May 30

 

GOLD: $1302.40  UP  $2.70  (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver: $16.53 UP  16 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Closing access prices:

Gold $1301.50

silver: $16.53

For comex gold:

MAY/

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR MAY CONTRACT:0 NOTICE(S) FOR NIL OZ.

TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR 731 FOR 73100 OZ (2.274 tonnes)

For silver:

MAY

100 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

500,000 OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 7257 for 36,285,000 oz

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Bitcoin: BID $7452/OFFER $7542: UP $41(morning)

Bitcoin: BID/ $7281/offer $7381: DOWN $133  (CLOSING/5 PM)

end

First Shanghai gold fix comes at 10 pm est

The second Shanghai gold fix:  2:15 pm

First Shanghai gold fix gold: 10 pm est: 1305.33

NY price  at the same time: 1300.10

PREMIUM TO NY SPOT: $5.23

Second gold fix early this morning: 1302.65

USA gold at the exact same time:1298.65

PREMIUM TO NY SPOT:  $4.00

AGAIN, SHANGHAI REJECTS NEW YORK PRICING.

WE WILL NOT PROVIDE LONDON FIXES AS THEY ARE NOT ACCURATE AS TO WHAT IS GOING ON AT THE SAME TIME FRAME.

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY AN STRONG 2146 CONTRACTS FROM  205,464  UP TO 207,610  DESPITE YESTERDAY’S 16 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING.    WE ARE NOW WITNESSING OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY COMEX LONG LIQUIDATION AS WE ENTERED INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY AS LONGS PACK THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATE OVER TO LONDON.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP :   1133 EFP’S FOR JULY AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE OF 1133 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1133 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1133 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 5.665 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 16 CENT LOSS IN  SILVER PRICE  AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR MAY COMEX DELIVERY. (36.285 MILLION OZ)

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF MAY: (FINAL)

40,434 CONTRACTS (FOR 21 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 40,434 CONTRACTS) OR 202,170MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1925 CONTRACTS OR 9.627 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH:  202.170 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 28.87% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:            1,347.5      MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018:                                               236.879     MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018:                                               244.95         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018:                                       236.67         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL 2018:                                          385.75         MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX OF 2146 DESPITE THE 16 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE.  WE HAVE NOW ENTERED THE NEW ACTIVE MONTH OF MAY.   THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT IN FACT WE HAD AN HUMONGOUS SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1133 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) . FROM THE CME DATA:  1133 EFP CONTRACTS FOR JULY, AND ZERO FOR ALL OVER MONTHS   FOR  A DELIVERABLE FORWARD CONTRACT OVER IN LONDON WITH A FIAT BONUS (TOTAL: 1133). TODAY WE GAINED A HUGE 4355 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: i.e.1133 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH AN INCREASE OF 2146  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH THE 16 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $16.37 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN THIS  ACTIVE MAY DELIVERY MONTH. IT SURE LOOKS LIKE A FAILED BANKER SHORT COVERING EXERCISE!!

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.038 MILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 148% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT MAY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 100 NOTICE(S) FOR 500,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER, WE HAVE NOW SET THE NEW RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51  ON APRIL 9.2018.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL: 2.485 MILLION OZ AND MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/ (FINAL)

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT). IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE BANKER CAPITULATION IN SILVER AS THEY STRUGGLE TO REMOVE SOME OF THEIR HUGE OBLIGATIONS.

In gold, the open interest FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE 5184 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 469,382 WITH THE LOSS IN THE GOLD PRICE/YESTERDAY’S TRADING (LOSS OF $4.50).  WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY. NO DOUBT THE BOYS ARE CASHING IN THEIR COMEX LONGS TO BEGIN THE PROCESS TO MOVE INTO LONDON FORWARDS.  THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 14,900 CONTRACTS :   JUNE SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 4026 CONTRACTS , AND AUGUST SAW THE ISSUANCE OF:  10,874 CONTRACTS WITH ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The new OI for the gold complex rests at 469,382. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED OI GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 5184 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND A GIGANTIC SIZED 14,900 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON.THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN: 9716 CONTRACTS OR 971,600 OZ = 30.22 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A LOSS OF $4.50

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 5399  EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY : 205,895 CONTRACTS OR 20,589,500  OZ OR 640.42 TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 9,804 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY OR 980,400 OZ/ TRADING DAY),,

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 21 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 640.42 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 640.42/2550 x 100% TONNES =  25.11% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN APRIL ALONE.*** THE ACCUMULATION OF EFP CONTRACTS IS RISING PER MONTH.

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE:  3,398.03*  TONNES   *SURPASSED ANNUAL PROD’N

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018:           653.22  TONNES

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018:         649.45 TONNES

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018:                741.89 TONNES  (22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR APRIL 2018:                   713.84 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 5184 DESPITE THE $4.50 LOSS  IN PRICE // GOLD TRADING YESTERDAY ($4.50 FALL).  WE ALSO HAD AN HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 14,900 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 14,900 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD AN STRONG SIZED NET GAIN OF 9716 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

14,900 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 5184 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 30.22 TONNES). ..AND BELIEVE IT OR NOT BUT ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED AT THE COMEX WITH A  LOSS OF $4.50 IN TRADING!!!.

we had: 0 notice(s) filed upon for NIL oz of gold at the comex.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD  UP $2.70  TODAY: / A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ A DEPOSIT OF 2.91 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 851.45 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 848.50 tonnes.

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS TODAY A HUGE CHANGE IN THE SILVER INVENTORY AT  THE SLV INVENTORY/ A DEPOSIT OF 2.071 MILLION OZ/

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.039 MILLION OZ/

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 2146 CONTRACTS from  205,464 UP TO 207,610 (AND, CLOSER TO THE  NEW COMEX RECORD SET /APRIL 9/2017 AT 243,411/SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). THE PREVIOUS RECORD OTHER THAN WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER ONE YEAR AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS CONTINUES AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:   (WE DO NOT GET A LOOK AT THESE CONTRACTS AS IT IS PRIVATE BUT THE CFTC DOES AUDIT THEM), 1133 EFP’S FOR JULY AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  1133 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 2146 CONTRACTS TO THE 1133 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A GIGANTIC SIZED GAIN OF 3279 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  16.395 MILLION OZ!!! AND THIS HUGE DEMAND OCCURRED DESPITE A 16 CENT LOSS IN PRICE .  THE BANKERS ORCHESTRATED THEIR RAID THROUGHOUT LAST WEEK  DESPERATELY TRYING TO PARE THEIR GIGANTIC OPEN INTEREST SHORT ON BOTH EXCHANGES BUT TO NO AVAIL. JUDGING BY THE RECORD NUMBER OF EFP ISSUANCE DURING LAST MONTH OF APRIL AT 385.75 MILLION OZ AND THE TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES, THE CONSTANT RAIDS, LIKE YESTERDAY ARE NOW BEING CALLED UPON BY OUR BANKER FRIENDS  IN AN ATTEMPT TO SHAKE AS MANY SILVER LEAVES FROM THE SILVER TREE AS POSSIBLE AND JUDGING BY THE RESULTS TO YESTERDAYS ACTION THEY WERE NOT AT ALL SUCCESSFUL.

RESULT: A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 16 CENT LOSS  IN SILVER PRICING YESTERDAY. BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER STRONG SIZED 1133 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR APRIL, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed DOWN 79.02 points or  2.53%   /Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 427,79 points or 1.40%    / The Nikkei closed DOWN 330.91 POINTS OR 1.52% /Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .46%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.4194/Oil DOWN to 66.77 dollars per barrel for WTI and 75.72 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED/.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AT 6.4194 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.4088/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING  WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE A FULL TRADE WAR IS BEGINNING/

/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA

CIA report shows that there is no way the North will denuclearize.  They might open a burger joint as hamburgers are a favourite of Trump’s

( zerohedge)

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 c CHINA

i)Seems that hawk Navarro is back in the good graces of Trump.  Beijing announces that it would retaliate against the USA.  This is happening one week before the two sides meet

( zerohedge)

ii)The war between Mnuchin and Navarro erupts full tilt.   Will Mnuchin be the latest to get the boot

( zerohedge)

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)On the same theme as Raul Meijer, Italy’s big problem is demographics as working age citizens are falling.  This is the reason why the Brussels allowed mass migration into Europe with Italy having its huge share of them. But these immigrants are not skilled and they are not educated and it will not solve Italy’s problem in the years to come.  The coalition realized this as part of their platform

a must read..

( Gefira)

ii)Raul Meijer highlights the mess in Italy as “Hotel Europa”…a prison where nobody can escape

(courtesy Meijer/Automatic Earth Blog

iii)Pimco sells its Italian bonds and then says that one should go short these bonds.  The ECB says that there is no need to intervene in Italy, not just yet…Reuters reports that the ECB does not have the tools to solve this political mess..( zerohedge)iv)Even Goldman Sachs has no idea what will come next in Italy..they highlight 3 scenarios
(courtesy zerohedge/

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

ISRAEL/GAZA STRIP
Fighting rages on throughout the night.  If it intensifies, we may see another war between Hamas and the Israelis
( Michael Snyder/American Dream blog)

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

7. OIL ISSUES

8. EMERGING MARKET

i)Venezuela

After Turkey, Argentina, Columbia, South Africa and Mexico look vulnerable

( zerohedge)

ii)VENEZUELA

Just take a look at Venezuela’s huge inflation number:  13,779%

( zerohedge/Ramirez)

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Give this guy a medal!! He finally realizes FX abuses persist? EVEN AFTER 10 BILLION DOLLARS IN FINES
( Bloomberg/GATA)

ii)Craig points out what I have been detailing you on a constant basis.  Silver deliveries have surged.  Actually May 2018 is the second largest on record.  Craig is also correct that dealers may be selling to other dealers but that silver is ending up as physical somewhere!

( Craig Hemke_/Sprott)

iii)Finance officials are now discussing the use of the Chinese yuan for reserve currency purposes in Africa

( Xinhua/GATA)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silveri)

i)USA DATA

THIS MORNING, THE BEA REPORTS THAT AS PART OF THE  FIRST QUARTER gdp DATA, THE ECONOMY GREW SLIGHTLY LESS THAN EXPECTED AT 2.2% DOWN FROM 2.3%

(ZEROHEDGE)

ii)I guess this is the logical outcome with a rising interest rate:  mortgage refi activity plunges to 18 yr lows

(courtesy zerohedge)

iii)SWAMP STORIES

a)Glen Simpson lied to the Committee as to whether he did work on the dossier after the election. He stated no but in reality he did.

( zerohedge)

Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 5184  CONTRACTS UP to an OI level 469,382 DESPITE THE FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($4.50 FALL/ YESTERDAY’S TRADING).   FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE.   THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A HUMONGOUS SIZED  COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 14,900 CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: FOR  JUNE, 4026 CONTRACTS ISSUED,  FOR AUGUST 10,874 CONTRACTS AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL  14,900 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 25,339 OI CONTRACTS IN THAT 14,900 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED 10,439 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 9716 contracts OR 971600  OZ OR 30.22 TONNES.

Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST WITH THE LOSS IN PRICE /YESTERDAY  (ENDING UP WITH AN FALL IN PRICE OF $4.50).  THE  TOTAL OPEN INTEREST GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: AT ATMOSPHERIC 9716 OI CONTRACTS..

We have now entered the non  active contract month of MAY where we LOST 2 contracts and that leaves us with 0 contracts. We had notices filed upon yesterday, so we LOST 1 contract STANDING AT THE COMEX or an additional 100 oz will NOT stand in this non active delivery month of May AND THESE GUYS MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

The really big June contract month saw a LOSS of 46,583 contracts DOWN to 36,748 contracts (ONE TRADING DAY LEFT BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE). JULY saw a GAIN of 478 contracts to stand at 1033.   The next big delivery month after June is August and here the OI ROSE BY 39,083 contracts UP to 315,030.

