August 18/2017*/Steve Bannon ousted/Breitbart promises “thermonuclear war”/gold down 35 cents/silver down 4 cents on 7th consecutive raid/Deborah Wasserman Schultz’s aide charged.

GOLD: $1286.15  DOWN $0.35

Silver: $17.02  DOWN 4 cent(s)

Closing access prices:

Gold $1284.50

silver: $16.99

SHANGHAI GOLD FIX:  FIRST FIX  10 15 PM EST  (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SECOND FIX:  2:15 AM EST  (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1291.88 DOLLARS PER OZ

NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME:  $1287.95

PREMIUM FIRST FIX:  $3.93

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SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1298.42

NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1287.40

Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$9.02

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LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX:  5:30 am est  $1295.25

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1295.85 

LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX  10 AM: $1295.50

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. $1297.65 ????

For comex gold:

AUGUST/

NOTICES FILINGS TODAY FOR APRIL CONTRACT MONTH: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR  nil  OZ.

TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 4581 FOR 458,100 OZ  (14.248 TONNES) 

For silver:

AUGUST

 51 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR

255,000  OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 1051 for 5,255,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

end

Today for the 7th consecutive day we had a raid on both gold and silver.

 

Late at night after I received the preliminary data which gives me a good idea of where we are heading for the next day…..

 

I wrote this to my friends:

“my goodness!!……

I will be shocked if we do not have another raid for the 7th consecutive trading day.
the Oi for gold is just too high..
let us see.”
with gold ready to puncture $1300.00 and silver $17.25, you could sense that the bankers had to cool both of our precious metals. The fact that silver lagged behind gold was a good sign that a raid was called upon as well as the weak close of the gold/equity stocks.
The most important aspect of today’s data is in silver. In the COT report, the bankers did not increase their massive shortfall position in silver because they are aware of the acute shortage of metal in London. The COT report shows a huge increase in commercial short position in gold but not silver.
The bankers needed a good positive close at the Dow and Nasdaq with the Bannon firing. After the Dow initially rose past 50 points, it closed down 75 points on the day….expect huge weakness again once the new week begins.

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

In silver, the total open interest  ROSE BY 1,565 contracts from 188,247 up to 189,812 with THE RISE IN THE PRICE THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK WITH  YESTERDAY’S TRADING (UP 11 CENTS) . THE BANKERS AGAIN PROVIDED THE SHORT PAPER TO INITIATE ANOTHER RAID YESTERDAY (6TH CONSECUTIVE DAY OF TORMENT). THAT FAILED IMMEDIATELY AS SILVER STARTED TO ADVANCE IN PRICE.  NEWBIE SPEC LONGS REALIZING ANOTHER FAILED RAID, JUMPED ONTO THE BANDWAGON WITH PURCHASES.  HOWEVER THE COMMERCIALS WERE STILL LOATHE TO SUPPLY THE SHORT CONTRACTS. THUS A HUGE ADVANCE IN PRICE WITH A SMALLER THAN GOLD GAIN IN OI. 

 In ounces, the OI is still represented by just UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e.  0.949 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 136% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MAY MONTH/ THEY FILED: 51 NOTICE(S) FOR 255,000  OZ OF SILVER

In gold, the open interest ROSE by A MONSTROUS 10,722 WITH THE GOOD SIZED RISE in price of gold ($13.45 GAIN YESTERDAY.). The new OI for the gold complex rests at 493,127. A raid was called upon yesterday by the bankers and it failed. The bankers initiated the raid with short paper but newbie longs entered the arena with reckless abandon with the lower price of gold . Thus the bankers were not successful in covering their shorts but they did supply the necessary short paper to our newbie spec longs.  The result: increase in open interest with a higher price for gold.

we had: 0 notice(s) filed upon for nil oz of gold.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD:

Today, no changes in gold inventory:

Inventory rests tonight: 795.44 tonnes

IN THE LAST 25 TRADING DAYS: GLD SHEDS 41.53 TONNES YET GOLD IS HIGHER BY $53.15 . 

SLV

Today:  WE HAD NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY TONIGHT:

INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.407 MILLION OZ

end

.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in silver RISE BY 1565 contracts from 188,247 up to 189,812 (AND now A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET ON FRIDAY/APRIL 21/2017 AT 234,787) WITH THE  RISE IN SILVER PRICE (11 CENTS). THE INITIAL RAID THURSDAY MORNING WAS REBUFFED IMMEDIATELY BY A HUGE INFLUX OF NEWBIE LONGS ENTERING THE SILVER COMEX CASINO.  BUT THIS TIME IT WAS GOLD THAT WAS IN THE LEAD AND SILVER LAGGED BEHIND. THE BANKERS STILL HAD A HARD TIME COVERING DUE TO THAT RISE IN PRICE.  YOU CAN CLEARLY VISUALIZE BANKER CAPITULATION AS THEY TRY DESPERATELY TO EXIT SOME OF THEIR ENORMOUS SHORTS.. NEWBIE LONGS ENTERED ONCE THEY SAW THE FAILED RAID, WITH THE SUPPLY COMING FROM OLD SPECS EXITING FOR A PROFIT.  RESULT: HIGHER PRICE WITH A SMALLER OI GAIN.

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

 

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY:  Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

 i)Late THURSDAY night/FRIDAY morning: Shanghai closed UP 0.29 POINTS OR 0.01%   / /Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 296.65 POINTS OR 1.08% The Nikkei closed DOWN 232.22 POINTS OR 1.18%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.49%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.6722/Oil UP to 47.18 dollars per barrel for WTI and 51.02 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED DEEPLY IN THE GREEN , Offshore yuan trades  6.6807 yuan to the dollar vs 6.6722 for onshore yuan. NOW THE OFFSHORE IS WEAKER  TO THE ONSHORE YUAN/ ONSHORE YUAN STRONGER (TO THE DOLLAR)  AND THE OFFSHORE YUAN IS STRONG TO THE DOLLAR AND THIS IS COUPLED WITH THE WEAKER DOLLAR. CHINA IS HAPPY TODAY 

3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA

i)NORTH KOREA//USA

South Korea and the USA are scheduled to have a massive war games on the peninsula.  Kim is already angry and predicts a “catastrophe”. Not only is North Korea angry but so is China who is suppose to rein in this unpredictable buffoon.

( zero hedge)

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

c) REPORT ON CHINA

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 SPAIN
i)There were two or three separate terror events in Spain yesterday.
The following highlights the second plot in the town of Cambrils where the police killed 5 terrorists
( zerohedge)
The Barcelona terrorists were planning a much bigger devastating attack but the building in which the plot was hatched blew up taking with them most of the explosives.
( zero hedge)
iii)GERMANY/FINLANDTwo knife attacks today: one in Germany and the other in Finland( zero hedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

7. OIL ISSUES

Oil rises of a bigger than expected rig count drop

( zerohedge)

8. EMERGING MARKET

9.   PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Mike Kosares on why we need gold and silver ownership
( Mike Kosares/GATA)

ii)Anglogold Ashanti is not too happy with its South African gold assets. It now has revived plans to spin these off

( Reuters/GATA)

10. USA Stories

i)Do not read too much into this:  soft data University of Michigan consumer sentiment beats expectations but most of the interviews were done prior to Charlottesville

 

( zero hedge)

ii)It seems that anybody with a pulse received financing for car.  Even bonuses were handed out for loaning money to poor credit risks.  It now looks like deep subprime auto delinquencies are spiking to 1o yr highs.  Trouble ahead in this arena

 

( zero hedge)

iii)Well that did not take long.  Wasserman Schultz’s IT aide, Awan has been indicted on 4 counts of bank fraud by lying to banks trying to obtain loan money.  Now the fun begins as they dig deeper into the DNC.  The big question: why did Debby Wasserman Schultz keep Awan on her payroll right up until he was arrested

(courtesy zero hedge)

iv)Matt Drudge reports that Steve Bannon is out at the White House
that will remove another key antagonist to the Goldman Sachs people surrounding the president.
( Matt Drudge/zero hedge)

v)As I mentioned above, Steve Bannon will be going after the globalists in Trump’s team which will further sever the chances for anything being done. Many voters who put Trump in power with the slogan America first will be thoroughly disappointed

 

a must read.

( zerohedge)

vi)Bannon set to go to war for Trump by trying to “drain the swamp”. He needs to marginalize the neocons and the Goldman Sachs lobby to win:

( zerohedge)

vii)It looks like a pardon for Julian Assange is coming forth so he can provide the correct person(s) who provided information to Wikileaks in the hacking of the DNC.

( zero hedge)

viii)This is something that we have been pointing out to you for the past few weeks:  Goldman Sachs sees a 50% chance of a government shutdown.  So do we!

(courtesy zerohedge)

Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest ROSE BY A HUGE 10,722 CONTRACTS UP to an OI level of 493,127 WITH THE RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($13.45 with THURSDAY’S trading). NEWBIE LONGS ENTERED THE ARENA ESPECIALLY TACKLING THE LOWER PRICE AS ANOTHER RAID WAS CALLED UPON BY OUR CROOKED BANKERS. THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SUPPLY THE SHORT PAPER.  THE HIGH OPEN INTEREST IN THE GOLD COMPLEX WAS FODDER AGAIN FOR OUR CROOKS AS THEY TRIED AGAIN  TO SHAKE MANY OF THE GOLD LEAVES FROM THE GOLD TREE: IT FAILED MISERABLY!!!.

We are now in the contract month of August and it is the 3rd best of the delivery months after December and June.

The active August contract GAINED 9 contract(s) to stand at 908 contracts. We had 2 notices filed on YESTERDAY so we GAINED 11 contracts or an additional 1100 oz will stand at the comex and 0 EFP’s were issued which entitles the long holder to a fiat bonus plus a futures contract and most probably that would be a London based forward.

The non active September contract month saw it’s OI LOSE 20 contracts DOWN to 1363.

The next active contract month is Oct and here we saw a GAIN of 1076 contracts UP to 50,629.

The very big active December contract month saw it’s OI GAIN 9520 contracts UP to 385,921.

We had 0 notice(s) filed upon today for   NIL oz

For those keeping score: in the upcoming front delivery month of August:

LAST YEAR WE HAD A MONSTROUS 44.7 TONNES OF GOLD INITIALLY.  BY THE CONCLUSION OF THE AUGUST CONTRACT MONTH 44.358 TONNES STOOD FOR DELIVERY.

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And now for the wild silver comex results.  Total silver OI  ROSE BY 1565 CONTRACTS FROM  188,247 UP TO 189,812 WITH YESTERDAY’S GOOD SIZED 11 CENT GAIN.  THERE IS NO QUESTION THAT WE ARE HAVING CONTINUAL BANKER CAPITULATION AS THEIR HUGE SHORTS IN SILVER ARE CHOKING THEM TO DEATH. THE BANKERS INITIATED ANOTHER RAID SUPPLYING  GOOD SIZED PAPER SHORTS WHICH INITIALLY DROVE THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN. HOWEVER IN TOTAL CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY, IT WAS SILVER THAT WAS LAGGING WITH RESPECT TO THE RISE IN GOLD. THE BANKERS STILL COULD NOT COVER ANY OF THEIR SHORTS WHICH WAS AGAIN THE OBJECT OF THE EXERCISE. THE NET RESULT: A SMALLER RISE IN OPEN INTEREST WHEN COMPARED TO GOLD AND A GOOD SIZED RISE IN PRICE.

We are now in the next big non active silver contract month of August and here the OI FELL 34 contracts DOWN TO 60. We had 85 notice(s) filed yesterday.  Thus we GAINED ANOTHER 51 contract(s) or an additional 255,000 oz will stand for delivery in this non active month of August and AGAIN zero EFP’s were issued for the August contract month. Please note that in gold we continually see EFP’s issued but not in silver!!

The next active contract month is September (and the last active month until December) saw it’s OI fall by 1476 contacts down to 94,017.  The next non active contract month for silver after September is October and here the OI gained 176 contacts up TO 405. After October, the big active contract month is December and here the OI GAINED by 2629 contracts UP to 83,530 contracts.

We had 51 notice(s) filed for  255,000 oz for the AUGUST 2017 contract

VOLUMES: for the gold comex

YESTERDAY’S confirmed volume was 340,107 which is excellent

volumes on gold are STILL HIGHER THAN NORMAL!

Initial standings for AUGUST

 August 18/2017.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz   nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz  
1,318.151 oz
Scotia
Brinks
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz   oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz 
83,289.359 oz
Brinks
No of oz served (contracts) today
 
0 notice(s)
nil OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
908 contracts
(90,800 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
4581 notices
458,100 oz
14.248 tonnes
Total accumulative withdrawals  of gold from the Dealers inventory this month   NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month   28,096.8  oz
Today we HAD  2 kilobar transaction(s)/ 
total dealer deposits: nil oz
We had nil dealer withdrawals:
total dealer withdrawals:  0 oz
we had 1  customer deposit(s):
 i) into Brinks: 83,289.359 oz
total customer deposits;  83,289.359  oz
We had 2 customer withdrawal(s)
i) Out of Scotia:  1286.000 oz (40 kilobars)
ii) Out of brinks: 32.151 oz (1 kilobar)
total customer withdrawals; 1318.151 oz
 we had 0 adjustment(s)
 
For AUGUST:

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 0  contract(s)  of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

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To calculate the initial total number of gold ounces standing for the AUGUST. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (4581) x 100 oz or 458,100 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST (908 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (0) x 100 oz per contract equals 548,900  oz, the number of ounces standing in this active month of AUGUST.
 
Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUST contract month:
No of notices served so far (4581) x 100 oz  or ounces + {(908)OI for the front month  minus the number of  notices served upon today (0) x 100 oz which equals 548,800 oz standing in this  active delivery month of AUGUST  (17.073 tonnes)
 we GAINED 11 contracts or an additional 1100 oz will stand for delivery and 0 EFP’s for August were issued.(FOR FIAT BONUS PLUS ANOTHER DELIVERABLE CONTRACT WHICH MOST LIKELY IS A LONDON BASED FORWARD)
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Total dealer inventory 758,311.027 or 23.58 tonnes  (dealer gold continues to disappear)
Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) = 8,707,110.590 or 270.82 tonnes 
 
Over a year ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today the total inventory rests at 270.82 tonnes for a  loss of 31  tonnes over that period.  Since August 8/2016 we have lost 82 tonnes leaving the comex. However I am including kilobar transactions and they are very suspect at best.
I have a sneaky feeling that these withdrawals of gold in kilobars are being used in the hypothecating process  and are being used in the raiding of gold!

The gold comex is an absolute fraud.  The use of kilobars and exact weights makes the data totally absurd and fraudulent! To me, the only thing that makes sense is the fact that “kilobars: are entries of hypothecated gold sent to other jurisdictions so that they will not be short with their underwritten derivatives in that jurisdiction.  This would be similar to the rehypothecated gold used by Jon Corzine at MF Global.
 
IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS  82 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.
end
And now for silver
AND NOW THE AUGUST DELIVERY MONTH
 
August initial standings
 August 18  2017
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory  nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
31,236.910 oz
 CNT
Brinks
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil  oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory 
nil
oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
51 CONTRACT(S)
(255,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
9 contracts
( 45,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 1051 contracts (5,255,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month  NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal  of silver from the Customer inventory this month 2,617,221.8 oz
today, we had  0 deposit(s) into the dealer account:
total dealer deposit: nil   oz
we had 0 dealer withdrawals:
total dealer withdrawals: NIL oz
we had 2 customer withdrawal(s):
i) out of  brinks: 1012.84 oz
ii) out of CNT: 30,224.110 oz
TOTAL CUSTOMER WITHDRAWALS:  31,236.910 oz
We had 0 Customer deposit(s):
***deposits into JPMorgan have stopped  again
In the month of March and February, JPMorgan stopped (received) almost all of the comex silver contracts.
why is JPMorgan bringing in so much silver??? why is this not criminal in that they are also the massive short in silver
total customer deposits: nil oz
 
 we had 2 adjustment(s)
i) Out of Delaware: 4998.646 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account of Delaware
The total number of notices filed today for the AUGUST. contract month is represented by 51 contract(s) for 255,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1051 x 5,000 oz  = 5,225,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST (60) and the number of notices served upon today (51) x 5000 oz equals the number of ounces standing
 

 

.
 
Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the AUGUST contract month:  1051 (notices served so far)x 5000 oz  + OI for front month of AUGUST(60 ) -number of notices served upon today (51)x 5000 oz  equals  5,300,000 oz  of silver standing for the AUGUST contract month. This is extremely high for a non active delivery month. Silver is being constantly demanded at the silver comex and we witness again the amount of silver increases daily right from the get go.
We GAINED ANOTHER 51 contracts or an additional 255,000 oz wishes to stand for delivery in this non active month of August and  0 EFP’s were issued for the silver August month.
At this point in the delivery cycle last year on August 16/2016 we had 100,246 contracts standing vs this yr at 94,017.
Last yr on the first day notice for the Sept silver contract we had 17.070 million oz stand for delivery.
By month end:  16.075 million oz/
 
 
 
 
Volumes: for silver comex
YESTERDAY’s  confirmed volume was 110,319 contracts which is OUT OF THIS WORLD
FRIDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 110,319 CONTRACTS WHICH EQUATES TO 551 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OR 79% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER EX CHINA EX RUSSIA). IN OUR HEARINGS THE COMMISSIONERS STRESSED THAT THE OPEN INTEREST SHOULD BE AROUND 3% OF THE MARKET.
 
Total dealer silver:  38.323 million (close to record low inventory  
Total number of dealer and customer silver:   215.627 million oz
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017  with the price at that day at  $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
end

NPV for Sprott and Central Fund of Canada

1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative 7.3 percent to NAV usa funds and Negative 7.4% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!! 
Percentage of fund in gold 62.6%
Percentage of fund in silver:37.4%
cash .+0.0%( August 18/2017) 
2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): STOCK   NAV RISES TO +0.49% (August 18/2017) 
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.32% to NAV  (August 17/2017 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back  into POSITIVE territory at +0.49/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ territory at -0.32%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail  but being rescued by Sprott.

Sprott’s hostile 3.1 billion bid to take over Central Fund of Canada

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

Sprott makes hostile $3.1 billion bid for Central Fund of Canada

 Section: Daily Dispatches

From the Canadian Press
via Canadian Broadcasting Corp. News, Toronto
Wednesday, March 8, 2017

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/sprott-takeover-bid-central-fund-c…

Toronto-based Sprott Inc. said Wednesday it’s making an all-share hostile takeover bid worth $3.1 billion US for rival bullion holder Central Fund of Canada Ltd.

The money-management firm has filed an application with the Court of Queen’s Bench of Alberta seeking to allow shareholders of Calgary-based Central Fund to swap their shares for ones in a newly-formed trust that would be substantially similar to Sprott’s existing precious metal holding entities.

The company is going through the courts after its efforts to strike a friendly deal were rebuffed by the Spicer family that controls Central Fund, said Sprott spokesman Glen Williams.

“They weren’t interested in having those discussions,” Williams said.

 Sprott is using the courts to try to give holders of the 252 million non-voting class A shares a say in takeover bids, which Central Fund explicitly states they have no right to participate in. That voting right is reserved for the 40,000 common shares outstanding, which the family of J.C. Stefan Spicer, chairman and CEO of Central Fund, control.

If successful through the courts, Sprott would then need the support of two-thirds of shareholder votes to close the takeover deal, but there’s no guarantee they will make it that far.

“It is unusual to go this route,” said Williams. “There’s no specific precedent where this has worked.”

Sprott did have success last year in taking over Central GoldTrust, a similar fund that was controlled by the Spicer family, after securing support from more than 96 percent of shareholder votes cast.

The firm says Central Fund’s shares are trading at a discount to net asset value and a takeover by Sprott could unlock US$304 million in shareholder value.

Central Fund did not have any immediate comment on the unsolicited offer. Williams said Sprott had not yet heard from Central Fund on the proposal but that some shareholders had already contacted them to voice their support.

Sprott’s existing precious metal holding companies are designed to allow investors to own gold and other metals without having to worry about taking care of the physical bullion.

end

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD

August 18/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 795.44 TONNES

August 17/late last night, a deposit of 4.43 tonnes of gold at the GLD/inventory rests at 795.44 tonnes/the bleeding of gold has stopped.

August 16/no change in gold inventory at the GLD. Inventory rests at 791.01 tonnes

August 15/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 791.01 tonnes

August 14/this is good!!: a gain of 4.14 tonnes of gold into the GLD inventory/the removal of GLD gone to the east has now stopped probably because there is no physical to send/inventory rests at 791.01 tonnes

August 11/no change in gold inventory/Inventory rests at 786.87 tonnes

August 7/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 787.14 tonnes

AUGUST 4/ANOTHER LOSS OF 4.48 TONNES OF GOLD FROM GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 787.14 TONNES.THIS IS A HUGE CRIME SCENE!!

August 3/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 791.88 tonnes

August 2/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 791.88 TONNES

Aug 1/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 791.88 TONNES

July 31/NO CHANGES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 791.88 TONNES

July 28/ANOTHER MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.54 TONNES OF GOLD WITH GOLD UP $9.15/INVENTORY RESTS AT 791.88 TONNES

July 27/LATE LAST NIGHT, A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.03 TONNES WITH GOLD UP $10.45 ON THE DAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 795.42 TONNES

July 26/NO CHANGE IN GLD INVENTORY WITH GOLD DOWN $2.55/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.45 TONNES

July 25/A MASSIVE 9.17 TONNES OF GOLD WITHDRAWN FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.45 TONNES

July 24/A massive 9.62 tonnes withdrawal and yet the price remains constant (down only 25 cents)..inventory drops to 809.62 tonnes

July 21/with gold up $8.75 again, we had no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 816.13 tonnes

July 20/WITH GOLD UP AGAIN TODAY ($3.50) WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 816.13 TONNES

jULY 19/STRANGE!! AGAIN WITH GOLD UP $0.50 WE HAD ANOTHER HUGE 5.32 TONNES WITHDRAWAL FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 816.13 TONNES  THIS GOLD IS HEADING TO SHANGHAI

July 18/STRANGE AGAIN/WITH GOLD UP $7.50 WE HAD ANOTHER HUGE 5.62 TONNES WITHDRAWAL FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 821.45 TONNES

July 17/strange again! with gold up $4.20 we had another huge withdrawal of 1.77 tonnes/inventory rests at 827.07 tonnes

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
August 18 /2017/ Inventory rests tonight at 795.44 tonnes
*IN LAST 215 TRADING DAYS: 154.44 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 155 TRADING DAYS: A NET  2.99 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  GLD INVENTORY.
*FROM FEB 1/2017: A NET  13.82 TONNES HAVE BEEN WITHDRAWN.

end

Now the SLV Inventory

August 18/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REST AT 334.407 MILLION OZ

August 17/A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.418 MILLION OZ LEAVES THE VAULTS OF THE SLV (WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS YESTERDAY?)/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.407 MILLION OZ

August 16/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 335.825 million oz/

August 15/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 335.825 million oz.

August 14./no change in silver inventory/inventory rests at 335.825 million/

August 11/no change in silver inventory tonight.  However we lost 3,781 million oz from Tuesday through Thursday. Inventory rests at 335.825 million oz/

August 7/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 339.606 million oz

AUGUST 4/A WITHDRAWAL OF 945,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 339.606 MILLION OZ

August 3/A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,181,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTOR RESTS AT 340.551 MILLION OZ/

August 2/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

INVENTORY RESTS AT 341.732 MILLION OZ/

August 1/A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 945,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 341.732 MILLION OZ/

July 31/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 342.677 million oz

July 28/ A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV DESPITE SILVER BEING UP 11 CENTS TODAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT  342.677 MILLION OZ

July 27/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 343.812 MILLION OZ WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY.

July 26/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 343.812 MILLION OZ

July 25/A MASSIVE 3.309 MILLION OZ OF INVENTORY WITHDRAWN FROM THE SLV DESPITE SILVER’S 10 CENT RISE TODAY.

July 24/no change in silver inventory despite its 4 cent drop/inventory remains at 347.121 million oz

July 21/STRANGE! WITH SILVER UP AGAIN TODAY (11 CENTS), NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/inventory 347.121 million oz/

July 20/STRANGE! WITH SILVER UP AGAIN TODAY, THE SLV INVENTORY LOWERS BY 945,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 347.121 MILLION OZ/

July 19/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 348.066 MILLION OZ

July 18/a huge 946,000 oz withdrawal from the SLV despite silver’s 16 cent gain!

Inventory rests at 348.066 million oz

July 17/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 349.012 million oz

August 18.2017:

 Inventory 334.407  million oz
end
  • 6 Month MM GOFO

    Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration

    + 1.34%
  • 12 Month MM GOFO
    + 1.49%
  • 30 day trend

end

 

at 3:30 pm est we receive the COT report.  No doubt we will see in gold the commercials increasing their mass positions.

Let us see.

COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report – August 18, 2017
 — Published: Friday, 18 August 2017 | Print  | Comment – New!

Gold COT Report – Futures
Large Speculators Commercial Total
Long Short Spreading Long Short Long Short
277,730 89,996 37,693 122,138 318,769 437,561 446,458
Change from Prior Reporting Period
31,353 -7,544 1,285 -3,030 34,090 29,608 27,831
Traders
160 109 68 53 56 242 209
 
Small Speculators  
Long Short Open Interest  
40,360 31,463 477,921  
-414 1,363 29,194  
non reportable positions Change from the previous reporting period
COT Gold Report – Positions as of Tuesday, August 15, 2017

Our large speculators

wow!!

those large specs that have been long in gold added a whopping 31,353 contracts to their long side

those large specs that have been short in gold covered 7544 contracts from their short side.

specs go net long by 39,000 contracts.

Our commercials

those commercials that have been long in gold pitched 3030 contracts from their long side

those commercials that have been short in gold added 34,090 contracts to their short side.

commercials go net short by 37,000 contracts

Our small specs

those large specs that have been long in gold pitched 414 contracts from their long side

those large specs that have been short in gold added 1363 contracts to their short side.

Conclusions:

commercials go hugely net short by supplying the short paper to which the longs gleefully accepted.

exactly as how I described it to you these past two weeks.

this is why we are experiencing mega raids every day

 

and now for our Silver COT

Silver COT Report: Futures
Large Speculators Commercial
Long Short Spreading Long Short
91,596 52,745 16,096 55,918 104,006
251 -4,736 -5,504 -3,355 5,172
Traders
87 60 50 39 39
Small Speculators Open Interest Total
Long Short 187,955 Long Short
24,345 15,108 163,610 172,847
1,400 -2,140 -7,208 -8,608 -5,068
non reportable positions Positions as of: 150 131
Tuesday, August 15, 2017   © SilverSee

Please note the difference between gold and silver.

the bankers are having a tough time supplying the short paper.

Our large speculators

those large specs that have been long in silver added only 251 contracts to their long side

those large specs that have been short in silver covered 4736 contracts from their short side

large specs go net long by 5000 contracts.

 

 

Our commercials

those commercials that have been long in silver pitched 3355 contracts from their long side

those commercials that have been short in silver were only able to add  5172 contracts to their short side (to initiate raids)

commercials go net short by only 8400 contracts.

Our small specs

those small specs that have been long in silver added 1588 contracts to their long side

those small specs that have been short in silver covered 1834 contracts from their short side.

Conclusions:

As I have described to you throughout the past 10 days, our commercials are having extreme trouble trying to cover their shorts.

end

Major gold/silver trading/commentaries for FRIDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.

GOLD/SILVER

Gold, Silver Consolidate On Last Weeks Gains, Palladium Surges 36% YTD To 16 Year High

– Gold and silver rise as stocks fall sharply after Barcelona attack
– Gold, silver 0.6% higher in week after last weeks 2%, 5% rise
– Palladium +36% ytd, breaks out & reaches 16 year high (chart)
– Gold to silver ratio falls to mid 75s after silver gains last week
– Perfect storm of financial and geopolitical tensions is driving safe haven demand and should see higher prices
– Weekly close over $1,300 could see gold quickly test $1,400
– Palladium at 16 year highs today; gold, silver in coming months?

2017 YTD Relative Performance (Finviz)

Editor Mark O’Byrne

This morning readers woke to the news that a second attack in 24 hours had taken place in Barcelona. So-called Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attacks in Spain.

Global stocks have fallen and precious metals have eked out gains this morning as investors seek out safe haven assets. Gold has risen to trade at its highest level since the beginning of June.

Gold’s reaction to the Barcelona events is likely to last and may continue today. The combination of heightened risk in the global geopolitical sphere is likely to support both gold and silver, pushing them through recent resistance. A weekly close above $1,300 per ounce will be very positive for gold and should see a rapid move to test the $1,400 level.

Gold and silver outperforming stocks

After losses earlier in the week, gold and silver have come right back and are now up 0.55% and 0.64% respectively. This is very positive as profit taking was to be expected after last weeks strong gains.

Gold and silver have consistently remained in the top-performing assets throughout the year and are beginning to outperform stocks.

In the year to date, gold is up nearly 13% whilst silver has climbed over 7.5%. The benchmark S&P500 is up 8.6% after weakness last week and this.

Both precious metals have performed well thanks to safe haven demand, much of which has been driven by very strong demand in India, China and Asia and ETF-demand in Europe.

Palladium at 16 year highs today; gold and silver in coming months

Palladium is up over 36% in the year-to-date and is the best performing commodity and market this year.

Palladium in USD – 30 Years (Macrotrends.net)

Consumption of the rare industrial precious metal is expected to hit 10.8 million ounces this year, an all-time high. Demand from the automotive industry, the biggest buyer of the metal, is up 4% this year.

Due to the high demand and limited availability of palladium there is market deficit of over 1 million ounces. The apparent five-year-long market deficit has begun to impact the availability of above-ground stocks.

This has prompted leasing rates to dramatically increase, taking the palladium market into backwardation of around 5-10%/year.

Much of palladium’s increased demand is thanks to increased demand for SUV vehicles which have to abide by tightening emission legislation from the EU. The latest announcement in the UK regarding a ban on diesel engines will also help to boost demand as consumers shift from diesel to petrol engines.

This suggests that there is little let-up for the tight supply conditions the palladium market is currently experiencing.

Safe haven demand to last

Safe haven demand is coming back and is again one of the firm drivers of precious metal prices. We have seen strong demand in August in what is frequently a quieter month as investors switch off and go on holidays.

We are operating in a very nervous financial and geopolitical environment globally. Geopolitical events can lead to price gains and safe haven demand. But the real risk is that a massive terrorist event or a cluster of many such events could impact consumer confidence, markets and the wider global economy.

And geopolitical risk is also seen in the complete mess that is U.S. politics and the Trump Presidency.

For instance, the latest drama from the Trump camp regarding the collapse of his business councils, is not in itself a reason to rush to precious metals. However, it is another sign of the cracks emerging in Trump’s administration and their complete inability to deliver on campaign promises.

The same can be said for the President’s reaction to the Charlottesville tragedy at the weekend. Both events (added to all issues since January) suggest that the current White House administration are perhaps losing sight of what it means to run the world’s declining super power.

Leading from struggles in the White House, the combative approaches of President Trump and North Korea ruler Kim Jong Un throughout the year has also helped to provide safe haven support for gold and silver.

These aren’t the only issues that are creating nervousness and uncertainty in the marketplace:

– Vladimir Putin’s geo-political ambitions combined with Russia’s growing closeness with China.

– The deteriorating relationship between Iran and the US, Israel, Saudi Arabia and significant players in the Middle East

– The near impossible problems in the Middle East—including but not limited to ISIS and al Qaeda, Syria, the worsening situation between Israel and Palestine

– Increasing divisions between Turkey and Europe – Turkey having previously been seen as an ally for the West, in the Middle East

– Signs of growing differences between many Western allies, significantly President Trump and European leaders in regard to how to deal with the above.

Will gold break $1,300?

In recent months gold has attempted to break through the $1,300 barrier a few times. This level is being touted as a psychological barrier which, when broken, could see gold perform in a way not seen since its 2011 run when the inflows of speculative money drove prices up $500 in just nine months.

However, it might not be political events that push it past this barrier. Interestingly if one looks at gold’s behaviour in the last seven or eight years, it has not reacted to political tensions (see graph below).

Source: ANZ

Instead, it has been mainly affected by monetary policy, QE, the hunt for yield and shifting inflationary / deflationary concerns. An interesting point to consider as it is, arguably, counterintuitive.

Therefore, we may see gold break through the $1,300 barrier on account of the US Federal Reserve whose last minutes surprised the markets. Whilst they gave no indication as to how the FOMC might move ahead, they did show a lack of consensus between members.

Janet Yellen previously indicated there might be three (or even four) possible interest rate rises for 2017. So far, we have had two of these which have increased U.S. interest rates by 50 basis points.  These latest Fed minutes are perhaps suggesting that the FOMC is unlikely to implement even a third rate rise this year.

This should not be surprising given the lack of recovery in the US economy, inflation not meeting the required 2% and employment levels failing to reach targets.

However, we should not dismiss political tensions and their push for safe haven demand. Central banks may talk and talk but the bottom line is that ultra loose monetary policies are set to continue and remain very supportive.

For many decades we have not seen a geopolitical situation so tense, where it feels so many countries are looking over their shoulders at what could come next both in terms of political and financial threats.

The push over $1,300 could be due to a perfect storm of financial, economic and geopolitical risks, each pushing investors to look for a safe haven and time-proven financial insurance.

Conclusion

Palladium is the best performing precious metal this year. This is not thanks to events which happen today and (sadly) become tomorrow’s news.

Palladium’s stellar performance is thanks to a series of decisions and events which have caused a major supply deficit whilst demand continues to climb.

The same can be said of gold and silver. Investors must not look to one-off events such as a terrorist attacks or an angry Tweet from Trump.

It is when these events are no longer isolated incidents and instead form a much bigger picture about the uncertain state of the world.

This picture is taking shape and is slowly impacting the way people look at their finances. Soon, the picture will be much clearer and will drive safe haven investment demand.

In the meantime, those with clearer foresight would do well to see the climbing numbers in the performance chart and realise now is a good time to take advantage of low prices and insultate and rebalance your portfolio with some safe haven protection in the form of allocated, segregated gold and silver bullion.

Given these many risks, there is no good reason, that gold and silver will not follow palladium’s lead and surge to multi year highs in the coming months.

News and Commentary

Gold Futures Punch Through $1,300 as Global Stocks Extend Losses (Bloomberg.com)

Gold lifted by haven demand; palladium logs 16-year high (MarketWatch.com)

Gold steady, buoyed by geopolitical worries (Reuters.com)

Nikkei slumps to 3-month low as Asian markets dip (MarketWatch.com)

India Bans Gold Exports Above 22 Carats to Plug Trade Loopholes (Bloomberg.com)

Futures Now: Gold shines (CNBC.com)

Markets Roiled on Trump Stance Tensions: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg.com)

High-Profile Sectors Start To Roll Over (DollarCollapse.com)

What can you do about this recurring crisis? (StansBerryChurcHouse.com)

New Currency in Race to Remake One of World’s Oldest Markets (Bloomberg.com)

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

18 Aug: USD 1,295.25, GBP 1,004.34 & EUR 1,102.65 per ounce
17 Aug: USD 1,285.90, GBP 998.12 & EUR 1,096.74 per ounce
16 Aug: USD 1,270.15, GBP 985.13 & EUR 1,082.29 per ounce
15 Aug: USD 1,274.60, GBP 986.92 & EUR 1,084.05 per ounce
14 Aug: USD 1,281.10, GBP 987.34 & EUR 1,085.48 per ounce
11 Aug: USD 1,288.30, GBP 993.67 & EUR 1,096.47 per ounce
10 Aug: USD 1,278.90, GBP 985.39 & EUR 1,091.67 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

18 Aug: USD 17.15, GBP 13.30 & EUR 14.60 per ounce
17 Aug: USD 17.02, GBP 13.23 & EUR 14.55 per ounce
16 Aug: USD 16.68, GBP 12.96 & EUR 14.25 per ounce
15 Aug: USD 16.89, GBP 13.12 & EUR 14.38 per ounce
14 Aug: USD 16.97, GBP 13.09 & EUR 14.39 per ounce
11 Aug: USD 17.09, GBP 13.18 & EUR 14.53 per ounce
10 Aug: USD 17.08, GBP 13.14 & EUR 14.57 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– Must See Charts – Gold Hedges USD Devaluation, Rise in Oil, Food and Cost of Living Since Nixon Ended Gold Standard
– World’s Largest Hedge Fund Bridgewater Buys $68 Million of Gold ETF In Q2
– Diversify Into Gold Urges Dalio on Linkedin – “Militaristic Leaders Playing Chicken Risks Hellacious War”
– Gold Has Yet Another Purpose – Help Fight Cancer
– Gold Up 2%, Silver 5% In Week – Gundlach, Gartman and Dalio Positive On Gold
– Great Disaster Looms as Technology Disrupts White Collar Workers
– Gold Sees Safe Haven Gains On Trump “Fire and Fury” Threat
– Silver Mining Production Plummets 27% At Top Four Silver Miners
– Gold Consolidates On 2.5% Gain In July After Dollar Has 5th Monthly Decline
– Gold Coins and Bars See Demand Rise of 11% in H2, 2017
– Greenspan Warns Stagflation Like 1970s “Not Good For Asset Prices”
– What Investors Can Learn From the Japanese Art of Kintsukuroi
– Bitcoin, ICO Risk Versus Immutable Gold and Silver

 END
Mike Kosares on why we need gold and silver ownership
(courtesy Mike Kosares/GATA)

Mike Kosares: Historical inevitability and gold and silver ownership

 Section: 

3:45p ET Thursday, August 17, 2017

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

USAGold’s Mike Kosares argues today that there are broad cycles in history and economic matters and that owners of the monetary metals can take some comfort in the hedging they provide against what most needs to be hedged: the times. Kosares’ commentary is headlined “Historical Inevitability and Gold and Silver Ownership” and it’s posted at USAGold here:

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/2017/08/17/historical-inevitability-and-…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END
Anglogold Ashanti is not too happy with its South African gold assets. It now has revived plans to spin these off
(courtesy Reuters)

angloGold Ashanti revives plans to spin off S. African mines, sources tell Reuters

 Section: 

By Zandi Shabalala and Clara Denina
Reuters
Friday, August 18, 2017

AngloGold Ashanti is considering separating its South African assets from the rest of its portfolio, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters, three years after shareholders revolted against a similar effort.

Africa’s top bullion producer has hired Deutsche Bank to evaluate options but discussions are at an early stage, one of the sources said.

AngloGold and Deutsche Bank declined to comment.

The miner is looking at listing its international assets, which include gold mines in Western Australia and Brazil, in London, while the South African assets, some of which will be sold as part of the plan, will remain in the existing Johannesburg listing, the sources added. …

… For the remainder of the report:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-anglogold-ashnti-m-a-idUSKCN1AY0ZC

END
Gold trading:  the bankers’ defense of 1300.00 dollar gold/USA/Yen tumbles!!

Gold Spikes Above $1300 As USDJPY Tumbles

For the first time since early June, Gold has just broken back above $1300, continuing to mirror the ebbs and flows of USDJPY (which just snapped below 109.00).

Is 3rd time the charm?

