 notice(s) filed for 250,000 oz for the June 2017 contract

VOLUMES: for the gold comex

Today the estimated volume was 121,136 contracts which is fair/

Yesterday’s confirmed volume was 300,784 contracts  which is excellent

volumes on gold are STILL HIGHER THAN NORMAL!

Initial standings for JULY
 July 13/2017.
Inventory movements not available today due to the length of time to cook the books
Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz   nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz  
8037.500 oz
Scotia
250 kilobars
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL  oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz 
5040.455 oz
No of oz served (contracts) today
 
52 notice(s)
5200 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
33 contracts
3300 oz
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
115 notices
11500 oz
.3576 tonnes
Total accumulative withdrawals  of gold from the Dealers inventory this month   NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month   28,599.8 oz
Today we HAD  0 kilobar transaction(s)/ 
We had 0 deposit into the dealer:
total dealer deposits: NIL oz
We had NIL dealer withdrawals:
total dealer withdrawals:  NIL oz
we had no dealer deposits:
total dealer deposits:  nil oz
we had 0  customer deposit(s):
 i
total customer deposits; nil  oz
We had 1 customer withdrawal(s)
i) Out of Scotia:  8037.500 oz
total customer withdrawals;  8037.500 oz
 we had 0 adjustment(s):
 
For JULY:

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 52 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 52  contract(s)  of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

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To calculate the initial total number of gold ounces standing for the JULY. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (115) x 100 oz or 11,500 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE (85 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (52) x 100 oz per contract equals 14,800  oz, the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of JULY.
 
Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY contract month:
No of notices served so far (115) x 100 oz  or ounces + {(85)OI for the front month  minus the number of  notices served upon today (52) x 100 oz which equals 14,800 oz standing in this  active delivery month of JULY  (0.4603 tonnes)
We GAINED 2 contracts or AN ADDITIONAL 200 oz will stand and 0 EFP contracts were issued as described as above.
.
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Total dealer inventory 696,326.154 or 21.656 tonnes  (dealer gold continues to disappear)
Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) = 8,522191.06 or 265.07 tonnes 
 
Over a year ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today the total inventory rests at 265.07 tonnes for a  loss of 38  tonnes over that period.  Since August 8/2016 we have lost 89 tonnes leaving the comex. However I am including kilobar transactions and they are very suspect at best
I have a sneaky feeling that these withdrawals of gold in kilobars are being used in the hypothecating process  and are being used in the raiding of gold!

The gold comex is an absolute fraud.  The use of kilobars and exact weights makes the data totally absurd and fraudulent! To me, the only thing that makes sense is the fact that “kilobars: are entries of hypothecated gold sent to other jurisdictions so that they will not be short with their underwritten derivatives in that jurisdiction.  This would be similar to the rehypothecated gold used by Jon Corzine at MF Global.
 
IN THE LAST 11 MONTHS  86 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.
end
And now for silver
Again inventory levels not available today as the CME had extreme trouble cooking the books
AND NOW THE June DELIVERY MONTH
 
JULY INITIAL standings
 July 13 2017
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory  nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
64,357.740 oz
JPMorgan
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil  oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory 
nil oz CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)
50 CONTRACT(S)
(250,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
101 contracts
( 505,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 2807 contracts (14,035,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month  NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal  of silver from the Customer inventory this month 577,841.9 oz
today, we had  0 deposit(s) into the dealer account:
total dealer deposit: nil   oz
we had Nil dealer withdrawals:
total dealer withdrawals: nil oz
we had 1 customer withdrawal(s):
 i) Out of JPMorgan:  64,357.740 oz
TOTAL CUSTOMER WITHDRAWALS:   1000.85 oz
We had 0 Customer deposit(s):
***deposits into JPMorgan have now stopped again
In the month of March and February, JPMorgan stopped (received) almost all of the comex silver contracts.
why is JPMorgan bringing in so much silver??? why is this not criminal in that they are also the massive short in silver
total customer deposits: nil oz
 
 we had n/a adjustment(s)
The total number of notices filed today for the JULY. contract month is represented by 50 contract(s) for 250,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 2807 x 5,000 oz  = 14,035,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY (151) and the number of notices served upon today (52) x 5000 oz equals the number of ounces standing
 

 

.
 
Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JULY contract month:  2807 (notices served so far)x 5000 oz  + OI for front month of JULY.(151 ) -number of notices served upon today (52)x 5000 oz  equals  14,540,000 oz  of silver standing for the JULY contract month.
We  gained 49 contracts for an additional 245,000 oz  that will stand at the comex and 0 EFP’s were issued. THE DELIVERY CYCLE IN JULY IS BEHAVING EXACTLY LIKE THE PREVIOUS MONTHS OF MAY, AND JUNE AS THE AMOUNT STANDING INCREASES EVERY SINGLE DAY AND ALSO SURPASSED WHAT WAS STANDING FOR METAL ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.
 
 
 
 
Volumes: for silver comex
Today the estimated volume was 38,581 which is good
YESTERDAY’s  confirmed volume was 102,825 contracts which is  HUGE
YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 102,825 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO 514 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OR 74% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER EX CHINA EX RUSSIA). IN OUR HEARINGS THE COMMISSIONERS STRESSED THAT THE OPEN INTEREST SHOULD BE AROUND 3% OF THE MARKET.
 
Total dealer silver:  38.502 million (close to record low inventory  
Total number of dealer and customer silver:   212.961 million oz
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017  with the price at that day at  $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
end

NPV for Sprott and Central Fund of Canada

1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative 7.3 percent to NAV usa funds and Negative 7.3% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!! 
Percentage of fund in gold 62.8%
Percentage of fund in silver:37.1%
cash .+0.1%( July 13/2017) 
 THE PREMIUM IN SILVER ON THE SPROTT FUNDS IS VERY TELLING
2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): STOCK   NAV  RISES TO +1.26% (July 13/2017) 
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.44% to NAV  (July 13/2017 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back  into POSITIVE territory at +1.26/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ territory at -0.44%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail  but being rescued by Sprott.

Sprott’s hostile 3.1 billion bid to take over Central Fund of Canada

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

Sprott makes hostile $3.1 billion bid for Central Fund of Canada

 Section: Daily Dispatches

From the Canadian Press
via Canadian Broadcasting Corp. News, Toronto
Wednesday, March 8, 2017

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/sprott-takeover-bid-central-fund-c…

Toronto-based Sprott Inc. said Wednesday it’s making an all-share hostile takeover bid worth $3.1 billion US for rival bullion holder Central Fund of Canada Ltd.

The money-management firm has filed an application with the Court of Queen’s Bench of Alberta seeking to allow shareholders of Calgary-based Central Fund to swap their shares for ones in a newly-formed trust that would be substantially similar to Sprott’s existing precious metal holding entities.

The company is going through the courts after its efforts to strike a friendly deal were rebuffed by the Spicer family that controls Central Fund, said Sprott spokesman Glen Williams.

“They weren’t interested in having those discussions,” Williams said.

 Sprott is using the courts to try to give holders of the 252 million non-voting class A shares a say in takeover bids, which Central Fund explicitly states they have no right to participate in. That voting right is reserved for the 40,000 common shares outstanding, which the family of J.C. Stefan Spicer, chairman and CEO of Central Fund, control.

If successful through the courts, Sprott would then need the support of two-thirds of shareholder votes to close the takeover deal, but there’s no guarantee they will make it that far.

“It is unusual to go this route,” said Williams. “There’s no specific precedent where this has worked.”

Sprott did have success last year in taking over Central GoldTrust, a similar fund that was controlled by the Spicer family, after securing support from more than 96 percent of shareholder votes cast.

The firm says Central Fund’s shares are trading at a discount to net asset value and a takeover by Sprott could unlock US$304 million in shareholder value.

Central Fund did not have any immediate comment on the unsolicited offer. Williams said Sprott had not yet heard from Central Fund on the proposal but that some shareholders had already contacted them to voice their support.

Sprott’s existing precious metal holding companies are designed to allow investors to own gold and other metals without having to worry about taking care of the physical bullion.

end

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD

July 13/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 832.39 tonnes

JULY 12/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 832.39 tonnes

July 11/strange!@! we had a big withdrawal of 2.96 tonnes despite gold’s advance today/inventory rests tonight at 832.39 tonnes

July 10/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 835.35 tonnes

July 7/a massive withdrawal of 5.32 tonnes of paper gold were removed and this was used in the attack today/inventory rests at 835.35 tonnes

July 6/no changes in tonnage at the GLD/Inventory rests at 840.67 tonnes

July 5/A MASSIVE 5.62 TONNES OF GOLD LEFT THE GLD AND NO DOUBT WAS USED IN THE RAID THIS MORNING/INVENTORY REST

July 3/ A MASSIVE 7.37 TONNES OF GOLD LEAVE THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.29 TONNES

June 30/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 853.66 tonnes

June 29/no change in inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 853.66 tonnes

June 28/no change in inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 853.66 tonnes

June 27.2017/a deposit of 2.64 tonnes into the GLD/inventory rests at 853.66 tonnes

June 26/a withdrawal of 2.66 tonnes from the GLD and this gold no doubt was part of the raid/Inventory rests at 851.02

June 23/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 853.68 tonnes

June 22/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 853.68 tonnes

June 21/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 853.68 tonnes

June 20/no  change in gold inventory at the GLD//Inventory rests at 853.68 tonnes

June 19/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 853.68 TONNES

June 16/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 853.68 tonnes

June 15/ a monstrous “paper” withdrawal of 13.32 tonnes/Inventory rests at 853.68 tonnes

June 14./NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 867.00 TONNES

June 13. No change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 867.00 tonnes

June 12/No change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 867.00 tonnes

June 9/no change in inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 867.00 tonnes

June 8/AN ADDITION OF 3.07 TONNES OF GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 867.00 TONNES

June 7 a huge change in inventory/a deposit of 13.93 tonnes/inventory rests at 864.93 tonnes

June 6/ no changes in inventory at the GLD/Inventory remains at 851.00 tonnes

June 5.2017/no changes at the GLD/Inventory remain at 851.00 tonnes

June 2/2017/a huge deposit of 3.55 tonnes of gold into the GLD/Inventory rests at 851.00 tonnes

June 1/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 847.45 TONNES

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July 13 /2017/ Inventory rests tonight at 832.39 tonnes
*IN LAST 189 TRADING DAYS: 114.74 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 130 TRADING DAYS: A NET  12.69 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO GLD INVENTORY.
*FROM FEB 1/2017: A NET  25.81 TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED.

end

Now the SLV Inventory

July 13/no change in silver inventory/inventory at the SLV rests at 349.012 million oz/

JULY 12/another massive 1.986 million oz of silver added into the SLV/inventory rests at 349.012 million oz/the last 3 days saw 7.281 million oz added into the SV

July 11/ANOTHER MASSIVE INCREASE OF 2.364 MILLION OZ into the SLV inventory/inventory rests at 347.026 million oz

July 10/ A HUGE INCREASE OF 2.931 MILLION OZ OF SILVER DESPITE THE EARLY HIT ON SILVER THIS MORNING/INVENTORY RESTS AT 344.662 MILLION OZ.

July 7/Strange: no change in inventory (compare that with gold) Inventory rests at 341.731 million oz

July 6/ANOTHER MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.126 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 341.731 MILLION OZ.

July 5/STRANGE! NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 339.605 MILLION OZ

July 3/strange! with the huge whacking of silver we got an increase of 379,000 oz into inventory.

June 30/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 339.226 million oz

June 29/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 339.226 million oz/

June 28/ a small withdrawal of 662,000 oz form the SLV/Inventory rests at 339.226 million oz/

June 27/no change in the silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 339.888 million oz/

June 26/no change in the silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 339.888 million oz/

June 23/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 339.888 million oz

June 22/ a big change; a huge deposit of 2.175 million oz into the SLV/Inventory rests at 339.888 million oz

June 21/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 337.713 million oz

June 20/a deposit of 1.513 million oz/inventory rests at 337.713 million oz/.

June 19/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 336.200 MILLION OZ

June 16/no changes in inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 336.200 million oz

June 15/ a massive “paper withdrawal” of 3.405 million oz of silver/Inventory rests at 336.200 million oz/

June 14/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 339.605 MILLION OZ/

June 13/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 339.605 million oz

June 12/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 339.605 million oz/

June 9/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 339.605 million oz/

June 8/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 339.605 MILLION OZ/

June 7/no change in inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 339.605 million oz/

June 6/no change in inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 339.605 million oz.

June 5/a huge change at the SLV/a withdrawal of 1.371 million oz /inventory rests at 339.605 million oz/

June 2/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 340.976 million oz/

June 1/NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 340.976 MILLION OZ

July 13.2017:
 Inventory 349.012  million oz
end
  • 6 Month MM GOFO

    Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration

    + 1.16%
  • 12 Month MM GOFO
    + 1.45%
  • 30 day trend

end

Here is a review of the 3 latest comex waterfall (whacks) on gold and silver not including the current one we are undergoing.  I have taken the nadir of the gold price before it started to rise again and compared it to OI in both gold and silver with the OPEN INTEREST.  The OI readings are the following day but we are always one day behind so this compares exactly to the nadir price.
First waterfall ended Oct 6 2016/ Nadir price of gold at that date Oct 6 2016 : $1254.70 / OI for gold Oct 7/2016: 511,340//OI for silver/Oct 7.2016: 194,811
Second waterfall ended Dec 15.2016:Nadir Price of gold Dec 15.2016:      $1128.20              //OI for gold Dec 16/2016 401,798// OI for silver: Dec 16/16 161,570
Third waterfall ended May 10/2017: Nadir Price of gold May 10 2016:   $1220.95              //  OI for gold May 11: 425,252//  OI for silver May 11/17: 199,826
and for comparison while we are undergoing another waterfall these past several weeks
 Today’s price of gold $1220.00                                                                                                    OI for gold today: 491,438//Oi for silver  208,479
The first waterfall corresponds to a silver price of $17.30 on Oct 6
The second waterfall corresponds to a silver price of $15.90 on Dec 15
The third waterfall corresponds to a silver price of $17.37 on May 10
and today:  silver price of $15.95
Since the bottom of the second waterfall the price of gold at its nadir is about the same ($1220 and $1226), but the OI for gold is much higher along with silver OI also much higher. (425,252 and 491,438 OI for gold) accompanying  199,826 and 208,479 for silver)
It seems the data suggests power manipulation to control the price through paper!
end

Major gold/silver trading/commentaries for THURSDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.

GOLD/SILVER

Video – “Gold Should Probably Be $5000” – CME Chairman

Video – “Gold Should Probably Be $5000” – CME Chairman Duffy

– Fed has caused “frustration” and “confusion” in market place
– “If you adjust for inflation, you should have gold somewhere around 2 to 3,000 per ounce”
– “If you look at what is going on the world, gold should probably be $5,000 to $6,000 per ounce”
– “Lot of us are so jaded about what is going on in the world, it is like yesterday’s newspaper in five minutes”
– “One day you will not be able to dismiss them and you will see a huge move in the precious metals”
– Gold “coins are probably of more value than anything else” – CME President Duffy on Bloomberg in 2013


Watch CME Chairman Duffy on markets and gold on Fox Business

Related Content
Gold “Coins Are Probably Of More Value Than Anything Else” – CME President

“They Don’t Want Certificates, They Want the Real Product” – CME President on Gold

Gold and Silver Bullion – News and Commentary

Gold stretches streak of gains to a third session (MarketWatch.com)

Dollar dips after Yellen, loonie near 13-month high on BOC rate hike (Reuters.com)

Platinum demand faces massive impact from electric car growth: IPMI (Reuters.com)

U.S. Stocks, Bonds Jump on Go-Slow Fed; Oil Climbs (Bloomberg.com)

Janet Yellen Says Low Inflation Still Major Source of Uncertainty (Bloomberg.com)

Gold should probably be $5000-6000 per ounce: CME Group Chairman (FoxBusiness.com)

This hammered precious metal could surge 10 percent within months: Analyst (CNBC.com)

BoE regulator warns UK banks on accounting practices (FinancialTimes)

Credit market a bigger systemic risk than during 2008 crisis: Bank of England (Reuters.com)

Carillion’s lesson for investors: pay attention to short-sellers (MoneySeek.com)

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

13 Jul: USD 1,221.40, GBP 944.51 & EUR 1,071.05 per ounce
12 Jul: USD 1,219.40, GBP 947.60 & EUR 1,064.29 per ounce
11 Jul: USD 1,211.90, GBP 938.98 & EUR 1,063.68 per ounce
10 Jul: USD 1,207.55, GBP 938.63 & EUR 1,060.11 per ounce
07 Jul: USD 1,220.40, GBP 944.47 & EUR 1,068.95 per ounce
06 Jul: USD 1,224.30, GBP 946.14 & EUR 1,077.51 per ounce
05 Jul: USD 1,221.90, GBP 945.87 & EUR 1,078.45 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

13 Jul: USD 15.95, GBP 12.34 & EUR 14.00 per ounce
12 Jul: USD 15.83, GBP 12.31 & EUR 13.82 per ounce
11 Jul: USD 15.51, GBP 12.02 & EUR 13.61 per ounce
10 Jul: USD 15.22, GBP 11.82 & EUR 13.36 per ounce
07 Jul: USD 15.84, GBP 12.29 & EUR 13.88 per ounce
06 Jul: USD 16.01, GBP 12.36 & EUR 14.09 per ounce
05 Jul: USD 15.95, GBP 12.36 & EUR 14.09 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– India Gold Imports Surge To 5 Year High – 220 Tons In May Alone
– “Silver’s Plunge Is Nearing Completion”
– China, Russia Alliance Deepens Against American Overstretch
– Silver Prices Bounce Higher After Futures Manipulated 7% Lower In Minute
– Precious Metals Are “Best Defence” Against Bail-ins In Economic Crisis
– Buy Gold Near $1,200 “As Insurance” – UBS Wealth
– UK House Prices ‘On Brink’ Of Massive 40% Collapse
– Gold Up 8% In First Half 2017; Builds On 8.5% Gain In 2016
– Pensions Timebomb In America – “National Crisis” Cometh
– London Property Bubble Bursting? UK In Unchartered Territory On Brexit and Election Mess
– Shrinkflation – Real Inflation Much Higher Than Reported
– Goldman, Citi Turn Positive On Gold – Despite “Mysterious” Flash Crash
– Worst Crash In Our Lifetime Coming – Jim Rogers

END

 

German police arrest suspects in the theft of that massive 100 kg gold coin

 

(courtesy zero hedge)

German Police Arrest Suspects In Theft Of Massive 100 Kilogram Gold Coin

German special commandos have arrested several people in connection with the theft of a large gold coin that was stolen from the Bade museum in Berlin back in March in a brazen theft that shocked the public.

While Reuters didn’t say whether police recovered the coin – there was some speculation that the thieves would’ve melted it down for the gold – photographs did show police leading away a suspect, whose face was covered to hide his identity. The arrests were made in the Neukoelln area of Berlin

“We are at the moment conducting searches and executing arrest warrants in several places in Berlin concerning the break in at the Bode museum in March,” said Berlin police.

The brazen theft involved entering through a museum window, possibly with the use of a ladder then making off with the 100 kilogram (equal to about 220 pounds) gold coin, according to Reuters.

The museum says the coin, known as “Big Maple Leaf,” is in the Guinness Book of Records for its purity of 999.99/1000 gold. It has a portrait of Queen Elizabeth II on one side and maple leaves on the other, and was minted by the Royal Canadian Mint.

The Canadian coin has a face value of about $1 million, but if it were melted down, the materials would be worth $4.5 million.

The coin, 53 centimeters in diameter and 3 centimeters thick, even made it into the Guinness Book of Records for its unrivalled degree of purity. It was loaned to the Bode Museum in December 2010.

During the theft, Spokesman Stefen Petersen said thieves apparently entered through a window about 3:30 a.m. Monday, broke into a cabinet where the “Big Maple Leaf” coin was kept, and escaped with it before police arrived.’

The Bode has one of the world’s largest coin collections with more than 540,000 items.

end

nobody is expecting any reform from the Republicans

(courtesy Henry/Reuters/GATA)

 

 

Is anyone still expecting reform from the Republicans?

 Section: 

JPMorgan Hires New Head of Global Government Relations

By David Henry
Reuters
Wednesday, July 12, 2017

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-jpmorgan-moves-idUSKBN19X20W?il=0

NEW YORK — JPMorgan Chase & Co. has hired a former chief of staff to majority leaders of the U.S. House of Representatives as its new head of global government relations, according to an internal memo the bank provided on Wednesday.

Tim Berry will replace Nate Gatten, who left in May after nearly nine years at the bank to become head of government relations for American Airlines.

Berry, who worked on Republican legislative agendas, will also assist JPMorgan Chief Executive Jamie Dimon in his role as chairman of the Business Roundtable, according to the memo from Peter Scher, head of corporate responsibility for JPMorgan.

end

 

This is wild:  the crooked CEO of the CME Duffy claims that gold is wildly underpriced.  He feels it should be around 5,000 per oz and he does not know how this is happening

 

(courtesy TF Metals/.CME/GATA/Chris Powell)

CME Group CEO calls gold wildly underpriced but feigns nothing to do with it

 Section: 

6:49p ET Wednesday, July 12, 2017

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The TF Metals Report calls attention to an interview given today to Fox Business News by Terry Duffy, CEO of CME Group, operator of the major futures exchanges in the United States, in which Duffy said gold is underpriced by thousands of dollars per ounce. But Duffy attributes the underpricing not to the rigging of the futures markets by the governments and central banks that receive volume discounts for their surreptitious trading in CME Group futures contracts, about which Duffy surely knows —

http://www.gata.org/node/14385

http://www.gata.org/node/14411

— but rather by the indifference of investors to political volatility around the world.

Of course any such indifference may be nurtured by government suppression of monetary metals prices on CME Group exchanges.

The TF Metals Report’s report is headlined “Must-See Video” and it’s posted here:

https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/8441/must-see-video

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

 

Bitcoin;s acceptance among retailers is very low

 

(Katz/Bloomberg/GATA)

Bitcoin’s acceptance among retailers is low and getting lower

 Section: 

By Lily Katz
Bloomberg News
Wednesday, July 12, 2017

Retailers were already skeptical about letting customers pay with bitcoin before the cryptocurrency’s price underwent an astronomical rally this year. That rapid surge hasn’t made them any more accepting. In fact, it may have done the opposite.

Bitcoin is accepted at just three of the top 500 online merchants tracked by the e-commerce news and analytics publication Internet Retailer, down from five last year, Morgan Stanley payments analyst James Faucette wrote today in a report, highlighting the “striking” discrepancy between virtually no merchant acceptance and bitcoin’s recent gains.

“Bitcoin owners are reluctant to use the cryptocurrency given its rate of appreciation, more evidence that bitcoin is more asset than currency,” Faucette said. “Way easier to trade speculatively than convince new merchants to accept the cryptocurrency.” …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-12/bitcoin-acceptance-am…

end

Gold imports into India will probably total over 1000 tonnes this year

(courtesy Lawrie Williams/Sharp’sPixley)

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Indian gold imports; High but ignore the hype!

Definitive figures for Indian gold imports for May are now in and they are close to some preliminary figures published a few weeks ago in the Indian press. They came in at 123.7 tonnes – the earlier Indian media estimates had been around 126 tonnes.

Figures for May, and probably for June too, will have been anomalously high ahead of the announcement of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) that would be applied at the beginning of July. Importers would have thus been hedging their bets against a possible high tax imposition. In the event though, the GST level came in at 3%, in line with most expectations, which meant that, with the existing 10% import duty, gold, silver, gold jewellery and processed diamonds would be taxed at 13% which is effectively only 0.5% higher than the pre-existing 12.5% made up of 10% import duty plus 2.5% in ancillary taxes. There remains hope that the government may reduce the import tax level in order to counter the growth in gold smuggling into the country, which some estimates put as high as 250 tonnes annually (worth around US$10 billion at the current gold price), but the value of imported gold is such a major element in the nation’s current account deficit that some see this as unlikely unless the foreign exchange budget can be balanced, but any changes would seem now unlikely be made before the next annual budget statement in early 2018, if then.

Above is a chart of Indian gold imports for the past five years from Nick Laird’swww.goldchartsrus.com website received via Ed Steer’s Gold and Silver Digest. As can be seen while the first five months figures are running well in excess of last year, they are still behind those for 2015, and way down on the 2013 totals although the latter slipped in the second half. The media though tends to emphasise year on year movements so in relation to last year (the ultra- weak 2016 affected by a jewellers strike and a dearth of early year buying) this year’s figures are looking particularly strong – but 2016 was anomalously low so year on year percentage comparisons should be disregarded as media hype and as largely irrelevant. The strong import figures year on year look to be continuing in June, yet are well below those for the previous four months according to preliminary estimates published in the Indian media, but this doesn’t stop reports suggesting that gold imports rose three-fold that month. Thazt may be true but that is compared with an unusually low figure a year earlier.

If the June preliminary estimates are correct, Indian gold imports in H1 will have come in at around 514 tonnes according to GFMS which, on the face of things suggests that Indian gold demand for the full year could be back above 1,000 tonnes, but now the new GST level is in place one should anticipate a fall-off in Indian imports until mid to late October when the festival season followed by the wedding season, gets into full swing. Diwali, which is a key festival for gold demand, this year falls on October 18th to 22nd, within which Dhanteras is the first day of the Diwali Festival. The period from July to end October though (Chaturmas) is considered inauspicious for Hindu weddings, but particularly auspicious dates kick in from mid-November and continue until end June the following year. Overall we suspect Indian gold imports for the full year will come in a little below 1,000 tonnes, but still well up on last year’s total of 510 tonnes. This figure has already been exceeded in H1 which gives a strong indication of the turnaround this year in Indian import, and likely demand, levels.

https://www.sharpspixley.com/articles/lawrie-williams- indian-gold-imports;-high-but-ignore-the- hype!_269553.html

-END-

 

Bill Holter interview

Attachments area

Preview YouTube video Making Madoff Blush: How You’ve Been Deceived by The New World Incestuous Banking Scheme!

Making Madoff Blush: How You’ve Been Deceived by The New World Incestuous Banking Scheme!
 end

 


Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight

 
 

1 Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/yuan  STRONGER 6.7840(REVALUATION NORTHBOUND   /OFFSHORE YUAN MOVES STRONGER TO ONSHORE AT   6.7832/ Shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 20.62 POINTS OR 0.64%  / HANG SANG CLOSED UP 302.53 POINTS OR 1.16% 

2. Nikkei closed UP 1.43 POINTS OR 0.01%   /USA: YEN FALLS TO 112.85

3. Europe stocks OPENED GREEN      ( /USA dollar index RISES TO  95.85/Euro DOWN to 1.1398

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS  TO  +.084%/ GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION    !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 114.34/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD FINALLY IN THE POSITIVE/BANK OF JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR YIELD CURVE AS THEY PURCHASE ALL BONDS TO GET TO ZERO RATE!!

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI::  45.31 and Brent: 47.48

3f Gold UP/Yen UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS  AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP for Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO  +.568%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN  to 2.245%    

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS to  : 5.37???  

3k Gold at $1220.60  silver at:15.89 (8:15 am est)   SILVER BELOW  RESISTANCE AT $18.50 

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 3/100 in  roubles/dollar) 60.01-

3m oil into the 45 dollar handle for WTI and 48 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation  (already upon us). This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/China forced to do QE!! as it lowers its yuan value to the dollar/GOT A SMALL SIZED REVALUATION NORTHBOUND 

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 112.95 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning  0.9627 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1029 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017 

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to  +0.568%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”.  Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.312% early this morning. Thirty year rate  at 2.881% /POLICY ERROR)GETTING DANGEROUSLY HIGH

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)

Global Stocks Hit New All Time High After Dovish Yellen, Strong Chinese Trade Data

The hawkish tone and global bond tantrum unleashed by central bankers at the Sintra ECB forum two weeks ago is now a distant memory, and after Janet Yellen surprised markets with an unexpectedly dovish (in the market’s interpretation) testimony yesterday, overnight global shares hit their fourth all-time high in less than a month as concerns about the tightening Fed were laid to rest, sending September and December rate hike odds sliding.

One of the Fed chief’s comments that markets latched on to was her view that bank would not need to raise U.S. rates “all that much further” to reach current low estimates of the “neutral” funds rate. Yellen’s dovish relent lifted Wall Street to a new all time high, while lowering bond yields virtually everywhere and sending the MSCI All-Country World Index to a fresh record while European shares headed for their biggest two-day gain in almost three months.

Yellen’s testimony had the added impact of diverting attention from Trump Jr.’s emails about his meeting with a Russian lawyer, which sent stocks sliding on Tuesday, though concern remains that the latest saga in Washington will likely delay, perhaps permanently, Trump’s fiscal reform efforts. The dovish Fed also sent the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index to the lowest since September while gold climbed.

“Dollar positioning is short and yesterday’s testimony just confirmed what the market believed: that the Fed is not going to be able to be as hawkish as they are suggesting,” BofA’s Athanasios Vamvakidis said in a note.

“It mostly seems to be down to Yellen,” Rabobank quantitative analyst Bas Van Geffen told Reuters. “The fact that it seems like the Fed is going to take it slowly is being seen as a good sign by the equity markets and by the currency markets.”

So with much of the debate in the market surrounding Yellen’s comments around inflation, its timely that today we’ll get the June PPI report followed then by the June CPI report tomorrow. With regards to the former, the market consensus is for a 0.0% mom headline reading and a +0.2% mom increase in the core reading. What will be worth keeping an eye on is the health care services component of the PPI which will provide clues on the near-term direction of the core PCE deflator which as we know is the Fed’s preferred inflation metric. Something to look forward to.

Like equities, Treasuries rallied in reaction to Yellen, with yields on two-year notes falling to three-week lows, as did bonds in Europe and Asia. Germany’s benchmark 10-year Bund yield was flat on the day at 0.51 percent. They have now given back a quarter of the rise triggered by last month’s hint from ECB head Mario Draghi that it was readying to scale back stimulus. Treasuries meanwhile have clawed back a third of their selloff.

“The market did perceive a greater degree of anxiety over inflation – at the margin,” said Westpac’s U.S. economist, Elliot Clarke. “To our mind, this is unlikely to get in the way of another hike this year.”

“Two further hikes in 2018 will likely be justified by conditions. However, the case for additional hikes thereafter is nowhere near being made.”

It wasn’t just Yellen. Bullish sentiment got another boost when China reported upbeat data on exports and imports for June, in what was seen as a sign that global trade is finding some real traction again, helping push Asian shares up more than 1 percent. As shown below, every single indicator not only rebounded from May, but also beat expectations, while the Chinese trade balance rose to $294.3bn in June, above the $275.1bn expected.

  • Imports (CNY)(Jun) Y/Y 23:1% vs. Exp. 22.3% (Prey. 22.1%)
  • Exports (CNY)(Jun) Y/Y 17.3% vs. Exp. 14.6% (Prey. 15.5%) Chinese Trade Balance (USD)(Jun) 42.8B vs. Exp. 42.6B (Prey. 40.79B)
  • Imports (USD)(Jun) Y/Y 17.2% vs. Exp. 14.5% (Prey. 14.8%)
  • Exports (USD)(Jun) Y/Y 11.3% vs. Exp. 8.9% (Prey. 8.7%)

A quick macro recap of the overnight trading sessions via Bloomberg:

  • ASIA: USD/JPY steady after touching a high of 113.53, with Japan’s govt bond yields down after strong 20-year bond auction results. Asia’s emerging-market currencies rose, led by the won, as Yellen stuck to gradual approach to tightening. CAD strengthened after Bank of Canada’s first interest-rate increase in almost seven years contributing to dollar weakness.
  • EUROPE: EUR/USD initially higher on expectations ECB could send hawkish signals at its meeting next week, with bund futures volumes picking up, as benchmark 10y bund falls below 0.50% — a breach above that level was earlier widely seen as sell-off catalyst. However the Euro has dropped to session lows following the European open.

It has been a mostly green European session across asset classes, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index climbed 0.5% adding to Wednesday’s 1.5 percent gain. Telecoms and retailers led gains. Bloomberg writes with EUR/GBP pushing to weekly low with focus on hawkish commentary from BOE’s McCafferty, EUR/USD hits session lows in tandem at 1.14. AUD outperforms with most citing overnight USD weakness as main driver, AUD/USD within range of YTD high. Gilts initially open lower in response to McCafferty before quickly reversing, led by the long end as the market impact of index extensions from coupon-paying gilts going ex-dividend provides support; bunds also lifted by old 10Y benchmark yield moving back below 50bps. Equity markets rally from the open led by miners; ArcelorMittal (+2.7%) after upgrade from Deutsche Bank, mining index above 50 and 200 DMAs. Crude futures edge lower after supply warning from IEA.  Asia’s gains also lifted Indian stocks to an all-time high. South Korea and Australia’s main indexes both climbed 1.1 percent too, the former helped as its central bank kept interest rates at a record low. Japan’s Nikkei was restrained by a firmer yen and ended flat.

Futures on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 also signaled further gains. S&P 500 Sept contracts rose 0.2% at 6:15 a.m. in New York as the benchmark on Wednesday advanced to within 0.5% of its record close reached in June. Nasdaq 100 futures added 0.4% after the benchmark climbed for a fourth day yesterday.

There was less euphoria in commodities, where oil prices flatlined as producer club OPEC said it expected demand to decline next year as rivals pump more, though the Chinese trade data showed it remained a heavy buyer. Brent crude futures were off 4 cents at $47.70 a barrel, while U.S. crude eased 5 cents to $45.44.  Spring wheat for September delivery fell as much as 1.6 percent to $7.8175 a bushel, down a third day. The U.S. Department of Agriculture said domestic production will be greater than analysts expected. Gold added 0.2 percent to $1,222.42 an ounce, a fourth day of gains on expectations rates will stay low.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2,444.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.5% to 386.97
  • US 10Y yield down 1bps to 0.31%
  • German 10Y yield down 3bps to 0.55%
  • Euro down 0.03% to 1.1409 per US$
  • Italian 10Y yield down 3bps to 2.23%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 4 bps to 1.60%
  • MXAP up 0.7% to 156.42
  • MXAPJ up 1.2% to 515.21
  • Nikkei up 0.01% to 20,099.81
  • Topix little changed at 1,619.11
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.2% to 26,346.17
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.6% to 3,218.16
  • Sensex up 0.8% to 32,046.55
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.1% to 5,736.77
  • Kospi up 0.7% to 2,409.49
  • Brent futures down 0.7% to $47.41/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,222.12
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 95.78

Top Overnight News from BBG

  • Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s Senate hearing Thursday moved to 9:30 am ET
  • Fed’s George supports balance sheet reduction in ’near future’, says U.S. economic fundamentals look positive
  • China June trade surplus 294.3b yuan vs 275.1b est; exports 17.3% vs 14.6% est; imports 17.2% vs 14.5% est
  • PBOC offers 360b yuan liquidity via MLF operations
  • Bank of Japan to raise growth outlook for FY2017/2018 by 0.1%-0.2%; mulls downgrading CPI forecasts: Nikkei
  • Bank of Korea holds rate steady; raises 2017 GDP forecast
  • House Republicans are throwing up new roadblocks to a Russia and Iran sanctions bill
  • OPEC wants “orderly recovery” in oil production from Libya, Nigeria and Iran, can accommodate more crude from the three member nations
  • GLP Is Said to Choose Chinese Bidder for $10 Billion Buyout
  • Yanlord Group Is Said to Near $1.2 Billion United Engineers Bid
  • Daimler Drops After Report Probe May Involve 1 Million Vehicles
  • Astra Drops on Report Soriot Will Quit to Become Teva’s Chief
  • Soriot at Teva May Signal Shift From Generics: Credit Suisse
  • Roche Says It’s Focusing on New Drugs as U.S. Biosimilars Loom
  • Bond Trader Bets $10 Million That Volatility Revival Is Imminent
  • Oil Bosses See More Pain as Price Recovery Slips Back to 2020
  • Clariant’s Anglo-Saxon Investors Oppose Huntsman Deal: HZ
  • Qatar Airways Still Plans American Airlines Share Purchase: CEO
  • Trump Administration Approves Eni’s Arctic Drilling Plan
  • Eisendrath-Led Group Set to Buy Chicago Sun-Times: Sun-Times

Asia stocks were higher across the board as the region maintained the momentum from its global counterparts, in which the DJIA posted record highs after a dovish testimony from Fed Chair Yellen, while participants also mulled over key Chinese data. ASX 200 (+1.1 %) and Nikkei 225 (unch) were lifted from the open, although gains in the latter were pared as JPY firmed. China conformed to the upbeat tone with the Hang Seng (+1.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.6%) traded in the green after better than expected Aggregate Financing, New Yuan Loans and Trade data. 10yr JGBs track upside seen in T-notes as Yellen’s comments eased yields, while outperformance was seen in 20yr JGBs despite mixed 20yr auction results. PBoC adviser states that China should consider a government backed fund to deal with employment-related issues arising from clean-up of zombie firms

Top Asian News

  • Cheap Currency Spurs Malaysia Exports as Central Bank Stays Put
  • China June Trade Data Buoyed by Robust Demand at Home and Abroad
  • Citigroup Names Dhawan as Asia Commercial Bank SME Business Head
  • Japan Stocks to Watch: Fast Retailing, Fujitsu General, Totenko
  • MSCI Move Sees Pakistan Go From Best to Worst as Flows Ease
  • China Plans Targeting Pipeline Expansion Boosts Energy Stocks
  • Asia’s Central Banks Steer Clear of Hawkish Peers, For Now
  • Taiwan Chip Giant Creates New Billionaire on iPhone Outlook
  • One Billion Tons of Iron Ore Are Headed to China’s Mills in 2017

EU Equity markets trade mixed on the day, as futures were bullish following Yellen’s dovish tone yesterday, with markets seemingly taking a breather from a busy day’s trade yesterday. Sector specific is also mixed, as oil lags the energy sector. Materials are the noticeable out performer, as metal markets trade the vast majority in the green amid the risk tone and dampening dollar sentiment. Fixed Income markets benefited from Yellen’s pre-release yesterday, with bids clear across the major bonds, however, the German Bund continues to trade above the 0.50% yield level. OATs have followed the trend this morning, as they begin to tighten their lOy bund spread, now at 1bps.

Top European News

  • May Faces Battle Over Brexit Laws as Clock Ticks on EU Talks
  • U.K. Housing Cools as Political Uncertainty Undercuts Demand
  • Spain’s Liberbank Short-Sale Ban Extended for Two Months
  • Mike Ashley’s Sports Direct Buys 26% Stake in Game Digital
  • Altice Is Said to Plan Creation of Banking Unit: Parisien
  • Stops Run in Bund Futures as Old Benchmark Falls Below 0.50%
  • Commerzbank Closes Bund Shorts After Dovish Yellen Comments
  • Ofcom to Release BT From Undertakings After Pension Changes

In currencies, the BoC made more waves after its head Poloz sees modest overshoot in inflation in 2019; says policy not on a predetermined path, further stating, Central bank must target future inflation. FX markets have taken a back-foot this morning, as many slow down following the volatility seen in the majors yesterday. GBP has been the most interesting mover on the day, following an overnight article from BoE’s McCafferty, cementing his hawkish tone, and his vote for a hike in August. USD/JPY continued its bearish pressure into Asian trade; not looking back since rejecting 114.50, taking another spike below 113.00 in Asian trade, the pair has consolidated around this level throughout European trade, with any clear break possibly set to result in a test of the 109.50 range.

In commodities, OPEC crude output rose by 340 kb/d in June to 32.6 mb/d after Saudi flows increased and Libya and Nigeria, spared from cuts, pumped at stronger rates, according to the !EA report Global oil supply rose by 720 kb/d in June to 97.46 mb/d as producers opened the taps. For global demand, after lacklustre 1.0 mb/d growth in 1Q17, there was a dramatic acceleration in 2Q17 to 1.5 mb/d. The key oil risk event today came from the !EA monthly oil report, where the global oil supply rose by 720 kb/d in June to 97.46m1n BPD as producers opened the taps, however, this did coincide with an increase in demand. For global demand, after lacklustre 1.0mln BPD growth in 1Q17, there was a dramatic acceleration in 2Q17 to 1.5mln BPD, expecting 2017 global demand to grow 1.5% to 98m1n BPD. OPEC crude output rose by 340 kb/d in June to 32.6 mb/d after Saudi flows increased and Libya and Nigeria, spared from cuts, pumped at stronger rates. As this news was digested, oil saw selling pressure, with WTI trading through USD 45.00. Precious metals benefitted from Yellen’s tone yesterday, as Gold rose for the fourth successive day. Asian trade was slow, with the other metals gaining amid the dovish tone; Silver +0.2%, Platinum +0.2% and Palladium +0.1%. However, as Europe came to market, Silver and Palladium began to lag, not able to keep up with the yellow gold.

Looking at the day ahead, the June PPI report should be the main release of note while the other data includes initial jobless claims and the monthly budget statement for June. Away from the data, Yellen will again deliver her testimony, this time in front of the Senate Banking Committee. The Fed’s Brainard is also due to speak again, at 1pm. The other potentially interesting event today is the CBO’s analysis of President Trump’s fiscal year 2018 budget.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 245,000, prior 248,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.95m, prior 1.96m
  • 8:30am: PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.0%, prior 0.0%; Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.3%
    • PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM, est. 0.2%, prior -0.1%
    • PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 1.9%, prior 2.4%; Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 2.0%, prior 2.1%
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 48.5
  • 2pm: Monthly Budget Statement, est. $38.0b deficit

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Mrs Yellen failed to send an Iceberg on a collision course with investors yesterday as her speech was interpreted as fairly dovish. So much for the globally coordinated Sintra pact. Indeed a look at the intra-day charts show that risk assets climbed and yields fell the moment the statement was pre-released at 8.30am local time (1.30pm BST). The S&P 500 eventually finished up +0.73% with all sectors ending higher and the index now back to within just half a percent of its all-time record high. Europe had already been trading a little firmer but the comments also helped European indices rally into the close. The Stoxx 600 ended +1.52%. In rates 10y Treasuries finished 4.3bps lower in yield at 2.319% which was the strongest day in a month. 2y yields were 3.2bps lower and 30y yields were 4.0bps lower. Bunds (-4.7bps), OATs (-5.6bps) and BTPs (-6.8bps) also rallied in tune. Gold (+0.23%) nudged higher for the third session in a row while the US Dollar bucked the rest of the market a little by ending the day unchanged.

In terms of Yellen’s comments, the dovish interpretation appeared to be twofold in nature. The first was Yellen’s rubber stamping of Brainard’s comment from the day prior in which the Fed Chair said that “because the neutral rate is currently quite low by historical standards, the federal funds rate would not have to rise all that much further to get a neutral policy stance”. The second concerned inflation with Yellen’s broad narrative around the topic a little bit more dovish relative to recent communications. The Fed Chair said that “I do believe part of the weakness in inflation reflects transitory factors, but well recognise that inflation has been running under our 2% objective, that there could be more going on there”. She also said that there is “uncertainty about when – and how much – inflation will respond to tightening resource utilization” and that this will remain a key focus for the Fed in the near term. On the balance sheet Yellen indicated that she expects the Fed to start reducing its balance sheet “this year” without any further guidance as to when exactly that might be. Our US economists are sticking to their call for a pause in the rate hiking cycle in September to announce the beginning of its balance sheet normalization program, and then resume increasing the fed funds rate at the December meeting.

So with much of the debate in the market surrounding Yellen’s comments around inflation, its timely that today we’ll get the June PPI report followed then by the June CPI report tomorrow. With regards to the former, the market consensus is for a 0.0% mom headline reading and a +0.2% mom increase in the core reading. What will be worth keeping an eye on is the health care services component of the PPI which, as our economists note, will provide clues on the near-term direction of the core PCE deflator which as we know is the Fed’s preferred inflation metric. So all that to look forward to.

This morning in Asia the positive sentiment has continued for the most part. The Hang Seng (+1.01%), Shanghai Comp (+0.44%), Kospi (+1.22%) and ASX (+1.09%) have all firmed, while sovereign bond markets are also stronger and following the lead from Treasuries yesterday. The Nikkei (-0.11%) is  underperforming slightly on the back of a slightly stronger session for the Yen. Meanwhile trade data in China released this morning revealed that exports – in USD terms – rose to +11.3% yoy in June (vs. +8.9% expected) from +8.7% in May. That is the fastest pace of growth since March. Import growth also edged higher but China’s trade surplus still widened last month.

Moving on. The other notable story from yesterday concerned another central bank – namely the Bank of Canada – following a largely expected 25bp rate hike in the benchmark rate to 0.75%. That is the first rate hike for the BoC since 2010 and it also means that the BoC becomes the first G7 central bank to join the Fed in raising rates in the current cycle. The overall message was fairly hawkish too. Inflation was downplayed as being temporary while the BoC highlighted that the “output gap is now projected to close around the end of 2017, earlier than the Bank anticipated in its April Monetary Policy Report”. Guidance for future policy tightening appears to be firmly data dependent which was something also noted by Governor Poloz in his press conference. In an otherwise strong day for sovereign bonds, Canadian govies were the notable underperformer yesterday with 10y yields edging up 1.9bps to 1.873% and closing the gap a bit on Treasuries. The Canadian Dollar also rallied 1.27% and the most since March.

