GOLD: $1318.35  DOWN $ 4.05  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver: $16.36 DOWN 11 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Closing access prices:

Gold $1315.50

silver: $16.33

For comex gold:

MAY/

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR MAY CONTRACT:10 NOTICE(S) FOR 1000 OZ.

TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR 10 FOR 10000 OZ (0.031 tonnes)

For silver:

MAY

780 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

3,900,000 OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 780 for 3,900,000 oz

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Bitcoin: BID $9304/OFFER $9304: up $278(morning)

Bitcoin: BID/ $9248/offer $9348: up $321  (CLOSING/5 PM)

 

end

First Shanghai gold fix comes at 10 pm est

The second Shanghai gold fix:  2:15 pm

First Shanghai gold fix gold: 10 pm est:  1326.28

NY price  at the same time: 1324.25

PREMIUM TO NY SPOT: $2.03

ss

Second gold fix early this morning:  1327.24

USA gold at the exact same time:  1319.15

PREMIUM TO NY SPOT:  $8.09

AGAIN, SHANGHAI REJECTS NEW YORK PRICING.

WE WILL NOT PROVIDE LONDON FIXES AS THEY ARE NOT ACCURATE AS TO WHAT IS GOING ON AT THE SAME TIME FRAME.

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST  ROSE BY A SMALL 324 CONTRACTS FROM  189,858  RISING TO 190,177  WITH FRIDAY’S SMALL 5 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING. AFTER A  STRING OF 4 CONSECUTIVE OI GAINS, WE ENDED OUR 5 CONSECUTIVE DROPS IN OI WITH THE TINY RISE.  WE ARE NOW WITNESSING OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY COMEX LONG LIQUIDATION AS WE ENTERED INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY AS LONGS PACK THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATE OVER TO LONDON.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD AN FAIR SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP : 0 EFP CONTRACTS FOR APRIL,  206 EFP’S FOR MAY , 1066 EFP’S FOR JULY AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE OF 1272 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1272 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1272 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 6.36 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE FALL IN  SILVER PRICE (5 CENTS) AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR MAY COMEX DELIVERY. (24.1 MILLION OZ)

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF APRIL: (FINAL)

77,150 CONTRACTS (FOR 21 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 77,150 CONTRACTS) OR 385.75 MILLION OZ: AVERAGE PER DAY: 3673 CONTRACTS OR 18.369 MILLION OZ/DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH:  385.75 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 55.00% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:  1.1424      BILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018:                                               236.879     MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018:                                               244.95         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018:                                       236.67         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL 2018:                                          385.75         MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED RISE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX OF 324 WITH THE TINY  5 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AS OUR CUSTOMARY COMEX LONG MIGRATION  INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS CONTINUED IN EARNEST AS WE HAVE NOW ENTERED THE NEW ACTIVE MONTH OF MAY.   THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT IN FACT WE HAD AN FAIR  SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1272 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) . FROM THE CME DATA:  0 CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED FOR APRIL, 206  EFP’S WERE ISSUED  FOR THE  MONTH OF MAY, AND 1066 EFP CONTRACTS FOR JULY,   FOR  A DELIVERABLE FORWARD CONTRACT OVER IN LONDON WITH A FIAT BONUS (TOTAL: 1272). TODAY WE GAINED 1596  TOTAL OI CONTRACTS  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: i.e. 1272 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH AN INCREASE OF 324  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH THE  FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER OF 5 CENTS AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $16.47 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN THIS  ACTIVE MAY DELIVERY MONTH. IT SURE SEEMS THAT WE MUST HAVE HAD SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING ON BOTH EXCHANGES.

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. .951 MILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 136% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MAY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 780 NOTICE(S) FOR 3,900,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER, WE HAVE NOW SET THE NEW RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51  ON APRIL 9.2018.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL: 2.485 MILLION OZ  AND MAY: 24.1 MILLION OZ )
2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER  243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018
3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/ (FINAL)

PRIOR TO APRIL, WE AVERAGED APPROXIMATELY 238 MILLION OZ OF SILVER EFP’S ISSUED. WHEN WE SET THE RECORD IN APRIL  (APRIL 9) WE REGISTERED 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AT THE COMEX. WE HAVE LOST EXACTLY 53,000 OI CONTRACTS WITH A FALL OF ONLY 7 CENTS. (OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX HAS DECLINED BY 53,000 CONTRACTS FROM THE RECORD SETTING DAY OF APRIL 9/2018 TO TODAY’S LEVEL OF 190,203) IN THE MONTH OF APRIL WE HAVE GAINED 148 MILLION OZ OF EFP FROM AN AVERAGE 238 MILLION OZ OR A GAIN OF 29,600 CONTRACTS.  WHEN THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WE MUST SEE A FALL IN PRICE AND THAT IS WHEN THE COMMERCIALS ENTER AND BUY UP THE LIQUIDATED CONTRACTS OF THE SPECULATORS.  SOMEHOW THIS DID NOT HAPPEN AS WE WITNESS A DIFFERENTIAL FALL OF 53,000 –  29600 =  23,400 CONTRACTS WITH HARDLY A CHANGE IN PRICE???/

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT). IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE BANKER CAPITULATION IN SILVER AS THEY STRUGGLE TO REMOVE SOME OF THEIR HUGE OBLIGATIONS.

In gold, the open interest FELL BY 4206 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 495,761 DESPITE THE RISE  IN THE GOLD PRICE/FRIDAY’S TRADING ( GAIN OF $5.90).  WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY.  THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 7816 CONTRACTS :   JUNE SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 7816 CONTRACTS , MAY SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 0 CONTRACTS  AND AUGUST SAW THE ISSUANCE OF: 0 CONTRACTS WITH ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The new OI for the gold complex rests at 496,424. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED  OI GAIN IN CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 4206 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND AN GOOD SIZED 7816 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON.THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN: 3610 CONTRACTS OR 361,000 OZ = 11.22 TONNES.

