Dec 11/ANOTHER MINOR RAID BY THE BANKERS: GOLD DOWN $1.45 AND SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS/ANOTHER HUGE GOLD AND SILVER TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP’S: GOLD , 5694 CONTRACTS TRANSFERRED/SILVER: 2094 CONTRACTS/SILVER HAS BEEN DOWN FOR 9 CONSECUTIVE TRADING DAYS AND YET THEIR SILVER INVENTORY RISES BY 8.17 MILLION OZ/ BITCOIN CLOSES AT $17,134.00/PER COIN/LARGE CHINESE CONGLOMERATE NHA EXPERIENCING LIQUIDITY PROBLEMS/IN A SURPRISE MOVE, RUSSIAN ORDERS MOST OF ITS TROOPS OUT OF SYRIA SAYING HIS JOB AGAINST ISIS IS DONE/CALIFORNIA FIRES RAGE ON AS NOW SANTA BARBARA IS BEING ENGULFED

GOLD: $1245.05 DOWN $1.45

Silver: $15.76 DOWN 4 cents

Closing access prices:

Gold $1242.25

silver: $15.73

SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1256.99 DOLLARS PER OZ

NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: $1248.85

PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $8.14

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SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1258.35

NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1251.00

Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$8.35

SHANGHAI REJECTS NY /LONDON PRICING OF GOLD

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LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1251.40

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1250.40

LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1250.65

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. 1250.50

For comex gold:

DECEMBER/

 NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR DECBER CONTRACT:  4 NOTICE(S) FOR 400 OZ.

TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 6099 FOR 609900 OZ (18.97 TONNES),

For silver:

DECEMBER

1 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

5,000 OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 5286 for 26,430,000 oz

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Bitcoin: BID $16,177/OFFER $16,780, UP $1698 (morning) 

BITCOIN : BID $17,136 OFFER: $17,236 // UP $2134 (CLOSING)

end

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total open interest SURPRISINGLY ROSE BY A WHOPPING 3460 contracts from 193,096 RISING TO 196,556 DESPITE FRIDAY’S TINY SIZED  3 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICING.     WE HAD SURPRISINGLY NO REAL  COMEX LIQUIDATION AND ON TOP OF THIS, WE WERE AGAIN NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD ANOTHER GIGANTIC NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE :  2094 EFP’S FOR MARCH (AND ZERO FOR DEC AND OTHER MONTHS) AND THUS TOTAL ISSUANCE OF 2094 CONTRACTS.   I GUESS WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. FRIDAY WITNESSED 2951 EFP’S FOR SILVER ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/ STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF DECEMBER:

24,402 CONTRACTS (FOR 7 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 24,402 CONTRACTS OR 122.01 MILLION OZ: AVERAGE PER DAY: 3,486 CONTRACTS OR 17.43 MILLION OZ/DAY)

RESULT: A HUGE SIZED RISE IN OI COMEX DESPITE THE TINY 3 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICE.  HOWEVER  WE HAD ALL OF OUR COMEX LONGS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX  TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:  FROM THE CME DATA 2094 EFP’S  WERE ISSUED TODAY  FOR A DELIVERABLE CONTRACT OVER IN LONDON WITH A FIAT BONUS. IN ESSENCE THE  DEMAND FOR SILVER PHYSICAL INTENSIFIES GREATLY. WE REALLY GAINED 5554 OI CONTRACTS i.e. 2094 open interest contracts headed for London (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A INCREASE OF 3460 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS INCREASED DEMAND  HAPPENED WITH THE TINY RISE IN PRICE OF SILVER BY 3 CENTS AND A LOW CLOSING PRICE OF $15.80 YESTERDAY. YET WE STILL HAVE A MASSIVE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX.

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by just UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.955 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 140% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT DECEMBER MONTH/ THEY FILED: 1 NOTICE(S) FOR 5,000 OZ OF SILVER

In gold, the open interest FELL BY AN EXPECTED 5820 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 453,037 WITH THE FAIR SIZED FALL  IN PRICE OF GOLD ON FRIDAY ($4.75).  HOWEVER,  THE TOTAL NUMBER OF GOLD EFP’S ISSUED FRIDAY FOR MONDAY  TOTALED ANOTHER  5,694 CONTRACTS OF WHICH THE MONTH OF DECEMBER SAW 0 CONTRACTS AND FEB SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 5694 CONTRACTS. The new OI for the gold complex rests at 454,706. DEMAND FOR GOLD INTENSIFIES GREATLY AS WE WITNESS THE HUGE NUMBER OF EFP TRANSFERS TOGETHER WITH THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD OUNCES STANDING FOR DECEMBER. EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK  TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD.  THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX  HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER AND ON TOP OF THAT IT IS TAKING A FURTHER 13 WEEKS TO OBTAIN PHYSICAL FROM THE POINT WHEN FORWARDS BECOME DUE. IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A TINY NET LOSS OF 126 OI CONTRACTS: 5820 OI CONTRACTS LEFT THE  COMEX  BUT  5694 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THE CME HAS BEEN VERY TARDY IN THEIR REPORTING OF EFP ISSUANCE.  THEY ARE IMMEDIATELY REMOVING COMEX OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS BUT DELAYING RELEASE OF EFP’S FOR 24 HOURS OR GREATER AS NO DOUBT THEY ARE NEGOTIATING WITH THE LONGS FOR A FIAT BONUS.

FRIDAY, WE HAD 18,804 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S/ GOLD(EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER STARTING WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE100,121 CONTRACTS OR 10.012 MILLION OZ OR 311.00 TONNES (7 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING:14,303 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY OR 1.430 MILLION OZ/DAY)

Result: A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN OI WITH THE FALL IN PRICE IN GOLD TRADING  FRIDAY ($4.75). WE  HAD A LARGE  NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 5694. THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX AND YET WE REACHED THE HUGE DELIVERY MONTH OF DECEMBER. I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES.  IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 5604 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A NET LOSS OPEN INTEREST OF 126  contracts:

5694 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 5820 CONTRACTS LEFT THE  COMEX.

we had:  4  notice(s) filed upon for 400 oz of gold.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD:

Today, SURPRISINGLY NO CHANGES in gold inventory at the GLD/

Inventory rests tonight: 842.81 tonnes.

SLV

oh oh!!!TODAY WE HAD ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A ‘DEPOSIT” OF 944,000 OZ DESPITE THE CONSTANT RAID ON SILVER. SILVER HAS BEEN DOWN 9 STRAIGHT TRADING DAYS.

INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.299 MILLION OZ

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in silver ROSE BY A HUGE  3460 contracts from 193,096 UP  TO 196,556 (AND now A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET ON FRIDAY/APRIL 21/2017 AT 234,787) DESPITE THE TINY GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND CONTINUAL BOMBARDMENT (A RISE OF 3 CENTS ). HOWEVER,OUR BANKERS  USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE ANOTHER HUGE  2094  PRIVATE EFP’S FOR MARCH (WE DO NOT GET A LOOK AT THESE CONTRACTS AS IT IS PRIVATE BUT THE CFTC DOES AUDIT THEM).  EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  WE HAD ZERO COMEX SILVER COMEX LIQUIDATION. ON TOP OF THIS, IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX 3460 CONTRACTS   TO THE 2094 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S  WE OBTAIN A NET GAIN OF  5554  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS, AND YET WE STILL HAVE A  HUGE AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES THAT ARE STANDING FOR METAL IN DECEMBER (SEE BELOW). THE NET GAIN TODAY IN OZ: 27.27 MILLION OZ!!! 

RESULT: A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE TINY 3 CENT GAIN IN PRICE (WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING).  BUT WE ALSO  HAD ANOTHER 2094 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING  COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON . TOGETHER WITH THE HUGE AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR DECEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER INTENSIFIES DESPITE THE CONSTANT RAIDS.

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late SUNDAY night/MONDAY morning: Shanghai closed UP 32.20 points or .98% /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 325.44 pts or 1.14% / The Nikkei closed UP 127.65 POINTS OR 0.56%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.07%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.6182/Oil DOWN to 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 63.36 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED. ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.6182. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST  THE ONSHORE YUAN AT 6.6203 //ONSHORE YUAN STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR/OFF SHORE STRONGER TO THE DOLLAR/. THE DOLLAR (INDEX) IS  WEAKER AGAINST ALL MAJOR CURRENCIES. CHINA IS VERY HAPPY TODAY

3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA

i)North Korea/South Korea/

Russia rebukes USA for continual military drills in the Korean Peninsula

( zerohedge)

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 c  CHINA

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)Looks like we have another Enron as Steinhoff implodes.  Global banks are on the hook for 21 billion uSA

( zerohedge)

ii)Poland has figured out the EU and they are ignoring rules.  Poland is adamant that they do not want migration. It looks like they want to be kicked out
( zerohedge)
iii0Here is a great example of what you get when you allow migration from Muslim countries.  Brussels, once the jewel of Europe is now a hell hole.

( Godefridi))

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)Not good:  rioting in Beirut as protesters storm the USA embassy gates  there.

( zerohedge)

ib)More rockets fired from Gaza to which Israel responded with their airstrikes and tank firings:

( zerohedge)

ii)In a surprise move, Putin orders the withdrawal of considerable Russian troops stating that ISIS has been defeated.  This is counter to the USA who is keeping their soldiers on the ground

( zerohedge)

iii0Russia may turn to an oil backed cryptocurrency to challenge USA sanctions and USA petrodollar hegemony

( zerohedge)

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

7. OIL ISSUES

( zerohedge)

8. EMERGING MARKET

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Saturday:  the real problem with Bitcoin: only 1000 investors worldwide control almost 50% of the market

( zerohedge)

ii)Saturday:  The Bulgarian government seized bitcoin as the owners of these were from organized crime.  Now this confiscation is now worth $3 billion/enough to wipe out 20% of their debt.

( zerohedge)

iii)Kunstler correctly states that bitcoin has replaced gold as the alarm bell

(Kunstler/GATA)

iv)Max Keiser:  Bitcoin’s success will eventually liberate gold form price suppression

(Max Keiser/Kitco/GATA)

v)Swiss monetary metals expert Claudio Grass states that the Russian government knows all about the Western gold price suppression scheme and with the new alliance between Russia and China we will have a real gold standard and the end of uSA dominance

( Grass/GATA)

vi)Sam Meredith of CNBC also states that the Bitcoin mania will boost efforts to dethrone the USA dollar( Meredith/CNBC/GATA)

vii)He is nuts: huge owner of bitcoin, Winklevoss sees the cryptocurrency replacing gold.

( Kharif/Bloomberg/GATA)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

i)ISIS inspired pipe bomb in NEW York at the Bus Terminal.  Suspect arrested

( zerohedge)

ii)Southern California fires rage on as 230,000 acres is involved in this catastrophe.  The fire comes the 5th largest in state history

( zerohedge)

iii)More nonsense as the Senate tax bill has marginal tax rates over 100% on certain pass through entities once income surpasses around $600,000
( zerohedge)

iv)Janet’s favourite indicator, the JOLTS report shows a huge standard deviation move upward showing 5.6 million Americans were hired in October.  This is soft data and is always manipulated.(courtesy zerohedge)

v)David Stockman tackles the nonsense in the latest jobs report and the shape of the USA “recovery”

( David Stockman/ContraCorner)

Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest  FELL BY AN EXPECTED  5,820  CONTRACTS DOWN to an OI level of 453,037 DESPITE THE FAIR SIZED FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($4.75 LOSS WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING).  IN ACTUAL FACT WE DID NOT HAVE ANY GOLD  LIQUIDATION.  WE  HAD ANOTHER LARGE COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED  A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS. THE CME REPORTS THAT 0 EFPS WERE ISSUED FOR DECEMBER  AND 5694 EFP’S WERE ISSUED FOR FEBRUARY FOR A TOTAL OF 5694 CONTRACTS. THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS.  THE CONSTANT BANKER RAIDS CONTINUE AS THEY TRY TO GET  OUR “MATHEMATICAL PAPER LONGS” IN GOLD TO LIQUIDATE THEIR POSITIONS AT THE COMEX. IT LOOKS LIKE IT HAS SUCCEEDED WITH OUR MATHEMATICAL PLAYERS AS THEY CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON THE SHORT SIDE  (SEE SATURDAY’S COT REPORT) BUT THE OTHER SMART HEDGE PLAYERS MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AND RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS FOR THEIR EFFORT.  THE CME HAS BEEN VERY TARDY IN THEIR REPORTING OF EFP’S CONTRACTS AFTER A COMEX OI MORPHS INTO AN EFP WHICH WAS THE REASON FOR MY 2ND LETTER TO THE CFTC.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST TODAY: 126 OI CONTRACTS IN THAT 5694 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON  AND WE LOST  5820 COMEX CONTRACTS.  NET LOSS: 126 contracts OR 12600 OZ OR 0.3919 TONNES

Result: AN EXPECTED DECREASE IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST WITH THE  FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD YESTERDAY ($4.75.)   WE HAD NO REAL GOLD LIQUIDATION. TOTAL OPEN INTEREST LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 126 OI CONTRACTS…

We have now entered the  active contract month of DECEMBER. The open interest for the front month of December saw it’s open interest surprisingly rise by 11 contracts up to 2178.  We had 62 notices filed upon yesterday so we gained 73 COMEX contracts or an additional 7300 oz will  stand for delivery AT THE COMEX in this active delivery month of December

January saw its open interest LOSS OF 69 contracts DOWN to 1984. FEBRUARY saw a loss of 5456 contacts down to 346.207.