 

Gold is now outperforming The Dow year-to-date..

end


Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight

 
 

1 Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/yuan STRONGER 6.6722 (REVALUATION NORTHBOUND   /OFFSHORE YUAN MOVES WEAKER TO ONSHORE AT   6.6807/ Shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 0.29 POINTS OR 0.01%  / HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 296.65 POINTS OR 1.08% 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 232.22 POINTS OR 1.18%    /USA: YEN FALLS TO 109.02

3. Europe stocks OPENED DEEPLY IN THE RED     ( /USA dollar index FALLS TO  93.49/Euro UP to 1.1749

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS  TO  +.0330%/ GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION    !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 114.34/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD FINALLY IN THE POSITIVE/BANK OF JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR YIELD CURVE AS THEY PURCHASE ALL BONDS TO GET TO ZERO RATE!!

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI::  47.18 and Brent: 51.02

3f Gold UP/Yen UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS  AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP  for Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO  +.412%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN  to 2.027%    

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES to  : 5.625???  

3k Gold at $1295.05  silver at:17.19 (8:15 am est)   SILVER BELOW  RESISTANCE AT $18.50 

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 21/100 in  roubles/dollar) 59.43-

3m oil into the 47 dollar handle for WTI and 51 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation  (already upon us). This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/China forced to do QE!! as it lowers its yuan value to the dollar/GOT A GOOD SIZED REVALUATION NORTHBOUND 

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.02 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning  0.9609 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1291 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017 

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to  +0.421%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”.  Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.1887% early this morning. Thirty year rate  at 2.7754% /POLICY ERROR)GETTING DANGEROUSLY HIGH

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)

“From Nukes To Terrorism”: Battered Investors Flee Risk For Safety Of Bonds And Gold

The global risk-off mood accelerated overnight on Trump “stability concerns”, coupled with fallout from the Spain terrorist attack and lingering North Korea tensions, even if the VIX is off its latest highs, trading just above 15. Investors fled into German and U.S. Treasury bonds and bought gold for the third day in a row, as the appeal of such top-notch assets grew further due to a deadly attack that killed at least 13 people in Barcelona.

“In a week where we started by worrying about nuclear war, markets have quickly moved on from this, with yesterday’s weak session more of a response to fears that Mr Trump’s strategy for the economy and business is falling apart and later the terrible terrorist attack in Barcelona,” is how DB’s Jim Reid summarized the week’s psychedelic events.

Concerns that Trump’s stimulus is in peril spiked following speculation that his top economic advisor, former Goldman COO Gary Cohn, was set to resign roiled markets on Thursday until reports that he’d opted to stay on board steadied the ship, however heightened terror fears added to the risk off sentiment after at least 13 people died when a van plowed into pedestrians in Barcelona. The terror attack was a reminder of lingering geopolitical risks, with nerves still raw after last week’s escalation of tensions on the Korean peninsula.

USD/JPY dropped below 109.00 and EUR/JPY 128.00; EUR/USD and GBP/USD both run upside stops as USD weakens across the board. Core fixed income markets rally, curves bull flatten with 10Y bund yield falling below 40bps. Spot gold hits YTD high just below $1300/oz, while a strong close for Dalian iron ore futures once again lifts China industrial metals.

ING Bank analysts predicted the dollar would remain pinned near current levels, at the expense of the yen. “Tail risks such as geopolitics, protectionism and the unwind of easy central bank money all provide valid reasons to remain cautious in chasing risk,” they told clients. “Dollar/yen continues to capture this nervousness and could move down towards the 109.00 level.”

European stocks tumbled, with Spanish shares leading losses, as two Spanish terrorist incidents added to investor worries about U.S. policy chaos under the Trump administration.  The Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped 1% percent, reducing the weekly rebound to just 0.3%. In the US, S&P futures were largely flat while Asian dropped with the dollar on rising US political turmoil. Gold, yen and oil gained despite another weekly increase in US shale production. Credit spreads widen, iTraxx Crossover touches widest level seen during North Korea troubles.

Travel and hospitality shares led the 1% drop in the Stoxx Europe 600 along with banks, while industries across the board were caught in the downturn. Spain’s IBEX index dropped more than 1 percent. Equities fell from Tokyo to Sydney earlier after the S&P 500 Index on Thursday tumbled 1.5 percent, its second-biggest drop for 2017. The VIX soared higher for the second time in one week, while core bonds across the euro region advanced.

In Asia, Japan’s Topix fell 1.1% at the close, down 1.2% over the week, while Australia’s S&P/500 Index ended 0.6% lower. The seemingly impervious to anything, including nuclear war Kospi index ended barely changed 0.1 percent lower. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 0.6%.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.5 percent, paring gains for the week.

“The terror attacks in the U.S. and Spain just add to all the other geopolitical mess,” Simon Quijano-Evans, a strategist at London-based Legal & General Investment Management Ltd., said in a note to clients. “At some stage that is likely to culminate into a more extreme market reaction.”

In rates, yields have fallen in recent days following the ECB comments and amid the dash for defensive assets, with 10-year Bunds at a one-week low of 0.41 percent while 10-year Treasuries traded just off one-week lows hit on Thursday; 10Y Gilts fell one basis point to 1.075%. The turmoil also benefited gold, with spot prices for the metal rising 0.4 percent to the highest in more than two months and on track for its second week of gains.

Brent crude futures rose 0.35 percent, rising off three-week lows hit on Thursday as the dollar continued to weaken and signs appeared that supply is becoming tighter in the world’s biggest energy consumer, the United States.

Today’s data include August Michigan consumer sentiment. Deere, Estee Lauder, Foot Locker and Ascendis Pharma are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.01% to 2,427.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.9% to 373.47
  • MXAP down 0.5% to 159.06
  • MXAPJ down 0.6% to 522.83
  • Nikkei down 1.2% to 19,470.41
  • Topix down 1.1% to 1,597.36
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.1% to 27,047.57
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.01% to 3,268.72
  • Sensex down 1.1% to 31,438.75
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.6% to 5,747.11
  • Kospi down 0.1% to 2,358.37
  • Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,293.58
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.07% to 93.55
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.9 bps to 0.407%
  • Euro up 0.1% to $1.1738
  • Brent Futures up 0.3% to $51.17/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 1.8 bps to 1.737%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 10.4 bps to 1.543%

Top Overnight News

  • European Union officials accepted the U.K.’s request to delay the start of the next round of Brexit talks to enable British officials to have time off on Britain’s Aug. 28 “summer bank holiday,” according to two people familiar with the plans
  • Yellen speech at Jackson Hole confirmed for Friday, Aug. 25 at 10 a.m. New York time, topic will be financial stability; Draghi speech same day at 3 p.m. New York time
  • Trump: advisory council for infrastructure will not move forward, according to a White House spokesperson
  • China govt. to further limit outbound investments in foreign property, hotels, sports and gambling
  • Barcelona: five suspected terrorists killed by police; Islamic State claims responsibility
  • Five suspected terrorists killed by police following Barcelona attack
  • China home prices rise in 56 cities vs 60 prev as property market cools
  • Energy Capital Is Said to Plan $5.5 Billion Calpine Takeover
  • Ping An Undervalued Even After 50%-Plus Gain, President Says
  • Gap’s Old Navy Chain Keeps Retailer’s Turnaround Hopes Alive
  • Roche, Sanofi May Move on House Democrats MS Drug Price Probe
  • Guangzhou Auto Says No Plans to Buy Fiat Chrysler: Reuters
  • Fed’s Kashkari repeats there’s no rush to raise rates;
  • Kaplan urges
    patience, would like ’more progress on inflation’ before next hike
  • JPMorgan Hires Chen From Deutsche Bank For Senior China Role
  • James Murdoch to Donate $1m to Anti-Defamation League: Yahoo
  • July U.S. Total Video Game Sales Up 19% to $588m: NPD
  • Gap CEO Says Gap Brand ‘Stable and Steady,’ Not Yet Satisfying
  • Bunge Expands Soy Crush in Brazil, Cites Long-Term Positive View
  • Holidays on Hold as Bond Market Defies Usual August Slowdown
  • Quants Deliver Swift 10% Gain on Iron Ore From New BNP Model
  • Five Suspected Terrorists Killed After Twin Attacks on Spain
  • Elliott Is Said to Signal Backing for $6.3 Billion Stada Buyout
  • Merkel Jeered by Immigration Foes in Biggest Campaign Unrest Yet
  • Applied Materials Machines in Demand as Data Use Explodes
  • ROST Boosts FY EPS View, Midpoint Beats Est.; Shares Rise 8.4%

Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk

  • European equities enter the North America crossover amid yesterday’s terror incident and further turmoil in Washington
  • JPY has been the main beneficiary in FX markets with macro newsflow otherwise relatively light
  • Looking ahead, highlights include: Canadian CPI, Uni. Of Michigan and Kaplan

In Asian trading, all major Asia-Pac indices traded in negative territory as the risk averse tone triggered by terror incidents in Spain and resignation rumours related to Trump’s chief economic advisor Cohn, rolled over to the region. ASX 200 (-0.56%) dampened from the open with the largest weighted financials sector leading the declines as all big 4 banks traded with firm losses, while Nikkei 225 (-1.18%) exporters felt the brunt of the safe-haven flows into FY.  Hang Seng (-1.08%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.01%) also mirrored the global risk averse tone, although downside was stemmed in the mainland after the PBoC switched to net weekly injection in its operations vs. last week’s drain and as participants mulled over the latest property price data which suggested the effectiveness of curbs to cool the over rampant sector. 10yr JGBs were marginally higher with mild support seen amid the negative backdrop in global equities, while the BoJ were also in the market for JPY 1.05fin of JGBs with maturities of up to 10yrs.

Top Asian News

  • Malaysia GDP Growth Beats Forecasts as Economy Expands 5.8%
  • After Alibaba Bonanza, Manager Said to Plan New Asia Hedge Fund
  • Company Founders Find Fighting Back Has a Cost in India
  • Japan Stocks to Watch: JT, Kyoei Steel, NGK Insulators, Tosoh
  • Iron Ore in China Ends Week With Bang as Demand Seen Holding Up
  • Ping An’s Tech Push Undervalued by Investors, Ren Says: Q&A
  • Conflict With Infosys’ Founders Prompts CEO Sikka to Quit
  • U.S. Equities See Further Outflows, Europe Sees Inflows: BofAML
  • Falling House Prices in Shenzhen Don’t Bode Well for Steel
  • Kingsgate Surges as Thailand Lifts Gold Mine’s Suspension

Across European markets sentiment has soured with the Eurostoxx falling over 1%, sector wise the losses are broad based with travel stocks among the worst performers following yesterday’s terror attacks in Barcelona. Financials also taking a hit this morning after reports that banks are being sued by the FDIC over the Libor-rigging scandal. Flight to quality flow keeping EGBs afloat, the German curve is slightly bull flattening while the 10Y yield is approaching 0.4%. Peripheral debt spreads wider with the Italian 10Y yield edging higher.

Top European News

  • Commerzbank Early Retirement Offers Accepted by Almost 40%
  • City of London Only Sign of Brexit Weakness, Kingspan CEO Says
  • Straumann Stopped Share Sale as Investors Wanted Bigger Discount
  • Sistema Requests Break in Hearing After New Documents Submitted
  • Czechs Move to Strip Election Favorite of Immunity Before Vote

In currenices, JPY firmer across the board amid the fall seen across equity markets and as such USD/JPY is eying 109.00 to the downside, while support in the short term is situated at 108.70-80. USD softer against its major counterparts, EUR and GBP higher by 0.25% with the later making a move to breach 1.29. However, the backdrop of Brexit continues to weigh on GBP/USD and curb the upside. CAD: Today will see the release of the Canadian CPI figures where expectations are for a slight pick-up in inflation. Although, a miss on this could see USD/CAD make a push through 1.27.

In commodities, safe-haven commodities supported with gold prices moving to intra-day highs. Elsewhere, the softer USD also sees crude prices ticking up as Brent crude breaches USD 51. Another day of gains for base metals, Zinc rising near 2%.

Looking at the day ahead, in the US, the University of Michigan sentiment index (94 expected) will be released. Further, the Fed’s Kaplan will speak again today.

US Event Calendar

  • 10am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 94, prior 93.4; U. of Mich. Current Conditions, est. 112.9, prior 113.4; U. of Mich. Expectations, est. 81.5, prior 80.5
    • U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation, prior 2.6%; U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation, prior 2.6%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

In a week where we started by worrying about nuclear war, markets have quickly moved on from this with yesterday’s weak session more of a response to fears that Mr Trump’s strategy for the economy and business is falling apart and later the terrible terrorist attack in Barcelona.

The S&P 500 (-1.54%) fell sharply for its 2nd worst day of the year with the VIX surging 32.5% to 15.55, the fifth highest close of the year. We’ve now gone through last week’s ‘fire and fury’ lows. The hits kept coming yesterday with speculation that Trump’s key economic advisor Gary Cohn was about to resign sending an early US session shock to markets. He is seen as the glue holding Trump’s pro-business agenda together. The fears are that if he goes you take a further step back from tax cuts and deregulation. Notably the VIX moved from just over 12 to nearly 13.74 in 25mins as the news swept through the markets. The story was denied and markets calmed a little but sold off sharply into the close as the shocking news broke from Barcelona that terrorists killed 13 people as a vehicle rammed into pedestrians.

This morning in Asia, markets are following the negative leads from the US and are lower. The Nikkei (-1.33%), Hang Seng (-0.71%) and Chinese bourses (c.-0.2%) are all down. Elsewhere, the annual military drills between US and South Korean troops starting Monday seem to be having little impact on the markets, with the Kospi down 0.20%.

Now onto the ECB minutes. They noted that “concerns were expressed about the risk of the (Euro) overshooting in the future” and that policy makers discussed making “incremental” changes to their forward guidance. Later on, Draghi told reporters that the incoming data confirmed the strength of the Eurozone economy, but on inflation “we need to be persistent and patient, because we’re not there yet…” and “a very substantial degree of monetary accommodation is still needed for underlying inflation pressure to gradually build up”. Members have retained their pledge to the asset purchase program and Draghi noted later that “the last thing that the council may want is an unwanted tightening of the financing conditions”.

Given the focus on the Euro and Draghi, DB’s Mark Wall has just published a report highlighting the spectrum of Draghi’s comments on the exchange rate since becoming the President of the ECB. Draghi will speak at the Jackson Hole meeting but is not now expected to set expectations for the timing of a decision on QE. That said, Mark argues that Draghi’s view on the macro should be no more cautious than he was back at the July ECB council meeting.  Across the pond, the Fed has confirmed that Yellen will speak on the topic of financial stability at next week’s Jackson Hole symposium.

Back to the market’s performance yesterday. US equities have all weakened, with the S&P (-1.54%), the Dow (-1.24%) and the Nasdaq (-1.94% and marking the third largest daily decline in 2017). Within the S&P, all sectors were in the red, with the financials hit harder (BAC -2.27%; WFC -1.69%), in part as nervousness around Cohn hit the sector as he is expected to help deliver tax cuts, an easing in bank regulations and drive bond yields higher. European markets were also down, the Stoxx 600 fell -0.6%, with all sectors excluding utilities in the red. Similarly, financials were also more impacted, with large banks down -1.5% to -2.5%. Across the region, the DAX (-0.49%), FTSE 100 (-0.61%), CAC (-0.58%) and the Italian FTSE MIB (-0.89%) all fell.

Bond yields also fell in both US and Europe, with the UST10y down 4bps and core European yields down 2bps. Across the region, the decline in bond yields were fairly uniform at the long end of the curve, with bunds (2Y: +1bp; 10Y: -2bps), Gilts (2Y: -1bp; 10Y: -2bps) and OATs (2Y: +1bp; 10Y: -2bps) all lower i yield even if at the 2y part of the curve, changes were a bit more mixed, but little changed. This morning, UST10y has reversed a little, with yields back up 1.6bps.

Turning to currencies, earlier in the day the USD had strengthened against the euro, with EUR/USD down as much as -1%, but the aforementioned developments in the US saw the dollar retreat and allow the Euro to close down -0.4% for the day. Elsewhere, Euro/Sterling and Sterling/USD both dipped 0.2%, while the US dollar index finished +0.1% higher for the day. In commodities, WTI pared back from three consecutive days of losses to be up +0.7% yesterday. Precious metals were little changed (Gold +0.4%; Silver -0.5%), while industrial metals increased on the back of traders speculation of tighter supply (Copper +2.3%, Zinc +4.6%, Aluminium +2.5%), although some of the gains were offset this morning.

Away from the markets and the Gary Cohn story, tension continues to grow in US politics and may add to doubts on Trump’s pro-growth reforms. Republican senator Corker has told reporters that “..the president needs to….move away beyond himself…move to a place where daily he’s waking up thinking about what is best for the nation.” Further, another Republican senator Scott said “what we want to see from our president is clarity and moral authority.” Elsewhere, Trump was also busy himself, twitting “publicity seeking (Republican senator) Graham falsely stated that I said….such a disgusting lie.” and that Republican senator Flake is “toxic” and a “non-factor in the senate”.

Elsewhere, the German Constitutional Court has raised concerns that ECB’s public sector purchase program (PSPP) might violate the prohibition of monetary financing in EU law. The highest German court has referred the complaint to the European Court of Justice (ECJ) for “preliminary ruling”. DB’s Boettcher does not expect an ECJ decision on the motion before Q1 2018. This could push a final verdict by the GCC into late 2018, thus into a period when we expect the ECB to have progressed on winding down QE.

Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, data was mixed but broadly in line. The July industrial production was a tad lower at 0.2% mom (vs. 0.3% expected), whilst manufacturing output fell 0.1% mom (vs. 0.2% expected), with the 3.6% mom decline in auto production (the third consecutive monthly decline) being the biggest weight in the month. Elsewhere, the Philadelphia Fed business index was higher than expected at 18.9 (vs. 18) and the July conference board leading index was in line at 0.3%. Employment indicators remain solid, with initial jobless claims at 232k (vs. 240k) and continuing claims at 1.953m (vs. 1.955m). Across the pond, UK’s July retail sales was higher than expectations at 0.5% mom for exauto (vs. 0.1% expected) and 1.5% yoy (vs. 1.2%). Elsewhere, the Eurozone’s July inflation was in line at -0.5% mom, while the final inflation reading was unchanged at 1.2% yoy (core inflation). The French unemployment rate edged down to 9.2% in 2Q, meeting market expectations.

Looking at the day ahead, the German PPI’s will be out as this note is published, then the Eurozone’s June current account stats and construction output data are due. In the US, the University of Michigan sentiment index (94 expected) will be released. Further, the Fed’s Kaplan will speak again today.

 END

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late THURSDAY night/FRIDAY morning: Shanghai closed UP 0.29 POINTS OR 0.01%   / /Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 296.65 POINTS OR 1.08% The Nikkei closed DOWN 232.22 POINTS OR 1.18%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.49%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.6722/Oil UP to 47.18 dollars per barrel for WTI and 51.02 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED DEEPLY IN THE GREEN , Offshore yuan trades  6.6807 yuan to the dollar vs 6.6722 for onshore yuan. NOW THE OFFSHORE IS WEAKER  TO THE ONSHORE YUAN/ ONSHORE YUAN STRONGER (TO THE DOLLAR)  AND THE OFFSHORE YUAN IS STRONG TO THE DOLLAR AND THIS IS COUPLED WITH THE WEAKER DOLLAR. CHINA IS HAPPY TODAY 

3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA/USA

South Korea and the USA are scheduled to have a massive war games on the peninsula.  Kim is already angry and predicts a “catastrophe”. Not only is North Korea angry but so is China who is suppose to rein in this unpredictable buffoon.

(courtesy zero hedge)

“Armageddon Risk” Returns: North Korea Predicts “Catastrophe” As Massive U.S. War Games Begin Monday

Traders barely had time to enjoy the lull from the “Armageddon trade” – the rising possibility of a nuclear exchange between the US and North Korea, which peaked over the weekend when various US officials said a nuclear war is not imminent, echoed by a statement by N. Korea’s state-run news agency KCNA, before a new set of worries promptly took over, chief among them the ongoing slow motion train wreck in Donald Trump’s administration coupled with yesterday’s double terrorist attacks in Spain. Alas, “nuclear war” risk is about to come back with a vengeance because on Monday US and South Korea are scheduled to begin joint military exercises, a massive show of force which every time in the past has infuriated North Korea, sometimes triggering a show of force.

Held every fall in South Korea, the Ulchi-Freedom Guardian war games are the world’s largest computerized command and control exercise. Some 30,000 U.S. soldiers and more than 50,000 South Korean troops usually take part, along with hundreds of thousands of first responders and civilians, some practicing for a potential chemical weapons attack.

Scheduled long before the recent diplomatic fallout between Washington and Pyongyang, the U.S. and South Korean militaries will simulate warfare with North Korea from Aug. 21 to 31, well aware that North Korea could respond with another missile test, according to McClatchy.

In light of this perceived provocation by North Korea, which will almost certainly prompt some reaction, Scott A. Snyder, a Korea specialist with the Council on Foreign Relations said Over the course of the next two weeks I expect tensions to escalate. This is always a sensitive issue, but it is more hair-trigger as the North Koreans are very sensitive to the likely additional nuclear-capable aircraft flyovers.”

While the Pentagon has repeatedly stated that the biannual exercises are “defensive” in nature, both North Korea and China have long criticized them as a provocation and an affront to regional security. “There certainly will be some reaction,” said J.D. Williams, a retired Marine colonel and defense policy researcher at the RAND Corporation in California. He said he wouldn’t be surprised if North Korea conducted some kind of missile launch — not a test but a defiant demonstration of might.

As discussed earlier in the week, North Korea’s Kim backed off a threat to launch missiles at Guam, saying he’d watch “the foolish and stupid conduct of the Yankees” before deciding on the launch, a decision that Trump quickly tweeted was “very wise and well reasoned.” While the exchange suggested that cooler heads were prevailing in the latest U.S. standoff with North Korea. But next week’s war games could rekindle hostilities. On Thursday, North Korean state media declared that the military exercises will “further drive the situation on the Korean Peninsula into a catastrophe.”

It’s not just North Korea: Beijing will likely be rather unhappy too.

The exercise, along with one in March, often triggers anti-war protests in South Korea and condemnation from China. While Chinese President Xi Jinping has been noticeably cool toward Kim Jong Un, and has been critical of North Korea’s development of nuclear weapons, China has long wanted the United States to shrink its military footprint in Asia, including some 12 bases in South Korea and Japan.

 

In an editorial Monday, China’s Global Times newspaper, an arm of the Communist Party’s People’s Daily, lambasted the decision by the United States and South Korea to go ahead with Monday’s exercises.

 

“The drill will definitely provoke Pyongyang more, and Pyongyang is expected to make a more radical response,” the newspaper said. “If South Korea really wants no war on the Korean Peninsula, it should try to stop this military exercise.”

In other words, China – which is largely expected to rein in North Korea – is already hedging in case North Korea does something impulsive, suggesting the exercise itself could be the provocation that sets Kim off. And set him off, it will: in the past North Korea has reacted strongly during the biannual war games. In 2014, the north fired off scud missiles during the March exercises held by the U.S.-South Korean command, called Foul Eagle.

During the 2015 Ulchi-Freedom Guardian exercises, North Korea and South Korea exchanged artillery and rocket fire over their border. That exchange came after two South Korean soldiers were maimed stepping on land mines in the Demilitarized Zone. South Korea accused North Korean soldiers of sneaking across the border and planting the land mines.

Last week, China and Russia urged the United States to consider a “freeze for freeze” agreement to reduce tensions. In such a deal, Pyongyang would agree to suspend its tests of missiles and nuclear weapons, and Washington and Seoul would agree to suspend large-scale military exercises. That, however, is not happening: U.S. military experts say such a deal would give a lopsided advantage to North Korea, which could continue its military training even as the U.S.-South Korea exercises were suspended. “It is hard to imagine why the United States would accept that, because of the vulnerability it would create,” said Bruce Bennett, a senior defense researcher at RAND.

In a media briefing on Tuesday, U.S. State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said the United States will continue to hold joint exercises with South Korea. And since North Korea will immediate see this “provocation” as a green light for a response, the respite that traders got from the “Armageddon trade” that sent the VIX soaring by one of its biggest and fastest intraday moves in history, may prove very short-lived. Perhaps the only silver lining is that the exercises don’t begin until Monday, so traders don’t have to do anything too crazy ahead of the weekend.

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

end

c) REPORT ON CHINA

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 There were two or three separate terror events in Spain yesterday.
The following highlights the second plot in the town of Cambrils where the police killed 5 terrorists
(courtesy zerohedge)

Caught On Tape: Spanish Police Kill Five Terrorist In Separate Terror Plot

Update 2: The explosive belts worn by attackers killed by police in the Catalan resort town of Cambrils were fake, the Spanish region’s head Carles Puigdemont told local radio station RAC1 on Friday. A suspected Islamist militant drove a van into crowds in Barcelona, killing 13 people on Thursday, and police also said they had killed five attackers later that evening in Cambrils to thwart a separate attack using explosive belts. Puigdemont said bomb experts had now confirmed the explosive belts were duds.

* * *

Update: The police force for Spain’s Catalonia region says its troopers shot and killed four suspects and wounded a fifth in a resort town south of Barcelona to “respond to a terrorist attack.” The regional police said in a tweet that they are investigating whether the Cambrils suspects were wearing explosive vests. Its officers planned to carry out several controlled explosions. The force says it is working on the theory that the Cambrils suspects were linked to the Barcelona attack, as well as to a Wednesday night explosion in the town of Alcanar in which one person was killed.

Subsequently, the police said the fifth suspect shot in the resort town of Cambrils has died and six civilians have been injured. Police earlier Friday morning had said four suspects had been killed in the town south of Barcelona during a police operation to “respond to a terrorist attack.”

* * *

Spanish police have shot and killed four people while carrying out an operation in response to what was reportedly another terrorist attack in a town south of Barcelon .

The regional police for the Catalonia region said on Twitter early on Friday that officers are in Cambrils, a seaside resort town about 100 kilometers (62 miles) from Barcelona, where they are dealing with a “possible terror attack.”

L’operatiu policial a  provoca retencions a vies properes a a  
DEMANEM PACIÈNCIA DAVANT SITUACIÓ EXCEPCIONAL

 

Videos capturing the shooting and the immediate aftermath were distributed on twitter:

The military operation was announced around midnight local time, when the Catalonia emergency service tweeted: “IF YOU’RE NOW IN £Cambrils avoid going out. Stay home, stay safe. Police operation ongoing.”

The service urged people in the town not to go out on the streets.

IF YOU’RE NOW IN  avoid going out. Stay home, stay safe. Police operation ongoing

As AP reports citing Spain’s RTVE, regional police troopers killed four people and injured another seven. The broadcaster added that the police suspected they were planning an attack in Cambrils just hours after a van swerved onto a pedestrian promenade in Barcelona, killing 13.

It also adds that according to police sources“the terrorists carried explosives attached to the body.” The broadcaster said the suspects tried to carry out a similar attack to the one in Barcelona.

Which begs the question: has Spain become the focal point of another suicide bombing terrorist cell?

Developing.

The Barcelona terrorists were planning a much bigger devastating attack but the building in which the plot was hatched blew up taking with them most of the explosives.
(courtesy zero hedge)

Barcelona Terrorists Planned A “Devastating Attack” With Explosives

When we described the second terrorist attack to take place in Spain, around midnight local time in the resort town of Cambrils, in which local police killed 5 people who had run over civilians and in which the terrorists were said to have carried “explosives attached to the body”, we asked “has Spain become the focal point of another suicide bombing terrorist cell?”

Moments ago we got what appears to be an affirmative answer, when the police chief heading the investigation said on Friday that the terrorists behind the Barcelona attack had planned a devastating assault with explosives and may have rammed pedestrians with vehicles after their initial plan failed. According to Catalan police chief Josep Lluis Trapero, who spoke to reporters moments ago, the large explosion in the early hours of Thursday which brought down a building in Alcanar – where police think a group of terrorists had been plotting an attack for some time – deprived the terrorists of bomb-making material. This forced them to carry out the twin attacks on Barcelona and Cambrils “in a more rudimentary way.”

“The explosion in Alcanar stopped larger attacks from happening because they no longer had some of the material they needed,” Trapero said.

He also said that “It was a group, we do not know the specific number, but we do not rule out that they had other attacks in mind.” and added that there was a “clear link” between the Alcanar explosion and the attacks in Barcelona and Cambrils.

Curiously, Trapero also confirmed that the Cambrils attackers were wearing fake suicide belts. “they were carrying belts which looked like suicide vests, but in the end they turned out to be fake. They were trying to simulate explosives,” he said. He said the investigation is focused on those in the building in Alcanar and the vehicles in Barcelona and Cambrils.

“We think they [the suspects in Alcanar] were preparing at least one or more attacks in Barcelona. The explosion took out some of the material they were counting on to carrying out even bigger attacks, than the ones that happened.”

The Catalan police chief also revealed that a single police officer killed four of the suspects who carried out the attack in the Catalan seaside town of Cambrils. A total of five suspects were killed after the Cambrils attack in which a car plowed into a crowd, killing a woman.

More importantly, Trapero confirmed that the driver of the Barcelona van has still not been identified. He said that one of the five suspects killed in Cambrils could have been the driver in Barcelona. He added: “We’re working on the hypothesis that the authors [of the attacks] had been planning them both for a while in the building in Alcanar, but we can’t join up all the scenarios. It was a group – we don’t have a concrete number – but we’re not discounting the idea that they were planning other attacks.

Trapero said there would be more news in a few hours.

Source: Guardian

END

 

GERMANY/FINLAND

Two knife attacks today: one in Germany and the other in Finland

 

(courtesy zero hedge)

One Person Killed In Stabbing Attack In Germany, Manhunt Underway

One person was killed and one person was injured in a stabbing attack in the German city of Wuppertal-Elberfeld today, according to police. As ABC reports, a manhunt has been launced by the Wuppertal police who are searching for one or more suspects in the stabbings. The person who was killed in the attack was reportedly a 31-year-old man. The injured person is 25 years old.

“There has been a homicide in Elbelfeld [part of Wuppertal]. One man is dead, one injured. Perpetrators are on the run,” police said in a statement. No information has been released about the possible motive of the attack.

: Großeinsatz nach Messerstecherei in der Nähe der City-Arkaden. Polizei: Täter hat sich vermutlich in einem Gebäude verschanzt.

According to the Westdeutsche Zeitung, the attack took place at a hair salon, and Der Westen adds that the police are not sure whether there were several perpetrators or just one. Police are conducting searches in nearby buildings, according to a special forces commander cited by Express.

This marks the second reported stabbing attack in Europe today, as two people died and eight were stabbed in an attack in the Finnish city of Turku on Friday, police said. Police said that there was just a single suspect in the stabbing case at the moment, adding that it was unclear if the Turku incident was related to terrorism.

The witness added that another elderly woman was injured on the other side of the square where the incident reportedly took place. Multiple ambulances are at the scene, according to the newspaper. The outlet also reported that a body has been covered at a junction, and that police and rescue personnel are at the scene.

According to police, security will be reinforced nationwide after the stabbing, with additional patrols deployed and surveillance boosted across Finland.

The police is searching for possible more perpetrators in Turku. People are asked to leave and avoid the center of Turku.

The two knife attacka come just one day after a van plowed into pedestrians on a popular tourist street in Barcelona, killing 13 people and injuring more than 100 others. Hours later, terrorists launched a second attack in the seaside town of Cambrils, injuring seven people, one of whom later died. Police killed five people believed to be behind the attack.

Stabbing attacks have taken place across Europe in recent months. In late July, a knife-wielding man shouting “Allahu Akbar”attacked police on the Spanish-Moroccan border, injuring an officer. The suspect was immediately arrested.

 

5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

 

7. OIL ISSUES

Oil rises of a bigger than expected rig count drop

(courtesy zerohedge)

Rig Count Drops Most In 7 Months As ‘Traders’ Panic-Buy Crude Futures

The US oil rig count dropped 5 to 763 last week, the biggest drop in 7 months. However, crude production from the Lower 48 has surged (rising the most since June last week) to the highest since July 2015. Even with today’s sheer farce panic-buying squeze higher in WTI crude, oil looks set for its 3rd weekly close lower as BNP notes the“whole supply surplus story is not likely to go away anytime soon.”

  • *U.S. OIL RIG COUNT DOWN 5 TO 763 , BAKER HUGHES SAYS :BHGE US
  • *U.S. GAS RIG COUNT UP 1 TO 182 , BAKER HUGHES SAYS :BHGE US

As we have noted previously, this inflection point in the rig count fits with the rolover in crude prices…

 

While the rig count growth has stabilized, crude production continues to rise in the Lower 48 (though had dropped in Alaska for 3 straight weeks) but both saw a rise this week (total production up 79k) as Lower 48 production hit its highest since July 2015…

Bloomberg notes that U.S. oil production from major shale plays is set to hit another record at 6.15 million barrels a day next month,according to the EIA. It’s not just the Permian that’s growing, as the agency sees higher output across the board.

WTI Crude remains lower on the week despite the panic-buying… with no catalyst at all except bannon momentum ignition in USDJPY.

Soime chatter on the crude curve – “Flat price is finally catching up with some of the signs we’ve seen that the physical market is tightening,” Clayton Rogers, an energy derivative broker at SCS Commodities, says.

8. EMERGING MARKET

VENEZUELA

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 am

Euro/USA   1.1749 UP .0033/REACTING TO  + huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:/TRUMP HEALTH CARE DEFEAT//ITALIAN REFERENDUM DEFEAT/AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/ /USA FALLING INTEREST RATES AGAIN/EUROPE BOURSES ALL IN THE RED 

USA/JAPAN YEN 109.02 DOWN 0.310(Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/SIGNALS U TURN WITH INCREASED NEGATIVITY IN NIRP/JAPAN OUT OF WEAPONS TO FIGHT ECONOMIC DISASTER/   HELICOPTER MONEY  ON THE TABLE AND DECISION ON SEPT 21 DISAPPOINTS WITH STIMULUS/OPERATION REVERSE TWIST/LABOUR PARTY LOSES IN LOCAL ELECTIONS

GBP/USA 1.2886 UP .0023 (Brexit  March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED

THERESA MAY FORMS A NEW GOVERNMENT/STARTS BREXIT TALKS

USA/CAN 1.2649 DOWN .0037 (CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA)

Early THIS FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 33 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level  RISING to 1.1749; Europe is still reacting to Gr Britain HARD BREXIT,deflation, announcements of massive stimulation (QE), a proxy middle east war, and the ramifications of a default at the Austrian Hypo bank, an imminent default of Greece, Glencore, Nysmark and the Ukraine, along with rising peripheral bond yield further stimulation as the EU is moving more into NIRP, and now the Italian referendum defeat AND NOW THE ECB TAPERING OF ITS PURCHASES/ THE USA’S NON tightening by FAILING TO RAISE THEIR INTEREST RATE AND NOW THE HUGE PROBLEMS FACING TOO BIG TO FAIL DEUTSCHE BANK + THE ELECTION OF TRUMP IN THE USA+ TRUMP HEALTH CARE BILL DEFEAT AND MONTE DEI PASCHI NATIONALIZATION / Last night the Shanghai composite CLOSED  UP 0.29 POINTS OR 0.01%     / Hang Sang  CLOSED DOWN 296.65 POINTS OR 1.08% /AUSTRALIA  CLOSED DOWN 0.49% / EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED  DEEPLY IN THE RED 

We are seeing that the 3 major global carry trades are being unwound. The BIGGY is the first one;

1. the total dollar global short is 9 trillion USA and as such we are now witnessing a sea of red blood on the streets as derivatives blow up with the massive rise in the rise in the dollar against all paper currencies and especially with the fall of the yuan carry trade. The emerging market which house close to 50% of the 9 trillion dollar short is feeling the massive pain as their debt is quite unmanageable.

2, the Nikkei average vs gold carry trade ( NIKKEI blowing up and the yen carry trade HAS BLOWN up/and now NIRP)

3. Short Swiss franc/long assets blew up ( Eastern European housing/Nikkei etc.

These massive carry trades are terribly offside as they are being unwound. It is causing global deflation ( we are at debt saturation already) as the world reacts to lack of demand and a scarcity of debt collateral. Bourses around the globe are reacting in kind to these events as well as the potential for a GREXIT>

The NIKKEI: this FRIDAY morning CLOSED DOWN 232.22 POINTS OR 1.18%

Trading from Europe and Asia:
1. Europe stocks  OPENED DEEPLY IN THE RED 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / : Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 296.65 POINTS OR 1.08%  / SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 0.29 POINTS OR 0.01%   /Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.49% /Nikkei (Japan)CLOSED DOWN 232.22  POINTS OR 2.18%   / INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1295.55

silver:$17.19

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield:  2.1887% !!! UP 0   IN POINTS from THURSDAY night in basis points and it is trading JUST BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

The 30 yr bond yield  2.7784, UP 0  IN BASIS POINTS  from THURSDAY night.

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 93.49 DOWN 13  CENT(S) from THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers  FRIDAY MORNING

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And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.773% DOWN 0 in basis point(s) yield from THURSDAY 

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.033%  DOWN 2   in   basis point yield from THURSDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.561% UP 12   IN basis point yield from THURSDAY 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.033 UP 1/2  POINTS  in basis point yield from WEDNESDAY 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 47 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: +.415% DOWN 1  IN  BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY

END

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IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM 

Euro/USA 1.1747 UP .0032 (Euro UP  32 Basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/

USA/Japan: 109.30 DOWN 0.040(Yen UP 4 basis points/ 

Great Britain/USA 1.2851 DOWN  0.0013( POUND DOWN 13 BASIS POINTS)

USA/Canada 1.2580 DOWN .0105 (Canadian dollar UP  105 basis points AS OIL ROSE TO $47.63

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This afternoon, the Euro was UP  by 32 basis points to trade at 1.1747

The Yen ROSE to 109.30 for a GAIN of 4  Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE  /OPERATION REVERSE TWIST ANNOUNCED SEPT 21.2016

The POUND FELL BY 13  basis points, trading at 1.2851/ 

The Canadian dollar ROSE by 105 basis points to 1.2580,  WITH WTI OIL RISING TO :  $47.63

The USA/Yuan closed at 6.6704/
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.033%  DOWN 2 IN  BASIS POINTS / yield/ 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 1  IN basis points from THURSDAY at 2.1922% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic  USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.777 DOWN 2 in basis points on the day /

Your closing USA dollar index, 93.53  DOWN 10 CENT(S)  ON THE DAY/1.00 PM 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 1:00 PM EST

London:  CLOSED DOWN 63.89 POINTS OR 0.86%
German Dax :CLOSED DOWN 38.27 POINTS OR 0.31%
Paris Cac  CLOSED DOWN 32.70 POINTS OR 0.64% 
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN  58.10 POINTS OR 0.56%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 26.10 POINTS OR 0.12% 

The Dow closed DOWN 76.22 OR 0.35%

NASDAQ WAS closed DOWN 5.39  POINTS OR 0.09%  4.00 PM EST

WTI Oil price;  47.63 at 1:00 pm; 

Brent Oil: 52.03 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE CROSS:  59.14 DOWN 8/100 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 8 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS TO  +0.415%  FOR THE 10 YR BOND  4.PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today

Closing Price for Oil, 5 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 5:00 PM:$48.68

BRENT: $52.84

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.196%  (ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 2.70% BLOWS UP THE GLOBE)

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.778%

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS:  1.1761 up .0045

USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.18  DOWN  0.149

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 93.41  down 22  cent(s) 

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.2873 : UP 13 POINTS FROM LAST NIGHT  

Canadian dollar: 1.2569 up 116 BASIS pts 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: +0.415%

END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

‘Bannon Bounce’ Fails To Correct ‘Cohn Crash’ As Nasdaq Drops For 4th Straight Week

Well that was a week…

 

Roller-coaster day for stocks – 2 overnight pump efforts failed; stocks sank into and beyond the US cash open, then went bid as Bannon headlines hit… only to slide as reality struck that with Bannon gone, the probability of war is considerably higher…and an ugly close into OPEX

 

All major cash indices close lower today… as it appears no one wants to hold risk into the weekend…

 

VIX across all major indices rose on the week…

 

Small Cap stocks actually dipped into the red year-to-date in this morning’s initial flush, before bouncing on Bannon headlines…

 

But Gold’s gains this week pushed it ahead of The Dow for 2017…

 

The last time Nasdaq fell for 4 straight weeks was May 2016

 

The S&P 500 remains below its 50DMA finding support at its 100DMA (2418)…NOTE – S&P has not been this close to its 100-day moving-average since the election

 

Financials were unable to hold on to gains after Bannon, Tech eked out a small gain on the week. Energy and retailers were hit hard…

 

Energy stocks pretty much ignore crude’s idiocy today…

 

And this is interesting…

 

Mixed day today for bonds but the long-end closed the week modestly lower and the rest of the curve very slightly higher in yield…

 

At the short end, the bill curve is notably inverted…

 

with the panic line in the sand around 9/28…

 

The 30Y Treasury Yield test 2.75%, near 2-month lows…

 

The Dollar Index ended the week very marginally higher but the trend was very clear into the close…

 

For those who ‘believe’ – Trump favorability has actually improved this week, implying dollar strength to come…

 

Copper outperformed on the week with gold, silver, and WTI all modestly lower… (NOTE – WTI exploded higher today, ‘triggered’ at the same time as Banon headlines hit)

 

Gold topped $1300 once again – the 3rd time this year

 

This chart made us laugh… USDJPY vs Gold…

 

Bitcoin had another big week – rising 16.5% to new record highs at around $4400. This is the 5th weekly rise in a row (and BTC is up 86% since the fork)…

 

But Bitcoin did tumble today amid increasing talk of another fork….

 

Finally, a reminder that ‘stuff’ is hitting fans – even if stocks don’t really show it… USA default/devaluation risk is now twice that of Germany…

 

END

 

Do not read too much into this:  soft data University of Michigan consumer sentiment beats expectations but most of the interviews were done prior to Charlottesville

 

(courtesy zero hedge)

UMich Beats But Warns A Drop Is Imminent

The University of Michigan Sentiment survey beat expectations with its preliminary August print (97.6 vs 94.0 exp) driven by a massive spike in ‘hope’ as currenct conditions slump to their weakest since Nov 2016.

How long will that ‘hope’ spike last?

 

As UMich details, half of all consumers in each of the last three Michigan surveys reported that their finances had recently improved, the best reading since 2000, the report showed. Americans were also upbeat about their financial prospects in the year ahead. 

However, while noting that there were too few interviews were conducted following Charlottesville to assess how much it will weaken consumers’ economic assessment, UMich goes on to warn…

The fallout is likely to reverse the improvement in economic expectations recorded across all political affiliations in early August.

 

Moreover, the Charlottesville aftermath is more likely to weaken the economic expectations of Republicans, since prospects for Trump’s economic policy agenda have diminished.

 

Nonetheless, the partisan difference between the optimism of Republicans and the pessimism of Democrats is still likely to persist, with Independents remaining as the bellwether group. At this point, the data continue to indicate a gain of 2.4% in personal consumption expenditures in 2017.

end

 

It seems that anybody with a pulse received financing for car.  Even bonuses were handed out for loaning money to poor credit risks.  It now looks like deep subprime auto delinquencies are spiking to 1o yr highs.  Trouble ahead in this arena

 

(courtesy zero hedge)

Carmageddon: Deep Subprime Auto Delinquencies Spike To 10-Year Highs

If you’re still on the fence about whether the auto market in this country is anything but a massive bubble being propped up by extremely loose credit underwriting standards, then we think Equifax has just provided some definitive evidence that just might push you over the edge.

In discussing delinquency trends in deep subprime auto ABS deals, Equifax Chief Economist Amy Crews Cutts recently pointed out that 2016 and 2017 vintage deals are mysteriously performing more like 2007 securitizations than those underwritten in 2010.

Here’s more from Bloomberg:

“Performance of recent deep subprime vintages is awful,” Equifax said in a slide show on second-quarter credit trends.

 

“We’re seeing an increase in delinquencies across all credit scores, but in the highest credit quality, it’s just a basis point or two,” Chief Economist Amy Crews Cutts said in an email Tuesday. “In deep subprime, the rise is more substantial. What stood out to me was the issuers. Those that have been doing this for a decade or more were showing the ‘better’ performance, while those that were relative newcomers were in the ‘worse’ category.”

 

And while we can’t be sure, we’re going to go out on a limb and suggest that the soaring delinquency rates of 2016/2017 vintage deals might just have something to do with promotions like the following one that literally offers a $1,500 discount to people with “Low Credit Scores.”  And, lest you think this is a joke, here is the fine print on the promotion:

“April 2017 Pricing on all new vehicles may include up to $1500 in finance rebates that have certain credit requirements to be able to claim this rebate. The finance office is Credit Score based and you must be below 620 to qualify. If you are over a 620 you must add up to $1500 to the price. Varies by make and model. Not all units are eligible for this rebate. Call Dealer for Details.”

Let that sink in for a moment…this lender is actually trying to attract borrowers with lower credit scores rather than higher…on a $55,000 vehicle no less.

Truck

 

All of which helps to explain why this happened:

Subprime

 

Meanwhile, Cutts seems to agree with our assessment noting that credit scores haven’t really changed but lenders continue to get more and more aggressive on underwriting standards in order to keep the party going just a little longer…which sounds familiar to those of us old enough to have lived through the mortgage crisis 10 years ago.

The reason for the increase, she posited, is that lenders have loosened underwriting requirements as more firms tap into a declining market for car loans, not that there are more customers with worsening credit profiles.

 

“It isn’t a case of chasing a larger subprime share,” Cutts said in an email Tuesday. There’s been “almost no change in median credit scores. That means they are letting other underwriting characteristics slide,” she said, referring to the lenders that issue the bulk of subprime loans — so-called monolines that specialize in one area of the credit market and dealer-finance companies that work specifically with car sellers.

 

“As soon as lenders (and the investors behind them) get overconfident that they have better models and can make excess profits by disrespecting credit risk, they always get their hats handed to them sooner or later,” Cutts said. “The mortgage market learned this lesson at the expense of the entire global financial system, and it is playing out now in a micro-level, in the ABS market for subprime auto loans.”

As we like to say, math always wins in the end…and somehow we suspect that offering $0 down, 0% financing for 80 months so deep subprime borrowers making $30k a year can purchase a $40,000 BMW doesn’t actually pencil out over the long haul…

end

 

Well that did not take long.  Wasserman Schultz’s IT aide, Awan has been indicted on 4 counts of bank fraud by lying to banks trying to obtain loan money.  Now the fun begins as they dig deeper into the DNC.  The big question: why did Debby Wasserman Schultz keep Awan on her payroll right up until he was arrested

(courtesy zero hedge)

 

Wasserman Schultz IT Staffer Indicted By Grand Jury On 4 Counts

The walls may be closing in on Debbie Wasserman Schultz after her former IT aide, the one who was arrested by the FBI at Dulles airportlast month while trying to flee the country to Pakistan via Qatar, has officially been indicted by a grand jury on four counts including bank fraud and making false statements.

As Fox News points out, the charges include Awan’s wife Hina Alvi and are tied to allegations that the pair conspired to make false statements on applications for home equity lines of credit and then sent the proceeds of those loans to individuals in Pakistan.

Imran Awan, a former IT aide for Democratic Florida Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, was indicted Thursday on four counts including bank fraud and making false statements.

 

The grand jury decision in U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia comes roughly a month after Awan was arrested at Dulles airport in Virginia trying to board a plane to Pakistan, where his family is from.

 

The indictment also includes his wife Hina Alvi.

 

The indictment itself, which merely represents formal charges and is not a finding of guilt, addresses separate allegations that Awan and his wife engaged in a conspiracy to obtain home equity lines of credit from the Congressional Federal Credit Union by giving false information about two properties – and then sending the proceeds to individuals in Pakistan.

So why is the real estate angle important?  As we noted previouslytitle companies, unlike individuals, can wire large sums of money to international bank accounts without arousing the suspicions of federal investigators.

Title companies can wire large sums abroad without attracting the suspicion Imran did at the bank, and with Hina — the nominal sole owner of each of the houses — residing in that country, it would be natural to send the proceeds to her.

 

In addition to the three houses sold or slated to be sold since June 20, Imran’s lawyer, Chris Gowen, told The New York Times that the $283,000 wire in January was preceded by other similar transfers to Pakistan. “Gowen said the transfer represented the latest payment by his client for a piece of property he was buying in the country,” The Times reported.

 

Gowen would not tell TheDCNF whether the proceeds of the $360,000 June 20 home sale were wired to Pakistan, nor where the income from the two upcoming sales would go. The office of the U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia declined to comment on whether it would block the disbursements.

 

The value of the known homes that have been sold since November or are currently being sold is $1.8 million. There is also the $283,000 January wire transfer from the Congressional bank, in addition to previous wires of unknown amounts that Imran’s lawyer acknowledged.

 

Since Imran’s lawyer said the January wire of nearly $300,000 was the latest in a series of wires, the transfers may have been about moving money from the $4 million in House payments or other sources.

Debbie

 

As background, Imran was first employed in 2004 by former Democrat Rep. Robert Wexler (FL) as an “information technology director”, before he began working in Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz’s office in 2005.

The family was paid extremely well, with Imran Awan being paid nearly $2 million working as an IT support staffer for House Democrats since 2004. Abid Awan and his wife, Hina Alvi, were each paid more than $1 million working for House Democrats. In total, since 2003, the family has collected nearly $5 million.

In total, Imran’s firm was employed by 31 Democrats in Congress, some of whom held extremely sensitive positions on the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence and the House Committee on Foreign Affairs.

Meanwhile, as we noted before, it is still unclear whether the bank fraud charges are just a placeholder for other charges that are yet to come. 

While details are scarce, media reports have alleged that Awan and his brothers potentially ran a procurement scheme in which they bought equipment, then overcharged various House members that employed their IT firm.  Meanwhile, some congressional technology aides have alleged that the Awan’s were blackmailing representatives based on the contents of their emails and files, due to the fact that these representatives have displayed unwavering and intense loyalty towards the former aides.

Of course, one of the most intriguing parts of the Awan narrative has continued to be why former DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman-Schultz decided to keep him on her taxpayer-funded payroll right up until his arrest and whether that decision had anything to do with the whole DNC / Hillary email scandals that erupted last summer.

Perhaps we are finally getting closer to an answer…

Matt Drudge reports that Steve Bannon is out at the White House
that will remove another key antagonist to the Goldman Sachs people surrounding the president.
Bannon will do more harm to the President outside rather than his post inside the White HOuse.
(courtesy Matt Drudge/zero hedge)

The official announcement:

 

Bannon Ousted From The White House

Confirming earlier reports from Matt Drudge and the NYT, on Friday afternoon the White House confirmed that Trump decided to push out his chief strategist, and the man who according to many got him elected, Stephen Bannon.

“White House Chief of Staff John Kelly and Steve Bannon have mutually agreed today would be Steve’s last day. We are grateful for his service and wish him the best,” the White House said in an emailed statement.

And so, Trump’s chief strategist Steve Bannon, the “nationalist firebrand” who helped to fuel Donald Trump’s dizzying rise to the presidency, is leaving the administration.

Before Bannon, Trump already fired two other aides who helped him win the White House — Reince Priebus and Michael Flynn — but the departure of Bannon, the former head of Breitbart News, is perhaps the most significant change yet.

Reporting on the departure, the NYT says that Trump has decided to remove Bannon, and he and top aides “were debating when and how to dismiss” the strategist. Ultimately, Bannon was fired, although there was some confusion:  “A person close to Bannon” said the chief strategist first decided to leave, according to the Times, having submitted his resignation on August 7, but the announcement was delayed after violence at a white nationalist rally in Charlottesville, Virginia, over the weekend, the newspaper reported.

Trump hinted that Bannon was on his way out on Tuesday, when during a press conference he was asked by a reporter if he still had confidence in his chief strategist: “We’ll see what happens with Mr. Bannon,” Trump responded, adding that while he believes he is a “good person,” Bannon “came on very late” to the campaign.

On Friday, Bannon did not attend a national security meeting on Afghanistan with Trump at Camp David Friday, even though he had been involved in the debate over troop levels. Increasingly isolated by the “Goldman” wing, Bannon had few allies left in the White House following the departure of Priebus as chief of staff. The two men had formed a strategic partnership out of political convenience but had become genuine allies.

His departure could be another sign that new chief of staff John Kelly has broad authority to clean house in a West Wing that has been hobbled by infighting and leaks.

Bannon’s worldview is at odds with many of Trump’s senior aides, and he clashed with the president’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn and national security adviser H.R. McMaster. Their feuds would often spill into the press, exacerbating tensions in the White House. And with Priebus gone, Bannon was at the mercy of Kelly, a retired Marine general who has been running a tight ship and is eager to rid the White House of drama.

Additionally, Bannon became a political liability in the wake of the Charlottesville protests, when Democrats cast Bannon, who once described Breitbart as “the platform for the alt-right,” as one of the “racists in the White House.” Pressure had been growing on Trump to cut ties with his nationalist wing, which also includes advisers Sebastian Gorka and Stephen Miller. Even some Republicans called for Bannon to go, calling him a divisive figure who had muddied the president’s authority on international issues

As the Post writes, while Bannon had been on the outs with Trump before, the president suspected Bannon was one of the main leakers in the administration, trashing his colleagues in the press.

The notoriously thin-skinned president also resented the publicity Bannon had been getting as the supposed mastermind of Trump’s campaign and upset victory. One White House source told Axios, “His departure may seem turbulent in the media, but inside it will be very smooth. He has no projects or responsibilities to hand off.”

Bannon in recent days gave interviews to publications including the New York Times in which he defended Trump’s controversial comments in the wake of the racial violence in Charlottesville, Va., last weekend.

The biggest risk for Trump is that Bannon is the biggest conduit to Trump’s conservative base. His departure could and likely will provoke a backlash among Trump’s core supporters, who are fearful that the president is now being advised by liberals and who they refer to as “globalists,” like Cohn, Kushner and McMaster. Breitbart News has been hammering McMaster in particular, who in recent weeks successfully rid the National Security Council of several of Bannon’s allies, according to the HIll.

“Steve’s allies in the populist nationalist movement are ready to ride to the gates of hell with him against the West Wing Democrats and globalists like [national security aide] Dina Powell, Jared Kushner, Ivanka Trump, Jared Kushner, Gary Cohn and H.R. McMaster,” said one Bannon ally.

 

“They should all be very worried that they’re efforts to undermine the president will be exposed. If they think what’s happened with Steve is rough, wait until they see what he does outside the White House.”

Speaking to the Post, a source close to Bannon added: This week is a good window into what Bannon outside the [White House] would look like: A strong defense of POTUS and ‘fire and fury’ for enemies of the Trump agenda. Get ready for Bannon the barbarian.”

Finally, with the ouster of Bannon, the list of high-ranking personnel fired by Trump rises to 13:

  • Sally Yates, the acting attorney general and an appointee of former President Barack Obama, was fired by Trump just ten days after he assumed office. Yates had refused to uphold the Trump administration’s controversial travel ban in January.
  • Michael Flynn resigned in February after serving in the position for less than a month. Flynn misled Vice President Mike Pence and other administration officials about the contents of his phone conversations with Sergey Kislyak, Russia’s ambassador to the US. Flynn reportedly discussed the Obama administration’s sanctions against Russia with Kislyak prior to Trump assuming office.
  • Katie Walsh, the former deputy chief of staff and close ally to chief of staff Reince Priebus left the White House just nine weeks into the job to run America First, a pro-Trump group outside of the government.
  • Preet Bharara, the former US Attorney for the Southern District of Manhattan and ‘Sheriff’ of Wall Street, was fired by Trump in March after Bharara refused to submit a resignation letter to Attorney General Jeff Sessions.
  • James Comey, the former FBI durector, was fired by Trump in May.
  • Michael Dubke, the former White House communications director, resigned in May. Dubke was replaced by Anthony Scaramucci, the founder of a hedge fund and a top Trump donor. Scaramucci was fired after just 10 days on the job (see below).
  • Walter Shaub, the former director of the Office of Government Ethics, resigned earlier this month after clashing with the White House over Trump’s complicated financial holdings. Shaub called Trump’s administration a “laughingstock,” following his resignation, and advocated for strengthening the US’s ethical and financial disclosure rules, per The New York Times.
  • Mark Corralo, spokesman for President Donald Trump’s legal team, resigned on July 20 within two months of being on the job.
  • Sean Spicer, the embattled former White House press secretary, resigned on July 21 after telling Trump he vehemently disagreed with the selection of Anthony Scaramucci as White House communications director.
  • Micheal Short, the former White House press aide, resigned the same day as Spicer, after Scaramucci revealed plans to fire him.
  • Reince Priebus, the former White House chief-of-staff, resigned just six months into his tenure after a public feud with Anthony Scaramucci, the White House communications director.
  • Anthony Scaramucci, who “resigned” as the new White House Communications Director on July 31, after just 10 days on the job.
  • Steve Bannon, Trump’s chief strategist, who first resigned on August 7 and was then fired by the White House on August 18.

end

As I mentioned above, Steve Bannon will be going after the globalists in Trump’s team which will further sever the chances for anything being done. Many voters who put Trump in power with the slogan America first will be thoroughly disappointed

 

a must read.

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

“They’re Going Thermonuclear”: Breitbart Declares “War” On The White House

The love affair between Breitbart, whose former head Steve Bannon was just fired by Donald Trump, just turned to hate, as confirmed by Joel Pollak, a Breitbart Editor, who moments ago tweeted one word:

As Axios’ Jonathan Swan explains, Joel is a Breitbart editor. They’re going thermonuclear, I’m told. 

Joel is a Breitbart editor. They’re going thermonuclear, I’m told. Story tk on Axios. https://twitter.com/joelpollak/status/898595085247324161 

Separately, as iBankCoin reports, investigative journalist and former Breitbart employee, Lee Stranahan, offered a quick quip on today’s news that Bannon has resigned from the White House, suggesting that Steve would ‘unleash the beast’ through his online publication and call out those working against the Trump agenda in the White House.

Dear @POTUS :

You have not yet figured out who your real enemies in the White House are. Best of luck without Bannon. 

Stranahan has been a long time loyalist to Bannon and ardent opponent to several people inside Trump’s White House, namely McMaster, Powell and Cohn. The theory he’s putting forth is that Bannon will have more power outside the White House than inside. While that might be true for Steve, I fail to see how fomenting more internal strife inside the Trump White House will be constructive at this point.

Nevertheless, it’s about to get real interesting soon. Watch

 

As for what Steve Bannon’s next steps would be, Axios reports that it “will be all about the billionaire Mercer family.”

I’m told Bannon, who visited New York this week, met with Bob Mercer and together they will be a well-funded force on the outside.

  • Bannon has felt liberated since it became clear he was being pushed out, according to friends. He’s told associates he has a “killing machine” in Breitbart News, and it’s possible he returns to lead their editorial operation.
  • A source familiar with Breitbart’s operations told me they would go “thermonuclear” against “globalists” that Bannon and his friends believe are ruining the Trump administration, and by extension, America.
  • Watch for Breitbart’s Washington Editor Matt Boyle to be a central figure in this war — which has already begun — against White House officials like HR McMaster, Dina Powell, Gary Cohn, and Jared and Ivanka.

Then again, Trump may be spared. As Politico’s Robert Costa tweets, “One theme I’m picking up: Bannon believes next battle is *not* w/ Trump but w/ Kushner/Cohn/Dina/HR McMaster. “Save Trump,” as one R put it.

One theme I’m picking up: Bannon believes next battle is *not* w/ Trump but w/ Kushner/Cohn/Dina/HR McMaster. “Save Trump,” as one R put it.

 

(courtesy zero hedge)

(courtesy zerohedge)

(courtesy zero hedge)

Trump Jr. Follows Julian Assange, Sparks Media Panic That A Presidential Pardon Is In The Works

Earlier this week we noted that Representative Dana Rohrabacher (R-CA) had a three hour meeting with Julian Assange at the Ecuadorian embassy in London to discuss ‘helpful’ information which Assange purported would prove that Russia was not his source for the DNC / Podesta leaks last year.

Not surprisingly, the mainstream media chose not to focus on that angle and decided instead to focus all of their efforts on branding Rohrabacher as a Russian spy.  That said, here is how Rohrabacher recounted the details of the meeting with Assange to The Hill:

“Our three-hour meeting covered a wide array of issues, including the WikiLeaks exposure of the DNC emails during last year’s presidential election,” Rohrabacher said,  “Julian emphatically stated that the Russians were not involved in the hacking or disclosure of those emails.”

 

Pressed for more detail on the source of the documents, Rohrabacher said he had information to share privately with President Donald Trump.

 

“Julian also indicated that he is open to further discussions regarding specific information about the DNC email incident that is currently unknown to the public,” he added.

Now, the following tweet from an account that tracks the every move of the Trump family has sparked new speculation that a Presidential pardon of Julian Assange may be in the works…something that is undoubtedly not all that palatable to our friends at CNN and MSNBC.

DonaldJTrumpJr has just followed @JulianAssange.

 

Meanwhile, we would note that Jr. is also a long-time follower of @wikileaks so that must necessarily mean that he coordinated the DNC / Podesta hacks directly with them.  Combine that with the fact that we’re almost certain that parsing through the nearly 1,200 accounts that Jr. follows would also reveal at least a couple of Russian sounding names and we’re pretty sure that Mueller’s grand jury has all they need for an indictment.

Of course, if Assange really has concrete evidence that his source is anyone other than a Kremlin-connected official then you would think that information might be deemed useful to Special Counsel Mueller since it’s basically the only reason his investigation exists in the first place.

Moreover, one would think that an immunity deal for Assange in return for such information would also be reasonable…rendering a presidential pardon moot. Certainly, the majority of Hillary’s staff was granted immunity deals for far less useful information…

END

This is something that we have been pointing out to you for the past few weeks:  Goldman Sachs sees a 50% chance of a government shutdown.  So do we!

(courtesy zerohedge)

Goldman Sees 50% Chance Of A Government Shutdown

As we pointed out earlier, the chances of government agreeing any kind of debt ceiling deal (and avoiding a government shutdown) is dropping fast as USA default risk spikes and the Treasury Bill curve inverts. Goldman Sachs is now concerned also…

Uncertainty in The White House is starting to make investors realize the chance of successfully navigating the debt ceiling crisis without a government shutdown are dwindling…

Via Goldman Sachs,

Low approval ratings raise legislative risks.

 

In the near term, we believe there is a 50% chance of a brief government shutdown, as the president seeks to solidify support among his base by embracing more controversial positions, despite needing Democratic support to pass spending legislation.

 

That said, we expect that the debt limit, which needs to be raised around the same time, will prevent a longer shutdown from occurring.

It seems the credit markets are a little less sanguine than Goldman… 

 

As we noted earliersure, Congress has always come together at the 11th hour in the past.  They’ve raised the debt ceiling 78 times over the last 57 years.  So, won’t they just raise it again?

This time around, we have some reservations.  Quite frankly, this Congress has proven that it is not motivated to do what’s best for the American people.  Each representative has an illogical logic unto himself.  Just ask John McCain – he doesn’t know what he wants until the precise moment he votes.

What’s more, these days the debt ceiling has become ultra-politicized in Congress.  Big time horse trading must first take place before an agreement can be reached.  Big time bluster and chest pounding must take place too.

The point is, over the past six months this Congress has been incapable of getting a doggone thing done.  What makes you think they’ll somehow get their act together in just 12 days?

end

Let us close out the week with this wrap up courtesy of Greg Hunter of uSAWatchdog

 

(courtesy Greg Hunter/USAWatchdog)

Trump Racism More Fake News, KKK & Atifa Both Violent, Fed Melts Dollar

By Greg Hunter On August 18, 2017 In Weekly News Wrap-Ups

The propaganda mainstream media and democrats are now trying to paint President Trump as a racist when he clearly is not. The Democrats are out of ideas, and the only thing they have to offer are lies. The Democrats also want to erase our history and attack the Founding Fathers as racists. The Democrat Party, which has all the earmarks of communism, wants to tear up the Constitution because it was written by racists, according to them. It’s one lie after another from the party of liars and cheaters that does not have a single idea to help the average American. This is not going to work either.

If you watch the propaganda media, you would think the only evil people at the recent Charlottesville protest that turned violent were the KKK and Nazis. In fact, the counter protesters, such as Antifa, were equally violent, reckless and evil. Both sides came to this so-called peaceful protest with bats, pepper spray, shields and helmets. There was no way this was going to remain peaceful if both sides are ready to hit one another over the head with a baseball bat. Trump was spot on when he said both sides were to blame, and there is evidence that some of the counter protesters to the KKK were paid by people like George Soros. The media is only reporting one side to try to paint Trump a racist to score political points, which is the definition of propaganda. Don’t fall for the MSM con, they all lie and are approved and paid to do so.

The Fed revealed they are worried about the economy and are very reluctant to raise interest rates. Gregory Mannarino of TradersChoice.net says the Fed knows all too well the economy is much weaker than they would like to admit and is probably not going to raise rates. Mannarino says he thinks they will continue to melt down the dollar and melt up the stock market until it pops. Mannarino says keep an eye on the bond market for signs of trouble. He says that’s where a crash will start.

Join Greg Hunter as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up.

(To Donate to USAWatchdog.com Click Here )

Video Link

http://usawatchdog.com/trump-racism-more-fake- news-kkk-atifa-both-violent-fed-melts-dollar/

 

 

end

 

WELL THAT ABOUT DOES IT FOR TONIGHT

I will see you MonDAY  night

Harvey.

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