NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR APRIL CONTRACT:117 NOTICE(S) FOR 11700 OZ.

TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR 1086 FOR 108,600 OZ (3.3779 tonnes)

THE COMEX IS OUT OF GOLD

For silver:

APRIL

15 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

75,000 OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 497 for 2,485,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: BID $8780/OFFER $8882: DOWN $23(morning)

Bitcoin: BID/ $8998/offer $9098: UP $192 (CLOSING/5 PM)

end

First Shanghai gold fix comes at 10 pm est

The second Shanghai gold fix: 2:15 pm

First Shanghai gold fix gold: 10 pm est: 1331.25

NY price at the same time: 1324.40

PREMIUM TO NY SPOT: $6.85

Second gold fix early this morning: 1331.93

USA gold at the exact same time: 1323.00

PREMIUM TO NY SPOT: $7.93

AGAIN, SHANGHAI REJECTS NEW YORK PRICING.

WE WILL NOT PROVIDE LONDON FIXES AS THEY ARE NOT ACCURATE AS TO WHAT IS GOING ON AT THE SAME TIME FRAME.

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST FELL BY 5159 CONTRACTS FROM 201,707 FALLING TO 196,548 ACCOMPANYING YESTERDAY’S 18 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING. AFTER A STRING OF 4 CONSECUTIVE OI GAINS, WE NOW REGISTER 4 CONSECUTIVE DROPS IN OI. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY COMEX LONG LIQUIDATION AS WE HEAD INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY AS LONGS PACK THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATE OVER TO LONDON. WE WERE NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD AN STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP : 0 EFP CONTRACTS FOR APRIL, 3902 EFP’S FOR MAY , 782 EFP’S FOR JULY AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE OF 4684 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 4684 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 4684 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 23.420 MILLION OZ ACCOMPANYING 1.THE FALL IN SILVER PRICE (18 CENTS) AT THE COMEX AND 2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR APRIL COMEX DELIVERY.

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF APRIL:

73,158 CONTRACTS (FOR 19 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 73,158 CONTRACTS) OR 357.90 MILLION OZ: AVERAGE PER DAY: 3850 CONTRACTS OR 19.252 MILLION OZ/DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER: SO FAR THIS MONTH: 357.90 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 51.128% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S: 1.0838 BILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018: 236.879 MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018: 244.95 MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018: 236.67 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A LARGE SIZED FALL IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX OF 5159 WITH THE 18 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AS OUR CUSTOMARY COMEX LONG MIGRATION INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS COMMENCED IN EARNEST AS WE ARE APPROACHING THE NEW ACTIVE MONTH OF MAY. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT IN FACT WE HAD AN HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 4684 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) . FROM THE CME DATA: 0 CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED FOR APRIL, 3902 EFP’S WERE ISSUED FOR THE MONTH OF MAY, AND 782 EFP CONTRACTS FOR JULY, FOR A DELIVERABLE FORWARD CONTRACT OVER IN LONDON WITH A FIAT BONUS (TOTAL: 4684). TODAY WE LOST 475 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: i.e. 4684 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH AN DECREASE OF 5159 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH THE FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER OF 18 CENTS AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $16.54 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN THIS NON ACTIVE APRIL DELIVERY MONTH.

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. .982 MILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 140% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT APRIL MONTH/ THEY FILED: 15 NOTICE(S) FOR 15,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER, WE HAVE NOW SET THE NEW RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51 ON APRIL 9.2018.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY (MARCH 27 MILLION OZ AND APRIL 1.8 MILLION OZ)
HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018
HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 357.9 MILLION OZ/ (SO FAR)

AND YET WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND. TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT). IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE BANKER CAPITULATION IN SILVER AS THEY STRUGGLE TO REMOVE SOME OF THEIR HUGE OBLIGATIONS.

In gold, the open interest ROSE BY 373 CONTRACTS UP TO 506,783 DESPITE THE FALL IN PRICE/YESTERDAY’S TRADING ( FALL OF $9.80). WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL HEADING INTO THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF MAY. THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A GIGANTIC SIZED 12,209 CONTRACTS : JUNE SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 11,659 CONTRACTS , MAY SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 400 CONTRACTS AND AUGUST SAW THE ISSUANCE OF: 150 CONTRACTS (REPORTED LATE YESTERDAY) WITH ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO. The new OI for the gold complex rests at 506,783. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S. THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY. THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. DEMAND FOR GOLD INTENSIFIES GREATLY AS WE CONTINUE TO WITNESS A HUGE NUMBER OF EFP TRANSFERS TOGETHER WITH THE MASSIVE INCREASE IN GOLD COMEX OI TOGETHER WITH THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF GOLD OUNCES STANDING FOR FEBRUARY COMEX. EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A LARGE SIZED OI GAIN IN CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 373 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND AN GIGANTIC SIZED 12,209 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON.THUS TOTAL OI GAIN: 12,582 CONTRACTS OR 1,258,200 OZ = 39.135 TONNES.

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 8946 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL : 212,950 CONTRACTS OR 21,295,000 OZ OR 662.36 TONNES (19 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 11,207 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY OR 1,120,700 OZ/ TRADING DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : SO FAR THIS MONTH IN 19 TRADING DAYS IN TONNES: 662.36 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 662.36/2550 x 100% TONNES = 25.97% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN MARCH ALONE.*** THE ACCUMULATION OF EFP CONTRACTS IS RISING PER MONTH.

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE: 2,702.063* TONNES *SURPASSED ANNUAL PROD’N

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018: 653.22 TONNES

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018: 649.45 TONNES

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018: 741.89 TONNES

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

Result: AN INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 373 DESPITE THE FALL IN PRICE // GOLD TRADING YESTERDAY ($9.80 LOSS). WE ALSO HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 12,209 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED. THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX. I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 12,209 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A STRONG SIZED NET GAIN OF 12,209 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

12,209 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 373 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 39.135 TONNES).

we had:117 notice(s) filed upon for 11700 oz of gold at the comex.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD…

WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90 /NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

Inventory rests tonight: 871.20 tonnes.

SLV/

WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.899 MILLION OZ/

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY 5159 CONTRACTS from 201,707 DOWN TO 196,548 (AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET /APRIL 9/2017 AT 243,411). THE PREVIOUS RECORD OTHER THAN WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 ALMOST ONE YEAR AGO. THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89. AFTER WE HAVE HAD FOUR CONSECUTIVE OI GAINS WE NOW HAVE FOUR CONSECUTIVE OI DROPS AS OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS HAVING COMMENCED WITH OUR MARCH INTO THE UPCOMING ACTIVE MAY DELIVERY MONTH (AT THE COMEX). TRUE TO FORM OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE: 0 EFP CONTRACTS FOR APRIL, 3902 EFP CONTRACTS FOR MAY (WE DO NOT GET A LOOK AT THESE CONTRACTS AS IT IS PRIVATE BUT THE CFTC DOES AUDIT THEM), AND 782 EFP’S FOR JULY AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4684 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 5159 CONTRACTS TO THE 4684 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S, SURPRISINGLY WE OBTAIN A TINY LOSS OF 475 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 2.375 MILLION OZ!!! AND THIS OCCURRED DESPITE A FALL IN PRICE OF 18 CENTS. THE BANKERS ORCHESTRATED THEIR RAID ON MONDAY TO DESPERATELY TRY AND PARE THEIR GIGANTIC OPEN INTEREST SHORT ON BOTH EXCHANGES BUT TO NO AVAIL. JUDGING BY THE RECORD NUMBER OF ISSUANCE DURING THIS MONTH OF APRIL AT 357.4 MILLION OZ. I DO NOT THINK THAT OUR BANKERS HAVE BEEN TOO SUCCESSFUL. PLEASE REMEMBER THAT THERE CAN BE DELAY OF 24 TO 48 HOURS IN THE ISSUANCE OF THESE EFP’S, SO EXPECT THE NUMBERS ANNOUNCED (EFP’S) WILL INCREASE STEADILY AS WE HEAD INTO FIRST DAY NOTICE THIS MONDAY APRIL 30.

RESULT: A LARGE SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE FALL IN SILVER PRICING / YESTERDAY (18 CENTS/) . BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER HUMONGOUS SIZED 4684 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR APRIL, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON. EXPECT EFP ISSUANCE TO INCREASE DURING THIS WEEK AS WE HEAD INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY.

(report Harvey)

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed DOWN 42.94 POINTS OR 1.38% /Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 320.47 POINTS OR 1.06% / The Nikkei closed UP 104.29 POINTS OR 0.47%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .56% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.3238/Oil DOWN to 68.45 dollars per barrel for WTI and 74.53 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED DEEPLY IN THE GREEN. ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AT 6.3238 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3179/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING MUCH STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE A FULL TRADE WAR IS BEGINNING/

/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

i)North Korea/

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 c CHINA

i)China’s big worry: North Korea unifies with the South and becomes a strong USA ally with missiles pointing toward Beijing

( zerohedge)

ii)China is planning to lower the auto tariffs from 25% to either 15% or 10%. However cars manufactured in the uSA will still have its 25% tariff as Xi is still dueling with Trump

( zerohedge)

iii)USA top admiral warns that China now controls the South China Sea

( zerohedge)

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)European ECB report to Europe/Press conference

Optimism from Draghi has he downplays soft economic data sends the Euro higher along with gold/silver

( zerohedge)

ii)Germany/Deutsche bank

World’s largest derivative bank and player reports disastrous results as it totally retreats from USA banking:

( zerohedge)

iib)the massive layoffs begin as Deutsche bank fires 400 USA bankers. It is these guys that we need to testify in the gold/silver manipulation

(courtesy zerohedge)

iii)Bill Blain correctly states that the reason millenials are not buying cars or home is simple: lack of money and huge amounts of debt

( Bill Blain/Mint partners)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)Israel/Syria/Russia

This is deadly: Russia has decided to send the new advanced S 300 anti aircraft missiles to Syria. This is a red line for Israel as they warn of catastrophic consequences.

( zerohedge)

ii)Iran/USA

More threats: this time the Iranian Naval Commander has threatened to sink USA ships in the Gulf and create a catastrophic situation if Trump kills the deal. If the deal is dropped, then Iran loses 1 million barrels of oil per day on top of other sanctions

( zerohedge)

iii)Israel/Iran

the rhetoric intensifies: Israel claims that the Iranian regime is in its final days economically and militarily

( zerohedge)

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

Why Canada is heading down the same path as other countries with no gold

( Alex Deluce/GoldTelegraph.com

7. OIL ISSUES

8. EMERGING MARKET

i)Venezuela

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)For some inexplicable reason, the Government chose to drop all charges against Flotron except the spoofing and that is what the acquittal was based on

( Bloomberg/GATA)

ii)The higher dollar is having its effect on commodities including gold and silver

( Craig Hemke/Sprott Money/GATA)

iii)Simon Black comments on gold:

very few gold discoveries in this last decade so supply of gold diminishes
inflation is raring its ugly read

( Simon Black/SovereignMan.com)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

i)This morning’s early trading:

ii)This morning’s reports:

First: initial claims drop but durable goods also disappoint

( zerohedge)

iii)SWAMP STORIES

a)Giuliani has met Mueller and surprisingly he is discussing the upcoming Trump interview

( zerohedge)

b)Trump is interviewed on Fox and Friends:

1. Trump says that his approach to the DOJ may change

2. Upset with Tester of VA nominee Jackson and his subsequent departure from the nomination process

3. Iran; Trump will no doubt leave the agreement despite the urging of Macron to continue with it

4. Cohen: does a small part of his personal stuff and the raid has nothing to do with him but he is still upset by it

5. Very critical of the crook Comey

( zerohedge)

Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest ROSE BY 373 CONTRACTS UP to an OI level 506,783 DESPITE THE CONSIDERABLE FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($9.90 LOSS/ YESTERDAY’S TRADING). FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE. THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A HUMONGOUS SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS. WE HAD A LARGE 11,659 FOR JUNE, 400 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAY, 150 EFP CONTRACTS FOR AUGUST AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS: TOTAL 12,209 CONTRACTS. THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST 48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 12,582 OI CONTRACTS IN THAT 12,240 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED 373 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 12,582 contracts OR 1,258,200 OZ OR 39.135 TONNES.

Result: AN INCREASE IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST DESPITE THE FALL IN PRICE YESTERDAY (ENDING UP WITH A LOSS OF $9.80)THE TOTAL OPEN INTEREST GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 12,582 OI CONTRACTS..

We have now entered the active contract month of APRIL where we LOST 3 contracts LOWERING TO 525 contracts. We had 2 notices served yesterday, so we LOST 1 contract or an additional 100 oz will NOT stand for delivery in this active delivery month of April AND THIS GUYS MORPHED INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

May saw A GAIN of 334 contracts to stand at 1226. The really big June contract month saw a LOSS of 2702 contracts DOWN to 367,998 contracts. The next big delivery month after June is August and here the OI ROSE BY 2041 contracts UP to 55,353.

We had 117 notice(s) filed upon today for 11700 oz at the comex

THERE IS NO QUESTION THAT THE COMEX DOES NOT HAVE ANY GOLD TO SATISFY UPON OUR LONGS.

