APRIL 13/GOLD RISES BY $6.15 TO $1345.10/SILVER ADVANCES 17 CENTS TO $16.67/YESTERDAY’S RAID FAILS AS EFP TRANSFERS EQUATE TO LOSSES IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST/CHINA AND RUSSIA UP THE ANTE ON TARIFF DISPUTE AND SANCTIONS/HUGE NUMBER OF SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT/

April 13, 2018 · by · in Uncategorized · Leave a comment

 

 

GOLD: $1345.10  UP $ 6.15  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver: $16.67 UP 17 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Closing access prices:

Gold $1345.60

silver: $16.67

For comex gold:

APRIL/

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR APRIL CONTRACT:0 NOTICE(S) FOR nil OZ.

TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR 660 FOR 66000 OZ (2.053 tonnes)

THE COMEX IS OUT OF GOLD

For silver:

APRIL

0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

nil OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 144 for 720,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: BID $8069/OFFER $8169: up $200(morning)

Bitcoin: BID/ $8012/offer 8112: up $144  (CLOSING/5 PM)

 

end

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST SURPRISINGLY FELL AGAIN  BY A CONSIDERABLE  4019 CONTRACTS FROM  224,186  FALLING TO 220,167  WITH YESTERDAY’S 27 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING. . WE AGAIN HAD CONSIDERABLE COMEX LIQUIDATION. HOWEVER, WE WERE AGAIN NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD ANOTHER STRONG SIZED  NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP :  3756 EFP’S FOR MAY AND 157 FOR JULY AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE OF 3913 CONTRACTS. THUS ALL THE LOST COMEX CONTRACTS MORPHED INTO LONDON FORWARDS.  WITH THE TRANSFER OF 3913 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 3913 CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 19.565 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING THE FALL IN  SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR APRIL COMEX DELIVERY.

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF APRIL:

32,214 CONTRACTS (FOR 10 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 32,214 CONTRACTS) OR 161.070 MILLION OZ: AVERAGE PER DAY: 3,221 CONTRACTS OR 16.105 MILLION OZ/DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH:  161.070 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 23.01% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:  879.555 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018:                        236.879 MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018:                        244.95 MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018:                236.67 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX OF 4019  DESPITE THE 27 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICE. WE MUST HAVE HAD NO SHORTCOVERING BY THE BANKERS AS ALL OF THE LOST COMEX OPEN INTEREST LANDED IN LONDON AS FORWARDS.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD ANOTHER STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 3913 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER . FROM THE CME DATA 3756  EFP’S  FOR THE  MONTH OF MAY AND 137 EFP CONTRACTS FOR JULY,  WERE ISSUED FOR  A DELIVERABLE FORWARD CONTRACT OVER IN LONDON WITH A FIAT BONUS.   DESPITE THE MASSIVE RAID WE LOST ONLY  106 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: i.e. 3913 open interest contracts headed for London (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH AN DECREASE OF 4019  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH THE FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER OF 27 CENTS AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $16.50 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN THIS NON ACTIVE APRIL DELIVERY  MONTH.

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by WELL OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.1020 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 157% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT APRIL MONTH/ THEY FILED: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR nil OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER, WE HAVE NOW SET THE NEW RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51 WITH TRADING ON APRIL 9.2018.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH 27 MILLION OZ AND APRIL 1.8 MILLION OZ)
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER  243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION

AND YET WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT). IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE BANKER CAPITULATION IN SILVER AS THEY STRUGGLE TO REMOVE SOME OF THEIR HUGE OBLIGATIONS.

In gold, the open interest  FELL BY AN HUGE SIZED 17,748 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 514,001 ACCOMPANYING THE GOOD SIZED LOSS IN PRICE/YESTERDAY’S TRADING ( DROP OF $17.45).  WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL. THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A GIGANTIC SIZED 16,673 CONTRACTS :   JUNE SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 16,673 CONTRACTS , MAY SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 0 CONTRACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The new OI for the gold complex rests at 514,001. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. DEMAND FOR GOLD INTENSIFIES GREATLY AS WE CONTINUE TO WITNESS A HUGE NUMBER OF EFP TRANSFERS TOGETHER WITH THE MASSIVE INCREASE IN GOLD COMEX OI  TOGETHER WITH  THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF GOLD OUNCES STANDING FOR FEBRUARY COMEX. EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL  OI LOSS IN CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 17,748 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND AN GIGANTIC  SIZED 16,673 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON.THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS: 1075 CONTRACTS OR 107,500 OZ =3.34 TONNES. THUS DESPITE THE RAID AND JUST LIKE SILVER ALMOST ALL OF THE COMEX LOST OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS LANDED IN LONDON AS FORWARDS.

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 21,936  EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL : 110,788 CONTRACTS OR 11,078,800  OZ OR 344.59 TONNES (10 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 11,079 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY OR 1,107,800 OZ/ TRADING DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :   SO FAR THIS MONTH IN 10 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 344.59 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 344.59/2550 x 100% TONNES =  13.51% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN MARCH ALONE.*** THE ACCUMULATION OF EFP CONTRACTS IS RISING PER MONTH.

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE:  2,389.07 TONNES

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018:           653.22  TONNES

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018:         649.45 TONNES

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018:                741.89 TONNES

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE. 

Result: A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 17,748 ACCOMPANYING THE FALL IN PRICE // GOLD TRADING YESTERDAY ($17.40 LOSS). HOWEVER, WE HAD A HUGE  SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 16,673 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 16,673 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A SMALL NET LOSS OF 1075 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: (DESPITE THE RAID)

16,673 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 17,748 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the LOSS in total oi equates to 3.34 TONNES). WHEN THE BANKERS RAID, THE OBJECT OF THE EXERCISE IS TO CAUSE SPECULATOR OPEN INTEREST TO FALL I.E. FORCE OUR GOLD LEAVES TO FALL FROM THE GOLD TREE SUCH THAT OUR BANKERS COULD COVER THEIR SHORTFALL. IN BOTH  GOLD AND SILVER THE RAID FAILED DUE TO THE FACT THAT ALMOST ALL OF THE LOST OPEN INTEREST LANDED AS FORWARDS IN LONDON AND THEIR NET SHORTCOVERING WAS NEGLIGIBLE.

we had: 0 notice(s) filed upon for nil oz of gold at the comex.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD

WITH GOLD UP  $6.15 :  WE HAD A HUGE  CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ A DEPOSIT OF 5.90 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 865.89 tonnes.

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: NO  CHANGES/ 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE 4019 CONTRACTS from 224,186 DOWN TO 220,167 (AND AWAY FROM THE  NEW COMEX RECORD SET YESTERDAY/APRIL 9/2017). THE PREVIOUS RECORD OTHER THAN WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 ALMOST ONE YEAR AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.

TODAY’S TRADING, WITH THE RATHER LARGE COMEX LOSS OF 4019 CONTRACTS, OCCURRED AGAIN WITH THE CONSIDERABLE FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER (27 CENTS//). THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST HAS FALLEN FOR 4 CONSECUTIVE DAYS.  HOWEVER  OUR BANKERS ALSO USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE ANOTHER 3756 EFP CONTRACTS FOR MAY  (WE DO NOT GET A LOOK AT THESE CONTRACTS AS IT IS PRIVATE BUT THE CFTC DOES AUDIT THEM) AND 137 EFP’S FOR JULY AND ALL OTHER MONTHS. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  3913 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 4019 CONTRACTS TO THE 3913 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S, WE OBTAIN A SMALL NET LOSS 106 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  0.500 MILLION OZ!!! AND THIS OCCURRED DESPITE THE VICIOUS RAID ORCHESTRATED BY OUR CROOKED BANKERS AS THEY FAILED TO LOOSEN ANY APPRECIABLE AMOUNT OF SILVER..

RESULT: A LARGE SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE FALL IN SILVER PRICING / YESTERDAY (27 CENTS/BANKER SHORTCOVERING) . BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER GOOD SIZED 3913 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR APRIL, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER INTENSIFIES AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON. IN ESSENCE NO APPRECIABLE AMOUNT OF ACTUAL SILVER LEAVES FELL FROM THE SILVER TREE AND THE RAID ORCHESTRATED BY OUR BANKERS WAS A DISMAL FAILURE.

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed DOWN 21.06 POINTS OR 0.66%  /Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 22.90 POINTS OR 0.07%   / The Nikkei closed UP 118.46 POINTS OR 0.55%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .22% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.2805/Oil UP to 66.85 dollars per barrel for WTI and 71.70 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED IN THE GREEN    .   ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.2805 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.2760 /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING  MUCH STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE A FULL TRADE WAR IS BEGINNING/

SOUTH KOREA/NORTH KOREA

 

i)North Korea/South Korea

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 c CHINA

i)A good report showing why Trump is underestimating the power behind the Petro Yuan scheme.  One of China’s weapons in fighting the tariffs is the new scheme which will cause the demand for dollars throughout the world to fall

( Palisade-Research.com)

ii)Looks like a failure to communicate:  Trump plans on more tariffs on China as they confident threats are working.

( zerohedge)

iii)China escalates trade tensions by holding up the Bain/Qualcomm deal for Dutch semi conductor NXP

(courtesy zerohedge)

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)Russia is learning from its key ally China in that they may halt the exports of Titanium and other rare earths to the USA. Russia is the world’s largest exporter of Titanium to both Boeing and European rival Airbus

(courtesy zerohedge)

ii)THE FUN BEGINS (AND I BELIEVE THEM) THAT RUSSIA HAS IRREFUTABLE EVIDENCE THAT THE UK STAGED THE SYRIAN CHEMICAL ATTACK

( ZEROHEDGE)

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

7. OIL ISSUES

8. EMERGING MARKET

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)An anatomy of a fraud:  hundred of tonnes of paper gold were dumped on the futures market controlling gold/silver pricing even though war tensions were coming closer upon us

( Craig Hemke/GATA)

ii)Our crooked JPMorgan in action

( Ted Butler./gata)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

i a). USA data this morning

Soft data University of Michigan consumer confidence tumbles the most in 18 months

( zerohedge)

ib)The job scene seems to be normalizing to the downside with job openings tumbling as well as a drop in hirings.  The quits section rose a bit.

(courtesy zerohedge)

i c )Early morning trading:

( zerohedge)

ii)Interesting;  Chapter 11 bankruptcies spike a huge 63% from a year ago

( Wolf Richter/WolfStreet)

iii)A must read…the truth what is going on inside Syria especially Douma

( David Stockman/ContraCorner)

iv)Another good one from Meijer on the absurdity of what is going on in Syria.  Trump will be firing missiles at a decrepit Syrian infrastructure

( Raul Meijer)

v)Sec. of State to be Mike Pompeo already admits that Americans have killed a couple hundred Russians in Syria

( zerohedge)

vi)A second USA tomahawk capable destroyer enters the Mediterranean

(courtesy zerohedge)

vii)Trump goes against Sessions and promises to protect USA individual states the right for legalization of marijuana

(courtesy zerohedge)

vi)SWAMP STORIES

a)  White House officials had hoped that the Trump meeting with Rosenstein would calm his anger over the Cohen raid.  It did not as many are calling for Rosenstein’s firing.

( zerohedge)

Rosenstein consulted with an ethics advisor on whether to recuse himself from the Mueller probe.  Maybe he will recuse himself now to save his job

(courtesy zerohedge)

b)Trump is stating that there is tremendous pressure to end the cradling of sanctuary cities especially in California

( zerohedge)

c)The rhetoric between Comey and Trump getting louder by the day

( zerohedge)

d)Wow!! this is getting good;  Cohen is now at court trying to seek an injunction against the FBI form examining materials including digital recordings with clients who do business with Trump.  Cohen is claiming that lawyer -client information is privileged and it should be sacrosanct.

( zerohedge)

e)Rosenstein is reportedly ready to be fired

( zerohedge)

f)Rosenstein consulted with an ethics advisor on whether to recuse himself from the Mueller probe.  Maybe he will recuse himself now to save his job

( zerohedge)

Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest FELL BY AN HUGE SIZED 17,748 CONTRACTS DOWN to an OI level 514,001 WITH THE FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($17.45 LOSS/ YESTERDAY’S TRADING).   FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE.   THE CME REPORTS THAT  THE BANKERS ISSUED A HUGE SIZED  COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS. WE HAD 16,673 FOR  JUNE, 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAY AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:  TOTAL  16,673 CONTRACTS.  THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

IN ESSENCE,  ALMOST ALL OF THE LOST COMEX OPEN INTEREST LANDED AS LONDON FORWARDS AND NO GOLD LEAVES FELL FROM THE GOLD TREE.  THE RAID WAS A DISMAL FAILURE.THE COMEX IS NOW AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD!!

…

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 1075 OI CONTRACTS IN THAT 16,673 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST 17,748 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 1075 contracts OR 107,500  OZ OR 3.34 TONNES.

Result: AN HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST WITH THE FALL IN PRICE YESTERDAY  (ENDING UP WITH A LOSS OF $17.40)THE  TOTAL OPEN INTEREST LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 1075 OI CONTRACTS..

We have now entered the  active contract month of APRIL where we LOST 9 contracts LOWERING TO  1339 contracts.  We had 0 notices served  yesterday, so we lost 9  contracts or an additional 900 oz will not stand for delivery in this active delivery month of April and these lost contracts JOIN THEIR BROTHERS AS THEY MORPH INTO EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL CONTRACTS (EFP’S) ONCE THEY HAVE BEEN NEGOTIATED, WRITTEN UP AND SEALED. (i.e. London based forwards)

May saw A LOSS of 435 contracts to stand at 1295. The really big June contract month saw a LOSS of 14,091 contracts DOWN to 387,919 contracts.   The next big delivery month after June is August and here the OI FELL BY 3961 contracts DOWN to 49,598.

We had 0 notice(s) filed upon today for  nil oz at the comex

THERE IS NO QUESTION THAT THE COMEX DOES NOT HAVE ANY  GOLD TO SATISFY UPON OUR LONGS.

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY:143,739  contracts

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY: 424,759 contracts

comex gold volumes are RISING AGAIN

Here is a summary of the latest gold trading volumes at the Comex per year

certainly the introduction of EFP’s has certainly had an effect:

Meanwhile, gold-trading volumes on the COMEX have never been higher:

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI FELL AGAIN BY 4019 CONTRACTS FROM 224,186 DOWN TO 220,167 (AND AWAY FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET APRIL 9.2018)  ACCOMPANYING THE 27 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING.  HOWEVER, WE  ALSO WERE ALSO INFORMED THAT WE HAD A STRONG 3756 EMERGENCY EFP’S FOR MAY ISSUED BY OUR BANKERS: 137 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR JULY AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 3913.  WE SURPRISINGLY AND SHOCKINGLY HAD CONTINUAL LONG COMEX SILVER LIQUIDATION. HOWEVER THE RAID ORCHESTRATED BY THE BANKERS YESTERDAY WAS A DISMAL FAILURE AS NO ACTUAL SILVER LEAVES FELL FROM THE SILVER TREE:  THEY ALL MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.WE ARE ALSO WITNESSING A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR COMEX METAL IN THIS  NON ACTIVE OF APRIL AS WELL AS THE CONTINUAL MIGRATION OF EFPS OVER TO LONDON. ON A PERCENTAGE BASIS THERE ARE MORE EFP’S ISSUED FOR GOLD THAN SILVER.  ON A NET BASIS WE LOST 106 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A  4019 CONTRACT LOSS AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 3961 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET LOSS  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:106 CONTRACTS 

AMOUNT STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX

We are now in the non active delivery month of April and here the front month LOST 1 contract LOWERING TO  216 contracts.  We had 0 notices filed upon  so in essence we LOST 1 contract or 5,000 additional ounces of silver will NOT stand for delivery in this non active delivery month of April AND THEY MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

The next big active delivery month for silver will be May and here the OI LOST 10,087 contracts DOWN to 108,720. June saw a GAIN of 19 contracts to stand at 73.  The next big delivery month for silver is July and here the OI ROSE by 5735 contracts UP to 74,232.

We had 0 notice(s) filed for nil OZ for the APRIL 2018 contract for silver

INITIAL standings for APRIL/GOLD

APRIL 13/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
321500 oz
Scotia
100 kilobars
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  nil OZ
No of oz served (contracts) today
0 notice(s)
 nil OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
1339 contracts
(133,900 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
660 notices
66,000 OZ
2.053 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz
 from the last week of March til today, we have had only 3 small entries for gold and they were all of the “kilobars” variety
From my vantage point, the comex is void of gold.  This rarely happens in a delivery month as gold is called upon to deliver.
***
we had 1 kilobar transaction/
We had 0 inventory movement at the dealer accounts
total inventory deposit into the dealer accounts:  NIL  oz
total inventory withdrawals out of dealer accounts; nil oz
we had 1 withdrawals out of the customer account:
i) Out of Scotia: 3215.000 oz  (100 kilobars)
total withdrawal:  3215.00   oz
we had 0 customer deposit
total customer deposits: nil oz
we had 0 adjustment(s)

For APRIL:
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 0 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the APRIL. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (660) x 100 oz or 66000 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL. (1339 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (0 x 100 oz per contract) equals 199,900 oz, the number of ounces standing in this active month of APRIL (6.189 tonnes)

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the APRIL contract month:

No of notices served (660 x 100 oz or ounces + {(1339)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (0 x 100 oz )which equals 199,900 oz standing in this  active delivery month of APRIL . THERE IS 12.003 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY SO FAR.

