DEC 19/GOLD DOWN $1.45/SILVER IS DOWN 1 CENT/COMEX GOLD EFP ISSUANCE: 9150 CONTRACTS AND SILVER ISSUANCE: 1089 CONTRACTS/MUELLER IS PROBABLY IN BIG TROUBLE FOR SEIZING TRUMP TRANSITION EMAILS/

GOLD: $1261.15 down $1.45

Silver: $16.13 DOWN 1 cent

Closing access prices:

Gold $1262.00

silver: $16.15

SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1270.98 DOLLARS PER OZ

NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: $1261.70

PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $9.28

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SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1273.95

NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1262.95

Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$11.00

SHANGHAI REJECTS NY /LONDON PRICING OF GOLD

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LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1263.10

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1263.20

LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1260.35

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. 1261.40??

For comex gold:

DECEMBER/

 NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR DECEMBER CONTRACT:  1469 NOTICE(S) FOR 146,900 OZ.

TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 8563 FOR 856,300 OZ (26.63 TONNES),

For silver:

DECEMBER

297 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

1,405,000 OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 6227 for 31,135,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: BID $17,616/OFFER $17,711 DOWN $1254 (morning) 

BITCOIN : BID $16,917 :  OFFER 17,028  down $1943 (CLOSING)

end

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total open interest SURPRISINGLY FELL BY A TINY SIZED 670 contracts from 207,954 FALLING TO 207,275 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S 10 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICING.  WE HAD NO APPRECIABLE COMEX LIQUIDATION BUT ON TOP OF THIS, WE WERE AGAIN NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD ANOTHER GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: A RESPECTABLE  1089 EFP’S FOR MARCH (AND ZERO FOR DEC AND OTHER MONTHS) AND THUS TOTAL ISSUANCE OF 1089 CONTRACTS. HOWEVER THE MOVEMENT ACROSS TO LONDON IS NOT AS SEVERE AS IN GOLD AS THERE SEEMS TO BE A MAJOR PLAYER TAKING ON THE BANKS AT THE COMEX.  STILL, WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1089 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. FRIDAY WITNESSED 1699 EFP’S FOR SILVER ISSUED. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S.

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/ STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF DECEMBER:

37,501 CONTRACTS (FOR 13 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 37,501 CONTRACTS OR 187.50 MILLION OZ: AVERAGE PER DAY: 2,884 CONTRACTS OR 14.423 MILLION OZ/DAY)

RESULT: A TINY SIZED FALL IN OI COMEX DESPITE THE 10 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICE.  HOWEVER  WE HAD MINIMAL COMEX SILVER LIQUIDATION BUT WE DID HAVE A FAIR SIZED SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1089 CONTRACTS  WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS:  FROM THE CME DATA 1089 EFP’S  WERE ISSUED TODAY (FOR MARCH EFP’S)  FOR A DELIVERABLE CONTRACT OVER IN LONDON WITH A FIAT BONUS. IN ESSENCE THE  DEMAND FOR SILVER PHYSICAL INTENSIFIES GREATLY. WE REALLY GAINED 419 OI CONTRACTS i.e. 1089 open interest contracts headed for London (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A DECREASE OF 670 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS INCREASE DEMAND  HAPPENED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE OF SILVER BY 10 CENTS AND A  CLOSING PRICE OF $16.14 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A MASSIVE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX.

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by just OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.040 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 149% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT DECEMBER MONTH/ THEY FILED: 297 NOTICE(S) FOR 1,485,000 OZ OF SILVER

In gold, the open interest FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE 1524 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 453,613 DESPITE THE FAIR SIZED GAIN  IN PRICE OF GOLD YESTERDAY ($7.85).  HOWEVER,  THE TOTAL NUMBER OF GOLD EFP’S ISSUED YESTERDAY FOR TODAY  TOTALED A CONSIDERABLE  9150 CONTRACTS OF WHICH THE MONTH OF DECEMBER SAW 0 CONTRACTS AND FEB SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 9150 CONTRACTS. The new OI for the gold complex rests at 453,613. DEMAND FOR GOLD INTENSIFIES GREATLY AS WE CONTINUE TO WITNESS THE HUMONGOUS NUMBER OF EFP TRANSFERS TOGETHER WITH THE MASSIVE AMOUNT OF GOLD OUNCES STANDING FOR DECEMBER. EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK  TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD.  THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX  HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.  IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A HUGE GAIN OF 8,626 OI CONTRACTS: 1524 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE  COMEX  AND A GOOD SIZED  9150 OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON.

FRIDAY, WE HAD 13,632 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S/ GOLD(EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER STARTING WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE170,546 CONTRACTS OR 17.054 MILLION OZ OR 528.77 TONNES (13 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 13,118 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY OR 1.3118 MILLION OZ/DAY)

Result: A GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN OI DESPITE THE GOOD SIZED RISE IN PRICE IN GOLD TRADING YESTERDAY ($7.85). WE  HAD A GOOD SIZED  NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 9150. THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX AND YET WE REACHED THE HUGE DELIVERY MONTH OF DECEMBER. I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES.  IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 9150 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A NET GAIN IN OPEN INTEREST OF 8,626  contracts:

9150 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND A 1524 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE  COMEX. (in tonnes, the gain yesterday equates to 26.83)

we had:  1469  notice(s) filed upon for 146,900 oz of gold.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD:

Today,  NO CHANGES in gold inventory at the GLD.

Inventory rests tonight: 837.20 tonnes.

SLV

NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:

INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.337 MILLION OZ/

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in silver FELL BY A TINY SIZED 670 contracts from 207,945 DOWN  TO 207,275 (AND now A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET ON FRIDAY/APRIL 21/2017 AT 234,787) DESPITE THE  RISE IN PRICE OF SILVER OF 10 CENTS YESTERDAY . HOWEVER,OUR BANKERS  USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE ANOTHER  1089  PRIVATE EFP’S FOR MARCH (WE DO NOT GET A LOOK AT THESE CONTRACTS AS IT IS PRIVATE BUT THE CFTC DOES AUDIT THEM).  EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  WE HAD MINIMAL COMEX SILVER COMEX LIQUIDATION BUT, IF WE TAKE THE SLIGHT OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 670 CONTRACTS TO THE 1089 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S  WE OBTAIN A NET GAIN OF  419  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS, AND YET WE STILL HAVE A  HUGE AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES THAT ARE STANDING FOR METAL IN DECEMBER (SEE BELOW). THE NET GAIN TODAY IN OZ: 2.1 MILLION OZ!!! 

RESULT: A TINY SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE  10 CENT RISE IN PRICE (WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING).  BUT WE ALSO  HAD ANOTHER 1089 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING  COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON . TOGETHER WITH THE HUGE AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR DECEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER INTENSIFIES DESPITE THE CONSTANT RAIDS.

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late MONDAY night/TUESDAY morning: Shanghai closed UP 28.61 points or 0.88% /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 203.25 pts or 0.70% / The Nikkei closed DOWN 33.77 POINTS OR 0.15%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.54%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.6030/Oil UP to 57.45 dollars per barrel for WTI and 63.55 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED . ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.6030. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST  THE ONSHORE YUAN AT 6.6044 //ONSHORE YUAN SLIGHTLY STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR/OFF SHORE STRONGER TO THE DOLLAR/. THE DOLLAR (INDEX) IS  WEAKER AGAINST ALL MAJOR CURRENCIES. CHINA IS  VERY HAPPY TODAY.(STRONG MARKETS)

 

 

3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA

i)North Korea

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 c  CHINA

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)France

Foolish policies by the EU to allow these migrants into the countries has brought on told grief to many of their cities. Many French cities have major problems and are now seeking help from Macron

 

( zerohedge)

ii)ECB
Looks like the Draghi and company are trapped and cannot sell any of the bonds of Steinoff who reported a huge amount of financial irregularities two weeks ago.
( zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)Israel

Interesting:  Hamas is cracking down on militants who are firing “unauthorized” rocket attacks against Israel.  It seems that Hamas cannot take more of Israel counter measusres to those rocket attacks

( zerohedge)

ii) Saudi Arabia/Yemen

Saudi’s intercept two Houthi ballistic missiles targeting a Riyadh royal palace
(courtesy zerohedge)
iii)Not good:  The Saudi economy contracts big time;  this is the first time in 8 years that this has happened.  They are unveiling a record spending spree to boost growth

( zerohedge)

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

7. OIL ISSUES

When these yuan priced crude futures begin trading, , this will be a dagger into the heart of uSA hegemony

 

( Paraskova/OilPrice.com)

 

8. EMERGING MARKET

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)The bitcoin founder is perfectly correct:  bitcoin is as good as useless:

( Tom Turula/Australian Financial review)

ii)And rightfully so, they should be scared as a Korean Exchange in Bitcoin files for bankruptcy: after receiving a 2nd cyberattack in 2 months:

( zerohedge)

iii)I brought this to your attention yesterday but it is worth repeating. Generally many of the USA government trades are erased as they morph into London forward upon which the long side cancels out the short side.

this is a must read…

( Stewart Dougherty/GATA)

iv)It seems that everybody is waiting for the new oil futures to commence in yuan.

( Bloomberg/GATA)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

i)This is quite a shocker as Toys R Us may close up to 200 stores amid collapsing sales.  This is happening before Christmas.

( zerohedge)

 

ii)The GOP are planning to add to the popular child health insurance program and disaster aid spending for a total of  81 billion dollars and they should have the support of some democrats.  This should keep the house open until Jan 19. 2019/

(courtesy zerohedge)

iii)SWAMP  STORIES

a)Dershowitz comments on Mueller’s sloppiness in not obtaining warrants for those trump transition team emails
( zerohedge)

b)A constitutional lawyer Robert Barnes claims that Mueller’s seizure of transition emails has likely violated the law (4th amendment)

( zerohedge)
( David Stockman/ContraCorner)

iv)As expected the House passes the tax reform bill.  There were 12 Republicans who voted against the bill and all Democrats.

( zerohedge)

Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 1524  CONTRACTS UP to an OI level of 453,613 DESPITE THE RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($7.85 GAIN WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING).  WE DID HAVE MINIMAL COMEX GOLD  LIQUIDATION BUT WE DID HAVE A HUGE GAIN IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST AS WE  HAD ANOTHER STRONG COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED  A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS. THE CME REPORTS THAT 0 EFPS WERE ISSUED FOR DECEMBER  AND 9150 EFP’S WERE ISSUED FOR FEBRUARY FOR A TOTAL OF 9150 CONTRACTS. THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED TODAY: 8,626 OI CONTRACTS IN THAT 9150 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON  AND WE LOST 1524 COMEX CONTRACTS.  NET GAIN: 8,626 contracts OR 862,600 OZ OR 26.03 TONNES

Result: AN GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST DESPITE THE RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD TRADING  YESTERDAY ($7.85.)  WE HAD NO REAL GOLD LIQUIDATION . TOTAL OPEN INTEREST GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 8,626 OI CONTRACTS…

We have now entered the  active contract month of DECEMBER. The open interest for the front month of December saw it’s open interest FELL by 218 contracts DOWN to 1893.  We had 4 notices filed upon yesterday so we LOST 214 COMEX contracts or an additional 21400 oz will NOT  stand for delivery AT THE COMEX in this active delivery month of December.  However these contracts morphed into London forwards.

January saw its open interest LOSS OF 25 contracts DOWN to 1521. FEBRUARY saw a loss of 964 contacts down to 334,298.

We had 1469 notice(s) filed upon today for 146900 oz

PRELIMINARY VOLUME TODAY ESTIMATED;  109,723

FINAL NUMBERS CONFIRMED FOR YESTERDAY:  220,514

comex gold volumes are increasing dramatically

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI FELL BY A TINY 670 CONTRACTS  FROM 208,354 DOWN TO 207,275 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S 10 CENT GAIN IN PRICE .  HOWEVER, WE DID HAVE ANOTHER FAIR SIZED 1089 EMERGENCY EFP’S FOR MARCH ISSUED BY OUR BANKERS (ZERO FOR DECEMBER) TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 1089.  IT SURE LOOKS LIKE THE SILVER BOYS HAVE STARTED TO MIGRATE TO LONDON FROM THE START OF DELIVERY MONTH AND CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH UNTIL FIRST DAY NOTICE JUST LIKE WE ARE WITNESSING TODAY.  USUALLY WE NOTED THAT CONTRACTION IN OI OCCURRED ONLY DURING THE LAST WEEK OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH. THIS PROCESS HAS JUST BEGUN IN EARNEST IN SILVER STARTING IN SEPTEMBER.  HOWEVER, IN GOLD, WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING THIS FOR THE PAST 2 YEARS.  WE HAD NO  LONG SILVER LIQUIDATION AS DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER INTENSIFIES ESPECIALLY AS WE WITNESS A HUGE AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR METAL IN DECEMBER AS WELL AS THAT CONTINUAL MIGRATION OF EFPS OVER TO LONDON. ON A PERCENTAGE BASIS THERE ARE MORE EFP’S ISSUED FOR GOLD THAN SILVER AS IT SEEMS THAT A MAJOR PLAYER WISHES TO TAKE ON THE CROOKED COMEX SHORTS.  ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 419 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS:

670 CONTRACTS LOSS AT THE COMEX WITH THE ADDITION OF  1089 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN: 419 CONTRACTS

We are now in the big active delivery month of December and here the OI FELL by 129 contracts DOWN to 667.  We had 103 notice filed UPON YESTERDAY so we LOST 26 contract or an additional 130,000 oz will NOT stand in this active COMEX delivery month of December. However these guys morphed their long positions for a London forward and a fiat bonus. obviously there is no silver left for them at the comex.

The January contract month ROSE by 5 contracts UP to 1324.  February saw a gain OF 5 OI contract RISING TO 35. The March contract LOST 522 contracts DOWN to 167,574.

We had 297 notice(s) filed  for 1,405,000 oz for the DECEMBER 2017 contract

INITIAL standings for DECEMBER

 Dec 19/2017.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz   nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz  
nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz    nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz 
95,624.570 oz
HSBC
No of oz served (contracts) today
 
1469 notice(s)
146,900 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
424 contracts
(42,400 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
8513 notices
851,300 oz
26.63 tonnes
Total accumulative withdrawals  of gold from the Dealers inventory this month   NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month     xxx oz
Today we HAD  1 kilobar trans

WE HAD nil DEALER DEPOSIT:
total dealer deposits: nil oz

We had nil dealer withdrawals:
total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 1 customer deposit(s):

i) Into HSBC: 95,624.570oz

 

total customer deposits 95,624.57  oz

We had 0 customer withdrawal(s)

Total customer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 0 adjustment(s)

For DECEMBER:
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 1469 contract(s) of which 881 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 258 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the DECEMBER. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (8513) x 100 oz or 851,300 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC. (1893 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (1469 x 100 oz per contract) equals 893,700 oz, the number of ounces standing in this  active month of DECEMBER

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the DECEMBER contract month:

No of notices served (8513) x 100 oz or ounces + {(1893)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (1469) x 100 oz which equals 893,700 oz standing in this active delivery month of DECEMBER (27.797 tonnes). THERE IS  33.4 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY SO FAR.

WE LOST 214 COMEX CONTRACTS STANDING OR AN ADDITIONAL 21400 OZ WILL NOT STAND AT THE COMEX  BUT THESE GUYS MORPHED INTO LONDON FORWARDS PLUS A FIAT BONUS.

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ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR DECEMBER 2016,  THE INITIAL  GOLD STANDING:  39.038 TONNES STANDING

BY THE END OF THE MONTH:  FINAL: 29.791 TONNES STOOD FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS THE REMAINDER HAD TRANSFERRED OVER TO LONDON FORWARDS.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Total dealer inventory 1,070,695.148 or 33.30 tonnes (dealer gold continues to disappear)
Total gold inventory (dealer and customer) = 9,159,255.823 or 284.89 tonnes

I have a sneaky feeling that these withdrawals of gold in kilobars are being used in the hypothecating process and are being used in the raiding of gold!
The gold comex is an absolute fraud. The use of kilobars and exact weights makes the data totally absurd and fraudulent! To me, the only thing that makes sense is the fact that “kilobars: are entries of hypothecated gold sent to other jurisdictions so that they will not be short with their underwritten derivatives in that jurisdiction. This would be similar to the rehypothecated gold used by Jon Corzine at MF Global.

IN THE LAST 14 MONTHS 69 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE DECEMBER DELIVERY MONTH

DECEMBER INITIAL standings

 Dec 19/ 2017
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory  nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
38,096.35 oz
 CNT
Delaware
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
 nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory 
 853,960.389 oz
CNT
JPM
No of oz served today (contracts)
 297
CONTRACT(S)
(1405,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
380 contract
(1,900,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 6227 contracts

(31,135,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month  NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal  of silver from the Customer inventory this month

today, we had 0 deposit(s) into the dealer account:

total dealer deposit: nil  oz

we had 0 dealer withdrawals:

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 2 customer withdrawal(s):

i) Out of CNT: 28,156.680 oz

ii) out of Delaware: 9939.650 oz

TOTAL CUSTOMER WITHDRAWAL  38,096.35  oz

We had 0 Customer deposit(s):

 

***deposits into JPMorgan have stopped again
In the month of March and February, JPMorgan stopped (received) almost all of the comex silver contracts.
why is JPMorgan bringing in so much silver??? why is this not criminal in that they are also the massive short in silver

total customer deposits: nil oz

we had 0 adjustment(s)

i

The total number of notices filed today for the DECEMBER. contract month is represented by 297 contract(s) FOR 1,405,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in DECEMBER., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 6227 x 5,000 oz = 31,135,0000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC. (667) and the number of notices served upon today (297 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the DECEMBER contract month: 6227 (notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of DECEMBER(667) -number of notices served upon today (297)x 5000 oz equals 33,035,000 oz of silver standing for the DECEMBER contract month. This is EXCELLENT for this active delivery month of November.

WE LOST AN ADDITIONAL 26 CONTRACTS OR 1300,000 OZ THAT WILL OT STAND AT THE COMEX  BUT DID MORPH THESE CONTRACTS FOR A LONDON FORWARD AND A FIAT BONUS.

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR THE DECEMBER 2016 CONTRACT WE HAD 15.282 MILLION OZ STAND.

THE FINAL STANDING: 19.900 MILLION OZ AS QUEUE JUMPING INTENSIFIED.

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ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 24,739

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR FRIDAY:   50,380 CONTRACTS

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 50,380 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO 251 MILLION OZ OR 35.9% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION.  THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

Total dealer silver: 57.344 million
Total number of dealer and customer silver: 239.158 million oz

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott and Central Fund of Canada

1. Central Fund of Canada: traded at Negative 2.0 percent to NAV usa funds and Negative 2.0% to NAV for Cdn funds!!!!
Percentage of fund in gold 63.1%
Percentage of fund in silver:36.6%
cash .+.3%( Dec 19/2017)

 

WILL UPDATE LATER TONIGHT

 

2. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -1.21% (Dec 19 /2017)
3. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -0.88% to NAV (Dec19/2017 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -1.21%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ territory at -0.88%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail but being rescued by Sprott.
Sprott WINS hostile 3.1 billion bid to take over Central Fund of Canada

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD

Dec 19/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 837.20 TONNES

Dec 18 SHOCKINGLY AFTER TWO GOOD GOLD TRADING DAYS, THE CROOKS RAID THE COOKIE JAR BY THE SUM OF 7.09 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 837.20 TONNES

Dec 15/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY/RESTS AT 844.29 TONNES.