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY:280,880 contracts

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY: 283,076 contracts

comex gold volumes are RISING AGAIN

Here is a summary of the latest gold trading volumes at the Comex per year

certainly the introduction of EFP’s has certainly had an effect:

Meanwhile, gold-trading volumes on the COMEX have never been higher:

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE 5159 CONTRACTS FROM 201,707 DOWN TO 196,548 (AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) WITH THE 18 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING. SINCE WE ARE HEADING INTO AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY, WE HAVE NOW WITNESSED OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY COMEX LIQUIDATION AND WE SHOULD SEE A GREATER MIGRATION OVER TO LONDON DURING THIS WEEK. AS A MATTER OF FACT, WE WERE INFORMED THAT WE HAD A GIGANTIC 3902 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAY, A SMALLER 782 EFP CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR JULY AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS. THESE EFPS WERE ISSUED TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 4684. ON A NET BASIS WE LOST 475 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A 5159 CONTRACT LOSS AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 4684 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON. DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE BOYS WERE VERY BUSY NEGOTIATING LONG COMEX CONTRACTS EMIGRATING TO LONDON,(AND WAITING FOR THEIR PASSPORTS) DO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A HUGE ISSUANCE OVER THIS WEEK AS THE DELAY IN ISSUANCE CAN BE IN EXCESS OF 24 TO 48 HRS.

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 475 CONTRACTS

AMOUNT STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX

We are now in the non active delivery month of April and here the front month LOST 5 contracts FALLING TO 15 contracts. We had 5 notices filed upon so in essence we LOST 0 contracts or NIL additional ounces of silver will stand for delivery in this non active delivery month of April .

The next big active delivery month for silver will be May and here the OI LOST 10,522 contracts DOWN to 30,394. June saw a GAIN of 145 contracts to stand at 533. The next big delivery month for silver is July and here the OI ROSE by 5136 contracts UP to 117,341.

We had 15 notice(s) filed for 75,000 OZ for the APRIL 2018 contract for silver

INITIAL standings for APRIL/GOLD

APRIL 26/2018.

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory in oz*	nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer* Inventory in oz*	NIL OZ
Deposits to the Dealer* Inventory in oz*	NIL oz
Deposits to the Customer* Inventory, in oz*	nil OZ
No of oz served (contracts) today	117 notice(s) 11,700 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)	408 contracts (40,800 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	1086 notices 108600 OZ 3.3779 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer* inventory this month*	xxx oz

from the last week of March til today, we have had only 5 small entries for gold and they were all of the “kilobars” variety

From my vantage point, the comex is void of gold. This rarely happens in a delivery month as gold is called upon to deliver.

***

we had 0 kilobar transaction/

We had 0 inventory movement at the dealer accounts

total inventory deposit into the dealer accounts: NIL oz

total inventory withdrawals out of dealer accounts; nil oz

we had 0 withdrawals out of the customer account:

total customer withdrawals: NIL oz

we had 0 customer deposit

total customer deposits: nil oz

we had 0 adjustment(s)

For APRIL:
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 117 contract(s) of which 2 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 117 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the APRIL. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1086) x 100 oz or 108,600 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of APRIL. (525 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (117 x 100 oz per contract) equals 149,400 oz, the number of ounces standing in this active month of APRIL (4.646 tonnes)

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the APRIL contract month:

No of notices served (969 x 100 oz or ounces + {(525)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (117 x 100 oz )which equals 149,400 oz standing in this active delivery month of APRIL . THERE IS 12.003 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY SO FAR.

WE LOST 1 COMEX OI CONTRACTS OR 100 OZ OF GOLD WILL STAND

total registered or dealer gold: 386.220.357 oz or 12.013 tonnes

total registered and eligible (customer) gold; 9,049,756.666 oz 281.48 tones

THE COMEX IS AGAIN IN STRESS AS ONLY 12.003 TONNES OF GOLD ARE LEFT TO SERVICE DELIVERIES. THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD AT THE COMEX TO SERVE UPON LONGS AND THUS THE REASON FOR THE EFP TRANSFER OVER TO LONDON.

IN THE LAST 18 MONTHS 73 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE APRIL DELIVERY MONTH

APRIL INITIAL standings/SILVER

APRIL 26/ 2018

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory*	nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	616,534.730 oz CNT
Deposits to the Dealer* Inventory*	691,565.04 SCOTIA Brinks oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	302,394.200 oz DELAWARE MALCA 691,565
No of oz served today (contracts)	15 CONTRACT(S) (75,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	0 contracts (0 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	497 contracts (2,485,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer* inventory this month*

we had 2 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

i) Into dealer Scotia: 591,435,100 oz

ii) Into dealer Brinks: 89,275.900 oz

total dealer deposits: 691,565.041 oz

we had 3 deposits into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 140 million oz of total silver inventory or 53.4% of all official comex silver. (140 million/263 million)

JPMorgan did not deposit into its warehouses (official) today.

ii) Delaware: 1081.10: OZ

iii) Into Malca: 299,327.300

iv) Into Scotia: 1985.800

total deposits today: 302,394.200 oz

we had 1 withdrawals from the customer account;

i) Out of CNT 616,534.730 oz

total withdrawals; 616,534.730 oz

we had 0 adjustment

total dealer silver: 63.884 million

total dealer + customer silver: 261.417 million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the APRIL. contract month is represented by 15 contract(s) FOR 75,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in APRIL., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 497 x 5,000 oz = 2,485,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of April. (15) and the number of notices served upon today (15 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the APRIL contract month: 497(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of April(15) -number of notices served upon today (15)x 5000 oz equals 2,485,000 oz of silver standing for the April contract month

WE LOST 0 SILVER CONTRACT OR NIL ADDITIONAL OUNCES WILL STAND IN THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

CRIMINALS!!

ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 116,079 CONTRACTS (WOW) 626 MILLION OZ OR 89% OF ANNUAL PRODUCTION.

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 137,751 CONTRACTS (my goodness)

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 137,751 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO 688 MILLION OZ (0..688 billion oz) OR 133% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -1.95% (APRIL 26/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -0.61% to NAV (APRIL 26/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -1.95%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ territory at -0.61%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail but being rescued by Sprott.
Sprott WINS hostile 3.1 billion bid to take over Central Fund of Canada

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA): NAV FALLS TO -1.95%: NAV 13.62/TRADING 13.35//DISCOUNT 1.95.

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

APRIL 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.20 TONNES

APRIL 25/AFTER 9 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF NO MOVEMENT OF GOLD INTO OUT OF THE GLD, WE HAD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.31 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.20 TONNES.

APRIL 24./WITH GOLD UP $9.90, WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES/

APRIL 23.2018/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.00/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES.

APRIL 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.20: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES

APRIL 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.25: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES/

APRIL 18/WITH GOLD UP $3.65: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES

APRIL 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES/

April 16/WITH GOLD UP$2.80/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES/

April 13/WITH GOLD UP $6.15, A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.90 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES

April 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.40/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.99 TONNES

April 11/WITH GOLD UP $13.85/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859,99 TONNES

APRIL 10/WITH GOLD UP $5.25/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.99 TONNES

APRIL 9/WITH GOLD UP$4.50/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.99 TONNES

APRIL 6/WITH GOLD UP $7.50 ,A HUGE CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ A DEPOSIT OF 5.90 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.99 TONNES

APRIL 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.20 WE HAD TWO ENTRIES: 1) TINY WITHDRAWAL OF .28 TONNES TO PAY FOR FEES AND 2) A DEPOSIT OF 2.06 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.09 TONNES

April 4/WITH GOLD UP $2.90 WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.31 TONNES

APRIL 3./WITH GOLD DOWN $9.30 WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.31 TONNES

APRIL 2/WITH GOLD UP $19.50, WE HAD A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 6.19 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.31 TONNES

MARCH 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.20 AND OPTIONS EXPIRY FINISHED, WE HAD NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS A 846.12 TONNES

March 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.70, ANOTHER RAID ORCHESTRATED, AGAIN NO SURPRISES AS WE WITNESS ANOTHER 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD REMOVED/INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.12 TONNES

MARCH 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $11.70 AND A RAID INITIATED, IT WAS NO SURPRISE TO SEE THAT A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.24 TONNES WAS USED IN THE ABOVE RAID/INVENTORY RESTS AT 847.30 TONNES

MARCH 26./WITH GOLD UP $4.60/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 850.54 TONNES

MARCH 23/WITH GOLD UP $23.30/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 850.54 TONNES

MARCH 22.WITH GOLD UP $5.90, NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 850.54 TONNES/

MARCH 21/WITH GOLD UP $9.65 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 850.54 TONNES

March 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.75, A SURPRISING HUMONGOUS DEPOSIT OF 10.32 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 850.64 TONNES/

SO FAR, FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH, THE GLD HAS ADDED 19.61 TONNES WITH A NET LOSS OF $17.45

March 19/WITH GOLD UP $5.25: ANOTHER HUGE DEPOSIT OF GOLD TO THE TUNE OF 2.07 TONNES/GOLD INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 840.22 TONNES

MARCH 16/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.65/OUR CROOKS DEPOSITED ANOTHER 4.42 TONNES INTO GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 838.15 TONNES

FOR THE WEEK: GOLD LOST $11.80, BUT GOLD INVENTORY ADVANCED:4.42 TONNES

MARCH 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.85, NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.73 TONNES

MARCH 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.55/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.73 TONNES

MARCH 13/WITH GOLD UP $6.25/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.73 TONNES

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

APRIL 26/2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 871.20 tonnes

*IN LAST 370 TRADING DAYS: 69.84 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 320 TRADING DAYS: A NET 86.46 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO GLD INVENTORY.

end

Now the SLV Inventory/

APRIL 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENT/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316,899 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 25./WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.899 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 24./WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS/SOMETHING SPOOKED OUR CROOKS TO ADD SOME PAPER SILVER: A DEPOSIT OF 1.601 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.899 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 23.2018/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS, ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL FROM THE SLV INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.413 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.298 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.13 MILLION OZ//SLV RESTS TONIGHT AT 316.711 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 19/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: WE HAD A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.355 MILLION OZ/ MAKES ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE!!/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.841 MILLION OZ

APRIL 18/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ

APRIL 17/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ

April 16/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/

April 13/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ.

April 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/

April 11/2018/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 10/WITH GOLD UP 8 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 9/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS/WE HAD NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 6/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS, WE HAD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.319 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ

APRIL 5/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.877 MILLION OZ/

April 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS/A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A WITHRAWAL OF 135,000 OZ AND THIS IS PROBABLY TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.877 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 3./WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 2/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 29/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS, THE CROOKS DECIDED THAT THEY HAD BETTER ADD SOME 943,000 PAPER OZ TO THEIR INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ

March 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS/AGAIN NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ

MARCH 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 23/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS, A HAD A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.602 MILLION OZ.INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 22/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT, NO CHANGE IN SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.671 MILLION OZ/

March 21/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.671 MILLION OZ/

March 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.671 MILLION OZ/

March 19/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS, THE SLV ADDS A SMALL 659,000 OZ TO ITS INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.671 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ.

FOR THE WEEK; SILVER IS DOWN 42 CENTS YET ADDS 943,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/

MARCH 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 13/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ/

HAD ANOTHER HUGE ADDITION OF 1.315 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.590 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 26/2018: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:

Inventory 316.899 million oz

end

6 Month MM GOFO 2.03/ and libor 6 month duration 2.52

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0FO+ 2.03%

libor 2.52 FOR 6 MONTHS/

GOLD LENDING RATE: .49%

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.77%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.51

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE = +.26

end

Major gold/silver trading /commentaries for THURSDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.

GOLD/SILVER

Gold Price Increasingly Influenced By Declining Dollar Rather Than Interest Rates

Gold Price Gains Due To Declining Dollar Rather Than Interest Rates

– Investors should not be put off by higher interest rates, World Gold Council research finds they do not always have a negative impact on gold
– Only short-term movements in gold are ‘heavily influenced by US interest rates’
– Correlation between US interest rates and gold is waning, with US dollar a better indicator of short-term gold price
– New findings will reassure gold investors that there is no single driver of the gold price including interest rates and the myth of the “all powerful” central bank

Editor: Mark O’Byrne

What drives the gold price? There is no single answer to that question. It is a multiple of factors, all of which vary in their influence depending on an even greater number of factors.

According to latest research from the World Gold Council, there are two factors in the short and medium-term that attract investors’ attention the most: the US dollar and US interest rates.

One overriding belief by gold market commentators and observers is that the direction of the US dollar carries a greater impact on the gold price than US interest rates.

This is understandable given gold’s consistently negative correlation to the US dollar.

However, we have all noticed how gold has only reacted positively since the Federal Reserve has been hiking rates since last December – increasing by 8.5%.

So should we therefore assume that US interest rates do in fact matter more to the direction of the gold price?

There is no straight forward answer says the World Gold Council. ‘Generally’ the US dollar matters most to the precious metal’s price movements, ‘but there are exceptions to this rule’.

Gold and interest rates: a negative correlation

It makes sense that gold and interest rates should be negatively correlated. One is seen as the opportunity cost of another. Between 2013 and 2017 the negative correlation was strong:

‘[This] was likely a result of the strong influence that US monetary policy was exerting across global markets. This period coincided with a shift in investor expectations of US monetary policy from being very accommodative to moving towards normalisation.’

Conversely, higher rates are not always linked to higher prices

We are always quick to assume that US interest rate changes will begin to affect the price of gold. But consider the variety of demands involved in the gold market: jewellery, or technological demands- are they all influenced by US interest rates? The chances are, no.

‘US interest rates do not necessarily influence the behaviour of global consumers of gold jewellery or of technology demand. Nor do they affect the behaviour of investors outside the US for whom local interest rates matter more than US rates’

Interestingly the WGC research finds that whilst gold does react best to negative US interest rates, they can remain below 2.5% (significantly higher than today) and average gold returns remain positive.

‘Falling rates are generally linked to higher gold prices; yet rising rates are not always linked to lower prices.’

Take the above with a pinch of salt

These findings with a pinch of salt. There are so many factors that affect the price of gold that investors should not focus on the policies and currency of one country to determine their buying and selling decisions.

The WGC finds four broad categories which affect the price of gold. It is interactions between these categories that affect the performance of the precious metal.

Wealth and economic expansion: periods of growth are very supportive of jewellery, technology, and long-term savings

Market risk and uncertainty: market downturns often boost investment demand for gold as a safe haven

Opportunity cost: the price of competing assets such as bonds (through interest rates), currencies and other assets influence investor attitudes towards gold

Momentum and positioning: capital flows and price trends can ignite or dampen gold’s performance.

When it comes to gold’s long-term trend, the lobbying group finds that:

‘drivers related to wealth and economic expansion are generally more relevant for gold’s long-term trend. And drivers linked to the other three categories play a significant role in gold’s countercyclical behaviour.’

The US dollar will overtake rates when it comes to influence on gold price

In our view, one of the reasons the dollar will overtake rates to explain the direction of the gold price, is that movements in the dollar already reflect inflation expectations of monetary policy in the US. At the same time, they also reflect expectations of interest rate differentials between the US and major economies, as well as investors’ views on trade imbalances – all factors that are currently relevant for gold.

There is an ‘asymmetric correlation’ between gold prices and the US dollar. Why? Because not everyone pays for their gold in US dollars. Local currency movements impact demand more.

Thus, gold’s behaviour is best understood as a broad fiat currency hedge rather than simply a dollar hedge. This is apparent in periods when major currencies weaken, and investors buy gold to hedge that risk – for example, during the European sovereign debt crisis. In such instances, gold and the dollar have tended to move in sync, with both benefiting from safe haven inflows.

This further explains why the uncertain times ahead due to heightened geopolitical risk are likely to see further gold price gains. Even if the dollar strengthens on announcement of war in Syria (for example) we may still see the price of gold rise.

Read the original research here.

Recommended reading

Four Key Themes To Drive Gold Prices In 2018 – World Gold Council

Stock Market Selloff Showed Gold Can Reduce Portfolio Risk

Gold Does Not Fear Interest Rate Hikes

News and Commentary

Gold hovers near 5-wk lows amid dollar pressure, rising yields (Reuters.com)

Asian Stocks Mixed as Tech Rises; Dollar Steady (Bloomberg.com)

Gold prices could ‘test five year highs’ later this year: Researcher (CNBC.com)

Ex-UBS Metals Trader Beats Spoofing Conspiracy Charge (Bloomberg.com)

Deutsche Bank to Reduce Investment Banking in Focus on Europe (Bloomberg.com)

Central Bankers Can’t Agree on Cryptocurrencies (Bloomberg.com)

Debt-Enabled Asset-Bubbles Are On A Crash With Demographics (ZeroHedge.com)

It’s 2-Year Yields, Not 10-Years, We Worry About Most (ZeroHedge.com)

Gold prices could ‘test five year highs’ later this year (CNBC.com)

ABN Amro: Geo-politics and sanctions support commodities (Abnamro.nl)

Andrew Maguire’s Kinesis money which is a “bitcoin” but backed 100% by allocated gold and silver is set to go.

it think it would be a great idea to look at this!

please read at: https://kinesis.money/#/

(Andrew Maguire)

Andrew Maguire

2:57 PM (1 hour ago)

to me

Harvey

Here It is my friend! https://kinesis.money/#/ Please let everyone know.

Let catch up on Monday if you have time. We have billions in the hopper ready to be allocated on the 1^st day of trading. The paper market days are over.

Warm regards

Andy

END

Movement of earmarked gold and no doubt that the gold is heading to Turkey

(Harvey)

Federal reserve bank of NY earmarked gold departures:

On Friday, A Turkish reporter commented that Turkey repatriated 29 tonnes of gold this year.

Normally we get an announcement from the FRBNY that a nation wants it’s gold back.

With respect to Germany they announced that they wanted their gold and it took 3 years for them to get it back

Holland wanted its 122 tonnes of gold back and it seemed to have arrived from Libya. Very little of Holland’s gold arrived from NY

For the entire 2017 the earmarked gold in NY remained the same i.e. nothing moved

However in 2018 something strange. He have earmarked gold moving and this is without an announcement. No doubt that this is Turkish gold:

In January 2018: ear marked gold moved 5 million oz at $42.22 per oz.

thus 118,427 oz of gold left NY or 3.68 tonnes

in February: 2018: earmarked gold moved 16 million oz at $42.22 per oz

thus 378,967 oz left NY for greener pastures or 11.787 tonnes

we get March’s reading on the 29th of the month of April.

total gold left in 2018 so far: 15.467 tonnes

END

For some inexplicable reason, the Government chose to drop all charges against Flotron except the spoofing and that is what the acquittal was based on

(courtesy Bloomberg/GATA)

Ex-UBS metals trader beats spoofing conspiracy charge

Submitted by cpowell on Wed, 2018-04-25 16:13. Section: Daily Dispatches

By Christie Smythe
Bloomberg News
Wednesday, April 25, 2018

If anything is more precious than gold, it might be an acquittal.

A former UBS Group AG precious metals trader was found not guilty on Wednesday of scheming to manipulate futures markets through a practice known as spoofing.

Andre Flotron, 54, was cleared by a federal jury in New Haven, Connecticut, of a single count of conspiracy to engage in commodities fraud. It was the first acquital in a spoofing-related case. He could have faced as long as 25 years in prison if convicted.

“We’re extremely pleased with the jury’s verdict,” Flotron’s defense attorney Marc Mukasey said. “Justice has been done.” …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-25/ex-ubs-metals-trader-…

END

The higher dollar is having its effect on commodities including gold and silver

(courtesy Craig Hemke/Sprott Money/GATA)

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: The soaring dollar crushes the commodity rally

Submitted by cpowell on Wed, 2018-04-25 20:41. Section: Daily Dispatches

By Craig Hemke
Sprott Money, Toronto
Wednesday, April 25, 2018

Just last week it appeared that a general rally in commodities was underway.

Gold, silver, the base metals, and crude oil were all soaring. But now, less than one week later, prices are falling sharply. And why?

Blame the high-frequency traders who trade the digital derivative contracts.

They’ve “seen” the sudden, sharp rally in the U.S. dollar and they have been quick to dump their metals exposure as quickly as they bought it last week. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/the-soaring-dollar-crushes-the-commodit…

end

Simon Black comments on gold:

very few gold discoveries in this last decade so supply of gold diminishes
inflation is raring its ugly read

(courtesy Simon Black/SovereignMan.com)

Simon Black On “The Coming Boom In Gold Prices…”

Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

In June 1884, a local farmer named Jan Gerritt Bantjes discovered gold on his property in a quiet corner of the South African Republic.

Though no one had any idea at the time, Bantjes’ farm was located on a vast geological formation known as the Witwatersrand Basin… which just happens to contain the world’s largest known gold reserves.

Within a few months, other local farmers started discovering gold… kicking off a full-fledged gold rush.

Just over a decade later, South Africa became the largest gold producer in the world… and the city of Johannesburg grew from absolutely nothing to a thriving boomtown.

This area is singlehandedly responsible for 40% of all the gold discovered in human history – some 2 billion ounces (or $2.6 trillion of wealth at today’s gold price).

And while the Witwatersrand Basin is still being mined to this day, it’s not as active as it used to be.

Gold production in Witwatersrand peaked in 1970, when miners pulled a whopping 1,000 metric tons of gold out of the ground.

A few decades later in 2016, the same area produced just 166 tonnes– a decline of 83%.

That’s not unusual in the natural resource business.

Whereas it takes nature hundreds of millions of years to deposit minerals deep in the earth’s crust, human beings only require a few decades to pull most of it out.

This creates the constant need for mining companies to explore for more and more major discoveries.

Problem is– that’s not happening. Mining companies aren’t finding anymore vast deposits.

According to Pierre Lassonde, founder of the gold royalty giant Franco-Nevada and former head of Newmont Mining–

If you look back to the 70s, 80s and 90s, in every one of those decades, the industry found at least one 50+ million-ounce gold deposit, at least ten 30+ million ounce deposits, and countless 5 to 10 million ounce deposits.

But if you look at the last 15 years, we found no 50-million-ounce deposit, no 30 million ounce deposit and only very few 15 million ounce deposits.

So where are those great big deposits we found in the past? How are they going to be replaced? We don’t know.

Bottom line: gold discoveries are dwindling.

Part of the reason for this is that mining companies aren’t investing as much money in exploration.

According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, major mining companies (excluding those in the iron ore business) have been cutting their exploration budgets for years.

By the end of 2016, exploration budgets hit an 11-year low.

And this has clearly had an effect on new discoveries.

This is all because the gold price has been relatively flat for the past several years.

Investors have lost interest. And the mining companies, eager to cut costs, have pared back their exploration budgets as a result.

But this is where it gets interesting: natural resources are cyclical. They go through extreme periods of BOOM and BUST.

When gold prices are high, major mining companies scramble for new discoveries.

Eventually when they start mining those deposits, though, the supply of gold increases, pushing prices down.

As the price falls, the miners’ profit margins fall, which causes investors to lose interest and the miners to reduce production.

This causes supply to fall, prices to increase, and the cycle starts all over again.

In a way it’s almost comical. And that brings us to today. Well, technically yesterday.

We’ve been seeing for more than a year that interest rates have been rising.

Yesterday afternoon the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note surpassed 3% for the first time since 2014.

And oil prices have been rising steadily as well.

Financial markets don’t like this combination– it means that inflation is coming. Big time. And stocks plummeted worldwide as a result.

Now, that immediate reaction was probably a bit too panicky.

But the deep concern that inflation is coming (or has already arrived) is completely valid.

Inflation is a HUGE problem. And the traditional hedge in times of inflation is GOLD.

But remember– new gold discoveries have collapsed in the past 15 years.

And, as Lassonde said above, there are few discoveries on the horizon to make up the difference.

These companies can’t just go out and start a new mine, either. Even if they found a promising deposit, with all of the bureaucratic red tape, it would take seven to nine years to start producing gold.

So when demand for gold really starts to heat up, the supply won’t be there.

And this could really cause the gold price to soar. (Silver could rise even more… but we’ll save that for another time.)

Now, there are plenty of small, highly speculative companies, known as ‘junior miners’ who specialize in exploring for new deposits.

And when the gold market is in a frenzy, juniors with great deposits tend to be acquired at ridiculous prices by the major miners.

Now, I’m not suggesting you load up on junior miners– you can make a lot of money if you know what you’re doing, and LOSE a lot of money if you don’t know what you’re doing.

These are tiny, extremely high-risk companies often run by sharks and con-men.

As Doug Casey writes in his novel Speculator, they’re great and taking YOUR money and THEIR dream, and turning it into THEIR money and YOUR dream.

Fortunately there are safer ways to take advantage of this looming imbalance between supply and demand in the gold market.

Physical coins are an easy option.

Gold coins typically sell at a price that’s higher than the market price of gold– to account for the work involved in minting the coin.

This price difference is known as the ‘premium’.

And when gold becomes popular, the premiums often increase too.

This means you can make money both from the rise in gold prices, as well as the increased premiums.

Avoid anything obscure– stick to the most popular gold coins like Canadian Maple Leafs.

And to continue learning how to ensure you thrive no matter what happens next in the world, I encourage you to download our free Perfect Plan B Guide.

_________________

___________________________________________________________________

Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results, important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED DOWN 6.3238 /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 42.94 POINTS OR 1.38% / HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 104.29 POINTS OR 0.47%
2. Nikkei closed UP 104.29 POINTS OR 0.47%/ /USA: YEN FALLS TO 109.20/

3. Europe stocks OPENED GREEN /USA dollar index FALLS TO 91.10/Euro RISES TO 1.2182

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO . +.06/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 109.10/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD FINALLY IN THE POSITIVE/BANK OF JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR YIELD CURVE AS THEY PURCHASE ALL BONDS TO GET TO ZERO RATE!!

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 68.45 and Brent: 74.53

3f Gold UP/Yen UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.61%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 1.76% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 1.28%

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 3.94?????????????????

