Sept 21/USA yield curve flattens indicating recession: goes against the wishes of the Fed/Gold and silver raid continues by our bankers with gold down $19.95 and silver down 29 cents/Huge sanctions against North Korea: no financial institution can do any business with North Korea or else they face sanctions/

 

GOLD: $1292.75 DOWN   $19.95

Silver: $17.00  DOWN 29 CENT(S)

Closing access prices:

Gold $1291.60

silver: $16.97

SHANGHAI GOLD FIX:  FIRST FIX  10 15 PM EST  (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SECOND FIX:  2:15 AM EST  (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1303.97 DOLLARS PER OZ

NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME:  $1299.20

PREMIUM FIRST FIX:  $4.77

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1302.97

NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1298.20

Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$4.77

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX:  5:30 am est  $1297.35

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $12.96.08

LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX  10 AM: $1291.80

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. 1291.80

For comex gold:

SEPTEMBER/

NOTICES FILINGS TODAY FOR SEPT CONTRACT MONTH: 29 NOTICE(S) FOR  2900  OZ.

TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 83 FOR 8300 OZ  (0.2581 TONNES)

For silver:

SEPTEMBER

 225 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR

1,125,000  OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 6,106 for 30,530,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

end

As I mentioned yesterday:

“Another planned raid by the crooks to coincide with the release of the FOMC balance sheet run off. The Fed did not anticipate that the yield curve would flatten:  the banks wanted the yield curve to rise as we go out in time: the opposite happened.”
 Obviously this is a policy error by the Fed and this should cause continual currency fluctuations as we go forward in time. The open interest readings of today are not much help..I need to see tonight’s reading of today’s trading to see how many gold/silver leaves were liquefied with the raid today.

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

In silver, the total open interest FELL SLIGHTLY BY 743 contracts from  192,994 DOWN TO 192,251 WITH THE SMALL RISE IN PRICE THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING (UP 5 CENTS ). DURING THE REGULAR COMEX TRADING WE HAD A LITTLE REPRIEVE FROM THE CONSTANT TORMENT OVER THE PAST 8 DAYS BUT THAT QUICKLY ENDED WITH THE HAWKISH FED ANNOUNCEMENT OF BALANCE SHEET RUN-OFF AND A MOST LIKELY RATE HIKE IN DECEMBER. BANKERS STILL RELUCTANT TO SUPPLY THE NECESSARY PAPER.

RESULT: A SMALL FALL IN OI COMEX  DESPITE THE 5 CENT PRICE RISE.  WE WILL NEED TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS TO OPEN INTEREST TOMORROW AS THE BIG DROP IN SILVER OCCURRED IN THE ACCESS MARKET AFTER THE COMEX CLOSED

 In ounces, the OI is still represented by just UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e.  0.9610 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 137% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MAY MONTH/ THEY FILED: 225 NOTICE(S) FOR 1,125,000  OZ OF SILVER

In gold, the open interest ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE 4598 CONTRACTS WITH THE  RISE  in price of gold ($5.25 GAIN WITH YESTERDAY’S COMEX TRADING/ GOLD DROPPED BADLY IN THE ACCESS MARKET TRADING).  The new OI for the gold complex rests at 574,694. AFTER 8 CONSECUTIVE TRADING DAYS WE HAD A SLIGHT  REPRIEVE FROM CONSTANT TORMENT. OUR BANKER FRIENDS DECIDED TO LET GOLD/SILVER RISE DURING REGULAR COMEX TRADING.  HOWEVER THEY ATTACKED WITH RECKLESS ABANDON IN ACCESS TRADING. WE WILL NEED TO SEE HOW BADLY THE GOLD LEAVES FELL WITH TOMORROW’S READING.

Result: A SMALL DECREASE IN OI WITH THE  TINY RISE IN PRICE IN GOLD ($5.25). BANKERS RETREAT TO HIGHER GROUND LETTING GOLD/SILVER RISE.  THEY WERE WAITING IN THE WINGS TO ATTACK ON THE FOMC BALANCE SHEET RUN OFF. 

we had: 29 notice(s) filed upon for 2900 oz of gold.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD:

Tonight , we had no change in gold inventory:

Inventory rests tonight: 846.03 tonnes

SLV

Today: no changes in inventory.

INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.915 MILLION OZ

end

.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in silver FELL BY A TINY 743 contracts from 192,994  DOWN TO 192,251 (AND now A LITTLE FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET ON FRIDAY/APRIL 21/2017 AT 234,787) DESPITE YESTERDAY’S 5 CENT GAIN IN TRADING.AFTER 8 CONSECUTIVE TRADING DAYS OF TORMENT, OUR BANKERS FOR A VERY SMALL TIME FRAME, REMOVED THEIR FOOT FROM THE THROAT OF BOTH GOLD AND SILVER. THEY DECIDED FOR A BRIEF MOMENT TO LET OUR PRECIOUS METALS SEEK HIGHER GROUND BEFORE THEY ATTACKED AGAIN IN YESTERDAY’S ACCESS MARKET ONCE THEY RELEASED THE FOMC STATEMENT WHICH WAS WIDELY EXPECTED AND BUILT INTO ALL MARKETS. THEY ARE CONTINUING WITH THEIR TORMENT TODAY, THE 9TH STRAIGHT DAY OF TORMENT.

RESULT:  A SMALL SIZED DROP IN SILVER OI  AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE TINY GAIN IN PRICE OF 5 CENTS IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING. BANKERS ALLOW FOR A  RETREAT TO HIGHER GROUND WAITING IN THE WINGS TO ATTACK ONCE FOMC DECISION AT 2 PM EST…THE ATTACK WAS PERFECTLY PREORDAINED..

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

 

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY:  Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late WEDNESDAY night/THURSDAY morning: Shanghai closed DOWN 8.18 POINTS OR 0.24%   / /Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 17.47 POINTS OR 0.06%/ The Nikkei closed UP 37.02 POINTS OR 0.18%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.92%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed WELL DOWN at 6.5919/Oil UP to 50.15 dollars per barrel for WTI and 55.87 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN . Offshore yuan trades  6.5887 yuan to the dollar vs 6.5919 for onshore yuan. NOW THE OFFSHORE MOVED A LITTLE STRONGER  TO THE ONSHORE YUAN/ ONSHORE YUAN MUCH WEAKER (TO THE DOLLAR)  AND THE OFFSHORE YUAN IS ALSO MUCH WEAKER TO THE DOLLAR AND THIS IS COUPLED WITH THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER DOLLAR. CHINA IS NOT  HAPPY TODAY 

 

3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA

i)North Korea

With all of the rhetoric coming from the west, South Korea decides to send aid to the North of badly needed medicinals and food.

( zerohedge)

ii) Trump orders new sanctions against North Korea. Trump claims that China’s central bank has ordered all Chinese banks to stop doing business with North Korea.  This should be crippling
(courtesy zerohedge)
iii)And now the details:  very draconian as it sanctions any financial institution doing business with North Korea.  This should bring North Korea to the table;
(courtesy zerohedge)

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

Japanese citizens still remain in a “deflationary mindset” as they hoard cash.  Japan just cannot get their inflation up to the target of 2%

(courtesy zerohedge)

c) REPORT ON CHINA

Seems that S and P agree with Kyle Bass:  they downgraded China’s debt to A+ due to its soaring debt growth

(courtesy zero hedge)

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)Spain

The Spanish government has decided to go after Catalan mayors and arrest them so a vote on independence would not occur this week. If Catalonia wants to separate it is their decision and nobody else;

( zero hedge)

ii)In order to stave off a rebellion, Rajoy sends a cruise ship of 16,000 riot police into Barcelona port
such much for democracy…
( zero hedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

 

7. OIL ISSUES

8. EMERGING MARKET

9.   PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Trading in the metals this morning: base metals being massacred

( zerohedge)

ii)Both John Hathaway and John Embry tell Kingworldnews that central banks are very much aware of the rigging of gold and that eastern nations are continuing to pick up our precious metals

(courtesy John Hathaway,JohnEmbry/Kingworldnews)

iii)  A JOKE:  LBMA pledges transparency with member dealings with government on gold swaps and gold related derivatives.

( GATA)

This is not a surprise:  the Russian government again shows its knows all about the gold suppression game orchestrated by the western banks and they are taking advantage of it by picking up much needed physical gold to add to their reserves

( Dmitry Speck/GATA)

10. USA Stories

i)the flattening of the yield curve generally flashes recession !!

( zerohedge)

ii)An excellent commentary on how the Petrodollar is now under attack and what they means for the declining uSA dollar:

(Darius Shatahmasebi/AntiMedia.org

Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE 4598 CONTRACTS UP to an OI level of 574,694 WITH THE  RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD  ($5.25 GAIN IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING). AFTER 8 DAYS OF TORMENT, OUR BANKER FRIENDS TEMPORARILY REMOVED THEIR FOOT FROM THE THROAT OF OUR TWO PRECIOUS METALS LETTING THEM SEEK HIGHER GROUND.  HOWEVER AFTER THE COMEX CLOSED THEY ATTACKED ON FED FOMC ANNOUNCEMENT OF BALANCE SHEET RUN OFF AND A POSSIBLY RATE HIKE IN DECEMBER. WE WILL NEED TO SEE TOMORROW’S READING OF OI TO SEE HOW MANY GOLD LEAVES FLED WITH THE CROOKED RAID ORCHESTRATED BY OUR BANKERS.

Result: a  GOOD SIZED open interest INCREASE WITH THE RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD TO THE TUNE OF $5.25. BANKERS RETREAT FOR HIGHER GROUND LETTING GOLD RISE, ONLY TO SLAM THE METAL ONCE FOMC ANNOUNCEMENT. 

The new non active September contract month saw it’s OI FELL BY 2 contracts DOWN to 706.   We had 0 notices filed UPON YESTERDAY so we LOST 2 contracts or an additional 200 oz will not stand A.  We had 2 EFP’s WERE ISSUED which entitles them to a fiat bonus plus a deliverable contract on a different exchange and most likely that would be London.  These are private deals so we do not get to see the makeup of these deals only the number of EFP’s issued.

The next active contract month is Oct and here we saw a LOSS of 1808 contracts DOWN to 32,613.

The November contract saw A GAIN OF 98 contract UP to 579.

The very big active December contract month saw it’s OI GAIN OF 3040 contracts UP to 447,995.

We had 29 notice(s) filed upon today for  2900 oz

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And now for the wild silver comex results.  Total silver OI FELL BY A TINY 743 CONTRACTS FROM 192,994 DOWN TO 192,251 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S  5 CENT GAIN IN PRICE. WE HAVE HAD  CONSTANT TORMENT FROM THE BANKERS THIS PAST WEEK BUT STILL OUR LONGS REMAIN RESOLUTE DETERMINED TO TAKE ON OUR BANKERS AS NO SILVER LEAVES AGAIN FELL FROM THE SILVER TREE. OUR BANKER FRIENDS DECIDED TO RETREAT TO HIGHER GROUND ONLY TO ATTACK IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE FOMC ANNOUNCEMENT OF  BALANCE SHEET REDUCTION AND A POSSIBLE RATE HIKE IN DECEMBER.  WE AGAIN WITNESS THE AMOUNT STANDING FOR SILVER DELIVERY INCREASE AND THIS TIME BY A WHOPPING 110,000 OZ.  WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING THIS PHENOMENA FOR THE PAST 5 MONTHS.  (SEE BELOW). BANKERS ORCHESTRATE ANOTHER RAID YESTERDAY, TRYING TO FORCE SILVER LEAVES TO FALL FROM THE SILVER TREE.
RESULT:  A SMALL DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX  DESPITE A 5 CENT GAIN IN PRICE. DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER RISES AGAIN AS THE AMOUNT STANDING INCREASES FOR THE SEPT CONTRACT MONTH BY A GOOD SIZED 110,000 OZ
WE AWAIT TOMORROW’S RESULTS IN OI TO SEE IF ANY SILVER LEAVES FELL WITH THE RAID YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/TODAY. 