We had notice (s) filed upon today for NIL oz at the comex

ON MAY 30.2017 WE HAD 64,772 CONTRACTS STILL OUTSTANDING WITH ONE TRADING DAY TO GO.

FOR THE JUNE/2017 CONTRACT INITIALLY 19.95 TONNES STOOD FOR DELIVERY.  AT THE END OF JUNE/2017:  9.176 TONNES STOOD AND THE REST MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

THERE IS NO QUESTION THAT THE COMEX DOES NOT HAVE ANY  GOLD TO SATISFY UPON OUR LONGS.

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY: 368,185  contracts

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY: 4

763,221 contracts

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI ROSE BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 2146 CONTRACTS FROM 205,464 UP TO 207,610 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS)  DESPITE THE 16 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING/ YESTERDAY. SINCE WE ARE NOW INTO THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY. WE  WERE  INFORMED THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED 1133 EFP CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR JULY AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS.  THESE EFPS WERE ISSUED TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 1133.  ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 4355 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A 2146 CONTRACT GAIN AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 1133 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  3279 CONTRACTS

AMOUNT STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX

We are now in the  active delivery month of MAY and here the front month FELL BY 84 contracts FALLING TO 100 contracts.  HOWEVER, we had 167 notices filed on Friday so we SURPRISINGLY GAINED ANOTHER STRONG 83 contracts or 415,000 additional ounces will  stand for delivery in this  active delivery month of May AS SOMEBODY AGAIN WAS DESPERATE FOR PHYSICAL SILVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.

June saw a LOSS of 53 contracts to stand at 678.  The next big delivery month for silver is July and here the OI GAINED 703 contracts UP to 140,588. The next active delivery month after July for silver is September and here the OI ROSE by 1583 contracts UP to 33,342

We had 100 notice(s) filed for 500,000 OZ for the MAY 2018 COMEX contract for silver

PLEASE NOTE THE FOLLOWING:

ON MAY 30.2017 WE HAD AT THIS TIME IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE, 651 OI CONTRACTS REMAINED OUTSTANDING WITH ONE DAY TO GO.

ON MAY 31.2017 WE INITIALLY HAD 396 OPEN INTEREST STAND OR A LARGE 1.98 MILLION OZ

AT THE CONCLUSION OF JUNE 2017:  4.92 MILLION OZ AS QUEUE JUMPING STARTED IN EARNEST AND IN THE ENSUING YEAR, IT CONTINUED WITH RECKLESS ABANDON.

FINAL standings for MAY/GOLD

MAY 30/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
2000.94 OZ
Scotia
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz   3603.682

OZ

Delaware

No of oz served (contracts) today
0 notice(s)
 NIL OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contracts
(NIL oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
731 notices
73100 OZ
2.2737 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz
 TODAY, WE HAVE  A TINY PULSE AT THE GOLD COMEX TODAY
with first day notice for the big June gold contract tomorrow???
we had 0 kilobar transaction/
We had 0 inventory movement at the dealer accounts
total inventory deposit into the dealer accounts:  NIL  oz
total inventory withdrawals out of dealer accounts; nil oz
we had 0 withdrawal out of the customer account:
total customer withdrawals:  nil oz
we had 0 customer deposit
total customer deposits: nil oz
we had 1 adjustment(s)
i) Out of Delaware:  599.254 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer account of Delaware

For MAY:

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to  0 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MAY. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (731) x 100 oz or 73100 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY. (0 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (0 x 100 oz per contract) equals 73,100 oz, the number of ounces standing in this active month of APRIL (2.2737 tonnes)

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAY contract month:

No of notices served (731 x 100 oz)  + {(0)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (1 x 100 oz )which equals 73,100 ozstanding in this  active delivery month of MAY . THERE ARE 8.942 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY SO FAR.

WE LOST 100 OZ OF GOLD (1 CONTRACT) STANDING IN THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MAY AS THIS CONTRACT WAS AWARDED AN EFP

total registered or dealer gold:  287,490.691 oz or 8.9421 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   9,017,569.272 oz 280.48 tones
THE COMEX IS AGAIN IN STRESS AS ONLY 8.942 TONNES OF GOLD ARE LEFT TO SERVICE DELIVERIES. THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD AT THE COMEX TO SERVE UPON LONGS AND THUS THE REASON FOR THE EFP TRANSFER OVER TO LONDON.

IN THE LAST 18 MONTHS 74 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE APRIL DELIVERY MONTH

MAY FINAL standings/SILVER

MAY 30/ 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 698,876.769 oz
Brinks
CNT
HSBC
Malca
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil
oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
 1,056,220.410
oz
Scotia
No of oz served today (contracts)
100
CONTRACT(S)
(500,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contracts
(NIL oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 7257 contracts

(36,285,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

total dealer deposits: nil oz

we had 1 deposits into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 140 million oz of  total silver inventory or 52.3% of all official comex silver. (140 million/268 million)

ii) into Scotia: 1,056,220.410 oz

total customer deposits today: 1056,220.410 oz

we had 4 withdrawals from the customer account;

i) Out of Brinks: 2,984.07 oz

ii) Out of CNT: 29,803.669 oz

iii) Out of HSBC: 604,253,880

iv) Out of Malca: 59,835.05

total withdrawals;  698,876.769 oz

we had 2  adjustments

i  Out of CNT: 202,809.825 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account of CNT

ii) OUt of JPM:  2045.948 oz was removed as a counting error.

total dealer silver:  68.948 million

total dealer + customer silver:  271.217 million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the MAY. contract month is represented by 100 contract(s) FOR 500,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAY., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 7257 x 5,000 oz = 36,285,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAY. (100) and the number of notices served upon today (100 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the FINAL standings for silver for the MAY contract month: 7257(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAY(100) -number of notices served upon today (100)x 5000 oz equals 36,285,000 oz of silver standing for the MAY contract month

WE GAINED 83 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 415,000 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS SOMEBODY WAS IN URGENT NEED OF A HUGE QUANTITY OF PHYSICAL SILVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 65,468 CONTRACTS

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY:111,309 CONTRACTS

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF  111,309 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO 556 MILLION OZ  OR 79.8% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -2.14% (MAY30/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.41% to NAV (MAY 30/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -2.16%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ territory at -0.41%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail but being rescued by Sprott.
Sprott WINS hostile 3.1 billion bid to take over Central Fund of Canada

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA): NAV FALLS TO -2.22%: NAV 13.51/TRADING 13.19//DISCOUNT 2.31.

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

MAY 30/WITH GOLD UP $2.70: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.95 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 851.45 TONNES

MAY 29/2018/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.50/ NO CHANGES IN GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 848.50 TONNES

May 25/WITH GOLD UP ON THE WEEK BUT DOWN 80 CENTS TODAY: WE HAD A HUGE 3.54 TONNES OF GOLD WITHDRAWAL FROM THE CROOKED GLD/

MAY 24/WITH GOLD UP $12.40/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.04

MAY 22/WITH GOLD UP $1.05/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.04 TONNES

MAY 21/WITH GOLD DOWN 50 CENTS/A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY/A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.24 TONNES FORM GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.04 TONNES

MAY 18/WITH GOLD UP $1.80/A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ A DEPOSIT OF 9.11 TONNES INTO GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.28 TONNES/

GLD WAS ONE MASSIVE FRAUD

May 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.75/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.17 TONNES

MAY 16./WITH GOLD UP $1.05: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.17 TONNES

MAY 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $27.35, THE CROOKS WITHDREW 10 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD WHICH WAS USED IN THE RAID TODAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.17 TONNES

MAY 14/ WITH GOLD DOWN $2.35: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 4.68 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD and then a withdrawal of 1.48 tonnes /INVENTORY RESTS AT 866.17

A net gain of 3.2 tonnes of gold.

MAY 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.75/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.96 TONNES/

MAY 10/WITH GOLD UP $9.60/A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.96 TONNES/SUCH CROOKS

MAY 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.55/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.13 TONNES

MAY 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.10/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.13 TONNES

MAY 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.55/ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.13 TONNES

MAY 4/WITH GOLD UP $2.05/A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.13 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.60 TONNES

MAY 3/WITH GOLD UP $7.05/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 866.77 TONNES

MAY 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.15/ A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.43 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 866.77 TONNES

MAY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.15/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.20 TONNES

APRIL 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.05/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.20 TONNES.

APRIL 27./WITH GOLD UP $5.90/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.20 TONNES/

APRIL 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.90/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.20 TONNES

APRIL 25/AFTER 9 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF NO MOVEMENT OF GOLD INTO OUT OF THE GLD, WE HAD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.31 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.20 TONNES.

APRIL 24./WITH GOLD UP $9.90, WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES/

APRIL 23.2018/WITH GOLD DOWN $14.00/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES.

APRIL 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.20: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES

APRIL 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.25: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES/

APRIL 18/WITH GOLD UP $3.65: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.89 TONNES

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

MAY 30/2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 851.45 tonnes

*IN LAST 388 TRADING DAYS: 79.56 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 338 TRADING DAYS: A NET 76.74 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO GLD INVENTORY.

end

Now the SLV Inventory/

MAY 30/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A DEPOSIT OF 2.071 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.039 MILLION OZ/

MAY 29.2018/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.968 OZ

May 25/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 319.968 AS WE HAD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.035 MILLION OZ

MAY 24/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.003 MILLION OZ/

MAY 22/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.003 MILLION OZ/

MAY 21/ WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.003 MILLION OZ/

MAY 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS  A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A WITHDRAWAL OF 942,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.003 MILLION OZ/

May 17/WITH GOLD UP 6 CENTS/A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 471,000 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.945 MILLION OZ/

MAY 16./WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS/A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.883 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.474 MILLION OZ

MAY 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS, NO CHANGES AT THE SLV; THE CROOKS COULD NOT BORROW ANY SILVER BECAUSE THERE IS NONE: INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.591 MILLION OZ

MAY 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS/A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A WITHDRAWAL OF 858,000 FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.591 MILLION OZ/

MAY 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS/THE CROOKS WITHDREW A MONSTROUS 2.824 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.439 MILLION OZ/

MAY 10/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 323.263 MILLION OZ/

MAY 9/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 323.263 MILLION OZ/

MAY 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 323.263 MILLION OZ.

MAY 7/WITH SILVER FLAT: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 942,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 323.263 MILLION OZ/

MAY4/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS/A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A DEPOSIT OF 1.224 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.205 MILLION OZ/

MAY 2/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS/A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 6.082 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.981 MILLION OZ/

MAY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.899 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.899 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.899 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENT/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316,899 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 25./WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.899 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 24./WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS/SOMETHING SPOOKED OUR CROOKS TO ADD SOME PAPER SILVER: A DEPOSIT OF 1.601 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.899 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 23.2018/WITH SILVER DOWN 50 CENTS, ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL FROM THE SLV INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.413 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 315.298 MILLION OZ.

APRIL 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS: ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.13 MILLION OZ//SLV RESTS TONIGHT AT 316.711 MILLION OZ/

APRIL 19/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: WE HAD A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.355 MILLION OZ/ MAKES ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE!!/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.841 MILLION OZ

APRIL 18/WITH SILVER UP 44 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.196 MILLION OZ

MAY 30/2018:

Inventory 322.039 million oz

end

6 Month MM GOFO 2.15/ and libor 6 month duration 2.47

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0FO+ 2.15%

libor 2.47 FOR 6 MONTHS/

GOLD LENDING RATE: .32%

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.71%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.60

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.11

end

Major gold/silver trading /commentaries for WEDNESDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.

GOLD/SILVER

Gold And Silver Bullion Obsolete In The Crypto Age?

Are Gold And Silver Obsolete In The Crypto Age?

What is the outlook for the global economy, financial markets, crypto currencies such as bitcoin and gold and silver bullion in the digital age?

Fresh insights as CrushtheStreet.com interview Mark O’Byrne who gives his diagnosis on the outlook for gold in 2018, and looks at the long-term relevance of precious metals in the digital age of crypto and the blockchain alongside Bitcoin’s emergence as a potential digital store of value.


TOPICS IN THIS INTERVIEW

01:00 Diagnosis of the economy and rising inflation
06:00 Possible stock market correction?
09:30 What is triggering higher oil prices?
13:05 Impacts of rising oil prices on the mining sector
14:40 Gold in 2018, what to expect next
20:00 Has Bitcoin taken over the role of Gold itself?
23:50 Silver’s purpose and upside in the digital age
28:30 GoldCore providing ways to purchase and store Gold

Watch the full interview here – ‘Are Gold And Silver Obsolete In The Digital Age? – Mark O’Byrne Interview’ 

News and Commentary

Gold steadies as political turmoil in Italy rocks financial markets (Reuters.com)

Euro dives to 6-month low versus dollar as Italian and Spanish political worries fester (MarketWatch.com)

Italy banker warns on political crisis as investors fear for euro (Reuters.com)

Euro zone money markets slash 2019 ECB rate-hike bets (Reuters.com)

Former IMF official becomes Italy’s interim prime minister (Gata.org)


Gold in euros (1 month)

Soros Sees New Global Financial Crisis Brewing, EU Under Threat (Bloomberg.com)

Saxo Bank: Precious metals gradually recovering (Trend.az)

Finance officials discuss use of Chinese yuan as reserve currency for Africa (Xinhuanet.com)

Turkey Repatriates All Gold From The US In Attempt To Ditch The Dollar (ZeroHedge.com)

Gold Production On The Cusp Of Peaking (GoldTelegraph.com)

Listen on SoundCloud , Blubrry & iTunesWatch on YouTube below

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

29 May: USD 1,302.05, GBP 983.83 & EUR 1,130.57 per ounce
25 May: USD 1,303.95, GBP 976.53 & EUR 1,113.70 per ounce
24 May: USD 1,296.35, GBP 967.73 & EUR 1,104.88 per ounce
23 May: USD 1,294.00, GBP 967.91 & EUR 1,102.88 per ounce
22 May: USD 1,293.90, GBP 961.24 & EUR 1,095.29 per ounce
21 May: USD 1,285.85, GBP 959.24 & EUR 1,095.67 per ounce
18 May: USD 1,287.20, GBP 954.20 & EUR 1,091.16 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

29 May: USD 16.48, GBP 12.43 & EUR 14.26 per ounce
25 May: USD 16.67, GBP 12.49 & EUR 14.24 per ounce
24 May: USD 16.51, GBP 12.32 & EUR 14.09 per ounce
23 May: USD 16.53, GBP 12.38 & EUR 14.11 per ounce
22 May: USD 16.58, GBP 12.32 & EUR 14.04 per ounce
21 May: USD 16.34, GBP 12.19 & EUR 13.91 per ounce
18 May: USD 16.39, GBP 12.16 & EUR 13.92 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– In Gold we Trust: 3 Important Factors Leading to the “Turning of the Monetary Tides”
– Silver Trading in Tight $1 Range As Pressure Builds For A Breakout
– Gold Back Above $1300 – Trump Cancels Historic Summit – Silver “Ready To Breakout”
– Gold Price Surges To Record In Turkey and Other Emerging Markets as Currencies Collapse
– Gold Rarity and Value Shown In Stunning Gold Visualisations
– Gold Looks A Better Investment Than UK Property
– Gold 2048: The Next 30 Years For Gold
– Beware “Snollygosters” and the Empty Promises of Pathological Politicians
– US 10-Year Surges, Emerging Markets Implode…Where Next for Gold?
– Welsh Gold Being Hyped Due To The Royal Wedding?
– Oil Price Is Going To Keep Rising And Inflation Is Coming
– Gold Price Manipulation – A Comprehensive Guide By James Rickards
– EU ‘Nightmare Scenario’ As Popular Anti-Euro and Anti-EU Government Takes Power In Italy

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director
END

Andrew Maguire’s Kinesis money which is a “bitcoin” but backed 100% by allocated gold and silver is set to go.

it think it would be a great idea to look at this!

please read at:  https://kinesis.money/#/

(Andrew Maguire)

Andrew Maguire

2:57 PM (1 hour ago)
to me

Harvey

Here It is my friend!  https://kinesis.money/#/ Please let everyone know.

Let catch up on Monday if you have time. We have billions in the hopper ready to be allocated on the 1st day of trading. The paper market days are over.

Warm regards

Andy

 END
Give this guy a medal!! He finally realizes FX abuses persist? EVEN AFTER 10 BILLION DOLLARS IN FINES
(courtesy Bloomberg/GATA)

FX abuses persist even after $10 billion in fines, traders say

 Section: 

By Lananh Nguyen
Bloomberg News
Tuesday, May 29, 2018

Add Andy Maack of Vanguard Group Inc. to the list of a dozen or so executives who say that routine misbehavior in the $5.1 trillion-a-day foreign exchange market persists even after banks paid $10 billion in penalties and a trader was sent to prison.

It’s been a year since regulators and industry participants published the FX Global Code, a set of voluntary guidelines aimed at improving standards in the unregulated, over-the-counter market that was rife with misdeeds. While the cleanup effort has helped make the business more transparent, it hasn’t done enough to curb the most dubious practices, said Maack, Vanguard’s global head of foreign-exchange trading.

“I would have a tough time signing that document,” Maack said in an interview. “It needs to go further.”

Maack pointed to the controversial and widely used practices of last look and front-running as the most objectionable. A dozen industry participants agreed with him. Last look allows dealers to back out of losing trades. Front-running, sometimes called pre-hedging, is a practice in which traders make deals using advance knowledge of clients’ private order information. The code allows both under certain circumstances.

“I’m uncomfortable with a code that makes last look an acceptable practice,” Maack said. “I’m uncomfortable with a code that makes pre-hedging an acceptable practice.” …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-29/fx-abuses-persist-eve…

END

Craig points out what I have been detailing you on a constant basis.  Silver deliveries have surged.  Actually May 2018 is the second largest on record.  Craig is also correct that dealers may be selling to other dealers but that silver is ending up as physical somewhere!

(courtesy Craig Hemke_/Sprott)

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: Surging Comex silver deliveries

 Section: 

4:16p ET Tuesday, May 29, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report, writing for Sprott Money, notes today that deliveries for the May silver futures contract on the New York Commodities Exchange are running higher than they have done in 11 years, possibly signifying strong demand for the monetary metal. But Hemke cautions that Comex data often signifies little more than bullion banks buying and selling contracts to each other. Hemke’s analysis is headlined “Surging Comex Silver Deliveries” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/surging-comex-silver-deliveries-craig-h…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Finance officials are now discussing the use of the Chinese yuan for reserve currency purposes in Africa

(courtesy Xinhua/GATA)

Finance officials discuss use of Chinese yuan as reserve currency for Africa

 Section: 

From Xinhua News Agency, Beijing
Tuesday, May 29, 2018

HARARE, Zimbabwe — The Chinese yuan comes under the spotlight today and Wednesday when 17 top central bank and government officials from 14 countries in eastern and southern Africa meet here to discuss its possible use as a reserve currency for the region.

In a statement to Xinhua on Monday, a spokesperson for the Macroeconomic and Financial Management Institute of Eastern and Southern Africa, Gladys Siwela-Jadagu, said the event would be attended by deputy permanent secretaries and deputy central bank governors.

… 

Officials from the African Development Bank and an investments management organization will also attend the forum, bringing together the policy makers and experts in reserves management to strategize on the weakening external positions of most member countries, following the global economy slowdown, she said.

The theme for the forum is “Trends in Sovereign Reserve Management.” …

“Most countries in the region have loans or grants from China and it would make economic sense to repay in renminbi. This is the reason why it is critical for policy makers to strategize on progress that the continent has made to embrace the Chinese yuan, which has become what may be termed ‘common currency’ in trade with Africa.” …

… For the remainder of the report:

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-05/29/c_137213337.htm

end



___________________________________________________________________

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED DOWN TO 6.4194  /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 79.02 POINTS OR 2.53%     HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 427.79  POINTS OR 1.40%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 330.91 POINTS OR 1.52% /  /USA: YEN RISES TO 108.89/

3. Europe stocks OPENED GREEN//     /USA dollar index FALLS TO 94.31/Euro RISES TO 1.1633

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO . +.04/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 109.65/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD FINALLY IN THE POSITIVE/BANK OF JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR YIELD CURVE AS THEY PURCHASE ALL BONDS TO GET TO ZERO RATE!!

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 66.77  and Brent: 75.72

3f Gold DOWN/Yen DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.36%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 2.85% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 1.55%

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 4.61

3k Gold at $1298.00 silver at:16.39   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 61/100 in roubles/dollar) 62.27

3m oil into the 66 dollar handle for WTI and 75 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 108.89 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9902 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1523 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to +0.260%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.88% early this morning (THIS IS DEADLY TO ALL MARKETS). Thirty year rate at 3.06%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)

Global Stocks, US Futures Rebound As Italian

Bond Panic Eases; Euro Jumps

One day after an unprecedented, record crash in Italian 2Y bonds and a rout across the entire bond curve as well as Italian stocks, which proceeded to spill out and impact other European banks and “contage” the Euro amid a growing political crisis in Rome, Italian bonds rebounded in early European trading as the panic liquidation was put on hold for now, sending 2Y Italian yields as low as 1.925% after hitting a 5 year high of 2.84% on Tuesday.

The 10Y yield also faded as buyers emerged for the benchmark Italian BTP, which was last trading just above 3.00%…

… after Italy successfully sold five- and 10-year debt in a closely watched auction, helping reassure jittery markets after this week’s hair-raising meltdown in Italian bonds amid the ongoing political crisis.

The debt office sold €5.6BN in bonds this morning including €1.82BN worth of 10-year bonds. And with a bid-to-cover ratio of 1.48 times, the highest since December, SocGen said that while demand for the bond auction held up, pricing was mixed noting that in terms of pricing, “you have an underbidding of 25c on the 2028 and an overbidding of 24c on the 2023 issue so a mixed message.” He added that “they have issued much less than the 4 billion euro target it seems but it is not necessarily a big deal” and as a result there was “very little displacement in intraday yields because of the supply.”

“The overnight news flow is less bad and the chances are good that today’s auctions will pass smoothly, so yesterday’s volatility spike is easing,” Commerzbank AG strategist Christoph Rieger told clients, adding that a 10-year yield spread of 300 basis points over Germany is likely to add key support. “The intraday panic spike yesterday above this level was bought, which is encouraging.

Helped by the solid auction uptake, the spread between Italian and German 10Y yields, which hit a whopping 320bps yesterday, has dipped around 20bps from Tuesday’s close and was last seen at 271bps.

The bid in Italian bonds also helped stabilized Italian stocks, with the FTSE MIB up nearly 1% in generally illiquid trading.

On Wednesday morning, Italy PM designate Cottarelli met again with Mattarella at the Qurinale today, with no press release post the meeting. This is after ANSA reported that Cottarelli was considering giving up the mandate, allowing for a possible election on July 29th, but a source close to Mattarella later stated there was no mention of this and that he asked for more time to name a cabinet. Comments from the populists also transpired, with calls for early elections and the backing of Giorgetti for PM by the League and Conte by 5SM. Both parties also reiterated the intention to form a government but have emphasized the likelihood of a snap election.

Meanwhile, the lack of new news and the solid Italian auction led to a rebound in risk assets in both Europe and the US, where S&P futures were last trading 12 points higher after yesterday’s sharp drop.

In the clearest sign that the Italian “panic liquidation” contagion which led some dealers to pull quotes resulting in an inefficient market and bid/ask spreads that exploded over the past 3 days…

… has been put on hold, the euro looked to erase Tuesday’s drop against the dollar as Italy’s bonds stabilized even amid signs that last-ditch efforts by populist leaders to form a government may prove unsuccessful. As shown below, the Euro rose above 1.1600, erasing almost all of Tuesday’s plunge, even as League leader Matteo Salvini called for early elections without revealing who he might form an alliance with.

The Euro was also boosted by German jobs data which topped estimates coupled with several CPI beats in several German states as well as in Spain, all of which added momentum to a bounce in the euro.

Ironically, the euro strength weighed on equities, especially Germany’s export-heavy names, and the Stoxx Europe 600 Index slipped even as S&P 500 futures pointed to a higher open in New York. Earlier, financial shares led the MSCI Asia Pacific Index down as the region played catch up to the previous day’s selloff.

Meanwhile, as Europe’s panic eased, U.S. 10-year bonds gave up some of their gains from Tuesday to send yields back above 2.8 percent, rising as high as 2.86%

Helping the emerging markets, the dollar slipped against all Group-of-10 peers and the euro entered a recovery phase in the London session, rising as much as 0.6% against the dollar.

In other FX news, Sweden’s krona was the top G-10 performer, after suffering the most during yesterday’s risk-off move, supported by stabilizing risk sentiment and solid growth data. The yen and the Swiss franc consolidated against the dollar following yesterday’s haven- inspired demand from Italy’s political crisis. Italian bonds held gains after Rome-based debt office sold EU5.6b total of securities, including 5- and 10-year bonds, with demand for 10- year debt rising to the highest since December

In geopolitical news, White House Press Secretary Sanders said US President Trump thinks discussions with North Korea are proceeding well and added the White House prepared for summit to take place June 12th.  North Korea renewed its demand for US and South Korea to cancel military exercises in August, while there were also unconfirmed reports that North Korea was said to have conducted a torpedo test during talks with South Korea and US, although timing is uncertain. Furthermore, Axios noted a CIA assessment report which stated that North Korea will not denuclearize. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov will visit North Korea tomorrow.

Commodities were steady during early European trade with WTI crude futures marginally higher after somewhat choppy Asia trade and with resistance at the USD 67/bbl level, while focus for oil now shifts to the API inventory report after-market in US which was delayed due to the extended weekend.

Gold was s trading flat, now back below the 1300 level as the risk premium starts to unwind following yesterday’s safe-haven bid. Meanwhile, London copper (-0.8%) flirts around three-week lows on the broad-risk averse tone seen during Asia-Pac trade amid underperformance in its largest consumer China.

Expected events include first-quarter GDP and the Fed’s Beige Book. Michael Kors, Analog Devices and Guess are among companies reporting earnings.

Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk

  • Italian politics still dominate European markets as political turmoil continues
  • EUR/USD back above 1.16 after upticks in regional German CPIs
  • Looking ahead, highlights include, US ADP, GDP, Advance Good Trade Balance, BoC Rate Decision, APIs

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 2,700.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.06% to 384.24
  • MXAP down 1.3% to 170.69
  • MXAPJ down 1.3% to 556.88
  • Nikkei down 1.5% to 22,018.52
  • Topix down 1.5% to 1,736.13
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.4% to 30,056.79
  • Shanghai Composite down 2.5% to 3,041.44
  • Sensex down 0.3% to 34,847.50
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.5% to 5,984.73
  • Kospi down 2% to 2,409.03
  • German 10Y yield rose 6.7 bps to 0.327%
  • Euro up 0.5% to $1.1597
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 47.4 bps to 2.891%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.4 bps to 1.617%
  • Brent Futures down 0.5% to $75.76/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.06% to $1,299.60
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.4% to 94.43

Top Overnight News

  • The Socialists, Spain’s biggest opposition party, are negotiating on two fronts for the support they need to oust Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy in a no-confidence vote Friday, according to people briefed on the talks
  • Italy may be headed toward snap elections as early as July after the latest attempt to form a government saw premier-designate Carlo Cottarelli leave a meeting with the president without an agreement on a cabinet team. It feels like 2012 again as European markets shudder over Italy
  • President Donald Trump said he’s moving ahead with plans to impose tariffs on $50 billion of Chinese imports and curb investment in sensitive technology, ratcheting up pressure on Beijing days before the next round of trade negotiations. China’s commerce ministry said U.S. announcement is both surprising and within expectations
  • The White House announced a flurry of final preparations for Trump’s planned summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un including a meeting with Japan’s prime minister as it signaled confidence the meeting will proceed
  • The latest bout of market turmoil is denting investor confidence in how aggressively the Federal Reserve will tighten policy this year
  • Turkey is prepared to raise interest rates again if inflation accelerates, according to two money managers who met with Turkey’s central bank Governor Murat Cetinkaya and Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Simsek in London Tuesday
  • After being the market darlings for two years, high- yield bonds from developing nations are becoming unpopular
  • German unemployment fell to a fresh record low as companies in Europe’s largest economy stepped up hiring to work through backlogs even amid signs of slowing growth
  • U.S. sees no systemic impact from Italy yet, Treasury official says
  • China will continue trade talks with U.S., urges sincerity: Xinhua
  • Kuroda says low bank profitability poses a challenge globally
  • Japan April retail sales 1.4% vs 0.5% est, y/y 1.6% vs 1.0% est
  • Australia building approvals -5.0% vs -3.0% est, y/y 1.9% vs 4.1% est
  • RBNZ keeps mortgage curbs, says house-price growth likely to slow

Asian stocks traded lower across the board on spill-over selling from Wall St, with global market sentiment daunted by political uncertainty in Europe and trade concerns after reports the US plans to proceed with tech tariffs and investment restrictions on China. ASX 200 (-0.6%) and Nikkei 225 (-1.6%) were both negative with declines led by financials following hefty losses in the sector stateside which dropped over 3% amid a slump in yields, although losses in Australia were stemmed by gains in defensive stocks. Elsewhere, Shanghai Comp. (-1.8%) and Hang Seng (-1.5%) underperformed on prospects of trade tariffs which outweighed another consecutive firm liquidity effort by the PBoC. Finally, 10yr JGBs traded higher and above the 151.00 level as yields tracked the downside in their US and most European counterparts, aside from Italian government bonds which tumbled on the political disarray and dampened rate hike probabilities for both the ECB and Fed. China stated the US announcement of plans to proceed with tariffs is contrary to previous consensus and stated it is capable of protecting its own interests no matter what the US does. In related news, there were also reports that the US is said to plan imposing restrictions on some China visas.

Top Asian News

  • Hedge Fund Giant Sees More Pain to Come for Indonesian Debt
  • Bank Indonesia to Soon Ease Macroprudential Norms, Warjiyo Says
  • Oasis’s Fisher Urges Japan Asset to Pay Dividend, Change Board
  • Bank Indonesia’s New Governor Stamps His Mark With Rate Hike
  • China Says Trade ‘Flip-flop’ Risks Depleting U.S. Credibility

European equities have traded in a particularly choppy fashion with the FTSE MIB fluctuating between gains and losses (+1.0%) as markets remain sensitive to the latest developments in Italian politics. Broadly, investors are reassessing the likelihood of an Italian departure from the EUR after yesterday’s market frenzy, but the outcome of negotiations remains far from clear. Some Italian bank stocks continues to suffer with Bper Banca (-0.7%). Elsewhere, Vivendi (-4%) shares are lower on the loss of broadcasting rights  for the French football league, while Bayer (+3.8%) received US approval for the Monsanto takeover, lending support to their shares.

Top European News

  • Four Italian Banks Cut at BofAML on ‘Messy’ Political Situation
  • Orix Ready to Spend Almost $1 Billion on European Clean Energy
  • Europe Must Counter ‘Rampant’ Populism, EU’s Juncker Says
  • German Joblessness Falls to Record Low Despite Signs of Slowdown
  • Oil Can Still Win Its Tug-of War With Ruble Over Tenge’s Future

In FX, a marked change in fortunes for the EUR on a combination of firmer than expected macro releases (German retail sales, state CPIs, jobs and Spanish inflation) and further respite in Italian markets, with the single currency eclipsing Tuesday’s recovery high vs the USD and reclaiming the 1.1600 handle at one stage. However, Italy’s political situation remains up in the air after no progress on an interim Government and heightened prospects of another election within the next few months. Hence, safe-havens like the JPY and CHF retain a firm underlying bid (circa 0.9900 and sub-109.00 vs the Greenback and sub-1.1500/126.00 vs the Eur respectively) despite more verbal intervention from the SNB (Jordan reiterating the need for NIRP and direct intervention given fragile currency markets). NZD/AUD the next best G10 performers, or rebounders from recent lows to be more precise, as the antipodeans revisit 0.6900+ and 0.7500+ levels vs the Usd respectively amidst a general improvement in risk sentiment, which has offset data misses overnight (in the form of NZ and Aussie building permits). GBP/CAD both largely side-lined, but also unwinding some losses with Cable back over 1.3250 and the Loonie firming towards 1.3000 ahead of the BoC policy meeting and a raft of Canadian data in the run up.

In commodities, WTI crude futures are marginally higher after somewhat choppy Asia trade and with resistance at the USD 67/bbl level, while focus for oil now shifts to the API inventory report after-market in US which was delayed due to the extended weekend. Gold is trading flat, now back below the 1300 level as the risk premium starts to unwind following yesterday’s safe-haven bid. Meanwhile, London copper (-0.8%) flirts around three-week lows on the broad-risk averse tone seen during Asia-Pac trade amid underperformance in its largest consumer China.

Looking at the day ahead, the flash May CPI report for Germany and Spain (2.1% vs 1.7% yoy expected), along with the preliminary Q1 GDP release in France and May confidence indicators for the Euro area are due. In the US we’ll get the second revision to Q1 GDP along with May ADP employment change, April advance goods trade balance and April wholesale inventories data. The Fed’s Beige Book will also be out in the evening while the Fed is also scheduled to discuss changes to the Volcker Rule.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -2.6%
  • 8:15am: ADP Employment Change, est. 190,000, prior 204,000
  • 8:30am: GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 2.3%, prior 2.3%; Personal Consumption, est. 1.2%, prior 1.1%
    • GDP Price Index, est. 2.0%, prior 2.0%; Core PCE QoQ, est. 2.5%, prior 2.5%
  • 8:30am: Advance Goods Trade Balance, est. $71.0b deficit, prior $68.0b deficit, revised $68.3b deficit
  • 8:30am: Retail Inventories MoM, prior -0.4%, revised -0.5%; Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.3%
  • 2pm: U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
  • 3pm: Fed to Hold Board Meeting to Discuss Volcker Rule Changes

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Another incredible day for Italy, especially 2 year yields which closed +184bps higher to 2.70% and back to H2 2012 levels. All things considered though, global risk assets were ‘relatively’ resilient given this extraordinary move. Nevertheless 2 year government yields really aren’t meant to behave like this. In the G7 plus Spain (thrown in for good measure), we can only find one day over the last few decades (where we have daily data) with a +100bps plus closing move in a 2 year government bond. That was the +146bps move in the US inspired by the Volcker Fed on 4th October 1982. So we have eclipsed this and that was only interest rate related and not a credit move. Also worth highlighting that 2yr BTPs were in negative yield territory (where they had been for all of the last year) until May 8th and were as low as -0.21% in early May. 10yr BTPs were +75bps at the highs (3.41%) for the day yesterday but eventually closed +47.6bps higher at 3.148%. 10yr Bunds traded as low at 0.185% and 2yr at -0.83% before closing at 0.257% (-8.4bps) and -0.779% (-9.8bps) respectively. These are yield levels for an economy that has consistently been averaging just over 3.5% nominal GDP growth in recent years.

On a relative basis, the 2y Italian bond spread to Bunds surged 194bp to the highest level since August 2012 (349bp), while the 10y spread widened 56bp to 289bp – highest since July 2013. Meanwhile, Italy’s 5y sovereign CDS jumped 104bp to the highest in c5 years (269.5bp). Italian auctions will be a key event this morning with the debt office planning to issue up to €1.75bn 5-year bonds, €2.25bn 10-year debt and €2bn of 2025 FRNs.

The preference for safe haven assets and a potentially less hawkish Fed boosted US Treasuries, with yields on UST 10y down the most since the 2016 Brexit vote to 2.781% (-15bp). Yields are now back to mid-April levels and represent a 33bp decline from c2 weeks ago. Elsewhere, core European bonds were also in vogue with 10y yields for Gilts (-12.8bp) and OATs (-4.5%) both down while peripherals underperformed in sympathy (Spain +8.6bp). Portugal was relatively resilient as 10y yields jumped +46.1bp intraday but closed +11.8bp later on.

Global equities weakened and credit spreads widened given the risk off tone, but overall contagion seemed to be relatively limited yesterday. Key European bourses traded c1.5% lower (Stoxx 600 -1.37%; DAX -1.53%; FTSE -1.26%) while the Italian (-2.65%) and Spanish (-2.49%) markets led the losses. Within the Stoxx, the bank index was hit the hardest (-3.19%) with Italian banks leading the decline with Unicredit and Intesa down -5.6% and -4.1% respectively. The weakness in banks did spread to the US too with the sector down -4.0%, although they were also weighed down by lower US yields and softer guidance statements. For example, Morgan Stanley dropped -5.8% as it noted its wealth management division’s revenue growth slowed in the last three months while JP Morgan guided to flat yoy markets revenue for 2Q (-4.3%). Meanwhile, the iTraxx Main widened +7.5bp while the Crossover and Sub-Financials index widened 20.6bp and 42.4bp respectively.

In the US, the S&P 500 closed -1.16% which again saw losses relatively well contained given the unique magnitude of the Italian 2yr move. However this now makes it 33 days in 2018 when the S&P 500 has moved by at least 1% up or down (just under a third of all sessions). In 2017 there were only 8 such occasions when this happened (3% of all trading days). Elsewhere, the VIX jumped 28.7% back to mid-April levels (17.02). So yet another reminder that 2018 isn’t 2017!!

Anyway the latest news on Italy is that Cottarelli’s technocratic Government looks increasingly unlikely to get formed as pressure from all parties mounted for fresh elections as soon as possible, with the fear being the election could become a referendum on the Euro. Elsewhere, Mr Cottarelli left a meeting with the President without an agreement on a cabinet team yesterday, in part reflecting the difficulties in forming a new government. To paraphrase a famous saying, to lose one potential Prime Minister is careless but to lose two in 3 days is quite extraordinary.

If we do go to elections on July 29 or early August as per Ansa, much will depend on how the populists campaign on the topic of the Euro. In last month’s election, leaving the Euro didn’t come up as an issue. This fear has only really emerged by concerns of a secret plan B to leave which underpinned the rejection of populist proposed finance minister Paolo Savona over the weekend. If the populist continue to stress their desire to stay within the Euro then this goes back to being more about their spending plans and the slow burning clashes with the EU. Interestingly Salvini yesterday denied any “immediate” plans to leave the EU bloc, and added “our proposals don’t include leaving the EU or Euro, but a renegotiation of the rules….we wouldn’t have gone to Europe to make a mess but to say: we are Italy”.

Staying with the Italian election, DB’s Clemente De Lucia believes the evolution of opinion polls over the next few months would be key to understand if such a confrontation is bearing fruits to the populist parities or if is backfiring. His timely note provides a summary of questions he has received concerning the recent Italian developments.

This morning in Asia, markets are following the US leads and trading lower with the Nikkei (-1.53%), Kospi (-1.74%), Hang Seng (-1.41%) and Shanghai Comp. (-1.77%) all down. Elsewhere, the yield on UST 10y are back up c3bp while futures on the S&P are down marginally. Datawise, Japan’s April retail trade was above market at 1.6% yoy (vs. 1% expected).

Now recapping other markets performance from yesterday. The US dollar index firmed for the third straight day (+0.43%) while the Euro fell -0.73% to the lowest since July 17. In commodities, WTI extended losses (-1.69%) while precious metals softened modestly (Gold -0.02%; Silver -0.66%).

Turning to the Fed, DB’s Peter Hooper does not expect recent events in Europe, even with some further intensification, to cause the Fed to put off its widely expected rate hike on June 2. However, it could result in a softening of the message that accompanies that hike. Such softening could include staying put with a median expectation of three hikes this year instead of moving to four, with prospects for individual dots to move lower. The bigger uncertainty for Fed policy will come around the September FOMC meeting, if Italy’s next election occurs ahead of that meeting. See Peter’s note for more.

Staying with the US, trade tensions with China are resurfacing ahead of next weeks’ trade talks (the 3rd round). Overnight, the White House said a final list of tariffs on $50bn of Chinese imports will be released by 15 June and the tariffs will be imposed “shortly thereafter”. Further, new restrictions on Chinese investments will be announced by June 30 and also implemented shortly after. On the other side, China’s Commerce Ministry said the US announcement was both surprising and within expectations, but China is “confident….and has the experience to protect its interests”.

Turning back to Spain, DB’s Marc de-Muizon noted that while political uncertainty has dialled-up back up again, he noted that the country does differ from Italy – i) Spain has weathered electoral and political uncertainty in recent years relatively well, ii) a clear majority of the electorate supports mainstream pro-EU parties and iii) the current economic momentum remains strong. In his latest note, he summarises the current Spanish political context, the latest developments and highlights potential scenarios going forward.

Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the US, the May CB consumer confidence index rose 2.4pt mom to an in line print of 128. The mom improvement was mainly driven by the present situation index which rose 4.2pts mom to a fresh 17-year high of 161.7. The May Dallas Fed manufacturing index was above market at 26.8 (vs. 23 expected) with solid improvements in the production and employment indices. Elsewhere, the March S&P Corelogic house price index also beat with annual growth 6.8% yoy (vs. 6.45% expected).

The Euro area’s April money supply was in line at 3.9% yoy and after adjusting for sales and securitization, growth in household and non-financial corporate loans was steady at 2.9% yoy and 3.3% yoy respectively. Elsewhere, France’s May consumer confidence index was softer than expected at 100 (vs. 101) while Italy’s May reading edged down 3.2pts mom to 113.7 (vs. 116.5 expected).

Looking at the day ahead, the flash May CPI report for Germany (0.3% mom; 1.8% yoy expected) and Spain (1.7% yoy expected), along with the preliminary Q1 GDP release in France and May confidence indicators for the Euro area are due. In the US we’ll get the second revision to Q1 GDP along with May ADP employment change, April advance goods trade balance and April wholesale inventories data. The Fed’s Beige Book will also be out in the evening while the Fed is also scheduled to discuss changes to the Volcker Rule.

END

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed DOWN 79.02 points or  2.53%   /Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 427,79 points or 1.40%    / The Nikkei closed DOWN 330.91 POINTS OR 1.52% /Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .46%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN at 6.4194/Oil DOWN to 66.77 dollars per barrel for WTI and 75.72 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED/.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AT 6.4194 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.4088/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING  WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE A FULL TRADE WAR IS BEGINNING/

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

North Korea/South Korea/usa

CIA report shows that there is no way the North will denuclearize.  They might open a burger joint as hamburgers are a favourite of Trump’s

(courtesy zerohedge)

CIA: No Way North Korea Denuclearizes, But They Might Open A Burger Joint

According to a report by NBC News, a CIA analysis from last week concludes that North Korea won’t be giving up their nuclear weapons anytime soon, but they might be willing to put a Western hamburger franchise in Pyongyang as a show of goodwill, according to three national security officials who illegally leaked details of the alleged internal report.

The CIA assessment casts doubt on whether Trump can achieve his stated goal for the negotiations – that being the complete elimination of North Korea’s nuclear weapons stockpile and a halt to their nuclear weapons program.

Everybody knows they are not going to denuclearize,” said one intelligence official who read the report, which was circulated earlier this month, days before Trump canceled the originally scheduled summit. –NBC News

The analysis also concludes that a more realistic objective in the near term would be convincing Kim to walk back recent developments made by North Korean nuclear scientists, rather than a full denuclearization.

If the North Koreans don’t agree in a joint statement that lays out denuclearization — that is, getting rid of their nuclear weapons, having them put under control by international elements — then I don’t think we are going to go very far,” said former ambassador to South Korea, Chris Hill in a Tuesday appearance on MSNBC.

And while there’s no way Kim will actually denuclearize, say the leakers, he might be willing to introduce a Western hamburger franchise in Pyongyang as a peaceful gesture to President Trump – who loves hamburgers and said he wanted to talk nukes over a burger with Kim Jong Un.

The alleged CIA report coincides with a new paper written by Sigfried Hecker, a Stanford professor and former director of Los Alamos laboratory in New Mexico, who says that full denuclearization in North Korea could take as long as 15 years.

Hecker, who has toured North Korean nuclear facilities four times, argues that the sprawling nature of the North Korean program will require a long time to dismantle. “Although US should be prepared to accept all concessions Kim is willing to make early on, such as closing the nuclear test site, it must be prepared for a phased approach,” reads the report, which also lays out the steps required for disarmament.

We’re talking about dozens of sites, hundreds of buildings, and thousands of people,” Dr. Hecker said Friday. The key to dismantling the sprawling atomic complex, begun six decades ago, Dr. Hecker added, “is to establish a different relationship with North Korea where its security rests on something other than nuclear weapons.” –NYT

“They’re not going to eliminate everything, and there are some things that aren’t a problem,” Dr. Hecker said, adding “Some of the risks are manageable.”

President Trump said during the 2016 campaign that he would like to meet with Kim Jong Un in a low-key setting that entailed “eating a hamburger on a conference table.”

The CIA report does not specify which fast-food brand could be invited to North Korea, but said Kim envisioned that the establishment could be used to provide food during the talks and would show that he was open to Western investment. –NBC News

The report also notes that during preliminary talks North Korean officials have not made any demands that the U.S. remove all troops from South Korea, nor are they expected to make the request at any initial summit. The CIA analysis also says that South Korean president Moon Jae-in thinks he has a strong rapport with Kim, and that South Korea has been considering ending the decades-long war between the two nations.

The United States, meanwhile, has dropped any human rights demands as part of the talks, according to a current and a former official. North Korea reportedly holds between 80,000 and 120,000 prisoners in prison camps.

The former official said the U.S. approach to North Korea was broken down into phases, each of which would bring corresponding gestures of aid and sanctions relief. First, the Trump administration wants North Korea to declare all details of its nuclear program, dispose of fissile material and close some sites.

The U.S. would then press for international inspections and a gradual elimination of nuclear weapons. The American side would like to all but eliminate fissile material in North Korea. -NBC News

The burning question, of course, is whether Kim will agree to any of that at the end of the day.

end

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

end

c) REPORT ON CHINA/HONG KONG

Seems that hawk Navarro is back in the good graces of Trump.  Beijing announces that it would retaliate against the USA.  This is happening one week before the two sides meet

(courtesy zerohedge)

China Trade Deal On The Verge After Beijing Slams Trump’s

Latest Surprise “Flip-Flop”

One day after Trump surprised trade watchers by announcing he would impose 25% tariffs on up to $50 billion in Chinese tech imports as well as other sanctions, a confused Beijing hit back at the US president, saying that if the U.S. insists on unilateral measures, China will respond accordingly, according to foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying told reporters in Beijing on Wednesday.

“Every flip-flop in international relations simply depletes a country’s credibility, Hua added following the White House’s statement on Tuesday that a final list of imported goods to be targeted will be released by June 15, and levies imposed “shortly thereafter.”

Trump’s latest u-turn was greeted with dismay in the Chinese state media, though pledges to retaliate were muted: “The world faces an extremely mercurial White House administration,” an editorial in China’s Global Times tabloid read. “The Chinese government has the ability and wisdom to handle such situations.”

As Bloomberg notes, the announcement by Trump, which seemed to tear up an agreement reached only 10 days ago in Washington, is the latest twist in a trade dispute between the U.S. and China that has rattled financial markets for months and could threaten the broadest global upswing in years, according to the International Monetary Fund.

Earlier on Wednesday, the Wall Street Journal reported that the trade talks between the two countries scheduled for June 2 in Beijing may be derailed by the fresh threat from Washington. Specifically, the WSJ reported that in order to test the waters after Trump’s surprising announcement, a U.S. advance team was scheduled to arrive in Beijing Wednesday afternoon ahead of Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross’s planned arrival on Saturday.

Members of the U.S. team, consisting of staffers from the Commerce, Treasury, Agriculture and Energy departments and the office of the U.S. Trade Representative, are set to meet with their Chinese counterparts to hammer out broad outlines of the talks.

If the two sides fail to reach accord about issues to be discussed, Ross’s trip could be canceled, the people said. “If the working-level teams from both sides can’t agree on anything, there would be no point for Ross to take the trip,” one of the WSJ sources said. Should those discussions go well, “the people said the high-level talks would proceed as planned.”

While the ongoing trade dispute poses a risk to China’s economic outlook, the two countries will likely find common ground, said Robin Xing, chief China economist at Morgan Stanley; he expects China will buy an additional $60 billion to $90 billion of American goods over several years as it seeks to address Trump’s criticisms over the trade surplus.

“The two parties can reach a deal by China increasing imports,” Xing said Wednesday in a Bloomberg Television interview from Beijing. “De-escalation over time through negotiation remains our base case because we see areas where China and the U.S. can find some middle ground to make some mutually beneficial progress, for example to meet China’s own demand for upgrading consumption.”

Trump has vacillated in recent weeks on how hard to push Beijing over issues such as tariffs and intellectual property. The dispute began in March, when his administration first threatened to slap tariffs on as much as $50 billion in Chinese shipments to punish Beijing for violating American I.P. rights.

It is unclear if the latest flip-flop jeopardizes what until last weekened was seen as an all but done deal on ZTE, and, reciprocally, NXP-Qualcomm. As a reminder, China pressed the U.S. to give ZTE a break after the Commerce Department cut off the company from U.S. suppliers to punish it for allegedly lying to American officials in a sanctions case. Republican Senator Marco Rubio and other lawmakers from both parties have criticized Trump’s leniency toward ZTE, arguing that doing business with the company presents a risk to national security.

When Trump announced the initial plan to impose tariffs on Chinese goods, he also instructed the Treasury Department to draw up new curbs on investment in the U.S. by Chinese companies. The Treasury has presented its

As Bloomberg accurately highlights, the latest move by Trump signals the more hawkish wing of Trump’s trade team is trying to amplify its hard line, after Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said this month that any talk of a trade war was suspended for now.

“Mnuchin’s ‘trade war on hold’ comments look to have been repudiated,” said Derek Scissors, a China analyst at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. “It may be the administration has shifted somewhat to appease the Congress on the lifting of the ZTE sanctions.”

Which begs the question: is China trade hawk dragon Peter Navarro back in Trump’s good graces, and if so, is the countdown to Mnuchin’s resignation officially on?

end

The war between Mnuchin and Navarro erupts full tilt.   Will Mnuchin be the latest to get the boot

(courtesy zerohedge)

War Erupts Between Trump’s Two Top Trade Advisors Over China

Commenting on the latest, surprise escalation in the US-China trade ceasefire war, in which Trump unexpectedly announced 25% tariffs on up to $50BN in Chinese imports, prompting a fresh round of outrage and confusion in Beijing which was confident it was done with Trump’s “flip-flopping”, we observed that “the latest move by Trump signals the more hawkish wing of Trump’s trade team is trying to amplify its hard line, after Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said this month that any talk of a trade war was suspended for now.”

“Mnuchin’s ‘trade war on hold’ comments look to have been repudiated,” said Derek Scissors, a China analyst at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington. “It may be the administration has shifted somewhat to appease the Congress on the lifting of the ZTE sanctions.”

Which, we concluded, begs the question:

is China trade hawk dragon Peter Navarro back in Trump’s good graces, and if so, is the countdown to Mnuchin’s resignation officially on?

Then just moments later, none other than Peter Navarro himself confirmed that there may be another major battle behind the scenes, when in a rare public rebuke of Steven Mnuchin, Navarro – who the media recently relegated to D-grade advisor status when he was excluded from China talks after reportedly exploding at Mnuchin and Wilbur Ross two weeks ago – called Mnuchin’s claim that the trade war with China was “on hold” an unfortunate sound bite” and admitting that there’s a dispute that needs to be resolved.

“What we’re having with China is a trade dispute, plain and simple,” Navarro said in an interview broadcast Wednesday with National Public Radio. “We lost the trade war long ago” with deals such as Nafta and China’s entry into the World Trade Organization, he said.

Steve Inskeep

@NPRinskeep

“That was an unfortunate sound bite,” says WH adviser Peter Navarro of Steven Mnuchin saying a trade war with China is “on hold.” It’s on hold no longer, though Navarro calls it a “trade dispute.” More in this thread.https://n.pr/2LIdGwH @MorningEdition @npr

Trump Administration Announces New Restrictions On China

Steve Inskeep talks to Peter Navarro, director of the White House National Trade Council, about the tariffs the administration plans to impose on China. Navarro calls it a “historic decision.”

npr.org

Navarro also said that “we can stop them from putting our high tech companies out of business” and “buying up our crown jewels of technology…. Every time we innovate something new, China comes in and buys it or steals it.”

Earlier this month, Mnuchin shocked markets and sent stocks surging after he said in a weekend televised interview that the prospect of a trade war with China was “on hold.” It turns out, Mnuchin was merely saying whatever someone had told him to say.

The latest controversial remark from Navarro, who refuses to go gentle into that good night, came just days before U.S.  Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross is scheduled to meet with his counterparts in Beijing to discuss ways to reduce the U.S.’s trade deficit with China, and – as noted earlier – follows Trump’s surprise announcement that the U.S. is moving ahead with plans to impose tariffs on $50 billion of Chinese imports and curb investment in sensitive technology.

The renewed tariff threats could stop the planned talks and jeopardize a deal, the WSJ reported on Wednesday, citing sources in both countries. A team of U.S. officials was scheduled to arrive in Beijing on Wednesday. Asked about potential Chinese retaliation, especially on American farm goods, Navarro said “we’re ready for anything.”

As for the implications of this growing trade advisor war in Trump’s inner circle, two weeks ago Bill Blain wrote that “Mnuchin’s Name Is Now High On The Trump Deadpool List” and come to think of it, it has been a while since Trump fired anyone…

end

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

On the same theme as Raul Meijer, Italy’s big problem is demographics as working age citizens are falling.  This is the reason why the Brussels allowed mass migration into Europe with Italy having its huge share of them. But these immigrants are not skilled and they are not educated and it will not solve Italy’s problem in the years to come.  The coalition realized this as part of their platform

a must read..

(courtesy Gefira)

Italy & The Euro Cannot Be Saved By Mass-Immigration

Via GEFIRA,

The ongoing euro crisis has never been and will never be solved. The native European populations are shrinking and this will have a consequence for the economy, production and public finance.

The demographic decline is the single most important economic phenomenon. We do not doubt that the annual visitors to the Global Economic Forum in Davos are fully aware of it: they know that the European and East Asian populations are decreasing and that 18 of the 20 top economies will never experience sustainable growth again. The economic press and mainstream analysts somehow do not get it and still believe that countries that will see their native population shrinking by 30% in the next thirty years can increase their GDP.

Italy is the next epicenter of the demographic crisis. The ongoing euro problems and the orchestrated mass migration into Italy are closely related. Italian population began to dwindle last year, a situation that has never happened in modern history. Without immigration, the Italian working-age population will drop by at least 30% before the middle of the century. If the productivity does not change and even if the Italians are able to balance their budget, the consequences are unsolvable.

The Italian GDP will be smaller and smaller in proportion to the fall in the number of the working-age population. Every working-age person in Italy is burdened with a sixty-thousand-euro debt and that amount will grow on average by nearly a thousand euros a year because more people are leaving the working force than entering. The debt ratio will be 200 percent by mid-century. We did not factor in the outflow of young people that are looking for employment in other European countries.

This scenario gives a good indication of the problem Italy faces. In the coming years it is expected that the productivity will go up, but the same holds good for the national debt which will increase by 15 percent since 2012. All Western economies have arrived at the point where productivity has to compensate for the decline in their populations. Italy is the world’s ninth economy and is on a trajectory that in the long run will end in an economic implosion comparable to the 1998 financial crisis in Argentina, number 21 on the world GDP list.

Financial speculators as George Soros, central bankers and part of the political establishment are fully aware of the long-term perspective of the country and the consequences for Europe.If Italy ditches the euro, the situation will be much worse than the 2008 financial crisis. Not only will the value of the euro collapse but investors, business people and the general public will begin to doubt the viability of the euro currency or fiat currency in general.

Politicians within the European Union try to throw the hot potato to the next generation because they know that they will not be able to contain the mayhem if push comes to shove. To deal with the consequence of the ultimate euro crisis is not within their competence.

Italy does not have its own Central Bank and the country cannot unilaterally suppress interest rates or buy its own debt. Creating money out of thin air as the Japanese do is impossible for the Italian political and monetary establishment.

Most politicians are not part of the wealthy elite, so they do not run a risk of winning or losing any assets. They serve their term (and the particular political purpose) and then they are rewarded with a position at one of the irrelevant international organisations. It is the financial and economic elites that will be crushed and lose their assets during such a crisis, so In order to turn the tide they are desperately trying to increase the working-age population in Europe by promoting and organising a relentless stream of immigrants into the old continent. The mass migration into Europe and the US and the financial state of affairs are not unrelated incidents and it is no surprise that such speculators as Soros are facilitating and promoting the re-population of Italy. Soros asserts that Europe should accept half a million refugees annually on top of the regular migration. Over years such an annual number of people will create a community of refugees with the size of the German population.

There is no reason to believe migration from Central Asia and Africa will compensate for the loss of native Europeans. Most of these immigrants come from areas where people have other work ethic than their European counterparts, they lack education and skills to be employable in the Western economies. Unemployment among sub-Sahara Africans in Western Europe is high while there is a high demand for low qualified uneducated East and Central Europeans. For now, some Africans in Italy will provide southern Italy with cheap slave labour in agriculture and the UN and European assistance budget will even bless the region with the influx of money for the charity industry. For the Italian society at large, the massive influx of immigrants from Africa will be a disaster. It will destroy social cohesion, increase government expenditure and fuel general discontent.

The Italians voted for a new policy that would stop fraudulent NGOs that are shipping another hundred thousand migrants this year to Italy. The two big winners of the last election wanted to send undocumented migrants back home and introduce a parallel currency.

The Italian President Sergio Mattarella blocked the creation of a new government to protect the investors outside Italy and give them the opportunity to proceed another year with the shipping of Africans into Italy. It will not change the long-term perspective and while the economic community still believes it is all about economics and competitiveness, we’d rather say “It is the demographics, stupid”.

END’

Raul Meijer highlights the mess in Italy as “Hotel Europa”…a prison where nobody can escape

(courtesy Meijer/Automatic Earth Blog_

Welcome To The Hotel Europa…

Authored by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog,

On Friday, in This is the End of the Euro, I said: The euro has become a cage, a prison for the poorer brethren. The finance minister proposed by 5-Star/Lega and refused by Italian president Mattarella,Paolo Savona, has called the euro a German cage.

There are now stories spreading that the coalition, Savona first of all, were secretly planning an exit from the euro. A series of slides Savona prepared in 2015 on how to exit the euro is used as evidence of that secret plan. But the slides are not secret. Yes, he has said that it’s good to have a plan to leave ‘if necessary’. But that’s not the same as secretly planning such a move.

Every country should have such a plan, and you would hope they do. A government that doesn’t is being very irresponsible. But it’s true, this is how both the EU and the euro have been designed: not just as a prison, but as a prison without any doors or windows. No way to get out. And that will prove to be its fatal flaw.

It has more such flaws, for sure. The inequality of its members, which allows for the richer to feed on the poorer, is a big one. The US founders were smart enough to provide for transfer payments from rich to poorer, the EU founders couldn’t be bothered with that lesson. They must have studied it, though, and rejected it.

Credit were credit’s due: Yanis Varoufakis said it best when he compared the EU to the Eagles’ Hotel California. A few lines:

Mirrors on the ceiling
The pink champagne on ice
And she said “We are all just prisoners here, of our own device”
And in the master’s chambers
They gathered for the feast
They stab it with their steely knives
But they just can’t kill the beast

Last thing I remember
I was running for the door
I had to find the passage back to the place I was before
“Relax,” said the night man
“We are programmed to receive
You can check-out any time you like
But you can never leave!”

The EU was set up as some kind of eternal prison, a concept most familiar to us in the way Christian churches depict Hell, or the ancient Greek mythological story of Prometheus, who, as punishment for providing man with fire, was condemned by Zeus to being tied to a rock, with an eagle feeding on his liver every day, for eternity.

Rule number 1 for any organization: there must always be an escape, a way out. If there isn’t, that’s what will break the whole thing in the end. Think Leonard Cohen’s “There a crack in everything; that’s where the light comes in.” Every system must always be designed with inbuilt redundancy.

Paolo Savona understands that, and he said there must be a way to leave the euro. For Brussels and Rome, that means he’s not acceptable as a finance minister, no matter his competence, experience or credentials. It reeks of desperation on the ‘establishment’ side more than anything.

And now the entire financial world is in panic and turmoil. It’s ironic to see people decrying the sudden weakness in Italian “sovereign debt” at the same time they see pointed out, as if that were still necessary, that Italy is no longer a sovereign country. Think maybe there’s a clue to be found somewhere in there?

Italian bonds are falling so fast traders get vertigo. At what point will Mario Draghi be held accountable for the enormous losses this causes on the ECB’s books?

But fear not: the elites simply blame the whole thing on the people elected in Italy. Yes, that means they blame democracy. For daring to provide an election result that threatens their powers. And no, there is no other way to define what is happening than as a coup.

Italy will soon have all the characteristics of an emerging market. Which is a market from which no one can emerge in an emergency, according to one Don Cowe. I read that the six largest Italian banks together have €143 billion in Italian debt securities on their balance sheet. Systemic banks in the rest of Europe, mainly France, Spain and Germany, have €137 billion of Italian debt on their balance sheet. God only knows how much Mario Draghi holds:

That is one scary chart. And no, that is not the fault of 5-Star/Lega. It’s the fault of the European Union founders, and of its present ‘leadership’. What 5-Star/Lega have done is expose the stark-naked emperor. And the little boy who called out that sovereign didn’t undress him; he went out without any clothes on all by himself.

Varoufakis called out the naked emperor Brussels in 2015. Paolo Savona did so multiple times as well. The emperor’s reaction? Shut up the little boy, not get dressed. But the lesson contained in The Naked Emperor story is that there will always be another little boy to call him out. Shutting up the boy doesn’t solve the problem.

Greece and Italy are where western civilization was born. It appears wonderfully fitting to picture the EU at present as the German eagle picking at the southern European Prometheus’s liver for eternity. All the more so because Prometheus in Greek mythology was the champion of man: he first made man from clay, stood against the gods in favor of mankind, stole fire to provide it to man, and got punished for eternity for it.

The EU and euro cannot survive in their present state. But those who benefit most from both are also the ones who can stop either from undergoing desperately needed changes. That’s Hotel Europa.

END

Pimco sells its Italian bonds and then says that one should go short these bonds.  The ECB says that there is no need to intervene in Italy, not just yet…Reuters reports that the ECB does not have the tools to solve this political mess..

(courtesy zerohedge)

PIMCO Says Short Italian Bonds As ECB Sees “No Need” To Intervene In

Italy

Confirming our speculation from yesterday, that unlike 2012 when Draghi unleashed the infamous “whatever it takes”, this time the ECB, already saddled with trillions in public and private debt and under a political interference spotlight, will have a much harder time intervening in the market, moments ago Reuters reported that the ECB sees no need to intervene in the Italian crisis, as Italy’s borrowing costs were still less than half those seen during the 2010-12 euro zone debt crisis, it sees sees no stress in bank deposits, inbterbank rates or cash auctions, and would not act “on the back of events of just a few days” even as the central bank is keeping a watchful eye on Italy.

To be sure, market speculation that the ECB would be forced to end its QE taper or, worse, intervene imminently has been mounting over the past week as political parties in Italy failed to form a government due to unprecedented intervention by Italy’s president Mattarella, and the notion of a euro exit began to swirl, sending borrowing costs for the euro zone’s largest debtor soaring.

More concerning is what Reuters sources added:

  • ECB DOES NOT HAVE THE TOOLS OR MANDATE TO SOLVE WHAT IS A POLITICAL CRISIS IN ITALY: SOURCES

In other words, Italy is stuck with whatever means the ECB has at its disposal currently. These include Italian banks getting paid the same, deeply negative interest rate – in other words, getting paid – to borrow from their peers against collateral, now the most common form of lending between banks.

Helpfully, auctions of ECB cash also showed no sign of a pent-up in demand from banks. This was largely due to the massive ECB purchases of government bonds and its ultra-low interest rates – the two main planks of a stimulus programme that is expected to be gradually wound down in the coming months despite the Italian crisis.

“We’re not yet at a stage when you have to start worrying about bank deposits and I hope we’ll never get there,” another source said.

While some have taken this as good news, i.e. that Draghi does not see the Italian crisis as sufficiently big to merit an ECB intervention, others have cautioned not to overestimate the bank’s flexibility to react should the Italian turmoil return. This, as more than one trading desk, is the weakest link in the market’s sequence of events, as traders still expect the ECB will do “whatever it takes” to curb more contagion, which is why the risk is that contagion does indeed pick up, especially if Friday’s vote of no confidence in the Rajoy government, passes and leads to another European risk locus.

Meanwhile, one fund which is not catching falling knives, is also the world’s biggest bond fund, Pimco, whose chief investment officer of global fixed income macro, Andrew Balls, said that Italian bonds currently don’t offer sufficient compensation for the risk — although not high — of the nation exiting the euro.

“We’re not forecasting an exit but you do not need a high risk of this to happen to want higher risk compensation,” he told reporters at a briefing in London, adding that Italy could effectively exit the bloc – without actually leaving it – by losing access to the institutions of the euro zone.

For now, however, the market is breathing a sigh of relied with 2Y Italian yields down 100 bps from Tuesday’s closing print, at roughly 1.72%.

END

Five star calls on Savona to withdraw his candidacy for finance minister.  Not sure if the League agrees.  Maybe Brussels will get their wish..

(courtesy zerohedge)

Euro Spikes, Italian Yields Slide After 5-Star Calls On Savona To

Withdraw Candidacy

Just as European markets were closing for the day with the Italian 2Y yield ominously back above 2% and the EURUSD trading in a tight range around 1.6130, a Reuters headline spiked the EUR and sent Italian yields quickly lower, when the newswire reported that in an attempt at compromise, the 5-Star party, the League coalition partner, called on the controversial euroskeptic candidate to head the economy ministry, Paolo Savona, to withdraw his candidacy to a government could be formed.

  • ITALY’S 5-STAR CALLS FOR SAVONA TO WITHDRAW CANDIDACY FOR ECONOMY MINISTRY TO ALLOW GOVT TO BE FORMED

As a reminder, it was Savona’s candidacy that president Mattarella vetoed over the weekend, launching the latest bout of Italian political crisis.

And while it was unclear if League leader Salvini would balk at the proposal, or continue insisting that Savona be the country’s next economy minister, the latest confirmation that a rift is forming between the Lega and the 5-Star was enough to send Italy’s 2Y yield 23 bps lower…

… while the EURUSD spiked to session highs, just shy of 1.1680 and nearly 140 pips higher on the day.

We now wait for an additional comment from either Salvini or Savona, and until then here is the latest soundbite from the League leader:

  • ITALY’S SALVINI SAYS IN ROME `IT’S COMPLETE CHAOS’: ANSA

Salvini added that he hopes a government can be formed with the center-right or with the Five Star Movement “but my patience is near the limit,” he said in remarks at an event near Genoa cited by newswire Ansa.

So was Oettinger right all along, and is Italy about to fold to the whims of the market? Find out shortly.

END
Even Goldman Sachs has no idea what will come next in Italy..they highlight 3 scenarios
(courtesy zerohedge/

8. EMERGING MARKET

After Turkey, Argentina, Columbia, South Africa and Mexico look vulnerable

(courtesy zerohedge)

“Who Is Next?”: Which Emerging Market Will Fall After Turkey

Promises, promises, promises from un-named Turkish officials that the country will “steer clear of capital controls” prompted some reflexive buying in the Lira today…

As Bloomberg reports, Turkey is prepared to raise interest rates again if inflation accelerates, according to two money managers who met with Turkey’s central bank Governor Murat Cetinkaya and Deputy Prime Minister Mehmet Simsek in London today. The nation won’t introduce capital controls, the people cited the officials as saying.

But as Bloomberg’s Chief Asia Economist, Tom Orlik, notes, Turkey remains on the ropes – the fault line was an outsize current account deficit that pushed external debt higher. A slide in governance standards left the problem to fester, and policy makers lost credibility in the market.

So given these factors, Orlik asks – and answers – Who else looks vulnerable?

The results show that while Turkey is the worst of the bunch; Argentina, Colombia, Mexico and South Africa are also underperforming.

To be sure, none of those countries have leaders that quite match Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s brash indifference to market opinion. However, as Orlik notes, with sentiment already soured and the Federal Reserve poised to move again in June, problems for emerging markets could get worse before they get better. It’s worth looking at who else has rickety fundamentals.

Current account deficits are a source of weakness because they require foreign funding – which is getting more expensive as the U.S. tightening cycle progresses and investors focus more on the risks.

Sustained deficits result in rising external debt. Countries that have borrowed extensively from abroad find that higher U.S. rates and more risk conscious investors increase the cost of refinancing.

Finally, one has to weigh reputation and government effectiveness. Critically, Turkey’s problems of deficit and debt would still have been manageable, if policy makers had taken credible steps to address them. The slide in governance standards, and Erdogan’s recent comments on monetary policy, raised fears that the necessary moves – slowing growth to reduce imports – would not be taken.

Putting all those pieces together, Orlik concludes that Argentina, Colombia, Mexico and South Africa end up at the vulnerable end of the spectrum – not as bad as Turkey but exhibiting some of the same problems. At the other end of the spectrum, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand with their current account surpluses, low external debt and – in varying degrees – effective governance look relatively immune.

end

VENEZUELA

Just take a look at Venezuela’s huge inflation number:  13,779%

(courtesy zerohedge/Ramirez)

How do you say Pyrrhic victory in Venezuelan?

#Winning?

Source: MichaelPRamirez.com

Venezuela’s Hyperinflation Problem In Perspective

At the beginning of this month, Venezuela’s opposition-dominated National Assembly released a report showing that the country’s annual inflation rate increased to a mind-blowing 13,779 percent over the past year.

As Statista’s Niall McCarthy notes, that corresponds with a projection made by the International Monetary Fund and visualized on the following infographic which shows that Venezuela’s annual inflation rate will be more than 13,800 percent this year.

Infographic: Venezuela's Hyperinflation Problem In Perspective | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

Steve Hanke, a professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University, has an even higher estimate.He claims that inflation rose by 16,000 percent over the past 12 months.

Even though Venezuela is oil rich, it’s cash-poor and suffers from severe shortages of food and medicine. The government has not published inflation statistics since 2015 and critics have claimed this is an attempt to conceal the scale of the problem.

Venezuela’s currency is worthless, a fact that can be clearly seen by the fact that a cup of coffee cost 2,000 bolivares a year ago. Today it would cost 200,000. Using the IMF’s projections, the infographic shows how the situation compares to other countries.

end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 am

Euro/USA 1.1633 UP .0094/ REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ SPAIN VS CATALONIA/REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES GREEN EXCEPT PARIS CAC 

USA/JAPAN YEN 108.89   UP 0.493  (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/SIGNALS U TURN WITH INCREASED NEGATIVITY IN NIRP/JAPAN OUT OF WEAPONS TO FIGHT ECONOMIC DISASTER/

GBP/USA 1.3279 UP  0.0026  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.2984 DOWN .0045 (CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 94 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1633; / Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED DOWN 79.02 POINTS OR 2.53%  /Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 427,79 POINTS OR 1.40% /AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN .46% / EUROPEAN BOURSES  ALL GREEN EXCEPT PARIS/

The NIKKEI: this WEDNESDAY morning CLOSED DOWN 330.91 OR 1.52%

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED ALL GREEN EXCEPT PARIS CAC

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 427.79 POINTS OR 1.40%  / SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 79.02 POINTS OR 2.53%  /

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN .46%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 330.91 POINTS OR 1.52%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1297.95

silver:$16.38

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.88% !!! UP 3 IN POINTS from FRIDAY night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

The 30 yr bond yield 3.06 UP 4  IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early  WEDNESDAY morning: 94.31 DOWN 49  CENT(S) from FRIDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

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And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.05% DOWN 14  in basis point(s) yield from TUESDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.0.35%  UP 1/10   in basis points yield from TUESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.533% DOWN 9  IN basis point yield from TUESDAY/

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.916  DOWN 25  POINTS in basis point yield from TUESDAY/

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 139 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES TO +.372%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY

END

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IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1661 UP .0123(Euro UP 123 Basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/

USA/Japan: 108.98 UP 0.572 Yen DOWN 57 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3287 UP .0034( POUND UP 34 BASIS POINTS)

USA/Canada 1.2835 UP  .0193 Canadian dollar UP 193 Basis points AS OIL ROSE TO $68.22

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

This afternoon, the Euro was UP 123 to trade at 1.1661

The Yen FELL to 108.98 for a LOSS of 57 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE

The POUND GAINED BY 34 basis points, trading at 1.3287/

The Canadian dollar ROSS by 193 basis points to 1.2835/ WITH WTI OIL RISING TO : $68.32

The USA/Yuan closed AT 6.4190
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.035%  UP 1/10  IN BASIS POINTS / yield/
Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 4   IN basis points from TUESDAY at 2.849 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.024  UP 3      in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 94.087  DOWN 73 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 1:00 PM PM

London: CLOSED UP 56.93 POINTS OR 0.75%
German Dax :CLOSED UP 117.25 OR 0.93%
Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 10.71 POINTS OR 0.20%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 44.90 POINTS OR 0.47%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 446.94 POINTS OR 2,09%

The Dow closed UP 306.33POINTS OR 1.26%

NASDAQ closed UP  65.86  OR .89%   4.00 PM EST

WTI Oil price; 68.32  1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 77.39 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE CROSS: 62.12 DOWN 75/100 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 75 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES TO +.372% FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:30 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:$68.37

BRENT: $77.50

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.85% the dropping yields signify markets are in turmoil

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.02%/

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1664 up .0127  (up 127 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:108.91 up 0.503 YEN down 50 BASIS POINTS/ .

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 94.11 down 71 cent(s)/dangerous as the HIGHER dollar IS DESTROYING THE EMERGING MARKETS.

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.3284 up 0.0031  (FROM YESTERDAY NIGHT UP 31 POINTS)

Canadian dollar: 1.2878 UP 149 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: +372%


VOLATILITY INDEX:  14.91  CLOSED  DOWN 2.11

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.307%  .

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

US Stocks Soar… Because Nothing’s Fixed In

Europe & US Growth Slowed

Equity investors are convinced…

Does this look like Italy is ‘fixed’?

US Bank stocks bounced but remain notably red on the week…

In fact the big US banks are still notably weaker…

And Italian banks hardly rejoiced today…

So The ECB bid BTPs at the auction and The Fed PPT bid US stocks at the open… The Dow remain red on the week, S&P and Trannies faded into the close but Small Caps exploded and held gains on the day…

The Russell 2000 was squeezed to another new record high today as the entire US equity market soared on absolutely nothing. In Europe – no resolutions, no nearer a non-anti-establishment government, and no promise of support from the ECB (in fact the opposite)…

Oh and for those who suggest that buying Small Caps makes sense here as they are domestically-focused – well fuck that, US economic data has been dismal and got worse today as GDP missed expectations…

The simple reason why Small Caps exploded higher is – another massive short squeeze…

The S&P 500 bounced off its 50DMA, pushing back above the 100DMA…

Bonds and Stocks decoupled as US market opened (stocks spiked, bonds were bid)

Credit and Stocks decoupled massively

As an FYI – European HY credit trades wider than US HY credit for the first time since Nov 2013

European Investment Grade credit exploded wider today…

Treasury Yields bounced higher, but remain notably lower from Friday…

30Y yields rose but bonds rallied back down to around the 3.00% level into the close…

The yield curve collapsed today, erasing yesterday’s brief steepening… This is the 2nd lowest close for the 2s30s curve since Oct 2007…

Breakevens bounced today but faded into the close – having never recovered yesterday’s drop…

The Dollar Index tumbled back to unchanged on the week…

Cryptos gave back some of yesterday’s gains leaving them all in the red on the week…

Commodities remained relatively flat on the week but WTI surged ahead of tonight’s API data…

WTI bounced back above $68…

Finally, while the mainstream media celebrates today’s manic melt-up in stocks (blatantly ignoring bonds, credit, economic data, and Italy), the SMART money is paniccing out of the market…

end

MORNING DATA

THIS MORNING, THE BEA REPORTS THAT AS PART OF THE  FIRST QUARTER gdp DATA, THE ECONOMY GREW SLIGHTLY LESS THAN EXPECTED AT 2.2% DOWN FROM 2.3%

(ZEROHEDGE)

Q1 GDP Revised To 2.2%, Misses Across The

Board

One month after the first take of Q1 GDP surprised to the upside, printing at 2.3%, more than the 2.0% consensus estimate, moments ago the BEA reported that as part of its 1st revision of Q1 GDP data, the US economy grew slightly less than expected, with GDP rising an annualized 2.2% (technically 2.17%), missing expectations of a 2.3% print, and down from last month’s 2.32%.

The reason for the decline was a downward revision in Private Inventories, which dipped from the initial reading of 0.43% to just 0.13%, however offset by an increase in Fixed Investment from 0.76% to 1.05%. Meanwhile, net trade was also revised modestly lower, down from 0.2% in the first estimate to 0.08% currently.

Where there was no revision, however, was in personal consumption, which as noted last month, dropped from 2.75% to just 0.73%, the lowest since Q2 2013, largely as a result of a sharp drop in spending on autos and various other durable goods.

On an annualized basis, Personal consumption rose 1.0% in 1Q after rising 4.0% prior quarter.

Today’s release also disclosed that Corporate profits decreased 0.6% at a quarterly rate in the first quarter of 2018 after decreasing 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2017. However, on a Y/Y basis, corporate profits rose 4.3% in 1Q after rising 2.7% prior quarter. Meanwhile, in what was a blockbuster quarter for banks, financial industry profits increased 0.5% Q/q in 1Q after falling 3% prior quarter. Oddly, Federal Reserve bank profits down 2.9% in 1Q after rising 0.7% prior quarter.

Finally, rate hike odds will likely ease further after today’s PCE data showed more softness, with the GDP deflator deflating from 2.0% to 1.9% (below the 1.9% expected), Core PCE rising 2.3%, also below the 2.5% expected, while Headline PCE of 2.6% completed the trifecta of misses, declining from 2.7% and missing the 2.7% consensus estimate.

Overall, between today’s miss in ADP and disappointing GDP print, we may see even more weakness on the dollar before the day is done.

end

I guess this is the logical outcome with a rising interest rate:  mortgage refi activity plunges to 18 yr lows

(courtesy zerohedge)

Mortgage Refi Activity Plunges To 18 Year Lows (And It’s About To Get A Lot Worse)

It appears The Fed’s desperate efforts to normalize interest rates (and its balance sheet) before the next recession strikes is reflexively driving a significant part of the economy towards that very end.

As the Mortgage Bankers Association reportsmortgage applications decreased 2.9% from one week earlier.

The Refinance Index decreased 5% from the previous week to its lowest level since December 2000.

The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2% from one week earlier.

The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 3% compared with the previous week and was 2 percent higher than the same week one year ago. …

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($453,100 or less) decreased to 4.77 percent from 4.78 percent, with points remaining unchanged at 0.50 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.

And given the recent surge in mortgage rates, it’s about to get a lot worse…

And it appears Homebuilder stocks are starting to pick up those signals – despite, still near cycle high NAHB optimism…

SWAMP STORIES

Glen Simpson lied to the Committee as to whether he did work on the dossier after the election. He stated no but in reality he did.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Grassley: Fusion GPS Testimony “Extremely

Misleading, If Not An Outright Lie”

Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-IA) has accused Fusion GPS founder Glenn Simpson of giving “extremely misleading” testimony that may have been an “outright lie” regarding his post-election work conducting opposition research on the Trump matter.

Of note, when Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) asked Simpson if he was still being paid for work related to the dossier, Simpson refused to answer.

So you didn’t do any work on the Trump matter after the election date; that was the end of your work?” Schiff asked.

Simpson responded, saying: “I had no client after the election.

where we do have actual evidence of misleading testimony in Committee interviews, we should treat it seriously. For example, when the Committee staff interviewed Glenn Simpson in August of 2017, Majority staff asked him: “So you didn’t do any work on the Trump matter after the election date, that was the end of your work?” Mr. Simpson answered: “I had no client after the election.” 

As we now know, that was extremely misleading, if not an outright lie. -Sen. Chuck Grassley

“Contrary to Mr. Simpson’s denial in the staff interview, according to the FBI and others,” Grassley notes, “Fusion actually did continue Trump dossier work for a new client after the election.”

Grassley also noted comments made by Senate Intelligence Committee staffer Daniel Jones, who is conducting an ongoing, private investigation into Trump-Russia claims is being funded with $50 million supplied by George Soros and a group of 7-10 wealthy donors from California and New York.

This effort was originally revealed in February and reported on by The Federalistafter a series of leaked text messages between Senator Mark Warner (D-VA) and lobbyist Adam Waldmansuggested that Daniel J. Jones – an ex-FBI investigator and former Feinstein staffer, was intimately involved with ongoing efforts to retroactively validate a series of salacious and unverified memos published by Christopher Steele, a former British intelligence agent, and Fusion GPS.

In short, Jones is working with Fusion GPS and Christopher Steele to continue their investigation into Donald Trump, using a $50 million war chest just revealed by the House Intel Committee report.

Simpson was commissioned by the DNC and Hillary Clinton campaign to perform opposition research on the Trump campaign during the 2016 election. Through their efforts they recruited former MI6 spy Christopher Steele to compile the salacious and unverified “Steele Dossier” used in part by the FBI to apply for a FISA surveillance warrant on Trump campaign aide Carter Page.

“So, despite the fact Mr. Simpson said he had no client after the election, he in fact did, and that client revealed himself to the FBI,” Grassley said.

end

I will  see you THURSDAY night

HARVEY

 

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One comment

  1. themagicbusguy · · Reply

    Harvey, the EFP s look like Wash Trades to me. Attempting to create the appearance that Comes contracts are in hot demand, only to be cash settled off market

    Liked by 1 person

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