Dec 8/Gold down $4.75 but silver holds as it rises by 3 cents/huge 18,800 Gold EFP’s issued to longs as they transfer their long positions over for a London forward/Almost 3,000 comex long silver contracts transfer for a silver long London forward/Bitcoin drops 1600 dollars to 1500. per coin/USA payrolls rise 228,000 but we get no advance in hourly wages which is what the Fed wants/

GOLD: $1246.50 DOWN $4.75

Silver: $15.80 UP 3 cents

Closing access prices:

Gold $1248.50

silver: $15.86

SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1257.06 DOLLARS PER OZ

NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: $1249.05

PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $8.01

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SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1257.09

NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1248.00

Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$9.19

SHANGHAI REJECTS NY /LONDON PRICING OF GOLD

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LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1245.85

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1245.80

LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1250.65

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. 1250.50

For comex gold:

DECEMBER/

 NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR DECBER CONTRACT:  62 NOTICE(S) FOR 6200 OZ.

TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 6095 FOR 609500 OZ (18.86 TONNES),

For silver:

DECEMBER

54 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

270,000 OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 5285 for 26,425,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: BID $14,934/OFFER $15,041, DOWN $1697 (morning) 

BITCOIN : BID $15,083 OFFER: $15908 // down $1640 (CLOSING)

end

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total open interest FELL BY A LESS THAN EXPECTED 1535 contracts from 194,631 FALLING TO 193,096 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S GOOD SIZED  19 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING  AND NOW WELL BELOW THE HUGE $17.25 SILVER RESISTANCE.   WE HAD SURPRISINGLY NO REAL  COMEX LIQUIDATION AS WE WERE AGAIN NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD ANOTHER GIGANTIC NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE :  2951 EFP’S FOR MARCH (AND ZERO FOR DEC AND OTHER MONTHS) AND THUS TOTAL ISSUANCE OF 2951 CONTRACTS.   I GUESS WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. YESTERDAY WITNESSED 3903 EFP’S FOR SILVER ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/ STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF DECEMBER:

22,308 CONTRACTS (FOR 6 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 22,308 CONTRACTS OR 111.54 MILLION OZ: AVERAGE PER DAY: 3,718 CONTRACTS OR 18.59 MILLION OZ/DAY)

RESULT: A SMALLER SIZED FALL IN OI COMEX DESPITE THE 19 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICE.  HOWEVER  WE HAD ALL OF OUR COMEX LONGS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:  FROM THE CME DATA 2951 EFP’S  WERE ISSUED TODAY  FOR A DELIVERABLE CONTRACT OVER IN LONDON WITH A FIAT BONUS. IN ESSENCE THE  DEMAND FOR SILVER PHYSICAL INTENSIFIES GREATLY. WE REALLY GAINED 1416 OI CONTRACTS i.e. 2951 open interest contracts headed for London (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A DECREASE OF 1535 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS INCREASED DEMAND  HAPPENED WITH THE FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER BY ANOTHER 19 CENTS WITH A LOW CLOSING PRICE OF $15.77 YESTERDAY. YET WE STILL HAVE A MASSIVE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX.

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by just UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.966 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 138% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT DECEMBER MONTH/ THEY FILED: 54 NOTICE(S) FOR 270,000 OZ OF SILVER

In gold, the open interest FELL BY A LESS THAN EXPECTED  5259 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 458,857  DESPITE THE GOOD SIZED FALL  IN PRICE OF GOLD  YESTERDAY ($12.70).  HOWEVER,  THE TOTAL NUMBER OF GOLD EFP’S ISSUED THURSDAY FOR FRIDAY  TOTALED ANOTHER GIGANTIC 18,804 CONTRACTS OF WHICH THE MONTH OF DECEMBER SAW 0 CONTRACTS AND FEB SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 18,804 CONTRACTS. The new OI for the gold complex rests at 459,616. DEMAND FOR GOLD INTENSIFIES GREATLY AS WE WITNESS THE HUGE NUMBER OF EFP TRANSFERS TOGETHER WITH THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD OUNCES STANDING FOR DECEMBER. EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK  TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD.  THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX  HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER AND ON TOP OF THAT IT IS TAKING A FURTHER 13 WEEKS TO OBTAIN PHYSICAL FROM THE POINT WHEN FORWARDS BECOME DUE. IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A NET GAIN OF 13,545 OI CONTRACTS: 4500 OI CONTRACTS LEFT THE  COMEX  BUT  18,804 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THE CME HAS BEEN VERY TARDY IN THEIR REPORTING OF EFP ISSUANCE.  THEY ARE IMMEDIATELY REMOVING COMEX OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS BUT DELAYING RELEASE OF EFP’S FOR 24 HOURS OR GREATER AS NO DOUBT THEY ARE NEGOTIATING WITH THE LONGS FOR A FIAT BONUS.

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 11,871 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S/ GOLD(EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER STARTING WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE94,427 CONTRACTS OR 9.4427 MILLION OZ OR 293.6 TONNES (6 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING:15,737 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY OR 1.574 MILLION OZ)

Result: A SMALLER SIZED DECREASE IN OI DESPITE THE GOOD SIZED FALL IN PRICE IN GOLD YESTERDAY ($12.70). WE  HAD A LARGE  NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 18,804. THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX AND YET WE REACHED THE HUGE DELIVERY MONTH OF DECEMBER. I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES.  IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 18,804 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A NET GAIN OPEN INTEREST OF 13,545  contracts:

18,804 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 5259 CONTRACTS LEFT THE  COMEX. THE NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES IN OZ: 1,430,000 OZ AND IN TONNES: 44.04 TONNES

we had:  62  notice(s) filed upon for 6200 oz of gold.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD:

Today, NO CHANGES in gold inventory at the GLD/

Inventory rests tonight: 842.81 tonnes.

SLV

oh oh!!!TODAY WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A ‘DEPOSIT” OF 2.642 MILLION OZ

INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.355 MILLION OZ

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in silver FELL BY A LESS THAN EXPECTED 1535 contracts from 194,631 DOWN  TO 193,096 (AND now A LITTLE FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET ON FRIDAY/APRIL 21/2017 AT 234,787) DESPITE THE HEAVY LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICE AND CONTINUAL BOMBARDMENT (A FALL OF 19 CENTS ). HOWEVER,OUR BANKERS  USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE ANOTHER HUGE  2951  PRIVATE EFP’S FOR MARCH (WE DO NOT GET A LOOK AT THESE CONTRACTS AS IT IS PRIVATE BUT THE CFTC DOES AUDIT THEM).  EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  WE HAD SOME COMEX SILVER COMEX LIQUIDATION. HOWEVER IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX (1535 CONTRACTS)   TO THE 2951 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S  WE OBTAIN A NET GAIN OF  1416  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS, ON TOP OF THE HUGE AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES THAT ARE STANDING FOR METAL IN DECEMBER (SEE BELOW). THE NET GAIN TODAY IN OZ: 70.80 MILLION OZ!!! 

RESULT: A SMALLER SIZED THAN EXPECTED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE HEAVY 19- CENT FALL IN PRICE (WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING).  BUT WE ALSO  HAD ANOTHER 2951 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING  COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON . TOGETHER WITH THE HUGE AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR DECEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER INTENSIFIES DESPITE THE CONSTANT RAIDS.

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late THURSDAY night/FRIDAY morning: Shanghai closed UP 17.93 points or .53% /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 336.66 pts or 1.19% / The Nikkei closed UP 313.05 POINTS OR 1.39%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.53%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.6213/Oil UP to 57.64 dollars per barrel for WTI and 63.16 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN. ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.6213. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST  THE ONSHORE YUAN AT 6.6271 //ONSHORE YUAN WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR/OFF SHORE WEAKER TO THE DOLLAR/. THE DOLLAR (INDEX) IS  STRONGER AGAINST ALL MAJOR CURRENCIES. CHINA IS NOT HAPPY TODAY.

3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA

i)North Korea/South Korea/

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 c  CHINA

( zerohedge)

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)The UK and the EU reach an agreement with respect to citizens of UK in the EU and visa versa. However the Irish border questions still linger

( zerohedge)

ii)the pound does not react well to the news as the full BREXIT complexity remains

( zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)Israel

Hamas fired 7 rockets into Israel.  All rocket fire was knocked down by their defense shield

( zerohedge)

i b)Israel bombs Hamas targets inside GAZA

(courtesy zerohedge)

i c) a day of rage!

( zerohedge)

ii)Iraq/Israel/USA

Now the Shiite Iraq militia weighs in and states that the Trump recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel is a “legitimate reason” to attack Americans:

(courtesy zerohedge)

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

7. OIL ISSUES

8. EMERGING MARKET

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)I wonder why?  maybe they feel that if push comes to shove they cannot get any bitcoins to satisfy longs?

( Stafford/London’s Financial times)

ii)Mike Kosares explains why gold is the only true money

( GATA/Mike Kosares)

iii)Interesting:  Reuters explains that Bitcoin is a good means of currency exchange because it cannot be manipulated. Thus indirectly they are stating that gold/silver is manipulated

(Reuters/GATA)

iv)The volatility is causing headaches for our future players:

Katz/Bloomberg)

v)Insider manipulation of bitcoin may be legal. The author explains

( Kharif/Bloomberg)

vi)Chaos in Bitcoin swings signal a futures fiasco

( zerohedge)

vii) Russia

Despite sanctions Russia is doing just fine: their bond yields have now plunged to a 4 yr low.  The huge addition of official gold is certainly helping the country’s stability

(courtesy zero hedge)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

i)the street is catching on:  November payrolls jump by 228,000 but the most important aspect of the report is wage growth and again it disappoints

( zerohedge)

ib)Strange!! with average hourly growing by only .2% one would expect that the bulk of the jobs came from the minimum wage sector.  From the data this is not true as most came from the white collar/professional side of things

( zerohedge)

iii)Trump ready to release his campaign promise for public works/infrastructure

( Industry Week)

iv)This does not look good at all:  A judge who sits on the FISO court recuses himself immediately? Flynn was set up by the Democrats and all parties to this should be put into prison

( zero hedge)

v)Trump slams the behaviour of Wells Fargo.  Just wait until he finds out that all the major banksters have caused the USA to lose of all its gold

( zerohedge)

vi)Devastation!!

(courtesy zerohedge)

vii)Soft data University of Michigan Consumer Confidence index tumbles in November

( zerohedge)

Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest  FELL BY A LESS THAN EXPECTED  5259  CONTRACTS DOWN to an OI level of 458,857 DESPITE THE GOOD  SIZED FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($12.70 LOSS WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING).  IN ACTUAL FACT WE DID NOT HAVE ANY GOLD  LIQUIDATION.  WE  HAD ANOTHER LARGE COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED  A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS. THE CME REPORTS THAT 0 EFPS WERE ISSUED FOR DECEMBER  AND 18,804 EFP’S WERE ISSUED FOR FEBRUARY FOR A TOTAL OF 18,804 CONTRACTS. THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS.  THE CONSTANT BANKER RAIDS CONTINUE AS THEY TRY TO GET  OUR “MATHEMATICAL PAPER LONGS” IN GOLD TO LIQUIDATE THEIR POSITIONS AT THE COMEX. SO FAR IT HAS NOT SUCCEEDED (AS THEY MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS) AND THUS THE CONTINUAL RAID WE WITNESSED YESTERDAY. THE CME HAS BEEN VERY TARDY IN THEIR REPORTING OF EFP’S CONTRACTS AFTER A COMEX OI MORPHS INTO AN EFP WHICH WAS THE REASON FOR MY 2ND LETTER TO THE CFTC.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED TODAY: 13,545 OI CONTRACTS IN THAT 18,804 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS LONGS TO LONDON AS A FORWARD AND WE LOST  5259 COMEX CONTRACTS.  NET GAIN: 13,545 contracts OR 1.355 MILLION OZ OR 42.16 TONNES

Result: A LESS THAN EXPECTED DECREASE IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST DESPITE THE HEAVY FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD YESTERDAY ($12.70.)   WE HAD NO REAL GOLD LIQUIDATION. TOTAL OPEN INTEREST GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 13,545 OI CONTRACTS…

We have now entered the  active contract month of DECEMBER. The open interest for the front month of December saw it’s open interest decline by 216 contracts down to 2167.  We had 38 notices filed upon yesterday so we lost 178 COMEX contracts or an additional 17,800 oz will not stand for delivery AT THE COMEX in this active delivery month of December but they did migrate over to London as a forward for February…the reason for the move is that there is not any gold for them at the comex.

January saw its open interest LOSS OF 62 contracts DOWN to 2053. FEBRUARY saw a loss of 6389 contacts down to 351,663.

We had 62 notice(s) filed upon today for 6200 oz

PRELIMINARY VOLUME TODAY ESTIMATED;  268,972

FINAL NUMBERS CONFIRMED FOR YESTERDAY:  342,381

comex gold volumes are increasing dramatically

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI FELL BY A LESS THAN EXPECTED 1535 CONTRACTS  FROM 194,631 UP TO 193,096 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S HEAVY 19 CENT LOSS IN PRICE (AND CONTINUAL RAIDING OF OUR PRECIOUS METALS).  HOWEVER WE DID HAVE ANOTHER STRONG 2951 EMERGENCY EFP’S FOR MARCH ISSUED BY OUR BANKERS (ZERO FOR DECEMBER) TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 2951.  IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE SILVER BOYS HAVE STARTED TO MIGRATE TO LONDON FROM THE START OF DELIVERY MONTH AND CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH UNTIL FIRST DAY NOTICE JUST LIKE WE ARE WITNESSING TODAY.  USUALLY WE NOTED THAT CONTRACTION IN OI OCCURRED ONLY DURING THE LAST WEEK OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH. THIS PROCESS HAS JUST BEGUN IN EARNEST IN SILVER STARTING IN SEPTEMBER.  HOWEVER, IN GOLD, WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING THIS FOR THE PAST 2 YEARS.  WITHOUT A DOUBT WE HAD NO  LONG SILVER LIQUIDATION AS DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER REMAINS STRONG ESPECIALLY AS WE WITNESS A HUGE AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR METAL IN DECEMBER AS WELL AS THAT MASSIVE MIGRATION OF EFPS OVER TO LONDON. IT SEEMS THAT ALL OF OUR LOST SILVER COMEX OI CONTRACTS HAVE MIGRATED OVER TO THE PHYSICAL HUB OF OUR PRECIOUS METALS, LONDON. ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 1416 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS:

1535 CONTRACTS LOST AT THE COMEX WITH THE ADDITION OF  2951 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN: 1416 CONTRACTS

We are now in the big active delivery month of December and here the OI fell by 41 contracts down to 836.  We had 84 notices filed upon yesterday so we GAINED 43 contract or an additional 215,000 oz will  stand in this active delivery month of December.

