GOLD: $1292.60 UP $1.05 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)
Silver: $16.56 UP 6 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)
Closing access prices:
Gold $1291.50
silver: $16.54
For comex gold:
MAY/
NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR MAY CONTRACT:35 NOTICE(S) FOR 3500 OZ.
TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR 685 FOR 68500 OZ (2.130 tonnes)
For silver:
MAY
13 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR
65,000 OZ/
Total number of notices filed so far this month: 6130 for 30,650,000 oz
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Bitcoin: BID $8183/OFFER $8283: DOWN $160(morning)
Bitcoin: BID/ $8127/offer $8227: UP $213 (CLOSING/5 PM)
end
First Shanghai gold fix comes at 10 pm est
The second Shanghai gold fix: 2:15 pm
First Shanghai gold fix gold: 10 pm est: 1295.17
NY price at the same time: 1290.15
PREMIUM TO NY SPOT: $5.02
ss
Second gold fix early this morning: 1298.83
USA gold at the exact same time:1290.80
PREMIUM TO NY SPOT: $9.03
AGAIN, SHANGHAI REJECTS NEW YORK PRICING.
WE WILL NOT PROVIDE LONDON FIXES AS THEY ARE NOT ACCURATE AS TO WHAT IS GOING ON AT THE SAME TIME FRAME.
Let us have a look at the data for today
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A TINY 368 CONTRACTS FROM 200,100 FALLING TO 199,896 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S 5 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY COMEX LONG LIQUIDATION AS WE ENTERED INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY AS LONGS PACK THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATE OVER TO LONDON. WE WERE NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD A FAIR SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP : 943 EFP’S FOR JULY AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE OF 943 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 943 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 943 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 4.715 MILLION OZ ACCOMPANYING:
1.THE 5 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND
2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR MAY COMEX DELIVERY. (31.445 MILLION OZ)
ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF APRIL: (FINAL)
29,464 CONTRACTS (FOR 16 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 29,464 CONTRACTS) OR 147.320 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1841 CONTRACTS OR 9.207 MILLION OZ/DAY)
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER: SO FAR THIS MONTH: 147.320 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 21.04% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)
ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S: 1,292.64 MILLION OZ.
ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018: 236.879 MILLION OZ
ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018: 244.95 MILLION OZ
ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018: 236.67 MILLION OZ
ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL 2018: 385.75 MILLION OZ
RESULT: WE HAD A TINY SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX OF 368 DESPITE THE 5 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE. WE HAVE NOW ENTERED THE NEW ACTIVE MONTH OF MAY. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT IN FACT WE HAD AN STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 943 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) . FROM THE CME DATA: 943 EFP CONTRACTS FOR JULY, AND ZERO FOR ALL OVER MONTHS FOR A DELIVERABLE FORWARD CONTRACT OVER IN LONDON WITH A FIAT BONUS (TOTAL: 943). TODAY WE GAINED 575 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: i.e. 943 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH AN DECREASE OF 368 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH THE 5 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $16.50 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN THIS ACTIVE MAY DELIVERY MONTH. IT SURE LOOKS LIKE A FAILED BANKER SHORT COVERING EXERCISE!!
In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.999 MILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 143% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).
FOR THE NEW FRONT MAY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 13 NOTICE(S) FOR 65,000 OZ OF SILVER
IN SILVER, WE HAVE NOW SET THE NEW RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51 ON APRIL 9.2018.
ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:
- HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY (MARCH: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL: 2.485 MILLION OZ AND MAY: 31.445 MILLION OZ )
- HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018
- HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
- RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/ (FINAL)
AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND. TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT). IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE BANKER CAPITULATION IN SILVER AS THEY STRUGGLE TO REMOVE SOME OF THEIR HUGE OBLIGATIONS.
In gold, the open interest FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 6679 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 508,558 DESPITE THE TINY LOSS IN THE GOLD PRICE/YESTERDAY’S TRADING (LOSS OF $0.50). WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY. THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED AN STRONG SIZED 10,793 CONTRACTS : JUNE SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 9738 CONTRACTS , MAY SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 0 CONTRACTS AND AUGUST SAW THE ISSUANCE OF: 1055 CONTRACTS WITH ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO. The new OI for the gold complex rests at 506,479. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S. THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY. THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED OI GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 6,679 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND AN STRONG SIZED 10,793 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON.THUS TOTAL OI GAIN: 4114 CONTRACTS OR 411,400 OZ = 12.79 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS OCCURRED WITH A TINY LOSS OF $0.50
YESTERDAY, WE HAD 8034 EFP’S ISSUED.
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY : 153,421 CONTRACTS OR 15,342,100 OZ OR 477.20 TONNES (16 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 9,588 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY OR 958,800 OZ/ TRADING DAY),,
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 16 TRADING DAYS IN TONNES: 477.20 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 477.20/2550 x 100% TONNES = 18.71% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN APRIL ALONE.*** THE ACCUMULATION OF EFP CONTRACTS IS RISING PER MONTH.
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE: 3,234.83* TONNES *SURPASSED ANNUAL PROD’N
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018: 653.22 TONNES
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018: 649.45 TONNES
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018: 741.89 TONNES (22 TRADING DAYS)
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR APRIL 2018: 713.84 TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 6679 WITH THE $0.50 FALL IN PRICE // GOLD TRADING YESTERDAY ($0.50 LOSS). WE ALSO HAD AN STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 10,793 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED. THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX. I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 10,793 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A GOOD SIZED NET GAIN OF 4114 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:
10,793 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 6679 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 12.80 TONNES). ..AND BELIEVE IT OR NOT BUT ALL OF THESE OCCURRED AT THE COMEX WITH A TINY LOSS OF $0.50 IN TRADING!!!.
we had: 35 notice(s) filed upon for 3500 oz of gold at the comex.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:
GLD…
WITH GOLD UP $1.05 / NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.04 TONNES
Inventory rests tonight: 862.04 tonnes.
SLV/
WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS NO CHANGES IN THE SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV INVENTORY/
/INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.003 MILLION OZ/
end
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A TINY SIZED 368 CONTRACTS from 200,264 DOWN TO 199,896 (AND, FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET /APRIL 9/2017 AT 243,411/SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). THE PREVIOUS RECORD OTHER THAN WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER ONE YEAR AGO. THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89. OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS CONTINUES AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE: , 0 EFP CONTRACTS FOR MAY (WE DO NOT GET A LOOK AT THESE CONTRACTS AS IT IS PRIVATE BUT THE CFTC DOES AUDIT THEM), AND 943 EFP’S FOR JULY AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 943 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 368 CONTRACTS TO THE 943 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S, WE OBTAIN A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 575 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 2.875 MILLION OZ!!! AND THIS OCCURRED WITH NO GAIN IN PRICE . THE BANKERS ORCHESTRATED THEIR RAID THROUGHOUT LAST WEEK DESPERATELY TRYING TO PARE THEIR GIGANTIC OPEN INTEREST SHORT ON BOTH EXCHANGES BUT TO NO AVAIL. JUDGING BY THE RECORD NUMBER OF EFP ISSUANCE DURING LAST MONTH OF APRIL AT 385.75 MILLION OZ AND THE TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES, THE CONSTANT RAIDS, LIKE YESTERDAY ARE NOW BEING CALLED UPON BY OUR BANKER FRIENDS IN AN ATTEMPT TO SHAKE AS MANY SILVER LEAVES FROM THE SILVER TREE AS POSSIBLE AND JUDGING BY THE RESULTS TO YESTERDAYS ACTION THEY WERE NOT AT ALL SUCCESSFUL.
RESULT: A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 5 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING YESTERDAY. BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER STRONG SIZED 943 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR APRIL, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.
(report Harvey)
.
2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report
(Harvey)
2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore
(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge
and in NY: Bloomberg
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed UP 0.51 points or .02% /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 186.44 points or 0.60% / The Nikkei closed DOWN 42.03 POINTS OR 0.18% /Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .65% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.3686/Oil UP to 72.42 dollars per barrel for WTI and 79.58 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN. ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.3688 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3523/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING MUCH STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE A FULL TRADE WAR IS BEGINNING/
/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
i)North Korea/South Korea/USA
b) REPORT ON JAPAN
3 c CHINA
i)Big news overnight: China unexpected slashes auto tariffs to 15% and auto parts to 6%. China now waits for the USA to overturn ZTE penalties
( zerohedge)
ii)Trump back down on learning that ZTE would fail if sanctions continue. If agrees to drop ZTE sanctions if China agrees to a fine and a management shakeup
( zerohedge)
4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
i)The most important chart to watch: the 10 yr Italian bond yield:
( zerohedge)
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
Iran/Syria/Russia
( zerohedge)
6 .GLOBAL ISSUES
Canada’s Brookfield has not forgot its roots and is now buying assets in Brazil hand over fist as they sense blood in the streets
( zero hedge)
7. OIL ISSUES
8. EMERGING MARKET
After Trump initiated sanctions against Venezuela and Maduro on Friday due to the sham elections, Venezuela returned Trump the favour by expelling its top USA diplomat
( zerohedge)
9. PHYSICAL MARKETS
ii)London’;s financial times, Prasad warns investors that the dollar supremacy is waning( Prasad/London’s financial times)
iii)Bloomberg suggests not to believe that 80 dollar oil is here to stay…the forward price of oil is being bet very heavily and the that price is around the mid 60’s
( Bloomberg/GATA)
( JSKim/GATA)
v)Ronan Manly highlights the movement of gold into China, Russia and Switzerland and concludes that gold demand is high. I can see it through demand at the both of comex and London
( Ronan Manly/Bullionstar)
vi)Lawrie Williams, of Sharp’s Pixley discusses movement of gold into and out of the UK. As expected there is huge movement into Switzerland and Mainland China (Shanghai) but also Turkey and the uAE are big receivers of this UK exportation of gold.
(courtesy Lawrie Williams/Sharp’s Pixley)
10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silveri)
i)MARKET DATA
iv)SWAMP STORIES
Trading Volumes on the COMEX
PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY: 318,294 contracts
CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY: 390,227 contracts
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
And now for the wild silver comex results.
Total silver OI FELL BY A TINY SIZED 368 CONTRACTS FROM 200,264 DOWN TO 199,896 (AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) DESPITE THE 5 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING/ FRIDAY. SINCE WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY. WE WERE INFORMED THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED 943 EFP CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR JULY AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS. THESE EFPS WERE ISSUED TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 943. ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 779 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A 368 CONTRACT LOSS AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 943 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 575 CONTRACTS
AMOUNT STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX
We are now in the active delivery month of MAY and here the front month FELL BY 14 contracts FALLING TO 172 contracts. We had 27 notices filed upon yesterday so we SURPRISINGLY GAINED 13 contracts or 65,000 additional ounces will stand for delivery in this active delivery month of May AS SOMEBODY AGAIN WAS DESPERATE FOR PHYSICAL SILVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND..
June saw a LOSS of 8 contracts to stand at 720. The next big delivery month for silver is July and here the OI LOST 1089 contracts DOWN to 136,824. The next active delivery month after July for silver is September and here the OI ROSE by 856 contracts UP to 28,397
We had 13 notice(s) filed for 65,000 OZ for the MAY 2018 contract for silver
INITIAL standings for MAY/GOLD
MAY 22/2018.
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz |
nil OZ
|
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz | NIL oz |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | nil OZ |
| No of oz served (contracts) today |
35 notice(s)
3500 OZ
|
| No of oz to be served (notices) |
57 contracts
(5700 oz)
|
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month |
685 notices
68500 OZ
2.130 TONNES
|
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | xxx oz |
For MAY:
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 35 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 19 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAY. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (685) x 100 oz or 68500 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY. (92 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (35 x 100 oz per contract) equals 74,200 oz, the number of ounces standing in this active month of APRIL (2.307 tonnes)
Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAY contract month:
No of notices served (685 x 100 oz) + {(92)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (35 x 100 oz )which equals 74,200 oz standing in this active delivery month of MAY . THERE ARE 9.0356 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY SO FAR.
WE GAINED 600 OZ OF GOLD (6 CONTRACTS) STANDING IN THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY
IN THE LAST 18 MONTHS 73 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.
end
And now for silver
AND NOW THE APRIL DELIVERY MONTH
MAY INITIAL standings/SILVER
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | nil oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory |
29,901.510 oz
CNT
|
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory |
nil
oz
|
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory |
1,395,378.741
oz
JPMorgan
CNT
|
| No of oz served today (contracts) |
13
CONTRACT(S)
(65,000 OZ)
|
| No of oz to be served (notices) |
159 contracts
(795,000 oz)
|
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 6130 contracts
(30,650,000 oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things
i
total dealer deposits: nil oz
we had 2 deposits into the customer account
i) Into JPMorgan: 519,563.748 oz
*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.
JPMorgan now has 140 million oz of total silver inventory or 52.3% of all official comex silver. (140 million/268 million)
ii) Into CNT: 871,689.193 oz
total customer deposits today: 1,395,378.741 oz
we had 1 withdrawals from the customer account;
i) out of CNT: 29,901.510 oz
total withdrawals; 29,901.510 oz
we had 0 adjustments
total dealer silver: 69.156 million
total dealer + customer silver: 268.963 million oz
The total number of notices filed today for the MAY. contract month is represented by 13 contract(s) FOR 65,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 6130 x 5,000 oz = 30,650,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY. (172) and the number of notices served upon today (13 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
.
Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the MAY contract month: 6130(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAY(172) -number of notices served upon today (13)x 5000 oz equals 31,445,000 oz of silver standing for the MAY contract month
WE GAINED 13 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 65,000 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS SOMEBODY WAS IN URGENT NEED OF PHYSICAL SILVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 74,246 CONTRACTS
CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 69,426 CONTRACTS
YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 69,426 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO 347 MILLION OZ OR 49.43% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER
COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
end
NPV for Sprott
1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -2.04% (MAY22/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.39% to NAV (MAY 22/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -2.04%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ territory at -0.39%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail but being rescued by Sprott.
Sprott WINS hostile 3.1 billion bid to take over Central Fund of Canada
(courtesy Sprott/GATA)
3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA): NAV FALLS TO -2.22%: NAV 13.45/TRADING 13.17//DISCOUNT 2.22.
END
And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/
MAY 22/WITH GOLD UP $1.05/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.04 TONNES
MAY 21/WITH GOLD DOWN 50 CENTS/A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY/A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.24 TONNES FORM GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.04 TONNES
MAY 18/WITH GOLD UP $1.80/A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ A DEPOSIT OF 9.11 TONNES INTO GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.28 TONNES/
GLD WAS ONE MASSIVE FRAUD
May 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.75/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.17 TONNES
MAY 16./WITH GOLD UP $1.05: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.17 TONNES
MAY 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $27.35, THE CROOKS WITHDREW 10 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD WHICH WAS USED IN THE RAID TODAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.17 TONNES
MAY 14/ WITH GOLD DOWN $2.35: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 4.68 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD and then a withdrawal of 1.48 tonnes /INVENTORY RESTS AT 866.17
A net gain of 3.2 tonnes of gold.
MAY 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.75/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.96 TONNES/
MAY 10/WITH GOLD UP $9.60/A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.96 TONNES/SUCH CROOKS
MAY 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.55/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.13 TONNES
MAY 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.10/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.13 TONNES
MAY 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.55/ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.13 TONNES
MAY 4/WITH GOLD UP $2.05/A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.13 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.60 TONNES
MAY 3/WITH GOLD UP $7.05/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 866.77 TONNES
MAY 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.15/ A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.43 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 866.77 TONNES
MAY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.15/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.20 TONNES
APRIL 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.05/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.20 TONNES.
APRIL 27./WITH GOLD UP $5.90/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.20 TONNES/
APRIL 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.20 TONNES
APRIL 25/AFTER 9 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF NO MOVEMENT OF GOLD INTO OUT OF THE GLD, WE HAD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.31 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.20 TONNES.
APRIL 24./WITH GOLD UP $9.90, WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES/
APRIL 23.2018/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.00/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES.
APRIL 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.20: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES
APRIL 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.25: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES/
APRIL 18/WITH GOLD UP $3.65: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
MAY 22/2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 862.04 tonnes
*IN LAST 386 TRADING DAYS: 78.97 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 336 TRADING DAYS: A NET 77.33 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO GLD INVENTORY.
end
Now the SLV Inventory/
MAY 22/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.003 MILLION OZ/
MAY 21/ WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.003 MILLION OZ/
MAY 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A WITHDRAWAL OF 942,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.003 MILLION OZ/
May 17/WITH GOLD UP 6 CENTS/A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 471,000 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.945 MILLION OZ/
MAY 16./WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS/A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.883 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.474 MILLION OZ
MAY 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS, NO CHANGES AT THE SLV; THE CROOKS COULD NOT BORROW ANY SILVER BECAUSE THERE IS NONE: INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.591 MILLION OZ
MAY 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS/A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A WITHDRAWAL OF 858,000 FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.591 MILLION OZ/
MAY 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS/THE CROOKS WITHDREW A MONSTROUS 2.824 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.439 MILLION OZ/
MAY 10/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 323.263 MILLION OZ/
MAY 9/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 323.263 MILLION OZ/
MAY 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 323.263 MILLION OZ.
MAY 7/WITH SILVER FLAT: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 942,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 323.263 MILLION OZ/
MAY4/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS/A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A DEPOSIT OF 1.224 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.205 MILLION OZ/
MAY 2/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS/A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 6.082 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.981 MILLION OZ/
MAY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.899 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.899 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.899 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENT/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316,899 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 25./WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.899 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 24./WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS/SOMETHING SPOOKED OUR CROOKS TO ADD SOME PAPER SILVER: A DEPOSIT OF 1.601 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.899 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 23.2018/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS, ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL FROM THE SLV INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.413 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.298 MILLION OZ.
APRIL 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.13 MILLION OZ//SLV RESTS TONIGHT AT 316.711 MILLION OZ/
APRIL 19/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: WE HAD A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.355 MILLION OZ/ MAKES ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE!!/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.841 MILLION OZ
APRIL 18/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ
MAY 22/2018:
Inventory 321.003 million oz
end
6 Month MM GOFO 2.07/ and libor 6 month duration 2.50
Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:
G0FO+ 2.07%
libor 2.50 FOR 6 MONTHS/
GOLD LENDING RATE: .43%
XXXXXXXX
12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.77%
LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.58
GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE
GOLD LENDING RATE = +.19
end
end
Major gold/silver trading /commentaries for TUESDAY
GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.
GOLD/SILVER
Gold 2048: The Next 30 Years For Gold
Gold 2048: The Next 30 Years For Gold
Gold 2048 is an interesting and comprehensive new report from the World Gold Councilwhich brings together industry-leading experts from across the globe to analyse how the gold market is set to evolve in the next 30 years.
Key insights from authors such as George Magnus, senior economist; Rick Lacaille, Global Chief Investment Officer of State Street Global Advisors; and Michelle Ash, Chief Innovation Officer at Barrick Gold include:
- What does the future hold for gold?
- “Gold will be a refuge for people in times of crisis as it has always been” – Magnus
- The expanding middle class in China and India, combined with broader economic growth, will have a significant impact on gold demand.
- Use of gold across energy, healthcare and technology is changing rapidly. Gold’s position as a material of choice is expected to continue and evolve over the coming decades.
- Mobile apps for gold investment, which allow individuals to buy, sell, invest and gift gold will develop rapidly in India and China.
- Environmental, social and governance issues will play an increasing role in re-shaping mining production methods.
- The gold mining industry will have to grapple with the challenge of producing similar levels of gold over the next 30 years to match the volume it has historically delivered.
Listen on SoundCloud , Blubrry & iTunes. Watch on YouTube below
Gold 2048 full report and related reports are published by the World Gold Council (May, 2018) and available to subscribers here
News and Commentary
Gold prices steady on weaker dollar (Reuters.com)
Spec Funds Exit Gold Amid Strong Dollar and Lack of Fear (Bloomberg.com)
Gold Prices Drift Lower as Global Trade Remains in Focus (Investing.com)
Stocks and dollar rise as U.S.-China trade war put ‘on hold’ (Reuters.com)
Source: Coinnews.net
Perth Mint Gold and Silver Bullion Sales Retreat in April (CoinNews.net)
Gold promotions impede exposure of manipulation (SmartKnowledgeu.com)
Corporate Bonds Sink Fast in One of Worst Tumbles Since 2000 (Bloomberg.com)
As Brent Oil Reaches $80. The Big Rally Is in Forward Prices (Bloomberg.com)
Best-case scenario is the U.S. trade gap with China will get worse (MarketWatch.com)
Gold Prices (LBMA AM)
21 May: USD 1,285.85, GBP 959.24 & EUR 1,095.67 per ounce
18 May: USD 1,287.20, GBP 954.20 & EUR 1,091.16 per ounce
17 May: USD 1,288.85, GBP 952.07 & EUR 1,090.50 per ounce
16 May: USD 1,291.75, GBP 958.61 & EUR 1,093.60 per ounce
15 May: USD 1,310.05, GBP 966.42 & EUR 1,098.35 per ounce
14 May: USD 1,320.70, GBP 972.30 & EUR 1,101.86 per ounce
11 May: USD 1,324.80, GBP 978.23 & EUR 1,110.45 per ounce
Silver Prices (LBMA)
21 May: USD 16.34, GBP 12.19 & EUR 13.91 per ounce
18 May: USD 16.39, GBP 12.16 & EUR 13.92 per ounce
17 May: USD 16.39, GBP 12.14 & EUR 13.90 per ounce
16 May: USD 16.26, GBP 12.07 & EUR 13.79 per ounce
15 May: USD 16.41, GBP 12.12 & EUR 13.77 per ounce
14 May: USD 16.65, GBP 12.25 & EUR 13.89 per ounce
11 May: USD 16.76, GBP 12.35 & EUR 14.04 per ounce
Recent Market Updates
– Beware “Snollygosters” and the Empty Promises of Pathological Politicians
– US 10-Year Surges, Emerging Markets Implode…Where Next for Gold?
– Welsh Gold Being Hyped Due To The Royal Wedding?
– Oil Price Is Going To Keep Rising And Inflation Is Coming
– Gold Price Manipulation – A Comprehensive Guide By James Rickards
– EU ‘Nightmare Scenario’ As Popular Anti-Euro and Anti-EU Government Takes Power In Italy
– “Oil price highest in 3 years, gold ready to follow”, by Daniel March
– Gold Mining Supply Globally Looks Set To Decline
– Gold Bullion Demand In Iran May Surge On Trump Sanctions
– “Money Is Gold — and Nothing Else”
– U.K. Home Prices Plunge 3.1% In April – Largest Monthly Drop Since Financial Crisis In 2011
– Weekly Gold Update – Gold In Dollars Lower Despite Poor US Jobs and Other Data
– Own Some Gold and Avoid Overvalued Assets
Andrew Maguire’s Kinesis money which is a “bitcoin” but backed 100% by allocated gold and silver is set to go.
it think it would be a great idea to look at this!
please read at: https://kinesis.money/#/
(Andrew Maguire)
|
2:57 PM (1 hour ago) | ||
|
|||
Harvey
Here It is my friend! https://kinesis.money/#/ Please let everyone know.
Let catch up on Monday if you have time. We have billions in the hopper ready to be allocated on the 1st day of trading. The paper market days are over.
Warm regards
Andy
Gold frequently disappoints Jim Grant, but does he understand why?
Submitted by cpowell on Sat, 2018-05-19 14:24. Section: Daily Dispatches
10:46a ET Saturday, May 19, 2018
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Interviewed this week by the TF Metals Report’s Craig Hemke for the “Ask the Expert” segment at Sprott Money News, James Grant of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, an advocate of gold, said he doubts that central banks intervene against the price of the monetary metal. Grant’s comments on gold in the interview begin at the 13:20 mark here:
https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/ask-the-expert-james-grant-may-2018.htm…
Grant’s comments were disappointing first for their inconsistency and second for indicating ignorance of basic details.
The gold price, Grant said in the interview, is the reciprocal of faith in central banking, and he recalled that former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker once remarked to him that, for this very reason, he was always rooting for the gold price to go down.
But Grant added that he doesn’t think central banks even care about gold anymore, and that the risk central banks would assume in intervening against gold would be much worse than any benefit they would get from it. He said that as an investor in gold he is always expecting a higher price and is frequently disappointed.
Grant is generally acknowledged to be a brilliant guy, so might there be powerful reasons for the gold price not to be performing up to his expectations?
The interview suggests that Grant’s knowledge of Volcker does not extend to the assertion made by the former Fed chairman in his memoirs in 2004 — that central banks should have intervened against gold during an international currency revaluation in 1973:
Nor does Grant’s knowledge of Volcker seem to extend to the comment he made to the German financial journalist Lars Schall in 2012, defending central bank intervention against gold at “critical” points:
http://www.gata.org/node/10923
But Volcker’s endorsement of central bank intervention against gold is just a small part of the modern history of such intervention.
For example, if, as Grant believes, central banks don’t care about gold, why is their agent, the Bank for International Settlements, maintaining a huge position in gold swaps and derivatives, as recorded, if obscurely, in the bank’s monthly reports, and why does the bank refuse to explain the purposes of its position?:
http://www.gata.org/node/18228
http://www.gata.org/node/17793
If central banks don’t care about gold, why is the Banque de France, according to its director of market operations, secretly trading gold for its own account and the account of other central banks “nearly on a daily basis”?:
http://www.gata.org/node/13373
If central banks don’t care about gold, why does CME Group, operator of the major futures exchanges in the United States, give them discounts of 15 percent in their secret trading of gold and silver futures?:
http://www.gata.org/node/17976
GATA’s documentation file contains much more official acknowledgment of the largely surreptitious involvement of central banks in the gold market. Most of this is not mere “conspiracy theory” but ordinary official public record from government’s own archives and statements from central bankers, even if those statements were made when central bankers thought that only their colleagues were listening:
http://www.gata.org/taxonomy/term/21
A few years ago your secretary/treasurer and Grant both happened to be making presentations in New York at a meeting of the Committee for Monetary Research and Education. Your secretary/treasurer remarked that since Grant is among the exceedingly few gold advocates who is frequently interviewed by mainstream financial news organizations and since central banks had arranged things so that there were hardly any interest rates left for Grant’s newsletter to observe, he might be more helpful to gold’s cause and the cause of free markets if he would study the documentation of central banking’s gold price suppression scheme and then remark on it publicly.
Of course gold price suppression is not a topic that facilitates invitations to appear on financial news programs on television, which seems to be a big part of Grant’s work. (Indeed, your secretary/treasurer doesn’t even get invited to CMRE meetings anymore.) But if Grant continues to be frequently disappointed in the gold price, he might find some consolation in better understanding why gold is disappointing him.
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
END
London’;s financial times, Prasad warns investors that the dollar supremacy is waning
(courtesy Prasad/London’s financial times)
Eswar Prasad: America, beware — Dollar supremacy is not forever
Submitted by cpowell on Sun, 2018-05-20 15:00. Section: Daily Dispatches
By Eswar Prasad
Financial Times, London
Sunday, May 20, 2018
https://www.ft.com/content/3d4d1190-5931-11e8-806a-808d194ffb75
The dollar reigns supreme in global finance. It accounts for a dominant share of international financial transactions and is the ultimate safe haven currency. But the US currency’s supremacy cannot be taken for granted. President Donald Trump may be sowing the seeds of its demise.
Mr. Trump has often called for a weaker dollar, apparently to counter other countries that he claims are taking unfair advantage of the US by weakening their currencies to boost exports. Talk is cheap, however, and such statements by themselves will hardly derail the dollar. The real damage to its standing is more insidious and comes from policies that are eroding America’s fiscal stability, its trustworthiness and the strength of its institutions.
… …
In times of financial turmoil — including the global financial crisis, which originated in the United States — panicky investors flood into U.S. bond markets. No doubt the sheer size of the American government and corporate bond markets is a key factor. But there is something subtler and more important that accounts for the dollar’s status.
It comes down to trust. Flows into and out of currency and equity markets, where people make consequential financial decisions, show how trust matters even in seemingly cold-hearted and dispassionate decision-making.
The institutions that engender and maintain the trust of both domestic and foreign investors include an open and transparent system of democratic government with checks and balances. This needs to be underpinned by a central bank free from direct political interference and the rule of law administered by an independent judiciary.
Trust in U.S. institutions is why, despite the prospect of rising government debt levels and the economic uncertainty unleashed by Mr. Trump, the dollar remains strong. But this strength could prove fleeting. At present, most international financial transactions are denominated and settled in dollars and often through American financial institutions. This would change rapidly if investors believed that reckless fiscal policies could heighten volatility and erode the dollar’s value.
As it is, the falling cost of transacting in other currencies and the rise of emerging market currencies such as China’s renminbi are already reducing the dollar’s role in denominating and settling cross-border transactions. China and South Korea are conducting trade using their own currencies rather than relying on the dollar as a “vehicle currency.” The logic for denominating in dollars virtually all contracts for oil and other commodities is waning.
Other forces are at work. Under Mr. Trump, the United States is increasingly seen as an unreliable partner in trade, military, and other agreements. This has damaged its international credibility and sown fear that Mr. Trump could wield the dollar as a weapon of control over other countries. Consequently, China and Russia, among others, are setting up their own payment systems and channels that bypass the United States.
Perhaps, even if the dollar wanes as the dominant medium of exchange, it will remain unparalleled as a safe haven. Foreign investors, including central banks, have shown no signs of forsaking their dollar assets.
