JUNE 12/GOLD DOWN $4.70 TO $1295.60/SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TO $16.86/TRUMP AND KIM SIGN FIRST PHASE OF AN AGREEMENT HEADING TOWARDS DENUCLEARIZATION/

GOLD: $1295.60 DOWN  $4.70 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver: $16.86 DOWN  5 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Closing access prices:

Gold $1295.60

silver: $16.87

For comex gold:

JUNE/

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR JUNE CONTRACT:425 NOTICE(S) FOR 42500 OZ.

TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR 6587 FOR 658,700 OZ (20.488 tonnes)

For silver:

JUNE

16 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

80,000 OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 923 for 4,615,000 oz

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Bitcoin: BID $6795/OFFER $6895: down $32(morning)

Bitcoin: BID/ $6510/offer $6610: DOWN $317  (CLOSING/5 PM)

end

First Shanghai gold fix comes at 10 pm est

The second Shanghai gold fix:  2:15 pm

First Shanghai gold fix gold: 10 pm est: 1303.34

NY price  at the same time: 1298.45

PREMIUM TO NY SPOT: $4.89

Second gold fix early this morning: 1303.52

USA gold at the exact same time:1297.25

PREMIUM TO NY SPOT:  $6.28

AGAIN, SHANGHAI REJECTS NEW YORK PRICING.

WE WILL NOT PROVIDE LONDON FIXES AS THEY ARE NOT ACCURATE AS TO WHAT IS GOING ON AT THE SAME TIME FRAME.

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG 2208 CONTRACTS FROM  230,413 UP TO 232,621 ACCOMPANYING YESTERDAY’S GOOD 18 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING.    WE ARE NOW WITNESSING OUR USUAL AND CUSTOMARY COMEX LONG LIQUIDATION AS WE ENTERED INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE AS LONGS PACK THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATE OVER TO LONDON.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP: 2473 EFP’S FOR JULY, 153 EFP’S FOR SEPT. AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 2626 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 2626 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 2626 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 13.13 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 18 CENT FALL IN  SILVER PRICE  AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR JUNE COMEX DELIVERY. (4.630 MILLION OZ) DESPITE IT BEING A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH.

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF JUNE: 

19,255 CONTRACTS (FOR 8 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 19,255 CONTRACTS) OR 96.28 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2406 CONTRACTS OR 12.034 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH:  96.28 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 13.71% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:            1,410.47      MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018:                                               236.879     MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018:                                               244.95         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018:                                       236.67         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL 2018:                                          385.75         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MAY 2018:                                            210.05       MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD AN STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX OF 2208 WITH THE GOOD 18 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICE.  WE HAVE NOW ENTERED THE NEW NON ACTIVE MONTH OF JUNE.   THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT IN FACT WE HAD AN SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2626 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) . FROM THE CME DATA:  2473 EFP CONTRACTS FOR JULY,  153 EFP’S FOR SEPT. AND ZERO FOR ALL OVER MONTHS   FOR  A DELIVERABLE FORWARD CONTRACT OVER IN LONDON WITH A FIAT BONUS (TOTAL: 2626). TODAY WE GAINED A STRONG: 4834 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: i.e.2626 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH AN INCREASE OF 2208  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH THE GOOD 18 CENT RISE IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $16.91 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE STILL HAVE A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN THIS NON  ACTIVE JUNE DELIVERY MONTH. IT SURE LOOKS LIKE A FAILED BANKER SHORT COVERING EXERCISE!!

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.163 MILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 166% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT JUNE MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 16 NOTICE(S) FOR 80,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER, WE HAVE NOW SET THE NEW RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51  ON APRIL 9.2018. (AND IN LOOKS LIKE WE ARE GOING TO SEE ANOTHER RECORD HIT THIS MONTH)

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ AND MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ /AND JUNE/2018  (4.630 MILLION OZ SO FAR)
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/ (FINAL)

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT). IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE BANKER CAPITULATION IN SILVER AS THEY STRUGGLE TO REMOVE SOME OF THEIR HUGE OBLIGATIONS.

In gold, the open interest FELL BY A TINY 77 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 446,828 DESPITE THE GAIN IN THE GOLD PRICE/YESTERDAY’S TRADING (RISE OF $0.65).  WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE. NO DOUBT THE BOYS ARE CASHING IN THEIR COMEX LONGS TO BEGIN THE PROCESS TO MOVE INTO LONDON FORWARDS.  THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 4685 CONTRACTS :   JUNE SAW THE ISSUANCE OF 0 CONTRACTS , AND AUGUST SAW THE ISSUANCE OF:  4685 CONTRACTS WITH ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The new OI for the gold complex rests at 446,828. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED OI GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 77 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND A FAIR SIZED 4685 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN: 4,568 CONTRACTS OR 456,800 OZ = 14.208 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A TINY GAIN OF $0.65

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 5110  EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MAY : 76,108 CONTRACTS OR 7,610,800  OZ OR 236.72 TONNES (8 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 9513 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY OR 951,300 OZ/ TRADING DAY),,

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 7 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 236.72 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 236.72/2550 x 100% TONNES =  9.28% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN APRIL ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE:  3,688.55*  TONNES   *SURPASSED ANNUAL PROD’N

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018:           653.22  TONNES

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018:         649.45 TONNES

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018:                741.89 TONNES  (22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR APRIL 2018:                   713.84 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MAY 2018:                     693.80 TONNES ( 22 TRADING DAYS)

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

Result: A TINY SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 77 DESPITE THE TINY $0.65 GAIN IN PRICE // GOLD TRADING YESTERDAY ($0.65 RISE).  WE ALSO HAD AN FAIR SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 4685 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 4685 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD AN  NET  GAIN OF 4568 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

4685 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 77 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 14.208 TONNES). ..AND BELIEVE IT OR NOT BUT ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED AT THE COMEX WITH A TINY GAIN OF $0.65 IN TRADING!!!.

we had: 309 notice(s) filed upon for 30,900 oz of gold at the comex.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD  DOWN $4.70  TODAY: / NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ /GLD INVENTORY 828.76 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 828.76 tonnes.

SLV/

WITH SILVER DOWN A TINY 5 CENTS TODAY / A HUGE CHANGES IN THE SILVER INVENTORY AT  THE SLV/THE CROOKS RAIDED THE SILVER COOKIE JAR TO THE TUNE OF 1.976 MILLION OZ  (WITHDRAWAL)

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.290 MILLION OZ/

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY AN STRONG SIZED 2208CONTRACTS from  230,413 UP TO 232,621 (AND, FURTHER FROM  THE  NEW COMEX RECORD SET /APRIL 9/2017 AT 243,411/SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). THE PREVIOUS RECORD OTHER THAN WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER ONE YEAR AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89. OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS CONTINUES AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:   (WE DO NOT GET A LOOK AT THESE CONTRACTS AS IT IS PRIVATE BUT THE CFTC DOES AUDIT THEM), 2473 EFP’S FOR JULY, 153 EFP CONTRACTS FOR SEPT. AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2626 CONTRACTS . EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 2208 CONTRACTS TO THE 2626 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A GAIN OF 4834 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  24.17 MILLION OZ!!! AND THIS STRONG SIZED DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A GOOD 18 CENT RISE IN PRICE .  THE BANKERS ORCHESTRATED THEIR RAID THROUGHOUT LAST WEEK  DESPERATELY TRYING TO PARE THEIR GIGANTIC OPEN INTEREST SHORT ON BOTH EXCHANGES BUT TO NO AVAIL. JUDGING BY THE RECORD NUMBER OF EFP ISSUANCE DURING APRIL AT 385.75 MILLION OZ AND THE CONTINUAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES, THE CONSTANT RAIDS, (THAT ARE NOW BEING CALLED UPON BY OUR BANKER FRIENDS  IN AN ATTEMPT TO SHAKE AS MANY SILVER LEAVES FROM THE SILVER TREE AS POSSIBLE) AND JUDGING BY THE RESULTS FROM YESTERDAYS ACTION, THEY HAVE NOT BEEN AT ALL SUCCESSFUL.

RESULT: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 18 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING YESTERDAY. BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER STRONG SIZED 2626 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR JUNE, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

)TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed UP 27.02 points or 0.89%   /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 39.36 points or 0.13%    / The Nikkei closed UP 74.31 POINTS OR 0.33% /Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .13%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.4043/Oil UP to 66.02 dollars per barrel for WTI and 76.08 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED//.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.4043 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.4005/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING MUCH STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING MUCH WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE A FULL TRADE WAR IS BEGINNING/

 

/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA

The following is the first of many summits, but it seems that Kim is committed to denuclearizaiton

( zerohedge)

ii)Trump appealed to Kim by stating he could have the best hotels in the world 
( zerohedge)

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 c CHINA

i)Despite his success in North Korea, this morning, China redeploys missiles on the contested South China Sea island of Woody Island part of the Parcel islands

( zero hedge)

ii)the Senate adds a ZTE killing deal amendment to its defense bill..that which will no doubt anger China

( zerohedge)

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)ITALY/SPAIN

A stranded migrant ship which was originally headed for Italy, has run out of food as an Italian rescue vessel takes the refugees to Spain

(courtesy zerohedge)

ii)UK

REBELLION IN THE UK MAY GOVERNMENT AHEAD OF A CRITICAL “BREXIT” AMENDMENT VOTE

(courtesy zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

The uSA backed Syrian Kurds agree to unconditional talks with Assad after the USA and Turkey agree to patrol the northern part of Syria after an agreement by the Kurds to pull out of Manbij. No doubt that the Kurds will also deal with the Russians and eventually both Turkey and the USA will pull out of Syria having lost out to the Russians

( zerohedge)

6 .GLOBAL ISSUES

7. OIL ISSUES

SAUDI ARABIA

oil production jumps considerably in June despite a good drop in oil demand according to a statement by OPEC

( zerohedge)

8. EMERGING MARKET

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

The worst kind:  Bitcoin tumbles below $6500 on no news.  The boys seem to be dumping

(courtesy zerohedge)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silveri)

i)MARKET DATA FOR TODAY
a)This is not what the Fed wants:  higher consumer prices surging at its fastest pace and yet real wage growth is slumping.  They want the other way around
(courtesy zerohedge)
ii)As David Stockman promised, the budget deficit will begin to rise in fiscal 2018 and already after 8 months it is 530 billion dollars. And this is before the big spending promised by Trump

Naturally the interest component is increasing due to the higher debt held at 21 trilllion dollars

We will no doubt hit 1.2 trillion deficit by next year coupled with 600 billion of bonds that must be purchased due to the Fed rolling off these amounts of bonds.  The USA must raise a monstrous 1.8 trillion dollars in bond issuance.

(courtesy zerohedge)

v)SWAMP STORIES

a)For your enjoyment:  Stormy Daniel’s lawyer now blames the Russians for smearing him
(courtesy zerohedge)

b)Oh this is very funny!! Mueller scrambles to limit evidence after the indicted Russians actually show up in court!!!

(courtesy zerohedge)

Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest FELL BY A TINY SIZED 77 CONTRACTS DOWN to an OI level 446,828 DESPITE THE TINY GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($0.65 GAIN/ YESTERDAY’S TRADING).   FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE.   THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED  COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 4685 CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: FOR  JUNE, 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED,  FOR AUGUST 4685 CONTRACTS AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL  4685 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 4568 OI CONTRACTS IN THAT 4645 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST 77 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 4568 contracts OR 456,800  OZ OR 14.208 TONNES.

Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST WITH THE TINY GAIN IN PRICE /FRIDAY  (ENDING UP WITH AN GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.65).  THE  TOTAL OPEN INTEREST GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  4568 OI CONTRACTS..

We have now entered the active contract month of JUNE where we LOST 298 contracts and that leaves us with 1089 contracts  We had 309 notices filed upon yesterday so we AGAIN SURPRISINGLY GAINED A GOOD 11 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 1100 OZ WILL STAND TO DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AS THESE GUYS REFUSED THE SWEETNER FIAT OFFERED BY THE BANKERS.  I GUESS YOU CAN STATE THAT THIS IS CLOSE TO BACKWARDATION IN NY IN GOLD AS OWNERS REFUSE TO TAKE A GUARANTEED PROFIT TO OBTAIN A LOWER PRICED FUTURE CONTRACT FOR FEAR THAT THE PHYSICAL IS JUST NOT THERE WHEN THE FUTURE COMES DUE!!

.JULY saw a LOSS of 54 contracts to stand at 1300.  The next big delivery month after June is August and here the OI FELL BY 840 contracts UP to 320,690.

AFTER AUGUST, THE NEXT ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IS OCTOBER AND HERE THE OI ROSE BY 32 CONTRACTS UP TO 11,821 CONTRACTS.

