GOLD: $1288.40 UP $7.20
Silver: $17.25 UP 25 cents
Closing access prices:
SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)
SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1290.80 DOLLARS PER OZ
NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: $1277.70
PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $13.10(premiums getting larger)
SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1292;30
NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1279.20
Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$13.10(PREMIUMS GETTING LARGER)
LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1283.40
NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1283.40
LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1286.40
NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. 1286.40
For comex gold:
NOTICES FILINGS TODAY FOR OCT CONTRACT MONTH: 3 NOTICE(S) FOR 300 OZ.
TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 2439 FOR 243,900 OZ (7.586TONNES)
3 NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR
Total number of notices filed so far this month: 779 for 3,895,000 oz
Bitcoin: $5569 bid /$5589 offer DOWN $16.00 (MORNING)
BITCOIN CLOSING;$5681.00 BID/$5699.00 UP $95.00
Let us have a look at the data for today
In silver, the total open interest SURPRISINGLY FELL BY ONLY 84 contracts from 191,928 DOWN TO 191,844 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING (DOWN 2 CENTS). THE CROOKS ARE STILL HAVING AN AWFUL TIME TRYING TO COVER THEIR MASSIVE SILVER SHORTS. IT IS OBVIOUS THAT WE MUST HAVE HAD MINIMAL BANKER SHORT COVERING AND THUS THE REASON FOR ANOTHER ATTEMPTED RAID LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING AND THAT ENDED IN DISASTER FOR OUR BOYS!!.
RESULT: A TINY SIZED FALL IN OI COMEX WITH THE 2 CENT PRICE FALL. OUR BANKERS COULD NOT COVER ANY OF THEIR HUGE SHORTFALL AND THUS ANOTHER CONTINUAL RAID WAS CALLED UPON WHICH ENDED IN FAILURE .
In ounces, the OI is still represented by just UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.960 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 137% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).
FOR THE NEW FRONT OCT MONTH/ THEY FILED: 3 NOTICE(S) FOR 15,000 OZ OF SILVER.
In gold, the open interest FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE 3856 CONTRACTS WITH THE FALL IN PRICE OF GOLD ($3.75) . The new OI for the gold complex rests at 524,944 .OUR BANKER FRIENDS COULD ONLY COVER A SMALL AMOUNT OF THEIR GOLD SHORTS SO THEY CONTINUED WITH THEIR CONSTANT TORMENT LAST NIGHT AND EARLIER THIS MORNING W
Result: A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN OI WITH THE FALL IN PRICE IN GOLD ($3.75). WE HAD SOME BANKER GOLD SHORT COVERING. THEY NEEDED MUCH MORE GOLD/SILVER LEAVES TO FALL SO THEY CONTINUED WITH THEIR TORMENT AND THAT ENDED IN COMPLETE FAILURE.
we had: 3 notice(s) filed upon for 300 oz of gold.
With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:
Tonight , NO CHANGES in gold inventory at the GLD/
Inventory rests tonight: 853.13 tonnes.
Today: A HUGE change in inventory: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF .944 MILLION OZ
DESPITE THE GOOD SIZED GAIN IN PRICE YESTERDAY (25 CENTS)
INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.327 MILLION OZ
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1. Today, we had the open interest in silver FELL BY A TINY 84 contracts from 191,928 DOWN TO 191,844(AND now A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET ON FRIDAY/APRIL 21/2017 AT 234,787) . OUR BANKERS WERE AGAIN UNSUCCESSFUL IN COVERING THEIR SILVER SHORTS. THE DATA ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE BANKERS COULD ONLY COVER A SMALL THEIR GOLD SHORTS . HOWEVER IT IS CLEAR THAT SILVER IS BECOMING IMPOSSIBLE FOR THE CROOKS TO COVER.
RESULT: A TINY SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE FALL IN PRICE OF 2 CENTS WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. OUR BANKER FRIENDS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO COVER ANY OF OUR SILVER SHORTS
2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report
2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore
and in NY: Bloomberg
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
)Late WEDNESDAY night/THURSDAY morning: Shanghai closed DOWN 11.62 points or .24% /Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 552.67 pts or 1.92% / The Nikkei closed UP 85.47 POINTS OR .40/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.08%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.6200/Oil UP to 51.40 dollars per barrel for WTI and 57.51 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED IN THE RED . ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.6200. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED STRONGER TO THE ONSHORE YUAN AT 6.6190 AND //ONSHORE YUAN STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR/OFF SHORE STRONGER TO THE DOLLLAR/. THE DOLLAR (INDEX) IS WEAKER AGAINST ALL MAJOR CURRENCIES. CHINA IS HAPPY TODAY
3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA
b) REPORT ON JAPAN
c) REPORT ON CHINA
4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
6 .GLOBAL ISSUES
7. OIL ISSUES
8. EMERGING MARKET
9. PHYSICAL MARKETS
10. USA Stories
Let us head over to the comex:
The total gold comex open interest FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 3,856 CONTRACTS DOWN to an OI level of 524,944WITH THE FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($3.75 DROP IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING). OUR BANKER FRIENDS HAD SOME SUCCESS IN THEIR ATTEMPT TO COVER THEIR HUGE GOLD SHORTFALL YESTERDAY .THEY WERE NOT HAPPY WITH THEIR ATTEMPT YESTERDAY SO THEY CONTINUED TO TORMENT LAST NIGHT AND EARLIER THIS MORNING ONLY TO END IN ANOTHER COMPLETE FAILURE. OCTOBER IS AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH ALTHOUGH IT IS THE WEAKEST IN TERMS OF ACTUAL DELIVERIES AND OPEN INTEREST. WE VISUALIZED THAT THROUGHOUT THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER, THE CROOKS UTILIZED THE EMERGENCY EFP SCHEME TO TRANSFER OBLIGATIONS OVER TO LONDON. IT THEN STANDS TO REASON THAT IF THE EMERGENCY WAS IN FORCE THROUGHOUT THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER IT WOULD CONTINUE ON FIRST DAY NOTICE WHEREBY ANOTHER 7200 LONG COMEX CONTRACTS WERE GIVEN 7200 EFP’S.
Result: a CONSIDERABLE SIZED open interest DECREASE WITH THE FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($3.75.) THE BANKERS CONTINUED WITH ANOTHER RAID YESTERDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUING ON THIS MORNING ONLY TO END IN FAILURE.
We have now entered the active contract month of Oct and here we saw a LOSS of 28 contracts DOWN TO 474 contracts. We had 82notices filed yesterday so we GAINED 54 contracts or an additional 5400 oz will stand for delivery at the comex in this active delivery month of October and 0 EFP notices were given. The low number of notices early in the delivery cycle is evidence of a lack of physical gold. We have just witnessed another queue jumping in the gold comex which is another indicator of physical shortage.
The November contract saw A LOSS OF 199 contracts DOWN to 938.
The very big active December contract month saw it’s OI loss OF 3770 contracts DOWN to 401,312
We had 3 notice(s) filed upon today for 300 oz
VOLUME FOR TODAY (PRELIMINARY) 320,951
CONFIRMED VOLUME YESTERDAY: 278,324
We had 3 notice(s) filed for 15,000 oz for the OCT. 2017 contract
|Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz||n/a|
|Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz||
|Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz||n/a oz|
|Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz||
|No of oz served (contracts) today||
|No of oz to be served (notices)||
|Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month||
|Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month||NIL oz|
|Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month||xxx oz|
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 3 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 1 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.
|Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory||n/a|
|Withdrawals from Customer Inventory||
|Deposits to the Dealer Inventory||
|Deposits to the Customer Inventory||
|No of oz served today (contracts)||
|No of oz to be served (notices)||
|Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)||779contracts
|Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month||NIL oz|
|Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month||xx oz|
NPV for Sprott and Central Fund of Canada
will update later tonight
Sprott WINS hostile 3.1 billion bid to take over Central Fund of Canada
Sprott Inc. to take control of rival gold holder Central Fund of Canada
Posted Oct 2, 2017 8:43 am PDT
Last Updated Oct 2, 2017 at 9:20 am PDT
TORONTO – Sprott Inc. (TSX:SII) says it has struck a deal to take control of rival gold-holding firm Central Fund of Canada Ltd. (TSX:CEF.A) after a protracted takeover effort.
Toronto-based Sprott said Monday it will pay $120 million in cash and stock for Central Fund of Canada Ltd.’s common shares and for the right to administer and manage the fund’s assets.
The deal, which requires approval from Central Fund shareholders, would see its class A shareholders transferred to a new Sprott Physical Gold and Silver Trust.
Sprott says the deal would add $4.3 billion to its assets under management, which are focused largely on holding physical precious metals on behalf of clients, and 90,000 investors to its client base.
In March, Sprott tried to go through the Court of Queen’s Bench of Alberta to allow Central Fund’s class A shareholders to swap their shares to Sprott after the family that controls Central Fund rebuffed their attempt to make a deal.
Last year Sprott took over Central GoldTrust, a similar fund controlled by the same family, after securing support from more than 96 per cent of shareholder votes cast.
And now the Gold inventory at the GLD
oCT 19/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 853.13 tonnes
Oct 18 /no change in gold inventory at the GLD/ inventory rests at 853.13 tonnes
Oct 17./no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 853.13 tonnes
Oct 16/A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.32 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 853.13 TONNES
0CT 13/ NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.45 TONNES
Oct 12/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.45 TONNES
Oct 10/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.45 TONNES
Oct 9/ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 4.43 TONNES INTO GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 858.45 TONNES
Oct 6/A DEPOSIT OF 2.96 TONNES OF GOLD INVENTORY INTO THE GLD/TONIGHT IT RESTS AT 854.02 TONNES
Oct 5/A LOSS OF 3.24 TONNES OF GOLD INVENTORY FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.06 TONNES
Oct 4/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.30 TONNES
oCT 3/ A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 10.35 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.30 TONNES
Oct 2/STRANGE/WITH GOLD’S CONTINUAL WHACKING WE GOT A BIG FAT ZERO OZ LEAVING THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.65 TONNES
SEPTEMBER 29/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventor rests at 864.65 tonnes
Sept 28/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.65 TONNES
Sept 27/WOW!! WITH GOLD DOWN $13.25, WE HAD A HUGE 8.57 TONNES OF GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD/
Sept 26/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 856.08 tonnes
Sept 25./Another big deposit of 3.84 tonnes into GLD/Inventory rests tonight at 856.08 tonnes
Sept 22/with gold up only 1 dollar on the day we had a massive 6.21 tonnes of gold added to the GLD/.this is a good sign that gold will advance nicely this coming week.
