August 29/GOLD HOLDS AND IS DOWN ONLY $2.90 TO $1205.90 BUT UP 6.00 DOLLARS FROM LAST NIGHT’S ACCESS MARKET/SILVER IS DOWN 10 CENTS TO $14.74/CRACKS ARE STARTING TO APPEAR INSIDE THE IRANIAN GOVERNMENT AS KEY OFFICIALS WERE SACKED/BOTH THE TURKISH LIRA AND THE ARGENTINIAN PESO COLLAPSE AS BOTH COUNTRIES FAIL TO SUPPORT THEIR CURRENCY WITH MEASURES/BRAZIL HAS A HUGE INFRASTRUCTURE MESS AS THE TRUCKING STRIKES KILLED THEIR ECONOMY/HUGE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT/

 

GOLD: $1205.90 DOWN  $2.90 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver:   $14.74   DOWN 10 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

Closing access prices:

Gold $1207.00

silver: $14.77

It was extremely noteworthy today that under a low key, the Central Bank of India added 8 tonnes of gold to its official level and thus their total holdings: 566.00  The Central bank has been forever trying to thwart its citizens from buying gold and now they do? Something is up!!

 

 

For comex gold:

AUGUST/

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR AUGUST CONTRACT:  62 NOTICE(S) FOR 6200  oz 

TOTAL NOTICES SO FAR 2386 FOR 238600 OZ (7.4214 tonnes)

For silver:

AUGUST

1 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

5,000 OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 1211 for 6,055,000 oz

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Bitcoin: BID $7026/OFFER $7114: DOWN  $12(morning)

Bitcoin: BID/ $7005/offer $7090: DOWN  $33(CLOSING/5 PM)

end

First Shanghai gold fix comes at 10 pm est

The second Shanghai gold fix:  2:15 pm

First Shanghai gold fix gold: 10 pm est: $1211.11

NY price  at the same time:$1203.70

 

PREMIUM TO NY SPOT: $7.41

XX

Second gold fix early this morning: $ 1210.29

 

 

USA gold at the exact same time:$1203.00

 

PREMIUM TO NY SPOT:  $7.29

 

China is controlling the gold market

WE WILL NOT PROVIDE LONDON FIXES AS THEY ARE NOT ACCURATE AS TO WHAT IS GOING ON AT THE SAME TIME FRAME.

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST SURPRISINGLY FELL BY HUMONGOUS 8389 CONTRACTS FROM 235,718 DOWN TO 227,329 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S TINY  5 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. WE MUST HAVE HAD CONTINUAL BANKER AND SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING TO A HIGH DEGREE!! 

TODAY WE MOVED A LITTLE AWAY FROM LAST WEEK’S RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY(WELL OVER 30 MILLION OZ AT THE COMEX FOR JULY AND OVER 6 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST) AS WELL AS CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

2580 EFP’S FOR SEPT. , 494 EFP’S FOR DECEMBER AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 3344 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1881 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 3344 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 16.72MILLION OZ AND ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 5 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR THE JUNE/2018 COMEX DELIVERY MONTH. (5.420 MILLION OZ)  30.370 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN JULY, AND NOW 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST.

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF JULY: 

34,105 CONTRACTS (FOR 21 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 34,105 CONTRACTS) OR 170.525 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1624 CONTRACTS OR 8.120 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF JULY:  170.525 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 24.28% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:           2,002.22    MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018:                                              236.879     MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018:                                               244.95        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018:                                        236.67         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL 2018:                                           385.75         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MAY 2018:                                             210.05         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JUNE 2018:                                           345.43         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JULY 2018:                                            172.84          MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 8389 DESPITE THE TINY 5 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX YESTERDAY. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 3344  CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE LOST A GIGANTIC SIZED: 5045 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 3344 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH A DECREASE OF 8389  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS LOSS OF DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A SMALL 5 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.84 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN THE BIG JULY DELIVERY MONTH OF SLIGHTLY OVER 30 MILLION OZ AND NOW IN AUGUST ANOTHER BIG 6.065 MILLION OZ IN A NON ACTIVE MONTH. IT SURE LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER FAILED BANKER AND SPECULATOR SHORT COVERING EXERCISE AS THESE GUYS ARE SCRAMBLING TO COVER THEIR HUGE SHORTFALL IN SILVER.

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.153 MILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 164% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT AUGUST MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: NOTICE(S) FOR 5,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78

AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   ) AND NOW FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ.
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 3059 CONTRACTS UP TO 479,283 WITH THE LOSS IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/YESTERDAY’S TRADING (A FALL IN PRICE OF $1.60)THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 8260 CONTRACTS:

AUGUST HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 0 CONTRACTS, OCTOBER HAD 680 EFP’S ISSUED AND, DECEMBER HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 7580 CONTACTS  AND  ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 479,283. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN A VERY GOOD OI GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5,201 CONTRACTS:  3059 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 8260 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN:  5,201 CONTRACTS OR 520,100 OZ = 16.17 TONNES.  AND ALL OF THIS STRONG DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A  LOSS IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ YESTERDAY TO THE TUNE OF $1.60.

 

 

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 2507 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE : 141,370 CONTRACTS OR 14,137,000 OZ OR 439.72 TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 6731 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY OR 673,100 OZ/ TRADING DAY),,

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 21 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 439.72 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 439.72/2550 x 100% TONNES =  17.24% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN JULY ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE:     5,157.40*  TONNES   *SURPASSED ANNUAL PROD’N

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018:           653.22  TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018:         649.45 TONNES  (20 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018:             741.89 TONNES  (22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR APRIL 2018:                 713.84 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MAY 2018:                   693.80 TONNES ( 22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JUNE 2018                      650.71 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JULY 2018                       605.5 TONNES     (21 TRADING DAYS)

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 3059 WITH THE  LOSS IN PRICING ($1.60 THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) // .  WE ALSO HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 8260 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 8260 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A GOOD GAIN OF 5,201 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

8260 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 3059 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 16.17 TONNES). ..AND THIS GOOD DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE  LOSS OF $1.60 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX!!!.

 

 

we had: 62 notice(s) filed upon for 620oz of gold at the comex.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD DOWN $2.90  TODAY: / 

THE CROOKS WERE AT IT AGAIN: ANOTHER 4.71 TONNES OF GOLD ARE WITHDRAWN FROM THE GLD

 

 

 

/GLD INVENTORY   759.87 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 759.87 tonnes.

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER DOWN 10  CENTS TODAY

NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ.

 

NOTE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GLD AND SLV: THE CROOKS CAN RAID GOLD BECAUSE THEY DO HAVE SOME PHYSICAL.  THEY DO NOT RAID SILVER PROBABLY BECAUSE THERE IS NO REAL SILVER INVENTORIES BEHIND THEM

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 8389 CONTRACTS from 235.718 DOWN TO  227,329  AND MOVING A LITTLE AWAY FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST WEEK AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..WE MUST HAVE HAD BOTH BANKER AND HEDGE FUND SHORT COVERING OCCURRING TO A HIGH DEGREE. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

0 EFP CONTRACTS FOR AUGUST., 2580 EFP CONTRACTS FOR SEPTEMBER, 494 CONTRACTS FOR DECEMBER AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3344 CONTRACTS . EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 4940 CONTRACTS TO THE 3344 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A NET LOSS OF 5045 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 25.23 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY AND NOW ANOTHER STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST... AND ALL OF THIS HUGE PHYSICAL DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A  5 CENT PRICING LOSS AT THE SILVER COMEX!!!!

 

RESULT: A GIGANTIC SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE SMALL 5 CENT PRICING GAIN THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING YESTERDAY. BUT WE ALSO HAD A  GOOD SIZED 3344 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR AUGUST, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

) WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed DOWN 8.69 POINTS OR 0.31%   /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 64.82 POINTS OR 0.23%/   / The Nikkei closed UP 34.75 POINTS OR 0.16%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.64%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8284 AS POBC RESUMES SLIGHTLY ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER/Oil UP to 68.86 dollars per barrel for WTI and 76.19 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  =MIXED //.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED  DOWN AT 6.8284 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8315: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOT DOING TOO GOOD   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING MUCH WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA/

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C/  CHINA

A very important read…China’s shadow banking system has now collapsed as leaders are asking the local government to borrow from the muni market.  That basically shuts out most of these government facilities.  Infrastructure was the key to Chinese development and that is now going by the wyside

( zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)IRAN

The following is quite interesting:  cracks are starting to appear at the top of Iran’s government as now the key figure Rouhani has been censured.  Not only that but other top officials have been sacked.

The problem is that we are left with hard lines and nobody with cooler heads are prevailing over there. The Iranian riyal is now 122,000 per one on the black market and inflation is running rampant.  The uSA is doing their thing as they are destroying emerging markets with their high external debt denominated in dollars.

( zerohedge)

iii)TURKEY

The central bank cuts off borrowing from the banks but that is not enough to stop the faltering Turkish lira now at 9:30 am at 6.4525/  Right now the yield on Turkish bonds is 20%..they need 25% to stop the bleeding

( zerohedge)

 

iii)Tunisia

The next country on the list to fall will be Tunisia has these guys have a huge external debt of 80% to GDP and their dinar is falling like a rock

(courtesy John Rubino/dollarCollapse.com)

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

i)We could have told them without the study..Deutsche bank concludes that monetary stimulus (QE) does not work

Here is the evidence

( Daniel Lacalle)

ii)CANADA/USA

TRUMP  states that a NAFTA deal is likely but Trudeau is holding out for the right deal.
(courtesy zerohedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

i)BRAZIL

Brazil is in a complete mess as the entire transportation grid is out of control.  Their shipping industry to say the least is in total calamitous chaos

( zerohedge)

ii)Argentina

Argentina has already blown through 15 billion dollars worth of bailout money and they are asking the IMF to speed up the 3rd tranche (32 billion dollars).  The September level of 3 billion dollars will not carry them very far.  Argentina is in serious financial problems and they have no way to meet its 82 billion dollar external obligations this year:

 

( zero hedge)

iii)Argentina has inflation at 31% and their short term bond yield; 45%.  The currency collapsed to 32.15 pesos to the dollar as default risk surges ahead of even Turkey

( zerohedge)

 

 

 

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Another confidence booster;  Venezuela now proclaims that the solution to their hyperinflation problem is to create paper gold on the nation’s disappearing physical gold supply

( GATA/Bloomberg)

ii)For your interest..

BBC video tour of London’s silver vaults

(courtesy GATA/BBC)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

i)Market trading /GOLD/MARKET MOVERS:

MARKET TRADING

 

ii)Market data

They have just revised the 2nd quarter GDP numbers higher to 4.2%.  No doubt the higher inventory numbers played a key role but also the Trump’s 1.5 trillion certainly provided a huge lift.  However, lately the economy seemed to have stopped on a dime…

( zerohedge)

ii)Another indicator that the economy in September stopped on a dime: pending home sales slump now for the 7th straight month as overheated real estate prices and rising rates are causing starts to drop

( zerohedge)

 

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

a)A really good commentary from Peter Schiff.  He says that we are close to having the inflation genie out of the bottle but the uSA may not be willing to raise rates in 2018 because of the deteriorating economy.
a must view…Mac Slavo/Peter Schiff)

b)Popular Michael Snyder is warning that if the Republicans lose in November, there will be civil unrest.

I agree with him

(courtesy zerohedge)

iv)SWAMP STORIES

a)No wonder hardly anybody watches CNN anymore.  CNN just threw Lanny Davis under the bus as it stands by the Cohen story even though both Cohen and Lanny Davis himself claims that Cohen did not know about the Trump Tower meeting

( zerohedge)

b)From the King report a summary of last night’s swamp stories:

(courtesy King report/Chris Powell)
special thanks from Chris Powell for sending this to us:

c)Christopher Steel worked for sanctioned Russian oligarch while he was composing the sham dossier.  Not only that but Bruce Ohr met with the Oligarch, Deripaska.  Which side had the Russian collusion?

(courtesy zerohedge)

Let us head over to the comex:

 

The total gold comex open interest FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 3059 CONTRACTS UP to an OI level 479,283 DESPITE THE FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($1.60 LOSS/ YESTERDAY’S COMEX TRADING). FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE. ONCE WE START A NEW MONTH, WE WILL NOW SEE THE OPEN INTEREST RISE AS THE CROOKS PLAY THEIR RIGGED GAME.

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST.  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A VERY STRONG SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 8260 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

OCTOBER: 680 EFP’S AND DECEMBER:  7580 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  8260 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A GOOD  5,201 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 8260 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST 3059 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  5201 contracts OR 520,100  OZ OR 16.17 TONNES.

Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED  DECREASE IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST WITH THE SMALL FALL IN PRICE/ YESTERDAY (ENDING UP WITH THE LOSS IN PRICE OF $1.60). THE  TOTAL OPEN INTEREST GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  5,201 OI CONTRACTS..

We are now in the active contract month of AUGUST. For the August contract month, we lost 11 contracts to stand at 102 contracts. The number of notices filed for yesterday was contracts so we lost 10 contacts or an additional 1000 oz will not stand at the comex as these investors morphed into London based forwards and received a fiat bonus for their efforts.

 

 

AFTER AUGUST, SEPTEMBER LOST 433 CONTRACTS AND THUS FALLS TO  900 CONTRACTS.

THE NEXT ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IS  OCTOBER AND HERE THE OI gained 534 CONTRACTS up TO 56,267 CONTRACTS. DECEMBER SAW ITS OPEN INTEREST FALL BY 4348 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 361,694.

WE HAD 62 NOTICES FILED AT THE COMEX FOR 6200 OZ.

INITIALLY FOR THE AUGUST 2017 CONTRACT WE HAD A STRONG 831,100 OZ STAND (25.85 TONNES)

BY MONTH END ONLY  524,500 OZ EVENTUALLY STOOD  (16.33 TONNES) AS MANY MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

FOR THE UPCOMING SEPT GOLD CONTRACT MONTH;

ON AUGUST 29.2017: (2 MORE READING DAYS BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE) 1158 CONTRACTS WERE OPEN FOR THE UPCOMING SEPT CONTRACT VS TODAY, AUG. 29.2018: (2 MORE READING DAYS) 900

FOR COMEX SEPT  FIRST DAY NOTICE GOLD STANDING:  80,700 OZ OR 2.696 TONNES.

BY THE END OF SEPTEMBER:  57,700 OZ OR 1.797 TONNES FINALLY STOOD AS THE OTHERS MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY: 238,175  contracts

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  299.276 contracts

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI FELL BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 8389 CONTRACTS FROM 237,613 DOWN TO 227,329 (AND A LITTLE FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S OI COMEX LOSS OCCURRED DESPITE A 5 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.AS WE MUST HAVE HAD CONSIDERABLE BANKER AND HEDGE FUND SHORT COVERING

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON – ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST, WE WERE  INFORMED THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED 3344 EFP CONTRACTS: FOR AUGUST: 0 EFP CONTRACTS, FOR SEPT:  2580 CONTRACTS  AND FOR DECEMBER: 494 CONTRACTS AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS.  THESE EFPS WERE ISSUED TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 3344.  ON A NET BASIS WE LOST 5045 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED 8389 CONTRACT LOSS AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 3344 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  5045 CONTRACTS.

 

.