We are now in the active contract month of September (and the last active month until December). Today we witness Sept. OI LOSS OF 49 contacts DOWN to 369. We had 71 notices filed yesterday, so we again gained 22 contracts or an additional 110,000 oz will stand for delivery. This phenomenon has been happening in silver for the past 5 months whereby the amount standing increases on each and every delivery day.  This queue jumping highlights the huge demand for silver that we have been witnessing around the globe. The next non active contract month for silver after September is October and here the OI GAINED 8 contacts UP TO 1034. November saw a GAIN of 7 contract(s) and thus RISING TO  69. After November, the NEXT big active contract month is December and here the OI LOST 1855  contracts DOWN to 155,867 contracts.

We had 225 notice(s) filed for  1,125,000 oz for the SEPT. 2017 contract

VOLUMES: for the gold comex

ESTIMATED VOLUME TODAY: XX CONTRACTS / NOT PROVIDED

YESTERDAY’S confirmed volume was 375,718 which is EXCELLENT

volumes on gold are STILL HIGHER THAN NORMAL!

INITIAL standings for SEPTEMBER

 Sept.21/2017.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz   nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz  
64.302 oz
(BRINKS)
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz    2,799.99 oz

BRINKS

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz 
 24,978.05 oz
SCOTIA
No of oz served (contracts) today
 
29 notice(s)
2900 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
706 contracts
(70,600 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
83 notices
8300 oz
0.2587 tonnes
Total accumulative withdrawals  of gold from the Dealers inventory this month   NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month   39,885.0  oz
Today we HAD  0 kilobar transaction(s)/ 
 WE HAD ONE DEALER DEPOSIT:
i) Into Brinks:  2799.99 oz
total dealer deposits: 2799.99 oz
We had nil dealer withdrawals:
total dealer withdrawals:  0 oz
we had 1 customer deposit(s):
 i) Into Scotia:  24,978.05 oz
total customer deposits; 24,978.05  oz
We had 1 customer withdrawal(s)
iii) Out of Brinks: 64.302 oz
total customer withdrawals; 64.302 oz
 we had 0 adjustment(s)
For SEPT:

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 29  contract(s)  of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

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To calculate the initial total number of gold ounces standing for the SEPTEMBER. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (83) x 100 oz or 8300 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT. (706 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (29) x 100 oz per contract equals 76,000  oz, the number of ounces standing in this active month of SEPT.
 
Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPTEMBER contract month:
No of notices served so far (83) x 100 oz  or ounces + {(708)OI for the front month  minus the number of  notices served upon today (29) x 100 oz which equals 76,000 oz standing in this  active delivery month of SEPTEMBER  (2.3639 tonnes)
We LOST 2 contracts OR AN ADDITIONAL 200 OZ WILL NOT STAND FOR GOLD and 2 EFP’s were issued for September which gives the long holder a fiat bonus plus a deliverable product on another exchange and that most likely will be London.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Total dealer inventory 716,132.702 or 22.277 tonnes  (dealer gold continues to disappear)
Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) = 8,697,4211.592 or 270.51 tonnes 
 
I have a sneaky feeling that these withdrawals of gold in kilobars are being used in the hypothecating process  and are being used in the raiding of gold!

The gold comex is an absolute fraud.  The use of kilobars and exact weights makes the data totally absurd and fraudulent! To me, the only thing that makes sense is the fact that “kilobars: are entries of hypothecated gold sent to other jurisdictions so that they will not be short with their underwritten derivatives in that jurisdiction.  This would be similar to the rehypothecated gold used by Jon Corzine at MF Global.
 
IN THE LAST 13 MONTHS  83 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.
end
And now for silver
AND NOW THE AUGUST DELIVERY MONTH
September initial standings
 Sept 21  2017
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory  nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 690,053.046 oz
Scotia
CNT
Delaware
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
 nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory 
 1,270,431.975 oz
Delaware
CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)
225 CONTRACT(S)
(1,125,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
144 contracts
(720,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 6106 contracts (30,530,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month  NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal  of silver from the Customer inventory this month 5,797,087.9 oz
today, we had  0 deposit(s) into the dealer account:
total dealer deposit: nil   oz
we had 0 dealer withdrawals:
total dealer withdrawals: nil oz
we had 3 customer withdrawal(s):
i) out of Scotia: 60,053.046 oz
ii) Out of CNT: 621,127.556 oz
iii) Out of Delaware: 78889.65  oz
TOTAL CUSTOMER WITHDRAWALS: 690,053.046  oz
We had 2 Customer deposit(s):
 i) Into Delaware:  70,500.455 oz
ii) Into CNT: 1,199,931.520 oz
***deposits into JPMorgan have stopped  again
In the month of March and February, JPMorgan stopped (received) almost all of the comex silver contracts.
why is JPMorgan bringing in so much silver??? why is this not criminal in that they are also the massive short in silver
total customer deposits: 1,270,431.975  oz
 
 we had 1 adjustment(s) 
Out of the CNT  865,817.870 was transferred out of the customer and into the dealer account of CNT
The total number of notices filed today for the SEPTEMBER. contract month is represented by 225 contract(s) for 1,125,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPTEMBER., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 6106 x 5,000 oz  = 30,530,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT (369) and the number of notices served upon today (225) x 5000 oz equals the number of ounces standing.
 

 

.
 
Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the SEPTEMBER contract month:  6106 (notices served so far)x 5000 oz  + OI for front month of SEPTEMBER(369 ) -number of notices served upon today (225)x 5000 oz  equals  31,250,000 oz  of silver standing for the SEPTEMBER contract month. This is excellent for this active delivery month. Silver is being constantly demanded at the silver comex and we witness again the amount of silver demanded daily increase right from the get go. (ON AUGUST 31 (FIRST DATE NOTICE) WE HAD 20.15 MILLION OZ STAND. THUS IN THE FIRST 19 DAYS OF SEPTEMBER, WE HAVE HAD A HUGE INCREASE OF  11.2 MILLION OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY AS DEALERS JUMP QUEUE TRYING TO FIND THE NECESSARY SILVER TO SUPPLY TO OUR LONGS.)
 
WE HAD AN INCREASE OF 22 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 110,000 OZ OF SILVER WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE CONTRACT MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. THIS HAS BEEN THE 5th CONSECUTIVE MONTH THAT WE HAVE WITNESSED EITHER AN INCREASE (95% OF THE TIME) OR STANDING PAT (THE OTHER 5%).  WE HAVE NOT HAD A DECREASE IN STANDING I.E. AS THEY DELIVERY MONTH PROCEEDS NOBODY WISHES AN EFP PRODUCT IN EXCHANGE FOR A DEPARTING LONG.SOMEBODY BIG WANTS SILVER IN A VERY BIG WAY.
Last yr on the first day notice for the Sept silver 2016 contract we had 17.070 million oz stand for delivery.
By month end:  16.075 million oz/
 
Volumes: for silver comex
ESTIMATED VOLUME TODAY: XX CONTRACTS
NOT PROVIDED
YESTERDAY’s  confirmed volume was 86,264 contracts which is EXCELLENT
YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 86,264 CONTRACTS WHICH EQUATES TO 431 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OR 62% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER EX CHINA EX RUSSIA). IN OUR HEARINGS THE COMMISSIONERS STRESSED THAT THE OPEN INTEREST SHOULD BE AROUND 3% OF THE MARKET.
 
Total dealer silver:  38.674 million (close to record low inventory  
Total number of dealer and customer silver:   218.690 million oz
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017  with the price at that day at  $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
end

NPV for Sprott and Central Fund of Canada

1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative 7.1 percent to NAV usa funds and Negative 7,3% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!! 
Percentage of fund in gold 62.5%
Percentage of fund in silver:37.5%
cash .+0.0%( Sept 21/2017) 
2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): STOCK   NAV RISES TO -0.740% (Sept 21/2017) 
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.23% to NAV  (Sept 21/2017 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back  into NEGATIVE territory at -0.23%/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ territory at -0.740%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail  but being rescued by Sprott.

Sprott’s hostile 3.1 billion bid to take over Central Fund of Canada

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

Sprott makes hostile $3.1 billion bid for Central Fund of Canada

 Section: Daily Dispatches

From the Canadian Press
via Canadian Broadcasting Corp. News, Toronto
Wednesday, March 8, 2017

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/sprott-takeover-bid-central-fund-c…

Toronto-based Sprott Inc. said Wednesday it’s making an all-share hostile takeover bid worth $3.1 billion US for rival bullion holder Central Fund of Canada Ltd.

The money-management firm has filed an application with the Court of Queen’s Bench of Alberta seeking to allow shareholders of Calgary-based Central Fund to swap their shares for ones in a newly-formed trust that would be substantially similar to Sprott’s existing precious metal holding entities.

The company is going through the courts after its efforts to strike a friendly deal were rebuffed by the Spicer family that controls Central Fund, said Sprott spokesman Glen Williams.

“They weren’t interested in having those discussions,” Williams said.

 Sprott is using the courts to try to give holders of the 252 million non-voting class A shares a say in takeover bids, which Central Fund explicitly states they have no right to participate in. That voting right is reserved for the 40,000 common shares outstanding, which the family of J.C. Stefan Spicer, chairman and CEO of Central Fund, control.

If successful through the courts, Sprott would then need the support of two-thirds of shareholder votes to close the takeover deal, but there’s no guarantee they will make it that far.

“It is unusual to go this route,” said Williams. “There’s no specific precedent where this has worked.”

Sprott did have success last year in taking over Central GoldTrust, a similar fund that was controlled by the Spicer family, after securing support from more than 96 percent of shareholder votes cast.

The firm says Central Fund’s shares are trading at a discount to net asset value and a takeover by Sprott could unlock US$304 million in shareholder value.

Central Fund did not have any immediate comment on the unsolicited offer. Williams said Sprott had not yet heard from Central Fund on the proposal but that some shareholders had already contacted them to voice their support.

Sprott’s existing precious metal holding companies are designed to allow investors to own gold and other metals without having to worry about taking care of the physical bullion.

end

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD

Sept 21/no change in gold inventory tonight/inventory rests at 846.03 tonnes

Sept 20/no change in gold inventory tonight/inventory rests at 846.03 tonnes

Sept 19/another deposit of 2.07 tonnes of gold into the GLD/inventory rests at 846.03 tonnes

Sept 18/a huge 5.32 tonnes of gold deposit into the GLD despite gold’s whack today/inventory rests at 843.96 tonnes

Sept 15./strange!!no change in GLD after the whacking of gold/inventory remains at 838.64 tonnes

Sept 14./no changes at the GLD/inventory rests at 838.64 tonnes

Sept 13/late last night a huge 4.14 tonnes of gold was added to the GLD inventory/inventory rests at 838.64 tonnes.

Sept 12/as of 5: 40 pm est, no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 834.50 tonnes

Sept 11/Today we had a rather large 2.37 tonnes of gold removed from the GLD/Inventory rests at 834.50 tonnes

Sept 8/we had a tiny withdrawal of .34 tonnes and probably that would be to pay for fees like insurance etc.

