GOLD: $1295.60 DOWN $4.70 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)
Silver: $16.86 DOWN 5 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)
Closing access prices:
Gold $1295.60
silver: $16.87
For comex gold:
JUNE/
NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR JUNE CONTRACT:425 NOTICE(S) FOR 42500 OZ.
TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR 6587 FOR 658,700 OZ (20.488 tonnes)
For silver:
JUNE
16 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR
80,000 OZ/
Total number of notices filed so far this month: 923 for 4,615,000 oz
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Bitcoin: BID $6795/OFFER $6895: down $32(morning)
Bitcoin: BID/ $6510/offer $6610: DOWN $317 (CLOSING/5 PM)
end
First Shanghai gold fix comes at 10 pm est
The second Shanghai gold fix: 2:15 pm
First Shanghai gold fix gold: 10 pm est: 1303.34
NY price at the same time: 1298.45
PREMIUM TO NY SPOT: $4.89
Second gold fix early this morning: 1303.52
USA gold at the exact same time:1297.25
PREMIUM TO NY SPOT: $6.28
AGAIN, SHANGHAI REJECTS NEW YORK PRICING.
WE WILL NOT PROVIDE LONDON FIXES AS THEY ARE NOT ACCURATE AS TO WHAT IS GOING ON AT THE SAME TIME FRAME.
Let us have a look at the data for today
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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG 2208 CONTRACTS FROM 230,413 UP TO 232,621 ACCOMPANYING YESTERDAY’S GOOD 18 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING. WE ARE NOW WITNESSING OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY COMEX LONG LIQUIDATION AS WE ENTERED INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE AS LONGS PACK THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATE OVER TO LONDON. WE WERE NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP: 2473 EFP’S FOR JULY, 153 EFP’S FOR SEPT. AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 2626 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 2626 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 2626 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 13.13 MILLION OZ ACCOMPANYING:
1.THE 18 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND
2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR JUNE COMEX DELIVERY. (4.630 MILLION OZ) DESPITE IT BEING A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.
ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF JUNE:
19,255 CONTRACTS (FOR 8 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 19,255 CONTRACTS) OR 96.28 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2406 CONTRACTS OR 12.034 MILLION OZ/DAY)
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER: SO FAR THIS MONTH: 96.28 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 13.71% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)
ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S: 1,410.47 MILLION OZ.
ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018: 236.879 MILLION OZ
ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018: 244.95 MILLION OZ
ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018: 236.67 MILLION OZ
ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL 2018: 385.75 MILLION OZ
ACCUMULATION FOR MAY 2018: 210.05 MILLION OZ
RESULT: WE HAD AN STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX OF 2208 WITH THE GOOD 18 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICE. WE HAVE NOW ENTERED THE NEW NON ACTIVE MONTH OF JUNE. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT IN FACT WE HAD AN SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2626 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) . FROM THE CME DATA: 2473 EFP CONTRACTS FOR JULY, 153 EFP’S FOR SEPT. AND ZERO FOR ALL OVER MONTHS FOR A DELIVERABLE FORWARD CONTRACT OVER IN LONDON WITH A FIAT BONUS (TOTAL: 2626). TODAY WE GAINED A STRONG: 4834 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: i.e.2626 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH AN INCREASE OF 2208 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH THE GOOD 18 CENT RISE IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $16.91 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN THIS NON ACTIVE JUNE DELIVERY MONTH. IT SURE LOOKS LIKE A FAILED BANKER SHORT COVERING EXERCISE!!
In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.163 MILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 166% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).
FOR THE NEW FRONT JUNE MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 16 NOTICE(S) FOR 80,000 OZ OF SILVER
IN SILVER, WE HAVE NOW SET THE NEW RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51 ON APRIL 9.2018. (AND IN LOOKS LIKE WE ARE GOING TO SEE ANOTHER RECORD HIT THIS MONTH)
ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:
- HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ AND MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ /AND JUNE/2018 (4.630 MILLION OZ SO FAR)
- HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018
- HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
- RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/ (FINAL)
AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND. TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT). IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE BANKER CAPITULATION IN SILVER AS THEY STRUGGLE TO REMOVE SOME OF THEIR HUGE OBLIGATIONS.
In gold, the open interest FELL BY A TINY 77 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 446,828 DESPITE THE GAIN IN THE GOLD PRICE/YESTERDAY’S TRADING (RISE OF $0.65). WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE. NO DOUBT THE BOYS ARE CASHING IN THEIR COMEX LONGS TO BEGIN THE PROCESS TO MOVE INTO LONDON FORWARDS. THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 4685 CONTRACTS : JUNE SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 0 CONTRACTS , AND AUGUST SAW THE ISSUANCE OF: 4685 CONTRACTS WITH ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO. The new OI for the gold complex rests at 446,828. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S. THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY. THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED OI GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 77 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND A FAIR SIZED 4685 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN: 4,568 CONTRACTS OR 456,800 OZ = 14.208 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A TINY GAIN OF $0.65
YESTERDAY, WE HAD 5110 EFP’S ISSUED.
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY : 76,108 CONTRACTS OR 7,610,800 OZ OR 236.72 TONNES (8 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 9513 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY OR 951,300 OZ/ TRADING DAY),,
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 7 TRADING DAYS IN TONNES: 236.72 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 236.72/2550 x 100% TONNES = 9.28% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN APRIL ALONE.***
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE: 3,688.55* TONNES *SURPASSED ANNUAL PROD’N
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018: 653.22 TONNES
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018: 649.45 TONNES
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018: 741.89 TONNES (22 TRADING DAYS)
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR APRIL 2018: 713.84 TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MAY 2018: 693.80 TONNES ( 22 TRADING DAYS)
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
Result: A TINY SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 77 DESPITE THE TINY $0.65 GAIN IN PRICE // GOLD TRADING YESTERDAY ($0.65 RISE). WE ALSO HAD AN FAIR SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 4685 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED. THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX. I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 4685 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD AN NET GAIN OF 4568 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:
4685 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 77 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 14.208 TONNES). ..AND BELIEVE IT OR NOT BUT ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED AT THE COMEX WITH A TINY GAIN OF $0.65 IN TRADING!!!.
we had: 309 notice(s) filed upon for 30,900 oz of gold at the comex.
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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:
GLD...
WITH GOLD DOWN $4.70 TODAY: / NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ /GLD INVENTORY 828.76 TONNES
Inventory rests tonight: 828.76 tonnes.
SLV/
WITH SILVER DOWN A TINY 5 CENTS TODAY / A HUGE CHANGES IN THE SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/THE CROOKS RAIDED THE SILVER COOKIE JAR TO THE TUNE OF 1.976 MILLION OZ (WITHDRAWAL)
/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.290 MILLION OZ/
end
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY AN STRONG SIZED 2208CONTRACTS from 230,413 UP TO 232,621 (AND, FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET /APRIL 9/2017 AT 243,411/SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). THE PREVIOUS RECORD OTHER THAN WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER ONE YEAR AGO. THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89. OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS CONTINUES AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE: (WE DO NOT GET A LOOK AT THESE CONTRACTS AS IT IS PRIVATE BUT THE CFTC DOES AUDIT THEM), 2473 EFP’S FOR JULY, 153 EFP CONTRACTS FOR SEPT. AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2626 CONTRACTS . EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 2208 CONTRACTS TO THE 2626 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S, WE OBTAIN A GAIN OF 4834 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 24.17 MILLION OZ!!! AND THIS STRONG SIZED DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A GOOD 18 CENT RISE IN PRICE . THE BANKERS ORCHESTRATED THEIR RAID THROUGHOUT LAST WEEK DESPERATELY TRYING TO PARE THEIR GIGANTIC OPEN INTEREST SHORT ON BOTH EXCHANGES BUT TO NO AVAIL. JUDGING BY THE RECORD NUMBER OF EFP ISSUANCE DURING APRIL AT 385.75 MILLION OZ AND THE CONTINUAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES, THE CONSTANT RAIDS, (THAT ARE NOW BEING CALLED UPON BY OUR BANKER FRIENDS IN AN ATTEMPT TO SHAKE AS MANY SILVER LEAVES FROM THE SILVER TREE AS POSSIBLE) AND JUDGING BY THE RESULTS FROM YESTERDAYS ACTION, THEY HAVE NOT BEEN AT ALL SUCCESSFUL.
RESULT: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 18 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING YESTERDAY. BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER STRONG SIZED 2626 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR JUNE, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.
(report Harvey)
.
2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report
(Harvey)
2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore
(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge
and in NY: Bloomberg
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
)TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed UP 27.02 points or 0.89% /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 39.36 points or 0.13% / The Nikkei closed UP 74.31 POINTS OR 0.33% /Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .13% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.4043/Oil UP to 66.02 dollars per barrel for WTI and 76.08 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED//. ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.4043 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.4005/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING MUCH STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING MUCH WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE A FULL TRADE WAR IS BEGINNING/
/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
i)North Korea/South Korea/USA
The following is the first of many summits, but it seems that Kim is committed to denuclearizaiton
( zerohedge)
b) REPORT ON JAPAN
3 c CHINA
i)Despite his success in North Korea, this morning, China redeploys missiles on the contested South China Sea island of Woody Island part of the Parcel islands
( zero hedge)
ii)the Senate adds a ZTE killing deal amendment to its defense bill..that which will no doubt anger China
( zerohedge)
4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
i)ITALY/SPAIN
A stranded migrant ship which was originally headed for Italy, has run out of food as an Italian rescue vessel takes the refugees to Spain
(courtesy zerohedge)
ii)UK
REBELLION IN THE UK MAY GOVERNMENT AHEAD OF A CRITICAL “BREXIT” AMENDMENT VOTE
(courtesy zerohedge)
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
( zerohedge)
6 .GLOBAL ISSUES
7. OIL ISSUES
SAUDI ARABIA
oil production jumps considerably in June despite a good drop in oil demand according to a statement by OPEC
( zerohedge)
8. EMERGING MARKET
9. PHYSICAL MARKETS
The worst kind: Bitcoin tumbles below $6500 on no news. The boys seem to be dumping
(courtesy zerohedge)
10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silveri)
Naturally the interest component is increasing due to the higher debt held at 21 trilllion dollars
We will no doubt hit 1.2 trillion deficit by next year coupled with 600 billion of bonds that must be purchased due to the Fed rolling off these amounts of bonds. The USA must raise a monstrous 1.8 trillion dollars in bond issuance.
(courtesy zerohedge)
v)SWAMP STORIES
b)Oh this is very funny!! Mueller scrambles to limit evidence after the indicted Russians actually show up in court!!!
Trading Volumes on the COMEX
PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY: 224,437 contracts
CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY: 219,170 contracts
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And now for the wild silver comex results.
Total silver OI ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2208 CONTRACTS FROM 230,413 UP TO 232,621 (AND A GOOD CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) WITH THE GOOD 18 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING/ YESTERDAY. SINCE WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE, WE WERE INFORMED THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED 2473 EFP CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR JULY, 153 EFP CONTRACTS FOR SEPT. AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS. THESE EFPS WERE ISSUED TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 2626. ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 4834 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A 2208 CONTRACT GAIN AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 2626 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 4834 CONTRACTS
AMOUNT STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX
We are now in the NON active delivery month of JUNE and here the front month ROSE BY 4 contracts RISING TO 19 contracts. We had 13 notices filed upon yesterday so we gained 17 contracts or an additional 85,000 oz will stand in this non active delivery month of June AS SOMEBODY IS IN URGENT NEED OF PHYSICAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND AND QUEUE JUMPING CONTINUES IN EARNEST
The next big active delivery month for silver is July and here the OI LOST 429 contracts DOWN to 133,090. The next delivery month is August and here we GAINED 5 contracts to stand at 46. The next active delivery month after August for silver is September and here the OI ROSE by 2206 contracts UP to 63,602
We had 16 notice(s) filed for 80,000 OZ for the JUNE 2018 COMEX contract for silver
INITIAL standings for JUNE/GOLD
JUNE 12/2018.