We had 4 notice(s) filed upon today for 400 oz

PRELIMINARY VOLUME TODAY ESTIMATED;  171,446

FINAL NUMBERS CONFIRMED FOR YESTERDAY:  286,175

comex gold volumes are increasing dramatically

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI SURPRISINGLY ROSE BY A TOTALLY UNEXPECTED 3460 CONTRACTS  FROM 193,096 UP TO 196,556 DESPITE FRIDAY’S TINY 3 CENT GAIN IN PRICE (AND CONTINUAL RAIDING OF OUR PRECIOUS METALS).  HOWEVER WE DID HAVE ANOTHER STRONG 2094 EMERGENCY EFP’S FOR MARCH ISSUED BY OUR BANKERS (ZERO FOR DECEMBER) TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 2094.  IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE SILVER BOYS HAVE STARTED TO MIGRATE TO LONDON FROM THE START OF DELIVERY MONTH AND CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH UNTIL FIRST DAY NOTICE JUST LIKE WE ARE WITNESSING TODAY.  USUALLY WE NOTED THAT CONTRACTION IN OI OCCURRED ONLY DURING THE LAST WEEK OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH. THIS PROCESS HAS JUST BEGUN IN EARNEST IN SILVER STARTING IN SEPTEMBER.  HOWEVER, IN GOLD, WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING THIS FOR THE PAST 2 YEARS.  WITHOUT A DOUBT WE HAD NO  LONG SILVER LIQUIDATION AS DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER REMAINS STRONG ESPECIALLY AS WE WITNESS A HUGE AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR METAL IN DECEMBER AS WELL AS THAT MASSIVE MIGRATION OF EFPS OVER TO LONDON. IT SEEMS THAT ALL OF OUR LOST SILVER COMEX OI CONTRACTS HAVE MIGRATED OVER TO THE PHYSICAL HUB OF OUR PRECIOUS METALS, LONDON. ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 5554 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS:

3460 CONTRACTS GAIN AT THE COMEX WITH THE ADDITION OF  2094 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN: 5554 CONTRACTS

We are now in the big active delivery month of December and here the OI fell by 31 contracts down to 805.  We had 54 notices filed upon yesterday so we GAINED 23 contract or an additional 115,000 oz will  stand in this active delivery month of December.

The January contract month ROSE by 19 contracts UP to 1378.  February saw a LOSS OF 8 OI contract FALLING TO 56. The March contract GAINED 3336 contracts UP to 157,603.

We had 1 notice(s) filed  for 5,000 oz for the DECEMBER 2017 contract

INITIAL standings for DECEMBER

 Dec 11/2017.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz   nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz  
4822.50 oz
Scotia
150 kilobars
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz    nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz 
10,410.998 oz
Scotia
No of oz served (contracts) today
 
4 notice(s)
400 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
2174 contracts
(217,400 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
6099 notices
609900 oz
18.970 tonnes
Total accumulative withdrawals  of gold from the Dealers inventory this month   NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month     xxx oz
Today we HAD  1 kilobar trans

WE HAD nil DEALER DEPOSIT:
total dealer deposits: nil oz

We had nil dealer withdrawals:
total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 1 customer deposit(s):

i) Into Scotia: 10,410.998

total customer deposits 10,410.998  oz

We had 1 customer withdrawal(s)

i) Out of Scotia: 4822.500 oz

150 kilobars

Total customer withdrawals: 4822.500 oz

we had 0 adjustment(s)

*December is the biggest delivery month of the year for gold and the fact that no gold has entered the vaults these past three trading days speaks volumes that there is no appreciable gold at the comex to deliver upon our longs and thus the reason for the migration to London

For DECEMBER:
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 4 contract(s) of which 4 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the DECEMBER. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (6099) x 100 oz or 609,900 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC. (2178 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (4 x 100 oz per contract) equals 827,300 oz, the number of ounces standing in this  active month of DECEMBER

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the DECEMBER contract month:

No of notices served (6099) x 100 oz or ounces + {(2178)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (4) x 100 oz which equals 827,300 oz standing in this active delivery month of DECEMBER (25.73 tonnes). THERE IS  28 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY SO FAR.

WE GAINED 73 COMEX CONTRACTS STANDING OR 7300 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX  AND QUEUE JUMPING RETURNS TO GOLD.

.

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ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR DECEMBER 2016,  THE INITIAL  GOLD STANDING:  39.038 TONNES STANDING

BY THE END OF THE MONTH:  FINAL: 29.791 TONNES STOOD FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS THE REMAINDER HAD TRANSFERRED OVER TO LONDON FORWARDS.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Total dealer inventory 913,599.261 or 28.41 tonnes (dealer gold continues to disappear)
Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) = 8,982,142.308 or 279.38 tonnes

I have a sneaky feeling that these withdrawals of gold in kilobars are being used in the hypothecating process and are being used in the raiding of gold!
The gold comex is an absolute fraud. The use of kilobars and exact weights makes the data totally absurd and fraudulent! To me, the only thing that makes sense is the fact that “kilobars: are entries of hypothecated gold sent to other jurisdictions so that they will not be short with their underwritten derivatives in that jurisdiction. This would be similar to the rehypothecated gold used by Jon Corzine at MF Global.

IN THE LAST 14 MONTHS 75 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE DECEMBER DELIVERY MONTH

DECEMBER INITIAL standings

 Dec 11/ 2017
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory  nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
1000.000 oz
Delaware
exact weight???
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
 nil
oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory 
 nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
1 CONTRACT(S)
(5,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
804 contract
(4,020,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 5286 contracts

(26,430,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month  NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal  of silver from the Customer inventory this month

today, we had 0 deposit(s) into the dealer account:

total dealer deposit: nil  oz

we had 0 dealer withdrawals:

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 1 customer withdrawal(s):

i) Out  of Delaware: 1000.000 oz exact weight??

TOTAL CUSTOMER WITHDRAWAL  1,000.000 oz

We had 0 Customer deposit(s):

***deposits into JPMorgan have stopped again
In the month of March and February, JPMorgan stopped (received) almost all of the comex silver contracts.
why is JPMorgan bringing in so much silver??? why is this not criminal in that they are also the massive short in silver

total customer deposits: nil oz

we had 0 adjustment(s)

The total number of notices filed today for the DECEMBER. contract month is represented by 1 contract(s) FOR 5,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in DECEMBER., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 5290 x 5,000 oz = 26,430,0000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC. (805) and the number of notices served upon today (1 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the DECEMBER contract month: 5286 (notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of DECEMBER(805) -number of notices served upon today (1)x 5000 oz equals 30,450,000 oz of silver standing for the DECEMBER contract month. This is EXCELLENT for this active delivery month of November.

WE GAINED AN ADDITIONAL 23 CONTRACTS OR 115,000 OZ THAT WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS QUEUE JUMPING ACCELERATES WITH RESPECT TO SILVER.  BOTH GOLD AND SILVER ARE NOW EXPERIENCING QUEUE JUMPING.

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR THE DECEMBER 2016 CONTRACT WE HAD 15.282 MILLION OZ STAND.

THE FINAL STANDING: 19.900 MILLION OZ AS QUEUE JUMPING INTENSIFIED.

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ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 51.860

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR FRIDAY:   78,660 CONTRACTS

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 78,660 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO 393 MILLION OZ OR 56.1% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION.  THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

Total dealer silver: 56.695 million
Total number of dealer and customer silver: 239.902 million oz

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott and Central Fund of Canada

1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative 2.3 percent to NAV usa funds and Negative 2.4% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!!
Percentage of fund in gold 63.3%
Percentage of fund in silver:36.4%
cash .+.3%( Dec 11/2017)

 

2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -0.68% (Dec 11 /2017)
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.24% to NAV (Dec 11/2017 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -0.68%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ territory at -0.24%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail but being rescued by Sprott.
Sprott WINS hostile 3.1 billion bid to take over Central Fund of Canada

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD

Dec 11/SURPRISINGLY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD DESPITE THE CONSTANT RAIDS ON GOLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.81 TONNES

Dec 8/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.81 TONNES

Dec 7/A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 2.66 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.81 TONNES

Dec 6/No changes in GOLD inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 845.47 tonnes

Dec 5/A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.64 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.47 TONNES

Dec 4/A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 8.56 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/THE BLEEDING OF GLD GOLD HAS STOPPED/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 848.11 TONNES

Dec 1/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 839.55 TONNES

Nov 30/no change in gold inventory at the GLD. Inventory rests at 839.55 tonnes

Nov 29/a withdrawal of 2.66 tonnes at the GLD/Inventory rests at 839.55 tonnes

NOV 28/ no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 842.21 tonnes

Nov 27 Strange!! we gold up by $6.40 today, we had a good sized withdrawal of 1.18 tonnes from the GLD. Here is something that is also strange: we have had exactly 1.18 tonnes of gold withdrawn from the comex on 5 separate occasions in the past 30 days..explanation?

Nov 24/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 843.09 tonnes

Nov 22/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 843.39 tonnes

Nov 21/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 843.39 tonnes

NOV 20/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 843.39 tonnes

Nov 17/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 843.39 tonnes

Nov 16./NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.39 TONNES

Nov 15./no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 843.09 tonnes

NOV 14/a small deposit of .300 tonnes into the GLD inventory/Inventory rests at 843.39 tonnes

Nov 13/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.09 TONNES

Nov 10/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 843.09 tonnes

Nov 9/no changes in inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 843.09 tonnes

NOV 8/ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD DESPITE GOLD’S RISE TODAY. INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.09

Nov 7/a huge withdrawal of 1.48 tonnes of gold from the GLD/Inventory rests at 844.27 tonnes

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Dec 11/2017/ Inventory rests tonight at 842.81 tonnes

*IN LAST 290 TRADING DAYS: 98.14 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 225 TRADING DAYS: A NET 59.14 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO GLD INVENTORY.
*FROM FEB 1/2017: A NET 28.03 TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED.

end

Now the SLV Inventory

Dec 11/WOW!! ANOTHER STRANGE ONE: SILVER DESPITE BEING DOWN FOR 9 CONSECUTIVE TRADING DAYS ADDS ANOTHER 944,000 OZ TO ITS INVENTORY. FROM NOV 30 UNTIL TODAY SILVER HAS BEEN DOWN EVERY DAY. HOWEVER THE INVENTORY OF SILVER HAS RISEN 8.169 MILLION OZ.

Dec 8/A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.642 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.355 MILLION OZ/

Dec 7/strange!! with the continual whacking of silver, no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 321.713

Dec 6/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory remains at 21.713 million oz.

Dec 5/THIS ONE HIT ME LIKE A TON OF BRICKS: SLV ADDS 2.507 MILLION OZ DESPITE THE HUGE DRUBBING SILVER TOOK TODAY. (PRICE DISCOVERY?)

Dec 4/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.207 MILLION OZ/

Dec 1/VERY STRANGE!! WITH SILVER IN THE DUMPSTER THESE PAST FEW DAYS, SLV ADDS 2.076 MILLION OZ/???

INVENTORY 319.207 MILLION OZ/

Nov 30/no changes in silver inventory despite the huge drop in price/inventory rests at 317.130 million oz

Nov 29/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 317.130 million oz/strange!! at drop of 32 cents and no change in inventory?

Nov 28/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 317.130 million oz.

Nov 27/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY DESPITE A ZERO GAIN IN PRICE /QUITE OPPOSITE TO GOLD WHICH SAW 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD WITHDRAWN DESPITE A RISE IN PRICE OF $6.40

Nov 24/A WITHDRAWAL OF 944,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.130 MILLION OZ

Nov 22/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 318.074 million oz.

Nov 21/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 318.074 million oz/

NOV 20/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 318.074 million oz

Nov 17/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 318.074 million oz/

Nov 16./NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.074 MILLION OZ/

Nov 15./no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 318.074 tones

NOV 14/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 318.074 tonnes

Nov 13/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.074 MILLION OZ

Nov 10/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 318.074 million oz/

Nov 9/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 318.074 million oz.

NOV 8/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.074 MILLION OZ

Nov 7/a huge withdrawal of 944,000 oz from the SLV/inventory rests at 318.074 million oz/

Dec 11/2017:

Inventory 325.299 million oz

end

6 Month MM GOFO
Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration

+ 1.49%
12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.79%
30 day trend

end

Major gold/silver trading /commentaries for MONDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.

GOLD/SILVER

Bitcoin – Plan Your Exit Strategy Now – Maybe With Gold

Bitcoin – Plan Your Exit Strategy Now – Maybe With Gold

Made money in bitcoin? Well done. Don’t wait until the stampede starts. Here’s what you must do now.

by Dominic Frisby in Money Week

So there I was on Sunday afternoon, doing what it is one does on a Sunday – very little in my case – and a notification comes up on my phone:

“Bitcoin rises over 10% to $11,800”.


Bitcoin in USD (1 Year). Source: CoinDesk

On a Sunday. When every other market is closed.

It’s bad enough that bitcoin is making every other market in the world look like a dirge when they’re open. But to carry on rising even when they’re closed!

