Sept 12/Gold and silver hold after relentless attacks by the banks: gold down only $2.95 and silver is down only 1 cent/EU trying to extract a huge penalty from the UK for Brexit/England balks/Hurricane Irma now floods Savannah Georgia after surge floods also hit Charleston SC and Jacksonville/

GOLD: $1328.60 DOWN   $2.95

Silver: $17.83  DOWN 1 CENT(S)

Closing access prices:

Gold $1331.75

silver: $17.89

SHANGHAI GOLD FIX:  FIRST FIX  10 15 PM EST  (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SECOND FIX:  2:15 AM EST  (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1342.23 DOLLARS PER OZ

NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME:  $1337.40

PREMIUM FIRST FIX:  $4.83

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SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1330.58

NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1326.25

Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$4.33

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LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX:  5:30 am est  $1326.25

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1326.00

LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX  10 AM: $1326.50

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. 1326.80

For comex gold:

SEPTEMBER/

NOTICES FILINGS TODAY FOR SEPT CONTRACT MONTH: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR  0  OZ.

TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 51 FOR 5100 OZ  (0.1586 TONNES)

For silver:

SEPTEMBER

 158 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR

790,000  OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 4,634 for 23,170,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

end

Today was a good day as gold and silver withstood massive paper hits throughout the night and early this morning with the bankers going all out to lower the two prices of our precious metals.  Lately we have seen gold/silver withstand these fierce attacks.  You will recall that Andrew Maguire confirmed that perennial precious metal short Goldman Sachs has turned to the buy side.  They know the antics of the banks and it sure looks like it is these guys that are thwarting the paper selling efforts of our remaining banks.

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total open interest FELL BY A RATHER LOW 1165 contracts from  188,176 DOWN TO 187,176 DESPITE THE HEAVY SIZED DROP IN PRICE THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING (DOWN 19 CENT(S). WE HAVE HAD TWO DAYS OF TORMENT AND YET THE SILVER OPEN INTEREST HARDLY BUDGES.  THE LONGS ARE REMAINING STOIC AND REFUSE TO GIVE IN TO THE ANTICS OF THE BANKERS.

RESULT: A SMALL FALL IN OI COMEX  DESPITE THE 19 CENT PRICE LOSS. 

 In ounces, the OI is still represented by just UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e.  0.935 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 133% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MAY MONTH/ THEY FILED: 158 NOTICE(S) FOR 790,000  OZ OF SILVER

In gold, the open interest FELL BY A SMALLER THAN EXPECTED 3,325 CONTRACTS DESPITE THE BIG LOSS  in price of gold ($15.05 LOSS YESTERDAY). The new OI for the gold complex rests at 574,119. NO WONDER THAT WE ANOTHER DAY OF TORMENT FROM THE BANKERS. 

THE FLASH CRASHES ARE CERTAINLY HAVE AN EFFECT ON SOME OF OUR WEAKER LONGS AS THEY DEPART THE CROOKED CASINO. THE BANKERS WERE NOT AS SUCCESSFUL IN COVERING SOME OF THEIR SHORTFALL.

Result: A SMALL SIZED LOSS IN OI DESPITE THE HUGE FALL IN PRICE IN GOLD ($15.05). THE COMMERCIALS SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.  SOME OF OUR NEWBIE LONGS GOT ANNIHILATED ON ANOTHER FLASH CRASH.  THE BANKERS WERE NOT AS SUCCESSFUL IN COVERING THEIR SHORTS AS THEY WOULD HAVE LIKED.

we had: 0 notice(s) filed upon for NIL oz of gold.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD:

Tonight , we had no  changes in gold inventory:.as of 5;40 pm est

Inventory rests tonight: 834.50 tonnes

SLV

Today: no change in inventory.

INVENTORY RESTS AT 327.088 MILLION OZ

end

.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in silver FELL BY A SMALLER THAN EXPECTED 1165 contracts from 188,341  DOWN TO 187,176(AND now A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET ON FRIDAY/APRIL 21/2017 AT 234,787) DESPITE YESTERDAY’S 19 CENT LOSS IN TRADING. OUR LONGS ARE STRONG AND REFUSE TO BUDGE WITH THE ANTICS OF OUR BANKERS.

RESULT:  A  SMALLER OI  LOSS AT THE COMEX THAT WAS EXPECTED DESPITE THE LARGE  FALL IN PRICE OF 19 CENTS.

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

 

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY:  Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late SUNDAY night/MONDAY morning: Shanghai closed UP 3.06 POINTS OR 0.09%   / /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 17.11 POINTS OR 0.06%/ The Nikkei closed UP 230.85 POINTS OR 1.18%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.54%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.5360/Oil DOWN to 47.83 dollars per barrel for WTI and 53.83 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN EXCEPT LONDON. Offshore yuan trades  6.5426 yuan to the dollar vs 6.5360 for onshore yuan. NOW THE OFFSHORE MOVED MUCH WEAKER  TO THE ONSHORE YUAN/ ONSHORE YUAN MUCH WEAKER (TO THE DOLLAR)  AND THE OFFSHORE YUAN IS A LOT WEAKER TO THE DOLLAR AND THIS IS COUPLED WITH THE SLIGHTLY  WEAKER DOLLAR. CHINA IS NOT VERY HAPPY TODAY

 

3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA

i)NORTH KOREA/

 The UN unanimously approves new sanctions against North Korea( zerohedge)

ii)North Korea again threatens the west with the “greatest possible pain and suffering” to which they ignore.  North Korea will suffer a lot of pain as 90% of the exports are cut off.

( zero hedge)

iii)The latest threats seem to both the market with the following release:

( zerohedge)

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

My goodness:  the central bank of Japan now owns 75% of all Japanese ETF’s.  The problem will come when they have to unload them and what will happen to the Japanese stock market

( zero hedge)

c) REPORT ON CHINA

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

1000’s head to the streets in Barcelona for Catalan National Day.  The referendum date  for Independence is Oct 1.2017.

( zero hedge)

ii)UK/EU

The EU wants a huge 100 billion pound payment for backing out of the partnership.  England is balking and 4 MP’s are threatening to block divorce payments unless Parliament approves
( Mish Shedlock/Mish talk )

iib )  The British Pound sinks against the dollar (Cable= Pound/USA dollar) when the two sides have big disagreements as to the penalty exit Britain must pay for a BREXIT.  A one week cooling off period is now called for( zerohedge)

iii)Italy

 

Three of Italy’s top 4 political parties now seek a new parallel currency to trade along side the Euro. Over 50% of the population want to get out of the Euro so this is one way to attract the votes

( Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

7. OIL ISSUES

i)OPEC cuts a tiny bit of oil production as compliance slides again.  The problem facing OPEC now will be the lack of demand due to the hurricanes.

( zerohedge)

( zero hedge)

8. EMERGING MARKET

VENEZUELA

the true inflation rate in Venezuela: 1900% per year

(courtesy Steve Hanke/John Hopkins University)

9.   PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Local exchanges deny any crackdown report on Bitcoin

 

( zerohedge)

ii)However Bitcoin tumbles after Jamie Dimon considers the currency a fraud: and he would fire anyone trading in it

( zero hedge)
iii)You will recall that Andrew Maguire told us that Goldman Sachs has gone to the buy side in gold.  Here is Benjamin Smith commenting on how one must own physical gold and it it the true hedge of last resort
(courtesy Benjamin Smith/Lombardiletter.com/)

10. USA Stories

 

i)It is now official;  USA debt is now 20.162 trillion dollars, jumping 318 billion dollars.  They have until March when the next debt ceiling showdown commences

( zerohedge)

ii)Storm surges flood Charleston, Savannah Georgia and Jacksonville.  According to the Florida light and Power the entire electrical infrastructural must be rebuilt and it will take weeks to restore power.  As a reminder most citizens do not have flood insurance and they will have to pay with their own money to fix their homes.  The problem is that they are all maxed out. The money must come from outright grants from the Government.

( zerohedge)

iii) The Awans may get immunity for a “significant disturbing story” on Wasserman Schultz and others..

( zero hedge)

iv)Oh OH!!  JPM, our friendly crooked bank and largest short in both gold and silver warns that its trading revenue will be down 20% due to lack of volatility.  As we have been pointing out to you, when the Fed continually slams the VIX, this hurts banking revenue as they need that volatility:

( zerohedge)

v)David Stockman comments on what will happen to the USA if they get rid of the debt ceiling:  they must address the huge number of baby boomers who will seek entitlements:

( David Stockman/DailyReckoning)

Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest FELL BY A SMALLER THAN EXPECTED 3325 CONTRACTS DOWN to an OI level of 574,119 DESPITE THE  LARGE SIZED LOSS IN THE PRICE OF GOLD  ($15.05 LOSS IN YESTERDAY’S trading).  MOST WERE EXPECTING A LOSS OF AROUND 10,000 CONTRACTS  AND THAT WOULD EXPLAIN THE CONTINUAL TORMENT BY OUR BANKER FRIENDS TODAY.

Result: a  SMALLER  SIZED open interest DECREASE with an LARGE sized DROP  in the price of gold. CONTINUAL BANKER TORMENT 

The new non active September contract month saw it’s OI FALL BY 8 contracts DOWN to 820.   We had 0 notices filed UPON YESTERDAY so we LOST 8 contracts or an additional 800 oz will NOT stand AND 8 EFP’s WERE ISSUED which entitles them to a fiat bonus plus a deliverable contract on a different exchange and most likely that would be London.  These are private deals so we do not get to see the makeup of these deals only the number of EFP’s issued.

The next active contract month is Oct and here we saw a LOSS of 1295 contracts DOWN to 41,494.

The November contract saw A GAIN OF 102 contracts UP to 359.

The very big active December contract month saw it’s OI LOSS OF 3353 contracts DOWN to 451,372.

We had 0 notice(s) filed upon today for  NIL oz

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And now for the wild silver comex results.  Total silver OI FELL BY A LESS THAN EXPECTED 1,165 CONTRACTS FROM 188,341 DOWN TO 187,176 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S   19 CENT LOSS IN PRICE.   DESPITE THE CONSTANT TORMENT FROM THE BANKERS, OUR LONGS REMAIN RESOLUTE DETERMINED TO TAKE ON OUR BANKERS HAS HARDLY ANY SILVER LEAVES FELL FROM THE SILVER TREE. DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER REMAINS EXTREMELY HIGH AS AGAIN THE AMOUNT STANDING FOR DELIVERY INCREASED AGAIN AND THIS TIME BY A WHOPPING 705,000 OZ.  WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING THIS PHENOMENA FOR THE PAST 5 MONTHS.  (SEE BELOW).
RESULT:  A SMALLER SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX THAN WAS EXPECTED DESPITE A 19 CENT LOSS IN PRICE. DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER RISES AGAIN AS THE AMOUNT STANDING INCREASES FOR THE SEPT CONTRACT MONTH BY A WHOPPING 705,000 OZ.  THE BANKERS THIS TIME WERE RETICENT TO SUPPLY THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER AS THEY COULD NOT CAUSE MORE SILVER LEAVES (OI) TO FALL!!. JUDGING FROM THE TRADING IN SILVER TODAY, THE BANKERS SEEM TRAPPED AND CANNOT GET OUT OF THEIR HUGE PAPER SHORTS.

We are now in the active contract month of September (and the last active month until December). Today we witness Sept. OI FALL by 247 contacts DOWN to 1054. We had 388 notices filed yesterday, so we again gained 141 contracts or an additional 705,000 oz will stand for delivery. This phenomenon has been happening in silver for the past 5 months whereby the amount standing increases on each and every delivery day.  This queue jumping highlights the huge demand for silver that we have been witnessing around the globe. The next non active contract month for silver after September is October and here the OI GAINED 39 contacts UP TO 1105. November saw a GAIN of 3  contract(s) and thus ADVANCING to 59. After November, the NEXT big active contract month is December and here the OI LOST 2371 contracts DOWN to 160,530 contracts.

We had 158 notice(s) filed for  790,000 oz for the SEPT. 2017 contract

VOLUMES: for the gold comex

ESTIMATED VOLUME TODAY: 268,041 CONTRACTS WHICH IS GOOD

YESTERDAY’S confirmed volume was 316,844 which is excellent

volumes on gold are STILL HIGHER THAN NORMAL!

INITIAL standings for SEPTEMBER

 Sept.12/2017.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz   nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz  
NIL oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz    nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz 
 NIL oz
No of oz served (contracts) today
 
0 notice(s)
NIL OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
820 contracts
(82,000 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
51 notices
5100 oz
0.1586 tonnes
Total accumulative withdrawals  of gold from the Dealers inventory this month   NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month   9,193.0  oz
Today we HAD  0 kilobar transaction(s)/ 
total dealer deposits: nil oz
We had nil dealer withdrawals:
total dealer withdrawals:  0 oz
we had 0 customer deposit(s):
total customer deposits; NIL  oz
We had 2 customer withdrawal(s)
 i) out of Delaware: 1,991.44 oz
ii) Out of Scotia: 128.600 oz (4 kilobars)
total customer withdrawals; NIL oz
 we had 0 adjustment(s)
For SEPT:

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 0  contract(s)  of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

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To calculate the initial total number of gold ounces standing for the SEPTEMBER. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (51) x 100 oz or 5100 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT. (820 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (0) x 100 oz per contract equals 87,900  oz, the number of ounces standing in this active month of SEPT.
 
Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPTEMBER contract month:
No of notices served so far (51) x 100 oz  or ounces + {(820)OI for the front month  minus the number of  notices served upon today (0) x 100 oz which equals 87,100 oz standing in this  active delivery month of SEPTEMBER  (2.709 tonnes)
We LOST 8 contracts or 800 oz will NOT stand and 8 EFP’s were issued for September which gives the long holder a fiat bonus plus a deliverable product on another exchange and that most likely will be London.
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Total dealer inventory 741,512.035 or 23.064 tonnes  (dealer gold continues to disappear)
Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) = 8,696,919.037 or 270.510 tonnes 
 
Over a year ago the comex had 303 tonnes of total gold. Today the total inventory rests at 270.44 tonnes for a  loss of 33  tonnes over that period.  Since August 8/2016 we have lost 34 tonnes leaving the comex. However I am including kilobar transactions and they are very suspect at best.
I have a sneaky feeling that these withdrawals of gold in kilobars are being used in the hypothecating process  and are being used in the raiding of gold!

The gold comex is an absolute fraud.  The use of kilobars and exact weights makes the data totally absurd and fraudulent! To me, the only thing that makes sense is the fact that “kilobars: are entries of hypothecated gold sent to other jurisdictions so that they will not be short with their underwritten derivatives in that jurisdiction.  This would be similar to the rehypothecated gold used by Jon Corzine at MF Global.
 
IN THE LAST 13 MONTHS  84 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.
end
And now for silver
AND NOW THE AUGUST DELIVERY MONTH
September initial standings
 Sept 12  2017
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory  nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
128,366.476 oz
CNT
Delaware
Scotia
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil  oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory 
 NIL oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
158 CONTRACT(S)
(790,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
896 contracts
(4,480,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 4634 contracts (23,170,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month  NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal  of silver from the Customer inventory this month 4,278,420.2 oz
today, we had  0 deposit(s) into the dealer account:
total dealer deposit: nil   oz
we had 0 dealer withdrawals:
total dealer withdrawals: nil oz
we had 3 customer withdrawal(s):
i) Out of CNT: 1000.500 oz
ii) Out of Delaware: 7,094.636  oz
iii) Out of Scotia: 120,271.340 oz
TOTAL CUSTOMER WITHDRAWALS: 128,366.476  oz
We had 0 Customer deposit(s):
***deposits into JPMorgan have stopped  again
In the month of March and February, JPMorgan stopped (received) almost all of the comex silver contracts.
why is JPMorgan bringing in so much silver??? why is this not criminal in that they are also the massive short in silver
total customer deposits: nil oz
 
 we had 1 adjustment(s)
i) Out of Brinks:  519,139.540 oz was transferred from the customer into the dealer account of Brinks
The total number of notices filed today for the SEPTEMBER. contract month is represented by 158 contract(s) for 790,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPTEMBER., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 4634 x 5,000 oz  = 23,170,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT (1054) and the number of notices served upon today (158) x 5000 oz equals the number of ounces standing.
 

 

.
 
Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the SEPTEMBER contract month:  4634 (notices served so far)x 5000 oz  + OI for front month of SEPTEMBER(1054 ) -number of notices served upon today (158)x 5000 oz  equals  27,650,000 oz  of silver standing for the SEPTEMBER contract month. This is excellent for this active delivery month. Silver is being constantly demanded at the silver comex and we witness again the amount of silver demanded daily increase right from the get go. (ON AUGUST 31 (FIRST DATE NOTICE) WE HAD 20.15 MILLION OZ STAND. THUS IN THE FIRST 11 DAYS OF SEPTEMBER, WE HAVE HAD A HUGE INCREASE OF  7.7 MILLION OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY AS DEALERS JUMP QUEUE TRYING TO FIND THE NECESSARY SILVER TO SUPPLY TO OUR LONGS.)
 
WE HAD AN INCREASE OF 141 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 705,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE CONTRACT MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. THIS HAS BEEN THE 5th CONSECUTIVE MONTH THAT WE HAVE WITNESSED EITHER AN INCREASE (95% OF THE TIME) OR STANDING PAT (THE OTHER 5%).  WE HAVE NOT HAVE A DECREASE IN STANDING I.E. AS THEY DELIVERY MONTH PROCEEDS NOBODY WISHES AN EFP PRODUCT IN EXCHANGE FOR A DEPARTING LONG.SOMEBODY BIG WANTS SILVER IN A VERY BIG WAY.
Last yr on the first day notice for the Sept silver 2016 contract we had 17.070 million oz stand for delivery.
By month end:  16.075 million oz/
 
Volumes: for silver comex
ESTIMATED VOLUME TODAY: 60,887 CONTRACTS WHICH IS EXCELLENT
YESTERDAY’s  confirmed volume was 88,409 contracts which is GIGANTIC
YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 88,409 CONTRACTS WHICH EQUATES TO 442 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OR 63% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER EX CHINA EX RUSSIA). IN OUR HEARINGS THE COMMISSIONERS STRESSED THAT THE OPEN INTEREST SHOULD BE AROUND 3% OF THE MARKET.
 
Total dealer silver:  42.875 million (close to record low inventory  
Total number of dealer and customer silver:   217.633 million oz
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017  with the price at that day at  $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
end

NPV for Sprott and Central Fund of Canada

1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative 5.3 percent to NAV usa funds and Negative 5.2% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!! 
Percentage of fund in gold 62.3%
Percentage of fund in silver:37.7%
cash .+0.0%( Sept 12/2017) 
2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): STOCK   NAV RISES TO -0.16% (Sept 12/2017) 
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.48% to NAV  (Sept 12/2017 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back  into NEGATIVE territory at -0.16%/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ territory at -0.48%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail  but being rescued by Sprott.

Sprott’s hostile 3.1 billion bid to take over Central Fund of Canada

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

Sprott makes hostile $3.1 billion bid for Central Fund of Canada

 Section: Daily Dispatches

From the Canadian Press
via Canadian Broadcasting Corp. News, Toronto
Wednesday, March 8, 2017

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/sprott-takeover-bid-central-fund-c…

Toronto-based Sprott Inc. said Wednesday it’s making an all-share hostile takeover bid worth $3.1 billion US for rival bullion holder Central Fund of Canada Ltd.

The money-management firm has filed an application with the Court of Queen’s Bench of Alberta seeking to allow shareholders of Calgary-based Central Fund to swap their shares for ones in a newly-formed trust that would be substantially similar to Sprott’s existing precious metal holding entities.

The company is going through the courts after its efforts to strike a friendly deal were rebuffed by the Spicer family that controls Central Fund, said Sprott spokesman Glen Williams.

“They weren’t interested in having those discussions,” Williams said.

 Sprott is using the courts to try to give holders of the 252 million non-voting class A shares a say in takeover bids, which Central Fund explicitly states they have no right to participate in. That voting right is reserved for the 40,000 common shares outstanding, which the family of J.C. Stefan Spicer, chairman and CEO of Central Fund, control.

If successful through the courts, Sprott would then need the support of two-thirds of shareholder votes to close the takeover deal, but there’s no guarantee they will make it that far.

“It is unusual to go this route,” said Williams. “There’s no specific precedent where this has worked.”

Sprott did have success last year in taking over Central GoldTrust, a similar fund that was controlled by the Spicer family, after securing support from more than 96 percent of shareholder votes cast.

The firm says Central Fund’s shares are trading at a discount to net asset value and a takeover by Sprott could unlock US$304 million in shareholder value.

Central Fund did not have any immediate comment on the unsolicited offer. Williams said Sprott had not yet heard from Central Fund on the proposal but that some shareholders had already contacted them to voice their support.

Sprott’s existing precious metal holding companies are designed to allow investors to own gold and other metals without having to worry about taking care of the physical bullion.

end

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD

Sept 12/as of 5: 40 pm est, no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 834.50 tonnes

Sept 11/Today we had a rather large 2.37 tonnes of gold removed from the GLD/Inventory rests at 834.50 tonnes

Sept 8/we had a tiny withdrawal of .34 tonnes and probably that would be to pay for fees like insurance etc.

Inventory rests at 836.87 tonnes

Sept 7./no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 837.21 tonnes

SEPT 6/WE HAD ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 5.91 TONNES INTO THE GLD/IN THE LAST TWO DAYS: 20.69 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 837.21 TONES

Sept 5/we had a huge deposit of 14.78 tonnes into the GLD/Inventory rests at 831.21 tonnes

Sept 1/ no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 816.43 tonnes

AUGUST 31/no change in gold inventory at the GLD. Inventory rests at 816.43 tonnes

August 30/another deposit of 2.07 tonnes into the GLD inventory/inventory rests at 816.43 tonnes

August 29/a huge deposit of 9.16 tonnes of probable paper gold/inventory rests at 814.36 tonnes

AUGUST 28/a huge deposit f 5.91 tonnes of gold into GLD inventory/inventory rests at 805.20 tonnes

AUGUST 25/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.29 TONNES

AUGUST 24/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 799.29 tonnes

August 23/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 799.29 tonnes

August 22/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 799.29 tonnes/

AUGUST 21/this is good!! a huge deposit of gold into the GLD to the tune of 3.85 tonnes/Inventory rests at 799.29 tonnes

August 18/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 795.44 TONNES

August 17/late last night, a deposit of 4.43 tonnes of gold at the GLD/inventory rests at 795.44 tonnes/the bleeding of gold has stopped.

August 16/no change in gold inventory at the GLD. Inventory rests at 791.01 tonnes

August 15/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 791.01 tonnes

August 14/this is good!!: a gain of 4.14 tonnes of gold into the GLD inventory/the removal of GLD gone to the east has now stopped probably because there is no physical to send/inventory rests at 791.01 tonnes

August 11/no change in gold inventory/Inventory rests at 786.87 tonnes

August 7/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 787.14 tonnes

AUGUST 4/ANOTHER LOSS OF 4.48 TONNES OF GOLD FROM GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 787.14 TONNES.THIS IS A HUGE CRIME SCENE!!

August 3/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 791.88 tonnes

August 2/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 791.88 TONNES

Aug 1/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 791.88 TONNES

July 31/NO CHANGES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 791.88 TONNES

July 28/ANOTHER MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.54 TONNES OF GOLD WITH GOLD UP $9.15/INVENTORY RESTS AT 791.88 TONNES

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Sept 12 /2017/ Inventory rests tonight at 834.50 tonnes
*IN LAST 230 TRADING DAYS: 106.60 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 166 TRADING DAYS: A NET  50.83 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  GLD INVENTORY.
*FROM FEB 1/2017: A NET  19.44 TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED.

end

Now the SLV Inventory

Sept 12.2017/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 327.088 million oz/

Sept 11.2017: no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 327.088 million oz/

Sept 8/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 327.088 million oz/

Sept 7/STRANGE!! WITH DEMAND FOR SILVER HUGE WE HAD ANOTHER 945,000 OZ WITHDRAWN. NO DOUBT THAT THIS IS CRIMINAL ACTIVITY AS SILVER IS WITHDRAWN AND USED TO CONTAIN THE RISE IN PRICE/INVENTORY RESTS AT 327.088 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 6/STRANGE WITH A HUGE DEMAND FOR SILVER THROUGHOUT THE WORLD THESE DOORKNOBS WITHDRAW A HUGE 3.148 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.033 MILLION OZ

Sept 5/2017: no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 331.178 million oz/

Sept 1/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 331.178 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 31/STRANGE!! a huge withdrawal of 2.019 million oz with silver up today./INVENTORY RESTS AT 331.178 MILLION OZ

August 30/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 333.178 million oz

August 29/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.178 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 28/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 333.178 million oz/

AUGUST 25/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.178 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 24/A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.229 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.178 MILLION OZ

August 23/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 334.407 million oz

August 22/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 334.407 million oz.

AUGUST 21/no change in silver inventory/inventory rests at 334.407 million oz/

August 18/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REST AT 334.407 MILLION OZ

August 17/A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.418 MILLION OZ LEAVES THE VAULTS OF THE SLV (WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS YESTERDAY?)/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.407 MILLION OZ

August 16/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 335.825 million oz/

August 15/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 335.825 million oz.

August 14./no change in silver inventory/inventory rests at 335.825 million/

August 11/no change in silver inventory tonight.  However we lost 3,781 million oz from Tuesday through Thursday. Inventory rests at 335.825 million oz/

August 7/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 339.606 million oz

AUGUST 4/A WITHDRAWAL OF 945,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 339.606 MILLION OZ

August 3/A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,181,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTOR RESTS AT 340.551 MILLION OZ/

August 2/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

INVENTORY RESTS AT 341.732 MILLION OZ/

August 1/A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 945,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 341.732 MILLION OZ/

July 31/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 342.677 million oz

July 28/ A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 MILLION OZ OF SILVER LEAVES THE SLV DESPITE SILVER BEING UP 11 CENTS TODAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT  342.677 MILLION OZ

Sept 12.2017:

Inventory 327.088  million oz
end
  • 6 Month MM GOFO

    Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration

    + 1.35%
  • 12 Month MM GOFO
    + 1.55%
  • 30 day trend

end

Major gold/silver trading/commentaries for TUESDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.

GOLD/SILVER

Buy Gold for Long Term as “Fiat Money Is Doomed”

– Buy gold for long term as fiat money is doomed warns Frisby
– Gold’s “winning streak” will continue in long term
– September is traditionally a good month for gold, as we head into the Indian wedding season
– “It’s just a matter of time before gold comes good again…”

by Dominic Frisby, Money Week

Today folks, by popular demand, we’re talking gold.
It’s had a nice summer run.
What now?

Gold price chart

Gold has been buoyed by the North Korea scare

Let’s start with an update. Back in July I suggested a flip trade: buy then in anticipation of a rally, sell in the autumn. But I also ventured that a proper, multi-year bull market in gold, such as the one we saw in the 2000s, was a way off.

The price then was $1,230 an ounce. As I write, we’re a couple of dollars shy of $1,340. We’ve had a $110 rally. Aren’t I a genius?

So what do we do now? Buy more? Sell? Hold?

Let’s have a lively debate.

The first observation I’d make is that a good $30 to $40 of today’s price is war premium. A certain North Korean has been firing missiles and exploding bombs. The world has, quite understandably, got nervous. And a certain American has been positing (with some justification) various potential responses on Twitter.

Is this North Korean affair going to die down and fade away, or is it going to escalate?

Regular readers of this column will be aware that I know the answer to most things, but I confess that here I fall short. This is something of which only a select group of informed North Korean insiders will have concrete knowledge.

But how this affair pans out will determine gold’s direction in the short term. If it escalates, gold goes up. If it doesn’t, then that $30 or $40 of war premium will be given back.

I’d wager that this is just noise, albeit rather scary noise, and that it will pass. But this is no more than a guess, and not even an informed one.

Aside from North Korea, over the last 45 years, September has proved a good month for gold, rising by an average of about 2.5%. The given reason for this is that gold buying increases as we head into the Indian wedding season, which runs from October to December. Indians are the biggest buyers of physical metals. About a third of global physical gold demand comes from India, half of which is spent on jewellery for their ten million weddings each year.

However, over the past five years, the reverse has been the case. September has been a bad month for gold with falls averaging around 1.5% for the period. That might be simply because we have been in a bear market. It might be because Indian gold-buying has been upset by various changes in legislation and new taxes, and is down some 10%-15% from the heady heights of 2010 and 2011.

Gold has the potential to roar higher – but it could easily stall, too

I was intrigued by this chart (chart above) from Jordan Roy-Byrne over at the Daily Gold. In the top pane you see the gold price since last 2009. In the bottom one you see the net speculative position of Comex traders.

Currently, the net speculative position has hit 248,000 contracts, which amounts to an open interest of 46%. You can see by the red arrows Jordan has drawn that the 55% marked the 2011 top, the 2012 top and the 2016 top.

If the net speculative position rises to that level from here I would venture that that is a level from which to be selling quite aggressively.

In the longer term, there are constructive things to see in the chart. The 2017 low was higher than the 2015-16 low. Each of the 2017 lows has been higher than the last. However, for me to come out and declare myself a full-blown bull, I’d like to see us break above the 2016 highs around $1,370. For us to make a higher high, in other words.

That high is not far off – only $30. But until that point, I’m going to take the cautious-and-hope-I’m-wrong stance and say we are still trading in a range, and no new multi-year bull market has yet begun.

From a Comex point of view there is room to go higher – gold is hot, but not yet bubbly. From a seasonal point of view there is also room to go higher. The same applies from a trend point of view – and certainly from a Korean point of view.

An ongoing stand-off out east could cause another $30 surge from here. Speculative interest could grow. And this whole thing could run out of steam in a few weeks’ time close at the 2016 highs. That would make my buy-in-July-sell-in-the-autumn call look like genius.

Then again, we might be near $1,450 before speculative interest gets to the scary 55% mark. And that would make for a nice higher high, within a new price-definable bull market.

Finally, on the downside for gold (and the upside for the rest of us), this whole Korean thing could blow over, and with it, this summer’s renewed interest in gold.

I’m hedging my bets as you can guess. My inner trader says take some money off the table now, and leave a bit to ride out the next few weeks. What happens in Korea defines where we go next.

My inner investor, however, says own gold.

Fiat money is doomed. It’s just a matter of time before gold comes good again. But don’t expect to be a millionaire by tomorrow.

From Money Week

News and Commentary

Gold retreats from 1-year high as dollar gains ground (Reuters.com)

Asia Stocks Rise, Dollar Rebounds as Irma Weakens (Bloomberg.com)

Weakening but still potent Irma aims full force at Florida’s Gulf Coast (Reuters.com)

Hurricane Irma Makes Florida Landfall as $200 Billion Threat (Bloomberg.com)

Venezuela’s Maduro says will shun U.S. dollar in favor of yuan, other currencies (Reuters.com)

Source: Bloomberg

Gold Trading Volumes Hit Record High As Dollar Crashes (ZeroHedge.com)

Here Is The Real Reason Why Draghi Won’t Provide Any Details Today – Blain (ZeroHedge.com)

Eight Silver Bullion Banks Against The World (SilverSeek.com)

Trust issues? China targets a $3 trillion shadow banking industry (Reuters.com)

Gold’s winning streak will continue in long term – Frisby (MoneyWeek.com)

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

11 Sep: USD 1,338.75, GBP 1,015.31 & EUR 1,114.24 per ounce
08 Sep: USD 1,350.90, GBP 1,026.82 & EUR 1,120.71 per ounce
07 Sep: USD 1,340.45, GBP 1,026.52 & EUR 1,119.54 per ounce
06 Sep: USD 1,340.15, GBP 1,028.03 & EUR 1,122.11 per ounce
05 Sep: USD 1,331.15, GBP 1,029.51 & EUR 1,120.43 per ounce
04 Sep: USD 1,334.60, GBP 1,030.98 & EUR 1,120.53 per ounce
01 Sep: USD 1,318.40, GBP 1,020.18 & EUR 1,107.98 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

11 Sep: USD 17.85, GBP 13.51 & EUR 14.86 per ounce
08 Sep: USD 18.21, GBP 13.80 & EUR 15.09 per ounce
07 Sep: USD 17.79, GBP 13.59 & EUR 14.85 per ounce
06 Sep: USD 17.77, GBP 13.62 & EUR 14.90 per ounce
05 Sep: USD 17.88, GBP 13.80 & EUR 15.03 per ounce
04 Sep: USD 17.80, GBP 13.75 & EUR 14.95 per ounce
01 Sep: USD 17.50, GBP 13.53 & EUR 14.69 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– Conor McGregor – Worth His Weight In Gold?
– Gold Has 2% Weekly Gain,18% Higher YTD – Trump’s Debt Ceiling Deal Hurts Dollar
– ‘Things Have Been Going Up For Too Long’ – Goldman CEO
– Physical Gold In Vault Is “True Hedge of Last Resort” – Goldman Sachs
– Bitcoin Falls 20% as Mobius and Chinese Regulators Warn
– Gold Surges To $1338 as U.S. Warns of ‘Massive’ Military Response
– Precious Metals Outperform Markets In August – Gold +4%, Silver +5%
– 4 Reasons Why “Gold Has Entered A New Bull Market” – Schroders
– Gold Reset To $10,000/oz Coming “By January 1, 2018” – Rickards
– Gold Surges 2.6% After Jackson Hole and N. Korean Missile
– Diversify Into Gold On U.S. “Political Instability” Advise Blackrock
– Trump Presidency Is Over – Bannon Is Right
– The Truth About Bundesbank Repatriation of Gold From U.S

end

British People Suddenly Stopped Buying Cars

– British people suddenly stopped buying cars
– Massive debt including car loans, very low household savings
– Brexit and decline in sterling and consumer confidence impacts
– New cars being bought on PCP by people who could not normally afford them
– UK car business has ‘exactly the same problems’ as the mortgage market 10 years ago, according to Morgan Stanley
– Bank of England is investigating to make sure UK banks are not overly exposed…
– Prudent British people buying gold with cash, not cars with debt

by Jim Edwards, Business Insider UK

Vehicle Sales In UK – Barclays via Business Insider

British people have suddenly stopped buying cars.

It’s not clear why. But a number of anti-car trends have hit Britain simultaneously — such as the rise of Uber and a decline in household savings — driving down car sales.

The chart above of total car sales both old and new, from Barclays, says it all. On this chart, the grey-black line is the crucial one. The blue line (online sales) represents only a small number of purchases. Barclays

Here’s what new car registrations look like:

Pantheon Macroeconomics via Business Insider

The prices of used/second-hand diesel cars has been particularly hard hit. On average, diesel prices are down 5.74% according to the sales site Motorway.co.uk.

Some diesel models are so unpopular that they’re trading at a 26.31% price decline.

The Motorway.co.uk data cover a recent sample of 24,000 used cars valuations of the 10 most popular cars in the UK. This year has already been a total shocker for diesel owners.

And now that most major manufacturers have launched diesel scrappage schemes, it doesn’t look like it’s about to get any better. Diesel cars are really starting to look like white elephants,” Alex Buttle, director of Motorway.co.uk, said in a press release.

A number of factors are colliding simultaneously to hurt UK car sales:

– The rise of apps like Uber, Gett, and Lyft are making car ownership in urban areas less necessary.

– British people have a close to zero household savings rate, and way too much debt, making further car purchases difficult.

– Consumers are afraid a recession might be coming and have reduced their spending on expensive items.

– The PCP car loan trend may have peaked, flooding the market with nearly new used cars.

– A number of car manufacturers are offering “diesel scrappage schemes” in which they take your old diesel car if you trade in for a newer, cleaner vehicle.

– The government announced it would ban sales of all petrol and diesel cars by 2040.

UK car sales are especially vulnerable to fluctuations in demand because Britain’s excess right-hand drive cars cannot be shipped to other areas of Europe, which use left-hand drive models.

Four out of five new cars in Britain today are bought using a credit product that has “exactly the same problems … that happened with the mortgage market” 10 years ago, Morgan Stanley automotive analyst Harald Hendrikse tells Business Insider.

He believes the current state of car credit in the UK — £41 billion ($54 billion) in loans last year — is unsustainable.

“If you’re a lease company or, a finance company, you would potentially have to take very large losses to try and get rid of those cars from your balance sheet.”

The Bank of England is investigating to make sure UK banks are not overly exposed.

Full Articles on Business Insider UK here and here

News and Commentary

Gold eases as risk appetite grows, equities strengthen (Reuters.com)

Nikkei hits best intraday level in a month as Asian markets extend gains (MarketWatch.com)

China’s bitcoin-exchange ban puts digital currencies under pressure (MarketWatch.com)

Treasury yields climb as hurricane, North Korea fears ease (MarketWatch.com)

Storm Irma brings fresh flooding to Florida after hammering Keys (Reuters.com)

British people have suddenly stopped buying cars (BusinessInsider.com)

How to fix our failing high streets (MoneyWeek.com)

Forget Tulips & Bitcoin – Here’s The Real Bubble (ZeroHedge.com)

The Sandcastle: Decline From Democracy To Tyranny Is Inevitable (InternationalMan.com)

This is the solution to home country bias (StansBerryChurcHouse.com)

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

12 Sep: USD 1,326.25, GBP 1,000.66 & EUR 1,109.41 per ounce
11 Sep: USD 1,338.75, GBP 1,015.31 & EUR 1,114.24 per ounce
08 Sep: USD 1,350.90, GBP 1,026.82 & EUR 1,120.71 per ounce
07 Sep: USD 1,340.45, GBP 1,026.52 & EUR 1,119.54 per ounce
06 Sep: USD 1,340.15, GBP 1,028.03 & EUR 1,122.11 per ounce
05 Sep: USD 1,331.15, GBP 1,029.51 & EUR 1,120.43 per ounce
04 Sep: USD 1,334.60, GBP 1,030.98 & EUR 1,120.53 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

12 Sep: USD 17.75, GBP 13.37 & EUR 14.87 per ounce
11 Sep: USD 17.85, GBP 13.51 & EUR 14.86 per ounce
08 Sep: USD 18.21, GBP 13.80 & EUR 15.09 per ounce
07 Sep: USD 17.79, GBP 13.59 & EUR 14.85 per ounce
06 Sep: USD 17.77, GBP 13.62 & EUR 14.90 per ounce
05 Sep: USD 17.88, GBP 13.80 & EUR 15.03 per ounce
04 Sep: USD 17.80, GBP 13.75 & EUR 14.95 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– Buy Gold for Long Term as “Fiat Money Is Doomed”
– Conor McGregor – Worth His Weight In Gold?
– Gold Has 2% Weekly Gain,18% Higher YTD – Trump’s Debt Ceiling Deal Hurts Dollar
– ‘Things Have Been Going Up For Too Long’ – Goldman CEO
– Physical Gold In Vault Is “True Hedge of Last Resort” – Goldman Sachs
– Bitcoin Falls 20% as Mobius and Chinese Regulators Warn
– Gold Surges To $1338 as U.S. Warns of ‘Massive’ Military Response
– Precious Metals Outperform Markets In August – Gold +4%, Silver +5%
– 4 Reasons Why “Gold Has Entered A New Bull Market” – Schroders
– Gold Reset To $10,000/oz Coming “By January 1, 2018” – Rickards
– Gold Surges 2.6% After Jackson Hole and N. Korean Missile
– Diversify Into Gold On U.S. “Political Instability” Advise Blackrock
– Trump Presidency Is Over – Bannon Is Right

END

Local exchanges deny any crackdown report

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

Chinese Bitcoin Trading Soars As Local Exchanges Deny Crackdown Reports

As we noted earlier, bitcoin has been unable to meaningfully reverse the drop that followed reports that Chinese authorities were planning to shut down local digital currency exchanges as part of a crackdown on ICOs. The news, which first surfaced in China’s state-owned Caixin media network, which presumably has sources deep within the Chinese government, sending bitcoin spiraling lower as investors feared that 23% of the market’s overall trading volume might soon evaporate.

Yet, days later, the country’s largest digital-currency exchanges say they’ve heard nothing from Chinese authorities.

And in another development that will certainly have market participants scratching their heads, the daily trading volume of the Chinese bitcoin exchange market has suddenly surged to nearly double that of the US market. For the first time since November 2016, the Chinese market even briefly overtook the US in terms of market share, as cryptocurrency news points out.

However, unlike in past instances when Chinese volume overtook the US, bitcoin in China continued to trade at about a $200 discount to US-traded pairs. The premium persisted for years, until the imposition of strict regulations and policies on bitcoin trading platforms in 2016. It has since shifted to other markets, like Japan and – even more notably – South Korea.

Bitcoin Price in USD

Bitcoin Price CNY:

The spike in volume triggered a surge in price, as the Chinese market rose by more than 9% on day when bitcoin prices trading in the US, Japan and SK were largely flat.

And perhaps because the initial reports stipulated that peer-to-peer bitcoin trading wouldn’t be affected by the crackdown, the Chinese over-the-counter and peer-to-peer bitcoin markets such as LocalBitcoins has also increased over the past two weeks, as Cryptocoins News points out.

For their part, the exchanges believe the ban will not be carried out…

“Huobi, OKCoin and BTCC, the three leading bitcoin exchanges in China, have all stated that they do not believe the ban will be approved and are not even sure if it is the actual plan of PBoC. The three companies reassured their clients that they have not received any directives from PBoC and that they are willing to comply with any requests from the Chinese government and its financial regulators.”

Hu Bing, a researcher at the Institute of Finance and Banking, a Chinese government-supported academic research organization, said recently that any ban would be temporary.

“The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and its Institute of Finance and Banking are affiliated with the State Council of the People’s Republic of China, the chief administrative authority of the People’s Republic of China. The Chinese Institute of Finance and its researchers are considered to be a government institution and government officials.

 

In his interview with CCTV translated by Box Mining, Bing explained that the suspension on ICOs and the government’s declaration of ICOs as an illegal fundraising method are only temporary, until local financial regulators introduce necessary regulatory frameworks and policies for both ICO investors and projects.

 

More importantly, Bing emphasized that the Chinese cryptocurrency community must understand that the government has not “forbidden” ICOs but instead “paused” them, demonstrating the government’s intention to resume ICOs in the near future. Bing also noted that the Chinese government and its financial regulators are currently considering the potential of allowing ICOs to raise money in a controlled environment, through a licensing program.”

Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov  clarified that banning digital currencies would make no sense, adding that his country’s government would develop a plan to regulate them this afternoon.

end
However Bitcoin tumbles after Jamie Dimon considers the currency a fraud: and he would fire anyone trading in it.
I guess Dimon agrees with me: all cryptocurrencies (except the one that will be backed by gold and silver) will go to their intrinsic value and that value is zero!
(courtesy zero hedge)

Bitcoin Tumbles After Jamie Dimon Calls It A Fraud: “Would Fire Anyone Trading It”

Surprised by the sudden air pocket below bitcoin? Curious if this was caused by some new, unconfirmed Chinese crackdown on bitcoin traders, exchanges, and other money launderers?

No, the answer is Jamie Dimon, who in an angry outburst during the same conference in which he preannounced JPM’s 20% trading revenue drop, lashed out at the cryptocurrency, calling it a “fraud” which is “worse than tulip bulbs. It won’t end well”, will “blow up” and “someone is going to get killed.” Oh, and in conclusion, “any trader trading bitcoin” will be “fired for being stupid.

  • DIMON: BITCOIN IS A “FRAUD”; “WORSE THAN TULIP BULBS”
  • DIMON: BITCOIN WILL EVENTUALLY BLOW UP
  • DIMON: BITCOIN WON’T END WELL
  • DIMON: WOULD FIRE ANY TRADER TRADING BITCOIN FOR BEING STUPID

So how does Jamie really feel?

Of course, if “a trader” bought $100,000 of Bitcoin in 2010, they’d be roughly 3x richer than billionaire Jamie, but that’s another story.

What is more surprising, is that bitcoin actually reacted to this angry outburst by the JPM CEO, sliding sharply, and dragging the entire cryptocurrency space with it.

Or perhaps not surprising at all as hundreds of JPM traders quietly liquidated their accounts moments after hearing Dimon’s threat…

Curiously, as Bitcoin sold off, gold finally saw a modest bid:

As for Dimon’s personal vendetta with the digital currency, one twitter commentator said it best:

BTC bulls: proof that “we” are a threat to the establishment + Gandhi quote
BTC bears: see? https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/907662714083921920 

What is ironic is that this is not the first time Jamie Dimon has lashed out at bitcoin: the last time Dimon slammed bitcoin was November 2015, at the Fortune Global Forum in San Francisco. Here’s what he had to say when asked directly about it by an audience member:

“You’re wasting your time with Bitcoin! Virtual currency, where it’s called a bitcoin vs. a U.S. dollar, that’s going to be stopped,” said Dimon. “No government will ever support a virtual currency that goes around borders and doesn’t have the same controls. It’s not going to happen.”

 

“Blockchain is like any other technology. If it is cheaper, effective, works, and secure, then we are going to use it. The technology will be used, and it could be used to transport currency, but it will be dollars, not bitcoins.”

For those who “wasted their time” since Dimon’s threat, Bitcoin is up 1,018%.

 end
You will recall that Andrew Maguire told us that Goldman Sachs has gone to the buy side in gold.  Here is Benjamin Smith commenting on how one must own physical gold and it it the true hedge of last resort
(courtesy Benjamin Smith/Lombardiletter.com/)

Goldman Sachs: Physical Gold Is the “True Hedge of Last Resort”By Benjamin A. Smith | September 11th, 2017 _ 

Credit:iStock.com/PhonlamaiPhoto

Goldman Sachs Admits There’s Nothing Better than Physical Gold in a Crisis

You probably didn’t hear it on CNBC or your local business news source, but physical gold just received its ultimate validation. None other than Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS) endorsed gold as the “true hedge of last resort,” validating what precious metals enthusiasts have always known.

Why is this important? Because Goldman Sachs is known to be among the most perma-bear investment banks on Wall Street when it comes to gold. They rarely have anything good to say about it. Their forecasts are usually on the low end of analysts’ estimates, and often straight-up outliers.

For example, in the first quarter of 2016, Goldman Sachs predicted that the sharp gold rally occurring at the time would fizzle out. But their bearishness didn’t stop there. They put out a $1,000/oz end-of-year target, despite the fact that gold was trading close to $1,300/oz, up 19% from the the November 2015 lows. Gold finished 2016 at over $1,160/oz.

Back in September 2013,Goldman Sachs said that gold may drop below $1,000/oz, a level last reached in 2009. Of course, we all know that never ended up happening. (Source: “Gold could drop below US$1,000 for first time in 4 years: Goldman Sachs,” Financial Post, September 13, 2013).

content/uploads/2017/07/goldrecession.jpgIn 2009, Goldman became surprisingly bearish on gold and silver just as the Federal Reserve was slashing interest rates and blowing up their balance sheet. They slapped both three-month and 12-month price targets of $960.00/oz for the king metal. (Source: “Goldman Loves Natural Gas, But It’s Surprisingly Bearish On Silver And Gold,” Business Insider, November 3, 2009).

Not only did Goldman Sachs’ target completely miss the mark, gold prices almost doubled in a vertical move that ended two years later, well north of $1,950/oz. It was another dismal gold prognostication for one of Wall Street’s premium investment banks.

Goldman Sachs Singles Out Gold

The thing that caught my eye was that Goldman Sachs specifically chose to single out physical gold as the “true hedge of last resort.” This is important as much for what was omitted than the endorsement itself. (Source: “ Using Gold To Hedge Korea Nuclear War Risk? This Is How To Do It, According To Goldman,” Zero Hedge,September 5, 2017).

After all, Goldman Sachs could have proclaimed alternative assets like Bitcoin as superior hedges. In some circles, Bitcoin is known as “digital gold.” Indeed, it has performed exceedingly well over the past couple years, with its biggest gains often coming on days of turmoil or excess volatility.

For example, Bitcoin jumped nine percent a day after U.K. voters voted to exit the European Union (EU). Meanwhile, the British pound lost about eight percent on the affirmative “Brexit” vote, which coincided with the last period that the S&P 500 experienced its last stock market correction. In other words, it was Bitcoin, not the British pound or equities, that became the best fear hedge for this volatile event. Bitcoin’s performance also outdid gold, which only gained marginally.

In the end, it is physical gold that has earned Goldman Sachs’ ultimate respect. That’s quite significant, and something that all investors should ponder before the next crisis hits.

https://www.lombardiletter.com/goldman-sachs-physical- gold-true-hedge-last-resort/16334/

-END-



Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight

 
 

1 Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/yuan MUCH WEAKER 6.5360 (REVALUATION SOUTHBOUND   /OFFSHORE YUAN MOVES SLIGHTLY WEAKER TO ONSHORE AT   6.5426/ Shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 3.06 POINTS OR 0.09%  / HANG SANG CLOSED UP 17.11 POINTS OR 0.06% 

2. Nikkei closed UP 230.85 POINTS OR 1.18%    /USA: YEN RISES TO 109.82

3. Europe stocks OPENED MOSTLY IN THE GREEN     ( /USA dollar index FALLS TO  91.85 /Euro DOWN to 1.1937

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES  TO  -+.020%/ GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION    !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 108.87/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD FINALLY IN THE POSITIVE/BANK OF JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR YIELD CURVE AS THEY PURCHASE ALL BONDS TO GET TO ZERO RATE!!

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI::  47.83 and Brent: 53.83

3f Gold DOWN/Yen DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS  AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DWON for Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO  +.371%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN  to 1.986%    

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO  : 5.4620???  

3k Gold at $1324.40  silver at:17.77 (8:15 am est)   SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50 

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 29/100 in  roubles/dollar) 57.51-

3m oil into the 47 dollar handle for WTI and 53 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation  (already upon us). This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/China forced to do QE!! as it lowers its yuan value to the dollar/GOT A FAIR SIZED DEVALUATION SOUTHBOUND 

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.82 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning  0.9593 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1455 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017 

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to  +0.371%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”.  Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.155% early this morning. Thirty year rate  at 2.759% /POLICY ERROR)GETTING DANGEROUSLY HIGH

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)

World Stocks Hit Fresh Record High As Irma, Korea Rally Continues; Pounds Surges

World stocks hit new record highs on Tuesday amid a continuation of Monday’s risk-on theme which unleashed a dramatic relief rally on easing North Korea tensions and signs that Hurricane Irma caused less damage than feared (which according to Keynesians should be GDP negative). The MSCI All-Country World Index gained 0.2%, hitting the highest on record with a fifth consecutive advance.

European equities headed for the longest winning streak in five months while S&P 500 futures extended on Monday’s record high, pointing to another all time high open. Meanwhile, the dollar struggled to build on a strong start to the week as concerns about lackluster inflation lingered before key U.S. data.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index gained for a fifth day, the longest run since April, up 0.6% hitting the highest level in 5 weeks, as the technology sector joined in the rally ahead of Apple iPhone unveiling later on Tuesday. Chip makers STMicroelectronics N.V. and Infineon Technologies AG were among big gainers, while the insurer index gained a further 0.3%, as insured property losses from Hurricane Irma’s are expected to be smaller than initially forecast.

S&P index futures also rose as North Korea stayed silent – for now – in the face of another round of sanctions. As Bloomberg puts it well“the appetite for riskier assets that took hold on Monday was sustained more by a lack of bad news than any positive catalysts.”  So far there have been no further provocative developments from North Korea after the UN Security Council approved a watered-down proposal to punish the nation for its latest missile and nuclear tests. Meanwhile, Hurricane Irma damage estimates were revised sharply lower (remember when the worse the hurricane, the better for GDP? Apparently for stocks, no matter what the hurricane outcome, it’s all good). With a flat greenback, bonds across Europe followed Treasuries lower.

“The absence of walking into any North Korea-related headlines, the general feeling that the worst-case scenario from Hurricane Irma was avoided and with the more significant economic data reserved for later in the week too, markets seem to have breathed a collective big sigh of relief,” strategists including Craig Nicol at Deutsche Bank AG wrote in a note to clients.