Sept 21/no change in gold inventory tonight/inventory rests at 846.03 tonnes
Sept 20/no change in gold inventory tonight/inventory rests at 846.03 tonnes
Sept 19/another deposit of 2.07 tonnes of gold into the GLD/inventory rests at 846.03 tonnes
Sept 18/a huge 5.32 tonnes of gold deposit into the GLD despite gold’s whack today/inventory rests at 843.96 tonnes
Sept 15./strange!!no change in GLD after the whacking of gold/inventory remains at 838.64 tonnes
Sept 14./no changes at the GLD/inventory rests at 838.64 tonnes
Sept 13/late last night a huge 4.14 tonnes of gold was added to the GLD inventory/inventory rests at 838.64 tonnes.
Sept 12/as of 5: 40 pm est, no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 834.50 tonnes
Sept 11/Today we had a rather large 2.37 tonnes of gold removed from the GLD/Inventory rests at 834.50 tonnes
Sept 8/we had a tiny withdrawal of .34 tonnes and probably that would be to pay for fees like insurance etc.
Inventory rests at 836.87 tonnes
Now the SLV Inventory
oCT 19/a huge change in silver inventory/a withdrawal of 944,000 oz despite the gain in silver price: inventory rests at 321.327 million oz
Oct 18 no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rest at 322.271 million oz
Oct 17/ A MONSTROUS WITHDRAWAL OF 3.494 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.271 MILLION OZ
Oct 16/ NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.765 MILLION OZ
oCT 13/ NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.765 MILLION OZ
Oct 12/THE LAST TWO DAYS WE LOST 1.113 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.765 MILLION OZ
Oct 10/NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.898 MILLION OZ/
Oct 9/A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.227 MILLION OZ INTO THE INVENTORY OF THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.898 MILLION OZ
Oct 6/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.671 MILLON OZ
Oct 5/ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 944,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.671 MILLION OZ
OCT 4/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.615 MILLION Z
Oct 3/A TINY WITHDRAWAL OF 143,000 FROM THE SLV FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.615 MILLION OZ
Oct 2/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326,757 MILLION OZ
SEPTEMBER 29/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 326.757 million oz/
Sept 28/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.757 MILLION OZ/
Sept 27/STRANGE!! SILVER IS HIT FOR 24 CENTS YESTERDAY AND. 9 CENTS TODAY AND YET NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.757 MILLION OZ
Sept 26./no change in silver inventory at the SLV/.inventory rests at 326.757 million oz
Sept 25./ a big deposit of 1.842 million oz into the SLV/inventory rests at 326.757 million oz/
Sept 22/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 324.915 million oz/
Sept 21/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 324.915 million oz
Sept 20/no changes in silver inventory/Inventory remains at 324.915 million oz
Sept 19/strange!! another withdrawal of 1.134 million oz despite the rise in silver/inventory rests at 324.915 million oz
Sept 18/a withdrawal of 1.039 million oz from the SLV/Inventory rests at 326.049 million oz
Sept 15./no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 327.088 million oz/
Sept 14/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 327.088 million oz/
Sept 13/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 327.088 million oz/
Sept 12.2017/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 327.088 million oz/
Sept 11.2017: no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 327.088 million oz/
Sept 8/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 327.088 million oz/
Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration+ 1.42%
Major gold/silver trading/commentaries for THURSDAY
Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results, important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST
2. Nikkei closed UP 85.47 POINTS OR .40% /USA: YEN FALLS TO 112.56
3. Europe stocks OPENED IN THE RED ( /USA dollar index FALLS TO 93.23/Euro UP to 1.1823
3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO -+.067/ GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 112.44/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD FINALLY IN THE POSITIVE/BANK OF JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR YIELD CURVE AS THEY PURCHASE ALL BONDS TO GET TO ZERO RATE!!
3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning
3e WTI:: 51.40and Brent: 57.51
3f Gold UP/Yen UP
3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.
3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN or Brent this morning
3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.386%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 2.037% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.623%
3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 5.543???
3k Gold at $1285.95silver at:17.05: 6 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50
3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 8/100 in roubles/dollar) 57.45
3m oil into the 51 dollar handle for WTI and 57 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation (already upon us). This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/China forced to do QE!! as it lowers its yuan value to the dollar/GOT A SMALL SIZED REVALUATION NORTHBOUND
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 112.56 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9761as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1543 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017
3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to +0.386%
The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.
4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.318% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.828% /
5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.
(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)
Global Markets Shaken By Sudden Equity Sell-Off: Hang Seng Crashes, VIX Surges
Has the market’s “melt-up” levitation finally ended? Of course, it could be much worse: as Bloomberg’s Paul Jarvis recalls, thirty years ago on this day traders around the globe were staring at their screens in disbelief as stock markets turned to a sea of red: the Dow, S&P 500, FTSE, DAX and CAC fell -23%, -20%, -10%, -9% and -10% respectively.
Fast forward to 2017 and the day known as Black Monday appears as little more than a blip in U.S. and European stock markets’ relentless progress. Having closed above the 23,000 mark for the first time on Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has led markets back from the abyss, rising more than 13-fold since falling 23% in a single trading session on Oct. 19, 1987.
Then again, “all” it took was central banks collectively buying a little over 30% of global GDP in debt over the past 3 decades, and especially in the past 8 years, to create the world’s most artificial “bull market” and “recovery” in history, and one day there will be hell to pay, but not just yet. Instead, on “Not Green Thursday”, traders wake up today to a modern day version of mini Black Monday, in which a sudden “risk-off” equity selloff has swept across global markets during early European trading, before gradually running out of steam, following a day in which the Dow Jones closed at one of its most overbought levels in the past 100 years.
US equity futures lead the move, with the VIX surging more than 1 vol to 11.550 (up 14%) the highest in five weeks, with Nasdaq futures heavily underperforming on reports of orders being cut for Apple iPhone 8. Losses compounded by poor earnings from major European names including SAP (-2.2%), Unilever (-4.8%) and Nestle (-0.6%); additionally, Hang Seng sold off into the close to end the day down 1.9%. As stocks sell off, USTs rally sharply in response, with the short end of the curve flattening again as the USD/JPY spikes lower, as do crude futures.
Here are the key overnight events that are having the biggest impact on this morning’s trading:
Apple: supplier orders for iPhone 8 and Plus are reduced by ~50% for Nov. and Dec. with shipments seen at 5-6m units per month: EDN
Catalonia: Spain to invoke Art. 155 and suspend Catalan autonomy after regional president refused to drop independence claims
ECB’s Nowotny: ECB cannot stop QE purchases abruptly; policy can be normalized before inflation reaches 1.9%, would be a mistake to wait too long on changing QE
China 3Q GDP 6.8% down from 6.9%; Retail Sales 10.3% vs 10.2% est; Industrial Output 6.6% vs 6.5% est; Fixed Assets 7.5% vs 7.7% est.
New Zealand: new coalition govt formed between Labour and First parties; National Party ousted
U.K. Sept. Retail Sales m/m: -0.8% vs -0.1% est.
As Nanex’ Eric Hunsader shows, today’s trading session is shaping up – at least for now – as the biggest post-midnight selloff in the S&P in 2017.
Meanwhile, as noted earlier, Spanish bonds marginally underperform due to auction concession and confirmation that govt will suspend Catalan autonomy. NZD weakest in G-10 after new coalition govt is formed, with the potential for RBNZ mandate to therefore be expanded beyond inflation. Gold and VIX rally given the risk-off sentiment
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index headed for the biggest drop in almost two months, with all industry sectors in the red, after Spain said it would move ahead with suspending Catalonia’s autonomy. Spanish shares lagged the benchmark and bond yields for peripheral Europe fluctuated. Underwhelming earnings from companies including Unilever and SAP SE further frayed investors’ nerves, already on edge amid concerns about the escalating Catalan stand-off, the lack of progress in Brexit negotiations and the search for a new Federal Reserve chief.
“European markets have started the day firmly on the back foot as a raft of company report earnings missed expectations, while investors await the next steps with respect to the constitutional crisis in Spain and today’s EU summit in Brussels,” said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets U.K. “We look set for a lower U.S. open today. All eyes are likely to be on today’s meeting with current Fed chief Janet Yellen and U.S. President Trump with some Republicans calling for her to be allowed to leave.”
Meanwhile in safe havens, bunds gained as European stocks slumped from the open. Spanish bonds softened as Spain moves ahead with suspending Catalonia’s autonomy, though bounced after solid auctions.
The late day selloff in stocks in Hong Kong stood out in a mixed Asian session, as the Hang Seng crashed as much as 600 points, or 2.4%, in the last minutes of trading, coming even as China reported its economy expanded 6.8 percent last quarter, as traders focused on comments about household debt and asset bubble risk by PBOC governor Zhou.
The dollar rebounded after losses earlier in the week while the pound weakened as data showed U.K. retail sales dropped more than forecast in September, making third-quarter growth in the sector the weakest in four years. The euro briefly dropped before recovering. Haven currencies led G-10 gains amid risk-off mood as weak earnings dragged stocks lower. Elsewhere, the kiwi dollar plummeted 1.3% after New Zealand’s Labour Party got the backing of the nationalist New Zealand First Party to form a government, as reported earlier. China’s currency retreated even after data from the central bank suggested that the country is now seeing capital inflows. Iron ore fell the most since September.