FRIDAY, WE HAD 8670  EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF APRIL : 229,436 CONTRACTS OR 22,943,600  OZ OR 713.64 TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 10,925 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY OR 1,092,500 OZ/ TRADING DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :    THIS MONTH IN 21 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 713.84 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 713.84/2550 x 100% TONNES =  27.99% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN APRIL ALONE.*** THE ACCUMULATION OF EFP CONTRACTS IS RISING PER MONTH.

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE:  2,758.40*  TONNES   *SURPASSED ANNUAL PROD’N

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018:           653.22  TONNES

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018:         649.45 TONNES

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018:                741.89 TONNES  (22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR APRIL 2018:                   713.84 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE. 

Result: AN  DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 4206  DESPITE THE RISE  IN PRICE // GOLD TRADING FRIDAY ($5.90 GAIN). WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 7816 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 7816 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A GOOD SIZED NET GAIN OF 3610 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

7816 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 4206 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 13.290 TONNES).

we had: 10 notice(s) filed upon for 1000 oz of gold at the comex.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD…

WITH GOLD DOWN  $4.04 /NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

Inventory rests tonight: 871.20 tonnes.

SLV/

WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.899 MILLION OZ/

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A SMALL 324 CONTRACTS from 189,858 UP TO 190,177 (AND CLOSER TO THE  NEW COMEX RECORD SET /APRIL 9/2017 AT 243,411/SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). THE PREVIOUS RECORD OTHER THAN WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER ONE YEAR AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89. AFTER WE HAVE HAD FOUR CONSECUTIVE OI GAINS WE NOW ENDED FIVE  CONSECUTIVE OI DROPS.  OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS CONTINUES AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE: 0 EFP CONTRACTS FOR APRIL, 206 EFP CONTRACTS FOR MAY  (WE DO NOT GET A LOOK AT THESE CONTRACTS AS IT IS PRIVATE BUT THE CFTC DOES AUDIT THEM), AND 1066 EFP’S FOR JULY AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  1272 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 324 CONTRACTS TO THE 1272 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A GOOD GAIN OF 1596 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  7.98 MILLION OZ!!! AND THIS OCCURRED DESPITE A TINY FALL IN PRICE OF 5 CENTS.  THE BANKERS ORCHESTRATED THEIR RAID THROUGHOUT THE WEEK TO DESPERATELY TRY AND PARE THEIR GIGANTIC OPEN INTEREST SHORT ON BOTH EXCHANGES BUT TO NO AVAIL. JUDGING BY THE RECORD NUMBER OF ISSUANCE DURING THIS MONTH OF APRIL AT 385.75 MILLION OZ. I DO NOT THINK THAT OUR BANKERS HAVE BEEN TOO SUCCESSFUL. IT SURE LOOKS TO ME LIKE WE HAD SOME GOOD OLD FASHIONED BANKER SHORT COVERING, YET THE PRICE REMAINS RELATIVELY CONSTANT.

RESULT: A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE FALL IN SILVER PRICING / YESTERDAY (5 CENTS/) . BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER GOOD SIZED 1272 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR APRIL, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING/SUNDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed UP 7.20 POINTS OR 0.23%  /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 527.78 POINTS OR 1.74%   / The Nikkei closed UP 148.26 POINTS OR 0.66%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .48%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.3330/Oil DOWN to 67.31 dollars per barrel for WTI and 73.03 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED DEEPLY IN THE GREEN.   ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.3330 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3231/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING MUCH  STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE A FULL TRADE WAR IS BEGINNING/

/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

i)North Korea/South Korea

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 c CHINA

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

ii)The French ambassador to Israel has stated that the USA withdrawal from the Iran deal may lead to war

( zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

ii)The French ambassador to Israel has stated that the USA withdrawal from the Iran deal may lead to war

( zerohedge)

v)Not surprising, Netanyahu claims that Iran has and is trying to produce nuclear weapons in a secret place in Tehran.  The project is called “Project Amad”:

( zerohedge)

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

7. OIL ISSUES

8. EMERGING MARKET

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY:304,114  contracts

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY: 250,204 contracts

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI ROSE BY A SMALL 324 CONTRACTS FROM 189,858 UP TO 190,177 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS)  WITH THE TINY 5 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING. SINCE WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY. WE  WERE  INFORMED THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED 206 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR MAY,  A LARGER 1066 EFP CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR JULY AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS.  THESE EFPS WERE ISSUED TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 1272.   ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 1596  SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A 324 CONTRACT GAIN AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 1272 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON. DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE BOYS WERE VERY BUSY NEGOTIATING LONG COMEX CONTRACTS EMIGRATING TO LONDON,(AND WAITING FOR THEIR PASSPORTS)

NET GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:   1596  CONTRACTS 

AMOUNT STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX

We are now in the  active delivery month of MAY and here the front month LOST 9408 contracts FALLING TO 4822 contracts.  Thus by definition we have the following initial amount of silver standing

4822 contracts x 5000 oz per contract =   24,110,000 oz which is excellent for May.

