MAY 25 A/GOLD DOWN 80 CENTS TO $1304.20/SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TO $16.53/DESPITE GOLD BEING UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK , THE GLD LOSES 3.54 TONNES TODAY/SLV LOSES 1.035 MILLION OZ/MOODY’S IS SET TO LOWER THE BOOM ON ITALY TO JUNK STATUS/ITALIAN 10 BOND YIELD RISES TO 2.47%/ SAUDI ARABIA HAS JUST CUT OFF ALL TRADE CONTRACTS WITH GERMANY DUE TO THEIR SUPPORT OF IRAN/GOOD NUMBER OF SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT/.

GOLD: $1304.20  DOWN  $0.80  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver: $16.53 DOWN  13 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Closing access prices:

Gold $1301.50

silver: $16.53

For comex gold:

 

 

For comex gold:

MAY/

TODAY OPTIONS EXPIRE AT THE COMEX/ON MAY 31 THEY EXPIRE AT THE LBMA/OTC CONTRACTS

SO GOLD/SILVER WILL BE WHACKED FROM TODAY UNTIL JUNE 1.

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR MAY CONTRACT:1 NOTICE(S) FOR 100 OZ.

TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR 730 FOR 73000 OZ (2.270 tonnes)

For silver:

MAY

813 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

4,065,000 OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 6990 for 34,950,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: BID $7324/OFFER $7425: DOWN $198(morning)

Bitcoin: BID/ $7395/offer $7495: DOWN $127  (CLOSING/5 PM)

end

First Shanghai gold fix comes at 10 pm est

The second Shanghai gold fix:  2:15 pm

First Shanghai gold fix gold: 10 pm est: 1306.00

NY price  at the same time: 1302.0

PREMIUM TO NY SPOT: $4.00

 

Second gold fix early this morning: 1308.80

USA gold at the exact same time:1302.20

PREMIUM TO NY SPOT:  $6.60

AGAIN, SHANGHAI REJECTS NEW YORK PRICING.

WE WILL NOT PROVIDE LONDON FIXES AS THEY ARE NOT ACCURATE AS TO WHAT IS GOING ON AT THE SAME TIME FRAME.

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY AN ATMOSPHERIC 6049 CONTRACTS FROM  200,325  RISING TO 206,374  WITH YESTERDAY’S 27CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING.    WE ARE NOW WITNESSING OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY COMEX LONG LIQUIDATION AS WE ENTERED INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY AS LONGS PACK THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATE OVER TO LONDON.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP :   3838 EFP’S FOR JULY AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE OF3838 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF3838CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE3838EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 19.190 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE  27 CENT GAIN IN  SILVER PRICE  AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR MAY COMEX DELIVERY. (35.630 MILLION OZ)

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF MAY: (FINAL)

36,729 CONTRACTS (FOR 19 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 36,729 CONTRACTS) OR 183.645 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1933 CONTRACTS OR 9.665 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH:  183.645MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 26.22% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:            1,328.9      MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018:                                               236.879     MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018:                                               244.95         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018:                                       236.67         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL 2018:                                          385.75         MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX OF 6049 WITH THE 27CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE.  WE HAVE NOW ENTERED THE NEW ACTIVE MONTH OF MAY.   THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT IN FACT WE HAD AN HUMONGOUS SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 3838 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) . FROM THE CME DATA:  3838 EFP CONTRACTS FOR JULY, AND ZERO FOR ALL OVER MONTHS   FOR  A DELIVERABLE FORWARD CONTRACT OVER IN LONDON WITH A FIAT BONUS (TOTAL: 3838). TODAY WE GAINED9887 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: i.e.3838 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH AN INCREASE OF 6049  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH THE  27 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $16.66 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN THIS  ACTIVE MAY DELIVERY MONTH. IT SURE LOOKS LIKE A FAILED BANKER SHORT COVERING EXERCISE!!

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.032 MILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 148% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MAY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX:813 NOTICE(S) FOR 4,065,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER, WE HAVE NOW SET THE NEW RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51  ON APRIL 9.2018.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL: 2.485 MILLION OZ AND MAY: 35.630 MILLION OZ
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/ (FINAL)

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT). IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE BANKER CAPITULATION IN SILVER AS THEY STRUGGLE TO REMOVE SOME OF THEIR HUGE OBLIGATIONS.

In gold, the open interest DROPPED BY A GIGANTIC SIZED17,559CONTRACTS DOWN TO 478,572WITH THE DESPITE THE GOOD GAIN IN THE GOLD PRICE/YESTERDAY’S TRADING (GAIN OF $12.40).  WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY. NO DOUBT THE BOYS ARE CASHING IN THEIR COMEX LONGS TO BEGIN THE PROCESS TO MOVE INTO LONDON FORWARDS.  THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCEAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 12,839CONTRACTS :   JUNE SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 12,491 CONTRACTS , MAY SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 0 CONTRACTS  AND AUGUST SAW THE ISSUANCE OF:348 CONTRACTS WITH ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The new OI for the gold complex rests at 478,572. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED  OI LOSS IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 17,559 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND A HUMONGOUS SIZED 12,839 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON.THUS  TOTAL OI LOSS: 4720CONTRACTS OR 472,000 OZ = 14.68 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS OCCURRED WITH A GOOD GAIN OF $12.40

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 10,136  EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY : 185,596 CONTRACTS OR 18,559,600  OZ OR 577.26 TONNES (19 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 9,768 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY OR 976,800 OZ/ TRADING DAY),,

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :    THIS MONTH IN 19 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 577.26 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 577.26/2550 x 100% TONNES =  22.63% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN APRIL ALONE.*** THE ACCUMULATION OF EFP CONTRACTS IS RISING PER MONTH.

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE:  3,334.90*  TONNES   *SURPASSED ANNUAL PROD’N

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018:           653.22  TONNES

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018:         649.45 TONNES

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018:                741.89 TONNES  (22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR APRIL 2018:                   713.84 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 17,559 DESPITETHE $12.40 GAIN  IN PRICE // GOLD TRADING YESTERDAY ($12.40 RISE).  WE ALSO HAD AN HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 12,839 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 12,839 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A GOOD SIZED NET LOSS OF 4720CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

12,839 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 17,559 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the LOSS in total oi equates to 14.68TONNES). ..AND BELIEVE IT OR NOT BUT ALL OF THESE OCCURRED AT THE COMEX WITH A  GAIN OF  $12.40 IN TRADING!!!.

we had: 1 notice(s) filed upon for 100 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD UP THIS WEEK BUT DOWN 80 CENTS TODAY: / A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.54 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 848.50 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 848.50 tonnes.

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP ON THE WEEK BUT DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY  A CHANGES IN THE SILVER INVENTORY AT  THE SLV INVENTORY/ A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.035 MILLION OZ.

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.968 MILLION OZ/ AND WITH A HUGE DEMAND FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX??

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 6047 CONTRACTS from 200,325 UP TO 206,374 (AND, CLOSER TO THE  NEW COMEX RECORD SET /APRIL 9/2017 AT 243,411/SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). THE PREVIOUS RECORD OTHER THAN WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER ONE YEAR AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS CONTINUES AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE: , 0 EFP CONTRACTS FOR MAY  (WE DO NOT GET A LOOK AT THESE CONTRACTS AS IT IS PRIVATE BUT THE CFTC DOES AUDIT THEM), AND3838 EFP’S FOR JULY AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  3838 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 604 9CONTRACTS TO THE 3838 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A  FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 9887 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  30.75 MILLION OZ!!! AND THIS OCCURRED WITH A 27 CENT GAIN IN PRICE .  THE BANKERS ORCHESTRATED THEIR RAID THROUGHOUT LAST WEEK  DESPERATELY TRYING TO PARE THEIR GIGANTIC OPEN INTEREST SHORT ON BOTH EXCHANGES BUT TO NO AVAIL. JUDGING BY THE RECORD NUMBER OF EFP ISSUANCE DURING LAST MONTH OF APRIL AT 385.75 MILLION OZ AND THE TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES, THE CONSTANT RAIDS, LIKE YESTERDAY ARE NOW BEING CALLED UPON BY OUR BANKER FRIENDS  IN AN ATTEMPT TO SHAKE AS MANY SILVER LEAVES FROM THE SILVER TREE AS POSSIBLE AND JUDGING BY THE RESULTS TO YESTERDAYS ACTION THEY WERE NOT AT ALL SUCCESSFUL.

RESULT: A GIGANTIC SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 27 CENT GAIN  IN SILVER PRICING YESTERDAY. BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER STRONG SIZED 3838EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR APRIL, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed DOWN 13.35 points or  0.42%   /Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 172.37 points or 0.56%    / The Nikkei closed UP 13.78 POINTS OR 0.06% /Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .05%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.3893/Oil DOWN to 69.04 dollars per barrel for WTI and 76.84 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN/MIXED.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AT 6.3883 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3812/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING MUCH WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE A FULL TRADE WAR IS BEGINNING/

 

 

/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA

 

That did not take long: North Korea is now crawling trying to desperately convince Trump for the summit

( zerohedge

ii)Trump gloats that Kim wants to come back to the table:

( zerohedge)

iii)Mattis states that the meeting may still be on:

( zerohedge)

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 c CHINA

China/USA

Trump will now take a much harder line on China after the summit collapse

 

( zerohedge)

ii)China/USA

Trump will now take a much harder line on China after the summit collapse

 

( zerohedge)

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

ITALY

i)The 10 yr Italian bond yield rises to 2.47 this morning triggering contagion problems

( zerohedge)

ii)The European crisis is back:  European mid morning trading:

Italian and Spanish bonds crash amid political chaos

( zerohedge)

iii)This is scary:  Moody’s has just put Italy on a downgrade review and their current Baa2 rating may be knocked a couple of notches to junk status…that will be a death blow to Italy.

(courtesy zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

My goodness: MBS is deeply offended by the German behaviour with respect to continuing to do business with Iran.  Saudi has just halted all orders form German companies and that will hurt Germany a lot

( zerohedge)

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

Moody’s now warns of a huge junk bond default coming as interest rates rise

( Moody’s /zerohedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

The price of oil plunges after the Saudi and Russia state that they will likely boost supply in the second half of the year.

( zerohedge)

 

8. EMERGING MARKET

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

Part iii of American default by Prof. Edwards
(courtesy Sebastian Edwards/GATA

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silveri)

i)USA DATA

Soft data, U. of Michigan sentiment slumps near 2018 lows with income expectations faltering

( zerohedge)

 

ii)SWAMP STORIES

a)An outline of how the genesis of the phony Russian collusion started with the spy Halper the main instigator

( zerohedge)

b)Yesterday the Dept of Justice briefs Congress on the FBI informant

( zerohedge)

c)this guy (Clapper) is nuts:  The FBI was not spying on Trump” it was benign information gathering
give me a break…
(courtesy zerohedge)

Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest FELL BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 17,559  CONTRACTS DOWN to an OI level 478,572DESPITE THE CONSIDERABLE GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($12.40 RISE/ YESTERDAY’S TRADING).   FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE.   THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED AN STRONG SIZED  COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 12,839CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: FOR  JUNE, 12,491 CONTRACTS ISSUED,  FOR AUGUST 348 CONTRACTS AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:  TOTAL 12,839CONTRACTS.  THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 4720 OI CONTRACTS IN THAT 12,839 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST17,559COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:4720 contracts OR 472,000  OZ OR 14.68 TONNES.

Result: A GIGANTIC SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST DESPITE THE GAIN IN PRICE /YESTERDAY  (ENDING UP WITH AN RISE IN PRICE OF $12.40).  THE  TOTAL OPEN INTEREST LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 4720 OI CONTRACTS..

We have now entered the non  active contract month of MAY where we LOST 10 contracts FALLING TO 2 contracts. We had 10 notices filed upon yesterday, so we LOST 0 contracts STANDING AT THE COMEX or an additional NIL oz will stand in this non active delivery month of May

The really big June contract month saw a LOSS of 40,818 contracts DOWN to 107,386 contracts. JULY saw a GAIN of 358 contracts to stand at 713.   The next big delivery month after June is August and here the OI ROSE BY 18,771 contracts UP to 258,891.

We had notice (s) filed upon today for 100  oz at the comex

 

ON MAY 25.2017 WE HAD 151,926 CONTRACTS STILL OUTSTANDING.

FOR THE JUNE/2017 CONTRACT INITIALLY 19.95 TONNES STOOD FOR DELIVERY.  AT THE END OF JUNE/2017:  9.176 TONNES STOOD AND THE REST MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

THERE IS NO QUESTION THAT THE COMEX DOES NOT HAVE ANY  GOLD TO SATISFY UPON OUR LONGS.

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY: 366,712  contracts

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY: 549,594 contracts

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
And now for the wild silver comex results.

