MAY 1/WITH EUROPE AND ASIA ON HOLIDAY, THE CROOKS CONTINUED TO WHACK GOLD/SILVER; GOLD DOWN $12.15/SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TO $16.12/MBS SHOCKS THE WORLD BY TELLING PALESTINIANS TO MAKE A DEAL OR SHUT UP/LEADING MEXICAN CANDIDATE THREATENS CITIZENS WITH CONFISCATION/

 

 

GOLD: $1306.20  DOWN $ 12.15  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver: $16.12 DOWN 24 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Closing access prices:

Gold $1304.00

silver: $16.16

For comex gold:

MAY/

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR MAY CONTRACT:3 NOTICE(S) FOR 300 OZ.

TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR 13 FOR 1300 OZ (0.040 tonnes)

For silver:

MAY

2671 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

13,350,000 OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 3451 for 17,255,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: BID $8989/OFFER $9089: down $206(morning)

Bitcoin: BID/ $8973/offer $9072: DOWN $224  (CLOSING/5 PM)

 

end

First Shanghai gold fix comes at 10 pm est

The second Shanghai gold fix:  2:15 pm

First Shanghai gold fix gold: 10 pm est:  1326.03

NY price  at the same time: 1313.15

PREMIUM TO NY SPOT: $12.88

ss

Second gold fix early this morning:  1327.26

USA gold at the exact same time:  1312.40

PREMIUM TO NY SPOT:  $14.86

AGAIN, SHANGHAI REJECTS NEW YORK PRICING.

WE WILL NOT PROVIDE LONDON FIXES AS THEY ARE NOT ACCURATE AS TO WHAT IS GOING ON AT THE SAME TIME FRAME.

 FEDERAL RESERVE OF NEW YORK/EARMARKED GOLD REPORT
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York releases a report on the 29th of every month as to what foreign gold that is stored there is repatriated back to its mother country. They generally report that a country wishes to repatriate like they did with Germany, Holland and Venezuela.  Turkey announced that it has told the FRBNY to repatriate its gold back to Turkey.  The FRBNY did not make an announcement on that issue:
Here is the report for March 29.2018:
The total number of oz of gold that left the FRBNY during the month March was $17 million  and  the gold leaving was priced at $42.22 per oz
Thus  $42.22 dollars equals one oz
17 million dollars equals 402,652.77 oz
Thus a measly 12.524 tonnes leaves the shores of NY for Instanbul
Turkey has in excess of 300 tonnes of gold stored in NY
end

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST  ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE 3206 CONTRACTS FROM  190,177  RISING TO 193,383  DESPITE YESTERDAY’S 11 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING. AFTER A  STRING OF 4 CONSECUTIVE OI GAINS, WE ENDED OUR 5 CONSECUTIVE DROPS IN OI WITH YESTERDAY’S RISE AND WE NOW HAVE TWO CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF OI GAINS.  WE ARE NOW WITNESSING OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY COMEX LONG LIQUIDATION AS WE ENTERED INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY AS LONGS PACK THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATE OVER TO LONDON.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD AN FAIR SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP : 0 EFP CONTRACTS FOR APRIL0 EFP’S FOR MAY , 2900 EFP’S FOR JULY AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE OF 2900 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 2900 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 2900 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 17.875 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE FALL IN  SILVER PRICE (11 CENTS) AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR MAY COMEX DELIVERY. (24.1 MILLION OZ)

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF APRIL: (FINAL)

2900 CONTRACTS (FOR 1 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 2900 CONTRACTS) OR 17.875 MILLION OZ: AVERAGE PER DAY: 2900 CONTRACTS OR 17.875 MILLION OZ/DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH:  17.875 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 2.55% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S1,160      MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018:                                               236.879     MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018:                                               244.95         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018:                                       236.67         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL 2018:                                          385.75         MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED RISE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX OF 3206 DESPITE THE  11 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE. WE HAVE NOW ENTERED THE NEW ACTIVE MONTH OF MAY.   THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT IN FACT WE HAD AN STRONG  SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2900 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) . FROM THE CME DATA:  0 CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED FOR APRIL, 0  EFP’S WERE ISSUED  FOR THE  MONTH OF MAY, AND 2900 EFP CONTRACTS FOR JULY,   FOR  A DELIVERABLE FORWARD CONTRACT OVER IN LONDON WITH A FIAT BONUS (TOTAL: 2900). TODAY WE GAINED 6106  TOTAL OI CONTRACTS  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: i.e. 2900 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH AN INCREASE OF 3206  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH THE  FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER OF 11 CENTS AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $16.36 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN THIS  ACTIVE MAY DELIVERY MONTH. IT SURE SEEMS THAT WE MUST HAVE HAD SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING ON BOTH EXCHANGES.

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. .967 MILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 138% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MAY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 2671 NOTICE(S) FOR 1,335,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER, WE HAVE NOW SET THE NEW RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51  ON APRIL 9.2018.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL: 2.485 MILLION OZ  AND MAY: 24.1 MILLION OZ )
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER  243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/ (FINAL)

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT). IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE BANKER CAPITULATION IN SILVER AS THEY STRUGGLE TO REMOVE SOME OF THEIR HUGE OBLIGATIONS.

In gold, the open interest ROSE BY A STRONG 7939 CONTRACTS UP TO 506,226 DESPITE THE FALL IN THE GOLD PRICE/YESTERDAY’S TRADING (LOSS OF $4.05).  WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY.  THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 5747 CONTRACTS :   JUNE SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 5747 CONTRACTS , MAY SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 0 CONTRACTS  AND AUGUST SAW THE ISSUANCE OF: 0 CONTRACTS WITH ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The new OI for the gold complex rests at 503,700. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A HUMONGOUS SIZED  OI GAIN IN CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 7939  OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND AN GOOD SIZED 5747 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON.THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN: 13,686 CONTRACTS OR 1,368,600 OZ = 42.569 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS OCCURRED WITH A LOSS OF $4.05 DURING YESTERDAY’S RAID???

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 7816  EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY : 5747 CONTRACTS OR 54700  OZ OR 17.875 TONNES (1 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 5747 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY OR 574,700 OZ/ TRADING DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :    THIS MONTH IN 1 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 17.875 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 17.85/2550 x 100% TONNES =  0.700% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN APRIL ALONE.*** THE ACCUMULATION OF EFP CONTRACTS IS RISING PER MONTH.

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE 2,776.30*  TONNES   *SURPASSED ANNUAL PROD’N

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018:           653.22  TONNES

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018:         649.45 TONNES

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018:                741.89 TONNES  (22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR APRIL 2018:                   713.84 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

Result: A HUGE  INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 7939  DESPITE THE FALL  IN PRICE // GOLD TRADING YESTERDAY ($4.05 LOSS). WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 5747 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 5747 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED NET GAIN OF 13,686 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

5747 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 7,939 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 42.569 TONNES).

we had: 3 notice(s) filed upon for 300 oz of gold at the comex.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD…

WITH GOLD DOWN  $12.15 /NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

Inventory rests tonight: 871.20 tonnes.

SLV/

WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.899 MILLION OZ/

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE 3206 CONTRACTS from 190,177 UP TO 193,383 (AND CLOSER TO THE  NEW COMEX RECORD SET /APRIL 9/2017 AT 243,411/SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). THE PREVIOUS RECORD OTHER THAN WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER ONE YEAR AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89. AFTER WE HAVE HAD PREVIOUSLY FOUR CONSECUTIVE OI GAINS YESTERDAY ENDED FIVE  CONSECUTIVE OI DROPS AND NOW TODAY WE HAVE TWO CONSECUTIVE OI GAINS.  OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS CONTINUES AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE: 0 EFP CONTRACTS FOR APRIL, 206 EFP CONTRACTS FOR MAY  (WE DO NOT GET A LOOK AT THESE CONTRACTS AS IT IS PRIVATE BUT THE CFTC DOES AUDIT THEM), AND 2900 EFP’S FOR JULY AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  1272 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 3206 CONTRACTS TO THE 2900 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG GAIN OF 6106 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  30.53 MILLION OZ!!! AND THIS OCCURRED DESPITE A  FALL IN PRICE OF 11 CENTS.  THE BANKERS ORCHESTRATED THEIR RAID THROUGHOUT LAST WEEK  DESPERATELY TRYING TO PARE THEIR GIGANTIC OPEN INTEREST SHORT ON BOTH EXCHANGES BUT TO NO AVAIL. JUDGING BY THE RECORD NUMBER OF ISSUANCE DURING LAST MONTH OF APRIL AT 385.75 MILLION OZ. I DO NOT THINK THAT OUR BANKERS HAVE BEEN TOO SUCCESSFUL. THE CONSTANT RAIDS ARE NOW BEING CALLED UPON BY OUR BANKER FRIENDS ARE DONE IN AN ATTEMPT TO SHAKE AS MANY SILVER LEAVES FROM THE SILVER TREE AS POSSIBLE.

RESULT: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE FALL IN SILVER PRICING / YESTERDAY (11 CENTS/) . BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER GOOD SIZED 2900 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR APRIL, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed   /Hang Sang CLOSED    / The Nikkei closed UP 40.16 POINTS OR 0.18%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .47%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.3322/Oil UP to 67.95 dollars per barrel for WTI and 74.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED DEEPLY IN THE GREEN.   ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.3322 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3341/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING A LITTLE WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE A FULL TRADE WAR IS BEGINNING/

/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

 

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA

Looks like Trump scored on this one:  there will be a historic summit with Trump at the DMZ

(courtesy zerohedge)

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 c CHINA

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Greece/Turkey

This could get ugly..Turkey is holding a massive number of refugees and they are also angry at the West.  Turkey has also called upon the FRBNY to repatriate its gold.  Greece is fearing that Turkey will unload all of their refugees onto their shores.

(courtesy zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)Saudi Arabia/Israel/Palestine/Many fell off their chair with this bombshell:  MBS states that Palestinians must accept peace or shut up

( zerohedge)

ii)Iran/Israel

Iran furious with the Israeli accusations while the uSA confirms the findings by Israel

( zerohedge)

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

Mexico/usa

The Peso tumbled badly after Mexico’s leading party warns of confiscation  (if companies do not do want the new government wishes them to do).  This is something that Trump does not want to see as he is trying to put his head around the NAFTA agreement

( zerohedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

8. EMERGING MARKET

i)Venezuela

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

iii) FRBNY/ new report on March ear marked gold movement
(Harvey)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

i)EARLY MORNING TRADING:

USA expansion is now the second longest on record

( zerohedge)

ii)Trump delays steel tariff decision to June 1/2018 but exempts South Korea altogether\

( zerohedge)

iii)Today’s data release:

Today we again see a complete polar opposite report on the manufacturing health of the uSA.  Markit always issues bullish manufacturing reports and lately ISM the opposite.  However both are flashing warning lights on inflation

( zerohedge)

iv)Goldman Sachs fined 110 million dollars for rigging the foreign exchange market

( zerohedge)

v)SWAMP STORIES

 a)Mueller’s questions to Trump leaked( zerohedge)

b)trump furious at the Mueller leak and not one question on Russian collusion with the election

( zerohedge

Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest ROSE BY A VERY STRONG 7,939 CONTRACTS UP to an OI level 503,700 DESPITE THE FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($4.05 LOSS/ YESTERDAY’S TRADING).   FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE.   THE CME REPORTS THAT  THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED  COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS. WE HAD A GOOD SIZED 5747 CONTRACTS ISSUED: FOR  JUNE, 5747 CONTRACTS ISSUED,  FOR AUGUST ZERO AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:  TOTAL  5747 CONTRACTS.  THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 13,686 OI CONTRACTS IN THAT 5747 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED  13,686  COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 13,686 contracts OR 1,368,600  OZ OR 42.569 TONNES.

Result: A INCREASE IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST DESPITE THE FALL  IN PRICE YESTERDAY  (ENDING UP WITH A LOSS OF $4.05)THE  TOTAL OPEN INTEREST GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 13,686 OI CONTRACTS..

We have now entered the non  active contract month of MAY where we LOST 29 contracts LOWERING TO  384 contracts. We had 10 notices filed upon yesterday, so we lost 19 contracts or an additional 1900 oz will not stand in this non active delivery month of May.

The really big June contract month saw a LOSS of 8009 contracts DOWN to 346,862 contracts.   The next big delivery month after June is August and here the OI ROSE BY 15,480 contracts UP to 73,366.

We had 3 notice(s) filed upon today for 300  oz at the comex

THERE IS NO QUESTION THAT THE COMEX DOES NOT HAVE ANY  GOLD TO SATISFY UPON OUR LONGS.

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY: 269,983  contracts

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY: 329,826 contracts

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE 3206 CONTRACTS FROM 190,177 UP TO 193,383 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS)  DESPITE THE  11 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING. SINCE WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY. WE  WERE  INFORMED THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED  2900 EFP CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR JULY AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS.  THESE EFPS WERE ISSUED TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 2900.   ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 6106  SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A 3206 CONTRACT GAIN AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 2900 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON. DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE BOYS WERE VERY BUSY NEGOTIATING LONG COMEX CONTRACTS EMIGRATING TO LONDON,(AND WAITING FOR THEIR PASSPORTS)

NET GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:   6106  CONTRACTS 

AMOUNT STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX

We are now in the  active delivery month of MAY and here the front month LOST 907 contracts FALLING TO 3915 contracts. We had 780 notices filed upon yesterday so we lost 127 contracts or 635,000 additional ounces will not stand for delivery in this  active delivery month of May.

June saw a GAIN of 99 contracts to stand at 906.  The next big delivery month for silver is July and here the OI ROSE by 3648 contracts UP to 140,156. The next active delivery month after July for silver is September and here the OI ROSE by 216 contracts UP to 19,251

We had 2671 notice(s) filed for 13,350,000 OZ for the APRIL 2018 contract for silver

INITIAL standings for MAY/GOLD

MAY 1/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil OZ
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  nil OZ
No of oz served (contracts) today
3 notice(s)
 300 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
381 contracts
(38100 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
13 notices
1300 OZ
0.0311 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz
we had 0 kilobar transaction/
We had 0 inventory movement at the dealer accounts
total inventory deposit into the dealer accounts:  NIL  oz
total inventory withdrawals out of dealer accounts; nil oz
we had 1 withdrawals out of the customer account:
i) out of Scotia: 128.604 oz
total customer withdrawals:  128.604 oz
we had 0 customer deposit
total customer deposits: nil oz
we had 4 adjustment(s)
i) Out of Scotia: 1,569.68 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account of Scotia
ii) Out of Delaware:  4,157.152 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account of Delaware
iii) Out of Brinks: 21,735.963 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account of Brinks
iv) Out of I-Delaware:  96.45 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer accoun of I D

For MAY:
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 3 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to  3 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAY. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (13) x 100 oz or 1300 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY. (384 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (3 x 100 oz per contract) equals 39,400 oz, the number of ounces standing in this active month of APRIL (1.225 tonnes)

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAY contract month:

No of notices served (13 x 100 oz or ounces + {(384)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (3 x 100 oz )which equals 39,400 oz standing in this  active delivery month of MAY . THERE IS 10.382 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY SO FAR.

WE LOST 1900 OZ OF GOLD THAT WILL NOT STAND AT THE COMEX AND THESE GUYS MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

total registered or dealer gold:  306,237.466 oz or 9.525 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   9,049,628.092 oz 281.48 tones
THE COMEX IS AGAIN IN STRESS AS ONLY 10.382 TONNES OF GOLD ARE LEFT TO SERVICE DELIVERIES. THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD AT THE COMEX TO SERVE UPON LONGS AND THUS THE REASON FOR THE EFP TRANSFER OVER TO LONDON.

IN THE LAST 18 MONTHS 73 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE APRIL DELIVERY MONTH

MAY INITIAL standings/SILVER

MAY 1/ 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 286,942.240 oz
HSBC
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
325,548.39
oz
Brinks
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
604,117.910  oz
Scotia
No of oz served today (contracts)
2671
CONTRACT(S)
(37,350,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
1244 contracts
(6,220,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 3451 contracts

(17,255,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 1 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

i) Into dealer: Brinks: 325,548.390 oz

total dealer deposits: 325,548.390 oz

we had 1 deposits into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 140 million oz of  total silver inventory or 53.4% of all official comex silver. (140 million/263 million)

JPMorgan did not  deposit  into its warehouses (official) today.

ii) Scotia 604,117.910 oz

total deposits today: 604,117.910  oz

we had 1 withdrawals from the customer account;

i) Out of HSBC;  286,942.240 oz

total withdrawals;  286,942.240  oz

we had 2 adjustment

i) Out of Brinks:

979,859.530 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account of Brinks

.

total dealer silver:  65.226 million

total dealer + customer silver:  262.948 million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the MAY. contract month is represented by 2671 contract(s) FOR 13,350,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3451 x 5,000 oz = 17,255,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY. (3915) and the number of notices served upon today (2671 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the MAY contract month: 3451(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAY(3915) -number of notices served upon today (2471)x 5000 oz equals 23,475,000 oz of silver standing for the MAY contract month 

WE LOST 127 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 635,000 OZ WILL NOT STAND AT THE COMEX AND THESE GUYS MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 79,660 CONTRACTS (WOW)  635 MILLION OZ OR 89% OF ANNUAL PRODUCTION.

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 78,981 CONTRACTS (my goodness)

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF  78,981 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO 394 MILLION OZ  OR 56.4% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -1.13% (MAY1/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -0.22% to NAV (MAY 1/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -1.13%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ territory at -0.22%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail but being rescued by Sprott.
Sprott WINS hostile 3.1 billion bid to take over Central Fund of Canada

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA): NAV FALLS TO -1.98`%: NAV 13.43/TRADING 13.29//DISCOUNT 1.91.

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

MAY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.15/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.20 TONNES

APRIL 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.05/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.20 TONNES.

APRIL 27./WITH GOLD UP $5.90/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.20 TONNES/

APRIL 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.20 TONNES

APRIL 25/AFTER 9 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF NO MOVEMENT OF GOLD INTO OUT OF THE GLD, WE HAD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.31 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.20 TONNES.

APRIL 24./WITH GOLD UP $9.90, WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES/

APRIL 23.2018/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.00/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES.

APRIL 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.20: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES

APRIL 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.25: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES/

APRIL 18/WITH GOLD UP $3.65: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES

APRIL 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES/

April 16/WITH GOLD UP$2.80/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES/

April 13/WITH GOLD UP $6.15, A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.90 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES

April 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.40/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.99 TONNES

April 11/WITH GOLD UP $13.85/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859,99 TONNES

APRIL 10/WITH GOLD UP $5.25/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.99 TONNES

APRIL 9/WITH GOLD UP$4.50/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.99 TONNES

APRIL 6/WITH GOLD UP $7.50 ,A HUGE CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ A DEPOSIT OF 5.90 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.99 TONNES

APRIL 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.20 WE HAD TWO ENTRIES: 1) TINY WITHDRAWAL OF .28 TONNES TO PAY FOR FEES AND 2) A DEPOSIT OF 2.06 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.09 TONNES

April 4/WITH GOLD UP $2.90 WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.31 TONNES

APRIL 3./WITH GOLD DOWN $9.30 WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.31 TONNES

APRIL 2/WITH GOLD UP $19.50, WE HAD A BIG  CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 6.19 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.31 TONNES

MARCH 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.20 AND OPTIONS EXPIRY FINISHED, WE HAD NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS A 846.12 TONNES

March 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.70, ANOTHER RAID ORCHESTRATED, AGAIN NO SURPRISES AS WE WITNESS ANOTHER 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD REMOVED/INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.12 TONNES

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

MAY 1/2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 871.20 tonnes

*IN LAST 373 TRADING DAYS: 69.84 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 323 TRADING DAYS: A NET 86.46 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO GLD INVENTORY.

end

Now the SLV Inventory/

MAY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.899 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.899 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.899 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENT/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316,899 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 25./WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.899 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 24./WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS/SOMETHING SPOOKED OUR CROOKS TO ADD SOME PAPER SILVER: A DEPOSIT OF 1.601 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.899 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 23.2018/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS, ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL FROM THE SLV INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.413 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.298 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.13 MILLION OZ//SLV RESTS TONIGHT AT 316.711 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 19/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: WE HAD A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.355 MILLION OZ/ MAKES ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE!!/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.841 MILLION OZ

APRIL 18/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ

APRIL 17/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS  AT 320.196 MILLION OZ

April 16/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/

April 13/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ.

April 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/

April 11/2018/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS:  NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 10/WITH GOLD UP 8 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 9/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS/WE HAD NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 6/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS, WE HAD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.319 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ

APRIL 5/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.877 MILLION OZ/

April 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS/A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A WITHRAWAL OF 135,000 OZ AND THIS IS PROBABLY TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.877 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 3./WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 2/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 29/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS, THE CROOKS DECIDED THAT THEY HAD BETTER ADD SOME 943,000 PAPER OZ TO THEIR INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ

March 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS/AGAIN NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ

MAY 1/2018:  NO  CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:  

Inventory 316.899 million oz

end

6 Month MM GOFO 1.99/ and libor 6 month duration 2.49

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0FO+ 1.99%

libor 2.49 FOR 6 MONTHS/

GOLD LENDING RATE: .51%

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.77%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.49

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.28

end

Major gold/silver trading /commentaries for MONDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.

GOLD/SILVER

“Blood In The Streets” Of U.S. Gold Bullion Coin Market

U.S. Mint American Eagle gold coin sales collapse to weakest April since 2007 giving contrarian value buyers another buy signal

by Renita D. Young of Reuters

Sales of U.S. Mint American Eagle gold coins dropped to their weakest April since 2007, while silver coin purchases for the month rose 10 percent higher than last year, U.S. government data showed on Monday.

The U.S. Mint sold 4,500 ounces of American Eagle gold coins in April, down 25 percent from the year prior. However, April sales were up 29 percent from March.

During April, spot gold prices rallied to a 2-1/2-month high of $1,365.23 per ounce as concerns over escalating tensions in Syria, U.S. Sanctions on Russia and the U.S.-China trade stand-off weighed on stock markets and helped to knock the dollar index to a two-week low against a basket of currencies.

But later in the month, spot gold prices dipped after the Federal Reserve said the U.S. economy remained on track for continued growth and signaled more interest rate hikes for the year.

Higher interest rates make gold a less appealing asset to investors since it does not draw interest.

U.S. retail investors have also gradually lost their appetite for physical gold as buoyant stock markets offered tempting alternatives, and more coins were being sold back onto the market, further eroding demand for newly minted products.

The U.S. Mint sold 915,000 ounces of American Eagle silver coins in April, the data showed, unchanged from March. April silver coin sales were 9.6 percent higher than in 2017.

Artice from Reuters here

Listen on SoundCloud , Blubrry & iTunesWatch on YouTube below

News and Commentary

U.S. Mint American Eagle gold coin sales at weakest April since 2007 (Reuters.com)

Gold inches down as dollar stays firm near 3-1/2-month peak (Reuters.com)

Stocks in Japan Trade Mixed; Dollar Holds Gains (Bloomberg.com)

U.S. Stocks Start Busy Earnings Week on Down Note (Bloomberg.com)

Pending-home sales crawl higher as inventory shortage turns urgent (MarketWatch.com)


Source: Frank Holmes & US Global Investors via Palisade

SWOT Analysis: Gold Continues Moving West to East (GoldSeek.com)

Gold Demand Grows While Mine Supply Declines (Palisade-research.com)

Savers are Just Collateral Damage (Monetary-Metals.com)

Syrian Army: “Enemy” Rockets Strike 2 Bases, 11 Iranians Killed (ZeroHedge.com)

Chinese Smartphone Sales Collapse In “Biggest Decline Ever” (ZeroHedge.com)

Listen on SoundCloud , Blubrry & iTunesWatch on YouTube below

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

30 Apr: USD 1,316.25, GBP 958.62 & EUR 1,087.62 per ounce
27 Apr: USD 1,317.70, GBP 954.41 & EUR 1,090.79 per ounce
26 Apr: USD 1,321.90, GBP 949.52 & EUR 1,085.94 per ounce
25 Apr: USD 1,325.70, GBP 949.47 & EUR 1,085.48 per ounce
24 Apr: USD 1,327.35, GBP 951.84 & EUR 1,087.76 per ounce
23 Apr: USD 1,328.00, GBP 950.45 & EUR 1,085.64 per ounce
20 Apr: USD 1,340.15, GBP 953.52 & EUR 1,089.14 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

30 Apr: USD 16.38, GBP 11.93 & EUR 13.54 per ounce
27 Apr: USD 16.53, GBP 12.01 & EUR 13.68 per ounce
26 Apr: USD 16.58, GBP 11.87 & EUR 13.61 per ounce
25 Apr: USD 16.57, GBP 11.87 & EUR 13.57 per ounce
24 Apr: USD 16.60, GBP 11.90 & EUR 13.59 per ounce
23 Apr: USD 16.94, GBP 12.14 & EUR 13.85 per ounce
20 Apr: USD 17.11, GBP 12.15 & EUR 13.91 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– Most Important Chart Of The Century For Investors?
– Gold Mining Shares Are Speculative Making Gold Bullion A Better Investment
– Gold Price Increasingly Influenced By Declining Dollar Rather Than Interest Rates
– Cash “Vanishes” From Bank Accounts In Ireland 
– Russia Buys 300,000 Ounces Of Gold In March – Nears 2,000 Tons In Gold Reserves
– Family Offices and HNWs Invest In Gold Again
– New All Time Record Highs For Gold In 2019
– Palladium Bullion Surges 17% In 9 Days On Russian Supply Concerns
– Silver Bullion Remains Good Value On Positive Supply And Demand Factors
– London House Prices See Fastest Quarterly Fall Since 2009 Crisis
– Global Debt Bubble Hits New All Time High – One Quadrillion Reasons To Buy Gold
– Oil Surges Over 8%, Gold and Silver Marginally Higher, Stocks Gain In Volatile Week
– EU and Euro Exposed To Risks Including Trade Wars and War With Russia In Middle East

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director
END

Andrew Maguire’s Kinesis money which is a “bitcoin” but backed 100% by allocated gold and silver is set to go.

it think it would be a great idea to look at this!

please read at:  https://kinesis.money/#/

(Andrew Maguire)

Andrew Maguire

2:57 PM (1 hour ago)
to me

Harvey

Here It is my friend!  https://kinesis.money/#/ Please let everyone know.

Let catch up on Monday if you have time. We have billions in the hopper ready to be allocated on the 1st day of trading. The paper market days are over.

Warm regards

Andy

end

A terrific commentary from Nicholas as he beautifully articulates the fraud with respect to the COMEX issuance of EFP’s  to London based serial forwards

this is a must read if you want to understand the fraud that we are facing….l

(courtesy Nicholas Biezanek)

EFP Contracts are merely an extension of overall chicanery at the LBMA/COMEX.

Although Exchange for Physical (EFP) contracts  have dotted the gold/silver trading landscape for many years, ostensibly for utilization in an emergency of a  physical gold/silver deficit crisis, the emergence of EFPs as a routine vehicle for alleviating intolerable pressure on the COMEX OI position was first spotted back in 2017. Since the start of 2018, Harvey Organ has meticulously detailed the daily volume of EFP contracts transferred (almost exclusively?) to the LBMA for ‘execution’. Execution is placed in inverted commas, because the whole process is opaque (fraudulent?) and I have not sighted any definitive explanation of what is actually transpiring, although Gijsbert Groenewegen made a valiant attempt at seeking to explain what little information is available.

The table below summarizes Harvey Organ’s accumulation of daily observations and the YTD volume of these EFPs now far exceeds total annual gold mine production in just four months!

Note 1 below itemizes global gold production in 2016. The total of gold mine output in 2016 was only 2,399 tonnes (excluding the output of Russia and China, which is never made available in the West). Already, after the precise documentation of only four months aggregate YTD 2018 EFPs, we can easily discern that EFPs cannot possibly entail any material amounts of physical gold delivery, unless LBMA hoardings are being disgorged to satisfy this new dimension to physical gold demand, whereby an abundance of COMEX paper contracts miraculously metamorphize into the real deal. Let us delve into the opaque world of the LBMA to seek to obtain some clarity.

Since July 2016, the LBMA has published total loco London gold holdings, but this data is three months in arrears (the reason for this inordinate delay is not immediately obvious if all daily movements are meticulously controlled?) From this LBMA data and that of the BOE and GLD, it is possible to record the total loco London gold holdings, and then the BOE and GLD holdings that are both included in the total loco London figures. It is a simple matter to compute the residual non BOE/GLD gold that is held by the remaining LBMA custodians. The July 2016 data (the first month of publication by LBMA) is recorded in the table below for contextualization and indeed all figures subsequently recorded from July 2016 onwards by the LBMA are fairly constant, without any major variations between August 2016 and November 2017.

Hence this table evidences that the EFP contracts of 653.22 tonnes issued in Jan 2018 had absolutely no impact on the gold holdings in loco London and are a manifest fraud.

We will look again on 1st June 2018, when the 28th February 2018 LBMA data is published and see if the Feb. YTD EPFs of 1,302.67 has any impact on loco London and so on and so on, but the answer is clearly pre-ordained. By the end of December 2018, will this YTD EFP total be in the vicinity of 8,000 tonnes?

Let us now have a critical look under the veneer of the LBMA. (There are some comments on recent negative developments in note 7). The LBMA claims to trade gross about 613 tonnes per day (refer note 2 below). Wow, yippee! Refer, however to note 3 below. Most of this trading is in the form of OTC unallocated (i.e. paper contracts only) and (refer note 4 below) is settled on a net basis.( In case a reader does not understand the exact ‘paper’ nature of unallocated gold contracts, I have included note 5 below.) We have already seen that the volumes of net loco London physical gold remains fairly constant. How about this for a conclusion. The LBMA is a grotesque sham of a market that pushes around a massive volume of unallocated (paper) gold contracts in a totally opaque (OTC) manner with little meaningful delivery of physical gold in recent times other than anecdotal reports of some belated delivery of gold bars bearing 2018 markings; whilst the LBMA maintains some physical gold in loco London, the volume of total claims on this gold is massively and fraudulently fractionally reserved and hidden from any public scrutiny.(The term ‘backwardation’ is being increasingly invoked by commentators and this phenomenon supports the aforementioned statement).The criminal bankers ‘own’ the paper trading systems; they sight all the offers and bids and know where all the stops are placed. At all times remember that all that is sighted and promulgated these days, after suppression of the reporting of the LBMA daily fixes, is exclusively (i.e.100%) a manipulated COMEX/GLOBEX paper price and the physical market for gold has been obliterated from sight as a price discovery mechanism, awaiting its ultimate resurrection in Shanghai (refer below) and/or by the cartel front running and profiteering by the resurgence of the supremacy of physical gold and an almost  certain default in the paper markets coinciding with a frenetic run on the hopelessly fractured and opaque LBMA and its criminal fractional reserving.

We know that the CFTC (despite its annual budget of at least $280 million and 740 staff) has never clamped down on trading violations in respect of manipulative volumes, concentrated trading positions and paper price smashing on a metronomic basis at option expirations etc., but at least we know that the COMEX has a gossamer 10 tonnes of registered physical gold supporting an OI of about 500,000 contracts. Although the COMEX now believes it is prudent to disclaim the reporting of registered gold, does it really make a difference when the Comex delivers no gold to speak of. At what level would the COMEX OI currently be stated without these EFP transfers? Clearly the Cartel has some keen sensitivity to an elevated OI that would be even more absurd than the current level without serial EFP manipulation. The high jacking of the word ‘physical’ in the term EFP is clearly intended to portray a false and misleading sense that these EFP contracts  are somehow executed in respect of delivery and hence, by implication, this co-joined COMEX/LBMA abomination retains its integrity and credibility as a vehicle from which copious physical delivery can be demanded if so desired. (Refer, however, to the MIDAS APPENDIX of 24th May 2018 re a new theory that, deep in the bowels of COMEX chicanery, is a restriction on the obligation of the COMEX to make any physical deliveries of gold exceeding its registered holdings)

Even if we believe these loco London physical gold holdings, what are the total claims on these holdings, given the obscene practice of fractional reserving (at 1000/1 per Andrew Maguire)? Recent history in this new era of the perfection of trading algos that are limited only by ’the speed of light’ indicates that, once a paper price ceiling is ‘set’, the COMEX/GLOBEX price of gold can be held in check by whatever volume of naked paper short contracts is necessary to achieve any pre-ordained level of paper gold price containment. I do not believe that an orderly rise in the price of physical gold is a more likely outcome than an explosive reset against the backdrop of the reports of massive physical gold accumulation by Russia, China, Iran, (Turkey?) and others. This accumulation is part of a grand plan that one day will have its denouement (refer, inter alia, to all the work done by Jim Willie).If I interpret the April 2018 turnover figure correctly on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange site for the petro/yuan front month and inaugural SC1809 contract for final delivery in September 2018, it was Yuan 533.7 billion for April 2018 only. (Refer note 6).The theory is that some (most?) of these Yuan will be making their way over to the Shanghai Gold Exchange on settlement. Did anybody forecast such volumes for the first trading month of the debut front month contract? This is never mentioned at all in MSM .The petro dollar framework, upon which the hegemony of the USD has been based for well over forty years, irrespective of the delinquent conduct of the USA itself, has been irreversibly and manifestly challenged.

The Shanghai physical gold market will explode and, via arbitrage will cause all other physical markets to move in unison. At some point in the not too distant future, this wretched fraud of EFP transfers will be discredited as the volumes start to equate to multiples of annual gold production and far exceed in aggregate the total loco London gold vault holdings. Maybe some other new generation manipulative technique will be devised, but perhaps the final tipping point will soon arrive (via Shanghai in the manner described above?), some 5 full years after the absolute end date initially forecast by Frank Veneroso in his seminal work that influenced the initial formation of GATA’s charter. The USA and UK (and the entire West) are jointly so vulnerable to any exposure of the magnitude of the fraud being perpetrated at the COMEX/LBMA that perhaps one has to look no further for an explanation as to the reason for the tensions with Russia and more recently Iran being ratcheted up to intolerable levels based on manufactured pretexts, the credibility of which are being exposed on a daily basis. War may be the only possible distraction to kick the can further down the road. Whilst the West ,however, has become inured to endemic mass banker criminality and theft on an industrial scale and christened such criminality ‘re-hypothecation’ to make it appear quasi legitimate, the scale of this particular fraud enables it to be lethally weaponized by the East if they so desire, without even deploying any conventional or new era weapons of war.

The conclusion expressed in this article merely reinforces the repeated statement of Harvey Organ concerning the fraudulent nature of these EFP transfers from the COMEX to the LBMA:

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME (Harvey Organ), ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE”.

Maybe the most encouraging aspect of this manifest EFP farce is that this new ‘initiative’ of intricately co-mingling COMEX Fraud with LBMA fraud and the daily accretion to the huge volumes involved in such a short space of time is good evidence that the entire physical gold manipulation infrastructure is subject to levels of stress that are now almost unsustainable and may soon be asphyxiated in its own refluxing vomit.  Remember also that China, Russia and Iran are not acquiring ‘pet rocks’ out of sentimentality, but because the USA fiat dollar, backed only by exponentially expanding trillions of totally unrepayable debt (soon to be even unserviceable debt?) and an outdated, over stretched war machine is no longer fit for purpose as the world’s reserve currency and is destabilizing the future vision that the forward thinking China is seeking to establish. The first line of this commentary mentioned that EFPs were historically a relief mechanism for use in emergencies only. No new antibiotic has been discovered since 1987. Colistin is termed the antibiotic of last resort but as bacteria mutate, colistin is now rolled out far more frequently and some mutations are now resistant even to this last line of defense. By analogy, maybe EFPs are still an emergency vehicle of last resort, but the emergency which EFPs seek to mitigate is now so endemic and chronic that massive amounts of daily doses are now overtly employed as one last desperate ‘throw of the dice’ to prevent a great unravelling of the truly gargantuan extent of the criminal conspiracy to suppress the physical price of gold; as with antibiotics, however, excessive and indiscriminate usage leads to diminished effectiveness en route to total obsolescence.   War drums are beating ever louder whilst the USA is internally totally atrophied and in just four months an unexplained gargantuan sink hole of 2,758 tonnes in the physical gold market has just opened up. Nothing to see here. What can possibly go wrong?

NOTES 1 to 8 follow below

NOTES 2 to 8 follow below

  1. MONTHLY STATISTICS PER INTERNATIONAL ENERGY EXCHANGE

The April 2018 SC1809 contract turnover is recorded at Yuan 53, 373,506   (in a related sub note 3 it is stated that turnover is in 10,000 yuan so the total would then be 533,735,060,000.

  1. BACKGROUND DATA IN RESPECT OF THE LBMA BEING IN A STATE OF DECAY
  • On 15th April 2004 it was announce that Rothschild exited all gold trading activities and relinquished its twin chairmanship of both the gold and silver fixes after an innings of about 200 years. Gold fell by $7 to $402 on this news, but otherwise nothing to see here.
  • After months of seeking to sell its ScotiaMocatta subsidiary, on 27th February 2018 the Bank of Nova Scotia announced that it had cancelled plans for this sale. Previously this proposed sale had been motivated by revelations of a massive money laundering scandal at that subsidiary. Apparently the various due diligence exercises all failed, so, instead, the operations of Scotia Mocatta are to be curtailed, although, after a 340 year trading history, it seems that its membership of this five clearing bank clique on the LBMA will (nominally?) continue. The other members are HSBC, ICBC Standard, JP Morgan and UBS.
  • Apart from Rothschild, Credit Suisse left the clique in 2001, Deutsche Bank in 2015 and Barclays in 2016. (Anybody spot a trend here?)
  • Recently this clique, styled London Precious Metals Clearing Ltd, announced that it was seeking to relax the membership rules and criteria in order to attract new members. ‘‘Sources said membership could fall further because increased regulation meant that clearing was becoming less profitable-having only three or four members wouldn’t look good”
  • From 1st April 2018, it was announced that the daily gold and silver LBMA fix prices will only be announced at midnight instead of a relatively short elapse time. (I wonder why-is technology retrogressing?)
  • Finally, after a litany of missed deadlines, the LBMA also announced last week that it was going to miss an imminent deadline for reporting more granular details of individual trading particulars.( No wonder the LBMA doesn’t want to promulgate any transparency or insights into trading activity given these enormous volumes, inter alia, of EFP contracts that it has no hope of executing .Kick this ‘transparency nonsense’ down the road is indeed an attractive short term expediency).
  1. .9999 finesse v .995 finesse

As the noose tightens on the dwindling physical supplies of LBMA gold being utilized to prevent default of physical deliveries to China, the Shanghai gold exchange demands all deliveries be re-refined to .9999 finesse from the LBMA standard of .995. This is because the markings on the allocated gold bars being re hypothecated (stolen) by the LBMA custodians to satisfy this demand will be obliterated. Additionally any gold plated tungsten bars utilized to cover up the great raid orchestrated on USA gold hoardings in the Rubin era to facilitate the scheme whereby gold was leased to certain banks as part of a massive and profitable carry trade will not be passed off to Shanghai. The lack of gold in Fort Knox is a scandalous topic that has received detailed coverage by many commentators over the last few decades.

end
Venezuela stops paying on its one billion dollar debt to Canadian miner Gold Reserve
(courtesy London’s Financial Times/ Wheatley/GATA)

Venezuela stops paying $1 billion debt to Canadian gold miner

 Section: 

By Jonathan Wheatley
Financial Times, London
Monday, April 30, 2018

Venezuela has stopped making payments on more than $1 billion it owes to a Canadian mining company, highlighting the country’s extreme difficulties in paying off its overseas debt.

Gold Reserve sued Venezuela under the World Bank’s dispute settlement system more than eight years ago over the expropriation of its gold-mining operations. The company finally agreed to a $1.03 billion settlement in September 2016, mostly to be paid in monthly instalments that began last July.

But fourth-quarter financial statements published by Gold Reserve at the end of last week show that the payments ended in November.

It follows an apparent cessation of payments to holders of Venezuela’s sovereign bonds in September last year. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.ft.com/content/3c6180da-4c76-11e8-97e4-13afc22d86d4

END

The following is a good one:  the 7 pillars of gold and why we should buy the yellow stuff

(courtesy Byron King/Daily Reckoning)

The Seven Pillars of Gold

You need to own gold; and you need to own shares in companies that find and mine it. I lay out seven reasons below, in what I’m calling the “Seven Pillars of Gold.”

Each “pillar” reinforces the argument for holding gold.

There’s some overlap between each of the pillars. In fact, it’s fair to say that many of the reasons to own gold actually segue back and forth, bumping into each other. But it’s possible to lay out seven distinct ideas. Here they are:

Pillar One: Oil prices are rising. Doubtless, you’ve noticed it if you’ve filled the fuel tank in your car with gasoline in the past nine months. From 2015 to late 2017, we enjoyed a three year respite from the olden days of $100 oil; but now, oil has decided to get up off the mat.

From a price in the $40 range a mere six months ago, we’re now into the $70s per barrel and higher prices are forecast. Of course, oil means energy, which means that higher oil costs will translate into higher prices for just about everything, not just at the fuel pump.

More costly energy will be a core component of inflation throughout the economy. That is, it will cost more to drive your car, for farmers to grow food, truckers to transport that food, businesses to buy supplies ranging from paint to roofing shingles.

That, and it will cost more to move all the other goods that support the economy. Indeed, energy-based inflation will eventually work its way all through the economy.

Rising energy costs are a type of inflation that we saw in the mid-2000s, during the previous runup to oil at over $130 per barrel in 2008. Then though, energy costs were squashed by “importing deflation” from low-priced overseas goods. But that trick has played out.

Americans haven’t experienced gut-ripping energy-based inflation in perhaps two generations, since the late 1970s and early 1980s. But when higher oil prices really pull into port, the ripple effect of inflation across every part of the economy will weaken the dollar’s purchasing power. We’ll see it in higher gold prices.

Pillar Two: Interest rates are rising. According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), interest on the national debt is among the fastest growing parts of the federal budget. In fact, by 2028 – just 10 years from now – the federal budget will spend more on interest payments (about one trillion dollars per year) than on defense (currently about $800 billion total).

Rising interest rates will crowd out most everything else in the federal budget, from defense to air traffic control to national parks. The budget money just won’t be there, because so much will go to pay interest. The only workarounds for Congress are less spending (ha!) or just open the spigots and roll with higher annual budget deficits.

Any way you cut it, the dollar – and the Federal Reserve’s unique powers of “money creation” – will surely be in play to wallpaper this mess. Again, we’ll see reduced purchasing power and higher gold prices.

Pillar Three: The petro-yuan. China has begun trading for oil in yuan, recently launching its so-called “petro-yuan.” Here’s the facts.

China is working hard to abandon the dollar as an instrument with which to pay for oil. It’ll use its own currency, the yuan, where and when possible. Currently, China’s petro-yuan contracts are what are called “long-dated,” meaning they commence in September 2018. (Four months is “long” if you’re trading.) In this respect, the Chinese are taking things slowly at first; no surprises.

China’s ultimate goal is to convince Saudi Arabia – one of China’s top-three oil suppliers – to take yuan in exchange for oil, and thus to abandon the 45-year link of Saudi oil to the petro-dollar.

If the globally dollarized oil trade takes a hit, it means many more bad things for the purchasing power of those “dead presidents” in your wallet or bank account.

Here’s the good news in all this. If you understand the implications, you are already several months ahead of the broad market on this. You have time to buy in on gold and miners. The entire setup is overall favorable for gold.

Pillar Four: Currency Wars. We’re already in the midst of “Currency Wars,” along the lines of what my colleague Jim Rickards discussed in his 2010 book of that title.

These types of monetary competitions are built around the very real understanding that nuclear armed nations cannot afford to fight old-fashioned, kinetic wars with each other. No battleships and bombers; but large, powerful nations can still play other games; such as cyber war and attacks on the other nation’s currency.

The currency war idea is ripe to hatch in the sense that Russia and China (among others) have accumulated immense amounts of gold over the past decade or so. Russia, in particular, is quite transparent about its national gold reserves, and Russian spokespeople make no secret that the gold is intended as a defense against dollar hegemony.

One of Jim’s theses in Currency Wars is that Russia and China could team up to combine their respective gold resources, and create a rival currency to the dollar. If the world trading system has an alternative to the dollar, it’s hard to imagine that the scenario would favor the U.S. dollar. Usage would likely decline to some level from decades past.

In other words, the dollar has had a runup in its percentage of world trade over the past 45 years. Looking ahead, if the dollar loses even some of its status as the world’s “reserve currency,” we should definitely expect to see its value decline and gold prices to increase.

Pillar Five: Tariffs, sanctions and potential trade wars. With global trade, it’s fair to say that everything is related to everything else. Lay a higher tariff on Chinese steel, and China taxes U.S. soybeans. Ban exports of high tech chips to China, and China might ban exports of rare earth magnetic powders to the U.S.

The “era of dollar supremacy is fast ending.

We no longer live in a unipolar, post-Cold War world in which the U.S. reigns supreme.” Indeed, to a large degree, the U.S. owes its current global economic and political dominance to a unique, near-accidental correlation of forces at the end of World War II in 1945. It’s a long story.

The short version is that the most destructive war in human history created the greatest economic engine that the world has ever seen. Post war, the U.S. was like the proverbial Phoenix, rising out of the ashes. It’s a massive, complex historical process, of course; but the point to keep in mind is that the post-war world – certainly that world for the U.S. – is coming to the end of its long, 73-year run.

Other nations, and even entire regions of the rest of the world, are rising; new phoenixes from their own beds of ash. Consider what analyst Christopher Preble recently wrote in the New York Times, that “America’s share of global wealth is shrinking. By some estimates, the United States accounted for roughly 50% of global output at the end of World War II… It has fallen to 15.1% today.”

Now, President Trump is using tariffs, taxes, sanctions and policy changes to try and rearrange the global trading dynamic. But global trade has evolved over the past four generations. Trump may or may not succeed in his quest to rearrange the elements of the U.S. economy; to “Make America Great Again. But if our nation is going to get into a trade war, you better have some gold in the vault.

Pillar Six: War. We’re living in a time of risky geopolitics, right at the edge of true war. Wars cost much “silver,” as the ancient Chinese scholar Sun Tzu once noted. As Sun Tzu wrote, “if the campaign is protracted, the resources of the State will not be equal to the strain.”

Now, consider the global scale of current saber rattling, from the Baltics to the Black Sea, to the Persian Gulf to the South China Sea, Korea and more.

More specifically, consider how NATO has expanded right against Russia, drawing wrath from the latter. Or think about Ukraine, where recent fighting has killed tens of thousands of soldiers and civilians. I barely need mention the Middle East, from Libya to Syria to Afghanistan.

You may have seen articles about the “new Cold War” between Russia and the West. It’s not just abstract anymore, either. It’s fair to say that U.S. forces are already “fighting” against Russians, in a manner of speaking, via full-fledged electronic warfare in the skies over Syria.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the globe, according to Admiral Philip Davidson, the likely next leader of U.S. Pacific Command, China has already taken control of the South China Sea.

We’re living in a world that’s quite close to real war, not just “currency wars.” And gold prices tend to spike on rumors of war, let alone when the shooting begins. One way or another – near-war, fight a war, win a war or especially when a side “loses” a war – it’s not good for the dollar. Come war, and rumor of war, we’ll see the value of dollars decline and gold prices increase.

Pillar Seven: Peak Gold. In a world where demand for gold is likely to rise for a wide variety of reasons, there will be less of it available to buy. We’re just not seeing a lot of new gold discovery. And fewer companies are spending the kind of funds required to make big impacts.

I’ve discussed the lack of investment and how large companies are spending big bucks, simply to stand still in terms of output. Even large gold miners are actively planning to shrink output, to focus on profitability.

We’re “there,” at the peak of gold production for a while to come, barring some sort of technical revolution – which might happen, but we’re not there yet.

When I look at the landscape for gold, I see the results of the lack of past exploration and development, and in consequence, few new mines coming online.

It’s accurate to say that gold output globally has plateaued just now; it’s likely declining in years to come. The result will be higher prices for gold, and for companies that mine it.

So there you have it; seven reasons why gold prices are geared to rise, benefitting metal owners and well-run miners that can pull yellow metal out of the ground.

Gold is in a breakout pattern, awaiting its moment. The price has been dammed-up for a while, via all manner of manipulations. But that golden dam is ready to break.

All the debt, the bad policy, the war dangers, the lack of investment and new output… It’s a prime setup for buying power to rush into the precious metal space.

Thus, Jim and I say to Gold Speculator subscribers, “Buy gold!”

And if you’re not already invested when the move begins, you’ll wind up chasing momentum.

Regards,

Byron King
for The Daily Reckoning

___________________________________________________________________

Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

 

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP 6.3322  /shanghai bourse CLOSED    / HANG SANG CLOSED HOLIDAY
2. Nikkei closed UP 40.16 POINTS OR 0.18%/  /USA: YEN RISES TO 109.64/  

3. Europe stocks OPENED GREEN     /USA dollar index RISES TO 92.25/Euro FALLS TO 1.2027

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO . +.04/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 109.64/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD FINALLY IN THE POSITIVE/BANK OF JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR YIELD CURVE AS THEY PURCHASE ALL BONDS TO GET TO ZERO RATE!!

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 67.95  and Brent: 74.13

3f Gold DOWN/Yen DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.56%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 1.78% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.28%

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 3.87?????????????????

3k Gold at $1307.95 silver at:16.26     7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 47/100 in roubles/dollar) 63.45

3m oil into the 67 dollar handle for WTI and 74 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.64 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9936 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1947 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to +0.58%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.95% early this morning (THIS IS DEADLY TO ALL MARKETS). Thirty year rate at 3.12%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)

Dollar Surges Above 200DMA, Futures Flat As Most Markets Closed For Labor Day (May Day Holiday)

With most of the world’s markets closed, celebrating Labor Day in France, Italy, Spain, Germany, Switzerland, Norway, Sweden, South Korea, China and Hong Kong, overnight markets have been especially thin, with virtually no newsflow, even as the dollar surge continues keeping a lid on S&P futures.

What markets were open moved little: Japan’s Topix index fell 0.2%; Aussie stocks were up 0.6%; S&P 500 futures faded an overnight gain of 0.1% and were trading flat. Treasury 10-year yields steady in a tight range of 2.95%-2.96%; Australia 10-year yield falls 1bp to 2.76%. WTI crude rises 0.3%; Dalian iron ore closed

Ahead of today’s much anticipated launch of US metal tariffs against Europe, late on Monday the White House announced that Donald Trump decided to delay imposing said tariffs on EU, Mexico and Canada until June 1, but the impact on markets will be deferred due to holidays around the globe.

The highlight of the overnight session was again the dollar, as the DXY index notched its ninth gain in 11 days, and broke above its 200-DMA for first time since May 2017, leading to a USD-driven move across G-10 and EMFX markets, while weighing on most commodities and US futures.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index (BBDX) extended its advance Tuesday to the highest level since January as Treasuries halted three days of gains ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting.

Elsewhere, the pound extended losses after weaker-than-forecast April manufacturing PMI data; the Sonia curve further prices out chances of a May hike. The latest drop in GBP spurred the FTSE, one of the few European equity gauges trading, to rise for a fourth day. SEK continues recent selloff, and the lack of liquidity saw the Swedish krona drop nearly 1% against the dollar and to a fresh eight-year low against the euro.

US Treasuries remained in a tight range, with yesterday’s month-end related bid faded in Asian hours.  The yield curve flattened on Monday on a combination of month-end and softish data, causing the 10yr yield to retreat from last week’s best levels, falling to sub-2.94%. While most of the action was concentrated in the long-end of the curve (30s yields down c.2bps at settlement), all the major yield spreads were narrowing; 5s30s flattened by c.1bps the lowest spread in more than six years. Ahead of Wednesday’s Quarterly Refunding Announcement, the US Treasury borrowed USD 488bln in Q1, expectations are to issue USD 75bln in net marketable debt in Q2, down USD 101bln previous estimate, and USD 273bln in net marketable debt in Q3. Elsewhere, BTPs underperformed their peers on Monday after Italy’s 5SM leader Di Maio called for a fresh election in June. Following the election in March, talks between parties have largely failed and no successful attempts were made to form a government. US 10yr T-Notes futures settle 4 ticks higher at 119-20.

Today’s market attention will now turn to the much-anticipated Apple earnings due after the close, when Tim Cook is expected to announce a slowdown in iPhone sales and guidance, potentially offset with a massive expansion in Apple’s dividend and buyback, potentially as much as $400 billion.

In geopolitical news, Iran’s Foreign Minister tweeted Iran allegations are old allegations that have already been dealt with by the IAEA. Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Pompeo stated that Israel’s nuclear files on Iran are real and that many are new, while US Treasury.

Elsewhere, Secretary Mnuchin stated that President Trump is still considering the Iran agreement. White House is said to be mulling restrictions on China researchers amid trade dispute.

Crude futures retraced some of the Iran/Israel-related move higher. Post the climb seen in oil on Monday following increased pressure on the US by Israel to pull out of the Iranian nuclear deal, oil pared back some of these gains, with both WTI and Brent down slightly amid the firmer USD. Gold has fallen to a six week low following the stronger USD which continued its rise toward 3 month highs. Metals markets remain sensitive to the news that Trump has extended steel and aluminium tariffs for Canada, EU, Mexico, among others. Here too, though, volumes were contained by widespread market closures including China.

Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk

  • Labour day holiday in France, Italy, Spain, Germany, Switzerland, Norway, Sweden, South Korea, China and Hong Kong
  • DXY spiked passed its 200dma with 2018 peak of 92.640 in focus, cable falls through 1.3700 level as miss on manufacturing data adds to woes
  • Looking ahead, highlights include, US mfg PMI, Canadian GDP, US construction spending, ISM mfg PMI, APIs, NZ jobs and GDT

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.2% at 2,642.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.05% to 385.53
  • MXAP down 0.2% to 173.83
  • MXAPJ down 0.2% to 568.04
  • Nikkei up 0.2% to 22,508.03
  • Topix down 0.2% to 1,774.18
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.7% to 30,808.45
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 3,082.23
  • Sensex up 0.6% to 35,160.36
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 6,015.23
  • Kospi up 0.9% to 2,515.38
  • German 10Y yield fell 1.2 bps to 0.559%
  • Euro down 0.3% to $1.2039
  • Brent Futures down 1.5% to $74.02/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 4.3 bps to 1.53%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.8 bps to 1.28%
  • Gold spot down 0.5% to $1,308.29
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.4% to 92.22

Top Overnight News

  • President Donald Trump will delay imposing steel and aluminum tariffs on the European Union, Mexico and Canada until June 1 as he finalizes deals with them, the White House said in a statement
  • U.K Apr. Manufacturing PMI: 53.9 vs 54.8 est; Markit note adverse weather was partly to blame in Feb. and Mar., there are no excuses for Apr’s disappointing performance, chances of a near term hike from BOE increasingly remote
  • Italian President rules out new elections in June: Messagero
  • Japan Apr. Manufacturing PMI: 53.8 vs 53.3 est; Markit note output growth quickens to 3mth high; input prices continued to inflate sharply
  • The U.K. is proposing a new plan to kick-start stalled Brexit talks and make progress on the vexed issue of the Irish border as negotiations resume in Brussels this week
  • U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said he’s unconcerned about the bond market’s ability to absorb rising government debt after his department said it borrowed a record amount for the first quarter
  • Britain’s opposition Labour party plans to spend 2.3 billion pounds (3.2 billion) installing insulation in low-income households to help bring down what it says are “skyrocketing” energy bills
  • Developing economies are better suited to withstand a global downturn than in the past, said Bruno Braizinha, a rates and cross-asset strategist at Societe Generale SA. A U.S. recession next year or in early 2020 will probably be shallower than the global financial crisis a decade ago, and emerging market fundamentals are much stronger and supported by Chinese growth, he said in an interview
  • The U.S. isn’t seeking to put Russian aluminum giant United Co. Rusal out of business by sanctioning the company, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said, but its majority owner Oleg Deripaska must reduce his stake to less than 50 percent
  • BP Plc capped a shaky Big Oil earnings season on a more upbeat note, as investors reacted positively to the highest profit in years even as the continuing burden of oil-spill payments pushed debt higher

Asia-Pac equity markets traded positive, although lacked firm impetus amid mass closures in the region and following the negative lead from Wall St where sentiment was dampened amid geopolitical concerns. This was due to Israel’s stern rhetoric on Iran which it alleged had lied on its nuclear program, while the telecoms sector led the declines amid doubts the T-Mobile-Sprint merger would get regulatory approval. ASX 200 (+0.6%) saw energy names underpinned on higher oil prices following Israel’s exposure of Iran and the possible implications it could have on the nuclear agreement, while financials also gained after big 4 bank ANZ reported over 4% profit growth. Nikkei 225 (+0.2%) was in the green but with price action indecisive as it began a 2-day trading week and pondered over the recent JPY strength. There wasn’t much price action elsewhere with mainland China, Hong Kong, India, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan among the markets shut for public holiday, while US equity futures were off prior lows amid mild short covering and after reports the US extended tariff relief for its allies by delaying its decision another month to June 1st. Finally, 10yr JGBs were higher to track the prior day’s upside in T-notes and with the BoJ present in the market under its bond buying programme, while yields were lower across the curve with outperformance seen in super-long-end bonds. Australian RBA Cash Rate (May) 1.50% vs. Exp. 1.50% (Prev. 1.50%). (Newswires) RBA reiterates that steady policy is consistent with growth and inflation targets, while it also repeated that low rates supports the domestic economy and that a stronger AUD would slow economic pick-up. Furthermore, RBA stated that Inflation and wage growth likely to stay low for a while but added that it expects stronger exports.

Top Asian News

  • RBA Leaves Key Rate at 1.5% as Seen by All 27 Economists
  • SoftBank’s Credit Swaps Drop to Two-Week Low on Sprint Deal

As European markets are closed for labour day, focus is on UK’s FTSE 100 (+0.3%), currently trading somewhat lacklustre albeit in thin trade. The index has however received a boost from the weakening sterling following softer UK Manufacturing PMIs. Just Eat (+3%) is higher after delivering strong results whilst BP (+0.8%) is also fuelled post-earnings. Mining names are underperforming amid falling base metal prices influenced by the dollar bid. Other noticeable movers include FTSE 100 heavyweight British American Tobacco (-0.8%), lagging behind following a downgrade at Piper Jaffray.

Top European News

  • Large Upside Buying in Short Sterling Bets on No BOE Rate Hike
  • Italian President Rules Out New Elections in June: Messaggero
  • Qatar’s Wealth Fund Is Said to Weigh Selling European Hotels
  • Swedish Krona Declines an Eighth Day to Lowest Level Since 2009

In FX, the DXY index faced some resistance around recent highs and the 200DMA (91.980), but has worked its way through some hefty buy/sell orders in G10 pairings at key levels along with big barriers and other major technical obstacles to cross the 92.000 marker and register a fresh high since mid-January. The 2018 peak at 92.640 (from January 12th) is next on the radar for bulls.  GBP: The Pound’s misfortunes rumble on and the latest bearish catalysts have come in the form of a sub-forecast UK manufacturing PMI plus weak consumer credit and mortgage approvals. Cable has tumbled through 1.3700 as a result, and through decent bids in the high 1.3670 area, with sellers now eyeing chart ‘support’ just ahead of 1.3650, while Eur/Gbp is testing 0.8800 offers again. SEK: A notable underperformer beyond the G10, as Eur/Sek extends its post-dovish Riksbank rally towards 10.6500 ahead of a big Swedish stock dividend payment day on May 7.  EUR/NZD/AUD/JPY/CHF: All around 0.3-0.4% weaker vs the Greenback, with the Eur/Usd breaching several major downside technical levels on the way to testing a 1.2035-30 Fib area, including 1.2055 and 1.2050 barriers. Aud and Nzd are only just holding above the well documented and obvious 0.7500/0.7000 psychological and round number handles, with the former not getting any support from the RBA overnight (stood pat on rates and maintained a neutral policy stance), while the Kiwi is awaiting latest GDT auction results and NZ jobs data. Usd/Jpy briefly capped by supply at 109.50 and the recent peak just a few pips above, but now testing Fib resistance at 109.65, while Usd/Chf is extending gains above 0.9900.

In commodities, post the climb seen in oil on Monday following increased pressure on the US by Israel to pull out of the Iranian nuclear deal, oil pared back some of these gains, with both WTI and Brent down slightly amid the firmer USD. Gold has fallen to a six week low following the stronger USD which continued its rise toward 3 month highs. Metals markets remain sensitive to the news that Trump has extended steel and aluminium tariffs for Canada, EU, Mexico, among others. Note, volumes overnight were contained by widespread market closures including China. Iranian crude exports have hit 2.61mln BPD in April, a record figure

Looking at the day ahead, in Europe the focus is on the UK with March money and credit aggregates data, along with the April manufacturing PMI. In the US we’ll also receive the final April manufacturing PMI print along with the April ISM manufacturing, March construction spending and April vehicle sales data. The headline earnings release is Apple, while results from Pfizer, Merck and BP will also be closely watched.

US Event Calendar

  • 9:45am: Markit US Manufacturing PMI, est. 56.5, prior 56.5
  • 10am: Construction Spending MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.1%
  • 10am: ISM Manufacturing, est. 58.4, prior 59.3
    • ISM Employment, prior 57.3
    • ISM Prices Paid, est. 78.5, prior 78.1
    • ISM New Orders, prior 61.9
  • Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales, est. 13.3m, prior 13.4m; Total Vehicle Sales, est. 17.1m, prior 17.4m

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

One celebration for today is that with the ticking over of the monthly calendar, this US economic expansion now becomes the outright second longest in history with data going back over 164 years and 34 business cycles. At 107 months it nudges ahead of the long 1960s expansion and will beat the 1990s expansion if it extends past July next year. In fact as we’ve discussed before, the last four expansions (since the early 1980s) have all been long ones and are all in the top 6 longest of all time. Why have they been so long? Well as we’ve discussed before we think it’s largely due to demographics and globalisation colliding. The global labour force has naturally surged since 1980 with China deciding to integrate itself into the global economy at almost the same point. China thus dumped an additional billion of low paid labour on the world. This has helped structurally depress global wages for three and a half decades and meant that policy hasn’t needed to be tightened as early in the last four cycles as through most of  history. This has helped prolong these business cycles. However we think we’re just past peak global labour now and therefore subsequent cycles will see wage pressures earlier. So the days of super long business cycles may be over so enjoy this one while it lasts.

Given it’s the first day of a new month we’ve included our usual monthly performance review at the end of today’s EMR. Given the turmoil for equity markets in March, April felt more like a bounce back month for most markets with 25 of our 39 assets ending the month with a positive total return including 13 out of 15 equity markets. The abating trade war spat between China and the US, some signs of stabilising global growth following the monthly PMIs, and a fairly decent earnings season so far on both sides of the pond has certainly helped although as we saw towards the end of the month the bond sell-off has ensured fixed income has been weak and this has provided renewed headwinds for risk after a good recovery.

The last day of April started with an M&A flurry and risk on dominating but ended on the weak side as the S&P 500 closed out at the lows for the day (-0.82%). All sectors within the S&P fell with losses led by telco and health care stocks. Sprint dropped -14% on concerns that its merger deal with TMobile (-6%) may face regulatory challenges while stock specific factors pushed down Allergan (-5%) and Celgene (-4.5%) in the healthcare space. Elsewhere, MacDonalds jumped 5.8% after a result beat while Apple rose 1.8% ahead of its results and possible shareholder payout today. The Dow (-0.61%) and Nasdaq (-0.75%) also retreated while the Stoxx 600 rose for the third consecutive day (+0.18%).

This morning in Asia, most markets are closed for holidays (China, HK, South Korea), while the ASX200 (+0.49%) and Nikkei (+0.19%) are modestly up as we type. Much of continental Europe will also be closed today. Overnight, the White House confirmed that President Trump has extended the steel tariff exemptions on the EU, Canada and Mexico until 1 June to allow further talks, while agreement in principle has been reached with Australia, Brazil and Argentina, with details to be “finalised shortly”. Elsewhere, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said he is “not concerned about” the rising supply of US treasuries, in part as “there are still a lot of buyers” and “I think the market can easily handle it”.

The data highlight yesterday was the US PCE data. In fairness Friday’s GDP report meant that yesterday’s PCE was to some degree a formality with the +0.2% mom print in line with expectations. Significantly however, the annual rate is now at +1.9% yoy (from +1.6%) thanks to base effects which puts it technically within a whisker of the Fed’s 2% target with the 6-month annualized rate now at a very solid +2.3%.

Elsewhere the Chicago PMI was weaker than expected (57.6 vs 58) but the prices paid component soared to a near-seven-year-high and surpassed the 70-mark in April for only the third time since 2012. This backs up most survey data that shows price rises are at multi-year highs. Staying with prices, Germany’s April CPI was slightly below market at -0.1% mom (vs. 0% expected) and 1.4% yoy (vs 1.5% expected), while Italy’s CPI print was also below expectations at 0.6% yoy (vs 0.8%).

Meanwhile here in the UK, along with the announcement of ex-DB Sajid Javid as Home Secretary, the Irish Border subject took on some focus as EU’s Chief Brexit negotiator Barnier warned that “until we reach this agreement and operational solution for Northern Ireland…there is a risk, a real risk” of negotiation talks collapsing. Later on, he did soften his tone a bit as he promised to work “day and night” for a solution leading up the June Summit of EU leaders. On other side, the UK’s Brexit Secretary Davis said “we’ve put forward proposals… and look forward to making progress this week”. The preferred option A for the UK is a sweeping new free trade agreement that would avoid the need for border checks post Brexit.

Staying in Europe, 10y BTPs (+4.4bps, BTP/Bunds spread +5.6bp) were the relative underperformer in the bond market yesterday after the latest twist in the political soap opera saw 5SM leader Luigi Di Maio call for new elections as early as June. This comes after talks with the PD broke down. This would in turn potentially raise the uncertainty level again however it’s worth noting that the decision lies with Italy’s President Sergio Mattarella. Elsewhere, core 10y bond yields firmed slightly with UST 10y and Bunds down 0.4bp and 1.2bp respectively.

Over in commodities, WTI oil jumped 1.8% and to fresh multi-year highs before paring gains to close +0.69% higher yesterday ($68.57/bbl), in part as Israel’s PM Netanyahu said “Iran lied about never having a nuclear weapons program” and “after signing the nuclear deal in 2015, it intensified its efforts to hide its nuclear files”. Elsewhere, the US dollar index firmed 0.33% while the Euro fell to the lowest since mid-January (-0.43% to 1.2078).

Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the March personal income growth was lower than expected (0.3% mom vs. 0.4%) while spending was in line at 0.4% mom. Elsewhere, the April Dallas Fed index (21.8 vs. 23 expected) and March pending home sales print were both below consensus (0.4% mom vs. 0.7%). In Europe, Germany’s March retail sales fell for the fourth consecutive month, but prior revisions meant the annual growth was 1.3% yoy (vs 1.2% expected). Finally, the Eurozone’s March M3 money supply was 3.7% yoy (vs 4.1% expected). After adjusting for sales and securitizations, growth in household lending was up 3.0% yoy while growth in non-financial corporate loans rose 3.3% yoy.

Looking at the day ahead, in Europe the focus is on the UK with March money and credit aggregates data, along with the April manufacturing PMI. In the US we’ll also receive the final April manufacturing PMI print along with the April ISM manufacturing, March construction spending and April vehicle sales data. The headline earnings release is Apple, while results from Pfizer, Merck and BP will also be closely watched.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed   /Hang Sang CLOSED    / The Nikkei closed UP 40.16 POINTS OR 0.18%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .47%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.3322/Oil UP to 67.95 dollars per barrel for WTI and 74.13 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED DEEPLY IN THE GREEN.   ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.3322 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3341/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING A LITTLE WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE A FULL TRADE WAR IS BEGINNING/

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

North Korea/South Korea/usa

Looks like Trump scored on this one:  there will be a historic summit with Trump at the DMZ

(courtesy zerohedge)

Kim Jong Un Agrees To Historic Summit With Trump At DMZ

South Korean President Moon Jae-in, who suggested on Monday that Donald Trump deserves the Nobel Peace Prize

…has convinced North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to hold his historic meeting with US President Donald Trump at the demilitarized zone (DMZ) separating the two Koreas – a region Bill Clinton called the “scariest place on earth” in 1993, CNN reports.

Moon and Kim met last Friday at the same location in Panmunjom, as the historically significant event led to an agreement to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula and formally end the Korean War.

There is a “strong possibility” the summit will be held at the site, with some events possibly scheduled on the northern side of the military demarcation line separating the two countries, according to an official with deep knowledge of North Korea’s thinking on the matter. –CNN

The summit, thought to be held in “in late may,” will also mark a historically significant moment in US history – as the agreement between the two Koreas marks the first sitting US President to meet with a North Korean Leader, ending decades of failed US foreign policy as the multi-generational regime pursued its nuclear ambitions.

The idea to meet at the DMZ was on Trump’s mind all weekend – as he raised the possibility in a Sunday phone call with Moon, a senior US official and another person familiar with the conversation told CNN.

There’s something I like about it, because you’re there, if things work out, there’s a great celebration to be had on the site, not in a third party country,” said President Trump to reporters on Monday.

FOX Business

@FoxBusiness

.@POTUS on the possibility of holding the North Korea summit at the DMZ: “There is something that I like about it because you’re there. You’re actually there. Where if things work out, there’s a great celebration to be had.”

On Friday Kim Jong Un and Moon Jae-in agreed to finally end a seven-decade war, signing a declaration to pursue the “complete denuclearization” of the Korean Peninsula, although they did not announce any concrete steps to dismantle the North’s nuclear programs..

The two leaders embraced after signing the deal during a historic meeting on their shared border, the first time a North Korean leader has set foot on the southern side. They announced plans to formally declare a resolution to the war and replace 1953 armistice that ended open hostilities into a peace treaty by year’s end.

“We solemnly declare to our 80m Koreans and the world that there will no more war on the Korean peninsula and a new era of peace has begun,” North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and South Korean president Moon Jae-in said in a joint statement. “It is our urgent historic assignment to put an end to this current abnormal state of ceasefire and establish a peace regime.”

Jeffs@jeffs_araujo35

: North Korean leader Kim Jong-un makes history with a brief walk into South Korea for an ice-breaking

“We have agreed to share a firm determination to open a new era in which all Korean people enjoy prosperity and happiness on a peaceful land without wars,” Kim said, in his first remarks in front of the global press since taking power in 2011.

JaeKwon Son 손재권

@gjack

No Wall, No War, No hate
Today, We are all KOREANS

The two sides “confirmed the common goal of realizing, through complete denuclearization, a nuclear-free Korean Peninsula.

Trump loved the images from the inter-Korean summit and the fact the entire meeting was televised, those sources said. –CNN

CNN reports that some in the Trump administration have concerns, however, that a meeting at the DMZ would appear conciliatory towards Kim, and are arguing towards Singapore as an alternate location for the summit.

The wealthy and glamorous city-state sits on the end of the Malay Peninsula and has often been seen as a gateway between Asia and the West.

A close ally to the United States during the Cold War and currently host to a US military presence, Singapore also has a diplomatic relationship with North Korea. It is one of only 47 countries to feature a North Korean embassy. –CNN

That said, Kim Jong Un is said to be reluctant to travel long distances by plane, due in part to security concerns, so Singapore may be off the table.

A third location the leaders could meet is the previously suggested is the Mongolian capital of Ulaanbaatar – leveraging diplomatic ties between both Pyongyang and Washington and serving as neutral ground for the summit. It would also allow Kim to travel to the meeting using his father’s armored train.

“Mongolia is very eager to host this summit, they have come out and said they will host it … They want to be the Switzerland of Asia, they want to be seen as a partner that can have good ties with everybody,” said Jenna Gibson, director of communications at the Korea Economic Institute.

On Monday, South Korean leader Moon Jae-in said U.S. President Donald Trump deserves a Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts to end the standoff with North Korea over its nuclear weapons program, a South Korean official said on Monday.

Just a few short hours after the historic first crossing south of the border by Kim to meet Moon pledging to end hostilities between the two countries and work towards the “complete denuclearization” of the Korean peninsula, Reuters reports that Moon told a meeting of senior secretaries, according to a presidential Blue House official who briefed media:

“President Trump should win the Nobel Peace Prize. What we need is only peace.”

This follows Moon’s comments in January that Trump “deserves big credit for bringing about the inter-Korean talks. It could be a resulting work of the U.S.-led sanctions and pressure.”

Perhaps the most important question of all; will Dennis Rodman be at the signing?

 

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

end

c) REPORT ON CHINA/HONG KONG

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Greece/Turkey

This could get ugly..Turkey is holding a massive number of refugees and they are also angry at the West.  Turkey has also called upon the FRBNY to repatriate its gold.  Greece is fearing that Turkey will unload all of their refugees onto their shores.

(courtesy zerohedge)

8. EMERGING MARKET

Venezuela

end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00 am

Euro/USA 1.2027 DOWN .0054/ REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ SPAIN VS CATALONIA/REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:/TRUMP HEALTH CARE DEFEAT//ITALIAN REFERENDUM DEFEAT/AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA FALLING INTEREST RATES AGAIN/HOUSTON FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES DEEPLY IN THE GREEN    

USA/JAPAN YEN 109.64 UP  0.339 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/SIGNALS U TURN WITH INCREASED NEGATIVITY IN NIRP/JAPAN OUT OF WEAPONS TO FIGHT ECONOMIC DISASTER/

GBP/USA 1.3674 DOWN .0096  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.2867 UP .0034 (CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 54 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.2027; / Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED  /   Hang Sang CLOSED  holiday /AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP .47% / EUROPEAN BOURSES  OPENED GREEN

The NIKKEI: this TUESDAY morning CLOSED UP 40.16 POINTS OR 0.18%

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED  DEEPLY IN THE GREEN

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / : Hang Sang CLOSED   / SHANGHAI CLOSED  holiday  /

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP .47%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 40.16 POINTS OR 0.18%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN 

Gold very early morning trading: 1307.95

silver:$16.26

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.95% !!! UP 0  IN POINTS from MONDAY night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/ 

The 30 yr bond yield 3.12 UP 0  IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early  TUESDAY morning: 92.25 UP 40  CENT(S) from MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

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And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.676% UP 0  in basis point(s) yield from MONDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.0.043%  DOWN 1   in basis points yield from MONDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.280% UP 0  IN basis point yield from MONDAY/

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.785  UP 0  POINTS in basis point yield from MONDAY/

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 51 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:FALLS TO +.559%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY

END

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IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.2005 DOWN .0077 (Euro DOWN 77 Basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/

USA/Japan: 109.67 DOWN 0.367 Yen DOWN 37 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3616DOWN .0155( POUND DOWN 156 BASIS POINTS)

USA/Canada 1.2867 DOWN  .0035 Canadian dollar DOWN 35 Basis points AS OIL FELL TO $67.68

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This afternoon, the Euro was DOWN 77 to trade at 1.2005

The Yen FELL to 109.67 for a LOSS of 37 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE

The POUND FELL BY 155 basis points, trading at 1.3616/

The Canadian dollar FELL by 35 basis points to 1.2867/ WITH WTI OIL FALLING TO : $67.68

The USA/Yuan closed AT 6.3322
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.046%  DOWN 1   IN BASIS POINTS / yield/
Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 3   IN basis points from MONDAY at 2.9718% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.1336 UP 4      in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 92.43  UP 59 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 1:00 PM EST

London: CLOSED UP 11.06  POINTS OR 0.15%
German Dax :CLOSED
Paris Cac CLOSED
Spain IBEX CLOSED

Italian MIB: CLOSED

The Dow closed DOWN 64.10 POINTS OR 0.27%

NASDAQ closed UP 64.44  Points OR 0.91%      4.00 PM EST

WTI Oil price; 67.68 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 73/67 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE CROSS: 63.41 UP 43/100 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE LOWER BY 43 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS TO +.559% FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:30 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:$67.47

BRENT: $73.27

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.97%   THIS RAPID RISE IN YIELD IS ALSO VERY DANGEROUS/RECESSION COMING/DERIVATIVES FRY!!

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.13%/DEADLY

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.19920 DOWN .0090  (DOWN 90 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.85 UP 0.356/ YEN DOWN 36 BASIS POINTS/ .

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 92.47 UP 63 cent(s)/dangerous as the lower the dollar the higher the inflation.

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.3614: DOWN 0.01567  (FROM YESTERDAY NIGHT DOWN 157 POINTS)

Canadian dollar: 1.2849 DOWN 17 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: +0.559%


VOLATILITY INDEX:  15.93  CLOSED  UP 0.52  

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.363%  .

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

Gold Hits 2018 Lows As Dollar Soars; Tech Pops, Dow Drops

A Quiet Day with much of the world off on May Day holidays…

Stagflation concerns dominate – construction spending and ISM Manufacturing tumbled as PMI/ISM Prices Paid soared to seven year highs – Simply put, hope is gone…

A very mixed picture in equity-land today as Nasdaq ended higher (ahead of AAPL earnings), S&P unch (thanks to the machines) and The Dow suffered (as trade fears hit Boeing and MCD earnings didn’t help)…

Futures show the divergence most clearly…

Small Caps and Nasdaq outperformed in cash markets, Dow worst…

NOTE – the crazy meltup in the last few minutes of the day… which lifted the S&P green

Some big technical levels hit or approached today…

  • Gold breaks below 200DMA
  • USD Index breaks above 200DMA
  • EURUSD breaks below 200DMA
  • GBPUSD nears 200DMA
  • USDJPY nears 200DMA
  • Dow nears 200DMA (23726.82)

But Facebook’s Dating App saved the world… It appeared that Facebook announcing a dating feature may have crushed Match but it ignited momentum across the entire US equity market…

And then the machines went into vertical buying-panic mode…

The Big Banks tried to stage an afternoon comeback but failed…

But Small Banks continue to outperform Small Caps… this won’t end well…

Treasury yields were up across the curve but only modestly…

But the yield curve flattened once again…

The Dollar Index spiked again today, busting through its 200DMA… (Dollar at highest since 1/10/18)

As the dollar gained, so cryptocurrencies lost ground…

And the dollar gains impacted commodities aggressively…

WTI Crude slumped to a $66 handle ahead of tonight’s API data…

With Gold tumbling to the lows of the year…

Gold found support at its 200DMA…

Bonus Chart: This is the chart that every bond bear is banking on… The Fed has unwound $100 billion of its balance sheet and 10Y Yields have risen from 2% to 3%… simply put, The Fed is finally managing to tighten financial conditions.

How long before stocks realize? And how long before this correlation (which is not causation remember) breaks?

END

EARLY MORNING TRADING:

Gold Tumbles To 2018 Lows As Dollargasm Sparks Dow Dump, Yield Jump

The Dow is down over 250 points (at the lows of the day) back at one-week lows, Nasdaq is surging (at the highs of the day) as the dollar index just keeps on running higher, breaking key technical resistance on the way amid a low liquidity trading day.

With Europe on May Day holiday, the dollar is untethered…

And Treasury yields are spiking along with the dollar…

And as the dollar spikes, Dow is tumbling…

But Nasdaq is surging…

Meanwhile, Gold is getting monkeyhammered back towards $1300 – the lowest level of the year…

Breaking below its 200DMA…

 END

USA expansion is now the second longest on record

(courtesy zerohedge)

“It’s A Historic Day”: The US Economic Expansion Is Now The Second Longest On Record

In addition to bringing May Day which, as Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid describes as “the day people danced around a maypole in funny outfits and generally partake in outdoor celebratory activities but if yesterday was anything to go by in London anyone going outside was likely to need to dance just to prevent frost bite“, the start of the new month marks a far more “historic” occasion: as we previewed three weeks ago, with the ticking over of the monthly calendar, this US economic expansion now becomes the outright second longest in history with data going back over 164 years and 34 business cycles.

According to Deutsche Bank’s calculations, at 107 months the current expansion just nudged ahead of the long 1960s expansion, and will beat the 1990s expansion for the title of longest expansion in history if it extends past July next year.

What is notable is that as discussed before, the last four expansions (since the early 1980s) have all been long ones and are all in the top 6 longest of all time. Why have they been so long? According to Reid it’s largely due to demographics and globalization colliding.

The global labour force has naturally surged since 1980 with China deciding to integrate itself into the global economy at almost the same point. China thus dumped an additional billion of low paid labour on the world. This has helped structurally depress global wages for three and a half decades and meant that policy hasn’t needed to be tightened as early in the last four cycles as through most of history.

While these factors have helped prolong these business cycles, the risk is that we’re just past peak global labor now and therefore subsequent cycles will see wage pressures, clashing demographics, labor shortages, rising yields and general market instability. Which is why Deutsche closes on a pessimistic note: “So the days of super long business cycles may be over so enjoy this one while it lasts.

Or maybe not: as we also showed last month, according to the latest CBO forecast, the US is now expected to not have a recession any time until Dec. 31, 2028, which would imply that the CBO expects the current expansion to last no less than 234 months (since June 30, 2009), which would make it nearly 20 years long…

… and double the longest period without economic contraction in history, effectively unleashing an era of global peace and prosperity. Good luck with that.

end

Trump delays steel tariff decision to June 1/2018 but exempts South Korea altogether\

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Reportedly Delays Steel Tariff Decision Until June 1st, Exempts South Korea

As was largely expected ahead of Tuesday’s 1201am deadline, The Wall Street Journal reports that President Trump has decided to postpone decisions about imposing steel and aluminum tariffs on the European Union and other U.S. allies until June 1.

The temporary exemptions extended to the EU, Canada, Mexico, Australia, Brazil and Argentina, which, as we noted earlier, if revoked would throw the global markets into turmoil and international supply chains into a deep well of uncertainty, as the exemptions add up to almost half of the U.S. steel imports.

The U.S. initially imposed world-wide tariffs of 25% on U.S. steel imports and 10% on aluminum in March, but it temporarily exempted several U.S. allies from the tariffs. Monday’s decisions extend that delay.

Extensions for Canada and Mexico were widely expected, but it was uncertain whether the U.S. would proceed with tariffs on Europe May 1 as scheduled.

The extension does not erase the uncertainty that will remain in the interim. It is still unknown if some countries can negotiate limited quotas, make deals on goodwill, or if all countries will be slapped with tariffs.

In addition, WSJ reports that the White House will announce Monday evening that it has finalized a deal to exempt South Korea from the tariffs, mirroring details that have been previously released by the U.S. Trade Representative’s office.

The remaining decisions on tariffs will be decided later, the official said.

end

Today’s data release:

Today we again see a complete polar opposite report on the manufacturing health of the uSA.  Markit always issues bullish manufacturing reports and lately ISM the opposite.  However both are flashing warning lights on inflation

(courtesy zeorhedge)

Inflation “Warning Lights” Are Flashing As Manufacturing Prices Soar Most Since 2011

Despite a tumble in ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ data in April, Markit reports the Manufacturing PMI survey surged to 56.5 (as expected) – its highest since Sept 2014. Output is rising at its fastest pace since Jan 2017 as inflationary pressures intensify dramatically.

As is usual recently in our baffle ’em with bullshit world, ISM Manufacturing disappointed, dropping to 57.3 (exp 58.5) to its lowest since July 2017.

Looks like ISM is fitting real data better than PMI…

ISM saw a big drop in employment, modest drop in new orders, but big jump higher in Prices Paid…

But there was a major divergence between adjusted and unadjusted new orders…

One ISM respondent summed things up well…

“[The] 232 and 301 tariffs are very concerning. Business planning is at a standstill until they are resolved. Significant amount of manpower [on planning and the like] being expended on these issues.

Commenting on the final PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said:

“April saw US manufacturers reporting the strongest monthly improvement in business conditions since September 2014. The survey suggests the economy has started the second quarter on a solid footing and sends an encouraging signal for GDP growth to accelerate after the modest 2.3% rate of expansion seen in the first quarter.

“With inflows of new orders rising at an accelerated pace, greater input buying and business expectations regarding future production levels running at one of the highest levels seen over the past three years, there’s plenty of evidence to suggest strong growth will persist through May.

“The upturn is being led by large firms, with smaller companies trailing behind but nonetheless also seeing some of the best business conditions for three years.

However, Williamson leaves the best/worst for last as inflationary pressures are intensifying dramatically…

Warning lights are being flashed in relation to inflation, however, with factories reporting the strongest rise in prices for nearly seven years. Suppliers are hiking prices in response to surging demand, while tariffs and higher oil prices are also exerting upward pressure on costs.

With the average price of goods leaving factories rising at the fastest rate since 2011, consumer price inflation looks set to accelerate.

And ISM data shows the soaring Prices Paid index (to its highest since April 2011) diverging from new orders and employment…

That did not end well last time.

end

Goldman Sachs fined 110 million dollars for rigging the foreign exchange market

(courtesy zerohedge)

Goldman Fined $110 Million For “Improperly” Rigging The FX Market

First Deutsche, then BNP, and now it’s Goldman’s turn to pay the Fed a token fee for making billions in manipulating the FX market from 2008 to 2013.

The Department of Financial Service announced on Tuesday that Goldman had agreed to pay the Federal Reserve $54.75 million, and an identical fine to the New York financial regulator, to settle claims that the bank allowed its foreign exchange traders to wrongly share customer information with traders from other global banks and engage in questionable conduct.

Furthermore, it appears that Goldman was the latest bank to participate in infamous FX rigging “chatoorms” which its traders used to discuss their positions on currency trades away from regulatory scrutiny.

The violation announced today stems from an investigation by DFS determining that from 2008 to early 2013, Goldman engaged in unlawful, unsafe and unsound conduct by failing to implement effective controls over its foreign exchange business.

Oddly enough, these years roughly coincide with Tom Stolper’s reign as Goldman’s undisputed “FX Gartman” when it comes to trading recommendations as regular readers will recall.

“The firm failed to detect and address its traders’ use of electronic chatrooms to communicate with competitors about trading positions,” the Fed said in a statement. The Fed said it was taking the action with the New York Department of Financial Services (NYDFS). Separately on Tuesday, Bloomberg reported that Goldman agreed to match the Fed’s fine to resolve the same allegations.

Having been caught manipulating the FX market, Goldman promised to do better and will “enhance internal controls and risk management” under the consent order. Translation: the rigging will continue, only this time no more chat rooms.

Full DFS press release below:

DFS FINES GOLDMAN SACHS $54.75 MILLION FOR UNSAFE AND UNSOUND CONDUCT IN ITS FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING BUSINESS

  • Goldman Traders Improperly Shared Customer Information with Traders from Other Global Banks and Engaged in Questionable Conduct to Improperly Affect Foreign Exchange Prices
  • Goldman Also Failed to Implement Effective Controls Over Its Foreign Exchange Business
  • The Bank Will Submit to DFS Plans for Enhanced Internal Controls and Risk Management

Financial Services Superintendent Maria T. Vullo today announced that Goldman Sachs Group Inc., parent company of Goldman Sachs Bank USA, agreed to pay a $54,750,000 fine as part of a consent order with the New York State Department of Financial Services (DFS) for violating New York banking law, including improperly sharing customer information with other global banks, and other unlawful conduct that disadvantaged customers and potentially affected foreign exchange prices.  The violation announced today stems from an investigation by DFS determining that from 2008 to early 2013, Goldman engaged in unlawful, unsafe and unsound conduct by failing to implement effective controls over its foreign exchange business.  As part of the consent order, Goldman will submit to DFS written plans for enhanced internal controls and compliance risk management. DFS coordinated its enforcement action with the Federal Reserve Board and appreciates the Board’s cooperation.

“DFS’s investigation revealed that Certain Goldman traders exploited the company’s ineffective oversight of its foreign exchange business by improperly sharing customer information, which allowed the bank’s foreign exchange traders and others to violate New York State law over the course of several years,” said Superintendent Vullo.  “DFS recognizes the steps taken by the company to ensure compliance with applicable laws, in entering into today’s consent order and to the agreed reforms.”

The DFS investigation found that from 2008 to early 2013, Goldman foreign exchange traders participated in multi-party electronic chat rooms, where traders, sometimes using code names to discreetly share confidential customer information, discussed potentially coordinating trading activity and other efforts that could improperly affect currency prices or disadvantage customers.  This improper activity sought to enable banks and the involved traders to achieve higher profits from execution of foreign exchange trades, sometimes at customers’ expense.

The traders engaged in this improper activity despite both outside guidance and internal policies designed to prevent improper trading practices.  For example, Goldman Sachs had specific policies addressing its foreign exchange business in place as early as 2001, and which evolved over time.  However, escalation of compliance concerns did not always occur as required, allowing potentially improper trading activity to continue.

Although a senior member of Goldman Sachs’ Global Foreign Exchange Sales Division raised concerns about the sharing of customer information, there is no evidence the supervisor took any steps to escalate to Goldman Sachs’ compliance function any of these serious concerns.

Under the consent order, Goldman will submit to DFS:

  • An enhanced written internal controls and compliance program acceptable to the Department to comply with applicable New York State and federal laws and regulations with respect to the bank’s foreign exchange trading business as it affects or pertains to the Bank or New York customers;
  • A written plan acceptable to the Department to improve the bank’s compliance risk management program with regard to compliance by the bank with applicable New York and federal laws and regulations with respect to its foreign exchange business as it affects or pertains to the bank or New York customers; and
  • An enhanced written internal audit program acceptable to the Department with respect to the Bank’s compliance with applicable New York and federal laws and regulations, as well as the Bank’s internal policies and procedures, in its foreign exchange trading business as it affects or pertains to the bank or New York customers.

SWAMP STORIES

Mueller’s questions to Trump leaked

(courtesy zerohedge)

Mueller’s Questions For Trump Leaked; Read Them Here

The New York Times has obtained a list of four-dozen questions that Special Counsel Robert Mueller would like President Trump to answer, after Mueller’s office delivered the questions to Trump’s attorneys (however the Times notes that their source is not someone on Trump’s legal team).

Mueller has sought to question Trump for months over his business dealings, his relationships, and his communications with former staffers who have become embroiled in the probe. Trump, meanwhile, has at times expressed a desire to be interviewed by Mueller in the hopes of ending the investigation more quickly. The President’s lawyers eventually negotiated for Mueller to present a list of questions, which can be read below.

Mr. Trump’s lawyers gave Mr. Mueller several pages of written explanations about the president’s role in the matters the special counsel is investigating. Concerned about putting the president in legal jeopardy, his lead lawyer, John Dowd, was trying to convince Mr. Mueller he did not need to interview Mr. Trump, according to people briefed on the matter.

Mr. Mueller was apparently unsatisfied. He told Mr. Dowd in early March that he needed to question the president directly to determine whether he had criminal intent when he fired Mr. Comey, the people said.

But Mr. Dowd held firm, and investigators for Mr. Mueller agreed days later to share during a meeting with Mr. Dowd the questions they wanted to ask Mr. Trump. –NYT

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Amy Fiscus

@amyfiscus

Here are the questions Mueller wants to ask Trump: https://nyti.ms/2KruzLE 

Several questions focus on communications between Trump or members of his staff and Russia, while others focus on the infamous Trump Tower meeting between Don Jr. and Russian lawyer Natalia Veselnitskaya, which was organized by Fusion GPS associate Rob Goldstone.

Further questions pertain to:

  • Russian hacking during the 2016 election
  • Why Trump praised Wikileaks during the election and called on Russia to find Hillary Clinton’s deleted emails
  • Questions about Jeff Sessions, Michael Cohen, Jared Kushner, Reince Priebus and others
  • Trump’s decisions to fire his former National Security Advisor Mike Flynn as well as former FBI Director James Comey

Trump’s explanation for why he fired each individual has appeared to change at times, stoking speculation that the president may have obstructed justice.

In a similar vein, Mueller planned to inquire about Trump’s reported efforts to fire the special counsel.

What discussions did you have regarding terminating the special counsel, and what did you do when that consideration was reported in January 2018?” the question states, according to The Times.

Trump reportedly sought to fire Mueller on two occasions, but was talked out of it in both instances. –The Hill

Read the New York Times‘ analysis of the questions below:

https://www.scribd.com/embeds/377850154/content?start_page=1&view_mode=scroll&access_key=key-lVAUKPwWVD04fPxDLgk4&show_recommendations=true

end

trump furious at the Mueller leak and not one question on Russian collusion with the election

(courtesy zerohedge

Trump Slams “Disgraceful” Mueller Leak, Says Questions Show “Collusion Is A Phony Crime”

Late last night, the New York Times dropped the latest in its saga of reports (fed to its reporters, we imagine, by a senior member of Mueller’s team, if not the man himself) about the ongoing negotiations over a long-sought presidential interview.

Trump’s legal team has been wrangling with Mueller for months over the terms of a potential presidential interview. The president himself has vacillated between toying with cooperating and steadfast refusal.

Most recently, Rudy Giuliani, the newest member of his legal team, has taken charge of the negotiations, seeking to leverage his decades-old relationship with Mueller.

Last night, the Times published a list of questions that the Mueller team had delivered to Trump’s attorneys – a list that Trump’s team had sought for months.

Amy Fiscus@amyfiscus

And @mattapuzzo answered all of them. https://nyti.ms/2FsWW8o 

Amy Fiscus@amyfiscus

Here are the questions Mueller wants to ask Trump: https://nyti.ms/2KruzLE pic.twitter.com/rLMYTmRJZ7

Twitter Ads infView image on Twittero and privacy

Trump responded to the list of nearly four dozen questions with furious series of tweets this morning, declaring that none of the questions pointed to collusion with the Russians – the latest evidence that the whole probe is nothing more than a “witch hunt.”

Donald J. Trump@realDonaldTrump

So disgraceful that the questions concerning the Russian Witch Hunt were “leaked” to the media. No questions on Collusion. Oh, I see…you have a made up, phony crime, Collusion, that never existed, and an investigation begun with illegally leaked classified information. Nice!

Trump also questioned how he could be guilty of obstruction of justice if the crime he’s accused of interfering with never happened.

Donald J. Trump@realDonaldTrump

It would seem very hard to obstruct justice for a crime that never happened! Witch Hunt!

Then Trump turned his attention to a delegation of Trump administration officials and their coming trip to China. Trump asserted that, much like the North Korea issue and NAFTA, the US trade deficit with China “should have been fixed years ago.”

Donald J. Trump@realDonaldTrump

Delegation heading to China to begin talks on the Massive Trade Deficit that has been created with our Country. Very much like North Korea, this should have been fixed years ago, not now. Same with other countries and NAFTA…but it will all get done. Great Potential for USA!

Circling back to the Mueller questions, we can’t help but wonder: While the Times would have us believe that the leak came from Mueller’s office, what if Trump’s team intentionally leaked the questions to give their boss cover to finally fire the special counsel – or at least refuse to sit for an interview.

end

I will  see you WEDNESDAY night

HARVEY

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