June saw a GAIN of 64 contracts to stand at 807.  The next big delivery month for silver is July and here the OI ROSE by 10,217 contracts UP to 136,508. The next active delivery month after July for silver is September and here the OI fell by 355 contracts down to 19,035

We had 780 notice(s) filed for 3,900,000 OZ for the APRIL 2018 contract for silver

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE APRIL DELIVERY MONTH

MAY INITIAL standings/SILVER

we had 1 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

i) Into dealer: CNT: 1,195,331.347 oz

total dealer deposits: 1195,331.347 oz

we had 1 deposits into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 140 million oz of  total silver inventory or 53.4% of all official comex silver. (140 million/263 million)

JPMorgan did not  deposit  into its warehouses (official) today.

ii) Scotia 578,784.320 oz

total deposits today: 578,784.320  oz

we had 2 withdrawals from the customer account;

i) Out of CNT 279,753.962 oz

ii) Out of Scotia; 60,002.510

total withdrawals;  339,775.522  oz

we had 1 adjustment

i) Out of SCNT:

179,268.653 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer account of CNT

.

total dealer silver:  65.226 million

total dealer + customer silver:  262.948 million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the MAY. contract month is represented by 780 contract(s) FOR 3,900,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 780 x 5,000 oz = 3,900,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY. (4822) and the number of notices served upon today (780 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the MAY contract month: 780(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAY(4822) -number of notices served upon today (780)x 5000 oz equals 24,110,000 oz of silver standing for the MAY contract month 

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ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 71,901 CONTRACTS (WOW)  635 MILLION OZ OR 89% OF ANNUAL PRODUCTION.

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 89,173 CONTRACTS (my goodness)

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF  89173 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO 445 MILLION OZ (0..635 billion oz) OR 63.7% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -1.64% (APRIL 30/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.57% to NAV (APRIL 30/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -1.64%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ territory at -0.57%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail but being rescued by Sprott.
Sprott WINS hostile 3.1 billion bid to take over Central Fund of Canada

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA): NAV RISES TO -1.98`%: NAV 13.55/TRADING 13.29//DISCOUNT 1.98

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

APRIL 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.05/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.20 TONNES.

APRIL 27./WITH GOLD UP $5.90/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.20 TONNES/

APRIL 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.20 TONNES

APRIL 25/AFTER 9 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF NO MOVEMENT OF GOLD INTO OUT OF THE GLD, WE HAD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.31 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.20 TONNES.

APRIL 24./WITH GOLD UP $9.90, WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES/

APRIL 23.2018/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.00/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES.

APRIL 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.20: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES

APRIL 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.25: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES/

APRIL 18/WITH GOLD UP $3.65: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES

APRIL 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES/

April 16/WITH GOLD UP$2.80/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES/

April 13/WITH GOLD UP $6.15, A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.90 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES

April 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.40/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.99 TONNES

April 11/WITH GOLD UP $13.85/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859,99 TONNES

APRIL 10/WITH GOLD UP $5.25/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.99 TONNES

APRIL 9/WITH GOLD UP$4.50/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.99 TONNES

APRIL 6/WITH GOLD UP $7.50 ,A HUGE CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ A DEPOSIT OF 5.90 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.99 TONNES

APRIL 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.20 WE HAD TWO ENTRIES: 1) TINY WITHDRAWAL OF .28 TONNES TO PAY FOR FEES AND 2) A DEPOSIT OF 2.06 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.09 TONNES

April 4/WITH GOLD UP $2.90 WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.31 TONNES

APRIL 3./WITH GOLD DOWN $9.30 WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.31 TONNES

APRIL 2/WITH GOLD UP $19.50, WE HAD A BIG  CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 6.19 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.31 TONNES

MARCH 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.20 AND OPTIONS EXPIRY FINISHED, WE HAD NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS A 846.12 TONNES

March 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.70, ANOTHER RAID ORCHESTRATED, AGAIN NO SURPRISES AS WE WITNESS ANOTHER 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD REMOVED/INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.12 TONNES

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

APRIL 30/2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 871.20 tonnes

*IN LAST 372 TRADING DAYS: 69.84 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 322 TRADING DAYS: A NET 86.46 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO GLD INVENTORY.

end

Now the SLV Inventory/

APRIL 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.899 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.899 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENT/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316,899 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 25./WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.899 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 24./WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS/SOMETHING SPOOKED OUR CROOKS TO ADD SOME PAPER SILVER: A DEPOSIT OF 1.601 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.899 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 23.2018/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS, ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL FROM THE SLV INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.413 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.298 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.13 MILLION OZ//SLV RESTS TONIGHT AT 316.711 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 19/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: WE HAD A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.355 MILLION OZ/ MAKES ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE!!/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.841 MILLION OZ

APRIL 18/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ

APRIL 17/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS  AT 320.196 MILLION OZ

April 16/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/

April 13/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ.

April 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/

April 11/2018/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS:  NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 10/WITH GOLD UP 8 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 9/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS/WE HAD NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 6/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS, WE HAD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.319 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ

APRIL 5/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.877 MILLION OZ/

April 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS/A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A WITHRAWAL OF 135,000 OZ AND THIS IS PROBABLY TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.877 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 3./WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 2/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 29/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS, THE CROOKS DECIDED THAT THEY HAD BETTER ADD SOME 943,000 PAPER OZ TO THEIR INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ

March 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS/AGAIN NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ

APRIL 30/2018:  NO  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:  

Inventory 316.899 million oz

end

6 Month MM GOFO 1.99/ and libor 6 month duration 2.52

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0FO+ 1.99%

libor 2.52 FOR 6 MONTHS/

GOLD LENDING RATE: .53%

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.78%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.49

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.29

end

Major gold/silver trading /commentaries for MONDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.