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 6049CONTRACTS FROM 200,325 UP TO 206,374 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS)  WITH THE 27 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING/ YESTERDAY. SINCE WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY. WE  WERE  INFORMED THAT WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED 3838 EFP CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR JULY AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS.  THESE EFPS WERE ISSUED TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 3838.  ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED9887 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A 6049CONTRACT GAIN AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 3838OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:   9887 CONTRACTS

AMOUNT STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX

We are now in the  active delivery month of MAY and here the front month ROSE BY 729 contracts RISING TO 949 contracts. We had 25notices filed upon yesterday so we SURPRISINGLY GAINED A MONSTROUS 754 contracts or 3,770,000 additional ounces will  stand for delivery in this  active delivery month of May AS SOMEBODY AGAIN WAS DESPERATE FOR PHYSICAL SILVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND AND A HUGE AMOUNT WAS NEEDED STAT.

June saw a GAIN of 33 contracts to stand at 753.  The next big delivery month for silver is July and here the OI GAINED 4746 contracts UP to 140,899. The next active delivery month after July for silver is September and here the OI ROSE by 994 contracts UP to 30,542

We had 813 notice(s) filed for 4,065,000 OZ for the MAY 2018 contract for silver

 

INITIAL standings for MAY/GOLD

MAY 25/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil OZ
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz   nil  OZ
No of oz served (contracts) today
1 notice(s)
 100 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
1 contracts
(100 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
730 notices
72900 OZ
2.273 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz
 TODAY, WE HAVE  A TINY PULSE AT THE GOLD COMEX TODAY
we had 0 kilobar transaction/
We had 0 inventory movement at the dealer accounts
total inventory deposit into the dealer accounts:  NIL  oz
total inventory withdrawals out of dealer accounts; nil oz
we had 1 withdrawal out of the customer account:
I) Out of Brinks: 12,622.709 oz
total customer withdrawals:  12,622.709 oz
we had 0 customer deposit
total customer deposits: nil oz
we had 0 adjustment(s)

For MAY:

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to  1 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAY. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (730) x 100 oz or 73000 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY. (2 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (1 x 100 oz per contract) equals 73,100 oz, the number of ounces standing in this active month of APRIL (2.2737 tonnes)

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAY contract month:

No of notices served (730 x 100 oz)  + {(2)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (1 x 100 oz )which equals 73,100 ozstanding in this  active delivery month of MAY . THERE ARE 8.923 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY SO FAR.

WE LOST 0 OZ OF GOLD (0 CONTRACTS) STANDING IN THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY

total registered or dealer gold:  286,891.437 oz or 8.923tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   9,015,966.530 oz 280.43 tones
THE COMEX IS AGAIN IN STRESS AS ONLY 8.923 TONNES OF GOLD ARE LEFT TO SERVICE DELIVERIES. THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD AT THE COMEX TO SERVE UPON LONGS AND THUS THE REASON FOR THE EFP TRANSFER OVER TO LONDON.

IN THE LAST 18 MONTHS 74 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE APRIL DELIVERY MONTH

MAY INITIAL standings/SILVER

MAY 25/ 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 nil oz
CNT
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil
oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
 nil
oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
813
CONTRACT(S)
(4,065,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
136 contracts
(680,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 6990 contracts

(34,950,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

we had 0 deposits into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 140 million oz of  total silver inventory or 52.3% of all official comex silver. (140 million/268 million)

ii)everybody else: 0

total customer deposits today: nil oz

we had 0 withdrawals from the customer account;

 

total withdrawals;  nil oz

we had 1

 

i) adjustments

out of Delaware:  5260 oz was adjusted out of the dealer account and this landed into the customer account of Delaware

total dealer silver:  69.151 million

total dealer + customer silver:  270.040 million oz

 

The total number of notices filed today for the MAY. contract month is represented by 813 contract(s) FOR 4,065,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 6990 x 5,000 oz = 34,885,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY. (949) and the number of notices served upon today (813 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the MAY contract month: 6990(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAY(949) -number of notices served upon today (813)x 5000 oz equals 35,630,000 ozof silver standing for the MAY contract month

WE GAINED 754 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 3,770,000 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS SOMEBODY WAS IN URGENT NEED OF A HUGE QUANTITY OF PHYSICAL SILVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 70,480CONTRACTS

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY:98,406CONTRACTS

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF  98,406 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO 492 MILLION OZ  OR 68.3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -2.16% (MAY24/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.30% to NAV (MAY 24/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -2.16%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ territory at -0.30%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail but being rescued by Sprott.
Sprott WINS hostile 3.1 billion bid to take over Central Fund of Canada

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA): NAV FALLS TO -2.22%: NAV 13.51/TRADING 13.23//DISCOUNT 2.12.

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

May 25/WITH GOLD UP ON THE WEEK BUT DOWN 80 CENTS TODAY: WE HAD A HUGE 3.54 TONNES OF GOLD WITHDRAWAL FROM THE CROOKED GLD/

MAY 24/WITH GOLD UP $12.40/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.04

MAY 22/WITH GOLD UP $1.05/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.04 TONNES

MAY 21/WITH GOLD DOWN 50 CENTS/A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY/A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.24 TONNES FORM GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.04 TONNES

MAY 18/WITH GOLD UP $1.80/A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ A DEPOSIT OF 9.11 TONNES INTO GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.28 TONNES/

GLD WAS ONE MASSIVE FRAUD

May 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.75/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.17 TONNES

MAY 16./WITH GOLD UP $1.05: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.17 TONNES

MAY 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $27.35, THE CROOKS WITHDREW 10 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD WHICH WAS USED IN THE RAID TODAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.17 TONNES

MAY 14/ WITH GOLD DOWN $2.35: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 4.68 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD and then a withdrawal of 1.48 tonnes /INVENTORY RESTS AT 866.17

A net gain of 3.2 tonnes of gold.

MAY 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.75/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.96 TONNES/

MAY 10/WITH GOLD UP $9.60/A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.96 TONNES/SUCH CROOKS

MAY 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.55/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.13 TONNES

MAY 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.10/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.13 TONNES

MAY 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.55/ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.13 TONNES

MAY 4/WITH GOLD UP $2.05/A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.13 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.60 TONNES

MAY 3/WITH GOLD UP $7.05/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 866.77 TONNES

MAY 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.15/ A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.43 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 866.77 TONNES

MAY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.15/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.20 TONNES

APRIL 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.05/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.20 TONNES.

APRIL 27./WITH GOLD UP $5.90/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.20 TONNES/

APRIL 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.20 TONNES

APRIL 25/AFTER 9 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF NO MOVEMENT OF GOLD INTO OUT OF THE GLD, WE HAD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.31 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.20 TONNES.

APRIL 24./WITH GOLD UP $9.90, WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES/

APRIL 23.2018/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.00/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES.

APRIL 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.20: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES

APRIL 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.25: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES/

APRIL 18/WITH GOLD UP $3.65: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

MAY 25/2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 848.50 tonnes

*IN LAST 388 TRADING DAYS: 82.51 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 338 TRADING DAYS: A NET 73.79 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO GLD INVENTORY.

end

Now the SLV Inventory/

May 25

MAY 24/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.003 MILLION OZ/

MAY 22/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.003 MILLION OZ/

MAY 21/ WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.003 MILLION OZ/

MAY 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS  A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A WITHDRAWAL OF 942,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.003 MILLION OZ/

May 17/WITH GOLD UP 6 CENTS/A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 471,000 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.945 MILLION OZ/

MAY 16./WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS/A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.883 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.474 MILLION OZ

MAY 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS, NO CHANGES AT THE SLV; THE CROOKS COULD NOT BORROW ANY SILVER BECAUSE THERE IS NONE: INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.591 MILLION OZ

MAY 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS/A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A WITHDRAWAL OF 858,000 FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.591 MILLION OZ/

MAY 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS/THE CROOKS WITHDREW A MONSTROUS 2.824 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.439 MILLION OZ/

MAY 10/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 323.263 MILLION OZ/

MAY 9/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 323.263 MILLION OZ/

MAY 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 323.263 MILLION OZ.

MAY 7/WITH SILVER FLAT: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 942,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 323.263 MILLION OZ/

MAY4/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS/A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A DEPOSIT OF 1.224 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.205 MILLION OZ/

MAY 2/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS/A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 6.082 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.981 MILLION OZ/

MAY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.899 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.899 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.899 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENT/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316,899 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 25./WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.899 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 24./WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS/SOMETHING SPOOKED OUR CROOKS TO ADD SOME PAPER SILVER: A DEPOSIT OF 1.601 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.899 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 23.2018/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS, ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL FROM THE SLV INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.413 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.298 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.13 MILLION OZ//SLV RESTS TONIGHT AT 316.711 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 19/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: WE HAD A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.355 MILLION OZ/ MAKES ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE!!/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.841 MILLION OZ

APRIL 18/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ

MAY 25/2018:

Inventory 321.003 million oz

end

6 Month MM GOFO 2.12/ and libor 6 month duration 2.49

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0FO+ 2.12%

libor 2.49 FOR 6 MONTHS/

GOLD LENDING RATE: .37%

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.74%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.60

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.14

end

At 3:30 pm we receive the COT report which gives us position levels of our major players.  However due to the fact that all of the major bankers transfer much of their obligations to London as forwards (in conjunction with hedge fund longs) as longs cannot get access to physical metal, this report is absolutely useless for it only deals with the comex;

Gold COT Report – Futures
Large Speculators Commercial Total
Long Short Spreading Long Short Long Short
189,677 98,720 55,606 203,101 318,676 448,384 473,002
Change from Prior Reporting Period
-11,791 -10,305 -9,713 7,176 4,662 -14,328 -15,356
Traders
186 82 85 51 50 277 182
Small Speculators
Long Short Open Interest
54,558 29,940 502,942
-2,688 -1,660 -17,016
non reportable positions Change from the previous reporting period
COT Gold Report – Positions as of Tuesday, May 22, 20

our large speculators/

those large specs that have been long in gold pitched (transferred) 11,792 contracts from their long side

those large specs that have been short in gold added 10,305 contracts to their short side

our commercials/

those commercials that have been long in gold added 7176 contracts to their long side

those commercials that have been short in gold added 4552 contracts to their short side

 

our small speculators

our small specs that have been long in gold pitched (transferred) 2668 contracts from their long side

our small specs that have been short in gold covered (transferred) 1680 contracts from their short side.

end

Silver COT Report: Futures
Large Speculators Commercial
Long Short Spreading Long Short
78,007 62,782 14,609 76,516 107,939
5,344 -9,223 -1,841 -1,890 11,467
Traders
108 55 52 36 35
Small Speculators Open Interest Total
Long Short 198,248 Long Short
29,116 12,918 169,132 185,330
-1,430 -220 183 1,613 403
non reportable positions Positions as of:

our large speculators/

those large specs that have been long in silver added 5344 contracts to their long side

those large specs that have been short in silver covered (transferred) 9223 contracts from their short side.

our commercials/

those commercials that have been long in silver pitched (transferred) 1890 contracts from their long side

those commercials that have been short in silver added 11,467 contracts to their short side.

our small speculators

those small specs that have been long in silver added 5473 contracts to their long side

those small specs that have been short in silver covered (transferred) 9359 contracts from their short side.

end

 

Major gold/silver trading /commentaries for FRIDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.

GOLD/SILVER

Gold Surges To Record In Turkey and Other Emerging Markets as Currencies Collapse

  • Turkey’s election angst, geopolitical risk and collapse of the lira is driving up demand for gold
  • Turkish lira has collapsed versus gold and now the lowest on record (see chart)
  • Significant demand for gold coins in Turkey and central bank has repatriated gold and added to gold reserves
  • “Having the gold physically at home allows countries to feel like they are in control of their reserves” Dr Brian Lucey
  • Gold acting as a hedge and has been “expensive” not to own gold in Turkey, Syria, Venezuela, Argentina, Angola, Russia and many other countries in the Middle East, Asia, South America, Africa and Europe (see table of worst performing currencies in 2018 including the Swedish krona)

from Bloomberg:

With just a month until elections, shopkeepers at Turkey’s biggest bazaar say they’re seeing a jump in demand for gold coins.

“Turkish people have an interesting behavior — they buy gold when the prices are rising, they think it’s gonna rise more,” said Gokhan Karakan, 32, who runs a gold exchange office in the heart of Istanbul’s Grand Bazaar. “People think there is a trend here and choose to buy gold until uncertainty is out of the way.”

On Friday afternoon, at the Grand Bazaar — one of the world’s oldest covered markets — shopkeepers said more customers were buying gold, instead of selling it, in hopes that the metal will keep its worth as the value of the lira plunges.

Gold priced in lira is more “expensive” than ever, but that’s not deterring buyers, who are looking for a safe haven.

“Turkish people love gold,” said Tekin Firat, 30, who owns and runs a gold store the bazaar. “People think that it will never lose in the long run.”

Citizens are buying up gold as the lira plunges in latest currency crisis. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who’s about to launch a re-election campaign that may provide the toughest electoral test of his 15 years in power, is an outspoken advocate of cheap money. He’s up against investors demanding higher returns to fund an economy beset by inflation and a swollen current account deficit.

Gold has a special importance in Turkey. The country is to home the ancient kingdom of Lydia, where the earliest known gold coinage originated in the 7th century B.C.

Turkey imported 118 metric tons of bullion, worth $5 billion at today’s prices, in first four months of this year, the most over that period, according to data going back to 1995 from the Istanbul Gold Exchange. Last year, imports reached a record.

It’s not just consumers that are snapping up gold. Official reserves have also increased over the past year. The central bank doesn’t comment on its gold strategy, but previously said the changes in its holdings are part of an effort to diversify its reserves.

The reported figure may be misleadingly high because the central bank allows commercial banks to deposit gold as part of their reserves. The government last year launched a campaign to get more “under-the-pillow gold” into the formal banking system. About half of the 216 ton inflow since the start of 2017 can be attributed to this alternative source, according to Matthew Turner, a strategist at Macquarie Group Ltd. in London.

Even so, the purchases have happened a year after Erdogan urged Turks to convert their foreign currency savings into liras and gold, and tensions with the U.S. reached a new low.

“The central bank certainly has been more active in the gold market,” said Turner. “It seems the government would like a larger share of its reserves in assets that’s not related to the U.S. dollar.”

In 2017, the central bank withdrew of its 28.7 tons of gold, worth about $1.2 billion, from Federal Reserve vaults. It didn’t say where the gold went, but holdings increased at Borsa Instanbul, the Bank of England and Bank of International Settlements, according to a report released in April.

The decision for any country to withdraw gold from U.S. vaults is rare — happening only a handful of times in the past decade. Since 2011, Germany, the Netherlands, Hungary and Venezuela have repatriated their gold holdings from the U.S.

Turkey’s decision to withdraw gold may have been a reaction to U.S. court cases against Turkish banks for alleged deals struck with Iran, said Cagdas Kucukemiroglu, a Middle Eastern gold analyst at research firm Metals Focus.

“Having the gold physically at home allows countries to feel like they are in control of their reserves,” said Brian Lucey, a professor of finance at Trinity Business School in Dublin.

Related Content
Dollar Squeeze Spells More Pain for World’s Worst Currencies

Gold Is a Safe Haven Asset

Listen on SoundCloud , Blubrry & iTunesWatch on YouTube above

 

News and Commentary

Gold prices slip but hold above $1,300 (Reuters.com)

Asian markets cautious after Trump cancels North Korea summit (MarketWatch.com)

Existing-home sales tumble as supply crunch squeezes (MarketWatch.com)

Gold surges and regains 1300 as Kim-Trump meeting is called off (ActionForex.com)

Gold Prices Top $1,300 as Trump Cancels U.S.-North Korea Summit (Investing.com)


Source: Bloomberg.com

Gold is good protection because of Trump and North Korea ‘playing chicken’ – Ray Dalio (CNBC.com)

Turkey’s Election Angst Is Driving Up Demand for Gold (Bloomberg.com)

Simple lesson from Turkey for investors: rising authoritarianism is bearish (MoneyWeek.com)

The great buy-to-let sell up (MoneyWeek.com)

‘American Default’: If gold won’t go up, push the dollar down (Part 3) (Bloomberg.com)

 

Listen on SoundCloud , Blubrry & iTunesWatch on YouTube below

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

24 May: USD 1,296.35, GBP 967.73 & EUR 1,104.88 per ounce
23 May: USD 1,294.00, GBP 967.91 & EUR 1,102.88 per ounce
22 May: USD 1,293.90, GBP 961.24 & EUR 1,095.29 per ounce
21 May: USD 1,285.85, GBP 959.24 & EUR 1,095.67 per ounce
18 May: USD 1,287.20, GBP 954.20 & EUR 1,091.16 per ounce
17 May: USD 1,288.85, GBP 952.07 & EUR 1,090.50 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

24 May: USD 16.51, GBP 12.32 & EUR 14.09 per ounce
23 May: USD 16.53, GBP 12.38 & EUR 14.11 per ounce
22 May: USD 16.58, GBP 12.32 & EUR 14.04 per ounce
21 May: USD 16.34, GBP 12.19 & EUR 13.91 per ounce
18 May: USD 16.39, GBP 12.16 & EUR 13.92 per ounce
17 May: USD 16.39, GBP 12.14 & EUR 13.90 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– Gold Price Surges To Record In Turkey and Other Emerging Markets as Currencies Collapse
– Gold Rarity and Value Shown In Stunning Gold Visualisations
– Gold Looks A Better Investment Than UK Property
– Gold 2048: The Next 30 Years For Gold
– Beware “Snollygosters” and the Empty Promises of Pathological Politicians
– US 10-Year Surges, Emerging Markets Implode…Where Next for Gold?
– Welsh Gold Being Hyped Due To The Royal Wedding?
– Oil Price Is Going To Keep Rising And Inflation Is Coming
– Gold Price Manipulation – A Comprehensive Guide By James Rickards
– EU ‘Nightmare Scenario’ As Popular Anti-Euro and Anti-EU Government Takes Power In Italy
– “Oil price highest in 3 years, gold ready to follow”, by Daniel March
– Gold Mining Supply Globally Looks Set To Decline
– Gold Bullion Demand In Iran May Surge On Trump Sanctions

END

Andrew Maguire’s Kinesis money which is a “bitcoin” but backed 100% by allocated gold and silver is set to go.

it think it would be a great idea to look at this!

please read at:  https://kinesis.money/#/

(Andrew Maguire)

Andrew Maguire

2:57 PM (1 hour ago)
to me

Harvey

Here It is my friend!  https://kinesis.money/#/ Please let everyone know.

Let catch up on Monday if you have time. We have billions in the hopper ready to be allocated on the 1st day of trading. The paper market days are over.

Warm regards

Andy

 END
Part iii of American default by Prof. Edwards
(courtesy Sebastian Edwards/GATA)

Part 3 from ‘American Default’: If gold won’t go up, push the dollar down

 Section: Daily Dispatches

8:10p ET Thursday, May 24, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Part 3 of Bloomberg News’ excerpting of “American Default” by Professor Sebastian Edwards of the University of California at Los Angeles describes President Franklin Roosevelt’s daily effort to figure out the price at which the U.S. government should purchase gold in the hope of raising commodity prices. Part 3 is headlined “The Gamble: If Gold Won’t Go Up, Push the Dollar Down” and it’s posted at Bloomberg here:

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-05-24/fdr-s-gamble-on-gold-…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

 



___________________________________________________________________

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED DOWN TO 6.3883  /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 13.35 POINTS OR 0.42%     HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 172.37  POINTS OR 0.56%
2. Nikkei closed UP 13.78 POINTS OR 0.06% /  /USA: YEN RISES TO 109.42/

3. Europe stocks OPENED GREEN/MIXED     /USA dollar index RISES TO 93.95/Euro FALLS TO 1.1694

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO . +.04/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 109.65/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD FINALLY IN THE POSITIVE/BANK OF JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR YIELD CURVE AS THEY PURCHASE ALL BONDS TO GET TO ZERO RATE!!

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 69.04  and Brent: 76.84

3f Gold UP/Yen DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.56%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 2.47% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.50%

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 4.32?????????????????

3k Gold at $1305.60 silver at:16.69   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 53/100 in roubles/dollar) 62.08

3m oil into the 69 dollar handle for WTI and 76 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 109.42 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9910 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1602 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to +0.560%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.96% early this morning (THIS IS DEADLY TO ALL MARKETS). Thirty year rate at 3.10%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)

Traders On Edge As Spanish Political Crisis, Oil

Plunge

Threaten Pre-Holiday Market Bliss

For much of the overnight session, the market’s attention was focused on North Korea’s amicable reaction to Trump’s cancellation of the June 12 summit, an indication that yesterday’s selloff may have been overdone as Trump’s gambit was merely a negotiating ploy, and a successful one at that.

For those who missed the latest twist, North Korea expressed regret regarding the US cancellation of the summit and said it is willing to talk with the US anytime. North Korea added it is still willing to resolve issues with US “whenever and however” and that they hoped for issues to be resolved “Trump style”. Furthermore, North Korea stated that the Summit was necessary to resolve current hostile bilateral relationship and that its previous remarks regarding the summit had been in protest against strong US comments, according to reports citing Vice Foreign Minister Kim Kye Gwan.

While some in the markets saw this as a window of opportunity for the summit to be salvaged, and thus a “risk on” catalyst, others twisted the narrative and said nobody had really expected the summit to take place, so yesterday’s diversion was to be expected, and thus also a “risk on” catalyst (and yes, this is an example of how the “market” spins any event as bullish). Which is why for much of the session, bullish sentiment prevailed.

And sure enough, after a mixed Asian session which saw The MSCI Asia Pac close down -0.2%, but up +0.1% ex Japan, Europe’s Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose, with most sectors in the green, and equity-index futures pointed to a higher U.S. open as concerns about an escalation in tensions over North Korea’s nuclear program eased.

However, things rapidly reversed when Saudi energy minister Al-Falih said that OPEC and Russia are now contemplating boosting output in the second half of 2018, sending WTI tumbling below $70, and pressuring energy stocks.

Meanwhile, the plunge in Italy’s bonds continued, with the BTP yield rising above the key resistance level of 2.40%, and the Bund-BTP spread blowing out beyond 200bps, which Goldman said yesterday was the “contagion” threshold beyond which Italy’s crisis becomes Europe’s crisis and is set to hit Portugal next.

Commenting on the move, Nomura said that Italian government bond yields will likely rise toward a four- year high against German bunds, and any relief rally should be short-lived.

Still, for now complacent investors seem to generally be taking a more sanguine view on geopolitical risks, even as things continue to deteriorate, and while North Korea’s apparent willingness to keep talking appeared to soothe markets, other risks remain, most notably the start of what appears to be yet another European political crisis as Spain’s biggest opposition party Ciudadanos said it was ready to push for a no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, while tensions around global trade linger as the following list from Bloomberg’s Garfield Reyonds summarizes:

  • Italy’s populists managed to stun markets with their policies more than two months after the election. They are now close to finally taking office
  • Erdogan’s determination to use his own, contrarian, monetary policy playbook
  • The summit between the mercurial leaders of the U.S. and North Korea was canned, for now
  • Fresh outbreaks in trade tensions surrounding China and Nafta
  • Argentina seeking an IMF bailout

Still, nearly 10 years of Pavlovian reactions to BTFD have made a dip virtually impossible, and this morning despite the growing storm clouds, US equity futures are well in the green.

In other macro news, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot index rose on the day but was lower on a weekly basis amid fading risk-off sentiment, ahead of a long weekend in the U.S. and the U.K. The euro stayed in close proximity to 1.17 handle while the Swedish krona led gains in G-10. The lira swung between gains and losses of as much as 2%, though still heading for its worst week since in eight years, after the central bank said it would allow exporters to repay dollar-denominated loans in the local currency, while the pound weakened after the European Union dismissed many of the U.K.’s plans for their post-Brexit relationship.

Turkey could certainly contemplate another rate hike next month if the exchange rate continues to come under pressure, says James McCormack, global head of sovereigns at Fitch Ratings.

As noted above, oil is set to close the week in the red for the first time this month as both WTI and Brent are negative for the day at USD 69.31 and USD 76.95 respectively. This comes amid confirmation of a potential easing of supply cuts by OPEC to make up for the lost capacity of Venezuela and Iran with Russian Oil Minister Novak stating that all proposals will be discussed in June when asked about possible oil production increase by 1mln bpd. In addition to this the Saudi Energy Minister said they are certainly prepared to adjust policy in June, and release of supply will be gradual, adding that there is likely to be an oil supply boost in the second half of 2018. Furthermore, SocGen have revised their oil forecast higher for Q4 2018 with Brent revised to USD 78/bbl (+USD 14) and WTI revised to USD 73/bbl (+USD 13).

Gold is currently trading flat as safe haven demand softens the blow of profit taking heading into the weekend. Steel strengthening as concerns over demand diminish alongside declining inventories. Copper and nickel also rising, with nickel hitting near 3 year highs, spurred on by increasing base metals prices

Expected data include durable goods orders and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Foot Locker, CAE, and Buckle are among companies reporting earnings.

Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk

  • Oil slides as Russian and Saudi energy ministers confirm speculation of possible production increases in June
  • Italian/German spread continue widening as markets await news from Italy, party leaders to meet today
  • Looking ahead, highlight include, US Durables, Uni. Of Michigan and Coeure, Powell, Kaplan, Weidmann and Carney speaking

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2,733.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.5% to 392.57
  • MXAP down 0.2% to 173.32
  • MXAPJ up 0.1% to 566.57
  • Nikkei up 0.06% to 22,450.79
  • Topix down 0.2% to 1,771.70
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.6% to 30,588.04
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.4% to 3,141.30
  • Sensex up 0.8% to 34,930.01
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.07% to 6,032.82
  • Kospi down 0.2% to 2,460.80
  • German 10Y yield fell 2.0 bps to 0.452%
  • Euro down 0.02% to $1.1718
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 0.2 bps to 2.136%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.0 bps to 1.402%
  • Brent futures down 1.4% to $77.66/bbl
  • Gold spot little changed at $1,304.23
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 93.82

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Spain’s Ciudadanos, the centrist party that holds the balance of power in the Parliament, said it’s ready to back a no-confidence vote against Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy unless he calls a snap election; the opposition Socialists registered a no-confidence motion against Rajoy after his former aides were convicted of running a multimillion-euro corruption racket inside the party on his watch
  • OPEC and its allies are likely to gradually boost oil output in the second half of the year to ease consumer anxiety as prices trade near $80 a barrel, said Saudi Minister of Energy and Industry Khalid Al-Falih; Oil is set for its first weekly decline this month as OPEC and its allies consider easing supply cuts
  • North Korea said it was surprised by President Donald Trump’s decision to cancel a June 12 summit with Kim Jong Un and that the country remains willing to meet with the U.S. at any time
  • U.K. consumer spending lost momentum in the first quarter and companies cut investment after severe weather swept the country
  • Global finance chiefs urged the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to preserve the independence of his country’s central bank after confusion sent the lira plummeting
  • Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said Brexit is entering a crucial phase and this means his oft-criticized guidance on monetary policy is more important than ever.
  • The European Union dismissed many of the U.K.’s plans for their post-Brexit relationship as little short of “fantasy” as the mood of negotiations deteriorated and progress stalled
  • Mexico told the U.S. that it can be flexible on automotive wages and content in exchange for President Donald Trump’s negotiators withdrawing some of their other toughest demands, according to two people familiar with the Nafta talks.

Asian stock markets traded cautiously as the region reacted to US President Trump’s cancellation of the summit with North Korea. However, losses for the regional bourses were contained in a similar fashion to their US counterparts after Trump kept the door open for the summit to take place in the future. ASX 200 (-0.2%), Nikkei 225 (Unch.) and KOSPI (-0.1%) all began weaker due to the summit cancellation with South Korea taking the brunt of the news, although the picture somewhat improved as participants digested a more conciliatory tone from North Korea overnight which stated it was still willing to resolve issues with the US, while US and South Korea officials also agreed to create conditions for talks between US and North Korea. In addition, Japanese stocks found some reprieve from a weaker currency, while Shanghai Comp. (-0.1%) and Hang Seng (-0.2%) were kept subdued amid a lack of drivers and as this week’s PBoC liquidity operations resulted to a net drain of CNY 30bln in contrast to the substantial net injection of CNY 410bln last week. Finally, 10yr JGBs were flat with only minimal support seen amid a cautious-but-improved risk tone in the region, while the BoJ’s Rinban announcement for over JPY 1tln of JGBs in 1yr-10yr maturities also failed to spur demand as the central bank kept all purchase amounts unchanged. US Commerce Secretary Ross will visit China June 2nd-4th for trade discussions.

Top Asian News

  • North Korea Says It Remains Willing to Meet With U.S. Any Time
  • Chinese Developer Wuzhou Plunges 85% in Hong Kong Trading
  • The World’s Most Profitable Banks Can Be Found in India
  • China Is Said to Back Private Investment in State Carmakers
  • Hon Hai Arm’s $4.3B Chinese IPO More Than 290 Times Subscribed

European equities are mostly positive as the region bucks the trend experienced in Asia and Wall St. FTSE MIB is underperforming against its peers with banks taking a hit as the Italian Banks Index falls to one-month lows. The energy sector underperforms yet again amid the continuing sell-off in oil prices. In terms of stock specifics, Novartis (+1.4%) is buoyed by an upgrade at Credit Suisse, AstraZeneca (+0.9%) is higher following a positive result from Phase 3 trials and Kingfisher (+4%) after Homebase was sold to Hilco Capital and thus marks an exit of Wesfarmers from the UK market. Some negative news for Daimler, as the German motor authority KBA probes suspected emission manipulation in the company with more than 600,000 possibly being recalled. Daimler have refused to comment.

Top European News

  • Sweden’s Krona Soars as Debt Office Places Bet on Its Strength
  • U.K. Economy Barely Grows as Households Rein in Spending
  • BT Is Said to Draw Interest in U.K. Fixed Network Openreac
  • The Tories Who Could Force May to Keep Britain Closer to Europe

In FX, the USD resides in modest positive territory (+0.1%) albeit off best levels as the greenback struggles to recoup some of the postFOMC minutes losses. Subsequently EUR/USD was knocked back below 1.1700 in early trade but failed to  make a test of the 2018 low at 1.1677 as the recent pullback in the USD moved back onto a 1.1700 handle. In terms of EZ data, this morning’s German IFO release came in slightly ahead of expectations but questions nonetheless remain about the EZ’s economic performance with ABN Amro suggesting ‘The combination of ongoing weakness in underlying inflationary pressures and more uncertainty about the economic growth outlook strengthens the case for the ECB to exit at only a very slow pace’. Elsewhere, GBP/USD remains firmly below 1.3400 with GBP softer against its major counterparts in what’s been a busy week of tier 1 data for the UK after Wednesday’s soft inflation figures and yesterday’s upbeat retail report. Today was the turn of GDP which was a key focus for traders after the prelim reading derailed expectations of a May hike by the BoE. However, the GBP failed to gain any notable traction off the figures with the Q/Q and Y/Y readings both unrevised as expected, albeit coupled with lacklustre business investment metrics. USD/JPY hovers around the 109.50 level and off worst levels as the broadly firmer USD out-muscles the JPY amid touted shortcovering and softer than anticipated inflation metrics overnight. Further direction for the pair will  likely come from the broader risktone which has been a guiding force for the pair throughout the week as trade and  geopolitical concerns have prompted a FTQ across the space.

In commodities, oil is set to close the week in the red for the first time this month as both WTI and Brent are negative for the day at USD 69.31 and USD 76.95 respectively. This comes amid confirmation of a potential easing of supply cuts by OPEC to make up for the lost capacity of Venezuela and Iran with Russian Oil Minister Novak stating that all proposals will be discussed in June when asked about possible oil production increase by 1mln bpd. In addition to this the Saudi Energy Minister said they are certainly prepared to adjust policy in June, and release of supply will be gradual, adding that there is likely to be an oil supply boost in the second half of 2018. Furthermore, SocGen have revised their oil forecast higher for Q4 2018 with Brent revised to USD 78/bbl (+USD 14) and WTI revised to USD 73/bbl (+USD 13). Gold is currently trading flat as safe haven demand softens the blow of profit taking heading into the weekend. Steel strengthening as concerns over demand diminish alongside declining inventories. Copper and nickel also rising, with nickel hitting near 3 year highs, spurred on by increasing base metals prices.

Looking at today’s calendar, the flash April durable and capital goods orders will likely be the highlight, while the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey is also due. Away from that, EU finance ministers are due to discuss the latest on Brexit negotiations, while Russian President Putin, France President Macron, Japan’s Abe and IMF’s Lagarde take part in a panel. Elsewhere, the ECB’s Villeroy and Coeure will speak while the Fed’s Powell and BOE’s Carney will attend a conference in Stockholm.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: U.S. Durable Goods Orders, April P, est. -1.3%, prior 2.6%;
    • Less Transportation, April P, est. 0.5%, prior 0.1%
    • Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, April P, est. 0.7%, prior -0.4%
  • 10am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 98.8, prior 98.8; Current Conditions, est. 98.6, prior 113.3; Expectations, prior 89.5

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Ticket to the Champions League final tomorrow? Tick. Accommodation? Tick. Permission to be away from the family for the weekend? A surprising tick. Means of getting to Kiev? Absolutely none! Well not without a 4-legged connection via a couple of different continents that might have kept me away for longer than my marriage could survive. As such I’ll be cracking open a bottle of claret in front of the TV tomorrow night at home and hopefully seeing Liverpool lift one of the biggest trophies in all global sport. I must say I was intimidated by an interview with Ronaldo yesterday who said at 33 he felt he could go on playing until 41 and that he has the body of a 23 year old. I’m 44 in a couple of weeks and feel like I have the body of a 63 year old. Apologies to all the 63 year olds out there reading this.

This week has aged all of us as you can’t look at the screen at the moment without seeing a negative macro headline. Italy, North Korea, China/US trade, wider tariff fears, Turkey, weak PMIs and the usual Brexit shenanigans have all traded blows in an attempt to grab centre stage.

Starting with the US, President Trump has cancelled his planned summit with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, citing “open hostility” from the regime and warned that the US military “is ready if necessary” and has “massive nuclear” capabilities. Notably, there seems to be some hope that talks may restart further down the track which capped the downside yesterday.

Following on, the S&P initially traded c1% lower but pared back losses to close -0.20%. Within the S&P, the energy (-1.7%) and financials sector were hit the hardest, with the former not helped by WTI oil falling for the third straight day (-1.57% to $70.71/bbl) as Russia’s energy minister noted that OPEC and its partners will discuss phasing out supply curbs at a meeting in June. Over in Europe, all bourses trended lower (Stoxx 600 -0.52%; FTSE -0.92%; DAX -0.94%), with the DAX weighed down auto stocks (-2.5%) as President Trump ordered investigations into whether car imports into the US threaten national security.  Conversely, government bonds continued to firm with core 10y bond yields down 2-5bp (UST 10y -1.6bp; OATs -4.9bp) while Bunds (-3.5bp) fell to the lowest since mid-January. Italian BTPs were little changed (-0.4bp) as the news flow somewhat stabilised. The Dutch Finance Minister Hoekstra is withholding judgement on the new Italian government for now, as “we need to judge (them) by its deeds”, while Germany’s Finance Minister Scholz was more positive as he noted that the new Premier “…has expressed himself in a very pro-European way…” and that “the discussion with the President has proven to be very helpful”.

On the other side, Italy’s new Premier-designate Mr Conte is expected to provide the Head of State with a list of candidates for Ministry posts as early as today. Elsewhere, the League’s Mr Salvini noted “we don’t want to destroy,  but rather to help Italy to have a say once again at the European and global level”. So lots bubbling along before we find out how rhetoric would translate into policies.

This morning in Asia, markets are paring back losses to be modestly lower, in part as North Korea still seem to be open to talks as the Vice Foreign Minister Kim Kye Gwan released a statement which “express our intent that there is a willingness to sit (with the US) at any time, in any way to resolve issues”. Across the region, the Kospi (-0.22%), Hang Seng (-0.26%), and Shanghai Comp. (-0.07%) are all down while the Nikkei is marginally up as we type.

Now recapping other markets performance from yesterday. The US dollar index weakened -0.24% while the Euro and Sterling rose 0.20% and 0.25% respectively. In Turkey, the support from its emergency rate hike seemed to be short lived as the Lira resumed its decline vs. the USD yesterday (-2.89%). Later on, in his election campaign speech, President Erdogan pledged to support economic growth, keep inflation at single digits and erase the current account deficit, but did not elaborate on the details. This morning, the Lira is down c1% and getting closer to the  preintervention intra-day record lows. In commodities, Gold jumped the most in c1 month yesterday with the risk off bias (Gold +0.87%; Silver +1.30%) while other base metal also advanced (Copper +0.49%; Zinc +0.58%; Aluminium +0.85%).
Turning back to oil prices, DB’s Michael Hsueh believes that reports of progress towards an OPEC/non-OPEC unwind of supply discipline should be taken with a grain of salt. His view is that the progression of these talks is more likely to stabilize price rather than start a meaningful downtrend (>5%), given OPEC’s propensity to err on the tighter side. Overall, he expects coalition countries will agree only minimal supply easing which would be consistent with an oil market deficit in 2019 and by implication, prices venturing above Brent US$80+/bbl on a 6-month view.

Now moving onto the US rates outlook, the Fed’s Harker noted that three rate hikes this year continues to be his base case and he has not “moved far from that”. He added that “…we’re getting close to neutral (rates, which is)…say 2.75% to 3%” and that “if we see inflation start to accelerate, then I would be open to a fourth hike this year, but I’d have to see evidence of that first”. Elsewhere, the Fed’s Bostic reiterated that he is comfortable with three rate hikes for this year.

Back in Europe, the ECB has released its latest Financial Stability Review and the “account” of its most recent Governing Council meeting. The FSR noted that systemic risk for the Euro area had remained low over the past six months, with the sovereign sector more resilient due to the improved macroeconomic outlook. On the accounts, it noted “broad agreement” by Council members with Chief economist Mr Praet’s assessment that measures of underlying inflation had moved sideways since the March meeting and had yet to show signs of a sustained upward trend. Earlier yesterday, Mr Praet also reiterated that “economic conditions (in the EU bloc) are good – there are clouds, but economic conditions are good”.

Finally on President Trump’s potential tariffs on imported cars, the Canadian PM Trudeau told Reuters that he is “…trying to figure out where the possible national security connection is” and added that “we know that (the higher tariffs) is very much linked to ongoing negotiations around moving forward on NAFTA”. Elsewhere, a spokesman for  Mexico’s President Pena Nieto said “Mexico is not going to negotiate on the basis of pressure”, although unnamed sources have told Reuters that Mexico has made a new NAFTA offer after the US launched its probe on car tariffs.

Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the May Kansas City Fed manufacturing index was above market and rose 3pts mom to a fresh record high of 29 (vs. 20 expected).

The production and new orders indices firmed, but the prices received index fell back from last month’s decade-high. The April existing home sales fell -2.5% mom to 5.46m (vs. 5.55m expected), impacted by the lack of available inventory as the number of homes for sale fell 6.2% yoy. Conversely, home prices in 1Q rose 6.9% yoy, the highest start to the year since 2006. Elsewhere, the weekly initial jobless claims rose to a seven week high at 234k (vs. 220k expected) while continuing claims (1,741k vs. 1,746k expected) were broadly in line.

In Europe, the final reading for Germany’s 1Q GDP was confirmed at 0.3% qoq. DB’s Marc Schattenberg expects some rebound in Q2 GDP growth but the decline in the IFO and softer PMIs suggest that the deceleration in Q1 was not just due to one offs but also reflects some moderations in the cycle. The June GfK consumer confidence was marginally below expectations at 10.7 (vs. 10.8).

Elsewhere, France’s May manufacturing confidence (109 vs. 108 expected) and business confidence (106 vs. 108 expected) indicators were mixed but broadly in line. Finally, the April UK retail sales ex-auto rebounded more than expected to 1.3% mom (vs. 0.5% expected), buoyed by shoppers responding to the more conducive Spring weather.

As for today, the May IFO survey in Germany and Q1 GDP report in the UK, including the various growth components is due. In the US flash April durable and capital goods orders will likely be the highlight, while the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey is also due. Away from that, EU finance ministers are due to discuss the latest on Brexit negotiations, while Russian President Putin, France President Macron, Japan’s Abe and IMF’s Lagarde take part in a panel. Elsewhere, the ECB’s Villeroy and Coeure will speak while the Fed’s Powell and BOE’s Carney will attend a conference in Stockholm.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed DOWN 13.35 points or  0.42%   /Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 172.37 points or 0.56%    / The Nikkei closed UP 13.78 POINTS OR 0.06% /Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .05%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.3893/Oil DOWN to 69.04 dollars per barrel for WTI and 76.84 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN/MIXED.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AT 6.3883 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.3812/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING MUCH WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE A FULL TRADE WAR IS BEGINNING/

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

North Korea/South Korea/usa

That did not take long: North Korea is now crawling trying to desperately convince Trump for the summit

(courtesy zerohedge)

North Korea Comes Crawling Back: Stresses

“Desperate Need” For Summit “Whenever,

However”

Update: As if the earlier begging was not enough, it appears Kim wants to make sure that President Trump is aware of his efforts and desire to meet.

Yonhap reports that North Korea’s state media said Friday the demolition of its only known nuclear test site has demonstrated its “peace-loving” efforts and pursuit of a “total halt” to nuclear tests.

As we detailed yesterday, North Korea officially demolished the test-site overnight, inviting a number of reporters to witness the event.

And today, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said in English.

“The dismantlement of the nuclear test ground is a vivid manifestation of the DPRK government’s fixed peace-loving stand to join in the international aspiration and efforts for total halt to the nuclear test and make positive contribution to building a nuclear free world,”

The KCNA added that the demolition of the tunnels and other surrounding facilities, including a communications center, power systems and observation centers, was carried out “completely” and “with transparency.”

*  *  *

It appears that Trump “jilted North Korean lover” approach may have been just what the doctor ordered.

Literally minutes after we said that most experts expected a violent, angry outburst from North Korea’s president in response to Trump’s unexpected cancellation of the Singapore June 12 summit, such as this comment from Senator Jack Reed…

Senator Jack Reed

@SenJackReed

Spoke w/ @BloombergTV’s @kevcirilli about Pres Trump pulling out of planned nuclear summit w/ North Korea & how if Pres Trump had taken a more considered approach to Mr. Kim’s initial offer for a summit, we wouldn’t be in this position.https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2018-05-24/sen-reed-reacts-to-scrapped-u-s-north-korea-summit-video 

Sen. Reed Reacts to Scrapped U.S.-North Korea Summit

Senator Jack Reed, a Democrat from Rhode Island, gives his thoughts on U.S. President Donald Trump pulling out of the planned summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. He speaks with Bloomberg’s…

bloomberg.com

… a shocked North Korea is virtually begging for a meeting.

 

In a statement issued by state-run Korean Central News Agency, citing Vice Foreign Minister Kim Kye Gwan, North Korea announced it was willing to sit with the U.S. “whenever, however” through any method to try to resolve the outstanding issues.

Gwan said that whereas President Trump’s announcement to one-sidedly cancel the planned summit is unexpected and very regrettable, “North Korea’s goal and will to do everything for peace and stability of the Korean peninsula and mankind remains unchanged, and we are always willing to give time and opportunity to the US side with a big and open mind,” according to the statement. He added that “We express our intent that there is a willingness to sit at any time, in any way to resolve issues” and noted that President Trump’s decision to cancel the summit is “not what the world wants” and the summit is necessary to resolve the current hostile bilateral relationship.

Furthermore, North Korea appears to be backtracking on the recent diplomatic escalation and has effectively apologized, stating that “its previous remarks regarding the U.S.-North Korea summit had been in protest against strong US remarks towards North.

While we await the full KCNA statement, here are the key bullet points courtesy of Reuters and Bloomberg:

  • NORTH KOREA SAYS TRUMP’S SUMMIT CANCELLATION IS UNEXPECTED
  • NORTH KOREA SAYS IT’S WILLING TO MEET WITH U.S. AT ANY TIME
  • NORTH KOREA SAYS IT IS STILL WILLING TO RESOLVE ISSUES WITH UNITED STATES WHENEVER, HOWEVER
  • NORTH KOREA SAYS U.S.-N.KOREA SUMMIT IS NECESSARY TO RESOLVE CURRENT HOSTILE BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP
  • NORTH KOREA SAYS IT HAD WISHED `TRUMP MODEL’ COULD RESOLVE ISSUES
  • NORTH KOREA SAYS IT HAD HOPED FOR ISSUES REGARDING N.KOREA TO BE RESOLVED “TRUMP-STYLE”
  • NORTH KOREA SAYS NO CHANGE IN N. KOREA’S WILL TO DO BEST FOR PEACE
  • NORTH KOREA SAYS ITS PREVIOUS REMARKS REGARDING U.S.-N.KOREA SUMMIT HAD BEEN IN PROTEST AGAINST STRONG U.S. REMARKS TOWARDS NORTH
  • N.KOREA HAS WILLINGNESS TO GIVE CHANCE, TIME TO U.S.
  • NORTH KOREA HAS WILLINGNESS TO GIVE CHANCE, TIME TO U.S.

And the punchline:

  • NORTH KOREA SAYS CURRENT SITUATION REFLECTS DESPARATE NEED FOR SUMMIT

Or, to summarize North Korea’s response to Trump’s “dear John” letter:

Quoth the Raven@QTRResearch

North Korea right now

end

Trump gloats that Kim wants to come back to the table:

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Gloats Over Kim’s Response: “Very Good” To Receive “Warm And Productive Statement From North Korea”

Crushing the “liberal media’s” early excitement at the failure of Trump’s North Korea Summit (and Nobel Peace Prize) hopes, the president took a moment to gloat Friday morning at getting Kim back to the table, after receiving what he described as a “warm and productive” statement from North Korea less than a day after he canceled a planned summit that was supposed to signal the start of North Korea’s denuclearization.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Very good news to receive the warm and productive statement from North Korea. We will soon see where it will lead, hopefully to long and enduring prosperity and peace. Only time (and talent) will tell!

Trump quickly pivoted to North Korea after discussing the Democrats’ strategy of “so obviously rooting against us” during the US’s ongoing talks with North Korea. Then he compared the Dems’ defense of North Korea to the party’s defense of of the FBI’s decision to plant a mole within the Trump campaign.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Democrats are so obviously rooting against us in our negotiations with North Korea. Just like they are coming to the defense of MS 13 thugs, saying that they are individuals & must be nurtured, or asking to end your big Tax Cuts & raise your taxes instead. Dems have lost touch!

Before moving on to international relations, Trump tweeted a quick congratulations to the Federalist’s Mollie Hemingway, one of the first to publish the “monster story” about the FBI’s operation involving embedding a mole within the Trump campaign – a story that the mainstream media hates (perhaps because their bias stopped them from exposing it first).

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

“Everyone knows there was a Spy, and in fact the people who were involved in the Spying are admitting that there was a Spy…Widespread Spying involving multiple people.” Mollie Hemingway, The Federalist Senior Editor But the corrupt Mainstream Media hates this monster story!

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Can anyone even imagine having Spies placed in a competing campaign, by the people and party in absolute power, for the sole purpose of political advantage and gain? And to think that the party in question, even with the expenditure of far more money, LOST!

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

The Democrats are now alluding to the the concept that having an Informant placed in an opposing party’s campaign is different than having a Spy, as illegal as that may be. But what about an “Informant” who is paid a fortune and who “sets up” way earlier than the Russian Hoax?

So, will the Democrats rationalization of the mole sway the American people to take their side? Or is the public waking up to the fact that maybe Trump was right and that the FBI was indeed spying on him… sorry, using a “Confidential Human Source”,  as James Comey defined it, most certainly not a “spy.”

end

Mattis states that the meeting may still be on:

(courtesy zerohedge)

Mattis Says He “Received Possibly Good News” On N. Korea Summit As Trump Pivots

A day after President Trump declared that the historic summit planned between the US and North Korea had been cancelled, Trump appeared to pull off another pivot on Friday when he kept hopes of a meeting alive, saying that the Singapore meeting may still happen as scheduled on June 12, just hours after North Korea said they are very eager to get back to the negotiating table, and that the only reason for Pyongyang’s harsh language was because it was responding to similar language by the US.

“We’ll see what happens,” Trump told reporters at the White House on his way to Annapolis adding that  “it could even be the 12th. We’re talking to them now. They very much want to do it. We’d like to do it. We’ll see what happens” and then explained his negotiating strategy: “everybody plays games.”

BBC News (World)

@BBCWorld

“We’re going to see what happens, we’re talking to them now.”

President Trump says North Korea summit with Kim Jong-un could still be possible on 12 June

Trump credited the North’s “very nice statement” for prompting the US to reconsider its cancellation.

Shortly after, Reuters reported that Mattis echoed Trump’s optimismsaying that he had received “possibly good news” on the June 12 summit which “may be on if diplomats can pull it off.”

  • MATTIS SAYS RECEIVED POSSIBLY GOOD NEWS ON N.KOREA SUMMIT: RTRS
  • MATTIS SAYS SUMMIT MAY BE ON IF DIPLOMATS CAN PULL IT OFF: RTRS

Earlier in the day, Trump welcomed the conciliatory statement from North Korea saying it remained open to talks. Trump tweeted “Very good news to receive the warm and productive statement from North Korea. We will soon see where it will lead, hopefully to long and enduring prosperity and peace. Only time (and talent) will tell!”

In Pyongyang, North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Kim Kye Gwan said North Korea’s recent criticisms of certain U.S. officials had been a reaction to unbridled American rhetoric and that the current antagonism showed “the urgent necessity” for the summit. Gwan said Friday that his country still wanted to pursue peace and said it would give Washington more time to reconsider talks. He added that North Korea “inwardly highly appreciated” Trump for agreeing to the summit, and hoped the “Trump formula” would help lead to a deal between the adversaries.

“The first meeting would not solve all, but solving even one at a time in a phased way would make the relations get better rather than making them get worse,” Kim said in a statement carried Friday by the state-run Korean Central News Agency. “We would like to make known to the U.S. side once again that we have the intent to sit with the U.S. side to solve problem regardless of ways at any time.”

end

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

end

c) REPORT ON CHINA/HONG KONG

China/USA

Trump will now take a much harder line on China after the summit collapse

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump To Take “Much Harder Line On China”

After Summit Collapse: Report

It may have been the US that cancelled the North Korea peace summit, but China is ultimately responsible, at least according to veiled hints from President Trump. In his Thursday statement, Trump veered between threats of military action and entreaties to the North Korean dictator to schedule another summit after pulling the plug on their planned meeting. The president lamented that dialogue with Mr Kim had been “good until recently” when things abruptly changed. “I think I understand why that happened,” he said, but did not elaborate.

And, as we noted last night, ahead of North Korea’s conciliatory statement, Trump this week pointed a finger at Beijing saying that Kim’s attitude had shifted after a meeting with President Xi almost three weeks ago.

“There was a difference when Kim Jong-un left China the second time,” Mr Trump said. “I can’t say that I’m happy about it.” On both occasions, Washington learned of Mr Kim’s visit only after the fact.

And this morning, CNBC’s Eamon Javers said that the entire North Korean summit diversion may have simply been a prelude to something else entirely, namely Trump reverting to a “much harder line” on China trade talks after he canceled the summit.

I’m told there is an expectation inside the White House that President Trump will take a much harder line on China trade now that the NK summit is off. Aides believed that Trump was soft pedaling his natural instincts until June 12. Now that is gone.

Eamon Javers

@EamonJavers

I’m told there is an expectation inside the White House that President Trump will take a much harder line on China trade now that the NK summit is off. Aides believed that Trump was soft pedaling his natural instincts until June 12. Now that is gone.

Javers said watch for change in Trump’s stance as far as China trade talks are concerned, going into Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross’s meetings next weekend in China.

Meanwhile, Trump appears to already be gloating this morning, and in a tweet said that it was “very good news to receive the warm and productive statement from North Korea. We will soon see where it will lead, hopefully to long and enduring prosperity and peace. Only time (and talent) will tell!”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Very good news to receive the warm and productive statement from North Korea. We will soon see where it will lead, hopefully to long and enduring prosperity and peace. Only time (and talent) will tell!

Now we wait for his China tweets…

end
Trump and Xi agree on a tentative deal which includes a 1.3 billion fine and a change of management at ZTE/the hawks will be angry.
(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump-Xi Agree “Tentative” Deal On ZTE Including $1.3 Billion Fine, Fox News Reports

Just hours after North Korea came creeping back to the negotiating table with President Trump – following his cancellation of the Kim Summit talks, comments that he suspected China was behind Kim’s change of heart, and chatter that Trump “would take a much harder line on China”–  Fox News reports that a “tentative” deal has been reached with China’s President Xi over the giant Chinese telecoms company ZTE.

FOX Business

@FoxBusiness

JUST IN: Fox News reports @POTUS reaches tentative deal with China on ZTE.

Trump reportedly got another call from Xi, who reiterated that many jobs would be lost if the U.S. refused to sell parts to ZTE.

Fox News reports that Trump and Xi have agreed that ZTE will pay a $1.3 billion fine

Xi offered $500m fine and to change ZTE’s management…

and Trump countered with a demand for management changes, security guarantees, and a guarantee ZTE will buy parts via U.S. companies.

It is tough to discern which of the “good friends” Trump and Xi has the upper hand right now.. and what is motivating Trump.

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

The 10 yr Italian bond yield rises to 2.47 this morning triggering contagion problems

(courtesy zerohedge)

I

Italian Bonds Tumble, Triggering Goldman

“Contagion” Level As Political Crisis Erupts In

Spain

 

… there has been just one question: when does the Italian turmoil spread to the rest of Europe?

One answer was presented yesterday by Goldman Sachs which explicitly defined the “worst-case” contagion threshold level, and said to keep a close eye on the BTP-Bund spread and specifically whether it moves beyond 200 bps.

Should spreads convincingly move above 200bp, systemic spill-overs into EMU assets and beyond would likely increase. Italian sovereign risk has stayed for the most part local so far. Indeed, the 10-year German Bund has failed to break below 50bp, and Spanish bonds have increased a meager 10bp from their lows. This is consistent with our long-standing expectation that Italy would not become a systemic event. That said, should BTP 10-year spreads head above 200bp, the spill-over effects onto other EMU sovereigns would likely intensify.

Well, as of this morning, the 200bps Bund-BTP level has been officially breached. So, if Goldman is right, it may be time to start panicking.

Ironically, almost as if on cue, just as the Italy-Germany spread was blowing out, a flashing red Bloomberg headline hit, confirming the market’s worst fears:

  • SPANISH SOCIALISTS REGISTER NO-CONFIDENCE MOTION AGAINST RAJOY.

This confirmed reports overnight that Spain’s biggest opposition party, the PSOE or Socialist Party, was pushing for a no-confidence motion again Spain’s unpopular prime minister. The no-confidence call follows the National Court ruling on Thursday that former Popular Party officials had operated an illegal slush fund, as a result of which nearly 30 people were sentenced to a total of 351 years in prison.

And while Spain’s anti-establishment party Podemos has already called for a Raoy no-confidence vote, the Socialist Party joining that call makes this outcome more likely, but would still need the support of one more party as just these two do not guarantee Rajoy’s exit, and a Rajoy overthrow depends on the participation of market-friendly party Ciudadanos, Spain’s 4th largest party.

Well, following this headline, Rajoy’s political future suddenly appears to be over as Ciudadaons, which holds the balance of power in Spain’s government, just gave the PM a thumbs down.

  • CIUDADANOS WILLING TO BACK NO-CONFIDENCE VOTE AGAINST RAJOY

Immediately after the news, the selling started with Spain’s 10Y bonds erasing day’s gains, with the yield now higher by 4bps on the day, while Spain’s Ibex slumped, falling as much as 0.9%.

Which means that, while independent of the Italian bond rout, Europe’s political crisis may very soon have not one epicenter, but two: Rome and Madrid.

end

The European crisis is back:  European mid morning trading:

Italian and Spanish bonds crash amid political chaos

(courtesy zerohedge)

The European Crisis Is Back: Italian, Spanish Bonds Crash Amid Political Chaos

Just when you thought it was all over… the PIIGS chaos rears its ugly head as political crises start to spread across the periphery.

European stock markets are extremely mixed with the core relatively stable as the periphery plunges…

Italian banks stocks – so bloated with Italian sovereign debt – are accelerating lower…

Italian 2Y Yields are now at their highest since 2014…

As the entire BTP curve flattens dramatically…

And Italian sovereign risk is exploding…

Which leaves us wondering…

zerohedge@zerohedge

Is MF Global long Italian 2Y again?

As if Italy was not enough, Spain is now under pressure as PM Rajoy is under pressure from a potential ‘no confidence’ vote and Spanish bond yields (and sovereign risk) is blowing out…

The widest spread to Germany in almost 6 months…

Which means only one thing… the PIIGS are coming back to life and there is little that Draghi can do this time…

And all of this is weighing on the euro…

And finally – the scariest chart of all – reflecting the reality of Italy’s ‘Mini-BoT’ parallel currency concerns…

 

“Get back to work Mr. Draghi…”

end
This is scary:  Moody’s has just put Italy on a downgrade review and their current Baa2 rating may be knocked a couple of notches to junk status…that will be a death blow to Italy.
(courtesy zerohedge)

Moody’s Puts Italy On Downgrade Review, Junk Rating Possible

In a quite direct ‘threat’ to the newly formed Italian coalition, Moody’s warned that Italy will face a downgrade from its current Baa2 rating (potentially more than one notch to junk status) due to the lack of fiscal restraint in the new “contract” and the potential for delays to Italy’s structural reforms.

While Italy’s current rating is Baa2, and a downgrade would leave it at Baa3 (still investment grade), one look at Italian debt markets this week and one can be forgiven for thinking it is pricing in a multiple-notch downgrade to junk… and thus potentially making things awkward for its ECB bond-buying-benefactor and its banking system’s massive holdings of sovereign bonds.

Full Moody’s Report:

Moody’s Investors Service has today placed the Government of Italy’s ratings on review for possible downgrade. Ratings placed under review are the Baa2 long-term issuer and senior unsecured bond ratings as well as the (P) Baa2 medium-term MTN programme, the (P)Baa2 senior unsecured shelf, the Commercial Paper and other short-term ratings of Prime-2/(P) Prime-2 respectively.

The key drivers for today’s initiation of the review for downgrade are as follows:

1. The significant risk of a material weakening in Italy’s fiscal strength, given the fiscal plans of the new coalition government; and

2. The risk that the structural reform effort stalls, and that past reforms such as the pension reforms implemented in 2011 are reversed.

Moody’s will use the review period to assess the impact of the fiscal and economic policy platform of the new government on Italy’s credit profile, with a particular focus on the effect on the deficit and debt trajectories in the coming years. The review will also allow Moody’s to assess further whether the new government intends to continue to pursue growth-enhancing structural reforms, or conversely to reverse earlier reforms, such as the 2011 pension reform, as well as other economic policy initiatives in the coming months that may have an incidence on the country’s growth potential over the coming years.

Italy’s long-term and short-term foreign-currency bond and deposit ceilings remain unchanged at Aa2 and P-1, respectively. Italy’s long-term local-currency bond and deposit ceilings also remain unchanged at Aa2.

RATINGS RATIONALE

RATIONALE FOR PLACING RATING ON REVIEW FOR DOWNGRADE

On 23 May, more than two months after the general elections on 4 March, the president mandated the prime ministerial candidate put forward by the Five Star Movement (5SM) and the Lega to form a coalition government. Together, the two parties command a reasonably solid majority in the lower house and a narrower majority in the upper house, and should therefore receive a vote of confidence in both chambers of parliament, with the votes likely to take place in the coming days.

When Moody’s affirmed Italy’s rating with a negative outlook in October 2017, the rating agency noted that Italy’s key credit vulnerability is the government’s very high debt burden. Moody’s explained that it would consider stabilizing the Baa2 rating if it had a high level of confidence that the debt ratio would be put onto a sustained downward trend, which would require a reorientation of fiscal policy towards achieving higher primary surpluses on a sustained basis.

Conversely, Moody’s stated that the rating would likely be downgraded if policies enacted or anticipated proved insufficient to place the public debt ratio on a sustainable, downward trajectory in the coming years.

The first key driver of today’s decision to place the rating on review is Moody’s concern that the new government’s fiscal plans suggest that the latter will indeed be the case.

Far from offering the prospect of further fiscal consolidation, the “contract” for government signed by the two parties includes potentially costly tax and spending measures, without any clear proposals on how to fund those. While Moody’s notes that some of the coalition parties’ original proposals have been modified in the final coalition agreement, they would still lead to a weaker, not a stronger, fiscal position going forward. So far, Moody’s has assumed a gradual deficit reduction over the coming years, which in turn would allow for a very gradual decline in the public debt ratio.

The review will allow Moody’s to seek more clarity on the new government’s plans in this regard, and in particular on the scope of the tax and spending pledges, specifically the “flat tax” and “citizen income” proposals, as well as their potential financing sources and the timeline for their implementation. The parties have also stated their intention to avoid the legislated increase in the VAT rate for next year, which would bring additional revenues worth around 0.7% of GDP. Higher budget deficits would hamper any reduction in Italy’s very high public debt ratio of over 130% of GDP.

At the time of the last rating action, Moody’s also noted that the outlook could be stabilized if a more ambitious programme of structural reforms were to be implemented, which would result in a sustainably stronger growth performance of the Italian economy. Conversely, a failure to articulate and present a credible structural reform agenda would put downward pressure on the rating.

second driver of today’s action is Moody’s concern that, again, the latter will in fact be the case, and indeed that some important past reforms might be reversed. The rating agency will therefore also use the review period to assess some of the new government’s other pledges contained in the coalition agreement. The agency will explore what – if any – plans the government has to continue, in some form, the reform effort of the previous governments with further growth-enhancing economic and fiscal reforms.

A particular focus will be on the possible reversal of earlier reforms, such as the 2011 “Fornero” pension reform. In that particular case, marginal corrections with limited impact are not a source of concern. But a more generalized reduction in the retirement age would have a more material impact on the sustainability of the pension system. Moody’s notes that Italy already spends close to 16% of GDP on pensions, one of the highest ratios in advanced economies. While current long-term estimates forecast relatively stable pension spending as a share of GDP over the coming decades — in contrast to some other EU countries — those estimates rely on optimistic assumptions for population growth and employment trends. Rather than a reduction in the retirement age, Italy will probably require additional measures to maintain pension spending at a broadly stable ratio.

RATIONALE FOR NOT LOWERING ITALY’S Baa2 RATING AT THIS TIME

Moody’s recognizes that there inevitably exists substantial uncertainty whenever a new government is formed regarding that government’s intentions and capacity. Italy has maintained reasonably solid public finances for a long period of time and under different governments. Moody’s notes that the parties forming the new government seem to have accepted the need to maintain small budget deficits, given the limited fiscal space due to the very high debt ratio. It is also noteworthy that the new government’s “contract” does not include previous proposals that raised questions about the government’s commitment to Italy’s euro membership. More time is needed to assess what policies the new government is in fact likely and able to pursue.

The rating is also supported, for now at least, by the very low risk of a severe deterioration in Italy’s credit profile, such as could result from a far more confrontational stance vis-à-vis the euro area. Strong checks and balances and constitutional constraints exist which would impede any government from seeking to achieve fundamental changes to its role in, or obligations towards, the euro area in a way that would damage Italy’s credit profile. The Italian president holds significant power in ensuring that any Italian government honours its international commitments including those assumed by dint of membership of the euro area. Accordingly, while some of the above mentioned spending and tax plans place further doubt over Italy’s willingness and ability to meet its obligations under the EU fiscal compact and balanced budget rules, the risk of much more credit negative outcomes, up to and including exit from the euro area, remains very low.

The risk of a government liquidity crisis is also low, in Moody’s view. The government’s outstanding debt has a reasonably long average maturity (around seven years), debt management is very prudent and experienced, and while borrowing needs are substantial for this year and next (at around 22% of GDP), even significantly higher interest rates for newly issued debt would take a number of years to be reflected in materially higher government spending on debt interest. Monetary policy will remain an important support for government bond yields in all the euro area countries, including Italy.

Moody’s also notes that the Italian economy maintains significant underlying strengths and has been recovering from a prolonged period of very low growth. Italy’s economy is the third-largest in the euro area and its export and manufacturing sectors have experienced a solid recovery in recent quarters. While the public sector is highly indebted, the private sector generally has a much stronger balance sheet position. Leverage is low and households in particular have significant wealth and high levels of savings, an important buffer in a situation of stress.

WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING DOWN/UP

Rating drivers are essentially unchanged from the time of the previous action. Moody’s would likely downgrade the rating if, having assessed the new government’s proposed policies during the review, it were to conclude that its policies will be insufficient to place the public debt ratio on a sustainable, downward trajectory in the coming years. A failure to articulate and present a credible structural reform agenda which would enhance Italy’s economic growth prospects on a sustained basis, would be similarly negative for the rating.

Given the review, an upgrade is highly unlikely in the near future. Moody’s would consider confirming the Baa2 rating if, following the review, it had a high level of confidence that the debt ratio would be put onto a sustained downward trend. As before, this would require a reorientation of fiscal policy towards achieving higher primary surpluses on a sustained basis. The rating could also be confirmed if an ambitious programme of structural reforms were to be implemented by the new government, which would result in a sustainably stronger growth performance of the Italian economy.

The committee was called outside of the sovereign calendar dates for EU sovereign ratings, based on the event of the nomination of a new Italian government with a decidedly credit-negative fiscal and economic policy platform.

  • GDP per capita (PPP basis, US$): 36,877 (2016 Actual) (also known as Per Capita Income)
  • Real GDP growth (% change): 0.9% (2016 Actual) (also known as GDP Growth)
  • Inflation Rate (CPI, % change Dec/Dec): 0.5% (2016 Actual)
  • Gen. Gov. Financial Balance/GDP: -2.5% (2016 Actual) (also known as Fiscal Balance)
  • Current Account Balance/GDP: 2.6% (2016 Actual) (also known as External Balance)
  • External debt/GDP: [not available]
  • Level of economic development: High level of economic resilience
  • Default history: No default events (on bonds or loans) have been recorded since 1983.

8. EMERGING MARKET

end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 am

Euro/USA 1.1694 DOWN .0027/ REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ SPAIN VS CATALONIA/REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:/TRUMP HEALTH CARE DEFEAT//ITALIAN REFERENDUM DEFEAT/AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA FALLING INTEREST RATES AGAIN/HOUSTON FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES GREEN/MIXED

USA/JAPAN YEN 109.42   UP 0.109  (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/SIGNALS U TURN WITH INCREASED NEGATIVITY IN NIRP/JAPAN OUT OF WEAPONS TO FIGHT ECONOMIC DISASTER/

GBP/USA 1.3337 DOWN  0.0045  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.2934 UP .0049 (CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 27 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1694; / Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED DOWN 13.35 POINTS OR 0.42%  /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 172.37 POINTS OR 0.56% /AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN .05% / EUROPEAN BOURSES  ALL GREEN/MIXED

The NIKKEI: this FRIDAY morning CLOSED UP 13.78 OR 0.06%

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED ALL GREEN/MIXED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 172.37 POINTS OR 0.56%  / SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 13.35 POINTS OR 0.42%  /

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN .05%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 13.78 POINTS OR 0.06%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1305.60

silver:$16.69

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.96% !!! DOWN 4 IN POINTS from THURSDAY night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

The 30 yr bond yield 3.10 DOWN 2  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early  FRIDAY morning: 93.95 UP 19  CENT(S) from YESTERDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.95% UP 5  in basis point(s) yield from THURSDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.0.41%  DOWN 9/10   in basis points yield from THURSDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.466% UP 7  IN basis point yield from THURSDAY/

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.461  UP 6  POINTS in basis point yield from THURSDAY/

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 98 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO +.406%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY

END

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1661 DOWN .0060(Euro DOWN 60 Basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/

USA/Japan: 109.43 UP 0.118 Yen DOWN 12 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3314 DOWN .0067( POUND DOWN 67 BASIS POINTS)

USA/Canada 1.2972 UP  .0093 Canadian dollar DOWN 93 Basis points AS OIL FELL TO $67.73

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

This afternoon, the Euro was DOWN 60 to trade at 1.1661

The Yen ROSE to 109.430 for a LOSS of 12 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE

The POUND LOST BY 67 basis points, trading at 1.3314/

The Canadian dollar FELL by 95 basis points to 1.2970/ WITH WTI OIL FALLING TO : $67.73

The USA/Yuan closed AT 6.3917
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.041%  DOWN 9/10  IN BASIS POINTS / yield/
Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 5   IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 2.33 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.095  DOWN 4      in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 94.17  UP 40 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 1:00 PM PM

London: CLOSED UP 13.54 POINTS OR 0.18%
German Dax :CLOSED UP 82.92 OR 0.65%
Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 5.90 POINTS OR 0.11%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 169.50 POINTS OR 1.20%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 350.63 POINTS OR 1,54%

The Dow closed DOWN 58.67 POINTS OR 0.24%

NASDAQ closed UP 9.43  OR .13%4.00 PM EST

WTI Oil price; 67.73  1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 76.22 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE CROSS: 62.29 UP 73/100 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE LOWER BY 73 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS TO +.406% FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:30 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:$67.50

BRENT: $76.22

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.93%   THIS RAPID RISE IN YIELD IS ALSO VERY DANGEROUS/RECESSION COMING/DERIVATIVES FRY!!

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.09%/DEADLY

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1646 DOWN .0076  (DOWN 76 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:109.38 UP 0.070 YEN DOWN 7 BASIS POINTS/ .

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 94.26 UP 48 cent(s)/dangerous as the lower the dollar the higher the inflation.

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.3291 DOWN 0.0090  (FROM THURSDAY NIGHT DOWN 90 POINTS)

Canadian dollar: 1.2961 DOWN 75 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: +0.47%


VOLATILITY INDEX:  13.22  CLOSED  UP 0.69

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.319%  .

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

 

Bond Bear Bloodbath: EU Meltdown Sparks Safe-

Haven Surge

Well that escalated quickly… Italian asset manic-selling, US Treasury panic-buying

 

Ugly week for Chinese stocks…

 

But Italy (and now Spain) were probably the biggest headline-makers on the week…

  • Italian stocks worst week since Nov 2016 (US election)
  • Italian stocks worst two-week drop Jun 2016 (Brexit)
  • Italian banks worst week since Jun 2016 (Brexit)
  • Italian 2Y Spread to Bunds biggest spike since July 2012
  • Italian redenomination risk biggest spike ever to record high…

The Euro is down 8 of the last 9 weeks against the dollar…

European “VIX” spiked to its highest premium to US “VIX” since September of 2017…

And as Italian capital markets cratered, so US Treasuries were bid…

And gold…

And in US, while Trannies and Nasdaq outperformed, The Dow and Small Caps struggled to get green on the week…

 

FANG-ish stocks managed gains with NFLX best – now bigger than Comcast and Disney…

 

While EU Banks were ugly, US Banks suffered this week too…

 

HY Credit risk spiked most since Feb this week…

 

 

While stocks clung to the week’s gains, bond yields plunged…

 

Treasury Bonds had their best week in 13 months (10Y) and 30Y futs saw their biggest weekly price appreciation since July 2016.

 

10Y tumbled back below 3.00%…

 

and 30Y rallied off the crucial downtrend-level of around 3.23% – just as Bill Gross said…

 

And this won’t help as Specs added to already record net shorts this week…

 

The Dollar index ended the week unchanged after a 5-week win streak…

 

 

Overall an ugly week for cryptocurrencies… with Bitcoin outperforming and Bitcoin Cash worst…

 

With the dollar flat, PMs and copper largely eked out modest gains, but it was crude that was crushed…

 

WTI plunged back to a $67 handle this week – its worst week since February and worst day since June 2017

 

Gold managed to get back above – and cling to – $1300… for its best week since March…

 

But we do note the big swing in Gold/Silver (gold outperforming) today…

 

Finally, there’s this – Smart money is piling out of stocks at an unprecedented pace, accelerating this week…

 

Bonus Chart: Since The Fed’s “Dovish” FOMC Statement, bonds & bullion are bid, stocks unchanged and the dollar dumped…

END

USA DATA

Soft data, U. of Michigan sentiment slumps near 2018 lows with income expectations faltering

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

UMich Sentiment Slumps Near 2018 Lows As Income

Expectations Tumble

Preliminary data for May’s UMich sentiment survey showed a tumble in current conditions (and small rise in hope) but the final data showed both sliding notably intra-month with the headline sentiment index at its lowest since January.

  • Headline Sentiment slipped from 98.8 prelim to 98.0 final from 98.8 in April
  • Current Conditions slipped from 113.3 prelim to 111.8 final from 114.9 in April
  • Expectations slipped from 89.5 prelim to 89.1 final from 88.4 in April

As Bloomberg notes, consumer sentiment in the U.S. settled back to a four-month low in May amid less-favorable buying conditions for homes and big-ticket items, according to a University of Michigan report Friday.

Notably, consumers anticipated income gains of 1.6 percent, down from 2.2 percent in April and 2 percent last year.

 

Sentiment tumbled most for the wealthiest Americans…

“Net price references were the least favorable for household durables since just prior to the Great Recession, for vehicles since 1997, and for homes since 2006 — although higher home prices brightened prospects for selling homes,” Richard Curtin, director of the University of Michigan consumer survey, said in a statement.

“In past episodes, high and accelerating prices encouraged consumers to buy in advance of those increases. That response is largely absent in all markets except housing,” he said.

Year-ahead inflation expectations crept up to 2.8 percent, matching March as the highest since April 2016, from 2.7 percent in prior month.

Interestingly, Curtin notes that consumer reactions to the CPI inflation rate appear to have shifted in the past decade.

When asked to explain how their personal finances had changed, higher prices were cited to have worsened their financial situation by 8% in May, unchanged from last month and just above last year’s 7%. When examined over the past half century, these unaided references to inflation closely matched actual trends in the year-over-year change in the CPI – see the chart above.

That close relationship ended about a decade ago, and in the past year or so, as the CPI has risen, complaints about inflation have fallen. While gas price spikes could be cited as causing some of the recent divergence, those spikes were also widespread in the late 1970s and 1980s. While the reasons underlying the current divergence are unclear, it nonetheless signals a change in how consumers judge the impact of inflation on their personal finances. It may also suggest a change in their behavioral reaction to inflation.

And finally, confidence in a rising stock market dropped to its lowest since July 2017…

 

END

SWAMP STORIES

An outline of how the genesis of the phony Russian collusion started with the spy Halper the main instigator

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

FBI Spy Halper Made “False, Absurd” Claims Of

Russian Infiltration At Cambridge Involving

Flynn

FBI informant Stefan Halper, who infiltrated the Trump campaign for the FBI during the 2016 election for the purposes of espionage, said that Russians had infiltrated the University of Cambridge where he works – allegations which those involved say are “false” and “absurd.” 

Halper made the “false allegations” in December 2016 about a Russian co-worker based on her interactions with former national security adviser Michael Flynn at a February 2014 Cambridge Intelligence Seminar (CIS) – while Flynn was President Obama’s Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA).

A historian and Russian intelligence researcher at Cambridge, Svetlana Lokhova, told TheDCNF that Halper is behind allegations made about her and Flynn during the retired general’s visit to Cambridge in 2014, when he served as director of the Defense Intelligence Agency. –Daily Caller

“Stef Halper, who is currently under [Department of Justice] investigation for his activities, has been revealed by [The New York Times] as the source of the false allegations about me and General Flynn,” said Lokhova, a British citizen who was born in Russia.

Halper told the Financial Times that he was quitting the CIS due to “unacceptable Russian influence on the group,” which as the Daily Caller notes, “The evidence of Russian penetration was scant, with news reports citing a nearly $2,700 contribution to CIS from a Russia-based company called Veruscript.”

Peter Martland, Stefan Halper and Christopher Andrew

Prof Andrew, whose books on the KGB are among the most exhaustive on the history of Russian information warfare as well as the infamous Cambridge spy ring of the 1930s, said the suggestion of a Russian covert operation to compromise the seminar was “absurd”.

The seminar is “entirely unclassified” Prof Andrew pointed out, adding that the new Journal of Intelligence and Terrorism was not formally affiliated to the gathering.

The seminar, established by Christopher Andrew, the official historian of MI5 and former chairman of the history faculty at the university, is one of the most respected networks in its field. FT

The 73-year-old American who split his time between his Virginia farm and teaching at Cambridge, approached several Trump campaign aides during the 2016 US election for purposes of espionage – on behalf of the FBI, headed at the time by the recently very quiet James Comey. Halper continued to spy on Trump campaign aide Carter Page well after the election, and now we find that he was trying to infiltrate the Trump administration.

In short:  

  • The FBI recruited Halper to spy on the Trump campaign in the summer of 2016
  • After forming relationships with two Trump campaign aides, Halper invited one of them, George Papadopoulos, to work on a policy paper in London, where the 73-year-old professor/spy brought up Russian emails
  • Halper approached Trump aide Carter Page during an election-themed conference at Cambridge on July 11, 2016. The two would stay in contact for the next 14 months, frequently meeting and exchanging emails.
  • Then, after the election, Halper reportedly tried to infiltrate the Trump administration, pushing for a job in the State Department, according to Axios.

Halper, a Clinton supporter, former government official and longtime spook for the CIA and FBI, was outed as the FBI informant who infiltrated the Trump campaign after the Washington Post and the New York Times ran reports that corroborated a March report by the Daily Callerdetailing Halper’s outreach to several low-level aides to the Trump campaign, including Carter Page, George Papadopoulos, and a cup of coffee with campaign co-chair Sam Clovis.

Halper, 73, cut a colorful figure as he strolled through diplomatic, academic, and espionage circles, having served in the Reagan, Ford, and Nixon administrations. –Daily Mail

These contacts are notable, as Halper’s infiltration of the Trump campaign corresponds with the two of the four targets of the FBI’s Operation Crossfire Hurricane – in which the agency sent counterintelligence agent Peter Strzok and others to a London meeting in the Summer of 2016 with former Australian diplomat Alexander Downer – who says Papadopoulos drunkenly admitted to knowing that the Russians had Hillary Clinton’s emails.

Downer – the source of the Papadopoulos intel, and Halper – who conned Papadopoulos months later, are linked through UK-based Haklyut & Co.an opposition research and intelligence firm – founded by three former British intelligence operatives in 1995 to provide the kind of otherwise inaccessible research for which select governments and Fortune 500 corporations pay huge sums

Downer – a good friend of the Clintons, has been on their advisory board for a decade, while Halper is connected to Hakluyt through Director of U.S. operations Jonathan Clarke, with whom he has co-authored two books. (h/t themarketswork.com)

And what’s this? 

The bait and the switch in the same room…

end

Yesterday the Dept of Justice briefs Congress on the FBI informant

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

DOJ Briefs Congress On FBI Informant

The GOP is now “getting the cooperation necessary” to satisfy their demands for classified materials from the Department of Justice (DOJ) concerning the early stages of the FBI’s counterintelligence operation against the Trump campaign, according to House Speaker Paul Ryan.

According to –Bloomberg, lawmakers met with DOJ officials twice on Thursday, acquiescing to demands from President Trump following revelations that the FBI enlisted confidential informant Stefan Halper to infiltrate the Trump campaign as part of an espionage operation.

Ryan spoke as Justice Department officials held two meetings with lawmakers on Thursday, succumbing to demands from President Donald Trump after revelations that the FBI had a confidential informant make contact with officials on Trump’s presidential campaign in 2016.

House Intelligence Chairman Devin Nunes has subpoenaed the Justice Department and FBI for secret information about the informant. Critics, including top congressional Democrats, argue that Republicans want to use the information to undercut the Russia investigation, which is now being led by Special Counsel Robert Mueller. –Bloomberg

Following the second briefing, Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA), the top-ranking Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee told reporters that there is “no evidence to support any allegation the FBI or any intelligence agency planted a spy in the Trump campaign.”  Perhaps that’s because nobody is claiming they did…

Halper, who was paid handsomely by the Obama Department of Defenseinfiltrated the campaign from the outside, gaining the trust of aides George Papadopoulos and Carter Page, then conning them into believing he was interested in legitimate business – including offering Papadopoulos $3,000 to travel to London and work on a foreign policy paper.

President Trump has referred to the scandal as “SPYGATE” – tweeting several times about the FBI’s informant, Halper, and how much he was paid by the previous administration.

White House Chief of Staff John Kelly along with Emmet Flood, as White House attorney working on the Russia probe, made several remarks before departing the two DOJ/DNI briefings.

They spoke “to relay the president’s desire for as much openness as possible under the law,” White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said in a statement. “They also conveyed the president’s understanding of the need to protect human intelligence services and the importance of communication between the branches of government.

Senator Mark Warner, the top Democrat on the Intelligence Committee, said “there’s never been a Gang of 8 meeting with a White House presence.” He was referring to a group of eight bipartisan congressional leaders who receive briefings on the nation’s most sensitive intelligence. -Bloomberg

“I look forward to the prompt completion of the intelligence committee’s oversight work in this area now that they are getting the cooperation necessary for them to complete their work while protecting sources and methods,” Ryan said.

end

WSJ Exposes The Real ‘Constitutional Crisis’

The Wall Street Journal continues to counter  the  liberal mainstream media’s anti-Trump-ness, dropping uncomfortable truth-bombs and refusing to back off its intense pressure to get to the truth and hold those responsible, accountable; in a forum that is hard for the establishment to shrug off as ‘Alt-Right’ or ‘Nazi’ or be ‘punished’ by search- and social-media-giants.

And once again Kimberley Strassel – who by now has become the focus of social media attacks for her truth-seeking and honest reportage – does it again this morning, as she asks, rhetorically, why the FBI and Justice Department contuning evading congressional oversight?

Via The Wall Street Journal,

Democrats and their media allies are again shouting “constitutional crisis,” this time claiming President Trump has waded too far into the Russia investigation. The howls are a diversion from the actual crisis: the Justice Department’s unprecedented contempt for duly elected representatives, and the lasting harm it is doing to law enforcement and to the department’s relationship with Congress.

The conceit of those claiming Mr. Trump has crossed some line in ordering the Justice Department to comply with oversight is that “investigators” are beyond question. We are meant to take them at their word that they did everything appropriately. Never mind that the revelations of warrants and spies and dirty dossiers and biased text messages already show otherwise.

We are told that Mr. Trump cannot be allowed to have any say over the Justice Department’s actions, since this might make him privy to sensitive details about an investigation into himself. We are also told that Congress – a separate branch of government, a primary duty of which is oversight – cannot be allowed to access Justice Department material. House Intelligence Committee Chairman Devin Nunes can’t be trusted to view classified information – something every intelligence chairman has done – since he might blow a source or method, or tip off the president.

That’s a political judgment, but it holds no authority. The Constitution set up Congress to act as a check on the executive branch—and it’s got more than enough cause to do some checking here. Yet the Justice Department and Federal Bureau of Investigation have spent a year disrespecting Congress—flouting subpoenas, ignoring requests, hiding witnesses, blacking out information, and leaking accusations.

Senate Judiciary Chairman Chuck Grassley has not been allowed to question a single current or former Justice or FBI official involved in this affair. Not one. He’s also more than a year into his demand for the transcript of former national security adviser Mike Flynn’s infamous call with the Russian ambassador, as well as reports from the FBI agents who interviewed Mr. Flynn. And still nothing.

Ron Johnson, chairman of the Senate Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee, is being stonewalled on at least three inquiries. The House Judiciary and Oversight committee chairmen required a full-blown summit in April with Justice Department officials to get movement on their own subpoena. The FBI continues to block a fuller release of the House Intelligence Committee’s Russia report.

Not that the documents that Justice sends over are of much use. Mr. Grassley this week excoriated the department for its routine practice of redacting key information, and for similarly refusing to provide a “privilege log” that details the legal basis for withholding information. His team recently discovered that one of the items Justice had scrubbed from the Peter Strzok-Lisa Page texts was the duo’s concern that former Deputy FBI Director Andrew McCabe had a $70,000 conference table. (Was it lacquered with unicorn tears?) A separate text refers to an investigation that the White House is “running,” but conveniently blacks out which one. The FBI won’t answer Mr. Johnson’s questions about who is doing the redacting.

This intransigence is creating an unprecedented toxicity between law enforcement and Congress, undermining what has long been a cooperative and vital relationship.It is also pushing lawmakers ever closer to holding Justice Department officials in contempt or impeaching them. Congress hasn’t impeached a member of the executive branch (presidents excepted) since the 19th century. Let’s agree such a step would amount to a real crisis. And the pressure to use these tools to get disclosure is growing, as congressional Republicans worry about losing their oversight authority in the midterms, and suspect the Justice Department is stringing them along for that very reason.

Which is why Mr. Trump was right to order that Justice comply with Mr. Nunes’s demands for documents about the alleged FBI spy Stefan Halper and other information related to the catalyst of this investigation. As president, he has a duty to protect the reputation and integrity of the Justice Department—even from its own leaders. Forcing officials to comply with legitimate congressional oversight is far better than sitting back to watch those same officials singe the institution and its relationship with Congress in a flame of impeachment resolutions.

And finally, Strassel has some advice on how to resolve this… Mr. Trump has an even quicker way to bring the hostility to an end.

He can – and should – declassify everything possible, letting Congress and the public see the truth.

That would put an end to the daily spin and conspiracy theories. It would puncture Democratic arguments that the administration is seeking to gain this information only for itself, to “undermine” an investigation.

And it would end the Justice Department’s campaign of secrecy, which has done such harm to its reputation with the public and with Congress.

Just what will the deep state do to avoid this eventuality? Do they have anything left to throw at Trump?

end
this guy is nuts:  The FBI was not spying on Trump” it was benign information gathering
give me a break…
(courtesy zerohedge)

Clapper: The FBI Wasn’t Spying On Trump, It Was “Benign Information Gathering”

Backpedaling intensifies…

Former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper – who much like former FBI Director James Comey is peddling a book right now, accused President Trump of twisting his words after a bizarre interview on The View on Tuesday.

When Clapper was asked if the FBI was spying on the Trump campaign, he replied “They were spying on – a term I don’t particularly like, but on what the Russians were doing.” (By sending a spy to perform espionage on several members of the Trump campaign)

Jack Posobiec🇺🇸

@JackPosobiec

Collage of Clapper on TV today

Any body language experts want to weigh in?

In response to Clapper’s statement, President Trump tweeted: “Clapper has now admitted that there was Spying in my campaign. Large dollars were paid to the Spy, far beyond normal. Starting to look like one of the biggest political scandals in U.S. history. SPYGATE – a terrible thing!”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Clapper has now admitted that there was Spying in my campaign. Large dollars were paid to the Spy, far beyond normal. Starting to look like one of the biggest political scandals in U.S. history. SPYGATE – a terrible thing!

When asked by Axios about Trump’s Tweet, Clapper said that the President “deliberately spun it,” likening it to “George Orwell – up is down, black is white, peace is war.” 

But the punchline was Clapper’s “explanation” of what really happened: “I took aversion to the word spy, it was the most benign version of information gathering.”

The important thing is the whole reason the FBI was doing this was concern over what the Russians were doing to infiltrate the campaign, not spying on the campaign. Of course, he turned that completely upside-down in his tweet, as he is wont to do.” -James Clapper

We’re not sure if Clapper, the former Director of National Intelligence, was trying to be humorous or if he just doesn’t understand what the word “spy” means – as it encompasses all forms of covert information collection, including the use of human intelligence, upstream data collection and all forms of espionage in between.

The Cambridge Academic Content Dictionary defines Spy as:

END

Let us wrap up the week with this gem from Greg Hunter

(courtesy Greg Hunter)

China’s Crown Jewel of Crazy, Spygate Bigger than Watergate, Economic Update

By Greg Hunter On May 25, 2018 In Weekly News Wrap-Ups

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (WNW 336 5.25.18)

Trump canceled the June 12th summit with Kim Jung Un, and the North Korean leader is back within hours wanting to continue the talks. What gives? Why so crazy? North Korea is China’s crown jewel of crazy, and it is not going to give that up without getting major concessions from Trump on trade and the South China Sea. Anyone thinking the U.S. is negotiating with North Korea is nuts. The U.S., in reality, is in negotiations with China, and that is why this is going to be drawn out.

It’s now called “Spygate,” and it makes Watergate look like a water balloon fight. This is the biggest scandal in U.S. history. The Obama Administration tried to frame Donald Trump for conspiring with the Russians and used every dirty trick in the book to try to take him down, including the use of spies in his campaign. People are going to be jailed over this one, and I mean top people. This is treason against the Constitution and our elections.

Is the economy really doing that well? Lots of data says parts of the economy are NOT doing well at all. Is the Fed going to raise interest rates? Is the Fed going to be forced to bring back easy money and reverse course to save a faltering economy just before the midterms? Greg has an update.

Join Greg Hunter as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up.

After the Interview:

Mark Taylor, author of the popular book “The Trump Prophecies” will be the guest for the “Early Sunday Release.”

Video Link

https://usawatchdog.com/chinas-crown-jewel-of- crazy-spygate-bigger-than-watergate-economic-update/

-END-

 

I WOULD LIKE TO WISH ALL OUR AMERICAN FRIENDS A SAFE MEMORIAL WEEKEND

I will  see you TUESDAY night

HARVEY

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: