Jan 26/GOLD DOWN $11.00 TO $1352.00 AFTER REBOUNDING FROM $1348//SILVER ALSO REBOUNDS NICELY FROM $17.30 TO CLOSE AT $1742/GOLD EFP’S FOR TODAY: 8445 CONTRACTS/EFP’S ISSUANCE FOR SILVER: 2748 CONTRACTS/THE DOLLAR CONTINUES IT DOWNWARD TRAJECTORY FINISHING JUST ABOVE 89.00/THE 10 YR USA BOND CONTINUES TO FALL WITH THE YIELD NOW AT 2.66% AND THAT IS IN DANGEROUS TERRITORY/MORE BAD NEWS FOR TRUMP AS THE 4TH QUARTER GDP FIRST READING FALLS TO 2.6% INSTEAD OF THE PROJECTED 4 TO 5%/ MORE SWAMP NEWS/

 

 

GOLD: $1352.00 DOWN $11.00

Silver: $17.42 DOWN 21 cents

Closing access prices:

Gold $1350.80

silver: $17.44

SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: FIRST FIX 10 15 PM EST (2:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SECOND FIX: 2:15 AM EST (6:15 SHANGHAI LOCAL TIME)

SHANGHAI FIRST GOLD FIX: $1361.58 DOLLARS PER OZ

NY PRICE OF GOLD AT EXACT SAME TIME: $1352.20

PREMIUM FIRST FIX: $9.38

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SECOND SHANGHAI GOLD FIX: $1368.09

NY GOLD PRICE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1355.75

Premium of Shanghai 2nd fix/NY:$8.30

SHANGHAI REJECTS NY /LONDON PRICING OF GOLD

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LONDON FIRST GOLD FIX: 5:30 am est $1354.35

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME: $1354.35

LONDON SECOND GOLD FIX 10 AM: $1353.15

NY PRICING AT THE EXACT SAME TIME. $1353.10

For comex gold:

JANUARY/

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR JANUARY CONTRACT: 1 NOTICE(S) FOR 100 OZ.

TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR: 696 FOR 69600 OZ (2.1648 TONNES),

For silver:

jANUARY

1 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

5,000 OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 728 for 3,640,000 oz

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Bitcoin: BID $10,369/OFFER $10,469  DOWN $722 (morning)

 Bitcoin: BID/   $10,913/   $11,013 offer down $177  (CLOSING/4 PM)

end

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total open interest FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 1456 contracts from 205,874 FALLING TO 204,418 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S GOOD 13 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING.  OBVIOUSLY WE HAD SOME COMEX LIQUIDATION. HOWEVER, WE WERE AGAIN NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD ANOTHER HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE:  2698 EFP’S FOR MARCH AND 50  FOR FEBRUARY(SOMEBODY BADLY NEEDS PHYSICAL AND HAS TO GO TO LONDON TO GET IT) AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THUS TOTAL ISSUANCE OF 2748 CONTRACTS. HOWEVER THE MOVEMENT ACROSS TO LONDON IS NOT AS SEVERE AS IN GOLD AS THERE SEEMS TO BE  MAJOR PLAYERS WILLING TO TAKE ON THE BANKS AT THE COMEX. STILL, WITH THE TRANSFER OF 2748 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S.

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/ STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF JANUARY:

43,410 CONTRACTS (FOR 19 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 43,410 CONTRACTS OR 217.050 MILLION OZ: AVERAGE PER DAY: 2285 CONTRACTS OR 11.423 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH:  217.05 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 30.07% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION

RESULT: A SMALL SIZED LOSS IN OI COMEX DESPITE THE 13 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE.  WE HOWEVER HAD A HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2748 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER . FROM THE CME DATA 2748 EFP’S WERE ISSUED FOR TODAY  FOR A DELIVERABLE FORWARD CONTRACT OVER IN LONDON WITH A FIAT BONUS. WE REALLY GAINED 1292 OI CONTRACTS i.e. 2748 open interest contracts headed for London (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A DECREASE OF 1456  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE OF SILVER OF 13 CENTS AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $17.63 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX.

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by just OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.022 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 146% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT JANUARY MONTH/ THEY FILED: 1 NOTICE(S) FOR 5,000 OZ OF SILVER

In gold, the open interest FELL  BY A HUMONGOUS 24,817 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 573,135 DESPITE THE GOOD SIZED RISE IN PRICE OF GOLD WITH YESTERDAY’S TRADING ($5.80). IN ANOTHER HUGE DEVELOPMENT, WE RECEIVED THE TOTAL NUMBER OF GOLD EFP’S ISSUED FOR FRIDAY AND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED  8445 CONTRACTS OF WHICH FEBRUARY SAW 7766 CONTRACTS ISSUED AND  APRIL SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 679 CONTRACTS.    The new OI for the gold complex rests at 581,778. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. DUE TO THE DELAY IN THE RELEASE OF YESTERDAY’S DATA YOU CAN BET THE FARM THAT THEY HAVE DELAYED THE RELEASE OF MANY EFPS. DEMAND FOR GOLD INTENSIFIES GREATLY AS WE CONTINUE TO WITNESS A HUGE NUMBER OF EFP TRANSFERS TOGETHER WITH THE MASSIVE INCREASE IN GOLD COMEX OI  TOGETHER WITH  THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF GOLD OUNCES STANDING FOR JANUARY COMEX. EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER (BIG RISE IN BOTH GOFO AND SIFO) AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES. IN ESSENCE TODAY WE HAVE A LOSS OF 16,372  CONTRACTS: 24,817 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND A GOOD SIZED  8445 OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. EXPECT HUGE NUMBERS OF EFP’S TO BE ISSUED AS WE APPROACH FIRST DAY NOTICE IN THE GOLD FEB COMEX CONTRACT, WEDNESDAY JAN 31.2018

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 20,747 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S/ GOLD(EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY STARTING WITH FIRST DAY NOTICE: 193,663 CONTRACTS OR 19.366 MILLION OZ OR 602.363 TONNES (19 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 10,192 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY OR 1,019,200 OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :   SO FAR THIS MONTH IN 17 TRADING DAYS: IN  TONNES: 602 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2200 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 602/2200 TONNES =  27.36% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN JANUARY ALONE.

Result: A  STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE GOOD SIZED RISE IN PRICE IN GOLD TRADING ON YESTERDAY ($5.80). IT IS WITHOUT A DOUBT THAT MANY OF THE DEPARTED COMEX LONGS ARE WAITING TO RECEIVE A PRIVATE EFP CONTRACT FOR EITHER FEBRUARY OR APRIL AND THESE GUYS ARE STILL NEGOTIATING THEIR DEAL. WE HAD ANOTHER GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 8445 AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX AND YET WE ALSO OBSERVED A HUGE DELIVERY MONTH FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER. I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 8445 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A NET LOSS IN OPEN INTEREST OF 16,372 contracts ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

8445 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND  24,817 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the LOSS in total oi equates to 77.19 TONNES). ON MONDAY WE SHOULD SEE A HUGE INCREASE IN EFP’S DUE TO THE HUMONGOUS LONGS THAT HAVE DEPARTED THE COMEX AND THEY AWAIT PATIENTLY FOR THE FIAT BONUS PLUS A LONDON BASED FORWARD CONTRACT.

we had: 1 notice(s) filed upon for 100 oz of gold.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD

With gold down $11.00, we had no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/

Inventory rests tonight: 849.32 tonnes.

SLV/ 

A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ WITH SILVER UP TODAY AND YESTERDAY, THEY COULD ONLY MUSTER A GAIN OF 848,00 OZ AT THE SLV /

INVENTORY RESTS AT 313.896 MILLION OZ/

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in silver FELL BY A SMALL 1456 contracts from 205,874 UP TO 204,418 (AND now A LITTLE FURTHER FROM  THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET ON FRIDAY/APRIL 21/2017 AT 234,787) DESPITE  THE GOOD RISE  IN PRICE OF SILVER  (13 CENTS WITH RESPECT TO  YESTERDAY’S TRADING).   OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE ANOTHER GOOD 2748 PRIVATE EFP’S FOR MARCH AND FEBRUARY  (WE DO NOT GET A LOOK AT THESE CONTRACTS AS IT IS PRIVATE BUT THE CFTC DOES AUDIT THEM) AND 0 EFP’S FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS .  EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. WE HAD ZERO COMEX SILVER COMEX LIQUIDATION. IF WE TAKE THE  OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF  1456 CONTRACTS TO THE 2748 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S WE OBTAIN A GAIN OF 1292 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  WE STILL HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES THAT ARE STANDING FOR METAL IN JANUARY (SEE BELOW). THE NET GAIN TODAY IN OZ ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 6.46 MILLION OZ!!!

RESULT: A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE GOOD SIZED RISE  OF 13 CENTS IN PRICE (WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING). BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER STRONG 2748 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE GOOD  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR JANUARY, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER INTENSIFIES AS WE WITNESS MAJOR BANK SHORT COVERING ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASES IN GOFO AND SIFO RATES INDICATING SCARCITY.

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late THURSDAY night/FRIDAY morning: Shanghai closed UP 9.82 points or 0.28% /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 499.67 pts or 1.53% / The Nikkei closed DOWN 37.61 POINTS OR 0.16%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.07%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed  UP at 6.3277/Oil UP to 65.59 dollars per barrel for WTI and 70.35 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREED .   ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.3277. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST  THE ONSHORE YUAN AT 6.3256//ONSHORE YUAN MUCH STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR/OFF SHORE MUCH STRONGER TO THE DOLLAR/. THE DOLLAR (INDEX) IS  MUCH WEAKER AGAINST ALL MAJOR CURRENCIES. CHINA IS EXTREMELY  HAPPY TODAY.(STRONG CURRENCY AND STRONG MARKETS )

3a)THAILAND/SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

Our bankers were not to thrilled with Kuroda’s optimistic comments as this causes gold/silver to rise despite the obvious raid orchestrated by the crooks

( zerohedge)

3 c CHINA

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

SWITZERLAND

The Swiss balance sheet contains a huge $11,589.01 of American equities.  In total: over 100 billion USA.

This is the riskiest of assets to purchase.  Jordan, chief of SNB did not buy gold because there is none.  He could have bought sovereign bonds but he did not nor did he buy any corporate bonds.

( Kevin Muir/Macro Tourist blog)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

7. OIL ISSUES

i)Will the huge increase in shall production hurt the Saudi’s oil plans?  Seems that the minister is quite annoyed at all of those questions reporters are asking them on this issue

( Nick Cunningham/Oil Price.com)

ii)With the huge increase in oil price, one would expect rig counts to rise.  The answer is correct, as the the counts rose the most in 10 months and it is now at record highs.

( zerohedge)

8. EMERGING MARKET

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)A history lesson to us:  why the USA confiscated gold in 1933

( Alex Pollock/Clear Markets/Washington/GATA)

ii)Mike Kosares explains why gold will rise and outpace other prices during a hyperinflation

a must read..

( Mike Kosares/USAgold/GATA)

iii)This is a good one:  The Empire Club is a very prestigious forum and rarely does a gold bug get to present anything.  However Nick Barisheff was invited and he detailed the gold price manipulation to our banker friends (plus others) listening to his talk

( GATA/Nick Barisheff)

iv)this ought to be good for cryptocurrencies:  A popular Japanese exchange has halted withdrawals.

( zerohedge)

v)From the above story: it is the biggest theft in crypto history as over 400 million dollars worth of cryptocurrencies have been stolen from NEM, a very popular Japanese crypto exchange

( zerohedge)

vi)Here is a novel way to steal crypto, the old fashioned way: armed robbery.  They stormed an Ontario based bitcoin firm but failed to make off with any bitcoin
( zerohedge)

vii)Credit Suisse sees rising gold prices will drive the top tier gold stocks higher.  Their top pick is my favourite Agnico Eagle

( Paul Ausick/Credit Suisse)

vii)SWAMP STORIES

a)The FBI wanted a special counsel for Hillary’s email probe but they feared if she want the presidency, the feared for her wrath and that is why they backed off..this is what next texts revealed

( zerohedge)

b)We can now state that we had an anti Trump FBI official as the leaker to the Wall Street Journal and a Washington Post reporter

( zerohedge)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

i)Trading this morning:  Michael Harnett announces the biggest sell signal in 5 years

(courtesy zerohedge/Michael Harnett/B of America).

ii)Trading in the dollar today:  it resumes its downward trajectory. The markets are just not buying Trump’s remarks:

( zerohedge)

iii)Trump is not going to like this.  He has been tooting his horn that Q4GDP was heading for a 3% gain. However the BEA reported that instead of coming in at 4 to 5%, it missed expectations badly coming in at 2.6% largely due to the soaring deficit which is a negative to GDP

( zerohedge)

iv)Not good! core durable goods orders tumbled .3%month over month.  Core durable goods takes away from aircraft orders and war spending

( zerohedge)

v)Last night:  Trump offers the Democrats a path to citizenship for 1.8 million DACA dreamers in exchange for complete wall funding

( zerohedge)

vi)Dollar longs are not too happy with this:  Trump proposes a defense budget increase of 13%

( zerohedge)

Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest  FELL BY A HUGE 24,817 CONTRACTS DOWN to an OI level of 573,135 DESPITE THE GOOD SIZED RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($5.80 GAIN WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING).   WE HAD CONSIDERABLE COMEX GOLD LIQUIDATION. HOWEVER THE CME REPORTS THAT  THE BANKERS ISSUED ANOTHER STRONG COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS. WE HAD A GOOD SIZED 7766 EFP’S ISSUED FOR FEBRUARY  AND 679 EFP’s  FOR APRIL:  TOTAL  8445 CONTRACTS. THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON FORWARD… THE COMEX IS NOW AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD!!

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST TODAY: 16,372 OI CONTRACTS IN THAT 8445 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST 24,817 COMEX CONTRACTS. NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 16,272 contracts OR 1,627,200   OZ OR 50.60 TONNES

Result: A  STRONG  DECREASE IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST DESPITE THE HUGE RISE IN YESTERDAY’S GOLD TRADING ($5.80.) WE HAD CONSIDERABLE COMEX GOLD LIQUIDATION.  TOTAL OPEN INTEREST LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 16,3712 OI CONTRACTS..

We have now entered the active contract month of JANUARY. The open interest for the front month of JANUARY saw it’s open interest FALL by 2 contracts FALLING TO 2.  We had 3 notices served upon yesterday so we GAINED 1  contract or an additional 100 oz of gold will   stand AT THE COMEX in this non active month of January as these guys joined others in obtaining a London based forward contract.

FEBRUARY saw a LOSS of 52,168 contacts DOWN to 105,365.  March saw a GAIN of 164 contracts UP to 1818.  April saw a GAIN of 24,732 contracts UP to 329,502.

We had 1 notice(s) filed upon today for 100 oz

PRELIMINARY VOLUME TODAY ESTIMATED;  not available

FINAL NUMBERS CONFIRMED FOR YESTERDAY:  698,050

comex gold volumes are RISING AGAIN

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI FELL  BY A SMALL 1456  CONTRACTS FROM 205,874 DOWN TO 204,418 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S GOOD SIZED 13 CENT GAIN WE WERE ALSO INFORMED THAT WE HAD ANOTHER GIGANTIC SIZED 2698 EMERGENCY EFP’S FOR MARCH ISSUED BY OUR BANKERS (WITH 50 EFP CONTRACTS FOR FEBRUARY..AS SOMEBODY WAS IN URGENT NEED OF METAL AND NEEDED TO GO TO LONDON TO GET IT  AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS)  TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON: THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 2748.   THE SILVER BOYS HAVE STARTED TO MIGRATE TO LONDON FROM THE START OF DELIVERY MONTH AND CONTINUING RIGHT THROUGH UNTIL FIRST DAY NOTICE JUST LIKE WE ARE WITNESSING TODAY. USUALLY WE NOTED THAT CONTRACTION IN OI OCCURRED ONLY DURING THE LAST WEEK OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AS WE HAVE JUST SEEN IN GOLD TODAY. THIS PROCESS HAS JUST BEGUN IN EARNEST IN SILVER STARTING IN SEPTEMBER 2017. HOWEVER, IN GOLD, WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING THIS FOR THE PAST 2 YEARS. NICK LAIRD WAS KIND ENOUGH TO SUPPLY US THE TOTAL FOR 2017 GOLD EFP’S AND IT WAS 6600 TONNES FOR THE ENTIRE YEAR.  WE HAD  SOME LONG COMEX SILVER LIQUIDATION AND A HUGE SIZED RISE IN TOTAL SILVER OI. WE ARE ALSO WITNESSING A FAIR AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR COMEX METAL IN THIS NON ACTIVE JANUARY AS WELL AS THAT CONTINUAL MIGRATION OF EFPS OVER TO LONDON. ON A PERCENTAGE BASIS THERE ARE MORE EFP’S ISSUED FOR GOLD THAN SILVER.  ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 1292 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS:

1456 CONTRACT LOSS AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 2748 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN TWO EXCHANGES: 1292 CONTRACTS

We are now in the poor non active delivery month of January and here the OI LOST 0 contracts REMAINING AT 3.  We had 1 notice served upon yesterday, so we GAINED 1 contract or an additional 5,000 oz will stand for delivery  AT THE COMEX  AND QUEUE JUMPING CONTINUES

February saw a GAIN OF 54 OI contracts RISING TO 200. The March contract LOST 3646 contracts DOWN to 138,390.

We had 1 notice(s) filed for NIL 5,000 for the January 2018 contract for silver

INITIAL standings for JANUARY

Jan 26/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 NIL
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
   nil OZ
No of oz served (contracts) today
1 notice(s)
100 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
3 contracts
(300 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
696 notices
69600 oz
2,1648 tonnes
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz
we had 0 kilobar transaction/
We had 0 inventory movement at the dealer accounts
total inventory movement into the dealer accounts:  nil oz
we had 0 withdrawals into the customer account:
total withdrawal: NIL  oz
we had 0 customer deposit
total deposits: nil oz
we had 1 adjustments
 i) out of DELAWARE, 2,339.096 oz was removed from the CUSTOMER and this landed into the DEALER account of the HSBC
total registered or dealer gold:  566,798.627 oz or 17.629 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   9,313,221.043 oz 289.68 tones

For JANUARY:
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 1 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JANUARY. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (696) x 100 oz or 69600 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN. (4 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (1 x 100 oz per contract) equals 69,900 oz, the number of ounces standing in this active month of JANUARY

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JANUARY contract month:

No of notices served (696 x 100 oz or ounces + {(4)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (1 x 100 oz which equals 69,900 oz standing in this active delivery month of JANUARY (2.1710 tonnes). THERE IS 17.629 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY SO FAR.

WE GAINED 1 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 100 OZ WILL STAND IN THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JANUARY

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ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR JANUARY 2017, THE INITIAL GOLD STANDING: 3.904 TONNES STANDING

BY THE END OF THE MONTH: FINAL: 3.555 TONNES STOOD FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS THE REMAINDER HAD TRANSFERRED OVER TO LONDON FORWARDS.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

I have a sneaky feeling that these withdrawals of gold in kilobars are being used in the hypothecating process and are being used in the raiding of gold!
The gold comex is an absolute fraud. The use of kilobars and exact weights makes the data totally absurd and fraudulent! To me, the only thing that makes sense is the fact that “kilobars: are entries of hypothecated gold sent to other jurisdictions so that they will not be short with their underwritten derivatives in that jurisdiction. This would be similar to the rehypothecated gold used by Jon Corzine at MF Global.

IN THE LAST 15 MONTHS 65 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE DECEMBER DELIVERY MONTH

DECEMBER FINAL standings

Jan 26 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 2,338,047.240 oz
BRINKS
CNT
HSBC
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil
oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
 1,186,241.510
 JPMORGAN RESUMES DEPOSITS
SCOTIA
No of oz served today (contracts)
1
CONTRACT(S)
(5,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
2 contracts
(10,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 728 contracts

(3,640,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had no inventory movement at the dealer side of things

total inventory movement dealer: nil oz

we had 1 inventory deposits into the customer account

i) JPMORGAN  Deposit:  599,110.110  oz

ii) into Scotia: 587,131.400

total inventory deposits: 1,186,241.510 oz

we had 3 withdrawals from the customer account;

i) out of Brinks: 302,956.900 oz

ii) Out of CNT: 1193,538.740  oz

iii) out of HSBC: 841,551,600 oz

total withdrawals;  2,338,047.240 oz

we had 0 adjustment

total dealer silver:  45.461 million

total dealer + customer silver:  245.996 million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the JANUARY. contract month is represented by 1 contract(s) FOR 5,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JANUARY., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 728 x 5,000 oz = 3,640,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JAN. (3) and the number of notices served upon today (1 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JANUARY contract month: 728(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JANUARY(3) -number of notices served upon today (1)x 5000 oz equals 3,650,000 oz of silver standing for the JANUARY contract month. This is VERY GOOD for this NONACTIVE delivery month of JANUARY.  WE GAINED 1 CONTRACT OR AN ADDITIONAL 5,000  OZ WILL  STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JANUARY AS QUEUE JUMPING CONTINUES AS WE PROCEED TO MONTH’S END.

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR THE JANUARY 2017 CONTRACT WE HAD 3.790 MILLION OZ STAND.

THE FINAL STANDING: 3,730 MILLION OZ

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

I almost fell from my chair:  we received volumes at the comex and they were on time

ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: not available yet

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY:  140,940 CONTRACTS

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 140,940 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO  520 MILLION OZ OR 74.53% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -2.25% (Jan 24/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -0.45% to NAV (Jan 24/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -2.25%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ territory at -0.36%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail but being rescued by Sprott.
Sprott WINS hostile 3.1 billion bid to take over Central Fund of Canada

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA): NAV FALLS TO 3.42%: NAV 14.08/TRADING 13.60//DISCOUNT 3.42%

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

jan 26/2018/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 849.32 tonnes

jan 25/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 849.32 tonnes

Jan 24/A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.65 TONNES OF GOLD INTO GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 849.32 TONNES

Jan 23/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY DESPITE GOLD’S RISE/INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.67 TONNES

Jan 22/a huge deposit of 5.71 tonnes of gold despite a drop in price/inventory rests at 846.67 tonnes. In 3 trading days, the GLD has added 17.71 tonnes/the bankers are now in trouble!!

Jan 19/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 840.76 tonnes

Jan 18/SHOCKINGLY A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 11.80 TONNES WITH GOLD DOWN ALMOST $12.00/INVENTORY RESTS AT 840.76

Jan 17/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 828.96 tonnes

Jan 16/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 828.96 TONNES

Jan 12/no changes in inventory at the GLD despite the rise in gold price/inventory rests at 828.96 tonnes

Jan 11/ANOTHER IDENTICAL WITHDRAWAL OF 2.95 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 828.96 TONNES

Jan 10/with gold up today, a strange withdrawal of 2.95 tonnes/inventory rests at 831.91 tonnes

Jan 9/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 834.88 tonnes

Jan 8/with gold falling by a tiny $1.40 and this being after 12 consecutive gains, today they announce another 1.44 tonnes of gold withdrawal from the GLD/

Jan 5/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.32 TONNES

Jan 4/2018/no change in gold inventory at the GLD/Inventory rests at 836.32 tonnes

Jan 3/a huge withdrawal of 1.18 tonnes of gold from the GLD/Inventory rests at 836.32 tonnes

Jan 2/2018/no changes in gold inventory at the GLD/inventory rests at 837.50 tonnes

Dec 29/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 837.50 TONNES

Dec 28/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 837.50 TONNES

Dec 27/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ INVENTORY RESTS AT 837.50 TONNES

Dec 26/no change in gold inventory at the GLD

Dec 22/ A DEPOSIT OF 1.48 TONNES OF GOLD INTO GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 837.50 TONNES

Dec 21′ NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.02 TONNES

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Jan 26/2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 849.32 tonnes

*IN LAST 316 TRADING DAYS: 91.83 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 250 TRADING DAYS: A NET 65.48 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO GLD INVENTORY.

end

Now the SLV Inventory

Jan 26.2018/inventory rests at 313,896 oz

Jan 25/with silver up today and yesterday, the SLV could only muster a gain of 848,000 oz

Inventory rests at 313.896 oz

jan 24/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY DESPITE THE GOOD ADVANCE IN PRICE/INVENTORY RESTS AT 313.048 MILLION OZ/

Jan 23/ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.131 MILLION OZ OF SILVER DESPITE THE TINY LOSS/THE CROOKS ARE USING THE INVENTORY TO RAID ON SILVER.

JAN 22.2018/with silver down by 5 cents/ the crooks at the SLV liquidate 1.321 million oz of silver/inventory rests at 314.179 million oz/

Jan 19/ no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 315.500 million oz/

jan 18/A WITHDRAWAL OF 848,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.500 MILLION OZ/

Jan 17/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 316.348 million oz/

Jan 16/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.348  MILLION OZ

Jan 12/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 316.348 million oz/

Jan 11/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.348 MILLION OZ/

Jan 10/with silver up again, we had a huge withdrawal of 1.227 million oz from the SLV/inventory rests at 316.348 million oz

Jan 9/a withdrawal of 848,000 oz from the SLV/Inventory rests at 317.575 million oz/

jan 8/no change in silver inventory at the SLV/Inventory rests at 318.423 million oz/

Jan 5/DESPITE NO CHANGE IN SILVER PRICING, WE HAD A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.026 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.423 MILLION OZ.

Jan 4.2018/a slight withdrawal of 180,000 oz and this would be to pay for fees/inventory rests at 320.449 million oz/

Jan 3/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.629 MILLION OZ.

Jan 2/WITH SILVER UP DRAMATICALLY THESE PAST 4 TRADING DAYS, THE FOLLOWING MAKES NO SENSE: WE HAD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.83 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV

INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.629 MILLION OZ/

Dec 29/no changes in silver inventory at the SLV/inventory rests at 323.459 million oz/

Dec 28/DESPITE THE RISE IN SILVER AGAIN BY 13 CENTS, WE LOST ANOTHER 1,251,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SILVER.

Dec 27/WITH SILVER UP AGAIN BY 17 CENTS, WE LOST ANOTHER 802,000 OZ OF SILVER INVENTORY/WHAT CROOKS/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.780 MILLION OZ/

Dec 26/no change in silver inventory at the SLV./Inventory rests at 325.582

Dec 21/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.227 MILLION OZ/

.

Jan 25/2017:

Inventory 313.896 million oz

end

6 Month MM GOFO
Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration

+ 1.78%
12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.16%

end

At 3:30 pm we receive a totally useless COT report which gives us position levels of our major players at the comex.  Of course, the liability of the bankers is much greater than indicated due to the huge number of EFP’s issued:

Gold COT Report – Futures
Large Speculators Commercial Total
Long Short Spreading Long Short Long Short
305,812 91,128 64,523 161,458 396,010 531,793 551,661
Change from Prior Reporting Period
3,949 976 -8,647 3,256 5,301 -1,442 -2,370
Traders
180 96 87 46 57 269 202
 
Small Speculators  
Long Short Open Interest  
50,628 30,760 582,421  
1,530 2,458 88  
non reportable positions Change from the previous reporting period
COT Gold Report – Positions as of Tuesday, January 23, 2018

Our large speculators

Those large specs that have been long in gold added another 3949 contracts to their long side

those large specs that have been short in gold added a tiny 976 contracts to their short side

Our commercials

those commercials that have been long in gold added (??) a huge 3256 contracts to their long side

those commercials that have been short in gold added another 5301 contracts to their short side and this does not include all the EFP transfers to London.  The obligation still rests with the bankers on these EFP contracts but the obligation now rests in London

Our small specs

those small specs that have been long in gold added  1530 contracts to their long side

those small specs that have been short in gold added another 2458 contracts to their short side and they have been blown up by now.

and now for your silver COT

Silver COT Report: Futures
Large Speculators Commercial
Long Short Spreading Long Short
76,193 47,112 24,616 72,086 113,583
-3,673 4,458 2,914 3,730 -4,916
Traders
98 52 40 41 37
Small Speculators Open Interest Total
Long Short 199,985 Long Short
27,090 14,674 172,895 185,311
503 1,018 3,474 2,971 2,456
non reportable positions Positions as of: 157 115
Tuesday, January 23, 2018   © S

if the following is going on at the comex, it is also going on in London

it sure looks like we are getting silver capitulation by our bankers

Our large speculators

those large specs that have been long in silver pitched a surprising 3673 contracts

those large specs that have been short in silver added 4458 contacts to their short side >>??

Our commercials

those commercials that have been long in silver added a huge  3730 contracts to their long side

those commercials that have been short in silver covered a net 4916 contracts and most of these were transferred to London

Our small specs

those small specs that have been long in silver added a small 503 contracts to their long side

those small specs that have been short in silver added 1018 contracts to their short side.

end

Major gold/silver trading /commentaries for FRIDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.

GOLD/SILVER

 

Davos – My Personal Experience of the $100,000 Event, $60 Burgers, Massive Inequality and the Blockchain Revolution

January 26

– Davos elite hear warnings of complacency akin to 2007 as economic risks growbr /> – Toxic mix of infallible belief, arrogance, megalomania and economic ignorance
– Some express concern economies are vulnerable due to imbalances, trade, geo-political tensions
– Soros: Trump creating ‘mafia state’ & ‘set on a course towards nuclear war’ with N Korea
– Bond bear market, rising interest rates and massive $233 trillion debt are some of the many threats to global stability
– Davos theme explores massive inequality across the globe while eating $60 hamburgers
– Thousand private jets fly as some attendees lecture poor and middle classes about their fossil fuel consumption

– Blockchain has potential to revolutionise the world of money and foster equality – if not co-opted by elites 
– Better spending $100,000 on physical gold stored in vault in Switzerland then $100k to attend Davos

By Jan Skoyles. Editor Mark O’Byrne

Two years ago I was fortunate enough to be invited to the World Economic Forum at Davos. The invite and events were paid for but everything else was not. This gave me an interesting insight into how the other half (read: 1%) live whilst not enjoying all the spoils of the forum.

Davos for 51 weeks of the year is a fairly bog-standard Swiss ski resort, no more special than others in the surrounding areas. But when the World Economic Forum and world’s elites are in town a normal hotel room suddenly costs $500 and you have to hand over $60 for a hamburger.

Needless to say I found myself a hotel room an hour’s drive away from Davos and stocked up at the hotel breakfast.

We hired ourselves a little Vauxhall Astra and set-off for Davos each day. On the drive into Davos you are pulled over at various check- points by armed police who are clearly wondering why someone in their ski gear (it’s the only warm thing I own) and a tiny rental is heading in that direction. You have to prove that you have a access to the WEF events whilst passport and your car are checked to ensure you’re not going to disrupt the air of calm and power.

The cost of securing Davos is reportedly over $9 million. The whole time you are proving that you are not a security threat multiple helicopters are passing over head bringing those that the armed men are protecting, straight into the heart of the mountain village. Here shops have been converted into hubs by big banks and tech companies looking to host the global elite and black town-cars wait in disabled bays for their clients to finish the latest ground-breaking speech or key meeting.


Davos elite jet into Davos while lecturing humanity to cut down on fossil fuel.
Source: Twitter via Europa Guardian (@EuGu_) January 21, 2018

The cost of admission to Davos is made up of the membership fee (over $50,000) and the actual annual ticket (around $20,000). Of course the majority of individuals attending are not covering these costs (or any other costs during the week), they are politicians, wealthy business men and other powerful people hosted by large corporates looking to curry favour.

The 48th Forum of Davos is running under the theme of “Creating a Shared Future in a Fractured World”.

The people who regularly attend Davos are certainly good at talking about those who will never even hear about Davos, let alone attend themselves. But it is tricky to imagine how a group of people who don’t blink at a free ticket worth nearly $100,000 (taking sundries into account) are able to relate to the mass of humanity who have so little.

This is a common criticism of Davos. This year, particular heed should be taken. At the start of the week bank CEOs, Nobel prize wining economists and top investors expressed concern that markets were too complacent about the current state of play. Whilst many market signals suggest we are well-past the financial crisis, cracks are beginning to show. Indeed there are growing signs of “irrational exuberance” and bubbles in stock markets as explored in our podcast released yesterday.

These levels of complacency have not been seen since 2007, about the time that Roubini, Shiller, GoldCore (trading as Go ld and Silver Investments Limited) and a few others were shouting for everyone to wake up. Indeed, we at GoldCore began warning about surging debt levels and the risk of a financial crisis in 2005.

The global elite should pay attention to this given the theme of the year. Since the financial crisis we have seen the number of billionaires more than double. We are also in the worst period of inequality since 1820, according to the OECD. This is disturbing, particularly for those at Davos flying the flag for globalisation, reduced protectionism and increased trade.

“We are seeing a paradox of high returns and high anxiety,” BlackRock chief exec Larry Fink wrote in his annual letter to the heads of the world’s biggest companies. “Since the financial crisis, those with capital have reaped enormous benefits. At the same time, many individuals across the world are facing a combination of low rates, low wage growth, and inadequate retirement systems.”

As Bank of England Chief economist Anthony Haldane reminds us, this is bad news for the Davos Few, there is rising evidence that extreme inequality harms, durably and significantly, the stability of the financial system and growth in the economy.”

Yet, where is the incentive to pay attention? Stock and bond markets are at record highs (as are property markets where most billionaires reside), corporate taxes in the United States and Britain are falling, and every major economy is performing well – superficially at least. Billionaires and leaders of the West have very little to complain about.


Click to listen to podcast

But they must. The financial system can no longer afford to be celebrated whilst simultaneously ignoring the many imbalances and risks. Many are now warning against complacency and urging us to learn the lessons of the past and from financial history – distant and more recent. Of particular concern this year is the rise in populism and how this may hinder attempts to avoid another financial disaster and may create a geo-political disaster in the form of a World War.

Bond bear market is underway 

As we discussed earlier this week, the bond bear market has been signalled by Bill Gross. He has now been joined by Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio who has warned that a rise in yields could spark the biggest crisis for fixed-income investors in almost 40 years. He confirmed that we are now in a bond bear market, that could get worse.

 “A 1 percent rise in bond yields will produce the largest bear market in bonds that we have seen since 1980 to 1981,”

This isn’t the first time Dalio has expressed such a concern about the bond market, Zerohedge were quick to remind us:

Readers may recall that when addressing the NY Fed in October 2016, Dalio made virtually the same prediction when he commented on the bond market’s DV01:

… it would only take a 100 basis point rise in Treasury bond yields to trigger the worst price decline in bonds since the 1981 bond market crash. And since those interest rates are embedded in the pricing of all investment assets, that would send them all much lower.

Dalio is referring to the record DV01 in the bond market, which according to the latest OFR report released in December, has risen to $1.2 trillion: that’s the P&L loss from a 100bps rise in rates.

The watchdog found that “valuations are also elevated” in bond markets. Of particular interest is the OFR’s discussion on duration. Picking up where we left off in June 2016, and calculates that “at current duration levels, a 1 percentage point increase in interest rates would lead to a decline of almost $1.2 trillion in the securities underlying the index.”

The following includes excerpts from a Bloomberg article highlighting the key concerns from some of the Davos attendees this year.

One of the most interesting was Jes Staley, CEO of Barclays expressing concern that we are returning to 2006:

“I do feel it’s a little bit like 2006, when we were all talking whether we’ve solved the riddle of economic crises.” 

CHINA

The world’s second-largest economy surprised on the upside through 2017, but is beginning to show renewed signs of cooling. A plan to reduce risk in the financial system has slowed credit growth, but the country’s debt pile, equivalent to about 264 percent of gross domestic product in 2017, remains a concern.

How the Chinese authorities rein in borrowing without tipping the economy over will be one of the year’s biggest challenges.

“I think of China as probably being the epicenter if we got hit by a global recession,” said Rogoff.

GLOBAL DEBT

It’s not just China. Global debt rose to a record $233 trillion in the third quarter of 2017, more than $16 trillion higher from the end of 2016, according to the Institute of International Finance. Private non-financial sector debt hit all-time highs in Canada, France, Hong Kong, South Korea, Switzerland and Turkey.

As interest rates begin to increase, borrowers might start to feel pain even though the ratio of debt-to-GDP has fallen as growth accelerated.

“We’ve seen the world leverage up,” said Tim Adams, the institute’s president who will be in Davos. “It’s been an incredibly low rate environment which I suspect is going to change.”

INTEREST RATES

The trigger for the end to that environment could be an inflationary surge that forces central banks to dump their piecemeal approach to reversing the emergency stimulus of the past decade.

Staley believes we’re currently in a depression-era style system:

We’ve got a monetary policy that’s still in the remnants of the depression era. We’ve got very little capacity in the capital markets to deal with a real move in interest rates.”

The Bloomberg article goes onto say:

With economies expanding so quickly, commodities prices are picking up and manufacturing gauges are pointing to supply constraints. The U.S. also just slashed taxes, and some big employers, like Walmart Inc., are beginning to lift wages.

“We could start to see inflation rising more than most people think in financial markets which means the Fed and other central banks will have to raise rates sooner and faster,” said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Markit. “That could rattle things up.”

Anne Richards, chief executive of M&G Investments, also told Bloomberg separately about her concerns for potential for higher interest rates. “If interest rates go up meaningfully over the next 12 months, there will be a bunch of people who have borrowed money who will not be able to pay it back,” she said. “Those people are out there, and the markets are not, in aggregate, pricing that.”

Rogoff said the “biggest vulnerability” in markets would be a sudden reversal in the trend toward lower inflation-adjusted borrowing costs.

Rogoff also stated:

“If interest rates go up even modestly, halfway to their normal level, you will see a collapse in the stock market…I don’t know how everything from art and bitcoin to stock prices will react as interest rates go up.”

The Doom-sayers of Davos 

Bloomberg also highlights the dangerous collision course that economics and politics are currently on. Sadly, many politicians believe they can manage one without considering the other. Economists are also guilty of this.

But with North Korea affecting sanctions, Brexit as uncertain as ever and Trump’s populist approach driving down the US dollar, there is little that can be ignored.

For all of the geopolitical risks considered below, leaders saw the risks rising:

Blockchain is forcing a wake-up call

Now this year they are being forced to consider how these geopolitical risks are affecting the many who have so little.

One of the main areas being discussed is the role of blockchain, the very technology that first grabbed the world’s attention because of bitcoin’s desire to operate beyond the world of the bankers and monetary and political elites.

Blockchain is the reason I was at Davos. The theme that year was ‘The Fourth Industrial Revolution’, possibly one of the more forward thinking and interesting topics we’ve seen.

There was a lot of chat about blockchain but a lot more about the dangers of bitcoin. Now both are being seen as a threat, and blockchain also as an opportunity.

Most of the world’s elites, from bank CEOs to central bankers refuse to touch bitcoin. The recent price activity has (they believe) vindicated their concerns about the asset. However, they are all putting in time and money into blockchain. Safe in the knowledge that it could end up disrupting their whole world.

Blockchain really is the leader of the next tech revolution. It has a huge amount of potential. However, the wheel wasn’t much use until you redesigned how you travelled. The same can be said for blockchain.

Blockchain’s potential will come to nothing if the systems, approach and mindset of the Davos elite does not change. Complacency around financial markets is dangerous. The system is clearly broken but until the elites realise that the current status quo is broken then their is little blockchain can do for them.

Blockchain demands accountability, transparency and validation. Can the Davos few cope with this?

No expensive burger will solve the next financial crisis

My memories of Davos are nothing like those of the elite.

No $60 burger passed my lips and I was forced to park in the supermarket rather than have a chauffeur pull-up and rescue me from the bitter cold. I was only given access to satellite events, not the main forum yet even there there was an air of arrogance that we could all fix the world’s problems.

My main takeaway is I’m unsure of the efficiencies achieved in a mountain resort that (at some points) was minus 18 degrees centigrade, takes a real effort to get to and is (financially, geographically and culturally) a world away from the main issues of the day.

This is where my concerns lie. We have not solved the financial crisis that was ultimately borne out of total hedonism, greed, infallibile belief, arrogance and economic ignorance. Yet here we see 2,500 global elite (including 70 heads of state and government) at an event, the cost to attend is well in excess of the average global citizen’s annual wage.

Whilst our leaders and great minds sit pretty in the snowy mountains of Switzerland we can be working to protect ourselves. Let’s be honest 48 years of Davos has not brought a huge amount of benefits to our day-to-day lives. Instead we have been forced to take charge of our finances and protect ourselves from the system.

Physical gold, that is allocated and segregated may well be stored in Switzerland but it cannot be debased or confiscated by the monetary elites. As they work to make the world more connected, more digital and at risk then our cash in the bank and digital assets in our online world are becoming increasingly vulnerable.

Ignore the noise coming out of Davos and focus on what we can control – earn more than we spend, diversify our assets, save with safe counter parties and protect our wealth with the insurance gold.

$100,000 worth of physical gold coins and bars stored in a vault a few miles from Davos is important financial insurance and it only costs the same amount as attending Davos!

END’

A history lesson to us:  why the USA confiscated gold in 1933

(courtesy Alex Pollock/Clear Markets/Washington/GATA)

Alex Pollock: Confiscation of gold by the federal government — a lesson

 Section: 

By Alex Pollock
Real Clear Markets, Washington
Thursday, January 25, 2018

Historically as well as now, people in America tried to protect themselves against the government’s devaluation of their dollars by holding gold; and formerly, by buying Treasury bonds which promised to pay in gold. The fundamental thought was and is the same that many holders of Bitcoin and other “cryptocurrencies” have now: Hold something that the government cannot devalue the way it can its official currency.

Unfortunately for such an otherwise logical strategy, governments, even democratic governments, when pushing comes to shoving, may use force to control and even take away what you thought you had.

The year 1933 and the new Franklin Roosevelt presidency provide vividly memorable, though little remembered, examples.

First the U.S. Treasury defaulted on its promises to pay gold bonds in gold; then under notable executive orders, the U.S. government confiscated the gold of American citizens and threatened them with prison if they didn’t turn it in. It moreover prohibited the future holding of any gold by Americans, an outrageous prohibition which lasted four decades, until 1974.

All this may seem unimaginable to many people today, perhaps including Bitcoin enthusiasts, but in fact happened. Said Roosevelt in explanation, “The issuance and control of the medium of exchange which we call ‘money’ is a high prerogative of government.” …

… For the remainder of the commentary:

https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2018/01/25/confiscation_of_gol…

END

Mike Kosares explains why gold will rise and outpace other prices during a hyperinflation

a must read..

(courtesy Mike Kosares/USAgold/GATA)

Mike Kosares: Why gold can beat hyperinflation

 Section: 

3:15p ET Thursday, January 25, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

USA Gold’s Mike Kosares, answering a question from the Netherlands, explains why gold prices are likely to outpace other prices during hyperinflation. Kosares’ commentary is headlined “RK Asks for Some Specifics on Gold as a Hedge Against Hyperinflation” and it’s posted at USA Gold here:

http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/2018/01/25/rk-asks-for-some-specifics-on…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

This is a good one:  The Empire Club is a very prestigious forum and rarely does a gold bug get to present anything.  However Nick Barisheff was invited and he detailed the gold price manipulation to our banker friends (plus others) listening to his talk

(courtesy GATA/Nick Barisheff)

Nick Barisheff: Gold price manipulation isn’t mere conspiracy theory anymore

 Section: 

7:51p ET Thursday, January 25, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

In an address this month to the Empire Club of Canada in Toronto, perhaps the country’s most esteemed public forum, Bullion Management Group founder, president, and chief executive officer Nick Barisheff said gold market manipulation is no longer mere conspiracy theory “promoted by gold bugs and organizations like GATA” but is becoming “self-evident.”

Barisheff described the suppression of the gold price through derivatives trading in which virtually no metal ever changes hands.

He quoted the deputy chairman of Russia’s central bank, Sergey Shvetsov, as saying, “The major gold-producing nations are tired of an international gold price that is determined in a synthetic trading environment having little to do with the physical gold market.”

Barisheff added that he expects Asia to overthrow that system.

His address is posted at the BMG internet site here —

http://bmg-group.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Macro-Trend-Changes-For-…

— and video of the address is posted at You Tube here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-5mOlPNi4XU

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

this ought to be good for cryptocurrencies:  A popular Japanese exchange has halted withdrawals.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Cryptocurrencies Tumble After Popular Japanese Exchange Halts Withdrawals

Update: A massive ($110 million) transfer from Coincheck’s Ripple wallet has sparked speculation that the exchange may have been hacked…though this apparently hasn’t impacted prices yet…

110 mil usd in (XRP) were sent from the Japanese cryptocurrency exchange Coincheck to an unknown address. Hacking suspected. https://twitter.com/xrpl_monitor/status/956729169295024128 

All major cryptocurrencies tumbled on Friday morning after Tokyo-based Coincheck – one of Japan’s biggest crypto exchanges – abruptly halted withdrawals, triggering a panic as investors feared the exchange may have experienced a Mt. Gox-style hack.

BTC

“Coincheck is a very well-known exchange in Japan,” said Hiroyuki Komiya, Chief Executive Officer of Tokyo-based Blockchain Technology Consulting. “We’ve seen several outages at various crypto exchanges recently, so the extent and seriousness of Coincheck’s halt isn’t yet clear. We’re all very eagerly awaiting to hear more detail on what’s happening.”

It has been almost four years since Mark Karpeles, Gox’s CEO, announced that his company was filing for bankruptcy after losing bitcoins worth hundreds of millions of dollars. The news ended a sharp rally that had briefly sent bitcoin above $1,200 – back then that was an all-time high – before ushering in a two-year bear market that would persist until early 2016.

The exchange said in a series of tweets that it had suspended all withdrawals, halted trading in all tokens except Bitcoin and stopped deposits into NEM coins. Employees at the exchange appeared to avoid Bloomberg‘s repeated calls and emails for comment.

“Investors and traders are very sensitive to any news involving the big exchanges,” said Peter Sin, a trader and co-head of the digital currency sub-committee at ACCESS, a Singapore-based cryptocurrency and blockchain industry association. “This will accelerate price declines.”

NEM, the 10th-largest cryptocurrency by market value, fell 15% in the 24 hours through 5:52 a.m. New York time, according to Coinmarketcap.com. Bitcoin dropped 6.5% and Ripple retreated 11%.

Cryptoone

Cryptocurrency exchanges, many of which operate with little to no regulation, have suffered a spate of outages and hacks amid the trading boom that propelled Bitcoin and its peers to record highs last year. As we pointed out, a recent survey found that 10% of all ICO tokens have been lost or stolen by hackers.

Still, the risk of a Mt.Gox repeat in Japan is small. In Japan is one of the world’s biggest and best regulated markets for cryptocurrencies, policy makers have introduced a licensing system to increase oversight of local venues, seeking to avoid another Mt. Gox-like collapse that nearly killed the crypto market back in 2014.

Additionally, Coincheck was yet to receive a license, according to the website of Japan’s financial regulator.

According to Bloomberg, Coincheck was founded in 2012 and had 71 employees as of July with headquarters in Tokyo’s Shibuya district, an area popular with startups that was also home to Mt. Gox, according to Coincheck’s website. Last year, the exchange began running commercials on national television featuring popular local comedian Tetsuro Degawa.

END

From the above story: it is the biggest theft in crypto history as over 400 million dollars worth of cryptocurrencies have been stolen from NEM, a very popular Japanese crypto exchange

(courtesy zerohedge)

“Biggest Theft In Crypto History”: Over $400MM Stolen From Japanese Crypto Exchange

Earlier today we reported that cryptocurrencies tumbled  overnight after one of the most popular – if unlicensed – Japanese exchanges, Coincheck, halted withdrawals of funds and cryptos amid broad confusion as to what prompted the halt. Additionally, Coincheck said it had stopped deposits into NEM coins, a hint that something was very wrong with what until last night was the 10th-largest cryptocurrency by market value, and which tumbled nearly 20% overnight, dragging the rest of the sector lower as news of the Coincheck fiasco spread.

Speculation was rife: “Coincheck is a very well-known exchange in Japan,” said Hiroyuki Komiya, Chief Executive Officer of Tokyo-based Blockchain Technology Consulting. “We’ve seen several outages at various crypto exchanges recently, so the extent and seriousness of Coincheck’s halt isn’t yet clear. We’re all very eagerly awaiting to hear more detail on what’s happening.”

We didn’t have long to wait: shortly after the halt, theories started to emerge as to what may have happened, with some speculating that the exchange may have been hacked after noticing that a massive ($110 million) transfer from Coincheck’s Ripple wallet:

110 mil usd in (XRP) were sent from the Japanese cryptocurrency exchange Coincheck to an unknown address. Hacking suspected. https://twitter.com/xrpl_monitor/status/956729169295024128 

And then, the worst case scenario was confirmed by Coincheck itself told financial authorities that it had lost 500 million NEM cryptocurrency coins in today’s cyberheist, which at the current exchange rate amounts to roughly $400 millionaccording to Nikkei.

NEM Foundation president Lon Wong also confirmed Coincheck was hacked, calling the stolen funds “the biggest theft in the history of the world”, as quoted by CryptoNews. According to Wong, the hack had nothing to do with NEM and the blame lies exclusively with Coincheck:

“As far as NEM is concerned, tech is intact. We are not forking. Also, we would advise all exchanges to make use of our multi-signature smart contract which is among the best in the landscape. Coincheck didn’t use them and that’s why they could have been hacked. They were very relaxed with their security measures,” Wong said.

“This is the biggest theft in the history of the world,” he added.

The hack, at recent NEMUSD exchange rates, would make it even bigger than Mt. Gox – which lost a total of $350 million in 2 hacks, one in 2011 and 2014 – by $50 million.

As noted above, Coincheck was one of the few crypto exchanges not registered with Japan’s Financial Services Authority – a regulator responsible for overseeing exchanges in the country – unlike the other prominent cryptocurrency exchanges, such as bitFlyer and Quoine. Furthermore, according to MineCC, CoinCheck used hot wallets not cold wallets, which are not secure.

Which may explain why local regulators are only now looking into what happened:

  • JAPAN FSA SAYS LOOKING INTO FACTS OF COINCHECK CASE

While little additional information was available as of this moment, Coincheck added that the hacked NEM was sent illicitly outside exchange, at which point the trail was lost however “no other issues found with other currencies on exchange.” Of course, the historic, nearly half a billion dollar hack is a big enough “issue.”

The Japanese exchange also said that it was “working hard to secure client assets”, and that it doesn’t know how many total coins were lost, adding that it was not clear if NEM losses were internal or external.

And while memories of the historic Mt.Gox hack suddenly rush front and center, Coincheck said that it plans to start trading of unaffected currencies. In retrospect that may not be a good idea.

Paradoxically, cryptocurrencies have risen as the Coincheck hack news spread amid expectations the thieves will convert their stolen NEM coins into another cryptocurrency.

end
Here is a novel way to steal crypto, the old fashioned way: armed robbery.  They stormed an Ontario based bitcoin firm but failed to make off with any bitcoin
(courtesy zerohedge)

The Other Way To Steal Crypto: Armed Robbers Storm Ontario-Based Bitcoin Firm

While sophisticated hackers breached CoinCheck’s security systems and ‘escaped’ with $400 million worth of NEM, criminals in Canada were a little less finesse and little more physical…

Employees at a Nepean, Ontario bitcoin business received a nasty surprise earlier this week: Three armed men showed up at their business, held them up at gunpoint, tied them up and tried to force them to transfer a bitcoin ransom to one of their accounts.

Robbers

The incident occurred at 10:55 am when the three suspects gained entry to Canadian Bitcoins on Concourse Gate, which is just west of the intersection of Colonnade Road and Prince of Wales Drive, Ottawa Citizen.

A fifth employee was in another office and called the police; the three masked men fled when the squad cars arrived…

Armed with handguns, police said they tied up four employees, one of whom would later need medical attention after being hit in the head with a handgun.

The suspects tried to coerce employees into completing a transaction, Staff Sgt. Michael Haarbosch said. Bitcoin is not a physical currency, but a cryptocurrency that can be exchanged for other currencies, products and services. At the moment, one bitcoin is worth around $13,700.

A fifth employee was in another office and called police. The suspects fled empty-handed.

Officers quickly spotted a suspect running into a ravine north of Colonnade Road and called for backup. One suspect was arrested without incident while two others were still at large.

One of the men was caught by police, but apparently has refused to divulge the identities of his compatriots.

Jimmy St-Hilaire, 19, was scheduled to appear in court Wednesday on charges including five counts each of robbery, pointing a firearm and forcible confinement plus wearing a disguise and conspiracy to commit an indictable offence. He also faces charges that he carried a concealed weapon and had a loaded gun to commit a crime while banned from having firearms.

The two suspects at large are described as black men. Police also want to talk to a “person of interest” who was inside the business when the suspects arrived.

On Wednesday afternoon, police returned to the scene to search for a gun used in the robbery.

A message posted on the door of Canadian Bitcoins advised customers that the office would be temporarily closed to walk-in customers until Jan. 28 at noon, although online orders were being processed as usual.

Businesses next to Bitcoin were not open, but a worker at a company a few doors down said he saw police cruisers screech into the commercial building’s parking lot and get out with their guns drawn Tuesday morning.

end
Credit Suisse sees rising gold prices will drive the top tier gold stocks higher.  Their top pick is my favourite Agnico Eagle
(courtesy Paul Ausick/Credit Suisse)
Credit Suisse Sees Rising Gold Prices Driving Top Gold Stocks HigherBy Paul Ausick January 26, 2018 9:55 am ESTThe price of gold rose 13% last year, about half as much as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and less than half as much as the Nasdaq Composite. On Thursday it reached a 12-month peak at over $1,362 an ounce, following what have now been characterized as misconstrued comments by U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on the Trump administration’s view that a weak dollar is a positive for U.S. exports.The inverse relationship between the dollar and gold has gathered strength both from the administration’s protectionist policies and the massive increase in deficit spending projected to result from recent changes to U.S. tax law. Equities remain strong, but the dollar has fallen, as might be expected, and gold prices have benefited.

Analysts at Credit Suisse have just released their Global Gold Scorecard with some general comments on the gold market and some specific changes to their ratings on gold-mining stocks. The bank’s analysts have upgraded Alamos Gold Inc. (NYSE: AGI), Yamana Gold Inc. (NYSE: AUY) and Centerra Gold from Neutral to Outperform and Eldorado Gold Corp. (NYSE: EGO) and Golden Star Resources Ltd. (NYSEAMERICAN: GSS) from Underperform to Neutral. Two miners, SEMAFO and Tahoe Resources Inc. (NYSE: TAHO) were downgraded from Neutral to Underperform.

Credit Suisse is projected an average gold price of $1,375 per ounce in 2018, compared with a 2017 average of $1,258. Analysts expect the dollar to continue its decline in 2018 following a 9% decline last year. Their forecasts fade to $1,300 per oz. by 2021, incorporating monetary policy normalization.

Credit Suisse’s Scorecard is based on execution/risk, valuation, growth, costs and mine life. The analysts’ top picks for Canada-based miners are Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (NYSE: AEM) and Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE: GG) among the seniors and Detour Gold and SSR Mining Inc. (NASDAQ: SSRM) among the mid-caps. Australian firms Alacer Gold and OceanaGold are the top picks from Down Under. The analysts noted:

In Canada our preference is for the growthier senior stocks AEM and GG (recently upgraded in the context of its strong scorecard performance) and lower risk turn-arounds in the mid-caps DGC and SSRM. In Australia our preference is for mid-cap growth with an attractive valuation: AQG and OGC.

The analysts’ key themes include acknowledging that moderated growth is now a desirable, yet scarce commodity and that cost-cutting in 2015 to 2017 has improved free cash flow (FCF) and strengthened balance sheets substantially. The latter point includes this caveat:

However this has left the industry’s growth outlook uninspiring. After a period of latent growth in 2011-2016, production levels have stabilized and we expect will continue to flatline over the 2018-2020. Meanwhile the demand outlook for gold is particularly strong due to investors buying on wealth preservation. Repeat of 2016 margin expansion? We forecast FCF margin expansion in 2018 with our forecast for largely flat costs (CFIC [cash flow implied costs]+growth at $1,146/oz vs. $1,159/oz in 2017) and a higher gold price. Costs are flat as higher byproduct commodity prices and continued productivity gains mask cost creep from labour market tightness, oil prices and FX strength. Our capex forecasts are also flat YoY based on guidance provided to date. At some point industry capex will need to catch up to deal with a looming production cliff post-2020, but this is unlikely to happen in 2018.

Here are details for Credit Suisse’s top senior Canadian mining picks for this year:

Agnico Eagle is rated at Outperform with a price target of $62 and a 33% return:

AEM is a top pick for its growth driven by exploration and project pipeline, strong balance sheet, high quality asset base and track record, which should sustain a premium valuation vs. peers.

Goldcorp is rated at Outperform with a price target of $19 and a return of 29% return:

GG currently sits below its peers in 2018 on P/CF (7.8x vs 8.4x peer average), P/OpCFa (11.9x vs 13.3x peer average) and offers a strong FCF yield (3.5% vs 3.0% North American peer average). GG has reestablished a good operational track record by achieving 2016 and 2017 production and AISC guidance. Production growth of ~18% to 2.90Mozs in 2020 is second best in its peer group with the added benefit of FCF over both years.

http://247wallst.com/commodities- metals/2018/01/26/credit-suisse-sees-rising-gold-

-END-




Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

 

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP AT 6.3277 /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP AT 9.82 POINTS 0.28% / HANG SANG CLOSED UP 499.67 POINTS OR 1.53%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 37.61 POINTS OR 0.16% /USA: YEN FALLS TO 109.25

3. Europe stocks OPENED GREEN   /USA dollar index FALLS TO 88.99/Euro RISES TO 1.2443

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO . +.078/ GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 109.25/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD FINALLY IN THE POSITIVE/BANK OF JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR YIELD CURVE AS THEY PURCHASE ALL BONDS TO GET TO ZERO RATE!!

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 65.59  and Brent: 70.35

3f Gold UP/Yen UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.624%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.991% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.420%

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 3.67?????????????????

3k Gold at $1351.10 silver at:17.39: 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 8/100 in roubles/dollar) 55.82

3m oil into the 65 dollar handle for WTI and 70 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.25 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9354 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1641 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to +0.624%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.643% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 2.897% /

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)

Futures A Sea Of Green Amid Relentless Dollar Disintegration

It’s deja vu all over again as the dollar resumed its decline against all major peers on Friday amid concerns over U.S. trade policy, after a brief rally that followed Trump’s comment on favoring a stronger dollar, setting the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index heading for its seventh weekly loss. That would be the longest losing streak since 2010.

Meanwhile equity markets from Asia to Europe, and US futures, are a sea of green as the market meltup continues at an unprecedented pace.

Trump’s comments on Thursday that he wants to see a strong greenback barely lifted the currency, which has been dented this week by a rise in U.S. protectionism and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s support for a weaker dollar.  Incidentally, with Mnuchin receiving rebuke from central bankers to the president himself overnight, he gave some additional clarification in Davos this morning:

  • MNUCHIN: DOLLAR’S SHORT-TERM DIRECTION ‘NOT A CONCERN OF MINE ONE WAY OR THE OTHER’
  • DOLLAR COMMENTS WERE ‘JUST A STATEMENT OF FACT’ -TREASURY SECRETARY STEVEN MNUCHIN
  • DOLLAR COMMENTS NOT INTENDED TO VIOLATE G20 COMMITMENT: TREASURY SECRETARY MNUCHIN

So far the dollar response to any attempt to talk up the dollar has been brief and feeble at best.  “The next couple of weeks could be a watershed moment for world trade and protectionism –- with President Trump’s Davos and, more importantly, State of the Union speeches likely to set the tone for U.S. trade policy over the coming year,” said Viraj Patel, currency strategist at ING Bank NV. “Were ‘America First’ policies to quickly lead to a ‘Sell America’ sentiment in global markets, then we could well see EUR/USD moving beyond 1.30 –and USD/JPY down at 100 — by year-end,” Patel wrote in a client note on Friday.

“The market focus before Mnuchin was on monetary policy, but now it’s shifted to the U.S.’s external policy, its trade stance,” said Naohiro Nomoto, manager of foreign-exchange trading at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. “The U.S. will likely target countries with strong trading relations with America, meaning that the dollar will be top-heavy against the euro and yen this year.”

Sue Trinh, Hong Kong-based head of Asia FX strategy with Royal Bank of Canada, wrote that President Trump’s comments that the dollar would continue to strengthen won’t probably change the emerging-market dynamic.  Regardless of whether the Trump administration wants a strong U.S. currency or not, this week’s plunge is breaching technical barriers that had stood as proverbial last lines of defense against a significant gap lower.

Elsewhere in macro, sterling was one of the main outperformers versus the dollar, trading at levels last seen on the day after the Brexit referendum in June 2016. Elsewhere, “The last time the euro was this overbought was March 2008,” says Roberto Cobo Garcia, head of G-10 currency strategy at BBVA. “There is not a fundamental justification for a 10-figure spike since mid-November.”

With the dollar tumbling, its polar opposite, China’s yuan, was set for its biggest weekly advance since Sept. 1. The onshore yuan gained 0.15% to 6.3219 per dollar, extending its advance for the week to 1.3% and set to climb for seventh week, longest such run since February 2017.

Meanwhile, equity markets were a sea of green, with european equities headed higher after a mostly bullish session in Asia. Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index climbed, with personal and household-goods shares leading gains after LVMH quarterly sales beat estimates. Esewhere, aside from the luxury space, sector specific performance is relatively broad-based with other individual movers including Thales (+3%) following a positive broker upgrade at Exane and Givaudan (-2%) following disappointing earnings.

Earlier in Asia, Japanese stocks fell while those in South Korea and Hong Kong climbed. Chinese markets were higher in which the Hang Seng (+1.3%) advanced to fresh record levels amid strength in Tencent and China’s largest banks, while the Shanghai Comp. (+0.3%) was choppy after the PBoC refrained from open market operations which resulted to a net weekly drain of CNY 320bln. The Hang Seng Index surged 1.5% to a new record high of 33154, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises index surged 2.5%, led by Chinese banks and real estate developers. Mainland participants also digested Industrial Profits which grew a slower pace, but continued to show double-digit growth for December, while FY Industrial Profits grew at its fastest pace since 2011.

Naturally, U.S. equity futures inched higher, and were up over 10 points at 2851.50 at last check, which will force Goldman to promptly revise the bank’s 2018 S&P price target which was hit in under 4 weeks.

Elsewhere, West Texas crude oil edged higher after surging to the highest level in more than three years Wednesday, and gold resumed an advance to trade near an 18-month high. Bitcoin dropped below $11,000.

Today’s expected data is wholesale inventories, annualized GDP and durable-goods orders. AbbVie, Colgate-Palmolive, Honeywell and NextEra Energy are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 2,851.50
  • Brent futures little changed at $70.43/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.5% to $1,355.44
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.6% to 88.82
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 400.31
  • MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.04% to 186.68
  • MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan up 0.5% to 612.18
  • Nikkei down 0.2% to 23,631.88
  • Topix down 0.3% to 1,879.39
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.5% to 33,154.12
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.3% to 3,558.13
  • Sensex down 0.3% to 36,050.44
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.08% to 6,050.02
  • Kospi up 0.5% to 2,574.76
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.7 bps to 0.605%
  • Euro up 0.6% to $1.2465
  • Brent Futures up 0.1% to $70.51/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 5.4 bps to 1.695%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.4 bps to 1.396%

Top Overnight News

  • The U.S. Treasury secretary has traditionally been the chief spokesman on currency policy, though President Donald Trump’s White House has demonstrated in the past 48 hours that the practice of one message and one messenger may be a thing of the past.
  • President Donald Trump wanted to fire Special Counsel Robert Mueller in June, three people familiar with the matter said, raising concerns among his top aides and closest supporters that Trump would put himself in legal jeopardy.
  • Chancellor Angela Merkel said a new government for Germany is within reach as she began coalition talks with the Social Democrats and one of her allies set a two-week deadline
  • Countries should abide by the G-7 and G-20 agreements and shouldn’t target currency rates for the sake of international competitiveness, Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso says on Friday
  • President Trump wanted to fire Special Counsel Robert Mueller in June, three people familiar with the matter said, raising concerns among his top aides and closest supporters that Trump would put himself in legal jeopardy
  • As the EU presents its plan for the U.K.’s Brexit transition, many governments are willing to push the expiration date beyond the December 2020 deadline they’ll set out as their official stance
  • President Donald Trump will support a path to citizenship for as many as 1.8 million undocumented immigrants brought into the U.S. as children, doubling the number of people covered by current protections from deportation, White House officials said Thursday.
  • Prime Minister Theresa May’s office slapped down Philip Hammond after the chancellor of the exchequer said he hoped the U.K. economy would move only “very modestly apart” from the European Union after leaving the bloc.
  • As the European Union presents its plan for the U.K.’s Brexit transition, many governments are willing to push the expiration date beyond the December 2020 deadline they’ll set out as their official stance.

Asian equities are broadly but modestly higher amid quiet conditions with both Australia and India shut today for national holidays. Nikkei 225 (-0.2%) was negative as the index gradually pared the initial support seen from a recovery in USD/JPY which reclaimed the 109.00 handle on Trump comments. Chinese markets were higher in which the Hang Seng (+1.3%) advanced to fresh record levels amid strength in Tencent and China’s largest banks, while the Shanghai Comp. (+0.3%) was choppy after the PBoC refrained from open market operations which resulted to a net weekly drain of CNY 320bln. Furthermore, participants also digested Industrial Profits which grew a slower pace, but continued to show double-digit growth for December, while FY Industrial Profits grew at its fastest pace since 2011. Finally, 10yr JGBs were slightly higher as prices retained marginal opening gains and with the BoJ also present in the market for JPY 820bln in JGBs under its Rinban operation. PBoC skipped open market operations for a net weekly drain of CNY 320bln vs. last week’s CNY 590bln net injection.

Top Asian News

  • TPG Is Said to Back $1 Billion Tata Fiber Management Buyout Bid
  • Japanese Inflation Continues Rising But No Closer to Target
  • Thailand Central Bank Head Fires Warning at Baht Speculators
  • China Economy Starts 2018 on Solid Trajectory After Profits Dip
  • China Is Said to Consider Banking, Insurance Watchdog Merger

European equities trade higher across the board (Eurostoxx 50 +0.4%) with outperformance in the CAC (+0.8%) as LVMH tops the index (+4.7%) following their earnings, subsequently dragging the likes of Kering (+3%) and Christian Dior (+4.5%) higher in sympathy. Elsewhere, aside from the luxury space, sector specific performance is relatively broad-based with other individual movers including Thales (+3%) following a positive broker upgrade at Exane and Givaudan (-2%) following disappointing earnings.

Top European News

  • SES, Eutelsat Extend Slide After Satellite Woes, Rating Cut
  • ECB Says Forecasters Lift Inflation Outlook for 2018 and 2019
  • U.K. Economy Caps Challenging Year With Surprise Growth Pickup
  • Magnit Plunges as Earnings, Sales Disappoint Investors Again
  • Czechs Vote for President as Ties With EU, Russia in Focus
  • ‘God Is Dead’ and Other Takeaways at Credit Suisse Banker Trial

In FX markets, there was more fast and furious action as US President Trump countered ‘weak Dollar good for trade’ claims made by Treasury Secretary Mnuchin with a desire to see a strong USD and prediction that it will get stronger and stronger. His rallying call sparked a sharp short squeeze across the board, but the Greenback is already under pressure again, albeit off worst levels vs its peers. Indeed, all G10 rivals have regained the upper hand and the DXY is back below the 89.000 handle, with key Index support levels still close enough to warrant attention (88.423 and 88.282). The AUD is outperforming just below 0.8100, while Sterling the CHF, NZD and EUR are not far behind around 1.4230, 0.9350, 0.7370 and 1.2460 respectively. USD/CAD is pivoting 1.2300 again amidst dovish sounding BoC Poloz’ rhetoric and some less bullish (for the Loonie) NAFTA noises ahead of Canadian CPI data. USD/JPY has retreated to sub-109.00 levels from around 109.75 on the Trump bounce, with solid support/bids remaining at 108.50, but options eyeing further downside by end Q1 (via 105.00 expiries in March). In short, the US President’s intervention appears to have stemmed the tide of broad Greenback selling that was veering towards an avalanche in Davos, but the  overall bear trend remains intact. Finally, GBP/USD edged closer to 1.4300 after UK GDP exceeded expectations (Q/Q 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.4%, Y/Y 1.5% vs. Exp. 1.4%).

In commodities, WTI and Brent crude futures have traded relatively sideways during European trade as energy newsflow remains light and prices pare some of yesterday’s USD-inspired losses; next up for energy traders is the Baker Hughes rig count. In metals markets, gold is also off worst levels and has retraced nearly half of yesterday’s move post-Trump, elsewhere, copper has seen relatively rangebound trade with markets likely to be swayed by fluctuations in the USD.

Looking at the day ahead, this morning in Europe we’ve got January confidence indicators due in France along with December M3 money supply data for the Euro area. Also due in the UK will be a first look at Q4 GDP for the UK with the consensus expecting a +0.4% qoq and +1.4% yoy print. This afternoon in the US the main highlight will be the aforementioned first estimate of Q4 GDP. We’ll also get the Q4 Core PCE print (+1.9% qoq consensus), December advance goods trade balance, December wholesale inventories and preliminary durable and capital goods orders for December. For what it’s worth, the consensus is for +0.8% mom headline durable goods orders and +0.6% core capex orders. Expect Davos developments to be the other big focus for markets today including President Trump’s speech. BoE and BoJ Governors Carney and Kuroda are also scheduled to speak along with the IMF’s Lagarde at 2pm GMT and the ECB’s Coeure at 10am GMT. Over at the Fed, Bullard is due to speak in Oslo at 1pm GMT

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Advance Goods Trade Balance, est. $68.9b deficit, prior $69.7b deficit, revised $70.0b deficit
  • 8:30am: Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.39%, prior 0.8%; Retail Inventories MoM, prior 0.1%, revised 0.1%
  • 8:30am: GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 3.0%, prior 3.2%; Personal Consumption, est. 3.7%, prior 2.2%
  • 8:30am: Durable Goods Orders, est. 0.8%, prior 1.3%; Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.6%, prior -0.1%
  • 8:30am: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.55%, prior -0.2%; Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.4%, prior -0.1%

DB’s Jim Reid Concludes the overnight wrap

It may have made an assist but it’s not often that an ECB meeting gets overshadowed by a diplomatic – and somewhat confusing – war of words over currencies. Indeed, there will be plenty of people who will have to double-take their screens this morning after FX markets spun on their heels last night. Before you do though a quick 121- word summary goes as follows. Yesterday morning in Davos US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin reinforced his weaker dollar rhetoric. ECB President Mario Draghi then fired an unsubtle warning shot back to Mnuchin at the ECB  press conference. The EUR/USD peaked at an intraday high of just over 1% at this stage. Then, after Europe went home, a Bloomberg story hit the screens suggesting that some ECB Governing Council members were said to favour waiting until June to start tweaking forward guidance. A matter of minutes later, President Trump then announced his presence in Davos by saying that he wants to see a strong USD and that comments from Mnuchin were taken out of context. Six hours after starting the rally and EUR/USD was back to flat.

Clearly it’s the Trump reaction to Mnuchin’s earlier comments which has left plenty – including us – confused but before we dig into that it’s worth firstly recapping how that FX volatility reverberated around markets. First and foremost, the EUR/USD closed last night at $1.240 and -0.06% on the day. However, the intraday high-to-low range of 1.40% was the second biggest since October last year. This morning the EUR/USD is hovering around $1.242.  Meanwhile, after being down as much as -0.86% the USD index rallied back to +0.21% and in the process snapped a three-day losing run (although it’s back in the red this morning). In fact, amazingly, after being down versus all other  G10 currencies when Europe went home, only the CHF, NOK and SEK strengthened versus the USD yesterday. It won’t come as a great surprise to hear then that FX vol (based on the CVIX) is now the highest since early October.

Anyway, those FX moves really dictated the price action elsewhere in markets too. After trading a smidgen higher leading into Draghi’s press conference, the majority of European bourses ended in the red including the Stoxx 600 (-0.56%), DAX (-0.87%) and CAC (-0.25%) with the EUR/USD just off the highs. The DAX actually suffered its worst two-day drop (-1.93%) since August last year. Across the pond the S&P 500 and Dow ended +0.06% and +0.54% respectively. They also pared bigger gains as the USD rallied back. Meanwhile in bond markets, yields continued to edge north in Europe. In fact, by the closing bell 10y Bunds ended at the highest since December 2015 (+2.3bps to 0.607%). The periphery sold off a little more with yields in Spain and Portugal +5.4bps and +5.5bps higher respectively. Treasuries felt the full force of the day’s headlines however and in the end 10y Treasuries closed -3.0bps lower at 2.618% with an intraday range of over 6bps.

Given that it’s fairly rare to see such high-profile comments about the USD it’s not a huge surprise to see markets react as they have however the apparent contradiction of comments between Mnuchin and Trump make this a real head scratcher. Early yesterday Mnuchin said that a “lower USD is beneficial for the US trade balance” while also reinforcing some of his other rhetoric from the day prior. The President then said last night in an interview with CNBC in Davos that “the USD is going to get stronger and stronger and ultimately I want to see a strong USD”. He also suggested that comments made by Mnuchin were “taken out of context”. Bisecting those comments and wading into the war of words was ECB President Draghi. At the ECB press conference yesterday Draghi said that “the exchange rate has moved in part because of endogenous reasons, namely the improvement in the economy, in part due to exogenous reasons that have to do with communication. But not by the ECB, but by someone else”. He added that “this someone else’s communication doesn’t comply with the agreed terms of references”.

Trying to make sense of the Mnuchin-Trump confusion, DB’s FX Strategist Alan Ruskin believes that what you have here is two officials who like a weak(er) USD in the short-term that will help the US trade accounts and support  growth, albeit to the point where strong growth will eventually support a strong USD longer-term. In Alan’s view this is a way of saying that in the short-term a weak USD is good for US trade, and in the long-term a strong USD is good because it is indicative of strong growth a healthy economy. Alan highlights that this is clearly a very confusing message to convey and it’s unlikely to either be reported or understood correctly, which doesn’t really help the message.

In any case, he may have done so already, but the last 48 hours or so sets us up quite nicely for President Trump’s turn to take the spotlight at Davos this afternoon. With markets already on edge expect trading floors to be glued to the TV. The President is due to speak at 1pm local time in Davos (2pm GMT). Also on the agenda today is some first tier data with a first look at Q4 GDP for the US. Our US economists expect a +3.3% qoq annualized print which  compares to the market consensus of +3.0% and the previous reading of +3.2%. One thing worth noting is that a reading close to our economists’ estimate would mean that it would be the third consecutive quarter of 3%-plus-inflation-adjusted output growth and the economy will have ended the year having expanded +2.7% (Q4/
Q4). That would be the best performance since 2014.

Finally, back to the ECB. While there were no real surprises at yesterday’s meeting it felt to us like it was the hawks who probably came away feeling slightly better about life. With the forward guidance can kicked down the road for another meeting it was instead that lack of any pushback on recent EUR appreciation by Draghi which was the biggest talking point. DB’s Mark Wall thought the press conference was a bit more balanced and highlighted that the strongest message was that the sequencing on exit and the insistence that the policy rate will remain unchanged ‘well past’ the end of net asset purchases are not just carved in stone but are triple underlined in stone. He notes that there will be changes to QE forward guidance in the coming months. The end of net asset purchases by yearend feels inevitable – the Council debate is about when to act, not when it should – and the ECB apparently wants to ensure that financial conditions decouple from the QE exit process by insisting that policy rates are not up for debate at all. It is worth adding that market pricing for a first rate hike is now mid-2019 which is when our European economists also expect the first hike. On that it’s worth noting that Draghi was asked at the end of his press conference about Weidmann’s recent comment that a rate hike in mid-2019 was consistent with data and Draghi confirmed that this timing was broadly appropriate given what is known today.

A quick refresh of our screens this morning now shows that equity markets are generally trading firmer in Asia with the exception of Japan. The Shanghai Comp (+0.28%), Hang Seng (+1.20%) and Kospi (+0.27%) are all up while H-shares have rallied another +1.96% following the first drop of the year on Thursday. The Nikkei is -0.09% with the Yen a bit more volatile after Japan’s December CPI figures missed at the headline (+1.0% yoy vs. +1.1% expected) and core-core (+0.3% yoy vs. +0.4% expected) lines.

Moving on. It feels like it’s almost been slightly forgotten about but Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s probe is picking up pace according to a Bloomberg story which did the rounds yesterday, with the obstruction part of the probesupposedly nearing its conclusion. It suggested that Mueller has interviewed a number of people close to Trump in recent weeks including James Comey, Jeff Sessions and the Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats and NSA  Director Michael Rogers, in addition to CIA Director Mike Pompeo. It’s expected that Mueller will schedule an interview with Trump in the next couple weeks which Trump responded to in front of reporters by suggesting that” we do it under oath”.

It’s worth highlighting that other parts of the investigation are however expected to last a while longer, including the investigation into Russia potentially interfering in the 2016 presidential election. This morning the NY Times is running a story suggesting that Trump ordered the firing of Mueller last June, but backed down after Mueller threatened to resign.

In other news, in Davos yesterday we also heard from UK Chancellor Philip Hammond. With Brexit unsurprisingly top of the agenda, Hammond said that “we should be confident of reaching something much more ambitious than any free trade agreement that has ever been achieved”. He also added that “an off the shelf deal, whether like Canada or Norway, is not the right option”. Also in Davos, Italy Finance Minister Pier Carlo Padoan expressed concern about potential US protectionism while the IMF’s Lagarde urged that trade rules have to be fair and clear.

Jumping to the micro now where US earnings season continues to tick along with over 20% of the S&P 500 now having reported. Yesterday we saw Caterpillar report, for who’s earnings are always worth keeping an eye on as a bit of a barometer for global growth. The numbers appeared upbeat with Caterpillar reporting that sales of retail machines in Q4 rose by the most since 2011 after they had been negative in percentage terms for every month in the two years through 2016, while overall earnings and sales figures came in ahead of analyst expectations. Guidance was also revised up for 2018 with growth gathering pace in Latin America and Europe.

Before we look at today’s calendar, for completeness yesterday’s macro data in the US didn’t really move the dial. Initial claims jumped 17k to 233k last week while December new home sales slumped a bit more than expected (-9.3% mom vs. -7.9% expected). The conference board’s leading index for December on the other hand rose a bit more than expected (+0.6% mom vs. +0.5% expected). In Europe the only data of significance came from Germany where the January IFO business climate reading for January was reported as jumping 0.4pts to 117.6 (vs. 117.0 expected), matching the record high made back in November. Current conditions jumped over 2pts to 127.7 although the expectations gauge did slide by 1pt to 108.4

Looking at the day ahead, this morning in Europe we’ve got January confidence indicators due in France along with December M3 money supply data for the Euro area. Also due in the UK will be a first look at Q4 GDP for the UK with the consensus expecting a +0.4% qoq and +1.4% yoy print. This afternoon in the US the main highlight will be the aforementioned first estimate of Q4 GDP. We’ll also get the Q4 Core PCE print (+1.9% qoq consensus), December advance goods trade balance, December wholesale inventories and preliminary durable and capital goods orders for December. For what it’s worth, the consensus is for +0.8% mom headline durable goods orders and +0.6% core capex orders. Expect Davos developments to be the other big focus for markets today including President Trump’s speech. BoE and BoJ Governors Carney and Kuroda are also scheduled to speak along with the IMF’s Lagarde at 2pm GMT and the ECB’s Coeure at 10am GMT. Over at the Fed, Bullard is due to speak in Oslo at 1pm GMT

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)Late THURSDAY night/FRIDAY morning: Shanghai closed UP 9.82 points or 0.28% /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 499.67 pts or 1.53% / The Nikkei closed DOWN 37.61 POINTS OR 0.16%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.07%/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed  UP at 6.3277/Oil UP to 65.59 dollars per barrel for WTI and 70.35 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREED .   ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST THE DOLLAR AT 6.3277. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AGAINST  THE ONSHORE YUAN AT 6.3256//ONSHORE YUAN MUCH STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR/OFF SHORE MUCH STRONGER TO THE DOLLAR/. THE DOLLAR (INDEX) IS  MUCH WEAKER AGAINST ALL MAJOR CURRENCIES. CHINA IS EXTREMELY  HAPPY TODAY.(STRONG CURRENCY AND STRONG MARKETS )

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

/SOUTH KOREA

 

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

Our bankers were not to thrilled with Kuroda’s optimistic comments as this causes gold/silver to rise despite the obvious raid orchestrated by the crooks

(courtesy zerohedge)

 end

c) REPORT ON CHINA

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

SWITZERLAND

The Swiss balance sheet contains a huge $11,589.01 of American equities.  In total: over 100 billion USA.

This is the riskiest of assets to purchase.  Jordan, chief of SNB did not buy gold because there is none.  He could have bought sovereign bonds but he did not nor did he buy any corporate bonds.

(courtesy Kevin Muir/Macro Tourist blog)

7. OIL ISSUES

Will the huge increase in shall production hurt the Saudi’s oil plans?  Seems that the minister is quite annoyed at all of those questions reporters are asking them on this issue

(courtesy Nick Cunningham/Oil Price.com)

8. EMERGING MARKET

 end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 am

Euro/USA 1.2443 UP .0053/ REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ SPAIN VS CATALONIA/REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:/TRUMP HEALTH CARE DEFEAT//ITALIAN REFERENDUM DEFEAT/AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA FALLING INTEREST RATES AGAIN/HOUSTON FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES ALL GREEN 

USA/JAPAN YEN 109.25 DOWN  0.417 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/SIGNALS U TURN WITH INCREASED NEGATIVITY IN NIRP/JAPAN OUT OF WEAPONS TO FIGHT ECONOMIC DISASTER/

GBP/USA 1.4244 UP .0095 (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED

THERESA MAY FORMS A NEW GOVERNMENT/STARTS BREXIT TALKS/MAY IN TROUBLE WITH HER OWN PARTY/

USA/CAN 1.2312 DOWN .0066 (CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA)

Early THIS FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 53 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.2334; / Last night the Shanghai composite CLOSED UP 9.82 POINTS OR 0.28% / Hang Sang CLOSED UP 499.67 POINTS OR 1.53% /AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.07% / EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN  

The NIKKEI: this FRIDAY morning CLOSED DOWN 37.61 POINTS OR 0.16%

Trading from Europe and Asia:
1. Europe stocks OPENED GREEN

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / : Hang Sang CLOSED UP 499.67 POINTS OR 1.53% / SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 9.82 POINTS OR 0.28% /

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.07% /

Nikkei (Japan)CLOSED DOWN 37.61 POINTS OR 0.16%

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1351.80

silver:$17.41

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.643% !!! UP 2 IN POINTS from THURSDAY night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/ALSO GETTING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO 2.70%

The 30 yr bond yield 2.8970 DOWN 0 IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 88.99 DOWN 40  CENT(S) from YESTERDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

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And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS \1 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.946% UP 4  in basis point(s) yield from THURSDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.078% down 7/10   in basis points yield from THURSDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.409% UP 0  IN basis point yield from THURSDAY/

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.007 UP 4  POINTS in basis point yield from THURSDAY/

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 59 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: +.629%  UP 2 IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY

END

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IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.2423 UP.0032 (Euro UP 32 Basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/

USA/Japan: 108.38 DOWN 1.282 Yen UP 128 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.4161 DOWN .0059( POUND DOWN 59 BASIS POINTS)

USA/Canada 1.2317 DOWN  .0061 Canadian dollar UP 61 Basis points AS OIL ROSE TO $66.21

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This afternoon, the Euro was UP 32 to trade at 1.2423

The Yen ROSE to 108.38 for a GAIN of 128 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE

The POUND FELL BY 59 basis points, trading at 1.4161/

The Canadian dollar ROSE by 61 basis points to 1.2317/ WITH WTI OIL RISING TO : $66.21

The USA/Yuan closed AT 6.3280
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.078% DOWN 7/10  BASIS POINTS / yield/
Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 4 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 2.664% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 2.914  UP 3  in basis points on the day /

Your closing USA dollar index, 89.00 DOWN 38 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 1:00 PM EST

London: CLOSED UP 49.70 POINTS OR 0.65%
German Dax :CLOSED UP 41.81 POINTS OR 0.31%
Paris Cac CLOSED UP 67.94 POINTS OR 0.87%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 0.10 POINTS OR 0.00%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 97.19 POINTS OR 0.41%

The Dow closed UP 137.17 POINTS OR 0.58%

NASDAQ WAS DOWN 3.89 Points OR 0.08% 4.00 PM EST

WTI Oil price; 66.21 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 70.44 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE CROSS: 56.14 UP 8/100 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE LOWER BY 8 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES TO +.629% FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:30 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:$66.21

BRENT: $70.47

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.6560%   THE RAPID ASSENT IN YIELD IS VERY DANGEROUS/ANYTHING OVER 2.70% AND THE ENTIRE DERIVATIVES BLOW UP

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.910%

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.2424 UP.0034  OR 34 BASIS POINTS

USA/JAPANESE YEN:108.64 down 1.02/ YEN UP 102 BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 89.07 down 32 cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.4145 : down 4 POINTS FROM LAST NIGHT

Canadian dollar: 1.2326 up 54 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: +0.612%

END

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

Tru

end

Trading this morning:  Michael Harnett announces the biggest sell signal in 5 years

(courtesy zerohedge/Michael Harnett.B of America).

BofA Sounds The Alarm: “Biggest Sell Signal In 5 Years Was Just Triggered”

One week ago, Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett showed  that as a result of the ongoing stock market euphoria, the 4-week inflow into stocks had hit the highest ever, although he suggested that we were “not quite there” yet when it comes to euphoria becoming a “selling” trigger.

So fast forward one week, when according to BofA’s latest weekly flow show, we finally made one-week history as investors poured the most money on record into equity funds, and warning that with the Bull & Bear indicator surging to 7.9 “the highest since last sell signal >8 triggered Mar’13”, a tactical pullback in sky-high markets in February and March is now “very likely”.

Overall, as part of what Hartnett calls a “non-stop euphoria cabaret” markets saw a record $33.2bn inflow to equity funds this week, record $12.2bn inflow to active funds, $1.5bn into gold (50-week high), as well as record inflows to tech & TIPS.

And while we all know how overbought the market is, here are two stunning statistics:

  • 98% of global equity markets trading above 50 & 200 day moving averages
  • AUM of SPY ETF now = GDP of Denmark.

Some further details on the historic inflows by region and product:

  • broken by region, it was more of the same as U.S. equities saw $7bn of inflows, Europe $4.6bn, Japan $3.4bn; while EM funds had the 2nd best week of inflows on record at $8.1bn.
  • On the credit IG bond funds gain $2b in 57th straight week of inflows, HY bond funds see outflows of $2.5b, EM debt inflows $1.6b

And while the rotation from debt to equity has not yet happened, a subset of debt – junk bonds – is clearly throwing in the towel, as shown in the chart below, which shows that equity flows relative to credit flows at all-time high (Chart 1 – HY redemptions 11/13 past weeks & slowing IG inflows); here Hartnett reminds us that “credit leads equities (except in bubbles).”

Looking at FX flows, BofA writes that as a result of the “tainted dollar”, EM debt & equity inflows close to May’13 peak, which helps explain recent surge in EM currencies:

d

A little more euphoria and it will be time to sell emerging markets: “EM Equity Flow Trading Rule…$5bn into EM equities next week triggers 1st sell signal since Aug’14

So going back to the BofA “sell signal” that was just triggered, Hartnett explains that the BofAML Bull & Bear indicator just surged to 7.9, highest since last sell signal >8 triggered Mar’13.

From here, inflows into HY/EM debt/equity funds would flip “soft sell” for risk assets to “hard sell”.

Euphoria charted: BofAML GWIM private client equity exposure rising at fastest pace in 10 years…

… and cash allocation at record low (10%).

Should one trust the BofA Bull and Bear indicator? Well, yes: “BofAML Bull & Bear indicator has given 11 sell signals since 2002; hit ratio = 11/11; 

What happens next? Well, once hit, the average equity peak-to-trough drop following 3 months = 12% (backtested, Table 1); note the last Bull & Bear indicator flashed was a buy signal of 0 on Feb 11th 2016.

Putting it all together, BofA warns that a “tactical S&P500 pullback to 2686 in Feb/Mar now very likely.

And here is what can spark it:

“The Art of Falling Apart: US dollar key catalyst; note US-Europe FX spat sparked ’87 crash; higher US$ “pain trade” = risk-off coming weeks; we reiterate 2018 calls: Big Long = Vol, Big Short = Credit, Big Risk = Equity Bubble (driven by $10.3tn of negatively yielding debt), Big Rotation from Davos Man to Joe-Six Pack portfolio”

Will this time finally be the charm for BofA’s recurring warnings of an imminent market plunge? The next 2 months will reveal if – this time – it was finally right…

 end
Trading in the dollar today:  it resumes its downward trajectory. The markets are just not buying Trump’s remarks:
(courtesy zerohedge)

Making Sense Of The Mnuchin-Trump Currency War Confusion

The Dollar is tumbling once again today, erasing President Trump’s rescue bid yesterday, and pushing FX volatility up to its highest in 4 months.

Here’s why…

Trying to make sense of the Mnuchin-Trump confusion, DB’s FX Strategist Alan Ruskin believes that what you have here is two officials who like a weak(er) USD in the short-term that will help the US trade accounts and support growth, albeit to the point where strong growth will eventually support a strong USD longer-term.

In Alan’s view this is a way of saying that in the short-term a weak USD is good for US trade, and in the long-term a strong USD is good because it is indicative of strong growth a healthy economy.

Alan highlights that this is clearly a very confusing message to convey and it’s unlikely to either be reported or understood correctly, which doesn’t really help the message.

Notably, as we saw yesterday (with stocks slammed as Trump jawboned the dollar higher), BofA is also warning that a reversal of the dollar’s recent weakness could also spark a sharp correction in stocks.

As a reminder, a U.S.-Europe FX spat was a trigger of the 1987 stock market crash… and the dollar’s YTD weakness is the worst since 1987.

January 24th, 2018: Steven Mnuchin to Davos: “A weaker dollar is good for us as it relates to trade and opportunities.” October 17th, 1987: James Baker to the Germans: “Either inflate your mark, or we’ll devalue the dollar.”

Interestingly, stocks soared (just as they are now) as the dollar crashed (just as it is now) in 1987… before things went pear-shaped…

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180124_EOD4.jpg

In other words – “Higher dollar = pain trade = risk-off coming.”

Rising bond yields. Full employment. Fed tightening. Trade frictions. Weak dollar. Rising twin deficits, spurred by tax reform. Sound familiar? It should. This was 1987. Start rebalancing.

end

Trump is not going to like this.  He has been tooting his horn that Q4GDP was heading for a 3% gain. However the BEA reported that instead of coming in at 4 to 5%, it missed expectations badly coming in at 2.6% largely due to the soaring deficit which is a negative to GDP

(courtesy zerohedge)

Q4 GDP Unexpectedly Misses, Rising Only 2.6% Dragged By Soaring Trade Deficit

Consensus expected a 3.0% GDP print, with whisper numbers well above that and some expecting a print as high as 5%. However it was not meant to be, and as the BEA reported moments ago, the first estimate of Q4 GDP came in at  2.6%, missing expectations and below last quarter’s 3.2% GDP print, and the lowest since the first quarter of 2017, largely as a result of a surging trade deficit in the fourth quarter.

What happened?

First the good news:  Personal consumption rose 3.8% in 4Q after rising 2.2% prior quarter. Final sales to private domestic purchasers q/q rose 4.6% in 4Q after rising 2.2% prior quarter; largest rise since Q3 2014. Spending contributed 2.58% to the bottom-line GDP print, the highest quarter since Q4 2014, however as we discussed previously, much of it was the result of a surge in credit card-funded spending while the personal savings rate dropped to levels last seen during the financial crisis.

Some more good news: nonresidential fixed investment – or spending on equipment, structures and intellectual property – rose 6.8% in 4Q after rising 4.7% prior quarter. It contributed 0.84% to the annualized Q4 GDP’s bottom line.

However, both of these items were offset by a bigger than expected inventory destocking, as Inventories subtracted -0.67% from the final GDP number, the biggest drop since Q1.

But most notable was the sharp drop in GDP as a result of surging imports which subtracted -1.96% from the final GDP number. This was the biggest hit from imports to GDP going back all the way to Q3 2010. Net of exports, trade resulted in a -1.14% drag on GDP. Needless to say, for a president who is focused on boosting exports and reducing the US trade deficit, this number will only provoke more speculation about boosting US exports and thus, the possibility of trade war.

df

All of the above broken down visually by component:

Some other observations: real disposable personal income—personal income adjusted for taxes and inflation —increased 1.1% in the fourth quarter after increasing 0.5% in the third quarter. Personal saving as a  percentage of disposable personal income was 2.6% in the fourth quarter, compared with 3.3% in Q3,

For inflation watchers, prices of goods and services purchased by U.S. residents increased 2.5% in the fourth quarter
after increasing 1.7% in the third quarter. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 1.9% in the fourth quarter after increasing 1.6% in the third quarter.

Finally, for the year 2017, real GDP increased 2.3% compared with 1.5 percent in 2016.

The increase in real GDP in 2017 reflected increases in consumer spending, business investment, and exports. These contributions were partly offset by a decrease in inventories. Imports increased. Prices of goods and services  purchased by U.S. residents increased 1.8 percent in 2017, compared with an increase of 1.0 percent in 2016. Excluding food and energy, prices increased 1.7 percent in 2017 after increasing 1.4 percent in 2016.

Overall, a good first year for Trump who however will surely be disappointed by the substantial drag resulting from the trade deficit.

end

Not good! core durable goods orders tumbled .3%month over month.  Core durable goods takes away from aircraft orders and war spending

(courtesy zerohedge)

Core Durable Goods Orders Tumble Most In A Year

While headline durable goods orders showed a 2.9% MoM surge, but away from aircraft orders and war-spending, capital goods orders dropped 0.3% MoM in December – the most in 12 months.

But this surge was all thanks to aircraft and war-spending:

  • Bookings for commercial aircraft climbed 15.9% MoM
  • Orders for Aircraft Engine and Enegine Parts rose 24.4% MoM
  • Defense capital goods orders increased 19.5% MoM
  • Defense aircraft and parts soared 55.3% MoM

So, at the core, orders tumbled most in a year…

In other words, we’re gonna need more war to get that GDP up over 3.0%…

end

Last night:  Trump offers the Democrats a path to citizenship for 1.8 million DACA dreamers in exchange for complete wall funding

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump To Give Path To Citizenship For 1.8 Million Dreamers In Exchange For Wall Funding

In an attempt to break the ongoing deadlock over government funding and immigration reform, President Trump will sign an immigration plan into law that would allow as many as 1.8 million undocumented immigrants brought into the US as children to seek a pathway to citizenship, in exchange for billions of dollars for Trump’s border wall and sweeping changes to the legal immigration system, senior administration officials said Thursday.

The proposal would double the number of people covered by current protections from deportation.

According to Bloomberg, the White House will cast the plan as a concession to Democrats as they seek to ensconce GOP immigration policies. Meanwhile, to appease his core base, Trump will ask Congress for a $25 billion trust fund to pay for construction of a southern border all as well as enhanced security at ports of entry and along U.S.-Canada border.

The White House is urging the Senate to draw up legislation based on the plan and introduce it the week Feb. 5, just days before the government funding is set to expire, though officials said they do not have an assurance it will be brought up.

In other words, the DACA proposal will be presented to Democrats to take or leave; should they do the latter, another government shutdown will appear inevitable.

As The Hill adds, Officials who described the plan to reporters framed it as Congress’ best chance to pass a fix for immigrants who benefit from the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program, which Trump terminated last year.

The official said Congress failed to pass immigration overhauls in the past because lawmakers considered legislation that was too big in scope and only represented “the most liberal sections of both parties.”

It’s designed to break a partisan impasse on the issue before the DACA programs begins to wind down on March 5.

The plan, detailed in what the White House is calling a “legislative framework,” also includes limiting family-based immigration to nuclear families and ending the visa lottery system put into place more than two decades ago.

Trump aides offered the most detailed look to date at the president’s plan on immigration, an issue that animated his campaign and has dominated the policy debate on Capitol Hill.

“This truly represents a bipartisan compromise position,” said one official, who requested anonymity to detail the proposal. “We have no doubt that if this legislation were brought to the floor, it would easily garner 60 votes.”

Of course, that depends on the Democrats’ response which is yet to come.

end

Both sides are not happy with the dreamer proposal

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Successfully Infuriates Both Republicans And Democrats With “Dreamer” Proposal

Just one day after the White House reversed its position on naturalizing young illegal immigrants, unveiling a proposal late on Thursday to double the number of Dreamers the US would accept in exchange for billions in Wall funding, President Trump said on Friday that Republican senators – even those who have taken a tough approach to immigration such as Tom Cotton, John Cornyn and David Perdue – could agree to the unexpected proposal to offer citizenship within 10 to 12 years to so-called “Dreamers.”

“They’ve really shifted a lot, and I think they’re willing to shift more, and so am I,” the Republican president told CNBC in an interview from Davos. “We’re going to see. If we make the right deal, I think they will.”

The problem is that while a handful of republicans were happy with Trump’s plan, many more were not even as the elephant in the room – or rather the donkey – remained the democrats. As we said yesterday, the fate of Trump’s proposal – and by extension whether or not the government is shut down again on February 8 should  there be no immigration deal – “depends on the Democrats’ response which is yet to come.”

And, as it turns out, early indications are not looking good, because as The Hill reports, Trump’s immigration plan has slammed into heavy opposition on and off Capitol Hill, suggesting the much-anticipated framework has failed to move the needle as a bipartisan group of senators try to negotiate a deal.

While Trump is hoping the Senate will draft legislation based on his blueprint (it can be seen here)and introduce it by Feb. 5, just three days before funding for the government runs out, the day-old plan is already taking heavy fire from both the right and the left.

In some ways, it may now be even worse than before: for the bipartisan gang of 20 senators trying to hammer out an agreement to protect the “Dreamers,” it’s clear the Trump outline — intended as an olive branch to Democrats — gets them no closer to a deal. One of the key negotiators of the group, Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), warned that Trump’s plan places the White House’s “hardline immigration agenda … on the backs of these young people.

Charles Schumer, the Senate Minority Leader who will need to sign off on any deal for the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) to pass the upper chamber, echoed those sentiments on Twitter on Friday. Trump is using DACA recipients as “a tool to tear apart our legal immigration system and adopt the wish list that anti-immigration hardliners have advocated for for years,” he wrote.

What is more surprising is how much pushback the Trump plan got from his own party.

In all, while Trump’s plan did get an endorsement from a pair of key conservatives, i.e., David Perdue and Tom Cotton, for the most part conservative outside groups, members of the House Freedom Caucus and other vocal immigration hard-liners all panned the White House plan, saying providing a path to citizenship for 1.8 million “Dreamers” amounted to “mass amnesty” for law breakers.

“Illegals have No Right to be here & have ALL violated our laws. This #Amnesty deal negotiates away American Sovereignty,” Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa), an immigration hawk, tweeted Friday.

The American People have a Right to enforcement of our laws & a Right to a sealed border. Illegals have No Right to be here & have ALL violated our laws. This deal negotiates away American Sovereignty.

Roy Beck, president of NumbersUSA, a group that advocates for reduced immigration, had embraced an immigration proposal by House Judiciary Chairman Bob Goodlatte (R-Va.). That bill includes a path to legalization for nearly 700,000 DACA recipients — the first time since 1986 that NumbersUSA has supported any proposal along those lines.

But the White House proposal goes too far for Beck.

“NumbersUSA has no choice but to oppose what is being suggested as the White House ‘framework’ for a mass amnesty,” Beck said.

The pile up continued:

The outside conservative group Heritage Action described Trump’s plan as a “nonstarter” because it “expands the amnesty-eligible population,” while the head of the Center for Immigration Studies, an immigration restrictionist group, suggested Trump had betrayed the conservative base that had propelled him to the presidency.

“Time to start burning your #MAGA hats. Send pictures and I’ll retweet,” Mark Krikorian tweeted.

And former Freedom Caucus Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), appearing on Fox News on Friday, said he had “concerns” about the Trump plan.

The Ohio Republican said he favors the Goodlatte bill, which places greater emphasis on border-enforcement measures like mandating that all employers use E-Verify, ending chain migration, also known as family reunification, and cracking down on sanctuary cities.

If there is a “focus on DACA first and then a little pretend security and pretend border wall and pretend chain migration,” Jordan said, “that’s a different animal, and I won’t be for that, and neither will lots of conservatives, more importantly, lots of Americans.”

* * *

Meanwhile, predictably, Democrats threw up all over Trump’s plan. On the other end of the political spectrum, Democratic leaders, liberal groups and pro-immigration advocates accused Trump of holding Dreamers hostage while demanding draconian policies that would greatly curb legal immigration.

The plan calls for a $25 billion trust fund for border security — many times more than what Durbin and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) had entertained in their bipartisan negotiations. It also would scrap the visa lottery system and severely limit family-based immigration, which Republicans call “chain migration.”

Frank Sharry, executive director of America’s Voice, an advocacy group that works closely with progressive members on immigration, said the White House plan “comes nowhere close to finding the sweet spot” for a bipartisan agreement.

“It is a far-right restructuring of our entire immigration system in trying exploit the crisis that was created by Trump ending DACA,” he said.

Greisa Martinez Rosas, a DACA recipient and policy director for United We Dream, a youth network of Dreamer advocates, said Dreamers — even those benefited by the proposal — would not accept its price.

“The immigration proposal presented yesterday by the Trump White House is nothing more than a white supremacist ransom note. A ‘Sophie’s choice’ by an immoral and horrible man whose aim is to wipe immigrant families from this country,” she said.

Like the Goodlatte bill, the White House proposal would cut legal immigration and change the methods by which immigrants are selected. John C. Yang, president and executive director of Asian Americans Advancing Justice, said the proposal “decimates the family immigration system that has made this country so dynamic.”

Democrats, wary of their base’s reaction to the short-lived shutdown, took a similar tone.

“We cannot allow the lives of young people who have done everything right to be used as bargaining chips for sweeping anti-immigrant policies,” said Congressional Hispanic Caucus Chairwoman Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-N.M.) in a statement.

“The White House is using Dreamers to mask their underlying xenophobic, isolationist, and un-American policies, which will harm millions of immigrants living in the United States and millions of others who want to legally immigrate and contribute to our country,” she said.

* *  *

In short, with one short proposal Trump managed to infuriate both Democrats and Republicans.

And while the White House proposal follows a well-worn formula in immigration negotiations — trading enforcement measures for legalizing blocs of immigrants in the country illegally, Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) on Thursday warned, before the White House made its proposal public, that Republican enforcement demands were far outweighing their offer in terms of legalizations.

“It’s not reasonable to say that for a group of 700,000-800,000 students in this country, to ask what was negotiated for comprehensive immigration reform,” he said.

Finally, with the White House unlikely to move much on its original proposal, Trump’s gambit is that the Democrat will cave entirely lest they be blamed for the next government shutdown in exactly two weeks. The problem is that Schumer won’t agree to a capitulation, and the most likely outcome is another government shutdown, only this time with no possibility of an olive branch, it will extend deep into February if not March.

Which is a problem, because as we discussed last week, should the shutdown extend into the debt ceiling X-Date period, expected to hit around mid-March, then not only are all bets off, but a US technical default suddenly looks especially likely.

Dollar longs are not too happy with this:  Trump proposes a defense budget increase of 13%

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Ups Defense Budget By 13% – “Can’t Have World’s Best Military On An Obama Budget”

With Washington having seemingly turned its turret away from ‘terror’ and back to “revisionist, authoritarian” regimes like ‘Russia and China’, the Military-Industrial Complex is ‘gonna need a bigger budget’ – a 13% bigger $716 billion one by 2019.

US military spending already dwarfed the rest of the world…

But, while presenting the 2018 National Defense Strategy (NDS2018) of the United States on Friday at the Johns Hopkins University, Secretary of Defense James Mattis painted a picture of a dangerous world in which U.S. power – and all of the supposed “good” that it does around the world – is on the decline.

“Our competitive edge has eroded in every domain of warfare – air, land, sea, space, and cyberspace,” he said“And it is continually eroding.”

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180124_us2.jpg

And now, as The Washington Post reportsPresident Trump is expected to ask for $716 billion in defense spending when he unveils his 2019 budget next month, a major increase that signals a shift away from concerns about rising deficits, U.S. officials said.

The proposed budget is a victory for Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, who recently unveiled a strategy that proposes retooling the military to deter and, if necessary, fight a potential conflict with major powers such as China and Russia.

And it represents a setback for deficit hawks such as Mick Mulvaney, director of the Office of Management and Budget, who last year pressed for an increase in defense spending that could be offset by cuts to domestic programs.

The $716 billion figure for 2019 would cover the Pentagon’s annual budget as well as spending on ongoing wars and the maintenance of the U.S. nuclear arsenal. It would increase Pentagon spending by more than 7 percent over the 2018 budget, which still has not passed through Congress.

The proposed budget would be a 13 percent increase over 2017 when the United States spent about $634 billion on defense. In the absence of a budget, spending continues at 2017 levels.

What’s behind this massive surge in “defense” spending… Simple…

Here are the highlights from Secretary Mattis’s speech, on January 19th, introducing NDS2018:

This defense strategy was framed … by President Trump’s National Security Strategy. … It is, as was noted by the dean, our nation’s first National Defense Strategy in 10 years. …

We will continue to prosecute the campaign against terrorists that we are engaged in today, but Great Power competition, not terrorism, is now the primary focus of US national security. …

We face growing threats from revisionist powers as different as China and Russia are from each other, nations that do seek to create a world consistent with their authoritarian models, pursuing veto authority over other nations’ economic, diplomatic and security decisions.

Rogue regimes like North Korea and Iran persist in taking outlaw actions that threaten regional and even global stability. Oppressing their own people and shredding their own people’s dignity and human rights, they push their warped views outward. …

We’re going to build a more lethal force. We will strengthen our traditional alliances and building new partnerships with other nations.

The second line of effort I noted was to strengthen alliances as we build new partnerships, as well.

History proves that nations with allies thrive.

“What Mattis is saying is that you can’t have the best military in the world on an Obama budget,” said Mark Cancian, a defense analyst with the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

The proposed increase is “a huge deal.”

“It’s a big jump in defense and means that the Trump administration is putting resources against an extremely aggressive defense strategy.”

Ironic that this comes just hours after the government reported that core durable goods orders tumbled in America but thanks to a 55% surge in Defense Aircraft spending, all is well… we’re gonna need moar war… for sure.

end

SWAMP STORIES

The FBI wanted a special counsel for Hillary’s email probe but they feared if she want the presidency, the feared for her wrath and that is why they backed off..this is what next texts revealed

(courtesy zerohedge)

FBI Mulled Special Counsel For Hillary Email Probe But Feared Her Wrath, New Texts Reveal

Newly released text messages between FBI officials Peter Strzok and Lisa Page reveal that the agency’s top brass was considering appointing former U.S. Attorney Patrick Fitzgerald as a special counsel in the Hillary Clinton email investigation. 

The idea is pitched in a March, 2016 exchange between Strzok and Page – relatively early on in their investigation into Hillary Clinton’s mishandling of classified information. Of note, Attorney General Loretta Lynch or one of her deputies would have had to make the ultimate decision to appoint a special prosecutor to look into the “matter.”

“Thought of the perfect person [FBI Director James Comey] can bounce this off of?” Strzok wrote to Page in a March 18, 2016 text. “Pat….You got to give me credit if we go with him….And delay briefing him on until I can get back and do it, Late next week or later.”

“We talked about him last night, not for this, but how great he is,” Page responded.

“I could work with him again….And damn we’d get sh*t DONE,” Strzok wrote.


judiciary.senate.gov

Strzok noted that Fitzgerald was brought in by Comey as a special counsel in the investigation into who leaked the identity of CIA agent Valerie Plame.

Appointed in 2001 by President George W. Bush, Fitzgerald was the longest-serving U.S. Attorney in Chicago history – and has led several high profile federal investigations and prosecutions.

In a follow-up text exchange on May 13, 2016, Page asks Strzok “Hey forgot to ask if you mentioned the whole special counsel thing to andy?” (referring to current Deputy FBI Director Andrew McCabe).

No special prosecutor was selected for the Clinton email investigation despite calls by Republicans to do so as early as February, 2016.

Instead, former FBI Director James Comey had originally determined Clinton’s conduct fit the legally consequential charge of “gross negligence” which Peter Strzok later downgraded to “extremely careless” – which is not a legal term of art. The agency ultimately recommended that the Department of Justice not press charges.

In a Thursday letter to FBI Director Christopher Wray, Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley asked if whether the FBI had approached the DOJ to appoint a special counsel. “If not, why not?” wrote Grassley, who also demanded all written communications on the subject.


judiciary.senate.gov

Politics as usual…

The newly released batch of text messages also reveal that the pair of anti-Trump FBI agents were concerned over reprisal from Hillary Clinton, should they aggressively pursue her.

“One more thing: she might be our next president,” Page wrote, adding “The last thing you need us going in there loaded for bear. You think she’s going to remember or care that it was more doj than fbi?”

“Agreed,” Strzok replied.

Th texts also reveal that Page was engaged in a lengthy phone conversation with then-Wall St. Journal (now WaPo) reporter Devlin Barrett – several days after the journalist published a story on FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe’s wife receiving over half a million dollars in campaign donations from a committee tied to then-Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D-VA). Barrett also reported on an “internal feud” at the FBI over investigating the Clinton Foundation, leading some to suggest that he was a conduit for the FBI to leak information to the public.

Strzok-Page texts show that Page spoke on phone to WSJ (now WaPo) reporter @DevlinBarrett as story of Weiner laptop emails broke. Close enough relationship that she called him Devlin. https://www.politico.com/story/2018/01/25/hillary-clinton-emails-patrick-fitzgerald-fbi-special-prosecutor-370489 

Texts: FBI considered Patrick Fitzgerald as special prosecutor for Hillary Clinton emails

No special prosecutor was ever appointed in the Clinton email investigation, but Republicans began demanding such an appointment as early as February 2016.

politico.com

Page was on the phone with Barrett just as news broke that the FBI had found State Department emails on a laptop it seized while investigating former Rep. Anthony Weiner (D-N.Y.) for sexting with minors.

Still on with devlin,” Page wrote. “Mike’s phone is ON FIRE,” she added, apparently referring to FBI public affairs chief Michael Kortan.

You may want to tell Devlin he should turn on CNN, there’s news going on,” Strzok replied.

He knows. He just got handed a note,” Page said.

“Ha. He asking about it now?” Strzok asked.

“Yeah. It was pretty funny,” Page wrote.

The text messages don’t indicate what information, if any, Page provided to Barrett or whether her discussions with the reporter were authorized by FBI management. –Politico

The texts released by Sen. Grassley on Thursday were included in a 384-page document delivery to Congressional investigators by the DOJ. While Justice officials said in a cover letter that five months of texts were “missing” and unable to be recovered due to a technical glitch, DOJ Inspector General (DOJ OIG) Michael Horowitz told lawmakers on Thursday that his office has managed to retreive the missing correspondencebetween Page and Strzok.

The new batch of text messages along with Grassley’s full letter can be viewed below:

END

We can now state that we had an anti Trump FBI official as the leaker to the Wall Street Journal and a Washington Post reporter

(courtesy zerohedge)

Anti-Trump FBI Official Identified As Leaker To WSJ, WaPo Reporter

Newly released text messages between controversial anti-Trump FBI agents Peter Strzok and Lisa Page reveal several leaks of confidential information to Wall St. Journal reporter, Devlin Barrett, who is now with the Washington Post.

a
via Conservative Treehouse

Following the release of the timestamped texts by Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley, Conservative Treehouse compared the timing of the messages between the agents and tied them to several instances of Barrett breaking news or confirming rumors based on “sources” within the government.

Via the Conservative Treehouse:

On October 28th, 2016 (as above), at the exact time the re-opening of the Clinton investigation hit the media news-cycle, Page and Strzok were texting.  From the released messaging we see at 5:19pm Lisa Page is on the phone with “Devlin”:

Page: 5:19pm “Still on the phone with Devlin. Mike’s phone is ON FIRE.”

Strzok: 5:29pm “You might wanna tell Devlin he should turn on CNN, there’s news on.”

Page: 5:30pm “He knows. He just got handed a note.”

Strzok: 5:33pm “Ha. He asking about it now?”

Page: 5:34pm “Yeah. It was pretty funny. Coming now.”

At 5:36pm Devlin Barrett tweets:

a

​Sources, as in Lisa Page – who Barrett was just (or still) on the phone with.

Looking back upon the released text messages, and comparing them to reporting by Devlin Barrett, another specific article jumps out.

On October 23rd, 2016, Devlin Barrett reported on a scoop:

“Scoop: McAuliffe PAC gave $467,500 to campaign of wife of senior FBI official who oversaw Clinton email probe” (link)

a

(Tweet Link) and (Story Link)

This October 23rd, 2016, “scoop” aligns with the internal text messaging discussion between Agent Peter Strzok and FBI Attorney Lisa Page who were discussing James Comey’s chief-of-staff James Rybicki recommending that FBI Asst. Director Andrew “Andy” McCabe should be recused from the Hillary Clinton investigation.

From the messaging the recusal was discussed mid-through-late October 2016:

00:52am …”if it’s a matter similar to those we’ve been talking about lately”…

a

The Conservative Treehouse then notes that Barrett left the Wall Street Journal and joined the Washington Post, where he wrote a cover story to explain away a bizarre text between Strzok and Page referencing then-candidate Hillary Clinton:

“So look, you say we text on that phone when we talk about Hillary because it can’t be traced” “You were just venting, [because] you feel bad that you’re gone so much but that can’t be helped right now.”

In his WaPo piece, Barrett posits that the text was in reference to the extramarital affair the FBI agents were having with each other:

a

a

The WaPo article starts off:

Two senior FBI officials who texted each other about President Trump and Hillary Clinton relied on work phones to try to hide their romance from a spouse and made the bureau’s probe of Clinton’s private email server their cover story for being in such close contact, according to people familiar with the matter. –WaPo

We now have what appears to be evidence of an FBI official leaking information to a WSJ / WaPo reporter, who subsequently tweeted and wrote articles defending Page and Strzok, while throwing FBI deputy director Andy McCabe under the bus.

Then again, as the Conservative Treehouse notes, former FBI Director James Comey was doing the same thing.

end

Let us wrap up the week with this offering on the swamp, courtesy of Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog
(courtesy Greg HUnter/USAWatchdog)

MSM Plays FBI Cover-Up, Secret Society in DOJ & FBI, Dollar Dives Again

By Greg Hunter On January 26, 2018 In Weekly News Wrap-Ups

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (WNW 319 1.26.18)

The mainstream media (MSM) is finally beginning to cover the FBI/DOJ scandal to attack President Trump and his Administration, but they are doing it as a big “conspiracy theory” in the face of overwhelming publicly reported evidence of corruption and law breaking.

Senator Ron Johnson stated this week there was a “secret society” within the FBI and DOJ that has off site meetings “to map out survival strategy at the FBI.” Other Congressmen, who have seen an unreleased memo naming names of high ranking members of the FBO and DOJ, say jail time is coming for many because of corruption and crime. The crimes they are referring to involve exonerating Hillary Clinton in the face of obvious law breaking and attacking the Trump Administration with a phony dossier paid for by Hillary Clinton.

The U.S. dollar has been tanking this week and hit new 3-year lows in 2018. It’s now below 90 on the US Dollar Index. At the beginning of 2017, it was at 103. Can inflation be far behind?

Join Greg Hunter as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up.

Video Link

https://usawatchdog.com/msm-plays-fbi-cover-up-secret- society-in-doj-fbi-dollar-dives-again/

end

I will  see you FRIDAY night

HARVEY

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One comment

  1. Harvey, what is the source of your info re: exchange for physical settlements?
    Thanks.

    Like

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