GOLD/SILVER

Andrew Maguire’s Kinesis money which is a “bitcoin” but backed 100% by allocated gold and silver is set to go.

it think it would be a great idea to look at this!

please read at:  https://kinesis.money/#/

(Andrew Maguire)

Paris to decide fate of huge gold mine in forests of French Guiana

St Louis Fed has got it right:  bitcoin is like regular currency because it too has no instrinsic value

(courtesy Morris/Fortune Magazine)

St. Louis Fed says bitcoin is ‘like regular currency’

Gono, Zimbabwe’s former central bankers states that he printed massive amounts of money to prevent a coup

(courtesy Bulawayo,Zimbabwe)

Zimbabwe’s former central banker says he printed money to prevent coup

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING/SUNDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed UP 7.20 POINTS OR 0.23%  /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 527.78 POINTS OR 1.74%   / The Nikkei closed UP 148.26 POINTS OR 0.66%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .48%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.3330/Oil DOWN to 67.31 dollars per barrel for WTI and 73.03 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED DEEPLY IN THE GREEN.   ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.3330 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3231/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING MUCH  STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE A FULL TRADE WAR IS BEGINNING/

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

North Korea/South Korea

 

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

c) REPORT ON CHINA/HONG KONG

Good reason for the boys to whack gold/silver today: China refuses to talk on concessions with the two biggest trade demands of the USA

(courtesy zerohedge)

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Europe

Tough words from Europe has they state that they will not talk with a gun pointed to their heads.  They are now expecting a huge trade war with the USA

(courtesy zerohedge)

“We Won’t Talk With A Gun Pointed To Our Head”: Europe Braces For Trade War With The US

With just days left until the May 1 deadline when a temporary trade waiver expires and the US steel and aluminum tariffs kick in, and after last-ditch attempts first by Emmanuel Macron and then Angela Merkel to win exemptions for Europe fell on deaf ears, the European Union is warning about the costs of an imminent trade war with the US while bracing for one to erupt in just three days after the White House signaled it will reject the bloc’s demand for an unconditional waiver from metals-import tariffs.

“A trade war is a losing game for everybody,” Belgian Finance Minister Johan Van Overtveldt told reporters in Sofia where Europe’s finance ministers have gathered. “We should stay cool when we’re thinking about reactions but the basic point is that nobody wins in a trade war so we try to avoid it at all costs.“

Well, Trump disagrees which is why his administration has given Europe, Canada and other allies an option: accept quotas in exchange for an exemption from the steel and aluminum tariffs that kick on Tuesday, when the temporary waiver expires. “We are asking of everyone: quotas if not tariffs,” Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said on Friday.

This, as Bloomberg points out, puts the EU in the difficult position of either succumbing to U.S. demands that could breach international commerce rules, or face punitive tariffs.

Forcing governments to limit shipments of goods violates World Trade Organization rules, which prohibit so-called voluntary export restraints. The demand is also contrary to the entire trade philosophy of the 28-nation bloc, which is founded on the principle of the free movement of goods.

Adding to the confusion, while WTO rules foresee the possibility of countries taking emergency “safeguard” measures involving import quotas for specific goods, such steps are rare, must be temporary and can be legally challenged. The EU is demanding a permanent, unconditional waiver from the U.S. tariffs.

Meanwhile, amid the impotent EU bluster, so far only South Korea has been formally spared from the duties, after reaching a deal last month to revise its bilateral free-trade agreement with the U.S.

Europe, on the other hand, refuses to reach a compromise, and according to a EU official, “Trump’s demands to curb steel and aluminum exports to 90 percent of the level of the previous two years are unacceptable.” The question then is whether Europe’s retaliatory move would be painful enough to deter Trump and lift the sanctions: the official said the EU’s response would depend on the level of the quotas after which the punitive tariffs would kick in; meanwhile the European Commission continues to “stress the bloc’s consistent call for an unconditional, permanent exclusion from the American metal levies.”

“In the short run it might help them solve their trade balance but in the long run it will worsen trade conditions,” Bulgarian Finance Minister Vladislav Goranov said in Sofia. “The tools they’re using to make America great again might result in certain mistakes because free world trade has proven to be the best solution for the development of the world so far.”

Around the time of his meeting, French President Emmanuel Macron made it clear that the EU is not afraid of an escalating trade war and will not be intimidated, saying “we won’t talk about anything while there’s a gun pointed at our head.”

He may change his opinion once Trump fires the first bullet.

Adding to Europe’s disappointment, during her visit to the White House on Friday, Angela Merkel said she discussed trade disputes with Trump and that she failed to win a public commitment to halt the tariffs.

Meanwhile, Merkel’s new bffs over in France are also hunkering down in preparation for a lengthy conflict. French economy minister Bruone Le Maire told his fellow European bureaucrats Sofia during a discussion on taxation: “One thing I learned from my week in the U.S. with President Macron: The Americans will only respect a show of strength.”

Coming from the French, that observation is as accurate as it is delightfully ironic.

And now the real question is who has the most to lose from the imminent Transatlantic trade war, and will surrender first.

end

Italy

Italian yields spike to higher levels after all sides cannot come to an agreement as to who will govern.

If the election is called, the two euroskeptic parties have 55% of the vote

(courtesy zerohedge)

Italian Yields Spike After Five Star Calls For Fresh Elections

The political situation in Italy is once again emerging as a risk factor.

Nearly two months after a stunning defeat for establishment parties, when in the March 4 Italian elections the Euroskeptic Five Star and League parties won a majority of the vote, on Sunday the former premier leader of the Democratic Party Matteo Renzi said that his party had lost the March 4 elections and it is not its role to govern Italy next. Almost as if the PD is trying to wash its hands of what is coming.

He also added that the decision on whether Democratic Party can back a Five Star government lies with party assembly convened May 3 and with each member of Parliament.

Fast forward to this morning, when Five Star leader Luigi Di Maio, commenting on Renzi’s remark, said in a blog post that the movement “did everything to form a government in the interest of Italians” and that the “PD said ‘no’ to citizens’ issues and they will pay for it.”

Then, moments ago, the chaos that is Italian politics re-emerged front and center after the FiveStar, frustrated with being unable to form a government with either the PD or League, called for fresh elections:

• FIVE STAR’S DI MAIO CALLS FOR EARLY ELECTIONS IN ITALY
• DI MAIO CALLS ON LEAGUE’S SALVINI TO SEEK EARLY ELECTIONS

“At this stage there is no solution other than returning to elections as soon as possible, then of course the decision will be up to President Mattarella,” Di Maio said in video statement on Facebook, adding that no change is needed to the electoral law, such as the introduction of a second round, as the new elections would be a challenge between Five Star and League.

Di Maio called on League’s leader Matteo Salvini to join him on the call for new election in June to let the citizens decide, and accused the League of siding with Silvio Berlusconi instead of working with Five Star on a “government for change.”

As a reminder, the March 4 Italian general vote left the legislature divided between three main blocs – Five Star, the center-right coalition and the democrats – without any holding sufficient seats to form a government.

So what would happen if Di Maio gets his wish?

Well, as Bloomberg reported overnight, like in most European nations, Italian political preferences are becoming more right wing as a political impasse in the country drags on nearly two months after the March general election, according to a poll published in La Repubblica.

And in the latest troubling development for Brussels, support for Matteo Salvini’s League was close to 22% compared to 17.4% at the March 4 election, according to the survey, which was conducted by Demos & Pi on April 26 and 27. The Five Star Movement is the most popular party with about 33% of backing, and the Democratic Party is third with 17.8% down from 18.7, the poll showed.

If no coalition deal is reached, new elections are the most likely option, according to Silvio Berlusconi, former prime minister and leader of Forza Italia, which is part of the center-right coalition. “The risk is there if the impasse drags on,” Berlusconi said in an interview with Corriere della Sera.

And while interviews with party leaders published in the country’s main newspapers on Sunday indicated that the deadlock is getting no closer to a resolution, a new election held today that would have the League and Fire Star win 55% of the vote would come as a shock to Europe.

This is reflected in the latest Italian 10Y yields, which spiked on news that Italy may be facing another round of elections in which the euroskeptics could be approaching 60% of the vote.

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Iran/USA

Pompeo landed in Saudi Arabia seeking support for the upcoming sanctions on Iran.  It sure looks like the uSA will abandon the agreement.

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Pompeo Lands In Saudi, Immediately Calls For New Iran Sanctions

Just two days after being sworn in as US Secretary of State, former CIA Director Mike Pompeo arrived in Saudi Arabia on Saturday on a hastily-arranged visit to the Middle East to reinvigorate support for new sanctions against Iran.

As Reuters reports, the visit to Riyadh, Jerusalem and Amman comes as President Trump is set to decide whether to pull out of the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran that is still supported by European powers.

“We are urging nations around the world to sanction any individuals and entities associated with Iran’s missile program, and it has also been a big part of discussions with Europeans,” Brian Hook, a senior policy advisor traveling with Pompeo, told reporters.

“Iran’s missiles prolong war and suffering in the Middle East, they threaten our security and economic interests and they especially threaten Saudi Arabia and Israel,” he added.

Following Macron’s earlier-in-the-week efforts to persuade Trump not to kill the Iran deal, Pompeo told a news conference:

“There’s been no decision, so the team is working and I am sure we will have lots of conversations to deliver what the president has made clear.”

In Riyadh, Pompeo was greeted on the tarmac by Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir. He is expected to meet Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and King Salman during the visit.

But as Patrick Coburn writes at Counterpunch.org, as the Trump administration begins to berate Iran once again, their options may be more limited than many believe.

A crisis in relations between the US and Iran – which has the potential to produce a military confrontation in the Middle East – is building rapidly in the expectation that President Donald Trump will withdraw the US from the Iran nuclear deal in just over two weeks’ time.

Mr Trump is demanding that Iran effectively renegotiate the terms of the agreement which traded the suspension of US economic sanctions for a stop to Iran’s nuclear programme.

The White House sounds as if it has already decided to exit the agreement, which Mr Trump persistently denounced before and after his election as “the worst deal in the world”.

But he has put forward no alternative to what was successfully negotiated by President Barack Obama in 2015 other than a series of demands with which Iran is unlikely to comply, and appear designed to put the blame for the US action on Iran.

US officials admit that Iran has so far abided by the terms of the 2015 accord.

A more openly confrontational posture by the US towards Iran would achieve very little, unless Washington replaces the attempt to achieve its ends by diplomacy with sustained military action. Iran is already on the winning side in the wars that have raged in Iraq since 2003 and in Syria since 2011.

It is closely allied to the Iraqi and Syrian governments and to reverse the balance of power in the region, the US would have revert to sustained military intervention on the scale of the Iraq War, something Mr Trump has always opposed.

Iran may have already decided that the deal cannot be saved. Iranian president Hassan Rouhani warned Mr Trump on Tuesday that the US must stay within its terms which Tehran signed with other great powers or face “severe consequences”.

Mr Rouhani said in a live broadcast on state television that: “I am telling those in the White House that if they do not live up to their commitments, the Iranian government will firmly react.”

The Iranian leader did not say what this reaction would be, but the Iranian foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said at the weekend that it was “highly unlikely” that Iran would remain in the agreement – to which Russia, China, France, Germany and Britain are also signatories – if the US pulled out.

He added that Iran might immediately begin enriching uranium, but it would not develop a nuclear device.

European leaders are trying to save the deal which Mr Trump has denounced as full of “terrible flaws”, but this will prove difficult without radical concessions which Iran has rejected. These include stopping Iran’s ballistic missile programme, extending the terminal date of the agreement, and more intrusive inspections by nuclear inspectors.

No decision in Washington is final until it is announced by Mr Trump himself – and often not even then – but the promotion of officials with a record of hostility to the agreement suggests that it cannot be rescued. Mr Trump has said publicly that he sacked his secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, because he wanted to stay with the Iran agreement negotiated by President Obama.

His replacement, Mike Pompeo, is a long-term foe of the accord, once claiming that 2,000 bombing sorties would be enough to eliminate Iran’s nuclear capability. “This is not an insurmountable task for the coalition forces,” he said.

President Emanuel Macron is in Washington on a state visit, trying to save the agreement by making it more palatable to the White House. He will be followed in the US at the end of the week by the German chancellor Angela Merkel, while Theresa May will probably express her views by telephone.

