August 16/Trump’s manufacturing advisory panel disbands after many participants left earlier: sends gold and silver skyrocketing/Gold up $3.55 to 1277.55 and silver up to $16.95 for a gain of 25 cents/in access trading: gold at $1282.00 and silver at 17.08/FOMC minutes: low inflation which generally means no wage inflation/ They will announce next month the normalization of their balance sheet/no rate hike for September/

GOLD: $1277.55  UP $3.85

Silver: $16.95  UP 25 cent(s)

Closing access prices:

Gold $1282.95

silver: $17.11

SHANGHAI GOLD FIX:  FIRST FIX  10 15 PM EST  (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SECOND FIX:  2:15 AM EST  (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1278.74 DOLLARS PER OZ

NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME:  $1273.70

PREMIUM FIRST FIX:  $5.04

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SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1274.86

NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1272.60

Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$2.26

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LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX:  5:30 am est  $1270.15

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1270.00 

LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX  10 AM: $1272.25

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. $1273.25 

For comex gold:

AUGUST/

NOTICES FILINGS TODAY FOR APRIL CONTRACT MONTH: 32 NOTICE(S) FOR  3200  OZ.

TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 4579 FOR 457900 OZ  (14.24 TONNES) 

For silver:

AUGUST

 15 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR

75,000  OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 915 for 4,575,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

end

The star today was silver as this metal completely rebuffed all attempts by the crooked bankers who initiated a raid for the 5th consecutive day.  Gold got a spurt when Trump’s entire advisory board was disbanded.  It seems that the entire Trump team is in chaos.

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total open interest SURPRISINGLY FELL AGAIN ONLY  950 contracts from 189,478 DOWN TO 187,955 DESPITE THE  HUGE FALL IN THE PRICE THAT SILVER TOOK WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING (DOWN 44 CENT(S) . THE BANKERS PROVIDED THE SHORT PAPER TO INITIATE THE RAID. WITH THE LOWER PRICE NEWBIE SPECS ENTERED FULL BLAST DRIVING THE PRICE A LITTLE HIGHER FROM THEIR LOWS WITH THE COMMERCIALS NEEDING TO SUPPLY THAT PAPER. THE COMMERCIALS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME COVERING…AND  THUS NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST.

 In ounces, the OI is still represented by just UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e.  0.940 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 135% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MAY MONTH/ THEY FILED: 15 NOTICE(S) FOR 75,000  OZ OF SILVER

In gold, the open interest FELL by A TINY 2222 WITH THE HUGE FALL in price of gold ($11.00 LOSS YESTERDAY.)  The new OI for the gold complex rests at 477,921. A raid was called upon yesterday by the bankers and it succeeded in driving the price of gold southbound. The bankers initiated the raid with short paper but newbie longs entered the arena with the lower price. The bankers were not as successful in covering their shorts as they would have liked. They again called for another raid today but that too has failed

we had: 32 notice(s) filed upon for 3200 oz of gold.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD:

Today, no changes in gold inventory:

Inventory rests tonight: 791.01 tonnes

IN THE LAST 23 TRADING DAYS: GLD SHEDS 45.96 TONNES YET GOLD IS HIGHER BY $40.00 . 

SLV

Today: : WE NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY TONIGHT:

INVENTORY RESTS AT 335.825 MILLION OZ

end

.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in silver FALL BY 950 contracts from 188,905 down to 187,955 (AND now A LITTLE FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET ON FRIDAY/APRIL 21/2017 AT 234,787).  I wrote this yesterday: “THE FALL IN OPEN INTEREST WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A HUGE FALL IN PRICE AND IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE ARE WITNESSING BANKER CAPITULATION.  BANKERS ARE LOATHE TO SUPPLY NEW SHORT PAPER AND THE LONGS CONTINUE TO ENTER THE ARENA PURCHASING WHATEVER SILVER THEY CAN AND WILLING TO TAKE ON OUR CROOKED BANKERS. THUS A SMALL DECLINE IN OPEN INTEREST”.  TODAY BANKER CAPITULATION CONTINUES AS SILVER RISES DESPITE THE RAID ATTEMPT.

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

 

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY:  Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late TUESDAY night/WEDNESDAY morning: Shanghai closed DOWN 4.81 POINTS OR 0.15%   / /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 234.11 POINTS OR 0.86% The Nikkei closed DOWN 24.03 POINTS OR 0.12%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.46%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.6950/Oil UP to 47.68 dollars per barrel for WTI and 51.03 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED DEEPLY IN THE GREEN , Offshore yuan trades  6.7020 yuan to the dollar vs 6.6950 for onshore yuan. NOW THE OFFSHORE IS WEAKER  TO THE ONSHORE YUAN/ ONSHORE YUAN WEAKER (TO THE DOLLAR)  AND THE OFFSHORE YUAN IS MUCH WEAKER TO THE DOLLAR AND THIS IS COUPLED WITH THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER DOLLAR. CHINA IS NOT HAPPY TODAY  

3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA

i)NORTH KOREA//USA

Trump praises Kim for a “wise decision” to not threaten the uSA.. (so far)

( zero hedge)

ii0Then just to antagonize Kim Jong Un some more, the USA and Japan hold joint drills over the Korean Peninsula. Both China and North Korea are fuming this morning

 

(courtesy zero hedge)

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

c) REPORT ON CHINA

We knew that this was going to happen:  Indian and Chinese soldiers clash following Chinese incursion on Indian soil.  China claims that it is their territory:

( zero hedge)

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Turmoil in the Euro has Draghi sends a message that he will not announce tapering at his Jackson Hole meeting but he may make his announcement in October.  The Euro tumbles.

( zero hedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)IRAN

A very important commentary:  Iran states that it will restart its nuclear program within hours of new sanctions.  The problem for Iran is basically sanctions which stop the selling of Iranian oil in markets will cripple that country.  It can ill afford new sanctions.  The uSA knows this and wants Iran to stop helping terrorism and their support of terrorist groups like Hezbollah.

 

( zerohedge)

Cash strapped Qatar cuts its holdings in Credit Suisse as the embargo is hurting them considerably
(courtesy zero hedge)

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

(courtesy zero hedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

i)Well that did not take long:  WTI and gasoline both fall as oil production continues to surge

( zero hedge)

8. EMERGING MARKET

VENEZUELA

With his new powers, Maduro can imprison anybody who is a dissident

 

( zerohedge)

9.   PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Three Ukrainian Parliamentarians disclose that between them they own $45 million of bitcoin.

( zero hedge)

ii)Without a valid reason, India bans the exporting of gold.  It seems that India is trying desperately trying to knock on gold again and hurt exporters

( Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

iii)With the next recession looming, central banks better get ready for increasing negative rates:

( Verma/Bloomberg/GATA)

iv)Nico Simons, a Dutch journalist, (mainstream journalist) writes that the LBMA is a front for gold rigging by the central banks.

 

(Nico Simons/GATA)

10. USA Stories

ia) The big announcement from the Fed:

 

the key: they are not getting wage inflation and that is killing them. They will supposedly begin the balance sheet normalization in Sept..good luck to them..

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

i b)If the USA government would remove mortgage deductibility from their taxes, house prices would collapse and put many under water. It would also kill the charitable organizations

 

( zerohedge)

ii)Trump lashes out at Jeff Bezos of Amazon as he states that he is doing great damage to retailers something that we have been pointing out.  He states that he is hurting cities and of course jobs

( zero hedge)
iii)Another dandy commentary from David Stockman.  He tells the real truth behind the strength of the uSA economy.
He feels that the real crunch will come next month when the debt ceiling stops the uSA dead in its tracks and nothing will be done due to the fractured nature of Republicans and the hatred between the Democrats and Republicans
( David Stockman/DailyReckoning)

iv) Seems that June’s starts and permits was another of those false reports:  July reports a huge plunge in both starts and permits as well as a collapse in rental units..the USA economy is not performing well!( zerohedge)

v)As many advisers to the Trump manufacturing council and Policy forum left, the President decided to disband the council in its entirety.  Seems the administration is falling apart.  Gold and silver rise on the news.

( zerohedge)

vi) Jamie Dimon to his staff: He “strongly disagrees with President Trump’s reaction re Charlotteville

( zero hedge)

 

vii)it now seems that a company hired a “crowd” for 25 dollars per hour recruiting political activists and these individuals landed in Charlottesville

 

(courtesy zero hedge)_

Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest FELL BY A tiny 2222 CONTRACTS DOWN to an OI level of 477,921 WITH THE FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($11.00 with TUESDAY’S trading). NEWBIE LONGS ENTERED THE ARENA ESPECIALLY TACKLING THE LOWER PRICE DUE TO THE RAID IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING. THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SUPPLY THE SHORT PAPER.  THE HIGH OPEN INTEREST IN THE GOLD COMPLEX WAS FODDER FOR OUR CROOKS AS THEY TRIED TO SHAKE MANY OF THE GOLD LEAVES FROM THE GOLD TREE.  IT SEEMS THAT THEY FAILED AS THE OPEN INTEREST REMAINED RELATIVELY CONSTANT. THEY ATTEMPTED ANOTHER RAID TODAY AND IT TOO FAILED.

We are now in the contract month of August and it is the 3rd best of the delivery months after December and June.

The active August contract LOST 99 contract(s) to stand at 970 contracts. We had 26 notices filed on YESTERDAY so we LOST A HUGE 64 contracts or an additional 6400 oz will NOT stand at the comex and 64 EFP’s were issued which entitles the long holder to a fiat bonus plus a futures contract and most probably that would be a London based forward.

The non active September contract month saw it’s OI LOSE 62 contracts DOWN to 1382.

The next active contract month is Oct and here we saw a LOSS of 1036 contracts DOWN to 49,690.

The very big active December contract month saw it’s OI LOSE 1147 contracts DOWN to 371,896.

We had 32 notice(s) filed upon today for   3200 oz

For those keeping score: in the upcoming front delivery month of August:

LAST YEAR WE HAD A MONSTROUS 44.7 TONNES OF GOLD INITIALLY.  BY THE CONCLUSION OF THE AUGUST CONTRACT MONTH 44.358 TONNES STOOD FOR DELIVERY.

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And now for the wild silver comex results.  Total silver OI SURPRISINGLY FELL BY ONLY 950 CONTRACTS FROM  188,905 DOWN TO 187,955 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S 44 CENT LOSS.  THERE IS NO QUESTION THAT WE ARE HAVING CONTINUAL BANKER CAPITULATION AS THEIR HUGE SHORTS IN SILVER ARE CHOKING THEM TO DEATH. THE BANKERS INITIATED THE RAID SUPPLYING A GOOD SIZED PAPER SHORT WHICH DROVE THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN. NEWBIE SPEC LONGS ENTERED THE SILVER COMPLEX YESTERDAY WITNESSING WITH GLEE THE LOWER PRICE. ON THE SUPPLY SIDE: THE BANKERS WERE JUST PLAIN FRIGHTENED TO KEEP SUPPLYING THE NECESSARY PAPER. THUS A SMALL  DECLINE IN SILVER OI WITH A HUGE SIZED FALL IN PRICE. ANOTHER RAID WAS CALLED UPON TODAY AND IT TOO FAILED SENDING SILVER SOARING IN PRICE.

We are now in the next big non active silver contract month of August and here the OI FELL 55 contracts DOWN TO 85. We had 70 notice(s) filed yesterday.  Thus we GAINED ANOTHER 15 contract(s) or an additional 75,000 oz will stand for delivery in this non active month of August and AGAIN zero EFP’s were issued for the August contract month. Please note that in gold we continually see EFP’s issued but not in silver!!

The next active contract month is September (and the last active month until December) saw it’s OI fall by 3,194 contacts down to 98,418.  The next non active contract month for silver after September is October and here the OI gained 3 contacts up TO 115. After October, the big active contract month is December and here the OI GAINED by 1,555 contracts UP to 77,887 contracts.

We had 15 notice(s) filed for 75,000 oz for the AUGUST 2017 contract

VOLUMES: for the gold comex

YESTERDAY’S confirmed volume was 29,588 which is good

volumes on gold are STILL HIGHER THAN NORMAL!

Initial standings for AUGUST

 August 16/2017.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz   nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz  
4018.75 oz
Scotia
125 kilobars
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz   oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz 
nil oz
No of oz served (contracts) today
 
32 notice(s)
3200 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
938 contracts
(93,800 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
4579 notices
457,900 oz
14.242 tonnes
Total accumulative withdrawals  of gold from the Dealers inventory this month   NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month   23,769.0  oz
Today we HAD  1 kilobar transaction(s)/ 
total dealer deposits: nil oz
We had nil dealer withdrawals:
total dealer withdrawals:  0 oz
we had 0  customer deposit(s):
total customer deposits;  nil  oz
We had 1 customer withdrawal(s)
i) Out of Scotia:  4018.75 oz
(125 kilobars)
total customer withdrawals;  4018.75 oz
 we had 1 adjustment(s)
 i) Out of Delaware:  295.915 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account of Delaware
 
For AUGUST:

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 32  contract(s)  of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

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To calculate the initial total number of gold ounces standing for the AUGUST. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (4579) x 100 oz or 457,900 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST (970 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (32) x 100 oz per contract equals 551,700  oz, the number of ounces standing in this active month of AUGUST.
 
Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUST contract month:
No of notices served so far (4579) x 100 oz  or ounces + {(970)OI for the front month  minus the number of  notices served upon today (32) x 100 oz which equals 551,700 oz standing in this  active delivery month of AUGUST  (17.160 tonnes)
 we lost 64 contracts or an additional 6400 oz will not stand for delivery and 64 EFP’s for August were issued.(FOR FIAT BONUS PLUS ANOTHER DELIVERABLE CONTRACT WHICH MOST LIKELY IS A LONDON BASED FORWARD)
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Total dealer inventory 758,214.577 or 23.58 tonnes  (dealer gold continues to disappear)
Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) = 8,628,149.002 or 268.37 tonnes 
 
Over a year ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today the total inventory rests at 268.37 tonnes for a  loss of 34  tonnes over that period.  Since August 8/2016 we have lost 85 tonnes leaving the comex. However I am including kilobar transactions and they are very suspect at best.
I have a sneaky feeling that these withdrawals of gold in kilobars are being used in the hypothecating process  and are being used in the raiding of gold!

The gold comex is an absolute fraud.  The use of kilobars and exact weights makes the data totally absurd and fraudulent! To me, the only thing that makes sense is the fact that “kilobars: are entries of hypothecated gold sent to other jurisdictions so that they will not be short with their underwritten derivatives in that jurisdiction.  This would be similar to the rehypothecated gold used by Jon Corzine at MF Global.
 
IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS  85 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.
end
And now for silver
AND NOW THE AUGUST DELIVERY MONTH
 
August initial standings
 August 16  2017
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory  nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
284,367.190 oz
 Scotia
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil  oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory 
2943.700
oz
CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)
15 CONTRACT(S)
(75,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
70 contracts
( 350,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 915 contracts (4,575,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month  NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal  of silver from the Customer inventory this month 2,434,780.8 oz
today, we had  0 deposit(s) into the dealer account:
total dealer deposit: nil   oz
we had 0 dealer withdrawals:
total dealer withdrawals: NIL oz
we had 1 customer withdrawal(s):
ii) out of JPMorgan: 284,367.190 oz
TOTAL CUSTOMER WITHDRAWALS:  284,367.190 oz
We had 0 Customer deposit(s):
***deposits into JPMorgan have stopped  again
In the month of March and February, JPMorgan stopped (received) almost all of the comex silver contracts.
why is JPMorgan bringing in so much silver??? why is this not criminal in that they are also the massive short in silver
total customer deposits: nil oz
 
 we had 0 adjustment(s)
The total number of notices filed today for the AUGUST. contract month is represented by 15 contract(s) for 75,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 915 x 5,000 oz  = 4,575,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST (85) and the number of notices served upon today (15) x 5000 oz equals the number of ounces standing
 

 

.
 
Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the AUGUST contract month:  915 (notices served so far)x 5000 oz  + OI for front month of AUGUST(85 ) -number of notices served upon today (15)x 5000 oz  equals  4,925,000 oz  of silver standing for the AUGUST contract month. This is extremely high for a non active delivery month. Silver is being constantly demanded at the silver comex and we witness again the amount of silver increases daily right from the get go.
We GAINED ANOTHER 15 contracts or an additional 75,000 oz wishes to stand for delivery in this non active month of August and  0 EFP’s were issued for the silver August month.
At this point in the delivery cycle last year on August 16/2016 we had 106.311 contracts standing vs this yr at 98,746.
Last yr on the first day notice for the Sept silver contract we had 17.070 million oz stand for delivery.
By month end:  16.075 million oz/
 
 
 
 
Volumes: for silver comex
YESTERDAY’s  confirmed volume was 111,780 contracts which is OUT OF THIS WORLD
FRIDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 111,780 CONTRACTS WHICH EQUATES TO 558 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OR 80% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER EX CHINA EX RUSSIA). IN OUR HEARINGS THE COMMISSIONERS STRESSED THAT THE OPEN INTEREST SHOULD BE AROUND 3% OF THE MARKET.
 
Total dealer silver:  38.348 million (close to record low inventory  
Total number of dealer and customer silver:   215.737 million oz
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017  with the price at that day at  $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
end

NPV for Sprott and Central Fund of Canada

1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative 5.9 percent to NAV usa funds and Negative 6.1% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!! 
Percentage of fund in gold 62.8%
Percentage of fund in silver:37.2%
cash .+0.0%( August 16/2017) 
2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): STOCK   NAV FALLS TO +0.05% (August 16/2017) 
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -0.55% to NAV  (August 16/2017 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back  into POSITIVE territory at +0.05/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ territory at -0.55%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail  but being rescued by Sprott.

Sprott’s hostile 3.1 billion bid to take over Central Fund of Canada

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

Sprott makes hostile $3.1 billion bid for Central Fund of Canada

 Section: Daily Dispatches

From the Canadian Press
via Canadian Broadcasting Corp. News, Toronto
Wednesday, March 8, 2017

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/sprott-takeover-bid-central-fund-c…

Toronto-based Sprott Inc. said Wednesday it’s making an all-share hostile takeover bid worth $3.1 billion US for rival bullion holder Central Fund of Canada Ltd.

The money-management firm has filed an application with the Court of Queen’s Bench of Alberta seeking to allow shareholders of Calgary-based Central Fund to swap their shares for ones in a newly-formed trust that would be substantially similar to Sprott’s existing precious metal holding entities.

The company is going through the courts after its efforts to strike a friendly deal were rebuffed by the Spicer family that controls Central Fund, said Sprott spokesman Glen Williams.

“They weren’t interested in having those discussions,” Williams said.

 Sprott is using the courts to try to give holders of the 252 million non-voting class A shares a say in takeover bids, which Central Fund explicitly states they have no right to participate in. That voting right is reserved for the 40,000 common shares outstanding, which the family of J.C. Stefan Spicer, chairman and CEO of Central Fund, control.

If successful through the courts, Sprott would then need the support of two-thirds of shareholder votes to close the takeover deal, but there’s no guarantee they will make it that far.

“It is unusual to go this route,” said Williams. “There’s no specific precedent where this has worked.”

Sprott did have success last year in taking over Central GoldTrust, a similar fund that was controlled by the Spicer family, after securing support from more than 96 percent of shareholder votes cast.

The firm says Central Fund’s shares are trading at a discount to net asset value and a takeover by Sprott could unlock US$304 million in shareholder value.

Central Fund did not have any immediate comment on the unsolicited offer. Williams said Sprott had not yet heard from Central Fund on the proposal but that some shareholders had already contacted them to voice their support.

Sprott’s existing precious metal holding companies are designed to allow investors to own gold and other metals without having to worry about taking care of the physical bullion.

end

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD

August 16/no change in gold inventory at the GLD. Inventory rests at 791.01 tonnes

August 15/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 791.01 tonnes

August 14/this is good!!: a gain of 4.14 tonnes of gold into the GLD inventory/the removal of GLD gone to the east has now stopped probably because there is no physical to send/inventory rests at 791.01 tonnes

August 11/no change in gold inventory/Inventory rests at 786.87 tonnes

August 7/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 787.14 tonnes

AUGUST 4/ANOTHER LOSS OF 4.48 TONNES OF GOLD FROM GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 787.14 TONNES.THIS IS A HUGE CRIME SCENE!!

August 3/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 791.88 tonnes

August 2/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 791.88 TONNES

Aug 1/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 791.88 TONNES

July 31/NO CHANGES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 791.88 TONNES

July 28/ANOTHER MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.54 TONNES OF GOLD WITH GOLD UP $9.15/INVENTORY RESTS AT 791.88 TONNES

July 27/LATE LAST NIGHT, A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.03 TONNES WITH GOLD UP $10.45 ON THE DAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 795.42 TONNES

July 26/NO CHANGE IN GLD INVENTORY WITH GOLD DOWN $2.55/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.45 TONNES

July 25/A MASSIVE 9.17 TONNES OF GOLD WITHDRAWN FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.45 TONNES

July 24/A massive 9.62 tonnes withdrawal and yet the price remains constant (down only 25 cents)..inventory drops to 809.62 tonnes

July 21/with gold up $8.75 again, we had no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 816.13 tonnes

July 20/WITH GOLD UP AGAIN TODAY ($3.50) WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 816.13 TONNES

jULY 19/STRANGE!! AGAIN WITH GOLD UP $0.50 WE HAD ANOTHER HUGE 5.32 TONNES WITHDRAWAL FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 816.13 TONNES  THIS GOLD IS HEADING TO SHANGHAI

July 18/STRANGE AGAIN/WITH GOLD UP $7.50 WE HAD ANOTHER HUGE 5.62 TONNES WITHDRAWAL FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 821.45 TONNES

July 17/strange again! with gold up $4.20 we had another huge withdrawal of 1.77 tonnes/inventory rests at 827.07 tonnes

July 14/strange@!!with gold up $12.00 today, we had a huge withdrawal of 3.55 tonnes/inventory rests at 828.84 tonnes

July 13/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 832.39 tonnes

JULY 12/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 832.39 tonnes

July 11/strange!@! we had a big withdrawal of 2.96 tonnes despite gold’s advance today/inventory rests tonight at 832.39 tonnes

July 10/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 835.35 tonnes

July 7/a massive withdrawal of 5.32 tonnes of paper gold were removed and this was used in the attack today/inventory rests at 835.35 tonnes

July 6/no changes in tonnage at the GLD/Inventory rests at 840.67 tonnes

July 5/A MASSIVE 5.62 TONNES OF GOLD LEFT THE GLD AND NO DOUBT WAS USED IN THE RAID THIS MORNING/INVENTORY REST

July 3/ A MASSIVE 7.37 TONNES OF GOLD LEAVE THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.29 TONNES

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
August 16 /2017/ Inventory rests tonight at 791.01 tonnes
*IN LAST 214 TRADING DAYS: 158.87 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 152 TRADING DAYS: A NET  1.44 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN WITHDRAWN FROM  GLD INVENTORY.
*FROM FEB 1/2017: A NET  18.25 TONNES HAVE BEEN WITHDRAWN.

end

Now the SLV Inventory

August 16/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 335.825 million oz/

August 15/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 335.825 million oz.

August 14./no change in silver inventory/inventory rests at 335.825 million/

August 11/no change in silver inventory tonight.  However we lost 3,781 million oz from Tuesday through Thursday. Inventory rests at 335.825 million oz/

August 7/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 339.606 million oz

AUGUST 4/A WITHDRAWAL OF 945,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 339.606 MILLION OZ

August 3/A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,181,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTOR RESTS AT 340.551 MILLION OZ/

August 2/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

INVENTORY RESTS AT 341.732 MILLION OZ/

August 1/A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 945,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 341.732 MILLION OZ/

July 31/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 342.677 million oz

July 28/ A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV DESPITE SILVER BEING UP 11 CENTS TODAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT  342.677 MILLION OZ

July 27/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 343.812 MILLION OZ WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY.

July 26/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 343.812 MILLION OZ

July 25/A MASSIVE 3.309 MILLION OZ OF INVENTORY WITHDRAWN FROM THE SLV DESPITE SILVER’S 10 CENT RISE TODAY.

July 24/no change in silver inventory despite its 4 cent drop/inventory remains at 347.121 million oz

July 21/STRANGE! WITH SILVER UP AGAIN TODAY (11 CENTS), NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/inventory 347.121 million oz/

July 20/STRANGE! WITH SILVER UP AGAIN TODAY, THE SLV INVENTORY LOWERS BY 945,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 347.121 MILLION OZ/

July 19/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 348.066 MILLION OZ

July 18/a huge 946,000 oz withdrawal from the SLV despite silver’s 16 cent gain!

Inventory rests at 348.066 million oz

July 17/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 349.012 million oz

July 14/no change in silver inventory/inventory rests at 349.012 million oz/

July 13/no change in silver inventory/inventory at the SLV rests at 349.012 million oz/

JULY 12/another massive 1.986 million oz of silver added into the SLV/inventory rests at 349.012 million oz/the last 3 days saw 7.281 million oz added into the SV

July 11/ANOTHER MASSIVE INCREASE OF 2.364 MILLION OZ into the SLV inventory/inventory rests at 347.026 million oz

July 10/ A HUGE INCREASE OF 2.931 MILLION OZ OF SILVER DESPITE THE EARLY HIT ON SILVER THIS MORNING/INVENTORY RESTS AT 344.662 MILLION OZ.

July 7/Strange: no change in inventory (compare that with gold) Inventory rests at 341.731 million oz

July 6/ANOTHER MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 2.126 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 341.731 MILLION OZ.

July 5/STRANGE! NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 339.605 MILLION OZ

July 3/strange! with the huge whacking of silver we got an increase of 379,000 oz into inventory.

August 16.2017:

 Inventory 335.825  million oz
end
  • 6 Month MM GOFO

    Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration

    + 1.31%
  • 12 Month MM GOFO
    + 1.49%
  • 30 day trend

end

Major gold/silver trading/commentaries for WEDNESDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.

GOLD/SILVER

World’s Largest Hedge Fund Bridgewater Buys $68 Million of Gold ETF In Q2

– World’s largest hedge fund Bridgewater buys $68 million of gold ETF in Q2
– Investors poured $870 million into SPDR Gold in Q2

– Billionaire Paulson keeps 4.36 million shares in SPDR Gold
– “Risks are now rising and do not appear appropriately priced in” – warns Dalio on Linkedin
– Investors should avoid ETFs and paper gold and own physical gold
Given negative interest rates, companies should consider allocating some of corporate deposits to physical gold as done by Munich Re

From Bloomberg:

Hedge-fund managers including billionaire John Paulson are being rewarded as investor worries over everything from uneven economic data to U.S.-North Korean tensions fuel a rally in bullion.

At the end of June, Paulson & Co. owned 4.36 million shares of SPDR Gold Shares, a U.S. government filing showed Monday. That’s unchanged from the three months through March. Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund, added the ETF to its portfolio in the quarter, with the purchase of 577,264 shares valued at $68.1 million, a regulatory filing showed Aug. 10. Templeton Global Advisors Ltd. boosted its stake in Barrick Gold Corp.

Investors poured $870 million into SPDR Gold in the second quarter, taking the fund’s total assets to $34 billion as U.S. inflation continued to undershoot the Federal Reserve’s target, putting at risk policy makers’ projection for rising interest rates. While the prospect of monetary policy tightening remains, investors recently turned their focus on geopolitical strains as North Korea’s Kim Jong Un threatened the U.S. territory of Guam, boosting demand for bullion as a haven.

“Prospective risks are now rising and do not appear appropriately priced in,” billionaire Ray Dalio, who manages Bridgewater, said in a LinkedIn post, as he recommended investors allocate 5 percent to 10 percent of their assets to gold.

Dalio also flagged rising odds that the U.S. Congress may fail to raise the debt ceiling, “leading to a technical default, a temporary government shutdown, and increased loss of faith in the effectiveness of our political system.”