Inventory rests at 836.87 tonnes

Sept 7./no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 837.21 tonnes

SEPT 6/WE HAD ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 5.91 TONNES INTO THE GLD/IN THE LAST TWO DAYS: 20.69 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 837.21 TONES

Sept 5/we had a huge deposit of 14.78 tonnes into the GLD/Inventory rests at 831.21 tonnes

Sept 1/ no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 816.43 tonnes

AUGUST 31/no change in gold inventory at the GLD. Inventory rests at 816.43 tonnes

August 30/another deposit of 2.07 tonnes into the GLD inventory/inventory rests at 816.43 tonnes

August 29/a huge deposit of 9.16 tonnes of probable paper gold/inventory rests at 814.36 tonnes

AUGUST 28/a huge deposit f 5.91 tonnes of gold into GLD inventory/inventory rests at 805.20 tonnes

AUGUST 25/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.29 TONNES

AUGUST 24/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 799.29 tonnes

August 23/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 799.29 tonnes

August 22/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 799.29 tonnes/

AUGUST 21/this is good!! a huge deposit of gold into the GLD to the tune of 3.85 tonnes/Inventory rests at 799.29 tonnes

August 18/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 795.44 TONNES

August 17/late last night, a deposit of 4.43 tonnes of gold at the GLD/inventory rests at 795.44 tonnes/the bleeding of gold has stopped.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sept 21 /2017/ Inventory rests tonight at 846.03 tonnes
*IN LAST 236 TRADING DAYS: 95.07 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 171 TRADING DAYS: A NET  62.36 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO  GLD INVENTORY.
*FROM FEB 1/2017: A NET  30.97 TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED.

end

Now the SLV Inventory

Sept 21/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 324.915 million oz

Sept 20/no changes in silver inventory/Inventory remains at 324.915 million oz

Sept 19/strange!! another withdrawal of 1.134 million oz despite the rise in silver/inventory rests at 324.915 million oz

Sept 18/a withdrawal of 1.039 million oz from the SLV/Inventory rests at 326.049 million oz

Sept 15./no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 327.088 million oz/

Sept 14/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 327.088 million oz/

Sept 13/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 327.088 million oz/

Sept 12.2017/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 327.088 million oz/

Sept 11.2017: no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 327.088 million oz/

Sept 8/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 327.088 million oz/

Sept 7/STRANGE!! WITH DEMAND FOR SILVER HUGE WE HAD ANOTHER 945,000 OZ WITHDRAWN. NO DOUBT THAT THIS IS CRIMINAL ACTIVITY AS SILVER IS WITHDRAWN AND USED TO CONTAIN THE RISE IN PRICE/INVENTORY RESTS AT 327.088 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 6/STRANGE WITH A HUGE DEMAND FOR SILVER THROUGHOUT THE WORLD THESE DOORKNOBS WITHDRAW A HUGE 3.148 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.033 MILLION OZ

Sept 5/2017: no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 331.178 million oz/

Sept 1/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 331.178 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 31/STRANGE!! a huge withdrawal of 2.019 million oz with silver up today./INVENTORY RESTS AT 331.178 MILLION OZ

August 30/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 333.178 million oz

August 29/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.178 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 28/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 333.178 million oz/

AUGUST 25/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.178 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 24/A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.229 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.178 MILLION OZ

August 23/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 334.407 million oz

August 22/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 334.407 million oz.

AUGUST 21/no change in silver inventory/inventory rests at 334.407 million oz/

August 18/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REST AT 334.407 MILLION OZ

August 17/A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.418 MILLION OZ LEAVES THE VAULTS OF THE SLV (WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS YESTERDAY?)/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.407 MILLION OZ

Sept 21.2017:

Inventory 324.915  million oz
end
  • 6 Month MM GOFO

    Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration

    + 1.37%
  • 12 Month MM GOFO
    + 1.57%
  • 30 day trend

end

Major gold/silver trading/commentaries for THURSDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.

GOLD/SILVER

Gold Investment “Compelling” As Fed May “Kill The Business Cycle”

Gold Investment “Compelling” As Fed Likely To Create Next Recession

Is the Fed about to kill the business cycle?
16 out of 19 rate-hike cycles in past 100 years ended in recession
– Total global debt at all time high – see chart
Global debt is 327% of world GDP – ticking timebomb…
– Gold has beaten the market (S&P 500) so far this century
– Safe haven demand to increase on debt and equity risk
– Gold looks very cheap compared to overbought markets
– Important to diversify into safe haven gold now

by Frank Holmes via Gold.org

Global debt levels have reached unprecedented levels, pension deficits are rising and the US interest rate cycle is on the turn. Frank Holmes, chief executive of highly regarded investment management group US Global Investors, believes that investing in gold is a logical response to current, unnerving conditions.

For centuries, investors and savers have depended on gold in times of economic and political strife, and its investment case right now is as compelling as it’s ever been.

As I write this, gold is trading above US$1,330 an ounce after a strong rally that took the metal to its highest levels since August 2016. Tensions over North Korea, a weakening US dollar, political uncertainty in Washington, an overvalued US stock market, surging public and private debt and negative interest rates around the world have all boosted demand for gold as a reliable and time-tested store of value.

I often refer to this as the ‘Fear Trade.’ For centuries, investors and savers have depended on gold in times of economic and political strife, and its investment case right now is as compelling as it’s ever been.

Let’s look at debt for the moment. Most market-watchers are aware that US government debt currently stands at just under US$20 trillion, an unfathomably large figure that will only continue to climb as the interest compounds.

Chart 1: A Ticking Time Bomb?

U.S. Total debt balance in Trillions of dollars

Source: New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel, Equifax, U.S. Global Investors

Worrying as this is, it doesn’t take into account other forms of debt that I believe pose an even greater risk to capital markets. US household debt, which includes mortgages, auto loans, credit cards and the like, reached a mind-boggling $12.73 trillion in the first quarter of 2017, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. That’s $150 billion more than the end of 2016 and $50 billion above the previous peak set in 2008.

Even more worrisome is the fact that the number of delinquencies grew for the second straight quarter this year, as more income-strapped Americans binged on credit. As we all remember, this is what ultimately burst the housing bubble only 10 years ago.

Total global debt levels reached an astronomical US$217 trillion in the first quarter – that’s 327% of world GDP.

But let’s not stop there. According to the highly-respected Institute of International Finance (IIF), total global debt levels reached an astronomical $217 trillion in the first quarter—that’s 327 percent of world gross domestic product (GDP). Note that before the financial crisis, global debt was “only” around $150 trillion, meaning we’ve added close to $70 trillion in as little as a decade. Much of the leveraging occurred in emerging markets, specifically China, which is spending big on domestic and international infrastructure projects. Some are calling this mountain of debt “the mother of all bubbles” or “the everything bubble.”

Paying down this debt will not be easy, whatever you call it.

The situation is aggravated because global pension levels are sharply on the rise. People are living and drawing pensions for longer periods of time and birth rates are in decline in many advanced economies, so there aren’t enough new workers to help pay for those pensions. In May, the World Economic Forum (WEF) estimated that by 2050, the size of the retirement savings gap—unfunded pensions, in other words—could grow to as much as $400 trillion. The US alone adds about $3 trillion every year to the pension deficit.

Chart 2: Total global debt stands at all-time high

In trillions of dollars, first quarter of each year

Source: IIF, BIS, Haver, U.S. Global Investors

I’ve always recommended a 10% weighting in gold – 5% in bullion, the other 5% in quality gold stocks, mutual funds and ETFs.

Central banks’ efforts to promote economic growth through monetary easing haven’t exactly been a raging success, nor can they continue on this path forever. Plus, near-zero interest rates are precisely what encouraged such inflated leveraging in the first place.

You can probably tell where I’m headed with all of this. Savvy investors and savers might very well see current imbalances as a sign to shift part of their portfolio out of risk assets and into gold and other safe haven investments. I’ve always recommended a 10 percent weighting in gold—5 percent in bullion, the other 5 percent in quality gold stocks, mutual funds and ETFs.

Is the Fed about to kill the business cycle?

Gold’s investment case becomes even more compelling when we consider the US Federal Reserve’s (the Fed’s) next moves—specifically hiking interest rates and reducing its balance sheet. Both actions have historically preceded recessions, according to 100 years’ worth of data.

It’s common knowledge that the Fed is actively in the process of gradually raising rates but a significant adjustment to its balance sheet is also coming sooner than many anticipated. In a recent address to the Economic Club of Las Vegas, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco John Williams said the Fed is likely to begin normalising monetary policy as soon as the fall. This includes unwinding its $4.5 trillion balance sheet, composed of long-term Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities (MBS). The process could take up to four years to complete.

As I said, this poses a real risk for investors. According to financial management firm Incrementum Capital Partners, 16 out of 19 rate-hike cycles in the past 100 years ended in recession. The results were the same in five of the six times the Fed reduced its balance sheet, according to research firm MKM Partners.

“Business cycles don’t just end accidentally,” says MKM’s chief economist Mike Darda. “They are killed by the Fed. If the Fed tightens enough to induce a recession, that’s the end of the business cycle.”

This is where that 10 percent in gold would come in especially handy. Gold has historically shared a very low to negative correlation with stocks. Consider 2008, the height of the financial crisis: US stocks ended the year down more than 37 percent, while gold held its value, returning 3.4 percent.

Gold’s investment case becomes even more compelling when we consider the US Federal Reserve’s next moves.

Gold has beaten the market so far this century

The current equity bull market, now in its eighth year, is one of the longest in US history—it could very well become the longest. Even so, gold has outperformed the S&P 500 so far this century, returning 86 percent more than the market if we index both asset classes at 100 on December 31, 1999. Over the past 17 years, the S&P 500 has undergone two major contractions. Gold, meanwhile, has held its value well, highlighting its appeal as a portfolio diversifier.

Gold also looks very cheap compared to markets that are highly overbought at the moment. North Korea fears notwithstanding, major averages are regularly hitting fresh all-time highs. As such, the gold-to-S&P 500 ratio is near 10-year lows, meaning the yellow metal is extremely undervalued.

It’s worth noting too, that the stock market rally has been propelled disproportionately by only a handful of tech stocks, such as Apple, Amazon, Facebook and Alphabet. As of August 1, the S&P 500 was up 10.5 percent year-to-date, but if information technology stocks were removed, the index was up around 7.5 percent, a significant difference.

That so few stocks have contributed so much makes the market particularly vulnerable, should those stocks see a major correction. It also underscores the need to diversify into safe haven assets, such as gold.