We had 425 notice (s) filed upon today for 42,500 oz at the comex

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY: 224,437  contracts

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  219,170   contracts

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2208 CONTRACTS FROM 230,413 UP TO 232,621 (AND A GOOD CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS)  WITH THE GOOD 18 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING/ YESTERDAY. SINCE WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE, WE WERE  INFORMED THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED 2473 EFP CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR JULY, 153 EFP CONTRACTS FOR SEPT. AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS.  THESE EFPS WERE ISSUED TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 2626.  ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 4834 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A 2208  CONTRACT GAIN AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 2626 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  4834 CONTRACTS

AMOUNT STANDING FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX

We are now in the NON active delivery month of JUNE and here the front month ROSE BY contracts RISING TO 19 contracts. We had 13 notices filed upon yesterday so we gained 17 contracts or an additional 85,000 oz will stand in this non active delivery month of June AS SOMEBODY IS IN URGENT NEED OF PHYSICAL ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND AND QUEUE JUMPING CONTINUES IN EARNEST

The next big active delivery month for silver is July and here the OI LOST 429 contracts DOWN to 133,090.  The next delivery month is August and here we GAINED 5 contracts  to stand at 46. The next active delivery month after August for silver is September and here the OI ROSE by 2206 contracts UP to 63,602

We had 16 notice(s) filed for 80,000 OZ for the JUNE 2018 COMEX contract for silver

 

INITIAL standings for JUNE/GOLD

JUNE 12/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil OZ
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz nil

oz

No of oz served (contracts) today
425 notice(s)
 42,500 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
664 contracts
(66,400 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
6587 notices
658,700 OZ
20.488 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz
gold comex comatose despite June being a huge delivery month.
 TODAY, WE HAVE  A TINY  PULSE AT THE GOLD COMEX/ BUT AGAIN NO GOLD ENTERS.
we had 0 kilobar transaction/
We had 0 inventory movement at the dealer accounts
total inventory deposit into the dealer accounts:  NIL  oz
total inventory withdrawals out of dealer accounts; nil oz
we had 0 withdrawal out of the customer account:
total customer withdrawals:  nil oz
to which this landed as a deposit in JPMorgan:
we had 0 customer deposit
total customer deposits: nil oz
AND I WAS FINALLY WAITING FOR THIS: (IT USUALLY COMES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE/(THUS 12 DAYS LATE)
we had 1 adjustment(s)
AND IT WAS A DILLY.  THIS IS THE FIRST INDICATION OF A DELIVERY  (5.90 TONNES)
i) Out of JPMorgan  189,910.05 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and into the customer account. Whenever we see this, it is almost always a delivery settlement. The amount is equivalent to  5.90 tonnes

For JUNE:

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 369 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 425 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 170 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the JUNE. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (6587) x 100 oz or 658,700 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE. (1089 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (425 x 100 oz per contract) equals 725,100 oz, the number of ounces standing in this active month of JUNE (22.553 tonnes)

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JUNE contract month:

No of notices served (6587 x 100 oz)  + {(1089)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (425 x 100 oz )which equals 725,100 oz standing in this  active delivery month of JUNE .

FOR COMPARISON:

FOR THE JUNE/2017 CONTRACT INITIALLY 19.95 TONNES STOOD FOR DELIVERY.  AT THE END OF JUNE/2017:  9.176 TONNES STOOD AND THE REST MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

WE GAINED 11 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 1100 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY AS QUEUE JUMPING IS STARTING TO INTENSIFY AT THE GOLD COMEX SOMETHING THAT WHICH WE HAVE WITNESSED IN SILVER FOR THE PAST YEAR. 

“THERE ARE ONLY 15.783 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 22.553 TONNES STANDING  WHICH IS MAKING THIS JUNE CONTRACT MONTH AN EXTREMELY INTERESTING ONE TO WATCH (of which probably 5.90 tonnes have already been settled) 

total registered or dealer gold:  507,453.430 oz or 15.783 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   9,014,904.206 oz 280.401 tonnes

IN THE LAST 18 MONTHS 74 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE APRIL DELIVERY MONTH

JUNE INITIAL standings/SILVER

JUNE 12/ 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 1,315,787.784 oz
CNT
HSBC
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil;
oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,032,259.960
oz
jpmorgan
Delaware
Brinks
No of oz served today (contracts)
16
CONTRACT(S)
(80,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
3 contracts
(15,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 923 contracts

(4,615,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

total dealer deposits: nil oz

we had 3 deposits into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: 396,822,600 oz

ii) Into Brinks: 505,747.420 oz

iii) Into Delaware: 129,689.940 oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 140 million oz of  total silver inventory or 52.3% of all official comex silver. (140 million/268 million)

total customer deposits today: 1,032,259,960 oz

we had 2 withdrawals from the customer account;

i) Out of CNT: 562,173.862 oz

ii) Out of HSBC: 753,613.922 oz

total withdrawals;  597,642.656 oz

we had 0  adjustment/

total dealer silver:  66.073 million

total dealer + customer silver:  269.798 million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the JUNE. contract month is represented by 16 contract(s) FOR 80,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JUNE., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 923 x 5,000 oz = 4,615,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE. (19) and the number of notices served upon today (16 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the JUNE contract month: 923(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of JUNE(19) -number of notices served upon today (16)x 5000 oz equals 4,630,000 oz of silver standing for the JUNE contract month

PLEASE NOTE THE FOLLOWING FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES:

ON MAY 31.2017 WE INITIALLY HAD 396 OPEN INTEREST STAND OR A LARGE 1.98 MILLION OZ 

STOOD FOR METAL.

AT THE CONCLUSION OF JUNE 2017:  4.92 MILLION OZ FINALLY STOOD AS QUEUE JUMPING STARTED IN EARNEST AND IN THE ENSUING YEAR, IT CONTINUED WITH RECKLESS ABANDON INCLUDING WHAT YOU ARE WITNESSING TODAY

We gained 17 contracts or an additional 85,000 oz will stand in this non active delivery month of June as somebody was in urgent need of silver. IN SILVER QUEUE JUMPING HAS BEEN THE NORM FOR OVER A YEAR. IT LOOKS LIKE GOLD WANTS TO JOIN ITS WEAKER SISTER IN THIS SAME PHENOMENON

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 91,707 CONTRACTS

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY:85,249 CONTRACTS

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF  85,249 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO 426 MILLION OZ  OR 60.8% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -2.96% (JUNE 12/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.47% to NAV (JUNE 12/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -2.96%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/ territory at -0.47%/Central fund of Canada’s is still in jail but being rescued by Sprott.
Sprott WINS hostile 3.1 billion bid to take over Central Fund of Canada

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA): NAV FALLS TO -2.44%: NAV 13.62/TRADING 13.32//DISCOUNT 2.27.

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

JUNE 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.75:NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 828.76 TONNES

JUNE 11/WITH GOLD UP 65 CENTS/THE CROOKS RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR FOR 3.83 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 828.76 TONNES

JUNE 8/WITH GOLD DOWN 10 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 832.59 TONNES./

JUNE 7/WITH GOLD UP $1.45, THE CROOKS DECIDED TO RAID AGAIN THE GLD GOLD COOKIE JAR TO THE TUNE OF 3.54 TONNES/GOLD INVENTORY LOWERS TO 832.59 TONNES

JUNE 6/WITH GOLD UP $1.30 TODAY, WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.13 TONNES

JUNE 5/WITH GOLD UP $5.30 TODAY, WE HAD A TINY WITHDRAWAL OF .29 TONNES AND THAT NO DOUBT WAS TO PAY FOR FEES/836.13 TONNES

JUNE 4/WITH GOLD DOWN ONLY $2.50, THE CROOKS UNLEASHED A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 10.61 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.42 TONNES

JUNE 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.10 TODAY, A HUGE 4.42 TONNES OF GOLD WAS WITHDRAWN FROM THE GLD AND THIS WAS USED IN THE RAID TODAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 847.03 TONNES

MAY 31/WITH GOLD DOWN 1.60/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 851.45 TONNES

MAY 30/WITH GOLD UP $2.70: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.95 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 851.45 TONNES

MAY 29/2018/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.50/ NO CHANGES IN GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 848.50 TONNES

May 25/WITH GOLD UP ON THE WEEK BUT DOWN 80 CENTS TODAY: WE HAD A HUGE 3.54 TONNES OF GOLD WITHDRAWAL FROM THE CROOKED GLD/

MAY 24/WITH GOLD UP $12.40/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.04

MAY 22/WITH GOLD UP $1.05/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.04 TONNES

MAY 21/WITH GOLD DOWN 50 CENTS/A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY/A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.24 TONNES FORM GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 852.04 TONNES

MAY 18/WITH GOLD UP $1.80/A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ A DEPOSIT OF 9.11 TONNES INTO GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.28 TONNES/

GLD WAS ONE MASSIVE FRAUD

May 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.75/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.17 TONNES

MAY 16./WITH GOLD UP $1.05: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.17 TONNES

MAY 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $27.35, THE CROOKS WITHDREW 10 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD WHICH WAS USED IN THE RAID TODAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.17 TONNES

MAY 14/ WITH GOLD DOWN $2.35: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 4.68 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD and then a withdrawal of 1.48 tonnes /INVENTORY RESTS AT 866.17

A net gain of 3.2 tonnes of gold.

MAY 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.75/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.96 TONNES/

MAY 10/WITH GOLD UP $9.60/A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.96 TONNES/SUCH CROOKS

MAY 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.55/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.13 TONNES

MAY 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.10/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.13 TONNES

MAY 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.55/ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.13 TONNES

MAY 4/WITH GOLD UP $2.05/A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.13 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 865.60 TONNES

MAY 3/WITH GOLD UP $7.05/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 866.77 TONNES

MAY 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.15/ A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.43 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 866.77 TONNES

MAY 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $12.15/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.20 TONNES

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

JUNE 12/2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 828,76 tonnes

*IN LAST 395 TRADING DAYS: 97.83 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 345 TRADING DAYS: A NET 58.47 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO GLD INVENTORY.

end

Now the SLV Inventory/

JUNE 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS/A HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ THE CROOKS RAID THE SILVER COOKIE JAR BY 1.976 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 317.290 MILLION OZ/

jUNE 11/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/319.266 MILLION OZ

JUNE 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS/A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.412 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY LOWERS TO 319.266 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 7/WITH SILVER UP ANOTHER 12 CENTS/A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SL: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.883 MILLION OZ WITH ALL OF THAT SILVER DEMAND//INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.678 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 6/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.561 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 5/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.561 MILLION OZ

JUNE 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 1 CENTA SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 522,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/.INVENTORY RISES AT 322.561 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 322.039 MILLION OZ/

MAY 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 322.039 MILLION OZ/

MAY 30/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A DEPOSIT OF 2.071 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.039 MILLION OZ/

MAY 29.2018/ NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.968 OZ

May 25/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 319.968 AS WE HAD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.035 MILLION OZ

MAY 24/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.003 MILLION OZ/

MAY 22/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.003 MILLION OZ/

MAY 21/ WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.003 MILLION OZ/

MAY 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS  A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A WITHDRAWAL OF 942,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.003 MILLION OZ/

May 17/WITH GOLD UP 6 CENTS/A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 471,000 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.945 MILLION OZ/

MAY 16./WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS/A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.883 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.474 MILLION OZ

MAY 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS, NO CHANGES AT THE SLV; THE CROOKS COULD NOT BORROW ANY SILVER BECAUSE THERE IS NONE: INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.591 MILLION OZ

MAY 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS/A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A WITHDRAWAL OF 858,000 FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 319.591 MILLION OZ/

MAY 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS/THE CROOKS WITHDREW A MONSTROUS 2.824 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 320.439 MILLION OZ/

MAY 10/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 323.263 MILLION OZ/

MAY 9/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 323.263 MILLION OZ/

MAY 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 323.263 MILLION OZ.

MAY 7/WITH SILVER FLAT: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 942,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 323.263 MILLION OZ/

MAY4/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS/A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A DEPOSIT OF 1.224 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.205 MILLION OZ/

MAY 2/WITH SILVER UP 24 CENTS/A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF 6.082 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.981 MILLION OZ/

MAY 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 316.899 MILLION OZ/

JUNE 12/2018:

Inventory 317.290 million oz

end

6 Month MM GOFO 2.21/ and libor 6 month duration 2.49

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0FO+ 2.21%

libor 2.49 FOR 6 MONTHS/

GOLD LENDING RATE: .28%

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.76%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.61

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.15

end

end

Major gold/silver trading /commentaries for TUESDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.

GOLD/SILVER

Total US Government Debt Is $200 Trillion – Debt Clock Ticking To Next Crisis

– Too Many Trillions
– Rapid Maturity
– Leverage Plus Leverage
– Circling Vultures
– Total of U.S. Federal, State & City Debt Exceeds $200 Trillion Dollars

via Mauldin Economics

 

Rather go to bed without dinner than to rise in debt.

—Benjamin Franklin

What can be added to the happiness of a man who is in health, out of debt, and has a clear conscience?

—Adam Smith

There are no shortcuts when it comes to getting out of debt.

—Dave Ramsey

Modern slaves are not in chains, they are in debt.

—Anonymous

Debt isn’t always a form of slavery, but those old sayings didn’t come from nowhere. You can find hundreds of quotes on the Internet discussing the problems of debt. Debt traps borrowers, lenders, and innocent bystanders, too. If debt were a drug, we would demand it be outlawed.

The advantage of debt is it lets you bring the future into the present, buying things you couldn’t afford if you had to pay full price now. This can be good or bad, depending on what you buy. Going into debt for education that will raise your income, or for factory equipment that will increase your output, can be positive. Debt for a tropical vacation, probably not.

And that’s our core economic problem. The entire world went into debt for the equivalent of tropical vacations and, having now enjoyed them, realizes it must pay the bill. The resources to do so do not yet exist. So, in the time-honored tradition of lenders everywhere, we extend and pretend. But with our ability to pretend almost gone, we’re heading to the Great Reset.

I’ve been analogizing our fate to a train wreck you know is coming but are powerless to stop. You look away because watching the disaster hurts, but it happens anyway. That’s where we are, like it or not.

And we don’t even really like to talk about it in polite circles. In a private email conversation this week, which must remain anonymous, this pithy line jumped out at me:

The total of Federal (remember they do not use GAAP) debt, state debt, and city debt [unfunded liabilities included] exceeds $200 trillion dollars. There is no set of math that works to pay this off. Let me be sure it’s heard by repeating it: There is no set of math that works to pay this off. Therefore, there has to be some form of remediation. This conversation is uncomfortable, so it is avoided.

This is an excerpt. Full article is a must read and can be read on  Mauldin Economics

 

News and Commentary

Live Blog: Donald Trump-Kim Jong Un Summit in Singapore (Bloomberg)

Gold continues to struggle with $1,300 as key barrier holds action in place (FX Times)

Stocks creep higher, dollar retreats after U.S.- North Korea summit (Reuters)

Gold eases on firmer dollar; US-N.Korea summit, Fed meeting in focus (Economic Times)

Gold coins worth $155,000 discovered in abandoned house(News.com)

 

Will 2018 Be A Repeat of 2002 Tariffs? (First Macro Capital)

Debt Clock Ticking (Maldin Economics)

CNBC Poll: Gold amid rising geopolitical tensions. Buy or sell gold? (CNBC)

When Will Gold’s “Summer Doldrums” End? History Says Pretty Soon (Dollar Collapse)

Be Your Own Central Banker (Goldseek)

 

Listen on SoundCloud , Blubrry & iTunesWatch on YouTube below

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

11 Jun: USD 1,296.05, GBP 969.32 & EUR 1,099.57 per ounce
08 Jun: USD 1,299.20, GBP 968.68 & EUR 1,103.93 per ounce
07 Jun: USD 1,298.30, GBP 963.86 & EUR 1,097.97 per ounce
06 Jun: USD 1,295.25, GBP 964.57 & EUR 1,101.48 per ounce
05 Jun: USD 1,292.25, GBP 966.73 & EUR 1,105.13 per ounce
04 Jun: USD 1,294.65, GBP 966.46 & EUR 1,103.82 per ounce
01 Jun: USD 1,299.15, GBP 976.83 & EUR 1,111.42 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

11 Jun: USD 16.76, GBP 12.55 & EUR 14.23 per ounce
08 Jun: USD 16.72, GBP 12.49 & EUR 14.25 per ounce
07 Jun: USD 16.74, GBP 12.44 & EUR 14.15 per ounce
06 Jun: USD 16.55, GBP 12.33 & EUR 14.06 per ounce
05 Jun: USD 16.39, GBP 12.26 & EUR 14.03 per ounce
04 Jun: USD 16.44, GBP 12.29 & EUR 14.03 per ounce
01 Jun: USD 16.42, GBP 12.32 & EUR 14.02 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– All Gold is Not Equal – Goldnomics Podcast (Episode 4)
– “Without Gold I Would Have Starved To Death” – ECB Governor
– Swiss Government Pension Fund To Buy Gold Bars Worth Some €600 Million
– Turkey Uses Gold Bullion To Stabilise Its Currency And Economy
– Case for Gold in a Diversified Investment Portfolio
– Get “Positioned In Gold” Now As “You Will Not Have Time To Get Positioned” Later
– Consequences of Ignoring Economic Reality Are Dangerous
– Are Gold And Silver Bullion Obsolete In The Crypto Age?
– In Gold we Trust: 3 Important Factors Leading to the “Turning of the Monetary Tides”
– Silver Trading in Tight $1 Range As Pressure Builds For A Breakout
– Gold Back Above $1300 – Trump Cancels Historic Summit – Silver “Ready To Breakout”
– Gold Price Surges To Record In Turkey and Other Emerging Markets as Currencies Collapse
– Gold Rarity and Value Shown In Stunning Gold Visualisations
– Gold Looks A Better Investment Than UK Property

davidrussell

end

ANDREW MAGUIRE’S KINESIS WHICH IS A”BITCOIN’ BACKED 100% BY ALLOCATED GOLD AND SILVER

Andrew Maguire’s Kinesis money which is a “bitcoin” but backed 100% by allocated gold and silver is set to go.

it think it would be a great idea to look at this!

please read at:  https://kinesis.money/#/

(Andrew Maguire)

 Dear Harvey Organ,

Thank you for your participation in our webinar on June 7th with our host and CEO of Kinesis, Thomas Coughlin.

The response we received has been incredible, we appreciate you taking the time to join us and hope you found it to be beneficial.

Due to such a high influx of questions we received we were unable to have them all answered. Nevertheless, if there was anything which requires more clarification, or you have a query which needs to be rectified, we invite you to join our telegram group:

https://t.me/kinesismoney

We apologize for the technical issues we incurred during the webinar which resulted in it running a little over schedule, we hope that the next one we host will run seamlessly.

A video has been put together and uploaded onto our YouTube channel which can be found here:

Kinesis Webinar

Please share and subscribe to our YouTube channel to be notified of all the latest videos as they become available.

The rapid growth that we are currently experiencing has been incredible and with your support, is only going to get better.

We are working behind the scenes very hard to create a better experience for everyone involved! Stay tuned in as we have many more announcements to be released in the upcoming days.

Kind Regards,

Kinesis Money
a:C/O ILS Fiduciaries (IOM) Limited, First Floor,Millennium House, Victoria Road, Douglas, Isle of Man IM2 4RW
    
END

 

The following is self explanatory

(courtesy GATA/Chris Powell and Harvey Organ)

GATA asks bank regulator to check risks of gold

futures maneuver

 Section: 

12:21p ET Sunday, June 10, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GATA has appealed to the U.S. comptroller of the currency, who has regulatory authority over banks, to review financial risks certain banks may have incurred through derivatives in the monetary metals markets, particularly through the recent heavy use of the “exchange for physicals” mechanism of settling gold and silver futures contracts on the New York Commodities Exchange.

The appeal was made in a letter sent May 5 to the comptroller, Joseph M. Otting, whose office is part of the U.S. Treasury Department, by your secretary/treasurer and GATA futures market consultant Harvey Organ.

“Exchange for physical” settlements of futures contracts long were considered emergency procedures when a seller was not able to deliver metal from an exchange-approved warehouse and wanted to settle with delivery elsewhere. But now such settlements appear to constitute most gold and silver futures settlements on the Comex. It is a strange development that appears to have been necessitated by the increasing difficulties of central banking’s gold and silver price suppression policy.

GATA has received no acknowledgment of the letter. Its text is below and a PDF copy of it is here:

http://www.gata.org/files/ComptrollerOfCurrencyLetter.pdf

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

May 5, 2018

Joseph M. Otting, Comptroller of the Currency
U.S. Treasury Department
400 7th Street, SW
Washington DC 20219

Dear Comptroller Otting:

Please let us bring to your attention financial risks to major banks involving their possibly unreported exposure to derivatives in the monetary metals markets.

In recent months gold and silver future contracts issued by U.S. banks on the New York Commodities Exchange have been moved off-exchange for delivery through a mechanism known as “exchange for physical” (EFP) contracts. Until recently use of this mechanism was considered an emergency procedure when a seller did not have access to metal for delivery through Comex warehouses. Now the mechanism seems to be in use for a large share of front-month contracts for which delivery is sought.

Here is an example that is happening at the Comex in the front active month of April for gold and the inactive delivery month of April for silver.

In gold, there were 229,436 EFP contracts for 713.64 tonnes, an average of 10,925 contracts and 1,092,500 ounces per trading day.

In silver, there were 77,150 EFP contracts for 385,750,000 ounces, an average of 3,673 contracts and 18,369,000 ounces per trading day.

London Bullion Market Association rules suggest that these contracts may not be reported to regulators. The LBMA’s bylaws say:

“Figures above exclude any contracts not subject to risk-based capital requirements, such as FX contracts with an original maturity of 14 days or less, futures contracts, written options, and basis swaps. Therefore, the total notional amount of derivatives by maturity will not add to the total derivatives figure in this table.”

We are told that these EFP contracts are transferred from the Comex to London as what are called “serial forwards” and their duration is always less than 14 days, which exempts them from being reported.

It is our understanding that in each quarter your office prepares a report detailing risk undertaken by the banks under the comptroller’s supervision.

These risks include derivatives undertaken by U.S. banks and other obligations that may cause a bank to fail. Our concern is that your office may not be aware of large unreported derivative exposure by banks.

Could you review this matter and let us know your conclusions?

Sincerely,

CHRIS POWELL
Secretary/Treasurer

HARVEY ORGAN
Consultant

Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
7 Villa Louisa Road
Manchester, Connecticut 06043-7541

END

as a follow up:

Bill, Ed, Harvey:

I’ve just sent this to my congressman’s office, asking for the comptroller of the currency to be prodded to answer GATA’s letter.
cp
———- Forwarded message ———-
From: Chris Powell <cxpowell@yahoo.com>
Date: Mon, Jun 11, 2018 at 12:21 AM
Subject: letter to comptroller of the currency
To: Mary Yatrousis <mary.yatrousis@mail.house.gov>Hi, Mary:Here’s a somewhat more substantial request for help from Representative Larson.Attached as a PDF is a letter my organization, the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc., sent to the U.S. comptroller of the currency more than a month ago. We have gotten no acknowledgment.I realize that the mail can be slow in Washington as it undergoes security checks, but I’d be grateful if the comptroller’s office could be encouraged to respond in the near future.Thanks again.

cp
—–
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
7 Villa Louisa Road
Manchester, Connecticut 06043-7541
USA

end

The worst kind:  Bitcoin tumbles below $6500 on no news.  The boys seem to be dumping

*(courtesy zerohedge)

Bitcoin Tumbles Below $6500 As Cryptos

Suddenly Plunge

No obvious catalysts for now but the crypto space just took another leg lower with Bitcoin now back below $6,500…

Bitcoin is back at its lowest since Feb 2018…which is perhaps the driver of the plunge as it breaks April support lows…

It’s been an ugly few days…

 

end



___________________________________________________________________

Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP TO 6.4043  /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 27.02 POINTS OR 0.89%     HANG SANG CLOSED UP 39.36  POINTS OR 0.13%
2. Nikkei closed UP 74,31 POINTS OR 0.33% /  /USA: YEN RISES TO 110.23/

3. Europe stocks OPENED MIXED  /     /USA dollar index FALLS TO 93.58/Euro RISES TO 1.1786

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO . +.05/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 110.00/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD FINALLY IN THE POSITIVE/BANK OF JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR YIELD CURVE AS THEY PURCHASE ALL BONDS TO GET TO ZERO RATE!!

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 66.02  and Brent: 76.08

3f Gold UP/Yen DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.51%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 2.81% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.48%

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 4.47

3k Gold at $1297.25 silver at:16.86   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 4/100 in roubles/dollar) 62.58

3m oil into the 64 dollar handle for WTI and 75 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 110.23 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9840 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1598 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to +0.51%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.96% early this morning (THIS IS DEADLY TO ALL MARKETS). Thirty year rate at 3.10%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

(courtesy Jim Reid/Bloomberg/Deutsche bank/zero hedge)

Stock Rally Fizzles As Korea Summit Fails To

Impress; Market Waiting “For Bigger Things”

Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk

  • Summit between Trump and Kim ends
  • UK front-bencher resigns ahead of House of Commons EU Withdrawal Bill vote
  • Looking ahead, highlights include, US CPI, APIs and UK House of Commons debates EU Withdrawal Bill

Markets shrugged off the the much anticipated historic” Singapore summit, with the global stock rally fading, US futures and Asian currencies falling amid a buoyant dollar, and the S. Korea won reversing an earlier gain after the Trump-Kim summit didn’t result in any major breakthroughs and culminated with a document signed by the two leaders including unspecified security guarantees and a vague, unenforceable denuclearization commitment.

“Despite the historic event, the markets haven’t moved much because they’ve already discounted the risk of military conflict,” Goldman’s co-head of Korea research Goohoon Kwon told Bloomberg Television. What’s more important going forward is the “follow-through, execution, implementation” of any agreements, he said.

There is some doubt about that: none other than Iran was quick to troll the US and warn North Korea that the agreement isn’t worth the paper it was signed on:

  • IRAN GOVERNMENT SPOKESMAN WARNS NORTH KOREA THAT TRUMP COULD CANCEL THEIR AGREEMENT BEFORE RETURNING TO WASHINGTON – IRNA

Commenting on the overnight session’s muted trading, Bloomberg notes that “markets are waiting for bigger things” with most asset classes remained within tight ranges. The big surprise was the lack of any real reaction to any of the Trump/Kim summit.

As Bloomberg also notes, there was never much prospect of the U.S.-North Korea summit triggering a large market reaction, except perhaps in the event of a shock outcome. A seemingly certain Federal Reserve rate increase on Wednesday, plus the prospect of a hawkish ECB tilt on Thursday, tease far more concrete developments for traders.

Meanwhile the relief rally in BTPs continues, with the spread against bunds continuing to tighten from blow-out levels seen previously.  European equity markets initially open higher before fading back to flat, mining stocks underperform; defensive sectors such as utilities support. Crude and metals markets also relatively flat

Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index opened higher, but pared its advance after modest gains for many Asian gauges failed to ignite the MSCI Asia Pacific Index, with mining stocks underperforming. S&P 500 futures were flat after posting another increase on Monday. Safe-haven assets including the yen and gold slipped in the aftermath of the Singapore agreement.

The pound reversed a decline before Theresa May’s landmark Brexit legislation goes to Parliament, after data showed a surprise moderation in the pace of wage growth.

As a reminder, today the UK faces a historic vote on Brexit, with PM May reportedly heading off a Conservative rebellion ahead of today’s key Brexit vote by reaching out to Remainers in her party according to the Telegraph. Furthermore, UK Brexit Secretary Davis is said to back deal to buy-off Tory rebels on both wings of the party ahead of the EU Withdrawal Bill vote in the UK’s lower house. UK solicitor general Baker that the government is discussing with lawmakers the replacement of an Upper House amendment on EU’s customs union and that it is appropriate to have a customs arrangement with the EU. UK Conservative MP Grieve said to have tabled a compromise amendment on the Brexit deal and would likely rebel if it is rejected. However, UK government sources indicated that they have no intention of backing MP Grieve’s amendment to try to buy off rebels over the meaningful vote. In other words, look for more sterling drama in just a few hours.

Ahead of the Fed announcement tomorrow, today we will get a critical CPI print: the consensus today is for a +0.2% mom core and headline print. The former is also expected to nudge up one-tenth to +2.2% yoy. That +0.2% monthly consensus estimate should be fairly familiar as this is now the 32nd consecutive month that we’ve had such a forecast on the street. For those wondering, only 17 of them have proven to be correct with most missing on the downside. Deutsche economists expect the core to come in at +0.2% as they anticipate some payback from unusual weakness last month in categories such as airfares as well as new and used vehicles. In fact, the German bank expects the annual rate to rise to +2.3% yoy which would be the highest since January 2017. All that to look forward to later.

Putting the Korean drama in the rearview mirror, the dollar was little changed as investors turned their attention toward today’s CPI report and this week’s central bank policy meetings after the deal signed by the U.S. and North Korea was seen as a “sideshow” given the lack of specific commitments. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index erased an earlier advance to be steady on the day; Treasury 10-year yields held the gains from the previous two sessions and was at 2.96%

The yen drifted lower against all its Group-of-10 peers as the agreement still was seen as easing global tensions and reducing demand for haven assets. Norway’s krone rallied to a seven-month high against the euro after a survey by the central bank suggested growth outlook remains intact, strengthening the case for a rate hike after the summer

In other geopolitical news, the Russian deputy foreign minister says the nation will retaliate to the latest US sanctions.

In commodities, oil was unable to hold onto initial gains resulting from softer USD coming from the historic US-North Korean summit. WTI currently trading above the USD 66.00 handle, and Brent trading above the USD 76.00 level, with the fossil fuel flat on the day. In the metals scope, Gold is also seeing some follow through from an improved risk tone, with the yellow metal down 0.2% on the day. Steel is positive after two sessions in the red as price increases in large Chinese firms has offered support to the metal. Copper has shed losses earlier in the day and is  now up on the day as the metal is benefiting from the improved risk tone.

A handful of companies are set to report earnings, including Oxford Industries and John Wiley. On the macro side, data is expected on NFIB Small Business Optimism and on CPI.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.04% to 2,782.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.03% to 388.05
  • MXAP up 0.07% to 175.18
  • MXAPJ up 0.1% to 574.11
  • Nikkei up 0.3% to 22,878.35
  • Topix up 0.3% to 1,792.82
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.1% to 31,103.06
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.9% to 3,079.80
  • Sensex up 0.6% to 35,679.14
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 6,054.44
  • Kospi down 0.05% to 2,468.83
  • German 10Y yield rose 2.0 bps to 0.513%
  • Euro up 0.2% to $1.1802
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 28.9 bps to 2.569%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 2.2 bps to 1.463%
  • Brent Futures up 0.5% to $76.84/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.2% to $1,298.00
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.1% to 93.50

Top Headline News from Bloomberg

  • President Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un expressed optimism that the U.S. and North Korea could find a path toward peace, opening a highly anticipated summit between two adversaries that only last year had seemed on the brink of nuclear war
  • The Fed will likely deliver an expected interest-rate increase on Wednesday but still has plenty of topics to dissect — from a falling unemployment rate to emerging-market pain
  • Italian Finance Minister Giovanni Tria’s expression of commitment to the euro are “far-sighted and create confidence,” European Union Budget Commissioner Guenther Oettinger said
  • German investor confidence tumbled to its lowest level since 2012 as U.S. trade tariffs and Italy’s political turmoil added to concerns that the economy is slowing. German Jun. ZEW Expectations: -16.1 vs -14.0 est; Current Situation 80.6 vs 85.0 est.
  • The U.K. economy continued to create jobs faster than forecast, even though basic wage growth unexpectedly slowed. U.K. Apr. Average Weekly Earnings ex-bonus 2.8% vs 2.9% est; Unemployment Rate 4.2% vs 4.2%; Employment Change 146k vs 120k est.
  • Brexit: vote today on whether Parliament can direct Brexit negotiations if final deal is rejected by MPs; pro-remain govt. rebels have put forward compromise amendment vs govt’s own compromise agreement; one govt minister resigns to join rebels
  • IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said the risks to the global economy are rising as major industrial nations sharpen threats of a trade war
  • Bond traders have their work cut out for them before they get to the pivotal event for U.S. financial markets this week — Wednesday’s announcement from the Federal Reserve. The Treasury is about to pack $193 billion of debt sales into the next two days. That potentially puts the onus on Wall Street to absorb the deluge if investors are reluctant to choke it down before the central bank’s decision
  • Theresa May’s govt is in advanced talks to head off a rebellion by pro-European members of her Conservative Party, edging toward a deal on Brexit that could hold her divided party together through a week of perilous voting
  • Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said he won’t accept the return of a hard border on the island of Ireland after Brexit even if Britain crashes out of the European Union without a deal on its future relationship with the bloc
  • Oil held gains near $66 a barrel as a divide between OPEC and allies deepened over whether to ease production curbs and sell more crude into global markets
  • President Donald Trump’s top economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, was “doing well” on Monday night after suffering a “very mild heart attack,” a White House spokeswoman said
  • U.K. Justice Minister Phillip Lee resigns and says he will vote with rebels on an amendment that would give Parliament the power to direct negotiations if lawmakers reject May’s Brexit deal

Asian equity markets mostly traded with modest gains following a similar performance on Wall St. and with focus fully centred on the historical summit between US President Trump and North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un. The meeting between the 2 leaders was seen as amicable in which the leaders shook hands several times and exchanged pleasantries, although the initial face-to-face was somewhat less awe-inspiring than that of the inter-Korean summit in April. In addition, after one-on-one discussions Trump suggested a ‘very very good, good relationship’ and Kim stated there will be challenges ahead but will work with US President Trump, although reports also noted that Kim refrained from answering questions on denuclearisation. ASX 200 (+0.2%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.3%) were positive with early outperformance seen in Japan amid a weaker currency, although some of the gains were pared due to pessimism that a swift agreement could be reached for the Korean peninsula. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+0.1%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.9%) have swung between gains and losses alongside a broad tentative tone across the region and after a tepid liquidity effort by the PBoC. Finally, 10yr JGBs were subdued amid a lack of conviction in the region and with an enhanced liquidity auction for longer-dated bonds largely ignored, which showed slight decline in the bid to cover and tighter accepted spreads.

Top Asian News

  • TV Maker Blames India’s Modi, Court and Brazil for Bad Debt Pile

European bourses are mixed (Euro Stoxx 50 -0.2%) after failing to hold onto initial gains spurred on by an improved risk sentiment in the wake of the Trump-Kim summit. The underperforming bourse is currently the FTSE (-0.2%) as a stronger GBP is pressuring the index amid reports that UK PM May has struck a compromise with Conservative rebels. Carrefour (+2.5%) is up on the news that Google will begin to sell their products online in France through their  platforms. This is offering support to the consumer staples sector, which is the current sector outperformer (+0.44%) Casino (+6%) is leading the gains in Europe after the co. announced an asset sale plan in order to reduce debt. Daimler has recalled 238,000 vehicles in Germany due to illegal emission device concerns; a total of 774,000 vehicles are affected in Europe.

Top European News

  • U.K. Employment Rises More Than Forecast But Wage Growth Slows
  • Euro Mauled by Political Risk Is Ready to Be Revived by Draghi
  • May Seeks to Head off Rebellion With Hours To Go: Brexit Update
  • ABB CEO Says U.S. Tariffs Put Jobs at Risk: FT

In currencies, the DXY index and Usd in general has drifted back from peaks seen in wake of the Trump-Kim meeting that climaxed in an historic signing of significant documents to herald a new dawn and more concerted pledge to work towards peace via denuclearisation. The DXY remains supported around 93.500, but off highs just shy  of 93.900 as attention shifts to US CPI ahead of the Fed. GBP – A marginal outperformer going in to the latest UK labour/wage data, which was somewhat mixed in the event, and only prompted a knee-jerk retreat in the Pound as the spotlight switches back to the Brexit vote amid reports that PM May has quelled a faction of Tory rebels. Cable currently holding close to 1.3400 and Eur/Gbp pivoting 0.8800 even though the single currency is firmer overall. NZD/CHF/EUR/AUD – All modestly firmer vs the Greenback with the Kiwi consolidating above 0.7000 and Franc still rangebound either side of 0.9850, while Eur/Usd is retesting offers and resistance at 1.1800 just above its 100 HMA (1.1786) and a band of option expiries from 1.1775-90 in 1.5 bn. Note, disappointing ZEW sentiment indicators sapped some of the single currency’s pre- ECB momentum. Aud/Usd has recovered 0.7600+ status after a dip on mixed Aussie data overnight (housing loans not as weak as forecast, but business sentiment and conditions both declined). JPY/CAD – The G10 laggards once again, with Usd/Jpy up through its 200 DMA (110.21) to test offers at 110.50 and Eur/Jpy absorbing residual supply at 130.00 to trip some 130.25 stops in wake of the Summit, while the  Loonie is still smarting from the G7 squabble between Trump and Trudeau and just holding off 1.3000+ lows vs its US rival.

In commodities, oil was unable to hold onto initial gains resulting from softer USD coming from the historic US-North Korean summit. WTI currently trading above the USD 66.00 handle, and Brent trading above the USD 76.00 level, with the fossil fuel flat on the day. In the metals scope, Gold is also seeing some follow through from an improved risk tone, with the yellow metal down 0.2% on the day. Steel is positive after two sessions in the red as price increases in large Chinese firms has offered support to the metal. Copper has shed losses earlier in the day and is  now up on the day as the metal is benefiting from the improved risk tone.

Looking at the day ahead, the big highlight in terms of data comes with the May CPI report. The May NFIB small business optimism reading and May monthly budget statement will also be out in the US. Prior to this in Europe we’ll get the June ZEW survey in Germany and April/May employment data in the UK including average weekly earnings. Meanwhile, UK Parliament is due to hold a 12-hour session on Brexit legislation with various amendments due.

US Event Calendar

  • 6am: NFIB Small Business Optimism, est. 105, prior 104.8
  • 8:30am: US CPI MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%; CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.1%
    • US CPI YoY, est. 2.8%, prior 2.5%; US CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 2.2%, prior 2.1%
  • 8:30am: Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY, prior 0.42%; Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY, prior 0.2%
  • 2pm: Monthly Budget Statement, est. $139.5b deficit, prior $214.3b

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

In the decades and centuries to come, will this date go down in history as a big turning point for the history of mankind, a date future generations can celebrate, a new beginning, and a day used to remember that one person can really make a big difference. Yes 44 years ago today I was born. On the more mundane subject of whether world peace gets a step closer today, President Trump and Kim Jong Un’s mission to Singapore seems to be off to a positive start, with Trump noting he had forged a “good relationship” with Kim, while Kim indicated “there will be challenges ahead” but he vowed to work with Trump. As we go to print Trump has declared that the meeting with Kim is “going great ”. We shall find out more at President Trump’s news conference at 4pm local time (9am London time).

Notably, Kim is scheduled to head back home at 2pm today. Meanwhile, earlier yesterday Secretary of State Pompeo reaffirmed that complete and irreversible denuclearisation is the “only outcome that the US will accept”, but unnamed US officials have told Bloomberg that Trump was willing to offer “unique guarantees” to North Korea to consummate a potential deal.

This morning in Asia, markets are trading modestly higher with the Nikkei (+0.42%), Hang Seng (+0.28%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.46%) all up while the Kospi is broadly flat. Datawise, Japan’s May PPI print was well above consensus at 0.6% mom (vs. 0.2% expected) and 2.7% yoy will be out this afternoon and along with tomorrow’s PPI are the last big data prints that the Fed will have before their meeting. The consensus today is for a +0.2% mom core and headline print. The former is also expected to nudge up one-tenth to +2.2% yoy. That +0.2% monthly consensus estimate should be fairly familiar as this is now the 32nd consecutive month that we’ve had such a forecast on the street. For those wondering, only 17 of them have proven to be correct with most missing on the downside. Our US economists also expect the core to come in at +0.2% as they anticipate some payback from unusual weakness last month in categories such as airfares as well as new and used vehicles. Our colleagues actually expect the annual rate to rise to +2.3% yoy which would be the highest since January 2017. All that to look forward to later.

Also today and tomorrow we have the important parliamentary Brexit votes in the House of Commons. As DB Oli Harvey pointed out yesterday there are three important amendments to look out for. The first, amendment 4, requires the UK government to keep the UK in a customs union with the EU. The government could lose this vote, but as it is quite vaguely drafted, it’s not widely expected that this would prove fatal to May’s Brexit strategy. The second, amendment 7, requires the UK to remain in the EEA. A defeat here would be significant, but the government is less likely to lose as it’s not official Labour Party policy. The third, amendment 49, is probably the most important. This amendment gives more powers to Parliament over the final Brexit outcome. Most importantly, if Parliament rejects the government’s final deal (which it has to put before the Commons by 30th November), Parliament can effectively take over the Brexit negotiations. In these circumstances, the baseline is likely to be that the UK goes straight to a very soft Brexit due to the make-up of MPs being very pro remain. From a market perspective, a government defeat on amendment 49 could therefore either be very bullish or very messy. On the former, if the government loses the amendment and May continues, the tail risk of a hard Brexit would be substantially removed (if Parliament didn’t like the deal, it could instruct the government to go straight to EEA membership). On the latter, by losing the vote, hard Brexit MPs could trigger a vote of no confidence in May. If this was the case, the question is how much of the support of the Conservative Party May would lose. If only 30-odd MPs voted against her, she is likely to survive and be in a stronger position. If it was more like 80, May could resign and things could get very messy. The bottom line is that amendment 49 is the one to look out for. Baseline would be that government offers more concessions today and wins the vote. But if the outcome was more uncertain, the crucial vote is likely to occur on either Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning/lunchtime, based on the parliamentary schedule as it stands. Thanks again to Oli for guidance on the above.

Now recapping other markets performance from yesterday. The focus was on Italian risk assets which rallied after the country’s new Finance Minister noted the coalition was committed to remaining in the Eurozone and wanted to boost growth through structural reforms. The FTSE MIB jumped +3.42% while the banks index posted its biggest one-day gain in 13 months as Intesa (+6.6%) and Unicredit (+6.2%) both rallied. Meanwhile, the yields on 2y and 10y BTPs dropped 61.8bp and 28.9bp respectively, with the former now down to 1.02% vs. its recent peak of 2.64%. The risk on sentiment also lifted the Stoxx 600 (+0.73%) and credit markets (EU Main -3.3bp; iTraxx sub-Financial -13.9bp). Across the pond, the S&P pared back earlier gains to close marginally higher (+0.11%) as utilities and financials stocks.

Elsewhere core European government bonds weakened modestly with the yields on Bunds (+4.5bp) and Gilts (+1.6bp) both higher, while UST 10y were little changed (+0.6bp) after the Treasury Department successfully sold $54bln of 3y and 10y notes with solid investor demand. In FX, the US dollar index and Euro both firmed c0.1% while Sterling weakened -0.19% following softer than expected IP and manufacturing production prints. In commodities, WTI oil rose 0.55% to $66.10/bbl, in part as the Iraqi oil Minister al-Luaibi noted his disagreement with Saudi Arabia’s proposal to unwind oil output caps, while a key pipeline crack was thought to risk oil exports from Nigeria.

Away from the markets and onto some trade rhetoric, President Trump has fired off tweets to his G7 allies yesterday, noting that “fair trade is now to be called fool trade if it’s not reciprocal” and that “sorry, we cannot let our friends, or enemies, take advantage of us on trade anymore”. Meanwhile, IMF Managing Director Ms Lagarde has warned “the clouds on the horizon that we have signalled about six months ago are getting darker by the day” and that “the biggest and darkest cloud” over the global economy is the risk of deterioration of confidence “by attempts to challenge the way in which trade has been conducted….” Meanwhile, a spokesman for Germany’s Ms Merkel noted that EU retaliatory tariffs against the US are ready and can take effect from 1 July, but Germany remains ready to resolve the trade tensions via dialogue.

Before we take a look at today’s calendar, we wrap up with other data releases from yesterday. In the UK, both the April IP and manufacturing production were below consensus, at -0.8% mom (vs. 0.1% expected) and -1.4% mom (vs. 0.3% expected) respectively. The latter represents the largest monthly decline since October 2012. DB’s Harvey noted that manufacturing is a relatively small part of the UK economy (10%) and so stronger demand in services could offset this, but does show that domestic demand needs to pick-up as the windfall from a strong external environment is fading. Elsewhere, the UK’s April trade deficit widened more than expected at -£5.3bln (vs. -£2.5bln expected), with exports down -3.2% mom. Over in France, the May Bank of France industrial sentiment index edged down 2pts mom to 100 (vs. 102 expected), which is the lowest reading since October 2016. Meanwhile, Italy’s April IP also fell more than expected to -1.2% mom (vs. -0.5% expected), slowing annual growth to 1.9% yoy.

Looking at the day ahead, the big highlight in terms of data comes in the afternoon in the US with the May CPI report. The May NFIB small business optimism reading and May monthly budget statement will also be out in the US. Prior to this in Europe we’ll get the June ZEW survey in Germany and April/May employment data in the UK including average weekly earnings. Meanwhile, UK Parliament is due to hold a 12-hour session on Brexit legislation with various amendments due.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed UP 27.02 points or 0.89%   /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 39.36 points or 0.13%    / The Nikkei closed UP 74.31 POINTS OR 0.33% /Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP .13%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.4043/Oil UP to 66.02 dollars per barrel for WTI and 76.08 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED//.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.4043 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.4005/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING MUCH STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING MUCH WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW LOOKS LIKE A FULL TRADE WAR IS BEGINNING/

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

North Korea/South Korea/usa

The following is the first of many summits, but it seems that Kim is committed to denuclearizaiton

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump And Kim Sign “Comprehensive” Letter To End Historic Summit, Agree To “Follow-On” Negotiations

Donald Trump and North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un signed what the US president described as a “very important, comprehensive” document following the conclusion of their “really fantastic” whirlwind historic summit in Singapore, the first between a US president and North Korean leader that came after decades of hostility.

“The letter that we are signing is very comprehensive, and I think both sides will be very impressed with the results,” Trump said as he sat alongside the North Korean leader at a large wooden table in front of a bank of U.S. and North Korean flags to endorse the document, which however produced no new specific commitments from Pyongyang to surrender its nuclear weapons aside from broad generalities.

Speaking through an interpreter, Kim said that the two countries “had a historic meeting and decided to leave the past behind and we are about to sign a historic document” adding that “I would like to express gratitude to President Trump for making this meeting happen.”

Trump said more information would come out “in just a little while” and did not say what the agreement entailed, but some had already managed to extract the key contents from the letter Trump held up.

William Craddick@williamcraddick

Channel NewsAsia complaining that they haven’t gotten the text of the agreement between Trump and Kim from think tanks – new media already figured out what the four points of agreement were

The letter says that the U.S. and North Korea “will join their efforts to build a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula,” and that North Korea “commits to work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.”

The pair also agree to “establish new U.S.-DPRK relations, and the two leaders “have committed to cooperate for the development of new U.S.-DPRK relations and for the promotion of peace, prosperity and security of the Korean Peninsula and of the world.”

Notably, the U.S. and N. Korea agree to follow-on negotiations led by Sec. of State Mike Pompeo and a DPRK counterpart.

In other words this is just the first of many summits.

* * *

Speaking to reporters, Trump also said the he would “absolutely” invite Kim to the White House to continue their talks, meanwhile Kim called the document “historic” and said it would lead to a new era in the U.S.-North Korea relationship.

“We had a historic meeting and decided to leave the past behind, and we are about to sign a historic document,” he said through a translator. “The world will see a major change.”

Kim also thanked Trump for making “this meeting happen.”

To be sure, analysts had expected both Trump and Kim to sell the summit as a success regardless of outcome since both have much at stake. At the signing ceremony, Trump said he was “very proud” of what happened Tuesday and thanked Kim, reiterating that it was an “honor” to meet.

“I think our whole relationship with North Korea and the Korean peninsula is going to be a very much different situation than it has in the past,” Trump said.  “We’ve development a very special bond.”

* * *

The ceremony concluded a summit meeting that appeared impossible just one year ago, when both men’s threats against each other fueled an growing nuclear crisis. Just last summer, Trump mocked the North Korean leader as “Little Rocket Man” as the two exchanged barbs over their weapons programs. Kim responded by dismissing the president as a “mentally deranged dotard” who would “pay dearly” for his threats against Pyongyang.

Trump and Kim, however, appeared to have a friendly rapport during their day together at the Singapore island resort. “The past worked as fetters on our limbs, and the old prejudices and practices worked as obstacles on our way forward. But we overcame all of them, and we are here today,” Kim said through a translator as the two met for the first time.

The pair shook hands and met in a one-on-one setting before conferring with aides. The president even showed the North Korean leader the inside of his limousine after their sessions were over.

“It’s going great. We had a really fantastic meeting. A lot of progress. Really, very positive, I think better than anybody could have expected, top of the line, really good,” Trump said as he stood next to Kim after their meetings.

He then said that “we’re going to take care of a very big and very dangerous problem for the world”.

* * *
The summit marked the first stage in a process that the US, Japan, China and South Korea, and certainly the rest of the wor;d hope will lead to denuclearisation on the Korean peninsula. Trump is scheduled to hold a press conference at 4pm local time to discuss the negotiations.

As the two men walked through the Capello Hotel where the summit was held, Kim said to Trump that “many people in the world will think of this as a . . . form of fantasy . . . from a science fiction movie.”

Yet where the market and watchers may be disappointed is that despite the optimistic rhetoric, the summit did not appear to produce an ironclad denuclearization agreement or a peace treaty to end the Korean War — two possibilities Trump raised ahead of the talks.

Asked if Kim had agreed to denuclearize, Trump said, “we’re starting that process very quickly. Very, very quickly. Absolutely.” U.S. and North Korean officials worked down to the wire to bridge the gap between what the two nations say denuclearization means. The United States wants the complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization of North Korea, while Pyongyang wants disarmament across the Korean peninsula and other security assurances.

On the night before the meeting, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told reporters it would provide a “framework” for future negotiations.

As we noted earlier, critics said a summit that ended without a declaration on denuclearization would amount to a propaganda win for Kim, elevating him to legitimacy on the international stage. Regional experts are also skeptical Kim will give up any of his weapons regardless of a declaration, saying the Kim family playbook is for the regime to make promises, drag out its efforts to carry out those pledges as it gets concessions and then later renege altogether.

Trump did not answer a reporter’s question on whether the two spoke bout Otto Warmbier, the American student who died, shortly after his release from North Korean imprisonment in a coma, exactly one year ago. As a reminder, in the lead up to the summit, North Korea released three other Americans who had been held hostage. Pompeo brought them home last month on the second of his two visits with Kim to lay the groundwork for Tuesday.

After the ceremony, Trump and Kim walked back to the platform where they started the morning with a handshake, shaking hands once again. Responding to reporters, Trump, who prides himself on his dealmaking skills, called Kim a “worthy negotiator.”

“We had a terrific day, and we learned a lot about each other and about our countries,” Trump said. “I learned he’s a very talented man. I also learned that he loves his country very much.”

* * *

The market reaction to the signing of the “broad” letter has been muted, with the won falling and the USD/KRW climbing 0.2% to 1,077.45 after fluctuating between 1,072.85-1,078.10 as investors no longer expect more to happen for the day after the summit between Trump and Kim ended with the signed document, says Park Ok-hee, an economist at IBK Securities. South Korea’s currency had rallied for five consecutive days to June 7 before slipping on Friday as traders bought the won ahead of the event. The gains were the longest winning streak since early January.

“The market seems long on KRW ahead of the event,” says Masakatsu Fukaya, an EM currency trader at Mizuho Bank in Tokyo before the summit.“I am long KRW too. It’s hard to imagine a negative outcome”

Commenting on the modest increase in Euro Stoxx 50 futures, Bloomberg notes that President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un have signed a “very important” document, although we’re not sure yet what’s in it.

Some analysts were outright disappointed, such as Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and macro strategy at Mizuho Bank Ltd in Singapore who said that markets are struggling to find a reason to sustainably price in more risk-on as they want to see tangible outcomes: “Markets are saying OK, yes this a good thing. We’ve already priced in quite a bit.”

Varathan noted that this isn’t first time where we have a high-level agreement and some dispute thereafter; China trade talks is one famous example as Trump administration has got the penchant of getting quite frustrated quite quickly; he added that he is not quite sure yet how this will play out for the Korean won in the longer run because opening up North Korea could also mean South Korea would have to subsume some of the costs of integrating North Korea with the world.

Lee Seung-Hoon, head of equities at DB Asset Management in Seoul, said that “the agreement could be vague, as Trump said it is very comprehensive” adding that “there’s consensus in the market that it will be difficult to start a business in North Korea in the near term before the regime really starts shipping out its weapons.”

The bottom line came from Stephen Innes, head of trading for Asia Pacific at Oanda, who said that “there’s not much of a reaction as traders realize this is little more than the prologue to a long drawn out and lengthy process that could still go sideways. But this is good nonetheless for regional risk”.

end
Trump appealed to Kim by stating he could have the best hotels in the world 
(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump To Kim: “Instead Of Missiles, You Could Have The Best Hotels In The World”

And now we get to the real reasonbehind the US-North Korea summit.

In talk that was reminiscent of then-candidate Trump’s famous comparison of the Israel-Palestine conflict to a land deal during the Republican primary debates, Trump told a group of reporters Tuesday that he had floated the prospect of rebuilding North Korea’s coastline to feature beachfront hotels and other developments, allowing the developer-in-chief to relate to Kim Jong Un through perhaps his only life-long passion: Real estate.

Trump says he showed Kim an iPad that reportedly included details about how, instead of ballistic missiles, North Korea could have “some of the best hotels in the world.”

“They have great beaches…you see that whenever they’re exploding their cannons into the ocean. I said instead of doing that, you could have the best hotels in the world right there,” Trump said he told Kim.

“Think of it from a real estate perspective, you have South Korea, you have China – and they own the land in the middle. How bad is that?”

Trump’s comments followed the conclusion of the Singapore summit, which saw Trump and Kim sign a nonbinding letter of intent whereby Trump agreed to halt US-South Korean joint military drills while making other unspecified “security guarantees” while Kim “reaffirmed his firm and unwaivering commitment” to removing nuclear weapons from the Korean Peninsula. Trump added that he planned to invite Kim to the White House and the two leaders would meet “many times” for future talks.

CNN Breaking News

@cnnbrk

Trump said he brought Kim to the table by showing him what the future could look like should he choose the path of peace: “Instead of [testing missiles] you could have the best hotels in the world right there. Think of it from a real estate perspective” https://cnn.it/2sQ5NNY

Asked in a post-summit interview if the removal of US troops from South Korea was discussed, Trump said “we didn’t discuss that, no.” But Trump added that “we will be stopping the war games.”

Trump has repeatedly spoken of North Korea’s potential to be a “great” country, including – most recently – before he departed the G-7 Summit in Quebec for North Korea. As the Hill pointed out, Trump comments showed that his “experience as a real-estate developer was on full display.”

All of which begs the question:

shinebox@ljzaz

Have they broken ground on Trump Pyongyang yet?

asking for a colleague.

 

And some have imagined it…

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

end

c) REPORT ON CHINA/HONG KONG

Despite his success in North Korea, this morning, China redeploys missiles on the contested South China Sea island of Woody Island part of the Parcel islands

(courtesy zero hedge)

Despite US Threats, China Redeploys Missiles On Contested South China Sea Island

China has taken credit for pushing North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to agree to this week’s historic peace summit with the US, where the two sides will discuss terms for the possible removal of all nuclear weapons from the Korean peninsula. But as the world’s second-largest economy touts its efforts to ensure peace with the US, the simmering tensions in the Pacific, where the US military has repeatedly clashed with China’s navy and air force over China’s continued development of islands in the South China Sea – something China claims is essential for its national security.

And in the latest provocation, the South China Morning Post reported Monday that China has redeployed a series of missiles that it had removed last week from the disputed Woody Island, part of the Yongxing islands in the Paracels. An Israeli intelligence firm called ImageSat International captured satellite images purportedly showing the removal, and then redeployment, of the surface-to-air missiles sattioned on the Island by the Chinese military, according to the South China Morning PostThe missiles were returned to “exactly the same positions they were,” an indication that China didn’t even bother to hide its latest provocative act.

The first batch of photos, taken June 3, showed what appeared to be HQ-9 missiles being removed. The removal came as tensions flared between China and the US, with the US flying two nuclear-capable B-52 bombers over the Spratly Islands.

The Pentagon is also reportedly considering whether it should send more warships to the Taiwan Strait to step up security of island, which, according to the US one-China policy, is viewed as part of China. The US is also reportedly trying to rally its allies to increase their own military presence in the area – these allies include Britain and France.

Map

China

Of course, the fact that the missiles were restored isn’t exactly a surprise: China had said it would restore the missiles. “On the other hand, it may be a regular practice,” ISI said. “If so, within the next few days we may observe a redeployment in the same area.”

China

China

The news comes after China defied the US back in April by installing a radar scrambler on the Spratly Islands meant to sabotage the US “freeops” – or Freedom of Navigation missions – that were being ordered with increasing frequency by the Pentagon. About a month ago, the US threatened China with “consequences” if it didn’t remove missiles from the South China Sea (and now we all know how that turned out).

Top US Navy officials are beginning to view China with increasing skepticism, with Trump’s Ambassador to Australia – a former Navy admiral – warning that we must prepare for the possibility of all-out war with China within our lifetimes.

Even as China expanded its strategy of denying US military access to the South China Sea, the US continued to support its top economic rival, something that Bloomberg cited as one of the greatest “paradoxes” of US foreign policy in the 21st century.

This is just one of the many paradoxes of the U.S.-China relationship. Washington has underwritten the economic rise of its greatest long-term strategic rival by protecting the global commercial flows that have made that rival so wealthy. China, for its part, has been a free-rider on America’s provision of global stability even while challenging the U.S. ever more sharply in the Asia-Pacific.

This situation could not last forever, though, because it represented a vulnerability that a rising China would not tolerate indefinitely. After all, if the U.S. can secure the global commons, then it can also dominate and even restrict access to them if it so chooses.

And so, as the US-China relationship has become more contentious – particularly after the International Criminal Court ruled in favor of the Philippines, a direct repudiation of China’s territorial claims over the region. In response, China unveiled its “magical” island-building ship, which, as we pointed out late last year, it’s using to reconstruct islands in its new Pacific dominion. Measuring 140 meters, the Tiankun is the biggest dredger in Asia, with cutters and pumps capable of smashing the equivalent of three Olympic pools of rock an hour from the sea floor and shooting it up to 15 kilometers away to create artificial land. Since earlier this spring, Chinaand Taiwan have traded provocations by holding back-to-back live-fire military drills. Last week, Taiwan carried out the Han Kuang war drills. Even though the live-fire military drill began with the deadly crash of a General Dynamics F-16 Fighting Falcon jet on the first day, the exercise continued across the island as scheduled throughout the week.

This is just one of the many paradoxes of the U.S.-China relationship. Washington has underwritten the economic rise of its greatest long-term strategic rival by protecting the global commercial flows that have made that rival so wealthy. China, for its part, has been a free-rider on America’s provision of global stability even while challenging the U.S. ever more sharply in the Asia-Pacific.

This situation could not last forever, though, because it represented a vulnerability that a rising China would not tolerate indefinitely. After all, if the U.S. can secure the global commons, then it can also dominate and even restrict access to them if it so chooses.

For years, most experts believed that China’s military challenge to the U.S. was regional in nature — that it was confined to the Western Pacific. After decades of tacitly free-riding on America’s global power-projection capabilities, however, Beijing now is seeking the capabilities that will allow it to project its own military power well outside its regional neighborhood.

The fact that China is building up its military strength is hardly news, of course. The 1995-96 Taiwan crisis, during which the U.S. responded to Chinese intimidation of Taiwan by sending two carrier strike groups to the area, underscored to the Chinese leadership that America’s military dominance gave it the capability to intervene at will even in China’s own backyard.

Since then, Beijing has been developing the capabilities — advanced fighter jets, anti-ship ballistic missiles, and stealthy diesel-electric attack submarines among them — meant not just to give it leverage over its East and Southeast Asian neighbors, but also to prevent the U.S. from intervening effectively in their defense.

This effort to build what are known as “anti-access/area-denial” capabilities has borne fruit, and the U.S. will now face high and continually growing obstacles to defending Taiwan or other partners and allies in the event of conflict with China.

Meanwhile, following years of rapid economic growth, China has been stepping up its defense spending, leaving it with the second-largest defense budget in the world.

Defense

Given all of this, one can’t help but wonder whether the burgeoning trade war between the US and China really might devolve into a military conflict, just as famous investors like David Tepper have publicly speculated about.

end

the Senate adds a ZTE killing deal amendment to its defense bill..that which will no doubt anger China

(courtesy zerohedge)

Senate Adds ZTE-Deal-Killing Amendment To “Must Pass” Defense Bill

As was widely expected, a group of senators have successfully attached an amendment that would effectively kill the Trump administration’s deal with Chinese telecoms firm ZTE to a “must-pass” defense authorization bill, according to Axios– the latest sign that the movement to kill the deal is gaining momentum, even among Republicans who rarely oppose the president. The measure has found support among a bipartisan group of Senators who claim that the ZTE deal poses potential national security problems, according to Democratic Sen. Chris Van Hollen, who introduced the amendment alongside Republican Sen. Tom Cotton. In addition, Van Hollen maintains that the ZTE deal is “genuinely a bad deal” that must be overturned.

The amendment to kill the deal, which was first unveiled last Thursday shortly after Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross announced the administration had worked out a deal to save ZTE, would reimpose the White House’s original ban on ZTE buying components from US firms (what some have described as a “death sentence” for the company). Still, the bill as amendment has a long way to go to make it out of the Senate, let alone the House, where it will likely face more intense opposition.

The White House announced the initial ban on ZTE buying parts from US firms in April, after the company was found to have violated a settlement originally imposed over ZTE’s sales to Iran in defiance of US sanctions. As part of the original settlement, ZTE had agreed to fire certain senior managers and withhold bonuses from others. But the company didn’t follow through with either promise.

ZTE

Van Hollen told Axios that the administration has resisted Congress’s push to make the ZTE penalty permanent almost since the beginning. After discovering that Van Hollen and others were planning a bill to make ZTE’s punishment permanent, the administration “wanted to flout Congress’s intent and decided to put its foot down on the accelerator” and announced its deal before the original amendment could be brought to a vote. President Trump first declared his intention to help save ZTE late last month with a tweet about “too many jobs in China lost.” Still, since Trump’s inauguration, only a handful of Republicans have voted against his agenda.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

President Xi of China, and I, are working together to give massive Chinese phone company, ZTE, a way to get back into business, fast. Too many jobs in China lost. Commerce Department has been instructed to get it done!

But lawmakers aren’t the only ones who are skeptical of ZTE. For years, defense officials have accused the telecoms giant and other Chinese firms of manufacturing equipment that could be used to spy on Americans, according to the Wall Street Journal.

“China is using its telecommunications companies as means to conduct espionage,” said Sen. John Cornyn (R., Texas). “We need to solve the larger puzzle of trade and national security in addition to the enforcement action for the violation of sanctions.”

Meanwhile, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross insisted the Trump administration’s treatment of ZTE isn’t part of a broader quid pro quo meant to achieve a better trade deal with China. Instead, Trump and his allies have insisted it was a gesture of goodwill to thank China for helping organize the Singapore summit with North Korea. Peter Navarro, a White House trade advisor, described the ZTE deal as a tough deal that would allow the company a last chance – but not without substantial cost.

“The president did this as a personal favor to the president of China as a way of showing some goodwill for bigger efforts, such as the one here in Singapore,” Mr. Navarro said on Fox News Sunday. “But it will be three strikes you’re out for ZTE. And everybody understands that within this administration. So they’re on notice.”

Per terms of the settlement, ZTE would pay a penalty of $1.3 billion (plus place another $400 million in escrow to be seized should the company again fail to hold up its end of the bargain). The company would also be forced to accept – and pay for – a team of compliance officers that will be led by a “special independent compliance coordinator” who will report jointly to ZTE’s CEO, its board and the Commerce Department. The company will be forced to pay for the monitors for ten years. The company will also be required replace its entire board of directors and senior leadership team. In exchange, ZTE will resume buying products from US firms.

But if the measure does pass, we imagine it will set back the behind-the-scenes trade negotiations with China, despite Ross’s insistence that the ZTE deal was “quite separate” from all that. Meanwhile, ZTE shares are set to begin trading in Hong Kong on Wednesday after a nearly two-month suspension, according to WSJ.

end

4. EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

ITALY/SPAIN

A stranded migrant ship which was originally headed for Italy, has run out of food as an Italian rescue vessel takes the refugees to Spain

(courtesy zerohedge)

Stranded Migrant Ship Runs Out Of Food In

Mediterranean; Italian Rescue Vessel To Take

Refugees To Spain

Hours after refusing Spain’s offer to dock, an NGO carrying 629 shipwrecked North African migrants says that Italy has finally agreed to address the refugees stuck in the Mediterranean amid a dire food situation and bad weather preventing them from diverting to Spain – according to a Tuesday tweet by the group SOS Mediterranee. Italian authorities will transfer the migrants aboard a search and rescue vessel and take them to Valencia, reads the tweet.

The NGO’s ship MV Aquarius has been involved in a multi-day standoff with Italy after the country’s new Interior Minister, Matteo Salvini, took the unprecedented decision to close Italy’s ports to refugees after years of unchecked migration – warning that “the good times for illegals are over.”

Looks like all migrants have to do is wait off Italy’s coast until they run out of supplies.

 

On Monday, Spain’s Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez offered the stranded vessel safe harbor, however the Aquarius refused – with the noting over Twitter that the trip across the Mediterranean would take “several days of sailing,” and that “With so many people on board and weather conditions worsening the situation can become critical.”

The group also said they had run out of food, tweeting “the stocks will be enough for just another meal tomorrow.”

The ship is stationary waiting to receive instructions from the competent maritime authorities,” the group said, demanding that “The Italian maritime authorities must quickly find a solution for the safety of the 629 shipwrecked people.

Earlier Monday, the Aquarius received 950 water bottles and food (pasta and snacks) from a Maltese Navy vessel.

View image on TwitterView image on TwitterView image on Twitter

SOS MEDITERRANEE ITA@SOSMedItalia

UPDATE 2 La nave ha appena ricevuto da un’imbarcazione della Marina militare maltese un rifornimento di acqua (950 bottiglie) e cibo (pasta e snack).

As we reported previously, the Aquarius took the migrants, including 123 unaccompanied minors, 11 other children and seven pregnant women, toward Italy, but the country’s shadow leader, Salvini, barred it from docking and said it should go to Malta.

And while Malta refused and Spain accepted, the migrants will continue on to Italy – safe and sound. All they had to do was wait!

8. EMERGING MARKET

ARGENTINA

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00 am

Euro/USA 1.1788 UP .0014/ REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ SPAIN VS CATALONIA/REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES MIXED /

USA/JAPAN YEN 110.23   DOWN 0.154  (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/SIGNALS U TURN WITH INCREASED NEGATIVITY IN NIRP/JAPAN OUT OF WEAPONS TO FIGHT ECONOMIC DISASTER/

GBP/USA 1.3392 UP  0.0020  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3011  UP .0025 (CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 14 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1781; / Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED UP 27.02 POINTS OR 0.89%  /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 39.36 POINTS OR 0.13% /AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP .13%EUROPEAN BOURSES  ALL MIXED /

The NIKKEI: this TUESDAY morning CLOSED UP 74.31 OR 0.33%

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED ALL MIXED 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 39.36 POINTS OR 0.13%  / SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 27.02 POINTS OR 0.89%  /

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP .13%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 74,31 POINTS OR 0.33%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1297.60

silver:$16.86

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.96% !!! UP 0 IN POINTS from THURSDAY night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

The 30 yr bond yield 3.10 UP 0  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early  TUESDAY morning: 93.58 DOWN 2  CENT(S) from MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

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And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.99% DOWN 1  in basis point(s) yield from MONDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.05%  UP 0/10   in basis points yield from MONDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.45% DOWN 0  IN basis point yield from MONDAY/

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.86  UP 2  POINTS in basis point yield from MONDAY/

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 142 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS TO +.490%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY

END

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IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1781 UP .0009(Euro UP 9 Basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/

USA/Japan: 110,23 DOWN 0.165 Yen UP 17 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3407 UP .0038( POUND UP 38 BASIS POINTS)

USA/Canada 1.2994 UP  .0008 Canadian dollar DOWN 8 Basis points AS OIL ROSE TO $66.41

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This afternoon, the Euro was UP 9 to trade at 1.1781

The Yen ROSE to 110239 for a GAIN of 16 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE

The POUND GAINED 38 basis points, trading at 1.3407/

The Canadian dollar LOST 8 basis points to 1.2994/ WITH WTI OIL RISING TO : $66.41

The USA/Yuan closed AT 6.4028
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.050%  UP 0/10  IN BASIS POINTS / yield/
Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 0   IN basis points from MONDAY at 2.97 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.10  DOWN 1  in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 93.59  DOWN 2 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 1:00 PM PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 33.62 POINTS OR 0.43%
German Dax :CLOSED UP 0.61 OR 0.00%
Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 20.54 POINTS OR 0.36%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 16.10 POINTS OR 0.16%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 33.56 POINTS OR 0.15%

The Dow closed DOWN 1.58 POINTS OR 0.01%

NASDAQ closed UP  43.87 OR .57 % 4.00 PM EST

WTI Oil price; 66.41  1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 76.36 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE CROSS: 63.00 UP 16/100 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE LOWER BY 16 BASIS PTS)

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES TO +.490% FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:30 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:$66.23

BRENT: $75.64

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.96% the dropping yields signify markets are in turmoil

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.09%/

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1748 DOWN .0024  (DOWN 24 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:110.34 DOWN 0.053 (YEN UP 5 BASIS POINTS/ .

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 93.81 UP 20 cent(s)/dangerous as the HIGHER dollar IS DESTROYING THE EMERGING MARKETS.

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.3372 UP 0.0013  (FROM YESTERDAY NIGHT UP 13  POINTS)

Canadian dollar: 1.3016 UP 30 BASIS pts

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: +490%


VOLATILITY INDEX:  12.30  CLOSED  DOWN 0.05

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.332%  .

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

Stocks & Bonds Shrug At Historic Summit,

Surging Inflation, Sky-High Optimism

An historic Summit in Singapore, near record high business optimism, 7 year high surge in consumer prices, PTJ saying markets may meltup at some point, and bonds & stocks go nowhere…

The S&P and Dow struggled to stay green all day…but when 3pmET hit – markets were panic-bid… just because

 

Trannies remain best on the week…

 

Tech outperformed Financials once again…

 

Most eyes were on AT&T and TWX ahead of the judge’s decision tonight…

 

Treasury yields remained in a very narrow range once again with the long-end modestly outperforming the short-end ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC…

 

10Y yields made an early run towards 3.00% again but failed and ended unchanged…

 

But while overall yields didn’t move much the yield curve tumbled to a fresh 11 year flat…

 

The Dollar Index spiked on headlines that Jay Powell is planning on a press conference at every FOMC Meeting… This broke the dollar closing price out of its 18-day tight range)… (1168, 1170, 1169, 1168, 1169, 1168, 1171, 1173, 1177, 1170, 1171, 1172, 1171, 1172, 1170, 1170, 1170, 1172, 1176…)

 

EM FX slid for the 2nd day…

 

But ARS and BRL both gained on the day amid interventions…

 

Cryptocurrencies crashed ahead of the US equity market close…with Bitcoin now back below $6,500…

Bitcoin is back at its lowest since Feb 2018…which is perhaps the driver of the plunge as it breaks April support lows…

It’s been an ugly few days…

 

 

Despite USD strength, commodities did a whole lot of nothing…

 

Gold fell back below $1300 into the close today…

 

Finally, after February’s rapid PANIC correction, the markets heading back into EUPHORIA territory once again

 

i)MARKET DATA FOR TODAY
a)This is not what the Fed wants:  higher consumer prices surging at its fastest pace and yet real wage growth is slumping.  They want the other way around
(courtesy zerohedge)

Consumer Prices Surge At Fastest Pace Since

2011, Real Wage Growth Slumps

Last night’s Singaporean show was the prelude to the rest of the week’s real action – central banks – and nothing drives The Fed more than inflation anxiety as exhibited by Core CPI this morning… and it printed hot.

For the 32nd consecutive month, the consensus estimate on the street was +0.2% MoM – and expectations were met – pushing the headline CPI to+2.8% YoY (as expected) – the highest since December 2011…

Core CPI also rose to +2.1% YoY (as expected) – the highest since Jan 2017.

The indexes for new vehicles, education and communication, and tobacco increased in May, while the indexes for household furnishing and operations, and used cars and trucks fell. The indexes for apparel, recreation, and personal care were unchanged.

The medical care index increased 0.2 percent in May, with the index for prescription drugs increasing 1.4 percent, the index for hospital services increasing 0.5 percent, and the index for  physicians’ services increasing 0.1 percent. The new vehicles index increased 0.3 percent in May, while the index for motor vehicle insurance increased 0.4 percent after falling 0.2 percent in April. The indexes for tobacco and for education and communication also increased.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 2.2 percent over the past 12 months, after increasing 2.1 percent in the 12 months ending March and April, and the medical care index rose 2.4 percent. Indexes that declined over the past 12 months include those for new vehicles, airline fares, used cars and trucks, and  communication.

And while rent inflation remained the same, shelter index rose 3.5 percent over the last 12 months

And while prices are soaring,real wage growth is slumping...

Real average hourly earnings were unchanged YoY – the weakest since Feb 2017.

Over to you Jay!

end

As David Stockman promised, the budget deficit will begin to rise in fiscal 2018 and already after 8 months it is 530 billion dollars. And this is before the big spending promised by Trump

Naturally the interest component is increasing due to the higher debt held at 21 trilllion dollars

We will no doubt hit 1.2 trillion deficit by next year coupled with 600 billion of bonds that must be purchased due to the Fed rolling off these amounts of bonds.  The USA must raise a monstrous 1.8 trillion dollars in bond issuance.

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

US Budget Deficit Hits $530 Billion In 8 Months,

As Spending On Interest Explodes

The US is starting to admit that it has a spending problem.

According to the latest Monthly Treasury Statement, in May, the US collected $217BN in receipts – consisting of $93BN in individual income tax, $103BN in social security and payroll tax, $3BN in corporate tax and $18BN in other taxes and duties- a drop of 9.7% from the $240.4BN collected last March and a clear reversal from the recent increasing trend…

 

… even as Federal spending surged, rising 10.7% from $328.8BN last March to $363.9BN last month.

… where the money was spent on social security ($83BN), defense ($56BN), Medicare ($53BN), Interest on Debt ($32BN), and Other ($141BN).

 

The surge in spending led to a May budget deficit of $146.8 billion, above the consensus estimate of $144BN, a swing from a surplus of $214.3 billion in April and far larger than the deficit of $88.4 billion recorded in May of 2017. This was the biggest March budget deficit since the financial crisis.

The May deficit brought the cumulative 2018F budget deficit to over $531bn during the first eight month of the fiscal year; as a reminder the deficit is expect to increase further amid the tax and spending measures, and rise above $1 trillion.

The red ink for May deficit brought the deficit for the year to-date to $532.2 billion. Most Wall Street firms forecast a deficit for fiscal 2018 of about $850 billion, at which point things get… worse. As we showed In a recent report, CBO has also significantly raised its deficit projection over the 2018-2028 period.

But while out of control government spending is clearly a concern, an even bigger problem is what happens to not only the US debt, which recently surpassed $21 trillionbut to the interest on that debt, in a time of rising interest rates.

As the following chart shows, US government Interest Payments are already rising rapidly, and just hit an all time high in Q1 2018.

 

Interest costs are increasing due to three factors: an increase in the amount of outstanding debt, higher interest rates and higher inflation. A rise in the inflation rate boosts the upward adjustment to the principal of TIPS, increasing the amount of debt on which the Treasury pays interest. For fiscal 2018 to-date, TIPS’ principal has been increased by boosted by $25.8 billion, an increase of 54.9% over the comparable period in 2017.

The bigger question is with short-term rates still in the mid-1% range, what happens when they reach 3% as the Fed’s dot plot suggests it will?

* * *

In a note released by Goldman after the blowout in the deficit was revealed, the bank once again revised its 2018 deficit forecast higher, and now expect the federal deficit to reach $825bn (4.1% of GDP) in FY2018 and to continue to rise, reaching $1050bn (5.0%) in FY2019, $1125bn (5.4%) in FY2020, and $1250bn (5.5%) in FY2021.


Goldman also notes that it expects that on its current financing schedule the Treasury still faces a financing gap of around $300bn in FY2019, rising to around $750bn by FY2021, and will thus need to raise auction sizes substantially over the next couple of years to accommodate higher deficits.

What does this mean for interest rates? The bank’s economic team explains:

The increase in Treasury issuance and the ongoing unwind of QE should put upward pressure on long-term interest rates. On issuance, the economic research literature suggests as a rule-of-thumb that a 1pp increase in the deficit/GDP ratio raises 10-year Treasury yields by 10-25bp. Multiplying the midpoint of this range by the roughly 1.5pp increase in the deficit due to the recent tax and spending bills implies a 25bp increase in the 10-year yield. On the Fed’s balance sheet reduction, our estimates suggest that about 40-45bp of upward pressure on the 10-year term premium remains.

And here a problem emerges, because while Goldman claims that “the deficit path is known to markets, but academic research suggests these effects might not be fully priced immediately… the balance sheet normalization plan is known too, but portfolio balance effect models imply that its impact should be gradual” the bank also admits that “the precise timing of these effects is uncertain.”

What this means is that it is quite likely that Treasurys fail to slide until well after they should only to plunge orders of magnitude more than they are expected to, in the process launching the biggest VaR shock in world history, because as a reminder, as of mid-2016, a 1% increase in rates would result in a $2.1 trillion loss to government bond P&L.

Meanwhile, as rates blow out, US debt is expected to keep rising, and  somehow hit $30 trillion by 2028

… without launching a debt crisis in the process.

SWAMP STORIES
For your enjoyment:  Stormy Daniel’s lawyer now blames the Russians for smearing him
(courtesy zerohedge)

Stormy Daniels’ Lawyer Now Blames Russia For

Smearing Him

The attorney for adult film star Stormy Daniels is now blaming the Russian government, without any proof, for “trying to plant damaging stories about him in media outlets,” suggesting that he has been to Moscow and had a liaison with multiple Russian women, according to the Daily Beast.

Avenatti did not offer concrete proof to support the claim, but said two media figures and a high-ranking American intelligence official have all told him about the alleged Russian effort.

They’re doing it because they see me as a threat, a considerable threat,” he said. “If we weren’t a threat, none of this would be happening.”

Avenatti said Russians have also been saying he previously represented Russian and Ukrainian legal interests before the U.S. government. He said he has never represented any Russian or Ukrainian entities. –Daily Beast

“They were trying to claim that I too had taken a trip to Moscow,” Avenatti said. “I’ve never been to Moscow in my life, I’ve never traveled to Russia in my life.”

“They suggested that I had had a liaison with multiple women in Russia,” he added. “I found that to be rather ironic.”

Since representing Daniels, whose real name is Stephanie Clifford, skeletons in Avenatti’s closet have been pouring out – in large part due to reporting by the Daily Caller as well as citizen journalists.

Questions have emerged over who’s funding Avenattihow he was privy to Trump attorney Michael Cohen’s bank records – and how exactly did he obtain banking transactions for two men also named Michael Cohen, who he wrongly accused in a seven-page “dossier” released this week. 

Other questions have come to light over a bankrupt coffee chain Avenatti left in smoldering ashes with $5 million in unpaid taxes to the IRS, an alleged $160,000 owed for unpaid coffee, and over 45 lawsuits filed in connection with the failed venture.

Bitter coffee deal

As outlined in a legal complaint seeking Avenatti’s disbarment, the balding provocateur “bought a company out of bankruptcy and then used it for a “pump and dump” scheme to deprive federal and state taxing authorities of millions of dollars,” which left over $5 million in unpaid taxes to the IRS.

Avenatti purchased Tully’s out of bankruptcy in 2013, in partnership with actor Patrick Dempsey, who is best known for his role as Derek “McDreamy” Shepherd in the TV show “Grey’s Anatomy.” Dempsey sued Avenatti in August 2013 to break off the partnership.

Since then, Tully’s has significantly struggled. More than 45 lawsuits have been filed against the chain’s parent company, which Avenatti says he no longer owns. In 2017, the company owed roughly $5 million in unpaid taxes to the Internal Revenue Service. And, in March, the coffee chain abruptly closed all locations. –Business Insider

Robert Barnes@Barnes_Law

Not everybody owes $5M+ in federal taxes…meet Michael Avenatti…

According to Dempsey, Avenatti was supposed to bankroll the deal through his company, Global Baristas, but didn’t have the funds – instead borrowing $2 million at an “exorbitant” 15% to close on the transaction. The actor sued to get out of the partnership after he claimed “Avenatti concealed the Loan and the Security Agreement from Dempsey.”

Since 2013, 46 cases have been filed against Global Baristas US LLC and its parent company, Global Baristas LLC in Washington’s King County Superior Court.

Avenatti’s estranged wife also said under oath he’s “emotionally abusive” and “vindictive.”

Lisa Storie-Avenatti said under oath that Michael Avenatti threatened to “burn” all of their money on their divorce, and would call the police to arrest both of them so that child protective services would take their son into protective custody. Storie-Avenatti’s attorneys argued in court that this was further proof that Avenatti “is angry and vindictive, and has no regard for emotional harm caused to his son, his daughter or to Lisa.” 

In a sworn court declaration TheDCNF reviewed, Lisa Storie-Avenatti asked a California court to grant her exclusive use of their marital home after she said her husband threatened and emotionally abused her. Both parties now dispute this account, as they finalize their divorce.

Despite these recent denials, Storie-Avenatti alleged her husband threatened to call the police and get them both arrested, which would cause her to lose custody of their son and put him into the hands of the state’s child protective services. –TheDCNF

Avenatti and his estranged wife both dispute her testimony – marking the second time he has been accused of wrongdoing, only for his accuser to retract their claim after the Daily Caller reached out for comment.

end
Oh this is very funny!! Mueller scrambles to limit evidence after the indicted Russians actually show up in court!!!
(courtesy zerohedge)

Mueller Scrambles To Limit Evidence After Indicted Russians Actually Show Up In Court

Special Counsel Robert Mueller is scrambling to limit pretrial evidence handed over to a Russian company he indicted in February over alleged meddling in the 2016 U.S. election, according to Bloomberg.

Mueller asked a Washington federal Judge for a protective order that would prevent the delivery of copious evidence to lawyers for Concord Management and Consulting, LLC, one of three Russian firms and 13 Russian nationals. The indictment accuses the firm of producing propaganda, pretending to be U.S. activists online and posting political content on social media in order to sow discord among American voters.

The special counsel’s office argues that the risk of the evidence leaking or falling into the hands of foreign intelligence services, especially Russia, would assist the Kremlin’s active “interference operations” against the United States.

“The substance of the government’s evidence identifies uncharged individuals and entities that the government believes are continuing to engage in interference operations like those charged in the present indictment,” prosecutors wrote.

Improper disclosure would tip foreign intelligence services about how the U.S. operates, which would “allow foreign actors to learn of those techniques and adjust their conduct, thus undermining ongoing and future national security operations,” according to the filing.

The evidence includes thousands of documents involving U.S. residents not charged with crimes who prosecutors say were unwittingly recruited by Russian defendants and co-conspirators to engage in political activity in the U.S., prosecutors wrote. –Bloomberg

Mueller also accused Concord of “knowingly and intentionally” conspiring to interfere with the election by using social media to disparage Hillary Clinton and support Donald Trump.

And Concord Management decided to fight it… 

As Powerline notes, Mueller probably didn’t see that coming – and the indictment itself was perhaps nothing more than a PR stunt to bolster the Russian interference narrative.

I don’t think anyone (including Mueller) anticipated that any of the defendants would appear in court to defend against the charges. Rather, the Mueller prosecutors seem to have obtained the indictment to serve a public relations purpose, laying out the case for interference as understood by the government and lending a veneer of respectability to the Mueller Switch Project.

One of the Russian corporate defendants nevertheless hired counsel to contest the charges. In April two Washington-area attorneys — Eric Dubelier and Kate Seikaly of the Reed Smith firm — filed appearances in court on behalf of Concord Management and Consulting. Josh Gerstein covered that turn of events for Politico here. –Powerline Blog

Politico’s Gerstein notes that by defending against the charges, “Concord could force prosecutors to turn over discovery about how the case was assembled as well as evidence that might undermine the prosecution’s theories.”

In a mad scramble to put the brakes on the case, Mueller’s team tried to delay the trial – saying that Concord never formally accepted the court summons related to the case, wrapping themselves in a “cloud of confusion” as Powerline puts it. “Until the Court has an opportunity to determine if Concord was properly served, it would be inadvisable to conduct an initial appearance and arraignment at which important rights will be communicated and a plea entertained.”

The Judge, Dabney Friedrich – a Trump appointee, didn’t buy it – denying Mueller a delay in the high-profile trial.

The Russians hit back – filing a response to let the court know that “[Concord] voluntarily appeared through counsel as provided for in [the Federal Rules of Criminal Procedure], and further intends to enter a plea of not guilty. [Concord] has not sought a limited appearance nor has it moved to quash the summons. As such, the briefing sought by the Special Counsel’s motion is pettifoggery.

And the Judge agreed

A federal judge has rejected special counsel Robert Mueller’s request to delay the first court hearing in a criminal case charging three Russian companies and 13 Russian citizens with using social media and other means to foment strife among Americans in advance of the 2016 U.S. presidential election.

In a brief order Saturday evening, U.S. District Court Judge Dabney Friedrich offered no explanation for her decision to deny a request prosecutors made Friday to put off the scheduled Wednesday arraignment for Concord Management and Consulting, one of the three firms charged in the case. –Politico

In other words, Mueller was denied the opportunity to kick the can down the road, forcing him to produce the requested evidence or withdraw the indictment, potentially jeopardizing the PR aspect of the entire “Trump collusion” probe.

And now Mueller is pointing to Russian “interference operations” in a last-ditch effort.

Of note, Facebook VP of advertising, Rob Goldman, tossed a major hand grenade in the “pro-Trump” Russian meddling narrative in February when he fired off a series of tweets the day of the Russian indictments. Most notably, Goldman pointed out that the majority of advertising purchased by Russians on Facebook occurred after the election, were hardly pro-Trump,and they was designed to “sow discord and divide Americans”, something which Americans have been quite adept at doing on their own ever since the Fed decided to unleash a record class, wealth, income divide by keeping capital markets artificially afloat at any cost.

Rob Goldman

@robjective

The majority of the Russian ad spend happened AFTER the election. We shared that fact, but very few outlets have covered it because it doesn’t align with the main media narrative of Tump and the election. https://newsroom.fb.com/news/2017/10/hard-questions-russian-ads-delivered-to-congress/ 

Rob Goldman

@robjective

The main goal of the Russian propaganda and misinformation effort is to divide America by using our institutions, like free speech and social media, against us. It has stoked fear and hatred amongst Americans. It is working incredibly well. We are quite divided as a nation.

ON  WEDNESDAY night

HARVEY

 

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