The January contract month FELL by 40 contracts DOWN to 1359.  February saw a GAIN OF 8 OI contract RISING TO 64. The March contract LOST 1373 contracts DOWN to 154,267.

We had 54 notice(s) filed initially for 270,000 oz for the DECEMBER. 2017 contract

INITIAL standings for DECEMBER

 Dec 8/2017.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz   nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz  
26,485.998 oz
HSBC
Scotia
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz    nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz 
96,453.000
3000 kilobars
oz
No of oz served (contracts) today
 
62 notice(s)
6200 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
2105 contracts
(210,500 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
6095 notices
609500 oz
18.958 tonnes
Total accumulative withdrawals  of gold from the Dealers inventory this month   NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month     xxx oz
Today we HAD  0 kilobar trans

WE HAD nil DEALER DEPOSIT:
total dealer deposits: nil oz

We had nil dealer withdrawals:
total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 1 customer deposit(s):

i) Into HSBC: 96,453.0000 oz ??

3000.09 kilobars???

very suspect!

total customer deposits 96,453.000  oz

We had 2 customer withdrawal(s)

i) Out of HSBC: 10,410,998 oz

ii) Out of Scotia:  10,075.000?  exact weight/not kilobars

Total customer withdrawals: 26,488.998 oz

we had 0 adjustment(s)

*December is the biggest delivery month of the year for gold and the fact that no gold has entered the vaults these past three trading days speaks volumes that there is no appreciable gold at the comex to deliver upon our longs and thus the reason for the migration to London

For DECEMBER:
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 7 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 62 contract(s) of which 55 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the DECEMBER. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (6095) x 100 oz or 609,500 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC. (2167 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (62 x 100 oz per contract) equals 837,800 oz, the number of ounces standing in this  active month of DECEMBER

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the DECEMBER contract month:

No of notices served (6095) x 100 oz or ounces + {(2167)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (62) x 100 oz which equals 820,000 oz standing in this active delivery month of DECEMBER (25.50 tonnes). THERE IS  28 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY SO FAR.

WE LOST 178 COMEX CONTRACTS STANDING OR 17,800 OZ WILL NOT STAND AT THE COMEX  BUT THESE CONTRACTS MORPHED INTO A FEB LONDON FORWARD.

.

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ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR DECEMBER,  THE INITIAL  GOLD STANDING:  39.038 TONNES STANDING

BY THE END OF THE MONTH:  FINAL: 29.791 TONNES STOOD FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS THE REMAINDER HAD TRANSFERRED OVER TO LONDON FORWARDS.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Total dealer inventory 913,599.261 or 28.41 tonnes (dealer gold continues to disappear)
Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) = 8,976,553.810 or 279.20 tonnes

I have a sneaky feeling that these withdrawals of gold in kilobars are being used in the hypothecating process and are being used in the raiding of gold!
The gold comex is an absolute fraud. The use of kilobars and exact weights makes the data totally absurd and fraudulent! To me, the only thing that makes sense is the fact that “kilobars: are entries of hypothecated gold sent to other jurisdictions so that they will not be short with their underwritten derivatives in that jurisdiction. This would be similar to the rehypothecated gold used by Jon Corzine at MF Global.

IN THE LAST 14 MONTHS 75 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE DECEMBER DELIVERY MONTH

DECEMBER INITIAL standings

 Dec 8/ 2017
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory  nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 412,003.000 oz
exact weight??
Scotia
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
 39,473.231
oz
International
Delaware
Deposits to the Customer Inventory 
 nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
54 CONTRACT(S)
(270,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
782 contract
(3,910,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 5285 contracts

(26,425,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month  NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal  of silver from the Customer inventory this month

today, we had 0 deposit(s) into the dealer account:

total dealer deposit: nil  oz

we had 0 dealer withdrawals:

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 1 customer withdrawal(s):

i) Out  of  Scotia  10,075.000 oz ?? exact weight

ii) Out of HSBC: 10,410.998 oz

TOTAL CUSTOMER WITHDRAWAL  26,488.998 oz

We had 1 Customer deposit(s):

i) Into Scotia: 412,003.000 oz

***deposits into JPMorgan have stopped again
In the month of March and February, JPMorgan stopped (received) almost all of the comex silver contracts.
why is JPMorgan bringing in so much silver??? why is this not criminal in that they are also the massive short in silver

total customer deposits: 412,003.000 oz

we had 0 adjustment(s)

The total number of notices filed today for the DECEMBER. contract month is represented by 54 contract(s) FOR 270,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in DECEMBER., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 5285 x 5,000 oz = 26,425,0000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC. (836) and the number of notices served upon today (54 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the DECEMBER contract month: 5285 (notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of DECEMBER(836) -number of notices served upon today (54)x 5000 oz equals 30,335,000 oz of silver standing for the DECEMBER contract month. This is EXCELLENT for this active delivery month of November.

WE GAINED AN ADDITIONAL 43 CONTRACTS OR 215,000 OZ THAT WILL STAND AT THE COMEX

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR THE DECEMBER 2016 CONTRACT WE HAD 15.282 MILLION OZ STAND.

THE FINAL STANDING: 19.900 MILLION OZ AS QUEUE JUMPING INTENSIFIED.

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ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 72966

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY:   80,525 CONTRACTS

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 80.525 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO 402 MILLION OZ OR 57.5% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION.  THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

Total dealer silver: 56.695 million
Total number of dealer and customer silver: 239.903 million oz

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott and Central Fund of Canada

1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative 2.5 percent to NAV usa funds and Negative 2.4% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!!
Percentage of fund in gold 63.4%
Percentage of fund in silver:36.3%
cash .+.3%( Dec 8/2017)

2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -0.59% (Dec 8 /2017)
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -0.48% to NAV (Dec 8/2017 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -0.59%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ territory at -0.48%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail but being rescued by Sprott.
Sprott WINS hostile 3.1 billion bid to take over Central Fund of Canada

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD

Dec 8/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.81 TONNES

Dec 7/A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 2.66 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.81 TONNES

Dec 6/No changes in GOLD inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 845.47 tonnes

Dec 5/A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.64 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.47 TONNES

Dec 4/A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 8.56 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/THE BLEEDING OF GLD GOLD HAS STOPPED/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 848.11 TONNES

Dec 1/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 839.55 TONNES

Nov 30/no change in gold inventory at the GLD. Inventory rests at 839.55 tonnes

Nov 29/a withdrawal of 2.66 tonnes at the GLD/Inventory rests at 839.55 tonnes

NOV 28/ no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 842.21 tonnes

Nov 27 Strange!! we gold up by $6.40 today, we had a good sized withdrawal of 1.18 tonnes from the GLD. Here is something that is also strange: we have had exactly 1.18 tonnes of gold withdrawn from the comex on 5 separate occasions in the past 30 days..explanation?

Nov 24/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 843.09 tonnes

Nov 22/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 843.39 tonnes

Nov 21/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 843.39 tonnes

NOV 20/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 843.39 tonnes

Nov 17/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 843.39 tonnes

Nov 16./NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.39 TONNES

Nov 15./no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 843.09 tonnes

NOV 14/a small deposit of .300 tonnes into the GLD inventory/Inventory rests at 843.39 tonnes

Nov 13/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.09 TONNES

Nov 10/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 843.09 tonnes

Nov 9/no changes in inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 843.09 tonnes

NOV 8/ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD DESPITE GOLD’S RISE TODAY. INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.09

Nov 7/a huge withdrawal of 1.48 tonnes of gold from the GLD/Inventory rests at 844.27 tonnes

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Dec 8/2017/ Inventory rests tonight at 842.81 tonnes

*IN LAST 289 TRADING DAYS: 98.14 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 224 TRADING DAYS: A NET 59.14 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO GLD INVENTORY.
*FROM FEB 1/2017: A NET 28.03 TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED.

end

Now the SLV Inventory

Dec 8/A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.642 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.355 MILLION OZ/

Dec 7/strange!! with the continual whacking of silver, no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 321.713

Dec 6/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory remains at 21.713 million oz.

Dec 5/THIS ONE HIT ME LIKE A TON OF BRICKS: SLV ADDS 2.507 MILLION OZ DESPITE THE HUGE DRUBBING SILVER TOOK TODAY. (PRICE DISCOVERY?)

Dec 4/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.207 MILLION OZ/

Dec 1/VERY STRANGE!! WITH SILVER IN THE DUMPSTER THESE PAST FEW DAYS, SLV ADDS 2.076 MILLION OZ/???

INVENTORY 319.207 MILLION OZ/

Nov 30/no changes in silver inventory despite the huge drop in price/inventory rests at 317.130 million oz

Nov 29/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 317.130 million oz/strange!! at drop of 32 cents and no change in inventory?

Nov 28/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 317.130 million oz.

Nov 27/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY DESPITE A ZERO GAIN IN PRICE /QUITE OPPOSITE TO GOLD WHICH SAW 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD WITHDRAWN DESPITE A RISE IN PRICE OF $6.40

Nov 24/A WITHDRAWAL OF 944,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.130 MILLION OZ

Nov 22/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 318.074 million oz.

Nov 21/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 318.074 million oz/

NOV 20/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 318.074 million oz

Nov 17/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 318.074 million oz/

Nov 16./NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.074 MILLION OZ/

Nov 15./no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 318.074 tones

NOV 14/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 318.074 tonnes

Nov 13/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.074 MILLION OZ

Nov 10/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 318.074 million oz/

Nov 9/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 318.074 million oz.

NOV 8/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.074 MILLION OZ

Nov 7/a huge withdrawal of 944,000 oz from the SLV/inventory rests at 318.074 million oz/

Dec 8/2017:

Inventory 324.355 million oz

end

6 Month MM GOFO
Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration

+ 1.50%
12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.80%
30 day trend

end

I promise from this day forth I will not bring you the COT report because of its nonsense

Here is the gold COT

Gold COT Report – Futures
Large Speculators Commercial Total
Long Short Spreading Long Short Long Short
251,234 77,905 44,905 132,509 322,399 428,648 445,209
Change from Prior Reporting Period
-36,150 14,938 -7,450 15,678 -40,973 -27,922 -33,485
Traders
177 86 79 47 49 256 186
 
Small Speculators  
Long Short Open Interest  
44,147 27,586 472,795  
-3,093 2,470 -31,015  
non reportable positions Change from the previous reporting period
COT Gold Report – Positions as of Tuesday, December 5, 2017

Our large speculators

Our speculators morphed into London forwards and as such 36,150 contracts leave the speculator comex account for a long London forward

those specs who remain short, added another 14,938 contracts

no doubt that these guys who increased their shorts are the mathematical players who fall victim to the antics of the banks and HFT

Our commercials

those commercials who have been long in gold added 15,678 contracts. These guys bought the longs and were supplied with paper from the stupid mathematical players.

those commercials who have been short entered into contracts to supply a London forward and as such its OI fell by 40,973 contracts

Our small speculators

those small specs that have been long in gold pitched 3093 contracts from their long side

those small specs that have been short in gold added 2470 contracts to their short side

Now you can visualize how the EFP’s do their magic

Now silver;;

Our large speculators

those speculators who have been long in silver pitched 5233 contracts from their long side  ( I agree with this)..these guys morphed into London forwards

those speculators who have been short in silver added 22,123 contracts to their short side

no doubt that the increased short position was caused by the bankers who influenced HFT to lower the silver price.  These mathematical players always get killed in the process.  Silver should be heading northbound shortly

Our commercials

those commercials who have been long in silver added 9701 contracts to their long side

those commercials who have been short in silver provided EFP’s to the tune of 17,020 and thus those contracts have been transferred to London.

Our small speculators

those small specs that have been long in silver added 3242 contracts to their long side.

those small specs that have been short in silver added 1984 contracts to their short side.

 

end

Major gold/silver trading /commentaries for FRIDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.

GOLD/SILVER

Goldcore:

OFF TODAY

END

GOLD/SILVER TRADING;

Gold demand increases along with uncertainty thanks to Trump, Brexit and North Korea

 
GoldCore's picture

Gold demand increases along with uncertainty thanks to Trump, Brexit and North Korea

– Recent events have increased concerns over ability of leaders to repair rather than excerbate problems
– Holdings in gold-backed ETFs rose by 9.1 tonnes to 2,357 tonnes thanks to European demand
– Trump inflames Middle East tensions. Israel announcement seen as sign of U.S. “failure and impotence”
– Key Brexit Minister admits divorce from EU could have consequences as bad as the financial crisis
– Chinese media bordering North Korea offer advice on how to deal with nuclear attack

Last Saturday was the 75th anniversary of the Chicago Pile experiment. The experiment that proved for the first time that an atomic bomb could exist. The experiment was a key step in the Manhattan Project that went onto develop the infamous bomb in World War II.

The timing of the anniversary could not be more apt. The results of the experiment not only resulted in devastation at the end of the Second World War but also changed science and turned the nature of war on its head.

Today the world feels very much on the brink of something huge about to be detonated. It might be a nuclear weapon from North Korea, it could be the grenade that Trump has just thrown into the Middle East peace protest or it might be a subtle economic disaster courtesy of Brexit. It might be all three.

The truth is we just don’t know. It is this uncertainty that is making so many investors and savers nervous. There is almost a euphoria to the panic – see the bitcoin price by way of example or stock market performances. But there is also an underlying air of calm and understanding. Gold investment is climbing whilst Google searches for ‘buy gold’ peaked last month.

Trump is ‘declaring war against 1.5 billion Muslims’

No matter your thoughts on Trump’s decision to recognise Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, it cannot be denied that it is a contentious one. The city is arguably the most important aspect of the entire Palestine question.

Trump’s decision has reversed decades of US policy and brought with it a raft of criticism from US allies as well as the Arab and Muslim world.

President Mahmoud Abbas said the decision was tantamount to the United States “abdicating its role as a peace mediator”.

A spokesman for Hamas said the decision would “open the gates of hell on US interests in the region”.

Saudi Arabian media say King Salman told Mr Trump by telephone on Tuesday that the relocation of the embassy or recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital “would constitute a flagrant provocation of Muslims, all over the world”.

His views were echoed by President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi of Egypt, who warned against “complicating the situation in the region by introducing measures that would undermine chances for peace in the Middle East”.

And this is seen as a declaration of war:

the Palestinian delegate to the United Kingdom said on Wednesday that President Trump’s move to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel signals “a declaration of war” in the region. “He is declaring war in the Middle East, he is declaring war against 1.5 billion Muslims, hundreds of millions of Christians that are not going to accept the holy shrines to be totally under the hegemony of Israel,” Manuel Hassassian told BBC 4 Radio’s “Today.”

Trump argued that this is a ” long overdue step to advance the peace process and work towards a lasting agreement”. Allies and others swiftly disagreed with some suggestions that this is not about peace but entirely politically strategic.

The 1997 film Wag The Dog has become shorthand for Presidents using diversionary tactics. For example, in 1998 Clinton launched air-strikes on Afghanistan and Sudan just days after a Grand Jury hearing into his conduct with Miss Monica Lewinsky.

Today we may be seeing a similar approach from President Trump. After all, Trump’s Israel announcement comes immediately after his former National-Security Adviser Michael Flynn pleaded guilty and agreed to cooperate with the FBI.

We could also be seeing an attempt by Trump to stir up Muslim violence as a political tool. This would not be surprising given a large chunk of his campaign was about using so-called Muslim barbarism as a political strategy. This latest announcement is a provocation.

We have seen in the past how long and expensive campaigns in the Middle East can go on for. The disruption they cause and the vast expense they bring. The United States is unlikely to suddenly turn its back on its primary allies in the region – Israel and Saudi Arabia – a conflict in itself. Therefore one should expect more violence and increased involvement by Trump in the war zone that is just getting started.

Elsewhere in the world…nuclear bombs

Trump has form when it comes to provoking hotbeds of tension. His most recent head-to-head was of course with North Korea.

This year has been one of great progress for the country, with 23 reported missile tests. Each one making new ground and some even breaking into forbidden airspace.

China has been vital when it comes to preventing the despot that is Kim-Jong Un from going literally nuclear on the US. However it seems that perhaps they are even getting quite nervous.

According to Business Insider a Chinese newspaper based next to North Korea has published a full-page guide on how to deal with a nuclear attack.

Whilst it was later explained that this was not about North Korea but instead just an educational guidance on nuclear weapons, one has to wonder what provoked such a reaction.

Is the next financial crisis around the corner?

Much of the world is likely bored by Trump’s ongoing sabre-rattling. Here in the UK we have other pressing issues to deal with. Many of which are becoming the new definition of uncertainty – how do you handle a problem like Brexit?

We are barely over the 2008 financial crisis. It rather feels like we keep sweeping the results of it under the carpet and now we’re stepping over rather large, often non-negotiable mounds. But there is now something else which could cause as far-reaching consequences.

David Davis, Brexit Minister, told MPs this week that his department had failed to carry out a qualitative assessment of the Brexit impact because it was simply impossible.

He explained that as with the financial crisis, the economic rule book will in all likelihood go out the window should Brexit happen:

“It will have an effect, the assessment of that effect is not as straightforward as people imagine.

“I’m not a fan of economic models because they have all proven wrong. When you have a paradigm change – as happened in 2008 with the financial crisis – all the models were wrong”

This explanation comes as Prime Minister Theresa May has just about managed to get a handle on Brexit negotiations. The situation has been so uncertain that businesses are being forced to take protective measures against the worst possible outcomes.

Reuters explains:

Senior executives in the financial services sector, which accounts for about 12 percent of the economy, told Reuters May’s efforts to secure a transition deal had come too late and they had no choice but to start restructuring.

The uncertainty is particularly painful for the manufacturing sector as low margins make it risky for them to restructure unless it is essential. They have been holding off on investment but are preparing for new certification that would allow them to sell in Europe if there is no deal.

“The delay is so great and the uncertainty is so great that companies have no choice but to start triggering their plans,” the head of one of Britain’s largest companies said.

Uncertainty should lead to certainty about gold investment

Every week there are stories of politicians screwing up one way or another. Granted, this week feels particularly bad. But in truth there were always going to be problems with Brexit, North Korea was always going to be testing nuclear weapons and the Middle East was a bubbling cauldron waiting to have the heat turned up.

The outcome (for now) remains the same: we don’t know how this will end. Whilst the future might seem uncertain but the ways in which we can protect ourselves are anything but. Gold and silver act as both financial insurance and portfolio diversifiers.

Last month holdings in gold ETFs increased and more people showed an interest in gold investment. This suggests that savers are no longer concerned about the low, opportunity cost of holding gold. Instead they are realising that the uncertainty we see across the globe is not because of one event such as a bad negotiation or announcement, instead it is the general air of uncertainty and concern as to how this will pan out.

Those looking to insure their portfolio against global events should ignore the day-to-day reports and instead prepare for these guaranteed uncertain times by diversifying and owning gold and silver. For many years, gold and silver have protected investors and savers from uncertainty, both economic and geopolitical.

Related reading

Twitter, elections and the Middle East drive uncertainty

Pension Funds, Sovereign Wealth Funds, Central Banks “Stock Up” on Gold “Amid Uncertainty”

Buy Gold As Fed Shows Uncertainty And Concern Over Financial ‘Imbalances’

News and Commentary

Gold rises on bargain hunting after slumping to over 4-month low (Reuters.com)

Dollar Heads for Weekly Gain, Asia Stocks Advance (Bloomberg.com)

Platinum’s discount to palladium hits 16-year-high (Reuters.com)

Consumer credit accelerated in October by largest amount in 11 months (MarketWatch.com)

U.S. Stocks Climb as Pound Jumps, Crude Rebounds (Bloomberg.com)


Source: ZeroHedge

Reuters mentions ‘central bank manipulation’ (Reuters.com)

Mike Kosares: The gift of gold is peace of mind (USAGold.com)

Why the stock wobble isn’t helping gold (Bloomberg.com)

De-Dollarization Continues: China, Iran To Eliminate Greenback From Bilateral Trade (ZeroHedge.com)

Bill Murphy: Rocketing bitcoin highlights gold and silver suppression (Gata.org)

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

08 Dec: USD 1,245.85, GBP 924.42 & EUR 1,061.09 per ounce
07 Dec: USD 1,256.80, GBP 937.57 & EUR 1,066.77 per ounce
06 Dec: USD 1,268.55, GBP 948.37 & EUR 1,072.31 per ounce
05 Dec: USD 1,275.90, GBP 950.29 & EUR 1,075.71 per ounce
04 Dec: USD 1,279.10, GBP 952.67 & EUR 1,079.43 per ounce
01 Dec: USD 1,277.25, GBP 946.57 & EUR 1,072.51 per ounce
30 Nov: USD 1,282.15, GBP 952.64 & EUR 1,084.06 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

08 Dec: USD 15.83, GBP 11.76 & EUR 13.48 per ounce
07 Dec: USD 15.91, GBP 11.94 & EUR 13.49 per ounce
06 Dec: USD 16.12, GBP 12.06 & EUR 13.64 per ounce
05 Dec: USD 16.29, GBP 12.14 & EUR 13.72 per ounce
04 Dec: USD 16.33, GBP 12.09 & EUR 13.77 per ounce
01 Dec: USD 16.42, GBP 12.16 & EUR 13.80 per ounce
30 Nov: USD 16.57, GBP 12.32 & EUR 14.00 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– UK Pensions Risk – Time to Rebalance and Allocate to Cash and Gold
– Bailins Coming In EU – 114 Italian Banks Have NP Loans Exceeding Tangible Assets
– Silver’s Positive Fundamentals Due To Strong Demand In Key Growth Industries
– An Interview with GoldCore Founder, Mark O’Byrne
– Risk Of Online Accounts Seen As One of Largest Brokerages In World Halts Online Trading After “Glitch”
– Low Cost Gold In The Age Of QE, AI, Trump and War
– Own Gold Bullion To “Support National Security” – Russian Central Bank
– Bitcoin $10,000 – Huge Volatility of Cryptocurrencies and Risky Fiat Making Gold Attractive
– Financial Advice from Dr Wayne Dyer
– Buy Gold As Fed Shows Uncertainty And Concern Over Financial ‘Imbalances’
– Brexit Budget – Grim Outlook As UK Economy Downgraded
– Geopolitical Risk Highest “In Four Decades” – Gold Demand in Germany and Globally to Remain Robust
– Gold Versus Bitcoin: The Pro-Gold Argument Takes Shape

END

Lawrie is now in the camp showing that Chinese demand is 2000 tonnes for the year and this will be citizens gold (not sovereign or official gold)

Chinese 2017 gold demand headed for more than 2,000 tonnes – lawrieongold

Another article published on the Sharps Pixley website taking Shanghai Gold Exchange withdrawal figures  as a proxy for Chinese demand: 

There is a certain amount of controversy over whether Shanghai Gold Exchange actual gold withdrawal levels are equivalent to the country’s true gold demand or not.  The major gold consultancies like Metals Focus, GFMS and CPM Group all aver that they are not, yet the monthly and annual gold withdrawal figures as published by the SGE bear a far closer relationship to known Chinese gold assimilations (gold imports + domestic production + scrap supply) than the consultancies’ demand estimates and therefore we stick by our opinion that SGE gold withdrawal figures are a far better representation of Chinese gold consumption (in terms of the amount of gold bullion being absorbed by the nation) than other estimates of Chinese demand despite a major discrepancy with the figures provided by the consultancies.  In any case SGE gold withdrawal comparisons on a month by month level have to be indicative of Chinese internal demand.

The table published below, thus presents the month by month SGE gold withdrawal figures for the past three years – years which include the record 2015 year where Chinese demand peaked.  As can be seen, on a year by year basis 2017 is coming out higher than last year although still comfortably below the 2015 record.

Table: SGE Monthly Gold Withdrawals (Tonnes)

Month 2017 2016 2015 % change 2016-2017 % change 2015-2017
January 184.41 225.08 255.42 – 18.1%  -27.8%
February* 148.24 107.60 156.36 +37.8% -5.2%
March  192.25 183.24 213.35  +4.9%  -9.9%
April  165.78 171.40 195.45  -3.3%  -15.2%
May  138.08 147.28 162.15  -6.2%  -14.8%
June  155.51 138.51 195.67  +12.3% -20.5%
July  144.71 117.58 285.50  +23.1%  -49.3%
August  161.41 144.44 265.27  +11.7%  -39.2%
September  214.24 170.90 259.98 +25.4% -17.6%
October  151.54  153.25 176.29  -1.1%  -14.0%
November  189.10  214.72 202.71 -11.9%   -6.7%
December  196.37 228.21
Year to date 1845.27 1755.65 2368.15 +  5.1% – 22.1%
Full Year  1,970.37 2,596.37

Many media reports have been suggesting weak Chinese demand this year – probably based on the sharpish drop in gold export figures to the Chinese mainland from Hong Kong, which used to be the main import route for foreign gold entering China.  But to counter this, the most up to date SGE withdrawals figures suggest that 2017 is heading to come in at over 2,000 tonnes.  If December withdrawal figures come in at close to last year’s 196 tonnes, then the full year total will be comfortably over 2,000 tonnes, but given the Chinese New Year in 2018 falls around 3 weeks later than in the current one, the December withdrawals level could well be higher than last year bringing the annual total within range of the 2013 and 2014 totals –previously the second and third highest on record – see graphic of the 11-month SGE withdrawals totals for the past 10 years from Nick Laird’s www.goldchartsrus.com site.

So, by all considerations, Chinese gold demand is still alive and well, although not as high as in the record 2015 year, which is a bit of an outlier.  The fall in gold exports to the mainland from Hong Kong is because every year more and more of mainland China’s gold imports are arriving there directly through cities like Beijing and Shanghai and completely bypassing Hong Kong altogether.  A great example of this has been the comparative levels of Swiss gold exports to China and Hong Kong (see: Big Surge in Swiss gold exports to India and China for the most recent figures).  Switzerland is one of the biggest gold exporters to China and Hong Kong and over the past two years its exports to the Chinese mainland have dwarfed those going into Hong Kong.

-END-

I wonder why?  maybe they feel that if push comes to shove they cannot get any bitcoins to satisfy longs?

(courtesy Stafford/London’s Financial times)

Wall Street banks push back on launch of bitcoin futures

 Section: 

By Philip Stafford
Financial Times, London
Thursday, December 7, 2017

The world’s largest banks are pushing back on the introduction of bitcoin futures, raising concerns with U.S. regulators that the financial system is ill-prepared for the launch of the contracts as the value of the volatile cryptocurrency has soared.

The price of bitcoin has risen to a new high of more than $15,000 on several exchanges. Institutional investors have been keen to trade the asset but only via a regulated market.

However, the planned launch in the next 10 days of futures contracts by the Chicago exchanges CME Group and CBOE Global Markets, given a green light from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission last week, has prompted a backlash among the major brokers who backstop trading across the industry.

According to a draft letter to the CFTC from the Futures Industry Association, the main futures industry lobby group whose members include all the largest Wall Street banks, the rapid introduction of bitcoin futures “did not allow for proper public transparency and input.”

The lobby group represents some of the world’s largest brokers, including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, and Citigroup. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.ft.com/content/5ee5fda2-daa7-11e7-a039-c64b1c09b482

END

Mike Kosares explains why gold is the only true money

(courtesy GATA/Mike Kosares)

Mike Kosares: The gift of gold is peace of mind

 Section: 

2:35p ET Thursday, December 7, 2017

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Noting the increasing strangeness of the markets, USAGold’s Mike Kosares writes today that gold still has a place and a future.

He says: “The gift of gold — the one passed from generation to generation in ancient times to present — is the protection it offers against an unpredictable economy. The gift of gold, in short, is peace of mind.”

Kosares’ commentary is headlined “The Gift of Gold — A Simple Thought for the Holiday Season” and it’s posted at USAGold here:

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/2017/12/07/the-gift-of-gold-a-simple-tho…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Interesting:  Reuters explains that Bitcoin is a good means of currency exchange because it cannot be manipulated. Thus indirectly they are stating that gold/silver is manipulated

(Reuters/GATA)

Reuters mentions ‘central bank manipulation’

 Section: 

So how about reporting on it?