In overnight geopolitical developments, Japan’s Defense Minister Onodera said Japan cannot rule out possibility of further provocation by North Korea and will stay on alert. Shortly prior, the UN Security Council unanimously voted to increase sanctions against North Korea, albeit substantially watered down from the original version proposed by the US and excluding an oil embargo or asset freezes of the government. The US Ambassador to the UN Haley said the US is willing to act alone to stop North Korea’s nuclear programme and that half-measures have not worked. There were also comments from South Korea which later stated that North Korea is technically ready for a nuclear test.

British consumer price inflation came in stronger than expected at 2.9 percent, offering more clues as to the Bank of England’s policy decision on Thursday, and sending the pound to the highest level against the USD, as cable rose as high as 1.328. The BOE has been struggling to keep inflation at 2 percent since sterling tumbled in response to Britain voting to leave the European Union in June 2016, pressuring on consumer spending and living standards (more below).

Asia, too, was green across the board: Japan’s Topix index advanced 0.9 percent at the close in Tokyo. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index added 0.6 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index rose 0.3 percent. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong and gauges in China fluctuated. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.4 percent. The Japanese yen fell 0.3 percent to 109.74 per dollar, the weakest in more than a week.

The dollar failed to maintain momentum after Monday’s 0.6 percent gain, with market focus turning to whether U.S. consumer-price data due Thursday has the potential to improve the greenback’s allure. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index swung between gains and losses as investors unwound risk-off positions, while the pound rallied on the back of faster-than-estimated U.K. inflation. Sterling rose to $1.3282, its highest level in a year, as data showed annual core inflation in Britain accelerated to 2.7 percent in August, the most since 2011. Profit-taking in euro-pound longs also helped cable push above the August highs, according to currency traders in Europe and London.

The strong U.K. data spurred an immediate repricing of Bank of England rate-increase odds. Based on MPC-dated overnight index swap rates, chances of a 25 basis point hike by the end of year have risen to 33 percent from 24 percent Monday. A tightening is fully priced in by end of summer next year. Risks are now skewed toward a hawkish shift in the BOE Monetary Policy Committee vote on Thursday, with more than two members now pushing for a rate increase, providing more support for the pound.

Over in China, the onshore yuan slumps by the most in six months against a trade-weighted currency basket amid a weaker central bank fixing and a dollar surge overnight. The Bloomberg replica of the CFETS RMB Index slumped 0.44%, the biggest drop since March 16, to 94.9385, just two days after reaching this year’s high on Monday. On Tuesday, the PBOC weakened its daily reference rate by 0.43%, the most since Jan. 9 and the first cut in 12 days, to 6.5277 per dollar. The fixing was weaker than the 6.5245 average of estimates from 18 traders and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, and followed on Friday’s aggressive attempt by the PBOC to reignite volatility by invitine shorters into the currency after it cut reserve requirements from 20% to 0%.

Brent traded near $53.50/bbl; Bloomberg reports that OPEC output fell in August. OPEC’s estimate of its oil production, compiled from four of six external data sets known as secondary sources, fell to 30.004m b/d excluding output from Libya and Nigeria, according to a person familiar with the matter; down from 30.113m b/d in July. At the same time, Saudi Arabia reportedly told OPEC it pumped 9.95m b/d of oil in August, down from 10.01m b/d in July. The data contrast with OPEC’s internal ests, which show Saudi Arabia pumped 10.022m b/d in August vs 10.049m b/d in July, according to information compiled from four of six secondary sources.

“The OPEC monthly report is coming out later and that should set some kind of direction to the market,” says Tamas Varga, analyst at PVM Oil Associates. “Yesterday we saw the WTI-Brent arbitrage strengthening, it has been so weak that it’s inevitable that at some point people are going to find U.S. crude so cheap that it will reverse”

Elsewhere, safe-haven assets such as U.S. Treasuries and gold gave back most of recent gains. The 10Y Treasury yield jumped to 2.1515% from 2.1250%, the highest in a week. Germany’s 10-year yield gained three basis points to 0.37 percent, the highest in a week. Britain’s 10-year yield rose three basis points to 1.076 percent, the highest in almost three weeks. Gold dropped to $1,326.31 per ounce, compared to Friday’s one-year peak of $1,357.4.

Key events on today’s calendar include the JOLTS job openings, NFIB small business optimism report, U.S. 10-year auction.

Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk:

  • GBP rallies, as CPI & RPI beats put focus on the MPC
  • In politics, UK Parliament passed the Brexit Bill and Norway’s ruling centre-right government won re-election
  • Looking ahead, highlights include potential comments from ECB’s Constancio and a US 10yr Auction

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 2,490.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.5% to 381.49
  • MSCI Asia up 0.3% to 162.84
  • MSCI Asia ex Japan up 0.4% to 538.95
  • Nikkei up 1.2% to 19,776.62
  • Topix up 0.9% to 1,627.45
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.06% to 27,972.24
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.09% to 3,379.49
  • Sensex up 0.6% to 32,080.00
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.6% to 5,746.44
  • Kospi up 0.3% to 2,365.47
  • German 10Y yield rose 2.6 bps to 0.362%
  • Euro up 0.04% to $1.1958
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 0.9 bps to 1.677%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 2.7 bps to 1.593%
  • Brent Futures down 0.5% to $53.57/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.09% to $1,326.28
  • U.S. Dollar Index unchanged at 91.88

Top Overnight News

  • President Donald Trump plans an aggressive travel schedule, taking him to as many as 13 states over the next seven weeks, to sell the idea of a tax overhaul as the administration tries to avoid repeating the communication failures of its attempt to repeal Obamacare
  • Florida’s ports re-open after Irma, but feeding gas stations could take days and restoring power also is a challenge in getting gas to consumers
  • Investors may pile into Treasuries and gilts at the expense of Japanese and Chinese debt if a proposal by the world’s biggest wealth fund is implemented
  • Hedge funds are less interested in shorting China after being wrong in predicting a sharp devaluation, a credit crisis and an economic hard landing
  • UN Votes New North Korea Sanctions Short of an Oil Embargo
  • Toshiba Board Is Said to Aim for Chip Sale Decision Wednesday
  • Equifax’s Seismic Breach Tests Trump Pledge to Dismantle Rules
  • CBOE Plans to Introduce Options on S&P Select Sector Indexes
  • U.K. Inflation Accelerates More Than Forecast to Reach 2.9%
  • $150 Billion Misfire: How Forecasters Got Irma Damage So Wrong
  • In Dismal Summer, ‘Despicable Me 3’ Producer Delivers $1 Billion
  • SoFi CEO Cagney to Step Down by Year End; Co. Seeks Successor
  • FPL Says Much of SW Florida Electric System Will Need Rebuild
  • Delta Says 1,100 Flights Canceled at Atlanta on Irma Effects
  • U.K. Will Offer Troops to Support EU Operations After Brexit
  • Li Upbeat on China Economy as Lagarde Cites Push to Curb Risk

Asian markets traded mostly higher on positive momentum from the reduced North Korean concerns, which also followed a strong performance on Wall St where the S&P 500 closed at a fresh record level. ASX 200 (+0.7%) and Nikkei 225 (+1.2%) gained as financials mirrored the outperformance in their counterparts stateside where lower estimates of hurricane damages and rising yields buoyed the sector, while JPY weakness remained the driver for Japanese exporter sentiment. Conversely, Shanghai Comp. (+0.1%) and Hang Seng (Unch.) were less exuberant after the PBoC refrained from liquidity operations again and after the Hong Kong benchmark index met resistance around the 28,000 level. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lower as 10yr yields rose by the most YTD alongside increases in global yields, with demand for bonds also dampened by the positive risk tone and after a 5yr auction where the b/c declined and tail in price widened from prior. PBoC refrained from open market operations again today.
PBoC set CNY mid-point at 6.5277 vs Prev. 6.4997, biggest fixing drop since January. Chinese Premier Li says China’s economy will continue maintain trend seen in H1, adds China will not boost exports through CNY depreciation.

Top Asian News

  • Hong Kong Finance Chief Warns Again of Property Risk as Fed Acts
  • Star Stock Geely Soars Most in Month on Market Sentiment Boost
  • China’s Banks Are Leading Globalization Charge, McKinsey Says
  • Hedge Funds Used to Love Shorting China. Now, Not So Much

European equity markets also traded in the green across the board with Stoxx 600 sectors following the theme, as financials lead the way. UK home builders have struggled however, and underperform, likely weighed on after a report in the Times suggested that the chronic housing shortage is being made worse by the reluctance of banks to lend to small housebuilders, the Federation of Master Builders has claimed. Bunds underperform, leading the middle of the curve, as investors unwind safe haven flows. The Bund now trades around 162.40, with the next support to look-out for being 162.22. Gilts do trade slightly better than Bunds, however, the Gilt bears did catch up following the beats in UK CPI and RPI data. Gilts now trade through September lows, with the BoE possibly looking at a hawkish tilt on Thursday.

Top European News

  • Norway PM Wins Second Term as Insurgency Against Oil Fizzles
  • Swedbank Plans Two-Tiered FICC Research Offering After MiFID II
  • Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate Falls to Lowest Since 2012
  • U.K. Builders Fall; BofAML Sees Multiple Risks, Full Valuations

In currencies, morning FX volatility has largely been based on data: the UK beat across the board, with EUR/GBP now hitting one-month lows, as the inflation figures could lead the BoE to be more forceful in realigning market forecasts with their own when it comes to rate hike expectations. The stronger data, supported by some form of Brexit direction clarity, has helped sterling find a bid through the European morning. Elsewhere, only a slight miss from Sweden helped some SEK bulls, with many pricing in a bad report, following Norway’s misses yesterday and inflation also remaining above the Riksbank’s target. EUR/SEK fell from 9.5820, to print lows around 9.5440. Political news also caused some early volatility; as the latest Newshub poll showed a lead for the National Party vs. Labour in New Zealand, the details of the poll have the Greens now under the 5% threshold required to enter Parliament without the security of an electoral seat win. The lack of power from the Greens will lead to Labour not being able to form a coalition, leaving the national party with a 61 seat majority.

In commodities, WTI and Brent saw some bearish pressure, as bulls failed to test yesterday’s high. Fundamentally, US refineries are restarting following the shutdowns caused by Hurricane Harvey, however, with restarts historically dangerous, operators did keep the shutdowns to a minimum. Precious metals continue to highlight metal markets, as the risk tone has picked up this week, the fail to fill Monday’s gap could  be an indication of a strong bearish trend in Gold, which trades back within August’s range. OPEC figures show that the cartel’s August output has fallen to 30mln bpd, according to sources.

On today’s calendar, there is the NFIB small business confidence reading and July JOLTS job openings. Away from the data, China Premier Li Keqiang will host an economic roundtable in Beijing that will include heads of IMF, the World Bank and WTO.

US Event Calendar

  • 6am: NFIB Small Business Optimism, 105.30, est. 104.8, prior 105.2
  • 10am: JOLTS Job Openings, est. 6,000, prior 6,163

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Yesterday felt a bit like a no-news-is-good-news-day for markets. Indeed, the absence of walking into any North Korea related headlines was part of the story, while the general feeling that the worst-case scenario from Hurricane Irma was avoided also played a big role. With the more significant economic data reserved for later in the week too, markets seem to have breathed a collective big sigh of relief with the S&P 500 (+1.08%) rallying to another all-time high after rising by the most in a single session since April. The Dow (+1.19%) and Nasdaq (+1.13%) are just off their respective record levels, while prior to this in Europe the Stoxx 600 had closed +1.04% for its best day since mid-August.

Meanwhile, after flirting with a 1% handle last week, 10y Treasury yields jumped +8.0bps yesterday to close at 2.131% and finish what was the weakest session since late July. The stronger than expected China inflation data probably impacted at the margin too but as we said yesterday it feels like the bigger test for rates will come this Thursday with the August CPI report. Meanwhile bond markets in Europe finished anywhere from +1bp to +6bps higher in yield, with interestingly Italy outperforming although it wasn’t obvious what was driving that. Elsewhere, in further evidence of a classic risk-on session two of the bigger underperforming currencies were the Swiss Franc (-1.27%) and Yen (-1.42%), while Gold also tumbled -1.41%. WTI Oil rose +1.24% as OPEC members voiced support for a possible extension of production cuts.

Just after the close of the US session last night, the UN Security Council voted unanimously for a watered down version of sanctions on North Korea, which does not include an oil embargo. The resolution passed seeks to cut imports of refined petroleum products to 2 million barrels per annum and ban textile exports, but does not include the more stringent oil embargo, likely reflecting the lack of support from China and Russia. We are yet to have heard a response from North Korea post the decision. One would have to imagine that the outcome helps nearterm sentiment insofar as not antagonizing China, but the reality is that it still doesn’t come closer to solving much.

This morning in Asia, markets have largely followed the lead from the US and are trading broadly higher as we go to print, with the Nikkei (+1.01%), ASX 200 (+0.87%), Kospi (+0.12%) and Shanghai Comp (+0.07%) firmer. The Hang Seng is currently flat. US equity futures are also little changed while bond markets in Asia are weaker.

