GOLD: $1322,20 UP $ 9.60 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)
Silver: $16.74 UP 22 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)
Closing access prices:
Gold $1321.25
silver: $16.71
For comex gold:
MAY/
NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR MAY CONTRACT:165 NOTICE(S) FOR 16500 OZ.
TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR 613 FOR 61300 OZ (1.9066 tonnes)
For silver:
MAY
146 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR
730,000 OZ/
Total number of notices filed so far this month: 5664 for 28,320,000 oz
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Bitcoin: BID $9278/OFFER $9378: UP $25(morning)
Bitcoin: BID/ $9121/offer $9221: DOWN $231 (CLOSING/5 PM)
end
First Shanghai gold fix comes at 10 pm est
The second Shanghai gold fix: 2:15 pm
First Shanghai gold fix gold: 10 pm est: 1322.18
NY price at the same time: 1314.85
PREMIUM TO NY SPOT: $7.33
ss
Second gold fix early this morning: 1320.69
USA gold at the exact same time: 1313.65
PREMIUM TO NY SPOT: $7.04
AGAIN, SHANGHAI REJECTS NEW YORK PRICING.
WE WILL NOT PROVIDE LONDON FIXES AS THEY ARE NOT ACCURATE AS TO WHAT IS GOING ON AT THE SAME TIME FRAME.
Let us have a look at the data for today
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL 929 CONTRACTS FROM 195,865 FALLING TO 194,936 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S 6 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY COMEX LONG LIQUIDATION AS WE ENTERED INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY AS LONGS PACK THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATE OVER TO LONDON. WE WERE NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD A TINY SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP : 2033 EFP’S FOR JULY AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE OF 2033 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 2033 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 2033 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 10.16 MILLION OZ ACCOMPANYING:
1.THE 6 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND
2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR MAY COMEX DELIVERY. (29.8 MILLION OZ)
ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF APRIL: (FINAL)
12,935 CONTRACTS (FOR 8 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 12,935 CONTRACTS) OR 64.675 MILLION OZ: AVERAGE PER DAY: 1616 CONTRACTS OR 8.084 MILLION OZ/DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER: SO FAR THIS MONTH: 64.675 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 9.239% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)
ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S: 1,210.1 MILLION OZ.
ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018: 236.879 MILLION OZ
ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018: 244.95 MILLION OZ
ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018: 236.67 MILLION OZ
ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL 2018: 385.75 MILLION OZ
RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX OF 929 DESPITE THE 6 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE. WE HAVE NOW ENTERED THE NEW ACTIVE MONTH OF MAY. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT IN FACT WE HAD AN STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2033 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) . FROM THE CME DATA: 2033 EFP CONTRACTS FOR JULY, AND ZERO FOR ALL OVER MONTHS FOR A DELIVERABLE FORWARD CONTRACT OVER IN LONDON WITH A FIAT BONUS (TOTAL: 2033). TODAY WE GAINED 1104 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: i.e. 2033 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH AN DECREASE OF 929 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH THE RISE IN PRICE OF SILVER OF 6 CENTS AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $16.51 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE MAY DELIVERY MONTH. IT SURE SEEMS THAT WE MUST HAVE HAD SOME BANKER SHORT COVERING ON BOTH EXCHANGES.
In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. .974 MILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 139% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).
FOR THE NEW FRONT MAY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 146 NOTICE(S) FOR 730,000 OZ OF SILVER
IN SILVER, WE HAVE NOW SET THE NEW RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51 ON APRIL 9.2018.
ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:
- HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY (MARCH: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL: 2.485 MILLION OZ AND MAY: 29.8 MILLION OZ )
- HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018
- HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
- RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/ (FINAL)
AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND. TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT). IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE BANKER CAPITULATION IN SILVER AS THEY STRUGGLE TO REMOVE SOME OF THEIR HUGE OBLIGATIONS.
In gold, the open interest ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE 3753 CONTRACTS UP TO 495,151 DESPITE THE FALL IN THE GOLD PRICE/YESTERDAY’S TRADING (LOSS OF $0.55). WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY. THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A HUGE SIZED 11,948 CONTRACTS : JUNE SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 9848 CONTRACTS , MAY SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 0 CONTRACTS AND AUGUST SAW THE ISSUANCE OF: 2100 CONTRACTS WITH ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO. The new OI for the gold complex rests at 495,151. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S. THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY. THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD SIZED OI GAIN IN CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 3753 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND AN CONSIDERABLE SIZED 11,948 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON.THUS TOTAL OI GAIN: 15,701 CONTRACTS OR 1,570,100 OZ = 48.83 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS OCCURRED WITH A LOSS OF $0.55
YESTERDAY, WE HAD 11535 EFP’S ISSUED.
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY : 77,186 CONTRACTS OR 7,718,600 OZ OR 240.08 TONNES (8 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 9,648 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY OR 964,800 OZ/ TRADING DAY),,
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 7 TRADING DAYS IN TONNES: 240.08 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 240.08/2550 x 100% TONNES = 9.41% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN APRIL ALONE.*** THE ACCUMULATION OF EFP CONTRACTS IS RISING PER MONTH.
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE: 2,998.02* TONNES *SURPASSED ANNUAL PROD’N
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018: 653.22 TONNES
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018: 649.45 TONNES
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018: 741.89 TONNES (22 TRADING DAYS)
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR APRIL 2018: 713.84 TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 3753 DESPITE THE 55 CENT FALL IN PRICE // GOLD TRADING YESTERDAY ($0.55 LOSS). HOWEVER WE ALSO HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 11,948 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED. THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX. I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 11,948 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED NET GAIN OF 15,701 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:
11,948 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 3753 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 48.83 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THESE OCCURRED AT THE COMEX WITH A LOSS OF 55 CENTS IN TRADING.
we had: 165 notice(s) filed upon for 16500 oz of gold at the comex.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:
GLD…
WITH GOLD UP $9.60 /A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FROM THE GLD??
Inventory rests tonight: 862.96 tonnes.
SLV/
WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV
/INVENTORY RESTS AT 323.263 MILLION OZ/
end
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 929 CONTRACTS from 195,865 UP TO 194,936 (AND, CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET /APRIL 9/2017 AT 243,411/SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). THE PREVIOUS RECORD OTHER THAN WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER ONE YEAR AGO. THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89. OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS CONTINUES AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE: 0 EFP CONTRACTS FOR APRIL, 0 EFP CONTRACTS FOR MAY (WE DO NOT GET A LOOK AT THESE CONTRACTS AS IT IS PRIVATE BUT THE CFTC DOES AUDIT THEM), AND 2033 EFP’S FOR JULY AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2033 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 929 CONTRACTS TO THE 2033 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S, WE OBTAIN A GAIN OF 1104 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 5.520 MILLION OZ!!! AND THIS OCCURRED WITH ONLY A 6 CENT RISE IN PRICE . THE BANKERS ORCHESTRATED THEIR RAID THROUGHOUT LAST WEEK DESPERATELY TRYING TO PARE THEIR GIGANTIC OPEN INTEREST SHORT ON BOTH EXCHANGES BUT TO NO AVAIL. JUDGING BY THE RECORD NUMBER OF EFP ISSUANCE DURING LAST MONTH OF APRIL AT 385.75 MILLION OZ AND THE TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES, I DO NOT THINK THAT OUR BANKERS HAVE BEEN TOO SUCCESSFUL. THE CONSTANT RAIDS ARE NOW BEING CALLED UPON BY OUR BANKER FRIENDS ARE DONE IN AN ATTEMPT TO SHAKE AS MANY SILVER LEAVES FROM THE SILVER TREE AS POSSIBLE.
RESULT: A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 6 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICING YESTERDAY. BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER STRONG SIZED 2033 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR APRIL, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.
(report Harvey)
.
2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report
(Harvey)
2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore
(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge
and in NY: Bloomberg
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
)THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed UP 15.26 points or 0 .48% /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 273.08 points or 0.89% / The Nikkei closed UP 88.30 POINTS OR .39% /Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .18% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.3503/Oil UP to 71.51 dollars per barrel for WTI and 77.38 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED/RED. ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AT 6.3438 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3503/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING MUCH STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE A FULL TRADE WAR IS BEGINNING/
/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
i)North Korea/South Korea/USA
Trump and Kim will meet in Singapore on June 12
(Fabian/the HILL)
b) REPORT ON JAPAN
3 c CHINA
South China Morning Post
Conglomerate Anbang’s ex chief Wu sentenced to 18 years behind bars for fraud and embezzlement
(courtesy South China Morning post)
4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
i)UK
The Bank of England leaves unchanged but with two voting in the negative. The pound plummets on the huge dovish inflation outlook
( zerohedge)
ii) Italy
The EU and ECB are not too happy with this development: both Euroskeptic parties will become the government after Berlusconi agreed not to partake in the government. These two parties love to spend and will no doubt break the 3% guideline putting it in direct confrontation with the EU. Remember that the Italy has a huge 360 billion euros of non performing loans on its books. Every Tom Dick and Harry are dumping Italian bonds with the only purchaser: the ECB
fun times again in Italy
( zerohedge)
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
last night: a major escalation as Israel retaliates against Iranian shelling out of Syria
(zerohedge)
( zerohedge)
( zerohedge)
a must read…
( Tom Luongo)
(courtesy zerohedge)
6 .GLOBAL ISSUES
Nomi Prins is one smart girl.
a great book/and great commentary
( NomiPrins)
7. OIL ISSUES
8. EMERGING MARKET
Venezuela
9. PHYSICAL MARKETS
10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver
ii)This morning’s data:
a)It seems that the Fed is not keeping the inflation it desires
( zerohedge)
b)This does not look good for Ford: it halts all production of its most profitable F series truck and lays off almost 8,000 staff
( zerohedge)
iv)SWAMP STORIES
Trading Volumes on the COMEX
PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY: 371,048 contracts
CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY: 430,929 contracts
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
And now for the wild silver comex results.
Total silver OI FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 929 CONTRACTS FROM 195,865 DOWN TO 194,936 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) DESPITE THE 6 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING. SINCE WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY. WE WERE INFORMED THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED 2033 EFP CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR JULY AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS. THESE EFPS WERE ISSUED TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 2033. ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 1104 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A 929 CONTRACT LOSS AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 2033 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON. DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE BOYS WERE VERY BUSY NEGOTIATING LONG COMEX CONTRACTS EMIGRATING TO LONDON,(AND WAITING FOR THEIR PASSPORTS)
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 1104 CONTRACTS
AMOUNT STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX
We are now in the active delivery month of MAY and here the front month LOST 5 contracts FALLING TO 448 contracts. We had 59 notices filed upon yesterday so we SURPRISINGLY AGAIN GAINED 54 contracts or 270,000 additional ounces will stand for delivery in this active delivery month of May AS SOMEBODY AGAIN WAS DESPERATE FOR PHYSICAL SILVER..
June saw a LOSS of 15 contracts to stand at 782 The next big delivery month for silver is July and here the OI FELL by 1709 contracts DOWN to 139,250. The next active delivery month after July for silver is September and here the OI ROSE by 575 contracts UP to 22,931
We had 146 notice(s) filed for 730,000 OZ for the MAY 2018 contract for silver
INITIAL standings for MAY/GOLD
MAY 10/2018.
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz |
21,735.675 OZ
Brinks
|
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz | NIL oz |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | 21,735.675 OZ
jpm |
| No of oz served (contracts) today |
165 notice(s)
16500 OZ
|
| No of oz to be served (notices) |
103 contracts
(10300 oz)
|
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month |
613 notices
61300 OZ
1.9066 TONNES
|
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | xxx oz |
For MAY:
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 165 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 120 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAY. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (613) x 100 oz or 61300 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY. (268 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (165 x 100 oz per contract) equals 71,600 oz, the number of ounces standing in this active month of APRIL (2.227 tonnes)
Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAY contract month:
No of notices served (613 x 100 oz) + {(268)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (165 x 100 oz )which equals 71,600 oz standing in this active delivery month of MAY . THERE ARE 9.954 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY SO FAR.
WE GAINED 6400 OZ OF GOLD (64 CONTRACTS) STANDING IN THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY AS SOMEBODY BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL GOLD AT THIS SIDE OF THE POND..
IN THE LAST 18 MONTHS 73 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.
end
And now for silver
AND NOW THE APRIL DELIVERY MONTH
MAY INITIAL standings/SILVER
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | nil oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory |
nil oz
|
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory |
614,504.400
oz
CNT
|
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory |
nil oz
|
| No of oz served today (contracts) |
146
CONTRACT(S)
(730,000 OZ)
|
| No of oz to be served (notices) |
302 contracts
(1,510,000 oz)
|
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 5664 contracts
(28,320,000 oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
we had 1 inventory movement at the dealer side of things
i) Into CNT: 614,504.400 oz
total dealer deposits: 614,504.400 oz
we had 0 deposits into the customer account
i) Into JPMorgan: nil oz
*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.
JPMorgan now has 140 million oz of total silver inventory or 53.4% of all official comex silver. (140 million/263 million)
JPMorgan did not deposit into its warehouses (official) today.
ii) Into everybody else: 0
total customer deposits today: 0 oz
we had 0 withdrawals from the customer account;
i
total withdrawals; nil oz
we had 0 adjustment
total dealer silver: 69.425 million
total dealer + customer silver: 268,647million oz
The total number of notices filed today for the MAY. contract month is represented by 146 contract(s) FOR 730,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 5664 x 5,000 oz = 28,320,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY. (646) and the number of notices served upon today (164 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
.
Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the MAY contract month: 5664(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAY(448) -number of notices served upon today (164)x 5000 oz equals 29,830,000 oz of silver standing for the MAY contract month
WE GAINED 54 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 270,000 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS SOMEBODY WAS IN URGENT NEED OF PHYSICAL SILVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 83612 CONTRACTS
CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 77960 CONTRACTS
YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 77960 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO 389 MILLION OZ OR 55.68% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER
COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
end
NPV for Sprott
1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -1.83% (MAY10/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -0.43% to NAV (MAY 10/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -1.83%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ territory at -0.43%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail but being rescued by Sprott.
Sprott WINS hostile 3.1 billion bid to take over Central Fund of Canada
(courtesy Sprott/GATA)
3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA): NAV FALLS TO -2.31%: NAV 13.71/TRADING 13.38//DISCOUNT 2.31.
END
And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/
MAY 10/WITH GOLD UP $9.60/A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.96 TONNES/SUCH CROOKS
MAY 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.55/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.13 TONNES
MAY 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.10/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.13 TONNES
MAY 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.55/ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.13 TONNES
MAY 4/WITH GOLD UP $2.05/A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.13 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.60 TONNES
MAY 3/WITH GOLD UP $7.05/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 866.77 TONNES
MAY 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.15/ A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.43 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 866.77 TONNES
MAY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.15/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.20 TONNES
APRIL 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.05/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.20 TONNES.
APRIL 27./WITH GOLD UP $5.90/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.20 TONNES/
APRIL 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.20 TONNES
APRIL 25/AFTER 9 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF NO MOVEMENT OF GOLD INTO OUT OF THE GLD, WE HAD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.31 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.20 TONNES.
APRIL 24./WITH GOLD UP $9.90, WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES/
APRIL 23.2018/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.00/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES.
APRIL 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.20: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES
APRIL 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.25: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES/
APRIL 18/WITH GOLD UP $3.65: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES
APRIL 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.00 NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES/
April 16/WITH GOLD UP$2.80/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES/
April 13/WITH GOLD UP $6.15, A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.90 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES
April 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $17.40/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.99 TONNES
April 11/WITH GOLD UP $13.85/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859,99 TONNES
APRIL 10/WITH GOLD UP $5.25/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.99 TONNES
APRIL 9/WITH GOLD UP$4.50/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.99 TONNES
APRIL 6/WITH GOLD UP $7.50 ,A HUGE CHANGE IN INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ A DEPOSIT OF 5.90 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.99 TONNES
APRIL 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.20 WE HAD TWO ENTRIES: 1) TINY WITHDRAWAL OF .28 TONNES TO PAY FOR FEES AND 2) A DEPOSIT OF 2.06 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.09 TONNES
April 4/WITH GOLD UP $2.90 WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.31 TONNES
APRIL 3./WITH GOLD DOWN $9.30 WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.31 TONNES
APRIL 2/WITH GOLD UP $19.50, WE HAD A BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 6.19 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.31 TONNES
MARCH 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.20 AND OPTIONS EXPIRY FINISHED, WE HAD NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS A 846.12 TONNES
March 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.70, ANOTHER RAID ORCHESTRATED, AGAIN NO SURPRISES AS WE WITNESS ANOTHER 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD REMOVED/INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.12 TONNES
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
MAY 10/2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 862.96tonnes
*IN LAST 380 TRADING DAYS: 78.04 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 330 TRADING DAYS: A NET 78,26 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO GLD INVENTORY.
end
Now the SLV Inventory/
MAY 10/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 323.263 MILLION OZ/
MAY 9/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 323.263 MILLION OZ/
MAY 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 323.263 MILLION OZ.
MAY 7/WITH SILVER FLAT: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 942,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 323.263 MILLION OZ/
MAY4/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS/A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A DEPOSIT OF 1.224 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.205 MILLION OZ/
MAY 2/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS/A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 6.082 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.981 MILLION OZ/
MAY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.899 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.899 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.899 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENT/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316,899 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 25./WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.899 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 24./WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS/SOMETHING SPOOKED OUR CROOKS TO ADD SOME PAPER SILVER: A DEPOSIT OF 1.601 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.899 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 23.2018/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS, ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL FROM THE SLV INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.413 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.298 MILLION OZ.
APRIL 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.13 MILLION OZ//SLV RESTS TONIGHT AT 316.711 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 19/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: WE HAD A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.355 MILLION OZ/ MAKES ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE!!/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.841 MILLION OZ
APRIL 18/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ
APRIL 17/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ
April 16/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/
April 13/WITH SILVER UP 17 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ.
April 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/
April 11/2018/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 10/WITH GOLD UP 8 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 9/WITH SILVER UP 12 CENTS/WE HAD NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 6/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS, WE HAD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.319 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ
APRIL 5/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.877 MILLION OZ/
April 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS/A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A WITHRAWAL OF 135,000 OZ AND THIS IS PROBABLY TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.877 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 3./WITH SILVER DOWN 16 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 2/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ/
MARCH 29/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS, THE CROOKS DECIDED THAT THEY HAD BETTER ADD SOME 943,000 PAPER OZ TO THEIR INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.012 MILLION OZ
March 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS/AGAIN NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.069 MILLION OZ
MAY 10/2018:
Inventory 323.263 million oz
end
6 Month MM GOFO 2.07/ and libor 6 month duration 2.52
Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:
G0FO+ 2.08%
libor 2.52 FOR 6 MONTHS/
GOLD LENDING RATE: .45%
XXXXXXXX
12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.77%
LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.54
GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE
GOLD LENDING RATE = +.23
end
Major gold/silver trading /commentaries for THURSDAY
GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.
GOLD/SILVER
Iran’s Gold Demand May Surge On Trump Sanctions
by Claudia Carpenter, Bloomberg
Iran’s gold demand will probably be “strong” for the next few months and then gradually decline as U.S. sanctions start to take effect, according to the researcher who covers the country for Metals Focus Ltd.
After a previous set of sanctions was imposed on Iran in 2012, it took two years for the country’s gold demand to start falling, according to data from the World Gold Council. It sank to only 45.1 tons by 2016, the lowest in at least six years and 65 percent lower than in 2013, according to gold council data. It rose to 64.5 tons last year.
“What’s going to happen initially, people will try to convert whatever they have into dollars or gold or whatever is of value that’s not going to depreciate,” Cagdas Kucukemiroglu, an analyst at London-based Metals Focus, said Wednesday by phone. “Then next year the demand will gradually start to go down but it’s not going to be drastic. The base is already very low.”
U.S. sanctions on Iran’s gold trade will be re-imposed after 90 days, according to the U.S. Department of the Treasury. President Donald Trump said Tuesday that the U.S. will withdraw from a landmark accord to curb Iran’s nuclear program and that he would re-instate financial restrictions on the country. The U.S. will be instituting the “highest level” of sanctions against Iran, Trump said.
What’s different this time for Iran’s gold demand is the weakening local currency rial, according to Kucukemiroglu, who supplies quarterly gold demand data for the Middle East to the producer-funded World Gold Council. The nation’s gold coin and bar demand more than tripled in the first quarter when the rial hit several record lows against the U.S. dollar.
Gold traders in Turkey may also be reluctant to supply metal to Iran because of a U.S. sanctions case against a Turkish banker involving gold, he said. The banker was convicted earlier this year of helping Iran evade U.S. financial sanctions. Iran mostly gets it gold from Turkey and the United Arab Emirates.
A weak rial and slowing economic growth may even cause Iranians to start selling their gold, Kucukemiroglu said. “If sanctions stay, the economy will get poorer. Gold is a good way to get cash when you need it.”
Source: Bloomberg
Listen on SoundCloud , Blubrry & iTunes. Watch on YouTube
News and Commentary
Iran’s Gold Demand Set for Spurt Before Trump Sanctions Bite (Bloomberg.com)
Dollar Drops as Treasuries Climb; Oil Extends Gain: Markets Wrap (Bloomberg.com)
Gold edges down on firm dollar, US bond yields (Reuters.com)
Gold recovers a major part of early losses to 200-DMA support (FXStreet.com)
Oil soars after Trump nixes Iran nuclear deal, stocks rally (Reuters.com)
Month of May Has Been a Great Time to Buy Gold (Goldseek.com)
Is the Supply of Gold Depleting? (GoldTelegraph.com)
Gold Mining Supply Is Collapsing (TheDailyCoin.com)
Gold Prices (LBMA AM)
09 May: USD 1,306.85, GBP 965.11 & EUR 1,102.07 per ounce
08 May: USD 1,310.05, GBP 969.44 & EUR 1,101.88 per ounce
04 May: USD 1,309.35, GBP 965.78 & EUR 1,094.09 per ounce
03 May: USD 1,313.30, GBP 966.19 & EUR 1,094.64 per ounce
02 May: USD 1,310.75, GBP 960.52 & EUR 1,091.99 per ounce
01 May: USD 1,309.20, GBP 956.37 & EUR 1,087.68 per ounce
30 Apr: USD 1,316.25, GBP 958.62 & EUR 1,087.62 per ounce
Silver Prices (LBMA)
09 May: USD 16.44, GBP 12.12 & EUR 13.84 per ounce
08 May: USD 16.45, GBP 12.17 & EUR 13.85 per ounce
04 May: USD 16.42, GBP 12.10 & EUR 13.72 per ounce
03 May: USD 16.47, GBP 12.12 & EUR 13.74 per ounce
02 May: USD 16.35, GBP 11.98 & EUR 13.62 per ounce
01 May: USD 16.25, GBP 11.87 & EUR 13.51 per ounce
30 Apr: USD 16.38, GBP 11.93 & EUR 13.54 per ounce
Recent Market Updates
– “Money Is Gold — and Nothing Else”
– U.K. Home Prices Plunge 3.1% In April – Largest Monthly Drop Since Financial Crisis In 2011
– Weekly Gold Update – Gold In Dollars Lower Despite Poor US Jobs and Other Data
– Own Some Gold and Avoid Overvalued Assets
– Gold Demand Falls In Q1 Despite Robust Central Bank and Investment Demand and Surging Demand In Turkey and Iran
– Smart Money Diversifying Into Gold – One Billionaire Invests Half His Net Worth
– “Blood In The Streets” Of U.S. Gold Bullion Market As Sale Of Gold Coins Collapse
– Most Important Chart Of The Century For Investors?
– Gold Mining Shares Are Speculative Making Gold Bullion A Better Investment
– Gold Price Increasingly Influenced By Declining Dollar Rather Than Interest Rates
– Cash “Vanishes” From Bank Accounts In Ireland
– Russia Buys 300,000 Ounces Of Gold In March – Nears 2,000 Tons In Gold Reserves
– Family Offices and HNWs Invest In Gold Again
Andrew Maguire’s Kinesis money which is a “bitcoin” but backed 100% by allocated gold and silver is set to go.
it think it would be a great idea to look at this!
please read at: https://kinesis.money/#/
(Andrew Maguire)
|
2:57 PM (1 hour ago) | ||
|
|||
Harvey
Here It is my friend! https://kinesis.money/#/ Please let everyone know.
Let catch up on Monday if you have time. We have billions in the hopper ready to be allocated on the 1st day of trading. The paper market days are over.
Warm regards
Andy
Chinese Gold Demand Off To A Hot Start In 2018
Gold was up half a percent year-to-date through last Friday.
This doesn’t sound very exciting, but over the same period, the S&P 500 Index was in the red – the first time in nearly a decade that stocks have been negative for the year through the beginning of May. The yellow metal is doing the one thing for which many investors have it in their portfolio – namely, it’s trading inversely to the market. This highlights its longstanding role as an attractive diversifier and store of value.
Gold has been under pressure from a strengthening U.S. dollar, and May has historically delivered lower prices. As I’ve pointed out before, this makes it an ideal entry point in anticipation of a late summer rally before Diwali and the Indian wedding season, during which gifts of gold jewelry are considered auspicious. Demand in China for the remainder of the year also looks promising.
India Gold Demand Weakened, but a Healthy Monsoon Could Help Reverse That
India’s demand for gold jewelry in the first quarter was down 12 percent from the same period last year, according to the latest report from the World Gold Council (WGC). Consumption fell to 87.7 metric tons, compared to 99.2 tons in the first three months of 2017. Contributing to this weakness was the fact that there were fewer auspicious days in the first quarter than in the same period of the past three years, according to the WGC.
However, this followed a monumental fourth quarter 2017, when gold demand in the world’s second-largest consumer was 189.6 metric tons – an all-time record – so a decline was expected.
Looking ahead, it’s estimated that India will have a “normal” monsoon season this summer. This is good news for gold’s Love Trade. A third of India’s gold demand comes from rural farmers, whose crop revenues depend on the rains from a healthy monsoon. When the subcontinent experiences a drought, as it did in 2014 and 2015, gold consumption suffers.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) reports that its forecasts suggest “maximum probability for normal monsoon rainfall” and “low probability for deficient rainfall during the season.”
Chinese Bullion Demand Off to a Good Start in 2018
In China, the world’s largest importer of gold, jewelry demand rose 7 percent in the first quarter to 187.7 metric tons, a three-year high. According to the WGC, Chinese retailers are working on improving the customer experience, providing consumers with “a more holistic retail solution.” The industry is expecting a strong 2018 after a relatively subdued 2017.
Except for a weak February, demand so far this year has been particularly strong, with monthly withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) above the two-year average of 170 metric tons. April represented the third straight month of rising demand. Withdrawals were 28 percent higher than in the same month in 2017, according to veteran precious metals commentator Lawrie Williams.
Williams writes that fears of a potential trade war with the U.S. could be driving Chinese investors into safe haven assets, including gold bars and coins. Indeed, the WGC reports that bullion demand in the first quarter finished at 78 metric tons, above the three- and five-year averages.
I believe this all bodes well for the Love Trade going forward, meaning it might be an opportune time for investors to consider increasing their exposure to gold and gold mining stocks. As always, I recommend a 10 percent weighting, with 5 percent in bars, coins and jewelry, and 5 percent in high-quality gold stocks, mutual funds and ETFs.
end
Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results, important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST
i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP 6.3503 /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 15.26 POINTS OR 0 .48% / HANG SANG CLOSED UP 273.08 POINTS OR 0.89%
2. Nikkei closed UP 88.30 POINTS OR .39% / /USA: YEN FALLS TO 109.65/
3. Europe stocks OPENED MIXED/RED /USA dollar index FALLS TO 92.91/Euro RISES TO 1.1884
3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO . +.05/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 109.65/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD FINALLY IN THE POSITIVE/BANK OF JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR YIELD CURVE AS THEY PURCHASE ALL BONDS TO GET TO ZERO RATE!!
3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning
3e WTI:: 71.51 and Brent: 77.38
3f Gold UP/Yen UP
3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.
3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.57%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 1.85% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 1.29%
3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 4.11?????????????????
3k Gold at $1317.82 silver at:16.463 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50
3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 107/100 in roubles/dollar) 62.00
3m oil into the 71 dollar handle for WTI and 77 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.65 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 1.0023 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1914 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017
3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to +0.54%
The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.
4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.97% early this morning (THIS IS DEADLY TO ALL MARKETS). Thirty year rate at 3.14%
5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.
(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)
Futures Flat After Barrage Of Overnight News; CPI Looms
US futures are flat, and European stocks are little changed after their longest winning streak since mid-March following a barrage of overnight news, including a dramatic escalation in fighting between Israel and Syria/Iran, a shocking election victory in Malaysia where opposition leader Mahathir Mohamad ended the six-decade rule of Najib Razak’s party sending more shock waves among emerging markets, and the blessing by Bersluconi of a new, anti-establishment, populist government in Italy.
The busy news agenda offers no respite to investors this week, with tension between Israel and Iran mounting just days after U.S. President Donald Trump roiled the international community with his decision to ditch a nuclear accord with the Islamic Republic. Meanwhile, the stage is set for a populist government to form in Italy, and traders are rapidly coming to terms with an election upset in Malaysia. Many will now be looking to American inflation data as a welcome diversion.
Meanwhile, it is Ascension Day holiday across several European countrie, leading to even poorer volumes, while the biggest economic catalyst of the week looms in the face of today’s US CPI print due in under 2 hours.
While the latest burst higher in US equities may have taken a breather, overnight Asian shares advanced, largely tracking oil as WTI crude rose to the highest since 2014, topping $71 on rising middle-eastern geopolitical fears. Having breached 3% for the second time in 2 week, 10Y Treasury yields, which have been driving up the greenback and exacting pain on emerging markets, dipped back under 3% to push the dollar toward its first drop in five days.
Europe’s Stoxx Europe 600 Index drifted lower on what is a public holiday in various parts of the region, with markets closed in countries including Switzerland, Sweden, and Austria. The main risk overnight was that Italy’s 5 Star and League have made significant steps to form a government, and expect to finalize everything in a short time. Looking at Brexit, EU officials suggest that the EU is looking to find a way forward to maintain trade between the UK and EU post-Brexit despite having reservations about PM May’s current plans.
Earlier, the MSCI Asia Index rose 0.5%, thanks to broad-based gains in stocks around the region. The Shanghai Comp. (+0.5%) and Hang Seng (+0.9%) shrugged off another liquidity drain by the PBoC to trade positive in which Hong Kong resumed its recent trend of outshining its regional peers, while participants also digested mixed Chinese inflation figures that showed CPI missed estimates at 1.8% vs. Exp. 1.9% although PPI growth gathered pace for the 1st time in 7-months to 3.4% as expected
- Chinese CPI (Apr) Y/Y 1.8% vs. Exp. 1.9% (Prev. 2.1%).
- Chinese PPI (Apr) Y/Y 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.1%)
The big story out of Asia was the shocking outcome of the Malaysian elections, where opposition leader Mahathir Mohamad’s surprise victory ended the six-decade rule of Najib Razak’s party and has investors bracing for further jolts across the EM space. While Malaysian markets were closed, trading in non-deliverable forwards suggested the ringgit will tumble Monday in the wake of the surprise ouster of the country’s ruling party. The 2045-maturity dollar bond also declined. The dip in the dollar, however, stabilized developing markets which signaled stability after days of losses, and the MSCI Emerging Market Index rallied for a fourth day.
Elsewhere in FX, the dollar fell alongside Treasury yields ahead of U.S. CPI data and an auction of 30-year debt on Thursday. The pound edged up ahead of the Bank of England policy decision, while the New Zealand dollar slipped to a five-month low after its central bank left the door open for a possible cut. The Bloomberg Dollar spot index fell for the first time in five days as the dollar slid against most of its G-10 peers, with the biggest gains seen in the Canadian dollar; benchmark Treasury yields slipped below the 3 percent level
“We find the reasons of the rally temporary in nature and by looking at past experience from dollar-depreciation cycles, we conclude that, as long as global growth holds up well, then the greenback should resume weakening on a multi-quarter basis,” according to Vasileios Gkionakis, head of currency strategy research at UniCredit Bank
Elsewhere, looking at today’s BOE decision, “what matters for the pound is whether Governor Carney is a man with or without conviction over future rate hikes,” according to ING Groep NV’s currency strategist Viraj Patel. A 7-2 split, Patel’s base-case scenario, would see sterling climb toward $1.36.
In geopolitics, the White House commented that the US is preparing to add additional sanctions on Iran as soon as next week. Overnight, the main event was the Israel Defense Forces conducting operations on Iran targets in Syria overnight.
Elsewhere, Deputy head of Iran’s revolutionary guards Salami said Europe cannot confront the US in the nuclear accord, adds diplomacy cannot help Iran, the only way is confrontation.
In commodities, energy prices are currently coming off overnight highs in which crude prices extended on the advances as traders adjust to supply disruption concerns in the wake of the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear agreement. Following this withdrawal, Israeli military have increased the number of strikes targeted at dozens of Iranian facilities in retaliation to an Iranian rocket attack on the occupied Golan Heights, signalling a continued escalation of geopolitical tensions in the region. Yesterday’s DOE printed a larger than expected drawdown, providing some support to the complex. WTI (+0.7%) and Brent (+0.6%) crude prices are firmly above the USD 71.00/bbl and USD 77.00/bbl respectively. UBS expects Brent to trade at USD 80/bbl in 6 months (prior forecast at USD 65/bbl) and WTI to trade at a USD 5/bbl discount to Brent (prior USD 4/bbl discount). Elsewhere, gold prices are trading flat amid a slight easing of the greenback, while London copper saw modest gains on the back of lower inventories.
Economic data on Thursday include initial jobless claims and CPI. Nvidia, Telus and News Corp. are among companies due to release results
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2,701.00
- STOXX Europe 600 down 0.04% to 392.29
- MXAP up 0.5% to 173.78
- MXAPJ up 0.7% to 568.54
- Nikkei up 0.4% to 22,497.18
- Topix up 0.3% to 1,777.62
- Hang Seng Index up 0.9% to 30,809.22
- Shanghai Composite up 0.5% to 3,174.41
- Sensex up 0.05% to 35,335.91
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 6,118.75
- Kospi up 0.8% to 2,464.16
- German 10Y yield rose 0.2 bps to 0.561%
- Euro up 0.2% to $1.1871
- Italian 10Y yield rose 1.6 bps to 1.626%
- Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.4 bps to 1.308%
- Brent Futures up 0.6% to $77.69/bbl
- Gold spot up 0.03% to $1,313.11
- U.S. Dollar Index down 0.06% to 92.99
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
- Trump personally welcomed home three Americans released from detention in North Korea, as he prepares for a landmark summit with Kim Jong Un
- Israel said it’s carrying out attacks inside Syria after Iranian forces based in that country fired a barrage of missiles at the Golan Heights
- Italian bonds slid after four-times premier Silvio Berlusconi dropped his opposition to a tie-up, giving the chances of a populist government ruling Italy a sizable boost
- Oil extended gains above $71 a barrel as a conflict between Israel and Iran ratcheted up, increasing prospects for tighter global supply after the U.S. renewed sanctions on OPEC’s third-largest producer
- With corporate-debt defaults on the rise, China’s securities regulator will probe bond funds to ensure that they have proper risk controls in place, according to people familiar with the matter
- Japanese investors sold U.S. sovereign bonds for a sixth month in March, while they added to holdings of French and German debt, according to the Ministry of Finance’s balance- of-payments data released Thursday
- Mahathir Mohamad’s surprise victory in Malaysia’s election ended the six-decade rule of Najib Razak’s party and has investors are bracing for further jolts as this news comes at a time when emerging markets are already under attack globally
- While money markets are betting officials will stay on hold this month, investors will look for any split among Bank of England’s MPC members to determine the chances of a rate increase this year
- Oil extended gains above $71 a barrel on the risk of supply disruptions as a conflict between Israel and Iran ratcheted up
Asian stocks traded positive across the board following the energy-fuelled upside on Wall St, where oil names outperformed as crude gained in the wake of Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear agreement and DoEs. As such, ASX 200 (+0.2%) was led by the energy sector as oil edged fresh multi-year highs last seen in 2014 and with RBOB also at its best levels since mid-2015, while Nikkei 225 (+0.4%) was also marginally higher amid earnings and with Mitsubishi Motors shares outpacing the broader market after it beat on its FY net and guided sales higher. Shanghai Comp. (+0.5%) and Hang Seng (+0.9%) shrugged off another liquidity drain by the PBoC to trade positive in which Hong Kong resumed its recent trend of outshining its regional peers, while participants also digested mixed Chinese inflation figures that showed CPI missed estimates at 1.8% vs. Exp. 1.9% although PPI growth gathered pace for the 1st time in 7-months to 3.4% as expected. Finally, 10yr JGBs were flat with demand lacking amid gains in riskier assets while a 10yr inflation-indexed auction was also largely ignored and failed to spur price action.
Top Asian News
- Mahathir Set to Become Malaysian Prime Minister After Shock Win
- Li Ka-shing to Retire Today, Ending Storied Career of Top Tycoon
- Bank of China, JD.com to Promote Cooperation on Fintech
- Malaysia’s 1MDB Spurs Voter Backlash, Global Probes: QuickTake
- Philippines Raises Benchmark Rate as Inflation Battle Heats Up
European equites trading mostly lower (Eurostoxx 50 -0.4%) ahead of the BoE rate decision, with the energy and telecoms sectors underperforming (-1.1% and -1.3% respectively). This resulting from Randgold Resources and BT’s (-8.2% and -9.0% respectively) uninspiring earnings, as well as BT’s announcement of job cuts. Financials are lower by 0.3% while RBS’s (+4.3%) lower than expected pay-out on MBS sales during the financial crisis, and UniCredit’s (+0.9%) positive financial results. Italy’s FTSE MIB is underperforming on the recent Italian political developments. In stock specific news Next (+6.2%) raised guidance on warm weather boosting sales, and Alstom (+0.9%) announced a USD 3bln agreement with GE to exit multiple energy joint ventures.
Top European News
- Italian Production Rises in Positive Sign for Economic Output
- U.K. Construction Slumped in March as Snow Stalled Projects
- RBS Clears Path to Award Dividends After $4.9 Billion DOJ Deal
- UniCredit Pushes on Costs, Asset Quality to Affirm Leadership
- ITV’s Online Ad Sales and Production Boost McCall as TV Weakens
In FX, DXY is Losing a bit more impetus below 93.000 and looking for some support from US CPI data amidst expectations for firmer headline and core prints, but softer leads via PPI in the run up. NZD/AUD: A very dovish hold from the RBNZ last night has hit the Kiwi hard, as the Central Bank signalled an even more prolonged period of unchanged policy and 50-50 odds that the next move in the OCR could be up or down. Nzd/Usd subsequently dived from a recovery high not far from 0.7000 to within a few pips of 0.6900, while the Aud/Nzd cross catapulted to just over 1.0800 from circa 1.0700 and lower in recent sessions. Conversely and consequently, Aud/Usd has continued its rebound from near 0.7400 lows towards 0.7500, but could be capped by mega option expiry interest at the big figure spread over the next few days (5 bn in total from today to May 16). CAD: The Loonie continues to outperform G10 counterparts and climb alongside oil prices that have extended to the upside on the US-Iran nuclear deal breakdown and with draws in US crude inventories adding to supply concerns. Usd/Cad is now bids/support around 1.2775 vs peaks earlier in the week just over 1.3000 and may derive further direction from Canadian new house price data later (although the US inflation data is likely to be more influential for the pair).
In commodities, energy prices are currently coming off overnight highs in which crude prices extended on the advances as traders adjust to supply disruption concerns in the wake of the US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear agreement. Following this withdrawal, Israeli military have increased the number of strikes targeted at dozens of Iranian facilities in retaliation to an Iranian rocket attack on the occupied Golan Heights, signalling a continued escalation of geopolitical tensions in the region. Yesterday’s DOE printed a larger than expected drawdown, providing some support to the complex. WTI (+0.7%) and Brent (+0.6%) crude prices are firmly above the USD 71.00/bbl and USD 77.00/bbl respectively. UBS expects Brent to trade at USD 80/bbl in 6 months (prior forecast at USD 65/bbl) and WTI to trade at a USD 5/bbl discount to Brent (prior USD 4/bbl discount). Elsewhere, gold prices are trading flat amid a slight easing of the greenback, while London copper saw modest gains on the back of lower inventories.
US Event Calendar
- 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 219,000, prior 211,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.8m, prior 1.76m
- 8:30am: US CPI MoM, est. 0.3%, prior -0.1%
- US CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
- US CPI YoY, est. 2.5%, prior 2.4%
- US CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 2.2%, prior 2.1%
- US CPI Index NSA, est. 250.7, prior 249.6
- US CPI Core Index SA, prior 256.2
- Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY, prior 0.94%; Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY, prior 0.4%
- 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, prior 56.5
- 2pm: Monthly Budget Statement, est. $212.0b, prior $208.7b deficit
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed UP 15.26 points or 0 .48% /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 273.08 points or 0.89% / The Nikkei closed UP 88.30 POINTS OR .39% /Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .18% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.3503/Oil UP to 71.51 dollars per barrel for WTI and 77.38 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED MIXED/RED. ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AT 6.3438 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3503/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING MUCH STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE A FULL TRADE WAR IS BEGINNING/
3 a NORTH KOREA/USA
North Korea/South Korea/usa
Trump and Kim will meet in Singapore on June 12
(Fabian/the HILL)
Trump says he will meet Kim on June 12 in Singapore
END.
3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS
end
c) REPORT ON CHINA/HONG KONG
South China Morning Post
Conglomerate Anbang’s ex chief Wu sentenced to 18 years behind bars for fraud and embezzlement
(courtesy South China Morning post)
Anbang’s ex-chief Wu Xiaohui sentenced to 18 years behind bars for US$12 billion fraud, embezzlement
Prison term completes the downfall of one of China’s most famous tycoons and closes another chapter in Beijing’s crackdown on high-level fraud and corruption
He will also have assets worth 10.5 billion yuan (US$1.65 billion) confiscated, Xinhua, China’s official state news agency, reported on Thursday.
Wu, who was once at the helm of one of China’s most aggressive asset buyers, was put on trial in the No.1 Intermediate People’s Court in Shanghai in late March, charged with illegal fundraising, fraud worth 65.2 billion yuan (US$10.24 billion) and embezzling 10 billion yuan from Anbang’s insurance premium income.
Anbang, founded in 2004, has grown from a seller of car insurance into one of China’s largest insurance providers, holding nearly 2 trillion yuan in assets. The Beijing-based insurer was known for an aggressive global buying spree in recent years, which included the acquisition of the New York’s Waldorf Astoria hotel in 2014 for almost US$2 billion.
Prosecutors in the case said Wu had severely harmed “the safety of investors’ capital” and “crushed national financial security”.
The top banking and insurance regulator said in April that it will inject 60.8 billion yuan into the beleaguered insurer to ensure its solvency.
The Chinese government seized control of the company in February.
Thursday’s sentencing closes a key chapter in a series of investigations into several of China’s biggest overseas asset buyers – known in China as “crocodiles” – since June 2017, in a government programme to pare back leveraged buyouts and rein in financial malfeasance.
It also completes the spectacular fall from grace of a man who once seemed to have it all.
Partnered with the son of a marshal who had helped found Communist China, married to the granddaughter of the country’s former paramount leader, and backed by China’s most powerful state firms and the industry’s top regulator, Wu was once the country’s most feted business tycoon. He was famous for his hard-handed business manner, his single-minded will to get ahead and willingness to confront anyone who got in his way.
Born into an ordinary family in a village in east China’s Zhejiang province in 1966, Wu started from scratch and eventually built a business empire holding 1.97 trillion yuan (US$310.9 billion) in assets and ranked 139th on the 2017 Global Fortune 500 list.
Backed by enormous capital power, he led his company on a wide-ranging global shopping spree, snapping up property landmarks like the Waldorf Astoria hotel in New York, and mounting a takeover battle against the Marriott Group with a US$14 billion bid to buy Starwood Hotels.
Iconic Waldorf Astoria hotel is part of China’s US property fire sale – but don’t expect a bargain
Between 2012 and 2016, Anbang WAS involved in 14 acquisitions valued at US$25.22 billion.
Wu also talked with US President Donald Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, about buying into a skyscraper project in Manhattan in 2016.
But the fame and fortune he built over decades came crashing down with remarkable speed.
On March 28, clad in a dark blue suit, the 52-year-old showed up to a court in Shanghai. Weeping in front of the China Central Television camera, the disgraced tycoon said he “regretted his mistakes”, and begged for a lenient sentence.
By that time Wu had seen Anbang Group taken over by the authorities, while he himself faced charges of fraud and embezzlement that could have put him in prison for life.
His rise was closely tied to what were once some of the biggest names in China’s political circles. His fall also tracked the decline of those once-celebrated families, and the reshuffle of the country’s ruling elite.
“Wu is smart and hardworking. But he tended to forget about his identity of late. He forgot he was the senior manager chosen by a powerful group to make money, and mistook himself as the power itself. That’s what caused this tragedy,” said a long-time business partner of Wu and Anbang, who asked to remain anonymous.
Wu’s early life has left few traces. Sources said he started out as a civil servant in his hometown in the early 1990s, but left for a business career a few years later.
Sino-Ocean first to swoop on Anbang assets since state takeover
By the early 2000s when he met Deng Zhuorui, granddaughter of former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping, he was already a successful car salesman and into his second marriage.
It was his then business partner Chen Xiaolu, a son of marshal Chen Yi, a member of China’s first communist ruling generation, who introduced him to Deng.
The marriage was kept extremely low key, so that few people even knew when the wedding took place.
Even the man who had brought the two together in the first place “was not invited to their wedding and did not know of their marriage beforehand”, a personal friend close to Chen said.
When Chen asked Wu why he had not been told about the marriage, Wu said he had felt “ashamed” because he was a married man when he first met Deng.
Chinese media outlets Caixin and Southern Weekly reported that the marriage took place in 2004, after Wu had divorced his second wife, herself the relative of a Hangzhou mayor.
Anbang Group filed a statement in early 2017 denying Caixin’s report on Wu’s marital status, describing it as defamatory.
True or not, the year 2004 was certainly an important milestone in Wu’s business career. It saw the founding of a company called Anbang Property Insurance in Zhejiang province by seven shareholders including state-owned SAIC Motor, which took up a 20 per cent controlling stake.
Murky waters surrounding Wu Xiaohui and Anbang
The second biggest shareholder, holding 18 per cent, was Shanghai Standard Infrastructure Group, a subsidiary of a company registered as 40 per cent owned by Chen and 60 per cent by Deng.
A year later, another state-owned giant, Sinopec, bought up 20 per cent of Anbang Property Insurance for 340 million yuan, becoming the joint-biggest shareholder with SAIC.
Sinopec’s chairman at the time, Chen Tonghai, was sentenced to death in 2009 in what was believed to be the country’s biggest bribery case but was later granted a reprieve.
The fall of Chen did not bother Wu, or indeed Anbang.
By the time Anbang Property Insurance was restructured into Anbang Group in 2011, the firm was a financial conglomerate on the ascent, already strong enough to acquire a commercial bank in Chengdu for 5.6 billion yuan, and to see off China’s best-connected property developers when competing for land in Beijing’s Central Business District (CBD).
Conflicts erupted from time to time, particularly when other powerful business magnates were involved. But more often than not, Wu emerged as the victorious party.
A consortium that included China International Capital Corporation (CICC) won a bid for a land plot for 2.5 billion yuan in 2010, but was then not allowed to start developing the site. Late last year a source involved in the case told the Post that was because Anbang would not submit the land plot back to Beijing’s municipal government after first-stage development.
CICC is China’s most powerful investment bank, once headed by Levin Zhu, the son of former premier Zhu Rongji.
“We have been in dispute with Anbang for about seven years regarding handing over a land plot in CBD. They would just ignore requests to fulfil legal procedures, not only from us, but also from the Beijing municipal government,” said a source familiar with the dispute.
“There is simply no way to argue with Wu. He shies away from us, claiming to be busy, while the government seems to have no binding power over him.”
According to the prosecutor in Wu’s trial, he had increased his control of the company through three major capital injections in 2011 and 2014, ending up owning 98.2 per cent of Anbang Group.
In the process, Anbang’s registered capital swelled from 5.1 billion yuan to 61.9 billion yuan, giving it the capacity to issue more aggressive insurance policies and carry out more mergers and acquisitions.
However, the prosecutors said capital injection worth around 50 billion yuan had come from insurance premiums, which is against rules set by the China Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC).
The growth of Anbang’s income from insurance premiums became the stuff of legend in the industry. The group’s flagship Anbang Life Insurance unit, for instance, more than quadrupled its premiums income to 40.5 billion yuan in 2014. The premium income of the group as a whole surged by almost 39 times to 52.9 billion yuan in the year to 2014, thrashing all competitors.
The strong backing of then CIRC chairman Xiang Junbo played a key role, industry insiders say.
More than 96 per cent of the premiums income under Anbang Life came from banking channels between 2012 and 2014, compared to an industry average of less than 40 per cent, according to a report issued by state-owned Dagong Global Credit Rating.
Xiang was placed under a corruption probe in April 2017, and expelled from the Communist Party in September. A preliminary investigation found he had abused the power to supervise and approve, according to the party’s anti-graft watchdog.
“It is easy to hold a corrupted official accountable for wrongdoings. But if the problem with Xiang himself could lead to such big financial risks, it is more important to review the whole regulatory system, otherwise it would not solve the problem thoroughly,” said Professor Sun Wujun from the Nanjing University Business School.
“In the past decade, as financial innovation flourished amid ample liquidity, regulators failed to catch up and see through risks hidden by complicated structuring of financial products and heavy cross-investment. It is a key area that Beijing is pursuing and has been tightening,” he added.
4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
UK
The Bank of England leaves unchanged but with two voting in the negative. The pound plummets on the huge dovish inflation outlook
(courtesy zerohedge)
BOE Keeps Rates Unchanged In 7-2 Vote; Cable Plunges On Dovish Inflation Outlook
As was widely anticipated following the recent disappointing economic data out of the UK, the Bank of England announced it kept rates unchanged at 0.5% in a 7-2 vote, with Saunders and McCafferty dissenting (some more hawkish commentators were hoping for a 6-3 split).
Bank of England
✔@bankofengland
We have kept interest rates at 0.5%. Find out more at: https://b-o-e.uk/2IpQapv #InflationReport
As also expected, the BOE Committee also voted unanimously to keep its various QE programs unchanged.
However, the reason for the sharp kneejerk reaction lower in cable, which plunged as much as 100 pips on the report, was the sharp dovish language on inflation, with the key sentence the following: “Taking external and domestic influences together, CPI inflation is projected to fall back slightly more quickly than in February, reaching the target in two years.”
“The inflation rates of the most import-intensive components of the CPI appear to have peaked. The MPC judges that the impact of the past depreciation of sterling on CPI inflation, while remaining significant, is likely to fade a little faster than previously thought. Taking external and domestic influences together, CPI inflation is projected to fall back slightly more quickly than in February, reaching the target in two years. These projections are conditioned on a gently rising path for Bank Rate over the next three years.”
The BOE also trimmed its economic outlook: BOE’s growth and inflation outlooks. The preliminary estimate of GDP growth in the first quarter was 0.1%, 0.3 percentage points lower than expected in February. According to the BOE, This is likely in part to have reflected adverse weather in late February and early March.” However, the Committee also believes that the slowing in Q1 GDP growth has been overstated in the prelim release and believe that over time Q1 will be revised higher to 0.3% and thereafter look for 0.4% in Q2.
Of greater importance was the BOE’s view on Inflation, which is now seen as cooling faster than previously expected: the 2.5% CPI in March was lower than expected in the Feb QIR. Inflation rates of the most import-intensive components of CPI appear to have peaked. Impact of GBP depreciation while remains significant, is likely to fade a little faster than previously thought. CPI target is expected to be met in two years.
Other key observations:
- Rates: No mention of the historical guidance of: rates will need to rise at a somewhat faster pace and greater extent than markets are currently pricing in. Reiterated that any future rate increases were likely to be at a gradual pace and to a limited extent.
- Brexit: Minutes offer no new view by the MPC on the matter
- Wages: Wage growth are firming gradually and broadly as expected.
- Labour market: Hiring intentions remain strong and the unemployment rate has fallen slightly further over the past 3 months.
- Slack: MPC continues to judge that the UK economy has a limited degree of slack
- Case for unchanged: Members saw value in seeing how data unfolded in the coming months and to see whether softness in Q1 would persist.
- Case for lifting rates: Saw Q1 GDP as erratic and due to temp factors. Placed more weight on labour data and business surveys. Reduction in pass-through of GBP on inflation would not materially impact the inflation profile in the medium term.
Separately, looking at the Quarterly Inflation Report, the BoE forecasts three rate hikes over three years. As such the UK rates markets is pricing in a more dovish path of BoE hikes.
report, while the 2018 GDP forecast was cut (2019 and 2020 maintained), the 2018, 2019, 2020 inflation all lowered. Key forecasts:
- GDP Growth: 2018 Q2: 1.4% (Prev.1.8 %), 2019 Q2: 1.7% (Prev. 1.7%), 2020 Q2: 1.7% (Prev. 1.7%), 2021 Q2: 1.7%
- CPI Inflation: 2018 Q2: 2.4% (Prev. 2.7%), 2019 Q2: 2.1% (Prev. 2.2%), 2020 Q2: 2.0% (Prev. 2.1%), 2021 Q2: 2.0%
- Unemployment Rate: 2018 Q2: 4.1% (Prev. 4.2%), 2019 Q2: 4.0% (Prev. 4.2%), 2020 Q2 4.0% (Prev. 4.1%), 2021 Q2: 4.0%
- Average Weekly Earnings: 2018: 2.75% (Prev. 3.0%), 2019: 3.25% (Prev. 3.25%), 2020: 3.5% (Prev. 3.5%)
- Above forecasts are based on the path for the Bank Rate implied by forward market interest rates. The implied Bank Rate at the time of the report by the end of the forecast period was 1.2%
In summary, while the BOE is certainly not ending its tightening yet, it is hardly in a rush to hike. In kneejerk response, cable has tumbled by 100 pips…
… and gilts are rallying as UK money markets price out any further rate hikes by the BOE in 2018 as the global dovish wave returns.
end
The EU and ECB are not too happy with this development: both Euroskeptic parties will become the government after Berlusconi agreed not to partake in the government. These two parties love to spend and will no doubt break the 3% guideline putting it in direct confrontation with the EU. Remember that the Italy has a huge 360 billion euros of non performing loans on its books. Every Tom Dick and Harry are dumping Italian bonds with the only purchaser: the ECB
fun times again in Italy
(courtesy zerohedge)
Italian Bonds, Stocks Slide As Populist Parties On Verge Of Forming Euroskeptic Government
Chaos has returned to Italy and, appropriately, it has once again started with the bad boy of Italian politics, Silvio Berlusconi, the same flamboyant playboy-cum-former prime minister who back in 2011 nearly withdrew Italy from the Eurozone and only a flagrant political intervention by the ECB prevented the collapse of the European experiment.
As we reported yesterday, in a statement published late on Wednesday night in Italy, Berlusconi changed his long-standing position, and said he’d be open to an agreement between the League and the Five-Star Movement (otherwise known as M5S) to form a ruling coalition that wouldn’t include his center-right party, Forza Italia. And so, with his blessing, on Thursday the anti-establishment Five Star Movement and the far-right League were on the verge of forming a Euroskeptic government in which Europe’s third largest economy would be the latest to succumb to the populist wave unleashed by a decade of central bank errors and record income and wealth disparity.
The two leaders wasted no time, and Luigi Di Maio, the Five Star leader, and Matteo Salvini, the League leader, promptly met to try to iron out details of a potential agreement, including who become next prime minister. Key cabinet positions, including the finance ministry and foreign ministry, were also being discussed according to the FT.
In a joint statement after meeting on Thursday, Di Maio and Salvini described a “positive climate to define the government’s agenda and priorities” and said “technical” meetings among staff would begin in the afternoon. “In terms of the composition of the executive, and the premier, significant steps forward were taken amid constructive collaboration on all sides, with the aim of quickly giving an answer and a political government to the country,” they said.
To be sure, the two had held infrequent talks for the past few weeks, with no concrete outcomes decided due to the veto power bestowed upon Bunga Bunga; however with the Berlusconi blessing, the probability of a government becomes a virtual certainty. The reason: the 81-year-old Berlusconi had previously ruled out offering his support to a Five Star-League government unless his party was fully represented in the executive. At the same time, Five Star had vowed not to govern with Mr Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party, seeing it as part of the traditional political class it has been trying to unseat. This changed on Wednesday night when as we reported, the octogenrian playboy gave an green light to a deal, saying that while Forza Italia would vote against a Five Star-League government in parliament, this would not jeopardise his alliance with Mr Salvini on a local and regional level, where they rely on each other in many municipal and regional councils.
“If a centre-right political force takes on the responsibility of creating a government with Five Star we note that with respect,” Mr Berlusconi said in a tweet. “We will evaluate the government that is created, supporting any measures that are useful for Italians.”
Meanwhile, as we have previously reported, an alliance between Five Star and the League has long been considered the most destabilising outcome of the election because both parties have attacked EU fiscal rules, banking regulations, trade deals and sanctions against Russia. The parties were the winners of the March poll but their gains were not decisive enoughto allow either to govern single-handedly, however combined they garnered more than half of the vote as Italy’s legacy political power, the Democratic Party suffered a spectacular collapse.
Of course, nothing is certain, and should talks between Five Star and the League fail to reach an agreement by Sunday, Italy’s president Mattarella is expected to proceed to nominating a technicratic caretaker administration, replacing the incumbent centre-left government led by Paolo Gentiloni, until the next elections are held.
As the FT adds, in a speech at the European University Institute in Florence on Thursday, Mattarella issued a thinly veiled warning to Five Star and the League not to tear up Rome’s longstanding and deep ties with the EU, which have frayed amid discontent with Brussels over economic policies and migration in recent years.
“To believe one can go it alone is pure illusion, or even worse, a wilful hoax against public opinion,” Mr Mattarella said. “Everyone knows that none of the great challenges facing our continent can be tackled by any single member state, on its own.”
To be sure, markets reflected this new risk and on Thursday, Italy’s 10Y bond yield jumped as much as 1.95% before retracing modestly.
Italian stocks likewise sank on the news, with Italy’s FTSE MIB the worst performing market in Europe today.
On Thursday morning Goldman also noticed, and in a note by the firm’s European analyst Sylvia Ardagna, Goldman writes that “Italy’s political risk increases, and yet the markets remain complacent”
The market reaction has remained remarkably muted. We think the market is complacent in pricing political risk in Italy. In our opinion, a Five Star – Lega government remains the outcome that would likely be viewed as the most negative by the market.
Goldman adds that if the Five Star – Lega attempt to form a government succeeds, “this coalition will have been the least expected outcome going into the the elections. But, in our opinion, this was and remains the outcome that would likely be viewed as the most negative by the market.”
The paradox here, at least according to Goldman, is that markets continue to remain complacent even as the worst case outcome is now a virtual certainty:
Since the general election took place on March 4, news around political developments have been incrementally negative, but the market has remained complacent in pricing political risk in Italy. So far, the market reaction has remained remarkably muted even though the prospect of a Five Star – Lega government has increased. As our strategists have pointed out, carry considerations are being balanced against political risk.
From an economic perspective, however, if the political manifestos of the two parties are any guide to the policies that a Five Star – Lega government would pursue, the upcoming budget law for 2019 would consist of lax fiscal policies that would (i) lead to the deterioration of the public finance outlook and prevent a decline of the stock of public debt, and (ii) increase the probability of ratings downgrades.
Moreover, if lax fiscal policies were to be pursued, leading Italy to breach the 3% deficit rule, these policies would create tensions with the European Union and be a source of disagreement with the European Commission. Even if Five Star and Lega have toned down their anti-European rhetoric, tensions between Italy and European partners would also certainly complicate the efforts at the EU level to make further progress on EMU integration.
There is a much simpler reason for the “market complacency” – as we first explained in December, while the broader market has been dumping Italian bonds, the ECB has been buying them up. Non-stop.
As we showed late last year, just about every other major investor type has become a net seller (to the ECB) or a non-buyer of BTPs over the last couple of years. Said differently, for well over a year, the only marginal buyer of Italian bonds has been the ECB!
As Citi said at the time looking at the future of Italian bonds, it is “pretty likely that there will need to be an adjustment in prices” once the the ECB’s purchases of Italian bonds start to fade. Here Citi provided one suggestion how it may counteract an explosive selloff:
As our rates strategists have pointed out, the ECB could counteract this through an “Italian Operation Twist” (lengthening the maturity of their BTP holdings), but such a response might not come immediately, given the ECB’s reluctance to favour individual countries, unless associated with the conditionality that comes with an economic adjustment programme.
Meanwhile, the risks are rising exponentially. Quote Citi:
To our minds, this remains one of the most significant political risks to € credit in 2018. Most likely the spillover on credit would be concentrated on Italian and other periphery names, banks in particular. The scenario of a full-on funding crisis is a much lower probability in our view, but would obviously have more systemic implications across the € credit market.
And a governing coalition between the Five Star and the League is all that would take to launch the first steps of this funding crisis. The only question is when will the market react accordingly.
end
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
Two commentaries:
last night: a major escalation as Israel retaliates against Iranian shelling out of Syria
(zerohedge)
In Major Escalation, Israel Retaliates For Alleged Iranian Shelling Out Of Syria
Israel is retaliating against what it has described as an attack by Iranian forces out of Syria on its forward defensive line in the border region of the Golan Heights. The attack began around midnight Wednesday.
Both Israeli and Syrian media have reported shelling and explosions in their territory.
Elizabeth Tsurkov✔@ElizraelSources in Quneitra are telling me that shelling from the Israeli side on regime position in Baath City is continuing.
Elizabeth Tsurkov✔@Elizrael3 sources, one near Khan Arnabeh, 2 in Jubatha al-Khashab, are confirming reports of an Israeli strike on a regime position the western outskirts of Hader, a Druze village that houses Hezbollah-affiliated fighters.
Another Quneitra source confirms the interception by Iron Dome.
According to al-Mayadeen Syrian forces shelled 10 positions of the Israeli Army with rockets, and several vehicles were targeted with guided missiles.
Danny Makki@DannymakkisyriaWOW! Pro gov Mayadeen TV reporting from a military source than any further Israeli attacks will be met with larger attacks on #Israel itself
If accurate, the strike on Israel by Syrian (and, as Israel alleges, Iranian) forces would mark the first time that the Syrian Army has retaliated against Israel for strikes in Syrian territory.
Qalaat Al Mudiq@QalaatAlMudiq
Qalaat Al Mudiq@QalaatAlMudiq#Pt. Video showing #Syria|n Regime MRLS bombing #Golan. First time ever direct retaliation for previous #Israel|i strikes. pic.twitter.com/4aK9dHrPPx
Israelis living near the border are now telling the Jerusalem Post that a “prolonged attack” is underway as the two sides exchange fire.
Michael Wilner✔@mawilner#Breaking: “Prepare for several scenarios.” #Israel says forces of #Iran in #Syria fired roughly 20 projectiles to the #GolanHeights, and consider it a “severe” event requiring a response.
* * *
Of course this is breaking and the facts are still murky. But here’s a preliminary timeline of events (as of roughly 5:30 pm ET) shared by independent journalist Danny Makki on twitter.
1.Trump withdraws from IranNuclearDeal
2.Israel Instantly activates bomb Shelters in Golan Heights
3.Israel reports unusual Iranian activity in Syria border areas
4.Sources/Reports begin discussing imminent threat of Iranian led attacks on Israel from Syria
5. Israel strikes Al-Kisweh industrial area around Damascus with two rockets
6. Syrian State Media claims two further rockets were downed
7. Reports that Eight Iranians among 15 foreign pro-government fighters were killed in the attack which took place yesterday
8. Israel continues a steady build up of troops/tanks on Syrian border this morning
9. Heavy Israeli air activity over the Golan Heights today
10. Israeli rocket flies over Qunaitra going towards Damascus, Syrian air defense fired at it
11. Reports claim that the rocket was downed South East of Damascus, Israeli Jets still heavily present in the skies
12. Numerous artillery and mortar strikes from Israel targeted areas around Al-Baath City in Qunaitra province
13. Israeli Tanks firing at Syrian positions also, no reports of casualties so far
14. Sirens reportedly heard on Israeli side of border
15. Numerous Israeli strikes now reported in Hadar in Qunaitra
16. Syrian air defense firing at Israeli rockets targeting Hadar in Qunaitra.
17. Al- Mayadeen reporting numerous Syrian army strikes (Mortars, Artillery) on Israeli positions near border with Syria. Most of the Syrian missiles fired at #Israel were reportedly intercepted by the Iron Dome
18. Pro Gov Al-Mayadeen stating that 4 Israeli locations have been targeted 19. Reports of more Israeli strikes on Hadar in Qunaitra
* * *
An IDF spokesperson has confirmed that Israel sees this as an attack by Iran and are responding accordingly. About 20 missiles were fired by the Iranian Qods Force at Israel’s forward defensive line in the Golan Heights, the spokesman said, confirming that Israel’s iron dome had intercepted “several” of the missiles. No injuries have been reported so far on the Israeli side.
According to local media reports, several shells have reportedly hit the Syrian governate of Quneitra. The shells were reportedly launched from the Israeli-occupied portion of the Golan Heights. Air raid sirens went off in the Israeli-controlled area shortly after the reported strike.
Meanwhile, the Associated Press reports that the Israeli army says air raid sirens have sounded in the Golan Heights shortly after the Syrian state news agency published reports of rocket fire from Israel into southern Syrian just before midnight local time on Wednesday.
Photos and videos of shells being launched into Israel from Syria have begun appearing on social media.
Anshel Pfeffer✔@AnshelPfefferExplosions heard in the Golan but no reports of rockets landing on the Israeli side. Could be Iron Dome interceptions.
Rubi Hammerschlag✔@rubih67בהמשך לאזעקות בגולן: נכון לעכשיו אין דיווח על נפילות בשטחנו. יתכן שכיפת ברזל ירטה שיגור. נשמעו לפחות 2 פיצוצים.
חדשות עשר✔@news10מג’דל שמס: כך נשמעו לפני זמן קצר האזעקות ביישוב @alonbd
The IDF confirmed that sirens were heard in Golan Heights and that it is “looking into the issue”.
IDF✔@IDFSpokespersonInitial report: A short while ago, sirens sounded in the Golan Regional Council in northern Israel
IDF✔@IDFSpokespersonSeveral sirens sounded in the area of the Golan Heights. The details are being looked into and will be given shortly
Israel says it is responding to what it describes as an “Iranian attack”. Though it’s still unclear who fired first.
Qalaat Al Mudiq@QalaatAlMudiq
Qalaat Al Mudiq@QalaatAlMudiq#Pt. Several artillery strikes between Hader & #Israel|i fence (infiltration attempt?). Sources report Regime artillery is retaliating (#Golan). pic.twitter.com/QisBmsBt3f
An editor at the Jerusalem Post said Israel considers the attack a “severe” event and is preparing a response.
Michael Wilner✔@mawilner#Breaking: “Prepare for several scenarios.” #Israel says forces of #Iran in #Syria fired roughly 20 projectiles to the #GolanHeights, and consider it a “severe” event requiring a response.
The IDF has been on high alert in recent days, fearing an attack from Syria. Israel is believed to have carried out a series of deadly airstrikes on Iranian targets in Syria in recent weeks that have killed upwards of ten Iranians.
Meanwhile, as shells are exchanged between Syria and Israel, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is in Moscow visiting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
After 10 hours together, Netanyahu said he conveyed Israel’s obligation to defend itself against Iranian aggression. “I think that matters were presented in a direct and forthright manner, and this is important. These matters are very important to Israel’s security at all times and especially at this time,” he said.
end
The Israeli airstrike in Syria provided the most extensive attack in decades and wiped out almost all of the Iranian infrastructure inside Syria
(courtesy zerohedge)
Israeli Airstrike In Syria Was “Most Extensive Attack In Decades”
In what is now being described as the “most direct confrontation between Israel and Iran in decades,” Israel exchanged fire with Syrian and Iranian forces during a late-night showdown that ended early Thursday morning.
The exchange came days after Israel called up reserve troops to the Golan Heights, the disputed border region.
It also followed by less than two days President Trump’s decision to pull the US out of the Iran deal. Trump said Tuesday that the US would swiftly reimpose economic sanctions on Iran that had been lifted following the 2015 agreement.
According to Syrian media, some 28 Israeli aircraft fired around 60 air-to-surface missiles at Syria during the exchange. Iranian lawmakers have denied the IDF’s claims that Iranian forces in Syria provoked Israel by firing on their positions in the Golan Heights border area.
Israel also launched roughly 10 surface-to-surface missiles, which struck military targets near Damascus and in Southern Syria, according to the Russian military.
Meanwhile, the IDF says Israel’s Iron Dome defense system intercepted 20 rockets launched at Israeli targets by Syrian and Iranian forces based in Syria.
While Israeli has pointed the finger squarely at Iran, the country’s bitter rival has denied any involvement.
Mohammad Javad Jamali Nobandegani, a member of Iranian parliament’s national security and foreign policy committee, said Israel’s claim was “a lie,” adding that Israel’s history of carrying out unprovoked attacks in Syria has been well-documented.
“Iran does not have military base in Syria,” Nobandegani added.
The Israeli officials said the strikes damaged Iranian infrastructure in Syria, according to CNN.
“Israel has hit almost all of Iran’s infrastructure in Syria,” Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman said Thursday morning. “If it will rain in Israel, there will be a biblical flood on the other side.”
Now that the dust has settled, the timeline of events is becoming more clear: On Wednesday night, Syria’s state-run SANA television station reported that Israel fired several missiles at the city of Baath in Quneitra. No casualties were reported.
A short time later, Syrian state-run media reported that while dozens of “hostile” Israeli missiles had been intercepted in Syrian airspace, at least two others had hit an ammunition depot and destroyed a radar site.
Israel and Iran have been waging what the New York Times called a “shadow war” in Syria for months, as Israel has launched dozens of airstrikes, with sometimes deadly results for Syrian and Iranian soldiers.
The damage inflicted on Syrian military and civilian infrastructure is still being evaluated.
The exchange marked the first time that Syrian Army forces have fired directly on Israeli troops, according to Israeli claims. Meanwhile, RT described the Israeli air raid as one of the country’s “most extensive attacks in years.”
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov urged Israel and the US to avoid acts that could lead to a spiraling conflict.
While Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov denounced the exchange as dangerous, saying it would get in the way of a political settlement to end the Syrian conflict.
“The current aggravation between Israel and Iran, their exchange of strikes, is dangerous, as it distracts from the fight against ISIS, against terrorists, hampers the political settlement of the situation in Syria,” said Russian deputy foreign minister Mikhail Bogdanov, the state-run RIA Novosti news agency reported.
Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin – who met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Moscow yesterday – urged restraint on the part of Israel. Israel notified Russia ahead of the attack.
“The situation, unfortunately, is very acute. I want to hope that we will be able not only to discuss with you, but also to look for solutions that would soften the situation,” said Putin.
While observers, including United Nations General Secretary Antonio Guterres, have warned that tensions between Israel and Iran could spark the next world war, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad played down this claims during an interview with a Greek newspaper published Thursday.
In an interview with the Greek newspaper Kathimerini published Thursday, Assad said fears of a third world war erupting in Syria were misplaced, despite escalating tensions.
Assad told the paper that “wise Russian leadership” would prevent such an event, describing the current conflict as “something more than a cold war, less than a full-blown war.” He also took aim at the US, saying the Russians “know that the agenda of the deep state in the United States is to create a conflict.”
As of now, it’s unclear whether Israel and Iran will escalate the conflict, or whether the tit-for-tat strikes have come to an end. SANA reported that the strikes mark “the start of a new phase of Israeli aggression against Syria,” according to Sputnik.
The Golan Heights is widely seen as Israeli-occupied territory after it was taken from Syria during the 1967 Six-Day War.
end
Israel states that its skirmish with Iran inside Syria has ended after wiping out most of its infrastructure. Israel warns Iran not to retaliate for if it does, then attacks will be more severe.
(courtesy zerohedge)
Iran Claims Israel Attack Was A False Flag
While Iran maintains that last night’s skirmish between the Israeli Defense Force and Syrian Army forces was a false flag, and that the IDF struck first (continuing its pattern of airstrikes and other military assaults in Syria), the IDF boasted Thursday morning that Tehran “will need a lot of time to recover” from the most extensive Israeli attack in Syria since 1974.
An Iranian lawmakers said Thursday that Iran had no role in the attack, and that it doesn’t operate any bases in Syria.
Mohammad Javad Jamali Nobandegani, a member of the Iranian Parliament’s national security and foreign policy committee, said Israel’s claim was “a lie,” adding that Israel’s history of carrying out unprovoked attacks in Syria has been well-documented.
“Iran does not have military base in Syria,” Nobandegani added.
Meanwhile, Israel said Iran paid a “heavy price” for its (nonexistent) aggression following multiple Israeli airstrikes against what Tel Aviv said were targets belonging to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp’s Quds Force.
Unsurprisingly, the alleged Iranian attack resulted in no casualties or damage to Israeli infrastructure, with no rockets hitting Israeli-held territory (the Golan Heights border region is considered Syrian territory occupied by Israel).
“Iran will need a lot of time and resources to rehabilitate its operational, military and intelligence infrastructures we hit tonight,” an IDF spokesman said. The spokesman warned that “any other attempt” to hurt Israel will “pay even more.”
A map of the military targets published by the IDF shows multiple sites near Damascus and also near the Syria-Israel border.
Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman claims “all the Iranian infrastructure” in the Arab republic was hit.
Jonathan Conricus@LTCJonathanThe IDF has struck dozens of Iranian military targets in Syria in response to the Iranian rocket attack against Israel. Quds force is behind attack and has played the initial price. IDF remains ready for various scenarios but does not seek to escalate the situation.
During the attack, Israeli jets struck intelligence sites and arms depots, among other military targets allegedly operated by the Iranian forces. Syria’s SANA state news channel said earlier that a Syrian radar installation was hit in the attack while “tens” of missiles were intercepted.
Though the IDF says it’s not seeking “further escalation,” the IDF says that “the Syrian regime will be held accountable for everything happening in its territory,” and has warned against any retaliatory attack.
“They must understand that if it rains here, it will pour there,” said Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman, who spoke at the Herzliya security conference near Tel Aviv several hours after the skirmish began.
Lieberman added that Israeli forces remain on high alert, but said he hopes this “chapter” is finished.
Of course, Western media like the New York Times – which has repeatedly demonstrated a fervent pro-Israeli bias – opted to take the IDF at its word – a move that drew consternation from independent Syrian journalists.
Rania Khalek
✔@RaniaKhalek
FYI Syrian commanders on the ground report that it was the Syrian army and the National Defense Forces (NDF) that responded to Israeli provocations in the Golan Heights. They say there are no Shia forces in the area and that reports that Iran fired at Israel are false. https://twitter.com/haaretzcom/status/994341160515653633 …
Rania Khalek
✔@RaniaKhalek
Maybe don’t let the Israelis dictate headlines pic.twitter.com/XCMywDP1AH
But why even bother to verify Iran’s claims when it’s easier to just quote the IDF spokesman
end
a must read…
(courtesy Tom Luongo)
Will Trump Pay The Price For What He Wants From Iran?
“We will pay the price, but we will not count the cost.” – Rush, “Bravado”
Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Iran Nuclear Deal could spark a major reset of foreign relations. Is this a mistake or the right course of action?
That depends on your perspective. It depends on whether you believe, as the Israelis do, that Iran is ready to build a nuclear weapon to point at them.
But the bigger question to me is whether Trump is willing to put on the table what he needs to get what he wants, a secure Israel and an Iran without nukes. Tearing up the deal may be the first step towards that end, but not in the way he’s thinking.
Where’s the Beef?
Now, thousands of column inches have been spilled detailing how inordinately stupid it would be for either Israel or Iran to lob nukes at one another. No matter who starts it, the ending will be tragic for much of the world.
So, no sane person would do this right? The narrative has been spun up that Israel is rational and Iran is not. Pure and simple. That’s the narrative. That justifies taking away Iran’s ultimate right to defend itself against aggression from foreign powers.
Both sides of this conflict can rightly point fingers at the other as to their adventures beyond their own borders. And here I break with my libertarian brethren. It does little good today to say who is more justified. To argue about who started it. Because we are well beyond that point.
So, what does Donald Trump want? What’s his main beef with the JCPOA?
The sunset clause.
He wants a guarantee in writing from Iran to forever stop development of a nuclear weapon. Israel has been pushing for this policy point since the end of the Iran/Iraq war, which is where all of this likely started.
Iran, in response to Saddam Hussein’s own tactical nuclear weapons development, began work on theirs. After this the whole thing gets murky. But, let’s assume that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is right about one thing; that Iran is year or two away from a nuclear weapon.
So, to Trump the sunset clause is moronic.
And, rightly so. But, that’s not the whole story.
The Price of the Deal
Now let’s go back to 2012. The U.S. and its partners – Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey – begin the regime change operation in Syria.
We use the financial equivalent of a nuclear strike, cutting them from the SWIFT electronic payment network. We freeze hundreds of billions in Iranian assets.
The U.S. cuts Iran out of the global financial system to effect regime change. The Iranian Rial devalues 50% overnight.
Syria’s biggest ally, Iran, other than Russia is neutralized through financial warfare.
Nuclear weapons are only effective as a deterrent to behavior. They cannot actually be used. Obama’s first mistake was going to this option weaponizing SWIFT. We’d used it successfully on Switzerland in 2010 to hunt down tax evaders. But everyone watching this play out knew it was a bad idea.
I remember Jim Sinclair saying this over and over again. You can’t go to the nuclear well. Because if it doesn’t work, you have nothing left to threaten anyone with. Financial wars eventually become hot wars.
In short, Iran survived, with the help of a lot of people, including Turkey who altered its banking regulations to re-monetize gold as a bank asset to help Iran process international oil payments through Turkish banks.
Now, fast forward to 2015. The Syria operation is nearly over. Assad is hanging on by a thread.
The Sunni animals we used as proxies were about to take power.
Hezbollah would be isolated in Lebanon. Russia’s access to the Mediterranean would be blocked, especially after thwarting our attempt to take Sevastopol and Crimea.
Negotiating a deal to let Iran back into the world market had little downside. In fact, at that point, opening up Iran to international capital would hasten the overthrow of the theocracy.
U.S. and European oil contractors wanted access to Iran. With Syria destroyed, pipelines coming in from Saudi Arabia and Qatar through Turkey into Europe would hurt Gazprom and Russia.
At that point letting Iran back into the world would have been a win for the West. Isolated and alone, with radical Sunnis in power all through the region Iran would never become the kind of power that could threaten Israeli and Saudi dominance.
So, the JCPOA was a pantomime. Iran agrees to a moratorium on nuclear development it may or may not have been engaging in and in return, it gets sanctions relief and its stolen assets returned.
If Syria fell to the Wahabists then Iran would need that nuclear capability to defend itself. So, getting that moratorium in writing, the thinking likely went, would be enough because in 10 years the current Iranian government wouldn’t exist.
The threat would be moot.
Looking at it this way, 10 years was as good as forever.
The Bear Trap
Now, here’s the rub. In July of 2015 when the deal was being finalized, were Iran and Russia negotiating the sunset clause in ‘bad faith’ because they knew Putin would militarily intervene in Syria three months later?
If so, then I fully understand the frustration coming from Israel and the U.S., particularly Trump. It’s a bad deal because the sunset clause solves nothing permanently. The return of Iranian capital has allowed them to support winning the war in Syria.
But, at the end of the day, that’s Monday morning quarterbacking. The Obama administration and the entire geopolitical sphere didn’t expect Russia to intervene militarily, and if they did they would be bogged down in a nightmarish quagmire.
That was the thinking in 2015.
Trump’s analysis of this situation is that the JCPOA got the U.S. nothing but heartache and Iran won the deal. But, this was an outcome no one expected. No one expected Russia, Iran, Hezbollah and China to stand up to the U.S. in Syria.
Maybe Netanyahu, but I doubt it.
And if you think that Iran’s money has been the game changer I say nonsense. The real financial backer of Assad has been the silent partner, China.
China threatened to send troops into Syria in an uncharacteristic display of partisanship. They ultimately didn’t, but don’t take that to mean they haven’t provided a lot of soft support to those fighting in Syria.
The rest, after that, is history. And the U.S., Israel and Saudi Arabia have been scrambling ever since.
This Syrian Cross
Syria is the U.S.’s Rubicon.
It’s the line we should have never crossed. To win we engaged in tactics and strategies that laid bare to the world the depth of our foreign policy depravity.
Moreover, it exposed us as far weaker than was previously thought. Iran’s successful resistance to the 2012 sanctions, no matter how painful, created responses that today have changed the game completely.
The emperor is only powerful as long as no one challenges his authority. First the mullahs, then Putin, then Xi and now Kim. They have all defied the U.S. and won to some extent and each small victory exposes a little bit more of the emperor’s nudity.
The Syrian Operation has failed in any geopolitical sense of the term. The basic goal of removing Assad and isolating Iran and Hezbollah were not achieved. Russia is stronger, with operational experience for its troops using some of its best weapons against U.S.-backed forces.
When an operation like this fails those that instigated it wind up losing the most. Qatar and Turkey cut bait in 2016. Any support from Egypt is also gone.
But the U.S., Israel and the Saudis are pot-committed. And so now they have to salvage what they can. And that means getting rid of the deal to regain some control over the situation.
But, Syria and Afghanistan will be the U.S. empire’s graveyard. I only hope that Trump gets past his blind hatred of Iran to see this clearly after he pulls out of the JCPOA.
What Can Trump Salvage?
By tearing up the JCPOA Trump is trying to force the situation back to 2012 to gain some leverage. But, it’s 2018. Oil prices are $70 a barrel, which the Saudis desperately need. The EU is teetering on the edge of political and financial collapse.
Russia survived the ruble crisis and China is the world’s largest economy from a purchasing-power-parity perspective (the only perspective with any validity). Both have SWIFT-compliant internal financial communications networks that can assist Iran if sanctions are put back on.
Hell, there are blockchains out there that can help Iran get paid for its oil.
The EU signatories want to continue the deal and could very well defy Trump on this, not adhering to new sanctions.
Today, Trump tries to force wins on trade policy that will only destroy global trade and harm U.S. producers in the long run. He wants a guarantee from Iran that they will remain without nukes to threaten Israel or Saudi Arabia with.
It’s a noble goal.
He won’t get that without giving up something substantial. Obama traded Iran’s money back to them, which he stole, for a moratorium on nuclear development at a time when he felt the U.S. was winning on every front. He gave up little to get what looked like a lot at the time.
Again, was this a classic Russian cauldron? Invite your enemy in, let them over-extend themselves and then encircle? Possibly. We’ll only know after Putin retires and writes his memoirs.
Today the deal looks like the reverse. Obama gave up everything for nothing solid. But, given what he was willing to put on the table that was all he was going to get.
When Trump tears up this deal to negotiate a new one he’s going to sell Iran and Russia the same false value that Obama did in 2015. The U.S. will give up trying to oust Assad if you guarantee to never develop nukes.
But, that deal is a non-starter. Because the U.S. will eventually be routed from Syria lest we move to a hot war with Russia, which no one wants.
The U.S. has to swear off regime change by removing its troops from both Syria and Afghanistan as a starting point and guaranteeing that the Saudis never get nuclear weapons. Iran may also demand Israel finally sign the Non-Proliferation Treaty. I’m sure that deal is a non-starter as well.
But, our military commitments in these places is gutting the U.S. budget. Trump thinks that he can pull a Reagan and grow his way out of the deficits he’s encumbering us with. But, he can’t. The situation is too dire. We’re not at the beginning of the dollar reserve standard, we’re at the end of it.
So, Russia, China and Iran will all hold their water and negotiate knowing that the war of financial attrition is theirs to win.
Just like it was in 2012. And, deal or no deal, the bigger threat to the U.S. is the further deterioration of diplomatic respect we have with the rest of the world.
Since taking office all Trump’s done is betray his base by doubling down in Afghanistan, striking Syria over false flags, selling weapons to Ukraine and further entrenching us in a nightmarish war in Yemen.
None of these things screams ‘no regime change.’
They all scream war with Iran which has been his position since day one. The Koreas are forcing his hand on peace there over the objections of his foreign policy team.
So, if this is his way of keeping a foreign policy promise to his base, to satisfy them politically before the mid-terms, he has only himself to blame. No matter how much he tries to blame Obama.
This whole affair highlights the most important axiom about war, ‘the only way to win is not to play.’
* * *
To support work like this and gain some much-needed help in navigating these stressful financial times, sign up for my Patreon and subscribe to the Gold Goats ‘n Guns Investment Newsletter for just $12/month
end
Quite a week for Trump as 5 of the most wanted ISIS leaders were captured today in an ingenious plot using a smartphone app
(courtesy zerohedge)
Five “Most Wanted” ISIS Leaders Captured, Trapped Using Smartphone App
Out of the blue, on Thursday morning a euphoric President Trump tweeted on Thursday that five of the “Most Wanted leaders of ISIS” have been captured.
Donald J. Trump✔@realDonaldTrumpFive Most Wanted leaders of ISIS just captured!
Hours before, a security advisor to Iraq’s government said that Iraqi agents had detained a top aide to ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, then used an app on his smartphone to lure four commanders from the terrorist organization into a trap – convincing the four Iraqis and one Syrian to cross the border from Syria to Iraq where they were captured by officials.
The aide, Ismail al-Eithawi (a.k.a. Abu Zaid al-Iraqi) was captured in Turkey by authorities and handed over to Iraqi counterparts, according to an account told to Reuters by Iraqi security advisor Hisham al-Hashimi. What followed was a three-month operation to track a group of senior Islamic State leaders hiding in Syria and Turkey.
Those arrested included Saddam al-Jammel, a Syrian who had been the head of the Islamic State territory around Deir al-Zour, and Abu Abdel al-Haq, an Iraqi who had been the head of internal security for the group. Two other Iraqis were also arrested, the officials said. –New York Times
Gareth Browne@BrowneGarethAl-Jamal AKA Abu Udai Al-Jamal was particularly prominent in his hometown. He is reported to have lead a massacre of more than 70 in 2014 near Al-Bukamal. (2)
Iraqi agents used the Telegram messaging app on Eithawi’s mobile phone to lure other Islamic State commanders to cross the border from Syria into Iraq, where they were captured. Those held include Saddam Jamal, a Syrian who served as the group’s governor of Syria’s eastern Euphrates region.
Hashimi described Eithawi and Jamal as the two most senior Islamic State figures ever to be captured alive. The capture of all five was announced on Iraqi state TV on Wednesday.
Hashimi said the operation was carried out in cooperation with U.S. forces, part of an American-led coalition fighting against Islamic State on both sides of the Iraqi-Syrian border. –Daily Mail
Following the capture of Eithawi, US and Iraqi intelligence agents worked to uncover bank accounts used by the terrorist organization, as well as secret communication codes they had been using, Hashimi said.
The other three men captured were ISIL field commanders: Syrian Mohamed al-Qadeer and two Iraqis, Omar al-Karbouli and Essam al-Zawbai, according to Hashimi – who said ‘The noose is tightening around him,’ referring to Baghdadi, whose real name is Ibrahim al-Samarrai.
Baghdadi is believed to be in hiding in the Iraqi-Syrian border region after the loss of once-captured cities and towns of his self-proclaimed caliphate.
Iraq, meanwhile, is committed to eradicating Syrian-based militants, according to Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi.
The Iraqi air force has carried out several air strikes since last year against Islamic State positions in Syrian territory.
Abadi declared final victory last December over the ultra-hardline group within Iraq. But the militants still pose a threat along the border with Syria and have continued to carry out ambushes, killings and bombings across Iraq.
Islamic State militants last month restated their loyalty to Baghdadi, in what is believed to be their first public pledge of allegiance to him since his self-proclaimed caliphate collapsed last year in both Syria and Iraq. –Daily Mail
Adding this to the three rescued hostages from North Korea, and it’s clear that the Trump administration is having a very good day.
Donald Trump Jr.✔@DonaldJTrumpJrWow. I wonder if these are the guys Obama have back in exchange for Bergdahl? The count for the past 12 hours is pretty impressive. 3 captive brought home 5 isis leaders captured. Today is a good day. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/09/world/middleeast/iraq-isis-islamic-state-arrest.html …
Sean Davis✔@seanmdavThis is a remarkable story. The level of coordination and cooperation between the U.S., Iraq, and Turkey is also noteworthy. https://nytimes.com/2018/05/09/world/middleeast/iraq-isis-islamic-state-arrest.html#click=https://t.co/Z3kKMeobGN …
Robby Starbuck✔@robbystarbuck
Set a summit to bring peace to the Korean Peninsula
Pretty damn good week for the President @realDonaldTrump and his Administration.
.
6 .GLOBAL ISSUES
Nomi Prins is one smart girl.
a great book/and great commentary
(courtesy NomiPrins)
Central Banks: The Great Experiment Has Failed
Authored by Nomi Prins via The Daily Reckoning,
My latest book, Collusion: How Central Bankers Rigged the World, is about the leading central banks and their incestuous relationships.
The book dives into how central banks rigged the cost of money and the state of the markets, and ultimately created more inequality and instability as a result. They did all of this in order to subsidize private banks at the expense of people everywhere.
The book reveals the people in charge of these strategies, their elite gatherings and public and private communications. It uncovers how their policies rerouted economies, geopolitics, trade wars and elections.
Central banks have several functions from an official standpoint.
The first is to regulate the smooth and orderly operation of private banks or public banks within a particular country or region (the ECB is responsible for many countries in Europe).
The other function they are tasked with is setting interest rates (the cost of borrowing money) so that there’s adequate economic balance between full employment and a select inflation rate.
The idea is that if the cost of money is cheap enough, private banks will lend to the general population and businesses. The ultimate goal is that the money can be used to expand enterprise, hire people and develop a stronger economy.
In an environment where the cost of money is too cheap, it could cause inflation. When inflation rises, central banks are expected to lower the cost of money in order to keep it under wraps.
While those basic functions should be relatively simple, what has unfolded is anything but.
Since the financial crisis, the Fed has been unleashed. The U.S. central bank has quite literally fabricated nearly $4.5 trillion in funds to buy bonds (assets) from the major private banks. It should be noted that those private banking institutions are members of the Fed system.
The Fed then provides that money to the banks and the institution can then hold the funds in reserve, or choose to sell their Treasury or mortgage bonds back to the Fed.
The reality is, central banks have provided money as cheaply as possible to banks in order to keep the private banking system operating.
When looking at the world since the financial crisis, it was clear that there was a “pivot” between regions. Different countries, and their respective central banks, were either forced to participate in, or caught up in, in the collusion started by the Fed.
The Fed’s playbook was then deployed across the world by other central banks.
In particular, the G7 collectively fabricated $21 trillion worth of money. They took the liberty then to buy government bonds, corporate bonds, mortgage bonds and, in the case of Japan, ETFs (exchange-traded funds). Other banks, like Switzerland, went so far as to create money and directly purchase stocks.
What this meant was that an external supply of money was injected into the world’s markets, in a nearly limitless amount. These actions pushed markets higher, and the bond markets were inflated with this excess money, causing a new round of debt bubbles.
These “conjured money” efforts did nothing to alter the fundamental values of companies. Companies could borrow money and buy their own stocks on the cheap, increasing the size of corporate debt and the level of the stock market to record highs.
Because money was so cheap and interest rates so low, no other investment opportunities could offer the same high returns, so speculators piled into the stock markets, further elevating their levels.
We have built up corporate debt and the markets to such great highs that the potential for a fall would be at an unprecedented level. To further complicate the matter, we have seen record buybacks occurring in the markets, but such landmark moves are not connected to organic growth and are detached from the foundation of any economy.
To visualize this, imagine pulling the rug out from under a table full of dishes. The higher you stack the dishes, the greater the crash when they fall.
Today’s global debt to GDP ratio stands at a record of 224%, according to the IMF’s latest calculations, amidst record debt of $164 trillion. Much of that debt was created because the central banks offered up money at such cheap levels to borrow.
To add to the complexity, certain central banks are starting to realize that reversing their course could present its own problems. If those cheap money rates do rise, and currencies like the dollar appreciate in value, developing countries that took on debts over the past decade will be cornered into a difficult position to repay it.
That debt trap itself could be a catalyst for economic shock and job losses. Such moves would likely begin in lesser-developed economies, and eventually grow outward.
There is also considerable reason to believe that any major banking collapse could have similar characteristics. Banks will either lock down the money they lent, or restrict the funds available for withdrawal to depositors, depending on the severity level of collapse.
Historically, governments have tried to respond to such conditions with government-led bailouts (augmented by corresponding central bank bailouts), but they are not usually enough to forestall stock markets crashing, pensions tanking and life-insurance funds being gutted.
Perhaps most alarming, we have seen virtually no real steps to reform the financial system.
Despite some cosmetic regulations to curtail certain risky behaviors, since the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act in 1999, there is still no division between depositors’ funds and those used by banks for speculation.
The big banks continue to make massive trading bets, and corporations are still focused on buying back stock for short-term shareholder gains rather than reinvestment in their businesses.
Since the financial crisis, not a single bank CEO has been seriously punished, despite the frauds and felonies committed by the biggest U.S. banks. If a person steals a car, he gets charged with a felony and likely goes to prison. If a big bank, like Wells Fargo recently, scams millions of dollars of phony fees from its customers, its CEO gets a raise.
Meanwhile, the government regulator in charge gets a promotion to a top spot in the Federal Reserve system.
By bringing back legislation like the Glass-Steagall Act that divides those two elements of banking, separating them into different institutions, we could keep banks from having greater influence on government. It would also help protect everyday citizens’ money.
Meanwhile, we could limit the amount of money central banks can fabricate to artificially elevate these banks and the markets — markets in which the majority of people have no stake. In fact, just 10% of the population owns 84% of the stock market.
At the very least, we could have an independent audit of these central banks to allow voters and leaders to better understand where their money goes and what is used for.
We should also call out and alter the austerity measures enacted throughout the world that are punitive to people, while in the backdrop so much money has been conjured to help the banks and financial system.
By doing so we could potentially shift central banks’ roles as well as private banks’ incentives to building long-term infrastructure and to financing small and local businesses. In this way, we could assist the less wealthy and enable upward mobility for all.
Globally, the $21 trillion conjured by these central banks that still remains, if diverted into the foundational — or real — economy could provide regular citizens of the world (to whom I dedicate my new book) a fighting chance.
8. EMERGING MARKET
ARGENTINA
VENEZUELA
END
Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00 am
Euro/USA 1.1884 UP .0038/ REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ SPAIN VS CATALONIA/REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:/TRUMP HEALTH CARE DEFEAT//ITALIAN REFERENDUM DEFEAT/AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA FALLING INTEREST RATES AGAIN/HOUSTON FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES MOSTLY RED
USA/JAPAN YEN 109,65 DOWN 0.194(Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/SIGNALS U TURN WITH INCREASED NEGATIVITY IN NIRP/JAPAN OUT OF WEAPONS TO FIGHT ECONOMIC DISASTER/
GBP/USA 1.3514 DOWN.0030 (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED
USA/CAN 1.2778 DOWN .0071 (CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)
Early THIS THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 38 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1884; / Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED UP 15.26 POINTS OR 0.48% / Hang Sang CLOSED UP 273.08 POINTS OR 0.89% /AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP.18% / EUROPEAN BOURSES MOSTLY RED
The NIKKEI: this THURSDAY morning CLOSED UP 88.30 OR .39%
Trading from Europe and Asia
1/EUROPE OPENED MOSTLY RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / : Hang Sang CLOSED UP 273,08 POINTS OR 0.89% / SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 15.26 POINTS OR 0.48% /
Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP .18%
Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 88.30 POINTS OR .39%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 1316.55
silver:$16.60
Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.97% !!! DOWN 3 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/
The 30 yr bond yield 3.14 DOWN 2 IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/
USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 92.91 DOWN 13 CENT(S) from WEDNESDAY’s close.
This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.725% UP 1 in basis point(s) yield from WEDNESDAY/
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.0.053% DOWN 1/5 in basis points yield from WEDNESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.313% UP 1 IN basis point yield from WEDNESDAY/
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.935 UP 5 POINTS in basis point yield from WEDNESDAY/
the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 63 points HIGHER than Spain.
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD:FALLS TO +.557% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY
END
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY
Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1901 UP .0055(Euro UP 55 Basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/
USA/Japan: 109.54 DOWN 0.295 Yen UP 30 basis points/
Great Britain/USA 1.3493 DOWN .0050( POUND DOWN 50 BASIS POINTS)
USA/Canada 1.2780 DOWN .0069 Canadian dollar UP 69 Basis points AS OIL FELL TO $71,11
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
This afternoon, the Euro was UP 55 to trade at 1.1901
The Yen FELL to 109.54 for a GAIN of 30 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE
The POUND FELL BY 50 basis points, trading at 1.3493/
The Canadian dollar ROSE by 69 basis points to 1.2780/ WITH WTI OIL FALLING TO : $71.11
The USA/Yuan closed AT 6.3492
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.053% DOWN 1/5 IN BASIS POINTS / yield/
Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 2 IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 2.978% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.144 DOWN 1 in basis points on the day /
THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS
Your closing USA dollar index, 92.86 DOWN 18 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/
Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 1:00 PM EST
London: CLOSED UP 38.45 POINTS OR 0.50%
German Dax :CLOSED UP 79.81 POINTS OR 0.62%
Paris Cac CLOSED UP 11.32 POINTS OR .20%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 25.40 POINTS OR 0.25%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 232.66 POINTS OR 0,96%
The Dow closed UP 196.99 POINTS OR 0.80%
NASDAQ closed UP 65.07 Points OR 0.89.% 4.00 PM EST
WTI Oil price; 71,11 1:00 pm;
Brent Oil: 77.17 1:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE CROSS: 61.72 DOWN 135/100 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 135 BASIS PTS)
TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS TO +.557% FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST
END
This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM
Closing Price for Oil, 4:30 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:
WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:$71.41
BRENT: $77,39
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.96% THIS RAPID RISE IN YIELD IS ALSO VERY DANGEROUS/RECESSION COMING/DERIVATIVES FRY!!
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.11%/DEADLY
EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1921 UP .0074 (UP 74 BASIS POINTS)
USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.41 DOWN 0.435/ YEN UP 44 BASIS POINTS/ .
USA DOLLAR INDEX: 92.69 DOWN 35 cent(s)/dangerous as the lower the dollar the higher the inflation.
The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.3517 DOWN 0.0025 (FROM YESTERDAY NIGHT DOWN 25 POINTS)
Canadian dollar: 1.2764 UP 86 BASIS pts
German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: +0.557%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 13.23 CLOSED DOWN 0.19
LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.355% .
And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver
TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY
HARVEY
Harvey, look at your dates…
LikeLike