FOR THE FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST WE HAD A NET LOSS OF 0 CONTRACTS REMAINING AT 2 CONTRACTS. WE HAD 0 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 0  CONTRACTS STANDING OR AN ADDITIONAL NIL OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS THESE GUYS AGAIN REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AND RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS.  QUEUE JUMPING AT THE SILVER COMEX IS THE NORM AS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL LOCATED HERE.  THERE IS LITTLE QUEUE JUMPING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR THE SIMPLE REASON THAT THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD THERE.

 

 

 

The next active delivery month after August for silver is September and here the OI FELL by 18,493 contracts DOWN to 32,158.  October PICKED UP 62 contracts to stand at 636

After October, the next big delivery month is December and here the OI rose by 9374 contracts up to 173,236 contracts.

We had notice(s) filed for 5,000 OZ for the AUGUST 2018 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

AND NOW COMPARISON VS AUGUST LAST YR:

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE JULY 31/2017:  1,965,000 OZ STOOD FOR DELIVERY

THE FINAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING:  AUGUST 30.2017: 6,245,000 OZ AS WE HAD CONSIDERABLE QUEUE JUMPING.

 

AND NOW FOR THE ACTIVE SEPTEMBER SILVER CONTRACT AND COMPARISON TO LAST YR:

 

AUGUST 29.2017:(2 MORE READING DAYS) 28,784 OPEN INTEREST CONTACTS STILL OPEN FOR THE UPCOMING SEPT ACTIVE CONTRACT MONTH VS TODAY AUG 28.2018:(2 MORE READING DAYS)  32,158 CONTRACTS.

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR THE SEPT/2017 SILVER CONTRACT MONTH:  20.515 MILLION OZ STOOD FOR DELIVERY AND BY MONTH’S END:  A HUGE 32.875 MILLION OZ WAS THE FINAL STANDING AS WE WERE WELL INTO THE PHENOMENON OF QUEUE JUMPING IN SILVER

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for AUGUST/GOLD

AUGUST 29-/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
2,175.034 oz
jpmorgan
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

nil

oz

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
62 notice(s)
 6200 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
40 contracts
(4000 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
2386 notices
238,600 OZ
7.4214 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

today we have a tiny pulse at  the comex but as usual zero gold enters the comex

THIS IS RATHER SURPRISING:  FOR THE SECOND STRAIGHT BIG DELIVERY MONTHS 
I.E. JUNE AND AUGUST, NO GOLD ENTERS THE COMEX TO SETTLE UPON LONGS STANDING FOR DELIVERY AND NO ACTIVITY WHATSOEVER WITH RESPECT TO INVENTORY CHANGES.
we had 0 kilobar transaction/
We had 0 inventory movement at the dealer accounts
total inventory deposit into the dealer accounts:  NIL  oz
total inventory withdrawals out of dealer accounts; nil oz
we had 1 withdrawals out of the customer account:
i) Out of JPMorgan:  2175.034 oz leaves all official comex vaults
total customer withdrawals:  nil oz
we had 0 customer deposit
total customer deposits: nil oz
we had 0 adjustment

For AUGUST/2018:

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 62 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 62 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the AUGUST. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2386) x 100 oz or 238,600 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST. (102 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (62 x 100 oz per contract) equals 242,600 OZ OR 7.5458 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this non active month of AUGUST

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUST/2018 contract month:

No of notices served (2386 x 100 oz)  + {(102)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (62 x 100 oz )which equals 242,600 oz standing OR 7.5458 TONNES in this  active delivery month of AUGUST.

WE LOST 10 COMEX CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 1000 OZ WILL NOT STAND AS THESE GUYS MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AND RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS FOR THEIR EFFORTS.

 

 

 

 

 

THERE ARE ONLY 8.793 TONNES OF REGISTERED COMEX GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 7.5458 TONNES STANDING FOR AUGUST  

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  282,724.026 oz or   8.793 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,430,566.702 oz 262.22 tonnes

IN THE LAST 24 MONTHS 93 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE AUGUST DELIVERY MONTH

AUGUST INITIAL standings/SILVER

AUGUST 29/ 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 1031.000 oz
Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
15,589.85
oz
Brinks
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,200,075.396 oz
CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)
1
CONTRACT(S)
(5,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
1 contract
(5,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 1212 contracts

(6,060,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 1 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

i) Into the dealer Brinks:  15,589.85 oa

total dealer deposits: 15,589.85 oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 145.4 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.8% of all official comex silver. (145 million/286 million)

 

 

ii) Into everybody else:  0 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today: nil oz

we had  1 withdrawals from the customer account;

i) Out of Delaware: 1031.000 oz

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals: 1031.000 oz

we had 0  adjustment

i) Out of Brinks:

 

 

 

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  83.597 million

total dealer + customer silver:  292.224 million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the AUGUST. contract month is represented by 1 contract(s) FOR 5,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1212 x 5,000 oz = 6.060,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST. (2) and the number of notices served upon today (1 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the AUGUST/2018 contract month: 1212(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of AUGUST(2) -number of notices served upon today (1)x 5000 oz equals 6,065,000 oz of silver standing for the AUGUST contract month

WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL NIL OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY AT THE COMEX AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARDS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY:  125,296 CONTRACTS  criminal 

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 162,842 CONTRACTS..criminal  

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 162,842 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO 814 million OZ  OR 116.3.% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -3.88% (AUGUST 28/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -1.32% to NAV (AUGUST 28/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -3.88%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.34/TRADING 11.87/DISCOUNT 3.73.

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.90 (COMEX TO COMEX BUT UP 6.00 DOLLARS FROM ACCESS CLOSING) THE CROOKS RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR ONCE AGAIN TO THE TUNE OF 4.71 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.87 TONNES AFTER THE WITHDRAWAL.

AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.60: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.58 TONNES

AUGUST 27/WITH GOLD UP ANOTHER $3.00: ANOTHER SURPRISE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.65 TONNES FROM THE GLD/SHAREHOLDERS OF GLD ARE DUMB OWING THIS CRAP/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.58 TONNES

AUGUST 24/WITH GOLD UP $18.65 TODAY/A SURPRISE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.53 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 767.23 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.20: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 768.70 TONNES

AUGUST 22/WITH GOLD UP $3.45: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTSAT 768.70 TONNES

AUGUST 21: WITH GOLD UP $5.75/A  BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.54 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 768.70 TONNES

AUGUST 20/WITH GOLD UP $10.20./ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 772.24 TONNES

 

AUGUST 17/WITH GOLD UP 20 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 773.41 TONNES

AUGUST 16/LATE LAST NIGHT, WITH GOLD DOWN $1.05: THE CROOKS RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR ONCE AGAIN: THIS TIME BY 2.06 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 774.59 TONNES, AND THEN JUST NOW ANOTHER 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD WITHDRAWN TO LEAVE THE INVENTORY LEVEL OF 773.41 TONNES/

AUGUST 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.15/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 776.65 TONNES

AUGUST 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.45, A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 9.43 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 776.65 TONNES

AUGUST 13/with gold down $18.00: no changes in gold inventory at the crooked GLD/inventory rests at 786.08 tonnes

AUGUST 10/WITH GOLD DOWN 55 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 786.08 TONNES

AUGUST 9/WITH GOLD DOWN BY 70 CENTS, OUR BANKERS AGAIN RAIDED THE GOLD COOKIE JAR TO THE TUNE OF 1.45 TONNES AND THUS THE INVENTORY RESTS AT 786.08 TONNES.ANYBODY HOLDING GOLD AT THE COMEX MUST REMOVE THEIR GOLD IMMEDIATELY AND PLACE IT IN A PRIVATE NON BANK  OR CALL ANDREW MAGUIRE AT KINESIS

AUGUST 8/WITH GOLD UP ANOTHER $2.75, OUR BANKERS MUST BE DESPERATE AS THEY RAIDED THE GOLD COOKIE JAR AGAIN TO THE TUNE OF 1.18 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 788.71 TONNES. ANYBODY WHO KEEPS HIS GOLD AT THE COMEX IS VERY FOOLISH..ALL GOLD AT THE COMEX IS UNALLOCATED.

AUGUST 7/WITH GOLD UP 0.75 TODAY/ANOTHER GIGANTIC WITHDRAWAL OF 6.04 TONNES AND THIS GOLD WAS TO BE USED IN AN ATTEMPTED RAID TODAY AND FAILED/INVENTORY RESTS AT 788.71 TONNES

AUGUST 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.30 TODAY: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.06 TONNES AND THIS GOLD WAS USED IN THE RAID TODAY/GLD INVENTORY RESTS TODAY AT 794.90 TONNES

AUGUST 3/WITH GOLD UP $3.10/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 796.96 TONNES

AUGUST 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.20/A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.24 TONNES FROM THE GLD WHICH NO DOUBT WAS USED IN THE RAID TODAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 796.96 TONNES

AUGUST 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.65/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD.INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.20 TONNES

JULY 31/WITH GOLD UP $2.05/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.20

JULY 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.95/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.20 TONNES

july  27/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.85 TODAY, NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.20 TONNES

JULY 26./WITH GOLD DOWN $5.65: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.35 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 800.20 TONNES

JULY 25/WITH GOLD UP $6.45; NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 802.55 TONNES

JULY 24/ WITH GOLD DOWN 10 CENTS: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 4.42 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 802.55 TONNES

 

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AUGUST 29/2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 759.87 tonnes

*IN LAST 445 TRADING DAYS: 171.14 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 345 TRADING DAYS: A NET 14.6 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 27/WITH SILVERUP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 24./WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 1 CENT/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 21/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 20/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/.INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 16/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A DEPOSIT OF 1.881 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 56 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 327.223 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 14/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 327.223 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 13./with silver down 31 cents today: no changes in silver inventory/inventory rests at 327.223 million oz/

AUGUST 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTOR: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.222 MILLION OZ  FROM THE SLV INVENTORY /INVENTORY RESTS AT 327.223 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 9/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY /INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.445 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 8/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 7/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS, A RAID OF 1.78 MILLION OZ (A WITHDRAWAL) AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.445 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.034 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 330.326 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 3/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.292 MILLION OZ/.

AUGUST 2 WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY/A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A WITHDRAWAL OF 141,000 OZ FOR THEIR MONTHLY STORAGE AND INSURANCE FEES:INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.292 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY, NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.433 MILLION OZ/

JULY 31/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.433 MILLION OZ/

JULY 30/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.433 MILLION OZ.

JULY 27/WITH SILVER FLAT TODAY, NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT  329.433 MILLION OZ/

JULY 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS: STRANGE: A BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.046 MILLION OZ OF SILVER/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.433 MILLION OZ

JULY 25: WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A WITHDRAWAL OF 658,000 INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.304 MILLION OZ/

 

JULY 24/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.962 MILLION OZ/

 

 

 

AUGUST 29/2018:

Inventory 329.104 MILLION OZ

 

6 Month MM GOFO 1.97/ and libor 6 month duration 2.53

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0FO+ 1.97

 

libor 2.53 FOR 6 MONTHS/

GOLD LENDING RATE: .56%

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.41%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.83

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.42

end

 

 

Major gold/silver trading /commentaries for WEDNESDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.

 

 

Will Indebted Nations Globally Follow Venezuela Into Hyperinflation?

– Currency has become worthless in Venezuela’s hyperinflation
– Venezuela was once one of the wealthiest countries in South America
– Currency collapse due to massive currency “printing,” digital currency creation and misguided socialist government
– Toilet paper roll costs 2.6m bolivars or 0.40 cents but a gold coin (1 oz) can buy over 3,000 toilet rolls
– Chicken costs 14.6m bolivars or $2.20 but a gold coin (1 oz) can buy over 540 chickens
– Indebted nations throughout the world are vulnerable and some are already seeing sharp currency depreciation – Turkey, Syria, Iran, South Africa, Argentina & others
– Risk of hyperinflation in US, EU & UK is low in short-term but real risk of deflation and then stagflation

10 Incredible Photos From Venezuela Show The Disastrous Risks Of Currency Devaluation – See Here

Watch and Follow On Our Youtube Channel

 

News and Commentary

Venezuela to Sell Gold Ingots to Pensioners as Inflation Soars (Bloomberg.com)

Gold prices inch up, but U.S.-China trade tensions weigh (Reuters.com)

Asia Stocks Mixed After Rally; Treasuries Steady (Bloomberg.com)

U.S. goods trade deficit rises as exports fall (Reuters.com)

Home-price growth slows again – Case-Shiller (MarketWatch.com)


Source: Investing.com

“The World Is Venezuela” – Sinclair and Holter (Youtube.com)

Take a look around the London Silver Vaults in a 360 video (BBC.co.uk)

The trend away from the dollar accelerates (GoldSeek.com)

Is Tunisia the next emerging market to implode? (DollarCollapse.com)

The Water Crises Aren’t Coming—They’re Here (Esquire.com)

 

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

28 Aug: USD 1,212.75, GBP 939.88 & EUR 1,037.02 per ounce
24 Aug: USD 1,189.95, GBP 928.76 & EUR 1,029.43 per ounce
23 Aug: USD 1,187.30, GBP 923.24 & EUR 1,027.61 per ounce
22 Aug: USD 1,196.85, GBP 928.25 & EUR 1,032.88 per ounce
21 Aug: USD 1,194.10, GBP 931.28 & EUR 1,036.12 per ounce
20 Aug: USD 1,188.75, GBP 933.29 & EUR 1,042.41 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

28 Aug: USD 14.90, GBP 11.56 & EUR 12.74 per ounce
24 Aug: USD 14.62, GBP 11.37 & EUR 12.63 per ounce
23 Aug: USD 14.63, GBP 11.34 & EUR 12.62 per ounce
22 Aug: USD 14.81, GBP 11.49 & EUR 12.77 per ounce
21 Aug: USD 14.78, GBP 11.52 & EUR 12.83 per ounce
20 Aug: USD 14.76, GBP 11.57 & EUR 12.93 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– End Of Dollar Hegemony May Happen Soon and Badly Impact Indebted America
– 10 Incredible Photos From Venezuela Show The Disastrous Risks Of Currency Devaluation
– This Week’s Golden Nuggets
– Video: Is Silver Set for a Massive Breakout?
– Banks Now Long Gold, Short Dollar. What Do They Know?
– Russia Buys 800,000 Ounces Of Gold In July
– Gold Season – Is This It?
– This Week’s Golden Nuggets
– Gold And Silver Prices Fall 1.6% and 4.3% To Near 2 Year Lows
– London House Prices Fall At Fastest Annual Rate Since Height Of Financial Crisis
– Jim Rogers on Gold, Silver, Bitcoin and Blockchain’s “Spectacular Future”
– This Week’s Golden Nuggets
– The Stock Market is Stretched to Double Tech-Bubble Extremes

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

 

 

 

end
 
 
ANDREW MAGUIRE’S KINESIS WHICH IS A”BITCOIN’ BACKED 100% BY ALLOCATED GOLD AND SILVER

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(Andrew Maguire)

 Dear Harvey Organ,

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Kinesis Webinar

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END

 

The following is self explanatory

(courtesy GATA/Chris Powell and Harvey Organ)

GATA asks bank regulator to check risks of gold

futures maneuver

 Section: 

12:21p ET Sunday, June 10, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GATA has appealed to the U.S. comptroller of the currency, who has regulatory authority over banks, to review financial risks certain banks may have incurred through derivatives in the monetary metals markets, particularly through the recent heavy use of the “exchange for physicals” mechanism of settling gold and silver futures contracts on the New York Commodities Exchange.

