May 8/TRUMP BACKS AWAY FROM THE IRAN/NUCLEAR DEAL./IT DID NOT TAKE ISRAEL LONG: ISRAEL ATTACKED TWO FACILITIES INSIDE SYRIA NEAR DAMASCUS/GOLD STEADY AT $1313.55/SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TO $16.46/DEUTSCHE BANK TO FIRE 20% OF USA EMPLOYEES I.E. OVER 2000 OF THEM/ARGENTINA NEEDS AN IMF BAILOUT AS THEIR BANK INTEREST RATE IS 40% AND YET THEIR PESO CONTINUES TO PLUMMET/AS DOES THE TURKISH LIRA/MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT/

 

 

GOLD: $1313,55  DOWN $ 0.10  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver: $16.46 DOWN 2 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Closing access prices:

Gold $1314.90

silver: $16.48

For comex gold:

MAY/

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR MAY CONTRACT:0 NOTICE(S) FOR nil OZ.

TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR 14 FOR 1400 OZ (0.0435 tonnes)

For silver:

MAY

127 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

635,000 OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 5161 for 25,805,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: BID $9173/OFFER $9277: DOWN $135(morning)

Bitcoin: BID/ $9389/offer $9264: DOWN $147  (CLOSING/5 PM)

 

end

First Shanghai gold fix comes at 10 pm est

The second Shanghai gold fix:  2:15 pm

First Shanghai gold fix gold: 10 pm est:  1320.63

NY price  at the same time: 1313.60

PREMIUM TO NY SPOT: $7.03

ss

Second gold fix early this morning:  1320.08

USA gold at the exact same time:  1313.05

PREMIUM TO NY SPOT:  $7.03

AGAIN, SHANGHAI REJECTS NEW YORK PRICING.

WE WILL NOT PROVIDE LONDON FIXES AS THEY ARE NOT ACCURATE AS TO WHAT IS GOING ON AT THE SAME TIME FRAME.

 FEDERAL RESERVE OF NEW YORK/EARMARKED GOLD REPORT
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York releases a report on the 29th of every month as to what foreign gold that is stored there is repatriated back to its mother country. They generally report that a country wishes to repatriate like they did with Germany, Holland and Venezuela.  Turkey announced that it has told the FRBNY to repatriate its gold back to Turkey.  The FRBNY did not make an announcement on that issue:
Here is the report for March 29.2018:
The total number of oz of gold that left the FRBNY during the month March was $17 million  and  the gold leaving was priced at $42.22 per oz
Thus  $42.22 dollars equals one oz
17 million dollars equals 402,652.77 oz
Thus a measly 12.524 tonnes leaves the shores of NY for Instanbul
Turkey has in excess of 300 tonnes of gold stored in NY
end

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL  472 CONTRACTS FROM  194,762  RISING TO 195,286  WITH YESTERDAY’S 0 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING   WE ARE NOW WITNESSING OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY COMEX LONG LIQUIDATION AS WE ENTERED INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY AS LONGS PACK THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATE OVER TO LONDON.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD A TINY SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP :   251 EFP’S FOR JULY AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE OF 251 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 251 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 251 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 1.255 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE ZERO RISE IN  SILVER PRICE (0 CENTS) AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR MAY COMEX DELIVERY. (29.03 MILLION OZ)

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF APRIL: (FINAL)

10,463 CONTRACTS (FOR 6 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 10463 CONTRACTS) OR 52.315 MILLION OZ: AVERAGE PER DAY: 1743 CONTRACTS OR 8.719 MILLION OZ/DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH:  52.315 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 7.47% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S1,197.8      MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018:                                               236.879     MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018:                                               244.95         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018:                                       236.67         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL 2018:                                          385.75         MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED RISE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX OF 472 WITH THE  0 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE. WE HAVE NOW ENTERED THE NEW ACTIVE MONTH OF MAY.   THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT IN FACT WE HAD AN SMALL  SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 251 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) . FROM THE CME DATA:  251 EFP CONTRACTS FOR JULY, AND ZERO FOR ALL OVER MONTHS   FOR  A DELIVERABLE FORWARD CONTRACT OVER IN LONDON WITH A FIAT BONUS (TOTAL: 251). TODAY WE GAINED 723  TOTAL OI CONTRACTS  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: i.e. 251 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH AN INCREASE OF 472  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE OF SILVER OF 0 CENTS AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $16.47 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN THIS  ACTIVE MAY DELIVERY MONTH. IT SURE SEEMS THAT WE MUST HAVE HAD SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING ON BOTH EXCHANGES.

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. .977 MILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 140% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MAY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 298 NOTICE(S) FOR 1,490,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER, WE HAVE NOW SET THE NEW RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51  ON APRIL 9.2018.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL: 2.485 MILLION OZ  AND MAY: 29.03 MILLION OZ )
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER  243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/ (FINAL)

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT). IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE BANKER CAPITULATION IN SILVER AS THEY STRUGGLE TO REMOVE SOME OF THEIR HUGE OBLIGATIONS.

In gold, the open interest FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE 4032 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 495,157 DESPITE THE TINY FALL IN THE GOLD PRICE/YESTERDAY’S TRADING (LOSS OF $0.55) WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY.  THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 3096 CONTRACTS :   JUNE SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 3096 CONTRACTS , MAY SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 0 CONTRACTS  AND AUGUST SAW THE ISSUANCE OF: 0 CONTRACTS WITH ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The new OI for the gold complex rests at 495,157. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A TINY SIZED  OI LOSS IN CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 4032  OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND AN FAIR SIZED 3096 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON.THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS: 936 CONTRACTS OR 93600 OZ = 2.911 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS OCCURRED WITH A LOSS OF $0.55

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 7445  EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY : 53,703 CONTRACTS OR 5,370,300  OZ OR 167.03 TONNES (6 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 8,951 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY OR 895,100 OZ/ TRADING DAY),,

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :    THIS MONTH IN 6 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 167.03 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 167.03/2550 x 100% TONNES =  6.55% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN APRIL ALONE.*** THE ACCUMULATION OF EFP CONTRACTS IS RISING PER MONTH.

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE 2,924.99*  TONNES   *SURPASSED ANNUAL PROD’N

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018:           653.22  TONNES

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018:         649.45 TONNES

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018:                741.89 TONNES  (22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR APRIL 2018:                   713.84 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

Result: A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 4032  WITH THE 55 CENT LOSS  IN PRICE // GOLD TRADING YESTERDAY ($0.55 LOSS). HOWEVER WE ALSO HAD A FAIR SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 3096 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 3096 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A TINY SIZED NET LOSS OF 936 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 

3096 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 4032 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the LOSS in total oi equates to 2.911 TONNES).

we had: 160 notice(s) filed upon for 16,000 oz of gold at the comex.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD…

WITH GOLD DOWN  $0.10 /NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY

Inventory rests tonight: 864.13 tonnes.

SLV/

WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS  TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 323.263 MILLION OZ/

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 472 CONTRACTS from 194,762 UP TO 195,234 (AND, CLOSER TO THE  NEW COMEX RECORD SET /APRIL 9/2017 AT 243,411/SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). THE PREVIOUS RECORD OTHER THAN WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER ONE YEAR AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.   OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS CONTINUES AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE: 0 EFP CONTRACTS FOR APRIL, 0 EFP CONTRACTS FOR MAY  (WE DO NOT GET A LOOK AT THESE CONTRACTS AS IT IS PRIVATE BUT THE CFTC DOES AUDIT THEM), AND 251 EFP’S FOR JULY AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  251 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 524 CONTRACTS TO THE 251 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A  GAIN OF 723 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  3.615 MILLION OZ!!! AND THIS OCCURRED WITH THE ZERO  RISE IN PRICE .  THE BANKERS ORCHESTRATED THEIR RAID THROUGHOUT LAST WEEK  DESPERATELY TRYING TO PARE THEIR GIGANTIC OPEN INTEREST SHORT ON BOTH EXCHANGES BUT TO NO AVAIL. JUDGING BY THE RECORD NUMBER OF EFP ISSUANCE DURING LAST MONTH OF APRIL AT 385.75 MILLION OZ AND THE TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES, I DO NOT THINK THAT OUR BANKERS HAVE BEEN TOO SUCCESSFUL. THE CONSTANT RAIDS ARE NOW BEING CALLED UPON BY OUR BANKER FRIENDS ARE DONE IN AN ATTEMPT TO SHAKE AS MANY SILVER LEAVES FROM THE SILVER TREE AS POSSIBLE.

RESULT: A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE ZERO RISE  IN SILVER PRICING / YESTERDAY (0 CENTS/) . BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER TINY SIZED 251 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR APRIL, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed UP 24.85 points or 0 .79%   /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 408.55 points or 1.36%    / The Nikkei closed UP 41.53 POINTS OR .18% /Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .12%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.3683/Oil DOWN to 69.81 dollars per barrel for WTI and 75.39 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED DEEPLY IN THE RED.   ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AT 6.3683 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3649/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING  STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE A FULL TRADE WAR IS BEGINNING/

/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

 

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA

Kim Agrees “Denuclearization Is Achievable” After Surprise Second Meeting With China’s Xi

With a historic summit between President Donald Trump and North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un just weeks away, Bloomberghas confirmed reports that Chinese President Xi Jinping and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un met in the port city of Dalian over the past two days – the second meeting between top officials of the two Communist allies in less than two months.

Kim traveled to China via an Air Koryo plane that’s believed to be Kim’s personal jet. Officials confirmed there are no direct air routes between Dalian and the North.

Plane

The first meeting took place in late March, when Kim traveled to China via an armored train in what is widely believed to have been the young dictator’s first trip abroad since he succeeded his father, Kim Jong Il, upon his death.

Kim

The second round of talks between the two Communist leaders are taking place following historic talks between South Korean leader Moon Jae-in and Kim at the DMZ late last month, where the leaders of the two Koreas agreed on a framework to end the Korean war.

Following reports of the meeting, President Trump tweeted that he’d be speaking with Xi by phone at 8:30 am ET, and that the primary topic would be trade, where “good things will happen”.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

I will be speaking to my friend, President Xi of China, this morning at 8:30. The primary topics will be Trade, where good things will happen, and North Korea, where relationships and trust are building.

According to BBG, Kim reportedly filled Xi in on developments in the Korean peninsula and pushed to strengthen communication and cooperation with China.

In comments reported after the meeting, Kim reiterated that, as long as the regime’s security is guaranteed, North Korea “does not need to have nuclear weapons…”

“As long as relevant parties eliminate the hostile policy and security threats against North Korea, North Korea does not need to have nuclear weapons, and denuclearization is achievable,” Kim was quoted as saying.

Xi agreed that “positive progress” had been made since the two leaders first met, adding, “I feel happy about it.”

His response was reported by China’s Xinhua news agency.

“After my first meeting with the chairman [Kim Jong Un], I’m very glad to see positive progress in both bilateral relations and the situation on the Korean Peninsula…. Developing the traditional friendship between China and North Korea is a common treasure of both nations. Improving friendship and cooperation between the two nations is a position both sides hold firmly and is the only correct choice. High-level exchanges between both sides carry important effects that are irreplaceable. Both sides need to maintain regular exchanges, boost strategic communications and mutual trust, and defend our common interests.”

As BBG points out, Dalian is home to China’s first domestically built aircraft carrier, which is nearly ready to start sea tests. The new carrier, known as the Type 001A, was built by China Shipbuilding Industry Corp. Trump recently revealed that his meeting with Kim has been scheduled for June, and that the location – which he did not reveal – had also been decided. It was later reported that Singapore will host the talks.

END

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 c CHINA

i)Amazing: we seem to see a plethora of dead bodies whenever somebody deals with meals. Now we witness Li Zhongqinq, 54 dead as he “fell to the floor”

( zerohedge)

ii)Talks between China and the uSA are not going well!!l  China claims that the World Trade Organization is being taken hostage by the USA

(courtesy zerohedge)

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)ITALY

As Tom Luongo predicted: new elections will loom in Italy and the strength will be in the Euroskeptic parties

( zerohedge)

ii)DEUTSCHE BANK/GERMANY/USA

This is going to hurt:  Deutsche Bank the world’s largest derivative player is planning on firing up to 20% of its  USA workers or a huge 2060 bankers.

( zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)As the uSA leaves the Iran deal,  Thiel’s Palantir becomes the key as it can gather information from its new technology:

1.Palantir’s software helps the IAEA plan and justify unscheduled probes, which have totaled 60 in Iran since the agreement came into force in 2016.

These enhanced investigative abilities, which are inextricably linked with the Iran deal

Palantir has spent years modifying its predictive-policing software for inspectors at the Vienna-based IAEA

4That sets up Palantir, which Thiel and his partners built with CIA funding, as the platform of choice for assessing the documents Israel claims to have detailing Iran’s secret efforts to build a bomb

(courtesy zerohedge)

ii)Mike Pompeo informed Europeans why Trump withdrew from the Iran deal

(courtesy zerohedge)

iii)Trump pulls USA out of Iran nuclear deal
(courtesy Rebecca Kheel/the Hill)

iv)ISRAEL

 Israel one high alert after spotting unusual movements of Iranian forces inside Syria
( zerohedge)
v)ISRAEL/SYRIA

at 4:30 pm est, Israel did not wait long as they launched an air strike on Syrian army positions near Damascus

(courtesy zerohedge)

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

7. OIL ISSUES

i)The author explains to us why the Russian exporting of gas into the UK is now vital to its interests:

( Katuna/OilPrice.com)

ii) Oil and gasoline extend their gains after another surprise crude inventory draw

( zerohedge)

8. EMERGING MARKET

i)ARGENTINA

The Argentinian Peso recovers a bit to 22.51 after falling badly to 23.15.  Argentina is using up its dollar reserves defending the currency and this necessitated a bailout by the IMF which secured them with a 30 billlion USA line of credit.

( zerohedge)

ii)VENEZUELA

What a sad state of affairs.  Venezuela was one of the best and richest countries in South America. It now is the worst and following close behind it is Argentina

(courtesy Alex Deluce/GoldTelegraph)

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Have fun with this:  the game:  world of warcraft currency is now worth 7 x times more than Venezuela cash
( Chris Morris/Fortune Magazine/NY)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

i)THIS MORNING’S EARLY TRADING/WARNING FROM JAMIE DIMON

Remember the words of David Stockman who said point blank that the 10 yr rate must rise and it will hit 4%. The problem is that this rate blows up trillions of dollars of derivatives. He warned us that the unprecedented QE unwind will cause catastrophic consequences

( zerohedge)

i a)THIS MORNING’S TRADING EMERGING MARKETS CHAOS

(zerohedge)

ii)NY Attorney General Schneiderman resigns after multiple sex abuse allegations

( zerohedge)

ii b)criminal probe commenced against disgraced NY Attorney General Schneiderman

( zerohedge)

iii)A must read…what will happen to the uSA ecoomy once 1.8 trillion dollars worth of bonds are dumped onto the market

(courtesy David Stockman/ContraCorner)

iii)SWAMP STORIES

a)Trump is considering grounding Giuliani after TV interviews went off course
(courtesy zero hedge)

b) The crook Mueller rejects Trump’s request to answer questions in writing

( zerohedge)

Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 4032  CONTRACTS UP to an OI level 495,157 DESPITE THE TINY LOSS IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($0.55 LOSS/ YESTERDAY’S TRADING)  FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE.   THE CME REPORTS THAT  THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED  COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS. WE HAD A SMALL SIZED 3096 CONTRACTS ISSUED: FOR  JUNE, 3096 CONTRACTS ISSUED,  FOR AUGUST ZERO AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:  TOTAL  3096 CONTRACTS.  THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 936 OI CONTRACTS IN THAT 3096 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST 4032  COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 936 contracts OR 93,600  OZ OR 2.911 TONNES.

Result: A CONSIDERABLE DECREASE IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST DESPITE THE TINY LOSS  IN PRICE YESTERDAY  (ENDING UP WITH A LOSS OF $0.55)THE  TOTAL OPEN INTEREST LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 936 OI CONTRACTS..

We have now entered the non  active contract month of MAY where we LOST 0 contracts REMAINING AT  364 contracts. We had 0 notices filed upon yesterday, so we LOST 0 contracts or 0 additional NIL oz will stand in this non active delivery month of May

The really big June contract month saw a LOSS of 12,714 contracts DOWN to 301,510 contracts. JULY saw a GAIN of 6 contracts to stand at 84.   The next big delivery month after June is August and here the OI ROSE BY 8088 contracts UP to 107,460.

We had 160 notice(s) filed upon today for 16,000  oz at the comex

THERE IS NO QUESTION THAT THE COMEX DOES NOT HAVE ANY  GOLD TO SATISFY UPON OUR LONGS.

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY: 220,614  contracts

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY: 259,169 contracts

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 472 CONTRACTS FROM 194,762 UP TO 195,234 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS)  WITH THE  0  CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING. SINCE WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY. WE  WERE  INFORMED THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED  251 EFP CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR JULY AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS.  THESE EFPS WERE ISSUED TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 251.   ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 723  SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A 472 CONTRACT GAIN AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 251 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON. DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE BOYS WERE VERY BUSY NEGOTIATING LONG COMEX CONTRACTS EMIGRATING TO LONDON,(AND WAITING FOR THEIR PASSPORTS)

NET GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:   723  CONTRACTS 

AMOUNT STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX

We are now in the  active delivery month of MAY and here the front month LOST 72 contracts FALLING TO 646 contracts. We had 127 notices filed upon yesterday so we SURPRISINGLY AGAIN GAINED 55 contracts or 275,000 additional ounces will  stand for delivery in this  active delivery month of May AS SOMEBODY AGAIN WAS DESPERATE FOR PHYSICAL SILVER..

June saw a GAIN of 11 contracts to stand at 761  The next big delivery month for silver is July and here the OI FELL by 723 contracts DOWN to 142,040. The next active delivery month after July for silver is September and here the OI ROSE by 782 contracts UP to 21,280

We had 298 notice(s) filed for 1,490,00OZ for the MAY 2018 contract for silver

INITIAL standings for MAY/GOLD

MAY 8/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
5,823.287 OZ
Delaware
Scotia
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  nil OZ
No of oz served (contracts) today
160 notice(s)
 16000 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
204 contracts
(20400 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
174 notices
17,400 OZ
0.5912 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz
 FINALLY AFTER MANY WEEKS, WE HAVE A PULSE AT THE GOLD COMEX TODAY
we had 0 kilobar transaction/
We had 0 inventory movement at the dealer accounts
total inventory deposit into the dealer accounts:  NIL  oz
total inventory withdrawals out of dealer accounts; nil oz
we had 2 withdrawals out of the customer account:
i) Out of Delaware:  4157.152 oz
ii) Out of Scotia:  1519.685 oz
total customer withdrawals:  5823.287 oz
we had 0 customer deposit
total customer deposits: nil oz
we had 0 adjustment(s)

For MAY:
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to  160 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 1 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAY. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (174) x 100 oz or 17,400 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY. (364 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (160 x 100 oz per contract) equals 37,800 oz, the number of ounces standing in this active month of APRIL (1.1850 tonnes)

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAY contract month:

No of notices served (174 x 100 oz or ounces + {(364)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (160 x 100 oz )which equals 37,800 oz standing in this  active delivery month of MAY . THERE IS 10.382 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY SO FAR.

WE LOST 0 OZ OF GOLD IN THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY.

total registered or dealer gold:  306,237.466 oz or 9.525 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   9,043,699.945 oz 281.29 tones
THE COMEX IS AGAIN IN STRESS AS ONLY 9.525 TONNES OF GOLD ARE LEFT TO SERVICE DELIVERIES. THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD AT THE COMEX TO SERVE UPON LONGS AND THUS THE REASON FOR THE EFP TRANSFER OVER TO LONDON.

IN THE LAST 18 MONTHS 73 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE APRIL DELIVERY MONTH

MAY INITIAL standings/SILVER

MAY 8/ 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 294,024.660 oz
CNT
Scotia
Brinks
HSBC
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
1,204,431.590
oz
CNT
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
394,886.190  oz
Brinks
No of oz served today (contracts)
298
CONTRACT(S)
(1,490,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
348 contracts
(1,740,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 5459 contracts

(27,295,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 1 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

i) Into CNT: 1,294,431,590 oz

total dealer deposits: nil oz

we had 1 deposits into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 140 million oz of  total silver inventory or 53.4% of all official comex silver. (140 million/263 million)

JPMorgan did not  deposit  into its warehouses (official) today.

ii) Into  Brinks: 394,886.190 oz

total deposits today: 394,886.190 oz

we had 4 withdrawals from the customer account;

i) out of CNT: 9925.540 oz

ii) Out of Scotia: 120,406.490 oz

iii) Out of Brinks: 12,126.860 oz

iv) Out of HSBC: 151,565.770

total withdrawals;  294,024.660  oz

we had 1 adjustment

i) Out of CNT: 38,216.60 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer account of CNT

.

total dealer silver:  68.811 million

total dealer + customer silver:  268,943million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the MAY. contract month is represented by 298 contract(s) FOR 1,490,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 5459 x 5,000 oz = 27,295,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY. (646) and the number of notices served upon today (298 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the MAY contract month: 5459(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAY(646) -number of notices served upon today (298)x 5000 oz equals 29,035,000 oz of silver standing for the MAY contract month 

WE GAINED 55 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 275,000 OZ WILL  STAND AT THE COMEX AS SOMEBODY WAS IN URGENT NEED OF PHYSICAL SILVER.

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ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 24,258 CONTRACTS

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 48,807 CONTRACTS

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF  48,807 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO 244 MILLION OZ  OR 34.8% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -1.75% (MAY4/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.20% to NAV (MAY 4/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -1.50%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ territory at -0.20%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail but being rescued by Sprott.
Sprott WINS hostile 3.1 billion bid to take over Central Fund of Canada

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA): NAV FALLS TO -2.24`%: NAV 13.59/TRADING 13.29//DISCOUNT 2.24.

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

MAY 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.10/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.13 TONNES

MAY 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.55/ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.13 TONNES

MAY 4/WITH GOLD UP $2.05/A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.13 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.60 TONNES

MAY 3/WITH GOLD UP $7.05/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 866.77 TONNES

MAY 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.15/ A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.43 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 866.77 TONNES

MAY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.15/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.20 TONNES

APRIL 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.05/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.20 TONNES.

APRIL 27./WITH GOLD UP $5.90/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.20 TONNES/

APRIL 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.20 TONNES

APRIL 25/AFTER 9 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF NO MOVEMENT OF GOLD INTO OUT OF THE GLD, WE HAD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.31 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.20 TONNES.

APRIL 24./WITH GOLD UP $9.90, WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES/

APRIL 23.2018/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.00/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES.

APRIL 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.20: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES

APRIL 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.25: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES/

APRIL 18/WITH GOLD UP $3.65: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES

APRIL 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES/

April 16/WITH GOLD UP$2.80/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES/

April 13/WITH GOLD UP $6.15, A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.90 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES

April 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.40/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.99 TONNES

April 11/WITH GOLD UP $13.85/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859,99 TONNES

APRIL 10/WITH GOLD UP $5.25/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.99 TONNES

APRIL 9/WITH GOLD UP$4.50/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.99 TONNES

APRIL 6/WITH GOLD UP $7.50 ,A HUGE CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ A DEPOSIT OF 5.90 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.99 TONNES

APRIL 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.20 WE HAD TWO ENTRIES: 1) TINY WITHDRAWAL OF .28 TONNES TO PAY FOR FEES AND 2) A DEPOSIT OF 2.06 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.09 TONNES

April 4/WITH GOLD UP $2.90 WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.31 TONNES

APRIL 3./WITH GOLD DOWN $9.30 WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.31 TONNES

APRIL 2/WITH GOLD UP $19.50, WE HAD A BIG  CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 6.19 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.31 TONNES

MARCH 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.20 AND OPTIONS EXPIRY FINISHED, WE HAD NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS A 846.12 TONNES

March 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.70, ANOTHER RAID ORCHESTRATED, AGAIN NO SURPRISES AS WE WITNESS ANOTHER 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD REMOVED/INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.12 TONNES

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MAY 8/2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 864.13 tonnes

*IN LAST 378 TRADING DAYS: 76.87 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 328 TRADING DAYS: A NET 79.43 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO GLD INVENTORY.

end

Now the SLV Inventory/

MAY 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 323.263 MILLION OZ.