* * *

Bitcoin Flirts with $16,000, Alarm Bells Ring Louder

By Jemima Kelly and Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
Reuters
Thursday, December 7, 2017

Bitcoin rocketed to a lifetime high just shy of $16,000 today after climbing some 60 percent over one week, intensifying the debate about whether the cryptocurrency is in a bubble about to burst.

The largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange struggled to keep up with record traffic as the price surged, with an upcoming launch of the first bitcoin futures contract further fueling investor interest.

Proponents say bitcoin is a good medium of exchange and a way to store value, much like a precious metal. They also argue it is preferable to traditional currencies because it is not subject to central bank manipulation. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-markets-bitcoin/bitcoin-flirts-with-1…

END

The volatility is causing headaches for our future players:

Katz/Bloomberg)

Stunning swings in bitcoin promise start-and-stop futures sessions

 Section: 

By Lily Katz
Bloomberg News
Thursday, December 7, 2017

Bitcoin futures trading looks like it’s going to be choppy.

The cryptocurrency’s eye-popping rally would have triggered so-called circuit breakers on seven of the past 10 days, pausing or even halting trading to ensure an orderly session, based on rules planned by exchanges.

CME Group Inc. stipulates a two-minute trading pause if the price of the contract rises or falls 7 percent from the prior day’s settlement price. There’d be another two-minute pause if the gap widened to 13 percent. No trades can occur at prices higher than 20 percent from the settlement.

Today would have been wild. The 7 percent threshold hit less than two hours after the session started. A few hours later 13 percent fell. Around 10:15 a.m. the 20 percent cap was hit and held for about an hour. And the price popped above that level at least six other times over the rest of the day.

Cboe Global Markets Inc. has its own rules, halting trading for two minutes if prices rise or fall 10 percent, and for five minutes at 20 percent. Cboe futures are set to start Sunday, while CME targets Dec. 18. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-07/stunning-bitcoin-rall…

END

Insider manipulation of bitcoin may be legal. The author explains

(courtesy Kharif/Bloomberg)

Insider manipulation of bitcoin price may be legal

 Section: 

The Bitcoin Whales: 1,000 People Who Own 40 Percent of the Market

By Olga Kharif
Bloomberg News
Friday, December 8, 2017

On Nov. 12 someone moved almost 25,000 bitcoins, worth about $159 million at the time, to an online exchange. The news soon rippled through online forums, with bitcoin traders arguing about whether it meant the owner was about to sell the digital currency.

Holders of large amounts of bitcoin are often known as whales, amd they’re becoming a worry for investors. They can send prices plummeting by selling even a portion of their holdings. And those sales are more probable now that the cryptocurrency is up nearly twelvefold from the beginning of the year

About 40 percent of bitcoin is held by perhaps 1,000 users; at current prices, each may want to sell about half of his or her holdings, says Aaron Brown, former managing director and head of financial markets research at AQR Capital Management. (Brown is a contributor to the Bloomberg Prophets online column.)

What’s more, the whales can coordinate their moves or preview them to a select few. Many of the large owners have known one another for years and stuck by bitcoin through the early days when it was derided, and they can potentially band together to tank or prop up the market.

“I think there are a few hundred guys,” says Kyle Samani, managing partner at Multicoin Capital. “They all probably can call each other, and they probably have.”

One reason to think so: At least some kinds of information sharing are legal, says Gary Ross, a securities lawyer at Ross & Shulga. Because bitcoin is a digital currency and not a security, he says, there’s no prohibition against a trade in which a group agrees to buy enough to push the price up and then cashes out in minutes.

Regulators have been slow to catch up with cryptocurrency trading, so many of the rules are still murky. If traders not only pushed the price up but also went online to spread rumors, that might count as fraud.

Bittrex, a digital currency exchange, recently wrote to its users warning that their accounts could be suspended if they banded together into “pump groups” aimed at manipulating prices. The law might also be different for other digital coins. Depending on the details of how they are structured and how investors expect to make money from them, some may count as currencies, according to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-08/the-bitcoin-whales-1-…

end

Chaos in Bitcoin swings signal a futures fiasco

(courtesy zerohedge)

Crypto Chaos – Bitcoin Price Swings Signal Futures Fiasco Ahead Of Launch

Take your pick as to what price you think Bitcoin is trading at this morning…

After an utterly shocking day yesterday with Bitcoin prices soaring towards $20,000 intraday on some exchanges, the true chaos of the cryptocurrency is unveiled ahead of Monday’s futures launch.

GDAX shows bitcoin trading up to $19,697 yesterday before plunging to $13,788 and then rebounding…

GDAX is flashing $15,500, BitStamp is signaling a plunge to $14,500, and Bloomberg’s aggregate price is around $15,000 – all of which are well down from yesterday’s GDAX-based $19,600 record highs as all the fears of margin clerks were realized amid yesterday’s chaotic run.

As Bloomberg reports,the cryptocurrency’s eye-popping rally would have triggered so-called circuit breakers on seven of the past 10 days, pausing or even halting trading to ensure an orderly session, based on rules planned by exchanges.

CME Group stipulates a two-minute trading pause if the price of the contract rises or falls 7 percent from the prior day’s settlement price. There’d be another two-minute pause if the gap widened to 13 percent. No trades can occur at prices higher than 20 percent from the settlement.

Thursday would’ve been wild. The 7 percent threshold hit less than two hours after the session started. A few hours later 13 percent fell. Around 10:15 a.m., the 20 percent cap was hit and held for about an hour. And the price popped above that level at least six other times over the rest of the day.

Cboe Global Markets has its own rules, halting trading for two minutes if prices rise or fall 10 percent, and for five minutes at 20 percent. Cboe futures are set to start Sunday, while CME targets Dec. 18.

Here is what the chaotic trading would have looked like in the last two days…

One thing of note is that as Bitcoin slides today, Ethereum is bid (up 6% vs Bitcoin’s 3% decline)…

While yesterday saw Mike Novogratz confirming: “This feels like what a speculative top feels like…”

“The only reason I’m not sure — and it might be the top for a short period of time — is that it’s a big world, and the market cap isn’t nearly big enough for it to be the top of the whole system.

CoinTelegraph reportsStefan Ingves, governor of Sweden’s Riksbank and the chairman of global regulators at the Basel Committee, has warned investors that the risk may be huge.According to the regulator, investing in Bitcoin is a dangerous endeavor.

The banking regulator stressed that investment in things that rise wildly is generally not a good idea, given the nature of investment generally. He said that the future of cryptocurrencies and the traditional banking world are not particularly linked, and made it clear that legacy banking was not a thing of the past. He said:

“Let me also stress that sometimes there is a bit of a hype when people talk about fintech, thinking that old-fashioned banking is going to go away. But I don’t think that is going to happen because regardless of the technology available, in most countries we have had banks for hundreds and hundreds of years and most likely it is going to continue that way.”

Still, we leave you with Novogratz’ perspective

“Bubbles don’t end until the buyers are all in, until there’s leverage and there’s no leverage in this system yet…”

“I think that’s what you wait for.”

Still, he’d like to see some of the volatility of trading bitcoin dissipate.

“I hope it calms down a bit just to give people a chance to breathe,” he said.

“Market participants can’t keep up with the frenetic pace.”

However, Mark Yusko notes “you are here”…

Bill Blain: Bitcoin Futures Could Be “A Clusterf*ck Of Monumental Proportions”

Crpto-‘currency’ or total carnage?

Mike Novogratz doesn’t see “quick adoption” of Bitcoin as a currency, preferring to think of it as ‘digital gold’.

Perhaps this is one reason why.

Amid its meteroic rise, Bitcoin is now 20 times more volatile than the US Dollar…

As MINT Partners’ Bill Blain exclaims, next week sees the improbable launch of Bitcoin futures. This looks like having the potential to be a clusterf*ck of monumental proportions when it bursts.

Every bank knows BTC’s extraordinary gains are a crowd delusion fuelled by the extraordinary promise of free wealth!

Yet, many will be willing to trade and settle them for their clients – largely retail.

Bitcoin has become the ultimate Klondyke.

Most folk don’t have a clue what BTC and the associated Blockchain ledger might be, but everyone knows what the price action has been.

Where that price is going is clouded by a lack of clarity on the technological nuances, distorted by Libertarian/Geek monetary gobbledy-gook, confused by a plethora of me-too coin offerings, speculators who see the chance of a quick buck, and investors scared they are missing out.

I’ve spent most of this week learning more and more about the limitations of Blockchain and two things are crystal clear – it doesn’t work, and it’s an evolutionary dead end that nimbler cryptocurrencies will take the niche of. But I still don’t understand why we need them at all?

If its central banks you object to, let’s have a private cryptocurrency based on gold, or oil, or something else tangible… but based on some computer babble? Not for me.

On the other hand, the long-term possibilities that BTC exploits in terms of Blockchain distributed ledgers are very real. Blockchain applications are going to utterly change finance..

end


Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED DOWN AT 6.6213 /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP AT 19.93 POINTS .55% / HANG SANG CLOSED UP 336.66 POINTS OR 1.19%
2. Nikkei closed UP 313.08 POINTS OR 1.39% /USA: YEN RISES TO 113.48

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN   /USA dollar index RISES TO 94.05/Euro FALLS TO 1.1743

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO . +.053/ GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 113.48/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD FINALLY IN THE POSITIVE/BANK OF JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR YIELD CURVE AS THEY PURCHASE ALL BONDS TO GET TO ZERO RATE!!

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 57.61  and Brent: 63.16

3f Gold UP/Yen DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.311%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.67% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 1.410%

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 4.50?????????????????????

3k Gold at $1246.50 silver at:15.80: 6 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 12/100 in roubles/dollar) 59.29

3m oil into the 57 dollar handle for WTI and 63 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/China forced to do QE!! as it lowers its yuan value to the dollar/GOT A SMALL SIZED DEVALUATION SOUTHBOUND

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 113.48 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9968 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1707 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to +0.311%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.381% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.7700% /

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)

US Futures, Global Shares, Dollar All Jump On Brexit, Basel News, Averted US Shutdown; Payrolls Loom

 

U.S. equity index futures have bounced on the last day of the week, along with European and Asian shares, oil and the dollar following overnight news that the UK and EU have reached a successful conclusion on Phase 1 of Brexit negotiations, that Congress averted a government shutdown with another can-kicking 2 week measure until December 22, after strong Chinese trade data and an upward revision to Japanese GDP, and ahead of the November nonfarm payrolls data which is expected to cement the December Fed rate hike.

Setting the bullish mood this morning was Christmas coming early for Theresa May, who managed to forge an agreement – if only for the time being – with the EU in the early hours of Friday morning to pave way for phase 2, with talks set to move to trade with support being voiced by Senior Brexiteers, Gove and Johnson. In reaction to this, GBP initially hit a 6-month high, however once the agreement had been confirmed, the pound saw a “buy the rumour sell the news” price action, while gilts were met with selling pressreure with the price making a firm move below 124.00.

Also after the close on Thursday, the House voted 235-193 and Senate voted 81-14 to pass the stopgap spending measure which will avoid a government shutdown and fund government through to Dec. 22nd, kicking the can on and averting a government shutdown for another two weeks.

European stocks advance in a broad rally amid optimism over a newly-struck deal between Britain and the European Union to unlock divorce negotiations and proceed to discussing a future trade deal. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rises 0.7%, with the index heading for a weekly gain of 1.3%. Banks advance the most, up for a second day, as the sector emerged relatively unscathed from global regulators’ final batch of Basel III post-crisis capital ruleswith few lenders needing to raise major new funds. Miners are also among the best indusreptry group performers, following copper prices higher. The FTSE 100 is trailing other European indexes, trading little changed, as the pound climb.

Asia equity markets took the impetus from a positive tone in US where all indices finished higher and tech continued its rebound, while Congress also voted to pass the stop-gap spending bill to fund the government till December 22nd and avert a shutdown. ASX 200 (+0.3%) and Nikkei 225 (+1.4%) were higher in which the latter outperformed as exporters benefitted from a weaker currency and after a stellar upward revision to Q3 GDP figures. Hang Seng (+1.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.6%) were also in the green amid better than expected Chinese trade data, although gains were capped in the mainland after the PBoC refrained from open market operations for a total net weekly drain of CNY 510bln. China’s trade data in a nutshell:

  • Chinese Trade Balance (USD)(Nov) 40.2B vs. Exp. 35.0B (Prev. 38.2B)
  • Chinese Exports (USD)(Nov) Y/Y 12.3% vs. Exp. 5.3% (Prev. 6.9%)
  • Chinese Imports (USD)(Nov) Y/Y 17,7% vs. Exp. 13.0% (Prev. 17.2%)

Finally, 10yr JGBs eked mild gains despite the broad positive risk tone, as prices eyed the 151.00 level and amid the BoJ’s presence in the market for JPY 840bln of government bonds.

The positive moves for many markets will be a welcome reversal for investors, who earlier in the week booked profits amid a stock rotation and waning risk sentiment. With the U.S. debt deadline nudged back, tax reform becoming more likely, and a breakdown of Brexit negotiations averted for now, solid economic data of the kind seen today could give fresh legs to the rally in risk assets.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose a fifth day, its best run in nine months, before the U.S. jobs report (full preview here). The gauge was on track for its best week this year, supported by year-end funding demand. The pound orbited $1.35 as Brexit breakthrough met profit-taking amid thin liquidity. The broader dollar index headed for its best week in 2017 as year-end funding and a report that the U.S. president will release a long-promised infrastructure plan next month supported the greenback.  The euro slipped a sixth day as the yen led losses among G-10 currencies. Gilts slumped, dragging bunds and Treasuries lower, while stocks advanced.

In rates, the yield on 10-year Treasuries rose two basis points to 2.38 percent, the highest in more than a week. Germany’s 10-year yield gained two basis points to 0.31 percent. Britain’s 10-year yield climbed six basis points to 1.318 percent, the highest in more than a week. Japan’s 10-year yield dipped less than one basis point to 0.053 percent.

Meanwhile, oil rose above $57 a barrel in the second day of gains. Gold edged up slightly in Asian trade amid bargain hunting after the yellow metal dropped below its recent trading range to hit the lowest in more than four months overnight. However, prices did fail to make a break above 1250. Copper futures in Shanghai rose after data showed a jump in Chinese imports. WTI and Brent crude futures up modestly, however prices have pulled back from the highs, having met resistance at USD 57 and USD 62.50 respectively.

Today’s data include non-farm payrolls, unemployment, wholesale inventories and U. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment Index. Johnson Outdoors is reporting earnings

Top Headline News from BBG

  • The U.K. and the European Union struck a deal to unlock divorce negotiations, opening the way for talks on what businesses are keenest to nail down — the nature of the post-Brexit future
  • The U.S. Congress sent President Donald Trump a two-week extension of federal funding that averts a government shutdown this week but defers contentious decisions on spending on defense and domestic programs
  • Republican Senator Rob Portman, one of the chief tax writers, said he’s “pretty confident” that GOP lawmakers will be able to set a corporate rate of 20% in their final tax bill — below 22% figure that some lawmakers have sought: Tax Debate Update
  • U.K. factory output rose 0.1% m/m in October, marking six consecutive increases for the first time since modern records began in 1997. Overall industrial production was unchanged as warmer weather reduced energy demand
  • China’s exports unexpectedly jumped as global demand remained firm, while import growth continued to outpace sales abroad
  • China will prevent major risks and effectively control leverage ratio next year, according to a politburo meeting on 2018 economic work, Xinhua reports
  • Wall Street sees muted 2018 credit returns as opportunities expected to narrow
  • With just a few days left until Cboe Global Markets Inc. debuts futures contracts on the cryptocurrency, many banks are still weighing whether to offer them to clients — and if so, how to handle the mechanics
  • Steinhoff Share Price Plunge Nears 90% as Debt Cut to Junk
  • Inside Big Banks, Bitcoin Futures Are Riling Trading Executives
  • Bitcoin Wildness Highlights Worries as Futures Trading Nears

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 2,649.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.8% to 389.67
  • MSCI Asia up 0.6% to 169.02
  • MSCI Asia ex Japan up 0.8% to 549.09
  • Nikkei up 1.4% to 22,811.08
  • Topix up 1% to 1,803.73
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.2% to 28,639.85
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.6% to 3,289.99
  • Sensex up 1% to 33,263.86
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 5,994.37
  • Kospi up 0.08% to 2,464.00
  • German 10Y yield rose 1.9 bps to 0.312%
  • Euro down 0.3% to $1.1736
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 4.8 bps to 1.414%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.0 bps to 1.42%
  • Brent futures up 0.6% to $62.60/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.15% to $1,245.46
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.2% to 94.01

Asia equity markets took the impetus from a positive tone in US where all indices finished higher and tech continued its rebound, while Congress also voted to pass the stop-gap spending bill to fund the government  till December 22nd and avert a shutdown. ASX 200 (+0.3%) and Nikkei 225 (+1.4%) were higher in which the latter outperformed as exporters benefitted from a weaker currency and after a stellar upward revision to Q3 GDP figures. Hang Seng (+1.2%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.6%) were also in the green amid better than expected Chinese trade data, although gains were capped in the mainland after the PBoC refrained from open market operations for a total net weekly drain of CNY 510bln. Finally, 10yr JGBs eked mild gains despite the broad positive risk tone, as prices eyed the 151.00 level and amid the BoJ’s presence in the market for JPY 840bln of government bonds.

Top Asian News

  • PBOC Is Said to Meet With Big Banks on Bond Market Amid Rout
  • The $64 Million Question: Is Goldman Embracing Tiny Asian IPOs?
  • HNA Mystery Charity Begins ‘Difficult’ Job of Valuing Assets
  • ICICI Is Said to Pick Banks for IPO of $3 Billion Brokerage Arm
  • Mysterious Late Drops Stoke Taiwan Dollar Intervention Talk
  • HNA Says It Won’t Default in Coming Years After Yield Surge
  • India Invokes Rarely-Used Measure to Gain Control of Realty Firm

Aside from Brexit, banks across Europe are rallying this morning as reforms to Basel 3 have appeared to be kinder to European banks than had been expected. Alongside this, the rise in EGB yields have further bolstered the strength in banking names. Elsewhere, consumer staples are the only sector in the red with gains otherwise relatively broad-based. Gilts have edged up a handful of ticks in wake of the UK data raft and BoE survey, but not really on anything revealed in the releases. Instead, the 10 year benchmark is consolidating off the lows and deriving some support as the cash yield crosses 1.30%. In fact, Bunds have actually seen more downside in recent trade and since the more bearish Liffe open, with the core German bond extending losses to 48 ticks at one stage before regaining some composure as well. Elsewhere, US Treasuries are sitting tight and also appear to be in pre-NFP idling or biding time mode after yesterday’s declines on the White House funding reprieve. Curve flattening also took a breather, and the next big driver on that front is likely to come from the FOMC rather than BLS report given that a hike is virtually factored in. SEP details will be key and the central views on Fed Funds ahead.

Top European News

  • U.K. Manufacturing on Best Run in Two Decades Amid Car Demand
  • RBS CEO Sees ‘Diminishing’ Chance of DoJ Settlement This Year
  • Boring Is Beautiful as Proved by East Europe’s Currency Winners
  • BaFin Examines Trading of Steinhoff Shares in ‘Routine’ Review
  • Gilts Slide, Pound Strengthens on Breakthrough in Brexit Talks
  • Defiant Merkel Critics Press Her to Consider Minority Rule

In FX, GBP Firmer overall, albeit off best levels seen in the run up to confirmation of an agreement between the UK and EU on the divorce fee, ECJ and Irish border issue that was the outstanding element and bone of contention preventing a deal being done and blocking the passage to phase 2 of Brexit negotiations (ie transition and trade terms). UK production figures (largely in-line) did little to sway prices. USD-index has moved closer to 94.000, and discounting the Pound would almost certainly be above the big figure, with support emanating from the aforementioned Government financing extension, and the next decisive move dependent on the big monthly US jobs report. EUR/USD trading at levels not seen for a while having pivoted 1.1800 in recent sessions and big option expiries at the strike for today now look set to run off untouched. 1.1780-35 marks the boundaries so far, with bids around 1.1750 filled and stops tripped to the lows.

In commodities, old edged up slightly in Asian trade amid bargain hunting after the yellow metal dropped below its recent trading rangeg to hit the lowest in more than four months overnight. However, prices did fail to make a break above 1250. Copper futures in Shanghai rose after data showed a jump in Chinese imports. WTI and Brent crude futures up modestly, however prices have pulled back from the highs, having met resistance at USD 57 and USD 62.50 respectively.

Looking at the day ahead, the November employment report in the US is likely to be the biggest focus. Also due out in the US are October wholesale inventories and the preliminary December University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading. Away from the US, October trade data in Germany and the UK, as well as October industrial production in France and the UK are due.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 195,000, prior 261,000
    • Unemployment Rate, est. 4.1%, prior 4.1%
    • Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.0%
    • Average Hourly Earnings YoY, est. 2.7%, prior 2.4%
    • Underemployment Rate, prior 7.9%
  • 10am: Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. -0.4%, prior -0.4%; Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, est. 0.25%, prior 1.3%
  • 10am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 99, prior 98.5; Current Conditions, est. 114.3, prior 113.5; Expectations, est. 90.5, prior 88.9

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Morning from Geneva. If you suddenly don’t see the EMR for a few days then you’ll know that I’ve been putting my money where my mouth is with regards to the start of the end of fiat money (see our note here from a couple of months ago) and have now made enough money on Bitcoin that I don’t need to work again. At one point yesterday it was up 40% in 40 hours at over $19,000 on one exchange before falling back. It’s a bit of a side show for global markets but fascinating nevertheless. As we discussed in the fiat money note we do believe that there is something tangible in the demand for cryptocurrencies and over the years ahead there may well be more and more desire for alternative mediums of exchange. If and when inflation does take off central banks are unlikely to be able to control it given the need to instead control the excessive debt burden most countries face. So we could end up with a situation where the current crypto surge is one of the biggest bubbles in history but still see a cryptocurrency emerge as a long term success story. Interesting times. For full disclosure I should add that sadly I passed on Bitcoin somewhere in the low 1000s so you’re stuck with me for a while longer. Shame as that would have paid for my new kitchen a few times over and thrown in a full time chef for good measure.

On the menu today is a payroll print that isn’t quite the draw it sometimes is, as the markets’ focal point now is all around inflation. Pretty much everyone assumes job growth is going to be broadly decent so the big story is really about prices and wages. As such, the average hourly earnings number today will attract a decent amount of attention and could be the swing factor. For the record, our US team expects non-farm payrolls to rise 175k (vs. consensus 195k) with an unemployment rate of 4.2% (vs. 4.1%), while we’re in line with the market on average hourly earnings growth of 0.3% mom.

Elsewhere today, this morning may be a key turning point for Brexit talks. Last night, the EU President Tusk informed the media that he will make a press statement on Brexit at 7:50am (6:50am GMT) but did not elaborate more. This is just as this mail will hit inboxes. Overnight, Bloomberg noted UK officials were increasingly confident of a deal on the Irish border, while EU officials expected PM May to be in Brussels this morning by 7am if a deal was sealed overnight. Then at 1:18am London time, PM May’s Chief of Staff tweeted “home for 3 hours of sleep, then back to work” and as we go to print it’s been confirmed that Mrs May will be in Brussels by 7am. So lots to look forward to. Circling back to yesterday, GBPUSD jumped 0.60% after Reuters cited an unnamed Irish official noting that Ireland and Britain are “very close” to a Brexit deal. GBPEUR has traded close to 1.15 this morning having been as low as 1.131 yesterday morning.

Over in the US, a partial government shutdown this Saturday has now been averted. Both the House (235-193) and the Senate (81-14) have voted in favour of extending the government funding for two weeks until 22 December. Senate Majority leader McConnell noted “we want to resolve all of these issues (spending limits) in the next couple of weeks”. Elsewhere, the Senate has also formally named eight Republican lawmakers to be part of the Conference committee to reconcile the House and Senate’s versions of the tax bill. Staying in the US, as I’m sure you’re wading through 2018 outlooks at the moment, it’s worth highlighting that one of the more accurate forecasters for the US equity market in 2017 suggested that he’s holding out for up to 6% US GDP growth. The exact quote was “I see no reason why we don’t go to 4, 5, even 6 percent,”. The forecaster in question was Mr Trump who said this to reporters at a cabinet meeting on Wednesday. I missed this story yesterday but it’s a fun one to look back on. Last time we saw growth with a 6-handle was 1984!

This morning in Asia, the final reading of Japan’s 3Q GDP was above market at 0.6% qoq (vs. 0.4% expected) and 2.5% yoy (vs. 1.5% expected). Markets have follomowed the positive lead from the US and are trading higher, with the Nikkei (+1.34%), Hang Seng (+0.96%), China’s CSI 300 (+0.70%) and Kospi (+0.01%) all up as we type. Elsewhere, China’s November exports and imports were both above expectations, leading to a higher trade surplus of $40.2bn (vs. $35bn expected).

Now recapping markets performance from yesterday. US equities were all higher with gains supported by tech stocks and improved sentiment with regards to the tax bill. The S&P was up (+0.29%) for the first time in four days, while the Dow (+0.29%) and Nasdaq (+0.54%) also advanced. Within the S&P, gains were led by the industrials and tech sectors, with only consumer staples and telco stocks modestly in the red. European markets were a bit mixed, with the Stoxx 600 virtually flat (+0.02%) while the FTSE fell -0.37%, impacted by higher terling. Elsewhere, the DAX (+0.36%) and CAC (+0.18%) both rose and the VIX dropped 7.8% to 10.16.

Government bond were also mixed, with 10yr UST 10y and Gilts rising c2.5bp, partly impacted by news that President Trump is planning to release his infrastructure plans in early January and the aforementioned Brexit developments. Other core bond yields were broadly flat (Bunds and OATs -0.2bp). Peripherals outperformed with yields down 3-6bp, partly supported by the prospect of lower supply until year end.

Turning to currencies, the US dollar index firmed (0.2%) for the fifth consecutive day, while the Euro and AUD fell 0.19% and 0.70% respectively, with the latter down to a six month low following weaker trade balance and 3Q GDP stats over the past two days. In commodities, WTI oil was up 1.30% while Gold fell 1.28% to the lowest in four months. Elsewhere, other base metals continue to soften (Copper -0.02%; Zinc -0.22%; Aluminium -0.21%).

Away from the market and onto banks and capital levels. The Basel committee has announced a package of Basel 3 reforms (aka Basel 4) and confirmed a floor limit of 72.5% which seeks to limit the reduction in capital requirements available to banks using their own capital models relative to those using the standardised approach. Overall, the EBA noted “the reforms have a limited aggregate impact on regulatory capital ratios”, with the agreement to reduce the weighted average core tier 1 ratio of EU banks by c0.6ppt relative to the status quo. For a detailed analysis of the impact on individual banks, refer to our colleagues’ note.

Over in Germany, at the SPD party conference, a majority of members voted for a resolution to allow its leader Mr Schulz to engage in coalition talks with Ms Merkel’s CSU/CDU bloc, but it’s unclear whether the talks relate to forming a potential grand coalition or a minority led government. Schulz noted “we don’t have to govern at any price, but we also can’t reject governing at any price”. Elsewhere, he posed the question of “why don’t we work to make a United States of Europe a reality by 2025 at the latest?” Bloomberg noted that Ms Merkel declined to endorse his proposal later on.

Finally, DB’s FX team has published a report showing how tax reform would help fix the extremely large distortions on the US balance of payments (BOP). They calculate that the proposed changes could halve the US trade deficit, an improvement of $250bn. The change would merely be an accounting shift in BOP reporting, which could happen quickly, without any disruptions to global trade. Further, these changes to the US BOP would meet the goals of the Trump administration in reducing the trade deficit and reversing US investment abroad. It is a “low-hanging fruit” because it would result from changing the anomalous ways in which US corporates currently account for their global earnings. Finally they make the point that this statistical improvement would be politically valuable ahead of the next presidential election and could reduce the pressure on the administration to resort to outright protectionist measures to improve the trade balance. Refer to their note for more details.

Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the Fed reported that household net wealth grew to US$1.74trn in 3Q, which lifted the ratio of wealth to disposable income to a new high of 6.73x. Further, firms are now sitting on liquid assets of US $2.4trn, which is also at a fresh high. Elsewhere, the October consumer credit was above expectations at US$20.5bn (vs. $17bn expected), while the weekly initial jobless claims (236k vs. 240k expected) and continuing claims (1,908k vs. 1,919k expected) were broadly in line.

In Europe, the final reading of the Eurozone’s 3Q GDP was unrevised at 0.6% qoq, but prior revisions saw annual growth revised up 0.1ppt to 2.6% yoy. In Germany, the October IP was below market at -1.4% mom (vs. 0.9% expected) and 2.7% yoy (vs. 4.3% expected). Note that according to the Economy Ministry, output was impacted by workers taking extra vacation days during the month. In the UK, the November Halifax house price index was above expectations at 0.5% mom (vs. 0.2% expected), but earlier revisions meant annual growth was in line at 3.9% yoy. Finally, Italy’s 3Q unemployment rate was in line at 11.2%.

Looking at the day ahead, the November employment report in the US is likely to be the biggest focus. Also due out in the US are October wholesale inventories and the preliminary December University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading. Away from the US, October trade data in Germany and the UK, as well as October industrial production in France and the UK are due.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late THURSDAY night/FRIDAY morning: Shanghai closed UP 17.93 points or .53% /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 336.66 pts or 1.19% / The Nikkei closed UP 313.05 POINTS OR 1.39%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.53%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.6213/Oil UP to 57.64 dollars per barrel for WTI and 63.16 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN. ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.6213. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST  THE ONSHORE YUAN AT 6.6271 //ONSHORE YUAN WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR/OFF SHORE WEAKER TO THE DOLLAR/. THE DOLLAR (INDEX) IS  STRONGER AGAINST ALL MAJOR CURRENCIES. CHINA IS NOT HAPPY TODAY.

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

NORTH KOREA/South Korea/Russia

3 b  JAPAN

c) REPORT ON CHINA

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

The UK and the EU reach an agreement with respect to citizens of UK in the EU and visa versa. However the Irish border questions still linger

(courtesy zerohedge)

UK And EU Reach Agreement Taking Brexit Talks To “Phase 2” As Irish Border Questions Linger

Early on Friday morning, the EU and UK negotiated a deal allowing Brexit negotiations to move on to the “Phase 2”, which will establish their future trading relationship.

The European Commission said it recommends to the European Council to conclude that sufficient progress has been made in the first phase of the Article 50 negotiations with the U.K. The European Council will announce its decision on 15 December 2017. If approved, talks can proceed to second phase. Diplomats from both sides worked into the night to resolve the Irish border issue – although questions remain whether it’s really fully resolved. UK Prime Minister, Theresa May, and Brexit secretary, David Davis, travelled to the Berlaymont building, the headquarters of the European Commission in Brussels, early on Friday morning to conclude the agreement with EU President, Jean Claude Juncker, and the EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier.

Juncker and May subsequently hosted a press conference announcing the breakthrough. In a sign that a deal had been reached Martyn Selmayr, Juncker’s head of cabinet, had earlier tweeted a photograph of white smoke emerging from the chimney of the Sistine Chapel, the signal that the Vatican has successfully chosen a new Pope.

News of the deal led to an immediate spike in Sterling which however faded almost as quickly. Bloomberg reports.

(The) Pound erased earlier gains as investors took profits after U.K. and EU struck a deal to move forward on Brexit negotiations, shifting focus to more difficult trade talks, Mizuho Bank says. “The more important issue is the trade talks which are more difficult, so it’s understandable the pound has been sold on the fact of a breakthrough which has been talked about for the last few days,” says Daisuke Karakama, chief market economist in Tokyo. “There’s political uncertainty over the U.K.’s decision on whether to retain access to the single market or not, and this fluid political situation doesn’t warrant pound buying. I think the pound has seen a peak”.

The major delay in reaching agreement had been the question of the future border arrangements between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, which has been propping up May’s government in Parliament, had demanded a “soft” (basically open) border with its southern neighbour. However, no details were provided during the press conference and the DUP noted this morning that more work is needed (see below).

According to the Financial Times.

Britain reached a historic deal on its EU exit terms on Friday, enshrining special rights for 4m citizens and paying €40bn-€60bn in a hard-fought Brexit divorce settlement that clears the way for trade talks next year. Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker, the European Commission president, met early on Friday to sign off a 15-page “progress report” that will allow EU negotiators to recommend opening a second phase of talks on post-Brexit relations. Shortly after the breakfast started, Mr Juncker’s chief of staff Martin Selmayr tweeted pictures of white smoke rising from a chimney stack, indicating the deal was done. The final breakthrough on Northern Ireland’s border came after a week of high drama in Brussels and Westminster, with agreed compromises scuttled on Monday by the Democratic Unionist party, Mrs May’s parliamentary allies.

The prime minister’s decision to seal the agreement on Friday marked the finale of a three-week diplomatic effort to finalise the most contentious divorce terms. EU leaders will formally decide at a summit next week whether it represents “sufficient progress” to start the second phase of negotiations. Mrs May is to meet Donald Tusk, the European Council president, later in the morning. In a move intended to show an immediate EU response to Britain’s offer, Mr Tusk intends to release draft negotiating guidelines this morning that set EU priorities for the next phase, including in trade and a post-Brexit transition negotiations.

During the press conference, Juncker commented that “Both sides had to listen to each other, adjust their position and show a willingness to compromise…This was a difficult negotiation for the European Union as well as for the United Kingdom.” In an uncharacteristic gesture of goodwill, Juncker stated “We can now start looking towards the future – a future in which the UK will be a close ally.”

May remarked that securing the deal had “required give and take on both sides”, but she now looked forward to a “positive and ambitious future relationship” and the settlement was “fair to the British taxpayer”. Nonetheless, most British taxpayers will not view a 40-60 billion euro payment to the EU as fair, since the settlement is closer to the opening demands of the EU. May also stated that she will be writing a letter to the people of Norther Ireland and was pleased  that the rights of 3 million EU citizens in the UK and 1 million UK citizens in the EU had been secured.

While today’s agreement is a step forward in the Brexit process, hurdles remain. Last night, DUP leader, Arlene Foster, told Sky News that she had secured “six substantive changes” to the text on the Irish border. However, it’s become apparent that Foster has only given a cautious approval to the deal, noting that there is still work to be done on regulatory alignment and that the initial agreement could “pre-judge” the outcome of political discussions within the UK. In a statement she noted.

We cautioned the Prime Minister about proceeding with this agreement in its present form given the issues which still need to be resolved and the views expressed to us by many of her own party colleagues. However, it was ultimately a matter for the Prime Minister to decide how she chose to proceed.

If the Irish border question can be fully resolved, the negotiations on the future trade relationship could be difficult and prolonged. Responding to the news, Nigel Farage, the high-profile former leader of the UK independence party, stated “The deal is not acceptable”. According to Marc Ostwald, global strategist at ADM ISI in London.

The question now is whether the hard Brexiteers decide to unseat Mrs May.

Readers can peruse the full 7000-page report outlining the Ireland agreement, rights of EU citizens in the UK and the controversial Brexit divorce bill in its entirety at the following link.

 end
the pound does not react well to the news as the full BREXIT complexity remains
(courtesy zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Israel

Hamas fired 7 rockets into Israel.  All rocket fire was knocked down by their defense shield

(courtesy zerohedge)

Hamas-Linked Group Takes Credit For Rockets Fired On Israel After Trump Speech

On Thursday, the Palestinian armed group al-Nasser Salah al-Deen Brigades announced in an official statement that its fighters fired several rockets from Gaza strip targeting Israeli settlements north of it. The statement was released by al-Nasser Salah al-Deen news agency “al-Buraq” and the armed group stressed that this is only the first response to Trump’s decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and warned that more will follow.


A volley or rockets was fired out of Gaza on Thursday in response to Trump’s controversial Jerusalem announcement.

Meanwhile, the region continues to be on edge with widespread protests breaking out Thursday in response to Trump’s Wednesday afternoon speech formally recognizing Jerusalem as the Israeli capital, and included plans to move the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. Many of these protests spiraled into violent confrontations at various locations across Israel and the Palestinian territories, including clashes between Arab protesters and Israeli soldiers in Ramallah and other places in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Protests frequently featured the burning of the American and Israeli flags as well as images of President Trump.

During the evening Thursday (local time), the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed the volley of rockets from the Gaza Strip, issuing a statement through the official IDF Twitter account, while also stating that the Israeli Army responded to the attack. “A short while ago, a projectile was fired from northern Gaza & exploded in southern Israel. In response to that fire & the projectiles fired at Israel throughout the day that fell short in Gaza, an IDF tank & an IAF aircraft targeted two terror posts in Gaza” the message stated.

Following the sirens that were sounded in Hof Ashkelon & Sha’ar HaNegev regional councils in southern Israel earlier this evening, 2 launches from Gaza towards Israel landed within the Gaza Strip

The IDF followed the message with a warning that it would hold Hamas directly responsible for all “hostile activity” and threats coming from Gaza: “The IDF holds Hamas responsible for the hostile activity perpetrated against Israel from the Gaza Strip.”

The Al-Nasser Salah al-Deen Brigades rocket attack was likely coordinated with the Hamas Movement as the al-Nasser Brigades are one of the main allies of Hamas in the Gaza Strip.


The Gaza based Al-Nasser Salah al-Deen Brigades took credit for the Thursday rocket attack on southern Israel.

Local sources from the Gaza Strip reported that Israeli warplanes are currently highly active over Gaza right now. The sources added that warplanes were seen dropping flares for unknown reasons.

The Israeli Army will likely respond to the Gaza rocket attack in the upcoming hours or overnight; however, unlike previous sporadic exchanges of fire, things are likely to escalate to a dangerous level due to the ongoing Jerusalem crisis.

The Israeli Army confirmed that at least two rockets targeted the settlements of  Ashkelon and Sha’ar HaNegev north of Gaza Strip in southern Israel. Several Israel sources claimed that the Israeli anti-rocket system “Iron Dome” successfully intersected the rockets; however, the Israeli Army did not confirm these claims and there were no reports of casualties from the rocket strikes.

Previous to Trump’s announcement, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and Jordan’s King Abdullah II had warned the president that the announcement would have “dangerous” repercussions for regional stability. Separately, the Palestinian delegate to the United Kingdom said on Wednesday that President Trump’s move to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel signals “a declaration of war” in the region. “He is declaring war in the Middle East, he is declaring war against 1.5 billion Muslims, hundreds of millions of Christians that are not going to accept the holy shrines to be totally under the hegemony of Israel,” Manuel Hassassian told BBC 4 Radio’s “Today.”

The Palestinians seek east Jerusalem as the capital of a future independent state and fear that Trump’s declaration essentially imposes on them a disastrous solution for one of the core issues in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. “There is no way that there can be talks with the Americans. The peace process is finished. They have already pre-empted the outcome,” said Palestinian official Hanan Ashrawi. “They cannot take us for granted.” The U.S. decision “destroys the peace process,” added Palestinian Prime Minister Rami Hamdallah.

As anger builds among Palestinians and within the broader Arab world, some observers fear that a third intifada could be imminent – this after Hamas leader ISmail Haniyeh called for a new Palestinian intifada, or uprising early on Thursday.

END

Iraq/Israel/USA

Now the Shiite Iraq militia weighs in and states that the Trump recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel is a “legitimate reason” to attack Americans:

(courtesy zerohedge)

Iraqi Militia Says Trump’s Recognition Of Jerusalem Is A “Legitimate Reason” To Attack Americans

In the latest sign that Trump’s decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s true capital has put American lives at risk, Russia Today is reporting that Shia paramilitary group Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba has declared that the US’s violation of the holy land status quo is a “legitimate reason” to attack American troops in Iraq.

“Trump’s stupid decision… will be the big spark for removing this entity [Israel] from the body of the Islamic nation, and a legitimate reason to target American forces,” said Akram al-Kaabi, the Iraqi organization’s leader, as cited by Reuters.

Of course, militia leaders aren’t the only ones speaking out against Trump’s decision. Heads of state and other senior officials in the governments of Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and – of course – the Palestinian territories have denounced the declaration. Meanwhile, the embassy’s impending move to Jerusalem will probably only further infuriate much of the Muslim world. One Palestinian official said Trump’s declaration has effectively precluded the possibility of a two-state solution.

The Israelis claim all of Jerusalem as their capital, while the Palestinians hope to make east Jerusalem the capital of a future Palestinian state.

According to the latest update from the US Defense Department, there are 5,200 US troops in Iraq, mostly special forces “advisers”. Officially, the Iraq War “ended” in December 2011, when the military pulled the last US ground troops out of the country.

Al Nujaba, a militia group mostly made up of Iraqis, has about 10,000 fighters, according to ReutersBeing a part of the Iran-backed Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), the group is believed to be one of the most important militias in Iraq.

In November, Ted Poe from the US House of Representatives proposed imposing “terrorism-related sanctions” on Nujaba. The text of the document says Nujaba is “an affiliated faction” of the US-designated foreign terrorist organization Kata’ib Hezbollah, which also fights with the PMF.

And there’s good reason to believe the group will follow through on its threats.

Nujaba’s leader Akram al-Kaabi was earlier sanctioned by the Treasury Department “for threatening the peace and stability of Iraq.” As a former insurgent, it’s believed Kaabi took part in “multiple mortar and rocket attacks” on the Green Zone in Baghdad in 2008.

Shortly before making his announcement, Trump acknowledged that the move would cause dissent, but he also insisted it would help solve the Arab-Israeli conflict.

A number of world powers, including Germany, Turkey, and Russia, expressed grave concern over the Trump administration’s decision.

US decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital may become a “legitimate reason” to attack American troops in Iraq.

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 am

Euro/USA 1.1743 DOWN .0029/ REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ SPAIN VS CATALONIA/REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:/TRUMP HEALTH CARE DEFEAT//ITALIAN REFERENDUM DEFEAT/AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/ /USA FALLING INTEREST RATES AGAIN/HOUSTON FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES  ALL IN THE GREEN 

USA/JAPAN YEN 113.48 UP 0.28(Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/SIGNALS U TURN WITH INCREASED NEGATIVITY IN NIRP/JAPAN OUT OF WEAPONS TO FIGHT ECONOMIC DISASTER/

GBP/USA 1.3431 DOWN .0050 (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED

THERESA MAY FORMS A NEW GOVERNMENT/STARTS BREXIT TALKS/MAY IN TROUBLE WITH HER OWN PARTY/

USA/CAN 1.2836 DOWN .0020(CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA)

Early THIS FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 29 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1743; / Last night the Shanghai composite CLOSED DOWN 21.91 POINTS OR .67% / Hang Sang CLOSED UP 336.66 POINTS OR 1.39% /AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.53% / EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED GREEN

The NIKKEI: this FRIDAY morning CLOSED UP 313.08 POINTS OR 1.39%

Trading from Europe and Asia:
1. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / : Hang Sang CLOSED UP 336.66 POINTS OR 1.19% / SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 17.93 POINTS OR .55% /Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.53% /Nikkei (Japan)CLOSED UP 313.05 POINTS OR 1.39%

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1248.00

silver:$15.84

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.381% !!! UP 3 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY night in basis points and it is trading JUST BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)

The 30 yr bond yield 2.777 UP 2 IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 94.05 UP 26 CENT(S) from THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

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And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS \1 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.806% DOWN 1 in basis point(s) yield from THURSDAY

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.054% UP 2/5  in basis point yield from THURSDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.401% DOWN 1  IN basis point yield from THURSDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.651 DOWN 2 POINTS in basis point yield from THURSDAY

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 24 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: +.307%  up 2 IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY

END

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IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1764 DOWN.0009 (Euro DOWN 09 Basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/

USA/Japan: 113.52 UP 0.319(Yen DOWN 32 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3383 DOWN 0.0099( POUND DOWN 99 BASIS POINTS)

USA/Canada 1.2866 UP  .0009 Canadian dollar DOWN 9 Basis points AS OIL ROSE TO $57.31

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This afternoon, the Euro was DOWN 9 to trade at 1.1764

The Yen fell to 113.52 for a LOSS of 32 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE

The POUND FELL BY 99 basis points, trading at 1.3383/

The Canadian dollar FELL by 9 basis points to 1.2866/ WITH WTI OIL RISING TO : $57.31

The USA/Yuan closed AT 6.209
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.053% DOWN 2/5  IN BASIS POINTS / yield/
Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 4 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 2.377% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.7774 UP 5  in basis points on the day /

Your closing USA dollar index, 93.93 UP 14 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/BREAKS RESISTANCE OF 92.00

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 1:00 PM EST

London: CLOSED DOWN 73.21 POINTS OR 1.00%
German Dax :CLOSED UP 108,55 POINTS OR 0.83%
Paris Cac CLOSED UP 15.23 POINTS OR 0.28%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 58.50 POINTS OR 0.57%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 314.20 POINTS OR 0.57%

The Dow closed UP 117.68 POINTS OR 0.49%

NASDAQ WAS closed UP 27.24 Points OR 0.40% 4.00 PM EST

WTI Oil price; 57.31 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 63.23 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE CROSS: 59.28 DOWN 11/100 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 3 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES TO +.307% FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:30 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:$57.32

BRENT: $63.30

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.376% (ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 2.70% BLOWS UP THE GLOBE)

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.7766%

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1766 DOWN .0006

USA/JAPANESE YEN:113.51 up 0.291

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 93.90 UP 11 cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.3404 : down 77 POINTS FROM LAST NIGHT

Canadian dollar: 1.2854 up 2 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: +0.307%

END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

Precious Metals Pounded As Bitcoin Soars To Best Week Since 2013

Could be worse, you could be short Bitcoin this week…

Nasdaq closed lower for the 2nd week in a row – the first such consecutive loss since August…

Retailers were squeezed to the best gains on the week, financials rallied solidly but Tech fall back to unch…

Gold tumbled 2.5% this week (biggest weekly drop in 7 months) as Bitcoin soared 40% (its best weekly gain since Dec 2013)

FANG Stocks rose on the week with an opening bid every day…

High Tax stocks outperformed low tax…

Treasury yields rose marginally on the week..

But 30Y ended practically unchanged…

And the yield curve ended flatter on the week…

The Dollar index rose all five days this week, the first 5 day win streak since March…

The biggest drivers of dollar strength were the commodity currencies (Aussie and Loonie)…

Copper and Silver were joint worst performers in the commodity-space as Crude rebounded today but ended lower on the week…

Silver is now underwater for the year…

Finally as Bitcoin slipped today, Ethereum outperformed…

For those keeping track, this is how long it has taken Bitcoin to cross the key psychological levels:

  • $0000 – $1000: 1789 days
  • $1000- $2000: 1271 days
  • $2000- $3000: 23 days
  • $3000- $4000: 62 days
  • $4000- $5000: 61 days
  • $5000- $6000: 8 days
  • $6000- $7000: 13 days
  • $7000- $8000: 14 days
  • $8000- $9000: 9 days
  • $9000-$10000: 2 days
  • $10000-$11000: 1 day
  • $11000-$12000: 6 days
  • $12000-$13000: 17 hours
  • $13000-$14000: 4 hours
  • $14000-$15000: 10 hours
  • $15000-$16000: 5 hours
  • $16000-$17000: 2 hours
  • $17000-$18000: 10 minutes
  • $18000-$19000: 3 minutes
  • $19,000-$15,000: 24 hours

end

the street is catching on:  November payrolls jump by 228,000 but the most important aspect of the report is wage growth and again it disappoints

(courtesy zerohedge)

November Payrolls Jump 228K, Beat Expectations But Wage Growth Disappoints

In a continuation of the recent theme shown by the labor market, the BLS reported that November payrolls rose by a seasonally adjusted 228K, beating expectations of 200K, if lower than October’s downward revised 244K (from 261K) while September was revised up from +18,000  to +38,000. With these revisions, employment gains in September and October combined were 3,000 more than  previously reported.

There were few surprises in the report, which saw the labor force participation rate flat at 62.7%, near a 30+ year low, while the unemployment rate also remained unchanged at 4.1%, the lowest since Dec 2000.

And while overall the labor report was strong, there was once again disappointment in wage growth, with average hourly earnings rising 0.2% m/m, below the consensus estimate of est. 0.3%, with the October number revised lower to -0.1%. The Year over year number also missed, printing at 2.5%, up from October’s 2.3% but below the consensus print of 2.7%.

Some further details:

  • Nonfarm private payrolls rose 221k vs prior 247k; est. 195k, range 155k-250k from 31 economists surveyed
  • Manufacturing payrolls rose 31k after rising 23k in the prior month; economists estimated 15k, range 10k to 35k from 19 economists surveyed
  • Underemployment rate 8% vs prior 7.9%
  • Change in household employment 57k vs prior -484k

Wall Street’s reactions focused on the upside in the headline print, while noting the miss in hourly earnings.

SEAN LYNCH, CO-HEAD OF GLOBAL EQUITY STRATEGY, WELLS FARGO INVESTMENT INSTITUTE, OMAHA, NEBRASKA:

”Definitely a little bit of a surprise to the upside. The markets are holding on to the early gains that futures were pointing, that maybe says we are closer to a 200,000 jobs number than 150,000, you know we’ve had messy jobs numbers the past couple of months so this confirms a pretty good labor market.

”It should be taken a pretty good sign there wasn’t a snapback because of the hurricanes or anything like that, revisions were up just modestly, too.

”(Wages) were kind of right in line with expectations – 0.2 percent versus 0.3 percent, year over year we are at 2.5 percent so pretty good wage gains but nothing that starts to worry people  about inflation. That is the key thing we watch next year as equity investors.

“Unless there was just a total outlier in the number, we have the (Fed) raise coming this month and then we are in line with what the futures market is telling us and that is two for next year. The interesting thing following this data is do they start pricing in another hike because it’s a pretty strong number and as Powell gets his footing do we see the odds of another increase materialize. I’d watch financial today, it will be interesting to see how they do. They have had a strong couple of weeks, we get a strong jobs number here, do you see financials continue to gain strength in this market if it looks like the Fed may be more apt to raise rates here.”

PHIL ORLANDO, CHIEF EQUITY STRATEGIST AT FEDERATED INVESTORS IN NEW YORK:

”The market’s going to react fine, this was a perfect number. This was a fairway number; we’re right down the middle of the fairway. When you look at the negative revision last month, that balances out the significant beat this morning. The manufacturing number was excellent, we picked up a tick in the hours worked, that’s huge. Wage growth is moving solidly higher, but not excessively so.

”I don’t see anything wrong with this number. I don’t see any reason the market would turn on this number.”

* * *

And some additional details from the report:

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 228,000 in November. Employment continued to  trend up in professional and business services, manufacturing, and health care. Employment  growth has averaged 174,000 per month thus far this year, compared with an average monthly  gain of 187,000 in 2016.

Employment in professional and business services continued on an upward trend in November  (+46,000). Over the past 12 months, the industry has added 548,000 jobs.

In November, manufacturing added 31,000 jobs. Within the industry, employment rose in  machinery (+8,000), fabricated metal products (+7,000), computer and electronic products  (+4,000), and plastics and rubber products (+4,000). Since a recent low in November 2016,  manufacturing employment has increased by 189,000.

Health care added 30,000 jobs in November. Most of the gain occurred in ambulatory health  care services (+25,000), which includes offices of physicians and outpatient care centers.  Monthly employment growth in health care has averaged 24,000 thus far in 2017, compared  with an average increase of 32,000 per month in 2016.

Within construction, employment among specialty trade contractors increased by 23,000 in  November and by 132,000 over the year.

Employment in other major industries, including mining, wholesale trade, retail trade,  transportation and warehousing, information, financial activities, leisure and hospitality, and government, changed little over the month.

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 0.1 hour to 34.5 hours in November. In manufacturing, the workweek was unchanged at 40.9 hours, and overtime remained at 3.5 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 33.7 hours.

In November, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 5 cents to $26.55. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 64 cents, or 2.5 percent. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory  employees rose by 5 cents to $22.24 in November.

end

Strange!! with average hourly growing by only .2% one would expect that the bulk of the jobs came from the minimum wage sector.  From the data this is not true as most came from the white collar/professional side of things

(courtesy zerohedge)

Where The Jobs Were In November: Who’s Hiring… Who Isn’t

Assuming that the BLS’ estimate of avg hourly warnings growing only 0.2% in November is accurate, it would imply that – as has often been the case – the bulk of job growth in November took place in minimum-paying and other low-wage jobs. However, a breakdown of jobs added by industry shows the contrary to expectations, the bulk of new job creation, and 3 of the 4 top category, were not in the “low wage” bucket. In fact, as shown below, with the exception of Education and Health jobs which rose by 54K in November, Manufacturing (+31K), Professional and Business Services (+27), and Construction (+24) were the fastest growing occupations in the previous month.

Furthermore, according to Southbay Research hurricanes boosted the number:

  • Specialty Trade Construction (+23k) – this is the sector that handles the interiors, electricals, and so forth
  • Food Services (+21k)

On the negative side, consumer spending does not appear to be driving much hiring

  • Retail (+19K)
  • Temp workers (+18K)
  • Leisure & Hospitality (+14K) and that includes a hurricane boost

Additionally, white collar hiring was up strongly (Technical services +23K) and Healthcare (+40K). Meanwhile, as SouthBay cautions, small business hiring doesn’t seem to be materializing.  This could be less demand (NFIB, JOLT and other surveys point to strong hiring desire) and more about supply.  If so, that’s inflationary.

Finally, as Bloomberg shows, below are the industries with the highest and lowest rates of employment growth for the most recent month: monthly growth rates are shown for the prior year.

end

Trump slams the behaviour of Wells Fargo.  Just wait until he finds out that all the major banksters have caused the USA to lose of all its gold

(courtesy zerohedge)

Investors ‘Buy The Dip’ After Trump Slams Wells Fargo’s “Bad Acts”

In an out-of-the-blue tweet perhaps aimed at reassuring his base that his not ‘with the banks’, President Trump took aim at Wells Fargo this morning…

Fines and penalties against Wells Fargo Bank for their bad acts against their customers and others will not be dropped, as has incorrectly been reported, but will be pursued and, if anything, substantially increased. I will cut Regs but make penalties severe when caught cheating!

And while the initial reaction was modest, the volume is very heavy…

But it did not take long for dip-buying algos to emerge…

Is Trump trying to make nice with Pocahantas after all?

end

Soft data University of Michigan Consumer Confidence index tumbles in November

(courtesy zerohedge)

As Stocks Soar To Record High, Americans’ Consumer Confidence Tumbles In November

Despite soaring stock market values and an endless array of postive survey data from various estabishment-based entities, University of Michigan confidence tumbled in November.

Consumer sentiment in the U.S. cooled for a second month. While current conditions managed to improve, expectations for the future slumped…

“Perhaps the most important changes in early December were higher income expectations as well as a higher expected inflation rate in the year-ahead,” Richard Curtin, director of the University of Michigan consumer survey, said in a statement.

“The rise in inflation expectations in early December was a surprise, and confidence in this finding must await confirmation in the months ahead before any inferences are drawn.”

Devastation!!

(courtesy zerohedge)

“It Was Like A War Zone” – Heavy Winds Push Wildfires Toward San Diego As Bel Air Burns

Images of charred palm trees and the burnt-out husks of multi-million-dollar homes flooded social media for a fifth day Friday as the SoCal wildfires that exploded into life at the beginning of the week showed no signs of slowing.

Instead, some of the largest fires have entered the heart of Los Angeles – America’s second largest city – and are menacing some of the most expensive homes in the country.

To date, six large wildfires have scorched 141,000 acres in the state, with the flames spreading as far south as San Diego, Cal Fire officials said. At least 5,700 firefighters from several agencies and at least nine states are working to contain the massive walls of flames. The fires have forced 190,000 people out of their homes in a hurry. Many took only their pets and a few choice mementos.

The Skirball fire that’s terrorizing Bel Air isn’t nearly as large as some of the other fires raging in Ventura and LA counties, but it has had an outsize impact in terms of cost. Two days ago, local media reported that the fire had torched a mansion owned by media mogul Rupert Murdoch. Though Murdoch later clarified that the property was (mostly) intact, other homes in the area are at risk of being reduced to cinders.

So far, the fire has damaged many homes in the hills of Bel Air, Los Angeles’ most expensive neighborhood according to Zillow. At least six of those, which Zillow estimates to be worth around $20 million, were completely destroyed on Wednesday.

According to the Wall Street Journal, about 1,700 homes were in mandatory evacuation zones from the Skirball Fire. The company estimates the homes’ values totaled $6.4 billion, where the median home value is just under $3 million.

Beyond Bel Air, there are 86,242 homes in Ventura and Los Angeles counties that are at “some level of risk” from the Thomas, Rye and Creek Wildfires, according to CoreLogic. The combined reconstruction cost value of these properties is $27.7 billion – nearly triple the $10 billion in damages caused by the NorCal fires.

In Ventura County alone, 14,300 homes valued at a total of $10.4 billion were in mandatory evacuation zones, according to Zillow.

Just like with the fires that devastated California’s wine country two months ago, the powerful Santa Ana winds have exacerbated the devastation. After a brief lull on Tuesday, the winds picked back up again Wednesday. And though they’re expected to taper off again – albeit briefly – late Friday, winds of up to 80 mph are expected to continue through Sunday, making it difficult for firefighters to tame the blazes.

“We are in the beginning of a protracted wind event,” Ken Pimlott, the director of the California department of forestry and fire protection, told the Los Angeles Times. “There will be no ability to fight fire in these kinds of winds.”

All together, the four fires in Southern California – possibly the most destructive in the state’s history – have scorched more than 116,000 acres so far, and despite the round-the-clock work of thousands of firefighters since Tuesday, they are still burning ferociously with little to no containment. For example, the Thomas fire northwest of Ventura is barely 5% contained.

All around the region, people encountered nightmarish conditions as flames seemed to come from everywhere. Patricia Hampton, 48, said she and her boyfriend woke up at her house in Ventura on Tuesday night to the sound of helicopters. Outside, the ground was covered in ash, the air so smoky it was hard to breathe as they hopped on bicycles and tried to flee, according to the Washington Post.

“We didn’t know what had happened. We rode down into town trying to make sense of what we were seeing — police everywhere, firetrucks, helicopters,” she said at a temporary shelter at the Ventura County Fairgrounds. “It was like a war zone. You could hear transformers blowing up.”

Authorities are warning residents in nearby communities to prepare to evacuate, even if they aren’t directly impacted by the fire. Residents should be ready to evacuate even if they don’t live in areas immediately affected by flames, Cal Fire Division Chief Nick Schuler said Thursday night. Families should have an escape plan ready to go just in case, he said.

https://www.instagram.com/p/BcYIeAYgHyx/embed/captioned/?cr=1&v=7&wp=658#%7B%22ci%22%3A0%2C%22os%22%3A3319.9950000000003%7D

“They need to prepare as if they will be impacted. Where are they gonna go? What are their escape routes? What is their communication to their families?” he said.

Adding to the devastation in the region, the Lilac Fire in San Diego County started Thursday and grew to 4,100 acres in a few hours, leading to new evacuation orders. Evacuation centers have been set up in affected areas.

The Lilac Fire has left three people with burn injuries and two firefighters hurt. One firefighter suffered smoke inhalation while the second one had a dislocated shoulder. The latter popped it back into place and continued working, Schuler said. According to CNN, school boards have shut down schools spanning at least 16 districts.

Gov. Jerry Brown issued an emergency proclamation for Santa Barbara and San Diego counties. The declarations free state resources such as the National Guard to support response efforts. He’s also requested federal assistance to supplement state and local emergency response.

Per CNN, here’s a quick summary of the six largest fires.

  • Thomas Fire: The largest of the six blazes started Monday in Ventura County, and has scorched 115,000 acres. It’s only 5% contained, and has destroyed at least 150 homes and threatening thousands more in Ventura, about 50 miles (80 km) north-west of Los Angeles.
  • Creek Fire: The second-largest fire is in neighboring Los Angeles County, and ignited a day later. It has burned 15,323 acres and is 20% contained.
  • Rye Fire: It broke out Tuesday in Los Angeles County and has burned 7,000 acres. Firefighters are making progress, with 25% of the blaze contained.
  • Lilac Fire: This fast-moving fire erupted Thursday in San Diego County, and has consumed 4,100 acres in just a few hours. It’s unclear what percentage of it is contained.
  • Skirball Fire: It started Wednesday as a brush fire in Los Angeles County, and is now 30% contained.
  • Liberty Fire: The blaze in Riverside County has burned 300 acres since it ignited Thursday. It’s 5% contained.

While no deaths have been reported so far as a direct result of the flames, three residents have been burned while trying to flee. And one woman was found dead after a car crash in an area under an evacuation order, the authorities said on Thursday, according to the GuardianWith 2017 on track to be the most destructive year for wildfires in California history, experts are warning that this could be the new status quo, given dry conditions across the state.

The Santa Ana winds are an entirely natural phenomenon of course, and they usually peak during the month of December. What is unusual is that wildfires peak during the autumn period. But because of the ongoing drought across California and the very dry weather during October and November, the conditions have been ripe for the wildfire outbreak we are now witnessing.

The current weather pattern is consistent with what climatologists refer to as the ‘Ridiculously Resilient Ridge’ which has become more prevalent in recent years. This results in cold weather across eastern parts of US, and unseasonably warm weather in western areas that we are seeing this month.

As this weather pattern intensifies, expect deadly blazes to become a perennial concern, Al Jazeera reported.

end

Trump ready to release his campaign promise for public works/infrastructure

(courtesy Industry Week)

and special thanks to Robert H for sending this for us

Trump Is Said to Ready Public-Works Plan for January Release

The president aims to release a detailed document of principles, rather than a drafted bill, for upgrading roads, bridges, airports and other public works.

Freeway traffic

President Donald Trump plans to keep pushing his legislative agenda in 2018 by releasing his long-promised infrastructure proposal in early January, a senior administration official said.

Infrastructure advocates question whether a Republican-led Congress will be able to pass a spending plan with enough federal funding if it’s already approved a tax measure that official estimates say would bloat the budget deficit. Some say the administration missed its best opportunity to deliver a meaningful public works initiative by not incorporating it into the tax bill, which is nearing approval.

“If they’d taken up infrastructure, we’d have a bill today and have the money to fund it,” said Ray LaHood, a Republican and former transportation secretary under President Barack Obama. “Nothing happened this year, so the prospects of anything happening next year I think are pretty slim,” said LaHood, who is a co-chairman of Building America’s Future, a bipartisan coalition that promotes infrastructure.

The Russell 3000 Building Materials Index gained as much as 2.2 percent on the news and closed up 1.8 percent, as companies including Summit Materials Inc., Vulcan Materials Co. and Martin Marietta Inc. spiked sharply higher.

Trump Promised

Trump promised during his campaign to introduce a $1 trillion proposal within his first 100 days in office, then the administration said there’d be a plan by the third quarter. That didn’t happen after the failed attempt to overhaul health care and the ongoing tax effort.

The president aims to release a detailed document of principles, rather than a drafted bill, for upgrading roads, bridges, airports and other public works before the Jan. 30 State of the Union address, said the administration official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because the details aren’t public. Naysayers should wait until they see the details and how the legislative process unfolds, the official said.

The White House plan is essentially complete and Trump recently reviewed it, the official said. It calls for allocating at least $200 billion in federal funds over 10 years to spur at least $800 billion in spending by states, localities and the private sector.

The plan would put the federal dollars in four areas: cash for states and localities, with preference for entities that generate their own funding as well; formula block grants for rural areas; federal lending programs; and money for “transformational” work such as plans to build high-speed trains in tunnels by Boring Co., which was founded by Elon Musk.

Shift Responsibility

The guiding principle of the plan is to shift responsibility for funding from the federal government to states and localities — which own or control most assets — by providing incentives for them to generate their own sustainable funding sources and work with the private sector.

Still, some governors and mayors have already balked, saying they’re doing their fair share and that much more federal funding is needed to meet what the American Society of Civil Engineers has estimated to be a $2 trillion funding gap for infrastructure by 2025. Some advocates say the best chance was to include measures such as a higher gas tax or levies on corporate profits returned from overseas in the tax overhaul.

“We need to be honest with the American people: failure to find the revenue for an infrastructure initiative now, as part of tax reform, will make passage of such a package nearly impossible in the future,” Bud Wright, executive director of the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, said in a letter last month to Senate leaders.

Too Difficult

The White House official said it would have been too difficult to combine infrastructure with the tax bill. The plan now is to give Congress a blueprint for a bill and allow the details — including funding — to be negotiated in a bipartisan way, the official said.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce sees the $200 billion amount as “a floor, not the ceiling,” said Ed Mortimer, the chamber’s executive director for transportation infrastructure.

“While we’re all for leveraging limited federal dollars, the federal government can start by increasing its own investment,” Mortimer said.

The chamber has advocated raising the federal gas tax, which hasn’t been increased since 1993 as the easiest and fairest way to generate money. The administration hasn’t endorsed the idea but hasn’t taken it off the table, either.

‘Cautiously Optimistic’

Michael Burke, chairman and chief executive of AECOM, the world’s biggest engineering firm, said he’s “cautiously optimistic” about Congress enacting an infrastructure bill in 2018 but is disappointed that it didn’t happen this year.

“No doubt in my mind, it is a missed opportunity,” Burke said.

Despite the “headwinds and political turmoil,” Macquarie Infrastructure and Real Assets remains hopeful a proposal will emerge in 2018 because there is political constituency for it from across the political spectrum, Managing Director David Agnew said in a statement.

Incentives in the plan “would unlock hundreds of billions of dollars of state, local, and private capital,” Agnew said.

One problem is how to treat states and localities that have already raised money for projects so they’re not disadvantaged in the competition for federal funding, said Jim Tymon, chief operating officer of the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials in Washington.

Gas Taxes

Twenty-six states have raised or adjusted their motor-fuel tax rates and other fees during the past five years, and voters in 20 states approved $4.2 billion in new and continued funding for infrastructure in Nov. 7 ballot issues alone, according to the American Road & Transportation Builders Association.

The White House official said entities that raised revenues over time would get credit in the process, as will those that take action in 2018 instead of waiting for a federal bill.

The Trump administration has also said a major element of its plan will be streamlining environmental reviews and permitting for projects, vowing to reduce the time it takes to get approvals to about two years.

But there have been previous streamlining initiatives that have not yet been implemented, and it would be a mistake to focus on streamlining when more funding is needed, said Peter DeFazio of Oregon, the top Democrat on the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee. He said the initiative is already at risk because it has been delayed so long.

Still, infrastructure has always been a bipartisan issue, and there has not been this type of discussion about infrastructure at the federal level in decades, said Dave Bauer of the American Road & Transportation Builders Association.

“We’ll have a much better sense of the potential when we see how Congress responds to what the administration puts forward,” he said.

by Mark Niquette

end

This does not look good at all:  A judge who sits on the FISO court recuses himself immediately? Flynn was set up by the Democrats and all parties to this should be put into prison

(courtesy zero hedge)

Obama Appointed Judge Mysteriously Recuses Himself From Michael Flynn Case

Dec 8, 2017 7:25 AM


Judge Rudolph Contreras

The case against former National Security Advisor Mike Flynn has taken a strange turn, as U.S. District Judge Rudolph Contreras abruptly recused himself Thursday night with no explanation. Contreras is an Obama appointee who also sat on the FISA court while the Trump team was under surveillance by the Obama administration. Judge Emmet Sullivan, an Bill Clinton appointee, was randomly assigned to take over the case after Contreras’ recusal.

Of note, Contreras was appointed to the FISA court on May 19, 2016 – before the warrant to surveil one-time Trump advisor Carter Page was issued “in the summer” of 2016. It is unknown whether or not Contreras was involved in the decision, or whether he was involved in surveillance on Michael Flynn.

In fact every single FISA Court judge was appointed during the Obama administration: 

Michael Flynn pleaded guilty last Friday to a false statement charge brought by Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s office in relation to the Trump-Russia investigation. The retired Army lieutenant general and director of the Defense Intelligence Agency was fired 24 days into his role as National Security Advisor for lying about his meeting with Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak. Flynn also admitted to lying about his dealings with Turkey as a private lobbyist.

The case against Flynn, however, is not so straightforward. As Robert Parry pointed out last week:

What is arguably most disturbing about this case is that then-National Security Adviser Flynn was pushed into a perjury trap by Obama administration holdovers at the Justice Department who concocted an unorthodox legal rationale for subjecting Flynn to an FBI interrogation four days after he took office, testing Flynn s recollection of the conversations while the FBI agents had transcripts of the calls intercepted by the National Security Agency.

In other words, the Justice Department wasn t seeking information about what Flynn said to Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak the intelligence agencies already had that information. Instead, Flynn was being quizzed on his precise recollection of the conversations and nailed for lying when his recollections deviated from the transcripts.”

Parry continues; “Then, just four days into the Trump presidency, an Obama holdover, then-acting Attorney General Sally Yates, primed the Flynn perjury trap by coming up with a novel legal theory that Flynn although the national security adviser-designate at the time of his late December phone calls with Kislyak was violating the 1799 Logan Act, which prohibits private citizens from interfering with U.S. foreign policy.”

The Logan Act, however, was never intended to apply to incoming officials in the transition period – and in the past 218 years, has resulted in no successful prosecution.

Yates then performed mental gymnastics based on her Logan Act theory to assert that Flynn’s deviation from the transcript of the intercepts meant he might be vulnerable to Russian blackmail. 

This, as Parry points out, would require that the Russians first would have detected the discrepancies; secondly, they would have naively assumed that the U.S. intelligence agencies had not intercepted the conversations, which would have negated any blackmail potential; and thirdly, the Russians would have to do something so ridiculously heavy-handed trying to blackmail Flynn that it would poison relations with the new Trump administration.

In other words, Michael Flynn was surveilled under a FISA warrant, then set up to fail by Sally Yates when he deviated from the transcripts of his intercepted conversations. And the judge overseeing his case, who is on the FISA court, has suddenly recused himself.

Last but not least, journalist Sara Carter revealed on hannity.com that the anti-Trump agent fired from Robert Mueller’s Special Counsel, Peter Strzokwas one of two FBI agents who interviewed Flynn on January 24 at the White House, according to a former intelligence official with knowledge of the interview.

[W]ith the recent revelation that Strzok was removed from the Special Counsel investigation for making anti-Trump text messages it seems likely that the accuracy and veracity of the 302 of Flynn s interview as a whole should be reviewed and called into question, said Carter’s source, who added “he most logical thing to happen would be to call the other FBI Special Agent present during Flynn s interview before the Grand Jury to recount his version.”

Furthermore, Sara Carter reports that Flynn was tricked into a formal investigation after FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe told the retired three-star general “some agents were heading over (to the White House),” which Flynn thought was related to routine work the FBI had been doing – only to realize they were sent there for him.

It wasn t until after they were already in (Flynn s) office that he realized he was being formerly interviewed. He didn t have an attorney with him

Between the recused judge who sits on the FISA court, Sally Yates’ transcript ‘trap,’ and the fact that the FBI reportedly interviewed Flynn without an attorney present, it will be interesting to see how the case against Michael Flynn holds up.

Well that about does it for today

I will see you MONDAY night

HARVEY

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