The appeal was made in a letter sent May 5 to the comptroller, Joseph M. Otting, whose office is part of the U.S. Treasury Department, by your secretary/treasurer and GATA futures market consultant Harvey Organ.

“Exchange for physical” settlements of futures contracts long were considered emergency procedures when a seller was not able to deliver metal from an exchange-approved warehouse and wanted to settle with delivery elsewhere. But now such settlements appear to constitute most gold and silver futures settlements on the Comex. It is a strange development that appears to have been necessitated by the increasing difficulties of central banking’s gold and silver price suppression policy.

GATA has received no acknowledgment of the letter. Its text is below and a PDF copy of it is here:

http://www.gata.org/files/ComptrollerOfCurrencyLetter.pdf

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

May 5, 2018

Joseph M. Otting, Comptroller of the Currency
U.S. Treasury Department
400 7th Street, SW
Washington DC 20219

Dear Comptroller Otting:

Please let us bring to your attention financial risks to major banks involving their possibly unreported exposure to derivatives in the monetary metals markets.

In recent months gold and silver future contracts issued by U.S. banks on the New York Commodities Exchange have been moved off-exchange for delivery through a mechanism known as “exchange for physical” (EFP) contracts. Until recently use of this mechanism was considered an emergency procedure when a seller did not have access to metal for delivery through Comex warehouses. Now the mechanism seems to be in use for a large share of front-month contracts for which delivery is sought.

Here is an example that is happening at the Comex in the front active month of April for gold and the inactive delivery month of April for silver.

In gold, there were 229,436 EFP contracts for 713.64 tonnes, an average of 10,925 contracts and 1,092,500 ounces per trading day.

In silver, there were 77,150 EFP contracts for 385,750,000 ounces, an average of 3,673 contracts and 18,369,000 ounces per trading day.

London Bullion Market Association rules suggest that these contracts may not be reported to regulators. The LBMA’s bylaws say:

“Figures above exclude any contracts not subject to risk-based capital requirements, such as FX contracts with an original maturity of 14 days or less, futures contracts, written options, and basis swaps. Therefore, the total notional amount of derivatives by maturity will not add to the total derivatives figure in this table.”

We are told that these EFP contracts are transferred from the Comex to London as what are called “serial forwards” and their duration is always less than 14 days, which exempts them from being reported.

It is our understanding that in each quarter your office prepares a report detailing risk undertaken by the banks under the comptroller’s supervision.

These risks include derivatives undertaken by U.S. banks and other obligations that may cause a bank to fail. Our concern is that your office may not be aware of large unreported derivative exposure by banks.

Could you review this matter and let us know your conclusions?

Sincerely,

CHRIS POWELL
Secretary/Treasurer

HARVEY ORGAN
Consultant

Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
7 Villa Louisa Road
Manchester, Connecticut 06043-7541

end

Finally, they replied and it was a complete brush off

(courtesy zerohedge)

Currency comptroller brushes off GATA’s inquiry on

gold, silver EFPs

 Section: 

11:35a ET Friday, August 10, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The U.S. comptroller of the currency, a bank regulator, has declined GATA’s request to inquire into the strange explosion of the use of the emergency procedure of “exchange for physicals” in the settlement by banks of the gold and silver futures contracts they have sold on the New York Commodities Exchange.

Your secretary/treasurer and GATA’s consultant about the Comex, Harvey Organ, wrote to the comptroller, James M. Otting, on May 5, calling attention to the recent enormous use of EFPs, which implies derivatives risks being undertaken by U.S. banks that could cause the banks to fail:

http://www.gata.org/node/18303

“Our concern is that your office may not be aware of large unreported derivative exposure by banks,” GATA wrote.

As months passed without any acknowledgment from the comptroller’s office, your secretary/treasurer appealed to his U.S. representative, John B. Larson, D-Connecticut, to ask the comptroller’s office to reply. The congressman’s office made a second inquiry on Monday this week and today the comptroller’s office provided Larson with a copy of a reply written and mailed Wednesday.

The comptroller’s reply, signed by the deputy comptroller for public affairs, Bryan Hubbard, said only that the comptroller’s office has “dedicated examiners” at the largest banks who “continuously evaluate the credit, market, operational, reputation, and compliance risks of bank trading and derivative activities.”

The reply did not say anything about the use of the “exchange for physicals” procedure for settling futures contracts. That is, the reply was a begrudged brushoff and GATA’s letter would have been ignored completely if not for Representative Larson’s repeated intervention.

Of course GATA hardly expected a conscientious reply to its letter, the comptroller’s office being not an independent regulator but part of the Treasury Department, whose mandate includes administration of the Gold Reserve Act of 1934, which, as amended in the 1970s, authorizes the department’s Exchange Stabilization Fund to secretly intervene in and rig any market in the world, directly or through intermediaries:

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/international/ESF/Pages/esf-ind…

But there’s always value in demonstrating government’s lack of candor about what it is doing, especially in regard to the monetary metals.

A PDF copy of the reply from the comptroller’s office is posted at GATA’s internet site here:

http://www.gata.org/files/ComptrollerOfCurrencyReply-08-08-2018.pdf

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Another confidence booster;  Venezuela now proclaims that the solution to their hyperinflation problem is to create paper gold on the nation’s disappearing physical gold supply

(courtesy GATA/Bloomberg)

Venezuela proclaims the solution for hyperinflation: paper gold

 Section: 

In its own way, it sort of works for Western governments too.

* * *

Venezuela to Sell Gold Ingots to Pensioners as Inflation Soars

By Patricia Laya and Noris Soto
Bloomberg News
Monday, August 27, 2018

President Nicolas Maduro said Venezuela will begin to sell certificates backed by gold ingots as a savings mechanism starting next month.

The certificates, backed by 1.5 grams and 2.5 grams of gold, are meant as tools for pensioners and others to save money and use as credit lines to acquire cars and other items, Maduro said in a televised address. The gold is meant as a more stable way for Venezuelans to hold their diminishing funds as inflation in the socialist nation runs at over 100,000 percent

“We have found the formula to advance toward socialism, equality, and the development of national productive forces,” Maduro said, speaking from Venezuela’s Mint. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-27/venezuela-to-sell-gol…

* * *

end

For your interest..

BBC video tour of London’s silver vaults

(courtesy GATA/BBC)

BBC video tour of London silver vaults fails to produce the queen

 Section: 

7:46p ET Tuesday, Augusdt 28, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The British Broadcasting Corp. this week broadcast a video tour of the silver vaults under Chancery Lane in London, which, it said, “contain the largest retail collection of antique silver in the world.” It was almost as if the network wanted to persuade everyone that there could never be any shortage of the monetary metal — except that the antique silver displayed by the retail dealers of Chancery Lane is, while glizty, not terribly dense or weighty.

And while six years ago Queen Elizabeth was ceremoniously trotted through the Bank of England’s gold vault, presumably to assure the world that there was still a lot of metal there, though each bar might have had multiple owners —

http://gata.org/node/12030

— she does not seem to have been available to lend her celebrity to the silver vault propaganda. The long-suffering woman would be entitled to resent being used again as a prop by the UK government and Western central bankers.

The BBC video of the Chancery Lane silver vaults is headlined “360 Video: Take a Look Around the London Silver Vaults” and it’s posted here:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-45314148

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED DOWN TO 6.8284/HUGE DEVALUATION FOR THE PAST FOUR WEEKS RESUMES/CHINESE COMING TO USA FOR TRADE TALKS IN NOVEMBER //OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.8394  /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 8.69 POINTS OR 0.31% /HANG SANG CLOSED UP 64.82 POINTS OR 0.23%
2. Nikkei closed UP 34.75 POINTS OR 0.15%/USA: YEN RISES TO 111.22/

3. Europe stocks OPENED MIXED

/USA dollar index RISES TO 94.87/Euro FALLS TO 1.1657

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: REMAINS AT . +.10/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 111.22/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 68.87  and Brent: 76.58

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN/ CHINESE YUAN  DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.390%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 3.16% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.42%

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 4.19

3k Gold at $1203.90 silver at:14.71   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 23 /100 in roubles/dollar) 68.07

3m oil into the 68 dollar handle for WTI and 76 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 111.22 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9771 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1390 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to +0.39%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.88% early this morning (THIS IS DEADLY TO ALL MARKETS). Thirty year rate at 3.03%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

TURKISH LIRA:  DOWN BADLY TO 6.4513

 

Markets Tread Water Ahead Of Looming Deadline For

Canada To Reach Nafta Deal

Continuing the early morning trend seen in recent days, US equity futures are little changed, following muted and lackluster European and Asian sessions, as investors treaded water on several outstanding trade issues, including Friday’s deadline for Canada to reach a deal to renew the Nafta deal, optimism over the U.S.-Mexico trade deal fading and a deadline for the next round of China-U.S. tariffs looming next week.

Overnight, futures got a modest boost after the Globe and Mail reported that after foreign minister Chrystia Freeland arrived in the US on Tuesday afternoon to engage in negotiations, Canada was ready to make concessions to the Trump administration on the country’s dairy market in exchange for compromises on other areas. According to the report, Canada would agree to change one rule that blocked American farmers from exporting ultrafiltered milk to Canada, and also offer U.S. a percentage of its dairy market; In return, Canada wants to keep Chapter 19, which allows the countries to challenge each others’ punitive duties at bi-national trade panels.

Meanwhile, ahead of the Friday deadline, the U.S. made it clear that the deadline for an agreement in principle is Friday, with no wiggle room, an official said. Despite U.S.-Mexico progress, key issues remain for Canada, although markets are betting a deal will be reached that includes Canada. Freeland struck a positive tone before and after, saying aspects of an accord struck without Canada at the table will help advance other issues. She said it will be an “important and constructive week” and that Canada was encouraged by progress made without them.

On another front of the global trade conflicts, analysts at JPMorgan noted the deadline for public comment on Trump’s increased tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods was less than a week away on Sept. 5.

“End-of-month flows could start to take hold into the end of the week, and combined with light news flow and the risk of impending trade war escalation could result in conviction remaining light,” JPM cautioned. The White House has said it wants to settle NAFTA before dealing with China, suggesting that trade disputes will run well into 2019.

The MSCI world equity index edged down 0.02% from the 5 1/2- month highs it hit after Mexico and the U.S. struck their deal.

“The market is quite right to say after the knee-jerk reaction higher in the Mexican peso and equities, a) there was remarkably little detail, and b) what is the state of Canada?” said Andrew Milligan, head of global strategy at Aberdeen Standard Investments. “It helps this rebound in risk assets we’re seeing after the Turkey and global EM related selloff in the first half of the month, but it is an erratic rally because we need a bit more fuel to the fire.”

U.S. stocks remain at an all-time high, while the rest of the world has been playing a gradual game of catch-up. However risks abound, from legal threats to President Trump’s administration and turmoil in emerging markets to ongoing trade tension between the world’s major economies.

“We don’t know where China is on this,” Informa Financial Intelligence strategist David Ader. “I tend to be more pessimistic that we are going to come away with trade deals that are going to make everybody satisfied, but we are trading headlines, we are trading the sensitivity to those headlines, so for the moment it looks good.”

* * *

Sentiment in Europe was muted, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index trading on the backfoot as national gauges in the region declined, while equities in the U.K., Italy and Spain underperformed. Spain’s IBEX dropped -1.0% following a downgrade of its second largest constituent, Inditex (-4.6%), subsequently weighing on the consumer discretionary sector. Energy names underperform, dragging down the likes of oil names such as Shell (-1.3%), in turn weighing on the UK’s FTSE 100.

Shares in Japan and Australia set the pace as the MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed, though stocks in Shanghai dropped for a second day, following continued PBoC liquidity inaction (6th consecutive day of no new net liquidity injections) and amid a slew of earnings including 3 of China’s big 4 banks which all posted growth in profits.

After a choppy session for the underlying gauge on Tuesday, futures for the S&P 500 Index pointed to a slight gain at the open.

Turkey’s lira extended its slump to a third day as the central bank’s move to reintroduce borrowing limits for banks’ overnight transactions by doubling the banks’ borrowing limit at its interbank money market, failed to boost investor confidence. The dollar surged as much as 2% against the lira, which was again the worst performing emerging-market currency. The central bank said on Wednesday it is altering banks’ borrowing limits for overnight transactions, which effectively tightens liquidity by ending unrestricted funding it has offered since Aug. 13, however the market was disappointed as investors do not see policy makers’ approach to market pressure as a sustainable way to tackle double-digit inflation and a widening current-account deficit.

“It’s yet more smoke and mirrors from the central bank,” said Nigel Rendell, an analyst at Medley Global Advisors LLC in London. “The change in banks’ overnight borrowing limits is aimed at trying to ease pressures on the banking system, rather than tackling Turkey’s underlying problem, which remains persistently high inflation.”

Turkish data on Wednesday showed an index of Turkish economic confidence fell to the lowest level since 2009 in August, while the trade deficit widened again.

The pound was little changed after a Bloomberg report the EU and UK are likely to push back the deadline for a Brexit deal by around one month to mid-November instead. Gilts were range-bound along with most European bonds as 10-year Treasury yields retreated further below 2.9 percent. The euro weakened after the Italian government was reported to be hoping for a new program of European Central Bank bond purchases to help protect the country’s debt.

Currencies vol eased after a turbulent few days, with the dollar index 0.1 percent firmer at 94.833 after touching a four-week low overnight. The dollar was supported by a now familiar pattern in EMFX: it was a mixed European session with emerging market FX and yuan weakness gradually gathering momentum to sour sentiment. USD was supported across the board, while USDCNH rises 0.4% to 6.83; TRY, ZAR and INR underperform in EMFX markets.

The Australian dollar dropped after one of the nation’s largest banks unexpectedly raised mortgage rates, raising concerns that higher costs will hurt the economy and delay any policy tightening. Sweden’s krona slid a fifth consecutive day against the euro to near yesterday’s nine-year low; risk reversals rally as some bet further pain for the currency is in store amid month-end flows and with a general election and Riksbank meeting looming next week.

After hitting a one-month high at $1.1733 overnight, the euro dropped 0.2% to touch a low of 1.1673 after La Stampa reported that the Italian government is to call on the ECB for a new round of QE while concerns over Italy’s budget continued to weight on the Euro. “We believe that Italy is headed on a collision course with the EU as the two meet to discuss Italy’s budget in September,” wrote Man Group portfolio managers in a note.

Despite recent weakness, emerging markets have had a strong recovery from the sharp selloff earlier this month. “On balance people are looking to buy EM assets but it would be foolish to say buy them all because there are still vulnerabilities in a sizeable number,” said Aberdeen Standard’s Milligan.

Peripheral bond markets outperformed on the day, with Italy’s 2-year bond yield falling to 1.249. Emerging market stocks were under renewed pressure, falling 0.2%.

In commodity markets, WTI breached its 100 DMA to the upside(at USD 68.69/bbl), while Brent reclaimed the USD 76/bbl level after it losing following a surprise build in API crude inventories last night. Recent gains in WTI and Brent followed comments from IEA’s Executive Director Birol, he sees oil markets tightening towards end-year, while citing strong demand. Elsewhere, gold was uneventful as the yellow metal tracks the USD, while Shanghai steel dropped for a sixth consecutive session following comments from Beijing’s state planner, warning the economy is facing increasing risks in the second half of the year.