Treasuries pared weekly losses and the greenback snapped a three-day winning streak. The euro felt the heat from latest Catalonia headlines, yet was supported by demand for upside ECB exposure, while sterling dropped the most in two weeks as soft U.K. data coincided with start of EU summit.
In commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.3 percent to $51.34 a barrel, the lowest in a week. Gold increased 0.3 percent to $1,284.68 an ounce. Copper declined 0.8 percent to $3.15 a pound.
In rates, the yield on 10-year Treasuries decreased two basis points to 2.32 percent. Germany’s 10-year yield dipped less than one basis point to 0.39 percent. Britain’s 10-year yield decreased three basis points to 1.288 percent. Japan’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 0.067 percent.
Data include jobless claims and Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook. Philip Morris, Paypal, BNY Mellon, Danaher and Blackstone are among companies reporting earnings
S&P 500 futures down 0.4% to 2,550
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.6% to 389.27
MSCI Asia down 0.2% to 167.03
MSCI Asia ex Japan down 0.7% to 549.02
Nikkei up 0.4% to 21,448.52
Topix up 0.3% to 1,730.04
Hang Seng Index down 1.9% to 28,159.09
Shanghai Composite down 0.3% to 3,370.17
Sensex down 0.08% to 32,584.35
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.1% to 5,896.13
Kospi down 0.4% to 2,473.06
German 10Y yield fell 1.4 bps to 0.382%
Euro down 0.02% to $1.1785
Italian 10Y yield rose 4.1 bps to 1.773%
Spanish 10Y yield rose 3.7 bps to 1.656%
Brent futures down 1% to $57.56/bbl
Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,283.83
U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 93.49
Top Overnight News
Spain will move forward with the process of suspending the powers of the Catalan government after Regional President Carles Puigdemont refused to drop his claim to independence. “The government will continue with the procedures set out in Article 155 of the Constitution to restore the legality of self-rule in Catalonia,” the government said in a statement on Thursday morning
Robust factory output and consumer spending kept China’s economy humming in the third quarter, giving President Xi Jinping a firm footing to rein in excess capacity and shift to a more sustainable growth path
Yuan trading band expansion is a signal for opening up, but not a current focus, PBOC Governor Zhou Xiaochuan says at group discussion at the 19th Party Congress
Japan August all activity index rose 0.1% m/m, vs est. +0.2%
U.K. PM May wants negotiations to move on to the future relationship and hopes to discuss how to make quicker progress during the meal at a Brussels summit on Thursday, according to a senior U.K. government official
Euro briefly dipped and Spanish bonds fell on Madrid’s move to proceed with suspension of Catalan autonomy; Bloomberg dollar index steady
Soft earnings weighed on European stocks and S&P futures, supporting Treasuries and core European bonds
Cable dropped to one-week low after U.K. retail sales fell more than expected, while yen recovered from a two-week low on risk-off demand
Kiwi hit four-month low vs USD and the lowest in more than a year vs AUD as New Zealand First Party’s to back opposition Labour Party to form government; Aussie rose on jobs data beating estimates before paring gain after China’s 6.8% 3Q growth met estimates, while remarks by PBOC’s Zhou earlier had raised some expectations for a possible positive surprise
Asia equity markets traded mixed despite a mostly positive close on Wall Street. where all 3 majors posted fresh intraday records and the DJIA extended above 23K powered by IBM’s best performance in 8 years, as the region also digested a slew of tier 1 Chinese data including Q3 GDP which slightly slowed. ASX 200 (+0.1%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.7%) were positive in which the latter outperformed as it coat-tailed on USD/JPY’s brief reclaim of the 113.00 handle. Conversely, Hang Seng (-0.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.4%) were less enthusiastic as participants mulled over the latest Chinese data in which GDP met expectations but still slowed from prior and although Industrial Production and Retails Sales mildly topped estimates, Fixed Asset Investments grew at its slowest pace in nearly 18yrs. Finally, 10yr JGBs were flat for most the session with demand subdued amid the positive risk tone in Japan, although mild support was seen following a 5yr JGB auction in which the b/c rose from prior. Bank of Korea kept the 7-day Repo Rate unchanged at 1.25% as expected. BoK Governor Lee said that there was one board member who dissented at today’s rate decision, while the Governor added that monetary policy is to remain accommodative and that conditions are getting ripe to adjust monetary easing
Overnight key Chinese data came in generally in line to stronger than expected:
Chinese GDP (Q3) Q/Q 1.7% vs. Exp. 1.7% (Prev. 1.7%, Rev. 1.8%). (Newswires)
Chinese GDP (Q3) Y/Y 6.8% vs. Exp. 6.8% (Prev. 6.9%)
Chinese Industrial Production (Sep) Y/Y 6.6% vs. Exp. 6.5% (Prev. 6.0%)
Chinese Retail Sales (Sep) Y/Y 10.3% vs. Exp. 10.2% (Prev. 10.1%)
Chinese Fixed Assets Investment Ex-Rural YTD (Sep) Y/Y 7.5% vs. Exp. 7.7% (Prev. 7.8%); lowest since December 1999.
PBoC Governor Zhou stated the trading band is not too important and that expanding the band is not currently in focus, while PBoC’s Yi stated that China will continue to expand macroprudential measures for the property sector.
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How One Hedge Fund Ignored the China Bears and Made a 65% Gain
China’s Growth Momentum Gives Xi Platform to Deliver on Pledges
China’s Big Ball of Money May Be Headed Back to Stock Market
Billionaire Lau’s Chinese Estates Can’t Get Enough of Evergrande
In Europe, a broad risk off tone being seen in EU equities, alongside US equity futures this morning, with the move attributed to US equity futures tripping tech stops. Elsewhere, the IBEX is taking a hit amid the standoff between Spain and Catalan, as reports note that Spain’s Cabinet are to proceed with Article 155 on Saturday. Gilts and Short Sterling futures were already on the rebound prior to the dire UK data (and back month downgrades), but have extended gains, understandably – 10 year debt future just shy of 125.00 (some 1400 lots said to have been blocked at 124.97, buyer touted), and 3 month strip 0.5-4 ticks above parity. Some might contend that a leak prompted the pre-release recovery, but in truth all core bonds and STIRs were on the advance as cash bourses and US stock futures collapsed. The catalysts and rationale range from a tech-led rout, Catalonia on the brink of Article 155, a mere correction and for those prone to superstition an ominous repeat of 1987. All things considered, Spanish supply was taken down comfortably, and we suspect similar appetite for French OATs. Bunds have continued their recovery to 162.56, and thus surpassing the nearest upside technical target of 162.45, with Wednesday’s highs next in sight. US Treasuries also regaining composure after another squeeze in yields yesterday.
Top European News
U.K. Retail-Sales Growth Slumps to Weakest in Four Years
European Stocks Slide With Spain as Catalan Deadline Passes
Abertis Finds Atlantia Bid Attractive, Wants Better Price
IWG Falls Most Ever; Says Profit to ‘Materially’ Miss Estimates
In FX, : New Zealand’s First Party announced their decision to form a government with the Labour party, meaning that the Labour party will govern the nation for the first time in 9-yrs. In turn, NZD fell on the news, reflecting increased uncertainty, with the currency moving towards the October low of 0.7060, printing a low of 0.7040 after tripping stops through 0.7050. This slip in NZD led to AUD/NZD reaching its highest level in 18-months after breaking through the 1.10 and 1.11 handles. AUD/NZD looks to have met resistance at the 78.6% Fib retracement (1.1176) of the 2015 high to the 2016 low. AUD had also been supported by solid Australian jobs data with the employment change printing ahead of analyst estimates, while the unemployment rate took a surprise fall. Throughout the Asian session the JPY continued to weaken past 113 against the greenback as persistent record milestones on Wall Street saw USD/JPY benefit from carry trade flows. However, during the European morning, broad based declines in global equities amid US equity futures tripping tech stops led to a leap in the JPY with USD/JPY moving back to the mid-112. GBP dipped back to the mid 1.31 from just below of 1.32 amid annual retail sales growth slowing to weakest level since 2013 in Q3 after Septembers retail sales figure printed a surprise fall. Consequently, indicating that consumer demand remains uncertain ahead the BoE rate decision next month. Since the comments from the BoE’s new recruits (Ramsden and Tenreyro) as well as uninspiring data has seen market pricing of a hike next month dip from over 80% to 69%.
In commodities, similarly with the global risk off sentiment, WTI and Brent crude futures are hovering around their lows of the day, while the FTQ flow supported the precious metals complex with Gold and Silver prices edging higher. OPEC sec gen Barkindo says we are satisfied that Nigeria and Libya are making a recovery on their output, further saying Sceptics of oil deal were totally mistaken.
Looking at the day ahead, the most notable release in Europe will be UK retail sales data while in the US the most significant releases include the latest weekly initial jobless claims numbers, October Philly Fed business outlook and September leading index. Verizon results headline the corporate earnings releases due out.
US Event Calendar
8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 240,000, prior 243,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.89m, prior 1.89m
8:30am: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, est. 22, prior 23.8
9:30am: Fed’s George Speaks in Oklahoma
9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 49.5; Economic Expectations, prior 51.5
10am: Leading Index, est. 0.1%, prior 0.4%
DB’s Jim reid Concludes the overnight wrap
Today marks the 30th anniversary of Black Monday where the Dow, S&P 500, FTSE, DAX and CAC fell -23%, -20%, -10%, -9% and -10% respectively. The FTSE fell a further 12% the day after perhaps reflecting the difficulties in fully reopening the market after the great storm a few days before.
Overnight, China printed an in line 3Q GDP reading of 6.8% yoy, but both the September retail sales (10.3% yoy vs. 10.2% expected) and IP (6.6% yoy vs. 6.5% expected) slightly beat expectations. This morning in Asia, markets are trading a bit mixed. The Nikkei (+0.66%), ASX 200 (+0.15%) and Kospi (+0.06%) are slightly up, but the Hang Seng (-0.14%) and Chinese bourses (-c0.5%) are down as we type.