What is happening is almost incredible…

I wrote the book on bitcoin – I understand why it’s a big deal. But…

I get all the bitcoin arguments.

It’s the money of the future. There’s a finite supply in the face of increasing demand, a demand which is global. The technology goes far beyond alternative cash systems. This is about the “S curve” adoption of a new tech – like TVs or mobile phones – a tech, which also happens to be money.

I get all of that. I wrote a book about it, the first by a recognised publisher.

All that stuff is true and more besides. The arguments for bitcoin get stronger and stronger as the narrative of the bull market evolves.

But this is now a mania. All the messages I’m getting about it – and having written that book a lot of people contact me with questions – are not from people who are interested in the new tech.

They’re from people who want in on what is proving to be the most epic bull market in history. They do not want to miss out. FOMO is rife.

One arrived just as I was writing this article. The title read “Urgent Advice Please!” Note the exclamation mark.

It was from an old school friend.

Want to go into Bitcoin big right now. I have started small using Coinbase. What are your views on this and what exchange(s) would you recommend?

Many thanks and hope to catch up properly before long!

This guy is intelligent, experienced financier with 20 years experience in the private banking department at HSBC in Zurich, now working freelance in other fields. Is now, with the mania this evolved, the time to be going big? He clearly thinks so. How much research has he done?

I’m not calling the top. There is a bubble of people calling bitcoin a bubble. Normally bubbles end when the shoe shine boy gets in. This one is the other way round. The shoe shine boys got in early. This one will pop when the institutions get in.

That’s the remarkable reversed psychology of this story. The idea of an alternative money system, a money without governments, appealed first to anyone on the outside. It was especially appealing to those for whom, perhaps, life hadn’t worked out quite as well as they hoped (which is, let’s face it, most of us). Anyone who feels even slightly overlooked, alienated, left out or discontent.

Playing this bull market, a bit like voting for Brexit or even Trump, is a bit like getting one back. There was a similar trait common amongst gold bugs in that bull market. “Haha! Screw you, establishment! Your money system’s going to die. We are the new millionaires!” The more bitcoin has risen, the more this narrative has taken hold.

The mania has caught the zeitgeist of dissatisfaction that is currently sweeping the world.

I’ve made the bullish case for bitcoin many times. I’ve shown how bitcoin could go to $100,000. But I’m no permabull either (although ultimately perma-bullish buy and hold, or HODL as it’s known in bitcoin circles, has been the best investment strategy so far – it always is in bull markets).

In my book back in 2014, I said get familiar with the tech, try it out with small amounts of money, but as an investment the timing is not quite right.

I was right with the call. Bitcoin was in a bear market. When I was writing the book, bitcoin was trading above $500, the bear market took it below $200 a coin. In spring 2016, with bitcoin around $450, I said it’s time to buy.

I’ve made both bullish and bearish cases at different times. But there is something about now – and maybe it’s that email from my friend that did it – that has made me start thinking about what happens when this mania ends.

Plan your exit strategy now. Don’t wait until the stampede starts

When manias end, what is currently euphoria turns to pain. Another person emailed yesterday happily saying they’ve made $2,000 in two weeks, smiley face. How will they feel when they start losing $2,000 in two weeks?

Such pain will be spread among the hordes – and I mean hordes – of inexperienced investors who have only recently got into Bitcoin. Many of these people are kids who’ve never lived through bear markets before. The pain will turn to panic.

The Achilles heel in the whole crypto infrastructure is the point of transfer between fiat and crypto – getting your money in and getting it out. It’s got better, but it is still not easy. One reason so many people have not invested as much as they would have liked has been the simple practical difficulty of actually buying the coins in the first place.

Selling them for fiat, when everybody is trying to do the same thing, and getting your money out, will be harder.
The deeper you’re into crypto – perhaps you’re into monero or dash or some other altcoin – the harder it will be to get out into fiat. The diehards will tell you you never need to leave crypto. That may be so, but many will not feel the same way in a bear market. If there is a rush into the arms of fiat, the point of transfer from crypto to fiat is where the issues are going to be.

At present there is a plethora of buyers. There won’t be when sentiment changes. When Bitcoin comes down, they will all come down. The sector moves as one. The very liquidity issues that have driven the Bitcoin price so high so quickly could work in reverse.

So if you are long Bitcoin or any other crypto, my first bit of advice is this: sell a small amount now. Practise selling. Identify the obstacles in moving your money from crypto to fiat, and learn how to deal with them.
Have your escape strategy clearly mapped out so that, when there is a rush for the exit – and there will be one day – you know exactly what you’re doing and you won’t get caught out.

When liquidity dries up and the tide goes out, that’s the point at which you realise who has been swimming naked. That’s when the scams emerge, the frauds, the excessive debt and margin.

Do the exchanges you use have the wherewithal to deal with an 80% crash (there have been five of these in Bitcoin’s history) and the overwhelming traffic that accompanies a stampede for the exit? Which of these ICOs and altcoins are the genuine article and which are just hype and BS? Which are the ones people will hold onto and which will they drop?

These are the questions you need to be asking now, during the euphoria stage of a bull market. Like I say, I’m not calling the top. I’m saying prepare for the top.

What happens in the aftermath of a bubble such as this bursting? A lot of pain, a lot of recrimination, a lot of new demands for new laws and regulations to make it impossible for such a thing to happen again.

And maybe that forgotten asset will start to look shiny and attractive once again: gold.

Read the full article by Dominic Frisby on MoneyWeek here

News and Commentary

Gold little changed amid firm dollar (Reuters.com)

Bitcoin Futures Trading Brings Crypto Into Mainstream (Reuters.com)

Bitcoin exchange warns customers of system collapse if prices crash (CityAM.com)

Investors Told to Brace for Steepest Rate Hikes Since 2006 (Bloomberg.com)

Malaysia ‘ready’ to send military to Jerusalem if needed (CNBC.com)

US forces could potentially lose next war to Russia or China, warns sobering Rand report (CNBC.com)

Gold’s Time Is Nigh (Bloomberg.com)

Could gold do a bitcoin and hit $10,000 an ounce in 2018? (TheNational.ae)

Finally, Gold Speculators Start To Bail, Setting Up A Big Q1 2018 (DollarCollapse.com)

Saxo Bank predicts Bitcoin at $60,000 before collapse to $1,000 in 2018 (CryptoCoinsNews.com)

Bitcoin Futures Trading Brings Crypto Into Mainstream (Bloomberg.com)

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

11 Dec: USD 1,251.40, GBP 935.80 & EUR 1,061.19 per ounce
08 Dec: USD 1,245.85, GBP 924.42 & EUR 1,061.09 per ounce
07 Dec: USD 1,256.80, GBP 937.57 & EUR 1,066.77 per ounce
06 Dec: USD 1,268.55, GBP 948.37 & EUR 1,072.31 per ounce
05 Dec: USD 1,275.90, GBP 950.29 & EUR 1,075.71 per ounce
04 Dec: USD 1,279.10, GBP 952.67 & EUR 1,079.43 per ounce
01 Dec: USD 1,277.25, GBP 946.57 & EUR 1,072.51 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

11 Dec: USD 15.84, GBP 11.84 & EUR 13.43 per ounce
08 Dec: USD 15.83, GBP 11.76 & EUR 13.48 per ounce
07 Dec: USD 15.91, GBP 11.94 & EUR 13.49 per ounce
06 Dec: USD 16.12, GBP 12.06 & EUR 13.64 per ounce
05 Dec: USD 16.29, GBP 12.14 & EUR 13.72 per ounce
04 Dec: USD 16.33, GBP 12.09 & EUR 13.77 per ounce
01 Dec: USD 16.42, GBP 12.16 & EUR 13.80 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– Gold Demand Increases Along with Uncertainty Thanks to Trump, Brexit and North Korea
– UK Pensions Risk – Time to Rebalance and Allocate to Cash and Gold
– Bailins Coming In EU – 114 Italian Banks Have NP Loans Exceeding Tangible Assets
– Silver’s Positive Fundamentals Due To Strong Demand In Key Growth Industries
– An Interview with GoldCore Founder, Mark O’Byrne
– Risk Of Online Accounts Seen As One of Largest Brokerages In World Halts Online Trading After “Glitch”
– Low Cost Gold In The Age Of QE, AI, Trump and War
– Own Gold Bullion To “Support National Security” – Russian Central Bank
– Bitcoin $10,000 – Huge Volatility of Cryptocurrencies and Risky Fiat Making Gold Attractive
– Financial Advice from Dr Wayne Dyer
– Buy Gold As Fed Shows Uncertainty And Concern Over Financial ‘Imbalances’
– Brexit Budget – Grim Outlook As UK Economy Downgraded
– Geopolitical Risk Highest “In Four Decades” – Gold Demand in Germany and Globally to Remain Robust

end

Bitcoin trading Monday

Bitcoin above $17,300.00

(courtesy zerohedge)

Bitcoin Smashes Record After Coinbase Resumes Trading, Futs Arb Spread Tumbles

Something just snapped in the cryptosphere…

First, we noted that the spread between Bitcoin spot and futures was tumbling…

Something we would expect to close:

“Arbitrage will close that gap, but it will be days and weeks,” Cboe Chief Executive Officer Ed Tilly said on Bloomberg Television Monday, less than a day after launching the product.

“If you’re doing a cash-settled future, it’s just a bet,” said Aaron Brown, a former managing director at quant hedge fund AQR Capital Management who invests in the cryptocurrency and writes for Bloomberg Prophets.

“If that’s not related to any underlying physical transaction, the only people who want to do it are gamblers.”

The wide arb spread is “a big issue. It’s an illiquidity, it has to go away.”

The price gap between bitcoin and bitcoin futures won’t last forever, said Dave Weisberger, CEO of CoinRoutes, a cryptocurrency data and order routing company.

“The futures will ping-pong between premium and discount,” he said.

“I suspect at some point, potentially triggered by a negative event, it will flip. Markets go up and down, and bitcoin has been no different. It’s just been fast.”

At the same time as Bitcoin rallied so Litecoin and Ethereum tumbled…

And then Coinbase broke…

And when it came back online – huge volume spiked Bitcoin back above $17,000

To a new record high on BitStamp…

Saturday:  the real problem with Bitcoin: only 1000 investors worldwide control almost 50% of the market

(courtesy zerohedge)

Saturday:  The Bulgarian government seized bitcoin as the owners of these were from organized crime.  Now this confiscation is now worth $3 billion/enough to wipe out 20% of their debt.

(courtesy zerohedge

Bulgaria Government Shocked To Discover It Owns $3 Billion In Bitcoin

Bulgaria’s GDP is about $52.4 billion (2016), so it is quite a shock that the Bulgarian Government is sitting on an approximate $3 billion worth of Bitcoins seized in an anti-corruption operation back in May.

Putting this into a little more glaring context, Bulgaria is holding 18% of the national debt in bitcoins…

As per @BradyDale, that’s roughly 18% of Bulgaria’s national debt in bitcoin https://twitter.com/coindesk/status/938864041249988613 

Fun fact: today’s bitcoin prices have been interesting enough that there was a significant difference in how much Bulgaria had in USD between me writing this story and my editor editing it.

Bulgarian law enforcement jointly worked with the Southeast European Law Enforcement Center (SELC), a regional organization comprised of 12 member states, to bust a sophisticated organized-crime network, arresting twenty-three Bulgarian nationals and seizing a total of 213,519 bitcoins.

SELC described the organized-crime scheme as the hacking of Bulgarian Custom’s computers and allowing those associated with the group to skip fees for importing goods into the country. To make it work, the group recruited corrupt Customs officers to upload a virus into government machines, so that hackers could establish remote access.

The organized criminal group consisted in Bulgarian nationals having connections in The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Hellenic Republic, Romania and Republic of Serbia. The modus operandi used was recruiting corrupted Customs officers in all involved countries with the purpose to infiltrate a virus in the Customs’ computerized systems. Once the virus installed, from distance, the offenders were able to finalize various transports, as in the Customs’ system appeared that the cargo was already checked and passed.

Further, SELC provided details of how the operation was conducted, involving a large-scale search of “more than 100 addresses, suspects, and vehicles.” Out of the 23 suspects arrested, 5 of them were Bulgarian Customs officers.Police seized “equipment, devices for communication, computers, tablets, and bank documents.”

Bulgarian authorities have searched more than 100 addresses, suspects and vehicles. A large quantity of money was seized, as well as equipment, devices for communication, computers, tablets, bank documents, etc. 23 suspects were arrested, 5 of them acting as Bulgarian Customs officers. As result of this criminal activity the damages recorded by the Customs Agency, only for year 2015, is around 10 million Leva.

Here is where things get interesting… Police also seized 213,519 bitcoins, at the time, worth $500 million. As of writing this article, the amount seized, is now worth approximately 3,676,583,661, according to CoinDesk.

As well, up to now were found in the virtual space bitcoin wallets of the main suspects with a total value of 213,519 bitcoins. As a reference, the value of one bitcoin is rating to 2354 USD. The offenders choose the bitcoin way of investing/saving the money, because it is rather difficult to be tracked and followed.

SELC explained why the criminals used bitcoin,

The offenders choose the bitcoin way of investing/saving the money, because it is rather difficult to be tracked and followed.

What remains a mystery to most, is what the Bulgarian government will do with the seized bitcoins? As mentioned in the beginning, the national debt could certainly be reduced. Have we just discovered a large seller that is ready to pour cold water on the party?

If Bulgaria dump its  we are f*cked!

end
Sunday night: That did not take long.  As soon as CBOE goes live with Bitcoin, we got our first trading halt and then the their website crashes.  Bitcoin rises to $16,700 per coin

CBOE Website Crashes As XBT Trading Begins, First Trading Halt As Bitcoin Price Surges

Update: At precisely 8:31pm ET, the CBOE instituted the first ever XBT trading halt, which lasted for two minutes according to a notice on Cboe’s website. XBT contracts have since resumed trading. As a reminder, the Cboe can halt trading for 2 minutes after 10% swings, and 5 minutes at 20%, an attempt to prevent wild swings.

Notably earlier in the evening they exercised discretion and decided not to halt the XBT trading as the first opening spike occurred…

* * *

The CBOE’s website crashed within minutes of the CBOE open on Sunday – which also marked the launch of the first bitcoin futures to trade on a major exchange…

… while the price of a bitcoin spiked 10% in five minutes as the new contract with the ticker XBT fluctuated wildly.

The embarrassing crash happened as the entire financial world was closely watching the first historic institutionalization of bitcoin:

Bitcoin futures start trading on Cboe, with price hitting as high as 16,660 before slipping below 16,000 https://bloom.bg/2AqUTDX 

Shortly after the initial snafu, the CBOE tweeted that “visitors to cboe.com may find site is performing slower than usual and may at times be temporarily unavailable” due to heavy traffic adding that “all trading systems are operating normally.”

Due to heavy traffic on our website, visitors to http://www.cboe.com  may find that it is performing slower than usual and may at times be temporarily unavailable. All trading systems are operating normally.

“Given the unprecedented interest in Bitcoin, it’s vital we provide clients the trading tools to help them express their views and hedge their exposure,” said Ed Tilly, chairman and CEO of CBOE Global Markets, in a statement earlier this month. Trading in Bitcoin futures will be free through the end of December.

Despite the surging interest in what was taking place on the CBOE, a little over an hour after the launch, some 555 XBT jan 2018 futures contracts had traded – equivalent of roughly $9 million notional…

… and while futures market depth was virtually non-existant in early trading, the bid/ask spread in the orderbook has since shrunk as depth increased, and is now “only” $50.

Indeed, as the tradestation tick chart below shows, as we expected, today’s launch is hardly euphoria bonanza some had expected.

Going further out on the curve, just one March 2018 contract has traded one hour into trading.

What is also notable, is that while at least in early trading, bitcoin futures appeared to be trading with a premium as much as $400 above cash, according to Jared Bilkre, the XBT future was trading around fair value, defined by the Gemini auction price for bitcoin off which the futures are priced.

Still, it remains to be seen if the futures and spot prices will converge, with the spread still will in the hundreds of dollars while volatility refuses to ease.

As a reminder, the CBOE plans to impose trading limits to curb volatility, halting trading for two minutes if prices rise or fall 10%, and a five-minute halt kicks in at 20%. Margins for Cboe bitcoin futures, which will be cleared by Options Clearing Corp., will be at 40% or higher.

So far there have been no futures trading halts.

Meanwhile, the price of spot Bitcoin surged immediately after the 6 p.m. open, climbing about 10%, or $1,500 on GDAX to over $16,200, before giving back much of the early gains…

… as the excitement over this historic moment slowly fades away.

And while for at least one person today’s first day of trading will never be forgotten, the first documented trade appears to have been a short.

I was the first one in the world to trade  futures. Losing trade, but still FIRST!

To which there was a caveat…

I was the first one in the world to trade  futures. Losing trade, but still FIRST! pic.twitter.com/osHCPgIOns

Of course the person I traded with was first too. And they made money so they are prolly a better Twitter follow.

end

Kunstler correctly states that bitcoin has replaced gold as the alarm bell

(Kunstler/GATA)

James Howard Kunstler: Bitcoin has replaced gold as the alarm

 Section: 

2:54p ET Friday, December 8, 2017

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Social critic and novelist James Howard Kunstler writes today that as the cycle of money creation by central banks seems to be winding down, the tax-cutting legislation in Congress is meant to keep pumping money into equities and bonds to avoid a worldwide financial collapse.

Kunstler adds that with its exploding price bitcoin is doing the job gold used to do (though he doesn’t address why gold is no longer doing that job) — sounding the alarm that something is terribly wrong in the world financial system.

“The rush into bitcoin,” Kunstler writes, “represents a loss of faith in matrix of rackets that world banking has become, and a flight to perceived safety in a putative financial instrument beyond the clutches and the lying propaganda of nervous, self-interested governments.”

Kunstler’s commentary is headlined “Stranger Things” and it’s posted at his internet site here:

http://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/stranger-things/

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Max Keiser:  Bitcoin’s success will eventually liberate gold form price suppression

(Max Keiser/Kitco/GATA)

Bitcoin’s success will liberate gold from price suppression, Keiser says

 Section: 

9:50p ET Friday, December 8, 2017

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Interviewed by Daniela Cambone for Kitco News, television show host Max Keiser of Russia Today argues that bitcoin’s success will liberate gold from Wall Street’s price suppression scheme. The interview is seven minutes long and can be viewed at Kitco here:

https://tinyurl.com/y9k2ahzr

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

Swiss monetary metals expert Claudio Grass states that the Russian government knows all about the Western gold price suppression scheme and with the new alliance between Russia and China we will have a real gold standard and the end of uSA dominance
(courtesy Grass/GATA)

Russia-China real gold standard means end of U.S. dollar dominance

 Section: 

9:15a ET Saturday, December 9, 2017

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Interviewing Swiss monetary metals expert Claudio Grass today, Russian government news agency Russia Today signifies again that the Russian government knows all about the Western gold price suppression scheme even if the monetary metals mining industry refuses to acknowledge it. The interview also signifies that Russia, China, and other countries that understand that the United States uses the dollar’s reserve currency status to control the markets and the world are working to restore gold to a superior reserve status.

RT’s interview with Grass is headlined “Russia-China Real Gold Standard Means End of U.S. Dollar Dominance” and it’s posted at RT here:

https://www.rt.com/business/412546-china-russia-gold-standard-dollar/

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Sam Meredith of CNBC also states that the Bitcoin mania will boost efforts to dethrone the USA dollar

(courtesy Meredith/CNBC/GATA)

Bitcoin mania could boost efforts to dethrone dollar, analyst says

 Section: 

By Sam Meredith
CNBC, New York
Friday, December 8, 2017

Bitcoin mania could prove to be the flashpoint for some of the world’s largest oil-producing countries to make a major move against the dollar, according to one commodity analyst.

The world’s most popular cryptocurrency has skyrocketed in recent months, soaring above $19,000 on Thursday on the Coinbase exchange, before notching a huge decrease. Such wild price swings have prompted some of the world’s biggest banks to denounce bitcoin as a fraud, warning investors of a speculative bubble doomed to fail.

However, at the start of the month, U.S. regulators gave the green light for two of the world’s largest futures exchanges to list bitcoin futures. Futures are derivatives, or financial instruments, that obligate a trader to either buy or sell an asset at a specified time and at a specified price. The announcement was viewed by some observers as a vote of confidence for the digital currency’s legitimacy.

“This should bolster the increasing popularity of cryptocurrencies, so much so that they may pose a threat to the role of the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency,” Stephen Brennock, oil analyst at PVM Oil Associates, said in a research note on Friday.

Oil contracts based on the dollar currently dominate global markets, though countries such as China, Russia, and Venezuela have long viewed a move away from the greenback as a strategic priority. That’s because this would allow them to reduce their dependence on the dollar while limiting their exposure to U.S. currency risks and American sanctions.

“The advent of cryptocurrencies, therefore, represents a fresh catalyst for commodity-producing countries wishing to abandon the dollar as a means of payment for oil,” Brennock said. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/08/bitcoin-for-oil-venezuela-russia-could-r…

END

He is nuts: huge owner of bitcoin, Winklevoss sees the cryptocurrency replacing gold.

(courtesy Kharif/Bloomberg/GATA)

Bitcoin billionaire Winklevoss sees the cryptocurrency replacing gold

 Section: 

Bitcoin Billionaire Winklevoss Sees Surge of as Much as 20-Fold

By Olga Kharif
Bloomberg News
Saturday, December 9, 2017

Cameron Winklevoss, thought to be one of the largest holders of bitcoin, thinks the cryptocurrency’s blazing gains this year are just the start. He predicts it will rise as much as 20-fold as investors come to view it as an upgrade to gold.

Wall Street’s plan to launch futures contracts on Sunday, making it easier to bet against the digital currency’s rally in recent months, is making some enthusiasts nervous — but not Winklevoss. He’s one of the famed 36-year-old twins who played an early role in Facebook Inc.’s formation, then dedicated part of their fortune to the cryptocurrency and have since tried to win approval for a bitcoin trading vehicle.

Winklevoss bases his price projection on the market value of gold, which he pegged at about $6 trillion and others calculate at closer to $7.5 trillion. Investors are beginning to embrace the idea that bitcoin, “mined” by computers performing complex calculations, is more portable and divisible than the precious metal, he said.

“We think that bitcoin is a gold disruptor,” Winklevoss said in a telephone interview on Friday, predicting it may yet appreciate by 10 to 20 times its current value. “We think it’s just the beginning. We are definitely holders.” …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-09/a-winklevoss-sees-bit…

END

And Chris Powell reporting on yours truly:

(courtesy Chris Powell/GATA)

Harvey Organ: Why such shorting of Comex gold and silver if there’s none for delivery?

 Section: 

2:04p ET Monday, December 11, 2017

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Gold and silver market analyst Harvey Organ today posts an open letter to the chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, J. Christopher Giancarlo, calling attention to the transfer to London of a huge number of gold and silver futures contracts claimed for delivery on the New York Commodities Exchange.

Organ writes that the transfers, called “exchanges for physicals,” purportedly are allowed in emergencies but have become common occurrences — so common, in fact, that more Comex gold and silver contract deliveries now appear to be made by private contract in London than in New York. This, Organ continues, indicates a shortage of monetary metals in the Comex system, and yet bullion banks seem to be shorting the metals in increasing amounts though they are not available via the Comex.

Organ asks Chairman Giancarlo for an explanation.

Organ’s open letter is posted at his internet site here:

https://harveyorganblog.com/2017/12/11/dec-11-letter-to-commissioner-of-…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

 end



Your early MONDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP AT 6.6182 /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP AT 32.20 POINTS 0.98% / HANG SANG CLOSED UP 325.44 POINTS OR 1.14%
2. Nikkei closed UP 127.65 POINTS OR 0.56% /USA: YEN FALLS TO 113.33

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL MIXED   /USA dollar index FALLS TO 93.80/Euro RISES TO 1.1797

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO . +.050/ GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 113.33/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD FINALLY IN THE POSITIVE/BANK OF JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR YIELD CURVE AS THEY PURCHASE ALL BONDS TO GET TO ZERO RATE!!

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 57.21  and Brent: 63.36

3f Gold UP/Yen DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.286%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.645% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 1.400%

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 4.51?????????????????????

3k Gold at $1251.00 silver at:15.87: 6 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 5/100 in roubles/dollar) 59.18

3m oil into the 57 dollar handle for WTI and 63 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/China forced to do QE!! as it lowers its yuan value to the dollar/GOT A SMALL SIZED REVALUATION NORTHBOUND

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 113.33 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9900 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1675 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to +0.311%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.361% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.749% /

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)

US Futures Hit New All Time High Following Asian Shares Higher; European Stocks, Dollar Mixed

U.S. equity index futures pointed to early gains and fresh record highs, following Asian markets higher, as European shares were mixed and oil was little changed, although it is unclear if anyone noticed with bitcoin stealing the spotlight, after futures of the cryptocurrency began trading on Cboe Global Markets.

In early trading, European stocks struggled for traction, failing to capitalize on gains for their Asian counterparts after another record close in the U.S. on Friday. On Friday, the S&P 500 index gained 0.6% to a new record after the U.S. added more jobs than forecast in November and the unemployment rate held at an almost 17-year low. In Asia, the Nikkei 225 reclaimed a 26-year high as stocks in Tokyo closed higher although amid tepid volumes. Equities also gained in Hong Kong and China. Most European bonds rose and the euro climbed. Sterling slipped as some of the promises made to clinch a breakthrough Brexit deal last week started to fray.

“Strong jobs U.S. data is giving investors reason to buy equities,” said Jonathan Ravelas, chief market strategist at BDO Unibank Inc. “The better-than-expected jobs number supports the outlook that there is a synchronized global economic upturn led by the U.S.”

The dollar drifted and Treasuries steadied as investor focus turned from US jobs to this week’s central bank meetings. Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index pared early gains as losses for telecom and utilities shares offset gains for miners and banks. Tech stocks were again pressured, with Dialog Semiconductor -4.1%, AMS -1.9%, and Temenos -1.7% all sliding. Volume on the Stoxx 600 was about 17% lower than 30-day average at this time of day, with trading especially thin in Germany and France.

The dollar dipped 0.1 percent to 93.801 against a basket of major currencies, pulling away from a two-week high hit on Friday.