Chart 3: Gold has beaten the market so far this century

Gold and S&P 500. Indexed at 100 December 31, 1999, as of July 31, 2017

Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Source: Bloomberg; U.S. Global Investors via Gold.org

Courtesy of Gold.org

News and Commentary

Gold slides below $1,300 after Fed’s rate-hike hint (MarketWatch.com)

Crude Oil Price Hit 4-Month High, Gold Drops on FOMC Outcome (DailyFX.com)

Gold falls 1 pct, hits 3-week low after Fed statement (Reuters.com)

Fed approves October reversal of historic stimulus, leaves rates unchanged (CNBC.com)

Fed keeps rates steady, approves portfolio cuts in October (Reuters.com)

 Total global debt stands at all-time high. Source: Source: IIF, BIS, Haver, U.S. Global Investors

Gold’s Investment Case “Compelling” As Fed Likely To Create Next Recession – Holmes (Gold.org)

‘Secret Monetary Policy’: Who Manipulates Gold Prices and Why (SputnikNews.com)

How “Bit Bugs” Are The New Gold Bugs (StansBerrychurcHouse.com)

World’s Biggest Wealth Fund Hits $1 Trillion (Bloomberg.com)

America Is Going Broke… and Nobody Cares (BonnerAndPartners.com)

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

21 Sep: USD 1,297.35, GBP 960.56 & EUR 1,089.00 per ounce
20 Sep: USD 1,314.90, GBP 970.53 & EUR 1,094.79 per ounce
19 Sep: USD 1,308.45, GBP 969.30 & EUR 1,091.25 per ounce
18 Sep: USD 1,314.40, GBP 970.16 & EUR 1,100.68 per ounce
15 Sep: USD 1,325.00, GBP 977.32 & EUR 1,109.16 per ounce
14 Sep: USD 1,323.00, GBP 1,002.44 & EUR 1,111.58 per ounce
13 Sep: USD 1,332.25, GBP 1,003.85 & EUR 1,112.43 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

21 Sep: USD 16.95, GBP 12.58 & EUR 14.24 per ounce
20 Sep: USD 17.38, GBP 12.84 & EUR 14.48 per ounce
19 Sep: USD 17.15, GBP 12.70 & EUR 14.31 per ounce
18 Sep: USD 17.53, GBP 12.94 & EUR 14.66 per ounce
15 Sep: USD 17.70, GBP 13.03 & EUR 14.81 per ounce
14 Sep: USD 17.75, GBP 13.40 & EUR 14.91 per ounce
13 Sep: USD 17.91, GBP 13.50 & EUR 14.94 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– “This Is Where The Next Financial Crisis Will Come From” – Deutsche Bank
– Global Debt Bubble Understated By $13 Trillion Warn BIS
– Bitcoin Price Falls 40% In 3 Days Underlining Gold’s Safe Haven Credentials
– Gold Up, Markets Fatigued As War Talk Boils Over
– Oil Rich Venezuela Stops Accepting Dollars
– Massive Equifax Hack Shows Cyber Risk to Deposits and Investments Today
– British People Suddenly Stopped Buying Cars
– Buy Gold for Long Term as “Fiat Money Is Doomed”
– Conor McGregor – Worth His Weight In Gold?
– Gold Has 2% Weekly Gain,18% Higher YTD – Trump’s Debt Ceiling Deal Hurts Dollar
– ‘Things Have Been Going Up For Too Long’ – Goldman CEO
– Physical Gold In Vault Is “True Hedge of Last Resort” – Goldman Sachs
– Bitcoin Falls 20% as Mobius and Chinese Regulators Warn

end

Trading in the metals this morning: base metals being massacred

(courtesy zerohedge)

Metals Massacre – Iron Ore Enters Bear Market, Copper Collapses To 1-Month Lows

The hype surrounding the credit-fueled resurgence in base metals in the first half of 2017 has crashed and burned on the altar of reality in China’s slowdown with industrial metals from copper to iron ore and zinc all plunging in the last two weeksOdd that we don’t hear much from mainstream business media discussing the implications for a global coordinated economic growth narrative

Since the start of September, industrial metals have been hammered (as stocks soared)…

Iron Ore prices have crashed into a bear market

As Citi describes it, complete carnage in Iron Ore today down over 6% on day as local specs reduce length ahead of holiday in China on the first week of October as bearish sentiment continues to gather pace. After peaking in August at $80 as we saw surging demand for high grade ores. Iron Ore started to trend down in early September, which reflected that fundamentals had begun to turn weaker. The tightness of high-grade ore market I referred to is now starting to gradually resolve as more supply coming online from Brazil and Australia. Demand is softer, as we see little improvement in China’s steel consumption . Steel inventory also built as environmental inspections and steel mills’ enter maintenance. We remain bearish on the long-term outlook of iron ore and expect 2018 prices to average $53/t so a ways to go. Needless to say today’s move in IO has driven base prices lower with Nickel and Zinc taking the brunt.

Even Dr.Copper has given up…

And here’s some more grist for the doubters who scoffed at copper’s rally to a three-year high earlier this month.

The metal for immediate delivery on the London Metal Exchange cost $40.75 less than benchmark three-month futures on Tuesday, the biggest discount since 2009.

That market structure, known as contango, shows “there’s no part of the world where copper is really scarce,” said Rene van der Kam, Singapore-based managing director of trader Viant Commodities Pte Ltd. He says to expect more losses after a pullback in prices this week.

And finally, as we warned previously, bear in mind that the lagged response to China’s credit impulse is about to hit base metals… The rise and fall in China’s credit impulse that has been so highly correlated (on a lagged basis) with industrial metals for the last eight years…

It appears “Dr.Copper” and his economics afficcianados are about to be relegated to “ignore” status once again.

end

(courtesy John Hathaway,JohnEmbry/Kingworldnews)

Don’t be fooled by anti-gold disinformation, Embry and Hathaway say

 Section: 

10:45a ET Wednesday, September 20, 2017

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Sprott Asset Management’s John Embry tells King World News today that market rigging by Western governments is blatant now and not fooling Asia, which is responding by buying gold in anticipation of the end of the U.S. dollar’s use as the world reserve currency. Embry’s interview is excerpted at KWN here:

http://kingworldnews.com/john-embry-the-charade-is-about-to-end-and-the-…

Tocqueville gold fund manager John Hathaway has a similar comment in an interview with Kitco News, which is headlined, “Don’t Be Fooled — Central Banks Are Buying Gold”:

http://www.kitco.com/news/video/show/Precious-Metals-Summit/1709/2017-09…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

a JOKE:  LBMA pledges transparency with member dealings with government on gold swaps and gold related derivatives.

(courtesy GATA>)

LBMA pledges ‘transparency,’ so where are the gold swaps and leases?

 Section: 

11:08a ET Wednesday, September 20, 2017

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Writing in the September issue of the World Gold Council’s Gold Investor newsletter, London Bullion Market Association Chief Executive Ruth Crowell writes that the organization is committed to delivering transparency and so its members will disclose their transactions with governments, central banks, and the Bank for International Settlements, including gold swaps, leases, and gold-related derivatives.

Crowell’s essay is headlined “LBMA — Delivering Transparency and Integrity” and is posted at the World Gold Council’s internet site here —

https://www.gold.org/research/gold-investor/gold-investor-september-2017…

— and if you believe this preface or anything the LBMA says about “transparency and integrity,” you shouldn’t have anything to do with gold, which remains, with the LBMA’s help, the secret knowledge of the financial universe.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

This is not a surprise:  the Russian government again shows its knows all about the gold suppression game orchestrated by the western banks and they are taking advantage of it by picking up much needed physical gold to add to their reserves

(courtesy Dmitry Speck/GATA)

Russian government again shows it knows all about gold price suppression

 Section: 

7:40p ET Wednesday, September 20, 2017

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Interviewing GATA’s friend the gold market researcher, author, and financial letter writer Dimitri Speck of SeasonalCharts.com, the Russian government news agency Sputnik today demonstrates again that Russia knows all about the gold price suppression scheme of Western governments and central banks.

Russia’s acknowledgment of the scheme dates at least to the speech given to the London Bullion Market Association meeting in Moscow in June 2004 by the deputy chairman of the Bank of Russia, Oleg Mozhaiskov, a speech whose only words in English were “Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee”:

http://www.gata.org/node/4235

Speck today told Sputnik that the gold price suppression scheme’s purpose is to impair gold’s competition with Western government currencies and enable Western governments to keep their interest rates low.

The interview with Speck is headlined “‘Secret Monetary Policy’: Who Manipulates Gold and Why” and it’s posted at Sputnik here:

https://sputniknews.com/business/201709201057560325-who-manipulates-gold…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end



Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight

 
 i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/yuan MUCH WEAKER AT 6.5919 (DEVALUATION SOUTHBOUND   /OFFSHORE YUAN MOVES SLIGHTLY STRONGER TO ONSHORE AT   6.5887/ Shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 8.18 POINTS OR 0.24%  / HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 17.47 POINTS OR 0.06% 

2. Nikkei closed UP 37.02 POINTS OR 0.18%    /USA: YEN FALLS TO 112.53

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN     ( /USA dollar index RISES TO  92.54 /Euro UP to 1.1892

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES  TO  -+.04%/ GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION    !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 112.53/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD FINALLY IN THE POSITIVE/BANK OF JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR YIELD CURVE AS THEY PURCHASE ALL BONDS TO GET TO ZERO RATE!!

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI::  50,15 and Brent: 55.87

3f Gold DOWN/Yen UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS  AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP for Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO  +.469%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN  to 2.119%    

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO  : 5.579???  

3k Gold at $1292.75  silver at:16.95 (8:15 am est)   SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50 

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 8/100 in  roubles/dollar) 58.12-

3m oil into the 50 dollar handle for WTI and 55 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation  (already upon us). This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/China forced to do QE!! as it lowers its yuan value to the dollar/GOT A GOOD SIZED DEVALUATION SOUTHBOUND 

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 112.53 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning  0.9736 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1591 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017 

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to  +0.469%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”.  Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.276% early this morning. Thirty year rate  at 2.817% /POLICY ERROR/FLATTENING OF THE CURVE)

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)

Traders Yawn After Fed’s “Great Unwind”

One day after the much anticipated Fed announcement in which Yellen unveiled the “Great Unwinding” of a decade of aggressive stimulus, it has been a mostly quiet session as the Fed’s intentions had been widely telegraphed (besides the December rate hike which now appears assured), despite a spate of other central bank announcements, most notably out of Japan and Norway, both of which kept policy unchanged as expected.

“Yesterday was a momentous day – the beginning of the end of QE,” Bhanu Baweja a cross-asset strategist at UBS, told Bloomberg TV. “The market for the first time is now moving closer to the dots as opposed to the dots moving towards the market. There’s more to come on that front. ”

Despite the excitement, S&P futures are unchanged, holding near all-time high as European and Asian shares rise in volumeless, rangebound trade, and oil retreated while the dollar edged marginally lower through the European session after yesterday’s Fed-inspired rally which sent the the dollar to a two-month high versus the yen on Thursday and sent bonds and commodities lower. Along with dollar bulls, European bank stocks cheered the coming higher interest rates which should help their profits, rising over 1.5% as a weaker euro helped the STOXX 600. Shorter-term, 2-year U.S. government bond yields steadied after hitting their highest in nine years.

“Initial reaction is fairly straightforward,” said Saxo Bank head of FX strategy John Hardy. “They (the Fed) still kept the December hike (signal) in there and the market is being reluctantly tugged in the direction of having to price that in.”

The key central bank event overnight was the BoJ, which kept its monetary policy unchanged as expected with NIRP maintained at -0.10% and the 10yr yield target at around 0%. The BoJ stated that the decision on yield curve control was made by 8-1 decision in which known reflationist Kataoka dissented as he viewed that it was insufficient to meeting inflation goal by around fiscal 2019, although surprisingly he did not propose a preferred regime. BOJ head Kuroda spoke after the BoJ announcement, sticking to his usual rhetoric: he stated that the bank will not move away from its 2% inflation target although the BOJ “still have a distance to 2% price targe” and aded that buying equity ETFs was key to hitting the bank’s inflation target, resulting in some marginal weakness in JPY as he spoke, leaving USD/JPY to break past FOMC highs, and print fresh session highs through 112.70, the highest in two months, although it has since pared some losses.

Japanese shares extended this week’s rally as the yen fell on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone, even as the benchmark Topix index came off earlier highs after the BOJ kept its policy rate unchanged. “It’s been reaffirmed that BOJ will stand by its super easy monetary policy, making the yield gap between the U.S. and Japan widen further,” said Ikuo Mitsui, a fund manager at Aizawa Securities Co. in Tokyo. But “given the recent sharp gains in Japanese equities, investors may opt to stay on the sidelines to see how U.S. long-term yields and the foreign-exchange rate moves from here overnight.” The benchmark Topix index is heading for its best monthly performance since December, with automakers and banks contributing most to the gauge’s gains Thursday.