 Full article on Bloomberg here


Related Content

World’s Largest Reinsurer Buying Gold To Counter Punishing Negative Rates

“Do You Own Gold?” Ray Dalio at CFR: “Oh Yeah, I Do”

Gold Is Undervalued – Leading Money Managers

Gold ETFs or Physical Gold? Hidden Dangers In GLD

News and Commentary

Gold falls on easing North Korea tensions, strong U.S. data (Reuters.com)

Gold prices inch up ahead of minutes from latest Fed meeting (Reuters.com)

Asian Shares Mixed, Korea Advances as Calm Returns (Bloomberg.com)

UK car lenders vulnerable after surge in risky loans – BoE (IrishTimes.com)

‘Deep’ Subprime Car Loans Hit Crisis-Era Milestone (Bloomberg.com)

Bank of America Warns of an ‘Ominous’ Sign for Stocks (Bloomberg.com)

Investors should be looking at gold (Barrons.com)

UK debt tide is rising – how can you avoid drowning? (TheGuardian.com)

Prepare for negative interest rates in the next recession – Rogoff (Telegraph.co.uk)

US dollar’s fall could become a self-fulfilling prophecy (SCMP.com)

Own a few bitcoin but realise it is speculation (StansBerryChurcHouse.com)

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

16 Aug: USD 1,270.15, GBP 985.13 & EUR 1,082.29 per ounce
15 Aug: USD 1,274.60, GBP 986.92 & EUR 1,084.05 per ounce
14 Aug: USD 1,281.10, GBP 987.34 & EUR 1,085.48 per ounce
11 Aug: USD 1,288.30, GBP 993.67 & EUR 1,096.47 per ounce
10 Aug: USD 1,278.90, GBP 985.39 & EUR 1,091.67 per ounce
09 Aug: USD 1,267.95, GBP 974.80 & EUR 1,079.79 per ounce
08 Aug: USD 1,261.45, GBP 967.78 & EUR 1,068.20 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

16 Aug: USD 16.68, GBP 12.96 & EUR 14.25 per ounce
15 Aug: USD 16.89, GBP 13.12 & EUR 14.38 per ounce
14 Aug: USD 16.97, GBP 13.09 & EUR 14.39 per ounce
11 Aug: USD 17.09, GBP 13.18 & EUR 14.53 per ounce
10 Aug: USD 17.08, GBP 13.14 & EUR 14.57 per ounce
09 Aug: USD 16.59, GBP 12.76 & EUR 14.14 per ounce
08 Aug: USD 16.39, GBP 12.57 & EUR 13.87 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– Diversify Into Gold Urges Dalio on Linkedin – “Militaristic Leaders Playing Chicken Risks Hellacious War”
– Gold Has Yet Another Purpose – Help Fight Cancer
– Gold Up 2%, Silver 5% In Week – Gundlach, Gartman and Dalio Positive On Gold
– Great Disaster Looms as Technology Disrupts White Collar Workers
– Gold Sees Safe Haven Gains On Trump “Fire and Fury” Threat
– Silver Mining Production Plummets 27% At Top Four Silver Miners
– Gold Consolidates On 2.5% Gain In July After Dollar Has 5th Monthly Decline
– Gold Coins and Bars See Demand Rise of 11% in H2, 2017
– Greenspan Warns Stagflation Like 1970s “Not Good For Asset Prices”
– What Investors Can Learn From the Japanese Art of Kintsukuroi
– Bitcoin, ICO Risk Versus Immutable Gold and Silver
– This Is Why Shrinkflation Is Making You Poor
– Gold A Good Store Of Value – Protect From $217 Trillion Global Debt Bubble

END

gold trading this afternoon:

 

 

Gold Jumps, Stocks Dump After Trump Disbands CEO Councils

The initial reaction to headlines about President Trump’s councils being disbanded was a leak lower in stocks, but once Trump tweeted, gold spiked and stocks slumped...

 

 

The dollar is sinking and bonds are bid…

 

Three Ukrainian Parliamentarians disclose that between them they own $45 million of bitcoin.

(courtesy zero hedge)

Ukrainian Lawmakers Disclose $45 Million In Bitcoin Holdings

As Ukraine’s crackdown on corruption continues, three lawmakers from Ukraine’s ruling party revealed this week that they own a combined $45 million in bitcoin, according to a report by RIA Novosti, a Russian foreign news service.

Their holdings came to light during mandatory financial disclosures by members of the Ukrainian parliament, part of an IMF-approved strategy to tamp down corruption in Ukraine. The country’s democratic institutions, which were never very robust to begin with, have been further destabilized by the civil war that’s seen pro-Russian separatists seize control of two regions in eastern Ukraine. Lawmakers must now disclose their assets and wealth in an online database.

Dmitry Golubov possesses the most bitcoin, with 8,752 BTC, an amount worth roughly $36 million at current prices, according to CoinDesk.Alexander Urbansky possesses 2,494 BTC, or $10.3 million, while Dmitry Belotserkovets owns 398 BTC, or $1.6 million.

Ukraine’s central bank plans to develop a regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies after discussing the legal implications of the virtual tokens at a meeting next month.  

“The disclosures come as Ukraine inches toward regulating the cryptocurrency.

 

As reported previously, the National Bank of Ukraine – the country’s central bank – revealed last week that the legal implications of cryptocurrencies will be discussed at the next meeting of the Financial Stability Board of Ukraine. That hearing, scheduled for the end of August, will bring together the nation’s financial authorities.

 

It’s unclear at this time exactly what steps the government will ultimately take. Local sources reported last week that a large cache of bitcoin mining machines were confiscated after authorities discovered them at a state-owned facility.”

Ukrainians have been exposed to the vast differences between the fortunes amassed by the country’s politicians and the more modest holdings of those they represent since an anti-corruption reform requiring senior Ukrainian officials to declare their wealth online was implemented late last year.

Some lawmakers have declared millions of dollars in cash. Others said they owned fleets of luxury cars, expensive Swiss watches, diamond jewelry and large tracts of land. These revelations have no doubt undermined public confidence in the country’s government, particularly the ruling party led by President Petro Poroshenko, whose family amassed a fortune in the confectionary business. By comparison, the average salary in Ukraine is just over $200 per month.

Poroshenko – a prominent fixture of the Panama Papers – retains control of a top TV channel and has failed to follow through on his promise to sell off his Roshen chocolate empire due to a lack of foreign interest and a dearth of rich-enough investors in Ukraine itself.

While the online declaration system has been intended to represent a show of good faith that officials are willing to open their finances up to public scrutiny, to be held accountable, and to move away from a culture that tacitly allowed bureaucrats to amass wealth through cronyism and graft, the public reaction has been one of shocked dismay at the extravagant lifestyles conjured up by many of the disclosures.

“We did not expect that this would be such a widespread phenomenon among state officials. I can’t imagine there is a European politician who invests money in a wine collection where one bottle costs over $10,000,” said Vitaliy Shabunin, the head of the non-governmental Anti-Corruption Action Center.

Ukraine’s economy is on track to shrink by about 12 percent this year and only return to marginal growth should the eastern campaign end in 2016. Unrest in the country began back in 2014 when former President Viktor Yanukovich, who was perceived to be too close with Russian President Vladimir Putin, was forced to abdicate. 

 

end

 

Without a valid reason, India bans the exporting of gold.  It seems that India is trying desperately trying to knock on gold again and hurt exporters

(courtesy Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

 

India Bans Gold Exports “Without A Valid Reason”

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

In addition to its crackdown on cash, India stepped up its attack on gold. The aim is to cut down on gold imports. India does that in a roundabout way, by cracking down on exports.

india-gold

Bloomberg reports India Bans Gold Exports Above 22 Carats to Plug Trade Loopholes.

India has banned the export of gold products with purity above 22 carats with immediate effect, a move that the industry sees as a way of curbing irregularities in the trade.

 

The Directorate General of Foreign Trade issued a notice limiting shipments of jewelry, coins and medallions to 22 carats or below, without giving a reason.

 

“The move may be to reduce round-tripping of jewelry and coins, wherein a trader can import the gold coins or jewelry at a lower import tax because of trade agreements with some countries and re-export the same stock without any value addition,” said Ketan Shroff, joint secretary of the India Bullion and Jewellers Association Ltd. The exporters would benefit from not paying the 10 percent import tax currently levied on most inbound shipments of gold, he said.

 

Indian imports are said to have more than doubled last month from a year ago partly due to a jump in purchases from South Korea, with which India has a free-trade agreement. Importers have previously used free-trade treaties with countries such as Thailand and Indonesia to escape the import duty.

Round-Trip Nonsense

The stated round-trip reason is nonsense. If a vendor imported gold then immediately exported it, there would be no gain to the vendor other than random price fluctuations.

Prior to this announcement, a vendor could purchase gold and hold it until he had a profit, betting either on a price rise in gold, or a plunge in the Indian Rupee.

The new rule is not a crackdown on gold exports, it’s a crackdown on gold period. India wants to punish those who trade in gold.

end

 

With the next recession looming, central banks better get ready for increasing negative rates:

(courtesy Verma/Bloomberg)

With recession looming, central banks better make peace with negative rates

 Section: 

By Sid Verma and Cecile Gutscher
Bloomberg News
Tuesday, August 14, 2017

Negative interest rates are back in the spotlight.

Investors and analysts are redoubling their warnings that with global borrowing costs already so low, central banks will need to be prepared to cut interest rates deep into negative territory in the next economic downturn. The message is taking on urgency as anxiety builds that the United States is nearing the end of its current economic expansion cycle.

“I don’t think the central bankers would like to go back into negative rates once they get out of it, but they may well have to during the next recession,” Iain Stealey, the head of global aggregate strategies at JPMorgan Asset Management in London, said in a Bloomberg TV interview Monday. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-08-14/central-banks-told-to..

END

Nico Simons, a Dutch journalist, (mainstream journalist) writes that the LBMA is a front for gold rigging by the central banks.

 

(Nico Simons/GATA)

Nico Simons: LBMA is the front for gold market rigging by central banks

 Section: 

1:51p ET Tuesday, August 15, 2017

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Dutch financial journalist Nico Simons today compiles admissions of central bank involvement with the gold market and concludes that the London Bullion Market Association is just a front for central bank rigging of the price of the monetary metal.

The LBMA, Simons writes, provides central banks with the secrecy necessary for market rigging and this rigging, not any free market, determines the gold price.

Simons’ analysis is headlined “The LBMA Is a Ploy of the Central Bank Community” and it’s posted in PDF format at Money Insights here:

http://moneyinsights.org/wp-content/uploads/20170815-The-LBMA-is-a-ploy-…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight

 
 

1 Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/yuan WEAKER 6.6950 (DEVALUATION SOUTHBOUND   /OFFSHORE YUAN MOVES WEAKER TO ONSHORE AT   6.7020/ Shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 4.81 POINTS OR 0.15%  / HANG SANG CLOSED UP 234.11 POINTS OR 0.86% 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 24.03 POINTS OR 0.12%    /USA: YEN RISES TO 110.77

3. Europe stocks OPENED DEEPLY IN THE GREEN     ( /USA dollar index RISES TO  94.03/Euro DOWN to 1.1707

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS  TO  +.040%/ GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION    !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 114.34/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD FINALLY IN THE POSITIVE/BANK OF JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR YIELD CURVE AS THEY PURCHASE ALL BONDS TO GET TO ZERO RATE!!

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI::  47.68 and Brent: 51.03

3f Gold DOWN/Yen DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS  AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP  for Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO  +.457%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN  to 2.05%    

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES to  : 5.587???  

3k Gold at $1270.55  silver at:16.67 (8:15 am est)   SILVER BELOW  RESISTANCE AT $18.50 

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 21/100 in  roubles/dollar) 59.49-

3m oil into the 47 dollar handle for WTI and 51 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation  (already upon us). This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/China forced to do QE!! as it lowers its yuan value to the dollar/GOT A GOOD SIZED DEVALUATION SOUTHBOUND 

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 110.77 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning  0.9741 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1404 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017 

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to  +0.457%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”.  Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.2728% early this morning. Thirty year rate  at 2.8520% /POLICY ERROR)GETTING DANGEROUSLY HIGH

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)

Global Stocks Rise Amid Unexpected ECB “Trial Balloon”; Dollar Flat Ahead Of Fed Minutes

European markets continued their risk-on mood in early trading for the third day, rising to the highest in over a week and rallying from the open led by mining stocks as industrial metals spike higher after zinc forwards hit highest level since 2007, lifting copper and nickel. The EUR sold off sharply, boosting local bond and risk prices after the previously discussed Reuters “trial balloon” report that Draghi’s speech at Jackson Hole would not announce the start of the ECB’s taper. The EURUSD has found support at yesterdays session low. Bunds have rallied in tandem before gilts drag core fixed income markets lower after U.K. wages data surprises to the upside. Early EUR/JPY push higher through 130.00 supports USD/JPY to come within range of 111.00.

In Asia, Japan’s JGB curve was mildly steeper after the BOJ continued to reduce its purchases of 5-to-10-yr JGBs; the move was consistent with the BOJ’s desire to cut back whenever markets stabilize, according to Takenobu Nakashima, strategist at Nomura Securities Co. in Tokyo. The yen is little changed after rising just shy of 111 overnight. The S.Korean Kospi is back from holiday with gains; The PBOC weakened daily yuan fixing; injects a net 180 billion yuan with reverse repos; the Hang Seng index rose 0.9%, while the Shanghai Composite closed -0.2% lower. Dalian iron ore declines one percent. Japan’s Topix index closed little changed. South Korea’s Kospi index rose 0.6 percent, reopening after a holiday. The Hang Seng Index added 0.8 percent in Hong Kong, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.2 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index advanced 0.5 percent. Singapore’s Straits Times Index was Asia’s worst performer on Wednesday, falling as much as 1.1 percent, as banks and interest-rate sensitive stocks dropped.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.7%, the highest in a week.  The MSCI All-Country World Index increased 0.3%. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index gained 0.6%. Germany’s DAX Index jumped 0.8% to the highest in more than a week. Futures on the S&P 500 Index climbed 0.2% to the highest in a week. Global markets are finally settling down after a tumultuous few days spurred by heightened tensions between the U.S. and North Korea. Miners and construction companies led the way as every sector of the Stoxx Europe 600 advanced as core bonds across the region declined. Crude gained for the first time in three days after industry data was said to show U.S. inventories tumbled 9.2 million barrels last week.

U.S. stock-index futures rise slightly with European and Asian equities and oil. Data include MBA mortgage applications and housing starts. Cisco, Target, L Brands and NetApp are among companies reporting earnings. Italian banks also outperform after HSBC make positive comments on Intesa Sanpaolo and Unicredit.

In overnight macro, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was unchanged after two days of gains and Treasury yields edged higher as European stocks rose and investors awaited minutes of the Fed’s July 25-26 meeting. As shown in the chart below, after “Long USD” was seen as the “most crowded traded” for months until the start of Q2, the BofA Fund Manager Survey respondents now “Short USD” as the second most crowded trade.

In Asia The yen slid a third day against the dollar as market participants positioned themselves ahead of the FOMC minutes and as geopolitical tensions on North Korea abated; Australia’s dollar gained for the first time in three days as traders covered short positions after second-quarter wage data matched estimates, boosting prospects of an upbeat July employment print this week. The pound rose against the dollar as a U.K. labor-market report showed wage growth exceeded the median estimate of economists and unemployment unexpectedly dropped to the lowest since 1975.

The latest European data released overnight showed more nations joined the recovery as the euro-area economy gathers pace. Italy’s economy expanded for a 10th straight quarter, matching estimates of a 0.4% increase while growth in the Netherlands beat economists’ estimates.

Eastern European economies including Romania, the Czech Republic and Poland also exceeded expectations, confirming that a broad-based recovery is taking hold.

In rates, the yield on 10-year Treasuries climbed one basis point to 2.28 percent, the highest in more than two weeks.  Germany’s 10-year yield increased three basis points to 0.46 percent, the highest in more than a week. Britain’s 10-year yield gained four basis points to 1.121 percent, the highest in more than a week.

In today’s key event, minutes from the Fed meeting will be parsed closely; policy makers have indicated they may announce plans to reduce the central bank’s balance sheet in September and then potentially raise interest rates again this year.