Staying in Asia, yesterday our China Chief Economist Zhiwei Zhang published a report previewing the 19th National Congress meeting from October 18th. Zhiwei notes that this week-long event kicks off a six-month process that continues with the Central Economic Working Conference (CEWC) in December and the National People’s Congress (NPC) in March next year. He notes that the event is more about politics than setting economic policies, as the representatives will elect a group of leaders. Based on the age rule, five of seven incumbent members of the Politburo should retire as they are older than 67. Other important things to look out for include the CEWC setting GDP growth targets, while finally, the NPC will see a reshuffle of cabinet ministers and government posts. Overall, Zhiwei expects no substantial change in policy over the next six months, although the central government may slow fiscal spending a bit and the focus will turn to whether China may push for more deleveraging and structural reforms.

Moving on. Following on from China’s better than expected inflation report the early focus in Europe yesterday was on the mixed August CPI reports out of Norway and Denmark. Norway disappointed with underlying CPI falling a fair bit more than expected (-0.9% mom vs. -0.4% expected) however Denmark then bettered expectations after coming in at -0.3% mom versus expectations for a bigger -0.5% decline. As a reminder, today we’ve got a bunch more inflation reports including Sweden first thing this morning, followed by the UK and then Portugal.

Staying in Europe, there was a steady slate of comments from ECB board members yesterday. The early comments came from Benoit Coeure. Initially the headlines appeared fairly negative, warning that persistent gains in the euro may weigh on inflation, however the details of his comments revealed Coeure highlighting that the pass-through impact of the currency appreciation has declined as a result of a stronger economy and therefore any future impact is more limited on inflation. Later on, the ECB’s Ardo Hansson highlighted that “inflation rates have been gradually increasing” while fellow board member Sabine Lautenschlaeger said that “conditions are in place for inflation to pick up and move steadily towards our goal”.

Elsewhere at the ECB, it was interesting to note the El Mundo report yesterday suggesting that the German government wants Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann to replace ECB President Mario Draghi when he steps down in October 2019. The article also suggested that a representative from Southern Europe as Vice-President would be nominated to keep the balance (Spain’s Economy Minister being highlighted). Weidmann has held relatively extreme and vocal views on ECB policy so it’s hard to know if this would improve his case across the wider Eurozone. Anyhow, this is still reasonably far off for now with a decision not due to be made until June 2019.

Moving onto the latest on Brexit. Following a vote early this morning, PM May’s repeal bill secured enough votes (326-290) in the House of Commons to pass the first hurdle which would allow the UK government to copy EU law onto the domestic statute book. However, the real challenge will be how many amendments are made over the next eight days as Parliament debate the bill further. One such debate includes allowing ministers to make changes to existing laws, but bypass the normal scrutiny by parliament.

Before we take a look at today’s calendar, in terms of the remaining data yesterday, in Italy July industrial production was above market at +0.1% mom (vs. -0.4% expected). This, coupled with solid gains in the preceding two months, has led to annual growth of +4.4% yoy (vs. +3.7% expected). In France, the business industry sentiment index was slightly lower than expectations at 104 (vs. 106 expected), but remains consistent with annual GDP growth of c.2% yoy. There was no data released in the US yesterday.

Looking at the day ahead, in the UK, we have August CPI (+0.5% mom expected), PPI (+0.1% mom expected) and RPI (+0.5% mom expected). Across Europe, France’s 2Q total payrolls and Italy’s 2Q unemployment rate are also due. Over in the US, there is the NFIB small business confidence reading and July JOLTS job openings. Away from the data, China Premier Li Keqiang will host an economic roundtable in Beijing that will include heads of IMF, the World Bank and WTO.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late SUNDAY night/MONDAY morning: Shanghai closed UP 3.06 POINTS OR 0.09%   / /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 17.11 POINTS OR 0.06%/ The Nikkei closed UP 230.85 POINTS OR 1.18%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.54%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.5360/Oil DOWN to 47.83 dollars per barrel for WTI and 53.83 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN EXCEPT LONDON. Offshore yuan trades  6.5426 yuan to the dollar vs 6.5360 for onshore yuan. NOW THE OFFSHORE MOVED MUCH WEAKER  TO THE ONSHORE YUAN/ ONSHORE YUAN MUCH WEAKER (TO THE DOLLAR)  AND THE OFFSHORE YUAN IS A LOT WEAKER TO THE DOLLAR AND THIS IS COUPLED WITH THE SLIGHTLY  WEAKER DOLLAR. CHINA IS NOT VERY HAPPY TODAY 

3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA/USA

The UN unanimously approves new sanctions against North Korea

(courtesy zerohedge)

United Nations Unanimously Approves New Sanctions On North Korea

The UN Security Council has unanimously voted to step up sanctions on North Korea in retaliation for the country’s recent sixth and most powerful nuclear test. The 15-member Security Council passed the resolution unanimously, with both China and Russia siding with the US against North Korea, which however should not come as a surprise because as previewed this morning, the US drastically watered down its original sanctions proposal, which now excludes Trump’s prior demands for an oil import ban as well as international asset freeze on the government and leader Kim Jong Un, in order to win the support of Moscow and Beijing. This was the ninth sanctions resolution unanimously adopted by the 15-member council since 2006 over North Korea’s ballistic missile and nuclear programs.

Despite the compromises, U.S. Ambassador Nikki Haley said the resolution would cut North Korean exports by 90% and reduce the refined products available to North Korea by 44% and fuel by 30%. “Today we are saying the world will never accept a nuclear armed North Korea,” she said. “This will cut deep.”

Well, not really: the resolution slashes 55% of the country’s gas, diesel and heavy fuel imports, imposing a ban on condensates and natural gas liquids, a cap of 2 million barrels a year on refined petroleum products, and a cap on crude oil imports at current levels, in other words N.Korea’s oil flow remain untouched (as a reminder, China supplies most of North Korea’s crude). According to US officials quoted by Reutrs, North Korea imports some 4.5 million barrels of refined petroleum products annually and 4 million barrels of crude oil.

The new resolution also will impose an embargo on all textile trade and require inspections and monitoring of North Korea’s sea vessels by member states, but doesn’t provide for the use of military force to gain access to the ships.

According to the WSJ, a proposed ban on North Korean foreign workers, a source of an estimated $1 billion in annual revenue to the regime, also was reworded to allow countries to employ North Korean nationals if deemed vital for humanitarian reasons. It also doesn’t apply to workers who hold contracts taking effect before the adoption of the resolution.

Previously, China and Russia – veto-holders on the 15-member Security Council – had voiced opposition to harsher measures and threatened to block the vote if the ban on oil remained. China is reluctant to pressure the North Korean regime to the brink of collapse fearing instability at its border, a flow of refugees and a possible American military presence. Both Russia and China have said they favor direct talks and not sanctions.

Nikki Haley said that the sanctions will target $1.3 billion in North Korea revenue. The US ambassador to the UN added that the “strong relationship between Trump and Xi played a key role in negotiating the new UN sanctions”, or translated: China imposed its terms on the US proposal so that China would note veto the mostly optical measure, to avoid making Trump look weak again in the UN. She also said that the US is “not looking for war” with North Korea, and added that North Korea has not yet “passed the point of no return.” That said, by now it is completely unclear just what would entail passing said “point of no return.”

After a week of intense negotiations, a unanimous Security Council vote against North Korea was viewed as politically more important than a strong U.S. stand that risked division, diplomats said. “Any perception of weakness on the side of the Security Council would only encourage the regime to continue its provocations and objectively create the risk of an increasingly extreme situation,” said France’s Ambassador François Delattre.

Of course, further provocations by the regime at this point remain all too likely. And so, now attention turns to Pyongyang and North Korea’s response: overnight, the state-run KCNA agency unleashed numerous warnings and threats toward the US should the sanctions pass.  “In case the U.S. eventually does rig up the illegal and unlawful ‘resolution’ on harsher sanctions, the DPRK [North Korea] shall make absolutely sure that the U.S. pays due price,” the spokesman of the country’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

However, it is unclear if these drastically watered down sanctions, which have China’s explicit blessing, will be sufficient to prompt another ICBM launch and/or nuclear test. In any case, keep an eye on those flashing red headlines.

end
North Korea again threatens the west with the “greatest possible pain and suffering” to which they ignore.  North Korea will suffer a lot of pain as 90% of the exports are cut off.
(courtesy zero hedge)

North Korea Doubles Down On Threat Of “Greatest Possible Pain And Suffering” After Latest UN Sanctions

You’ve probably heard this one before.

After the United Nations unanimously voted to impose stricter sanctions on the North on Monday, North Korea again vociferously rejected the unanimous Security Council decision and issued its latest in a string of threats, recycling verbatim language it had used early Monday local time when the US was still calling for a total ban on energy imports to the North. At the time, the North warned that it would inflict “the greatest possible pain” on the US if more sanctions were to be imposed.

Well, later that day, the Security Council unanimously voted to impose stricter sanctions on the North. The resolution cut North Korean exports by 90% and reduced the refined products available to North Korea by 44% and fuel by 30%, however it did not touch the North Korean oil trade, a key factor for Beijing. Of course, this represented a dramatic watering-down of the US’s original sanctions proposal, which excluded Trump’s prior demands for an oil import ban as well as an international asset freeze on the government and leader Kim Jong Un, concessions made in an attempt to win the support of Moscow and Beijing.

As expected, a North Korean diplomat immediately blasted the measures as “unlawful” according to Reuters:

“‘My delegation condemns in the strongest terms and categorically rejects the latest illegal and unlawful U.N. Security Council resolution,” Pyongyang’s ambassador, Han Tae Song, told the U.N.-sponsored Conference on Disarmament in Geneva.

 

Han accused the U.S. administration of being ‘fired up for political, economic, and military confrontation,’ and of being ‘obsessed with the wild game of reversing the DPRK’s development of nuclear force which has already reached the completion phase.’”

… Before issuing the following familiar threat.

“The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea is “ready to use a form of ultimate means,” Han said without elaborating. The forthcoming measures by DPRK will make the U.S. “suffer the greatest pain it ever experienced in its history,” he said.

As usual, the North’s words were largely ignored by the US. One US diplomat – disarmament ambassador Robert Wood – took the floor at the Security Council meeting to praise the sanctions, saying they sent “a very clear and unambiguous message” to the Kim regime.

“U.S. disarmament ambassador Robert Wood took the floor to say that the Security Council resolution “frankly sent a very clear and unambiguous message to the regime that the international community is tired, is no longer willing to put up provocative behaviour from this regime”.

 

“My hope is the regime will hear the message loud and clear and it will choose a different path,” Wood said.

 

“We call on all countries to vigorously implement these new sanctions and all other existing sanctions,” he added.”

While Korea’s threats have sometimes portended coming nuclear or missile tests, a Friday report from NBC has complicated matters somewhat by relaying that Chinese leaders have said they would intervene to protect Pyongyang if the war of words erupts into a full-scale military conflict on the peninsula, a message they, too, delivered previously in what is becoming a giant geopolitical melodrama on constant rewind.

As for North Korea’s threat, Pyongyang cable providers apparently don’t carry E! or CNN, otherwise Kim Jong Un would know how laughable his “max pain” threat is when compared to “Keeping Up With The Kardashians”… or the 2016 presidential campaign.

end

The latest threats seem to both the market with the following release:

(courtesy zerohedge)

USDJPY Slumps On North Korea Threat About “Next Measures”

With the USDJPY tripping 110 stops moments ago, and breaking above the key resistance level, moments ago the USDJPY and 10Y yields slumped modestly on what appears to have been the latest set of belligerent headlines out of North Korea, which appears to have taken yesterday’s UNSC sanctions… badly, with attention falling on the bolded Interfax headline according to which North Korea is about to unveil a new set of “measures” which will “thrust the US into the worst predicament it has ever known”:

  • NORTH KOREA AMBASSADOR TO RUSSIA SAYS NORTH KOREA HAS ONLY ONE PATH – DEVELOPMENT OF NUCLEAR FORCES: IFX
  • NORTH KOREA DEVELOPING, IMPROVING NUCLEAR WEAPONS AS MEANS TO DETER U.S. HOSTILE POLICY – NORTH KOREAN AMBASSADOR TO RUSSIA: IFX
  • NORTH KOREA ABSOLUTELY DISMISSES U.N. SECURITY COUNCIL RESOLUTIONS, THEY ARE UNLAWFUL – NORTH KOREAN AMBASSADOR TO RUSSIA: IFX
  • NORTH KOREA AMBASSADOR TO RUSSIA SAYS OUR NEXT MEASURES WILL THRUST U.S. INTO WORST PREDICAMENT IT HAS EVER KNOWN: IFX

While both rates and FX noticed the headlines, stocks are far too focused on what Tim Cook will announce in under 3 hours to care about what according to Bank of America, stocks believe is the top “tail risk”, making the credibility of the BofA Fund Manager Survey just a little suspect…

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

My goodness:  the central bank of Japan now owns 75% of all Japanese ETF’s.  The problem will come when they have to unload them and what will happen to the Japanese stock market

(courtesy zero hedge)

WTF Chart Of The Day: BoJ Now Owns 75% of Japanese ETFs

While ECB President Mario Draghi faces his own German-bond-market constraints in his hubristic bond-buying-bonanza, cornering him to taper sooner than later; the Bank of Japan appears to have thrown every textbook out of the window and cranked their plunge-protection to ’11’, as Bloomberg reports, The Bank of Japan now holds 75% of the nation’s ETFs.

