July 27/GOLD UP $ 10.45 WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS/GOLD/SILVER EQUITY SHARES FLOUNDER AT THE END OF THE DAY SIGNALLING A POSSIBLE RAID TOMORROW//EU IS FORCING 3 COUNTRIES TO ACCEPT MIGRANTS AGAINST THEIR WISHES/SWITZERLAND FOR ITS 2ND CONSECUTIVE MONTH EXPORTS MORE GOLD THAN IT IMPORTS: IT HAS 0 MINING OPERATIONS IN ALL OF SWITZERLAND//

GOLD: $1260.30  UP $10.45

Silver: $16.59  UP 13 cent(s)

Closing access prices:

Gold $1259.50

silver: $16.58

SHANGHAI GOLD FIX:  FIRST FIX  10 15 PM EST  (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SECOND FIX:  2:15 AM EST  (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1269.54 DOLLARS PER OZ

NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME:  $1263.20

PREMIUM FIRST FIX:  $6.34

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SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1267.86

NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1262.60

Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$5.26

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LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX:  5:30 am est  $1262.05

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1263.00 

LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX  10 AM: $1261.10

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. $1261.20 

For comex gold:

JULY/

NOTICES FILINGS TODAY FOR APRIL CONTRACT MONTH:  4 NOTICE(S) FOR 400  OZ.

TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 175 FOR 17500 OZ    (.5443 TONNES)

For silver:

JULY

 112 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR

560,000  OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 3282 for 16,410,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 WE HAVE NOW ENTERED OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK:

 

LONDON BASED OPTIONS EXPIRY: JULY 31.2017 AT 11AM OR SO.

(OTC/LBMA CONTRACTS)

 Judging from the way the gold/silver shares traded today, it sure looks like the boys are going to orchestrate another humdinger of a raid against us tomorrow. 

 

end

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total open interest surprisingly ROSE BY 1352 contracts from 206,347 UP to 207,699 DESPITE THE FALL IN PRICE THAT SILVER TOOK WITH YESTERDAY’S TRADING (DOWN 9 CENT(S). YESTERDAY AGAIN THE COMMERCIALS TRIED IN VAIN TO COVER BUT TO NO AVAIL. EVEN WITH THE HELP OF OPTIONS EXPIRY THEY COULD NOT GET THE SILVER LONGS TO LEAVE THE SILVER TREE. THE SPECS SHORTS ALSO DESPERATELY TRIED TO COVER THEIR SHORTFALL. RELUCTANTLY THE BANKERS CONTINUED TO SUPPLY THE SHORT PAPER.  

 In ounces, the OI is still represented by just OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e.  1.04 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 148% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MAY MONTH/ THEY FILED: 112 NOTICE(S) FOR 560,000  OZ OF SILVER

In gold, the total comex gold AFTER A ONE DAY HIATUS FELL BY A WHOPPING 13,506 CONTRACTS WITH THE FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD  ($2.25 with YESTERDAY’S TRADING). The total gold OI stands at 450,321 contracts. The liquidation in the front month has now resumed where we left off on Tuesday as spec longs liquidated their comex contracts FOR EFP CONTRACTS which gives them a fiat bonus plus a future delivery product which most likely is a London based forward. (It was extremely strange yesterday to witness WEDNESDAY’s huge OI gain..maybe an error from the CME.) 

we had 4 notice(s) filed upon for 400 oz of gold.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD:

Late last night, a huge changes in gold inventory/another withdrawal of 5.03 tonnes of gold with gold up $10.45

Inventory rests tonight: 795.42 tonnes

IN THE LAST 10 DAYS: GLD SHEDS 42.08 TONNES YET GOLD IS HIGHER BY $42.00 . GO FIGURE!! GLD IS A MASSIVE FRAUD

SLV

Today: : WE HAD NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY TONIGHT DESPITE SILVER BEING DOWN 9 CENTS.

INVENTORY RESTS AT 343.812 MILLION OZ

end

.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in silver ROSE BY 1352 contracts from 206,347   UP TO 207,699 (AND now A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET ON FRIDAY/APRIL 21/2017 AT 234,787). THE RISE IN OPEN INTEREST WAS ACCOMPANIED BY  THE FALL IN SILVER PRICE  WITH  YESTERDAY’S TRADING  (DOWN 9 CENTS ). NO DOUBT WE WITNESSED MORE SPEC LONGS ENTER THE ARENA WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE  SPEC LONGS BASICALLY REMAINING STOIC. THE SPEC LONGS SEEM TO BE TAKING ON THE BANKERS. THE SPEC SHORTS ARE DESPERATE TO COVER THEIR SHORTFALL BUT THEY ARE COMING IN CONTACT WITH NEW HUGE NEW SPEC LONGS AND THAT DROVE THE OI HIGHER. THE BANKERS HAD NO CHOICE BUT TO SUPPLY MASSIVE AMOUNT OF SHORT PAPER WHICH QUELLED SILVER’S RISE BUT CONTRIBUTED TO THE HIGHER OI.