MAY 7/WITH SILVER FLAT: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 942,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 323.263 MILLION OZ/

MAY4/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS/A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A DEPOSIT OF 1.224 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.205 MILLION OZ/

MAY 2/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS/A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 6.082 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.981 MILLION OZ/

MAY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.899 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.899 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.899 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENT/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316,899 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 25./WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.899 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 24./WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS/SOMETHING SPOOKED OUR CROOKS TO ADD SOME PAPER SILVER: A DEPOSIT OF 1.601 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.899 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 23.2018/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS, ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL FROM THE SLV INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.413 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.298 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.13 MILLION OZ//SLV RESTS TONIGHT AT 316.711 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 19/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: WE HAD A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.355 MILLION OZ/ MAKES ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE!!/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.841 MILLION OZ

APRIL 18/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ

APRIL 17/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS  AT 320.196 MILLION OZ

April 16/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/

April 13/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ.

April 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/

April 11/2018/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS:  NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 10/WITH GOLD UP 8 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 9/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS/WE HAD NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 6/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS, WE HAD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.319 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ

APRIL 5/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.877 MILLION OZ/

April 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS/A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A WITHRAWAL OF 135,000 OZ AND THIS IS PROBABLY TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.877 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 3./WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 2/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 29/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS, THE CROOKS DECIDED THAT THEY HAD BETTER ADD SOME 943,000 PAPER OZ TO THEIR INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ

March 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS/AGAIN NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ

MAY 8/2018:  NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV 

Inventory 323.263 million oz

end

6 Month MM GOFO 2.10/ and libor 6 month duration 2.52

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0FO+ 2.10%

libor 2.52 FOR 6 MONTHS/

GOLD LENDING RATE: .42%

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.78%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.55

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.23

end

Major gold/silver trading /commentaries for TUESDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.

GOLD/SILVER

Weekly Gold Update – Gol

Andrew Maguire’s Kinesis money which is a “bitcoin” but backed 100% by allocated gold and silver is set to go.

it think it would be a great idea to look at this!

please read at:  https://kinesis.money/#/

(Andrew Maguire)

Andrew Maguire

2:57 PM (1 hour ago)
to me

Harvey

Here It is my friend!  https://kinesis.money/#/ Please let everyone know.

Let catch up on Monday if you have time. We have billions in the hopper ready to be allocated on the 1st day of trading. The paper market days are over.

Warm regards

Andy

 END
Have fun with this:  the game:  world of warcraft currency is now worth 7 x times more than Venezuela cash
(courtesy Chris Morris/Fortune Magazine/NY)

‘World of Warcraft’ currency is now worth 7 times more than Venezuela’s cash

 Section: 

By Chris Morris
Fortune Magazine, New York
Monday, May 7, 2018

http://fortune.com/2018/05/07/world-of-warcraft-currency-bolivar-venezue…

Venezuela’s real-world currency, the bolivar, long ago fell below the value of the fake gold in Azeroth, the mythical setting of World of Warcraft (WoW). What’s remarkable is how much more valuable that virtual currency has become.

To put things in perspective, last August WoW‘s virtual gold was worth just under twice as much as the bolivar. Today, it’s worth nearly seven times as much — and possibly a lot more than that if you consider the black market value.

Here’s how the math works out.

Per Google, one U.S. dollar is worth 68,915 bolivars.

Compare that to the price of WoW tokens, official in-game credits that can be used to extend a player’s play time or buy in-game items. Tokens can be bought with either $20 real world cash or sold for a fluctuating amount of in-game gold. One tracking service lists the current gold price of a token as 203,035 pieces. That works out to about 10,152 gold gaming pieces per U.S. dollar.

By those calculations, World of Warcraft virtual gold would be worth 6.8 times as much as the bolivar.

If you factor in the black market rate of the bolivar, though, the difference is even more staggering. Dolar Today, which tracks the black market rate of the bolivar, seems to say the currency’s current value is 636,771.03 per U.S. dollar.

By that figure, WoW gold would be worth nearly 62 times as much as Venezuela’s official currency.

Of course Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has shifted his support away from the bolivar and over to the recently launched national cryptocurrency, the petro. Meanwhile Venezuelan citizens have taken to bartering in their day-to-day business dealings.


___________________________________________________________________

Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

 

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED DOWN 6.3688  /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 24.85 POINTS OR 0 .79%    / HANG SANG CLOSED UP 408.55 POINTS OR 1.36%
2. Nikkei closed UP 41.53 POINTS OR .18% /  /USA: YEN FALLS TO 108.95/  

3. Europe stocks OPENED RE    /USA dollar index RISES TO 93.66/Euro FALLS TO 1.1865

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO . +.05/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 108.95/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD FINALLY IN THE POSITIVE/BANK OF JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR YIELD CURVE AS THEY PURCHASE ALL BONDS TO GET TO ZERO RATE!!

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 69.81  and Brent: 75.39

3f Gold DOWN/Yen DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.54%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 1.85% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.30%

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 4.16?????????????????

3k Gold at $1310.65 silver at:16.47    7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 42/100 in roubles/dollar) 63.33

3m oil into the 69 dollar handle for WTI and 75 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 108.95 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 1.0027 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1899 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to +0.54%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.95% early this morning (THIS IS DEADLY TO ALL MARKETS). Thirty year rate at 3.12%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)

Nervous Markets Slide Ahead Of Trump’s Iran Announcement, EMs Roiled As Dollar Surge Continues

U.S. futures and European stocks are modestly lower, following a mostly green Asian session, amid growing jitters over today’s 2pm announcement by President Trump in which he will unveil the fate of the Iran nuclear deal.

Ahead of Trump’s much anticipated announcement this afternoon, it has been a case of sell the rumor and the news (for reasons Barclays explained overnight), with oil prices retreating from three-and-a-half year highs as investors weighed competing views on whether the U.S. will reimpose sanctions on OPEC producer Iran and the potential consequences of such a decision: as Bloomberg recaps, while foreign officials and analysts say Trump is likely to remove the U.S. from the pact, the president may also surprise allies by agreeing to stay in the accord a while longer as American and European diplomats forge side deals aimed at addressing his concerns.

As a result, there was some profit-taking as WTI dipped back under $70.00/bbl level following reports that European powers are close to a package deal to try and persuade Trump not to withdraw from the Iran deal; however, subsequent reports suggest that Trump may be inclined to dropping out of the agreement when he announces his decision at 2pm ET today.

Complicating matters, the potential fallout from a US withdrawal in the oil market is unclear. While consultant FGE is among industry watchers who have said renewed U.S. measures may cut production from OPEC’s third-largest member, Barclays Plc sees Iran’s output little changed in 2018, while RBC notes that “Iran’s exports could be cut by 200K bpd to 300K bpd” if the US restores sanctions. How European and Asian oil buyers deal with possible American action, as well as the effect on OPEC’s output curbs aimed at shrinking a global glut, will also be watched.

“Reaching the $70 milestone gave investors a sense of accomplishment and triggered profit-taking,” Satoru Yoshida, a commodity analyst at Rakuten Securities Inc., said by phone from Tokyo. Still, “oil is trading around $70 as the market is factoring in the possibility that the U.S. will unilaterally terminate the Iran deal and reimpose sanctions.”

Overnight Barclays published the following timeline of how we got here, and what happens next:

There was less confusion about the dollar, which continued its torrid surge since the April 17 PBOC RRR cut, rallying steadily for most of the overnight session across G-10 with the DXY hitting another high for 2018; meanwhile no fresh comments from Fed Chair Powell who spoke early in Zurich and hinted that EMs are on their own, led to a continuation of recent trend. The dollar climbed after erasing an earlier decline. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose for a third day to reach its highest level since December.

Across other G-10 currencies, the biggest slide was seen in the Canadian dollar, followed by fellow commodity currency the Australian dollar. Sterling headed for its lowest level versus the dollar since January on dismal U.K. house price data. The euro felt the heat from Italian politics, dropping to 1.1874, a new year-to-date low, while Sweden’s krona saw the biggest daily advance as the Riksbank’s minutes and policy maker comments were taken as more hawkish than markets had expected.

Meanwhile, as Bloomberg macro commentator and former Lehman trader Mark Cudmore writes, “all bullish biases neutralize amid widespread EM weakness, even PHP despite it having best overall long-term fundamentals.” Not helping ease concerns about growing turmoil among emerging markets, was Fed Chair Jerome Powell who warned that the Fed’s gradual push towards higher interest rates shouldn’t be blamed for any roiling of emerging market economies, which are well placed to navigate the tightening of U.S. monetary policy.

In a speech delivered in Zurich, the Fed chair argued U.S. decision-making isn’t the major determinant of flows of capital into developing economies, and that the influence of the Fed on global financial conditions should not be overstated, despite being blamed five years ago for the so-called taper tantrum.

“There is good reason to think that the normalization of monetary policy in advanced economies should continue to prove manageable for EMEs,” Powell said at a conference sponsored by the International Monetary Fund and Swiss National Bank in Zurich on Tuesday. “Markets should not be surprised by our actions if the economy evolves in line with expectations.”

The result: another “sea of red” day in today’s EM FX monitor.

Global equities largely followed these two concerns, with Europe’s Stoxx 600 down 0.5% amid broad risk aversion ahead of Trump’s decision on the Iranian nuclear deal later in the day. The FTSE (+0.1%) currently outperforming as UK traders return to their desks post-bank holiday, as well as being given a boost by Takeda’s GBP 46bln approach for Shire (+4.1%). FTSEMIB (-2.2%) is the worst performer due to election concerns, with the DAX (-0.4%) also underperforming, following an earnings miss for Deutsche Post (-6.1%).

Earlier, Asian equity markets traded mostly in the green, catching up with a strong Monday close on Wall Street where all 3 majors indexes closed in the green but off best levels after a late retreat in crude, while mixed Chinese trade data and a looming Trump announcement on the Iran agreement has also kept upside in the region contained. ASX 200 (+0.1%) is positive with gains led by strength in the largest weighted financials sector. Elsewhere, Nikkei 225 (+0.2%) shrugged off a firmer currency and conformed to the overall risk appetite, while Hang Seng (+1.4%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.8%) outperformed with healthcare and financials front running the gains despite further liquidity inaction and another consecutive net neutral position by the PBoC.

The latest Chinese trade data confirmed that the March export plunge was largely a Chinese new year calendar-driven outlier:

  • Chinese Trade Balance (CNY)(Apr) 182.8B vs. Exp. 189.15B (Prev. -29.8B).
    • Chinese Exports (CNY)(Apr) 3.7% vs. Exp. 4.0% (Prev. -9.8%)
    • Chinese Imports (CNY)(Apr) 11.6% vs. Exp. 10.4% (Prev. 5.9%)
  • Chinese Trade Balance (USD)(Apr) 28.78B vs. Exp. 27.80B (Prev. -4.98B).
    • Chinese Exports (USD)(Apr) Y/Y 12.9% vs. Exp. 8.0% (Prev. -2.7%)
    • Chinese Imports (USD)(Apr) Y/Y 21.5% vs. Exp. 16.0% (Prev. 14.4%)

Meanwhile, political fears are once again returning to Europe, where Italian BTPs sold off with the spread to bunds wider by ~8.5bps as early Italian elections are now the most likely scenario, sending the Italian bank index -2.8%.

As Italy underperformed heavily, USTs hold in a very tight range, and were barely changed for the session trading at 2.95%.

In overnight key central bank news, Fed Chair Powell said the market is “reasonably well aligned” with the Fed dot plot, adds markets should not be surprised with the Fed’s actions. Elsewhere, Fed’s Kaplan (non-voter, neutral) said the base case remains at 3 hikes total for this year.

The Riksbank minutes were released and showed several members expressing concerns about development of inflation going forward, as well as pointing out that it is important the Krona exchange rate develops in a manner compatible with inflation stabilizing close to the target. Riksbank’s Skingsley added that he is likely to back a hike in either October or December, and that as the Krona is expected to strengthen again over the forecast period, the effects of inflation can be seen as moderate.

In the latest Brexit news, UK PM May is reportedly facing renewed turmoil regarding Brexit options and is said to be under pressure from MPs across different parties to accept EEA membership or risk defeat in Commons. Furthermore, Dozens of Eurosceptic MPs in the UK’s Conservative party are expected to express their frustration today regarding  a lack of direction for the UK’s future post-Brexit.

Disney is set to report earnings after market close, while JOLTS job openings data is in the macro calendar

Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk

  • WTI crude futures continue to retrace from three-and-a-half year highs
  • Dollar index firming up again after another bout of consolidation, with the Dollar bid against all major counterparts bar the Jpy and Chf.
  • Looking ahead, highlights include APIs, President Trump (Iranian announcement at 1400ET/1900BST) and a 3yr note auction

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 2,661.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 388.60
  • MXAP up 0.5% to 173.62
  • MXAPJ up 0.4% to 564.59
  • Nikkei up 0.2% to 22,508.69
  • Topix up 0.4% to 1,779.82
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.4% to 30,402.81
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.8% to 3,161.50
  • Sensex up 0.05% to 35,227.42
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.1% to 6,091.89
  • Kospi down 0.5% to 2,449.81
  • German 10Y yield unchanged at 0.532%
  • Euro down 0.3% to $1.1887
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 3.7 bps to 1.505%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.7 bps to 1.293%
  • Brent Futures down 1.1% to $75.36/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,310.03
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.3% to 93.04

Top Overnight News

  • President Donald Trump says he will announce his decision on Iran Tuesday at 2 p.m. in Washington Geopolitical jitters — along with the start of the summer driving season and positive jobs data — had helped push oil above $70 a barrel for the first time since November 2014.
  • Takeda Pharmaceutical Co. reached an agreement to buy larger rival Shire Plc for about 46 billion pounds ($62 billion) in a deal that transforms it into a top drugmaker in the lucrative business of rare diseases and boosts its heft in the U.S.
  • Emerging market central banks are facing their stiffest test since the 2013 taper tantrum. Investors are increasingly betting the Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates into 2019, sending the dollar soaring against most developing-nation currencies in the past month
  • Italy’s Five Star Movement has abandoned its efforts to form a government and is gearing up for fresh elections. Italian bonds slid after Luigi Di Maio, head of the anti-establishment party, declared the campaign open
  • Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson attacks Theresa May’s customs plan as crazy, as the House of Lords reminds the U.K. Prime Minister that she doesn’t have the final say on Brexit
  • The Federal Reserve’s gradual push toward higher interest rates shouldn’t be blamed for any roiling of emerging-market economies, which are well placed to navigate the tightening of U.S. monetary policy, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said
  • Opposition lawmakers and rebels in Theresa May’s Conservative Party aim to push through two changes to the premier’s flagship Brexit legislation Tuesday, continuing its bruising passage through the House of Lords
  • HSBC Global AM, Legal & General Group Plc are among 250 wealth managers in a group known as the Climate Action 100+ that are asking the companies they own to bring their investment programs in step with the Paris Agreement on limiting global warming, even as Trump tries to unpick the deal
  • Treasury officials say they have no concern about demand for the ever-increasing slate of U.S. government debt. Bond investors are about to render their verdict

Asia equity markets traded mostly positive following a similar performance on Wall St where all 3 majors closed in the green but off best levels after a late retreat in crude, while mixed Chinese trade data and a looming Trump announcement on the Iran agreement has also kept upside in the region contained. ASX 200 (+0.1%) is positive with gains led by strength in the largest weighted financials sector. Elsewhere, Nikkei 225 (+0.2%) shrugged off a firmer currency and conformed to the overall risk appetite, while Hang Seng (+1.4%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.8%) outperformed with healthcare and financials front running the gains despite further liquidity inaction and another consecutive net neutral position by the PBoC. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lacklustre as focus centred on riskier assets, while the 10yr JGB auction also failed to impact prices with the results somewhat inconclusive in which the b/c printed higher than previous and accepted prices declined.

Top Asian News

  • China April Exports Climb, Imports Jump on Solid Global Demand
  • Alibaba Buys Rocket Internet’s Daraz; No Terms

Stoxx 600 is down 0.5% amid broad risk aversion ahead of the US decision on the Iranian nuclear deal later in the day. The FTSE (+0.1%) currently outperforming as UK traders return to their desks post-bank holiday, as well as being given a boost by Takeda’s GBP 46bln approach for Shire (+4.1%). FTSEMIB (-2.2%) is the worst performer due to election concerns, with the DAX (-0.4%) also underperforming, following an earnings miss for Deutsche Post (-6.1%).

Top European News

  • U.K. Home Prices Post Biggest Monthly Drop in Almost Eight Years
  • German March Ind. Production Rises 1% m/m; Est. +0.8% m/m
  • Takeda Clinches $62 Billion Deal to Buy Drugmaker Shire
  • Folli Follie Group Launches Share Buyback Program

In FX, the DXY has again firmed up after another bout of consolidation, with the Dollar bid against all major counterparts bar the Jpy and Chf. The index has now printed above 93.000 vs 92.974 at best yesterday, with little reaction to latest comments from Fed Chair Powell who merely stressed the need for clear policy communication to avoid market turbulence, He also claimed that EMs can cope with US normalisation, but the Try for one continues to struggle at new record lows vs the Greenback circa 4.3000. CAD: A relatively sharp pull-back in crude prices amidst speculation that the UK, France and Germany are on the cusp of a plan that might tempt US President Trump not to abandon the Iranian nuclear treaty, plus ongoing NAFTA uncertainty as negotiations resume are weighing heavily on the Loonie, as Usd/Cad spikes through the top of recent ranges and more convincingly above 1.2900. In fact, the pair is testing the water above 1.2950 at fresh multi-week peaks, with early March highs around 1.3000 next on the  upside. SEK: Extending gains vs the Eur (to sub-10.5000 levels) and Nok (also undermined by the retreat in oil) in wake of Riksbank minutes reaffirming year end rate hike guidance and the broad Swedish Central Bank view that the Krona will rally over time after a temporary period of weakness. JPY/CHF: Both showing relative resilience vs the Usd around 109.00 and within a 1.0000-50 band respectively, with perhaps some underlying safe-haven demand evident ahead of Trump’s eagerly-awaited Iran deal or no deal announcement (14.00ET/19.00BST). AUD: Another laggard on broadly weaker commodity prices and softer than forecast Aussie retail sales data overnight, with Aud/Usd back under the 0.7500 mark and Aud/Nzd losing 1.0700+ status again. GBP: Volatile as UK participants return from May Day to confirmation of a mega M&A deal that lifted Cable towards 1.3600 at one stage, and Gbp/Jpy up through 148.00, but the Pound now beating a retreat to retest 1.3500 vs the Usd and back below its 200 DMA (1.3542).

In Commodities, WTI crude futures continue to retrace from three-and-a-half year highs, back below the USD 70.00/bbl level following reports that European powers are close to a package deal to try and persuade Trump not to withdraw from the Iran deal. That said, later reports suggest that Trump may be inclined to dropping out of the agreement when he announces his decision at 1900BST today, a move that can disrupt global oil supply. “Iran’s exports could be cut by 200K bpd to 300K bpd” says RBC if the US restores sanctions. Elsewhere, gold prices have been choppy, tracking fluctuations in the USD, while 3-month copper on the LME was up 0.3% and zinc climbed 1.5% on expectations for strong Chinese data in the coming weeks. Iran has set June’s light crude official price for Asia USD 2/bbl above Oman/Dubai quotes.

US Event Calendar

  • 3:15am: Fed’s Powell to Speak at SNB/IMF Event in Zurich
  • 6am: NFIB Small Business Optimism, est. 104.5, prior 104.7
  • 10am: JOLTS Job Openings, est. 6,100, prior 6,052

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

As the UK felt like the Middle East yesterday it was apt that Oil stole the headlines. Originally WTI futures traded above $70 (around 1.61% higher for the day at the peak – $70.84) for the first time since November 2014. However another market moving Trump tweet late in the US session led to a reversal as he suggested that he would make a statement at 2pm today Washington time as to whether the US will remain in the Iran nuclear accord. The fact that he didn’t slam the deal again seemed to encourage thoughts that he might stay in the agreement to some degree and some risk premium disappeared. At the close WTI dipped back near $70 but still +0.40% higher on the session.

The recent run up in commodity prices is interesting for inflation which this week’s sees the all-important US CPI print on Thursday as its next major signpost. We’ll preview fully on Thursday. Elsewhere this week, EM will continue  to take some focus, in particular events with regards to Argentina. As a reminder, interest rates were hiked a further 675bps to 40% on Friday – the third hike in eight days which brings the cumulative increase to 12.75ppt from 27.25% over that period. The Peso weakened 0.4% against the Greenback yesterday, while the Turkish Lira fell 0.9%, as concerns for potential US sanctions on Iranian oil exports seemed to outweigh initiatives by the Turkish central bank to shore up the currency as it lowered the upper limit for foreign exchange. So another market that will look at Trump’s announcement today quite closely.

This morning in Asia, markets have followed a positive US lead from yesterday and are trading higher, with the Hang Seng (+1.17%), Nikkei (+0.16%), Kospi (+0.15%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.91%) all up. The yield on UST 10y are little changed while WTI oil is down c1% as we type. Elsewhere on trade, following last week’s visit by the US delegation to Beijing, China’s Vice Premier Liu is expected to visit the US next week for more trade talks. Datawise, China’s April trade surplus was stronger than expected at US$28.8bn (vs. US$27.8bn) as growth in imports outpaced exports (21.5% yoy vs. 12.9%)

Now recapping markets yesterday. European bourses were all higher, buoyed  by the lower Euro, M&A activity and higher oil prices, as the latter traded before President Trump’s tweet. Across the region, the Stoxx 600 (+0.64%) and DAX (+1.0%) were both higher, with gains led by the energy and tech sectors. The S&P pared back earlier gains but was still up for the second consecutive day (+0.35%), while the Dow (+0.39%) and Nasdaq (+0.77%) also advanced. The VIX dipped 0.1% to the lowest since early March (14.75).

Over in government bonds, core 10y bond yields were little changed with UST 10y flat at 2.951% while Bunds and OATs both fell c1.3bp. Conversely, peripherals outperformed with 10y yields down 1.5-3.5bp, partly reversing Friday’s losses. In FX, the US dollar index firmed for the second day (+0.20%) while the Euro fell to the lowest since early January (-0.32%). Elsewhere, precious metals softened slightly (Gold -0.02%; Silver -0.34%) while other base metals were little changed.

Away from the markets and moving onto central bankers speak now. In Europe, the WSJ noted the ECB’s Smet said the ECB is likely to phase out its QE program over the summer, possibly announcing a decision after its July policy meeting. Elsewhere, the ECB’s Praet noted that the recent economic softening is to be expected after a strong 2H17, albeit the “slowdown has come sooner than anticipated”. However, he added “there is so far no evidence that the moderation….reflects a durable softening in demand”. On rates, he said it will “evolve in a data-dependent and time consistent manner” while reaffirming that ample degree of monetary stimulus remains necessary.

Following on, the Fed’s Bostic echoed his peers’ comments on inflation, he said “we’re fluctuating around the 2% target, I’m comfortable with that….some overshoot is fine”. On the stronger oil price, he believe it should have a “less dramatic” impact on the US economy than before, in part as he is “not hearing from anybody right now that they are expecting this trend in oil prices to fundamentally change the trajectory of the economy”. Elsewhere, the Fed’s Kaplan’s base case for rates is still “three rate hikes for this year” and added that the path of raising rates should be “flatter than what we’re historically accustomed to”. Then he also noted that wage pressures are building and “it wouldn’t surprise me to see more wage pressure in the coming months”. Finally, Mr Barkin has made his inaugural speech after taking the helm as the Richmond Fed President. He said that US monetary policy is still accommodative and “it’s hard to argue that accommodation is appropriate when unemployment is low and inflation is effectively at our target”. Further, he said “you probably ought to go to neutral in that environment”.

Over at Italy, c2 months after the general election, efforts to form the next government are still in a gridlock. Bloomberg has cited an unnamed senior state official who noted that fresh elections in July is “probable” if a new Premier (yet to be appointed) fails to win a parliamentary confidence vote.

Before we take a look at today’s and the rest of the week’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the March consumer credit was weaker than expected at $11.6bln (vs. $16bln), in part as credit card debt fell the most since the end of 2012. Notably, annual growth for consumer credit was steady at 5% yoy, Elsewhere, the Euro area’s May Sentix investor confidence edged down 0.4pt mom and was below expectations at 19.2 (vs. 21). Germany’s March factory orders was below market and fell for the third consecutive month, leaving growth at 3.1% yoy (vs 5% expected).

Looking at today’s calendar, the early focus today will be in Germany with March trade data due along with the March industrial production print. In the UK the April Halifax house price index is due while in the US the NFIB small business optimism reading for April is due along with March JOLTS data. Away from the data Fed Chair Powell is due to speak in the morning in Zurich at a SNB/IMF event while the ECB’s Liikanen and the Riksbank’s Deputy Governor Jansson will also speak. EU27 envoys are also due to gather in Brussels to discuss the state of play in Brexit talks.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed UP 24.85 points or 0 .79%   /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 408.55 points or 1.36%    / The Nikkei closed UP 41.53 POINTS OR .18% /Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .12%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.3683/Oil DOWN to 69.81 dollars per barrel for WTI and 75.39 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED DEEPLY IN THE RED.   ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AT 6.3683 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3649/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING  STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE A FULL TRADE WAR IS BEGINNING/

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

North Korea/South Korea/usa

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

end

c) REPORT ON CHINA/HONG KONG

Amazing: we seem to see a plethora of dead bodies whenever somebody deals with meals. Now we witness Li Zhongqinq, 54 dead as he “fell to the floor”

(courtesy zerohedge)

Chairman Of Chinese Metals Company Dies After Mysterious Fall

In China, billionaires and executives of even some of the country’s largest conglomerates have been known to abruptly disappear as rumors swirl about them being detained by the government for some unspecified financial crimes (crimes that carry hefty penalties in the Chinese legal system).

But in an even more shocking development, Li Zhongqing, the 54-year-old chairman of the board of metals company Jiangxi Ganneng Co., abruptly died on Monday after he “fell to the floor,” according to a statement released by the Shenzen Stock Exchange, where the company’s shares trade.

Authorities are investigating the incident.

Here’s the full statement in English:

On the morning of May 7, 2018, Li Zhongqing, supervisor of the seventh board of supervisors and chairman of the board of supervisors, fell to the floor.

After the death, relevant departments have been involved in the investigation. At present, the company’s production and business conditions are all normal. Special announcement.

Reuters had a slightly different take on the Chairman’s demise, reporting that he “died from falling off a building.”

After considering the suspicious circumstances surrounding Li’s death, one can’t help but wondering if there’s some kind of fraud afoot – or even if Jiangxi Xinneng is itself a giant fraud. Or even if the death itself was fabricated.

According to Bloomberg, Li had been a member of the supervisory board since February 2013. Further information about the death wasn’t immediately available.

The official statement (in Chinese) can be found below:

https://www.scribd.com/embeds/378478722/content?start_page=1&view_mode=scroll&access_key=key-Bb3yKuSE1Io3gY7FPI2R&show_recommendations=true

end

Talks between China and the uSA are not going well!!l  China claims that the World Trade Organization is being taken hostage by the USA

(courtesy zerohedge)

US Slams “Alice In Wonderland”-China At Trade Talks; China Claims WTO “Taken Hostage” By Washington

Despite all the happy-talk of “constructive conversations” from last week’s meeting of the minds between Washington and Beijing, reports from today’s World Trade Organization meeting suggest things are not going so well.

As Bloomberg reports, Chinese and U.S. ambassadors to the WTO clashed at the regulatory body’s general council meeting in Geneva, where Beijing lashed out at President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on $150 billion of Chinese goods. Washington defended its measures and criticized China’s vows of retaliation.

Today’s meeting “was extraordinary in its intensity,” WTO Spokesman Keith Rockwell said. “We had the two most powerful members of the WTO weighing in on their views of each others’ policy in a way I have not seen in my many years here.”

Reuters reports that the new U.S. ambassador to the World Trade Organization, Dennis Shea, said something had gone “terribly wrong” with judges at the world body and that China’s arguments showed Beijing was living in a fantasy.

…there was a “steadily worsening rupture of trust” by the Appellate Body

“Something has gone terribly wrong in this system when those charged with adjudicating the rules are so consistently disregarding those very rules,”

Beijing’s exhortations against protectionism have “entered the realm of Alice in Wonderland.”

“It is amazing to watch a country that is the world’s most protectionist, mercantilist economy position itself as the self-proclaimed defender of free trade and the global trading system…”

“White is black. Up is down.”

As if those comments were not exponential enough, China accused US of hostage-taking at the WTO (which probably has a ring of truth to it). Reuters reports that China’s Ambassador to the WTO, Zhang Xiangchen, told its membership on Tuesday, that…

“the United States is threatening the World Trade Organization with “three hard blows”, including taking the system of judicial appointments hostage.

Zhang said it was “dangerous and devastating” that the United States was challenging the WTO’s fundamental guiding principles by blocking new judges, by imposing global tariffs on steel and aluminium, and by threatening China with a separate $50 billion package of tariffs.

However, Shea responded in kind…

“The truth is, it is China that is the unilateralist, consistently acting in ways that undermine the global system of open and fair trade,” Shea said.

“The WTO must avoid falling down this rabbit hole into a fantasy world, lest it lose all credibility.”

But apart from that – talks are going well!!

And President Trump tweeted on Tuesday that he would speak to Chinese President Xi Jinping later in the day on trade,“where good things will happen.”

end

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

ITALY

As Tom Luongo predicted: new elections will loom in Italy and the strength will be in the Euroskeptic parties

(courtesy zerohedge)

8. EMERGING MARKET

ARGENTINA

The Argentinian Peso recovers a bit to 22.51 after falling badly to 23.15.  Argentina is using up its dollar reserves defending the currency and this necessitated a bailout by the IMF which secured them with a 30 billlion USA line of credit.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Peso Rebounds After Argentina Secures IMF Bailout

With Fed Chair Jay Powell implying that ’emerging markets are on their own’, it appears the collapse of Argentina’s currency has sent them running into the arms of The IMF to secure a bailout.

Bloomberg reports that Argentina is said to have negotiated a $30 billion credit line with The IMF. This report follows Argentine President Macri addressing the nation noting that “market conditions are more difficult” and that Argentina “is one of the world’s countries that most depends on debt” (rather like America).

The Peso is rebounding from its earlier crash on the headlines…

Argentina’s 100-Year bonds however are taking it on the chin…

As a reminder, back in March, the Argentine government rebuffed an investor proposal that it should request a flexible credit line from the International Monetary Fund to shore up the nation’s finances, according to three people with direct knowledge of the matter.

How times have changed.

end

VENEZUELA

What a sad state of affairs.  Venezuela was one of the best and richest countries in South America. It now is the worst and following close behind it is Argentina

(courtesy Alex Deluce/GoldTelegraph

Venezuela’s Once-Promising Gold Industry Is In Utter Shambles

Authored by Alex Deluce via The Gold Telegraph,

Not surprisingly, socialist Venezuela has defaulted on yet another debt. In 2016, it entered into an agreement with Gold Reserve, Inc. to repay 1.03B owed over a canceled mining project, as ordered by the World Bank. Payments were to be made in monthly installments, but Venezuela has ceased making any payments following the fourth quarter of 2017.

Several companies have actively explored for gold in the country. But Venezuela forced out the foreign investors, and its gold mining operations have been taken over by illegal miners, usually under the supervision of Venezuela’s army. The ensuing chaos and corruption have left Venezuela’s once-promising gold industry in utter shambles.

Placed in charge of mining activities, the army has delivered approximately $100 million in gold to the Central Bank of Venezuela in Caracas. The country desperately needed those revenues after its once-plentiful oil reserves plummeted following nationalization of the industry by then President Hugo Chavez. Once the government seized the gold mines, production fell drastically, from 11 tons annually from 2005 to 2009 to a mere 500 kilos a year since 2015.

As Venezuela’s industries crumble, so has its ability to repay its massive debts. Gold Reserve, Inc. is just one company that has not seen repayment. Another, Crystallex, awarded a settlement of $1.4 billion, is also struggling to enforce payment of its debts.

Socialism has destroyed two of Venezuela’s major industries, and it has left Venezuelans hungry and in despair. President Maduro’s government is hanging on by a thread and is depending on a corrupt military to retain a semblance of peace. The military has not hesitated to use guns and force to achieve its objective.

As Venezuela’s bolivar has become nearly worthless after losing 99.9 percent of its value, and with inflation at 2000 percent, its citizens have been unable to afford food or medical care. To alleviate the crisis, Venezuela has requested that pharmaceutical companies accept gold or diamonds in payment for medicine. The desperate government is resorting to an improvised medieval barter system. It is not known whether any company has taken the administration up on its offer, but Venezuela’s history of defaulting on payments would argue against it. It’s unknown exactly how much Venezuela holds in precious gems, but much of the mining for gems has been taken over by groups of illegal miners – as has gold mining. If the government were to nationalize the diamond mines, it might well meet the same fate as the once-abundant oil and gold industries.

Gold Telegraph@GoldTelegraph_

CRISIS IN VENEZUELA 🔥🇻🇪

For 6 eggs it costs 300,000 bolivares. Which implies that each egg costs 50,000 bs.

Monthly minimum wage: 392,646 bolivars

Hyperinflation is destroying the country…

RETWEET to raise awareness! 🚨🚨

According to Tito López, head of Venezuela’s Pharmaceutical Industry Chamber, pharmaceutical companies have not received payments for over a year. Ninety-five percent of needed medication, such as antibiotics and hypertension medicine, are difficult to find. In a jarring understatement, Mr. Lopez says, “What we’re missing is a serious system that actually guarantees payments.”

One pharmaceutical company expressed an interest in accepting gold in exchange for medicine, but the government was unable to guarantee payment. Former president Hugo Chavez urged Venezuelans to shun money in an effort to defeat capitalism. Sadly, Chavez’s plans have come to a bleak fruition. Venezuelans are “shunning” money because the currency is worthless and there are too few commodities on which to spend it.

Venezuela’s private citizens are already resorting to bartering for necessities, offering goods on sites such as Facebook in exchange for other hard-to-come-by commodities. Bread for medicine has become a means of survival. Such are the realities of socialism. The country has been plagued by starvation and food riots, which President Maduro’s army has attempted to suppress through brutal methods.

Forty years ago, Venezuela, then a democracy, was one of South America’s most prosperous countries with a thriving economy, much of which was supported by an abundance of oil. That ended with the nationalization of the oil industry in 1976 and marked the descent of Venezuela into the miseries of socialism. It was slow but steady progress. The two political parties, the Acción Democrática (AD) and the Christian Democratic Comité de Organización Política Electoral Independiente (COPEI) advocated a mixed economy but remained committed to a reasonable semblance of democracy.

During the 1978 election, the AD party advocated greater government involvement, while COPEI represented less government intrusion and more self-reliance in the private sector. It was the perfect opportunity for COPEI candidate Louis Herrra Campins to champion his party’s philosophy. But oil wealth proved too strong and irresistible. The country began to make grander and more unrealistic promises, such as providing 600,000 houses in five years. The abundance created by democracy made these promises possible, but the subsequent embrace of socialist methods made these promises impossible to keep. Corruption became endemic as the oil industry was destroyed by global competition, and all the government’s promises turned into pipe dreams. Venezuela used the fruits of democracy to achieve its own downfall.

When Hugo Chavez overturned and rewrote Venezuela’s constitution, it was the end of any semblance of democracy. Current President Maduro has proclaimed himself president for life, and he has strengthened the army to ensure his plan succeeds. Left with a mountain of debt, no means of repayment, Maduro is relying on the army to keep the citizens in check, by whatever means possible. Opposition is no longer tolerated.

Socialism has succeeded in Venezuela beyond Marx’s wildest dreams. And it has turned the country into a living nightmare for its citizens. Venezuela is a country in crisis with no salvation in sight.

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00 am

Euro/USA 1.1865 DOWN .0068/ REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ SPAIN VS CATALONIA/REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:/TRUMP HEALTH CARE DEFEAT//ITALIAN REFERENDUM DEFEAT/AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA FALLING INTEREST RATES AGAIN/HOUSTON FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES DEEPLY IN THE RED   

USA/JAPAN YEN 108,95 UP 0.050(Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/SIGNALS U TURN WITH INCREASED NEGATIVITY IN NIRP/JAPAN OUT OF WEAPONS TO FIGHT ECONOMIC DISASTER/

GBP/USA 1.3498 DOWN.0069  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.2961 UP .0082 (CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 68 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1865; / Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED UP 24.85 POINTS OR 079%  /   Hang Sang CLOSED UP 408.55 POINTS OR 1.36% /AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP.12% / EUROPEAN BOURSES  OPENED RED

The NIKKEI: this TUESDAY morning CLOSED UP 41.53 OR .18% 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED  DEEPLY IN THE RED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / : Hang Sang CLOSED UP 408.55 POINTS OR 1.36%   / SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 24.85 POINTS OR 0.79%  /

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP .12%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED  UP 41.53 POINTS OR .18%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN 

Gold very early morning trading: 1309.90

silver:$16.43

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.95% !!! UP 0  IN POINTS from MONDAY night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/ 

The 30 yr bond yield 3.12 UP 0  IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early  TUESDAY morning: 93.06 UP 31  CENT(S) from MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

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And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.735% UP 6  in basis point(s) yield from MONDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.0.053%  UP 4/5   in basis points yield from MONDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.320% UP 5  IN basis point yield from MONDAY/

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.866  UP 11  POINTS in basis point yield from MONDAY/

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 55 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:RISES TO +.561%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY

END

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IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for MONDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1867 DOWN .0066(Euro DOWN 66 Basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/

USA/Japan: 109.13 UP 0.189 Yen DOWN 19 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3525 DOWN .0043( POUND DOWN 43 BASIS POINTS)

USA/Canada 1.2963 UP  .0084 Canadian dollar DOWN 84 Basis points AS OIL FELL TO $69.04

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This afternoon, the Euro was DOWN 66 to trade at 1.1867

The Yen FELL to 109.13 for a LOSS of 19 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE

The POUND FELL BY 44 basis points, trading at 1.3525/

The Canadian dollar FELL by 84 basis points to 1.2963/ WITH WTI OIL FALLING TO : $69.04

The USA/Yuan closed AT 6.3706
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.054%  UP 4/5  IN BASIS POINTS / yield/
Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 3   IN basis points from MONDAY at 2.978% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.1403  UP 2      in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 93.10  UP 36 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 1:00 PM EST

London: CLOSED DOWN 1.39 POINTS OR .02%
German Dax :CLOSED DOWN 35.93 POINTS OR 0.28%
Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 9.49 POINTS OR .17%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 27.20 POINTS OR 0.27%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 401.22 POINTS OR 1.64%

The Dow closed UP 2.89 POINTS OR 0.01%

NASDAQ closed UP 1.69 Points OR 0.01%      4.00 PM EST

WTI Oil price; 69.04  1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 74.58 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE CROSS: 63.52 UP 60/100 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE LOWER BY 60 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES TO +.561% FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:30 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:$69.68

BRENT: $75.94

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.97%   THIS RAPID RISE IN YIELD IS ALSO VERY DANGEROUS/RECESSION COMING/DERIVATIVES FRY!!

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.13%/DEADLY

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1865 DOWN .0068  (DOWN 68 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.13 UP 0.185/ YEN DOWN 19 BASIS POINTS/ .

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 93.09 UP 34 cent(s)/dangerous as the lower the dollar the higher the inflation.

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.3550: DOWN 0.0018  (FROM YESTERDAY NIGHT DOWN 18 POINTS)

Canadian dollar: 1.2946 DOWN 65 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: +0.561%


VOLATILITY INDEX:  14.71  CLOSED  DOWN 0.04   

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.369%  .

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

Oil Ends Lower, Stocks Unchanged After Trump Pulls Out

“storm in a teacup”

Of course today’s big headline was confirmation that Trump is pulling US out of the Iran Nuclear Deal. That sparked some volatility in WTI that suggest extreme positioning is at play… Gold was also in play after Trump’s address…

Defense stocks rallied happily on the back of Israel bomb shelter headlines and of course Trump/Iran…

*  *  *

Overall the day was mixed with Trannies and Small Caps outperforming and Nasdaq, Dow, S&P all lagging as machines tried desperately to get them green…and they all closed within a tick of unch

VIX was monkeyhammered back to a 14 handle after Trump’s headlines – which makes perfect sense as things just got a whole lot less uncertain… all to get the Dow green – no matter how briefly – WTF!

S&P tagged its 50DMA but failed to hold it and rolled over…

Treasury yields were modestly higher on the day but rallied after Trump’s announcement…

But the yield curve flattened once again to its lowest close since Oct 2007…

The Dollar rallied once again – but driven by overnight gains and US session weakness…

The Dollar closed green for 2018…

But it was Emerging Market FX that was in real trouble once again as Argentina, Mexico, and Turkey all saw currencies slump…

Cryptocurrencies slipped a little lower today with only Bitcoin Cash higher on the week…

Gold ended the day marginaly higher and crude lower…

-END-

THIS MORNING’S TRADING EMERGING MARKETS CHAOS

(zerohedge)

EM FX Plunges: Argentine Peso Re-Crashes, Turkish Lira Tumbles To Record Low

Just hours after Fed Chair Jay Powell implied that ’emerging markets are on their own’, EM FX is re-collapsing…

with Argentina (despite a 1275bp rate hike) and Turkey both crashing to new record lows…

“There is good reason to think that the normalization of monetary policy in advanced economies should continue to prove manageable for EMEs,” Powell said, adding that “markets should not be surprised by our actions if the economy evolves in line with expectations.

So much for the unprecedented Argentina rate-hike and Treasury Minister’s reassuring comments last week…

How much more can BCRA do? They have a scheduled meeting today.

“If the ARS remains under pressure and continues to drift upward we do not rule out further rate hikes at the scheduled May 8 meeting, or even ahead of it,” Goldman Sachs said

Goldman expects central bank to reiterate it is “ready to do more to anchor the currency and inflation expectations (preserve a hiking bias) and to signal that monetary policy will remain very tight for as along as needed”

Bloomberg reports that Argentina’s central bank sold Lebacs due in June in the secondary market at 40%, according to two people with direct knowledge (it used these notes last week to signal commitment to tighter monetary policy).

And the Turkish Lira broke above 4.3 per USD – weakest on record – and is now down 7 days in a row…

And as we detailed earlier, as for the indicator that markets should keep an eye on to decide when it’s time to panic, we reported yesterday that Bank of America is keeping an eye on one specific catalyst for imminent contagion: “EM FX never lies and a plunge in Brazilian real toward 4 versus US dollar is likely to cause deleveraging and contagion across credit portfolios.”

 END

THIS MORNING’S EARLY TRADING/WARNING FROM JAMIE DIMON

Remember the words of David Stockman who said point blank that the 10 yr rate must rise and it will hit 4%. The problem is that this rate blows up trillions of dollars of derivatives. He warned us that the unprecedented QE unwind will cause catastrophic consequences

(courtesy zerohedge)

“Perfect Storm” Hits Yields; Dimon Warns “We Don’t Fully Understand” Impact Of Unprecedented QE Unwind

Jamie Dimon is worried. Between rising inflation and tax-cut-driven growth printing better-than-expected, the JPMorgan CEO told Bloomberg TV this morning that The Fed may raise interest rates more than many anticipate, and it would be wise to prepare for benchmark yields to climb to 4 percent.

And Dimon is confident that ‘Murica can handle 4%…

“It might force the 10-year up [if the Fed boosts short-term rates more than expected]…

You can easily deal with 4 percent bonds and I think people should be prepared for that.

https://www.bloomberg.com/api/embed/iframe?id=62d7ea25-7650-4e49-90f0-abc8fb972451

Bear in mind that 4% is still well below the 5.5% pre-2008-crash average for 10Y yields.

With the Fed paring back its balance sheet and the federal government increasing its borrowing, the U.S. will have to finance by the end of the year “$400 billion a quarter — that’s a lot, that’s a huge shift from the past,” Dimon also said.

Along with cutbacks in bond purchases by other central banks, it “may cause more volatility, higher rates in a way we don’t fully understand” given the exit from quantitative easing is unprecedented, he said. And as the yield curve shifts flatter and flatter, so VIX will rise with it…

Bloomberg notes that, for Dimon, the key is that markets are in uncharted territory when it comes to what central banks are setting out to do.

“We’ve never had QE, we’ve never had reversal,” Dimon said.

Dimon’s warning comes just days after billionaire bond investor Bill Gross at Janus Henderson threw in the towel temporarily on his bond bear market thesis. As we noted previously, he now expects the yield to “meander” between 2.80 percent and 3.15 percent for the rest of the year — in what he termed a “hibernating bear market.”

However,  Michael Hasenstab, Franklin Templeton’s chief investment officer for global macro, agreed with Dimon,telling Bloomberg TV this morning that 10Y U.S. Treasury yields will “easily” be higher than 4 percent.

Hasenstab warned, a “perfect storm” is pushing Treasury yields higher…

“In a normal situation with U.S. growth at 3%, inflation at 2% and rising, in history the 10-year yield would be 4.5% to 5.5%. We’re not completely in a normal situation, but we’re getting closer to that state.”

However, he is not adding to his already large bet against Treasuries. Probably a good idea since the world and their pet rabbit is now short bonds…

This won’t end well.

NY Attorney General Schneiderman resigns after multiple sex abuse allegations

(courtesy zerohedge)

“We Could Rarely Have Sex Without Him Beating Me.” NY AG Schneiderman Resigns After Multiple Abuse Allegations

Update: New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman announced his resignation Monday night, hours after The New Yorker magazine published allegations of physical abuse and controlling behavior by four women who had romantic relationships or encounters with him.

“It’s been my great honor and privilege to serve as Attorney General for the people of the State of New York,” Schneiderman said in a statement.

In the last several hours, serious allegations, which I strongly contest, have been made against me.

While these allegations are unrelated to my professional conduct or the operations of the office, they will effectively prevent me from leading the office’s work at this critical time. I therefore resign my office, effective at the close of business on [Tuesday].”

One has to wonder what odds the bookies would have given for Schneiderman to resign his office before Trump. Now we all wait anxiously for President Trump’s tweet on the matter.

In 2016, Schneiderman joked that he would leave the United States for the Dominican Republic if Donald Trump is elected president. Perhaps now is the time Eric?

“[Trump is] the kind of person who goes to the Super Bowl and thinks the people in the huddle are talking about him.” ―Eric Schneiderman

No Eric, they’re talking about you.

* * *

Sometimes in bed, she recalls, he would be “shaking me and grabbing my face” while demanding that she repeat such things as “I’m a little whore.” She says that he also told her, “If you ever left me, I’d kill you.” -The New Yorker

New York’s Democratic Attorney General, Eric Schneiderman has been a prominent voice in the #MeToo movement – suing Harvey Weinstein in the wake of his sexual misconduct scandal and advocating for women’s rights. Now, Schneiderman himself stands accused by four women of choking, hitting, and threatening themduring brutal, alcohol-fueled sexualassaults.

Revealing the accusations are the New Yorker’s Jane Mayer and Ronan Farrow – the latter of whom broke bombshell allegations last October by thirteen women involved in the Harvey Weinstein scandal.

Two of Schneiderman’s accusers did not reveal their identities, while the other two, Michelle Manning Barish and Tanya Selvaratnam, have come forward in full. All four accuse the New York Attorney General of heinous and abusive sexual assaults – along with threats, mental abuse, and stealing prescription medication.

All have been reluctant to speak out, fearing reprisal. But two of the women, Michelle Manning Barish and Tanya Selvaratnam, have talked to The New Yorker on the record, because they feel that doing so could protect other women. They allege that he repeatedly hit them, often after drinking, frequently in bed and never with their consent. Manning Barish and Selvaratnam categorize the abuse he inflicted on them as “assault.” They did not report their allegations to the police at the time, but both say that they eventually sought medical attention after having been slapped hard across the ear and face, and also choked. Selvaratnam says that Schneiderman warned her he could have her followed and her phones tapped, and both say that he threatened to kill them if they broke up with him. (Schneiderman’s spokesperson said that he “never made any of these threats.”) –The New Yorker

One of the anonymous accusers says Schneiderman told Manning Barish and Selvaratnam that he “also repeatedly subjected her to nonconsensual physical violence,” but was too afraid to come forward.

The fourth woman – a prominent New York attorney, says that Schneiderman slapped her across the face and left a mark after she rebuffed his advances.

She recalls screaming in surprise and pain, and beginning to cry, and says that she felt frightened. She has asked to remain unidentified, but shared a photograph of the injury with The New Yorker.

Schneiderman, in a statement said “In the privacy of intimate relationships, I have engaged in role-playing and other consensual sexual activity. I have not assaulted anyone. I have never engaged in nonconsensual sex, which is a line I would not cross.”

Michelle Manning Barish says her romantic involvement with Schneiderman spanned the summer of 2013 until New Year’s Day, 2015, while Selvaratnam was with the AG from the summer of 2016 until the fall of 2017. Both women, as the New Yorker writes, are “articulate, progressive Democratic feminists in their forties who live in Manhattan.

They work and socialize in different circles, and although they have become aware of each other’s stories, they have only a few overlapping acquaintances; to this day, they have never spoken to each other. Over the past year, both watched with admiration as other women spoke out about sexual misconduct. But, as Schneiderman used the authority of his office to assume a major role in the #MeToo movement, their anguish and anger grew. –The New Yorker

Four months after the Harvey Weinstein story broke, Schneiderman’s office proudly announced that his office was filing a civil-rights suit against the former movie mogul. In a February press conference, Schneiderman denounced Weinstein, saying “We have never seen anything as despicable as what we’ve seen right here.”

Schneiderman then launched an investigation on May 2nd into the prior handling of criminal justice complaints of Weinstein at the request of Governor Andrew Cuomo, who said in a speech that “sexual-assault complaints must be pursued aggressively, and to the fullest extent of the law.” As the New Yorker notes, “The expanding investigation of the Weinstein case puts Schneiderman at the center of one of the most significant sexual-misconduct cases in recent history.”

Schneiderman’s activism on behalf of feminist causes has increasingly won him praise from women’s groups. On May 1st, the New York-based National Institute for Reproductive Health honored him as one of three “Champions of Choice” at its annual fund-raising luncheon. Accepting the award, Schneiderman said, “If a woman cannot control her body, she is not truly equal.” But, as Manning Barish sees it, “you cannot be a champion of women when you are hitting them and choking them in bed, and saying to them, ‘You’re a fucking whore.’ ” –New Yorker

Manning Barish said of Schneiderman’s involvement in the Weinstein investigation “How can you put a perpetrator in charge of the country’s most important sexual-assault case?

Selvaratnam describes Schneiderman as “a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde” figure, and says that seeing him lauded as a supporter of women has made her “feel sick,” adding, “This is a man who has staked his entire career, his personal narrative, on being a champion for women publicly. But he abuses them privately. He needs to be called out.” –New Yorker

“His hypocrisy is epic,” says Manning Barish. “He’s fooled so many people.

Schneiderman, she says, would pressure her to drink to excess with him, often getting plastered “two bottles of wine in a night.

“I would come over for dinner. An already half-empty bottle of red wine would be on the counter. He had had a head start. ‘Very stressful day,’ he would say.” Sometimes, if she didn’t drink quickly enough, she says, he would “come to me like a baby who wouldn’t eat its food, and hold the glass to my lips while holding my face, and sweetly but forcefully, like a parent, say, ‘Come on, Mimi, drink, drink, drink,’ and essentially force me – at times actually spilling it down my chin and onto my chest.” Schneiderman, she recalls, “would almost always drink two bottles of wine in a night, then bring a bottle of Scotch into the bedroom. He would get absolutely plastered five nights out of seven.” On one occasion, she recalls, “he literally fell on his face in my kitchen, straight down, like a tree falling.” Another evening, he smashed his leg against an open drawer, cutting it so badly that “there was blood all over the place.” She bandaged it, but the next day she went to his office to change the dressing, because the bleeding hadn’t stopped.

Schneiderman also allegedly took prescription tranquillizers, says Manning Barish, often asking her to refill her own Xanax prescription so that he could steal half of them for himself. (Schneiderman’s spokesperson said that he has “never commandeered anyone’s medications.”)

Sometimes in bed, she recalls, he would be “shaking me and grabbing my face” while demanding that she repeat such things as “I’m a little whore.” She says that he also told her, “If you ever left me, I’d kill you.”

Ironically, after his election to the New York State Senate in 1998 where he served for twelve years, Schneiderman wrote several laws, including one which created specific penalties for strangulation in 2010. He also chaired a committee that investigated domestic-violence charges against former state senator Hiram Monserrrate (D), who was kicked out of office after a conviction for assaulting his girlfriend.

During the hearings, the legislators learned that New York State imposed no specific criminal penalty for choking, even though it is a common prelude to domestic-violence homicides. Not only did Schneiderman’s bill make life-threatening strangulation a grave crime; it also criminalized less serious cases involving “an intent to impede breathing” as misdemeanors punishable by up to a year in prison. “I’m just sorry it took us so long in New York State to do this,” Schneiderman declared at the time. “I think this will save a lot of lives.”

The other Schneiderman accuser who revealed her name, Tanya Selvaratnam – a feminist author, actor and film producer, says that she met Schneiderman at the 2016 Democratic National Convention. After they began dating, “it was a fairy tale that became a nightmare,” as Selvaratnam says Schneiderman began physically abusing her in bed, and that it got worse over time.

“The slaps started after we’d gotten to know each other,” she recalls. “It was at first as if he were testing me. Then it got stronger and harder.” Selvaratnam says, “It wasn’t consensual. This wasn’t sexual playacting. This was abusive, demeaning, threatening behavior.”

When Schneiderman was violent, he often made sexual demands. “He was obsessed with having a threesome, and said it was my job to find a woman,” she says. “He said he’d have nothing to look forward to if I didn’t, and would hit me until I agreed.” (She had no intention of having a threesome.) She recalls, “Sometimes, he’d tell me to call him Master, and he’d slap me until I did.” Selvaratnam, who was born in Sri Lanka, has dark skin, and she recalls that “he started calling me his ‘brown slave’ and demanding that I repeat that I was ‘his property.’ ”

Then, the abuse got worse

Schneiderman “not only slapped her across the face, often four or five times, back and forth, with his open hand; he also spat at her and choked her. “He was cutting off my ability to breathe,” she says. Eventually, she says, “we could rarely have sex without him beating me.”

In her view, Schneiderman “is a misogynist and a sexual sadist.” She says that she often asked him to stop hurting her, and tried to push him away. At other times, she gave in, rationalizing that she could tolerate the violence if it happened only once a week or so during sex. But “the emotional and verbal abuse started increasing,” she says, and “the belittling and demeaning of me carried over into our nonsexual encounters.” He told her to get plastic surgery to remove scars on her torso that had resulted from an operation to remove cancerous tumors. He criticized her hair and said that she should get breast implants and buy different clothes. He mocked some of her friends as “ditzes,” and, when these women attended a birthday celebration for her, he demanded that she leave just as the cake was arriving. “I began to feel like I was in Hell,” she says.

Selvaratnam also said Schneiderman routinely “drank heavily,” took sedatives, and pushed her to drink with him.

“Drink your bourbon, Turnip” – his nickname for her. In the middle of the night, he staggered through the apartment, as if in a trance. “I’ve never seen anyone that messed up,” she recalls. “It was like sleeping next to a monster.”

And then came the threats…

He had said he would have to kill me if we broke up, on multiple occasions. He also told me he could have me followed and could tap my phone,” said Selvaratnam.

And in irony of all ironies…

Eric Schneiderman

@AGSchneiderman

Without the reporting of the @nytimes and the @newyorker—and the brave women and men who spoke up about the sexual harassment they endured at the hands of powerful men—there would not be the critical national reckoning underway. A well-deserved honor: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/16/business/media/pulitzer-prizes.html?action=Click&contentCollection=BreakingNews&contentID=66831169&pgtype=Homepage 

Reporters and editors at The New York Times on Monday after their articles detailing allegations of sexual harassment by powerful men, including the film mogul Harvey Weinstein, helped The Times win the Pulitzer Prize for public service.

New York Times and New Yorker Share Pulitzer for Public Service

Reporting on sexual harassment — including the predations of the film mogul Harvey Weinstein — was recognized by the Pulitzer board. The New York Times won in three categories.

nytimes.com

Read the rest of the accusations against Schneiderman here at The New Yorker.

Arthur Schwartz@ArthurSchwartz

No. He won’t. https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/02/eric-schneiderman-donald-trump-new-york-214734 

Will This Man Take Down Donald Trump?

They’ve been squaring off for years. Now New York’s attorney general is emerging as the leader of the Trump resistance.

politico.com

END
criminal probe commenced against disgraced NY Attorney General Schneiderman
(courtesy zerohedge)

Criminal Probe Launched Against Disgraced NY Attorney General Schneiderman

The Manhattan District Attorney’s office announced on Tuesday morning that it was opening a criminal investigation into allegations of physical abuse by that pinnacle of hypocrisy and “virtue signalling”, New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman, who resigned just hours after accounts of abuse by four women were published.

Schneiderman resigned Monday night within hours of an exposé in The New Yorker detailing the four women’s accounts – a swift and shocking fall for a Democrat who brought charges against Harvey Weinstein in the wake of the #MeToo movement, and ane point was thought to be President Trump’s eventual downfall.

The four women went on the record, accusing Schneiderman of choking, hitting and threatening them during brutal, alcohol-fueled sexual assaults – which they say were not consensual. While neither woman filed any police complaints, both said they sought out medical attention and confided in people close to them about the abuse.

Sometimes in bed, she recalls, he would be “shaking me and grabbing my face” while demanding that she repeat such things as “I’m a little whore.” She says that he also told her, “If you ever left me, I’d kill you.”

She recalls screaming in surprise and pain, and beginning to cry, and says that she felt frightened. She has asked to remain unidentified, but shared a photograph of the injury with The New Yorker.

It wasn’t consensual. This wasn’t sexual playacting. This was abusive, demeaning, threatening behavior.” –The New Yorker

Manhattan DA Cyrus R. Vance Jr. said on late Monday that prosecutors would be investigating the claims.

Schneiderman, 63, told the New Yorker that “In the privacy of intimate relationships, I have engaged in role-playing and other consensual sexual activity. I have not assaulted anyone. I have never engaged in nonconsensual sex, which is a line I would not cross.”

However after fellow New York Democrats, including Gov. Andro Cuomo and U.S. Sen Kirsten Gillibrand called for his resignation, he resigned immediately.

“In the last several hours, serious allegations, which I strongly contest, have been made against me,” he said in a statement late Monday. “While these allegations are unrelated to my professional conduct or the operations of the office, they will effectively prevent me from leading the office’s work at this critical time.” He said he would resign at the close of business on Tuesday.

In the interim, State Solicitor Genera, Barbara Underwood will serve as acting Attorney General.

Socialist Progressive New York City Mayor de Blasio felt it would be appropriate to not comment on this stunning scandal.

Inside City Hall

@InsideCityHall

Mayor de Blasio says he does not think it’s appropriate to comment on the bombshell Eric Shneiderman story in @NewYorker.

Meanwhile, in front of Scheiderman’s house right now…

Andrew Siff

@andrewsiff4NY

The scene outside @AGSchneiderman house on

END
SWAMP STORIES
Trump is considering grounding Giuliani after TV interviews went off course
(courtesy zero hedge)

Trump Considers Banning Giuliani From TV Interviews After Failure To Stay “On Message”

President Trump is reportedly considering benching the newest addition to his legal team, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, after Giuliani repeatedly dropped the ball during interviews with Fox’s Sean Hannity and others during a disastrous media blitz last week.

The Associated Press reported Tuesday morning that Trump is growing “increasingly irritated” with Giuliani, who failed to stay “on message” during last week’s media blitz, and is beginning to question whether Giuliani should do any more television interviews.

Trump is also reportedly annoyed that Giuliani has “breathed new life” into the Daniels story (though, to be fair, with two lawsuits winding their way through courts in New York and Los Angeles, the story probably wasn’t going to disappear from headlines anytime soon).

Giuliani

Giuliani famously caused an uproar last week after he suggested that Trump was, in fact, made aware of Michael Cohen’s $130,000 “hush money” payment to adult film star Stormy Daniels after the fact.

He then dug himself in deeper when he refused to rule out the possibility that Cohen might’ve paid other women.

Trump has also snapped at Hannity for saying during the interview that Trump had “funneled” money to Daniels via a law firm. Trump was apparently upset at the connotation of the world “funneled.”

And apparently, other Trump allies – including attorney Alan Dershowitz – are growing concerned about Giuliani’s frequent screw-ups.

“They’re admitting to enough that warrants scrutiny. It shouldn’t be put on television shows off the cuff,” said Alan Dershowitz, the emeritus Harvard law professor who has been informally advising Trump on the Russia collusion probe. “This is not the way to handle a complicated case.”

Of course, the comments about Giuliani’s performance haven’t been exclusively negative.

Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said Monday that Trump felt the former mayor “added value” to his outside legal team. Trump himself said on Friday that Giuliani was still “learning the subject matter”, adding that he is a “a great guy but he just started a day ago.”

In one criticism that has been frequently reported over the past week, some Trump aides are concerned that Giuliani is behaving like a “principal” and not like “a member of the team.”

The State Department has also cautioned that Giuliani – who famously declared that he would only accept the position of secretary of state, but did not receive the job – doesn’t speak for the department after he said last week – again off the cuff – that North Korea would be releasing the three US prisoners in their custody. This has not yet happened.

“He speaks for himself and not on behalf of the administration on foreign policy,” State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said Monday.

Presumably, even if Trump were to ban Giuliani from doing interviews, the former mayor and one-time presidential contender would continue spearheading negotiations with Special Counsel Robert Mueller, with whom he has an extensive working relationship from their years at the Department of Justice. Because the Trump team couldn’t afford another high-profile exit at such a crucial juncture in the investigation.

end
The crook Mueller rejects Trump’s request to answer questions in writing
(courtesy zerohedge)

Mueller Rejects Trump Request To Answer Questions In Writing: CBS

Contrary to reports that President Trump is considering benching his newest attorney, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, following a series of disastrous and revealing interviews last week, Giuliani just confirmed to CBS News during an interview with correspondent Paula Reid that Special Counsel Robert Mueller has rejected the Trump legal team’s request to answer investigators’ questions in a written format.

That contradicts claims (also made by Giuliani last week) that it would be at least a few weeks before Trump’s legal team would have any insight into Mueller’s decision.

Giuliani

Trump’s team had been pushing for Mueller to accept written questions to help the president – whose tendency toward embellishment has been well-documented – avoid a perjury trap.

If Trump does assent to being interviewed, the questioning likely wouldn’t take place until after his historic summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

Giuliani told Reid that he and the president’s legal team continue to be in communication with the special counsel, but that he wants to have a better sense of the facts before engaging in formal negotiations about a possible interview.

Giuliani said Mr. Trump’s team also wants some issues to be off-limits, although he wouldn’t elaborate on which ones, and they want a time limit for the interview.

In addition, Giuliani also told Reid he’d want to know whether the interview would become public, and whether they would have the chance to issue a rebuttal to anything alleged by the special counsel.

If they can come to an agreement on the terms of an interview, Giuliani says he would like to wait until after the North Korea summit to prepare Mr. Trump. He believes that it would take several days to prepare the president for this kind of interview and he would not want to take him away from preparing for talks with North Korea.

If negotiations are not successful and Mr. Trump is subpoenaed, he will fight it, Giuliani said. The case would likely end up at the Supreme Court.

Giuliani, who is apparently Trump’s point man during negotiations with the Mueller team (the two man have a decades-long working relationship), last week said that if Trump does sit for an interview, it would last only a few hours – and certainly wouldn’t resemble the marathon 12-hour long questioning sessions to which some Trump associates (Steve Bannon, for example) have been subjected.

This is just the latest sign that Trump and his legal team are leaning toward rejecting Mueller’s interview request. It’s widely expected that the special counsel will then seek to subpoena the president, which could trigger a constitutional crisis that would need to be resolved by the Supreme Court.

 end
A must read…what will happen to the uSA ecoomy once 1.8 trillion dollars worth of bonds are dumped onto the market
(courtesy David Stockman/ContraCorner)

Stockman Slams ‘Simple’ Steve Mnuchin & The Donald’s Fabulous Fiscal Folly

Authored by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog,

There has never been a more fiscally clueless team at the top than the Donald and his dimwitted Treasury secretary, Simple Steve Mnuchin. After reading the latter’s recent claim that financing Uncle Sam’s impending trillion dollar deficits will be a breeze, we now understand how he sat on the Board of Sears for 10-years and never noticed that the company was going bankrupt.

In any event, fixing to borrow upwards of $1.2 trillion in FY 2019, Simple Steve apparently didn’t get the memo about the Fed’s unfolding QT campaign and the fact that it will be draining cash from the bond pits at $600 billion annual rate by October. After all, no one who can do third-grade math would expect that the bond market can “easily handle” what will in effect be $1.8 trillion of homeless USTs:

U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said he’s unconcerned about the bond market’s ability to absorb rising government debt after his department said it borrowed a record amount for the first quarter. ‘It’s a very large, robust market — it’s the most liquid market in the world, and there is a lot of supply,” he said… ‘But I think the market can easily handle it.’  (harvey; no way!!)

Then again, Simple Steve is apparently not alone in his fog of incomprehension. Even if you did get the memo—like most of the Wall Street day traders—you might still be under the delusion that the Fed is your friend and that when push comes to shove, it will put QT on ice in order to forestall any unpleasant hissy-fitting in the casino.

That is, it’s allegedly still safe to buy the dips or play the swing trade between the 50-DMA and 200-DMA because the Powell Put undergirds the latter. So never fear dear punters: At about 2615 on the S&P 500 (the current 200-DMA), the Eccles Building cavalry will ride to the rescue.

That would appear to be the meaning of the chart below—except it isn’t. What it really says is that after nine years of buying the dips successfully, Wall Street has essentially deputized its own cavalry.

Accordingly, for the last two years the 200-DMA has held—but the buying spurts have been entirely faith-based, not Fed enabled. Well, except in the passive sense that open-mouth policy in the form of benign “forward  guidance” and a tepid pace of rate increases have mis-directed—even euthanized—the Wall Street punters (as possibly intended).

But QT and the huge cash drain in the bond pits is really where it’s at. And if Simple Steve doesn’t know it, the day traders and robo-machines are now simply choosing to ignore it—until they can’t.

What we are saying is there is no “Powell Put” at 2615 (200-DMA) or 2460 (400-DMA) or even 2250 (800-DMA).

To the contrary, there is in our judgment 15-20% of downside before the Fed relents, but by that point it will be too late.

To wit, when the Powell Put fails to appear as expected, the casino will have its Wile E. Coyote moment. And at that point there will be nothing to stop the doomsday machine of ETFs/vol shorts/risk parity trades/levered bond funds/CTA trend followers and combustible bespoke gambles from plunging off the high cliffs of Bubble Finance.

You could call it a perfect storm. Simple Steve and the Donald are completely clueless about the fiscal monster they have unleashed, while the arrogant overlords of the central bank truly believe they have bestowed the main street economy with ox-like strength and self-fueling forward momentum.

Accordingly, QT is not “data dependent” and is viewed by Powell and his posse as operating on auto-pilot. They are, in fact, not even mentioning it any longer in their post-meeting commentary.

As is clear from the chart, however, the great shrink is happening. And the $70 billion shown here is just the UST side of the bond dumping campaign. There is another 40% share of the shrinkage coming from the run-off of what was once the Fed’s $1.8 trillion GSE portfolio, as well.

To be sure, the Fed heads may bobble-and-weave on the precise number and timing of the parallel interest rate rises depending up the second decimal point of gains in the PCE and AHE (average hourly earnings). But that’s the misdirection.

The main event is QT and the $600 billion bond dumping experiment, and the latter is not at all about forestalling inflation or staying ahead of the curve.

Instead, it’s about the Fed’s permanent institutional franchise and the preservation of its unparalleled power base. In turn, that requires re-loading the Fed’s dry powder with all deliberate speed— in order to be adequately provisioned for the next recession.

With only 13 months left before even the freakishly long expansion of the 1990s (119 months) is in the rearview mirror, even the Keynesian monetary central planners at the Fed can see the hand-writing on the wall. And they also know that they dare not risk a recession without a prompt Fed-bestowed stimulus cure—least they end up succumbing to the same public ridicule as the proverbial Naked Emperor.

Perhaps that’s why we are hearing such brave talk from the Fed’s effective #2 head honcho, John Williams. The latter has spent a lifetime at the San Francisco Fed and is soon to takeover the top job at the New York Fed, which actually executes the central bank’s day-to-day intrusions in the financial markets; and equally importantly, Williams embodies and formulates the FOMC group-think about as well as any among the inner circle.

Having perhaps already forgotten the delusionary talk of the summer of 2007, Williams averred  recently that there is no reason to hesitate on the Fed’s normalization campaign. Said he,

“This is pretty much a goldilocks economy”.

Folks, if that doesn’t scare the bejesus out of you, we can’t imagine what would. After all, unless you think that industrial production is totally dispensable in today’s world of 24/7 social media enthrallment, what we have on main street is just about the polar opposite of “goldilocks”.

To wit, real production of industrial output is up a scant 1.2% since the pre-crisis peak ten years ago, while consumption of real durable goods has soared by 53%. We’d be more than willing to bet that isn’t sustainable—nor is it a remotely reasonable basis for the Fed to declare “mission accomplished” with respect to main street prosperity.

Still, that get’s us to the great bond market collision dead ahead. For the first time in history, the combined financial arms of the state—the Treasury and Fed— will be selling government debt, existing and new, with malice aforethought.

And it’s not just the bloated size of the borrowing nut—although the record issuance of $488 billion during Q1 alone should be come kind of wake-up call even as to girth.

The real scary part, however, is the timing and the cyclical setting. We are now in month #107 of the current so-called business expansion and Washington’s combined financial arms will be dumping $1.8 trillion or nearly 9% of GDP into the bond pits.

By contrast, at the peak back in Q4 2000, Uncle Sam was running a 2.3% of GDP surplus and the Fed was still absorbing existing debt at a $40 billion annual rate. At current economic size, that would amount to a $500 billion rate of combined arms supply of cash into the bond market.

Needless to say, the difference between draining $1.8 trillion of cash from the bond market in the up-coming fiscal year versus supplying $500 billion back then is the difference between financial night and day.

Likewise, even after two unfinanced tax cuts and two unfunded wars during the George W. Bush tenure, Washington’s combined arms drain of cash from the bond market was only $140 billion in 2007 or just 1.0% of GDP.

That puts us in truly uncharted waters where the sheer math of the thing promises carnage on both ends of the Acela Corridor.

We’d bet that before long Simple Steve will be sweating profusely and the Wall Street punters will rue the day they placed their chips on the non-existent Powell Put.

As for goldilocks, cursed will be her name in the corridors of the Eccles Building – even as the monetary central planners flee the building.

I will  see you WEDNESDAY night

HARVEY

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