Now onto the US budget resolution bill, which is a crucial step before the Republicans formally work towards a tax reform package by the end the year. Currently, the GOP control 52 seats in the Chamber and with Mississippi’s
Cochran off due to sickness, there is a slimmer margin of error to pass this resolution which seeks to authorise a deficit increase of cUS$1.5trn over the next 10 years. That said, with the late backing of Senator Collins from Maine, the bill is expected to pass before the weekend and ahead of it going on to the next (tougher) phase, which includes drafting the tax bill and getting it through the committee and the full Senate.
Perhaps conveniently timed, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin has told the Politico that stock markets have tax reforms “baked into it, (with) reasonably high expectations” for a substantial corporate tax cut. Conversely, if tax reforms do not eventuate “there is no question in my mind that…you’re going to see a reversal of a significant amount of these gains”. Notably, US central bankers have a slightly different view, the Fed’s Dudley also spoke on taxes yesterday, but said “we are a long way from tax reforms at this point”, and he has not incorporated the impact of fiscal reform in his economic forecast. This echoed Ms Yellen’s comments on fiscal policy changes over the weekend where she said “it’s a source of uncertainty”, we have taken “a kind of wait and see attitude”. Elsewhere, Mnuchin has now conceded that it’s very hard not to give tax cuts to the wealthy with tax cuts also given to the middle class, in part as “the top 10% of the people pay 81% of the taxes”.
Moving onto bonds, after a relatively big rally after Friday’s soft US CPI print, yesterday saw 10 year USTs retrace all that rally with the closing level now back to 2.347%, broadly steady to last Wednesday’s close. We hit a post CPI low of 2.274% at Friday close. It seems the news that (the relatively hawkish) John Taylor interviewed well for the Fed Chair role from earlier in the week is still percolating through markets. There was also some mildly hawkish central bank speak and bullishness from the US administration over the tax reform bill.
Staying with bonds, core European 10y bonds yields rose c3bp yesterday (Bunds + 3.2bp; Gilts +4.1bp; OATs +3bp) while Spanish yields jumped 7.4bp ahead of today’s deadline (10am local time) for Catalan President Puigdemont to formally respond again on whether independence was declared or not. Note that the El Mundo also reported yesterday that Justice Minister Catala said the central government is ready to apply all legal instruments to restore order (at Catalonia).
Now turning to the mildly hawkish ECB central bankers commentaries where they confirmed the need for tapering. Firstly, ECB’s Lautenschlaeger said “I think it is time next year to gradually but completely roll back net purchases of bonds”. Then ECB’s Bank of France Governor Villeroy de Galhau also noted that “we have to achieve an adequate (QE) reduction because we have progressed towards our inflation target”, but did reiterate that ECB is following a path of “an adequate and very gradual (rate) normalisation”. Finally, ECB’s Hansson reminded that “the economy is in much better shape than some time ago” with people now more optimistic on the economy and that “I personally would like to see that we reduce the purchases, since we are on the right track”, but noted that “no decision has been made yet regarding timing and manner”. Elsewhere, Mr Draghi spoke on reforms, noting “with monetary policy being accommodative, we now have a window of opportunity to take these measures”.
Over in the US, the Fed’s Dudley was also a bit hawkish, noting “we went into 2017 showing a median of three rate hikes, and so far, we’re on path….for that to actually bear out”, which echoed the Fed’s Harker’s earlier comments where he thinks one more rate hike is appropriate this year, but warned his view was dependent on the inflation readings. Elsewhere, the Fed’s Kaplan also spoke at the panel, noting that“whatever we say about the neutral rate, I personally do not intend to raise the fed funds rate so that it’s nudging up against the 10-year Treasury rate”.
Moving onto equity market performance for yesterday. US equities continue to power ahead, with the Dow up 0.70% to a new all-time high (23,158 – the 6th time the index passed a 1,000 increment in last 12 months), helped by stronger sales forecasts fromIBM where its shares rose 8.86%. Elsewhere, the Nasdaq (+0.01%) and S&P (+0.07%) was also up marginally, with modest gains in the financials (+0.56%) and IT sectors largely offset by losses from energy (-0.70%) and telco names. The VIX fell slightly (-0.2pts) to 10.07.
European markets were broadly higher, with the Stoxx 600 up 0.29%, driven by gains in real estate and financials, while energy and material stocks were the only two sectors mildly in the red. Across the region, the DAX (+0.37%), FTSE (+0.36%), CAC (+0.42%) and Spain’s IBEX (+0.55%) all rose modestly.
Key currencies were little changed yesterday, with the US dollar index down 0.07%, while Euro and Sterling edged 0.18% and 0.11% higher respectively. In commodities, WTI oil was up 0.31% following API reports of lower US crude inventories last week. Elsewhere, precious metals dipped slightly (Gold -0.31%; Silver -0.22%) while other base metals were mixed but little changed (Copper -0.51%; Aluminium -1.51%; Zinc +0.89%).
Away from the markets and onto Brexit, EU President Tusk said “I don’t expect a breakthrough tomorrow (at the EU summit)”, although added that “it is still possible” that talks move onto trade in December. Earlier, UK PM May’s office released a letter to EU citizens living in UK, noting “as I travel to Brussels today… many people will be looking at us (the leaders of the 28 nations in EU) – to demonstrate we are putting people first”. We wait and see whether the gesture of goodwill will translate into some tangible breakthrough in today and tomorrow’s EU Summit talks.
Over in Germany, the Federal Constitutional Court has rejected bids to limit the Bundesbank’s cooperation with the ECB on the QE program. The plaintiffs had argued that ECB’s Public Sector Purchase Program (PSPP) might violate the prohibition of monetary financing in EU law that the ECB might have exceeded its monetary policy mandate. For now, the Court noted the plaintiffs must wait till the end of proceedings when judges could still ban the Bundesbank’s participation, although a final verdict into 2018 is likely to coincide with the expected run down of QE already. Elsewhere, PM Merkel has started talks with potential coalition partners in order to form a new government.
Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the September housing data was slightly weaker than consensus, with housing starts at 1.13m (vs. 1.18m expected) and building permits at 1.22m (vs. 1.245m expected). This was likely partly impacted by the recent Hurricane activity. Elsewhere, MBA applications rebounded to 3.6% this week (vs. -2.1% previous).
The Fed’s latest beige book reported that “economic activity increased in September through early October, with the pace of growth split between modest and moderate”, despite major disruptions from Hurricane Harvey and Irma in some areas. On prices, “pressures remained modest since the previous report”, despite labour markets that were “widely described as tight”. Notably, “the majority of Districts reported only modest to moderate wage pressures”.
In the UK, the August unemployment rate was in line and steady from July at 4.3% (42 year record low), while the average weekly earnings grew slightly higher than expected at 2.2% yoy (vs. 2.1%). Elsewhere, the September claimant count rate was in line at 2.3%, while the jobless claims change was higher than last month at 1.7k (vs. -0.2k previous).
Looking at the day ahead, the most notable release in Europe will be UK retail sales data while in the US the most significant releases include the latest weekly initial jobless claims numbers, October Philly Fed business outlook and September leading index. Verizon results headline the corporate earnings releases due out.
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)Late WEDNESDAY night/THURSDAY morning: Shanghai closed DOWN 11.62 points or .24% /Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 552.67 pts or 1.92% / The Nikkei closed UP 85.47 POINTS OR .40/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.08%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.6200/Oil UP to 51.40 dollars per barrel for WTI and 57.51 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED IN THE RED . ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.6200. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED STRONGER TO THE ONSHORE YUAN AT 6.6190 AND //ONSHORE YUAN STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR/OFF SHORE STRONGER TO THE DOLLLAR/. THE DOLLAR (INDEX) IS WEAKER AGAINST ALL MAJOR CURRENCIES. CHINA IS HAPPY TODAY.
3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA
b) REPORT ON JAPAN
3. CHINA REPORT
China’s yield curves inverts as growth wanes
Yield Curve Inverts, Yuan Slides As China GDP Growth Slows
Despite all the talk of deleveraging, China did anything but according to its most recent data but the lagged impact of the tumbling credit impulse is starting to show up in the broader macro data. Despite the National Congress being under way (and recent credit spikes and positive PBOC hints) GDP growth limped lower to the expected +6.8% YoY, and fixed asset investment growth was the weakest in over 17 years…
Ahead of tonight’s data dump, China macro data had been disappointing notably, having tumbled for over a month to its weakest since August 2016…
“A further acceleration in growth would surprise many investors who have taken their lead from measures to slow the property market, credit tightening moves and the government’s 6.5-percent or so growth objective for this year,” said Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy at AMP Capital Investors in Sydney.
But amid The National Congress, and demands for calm in all markets, expectations for tonight’s data were for the usual spot on ‘meet’ or even a ‘beat’ of well-managed expectations (following People’s Bank of China Governor Zhou Xiaochuan’s hints last weekend that expansion may accelerate in the second half to 7 percent).
China GDP YoY: MEET +6.8% vs +6.8% Exp (+6.9% prior) – missed the whisper number of +6.9% YoY
China Retail Sales YoY: BEAT +10.3% vs +10.2% Exp (+10.1% prior)
China Fixed Assets Investment YoY: MISS +7.5% vs +7.7% Exp (+7.8% prior) – lowest since Feb 2000
China Industrial Production YoY: BEAT +6.6% vs +6.5% Exp (+6.0% prior)
“Caution is needed in the Byzantine world of Chinese statistics,” said Pauline Loong, managing director at research firm Asia-Analytica in Hong Kong. The data “traditionally deliver exactly what its leaders want to hear –- and what its leaders want the public and the market to hear – ahead of any sensitive political event.”
Offshore Yuan had sold off heading into the data and extended losses after (remember Q3 was notable strength reverse into notable weakness after PBOC verbally intervened)
Still, China’s inverted yield curve suggests not everyone is so excited about the future…
Spain To Activate Article 155 Process, Suspending Catalonia Autonomy
Spain announced it will trigger the so-called “nuclear option” of Article 155 under the Spanish Constitution, and move ahead with the process of suspending Catalan autonomy and the powers of the local government, after Regional President Carles Puigdemont for the second time in four days refused to comply with a Spanish ultimatum to clearly drop his claim to independence.
Spain deployed the ultimate constitutional weapon after Puigdemont said the regional parliament may declare independence unless the government in Madrid agrees to talks. Puigdemont’s response came to an ultimatum from Madrid to renounce his claims to full autonomy by Thursday or face the consequences. “It’s not that difficult to reply to the question”, but there is still no definitive “yes” or “no”. Consequently, Madrid is poised to trigger Article 155 this Saturday, suspending the autonomy of the breakaway region.
As previewed last night, the “final” deadline passed and the Catalonian leader failed to satisfy Madrid’s demands.
Puigdemont had sent a new letter to Mariano Rajoy minutes before the second Article 155 deadline ran out at 10 a.m. on Thursday morning. That new letter did not provide the clarity the central government was seeking about the status of the independence of Catalonia, the Spanish Prime Minister’s office said.
“The suspension remains, it’s up to the Spanish Government to enforce article 155 with the authorisation of the Senate… If the central government persists in blocking dialogue and continues its repression, the Catalan Parliament may proceed, if it considers it appropriate, to approve a formal declaration of independence,” Puigdemont said in his letter to Rajoy.
Puigdemont also said that his request for a face-to-face meeting had been ignored, and that Spanish “repression” of Catalonia was being stepped up with the jailing of two separatist activists on Monday. “My request for the repression to end has not been met either,” Puigdemont said. “On the contrary, it has increased.”
In response, the Spanish government said in a Thursday morning statement that “the government will continue with the procedures set out in Article 155 of the Constitution to restore the legality of self-rule in Catalonia.”
The deadline had been imposed by the Spanish Government and yesterday Deputy Prime Minister, Soraya Saenz de Santamaria, warned that anything less than dropping the secession bid meant that it would begin the process of taking control of the Catalonian Administration. This morning, Madrid’s initial response has been to accuse Puigdemont of blackmail and confirm it will continue the process of triggering Article 155.
Next, the Spanish Cabinet will meet this Saturday to trigger Article 155: the Spanish Senate, under the control of Rajoy’s party, would initiate the transfer of power from Catalonia to Madrid “in order to protect the general interest of Spaniards, among them the citizens of Catalonia, and restore constitutional authority in that autonomous community [region]”.. It is expected to take 48 hours to appoint a replacement for Puigdemont and set a timeframe for regional elections in Catalonia. After that, it is expected to take several more days for the Government’s decisions to be implemented. So, we are probably looking at late next week before Madrid might take control of policing in Catalonia.
Besides the possibility of civil unrest in Catalonia, Rajoy is also likely to face pressure from groups which are sympathetic to the Catalans. From a BBC report “The Spanish parliament has seen sharp exchanges in recent days, with the head of one left-wing Catalan party accusing the government of choosing humiliation, repression and fear over dialogue. At one point, politicians from radical left-wing Spanish party Podemos held up placards urging the release of the Catalan independence activists, calling them ‘political prisoners’.” In addition, Rajoy has lobbied the Socialists to back him over Catalonia, but they are advising him to take adopt a gradual approach to intervention.
Article 155 is contained in Spain’s 1978 constitution, which was drawn up in the wake of Franco’s death. It has never been invoked, so Spain and financial markets are heading into uncharted territory.
The initial market reaction has been negative, with Europe’s Stoxx 600 extending losses to as much as 0.8%, while Spain’s IBEX 35 slid as much as 1%. Spain 5Y CDS was currently quoted 73.53 according to CMA data as of 9:56am London Wider than South Korea (70.38) and India (71.76) and just inside inside Peru (78.04) and Panama (78.30), according to Bloomberg. The Euro initially slumped on the news, dropping as low as 1.770 before recouping all losses.
Yesterday we brought you the story that it was the EU who would have far greater problems with a hard BREXIT than England. Raul Meijer explains the situation in detail and the reason why Ray Dalio went mega short on the EU and Italy
(courtesy Raul Meijer)
Ray Dalio Is Shorting The Entire EU
Authored by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog,
A point BOE Governor Mark Carney made recently may be the biggest cog in the European Union’s wheel (or is it second biggest? Read on). That is, derivatives clearing. It’s one of the few areas where Brussels stands to lose much more than London, but it’s a big one. And Carney puts a giant question mark behind the EU’s preparedness.
Carney Reveals Europe’s Potential Achilles Heel in Brexit Talks
Carney explained why Europe’s financial sector is more at risk than the UK from a “hard” or “no-deal” Brexit. [..] When asked does the European Council “get it” in terms of potential shocks to financial stability, Carney diplomatically commented that “a learning process is underway.” Having sounded alarm bells about clearing in his last Mansion House speech, he noted “These costs of fragmenting clearing, particularly clearing of interest rate swaps, would be born principally by the European real economy and they are considerable.”
Calling into question the continuity of tens of thousands of derivative contracts , he stated that it was “pretty clear they will no longer be valid”, that this “could only be solved by both sides” and has been “underappreciated” by Europe . Carney had a snipe at Europe for its lack of preparation “We are prepared as we should be for the possibility of a hard exit without any transition…there has been much less of that done in the European Union.”
In Carneys view “It’s in the interest of the EU 27 to have a transition agreement. Also, in my judgement given the scale of the issues as they affect the EU 27, that there will ultimately be a transition agreement. There is a very limited amount of time between now and the end of March 2019 to transition large, complex institutions and activities…
If one thinks about the implementation of Basel III, we are alone in the current members of the EU in having extensive experience of managing the transition for individual firms of various derivative and risk activities from one jurisdiction back into the UK. That tends to take 2-4 years. Depending on the agreement, we are talking about a substantial amount of activity.” [..] “I wouldn’t want to use financial stability issues as leverage. I wouldn’t want them to be addressed in a bloodless technocratic way in the interests of all the citizens.”
Sounds like Carney knows a thing or two that Juncker et al haven’t sufficiently thought through. The EU plans to move all – or most- derivatives clearing to the continent, but such a thing is anything but easy. That’s another very tangled web, and an expensive one to boot. Brussels probably wants to use the issue to put pressure on London in some way, but a hard Brexit might make that unlikely if not worse. Bloomberg from June this year:
EU Targets Derivative-Clearing Giants With Relocation Threat
“Today, a significant amount of financial instruments denominated in the currencies of the member states are cleared by recognized third-country CCPs,” according to the proposal. “For example, the notional amount outstanding at Chicago Mercantile Exchange in the U.S. is €1.8 trillion for euro-denominated interest-rate derivatives,” the commission said. “This also raises a series of concerns.”
The financial industry has lobbied hard against a location policy. The International Swaps and Derivatives Association said requiring euro-denominated interest-rate derivatives to be cleared by an EU-based clearinghouse would boost initial margin requirements by as much as 20% . The FIA, a trade organization for the futures, options and centrally cleared derivatives markets, has said forced relocation “could nearly double margin requirements from $83 billion to $160 billion.”
According to that Bloomberg piece, the notional amount outstanding of euro-denominated OTC interest-rate derivatives is some $90 trillion, 97% of which goes through the London Clearing House (LCH) based in .. well, you guessed it. Wikipedia:
LCH is a European-based independent clearing house that serves major international exchanges, as well as a range of OTC markets. Based on 2012 figures LCH cleared approximately 50% of the global interest rate swap market, and is the second largest clearer of bonds and repos in the world , providing services across 13 government debt markets.
In addition, LCH clears a broad range of asset classes including: commodities, securities, exchange traded derivatives, credit default swaps, energy contracts, freight derivatives, interest rate swaps, foreign exchange and Euro and Sterling denominated bonds and repos. LCH’s members comprise a large number of the major financial groups including almost all of the major investment banks, broker dealers and international commodity houses.
More details from Reuters, also in June:
Derivatives Body Warns EU Against Moving Euro Clearing From London
Shifting clearing of euro-denominated derivatives from London to the European continent would require banks to set aside far more cash to insure trades against defaults, a cost that would be passed on to companies, a global derivatives industry body says. [..]The London Stock Exchange’s subsidiary LCH currently clears the bulk of euro-denominated swaps, a derivative contract that helps companies guard against unexpected moves in interest rates or currencies.
Britain, however, is due to leave the bloc in 2019, putting it out of the EU’s regulatory reach. The International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA), one of the world’s top derivatives industry bodies, said on Monday that a “relocation” in euro clearing to continental Europe would split liquidity in markets and reduce the ability of banks to save on margin by offsetting positions in the same liquidity pool.
Deutsche Bank has the world’s largest derivatives portfolio. Not all of it will be euro-denominated, but still. And I know it’s just notional amounts, but derivatives are not things one plays fast and loose with, lest the clearing becomes opaque and trouble starts.
Juncker better solve this thing. Oh, and this one too (yes, it’s quite fun to report on this):
Money Will Divide Europe After Brexit
As part of the transition period of around two years that she called for in her emollient Florence speech last month, Britain would continue to pay in to the EU budget to ensure that none of the member states was out of pocket owing to the decision to leave. These net payments of around €10 billion a year would fix the immediate problem facing the EU, the hole that would otherwise open up in its finances during the final two years of its current budgetary framework, which runs from 2014 to 2020.
[..] through its accounting procedures, the EU can and does commit it to spending that will be paid for by future receipts from the member states. What this means is that even after 2020 there will still be payments due on commitments made under the current seven-year spending plan. That pile of unpaid bills, eloquently called the “reste à liquider” (the amount yet to be settled), is forecast to be €254 billion at the end of 2020.