The dollar pared an earlier advance and West Texas crude fell. The Bloomberg dollar index extended gains overnight, rising a second day in the aftermath of the Fed meeting while gold dropped below $1,300 per ounce. EURUSD traded in a tight 1.1866-1.1919 range while the ten fell to a 2-month low of 112.72 versus USD as BOJ kept policy unchanged. Australian dollar extends overnight weakness amid declines in base metals, coupled with S&P downgrade of China’s sovereign rating.

Asia’s emerging-market currencies fell, led by South Korea’s won, after the Federal Reserve maintained its forecast for another interest-rate increase this year and indicated three more hikes were likely in 2018. The MSCI EM Asia Index of stocks and most sovereign bonds declined.

“The dollar could see a further technical rally and we should see weaker Asian currencies,” said Sim Moh Siong, a currency strategist at Bank of Singapore. “The message is that the Fed would like to get on with the job in terms of tightening. The market was only pricing one rate hike by the end of next year.”

The Norwegian krone spiked higher after the central bank kept its interest rate unchanged at 0.5%, but adjusted the rate-path forecast higher. The new rate path now begins rising in Q2 18, more hawkish than expected, but still first full hike not before Q3 19.

The hawkish Fed, weakened Asutralia’s ASX 200 (-0.9%) with gold miners weighed after the precious metal felt the brunt of a firmer USD in the aftermath of the Fed, while Nikkei 225 (+0.4%) outperformed on a weaker currency. Chinese markets were indecisive with Hang Seng (Unch.) and Shanghai Comp (+0.2%) choppy after a reserved PBoC operation and an increase in Hong Kong money market rates, although Macau gambling names were higher on optimism ahead of National Day holidays.  Following a tumble in the Yuan after the Fed announcement driven by a jump in the US Dollar, the Chinese currency was largely unchanged despite a downgrade by S&P, which cut China’s sovereign rating to A+, it first since 1999. While Chinese stocks were little changed, it was the latest move lower in Chinese commodities that has attracted attention, and overnight Iron Ore traded in Dalian slid by 4.7%, entering a bear market, down 22% from recent highs on declining demand, tougher seasonal pollution controls to come and less WMP “shadow capital” allocated to the commodity sector.

European equities advanced, led by banks on the back of the plunge in the Euro after yesterday’s USD surge, while bonds followed Treasuries lower as investors digested the Federal Reserve’s plans to pursue both higher interest rates and balance-sheet reduction in the coming months. The Stoxx 600 Index, up 0.2% at publication, was also boosted by the previous session’s drop in the euro, while lenders including Intesa Sanpaolo SpA benefited from the prospect of higher yields.

In rates, as the 10-year Treasury yield edged further toward 2.30% almost all government bond yields in Europe followed it higher: Germany’s 10-year yield rose three basis points to 0.47 percent, the highest in five weeks. Britain’s 10-year yield gained three basis points to 1.37 percent, the highest in seven months.

The higher dollar strained commodity markets, where the underlying raw materials are priced in the U.S. currency. Gold hit a three-week low of $1,296 per ounce, Brent and WTI oil eased away from multi-month highs, while industrial metals copper and nickel tumbled 1 and 3 percent to more than one-month lows. Brent crude futures LCOc1 last stood at $56.17, down slightly from late U.S. levels as U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate drifted down to $50.64.

Data include jobless claims and Philadelphia Fed business outlook. Scholastic and Presidio are reporting earnings.

Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk

  • The Greenback remains stronger against its pairs following the FOMC
  • BoJ, Riksbank and Norges Banks all in Focus
  • Looking ahead, highlights include: weekly jobs data, Philly Fed and ECB’s Dragh

Market snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 2,503.70
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 382.85
  • MSCI Asia down 0.7% to 163.36
  • MSCI Asia ex Japan down 0.6% to 541.44
  • Nikkei up 0.2% to 20,347.48
  • Topix up 0.05% to 1,668.74
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.06% to 28,110.33
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3,357.81
  • Sensex down 0.2% to 32,332.15
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.9% to 5,655.42
  • Kospi down 0.2% to 2,406.50
  • German 10Y yield rose 3.0 bps to 0.473%
  • Euro up 0.1% to $1.1909
  • US 10Y yield rose 1 bps to 2.27%
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 2.2 bps to 1.778%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 3.1 bps to 1.613%
  • Brent futures down 0.4% to $56.04/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,295.58
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.1% to 92.41

Top Overnight News

  • S&P Global Ratings cut China’s sovereign credit rating for first time since 1999, citing the risks from soaring debt, and revised its outlook to stable from negative. Rating was cut by one step, to A+ from AA-, the agency said in statement
  • Yellen Brushes Aside Inflation ‘Mystery’ as Fed Eyes Rate Hike
  • Google Buys HTC Talent for $1.1 Billion to Spur Devices Push
  • BOJ left its target interest rates and asset-purchase program unchanged in an 8-1 vote, with new member Goushi Kataoka objecting; Kataoka argued there was little chance of reaching the BOJ’s inflation target by the projected time frame of around fiscal 2019
  • U.K. PM May is said to be weighing whether to accept for the first time the need to discuss the EU’s demand for a “Brexit bill” of tens of billions of pounds, in a move designed to kick-start stalled negotiations
  • Swiss inflation still is low, production capacity still not fully utilized despite a moderate recovery, the franc is still highly valued, and finally the interest-rate differential with foreign assets is small, SNB President Thomas Jordan said, according to Luzerner Zeitung
  • New Zealand’s economy grew at 0.8% q/q in 2Q, matching estimates; the economy expanded 2.5% from a year earlier
  • Anadarko Will Buy Back 10 Percent of Shares as Investors Agitate
  • Beat or Miss? MiFID Will Make It Harder to Tell on Earnings Day
  • Trump Has Allies Guessing on Iran Deal as U.S. Highlights Flaws

Asia equity markets were mixed as the region digested events from US, where the FOMC announced plan to begin balance sheet normalization as anticipated, and suggested increased prospects of a 3rd rate hike for 2017 as dot plot projections showed more committee members expect another hike by year-end. This weakened ASX 200 (-0.9%) with gold miners weighed after the precious metal felt the brunt of a firmer USD in the aftermath of the Fed, while Nikkei 225 (+0.4%) outperformed on a weaker currency. Chinese markets were indecisive with Hang Seng (Unch.) and Shanghai Comp (+0.2%) choppy after a reserved PBoC operation and an increase in Hong Kong money market rates, although Macau gambling names were higher on optimism ahead of National Day holidays. 10yr JGBs opened lower to track the declines in USTs and amid the heightened risk tone in Japan, although mild support was seen on return from the break after a somewhat dovish dissent at the BoJ. PBOC injected CNY 40bln via 7-day reverse repos and CNY 20bln via 28-day reverse repos.PBoC set CNY mid-point at 6.5867 (Prev. 6.5670)

Top Asian News

  • BlackRock Sells Singapore Office Tower for $1.5 Billion to CCT
  • AIA Buys Commonwealth Bank’s Life Unit for A$3.8 Billion
  • Tencent Enters Old-School Finance With Stake in China’s CICC
  • Yen Bears Awaken as Fed Tips Hawkish While the BOJ Digs in
  • Rupee Slides With Indian Bonds on Bets Fiscal Deficit Will Widen

European equities are marginally higher across the board, aided by the Fed’s hawkish rhetoric which led to a weaker EUR. The banking sector noticeably out-performers amid the increased likelihood of a FOMC December hike, with Commerzbank extending on gains after UniCredit showed interest in a deal with the German Bank. Further reports circulated that the German Government favours a merger between the Commerzbank and France’s BNP Paribas, seeing an evident bid in the French giants. Global bonds trade around lows, following the previously stated Fed rhetoric. The UK 5-year yields have touched their highest levels since the Brexit vote. The weakness in Europe this morning has led to dealers liquidating longs, further adding to the selling pressure.

Top European News

  • EU Unyielding on Brexit Leaves May With One Choice: Pay the Bill
  • May to Test Limits of Money Pledges to Unlock Brexit Talks
  • U.K. Budget Deficit Unexpectedly Narrows in Boost for Hammond
  • The Russian Banking Analyst Who Predicted Deluge of Bailouts
  • Norway Signals Tighter Monetary Policy Amid Economic Recovery
  • Ryanair Downgraded at Kepler on Risks to Airline’s Cost Base

In currencies, the Central Bank theme continued today, noticeably from Scandinavia, as participants saw Minutes from Riksbank and an Interest Rate decision from Norway. The former noted that several board members highlighted the issue of an overheating economy, yet did note that there are no current signs of this. The SEK still saw a bid on these comments, as there is evident chatter of an overheating economy. The move was quickly retraced, as EUR bulls do remain in the market and the concerns of a heating economy were seemingly not an immediate concern. EUR/NOK saw a much firmer move following Norway’s interest rate decision, keeping their rate unchanged at 0.50%, however with increases to the medium term key policy rate resulted in EUR/NOK falling around 60pips. Kuroda spoke post BoJ, sticking to his usual rhetoric, where the BoJ kept monetary policy unchanged as expected. The decision on the yield curve control did see a lone dissenter, with new member Kataoka viewing it as insufficient to meeting the inflation goal by around 2019. The Governor stated that the bank will not move away from its 2% inflation target, resulting in some marginal weakness in JPY as he spoke, leaving USD/JPY to break past FOMC highs, and print fresh session highs through 112.70.

Commodities were mostly weaker with gold prices back below USD 1300/oz after the USD strengthened in the wake of the FOMC. Elsewhere, copper was also pressured alongside broad pressure in the complex and with selling exacerbated at the open of Chinese metals trade, while WTI took a breather from yesterday’s gains and was unchanged throughout the session.

Looking at the day ahead, the data due out includes initial jobless claims (which are expected to spike to 300k reflecting the recent storm and hurricane impacts), Philly Fed business outlook, FHFA house price index and conference board’s leading index. Away from the data, ECB President Mario Draghi is scheduled to make the keynote address at the second European Systemic  Risk Board annual conference in Frankfurt at 2.30pm BST. Shortly after this hits your email the ECB’s Smets will speak in Frankfurt at an ‘Understanding Inflation’ conference which could be worth a watch.

US Event calendar

  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 301,500, prior 284,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.98m, prior 1.94m
  • 8:30am: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, est. 17.1, prior 18.9
  • 9am: FHFA House Price Index MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.1%
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 51.9; Economic Expectations, prior 54
  • 10am: Leading Index, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
  • 10:15am: Fed’s Fisher Speaks at BOE Independence Conference, London
  • 12pm: Household Change in Net Worth, prior $2.35t

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

So what did we learn from the Fed and Yellen last night? Firstly we learnt that stopping reinvestment is a sideshow for now and that the market still cares more about the probability of a December hike and where the Fed thinks inflation is heading. Just briefly on the balance sheet run-off, they have committed to the plan from the June meeting of $10bn per month ($6bn USTs and $4bn Mortgages) with an incremental increase every 3 months until we get to $50bn. However on the rates and inflation outlook the committee and Yellen were on the hawkish side. As DB’s Peter Hooper discusses in his note, barring negative surprises in the months just ahead, the Fed is on track to raise rates once more this year and three times in 2018. Yellen recognised that inflation has been running low recently but put a higher blame on one-off factors than was perhaps anticipated. At the same time she noted that monetary policy operates with a lag and that labour market tightness will eventually push inflation up.

The complication for markets though is that beyond 2017, the FOMC will see a huge upheaval in its membership which could easily mean current member’s thoughts are meaningless in a few months time and also that Mr Trump’s fiscal plans (or lack of them) have the ability to completely change the debate. So its difficult to read too much into the current FOMC’s forecasts. However for now December is very much live with the probability of a December rate hike moving from a shade under 50% to 64% by the US close (using Bloomberg’s calculator). After trading with no great conviction in the lead up, 10y  Treasury yields spiked around 6ps higher immediately after the announcement but have retraced around 2bps of the move. The Dollar rallied with the Euro hitting $1.2033 just before the announcement but falling after to range trade between $1.1850-1.1900 into the close and where it remains in the Asian session.