Dec 14/a good sized gain of 1.48 tonnes of gold into the GLD/inventory rests at 844.29 tones

Dec 13/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 842.81 tonnes

Dec 12/SURPRISINGLY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.81 TONNES

Dec 11/SURPRISINGLY NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD DESPITE THE CONSTANT RAIDS ON GOLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.81 TONNES

Dec 8/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.81 TONNES

Dec 7/A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 2.66 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.81 TONNES

Dec 6/No changes in GOLD inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 845.47 tonnes

Dec 5/A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.64 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.47 TONNES

Dec 4/A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 8.56 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/THE BLEEDING OF GLD GOLD HAS STOPPED/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 848.11 TONNES

Dec 1/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 839.55 TONNES

Nov 30/no change in gold inventory at the GLD. Inventory rests at 839.55 tonnes

Nov 29/a withdrawal of 2.66 tonnes at the GLD/Inventory rests at 839.55 tonnes

NOV 28/ no change in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 842.21 tonnes

Nov 27 Strange!! we gold up by $6.40 today, we had a good sized withdrawal of 1.18 tonnes from the GLD. Here is something that is also strange: we have had exactly 1.18 tonnes of gold withdrawn from the comex on 5 separate occasions in the past 30 days..explanation?

Nov 24/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 843.09 tonnes

Nov 22/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 843.39 tonnes

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Dec 19/2017/ Inventory rests tonight at 837.20 tonnes

*IN LAST 295 TRADING DAYS: 103.75 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 230 TRADING DAYS: A NET 53.53 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO GLD INVENTORY.
*FROM FEB 1/2017: A NET 22.42 TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED.

end

Now the SLV Inventory

Dec 19/SILVER INVENTORY REMAINS CONSTANT AT 326.337 TONNES

Dec 18.2017//SILVER INVENTORY CONTINUES TO REMAIN PAT./INVENTORY REMAINS AT 326.337 MILLION OZ/

INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.337 TONNES

Dec 15/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.337 MILLION OZ/

Dec 14/a small withdrawal of 377,000 oz and that usually means to pay for fees./inventory rests at 326.337 million oz/

Dec 13/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 326.714 million oz/

Dec 12/WOW!ANOTHER STRANGE ONE: SILVER HAS BEEN DOWN FOR 10 CONSECUTIVE DAYS, YET THE SLV ADDS ANOTHER 1.415 MILLION OZ TO ITS INVENTORY. IN THAT 10 DAY PERIOD, SLV ADDS 9.584 MILLION OZ/

INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.714 MILLION OZ

Dec 11/WOW!! ANOTHER STRANGE ONE: SILVER DESPITE BEING DOWN FOR 9 CONSECUTIVE TRADING DAYS ADDS ANOTHER 944,000 OZ TO ITS INVENTORY. FROM NOV 30 UNTIL TODAY SILVER HAS BEEN DOWN EVERY DAY. HOWEVER THE INVENTORY OF SILVER HAS RISEN 8.169 MILLION OZ.

Dec 8/A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.642 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.355 MILLION OZ/

Dec 7/strange!! with the continual whacking of silver, no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 321.713

Dec 6/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory remains at 21.713 million oz.

Dec 5/THIS ONE HIT ME LIKE A TON OF BRICKS: SLV ADDS 2.507 MILLION OZ DESPITE THE HUGE DRUBBING SILVER TOOK TODAY. (PRICE DISCOVERY?)

Dec 4/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.207 MILLION OZ/

Dec 1/VERY STRANGE!! WITH SILVER IN THE DUMPSTER THESE PAST FEW DAYS, SLV ADDS 2.076 MILLION OZ/???

INVENTORY 319.207 MILLION OZ/

Nov 30/no changes in silver inventory despite the huge drop in price/inventory rests at 317.130 million oz

Nov 29/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 317.130 million oz/strange!! at drop of 32 cents and no change in inventory?

Nov 28/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 317.130 million oz.

Nov 27/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY DESPITE A ZERO GAIN IN PRICE /QUITE OPPOSITE TO GOLD WHICH SAW 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD WITHDRAWN DESPITE A RISE IN PRICE OF $6.40

Nov 24/A WITHDRAWAL OF 944,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.130 MILLION OZ

Nov 22/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 318.074 million oz.

 

Dec 19/2017:

Inventory 326.337 million oz

end

6 Month MM GOFO
Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration

+ 1.75%
12 Month MM GOFO
+ 1.93%
30 day trend

end

end

Major gold/silver trading /commentaries for TUESDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.

GOLD/SILVER

New Rules For Cross-Border Cash And Gold Bullion MovementsGoldCore

Mark O’Byrne   December 19, 2017

– War on cash continues and expands to affect non-criminals including gold owners
– New definitions of “cash” to be drawn up by EU to include gold and precious metals
– Claim cash and gold bullion “often used for criminal activities such as money laundering, or terrorist financing”

– Legislation will allow authorities to seize assets from those ‘without a criminal conviction’
– New rules usurp those currently in existence since 2005

The ironically named European Parliament’s Civil Liberties and Economic Affairs committees have backed plans by the European Union to introduce tougher checks and controls on cash entering or leaving the region.

Currently individuals are required to declare cross-border cash sums of €10,000 or more, under the First Cash Control Regulation (CCR) from 2005. A new decision will repeal the CCR and allow authorities to seize cash below the €10,000 threshold should criminal activity be suspected.

According to the  European Parliament news website, MEPs have agreed to:

– widen the definition of ”cash” to include gold, precious stones and metals, as well as anonymous prepaid electronic cash cards,

– enable the authorities to impound cash below the €10,000 threshold temporarily, if criminal activity is suspected, and

– make it mandatory to disclose “unaccompanied” cash sent by cargo.

The justification for these changes? They say the current legislation is ‘riddled’ with loopholes. These loopholes apparently make it very easy for money to be laundered across borders, especially as criminals regularly move amounts below the €10,000 limit.

Large sums of cash, be it banknotes or gold bullion are often used for criminal activities such as money laundering, or terrorist financing. With this legislation, we give our authorities the tools they need to improve their fight against those crimes,” Mady Delvaux, MEP.

This decision to tighten controls is not a surprise. On December 21st last year the European Commission announced plans to increase efforts to “tighten cash controls, ease cross border police probes, and speed up asset freezes and confiscation orders”. This is all part of a larger “Security Union” package launched in April 2015.

No conviction needed

Last December Justice commissioner Vera Jourova told reporters that steps were being taken in order to make life more difficult for criminals and terrorists looking to finance activities.

The problem is that whether you’re a criminal or not then you are subject to these new changes. This is particularly worrying when one considers that the ‘loopholes’ being closed currently prevent the authorities from seizing and confiscating if  the “criminal is not convicted”. Now law enforcement offices in various states can take one look at you, decide they don’t like you or suspect you and find cause to seize your assets.

Sadly they don’t even have to take a physical look at you in order to seize your assets, even ‘unaccompanied cash’ and precious metals is up for grabs if undisclosed.

Careful with those birthday card gifts and wedding rings

At the moment it is not clear if ‘unaccompanied cash’ includes gold and silver bullion coins and bars but it likely is under the new definition. Given the new legislation comes in two parts, first the inclusion of gold etc in the definition of cash and secondly the seizure of unaccompanied assets, then it would be sensible to assume that gold and silver are under scrutiny.

The definition also includes ‘anonymous prepaid electronic cards’. One has to ask how far this is going to go. I often receive ‘gift vouchers’ in the form of electronic cards, from relatives to be spent in a store of their choosing. Are these now at risk of confiscation?

Furthermore, is the definition just about gold and silver bullion and coins, or also jewellery? Goodness knows how many women cross borders each day with their engagement and wedding rings comfortably sitting above the €10,000 mark.

Typical scare-mongering combined with opacity from the EU

This is typical scare-mongering combined with opacity from the EU. The organisation regularly uses ‘criminal activities’ as the justification for imposing additional controls on society in the drive towards the cashless society.

We have seen this in the EU where many countries have capped the amount that can be legally paid in cash, in order to keep a track of money laundering. Following the Charlie Hebdo attacks France’s Finance Minister Michel Sapin declared war on cash, placing the terrorists’ ability to buy dangerous goods with cash as one of the main reasons for the murders. There is now a €1,000 cap on cash payments, down from €3,000 previously.

Also in the EU, the removal of the €500 note was done under the guise of crime prevention.

Whilst the EU like to act as though they are being transparent in their reasoning for imposing such controls the opacity with which they are able to enforce them is terrifying.

Given that they are now apparently able to seize and temporarily freeze assets without evidence of criminal activity or conviction, we are now all at risk.

The truly frustrating part of all this is that cash is not used for fraud at anywhere near the level we see at the electronic level. Governments love to use cash-based money-laundering as a reason to go cashless but cash-based only laundering is not that big of a deal. In the UK it is common knowledge that it is not as big a problem as cyber money laundering.

The Treasury and Home Office believe that they ‘know about most cash-based money laundering’ but the big problem lies in ‘high-end’ money laundering, such as from bank accounts:

The size and complexity of the UK financial sector means it is more exposed to criminality than financial sectors in many other countries, including abuse enabled by professional enablers in the legal and accountancy sector.”

It is here that the intelligence agencies see ‘significant gaps’ in their knowledge.

Making you feel like a criminal 

The cashless society is very real and pretty terrifying prospect which we explored in some depth last year. One of our key points was how anti-cash legislation ended up affecting the mindset of innocent individuals who were looking to move legitimately held funds:

In Sweden, the bastion of the cashless society, banks have done such a great job in making cash appear so suspicious that:

In general, the rule of thumb in Scandinavia is: ‘If you have to pay in cash, something is wrong,’” writes Mikael Krogerus for Credit Suisse. Arvidsson explains that “At the offices which do handle banknotes and coins, the customer must explain where the cash comes from, according to the regulations aimed at money laundering and terrorist financing,” The hassle, for the depositor, is enough to make them go cashless.

Surely the risks of holding cash are for you, the individual, to manage. And the risks of criminal activity, if facilitated by cash or even diamonds, is for the police to manage. Why are the two conflated?

Conclusion: Where do we go from here?

The only example I have seen the EU offer up in terms of justifying the control of gold and silver is the following:

National authorities have also seen that certain precious high-value commodities such as gold are now being used to escape the obligation to declare, since gold is not considered ‘cash’ under existing rules. For example, French customs authorities found non-declared cash and gold worth €9.2 million in postal parcels and freight packages during an investigation at Roissy Airport in 2015.

I have seen this cited twice since last year, with no other accompanying examples. A (admittedly quick) Google search found no reports of this. It’s also interesting how the EU’s example fails to offer a breakdown of how much of the €9.2 million was cash and how much was gold.

The sad truth is likely that the EU is seeing increasing numbers of people pulling their assets out of bank accounts and placing them into physical assets. They are doing this because of the increasing threat of both negative interest rates and deposit bail-ins. Both are very real and depressingly legal risks.

As we concluded in our study of the cashless society:

A ban on cash does not remove the issues that the proponents claim it will, instead it exacerbates the issues that already exist and bring them to the forefront of every prudent saver and investors’ mind: liberty, security of assets, protection of wealth against negative interest ratesbail-ins and currency devaluations.

The current drive towards a cashless society shows the importance of being diversified and not having all your savings and assets within the vulnerable financial and banking system.

It underlines the importance of diversification and having direct ownership of some of your wealth – outside the electronic savings and payments systems.

-END-

Today, Bitcoin is crashing and now it is below 17,000.00

(courtesy zerohedge)

Bitcoin Is Crashing

Shortly after the US equity market closed this evening, someone decided it was time to dump a few hundred Bitcoin, sending the price plunging below $17,000…

Did another HODLer just fold?

Potential investors in bitcoin should steer clear of a dangerous gamble and not complain to financial regulators if things do go wrong, Denmark’s central bank governor warned.

“You should stay away (from bitcoin). It is deadly,” central bank head Lars Rohde said in an interview with state broadcasterDR published online on Monday.

Additionally, CoinTelegraph reports that, according to Bitcoin.com co-founder and CTO Emil Oldenburg, Bitcoin is “useless” and has no future as a tradeable currency, citing high transaction fees and long lead times. In an interview with Swedish tech site Breakit, Oldenburg said that he had sold all of his Bitcoin and switched to Bitcoin Cash, a hard fork of Bitcoin created in August 2017.

Oldenburg justifies his actions, saying:

“An investment in Bitcoin right now I would say is the most risky investment one can make. It is extremely high-risk. I’ve actually sold all of my Bitcoins recently and switched to Bitcoin Cash.”

Despite the fact that Oldenburg’s company is in fact a Bitcoin wallet, the CTO says that he has become disenchanted with Bitcoin due to its high transaction fees and slow confirmation time, saying Bitcoin’s current performance is “completely unreasonable.”

Increased transaction speed and lower costs are the main features supporters of Bitcoin Cash point to when comparing the two coins.

Ethereum is also being sold but remain positive on the day…

END

The bitcoin founder is perfectly correct:  bitcoin is as good as useless:

(courtesy Tom Turula/Australian Financial review)

A bitcoin.com founder has sold all his bitcoin, as it’s ‘as good as useless’

 Section: 

By Tom Turula
Australian Financial Review, Melbourne
Tuesday, December 19, 2017

Bitcoin.com is one of the world’s largest bitcoin sites, having grown its profile thanks to the insane price surge of the cryptocurrency this year. But its co-founder and CTO, Emil Oldenburg, a Swedish native, is extremely skeptical of bitcoin’s future.

“I would say an investment in bitcoin is right now the riskiest investment you can make. There’s an extremely high risk,” he says in an interview with Swedish tech site Breakit:

https://www.breakit.se/artikel/10332/svensk-doldis-bakom-bitcoin-com-bit…

“I have in fact sold all my bitcoins recently and switched to bitcoin cash,” says Oldenburg, referring to the problems with bitcoin’s high transaction costs and lead times.

Indeed, by some counts, bitcoin transaction fees are doubling every three months, and it now takes on average 4.5 hours to confirm a bitcoin transaction. Ars Technica reported that fees reached $US26 ($34) per trade recently. Bitcoin.com operates in everything that has to do with bitcoins. …

The reason why people haven’t understood the risks inherent in owning bitcoins, according to Oldenburg, is simply because most have so far only bought the cryptocurrency — but never sold or traded with them. “As soon as people realise that this is how it works, they will start to sell,” he tells Breakit.

“The old bitcoin network is as good as unusable.”

While buying, selling or trading in bitcoins is not an issue today, according to Oldenburg, the problems surface when bitcoin transactions are recorded on the blockchain, the digital ledger that records each transaction.

The problem centres on the limited amount of transactions per second you can make in the bitcoin network, which in turn depends on the formation of the memory “block size” that store the transactions. This, according to Oldenburg, makes for a very illiquid and unusable cryptocurrency. …

… For the remainder of the report:

http://www.afr.com/markets/currencies/a-bitcoincom-cofounder-has-sold-al…

END

And rightfully so, they should be scared as a Korean Exchange in Bitcoin files for bankruptcy: after receiving a 2nd cyberattack in 2 months:

(courtesy zerohedge)

Crypto Traders Spooked After Korean Exchange Files For Bankruptcy

cryptocurrency exchange in South Korea collapsed on Tuesday after it suffered a second cyberattack in eight months and lost a large amount of its digital-currency reserves. This spooked Asian investors who sold Bitcoin (and other cryptos).

As The Wall Street Journal reports, Yapian, the company that operates a Seoul-based exchange called Youbit, suspended digital-currency trading and filed for bankruptcy after its systems were hacked in the predawn hours of Tuesday. The exchange trades 10 virtual currencies including bitcoin and ethereum.

Yapian said in a statement that the latest security breach caused it to lose 17% of its total assets. The company didn’t specify the type of virtual currencies that were stolen or the financial value of its losses. In April, Youbit, formerly called Yapizon, lost 4,000 bitcoins now worth $73m to cyberthieves.

Users of the exchange with digital coins in their online accounts were told by Youbit on Tuesday that they could withdraw about 75% of their cryptocurrency for the time being. The remaining balances would be returned after the company goes through bankruptcy proceedings, it said.

It said it was “very sorry” that it had been forced to shut down.

Once again however, the dip in BTC is being bought off the lows…

 

Ethereum had surged overnight (touching almost $900 in overnight trading) but was also sold on the Korea news…

However, on the positive catalyst side, CoinTelegraph reports that in 2018 central banks will hold cryptocurrency, alongside gold and foreign currencies, according to the CEO of Blockchain.info, Peter Smith.

Speaking in a short interview on CNBC’s Coin Rush segment, Smith forecast that next year would see the first such incorporations of crypto into traditional financial institutions, saying:

“I think this year will be the first year we start to see central banks start to hold digital currencies as part of their balance sheet.”

2018 will be the year that central banks hold digital currencies: Blockchain CEO from CNBC.

Bitcoin’s rapid rise this year, from around $1,000 in January to $20,000 this week, has attracted the attention of banks, governments and regulators globally. In some markets banks specifically have adopted varying and sometimes polarizing, views on the cryptocurrency’s future.

While South Korea’s Shinhan announced it would become the first major bank to offer customers Bitcoin wallets and storage, the Governor of Denmark’s central bank this week described Bitcoinas “deadly” and urged citizens to stay away from it.

As a trend, Smith continued, central banks would likely begin to issue their own branded digital assets “either late this year or early next year.”

Multiple governments, including Russia’s, are considering issuing a national digital currency, and Dubai has already officially decided to do so.

During the interview, when quizzed about the likelihood of a “major hack” occurring in the crypto space in the future, Smith said that since it had been around five months since the last major hack, the ecosystem was “due for one in the next month or two.” Speaking of his own company, he told CNBC:

“We’ve been one of the biggest targets for a long time; it keeps you busy.”

 

end

I brought this to your attention yesterday but it is worth repeating. Generally many of the USA government trades are erased as they morph into London forward upon which the long side cancels out the short side.

 

this is a must read…

(courtesy Stewart Dougherty/GATA)

 

 

Stewart Dougherty: ‘Exchange for physicals’ erases government trades that rig gold price

 Section: 

11:06a ET Monday, December 18, 2017

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Financial writer Stewart Dougherty argues today that the supposedly “emergency” procedure in the New York Commodities Exchange’s gold futures market, “exchange for physicals,” is part of a mechanism that governments use to vaporize contracts created by their own trading that aims to keep the gold price in a tight channel.

Dougherty writes that this is why, while “the enormous gold futures trading volume in New York and London would by now almost certainly have produced delivery failures if they were all legitimate and real, there have not been any reported delivery failures.”

Dougherty adds: “In our view we are at the point where official corruption is so endemic and extreme that it has become a dangerous mistake to rely on official gold reporting of any kind, whether from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the CME Group, the Comex, the London Bullion Market Association, the World Gold Council, the mainstream media, the government, or anyone in between in conducting market or price analysis or in forecasting coming gold market developments.”

Dougherty’s commentary is headlined “Gold EFPs: Absolute Proof that the Paper Gold Price Is a Fraud” and it’s posted at GoldSeek here —

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1513607700.php

— and at Investment Research Dynamics here:

http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/gold-efps-absolute-proof-that-pape…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

 

It seems that everybody is waiting for the new oil futures to commence in yuan.

(courtesy Bloomberg/GATA)

All that Chinese oil traders want for Christmas is a futures contract

 Section: 

From Bloomberg News
Thursday, December 14, 2017

Unlike Mariah Carey, all Yuan Quwei wants for Christmas is to trade oil futures on a Chinese exchange.

She’s among the mass of speculators that have pumped trillions of yuan into the country’s fledgling commodities bourses, trading in everything from eggs to iron ore futures with extraordinary intensity. She’s now waiting for the launch of China’s long-delayed domestic crude contracts, and hoping it’ll be in time for Christmas.

“Oil futures in Shanghai would be a very, very interesting product and I can’t wait for them,” Yuan, 48, said by phone. “An official launch during Christmas would be appropriate. The western market would be quiet and allow the Shanghai exchange as well as Chinese investors to adjust in the early days.”

Few derivatives have generated quite so much hype as China’s yuan-denominated oil futures. Mooted more than two decades ago and since postponed, shelved and re-born, they’re closer than ever to finally starting. For the first time, the world’s biggest oil buyer may open a commodity futures to foreign investors as it looks to wrest control over pricing from international benchmarks and promote the use of China’s currency in global trade.

The Shanghai Futures Exchange last week said a fifth round of testing had passed smoothly while the State Council was said to have given its approval for the futures to start, one of the final regulatory hurdles to listing. While they’ve never progressed as far before, there’s still no official start date, and neither the exchange nor the securities regulator will confirm when that may be. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-14/all-chinese-oil-trade.

… 



Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP AT 6.6030 /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP AT 28.61 POINTS 0.88% / HANG SANG CLOSED UP 203.25 POINTS OR 0.70%
2. Nikkei closed UP 33.77 POINTS OR 0.15% /USA: YEN RISES TO 112.59

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL MIXED   /USA dollar index FALLS TO 93.56/Euro RISES TO 1.1810

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO . +.0420/ GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 112.59/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD FINALLY IN THE POSITIVE/BANK OF JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR YIELD CURVE AS THEY PURCHASE ALL BONDS TO GET TO ZERO RATE!!

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 57.45  and Brent: 63.55

3f Gold UP/Yen DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.325%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 1.817% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 1.421%

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 4.022?????????????????

3k Gold at $1264.90 silver at:16.22: 6 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 8/100 in roubles/dollar) 58.61

3m oil into the 57 dollar handle for WTI and 63 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/China forced to do QE!! as it lowers its yuan value to the dollar/GOT A SMALL SIZED REVALUATION NORTHBOUND

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 112.59 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9842 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1624 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to +0.325%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.3906% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.734% /

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)

Global Stocks Rise To Record Highs As Tax Reform Is “Priced In” All Over Again

 

Yesterday we joked that with the US House of Representatives set to vote for the GOP tax bill on Tuesday, markets would “price in” the same tax legislation they have been pricing in every day for the past year, all over again…

Get ready for US markets to price in tax reform all over again in just a few short hours

… and sure enough, that’s precisely the narrative being spun this morning to explain why US futures and global stocks are once again, drumroll, higher. To wit, from Bloomberg: “European stocks struggled to build on Monday’s jump as the common currency advanced, while U.S. equity futures edged higher as the prospects for tax cuts in the world’s largest economy continued to buoy sentiment.” Of course, US equity futures have been doing that precisely that every single day for weeks and months on end, but now that Congressional passage finally appears imminent, it may finally be time to stop buying the endless rumor and sell the news. As a reminder, on Monday Republican Senator Susan Collins of Maine said she’ll back the GOP tax bill, a move that all but clinches the votes necessary to pass the legislation. Both the House and Senate plan to vote by Wednesday on final legislation before sending it to the president.

As markets grind toward the end of a stellar year for global stocks, the biggest focus for investors still chasing gains is the progress of U.S. tax reform, which is inching toward a denouement. The House is scheduled to vote Tuesday on the tax bill following a floor debate that morning. It then goes to the Senate, where Republican leaders intend to bring it up as soon as they get it. “It will help sustain a very strong year of earnings growth for U.S. and for global equities,” said Timothy Graf, State Street Bank & Trust head of macro strategy EMEA., speaking on Bloomberg TV. “It will keep sentiment robust.”

“The dollar is not excited about tax reform,” said Saxo Bank’s head of FX strategy John Hardy. “It could just year-end effects but maybe people are just weighing the negatives. Maybe it won’t boost growth that much… and maybe it is going to blow a hole in the fiscal deficit.”

Aside from the US, Europe’s Stoxx 600 index was also modestly in the green near a six-week high “as U.S. lawmakers move closer to passing a tax overhaul legislation” and as gains for airline shares and retailers offset a decline in utilities.  Britain’s FTSE and Germany’s DAX both edged 0.1-0.2 percent higher and though France’s CAC wobbled bond yields edged up and the euro and the pound made some ground in the FX market. Individual movers include Old Mutual (+4.2%) in the wake of offloading their UK wealth unit for USD 800mln as well as ongoing optimism following Ramaphosa’s appointment as head of the South African ANC; a nation which the company holds exposure to. Elsewhere, Dialog Semiconductors (+5.7%) have been supported by news that Tsinghua Unigroup have increased their holding in the Co. to 9%. The region’s core bonds declined.

In the latest Brexit developments, EU’s Barnier said that the UK cannot have a special deal for the City. Barnier also stated the UK could not stop Brexit unilaterally and must follow all rules and regulations of the EU during the transition period, including new laws passed after the UK has left. The same article also reported that UK Brexit Secretary Davis is to warn the EU that it cannot cherry-pick during Brexit trade deal discussions and that services cannot be separated from goods.

Germany reported another stellar IFO print which however did not reach an all time high this time, and dipped modestly for the overall Business Climate read:

  • German Ifo Business Climate (Dec) 117.2 vs. Exp. 117.5 (Prev. 117.5, Rev. 117.6)
  • Ifo Current Conditions (Dec) 125.4 vs. Exp. 124.7 (Prev. 124.4, Rev. 124.5)
  • Ifo Expectations (Dec) 109.5 vs. Exp. 110.7 (Prev. 111.0)

Earlier, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbs a second day, following a record close for the S&P 500 Index amid, what else, “growing certainty the U.S. tax bill will be passed.” Benchmarks in Japan and South Korea falling as stocks in Sydney, Hong Kong and China climbed. Stocks rose in Hong Kong for a second day on Tuesday, as technology shares including Tencent Holdings Ltd. and AAC Technologies Holdings Inc. gained. Hang Seng (+0.9%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.6%) conformed to the overall risk appetite which the PBoC also facilitated with its continued liquidity efforts. The Chinese central bank strengthened its daily reference rate by 0.1% and injected a net 20 billion yuan. The RBA showed increased confidence the economy will strengthen further next year; Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull announced a new Cabinet team. Australian 10-year yields rise three basis points;

Australia’s ASX 200 (+0.5%) traded positive as mining stocks remained firm on the back of recent gains in copper and iron ore, while upside in Nikkei 225 (Unch) was restricted after the prior day’s JPY strength and as several construction names underperformed after prosecutors conducted raids related to collusion in maglev train bids.

In global macro, the major currencies remained in all-too-familiar ranges, with the dollar under minimal pressure a second day on profit-taking rather than fresh positioning. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slipped for a second day as investors took money off the table before the House and the Senate vote on the U.S. tax bill. The index has now given back all of its gains from Friday. Major currencies stayed within recent ranges, with only short-term investors actively participating and macro as well as real-money accounts sidelined as the holiday season approaches, according to traders in Europe and London. The dollar pares earlier losses seen at the start of the European session, reining in EUR/USD’s ascent above 1.1800. Sterling retreated as Brexit efforts rumbled on. The South Africa’s rand slipped after reaching its strongest level since March after Cyril Ramaphosa won the ruling African National Congress party’s leadership contest.

FX trading has been slow with volatility in the yen and Aussie slumping to three-year lows in thin pre-Christmas markets. Additioanlly, implied volatilities in the front-end of currency pairs dropped further, hitting fresh year-to-date lows, as central banks continued to soak up volatility.

Speaking of crashing FX vol, Bloomberg writes overnight that a measure of expected volatility in dollar-yen slid to the lowest in more than three years as trading volumes declined before year-end and accommodative central bank policies suppressed currency swings. Volatility in the pair dropped for the eighth time in nine days, while a measure of global foreign-exchange volatility slumped to the least since October 2014 on Monday. The dollar was little changed even after U.S. lawmakers moved closer to enacting tax cuts. New Zealand’s dollar rose as a report showed business confidence improved. “Central banks have killed FX vol after they compressed interest/equities earlier in the year,” said Simon Pianfetti, senior manager in the market solutions department at SMBC Trust Bank Ltd. in Tokyo. “Central banks have been more influential recently than in the past. Still, it’s very difficult to be long vol even at the current distress levels.”

Meanwhile, better volumes were observed behind the latest leg lower in Bunds and Gilts, which has pushed the 10 year EU debt futures to 163.07 and 125.39 respectively (-33 and -19 ticks from previous Eurex and Liffe settlements respectively). No obvious catalyst for the renewed selling interest, but the overall tone for core bonds is bearish amidst ongoing optimism about US tax reform proposals passing more stages of approval in time for President Trump to sign the bill before year end. Moreover, one of the arch ECB hawks, Hansson, has been speaking about potential QE guidance tweaking around the halfway stage of 2018 to signal another downscale, so bears maybe seizing on his comments.

WTI crude holds above $57/barrel; gold pulls back from day highs amid tight ranges while industrial metals extend losses in London trading. WTI and Brent crude futures have modestly extended their recovery from recent declines with WTI reclaiming USD 57/bbl. Energy newsflow remains light other than comments from an Ineos spokesman that repair options for the Forties pipeline are still being assessed with the timeline for repairs remaining at 2-4 weeks from Dec 11th. In metals markets, gold is marginally  higher albeit off best-levels while copper saw mild profit taking overnight after recent advances and Chinese iron ore futures remain supported by demand from steel producers. Shell have reported flaring at their 404k bpd Pernis refinery in Rotterdam, related to a restart of units following maintenance. Of note, this is the largest refinery in Europe.

Bitcoin was 6% lower at $17,867 on the Coinbase exchange after roaring to a record above $19,000 overnight. A South Korean cryptocurrency exchange said on Tuesday it is shutting down and is filing for bankruptcy after it was hacked for the second time this year, highlighting concerns about the security around virtual currencies. The exchange, called Youbit, had been hacked once before in April when nearly 4,000 bitcoins were stolen in a cyber attack that the country’s spy agency linked to North Korea, according to a South Korean newspaper report on Saturday.

Bulletin Headline Summary

  • European equities struggling to find any firm direction with newsflow fairly quiet
  • Focus on house vote on tax reforms
  • Looking ahead, highlights include, US Building Permit and Housing Starts and Fed’s Kashkari

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 2,697.25
  • VIX Index down 1.4% to 9.40
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 393.32
  • MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.2% to 171.98
  • MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan up 0.5% to 559.49
  • Nikkei down 0.2% to 22,868.00
  • Topix down 0.2% to 1,815.18
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.7% to 29,253.66
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.9% to 3,296.54
  • Sensex up 0.6% to 33,813.25
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 6,071.79
  • Kospi down 0.1% to 2,478.53
  • German 10Y yield rose 0.3 bps to 0.312%
  • Euro up 0.1% to $1.1798
  • Brent Futures up 0.2% to $63.56/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 1.0 bps to 1.537%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.8 bps to 1.428%
  • Brent Futures up 0.2% to $63.56/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.06% to $1,263.05
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.07% to 93.63

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Congressional Republicans kicked off the final leg of their six-week
    legislative sprint to overhaul the U.S. tax code. The House is scheduled
    to vote Tuesday on the tax bill and Senate leaders intend to bring the
    measure up as soon as they get it
  • EU Chief Negotiator Michel Barnier stressed a hardline trade position, ruling out a special carve-out for the U.K. financial services industry, just as U.K. PM May’s key ministers were starting to unite behind a Brexit policy that may soothe rifts in her Cabinet
  • More upheaval looks set to emerge as Spain heads into an election in the rebel region of Catalonia. While the aim was to halt separatists, it’s going to be tough to discern any real winner from Thursday’s vote following a campaign riddled with mutual suspicion and infighting
  • German business confidence unexpectedly weakened in December, while remaining close to its record, in a sign of nerves over the outlook for Europe’s largest economy. The Ifo Institute’s gauge of business sentiment declined to 117.2 in December from a revised 117.6 the previous month
  • This year’s real money investors’ shift into the euro from the dollar could remain in place, according to Bastien Drut, a strategist at Amundi Asset Management. Overall accommodative monetary policy stance should “keep investors’ risk appetites upbeat and favor the continuation of flows into European equities, thus offering the euro an additional tailwind”
  • M&G Investments is still buying Italian debt, but hedging the risk of a political upset through credit default swaps, as it tries to capitalize from the improving euro-area economy while protecting investments from risk events
  • Two of Australia’s largest asset managers are at odds about whether their nation’s currency will break below 70 U.S. cents.
  • McDermott to Buy Chicago Bridge in $6 Billion Construction Deal
  • NxStage Down; DealReporter Says FTC Eyeing Home-Care ‘Monopoly’
  • Belgium’s Greenyard in Advanced Talks to Buy Dole Food
  • Apple Replaces India Sales Chief as Business Sags
  • Chrysler Diesel Cheating Case Dropped by 46 Truck Owners
  • Time Investors Sue Over Proposed Acquisition by Meredith

Asia equity markets were mostly positive as the region followed suit from US, where all major indices extended on record highs and the Nasdaq briefly broke above 7,000 for the 1st time ever. The current Santa rally continued to be spurred by tax reform hopes, with the GOP now seen to have secured enough votes for passage after Republican Senators Lee and Collins jumped on board and declared to vote for the tax bill. ASX 200 (+0.5%) traded positive as mining stocks remained firm on the back of recent gains in copper and iron ore, while upside in Nikkei 225 (Unch) was restricted after the prior day’s JPY strength and as several construction names underperformed after prosecutors conducted raids related to collusion in maglev train bids. Hang Seng (+0.9%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.6%) conformed to the overall risk appetite which the PBoC also facilitated with its continued liquidity efforts. Finally, 10yr JGBs were flat amid an indecisive risk tone in Japan and weaker demand in the enhanced liquidity auction for super-long JGBs, while participants were also tentative ahead to the BoJ 2-day policy meeting beginning tomorrow after reports the bank could succumb to pressure from dovish dissenter Kataoka and tweak its language. PBoC injected CNY 50bln via 7-day, CNY 30bln via 14-day and CNY 20bln via 28-day reverse repos. PBoC set CNY mid-point at 6.6098 (Prev. 6.6162).

Top Asian News

  • HNA Units’ Bondholders Lack Protection From Parent’s Woes
  • FountainVest, Ontario Teachers Invest in Gym Chain Pure
  • Hong Kong Stocks Advance for Second Day as AAC, Tencent Climb
  • Duterte Orders Auction of Remaining Telecom Frequencies
  • Japan Approves Deployment of New Land-Based Missile Shield

European equities trade with little in the way of firm direction as markets continue to wind down for Christmas and macro newsflow remains light for the region. In terms of sector specific movers and shakers, energy and IT names are the only sectors in the red with moves particularly broad-based. Individual movers include Old Mutual (+4.2%) in the wake of offloading their UK wealth unit for USD 800mln as well as ongoing optimism following Ramaphosa’s appointment as head of the South African ANC; a nation which the company holds exposure to. Elsewhere, Dialog Semiconductors (+5.7%) have been supported by news that Tsinghua Unigroup have increased their holding in the Co. to 9%.

Top European News

  • Expect More European Bank M&A, Citi Says; Lists Possible Targets
  • Dialog Semi Climbs as Tsinghua Raises Stake to 9%
  • U.K.’s Love for Coffee Shows No Sign of Ending as Cafes Grow

Better volumes behind the latest leg lower in Bunds and Gilts, which has pushed the 10 year EU debt futures to 163.07 and 125.39 respectively (-33 and -19 ticks from previous Eurex and Liffe settlements respectively). No obvious catalyst for the renewed selling interest, but the overall tone for core bonds is bearish amidst ongoing optimism about US tax reform proposals passing more stages of approval in time for President Trump to sign the bill before year end. Moreover, one of the arch ECB hawks, Hansson, has been speaking about potential QE guidance tweaking around the halfway stage of 2018 to signal another downscale, so bears maybe seizing on his comments.

In FX, the DXY continues to hover just above 93.500, and nearer recent range lows despite firmer US Treasuries yields and broadly risk-on sentiment ahead of the House vote on tax reforms. EUR has seen very little adverse reaction to Germany’s latest Ifo survey showing sub-forecast prints in 2 of the 3 components, though Eur/Usd is testing bids/support at 1.1800 again, and a near 900 mn option expiry at 1.1775 could come into play if the big figure fails to hold. AUD and NZD are just keeping ahead of their G10 peers and close to highs vs the Greenback, around 0.7675 and 0.7000 respectively. GBP and JPY both a tad softer vs the USD, with Cable unable to maintain ground above 1.3400 amidst ongoing Brexit trade deal bartering (EU and UK both maintaining tough lines on preferences for terms), and USD/JPY in even tighter bounds within the mid-112.00 area where a decent near 900 mn expiry resides (112.50).

In commodities, WTI and Brent crude futures have modestly extended their recovery from recent declines with WTI reclaiming USD 57/bbl. Energy newsflow remains light other than comments from an Ineos spokesman that repair options for the Forties pipeline are still being assessed with the timeline for repairs remaining at 2-4 weeks from Dec 11th. In metals markets, gold is marginally  higher albeit off best-levels while copper saw mild profit taking overnight after recent advances and Chinese iron ore futures remain supported by demand from steel producers.
Shell have reported flaring at their 404k bpd Pernis refinery in Rotterdam, related to a restart of units following maintenance. Of note, this is the largest refinery in Europe.

Looking at the day ahead, politics is likely to be the main focus with a potential US House vote on the tax legislation and UK PM Theresa May due to sit down with her Cabinet to hash out further Brexit details. The data calendar is fairly light with November housing starts and building permits data in the US due.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Housing Starts, est. 1.25m, prior 1.29m; MoM, est. -3.1%, prior 13.7%
  • 8:30am: Building Permits, est. 1.27m, prior 1.3m; MoM, est. -3.5%, prior 5.9%
  • 8:30am: Current Account Balance, est. $116.2b deficit, prior $123.1b deficit

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Thankfully it’s likely to be quieter in markets, with yesterday seeing a wind down in activity even if markets were very strong after the US tax reform boost on Friday. On that, US equities all rose to fresh highs (S&P +0.54%; Dow +0.57%) and the Nasdaq broke through 7,000 intraday before finishing at 6,994.8 (+0.84%). The improved prospects of tax reforms lifted most sectors in the S&P, with  gains led by mining, telcos and financial stocks while utilities fell 1.16%. European markets rebounded and played a bit of catch up with all bourses closing higher. The Stoxx 600 was up the most (+1.15%) since July, with all sectors in the green and gains led by real estate, mining and tech stocks. Across the region, the DAX jumped 1.59%, the CAC rose 1.33% while the FTSE was the relative laggard, up 0.62%.

Back onto US tax reforms, Republican Senator Collins has now committed to a yes vote, leaving only one undecided Senator (Mr Flake of Arizona). Her support likely provides enough votes for the passage of the bill through the Senate. Looking ahead, the full House will vote on the tax bill today, with a Senate vote potentially as early as tomorrow.

Staying in the US, in President Trump’s official national strategy document, he did not single out China as a strategic competitor, instead the tone was more conciliatory where he noted that China seeks “to challenge American influence, values and wealth” and alluded to unfair trade practices. This morning in Asia, markets are trading modestly higher. The Hang Seng and China’s CSI 300 are both up c0.9%, while Nikkei (-0.15%) and Kospi (-0.11%) are slightly down as we type.

Now briefly recapping other markets performance from yesterday. Core European bond yields were little changed (Bunds 10y +0.7bp; Gilts -0.4bp) while UST 10y rose 3.9bp after the tax developments. Turning to currencies, the US  dollar index weakened 0.25%, while the Euro and Sterling gained 0.27% and 0.45% respectively, with the latter partly supported by PM May’s comments over a desire for a bespoke trade deal after Brexit. Over in South Africa, the ZARUSD rallied 2.76% after Cyril Ramaphosa was elected the head of the ruling party, potentially putting him in line to succeed Jacob Zuma as President.

In commodities, WTI oil was broadly flat while precious metals rose c0.4%. Elsewhere, key LME metals all traded higher (Copper +1.37%; Zinc +0.56%, Nickel +3.81%), while Iron ore jumped 3.7% as  China’s anti-pollution drive continued to tightened the supply of higher grade ore.

Away from the markets now and onto central bankers speak. The Fed’s Kashkari, one of the dissenters on the December rate hike, reiterated his dovish views. He noted “the yield curve has flattened  significantly, potentially signalling an increasing risk of a recession” and that the Fed “should not increase rates further until we are much more confident that inflation is returning to our target”. Further he added, the 2% inflation should be treated as “a ceiling, not a target”. On tax reforms, he has now incorporated it into his economic forecasts, but the expected impacts on supply and demand “do not appear large enough to change my expected path for monetary policy”.

The Fed’s Williams noted the Fed is likely to hike rates three times in 2018 and two to three times in 2019. Elsewhere, the ECB’s Liikanen noted the strong economic recovery across Europe and reduction in economic slack supports confidence that “inflation will converge towards target in due course”, but an “ample degree” of monetary stimulus is still required. On QE, he noted asset  purchases can continue ‘after September 2018” if inflation does not appear to be accelerating.

Back onto Bitcoins. Following the French Finance Minister Le Maire’s calls for joint regulation of Bitcoins yesterday, Germany’s Finance Ministry seems to support the idea too, noting “it makes sense to discuss the speculative risks of virtual currencies and their impact on financial system at international level”. Elsewhere, German’s Merkel wants coalition talks with the SPD to conclude by the middle of January and formal negotiations to take place “very quickly”, in part not to interfere with the ambitious timetable for reforming the EU.

Finally, the latest ECB holdings were released yesterday. Net CSPP purchases last week were €1.2bn and Net PSPP purchases €13.5bn. This left the CSPP/PSPP ratio at 8.8% last week (9.6% over last 4 weeks vs. 11.5% before QE was trimmed in April 2017). The reduced CSPP/PSSP ratio partly reflects the seasonal lull and likely noise in these numbers during December. Note that purchases will end  this Thursday and restart back up from January. Overall, we still think the ECB will likely keep CSPP relatively unscathed as part of the taper process as the new year starts.

Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the December NAHB Housing Market Index was well above market at 74 (vs. 70 expected) – the highest since 1999. The NAHB’s Chief Economist noted he expects continued growth in single-family home construction in 2018, supported by low unemployment, favourable demographics and a tight supply of existing home inventory. Over in Europe, the final reading for the Euro area’s core November CPI was unrevised at 0.9% yoy (1.5% yoy for headline).

Elsewhere, the UK’s December CBI trends total orders was above market at 17 (vs. 15 expected) and remaining at last month’s 29 year high. In Asia, the BoJ’s 4Q Tankan survey indicated firms  continue to expect inflation to remain below the BoJ’s target for the foreseeable future. Firms’ average inflation expectation for the year-ahead was 0.8% yoy (+0.1ppt from previous), but firms’ expectation for the 3 and 5-year-ahead horizon was unchanged at 1.1% yoy. Over in China, NBS reported that new home prices rose in 50 of 70 cities in November. According to Reuters, the average movement across all cities was an increase of 0.3% mom (vs. 0.3% previous), although annual inflation slowed to 5.1% yoy (vs. 5.4% previous).

Looking at the day ahead, politics is likely to be the main focus with a potential US House vote on the tax legislation and UK PM Theresa May due to sit down with her Cabinet to hash out further Brexit details. The data calendar is fairly light with the December IFO survey in Germany, Q3 labour costs for the Euro area and November housing starts and building permits data in the US due. The ECB’s
Hansson is also due to speak.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late MONDAY night/TUESDAY morning: Shanghai closed UP 28.61 points or 0.88% /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 203.25 pts or 0.70% / The Nikkei closed DOWN 33.77 POINTS OR 0.15%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.54%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.6030/Oil UP to 57.45 dollars per barrel for WTI and 63.55 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED . ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.6030. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST  THE ONSHORE YUAN AT 6.6044 //ONSHORE YUAN SLIGHTLY STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR/OFF SHORE STRONGER TO THE DOLLAR/. THE DOLLAR (INDEX) IS  WEAKER AGAINST ALL MAJOR CURRENCIES. CHINA IS  VERY HAPPY TODAY.(STRONG MARKETS)

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

NORTH KOREA/

 

3 b  JAPAN

c) REPORT ON CHINA

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

France

Foolish policies by the EU to allow these migrants into the countries has brought on told grief to many of their cities. Many French cities have major problems and are now seeking help from Macron

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

When these yuan priced crude futures begin trading, , this will be a dagger into the heart of uSA hegemony

 

(courtesy Paraskova/OilPrice.com)

Yuan-Priced Crude Futures Could Arrive Before Christmas

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

After years of setbacks and delays, China may be days away from launching a yuan-priced crude oil futures contract to make its currency more international and challenge the dominance of the petrodollar.

Many Chinese investors eagerly anticipate the start of yuan oil futures trading on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange, with hope it will come just in time for Christmas, when western markets will be either closed or calmer than usual.

Although local investors can’t wait to pour yuan into another commodity contract, international investors may not be as eagerbecause it is not clear yet how much freedom China would allow in that trade. International traders may have to swallow Chinese intervention on the markets or rigid capital controls, Bloomberg reported last week.

In July, the Shanghai International Energy Exchange, INE, completed a four-step trial in crude oil futures denominated in yuan and said that it would carry preparatory works for the listing of crude oil futures, and would try to launch the contract by the end of this year.

The launch of the yuan oil futures contract will be a wake-up callfor traders and investors who haven’t been paying attention to Chinese plans to create the so-called petroyuan and shift oil trade out of petrodollars, Adam Levinson, managing partner and chief investment officer at hedge fund manager Graticule Asset Management Asia (GAMA), said in October.

Although the petroyuan is not expected to immediately supplant the petrodollar, the world’s top oil importer launching a crude oil futures contract in its domestic currency is a sign that the Chinese want their yuan to play an increasingly important role in global trade, starting with the oil trade.

On the yuan front, the Chinese scored a success for their currency last year, when the International Monetary Fund (IMF) included the yuan in its Special Drawing Right (SDR) basket—an international reserve asset created by the IMF in 1969 to supplement the existing official reserves of member countries. The yuan joined the U.S. dollar, the euro, the yen, and the British pound sterling in the basket as the IMF recognized “an important milestone in the integration of the Chinese economy into the global financial system.”

After years of delays, it looks like China could meet this time its self-imposed deadline to launch the yuan oil futures by the end of this year.

“An official launch during Christmas would be appropriate. The western market would be quiet and allow the Shanghai exchange as well as Chinese investors to adjust in the early days,” Chinese trader Yuan Quwei told Bloomberg.

 

“The Chinese oil industry wants to have a local hedging tool while financial institution investors look on Shanghai crude futures as an important product in their portfolios,” Wang Xiao, an oil analyst at Guotai Junan Futures Co in Shanghai, commented for Bloomberg.

 

“Shanghai oil will be the first Chinese product that allows foreign investors to trade directly and such involvement will surely bring more volumes,” Wang noted.

According to other analysts, the success of the yuan oil futures contract greatly depends on the Chinese regulation (and room for intervention) on the market, which could deter international investors from bringing huge volumes into the contract. Others believe that while it makes sense that the world’s key oil import market launch yuan oil futures, it would take years for the yuan to really threaten the supremacy of the “entrenched” petrodollar.

For now, investors are looking to see if this year Santa will bring them that long-mooted, long-delayed yuan crude oil futures contract

END

8. EMERGING MARKET

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00 am

Euro/USA 1.1810 UP .0028/ REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ SPAIN VS CATALONIA/REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:/TRUMP HEALTH CARE DEFEAT//ITALIAN REFERENDUM DEFEAT/AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/ /USA FALLING INTEREST RATES AGAIN/HOUSTON FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES MIXED  

USA/JAPAN YEN 112.59 UP 0.012(Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/SIGNALS U TURN WITH INCREASED NEGATIVITY IN NIRP/JAPAN OUT OF WEAPONS TO FIGHT ECONOMIC DISASTER/

GBP/USA 1.3377 DOWN .0002 (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED

THERESA MAY FORMS A NEW GOVERNMENT/STARTS BREXIT TALKS/MAY IN TROUBLE WITH HER OWN PARTY/

USA/CAN 1.2854 DOWN .0012 (CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA)

Early THIS TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 28 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISNG to 1.1810`; / Last night the Shanghai composite CLOSED UP 28.61 POINTS OR 0.88% / Hang Sang CLOSED UP 203.25 POINTS OR 0.70% /AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.54% / EUROPEAN BOURSES MIXED 

The NIKKEI: this TUESDAY morning CLOSED DOWN 33.77 POINTS OR 0.15%

Trading from Europe and Asia:
1. Europe stocks OPENED MIXED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / : Hang Sang CLOSED UP 203.25 POINTS OR 0.70% / SHANGHAI CLOSED UPM 28.61 POINTS OR 0.88% /Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.54% /Nikkei (Japan)CLOSED DOWN 33.77 POINTS OR 0.15%

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1263.50

silver:$16.18

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.3906% !!! UP 0 IN POINTS from MONDAY night in basis points and it is trading JUST BELOW resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)

The 30 yr bond yield 2.734 UP 0 IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 93.56 DOWN 14 CENT(S) from YESTERDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

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And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS \1 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.829% UP  5  in basis point(s) yield from MONDAY

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.042% DOWN 0  in basis point yield from MONDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.485% UP 5  IN basis point yield from MONDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.91 UP 11 POINTS in basis point yield from MONDAY

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 42 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: +.379%  UP 7 IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY

END

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IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/4:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1816 UP.0034 (Euro UP 34 Basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/

USA/Japan: 113.04 UP 0.463(Yen DOWN 46 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3348 DOWN 0.0029( POUND DOWN 25 BASIS POINTS)

USA/Canada 1.2905 UP  .0039 Canadian dollar DOWN 39 Basis points AS OIL ROSE TO $57.45

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This afternoon, the Euro was UP 34 to trade at 1.1816

The Yen FELL to 113.04 for a LOSS of 46 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE

The POUND FELL BY 29 basis points, trading at 1.3348/

The Canadian dollar FELL by 39 basis points to 1.2905/ WITH WTI OIL RISING TO : $57.45

The USA/Yuan closed AT 6.6047
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.042% DOWN 0  IN BASIS POINTS / yield/
Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 7   IN basis points from MONDAY at 2.459% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.816 UP 7  in basis points on the day /

Your closing USA dollar index, 93.65 DOWN 4 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/BREAKS RESISTANCE OF 92.00

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 1:00 PM EST

London: CLOSED UP 7.08 POINTS OR 0.09%
German Dax :CLOSED DOWN 96.57 POINTS OR 0.72%
Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 37.67 POINTS OR 0.69%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 9.80 POINTS OR 0.10%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 115.57 POINTS OR 0.52%

The Dow closed DOWN 37.45 POINTS OR 0.15%

NASDAQ WAS  DOWN 30.91 Points OR 0.44% 4.00 PM EST

WTI Oil price; 57.45 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 63.44 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE CROSS: 58.67 UP 10/100 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE LOWER BY 10 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS TO +.379% FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:30 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:$57.46

BRENT: $63.72

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.452% (ANYTHING HIGHER THAN 2.70% BLOWS UP THE GLOBE)

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.806%

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1842 up .0058

USA/JAPANESE YEN:112.86 UP 0.282

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 93.44 down 26 cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.3383 : up 5 POINTS FROM LAST NIGHT

Canadian dollar: 1.2875 down 9 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: +0.379%

END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

Small Caps Slammed And Bonds Bloodbath As Tax-Hopers “Sell The News”

 

Sometimes better not to play at all…

 

Bonds & Stocks both slammed lower today – the worst combined day since 11/9/16…

 

Trannies ended the day higher but the rest of the major US equity indices “sold the news”…Small Caps worst…

 

Futures show the excitement better over the last two days (not the dip in Nasdaq to unch from Friday before bouncing)…

 

High Tax companies did manage to outperform for the second day in a row but it was not exactluy breathtaking…

 

FANG Stocks sank into the red for the week…

 

LongFin rallied (despite CRCW’s suspension)…

 

Banks drifted (despite the curve steepening) with Goldman giving back all of yesterday’s gains…

 

The last two days have seen the biggest spike in Treasury yields since the election (but note that yields started to roll lower after the tax vote)

 

And the biggest steepening of the yield curve since before the election… (NOTE – the long-bond was not helped by comments on more long-dated issuance by Germany pushing their curve steeper)…

 

Note that 30Y Yields are following a very similar pattern to November’s FOMC…

 

Don’t get too carried away on this bond yield rip though – long-bond speculators were at near record longs and had added to net longs the most since 2007 – so it’s a positonal squeeze, not a trend change…

 

The Dollar index faded lower after the House tax vote to end the day lower…

 

Commodities were all marginally higher on the day with gold leading the week…

 

Gold was steady on the day as Bitcoin slipped lower…

 

But while bitcoin was lower on the day, most of the rest of the crypto space rallied… (all major cryptos dropped overnight on the Korean exchange bankruptcy)

 

And if you’re feeling really brave – here is your Bitcoin arb of the day… Buy BTC Futs, Short GBTC (good luck!)…

 

Finally we note that the T-Bill curve across year-end is inverted and starting to signal some government shutdown concerns…

 

Bonus Chart: The Death Cross of Rationality…

 

 

end

 

 

As expected the House passes the tax reform bill.  There were 12 Republicans who voted against the bill and all Democrats.

(courtesy zerohedge)

House Passes Tax-Reform Bill – 12 Republicans, All Democrats Vote Against

After more than six weeks of frenzied negotiations, the House of Representatives has passed the reconciled version of President Donald Trump’s tax plan, leaving only one major hurdle between Republicans and their biggest legislative accomplishment of the Trump era.

In a 227-203 vote, the House passed the tax plan over united Democratic opposition, as well as a flurry of ‘no’ votes from blue-state Republicans who spoke out against provisions in the bill that eliminate deductions for state and local taxesthat will disproportionately impact taxpayers in high-tax states like California and New York. Ultimately, 12 Republicans joined 191 Democrats in voting against the bill.

The vote followed an empassioned debate with Democrats – who labeled the bill the White House “tax scam” – slamming the bill as an attempt to establish a “permanent plutocracy.” Republicans countered that it would benefit all Americans, and evidence of its sanguine impact on the economy would emerge over the next year.

The contentious debate that preceded the vote was interrupted several times by protesters, including people who shouted “kill the bill, don’t kill us!” The Hill pointed out that one of the protesters was a woman in a wheelchair who said she relies on Medicaid and warned that the bill would “starve” the public.

One protester even interrupted Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) as he delivered a floor speech that he’s wanted to give for decades in support of the tax overhaul.

“The opponents of this bill – they’re not worried about tax cuts for the rich. They’re worried about tax cuts for you,” Ryan said. “Today we’re giving the people of this country their money back. Because it’s your money,” Ryan said.

In a tweet earlier in the day, Speaker Paul Ryan underscored the historical significance of the vote by tweeting a montage of him advocating for tax reform.

 

Today has been a moment decades in the making. Let’s get it done.

Now, the Senate must approve the reconciled version of the bill. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said he expects to hold the vote Tuesday night, which would sent it to the president’s desk.

As a reminder, here’s a summary of the bill’s most important provisions.

* * *

BUSINESSES

CORPORATE TAX RATE: Falls to 21 percent from 35 percent. The House and Senate bills, as well as Trump, had earlier proposed 20 percent. Going to 21 percent gave tax writers more federal revenue needed to make the tax cut immediate. U.S. corporations have been seeking a large tax cut like this for many years.

PASS-THROUGH BUSINESSES: Creates a 20 percent business income deduction for owners of pass-through businesses, such as sole proprietorships and partnerships. The House had proposed a 25 percent tax rate; the Senate, a 23 percent deduction.

CORPORATE MINIMUM: Repeals the corporate alternative minimum tax, which was set up to ensure profitable companies pay at least some federal tax.

INDIVIDUALS

TOP INDIVIDUAL INCOME TAX RATE: Falls to 37 percent from 39.6 percent. The House had proposed maintaining the 39.6 percent top rate and condensing the current seven tax brackets to four. The Senate had proposed cutting the top rate to 38.5 percent and maintaining the seven brackets.

PERMANENCE: The expectation is individual tax rates will snap back to current levels in less than 10 years. The individual tax rates in the House bill were permanent. The individual tax rates in the Senate bill would have expired after 10 years.

STATE AND LOCAL TAX (SALT): Both the House and Senate had proposed scaling back a popular individual deduction for state and local tax payments by limiting it to property-tax payments and capping it at $10,000. The compromise bill is expected to keep that cap, but also allow for continued deduction of state and local income tax payments.

MORTGAGE INTEREST: Caps the mortgage interest deduction at $750,000 in home loan value, down from the current $1 million. The House had proposed a $500,000 cap. The Senate bill left it at $1 million.

ESTATE TAX: Roughly doubles the exemption from the federal estate tax on inherited assets to about $11 million, but leaves the tax in place, mirroring the Senate proposal. The House bill had raised the deduction, but also entirely phased out the tax.

OTHER PROVISIONS:

OBAMACARE MANDATE: Repeals a federal fine imposed on Americans under Obamacare for not obtaining health insurance coverage. The House bill did not repeal the Obamacare individual mandate.

ANWR DRILLING: Allows oil drilling in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. The provision was sponsored by Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska

end

 

This is quite a shocker as Toys R Us may close up to 200 stores amid collapsing sales.  This is happening before Christmas.

(courtesy zerohedge)

I will see you WEDNESDAY night

HARVEY

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