Closer to home, it was a much more mixed picture in the UK with early dovish comments from the BoE’s Broadbent later countered by an overall decent set of UK employment figures. Starting with the former, Broadbent spoke shortly after we went to print yesterday and notably said that the bank is “not yet ready to support a rate hike”. Remember that Broadbent’s exact position on the BoE was a bit on an unknown with the suggestion now that he is sitting slightly towards the dovish side of centre. Later in the morning we then got the latest employment figures where it was revealed that the ILO unemployment rate dropped to a 42-year low of 4.5% (from 4.6%) after employment rose 175k in the three months to May. On the wages front, while average earnings including bonuses rose just +1.8% yoy (down from +2.1% in April), ex-bonus earnings did nudge up twotenths and a bit more than expected to +2.0% yoy. Sterling finished up +0.29% yesterday and just shy of $1.290 after touching as low as $1.281 shortly after Broadbent’s comments.

Away from central banks, it was a fairly volatile session for Oil yesterday with WTI trading in a 3% range around $46/bbl. The latest EIA data revealed that US crude stockpiles dropped by over 7.5m barrels last week which was the sharpest decline since the week ending September 2nd. A rally was also temporarily aided by headlines concerning an extraordinary OPEC meeting scheduled for July 17th however this was later downplayed in terms of its significance.

Before we wrap up, it’s been a busy last 24 hours over in Brazil too with the news that former President Lula was convicted of graft and money laundering following his role in the corruption scandal which swept through the country. The helped Brazil’s Ibovespa to rally +1.57% yesterday while the Brazilian Real (+1.42%) also had its strongest day in two months.

Looking at the day ahead, this morning in Europe we are due to receive the final revisions to the June CPI prints in both Germany and France. The consensus is no for no change to the initial flash estimates of +0.2% mom and 0.0% mom respectively. The other release to note this morning is the BoE’s credit conditions and bank liabilities survey. Over in the US this afternoon, the aforementioned June PPI report should be the main release of note while the other data includes initial jobless claims and the monthly budget statement for June. Away from the data, Yellen will again deliver her testimony, this time in front of the Senate  Banking Committee. The Fed’s Brainard is also due to speak again, at 6pm BST. The other potentially interesting event today is the CBO’s analysis of President Trump’s fiscal year 2018 budget.

 END

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late WEDNESDAY night/THURSDAY morning: Shanghai closed UP 20.62 POINTS OR 0.64%   / /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 302.53 POINTS OR 1.16% The Nikkei closed UP 1.43 POINTS OR 0.01%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 1.07%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.7840/Oil UP to 45.31 dollars per barrel for WTI and 47.47 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL IN THE GREEN,, Offshore yuan trades  6.7832 yuan to the dollar vs 6.7840 for onshore yuan. NOW THE OFFSHORE IS A TOUCH STRONGER  TO THE ONSHORE YUAN/ ONSHORE YUAN  STRONGER (TO THE DOLLAR)  AND THE OFFSHORE YUAN IS MUCH STRONGER TO THE DOLLAR AND THIS IS COUPLED WITH THE STRONGER DOLLAR. CHINA IS STILL NOT  HAPPY 

3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

end

c) REPORT ON CHINA

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

end

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

QATAR

Qatar has airlifted 165 cows so its citizens can obtain milk as the embargo is certainly having an effect

 

(courtesy zero hedge)

Erdogan could face arrest in Sweden for war crimes.  Five members of the Swedish parliament officially accused the Turkish President of genocide against the Turkish Kurds.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Erdogan Could Face Arrest In Sweden After Officially Being Accused Of Genocide

Via TheAntiMedia.org,

Marking the first time Sweden – the country – has ever lodged a complaint against a head-of-state, this week five members of parliament (MPs) from the Scandinavian country officially accused Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of genocide.

The MPs’ complaint alleges Erdogan has committed war crimes, genocide, and crimes against humanity against the Kurdish majority in Turkey’s southeast region since a truce between the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) and government forces fell apart in 2015.

The official complaint was filed in the Swedish International Public Prosecution Offices.

If that department decides to move forward with an investigation, warrants could be issued for the arrest of Erdogan and several other Turkish officials, such as Prime Minister Binali Yildirim.

MP Carl Schlyter says he likes the idea of Erdogan potentially having limited freedom of movement in his part of the world and hopes neighboring countries will follow suit:

“If [Mr Erdogan] is hindered from roaming around in Europe and influencing European countries the way he wants, then I hope that this will affect his politics.”

Such a move against President Erdogan was only made possible by a Swedish law passed in 2014 that allows the country to hold and judge its own court cases involving genocide and crimes against humanity, regardless of where those crimes took place.

“Anyone, who in order to completely or partially destroy a national or ethnic group of people” kills or causes serious pain or injury is “guilty of genocide,” the legislation reads.

The PKK, which originally sought an independent homeland for Turkey’s 15 million Kurds, launched its insurgency back in 1984. Since that time, an estimated 40,000 people, mostly Kurds, have died in the conflict.

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

An excellent commentary from Brandon Smith as he talks about the new world order that is coming. He comments that Germany is facing/joining Russia and China

(courtesy Brandon Smith/Alt-Media.com)

The New World Order Takeover Is Very Real… And Will Begin With Germany And China

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.com,

In numerous articles over the years I have outlined in acute detail the agenda for a future one-world economic and governmental system led primarily by banking elites and globalists; an agenda they sometimes refer to as the “New World Order.” The term has gained such public exposure and notoriety recently that the globalists have fallen back to using different terminology. Some of them, like the International Monetary Fund’s Christine Lagarde, refer to it as the “global economic reset.” Others call it the “new multilateralism.” Still others refer to it as the “end of the unipolar order,” referring to the slow death of the U.S. economy as the central pillar of the global economy.

Whatever label they decide to use, all of them signal a full spectrum destabilization of the “old world” financial and geopolitical system and the ascendance of a tightly controlled one world edifice dominated openly by globalist hubs like the IMF and the BIS.

Too many people, even in the liberty movement, tend to examine only the veneer of this agenda. Some have deluded themselves into thinking the U.S. and the dollar are actually the core of the NWO and are therefore indispensable to the globalists. As I have shown time and time again, the Federal Reserve is now on a fast track to complete its sabotage of the U.S. economy; they would not be instigating instability and crisis to deflate the massive fiscal bubbles they have created unless America was at least partially expendable.

Some believe the NWO is a purely “western” construct and that eastern nations are defending themselves against an encroaching globalist empire. I have also shown that this is nonsense, and that eastern nations work closely with the same exact globalists they are supposedly at war with. This includes Russia’s Vladimir Putin, a figure often ignorantly praised by select liberty activists.

What we see in the mainstream is conflict, yes; but it is theatrical conflict. At the end of the day, Eastern leaders pander to globalist high priests at the IMF and BIS and have lunch with NWO icons like Henry Kissinger, just as heads of the Republican Party and even Donald Trump’s family go out to parties with Democrat strategists and George Soros.

It’s all a kabuki play. All the world is a stage…

So, the question then remains, since the NWO and a one world economic system is in fact a real threat proven to exist through considerable evidence including the very words of prominent globalists, how does such a thing begin? If the U.S. is merely a limb that the globalists are willing to sacrifice in trade to gain even greater centralization, where will the NWO actually take root? As noted, both Eastern and Western nations are at the disposal of the international financiers, so it should come as no surprise that the NWO is seemingly taking shape around the relationship between two nations; one from either side.

As Bloomberg announces with apparent glee in an article titled “China, Germany Step Up As U.S. Retires From World Leadership,”Donald Trump risks “uniting cold war allies and foes alike against him.” In other words, the future is extreme socialism, the populists are a dangerous and dying breed and globalization marches on without them. The narrative is clearly being established.

The relationship between China and Germany might seem strange, but the two countries are far more alike than many people comprehend. Germany is the industrial and economic centerpiece of the European Union.  China is the economic and industrial pillar of Asia.  China sells itself as a communist society with capitalist hobbies. Germany sells itself as a capitalist society integrating socialist (communist) programs and social justice mantras. In reality, both nations are collectivist hell-holes, but this is exactly the kind of model the globalists want for the entire world.

Germany has set the stage for the self-flagellating model of “multiculturalism.” Angela Merkel is obsessive in her pursuit of the ideal, and this makes sense from a globalist perspective. Multiculturalism requires absolutely uninhibited movement of ideologies and populations across borders, making borders essentially obsolete. Idiot leftists duped by pie-in-the-sky fantasies like “it takes a village to raise a child” have been exploited by the globalists as a tool to push the end of national sovereignty. Merkel’s Germany has been at the forefront of this movement in Europe and is now apparently being groomed as an antithesis to Trump.

Germany has also for many years stood as a kind of socialist paradise, with over 25% of their GDP going into entitlement programs so pervasive it is possible for German citizens (women in particular) to live most of their lives without ever having to work. It was this constant flow of tax dollars into welfare programs that attracted a vast number of so-called “refugees” from Islamic countries into the EU, virtually overwhelming the entitlement system and forcing Germany to put restrictions on new citizens.

China has served the NWO model as more of an oppressive economic testing ground. Welfare and universal health insurance is indeed at the forefront of the Chinese government’s latest “five year” program. Of course, with hundreds of millions of Chinese living on less than one U.S. dollar per day, the population has no choice but to rely on the generosity of the state. This has molded an economy that is barely tolerable for many, but tolerable enough to keep them from revolting. It is a dynamic the elites would like to apply in every nation.

The Chinese government oversees every aspect of the corporate networks that make up its economy. A Chinese business is in most cases a Chinese government business. There is no such thing as free enterprise in China. China’s relationship with globalist institutions is well known. They are one of the first nations to openly call for a new global currency system headed by the IMF and based on the SDR basket. China has also recently been inducted into membership in the SDR basket by the IMF, showing that the back scratching is mutual.

It is this strategy of elevating the SDR basket and replacing the dollar’s world reserve status as a precursor to a global currency that has been brought up time and time again by globalists.Recently by Mohamad El-Rian, former CEO of PIMCO in an article titled “Could The IMF’s World Currency Help Encourage Global Unity?” Take special note that El-Erian suggests the shift into a global currency system as a way to fight back against the recent “rise of populism.”

In order for such a plan to be launched, there has to be some stability somewhere on the world. While many nations face financial crisis on a scale not seen since the Great Depression, the globalists still need to have places to consolidate capital and establish a beachhead for the next assault on sovereignty. This beachhead may come in the form of an economic union between Germany and China, the two NWO favorites.

China is Germany’s largest trading partner and Germany has been the top place for Chinese investment in Europe. Last month Merkel and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang met with the intention of “deepening ties” in the face of “protectionism” promoted by Donald Trump. Merkel stated:

“China has become a more important and strategic partner…”

 

“We are living in times of global uncertainty and see our responsibility to expand our partnership in all the different areas and to push for a world order based on law…”

Germany’s ambassador to Beijing, in a recent briefing with reporters leading into G20 stated:

“The economic and political dynamic from a German perspective is moving toward the east.”

 

“The U.S. has left somewhat of a vacuum in the region by abandoning the proposed 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership free-trade agreement…”

As I have argued since before the 2016 election, Donald Trump’s job is to be the catalyst for multiple globalist programs which have actually been in the works for decades. Trump is now the excuse for everything. Trump and populism are the excuse for renewed “multilateralism,” the excuse for German and Chinese cooperation, the excuse for a new global currency system and, most likely, the scapegoat for the inevitable final stage of our ongoing economic collapse.

Where Trump is supposed to represent the old world order and its “barbarism,” Germany and China obviously are being staged as the symbol of something new; a New World Order in which cooperation and interdependency are the great virtues of our epoch. It is my suspicion that along with Russia and China, Germany will be one of the first nations to fully dump the U.S. dollar as the world reserve currency when the time comes to shift into the SDR basket system. And, that time is approaching quickly. It is also my suspicion that the globalists are seeking an economic power base from which to project their NWO, and Germany and China fit the bill nicely.

I suggest alternative analysts watch the relationship between these two countries very closely. Their behaviors may signal many changes and dangers ahead.

 end
CANADA/IMF
The IMF warns Canada one day after zero hedge’s warning.  And they warn not to raise rates as they see a crisis around the corner
(courtesy zero hedge)

IMF Rings The Alarm On Canada’s Economy

Shortly after yesterday’s rate hike by the Bank of Canada, its first since 2010, we warned that as rates in Canada begin to rise, the local economy which has seen a striking decline in hourly earnings in the past year, which remains greatly reliant on a vibrant construction sector, and where households are the most levered on record, if there is anything that can burst the local housing bubble, it is tighter monetary conditions. And a bubble it is, as the chart below clearly demonstrates… one just waiting for the pin, which as we suggested yesterday in “”Canada Is In Serious Trouble” Again, And This Time It’s For Real“, may have finally been provided thanks to the Bank of Canada itself.

Now, one day after our warning, the IMF has doubled down and on Thursday issued its latest consultation report, in which it said that while Canada’s economy has regained some momentum, it warned that business investment remains weak, non-energy exports have underperformed, housing imbalances have increased and uncertainty surrounding trade negotiations with the United States could hurt the recovery.

The report – which even concerningly was written even before the BOC hiked rates by 0.25% – also said the Bank of Canada’s current monetary policy stance is appropriate, and it cautioned against tightening.

“While the output gap has started to close, monetary policy should stay accommodative until signs of durable growth and higher inflation emerge,” the IMF said, adding that rate hikes should be “approached cautiously”.

While one can accuse the IMF of being traditionally dovish: recall Christine Lagarde – who famously said the IMF would be out of business if there were no world crises – has been screaming at central banks for hiking rates (in retrospect she will be proven right, just not yet), in this case she may be right: the recent sudden surge in Canadian interest rates especially on the long end will have a severe impact on loan demand, not to mention mortgage rates and, of course, housing demand.

Furthermore, in a statement following its annual policy review with Canada, the IMF
cautioned that “risks to Canada’s outlook are significant” particularly
– drumroll – “the danger of a sharp correction in the housing market, a further
decline in oil prices, or U.S. protectionism
.”

Risks to the outlook are significant. On the upside, stronger-than-expected growth in the U.S. could boost export and investment in the near term. On the downside, risks stem from several potential factors—including the risk of a sharp correction in the housing market, high uncertainty surrounding U.S. policies, or a further decline in oil prices—that can be mutually reinforcing. Policy choices will therefore be crucial in shaping the outlook and reducing risks.

The monetary fund aslo said that financial stability risks could emerge if the housing correction is accompanied by a recession, but there was good news: the IMF noted that recent stress tests have shown Canadian banks could withstand a “significant loss” on their uninsured residential mortgage portfolio, in part because of high capital position.

Well, we are about to find out. Meanwhile, house prices in Toronto and Vancouver have more than doubled since 2009 and the boom has fueled record household debt, a vulnerability that has also been noted by the Bank of Canada. As Reuters adds, some economists believe the rate hike this week was at least partly aimed at reducing financial system imbalances, which is admirable… the only problem is that the first casualty of a correction in imbalances will be the blue line in the chart at the top.

“The main risk on the domestic side is a sharp correction in the housing market that impairs bank balance sheets, triggers negative feedback loops in the economy, and increases contingent claims on the government,” the IMF warned, sounding the loudest alarm yet on Canada’s economy even if it was reiterating previous warnings about Canada’s long housing boom.

There was another danger: Trump. The Fund also warned U.S. trade protectionism could hurt Canada’s economy, and laid out a scenario for an increase in tariffs that could come with the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement. The IMF was also kind enough to quantify just how little it would take to send the local economy into a tailspin: the IMF said if the United States raises the average tariff on imports from Canada by 2.1 percentage points and there is no retaliation from Canada, there would be a short-term negative impact on real GDP of about 0.4%. Naturally, if tariff increases were higher, an outright recession was virtually guaranteed.

7. OIL ISSUES

Wall street has been funding the shale boys who responded by increasing production. The problem is that the price is falling and they are not been rewarded with juicy profits

(courtesy Nick Cunningham/OilPrice.com

 

Is Wall Street Funding A Shale Failure?

Authored by Nick Cunningham via OilPrice.com,

The latest figures from the EIA show that despite some hiccups, the shale rebound is still on track. Last week, the sharp drawdown in inventories made headlines, but buried within the weekly figures was a bounce back in oil production, reigniting fears that the market will take much longer to balance.

(Click to enlarge)

The U.S. shale industry has already added almost a half million barrels per day since the end of last year, taking production up to 9.3 million barrels per day (mb/d). But production is expected to continue to grow rapidly, with projections putting output at a record-high 10 mb/d by next year.

The coming wave of new supply will only be possible with the generous help of Wall Street. According to the Wall Street Journal, major banks and investors have showered the industry with credit and equity, pouring an estimated $57 billion into the sector over the past 18 months. All of that money is being translated into a sharp rise in drilling even as oil prices slump.

But while individual companies hope to attract investors and boost profits by ratcheting up production, the industry as a whole is shooting itself in the foot. Some less efficient drillers are increasing production but losing money on every barrel produced.

There is a growing recognition that loose money and easy credit is helping contribute to another downturn in prices. “The biggest problem our industry faces today is you guys,” the CEO of Anadarko Petroleum, Al Walker, said at an investor’s conference in June, according to the WSJ. “It’s kind of like going to AA. You know, we need a partner. We really need the investment community to show discipline.”

Investors hungry for yield are throwing money into companies who then drill more, and the surge in production is hurting the industry as a whole. Despite efficiency improvements, the shale industry is expected to be cash flow negative by a combined $20 billion this year as oil prices sink.

The energy sector, by some estimates, has been the worst performer this year for investors, so many are getting burned even as they keep the money taps open. Whether in terms of commodity prices (energy fell 11 percent in the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index) or individual companies (73 of the 90 companies in the MSCI World Energy Sector Index saw their share prices decline in the second quarter), the oil and gas industry has not been a great space to be in.

(Click to enlarge)

Investors are slowly waking up to the idea that they may not be able to make juicy profits by betting on a sharp rebound in oil prices. There is some early evidence that Big Finance is pulling back, with new equity issuance down recently.

Even if Wall Street starts to cut back on its investments in shale, it will take time for that spending contraction to show up in the production data. There is a roughly six-month lag time between the decision to begin drilling and oil showing up in the market, so the rush of new drilling that began in the first half of 2017 will ensure that production likely continues on its upward trajectory for the rest of the year.