Today’s data includes mortgage applications, the second Q2 GDP revision and pending home sales. Salesforce, Brown-Forman, Samsonite, and PVH are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 2,901.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.1% to 385.85
  • MXAP up 0.3% to 166.82
  • MXAPJ up 0.2% to 540.90
  • Nikkei up 0.2% to 22,848.22
  • Topix up 0.5% to 1,739.60
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.2% to 28,416.44
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.3% to 2,769.30
  • Sensex down 0.2% to 38,834.24
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.8% to 6,352.24
  • Kospi up 0.3% to 2,309.03
  • German 10Y yield rose 0.2 bps to 0.382%
  • Euro down 0.2% to $1.1673
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 3.1 bps to 2.913%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.6 bps to 1.449%
  • Brent futures little changed at $75.97/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,203.85
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 94.84

Top Overnight News

  • The current October deadline to finalize Brexit divorce terms may be extended as the U.K. and EU now aim for the middle of November at the latest, according to people familiar with the discussions
  • Italy might be relying on the hope of a new round of government-bond purchases by the European Central Bank to shield its public debt from financial speculation and the threats of a rating downgrade
  • Canada’s foreign minister has rejoined Nafta talks as a U.S. deadline looms this Friday to reach a deal to renew the pact as a three-country agreement
  • Indians have deposited almost all the currency notes made illegal by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in 2016, the central bank said in a report after a count that lasted nearly two years
  • Thailand’s central bank is under no immediate pressure to raise interest rates like emerging-market peers elsewhere given the nation’s solid buffers and relatively strong currency, Governor Veerathai Santiprabhob said

Asia-Pac stocks traded mixed following the unconvincing performance on Wall Street whereby the majors somewhat flatlined in which the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp. just about eked fresh record highs. ASX 200 (+0.8%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.2%) were positive with Australia led higher by resilience in financials and as earnings dominated news flow, while the Japanese benchmark was supported by mild JPY weakness and briefly reclaimed the 22900 level. Conversely, Shanghai Comp. (-0.3%) was negative and Hang Seng (+0.2%) traded indecisive following continued PBoC liquidity inaction and amid a slew of earnings including 3 of China’s big 4 banks which all posted growth in profits. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lower amid the heightened risk appetite in Japan and following a relatively paltry Rinban announcement by the BoJ. PBoC skipped open market operations and are net neutral on the day. PBoC set CNY mid-point at 6.8072 (Prev. 6.8052)

Top Asian News

  • China Traders Sell Record Hong Kong Stocks as Tencent Stings
  • Tencent-Backed EV Maker Seeks Valuation Above $8 Billion in IPO
  • Bank of Thailand Chief Sees No ‘Imminent’ Need for Rate Hike
  • Toyota Said to Target Tripling China Output Over Next Decade
  • Westpac First Big Australian Lender to Raise Mortgage Rates

European equities trade on the backfoot (Eurostoxx 50 -0.5%) with underperformance in Spain’s IBEX (-1.0%) following a downgrade of its second largest constituents, Inditex (-4.6%), subsequently weighing on the consumer discretionary sector. Energy names underperform, dragging down the likes of oil names such as Shell (-1.3%), in turn weighing on the FTSE 100 (-0.8%), while industrial names benefit from the decline in oil and base metal prices. In terms of individual movers, RTL group (+5.0%) flew to the top of the Stoxx 600 after reporting strong earnings.

Top European News

  • Italy Reportedly May Reach Out to ECB on New Bond Purchase Plan
  • Orban and Salvini Seek to Rally Europe’s Anti-Immigrant Forces
  • Pernod Ricard Raises Guidance Amid Gains on China, India
  • Norwegian Leaders Pledge Budget Restraint to Avoid Krone Gains

In FX, the dollar index and broad Dollar continue to consolidate off recent lows on the back of Monday’s upbeat US consumer confidence survey that sparked short covering, and ahead of today’s 2nd look at Q2 GDP that is expected to confirm strong growth. However, a wider than forecast advance trade balance for July could adversely impact, while at least one month end rebalancing model indicates a strong Usd sell signal. DXY currently nearer the upper end of a 94.890-685 range. EUR – The single currency remains capped below 1.1700 vs the Greenback having relinquished big figure-plus status yesterday amidst offers between 1.1725-30 and with decent option expiry interest at the 1.1675 strike (1.4 bn) weighing.  EM – The Lira and Rand continue to bear the brunt of the currency run and capital flight for all the well know reasons, with Usd/Try up towards 6.4000 after only fleeting respite via the CBRT doubling the overnight lending limit for banks, while Usd/Zar has rebounded further to 14.4000 following the partial withdrawal or suspension for more consideration of the ANC land appropriation bill.

Commodities traded higher, WTI futures breached its 100 DMA to the upside(at USD 68.69/bbl), while Brent reclaimed the USD 76/bbl level after it losing following a surprise build in API crude inventories last night. The recent gains in WTI and Brent followed comments from IEA’s Executive Director Birol, he sees oil markets tightening towards end-year, while citing strong demand, Venezuela’s falling output and unstable production including in the Middle East. Traders will be eyeing the EIA weekly crude stocks due later today, expected to print a draw of 686K barrels; according to a Reuters poll. Elsewhere, gold is uneventful as the yellow metal tracks the USD, while Shanghai steel dropped for a sixth consecutive session following comments from Beijing’s state planner, warning the economy is facing increasing risks in the second half of the year. However, some analysts believe steel prices will be supported by production curbs as Beijing tries to limit pollution.

Looking ahead to today, much of the focus will be on the second revision to Q2 GDP in the US. In Europe, September consumer confidence data in Germany and the second revision to Q2 GDP for France are due. Also due in the US is July pending home sales data and the latest weekly mortgage applications data. Away from this the EU Trade Commissioner Malmstrom is scheduled to speak at an international trade event in Stockholm. Today is also the deadline for when prosecutors for President Trump’s former campaign manager Paul Manafort must decide whether or not to retry him for ten unresolved counts.

Looking ahead to today, much of the focus will be on the second revision to Q2 GDP in the US. In Europe, September consumer confidence data in Germany and the second revision to Q2 GDP for France are due. Also due in the US is July pending home sales data and the latest weekly mortgage applications data. Today is also the deadline for when prosecutors for President Trump’s former campaign manager Paul Manafort must decide whether or not to retry him for ten unresolved counts.

US Event Calendar

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 4.2%
  • 8:30am: GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 4.0%, prior 4.1%
    • Personal Consumption, est. 3.9%, prior 4.0%
    • Core PCE QoQ, est. 2.0%, prior 2.0%
  • 10am: Pending Home Sales MoM, est. 0.25%, prior 0.9%
  • 10am: Pending Home Sales NSA YoY, est. -2.5%, prior -4.0%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Last night the S&P 500 crawled to a 0.03% gain and a fresh all-time high while the DOW and Nasdaq ended +0.06% and +0.15%, respectively. The ranges on these three were the 7th, 4th, and 4th smallest of the year so it wasn’t the most exciting of sessions. Here in Europe, August has really been a month of two halves for equities with the initial Turkey pain giving way to a decent rebound although yesterday was a bit of pause for breath with the Stoxx 600 closing -0.03% following a late dip into the red at the close. That said, it’s still up +1.78% from the intra-month lows. The DAX also ended -0.09% although the periphery was more sluggish with the FTSE MIB (-0.85%) in particular underperforming. BTPs (+3.2bps) also sold off for the fifth straight session and the spread to Bunds is all of a sudden, at 280bps, back near the May wides with 10yr yields now at YTD and four year highs. Early headlines in the Italian press quoting Italian deputy premier Di Maio as saying that Italy may breach the deficit limit in 2019 if investments and reforms needed to boost growth require doing so appeared to be the early catalyst although the comments were then seemingly contradicted later in the day by Finance Minister Tria saying that Italy has no such plans. Clearly this back and forth has plenty of room to run as we edge closer and closer to the budget date so headlines like this will become much more frequent and important for markets. Alongside Italy, Turkey is the other main sovereign concern for markets at the moment and after a quiet few days due to a long holiday last week, the Lira continues to edge progressively lower again, falling -4.49% over the past two days, although it is c0.2% stronger this morning in the Asia session.

Away from the Lira, other EM currencies were pressured yesterday with the Argentine and Mexican Pesos shedding -1.68% and -1.69%, respectively (more on Mexico below). G10 currencies were mixed, with the safe-haven Swiss Franc (+0.37%) leading gains versus the dollar on potential safe haven flows. The pound bounced around gaining 0.31% before retracing to close -0.15% weaker as investors digested the news that Bank of England Governor Mark Carney has been asked to stay on through 2020, past his current end-date of 2019. The Treasury denied the reports and the Bank of England declined to comment. One to watch moving forward.

Returning to bonds, while BTPs were weaker, Bunds traded flat but Treasuries (+3.4bps) were softer. The latter was seemingly impacted by the steady stream of data out in the US yesterday. The biggest headline grabber was the  August consumer confidence print which came in at a bumper and much better-thanexpected 133.4 (vs. 126.6 expected). That marked a jump of 5.5pts from July and is the highest reading since October 2000 with the present conditions gauge also jumping to the highest since December 2000. The August Richmond Fed index also printed at a better than expected 24 (vs. 17 expected) and jumped 4pts from July so the first two survey reports for the US this August are certainly looking rosy. July wholesale inventories increased 0.7% mom for the eighth consecutive month of positive growth, the longest streak since 2014-2015. June home prices rose 6.31%, continuing the recent trend and confounding predictions that the recent tax reform law would depress home prices by making the mortgage payment deduction less attractive.

In Europe, M3 money supply growth was weaker than expected in July, decelerating to 4.0% yoy from 4.5%. The series can be volatile, so our economists prefer to look at the credit side of the accounts, which continue to look robust. The credit impulse (the second derivative of lending) was 1.5% of GDP in July, a slight acceleration over last month and consistent with GDP growth of 2.0%. So another signal of healthy, above trend growth even though we’ve decelerated a fair amount this year.

Elsewhere, after posting a decent gain on Monday post the positive trade agreement news over the weekend, the Mexican Peso (-1.69%) gave up most of its gains again yesterday, perhaps reflecting the lack of detail in the deal. Speaking of trade, with the Mexico deal now out of the way there is some suggestion that the US might turn its attention back to trade talks with China although President Trump’s economic advisor Larry Kudlow suggested that talks are still seemingly stalled, saying that “we’ve never heard anything positive out of China” and “meetings have come to nothing” in comments on Fox News yesterday.

Turning to Asia this morning, equities are nudging higher with the Nikkei (+0.45%), Kospi (+0.22%) and Hang Seng (+0.23%) all up while Chinese bourses are down c0.4% as we type. In the US, the Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said he is “not at all concerned” about the flattening yield curve while noting that Fed Chair Powell as a “phenomenal” leader. Meanwhile the US Senate has voted 69-26 in favour of Columbia University professor – Richard Clarida being the Fed’s new Vice Chair. Elsewhere the Globe and Mail cited unnamed sources that Canada is ready to make concessions to the US on its domestic dairy market in exchange for compromises on other areas as part of the NAFTA talks. Back in the UK, Bloomberg reported the EU and UK are likely to push back the deadline for a Brexit deal by around one month to mid-November instead.

Away from data, the BoJ board member Hitoshi Suzuki sounded an alarm over the side effects of BoJ’s easing policy saying the BoJ may find that the cumulative side effects of its easing policy will get out of control if it simply waits for them to emerge. He also said, ”if they materialize at some point in the future, there’s a risk that it’ll be difficult for us to respond well, or that it will be too late to respond at all.”

Before looking at the day ahead, yesterday our European economists published a note looking at what they believe should be the main five themes shaping Europe into year-end and setting up for 2019. The themes highlighted by the team are (1) the sustainability of economic growth, (2) trade war, (3) market volatility, (4) core inflation, (5) ECB. With regards to growth, the team expect modestly above-trend growth to continue, with a gradually slowing underlying trend as capacity erodes. The costs from the trade war become more material if auto tariffs are implemented while market volatility stems most likely from Turkey and Italy, with the latter the biggest risk. Core inflation should lift modestly into year-end in our colleagues’ view which should help set up the ECB for a rate hike in September 2019.

Looking ahead to today, much of the focus will be on the second revision to Q2 GDP in the US. In Europe, September consumer confidence data in Germany and the second revision to Q2 GDP for France are due. Also due in the US is July pending home sales data and the latest weekly mortgage applications data. Away from this the EU Trade Commissioner Malmstrom is scheduled to speak at an international trade event in Stockholm. Today is also the deadline for when prosecutors for President Trump’s former campaign manager Paul Manafort must decide whether or not to retry him for ten unresolved counts.

 

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i) WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed DOWN 8.69 POINTS OR 0.31%   /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 64.82 POINTS OR 0.23%/   / The Nikkei closed UP 34.75 POINTS OR 0.16%/Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.64%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8284 AS POBC RESUMES SLIGHTLY ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER/Oil UP to 68.86 dollars per barrel for WTI and 76.19 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED  =MIXED //.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED  DOWN AT 6.8284 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8315: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOT DOING TOO GOOD   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING MUCH WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

North Korea/South Korea/USA/China

 

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

 

3C CHINA

A very important read…China’s shadow banking system has now collapsed as leaders are asking the local government to borrow from the muni market.  That basically shuts out most of these government facilities.  Infrastructure was the key to Chinese development and that is now going by the wyside

(courtesy zerohedge)

China’s Building-Boom Hits A Wall As Shadow-

Banking System Collapses

Beijing wants to shore up growth without inundating the economy with cheap credit.

 

But, as WSJ’s Walter Russell Mead pointed out previously, it’s not easy…

Chinese leaders know that their country suffers from massive over-investment in construction and manufacturing, that its real-estate market is a bubble that makes the Dutch tulip frenzy look restrained, that both conventional debt and debt in the shadow-banking system are too large and growing too rapidly.

But even as the Communist Party centralizes power and clamps down on dissent, it dithers when it comes to the costly and difficult work of shifting China’s economic development onto a sustainable track.

Chinese authorities have tried to tackle some of these problems, but often retreat when reforms start to bite and powerful interests push back.

To see how hard that will be, The Wall Street Journal’s Nathaniel Taplin takes a look at China’s roads and railways.

China is the 800-pound gorilla of global infrastructure. Its building prowess has permeated popular culture, as in the disaster movie “2012” where China constructs giant ships to help humankind escape rising seas.

Recently, however, China’s infrastructure build has all but ground to a halt.

Here’s why…

The central government last year started to crack down on unregulated, opaque – so-called ‘shadow-bank’ borrowing – alarmed at its vast scale, and potential for corruption.

 

For five straight months, the shadow banking system has contracted under this pressure, sucking the malinvestment lifeblood out of economic growth and construction booms as Chinese local governments, which account for the bulk of such investment, set up as so-called local-government financing vehicles (off balance sheet), or LGFVs, and have seen an unprecedented net $19 billion outflow in recent months.