Gold | Ounces |
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil oz |
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz |
nil OZ
|
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz | NIL oz |
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | nil
oz |
No of oz served (contracts) today |
425 notice(s)
42,500 OZ
|
No of oz to be served (notices) |
664 contracts
(66,400 oz)
|
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month |
6587 notices
658,700 OZ
20.488 TONNES
|
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | xxx oz |
For JUNE:
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 369 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 425 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 170 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.
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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JUNE. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (6587) x 100 oz or 658,700 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE. (1089 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (425 x 100 oz per contract) equals 725,100 oz, the number of ounces standing in this active month of JUNE (22.553 tonnes)
Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JUNE contract month:
No of notices served (6587 x 100 oz) + {(1089)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (425 x 100 oz )which equals 725,100 oz standing in this active delivery month of JUNE .
WE GAINED 11 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 1100 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY AS QUEUE JUMPING IS STARTING TO INTENSIFY AT THE GOLD COMEX SOMETHING THAT WHICH WE HAVE WITNESSED IN SILVER FOR THE PAST YEAR.
“THERE ARE ONLY 15.783 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 22.553 TONNES STANDING WHICH IS MAKING THIS JUNE CONTRACT MONTH AN EXTREMELY INTERESTING ONE TO WATCH (of which probably 5.90 tonnes have already been settled)
IN THE LAST 18 MONTHS 74 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.
end
And now for silver
AND NOW THE APRIL DELIVERY MONTH
JUNE INITIAL standings/SILVER
Silver | Ounces |
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | nil oz |
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory |
1,315,787.784 oz
CNT
HSBC
|
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory |
nil;
oz
|
Deposits to the Customer Inventory |
1,032,259.960
oz
jpmorgan
Delaware
Brinks
|
No of oz served today (contracts) |
16
CONTRACT(S)
(80,000 OZ)
|
No of oz to be served (notices) |
3 contracts
(15,000 oz)
|
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 923 contracts
(4,615,000 oz) |
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things
total dealer deposits: nil oz
we had 3 deposits into the customer account
i) Into JPMorgan: 396,822,600 oz
ii) Into Brinks: 505,747.420 oz
iii) Into Delaware: 129,689.940 oz
*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.
JPMorgan now has 140 million oz of total silver inventory or 52.3% of all official comex silver. (140 million/268 million)
total customer deposits today: 1,032,259,960 oz
we had 2 withdrawals from the customer account;
i) Out of CNT: 562,173.862 oz
ii) Out of HSBC: 753,613.922 oz
total withdrawals; 597,642.656 oz
we had 0 adjustment/
total dealer silver: 66.073 million
total dealer + customer silver: 269.798 million oz
The total number of notices filed today for the JUNE. contract month is represented by 16 contract(s) FOR 80,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JUNE., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 923 x 5,000 oz = 4,615,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE. (19) and the number of notices served upon today (16 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
.
Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JUNE contract month: 923(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JUNE(19) -number of notices served upon today (16)x 5000 oz equals 4,630,000 oz of silver standing for the JUNE contract month
PLEASE NOTE THE FOLLOWING FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES:
ON MAY 31.2017 WE INITIALLY HAD 396 OPEN INTEREST STAND OR A LARGE 1.98 MILLION OZ
STOOD FOR METAL.
AT THE CONCLUSION OF JUNE 2017: 4.92 MILLION OZ FINALLY STOOD AS QUEUE JUMPING STARTED IN EARNEST AND IN THE ENSUING YEAR, IT CONTINUED WITH RECKLESS ABANDON INCLUDING WHAT YOU ARE WITNESSING TODAY
We gained 17 contracts or an additional 85,000 oz will stand in this non active delivery month of June as somebody was in urgent need of silver. IN SILVER QUEUE JUMPING HAS BEEN THE NORM FOR OVER A YEAR. IT LOOKS LIKE GOLD WANTS TO JOIN ITS WEAKER SISTER IN THIS SAME PHENOMENON
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ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 91,707 CONTRACTS
CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY:85,249 CONTRACTS
YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 85,249 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO 426 MILLION OZ OR 60.8% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER
COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44
end
NPV for Sprott
1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -2.96% (JUNE 12/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.47% to NAV (JUNE 12/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -2.96%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ territory at -0.47%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail but being rescued by Sprott.
Sprott WINS hostile 3.1 billion bid to take over Central Fund of Canada
(courtesy Sprott/GATA)
3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA): NAV FALLS TO -2.44%: NAV 13.62/TRADING 13.32//DISCOUNT 2.27.
END
And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/
JUNE 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.75:NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 828.76 TONNES
JUNE 11/WITH GOLD UP 65 CENTS/THE CROOKS RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR FOR 3.83 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 828.76 TONNES
JUNE 8/WITH GOLD DOWN 10 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 832.59 TONNES./
JUNE 7/WITH GOLD UP $1.45, THE CROOKS DECIDED TO RAID AGAIN THE GLD GOLD COOKIE JAR TO THE TUNE OF 3.54 TONNES/GOLD INVENTORY LOWERS TO 832.59 TONNES
JUNE 6/WITH GOLD UP $1.30 TODAY, WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.13 TONNES
JUNE 5/WITH GOLD UP $5.30 TODAY, WE HAD A TINY WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES AND THAT NO DOUBT WAS TO PAY FOR FEES/836.13 TONNES
JUNE 4/WITH GOLD DOWN ONLY $2.50, THE CROOKS UNLEASHED A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 10.61 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.42 TONNES
JUNE 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.10 TODAY, A HUGE 4.42 TONNES OF GOLD WAS WITHDRAWN FROM THE GLD AND THIS WAS USED IN THE RAID TODAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 847.03 TONNES
MAY 31/WITH GOLD DOWN 1.60/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 851.45 TONNES
MAY 30/WITH GOLD UP $2.70: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.95 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 851.45 TONNES
MAY 29/2018/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.50/ NO CHANGES IN GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 848.50 TONNES
May 25/WITH GOLD UP ON THE WEEK BUT DOWN 80 CENTS TODAY: WE HAD A HUGE 3.54 TONNES OF GOLD WITHDRAWAL FROM THE CROOKED GLD/
MAY 24/WITH GOLD UP $12.40/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.04
MAY 22/WITH GOLD UP $1.05/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.04 TONNES
MAY 21/WITH GOLD DOWN 50 CENTS/A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY/A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.24 TONNES FORM GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.04 TONNES
MAY 18/WITH GOLD UP $1.80/A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ A DEPOSIT OF 9.11 TONNES INTO GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.28 TONNES/
GLD WAS ONE MASSIVE FRAUD
May 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.75/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.17 TONNES
MAY 16./WITH GOLD UP $1.05: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.17 TONNES
MAY 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $27.35, THE CROOKS WITHDREW 10 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD WHICH WAS USED IN THE RAID TODAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.17 TONNES
MAY 14/ WITH GOLD DOWN $2.35: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 4.68 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD and then a withdrawal of 1.48 tonnes /INVENTORY RESTS AT 866.17
A net gain of 3.2 tonnes of gold.
MAY 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.75/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.96 TONNES/
MAY 10/WITH GOLD UP $9.60/A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.96 TONNES/SUCH CROOKS
MAY 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.55/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.13 TONNES
MAY 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.10/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.13 TONNES
MAY 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.55/ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.13 TONNES
MAY 4/WITH GOLD UP $2.05/A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.13 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.60 TONNES
MAY 3/WITH GOLD UP $7.05/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 866.77 TONNES
MAY 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.15/ A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.43 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 866.77 TONNES
MAY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.15/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.20 TONNES
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
JUNE 12/2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 828,76 tonnes
*IN LAST 395 TRADING DAYS: 97.83 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 345 TRADING DAYS: A NET 58.47 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO GLD INVENTORY.
end
Now the SLV Inventory/
JUNE 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS/A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ THE CROOKS RAID THE SILVER COOKIE JAR BY 1.976 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 317.290 MILLION OZ/
jUNE 11/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/319.266 MILLION OZ
JUNE 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS/A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.412 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY LOWERS TO 319.266 MILLION OZ/
JUNE 7/WITH SILVER UP ANOTHER 12 CENTS/A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SL: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.883 MILLION OZ WITH ALL OF THAT SILVER DEMAND//INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.678 MILLION OZ/
JUNE 6/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.561 MILLION OZ/
JUNE 5/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.561 MILLION OZ
JUNE 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 1 CENTA SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 522,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/.INVENTORY RISES AT 322.561 MILLION OZ/
JUNE 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 322.039 MILLION OZ/
MAY 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 322.039 MILLION OZ/
MAY 30/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A DEPOSIT OF 2.071 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.039 MILLION OZ/
MAY 29.2018/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.968 OZ
May 25/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 319.968 AS WE HAD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.035 MILLION OZ
MAY 24/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.003 MILLION OZ/
MAY 22/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.003 MILLION OZ/
MAY 21/ WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.003 MILLION OZ/
MAY 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A WITHDRAWAL OF 942,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.003 MILLION OZ/
May 17/WITH GOLD UP 6 CENTS/A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 471,000 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.945 MILLION OZ/
MAY 16./WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS/A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.883 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.474 MILLION OZ
MAY 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS, NO CHANGES AT THE SLV; THE CROOKS COULD NOT BORROW ANY SILVER BECAUSE THERE IS NONE: INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.591 MILLION OZ
MAY 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS/A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A WITHDRAWAL OF 858,000 FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.591 MILLION OZ/
MAY 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS/THE CROOKS WITHDREW A MONSTROUS 2.824 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.439 MILLION OZ/
MAY 10/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 323.263 MILLION OZ/
MAY 9/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 323.263 MILLION OZ/
MAY 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 323.263 MILLION OZ.
MAY 7/WITH SILVER FLAT: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 942,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 323.263 MILLION OZ/
MAY4/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS/A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A DEPOSIT OF 1.224 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.205 MILLION OZ/
MAY 2/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS/A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 6.082 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.981 MILLION OZ/
MAY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.899 MILLION OZ/
JUNE 12/2018:
Inventory 317.290 million oz
end
6 Month MM GOFO 2.21/ and libor 6 month duration 2.49
Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:
G0FO+ 2.21%
libor 2.49 FOR 6 MONTHS/
GOLD LENDING RATE: .28%
XXXXXXXX
12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.76%
LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.61
GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE
GOLD LENDING RATE = +.15
end
end
Major gold/silver trading /commentaries for TUESDAY
GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.
GOLD/SILVER
ANDREW MAGUIRE’S KINESIS WHICH IS A”BITCOIN’ BACKED 100% BY ALLOCATED GOLD AND SILVER
Andrew Maguire’s Kinesis money which is a “bitcoin” but backed 100% by allocated gold and silver is set to go.
it think it would be a great idea to look at this!
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Dear Harvey Organ,
Thank you for your participation in our webinar on June 7th with our host and CEO of Kinesis, Thomas Coughlin.
The response we received has been incredible, we appreciate you taking the time to join us and hope you found it to be beneficial.
Due to such a high influx of questions we received we were unable to have them all answered. Nevertheless, if there was anything which requires more clarification, or you have a query which needs to be rectified, we invite you to join our telegram group:
We apologize for the technical issues we incurred during the webinar which resulted in it running a little over schedule, we hope that the next one we host will run seamlessly.
A video has been put together and uploaded onto our YouTube channel which can be found here:
Please share and subscribe to our YouTube channel to be notified of all the latest videos as they become available.
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a:C/O ILS Fiduciaries (IOM) Limited, First Floor,Millennium House, Victoria Road, Douglas, Isle of Man IM2 4RW
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The following is self explanatory
(courtesy GATA/Chris Powell and Harvey Organ)
GATA asks bank regulator to check risks of gold
futures maneuver
Submitted by cpowell on Sun, 2018-06-10 16:17. Section: Daily Dispatches
12:21p ET Sunday, June 10, 2018
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
GATA has appealed to the U.S. comptroller of the currency, who has regulatory authority over banks, to review financial risks certain banks may have incurred through derivatives in the monetary metals markets, particularly through the recent heavy use of the “exchange for physicals” mechanism of settling gold and silver futures contracts on the New York Commodities Exchange.
The appeal was made in a letter sent May 5 to the comptroller, Joseph M. Otting, whose office is part of the U.S. Treasury Department, by your secretary/treasurer and GATA futures market consultant Harvey Organ.
“Exchange for physical” settlements of futures contracts long were considered emergency procedures when a seller was not able to deliver metal from an exchange-approved warehouse and wanted to settle with delivery elsewhere. But now such settlements appear to constitute most gold and silver futures settlements on the Comex. It is a strange development that appears to have been necessitated by the increasing difficulties of central banking’s gold and silver price suppression policy.
GATA has received no acknowledgment of the letter. Its text is below and a PDF copy of it is here:
http://www.gata.org/files/ComptrollerOfCurrencyLetter.pdf
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
* * *
May 5, 2018
Joseph M. Otting, Comptroller of the Currency
U.S. Treasury Department
400 7th Street, SW
Washington DC 20219
Dear Comptroller Otting:
Please let us bring to your attention financial risks to major banks involving their possibly unreported exposure to derivatives in the monetary metals markets.
In recent months gold and silver future contracts issued by U.S. banks on the New York Commodities Exchange have been moved off-exchange for delivery through a mechanism known as “exchange for physical” (EFP) contracts. Until recently use of this mechanism was considered an emergency procedure when a seller did not have access to metal for delivery through Comex warehouses. Now the mechanism seems to be in use for a large share of front-month contracts for which delivery is sought.
Here is an example that is happening at the Comex in the front active month of April for gold and the inactive delivery month of April for silver.
In gold, there were 229,436 EFP contracts for 713.64 tonnes, an average of 10,925 contracts and 1,092,500 ounces per trading day.
In silver, there were 77,150 EFP contracts for 385,750,000 ounces, an average of 3,673 contracts and 18,369,000 ounces per trading day.
London Bullion Market Association rules suggest that these contracts may not be reported to regulators. The LBMA’s bylaws say:
“Figures above exclude any contracts not subject to risk-based capital requirements, such as FX contracts with an original maturity of 14 days or less, futures contracts, written options, and basis swaps. Therefore, the total notional amount of derivatives by maturity will not add to the total derivatives figure in this table.”
We are told that these EFP contracts are transferred from the Comex to London as what are called “serial forwards” and their duration is always less than 14 days, which exempts them from being reported.
It is our understanding that in each quarter your office prepares a report detailing risk undertaken by the banks under the comptroller’s supervision.
These risks include derivatives undertaken by U.S. banks and other obligations that may cause a bank to fail. Our concern is that your office may not be aware of large unreported derivative exposure by banks.
Could you review this matter and let us know your conclusions?
Sincerely,
CHRIS POWELL
Secretary/Treasurer
HARVEY ORGAN
Consultant
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
7 Villa Louisa Road
Manchester, Connecticut 06043-7541
END
as a follow up:
Bill, Ed, Harvey:
From: Chris Powell <cxpowell@yahoo.com>
Date: Mon, Jun 11, 2018 at 12:21 AM
Subject: letter to comptroller of the currency
To: Mary Yatrousis <mary.yatrousis@mail.house.gov>Hi, Mary:Here’s a somewhat more substantial request for help from Representative Larson.Attached as a PDF is a letter my organization, the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc., sent to the U.S. comptroller of the currency more than a month ago. We have gotten no acknowledgment.I realize that the mail can be slow in Washington as it undergoes security checks, but I’d be grateful if the comptroller’s office could be encouraged to respond in the near future.Thanks again.
cp
end
The worst kind: Bitcoin tumbles below $6500 on no news. The boys seem to be dumping
*(courtesy zerohedge)
Bitcoin Tumbles Below $6500 As Cryptos
Suddenly Plunge
Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results, important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST
i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP TO 6.4043 /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 27.02 POINTS OR 0.89% HANG SANG CLOSED UP 39.36 POINTS OR 0.13%
2. Nikkei closed UP 74,31 POINTS OR 0.33% / /USA: YEN RISES TO 110.23/
3. Europe stocks OPENED MIXED / /USA dollar index FALLS TO 93.58/Euro RISES TO 1.1786
3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO . +.05/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 110.00/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD FINALLY IN THE POSITIVE/BANK OF JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR YIELD CURVE AS THEY PURCHASE ALL BONDS TO GET TO ZERO RATE!!
3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning
3e WTI:: 66.02 and Brent: 76.08
3f Gold UP/Yen DOWN
3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.
3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.51%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 2.81% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.48%
3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 4.47
3k Gold at $1297.25 silver at:16.86 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50
3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 4/100 in roubles/dollar) 62.58
3m oil into the 64 dollar handle for WTI and 75 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 110.23 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9840 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1598 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017
3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to +0.51%
The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.
4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.96% early this morning (THIS IS DEADLY TO ALL MARKETS). Thirty year rate at 3.10%
5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.
(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)
Stock Rally Fizzles As Korea Summit Fails To
Impress; Market Waiting “For Bigger Things”
Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk
- Summit between Trump and Kim ends
- UK front-bencher resigns ahead of House of Commons EU Withdrawal Bill vote
- Looking ahead, highlights include, US CPI, APIs and UK House of Commons debates EU Withdrawal Bill
Markets shrugged off the the much anticipated historic” Singapore summit, with the global stock rally fading, US futures and Asian currencies falling amid a buoyant dollar, and the S. Korea won reversing an earlier gain after the Trump-Kim summit didn’t result in any major breakthroughs and culminated with a document signed by the two leaders including unspecified security guarantees and a vague, unenforceable denuclearization commitment.
“Despite the historic event, the markets haven’t moved much because they’ve already discounted the risk of military conflict,” Goldman’s co-head of Korea research Goohoon Kwon told Bloomberg Television. What’s more important going forward is the “follow-through, execution, implementation” of any agreements, he said.
There is some doubt about that: none other than Iran was quick to troll the US and warn North Korea that the agreement isn’t worth the paper it was signed on:
- IRAN GOVERNMENT SPOKESMAN WARNS NORTH KOREA THAT TRUMP COULD CANCEL THEIR AGREEMENT BEFORE RETURNING TO WASHINGTON – IRNA
Commenting on the overnight session’s muted trading, Bloomberg notes that “markets are waiting for bigger things” with most asset classes remained within tight ranges. The big surprise was the lack of any real reaction to any of the Trump/Kim summit.
As Bloomberg also notes, there was never much prospect of the U.S.-North Korea summit triggering a large market reaction, except perhaps in the event of a shock outcome. A seemingly certain Federal Reserve rate increase on Wednesday, plus the prospect of a hawkish ECB tilt on Thursday, tease far more concrete developments for traders.
Meanwhile the relief rally in BTPs continues, with the spread against bunds continuing to tighten from blow-out levels seen previously. European equity markets initially open higher before fading back to flat, mining stocks underperform; defensive sectors such as utilities support. Crude and metals markets also relatively flat
Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index opened higher, but pared its advance after modest gains for many Asian gauges failed to ignite the MSCI Asia Pacific Index, with mining stocks underperforming. S&P 500 futures were flat after posting another increase on Monday. Safe-haven assets including the yen and gold slipped in the aftermath of the Singapore agreement.
The pound reversed a decline before Theresa May’s landmark Brexit legislation goes to Parliament, after data showed a surprise moderation in the pace of wage growth.
As a reminder, today the UK faces a historic vote on Brexit, with PM May reportedly heading off a Conservative rebellion ahead of today’s key Brexit vote by reaching out to Remainers in her party according to the Telegraph. Furthermore, UK Brexit Secretary Davis is said to back deal to buy-off Tory rebels on both wings of the party ahead of the EU Withdrawal Bill vote in the UK’s lower house. UK solicitor general Baker that the government is discussing with lawmakers the replacement of an Upper House amendment on EU’s customs union and that it is appropriate to have a customs arrangement with the EU. UK Conservative MP Grieve said to have tabled a compromise amendment on the Brexit deal and would likely rebel if it is rejected. However, UK government sources indicated that they have no intention of backing MP Grieve’s amendment to try to buy off rebels over the meaningful vote. In other words, look for more sterling drama in just a few hours.
Ahead of the Fed announcement tomorrow, today we will get a critical CPI print: the consensus today is for a +0.2% mom core and headline print. The former is also expected to nudge up one-tenth to +2.2% yoy. That +0.2% monthly consensus estimate should be fairly familiar as this is now the 32nd consecutive month that we’ve had such a forecast on the street. For those wondering, only 17 of them have proven to be correct with most missing on the downside. Deutsche economists expect the core to come in at +0.2% as they anticipate some payback from unusual weakness last month in categories such as airfares as well as new and used vehicles. In fact, the German bank expects the annual rate to rise to +2.3% yoy which would be the highest since January 2017. All that to look forward to later.
Putting the Korean drama in the rearview mirror, the dollar was little changed as investors turned their attention toward today’s CPI report and this week’s central bank policy meetings after the deal signed by the U.S. and North Korea was seen as a “sideshow” given the lack of specific commitments. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index erased an earlier advance to be steady on the day; Treasury 10-year yields held the gains from the previous two sessions and was at 2.96%
The yen drifted lower against all its Group-of-10 peers as the agreement still was seen as easing global tensions and reducing demand for haven assets. Norway’s krone rallied to a seven-month high against the euro after a survey by the central bank suggested growth outlook remains intact, strengthening the case for a rate hike after the summer
In other geopolitical news, the Russian deputy foreign minister says the nation will retaliate to the latest US sanctions.
In commodities, oil was unable to hold onto initial gains resulting from softer USD coming from the historic US-North Korean summit. WTI currently trading above the USD 66.00 handle, and Brent trading above the USD 76.00 level, with the fossil fuel flat on the day. In the metals scope, Gold is also seeing some follow through from an improved risk tone, with the yellow metal down 0.2% on the day. Steel is positive after two sessions in the red as price increases in large Chinese firms has offered support to the metal. Copper has shed losses earlier in the day and is now up on the day as the metal is benefiting from the improved risk tone.
A handful of companies are set to report earnings, including Oxford Industries and John Wiley. On the macro side, data is expected on NFIB Small Business Optimism and on CPI.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures down 0.04% to 2,782.00
- STOXX Europe 600 up 0.03% to 388.05
- MXAP up 0.07% to 175.18
- MXAPJ up 0.1% to 574.11
- Nikkei up 0.3% to 22,878.35
- Topix up 0.3% to 1,792.82
- Hang Seng Index up 0.1% to 31,103.06
- Shanghai Composite up 0.9% to 3,079.80
- Sensex up 0.6% to 35,679.14
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 6,054.44
- Kospi down 0.05% to 2,468.83
- German 10Y yield rose 2.0 bps to 0.513%
- Euro up 0.2% to $1.1802
- Italian 10Y yield fell 28.9 bps to 2.569%
- Spanish 10Y yield rose 2.2 bps to 1.463%
- Brent Futures up 0.5% to $76.84/bbl
- Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,298.00
- U.S. Dollar Index down 0.1% to 93.50
Top Headline News from Bloomberg
- President Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un expressed optimism that the U.S. and North Korea could find a path toward peace, opening a highly anticipated summit between two adversaries that only last year had seemed on the brink of nuclear war
- The Fed will likely deliver an expected interest-rate increase on Wednesday but still has plenty of topics to dissect — from a falling unemployment rate to emerging-market pain
- Italian Finance Minister Giovanni Tria’s expression of commitment to the euro are “far-sighted and create confidence,” European Union Budget Commissioner Guenther Oettinger said
- German investor confidence tumbled to its lowest level since 2012 as U.S. trade tariffs and Italy’s political turmoil added to concerns that the economy is slowing. German Jun. ZEW Expectations: -16.1 vs -14.0 est; Current Situation 80.6 vs 85.0 est.
- The U.K. economy continued to create jobs faster than forecast, even though basic wage growth unexpectedly slowed. U.K. Apr. Average Weekly Earnings ex-bonus 2.8% vs 2.9% est; Unemployment Rate 4.2% vs 4.2%; Employment Change 146k vs 120k est.
- Brexit: vote today on whether Parliament can direct Brexit negotiations if final deal is rejected by MPs; pro-remain govt. rebels have put forward compromise amendment vs govt’s own compromise agreement; one govt minister resigns to join rebels
- IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said the risks to the global economy are rising as major industrial nations sharpen threats of a trade war
- Bond traders have their work cut out for them before they get to the pivotal event for U.S. financial markets this week — Wednesday’s announcement from the Federal Reserve. The Treasury is about to pack $193 billion of debt sales into the next two days. That potentially puts the onus on Wall Street to absorb the deluge if investors are reluctant to choke it down before the central bank’s decision
- Theresa May’s govt is in advanced talks to head off a rebellion by pro-European members of her Conservative Party, edging toward a deal on Brexit that could hold her divided party together through a week of perilous voting
- Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said he won’t accept the return of a hard border on the island of Ireland after Brexit even if Britain crashes out of the European Union without a deal on its future relationship with the bloc
- Oil held gains near $66 a barrel as a divide between OPEC and allies deepened over whether to ease production curbs and sell more crude into global markets
- President Donald Trump’s top economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, was “doing well” on Monday night after suffering a “very mild heart attack,” a White House spokeswoman said
- U.K. Justice Minister Phillip Lee resigns and says he will vote with rebels on an amendment that would give Parliament the power to direct negotiations if lawmakers reject May’s Brexit deal
Asian equity markets mostly traded with modest gains following a similar performance on Wall St. and with focus fully centred on the historical summit between US President Trump and North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un. The meeting between the 2 leaders was seen as amicable in which the leaders shook hands several times and exchanged pleasantries, although the initial face-to-face was somewhat less awe-inspiring than that of the inter-Korean summit in April. In addition, after one-on-one discussions Trump suggested a ‘very very good, good relationship’ and Kim stated there will be challenges ahead but will work with US President Trump, although reports also noted that Kim refrained from answering questions on denuclearisation. ASX 200 (+0.2%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.3%) were positive with early outperformance seen in Japan amid a weaker currency, although some of the gains were pared due to pessimism that a swift agreement could be reached for the Korean peninsula. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+0.1%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.9%) have swung between gains and losses alongside a broad tentative tone across the region and after a tepid liquidity effort by the PBoC. Finally, 10yr JGBs were subdued amid a lack of conviction in the region and with an enhanced liquidity auction for longer-dated bonds largely ignored, which showed slight decline in the bid to cover and tighter accepted spreads.
Top Asian News
- TV Maker Blames India’s Modi, Court and Brazil for Bad Debt Pile
European bourses are mixed (Euro Stoxx 50 -0.2%) after failing to hold onto initial gains spurred on by an improved risk sentiment in the wake of the Trump-Kim summit. The underperforming bourse is currently the FTSE (-0.2%) as a stronger GBP is pressuring the index amid reports that UK PM May has struck a compromise with Conservative rebels. Carrefour (+2.5%) is up on the news that Google will begin to sell their products online in France through their platforms. This is offering support to the consumer staples sector, which is the current sector outperformer (+0.44%) Casino (+6%) is leading the gains in Europe after the co. announced an asset sale plan in order to reduce debt. Daimler has recalled 238,000 vehicles in Germany due to illegal emission device concerns; a total of 774,000 vehicles are affected in Europe.
Top European News
- U.K. Employment Rises More Than Forecast But Wage Growth Slows
- Euro Mauled by Political Risk Is Ready to Be Revived by Draghi
- May Seeks to Head off Rebellion With Hours To Go: Brexit Update
- ABB CEO Says U.S. Tariffs Put Jobs at Risk: FT
In currencies, the DXY index and Usd in general has drifted back from peaks seen in wake of the Trump-Kim meeting that climaxed in an historic signing of significant documents to herald a new dawn and more concerted pledge to work towards peace via denuclearisation. The DXY remains supported around 93.500, but off highs just shy of 93.900 as attention shifts to US CPI ahead of the Fed. GBP – A marginal outperformer going in to the latest UK labour/wage data, which was somewhat mixed in the event, and only prompted a knee-jerk retreat in the Pound as the spotlight switches back to the Brexit vote amid reports that PM May has quelled a faction of Tory rebels. Cable currently holding close to 1.3400 and Eur/Gbp pivoting 0.8800 even though the single currency is firmer overall. NZD/CHF/EUR/AUD – All modestly firmer vs the Greenback with the Kiwi consolidating above 0.7000 and Franc still rangebound either side of 0.9850, while Eur/Usd is retesting offers and resistance at 1.1800 just above its 100 HMA (1.1786) and a band of option expiries from 1.1775-90 in 1.5 bn. Note, disappointing ZEW sentiment indicators sapped some of the single currency’s pre- ECB momentum. Aud/Usd has recovered 0.7600+ status after a dip on mixed Aussie data overnight (housing loans not as weak as forecast, but business sentiment and conditions both declined). JPY/CAD – The G10 laggards once again, with Usd/Jpy up through its 200 DMA (110.21) to test offers at 110.50 and Eur/Jpy absorbing residual supply at 130.00 to trip some 130.25 stops in wake of the Summit, while the Loonie is still smarting from the G7 squabble between Trump and Trudeau and just holding off 1.3000+ lows vs its US rival.
In commodities, oil was unable to hold onto initial gains resulting from softer USD coming from the historic US-North Korean summit. WTI currently trading above the USD 66.00 handle, and Brent trading above the USD 76.00 level, with the fossil fuel flat on the day. In the metals scope, Gold is also seeing some follow through from an improved risk tone, with the yellow metal down 0.2% on the day. Steel is positive after two sessions in the red as price increases in large Chinese firms has offered support to the metal. Copper has shed losses earlier in the day and is now up on the day as the metal is benefiting from the improved risk tone.
Looking at the day ahead, the big highlight in terms of data comes with the May CPI report. The May NFIB small business optimism reading and May monthly budget statement will also be out in the US. Prior to this in Europe we’ll get the June ZEW survey in Germany and April/May employment data in the UK including average weekly earnings. Meanwhile, UK Parliament is due to hold a 12-hour session on Brexit legislation with various amendments due.
US Event Calendar
- 6am: NFIB Small Business Optimism, est. 105, prior 104.8
- 8:30am: US CPI MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%; CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.1%
- US CPI YoY, est. 2.8%, prior 2.5%; US CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 2.2%, prior 2.1%
- 8:30am: Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY, prior 0.42%; Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY, prior 0.2%
- 2pm: Monthly Budget Statement, est. $139.5b deficit, prior $214.3b
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
In the decades and centuries to come, will this date go down in history as a big turning point for the history of mankind, a date future generations can celebrate, a new beginning, and a day used to remember that one person can really make a big difference. Yes 44 years ago today I was born. On the more mundane subject of whether world peace gets a step closer today, President Trump and Kim Jong Un’s mission to Singapore seems to be off to a positive start, with Trump noting he had forged a “good relationship” with Kim, while Kim indicated “there will be challenges ahead” but he vowed to work with Trump. As we go to print Trump has declared that the meeting with Kim is “going great ”. We shall find out more at President Trump’s news conference at 4pm local time (9am London time).
Notably, Kim is scheduled to head back home at 2pm today. Meanwhile, earlier yesterday Secretary of State Pompeo reaffirmed that complete and irreversible denuclearisation is the “only outcome that the US will accept”, but unnamed US officials have told Bloomberg that Trump was willing to offer “unique guarantees” to North Korea to consummate a potential deal.
This morning in Asia, markets are trading modestly higher with the Nikkei (+0.42%), Hang Seng (+0.28%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.46%) all up while the Kospi is broadly flat. Datawise, Japan’s May PPI print was well above consensus at 0.6% mom (vs. 0.2% expected) and 2.7% yoy will be out this afternoon and along with tomorrow’s PPI are the last big data prints that the Fed will have before their meeting. The consensus today is for a +0.2% mom core and headline print. The former is also expected to nudge up one-tenth to +2.2% yoy. That +0.2% monthly consensus estimate should be fairly familiar as this is now the 32nd consecutive month that we’ve had such a forecast on the street. For those wondering, only 17 of them have proven to be correct with most missing on the downside. Our US economists also expect the core to come in at +0.2% as they anticipate some payback from unusual weakness last month in categories such as airfares as well as new and used vehicles. Our colleagues actually expect the annual rate to rise to +2.3% yoy which would be the highest since January 2017. All that to look forward to later.
Also today and tomorrow we have the important parliamentary Brexit votes in the House of Commons. As DB Oli Harvey pointed out yesterday there are three important amendments to look out for. The first, amendment 4, requires the UK government to keep the UK in a customs union with the EU. The government could lose this vote, but as it is quite vaguely drafted, it’s not widely expected that this would prove fatal to May’s Brexit strategy. The second, amendment 7, requires the UK to remain in the EEA. A defeat here would be significant, but the government is less likely to lose as it’s not official Labour Party policy. The third, amendment 49, is probably the most important. This amendment gives more powers to Parliament over the final Brexit outcome. Most importantly, if Parliament rejects the government’s final deal (which it has to put before the Commons by 30th November), Parliament can effectively take over the Brexit negotiations. In these circumstances, the baseline is likely to be that the UK goes straight to a very soft Brexit due to the make-up of MPs being very pro remain. From a market perspective, a government defeat on amendment 49 could therefore either be very bullish or very messy. On the former, if the government loses the amendment and May continues, the tail risk of a hard Brexit would be substantially removed (if Parliament didn’t like the deal, it could instruct the government to go straight to EEA membership). On the latter, by losing the vote, hard Brexit MPs could trigger a vote of no confidence in May. If this was the case, the question is how much of the support of the Conservative Party May would lose. If only 30-odd MPs voted against her, she is likely to survive and be in a stronger position. If it was more like 80, May could resign and things could get very messy. The bottom line is that amendment 49 is the one to look out for. Baseline would be that government offers more concessions today and wins the vote. But if the outcome was more uncertain, the crucial vote is likely to occur on either Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning/lunchtime, based on the parliamentary schedule as it stands. Thanks again to Oli for guidance on the above.
Now recapping other markets performance from yesterday. The focus was on Italian risk assets which rallied after the country’s new Finance Minister noted the coalition was committed to remaining in the Eurozone and wanted to boost growth through structural reforms. The FTSE MIB jumped +3.42% while the banks index posted its biggest one-day gain in 13 months as Intesa (+6.6%) and Unicredit (+6.2%) both rallied. Meanwhile, the yields on 2y and 10y BTPs dropped 61.8bp and 28.9bp respectively, with the former now down to 1.02% vs. its recent peak of 2.64%. The risk on sentiment also lifted the Stoxx 600 (+0.73%) and credit markets (EU Main -3.3bp; iTraxx sub-Financial -13.9bp). Across the pond, the S&P pared back earlier gains to close marginally higher (+0.11%) as utilities and financials stocks.
Elsewhere core European government bonds weakened modestly with the yields on Bunds (+4.5bp) and Gilts (+1.6bp) both higher, while UST 10y were little changed (+0.6bp) after the Treasury Department successfully sold $54bln of 3y and 10y notes with solid investor demand. In FX, the US dollar index and Euro both firmed c0.1% while Sterling weakened -0.19% following softer than expected IP and manufacturing production prints. In commodities, WTI oil rose 0.55% to $66.10/bbl, in part as the Iraqi oil Minister al-Luaibi noted his disagreement with Saudi Arabia’s proposal to unwind oil output caps, while a key pipeline crack was thought to risk oil exports from Nigeria.