3k Gold at $1325.20 silver at:16.58 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 39/100 in roubles/dollar) 62.05

3m oil into the 68 dollar handle for WTI and 74 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.10 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9832 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1977 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to +0.61%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 3.00% early this morning (THIS IS DEADLY TO ALL MARKETS). Thirty year rate at 3.19% /

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)

Stocks Rebound As 10Y Slides Back Under 3%; All Eyes On Draghi

Markets have slowed down modestly ahead of today’s key event, the ECB’s monetary policy decision and Draghi press conference, which will likely feature repeated versions of the same question: how worried is the ECB president? From sagging business confidence to falling industrial output, the region seems to be losing economic momentum after the best performance in a decade last year. We did a full ECB preview overnight; the summary scenario analysis of what to expect is shown below:

Meanwhile, despite generally muted volumes, there has been a lot of action with European stocks rising after an early drop amid a deluge of earnings, while Asian stocks were mixed led lower by selling out of China as investors digested the latest flood of company earnings, including a blockbuster beat by Facebook overnight.

The Stoxx 600 was up 0.5%%, nearing its 200-DMA which was tested earlier this week. Energy stocks gained ground, helped by rising oil prices and good quarterly results from a number of companies. Utilities showing strength (+0.9%) with the energy sector underperforming (-0.5%) following Shell earnings (-2.5%). Conversely with positive results for Total (+0.6%), Telefonica (+0.1%) and Volkswagen (+3%) but negative results for Deutsche Bank (+0.3%) and Roche (-0.1%%).

Asian stocks were generally downbeat, despite strength from the Nikkei 225 (+0.5%) which was underpinned by recent JPY weakness while the KOSPI (+1.1%) was the biggest gainer amid optimism ahead of tomorrow’s inter-Korean summit and after tech giant Samsung Electronics released its Q1 final results. Elsewhere, the Shanghai Comp. (-1.3%) and Hang Seng (-1.0%) were downbeat amid the backdrop of rising money market rates and another substantial consecutive net liquidity drain of CNY 150bln by the PBoC while tech stocks continued to reel from an FBI probe into Huawei.

Despite yesterday’s huge beat by Facebook, which sent its share 7% higher after hours, US equity futures were only modestly in the green.

The big story of the early half of the week, the level of the benchmark 10Y Treasury, fluctuated and recently dipped back under 3% as oil climbed. As Bloomberg adds, TSY futures rallied after early block trades, similar seen in bund futures as curves flatten; Open Interest changes hint that yesterdays huge German/UST 5s10s box trade was a new risk trade.

Meanwhile, the dollar hovered at a three-month high, although it has followed the 10Y lower and was trading at session lows. The biggest decliner versus the greenback was the krona after the Riksbank delayed its tightening; the Swedish currency touched its weakest level since December 2009 against the euro after the decision (more below).

In other FX news, the euro halted the previous day’s decline versus the dollar and inched higher from an almost two-month low. The common currency has weakened on each of the past four Draghi press conferences, and charts and trader positioning suggest it may do so again on Thursday on a dovish tone; ECB President will speak at 2:30pm Frankfurt time.

In notable central bank announcements, the Swedish Riksbank kept its overnight Rate unchanged at -0.50% as expected, however it surprised the market by announcing the rate will begin to increase towards the end of the year which is somewhat later than forecast previously. Underlying inflation has been somewhat lower than expected recently, which raises questions regarding the strength of the development in inflation. Deputy Ohlsson dissented at keeping the interest rate unchanged, advocating a hike to -0.25%

In key geopolitical news overnight, South Korea said that President Moon will meet with North Korea leader Kim at the border on Friday at 0930 local time In related news, there were also comments from a BoK official that any economic cooperation with North Korea will bolster South Korean consumer sentiment. Separately, French President Macron said he thinks US President Trump will not want US to remain in Iran nuclear deal based on prior statements.

In Brexit news, UK PM May is said to issue a wish list of her trade demands for a Brexit trade deal. UK PM May has held a cabinet meeting with Conservative Brexiteers whereby she was asked to stick to her plan of making a clean
break from the EU.

WTI and Brent crude futures sit in modest positive territory, continuing yesterday’s recovery. Prices remain firmer in spite of the latest DoE release which had an overall bearish impact on the market as traders continue to assess the plausibility of the US re-imposing sanctions upon Iran as well as declines in Venezuelan oil output. In metals markets, spot gold trades with little in the way of firm direction and in close proximity to 5-week lows as a firmer USD keeps a lid on gains for the precious metal. Elsewhere, aluminium has continued to face selling pressure in London amid the fallout from the latest updates for Rusal, whilst Chinese steel futures were supported overnight by domestic construction demand.

Economic data on Thursday include initial jobless claims, durable goods orders. PepsiCo, Bristol-Myers Squibb, General Motors and Intel are among companies due to release results.

Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk

Equity markets largely subdued after negative trading on Wednesday ahead of ECB’s rate decision
SEK at eight year lows, however, following Riksbank rolling back rate hike expectations
Looking ahead, highlights include, ECB’s rate decision and press conference, US durables, weekly jobs,
advanced goods trade balance and a slew of earnings

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures down 0.06% to 2,643.00
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.5% to 381.95
MXAP down 0.06% to 171.77
MXAPJ down 0.2% to 556.79
Nikkei up 0.5% to 22,319.61
Topix up 0.3% to 1,772.13
Hang Seng Index down 1.1% to 30,007.68
Shanghai Composite down 1.4% to 3,075.03
Sensex up 0.3% to 34,593.88
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 5,910.77
Kospi up 1.1% to 2,475.64
German 10Y yield fell 1.5 bps to 0.619%
Euro up 0.1% to $1.2177
Brent Futures up 0.5% to $74.33/bbl
Italian 10Y yield rose 1.0 bps to 1.523%
Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.1 bps to 1.291%
Brent Futures up 0.5% to $74.33/bbl
Gold spot up 0.03% to $1,323.59
U.S. Dollar Index up 0.03% to 91.20

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

Mario Draghi’s press conference on Thursday may well feature repeated versions of the same question: how worried is he? From sagging business confidence to falling industrial output, the region seems to be losing economic momentum after the best performance in a decade last year
French President Emmanuel Macron said he thinks U.S. President Donald Trump will withdraw from the Iran nuclear accord, dealing a blow to the six-nation agreement reached in 2015 and endorsed by world powers
Fox News says Trump will join “Fox & Friends” at 8:00 a.m. New York time for an interview
The European Union will begin surveillance of aluminum imports as part of a plan for possible curbs resulting from the controversial U.S. tariff imposed last month
Brexit-backing Conservatives held private talks with U.K. PM Theresa May to demand that she sticks to her plan for a clean break with the EU; At the Tuesday meeting, May reassured euroskeptics she will deliver the kind of Brexit they want, according to two people familiar with the conversation
The Riksbank again pushed back a plan to raise interest rates, announcing on Thursday they don’t see a tightening until “towards the end of the year,” while also holding their key rate at minus 0.5%
This was a delay from their previous assessment that they could see tighter policy by the second half of this year
China is considering proposals to cut import duty on passenger cars by about half, according to people with direct knowledge of the matter, a move that’s set to give a lift particularly to luxury-car makers such as BMW AG and Toyota Motor Corp.’s Lexus unit
Deutsche Bank AG’s new chief executive officer can claim his first success. The European Central Bank has granted Germany’s largest lender an exemption from rules limiting how it can use funds at its Postbank retail subsidiary, a bank spokesman confirmed on Wednesday

The major Asia-Pac bourses traded mixed as markets failed to fully benefit from a mild tailwind after the gains in Wall St and as focus across global stock markets turned to a deluge of earnings. Nikkei 225 (+0.5%) was underpinned by recent JPY weakness and with Tokyo Electron the outperformer after its FY net firmly topped estimates, while the KOSPI (+1.1%) was the biggest gainer amid optimism ahead of tomorrow’s inter-Korean summit and after tech giant Samsung Electronics released its Q1 final results. Elsewhere, ASX 200 (-0.2%) was indecisive as Australia also reflected on the broad weakness during the prior day’s holiday closure, while Shanghai Comp. (-1.3%) and Hang Seng (-1.0%) were downbeat amid the backdrop of rising money market rates and another substantial consecutive net liquidity drain of CNY 150bln by the PBoC. Finally, 10yr JGBs were quiet with markets focused on earnings releases and amid a lack of Rinban announcement. Furthermore, the BoJ also kick-started its 2-day policy meeting today in which the central bank is expected to maintain policy settings, while focus would also be on the forecasts in the Outlook Report and whether there will be any changes to inflation estimates with the inclusion of the newly appointed Deputy Governors including known-reflationist Wakatabe. China MOFCOM repeated its opposition to unilateralism and protectionism, while it added that some Chinese firms have given up on the US market amid uncertainty. In other news, a China MIIT official said China is working on a significant tariff reduction for auto imports, while there were also reports that China is mulling lowering car import tariffs to 10% or 15% from the current 25%, with a decision possibly as early as next month

Top Asian News

Komatsu Full Year Operating Income Forecast Misses Estimates
Nomura Holdings 4Q Net Income 22.7b Yen
Nippon Steel’s Operating Profit Misses Estimate, Stock Drops
Philippine Bank of Communications Elects New Treasurer
Tencent Wipeout Topping $118 Billion Reveals Depth of Tech Gloom
SoftBank Names Ex-Goldman, Japan Post Bank Executive to Board

European equities (Eurostoxx 50+0.2%, DAX flat) trade with little in the way of firm direction as traders await today’s ECB meeting (albeit fireworks expected from the event); IBEX (+0.4%) and FTSE MIB (+0.5%) outperform. Utilities showing strength (+0.9%) with the energy sector underperforming (-0.5%) following Shell earnings (-2.5%). Conversely with positive results for Total (+0.6%), Telefonica (+0.1%) and Volkswagen (+3%) but negative results for Deutsche Bank (+0.3%) and Roche (-0.1%%). Looking ahead for Shire at 12:00 today, which may give some indication on the Takeda news

Top European News

Iberdrola Turns a Takeover War With Enel Into an EU Problem
BP Brings in Former BG Boss Lund to Succeed Svanberg as Chairman
Lufthansa Falls on Fare Drop, Cost of Assets From Air Berlin
Barclays Trading Gives Staley Momentum, But Misconduct Bites
Telefonica First-Quarter Sales Drop as Spain Recovery Not Enough
Nokia Sales Miss Estimates as Network Market Slump Persists

In currencies, the DXY continues to grind higher above the 91.000 level and eke out more fresh multi-month highs amidst widespread Dollar gains vs counterparts. 91.300 or so is the latest peak, as the DXY inches closer to then next upside technical targets circa 91.500 and then 91.750. CHF/GBP/CAD/NZD/AUD: All softer vs the Greenback, with Usd/Chf only a few pips below 0.9850 resistance, while Cable has breached the top of a support zone straddling 1.3900 to extend its sharp reversal from April highs (1.4377) and further undermine bullish seasonal dynamics, plus M&A factors that had been boosting the Pound. Usd/Cad towards the upper end of a relatively tight 1.2825-60 range with overriding Dollar strength marginally outweighing Loonie support from near term NAFTA deal expectations. Nzd/Usd looking more vulnerable just above 0.7050 as the Aud/Nzd cross climbs over 1.0700 and Aud/Usd derives a degree of traction from above forecast Aussie export/import price data overnight. EUR/JPY: The single currency has survived a stern test of support vs the Usd around 1.2155 to trade back up near the top of its trading parameters (1.2190), awaiting fresh/independent impetus from the ECB and still gleaning some direction from mega 1.2200 option expiries that run off later today. Usd/Jpy firmer above 109.00 between 109.25-50 amidst latest month end rebalancing models indicating a Jpy sell signal and with the BoJ not seen altering its easy/dovish stance at the culmination of the 2-day meeting early Friday

In commodities, WTI and Brent crude futures sit in modest positive territory (albeit off best levels) broadly continuing yesterday’s recovery. Prices remain firmer in spite of the latest DoE release which had an overall bearish impact on the market as traders continue to assess the plausibility of the US re-imposing sanctions upon Iran as well as declines in Venezuelan oil output. In metals markets, spot gold trades with little in the way of firm direction and in close proximity to 5-week lows as a firmer USD keeps a lid on gains for the precious metal. Elsewhere, aluminium has continued to face selling pressure in London amid the fallout from the latest updates for Rusal, whilst Chinese steel futures were supported overnight by domestic construction demand.

Looking at the day ahead, the highlight will be the ECB meeting just after midday followed by President Draghi’s media briefing shortly after. The BOE’s Brazier and ECB’s Nouy will also speak. Data due out includes Germany consumer confidence for May and US initial jobless claims, March advance goods trade balance and flash durable and capital goods orders data for March. Amazon, Microsoft, Total, Intel, Royal Dutch Shell and Volkswagen are notable earnings releases due out.

US Event Calendar

8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 230,000, prior 232,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.85m, prior 1.86m
8:30am: Durable Goods Orders, est. 1.6%, prior 3.0%; Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.5%, prior 1.0%
8:30am: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.46%, prior 1.4%; Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.3%, prior 1.4%
8:30am: Retail Inventories MoM, prior 0.4%, revised 0.4%; Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.65%, prior 1.0%
9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 58.1
11am: Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. 17, prior 17

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Morning from Helsinki, it’s been a busy tour of the region but I did manage to watch the astonishing game of football on Tuesday night. I’m still recovering. Meanwhile bond markets aren’t really recovering even with what has been a negative risk reaction this week to the rising yield environment. Obviously our pieces highlighted at the top give chapter and verse on this theme so we won’t go into detail here but it is quite clear in 2018 that US treasuries are struggling to rally in risk off environments. That I think shows the direction of travel at the moment. The US 10y held above 3% yesterday and ended the day at 3.027% (just above 3.03% in Asia) with the latest move meaning that yields have risen for seven consecutive sessions which is the joint longest run since mid-April 2016.