But lower prices will ultimately cut into U.S. production, even if that doesn’t occur until 2018. According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch, a $1 per barrel increase or decrease translates into the addition or subtraction of 100,000 bpd of supply. As a result, “[w]ithin a $20 band, you get an almost 2m b/d swing,” said Francisco Blanch, Bank of America’s global head of commodities research, according to the FT. So while 2017 production will probably continue to increase, the outlook for 2018 is still sensitive to prices.

Nevertheless, the current oversupply woes have forced investment banks and other oil analysts far and wide to downgrade their oil price forecasts. For example, Bernstein Research slashed its price forecast for 2017 and 2018 from $60 and $70 per barrel, respectively, down to just $50. Bernstein doesn’t see oil averaging $60 per barrel before 2019.

Drastic cuts to oil price forecasts are spreading. BNP Paribas just axed its 2018 forecast for Brent by $15 per barrel to a lowly $48.

If those depressed price levels stick around, Wall Street will likely grow tired of shale drilling and start taking its money elsewhere.

8. EMERGING MARKET

end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00 am

Euro/USA   1.1398 DOWN .0019/REACTING TO  + huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:/TRUMP HEALTH CARE DEFEAT//ITALIAN REFERENDUM DEFEAT/AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/ /USA RISING INTEREST RATES AGAIN/EUROPE BOURSES ALL GREEN

USA/JAPAN YEN 112.95 DOWN 0.367(Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/SIGNALS U TURN WITH INCREASED NEGATIVITY IN NIRP/JAPAN OUT OF WEAPONS TO FIGHT ECONOMIC DISASTER/KURODA:  HELICOPTER MONEY  ON THE TABLE AND DECISION ON SEPT 21 DISAPPOINTS WITH STIMULUS/OPERATION REVERSE TWIST/LABOUR PARTY LOSES IN LOCAL ELECTIONS

GBP/USA 1.2918 UP .0026 (Brexit  March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED

THERESA MAY FORMS A NEW GOVERNMENT/STARTS BREXIT TALKS

USA/CAN 1.2728 DOWN .0021 (CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA)

Early THIS THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 19 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level  FALLING to 1.1457; Europe is still reacting to Gr Britain HARD BREXIT,deflation, announcements of massive stimulation (QE), a proxy middle east war, and the ramifications of a default at the Austrian Hypo bank, an imminent default of Greece, Glencore, Nysmark and the Ukraine, along with rising peripheral bond yield further stimulation as the EU is moving more into NIRP, and now the Italian referendum defeat AND NOW THE ECB TAPERING OF ITS PURCHASES/ THE USA’S NON tightening by FAILING TO RAISE THEIR INTEREST RATE AND NOW THE HUGE PROBLEMS FACING TOO BIG TO FAIL DEUTSCHE BANK + THE ELECTION OF TRUMP IN THE USA+ TRUMP HEALTH CARE BILL DEFEAT AND MONTE DEI PASCHI NATIONALIZATION / Last night the Shanghai composite CLOSED  UP 20.62 POINTS OR 0.64%     / Hang Sang  CLOSED UP 302.53 POINTS OR 1.16% /AUSTRALIA  CLOSED UP 1.07% / EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED ALL IN THE GREE

We are seeing that the 3 major global carry trades are being unwound. The BIGGY is the first one;

1. the total dollar global short is 9 trillion USA and as such we are now witnessing a sea of red blood on the streets as derivatives blow up with the massive rise in the rise in the dollar against all paper currencies and especially with the fall of the yuan carry trade. The emerging market which house close to 50% of the 9 trillion dollar short is feeling the massive pain as their debt is quite unmanageable.

2, the Nikkei average vs gold carry trade ( NIKKEI blowing up and the yen carry trade HAS BLOWN up/and now NIRP)

3. Short Swiss franc/long assets blew up ( Eastern European housing/Nikkei etc.

These massive carry trades are terribly offside as they are being unwound. It is causing global deflation ( we are at debt saturation already) as the world reacts to lack of demand and a scarcity of debt collateral. Bourses around the globe are reacting in kind to these events as well as the potential for a GREXIT>

The NIKKEI: this THURSDAY morning CLOSED UP 1.43 POINTS OR 0.01%

Trading from Europe and Asia:
1. Europe stocks  OPENED ALL IN THE GREEN 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / : Hang Sang CLOSED UP 302.53 POINTS OR 1.16%  / SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 20.62 POINTS OR 0.64%   /Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 1.07% /Nikkei (Japan)CLOSED UP 1.43 POINTS OR 0.01%    / INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1222.50

silver:$15.95

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.312% !!! DOWN 0 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY night in basis points and it is trading JUST BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 The 30 yr bond yield  2.881, UP 4  IN BASIS POINTS  from WEDNESDAY night.

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 95.85 UP 9  CENT(S) from WEDNESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

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And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.199%  UP 10 in basis point(s) yield from WEDNESDAY 

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.0894%  DOWN 1/2  in   basis point yield from WEDNESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.705% UP 5   IN basis point yield from WEDNESDAY 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.3310 UP 8 POINTS  in basis point yield from WEDNESDAY 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 63 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: +.603% UP 3 IN  BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY

END

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IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM 

Euro/USA 1.1396 DOWN .0022 (Euro DOWN 22 Basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/

USA/Japan: 113.24 DOWN  0.088(Yen UP 9 basis points/ 

Great Britain/USA 1.2931 UP  0.0039( POUND UP 39 basis points) 

USA/Canada 1.2734 DOWN .0015 (Canadian dollar UP 15 basis points AS OIL ROSE TO $45.97

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This afternoon, the Euro was DOWN  by 22 basis points to trade at 1.1396

The Yen ROSE to 113.24 for a GAIN of 9  Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE  /OPERATION REVERSE TWIST ANNOUNCED SEPT 21.2016

The POUND ROSE BY 39  basis points, trading at 1.2931/ 

The Canadian dollar ROSE by 15 basis points to 1.2734,  WITH WTI OIL RISING TO :  $45.97

The USA/Yuan closed at 6.7835/
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.084%  DOWN 1/2  IN  BASIS POINTS / yield/ 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 4 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 2.350% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic  USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.925  UP 4 in basis points on the day /

Your closing USA dollar index, 95.79  UP  3 CENT(S)  ON THE DAY/1.00 PM 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 1:00 PM EST

London:  CLOSED DOWN 3.49 POINTS OR 0.05%
German Dax :CLOSED UP 14.75 POINTS OR 0.12%
Paris Cac  CLOSED UP 13.27 POINTS OR 0.25% 
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 97.90 POINTS OR 0.93%

Italian MIB: CLOSED  UP 89.36 POINTS/OR 0.42%

The Dow closed UP 20.95 OR 0.10%

NASDAQ WAS closed UP 13.27  POINTS OR 0.21%  4.00 PM EST
WTI Oil price;  45.97 at 1:00 pm; 

Brent Oil: 48.24 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE CROSS:  59.87 DOWN 11/100 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 11 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES TO  +0.603%  FOR THE 10 YR BOND  4.PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today

Closing Price for Oil, 5 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 5:00 PM:$46.06

BRENT: $48.41

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.346%  (ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 2.70% BLOWS UP THE GLOBE)

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.917%

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS:  1.1397 DOWN .0021

USA/JAPANESE YEN:113.21  DOWN  0.052

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 95.78  up 2  cent(s) 

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.2941 : UP 50 POINTS FROM LAST NIGHT  

Canadian dollar: 1.2727 UP 22 BASIS pts 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: +0.603%

END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

Treasury Turmoil Returns As Fed-Flip-Flop Sends Stocks To Record Highs, VIX Below 10

Yellen’s speaking again… give it all you’ve got!!

 

Stocks stalled early on (around 1010ET) thanks to inflation comments from Yellen, but that dip was bid back to the highs…then they took a little spill when Fed’s Brainard admitted “asset valuations do look a bit stretched” around 1400ET. Once again the rally-monkeys came out – even as it became clear that GOP will not have the votes for the revised healthcare bill…

Nasdaq up 5 days in a row – the longest streak since May… Early Small Caps weakness was ramped all the way back into green…

 

Futures show that in general markets went nowhere today…

 

On the week, Trannies are hovering just into the green as Nasdaq outperforms…

 

Retail was bid today (best day of the year), because suddenly they’re all fixed, and financials were higher ahead of tomorrow’s earnings..

 

FANG Stocks spiked up to a key resistance level then faded to end the day lower…

 

VIX was clubbed back to a 9 handle once again every time Nasdaq dared to dip red…

 

Treasury yields shot higher this morning and extended their rise through Yellen’s testimony…

 

With 30Y spiking almost 8bps off the lows to return to unchanged for the week, before bonds rallied into the close…

 

The Dollar Index slid once again (but saw quite a reversal overnight…

 

AUD is the best performer among the majors this week (along with the Loonie) as EURUSD remains unch…

 

Despite headlines of OPEC compliance crashing to six-month lows, WTI had a sudden early bid and that ignited momentum back to pre-DOE levels, back above $46…

 

Gold rolled over from earlier gains as the dollar rallied this afternoon, but the precious metal closed only marginally lower…

 

Bitcoin leaked back lower again…