Meanwhile the S&P 500 finally snapped its run of 6 consecutive sessions of moving in an intraday range of less than 0.35% to close +0.06%% (with a range of around 0.5%). However the VIX closed below 10 (9.78) for the first time since the day before Mr Trump’s “Fire and Fury” speech on August 9th. These moves came after equity and bond markets in Europe closed little changed (Stoxx 600 -0.04%, Bunds -0.9bps) although it’s worth noting the underperformance of Spanish assets (IBEX -0.83% and Spanish Bonds +2.3bps) following police raids of Catalan government offices ahead of the proposed  independence referendum. Staying with central banks, overnight we’ve had the BoJ meeting with policy left  unchanged as expected. However there was surprisingly one dissenter with new board member Kataoko voting for more stimulus. The vote was still 8-1 so it doesn’t really impact the likelihood of a change in policy soon. The Yen has been a touch weaker (now at 2-month lows) but thats as much due to Dollar strength after the Fed. Kuroda’s press conference starts at 7.30am BST. Ahead of this the Nikkei is +0.44%, with the Hang Seng +0.1% and the Shanghai Comp +0.2%.

So with the big policy meetings now out of the way, it feels like the next significant hurdle for markets in the remaining two days this week is UK PM Theresa May’s speech in Florence tomorrow. The latest   twist in the Brexit saga leading into this yesterday were the various reports suggesting that PM Theresa May was preparing to offer €20bn in budget contributions to the Europeans, and also that May had supposedly made peace with Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson following his resignation speculation on Tuesday. The EU have previously said that the UK has net liabilities of about €60bn so it remains to be  seen how May’s offer will be taken, assuming it’s true.

While we’re with the UK, the BoE hawks got a boost yesterday following the August retail sales data. Excluding fuel, sales jumped up a much better than expected +1.0% mom last month (vs. +0.1% expected) which in turn helped to push the annual rate up to +2.8% yoy from +1.7%. Including fuel, sales were also significantly better than expected (+1.0% mom vs. +0.2% expected). Separately, a BoE agents survey released yesterday reported a modest rise in labour costs in August. Sterling at one stage touched $1.3657 yesterday and a new post-Brexit high, before falling sharply after the Fed to close just below $1.35.

Over at the ECB, it is worth noting the somewhat hawkish comments from governing council member Klaas Knot yesterday. He said that “against the backdrop of an increasingly reflationary environment, the tail risk of a deflationary spiral is no longer imminent. Consequently, the main rationale for central bank asset purchases has disappeared”. Knot was also upbeat about inflation trending back to target and also downplayed concern about the recent euro appreciation. If anything the comments seemed to be somewhat on-side with the Reuters article from earlier this week which suggested that policy makers were debating the possibility of a close-ended tapering commitment, which we’d imagine is a more hawkish outcome compared to what the market is expecting.

Jumping back to politics and specifically Trump, it was interesting to note the Politico article yesterday suggesting that the ‘Big Six’ tax reform negotiators are due to release an update at some stage next week. The article suggests that the blueprint will include a corporate tax rate target of “lower than 20%” which would suggest a backing away of sorts from the 15% rate previously touted. The article also suggests that the announcement will include a move away from full and immediate expensing. The suggestion is that we should hear some of the new details in a scheduled address by President Trump on September 29th. However it’s possible that Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and NEC Director Cohn unveil details before that earlier in the week. So one to keep in mind. Also watch for a possible return of the heath care bill soon as various news outlets are suggesting that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell plans a vote next week.

Before we look at today’s calendar, in terms of the other economic data released yesterday, in Germany PPI for August was reported as nudging up a little more than expected (+0.2% mom vs. +0.1%  expected) while in the US existing home sales for August were soft (-1.7% mom vs. +0.2% expected).

Looking at the day ahead, this morning we’re kicking off with more data out of the UK with the August public sector net borrowing figures, while later this afternoon we’ll get the September consumer confidence reading for the Euro area. Over in the US the data due out includes initial jobless claims (which are expected to spike to 300k reflecting the recent storm and hurricane impacts), Philly Fed business outlook, FHFA house price index and conference board’s leading index. Away from the data, ECB President Mario Draghi is scheduled to make the keynote address at the second European Systemic  Risk Board annual conference in Frankfurt at 2.30pm BST. Shortly after this hits your email the ECB’s Smets will speak in Frankfurt at an ‘Understanding Inflation’ conference which could be worth a watch. Fellow board member Peter Praet then speaks at the same conference at 10.30pm BST

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late WEDNESDAY night/THURSDAY morning: Shanghai closed DOWN 8.18 POINTS OR 0.24%   / /Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 17.47 POINTS OR 0.06%/ The Nikkei closed UP 37.02 POINTS OR 0.18%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.92%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed WELL DOWN at 6.5919/Oil UP to 50.15 dollars per barrel for WTI and 55.87 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN . Offshore yuan trades  6.5887 yuan to the dollar vs 6.5919 for onshore yuan. NOW THE OFFSHORE MOVED A LITTLE STRONGER  TO THE ONSHORE YUAN/ ONSHORE YUAN MUCH WEAKER (TO THE DOLLAR)  AND THE OFFSHORE YUAN IS ALSO MUCH WEAKER TO THE DOLLAR AND THIS IS COUPLED WITH THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER DOLLAR. CHINA IS NOT  HAPPY TODAY 

3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA/USA

With all of the rhetoric coming from the west, South Korea decides to send aid to the North of badly needed medicinals and food.

(courtesy zerohedge)

South Korea Unexpectedly Approves Aid To Pyongyang As North Korea Calls Trump “Barking Dog”

There is no love lost in the endlessly escalating war of words and delightful soundbites between Trump and North Korea, and after the President threatened to “totally destroy” North Korea, the country’s foreign minister said Trump’s UN speech amounted to “the sound of a dog barking,” adding that Trump’s warnings are just a nonsensical “dog dream.”

“If he was thinking he could scare us with the sound of a dog barking, that’s really a dog dream,” North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong-ho told reporters in New York on Wednesday, as cited by the Yonhap news agency. Along with other world diplomats, Ri was in New York to attend the UN General Assembly. In his debut speech to the UN on Tuesday, Trump vowed to “totally destroy” North Korea if the US was forced to defend its allies. Referring North Korean leader Kim Jong Un by a nickname he first used in in a tweet Sunday, Trump said: “Rocket man is on a suicide mission for himself and for his regime.”

Responding to Trump’s new nickname for North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, ‘Rocket Man’, Ri said: “I feel sorry for his aides.”

North Korean diplomats were not present for Trump’s speech.

According to CNN, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, who is also in New York, played down the possibility of a meeting with his North Korean counterpart. Pyongyang and Washington do not maintain formal diplomatic relations and the presence of North Korea’s top diplomat in the US could have afforded a rare chance for high-level, face-to-face dialogue.

Tillerson told reporters he did not believe he could have a “matter-of-fact discussion with North Korea because we don’t know how their means of communication and behavior will be.

Tillerson claimed there were signs that increased international pressure on North Korea was starting to bear fruit. He said there was evidence of fuel shortages in the country after the passage of recent UN sanctions, which targeted oil imports among other things. However, analysts pointed out that fuel shortages did not necessarily prove that sanctions were having an effect, as most North Koreans don’t own cars or use fuel at anywhere near the rate of the rest of the world.

Separately, Trump is scheduled to meet with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and South Korean President Moon Jae-in Thursday, two important US allies on North Korea’s doorstop. On the top of the agenda is likely to be South Korea’s surprise decision to send an $8 million aid package to North Korea. According to Reuters, the move, which runs contrary to the US and Japan’s calls for an increase in economic and diplomatic pressure, marks a resumption in South Korean aid after a break of almost two years.

The South said it planned to send $4.5 million worth of medical treatments, nursery facilities and nutritional products for children and pregnant women through the World Food Programme, and $3.5 million worth of medicinal treatments and nutritional products through UNICEF.

“We have consistently said we would pursue humanitarian aid for North Korea in consideration of the poor conditions children and pregnant women are in there, apart from political issues,” said Unification Minister Cho Myong-gyon.

UNICEF’s regional director for East Asia and the Pacific Karin Hulshof said in a statement before the decision the problems North Korean children face “are all too real”.

“Today, we estimate that around 200,000 children are affected by acute malnutrition, heightening their risk of death and increasing rates of stunting,” Hulshof said. “Food and essential medicines and equipment to treat young children are in short supply,” she said.

However as Reuters adds, the decision to send aid to North Korea “was not popular in South Korea, hitting President Moon Jae-in’s approval rating. It also raised concerns in Japan and the United States, and followed new U.N. sanctions against North Korea over its sixth nuclear test earlier this month.”

South Korea’s efforts aimed at fresh aid for North Korea dragged down Moon’s approval rating. Realmeter, a South Korean polling organization, said on Thursday Moon’s approval rating stood at 65.7 percent, weakening for a fourth straight month.

The last time the South had sent aid to the North was in December 2015 through the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) under ex-president Park Geun-hye.

Meanwhile, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said the situation on the Korean peninsula was getting more serious by the day and could not be allowed to spin out of control. “We call on all parties to be calmer than calm and not let the situation escalate out of control,” Wang said, according to a report from the state-run China News Service on Thursday.

Meeting separately with his South Korean counterpart, Kang Kyung-wha, Wang reiterated a call for South Korea to remove the U.S.-built THAAD anti-missile system, which China says is a threat to its own security. “China hopes South Korea will make efforts to reduce tension,” a report on China’s official Xinhua news agency quoted Wang as saying

Trump orders new sanctions against North Korea. Trump claims that China’s central bank has ordered all Chinese banks to stop doing business with North Korea.  This should be crippling
(courtesy zerohedge)
And now the details:  very draconian as it sanctions any financial institution doing business with North Korea.  This should bring North Korea to the table;
(courtesy zerohedge)

“Choose North Korea Or The US”: White House Releases Details On Latest N.Korean Sanctions

Earlier, when we discussed Trump’s latest executive order launching new sanctions on North Korea, we got a big picture of the crackdown but not the details. Moments ago, however, the White House unveiled the full breakdown of what Trump’s latest crackdown on North Korea will involve.

Among other things, not only will the latest crackdown on NKorea include sanctions “on any foreign financial institution that knowingly conducts or facilitates any significant transaction on behalf of certain designated individuals and entities” but also on trade, and targets North Korea’s shipping and trade networks and “issues a 180-day ban on vessels and aircraft that have visited North Korea from visiting the United States” and “also targets vessels that have engaged in a ship-to-ship transfer with a vessel that has visited North Korea within 180 days.”:

Ultimately, the White House says, “foreign financial institutions must choose between doing business with the United States or facilitating trade with North Korea or its designated supporters.”

* * *

The full statement:

FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS: The E.O. provides the authority to impose sanctions on any foreign financial institution that knowingly conducts or facilitates any significant transaction on behalf of certain designated individuals and entities, or any significant transaction in connection with trade with North Korea, on or after the date of the E.O.

  • Under this new authority, the sanctions measures can be either restrictions on correspondent or payable-through accounts or blocking sanctions.
  • The E.O. also provides the Secretary of the Treasury additional authority to block any funds originating from, destined for, or passing through accounts linked to North Korea that come within the United States or possession of a U.S. person.
  • Foreign financial institutions must choose between doing business with the United States or facilitating trade with North Korea or its designated supporters.