U.S. institutions have indeed withstood the test of time, but taking them for granted could prove costly. When the American political system has come under severe stress in the past, a free press, backed by an independent judiciary, has functioned as a correcting mechanism. All these institutions are under attack from Mr. Trump, abetted by a Republican-dominated Congress.
The dollar’s supremacy depends not just on America’s economic or military strength, but also on the durability and strength of its institutions. It is precisely these that the Trump administration is eroding — something even his devoted base might one day come to rue.
—–
The writer is a professor at Cornell University and senior fellow at Brookings.
* * *
END
Bloomberg suggests not to believe that 80 dollar oil is here to stay…the forward price of oil is being bet very heavily and the that price is around the mid 60’s
(courtesy Bloomberg/GATA)
Forget about oil at $80, because the big rally is in forward prices
Submitted by cpowell on Mon, 2018-05-21 13:06. Section: Daily Dispatches
By Catherine Ngai, Alex Longley, and Javier Blas
Bloomberg News
Monday, May 21, 2018
Brent crude oil grabbed all the attention after spot prices hit $80 a barrel last week. And yet, almost unnoticed, a perhaps more important rally has occurred in the obscure world of forward prices, with some investors betting the “lower for longer” price mantra is all but over.
The five-year Brent forward price, which has been largely anchored in a tight $55-to-$60 a barrel range for the past year and a half, has jumped over the last month, outpacing the gains in spot prices. It closed at $63.50 on Friday.
“For the first time since December 2015, the back end of the curve has been leading the complex higher,” said Yasser Elguindi, a market strategist at Energy Aspects Ltd. in New York. “It seems that the investor community is finally calling into question the ‘lower for longer’ thesis.” …
… For the remainder of the report:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-21/forget-about-oil-at-8…
END
JS Kim notes the huge manipulation of gold/silver but asks writers not to promote these metals by saying are are imminently about to explode
(courtesy JSKim/GATA)
j.S. Kim: Gold promotions impede exposure of manipulation
Submitted by cpowell on Mon, 2018-05-21 18:18. Section: Daily Dispatches
2:20p ET Monday, May 21, 2018
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Promotions for gold and silver that scream that prices are going to explode imminently are hurting efforts to tell the world the truth about the monetary metals and especially about the manipulation of their markets by central banks, J.S. Kim of Smart Knowledge U writes today.
Such promotions, Kim writes, “perpetually damage the truth movement in gold and silver to the point where one can take GATA-discovered documents whereby bankers make admissions of manipulating gold prices lower, show them to a skeptic, and still have a skeptic dismiss them as rubbish.”
Kim’s commentary is headlined “Why the ‘Gold is Ready to Explode Higher Any Day’ Narrative Hurts the Truth Movement about Gold” and it’s posted at Smart Knowledge U here:
https://smartknowledgeu.com/blog/2018/general-3/why-the-gold-is-ready-to…
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
END
Ronan Manly highlights the movement of gold into China, Russia and Switzerland and concludes that gold demand is high. I can see it through demand at the both of comex and London
(courtesy Ronan Manly/Bullionstar)
Bullion Star’s gold market charts suggest demand remains strong
Submitted by cpowell on Tue, 2018-05-22 00:48. Section: Daily Dispatches
8:50p ET Monday, May 21, 2018
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Bullion Star’s latest gold market charts suggest that despite gold’s recent decline in U.S. dollars, gold demand remains strong in China, Russia, and Switzerland. Bullion Star’s report is headlined “Gold Market Charts — May 2018” and it’s posted here:
https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/gold-market-charts/gold-market-charts-…
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
END
Lawrie Williams, of Sharp’s Pixley discusses movement of gold into and out of the UK. As expected there is huge movement into Switzerland and Mainland China (Shanghai) but also Turkey and the uAE are big receivers of this UK exportation of gold.
(courtesy Lawrie Williams/Sharp’s Pixley)
LAWRIE WILLIAMS: UK Gold Imports and Exports – Some surprises
With the release of the latest gold import and export figures, the UK demonstrated its importance as a key middle player in global gold trade. While imports of 55.2 tonnes in March (around 21% of world new mined gold output) showed few surprises being largely sourced from major producing nations. The USA, the world’s fourth largest gold producer, accounted for over 40% of the country’s gold imports, while Canada (the World No. 5 nowadays) provided 27.5%. The world’s Nos. 2 and 3 gold miners – Australia and Russia – do not trade much, if any, gold through the UK – the former for geographical reasons and the latter because it takes most of its newly mined gold into its own gold reserves.
But the export distribution is perhaps more interesting. In March the U.K. exported around 10 more tonnes of gold than it imported. Unsurprisingly the lion’s share (just under half) was to Switzerland where the refiners specialise in re-refining London good delivery gold bars into the smaller, and slightly higher tenor, bars and wafers in demand in the world’s largest markets in Asia. Perhaps more interesting however in terms of global gold trade was the export of 16.1 tonnes (24.6%) direct to mainland China (and only 0.5 tonnes to Hong Kong). As we have often pointed out the known gold exports to mainland China (mostly from Hong Kong and Switzerland) tend to be comfortably in excess of the figures assessed by the major precious metals consultancies as Chinese consumption, and the high UK export figure, although well below the amounts from Switzerland and Hong Kong, serves to emphasise this point. The March gold export figures from the U.K. are neatly set out in the bar chart below from Nick Laird’s excellent http://www.goldchartsrus.com service
The other points of particular interest in the U.K.’s gold export figures for March are the relatively high numbers for Turkey (16%) and the United Arab Emirates (9%). Turkey in particular is playing a dangerous geopolitical game in respect of its relationships with Russia and the U.S. and its military incursions into Syria where it has been targeting Kurdish held areas close to the Turkish border. The Kurdish militias have been strong supporters of the U.S. drive against ISIL and the Turkish actions may not be seen as a positive development by the U.S.
Indeed it is now reported that Turkey has been repatriating its gold held in the U.S. which could be a sign of increasing tensions between the nations as Turkey perhaps allies itself closer with Russia. The repatriation has been reported as due to increased geopolitical tensions involving the nation. Turkey’s President Erdogan has also signalled reduced dependence on the dollar in its reserves and has advocated that international loans should be designated in gold rather than dollars.
According to IMF figures, Turkey is the world’s 11th largest holder of gold in its forex reserves.
Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results, important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST
i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP 6.3686 /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 0.51 POINTS OR 0.02% / HANG SANG CLOSED UP 42.03 POINTS OR 0.18%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 42.03 POINTS OR 0.40% / /USA: YEN RISES TO 110.93/
3. Europe stocks OPENED RED /USA dollar index FALLS TO 93.41/Euro RISES TO 1.1805
3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO . +.06/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 110.64/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD FINALLY IN THE POSITIVE/BANK OF JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR YIELD CURVE AS THEY PURCHASE ALL BONDS TO GET TO ZERO RATE!!
3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning
3e WTI:: 72.42 and Brent: 79.58
3f Gold UP/Yen UP
3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.
3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.56%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 2.30% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.46%
3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 4.39?????????????????
3k Gold at $1294.75 silver at:16.60 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50
3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 17/100 in roubles/dollar) 61.39
3m oil into the 71 dollar handle for WTI and 79 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 110.93 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9953 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1754 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017
3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to +0.560%
The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.
4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 3.07% early this morning (THIS IS DEADLY TO ALL MARKETS). Thirty year rate at 3.21%
5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.
(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)
US Futures Jump Amid Easing China Trade War; Dollar, Italian Yields Slide
With much of Europe coming back from Whit Monday holiday, the much more liquid market focused on the latest news in the easing US-China trade war and this morning’s announcement by Beijing to cut import duties on autos to 15%, with the resulting risk-on mood sending U.S. equity futures back to yesterday’s session highs, while Asian and European stocks were mixed.
It wasn’t just China’s auto import tariffs however: as the WSJ reports, US and China also reached a broad outline for settling the lingering ZTE issue, in which the export ban could be removed, while the company would have to make board and management changes. Furthermore, other source reports noted that the side were nearing an agreement that would remove a ban on ZTE and would include China pledge to remove tariffs on, as well as increase imports of
US agricultural products.
Yet despite the good trade news, broader European stocks were mixed, and turned modestly negative, driven by declines in the health care sector and utilities after both were downgraded by Deutsche Bank, pushing the Stoxx Europe 600 Index down 0.1% to session low, erasing earlier gains with 11 of 19 industry groups declining. Earlier, Deutsche Bank downgraded Europe’s energy sector on risks in oil price development in coming months, and also cut utility stocks as further upside to sector’s price relative implied by PMI forecast only marginal. Meanwhile, the European bank sector outperformed as the bund/BTP spread snapped 11bps tighter (see below), while European automakers gapped higher on China’s tariff cut.
Earlier, Asian stocks traded mostly subdued amid holiday closures and a lack of fresh catalysts, which saw sentiment wane from the prior day’s trade-related gains that boosted the DJIA above the 25k level for the first time since March. Australia’s ASX 200 weakened -0.7% amid broad losses across all sectors and with telecoms underperforming on continued woes for Telstra shares, while Healthscope was the worst performer after it flagged impairment charges. Nikkei 225 -0.2% traded indecisive as exporters suffered from a firmer currency and with Sony shares pressured after its 3-year strategy and targets was met with disappointment, while the unchanged Shanghai Composite was subdued following a continued net neutral liquidity position by the PBoC and with market closures in both Hong Kong and South
Korea adding to the humdrum tone, although baby-related stocks were underpinned on prospects China could relax its child-policy restrictions.
After hitting a 5 month high on Monday, the USD continued to weaken across the G-10 space forming a distorted head and shoulders topping formation, even as rangebound 10Y yields rose to session highs of 3.078%.
The second consecutive slide in the USD, at least for now, meant some breathing space for Emerging Markets, which have been crushed over the past month, while the month-long slide in EM local-currency government bonds has widened the yield spread they offer over their developed-market counterparts: “What we see is attractive real yields in the emerging markets, coupled with a good underlying fundamental growth,” said Richard Lawrence, SVP at Brandywine Global. However, it remains to be seen if the recent dollar weakness will translate into an EM buying spree. For now, the EM FX screen is mostly green with the exception of Turkey (thanks Mark Cudmore).
Meanwhile, in Developed Markets, the euro rose a second day as shorts trimmed exposure amid a rebound in Italian bonds while the Dollar Index retreated after it failed to rise Monday above a strong technical resistance level; EURUSD gained as much as 0.3% to touch 1.1830 high, versus 1.1757 day low, although for now it remains in sell-the-rally mode as sizable offers extend all way to 1.1850, a Europe-based trader told Bloomberg.
The pound looked to erase its Monday drop as comments from Bank of England officials during a testimony in front of lawmakers struck a more hawkish tone than investors were positioned for. More notably, Bloomberg notes that as soon as London stepped in, there was a familiar leveraged bid for the dollar that sent its major peers to fresh day lows. However, the market reversed course as Italian bonds rallied after yields touched the highest in more than a year on Monday.
Elsewhere in global macro, GBPUSD rose as much as 0.5% to touch 1.3492 day high, after BOE’s Gertjan Vlieghe, a dove, said he sees one or two rate hikes a year for the next three amid evidence that a tight labor market is boosting wage growth. At the same time, the USDJPY steadied around 111.00 vs day-low of 110.84 as Treasury yields rose; pair snapped its 6-day advance despite comments from BOJ Governor Kuroda the central bank won’t exit its current monetary policy before 2% inflation is reached. In Africa, the USDZAR was heavily offered as EMFX remains highly reactive to USD moves.
In the biggest news out of Europe, one day after a plunge in Italian bonds following the formation of the new 5-star/League government, BTPs bounced, retracing some of Monday’s panicky leg wider versus Germany as markets became somewhat more orderly as Germans returned from holiday. Italy 10-year yield dropped as much as 10bps, after touching 2.40% on Monday, while BTP yields were lower across the curve by 4-8bps.
Italy’s gain was Germany’s and America’s loss as Bunds were under sharp pressure, while also dragging Treasuries and gilts lower, as EGB spreads erased most of the latest spillover move; Bund spreads vs Spain and France also tightened, by 7bps and 3bps, respectively. Monday’s move was the first clear sign of spillover impacting these spreads and has promptly retracted.
Still as Bloomberg’s Heather Burke notes, “Italy’s troubles aren’t all over: credit default swaps have blown out and small caps may continue to face greater pressure. Plus, investors are worried that mini-BOTs could succeed at addressing Italy’s slow growth, undermining the euro project.”
Commodity prices are broadly higher in overnight trade in which crude extended on gains boosted by a softer greenback with geopolitics also remaining at the fore after US Secretary of State Pompeo warned of the severity for Iran sanctions. The US also imposed sanctions on Venezuela following the election last weekend, stirring further fears over supply disruption in the region. Elsewhere, gold prices are buoyed as the dollar retreats from YTD highs. Elsewhere, London copper rise for the second day with prices underpinned as the US-Sino trade war fears fade (for now).
In other trade/geopol overnight news, US Trade Representative Lighthizer said on Monday that he still sees the need of real work to achieve changes in China and noted that intellectual property issues are more important than the trade gap. The US Commerce Department announced it will impose anti-dumping rate of 200% and countervailing rate of 256% on some cold-rolled steel from Vietnam produced using substrate originating from China. Japan and Russia notified the WTO of potential tariff retaliation for US President Trump’s steel and aluminium tariffs. Japan reportedly may impose USD 440mln and Russia may impose USD 538mln in tariffs on US goods.
Italy’s M5S leader Di Maio said that Conte will be premier of the government. In related news, Italy’s President Mattarella reportedly expressed concerns with the 5SM/League fiscal plan and is said to need time to mull the PM choice. Furthermore, Mattarella was reported to demand leaders of Italy’s Lower and Upper House to attend a meeting on Tuesday. There were reports that President Mattarella could pick the new Premier on Wednesday or Thursday.
In overnight central banking news:
- BoJ Governor Kuroda said will take into consideration side effects including impact on financial institutions when guiding monetary policy currently, while he added that he is not seeing conditions rife to study timing of exit and that the BoJ will not exit easy policy prior to reaching 2% price target.
- BoE’s Vlieghe (Neutral) said his central projection will require one or two quarter point rate increases per year over the three-year forecast period. This is a more aggressive path than the BoE’s conditioning path of rates derived from yields in the May QIR which assumes just under three quarter point rate increases over the three-year forecast period.
- BoE’s Carney (Neutral) reiterated that Q1 slowdown is likely due to idiosyncratic and temporary factors, but it is right to with for more data.
- ECB’s Liikanen (Neutral) has expectation of rates to stay low for an extended period after QE ends.
- Fed’s Kashkari (non-voter, dove) said wage growth has not picked up and that there may still be slack in the jobs market, while he also suggested the need to allow the economy to continue strengthening.
- ECB is purchasing the same amount of Italian government bonds under QE programme, as according to traders at primary dealers.
There is little on the calendar today, with the only expected data the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey at 10am ET. AutoZone, Eaton Vance, TJX, and Intuit are among companies reporting earnings. Attention will be focused on the ongoing trade talks, the South Korean president’s visit to D.C., and oil’s continued climb amid a new wave of U.S. sanctions on Venezuela.
Bulletin Healdine Summary from RanSquawk
- China confirmed they are to cut car import tariffs to 15% (Prev. 25%) and car part import duty to 6%, which will take effect on July 1st
- TRY suffered an abrupt reversal to plumb fresh record lows against the dollar
- Looking ahead, highlights include UK/EU trade talks and US 2yr Note Auction
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2,737.75
- Brent futures up 0.4% to $79.50/bbl
- Gold spot up 0.1% to $1,293.91
- U.S. Dollar Index down 0.3% to 93.38
- STOXX Europe 600 up 0.07% to 396.16
- MXAP up 0.1% to 174.45
- MXAPJ up 0.2% to 569.13
- Nikkei down 0.2% to 22,960.34
- Topix down 0.2% to 1,809.57
- Hang Seng Index up 0.6% to 31,234.35
- Shanghai Composite up 0.02% to 3,214.35
- Sensex up 0.1% to 34,663.51
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.7% to 6,041.87
- Kospi up 0.2% to 2,465.57
- German 10Y yield rose 4.2 bps to 0.565%
- Euro up 0.2% to $1.1811
- Italian 10Y yield rose 15.9 bps to 2.127%
- Spanish 10Y yield fell 7.2 bps to 1.436%
Top Overnight News from Bloomberg
- China confirms it is cutting import taxes on autos to 15% from 25%
- WSJ: U.S. and China have agreed outline on a deal to settle dispute over ZTE, according to people familiar
- Dodd-Frank: House Repubicans to vote on Senate compromise as early as today; broader set of House-passed rollbacks will get a vote later this year
- Fed’s Kashkari: yield curve could invert by end of year; paying close attention to long-end of UST curve
- BOE’s Vlieghe: sees one or two 25bps rate hikes a year for the next three years
- President Donald Trump retreated from imposing tariffs on billions of dollars worth of Chinese goods because of White House discord over trade strategy and concern about harming negotiations with North Korea, according to people briefed on the administration’s deliberations
- Britain could be facing another vote in 2018 as Prime Minister Theresa May may be unable to find a way to navigate between those in her party who want Britain to leave the EU’s customs union and the majority in Parliament that wants the opposite
- French President Emmanuel Macron’s trip to Russia this week once threatened to split France from its European allies. Now it’s part of a wider European effort to tie President Vladimir Putin to the Iran nuclear accord
- The Italian government’s borrowing costs have surged to inauspicious territory as the nation is getting punished in the bond market over the incoming populist government coalition. Novice Prime Minister may face rival puppet-masters
- Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson has urged Theresa May not to contemplate calling another early election, after reports that members of parliament are preparing for a snap vote later this year due to Brexit turmoil
- Turkey is paying more than Senegal on its debt, even though it has a higher credit rating and its economy is 60 times bigger
- Fed’s Minneapolis President Kashkari says U.S. job creation despite lack of evidence that inflation is picking up is an argument for allowing the economy to continue to grow. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker says “in general, on average, the economy is just clicking along just fine”
- Confidence about the economic strength of Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic had helped mute the pain of dollar gains that battered their developing peers. But on Monday, Italy’s plans to embark on a populist fiscal path landed them among the biggest currency decliners in emerging markets
Asian stocks traded mostly subdued amid holiday closures and a lack of fresh catalysts, which saw sentiment wane from the prior day’s trade-related gains that boosted the DJIA above the 25k level for the first time since March. ASX 200 (-0.7%) weakened amid broad losses across all sectors and with telecoms underperforming on continued woes for Telstra shares, while Healthscope was the worst performer after it flagged impairment charges. Nikkei 225 (-0.2%) traded indecisive as exporters suffered from a firmer currency and with Sony shares pressured after its 3-year strategy and targets was met with disappointment, while Shanghai Comp. (flat) was subdued following a continued net neutral liquidity position by the PBoC and with market closures in both Hong Kong and South
Korea adding to the humdrum tone, although baby-related stocks were underpinned on prospects China could relax its child-policy restrictions. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lacklustre alongside an indecisive risk tone in Japan and with participants side-lined ahead of 20yr auction which eventually saw a mixed result, while a deluge of comments from BoJ Governor Kuroda also failed to spur price action as he kept to reiterations and suggested the BoJ is still far from an exit.
Top Asian News
- Singapore Bourse Sued by India Exchange in Futures Dispute
- Hyundai Motor Caves in to Elliott, Scraps $8.8 Billion Deal
- Hyflux Is Said to Weigh Court Protection for Creditor Talks
- Sony to Buy Out EMI Music Publishing for About $2 Billion
- Indonesia’s Stock Rout Claims Another Victim: The IPO Market
- Erdogan Imperils Turkey Rating as Bonds Sink Below Senegal’s
Major European equity bourses are trading flat as German traders return to their desks following a public holiday. The outperforming bourse is currently the IBEX (+0.6%), closely followed by the FTSE MIB (+0.4%) which is benefitting from some much desired political ‘stability’ following the confirmation of the name of the proposed next Premier, Giuseppe Conte; subject to approval from Mattarella. European automotive names have been boosted on the news that China is to cut their car import duties to 15% from 25% (Volkswagen (VOW3 GY) +1.0%, Daimler (DAI GY) +1.2%, BMW (BMW GY) +1.9%). In terms of sector specifics, France’s head of ARCEP saying he could be open to telecom sector consolidation has lead to strength for names such as Orange (ORA FP) +3.5%, Bouygues (EN FP) +3.6% and Iliad (ILD FP) +4.4%. In stock specific news IAG (IAG LN) is set to offer NOK 330/share for Norwegian Air, an acquisition amounting to EUR 1.52bln.
Top European News
- Deutsche Bank Unit Sells $600 Million Seadrill Claim in Days
- Italy Bonds Rise as Yields Retreat From the Highest Since 2017
- French Telecom Regulator Says He’s More Open to Mergers
- Could Britain Have an Election in 2018? It’s Not Impossible
In FX, there was more USD retracement from best levels for the index amidst a broad Usd pull-back vs counterparts that looks more technical than fundamental at this stage overall. The DXY is trying to stabilise after a dip below 93.300, but remains well off the 94.064 ytd peak set on Monday. GBP: Just shading the non-US dollars as top G10 performer after the first session of the BoE’s QIR testimony in front of the TSC featuring MPC member Vlieghe who delivered a more hawkish policy outlook than the mainstream with a preference for 1 to 2 quarter point hikes per annum over the 3 year forecast horizon (largely based on less slack in the UK economy). Cable extended recovery gains above 1.3400 in response and almost reached 1.3500 before losing momentum ahead of Governor Carney’s appearance. NZD/AUD/CAD: As noted, all gleaning more from the general Greenback retreat, with the Kiwi back above 0.6950 and Aud briefly revisiting 0.7600+ territory as the Loonie tested 1.2750 with oil prices providing another boost. EM: Consolidation, short-covering and position paring from arguably oversold levels have combined to lift beleaguered currencies from the depths, with the Zar and Mxn regaining various degrees of composure around 12.20 vs 12.69 and 19.74 vs 19.84 (and even high in some cases at worst). However, after a similar recovery rally the Try suffered an abrupt reversal to plumb fresh record lows vs. the dollar circa 4.63.
In commodities, prices are broadly higher during recent trade in which crude extended on gains boosted by a softer greenback with geopolitics also remaining at the fore after US Secretary of State Pompeo warned of the severity for Iran sanctions. The US also imposed sanctions on Venezuela following the election last weekend, stirring further fears over supply disruption in the region. Elsewhere, gold prices are buoyed as the dollar retreats from YTD highs. Elsewhere, London copper rise for the second day with prices underpinned as the US-Sino trade war fears fade (for now).
Looking at the day ahead, in the US the only release scheduled is the May Richmond Fed PMI. Politics should play a greater role with the next round of Brexit negotiations beginning in Brussels, and South Korean President Moon Jae-in due to visit Washington to meet President Trump, in part to discuss whether next month’s US / North Korea summit is still going ahead.
US Event Calendar
- 10am: Richmond Fed Manufact. Index, est. 10, prior -3
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
It’s certainly been a 24 hours of split trading with the split depending on whether your assets were more sensitive to hopes of a more positive outcome in the global trade war spat or more sensitive to a worsening Italian risk situation. Indeed Italian debt had what can only be called a “mini-shocker” yesterday after increased speculation about the so called issuance of “mini-BOTs” and warnings from Fitch on their debt path. However neither story was new news and the sell-off just seemed to be a building up of the pressure of these and other related issues over recent days.
2y yields underperformed (+16.8bps) versus 10yr (+15.7bps) and 30y yields (+10.9bps). Remarkably 2y yields are up 59.4bps since May 3rd and now the highest since July 2015. Over the same period 2y Bunds are -3.9bps lower for comparison. The 2y BTP/Bund spread is now at 88.1bps and approaching the 2017 high of 99bps. This was as low as 22bps back in February. 10 year Italian yields (2.371%) are now within a couple of basis points from their highest level since November 2014.
Overnight DB’s Clemente De Lucia and Mark Wall have published an update putting the current Italian risk in some perspective. They note that relative to 2011-2012 Italy has achieved some fundamental improvements. In particular 1) a move from current account deficit to surplus and 2) the terming out of debt. They also note that the Five Star-League final programme for government does not directly question Italy’s membership of the single currency. However, the proposed fiscal and structural policies, including the mini-BOT, are a challenge to EU rules and the Brussels orthodoxy. This means policy clash and uncertainty. If fully implemented, our economists think that Italy’s debt trajectory will no longer be downward sloping. So much depends on the new administration’s policy choices and their ability to pursue them due to the constraints from the President, the constitution, the parliamentary process and of course the markets and the EU. So lots of moving parts. In the report they note that the 2019 Budget is not due to be presented to Parliament until September 20th so plenty of time for markets to go through their whole range of emotions over Italian risk. See the note for more details.
Following on, Italy’s League Party leader Mr Salvini noted in a Facebook video that “we’ve swallowed too many yes sirs” and that Italy must have the freedom to say “no” to Paris, Berlin and Brussels. He added that “…enough is enough, cuts can kill, austerity can kill….and European limits can kill”. Elsewhere, Mr Salvini has confirmed that he has proposed Florence University law professor Giuseppe Conte to be Italy’s new Premier, while President Mattarella is expected to meet the Senate and Lower house speakers today to discuss next steps.
In equities yesterday, Italy’s FTSE MIB (-1.52%) looked as if it materially underperformed peers, but most of this was due to it being a big ex-dividend day for the index. After adjusting for the 20 companies that have gone ex-div, the underlying index change was closer to -0.3%. Nonetheless, the 5y senior CDS for Italian banks did widened 6-8bps vs. iTraxx Senior Financials at +3.8bp. Elsewhere, the Stoxx 600 (+0.30%) and US bourses (S&P +0.74%; Dow +1.21%; Nasdaq +0.54%) were all higher as trade tensions eased following US Secretary Mnuchin’s comments around putting the trade war and tariffs on hold. The S&P closed at a 9 week high with all sectors up and gains led by the industrials and telco. sectors.
Over in government bonds, yields on UST 10y were little changed (+0.4bp) while Gilts (-2.5bp) and Bunds (-5.6bp) seemed to benefit from the flight to safety effect, particularly for Bunds which rallied despite Germany’s markets being off on holiday yesterday. In FX, the US dollar index firmed marginally (+0.04%) while the Euro pared back losses to close up for the first time in six days (+0.16%). Elsewhere, WTI oil rose 1.35% to $72.24/bbl ahead of IEA talks with major oil producers on collapsing Venezuelan output.
This morning in Asia, markets are broadly lower with the Nikkei (-0.07%), Shanghai Comp. (-0.41%) and ASX 200 (-0.84%) all down while the Hang Seng and Kospi are closed for holidays. In Japan, BOJ’s Kuroda told the Parliament that “we’ll patiently pursue powerful monetary easing to achieve 2% inflation” and that we’ll “guide monetary policy taking into account its side effects such as its impact on financial institutions”. Over in China, the State Council is planning to scrap all limits on how many children a family can have, potentially as early as 4Q18. Notably, Bloomberg noted that the number of births in China rose c8% in 2016 after the government shifted the policy from one child to two in 2015, but then births fell 3.5% in 2017. Finally, a group of Western and Chinese journalists are arriving in North Korea today to witness the closure of its nuclear test site.
Now turning to the three Fed speakers on rates and the yield curve. Mr Bostic (a voter this year) noted “I think we have two more” rate hikes this year, but added this could change depending on what happens on the economy. On inflation, he reiterated that “I won’t be surprised to see a modest overshoot of our long run target” of 2%. Elsewhere, he noted that “I’m less concerned about (the yield curve) in the sense that we do have a say in that” and it is “very present in all our minds” that there is a correlation between inverted curves and economic downturns. On rates for this year, Mr Harker (a non-voter) “could back a third move (in addition to the March rate hike)…if prices picked up”, although he is not “seeing rapid acceleration in inflation”. Further, he added that we’re on a gradual, prudent path and “let’s go to neutral (rates first) and see how things play out, I would prefer to not be contracting the economy”. On inflation, he noted that it will go somewhere above 2%, but “could even go as high as 2.5%”. Finally, Mr Kashkari (a non-voter) reiterated his dovish views on rates and noted that “we should shift only to a neutral policy stance and not move too quickly, until we see more evidence that wages are climbing…” Elsewhere, he noted that “we could flatten the yield curve by the end of the year” and that it “really depends what happens to the long end of the curve……(and so) that’s something I’m going to be paying close attention to”. He added that “gives us some information where neutral (rate) is, but this is part art and part science”.
Moving onto some trade rhetoric from the US side. President Trump’s economic advisor Mr Kudlow noted that “I’ve heard privately in the discussions…that the Chinese are in fact very willing to open the door to a lot more financial services”, with options such as China allowing US financial firms to set up asset management companies to help tackle China’s bad debt issues. Looking ahead, Secretary of Commerce Ross will return to Beijing for more talks soon. Turning to NAFTA, Secretary Mnuchin noted that “there are still some very significant, open issues” and “we’ll see where we get to over the next few weeks”, although he added that all three countries are “still trying to get a new deal done”.
Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with the data releases from yesterday. In the US, the April Chicago Fed national activity index was slightly above market at 0.34 (vs. 0.3 expected), although the prior reading was also upwardly revised by 0.22pt. In the UK, the May Rightmove house price index was up 1.1% yoy (vs. 1.6% previous).
Looking at the day ahead, the April public finances data and May CBI selling prices in the UK are the only prints due in the European session, while in the US the only release scheduled is the May Richmond Fed PMI. Politics should play a greater role with the next round of Brexit negotiations beginning in Brussels, and South Korean President Moon Jae-in due to visit Washington to meet President Trump, in part to discuss whether next month’s US / North Korea summit is still going ahead.
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed UP 0.51 points or .02% /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 186.44 points or 0.60% / The Nikkei closed DOWN 42.03 POINTS OR 0.18% /Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .65% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.3686/Oil UP to 72.42 dollars per barrel for WTI and 79.58 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN. ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.3688 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3523/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING MUCH STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE A FULL TRADE WAR IS BEGINNING/
3 a NORTH KOREA/USA
North Korea/South Korea/usa
3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS
end
c) REPORT ON CHINA/HONG KONG
Big news overnight: China unexpected slashes auto tariffs to 15% and auto parts to 6%. China now waits for the USA to overturn ZTE penalties
(courtesy zerohedge)
China Unexpectedly Slashes Auto Tariffs After Trump Trade Truce
In an unexpected, but notable, victory for President Trump’s aggressive trade agenda and exporters of cars around the globe, China’s Ministry of Finance announced Tuesday morning that it would slash passenger car duties to 15%, further opening up the market that’s been a key target of the U.S. in its trade fight with Beijing. This comes less than a month after China decided to ease restrictions on foreign competition in its auto sector and also address some of the US’s concerns about intellectual property theft.
The reduction follows a truce that Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin announced during a Sunday appearance on “Fox News Sunday”. In response, the US has continued to reverse its policy of pressuring telecom giant ZTE, with Trump taking steps to rescue it.
“This is, without a doubt, positive news,” said Juergen Pieper, Frankfurt-based head of automobiles research at Bankhaus Metzler who spoke with Bloomberg.
Investors would agree, with European auto stocks gapping higher on the news.
But while the administration will no doubt rush to claim this as a victory, nobody expects the tariff cuts to be a gesture of good faith on China’s part: The US is now also expected to make a concession, perhaps in addition to reducing pressure on ZTE. Though for Trump, caving on ZTE is still a pretty big deal, even as the administration has been adamant about framing it as a national security issue and not a trade issue.
“You can’t completely disregard the fact that there are certain imbalances in China’s favor. This could be a signal that if one side is making concessions, it could lead to the Americans easing some of their pressure as well.”
Meanwhile, according to Bloomberg, the import duty on car parts will fall to 6%, from 25%. But Bloomberg warns that the cuts are largely symbolic, since they will only impact about 4.2% of car sales – at least for now (about 29 million cars were sold in China last year, and as tariffs fall, foreign car buying could become more commonplace).
China’s President Xi Jinping and his Vice Premier Liu He both advised that China would start implementing market liberalizations particularly in its automobile market in the coming months. The decision also comes after China announced over the weekend that China would end its anti-dumping investigation into sorghum. It has also signaled that there might be a review of Qualcomm’s bid to acquire NXP Semiconductors, which would be tantamount to another olive branch.
US and European carmakers were, understandably, delighted about China’s decision.
Ford and Porsche, maker of the Cayenne and Panamera car models, welcomed the announcement.
“Chinese customers will have a chance to enjoy an even optimized price and pursue more personalized options when buying a car,” Porsche said in a statement in China.
As Reuters reminds us, Trump has said that China’s 25% auto import rate was “stupid trade”, while Tesla’s Elon Musk has seemingly never stopped cheering about China’s move toward auto-market liberalization, something that would greatly benefit Tesla, which may be reaching saturation in the US.
In a foreshadowing of this morning’s trade news, President Trump tweeted late last night that “under our potential deal with China, they will purchase from our Great American Farmers practically as much as our Farmers can produce.”
Donald J. Trump
✔@realDonaldTrump
Under our potential deal with China, they will purchase from our Great American Farmers practically as much as our Farmers can produce.
The Trump administration isn’t always reliable – particularly when it comes to their comments about Chinese trade relations (recall when Larry Kudlow said talks were making progress, only for the Chinese to publicly embarrass him by declaring that there hadn’t been any talks). But by scaling back the import duty, China has given the Trump administration a boost of confidence, and a badly needed foreign policy win that appears destined to calm choppy markets. That is, unless China – or the US – abruptly decide to break off the talks. Or something else happens – tensions in the Pacific, perhaps, or maybe North Korea – that sets the budding detente back.
END
\
Trump back down on learning that ZTE would fail if sanctions continue. If agrees to drop ZTE sanctions if China agrees to a fine and a management shakeup
(courtesy zerohedge)
Trump Backs Down: Will Drop ZTE Sanctions If China Agrees To Management Shakeup, Fine
After China announced early Tuesday that it would slash its auto tariff, more terms of an as-yet-unfinished US-China trade deal are being revealed.
Trade talks between the US and China are set to continue in Washington and Beijing, and a comprehensive deal remains elusive, but in a sign of the US’s growing commitment to compromise, the Trump administration has agreed on the “broad outline” of a deal that would save imperiled Chinese telecom giant ZTE Corp., the Wall Street Journal reported.
The news bolstered NXP Semiconductors – whose purchase by Qualcomm now looks virtually assured, allowing hundreds of M&A arbs to finally exhale – which is up 1.8% in the pre-market, while ZTE sanctions benficiaries Ericsson and Nokia are down 2.2% and 0.9%, respectively.
According to the WSJ, the US has promised to remove the ban on US companies selling components to ZTE – which it imposed last month, purportedly because ZTE failed to fire certain employees and cut bonuses according to the terms of a settlement after it was caught selling US goods to Iran. However, this is conditional on a final deal being reached. President Trump has said he’s working with the Chinese to put ZTE back in business, because it’s widely believed that the company will fail if the sanctions remain; on Friday, Larry Kudlow said the company would need to make changes to its management and board to qualify for US assistance.
Those terms have apparently made it into the deal, and ZTE will be forced to shake up its management and board seats as terms of the deal, while also possibly paying a significant fine. ZTE is the fourth-largest vendor of mobile phones in the US, and before the deal, it was on track to become the first casualty in the US-China trade spat.
It still could be: already, the Trump administration is facing a growing backlash over the perception that it is “backing down” from a fight with China. However, Mnuchin has defended the detente and the administration’s decision to work closely with the Chinese.
On Monday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told CNBC that “the intent was not to put the company out of business.” Mr. Mnuchin also defended Mr. Trump’s decision to keep ZTE alive.
It is “not a surprise President Xi asked President Trump to look into ZTE,” Mr. Mnuchin said. “That’s no different than [the] president [calling] up world leaders on behalf of American companies all of the time.”
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is due in Washington this week and will continue talks on ZTE, said officials involved in his trip. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, who oversees the ZTE case, is scheduled to go to Beijing next week.
Meanwhile, stocks have been loving the trade-detente news, although since there isn’t a formal deal yet, the situation could still unravel. President Trump has already backed away from imposing tariffs on $150 billion of Chinese goods, as he threatened to do last month, reportedly because of internal turmoil over the administration’s trade strategy after Peter Navarro, one of the architects of Trump’s trade hawkishness, has reportedly been frozen out by Mnuchin. At the same time, it has also been revealed that he supported Stefan Halpert, the FBI mole in the Trump Campaign, for a State Department job.
Chinese spokesman Lu Kang has emphasized that the trade deal between the US and China is still being negotiated. Lu added, when asked about Trump’s tweet about the implementation of sanctions on North Korea, that China always fulfills its obligations but also retains “normal” relations with North Korea.
4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
The most important chart to watch: the 10 yr Italian bond yield:
(courtesy zerohedge)
This Is The Most Important Chart To Watch On Italy
As traders arrive at their desks this morning across America, one could be forgiven for exclaiming “I love the smell of relief rallies in the morning” as Italian bond yields are lower and Italian bank stocks are not tumbling (for the first time since Five-Star and The League joined forces)…
…and US equity futures are holding gains (from yesterday’s Trump Trade Truce)…
…suggest that the indestructible market mantra that “bad is good” and “buy the dip” is back.
There’s just one thing…
The Italian crisis is far from over and the concept of their ‘mini-BoT’ parallel currency is throwing up some very red flags about the future of the European Union…
You just have to know where to look.
As Bloomberg’s Tasos Vossos notes, a gauge of euro re-denomination risk (based on the so-called ‘ISDA Basis’ in Italy’s credit default swaps) blew out.
What’s more, redenomination risks are spreading as the measure widened in Portugal, Spain, and in France to a lesser extent, according to CMAN data.
As parallel currencies and debt-cancellation become serious discussion points for an Italian government, so European break-up risk is resurging.
Simply put, the higher this chart goes, the lower the market ‘values’ an Italian Euro relative to say a German Euro… and thus it is measuring the risk that the European Union – so long defended by Draghi et al. as indestructible – will break up.
As Marcello Minenna, head of Quantitative Analysis and Financial Innovation at Consob – the Italian securities regulator, previously noted, “markets do not lie… Italy must avoid remaining with short end of the stick. I wonder if our leadership will rise to the challenge.”
While the European Central Bank’s commitment to defend the irreversibility of the euro is based as much on threats as on positive pledges, financial markets understand the risks of “Italeave” even if the likelihood of the event is still judged to be low.
This can be seen in the data on credit default swaps (CDS), which offer protection in the case of an “insured event” or, in the jargon, a credit event. The widening gap in prices between different types of CDS contracts reflects the rising risk that some euro area sovereign debts may be redenominated into new, depreciating, currencies, which would probably lead to real losses for investors.
To correctly interpret the data on CDS prices, we need a quick flashback to 2012, another year of great tension for the single currency. While the center of the crisis was in Greek sovereign debt and the Spanish banking sector, institutional investors had already begun to think of how to protect themselves from the danger of the euro’s total dissolution, which might be prompted by the exit of a big country such as Italy or France.
Back then, there were no good options available. Buying CDS wouldn’t have helped because the standard contract explicitly excluded debt redenomination from the list of credit events if the issuer were a member of the G7 or an OECD investment-grade sovereign.
Two years later, new ISDA standards entered into force: contracts made since 2014 protect against euro area countries redenominating their debt into new national currencies.
Strictly speaking, it’s still possible to redenominate debt into a different currency without triggering a credit event, but this only works if the debt is switched into a reserve currency: the US dollar, the Canadian dollar, the British pound, the Japanese yen, or the Swiss franc. In all other cases, the only way to avoid the triggering of a credit event is if the switch to the new currency does not result in a loss for the investor: “no reduction in the rate or amount of interest, principal or premium payable”.
Since 2014 two types of sovereign CDS therefore coexist: the old (ISDA 2003) and the new (ISDA 2014). The latter has always traded at spreads wider than the CDS-2003, but the difference (the ISDA basis) had generally been small until: 15-25 bps for Portugal, 10-15 bps for Italy, 8-12 bps for Spain, 2-4 bps for France, and 1-2 bps for Germany.
The width of the spread between the two types of CDS – the ISDA basis – reflects both the perceived risk of redenomination risk and, in addition, the potential scope for depreciation in the event of a return to a national currency.
This year, something has changed.
And so, the chart above shows why U.S. credit investors may be right to be more concerned over a European sovereign crisis. As a reminder, the net share of investors expecting things in Europe to improve tumbled to 5% from a record 26% in March, based on Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s survey for May.
end
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
We wrote on Monday, that Putin stressed that it is necessary for all foreign forces to withdraw from Syria. After meeting with Netanyahu for 10 hours last week, no doubt that that includes Iran. Russia does not need instability and would probably want Iran to leave..Russia could protect Syria’s interests and allow Russia to have its warm ports and an entry into the Mediterranean.
(courtesy zerohedge)
Iran Announces Plan To Stay In Syria As Pompeo Issues Unprecedented Threats
After last Thursday’s relatively brief meeting in Sochi between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Syria’s Bashar al-Assad wherein Putin stressed that it is necessary for all “foreign forces” to withdraw from Syria, there’s been much speculation over what Putin actually meant.
Many were quick to point out that Assad had agreed that “illegal foreign forces” should exit Syria — meaning those uninvited occupying forces in the north and northeast, namely, US troops, Turkish troops and their proxies, and all foreign jihadists — while most mainstream Western outlets, CNN and the Washington Post among them, hailed Putin’s request to see Iran withdraw from Syria.
Whatever non-Syrian entity Putin intended to include by his words, both Syria and Iran gave their unambiguous response on Monday: Iran announced it would stay in Syria at the request of the Assad government.
“Should the Syrians want us, we will continue to be there,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Bahram Qasemi declared from Tehran, cited by Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency. “Nobody can force Iran to do anything; Iran has its own independent policies,” Qasemi said, in response to a question referencing the widespread reports that Russia desires Iran to withdraw forces from Syria.
“Those who entered Syria without the permission of the Syrian government are the ones that must leave the country,” he said further in a clear reference to the some 2000 US troops currently occupying Syrian-Kurdish areas in the northeast and eastern parts of the country.
As we noted in the aftermath of Israel’s May 10 massive attack on multiple locations inside Syria which marked the biggest military escalations between the two countries in decades, Russia has appeared content to stay on the sidelines while Syria and Israel test confrontational limits; however, Russia is carefully balancing its interests in Syria, eager to avoid an uncontrolled escalation leading to a direct great power confrontation.
But increasingly Israel’s patience appears to be wearing thin after Prime Minister Netanyahu’s oft-repeated “Iranian red line” warning has gone unheeded. In multiple summits with Putin going back to 2015 (the two have met over 6 times since then), Netanyahu has repeatedly stressed he would not tolerate an Iranian presence in Syria and further signaled willingness to go to war in Syria to curtail Iranian influence.
“Iran is already well on its way to controlling Iraq, Yemen and to a large extent is already in practice in control of Lebanon,” Netanyahu told Putin in one especially tense meeting in August 2017, and added further that, “We cannot forget for a single minute that Iran threatens every day to annihilate Israel. Israel opposes Iran’s continued entrenchment in Syria. We will be sure to defend ourselves with all means against this and any threat.”
Israel’s uptick in military strikes on Syria — attacks on sites purported to be Iranian bases housing Iranian assets — have intensified exponentially over the past half-year, nearly leading to an unprecedented breakout of region wide war during the May 10 exchange of fire, wherein Israel claimed to have been attacked by Iranian rocket fire.
The fact that both Iran and Syria can so openly and confidently announce Iran’s intent to stay in Syria means Damascus sees itself in new position of strength after both shooting down multiple Israeli missiles and simultaneously firing rockets into Israeli occupied Golan territory — a response perhaps very unexpected by Israel’s leadership which had grown accustomed to attacking the Syrian army and its allies with impunity.
Meanwhile, Damascus announced Monday that all suburbs around the capital have been fully liberated from al-Qaeda and ISIS terrorists, marking the end of a years long insurgency in and around the capital. As Al-Masdar News noted, “The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) is in full control of Damascus city and its countryside for the first time since the advent of this conflict.”
Yet the pattern which has emerged over the past few years has been that every time the Syrian Army emerges victorious or carries overwhelming military momentum, Israel or the US launches an attack.
Walid@walid970721#Pompeo‘s Iran plan is practically a declaration of war. No country with any dignity and self respect would accept the conditions he is putting on #Iran to stop the sanctions campaign that he announced. #Irandeal https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zE-qCyqLi9U …
The US for its part issued one of its strongest ultimatums yet to Iran yet via Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who vowed on Monday thatTehran will struggle to “keep its economy alive” if it does not comply with a list of 12 US demands, including Iranian withdrawal from Syria.
Golnaz Esfandiari
✔@GEsfandiari
Here is Secretary Pompeo’s list of 12 demands from Iran via @GalloVOA
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani rejected Pompeo’s bombastic demands and vowed to continue “our path,” insisting that the US could not “decide for the world.”
Rouhani’s words, as quoted by ILNA news agency, were as follows: “Who are you to decide for Iran and the world? The world today does not accept America to decide for the world, as countries are independent … that era is over… We will continue our path with the support of our nation.” This continuing escalation of rhetoric will likely only ensure Iran becomes even more entrenched in Syria, but it will be interesting to see how Russia responds diplomatically.
We’ve already seen Israel’s “diplomacy” in the form of repeat missile attacks, but how much will Russia and Iran sit back and take before enforcing their own red lines against Israel and the West?
END
6 .GLOBAL ISSUES
CANADA/BRAZIL/BROOKFIELD/
Canada’s Brookfield has not forgot its roots and is now buying assets in Brazil hand over fist as they sense blood in the streets
(courtesy zero hedge)
Canada’s Brookfield On Buying Spree In Brazil, Where There’s “Blood In The Streets”
Brookfield Asset Management is one of Canada’s largest investing firms, with over $285 billion under management. The company was formerly founded in 1899 as the Sao Paulo Railway, Light and Power Company, but over the course of over a century has turned itself into somewhat of a Berkshire Hathaway of Canada, with deep ties to investing in Brazil. Not unlike Berkshire Hathaway, Brookfield looks for deep value and distressed situations – exactly what it was able to find, and capitalize on, in Brazil over recent years.
The recent economic climate of corruption and recession in Brazil has meant that assets have been put up for sale at dirt cheap prices. Brookfield has been quietly and methodically scooping up these assets, using its experience in Brazil as a guided to navigate a volatile economy. Reuters reported:
In 2016, for example, Brookfield Infrastructure Partners LP (BIP.N) led a $5.2 billion acquisition of a pipeline operator from Petroleo Brasileiro SA (PETR4.SA), the state-controlled oil company at the heart of the Car Wash scandal. Recently, another Petrobras pipeline network with half the capacity fetched a top bid of around $8 billion from other investors. Bargain-hunting Brookfield gave that deal a pass.
The Canadians’ savvy is built on nearly 120 years of experience in South America’s largest economy. But the recent buying spree pushed the company to new extremes of due diligence and bulletproofing, according to interviews with six people involved in the deals.
Brookfield’s CEO was tongue in cheek about the way he described buying distressed assets in the company’s letter to its investors from February of this year, using the term “sellers in need of capital” instead of something less tasteful, like “desperate sellers”:
Chief Executive Bruce Flatt, whom some call the Warren Buffett of Canada for his value-investing approach, called recent Brazil acquisitions “quality businesses from sellers in need of capital” in a February letter to investors.
Left wing politicians in Brazil have been notably against the scooping up of state assets by private companies. But Brookfield has been sharper, drawing up agreements that result in compensation if they are broken, and covering their bases when it comes to due diligence and potential legal liabilities:
Brookfield’s purchase of gas pipeline operator Nova Transportadora do Sudeste SA (NTS) from Petrobras was part of a controversial divestment program aimed at trimming the oil firm’s massive debt load.
Critics have decried the privatizations, and Ciro Gomes, a leading leftist presidential candidate, has pledged to reverse sales of state energy assets if elected this year.
Foreseeing the risk, Brookfield tasked dozens of lawyers with drafting an ironclad agreement. Brookfield has a right to compensation if Petrobras changes the contracts in a way that hurts the Canadians’ cash flow, according to three people with knowledge of the matter.
The head of Brazilian investment banking at a global bank, who was not involved in the NTS deal, said it was an example of Brookfield’s willingness to bet big while protecting itself.
The climate of corruption in Brazil has not come without its challenges, even for Brookfield. The company has been accused of being involved with a few relatively smaller bribery scandals of its own. Reuters continued:
Its homebuilding unit was among around 30 developers accused of paying bribes to building inspectors in Sao Paulo between 2010 and 2012. Former employees of the unit, which later changed its name to Tegra, confessed to paying bribes and were cooperating witnesses in the trial of the building inspectors.
Brookfield said the company was not a target of the investigation and cooperated with authorities.
In a separate case, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) opened an investigation in 2012 into accusations that Brookfield’s Brazil shopping mall unit bribed Sao Paulo officials to win construction permits. The SEC dropped the case in 2015 without bringing any enforcement action. Brookfield denied wrongdoing.
One of Brookfield’s toughest recent deals will test its ability to avoid fallout from another municipal graft scandal.
Last year it agreed to pay $1 billion for a 70 percent stake in a sewage and water utility owned by Odebrecht SA, an engineering group ensnared in the Car Wash probe. Prosecutors accused Odebrecht of paying bribes to secure contracts with some of the 186 municipalities where the utility operates.
Odebrecht, which reached a leniency deal with prosecutors, said in a statement it is cooperating with law enforcement and “has created internal controls to detect and prevent unlawful behavior.”
But Brookfield, with its seemingly bottomless pit of capital and resources at its disposal, made sure that it had the legal protection in place to cover itself:
Some 60 lawyers working for Brookfield spent eight months assessing the risks. They arranged for $100 million of the purchase price to be set aside to cover potential liabilities if city governments break off contracts or demand compensation due to alleged kickback schemes.
Since subsidiary Brookfield Business Partners LP (BBU_u.TO) closed the deal in April 2017, none of the municipal contracts held by the company, now called BRK Ambiental, were rescinded and only one is in litigation, according to two people with knowledge of the matter.
At this point, Brookfield’s “investment” in Brazil is starting to look like the country could eventually become a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company.
We commented a couple of months ago about the turmoil and unrest in Brazil, writing about how the Army was tasked with “restoring order” in Rio de Janeiro. With public spending on police and social services collapsing amid Brazil’s worsening economic crisis, violent crime has crept back up in Rio de Janeiro, a city widely recognized for its favelas – urban hillside slums teeming with violence, drugs and prostitution, according to Bloomberg.
And ahead of an October election where President Michel Temer will try to win his first full term in office, the president is trying to send in the army to seize control of the city’s streets and restore order to an increasingly lawless town.
President Michel Temer issued a decree on Friday putting an Army general in charge of Rio’s security forces, including the state’s civilian police. The intervention, which requires congressional approval, will last until the end of the year, according to the decree.
“Our prisons will no longer be offices for thieves, our public squares party halls for organized crime,” Temer said after signing the decree.
“I know it’s an extreme measure but many times Brazil requires extreme measures to put things in order.”
But as is often the case with Brazilian politics, Temer has a plausible ulterior motive: By sending in the army, he might create enough of a distraction to avoid voting on an unpopular pension bill because Brazilian law conveniently prohibits making constitutional changes during times of military crisis.
Temer told Reuters that the intervention wouldn’t halt negotiations over pension reform or stop a vote on the plan, which is deeply unpopular with the country’s retirees, who stand to see their benefits cut.
Meanwhile, crime in the city has erased nearly a decade of progress, climbing back to its highest level since 2009. Temer’s decision is the first time the military has intervened in public affairs since the former military dictatorship ended in the mid-1980s and the country returned to democracy.
END
7. OIL ISSUES
8. EMERGING MARKET
BRAZIL
VENEZUELA
After Trump initiated sanctions against Venezuela and Maduro on Friday due to the sham elections, Venezuela returned Trump the favour by expelling its top USA diplomat
(courtesy zerohedge)
Venezuela’s Maduro Rejects Trump’s Sanctions, Expels Top US Diplomat
A day after being re-“elected”, Venezuela’s Maduro spoke on State TV rejecting U.S. sanctions – which “offend national dignity” – and expelling the top US diplomat from Caracas due to “conspiratorial behavior” against the government.
Tensions have mounted mount between the two countries following Maduro’s victory in disputed presidential elections on Sunday. The White House has branded the election a “sham,” and Maduro claims he “earned every vote and fought to win.”
“How many times have they underestimated me?” Maduro, 55, called out to crowd of supporters outside the Miraflores presidential palace in Caracas.
“You have believed in me, and I’m going to respond to this infinite confidence, this lovely confidence.”
“They say you were forced to vote, that you were coerced into voting — it’s an insult to the people!”
As Bloomberg reports, Todd Robinson, U.S. Charge d’Affaires at the Caracas embassy, and fellow diplomat Brian Naranjo have been given 48 hours to leave the country.
Maduro said he was expelling the two U.S. diplomats “in defense of Venezuela’s dignity,” exclaiming “enough with conspiracies.”
Robinson is a career diplomat who previously served as ambassador to Guatemala. Venezuela and the U.S. haven’t exchanged ambassadors since 2010.
Maduro singled out Trump’s sanctions, rejecting them by saying that
“It seems impossible to have respectful relations with the U.S. government,” adding that “US sanctions won’t stop Venezuela.”
And in a final piece of irony, Maduro stated that “Venezuela is free, sovereign and independent,” adding that he “vows to stabilzie the Venezuelan economy.” Good luck with that!
Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00 am
Euro/USA 1.1805 UP .0016/ REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ SPAIN VS CATALONIA/REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:/TRUMP HEALTH CARE DEFEAT//ITALIAN REFERENDUM DEFEAT/AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA FALLING INTEREST RATES AGAIN/HOUSTON FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES GREEN
USA/JAPAN YEN 110.93 DOWN 0.066 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/SIGNALS U TURN WITH INCREASED NEGATIVITY IN NIRP/JAPAN OUT OF WEAPONS TO FIGHT ECONOMIC DISASTER/
GBP/USA 1.3448 UP 0.0018 (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED
USA/CAN 1.2778 UP .0002 (CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)
Early THIS TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 16 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1805; / Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED UP 0.51 POINTS OR 0.02% / Hang Sang CLOSED UP 186.44 POINTS OR 0.60% /AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN .65% / EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GEEN
The NIKKEI: this FRIDAY morning CLOSED DOWN 42.03 OR 0.18%
Trading from Europe and Asia
1/EUROPE OPENED GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / : Hang Sang CLOSED UP 186.44 POINTS OR 0.60% / SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 0.51 POINTS OR 0.02% /
Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN .65%
Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 42.03 POINTS OR 0.18%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 1294.00
silver:$16.57
Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 3.07% !!! UP 1 IN POINTS from MONDAY night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/
The 30 yr bond yield 3.21 UP 1 IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/
USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 93.41 DOWN 27 CENT(S) from YESTERDAY’s close.
This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.962% DOWN 4 in basis point(s) yield from MONDAY/
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.0.55% DOWN 5/10 in basis points yield from MONDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.457% DOWN 6 IN basis point yield from MONDAY/
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.328 DOWN 6 POINTS in basis point yield from MONDAY/
the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 88 points HIGHER than Spain.
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +.56% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY
END
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY
Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1784 DOWN .0006(Euro DOWN 6 Basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/
USA/Japan: 110.95 DOWN 0.042 Yen UP 4 basis points/
Great Britain/USA 1.3445 UP .0013( POUND UP 13 BASIS POINTS)
USA/Canada 1.2776 UP .0003 Canadian dollar DOWN 3 Basis points AS OIL ROSE TO $72.72
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
This afternoon, the Euro was DOWN 6 to trade at 1.1784
The Yen FELL to 110.95 for a GAIN of 4 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE
The POUND ROSE BY 13 basis points, trading at 1.3435/
The Canadian dollar FELL by 3 basis points to 1.2776/ WITH WTI OIL RISING TO : $72.72
The USA/Yuan closed AT 6.3675
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.055% DOWN 5/10 IN BASIS POINTS / yield/
Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 1 IN basis points from MONDAY at 3.074 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.216 UP 2 in basis points on the day /
THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS
Your closing USA dollar index, 93.54 DOWN 10 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/
Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 1:00 PM EST
London: CLOSED UP 18.28 POINTS OR 0.23%
German Dax :CLOSED UP 92.20 OR .71%
Paris Cac CLOSED UP 2.59 POINTS OR .03%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 72.30 POINTS OR 0.72%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 124.19 POINTS OR 0,54%
The Dow closed DOWN 178.08 POINTS OR 0.72%
NASDAQ closed DOWN 15.58 OR .21% 4.00 PM EST
WTI Oil price; 72.72 1:00 pm;
Brent Oil: 80.28 1:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE CROSS: 61.04 DOWN 51/100 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 51 BASIS PTS)
TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES TO +.56% FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST
END
This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM
Closing Price for Oil, 4:30 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:
WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:$72.13
BRENT: $79.39
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.06% THIS RAPID RISE IN YIELD IS ALSO VERY DANGEROUS/RECESSION COMING/DERIVATIVES FRY!!
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.21%/DEADLY
EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1781 DOWN .0009 (DOWN 9 BASIS POINTS)
USA/JAPANESE YEN:110.92 DOWN 0.081 YEN UP 8 BASIS POINTS/ .
USA DOLLAR INDEX: 93.59 DOWN 9 cent(s)/dangerous as the lower the dollar the higher the inflation.
The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.3432 down 0.00202 (FROM MONDAY NIGHT down 2 POINTS)
Canadian dollar: 1.2815 UP 42 BASIS pts
German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: +0.56%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 13.22 CLOSED UP 0.14`
LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.330% .
And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver
TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY
Turkey Trounced, Italy Bounced, As US Stocks Puke Up Trade-Truce Gains
Trump took a few shots at China today, which didn’t help, but realistically today’s drop makes as much sense as yesterday’s rally on the back of absolutely nothing from China…
While there was some dip-buying in Italian banks (and bonds) today…
We note that Italian equity risk is now double that of US stocks…
And Italian credit risk is now perceived as higher than Russia’s…
And while US equities opened in the green, they accelerated lower all day long…
Small Caps managed to tag new intraday record highs again…
Before tumbling back to earth as the short-squeeze ammo ran out…
It’s worth looking at that ridiculous close once again, in close-up…
US and EU banks managed gains today…
Elon Musk is not happy…
Stocks caught down to reality…
Treasury yields traded in a very narrow range once again…
Second day in a row that the European open prompted a selling wave momentum reversal in the Dollar Index…
This is the 2nd consecutive daily drop in the dollar – the first time since April 15th
Emerging Market currencies bounced for the second day in a row…
Despite the collapse of Turkey’s Lira…
Cryptocurrencies carnaged today…
Copper and Silver outperformed today, Gold managed gains but chatter about OPEC possibly increasing output to offset Venezuela sent crude prices lower…
Finally, the SMART money just started dumping its stocks again…
end
MARKET DATA
Soft data Richmond Fed came back strongly from last month’s dismal read at a print of 16. Leading the way is the highest wage growth in 21 years.
(courtesy zerohedge)
Highest Wage Growth In 21 Years: Richmond Fed
One month after the Richmond Fed plunged by the most in 25 years, tumbling from 16 to -3 in April, its lowest print since Sept 2016, hope has come flooding back with the index rebounding strongly in May, printing at 16, well above the 10 estimate and at the top end of the forecast range.
The rebound, which some attribute to seasonal adjustments, was due to a surge shipments from -8 to +15, new orders from -9 to 16, backlogs from -4 to 7, cap utilization from -4 to +19 and so on.
Inflationary pressures persisted, with both prices paid and prices received continuing to march higher, similar to what we saw recently in the New York and Philly Fed surveys. Of note, expectations for both prices paid and received slumped from April to May, suggesting that manufacturers are starting to get cold feet on rising input costs and their ability to pass these on to consumers.
And while the rebound in optimism was more muted, with most expectations components rebounding strongly from April lows but still well below March levels, the biggest surprise was the jump in number of employees which rose by 50%, from 12 to 18 in May, but the real shocker was the ongoing surge in wages, which jumped from 22 in March, to 27 in April and 28 in May. This was the highest print in 21 years, or since 1997.
Now if only there was some pass through between the largely meaningless survey responses, and what the BLS records this month. Or maybe not, because if average hourly wages rose at the fastest pace in 21 years, both bonds and stocks would crash as the Fed launches emergency rate hikes to put the wage inflation genie back in the bottle.
end
J C Penny crashes to an all time low after its CEO unexpectedly quits this insolvent operation
(courtesy zerohedge)
JCPenney Crashes To All Time Low After CEO Unexpectedly Quits To Join Lowe’s
In the great race between JCPenney and Sears of which retailer will be the world’s slowest melting icecube, and who will file Chapter 11 (or 7) first, today the former took a decisive lead when JC Penney’s CEO Marvin Ellison unexpectedly announced he is leaving the near-insolvent department store operator to join home improvement retailer Lowe’s.
The shocking announcement came less than 3 years after Ellison took the top job at JC Penney, following an activist attempt by Bill Ackman to “fix” JCPenney ended in disaster.
The announcement was so unexpected it appears to thave surprised even the board of directors which said it had elected current Lead Independent Director Ronald W. Tysoe as Chairman of the Board and instead of a replacement CEO, it has created an Office of the CEO, which will be comprised of Chief Financial Officer Jeff Davis, Chief Customer Officer Joe McFarland, Chief Information Officer and Chief Digital Officer Therace Risch and Executive Vice President of Supply Chain Mike Robbins.
In short, the rats are leaving the sinking ship and are not even bothering to tell the other rats.
As the FT notes, Ellison is “leaving behind a company that is struggling to turn around an ongoing sales slump that has been exacerbated by the rise of e-commerce and changing consumer shopping habits.”
What he is also doing is assuring that all those who put JCP ahead of Sears on their deadpool will win.
JC Penney said Ellison would stay on until June 1. Ellison’s departure came just days after JC Penney issued another disappointing set of first quarter results and cut its profit outlook for the year.
“I want to thank Marvin for his many significant contributions to JCPenney over the past three years,” said chairman Ronald Tysoe.
“During his tenure, the Company retired $1.4 billion in debt, renewed and enhanced its revolving credit facility and has significantly strengthened the Company’s financial position. “Additionally, he assembled a strong leadership team that will continue to serve the Company in an elevated capacity to ensure the entire organization remains focused on our customer and improving results. We thank Marvin for his leadership and dedication, and wish him much success in his next endeavor.”
The stock plunged as much as 10% in the premarket, plunging to a new all time low. No pun intended, but Lowe’s rose over 3.0%.
Hawaii National Guard Presence Builds As Lava Nears Geothermal Power Plant
Update: For some context of what is going on in Hawaii, here is NBC’s latest live shot – not a green screen…
* * *
The situation on the Big Island is changing rapidly as Mount Kilauea spews more lava and gas threatening life in the region…
National Guard presence on the island is high as molten lava has made its way within a few hundred yards of Puna Geothermal Venture (PGV) power plant which government insiders have already warned may explode.
RT reports that the geothermal power plant has been forced to completely shut down after Hawaii’s Kilauea volcano entered a more violent stage, shooting fountains of red into the vicinity and threatening the release of toxic gases from the site.
Crews at the Puna Geothermal Venture (PGV) plant worked overnight to cap the 11th and final well at the site, which provides 25 percent of the Big Island’s power.
The wells run 6,000 to 8,000 feet (1,829-2,438 meters) underground to tap into extremely hot water and steam used to run turbines and produce electricity.
The capping is the latest measure to be taken at the plant, which has been closed since Kilauea first erupted on May 3. Authorities previously removed the highly flammable chemical pentane from the site.
“County, state, and federal partners have been collaborating closely to monitor the situation and work with PGV to ensure the safety of the surrounding communities,” county officials said, as quoted by Reuters.
As Intellihub reported on 18 May:
The highly-controversial Puna Geothermal Venture (PGV) geothermal power plant has become a major issue of concern among U.S. government insiders who fear an imminent explosion of the plant may cause a massive tsunami and wreak havoc in the region due to the recent uptick in volcanic activity on Mount Kilauea.
What officials aren’t telling you is that PGV usually contains tens of thousands of gallons of highly flammable solvents which it uses to power its turbines.
If earthquakes, eruptions, or fire cause this solvent to ignite it would trigger a massive explosion which National Guard/Civil Defense whistle-blowers fear will cause a massive tidal wave which would, in turn, threaten the Hawaiian Islands and the lives of people in the region. Although 60,000 gallons of the solvent was removed from the site last week, there is still a chance that capped underground geothermal well chambers which contain gasses may explode.
Now that the lava flow has made its way within a few hundred yards of the plant it only stands to reason the National Guard would be fully prepared to handle the disaster if one were to occur.
SWAMP STORIES
MAJOR SHOWDOWN COMING: the dept of Justice has asked the inspector general to expand its current investigation and include any irregularities wit the FBI and the Dept of Justice concerning the Trump campaign. Also expect a lot of dirty laundry to come out
(courtesy zerohedge)
Trump Meeting With Rosenstein, Wray On Spying Concludes: Congress To See All “Highly Classified” Information
As previewed earlier, on Monday afternoon president Trump met with Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, FBI Director Chris Wray and the Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats, in a discussion of the latest developments in the bombshell report that the Obama administration used a longtime FBI and CIA asset, identified as 73-year-old Cambridge professor Stefan Halper, to infiltrate and spy on Trump’s campaign.
With the meeting concluded, the White House issued a statement according to which the DOJ said it has asked the inspector general to “expand its current investigation to include any irregularities with the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s or the Department of Justice’s tactics concerning the Trump Campaign” and adds that “White House Chief of Staff Kelly will immediately set up a meeting with the FBI, DOJ, and DNI together with Congressional Leaders to review highly classified and other information they have requested.”
Full statement below:
“Based on the meeting with the President, the Department of Justice has asked the Inspector General to expand its current investigation to include any irregularities with the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s or the Department of Justice’s tactics concerning the Trump Campaign. It was also agreed that White House Chief of Staff Kelly will immediately set up a meeting with the FBI, DOJ, and DNI together with Congressional Leaders to review highly classified and other information they have requested.”
Translated: a lot of dirty laundry is about to become public.
As Sean Davis points out, the statement confirms Mollie Hemingway’s reporting that contrary to claims from the Washington Post and anonymous DOJ officials made last week, “the White House was never on board with Rosenstein’s plan to obstruct a congressional subpoena.”
Sean Davis
✔@seanmdav
This confirms @MZHemingway‘s reporting last week that, contra claims from the Washington Post and anonymous DOJ officials, the White House was never on board with Rosenstein’s plan to obstruct a congressional subpoena. https://twitter.com/evanmcmurry/status/998664665747075078 …
Evan McMurry
✔@evanmcmurry
Replying to @evanmcmurryMORE: “White House Chief of Staff Kelly will immediately set up a meeting with the FBI, DOJ, and DNI together with Congressional Leaders to review highly classified and other information they have requested,” White House says. http://abcn.ws/2KJ5vyV
As Davis also adds, “it’s also noteworthy that the White House released a statement immediately following the meeting, before Rosenstein et. al. could start leaking inaccurate information about the White House’s position, which is what happened after the last meeting on the matter.”
As we discussed previously, Halper was outed as the FBI’s “informant” last Friday following weeks of speculation, after the New York Times and Washington Post published easily identifiable information about the U.S. citizen and Cambridge professor. Their reports matched a March 25 article by the Daily Caller detailing Halper’s outreach to several low-level aides to the Trump campaign, including Carter Page, George Papadopoulos, and a cup of coffee with campaign co-chair Sam Clovis.
These contacts are notable, as Halper’s infiltration of the Trump campaign corresponds with the two of the four targets of the FBI’s Operation Crossfire Hurricane – in which the agency sent counterintelligence agent Peter Strzok and others to a London meeting in the Summer of 2016 with former Australian diplomat Alexander Downer – who says Papadopoulos drunkenly admitted to knowing that the Russians had Hillary Clinton’s emails.
As we detailed earlier Monday, Halper – who once reportedly ran a spy-operation on the Jimmy Carter administration, received a total of $1,058,161 from the Department of Defense for four annual contracts signed under the Obama administration, and paid through the Pentagon’s Office of Net Assessment (ONA).
* * *
With the spotlight shining ever brighter on the “deep state” actors behind the scenes, we expect an avalanche of NYT/WaPo/CNN “leaks” in the coming week to distract from what is shaping up as a major showdown.
END
These guys must be scared!! Sally Yates somehow believes that Donald Trump is not allowed to demand/ask the Dept of Justice to investigate. He certainly can. He cannot demand an end
(courtesy zerohedge)
Sally Yates: Trump Has Taken “Shocking” Assault On Rule Of Law “To A New Level”
Former Deputy Attorney General Sally Yates defiantly proclaimed that President Trump has taken his “assault on the rule of law to a new level” after he demanded that the Department of Justice (DOJ) investigate allegations of severe misconduct and potential espionage during his 2016 presidential campaign.
In a Sunday tweet, Trump said “I hereby demand, and will do so officially tomorrow, that the Department of Justice look into whether or not the FBI/DOJ infiltrated or surveilled the Trump Campaign for Political Purposes – and if any such demands or requests were made by people within the Obama Administration!”
Donald J. Trump
✔@realDonaldTrump
I hereby demand, and will do so officially tomorrow, that the Department of Justice look into whether or not the FBI/DOJ infiltrated or surveilled the Trump Campaign for Political Purposes – and if any such demands or requests were made by people within the Obama Administration!
Yates, who was fired last year by Trump after she refused to back his controversial “travel ban” which would have temporarily restricted travel into the United States from seven countries with ties to terrorism. The former Deputy AG warned that Trump’s demand to investigate the DOJ “crossed a line.”
“I think what we’re seeing here is the president has taken his all-out assault of the rule of law to a new level and this time he is ordering up an investigation of the investigators who are examining his own campaign. You know, that’s really shocking,” Yates said on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.”
“I know it was just a tweet but he did say something to the effect of, if I recall correctly, ‘I hereby order.’ And we saw the Justice Department respond to that,” added Yates. “I think [Deputy Attorney General] Rod Rosenstein is trying to strike a balance here between defusing the situation and also protecting the rule of law and the institutional integrity of the department.”
Yates also says that the Justice Department is becoming more and more accustomed to Trump’s behavior, which could threaten the rule of law.
“We become accustomed to things that the president does, in directing DOJ,” Yates said. “You know, I can remember a time when he would issue a tweet or directive and the reports would be: ‘In an unprecedented act, the president did X or Y.’ It’s not so unprecedented anymore and oftentimes it doesn’t even make it through the full 24-hour news cycle.”
Earlier Monday, former Attorney General Eric Holder tweeted (with uncharacteristically poor grammar) “Trump demand for DOJ investigation is dangerous/democracy threatening. DOJ response is disappointing.There is no basis/no predicate for an inquiry.It ’s time to stand for time honored DOJ independence.That separation from White House is a critical part of our system.”
Eric Holder
✔@EricHolder
Trump demand for DOJ investigation is dangerous/democracy threatening. DOJ response is disappointing.There is no basis/no predicate for an http://inquiry.It’s time to stand for time honored DOJ independence.That separation from White House is a critical part of our system.
Meanwhile, Yates said Trump had been “tearing down the legitimacy” of the DOJ – warning that his attacks on officials such as AG Jeff Sessions and special counsel Robert Mueller are “not normal” – and are becoming normalized.
end
It has now been revealed by a former adviser to Trump that there was a second spy trying to infiltrate the Trump campaign
(courtesy zerohedge)
Second Spy Tried To Infiltrate Trump Campaign Says Former Adviser: “This Is Just The Beginning”
Republican consultant and former Trump campaign aide Michael Caputo claims that a different spy working for the Obama administration approached him in an attempt to infiltrate the Trump campaign during the 2016 US election.
Appearing on Fox News‘ “The Ingraham Angle” along with former Trump aide Carter Page, Caputo’s comments come amid recent revelations that Stefan Halper, a 73-year-old University of Cambridge professor, was enlisted by the Obama FBI/DOJ to perform espionage on four members of the Trump campaign – both before and after the election. Halper then tried to infiltrate the Trump administration, asking top trade adviser Peter Navaro to recommend him for a job at the State Department according to Axios.
Halper has been paid over $1 million by the Department of Defense since 2012, with over $400,000 of it occurring in 2016 and 2017.
And now we have word of yet second spy –possibly from another agency within the Obama administration– approaching yet another member of the Trump campaign.
“Let me tell you something that I know for a fact. This informant, this person that planted, that they tried to plant into the campaign and even into the administration if you believe Axios–he’s not the only person that came at the campaign,” Caputo claimed. “And the FBI is not the only Obama agency who came at the campaign,” Caputo continued.
“I know because they came at me. And I’m looking for clearance from my attorney to reveal this to the public.”
Watch:
Halper, who served in three Republican administrations, approached campaign aides Carter Page and George Papadopoulos in July and September of 2016 respectively – maintaining a dialogue with Page throughout 2017, and paying Papadopoulos $3,000 for work in London for a policy paper on energy.
Halper and Papadopoulos met several times in London where the FBI spy asked the Trump aide whether he knew about Russian hacking of Democrats’ emails, according to the Daily Caller.
Sam Clovis, the Trump campaign’s national co-chairman, was also approached by Halper – meeting once for coffee just days before Halper first contacted Papadopoulos.
Caputo did not say why he believes he was contacted by a second government informant. Reached by TheDCNF, he declined to offer additional details, saying he needed clearance from his attorney. He did say the encounter occurred prior to Halper’s outreach to Page. –Daily Caller
“This is just the beginning,” Caputo told Fox News. “And I’ll tell ya, when we finally find out the truth about this, Director Clapper and the rest of them are gonna be wearing some orange suits.”
END
the spy, Halper, tried to infiltrate the state department in the Trump administration even though he was already paid by the dept. of defense
(courtesy zerohedge)
After Spying On Trump Campaign, Stefan Halper Tried To Infiltrate The State Department
FBI “infiltrator” Stefan Halper tried to worm his way into a senior role within the Trump administration, according to a Monday report by Jonathan Swan of Axios.
During the transition following the 2016 election, while still being paid by the Department of Defense for “research” papers, Halper – nicknamed: “the walrus,” allegedly approached Trump’s top trade advisor, Peter Navarro for a job as an ambassador to an unnamed Asian country.
Halper, who already knew Navarro in the context of being a China scholar and interviewing for his anti-China book and film, pitched himself for an ambassadorship in Asia, according to a source briefed on their interactions. Navarro says he submitted Halper’s name for the Asian ambassadorship — we have not been able to confirm the country — along with around a dozen other people for roles in the region. –Axios
Halper, a Clinton supporter, former government official and longtime spook for the CIA and FBI, was outed as the FBI informant who infiltrated the Trump campaign after the Washington Post and the New York Times ran reports that corroborated a March report by the Daily Callerdetailing Halper’s outreach to several low-level aides to the Trump campaign, including Carter Page, George Papadopoulos, and a cup of coffee with campaign co-chair Sam Clovis.
Halper, 73, cut a colorful figure as he strolled through diplomatic, academic, and espionage circles, having served in the Reagan, Ford, and Nixon administrations. –Daily Mail
These contacts are notable, as Halper’s infiltration of the Trump campaign corresponds with the two of the four targets of the FBI’s Operation Crossfire Hurricane – in which the agency sent counterintelligence agent Peter Strzok and others to a London meeting in the Summer of 2016 with former Australian diplomat Alexander Downer – who says Papadopoulos drunkenly admitted to knowing that the Russians had Hillary Clinton’s emails.
The 73-year-old American who split his time between his Virginia farm and teaching at Cambridge, approached several Trump campaign aides during the 2016 US election for purposes of espionage – on behalf of the FBI, headed at the time by the recently very quiet James Comey. Halper continued to spy on Trump campaign aide Carter Page well after the election, and now we find that he was trying to infiltrate the Trump administration.
In short:
- The FBI recruited Halper to spy on the Trump campaign in the summer of 2016
- After forming relationships with two Trump campaign aides, Halper invited one of them, George Papadopoulos, to work on a policy paper in London, where the 73-year-old professor/spy brought up Russian emails
- Halper approached Trump aide Carter Page during an election-themed conference at Cambridge on July 11, 2016. The two would stay in contact for the next 14 months, frequently meeting and exchanging emails.
- Then, after the election, Halper reportedly tried to infiltrate the Trump administration, pushing for a job in the State Department, according to Axios.
Sean Davis
✔@seanmdav
Weird: FBI spied on Trump campaign.
Weirder: Alleged FBI spy endorsed Hillary.
Weirdest: He endorsed her in an exclusive interview *w/ state-owned Russian media.*
2018: The alleged campaign spy then tried to become an internal Trump admin spy.https://sputniknews.com/politics/201611031047032702-clinton-us-uk-cooperation/ …
All the while, Halper had been paid handsomely by the Obama administration through a Department of Defense contract, one of four going back to 2012. The most recent contract had a start date of September 26, 2016 – three days after a September 23 Yahoo! News article by Michael Isikoff about Trump aide Carter Page, which used information fed to Isikoff by “pissgate” dossier creator Christopher Steele. The FBI would use the Yahoo! article along with the unverified “pissgate” dossier as supporting evidence in an FISA warrant application for Page.
Spying on Page after the election…
The second installment of Halper’s 2016 DoD contract is dated July 26, 2017 in the amount of $129,280 – around three months before the FISA warrant on Carter Page was set to expire following repeated renewals signed by Deputy AG Rod Rosenstein and a federal judge.
On July 28, he emailed Page with what the Trump campaign aide describes as a “cordial” communication, which did not seem suspicious to him at the time.
In the email to Page, Halper asks what his plans are post-election, possibly probing for more information. “It seems attention has shifted a bit from the ‘collusion’ investigation to the ‘ contretempts’ [sic] within the White House and, how–or if–Mr. Scaramucci will be accommodated there,” Halper wrote.
Carter Page, Ph.D.@carterwpageReporters keep asking me about my interactions with Prof. Halper.
I found all our interactions to be cordial.
Like this email I received about a year after I first met him.
He never seemed suspicious.
Just a few scholars exchanging ideas.
He had interests in policy, and politics.
So, it appears that Halper was paid – or at least received suspiciously timed payments – to infiltrate and spy on the Trump campaign, not just during the 2016 election, but well into Trump’s presidency.
After a Monday meeting between President Trump and Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, FBI Director Chris Wray and the Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats to discuss the Halper revelations, the White House issued a statement according to which the DOJ said it has asked the inspector general to “expand its current investigation to include any irregularities with the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s or the Department of Justice’s tactics concerning the Trump Campaign” and adds that “White House Chief of Staff Kelly will immediately set up a meeting with the FBI, DOJ, and DNI together with Congressional Leaders to review highly classified and other information they have requested.”
Full statement below:
“Based on the meeting with the President, the Department of Justice has asked the Inspector General to expand its current investigation to include any irregularities with the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s or the Department of Justice’s tactics concerning the Trump Campaign. It was also agreed that White House Chief of Staff Kelly will immediately set up a meeting with the FBI, DOJ, and DNI together with Congressional Leaders to review highly classified and other information they have requested.”
Translated: a lot of dirty laundry is about to become public.
end
There seems to be a huge co-ordination between CNN and the FBI re the Steele dossier. Many unanswered questions
(courtesy zerohedge)
“Flood Is Coming”: New Comey-McCabe Emails Suggest CNN And FBI Coordination Over Steele Dossier
Several new strings have been tacked across the corkboard in the rapidly unraveling 2016 election scandal. Recently obtained FBI emails shed light on what appears to have been high-level coordination between the FBI and CNN surrounding the release of the infamous “Steele” dossier.
In an April leak of the Comey memos, we learned that the former FBI Director briefed then-President-Elect Donald Trump on the dossier on January 6, 2017 after he wrote in a memo that various news outlets – “CNN in particular” – were “looking for a news hook,” and would soon be reporting on it.
“I said media like CNN had [the dossier] and were looking for a news hook,” Comey wrote of his interaction with Trump.
CNN, on the other hand, considered Comey’s meeting with Trump to have legitimized the document – making it their journalistic responsibility to report on it.
Thus – any coordination between the FBI and CNN surrounding its report on the Steele dossier is highly relevant, since the Jan. 10, 2017 release of the dossier by Buzzfeed immediately after CNN’s report – along with the subsequent firing of James Comey on May 9, prompted the launch of special counsel Robert Mueller’s ongoing investigation.
CNN’s bombshell report on Jan. 10 of last year includes a claim that Comey gave Trump a two-page summary of the dossier – which Comey denies. Regardless, the fact that CNN knew about the Comey-Trump briefing and a specific claim about a two-page memo begs the question; who leaked to CNN?
New FBI emails obtained by Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) provide a look behind the scenes surrounding Comey’s briefing of Trump, as well as what was discussed after the CNN report – suggesting that former Deputy director Andrew McCabe – who was fired for leaking to the press, had specific knowledge of CNN’s plans to publish.
Hours before Comey briefed Trump, FBI chief of staff James Rybicki e-mailed staff that Comey “is coming into HQ briefly now for an update from the sensitive matter team.” Just as the same officials dubbed the Clinton e-mail investigation the “mid-year exam” and the anti-Trump counterintelligence investigation “Crossfire Hurricane,” they also used various phrases using “sensitive” to refer obliquely to the dossier.
Two days after the briefing, on January 8, 2017, former FBI deputy director Andrew McCabe, who earlier this year was fired and then referred for criminal prosecution by the DOJ inspector general for repeatedly lying about media leaks, wrote an e-mail to top FBI officials with the subject, “Flood is coming.” –The Federalist
“CNN is close to going forward with the sensitive story,” McCabe wrote in an email to Comey, Rybicki, and two others. “The trigger for them is they know the material was discussed in the brief and presented in an attachment.” McCabe does not reveal how he knew CNN’s “trigger” was Comey’s briefing to Trump.
McCabe shot off a second email shortly thereafter to then-Deputy Attorney General Sally Yates along with her deputy, Matthew Alexrod, with the subject line “News.”
“Just as an FYI, and as expected,” McCabe wrote, “it seems CNN is close to running a story about the sensitive reporting.” Again, how McCabe knew this is unclear and begs investigation.
In a Monday letter to FBI director Christopher Wray, Sen. Johnson, chair of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, provides a timeline of events which correspond to the newly obtained FBI emails, and asks the agency to provide a list of all the members of the “sensitive matter” team referenced in Rybicki’s January 6 email.
Johnson also wants to know when FBI officials “first learned that media outlets, including CNN, may have possessed the Steele dossier.”
As The Federalist notes, “To date, there is no public evidence that the FBI ever investigated the leaks to media about the briefing between Trump and Comey. When asked in a recent interview by Fox News Channel’s Bret Baier, Comey scoffed at the idea that the FBI would even need to investigate the leak of a secret briefing with the incoming president.”
“Did you or your subordinates leak that?” Baier asked.
“No,” Comey responded. “I don’t know who leaked it.”
“Did you ever try to find out?” Baier asked.
“Who leaked an unclassified public document?” Comey said, even though Baier’s question was about leaking details of a briefing of the incoming president, not the dossier. “No,” Comey said.
Johnson’s letter can be seen below. He has requested a response by Wray no later than 5:00 p.m. on June 4.
END
It seems that Michael Avenatti problems are continue to pile up: today a judge ordered him to pay a 10 million fine in a legal feud with one of his former colleagues
(courtesy zerohedge)
Stormy Daniels’ Lawyer Ordered To Pay $10 Million Fine In Legal Feud
Michael Avenatti’s problems just keep piling up.
A law firm owned by Stormy Daniels’ attorney, Michael Avenatti, was slapped with a $10 million judgment Tuesday in U.S. bankruptcy court after he failed to pay $2 million to a former colleague, according to the Los Angeles Times.
Judge Catherine Bauer of U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Santa Ana ordered the Eagan Avenatti law firm to pay the $10 million to Jason Frank, a lawyer who used to work at the Newport Beach firm. –LA Times
“At this point, that’s what’s appropriate,” Bauer said at a brief hearing.
Avenatti had personally guaranteed Frank that the $2 million would be paid last week, however neither he nor his firm paid him.
In a settlement of his firm’s bankruptcy case, Avenatti personally promised to pay Frank $4.85 million, starting with the $2 million that was due last week.
Avenatti agreed that if he missed the deadlines for turning over the money, he would accept a Bankruptcy Court judgment ordering his law firm to pay Frank $10 million, including the $4.85 million that he’d personally guaranteed.
Frank had initially tried to collect the money through arbitration.
The three retired judges who oversaw the arbitration ordered Eagan Avenatti to give Frank the tax returns and financial records that he needed to calculate the exact amount he was owed. -LA Times
At the bankruptcy hearing, U.S. Attorney Najah Shariff told Judge Bauer that the federal government would also file a motion soon demanding payment of $2.4 million in back taxes, penalties and interest, according to court records. Almost $1.3 million of that was for payroll taxes that his firm withheld from employees but did not turn over to the government.
Avenatti has paid at least $1.5 million of what was due, according to the U.S. attorney’s office in Los Angeles. But he and his firm missed an installment that was due last week, Shariff told the court.
Avenatti, who has blamed the unpaid taxes on an unnamed payroll company, accused The Times of “purposely confusing me with a separate legal entity that has no role in the Daniels case.”
A furious Avenatti responded to the Los Angeles Times, calling the story “irrelevant” and “Over blown. Sensational reporting at its finest. No judgment against me was issued nor do I owe any taxes.”
Avenatti notably said “nor do I owe any taxes,” failing to mention that it’s actually his business at question – of which he is the lead equity partner.
Nonsense. Completely different law firm – no ties to Daniels case. Irrelevant. Over blown. Sensational reporting at its finest. Check the facts next time please and report accurately.
— Michael Avenatti (@MichaelAvenatti) May 22, 2018
The Times notes, however, that Avenatti “has repeatedly sent emails to The Times about the Daniels case from an Eagan Avenatti email address, with Eagan Avenatti below the signature line.”
After leaking the financial records of President Trump’s personal attorney, Michael Cohen (along with two unrelated Michael Cohens he wrongly accused “possibly fraudulent” payments), people began digging into Avenatti’s past – only to discover a train-wreck of shady business dealings, unpaid taxes, a state-bar complaint, and dozens of lawsuits in the wake of a failed venture in the coffee industry.
And as various media outlets have begun to cover Avenatti – from his dodgy past to criticisms of his legal strategy behind the Stormy Daniels case, the balding bulldog attorney seems to have come a bit unglued.
Last Monday, he sent an “insane” email to The Daily Caller’s Peter Hasson after he and Joe Simonson reported on a variety of questionable business dealings – using publicly available information, such as a complaint to the California bar claiming his now-defunct venture into the coffee industry dodged millions in taxes after he mislead a business partner (who sued).
Note: @MichaelAvenatti tried to call this off record, which of course aren’t terms I agreed to since it was an uninvited email pic.twitter.com/Ve6Guftwqq
— Peter J. Hasson (@peterjhasson) May 14, 2018
Avenatti’s threats received an immediate pushback – with CNN’s Ryan Lizza commenting “It seems fair and well-reported to me. If there is something specific that is false Avenatti should point that out rather than threatening the reporters.”
48 hours later, Avenatti was at it again – allegedly calling the Hollywood Reporter‘s Eriq Gardner an “asshole” before demanding to speak with Gardner’s editor over an unflattering article questioning the soundness of his legal strategy in the Daniels case.
M]any lawyers believe Avenatti’s strategy is risky. His argument — Trump didn’t sign the contract with the nondisclosure agreement, so it isn’t valid — isn’t terrible, but it’s no slam dunk. After all, Daniels did accept $130,000 for her silence and hasn’t returned any of it. But if Avenatti ends up losing, the cost to Daniels could be ruinous. One court document suggested the damages might reach $20 million, and that was based on the first leg of the media tour. It could be higher now.
…
And even as he takes risks for his client, Avenatti seems to be positioning himself for a bright future. Vanity Fair reported that he approached MSNBC president Phil Griffin about getting his own show, although Avenatti later claimed it was the other way around — networks approached him. Regardless, Avenatti’s profile-boosting posturing certainly will be a win for him. “This ceased being about ‘the law’ and ‘her rights’ about three seconds after they filed the lawsuit,” says Robert Schwartz, a litigation partner at Irell & Manella. “There is no meaningful downside. The coverage will drive business to him for years.” –Hollywood Reporter
Gardner said that as he was in the middle of composing the article, Avenatti contacted the Hollywood Reporter “to express concern.”
HARVEY
harveyorganblog.com 