Yields are up 29bps since early April and as discussed it appears that equity and credit markets are struggling a bit in the face of that. Having said that the Dow (+0.25%) climbed back into the close to rise for the first time in six days yesterday. The reaction to what is a good headline US earnings season continued to be mixed with Twitter (-2.4%) lower although Boeing rose +4.2% after it raised this year’s earnings forecasts. However, in after hours trading Facebook jumped around 7% after its results, while Visa and Qualcomm was up c3% and c2% respectively following their above market quarterly results.

Before these late results the S&P 500 also recovered from earlier losses to close slightly higher (+0.18%), but is comfortably in the red YTD (-1.28%) again after this past week. The Nasdaq (-0.05% yesterday) is still holding its head above water for 2018. European bourses weakened further yesterday (Stoxx -0.77%; DAX -1.02%; FTSE -0.62%) and EM equities also appeared to be showing signs of stress with the MSCI EM index closing last night -1.21% down. The US dollar index firmed 0.45% to a fresh 3 month high while the Euro and Sterling fell -0.59% and -0.33% respectively. Elsewhere, Gold (-0.54%) and the Yen (-0.56%) seemed to be absent from any safe haven flows. Credit indices widened modestly in Europe but tightened in the US (Main +1bp; CDX IG -0.7bp) reflecting the late day rebound in equities.

This morning in Asia, markets are trading mixed with the Kospi up +1.25% as Samsung’s result beat expectations, while the Nikkei is up +0.59% and Hang Seng (-0.70%) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.92%) are both down as we type. The futures on the S&P are up c0.3%.

The next test for the bond market will likely come with this afternoon’s ECB meeting, followed closely by President Draghi’s press conference. Our European economists (link) expect the “dovish exit” strategy to remain intact. They expect the ECB to retain confidence in the above-trend growth despite the recent loss of momentum (although the PMIs and Bank Lending survey this week should install confidence) and they expect the optimism – which increasingly extends to inflation – to remain conditional on the ECB being patient, persistent and prudent with stimulus. They also expect the ECB to signal ample monetary stimulus after QE ends.

In light of a core unchanged message then, the risk is that Draghi errs on the side of caution today. As our colleagues point out, the ECB is already highlighting the relative importance of policy rates and guidance post-QE. Draghi recently said that policy adjustments would proceed at a “measured pace” and conditional on the scale of the inflation gap and the uncertainties around the output gap and wages. The team expects Draghi to repeat this in the Q&A, but a more dovish outcome would be inserting “measured pace” into the press statement to strengthen forward guidance. Another dovish move would be recognition of risks by “monitoring” economic developments. Our economists still expect the ECB to pre-announce in June that QE will end in December after a taper in Q4, but the risk is that the ECB waits until July to announce something. A one-month delay shouldn’t impact the prospect of a likely Q4 taper though. Beyond this and as a reminder, DB’s base case is for the first policy rate hike to come in June 2019 – a 20bp deposit rate hike and 25bp refi rate hike. A second hike is forecast for December 2019. Today’s ECB meeting outcome is at 12.45pm BST and Draghi is due to speak at 1.30pm BST.

Ahead of today’s ECB meeting, two policy makers were quoted yesterday as sounding fairly upbeat despite some signs of softer data in recent weeks. The comments, published by Eurofi, came from Board Member Mersch and Governing Council member Vasiliauskas. Mersch was quoted as saying that “confidence has recently risen and convergence is being confirmed – partly because the temporary decline in the inflation rate has been weaker than our internal calculations had predicted”. Vasiliauskas was also noted as saying that “we have witnessed the strengthening of broad-based growth and steadily declining unemployment, providing conditions for inflation convergence to our objective” and that “this has increased my confidence that it is time to transition from the APP”.

Closer to home, Brexit headlines are likely to be back in vogue today with the UK government facing a motion vote in the House of Commons called by senior MPs on the UK’s future participation in the EU customs union. The motion calls for the government to change its position to seek an effective customs union with the EU27 after Brexit. DB’s Oliver Harvey highlighted in his report yesterday that the vote is non-binding and a government defeat does not represent a no confidence vote and will not result in a resignation from PM May. He highlights however that if the government were to lose, it may cast doubt on its ability to proceed with the legislation necessary to implement Brexit, in particular amendments to the UK withdrawal bill made by the House of Lords this week, and the government’s Trade and Customs Bill which is set to be voted on next month. So worth keeping an eye on. See Oli’s report for a lot more detail on the latest Brexit news.

Turning to trade, the FT reported President Trump will dispatch Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Trade representative Lighthizer to China next week to discuss trade relations. Trump noted there was a “very good chance of making a deal” but warned that he would continue with plans for new tariffs if no progress was made.

Finally, our European team now believe the Euro area GDP has grown 0.4% qoq in Q1, rather than the 0.6% qoq growth they had pencilled in previously. While growth was expected to lose momentum in 2018 and 2019, they argue that temporary factors such as adverse weather conditions might have added some volatility in Q1. In order to map the signals coming from high-frequency monthly data into a real time estimate of GDP growth, they have built several “Now-Casting” models. These point to growth in the range of 0.4-0.5% qoq in Q1. Please see their note for more details. There were limited data releases from yesterday. In France, the April consumer confidence edged up 1pt mom to 101 (vs. 100 expected).

Looking at the day ahead, the highlight will be the ECB meeting just after midday followed by President Draghi’s media briefing shortly after. The BOE’s Brazier and ECB’s Nouy will also speak. Data due out includes Germany consumer confidence for May and US initial jobless claims, March advance goods trade balance and flash durable and capital goods orders data for March. Amazon, Microsoft, Total, Intel, Royal Dutch Shell and Volkswagen are notable earnings releases due out.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

North Korea/South Korea

Leaders to meet tomorrow

(courtesy zerohedge)

Leaders Of Two Koreas Will Meet Friday Morning At The DMZ

In a meeting that’s widely viewed as a preamble to a historic summit involving President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, the leaders of the two Korea’s – North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and South Korean President Moon Jae-in – are preparing to meet at the border at 9:30 am local time on Friday.

Friday’s summit will take place in the Peace House in in the border town of Panmunjom, located in the heart of the demilitarized zone.

Im Jong-seok, the chief of staff for President Moon, provided a full itinerary of the meeting – which will involve the ceremonial planting of a pine tree on the border – to Bloomberg:

Kim to walk across border to South
Kim to review South Korean military’s honor guard after walking together with Moon
Moon, Kim to start summit at 10:30am local time Friday
Moon, Kim to have lunch separately after morning meeting
Moon, Kim to plant pine tree on border after lunch
Moon, Kim to walk together around border before afternoon session
Two Koreas to sign, announce agreements after summit
Moon to host banquet for Kim from 6:30pm at peace house
No Plan to extend summit to Saturday for now
S. Korea: undecided whether Kim’s wife will accompany; hopes Kim’s wife to join dinner
Kim Jong Un’s sister part of North Korean delegation
S. Korea says issues related to denuclearization can’t be fully resolved at the inter-Korean summit; S. Korea would consider the summit a success if the North’s intention of denuclearization is included in the agreement

Meanwhile, South Korean Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha credited President Trump with bringing the two Korean leaders together for Friday’s summit during an interview with CNN’s Christiane Amanpour that’s slated to air Thursday night.

“Clearly, credit goes to President Trump,” Kang told CNN’s Christiane Amanpour in Seoul. “He’s been determined to come to grips with this from day one.”

During the summit, Kim will become the first North Korean leader to cross the DMZ.

The detente between the two countries was an unexpected – but welcome – development, Kang said, for which President Moon also deserves credit. According to her, the combination of tough rhetoric and sanctions was key in bringing the North to the table.

Kang told Amanpour that the détente was unexpected. “I think we’re all surprised. Obviously pleasantly surprised. I think by all indications we are headed towards a very successful summit between my president and Chairman Kim tomorrow.”

She said that Moon’s determination also played a role in the thaw. In her analysis, the combination of tough rhetoric and economic and travel sanctions were instrumental.

President Trump’s rhetoric, of course, has shifted on North Korea as a summit became a more real possibility.

In August, he threatened “fire and fury like the world has never seen.” In September, he said “Rocket Man s on a suicide mission.” This week, he said that Kim Jong-un had been “very open and I think very honorable.”

Kang admitted Presidents Moon and Trump have at times had “different messaging,” but insisted that they maintained close consultations.

At the end, the message was North Korea will not be accepted — never be accepted as a nuclear power.”

Kang said that, if the two leaders can produce a written statement of understanding “on a broad set of issues”, then the meeting would be considered a success.

When asked what would constitute success for President Moon’s summit with Kim, Kang suggested a joint statement of understanding “on a broad set of issues” including denuclearization, peace, and relations between the two countries.

“If we can get — put in writing the North Korean leader’s commitment to denuclearization, that would be a very solid outcome.” She said that it would be “unrealistic” to expect sudden movement toward a formal peace treaty between the two countries.

They have formally been at war since the 1950s, restrained only by an armistice agreement. “You need to create the reality of peace by removing hostilities… And then when there is sufficient confidence on both sides, then you are ready to sign a peace treaty.” Sanctions on North Korea, she said, will not be eased until Kim takes “visible, meaningful steps” toward denuclearization.

Trump reaffirmed earlier during an interview with Fox News that, while there’s still a chance the US-North Korea talks might not happen, the two sides had picked out three possible dates and five possible locations for the summit.

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

end

c) REPORT ON CHINA/HONG KONG

China’s big worry: North Korea unifies with the South and becomes a strong USA ally with missiles pointing toward Beijing

(courtesy zerohedge)

As Trade War Escalates, China Fears Being “Outflanked” By US In North Korea

Until very recently, China’s paramount worry regarding the Korean Peninsula involved the possibility that the “cold” war that has endured since the 1953 armistice could might erupt into an all-out nuclear conflict.

But since Kim Jong Un signaled his willingness to negotiate with the US and consider abandoning its nuclear program, China has become more concerned about a suddenly US-allied North Korean reunifying with the South – or worse, pointing its missiles toward Beijing.

Ahead of talks between South Korean President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un set to begin Friday – talks that are widely viewed as a preamble to negotiations with Trump expected to take place roughly one month later – the Financial Times reported Wednesday that China is worried about being outflanked by the US in the ongoing battle of influence over the peninsula that started with the Korean War.

“Any bilateral deals could take place at China’s expense if Beijing doesn’t have a seat at the table,” said Zheng Yongnian, director of the East Asian Institute at the National University of Singapore and an expert on Chinese foreign policy.

The paranoia gripping Beijing is being articulated by China’s cohort of geopolitical analysts, whose public views often mirror the privately-held beliefs of China’s leadership. Since the US and North Korea first announced their intentions to engage in diplomatic talks, China has expressed cautious optimism over the prospects for a peaceful outcome. But Chinese officials have also insisted that the dialogue be replaced with the resumption of negotiations between Moscow, Beijing, Seoul, Tokyo and Washington – also known as the “six-party talks” – which were last held in 2007.

“Many Chinese experts are worried about a re-unified Korea with a security alliance relationship with the United States and with US troops to stay on the peninsula,” he said.

Although observers say such an eventual outcome is highly unlikely, China’s guard is up. Since the planned talks between Mr Trump and Mr Kim were announced in March, China’s mantra has been that it welcomes dialogue, but bilateral talks with Pyongyang should soon be replaced with a resumption of negotiations that include Moscow, Beijing, Seoul, Tokyo, and Washington. Known as the six-party talks, these were last held in 2007 and could be restarted as early as this summer, diplomats say.

[…]

With China excluded from the bargaining table, any number of outlandish scenarios seem possible in the fevered dreams of the China’s analyst community: from a reunification of North and South Korea under a US security umbrella to a suddenly pro-American North Korea with nuclear weapons pointed at China.

As the FT reminds us, China’s worries aren’t without precedent: Russia accused the US of breaking pledges it made during the reunification of Germany back in 1990 – a grudge the country’s leadership harbors to this day.

Meanwhile, some analysts have cited the increase in oil supplies flowing to the North – in violation of US sanctions – as evidence that the North is still economically dependent on its historical benefactor.

Wang Chong of the Charhar Institute in Beijing, said the meeting between the two leaders meant “the settlement of the peninsula issue cannot be reached without China’s contribution . . . I do not think China is excluded. Only some countries take turns being out in front.”

Mr Kim has gone out of his way to reassure China. Evoking their common socialist roots, a North Korean troupe performed a Chinese Cultural Revolution ballet called The Red Detachment of Women in Pyongyang last week.

[…]

When a busload of Chinese tourists crashed in Pyongyang on Sunday, killing 32, Mr Kim met with the Chinese ambassador in Pyongyang to deliver condolences, and then went to the hospital to meet survivors — an unheard of step for the leader.

[…]

More likely than any grand bargain, say diplomats, is incremental progress towards dismantling its nuclear weapons programme and lifting of sanctions. “Kim is doing everything to secure his regime — he is not going to suddenly throw it all away for unification,”said one diplomat from an Asian country.

Not to mention the fact that China is still responsible for roughly 90% of the foreign trade flowing in and out of the reclusive Communist state.