TRADE: The E.O. directly targets North Korea’s shipping and trade networks and issues a 180-day ban on vessels and aircraft that have visited North Korea from visiting the United States. This ban also targets vessels that have engaged in a ship-to-ship transfer with a vessel that has visited North Korea within 180 days. North Korea is dependent on its shipping networks to facilitate international trade.
The E.O. also authorizes the Secretary of the Treasury, in consultation with the Secretary of State, to impose sanctions on persons involved in:

  • Industries: The construction, energy, financial services, fishing, information technology, manufacturing, medical, mining, textiles, or transportation industries in North Korea;
  • Ports: Ownership, control, or operation of any port in North Korea, including any seaport, airport, or land port of entry;
  • Imports/Exports: at least one significant importation from or exportation to North Korea of any goods, services, or technology.

* * *

In conclusion, it is clear that this move is aimed at another crackdown on Russia: with media reports already suggesting that Russia has been “feeding” North Korea by ship, we estimate that within a week, “news” will emerge that Russia has broken Trump’s executive order, and that will serve to block out one or more Russian financial institutions, perhaps growing to “SWIFT” out the entire Russian banking system as Trump slowly but surely follows the MIC’s escalation script to a tee.

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

Japanese citizens still remain in a “deflationary mindset” as they hoard cash.  Japan just cannot get their inflation up to the target of 2%

(courtesy zerohedge)

Japan’s “Deflationary Mindset” Grows As Household Cash Hordes Reach Record High

After being force-fed more stimulus than John Belushi, and endless rounds of buying any and every asset that dares to expose any cracks in the potemkin village of fiat folly, Japan remains stuck firmly in what Abe feared so many years ago – a “deflationary mindset.”

As Bloomberg reports, cash and deposits held by Japanese households rose for 42nd straight quarter at the end of June as the nation’s consumers continued to favor saving over spending.

The “deflationary mindset” that the Bank of Japan is battling to overcome was also evident in the money laying idle in corporate coffers, which stayed near an all-time high, according to quarterly flow of funds data released by the BOJ on Wednesday.

Still, as Bloomberg optimistically notes, with the economy expanding much faster than its potential growth rate, greater inflationary pressures could be on the way, which may prompt a shift in behavior by consumers and companies… or not!

end

Seems that S and P agree with Kyle Bass:  they downgraded China’s debt to A+ due to its soaring debt growth

(courtesy zero hedge)

The Spanish government has decided to go after Catalan mayors and arrest them so a vote on independence would not occur this week. If Catalonia wants to separate it is their decision and nobody else;

(courtesy zero hedge)

Let Catalonia Decide

The Independent reports Spanish police storm Catalan government buildings to stop independence referendum.

As MishTalk’s Mike Shedlock detailsthe Catalan president described the raids as a “co-ordinated police assault” and a “de facto state of emergency”.

Spanish national police have stormed ministries and buildings belonging to Catalonia’s regional government to put a stop to the region’s independence referendum.

In the early hours of the morning armed officers arrived at various Catalan ministries, including the economy department, foreign affairs department, and social affairs department, Spanish media reports.

At least twelve Catalan officials are said to have been arrested, including the chief aide to Catalonia’s deputy prime minister, Josep Maria Jové. The arrests come as the mayors of Catalan towns who back the referendum were yesterday questioned by state prosecutors.

Pro-independence crowds have formed outside the regional ministries in support of the provincial government and in protest against the raids and searches.

Speaking at lunchtime Carles Puigdemont, the president of the Catalonian government, said the Spanish government had “de facto suspended” home rule in the province.

Spanish Assembly Rejects Use of Force

The tactics of prime minister Mariano Rajoy have not won him any popularity contests.

The Spanish national assembly on Wednesday rejected a motion to support the Spanish government’s heavy-handed response to the the referendum by 166 votes against to 158 in favor, after the centre-left opposition party PSOE teamed up with left-wingers Podemos and smaller separatist parties in the parliament.

After news of the raids broke on Wednesday, separatist political parties, as well as Podemos, cancelled all their planned political events for the rest of the day.

“It is unacceptable for there to be political prisoners in a European democracy. The Partido Popular leads us to an authoritarian regression that cannot be tolerated,” a spokesperson for Podemos said on social media.

Government Suspended

The Guardian reports Catalan president says Madrid is suspending region’s autonomy.

The Catalan president has accused the Spanish government of effectively suspending the region’s autonomy and declaring a de facto state of emergency. Police officers raided Catalan government offices on Wednesday and arrested 12 senior officials in a bid to stop an independence referendum being held in less than two weeks’ time.

Carles Puigdemont described the raids as a “a co-ordinated police assault” that showed that Madrid “has de facto suspended self-government and applied a de facto state of emergency” in Catalonia.

Speaking after an emergency ministerial meeting, Puigdemont vowed the poll would go ahead, adding: “We reaffirm our peaceful response. The Spanish government has crossed a red line and become a democratic disgrace.”

The mayor of Barcelona, Ada Colau, tweeted: “Searching public bodies and arresting officials for political reasons is a democratic scandal. We defend Catalan institutions.”

Best Wishes to Catalonia
Be courageous – Let the Vote Take Place!

Mayor Colau is against independence but she does want to allow the vote.

What if Britain treated Scotland the way Spain treats Catalonia?

UK MP Daniel Hannon hits the nail on the head with his Telegraph piece on Europhiles.

Imagine that, instead of agreeing terms with Alex Salmond on an independence referendum, David Cameron had prosecuted him. Suppose Tory MPs had called for troops to be deployed to prevent a vote, and for Scots to be Anglicised. Scottish voters would have felt, with justice, that they were being treated as conquered vassals and the United Kingdom would have cracked apart.

Incredibly, Spanish conservatives are taking this line on Catalonia. For many on the Spanish Right, hostility to separatism is the core of their beliefs. They justify their inflexibility by pointing to the letter of the constitution, which forbids such plebiscites, but their motive is more atavistic than legalistic. Paradoxically, they are creating the very thing they purport to oppose. You persuade people to stay by making clear they are free to leave.

Rajoy’s tactics have done nothing but drum up support for independence.

Catalonia Shortchanged?

In Catalonia’s case, the regional government says that Madrid shortchanged it by somewhere in the range of €11 billion to €15 billion in 2011 (between €1,500 and €2,000 per capita), depending on how one does the calculations. The central government countered by saying the gap was only €8.5 billion.

By the Spanish government’s own admission, Catalonia is shortchanged.

Those are 2011 numbers, from a 2015 article in Fortune, but I have seen nothing more recent.

A September 2017 BBC article, referenced below, mentions the same numbers.

Region or Nation?

With its own language, a recorded history of more than 1,000 years as a distinct region, and a population nearly as big as Switzerland’s (7.5 million), Catalonia’s claim to nationhood is serious.

The above snip from the BBC report Catalonia’s Collision Course with Madrid.

I support that view. More importantly, so do 700 mayors in the region.

Let the voting begin.

Which leaves us with the simple question – as the Spanish government attempts to ‘save’ the Catalan people from ‘themselves’ – Should Catalonia be independent?

As The Mises Institute’s Jeff Deist explainssurely Catalans, and nobody else, must answer that question.

Some Catalans consider themselves Spanish and some don’t. Many Spaniards consider Catalonia part of Spain, while some don’t. But it’s clear that a significant number of Catalans feel politically conquered, and resent it. Why should they live under a Spanish government, when their history, culture, and language are not Spanish?

It’s a fair question, and one for which western democracies have no easy answer. If democratic voting is sacrosanct, are the results also sacrosanct, whatever the outcome? Do democrats really want democracy?

Ludwig von Mises summed up the problem succinctly in Liberalism:

The situation of having to belong to a state to which one does not wish to belong is no less onerous if it is the result of an election than if one must endure it as the consequence of a military conquest.

Certainly many Hillary Clinton voters in the United States feel this way today. They don’t consider Trump a legitimate president (even aside from the electoral college issue), and are not particularly interested in respecting election results or the views of Trump voters. They feel “their” government not only does not represent them, but is actively hostile toward them.

They feel, in short, like many Catalans.

Understanding any region’s local politics and history is always a dangerous proposition for outsiders. Catalonia has a messy and complex past, dating back to the late 15th century and the nascent Kingdom of Spain. Momentum for independence from Madrid gathered throughout the 20th century, culminating in a 2014 referendum which the Spanish central government attempted to block in court. Over 80% of voters supported independence, yet only about a third of Catalans participated in the vote. It is unclear whether a scheduled October 1st vote on a new referendum will happen, given the possibility of Spanish criminal charges against the Catalan politicians behind it.

Should Secession Be Allowed for Groups We Disagree With? 

There are also very serious questions about what an independent Catalonia would mean, not only for economically wobbly Spain but also neighboring France and the EU.

Marta Hidalgo, a Spanish financial adviser and 2017 Mises University graduate, argues that Catalonia is Spain. She questions the region’s historical claims to independence, arguing that Catalan nationalism has been fraught with propaganda from those seeking to make a political movement out of a minority sentiment. She also points out that Spain is Catalonia’s principal market, propping up the Catalan economy through duties and tariffs on (otherwise) cheaper and better imports from England or Germany. And she stresses polls showing only about 2 million out of 7.5 million Catalans support secession.

But these arguments don’t address the fundamental underlying issue of self-determination. Should Catalans be allowed to make their own decisions, even if those decisions are “bad,” and we (or Spain or the EU) disagree with them?

Yes, some people would be worse off under an independent Catalan state — assuming Ms. Hidalgo is correct. But by the same token, some Spaniards may be objectively better off as a result of becoming unyoked politically from Catalonia. It’s a complex factual question, and both sides have arguments.

But whether an independent Catalonia would be better off or worse off is highly subjective, and simply not for us to decide.

Self-Determination Is the Highest Political End

For libertarians, self-determination is the highest political end. In political terms, self-determination is liberty. In an ideal world, self-determination extends all the way to the individual, who enjoys complete political sovereignty over his or her life. The often misued term for this degree of complete self-determination is anarchy.

In an imperfect world, however, libertarians should support smaller and more decentralized governments as a pragmatic step toward greater liberty. Our goal should be to devolve political power whenever possible, making states less powerful and easier to avoid. Barcelona is less ominous than Madrid. The Legislature in a US state is less fearsome than Congress in Washington DC. Street gangs are bad, but they can be avoided in ways Uncle Sam cannot.

Ultimately, the argument in favor of Catalonian independence mirrors the argument for Scottish independence in 2014:

Some … libertarians claimed that we should oppose the referendum on the grounds that it would create a new government, and thus two states would exist in the place of one. But reducing the size and scope of any single state’s dominion is healthy for liberty, because it leads us closer to the ultimate goal of self-determination at the individual level, to granting each of us sovereignty over our lives. It’s always good to reduce the number of individuals over which any government asserts authority.

Furthermore, some conservatives argue that we should not support secession movements where the breakaway movement is likely to create a government that is more “liberal” than the one it replaces. This was the case in Scotland, where younger Scots who supported the independence referendum in greater numbers hoped to create strong ties with the EU parliament in Brussels and build a Scandinavian-style welfare state run from Holyrood (never mind that Tories in London were overjoyed at the prospect of jettisoning a huge number of Labour supporters!).

But if support for the principle of self-determination is to have any meaning whatsoever, it must allow for others to make decisions with which we disagree. Political competition can only benefit all of us. What neither progressives nor conservatives understand — or worse, maybe they do understand — is that secession provides a mechanism for real diversity, a world where we are not all yoked together. It provides a way for people with widely divergent views and interests to live peaceably as neighbors instead of suffering under one commanding central government that pits them against each other.

So let Catalonia go, if it chooses.