 

As WSJ’s Talpin notes, these days Beijing prefers that local governments borrow on-the-books, through the now legal municipal bond market. The problem is that lower-rated and smaller cities are mostly shut out, even though they do most actual capital spending. As a result, investment has kept slowing even though China’s net muni bond issuance in July was three times higher than it was in March. Infrastructure investment excluding power and heat was up just 5.7% in the first seven months of 2018 compared with a year earlier, down from 19% growth in 2017.

Eventually, all the cash big cities and provinces are raising through muni bonds will start filtering down. Meanwhile, the investment drought will likely worsen, raising pressure on Beijing to ease credit conditions further – making the incipient rally in the yuan hard to sustain.

 

That also means China’s debt-to-GDP ratio, which fell marginally in 2017, could start rising again next year.

Simply put, as with water and wine, China’s leaders haven’t figured out how to crack down on local governments’ dubious infrastructure spending during good times without severely damaging growth – or how to loosen the reins during bad times without creating lots more bad debt.

Unless they can square that circle, it bodes ill for the nation’s long-term prospects.

END

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

British pound spikes after EU official points to progress in Brexit talks

(Reuters)

Sterling rose to its highest level since Aug. 6 on news that a Brexit deal could be near.

Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, says Europe is prepared to offer an unprecedented partnership to the UK.

The pound’s surge pushes British stocks lower as the FTSE 100 drops 0.9 percent.

-END-

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

IRAN

The following is quite interesting:  cracks are starting to appear at the top of Iran’s government as now the key figure Rouhani has been censured.  Not only that but other top officials have been sacked.

The problem is that we are left with hard lines and nobody with cooler heads are prevailing over there. The Iranian riyal is now 122,000 per one on the black market and inflation is running rampant.  The uSA is doing their thing as they are destroying emerging markets with their high external debt denominated in dollars.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Fissures Grow At Top Of Iran’s Government As Rouhani

Censured, Top Officials Sacked

Iran’s parliament has censured President Hassan Rouhani, voting on Tuesday to reject his explanations for why the country’s economy is crumbling. Reuters reports this came after Rouhani underwent a grilling in front of parliament on live TV as hardliners gain the upper hand after crippling rounds of US sanctions.

It’s but the latest sign of deep fissures that run to the top of Iran’s government after parliament sacked the minister of economy and finance over the weekend.

This followed the labor minister’s sacking as well — both were blamed for not staving off the collapse of the rial and surging inflation.

Fighting erupted over whether to oust the finance minister during a parliamentary session in Tehran. Image source: EPA via LA Times

The dismissal of the now former finance minister Masoud Karbasian is unlikely to do anything positive to halt the downward spiral at this late hour with the rial falling to new lows seemingly on a weekly basis against the U.S. dollar.

The rial fell this past weekend to 107,000 to the dollar, while a year ago it was about 33,000 rials to $1.

It signals an overall trend that conservatives and Islamists are seizing the opportunity to gain momentum over moderates and pragmatists amidst trying to survive economic war with the US.

“Over the last year since you became the minister, the dinner table of the people has shrunk to the point of invisibility,” conservative lawmaker Hosseinali Hajideligani told the finance minister during a contentious legislative hearing over the weekend“The purchasing power of the people has dropped down at least by 50%. You have made the people poorer every day.”

Karbasian, for his part, blamed the sanctions while implying there’s nothing that could have stopped the pressure from squeezing the entire economy, saying America had “targeted our entire economy and social fortifications.”

“America is seeking to block the country’s economic vessels to put people under pressure and stir dissatisfaction,” the finance minister told lawmakers. “They are after hitting the government and ruling system. You should believe that we are at an all-out economic war.”

But in the end a narrow majority of 137 lawmakers in the 260-seat parliament voted to boot Karbasian, suggesting that moderates who joined in on lashing out at the chief administrative overseer of economic policy may have tipped the scales against him.

One reformist lawmaker, Elias Hazrati of Tehran charged: “What have we done? What have we done to the Iranian people?” And questioned further, “Why should the people suffer from this situation? What is the people’s fault?”

No doubt, the White House welcomes these growing public divisions as President Trump has now on multiple occasions credited increased domestic turmoil in Iran with his pulling the US from the Iran nuclear deal last May and reimposing aggressive sanctions targeting major industries.

As Reuters acknowledges“The action in parliament is a further sign of how the Trump administration’s decision to re-impose sanctions could affect Iran’s leadership and its relationship with the outside world, potentially for decades to come.”

And yet, as a number of analysts predicted, the hard-nose approach will likely raise the stature of the Islamic hardliners in Tehran, who from the beginning preached that American duplicity, saying the US would never honor the 2015 deal when Rouhani entered into it.

Reuters summarizes this trend as follows:

Iran’s rulers have been divided between a pragmatic faction that aims for better international relations, and hardliners who are wary of reforms. Trump’s decision to abandon the nuclear deal was opposed by U.S. allies in Europe, who argued that he undermined Rouhani and strengthened the hands of the hardliners.

Meanwhile it appears there’s likely more carnage within Tehran’s leadership to come: following the exit of both the finance and labor ministers this month, Tasnim news agency reported that 70 lawmakers have already moved to impeach a third: the Minister of Industry, Mines and Business.

The long-term ascendancy of the hard-line faction in Iran’s government is also likely to make it easier for hawks in Washington and Tel Aviv to make a public case that the regime needs to be toppled.

END

TURKEY

The central bank cuts off borrowing from the banks but that is not enough to stop the faltering Turkish lira now at 9:30 am at 6.4525/  Right now the yield on Turkish bonds is 20%..they need 25% to stop the bleeding

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Turkish Lira Tumbles As Central Bank Intervention Fails

The Turkey’s lira tumbled as much as 3% against the dollar, making it the worst performing currency in the world, and extending its slump to a third day after the central bank announced it doubled banks’ borrowing limit for overnight transactions at the interbank money market – effectively tightening liquidity by ending the unrestricted funding it has offered since Aug. 13 – failed to bolster investor sentiment.

“Banks’ borrowing limits for overnight transactions at the Interbank Money Market established within the CBRT would be twice the limits applicable before Aug. 13”, The Turkish central bank said.

However, like many of the measures introduced in recent weeks to contain a slide of more than 40 percent in the lira this year, this one also failed as investors do not see the bank’s approach to market pressure as a sustainable way to tackle double-digit inflation and a widening current-account deficit, when what the bank should be doing it raising rates and making the country more attractive for foreign investors.

“It’s yet more smoke and mirrors from the central bank,” said Nigel Rendell, an analyst at Medley Global Advisors LLC in London. “The change in banks’ overnight borrowing limits is aimed at trying to ease pressures on the banking system, rather than tackling Turkey’s underlying problem, which remains persistently high inflation.”

The lira plunged 3.0% lower, dropping as much as 6.4786 per dollar. Together with the Argentine peso, it’s the worst-performing emerging-market currency this year. As the selling resume, the yield on 10-year bonds climbed 19 bps to 21.95%, and fast approaching the record set earlier this month.

Separately, on Wednesday the Turkish economic confidence fell to the lowest level since 2009 in August, while the country’s trade deficit widened in July from the previous month.

Commenting on today’s failed intervention, Rendell said that the central bank got “zero bang for its buck” in Wednesday’s move, given the renewed lira selling. The bank is set to meet on Sept 13 for its next policy decision.

“The downward currency trend will continue until monetary policy is significantly tighter,” he said. “If the bank really wants to stop the rout and is serious about tackling ever-higher inflation, it needs to raise interest rates by at least 500 basis points.”

That, however, may never happen as long as Erdogan is president.

END

Tunisia

The next country on the list to fall will be Tunisia has these guys have a huge external debt of 80% to GDP and their dinar is falling like a rock

(courtesy John Rubino/dollarCollapse.com)

 

Is Tunisia The Next Emerging Market To Implode?

Authored by John Rubino via DollarCollapse.com,

Seems like every few days a new developing country discovers that it can’t pay back the dollars and/or euros it borrowed back when “external foreign currency debt” seemed like a good thing. Next up: Tunisia, apparently. From today’s Wall Street Journal:

Nation That Sparked Arab Spring Finds Itself a Springboard for Illegal Migration

AL ATAYA, Tunisia – More than seven years after Tunisians overthrew their country’s dictatorship in a revolution that spawned the Arab Spring, the country’s economy is in crisis and thousands of people are sneaking into Europe, as part of a new wave of clandestine migration from what had been a North African success story.

The recent Tunisian exodus began in 2017 as economic pressures mounted on the country’s working and middle classes. Tunisians have enjoyed greater political freedoms since the Arab Spring uprising and Mr. Ben Ali’s fall, but a series of post-revolutionary governments have failed to revive the economy and create jobs. Today, more than 35% of Tunisian young people are unemployed, and many don’t see a future in their own country.

“The state isn’t giving us anything,” a 24-year-old mechanic in Al Ataya said, adding he had considered leaving on a smuggler’s boat until a shipwreck killed more than 100 people offshore in June.

In recent years, Tunisia’s government has tried to correct course. The government chose to cut budgets at the urging of the International Monetary Fund, which extended Tunisia a $2.9 billion loan in 2016.

But the IMF-led overhaul has failed to trigger a turnaround. The economy is currently growing at 2.8%, a slower rate than in 2010 before the uprising. Tunisia’s currency, the dinar, shed 21% of its value against the euro in 2017. When the cuts the IMF had urged took effect in January, a wave of protests shook the country, raising questions about the future of its democratic transition.

A series of terrorist attacks in 2015 also devastated Tunisia’s tourism industry. The country is also still righting itself after the economic shock of the 2010-2011 uprising.

The lack of new jobs has driven a powerful undercurrent of pessimism among young Tunisians. Young people on this island who fail to make a living in fishing often while away their days in cafes. Others join the smugglers.

Sounds pretty grim, especially the part about IMF-imposed austerity. Let’s see if the numbers paint the same picture. First, government debt should be souring — and it is:


source: tradingeconomics.com

And external debt – that is, debt denominated in other currencies that becomes harder to manage as the dinar falls against those other currencies – should be rising. And it is. Since 2008 it’s risen from less than 50% of GDP to more than 80%.

80% of GDP is high enough to be potentially destabilizing if the dinar keeps falling. European banks who lent money to the former French colony now wish they hadn’t and will soon be lining up for an ECB bail-out that, when combined with those of all the other emerging market creditor banks, might break the trillion-euro mark.

 

Meanwhile, the ease with which Tunisians cross over into Europe will add to the social crisis of mass immigration, with all the attendant costs and political disruptions. Italy’s new populist government, for instance, will absolutely not take a million Tunisians, which will will put it at odds with the EU, which might spark a euro crisis, and so on.

Is this systemically threatening? Maybe. In any event it certainly deserves to be on the list of straws waiting to break the camel’s back.

END

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

We could have told them without the study..Deutsche bank concludes that monetary stimulus (QE) does not work

Here is the evidence

(courtesy Daniel Lacalle)

Monetary Stimulus Does Not Work. The Evidence Is In…

Authored by Daniel Lacalle via dlacalle.com,

In a report called “A report card for unconventional monetary policy,” Deutsche Bank has analyzed the impact on the economy of “unconventional” monetary policies, quantitative easing and negative interest rates.

They have analyzed the impact on manufacturing indices from the beginning to the end of these measures, and have found the following results:

1. In eight of the 12 cases analyzed, the impact on the economy was negative

2. In three cases, it was completely neutral

3. It only worked in the case of the so-called QE1 in the US, and fundamentally because the starting base was very low and the US became a major oil and gas producer.

As Torsten Slock, the analyst at Deutsche Bank, explains, that in eight out of twelve cases the impact was negative speaks for itself.

“How do you evaluate if QE and negative interest rates are working? When I discuss this with clients, I sometimes get the response that QE and negative interest rates are working well because the payment systems are running and the financial system still functions. But the issue is not if computers can deal with negative interest rates. The issue is if QE and negative rates have been supporting the economy.

The chart below looks at QE and negative rates across countries and the impact it has had on ISM and PMI across countries, from start to end of each unconventional policy. The conclusion is that US QE1 had an impact but in all other cases the impact of QE and negative interest rates has been insignificant. And in 8 out of 12 cases, the economic impact has been negative.

Once again, there is too big of a burden on monetary policy and it is time for fiscal and structural policy to step up and begin to support GDP growth.

The European case is truly amazing:

 

But the Japanese one is simply staggering:

 

Central Banks Balance Sheet vs Global GDP

 

 

Last two charts via @dailyeconomist

Merrill Lynch also shows the poor QE results:

 

END
CANADA/USA
TRUMP  states that a NAFTA deal is likely but Trudeau is holding out for the right deal.
(courtesy zerohedge)

With Friday Deadline Looming, Trump Says NAFTA Deal Likely But Trudeau

Holding Out For “Right Deal”

With a bilateral deal between Mexico and the US already ironed out, Canada said an agreement to salvage the trilateral NAFTA – which technically no longer exists – is possible by the Friday deadline, but it will be hard work to resolve specific issues as talks with the United States entered a second day. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said his government is trying to reach agreement with the U.S. this week. But Trudeau added that Canada won’t sacrifice its goal of getting the “right deal.”

“We recognize that there is a possibility of getting there by Friday, but it is only a possibility, because it will hinge on whether or not there is ultimately a good deal for Canada,” he said at a press conference in northern Ontario on Wednesday. “No NAFTA deal is better than a bad NAFTA deal.”

“We’re going to be thoughtful, constructive, creative around the table but we are going to ensure that whatever deal gets agreed to is the right deal for Canada and the right deal for Canadians.”

Trump earlier set a Friday deadline for the three countries to reach an in-principle agreement, and is pressuring Canada to strike a deal by week’s end, which is when the Trump administration plans to inform Congress that he intends to sign a new trade pact with Mexico in 90 days that would replace Nafta. If Canada holds out, Trump warned he would levy tariffs on Canada if it does not come on board with revised trade terms.

This gives Canada three options according to Bloombergeither strike a deal both can live with, cave to Trump’s pressure tactics or dig in and see what the U.S. will do.

Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland said Wednesday that she was optimistic that progress can be made this week, but she added that much work remained to be done to iron out the details: “When it comes to specific issues, we have a huge amount of work to do.”

CTV News

@CTVNews

Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland says she is “encouraged” and “optimistic” as NAFTA negotiations resume in Washington.
Read more: http://ctv.news/8Er1LEQ

She declined to name the specific issues, but said on Tuesday that Mexico’s concessions on auto rules of origin and labor rights was a breakthrough. Freeland said the U.S. and Canada agreed to not negotiate the unresolved details publicly.

“There are some important things that we believe we have accomplished together with the U.S. and thanks to some significant compromises Mexico was prepared to make to support Canadian workers,” Freeland told reporters Wednesday in Washington after morning meetings with U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer.

The Canadian dollar pared losses after Freeland’s comments, and was little changed at C$1.2915 per U.S. dollar at 3:19 p.m. in Toronto trading. It had been down as much as 0.2 percent earlier in the day. Freeland said she’s planning to meet with Lighthizer again at 5 p.m. on Wednesday.

According to Bloomberg, Canada’s dairy market is a focal point for Wednesday’s negotiations, a U.S. official familiar with the negotiations said. Trump has repeatedly deemed Canadian tariffs on some dairy products as unfair for U.S. producers.

Trudeau on Wednesday restated his position of defending the “supply-management” system that controls production of some Canadian farm products like dairy.