All three leaders will try to reconcile Mr Trump to not leaving the accord and their arguments will revolve around supplementary sanctions and other measures targeting the Iranian ballistic missile programme and Iran’s allies abroad such as Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The European leaders’ mission may not be entirely hopeless: in confrontations over Syria and North Korea, Mr Trump’s belligerent rhetoric has been followed by more carefully calculated action.

His opening stance is normally bombastic and uncompromising in order to intimidate the other side into making concessions. It does not necessarily have to be taken at face value. But this periodic moderation may not come into play in the case of Iran, towards which he has been uncompromisingly hostile, claiming that it is the hidden power behind “terrorist” activity in the Middle East.

The White House is in a position to hurt Iran economically by re-imposing economic sanctions, not that these were ever really lifted after 2015, but US political options are more limited. It may talk about regime change in Tehran, but is not in a position to do much about it.

There is a further US weakness: the US, often prompted by Israel, and Saudi Arabia, has a track record of underestimating the extent to which Iran, as the largest Shia Muslim power, plays a leading role in a coalition of states – Iraq, Syria and Lebanon – because of the predominant influence of the Shia in these countries. It is very difficult to defeat Iran there – the northern tier of the Middle East – but it is in this region that the US has chosen over the years to try to roll back Iranian influence.

The balance of power between Iran and its enemies is going to be difficult to shift whatever Mr Trump decides about the fate of the Iran nuclear deal.

end

The French ambassador to Israel has stated that the USA withdrawal from the Iran deal may lead to war

(courtesy zerohedge)

French Ambassador: “US Withdrawal From Iran Deal May Lead To War”

The diversionary US missile strikes on Syria this (and last) April may have been just an appetizer to the main course.

The French Ambassador to Israel Hélène Le Gal has warned that a potential US walkout from the Iran nuclear deal may bring the region to the brink of a war, as she believes that Tehran would “immediately” revive its alleged nuclear weapons program, prompting a response by Israel.

Speaking to Ynetnews on Saturday, Le Gal warned there would be “huge consequences” if President Trump follows through on his pre-election pledge and pulls the US out the Iran Nuclear Deal also known as the JCPOA (or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), which he has repeatedly blasted as the “worst deal” ever negotiated.

Le Gal argued that as soon as Washington exits the seven-party agreement, it will become defunct, as Iran will follow suit.

“I don’t think Iran will stay in the deal if the US goes out” and added that “the possibility of war exists.”

“If the nuclear deal is cancelled, Iran will immediately restart its program. We need to prevent Iran from having nuclear weapons. We don’t want Iran to have nuclear weapons—not now or ever.”

The French diplomat’s warning comes shortly after French President Emmanuel Macron reaffirmed his commitment to the deal during his three-day trip to Washington, and suggested a framework for more constraints to put on Iran after 2025, when the deal is set to expire. In addition to Iran’s already mothballed nuclear program, Macron hopes to stifle its ballistic missile development and restrict its influence in the region, including in Syria and Yemen, echoing similar demands by Saudi Arabia.

However, at the end of his US visit, Macron admitted that his efforts to persuade Trump to stay in the landmark agreement, which persuaded Iran to abandon its nuclear program in return for sanctions relief allowing Tehran to resume oil exports, were unsuccessful. Trump, Macron said, is set to quit the deal, as ending it was a pre-election commitment he could not back out of. Trump boasted that he opened Macron’s eyes on Iran, claiming that the French President “is viewing Iran a lot differently than he did before he walked into the Oval Office.”

Separately, on Sunday the new US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo travelled to Israel where hammered home his boss’s message: the U.S. will pull out of the Iran nuclear deal if the “flawed” accord can’t be fixed to its satisfaction.

“President Trump’s been pretty clear. This deal is very flawed,” Pompeo said, quoted by Bloomberg, in Tel Aviv in a joint appearance with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “He’s directed the administration to try and fix it, and if we can’t fix it, he’s going to withdraw from the deal. It’s pretty straightforward.”

The U.S. remains “deeply concerned about Iran’s dangerous escalation threats to Israel and the region, and Iran’s position to dominate the Middle East remains,” Pompeo said. “The United States is with Israel in this fight.”

At the same time, Netanyahu said “aggression” by Iran had grown “many fold since the signing of the nuclear deal” in 2015. “Iran has tried to gobble up one country after the other” although so far it is mostly Israel’s attacks on Syria that have suggested any “gobbling.”

Trump has set a May 12 deadline, pressuring his European allies to come up with proposals on how to amend the deal. If the US does not renew the sanctions waiver, the Iran deal becomes null and void.

end

Last night:  “Enemy rockets”    (Israel) strikes two bases and kills 11 Iranians inside Syria.  Even bunker buster bombs were used.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Syrian Army: “Enemy” Rockets Strike 2 Bases, 11 Iranians Killed

Following yesterday’s report that Israel fighter jets unleashed a new attack on Syrian territory, with the resulting explosions so strong they registered as an earthquake, the Syrian army said on Monday that “enemy” rockets struck Assad regime military bases. An official from a regional alliance including Iran, Hezbollah and Syria, said Monday that the strikes killed 16 people, among them 11 Iranians, according to the New York Times. The report said the bombardment also destroyed 200 missiles.

Danny Makki@Dannymakkisyria

Wow! Video of a huge explosion just now in #Salhab in #Hama, reasons still unknown

According to a report on a Syrian newspaper facebook page, the attack was attributed to the U.S. and Britain although numerous reports also accuse Israel of being the responsible party. So far nobody has claimed responsibility for the massive airstirkes. Media outlets affiliated with the Syrian opposition claim 38 government soldiers were killed in the strike in Hama, with an additional 57 wounded.

Danny Makki@Dannymakkisyria

Another video of the huge explosion at 46 Brigade arms depot in #Hama, rumours of Israeli Strikes, could be sabotage as well.

The Syrian newspaper Tishreen reported on its facebook page that the attack was carried out by nine ballistic missiles fired from U.S. and British military bases in northern Jordan. This has yet to be verified or confirmed by any other source at this time.

Reports say that dozens loyal to the Syrian regime were killed in the explosion. Contrary to recent attacks on the Assad regime, after which the Syrian army reported its defense systems shot down some of the missiles, no such claims were made after the strike.

According to the London-based war monitor, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, Sunday’s attack had targeted a warehouse for missiles and killed 26 people, mostly Iranians and Iraqis. However, Iran’s Tasnim News agency denied reports of rockets hitting an Iranian military base in Syria, killing Iranian advisers.

On Monday, Israel’s security cabinet convened following the airstrike. The session was unscheduled, and Ministers were told it would pertain to the Iran nuclear deal. Developments on the topic are reportedly being presented according to Haaretz.

* * *

Sources in Syria reported explosions in military bases near the districts of Hama and Aleppo on Sunday night. As noted above, numerous Syrian media outlets claimed Israel is responsible for the attack, although so far the IDF has remained silent.

The targeted bases were manned by the Syrian army as well as Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, and housed several missile warehouses, according to the Lebanese newspaper Al Akhbar. The report adds that several dozen were wounded and evacuated to nearby hospitals. According to the report, Bunker Buster bombs were used, which makes it likely the launch was airborne.

As the following map shows, in addition to the joint US strikes from early April, Israel has been busy pounding Syrian bases in recent months.

The targeted bases were manned by the Syrian army as well as Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, and housed several missile warehouses, according to the Lebanese newspaper Al Akhbar. The report adds that several dozen were wounded and evacuated to nearby hospitals. According to the report, Bunker Buster bombs were used, which makes it likely the launch was airborne.

The Iranian news agency Tasnim quoted the commander of the Iranian-backed Afghan militia Fatemiyoun as saying the the military base near the northwestern city of Aleppo is unharmed, as are his forces.

Syrian state TV says successive blasts were heard in the Hama province and authorities are investigating the response. Shortly after the explosions, the European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre said the blasts caused a 2.6 magnitude earthquake in the area.

The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said shelling targeted a Syrian army base, home to the 47th Brigade, near the city of Salhab, west of Hama, where Iranian forces are also stationed.

The monitor said rockets also hit Syrian government bases in the region surrounding Nairab military airport, which is close to Aleppo International Airport. It was not immediately clear who was responsible for the rocket fire, the Observatory said.

* * *

On Sunday, President Trump spoke with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, according to a White House readout. It said they “discussed the continuing threats and challenges facing the Middle East region, especially the problems posed by the Iranian regime’s destabilizing activities.” The call took place just hours before Netanyahu met for the first time with Trump’s new Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, who is visiting the Middle East.

Earlier Sunday, Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman said Israel will maintain freedom of operation in Syria.

“We have no intention to attack Russia or to interfere in domestic Syrian issues,” Lieberman said at the annual Jerusalem Post conference. “But if somebody thinks that it is possible to launch missiles or to attack Israel or even our aircraft, no doubt we will respond and we will respond very forcefully.”

end

At 1025: Israel to announce dramatic news on Iran at 8 pm Israeli time/1pm est

(courtesy zerohedge)

Israel Closes Airspace Near Syria Border Ahead Of Netanyahu Speech With “Dramatic News About Iran”; Oil Surges

Moments ago, Israel’s Channel10 reported that Netanyahu is set to make “significant” televised announcement on Iran on Monday evening at 8pm local time (5pm GMT) in what his office said would be “dramatic news about Iran” and “significant development regarding” the Iran nuclear agreement and which will reportedly influence the world.

עמית סגל Amit Segal

✔@amit_segal

מדובר במאגר מסמכים ענק שנתפס בידי ישראל ומוכיח לפי הטענה שאיראן רימתה את העולם ביחס לתכנית הגרעין שלה

As Channel 10 adds, Netanyahu previously relayed the Iran info to Trump on Saturday and Pompeo on Sunday, during his visit to Israel.

The speech will come after Israel’s security cabinet convened for an impromptu, unscheduled meeting in the wake of the strike on Syria overnight, which as we noted earlier reportedly killed 11 Iranians.

Meanwhile, hinting that Israel may be about to launch another, far more powerful strike on Syria, Ynet reports that Israel has closed its airspace near the Golan Heights and the Israel-Syria border, most likely in anticipation of one or more bombing/missile attacks on Syrian territory.

Having slumped earlier following the disappointing German inflation data, WTI has regained all losses on the news that Israel may be about to attack Syria, even following Putin’s direct warning to Netanyahu not to continue airstrikes on Syria.

Developing story

end

Not surprising, Netanyahu claims that Iran has and is trying to produce nuclear weapons in a secret place in Tehran.  The project is called “Project Amad”:

(courtesy zerohedge)

Netanyahu Claims Iran Had Plan To Produce Nuclear Weapons

Oil is soaring to $69.34/bbl, the highest price since 2014, after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused Iran of secretly developing and building nuclear weapons.

As we noted earlier, according to Axios Bibi’s speech would be “hugely helpful for Trump” as it “builds the public case for Trump to blow up the Iran deal on May 12 by reimposing sanctions on Iran’s oil exports and central bank.”

In other words, it was up to Netanyahu to provide the media with cover for the next regional conflict: that between the US, its allies, Saudi Arabia and of course Israel on one side and Iran, Syria, Russia, and potentially China on the other. Or, as some would say, a true potential world war.

And sure enough, Bibi did not disappoint, revealing the Iranian “Atomic Archive” according to which as part of Project Amad, Tehran is secretly developing nuclear weapons.