WE LOST 9 COMEX OI CONTRACTS OR 900 OZ OF GOLD WILL NOT STAND BUT  THESE GUYS  MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

total registered or dealer gold:  385,923.014 oz or 12.003 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   9,058.983.720 oz 281.77 tones
THE COMEX IS AGAIN IN STRESS AS ONLY 12.003 TONNES OF GOLD ARE LEFT TO SERVICE DELIVERIES. THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD AT THE COMEX TO SERVE UPON LONGS AND THUS THE REASON FOR THE EFP TRANSFER OVER TO LONDON.

IN THE LAST 18 MONTHS 72 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE APRIL DELIVERY MONTH

APRIL INITIAL standings/SILVER

APRIL 13/ 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 374,475.06
  oz
Delaware
Scotia
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil
oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
 nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
0
CONTRACT(S
nil OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
216 contracts
(1,080,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 144 contracts

(720,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

total dealer deposits:  nil oz

we had 0 deposits into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 140 million oz of  total silver inventory or 53.4% of all official comex silver. (140 million/263 million)

JPMorgan did not  deposit  into its warehouses (official) today.

ii) into everybody else  0  oz

total deposits today: zero  oz

we had 2 withdrawals from the customer account;

i) Out of Delaware: 2999.90 oz

ii) Out of Scotia: 374,475.06 oz

total withdrawals;  377,474.960   oz

we had 0 adjustment

total dealer silver:  59.452 million

total dealer + customer silver:  263.191 million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the APRIL. contract month is represented by 0 contract(s) FOR nil oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in APRIL., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 144 x 5,000 oz = 720,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of April. (216) and the number of notices served upon today (0 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the APRIL contract month: 140(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of April(216) -number of notices served upon today (0)x 5000 oz equals 1,800,000 oz of silver standing for the April contract month 

WE LOST 1  SILVER CONTRACT OR 5000 ADDITIONAL OUNCES WILL NOT STAND IN THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 32,026 CONTRACTS

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 128,794 CONTRACTS

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 128,794 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO  644 MILLION OZ OR 92.0% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV  FALLS TO -2.17% (APRIL 13/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.67% to NAV (APRIL 13/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -2.17%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ territory at -0.67%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail but being rescued by Sprott.
Sprott WINS hostile 3.1 billion bid to take over Central Fund of Canada

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA): NAV FALLS TO -2.39%: NAV 13.86/TRADING 13.53//DISCOUNT 2.39.

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

April 13/WITH GOLD UP $6.15, A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.90 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES

April 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.40/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.99 TONNES

April 11/WITH GOLD UP $13.85/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859,99 TONNES

APRIL 10/WITH GOLD UP $5.25/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.99 TONNES

APRIL 9/WITH GOLD UP$4.50/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.99 TONNES

APRIL 6/WITH GOLD UP $7.50 ,A HUGE CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ A DEPOSIT OF 5.90 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.99 TONNES

APRIL 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.20 WE HAD TWO ENTRIES: 1) TINY WITHDRAWAL OF .28 TONNES TO PAY FOR FEES AND 2) A DEPOSIT OF 2.06 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.09 TONNES

April 4/WITH GOLD UP $2.90 WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.31 TONNES

APRIL 3./WITH GOLD DOWN $9.30 WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.31 TONNES

APRIL 2/WITH GOLD UP $19.50, WE HAD A BIG  CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 6.19 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.31 TONNES

MARCH 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.20 AND OPTIONS EXPIRY FINISHED, WE HAD NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS A 846.12 TONNES

March 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.70, ANOTHER RAID ORCHESTRATED, AGAIN NO SURPRISES AS WE WITNESS ANOTHER 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD REMOVED/INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.12 TONNES

MARCH 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.70 AND A RAID INITIATED, IT WAS NO SURPRISE TO SEE THAT A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.24 TONNES WAS USED IN THE ABOVE RAID/INVENTORY RESTS AT 847.30 TONNES

MARCH 26./WITH GOLD UP $4.60/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 850.54 TONNES

MARCH 23/WITH GOLD UP $23.30/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 850.54 TONNES

MARCH 22.WITH GOLD UP $5.90, NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 850.54 TONNES/

MARCH 21/WITH GOLD UP $9.65 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 850.54 TONNES

March 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.75, A SURPRISING HUMONGOUS DEPOSIT OF 10.32 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 850.64 TONNES/

SO FAR, FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH, THE GLD HAS ADDED 19.61 TONNES WITH A NET LOSS OF $17.45

March 19/WITH GOLD UP $5.25: ANOTHER HUGE DEPOSIT OF GOLD TO THE TUNE OF 2.07 TONNES/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 840.22 TONNES

MARCH 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.65/OUR CROOKS DEPOSITED ANOTHER 4.42 TONNES INTO GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 838.15 TONNES

FOR THE WEEK: GOLD LOST  $11.80, BUT GOLD INVENTORY ADVANCED:4.42 TONNES

MARCH 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.85, NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.73 TONNES

MARCH 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.55/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.73 TONNES

MARCH 13/WITH GOLD UP $6.25/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.73 TONNES

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

APRIL 12/2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 865.89 tonnes

*IN LAST 361 TRADING DAYS: 75.15 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 311 TRADING DAYS: A NET 81.15 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO GLD INVENTORY.

end

Now the SLV Inventory/

April 13/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ.

April 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/

April 11/2018/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS:  NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 10/WITH GOLD UP 8 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 9/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS/WE HAD NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 6/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS, WE HAD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.319 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ

APRIL 5/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.877 MILLION OZ/

April 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS/A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A WITHRAWAL OF 135,000 OZ AND THIS IS PROBABLY TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.877 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 3./WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 2/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 29/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS, THE CROOKS DECIDED THAT THEY HAD BETTER ADD SOME 943,000 PAPER OZ TO THEIR INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ

March 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS/AGAIN NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ

MARCH 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 23/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS, A HAD A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.602 MILLION OZ.INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 22/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT, NO CHANGE IN SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.671 MILLION OZ/

March 21/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.671 MILLION OZ/

March 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.671 MILLION OZ/

March 19/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS, THE SLV ADDS A SMALL 659,000 OZ TO ITS INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.671 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ.

FOR THE WEEK;  SILVER IS DOWN 42 CENTS YET ADDS 943,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/

MARCH 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 13/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ/

HAD ANOTHER HUGE ADDITION OF 1.315 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.590 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 13/2018:  A NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:  

Inventory 320.196 million oz

end

6 Month MM GOFO 2.04/ and libor 6 month duration 2.48

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0FO+ 2.04%

libor 2.48 FOR 6 MONTHS/

GOLD LENDING RATE: .44%

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.72%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.46

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.26

end

At 3:30 pm we receive the COT report which gives position levels of the major players at the comex.  However due to the huge transfers of contracts to London through the EFP route, this report is useless. But for completeness I will include it for you

First gold COT

Gold COT Report – Futures
Large Speculators Commercial Total
Long Short Spreading Long Short Long Short
234,457 79,085 52,761 166,796 342,448 454,014 474,294
Change from Prior Reporting Period
-220 10,997 750 4,188 -9,025 4,718 2,722
Traders
185 69 72 48 56 264 170
 
Small Speculators  
Long Short Open Interest  
45,574 25,294 499,588  
1,729 3,725 6,447  
non reportable positions Change from the previous reporting period
COT Gold Report – Positions as of Tuesday, April 10, 2018

Our large speculators

on a net basis our large specs who have been long in gold pitched (transferred) 220 contracts from their long side

those large specs who have been short in gold added 10,997 contracts to their short side

Our commercials

those commercials who are long in gold added 4188 contracts to their long side

those commercials who are short in gold covered (transferred) 9025 contracts from their short side

Our small speculators

those small specs who have been long in gold added 1729 contracts to their long side

those small specs who have been short in gold added 3725 contracts to their short side

Conclusions: not worth the paper it is printed on

And now silver COT

Silver COT Report: Futures
Large Speculators Commercial
Long Short Spreading Long Short
65,033 79,866 46,178 83,340 87,918
-936 -3,068 -1,786 -3,076 -1,135
Traders
111 57 51 46 41
Small Speculators Open Interest Total
Long Short 227,175 Long Short
32,624 13,213 194,551 213,962
291 482 -5,507 -5,798 -5,989
non reportable positions Positions as of: 181 132

Our large speculators

those large specs that have been long in silver pitched (transferred) 936 contracts from their long side

those small specs that have been short in silver covered (transferred) 3068 contracts from their short side.

 

Our commercials

those commercials that have been long in silver pitched (transferred) 3076 contracts from their long side

those commercials that have been short in silver covered/ transferred a net 1135 contracts from their short side

 

Our small speculators

those small specs that have been long in silver added 291 contracts to their long side

those small specs that have been short in silver added 482 contracts to their short side

Conclusions: same as gold.

Major gold/silver trading /commentaries for FRIDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.

GOLD/SILVER

Volatile Week Sees Oil and Palladium Surge Over 8%, Gold and Silver Marginally Higher and Stocks Gain

– Gold & silver eke out small gains; palladium surges 8% and platinum 2%
– Oil (WTI) surges over 8% to over $66.90/bbl; supply disruption risk
– U.S. dollar and Treasuries fall; geopolitical, trade war and fiscal concerns
– Stocks rally and shrug off trade war, macro and geo-political risks
– Bitcoin, major cryptos (Ethereum, Ripple etc) rise sharply
– Russia-US tensions high: Trump warns attack ‘could be very soon or not so soon at all’

Source: Finviz

In what has been a volatile week with concerns about the U.S. bombing Syria and a wider war in the Middle East involving Russia, oil has surged over 8% and is headed for the biggest weekly advance in more than eight months.

Tensions and a war in the Middle East may lead to supply disruptions Goldman Sachs has warned. This has led to a buy call on commodities by Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Precious metals saw gains with palladium surging over 8%, platinum by 2%, silver by 1.1% and gold by 0.6%.

The U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasuries have retreated this week possibly on concerns of the impact of yet another war on the balance sheet and deteriorating fiscal position of the U.S.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is now projecting that annual US budget deficits will rise above the trillion dollar mark in 2020. This is two years sooner than what the agency was projecting just 10 months ago.

Despite these risks, world stocks are set to post their biggest weekly gain in over a month. Investors have so far shrugged off the uncertainty over the prospect of global trade wars and over the escalating tension in the entire Middle East.

Global stock markets have had a volatile week, partly due to U.S. President Donald Trump’s volatile and risky “Twitter diplomacy” and his tendency to abruptly change his mind over key policy and geo-political issues.

Bitcoin surged yesterday to its highest level in two weeks and is over 20% higher in the week. The most popular cryptocurrency has risen back above the $7,500 level.

Bitcoin has seen a very sharp fall this year and fell from an all-time high above $19,000 reached at the end of 2017. Other cryptos also saw strong gains. Yesterday, ethereum was up 10.8 per cent, Ripple 12.4 per cent and Bitcoin Cash 8.3 per cent. All are up sharply in the week.

Bitcoin’s gains are in sharp contrast to gold’s lacklustre performance.

Listen on SoundCloud , Blubrry & iTunes. Watch on YouTube below

Gold’s muted performance this week is surprising given the scale of risk and volatility. Investment demand has risen sharply this week and bullion dealers internationally including GoldCore have seen strong demand or gold coins and bars.

Investment demand for paper gold and gold ETFs has also risen sharply on safe haven demand.

The gold price appears to have been capped this week due to a renewed bout of massive, concentrated selling in the futures market. The equivalent of a few hundred tonnes of ‘electronic gold’ in the form gold futures contracts were dumped onto the gold market which capped gold’s gains.

Given the likelihood of a continuing increase in global investment demand, we expect gold prices to eke out further gains in the coming months. Both the technicals and the fundamentals look increasingly positive with macro and geo-political risk set to remain elevated for the foreseeable future.

Listen on SoundCloud , Blubrry & iTunes. Watch on YouTube below

News and Commentary

Gold rises on Syria concerns, on track for second week of gains (Reuters.com)

Biggest Gold ETF Nets $1B in 2018 Inflows (ETFTrends.com)

Asian markets gain despite ‘fragile’ investor sentiment (MarketWatch.com)

Bitcoin Surges Most Since December After Breaching Key Levels (Bloomberg.com)

Gold Inches Up as Syria Tensions Weigh (Investing.com)

Trade War Fears Are Creating A Rush To Gold ETFs (ZeroHedge.com)

Hundreds of tonnes of paper gold were dumped on the futures market (TFMetalsReport.com)

Explosion more likely than bull market in precious metals – GATA Chairman (GoldSeek.com)

Gold Holding Its Own (MarketOracle.co.uk)

UK housing market slowdown is rippling out from London (MoneyWeek.com)

London property slump most widespread since financial crisis (TheGuardian.com)

Gold is taking back its crown from bitcoin as best defensive play – Strategist (CNBC.com)

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

12 Apr: USD 1,345.90, GBP 951.01 & EUR 1,090.99 per ounce
11 Apr: USD 1,345.20, GBP 947.96 & EUR 1,087.86 per ounce
10 Apr: USD 1,335.95, GBP 942.25 & EUR 1,083.46 per ounce
09 Apr: USD 1,328.50, GBP 941.91 & EUR 1,082.33 per ounce
06 Apr: USD 1,325.60, GBP 946.08 & EUR 1,082.75 per ounce
05 Apr: USD 1,327.05, GBP 943.67 & EUR 1,080.75 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

12 Apr: USD 16.66, GBP 11.74 & EUR 13.50 per ounce
11 Apr: USD 16.57, GBP 11.67 & EUR 13.39 per ounce
10 Apr: USD 16.49, GBP 11.65 & EUR 13.38 per ounce
09 Apr: USD 16.34, GBP 11.59 & EUR 13.32 per ounce
06 Apr: USD 16.28, GBP 11.61 & EUR 13.30 per ounce
05 Apr: USD 16.31, GBP 11.59 & EUR 13.28 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– EU and Euro Exposed To Risks Including Trade Wars and War With Russia In Middle East
– Trump Tweets Russia “Get Ready” For Missiles In Syria – Gold, Oil Rise and Stocks Fall
– Private: EU and Euro Exposed To Trade Wars, Energy Dependence, Anti-EU and Anti-Euro Movements
– Trump Making ‘Major Decisions’ on Syria, Iran and Russia Response ‘Very Quickly’
– Gold Out Performs Stocks In 2018 and This Century By Ratio Of Two To One
– Jamie Dimon Warns Of Potential ‘Market Panic’
– Silver Bullion: Should We Be Worried About Silver?
– Martin Luther King Jr. Anniversary: Reminds Us Of Costs Of War To Society and Financial System
– Gold Outperforms Stocks In Q1, 2018
– Brexit, Stagflation Pressures UK High Street
– Gold Is Money While Currencies Today Are “IOU Nothings”
– “Stars Are Slowly Aligning For Gold” – Frisby
– Uncle Sam Issuing $300 Billion In New Debt This Week Alone

Mark O’Byrne

-END- 

Andrew Maguire’s Kinesis money which is a “bitcoin” but backed 100% by allocated gold and silver is set to go.

it think it would be a great idea to look at this!

please read at:  https://kinesis.money/#/

(Andrew Maguire)

Andrew Maguire
2:57 PM (1 hour ago)
to me

Harvey

Here It is my friend!  https://kinesis.money/#/ Please let everyone know.

Let catch up on Monday if you have time. We have billions in the hopper ready to be allocated on the 1st day of trading. The paper market days are over.

Warm regards

Andy

_________________
___________________________________________________________________

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

 

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP 6.2805  /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 21.06 POINTS OR 0.66%   / HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 22.90 POINTS OR 0.07%
2. Nikkei closed UP 118.46 POINTS OR 0.55%/  /USA: YEN RISES TO 107.73/  

3. Europe stocks OPENED IN THE GREEN     /USA dollar index RISES TO 89.84/Euro FALLS TO 1.2316

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO . +.038/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 107.73/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD FINALLY IN THE POSITIVE/BANK OF JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR YIELD CURVE AS THEY PURCHASE ALL BONDS TO GET TO ZERO RATE!!

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 66.85  and Brent: 71.70

3f Gold UP/Yen DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.5221%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 1.814% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.260%

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 4.01?????????????????

3k Gold at $1337.90 silver at:16.53     7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 29/100 in roubles/dollar) 61.67

3m oil into the 67 dollar handle for WTI and 71 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 107.73 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9623 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1856 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to +0.522%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.8395% early this morning (THIS IS DEADLY TO ALL MARKETS). Thirty year rate at 3.0439% /

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)

Welcome To Friday 13th: Global Stocks Levitate As Trade And Hot War Fears Recede

As DB’s Jim Reid says this morning, “Welcome to Friday 13th. As everything is so calm and stable in the world at the moment what could possibly go wrong today?” As of this moment, not much judging by the solid bid in overnight markets.

Are stocks getting trade and/or “hot” war burnout on this ominous day in the calendar? Judging by the relatively lethargic overnight volumes, this may be the case. And with volumes low, it means the levitation algos have been activated, pushing both US stock futures…

… and global markets modestly in the green.

European equities trade modestly higher (Stoxx 600 +0.3%), reaching a six-week high with builders and miners leading the gains to a third-straight weekly gain, largely due to the US (at the time of writing) having taken no decision on what (if any) military action should be taken on Syria with today’s light calendar also failing to provide any major impetus for stocks. The bullish cash has gotten a boost from trade-sensitive sectors in Europe after Trump expressed optimism on a deal with China and after reports late Thursday he was considering rejoining the TPP pact.

Moves have largely been noted in individual stock rather than broader based macro ones with equities resilient against new Russian sanctions vs. the US. Individual movers include Sage Group (-13%) after cutting guidance, Hammerson (-12%) are also lower after Klepierre’s (+1%) withdrawal of their acquisition offer. Finally, Volkswagen shares up 1.0% after their current CEO is to be replaced by Diess, who will be responsible for group research.

Earlier in the session, Asian equities were broadly higher as the region took its cues from the US, where sentiment was underpinned after US President Trump tweets further alleviated fears of an imminent strike on Syria. This resulted to firm gains across all US major indices, while the financial sector outperformed as yields rose in the wake of the recent hawkish FOMC minutes. As such ASX 200 (+0.3%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.6%) were positive with Australian financials mostly kept afloat following an upbeat Financial Stability Review, while Japan benefitted from the weaker currency-heightened risk dynamic. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (Unch.) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.4%) were underpinned at the open but then pared gains as the risk tone deteriorated following disappointing Chinese trade data and a CNY 100bln net weekly drain by the PBoC, while the White House was also reported to be planning to escalate trade pressure on China.

Meanwhile, S&P futures recovered from session lows seen in Asia. U.S. financials in focus as JPMorgan and Citigroup kick off bank earnings today. Bunds trim earlier losses; Treasuries hold gains across the curve, with long-end outperforming. RUB outperforms major currencies versus USD, trimming a weekly decline; JPY at bottom of the pile. WTI climbs above $67 to a three-year high; nickel leads base-metal gains in London. The dollar weakened as Treasury yields dipped after rising above 2.8 percent Thursday.

In commodities, crude oil climbed to a three-year peak after the International Energy Agency said a global glut that weighed on prices is close to being cleared. The commodity extended a rally sparked by escalating tensions in the Middle East. Aluminum headed for its biggest weekly increase since at least 1987 on concern U.S. sanctions on Russia’s United Co. Rusal will disrupt supplies. Copper, zinc and nickel also gained, along with gold.

In the latest trade war news, the White House is planning to increase trade pressure on China, according to reports in WSJ, additionally US Trade Representative will detail list of goods as early as next week that may be subject to 25% tariffs as part of possible USD 100bln of additional tariffs on China, according to reports in WSJ.

Russian lawmakers have drafted legislation for sanctions on US goods including Tobacco, agriculture, medicine and consultancy. US equity futures held strong on this news.

In geopolitical developments, UK PM May and US President Trump spoke on Thursday and agreed it was vital to deter the further use by Syrian government of chemicals weapons, say that chemical weapons use must not go unchallenged. As we also noted overnight, there have been unconfirmed reports US President Trump put off his final decision regarding strikes on Syria after meeting with security advisers, amid internal conflict with US Secretary of Defense Mattis and National Security Adviser Bolton.

Expected data include University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, and Fed’s Eric Rosengren is scheduled to speak on economic outlook. Citigroup, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and PNC are among companies reporting earnings

Bulletin headline summary from RanSquawk

  • Syrian tensions and Russian sanctions the key focus as markets await further direction from Trump
  • Cable and AUD showing strong bids, as risk currencies lose and safe havens bid out
  • Looking ahead Uni. of Michigan, Fed’s Rosengren, Bullard and Kaplan, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo and Citigroup earnings

Top Overnight News

  • TPP nations welcome Trump’s interest but don’t want renegotiation; earlier, Trump tweeted that U.S. would only join TPP if it gets a “substantially better” deal
  • The prudent, persistent and patient monetary policy approach followed by the Governing Council so far is fully justified, says ECB Governing Council member Jan Smets
  • China March trade balance -29.8b yuan vs +181.0b yuan estimate; exports -9.8% vs +8.0% est; imports +5.9% vs +7.5% est; China posted a surprise trade deficit in March, the first since Feb. 2017
  • The Reserve Bank of Australia said international investors are underpricing the risk of an economic shock that could alter the outlook for financial markets
  • Singapore’s central bank made a measured change to policy, allowing its currency to strengthen in the face of solid economic growth, while also acknowledging mounting risks from a U.S.-China trade war
  • OPEC is on the verge of “mission accomplished” in its quest to clear the global oil glut that caused the worst industry downturn in a generation, the International Energy Agency said
  • S&P changed Japan’s A+ outlook to positive from stable
  • Trump, May discuss joint response to Syria chemical weapons attack
  • IEA says OPEC near “mission accomplished” as oil glut vanishes

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 2,666.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 379.53
  • MSCI Asia Pacific up 0.2% to 173.98
  • MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan up 0.08% to 571.68
  • Nikkei up 0.6% to 21,778.74
  • Topix up 0.6% to 1,729.36
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.07% to 30,808.38
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.7% to 3,159.05
  • Sensex up 0.3% to 34,211.34
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 5,829.08
  • Kospi up 0.5% to 2,455.07
  • German 10Y yield rose 0.9 bps to 0.524%
  • Euro up 0.06% to $1.2335
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 1.1 bps to 1.559%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.2 bps to 1.252%
  • Brent futures up 0.7% to $72.54/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.5% to $1,340.97
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 89.72

Asian equity markets were mostly higher as the region partially took cue from Wall St, where sentiment was underpinned after US President Trump tweets further alleviated fears of an imminent strike on Syria. This resulted to firm gains across all US major indices, while the financial sector outperformed as yields rose in the wake of the recent hawkish FOMC minutes. As such ASX 200 (+0.3%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.6%) were positive with Australian financials mostly kept afloat following an upbeat Financial Stability Review, while Japan benefitted from the weaker currency-heightened risk dynamic. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (Unch.) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.4%) were underpinned at the open but then pared gains as the risk tone deteriorated following disappointing Chinese trade data and a CNY 100bln net weekly drain by the PBoC, while the White House was also reported to be planning to escalate trade pressure on China. HKMA intervened in FX markets again and was said to have purchased HKD 2.44bln to support HKD in defence of the peg.

Top Asian News

  • China Exports Post Seasonal Drop, Leaving Surprise Trade Deficit
  • Techcombank Draws GIC, Fidelity to $922 Million Vietnam IPO
  • Qatar’s $12 Billion Bond Tops Saudi Debt Sale to Lead EM

Equities trade modestly higher (Stoxx 600 +0.3%). This is largely due to the US (at the time of writing) having taken no decision on what (if any) military action should be taken on Syria with today’s light calendar also failing to provide any major impetus for stocks. As such, moves have largely been noted in individual stock rather than broader based macro ones with equities resilient against new Russian sanctions vs. the US. Individual movers include Sage Group (-13%) after cutting guidance, Hammerson (-12%) are also lower after Klepierre’s (+1%) withdrawal of their acquisition offer. Finally, Volkswagen shares up 1.0% after their current CEO is to be replaced by Diess, who will be responsible for group research.

Top European News

  • ECB Looks Down Stimulus Exit Path as Politics Threaten Economy
  • VW Names Diess CEO in Sweeping Overhaul to Set Future Course
  • Italy’s Center-Right, Five Star Quarrel as Deadlock Persists
  • Ruble Claws Back Ground as Morgan Stanley Warns on Volatility
  • Billionaire Pulls Back From Brink on Czech Extremist Backing

In currencies, it was a relatively subdued session. AUD:  No sign of contagion or concern over a surprise Chinese trade deficit despite the ongoing import tariff spat with the US, as Aud/Usd finally broke through major chart resistance around 0.7785 and triggered stops to probe just above 0.7800 before running out of steam ahead of a fib at 0.7812 and the 200 DMA at 0.7815. NZD: Kiwi also firmer vs the Usd and nudging up towards 0.7400 again, but lagging its antipodean peer as the Aud/Nzd cross rebounds from just below 1.0500 to 1.0550+ on Aud short covering from a more oversold base. GBP: Another G10 outperformer, with Cable almost up to 1.4300 having breached the recent 1.4244-50 range high and now looking at the 1.4345 ytd peak if the nearest big figure is taken out. On that note, further Eur/Gbp selling could give the Pound another boost with market contacts hearing talk of decent demand for downside option strikes  and little in the way of technical support before 0.8600. JPY: Still lagging amongst majors and the main victim of less aversion/tension surrounding trade wars and Syria (for now at least), with Usd/Jpy up through the 107.50-55 zone, which marked the top of late and included a fib level, before tripping some buy orders above 107.60. CHF: Choppy trade in the Franc, with Usd/Chf higher early in the EU session and eyeing the 200DMA at 0.9650-60 amidst speculation about Russian outflows, but back down towards 0.9600 as Russia unveils counter-sanctions vs the US. DXY: Just about maintaining positive momentum above 89.500 with more support coming from US President Trump who is now open to re-joining the TPP, if the terms are favourable, and is still holding off from any strike against Syria to assess chemical attack evidence.

In commodities, WTI (+0.8%) and Brent (+0.8%) are setting new weekly highs, as ongoing tensions over Syria fuel the rally. This follows initial reports that the US was planning to strike 8 targets in Syria, but traders are mindful that US Press Secretary Sanders said no final decision was made. Furthermore, the UK cabinet backed military action against Syria. Elsewhere, the IEA monthly oil market report highlighted forecasts for 2018 global oil demand growth to remain unchanged from the prior month’s report of 1.5mln bpd. Moving onto metals, Gold (+0.1%) is marginally higher as the yellow metal tracks dollar weakness. In terms of base metals, copper (+0.6%) is higher on the day, however, the upside is capped by disappointing Chinese trade data. Aluminium (+13.8% this week) set for its best week since 1987 amid rising concerns of supply disruptions regarding Russian sanctions.

US Event Calendar

  • 10am: JOLTS Job Openings, est. 6,024, prior 6,312
  • 10am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 100.5, prior 101.4; Current Conditions, prior 121.2; Expectations, prior 88.8

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Welcome to Friday 13th. As everything is so calm and stable in the world at the moment what could possibly go wrong today? Thanks to all the German readers yesterday who told me my asthma earlier this week was due to a strong dose of birch pollen doing the rounds in Frankfurt at the moment and at this time of year. I’ll have to remember that if Brexit goes horribly wrong.

This week it seems that having the quickest internet connection in the world and getting Mr Trump’s tweets a fraction before everyone else would have been your best chance of success as we trade the range between his  positive and negative sound bites on trade and Syria.

Yesterday was a fairly decent day for risk as, just a day after it appeared tensions had hit a critical point, a softening rhetoric from President Trump helped markets bounce back sharply. Specifically it was Trump’s tweet yesterday morning where he suggested he “Never said when an attack on Syria would take place. Could be very soon or not so soon at all!” Elsewhere Moscow’s ambassador to the UN Nebenzia urged the US and its allies to refrain from military actions and noted “the immediate priority is to avert the danger of war”. On trade, Trump said China’s President Xi is “going to get rid of a lot of taxes and tariffs” and the two countries may end up levying no new tariffs on each other. Elsewhere, he told Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and economic advisor Larry Kudlow to explore the possibility of re-joining the Trans-pacific partnership (TPP) trade accord, which he had previously pulled out from. Then on NAFTA, Trump said negotiations are “coming along great” but conceded “there’s no timeline” on a potential deal as it could be 3 or 4 weeks or even 2 or 5 months away.

By the end of play the S&P 500 closed +0.83% and the Dow +1.21%. European markets also closed up with the Stoxx 600 (+0.70%) and DAX (+0.98%) both up while FTSE was marginally higher (+0.02%). Bond markets were a bit weaker given the risk on tone, yields on UST 10y rose 5.5bps to 2.837% while Gilts was up 6.4bp in the absence of material economic news flow. Elsewhere, Gold sold off -1.36%, the VIX retreated -8.7% to 18.49 while WTI oil  rose for the fourth consecutive day to be up 8.1% overall this week (+0.37% yesterday).

Today markets will at least have something fundamental to turn their attention to with US bank earnings kicking off for Q1. Indeed, JP Morgan, Citi and Wells Fargo are all due to report just prior the open. Yesterday, Blackrock  (+1.5%) and Delta airlines’ (+2.9%) share price both rose following a better than expected quarterly result. As a reminder, DB’s Binky Chadha published a preview report at the start of the week in which he noted that the bottom up consensus for S&P 500 EPS growth in Q1 is a robust 18.4% on pcp which would mark an acceleration from the 15.2% growth in Q4. He also highlighted that a typical median beat (around 3.4%) would raise growth to an impressive 22.2%. You can find more in Binky’s report here.

This morning in Asia, markets are mixed with the Nikkei (+0.51%) and Kospi (+0.49%) both up while the Hang Seng (-0.08%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.31%) are modestly down as we type. Datawise, China’s March trade balance was well below market at -$5.0bln (vs. $27.5bln expected) mainly due to an unexpected decline in exports growth (-2.7% yoy vs. 11.8% expected), which follows a strong February reading of +44.1%. In the US, following his prior tweets on Amazon, President Trump has now ordered the creation of a task force to examine the United States Postal Service’s pricing, policies and workforce costs and noted the USPS “must be restructured to prevent a tax-payer funded bailout”.

Now recapping other markets performance from yesterday. In bonds, Spain’s 10y yields slightly outperformed  (-1.7bp) ahead of a potential credit rating upgrade by Moody’s from Baa2 to Baa1, which would bring it in line with S&P and Fitch. Turning to FX, the US dollar index firmed for the first time in five days (+0.20%), while the Euro was down -0.32% following the slightly dovish ECB minutes. In commodities, most LME base metals weakened but aluminium rose for the seventh consecutive day to a c6 year high (+3.33% yesterday). DB’s Nick Snowdon and team takes a closer look at the potential supply disruptions given the US sanctions on Rusal – the world’s second largest producer (Link).

Moving onto the ECB minutes and central bankers speak now. The minutes indicated that “…the broadly agreed conclusion was that the evidence for a sustained rise in inflation toward levels consistent with the Governing council’s inflation aim was still not sufficient”. Further, “there was widespread concern that the risk of trade conflicts, which could be expected to have an adverse impact on activity for all countries involved, had increased”. In terms of the recent softening in economic indicators, the ECB’s Coeure didn’t seem to be too concerned as he noted “the possibility of larger than estimated slack does not mean that monetary policy will have to remain unchanged”. Elsewhere on inflation, the ECB’s Weidmann noted the price-stability goal must not be weakened and that he “rejects any proposal to let inflation overshoot the 2% threshold for some time or to raise the inflation goal”. In the US, the Fed’s Kashkari reiterated that a trade war “will be enormously bad for the US and global economy”.

Following on, DB’s Peter Sidorov has published a report looking at the impact that QE has had on money supply growth in recent years and estimate the likely impact from the ending of QE later this year. Peter notes that the slower pace of QE since the start of the year has been dragging on broad money (M3) growth and he expects this to weigh a little further in the next print on 30 April. However, Peter and the team are not expecting the slowdown in money growth to be severe or persistent. Private sector money creation – new lending – is gradually rising and should play an increasing role as we move into 2019 (Link).

Now turning back to Syria. In the UK, PM May’s cabinet has issued a statement noting that it “agreed on the need to take action to alleviate humanitarian distress and to deter the further use of the chemical weapons by the Assad regime”. Over in France, President Macron said “we have proof that…chemical weapons were used…by the regime of Bashar al-Assad” and “we’ll need to take decisions in due course, when we judge it most useful and effective”.

In credit, Michal in my team has published a one-page report “IG Strategy Data Flash: Strong US Credit Inflows as European IG Fund Outflows Go On”. It provides charts and short commentary on the latest IG bond fund flows and puts them in the broader context of flows in other asset classes. You can download the report here.

Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the March import price index was flat mom but annual growth still rose to an 11-month high of 3.6% yoy (vs. 3.8% expected). The weekly initial jobless claims (233k vs. 230k expected) and continuing claims (1,871k vs. 1,843k expected) were both higher than expectations. The Euro area’s February IP fell for the third consecutive month and was below market at -0.8% mom (vs. 0.1% expected) and 2.9% yoy (vs. 3.6% expected). The main driver for the weakness was a decline in the production of capital goods during the month. Elsewhere, the final reading for France’s March CPI was confirmed at 1.7% yoy while Sweden’s CPI was slightly below market at 1.9% yoy (vs. 2% expected). In the UK, the BOE’s credit conditions survey indicated that the availability of secured credit to households and credit to the corporate sector were unchanged in 1Q, with no change expected in 2Q. However, the availability of unsecured credit to households was reported to have tightened significantly in 1Q.

Looking at the day ahead, the final March inflation prints in Germany and Spain are due, along with the February trade balance reading for the Euro area. In the US we end the week with February JOLTS data and the preliminary April University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading. The Fed’s Rosengren and Bullard are also scheduled to speak in the afternoon. Away from this, the Summit of the Americans will also begin (through to April 14th) while US banks JP Morgan, Wells Fargo and Citigroup are due to report earnings.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed DOWN 21.06 POINTS OR 0.66%  /Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 22.90 POINTS OR 0.07%   / The Nikkei closed UP 118.46 POINTS OR 0.55%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .22% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.2805/Oil UP to 66.85 dollars per barrel for WTI and 71.70 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED IN THE GREEN    .   ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.2805 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.2760 /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING  MUCH STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE A FULL TRADE WAR IS BEGINNING/

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

North Korea/South Korea

 

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

end

c) REPORT ON CHINA/HONG KONG

A good report showing why Trump is underestimating the power behind the Petro Yuan scheme.  One of China’s weapons in fighting the tariffs is the new scheme which will cause the demand for dollars throughout the world to fall

(courtesy Palisade-Research.com)

Trump Is Underestimating The Petro-Yuan And China’s Weapons To Fight This Trade War

Via Palisade-Research.com,

I always ask myself one thing when looking at investments.

“Is this fragile, robust, or positioned to be anti-fragile? What’s my risk and reward?”

I use a top down approach to try and forecast longer term probabilities for success or failure. When measuring macro-situations, my analysts and I call this our Macro-Fragility Index (MFI).

And lately it’s buzzing that the U.S. is dangerously fragile…

Just last week, President Trump said in a radio interview that the U.S markets might be in for some “pain” because of the trade war with China.

But afterwards he said that in the long run, America will be better off (said by every protectionist – ever).

“We have to do things that other people wouldn’t do. So, we may take a hit, but you know what, ultimately, we’re going to be much stronger for it. . . It’s something we had to do…”

But the question is: how much pain can we expect, and from where?

After the Trump’s administration slapped trade tariffs targeting $50 billion on imports from China earlier this week – the Chinese fired back.

Less than 48 hours later, China announced a plan to impose 25% tariffs on $50 billion worth of US exports – 106 items like soybeans and chemicals will be affected.

The following day, Trump announced he’s looking at increasing tariffs from $50 billion to $100 billion. . .

Then, China stated they will retaliate tit-for-tat and at any cost, in this trade war.

We can expect Trump will do the same – as he’s already said he’s putting up with short term pain for long term gain.

So don’t be surprised if he doesn’t say anything to calm markets in the short run. . .

But there was one comment that no one else seems to be picking up on. If you read between the lines of what China said, it really got me worried. . .

China said that they will “firmly attack, using new comprehensive countermeasures, to firmly defend the interest of the nation and its people. . .”

What are these “new comprehensive countermeasures” that China is talking about?

For starters – they started threatening the US Dollar hegemony in the oil markets.

Many who know about the petro-dollar will tell you that this secretive agreement made in the 1970’s between Henry Kissinger and Saudi Arabia is what has secured the dollars reserve currency status.

The gist was that if any country wanted to buy oil from Saudi Arabia – which was then the worlds largest and cheapest oil producer – they would have to convert their local currencies into US Dollars. Otherwise they wouldn’t accept payment.

So if China wanted oil, they couldn’t buy Saudi oil with their Yuan. They would have to convert their Yuan on the Foreign Exchange market into dollars. Then they would be able to buy the oil from Saudi Arabia.

Hence how it got the name petro-dollar.

This deal by Kissinger and the Saudi Royal Family has been genius for the US…

It allowed the United States to always have constant global demand for their dollars.

And since major countries needed to have dollars on hand to buy oil every-day – they all kept ample dollar reserves.

Oh, and what did Saudi Arabia get out of all this? The U.S.’ assurance that their military will back and protect the Saudi Royal family.

And with the collapse of Iraq, Egypt, Libya, and Syria – we can see how well that has worked for them.

So it’s no surprise that to break free from the U.S. Dollar – China must establish their own oil market and payment system for it.

And this is exactly what they did recently when launching the Petro-Yuan. . .

This isn’t something that happened overnight. China has been quietly working their plan to rollback the United States grip on international trade foryears.

But in late March 2018, they finally went through with what many called a “conspiracy theory” and the first ever Yuan-backed crude oil contracts traded on the Shanghai stock exchange.

“China is the world’s largest oil importing/consuming nation. Gold-backed petro-yuan futures trading began Monday on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange, part of the Shanghai Futures Exchange – letting Chinese and foreign traders buy oil in yuan instead of dollars.“

In the first day of launching, demand was high.

By removing themselves from the grip of the petro-dollar, China just hedged themselves from any potential sanctions by the U.S. in the oil markets – just like they did to Russia, Iran, and Venezuala.

What other “comprehensive countermeasures” does China have to use against the U.S?

It doesn’t help that China is our largest foreign debt holder – totaling $1.2 Trillion.

This is by far their ‘nuclear’ option.

If China started dumping U.S. debt, that would be a catastrophe – for everyone, including China.

They know this – so it isn’t something they would do freely. But if they have to, they will.

If that nuclear option does happen, the U.S. Dollar would plummet.

So far over the last 15 months the USD has been in steady decline as economic problems mount. . .

President Trump is piling on massive debts and the U.S. is running huge deficits – this is the time where the Treasury needs someone to buy even more of their debt and bonds.

“Investors worry that if China purchases fewer Treasuries, the US government would have to find alternative buyers. That could prompt a rise in the rate of interest it pays and increase the cost of serving America’s vast national debt.”

Imagine if you are investing in a friend’s business. He plans to expand in the short run with much more debt with hopes to jump-start long term growth. But all of a sudden, he gets into a fight with his creditors and the bank who is financing his business.

It’s not a good idea for investors to be putting more money into a business that needs substantially more loans from the very person they’re fighting with. . .

China has that over the United States – it’s the ace up their sleeve.

All these quick-fired exchanges of tariffs and trade war escalations between the world’s two largest economies is unsettling.

Especially that both refuse to back down.

This has made the United States extremely fragile.

As an investor, you need to see these things from afar – have some imagination and independent thinking – and start positioning yourself properly.

The Petro-Yuan didn’t come up overnight and the talk of Trade War between the U.S. and China didn’t either.

Right now the market is volatile trying to decide how things are going to go.

I wrote an article earlier this week about using gold and gold mining equities as a portfolio tail-hedge – it’s a must read with how fragile things are.

Having gold right now in the portfolio will offset any losses from blowback of a trade war, a collapsing stock market, and a fragile U.S. economy.

There’s a reason China and Russia have been buying and mining huge amounts of gold.

There will be a lot of short term pain – and contrary to what Trump believes – no long term gain from this trade war. Especially with our largest foreign debt holder.

History tells us that much. . .

Don’t get caught off guard from China’s “comprehensive countermeasures.”

Just like China said, “We don’t want a trade war, but we are not afraid of one.“

END

Looks like a failure to communicate:  Trump plans on more tariffs on China as they confident threats are working.

(courtesy zerohedge)

White House Plans More Tariffs On China, Confident Threats Are Working

It appears that what we have here is another failure to communicate.

President Trump said this morning that China is negotiating with US over trade “very hard” and “very long.”

Which is odd, since Gao Feng, China’s commerce ministry spokesperson, complained President Donald Trump’s government has “shown no sincerity,” according to the official Xinhua News Agency, and said that the two sides have yet to start and trade negotiations.

However, despite China’s claims that negotiations are impossible under “unilateral coercion” by the United States, The Wall Street Journal reports  that the Trump White House, confident that its hard-line strategy is succeeding, is planning to ratchet up the pressure on China by focusing on new tariffs and threatening to block Chinese technology investment in the U.S., according to officials familiar with the strategy.

Administration officials familiar with the U.S. strategy say that the U.S. trade representative, as early as next week, will detail which products are on the list of $100 billion in Chinese goods subject to 25% import tariffs.

Ironically, US equity markets are poised back at the level reached right before Trump’s calls for $100 billion in tariffs…

Which perhaps gave The White House the confidence to push further?

Business groups in Washington, D.C., have been lobbying hard, telling the White House that tariffs are counterproductive. But administration officials have come to the opposite conclusion:  They believe the threats are working.

“China basically surrendered [with the Xi speech] and he [Trump] is probably going to put even more pressure on them before he accepts whatever their bottom line becomes,” said a person familiar with White House views.

Administration officials argue the Chinese are already bending to the U.S.’s will:

“It was the most conciliatory thing we’ve heard since the whole discussion began,” said a White House official. “Up to then, it was mean, nasty, cruel name-calling.”

WSJ notes that for its part, China is looking to line up other countries against the U.S., Chinese officials said – especially in Europe, whose companies could benefit should China react to the stepped up pressure by retaliating against the U.S. Beijing has already responded to early volleys from Washington in the trade conflict with retaliatory tariffs of its own.

But, U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross told reporters in Lima, Peru – on the sidelines of the Summit of the Americas – that with Cina trade talks:

“It’s not a question of fighting back. These are longstanding issues. We have taken action. They will take action. We will see how it ends. This is an administration you should judge by its end results, not by theories about what may be the results.”

And Ross shrugged off Chinese President Xi Jinping’s recent comments on trade

“We’ll see what he delivers. Hopefully he’ll make some of the moves that he’s been promising to do. About automotive and more imports. We need actions. Not just words.”

To try to limit domestic opposition to its tough line, WSJ notes that the administration now is working on a program, which could cost billions of dollars, to compensate farmers suffering from Chinese retaliatory tariffs on U.S. crops. Mr. Trump also said he would consider joining a reconstituted Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade group of 11 Pacific Rim nations, including Japan, which could give the U.S. additional leverage in any talks with China.

While markets seem ready to shrug off any looming trade war – which The Fed’s Kashkari called “enormously bad” for the US economy – it seems we are not even out of the first inning in this fight.

end

China escalates trade tensions by holding up the Bain/Qualcomm deal for Dutch semi conductor NXP

(courtesy zerohedge)

No “Surrender” – China Escalates Trade Tensions By “Delaying” Deal Reviews

Remember yesterday when The Trump administration confidently proclaimed victory in the US-China trade wars, explaining that they believe the threats are working.

“China basically surrendered [with the Xi speech] and he [Trump] is probably going to put even more pressure on them before he accepts whatever their bottom line becomes,” said a person familiar with White House views.

Administration officials argue the Chinese are already bending to the U.S.’s will:

“It was the most conciliatory thing we’ve heard since the whole discussion began,” said a White House official. “Up to then, it was mean, nasty, cruel name-calling.”

China vehemently denied this acquiescence and this morning have struck back, albeit subtley.

The Wall Street Journal reports that unidentified people familiar with the matter say that China is holding up deal reviews that could clear the way for U.S. companies Qualcomm and Bain Capital to make multi billion dollar acquisition of semiconductor companies.

The delay could end up quashing Qualcomm’s planned $44 billion acquisition of Dutch semiconductor company NXP Semiconductors NV, a deal widely seen as critical to Qualcomm’s future, according to one person familiar with the matter.

And both companies’ share prices are sliding…

WSJ notes that China is the only country that has not yet signed off on that deal, along with Toshiba Corp.’splanned $19 billion sale of its chip unit to a consortium led by U.S. private-equity firm Bain Capital. Neither deal is likely to move forward amid the looming trade war, the people said.

“The review process is basically on pause because of the trade tension,” a senior Toshiba official said. “We’ve been afraid of that.”

Stalling these deals is another possible leverage point for China as it seeks to fend off the Trump’s administration’s plans to impose tariffs on up to $150 billion in Chinese goods in response to what it says are unfair trade practices.

While markets had seemed ready to shrug off any looming trade war – which The Fed’s Kashkari called “enormously bad” for the US economy – it seems we are not even out of the first inning in this fight…

end

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Russia is learning from its key ally China in that they may halt the exports of Titanium and other rare earths to the USA. Russia is the world’s largest exporter of Titanium to both Boeing and European rival Airbus

(courtesy zerohedge)

Boeing Faces Backlash – Russia May Halt Titanium Exports To Plane-maker

Last week, we highlighted four ‘weapons’ that China has to counter US aggression  (dump US debt, devalue the yuan, attack the petro-dollar’s dominance, and limit sales of rare earth metals).

While China produces 92% of the world’s rare earth metals, Russia is also a key supplier.

And now it seems that Russia has been reading from the same playbook as RT reports Russia’s Federation Council is looking to adopt counter-sanctions against the US, under which the country may ban exports of titanium components to aircraft giant Boeing, according to Russian Senator Sergey Ryabukhin.

“Among the rare earth metals that Russia supplies to the United States is titanium, which is necessary for the technological cycle of production of Boeing,” Ryabukhin told RIA Novosti.

As of last year, 40 percent of Russian titanium aircraft parts were sold to Boeing and 60 percent to its European rival Airbus, according to a spokesman for Russia’s Rostec corporation.

Russia could also ban the supply of RD-180 engines used by NASA and the Pentagon, the senator added.

“These rocket engines are used not only by NASA, but also by the Pentagon on their satellites. It means the US uses these rocket engines to launch their military satellites,” he said.

Earlier on Friday, Russian deputies announced an upcoming response to the American sanctions imposed last week. According to State Duma Vice Speaker Ivan Melnikov, the Russian response would include ending cooperation with the US in the nuclear industry, aircraft building and airspace.

“Russia is able ‘to annoy’ the US by stopping or severely restricting cooperation in outer space, or by cutting supplies of components for Boeing aircraft, [and] close the supply of titanium,” said Petr Pushkarev, chief analyst of TeleTrade.

Russia may also limit the supply of drugs, tobacco and alcohol from the United States.

It seems the trade wars just went global.

END

THE FUN BEGINS (AND I BELIEVE THEM) THAT RUSSIA HAS IRREFUTABLE EVIDENCE THAT THE UK STAGED THE SYRIAN CHEMICAL ATTACK

(COURTESY ZEROHEDGE)

Russia Has “Irrefutable Evidence” UK Staged Syrian Chemical Attack

As the blame game over the alleged chemical attack in Syria escalates ahead of what is expected to be an imminent, if contained, air strike campaign by the US, UK and/or France against Syria, on Friday morning, Russia’s foreign minister Sergey Lavrov said Moscow had “irrefutable evidence” that the attack – which allegedly killed more than 40 people in an April 7 chemical weapons strike on the former rebel outpost of Douma  -was staged with the help of a foreign secret service.

“We have irrefutable evidence that this was another staged event, and that the secret services of a certain state that is now at the forefront of a Russophobic campaign was involved in this staged event,” he said during a press conference according to AFP.

Speculation that said “certain state” was the UK was confirmed shortly after, when Russia’s defense ministry alleged that Britain was involved in the suspected chemical attack. According to defense ministry spokesman, Major General Igor Konashenkov, the Kremlin has evidence that Britain was behind the attack.

Quoted by Reuters, he said: “We have… evidence that proves Britain was directly involved in organising this provocation.”

As RT further adds, the Russian Defense Ministry presented what it says is “proof that the reported chemical weapons attack in Syria was staged.”

It also accused the British government of pressuring the perpetrators to speed up the “provocation.” During a briefing on Friday, the ministry showed interviews with two people, who, it said, are medical professionals working in the only hospital operating in Douma, a town near the Syrian capital, Damascus.

In the interviews released to the media, the two men reported how footage was shot of people dousing each other with water and treating children, which was claimed to show the aftermath of the April 7 chemical weapons attack. The patients shown in the video suffered from smoke poisoning and the water was poured on them by their relatives after a false claim that chemical weapons were used, the ministry said.

“Please, notice. These people do not hide their names. These are not some faceless claims on the social media by anonymous activists. They took part in taking that footage,” said Konashenkov.

“The Russian Defense Ministry also has evidence that Britain had a direct involvement in arranging this provocation in Eastern Ghouta,” the general added, referring to the neighborhood of which Douma is part. “We know for certain that between April 3 and April 6 the so-called White Helmets were seriously pressured from London to speed up the provocation that they were preparing.”

According to Konashenkov, the group, which was a primary source of photos and footage of the purported chemical attack, was informed of a large-scale artillery attack on Damascus planned by the Islamist group Army of Islam, which controlled Douma at the time. The White Helmets were ordered to arrange the provocation after retaliatory strikes by the Syrian government forces, which the shelling was certain to lead to, he said.

One of the interviews published by the ministry showed a man who said his name was Halil Ajij, and who said he was a medical student working at Douma’s only operational hospital. This is how he described the origin of the footage:

“On April 8, a bomb hit a building. The upper floors were damaged and a fire broke at the lower floors. Victims of that bombing were brought to us. People from the upper floors had smoke poisoning. We treated them, based on their suffocation.”

Ajij said that a man unknown to him came and said there was a chemical attack and panic ensued. “Relatives of the victims started dousing each other with water. Other people, who didn’t seem to have medical training, started administering anti-asthma medicine to children. We didn’t see any patient with symptoms of a chemical weapons poisoning,” he said.

The first photos claiming to show the aftermath of the alleged chemical attack on April 7 were published online on the same day, and featured the bodies of many people, including children, some with foam around their mouths and noses. Footage from the hospital was released on Sunday, with the sources behind it claiming that it had been shot on Saturday.

Konashenkov said Russia hoped that international monitors from the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), which is due to investigate the circumstances of the incident, will help establish the truth. He added Eastern Ghouta is currently trying to return to peaceful life after being liberated from militant groups by Syrian government forces. He called on other nations and international organizations to provide humanitarian aid, which is badly needed in the area. Russia is already supplying food, medicine, building materials and other essential supplies to the neighborhood, he said.

Residents of the neighborhood, who previously fled violence, are returning to their homes now that the area is relatively safe, the Russian official said. The latest reports from the ground say about 63,000 people have returned, which is over half of the displaced residents, he added.

The reported chemical weapons attack escalated tensions over Syria, just as Damascus was about to seize full control of Eastern Ghouta. The US and allies such as the UK and France threatened military action in response to what they claim is an atrocity committed by the Syrian government. Russia insists the incident was staged and said it reserves the right to counter any attack on Syria.

* * *

On Wednesday, Russia made the first allegation that the chemical attack was staged by Western powers, in this case by the infamoous “white helmets,” a US-funded NGO lauded by mainstream media for their humanitarian work, while long-suspected of performing less-than humanitarian deeds behind the curtain.

Speaking with EuroNews, Russia’s ambassador to the EU, Vladimir Chizov, said “Russian military specialists have visited this region, walked on those streets, entered those houses, talked to local doctors and visited the only functioning hospital in Douma, including its basement where reportedly the mountains of corpses pile up. There was not a single corpse and even not a single person who came in for treatment after the attack.”

“But we’ve seen them on the video!” responds EuroNews correspondent Andrei Beketov. “There was no chemical attack in Douma, pure and simple,” responds Chizov. “We’ve seen another staged event. There are personnel, specifically trained – and you can guess by whom – amongst the so-called White Helmets, who were already caught in the act with staged videos.”

Russia said previously that it sent experts in radiological, chemical and biological warfare – along with medics, in order to inspect the Eastern Ghouta city of Douma where the attack is said to have taken place.

Russia’s Defense Ministry said in a statement that the experts “found no traces of the use of chemical agents,” following a search of the sites, adding “All these facts show… that no chemical weapons were used in the town of Douma, as it was claimed by the White Helmets.”

“All the accusations brought by the White Helmets, as well as their photos… allegedly showing the victims of the chemical attack, are nothing more than a yet another piece of fake news and an attempt to disrupt the ceasefire,” said the Russian Reconciliation Center.

* * *

In any case, if Russia indeed has “irrefutable evidence”, it is probably just a matter of time before it is made public in an attempt to sway public opinion, ideally before the Syrian airstrikes begin afresh. If confirmed, it would be a major slap in the face of neo-con forces across “western democracies”, if hardly a shock: after all the US using a fabricated pretext to wage war or simply to effect a much needed distraction from domestic affairs, in the middle east is a painfully familiar narrative.

Meanwhile, as we wait for Trump to announce what happens next, late on Thursday we reported that US National Security Advisor John Bolton and Defense Secretary James Mattis are reportedly feuding over the strategy in Syria, with Mattis favoring a more cautious approach, even as France and Britain are crafting broad strike plans and are willing to pursue any military strategy, even though as noted, a readout of a Thursday phone conversation President Trump and UK Prime Minister Theresa May suggests that military action may be days away, instead of hours.

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

7. OIL ISSUES

8. EMERGING MARKET

end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 am

Euro/USA 1.2316 DOWN .0013/ REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ SPAIN VS CATALONIA/REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:/TRUMP HEALTH CARE DEFEAT//ITALIAN REFERENDUM DEFEAT/AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA FALLING INTEREST RATES AGAIN/HOUSTON FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES ALL IN THE GREEN    

USA/JAPAN YEN 107.73 UP  0.473 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/SIGNALS U TURN WITH INCREASED NEGATIVITY IN NIRP/JAPAN OUT OF WEAPONS TO FIGHT ECONOMIC DISASTER/DEADLY UNWINDING OF YEN CARRY TRADE

GBP/USA 1.4262 UP .0023  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.2564 DOWN .0024 (CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 13 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.2280; / Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED DOWN 27.92 POINTS OR 0.87% /   Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 66.43 POINTS OR 0.43% /AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP .22% / EUROPEAN BOURSES  OPENED IN THE GREEN

The NIKKEI: this FRIDAY morning CLOSED UP 118.46 POINTS OR 0.55%

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED  IN THE GREEN

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / : Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 22.90 POINTS OR 0.07%  / SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 21.06 POINTS OR 0.66%   /

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP .22% 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 118.46 POINTS OR 0.55%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN 

Gold very early morning trading: 1335.60

silver:$16.49

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.8395% !!! UP 0  IN POINTS from THURSDAY night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/ 

The 30 yr bond yield 3.0439 UP 0  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early  FRIDAY morning: 89.84 UP 8  CENT(S) from THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.654% DOWN  5  in basis point(s) yield from THURSDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.0.038% UP 1/10    in basis points yield from THURSDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.238% DOWN 2  IN basis point yield from THURSDAY/

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.797  DOWN 2  POINTS in basis point yield from THURSDAY/

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 56 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:FALLS TO +.511%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY

END

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.2323 DOWN .0005 (Euro DOWN 5 Basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/

USA/Japan: 107.47 UP 0.217 Yen DOWN 22 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.4253 UP .0015( POUND UP 15 BASIS POINTS)

USA/Canada 1.2608 UP  .0020 Canadian dollar DOWN 20 Basis points AS OIL ROSE TO $67/62

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

This afternoon, the Euro was DOWN 5 to trade at 1.2323

The Yen FELL to 107.47 for a LOSS of 22 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE

The POUND ROSE BY 15 basis points, trading at 1.4253/

The Canadian dollar FELL by 20 basis points to 1.2608/ WITH WTI OIL RISING TO : $67.62

The USA/Yuan closed AT 6.2750
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.038%  UP 1/10   IN BASIS POINTS / yield/
Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 1 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 2.8230% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.0278  DOWN 2    in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index,89.84  UP 9 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 1:00 PM EST

London: CLOSED UP 6.22 POINTS OR 0.09%
German Dax :CLOSED UP 27.39 POINTS OR 0.22%
Paris Cac CLOSED UP 5.80  POINTS OR 0.11%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 20.30 POINTS OR 0.21%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 25.44 POINTS OR 0.11%

The Dow closed DOWN  122.91 POINTS OR 1.21%

NASDAQ DOWN   33.60 Points OR 1.01% 4.00 PM EST

WTI Oil price; 67.62 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 72.80 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE CROSS: 61.92 DOWN 4/100 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 4 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS TO +.511% FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:30 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:$67.30

BRENT: $72.44

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.8230%   THIS RAPID DECENT IN YIELD IS ALSO VERY DANGEROUS/RECESSION COMING

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.0294%/

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.2336 UP .0007  (UP 7 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:107.35 UP 0.092/ YEN DOWN 9 BASIS POINTS/ very dangerous as yen carry traders are getting killed/yen continues to rise despite the NYSE rising. however gold is now breaking away from yen influence.

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 89.75 UP 0 cent(s)/dangerous as the lower the dollar the higher the inflation.

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.4241: UP 0.0002  (FROM LAST NIGHT UP 2 POINTS)

Canadian dollar: 1.2599 DOWN 12 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: +0.511%


VOLATILITY INDEX:  17.37  CLOSED  DOWN  1.12

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.348%  ..LIBOR HAS INCREASED FOR 46 CONSECUTIVE DAYS. 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

Zuck, Xi, Mueller, & Missiles Spark Stock Slump, Bitcoin Jump, Bank & Boeing Dump

Thank fuck that’s over…

Take your pick of the headline chaos today – from China (delaying deals), Comey (book bullshit), Rosenstein (recusal and rumors of being fired), Mueller (no fucking idea), Syria (US moves another ship into Med, Syria threatens response), and Russia (proof UK was responsible for chemical attack); to Fed speakers (worried about the yield curve’s flattening) to slumping sentiment (UMIch tumbled most in 18 months) – and stocks slid after a strong week…

Futures markets show the dramatic swings more completely…NOTE The Dow and S&P closed back below the ledge from last week when Trump demanded $100bn in tariffs…

Stock tumbled late in the day today, but were duly rescued by the standard VIX crush into the close.. because why wouldn’t you dump protection ahead of a weekend loaded with the possibility of a Trump Tomahawk Tirade…

The Big Banks were ugly today after everyone proclaimed their earnings were awesome…

And The Small Banks continues to underperform along with the yield curve…

Boeing dumped after headlines on Russian retaliation…

On the bright side, pot stocks jumped…

Bonds and Stocks decoupled on the week…

Treasury yields were higher on the week but the long-end dramatically outperformed…

Which sent 2s30s curve to a new 11 year flat…its down 16bps since The Fed hiked rates…

And 2s10s is now holding well below 50bps…

The Dollar Index fell after two weeks of gains to its lowest weekly close in two months…

Of course it was a big week for the Ruble…

The Turkish Lira also crashed early in the week only to be rescued…

Cryptos had their best week in 4 months as it appears the tax overhang is lifting…Ripple was up 50% on the week!! (best since Dec 2017)

Most commodities managed to eke out gains on the week but WTI Crude soared to its highest since Dec 2014…

Finally, we note that it appears all the hype and hope in the survey data is starting to collapse back to reality…

END

Early morning trading:

(courtesy zerohedge)

Banks, Boeing Batter Stocks Into Red

It all looked so rosy before the open. Banks were up, Boeing was up, The Dow was up… but then humans read the real details under the bank earnings, finally read about Russian sanctions, and saw headlines suggesting China did not fold on Trade Wars…

Boeing is ugly…

Banks have all turned red…

And as goes Boeing, so goes The Dow… as Futures tumble back into the red…

 end
USA data this morning

Soft data University of Michigan consumer confidence tumbles the most in 18 months

(courtesy zerohedge)

UMich Consumer Confidence Tumbles Most In 18 Months

While UMich rose to a 14-year high in March, it was the “poor” that thrived while the “rich” were less confident. April’s preliminary print showed that weakness spreading as the headline sentiment index tumbled from 101.4 to 97.8 (missing 100.4 expectations).

Fewer households reported recent net income gains in early April than March (22%, down from 34%), but the median annual income increase consumers anticipated for the year ahead rose to 2.1%, up from1.7% in March and 1.6% last April

Surprisingly, all of the April gain was among Democrats and Independents.

Current conditions and Future expectations both fell…

Uncertainty surrounding the evolving trade policy has caused many small (and at times inconsistent) changes in expectations. Spontaneous references to trade policies were made by 29% of all consumers in early April, with nearly all the mentions negative (27% out of 29%).

Negative economic developments were reported more frequently than positive economic changes for the first time since last July. Negative economic news was cited by 66% in early April, up from 55% last month and 45% in January.

This drop is the biggest since Oct 2016 (before Trump’s election)…

Both short- and medium-term inflation expectations fell (medium-term back down to 2.4%, near its record low).

end

The job scene seems to be normalizing to the downside with job openings tumbling as well as a drop in hirings.  The quits section rose a bit.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Job Openings Tumble By 176,000, Led By Food Service And Construction Workers

One month after the BLS reported that according to last month’s JOLTS survey, the number of job openings soared from 5.667 million, a six-month low which spooked analysts into wondering if the labor market is peaking, to 6.312 million, a 645,000 monthly increase and the second biggest monthly jump on record, the latest, just released JOLTS report predictably showed a sharp contraction, as the number of job openings dropped from a downward revised 6.228 million to 6.024 million, a drop of 176K, as the series becomes increasingly volatile.

The job openings rate dropped from 4% to 3.9%, while the number of job openings edged down for total
private and was little changed for government. Job openings increased in a handful of industries, including finance and insurance (+69,000) and state and local government education (+31,000); openings decreased in a greater number of industries with the largest decreases being in accommodation and food services (-91,000), construction (-56,000), and wholesale trade (-38,000). The number of job openings decreased most in the West region.

It wasn’t just job openings that dropped: total hires declined as well, sliding from a revised 5.574 million in January to 5.507 million in February, still just shy of the highest print on record which was last October’s 5.609 million.  The
number of hires was little changed for total private and for government. Hires decreased in educational services (-48,000). The number of hires was little changed in all four regions.

Meanwhile, the other closely watched category, the level of quits – which indicates workers’ confidence they can leverage their existing skills and find a better paying job, also known as the “take this job and shove it” indicator- reversed last month’s decrease and in february rose modestly from 3.191MM to 3.210MM, suggesting workers were feeling just a more less confident about demand for their job skills than the previous month. t. Quits decreased in other services (-41,000). The number of quits was little changed in all four regions

And with a total 5.2 million separations (a 3.5% rate), this means that there were 1.6 million layoffs and discharges in February, virtually unchanged from January. The layoffs and discharges rate was 1.1 percent in February. The number of layoffs and discharges decreased in state and local government education (-13,000). The number of layoffs and discharges decreased in the Northeast region.

Putting all this in in context

  • Job openings have increased since a low in July 2009. They returned to the prerecession level in March 2014 and surpassed the prerecession peak in August 2014. There were 6.1 million open jobs on the last business day of February 2018.
  • Hires have increased since a low in June 2009 and have surpassed prerecession levels. In February 2018, there were 5.5 million hires.
  • Quits have increased since a low in September 2009 and have surpassed prerecession levels. In February 2018, there were 3.2 million quits.
  • For most of JOLTS history, the number of hires (measured throughout the month) has exceeded the number of job openings (measured only on the last business day of the month). Since January 2015, however, this relationship has reversed with job openings outnumbering hires in most months.
  • At the end of the most recent recession in June 2009, there were 1.2 million more hires throughout the month than there were job openings on the last business day of the month. In February 2018, there were 545,000 fewer hires than job openings.

Finally, the infamously broken Beveridge Curve (job openings rate vs unemployment rate), continues to gradually normalize after a nearly decade-long “drift” from its conventional pattern.  From the start of the most recent recession in December 2007 through the end of 2009, the series trended lower and further to the right as the job openings rate declined and the unemployment rate rose. In February 2018, the unemployment rate was 4.1 percent and the job openings rate was 3.9 percent.

end
Interesting;  Chapter 11 bankruptcies spike a huge 63% from a year ago(courtesy Wolf Richter/WolfStreet)

Chap. 11 Bankruptcies Spike 63% From Year Ago

Authored by Wolf Richter via WolfStreet.com,

Highest level since April 2011. It’s not just the Brick & Mortar Meltdown anymore.

New Chapter 11 bankruptcies in the US spiked 63% year-over-year in March to 770 filings, the highest number of filings for any month since April 2011 (when there had been 789 filings as companies were still trying to emerge from the Great Recession).

This chart shows Chapter 11 filings back to 2011, based on data from the American Bankruptcy Institute. The last six Marches are marked with red dots. The year-over-year jump of 299 filings in March is the second largest year-over-year jump for any month since the Great Recession. It is behind only the jump of 366 filings last December, which had set a post-recession record. The yellow dots represent the last six Decembers (more on that in a moment):

A company files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection from creditors in order to try to restructure its debts under the supervision of a judge. This normally involves are large reduction in debt and the transfers of part or all of the ownership of the company from pre-bankruptcy owners (shareholders) to creditors. Most often, shareholders lose everything. Some unsecured creditors too lose everything. Secured creditors are often made whole. And many creditors in between get a haircut, in return for some ownership. The hope is that the company can “emerge” from bankruptcy with less debt and keep operating.

Bankruptcy filings are seasonal and usually peak in April, along with tax season. So the March jump doesn’t augur well for April.

The low points in Chapter 11 filings normally occur late in the year, before or in December, except last December when filings spiked 61% from November, to the highest level for any month since April 2013. In March, it got worse when Chapter 11 filings spiked to the highest level for any month since April 2011.

While the December 2017 spike was truly special, in January and February, filings were close to where they’d been a year ago, and I thought, OK, maybe December was just a blip. But now there’s the March spike, the second highest spike since the end of the Great Recession.

The chart below shows the year-over-year change in Chapter 11 filings. This eliminates the effects of seasonality. Red bars indicate that filings rose from a year ago. Blue bars indicate that filings fell from a year ago. Note the effects of the oil-and-gas bust in 2015 and 2016 and more recently the effects of the brick-and-mortar meltdown; but now it’s not just the brick-and-mortar meltdown anymore:

Monthly Chapter 11 filings are volatile. To smoothen out the volatility and eliminate the effects of seasonality we can look at the year-over-year changes as a three-month rolling average. For example, the three-month average year-over-year change for March is based on January, February, and March. And then the image becomes clear: There is a problem, and it’s not a blip:

The by now well-documented Brick-and-Mortar retail meltdown is responsible for part of it. Retailer bankruptcies of all sizes have been piling up in large numbers since 2016. They all started out as Chapter 11 filings, though many of them later turn into messy liquidations, like Toys ‘R’ Us.

Back on January 8, when I discussed the horrendous spike in Chapter 11 filings in December, I figured that there must have been another cause. The economy is doing OK. In Q4, it was stronger than it had been in prior years, when bankruptcies were much lower. And retailer bankruptcies alone wouldn’t cause that kind of spike. I speculated that that the advent of the new tax law had a lot to do with it.

Creditors and shareholders of failing companies knew that they could write off losses in 2017 under the old corporate tax rate of 35%, thus getting the government to pick up 35% of the tab of their losses via lower taxes. In 2018, the new tax law adds uncertainties, but shareholders and creditors knew that losses incurred in 2018 would face the new corporate tax rate of 21%, and so the government would only pick up 21% of the losses.