After being sidelined from the talks for more than two months, Freeland will be under pressure to accept terms the United States and Mexico worked out. The U.S. Congress also wants a deal that includes Canada. The three countries are aiming to seal a trade pact by Friday to allow Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto to sign it before he leaves office at the end of November. The timeline accommodates a 90-day waiting period under U.S. trade law before Trump can sign the pact.

The political implications are big for the other two countries too. Republicans face mid-term elections in November and Trudeau a national one expected by October 2019. “The strategy is to get a better deal,” White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders said on Wednesday.

Outstanding issues

One of the issues for Canada in the revised deal is the U.S. effort to dump the Chapter 19 dispute resolution mechanism that hinders the United States from pursuing anti-dumping and anti-subsidy cases. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said on Monday that Mexico had agreed to eliminate the mechanism.

As Reuters reports, to save that mechanism, Ottawa plans to change one rule that effectively blocked American farmers from exporting ultrafiltered milk, an ingredient in cheesemaking, to Canada, the Globe and Mail reported, citing sources. Trudeau repeated on Wednesday that he will defend Canada’s dairy industry.

Other hurdles include intellectual property rights and extensions of copyright protections to 75 years from 50, a higher threshold than Canada has previously supported.

“I think that what they probably need by Friday is some indication from Canada to the Americans that it’s ready to play ball, that they’re ready to negotiate in good faith,” said Mark Warner, a trade lawyer with MAAW Law, which specializes in Canadian and U.S. law.

“If Chrystia Freeland goes down there and she starts going on and on about red lines again, then I think it’s all over,” he added.

Commenting on today’s talks, President Donald Trump said they are going well, expressing optimism the two countries could reach a deal this week.

“We’re doing really well,” Trump told reporters at the White House on Wednesday, referring to negotiations between U.S. and Canadian officials in Washington. “They want to be part of the deal. And we gave till Friday and I think we’re probably on track.”

7  OIL ISSUES

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES.

 

BRAZIL

Brazil is in a complete mess as the entire transportation grid is out of control.  Their shipping industry to say the least is in total calamitous chaos

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

“The Situation Is Completely Out Of Control”:

“Calamitous” Chaos Hits Brazil’s Shipping Industry

Is there such a thing as too much of a good thing – in this case currency devaluation – for an export-driven economy? In the case of Brazil, it appears the answer is yes.

With the Brazilian real tumbling and foreign trade partners scrambling to benefit from the low FX-adjusted prices, Latin America’s biggest economy should be enjoying an export boom. Only, that is not happening as a result of chaos in the country’s logistics sector which started with a state of emergency following a trucker strike in May (and which required an army intervention) and has now gripped the country’s shipping industry.

As the FT reports, exporters eager to capitalize on Brazil’s weakening currency and bumper harvests are booking shipping, but then having difficulty finding the trucks to deliver their goods to port on time because of an ongoing dispute with drivers over freight prices, according to Maersk Line, the world’s largest container shipping company.

The resulting competition for limited shipping space combined with uncertainty over truck freight prices has led exporters to over-book shipping by as much as 200% from 5 per cent normallycreating chaos and confusion at ports.

“What we see right now is the situation is completely out of control, and getting worse,” said Antonio Dominguez, Maersk Line managing director for east coast South America.

in a world of just-in-time logistics – without to no fail safe alternatives – and where even the smallest deviation from pre-planned norms tends to ripple and cascade not only across the domestic economy, but ultimately crippled global supply chains as well. This is what has happened to Brazil.

As a result, the 10-day Brazilian truckers’ strike has become what the FT has called “the most calamitous economic events” to strike the centre-right government of President Michel Temer, crippling second-quarter GDP, undermining investor confidence and sending the currency sliding even more (paradoxically making the problem even worse as exporters push even harder to sell their wares).

With even the world’s largest container shipping company in shock by what is taking place, it is no surprise that multinationals ranging from Unilever to Carrefour have been hard hit by the strike.

According to economists the worst effect of the shutdown was subsidies ceded by the government to truckers. These included a lower diesel price and a guaranteed minimum freight price that has raised transport costs for soy and corn exporters more than 800km from port by as much as 28%. To make matters worse, the price is being charged on return trips, even if a truck is empty.

“The tabela [minimum price] is creating a big pricing distortion,” said one executive from a freight company, who said the return charge in particular was “overkill”.

And since the minimum freight price was immediately challenged in the courts, leading to confusion over its enforcement and uncertainty in the market, it forced exporters and drivers into lengthy negotiations over every cargo.

Others – such as Maersk – disagree, and say the problem of over-booking has its roots as far back as 2016, when Brazil’s economy suffered the second year of its worst recession in history, leading shipping companies to cut back on the number of vessels serving the market. The economy began to rebound in 2017 and 2018 led by agricultural exports. But the overbooking problem only emerged this year after the truckers’ strike as exporters, desperate to secure limited space, began wildly over-booking despite being unable to predict with certainty when or what quantity of goods they would be able to deliver to port.

The result has been a truncated trade channel, and a nightmare for anyone involved with Brazilian logistics: Maersk said the overbook has led to 5% of cargoes being left behind each month because of the confusion, the equivalent one vessel going empty each month.

Container exports, which account for 80% of Brazilian trade, fell 6% in the second quarter of this year against the same period a year earlier, down from 6% growth in the first quarter.

The biggest irony of all is that with the Brazilian real tumbling, Brazil should be enjoying an export boom, with US President Donald Trump’s trade war with China favouring Latin American soya bean producers, in particular.

“The currency continues to depreciate, so now it`s actually crossed the R$4 to the dollar mark, that’s extremely good for exports,” Maersk’s Mr Dominguez said. “But then every day is a challenge to be able to arrange a contract with a trucker out of the places where you have those commodities.”

The good news is that for now, in a worst case scenario Brazilian trade partners can still find alternative trade routes from other, just as cheap export sources.

The concern is that as the emerging market crisis spreads – and there is a reason why EM currencies are so low – the same pattern of logistical collapse will follow, as incumbent governments are overthrown and replaced with populist favorites, that focus on domestic needs at the expense of international trade. The concern is that with the world overly reliant on streamlined and functional just-in-time logistical supply chains, once a critical mass of logistics goes offline, global trade and commerce could suffer a catastrophic event, like the one David Korowicz described back in 2012 in “Financial System Supply-Chain Cross-Contagion: a study in global systemic collapse” which had this relevant excerpt:

The growing stress in our very complex globalised economy means it is much less resilient. Thus a small shock or an unpredictable event could set in train a chain of events that could push the globalised economy over a tipping point, and into a process of negative feedback and collapse.

 

 

END

Argentina

Argentina has already blown through 15 billion dollars worth of bailout money and they are asking the IMF to speed up the 3rd tranche (32 billion dollars).  The September level of 3 billion dollars will not carry them very far.  Argentina is in serious financial problems and they have no way to meet its 82 billion dollar external obligations this year:

 

(courtesy zero hedge)

Argentina Begs IMF To Speed Up Bailout Money As

Peso Hits Record Low

Argentine President Macri, speaking on television, has admitted that his collapsing country has asked The IMF to accelerate their bailout payments from the $50 billion lineas, presumably, they are blowing through it faster than expected in a failed effort to stabilize the peso.

As Bloomberg notes, Argentina received the first $15 billion of the program in June. It was expected to receive $3 billion in September. Macri did not say how much he had requested from the Fund. IMF economists and technicians are in Argentina this week in meetings with government members to review portions of the agreement.

“We have agreed with the IMF to forward all the funds necessary to guarantee compliance with next year’s financial program,” Macri said in televised address.

“This decision aims to eliminate any uncertainty that was created before the worsening of the international outlook.”

Just yesterday, BCRA sold over $200mm and failed to keep the peso off record lows…

 

 

As The FT reports, the recent turmoil in emerging markets has since muddied the outlook and called into question how Argentina will meet its $82bn financing needs for this year and next, while navigating a looming recession and rising consumer prices ahead of a presidential election in 2019.

While most investors believe that policy continuity is crucial if the economy is to normalise, the turbulence roiling emerging markets adds additional hurdles to an already-treacherous obstacle course, according to John Baur, a portfolio manager at Eaton Vance.

“With the external environment and the uncertainty about where the [Argentine] peso is going to end up, it’s just too hard to say if they can meet their IMF targets,” he said.

And judging by Macri’s comments today, it’s worse than expected.

end

Argentina has inflation at 31% and their short term bond yield; 45%.  The currency collapsed to 32.15 pesos to the dollar as default risk surges ahead of even Turkey

(courtesy zerohedge)

Argentina Default Risk Surges, Currency Collapses As

Investors Finally Lose Faith

Mauricio Macri’s presidency was meant to lead Argentina out of a dismal period of debt defaults, currency controls and recession. But, as Bloomberg reports, markets show investors are losing faith in the new dawn for South America’s second-largest economy.

Despite all the constant propaganda spewing forth from officials in Argentina (and at The IMF), we leave it to an old friend and veteran EM trader to sums things up: “The Argies are proper f**ked.”

Indeed, judging by today’s market action and headlines, he is right, as despite the promise of a USD 50 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout (which is now being accelerated), the Argentine peso continues to collapse, inducing the next wave of inflation, and it could shortly usher in the next recession/depression.

With a run on the peso, Argentines and investors are bracing for financial volatility, which judging by the latest declines in emerging-market currencies – it might have already started – as the peso has crashed another 4% today to a new record low above 32.5/USD...

 

The central bank sold $200 million of its reserves in two currency auctions on Tuesday aimed at stabilizing the peso, which nonetheless weakened to a record close of 31.50 per dollar. Another $300 million were auctioned on Wednesday.

“Over the last week we have seen new expressions of lack of confidence in the markets, specifically over our financing capacity in 2019,” Macri said.

Will Argentina, rather than Turkey, be the first to impose exchange controls which are governmental limitations on the purchase and/or sale of the peso.

USDARS (PESO) SPOT RATE

According to Reuters, economists had pointed out that Argentina’s peso was extremely overvalued, and it seems that the government made the fatal mistake by acknowledging the problem. In April, the peso started its plunge against the dollar, due to investor concerns about the government’s ability to control inflation and the threat of interest rate hikes plus quantitative tightening via the U.S. Federal Reserve, which rapidly strengthened the dollar worldwide.

USDARS Spot Rate 

 

With the peso in terminal decline, Argentina’s dollar debts became more expensive for the government, prompting it to tap a USD 50 billion lifeline with the IMF.

 

NATIONAL INFLATION Y/Y

While it is evident that Argentina needs to stabilize the peso before the free-falling currency forces the next round of economic pressures to its fragile economy by stoking inflation, Reuters figures that inflation is around 31 percent year over year.

 

FOREIGN CURRENCY RESERVES

Argentina seems to be running out of runway with a declining peso severely depleting the country’s currency reserves.

Interest rates have been raised to 45 percent and selling billions of dollars in fx reveres have not convinced investors that the government has the problem under control.

While the IMF loan gave reserves a boost back to April levels, it seems that any further selling of the peso will drain reserves quite quickly.

 

ECONOMIC ACTIVITY Y/Y

With inflation surging and rising interest rates choking economic activity, the financial storm in Argentina is only getting started. To make matters worse, a devestating drought has decimated the harvest of soybeans and corn, said Reuters, adding that agriculture is the backbone of the economy.

As shown below, the economy has contracted for three straight months, with the agricultural sector baring the most weight on the slump — as some economist told Reuters that a recession is on the horizon.

Economic data shows GDP dropped by 6.7 percent in June, “the worst monthly fall since the global financial crisis of 2009,” concluded Reuters.

 

“Meanwhile, a clear move to greater fiscal discipline to restore investor confidence seems to be an implausible option for the government. Not only would budget belt-tightening likely deepen the economic recession toward which the country now seems to be lurching, it is also that the Macri government would not seem to have the political support for such belt-tightening, especially ahead of next year’s general election. Since having called in the IMF for assistance, President Macri has seen his support at the polls drop from 50 percent to 35 percent.

In December 2015, at the start of his presidency, the Macri government made the crucial mistake of lifting all exchange controls before stabilizing Argentina’s economy and before aggressively embracing deep economic reform. The government now seems likely to have to pay dearly for that mistake. With the currency plummeting and with other options having run out, President Macri may very well soon be forced to reintroduce exchange controls to put a floor to the currency’s damaging free fall,” said Desmond Lachman, a Resident Fellow at American Enterprise Institute.

Visualize the emerging market currency crisis in one chart — it is a global problem.

 

Emerging markets/G7 FX volatility ratio just hit its all-time record high – higher even than 2008 and the global financial crisis. Could there be a much larger storm brewing just not in Argentina?

 

 

And finally, just in case you forgot, Argentina (the most-defaulting nation in world history) issued a 100-year bond last year (and it was over-subscribed). Things are not going so well for those ‘reaching’ for that yield…

 

Argentina’s yield spread over Treasuries — the extra cost it pays to borrow in the bond market compared with the U.S. — has climbed this month to the highest since December 2014. The spread surpassed Ecuador’s, which has the dubious distinction of having the second-most defaults in the world since 1800, for the first time since May 2015.

 

An early release of funds from the IMF could help to stabilize Argentine assets, according to Frances Hudson, a global strategist in Edinburgh at Aberdeen Standard Investments.

“Otherwise, it’s edging closer to a crisis in a region that seems vulnerable and volatile on a number of fronts,” she said.

end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00 am

Euro/USA 1.1657 DOWN .0037/ REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES MIXED

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 111.22   UP 0.075  (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL

GBP/USA 1.2887 UP   0.0018  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.2941  UP .0013(CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 37 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1657; / Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED DOWN 8.69 POINTS OR 0.31%  /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 64.82 POINTS OR 0.23% /AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP  .64% / EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL MIXED

N

 

The NIKKEI: this WEDNESDAY morning CLOSED UP 34.75 POINTS OR 0.15%

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED ALL MIXED

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang UP 64.82 POINTS OR 0.23%  /SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 8.69 POINTS OR 0.31% 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP .64%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 64.82 POINTS OR 0.23%

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1203.35

silver:$14.71

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.88% !!! UP 0 IN POINTS from TUESDAY night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

The 30 yr bond yield 3.03 UP 0  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 94.87 UP 16  CENT(S) from TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

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And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.90% UP 2    in basis point(s) yield from TUESDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.10%  UP 0 BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/EXTREMELY VOLATILE YESTERDAY

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 146% UP 0  IN basis point yield from TUESDAY/

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.13 DOWN 6   POINTS in basis point yield from TUESDAY/DANGEROUS!!