The leaders of the world’s second-largest economy have also been engaged in a battle of wills with President Trump over the US’s demands that China abandon its purportedly “unfair” trade practices.

However, others are more suspicious of the North’s motives. One analyst suspects the North is trying to play the US and China off each other and hoping the benefit by securing more flexibility for its nuclear program. After all, China has become steadily more critical of the North’s nuclear ambitions in recent years as the country’s scientists have come incredibly close to being able to manufacture a nuclear warhead capable of fitting atop one of the North’s intercontinental ballistic missiles.

But in the latest sign that the North’s sudden willingness to negotiate with the US might be some kind of geopolitical ploy, reports surfaced Wednesday morning that a crucial tunnel in the North’s Punggye-ri nuclear test site had finally collapsed.

This immediately aroused speculation that Kim might’ve had an ulterior motive for proclaiming the tests had been suspended. But at the very least, it calls into question Kim’s motives for seeking the talks in the first place.

So, is China right to worry about Pyongyang cozying up to the US? Or is it Trump who is underestimating Kim’s cunning.

What do you think?

END

China is planning to lower the auto tariffs from 25% to either 15% or 10%. However cars manufactured in the uSA will still have its 25% tariff as Xi is still dueling with Trump

(courtesy zerohedge)

China Planning To Lower Auto Tariffs As Soon As Next Month

Two weeks after Chinese President Xi Jinping reiterated China’s plan to begin liberalizing its automobile market by lowering tariffs on imported cars – dealing what could be a death blow to the government’s strategy of forcing foreign manufacturers to enter into profit-sharing (and intellectual property sharing) agreements with local manufacturers, just to gain entry to the mainland market – senior officials at the State Council, China’s cabinet, are saying the lower tariffs could be announced as soon as next month, according to Bloomberg.

Xi isn’t the only senior Chinese official to speak on the issue. Back in January, Chinese Premier Liu He promised his audience at Davos that the tariffs would be lowered.

High-end brands like BMW and Lexus have the most to gain from lower tariffs in China because they often don’t have a manufacturing presence in the country, which means their cars face the full 25% import tariff.

The State Council, or China’s cabinet, is weighing proposals to reduce the levy on imported cars to 10 percent or 15 percent, said the people, who asked not to be identified as the information isn’t public. The current rate is 25 percent. An announcement on the decision could be made as soon as next month, they said. The finance ministry didn’t respond to a fax seeking comment.

The move comes as investors and executives fret about a trade war between China and the U.S. China has responded to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff threats with similar force — though at the same time it has signaled opening up its finance and auto industries. Trump said on Tuesday that Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin will depart for China within days.

A lower tariff would also benefit brands such as Daimler AG’s Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen AG’s Porsche as their imported models would become more competitive.

Elon Musk will likewise be delighted if this report is true.

And this isn’t the only major policy change China is considering. China last week said it planned to allow foreign automakers to own more than 50% of domestic factories. But despite President Donald Trump’s delight earlier this month when Xi mentioned lowering the tariffs – which Trump mistakenly interpreted as an olive branch in the burgeoning trade war between the two countries – US carmakers might still face scrutiny. China is threatening to slap an additional 25% import duty on cars made in the US. Higher tariffs on US cars would be particularly bad news for Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who has reportedly been trying to build a Tesla factory in Shanghai’s free economic zone. Musk hailed Xi’s announcement as a “very important action by China.”

Still, imports only comprise a small part of the Chinese market. China imported 1.22 million vehicles last year, or about 4.2% of its total.

end

USA top admiral warns that China now controls the South China Sea

(courtesy zerohedge)

Top US Admiral Warns China Now Controls The South China Sea

An unclassified 50-page transcript on Advance Policy Questions for Admiral Philip Davidson, USN Expected Nominee for Commander, U.S. Pacific Command, just confirmed the collapse of American exceptionalism in the South China Sea. Adm. Davidson, the likely nominee to replace departing U.S. Pacific Command Chief Admiral Harry Harris, warned that Beijing has the capability and capacity to control the South China Sea “in all scenarios short of war with the United States.”

Navy Adm. Philip Davidson testifies during a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, Tuesday, April 17, 2018. (Source: AP)

In written testimony to the US Senate Armed Services Committee released last Tuesday, Adm. Davidson said China is seeking “a long-term strategy to reduce the U.S. access and influence in the region,” which he claims the U.S. must maintain its critical military assets in the area. He views China as “no longer a rising power,” but rather a “great power and peer competitor to the United States in the region.” Adm. Davidson agreed with President Trump’s recent assessment on China, calling the country a “rival.”

Adm. Davidson warns, that it is Beijing’s clear intent to disintegrate the seventy years of U.S. alliances and partnerships in the region.

“I am also concerned about Beijing’s clear intent to erode U.S. alliances and partnerships in the region. Beijing calls them a relic of the Cold War. In fact, our alliances and partnerships have been the bedrock of stability in the Indo-Pacific region for the past seventy years, and they remain a core element of our defense strategy.”

Adm. Davidson was then questioned about China’s militarization activities in the South China Sea. He responded by indicating Beijing “would easily overwhelm military forces,” because of their strategic weaponized islands in the region.

“China will be able to extend its influence thousands of miles to the south and project power deep into Oceania. The PLA will be able to use these bases to challenge U.S. presence in the region, and any forces deployed to the islands would easily overwhelm the military forces of any other South China Sea-claimants. In short, China is now capable of controlling the South China Sea in all scenarios short of war with the United States.”

US Senate Armed Services Committee then questioned Adm. Davidson about his stance concerning Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). He replied, calling the economic initiative, “predatory” in nature because China’s low-interest loans would enable Beijing to manipulate trade deals.

“The predatory nature of many of the loans and initiatives associated with the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) lead me to believe that Beijing is using BRI as a mechanism to coerce states into greater access and influence for China. The nations that accept China’s offer of low-interest loans, grants, and other financial incentives risk Beijing later manipulating economic deals into future security arrangements, and when these countries are unable to pay, Beijing often offers to swap debt for equity (e.g., the Port of Hambantota in Sri Lanka). Ultimately, BRI provides opportunities for China’s military to expand its global reach by gaining access to foreign air and maritime port facilities. This reach will allow China’s military to extend its striking and surveillance operations from the South China Sea to the Gulf of Aden. Moreover, Beijing could leverage BRI projects to pressure nations to deny U.S. forces basing, transit, or operational and logistical support, thereby making it more challenging for the United States to preserve international orders and norms. “

In response to questions about how the U.S. Navy in the South China Sea should handle the increased military presence in the region. Adm. Davidson advocated for a sustained U.S. military approach, with the increased investment in new high-tech weaponry.

“US operations in the South China Sea—to include freedom of navigation operations—must remain regular and routine. In my view, any decrease in air or maritime presence would likely reinvigorate PRC expansion.”

In regards to the type of weapons, Adm. Davidson outlined some critical technologies for immediate investment:

“A more effective Joint Force requires sustained investment in the following critical areas: undersea warfare, critical munitions stockpiles, standoff weapons (Air-Air, Air-Surface, Surface-Surface, Anti-Ship), intermediate range cruise missiles, low cost / high capacity cruise missile defense, hypersonic weapons, air and surface lift capacity, cyber capabilities, air-air refueling capacity, and resilient communication and navigation systems.”

Adm. Davidson’s testimony to the US Senate Armed Services Committee, provides us with the much-needed knowledge that American exceptionalism is quickly deteriorating in the South China Sea after more than seventy years of control. The transcript reveals how America’s military will continue to drain the taxpayers, as it will need an increasing amount of investments and military assets in the Eastern Hemisphere to protect whatever control it has left. The clash of exceptionalism between Beijing and Washington is well underway, will war come next?

end

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

European ECB report to Europe/Press conference

Optimism from Draghi has he downplays soft economic data sends the Euro higher along with gold/silver

(courtesy zerohedge)

Euro Rebounds, Reclaims 1.22 As Draghi Downplays Soft Econ Data

One look at the recent Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index, which as shown below, recently plunged to 6 year lows, confirming that Eurozone economic growth recently hit a brick wall and has been in freefall (largely due to the collapsing Chinese credit impulse)…

… is sufficient to explain why most traders were expecting a more dovish Draghi to emerge from today’s press conference. Instead, Draghi once again surprised with his bubbly optimism, downplaying the clearly soft economic data.

Specifically, the ECB president said that he expects economic growth to remain solid, and underscored the hawkish case by stating that he expects “solid, broad-based growth.” In a follow up question, Draghi attributed some of the recent slowdown in economic data to “one-off” factors, which would read as fairly positive for the outlook. Specifically, he blamed the weather, and – once again – the timing of Easter: “Some normalisation was expected, mostly due to temporary factors, for example cold weather, strikes, timing of Easter”.

He also cited continued strength in data flow on an absolute basis – he summarizes with the line “caution, tempered by unchanged confidence.”

Having touched on FX volatility in recent press conference, Draghi was also asked a question about recent FX moves, although he swerved away from an outright comment on EUR, saying the ECB did not discuss exchange rate volatility and does not comment on recent EUR weakness despite given an opportunity.

Commenting on the presser, ING said that Draghi’s optimism may encourage Euro bulls, and adding that Draghi “not expressing too much concern over recent softening” in economic data has helped the euro and may encourage investors who are bullish on the currency: “EUR passes its first test on Draghi’s comments” according to ING analyst Viraj Patel.

According to ING, the message is that euro-zone growth outlook “remains solid and broad-based could excite some lingering EUR bulls” Patel said, and added that “reading between the lines, one could see these are levels that the ECB are comfortable with.”

He concluded that lower EUR/USD levels will be seen by bulls as “an attractive entry point to go long again ahead of the June” ECB meeting, although notes that hard economic data will determine conviction.

Sure enough, in response to the ECB’s lack of concerns about the economy and FX volatility, the EUR jumped, rising above 1.22.

end

Germany/Deutsche bank

World’s largest derivative bank and player reports disastrous results as it totally retreats from USA banking:

(courtesy zerohedge)

Deutsche Bank Reports Disastrous Results As It Retreats From US Investment Banking

One of these quarters Deutsche Bank is finally going to report a quarter that is not a disaster… just not today.

This morning, Germany’s biggest bank reported its first earnings under its new CEO, Christian Sewing, which missed across the board: Q1 net revenue missed the lowest analyst estimate, coming at €6.98 billion, down 5% and below the estimate €7.27 billion, also missing the low end of the range (€7.12 billion to €7.33 billion), and unlike other banks where at least the rebound in equity trading helped offset stagnant FICC, that was not the case for DB where sales and trading crashed by 17% to €2.45 billion – compared with a an average 10% increase at the big 5 US banks – resulting in a 74% collapse in pre-tax income for the corporate investment bank.

Summing it up, Deutsche’s pre-tax income more than halved to €432MM from a year prior, missing average analyst expectations by almost a third, and resulting in a paltry €120 million in after tax profits, a 79% plunge Y/Y.

Christian Sewing, DB’s new CEO, who unceremoniously replaced John Cryan one month ago, did not mince his words when slamming the abysmal results: “We are on a good track both in the DWS asset management business and in our Private & Commercial Bank, although we need to substantially improve profitability in both. Our Corporate & Investment Bank is also doing well in some areas and held or gained market share in certain areas. However, we are not strong enough in other areas of this business. Therefore we have to act decisively and to adjust our strategy. There is no time to lose as the current returns for our shareholders are not acceptable.”

*Deutsche Bank’s new CEO Christian Sewing*

That was just the beginning, however, and as was rumored previously, the bank announced a sweeping restructuring plan, abandoning ambitions to be a top global securities firm, scaling back U.S. rates sales and trading, reducing the corporate finance business in the U.S. and Asia, and reviewing its global equities business with a view toward cutting it back, the bank said in a statement. The measures will lead to a “significant reduction” in the 97,130-person workforce this year, Deutsche Bank said. Read: massive layoffs.

Putting DB’s collapse in context, just minutes later, UK’s Barclays, Deutsche’s biggest European peer, beat trading expectations for a second straight quarter, with revenue from markets rising 8 percent. Deutsche Bank stock tumbled as much as 4.2% before reversing losses and trading unchanged. The stock remains among the worst performers among European banks over the past years, and are trading 87% below its 2007 high.

While the action had been hinted previously, the announcement came as a bit of a shock to what was once a bank with ambitions to overtake both JPM and Goldman as a dominant name in the global arena.

The bank confirmed that it would exit from its investment banking activities where it lacked a “sustainable competitive advantage”, although it did not disclose the number of job cuts it was planning. Sewing said he wanted to lower the share in CIB revenue to 50 per cent by 2021, down from about 54 per cent in 2017.

As Bloomberg notes, the future of the investment bank had been a key factor in the tumultuous management shakeup that saw Christian Sewing take over John Cryan as chief executive officer this month. A Deutsche Bank veteran who started as an apprentice, Sewing is accelerating a push to refocus the lender on its European home market and reverse a two-decade effort to compete head-to-head with the large Wall Street firms that dominate volatile securities trading.

While shrinking the investment bank will make it harder for Sewing to return Deutsche Bank to growth, it could help him reach a target of 23 billion euros ($28 billion) in adjusted costs this year. Sewing has called the target “non-negotiable” in a memo to staff sent earlier in April. Deutsche Bank confirmed that target on Thursday, when it increased its estimate for restructuring expenses to 800 million euros this year, up from an earlier estimate of 500 million euros, Chief Financial Officer James von Moltke said.