Some highlights from Bibi’s just concluded speech:

• NETANYAHU SAYS ISRAEL CAN REVEAL “NEW AND CONCLUSIVE PROOF” THAT IRAN HAS BEEN HIDING NUCLEAR WEAPONS ACTIVITY
• NETANYAHU SAYS HE WILL SHOW `SOMETHING WORLD HAS NEVER SEEN’
• NETANYAHU SAYS HE WILL REVEAL IRAN’S `SECRET NUCLEAR FILES
• NETANYAHU SAYS “IRAN LIED” AFTER SIGNING NUCLEAR DEAL
• ISRAEL HAS SECRET FILES FROM IRAN NUCLEAR PLANS: NETANYAHU

• NETANYAHU SAYS ISRAEL HAS SHARED INCRIMINATING FILES WITH U.S.
• NETANYAHU SAYS U.S. HAS VERIFIED AUTHENTICITY OF FILES
• NETANHAYU SAYS IRAN HAD SECRET PLAN TO BUILD NUCLEAR WEAPONS

The punchline: Netanyahu accuses Iran of having a secret plan called “Project Amad“whose has a goal to produce five 10-kiloton nuclear weapons:

And some more soundbites:

• NETANYAHU SAYS PROJECT HAD ALL COMPONENTS FOR NUCLEAR WEAPONS
• NETANYAHU SAYS FILES PROVE IRAN `BRAZENLY LYING’
• NETANYAHU DISPLAYS ALLEGED IMAGES OF SECRET IRAN ARCHIVES
• NETANYAHU SAYS COVERT WORK CONTINUED BY IRAN OVER THE YEARS
• NETANYAHU SAYS 100,000 `SECRET FILES’ PROVE IRAN LYING
• NETANYAHU SAYS IRAN DEAL `SHOULD NEVER HAVE BEEN CONCLUDED’

And now the ball is in Trump’s court:

• NETANYAHU SAYS HE’S SURE TRUMP WILL `DO RIGHT THING’ ON DEAL

Which means that Trump’s next tweet could end the price of oil soaring, and potentially greenlight a middle-eastern conflict far greater than the proxy war in Syria.

end

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

7. OIL ISSUES

China’s future oil volumes increasing and gaining momentum.  This will be bad for the dollar and their petro dollar scheme

(courtesy zerohedge)

China’s Oil Futures Are Gaining Momentum

Authored by Nick Cunningham via OilPrice.com,

China’s new oil futures contract is gaining some momentum as a fixture on the global oil market, although hurdles remain before it can become a key benchmark for Asia.

China launched its yuan-denominated oil benchmark in March to much fanfare, after years of planning and delays. The logic of starting up an oil futures contract in China is obvious. China is the largest crude oil importer in the world, and its growing appetite for crude has increased the urgency to establish a contract based on local supply and demand conditions. Importing such heavy volumes at dollar-denominated prices exposes Chinese refiners and consumers to currency risk. A yuan contract mitigates some of that risk.

Beyond those concerns, the yuan contract also augments the global status of the Chinese currency. China is the world’s second largest economy and shifting more global trade into yuan advances Chinese influence.

However, the new contract on the Shanghai International Exchange still has to overcome some hurdles before it can be taken seriously as a premier benchmark in the global oil market. Just because the contract was launched does not mean it will become dominant, or even relevant. Previous contracts have failed to garner sufficient liquidity and ultimately have been discontinued or have wallowed in irrelevance.

The Dubai Mercantile Exchange’s Oman futures contract has been somewhat reflective of conditions in the Asian market, incorporating medium and heavy sour blends. But “its daily traded volume and open interest (number of contracts outstanding) have remained at low levels since its inception in 2007, indicating it is not actively used among market participants,” the EIA wrote last week.

As Reuters noted in early April, there are several ingredients for success. First, the contract must serve a need for hedging. Second, it has to attract enough traders in order to build liquidity. Finally, restrictions on trading, speculation, and capital controls must not be too onerous.

Because China is already the world’s largest oil importer, the Shanghai contract can obviously meet the need for hedging. It also has a sizable pool of refiners and traders, which should allow the contract to build liquidity. An added advantage is that China imports medium and heavy sour crudes, while Brent and WTI generally reflect lighter and sweeter varieties. The need for some differentiation is there.

Reuters notes the biggest uncertainty is over intervention in the market from the Chinese government, which could deter investors. But the desire by the Chinese government itself to successfully build the Shanghai benchmark might be a strong enough incentive to allow trading to proceed largely uninhibited.

As such, the prospects look good for the Shanghai oil contract and trading volumes have picked up.

For China, the trading of oil contracts in yuan reduces currency risk for Chinese consumers, and thus, the Chinese economy. Yet, with the rest of the world buying and selling oil in U.S. dollars, for oil traders, a contract denominated in yuan creates new currency risk. That could be a big deterrent and obstacle for the growth of the Shanghai contract, an obstacle that other futures contracts did not have to overcome. For instance, the USD/CNY exchange rate has appreciated 8 percent over the past year, the EIA points out.

However, the global oil trade is gradually shifting east since that is where demand is rising the fastest. In 2017, the EIA says that Asia and Oceana accounted for 35 percent of global demand for oil and other liquid fuels, up from just 30 percent in 2008. That portion will continue to expand with China and India accounting for an outsized portion of demand growth going forward.

That puts additional weight on the importance of a benchmark that reflects supply and demand conditions in Asia.Over the longer-term, the potential peak and decline of oil demand in the OECD West makes Asia even more important as a hub for the oil market.

Already, the Shanghai contract has seen more trading volume for September 2018 delivery than the Oman contract. But volumes are still a tiny fraction compared to WTI and Brent. It could be a while before the Shanghai contract becomes a truly global benchmark. But it is on its way to becoming an important regional benchmark at least, reflecting medium and heavy sour conditions in Asia.

(Click to enlarge)

8. EMERGING MARKET

Venezuela

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

HARVEY