Away from the markets and onto some trade rhetoric, President Trump has fired off tweets to his G7 allies yesterday, noting that “fair trade is now to be called fool trade if it’s not reciprocal” and that “sorry, we cannot let our friends, or enemies, take advantage of us on trade anymore”. Meanwhile, IMF Managing Director Ms Lagarde has warned “the clouds on the horizon that we have signalled about six months ago are getting darker by the day” and that “the biggest and darkest cloud” over the global economy is the risk of deterioration of confidence “by attempts to challenge the way in which trade has been conducted….” Meanwhile, a spokesman for Germany’s Ms Merkel noted that EU retaliatory tariffs against the US are ready and can take effect from 1 July, but Germany remains ready to resolve the trade tensions via dialogue.
Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the UK, both the April IP and manufacturing production were below consensus, at -0.8% mom (vs. 0.1% expected) and -1.4% mom (vs. 0.3% expected) respectively. The latter represents the largest monthly decline since October 2012. DB’s Harvey noted that manufacturing is a relatively small part of the UK economy (10%) and so stronger demand in services could offset this, but does show that domestic demand needs to pick-up as the windfall from a strong external environment is fading. Elsewhere, the UK’s April trade deficit widened more than expected at -£5.3bln (vs. -£2.5bln expected), with exports down -3.2% mom. Over in France, the May Bank of France industrial sentiment index edged down 2pts mom to 100 (vs. 102 expected), which is the lowest reading since October 2016. Meanwhile, Italy’s April IP also fell more than expected to -1.2% mom (vs. -0.5% expected), slowing annual growth to 1.9% yoy.
Looking at the day ahead, the big highlight in terms of data comes in the afternoon in the US with the May CPI report. The May NFIB small business optimism reading and May monthly budget statement will also be out in the US. Prior to this in Europe we’ll get the June ZEW survey in Germany and April/May employment data in the UK including average weekly earnings. Meanwhile, UK Parliament is due to hold a 12-hour session on Brexit legislation with various amendments due.
3. ASIAN AFFAIRS
i)TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed UP 27.02 points or 0.89% /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 39.36 points or 0.13% / The Nikkei closed UP 74.31 POINTS OR 0.33% /Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .13% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.4043/Oil UP to 66.02 dollars per barrel for WTI and 76.08 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED//. ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.4043 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.4005/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING MUCH STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING MUCH WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE A FULL TRADE WAR IS BEGINNING/
3 a NORTH KOREA/USA
North Korea/South Korea/usa
The following is the first of many summits, but it seems that Kim is committed to denuclearizaiton
(courtesy zerohedge)
3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS
end
c) REPORT ON CHINA/HONG KONG
Despite his success in North Korea, this morning, China redeploys missiles on the contested South China Sea island of Woody Island part of the Parcel islands
(courtesy zero hedge)
Despite US Threats, China Redeploys Missiles On Contested South China Sea Island
China has taken credit for pushing North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to agree to this week’s historic peace summit with the US, where the two sides will discuss terms for the possible removal of all nuclear weapons from the Korean peninsula. But as the world’s second-largest economy touts its efforts to ensure peace with the US, the simmering tensions in the Pacific, where the US military has repeatedly clashed with China’s navy and air force over China’s continued development of islands in the South China Sea – something China claims is essential for its national security.
And in the latest provocation, the South China Morning Post reported Monday that China has redeployed a series of missiles that it had removed last week from the disputed Woody Island, part of the Yongxing islands in the Paracels. An Israeli intelligence firm called ImageSat International captured satellite images purportedly showing the removal, and then redeployment, of the surface-to-air missiles sattioned on the Island by the Chinese military, according to the South China Morning Post. The missiles were returned to “exactly the same positions they were,” an indication that China didn’t even bother to hide its latest provocative act.
The first batch of photos, taken June 3, showed what appeared to be HQ-9 missiles being removed. The removal came as tensions flared between China and the US, with the US flying two nuclear-capable B-52 bombers over the Spratly Islands.
The Pentagon is also reportedly considering whether it should send more warships to the Taiwan Strait to step up security of island, which, according to the US one-China policy, is viewed as part of China. The US is also reportedly trying to rally its allies to increase their own military presence in the area – these allies include Britain and France.
Of course, the fact that the missiles were restored isn’t exactly a surprise: China had said it would restore the missiles. “On the other hand, it may be a regular practice,” ISI said. “If so, within the next few days we may observe a redeployment in the same area.”
The news comes after China defied the US back in April by installing a radar scrambler on the Spratly Islands meant to sabotage the US “freeops” – or Freedom of Navigation missions – that were being ordered with increasing frequency by the Pentagon. About a month ago, the US threatened China with “consequences” if it didn’t remove missiles from the South China Sea (and now we all know how that turned out).
Top US Navy officials are beginning to view China with increasing skepticism, with Trump’s Ambassador to Australia – a former Navy admiral – warning that we must prepare for the possibility of all-out war with China within our lifetimes.
Even as China expanded its strategy of denying US military access to the South China Sea, the US continued to support its top economic rival, something that Bloomberg cited as one of the greatest “paradoxes” of US foreign policy in the 21st century.
This is just one of the many paradoxes of the U.S.-China relationship. Washington has underwritten the economic rise of its greatest long-term strategic rival by protecting the global commercial flows that have made that rival so wealthy. China, for its part, has been a free-rider on America’s provision of global stability even while challenging the U.S. ever more sharply in the Asia-Pacific.
This situation could not last forever, though, because it represented a vulnerability that a rising China would not tolerate indefinitely. After all, if the U.S. can secure the global commons, then it can also dominate and even restrict access to them if it so chooses.
And so, as the US-China relationship has become more contentious – particularly after the International Criminal Court ruled in favor of the Philippines, a direct repudiation of China’s territorial claims over the region. In response, China unveiled its “magical” island-building ship, which, as we pointed out late last year, it’s using to reconstruct islands in its new Pacific dominion. Measuring 140 meters, the Tiankun is the biggest dredger in Asia, with cutters and pumps capable of smashing the equivalent of three Olympic pools of rock an hour from the sea floor and shooting it up to 15 kilometers away to create artificial land. Since earlier this spring, Chinaand Taiwan have traded provocations by holding back-to-back live-fire military drills. Last week, Taiwan carried out the Han Kuang war drills. Even though the live-fire military drill began with the deadly crash of a General Dynamics F-16 Fighting Falcon jet on the first day, the exercise continued across the island as scheduled throughout the week.
This is just one of the many paradoxes of the U.S.-China relationship. Washington has underwritten the economic rise of its greatest long-term strategic rival by protecting the global commercial flows that have made that rival so wealthy. China, for its part, has been a free-rider on America’s provision of global stability even while challenging the U.S. ever more sharply in the Asia-Pacific.
This situation could not last forever, though, because it represented a vulnerability that a rising China would not tolerate indefinitely. After all, if the U.S. can secure the global commons, then it can also dominate and even restrict access to them if it so chooses.
For years, most experts believed that China’s military challenge to the U.S. was regional in nature — that it was confined to the Western Pacific. After decades of tacitly free-riding on America’s global power-projection capabilities, however, Beijing now is seeking the capabilities that will allow it to project its own military power well outside its regional neighborhood.
The fact that China is building up its military strength is hardly news, of course. The 1995-96 Taiwan crisis, during which the U.S. responded to Chinese intimidation of Taiwan by sending two carrier strike groups to the area, underscored to the Chinese leadership that America’s military dominance gave it the capability to intervene at will even in China’s own backyard.
Since then, Beijing has been developing the capabilities — advanced fighter jets, anti-ship ballistic missiles, and stealthy diesel-electric attack submarines among them — meant not just to give it leverage over its East and Southeast Asian neighbors, but also to prevent the U.S. from intervening effectively in their defense.
This effort to build what are known as “anti-access/area-denial” capabilities has borne fruit, and the U.S. will now face high and continually growing obstacles to defending Taiwan or other partners and allies in the event of conflict with China.
Meanwhile, following years of rapid economic growth, China has been stepping up its defense spending, leaving it with the second-largest defense budget in the world.
Given all of this, one can’t help but wonder whether the burgeoning trade war between the US and China really might devolve into a military conflict, just as famous investors like David Tepper have publicly speculated about.
end
the Senate adds a ZTE killing deal amendment to its defense bill..that which will no doubt anger China
(courtesy zerohedge)
Senate Adds ZTE-Deal-Killing Amendment To “Must Pass” Defense Bill
As was widely expected, a group of senators have successfully attached an amendment that would effectively kill the Trump administration’s deal with Chinese telecoms firm ZTE to a “must-pass” defense authorization bill, according to Axios– the latest sign that the movement to kill the deal is gaining momentum, even among Republicans who rarely oppose the president. The measure has found support among a bipartisan group of Senators who claim that the ZTE deal poses potential national security problems, according to Democratic Sen. Chris Van Hollen, who introduced the amendment alongside Republican Sen. Tom Cotton. In addition, Van Hollen maintains that the ZTE deal is “genuinely a bad deal” that must be overturned.
The amendment to kill the deal, which was first unveiled last Thursday shortly after Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross announced the administration had worked out a deal to save ZTE, would reimpose the White House’s original ban on ZTE buying components from US firms (what some have described as a “death sentence” for the company). Still, the bill as amendment has a long way to go to make it out of the Senate, let alone the House, where it will likely face more intense opposition.
The White House announced the initial ban on ZTE buying parts from US firms in April, after the company was found to have violated a settlement originally imposed over ZTE’s sales to Iran in defiance of US sanctions. As part of the original settlement, ZTE had agreed to fire certain senior managers and withhold bonuses from others. But the company didn’t follow through with either promise.
Van Hollen told Axios that the administration has resisted Congress’s push to make the ZTE penalty permanent almost since the beginning. After discovering that Van Hollen and others were planning a bill to make ZTE’s punishment permanent, the administration “wanted to flout Congress’s intent and decided to put its foot down on the accelerator” and announced its deal before the original amendment could be brought to a vote. President Trump first declared his intention to help save ZTE late last month with a tweet about “too many jobs in China lost.” Still, since Trump’s inauguration, only a handful of Republicans have voted against his agenda.
But lawmakers aren’t the only ones who are skeptical of ZTE. For years, defense officials have accused the telecoms giant and other Chinese firms of manufacturing equipment that could be used to spy on Americans, according to the Wall Street Journal.
“China is using its telecommunications companies as means to conduct espionage,” said Sen. John Cornyn (R., Texas). “We need to solve the larger puzzle of trade and national security in addition to the enforcement action for the violation of sanctions.”
Meanwhile, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross insisted the Trump administration’s treatment of ZTE isn’t part of a broader quid pro quo meant to achieve a better trade deal with China. Instead, Trump and his allies have insisted it was a gesture of goodwill to thank China for helping organize the Singapore summit with North Korea. Peter Navarro, a White House trade advisor, described the ZTE deal as a tough deal that would allow the company a last chance – but not without substantial cost.
“The president did this as a personal favor to the president of China as a way of showing some goodwill for bigger efforts, such as the one here in Singapore,” Mr. Navarro said on Fox News Sunday. “But it will be three strikes you’re out for ZTE. And everybody understands that within this administration. So they’re on notice.”
Per terms of the settlement, ZTE would pay a penalty of $1.3 billion (plus place another $400 million in escrow to be seized should the company again fail to hold up its end of the bargain). The company would also be forced to accept – and pay for – a team of compliance officers that will be led by a “special independent compliance coordinator” who will report jointly to ZTE’s CEO, its board and the Commerce Department. The company will be forced to pay for the monitors for ten years. The company will also be required replace its entire board of directors and senior leadership team. In exchange, ZTE will resume buying products from US firms.
But if the measure does pass, we imagine it will set back the behind-the-scenes trade negotiations with China, despite Ross’s insistence that the ZTE deal was “quite separate” from all that. Meanwhile, ZTE shares are set to begin trading in Hong Kong on Wednesday after a nearly two-month suspension, according to WSJ.
end
4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
ITALY/SPAIN
A stranded migrant ship which was originally headed for Italy, has run out of food as an Italian rescue vessel takes the refugees to Spain
(courtesy zerohedge)
Stranded Migrant Ship Runs Out Of Food In
Mediterranean; Italian Rescue Vessel To Take
Refugees To Spain
Hours after refusing Spain’s offer to dock, an NGO carrying 629 shipwrecked North African migrants says that Italy has finally agreed to address the refugees stuck in the Mediterranean amid a dire food situation and bad weather preventing them from diverting to Spain – according to a Tuesday tweet by the group SOS Mediterranee. Italian authorities will transfer the migrants aboard a search and rescue vessel and take them to Valencia, reads the tweet.
The NGO’s ship MV Aquarius has been involved in a multi-day standoff with Italy after the country’s new Interior Minister, Matteo Salvini, took the unprecedented decision to close Italy’s ports to refugees after years of unchecked migration – warning that “the good times for illegals are over.”
Looks like all migrants have to do is wait off Italy’s coast until they run out of supplies.
On Monday, Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez offered the stranded vessel safe harbor, however the Aquarius refused – with the noting over Twitter that the trip across the Mediterranean would take “several days of sailing,” and that “With so many people on board and weather conditions worsening the situation can become critical.”
The group also said they had run out of food, tweeting “the stocks will be enough for just another meal tomorrow.”
“The ship is stationary waiting to receive instructions from the competent maritime authorities,” the group said, demanding that “The Italian maritime authorities must quickly find a solution for the safety of the 629 shipwrecked people.”
Earlier Monday, the Aquarius received 950 water bottles and food (pasta and snacks) from a Maltese Navy vessel.
As we reported previously, the Aquarius took the migrants, including 123 unaccompanied minors, 11 other children and seven pregnant women, toward Italy, but the country’s shadow leader, Salvini, barred it from docking and said it should go to Malta.
And while Malta refused and Spain accepted, the migrants will continue on to Italy – safe and sound. All they had to do was wait!
UK
REBELLION IN THE UK MAY GOVERNMENT AHEAD OF A CRITICAL “BREXIT” AMENDMENT VOTE
(courtesy zerohedge)
May-Day: UK PM Faces Rebellion Ahead Of Critical ‘Brexit’ Amendment Vote
For months, headlines have crowed of failed parliamentary vote after failed parliamentary vote (most notably by The House of Lords) as (some members of) Theresa May’s government attempt to navigate the path towards Brexit (that her nation democratically voted for).
While each had vote had its own impact,today’s so-called “meaningful vote” amendment (once again inserted by an obstructionist House of Lords) is critical to the future of Brexit– and also to May’s future – as she faces a rebellion among her own lawmakers ahead of avote that could hand Parliament the power to direct negotiations if lawmakers don’t like the divorce deal that May brings back from Brussels.
As Bloomberg reports, May hates this clause because she says it would tie her hands in negotiations.
Brexit backers hate it because they see it as a tool to thwart the divorce. If the amendment is accepted, it would be another reason for Brexiters to want to replace May with one of their own.
For pro-EU rebels, the stake are high. While the customs issue will come again, they might not get another chance to secure themselves a meaningful vote on the final divorce deal that May expects to secure later this year. The government wants lawmakers to be faced with the choice of this deal or no deal – something pro-EU rebels see as no choice at all. They want to be able to send May back to the negotiating table if they don’t like it.
Ahead of the vote, various rebellions have arisen inside her own party, most of which she has dodged, but as lawmakers debate the amendment, it is clear that the vote will be a knife-edge split with just two weeks until the EU summit.
As The Telegraph reports, four more ministers are prepared to quit over Brexit after Phillip Lee’s “warning shot” resignation.
A source close to Dr Lee said his resignation is meant to “send a signal to the whips and the Prime Minister”.
It is understood four more junior ministers have been talking privately with Dr Lee and each other about quitting, and that his resignation is designed to “show they are serious”.
“We can’t let the bullies continue to run our party,” the source said, highlighting the Government’s resistance to giving Parliament a meaningful vote on the final deal. “They have torn the party apart for years, and they still are.”
Asked if the other four resignations could come today, the source said: “I would be surprised. Philip is the warning shot.”
The ministers are concerned about the EU Withdrawal Bill passing the meaningful vote. “This is an unsafe piece of legislation for our country,” the source said.
As a reminder, May bought off pro-European rebels on what would have been a largely symbolic vote on whether the U.K. should remain in a customs union with the European Union after Brexit. With a vaguely worded fudge that the whole party can get behind, that fight has been postponed until another showdown next month.
But today’s vote – and the political infighting that appears to be tearing May’s party apart – will be a game-changer and May knows it as she urged her lawmakers to think about the message they were sending to the EU and begged them not to tie her hands in negotiations.
Robert Buckland, the Remain-supporting solicitor-general, was more succinct as he stood alongside euroskeptic Brexit Minister Steve Baker:
“There is ongoing work happening. It’s emblematic of a real sense of common purpose in the party that we all hang together or we all hang separately.”
Moreover, some members of parliament have had death threats ahead of the vote.
“To my knowledge at least one honourable member on these benches will today and tomorrow not vote in accordance with their conscience because of threats to their personal safety, to members of their Parliamentary staff and members of their family,”
Leader of the House of Commons Andrea Leadsom, who campaigned for Brexit, replied that such threats are “utterly unacceptable” and “the Government will absolutely uphold the right of every member to do as they believe is the right thing to do.”
The vote is due to occur between 3pm and 4pm London Time (10am – 11am ET) and for now Cable cannot make its mind up…
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
The uSA backed Syrian Kurds agree to unconditional talks with Assad after the USA and Turkey agree to patrol the northern part of Syria after an agreement by the Kurds to pull out of Manbij. No doubt that the Kurds will also deal with the Russians and eventually both Turkey and the USA will pull out of Syria having lost out to the Russians
(courtesy zerohedge)
US-Backed Kurds Agree To “Unconditional Talks” With Syrian Government After Pentagon-Turkey Deal
We’ve long predicted that the US-backed Syrian Kurdish forces currently holding a vast chunk of land in Syria’s northeast with the help of American coalition air power will naturally drift toward striking a deal with Assad, as the two sides have throughout the war exercised some degree of quiet cooperation against ISIS, foreign jihadists, and Turkish expansionism.
In a huge weekend development which has gone largely unnoticed by mainstream media, the political wing of the US-trained and supported Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) announced it is open to entering into unprecedented direct negotiations with the Assad government over the future of the country.

The Syrian Democratic Council, or SDC, is the political arm of the powerful alliance of mostly Kurdish and Arab fighters that make up the SDF, and on Sunday declared willingness to enter into “unconditional talks” with the Syrian government.
The London based international Arabic newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat reports the following:
In a statement on Sunday, the SDC said it was committed to resolving Syria’s deadly conflict through dialogue, and would not “hesitate to agree to unconditional talks”.
“It is positive to see comments about a summit for Syrians, to pave the way to start a new page,” it said.
Leading SDC member Hekmat Habib told AFP that both the council and the SDF “are serious about opening the door to dialogue” with the regime.
“With the SDF’s control of 30 percent of Syria, and the regime’s control of swathes of the country, these are the only two forces who can sit at the negotiating table and formulate a solution to the Syrian crisis,” he said.
As Syria analyst Joshua Landis confirms, the surprise SDC announcement comesjust days after a controversial deal reached between Turkey and the US for the withdrawal of Syrian Kurdish forces from Manbij.
Syrian Kurdish leaders were enraged by the agreement, announced over the weekend, which allows for US and Turkish forces to patrol the northern Syrian city — though the Syrian Kurdish SDF wrested the city from ISIS in a major 2016 offensive. Turkey has consistently demanded Kurdish withdrawal from Manbij after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan invaded northern Syria in his non-ironically named ‘Operation Olive Branch’ early this year, aimed primarily at annexing Afrin canton.
Increasingly, America’s incoherent policy regarding the Kurds and Syria more broadly has put the more than 2000 US troops occupying northeast Kurdish heavy regions of the country in the middle of a Kurdish-Turkey-Damascus final showdown for the future of Syria.
As we remarked after Mattis’ weekend comments stating his desire to keep troops in Syria, Syria looks to be going the way of other major US wars: an open-ended situation short of success in which officials simultaneously are unable to come up with a plan to “win,” but will resist any pullout so they never completely lose.
Both the Syrian government and Syrian Kurdish forces understand this well, and know that Syrians alone are the lasting stakeholders in the country — something increasingly obvious as the US appears to be handing over sovereign Syrian territory over to expansionist NATO ally Turkey.
A Syrian Kurdish SDC official further stated of weekend developments, “We are looking forward, in the next phase, to the departure of all military forces from Syria and the return to Syrian-Syrian dialogue” — in a reference to both Turkish and US occupying forces.
We predicted this almost year a year ago in our analysis of Pentagon goals in northern Syria as it became clearer that Assad and Russia were emerging victorious in the 6-year proxy war:
Though the US endgame continues to be the ultimate million dollar question in all of this, it appears at least for now that this endgame has something to do with the Pentagon forcing itself into a place of affecting the Syrian war’s outcome and final apportionment of power: the best case scenario for American power in the region being permanent US bases under a Syrian Kurdish federated zone with favored access to Syrian oil doled out by Kurdish partners, and we could now be witnessing the early phases of such negotiations.
But if indeed the Kurds are cutting separate deals with Russia, a US exit from Syria could be forced sooner rather than later.
Notably, in a wide-ranging interview with RT News last month, President Assad issued an ultimatum to Syrian Kurdish militias backed by the US: “We’re going to deal with it by two options: the first one we started now opening doors for negotiations, because the majority of them [SDF] are Syrians. Supposedly they like their country, they don’t like to be puppets to any foreigners,” Assad said.
“If not, we’re going to resort … to liberating those areas by force. It’s our land, it’s our right, and it’s our duty to liberate it, and the Americans should leave. Somehow they’re going to leave,” Assad added while speaking to RT.
While it appears the Pentagon is now (predictably) selling out the Kurds to Turkey, Assad has consistently taken a pragmatic approach in dealing with the US-backed SDF, reminding them that no foreign supporters could possibly have Syrian best interests in mind: “either you have a country or you don’t have a country” he said in the RT interview of the foreign invasion of Syrian soil over the past years of war.
Should SDC-SDF and Syrian government negotiations come to full fruition, this could mark lasting peace and the final exit of foreign forces, American troops foremost among them.
6 .GLOBAL ISSUES
SAUDI ARABIA
oil production jumps considerably in June despite a good drop in oil demand according to a statement by OPEC
(courtesy zerohedge)
Saudi Oil Production Jumps In June Despite Drop In Oil Demand: OPEC
It will probably not come as a surprise that at a time when both Trump, and Saudi Arabia, are pressing OPEC to reverse the 1.5 year long OPEC agreement and pump more oil so US gasoline prices dont soar in the summer months, that according to the just released monthly report from the cartel, total OPEC production rose by 35.4kb/d to 31.869mmb/d mostly thanks to Saudi output rising by 85.5kb/d (according to secondary) sources to 9.987mmb/d and up a whopping 161.4kb/d as per direct communication, and back over 10 million barrels.
Joining Saudi Arabia in producing more oil in June were Algeria & Iraq, while production again declined in Venezuela, with Libya and Nigeria also seeing a decline in output.
Commenting on the state of the market, OPEC noted that 2018 global oil demand growth forecast unchanged; and is forecast to increase by around 1.65mln bpd to average 98.85mln bpd, with total oil consumption projected to surpass 100mln bpd during Q4 2018.
However, OPEC did warn that its outlook for H2 2018 warrants close monitoring of the factors impacting both world oil demand and non-OPEC supply that will shape the outlook of the oil market going forward; the tacit warning here is that oil prices may be so high to pressure oil demand.
“Looking at various sources, considerable uncertainty as to world oil demand and non-OPEC supply prevails,” said report read. “This outlook for the second half of 2018 warrants close monitoring.”
Indeed, according to the report, Saudi April oil demand saw its biggest drop on record, falling across all product categories, with most of the weakness in the heavy part of the barrel, OPEC reported. Demand was down more than 5% y/y in 1st 4 months of 2018, with April falling y/y by 420k b/d, or 17%.
“April was extremely sluggish, with the highest drop ever recorded” the monthly report cautioned:
In Saudi Arabia, the first four months of 2018 saw a more than 5% y-o-y decline in oil requirements. April was extremely sluggish, with the highest drop ever recorded. Oil requirements weakened by as much as 0.42 mb/d, which translates to more than 17%, y-o-y.
All product categories have shown a decline. Most of the weakness occurred in the heavy part of the barrel including the ‘other products’ category. Diesel oil continued its downward trend which started in 1Q16 as government infrastructure projects showed signs of slowing down. Cement deliveries dropped by more than 9% y-o-y, an indication of slower construction activities in the country.
Diesel demand dropped by 73k b/d, or 12%, y/y, continuing a downward trend that began in 1Q 2016, “as government infrastructure projects showed signs of slowing.” At the same time, gasoline and jet/kerosene consumption both fell by “around 7% y/y” on cuts to subsidies, general slowdown in consumer spending and higher inflation. Mild weather, higher electricity tariffs and substitution by natural gas all hit demand for fuel oil and crude in power generation, OPEC claimed.
Meanwhile, shale continues to pump and the cartel warned that non-OPEC oil supply in H2 2018 is anticipated to increase by 2.0mln bpd Y/Y; driven by US, Canada & Brazil.
So as we approach the OPEC June 22 meeting, it looks all but certain that OPEC is set to boost production by 500kb/d-1MMb/d to offset the decline in Iranian output. As Citi energy analyst Ed Morse said in a report, an output boost by 4 main producers in the OPEC+ accord “looks inevitable,” with producers most likely to return about half of the 1m b/d they removed from the market, although there is a clear possibility that up to 1MM in production would be increased.
After the June meeting, OPEC producers are likely to meet again in September at which point they will decide whether to keep phasing out the production cuts.
END
Both oil and gasoline slide on Russia’s
WTI/RBOB Slide On Russia Oil-Cut Rollbacks, Surprise Inventory Builds
After last week’s biggest inventory build since 2008, headlines confirming Russia is seeking a roll-back of oil-cuts saw selling pressure ahead of the API data which confirmed last week’s surprise builds in crude, gasoline, and distillates.
Bloomberg reports that Russia plans to propose that OPEC and its allies be allowed to return production to October 2016 levels, rolling back most but not all of their output cuts within three months, according to a person familiar with Russian thinking.
The nations would proportionally share out a 1.8 million barrel-a-day increase to their output limit starting as soon as July, the person said, asking not to be identified because the information isn’t public. The actual boost in supply to the market would be less than that because some states, notably Venezuela, Angola and Mexico, aren’t able to increase, the person said.
Additionally, next year, the U.S. government doesn’t see worldwide or U.S. crude production as high as it once did. The Energy Information Administration decreased its 2019 forecast for global production to 102.21 million barrels a day, with most of the downward revision from OPEC.
“Overall, where we’re at, is continuing to call into question just what the ultimate outcome will be of the OPEC meeting,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capita LLC.
“The opposition that you’re seeing from several OPEC members has given the market some pause about continuing to sell off here.”
API
- Crude +833k (-1.25mm exp)
- Cushing -730k (-900k exp)
- Gasoline +2.33mm
- Distillates +2.1mm
EIA-reported builds in Crude, gasoline, and distillates last week shocked markets, and this week confirmed that surprise in API data…
OPEC decisions remain on everyone’s mind but inventory data is spoiling the short-term fun and games.
“Our best guess is currently that there will be no formal decision to change the production target, but a rather a type of agreement or understanding that compliance will be relaxed,” said Johannes Benigni, chairman of JBC Energy Group in Singapore.
The surprise build combined with Russia sent prices modestly lower…
“The market is kind of re-thinking their concerns over OPEC trying to ramp up production, especially given the problems in Venezuela and Iran,” said Rob Haworth, who helps oversee $151 billion at U.S. Bank Wealth Management in Seattle. Given that some cartel members are having trouble even fulfilling their quotas, the specter of unwinding the caps is “not as bearish a scenario as some may have thought.”
8. EMERGING MARKET
ARGENTINA
Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00 am
Euro/USA 1.1788 UP .0014/ REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ SPAIN VS CATALONIA/REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES MIXED /
USA/JAPAN YEN 110.23 DOWN 0.154 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/SIGNALS U TURN WITH INCREASED NEGATIVITY IN NIRP/JAPAN OUT OF WEAPONS TO FIGHT ECONOMIC DISASTER/
GBP/USA 1.3392 UP 0.0020 (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED
USA/CAN 1.3011 UP .0025 (CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)
Early THIS TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 14 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1781; / Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED UP 27.02 POINTS OR 0.89% /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 39.36 POINTS OR 0.13% /AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP .13% / EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED /
The NIKKEI: this TUESDAY morning CLOSED UP 74.31 OR 0.33%
Trading from Europe and Asia
1/EUROPE OPENED ALL MIXED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 39.36 POINTS OR 0.13% / SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 27.02 POINTS OR 0.89% /
Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP .13%
Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 74,31 POINTS OR 0.33%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 1297.60
silver:$16.86
Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.96% !!! UP 0 IN POINTS from THURSDAY night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/
The 30 yr bond yield 3.10 UP 0 IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/
USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 93.58 DOWN 2 CENT(S) from MONDAY’s close.
This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING
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And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.99% DOWN 1 in basis point(s) yield from MONDAY/
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.05% UP 0/10 in basis points yield from MONDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.45% DOWN 0 IN basis point yield from MONDAY/
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.86 UP 2 POINTS in basis point yield from MONDAY/
the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 142 points HIGHER than Spain.
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO +.490% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY
END
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IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY
Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1781 UP .0009(Euro UP 9 Basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/
USA/Japan: 110,23 DOWN 0.165 Yen UP 17 basis points/
Great Britain/USA 1.3407 UP .0038( POUND UP 38 BASIS POINTS)
USA/Canada 1.2994 UP .0008 Canadian dollar DOWN 8 Basis points AS OIL ROSE TO $66.41
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This afternoon, the Euro was UP 9 to trade at 1.1781
The Yen ROSE to 110239 for a GAIN of 16 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE
The POUND GAINED 38 basis points, trading at 1.3407/
The Canadian dollar LOST 8 basis points to 1.2994/ WITH WTI OIL RISING TO : $66.41
The USA/Yuan closed AT 6.4028
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.050% UP 0/10 IN BASIS POINTS / yield/
Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 0 IN basis points from MONDAY at 2.97 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.10 DOWN 1 in basis points on the day /
THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS
Your closing USA dollar index, 93.59 DOWN 2 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/
Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 1:00 PM PM
London: CLOSED DOWN 33.62 POINTS OR 0.43%
German Dax :CLOSED UP 0.61 OR 0.00%
Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 20.54 POINTS OR 0.36%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 16.10 POINTS OR 0.16%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 33.56 POINTS OR 0.15%
The Dow closed DOWN 1.58 POINTS OR 0.01%
NASDAQ closed UP 43.87 OR .57 % 4.00 PM EST
WTI Oil price; 66.41 1:00 pm;
Brent Oil: 76.36 1:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE CROSS: 63.00 UP 16/100 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE LOWER BY 16 BASIS PTS)
TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES TO +.490% FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST
END
This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM
Closing Price for Oil, 4:30 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:
WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:$66.23
BRENT: $75.64
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.96% the dropping yields signify markets are in turmoil
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.09%/
EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1748 DOWN .0024 (DOWN 24 BASIS POINTS)
USA/JAPANESE YEN:110.34 DOWN 0.053 (YEN UP 5 BASIS POINTS/ .
USA DOLLAR INDEX: 93.81 UP 20 cent(s)/dangerous as the HIGHER dollar IS DESTROYING THE EMERGING MARKETS.
The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.3372 UP 0.0013 (FROM YESTERDAY NIGHT UP 13 POINTS)
Canadian dollar: 1.3016 UP 30 BASIS pts
German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: +490%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 12.30 CLOSED DOWN 0.05
LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.332% .
And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver
TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY
Stocks & Bonds Shrug At Historic Summit,
Surging Inflation, Sky-High Optimism
An historic Summit in Singapore, near record high business optimism, 7 year high surge in consumer prices, PTJ saying markets may meltup at some point, and bonds & stocks go nowhere…
The S&P and Dow struggled to stay green all day…but when 3pmET hit – markets were panic-bid… just because
Trannies remain best on the week…
Tech outperformed Financials once again…
Most eyes were on AT&T and TWX ahead of the judge’s decision tonight…
Treasury yields remained in a very narrow range once again with the long-end modestly outperforming the short-end ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC…
10Y yields made an early run towards 3.00% again but failed and ended unchanged…
But while overall yields didn’t move much the yield curve tumbled to a fresh 11 year flat…
The Dollar Index spiked on headlines that Jay Powell is planning on a press conference at every FOMC Meeting… This broke the dollar closing price out of its 18-day tight range)… (1168, 1170, 1169, 1168, 1169, 1168, 1171, 1173, 1177, 1170, 1171, 1172, 1171, 1172, 1170, 1170, 1170, 1172, 1176…)
EM FX slid for the 2nd day…
But ARS and BRL both gained on the day amid interventions…
Cryptocurrencies crashed ahead of the US equity market close…with Bitcoin now back below $6,500…
Bitcoin is back at its lowest since Feb 2018…which is perhaps the driver of the plunge as it breaks April support lows…
It’s been an ugly few days…
Despite USD strength, commodities did a whole lot of nothing…
Gold fell back below $1300 into the close today…
Finally, after February’s rapid PANIC correction, the markets heading back into EUPHORIA territory once again
Consumer Prices Surge At Fastest Pace Since
2011, Real Wage Growth Slumps
Last night’s Singaporean show was the prelude to the rest of the week’s real action – central banks – and nothing drives The Fed more than inflation anxiety as exhibited by Core CPI this morning… and it printed hot.
For the 32nd consecutive month, the consensus estimate on the street was +0.2% MoM – and expectations were met – pushing the headline CPI to+2.8% YoY (as expected) – the highest since December 2011…
Core CPI also rose to +2.1% YoY (as expected) – the highest since Jan 2017.
The indexes for new vehicles, education and communication, and tobacco increased in May, while the indexes for household furnishing and operations, and used cars and trucks fell. The indexes for apparel, recreation, and personal care were unchanged.
The medical care index increased 0.2 percent in May, with the index for prescription drugs increasing 1.4 percent, the index for hospital services increasing 0.5 percent, and the index for physicians’ services increasing 0.1 percent. The new vehicles index increased 0.3 percent in May, while the index for motor vehicle insurance increased 0.4 percent after falling 0.2 percent in April. The indexes for tobacco and for education and communication also increased.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 2.2 percent over the past 12 months, after increasing 2.1 percent in the 12 months ending March and April, and the medical care index rose 2.4 percent. Indexes that declined over the past 12 months include those for new vehicles, airline fares, used cars and trucks, and communication.
And while rent inflation remained the same, shelter index rose 3.5 percent over the last 12 months…
And while prices are soaring,real wage growth is slumping...
Real average hourly earnings were unchanged YoY – the weakest since Feb 2017.
Over to you Jay!
end
As David Stockman promised, the budget deficit will begin to rise in fiscal 2018 and already after 8 months it is 530 billion dollars. And this is before the big spending promised by Trump
Naturally the interest component is increasing due to the higher debt held at 21 trilllion dollars
We will no doubt hit 1.2 trillion deficit by next year coupled with 600 billion of bonds that must be purchased due to the Fed rolling off these amounts of bonds. The USA must raise a monstrous 1.8 trillion dollars in bond issuance.
(courtesy zerohedge)
US Budget Deficit Hits $530 Billion In 8 Months,
As Spending On Interest Explodes
The US is starting to admit that it has a spending problem.
According to the latest Monthly Treasury Statement, in May, the US collected $217BN in receipts – consisting of $93BN in individual income tax, $103BN in social security and payroll tax, $3BN in corporate tax and $18BN in other taxes and duties- a drop of 9.7% from the $240.4BN collected last March and a clear reversal from the recent increasing trend…
… even as Federal spending surged, rising 10.7% from $328.8BN last March to $363.9BN last month.
… where the money was spent on social security ($83BN), defense ($56BN), Medicare ($53BN), Interest on Debt ($32BN), and Other ($141BN).
The surge in spending led to a May budget deficit of $146.8 billion, above the consensus estimate of $144BN, a swing from a surplus of $214.3 billion in April and far larger than the deficit of $88.4 billion recorded in May of 2017. This was the biggest March budget deficit since the financial crisis.
The May deficit brought the cumulative 2018F budget deficit to over $531bn during the first eight month of the fiscal year; as a reminder the deficit is expect to increase further amid the tax and spending measures, and rise above $1 trillion.
The red ink for May deficit brought the deficit for the year to-date to $532.2 billion. Most Wall Street firms forecast a deficit for fiscal 2018 of about $850 billion, at which point things get… worse. As we showed In a recent report, CBO has also significantly raised its deficit projection over the 2018-2028 period.
But while out of control government spending is clearly a concern, an even bigger problem is what happens to not only the US debt, which recently surpassed $21 trillion, but to the interest on that debt, in a time of rising interest rates.
As the following chart shows, US government Interest Payments are already rising rapidly, and just hit an all time high in Q1 2018.
Interest costs are increasing due to three factors: an increase in the amount of outstanding debt, higher interest rates and higher inflation. A rise in the inflation rate boosts the upward adjustment to the principal of TIPS, increasing the amount of debt on which the Treasury pays interest. For fiscal 2018 to-date, TIPS’ principal has been increased by boosted by $25.8 billion, an increase of 54.9% over the comparable period in 2017.
The bigger question is with short-term rates still in the mid-1% range, what happens when they reach 3% as the Fed’s dot plot suggests it will?
* * *
In a note released by Goldman after the blowout in the deficit was revealed, the bank once again revised its 2018 deficit forecast higher, and now expect the federal deficit to reach $825bn (4.1% of GDP) in FY2018 and to continue to rise, reaching $1050bn (5.0%) in FY2019, $1125bn (5.4%) in FY2020, and $1250bn (5.5%) in FY2021.
Goldman also notes that it expects that on its current financing schedule the Treasury still faces a financing gap of around $300bn in FY2019, rising to around $750bn by FY2021, and will thus need to raise auction sizes substantially over the next couple of years to accommodate higher deficits.
What does this mean for interest rates? The bank’s economic team explains:
The increase in Treasury issuance and the ongoing unwind of QE should put upward pressure on long-term interest rates. On issuance, the economic research literature suggests as a rule-of-thumb that a 1pp increase in the deficit/GDP ratio raises 10-year Treasury yields by 10-25bp. Multiplying the midpoint of this range by the roughly 1.5pp increase in the deficit due to the recent tax and spending bills implies a 25bp increase in the 10-year yield. On the Fed’s balance sheet reduction, our estimates suggest that about 40-45bp of upward pressure on the 10-year term premium remains.
And here a problem emerges, because while Goldman claims that “the deficit path is known to markets, but academic research suggests these effects might not be fully priced immediately… the balance sheet normalization plan is known too, but portfolio balance effect models imply that its impact should be gradual” the bank also admits that “the precise timing of these effects is uncertain.”
What this means is that it is quite likely that Treasurys fail to slide until well after they should only to plunge orders of magnitude more than they are expected to, in the process launching the biggest VaR shock in world history, because as a reminder, as of mid-2016, a 1% increase in rates would result in a $2.1 trillion loss to government bond P&L.
Meanwhile, as rates blow out, US debt is expected to keep rising, and somehow hit $30 trillion by 2028…
… without launching a debt crisis in the process.
Stormy Daniels’ Lawyer Now Blames Russia For
Smearing Him
The attorney for adult film star Stormy Daniels is now blaming the Russian government, without any proof, for “trying to plant damaging stories about him in media outlets,” suggesting that he has been to Moscow and had a liaison with multiple Russian women, according to the Daily Beast.
Avenatti did not offer concrete proof to support the claim, but said two media figures and a high-ranking American intelligence official have all told him about the alleged Russian effort.
“They’re doing it because they see me as a threat, a considerable threat,” he said. “If we weren’t a threat, none of this would be happening.”
…Avenatti said Russians have also been saying he previously represented Russian and Ukrainian legal interests before the U.S. government. He said he has never represented any Russian or Ukrainian entities. –Daily Beast
“They were trying to claim that I too had taken a trip to Moscow,” Avenatti said. “I’ve never been to Moscow in my life, I’ve never traveled to Russia in my life.”
“They suggested that I had had a liaison with multiple women in Russia,” he added. “I found that to be rather ironic.”
Since representing Daniels, whose real name is Stephanie Clifford, skeletons in Avenatti’s closet have been pouring out – in large part due to reporting by the Daily Caller as well as citizen journalists.
Questions have emerged over who’s funding Avenatti, how he was privy to Trump attorney Michael Cohen’s bank records – and how exactly did he obtain banking transactions for two men also named Michael Cohen, who he wrongly accused in a seven-page “dossier” released this week.
Other questions have come to light over a bankrupt coffee chain Avenatti left in smoldering ashes with $5 million in unpaid taxes to the IRS, an alleged $160,000 owed for unpaid coffee, and over 45 lawsuits filed in connection with the failed venture.
Bitter coffee deal
As outlined in a legal complaint seeking Avenatti’s disbarment, the balding provocateur “bought a company out of bankruptcy and then used it for a “pump and dump” scheme to deprive federal and state taxing authorities of millions of dollars,” which left over $5 million in unpaid taxes to the IRS.
Avenatti purchased Tully’s out of bankruptcy in 2013, in partnership with actor Patrick Dempsey, who is best known for his role as Derek “McDreamy” Shepherd in the TV show “Grey’s Anatomy.” Dempsey sued Avenatti in August 2013 to break off the partnership.
Since then, Tully’s has significantly struggled. More than 45 lawsuits have been filed against the chain’s parent company, which Avenatti says he no longer owns. In 2017, the company owed roughly $5 million in unpaid taxes to the Internal Revenue Service. And, in March, the coffee chain abruptly closed all locations. –Business Insider
According to Dempsey, Avenatti was supposed to bankroll the deal through his company, Global Baristas, but didn’t have the funds – instead borrowing $2 million at an “exorbitant” 15% to close on the transaction. The actor sued to get out of the partnership after he claimed “Avenatti concealed the Loan and the Security Agreement from Dempsey.”
Since 2013, 46 cases have been filed against Global Baristas US LLC and its parent company, Global Baristas LLC in Washington’s King County Superior Court.
Avenatti’s estranged wife also said under oath he’s “emotionally abusive” and “vindictive.”
Lisa Storie-Avenatti said under oath that Michael Avenatti threatened to “burn” all of their money on their divorce, and would call the police to arrest both of them so that child protective services would take their son into protective custody. Storie-Avenatti’s attorneys argued in court that this was further proof that Avenatti “is angry and vindictive, and has no regard for emotional harm caused to his son, his daughter or to Lisa.”
In a sworn court declaration TheDCNF reviewed, Lisa Storie-Avenatti asked a California court to grant her exclusive use of their marital home after she said her husband threatened and emotionally abused her. Both parties now dispute this account, as they finalize their divorce.
Despite these recent denials, Storie-Avenatti alleged her husband threatened to call the police and get them both arrested, which would cause her to lose custody of their son and put him into the hands of the state’s child protective services. –TheDCNF
Avenatti and his estranged wife both dispute her testimony – marking the second time he has been accused of wrongdoing, only for his accuser to retract their claim after the Daily Caller reached out for comment.
Mueller Scrambles To Limit Evidence After Indicted Russians Actually Show Up In Court
Special Counsel Robert Mueller is scrambling to limit pretrial evidence handed over to a Russian company he indicted in February over alleged meddling in the 2016 U.S. election, according to Bloomberg.
Mueller asked a Washington federal Judge for a protective order that would prevent the delivery of copious evidence to lawyers for Concord Management and Consulting, LLC, one of three Russian firms and 13 Russian nationals. The indictment accuses the firm of producing propaganda, pretending to be U.S. activists online and posting political content on social media in order to sow discord among American voters.
The special counsel’s office argues that the risk of the evidence leaking or falling into the hands of foreign intelligence services, especially Russia, would assist the Kremlin’s active “interference operations” against the United States.
“The substance of the government’s evidence identifies uncharged individuals and entities that the government believes are continuing to engage in interference operations like those charged in the present indictment,” prosecutors wrote.
Improper disclosure would tip foreign intelligence services about how the U.S. operates, which would “allow foreign actors to learn of those techniques and adjust their conduct, thus undermining ongoing and future national security operations,” according to the filing.
The evidence includes thousands of documents involving U.S. residents not charged with crimes who prosecutors say were unwittingly recruited by Russian defendants and co-conspirators to engage in political activity in the U.S., prosecutors wrote. –Bloomberg
Mueller also accused Concord of “knowingly and intentionally” conspiring to interfere with the election by using social media to disparage Hillary Clinton and support Donald Trump.
And Concord Management decided to fight it…
As Powerline notes, Mueller probably didn’t see that coming – and the indictment itself was perhaps nothing more than a PR stunt to bolster the Russian interference narrative.
I don’t think anyone (including Mueller) anticipated that any of the defendants would appear in court to defend against the charges. Rather, the Mueller prosecutors seem to have obtained the indictment to serve a public relations purpose, laying out the case for interference as understood by the government and lending a veneer of respectability to the Mueller Switch Project.
One of the Russian corporate defendants nevertheless hired counsel to contest the charges. In April two Washington-area attorneys — Eric Dubelier and Kate Seikaly of the Reed Smith firm — filed appearances in court on behalf of Concord Management and Consulting. Josh Gerstein covered that turn of events for Politico here. –Powerline Blog
Politico’s Gerstein notes that by defending against the charges, “Concord could force prosecutors to turn over discovery about how the case was assembled as well as evidence that might undermine the prosecution’s theories.”
In a mad scramble to put the brakes on the case, Mueller’s team tried to delay the trial – saying that Concord never formally accepted the court summons related to the case, wrapping themselves in a “cloud of confusion” as Powerline puts it. “Until the Court has an opportunity to determine if Concord was properly served, it would be inadvisable to conduct an initial appearance and arraignment at which important rights will be communicated and a plea entertained.”
The Judge, Dabney Friedrich – a Trump appointee, didn’t buy it – denying Mueller a delay in the high-profile trial.
The Russians hit back – filing a response to let the court know that “[Concord] voluntarily appeared through counsel as provided for in [the Federal Rules of Criminal Procedure], and further intends to enter a plea of not guilty. [Concord] has not sought a limited appearance nor has it moved to quash the summons. As such, the briefing sought by the Special Counsel’s motion is pettifoggery.”
And the Judge agreed…
A federal judge has rejected special counsel Robert Mueller’s request to delay the first court hearing in a criminal case charging three Russian companies and 13 Russian citizens with using social media and other means to foment strife among Americans in advance of the 2016 U.S. presidential election.
In a brief order Saturday evening, U.S. District Court Judge Dabney Friedrich offered no explanation for her decision to deny a request prosecutors made Friday to put off the scheduled Wednesday arraignment for Concord Management and Consulting, one of the three firms charged in the case. –Politico
In other words, Mueller was denied the opportunity to kick the can down the road, forcing him to produce the requested evidence or withdraw the indictment, potentially jeopardizing the PR aspect of the entire “Trump collusion” probe.
And now Mueller is pointing to Russian “interference operations” in a last-ditch effort.
Of note, Facebook VP of advertising, Rob Goldman, tossed a major hand grenade in the “pro-Trump” Russian meddling narrative in February when he fired off a series of tweets the day of the Russian indictments. Most notably, Goldman pointed out that the majority of advertising purchased by Russians on Facebook occurred after the election, were hardly pro-Trump,and they was designed to “sow discord and divide Americans”, something which Americans have been quite adept at doing on their own ever since the Fed decided to unleash a record class, wealth, income divide by keeping capital markets artificially afloat at any cost.
HARVEY