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

 

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY:  Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late TUESDAY night/WEDNESDAY morning: Shanghai closed UP 2.10 POINTS OR 0.06%   / /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 190.15 POINTS OR 0.71% The Nikkei closed UP 29.48 POINTS OR .15%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.15%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.7392/Oil UP to 48.88 dollars per barrel for WTI and 50.65 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED IN THE GREEN EXCEPT GERMAN DAX,, Offshore yuan trades  6.7384 yuan to the dollar vs 6.7533 for onshore yuan. NOW THE OFFSHORE IS STRONGER  TO THE ONSHORE YUAN/ ONSHORE YUAN  STRONGER (TO THE DOLLAR)  AND THE OFFSHORE YUAN IS MUCH STRONGER TO THE DOLLAR AND THIS IS COUPLED WITH THE WEAKER DOLLAR. CHINA IS VERY HAPPY TODAY  

3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA

i)NORTH KOREA

 After Mike Pompeo indicated that it would be good for a regime change in North Korea, Kim responds by threatening the USA with a “Nuclear Hammer”(THE ANTIMEDIA.ORG)

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

c) REPORT ON CHINA

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)ECB

An interesting commentary from Jeffrey Snider as he analyzes the huge 2 trillion euro QE orchestrated by Draghi. He explains why he did not keep his promise and for that Europe will be in trouble but not for target 2 imbalances or differences between the North and Club Med countries:

( Jeffrey Snider/Alhambra Investment Partners)

 

ii)GERMANY/DEUTSCHE BANK
Deutsche bank although reporting higher earnings, tumbled a huge 4% as in its earnings, it had a very abysmal trading results.  The street is very concerned because this bank is the world’s largest derivative player

( zero hedge)

iii)EU
This is rather dangerous for Europe and the Schengen agreement.  The EU is forcing by court 3 countries to accept refugees which they state they will defy.
( zero hedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

 

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

Sweden

The government is in trouble as by mistake it released information of just about all of its citizens. The PM will not resign and that caused the Krona to sink in value:

 

( zero hedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

8. EMERGING MARKET

9.   PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Amazing:  Bankers are ditching their fat salaries to chase cryptocurrencies

 

( Chen/Russo/Bloomberg/GATA)

ii)Very important:  Bullion star’s Ronan Manly highlights how China is accumulating massive amounts of gold on the international market probably equating to around 500 tonnes per year. Gold purchased on the international market is secret to China as they will not divulge those purchases. This gold is different to the 2000 tonnes of gold imported into the SGE  which is for citizens only.

 

This differs a little from Alasdair Macleod who believes that China has already amassed over 20,000 tonnes of gold from 1984 onward. Both Alasdair and Manly agree that no sovereign gold is purchased through the SGE. Manly believes that China has around 3800 tonnes-4900 tonnes.

 

( Ronan Manly/Bullionstar/GATA)

 

iii)Libor is not a very good indicator as to risks among banks and loans to each other.  Libor will be phased out in 2021 and it will be replaced with another reliable indicator.

 

( Ring/Bloomberg/GATA)

iv)Be careful when you view the recent rise in copper prices.  It may be just speculative and not fundamental increase in use of this metal.

( zero hedge)

v)I have a better explanation as to the huge bleed of gold at the GLD that I have been reporting to you.  Banks are borrowing shares. They cash the shares for gold and silver and then the metals are shipped to China.

( Lawrie Williams/Sharp’s Pixley)

vi)The following is a very important commentary from Lawrie Williams.  We now have Switzerland’s gold imports and exports.  Switzerland mines zero gold.

 

What is fascinating is that for two consecutive months, Switzerland’s gold exports have exceeded gold imports.  In May the differential was 39 tonnes.  In June 37 tonnes of gold. Switzerland’s refiners are going full tilt taking London good delivery bars and making them into kilobars. The big question is why the huge deficit in each month?. No wonder we are hearing delivery delays coming from the LBMA

(courtesy Lawrie Williams/Sharp’s Pixley)

10. USA Stories

i)The Senate as promised is set to introduce the “skinny” Obamacare repeal and that has a much better chance of passing.  However it just starts the proceedings all over again as they must get the House and Senate to agree on a comprehensive health bill.  With huge differences between Republican factions..that seems unlikely

 

( zero hedge)

( Breitbart/Mathew Boyle)

iii) No wonder Illinois is broke:  they have 63,000 public employees with salaries $100,000 or greater.  This is costing the state just for those people over 10 billion dollars

( Forbes/Andrezejewski)

iv)They were hoping for a better core durable goods.  However aircraft orders surge over 131%

( zero hedge)

Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest FELL BY 13,506 CONTRACTS DOWN to an OI level of 450,321 WITH THE  FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($2.25 with YESTERDAY’S trading). The liquidation in the total gold comex has now resumed. The comex gold longs relinquished their comex contracts for 13,506 EFP’s which entitles the holder to a fiat bonus plus a future deliverable product but on an other exchange, most likely London’s gold forward market  (LBMA)

We are now in the contract month of JULY and it is one of the POORER delivery months  of the year. .

The non active July contract LOST 14 contract(s) to stand at 5 contracts. We had only 14 notices filed YESTERDAY morning, so we GAINED 0 contracts or an additional 0 oz will stand in this non active month of July.  Thus 0 EFP notice(s) were given for July which gives the long holder a fiat bonus plus a futures contract for delivery and most likely these are London based forwards.  The contracts are private so we do not get to see all the particulars. The next big active month is August and here the OI LOST 33,423 contracts DOWN to 75,246, as this month winds down prior to first day notice, Monday July 31.  The next non active contract month is September and here they GAINED 127 contract to stand at 1057. The next active delivery month is October and here we gained 77933 contracts up to 38,052.  October is the poorest of the active gold delivery months as most players move right to December.

We had 4 notice(s) filed upon today for 400 oz

For those keeping score: in the upcoming front delivery month of August:

On July 27.2017:  open interest for the front month: 75,246 contracts compared to July 27.2016:   88,176.

THERE ARE 2 MORE READING DAYS BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE, MONDAY JULY 310.2017

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And now for the wild silver comex results.  Total silver OI ROSE BY 1352 contracts FROM 206,347 up to 207,699 WITH YESTERDAY’S  9 CENT LOSS (AND DESPITE CONSTANT TORMENT THESE PAST FEW WEEKS). OUR BANKER FRIENDS ARE DESPERATELY TRYING TO COVER THEIR SHORTS IN SILVER BUT AS YOU CAN SEE  THEY HAVE NOT BEEN AS SUCCESSFUL AS THEY WOULD HAVE LIKED. THE SHORT SPECULATORS WERE ALSO TRYING TO COVER THEIR SHORTS ALONG WITH THE BANKERS BUT TO NO AVAIL. THE BANKERS HAD NO CHOICE BUT TO SUPPLY THE NECESSARY PAPER AS THEY WERE ORCHESTRATING THEIR NORMAL RAID ON COMEX OPTIONS EXPIRY. THIS IS WHY THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE DESPITE THE DROP IN SILVER PRICE. HOWEVER IT DID NOT STOP HUNGRY PLAYERS SEEKING REAL PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE BELOW)

We are now in the next big active month will be July and here the OI GAINED 39 contracts RISING TO 112. We had 21 notices served  yesterday so we gained 60 CONTRACTS or an additional  300,000 oz will stand at the comex, and 0 EFP contracts were issued which entitles them to receive a fiat bonus and a future delivery contract (which no doubt is a London based forward).

The month of August, a non active month LOST 35 contracts to stand at 452.  The next big active delivery month for silver will be September and here the OI LOST ANOTHER 298 contracts DOWN to 146,459.

The line in the sand is $18.50 for silver and again it has been defended by the criminal bankers.  Once this level is pierced, the monstrous billion oz of silver shorts will blow up. The bankers are defending the Alamo with their last stand at the $18.50 mark. THE NEW RECORD HIGH IN OPEN INTEREST WAS SET FRIDAY APRIL 21/2017 AT:  234,787.

As for the July contracts:

Initial amount that stood for silver for the July 2016 contract:  14.785 million  oz

Final standing JULY 2016:  12.370 million with the difference being EFP’s taking delivery in London.  Thus we have an increasing amount of silver standing in comparison to what happened a year ago

amt standing tonight: 16.410 million oz.

We had 112 notice(s) filed for 560,000 oz for the June 2017 contract

VOLUMES: for the gold comex

Today the estimated volume was 200,552 contracts which is fair/

Yesterday’s confirmed volume was 376,061 contracts  which is HUGE

volumes on gold are STILL HIGHER THAN NORMAL!

Initial standings for JULY

 July 27/2017.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz   nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz  
12,800.000 oz
400  KILOBARS
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL  oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz 
64,322.587 oz
 hsbc
No of oz served (contracts) today
 
4 notice(s)
400 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
1 contracts
100 oz
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
175 notices
17500 oz
.5443 tonnes
Total accumulative withdrawals  of gold from the Dealers inventory this month   NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month   150,027.5 oz
Today we HAD  1 kilobar transaction(s)/ 
We had 0 deposit into the dealer:
total dealer deposits: nil oz
We had nil dealer withdrawals:
total dealer withdrawals:  0 oz
we had no dealer deposits:
total dealer deposits:  nil oz
we had 1  customer deposit(s):
 i) Into HSBC: 64,311.587  oz
total customer deposits; 64,311.587  oz
this is the 4th day in a row that  a huge amount of gold enters the comex gold
We had 1 customer withdrawal(s)
i) Out of Scotia:  12,860.000 oz
total customer withdrawals; 12,860.000 oz
 we had 0 adjustment(s)
 
For JULY:

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 4  contract(s)  of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

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To calculate the initial total number of gold ounces standing for the JULY. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (175) x 100 oz or 17,500 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE (5 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (4) x 100 oz per contract equals 17,600  oz, the number of ounces standing in this NON active month of JULY.
 
Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY contract month:
No of notices served so far (175) x 100 oz  or ounces + {(5)OI for the front month  minus the number of  notices served upon today (4) x 100 oz which equals 17,600 oz standing in this  active delivery month of JULY  (0.5474 tonnes)
We GAINED 0 contracts or AN ADDITIONAL 0 oz will stand and 0 EFP contract(s) was issued as described as above.
.
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Total dealer inventory 695,420.097 or 21.63 tonnes  (dealer gold continues to disappear)
Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) = 8,691.779.684 or 270.35 tonnes 
 
Over a year ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today the total inventory rests at 270.35 tonnes for a  loss of 33  tonnes over that period.  Since August 8/2016 we have lost 84 tonnes leaving the comex. However I am including kilobar transactions and they are very suspect at best.
I have a sneaky feeling that these withdrawals of gold in kilobars are being used in the hypothecating process  and are being used in the raiding of gold!

The gold comex is an absolute fraud.  The use of kilobars and exact weights makes the data totally absurd and fraudulent! To me, the only thing that makes sense is the fact that “kilobars: are entries of hypothecated gold sent to other jurisdictions so that they will not be short with their underwritten derivatives in that jurisdiction.  This would be similar to the rehypothecated gold used by Jon Corzine at MF Global.
 
IN THE LAST 11 MONTHS  84 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.
end
And now for silver
AND NOW THE June DELIVERY MONTH
 
JULY INITIAL standings
 July 27 2017
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory  nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
1,142,069.980 oz
 JPMorgan
Scotia
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil  oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory 
629,404.600 oz
JPM
No of oz served today (contracts)
112 CONTRACT(S)
(560,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contracts
( NIL oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 3282 contracts (16,410,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month  NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal  of silver from the Customer inventory this month 3,710,901.0 oz
today, we had  0 deposit(s) into the dealer account:
total dealer deposit: nil   oz
we had 0 dealer withdrawals:
total dealer withdrawals: NIL oz
we had 2 customer withdrawal(s):
i) out of JPM: 300,039.380 oz
ii) Out of Scotia:  811,679.110 oz
TOTAL CUSTOMER WITHDRAWALS:   1,142,069.98 oz
We had 2 Customer deposit(s):
i) Into JPM: 629,404.600 oz
***deposits into JPMorgan have resumes  again
In the month of March and February, JPMorgan stopped (received) almost all of the comex silver contracts.
why is JPMorgan bringing in so much silver??? why is this not criminal in that they are also the massive short in silver
total customer deposits: 629,404.600 oz
 
 we had 0 adjustment(s)
The total number of notices filed today for the JULY. contract month is represented by 112 contract(s) for 560,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3282 x 5,000 oz  = 16,410,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY (112) and the number of notices served upon today (112) x 5000 oz equals the number of ounces standing
 

 

.
 
Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JULY contract month:  3282 (notices served so far)x 5000 oz  + OI for front month of JULY.(112 ) -number of notices served upon today (112)x 5000 oz  equals  16,410,000 oz  of silver standing for the JULY contract month.
We gained ANOTHER 60 contracts for an additional 300,000 oz  that will stand at the comex and 0 EFP’s were issued. THE DELIVERY CYCLE IN JULY IS BEHAVING EXACTLY LIKE THE PREVIOUS MONTHS OF MAY, AND JUNE AS THE AMOUNT STANDING INCREASES EVERY SINGLE DAY AS IT ALSO SURPASSES WHAT WAS STANDING FOR METAL ON THE FIRST DAY OF THE MONTH (12.115 MILLION OZ)
 
 
 
 
Volumes: for silver comex
Today the estimated volume was 33,804 which is GOOD
YESTERDAY’s  confirmed volume was 71,721 contracts which is EXCELLENT
YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 71,721 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO 358 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OR 52% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER EX CHINA EX RUSSIA). IN OUR HEARINGS THE COMMISSIONERS STRESSED THAT THE OPEN INTEREST SHOULD BE AROUND 3% OF THE MARKET.
 
Total dealer silver:  38.433 million (close to record low inventory  
Total number of dealer and customer silver:   214.202 million oz
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017  with the price at that day at  $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
end

NPV for Sprott and Central Fund of Canada

1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative 7.4 percent to NAV usa funds and Negative 7.1% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!! 
Percentage of fund in gold 62.4%
Percentage of fund in silver:37.5%
cash .+0.1%( July 27/2017) 
2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): STOCK   NAV FALLS TO +0.39% (July 27/2017) 
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.61% to NAV  (July 27/2017 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back  into POSITIVE territory at +0.39/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ territory at -0.61%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail  but being rescued by Sprott.

Sprott’s hostile 3.1 billion bid to take over Central Fund of Canada

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

Sprott makes hostile $3.1 billion bid for Central Fund of Canada

 Section: Daily Dispatches

From the Canadian Press
via Canadian Broadcasting Corp. News, Toronto
Wednesday, March 8, 2017

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/sprott-takeover-bid-central-fund-c…

Toronto-based Sprott Inc. said Wednesday it’s making an all-share hostile takeover bid worth $3.1 billion US for rival bullion holder Central Fund of Canada Ltd.

The money-management firm has filed an application with the Court of Queen’s Bench of Alberta seeking to allow shareholders of Calgary-based Central Fund to swap their shares for ones in a newly-formed trust that would be substantially similar to Sprott’s existing precious metal holding entities.

The company is going through the courts after its efforts to strike a friendly deal were rebuffed by the Spicer family that controls Central Fund, said Sprott spokesman Glen Williams.

“They weren’t interested in having those discussions,” Williams said.

 Sprott is using the courts to try to give holders of the 252 million non-voting class A shares a say in takeover bids, which Central Fund explicitly states they have no right to participate in. That voting right is reserved for the 40,000 common shares outstanding, which the family of J.C. Stefan Spicer, chairman and CEO of Central Fund, control.

If successful through the courts, Sprott would then need the support of two-thirds of shareholder votes to close the takeover deal, but there’s no guarantee they will make it that far.

“It is unusual to go this route,” said Williams. “There’s no specific precedent where this has worked.”

Sprott did have success last year in taking over Central GoldTrust, a similar fund that was controlled by the Spicer family, after securing support from more than 96 percent of shareholder votes cast.

The firm says Central Fund’s shares are trading at a discount to net asset value and a takeover by Sprott could unlock US$304 million in shareholder value.

Central Fund did not have any immediate comment on the unsolicited offer. Williams said Sprott had not yet heard from Central Fund on the proposal but that some shareholders had already contacted them to voice their support.

Sprott’s existing precious metal holding companies are designed to allow investors to own gold and other metals without having to worry about taking care of the physical bullion.

end

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD

July 27/LATE LAST NIGHT, A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.03 TONNES WITH GOLD UP $10.45 ON THE DAY/

July 26/NO CHANGE IN GLD INVENTORY WITH GOLD DOWN $2.55/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.45 TONNES

July 25/A MASSIVE 9.17 TONNES OF GOLD WITHDRAWN FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.45 TONNES

July 24/A massive 9.62 tonnes withdrawal and yet the price remains constant (down only 25 cents)..inventory drops to 809.62 tonnes

July 21/with gold up $8.75 again, we had no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 816.13 tonnes

July 20/WITH GOLD UP AGAIN TODAY ($3.50) WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 816.13 TONNES

jULY 19/STRANGE!! AGAIN WITH GOLD UP $0.50 WE HAD ANOTHER HUGE 5.32 TONNES WITHDRAWAL FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 816.13 TONNES  THIS GOLD IS HEADING TO SHANGHAI

July 18/STRANGE AGAIN/WITH GOLD UP $7.50 WE HAD ANOTHER HUGE 5.62 TONNES WITHDRAWAL FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 821.45 TONNES

July 17/strange again! with gold up $4.20 we had another huge withdrawal of 1.77 tonnes/inventory rests at 827.07 tonnes

July 14/strange@!!with gold up $12.00 today, we had a huge withdrawal of 3.55 tonnes/inventory rests at 828.84 tonnes

July 13/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 832.39 tonnes

JULY 12/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 832.39 tonnes

July 11/strange!@! we had a big withdrawal of 2.96 tonnes despite gold’s advance today/inventory rests tonight at 832.39 tonnes

July 10/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 835.35 tonnes

July 7/a massive withdrawal of 5.32 tonnes of paper gold were removed and this was used in the attack today/inventory rests at 835.35 tonnes

July 6/no changes in tonnage at the GLD/Inventory rests at 840.67 tonnes

July 5/A MASSIVE 5.62 TONNES OF GOLD LEFT THE GLD AND NO DOUBT WAS USED IN THE RAID THIS MORNING/INVENTORY REST

July 3/ A MASSIVE 7.37 TONNES OF GOLD LEAVE THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.29 TONNES

June 30/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 853.66 tonnes

June 29/no change in inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 853.66 tonnes

June 28/no change in inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 853.66 tonnes

June 27.2017/a deposit of 2.64 tonnes into the GLD/inventory rests at 853.66 tonnes

June 26/a withdrawal of 2.66 tonnes from the GLD and this gold no doubt was part of the raid/Inventory rests at 851.02

June 23/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 853.68 tonnes

June 22/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 853.68 tonnes

June 21/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 853.68 tonnes

June 20/no  change in gold inventory at the GLD//Inventory rests at 853.68 tonnes

June 19/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 853.68 TONNES

June 16/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 853.68 tonnes

June 15/ a monstrous “paper” withdrawal of 13.32 tonnes/Inventory rests at 853.68 tonnes

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
July 27 /2017/ Inventory rests tonight at 795.42 tonnes
*IN LAST 198 TRADING DAYS: 154.82 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 139 TRADING DAYS: A NET  27.39 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN WITHDRAWN FROM  GLD INVENTORY.
*FROM FEB 1/2017: A NET  14.20 TONNES HAVE BEEN WITHDRAWN.

end

Now the SLV Inventory

July 27/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 343.812 MILLION OZ WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY.

July 26/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 343.812 MILLION OZ

July 25/A MASSIVE 3.309 MILLION OZ OF INVENTORY WITHDRAWN FROM THE SLV DESPITE SILVER’S 10 CENT RISE TODAY.

July 24/no change in silver inventory despite its 4 cent drop/inventory remains at 347.121 million oz

July 21/STRANGE! WITH SILVER UP AGAIN TODAY (11 CENTS), NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/inventory 347.121 million oz/

July 20/STRANGE! WITH SILVER UP AGAIN TODAY, THE SLV INVENTORY LOWERS BY 945,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 347.121 MILLION OZ/

July 19/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 348.066 MILLION OZ

July 18/a huge 946,000 oz withdrawal from the SLV despite silver’s 16 cent gain!

Inventory rests at 348.066 million oz

July 17/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 349.012 million oz

July 14/no change in silver inventory/inventory rests at 349.012 million oz/

July 13/no change in silver inventory/inventory at the SLV rests at 349.012 million oz/

JULY 12/another massive 1.986 million oz of silver added into the SLV/inventory rests at 349.012 million oz/the last 3 days saw 7.281 million oz added into the SV

July 11/ANOTHER MASSIVE INCREASE OF 2.364 MILLION OZ into the SLV inventory/inventory rests at 347.026 million oz

July 10/ A HUGE INCREASE OF 2.931 MILLION OZ OF SILVER DESPITE THE EARLY HIT ON SILVER THIS MORNING/INVENTORY RESTS AT 344.662 MILLION OZ.

July 7/Strange: no change in inventory (compare that with gold) Inventory rests at 341.731 million oz

July 6/ANOTHER MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.126 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 341.731 MILLION OZ.

July 5/STRANGE! NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 339.605 MILLION OZ

July 3/strange! with the huge whacking of silver we got an increase of 379,000 oz into inventory.

June 30/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 339.226 million oz

June 29/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 339.226 million oz/

June 28/ a small withdrawal of 662,000 oz form the SLV/Inventory rests at 339.226 million oz/

June 27/no change in the silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 339.888 million oz/

June 26/no change in the silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 339.888 million oz/

June 23/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 339.888 million oz

June 22/ a big change; a huge deposit of 2.175 million oz into the SLV/Inventory rests at 339.888 million oz

June 21/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 337.713 million oz

June 20/a deposit of 1.513 million oz/inventory rests at 337.713 million oz/.

June 19/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 336.200 MILLION OZ

June 16/no changes in inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 336.200 million oz

June 15/ a massive “paper withdrawal” of 3.405 million oz of silver/Inventory rests at 336.200 million oz/

July 27.2017:
 Inventory 343.812  million oz
end
  • 6 Month MM GOFO

    Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration

    + 1.22%
  • 12 Month MM GOFO
    + 1.42%
  • 30 day trend

end

Here is a review of the 3 latest comex waterfall (whacks) on gold and silver not including the current one we are undergoing.  I have taken the nadir of the gold price before it started to rise again and compared it to OI in both gold and silver with the OPEN INTEREST.  The OI readings are the following day but we are always one day behind so this compares exactly to the nadir price.
First waterfall ended Oct 6 2016/ Nadir price of gold at that date Oct 6 2016 : $1254.70 / OI for gold Oct 7/2016: 511,340//OI for silver/Oct 7.2016: 194,811
Second waterfall ended Dec 15.2016:Nadir Price of gold Dec 15.2016:      $1128.20              //OI for gold Dec 16/2016 401,798// OI for silver: Dec 16/16 161,570
Third waterfall ended May 10/2017: Nadir Price of gold May 10 2016:   $1220.95              //  OI for gold May 11: 425,252//  OI for silver May 11/17: 199,826
and for comparison while we are undergoing another waterfall these past several weeks
 Today’s price of gold $1258.25                                                                                                    OI for gold today: 450,321//Oi for silver  207,699
The first waterfall corresponds to a silver price of $17.30 on Oct 6
The second waterfall corresponds to a silver price of $15.90 on Dec 15
The third waterfall corresponds to a silver price of $17.37 on May 10
and today:  silver price of $16.70
Since the bottom of the second waterfall the price of gold at its nadir is about the same ($1220 and $1226), but the OI for gold is much higher along with silver OI also much higher. (425,252 and 450,321 OI for gold) accompanying  199,826 and 207,699 for silver)
It seems the data suggests power manipulation to control the price through paper!

END

Major gold/silver trading/commentaries for THURSDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.

GOLD/SILVER

Gold A Good Store Of Value – Protect From $217 Trillion Global Debt Bubble

– ‘Mother of all debt bubbles’ keeps gold in focus
– Global debt alert: At all time high of astronomical $217 T
– India imports “phenomenal” 525 tons in first half of 2017
– Record investment demand – ETPs record $245B in H1, 17
– Investors, savers should diversify into “safe haven” gold
– Gold good ‘store of value’ in coming economic contraction

by Frank Holmes, U.S. Global Investors

Gold’s medium- to long-term investment case, I believe, looks even brighter. Many unsettling risks loom on the horizon—not least of which is a record amount of global debt—that could potentially spell trouble for the investor who hasn’t adequately prepared with some allocation in a “safe haven.”

According to the highly-respected Institute of International Finance (IIF), global debt levels reached an astronomical $217 trillion in the first quarter of 2017—that’s 327 percent of world gross domestic product (GDP). Notice that before the financial crisis, global debt was “only” around $150 trillion, meaning we’ve added close to $120 trillion in as little as a decade. Much of the leveraging occurred in emerging markets, specifically China, which is spending big on international infrastructure projects.

It goes without saying that this is a huge risk. Some are calling this mountain of debt “the mother of all bubbles,” and we all remember how the last two bubbles ended, in 2000 (the tech or dotcom bubble) and 2007 (the housing bubble).

Paying down this debt will not be easy. As Scotiabank mentioned in a note last week: “Higher interest rates are going to make the burden of refinancing the debt considerably heavier, and as more money goes into servicing the debt, it means less money is available to spend on other things, which could lead to less infrastructure spending and increased austerity.”

Add to this the fact that global pension levels are also sharply on the rise, with people living longer and population growth—and therefore workforce growth—slowing in many advanced economies. In May, the World Economic Forum (WEF) estimated that by 2050, the size of the retirement savings gap—unfunded pensions, in other words—could be as much as $400 trillion, an unimaginably large number.

The U.S. alone adds about $3 trillion every year to the pension deficit. I shared with you earlier in the month that the State of Illinois’s unfunded pensions could be as high as $250 billion, putting each Illinoisan on the hook for $56,000.

Central banks’ efforts to promote economic growth through monetary easing haven’t exactly been a raging success, nor can they continue forever. Plus, near-zero interest rates are precisely what encouraged such inflated levels of borrowing in the first place.

Conclusion
You can probably tell where I’m headed with all of this. Another crisis could be in the works. Savvy investors and savers might very well see this as a sign to allocate a part of their portfolios in “safe haven” assets that have historically held their value in times of economic contraction.

Gold is one such asset that’s been a good store of value in such times, and gold stocks have tended to outperform the yellow metal as production costs have fallen, according to Seabridge Gold. I always recommend a 10 percent weighting in gold—5 percent in bars and coins; 5 percent in gold stocks, mutual funds or ETFs.

This is an excerpt. Read the original article on U.S. Global Investors.

News and Commentary

Gold rises to 6-week high following Fed statement (FT.com)

Spot Gold Advances as Fed Holds Rates Steady, Assesses Inflation (Bloomberg.com)

Fed holds rates steady, expects to cut balance sheet ‘relatively soon’ (Reuters.com)

Gold steady as global stocks rise and dollar firms (Reuters.com)

Greece arrests Russian suspected of running $4 billion bitcoin laundering ring (Reuters.com)

TGold volatility at lowest level since 2005 and price surge from 2006 to 2012. Source Bloomberg

Gold volatility at lowest level since 2005 and price surge from 2006 to 2012 (Bloomberg.com)

The “Chuck Prince Market” Redux — Only More Dangerous (DailyReckoning.com)

Bankers Ditch Fat Salaries to Chase Digital Currency Riches (Bloomberg.com)

Reconciling the US Dollar Outlook with the Super Bullish Gold and Silver COTs (StreetWiseReports.com)

Global Monetary Policy Still “Insanely” Easy (DollarCollapse.com)

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

27 Jul: USD 1,262.05, GBP 960.29 & EUR 1,076.53 per ounce
26 Jul: USD 1,245.40, GBP 956.72 & EUR 1,071.29 per ounce
25 Jul: USD 1,252.00, GBP 960.78 & EUR 1,074.59 per ounce
24 Jul: USD 1,255.85, GBP 962.99 & EUR 1,077.64 per ounce
21 Jul: USD 1,247.25, GBP 958.89 & EUR 1,071.39 per ounce
20 Jul: USD 1,236.55, GBP 953.63 & EUR 1,075.06 per ounce
19 Jul: USD 1,239.85, GBP 950.84 & EUR 1,074.83 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

27 Jul: USD 16.79, GBP 12.77 & EUR 14.34 per ounce
26 Jul: USD 16.37, GBP 12.54 & EUR 14.06 per ounce
25 Jul: USD 16.31, GBP 12.52 & EUR 14.00 per ounce
24 Jul: USD 16.50, GBP 12.66 & EUR 14.17 per ounce
21 Jul: USD 16.43, GBP 12.63 & EUR 14.11 per ounce
20 Jul: USD 16.18, GBP 12.50 & EUR 14.07 per ounce
19 Jul: USD 16.23, GBP 12.44 & EUR 14.08 per ounce

Recent Market Updates

– Why Surging UK Household Debt Will Cause The Next Crisis
– Gold Seasonal Sweet Spot – August and September – Coming
– Commercial Property Market In Dublin Is Inflated and May Burst Again
– Gold Hedges Against Currency Devaluation and Cost Of Fuel, Food, Beer and Housing
– Millennials Can Punt On Bitcoin, Own Gold and Silver For Long Term
– “Time To Position In Gold Is Right Now” says Jim Rickards
– Bloomberg Silver Price Survey – Median 12 Month Forecast Of $20
– “Bigger Systemic Risk” Now Than 2008 – Bank of England
– “Financial Crisis” Coming By End Of 2018 – Prepare Urgently
– Video – “Gold Should Probably Be $5000” – CME Chairman
– India Gold Imports Surge To 5 Year High – 220 Tons In May Alone
– “Silver’s Plunge Is Nearing Completion”
– China, Russia Alliance Deepens Against American Overstretch

end

Amazing:  Bankers are ditching their fat salaries to chase cryptocurrencies

 

(courtesy Chen/Russo/Bloomberg/GATA)

Bankers ditch fat salaries to chase digital currency riches

 Section: 

By Lulu Yilun Chen and Camila Russo
Bloomberg News
Tuesday, July 25, 2017

Richard Liu gave up a seven-figure salary this month to get into one of the hottest financial instruments around right now: initial coin offerings. The former China Renaissance deal maker has since backed a clutch of cryptocoin sales that have raised millions — sometimes in seconds — often without a single product.

From Hong Kong and Beijing to London, accomplished financiers are abandoning lucrative careers to plunge into the murky world of ICOs, a way to amass quick money by selling digital tokens to investors sans banks or regulators. Cut out of the action, a growing cohort of banking professionals are instead applying their talents toward buying or hawking cryptocurrency.

They are going in with eyes wide open. For Liu, who put together some of China’s biggest tech deals in his old job, the chance to shape the nascent arena outweighs the dangers of a market crash or crackdown. Loosely akin to IPOs, ICOs have raised millions from investors hoping to get in early on the next bitcoin or ether, and their unchecked growth over the past year is such that they have drawn comparisons to the first ill-fated dot-com boom. Yet with stratospheric bonuses largely a thing of the past, the allure of an incandescent new arena far from financial red-tape has proven irresistible to some. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-25/bankers-ditch-fat-sal…

 

 

END

 

 

Very important:  Bullion star’s Ronan Manly highlights how China is accumulating massive amounts of gold on the international market probably equating to around 500 tonnes per year. Gold purchased on the international market is secret to China as they will not divulge those purchases. This gold is different to the 2000 tonnes of gold imported into the SGE  which is for citizens only.

 

This differs a little from Alasdair Macleod who believes that China has already amassed over 20,000 tonnes of gold from 1984 onward. Both Alasdair and Manly agree that no sovereign gold is purchased through the SGE. Manly believes that China has around 3800 tonnes-4900 tonnes.

 

(courtesy Ronan Manly/Bullionstar/GATA)

Bullion Star: China’s secretive accumulation of gold on the international market

 Section: 

9:40p ET Wednesday, July 26, 2017

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Bullion Star today reviews the evidence that China has been accumulating much more gold as semi-official reserves than the country has been reporting. Bullion Star’s analysis is headlined “People’s Bank of China Gold Purchases: Secretive Accumulation on the International Market” and it’s posted at Bullion Star here:

https://www.bullionstar.com/gold-university/chinese-central-bank-gold-bu…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

 

Libor is not a very good indicator as to risks among banks and loans to each other.  Libor will be phased out in 2021 and it will be replaced with another reliable indicator.

 

(courtesy Ring/Bloomberg/GATA)

LIBOR to end in 2021 as regulator says bank benchmark is untenable

 Section: 

By Suzi Ring
Bloomberg News
Thursday, July 27, 2017

Libor, the benchmark underpinning more than $350 trillion of financial products, will be phased out by the end of 2021 as U.K. regulators and banks look to replace the scandal-tarred indicator with a more reliable system.

Andrew Bailey, the head of the Financial Conduct Authority, said today that the rate isn’t sustainable because of a lack of transactions providing data. Libor became a byword for corruption after traders were caught manipulating the benchmark, leading to about $9 billion in fines and the conviction of several bankers.

“We do not think we will complete the journey to transaction-based benchmarks if markets continue to rely on Libor in its current form,” Bailey said in a speech at Bloomberg’s London headquarters. “Panel bank support for current Libor until end-2021 will enable a transition that can be planned and can be executed smoothly.” …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-27/libor-to-end-in-2021-…

 

 

END

 

Be careful when you view the recent rise in copper prices.  It may be just speculative and not fundamental increase in use of this metal.

(courtesy zero hedge)

 

Dr.Copper’s False Hope – “We’ve Seen All This Before, Too Many Times”

Copper prices surged to the highest levels since May 2015 in the last few days, prompting the ubiquitous “must mean the economy is doing well”narrative from every hope-fuelled reflationist. There’s just one problem, we’ve seen all this before too many times.

The most recent spike in copper prices has been explained by the news that China may ban imports of some scrap metal, including copper, from the end of 2018, according to an industry association notice, which may lead to higher refined copper imports into the world’s largest consumer of the metal. As Reuters reports, the review of copper scrap imports is part of a broader crackdown by China authorities on imports of foreign waste as it looks to cut pollution from heavy industries to clear its skies.

The recycling branch of the China NonFerrous Metals Industry Association said on Tuesday that it had received a notice that at the end of 2018 imports of scrap metal including wire, motors and bulk scrap metal will be prohibited, according to a copy of an informal Association message sent to members of its WeChat group reviewed by Reuters.

 

“The market is reacting to the news about China banning scrap cables, scrap motor and other scrap metals from the end of next year, which could block a lot of copper supply into China,” said analyst Li Chunlan at consultancy CRU in Beijing.

However, that narrative does not hold water…

Antaike, a metals research institute under the Association, said that the ban would likely affect less than 1 million tonnes of imports that market participants are speculating could be impacted.

 

That is because the type of scrap affected by the ban only accounted for about 300,000 tonnes of China’s total 3.35 million tonnes of scrap copper imports in 2016, it said in a report.

So Reuters resorts to Dr.Copper’s Economics PhD…

Metals were also supported by a better demand outlook from China after second-quarter growth beat expectations and the International Monetary Fund raised the country’s 2017 growth forecast.

But, just like it did in November of last year after President Trump’s election, Volume in Chinese copper contracts is massively outpacing Open Interest, suggesting this latest surge is as much speculation-driven as fundamental hope.

Perhaps there is another driver of copper’s rise?

The rise and fall in China’s credit impulse that has been so highly correlated (on a lagged basis) with copper for the last eight years…

 

Alhambra’s Jeffrey Snider has some excellent in-depth insight for the fallacies of Dr.Copper’s economic inisghts…

Copper prices are up very sharply today, igniting across markets a reborn “reflation.” Treasuries along with eurodollar futures have been stuck in anti-“reflation” for quite some time. Copper, on the other hand, is not just now breaking from the pack. Going back to May 9, this important economic indication has been so far steadily bucking the trend.

When we talk about Dr. Copper it is important to settle on terms. When the price surged way out of historical proportions back in 2005, it was assumed that was in relation to the US housing mania. But 2005 was the top of that bubble, not the start. Instead, copper was reacting to the other part of the eurodollar-driven global imbalance – EM construction, especially China.

The first of China’s so-called ghost cities was begun around that time, with Communist authorities shifting state investment toward urbanization at the fastest possible rate. From the perspective of 2005, continued rapid growth was expected indefinitely. The export/industrial engine of China’s economy required workers, meaning the migration of hundreds of millions of subsistence farmers out of the rural fields and into modern cities already awaiting them.

Thus, copper’s peak in early 2011 coincides with perceptions (including those relating to global money) about how many new “ghost cities” China might still have yet to build. If the global recovery after the Great “Recession” was to be delayed, the Chinese might not need in the foreseeable future much more by way of new construction. The price of copper is therefore in large part a proxy for China’s view of that paradigm (especially given copper’s role in construction finance as collateral).

That perspective had only dimmed through the “rising dollar” period as it was realized there was the nontrivial economic risk the world economy might not recover at allCopper sank all the way back under $2 during the worst of the 2015-16 downturn the metal was no longer pricing as a recession.

“Reflation” in copper terms, therefore, is and so far has been about just what that might mean. In other words, how will the Chinese react to a truly changed economic paradigm?

One possibility is that authorities will be provoked to try to bubble their way out. Another is that the internal Chinese economy can replace as its center the once all-important manufacturing business (rebalancing). In both those possibilities there is required RMB. Any possible change in PBOC policy, public or not, can be a catalyst toward shifting baselines, low as they might be at this point.

Publicly the central bank is still neutral; in reality, CNY suggests something else; at least for RMB. The currency exchange rate has risen against the dollar more resolutely since Moody’s dared downgrade China’s debt back in May. But the start of CNY’s appreciation was May 9.

There really isn’t any other basis for copper’s behavior this far in 2017. Many if not most economic projections are still more favorable, but that really doesn’t mean all that much. The OECD, for example, raised its global trade outlook for 2017 and 2018 at its last update last month.

In November, their economic models projected $23.5 trillion in total world trade (volume) in 2017, and $24.3 trillion in 2018. As of June, those estimates were upgraded to $24.0 trillion and $25.0 trillion, respectively. A $700 billion upgrade for next year sounds terrific and surely substantial, but in context it is revealed as both a rounding error as well as a repeat of these intermittent bursts of upgraded optimism that always fail (“reflation”).