Since December 2010 – when The Bank of Japan held no ETFs at all – the central bank has been buying ETFs  (doubling its annual buying target to 6 trillion yen in July 2016) as part of unprecedented economic stimulus. While the Nikkei 225 Stock Average has risen 89% since December 2010, the BOJ’s dominance of the ETF market has raised concerns.

In fact, in a circular vicious cycle, the Bank of Japan’s purchases have helped assets managed by ETFs surge almost 10-fold since the end of 2010 to 25 trillion yen ($230 billion).

As the chart below shows, the central bank now owns three quarters of such funds by market value…

Even the head of Japan’s stock exchange Akira Kiyotasays he is unsettled by the risk of “constant distortion” posed by the central bank’s exchange-traded fund buying.

The impact on Japan’s overall stock market may be limited because the total value of BOJ ETF holdings is the equivalent of just 5 percent of the Topix market capitalization.

But, any tapering of such purchases may erode demand, particularly for stocks in which it is a dominant shareholder.

At this rate, the BOJ could dominate 80 percent of the ETF market by year-end.

Once it decides to stop buying, or even start selling, it’s not clear what the stock market impact will be or who will buy that amount of ETFs

end

c) REPORT ON CHINA

end

1000’s head to the streets in Barcelona for Catalan National Day.  The referendum date  for Independence is Oct 1.2017.

(courtesy zero hedge)

UK/EU
The EU wants a huge 100 billion pound payment for backing out of the partnership.  England is balking and 4 MP’s are threatening to block divorce payments unless Parliament approves
(courtesy Mish Shedlock/Mish talk )

EU Accuses UK Of Backtracking: UK MPs Threaten To Block Divorce Payments

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Brexit negotiations hit the rocks with the size of the Brexit divorce bill the key issue.

The Independent reports: Britain is ‘backtracking’ on its Brexit divorce bill commitments, moans Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator warns.

My response: Hooray for the UK!

Michel Barnier said he was “disappointed” by the UK position and publicly warned the British team it should go back to the drawing board after it presented a legal analysis arguing that Britain owed far less than the Commission believed.

 

“So there’s a moral dilemma here: you can’t have 27 paying for what was decided by 28, so what was decided by 28 member states, that has to be borne out by 28 member states right up to the end, it’s as simple as that.

 

The UK says it wants to go through the Brexit bill line-by-line to work out what it owes the EU, but the EU says spending commitments already agreed to during the current budget round should simply be honored.

 

David Davis told the House of Commons earlier this week that he had “significant differences” with the EU on the Brexit divorce bill and that the two sides were taking “very different legal stances”.

 

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has said the final divorce bill could be around £55bn. Mr. Davis has dismissed reports the UK secretly agreed on a bill of up to £50bn. Others suggested the divorce bill could reach £92bn.

 

The so-called divorce bill has caused controversy for months. Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson faced criticism in July for suggesting the EU could “go whistle” if they expected the UK to pay any money to leave.

EU Hucksters

The Sunday Express explains Why EU will NEVER get its £90bn Brexit divorce bill.

EU negotiators were said to have been left “flabbergasted” after British lawmakers told them there was little or no legal basis for their £90billion claim. A young civil servant reportedly left EU negotiators “open-mouthed” with a line-by-line “technical” demolition of the demand.

 

Tory grandee John Redwood said last night that there was no legal basis for the demand. He also said Mr Davis had no right to authorise it without parliamentary approval.

 

“Article 50 is clear,” he said. “Once a state leaves it has no further rights and benefits, and no further duties or obligations. It is of course true the treaty does not prevent the EU accepting a payment volunteered by a departing state if it wished to pay one. However, the UK could not make such a payment legally under our own law and system for controlling public spending.”

 

The former Welsh secretary, who voted for Brexit, said ministers have “absolutely no authority to make one-off additional payments to the EU. The only way Mr. Davis could authorize a leaving payment would be to put through an Act of Parliament specifically authorizing such an ex gratia payment. I can’t see many Conservative MPs wanting to vote for that.”

 

Eurosceptics on both sides of the house said MPs were likely to vote down any demand deemed “excessive” – even those who had voted Remain.

 

Mr Rees-Mogg said: “Almost certainly there will have to be a vote. The money has to be voted through by Parliament and with MPs facing the fury of voters, it cannot be too much money.”

 

Fellow Brexiteer and Tory MP Andrew Bridgen said: “Any deal will have to go through Parliament and if its seen in any way excessive then it won’t go through.”

 

Referring to an ICM poll which found that two-thirds of voters would find paying anything over £10 billion “unacceptable”, he added: “That polling data gives you a ballpark figure of what the British public would find acceptable. We buy more from the EU than we sell, we aren’t charging them for access to our market so what possible reason would they have to charge us for access to theirs unless they want to cost Europeans their livelihoods?

 

“The British public won’t accept a punishment payment. No MP in their right mind would vote for that, whether they are Brexiteers or Remainers. The EU is talking about multi-billion pound payments in line with the entire NHS budget. The electorate won’t stand for it.”

 

Labour MP Kate Hoey, who also voted Leave, agreed. She said: “If you give up your membership of a leisure or social club, you don’t have to carry on paying for the staff pensions after you’ve left.”

Journalist Blasts Bexit Divorce Bill

https://players.brightcove.net/2540076170001/ByveBcs0_default/index.html?videoId=5570385290001

He surprised others on the news panel show Dateline after the three other correspondents relentlessly criticised David Davis and the British negotiating team.

Mr. Burns also hit out at Michel Barnier’s “frankly insulting” tone towards Britain and warned Jean-Claude Juncker that he was “sitting on a volcano”.

John Fisher Burns, who previously worked for the New York Times, delivered a stunning rebuke as the lone voice defending Britain’s approach to Brexit on a BBC show.

“Barnier’s position seems to be a combination of Napoleonic hauteur and fairground hucksterism,” said Burns.

MPs Threaten to BLOCK any Big Brexit Divorce Bill

The Daily Mail reports MPs Threaten to BLOCK any Big Brexit Divorce Bill.

MPs are threatening to block any big divorce bill Theresa May tries to agree with the EU. The warnings underline the scale of the challenge the government faces if it signs up to paying large sums of money to Brussels. The EU has made clear it wants up to £100 billion to settle the UK’s ‘liabilities’ when we leave the bloc.

 

Eurocrats have insisted the principles of the financial divorce must be agreed before they will start talking about trade talks – effectively attempting to hold the UK to ransom.

 

There are claims ministers might be willing to consider a figure closer to £50billion to end the stand-off- although Brexit Secretary David Davis has dismissed that as ‘total rubbish’.

 

Even a significantly lower payment could be a serious problem for the government, with leading Eurosceptics insisting an Act of Parliament would be needed to authorize handing over the cash.

 

Former Cabinet minister John Redwood said he did not believe many MPs would vote in favor of such a payment.

 

‘The only way UK Ministers could authorize a leaving payment would be to put through an Act of Parliament specifically authorizing such an ex gratia payment. I can’t see many Conservative MPs wanting to vote for that,’ he told The Sun.

 

Labour MP Kate Hoey added: ‘I suspect a lot of MPs would in principle vote against any excessive payment.

 

‘I would vote against paying a big bill unless I could be convinced that all the money we have paid in over many years had been taken into account first.

 

‘But my quick calculations suggest that the British public would be expecting to pay very very little, if anything at all.’

My Take

The UK owes the EU nothing. £10 billion would be a generous offer.

The EU may stall, and stall and stall. Another possibility is the UK agree may agree to a lengthy transition period in which the UK keeps paying EU dues. Those dues could mount up.

To avoid such stalling tactics, The best thing to do is simply leave and pay nothing, then revoke EU fishing rights and threaten to lower corporate taxes. Then and only then will negotiations make any sense.

Unfortunately, the nannycrats still act as if they have the upper hand. The sooner the UK ends that delusion, the better.

end

 

The British Pound sinks against the dollar (Cable= Pound/USA dollar) when the two sides have big disagreements as to the penalty exit Britain must pay for a BREXIT.  A one week cooling off period is now called for

(courtesy zerohedge)

Cable Sinks As EU-UK Postpone Next Round Of Brexit Talks

Having spiked overnight on the back of surging inflation, Cable just tumbled after it appears disagreements over the ‘divorce’ payments forced EU and UK to postpone the next round of Brexit talks… for a cooling off period?

As we detailed previously, the EU is accusing UK of backtracking on its promise to pay an exorbitant fee to leave the union.

EU negotiators were said to have been left “flabbergasted” after British lawmakers told them there was little or no legal basis for their £90billion claim. A young civil servant reportedly left EU negotiators “open-mouthed” with a line-by-line “technical” demolition of the demand.

 

Tory grandee John Redwood said last night that there was no legal basis for the demand. He also said Mr Davis had no right to authorise it without parliamentary approval.

 

“Article 50 is clear,” he said. “Once a state leaves it has no further rights and benefits, and no further duties or obligations. It is of course true the treaty does not prevent the EU accepting a payment volunteered by a departing state if it wished to pay one. However, the UK could not make such a payment legally under our own law and system for controlling public spending.”

 

The former Welsh secretary, who voted for Brexit, said ministers have “absolutely no authority to make one-off additional payments to the EU. The only way Mr. Davis could authorize a leaving payment would be to put through an Act of Parliament specifically authorizing such an ex gratia payment. I can’t see many Conservative MPs wanting to vote for that.”

 

Eurosceptics on both sides of the house said MPs were likely to vote down any demand deemed “excessive” – even those who had voted Remain.

 

Mr Rees-Mogg said: “Almost certainly there will have to be a vote. The money has to be voted through by Parliament and with MPs facing the fury of voters, it cannot be too much money.”

 

Fellow Brexiteer and Tory MP Andrew Bridgen said: “Any deal will have to go through Parliament and if its seen in any way excessive then it won’t go through.”

 

Referring to an ICM poll which found that two-thirds of voters would find paying anything over £10 billion “unacceptable”, he added: “That polling data gives you a ballpark figure of what the British public would find acceptable. We buy more from the EU than we sell, we aren’t charging them for access to our market so what possible reason would they have to charge us for access to theirs unless they want to cost Europeans their livelihoods?

 

“The British public won’t accept a punishment payment. No MP in their right mind would vote for that, whether they are Brexiteers or Remainers. The EU is talking about multi-billion pound payments in line with the entire NHS budget. The electorate won’t stand for it.”

 

Labour MP Kate Hoey, who also voted Leave, agreed. She said: “If you give up your membership of a leisure or social club, you don’t have to carry on paying for the staff pensions after you’ve left.”

It appears that has pushed the negotiators to delay proceedings…

 

Of course this is not exactly new news. Last week, European Parliament’s Brexit representative Guy Verhofstadt already highlighted this risk.

“Possibly the next round of negotiation will be the last week of September, not the third week of September.”

 

Verhofstadt explained on September 4, “Apparently there will be an important intervention by the British prime minister in the coming days, foreseen on September 21, and then it’s a little bit stupid that there is this mixed with the negotiation round.”

This has been confirmed by the Bloomberg report, which suggests that the next round will only be delayed by a week (from September 18 to 25).

We would expect cable to bounce back.

Italy

 

Three of Italy’s top 4 political parties now seek a new parallel currency to trade along side the Euro. Over 50% of the population want to get out of the Euro so this is one way to attract the votes

(courtesy Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

Three Of Italy’s Top Four Political Parties Seek A New Parallel Currency

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

In a bid to appeal to the growing anti-euro sentiment in Italythree of Italy’s biggest political parties seek a dual currency.

Italy’s leading opposition parties are calling for the introduction of a parallel currency to the euro, which they say will boost growth and jobs.

 

Three of the country’s four largest parties – the Five Star Movement, the Northern League and former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia – have proposed introducing a new currency following an election scheduled for next year.

 

The proposals for a parallel currency have replaced the opposition parties’ previous calls to leave the euro completely.

 

By settling on a dual currency, analysts say the parties hope to appeal to anti-euro sentiment in the country while avoiding, for now, the upheaval of an outright exit.

 

A poll by the Winpoll agency in March showed that only around half of Italians back the euro.

 

As the election nears, and with opinion polls currently pointing to a hung parliament, only the ruling Democratic Party is not proposing changes to the current euro set-up.

Next General Election

The next Italian General Election is due to be held no later than May 20, 2018.

Key Players

  • M5S – Five Star Movement – Beppe Grillo, a comedian. The M5S is variously considered populist, anti-establishment, environmentalist, anti-globalist, and Eurosceptic. The “five stars” are a reference to five key issues for the party: public water, sustainable transport, sustainable development, right to Internet access, and environmentalism. In foreign policy, the M5S has disapproved military interventions of the West in the Greater Middle East (Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya) as well as any notion of American intervention in Syria.
  • PD – Democratic Party – Matteo Renzi, former prime minister. The PD’s main ideological trends are thus social democracy and the Italian Christian leftist tradition.
  • Northern League – Lega Nord – Matteo Salvini. Under Salvini, the party has emphasized Euroscepticism, opposition to immigration, and other “populist” policies, while forming an alliance with nationalist and right-wing populist parties such as France’s National Front, the Netherlands’ Party for Freedom and the Freedom Party of Austria at the European level.
  • Forza Italia – Forward Italy – Silvio Berlusconi, a four-time Prime Minister. Under Berlusconi, FI’s long-time coalition partner was Lega Nord.

Silvio Berlusconi is prone to flip-flops and would likely do anything if it brought him back in power. However, PD + FI will likely not come close to 50%.

Early Elections?

On May 30, Bloomberg reported Italy Moves Toward Early Vote as Election Law Deal Nears

Italy’s biggest parties are considering a proportional system similar to the German model with a 5 percent cut-off for smaller parties, and lawmakers are due to discuss a first draft of the new law early next month. An agreement would remove any hindrance to snap elections, eliminating the need to wait for scheduled elections in early 2018.

 

Ultimately, it’s up to Italian President Sergio Mattarella to make the call on when to dissolve parliament. According to Italian newspapers including Corriere della Sera, Mattarella would prefer to let the government of Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni, 62, a soft-spoken diplomat and Democratic-Party ally of Renzi’s, stay in power until next year.

 

While an early vote would put an end to a legislature that already saw three governments in power amid palace coups and constitutional-referendum defeats, a proportional system runs the risk of producing a hung parliament. An election this year would come at a delicate time for Italy, with its banking woes unresolved and the budget law for 2018 still to be approved.

 

The proposed new law “would likely not facilitate an outright victory by one of the three major political groups” resulting in a hung parliament, said LC Macro Advisers Ltd. founder Lorenzo Codogno who sees the likelihood of early elections at 60 percent.

That deal fell and I can find no other recent references regarding early elections.

Left Crumbles

On June 26, the Guardian reported Italy’s Centre-Right Wins Big in Mayoral Elections as Left Crumbles

An alliance of Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party and the anti-immigrant Northern League won 55% of the votes in Genoa, the northern port city that was a leftwing stronghold but which the right will now govern for the first time in more than 50 years.

 

PD leader Matteo Renzi, 42, who has been seeking to make a comeback since stepping down as prime minister in December, was the clear loser in Sunday’s vote.

 

The centre-left has governed Italy for four years, during which time the economy grew by only half the eurozone average. Three different PD premiers have struggled to shore up a banking system strangled by bad loans, and to manage half a million migrants who came by boat from north Africa.

 

Sunday’s vote – the second round for cities where no one candidate won more than 50% two weeks ago – is one of the last before a general election due by the end of May 2018, but it may not be a reliable indicator of what will happen then. The first-past-the-post voting system used at the municipal level, which favours coalitions, may not be replicated at a national level, where a proportional system is now in place.

 

Genoa is the latest of a string of defeats in the PD’s traditional strongholds. Last year it lost Turin, Italy’s fourth-largest city, and the capital Rome, both to the Five Star Movement (M5S), which was founded only eight years ago.

 

M5S, which opinion polls say is slightly more popular than the PD nationwide, performed very badly in the first round of voting on 11 June and made the run-off in only one of the 25 largest cities. It added eight mayors to its modest tally.

 

“We now have 45 mayors, up from 37 before, which is an increase of 20%,” M5S founder Beppe Grillo said on his blog. “Every damned election we are growing and that is what counts.”

Two Things

M5S, NL, and FI appear likely top a combined 50%, perhaps easily. That does not necessarily mean a coalition will form.

The two things and possibly the only two things that unite the Five Star Movement, the Northern League, and Forza Italia are a desire to crush Matteo Renzi and a desire to get Italy off the Euro.

And when it comes to Berlusconi’s views on the euro, one has to question his sincerity. He has changed his position many times.

5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

END

7. OIL ISSUES

OPEC cuts a tiny bit of oil production as compliance slides again.  The problem facing OPEC now will be the lack of demand due to the hurricanes.

(courtesy zerohedge)

(courtesy zero hedge)

8. EMERGING MARKET

VENEZUELA

the true inflation rate in Venezuela: 1900% per year

(courtesy Steve Hanke/John Hopkins University)

Venezuela’s Grim Reaper – A Weekly Report

Authored by Steve H. Hanke of the Johns Hopkins University. Follow him on Twitter @Steve_Hanke.

The Grim Reaper has taken his scythe to the Venezuelan bolivar. The death of the bolivar is depicted in the following chart. A bolivar is worthless, and with its collapse, Venezuela is witnessing the world’s worst inflation.

As the bolivar collapsed and inflation accelerated, the Banco Central de Venezuela (BCV) became an unreliable source of inflation data. Indeed, from December 2014 until January 2016, the BCV did not report inflation statistics. Then, the BCV pulled a rabbit out of its hat in January 2016 and reported a phony annual inflation rate for the third quarter of 2015. So, the last official inflation data reported by the BCV is almost two years old. To remedy this problem, the Johns Hopkins – Cato Institute Troubled Currencies Project, which I direct, began to measure Venezuela’s inflation in 2013.

The most important price in an economy is the exchange rate between the local currency and the world’s reserve currency — the U.S. dollar. As long as there is an active black market (read: free market) for currency and the black market data are available, changes in the black market exchange rate can be reliably transformed into accurate estimates of countrywide inflation rates. The economic principle of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) allows for this transformation.

I compute the implied annual inflation rate on a daily basis by using PPP to translate changes in the VEF/USD exchange rate into an annual inflation rate. The chart below shows the course of that annual rate, which previously peaked at 1823% (yr/yr) in early August 2017. At present, Venezuela’s annual inflation rate is 1892%, the highest in the world (see the chart below).

end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00 am

Euro/USA   1.1937 DOWN .0020/REACTING TO  + huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:/TRUMP HEALTH CARE DEFEAT//ITALIAN REFERENDUM DEFEAT/AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/ /USA FALLING INTEREST RATES AGAIN/HOUSTON FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES mostly IN THE GREEN 

USA/JAPAN YEN 109.82 UP 0.491(Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/SIGNALS U TURN WITH INCREASED NEGATIVITY IN NIRP/JAPAN OUT OF WEAPONS TO FIGHT ECONOMIC DISASTER/   

GBP/USA 1.3282 UP .01143 (Brexit  March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED

THERESA MAY FORMS A NEW GOVERNMENT/STARTS BREXIT TALKS

USA/CAN 1.2127 up .0020 (CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA)

Early THIS TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 20 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level  FALLING to 1.1837; / Last night the Shanghai composite CLOSED  UP 3.06 POINTS OR 0.09%     / Hang Sang  CLOSED  UP 17.11 POINTS OR 0.06% /AUSTRALIA  CLOSED UP 0.54% / EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED  MOSTLY IN THE GREEN (EXCEPT LONDON)

The NIKKEI: this TUESDAY morning CLOSED UP 230.85 POINTS OR 1.18%

Trading from Europe and Asia:
1. Europe stocks  OPENED  MOSTLY THE GREEN 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / : Hang Sang CLOSED UP 17.11 POINTS OR 0.06%  / SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 3.06 POINTS OR 0.09%   /Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.54% /Nikkei (Japan)CLOSED UP 230.85 POINTS OR 1.18%   / INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1323.60

silver:$17.76

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield:  2.155% !!! UP 2   IN POINTS from MONDAY night in basis points and it is trading JUST BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

The 30 yr bond yield  2.759, UP 1 IN BASIS POINTS  from MONDAY night.

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 91.85 DOWN 2  CENT(S) from MONDAY’s close. 

This ends early morning numbers  TUESDAY MORNING

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And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.850% UP 3 in basis point(s) yield from MONDAY 

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.020%  UP  1  in   basis point yield from MONDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/NOW NEGATIVE

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.602% UP 4  IN basis point yield from MONDAY 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.025 UP 6 POINTS  in basis point yield from MONDAY 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 43 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: +.401% UP 7  IN  BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY

END

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IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM 

Euro/USA 1.1966 UP .0011 (Euro UP 11 Basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/

USA/Japan: 109.98 UP 0.587(Yen DOWN 59  basis points/ 

Great Britain/USA 1.3278 UP  0.01096( POUND UP 110 BASIS POINTS)

USA/Canada 1.2158 UP .0050 (Canadian dollar DOWN 50 basis points AS OIL ROSE TO $48.41

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This afternoon, the Euro was UP  by 11 basis points to trade at 1.1969

The Yen FELL to 109.98 for a LOSS of 59  Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE  

The POUND ROSE BY 110  basis points, trading at 1.3278/ 

The Canadian dollar FELL by 50 basis points to 1.2158,  WITH WTI OIL RISING TO :  $48.41

The USA/Yuan closed at 6.5354/
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.020%  UP 1 IN  BASIS POINTS / yield/ 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 5  IN basis points from MONDAY at 2.169% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic  USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.775 UP 3  in basis points on the day /

Your closing USA dollar index, 91.86  DOWN 2 CENT(S)  ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/BREAKS RESISTANCE OF 92.00 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 1:00 PM EST

London:  CLOSED DOWN  12.90 POINTS OR 0.17%
German Dax :CLOSED UP 49.53 POINTS OR 0.40%
Paris Cac  CLOSED UP 32.30 POINTS OR 0.62% 
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 13.60 POINTS OR 0.13%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 99.29 POINTS OR 0.45% 

The Dow closed UP 61.49 OR 0.28%

NASDAQ WAS closed up 22.02  POINTS OR 0.34%  4.00 PM EST

WTI Oil price;  48.41  1:00 pm; 

Brent Oil: 54.30 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE CROSS:  57.64 UP 42/100 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE LOWER BY 42 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES TO  +0.407%  FOR THE 10 YR BOND  4.PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today

Closing Price for Oil, 5 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 5:00 PM:$48.26

BRENT: $54.27

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.162%  (ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 2.70% BLOWS UP THE GLOBE)

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.769%

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS:  1.1962 UP .0004

USA/JAPANESE YEN:110.14  UP  0.735

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 91.92  UP 5  cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.3280 : UP 112 POINTS FROM LAST FRIDAY NIGHT  

Canadian dollar: 1.2187 down 79 BASIS pts 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: +0.407%

END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

Stocks, Dollar Extend “Not-The-End-Of-The-World” Gains; Bitcoin, Apple Drop

 

Just keep buying iPhones ‘Murica…

 

Nasdaq underperformed intraday thanks to APPL’s disappointing move, but ripped back into the close – S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq at record highs, (even with Dow hit by MCD and AAPL)

 

AAPL and NASDAQ completely decoupled after the iPhone launch ended…

 

VIX held below 11 today…

 

Another double short-squeeze for stocks (and fade)…

 

Financials extended their gains, as Utes slipped…

 

The last 3 days have been the best for financials since the election – ripping from the 200DMA to the 50DMA…

 

AAPL Shares tumbled after iPhone X was unveiled with a failed facial recognition demo and late ship date...

 

FANG Stocks ended the day unchanged, fading after AAPL’s event began…

 

Treasury yields rose once again, making it back to the pre-H-Bomb test levels

 

10Y yields are back at Harvey/Missiles-over-Japan levels…after a weak auction today

 

Are bond yields playing catch up to stocks?

 

The Dollar Index extended its post-NOT-the-end-of-the-world gains…

 

USDJPY continues to surge (Yen weaker)… (note Cable strengthened today on surging inflation)

 

WTI and RBOB both bounced on the day ahead of tonight’s API data…

 

Gold bounced as Bitcoin was battered after JPM’s Dimon’s comments...

 

 

end

 

It is now official;  USA debt is now 20.162 trillion dollars, jumping 318 billion dollars.  They have until March when the next debt ceiling showdown commences

(courtesy zerohedge)

JPM Warns Trading Revenue To Tumble 20% In Q3, May Halt Trading Revenue Guidance

Yesterday it was Citi’s turn: Citigroup CFO Brian John Gerspach warned that the bank’s markets revenue in the third quarter which is ending in less than three weeks, will be down 15%, as the third quarter “is lacking the volatility that pushed revenue higher in third quarter of 2016” underscoring as he did last quarter, that volatility remains “subdued.”

As we said yesterday, “for that he, and his other banker peers, can thank the central banks, who have made selling vol and BTFD the only two concepts an entire generation of traders is aware of.”

Not even 24 hours later we got another confirmation that to every Fed VIX slam, there is now an opposite revenue reduction by the Big US banks, which desperately need volatility to boost their sales and trading business. Moments ago JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon spoke at the Barclays financial conference, where he said that trading revenue in Q3 was on pace to drop by 20% Y/Y, and worse, the CEO said he is considering halting guidance on trading revenue.

This disclosure by JPM concludes a bizarre day in which first Goldman accelerated its pivot to a bricks and mortar retail bank, and now America’s most powerful bank, JPMorgan, is warning that at a time of all time market highs and a “roaring, coordinated” global recovery, its top line is not only slumping, but it either does not have visibility or simply does not want to disclose it… which is worse.

JPM stock, while dropping initially, has promptly rebounded as the BTFD algos immediately filled the gap.

 end

that about does it for tonight

I will see you WEDNESDAY  night

Harvey.

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