In order to stave off a rebellion, Rajoy sends a cruise ship of 16,000 riot police into Barcelona port
such much for democracy…
(courtesy zero hedge)

To Prevent Rebellion, Spain Docks Cruise Ship Housing 16,000 Riot Police In Barcelona Port

Efforts by Madrid to stop a Catalonia independence vote, currently slated for October 1st, seem to be growing more hostile by the day.  Earlier this week Spanish police seized control of Catalonia’s finances, seeking to ensure that separatist politicians could not spend further public funds on the referendum, and conducted raids across Catalonia to confiscate ballots and campaign materials from printing shops and delivery companies.

Now, as the New York Times notes this morning, Spanish police have detained 14 people during operations conducted yesterday which included the secretary general of economic affairs, Josep Maria Jové.

The Spanish police detained more than a dozen people in the region of Catalonia on Wednesday, drastically escalating tensions between the national government and Catalan separatists. The episode occurred less than two weeks before a highly contentious referendum on independence that the government in Madrid has vowed to block.

The police raided the offices of the Catalan regional government early Wednesday and arrested at least 14 people, including Josep Maria Jové, secretary general of economic affairs. The arrests were not expected, but hundreds of mayors and other officials in Catalonia had been warned that they would be indicted if they helped organize a referendum in violation of Spanish law.

Hundreds of supporters of Catalan independence immediately took to the streets of Barcelona to protest the arrests. Jordi Sanchez, the leader of one of the region’s biggest separatist associations, used Twitter to urge Catalans to “resist peacefully,” but also to “come out and defend our institutions.”

According to Reuters, the increasingly hostile crackdown by the Spanish police has led Catalan leaders to acknowledge for the first time today that plans to hold a referendum on independence are now in doubt following the arrest of senior regional officials and the seizure of campaign material by national police.

“It is obvious that we won’t be able to vote as we would have liked,” Oriol Junqueras, deputy head and economy minister of the regional government, told local television TV3. “They have altered the rules.”

It was the first time the promoters of the referendum had acknowledged their plans were in doubt, although Junqueras said he said he was convinced voters would still turn out in numbers.

It is not yet clear whether the police operation would be enough to prevent the vote overall or if it could instead bring fresh momentum to the secession campaign.

Polls show about 40 percent of Catalans support independence although a majority want a referendum on the issue.

Rajoy

Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy of Spain

Meanwhile, as a sign of the growing hostility and Madrid’s intentions to do all that is necessary to block a vote, Bloomberg notes that Spain has hired cruise liners specifically to mount a massive force of 16,000 police in a Catalan port.

Spain has discreetly hired ferries to be moored in the Port of Barcelona as temporary housing for possibly thousands of police specially deployed to keep order in rebel Catalonia and help suppress an illegal independence referendum.

The country’s interior ministry asked Catalan port authorities to provide a berth for one ship until Oct. 3 — two days after the planned vote — saying it was a matter of state, a spokeswoman for the port said by phone Wednesday. The vessel, known as “Rhapsody,” docked in the city about 9:30 a.m. Thursday, she said.

The aim is to amass more than 16,000 riot police and other security officers by the Oct. 1 referendum, El Correo newspaper reported on its website. That would exceed the number of Catalan police, the Mossos d’Esquadra, who serve both the Catalan and central governments.

Still, the Catalan government says it can hold the vote, and recently announced that it had stored about 6,000 ballot boxes in a secret location. “The referendum will be held and is already organized,”Mr. Romeva said. “Clearly the conditions in which it will be celebrated are not those that we wished for.”

Separatist leaders, however, have accused Mr. Rajoy of plunging Catalonia into a state of emergency rather than negotiating the terms of a referendum.

“The issue that is at stake today isn’t the independence — or not — of Catalonia,” Raül Romeva, Catalonia’s foreign affairs chief, told a group of foreign correspondents in Madrid on Wednesday, “but democracy in Spain and the European Union.”

Mr. Romeva said that Catalonia would hold the referendum as planned, and that Catalan lawmakers would act to honor the result within 48 hours — meaning they would declare independence unilaterally if people voted for it.

“There is no alternative, absolutely no alternative,” he said. “There are only two projects now on the table: a democratic project or repression.”

Now,why do we have a feeling that placing a riot police force of 16,000 in a Catalan port, ready to pounce at a moment’s notice, will not help reduce the local push for independence…

5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

 

7. OIL ISSUES

8. EMERGING MARKET

VENEZUELA

end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00 am

Euro/USA   1.1892 UP .0019/REACTING TO  + huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:/TRUMP HEALTH CARE DEFEAT//ITALIAN REFERENDUM DEFEAT/AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/ /USA FALLING INTEREST RATES AGAIN/HOUSTON FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES ALL GREEN 

USA/JAPAN YEN 112.53 DOWN 0.014(Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/SIGNALS U TURN WITH INCREASED NEGATIVITY IN NIRP/JAPAN OUT OF WEAPONS TO FIGHT ECONOMIC DISASTER/   

GBP/USA 1.3473 DOWN .0014 (Brexit  March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED

THERESA MAY FORMS A NEW GOVERNMENT/STARTS BREXIT TALKS

USA/CAN 1.2362 UP .0018 (CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA)

Early THIS THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 12 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level  RISING to 1.1990; / Last night the Shanghai composite CLOSED  DOWN 8.18 POINTS OR 0.24%     / Hang Sang  CLOSED  DOWN 17.47 POINTS OR 0.06% /AUSTRALIA  CLOSED DOWN 0.92% / EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED ALL GREEN 

The NIKKEI: this THURSDAY morning CLOSED UP 37.02 POINTS OR 0.18%  

Trading from Europe and Asia:
1. Europe stocks  OPENED  IN THE GREEN

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / : Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 37.02 POINTS OR 0.18%  / SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 8.18 POINTS OR 0.24%   /Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.92% /Nikkei (Japan)CLOSED UP 37.02 POINTS OR 0.18%   / INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1293.40

silver:$16.97

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield:  2.276% !!! UP 3   IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY night in basis points and it is trading JUST BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%.

The 30 yr bond yield  2.812, DOWN 1/4 IN BASIS POINTS  from WEDNESDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 92.54 UP 3  CENT(S) from WEDNESDAY’s close. 

This ends early morning numbers  THURSDAY MORNING

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And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.427% UP 7  in basis point(s) yield from WEDNESDAY 

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.04%  UP 1  in   basis point yield from WEDNESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.6222% UP 4  IN basis point yield from WEDNESDAY 

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.11 UP 4 POINTS  in basis point yield from WEDNESDAY 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 49 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: +.455% DOWN 1  IN  BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY

END

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IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM 

Euro/USA 1.1935 UP .0061 (Euro UP 61 Basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/

USA/Japan: 1112.53 DOWN 0.013(Yen UP 1  basis points/ 

Great Britain/USA 1.3575 UP  0.0004( POUND UP 4 BASIS POINTS)

USA/Canada 1.2339 DOWN .0004(Canadian dollar UP 4 basis points AS OIL ROSE TO $50.63

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This afternoon, the Euro was UP  by 61 basis points to trade at 1.1935

The Yen ROSE to 112.53 for a GAIN of 1  Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE  

The POUND ROSE BY 86  basis points, trading at 1.3575/ 

The Canadian dollar ROSE by 4 basis points to 1.2339,  WITH WTI OIL RISING TO :  $50.63

The USA/Yuan closed at 6.590/
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.04%  UP 1 IN  BASIS POINTS / yield/ 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 3  IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 2.2710% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic  USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.801 DOWN 2  in basis points on the day /

Your closing USA dollar index, 92.25  DOWN 25 CENT(S)  ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/BREAKS RESISTANCE OF 92.00 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 1:00 PM EST

London:  CLOSED DOWN  5.05 POINTS OR 0.11%
German Dax :CLOSED UP 30.86 POINTS OR 0.25%
Paris Cac  CLOSED UP 25.63 POINTS OR 0.49% 
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 4.90 POINTS OR 0.05%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 136.15 POINTS OR 0.61% 

The Dow closed down 53.36 OR 0.24%

NASDAQ WAS closed DOWN 33.35  POINTS OR 0.52%  4.00 PM EST

WTI Oil price;  50.63  1:00 pm; 

Brent Oil: 56.63 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE CROSS:  57.82 DOWN 37/100 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 37 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES TO  +0.455%  FOR THE 10 YR BOND  4.PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today

Closing Price for Oil, 5 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 5:00 PM:$50.63

BRENT: $56.63

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.2765%  (ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 2.70% BLOWS UP THE GLOBE)

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.803% (yield curve flattens)

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS:  1.1941 UP .0067

USA/JAPANESE YEN:112.51  DOWN  0.037

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 92.18  DOWN 33  cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.3581 : up 91 POINTS FROM LAST NIGHT  

Canadian dollar: 1.2328 DOWN 15 BASIS pts 

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: +0.455%

END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

Yield Curve Collapse To 10-Year Lows Kills Dow Win Streak (But Banks Surge)

 

After The Fed, gold is down, the yield curve is collapsing, stocks are clinging on for dear life…

The Dow had a 9 day win streak going in (3rd such streak this year)…But it’s over now… (NOTE the ramp into the European close marked the end of the day’s gains) – AAPL, PG, and JNJ accounted for 50 of the Dow’s down points

S&P 2,500 was rescued once again with a VIX clubbing…

All the major indices are lower post-Fed (with Nasdaq’s big plunge on AAPL weakness early on)…

VIX clubbed like a baby seal…

Very unseasonably…

FANGs were panic bid (as AAPL tumbled)…

AAPL bounced off its 100DMA but remained notably lower…

‘safe haven’ from ‘no brainer’…

Financials keep getting sucked higher (up 9 of last 11 days) as Utes and Retailers slump…

Financials are testing up towards recent cycle highs back to Dec 2007 highs…

Financials continue to shrug off the post-Fed yield curve collapse...(and as @Greener300 reminded us, trading volumes are also down 20% QoQ) – This is a quite shocking level of dissonance…

As the yield curve crashes to its flattest since 2007…the same level at which both of the last recessions started!!

On the week, yields are up across the curve but the decoupling between the long-end and the rest is dramatic…

With the 30Y yield back below its pre-Fed levels…

Dec Rate Hike Odds jumped to 67% (so still a 1 in 3 chance The Fed won’t do it)…

The Dollar Index extended gains from The Fed early on but ended the day unchanged…

And if President Trump’s approval ratings are anything to go by, things are about to get hotter for the usd…

Another ugly day for Bitcoin amid chatter of liquidations from BTCChina (note that BTC is down 22% in Sept – the worst month since Jan 2015)

Gold remains the biggest loser post-Fed with the dollar higher…

and having dropped below $1300, it appears the precious metals’ slide is also weighing on Bitcoin…

On the week, WTI continues to hold its gain as copper and PMs slide…

end

the flattening of the yield curve generally flashes recession !!

(courtesy zerohedge)

Yield Curve Flashes Recession Warning In Collapse To 10 Year Lows

Since The Fed unveiled its cunning plan to unwind the balance sheet ever so gradually and in an ever so well-telegraphed manner, the US Treasury yield curve has collapsed!

Banks do not care as the yield curve has crashed to its flattest since 2007…

In fact, the collapse to just 91bps places the yield curve right at the start of both of the last two recessions...

So, no! You do not need to invert the yield curve to see a recession – in fact we are already there.

end

An excellent commentary on how the Petrodollar is now under attack and what they means for the declining uSA dollar:

(courtesy Darius Shatahmasebi/AntiMedia.org

that about does it for tonight

To all our Jewish friends out there, we wish you a very happy and healthy New Year

I will see you FRIDAY  night

Harvey.

 

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