“I think this is being driven by the softer earnings data we saw in the payrolls report on Friday which reinforces the Fed’s current policy dilemma, where yes we have solid growth but so far a lack of inflation pressure,” said MUFG currency strategist Lee Hardman. “It was a continuation of the ‘Goldilocks’ conditions, with stronger global growth but little inflation pressure, no strong pressure on central banks to speed up the pace of tightening.”

Meanwhile, the yen fell to a one-month low against the dollar on expectations solid U.S. data will justify the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this week. The euro inched up 0.1% against a stronger dollar to $1.1791, holding above its nearly three-week low of $1.1730 plumbed on Friday, ahead of a European Central Bank policy meeting this week at which rates are expected to be kept on hold.

Despite the strong US data, JPM calculated that the Fed has roughly 6 more 25bps hikes before its tightening finally hits capital markets, suggesting that the bullish sentiment may continue for some time.

Asian equities rose after better-than-expected U.S. jobs data bolstered investor optimism for global economic growth prospects. Two stocks rose for each that declined on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index, which rose 0.7% at 170.28.  Japan’s shares climbed, sending the Nikkei 225 Stock Average to its highest since 1992. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average climbed to a 26-year high as the yen slid to a one-month low. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index and South Korea’s Kospi advanced.

Consumer stocks led Chinese equities higher, while small caps got a boost from reports that new asset management rules would be delayed and that President Xi has called for a national big data strategy and for innovation in the technology, pushing big data-linked firms higher. Beijing Orient National Communication Science & Technology Co. surges by 10% daily limit, while Hand Enterprise Solutions Co. +5.4%. Small caps were also boosted by news that China may extend a deadline for financial institutions to comply with new rules on asset management products.

“The reported delay for financial institutions to comply with new asset management products rules pushed up the market, especially small caps that are more subject to liquidity risks as they would be dumped first by such products amid any policy tightening,” said Wang Chen, Shanghai- based partner with XuFunds Investment Management Co. “A possible delay, even if just for one year or so, will alleviate the selling pressure on small cap stocks”

Shares in Hong Kong were also stronger. The CSI 300 Index advanced 1.7% at the close, with the gauge gaining 2.5% over the past two sessions, the most since the end of August. The Shanghai Composite Index added 1% after the PBoC resumed liquidity operations, although a miss on inflation data over the weekend somewhat capped the advances; the small-cap ChiNext measure jumped 1.4%. In Hong Kong, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index added 1.5% with the broader Hang Seng Index climbing 1.2%; both are coming off two straight weeks of losses.  Strength in commodity-related stocks in Australia kept the ASX index afloat, while focus was on AWE shares which rallied over 15% after Co. was subject to a take-over offer. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s benchmark index plunged 2.4 percent, the most in two years, after Public Security Ministry said in a Dec. 8 statement that the police arrested Dinh La Thang, a senior Communist Party official and former Politburo member, for alleged wrongdoing

The Bloomberg dollar index looked to snap a five-day rally as Treasuries edged up before the two-day FOMC meeting kicks off. The pound reversed Asia-session gains after London stepped in as fragile Brexit sentiment prevailed. The appointment of a new RBNZ chief, seen as less of a dove, boosted the kiwi, while the Norwegian krone led losses on the back of an inflation miss. Bonds and European equities edged higher.

In overnight geopolitical developments, South Korea, Japan and US began joint missile tracking exercises today. North Korea stated that UN envoy expressed a willingness to reduce tensions. However, over the weekene Yonhap also reported that North Korea warned the US on Sunday over the possible use of a naval blockade, which it said would be considered as a “declaration of war.”.

Meanwhile in Europe, UK PM May will insist that “nothing is agreed until everything is agreed” on the terms of Brexit after the Irish government claimed that last week’s preliminary deal is binding. This has led the Irish Government to hit back at a British government suggestion that a deal reached on the post-Brexit Border was a “statement of intent” rather than “a legally enforceable
thing”, which in turn spooked cable and Gilts. UK Brexit Secretary Davis suggested he wants a bespoke deal with the EU and is seeking an overarching agreement with no tariffs. Further to this, The Times report that Britain could be forced to accept swathes of Brussels red tape if it is to secure the extensive trade deal that David Davis is championing, according to senior European sources.

Over in the US, Senator Collins reiterated she is unsure if she will support the final version of the tax bill and wants to see it first.

As noted above, market focus returns to central banks this week with the Fed expected to raise rates at its meeting on Wednesday and the European Central Bank to reveal details of plans to taper asset purchases on Thursday. The Bank of England and Swiss National Bank also meet. With the world economy heading into its strongest period since 2011, Wall Street economists are telling investors to brace for the biggest tightening of monetary policy in more than a decade.

Meanwhile, as discussed overnight, the big highlight was the brand new Bitcoin future, the XBT, which surged as much as 20%, rising just shy of $19,000.

The first bitcoin futures began trading on Sunday at 6 p.m. (6.00 p.m. ET) on CBOE Global Markets Inc’s CBOE Futures Exchange. The futures are cash-settled contracts based on the auction price of bitcoin in U.S. dollars on the Gemini Exchange, which is owned and operated by virtual currency entrepreneurs Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss. The most-traded futures contract opened at $15,460 before leaping to a high of $18,700 – a gain of 21 percent. They last stood at $17,770.

“Regardless of what side of the debate you’re on, what’s undeniable is that the current euphoria and the extreme levels of price volatility offer the brave of heart some excellent speculative opportunities,” Stephen Innes, head of Asian trading at currency broker Oanda said in a note to clients.

Elsewhere, oil declined to around $57 a barrel as U.S. drillers expanded the crude rig count to a three-month high. Bitcoin futures began trading in Chicago and at one point jumped as much as 25 percent.

Yields across the world dipped, with the rate on 10Y TSYs down less than one basis point to 2.37%; German 10Y Bunds fell one basis point to 0.30%, while Britain’s 10Y gilts decreased 4 bps to 1.237% on renewed Brexit concerns; meanwhile Japan’s 10-year yield declined less than one basis point to 0.05%.

Economic data include job openings and labor turnover, New York Fed consumer expectations survey. KMG Chemicals and Quanex Building are among companies reporting earnings.

Bulletin Headline Summary

  • European equities trade modestly higher with the FTSE 100 outperforming its peers alongside the softer GBP
  • The USD index is back down through 94.000 and unwinding some of its recent recovery gains, aided by last Friday’s US jobs data
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US 3yr and 10yr auctions

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 2,656.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 unchanged at 389.26
  • Brent futures little changed at $63.44/bbl
  • MSCI Asia up 0.7% to 170.28
  • MSCI Asia ex Japan up 0.7% to 553.19
  • Nikkei up 0.6% to 22,938.73
  • Topix up 0.5% to 1,813.34
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.1% to 28,965.29
  • Shanghai Composite up 1% to 3,322.20
  • Sensex up 0.6% to 33,433.04
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.07% to 5,998.28
  • Kospi up 0.3% to 2,471.49
  • Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,250.51
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.1% to 93.78
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.9 bps to 0.298%
  • Euro up 0.2% to $1.1793
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 2.6 bps to 1.388%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.8 bps to 1.409%

Top Overnight News

  • Donald Trump will deliver a closing argument for the proposed Republican tax overhaul in a speech on Wednesday, said a person familiar with the matter
  • With the world economy heading into its strongest period since 2011, Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. predict average interest rates across advanced economies will climb to at least 1 percent next year in what would be the largest increase since 2006
  • Japanese companies that raise wages could see as much as a 20% reduction in their corporate tax burden, Nikkei reports, citing government tax proposal
  • The fragile truce Theresa May struck with her warring cabinet and the European Union last week was already being tested on Monday, as some of the promises made to clinch a breakthrough Brexit deal started to fray
  • U.K. Environment Secretary Michael Gove and Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson will demand that Prime Minister Theresa May presses for a hard Brexit when the U.K. starts trade negotiations with Brussels, as payback for support for her deal last week, Sunday Times says, citing unidentified people
  • Britain wants a trade deal with the EU that includes the best parts of the bloc’s agreements with Japan, Canada and South Korea, along with financial services, Brexit Secretary David Davis said
  • OPEC and its global allies including Russia may end their production cuts before 2019 if the crude market re-balances by June, Kuwait’s oil minister said
  • President Emmanuel Macron said he doesn’t intend to immediately revive past French Middle East peace initiatives, as Donald Trump’s administration stood behind his decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and move the U.S. embassy there
  • Bitcoin futures surged as much as 26 percent during their debut session on Cboe Global Markets Inc.’s exchange, triggering two temporary trading halts meant to cool volatility

Asia equity markets began the week mostly positive after last Friday’s gains on Wall St and better than expected US NFP jobs data, although the upside in Asia-Pac bourses were contained ahead of this week’s central bank-heavy roster. ASX 200 (+0.1%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.6%) were higher with strength in commodity-related stocks in Australia just about keeping the index afloat, while focus was on AWE shares which rallied over 15% after Co. was subject to a take-over offer. Hang Seng (+0.6%) and Shanghai Comp. (+1.1%) were also in the green after the PBoC resumed liquidity operations, although a miss on inflation data over the weekend somewhat capped the advances. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lower amid the positive risk tone in the region and absence of the BoJ in the market under its massive bond buying program. Chinese CPI (Nov) Y/Y 1.7% vs. Exp. 1.8% (Prev. 1.9%). Chinese PPI (Nov) Y/Y 5.8% vs. Exp. 5.9% (Prev. 6.9%) PBoC injected CNY 40bln via 7-day reverse repos and CNY 40bln via 28-day reverse repos. PBoC set CNY mid-point at 6.6152 (Prev. 6.6218)

Top Asian News

  • China Said to Weigh Delay in Asset-Management Product Rules
  • Chinese Regulator Cracks Down on Booming Hedge-Fund Industry
  • HSBC Is Said to Step Up Scrutiny of China’s Indebted HNA Group
  • China Appliance King Said to Eye IPO of $12 Billion Property Arm
  • Malaysia Central Bank Has More Policy Options, Governor Says

European equities (Eurostoxx 50 +0.1%) have kicked the week off on the front-foot in a continuation of the sentiment late last week on Wall Street and overnight during Asia-Pac trade. European specific newsflow remains on the light side with the latest Brexit-related headlines questioning PM May’s commitment to Friday’s deal on the Irish border unable to derail sentiment. In fact, the FTSE 100 (+0.7%) is currently out-performing its peers largely on a currency basis amid recent GBP softness with GBP/USD below 1.3400. The FSTE has also been bolstered by Hong Kong-exposed banks with index-heavyweight HSBC (+1.9%) and Standard Chartered (+1.8%) both near the top of the leaderboard in-fitting with some of the price action seen overnight; financial names subsequently outperform. Gilts have extended early gains to 55 ticks at a marginal new 124.70 high, and Brexit-related impulses appear to be encouraging buyers rather than anything more fundamental (like Rightmove’s weak house price report overnight). Doubts about the actual deal that has been struck to move forward to phase 2 of negotiations with the EU continue to underpin the 10 year UK benchmark and undermine PM May who continues to face opposition and challenges to her position (both internally and externally). Of course, thin December/year end trading conditions are impacting and exacerbating price action, while Bunds are deriving some indirect support to trade up to 163.61 (+13 ticks vs -11 ticks at one stage) and US Treasuries are inching up too. However, German debt looks reluctant to get too carried away ahead of Thursday’s ECB policy meeting that should underscore more upbeat assessments via the presser and Staff forecasts ahead of January’s QE downsizing, and the impending bond-buying suspension for the 2017-2018 turn. On the US front, 3 and 10 year supply to consider and make room for if not a concession, and then the FOMC (hike anticipated), SEP and dot plots. Back to Liffe, some short end flow via a 10k lot sale of Mar19 Short Sterling futures at 99.100, but the 3 month contract remains bid at the price.

Top European News

  • As Brexit Moves On, Poland Risks Becoming EU’s Real Rogue State
  • HSBC Says the DOJ to Seek End of Deferred Prosecution Agreement

In FX, GBP is the main laggard in the G10 space with Cable unable to maintain 1.3400 or above ground on latest Brexit-related uncertainty (Ireland apparently at odds with the UK Government over the legalities of the border agreement), and EURGBP crossing 0.8800 to the upside again. The USD index is back down through 94.000 and unwinding some of its recent recovery gains, aided by last Friday’s US jobs data, with ongoing uncertainty on tax reforms and a vote on the reconciled proposals now not expected until December 22. NZD remains the standout G10 gainer, with a 1%+ rise vs the Greenback on the appointment of ex-RBNZ Deputy Governor and now CEO of the NZ Superannuation Fund, Orr as new RBNZ chief with effect from March 27th, 2018.

In commodities, WTI and Brent crude futures trade marginally softer with the Kuwait oil minister suggesting that OPEC and non-OPEC nations could consider an exit strategy before the next scheduled meeting in June. As a reminder, Friday’s Baker Hughes data showed an increase in the oil rig count from 749 to 751; an increase for the third consecutive week. In metals markets, gold is slightly firmer despite the largely upbeat sentiment with prices likely swayed by the broadly softer USD. Elsewhere, Asia-Pac trade saw a recovery in Chinese steel futures alongside the nation’s output curbing efforts whilst copper was relatively choppy overnight. Kuwait Oil Minister stated that oil output reductions could stop in June if the market rebalances.

US Event Calendar

  • 10am: JOLTS Job Openings, est. 6,100, prior 6,093
  • 11am: New York Fed to Release Survey of Consumer Expectations

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

With Christmas Day now only being a fortnight away, there’s likely to be one last hoorah this week with regards to activity given a busy week of data, central bank meetings and the post-Brexit divorce agreement European Council meeting at the end of the week. The highlight is undoubtedly the almost completely nailed on FOMC rate hike on Wednesday and the last Yellen press conference. With regards to the ECB meeting on Thursday, the focus will be on the latest staff macroeconomic forecasts with the first outlook for 2020 due to be revealed. It’s also worth keeping an  eye on Draghi’s press conference and particularly if he addresses some of the internal divisions which have been hinted at on forward guidance. The BoE meeting should be the least exciting of the three (Thursday) with any discussion on what the Brexit breakthrough on Friday might mean for policy being the most interesting feature. As an aside it was fascinating to read the FT this morning to see that any incoming Labour Government might look to relocate most of the BoE to Birmingham. An interesting proposal to say the least!!

Returning to Brexit, the EC meeting scheduled for Thursday and Friday will shed some light on how quickly we can get a transitional agreement for the UK and how contingent it is on talks over the future relationship. It is generally perceived that the UK needs this ASAP and before March at the very latest to ease the worries of businesses. So this week’s meeting is important for the mood music. One of the interesting things about Brexit is that of the few polls that have been done in recent months, it’s not clear you would get a materially different result today if there was a fresh referendum. Views are pretty entrenched. Also with Martin Schulz last week encouraging the continent to aim for a “United States of Europe” by 2025, and with Macron on a similar page, if Europe is going to go in this direction (a big if I appreciate) then the U.K. would collectively never agree to be part of this. So as painful as Brexit might be in the short-term if negotiations go badly, it’s possible that the two areas would eventually deviate economically anyway. So maybe we’re just accelerating that move. Just food for thought.

With regards to the data this week, the most significant release is the November CPI report in the US on Wednesday. The consensus is for a +0.4% mom jump in the headline and +0.2% mom rise in the core. Base effects are expected to hold the annual core rate at +1.8% yoy however. Staying with inflation we have the final November CPI revisions for the UK (Tuesday), Germany (Wednesday) and France (Thursday), as well as US PPI (Tuesday) and retail sales (Thursday). In China we’re also due to receive the November retail sales, fixed asset investment and industrial production data on Thursday. Also due this week are the flash December PMIs in Europe and the US on Thursday. Expectations are for the manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone to hold at the lofty levels of around 60. So given all the above be careful to keep some brain cells active after all those Xmas parties and lunches.

Over in the US, President Trump is expected to give a closing argument for the tax reforms this Wednesday. He sounded relatively upbeat on Sunday when he tweeted “getting closer and closer on the tax cut bill… House and Senate working very hard and smart”. Elsewhere, the reconciliation of the House and Senate tax bill continues with the timing broadly unchanged, which is to have the finalised bill ready for Trump’s signature before year end.

Over the weekend, China’s November PPI was in line at 5.8% yoy but moderated from last month’s 6.9%, while CPI was a tad softer at 1.7% yoy (vs. 1.8% expected), mainly due to faster price declines in the food sector. This morning in Asia, key bourses are all trending higher. China’s CSI 300 (+0.94%), the Hang Seng (+0.57%), Nikkei (+0.36%) and Kospi (+0.29%) are all up as we type.

Now briefly recapping markets performance from last Friday. US bourses  strengthened 0.4%-0.6% following a nonfarm payrolls beat and Congress voting to avert a partial government shutdown. The S&P rose 0.55% to a fresh high, with gains broad based and led by the health care and telco sectors. European markets were also all higher, with gains led by the FTSE (+1.0%) following the Brexit break through, while the Stoxx 600 (+0.73%) and DAX (+0.83%) also advanced. The VIX fell for the fourth consecutive day and is now below 10 again (-5.71% to 9.58).

Government bonds softened with core 10y bond yields up 1-3bp (UST & Bunds +1.3bp; Gilts +2.6bp) while peripheral bond yields outperformed. Turning to currencies, the US dollar index gained for the fifth consecutive day (+0.11%, +1.1% for the week), while the Euro was flat and Sterling fell 0.62%. In commodities, WTI oil rose 1.18% and precious metals strengthened (Gold +0.1%; Silver +0.87%). Other base metals were little changed (Copper flat; Zinc +0.59%; Aluminium +0.28%).

Away from markets, our Chinese economists see five key structural challenges for China over the next five years, including: i) global interest rates will likely rise, ii) the labour force in China is shrinking, iii) property and infrastructure investments face constraints as growth drivers, iv) financial risks have reached alarming levels and v) environmental constraints are also clear. The team takes a closer look at these factors and expects GDP growth will likely slow to 6.3% in 2018 and 2019, with risks balanced. Elsewhere, another round of regulatory tightening has started to contain financial leverage and property speculation. On the other side, the main risks to growth outlook come from inflation and interest rates. The team thinks the market underestimates the risk of inflation in 2018 and 2019.

Over in Germany, SPD’s leader Mr Schulz noted his party won’t “shy away from its responsibilities” and “we’re going into open ended talks to figure out how to bring this country out of this difficult situation”. His official meeting with Ms Merkel will start this Wednesday.

Finally back onto Bitcoin. The New Zealand central bank’s acting governor Spencer noted that Bitcoin “looks remarkably like a bubble forming to me…with a bubble, you never know how far it’s going to go before it comes down”. That said, he also noted that “digital currencies…are a real and serious proposition for the future…but not the sort that we see in bitcoin”. Elsewhere, futures on Bitcoin have started trading today at CBOE and have already seen a 25% rally and two trading halts. Futures trading is likely to add even more speculative interest to this story.

We wrap up with other data releases from Friday. In the US, the November change in nonfarm payrolls was above market at 228k (vs. 195k expected). While there was a 17k downward revision to the prior month, the strength of payrolls was still evident given a 6- month average gain of 178k – the fastest pace of growth seen since February. The unemployment rate was in line at 4.1% and remained at a 17 year low. However, the average hourly earnings growth was a tad softer at 0.2% mom (vs. 0.3% expected) and 2.5% yoy (vs. 2.7% expected), and note that the prior reading was revised down by 0.1ppt. Elsewhere, the December University of Michigan consumer sentiment index was below market at 96.8 (vs. 99 expected),  but in line with the average for the year and the one year-ahead expected inflation rose 0.3pts to 2.8% (a level not seen since April last year). Finally, the final reading of October wholesale inventories was -0.5% mom (vs. -0.4% expected). Factoring in above, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model now estimates 4Q GDP growth at 2.9% saar (vs. 3.2% previous).

In Europe, France’s October IP was substantially above market at 1.9% mom (vs. -0.1% expected) and 5.5% yoy (vs. 2.9% expected), partly due to stronger manufacturing at 2.7% mom. In the UK, October IP was in line and flat for the month, but prior revisions led annual growth to be higher at 3.6% yoy (vs. 3.5% expected). Elsewhere, manufacturing production was slightly above at 0.1%  mom (vs. 0% expected) and 3.9% yoy (vs. 3.8% expected). Finally, the October trade deficit narrowed to -£1.4bn (vs. -£3bln), with exports up 9.5% yoy and imports up 9.6% yoy.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late SUNDAY night/MONDAY morning: Shanghai closed UP 32.20 points or .98% /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 325.44 pts or 1.14% / The Nikkei closed UP 127.65 POINTS OR 0.56%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.07%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.6182/Oil DOWN to 57.21 dollars per barrel for WTI and 63.36 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED. ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.6182. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST  THE ONSHORE YUAN AT 6.6203 //ONSHORE YUAN STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR/OFF SHORE STRONGER TO THE DOLLAR/. THE DOLLAR (INDEX) IS  WEAKER AGAINST ALL MAJOR CURRENCIES. CHINA IS VERY HAPPY TODAY.

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

NORTH KOREA/South Korea/Russia

Russia rebukes USA for continual military drills in the Korean Peninsula

(courtesy zerohedge)

Russia Rebukes US For Sowing “Regional Instability” As Military Drills Begin

The latest round of military drills involving the US, Japan and South Korea began their latest set of tracking drills on Monday, DW reported, citing sources in the South Korean military.

The drills – which are meant for “practicing tracking an object and sharing information on it among the three countries” – were being held in waters off the coast of Japan, according to Japan’s Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera.

The US and its regional allies are stepping up their military drills in response to North Korea’s decision to test-launch the Hwasong-15, a new ICBM that US intelligence believes has the capacity to strike Washington, DC, as well as nearly any other part of the US – though the degree of accuracy remains questionable.

In response to drills held last week, North Korea warned that it is “ready for nuclear war” with the US. Though its threats have long rung hollow, US, South Korean and Japanese intelligence officials say that the North might soon attain the ability to load a nuclear warhead on its newest ICBM, which would enable it to launch a nuclear strike – or possibly an equally devastating EMP attack.

The exercises are the sixth since June 2016. Two US ships and one each from Japan and South Korea are involved. Meanwhile, the US’s Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) has been deployed in South Korea, infuriating Chinese leaders, who claim there’s little distinction between a missile-defense system and a missile launcher. According to DW, Beijing also worries that THAAD’s radar can peer deep into Chinese territory, compromising its own security.

Following the North’s November test, the US warned Pyongyang that its leadership would be “utterly destroyed” if war erupted. Since then, the Pentagon has staged several shows of force after North Korean military tests.

The US has been pressuring China and other countries to cut diplomatic and trade relations with the North – part of an international effort to squeeze Pyongyang by cutting off cash flows received from its illegal businesses, which are widely believed to be funding its weapons program.

Unfortunately, the US’s efforts have apparently done little to curb trade with the North. As we pointed out yesterday, a new report from the Institute for Science and International Security has found that 49 countries violated sanctions on North Korea to varying degrees between March 2014 and September 2017.

As it, too, steps up pressure on its neighbor, South Korea announced Sunday that it would impose new sanctions on 20 institutions and a dozen individuals in North Korea, barring any financial transactions between them and South Koreans.

“This unilateral sanction will prevent illegal funds flowing to North Korea and contribute to reinforce international communities’ sanctions against North Korea,” South Korea’s Finance Ministry said in a statement.

The US has insisted on continuing with its provocative military drills despite widespread condemnation from the international community. A United Nations envoy warned of the grave risk of a miscalculation that results in nuclear annihilation, and urged Pyongyang to keep the channels of communication open after a rare visit to the isolated state last week.

Meanwhile, a Russian military general on Monday noted that the exercises only raise hysteria and create more instability in the region, according to Reuters.

Russian Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces General Valery Gerasimov, issued his warning in Tokyo as the United States, Japan and South Korea began a two-day exercise to practice tracking missiles amid rising tension over North Korea’s weapons programs.

General Valery Gerasimov

“Carrying out military training in regions surrounding North Korea will only heighten hysteria and make the situation unstable,” Gerasimov said at the beginning of a meeting with Japanese Minister of Defense Itsunori Onodera.

Following last week’s exercises, North Korea warned that the outbreak of war, at this point, is “an established fact”.

3 b  JAPAN

c) REPORT ON CHINA

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

A short but sweet commentary from Graham Summers as he illustrates how the next crisis will be a default/(or massive printing )

He describes how we now have a huge bond bubble with central banks holding over 10 trillion of these bonds.  Once interest rates rise, the bond bubble bursts which will cause our central banks to lose considerable amounts of money. In order to shore up their balance sheet they will need to print more. Bitcoin is signalling this to us

(courtesy Graham Summers/Phoenix Capital)

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:00 am

Euro/USA 1.1794 UP .0026/ REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ SPAIN VS CATALONIA/REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:/TRUMP HEALTH CARE DEFEAT//ITALIAN REFERENDUM DEFEAT/AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/ /USA FALLING INTEREST RATES AGAIN/HOUSTON FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES  ALL MIXED 

USA/JAPAN YEN 113.33 UP 0.20(Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/SIGNALS U TURN WITH INCREASED NEGATIVITY IN NIRP/JAPAN OUT OF WEAPONS TO FIGHT ECONOMIC DISASTER/

GBP/USA 1.3360 DOWN .0015 (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED

THERESA MAY FORMS A NEW GOVERNMENT/STARTS BREXIT TALKS/MAY IN TROUBLE WITH HER OWN PARTY/

USA/CAN 1.2847 UP .0003(CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA)

Early THIS MONDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 26 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1797; / Last night the Shanghai composite CLOSED UP 32.20 POINTS OR .98% / Hang Sang CLOSED UP 325.44 POINTS OR 1.14% /AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.07% / EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED MIXED

The NIKKEI: this MONDAY morning CLOSED UP 127.65 POINTS OR 0.56%

Trading from Europe and Asia:
1. Europe stocks OPENED MIXED 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / : Hang Sang CLOSED UP 325.44 POINTS OR 1.14% / SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 32.20 POINTS OR .98% /Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.07% /Nikkei (Japan)CLOSED UP 127.65 POINTS OR 0.56%

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1250.15

silver:$15.86

Early MONDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.361% !!! DOWN 3 IN POINTS from FRIDAY night in basis points and it is trading JUST BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)

The 30 yr bond yield 2.749 DOWN 3 IN BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 93.80 DOWN 10 CENT(S) from FRIDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers MONDAY MORNING

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And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS \1 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.795% DOWN 1 in basis point(s) yield from FRIDAY

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.050% DOWN 2/5  in basis point yield from FRIDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.4013% UP 1  IN basis point yield from FRIDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.655 UP 1 POINTS in basis point yield from FRIDAY

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 24 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: +.293%  DOWN 1 IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY

END

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IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY

Closing currency crosses for MONDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1796 UP.0028 (Euro UP 28 Basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/

USA/Japan: 113.36 UP 0.038(Yen DOWN 4 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3353 DOWN 0.0023( POUND DOWN 23 BASIS POINTS)

USA/Canada 1.2855 UP  .0010 Canadian dollar DOWN 10 Basis points AS OIL ROSE TO $57.93

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This afternoon, the Euro was UP 28 to trade at 1.1796

The Yen fell to 113.36 for a LOSS of 4 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE

The POUND FELL BY 23 basis points, trading at 1.3353/

The Canadian dollar FELL by 10 basis points to 1.2855/ WITH WTI OIL RISING TO : $57.93

The USA/Yuan closed AT 6.6180
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.050% DOWN 2/5  IN BASIS POINTS / yield/
Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 1 IN basis points from MONDAY at 2.369% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.7574 DOWN 2  in basis points on the day /

Your closing USA dollar index, 93.77 DOWN 13 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/BREAKS RESISTANCE OF 92.00

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for MONDAY: 1:00 PM EST

London: CLOSED UP 59,52 POINTS OR 0.80%
German Dax :CLOSED DOWN 30,05 POINTS OR 0.23%
Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 12.26 POINTS OR 0.23%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 14.20 POINTS OR 0.14%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 82.20 POINTS OR 0.36%

The Dow closed UP 56.87 POINTS OR 0.23%

NASDAQ WAS closed UP 35.00 Points OR 0.51% 4.00 PM EST

WTI Oil price; 57.96 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 64.61 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE CROSS: 58.90 DOWN 22/100 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 22 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS TO +.293% FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:30 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:$57.99

BRENT: $64.72

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.389% (ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 2.70% BLOWS UP THE GLOBE)

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.776%

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1769 up .0006

USA/JAPANESE YEN:113.55 up 0.217

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 93.96 UP 6 cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.3340 : down 36 POINTS FROM FRI NIGHT

Canadian dollar: 1.2856 up 11 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: +0.293%

END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

Stocks Soar To Most-Overbought In 22 Years But Bitcoin Futures Debut Dominate

Tyler Durden's picture

Bitcoin futures are here…

Small Caps and Trannies were today’s biggest losers as Nasdaq led…

The S&P 500 has not been this overbought since 1995…

VIX briefly topped 10 after the NYC bomb explosion…but was clubbed into the close..

Utes ramped oddly in the afternoon but Energy stocks and Tech were best…

High-Tax stocks underperformed Low-Tax stocks…

But while some were paying attention to stocks, most eyes were glued to Bitcoin futures…

And as Bitcoin futures outperformed spot, bitcoin spot continued to outperform gold dramatically…

With Bitcoin soaring to a record high over $17,250 as gold dropped 0.5% today…

But it’s also worth noting that as Gold futures legged lower so Bitcoin futures was modestly bid

Away from ‘virtual’ currencies, the dollar (another faith-based currency) managed to rally back to unchanged after some early weakness…

Treasury yields were all higher on the day with the short-end underperforming…

Which meant the yield curve flattening continues…

Despite an unchanged day in the dollar, PMs were slammed and Crude and copper bid…

Finally, we note that recent weeks have seen the obscene premium to NAV for Bitcoin Trust collapse as the underlying NAV has caught uo…

From 140% premium to just 13% now…

end

ISIS inspired pipe bomb in NEW York at the Bus Terminal.  Suspect arrested

(courtesy zerohedge)

ISIS-Inspired Muslim Suspect In Custody After NYC Pipe Bomb Terrorist Attack: Live Feed

Live feed:

https://www.facebook.com/plugins/video.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FDailyMail%2Fvideos%2F3177844822275244%2F&show_text=0&width=500

* * *

Update 3: The New York Post reports, an ISIS-inspired Bangladeshi national set off an homemade explosive device at the Port Authority Bus Terminal subway station Monday morning, law enforcement sources said.

The suspected bomber – a 27-year-old who lived in Brooklyn – had wires attached to him and was armed with a five-inch metal pipe bomb and battery pack as he walked through the Manhattan transit hub, sources said.

Police took the man into custody.

Former NYPD Commissioner Bill Bratton told MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” that the man was inspired by ISIS and originally from Bangladesh.

There was at least one injury and the wounded was the suspect. The man, who was seriously injured, was taken to Bellevue Hospital.

Investigators briefly spoke to the man, who told them he made the explosive device at the electrical company where he works.


* * *

Update 2 : The Terrorist in NYC attack is injured and in custody. Bomb exploded prematurely. The suspect is reportedly a Muslim man from Brooklyn, east Flatbush area, Investigators are on the way to his home, for further investigations

* * *

A clip of the moment an alleged pipe bomb exploded at Port Authority around 6:30am on Monday morning has been released.

BREAKING VIDEO: MOMENT OF EXPLOSION AT TIMES SQUARE SUBWAY STATION

Meanwhile, according to Sarah Sanders, president Trump has been briefed on the explosion.

Also, according to a report that conflicts with previous news, the suspect’s explosive vest went off prematurely at Port Authority, resulting in the death of the suspect.

However this has been promptly refuted, and we now know that the attack is being treated as a possible terror attack:

BREAKING UPDATE: The suspect who was wearing some kind of device and caused the explosion has died.

UPDATE: The NYPD says the suspect, still in custody, has not died.

BREAKING NEWS: NYPD and FBI are investigating the explosion in Manhattan as a possible terror attack.

UPDATE: the suspect is man from Brooklyn, east Flatbush area, Investigators are on the way to his home, for further investigations

UPDATE: The NYPD says the suspect, still in custody, has not died.

BREAKING NEWS: NYPD and FBI are investigating the explosion in Manhattan as a possible terror attack.

* * *

The latest developments:

  • PORT AUTHORITY BUS TERMINAL EXPLOSION CAUSED BY PIPE BOMB. FEW INJURIES, SUSPECT IN CUSTODY: ABC7
  • FEW INJURIES AFTER THE EXPLOSION TOOK PLACE BELOW GROUND AT PORT AUTHORITY
  • POLICE SOURCE TELL NY1 SUSPECT WAS WEARING AN EXPLOSIVE VEST: BBG
  • PORT AUTHORITY SUSPECT HAD POSSIBLE SECOND DEVICE; IN CUSTODY: PIX11
  • THE POLICE HAVE VIDEO AND ARE CONFIDENT THE SITUATION IS CONTAINED

BREAKING NEWS: NYPD INVESTIGATING AN EXPLOSION AT THE WEST 44 ST SUBWAY STAION. LEVEL 3 MOBILIZATION BEING CALLED. PERP IN CUSTODY.

U/D BREAKING: SUSPECT IS WEARING WEARING AN EXPLOSIVE VEST AT WEST 42 St & 8TH AVE. BOMB SQUAD ON SCENE.

The person in custody has been confirmed by CNN:

BREAKING: New York Officials confirm there has been an explosion at 42nd and 8th in pic.twitter.com/XU2amcgSJl

One person is in custody relating to the incident near Port Authority in NYC, @brynnCNN reports pic.twitter.com/TPB5egl7Li

View image on Twitter

As the Daily Mail notes, the first explosion was felt around 6:30am Monday morning in a Subway station near the Port Authority bus terminal in Midtown Manhattan, just blocks from Times Square.

The FDNY said they located a device near the passageway between the A and 1 trains, and that it’s possible this was a terror attack.  Police have taken one man into custody who was wearing a device with wires on him.  Law enforcement agencies have responded to the scene and have set up a perimeter around the area.

* * *

One person is reportedly in custody after an underground explosion – which some speculated as a pipe bomb – took place at the Port Authority Bus Terminal.

According to the NYPD News twitter feed, the New York Police Department responded to reports of an explosion of unknown origin at Port Authority, located 42nd Street and 8th Ave, in Manhattan, while the A, C and E line are being evacuated at this time.

The NYPD is responding to reports of an explosion of unknown origin at 42nd Street and 8th Ave, . The A, C and E line are being evacuated at this time. Info is preliminary, more when available.

According to NBC News, the explosion has been confirmed…

JUST IN: New York City officials confirm there has been an explosion near 42nd street and 8th Avenue, cause not yet clear

Good Morning America confirmed both the pipe bomb and custody aspects of the story.

LIVE: @ABC News Special Report: Possible pipe bomb detonated in passageway below ground at Port Authority in NYC, police sources say. http://abcn.ws/VzbAwQ 

Witness describe a “stampede” following the explosion at Port Authority.

I am safe in my office. Had to sprint from port authority due to an explosion. everyone be safe

holy fuck. just was stuck in a running stampede at port authority bus terminal due to bomb scare. cops EVERYWHERE

end

Southern California fires rage on as 230,000 acres is involved in this catastrophe.  The fire comes the 5th largest in state history

(courtesy zerohedge)

Santa Barbara Evacuates As Uncontained 230,000 Acre Thomas Fire Becomes Fifth Largest In State History

Santa Barbara officials expanded evacuations Sunday as the Thomas Fire continues to rage through the Southern California county – burning over 230,000 acres to make it the fifth largest in the state since California began keeping records in 1932. Overall, approximately 8,500 firefighters are battling six wildfires across Southern California.

UPDATE: Containment for  DROPS to just 10% as the blaze grows 230,000 acres. 790 structures destroyed. Dramatic new video of flames is both mesmerizing and terrifying. More at 10pm @KSL5TV@KSLcom

The #ThomasFire fire grew by over 50,000 acres throughout the day, with containment dropping from 15% to 10% – resulting in mandatory evacuations for approximately 5,000 Santa Barbara County residents, while 30,000 more were told to prepare to leave, bringing the total number of evacuated or sheltered citizens to just under 95,000.

 raging again, containment droped from 15% to 10% and it’s close to quarter of million acrs

790 structures have been destroyed and 18,000 remain threatened by the Thomas fire. The immediate concern is the town of Carpinteria – with the fire quickly moving west above the city chock full of dry vegetation that hasn’t burned in nearly 100 years, said Steve Swindle, spokesman for the Ventura County Fire Department.

The fuels in there are thick and they’re dead so they’re very receptive to fire” –Steve Swindle

About 30 minutes south on Hwy 10, the blaze destroyed 524 structures and damaged 125 in the city of Ventura, with an additional 266 structures destroyed and 56 damaged in unincorporated Ventura County. Harsh Santa Ana winds along with extremely low humidity created ideal conditions for the Ventura County fire to jump into Santa Barbara County Saturday night, with winds gusting at speeds of up to 35 mph.

Efforts have been made to prevent downed power lines from sparking new blazes, while the Santa Barbara zoo has battened down the hatches and confined animals to their cages. The LA Times reports:

Crews were cutting lines outside the city in an effort to keep flames from further encroachment and “contingency strike teams” were dispatched throughout Carpinteria in case the blaze manages to cross fire lines, said Newport Beach firefighter Jude Olivas, a spokesman for the Thomas fire response.

The Santa Barbara Zoo was closed to the public Sunday, and its 500 animals were confined to their night quarters. The zoo was outside the evacuation area and not in immediate danger, but there was smoke and ash on the 30-acre property. “We drill for and are prepared for emergencies,” zoo director Nancy McToldridge said in a Facebook post. “We are taking all precautions to ensure the safety of our animals and our staff.”

The animal care staff was providing “enrichment,” including toys, treats and puzzles, to prevent the zoo residents from becoming bored inside, said director of marketing Dean Noble. The gorillas like music,” Noble said.

The Thomas fire has forced over 88,000 people from their homes in total, costing an estimated $25 million. The cause of the fire which began on Monday is still under investigation. As we reported earlier, California governor Jerry Brown had a sobering message for Southern Californians after a week of raging wildfires: This is your new normal.


California Governor Jerry Brown (D)

Offering a grim outlook for the state’s future struggles with uncontrollable blazes, the governor told California residents to brace for these types of fires to become an annual occurrence.

“This is kind of the new normal,” he said, adding that extreme fire activity will happen on a regular basis for decades.

“With climate change, some scientists are saying that Southern California is literally burning up,” he said. “So we have to have the resources to combat the fires and we also have to invest in managing the vegetation and forests … in a place that’s getting hotter.”

As for the three other notable California fires which we will discuss in a subsequent post:

  • Rye Fire – West of Valencia in LA County has burned 6,049 acres, 6 structures, and is 93% contained.
  • Creek Fire – North of Lake View Terrace in LA city limits has burned 15,619 acres, 123 structures, and is 95% contained
  • Lilac Fire – San Diego, has burned 4100 acres and is 75% contained

With the other fires mostly contained, the next 48 hours could prove disastrous for Santa Barbara and surrounding cities.

More nonsense as the Senate tax bill has marginal tax rates over 100% on certain pass through entities once income surpasses around 600,000
(courtesy zerohedge)

Senate Tax Debacle: Certain Pass-Through Entities Face Marginal Tax Rates Over 100% Under Current Bill

As the House and Senate continue to try to reconcile their two versions of a tax plan, the taxing structure for pass-through entities (s-corps, LLC’s, etc.) continues to be somewhat controversial, if not completely nonsensical. As we pointed out last week, the Senate bill somewhat randomly chose to exclude pass-through entities organized as family trusts from tax cuts which would ultimately leave them on the hook for much larger tax bills due to the elimination of other deductions. It’s unclear whether this bizarre exclusion was just an oversight or an intentional political hit on an easy target that no one in Washington DC would dare defend publicly: rich families organized as trusts.

Now, a new note from the Tax Policy Center lays out some scenarios whereby the marginal tax rate for high-income pass-through entities could soar to over 100%.  Of course, while two rational people can debate the impact of a ~40% tax rate on a person’s desire to work, we’re almost certain that a taxing structure that takes more than 100% of your marginal income will be a slight disincentive.  Here’s an example of how it works from the Wall Street Journal:

Consider, for example, a married, self-employed New Jersey lawyer with three children and earnings of about $615,000. Getting $100 more in business income would force the lawyer to pay $105.45 in federal and state taxes, according to calculations by the conservative-leaning Tax Foundation. That is more than double the marginal tax rate that household faces today.

If the New Jersey lawyer’s stay-at-home spouse wanted a job, the first $100 of the spouse’s wages would require $107.79 in taxes. And the tax rates for similarly situated residents of California and New York City would be even higher, the Tax Foundation found. Analyses by the Tax Policy Center, which is run by a former Obama administration official, find similar results, with federal marginal rates as high as 85%, and those don’t include items such as state taxes, self-employment taxes or the phase-out of child tax credits.

As Joseph Rosenberg of the Tax Policy Center notes, the penalty is greatest for high-income pass-through entities in highly taxed states.

Consider the example of a married couple whose entire income is “specified service” income generated by a pass-through entity and who claims the standard deduction. At an income of $524,000, the couple could take an $87,000 deduction (17.4% of the couple’s taxable income “without regard” to the deduction) that would reduce their taxes by $30,450 (since they are in the 35% tax bracket), but the deduction is entirely phased out at an income of $624,000. On average, that amounts to more than a 30% surtax on top of the 35% statutory tax rate over that range of income.

The actual phase-out is much more complicated, as the bill’s text released Monday night makes clear, because the deduction continues to apply even as its benefit is phased out. (If that sounds convoluted, it’s because it is.) The couple’s marginal income tax rate would jump to 61.375% at $528,541 of income. And it would rise to 73% until their income reaches $624,000 and the deduction is fully phased-out, at which point their marginal tax rate would return to the 35 percent ordinary income tax rate. (Note that these calculations do not include the additional 3.8 percent in self-employment payroll tax or the net investment income tax).

Here is how the overall tax rate schedule for pass-through income would look:

“This is a big concern,” said Scott Greenberg, a Tax Foundation analyst. “It would be unfortunate if Congress passed a tax bill that had the effect of making additional work and additional income not worthwhile for any subgroup of households.”

Of course, in the end, this type of taxing structure just raises the returns on “gaming” the tax system in every way possible.  “I would expect a huge tax-gaming response once people fully understand how it works,” said Mr. Gamage, a former Treasury Department official, who said business owners have an easier time engaging in such tax avoidance than salaried employees do. “The payoff for gaming is huge, within the set of people who both face these rates and have flexible enough business structures.”

Not surprisingly, lawmakers are looking at changes to prevent this debacle from happening as they attempt to reconcile Senate and House versions of the tax bill this week. The formal House-Senate conference committee will meet on Wednesday, and GOP lawmakers have said they may unveil an agreement by week’s end…though they seem to consistently miss their own self-imposed deadlines.

But you shouldn’t worry about these issues too much as a spokeswoman for the Senate Finance Committee assured the Journal that as “with any major reform, there will always be unusual hypotheticals delivering anomalous results…The goal of Congress’s tax overhaul has been to lower taxes on the American people and by and large, according to a variety of analyses, we’re achieving that.”

end

Janet’s favourite indicator, the JOLTS report shows a huge standard deviation move upward showing 5.6 million Americans were hired in October.  This is soft data and is always manipulated.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Near Record 5.6 Million Americans Were Hired In October, Most In Over 16 Years

After a burst of record high job openings which started in June and eased modestly in August, today’s October JOLTS report  – Janet Yellen’s favorite labor market indicator – showed a sharp drop in job openings across most categories now that hurricane distortions have cleared out of the system, with the total number dropping from 6.177MM to 5.996MM, well below the 6.135MM estimate, the biggest monthly drop and the lowest job openings number since May, resulting in an October job opening rate of 3.9% vs 4% in Sept.

After nearly two years of being rangebound between 5.5 and 6 million, the latest drop in job openings despite the alleged improvement in the economy is another inidication that an increasingly greater number of jobs may simply remain unfilled in a labor market where skill shortages and labor imbalances are becoming structural.

The number of job openings was down for total private and was little changed for government. Job openings increased in accommodation and food services (+94,000), construction  (+48,000), and real estate and rental and leasing (+40,000). Job openings decreased in wholesale trade (-90,000), finance and insurance (-47,000), information (-32,000), and nondurable goods manufacturing (-26,000). The number of job openings was little changed in all four regions. Now if only employers could find potential employees that can pass their drug test…

One notable change in this report was that despite the sharp drop in job openings, the number of hires in October soared by 232K to 5.552MM in October, the highest since March 2001, and further reducing the hiring rate from 3.8% to 3.6%. At the industry level, the number of hires increased in other services (+55,000) and health care and social assistance (+45,000). Hires decreased for state and local government, excluding education (-32,000). The number of hires increased in the Northeast region.

On an annual basis, the pace of hiring spiked in October, rising from 2.7% Y/Y in Sept., to 6.8% in October, the highest since February 2016.

The other closely watched category, the level of quits – which indicates workers’ confidence they can leverage their existing skills and find a better paying job – was unchanged in October, and was identical to the 3.18MM quits in September, suggesting little change to worker confidence about demand for their job skills. The number of quits was little changed for total private, for government, and in all industries. In the regions, the number of quits increased in the South and decreased in the Midwest.

And with a total 5.2 million separations (a 3.5% rate), this means that there were 1.6 million layoffs and discharges in October, little changed from September. The layoffs and discharges rate was 1.1 percent in Oct. The layoffs and discharges level increased in finance and insurance (+37,000) and in mining and logging (+7,000). Layoffs and discharges decreased in construction (-69,000) and in state and local government, excluding education (-15,000). The number of layoffs and discharges decreased in the Northeast region.

Putting all the data in context:

  • Job openings have increased since a low in July 2009. They returned to the prerecession level in March 2014 and surpassed the prerecession peak in August 2014. There were 6.0 million open jobs on the last business day of October 2017.
  • Hires have increased since a low in June 2009 and have surpassed prerecession levels. In October 2017, there were 5.6 million hires.
  • Quits have increased since a low in September 2009 and have surpassed prerecession levels. In October 2017, there were 3.2 million quits.
  • For most of JOLTS history, the number of hires (measured throughout the month) has exceeded the number of job openings (measured only on the last business day of the month). Since January 2015, however, this relationship has reversed with job openings outnumbering hires in most months.
  • At the end of the most recent recession in June 2009, there were 1.2 million more hires throughout the month than there were job openings on the last business day of the month. In October 2017, there were 444,000 fewer hires than job openings.

Finally, and perhaps most notably, the Beveridge Curve (job openings rate vs unemployment rate), appears to be gradually normalizing after a nearly decade-long “drift” from its conventional pattern. From the start of the most recent recession in December 2007 through the end of 2009, the series trended lower and further to the right as the job openings rate declined and the unemployment rate rose. In October 2017, the unemployment rate was 4.1 percent and the job openings rate was 3.9 percent.

David Stockman tackles the nonsense in the latest jobs report and the shape of the USA “recovery”

(courtesy David Stockman/ContraCorner)

David Stockman Lashes Out At Mainstream Media’s “Peak Fantasy Time”

Authored by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog,

If you want to know why both Wall Street and Washington are so delusional about America’s baleful economic predicament, just consider this morsel from yesterday’s Wall Street Journal on the purportedly awesome November jobs report.

Wages rose just 2.5% from a year earlier in November – near the same lackluster pace maintained since late 2015, despite a much lower unemployment rate. But in a positive sign for Americans’ incomes, the average work week increased by about 6 minutes to 34.5 hours in November…. November marked the 86th straight month employers added to payrolls.

Whoopee!

Six whole minutes added to a work week that has been shrinking for decades owing to the relentlessly deteriorating quality mix of the “jobs” counted by the BLS establishment survey. In fact, even by that dubious measure, the work week is still shorter than it was at the December 2007 pre-crisis peak (33.8) and well below its 2000 peak level.

The reason isn’t hard to figure: The US economy is generating fewer and fewer goods producing jobs where the work week averages 40.5 hours and weekly pay equates to $58,400 annually and far more bar, hotel and restaurant jobs, where the work week averages just 26.1 hours and weekly pay equates to only $21,000 annually.

In other words, the ballyhooed headline averages are essentially meaningless noise because the BLS counts all jobs equal—-that is, a 10-hour per week gig at the minimum wage at McDonald’s weighs the same as a 45 hour per week (with overtime) job at the Caterpillar plant in Peoria that pays $80,000 annually in wages and benefits.

When the line is trending inexorably from the upper left to the lower right, of course, it means there are more of the former and fewer of the latter. Six more minutes of continuing worse—-is still bad.

As a matter of fact, the November report showed 20.199 milliongoods-producing jobs in manufacturing, construction and energy/mining, which did represent about a 2% improvement from prior year.

The real story, however is not about the short-term monthly or annual deltas being generating by an economy barely crawling forward. Rather, at 102 months, the current business cycle is exceedingly long in the tooth by historic standards (the longest expansion was just 118 months under the far more propitious circumstances of the 1990s).

In fact, what has been the weakest expansion in history by far may now be finally running out of gas.

During the last several weeks the pace of US treasury payroll tax collections has actually dropped sharply—and it is ultimately Uncle Sam’s collection box which gives the most accurate, concurrent reading on the state of the US economy. Some 20 million employers do not tend to send in withholding receipts for the kind of phantom seasonally maladjusted, imputed and trend-modeled jobs which populate the BLS reports.

Yet we we are not close to having recovered the 4.3 million goods producing jobs lost in the Great Recession; 40% of them are still AWOL—meaning they are not likely to be recovered before the next recession hits.

Stated differently, the US economy has been shedding high paying goods producing jobs ever since they peaked at 25 million way back in 1980. Indeed,  we are still not even close to the  24.6 millionfigure which was posted  at the turn of the century.

By contrast, the count of leisure and hospitality jobs( bars, hotels and restaurants), or what we have dubbed the “Bread and Circuses Economy” keeps growing steadily, thereby filling up the empty space where good jobs have vacated the BLS headline total.

Thus, when goods-producing jobs peaked at 25 million back in 1980, there were only 6.7 million jobs in leisure and hospitality. Today that sector employs 16.0 million part-time, low-pay workers or 2.4X the four decade ago level.

Yes, there is nothing wrong with these jobs or the workers who hold them, but the fact that they constitute a rapidly increasing share of the mix is powerful proof that the job market is not nearly as awesome as it is cracked up to be; and that the monthly BLS report is surely no measure at all of a rising standard of living in Flyover America.

The larger point is that the monthly jobs report is really neither a report on true labor market conditions or a proxy for genuine economic growth. The fact is, without sustained growth of  full-time, full-pay “breadwinner” jobs there is no real economic recovery or progress.

And we literally mean, no progress. With an update for November’s results, the chart below would show 72.8 million “breadwinner jobs” in goods production, the white collar professions, business management and support, transportation and distribution, FIRE (finance insurance and real estate) and full-time government jobs outside of schools.

As it happens, that is virtually the same number posted by the BLS back in January 2001 when Bill Clinton was packing his bags to vacate the Oval office. In short, three presidents later—all of whom have claimed undying devotion to good jobs and rising living standards—and there is hardly a single new breadwinner job.

The above chart does not bring the concept of awesome to mind. In fact, it reminds of the same kind of stagnation that is evident in all the key metrics for real economic progress. For instance, an economy flat-out can not grow without steady gains in industrial production, which includes energy extraction and all facets of goods manufacturing from automobiles to furniture clothes, shoes and canned soup.

But like in the case of “breadwinner jobs”, this so-called recovery has generated none of it. The index of industrial production stands at exactly the level of the pre-crisis peak a full decade ago.

There is a whole raft of these statistics,  but the following graph leaves little to the imagination.

Notwithstanding the Fed’s whacko claim that it hasn’t generated enough inflation in recent years, the truth is that even by the BLS’ faulty measuring stick every single dollar of median household income gain has been eaten up by CPI inflation. Accordingly, there has been zero gain in real median household income for the entirety of this century!

Image result for image of real median income

What does our latest Oval Office occupant plan to do about this? Why nothing less than borrow $1.8 trillion from future taxpayers in order to enable corporations and other business to crank-out even bigger financial engineering distributions to shareholders in the form of dividends, stock buybacks and M&A deals.

This isn’t even “disruption” as per the Donald’s real job. It’s just dumb and fiscally irresponsible beyond measure – a message we have once again taken to the mainstream media in recent days.

Well that about does it for today

I will see you TUESDAY night

HARVEY

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