The CFO told analysts that as most of the job cuts would happen outside Germany, where labour laws are rigid, they could be implemented quickly. “We are aiming to execute them in 2018,” said Mr von Moltke. He added the additional cuts in investment banking would come with €300m in further costs in 2018.

* * *

While analysts welcomed the massive overhaul, they pointed out that the lack of detail made it difficult to assess its real significance: the investment bank shift “appears to have some logic,” Andrew Coombs, an analyst at Citigroup Inc., wrote in a note to clients. “But we fear these steps could also have unintended consequences” for the rest of the business and “put even further pressure on both the capital position and earnings” in the short term.

Others chimed in: “we applaud [Mr] Sewing for getting full management support for a ‘shrinkage’ plan so quickly. What we are missing is timeframe and details,” wrote JPMorgan analyst Kian Abouhossein in a note to clients. Abouhossein previously urged Deutsche Bank to cut back it’s investment banking operations in the U.S., saying they’re not profitable enough. “We believe it is the right strategy especially taking into account the poor results” he added. UBS analyst Daniele Brupbacher pointed out that “it is unclear whether this is a radical change”. In calls with analysts and journalists, Sewing stressed that the cuts did not imply the investment bank was fully retreating from the US, although it was unclear what if any operations will remain.

Meanwhile, as it evacuates the US, Deutsche Bank said that it wants to focus its corporate finance business on industries that align with its European clients or areas where it has a leadership position. In U.S. rates sales and trading, it plans to shrink the balance sheet, leverage exposure and repo financing. In global equities, it wants to reduce leverage exposure to prime finance, focusing on the deepest relationships. As a reminder, Deutsche Bank has one of the largest derivative exposures on its balance sheet, at just under €50 trillion at the end of 2017.

Deutsche also said that it plans to focus its consumer bank on growing markets like Italy and Spain while in wealth management, the bank will look to grow in Germany and in international markets.

As Bloomberg adds, Thursday’s announcement marks a retreat from decades during which Germany’s largest lender sought to take on the largest Wall Street banks.

It joined the ranks of global securities firms with the 1989 purchase of British merchant bank Morgan Grenfell and a decade later purchased Bankers Trust, a New York derivatives house. That deal was a major step in the company’s transformation because it expanded access to the world’s biggest capital markets. Paul Achleitner, now Deutsche Bank’s supervisory board chairman, advised it on the purchase while at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

The aggressive expansion crashed with a bang and led to a spate of legal and market manipulation scandals that took former CEO Cryan a good part of his three-year tenure to clean up. Deutsche Bank spent more than $17 billion paying fines and settling litigation since the start of 2008.

end

the massive layoffs begin as Deutsche bank fires 400 USA bankers. It is these guys that we need to testify in the gold/silver manipulation

(courtesy zerohedge)

The Purge Begins: Deutsche Bank Fires 400 US Bankers

As part of its latest disastrous earnings, which saw trading revenues tumble by 17% as new CEO Christian Sewing took over, we reported that Deutsche Bank announced a sweeping restructuring plan, abandoning its long-running ambitions to be a top global securities firm, scaling back U.S. rates sales and trading, reducing the corporate finance business in the U.S. and Asia, and reviewing its global equities business with a view toward cutting it back, the bank said in a statement. The measures will lead to a “significant reduction” in the 97,130-person workforce this year, Deutsche Bank said. We translated it more simply: massive layoffs.

Predictably, the German bank wasted no time, and according to Reuters and Bloomberg, the purge began overnight when Deutsche fired 300 U.S.-based investment bankers on Wednesday with another 100 pink slips expected over the next 24 hours.

In total, the biggest German bank plans to cut more than 1,000 jobs, or over 10%, of total US jobs in its initial restructuring phase. According to Bloomberg, the US hosts about 10,300 Deutsche Bank employees, or about a tenth of the firm’s global workforce.

In his earnings call comments, CEO Sewing stopped short of disclosing how many of the bank’s 97,103 jobs would be let go…

… while CFO James von Moltke also gave few clues as to how much of its massive 1.4 trillion euro ($1.7 trillion) balance sheet would be shed in the process. Von Moltke estimated restructuring costs for 2018 would rise to 800 million euros, up from an earlier estimate of 500 million euros, according to Bloomberg.

“These cutbacks will be painful, but they are unfortunately unavoidable if we want to be sustainably profitable in the best interests of our bank, our clients and our investors,” Sewing said.

As noted earlier, the bank plans to reduce its activities across the board in the U.S. including rates sales and trading and corporate finance. Areas where the investment bank still believes it can grow globally include foreign exchange, commercial real estate and structured equity financing, Garth Ritchie, head of the investment bank, said in a memo to clients obtained by Bloomberg.

end

Bill Blain correctly states that the reason Millenials are not buying cars or home is simple: lack of money and huge amounts of debt(courtesy Bill Blain/Mint partners)

Blain: “Millennials Aren’t Buying Cars Or Homes Because They Are Indentured Slaves”

Submitted by Bill Blain of Mint Partners

“It takes a big hearted girl from the North Country you can tell how you payed those bills and went through heaven and hell…”

Let’s not worry about US stocks dancing around the 200 day moving average, or Deutsche Bank’s miserably miserable (anticipated) results, or the 3.01% US treasury yield (only some 90 bp lower than Greece (and yes I know they are different currencies, but that’s not the point!) And, yes, the main news today will be whatever ECB head Draghi says. Don’t expect any insights into the disturbing signals of European slowdown, but prepare for the usual kick-ra-can-down-the-road obstification about when rates are going to rise. Yawn.

Instead, let’s start with credit where credit is due.

Last night I was at the 20th Birthday Party for the UK Debt Management Office. Founded by Gordon Brown on April 1st 1998, the small and highly professional DMO staff raised nearly £150 bln for the UK last year, prompting Chancellor Philip Hammond to wonder if this made them the most productive workers in the UK? I suppose it’s no wonder my old friend, reformed banker and head of the DMO, Sir Robert Stheeman, did the maths and idly pondered: since they raise something like £800,000 for the UK every minute, perhaps its time to ask for commission based pay packages for his staff?

The success of the DMO is illustrated by the fact so many other countries have since followed the model, and by the number of bankers at last night’s do in the Treasury. Great to see so many old friends there, and thanks for the many kind words about the porridge. I really have no idea how many people read it as its distributed over a larger number of media outlets including Bloomberg, Euromoney and other financial wires – which proves its freely available commentary and therefore not subject to MiFID restrictions.

The other side of the equation this morning is the UK. A few weeks ago I mentioned the concerns of some of my moneyed friends about the low prices being hit on UK bloodstock (racing horses to you and I) sales. It seems the rich have been taking stock and holding back on discretionary spending. Do they know something we don’t? The obvious answer is “Brexit”… it so unsettling and shrouded in uncertainty that Brexit has been an excuse for anything: “What, you got hit by a meteorite on the way to work?… well that’s Brexit for you.. bless”

The truth is very different. Brexit is and always has been a distraction. The rot appears to be far more deep seated in the structure and fabric of the past 30 years. The truth is a few people have lots more money, but lots of people have far less. So, this morning its UK car sales dropping of the proverbial cliff. Millennials aren’t buying cars – no matter how cheap the financing packages are – because there indentured slavery pittances will never allow them to buy their own homes. The middle classes are holding on to their cars for longer because they are working longer and harder, are being indirectly taxed more, and have less to spend.

Meanwhile, they’re also getting fearful of a slide in housing – which is the only way most folk will ever get any kind of liveable pension. A housing slide could be triggered by higher rates, affordability and the threat of the current high employment being reversed by recession.

Or, perhaps something more insidious.

House prices in London are distinctly wibbly. (Wibbly is that moment before Wobbly becomes a Tumble preceding a Catastrophe.) I found myself watching Panorama on Monday night about corruption and money laundering through London property – the tale of the daughter of a Georgian Don who owns three flats in that Knightsbridge development being on prominent case. We’d be fools to ignore the vast swathes of London property in shell company names that may or may not be linked to industrial scale money laundering.

We’d be equally foolish to ignore the signals send by haves and have nots and income inequality – where rich overseas buyers (and once plentiful City bonuses) made Central London a no go zone. What can government do? Clamp down and seize houses as the proceeds of crime? Difficult. They’ll be told its economic suicide to send signals the UK doesn’t welcome money into the country – London property is perceived as a mega safe asset by the rising Asian middle classes, and the government wants them. (Its apparently just poor people who came to rebuild this country since the 1950s the government doesn’t want.. Oh, what biting political satire.. but the Windrush thing is a national disgrace and someone needs to fall on their swords.)

If the UK suddenly became a less attractive place to buy property, and the housing boom fizzles.. ouch. Massive Ouch.The consequences on confidence and the future will be huge. But the consequences of relying on foreign investment to keep property buoyant are equally horrid. Time to move very carefully lest the Labour party gets its act together and starts sounding rational , objective and electable on income inequality and distribution of wealth. (Oh dear.. If I sound like a radical red this morning its because I’m worried. Bandiera Rosa!)

Elsewhere… I don’t know who else has been watching the Hovnanian saga – it’s a US housebuilder that’s been running out of money. It managed to get a loan from a Blackstone owned hedge fund, but on the basis it staged a technical default to trigger CDS – benefitting the fund that was well hedged, but crushing the CDS writers. Doh! I know what you thinking. I did comment on this last year – but here’s the link to the story.

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Israel/Syria/Russia

This is deadly: Russia has decided to send the new advanced S 300 anti aircraft missiles to Syria. This is a red line for Israel as they warn of catastrophic consequences.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Russia To Send Advanced Anti-Aircraft Missiles To Syria, Warns Israel Of “Catastrophic Consequences”

Israel continues ratcheting up its rhetoric this week in response to Russia’s Defense Ministry signaling it will likely move forward in arming Syria with the advanced S-300 missile defense system, bringing both Israeli and Lebanese airspace to within targeting range of Syrian missiles.

On Tuesday Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman said in unambiguous terms that his country would attack such missile sites should Russia move forward on supplying them.

Liberman told Israel’s YNet, “What’s important to us is that the defensive weapons the Russians are giving Syria won’t be used against us,” and threatened further, “one thing should be clear: If someone fires on our planes, we will destroy them.”

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has in the past years of war in Syria – of which Israel is a significant player, especially given its longtime support of al-Qaeda linked anti-Assad insurgents to the south of Damascus – made it clear that transfer of the S-300 would constitute a “red line” on which Israel would act.

In 2013, when Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly first considered the move, marking a major and exceptionally advanced update to Syria’s current Soviet-era deterrent systems, Netanyahu warned, “We’ll destroy your missiles if you deliver them to Assad.” He said that Israel would hit them before the system came online.

Though displaying an early reluctance to derail its delicate diplomatic relationship with Israel, Russia changed its tune on the very morning after the US-led coalition strike took place overnight on April 13. Russia’s first deputy chief of staff, Sergei Rudskoi, said at the time that Russia would “reconsider” whether to supply the air defenses to Assad – an issue previously thought dead as a result of prior Israeli-Russian summits in Sochi.

However, multiple international reports now indicate Russia is likely moving forward with transfer of the feared system which has a range of up to 150-200 kilometers (or 120 miles max).

Reuters reports while citing Russia’s main state operated news agency:

Russia plans to deliver new air defense systems to Syria in the near future, RIA news agency cited Russia’s Defence Ministry as saying on Wednesday.

The ministry added it plans to study a U.S. Tomahawk cruise missile captured by Syrian forces in a recent attack, in order to improve Russia’s own missiles, RIA reported.

And crucially, as Haaretz notes, “With Putin’s S-300, Assad’s army could even ‘lock-on’ IAF aircraft as they take off from bases within Israel.” And as one Israeli defense analyst put it, “Israel should be worried.”

But what’s really behind Israel’s dire warnings to the world and longtime threats of acting on “red lines”?It is certainly not out of concern for acts of aggression coming from either Syria or Russia, as neither country has attacked Israel in recent history.

Instead, we find the opposite: Israel has attacked Russian allied Syria frequently and with impunity since at least 2013, and it simply wishes to maintain aerial superiority unimpeded (and going back to 2007, when it struck a suspected Syrian nuclear reactor near Deir Ezzor, as Israeli officials have recently admitted).

Last summer, the head of Israel’s air force for the first time openly acknowledged nearly one hundred IDF (Israeli Defense Forces) attacks on convoys and sites inside Syria over the course of the past 5 years.Perhaps a dozen more have occurred since then, with Syria only very recently retaliating against Israeli incursions, shooting down at least one Israeli F-16 jet near the Golan. Israel also reportedly participated in the US-led missile strikes on April 13 in the hope of weakening the Syrian Army’s clear dominant trajectory over the armed insurgency.

Indeed, in spite of over a hundred unprovoked Israeli attacks, Assad has not taken the bait of an Israeli desire for escalation for years now. While pro-government Syrians have themselves at times complained about Israel’s seeming ability to strike inside sovereign Syrian territory with impunity, Assad appears to be operating with the long-game in mind of “survival now, retaliation later”.