But in March, this logic no longer applies. So it looks like the December spike was a mix of tax consideration and a sharply deteriorating credit environment for companies.

This is a sign that the economy has arrived at the end of the “credit cycle.” The Fed is trying to push up interest rates and tighten financial conditions. Weak companies are starting to have a harder time refinancing their debts. And those that succeed face higher borrowing costs. Some sectors are getting hit harder than others, such as brick-and-mortar retail, which had a terrible March. But this is now spreading in other sectors, such as specialized subprime auto lenders.

Subprime auto-loan delinquencies have surged to the highest rate since October 1996. Scores of smaller specialized lenders have piled into this field after the Financial Crisis, some of them backed by private equity firms. Three of them have now collapsed into bankruptcy or were shut down. Allegations of fraud and misrepresentations are swirling through the bankruptcy filings. Read…  Subprime Carmageddon: Specialized Lenders Begin to Collapse

END

A must read…the truth what is going on inside Syria especially Douma

(courtesy David Stockman/ContraCorner)

The Deep State Closes In On The Donald, Part 1

Authored by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog,

Perhaps we have missed something: Like the possibility that the canyons of Wall Street are actually located on another planet several light years from earth!

Otherwise, how can you explain the equipoise of a stock market sitting at the tippy-top of a nine-year bubble expansion and confronted with the potential outbreak of World War Three?

Folks, like some alien abductors, the Deep State has taken the Donald hostage, and with ball-and-chain finality. Whatever pre-election predilection he had to challenge the Warfare State has apparently been completely liquidated.

Trump’s early AM tweet yesterday, in fact, embodies the words of a man who had more than a few screws loose when he took the oath, but under the relentless pounding of the Imperial City’s investigators, partisans, apparatchiks and lynch-mob media has now gone stark raving mad. To wit:

“….Russia vows to shoot down any and all missiles fired at Syria. Get ready Russia, because they will be coming, nice and new and “smart!” You shouldn’t be partners with a Gas Killing Animal who kills his people and enjoys it!

Yes, maybe Wall Street has figured out that the Donald is more bluster than bite. Yet when you consider the broader context and what the Russian side is now saying, it is just plain idiotic to own the S&P 500 at 24X. After all, earnings that have been going nowhere for the past three years (earnings per share have inched-up from $106 in September 2014 to $109 in December 2017), and now could be ambushed by a hot war accident in Syria that would rapidly escalate.

Indeed, did the robo-machines and boys and girls down in the casino not ponder the meaning of this message from the Kremlin? It does not leave much to the imagination:

#Russian ambassador in beirut : “If there is a strike by the Americans on #Syria , then… the missiles will be downed and even the sources from which the missiles were fired,” Zasypkin told Hezbollah’s al-Manar TV, speaking in Arabic.

Sure, the odds are quite high that the clever folks in the Pentagon will figure out how to keep the pending attack reasonably antiseptic. That is, they will bomb a whole bunch of places in Syria where the Russians and Iranians are not (after being warned); and also deploy stand-off submarine platforms to launch cruise missiles and high-flying stealth aircraft to drop smart bombs, thereby keeping American pilots and ships out of harm’s way.

Then, after unleashing the Donald’s version of “shock and awe” they will claim that Assad has just received the spanking of his life and that the Russians and Iranians have been messaged with malice aforethought.

But our point is not that Douma is Sarajevo, and, besides, this is still April, not August. What should be scaring the daylights out of Wall Street is that we are even at the point where the two tweets quoted above are happening.

For crying out loud, there is a brutal, bloody and barbaric civil war raging in Syria where both sides are bedecked in black hats; both sides have committed unspeakable atrocities; and where it is a documented fact that the rebels possess chemical weapons and have launched false flag gas attacks in the past—even as 1,300 tons of Assad’s inventory, which may or may not have been the totality of it, was destroyed according to the certification of the Organization for the Prevention of Chemical Weapons (OPCW).

In that context, who can tell whether the alleged chlorine gas release last Saturday in Douma originated in a bomb dropped by Assad’s air force or came from a rebel stockpile that was hit by a bomb? Or whether it was another deliberate false flag attack staged by the jihadists or perhaps that it never happened at all.

The evidence comes mainly from rebel forces opposed to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. One of these was the Violations Documentation Center, a virulent anti-Russian organization funded by George Soros. Another was the White Helmets, a completely comprised operation financed by the US and UK and which has operated only in rebel held territories— often check-by-jowl with the al-Nusra Front and other terrorist elements.

Indeed, Washington’s fabled spies in the sky and taps on every node of the worldwide web can read your email and spot a rogue camel caravan anywhere in a Sahara sandstorm. But they can not tell whether dead bodies are the victims of bullets, bombs, collapsing buildings or chlorine gas. You need to be on the ground and perform chemical tests for that, and Washington just plain isn’t there.

Besides, even if a careful investigation–like the one proposed by Sweden and which the US and UK vetoed at the UN—were actually completed, why is it Washington’s prerogative to administer a spanking to the culprit?

For one thing, if you are in the spanking business owing to bad behavior, then just within the region you would also need to administer the rod to al-Sisi in Egypt and Erdogan in Turkey; and also to Washington’s on and off wards in Baghdad and to the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia for his genocidal attacks on Yemen. While you were at it, why would even Bibi Netanyahu be spared the birch—given his periodic “lawn mowing” exercises on the Gaza strip?

The point is, Assad has never attacked, threatened or even looked cross-eyed at the United States. So you would have thought that administering spankings to international malefactors is the business of Washington’s permanent War Party, not the leader of America First.

To be sure, the only evidence we have to date is the gruesome images posted on the internet by the “Douma Revolution”, which we don’t credit because it is a tool of the good folks of Jaish al-Islam (Army of Islam), who were holding 3,200 pro-Assad hostages in cages when the attack happened. But even if Assad is culpable, why is the Donald getting out the birch switch if he doesn’t mean to effectuate regime change?

Yes, inconstancy is his middle name. But how in god’s name could even the Donald have rearranged the modest amount of  gray matter under his great Orange Comb-Over so quickly and completely with regards to Syria?

As a reminder, this is what the Donald said just last week:

“We’ll be coming out of Syria, like, very soon,” Trump said on Thursday, “Let the other people take care of it now. Very soon, very soon, we’re coming out….We’re going to get back to our country, where we belong, where we want to be.”

The fact is, it’s way too late to drag Bashar Assad behind the Moammar Khadafy Memorial Jeep to be ritually sodomized by his enemies. That’s because he’s already won the civil war (red area in map below).

What’s left is not remotely conducive to regime change because the majority Arab population of Syria (regardless of Alawite, Shiite, Sunni, Christian, Druse etc. religious affiliation) would never consent to be ruled by the small minority of Kurds (who control the yellow, largely desert areas). And besides, a Kurdish Syrian state in part or whole would guarantee a Turkish invasion and a blue (Turkish controlled areas surrounding Afrin in the northwest) versus yellow war where Washington would be on both sides.

Indeed, the only thing that a regime change attempt at this late date would accomplish is a resurrection of the remnants of ISIL (small black specs) or an upwelling of chaos from the three or four islets (green areas) that warring gangs of rebels, jihadists, salafists and blood-thirsty warlords now nominally control.

So the map below, in fact, tells you what is really going on. To wit, the neocons and deep staters around Trump–with the Walrus Mouth (Bolton) now literally shouting in his ear—-are really about picking a fight with Iran and Russia. These are really Imperial Washington’s designated enemies, and the purpose of the impending attack on Syrian military installations is to intimidate them into backing down—-even as they issue hostile warnings and rhetorical fulminations (especially the Iranians) against America.

Stated differently, the Orange Comb-Over is being lured not so much into an Assad spanking exercise or regime change maneuver as into a Proxy War with Iran and Russia. The latter is literally manna from heaven for the Warfare State.

Indeed, with the defense budget already cranked up to the absurd level of $720 billion, the Deep State and its military/industrial/surveillance/congressional complex allies would like nothing better than maximum rhetorical belligerence (and occasional provocative acts) from Russia and Iran in order to keep the national security gravy train inflating toward the $1 trillion funding mark.

Needless to say, the contractual droppings from these staggering budget levels will keep the beltway think tanks, NGOs and pro-war lobbying apparatus in clover for years to come, thereby fueling the ugly secret of Imperial Washington.

Namely, since America lost its only real enemy in 1991, Washington has become an unhinged war capital. It is now endangering the entire planet in a doom-loop of expanding military muscle, multiplying foreign interventions and occupations, intensifying blowback from the victims of Washington’s aggression and an ever greater chorus of Empire justifying experts, apparatchiks and politicians getting fat on the banks of the Potomac.

Nevertheless, the extent of the Donald’s capture by the Deep State and its partisan auxiliaries could not be more dramatically evident than in the last seven days of events in Eastern Ghouta.

As shown in the map below, after a bloody two-month long campaign the Syrian Army—-backed by the Russian Air Force—had captured most of the rebel strongholds in the Eastern Ghouta district outside of Damascus. And that meant that the civil war was tantamount to over because what remained of the armed opposition could no longer rain artillery attacks and guerrilla assaults down on the Assad government in its own backyard.

After the renewed government offensive in February, Eastern Ghouta had been split into three pockets of resistance.

The rebel groups in two of these pockets had finally capitulated after punishing battles that caused upwards of 1,200 military and civilian casualties on both sides. Under terms of the rebel/government negotiated deals, however, opposition fighters and their families were evacuated in buses to rebel-held territory in the northern Syrian province of Idlib (green area in the map above).

Only the small enclave of Douma (dark pink in the map below) held out because the Salafist fighters from the “Army of Islam” (Jaish al-Islam) refused to surrender.

By April 5, however, the situation had deteriorated so badly inside Douma that this last cohort of rebel fighters also agreed to negotiations. This too was supposed to end in a convoy of evacuation buses heading north, but the discussions had broke down when, according to some reports, the rebel negotiators were recalled and executed by a faction that wished to keep fighting.

So last Friday, the Syrian military resumed its offensive and the purported gas attack occurred the next day, when it appears that it was all over except the shouting.

We will leave for others to explain the unexplainable. To wit, why in the world would Bashar Assad, who was on the verge of a complete victory over the last redoubt of rebel enemies that could threaten his regime, use chemical weapons on civilians and children when all except a few hard-core fighters had already agreed to get on buses and evacuate Douma entirely?

Yet here is the even more unexplainable part of this sorry episode that amounts to the Deep State waging the Donald. The remaining rebels capitulated on Sunday and the government re-upped the evacuation deal. That is, the remnants of Jaish al-Islam are now all dead or have boarded busses–along with their families—and are already in Idlib province.

That’s right. There is no opposition left in Douma and it has been liberated by the Syrian army, including release of the 3,200 pro-government hostages who had been paraded around the town in cages by the Saudi Arabia funded warriors of Islam who had terrorized it.

According to the Syrian government, no traces of chemicals or even bodies have been found. They could be lying, of course, but with the OPCW investigators on the way to Douma who in their right mind would not wait for an assessment of what actually happened last Saturday?

That is, if you are not caught up in the anti-Russian hysteria that has engulfed official Washington and the mainstream media. Indeed, the Syrian government has now even welcomed the international community to come to Douma, where the Russians claim there is  absolutely nothing to see:

Speaking with EuroNews, Russia’s ambassador to the EU, Vladimir Chizov, said “Russian military specialists have visited this region, walked on those streets, entered those houses, talked to local doctors and visited the only functioning hospital in Douma, including its basement where reportedly the mountains of corpses pile up. There was not a single corpse and even not a single person who came in for treatment after the attack.”

“But we’ve seen them on the video!” responds EuroNews correspondent Andrei Beketov.

“There was no chemical attack in Douma, pure and simple,” responds Chizov. “We’ve seen another staged event. There are personnel, specifically trained – and you can guess by whom – amongst the so-called White Helmets, who were already caught in the act with staged videos.”

In short, if they are lying, it would not be hard to ascertain. Presumably, the Donald could even send Jared Kushner–flack jacket and all—to investigate what actually happened at Douma.

Alas, the Donald has apparently opted for war instead in a desperate maneuver to keep the Deep State at bay.

Either way, we think he’s about done, and in Part 2 we will explore why what’s about to happen next should be known to the history books, if there are any, as “Mueller’s War”.

END

Another good one from Meijer on the absurdity of what is going on in Syria.  Trump will be firing missiles at a decrepit Syrian infrastructure

(courtesy Raul Meijer)

Hot War, Cold Markets

Authored by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog,

This is turning into a comedy. A black comedy, for sure, but still. As both the Skripal novichok ‘poisoning’ case in Britain and the ‘chemical attack’ in Douma, Syria fall flat on their faces on a total and absolute lack of evidence, it’s becoming clear that western ‘authorities’ are not at all planning to let go of the privilege that in times gone by allowed them to claim whatever they wanted and demand to be believed.

And despite the insane amounts of spying that underlies their business models and will lead to their demise(s), here is where social media do play a decisive role. See, if you’re an ‘authority’, there’s nothing you would rather do than to close down those social media that let people spread news that contradicts and/or doubts what you just said, and undermines that privilege. But that also would mean you can’t spy on them anymore through social media. A toss-up?!

Whatever the outcome will be, it’s obvious that Donald Trump is having war talks with his military and closest advisers. And they can basically tell him anything, he’s not a military man. Which is fine, Lincoln wasn’t either. But it does mean he’s vulnerable to narratives and briefings that are simply not true. Lincoln went to great lengths to surround himself with people who he could trust.

What about Trump? Does he know that, as Paul Craig Roberts said on Twitter yesterday ..

The Russians know that they can, at will within a few minutes, sink the entire US fleet, destroy every US airplane & ship in the ME & within range of the ME, completely destroy all of Israel’s military capability & wipe out the military of the two-bit punk state of Saudi Arabia.

.. or do they keep that from him? Because if he did know, why have this entire circus going on? Why did the King of Twitter yesterday threaten with his new and shiny toys and then today switch to:

Never said when an attack on Syria would take place. Could be very soon or not so soon at all! In any event, the United States, under my Administration, has done a great job of ridding the region of ISIS. Where is our “Thank you America?”

We already knew that US military won’t be ready for another 10 days or so for an attack on Syrian targets.So that makes sense. It takes the surprise factor out of the game, but nobody seems to want to surprise anyone much anyway. Syrian and Russian military are already way out of the way, and left the most decrepit infrastructure behind for the coalition of the willing (no Germany, Canada) to waste their firepower on.

But does Trump really want to start shooting anything? Certainly only if he knows he will win. And that, he doesn’t. And there’s something else. he’s not only talking to his military people, he’s got a financial/economic team as well. What will the financial effects of a military action be? That might give him some pause. And his military guys can’t fill him in on that.

Can Trump risk imploding the ‘markets’? They’re not actually markets anymore, and that makes them much less predictable.

As Bill Holter says talking to Greg Hunter: It’s Pure Math – We’re Headed for a Train Wreck

Holter also points out the explosion of global debt. Holter charges, “It’s now $237 trillion. The amount of debt grew by $21 trillion globally over the last 12 months. That’s roughly 10 %. How much did global GDP grow? 2% or 3%, I mean that is totally unsustainable.” The biggest worry for Holter right now is escalating military action in Syria. Holter warns, “This is so, so dangerous. Obviously, you worry about a hot war because with the weapons you have today, you could have WWIII start in a heartbeat. But look at the market today. It’s up 400 or 500 points. You have talk of trade wars. You have talk of hot wars. It’s amazing the markets can hold together and ignore potential annihilation.”

David Stockman has something very similar: The Deep State Closes In On The Donald, Part 1

Yes, maybe Wall Street has figured out that the Donald is more bluster than bite. Yet when you consider the broader context and what the Russian side is now saying, it is just plain idiotic to own the S&P 500 at 24X. After all, earnings that have been going nowhere for the past three years (earnings per share have inched-up from $106 in September 2014 to $109 in December 2017), and now could be ambushed by a hot war accident in Syria that would rapidly escalate.

Indeed, did the robo-machines and boys and girls down in the casino not ponder the meaning of this message from the Kremlin? It does not leave much to the imagination: #Russian ambassador in Beirut : “If there is a strike by the Americans on #Syria , then… the missiles will be downed and even the sources from which the missiles were fired..”

Trump would be much more likely to fire away if he thought he would win. And even then. Even if he could win, the whole situation is replete with unknown unknowns. If god forbid the thing escalates and the US and Russia end up facing each other, what will China do? Don’t forget that Beijing and the PBOC play an instrumental part in propping up the world economy, and the S&P 500.

It wouldn’t be hard for Xi to pull that carpet out from under Trump’s feet; it would be costly for China too, but if war were the reality, the rules and priorities change. And you can bet Xi and his people have run through the kinds of scenarios many many times. They’re prepared to “withdraw upon themselves”.

As for the US, the ‘markets are holding on to crazy levels so far despite the threat that hangs in the air, but once the first rockets fly, and gold and bitcoin -oil?- are still available, why hold on to stocks?

It’s the insanity of the so-called markets that makes them so vulnerable and unpredictable. And starting a war on very shaky grounds increases that unpredictability by a factor of 10 or so. And the MSM may -well, there’s no doubt- still fill their role as cheerleaders the way they used to, but social media are a different story.

And besides, which investors are going to say, hell, I feel so patriotic, I’m going to hold on to stocks that have been onvervalued for years already, just to support Bolton and McCain and Tony Blair and Boris Johnson’s fantasies? Who would do that who understands that it is at least quite possible that Russia has the better weapons today? Or that perhaps this kind of conflict is simply not winnable anymore?!

I don’t think there’ll be many. Nor do I think Trump wants to be known as the man who collapsed the S&P 500. So, abandoned buildings in the desert it is. And lots of CNN. Anderson Cooper’s your MC.

end

Sec. of State to be Mike Pompeo already admits that Americans have killed a couple hundred Russians in Syria

(courtesy zerohedge)

Pompeo Admits America’s Already Killed “A Couple Hundred” Russians In Syria

Is it any wonder that US-Russia relations are, reportedly, as their lowest in decades?

Despite being a ‘puppet of Putin’, President Trump’s administration has killed hundreds of Russians in Syria.

Amid his confirmation hearing with the Senate Foreign Relations Committee yesterday, The Wall Street Journal reports that Central Intelligence Agency Director Mike Pompeo said Thursday that “a couple hundred Russians” were killed in Syria by U.S. warplanes after Syrian fighters backed by Washington came under attack in February.

The episode reportedly  took place on Feb. 7 and Feb. 8, when Russian mercenaries mounted an attack using tanks and artillery in an apparent attempt to take an oil-rich area in the eastern Syria province of Deir Ezzour. Fighters from the Syrian Democratic Forces, organized by the U.S. to fight Islamic State, came under fire and American air power was called in.

The Russian mercenaries were part of private military group known as the Wagner Group, which is run by a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The Kremlin has played down the episode, and the Pentagon has been reluctant to say how many Russians might have been killed and what relation the mercenaries had to the Kremlin.

Instead, the Pentagon talked about a clash involving “pro-regime” forces.

Notably, WSJ reports that during hours of testimony, Mr. Pompeo sought to distance himself from some of the more assertive comments he had issued as a lawmaker, insisting that he favored strong diplomacy over preemptive military strikes and was more interested in negotiating than encouraging regime change.

Mr. Pompeo bristlled at suggestions that he was a “hawk,” arguing that as a former Army officer who served in the 1991 Persian Gulf War he knew the horrors of combat.

“There’s no one like someone who’s served in uniform who understands the value of diplomacy and the terror and tragedy that is war,” he said.

Let’s hope – for the sake of many – that those comments were not just placating talk.

end

A second USA tomahawk capable destroyer enters the Mediterranean

(courtesy zerohedge)

A Second US Tomahawk-Capable Destroyer Enters The Mediterranean

Just days after the US deployed its Truman Carrier Strike Group (and 7 warships) to The Mediterranean, The Pentagon reports that
the guided-missile destroyer USS Winston Churchill entered the Navy’s area of operations that includes the Mediterranean as tensions remains high over a possible military strike against Syria.

The Winston S. Churchill departed Naval Station Norfolk April 5, 2018, for what The Pentagon stresses was “a routine deployment.”

The destroyer, which can carry up to 90 Tomahawk missiles, is in the region “to conduct a routine deployment in support of U.S. maritime security interests, increased regional stability and forward naval presence in the U.S. 6th fleet area of operations,” according to a statement by U.S. Naval Forces Europe-Africa

This is the second Tomahawk-capable destroyer to enter The Med (along with the USS Donald Cook which can carry 60 Tomahawk missiles).

As we noted previously, it will take approximately 6-7 days for the Truman Carrier group to cross the Atlantic at 30 knots, plus another 3-4 three days once it arrives in the Mediterranean, to reach Syria, suggesting a full-blown on attack may not take place until after April 22 or so.

The Med is going to get very crowded soon with the Winston Churchill joining the Donald Cook and soon to be joined by the entire Truman Carrier Strike Group… all facing up with at least 11 Russian warships out of Tartus, Syria.

Notably, Agence France Presse reports that Syria has warned the West that it will defend itself if attacked.

end

Trump begins his showdown with Amazon as he unveils a Postal Service Task force.  This comes on the heels of Bezos launching a “shipping with Amazon” program

(courtesy zerohedge)

In Showdown, Trump Abruptly Unveils Postal Service Task Force As Bezos Launches “Shipping With Amazon”

Following on from his caustic comments towards Jeff Bezos’ company:

“Amazon costing the United States Post Office massive amounts of money for being their Delivery Boy. Amazon should pay these costs (plus) and not have them bourne by the American Taxpayer. “

As The New York Times reports, Postal Service experts and even Mr. Trump’s own advisers have privately urged him to back off the accusations, noting that the huge number of packages shipped by Amazon is actually helping to keep the Postal Service financial solvent.

But the president has refused to believe those arguments, insisting in a tweet as recently as March 31 that “the U.S. Post Office will lose $1.50 on average for each package it delivers for Amazon. That amounts to Billions of Dollars.”

And so, President Trump has unveiled (at 9pm on a Thursday night) an executive order (below) creating a task force on the US Postal System to examine the service’s “unsustainable financial path” and directed the new group to “conduct a thorough evaluation of the operations and finances of the USPS,” and took a direct shot across Amazon’s bow: “Evaluating… the expansion and pricing of the package delivery market.”

But, just as The White House released the text of the Executive Order, Bloomberg reports that Jeff Bezos is preparing to launch “Shipping with Amazon” to disrupt the shipping industry…

TicToc by Bloomberg

✔@tictoc

Amazon is getting ready to launch “Shipping with Amazon” which may be a major disruption to the current shipping industry. Insights via @CMEGroup

We call it a tie… for now… as the Billionaires battle it out.

*  *  *

Full Executive Order:

THE WHITE HOUSE

Office of the Press Secretary

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

April 12, 2018

EXECUTIVE ORDER

– – – – – – –

TASK FORCE ON THE UNITED STATES POSTAL SYSTEM

By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the UnitedStates of America, Ihereby order the following:

_Section_ _ 1_. _Policy_. (a) The UnitedStates Postal Service (USPS) accounts for almost half of global mail volume and is regularly cited as the Federal agency with the highest public approval rating. However, a number of factors, including the steep decline in First-Class Mail volume, coupled with legal mandates that compel the USPS to incur substantial and inflexible costs, have resulted in a structural deficit* *where revenues are no longer sufficient to fund the pension liabilities and retiree health obligations owed to current employees. The USPS is on an unsustainable financial path and must be restructured to prevent a taxpayer-funded bailout. This finding is supported by the following considerations, among others:

(i) the USPS has incurred $65billion of cumulative losses since the 2007-2009 recession;

(ii) the USPS has been unable to make payments required by law for its retiree health benefit obligations, which totaled more than $38billion at the end of fiscal year2017; and

(iii) the Government Accountability Office has had the USPS on its high-risk list since 2009 because of a serious financial situation that puts the USPS mission of providing prompt, reliable, and efficient universal mail services at risk.

(b) It shall be the policy of my Administration that the UnitedStates postal system operate under a sustainable business model to provide necessary mail services to citizens and businesses, and to compete fairly in commercial markets.

_Sec_. _ 2_. _Establishment_. (a) There is hereby established a Task Force on the UnitedStates Postal Service (Task Force), to be chaired by the Secretary of the Treasury, as Secretary and as Chairman of the Federal Financing Bank, or his designee, to evaluate the operations and finances of the USPS. In addition to the Chair of the Task Force (Chair), the Task Force shall be composed of the following department and agency heads, or their designees:

(i) the Director of the Office of Management and Budget;

(ii) the Director of the Office of Personnel Management; and

(iii) any other department and agency head the Chair may designate.

(b) The Task Force shall consult with the Postmaster General and the Chairman of the Postal Regulatory Commission.

(c) The Task Force shall also engage:

(i) the Attorney General, on issues relating to government monopolies operating in the commercial marketplace;

(ii) the Secretary of Labor, on issues related to workers compensation programs; and

(iii) State, local, and tribal officials as determined by the Chair of the Task Force with input from the Task Force members.

(d) The Task Force shall meet as required by the Chair and, unless extended by the Chair, shall be dissolved once it has accomplished the objectives set forth in sections3 and 4, as determined by the Chair, and completed the report described in section5 of this order.

_Sec_. _ 3_. _Evaluation_. The Task Force shall conduct a thorough evaluation of the operations and finances of the USPS, including:

(i) the expansion and pricing of the package delivery market and the USPS’s role in competitive markets;

(ii) the decline in mail volume and its implications for USPS self-financing and the USPS monopoly over letter delivery and mailboxes;

(iii) the definition of the “universal service obligation” in light of changes in technology, ecommerce, marketing practices, and customer needs;

(iv) the USPS role in the U.S. economy and in rural areas, communities, and small towns; and

(v) the state of the USPS business model, workforce, operations, costs, and pricing.

_Sec_. _ 4_. _Recommendations for Reform_. The Task Force shall develop recommendations for administrative and legislative reforms to the United States postal system.

(a) Such recommendations shall promote our Nation’s commerce and communication without shifting additional costs to taxpayers. The recommendations shall be developed in a manner that is consistent with the proposed plan to reorganize the executive branch as required by Executive Order13781 of March13, 2017.

(b) Such recommendations shall also consider the views of the USPS workforce; commercial, non-profit, and residential users of the USPS services; and competitors in the marketplace.

_Sec_. _ 5_. _Report_. The Task Force, acting through the Chair and the Director of the Office of Management and Budget, shall submit a report to the President, in coordination with the Directors of the Domestic Policy and National Economic Councils, not later than 120days after the date of this order. In its report, the Task Force shall summarize its findings and recommendations under sections3 and 4 of this order.

_Sec_. _ 6_. _Administration_. The Federal Financing Bank shall provide administrative support and funding for the Task Force.

_Sec_. _ 7_. _General Provisions_. (a) Nothing in this order shall be construed to impair or otherwise affect:

(i) the authority granted by law to an executive department or agency, or the head thereof; or

(ii) the functions of the Director of the Office of Management and Budget relating to budgetary, administrative, or legislative proposals.

(b) This order shall be implemented consistent with applicable law and subject to the availability of appropriations.

(c) This order is not intended to, and does not, create any right or benefit, substantive or procedural, enforceable at law or in equity by any party against the UnitedStates, its departments, agencies, or entities, its officers, employees, or agents, or any other person.

DONALD J. TRUMP

THE WHITE HOUSE,

April 12, 2018.

end

Trump goes against Sessions and promises to protect USA individual states the right for legalization of marijuana

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Overrules Sessions: Promises To Protect States’ Pot Legalization Rights

Just over 3 months ago, AG Jeff Sessions dropped a bombshell on the marijuana market when he rescinded policies allowing states to legalize pot.

But now, following Sen. Cory Gardner’s, the Colorado Republican, threat to block all DOJ nominations, The Washington Post reports that President Trump has defused the standoff and promised the top Senate Republican that he will support congressional efforts to protect states that have legalized marijuana.

WaPo reports that in a phone call late Wednesday, Trump told Gardner that despite the DOJ memo, the marijuana industry in Colorado won’t be targeted, the senator said in a statement Friday. Satisfied, the first-term senator is now backing down from his nominee blockade.

“Since the campaign, President Trump has consistently supported states’ rights to decide for themselves how best to approach marijuana,” Gardner said Friday.

“Late Wednesday, I received a commitment from the President that the Department of Justice’s rescission of the Cole memo will not impact Colorado’s legal marijuana industry.”

He added:

“Furthermore, President Trump has assured me that he will support a federalism-based legislative solution to fix this states’ rights issue once and for all. Because of these commitments, I have informed the Administration that I will be lifting my remaining holds on Department of Justice nominees.”

This seemed appropriate for many…

Quoth the Raven@QTRResearch

*TRUMP AGREES TO PROTECT STATES’ POT LEGALIZATION RIGHTS: WAPO

And Marijuana stocks are jumping…

 

SWAMP STORIES

White House officials had hoped that the Trump meeting with Rosenstein would calm his anger over the Cohen raid.  It did not as many are calling for Rosenstein’s firing.

(courtesy zerohedge)

White House Aides Hoped Rosenstein Meeting Would Calm Trump’s Anger Over Cohen Raid

A day after he reportedly discussed the prospect of firing Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein (and after reports surfaced that Trump came close to firing Special Counsel Robert Mueller in December) Bloombergreports that the DOJ’s No. 2 official assured Trump during a tense White House meeting that he was cooperating fully with Congressional Republicans and their investigation into suspected malfeasance at the FBI.

White House aides had organized the meeting hoping that it would cool Trump’s anger over the raid of the house, hotel and office of his personal attorney Michael Cohen (whose legal practice only has one client: Trump). However, it appears to have had the opposite effect. One person who attended the meeting said Trump seemed distracted.

Rosenstein

Trump recently slammed reports that he intended to fire Mueller, claiming that if he really wanted the special counsel gone, he would’ve already told him to pack up his things.

Donald J. Trump

✔@realDonaldTrump

If I wanted to fire Robert Mueller in December, as reported by the Failing New York Times, I would have fired him. Just more Fake News from a biased newspaper!

The meeting between Trump and Rosenstein followed the release (after months and months of waiting) of a (mostly) unredacted version of a memo that the FBI used as evidence to help justify the launch of the Russia probe during the summer of 2016. The disclosure comes after House Intel Committee Chairman Devin Nunes threatened to hold Rosenstein and FBI Director Chris Wray in contempt.

Unfortunately, Republican leaders in Congress say the release of the document and Trump’s face-time with the DOJ’s No. 2 official have done little to defuse tensions between the DOJ and Trump’s allies (as well as the president himself). Mark Meadows, the leader of the House Freedom Caucus, still believes Rosenstein and Wray should be held in contempt.

Representative Mark Meadows, chairman of the House subcommittee on government operations, said Thursday evening that he was unaware of the White House meeting, or of any resolution to the standoff over documents.

Meadows said he and other members of the Oversight and Judiciary committees were continuing to urge Judiciary Chairman Bob Goodlatte of Virginia to pursue contempt charges against Rosenstein and Wray.

“I remain unsatisfied. Nothing has satisfied me yet. Because nothing has changed from yesterday, or the day before, or the day before that,” said Meadows.

Goodlatte, in a separate interview, said he wasn’t aware of any breakthrough on the document dispute.

Meanwhile, as BBG points out, several Trump allies have taken to cable news this week to encourage the president to fire Rosenstein.

Bannon added that Trump should stop cooperating with Mueller and assert executive privilege to silence aides who might speak with the special counsel – even retroactively, for those who’ve already been interviewed.

Other supporters of the president made their arguments on television. Roger Stone, a sometime Trump confidant, told ABC News on Wednesday that Trump should fire Sessions and Rosenstein. Joe diGenova, an attorney who was nearly added to Trump’s legal team last month, said on Fox News that Sessions should fire Rosenstein.

“The fact is Rod Rosenstein has not done his job. He has not supervised Mueller. This whole thing is an absurdity,” former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, another Trump ally, said on Fox News on Wednesday.

If Trump truly intended to fire Rosenstein and Mueller, he may have missed his chance: The one-two punch of the Cohen raid coupled with the release of excerpts from James Comey’s memoir has created a cloud of intense scrutiny over the president’s decision-making.

Also, now that Mueller has sloughed off at least some of the responsibility for the wide-ranging probe to the US attorney for the Southern District of New York, sacking both DOJ officials wouldn’t necessarily guarantee the end of the investigation.

END

Rosenstein consulted with an ethics advisor on whether to recuse himself from the Mueller probe.  Maybe he will recuse himself now to save his job

(courtesy zerohedge)

Rosenstein Consulted With Ethics Advisor Over Recusing Himself From Mueller Probe

The deluge of political news from the past week has continued on Friday with reports about the fate of Rod Rosenstein, the White House’s attempt to push back against an FBI raid on Trump attorney Michael Cohen, the excerpts from James Comey’s memoir…the list goes on.

Roz

And in the latest update regarding Rosenstein, CNN reported Friday afternoon that the deputy attorney general has consulted with an ethics official at the DOJ about whether he should recuse himself from supervising the Mueller probe. And although CNN neglected to say exactly what this ethics advisor told Rosenstein, it did report that the deputy AG has followed their advice – which presupposes that the advisor gave him the all-clear to stay on.

But CNN has now learned that Rosenstein has consulted with the ethics adviser over the course of the investigation on whether he needs to recuse himself, and he has followed that individual’s advice — a fact which has not been previously reported and offers a more fulsome explanation for how he has continued to oversee Mueller’s work. The source did not specify the number of conversations, timing, or the details of the advice.

To date, Rosenstein has offered little by way of explanation publicly, but he made clear last year that if he were to become a subject of Mueller’s investigation, he would recuse himself.

“I’ve talked with Director Mueller about this,” Rosenstein told the Associated Press. “He’s going to make the appropriate decisions, and if anything that I did winds up being relevant to his investigation then, as Director Mueller and I discussed, if there’s a need from me to recuse, I will.”

The crux of the issue dates back to last May, when Rosenstein wrote a memo outlining ways Comey had flouted Justice Department protocols leading up to the 2016 election. Trump used the memo to justify firing Comey, but later told NBC “this Russia thing” was on his mind when he fired Comey, and he would have done it regardless of Rosenstein’s memo.

Rosenstein’s role in the episode has continually raised questions about how he has been able to oversee Mueller’s investigation if it delves into potential issues of obstruction of justice.

Trump raised the issue early on, tweeting in June: “I am being investigated for firing the FBI Director by the man who told me to fire the FBI Director! Witch Hunt.”

Apparently, legal experts believe the fact that Rosenstein consulted with an ethics advisor lends some legitimacy to his decision to continue supervising the Mueller probe.

But legal experts say the fact that Rosenstein consulted with an ethics adviser adds more legitimacy to his decision to stay on.
It “indicates that he is intent on doing things the right way,” said CNN legal analyst Carrie Cordero, who served as senior associate general counsel at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and an attorney adviser at the Justice Department.

“Based on how he has overseen the special counsel to date, and the fact that Attorney General Jeff Sessions recused himself on the advice of DOJ’s ethics advisers, I’m inclined to think that if Rosenstein was advised by career officials that he needed to recuse himself from certain matters, he would do so,” Cordero added.

While CNN doesn’t directly come out and say that this was the ethics counsel’s argument, it appears their reasoning went something like this: Since Mueller’s investigation into obstruction is focused on Trump’s mindset when he fired FBI Director James Comey, Rosenstein’s role in drafting the infamous memo explaining the rationale for firing Comey is inconsequential.

“The dismissal itself is a matter of public record,” Georgetown Law Professor Marty Lederman wrote for the Just Security law blog. “And in light of Trump’s own admissionsabout his desire to put a crimp in the Russia inquiry, it’s not obvious that Mueller would have much to do in investigating that question other than to question Trump himself, something that apparently has not yet happened.

Joe diGeneva, Alan Dershowitz and a handful of other lawyers have taken to cable news recently to demand that Rosenstein recuse himself, portraying him as hopelessly compromised. However, this is a relatively new strategy by Trump’s defenders. Previously, the White House had been reluctant to even mention Rosenstein’s role in Comey’s firing because that would entail an admission that Trump is, in fact, under investigation for obstruction.

But with Rosenstein reportedly telling friends that he’s ready to be fired, we wonder if he might reconsider his decision not to recuse himself in a last-ditch attempt to save his job?

 end

Trump is stating that there is tremendous pressure to end the cradling of sanctuary cities especially in California

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump: “Tremendous Pressure” Is Building To End “Crime Cradling Sanctuary Cities”

Just a month after the US began legal proceedings against California’s “unjust, unfair and unconstitutional policies”with regard to illegal immigrants, President Trump is escalating his tweet-attacks against the “crime-cradling” Sanctuary cities Friday morning, correctly pointing out that “tremendous pressure” is building to end sanctuary city policies once and for all.

Trump also touted his administration’s decision to begin construction on part of his promised border wall near San Diego, an area where Trump was welcomed by crowds of supporters during a recent visit.

Donald J. Trump✔@realDonaldTrump

Tremendous pressure is building, like never before, for the Border Wall and an end to crime cradling Sanctuary Cities. Started the Wall in San Diego, where the people were pushing really hard to get it. They will soon be protected!

The DOJ’s decision to sue the state of California over its sanctuary city laws has inspired several California cities to join the rebellion against the state’s ultra-liberal government.

Citizens the state over are refusing to sit idly by while California Gov. Jerry Brown unlawfully protects illegals in their state. Los Alamitos was the first city to take action, voting 4-1 on March 19 to pass a city ordinance exempting it from SB 54.

That vote set in motion a small movement:

#ThePersistence✔@ScottPresler

California Cities Against SB 54:
✔️Los Alamitos
✔️Fountain Valley
✔️Huntington Beach
✔️San Juan Capistrano

It’s time to show up, speak out, & take back your state.

Furthermore, the cities of Aliso Viejo and Buena Park have announced they would join the push against the law.

Earlier this month, the Huntington Beach City Council voted to sue the state over SB 54, which protects illegal immigrants by preventing local law enforcement from cooperating with ICE agents.

And we imagine more cities will join the movement as the impact of the state’s policies begin to be felt.

end

The rhetoric between Comey and Trump getting louder by the day

(courtesy zerohedge)

“He’s An Untruthful Slime Ball” – Trump Lashes Out At “Proven Liar” Comey

As former FBI Director James Comey’s book excerpts leak, showing his feelings towards the President to be exactly what many had assumed, President Trump has struck back… blasting that “James Comey is a proven LEAKER & LIAR.”  and adding that “Virtually everyone in Washington thought he should be fired for the terrible job he did-until he was, in fact, fired.”

Trump then laid out the reality of what the supposedly honorable Comey did “He leaked CLASSIFIED information, for which he should be prosecuted. He lied to Congress under OATH. He is a weak and…..”

Donald J. Trump✔@realDonaldTrump

James Comey is a proven LEAKER & LIAR. Virtually everyone in Washington thought he should be fired for the terrible job he did-until he was, in fact, fired. He leaked CLASSIFIED information, for which he should be prosecuted. He lied to Congress under OATH. He is a weak and…..

and given the ellipsis, we suspect more abuse is coming…

And sure enough, Trump lashed out at Comey for being an “untruthful slime ball who was, as time has proven, a terrible Director of the FBI.”

He then jabbed at what Comey even admitted in his book was a mistake “His handling of the Crooked Hillary Clinton case, and the events surrounding it, will go down as one of the worst ‘botch jobs’ of history.”

Donald J. Trump✔@realDonaldTrump

….untruthful slime ball who was, as time has proven, a terrible Director of the FBI. His handling of the Crooked Hillary Clinton case, and the events surrounding it, will go down as one of the worst “botch jobs” of history. It was my great honor to fire James Comey!

Finally Trump concluded, “It was my great honor to fire James Comey!”

But seriously though Mr. President, how do you really feel about Comey?

end

Wow!! this is getting good;  Cohen is now at court trying to seek an injunction against the FBI form examining materials including digital recordings with clients who do business with Trump.  Cohen is claiming that lawyer -client information is privileged and it should be sacrosanct.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Cohen Seeks Injunction To Stop FBI From Examining Materials Seized During Raid

Last night, Business Insider reported that Michael Cohen’s predilection for keeping digital recordings of his conversations with associates could become a major problem for him – and a major boon for investigators – should the FBI find anything incriminating on the tapes.

Which is perhaps why Cohen is seeking a temporary restraining order against the FBI to stop them from using some or all of the seized materials, according to Reuters.

Cohen

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports that Cohen is planning to ask a judge to delay the civil lawsuit filed by adult film actress Stormy Daniels because of the FBI raid and Cohen’s newfound legal troubles.

Trump and Cohen say the criminal case “implicates” Cohen’s Fifth Amendment privilege against self-incrimination if he were questioned in the Daniels case, according to a filing in Los Angeles federal court.

“No decision has been made for Mr. Cohen to assert his Fifth Amendment rights,” Brent Blakely, a lawyer for Cohen, said in an email. “No questions have even been posed.”

Daniels sued to undo a non-disclosure agreement she signed in 2016 that she said was intended to silence her about a sexual encounter she had with Trump a decade earlier. Cohen has said that he paid $130,000 to Daniels out of his own pocket just before the presidential election and that he wasn’t reimbursed.

CNN reported this morning that Cohen taped copious conversations with other Trump associates during the campaign– and that these recordings are almost certainly now in the hands of the FBI. Some of those people are now worried that their conversations could incriminate them as well.

A hearing on the searches has been set for 10:30 am ET in a Manhattan federal courthouse.

Since news of the raid broke on Wednesday, details about what the investigators were looking for have slowly trickled out. Aside from materials related to the purported “silencing” of Stormy Daniels and former Playmate Karen MacDougal, the FBI was also reportedly looking for evidence of a $30,000 payment Cohen facilitated to a former Trump property doorman reportedly to stop him from spreading a rumor about a lovechild Trump allegedly fathered with an employee at one of his properties, the AP reported.

END

Rosenstein is reportedly ready to be fired

(courtesy zerohedge)

Rosenstein Reportedly Tells Friends He’s Ready To Be Fired

Following news that a meeting between Deputy AG Rod Rosenstein and President Trump earlier this week went somewhat worse than both mens’ teams had expected, three people who are purportedly close to Rosenstein say the embattled supervisor of Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia probe is prepared for Trump to fire him.

While Rosenstein had once seemed incredibly stressed about the prospect of losing his job, he has finally moved past the anger and fear stage, and into the realm of acceptance, according to NBC News.

Roz

But in a detail from the story that can only be construed as incredibly insensitive and utterly lacking in self-awareness, Rosenstein has privately compared himself to the late Reverend Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. Furthermore, Rosenstein has told friends he believes history will vindicate him for his behavior during the Trump era.

In those conversations, he has repeated the phrase, “Here I stand,” a reference to Martin Luther’s famous quote, “Here I stand, I can do no other.” Coincidentally, former FBI Director James Comey, whom Rosenstein fired, repeated the same phrase to President George W. Bush in a conversation that has been widely reported and that Comey describes in his forthcoming book.

One source who spoke to Rosenstein said he seemed fully aware he may soon lose his job and was at peace with the possibility, confident he had done his job with integrity.

Rosenstein has said in recent private conversations that history will prove he did the right thing by firing Comey in May 2017, claiming that the American people do not have all the facts about what led to his decision to write the memo that led to Comey’s dismissal, the sources said.

So, what happens to the Mueller probe if Rosenstein is fired? According to NBC News, the responsibility for supervising the investigation would fall to Solicitor General Noel Francisco – though Trump could try and replace Rosenstein with another Deputy AG. However, that individual would need to be confirmed by the Senate.

Some attorneys, including former “Dream Team” member Alan Dershowitz, have argued that Rosenstein should recuse himself from the Mueller probe altogether, considering that he is a witness to some of the behavior that Mueller is purportedly investigating. Meanwhile, former Chief Strategist Steve Bannon and several other Trump allies have taken to cable news this week to demand that Trump fire Rosenstein, who has served under Republican and Democratic presidents.

Of course, this isn’t the first time that pressure has built up for Trump to fire Mueller and/or Rosenstein. In the past, he has always demurred.

But the FBI raid on Michael Cohen, Trump’s personal attorney, has changed the political – not to mention the legal – calculus: Despite warnings from lawmakers, Trump has just about all the support he would need to give Rosenstein the axe.

end

Part of the Inspector General Horowitz’s report is released and that one is on the conduct of Andrew McCabe. He basically lied 4 times to the Inspector General, to Comey and to Congress.  He is in one heap of trouble

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Ecstatic After OIG Releases Report Which Led To McCabe Termination

The Justice Department Office of Inspector General (OIG) delivered a scathing report to Congress on Friday, accusing former FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe of repeatedly misleading investigators.

McCabe was fired on March 16 after the OIG found that he “had made an unauthorized disclosure to the news media and lacked candor – including under oath – on multiple occasions.”

Needless to say, President Trump – who is waging open war with Comey, McCabe and much of the FBI’s past and present leadership – was delighted by the release of the OIG report, which prompted the following outburst: “”DOJ just issued the McCabe report – which is a total disaster. He LIED! LIED! LIED! McCabe was totally controlled by Comey – McCabe is Comey!! No collusion, all made up by this den of thieves and lowlifes!”

Donald J. Trump✔@realDonaldTrump

DOJ just issued the McCabe report – which is a total disaster. He LIED! LIED! LIED! McCabe was totally controlled by Comey – McCabe is Comey!! No collusion, all made up by this den of thieves and lowlifes!

We assume today’s report (found below in its entirety) only covers McCabe, and is not the all encompassing “OIG Report” probing the FBI’s conduct during the Clinton email investigation. Nowhere in the report, for example, is any mention of the FBI altering Hillary Clinton’s exoneration letter, effectively decriminalizing her mishandling of classified information. Of note, the OIG launched a separate probe in late March covering alleged FISA abuses by the DOJ and FBI.

One tidbit from the report is brought to us by Jordan Schachtel.

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Jordan Schachtel✔@JordanSchachtel

BIG finding in OIG report:

McCabe leaks to the WSJ

Then reprimands two senior FBI officials for leaks in the story

Specifically telling the NY Assistant director to “get his house in order”

Without disclosing that he was the leaker! https://static01.nyt.com/files/2018/us/politics/20180413a-doj-oig-mccabe-report.pdf …

(Schachtel included a correction in a follow-up tweet noting that McCabe actually said this to the Washington Field Division assistant director, while he also reprimanded the NY Assistant Director).

On March 30, Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) revealed on Fox News that McCabe lied four times, including under oath to the Inspector General. 

JORDAN: “McCabe didn’t lie just once, he lied four times. He lied to James Comey. He lied to the Office of Professional Responsibility and he lied twice under oath to the Inspector General. Remember, this is Andrew McCabe, Deputy Director of the FBI. This is Andrew McCabe, the text messages between Peter Strzok and Lisa Page talking about Andy’s office, the meeting where they talk about the insurance policy in case Donald Trump is actually President of the United States… Four times he lied about leaking information to the Wall Street Journal.”

McCabe was fired when it was uncovered that he authorized an F.B.I. spokesman and attorney to tell Devlin Barrett of the Wall St. Journal, just days before the 2016 election, that the FBI had not put the brakes on a separate investigation into the Clinton Foundation – at a time in which McCabe was coming under fire for his wife taking a $467,500 campaign contribution from Clinton proxy pal, Terry McAuliffe. 

The WSJarticle in question reads:

New details show that senior law-enforcement officials repeatedly voiced skepticism of the strength of the evidence in a bureau investigation of the Clinton Foundation, sought to condense what was at times a sprawling cross-country effort, and, according to some people familiar with the matter, told agents to limit their pursuit of the case. The probe of the foundation began more than a year ago to determine whether financial crimes or influence peddling occurred related to the charity.

…

Some investigators grew frustrated, viewing FBI leadership as uninterested in probing the charity, these people said. Others involved disagreed sharply, defending FBI bosses and saying Mr. McCabe in particular was caught between an increasingly acrimonious fight for control between the Justice Department and FBI agents pursuing the Clinton Foundation case.

So McCabe leaked information to the WSJ in order to combat rumors that Clinton had indirectly bribed him to back off the Clinton Foundation investigation, and then lied about it four times to the DOJ and FBI, including twice under oath.

Sean Davis of The Federalist has a few salient comments on this OIG report:

Sean Davis✔@seanmdav

According to the just-released DOJ OIG report on Andrew McCabe, McCabe lied to the FBI director, lied to FBI agents under oath, and lied twice to DOJ OIG investigators under oath. https://static01.nyt.com/files/2018/us/politics/20180413a-doj-oig-mccabe-report.pdf …

Sean Davis✔@seanmdav
Replying to @seanmdav

DOJ OIG also concluded that McCabe’s leaks were designed not to help the FBI, DOJ, or U.S. law enforcement, but to “advance his personal interests.”

Sean Davis✔@seanmdav
Replying to @seanmdav

The investigation of McCabe was started internally by FBI investigators, then referred to DOJ’s OIG. The FBI was mad that the McCabe-directed leak, meant to save his own hide, confirmed that the Clinton Foundation was investigated by the FBI, something they didn’t want public.

Sean Davis✔@seanmdav
Replying to @seanmdav

Though not mentioned by name in the report, previously published text messages make clear that FBI special counsel Lisa Page and counter-intel deputy assistant director Peter Strzok were intimately involved in McCabe’s lengthy leak campaign.

Sean Davis✔@seanmdav
Replying to @seanmdav

Page even bragged to Strzok about how she threw DOJ leadership “under the bus” in her leaks to protect McCabe’s personal reputation in the media.

Perhaps McCabe’s $568,000 GoFundMe “Legal Defense Fund” will come in handy

END

Let us close out the week with this wrap up courtesy of Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog

US/UK Syrian Airstrike Stalled, Ryan Retires, Economic Update

By Greg Hunter On April 13, 2018 In Weekly News Wrap-Ups

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (WNW 330 4.13.18)

Not many people anywhere actually believe the chemical weapon attack was done by the Assad regime in Syria, but some do. The timing is extremely suspect when on one week, you hear President Trump say he wants to leave Syria, and the next week, there is a gas attack. Why would Assad want the U.S. to stay? The UK has given the green light for an attack, while Russia is warning of a counter attack if Syrian or Russian troops are fired upon. At the moment, it looks like an attack has been stalled. Hopefully, everyone will figure out a way to save face without starting a wider conflict.

Speaker of the House Paul Ryan has announced he will not run for re-election in November. Many in the GOP want him to step down now and not wait until his term ends early next year. Ryan is only 48 years old and is number 3 in line to succeed the President if both the President and Vice President cannot fulfill their terms. Ryan says he’s not running because he wants to to spend more time with the family.

The economy is sending out mixed signals. The stock market is at near all-time highs, the unemployment rate is near record lows and shipping is tight because of the good economy. On the other hand, bankruptcies are up and earnings for workers are down. Are things good or bad? It looks like the answer is both, depending on what you do and where you live.

Join Greg Hunter as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up.

Video Link

https://usawatchdog.com/usuk-syrian-airstrike-stalled- ryan-retires-economic-update/

end

I will  see you  FRIDAY night

HARVEY

Leave a comment