Global Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2,468.90
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.8% to 379.51
  • MSCI Asia up 0.2% to 158.83
  • MSCI Asia ex Japan up 0.5% to 523.28
  • Nikkei down 0.1% to 19,729.28
  • Topix down 0.01% to 1,616.00
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.9% to 27,409.07
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3,246.45
  • Sensex up 0.7% to 31,664.31
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 5,785.10
  • Kospi up 0.6% to 2,348.26
  • German 10Y yield rose 1.5 bps to 0.448%
  • Euro down 0.2% to $1.1717
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 2.5 bps to 1.756%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.4 bps to 1.469%
  • Brent futures up 0.7% to $51.16/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.06% to $1,270.71
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.09% to 93.94

Overnight Top News

  • The FOMC minutes may provide a better feel for how many policy makers remain resolved to raise interest rates again this year, and how many are wavering amid a five-month stretch of soft inflation reports
  • Akzo Nobel NV and activist investor Elliott Management agreed to end their legal skirmishes that had dragged the two parties into acrimonious confrontations, giving new Chief Executive Officer Thierry Vanlancker some breathing space to proceed with a planned split of the Dutch paint-and-chemicals maker
  • Uber Technologies Inc. is in exclusive talks to line up funding from four investors, but a deal, which could reach as much as $12 billion, hangs on the outcome of a courtroom brawl between two board members
  • Apollo sweetened terms on nearly $1.8 billion of financing for its buyout of a golf country-club operator after investors pushed back on some of its plans
  • The main derivatives trade group is considering industrywide fixes for the disarray that the demise of Libor could bring to more than $350 trillion of markets
  • China reclaimed its position as the top foreign owner of U.S. Treasuries after increasing its holdings for the fifth straight month
  • UBS Group AG is proposing to charge clients about $40,000 a year to access basic equity research once new regulations known as MiFID II come into effect in January
  • Fed’s Fischer: Will probably be a break between announcement of unwinding of QE and the start of the process; Fed could always press pause if unanticipated circumstances arise: FT
  • ECB President Mario Draghi will not deliver a new policy message at the
    Fed’s Jackson Hole conference, Reuters reports, citing two unidentified
    people familiar with the situation
  • Efforts to loosen constraints on banks 10 years after financial crisis are “dangerous and extremely short-sighted,” Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer says in FT interview
  • Kaplan repeats Fed should be patient on timing of next hike; should start balance sheet unwind very soon
  • ECB’s Hansson: Wage pressures are beginning to emerge despite low
    inflation in the euro area but are “very uneven” across the bloc
  • Trump Again Drags GOP Onto Dangerous Ground, This Time Over Race
  • Euro-area GDP rose 0.6% q/q in 2Q, in line with the median estimate of economists, and was supported by continued growth in Germany, the region’s largest economy, and the strongest Spanish performance in almost two years
  • Holders of credit-default swaps in Banco Popular Espanol SA still haven’t been compensated after the bank’s junior notes were wiped out in Europe’s first forced sale of a failing lender under its new resolution regime
  • German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble doesn’t share opinion of German Federal Constitutional Court about ECB policy, Handelsblatt reports
  • Bank of Japan cut purchases of bonds maturing in five to 10 years by 30 billion yen ($270 million) to 440 billion yen at its regular debt-buying operations on Wednesday
  • The 220 billion-krone ($28 billion) Government Pension Fund Norway, the domestic counterpart of the country’s sovereign wealth fund, is cutting risk as big active bets have lost their luster
  • API inventories according to people familiar w/data: Crude -9.2m; Cushing +1.7m; Gasoline +0.3m; Distillates -2.1m
  • BOJ cuts purchases of 5-to-10 year bonds by 30 billion yen
  • Urban Outfitters Gains After Smaller Chains Prop Up Results
  • Netflix Co-Founder to Sell Ads to Pay for $10 Movie Pass
  • Italian Economy Expands, Boosting Optimism on Recovery

Asia equity markets followed from the indecisive tone seen on Wall Street where quiet newsflow kept stocks rangebound. This resulted to a mixed picture in Asia with the ASX 200 (+0.48%) subdued by several earnings releases, while Nikkei 225 (-0.12%) traded choppy amid a lack of drivers. KOSPI (+0.60%) welcomed the reduced geopolitical tensions on return from holiday, while Shanghai Comp (-0.15%) and Hang Seng (+0.86%) were mixed after lending declined from the prior month and although still surpassed estimates, it was another notch to add to the recent slew of softer Chinese data releases. 10yr JGBs were marginally higher amid an indecisive risk tone in the region, although gains were capped amid a reserved Rinban announcement in which the BoJ continued to reduce its purchases of 5yr-10yr maturities.
PBoC injected CNY 150bln in 7-day reverse repos and CNY 130bln in 14-day reverse repos. PBoC set CNY mid-point at 6.6779 (Prey. 6.6689).

Top Asian News

  • Thailand Keeps Key Rate Unchanged as It Warns of Baht Risk
  • Taiwan President Apologizes for Blackout Affecting Millions
  • Ex-Nomura Man Exiled in Chicago Goes Hostile at Tiny Japan Firms
  • As Good as It Gets: Iron Ore Risks a Reversal as China Cools
  • China Honqqiao Seals Citic Stake and Confirms Capacity Cuts
  • Institutional Investors Oppose Hong Kong’s Dual-Class Share Plan
  • Vietnam Rubber Group Expects to Hold IPO in Dec.

European equities have traded higher across the board (Eurostoxx 50 +0.8%) since the get-go despite a quiet start to the session with sentiment later bolstered by the latest ECB source reports. Gains on a sector specific stand-point have been relatively broad-based with materials recovering from recent losses. The most notable individual mover has been AP Moller Maersk (+2%) who initially opened lower amid disappointing earnings before reversing course after the CEO managed to provide an upbeat commentary on the Co. Source reports indicate that ECB Draghi will not deliver fresh policy message at Jackson Hole and wants to hold off on debate until Autumn. Paper was initially hampered by the modest upside in European equities before European bonds were supported by the aforementioned ECB source reports. Peripheral bonds used the source reports as an opportunity to tighten to their core counterparts given the potential for more accommodative monetary policy. However, prices overall then began to reverse once again as UK Gilts dragged paper lower in the wake of the promising UK jobs report.

Top European News

  • Euro Whipsaws on Report Draghi May Hold Off at Jackson Hole
  • Aviva, China Resources Are Said to Mull U.K. Wind Farm Bids
  • Derivatives Group Looks at Industrywide Cure for Libor’s Demise
  • U.K. Wage Growth Beats Forecasts But Still Lags Inflation
  • Zinc Smashes Through $3,000 Barrier as Metals Rally Gathers Pace
  • Danone ‘Extreme’ Cost Actions May Hamper Volume Recovery: Citi

In overnight currency markets, the GBP has once again been a key source of focus for markets amid the latest UK jobs report. GBP was bolstered and approached 1.2900 to the upside amid the firmer than expected earnings numbers, unexpected fall in unemployment rate and fall in the claimant count rates; albeit wages still lag inflation by quite a distance. Elsewhere, EUR has faced some selling-pressure (EUR/USD back below 1.1750) in the wake of the latest ECB source comments with sources suggesting that Draghi will not use next week’s Jackson Hole Symposium to communicate a change in stance with markets and will instead hold-off until the Autumn. Elsewhere, the USD remains relatively steady with markets awaiting the latest FOMC minutes release. Yesterday saw the greenback outperform after strong retail sales data, which took the spot rate above 94.00 briefly. This morning, the USD-index is relatively flat, which may well be the case for much of the day ahead of the FOMC minutes later this evening. AUD firmer amid cross related buying AUD/NZD which broke back above 1.08, subsequently taking the spot above 0.7850. Wage price index remaining firm, which also comes ahead of tonight’s employment figures, of note, large options are keeping AUD anchored with 1.86b1n at 0.7830 and 910mln at 0.7875. Attention will be placed on both CAD and MXN as NAFTA renegotiations get underway, as it stands the Trump administration aim to shrink the rising trade deficit with Mexico and tighten the rules of origin for cars and parts. Elsewhere, CAD is slightly firmer as oil prices stabilise following last night’s sizeable drawdown in the API report.

Commodity markets have seen WTI and Brent crude futures hold onto gains seen in the wake of last night’s API report which revealed a notable 9.155m1n draw (and came in the context of last week’s 7.839m1n draw). Elsewhere, Gold has been modestly hampered by the broad risk-sentiment with markets also keeping half an eye out for tonight’s FOMC minutes release. Overnight, mild short-covering helped copper pare some of yesterday’s losses.

Looking at the day ahead, preliminary 2Q GDP stats for the Eurozone (0.6% qoq, 2.1% yoy expected) and Italy (0.4% qoq and 1.5% yoy expected) are due this morning. Then for UK, we have the July jobless claims and claimant count rate and the June ILO unemployment data (4.5% expected). Across the pond, we get the FOMC meeting minutes along with the July housing starts (1,225k expected) and MBA mortgage applications stats. Onto other events, the NAFTA talks between US, Canada and Mexico kicks off in Washington today. Furthermore, Target and Cisco will report their results today.

Looking at the day ahead, we get the FOMC meeting minutes along with the July housing starts (1,225k expected) and MBA mortgage applications stats. Onto other events, the NAFTA talks between US, Canada and Mexico kicks off in Washington today. Furthermore, Target and Cisco will report their results today.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 3.0%
  • 8:30am: Housing Starts, est. 1.22m, prior 1.22m; Housing Starts MoM, est. 0.41%, prior 8.3%
  • 8:30am: Building Permits, est. 1.25m, prior 1.25m; Building Permits MoM, est. -1.96%, prior 7.4%
  • 2pm: FOMC Meeting Minutes

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Although I’m generally a bit more relaxed about the UK’s future post Brexit than most of my colleagues in research, I was amused at a comment on twitter yesterday in light of the UK’s decision to silence London’s iconic Big Ben for 4 years as of next Monday as repairs are made. The comment suggested that how could the UK Parliament expect repairs of a clock to take 4 years while expecting whole Brexit negotiations to be done in 18 months? A fair point. So if you’re a regular visitor to London don’t expect to hear any bongs for the next few years. Apparently it’s all about health and safety for the ears of the repairers.

Thankfully after last night, hopefully Liverpool will still be in Europe for a few more weeks and months whatever happens with our negotiations. Talking of Brexit and DB research, yesterday Oliver Harvey updated his thoughts after the UK government released a position paper on customs arrangements after Brexit. The paper clarifies that UK intends to remain part of the EU customs union in all but name after March 2019 for a time-limited transitional period. Further, it sets out two potential options for the UK’s future customs relationship with the EU27, one involving a hard border and the other proposing a new and untested  customs partnership arrangement. Harvey notes the paper fails to address future trade in services, or the apparent contradiction between desire for unchanged customs arrangements during a transitional deal and PM May’s stated red line on ECJ jurisdiction after March 2019. Moreover, he argues that the absence of any mention of legal enforceability and product standards is particularly puzzling as non-tariff barriers are typically a larger obstacle to trade than tariffs and the need to ensure harmonized regulatory standards during a transitional deal and afterwards will be one of the key challenges for policymaking. More details here The fact that we haven’t yet mentioned North Korea suggests that it was another day of no news which is obviously good for markets. The unpredictability of the main players in this stand-off mean that markets will likely want a fair few days of more calm before they return markets back to their pre “fire and fury” tweet levels.

Having said that we saw equities generally edge higher yesterday with larger increases in bond yields. The UST 10y was up 5bps overnight, following the higher than expected retail sales data (discussed later). Core European government bond yields also increased c3bps at the longer end of the curve, with Bunds (2Y: +1bp; 10Y: +3bps) and OATs (2Y: +2bps; 10Y: +3bps) reversing some of the recent safe haven move. Gilts outperformed a little (2Y: +1bp; 10Y: +1bps), following the lower than expected July inflation data (discussed later). Elsewhere, peripheral bond yields also increased with Italian BTPs (2Y: +2bps; 10Y: +4bps) and Portugal (2Y: +1bps; 10Y: +4bps) slightly under performing.

This morning in Asia, markets are generally slightly higher with China underperforming. The Nikkei (+0.02%), Kospi (+0.5%), Hang Seng (+0.4%) are higher with Chinese bourses ranging from -0.3% to +0.2% as we type.

Back to the markets yesterday, US equities were broadly unchanged, with the S&P (-0.1%), the Dow (+0.02%) and the Nasdaq (-0.1%) taking a breather after yesterday’s rally. Within the S&P, modest gains in the utilities and consumer staples sector were broadly offset by losses in Telco (-1%) and consumer discretionary (-0.9%) names. European markets were slightly higher, with the Stoxx 600 up 0.1%, the DAX (+0.1%) and both the FTSE and CAC up 0.4%. Within the Stoxx, modest gains in utilities (+0.5%) and health care were largely offset by losses in energy and materials.

Turning to currency, the USD dollar index gained 0.5%, following the stronger than expected retail sales data. Conversely, the Euro/USD fell 0.4%, but Sterling/ USD fell a bit more (-0.7%), impacted by the UK’s inflation data. Elsewhere, Euro/Sterling continues to gain (+0.4%), up for the fourth consecutive day and edging higher again this morning, effectively marking the highest point since November 09. In commodities, WTI oil was broadly flat yesterday but is up 0.4% this morning following API reporting lower US crude inventories. Elsewhere, gold fell 0.8% and silver was down 2.6%, while the industrial metals were little changed (Copper -0.1%; Aluminium -1.3%). Agricultural commodities were broadly softer this morning, with corn (-0.1%), wheat and soybeans (-0.2%), cotton (-0.9%), sugar (-2.7%) and coffee (-3.5%).

Away from markets, the IMF has revised up China’s growth outlook compared to last year’s report, now expecting the growth between 2017 and 2021 to average 6.4% (vs. 6% previous), partly given that China continues to transition to a more sustainable growth path and reforms have advanced across a wide domain. The paper also noted that given the solid growth momentum, now is the time to intensify deleveraging efforts and boost domestic consumption. The report expects non-financial sector debt (includes household, corporate and government) to continue to rise strongly, up from 242% of GDP in 2016 to ~300% by 2022, which raises concerns for a possible sharp decline in growth in the medium term.

The minutes for the July FOMC meeting will be out later today, our US economists expect the Committee to remain on course to announce the commencement of its balance sheet unwind at the September 20 meeting. However, there is likely to be a healthy debate regarding the inflation outlook as several policymakers have indicated that improvement in near-term inflation trends will be crucial to the prospects of another interest rate hike by year end. Elsewhere, the Trump administration has made no decision yet to stop or continue making payments to insurers (cost sharing reduction) to help lowincome people to afford their Obamacare plans. That said, the Congressional budget office did indicate that ending such payments could raise billions of dollars over the next decade for the government.

Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, macro data were broadly stronger than expected. The July retail sales were materially higher than expected, both at the headline and core level. Headline was 0.6% mom (vs. 0.3% consensus, but in line with DB’s forecast) and ex-auto was 0.5% mom (vs. 0.3% expected). Notably, these readings also follow positive revisions to the prior month. The July result together with revisions means that through-year growth improved across all aggregates, with ex-auto spending up 3.8% yoy. Elsewhere, the empire manufacturing survey came in at 25.2 (vs. 10.0 expected), the best reading since September 2014, the NAHB housing market index was 68 (vs. 64 expected). The June business inventories was slightly higher than expected at 0.5% mom (vs. 0.4%) and July import price index was in line at 0.1% mom.

Over in Germany, the preliminary 2Q GDP was lower than expected at 0.6% qoq (vs. 0.7% expected). However, this follows a positive +0.1% revision to the 1Q reading, leaving a solid annual growth reading of 2.1% yoy (vs. 1.9% expected). According to DB’s Schneider, both the 1Q and 2Q 2017 readings and the data revisions confirm our story that overheating risks in Germany are on the rise in 2018 and that recent confidence data does not suggest that the German economy will decelerate much in 3Q.

In the UK, July inflation data was slightly lower than expected, dampening concerns that high inflation readings might cause the BoE to soon tighten monetary policy settings. CPI was -0.1% mom (vs. 0% expected) and 2.4% yoy for core inflation (vs. 2.5%). However, the July retail price index was slightly ahead at 0.2% mom (vs. 0.1% expected) and 3.6% yoy (vs. 3.5%). Meanwhile pipeline inflation appears to have peaked, with the core PPI outputs index rising 2.4% yoy in July (vs. 2.5% expected), the least since February.

Looking at the day ahead, preliminary 2Q GDP stats for the Eurozone (0.6% qoq, 2.1% yoy expected) and Italy (0.4% qoq and 1.5% yoy expected) are due this morning. Then for UK, we have the July jobless claims and claimant count rate and the June ILO unemployment data (4.5% expected). Across the pond, we get the FOMC meeting minutes along with the July housing starts (1,225k expected) and MBA mortgage applications stats. Onto other events, the NAFTA talks between US, Canada and Mexico kicks off in Washington today. Furthermore, Target and Cisco will report their results today.

 END

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late TUESDAY night/WEDNESDAY morning: Shanghai closed DOWN 4.81 POINTS OR 0.15%   / /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 234.11 POINTS OR 0.86% The Nikkei closed DOWN 24.03 POINTS OR 0.12%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.46%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.6950/Oil UP to 47.68 dollars per barrel for WTI and 51.03 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED DEEPLY IN THE GREEN , Offshore yuan trades  6.7020 yuan to the dollar vs 6.6950 for onshore yuan. NOW THE OFFSHORE IS WEAKER  TO THE ONSHORE YUAN/ ONSHORE YUAN WEAKER (TO THE DOLLAR)  AND THE OFFSHORE YUAN IS MUCH WEAKER TO THE DOLLAR AND THIS IS COUPLED WITH THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER DOLLAR. CHINA IS NOT HAPPY TODAY 

3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA/USA

Trump praises Kim for a “wise decision” to not threaten the uSA.. (so far)

(courtesy zero hedge)

Embattled Trump Praises Kim Jong Un For “Very Wise Decision”

After a fiery press conference yesterday that seemingly did more damage than good, President Trump seems desperate to change the topic this morning.  Having attacked Amazon earlier over Twitter, the President just tweeted the following message thanking Kim Jong Un for a “very wise and well reasoned decision” saying the “alternative would have been catastrophic.”

“Kim Jong Un of North Korea made a very wise and well reasoned decision. The alternative would have been both catastrophic and unacceptable!”

Kim Jong Un of North Korea made a very wise and well reasoned decision. The alternative would have been both catastrophic and unacceptable!

 

Seems we’ve come a long way since the “fire and fury” promised last week.

.@POTUS: “North Korea best not make any more threats to the U.S. They will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen.”

 

So, with a nuclear showdown with North Korea moved to the back burner for now, what other fireworks will we get from Trump Tower today?  More advisory council resignations perhaps?

end

 

Then just to antagonize Kim Jong Un some more, the USA and Japan hold joint drills over the Korean Peninsula. Both China and North Korea are fuming this morning

 

(courtesy zero hedge)

US, Japan Hold Joint Air Drills Over Korean Peninsula As China, North Korea Fume

Since unlike Donald Trump he does not have access to twitter, we can only assume that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is probably fuming this morning after US and Japanese fighter jets conducted joint “air maneuvers” southwest of the Korean peninsula, according to Reuters. The exercises threaten to reignite tensions between the US and the North after Kim Jong Un reportedly told his generals on Tuesday to shelve a plan to strike Guam with an ICBM.

The exercises were held a day after Kim said that he would put plans to attack the US island territory on hold, but that his generals would closely monitor the “Yankees” for any signs of hostility. The exercises involved two US Airforce B-1B Lancers, and two Japanese F-15 jet fighters, according to Reuters. The North, as its state-run news agency has stated repeatedly in the past, typically interprets military exercises as tantamount to an act of war.

“The exercise in the East China Sea involved two U.S. Air Force B-1B Lancer bombers flying from Andersen Air Force Base on the Pacific island of Guam and two Japanese F-15 jet fighters, Japan’s Air Self Defense Force said in a news release. ‘The exercise is meant to improve interoperability and bolster combat skills,’ it said. The U.S. planes, which were designed to carry nuclear bombs but were later upgraded to carry conventional weapons, have flown several sorties in East Asia over the past several weeks. In addition to air drills with Japanese fighters, the bombers have also exercised with South Korean aircraft.

“Reclusive North Korea has made no secret of its plans to develop a missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead and of reaching the United States to counter what it perceives as constant U.S. threats of invasion – such as U.S. war drills with neighboring South Korea and Japan.”

Wednesday’s test runs were part of a 19-day long period of joint exercises between the US and Japan that began on Aug. 10, according to AFP. On a military installation in Northern Japan, some 300 Japanese and US military personnel carried out live-fire artillery training, according to Agence France-Presse. Japan also tested its Patriot Advanced Capability-3 missile defense system. The system was tested in Shimane, Hiroshima and Kochi prefectures, which North Korea had warned could be along its missiles’ flight path.

The air drill also upset China, which said “they do nothing to ease tension.”

On Wednesday, a senior Chinese military officer reiterated China’s position on the need to maintain peace and stability to the United States’ top general, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Joseph Dunford, China’s Defence Ministry said.

 

Song Puxuan, commander of China’s Northern Theatre Command, stressed to Dunford that the North Korean nuclear issue must be resolved politically through talks, the ministry added, without saying where the two met.

More importantly, the overnight drill is a preview of what is coming: US and South Korean militaries will proceed with massive sea, land and air exercises next week despite a tenuous stalemate between the US and North Korea.

The annual joint exercises, named Ulchi-Freedom Guardian, have long been planned for 21-31 August, but now come at a time when both Washington and Pyongyang are on heightened alert, raising the spectre of a mishap or overreaction, according to the Guardian.  Washington and Seoul say the exercises, involving tens of thousands of American and South Korean troops, are a deterrent against North Korean aggression.

In the past, the practices are believed to have included “decapitation strikes” – trial operations for an attempt to kill Kim Jong-un and his top generals, further antagonising a paranoid leadership.

Next week’s massive joint drill is widely seen among Wall Street commentators as a potential catalyst for the next flare up in tensions and/or hostilities involving Kim’s regime.

 

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

end

c) REPORT ON CHINA

We knew that this was going to happen:  Indian and Chinese soldiers clash following Chinese incursion on Indian soil.  China claims that it is their territory:

(courtesy zero hedge)

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Turmoil in the Euro has Draghi sends a message that he will not announce tapering at his Jackson Hole meeting but he may make his announcement in October.  The Euro tumbles.

(courtesy zero hedge)

 

Euro Turmoils After ECB Walks Back Draghi Jackson Hole Appearance

Just yesterday morning, we said that with the Euro rising as much as it has in recent months (or is that the dollar tumbling), the ECB’s next move could – or should – be to talk down the common currency, instead of carrying the hawkish “bias” Draghi has pushed for the past half year, culminating with the Sintra mini tantrum in which the poor central banker was “misunderstood” by markets. Well, just 24 hours later that’s precisely what happened when this morning the EUR turmoiled, first tumbling then regaining all losses after Reuters “trial ballooned” that the much anticipated Draghi presentation at the Fed’s Jackson Hole conference in just over a week, where he was widely expected to unveil the ECB’s taper, would be a “nothingburger” to use the parlance of our times, and “will not deliver a new policy message” according to two Reuters sources familiar with the situation said, tempering expectations for the bank to start charting the course out of stimulus.

Perhaps having finally seen how high the EURUSD has risen, an ECB spokesman told Reuters that Draghi “will focus on the theme of the symposium, fostering a dynamic global economy, in his Aug. 25 remarks, while the sources added that he was keen to hold off on the policy discussion until the autumn, as agreed at the last rate-setting meeting in July. 

Well, so much for the narrative set by the WSJ one month ago, which set expectations that Draghi’s Jackson Hole address would frontrun the central bank’s tapering blueprint.

Expectations for the speech had been building in recent weeks with investors pointing to next Friday’s event as the likely kick off in the ECB’s debate how to recalibrate monetary policy given solid growth, rapidly falling unemployment but persistently weak underlying inflation.

 

In 2014, the last time Draghi spoke at Jackson Hole, considered the world’s top central banking get-together, he laid the foundations for the ECB’s quantitative easing scheme, also fuelling expectations for a major speech this year.

 

“Expectations that this will be a big monetary policy speech are wrong,” one of the sources said.

As Reuters further adds, another source said while the speech was initially seen as an ideal slot for a major address, “Draghi told rate setters at the last policy meeting that he would honour the Governing Council’s decision to hold off on the discussion until the autumn.”

And in the most amusing twist, Reuters “reports” that Draghi “may have decided to skip the Jackson Hole opportunity as markets interpreted his speech at a similar conference in Sintra, Portugal very differently than the ECB hoped, sending markets on a rollercoaster and instilling an added sense of caution at the bank.

Draghi then hoped to strike a balanced tone but noted that better growth would provide increased support to the economy, letting the ECB claw back its own stimulus to keep the overall level of accommodation broadly unchanged.  That was seen as a hawkish message, paving the way to reducing and then ending asset purchases.

Uhm, what markets? The one where the ECB now owns 14% of Europe’s corporate bond market and 40% of Eurozone GDP in the form of public debt? That’s the market that Draghi is complaining about? Or is that the market where the ECB buy billions in Apple stock every quarter.

So if not Jackson Hole then when?

Policymakers speaking to Reuters on condition of anonymity earlier said that October is the likely date for the most substantial decision given the incoming data schedule, particularly on wages.

The ECB’s big dilemma is that while the euro zone economy has grown for 17th straight quarters and employment is rising faster than expected, wage growth remains anemic, keeping a lid on consumer prices.

 

Economists are now trying to figure out whether wages are showing an unexpectedly delayed response or whether wage setting dynamics may have fundamentally changed in the post-crisis, globalised economy.

Following the report, the Euro whipsawed with the EUR/USD rising as much as 0.2% to 1.1758 as BBDXY erased its gains, only to reverse course and slide as low as 1.1692 as cable also dropped, although as Bloomberg then adds, a mix of leveraged and interbank names were seen on the bid in EUR/USD, most likely the ECB once again intervening indirectly in the market it so loudly complains about.

5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

IRAN

A very important commentary:  Iran states that it will restart its nuclear program within hours of new sanctions.  The problem for Iran is basically sanctions which stop the selling of Iranian oil in markets will cripple that country.  It can ill afford new sanctions.  The uSA knows this and wants Iran to stop helping terrorism and their support of terrorist groups like Hezbollah.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Iran Threatens Trump With Restart Of Nuclear Program “Within Hours”

One day after Iran announced it was preparing to send a flotilla of warships to the western Atlantic Ocean following the announcement of a massive $500 million investment in war spending, the Iranian regime is fast emerging as the latest potential geopolitical headache for the Trump administration, after it warned on Tuesday that Iran could abandon its 2015 nuclear deal signed with Obama with world powers “within hours” if the United States imposes further sanctions on Tehran, president Hassan Rouhani said in his first address to Iran’s parliament since being sworn in to a second term, and hinted that Iran could quickly boost enrichment up to levels even higher than before it signed the nuclear accord.

“Those who try to return to the language of threats and sanctions are prisoners of their past delusions,” Rouhani said in the address. “If they want to go back to that experience, definitely in a short time — not in weeks or months, but within hours or days — we will return to our previous [nuclear] situation very much stronger.”

He also said Iran prefered to stick with the nuclear deal, which he called “a model of victory for peace and diplomacy over war and unilateralism” but that this was not the “only option“. In response, the US warned it would continue to punish Iran’s “non-nuclear destabilising activities.”

Rouhani’s statement comes as Obama’s sole diplomatic achievement, the Iran Nuclear deal, finds itself under mounting pressure after Tehran carried out missile tests and strikes, and Washington imposed new sanctions, with each accusing the other of violating the spirit of the agreement. Rouhani has warned that Iran was ready to walk out of the deal, which saw the lifting of most international sanctions in return for curbs on its nuclear programme, if Washington persisted.

As a reminder, last month Iran tested a powerful new ballistic missile that resulted in new US sanctions, and as reported last night, Iran’s parliament voted overwhelmingly to increase budget spending to $260 million for the ballistic missile programme, which is not limited by the nuclear deal. The vote also covered  a further US$260 million spending on regional operations of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ foreign wing, the Quds Force, which is leading a range of militias in Syria and Iraq.

Rouhani warned that a reconstituted nuclear program would be “far more advanced” the NYT reports, a veiled threat that the country could start enriching uranium up to the level of 20%, a step toward building a nuclear weapon. Such enrichment activities were a major concern before 2015, when Tehran signed a landmark agreement with the United States and other world powers that lifted crippling economic sanctions in return for severe limits on Iran’s nuclear activities

Separately, Rouhani said Trump had shown he was an unreliable partner not just for Iran but for US allies.

Joining pretty much every other world leader in mocking the US president, Rouhani said that “in recent months, the world has witnessed that the US, in addition to its constant and repetitive breaking of its promises in the [nuclear deal], has ignored several other global agreements and shown its allies that the US is neither a good partner nor a reliable negotiating party,” he said, highlighting Trump’s decisions to withdraw from the Paris climate agreement and international trade deals.

State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert refused to address Rouhani’s comments directly, insisted Washington was in full compliance with its side of the nuclear deal, however she did confirm the US administration was reviewing its policy towards Iran and that it believes the nuclear deal did not put an end to Tehran’s other “destabilising activities” in its region. Rouhani’s warning was also sharply criticized by Nikki Haley, the US ambassador to the United Nations, who said in a statement that the warning amounted to an Iranian attempt at blackmail.

“Iran cannot be allowed to use the nuclear deal to hold the world hostage,” Ms. Haley said in the statement, titled “Ambassador Haley on Iran’s Threats to Quit the JCPOA.”

 

The new United States sanctions on Iran, she said, were not a violation of the nuclear deal but part of an effort to “hold Iran responsible for its missile launches, support for terrorism, disregard for human rights, and violations of U.N. Security Council resolutions.”

Which begs the questions: what’s the point of the deal, how much longer will it remain in place, and what happens to the price of oil if and when some 2-3 million barrels per day of Iranian oil exports are again taken out of the global market, crippling Iran’s economy.

Of course, Iran is aware what the devastating consequences of such an escalation – the bottom line is tens of billions in lost oil revenue – could do to its economy, which is why some analysts cited by The National, cautioned that Rouhani’s remarks on the nuclear deal do not indicate that Iran is close to, or even considering, pulling out of the deal. It is much more likely a tactical move to protect the moderate president’s political flank on the right from the IRGC and other hardliners who oppose the cultural and economic opening that the deal is intended to facilitate, but which could weaken their grip on society and on the economy.

“I clearly do not think it is alarming,” said Marc Martinez, Iran analyst at the Delma Institute in Abu Dhabi. “It is a political speech for a domestic audience and a display of unity” as Washington steps up pressure.

 

“Rouhani’s remarks are a classic act of political bravado, but the president’s intentions [and] Iran’s intentions are quite evident when we consider that Javad Zarif was reappointed minister of foreign affairs,” Mr Martinez said. “Iran is highly benefiting from the JCPOA, and it makes the calculus that the international community will not support Trump’s adventurism.”

Which is spot on, and yet one can’t help but think that Iran is, perhaps worried about Trump’s unpredictable decision-making nature, hedging its bets. It would expain why on Monday night Rouhani spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin, vowing to build on their joint military efforts across the region.

Tehran welcomes the active presence of Russia’s investors… in major infrastructure projects including in the fields of industry and energy,” his office said as Putin, no longer busy manipulating several tens of millions of middle class Americans to vote against Hillary Clinton, smiled in the background.

It’s not just the Kremlin that Tehran is building up close ties: the European Union, which initially supported global sanctions against Iran under President Barack Obama, has started to invest heavily in the country since the nuclear deal was signed, and it is not likely to support new penalties. China has also been a partner to the Iranians for many years.

end

 

Cash strapped Qatar cuts its holdings in Credit Suisse as the embargo is hurting them considerably
(courtesy zero hedge)

Cash-Strapped Qatar Unexpectedly Cuts Credit Suisse Stake

Is the ongoing Qatar blockade starting to seriously squeeze the finances of the tiny, but rich (or maybe not so rich any more) Gulf nation?

Overnight, Credit Suisse’s largest shareholder, Qatar, announced it has lowered its direct shareholding in the largest Swiss bank to 4.94% through the nation’s sovereign wealth fund – the Qatar Investment Authority – marking a rare sale of the Swiss bank’s stock. The QIA previously owned 5.01% in voting rights and is reporting a sale of shares for the first time since 2008. Qatar’s overall holding – including convertible bonds – declined to 15.91% from 17.98% after a rise in the number of outstanding Credit Suisse shares because of its capital increase.

In June, Credit Suisse, which is halfway through a three-year strategy revamp, raised about CHF4.1 billion after tapping shareholders for a second time since CEI Tidjane Thiam took over in mid-2015, Bloomberg reported. The fresh funding would boost its common equity Tier 1 capital to 13.4% of risk-weighted assets, up from 11.7% in the first quarter.

Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund has been the Zurich-based bank’s biggest shareholder since the financial crisis of 2008-09. Then, the cash-rich emirate helped Credit Suisse avert a state bailout by injecting billions in capital into the bank; now Qatar itself may be on the verge of needing a bailout.  The sale has come at a price: the infusion was designed as convertible bonds in Credit Suisse, for which the bank has paid a coupon of between 9 and 9.5%. However, in a harbinger of what’s to come, in February Credit Suisse said that Bin Hamad J.J. Al Thani, who represented the Qataris on Credit Suisse’s board of directors, won’t stand for re-election. Saudi Arabian group Olayan is also a major shareholder in Credit Suisse.

As shown below, Qatar boasts one of the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds, with stakes in companies from Glencore to Barclays to Volkswagen (come to think of it, all companies that have one or major major “structural” issues). The small peninsular nation also hosts the regional headquarters for U.S. Central Command, making it a critical outpost for the US military’s ongoing involvement in the middle east.

In the nearly ten years since the capital investment, Credit Suisse has made hundreds of millions in annual payments to Qatar. That changed in February of this year when as noted above, Qatar’s board representative, Jassim Bin Hamad J.J. Al Thani, left the bank with little explanation and no replacement. However, Qatar did participate in Credit Suisse’s CHF4.1 billion capital-raising to full up its depleted cushion of capital.

Now, Qatar has sharply lowered its overall stake in Credit Suisse. The emirate now holds 4.94% of shares and 10.97% in converts, down from 5.0%1 in shares and 12.96% in the securities, or from 17.98% to 15.91% in total.

The sale comes against the backdrop of tensions between the emirate and Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates, which according to some have led to a sharp deterioration in the country’s finances.  The move has unpleasant consequences for Credit Suisse as well: Abu Dhabi has reportedly boycotted banks in which Qatar is invested. Besides Credit Suisse, those include Germany’s Deutsche Bank and London’s Barclays Bank, also a crisis beneficiary of Qatar’s generosity.

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

7. OIL ISSUES

Well that did not take long:  WTI and gasoline both fall as oil production continues to surge

(courtesy zero hedge)

WTI/RBOB Slide After Oil Production Surge Offsets Biggest Crude Draw Since Sept

Following last night’s mixed mesage from API (crude draw, gasoline build), WTI prices have gone nowhere as all eyes focus on DOE data this morning. Confirming API’s trend, crude saw its biggest draw since Sept 2016 but Gasoline, Distillates, and Cushing (most since March) saw builds which upset the machines and sent prices lower. Crude production rose once again to its highest since July 2015.

 

API

  • Crude -9.2mm (-3.38mm exp) – biggest draw since Sept 2016
  • Cushing +1.7mm (+700k exp) – biggest build since March
  • Gasoline +301k (-450k exp) – second weekly build in a row
  • Distillates -2.1mm (-250k exp)

DOE

  • Crude -8.945mm (-3.38mm exp) – biggest draw since Sept 2016
  • Cushing +678k (+700k exp) – biggest build since March
  • Gasoline +22k (-450k exp)
  • Distillates +702k (-250k exp)

Last week’s surprise build in gasoline (confirmed by API) and big draw in crude (also confirmed by API overnight) remains the big focus and DOE data confirmed it with the biggest crude draw since Sept 2016 but builds in products and at Cushing…

While the builds in produst were modest, they were nevertheless a surprise shift in trend from draws to builds…

Imports from Saudi Arabia jumped 47 percent to 813,000 barrels a day, but remain well under the 1-million barrel figure exceeded through much of the first two quarters of this year.

As Bloomberg’s David Marino notes, the total stockpile draw of 7.32 million barrels brings inventories to the lowest since January 2016, but still more than 200 million barrels above November 2014, when the glut really started building up. A lot of work still to do, as OPEC well knows.

While rig count growth has stabilized, crude production continues to rise in the Lower 48 (though had dropped in Alaska for 3 straight weeks) but both saw a rise this week (total production up 79k) as Lower 48 production hit its highest since July 2015…

Bloomberg notes that U.S. oil production from major shale plays is set to hit another record at 6.15 million barrels a day next month, according to the EIA. It’s not just the Permian that’s growing, as the agency sees higher output across the board.

 

WTI Crude prices barely budged from last night’s API print heading into the DOE data, spiked higher on the crude draw but slipped back lower on product builds and production surge…

Heading into the print, “the size of a potential draw in crude inventories is “going to be the most material” aspect of the report, Brad Hunnewell, senior equity analyst at Rockefeller & Co., says, adding that “investors also expect to see a rise in gasoline demand.”

However, as Bloomberg Intelligence energy analyst Vince Piazza notes:

No change to our bearish view: long road to recovery still ahead. We still see mid $50-$60s as the threshold for acceleration of U.S output. Commentary from exploration and production company conference calls implies drilling efficiencies are aiding productivity.

 

Elevated refining utilization has helped deplete bloated inventories across the petroleum value chain during the key seasonal driving period, and exports have helped as well. However, the market is seeing the end to summer, with runs traditionally declining in early fall.

8. EMERGING MARKET

VENEZUELA

With his new powers, Maduro can imprison anybody who is a dissident

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

Venezuelans Face 25 Years In Prison For “Hate Or Intolerance”

In a harbinger of what – for various reasons – may be coming to the US, Venezuela’s brand new “all-powerful” constituent assembly is set to pass a bill that will jail anyone who expresses “hate or intolerance” for up to 25 years, a measure which the local opposition – and everyone else – is certain will be used by Maduro’s regime to silence and punish all dissent.

“The question is whether this is the peace he’s looking for: creating a law that gives him and his obedient supreme court judiciary powers to lock up dissidents for 25 years,” Tamara Taraciuk, head Venezuela researcher for Human Rights Watch, told Reuters in a Wednesday telephone interview. To be sure, less extreme versions of this proposal have cropped up across the developed world, where while “hate or intolerance” – as defined by some arbitrary but very powerful authority – will result if not in jail time, then certainly in loss of freedom of speech or worse.

As for Venezuela, the “the proposal includes incredibly vague language that would allow them to jail anyone for almost anything,” she added, a blueprint for how crackdown against dissent in “developed” countries may materialize.  It gets worse: straight out of “1984”, Venezuela’s assembly is scheduled later on Wednesday to empanel a “Truth Commission” headed by Maduro loyalist and former Foreign Minister Delcy Rodriguez, to prosecute those responsible for violent anti-government protests.

Over the past month, in his attempt to copycat Turkey’s president Erdogan and seize supreme power, President Nicolas Maduro installed a 545-member assembly stacked with Socialist Party allies earlier this month, who provide him with a greenlight to do virtually anything. The president defends the new legislative superbody as Venezuela’s only hope for peace and prosperity.

Separately, local rights group Penal Forum estimated that Maduro’s government was holding 676 political prisoners as of Wednesday, a number that could rise once a crackdown against hate crimes – however the ruling regime defines these – becomes law. For now the definition is simple: no disagreement with Maduro:

“Anyone who goes out into the streets to express intolerance and hatred will be captured and will be tried and punished with sentences of 15, 20, 25 years of jail,” Maduro recently told the assembly, drawing a standing ovation.

Meanwhile the assembly has wasted no time in usurping power. Just days after firing Venezuela’s top prosecutor Luisa Ortega, the assembly on Tuesday ordered that cases of protesters detained this year be held in civilian rather than military courts. The Geneva-based International Commission of Jurists said in a report on Wednesday that Ortega’s dismissal “removes one of the last remaining institutional checks on executive authority.”

As for Ortega, she is likely going to prison too: the country’s new chief prosecutor, Maduro’s former “human rights ombudsman” Tarek Saab, on Wednesday outlined corruption accusations against his predecessor Ortega, her husband and members of her team of prosecutors. She is unlikely to find any support in the current regime: the opposition, in control of the traditional congress, boycotted the election of the assembly, meaning that all candidates for the new body were Maduro allies.

 

end

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 am

Euro/USA   1.1707 DOWN .0032/REACTING TO  + huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:/TRUMP HEALTH CARE DEFEAT//ITALIAN REFERENDUM DEFEAT/AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/ /USA RISING INTEREST RATES AGAIN/EUROPE BOURSES ALL IN THE GREEN 

USA/JAPAN YEN 110.77 UP 0.182(Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/SIGNALS U TURN WITH INCREASED NEGATIVITY IN NIRP/JAPAN OUT OF WEAPONS TO FIGHT ECONOMIC DISASTER/   HELICOPTER MONEY  ON THE TABLE AND DECISION ON SEPT 21 DISAPPOINTS WITH STIMULUS/OPERATION REVERSE TWIST/LABOUR PARTY LOSES IN LOCAL ELECTIONS

GBP/USA 1.2873 UP .0007 (Brexit  March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED

THERESA MAY FORMS A NEW GOVERNMENT/STARTS BREXIT TALKS

USA/CAN 1.2732 DOWN .0021 (CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA)

Early THIS WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 32 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level  FALLING to 1.1707; Europe is still reacting to Gr Britain HARD BREXIT,deflation, announcements of massive stimulation (QE), a proxy middle east war, and the ramifications of a default at the Austrian Hypo bank, an imminent default of Greece, Glencore, Nysmark and the Ukraine, along with rising peripheral bond yield further stimulation as the EU is moving more into NIRP, and now the Italian referendum defeat AND NOW THE ECB TAPERING OF ITS PURCHASES/ THE USA’S NON tightening by FAILING TO RAISE THEIR INTEREST RATE AND NOW THE HUGE PROBLEMS FACING TOO BIG TO FAIL DEUTSCHE BANK + THE ELECTION OF TRUMP IN THE USA+ TRUMP HEALTH CARE BILL DEFEAT AND MONTE DEI PASCHI NATIONALIZATION / Last night the Shanghai composite CLOSED  DOWN 4.81 POINTS OR 0.15%     / Hang Sang  CLOSED UP 234.11 POINTS OR 0.86% /AUSTRALIA  CLOSED UP 0.46% / EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED  DEEPLY IN THE GREEN 

We are seeing that the 3 major global carry trades are being unwound. The BIGGY is the first one;

1. the total dollar global short is 9 trillion USA and as such we are now witnessing a sea of red blood on the streets as derivatives blow up with the massive rise in the rise in the dollar against all paper currencies and especially with the fall of the yuan carry trade. The emerging market which house close to 50% of the 9 trillion dollar short is feeling the massive pain as their debt is quite unmanageable.

2, the Nikkei average vs gold carry trade ( NIKKEI blowing up and the yen carry trade HAS BLOWN up/and now NIRP)

3. Short Swiss franc/long assets blew up ( Eastern European housing/Nikkei etc.

These massive carry trades are terribly offside as they are being unwound. It is causing global deflation ( we are at debt saturation already) as the world reacts to lack of demand and a scarcity of debt collateral. Bourses around the globe are reacting in kind to these events as well as the potential for a GREXIT>

The NIKKEI: this WEDNESDAY morning CLOSED DOWN 24.03 POINTS OR 0.12%

Trading from Europe and Asia:
1. Europe stocks  OPENED DEEPLY IN THE GREEN 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / : Hang Sang CLOSED UP 234.11 POINTS OR 0.86%  / SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 4.81 POINTS OR 0.15%   /Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.46% /Nikkei (Japan)CLOSED DOWN 24,03  POINTS OR 0.12%   / INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1270.70

silver:$16.68

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.2728% !!!  UP 0   IN POINTS from TUESDAY night in basis points and it is trading JUST BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

 The 30 yr bond yield  2.8520, UP 1  IN BASIS POINTS  from TUESDAY night.

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 94.03 UP 18  CENT(S) from TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers  WEDNESDAY MORNING

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And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.828% DOWN 1 in basis point(s) yield from TUESDAY 

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.042%  DOWN 4/5   in   basis point yield from TUESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.463% DOWN 1   IN basis point yield from TUESDAY 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.036 DOWN 1 POINTS  in basis point yield from TUESDAY 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 58 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: +.443% UP 1  IN  BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY

END

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IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM 

Euro/USA 1.1698 DOWN .0043 (Euro DOWN 43 Basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/

USA/Japan: 110.81 UP 0.224(Yen DOWN 22 basis points/ 

Great Britain/USA 1.2856 DOWN  0.0010( POUND DOWN 10 BASIS POINTS)

USA/Canada 1.2707 DOWN .0046 (Canadian dollar UP  46 basis points AS OIL FELL TO $47.20

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This afternoon, the Euro was DOWN  by 43 basis points to trade at 1.1698

The Yen FELL to 110.81 for a LOSS of 22  Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE  /OPERATION REVERSE TWIST ANNOUNCED SEPT 21.2016

The POUND FELL BY 10  basis points, trading at 1.2856/ 

The Canadian dollar ROSE by 46 basis points to 1.2707,  WITH WTI OIL FALLING TO :  $47.20

The USA/Yuan closed at 6.6916/
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.042%  DOWN 4/5 IN  BASIS POINTS / yield/ 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 0  IN basis points from TUESDAY at 2.262% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic  USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.839 UP 0 in basis points on the day /

Your closing USA dollar index, 94.04  UP 19 CENT(S)  ON THE DAY/1.00 PM 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 1:00 PM EST

London:  CLOSED UP 49.18 POINTS OR 0.67%
German Dax :CLOSED UP 86.82 POINTS OR 0.71%
Paris Cac  CLOSED UP 36.36 POINTS OR 0.71% 
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP  62.80 POINTS OR 0.60%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 262.64 POINTS OR 1.21% 

The Dow closed UP 5.28 OR 0.02%

NASDAQ WAS closed DOWN 7.22  POINTS OR 0.11%  4.00 PM EST

WTI Oil price;  47.20 at 1:00 pm; 

Brent Oil: 50.61 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE CROSS:  59.45 DOWN 23/100 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 23 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES TO  +0.443%  FOR THE 10 YR BOND  4.PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today

Closing Price for Oil, 5 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 5:00 PM:$46.77

BRENT: $50.30

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.225%  (ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 2.70% BLOWS UP THE GLOBE)

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.810%

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS:  1.1766 UP .0026

USA/JAPANESE YEN:110.10  DOWN  0.43

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 93.50  DOWN 35  cent(s) 

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.2885 : UP 18 POINTS FROM LAST NIGHT  

Canadian dollar: 1.2622 UP 69 BASIS pts 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: +0.443%

END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

Gold Gains As Stocks Sink After Trump Turmoil, Fed Fear-mongering

Shitty day for Housing Recovery enthusiasts, the Trump administration, and Fed followers…

 

Stock actually ended the day higher thanks to the overnight bid and panic squeeze at the open but the theme of the day was simple – Trump is in trouble (agenda on the rocks) and The Fed is explicitly warning about bubbles…

 

VIX ended the day lower but once again it was a game of two halves (NOTE Russell 2000 ‘VIX’ was higher on the day)…

 

AAPL pushed to new record highs as the great rotation from FANG stocks continues…

 

The Dollar was dumped and bond yields tumbled after Trump and accelerated after The Fed…

 

With the AMZN issue out of the way, selling pressure lifts on bonds and today’s turmoil put a bid under prices…

 

The Dollar Index erased most of its gains from the last two days…

Flows swung toward risk-off after U.S. Vice President Pence dialed up the rhetoric, saying North Korea must permanently abandon its nuclear ambitions. This followed news from the White House earlier in the day that Trump and Pence would meet with the National Security team regarding Southeast Asia on Friday at Camp David.

 

Gold jumped on warmongery and Trump turmoil then shifted higher on a dovish Fed statement… Crude was ugly after a large crude draw offset by a surprise build in gasoline stocks.

 

The analog continues to hold…

 

end

 

The big announcement from the Fed:

 

the key: they are not getting wage inflation and that is killing them. They will supposedly begin the balance sheet normalization in Sept..good luck to them..

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

 

FOMC Minutes Signal Balance Sheet Normalization Begins In September, Most Saw Inflation Pick Up

Since the July 26th ‘nothingburger’ FOMC statement, Nasdaq is down but bonds and bullion are higher as domestic politics and global war have trumped monetary machinations. All eyes in today’s Minutes will be on any mention of inflation and the balance sheet. The Fed sees inflation “picking up over the next couple years” but this came before last week’s dismal CPI/PPI data (and they noted “downside risks”), and confirmed that they will make a balance sheet move “at upcoming meeting.”

Additional headlines:

  • *MOST FED OFFICIALS SAW INFLATION PICK-UP OVER NEXT COUPLE YEARS
  • *MOST FED OFFICIALS BACKED B/SHEET MOVE AT `AN UPCOMING MEETING’

However, The Fed is worried about inflation:

  • MANY FED OFFICIALS SAW WEAK INFLATION DUE IDIOSYNCRATIC FACTORS
  • SOME OFFICIALS CONCERNED BY WEAK INFLATION, ARGUE FOR PATIENCE

The key segments, courtesy of Bloomberg:

On the start of balance sheet unwind:

  • “Although several participants were prepared to announce a starting date for the program at the current meeting, most preferred to defer that decision until an upcoming meeting while accumulating additional information on the economic outlook and developments potentially affecting financial markets.”

More on timing:

  • “Participants generally agreed that, in light of their current assessment of economic conditions and the outlook, it was appropriate to signal that implementation of the program likely would begin relatively soon, absent significant adverse developments in the economy or in financial markets. Many noted that the program was expected to contribute only modestly to the reduction in policy accommodation.”

On inflation:

  • “Most participants indicated that they expected inflation to pick up over the next couple of years from its current low level and to stabilize around the Committee’s 2 percent objective over the medium term.”
  • “Many participants, however, saw some likelihood that inflation might remain below 2 percent for longer than they currently expected, and several indicated that the risks to the inflation outlook could be tilted to the downside.”
  • “Many participants noted that much of the recent decline in inflation had probably reflected idiosyncratic factors.”
  • “Participants agreed that a fall in longer-term inflation expectations would be undesirable, but they differed in their assessments of whether inflation expectations were well anchored.”
  • “A few participants cited evidence suggesting that this framework was not particularly useful in forecasting inflation. However, most participants thought that the framework remained valid, notwithstanding the recent absence of a pickup in inflation in the face of a tightening labor market and real GDP growth in excess of their estimates of its potential rate.”
  • “Some participants expressed concern about the recent decline in inflation, which had occurred even as resource utilization had tightened, and noted their increased uncertainty about the outlook for inflation.”

On a possible overshoot in the labor market:

“A few participants expressed concerns about the possibility of substantially overshooting full employment, with one citing past difficulties in achieving a soft landing.”

On rising lending risks:

  • “A couple of participants expressed concern that smaller banks could be assuming significant risks in efforts to expand their CRE lending.”

On policy uncertainty:

  • “Several participants noted that uncertainty about the course of federal government policy, including in the areas of fiscal policy, trade, and health care, was tending to weigh down firms’ spending and hiring plans.”
  • “It was also observed that the budgets of some state and local governments were under strain, limiting growth in their expenditures. In contrast, the prospects for U.S. exports had been boosted by a brighter international economic outlook.”

The now traditional commentary on markets and financial conditions.

  • Several participants noted that the further increases in equity prices, together with continued low longer-term interest rates, had led to an easing of financial conditions. However, different assessments were expressed about the implications of this development for the outlook for aggregate demand and, consequently, appropriate monetary policy.
  • According to another view, recent rises in equity prices might be part of a broad-based adjustment of asset prices to changes in longer-term financial conditions, importantly including a lower neutral real interest rate, and, therefore, the recent equity price increases might not provide much additional impetus to aggregate spending on goods and services.

On equity valuations:

  • “Participants also considered equity valuations in their discussion of financial stability. A couple of participants noted that favorable macroeconomic factors provided backing for current equity valuations; in addition, as recent equity price increases did not seem to stem importantly from greater use of leverage by investors, these increases might not pose appreciable risks to financial stability.”

And the punchline as regards to stocks:

  • According to one view, the easing of financial conditions meant that the economic effects of the Committee’s actions in gradually removing policy accommodation had been largely offset by other factors influencing financial markets, and that a tighter monetary policy than otherwise was warranted.

Of course, any confusion in these minutes can always be cleaned up next week at Jackson Hole.

* * *

Key conclusions:

  • As expected, September remains in play for balance-sheet announcement, though no specific timetable mentioned
  • Most FOMC participants preferred to announce the start of the balance-sheet runoff at “an upcoming meeting,” while “several” were ready to go in July
  • Inflation debate deepens. Most officials expected inflation to pick up next couple years and stabilize around 2%; many saw chances inflation may stay below that level for longer than expected
  • Some Fed officials see scope for rate-hike patience, others caution a delay could lead to inflation overshoot
  • FOMC united against a loosening of financial regulations that would allow for risky practices;
  • The Fed is concerned about policy uncertainty hurting investment
  • FOMC discussed equities, agreed to monitor bank behavior; some concern expressed about small-banks’ risk in commercial real-estate lending

*  *  *

Rate hike odds for December are around 42% – unchanged from the FOMC Statement in July…

 

Not what The Fed was hoping for…

 

The dollar is unchanged but bonds are bid…

 

Why is the FOMC considering raising rates again this year? Bloomberg notes one reason is concern about asset prices and the potential from the unwinding of a bubble. This could well have been debated, with, for example, Eric Rosengren of Boston particularly worried about commercial real estate, while Yellen has cited stock prices as being elevated.

 

Of course, that’s not how the market sees it…

 

Full FOMC Minutes below:

 

 

If the USA government would remove mortgage deductibility from their taxes, house prices would collapse and put many under water. It would also kill the charitable organizations

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Realtors Warn Of “Another Housing Crash” If Mortgage Tax Deductions Are Scrapped

After failing miserably if their efforts to repeal and replace Obamacare, Republicans are set to shift their legislative agenda to focus on tax reform when they get back from their generous month-long August recess (taxpayers are such great employers).  Among other things, proposed changes to the personal tax code would include eliminating nearly all tax write-offs, including those for state and local taxes, and instead doubling the standard deduction.

Of course, potentially no industry would be more impacted by such a move as the housing market which has sparked a slight panic at the National Association of Realtors (NAR).  As Reuters points out this morning, roughly 30 million taxpayers taxpayers claim mortgage interest deductions totaling some $70 billion each year which provides a huge incentive to own a home.

The National Association of Realtors issued an “August Recess Talking Points” circular imploring members to remind lawmakers that “Homeowners must be treated fairly in tax reform” to avoid “another housing crash.”

 

The group cited a report it commissioned from PwC that estimated home values could quickly dive more than 10 percent if the tax plan becomes law.

 

Currently, about 30 million taxpayers claim the mortgage interest deduction, with about $70 billion in total claims, according to Robert Dietz, an economist with the National Association of Homebuilders.

 

Estimates suggest more than half of taxpayers would stop itemizing under the proposed plan, Dietz said, warning that this would create a large ripple effect through the economy. He said people in early years of a mortgage would suffer most, along with prospective home buyers.

House

 

Meanwhile, talking points distributed by NAR, intended to give realtors around the country ammunition against their elected officials while they’re ‘vacationing’ in their districts, warns that tampering with the mortgage deduction could cause “home values everywhere to plunge” resulting in many homeowners once again going “under water” on their primary asset.

–  Proposals limiting tax incentives for homeownership would cause home values everywhere to plunge. Estimates provided by PwC show that values could fall in the short run by more than 10 percent if a Blueprint-like tax reform plan were enacted. The drop could be even larger in high-cost areas.   It may take years for home values to rebound from such a significant decrease.

 

–  With a reduction in values of this size, homeowners with relatively small amounts of equity would again see their mortgages go under water, finding they owe more than what their home is worth. For many, this will lead to defaults, foreclosures, or short sales, creating havoc for families, neighborhoods and communities.

 

–  The home is the most valuable asset for most owners. Millions of families have built equity for years with the hope of using it to help pay for retirement or college for children. Many of these dreams would evaporate.

But it’s not just the housing market that would be impacted as the CEO of the American Red Cross warned that removing charitable deductions would be “devastating” for non-profit organizationsthat currently collect some $13 billion worth of tax-deductible donations annually.

Charitable organizations are not arguing against increasing the standard deduction. But they are asking members of Congress to consider creating a “universal deduction,” so taxpayers taking the standard deduction can get additional credit for donations without itemizing.

 

Taxpayers claim an estimated $13 billion each year in charitable deductions. Charities fear giving would plummet if the standard deduction were doubled without creating a universal deduction.

 

Gail McGovern, president and CEO of the American Red Cross, said reducing charitable deductions would be “devastating.”

But it’s probably no ‘yuge’ deal…the U.S. housing stock is only worth about $30 trillion so we’re sure the homebuilders and lenders can absorb a small $3 trillion valuation loss, right?

Trump lashes out at Jeff Bezos of Amazon as he states that he is doing great damage to retailers something that we have been pointing out.  He states that he is hurting cities and of course jobs
(courtesy zero hedge)

Trump Lashes Out At Bezos: “Amazon Is Doing Great Damage To Retailers; Hurting Cities And Jobs”

Amazon stock dropped a much as 1.2% in the pre-market (down 0.7% last), after an early start of the Trump tweets on Wednesday where with his first tweet he attacked the giant online retailer, saying “Amazon is doing great damage to tax paying retailers. Towns, cities and states throughout the U.S. are being hurt – many jobs being lost!”

Amazon is doing great damage to tax paying retailers. Towns, cities and states throughout the U.S. are being hurt – many jobs being lost!

Trump’s comment hardly conveys new information, and underscores what Dick’s CEO Ed Stack said yesterday during his striking conference call in which he said the retail industry is in “panic mode”, liquidating inventory to keep market share, and hit by a “perfect storm” in which Amazon is a key culprit:  “Dick’s is another example of Amazon becoming the new middleman… Here we go down the gross margin rabbit hole just in time for the holidays.”

The question, of course, is whether the tweet is indicative of another policy shift by the Trump administration, one in which the president will focus on the giant online retailer as a potential monopoly and bring up anti-trust considerations, potentially sparking fears of a government mandated break up. Of course, Trump’s tweet may have simply been prompted by something he read in the Bezos-owned WaPo this morning, resulting in the angry tweet.

Indicatively, last week Defense Secretary James Mattis visited Amazon’s HQ in Seattle, where CEO Jeff Bezos posted a photo of him showing Mattis around the headquarters.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Another dandy commentary from David Stockman.  He tells the real truth behind the strength of the uSA economy.
He feels that the real crunch will come next month when the debt ceiling stops the uSA dead in its tracks and nothing will be done due to the fractured nature of Republicans and the hatred between the Democrats and Republicans
(courtesy David Stockman/DailyReckoning)

 

After 100 Months Of Buying-The-Dip – Stockman Warns Of “Peak Crazy”

Authored by David Stockman via The Daily Reckoning,

Just call it Peak Crazy and move on. There is absolutely no reason for the stock markets to be at current levels, let alone melting-up day after day. The fact that this is happening is a measure of how impaired capital markets have become as a result of massive central bank intrusion.

The robo-machines and day traders keep buying the dips because that has “worked” for the last 100 months. There is nothing more to it than residual momentum.

Under a regime of honest money and price discovery, the stock market discounts the future. There is no plausible future from here that’s worth 24 times S&P 500 value or 96 times the Russell 2000.

Surely the year-ahead earnings boom that Wall Street’s artists have penciled in is not in the slightest bit plausible. With 84% of the S&P 500 reporting Q2 results, LTM earnings are still 1.3% below where they were in September 2014.

Nothing has happened to corporate earnings in the last three years except deflation in the energy, materials and industrial sectors. After hitting $106 per share in September 2014, the global deflation cycle brought them to a low point of $86.44 per share in March 2016 in response to low $30s oil prices. The latter has since recovered to the $50 dollar zone – bringing S&P 500 earnings back to $104.61 during the current quarter.

The question remains: How does an aging business cycle and immense global headwinds justify the expectation of a red hot earnings breakout during the next 18 months? Yet that’s what’s happening on Wall Street. We’ve hit nearly $133 per share of GAAP earnings (and $145 of the ex-items variety) for the LTM period ending in December 2018, meaning a prospective surge of 27%.

Even if you credit Wall Street’s ex-items approach to operating earnings, the story is the same. Why will the eventual 2018 outcome be any different than the cliff-diving of the last three years?

Earnings Est of SPI

As things stand, 2018 expectations look way elevated.

The current earnings growth estimated for 2018 would amount to more than the 23% gain that has been recorded during the past decade!

In June 2007, reported LTM earnings for the S&P 500 was posted at $85 per share. That would mean that earnings have grown at the tepid rate of 2.1% per annum for the last 10-years; and those are nominal dollars.

Take out inflation and share buybacks and there’s essentially no gain at all on a peak-to-peak basis.

When it comes to robo-traders, there are some very powerful muscle memory aspects pushing the averages relentlessly higher. It’s the deformation you get when the normal mechanisms of market discipline, such as short sellers and economic pricing of options and hedges, that are destroyed by wealth effects based central planning.

It is Wall Street’s extreme vulnerability to violent crashes that come when two-way markets are destroyed in the name of tricking people into believing they are wealthier than they actually are. The bubble reaches its height and then there is nothing left below because stock prices have become decoupled from economic and profit fundamentals.

S&P500

The financial truth remains that nothing grows to the sky, including the Dow index. The cracks are already emerging all around. The end-of-bubble narrowing to fewer and fewer big cap safe havens is proceeding rapidly.

Since July 25, before Amazon’s big earnings miss, most of the market had been falling or treading water. While the Dow is up by 2.2%, the transports were down by 2.8% and the Russell 2000 is off by 2.6%. The S&P 500 equal weight index is off by 0.8% and even the NASDAQ 100 is 0.5% below its July 25th level.

In this machine driven market, any of these indices could resume their mad momentum based climb. But negative divergences are breaking out everywhere, and that’s usually a sign that the end is near.

Margins on debt has again reached an all-time high of $550 billion. The chart below leaves little doubt as to what comes next. After the 2000 peak, margin debt collapsed by 50% as stocks were violently liquidated to meet margin calls. All this while in 2008 the shrinkage of margin debt was even larger – nearly 60%. This time, however, a similar shrinkage would cause a $325 billion decline in margin balances.That’s a lot of stocks on a fire sale.

NYSE Margin Debt

The casino will eventually collapse under its own weight, even as the fractures and divergences continue to mount.

The economic Swans are coming. If Trump’s continued tweet-storms are any indication, the first Swan is likely to be Orange. The fact is, the occupant of the Oval Office is flat-out delusional and unhinged.

Within 4-5 weeks Trump will be impaled on a debt ceiling and continuing resolution crisis which will suck all the air from the governance process in Washington. The event will make a mockery of the White House pitch and any belief for House action on the tax bill in October.

The only thing which will happen by year-end on Capitol Hill is an inglorious defeat on ObamaCare repeal (instead, there will be an insurance company bailout in return for some tiny changes in the ObamaCare insurance mandates). Expect repeated short-term patches on the debt ceiling and continuing resolutions that will manage to keep the lights on in the Washington Monument a few weeks at a time.

We seriously doubt the Donald will survive the market crash which is likely to be triggered by the unexpected fiscal bloodbath just around the corner. From there he will rue the day that he left Janet Yellen at the Fed in place, rather than allowing the “big fat, ugly bubble” to collapse on their account in January.

Now that Trump and his surrogates are taking ownership of a hideously over-valued stock market, there’s little doubt that the coming crash will be the straw that breaks the camel’s back.

As we have previously noted, Tricky Dick’s election in 1972 was also treated with a 15% market bump. And that was on the back of a 42-28 million vote landslide and running the tables on the electoral college with 504 votes.

S&P Index Nixon

Nixon appeared to be especially invincible in January 1973 because he had spent 27 years on the GOP circuit. He had spoke for more GOP politicians and candidates than any President in recorded history, before or since.

Still, the Nixon bubble evaporated steadily – dropping by more than one-third until Tricky Dick was shown his way out of the White House.

It now seems likely that Trump Bubble’s collapse will be far faster, deeper and more violent. The Orange Swan is what now hangs over the market like the Sword of Damocles. The question is only about when, not if, it comes plunging down on a casino mad with Peak Crazy.

end

 

As many advisers to the Trump manufacturing council and Policy forum left, the President decided to disband the council in its entirety.  Seems the administration is falling apart.  Gold and silver rise on the news.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Disbands Manufacturing Council & Strategy & Policy Forum; Pence Ends LatAm Trip Early

While the CEOs within the various administration councils had decided to disband, President Trump has tweeted over the top to give the appearance that he decided to shut them down…

Rather than putting pressure on the businesspeople of the Manufacturing Council & Strategy & Policy Forum, I am ending both. Thank you all!

 

 

As we detailed earlier, with CEOs dropping like flies from Trump’s manufacturing councel, with 3M and Campbell Soup CEOs announcing they are out, CNBC reports that President Trump’s Strategic and Policy Forum has agreed to disband.  The business advisory council is, or rather was, made up of top business leaders is separate from Trump’s manufacturing council, which several business leaders left this week.

The Strategic and Policy Forum, led by Blackstone CEO Steve Schwarzman, featured, among others:

  • JPMorgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon
  • BlackRock’s Larry Fink
  • Wal-Mart’s Doug McMillon
  • IBM’s Ginni Rometty

“The thinking was it was important to do as a group,” a member told CNBC. “As a panel, not as individuals because it would have more significant impact. It makes a central point that it’s not going to go forward. It’s done.”

Bloomberg confirms that Trump’s council of senior business leaders who advise on strategy and policy is disbanding, according to a person familiar with the matter.

The executive council, which is led by Blackstone Group LP’s Stephen Schwarzman, planned to inform the White House Wednesday before making the announcement public, according to the person, who wasn’t authorized to discuss the matter publicly.

 

The strategy group is one of several the White House convened earlier this year to advise the president.

 

Several CEOs from a manufacturing council have quit this week, following blowback over Trump’s remarks about racially charged violence in Virginia on Saturday.

This follows the mass exodus of CEOs, most recently 3M and Campbell CEOs. Inge Thulin, the chairman and CEO of 3M , on Wednesday announced his resignation from President Donald Trump’s manufacturing council.

“Sustainability, diversity and inclusion are my personal values and also fundamental to the 3M Vision. The past few months have provided me with an opportunity to reflect upon my commitment to these values,” he said in a statement. “I joined the Manufacturing Jobs Initiative in January to advocate for policies that align with our values and encourage even stronger investment and job growth – in order to make the United States stronger, healthier and more prosperous for all people. After careful consideration, I believe the initiative is no longer an effective vehicle for 3M to advance these goals. As a result, today I am resigning from the Manufacturing Advisory Council. At 3M, we will continue to champion an environment that supports sustainability, diversity and inclusion. I am committed to building a company that improves lives in every corner of the world.”

And Campbell Soup Company CEO left shortly after:

Richard Trumka, Thea Lee resign from Pres. Trump’s manufacturing council: “We cannot sit on a council for a president who tolerates bigotry” pic.twitter.com/lE7Zi566II

NEW: Inge Thulin, Pres. and CEO of 3M, resigns from Trump’s manufacturing council: “We will continue to champion…diversity and inclusion.” pic.twitter.com/914A2G2Z9z

View image on Twitter

They join Merck CEO Kenneth Frazier, Under Armour’s Kevin Plank, Intel’s Brian Krzanich, Alliance for American Manufacturing president Scott Paul and AFL-CIO president Richard Trumpka in exiting the council, which is headed by Dow Chemical CEO Andrew Liveris. Thea Lee, former deputy chief of staff of the AFL-CIO, said on Twitter she is quitting the council as well.

Tesla’s Elon Musk and Disney’s Bob Iger in June dropped out of a strategic and policy forum to the president following his decision to withdraw the United States from the Paris climate accord. Since-ousted Uber CEO Travis Kalanick quit the council in February over employee backlash.

As a reminder, President Trump tweeted yesterday:

“For every CEO that drops out of the Manufacturing Council, I have many to take their place. Grandstanders should not have gone on. JOBS!”

That remains to be seen, meanwhile VP Pence just made statement confirming he will be returning early from his LatAm trip:

  • PENCE: WILL END TRIP A BIT EARLY AFTER PANAMA VISIT
  • PENCE SAYS HE’S RETURNING TO U.S. TOMORROW FROM LATIN AMERICA

end

Jamie Dimon to his staff: He “strongly disagrees with President Trump’s reaction re Charlotteville

(courtesy zero hedge)

Jamie Dimon’s Memo To JPMorgan Employees: “I Strongly Disagree With President Trump’s Reaction”

With Trump’s key economic advisory forums now disbanded following a mass exodus of corporate CEOs, moments ago JPM CEO Jamie Dimon joined the pile up stating that “the members of the President’s Strategic and Policy Forum agreed to disband” and noting that “the group put out its own statement” he wanted “you to understand why I personally supported this decision and how strongly I feel about these issues.”

His argument:

…fanning divisiveness is not the answer. Constructive economic and regulatory policies are not enough and will not matter if we do not address the divisions in our country. It is a leader’s role, in business or government, to bring people together, not tear them apart.

 

Racism, intolerance and violence are always wrong. The equal treatment of all people is one of our nation’s bedrock principles. There is no room for equivocation here: the evil on display by these perpetrators of hate should be condemned and has no place in a country that draws strength from our diversity and humanity.

The full message from Dimon follows:

I strongly disagree with President Trump’s reaction to the events that took place in Charlottesville over the past several days. Racism, intolerance and violence are always wrong. The equal treatment of all people is one of our nation’s bedrock principles. There is no room for equivocation here: the evil on display by these perpetrators of hate should be condemned and has no place in a country that draws strength from our diversity and humanity.

 

As a company and for all business in general, it is critical that we help develop rational, intelligent policies to help expand opportunities for all of our citizens. I know that times are tough for many. The lack of economic growth and opportunity has led to deep and understandable frustration among so many Americans. But fanning divisiveness is not the answer. Constructive economic and regulatory policies are not enough and will not matter if we do not address the divisions in our country. It is a leader’s role, in business or government, to bring people together, not tear them apart.

 

Today, the members of the President’s Strategic and Policy Forum agreed to disband. The group put out its own statement. But I also wanted you to understand why I personally supported this decision and how strongly I feel about these issues.

 

I’m very proud of the 250,000 people working here at JPMorgan Chase. I see your values every day – in how you treat your clients, your communities and each other. I am proud to see so many of you leading by example and not losing sight of the core principles which made our country great. I stand with you.

end

 

it now seems that a company hired a “crowd” for 25 dollars per hour recruiting political activists and these individuals landed in Charlotte

 

(courtesy zero hedge)_

 

Why Was This ‘Crowd Hire’ Company Recruiting $25 An Hour ‘Political Activists’ In Charlotte Last Week?

Trump ignited a political firestorm yesterday during an impromptu press conference in which he said there was “blame on both sides” for the tragic events that occurred in Charlottesville over the weekend.

Now, the discovery of a craigslist ad posted last Monday, almost a full week before the Charlottesville protests, is raising new questions over whether paid protesters were sourced by a Los Angeles based “public relations firm specializing in innovative events” to serve as agitators in counterprotests.

The ad was posted by a company called “Crowds on Demand” and offered $25 per hour to “actors and photographers” to participate in events in the “Charlotte, NC area.”  While the ad didn’t explicitly define a role to be filled by its crowd of “actors and photographers” it did ask applicants to comment on whether they were “ok with participating in peaceful protests.”  Here is the text from the ad:

Actors and Photographers Wanted in Charlotte

 

Crowds on Demand, a Los Angeles-based Public Relations firm specializing in innovative events, is looking for enthusiastic actors and photographers in the Charlotte, NC area to participate in our events. Our events include everything from rallies to protests to corporate PR stunts to celebrity scenes. The biggest qualification is enthusiasm, a “can-do” spirit. Pay will vary by event but typically is $25+ per hour plus reimbursements for gas/parking/Uber/public transit.

 

For more information about us, please visit www.crowdsondemand.com

 

If you’re interested in working with us, please reply to this posting with the following info:

  • Full Name
  • Prior relevant experience (as an actor/performer, photographer, brand ambassador, political activist, etc)
  • When are you usually available for work?
  • Resume (optional)
  • If you’re a photographer, what equipment do you use?
  • Are you ok with participating in peaceful protests (optional)?

And a screenshot of the original post:

Craigslist

 

So what is “Crowds on Demand?”  According to their own website, they’re in the business of sourcing large crowds of people to “provide clients with protests, rallies, [and] flash-mobs” all over the country.  They even have an entire page on their website dedicated to “Protests and Rallies.”

Are you looking to create a buzz anywhere in the United States? At Crowds on Demand, we provide our clients with protests, rallies, flash-mobs, paparazzi events and other inventive PR stunts. These services are available across the country in every major U.S city, every major U.S metro area and even most smaller cities as well. We provide everything including the people, the materials and even the ideas. You can come to us with a specific plan of action and we can make it happen. OR, you can approach us with a general  idea and we can help you plan the strategy then execute it.

 

We’ve made campaigns involving hundreds of people come to action in just days. We have a proven record of delivering major wins on even the toughest campaigns and delivering phenomenal experiences with even the most logistically challenging events.

The CEO of Crowds on Demand denied to Snopes that his firm was involved in the Charlottesville protests but refused to provide details on the specific purpose of the craigslist ad and/or why it was temporarily removed yesterday before being restored.

“We were not involved in any capacity with the recent tragic events in Charlottesville, Virginia. Our thoughts and prayers are with the families of those impacted by the violence”

Silly question, but if your cause is worthy of protest then why would you need to pay $25 per hour to get people to show up?

 

WELL THAT ABOUT DOES IT FOR TONIGHT

I will see you THURSDAY  night

Harvey.

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