Estimates of what Britain might owe towards this vary, but taking into account what might have been spent on British projects it could be around €20 billion. On top of that – and the second main reason why the EU is holding out for more – the EU has liabilities, notably arising from the unfunded retirement benefits of European staff estimated at €67 billion at the end of 2016, which it is expecting Britain to share. Even taking into account some potential offsets from its share of assets, Britain may face a bill of between €30 billion and €40 billion on top of the €20 billion paid during the transition period.
The EU finances itself on the fly. It’ll have a €254 pile of unpaid bills in 3 years time. That is scary. Not for Brussels, but for its member countries. A hard Brexit, in which Britain may refuse to pay, is perhaps even scarier.
Anyway, once Juncker’s done with all that, he’ll have to move on to the next problem.
Derivatives is a big cloud hanging over Europe, but this one is potentially shattering.
Ray Dalio, manager of the world’s biggest hedge fund, is shorting, placing large bets against, anything Italian, and given Italy’s size and hence importance to the EU, his bets are effectively bets against Brussels.
Dalio’s Fund Opens $300 Million Bet Against Italian Energy Firm
Bridgewater Associates is adding to its billion-dollar short against the Italian economy. The world’s largest hedge fund disclosed a $300 million bet against Eni SpA, Italy’s oil and gas giant, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Bloomberg previously reported that Ray Dalio’s firm had wagered more than $1.1 billion against shares of six Italian financial institutions and two other companies.
This latest bet is the hedge fund’s second-largest against an Italian company, trailing only the $310 million against Enel SpA, the country’s largest utility. Eni’s majority holder is the Italian government via state lender Cassa Depositi e Prestiti SpA and the Ministry of Economy. The public involvement also is reflected in the government’s role in appointing the chief executive officer. Current CEO Claudio Descalzi has been at the helm since 2014 and was reconfirmed this year.
$1.1 billion against the banking system, $310 million against the main utility, $140 million vs pan-European insurer Generali and now $300 million vs the national oil and gas company, That adds up to quite a bit more than the Bloomberg graph says, but I’ll include it anyway.
Dalio doesn’t call the bluff of Italy, and this is not just like George Soros’ shorting the British pound in 1992, he’s calling out the entire EU and its financial system.
He’s saying I don’t believe you can keep up the charade.
He’s making a mockery of Mario Draghi’s “whatever it takes”.
So what are Rome, Brussels and Frankfurt going to do? They can’t ignore the no. 1 hedge fund forever. They will have to pump money into Italy, in large amounts. Merkel won’t like that, neither will her new coalition partner FDP, and the Bundesbank may start legal action.
Dalio’s located the Union’s achilles heel, which is not just that Italy’s insolvent (it’s not alone in that), but that there’s a gigantic theater production being performed to give everyone the impression that things are going just swimmingly, thank you. So Dalio’s said: how much for a ticket to the show?, and paid it. And now he’s inside.
Bridgewater didn’t enter that theater for nothing. $1.85 billion is not chump change for them. Intesa Sanpaolo CEO Carlo Messina may have said that Dalio will lose his bets, but according to the IMF Italy’s non-performing loans levels were €356 billion at the end of June 2016, which is 18% of total loans for Italian banks, 20% of Italy’s GDP and one-third of total Eurozone NPLs. Intesa Sanpaolo holds a nice chunk of that.
‘Whatever it takes’ may well be too much to take for the EU, and Draghi looks outsmarted, as do Juncker and Merkel. How many billions will it take for Dalio to go away? And then, who’s next, which hedge fund, which politician, which ECB chief? Coming soon to a theater near you.
5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
6 .GLOBAL ISSUES
8. EMERGING MARKET
Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00 am
Euro/USA 1.1823 UP.0029/ REACTING TO SPAIN VS CATALONIA/REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:/TRUMP HEALTH CARE DEFEAT//ITALIAN REFERENDUM DEFEAT/AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/ /USA FALLING INTEREST RATES AGAIN/HOUSTON FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES RED
USA/JAPAN YEN 112.56 DOWN 0.445(Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/SIGNALS U TURN WITH INCREASED NEGATIVITY IN NIRP/JAPAN OUT OF WEAPONS TO FIGHT ECONOMIC DISASTER/
GBP/USA 1.3156 DOWN .0055 (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED
THERESA MAY FORMS A NEW GOVERNMENT/STARTS BREXIT TALKS/MAY IN TROUBLE WITH HER OWN PARTY/
USA/CAN 1.2453 UP .0012(CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA)
Early THIS THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 29 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1823; / Last night the Shanghai composite CLOSED DOWN 11.62 POINTS OR .34% / Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 552.67 PTS OR 1.92% /AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.08% / EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED RED
The NIKKEI: this THURSDAY morning CLOSED UP 85.47 POINTS OR .40%
Trading from Europe and Asia:
1. Europe stocks OPENED RED \
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / : Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 552.67 POINTS OR 1.92% / SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 11.62 POINTS OR .24% /Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.08% /Nikkei (Japan)CLOSED UP 26.93 POINTS OR .13% / INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 1285.90
Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.318% !!! DOWN 1 IN POINTS from TUESDAY night in basis points and it is trading JUST BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)
The 30 yr bond yield 2.828 UP 0 IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)
USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 93.23 DOWN20 CENT(S) from YESTERDAY’s close.
This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING
And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS \4 PM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.309% down 4 in basis point(s) yield from WEDNESDAY
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.067% down 7/10 in basis point yield from WEDNESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.637% UP 2 IN basis point yield from WEDNESDAY
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.029 down 2 POINTS in basis point yield from WEDNESDAY
the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 39 points HIGHER than Spain.
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: +.395% UP 0 IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY
Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/3:30 PM
Euro/USA 1.1845 UP 51 (Euro UP 51 Basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/
USA/Japan: 112.56 DOWN 0.444(Yen UP 44 basis points/
Great Britain/USA 1.3161 DOWN 0.0050( POUND DOWN 50 BASIS POINTS)
USA/Canada 1.2476 UP.0013 Canadian dollar DOWN 13 basis points AS OIL FELL TO $51.36
This afternoon, the Euro was UP 51 to trade at 1.1845
The Yen ROSE to 112.56for a GAIN of 44 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE
The POUND FELL BY 50 basis points, trading at 1.3161/
The Canadian dollar FELL by 13 basis points to 1.2476 WITH WTI OIL FALLING TO : $51.36
Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 2 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 2.320% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.83411 DOWN 2 in basis points on the day /
Your closing USA dollar index, 93.20 DOWN 16 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/5.00 PM/BREAKS RESISTANCE OF 92.00
Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 1:00 PM EST
London: CLOSED DOWN 19.63 POINTS OR 0.26%
German Dax :CLOSED DOWN 52.93 POINTS OR .41%
Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 15.22 POINTS OR 0.29%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 75.90POINTS OR 0.74%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 221.48 POINTS OR 0.99%
The Dow closed UP 5.44 POINTS OR .02%
NASDAQ WAS closed DOWN 19.15 PTS OR .29% 4.00 PM EST
WTI Oil price; 51.36 3:00 pm;
Brent Oil: 57.34 1:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE CROSS: 57.34 DOWN 11/100 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 11 BASIS PTS)
TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES TO +.395% FOR THE 10 YR BOND 5.00PM EST EST
This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today
Closing Price for Oil, 5 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:
WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 5:00 PM:$51.36
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.320% (ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 2.70% BLOWS UP THE GLOBE)
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.8341%
EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1845 UP .0051
USA/JAPANESE YEN:112.56 DOWN 0.440
USA DOLLAR INDEX: 93.20DOWN 16 cent(s)/
The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.3161 : DOWN 50 POINTS FROM LAST NIGHT
Canadian dollar: 1.2476 UP 13 BASIS pts
German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: +0.369%
And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver
TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY
This is a bombshell of a story. We now know that there was an FBI informant who was providing details to the FBI on Russian bribery all the way back to 2009. It seems that this informant ,code named Confidential source one, had intimate knowledge of the Uranium one details, and shockingly when he wished to come forward with the information to the USA authorities was threatened with his liberty and reputation by the FBI when he attempted to file a lawsuit on this issue. The USA Obama Justice Department threatened Confidential One with criminal proceedings. (They had earlier forced him to sign a non disclosure)
this is the most unbelievable story and will no doubt explain why the Democrats are continuing their BS story on Russian collusion with respect to the 2016 election. The problem is that the real story is that it was the Democrats who colluded with Russian individuals and not the Republicans in the election of which Trump was the victor despite Democrat attempts to nullify the Presidency of Trump.
FBI Informant “Threatened” After Offering Details Linking Clinton Foundation To Russian Bribery Case
While the mainstream media has largely ignored it, the scandal surrounding Russian efforts to acquire 20% of America’s uranium reserves, a deal which was ultimately approved by the Obama administration, and more specifically the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) which included Hillary Clinton and Eric Holder, is becoming more problematic for Democrats by the hour.
As The Hill pointed out earlier this morning, the latest development in this sordid tale revolves around a man that the FBI used as an informant back in 2009 and beyond to build a case against a Russian perpetrator who ultimately admitted to bribery, extortion and money laundering. The informant, who is so far only known as “Confidential Source 1,” says that when he attempted to come forward last year with information that linked the Clinton Foundation directly to the scandal he was promptly silenced by the FBI and the Obama administration.
In the midst of the new discoveries revealed yesterday about the Uranium One case (see: FBI Uncovered Russian Bribery Plot Before Obama Approved Uranium One Deal, Netting Clintons Millions), “Confidential Source 1” has once again hired an attorney, Victoria Toensing, a former Reagan Justice Department official and former chief counsel of the Senate Intelligence Committee, to get his story out.
Sitting down with The Hill earlier, Toensing said that the last time her client tried to speak out “both his reputation and liberty” were “threatened” by the Obama administration in a effort to force his silence.
“All of the information about this corruption has not come out,” she said in an interview Tuesday. “And so my client, the same part of my client that made him go into the FBI in the first place, says, ‘This is wrong. What should I do about it?’”
Toensing said she also possesses memos that recount how the Justice Department last year threatened her client when he attempted to file a lawsuit that could have drawn attention to the Russian corruption during the 2016 presidential race as well as helped him recover some of the money Russians stole from him through kickbacks during the FBI probe.
The undercover client witnessed “a lot of bribery going on around the U.S.” but was asked by the FBI to sign a nondisclosure agreement (NDA) that prevents him from revealing what he knows to Congress, Toensing explained.
When he tried to bring some of the allegations to light in the lawsuit last year, “the Obama Justice Department threatened him with loss of freedom. They said they would bring a criminal case against him for violating an NDA,” she added.
Emails obtained by The Hill show that a civil attorney working with the former undercover witness described the pressure the Justice Department exerted to keep the client from disclosing to a federal court what he knew last summer.
“The government was taking a very harsh position that threatened both your reputation and liberty,” the civil lawyer wrote in one email. In another, she added, “As you will recall the gov’t made serious threats sufficient to cause you to withdraw your civil complaint.”
As we pointed out last summer when Peter Schweizer first released his feature documentary Clinton Cash, the Uranium One deal at the center of this scandal is believed to have netted the Clintons and their Clinton Foundation millions of dollars in donations and ‘speaking fees’ from Uranium One shareholders and other Russian entities.
Russian Purchase of US Uranium Assets in Return for $145mm in Contributions to the Clinton Foundation –
Bill and Hillary Clinton assisted a Canadian financier, Frank Giustra, and his company, Uranium One, in the acquisition of uranium mining concessions in Kazakhstan and the United States. Subsequently, the Russian government sought to purchase Uranium One but required approval from the Obama administration given the strategic importance of the uranium assets. In the run-up to the approval of the deal by the State Department, nine shareholders of Uranium One just happened to make $145mm in donations to the Clinton Foundation. Moreover, the New Yorker confirmed that Bill Clinton received $500,000 in speaking fees from a Russian investment bank, with ties to the Kremlin, around the same time. Needless to say, the State Department approved the deal giving Russia ownership of 20% of U.S. uranium assets
Meanwhile, the ‘journalists’ over at CNN are still trying to get to the bottom of exactly who spent the $100,000 on Facebook ads…
As stated above, the Russian Uranium deal is the biggest story that the fake media will not want to cover but will be forced to do so. The FBI has been following Russian corruption since 2009 and even arrested and jailed one individual named Milkeran. Instead of publically declaring the above both the Justice Dept and the FBI were silent on the matter trying to cover it up. They were afraid it would expose both Obama and Clinton. Interestingly enough the investigation into the matter was started by none other than Robert Mueller in 2009, the guy investigating Trump (Russian conspiracy in the 2016 election) and ended with..you guessed it James Comey…
what an unbelievable story!! and this should bring down Obama, Clinton, Mueller and Comey!!!!!
This commentary also highlights how the Republicans will try to pass the budget which will allow reconciliation and make it easier to pass the tax bill
a must read…
Trump: Russian Uranium Deal “Is The Biggest Story That Fake Media Doesn’t Want To Follow”
As we reported yesterday, as the media continues to lose their collective minds over $100,000 worth of Facebook ads allegedly purchased by Russians during the 2016 election, the Senate Judiciary Committee has finally decided they’re going to take a look into a shady Russian deal – first profiled here last summer – that handed Putin 20% of America’s uranium reserves, was approved by the Obama administration during an ongoing FBI investigation into charges of bribery, extortion and money laundering by the Russian buyer and netted the Clintons millions of dollars in donations and ‘speaking fees.”
Recall that on Wednesday it was reported that the Senate Judiciary Committee launched a full-scale probe into a Russian nuclear bribery case, demanding several federal agencies disclose whether they knew the FBI had uncovered the corruption before the Obama administration in 2010 approved a controversial uranium deal with Moscow. Sen. Chuck Grassley, the committee chairman, gets his first chance to raise the issue in public on Wednesday when he questions Attorney General Jeff Sessions during an oversight hearing.
“It has recently come to the Committee’s attention that employees of Rosatom were involved in a criminal enterprise involving a conspiracy to commit extortion and money laundering during the time of the CFIUS transaction,” Grassley wrote in one such letter addressed to Sessions.
“The fact that Rosatom subsidiaries in the United States were under criminal investigation as a result of a U.S. intelligence operation apparently around the time CFIUS approved the Uranium One/Rosatom transaction raises questions about whether that information factored into CFIUS’ decision to approve the transaction,” the chairman added.
Fast forward to this week when thanks to newly released affidavits from a case that landed one of the Russian co-conspirators, Vadim Mikerin, in jail, we learned on Tuesday that not only was the Obama administration aware the Russians’ illegal acts in the U.S. but it may have also been fully aware that “Russian nuclear officials had routed millions of dollars to the U.S. designed to benefit former President Bill Clinton’s charitable foundation during the time Secretary of State Hillary Clinton served on a government body that provided a favorable decision to Moscow.”
It gets better: in an unexpected twist, the FBI’s investigation into this particular Russian plot began in 2009 under none other than Robert Mueller, now the special counsel in charge of the Trump case… and ended in late 2015 under the controversial, former FBI Director James Comey who was relieved of his duties by President Trump. “Surprisingly” when the DOJ finally arrested Mikerin in 2014, following 5 years of investigations in a massive international bribery and money-laundering scheme, rather than publicly celebrate, they seemingly swept it under the rug. In fact, there was no public release concerning the case at all until a full year later when the DOJ announced a plea deal with Mikerin right before labor day.
* * *
Putting all that together, it is not difficult to see why the story has gotten precisely zero mainstream media coverage in the past 48 hours, or past year for that matter.
But not the president… Upon waking up on Thursday, Trump immediately went on twitter to slam the “Fake media” for not following the Russian uranium deal, and once again accused both Obama and the Clintons:
“Uranium deal to Russia, with Clinton help and Obama Administration knowledge, is the biggest story that Fake Media doesn’t want to follow!”
We expect that now that Trump plans on making a daily twitter spectacle of this particular Russian involvement, the DOJ and FBI may have no choice but to reopen the investigation, with potentially adverse consequences for Mueller, Comey, including perhaps Clinton and Obama.
In a separate tweet on Thursday, Trump said he thought there is enough to support in the Senate to pass its 2018 budget resolution, a key step toward tax reform, but added, “who knows?”
“Republicans are going for the big Budget approval today, first step toward massive tax cuts. I think we have the votes, but who knows?” he tweeted.
Later on Thursday, the Senate is scheduled to vote on the budget resolution bill, which is a crucial step before the Republicans formally work towards a tax reform package by the end the year. Currently, the GOP control 52 seats in the Chamber and with Mississippi’s Cochran off due to sickness, there is a slimmer margin of error to pass this resolution which seeks to authorise a deficit increase of cUS$1.5trn over the next 10 years. That said, with the late backing of Senator Collins from Maine, the bill is expected to pass before the weekend and ahead of it going on to the next (tougher) phase, which includes drafting the tax bill and getting it through the committee and the full Senate.
If Republicans pass the budget resolution, they can utilize a legislative tool called reconciliation that would allow them to move tax legislation through the Senate on a simple majority vote. Otherwise, tax reform would need 60 votes, which would make the GOP proposal’s passage much less likely as it would need to pull support from all Republican lawmakers as well as some Democrats.
Papers Filed To Disbar James Comey Following “False Testimony To Congress“
Ty Clevenger, the “crusading lawyer” who has been trying for months to get Hillary and several members of her campaign staff disbarred in every jurisdiction from Little Rock, Arkansas to New York, has now set his sights on a new target: Former FBI Director James Comey. According to the Washington Times, Clevenger filed a bar grievance in New York this week accusing Comey of lying to Congress and destroying potential evidence in the Clinton email scandal, in a process that could end up costing him his law license.
Ty Clevenger filed the grievance in New York, where Mr. Comey was a former U.S. attorney and is licensed to practice law.
Mr. Clevenger said Mr. Comey’s testimony to Congress that he did not predetermine the outcome of the FBI’s probe into former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is belied by revelations this week that he in fact started drafting an exoneration months before even speaking with Mrs. Clinton.
“Insofar as Mr. Comey gave materially false testimony to Congress, it appears that he violated Rules 1.0(w), 3.3(a)(1), and 8.4 of the New York Rules of Professional Conduct,” Mr. Clevenger wrote.
Clevenger also asked to renew grievances in New York against former Attorney General Loretta Lynch, saying that Comey’s claim that she tried to pressure him to downplay the Clinton probe should subject her to scrutiny.
As you may recall, Clevenger is also the lawyer who convinced Maryland judge Paul Harris Jr. to order the Maryland state bar to investigate former Hillary aides David Kendall, Cheryl Mills and Heather Samuelson for their efforts in allegedly helping Hillary “destroy evidence.”
A Maryland judge ordered the state bar to open an investigation Monday into the three lawyers who helped former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to delete her private emails.
Circuit Judge Paul F. Harris Jr. said the complaints lodged against David E. Kendall, Cheryl Mills and Heather Samuelson were “egregious” and said the state bar couldn’t brush them aside by calling them “frivolous.”
“There are allegations of destroying evidence,” Judge Harris said at a hearing Monday morning, where he said the state’s rules require the bar to conduct investigations no matter who raises the complaint, and can’t brush accusations aside.
“I just think this is a rather easy decision at this point,” he said. “The court is ordering bar counsel to investigate.”
So what say you? Is this all a waste of time or are the Clintons the only ones who can perpetually avoid punishment for their scandals?
Another important commentary as zero hedge explains why we may still get another Government shutdown on Dec 8
Here Are The Reasons Why Another Government Shutdown Looms
It seems that it was just yesterday when the market was celebrating Trump’s avoidance of a government shutdown due to an “unprecedented” bipartisan deal with Democrats, which left Republicans out in the cold. Well, things are once again back to normal.
With fewer than 30 sessions left in the year and a heap of legislative priorities pressing on lawmakers’ agendas, it will be “extraordinary” if Republicans manage to pass tax reform this year, something Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin somewhat surprisingly admitted in an interview published yesterday. However, given President Donald Trump’s penchant for burning bridges with lawmakers – perhaps best exemplified by his decision to make a deal with “Chuck and Nancy” only to go back on said deal by pushing a package of unrealistic demands, including funding for his border wall and more resources for immigration enforcement – Republicans’ ability to keep the government open past Dec. 8 is looking increasingly tenuous.
As Bloomberg points out, given the rancor within the Republican ranks, and a lack of trust among Democrats – fostered by the president’s penchant for burning bridges – not only will the Trump White House be forced to punt on all of its major legislative priorities, but it may not be able to avert what would be the first federal government shutdown since 2013, as squabbling lawmakers struggle to find common ground on immigration reform, disaster-relief spending, taxes, Obamacare (subsidies) and preserving funding for Planned Parenthood.
And now, after a year of trying – and failing – to legislate, the Republicans’ unfinished business is coming back to haunt them in the fourth quarter.
The year’s most divisive fights in Congress are set to converge in a bitter partisan clash in December that could result in a US government shutdown. The unresolved battles – over a wall on the U.S.-Mexico border, immigration, health-care subsidies, Planned Parenthood and storm relief – are hanging over talks on must-pass spending legislation to keep the government open after Dec. 8. The spending measure is at risk of becoming so weighted with controversial items that it collapses. “The laundry list of things they want to put on it grows every day,” said Jim Dyer, a former House Appropriations Committee Republican staff director.
Even if Republicans could focus their energies on overcome their internal divisions and passing the budget, which is set for a vote today in the Senate after easily sailing through the more Trump-friendly House earlier this month, certain “unbridgeable policy differences” could make passing a budget difficult. With Republican Sen Thad Cochran away this week due to illness, it’s anybody’s guess whether the budget resolution being brought to a vote in the Senate today will pass. Even Trump has no idea.
Of course, since lawmakers are probably wary of the political backlash a shutdown might cause, the pressure to punt on the deal and agree to extend the current spending program for another year might be too difficult to resist, especially if no deal on tax reform is forthcoming.
With Cochran off due to sickness, there is a slimmer margin of error to pass the controversial budget, which seeks a $1.5 trillion expansion of the budget deficit over the next 10 years. That said, with the late backing of Senator Collins from Maine, Lisa Murkowski from Alaska along with Sen. McCain, there’s a chance the bill could pass before the weekend. But then the next even more logistically fraught phase begins: passing tax reform, which is supposed to be hammered out during the reconciliation process for the budget bill.
Being forced to punt could leave the Trump White House with no major legislative accomplishments this year.
Even without contentious issues, completing a trillion-dollar spending bill in time would be a tall order. The brewing battle could leave Republicans with no major accomplishments in President Donald Trump’s first year after they couldn’t find enough votes to repeal Obamacare. The more protracted the fight, the less time in 2017 to overhaul the tax code, the GOP’s top priority.
Unbridgeable policy differences might result in a push to simply extend current spending authority through fiscal 2018. That would limit military spending to $549 billion, leaving out the big boost sought by Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman John McCain of Arizona and other Republican defense hawks.
And of course, there will always be certain intransigent lawmakers vowing to force a shutdown if they don’t get what they want.
McCain is among those threatening to take his year-end priorities to the mat. He said Wednesday that he won’t support any temporary extension of government agency spending unless the defense caps are lifted. He said a government shutdown – for the first time since 2013 – is possible.
“There’s always a risk every time we go through this cycle,” he said. Democrats say a shutdown can be averted if Trump and congressional Republicans, including the conservative House Freedom Caucus, put aside unrealistic demands such as a ban on funds for Planned Parenthood or requiring any added hurricane-relief funds to be offset with domestic spending cuts.
“We don’t want a shutdown,” said Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer of New York. “Ask President Trump. Ask our hard-right Freedom Caucus types.”
Still, with Democrats scrambling to preserve Obamacare after Trump cut subsidies, the renewed battle over health care could sink the White House’s other priorities, like spending. And Trump’s decision to encourage – and then denounce – a bipartisan plan to enshrine the subsidies in law has only heightened the rancor and mistrust harbored by both Republicans and Democarts.
Trump, who earlier encouraged Alexander to cut a deal, signaled opposition to the measure. His spokeswoman, Sarah Sanders, said, “We need something that goes a little further to get on board.”
Steve Bell, a former Senate Budget Committee GOP staff director, said Trump’s shifting positions could poison the well for bipartisan deals. “All of that makes a Dec. 8 shutdown very possible,” he said.
Even passing disaster relief spending – something President Donald Trump repeatedly promised to deliver – looks set to devolve into a political dogfight.
Another sticking point is disaster relief. Texas, Florida and Puerto Rico could seek tens of billions of dollars in additional rebuilding money once final damage assessments are tallied. Conservatives are likely to seek spending cuts in exchange for such funds, which Democrats and many other Republicans reject.
A dispute over extending the Children’s Health Insurance Program, which expired in September, could also carry over into the spending bill. So too could a perennial push by Republican House conservatives to ban funding for Planned Parenthood, which provides abortions and family planning services. On defense, Republicans are seeking to increase spending caps by $54 billion, while Democrats insist that must be coupled with the same increase for non-defense spending.
Republicans would like to avoid a shutdown after the 2013 incident hammered their polling ratings. But Trump’s mercurial approach to lawmaking has made legislators in both parties nervous.
The real question is: How will markets react once tax reform is off the table and the federal government has ground to a halt? Will the long awaited volatility spike arrive? And will investors then rush to take the opportunity and “buy the fucking government shutdown dip?”
“It’s A Mad Max Situation” – Puerto Rico Doctors Practice…
Nearly four weeks after Hurricane Maria devastated the island of Puerto Rico, doctors are experiencing…
This is how bad it is in Puerto Rico today, 4 weeks since Hurricane Maria destroyed much of the infrastructure inside the island
(courtesy Mac Slavo/SHFTPlan.com)
“It’s A Mad Max Situation” – Puerto Rico Doctors Practice Medicine In ‘Post-Apocalyptic’ Conditions
Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,
Nearly four weeks after Hurricane Maria devastated the island of Puerto Rico, doctors are experiencing “post-apocalyptic” conditions. The reality doctors in Puerto Rico are facing is similar to that from a dystopian novel.
Doctors are conducting surgical procedures in sweltering 95-degree heat, experience malfunctioning X-ray machines, and have seen medications literally melting. “We’re practicing disaster medicine in real life,” said Dr. William Kotler, a senior resident in emergency medicine at Florida Hospital in Orlando, who spent two weeks volunteering on the island earlier this month. “We improvise if we have to, with very little resources.”
Arriving one week after Hurricane Maria made landfall, Dr. Kotler and four other emergency physicians from Florida Hospital in Orlando, finished up a volunteer mission on the devastated island. They were the first medical relief team the hospital sent to the island.
“We went in blind,” said Dr. Julian Trivino, who was among the first team of volunteers.
A second team arrived on October 8th and will stay for two weeks to assist those who need medical attention. When the physicians arrived in the town of Aguadilla on the northwestern tip of the island, the local hospital was in bad shape. The hurricane had almost completely taken down the entire electrical grid and knocked out communications.
“I got there and immediately had a patient with serious head injuries from a car accident,” said Trivino, who is the chief resident in emergency medicine.
Access to electricity was so poor that Trivino couldn’t conduct a CT scan, but he was able to do an X-ray. To review the films, he had to go outside and hold the films up to the sunlight to see anything. Afterward, he used one of the team’s two satellite phones to arrange for the patient to go to a trauma center.
Dr. Trivino must use sunlight to examine x-rays since electricity is sporadic in Puerto Rico.
The physicians are also becoming increasingly concerned that Puerto Rico could be headed toward a full-blown health crisis.
“Trauma centers are overwhelmed. Basic surgeries are being postponed. I’ve seen people lose digits because they couldn’t be treated in time,” said Kotler.
And the heat is making conditions even more extreme. At a hospital in Carolina on the northeastern coast, Kotler and Trivino had to perform an emergency surgery; attaching a temporary pacemaker to a patient whose heart rate was abnormally slow.
“It was 95 degrees in this ER room. She was sweating profusely and vomiting,” said Kotler.
“I held her hand and stroked her head. It’s what I could do to comfort her.”
But there were also several patients who suffered the ultimate fate. In Aguadilla, it was a 42-year-old man in cardiac arrest.
“He had a fever of 107 degrees. It was burning hot in the hospital. We scrambled to find ice packs to cool him down,” said Kotler. Nonetheless, he died the next day.
“If you have a major heart attack in Puerto Rico, right now, the odds are stacked against you,” said Trivino.
It isn’t just the sweltering heat that’s causing a post-apocalyptic medical crisis either. A lack of clean drinking water is compounding the problems. In one town, the medical team encountered an orphanage where children were on the verge of dehydration. The physicians flew in pallets of fresh drinking water to save the kids’ lives. Because of the lack of water, Dr. Raul Hernandez, an internist based in San Juan, is bracing for an outbreak and possibly several deaths from waterborne diseases. He said Leptospirosis, a bacterial disease spread through the urine of infected animals such as rodents, is becoming a growing concern. Due to a lack of safe drinking water, people are drinking from whatever water sources they can find just to survive, he said. If that water contains urine from an infected rat, the disease will spread, he said. So far, at least two deaths have been attributed to Leptospirosis in Puerto Rico.
Dr. Miguel Acevedo led the second team of emergency physicians from Florida Hospital. “They say it could take six to nine months for power to be restored fully in Puerto Rico. No hospital can plan to survive on generators for that long,” he said.
What doctors are dealing with in Puerto Rico is a “Mad Max kind of situation,” said Acevedo.
“The reality here is post-apocalyptic,” he said. “You can’t understand the seriousness of it unless you see it.”
Well that about does it for tonight
I will see you FRIDAY night