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 167 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES UP TO +.40%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1695  UP .0002(Euro UP 2 Basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/

USA/Japan: 111.78 DOWN 0.625 Yen DOWN 63 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3002 UP .01324( POUND UP 132 BASIS POINTS)

USA/Canada 1.2947  Canadian dollar DOWN 19  Basis points AS OIL ROSE TO $69.33

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

This afternoon, the Euro was ROSE 2 BASIS POINTS  to trade at 1.1695

The Yen FELL to 111.89 for a LOSS of 63 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE

The POUND GAINED 132 basis points, trading at 1.3002/

The Canadian dollar LOST 19 basis points to 1.2947/ WITH WTI OIL RISING TO 69.33

The USA/Yuan,CNY closed UP AT 6.8212  ON SHORE  (YUAN DOWN)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.8211 (  YUAN DOWN)

TURKISH LIRA:  6.4276

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.10%   UP 0  BASIS POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 2  IN basis points from TUESDAY at 2.89 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.04 UP 2  in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 94.67 DOWN 5 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 1:00 PM 

London: CLOSED DOWN  54.01 POINTS OR .71%

German Dax : CLOSED UP 34.26 POINTS  OR 0.27%
Paris Cac CLOSED UP 16.34 POINTS OR 0.30%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 37.00 POINTS OR 0.37%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP:  140.02 POINTS OR 0.68%/

 

The Dow closed UP  60/55 POINTS OR 0.23%

NASDAQ closed UP 79.65 points or 0.99% 4.00 PM EST 

 

WTI Oil price; 69.33  1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 76.50 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    68.19/ THE CROSS HIGHER BY 34/100 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE LOWER BY 34 BASIS PTS)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA:  6.4276 PER ONE USA DOLLAR.

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES +.40 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:$69.70

BRENT: $77.32

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.89%

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.02%/

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1707 UP .0014 ( UP 14 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:111.68 UP 0.528 (YEN DOWN 53 BASIS POINT/ .

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 94.54 DOWN 18 cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.3028 UP 159 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 6.4627

the Russian rouble:  68.05 DOWN .28 roubles against the uSA dollar.

 

Canadian dollar: 1.2910 UP 18 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 6.8212  (ONSHORE)

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH):  6.8195 (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.40%


VOLATILITY INDEX:  12.27  CLOSED DOWN .23

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.314%  .LIBOR  RATES ARE RISING

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

Nasdaq Nears Best August Since DotCom Peak But EM,

VIX, Bonds, & Macro Decouple

How Argentina feels tonight… (fwd to 2mins if you can’t bear to wait)

 

Since China intervened mid-month (ahead of the US-China trade talks), the Yuan strengthened and US equities soared (until decoupling the last few days)…

 

And bond yields have fallen (QE trade!?)

 

But Emerging Market currencies have started to collapse again…

 

The Nasdaq is on course for its best August since the year 2000…Things did not end well last time (-74% in under 3 years)

 

Ramping in an echo of January’s exuberance – …Things did not end well last time

 

And we note that VIX has recently decoupled from stocks…

Buoyant appetite for call options may offer one explanation for why VIX rose in tandem with equities in recent sessions. A similar situation preceded the record spike in volatility earlier this year that abruptly ended the previous stretch of all-

 

And finally, if you think stocks are rallying on fun-durr-mentals, you’re wrong!

 

 

But apart from that, BTFATH!!!

*  *  *

Chinese stocks continued to drift lower after Monday’s National Team pumpathon…

 

And record highs in US stocks, because why not! From 10amET (Freeland!?) to 1130pmET (EU close), there was a clear systemic bid across the entire US equity market. Cash markets closed on a weaker tone despite 1 billion MoC to buy…

 

Everything was clam overnight but the fact that US equity markets actually opened seemed to invoke a buying panic that ended when EU closed…

Treasury yields were mixed today with most of the curve up around 1-2bps only but the long end slightly lower…

 

30Y Yields remain above 3.00% but appear to have peaked in this micro-ramp…

 

The Dollar ended the day lower, once again though shifting-trend in the middle of the day…

 

The yuan has started to slide once again…

But EM FX was ugly. The Brazilian Real managed modest gains along with the Mexican Peso but the Argentine Peso collapsed and the Turkish Lira continued its renewed weakness…

 

Turkey is tumbling back toward pre-holiday record lows…

 

But the Argentine Peso was utterly destroyed… (biggest drop since 2015’s devaluation) ARS closed on its low tick, a fraction below the 34.0/USD level.

 

Cryptocurrencies were modestly lower today, legging down around the US equity open…

 

PMs managed gains amid the weaker dollar, copper slipped lower but WTI surged after inventory data…

 

WTI Crude is back up near the $70 handle once again…

 

And spot Gold is holding above $1200…

So much for the Fed balance sheet delta impacting stocks!!??

 

END

 

market trading/this morning

 

 

Market data

They have just revised the 2nd quarter GDP numbers higher to 4.2%.  No doubt the higher inventory numbers played a key role but also the Trump’s 1.5 trillion certainly provided a huge lift.  However, lately the economy seemed to have stopped on a dime…

(courtesy zerohedge)

Q2 GDP Revised Higher To 4.2%, Strongest In 4 years

After bursting higher in second quarter, when according to the first estimate of Q2 GDP, the US economy grew at an annualized 4.1% rate, moments ago the BEA reported that according to its second estimate of second quarter GDP, the US grew at an even stronger, 4.23% rate – higher than the 4.0% estimate, and the highest since the summer of 2016 – at a time when the Trump’s $1.5 trillion fiscal stimulus was boosting the US economy.

 

The upward revision to the second estimate of GDP growth mainly reflected upward revisions to business investment in intellectual property products and downward revisions to imports.

While most of the components improved, there was a pullback in personal consumption which rose 3.8% in 2Q, down from 4.0% in the first estimate, and below the 3.9% estimated.

 

In terms of contribution to the bottom line, the various line items were as follows:

  • Personal Consumption: 2.55%, down from 2.68%
  • Fixed Investment:1.07%, up from 0.94%
  • Change in Private Inventories: -0.97%, up from -1.00%
  • Exports: 1.10%, down from 1.12%
  • Imports: 0.07%, up from -0.06%
  • Government consumption: 0.41%, up from 0.37%

 

A big contributor to growth was nonresidential fixed investment, or spending on equipment, structures and intellectual property rose 8.5% in 2Q after rising 11.5% prior quarter

Separately, the GDP price index rose 3.0% in 2Q after rising 2.0% prior quarter, while core PCE q/q rose 2.0% in 2Q after rising 2.2% prior quarter as inflation cooled modestly.

Also in today’s report, the BEA said that corporate profits rose 1.2% in prior quarter; y/y corporate profits up 7.7% in 2Q after rising 5.9% prior quarter, and were broken down as follows:

  • Financial industry profits increased 3.8% Q/q in 2Q after falling 2.1% prior quarter
  • Federal Reserve bank profits down 4.7% in 2Q after falling 2.8% prior quarter
  • Nonfinancial sector profits rose 5.1% Q/q in 2Q after rising 2.7% prior quarter

While the number is largely irrelevant, as it references a period nearly 3 months old, it confirms that the economy was heating up headed into the summer. The bigger question of what GDP will do this quarter will be answered in two months, however according to high frequency economic indicators, all signs point to a continuation of the trend, especially since the impact of Trump’s fiscal boost is expected to peak some time around now.

END

Another indicator that the economy in September stopped on a dime: pending home sales slump now for the 7th straight month as overheated real estate prices and rising rates are causing starts to drop

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Pending Home Sales Slump For 7th Straight Month As “Overheated Real Estate Markets” Start To Drop

Amid its “broadest slowdown in years” the US housing market faces prices for starter homes at the highest they have been since 2008, just prior to the collapse of the housing market, and August is confirming that prices are indeed becoming an issue.

Following the drop in Existing- and New-home sales (as well as another drop in mortgage apps), Pending-home sales missed expectations dramatically, dropping 0.7% MoM in July (+0.3% exp).

 

This is the seventh straight month of annual declines in pending home sales…

 

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says the housing market’s summer slowdown continued in July.

“Contract signings inched backward once again last month, as declines in the South and West weighed down on overall activity,” he said.

It’s evident in recent months that many of the most overheated real estate markets – especially those out West – are starting to see a slight decline in home sales and slower price growth.

Yun blames affordability (and supply)…

“The reason sales are falling off last year’s pace is that multiple years of inadequate supply in markets with strong job growth have finally driven up home prices to a point where an increasing number of prospective buyers are unable to afford it.”

The US housing data just keeps getting worse…

 

Again as we noted previously, none of this should come as a huge surprise since

Sentiment for Home-Buying Conditions are the worst since Lehman…

 

With The Fed set on its automaton hiking trajectory, we suspect home sales will continue to lag.

END

USA economic/general stories
A really good commentary from Peter Schiff.  He says that we are close to having the inflation genie out of the bottle but the uSA may not be willing to raise rates in 2018 because of the deteriorating economy.
a must view…Mac Slavo/Peter Schiff)

Peter Schiff: “We Will Have Inflation And Recession At The Same Time”

Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

Peter Schiff, who accurately predicted the 2008 financial crisis has said in a recent podcast that the Federal Reserve is going to let the “inflation genie out of the bottle.”  And Schiff says this warning comes directly from the Fed’s own chairman, Jerome Powell.

In his podcast from August 24, Schiff warns that inflation is going to impact us all very soon. Schiff based this assessment on a speech given by Powell at Jackson Hole. 

“What Powell is saying is, ‘We are not going to do anything to make sure that the inflation genie stays in the bottle, but if the inflation genie actually escapes the bottle, and we don’t think that she’s going to; we think the genie is happy hanging out in the bottle. But if for some reason she gets free, well then, we’re going to do whatever it takes to get her back in there, especially considering the vulnerability of the US economy.’” –Peter Schiff

According to Seeking Alpha’s assessment of the podcast, Schiff noted that the strength of the dollar and the weakness in gold have primarily been driven by expectations of aggressive central bank monetary tightening.

“If what Jerome Powell said today causes traders to second-guess those assumptions and maybe dial back their expectations for rate hikes, maybe not necessarily the two rate hikes that everybody believes that are coming in the balance of 2018, but potentially they idea there may be no rate hikes at all coming in 2019 and that 2018 may be the end of it, and in fact, maybe we won’t even get the December rate hike. I think to the extent that traders start to reprice the odds of future rate hikes, this could be a big move in the dollar, a big move in gold.” –Peter Schiff

Schiff went on to say in the podcast that we should be prepared for inflation and recession to his us in the face and at the same time.

I think by the time we have this high inflation, we’re also going to have recession. Now, is the Fed going to do whatever it takes to put the inflation genie back into the bottle even if it means exacerbating a recession that is already underway? Because we can certainly have inflation and recession at the same time. I mean, we’ve had it before and I think we’re going to have it again. But of course, given the amount of debt that we have, if the Fed really jacked interest rates up to seven, eight, nine percent – whatever it took in order to rein in that inflation, not only would it cause another financial crisis, but it would cause the US government to either have to dramatically slash spending on things like Social Security and Medicare, dramatically increase taxes, even during a recession, or default in its bonds. So, doing whatever it takes means basically economic Armageddon, so I don’t believe that for a minute.” -Peter Schiff

Schiff also made a dire prediction that should serve as a warning to Americans:

“I do think that the American public is a lot closer to poverty than anybody imagines.  I mean, I don’t think the only thing standing between Americans and abject poverty is Donald Trump’s presidency, even though he may believe that. I think what maybe has been standing between America and poverty has been the Chinese and the rest of the world willing to give us their stuff for free; exchange the goods that they produce for the money that we print. And all of that is in jeopardy now.” -Peter Schiff

Schiff says it is definitely possible that all Americans will soon be poor, but not for the reasons that Donald Trump thinks, for looming reasons no one is looking at.

END

Popular Michael Snyder is warning that if the Republicans lose in November, there will be civil unrest.

I agree with him

(courtesy zerohedge)

Civil Unrest Is Brewing, Trump Warns Violence Is Coming If Republicans Lose In November

Authored by Michael Snyder via The American Dream blog,

Are we going to see violence in the streets of our major cities following the mid-term elections in November?

 

 

President Trump seems to believe that this is a very real possibility, and he shared his thoughts on this with a group of top evangelical leaders on Monday night.

Previously, those that have warned that a “civil war” is coming to America have been heavily criticized, but perhaps people will start taking this more seriously now that President Trump is saying it.

Of course we have already seen dozens of attacks on Trump supporters all over the nation, but the mainstream media largely ignores those because it does not fit the narratives that they are pushing.  The mainstream media wants to make Trump and his supporters look as bad as possible, and so they do not like to report anything that may cause the public to view them in a positive light.  But everyone can see that anger and hatred are rising to unprecedented levels in this country, and the mainstream media and key politicians on the left are adding more fuel to the fire with each passing day.

On Monday, somewhere around 100 top evangelical leaders gathered for an intimate dinner with Trump, and this dinner made headlines all over the nation

About 100 evangelical leaders were invited to dinner at the White House Monday night for what was a prayer-filled event that’s been compared to a church camp meeting and a campaign rally.

Dubbed a “state dinner” for evangelical leaders, the event was held specifically in the “honor of evangelical leadership.” The dinner was attended by dozens of evangelical pastors, evangelists and activists who’ve been involved in informally advising the administration including well-known figures like Franklin Graham, James Dobson, and Greg Laurie.

During his remarks at the dinner, Trump acknowledged that “the level of anger is unbelievable”, and he warned that there will be violence if Republicans lose in November

“The level of hatred, the level of anger is unbelievable,” he said. “Part of it is because of some of the things I’ve done for you and for me and for my family, but I’ve done them. … This Nov. 6 election is very much a referendum on not only me, it’s a referendum on your religion, it’s a referendum on free speech and the First Amendment.”

If the GOP loses, he said, “they will overturn everything that we’ve done and they’ll do it quickly and violently, and violently. There’s violence. When you look at Antifa and you look at some of these groups — these are violent people.”

With only a little more than two months to go before the mid-term elections, I think that President Trump is starting to realize how dire the situation is.  Pro-Trump Republicans have lost in primaries in Arizona, Idaho and elsewhere, Democratic candidates are raising far more money than Republican candidates are, and the left has far more energy and enthusiasm than the right does at the moment.

If the mid-term elections were held right now, the Democrats would almost certainly take control of the House, and they might even win a majority in the Senate.

And Trump is correct that there will probably be violence if Republicans lose, but there will also probably be violence if Republicans win.  Either way, Antifa and other groups on the radical left will continue to escalate the rhetoric and the violence.

In addition to rioting in the streets like we have already witnessed in cities such as Portland, individual Trump supporters are already being attacked at an alarming rate as well.

You can find a fairly comprehensive list of attacks on Trump supporters right here.

This nation is becoming a cauldron of fury, and it isn’t going to take much to set off widespread chaos.

At the dinner on Monday night, Trump also warned evangelicals that our religious freedoms are in serious jeopardy

“I just ask you to go out and make sure all of your people vote. Because if they don’t — it’s November 6 — if they don’t vote, we’re going to have a miserable two years and we’re going to have, frankly, a very hard period of time,” he said.

“You’re one election away from losing everything that you’ve gotten,” he added. “Little thing: Merry Christmas, right? You couldn’t say ‘Merry Christmas.’ “

And even though we probably aren’t going to lose the right to say “Merry Christmas” any time soon, the truth is that we are certainly seeing our religious freedoms being eroded at a staggering pace.

In fact, earlier today I came across an article about a plaque containing the Ten Commandments that was just removed from a park in Ohio.  The left wants to remove every trace of the Christian faith from public life, and they are absolutely relentless in their effort to get this done.

If the Democrats take control of both the House and the Senate in November, they will probably make an effort to impeach President Trump.

But if President Trump gets impeached, Mike Pence will become president, and many on the left hate Pence even more than they hate Trump.

In his brand new book about Pence, radical leftist Michael D’Antonio attempts to portray Mike Pence as a “Christian supremacist” that is basically functioning as “a president-in-waiting”

Biographer Michael D’Antonio is releasing a new book about Vice President Mike Pence, and though he’s clearly not in Pence’s corner, his appearance Tuesday on CNN summed up perfectly the Christian values that drive the vice president’s actions.

D’Antonio told CNN’s John Berman that he is confident Pence feels God is “calling him” to “function as a president-in-waiting.” The biographer, promoting the new book, “The Shadow President: The Truth About Mike Pence,” argued “absolutely everything” the vice president does is about “becoming president.”

Ultimately, removing Trump from the picture won’t change a whole lot.  The left would still be seething with hatred and anger, and we would continue to see more violence all around the country.

At this point, there really isn’t any conservative that the left would be willing to accept in the White House.  And there are many on the right that would not be willing to acknowledge any liberal as a legitimate president.

America is rapidly getting to the point of becoming ungovernable, and no matter who wins in November, it is quite likely that we will soon see clear evidence of this as chaos reigns in our streets.

SWAMP STORIES

No wonder hardly anybody watches CNN anymore.  CNN just threw Lanny Davis under the bus as it stands by the Cohen story even though both Cohen and Lanny Davis himself claims that Cohen did not know about the Trump Tower meeting

(courtesy zerohedge)

CNN Throws Lanny Davis Under The Bus, “Stands By”

Its Cohen Story

The clowns just keep piling out of the little car as CNN has published what can best be described as a hit-piece on Michael Cohen attorney Lanny Davis, who “repeatedly changed his account of what Cohen knew about President Donald Trump’s involvement” in a June 2016 meeting at Trump Tower between Donald Trump Jr. and a Russian associate of opposition research firm Fusion GPS, along with several others in attendance.

Cohen is President Trump’s former longtime attorney and self-described “fixer” who retained Davis – a lifelong friend of Hillary Clinton – to represent him in his ongoing legal matters related to the 2016 presidential election, including hush money payments made to two women who claim to have had affairs with Trump over a decade ago.

 

Davis backpedaled on “confident assertions” that Cohen would share information with investigators that President Trump knew of Russian efforts to undermine Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton – forcing the Washington Post and others to correct their reporting.

Davis told The Washington Post that he cannot confirm media reports that Cohen is prepared to tell special counsel Robert S. Mueller III that Trump had advance knowledge of the 2016 Trump Tower meeting –WaPo

“I should have been more clear — including with you — that I could not independently confirm what happened,” Davis told the Post, adding perhaps the most difficult four words for an attorney to utter: “I regret my error.”

 

CNN, meanwhile, is standing by their version of the Cohen story – even after Davis admitted to BuzzFeed Newshe was CNN’s sourceWe stand by our story, which had more than one source, and are confident in our reporting of it,” said a CNN spokeswoman on Tuesday.

The CNN story noted, based on sources, that Cohen did not have corroborating evidence to back up his claim. CNN did not report whether Trump knew about the meeting before it happened — only that Cohen was making that claim while hoping for a deal from prosecutors.

Davis acknowledged over the weekend that he confirmed CNN’s story to other news organizations.

He now says that he also was one of the sources for CNN’s story.

For more than three weeks, Davis did not raise any issues to CNN about its reporting. –CNN

So Cohen’s attorney has retracted a claim that his client would tell Mueller of Trump’s foreknowledge of the infamous Trump Tower meeting, while CNN claims that some other anonymous source, not Lanny Davis, said the same thing.

Was Cohen himself another CNN source? If not, they’re sure implying it.

Vince Coglianese

@TheDCVince

This is a heck of a way to either burn Cohen as CNN’s source, or pretend that he is.

Amber Athey

@amber_athey

CNN’s “defense” of their Trump Tower story does the following:

– Doesn’t address Davis declining comment on record despite being a source

– Doesn’t explain why they think the story is strong enough w/o Davis

– Suggests Michael Cohen was a sourcehttps://dailycaller.com/2018/08/28/cnn-addresses-lanny-davis-trump-tower-story/ 

Steven Perlberg

@perlberg

Still kind of a mystery to me why @jimsciutto and @carlbernstein can’t just write in their own words that Lanny Davis was one of their sources — he told me so himself on the record! Also lol can BuzzFeed News get a LINK pic.twitter.com/xJ7OtnyPs9

On Sunday, CNN’s Brian Stelter tweeted “We stand by our story, and are confident in our reporting of it.”

Davis’ role in the CNN story also offers a window into the kind of anonymous sourcing common across newsrooms, as Buzzfeed concluded. Some news outlets have a policy to not let sources speak “on background” — that is, as a “person familiar with the matter” or some other unnamed moniker — and also be allowed to decline to comment on the record.

“We should address Lanny Davis’s comments in our reporting and be more transparent with our readers about our reporting,” one CNN staffer told BuzzFeed News.

We can’t wait for the next act in this comedy of errors.

END
From the King report a summary of last night’s swamp stories:
(courtesy King report/Chris Powell)
special thanks from Chris Powell for sending this to us:
@RepMarkMeadows: We’ve learned NEW information suggesting our suspicions are true: FBI/DOJ have previously leaked info to the press, and then used those same press stories as a separate source to justify FISAs Unreal. Tomorrow’s Bruce Ohr interview is even more critical. Did he ever do this?
FBI Agent Told Congress the Bureau Used Leaked Stories to Obtain Spy Warrants
FBI Special Agent Jonathan Moffa told Congress on Friday that the FBI has used leaked stories to obtain FISA warrants
    Moffa worked closely on the Clinton email investigation with Peter Strzok, the former deputy chief of FBI’s counterintelligence division who was recently fired for sending anti-Trump text messages. Strzok and Moffa took part in the July 2, 2016 interview with Clinton about her use of a private email server to exchange classified emails…  https://dailycaller.com/2018/08/27/source-fbi-congress-leaked-stories-spy-warrants/
Bruce Ohr: FBI Knew About Bias before Getting a FISA on Carter Page
  • Ohr told Congress that the FBI was aware that his wife worked for Fusion GPS, but failed to disclose that to FISC
  • He also claims the FBI was aware of dossier author’s bias, but failed to disclose that to the secret court as well [DoJ top official throws Comey/McCabe/Strzok under the bus]
“When it comes to the dossier, the hours of testimony from Bruce Ohr only further confirm how wrong the FBI operated,” Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) told this news outlet…
John Solomon: Russian oligarch, Justice Department and a clear case of collusion
In September 2015, senior Department of Justice (DOJ) official Bruce Ohr and some FBI agents met in New York with Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska, to seek the Russian billionaire’s help on organized crime investigations. The meeting was facilitated — though not attended — by British intelligence operative Christopher Steele
    By 2015, Steele’s work had left him friendly with one of Deripaska’s lawyers, according to my sources. And when Ohr, then the associate deputy attorney general and a longtime acquaintance of Steele, sought help getting to meet Deripaska, Steele obliged…
Last night, Solomon said Ohr told Congress that Mueller has never contacted him!  Why Bob, why?
end
Christopher Steel worked for sanctioned Russian oligarch while he was composing the sham dossier.  Not only that but Bruce Ohr met with the Oligarch, Deripaska.  Which side had the Russian collusion?
(courtesy zerohedge)

Christopher Steele Worked For Sanctioned Russian Oligarch While Composing Sham Dossier: Solomon

Former MI6 agent Christopher Steele – the author of the largely unverified “Steele Dossier,” worked as a subcontractor for Russian billionaire and aluminum magnate Oleg Deripaska at the same time he was pontificating that Donald Trump’s alleged (and still unproven) ties to Russia amounted to treason, according to The Hill‘s John Solomon.

Steele’s firm, Orbis Business Intelligence, was hired by a law firm working for Deripaska in 2012, marking the beginning of a relationship which extended at least throughout 2016 according to Solomon. Steele was tasked with researching a business rival of Deripaska, however Steele’s work for the Russian billionaire evolved to the point where the former British spy was interfacing with the Obama administration on his behalf.

 

To that end, Steele and twice-demoted DOJ official Bruce Ohr communicated extensively about the Russian Oligarch as recently as February 2016, which included efforts to obtain a Visa for Deripaska to attend an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting int he US.

Deripaska is now banned from the United States as one of several Russians sanctioned in April in response to alleged 2016 election meddling.

Ohr, meanwhile, was demoted twice after the DOJ’s Inspector General discovered that he lied about his involvement with opposition research firm Fusion GPS co-founder Glenn Simpson – who employed Steele. Ohr’s CIA-linked wife, Nellie, was also  employed by Fusion as part of the firm’s anti-Trump efforts, and had ongoing communications with the ex-UK spy, Christopher Steele as well.

What’s more, Ohr met with Deripaska according to Solomon.

By 2015, Steele’s work had left him friendly with one of Deripaska’s lawyers, according to my sources. And when Ohr, then the associate deputy attorney general and a longtime acquaintance of Steele, sought help getting to meet Deripaska, Steele obliged.

Deripaska, who frequently has appeared alongside Russian President Vladimir Putin at high-profile meetings, never really dealt with Steele, but he followed his lawyer’s recommendations and met with Ohr, my sources say. –The Hill

The September 2015 meeting between Ohr, Deripaska and several FBI agents in New York sought the Russian billionaire’s assistance regarding organized crime investigations. That meeting was facilitated by Steele.

To recap: Bruce Ohr = the #4 official at the DOJ, met with a billionaire friend of Vladimir Putin, in a sit-down arranged by Christopher Steele. Steele and the DOJ, meanwhile, were accusing Donald Trump of collusion with Putin – while the Obama administration used Steele’s dodgy dossier to obtain a FISA warrant to spy on Trump campaign aide Carter Page.

Talk about actual collusion!

Chuck Ross@ChuckRossDC

Christopher Steele lobbied DOJ official Bruce Ohr on behalf of Putin- and Manafort-linked oligarch, Oleg Deripaska, per emails reviewed by @byronyork http://dailycaller.com/2018/08/09/christopher-steele-deripaska-bruce-ohr/  @dailycaller

Emails Show Christopher Steele Lobbied DOJ Official On Behalf Of Russian Oligarch

Steele was in close contact with Bruce Ohr

dailycaller.com

Chuck Ross@ChuckRossDC

Steele asked Ohr, the #4 official at DOJ, to “monitor” any developments in Deripaska’s visa case. Ohr said he would. Was Steele working for Deripaska? His attorney, Adam Waldman, registered under FARA for his work in lobbying for Deripaska’s visa. http://dailycaller.com/2018/08/09/christopher-steele-deripaska-bruce-ohr/  pic.twitter.com/AkIAxoRltg

View image on Twitter

Emails in 2016 between former British spy Christopher Steele and Justice Department official Bruce Ohr suggest Steele was deeply concerned about the legal status of a Putin-linked Russian oligarch, and at times seemed to be advocating on the oligarch’s behalf, in the same time period Steele worked on collecting the Russia-related allegations against Donald Trump that came to be known as the Trump dossier. The emails show Steele and Ohr were in frequent contact, that they intermingled talk about Steele’s research and the oligarch’s affairs, and that Glenn Simpson, head of the dirt-digging group Fusion GPS that hired Steele to compile the dossier, was also part of the ongoing conversation. –Washington Examiner

Sean Davis

@seanmdav

Dossier author Christopher Steele was likely working for Putin-linked Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska at the exact same time he was telling Hillary and the press that Trump’s alleged ties to Russia were treason. https://twitter.com/ByronYork/status/1027319008197050369 

Byron York

@ByronYork

New: Emails show 2016 links between Steele, Ohr, Simpson–with Russian oligarch in background. http://ow.ly/n2m130lkoRQ

Deripaska has denied any involvement with the Steele dossier, telling The Hill‘s Solomon in a statement: “The latest reckless media chatter proposes that I had some unspecified involvement in the so-called dossier. Like most of the absurd fantasies and smears that ricochet across the internet, it is utterly false. I had absolutely nothing to do with this project, and I never had any knowledge of it until it was reported in the media and I certainly wasn’t involved in any activity related to it.”

We’re sure Jeff Sessions is all over this…

Meanwhile, Bruce Ohr looked somewhat spooked walking into yesterday’s closed-door interview with Congressional investigators.

 

I will leave you tonight with this great interview of Danielle DiMartino Booth a former Fed insider.  Just listen to what she has to say
(courtesy DiMartino Booth/Greg Hunter)

Inflation Has Run Amok – Danielle DiMartino Booth

By Greg Hunter On August 29, 2018 In Market Analysis

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

Former Fed insider Danielle DiMartino Booth is sure the Fed is going to raise interest rates again at the September meeting. Why? DiMartino Booth explains, “I think he’s (Jerome Powell) the most independent Fed Chair in the past 30 years, and I think he’s going to raise rates regardless of what is happening in politics. . . . You don’t kowtow to political pressure when you need to do right by the economy. . . . Powell thinks the inflation numbers are under-reported. He’s listening to companies saying their profit margins are being squeezed . . . non- labor costs are outpacing labor costs by the greatest extent in three years, and what that tells you is inflation has run amok. . . . I think the Fed is going to continue to raise rates. . . . I think the markets have priced in the (September) rate hike by 90%. We may be looking forward to Jay Powell backing off come December. So, I am not really worried right now about a skyrocketing dollar.”

DiMartino Booth points out the biggest problem the world faces now is record global debt near $250 trillion “that few can conceive a workable solution.” Di Martino Booth says, “It really does keep me up at night because of the nature of debt. As we approach the 10 year anniversary of Lehman Brothers, the one takeaway that many have forgotten in the decade that has passed is that you don’t know where the true ticking time bomb is when there is an over-indebted problem. . . . When systemic risk is released, it cannot be contained by any higher authority and potentially be unleashed. The greatest peril of debt is we don’t know where the danger truly lies until something triggers it.”

Where could the next debt problem be? DiMartino Booth says, “There are trillions and trillions of dollars of leverage in this country that are not regulated by any entity and could cause problems in and of themselves. Can I rattle your memory with Angelo Mozilo and Countrywide? Again, a big company that was not regulated, and look at these problems, these subprime unregulated lenders caused way back when. If you want the parallel today, look at private equity and the trillions of dollars they control in our financial system where basically nobody is looking over them. The fox has taken over the hen house. That’s what keeps Jay Powell up at night, and that’s what keeps me up at night. . . . There is more leverage than in 2008. If you are gauging it on the fact that we used to have a $160 trillion to $170 trillion in global debt, and now we have $250 trillion in global debt, yes, things are worse. Things are definitely worse. ”

DiMartino Booth says the simple way to protect yourself is get out of debt. You can also do what the wealthy are doing. DiMartino Booth says, “I am no gold bug, but I can tell you gold is the ultimate hiding place. It is the ultimate place to hide when financial markets are disrupted because when financial markets are disrupted, all of them react in tandem. All of that hooey that you need to have a diversified portfolio, all of that falls apart with one exception, and that would be precious metals.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Danielle DiMartino Booth, the best-selling author of “Fed Up” and the founder of QuillIntelligence.com.

(This post talks about rising interest rates, record global debt, systemic risk and precious metals.)

Video Link

https://usawatchdog.com/inflation-has-run-amok- danielle-dimartino-booth/

-END-

WE WILL SEE YOU ON THURSDAY NIGHT.

 

 

HARVEY

 

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