It was clear starting in 2013 that Israel’s semi-frequent strikes on largely non-strategic targets were more about provocation: should Damascus lob missiles back in Israel’s direction Netanyahu would launch an all-out assault while Syria was at its weakest in the midst of a grinding and externally funded al-Qaeda insurgency.

Concerning Syria’s current missile defense deterrent capabilities – though contested among analysts – Syria’s over 30-year old current deterrent system appears to have performed well, likely stunning the West and neighboring Israel (which itself played a part in the coalition attack) as it reportedly shot down 71 of the 103 cruise missiles,according to official Russian and Syrian government sources (Russia this week has offered proof that its version is correct, over and against Pentagon claims that not a single tomahawk was shot down).

Israeli military analysts are now themselves quite open about the end-goal here: it is all about Israel’s aim of maintaining the capability to do whatever it wants in Syria, without repercussions – whether international censure or domestic push-back against the Likud establishment.

One can look no further than “the centrist” Jerusalem Post, whose Deputy Managing Editor Tovah Lazaroff is unusually candid regarding Israeli aims while citing an Israeli general:

Israel fears the S-300 would hamper its ability to attack military sites in Syria that are dangerous to the Jewish State and would therefore allow Iran to strengthen its military foothold in that country.

“This is by far the most advanced weapons system in air defense in Syrian hands so far,” said Brig. Gen. Assaf Orion (ret.), “so theoretically it is an entrenchment to the apparent freedom of action that the Israeli air force enjoys over Syria’s sky.”

Meanwhile, Russian military sources were quoted in Haaretz as saying that if Israel tried to destroy the anti-aircraft batteries—as analysts have indicated Israel likely would—it would leads to “catastrophic consequences.”

After Trump’s ‘one-off’ attack on Syria and Russia’s non-engagement against what was in the end a big American fireworks show, many around the world breathed a collective sigh of relief that World War III had been avoided… but are we only witnessing a mere prelude to the final act?

end

Iran/USA

(courtesy zerohedge)

Iranian Naval Commander Threatens To Sink US Ships, Create “Catastrophic Situation” If Trump Kills Deal

President Donald Trump offered some of his most bellicose rhetoric yet about Iran on Tuesday when he said Iran would have “bigger problems than they have ever had before” if the country’s leadership dared to restart its nuclear program following a US pull-out of the JCPOA (otherwise known as the Iran deal), per the Times of Israel.

And today, a top Iranian general hit back at Trump with an aggressive threat to sink US Navy ships, while warning that the US would find itself in a “catastrophic situation” if it withdraws from the deal and reimposes economic sanctions.

“The actual information that the Americans have about us is much less than what they think they have. When will they figure this out? When it is too late,” the Revolutionary Guard Corps’s navy commander, Admiral Ali Fadavim, told Iranian television on Saturday.

“They will definitely figure it out when their ships are sunk, or when they find themselves in a catastrophic situation,” Fadavi threatened in an interview with IRINN TV, according to a translation by the Middle East Media Research Institute.

On Wednesday, a non-proliferation envoy confirmed that the US isn’t seeking to renegotiate the JCPOA. Instead, the White House would like to pursue a separate agreement like the one French President Emmanuel Macronproposed during a press conference with Trump. And apparently, Macron’s proposal took his European partners by surprise.

Admiral Fadavim’s remarks followed a similarly stern warning from Iranian President Hassan Rouhani.

“I am telling those in the White House that if they do not live up to their commitments, the Iranian government will react firmly,” Rouhani said.

“If anyone betrays the deal, they should know that they would face severe consequences,” he added.

Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif also reiterated over the weekend his warning that Tehran was ready to swiftly resume uranium enrichment if the US ditches the accord.

Meanwhile, Ali Shamkhani, the Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, warned that Iran would consider withdrawing from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty if the US reimposes sanctions.

Of course, by leaving both the Iran deal and the NPT, Iran would only lend credence to its adversaries’ claims that the Islamic Republic is seeking to build a nuclear weapon – an accusation Iran has long denied. The White House has set a self-imposed deadline of May 12 for deciding whether to pull out of the deal.

end

Israel/Iran

the rhetoric intensifies: Israel claims that the Iranian regime is in its final days economically and militarily

(courtesy zerohedge)

Israeli Defense Minister: “The Iranian Regime Is In Its Final Days”

Israel’s Defense Minister says Iran is on the brink of economic and military collapse, and that Israel will attack Tehran “and destroy every Iranian military outpost in Syria threatening Israel,” according to Arab-language publication Elaph and reported by Israeli media Thursday.

“They know that the Iranian regime is in its final days and will soon collapse,” said Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman, adding “If they attack Tel Aviv, we will attack Tehran.”

Liberman suggested Iran is vulnerable on two fronts, economic and military – and that an American withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal would significantly damage the regime’s economy during a period in which the Islamic Republic is devoting resources to a military build-up in Syria against the West.

“Iran is trying to establish bases in Syria and arm them with advanced weapons,” Lieberman said. “Every military outpost in Syria in which Iran seems to be trying to dig in militarily, we will destroy.”

Lieberman says that Israel must prevent an Iranian military build-up on their border. “We won’t allow it, whatever the cost,” he said.

Iran has repeatedly hit back against similar rhetoric, threatening to attack Israel directly.

“If you provide an excuse for Iran, Tel Aviv and Haifa will be razed to the ground,” Ali Shirazi, an adviser to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said in mid-April according to the Washington Times.

Meanwhile, Axios reports that Israel has approached Russia several times over the last few weeks with demands that the Kremlin adhere to a cease fire arrangement signed with the U.S. last November, which includes preventing pro-Iranian militias from entering a buffer zone on the Syrian-Israeli border.

The protests show Israel’s growing nervousness over the Iranian buildup in Syria. Recent flashpoints between Israel and Russia in Syria are also making it harder for the countries to maintain close coordination.

Israeli officials told me the message has been passed to the Russians by the Israeli ambassador to Moscow, by Israeli defense officials and at a senior political level. –Axios

Axios puts the cease fire deal in context:

Last November, Russia the U.S. and Jordan signed a cease fire deal in southern Syria which established de-escalation zones on the Syrian-Israeli border and on the Syrian-Jordanian border. As part of the deal, a buffer zone was to be established which Pro-Iranian forces would be excluded from.
According to the deal, the Russians were the responsible for enforcing the zone. But Israeli officials told me that’s not happening at all. They claim pro-Iranian Shiite militias and Hezbollah elements are inside the buffer zone in violation of the deal.

Will Russia rein-in Iranian rabble-rousers in Syria? Will the United States pull out of the Iran oil deal? Find out on the next episode of “not our problem.”

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

Why Canada is heading down the same path as other countries with no gold

(courtesy Alex Deluce/GoldTelegraph.com

Canada Has No Gold But A Mountain Of Debt… Things Will End Badly

Authored by Alex Deluce via GoldTelegraph.com,

While other central banks have been busy increasing their gold reserves, Canada sold off all its gold reserves in 2016.The Bank of Canada ranks last globally out of 100 major central banks.

There is precedence in a central bank selling off its gold, and it didn’t work out very well. In 1999, when the price of gold was low at $282.40 an ounce, the United Kingdom sold half of its gold reserves, worth approximately $6.5 billion. The sale raised $3.5 billion. By 2007, the price of gold had risen to $675.00 an ounce, and the UK had lost more than £2 billion. This financial disaster, known as Brown’s Bottom, did not work out well. And Canada appears to be following in its footsteps.

With many uncertainties globally, Canada’s gold sale could have serious consequences.

In this age of fiat currency, many people forget that gold is actually money, and has never stopped from functioning as a reliable store of value. Gold is a relatively liquid currency and one of the most highly traded.

According to Canada’s senior Finance Department economist Morneau, the reason for the gold sale was the cost involved in storing the gold and the fact that gold offers a poor return. That seems like strange logic since gold has outperformed the S&P 500 since 2000. The price of gold went from $35.00 an ounce in 1967 to over $1,300 today.

As former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan has said:

Central banks have been big buyers of gold since 2010. The prime buyers have been Russia and China, but most other central banks have scrambled to follow suit.

On the other hand, Canada has now joined developing countries such as Angola, Belize and Tonga that have no gold reserves at all. Is Canada headed for disaster?

Canada’s current reserve position of $10,412 billion in the IMF entitles it to 2.26 percent of votes within the organization. It has reduced its reserve position by $1.2 billion. With the sale of gold, Canada is greatly reducing its voting power in the IMF.

Is Canada’s financial power gradually diminishing along with its gold reserves? It seems to have created a mysterious scenario of “ … and then, there were none.”

Following the sale of its of gold, Canada’s market debt has surpassed $1 trillion in a historic milestone.

This debt is mostly due to the uncontrolled borrowing made possible by the Bank of Canada’s easy lending policies. Canada has a current debt ceiling of $1.168 trillion, and it is anticipated that Parliament will have to increase that ceiling in the near future. According to the government, it has the power to borrow to refinance its massive debt. But borrowing will only serve to increase the already existing mountain of debt further. Canada has become one the leaders in global debt, and its solution appears to be to continue adding to it with new borrowing. Canada household debt now equals 101 percent of its GDP.

Canada is not situated in a good financial place. Any shift in the global economic wind would leave Canada in a very precarious position.

Ironically, Canada’s record debt comes at a time when economic growth is at 3% (2017) which was the highest in six years and many economists expect this to continue.

That optimism, however, is misleading. Canada’s economic growth comes at a time when its total deficit spending has increased to beyond $18 billion. Outstanding corporate credit reached a historic high of $803 billion in 2017.

In addition, Canada is facing a mortgage bubble, with homeowners who bought lavish houses on easy credit now finding themselves unable to afford increased interest rates on their mortgages or being unable to sell a house they can no longer afford.

Canada’s financial policies has been a puzzle to many. While other countries are amassing gold, it has deliberately sold off all its gold reserves, while other countries are attempting to reduce massive debts, Canada appears to plan on increasing its own.

Countries that have historically valued gold have been or have strived to be global powers. The mere ownership of gold has always been a sign of authority. Canada, on the other hand… is flying solo, and might be heading for a crash.

end

7. OIL ISSUES

8. EMERGING MARKET

Venezuela

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00 am

Euro/USA 1.2182 UP .0011/ REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ SPAIN VS CATALONIA/REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:/TRUMP HEALTH CARE DEFEAT//ITALIAN REFERENDUM DEFEAT/AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA FALLING INTEREST RATES AGAIN/HOUSTON FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES DEEPLY IN THE GREEN

USA/JAPAN YEN 109.20 DOWN 0.169 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/SIGNALS U TURN WITH INCREASED NEGATIVITY IN NIRP/JAPAN OUT OF WEAPONS TO FIGHT ECONOMIC DISASTER/

GBP/USA 1.3964 UP .0028 (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.2839 UP .0002 (CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 11 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.2201; / Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED DOWN 42.94 POINTS OR 1.38% / Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 320.47 POINTS OR 1.06% /AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP .56% / EUROPEAN BOURSES OPENED GREEN

The NIKKEI: this THURSDAY morning CLOSED UP 104.29 POINTS OR 0.47%

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED DEEPLY IN THE GREEN

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / : Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 320.47 POINTS OR 1.06% / SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 42.94 POINTS OR 1.38% /

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP .56%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 104.29 POINTS OR 0.47%

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1325.25

silver:$16.58

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 3.00% !!! DOWN 3 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

The 30 yr bond yield 3.19 DOWN 2 IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 91.10 DOWN 7 CENT(S) from TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

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And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.685% DOWN 3 in basis point(s) yield from WEDNESDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.0.06% DOWN 7/10 in basis points yield from WEDNESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.270% DOWN 3 IN basis point yield from WEDNESDAY/

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.747 DOWN 3 POINTS in basis point yield from WEDNESDAY/

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 48 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:FALLS TO +.593% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY

END

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IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.21110 DOWN .0060 (Euro DOWN 60 Basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/

USA/Japan: 109.26 DOWN 0.108 Yen UP 11 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3927 DOWN .0009( POUND DOWN 9 BASIS POINTS)

USA/Canada 1.2865 UP .0028 Canadian dollar DOWN 28 Basis points AS OIL FELL TO $67.84

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This afternoon, the Euro was DOWN 60 to trade at 1.21110

The Yen FELL to 109.27 for a GAIN of 11 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE

The POUND FELL BY 9 basis points, trading at 1.3927/

The Canadian dollar FELL by 28 basis points to 1.2868/ WITH WTI OIL FALLING TO : $67.84

The USA/Yuan closed AT 6.3365
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.06% DOWN 7/10 IN BASIS POINTS / yield/
Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 1 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 2.992% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.1784 DOWN 2 in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 91.59 UP 41 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 1:00 PM EST

London: CLOSED UP 42.11 POINTS OR 0.57%
German Dax :CLOSED UP 78.17 POINTS OR 0.63%
Paris Cac CLOSED UP 40.28 POINTS OR 0.74%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 44.30 POINTS OR 0.45%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 238.43 POINTS OR 1.00%

The Dow closed UP 238.51 POINTS OR 0.99%

NASDAQ closed UP 114.94 Points OR 1.64% 4.00 PM EST

WTI Oil price; 67.84 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 74.361 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE CROSS: 62.76 UP 35/100 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE LOWER BY 35 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS TO +.593% FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM