SEPT 20/GOLD UP $2.80 TO $1206.70 WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TO $14.29/A MASSIVE 6.4 MILLION OZ OF PHYSICAL QUEUE JUMPING AT THE SILVER COMEX/DEMARK’S WHOLLY OWNED DANSK BANK IN ESTONIA REVEALS THAT MONEY LAUNDERING AMOUNTED TO IN EXCESS OF 234 BILLION DOLLARS AND WERE AIDED BY CITIBANK AND DEUTSCHE BANK/ IN THE USA THE BIG QUESTION IS WILL FORD TESTIFY/SEEMS THAT WE HAVE DEFIANCE IN THE UPPER ECHELON OF THE FBI AND DOJ AS THEY DO NOT WANT TO RELEASE DOCUMENTS THAT TRUMP HAS ALREADY DECLASSIFIED/

 

 

GOLD: $1206.70 UP  $2.80 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver:   $14.29  UP 3 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

Closing access prices:

Gold $1207.25

silver: $14.32

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold:

SEPT/

 

And now Sept:

WEDNESDAY

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR SEPT CONTRACT:  1 NOTICE(S) FOR 100 OZ 

Total number of notices filed so far for Sept:  609 for 60900 (1.8942 tonnes)

THURSDAY:

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR SEPT CONTRACT:  0 NOTICE(S) FOR 100 OZ 

Total number of notices filed so far for Sept:  609 for 60900 (1.8942 tonnes)

 

For silver: 

Sept

WEDNESDAY

147 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

735,000 OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 6199 for 30,995,000 oz

THURSDAY

707 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

3,535,000 OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 6906 for 34,530,000 oz

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Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE  $6420: UP  $31

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $6373  UP 30.00

 

end

First Shanghai gold fix comes at 10 pm est

The second Shanghai gold fix:  2:15 pm

First Shanghai gold fix gold: 10 pm est: $1210.92

NY price  at the same time:$1206.20

 

PREMIUM TO NY SPOT: $4.77

XX

Second gold fix early this morning: $ 1208.97

 

 

USA gold at the exact same time:$1204.90

 

PREMIUM TO NY SPOT:  $4.07

XXXX

 

China is controlling the gold market

WE WILL NOT PROVIDE LONDON FIXES AS THEY ARE NOT ACCURATE AS TO WHAT IS GOING ON AT THE SAME TIME FRAME.

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD 1363 CONTRACTS FROM 205,469 UP TO 206,832 WITH YESTERDAY’S 11 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE  MOVED FURTHER FROM  LAST MONTH’S RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY(WELL OVER 30 MILLION OZ AT THE COMEX FOR JULY , 6 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST AND NOW JUST LESS THAN 31 MILLION OZ STANDING IN SEPTEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A FAIR SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

24 EFP’S FOR SEPT.  1773 EFP’S FOR DECEMBER AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 1601 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1601 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1601 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 8.005MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 11 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR THE JUNE/2018 COMEX DELIVERY MONTH. (5.420 MILLION OZ);  30.370 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN JULY, FOR AUGUST: 6.065 MILLION OZ AND NOW 37.395 MILLION  OZ STANDING SO FAR IN SEPT.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF SEPT: 

25,188 CONTRACTS (FOR 13 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 25,188 CONTRACTS) OR 125.940 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1938 CONTRACTS OR 9.687 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF SEPT:  125.940 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 17.98% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:           2,163.76    MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018:                                              236.879     MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018:                                               244.95        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018:                                        236.67         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL 2018:                                           385.75         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MAY 2018:                                             210.05         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JUNE 2018:                                           345.43         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JULY 2018:                                            172.84          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR AUGUST 2018:                                      205.23          MILLION OZ.

RESULT: WE HAD A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1363 WITH THE 11 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX YESTERDAY. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1601  CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE GAINED A VERY GOOD SIZED: 2964 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 1601 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 1363  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 11 CENT RISE IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.26 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN THE BIG JULY DELIVERY MONTH OF SLIGHTLY OVER 30 MILLION OZ, IN AUGUST ANOTHER BIG 6.065 MILLION OZ IN A NON ACTIVE MONTH AND NOW IN SEPTEMBER AN INITIAL MONSTROUS 37.395 MILLION OZ OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY… NOBODY IS PAYING ATTENTION TO THE HUGE NUMBER OF PHYSICAL OUNCES STANDING FOR SILVER THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS.

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.034 MILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 145% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT AUGUST MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 707 NOTICE(S) FOR 3,535,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. AND NOW SEPT:  AN INITIAL HUGE 37.395 MILLION OZ.
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A VERY GOOD SIZED 4978 CONTRACTS UP TO 474,414 WITH THE GAIN IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/YESTERDAY’S TRADING (A RISE IN PRICE OF $5.70)THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 5414 CONTRACTS:

OCTOBER HAD EFP’S ISSUED AND, DECEMBER HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 5414 CONTACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 474,414. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN VERY GOOD SIZED OI GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 10,392 CONTRACTS:  4978 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 5414 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN:  10,392 CONTRACTS OR 1,039,200 OZ = 32.32 TONNES.  AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND  OCCURRED WITH A GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ YESTERDAY TO THE TUNE OF $5.70

 

 

 

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 5436 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT : 94940 CONTRACTS OR 9,494,000 OZ OR 295.30 TONNES (13 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 7303 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY OR 730300 OZ/ TRADING DAY),,

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 13 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 295.30 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 295.30/2550 x 100% TONNES =  11.58% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN JULY ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE:     5,492.09*  TONNES   *SURPASSED ANNUAL PROD’N

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018:           653.22  TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018:         649.45 TONNES  (20 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018:             741.89 TONNES  (22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR APRIL 2018:                 713.84 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MAY 2018:                   693.80 TONNES ( 22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JUNE 2018                      650.71 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JULY 2018                       605.5 TONNES     (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR AUG. 2018                      488.54  TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

Result: A VERY GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 4978 WITH THE GAIN IN PRICING ($5.70 THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) // .  WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 5414 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 5414 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD GOOD GAIN OF 10,392 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

5414 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 4978 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 32.32 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS HUGE DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A GAIN OF $5.70 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

 

 

we had: 0 notice(s) filed upon for NIL oz of gold at the comex.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD UP $2.80  TODAY: / 

A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .3 TONNES

AND THIS IS TO PAY FOR FEES

 

 

 

 

 

/GLD INVENTORY   742.23 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 742.23 tonnes.

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 3  CENTS TODAY

 

 

WE HAD NO CHANGES FOR SILVER :

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ.

 

NOTE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GLD AND SLV: THE CROOKS CAN RAID GOLD BECAUSE THEY DO HAVE SOME PHYSICAL.  THEY DO NOT RAID SILVER PROBABLY BECAUSE THERE IS NO REAL SILVER INVENTORIES BEHIND THEM

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 1363 CONTRACTS from 205,469 UP TO  206,832  AND MOVING A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST  MONTH AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

24 EFP CONTRACTS FOR SEPTEMBER, 1577 CONTRACTS FOR DECEMBER AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1601 CONTRACTS . EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 1363 CONTRACTS TO THE 1601 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A NET GAIN OF 2964 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 14.82 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST.. AND NOW A HUGE 37.395  MILLION OZ INITIALLY STAND FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER….

 

 

RESULT: A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 11 CENT PRICING GAIN THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING YESTERDAY. BUT WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED 1601 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

) THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed DOWN 1.61 POINTS OR 0.06%   /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 70.30 POINTS OR 0.26%/   / The Nikkei closed UP 2.41 POINTS OR 0.01%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.32%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.8495 AS POBC STOPS  ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER/Oil DOWN to 71.60 dollars per barrel for WTI and 79.30 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN //.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.8495 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8435: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOT DOING TOO GOOD   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING  WEAKER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING  STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

i

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA/

Kim asks for a 2nd summit with Trump and promises a swift surrender of their nuclear arsenal.  It seems that this is real and not a fake

( zerohedge)

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C/  CHINA

i)Tuesday night:

The Premier of China states that China will never devalue her currency to boost exports

( zerohedge)

ii)China in its latest trade war escalation with the USA, promises to lower tariffs on foreign imports other than USA to make the USA goods less competitive

( zerohedge)

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

EU/Denmark/Danske bank/USA

This could be devastating:  Danske bank’s Estonia’s wholly owned bank reveals that the laundering scandal swells to $234 billion dollars. The USA is now investigating as well.  It seems that Citibank and Deutsche bank were complicit in this laundering of illicit money mainly from Russia. This could quite possibly bring down the EU

( zerohedge)

ITALY
Italian bond yields rise as the 5 star coalition looks in jeopardy as Tria cannot find money for promises on the election campaign.  Brussels does not want Italy to break the 3% deficit to GDP rule
( zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Turkey/Thursday

Everything was fine with Turkey’s economic plan until the Fin Min. talked about restructuring the debt of  Turkey’s Development Bank…that sent the Lira tumbling

( zerohedge)

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

I really like Graham Summers who provides a short but correct analysis of the huge problem facing the globe:  the bubble in the bond market.  As you will recall, Alasdair Macleod also stated that this was the big problem facing the world and the higher yields will pierce the bubble setting the stage for USA hyperinflation

( Graham Summers)

 

 

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

Oil prices are rising and the Brent price is close to $80.00 per barrel.  Trump immediately warns OPEC that the USA protects its interests.  Thus if they do not lower prices then the uSA will no longer protect OPEC countries

( zerohedge)

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

VENEZUELA

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)A terrific commentary from Crescat and how the bursting of China’s bubble will be a huge lift for gold

( Crescat)

ii) Bill Holter’s commentary tonight is “FAKE”

iii)Stefan comments on Trump’s supposed talk with Gary Cohn: just keep printing despite the huge deficit.

a good read…

(Stefan Gleeson/Money Metals/GATA)

iv)This is unbelievable:  India has the capacity to produce 100 to 200 tonnes of gold per year from its oil soil but they instead they insist on being poor

( Times of India/GATA)

v)Demand for USA silver eagles at the mint is very strong

(courtesy Steve St Angelo/SRSRocco report)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

i)Market trading /GOLD/MARKET MOVERS:

MARKET TRADING

Early this morning:  this is deadly;  the 10 yr bond yield is up to 3.09% and the 30 yr at 3.25%. Please remember Graham Summers and Alasdair Macleod:  we will have a piercing of the bond prices (higher yields) which will bring down the entire global financial system

( zerohedge)

ii)Market data

In a strong economy we would see existing home sales rise.  They are falling and they are at the lowest level in 2 and 1/2 years.  And now inventory of unsold homes are rising.

( zerohedge)

 

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

a)Very strange:  Now Feinstein questions Ford’s truth.  The democrats want a full FBI probe BEFORE any hearing. However the FBI will not investigate this. I am relatively sure that Ford will not testify as there are three individuals named in her complaint that said that this event did not occur;
1. Judge
2 Smythe
3. Kavanaugh
( zerohedge)

b)Grassley states that he will not delay the Kavanaugh hearing as now all of the moderate Republicans fell in line as they realized that Ford will not testify.  It is in this commentary that we see the 3rd individual Smythe, who was named by Ford and basically states that the event never happened

( zerohedge)

C)  SHE NOW WISHES TO TESTIFY BUT UNDER CONDITIONS:

 

“She wishes to testify, provided that we can agree on terms that are fair and which ensure her safety.”

An outside lawyer will handle the questions instead of the 11 republican senators.
(courtesy zerohedge)

d)then this:  Ed Whelan former clerk to Antonin Scalia states that he expects “compelling evidence” to come to the forefront next week and that would exonate Kavanaugh completely.  He states that Feinstein will soon be apologizing.(courtesy zerohedge)

iv)SWAMP STORIES

a)The war begins as FBI and DOJ top officials are refusing to obey President Trump’s edict as the plan on insubordination.

This will turn out to be a huge war…

( zerohedge)

b)From the King report:
and a special thank you to Chris Powell of GATA for sending this to us
(King report/GATA/Chris Powell)
c)Watch your deep state in action:  Project Veritas reveals socialist employee admitting that he braks rules every day
( Project Veritas/zerohedge)

Let us head over to the comex:

 

The total gold comex open interest ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 4978 CONTRACTS UP to an OI level 474,414 WITH THE RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($5.70 GAIN/ YESTERDAY’S COMEX TRADING). FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE.

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A  GOOD SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 5414 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

OCTOBER: 0 EFP’S AND DECEMBER:  5414 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  5414 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A 10,392 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 5414 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED 5514 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  10,392 contracts OR 1,039,200 OZ OR 32.32 TONNES.

Result: A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST WITH THE RISE IN PRICE/ YESTERDAY (ENDING UP WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE OF $5.70). THE  TOTAL OPEN INTEREST GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  10,392 OI CONTRACTS..

We are now in the active contract month of SEPTEMBER. For the September contract month, we lost 1 contract and thus the number of  open interest contracts standing for gold in this front month is 17 contracts. We had 0 notice filed  yesterday so we gained 1 contract or an additional 100 oz will stand for gold and these guys refused to accept a fiat bonus and transfer to London.

 

 

 

 

 

THE NEXT ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IS  OCTOBER AND HERE THE OI LOST 751 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 32,623. NOVEMBER SAW A 4 CONTRACT GAIN TO STAND AT 192. DECEMBER SAW ITS OPEN INTEREST RISE BY 5677 CONTRACTS UP TO 367,480.

WE HAD 0 NOTICES FILED AT THE COMEX FOR NIL OZ.

 

FOR THE SEPT GOLD CONTRACT MONTH;

 

FOR COMEX SEPT/2017  FIRST DAY NOTICE GOLD:  80,700 OZ OR 2.696 TONNES INITIALLY STOOD

BY THE END OF SEPTEMBER:  57,700 OZ OR 1.797 TONNES FINALLY STOOD AS THE OTHERS MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

 

FOR THE OCTOBER CONTRACT MONTH: OCTOBER IS THE WEAKEST OF ALL DELIVERY MONTHS IN GOLD.

FOR THE COMEX OCT 2017 GOLD CONTRACT MONTH: WE INITIALLY HAD 300,600 OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY OR 9.349 TONNES.

AT THE CONCLUSION OF THE OCTOBER TRADING MONTH: 333,300 OZ OR 10.367 TONNES FINALLY STOOD FOR DELIVERY AS WE HAD ONE DAY OF QUEUE JUMPING.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 1363 CONTRACTS FROM 205,469 UP TO 206,832 (AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S OI COMEX LOSS OCCURRED WITH A 11 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPT.AND, WE WERE  INFORMED THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED 1601 EFP CONTRACTS:

FOR SEPT:  24 CONTRACTS  AND FOR DECEMBER: 1577 CONTRACTS AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS.  THESE EFPS WERE ISSUED TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 1601.  ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 2964 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A 1363 CONTRACT GAIN AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 1601 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:   2964 CONTRACTS…AND ALL OF  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 11 CENT GAIN

 

 

 

The next active delivery month after August for silver is September and here the OI ROSE by 262 contracts UP to 1280.

We had 147 notices filed on yesterday so we gained a monstrous 409 contracts or 2,045,000 ADDITIONAL oz will stand at the comex as these guys refused a fiat bonus as well as a London based forwards. For the past 17 months starting in April 2017, we have been witnessing on a constant basis queue jumping as the commercials seek physical silver immediately after first day notice. After a little holiday last week, queue jumping resumes in earnest  in the silver pits. In the past two days we gained a whopping 6.485 million oz as there seems to be a huge fire (shortage) of silver somewhere.

 

 

 

 

 

October LOST 6  contracts to stand at 534. November saw a GAIN of 19 contracts to stand at 174.

After Nov., the next big delivery month is December and here the OI fell by 833 contracts down to 176,574 contracts.

We had 70notice(s) filed for 3,535,000 OZ for the SEPTEMBER 2018 COMEX contract for silver

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

 

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY: 231,809 contracts

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  244,225 contracts

 

 

 

 

AND NOW FOR THE ACTIVE SEPTEMBER SILVER CONTRACT AND COMPARISON TO LAST YR:

 

 

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOR THE SEPT/2017 SILVER CONTRACT MONTH:  20.515 MILLION OZ STOOD FOR DELIVERY AND BY MONTH’S END:  A HUGE 32.875 MILLION OZ WAS THE FINAL STANDING AS WE WERE WELL INTO THE PHENOMENON OF QUEUE JUMPING IN SILVER. THUS WE ARE WAY AHEAD OF LAST YEAR AS ALREADY WE HAVE 37.395 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INITIALLY STAND.  AS I HAVE STATED ALL MONTH: “WE WILL NO DOUBT PASS LAST YEAR’S TOTAL OF 32.875 MILLION OZ ONCE SEPTEMBER ENDS AS THE BANKS SCRAMBLE FOR PHYSICAL SILVER.”  i GUESS I WAS RIGHT!!

 

AND NOW COMPARISON FOR OCTOBER:

 

FOR THE OCTOBER 2017 CONTRACT MONTH WE HAD 4.205,000 OZ OF SILVER INITIALLY STAND FOR DELIVERY.

BY MONTH’S END WE HAD 5,475,000 OZ FINALLY STAND AS QUEUE JUMPING IN SILVER WAS ALREADY IN THE NORM.

OCTOBER IS A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH FOR SILVER BUT AS YOU CAN SEE OCT 2017 DELIVERIES WERE PRETTY

GOOD.

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for SEPTEMBER/GOLD

SEPT. 20-/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 niloz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

NIL

 

oz

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
0 notice(s)
 NIL OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
17 contracts
(1700 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
609 notices
60900 OZ
1.8942 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

today we had no major activity at  the comex and  no gold  entered the comex vaults yesterday and today.

 

we had 0 kilobar transaction/
We had 0 inventory movement at the dealer accounts
total inventory deposit into the dealer accounts:  NIL  oz
total inventory withdrawals out of dealer accounts; nil oz
we had 0 withdrawal out of the customer account:
total customer withdrawals:  nil oz
we had 0 customer deposit
total customer deposits: nil oz
we had 0 adjustments

FOR THE SEPTEMBER 2018 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 0 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the SEPT/2018. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (609) x 100 oz or 60,900 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT. (17 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (0 x 100 oz per contract) equals 62,600 OZ OR 1.9471 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this non active month of SEPT

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPT/2018 contract month:

No of notices served (609 x 100 oz)  + {17)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (0 x 100 oz )which equals 62,600 oz standing OR 1.9471 TONNES in this NON  active delivery month of SEPTEMBER.

We gained 1 contract or an additional nil oz will stand for physical gold at the comex and these guys refused to accept a fiat bonus to move their contracts over to Londonas queue jumping in gold intensifies.  Let us see if this continues throughout the month as it looks like the commercials are scrambling to obtain any physical gold they get a hold of.

 

 

 

 

 

THERE ARE ONLY 4.511 TONNES OF REGISTERED COMEX GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 1.9471 TONNES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER  

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  145,041.066 oz or   4.511tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,270,816.984 oz 257.26 tonnes

IN THE LAST 25 MONTHS 98 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE AUGUST DELIVERY MONTH

SEPTEMBER INITIAL standings/SILVER

SEPT. 20/ 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 534,719.620 oz
Brinks
Scotia

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil
oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
697,117.450
oz
Brinks
No of oz served today (contracts)
707
CONTRACT(S)
3,535,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
573 contract
(2,865,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 6906 contracts

(34,530,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 142.435 million oz of  total silver inventory or 48.9% of all official comex silver. (142 million/291 million)

ii) Into Brinks:  697,117.450 OZ

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today: 697,117.450 oz

we had  2 withdrawals from the customer account;

i) Out of Brinks: 230,819.04 oz

ii) Out of Scotia: 303.900.790 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals: 534,719.620  oz

we had 1  adjustment

i) Out of CNTL

6,700,703.410 oz leaves the dealer and enters the customer account of CNT

 

 

 

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  83.999 million

total dealer + customer silver:  291.993 million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the SEPTEMBER 2018. contract month is represented by 707 contract(s) FOR 3,535,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPT., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 6906 x 5,000 oz = 34,530,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPTEMBER. (1280) and the number of notices served upon today (707 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the SEPT/2018 contract month: 6906(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of SEPTEMBER(1280) -number of notices served upon today (707)x 5000 oz equals 37,395,000 oz of silver standing for the SEPT contract month.  This is a huge number of oz standing!!

We gained 10 contracts or an additional 50,000 oz will stand at the comex as these guy refused to morph into London based forwards as well as refusing a fiat bonus

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY:  81,176 CONTRACTS   

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 81956 CONTRACTS..

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 81,956 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO 409 million OZ  OR 58.54% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -3.53% (SEPT.20/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -1.65% to NAV (SEPT 20/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -3.53%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.21/TRADING 11.73/DISCOUNT 3.87.

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

SEPT 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.80/A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .3 TONNES AND THIS IS TO PAY FOR FEES/742.23 TONNES

SEPT 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.53 TONNES

SEPT 17/WITH GOLD UP $5.20: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.53 TONNES

SEPT 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.95 TODAY, ANOTHER HUGE 2.65 TONNES OF GOLD WAS REMOVED FROM INVENTORY AT THE GLD..PRETTY SOON WE WILL HAVE ZERO INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.53 TONNES

SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 745.18 TONNES

SEPT 12/WITH GOLD UP $8.00 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 745.18 TONNES

SEPT 11/WITH GOLD UP $3.00 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF .26 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 745.18 TONNES

SEPT 10/WITH GOLD DOWN 80 CENTS/ANOTHER HUGE 1.44 TONNES OF WITHDRAWAL FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 745.44 TONNES

SEPT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.75: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 746.92 TONNES

SEPT 6/WITH GOLD UP $3.05 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 746.92

SEPT 5/WITH GOLD UP $2.30 TODAY, WE HAD ANOTHER WHOPPER OF A WITHDRAWAL:  6.24 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.92 TONNES

SEPT 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65: ANOTHER 2.65 TONNES OF GOLD LEAVE THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.16 TONNES/

AUGUST 31/WITH GOLD UP $2.15:ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.06 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.81 TONNES

AUGUST 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.90: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.87 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.90 (COMEX TO COMEX BUT UP 6.00 DOLLARS FROM ACCESS CLOSING) THE CROOKS RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR ONCE AGAIN TO THE TUNE OF 4.71 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.87 TONNES AFTER THE WITHDRAWAL.

AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.60: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.58 TONNES

AUGUST 27/WITH GOLD UP ANOTHER $3.00: ANOTHER SURPRISE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.65 TONNES FROM THE GLD/SHAREHOLDERS OF GLD ARE DUMB OWING THIS CRAP/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.58 TONNES

AUGUST 24/WITH GOLD UP $18.65 TODAY/A SURPRISE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.53 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 767.23 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.20: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 768.70 TONNES

AUGUST 22/WITH GOLD UP $3.45: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTSAT 768.70 TONNES

AUGUST 21: WITH GOLD UP $5.75/A  BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.54 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 768.70 TONNES

AUGUST 20/WITH GOLD UP $10.20./ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 772.24 TONNES

 

AUGUST 17/WITH GOLD UP 20 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 773.41 TONNES

AUGUST 16/LATE LAST NIGHT, WITH GOLD DOWN $1.05: THE CROOKS RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR ONCE AGAIN: THIS TIME BY 2.06 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 774.59 TONNES, AND THEN JUST NOW ANOTHER 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD WITHDRAWN TO LEAVE THE INVENTORY LEVEL OF 773.41 TONNES/

AUGUST 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $15.15/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 776.65 TONNES

AUGUST 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $0.45, A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 9.43 TONNES//INVENTORY RESTS AT 776.65 TONNES

AUGUST 13/with gold down $18.00: no changes in gold inventory at the crooked GLD/inventory rests at 786.08 tonnes

AUGUST 10/WITH GOLD DOWN 55 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 786.08 TONNES

AUGUST 9/WITH GOLD DOWN BY 70 CENTS, OUR BANKERS AGAIN RAIDED THE GOLD COOKIE JAR TO THE TUNE OF 1.45 TONNES AND THUS THE INVENTORY RESTS AT 786.08 TONNES.ANYBODY HOLDING GOLD AT THE COMEX MUST REMOVE THEIR GOLD IMMEDIATELY AND PLACE IT IN A PRIVATE NON BANK  OR CALL ANDREW MAGUIRE AT KINESIS

AUGUST 8/WITH GOLD UP ANOTHER $2.75, OUR BANKERS MUST BE DESPERATE AS THEY RAIDED THE GOLD COOKIE JAR AGAIN TO THE TUNE OF 1.18 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS TONIGHT AT 788.71 TONNES. ANYBODY WHO KEEPS HIS GOLD AT THE COMEX IS VERY FOOLISH..ALL GOLD AT THE COMEX IS UNALLOCATED.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

SEPT 20/2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 742.23 tonnes

*IN LAST 460 TRADING DAYS: 188,48 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 360 TRADING DAYS: A NET 31.94 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

SEPT 20/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 17/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.316 MILLION OZ OF SILVER ENTERS SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 12/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.657 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 11./WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY/WE HAD NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.657 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 10.WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY, WE HAD ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 940,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.657 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS (AND DOWN 48 CENTS FOR THE WEEK): WE HAD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.008 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TO: A SLIGHT CHANGE, A WITHDRAWAL OF 147,000 OZ AND THIS IS TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.709 MILLION OZ/

 

SEPT 5./WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.856 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.856 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 31/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.856 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY, A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 742,000 AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.856 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 27/WITH SILVERUP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 24./WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 1 CENT/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 21/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 20/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/.INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ.

AUGUST 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 16/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A DEPOSIT OF 1.881 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 56 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 327.223 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 14/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 327.223 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 13./with silver down 31 cents today: no changes in silver inventory/inventory rests at 327.223 million oz/

AUGUST 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTOR: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.222 MILLION OZ  FROM THE SLV INVENTORY /INVENTORY RESTS AT 327.223 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 9/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY /INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.445 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 8/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.445 MILLION OZ

 

 

 

SEPT 20/2018:

Inventory 334.973 MILLION OZ

 

6 Month MM GOFO 2.05/ and libor 6 month duration 2.57

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0FO+ 2.05

 

libor 2.57 FOR 6 MONTHS/

GOLD LENDING RATE: .52%

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.47%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.89

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.42

end

 

Major gold/silver trading /commentaries for THURSDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.

 

Dalio Warns Of Dollar Crisis – “History Is Doomed To Repeat Itself”

– “History is due to repeat itself” warns Ray Dalio on Bloomberg
– “I think it will be more of a dollar crisis than a debt crisis” says Bridgewater Founder

– “It will be more of a political and social crisis…”
– “Balance is key” and if going to be active investor, you need to be contrarian and “buy when there is blood in the streets”
– Bridgewater continues to own gold and Dalio views gold as a currency and as money
– “It’s not sensible not to own gold…” Dalio told the CFR

Watch Bloomberg Markets and Finance video via YouTube here

 

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News and Commentary

 

S&P 500, Dow up as rising treasury yields boost banks (Reuters.com)

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Source: Bloomberg

Gold ‘Break Out’ Is Expected – Probis Securities’ Barratt Says (Bloomberg.com)

China’s premier insists it’s not devaluing the yuan (Bloomberg.com)

A warning from the goldmining boom to today’s cryptocurrency investors (Moneyweek.com)

‘Voodoo economics’ is about to kill this bull market, warns Nouriel Roubini (Marketwatch.com)

Listen on SoundCloud , Blubrry & iTunesWatch on YouTube below


Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

19 Sep: USD 1,203.00, GBP 912.48 & EUR 1,028.44 per ounce
18 Sep: USD 1,199.40, GBP 913.94 & EUR 1,026.81 per ounce
17 Sep: USD 1,196.80, GBP 914.00 & EUR 1,027.21 per ounce
14 Sep: USD 1,206.20, GBP 918.76 & EUR 1,030.58 per ounce
13 Sep: USD 1,206.65, GBP 924.41 & EUR 1,038.68 per ounce
12 Sep: USD 1,197.80, GBP 919.07 & EUR 1,033.10 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

19 Sep: USD 14.18, GBP 10.76 & EUR 12.13 per ounce
18 Sep: USD 14.21, GBP 10.81 & EUR 12.16 per ounce
17 Sep: USD 14.17, GBP 10.81 & EUR 12.15 per ounce
14 Sep: USD 14.22, GBP 10.83 & EUR 12.15 per ounce
13 Sep: USD 14.23, GBP 10.90 & EUR 12.24 per ounce
12 Sep: USD 14.16, GBP 10.90 & EUR 12.22 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– Silver Guru Video: “The End of Empire and End of Fiat Currencies”
– Silver Is ‘Undervalued’ Relative to Stocks, Bonds, Gold – GoldCore
– We Are In “Never Never Land” Accounting As U.S. Government Is “Missing” $21 Trillion
– This Week’s Golden Nuggets – BOE Warns Of UK House Price Crash
– Video: BREXIT To Contribute To London Property Bubble Bursting
– Australia’s Banking System May Be The “Bloody Big Butterfly” Which Triggers Next “Financial Storm”
– Ten Years Since Lehman: Biggest Driver of 2008 Financial Crisis Has Only Got Worse
– London Property: Here Comes the Crash
– This Week’s Golden Nuggets
– Gold Remains An “Excellent Way to Hedge” for Longer Term – BNP Interview
– Video: Gold Surges To Record Highs In Emerging Market Currencies – New Highs In USD, EUR, GBP In the Coming Months?
– September Is The Best Month For Gold and Worst Month For Stocks

 

david russell
END
 
ANDREW MAGUIRE’S KINESIS WHICH IS A”BITCOIN’ BACKED 100% BY ALLOCATED GOLD AND SILVER

Andrew Maguire’s Kinesis money which is a “bitcoin” but backed 100% by allocated gold and silver is set to go.

it think it would be a great idea to look at this!

please read at:  https://kinesis.money/#/

(Andrew Maguire)

 Dear Harvey Organ,

Thank you for your participation in our webinar on June 7th with our host and CEO of Kinesis, Thomas Coughlin.

The response we received has been incredible, we appreciate you taking the time to join us and hope you found it to be beneficial.

Due to such a high influx of questions we received we were unable to have them all answered. Nevertheless, if there was anything which requires more clarification, or you have a query which needs to be rectified, we invite you to join our telegram group:

https://t.me/kinesismoney

We apologize for the technical issues we incurred during the webinar which resulted in it running a little over schedule, we hope that the next one we host will run seamlessly.

A video has been put together and uploaded onto our YouTube channel which can be found here:

Kinesis Webinar

Please share and subscribe to our YouTube channel to be notified of all the latest videos as they become available.

The rapid growth that we are currently experiencing has been incredible and with your support, is only going to get better.

We are working behind the scenes very hard to create a better experience for everyone involved! Stay tuned in as we have many more announcements to be released in the upcoming days.

Kind Regards,

Kinesis Money
a:C/O ILS Fiduciaries (IOM) Limited, First Floor,Millennium House, Victoria Road, Douglas, Isle of Man IM2 4RW
    
END

 

The following is self explanatory

(courtesy GATA/Chris Powell and Harvey Organ)

GATA asks bank regulator to check risks of gold

futures maneuver

 Section: 

12:21p ET Sunday, June 10, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GATA has appealed to the U.S. comptroller of the currency, who has regulatory authority over banks, to review financial risks certain banks may have incurred through derivatives in the monetary metals markets, particularly through the recent heavy use of the “exchange for physicals” mechanism of settling gold and silver futures contracts on the New York Commodities Exchange.

The appeal was made in a letter sent May 5 to the comptroller, Joseph M. Otting, whose office is part of the U.S. Treasury Department, by your secretary/treasurer and GATA futures market consultant Harvey Organ.

“Exchange for physical” settlements of futures contracts long were considered emergency procedures when a seller was not able to deliver metal from an exchange-approved warehouse and wanted to settle with delivery elsewhere. But now such settlements appear to constitute most gold and silver futures settlements on the Comex. It is a strange development that appears to have been necessitated by the increasing difficulties of central banking’s gold and silver price suppression policy.

GATA has received no acknowledgment of the letter. Its text is below and a PDF copy of it is here:

http://www.gata.org/files/ComptrollerOfCurrencyLetter.pdf

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

May 5, 2018

Joseph M. Otting, Comptroller of the Currency
U.S. Treasury Department
400 7th Street, SW
Washington DC 20219

Dear Comptroller Otting:

Please let us bring to your attention financial risks to major banks involving their possibly unreported exposure to derivatives in the monetary metals markets.

In recent months gold and silver future contracts issued by U.S. banks on the New York Commodities Exchange have been moved off-exchange for delivery through a mechanism known as “exchange for physical” (EFP) contracts. Until recently use of this mechanism was considered an emergency procedure when a seller did not have access to metal for delivery through Comex warehouses. Now the mechanism seems to be in use for a large share of front-month contracts for which delivery is sought.

Here is an example that is happening at the Comex in the front active month of April for gold and the inactive delivery month of April for silver.

In gold, there were 229,436 EFP contracts for 713.64 tonnes, an average of 10,925 contracts and 1,092,500 ounces per trading day.

In silver, there were 77,150 EFP contracts for 385,750,000 ounces, an average of 3,673 contracts and 18,369,000 ounces per trading day.

London Bullion Market Association rules suggest that these contracts may not be reported to regulators. The LBMA’s bylaws say:

“Figures above exclude any contracts not subject to risk-based capital requirements, such as FX contracts with an original maturity of 14 days or less, futures contracts, written options, and basis swaps. Therefore, the total notional amount of derivatives by maturity will not add to the total derivatives figure in this table.”

We are told that these EFP contracts are transferred from the Comex to London as what are called “serial forwards” and their duration is always less than 14 days, which exempts them from being reported.

It is our understanding that in each quarter your office prepares a report detailing risk undertaken by the banks under the comptroller’s supervision.

These risks include derivatives undertaken by U.S. banks and other obligations that may cause a bank to fail. Our concern is that your office may not be aware of large unreported derivative exposure by banks.

Could you review this matter and let us know your conclusions?

Sincerely,

CHRIS POWELL
Secretary/Treasurer

HARVEY ORGAN
Consultant

Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
7 Villa Louisa Road
Manchester, Connecticut 06043-7541

end

Finally, they replied and it was a complete brush off

(courtesy zerohedge)

Currency comptroller brushes off GATA’s inquiry on

gold, silver EFPs

 Section: 

11:35a ET Friday, August 10, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The U.S. comptroller of the currency, a bank regulator, has declined GATA’s request to inquire into the strange explosion of the use of the emergency procedure of “exchange for physicals” in the settlement by banks of the gold and silver futures contracts they have sold on the New York Commodities Exchange.

Your secretary/treasurer and GATA’s consultant about the Comex, Harvey Organ, wrote to the comptroller, James M. Otting, on May 5, calling attention to the recent enormous use of EFPs, which implies derivatives risks being undertaken by U.S. banks that could cause the banks to fail:

http://www.gata.org/node/18303

“Our concern is that your office may not be aware of large unreported derivative exposure by banks,” GATA wrote.

As months passed without any acknowledgment from the comptroller’s office, your secretary/treasurer appealed to his U.S. representative, John B. Larson, D-Connecticut, to ask the comptroller’s office to reply. The congressman’s office made a second inquiry on Monday this week and today the comptroller’s office provided Larson with a copy of a reply written and mailed Wednesday.

The comptroller’s reply, signed by the deputy comptroller for public affairs, Bryan Hubbard, said only that the comptroller’s office has “dedicated examiners” at the largest banks who “continuously evaluate the credit, market, operational, reputation, and compliance risks of bank trading and derivative activities.”

The reply did not say anything about the use of the “exchange for physicals” procedure for settling futures contracts. That is, the reply was a begrudged brushoff and GATA’s letter would have been ignored completely if not for Representative Larson’s repeated intervention.

Of course GATA hardly expected a conscientious reply to its letter, the comptroller’s office being not an independent regulator but part of the Treasury Department, whose mandate includes administration of the Gold Reserve Act of 1934, which, as amended in the 1970s, authorizes the department’s Exchange Stabilization Fund to secretly intervene in and rig any market in the world, directly or through intermediaries:

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/international/ESF/Pages/esf-ind…

But there’s always value in demonstrating government’s lack of candor about what it is doing, especially in regard to the monetary metals.

A PDF copy of the reply from the comptroller’s office is posted at GATA’s internet site here:

http://www.gata.org/files/ComptrollerOfCurrencyReply-08-08-2018.pdf

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

A terrific commentary from Crescat and how the bursting of China’s bubble will be a huge lift for gold

(courtesy Crescat)

Crescat: The Hamstrung Fed, Gold, & The Bursting Of

China’s “Mother Of All Credit Bubbles”

Crescat Capital’s Q2 letter to investors focuses on three key macro ideas that are complementary plays on the unwinding of currency and financial asset bubbles at a likely peak of a global capital cycle, the most leveraged in history:

  1. Shorting US stocks at proven, historic-high valuations relative to underlying fundamentals with abundant catalysts for a near-term bear market leading to a US recession;
  2. Shorting the overvalued and weakening Chinese yuan and China contagion plays to express the unwinding of a credit bubble that is unprecedented in scale and already bursting; and
  3. Buying precious metals commodities at record deep value compared to the global fiat monetary base and related miners at record cheapness to the underlying fundamentals with an increasing number of important new signals showing rising US and global inflationary pressures and a hamstrung Federal Reserve that is unable to stop them.

These themes represent what we believe are the biggest macro imbalances in the world today.

The Hamstrung Fed

The Fed is raising interest rates late in the economic cycle. The problem is that inflationary pressures have finally reached a critical mass where they have rendered the Fed’s monetary policy ineffective. The Fed cannot fight inflation and prevent financial asset bubbles from deflating at the same time.

… Even while pushing to new highs recently, the US stock market is running out of steam. Market internals are weakening across multiple breadth indicators. These indicators are diverging compared to the January prior high in the S&P 500: substantially lower new 52-wk highs, much lower % of stocks above 70 on RSI, and much lower percent of stocks above 200-dma. We strongly believe the US stock market is poised to follow the rest of the world down.

The Fed is hamstrung because, while it has been raising rates, it continues to run a hot monetary policy in the US, one that is still way too loose to fight rising domestic inflationary pressures according to our model as well as the Fed’s own Taylor Rule. Rising M2 money velocity is one sign of rising inflationary pressure today that many people have overlooked. For much of the last decade, money velocity has been declining, but it has recently broken out of a long-term downtrend as we show in the chart below.

… Per Crescat’s model, the neutral Fed funds rate that would be necessary to control rising inflationary pressures today is 5.5%. The current Fed funds rate, however, is only 2%. Our research is based on the history of a breadth of inflation and labor market indicators and the Fed Funds rate going back to 1971.

When the Fed keeps interest rates too low for too long, it creates financial asset bubbles that it has difficulty extricating itself from. If the Fed were to raise interest rates by 3.5% to get to the neutral rate to prevent rising inflation, it would be catastrophic for today’s financial asset bubbles. Doing so would massively invert the yield curve, crash the stock and credit markets, and create a recession. Such is the tradeoff between inflation and financial asset bubble deflation that we face today.

It is clear that aggregate US financial asset valuations are at excessive, all-time highs, by looking at the ratio of financial assets to income as shown below. Today’s US equity and credit markets valuations combined are what we call MOAB, the mother of all bubbles:

It doesn’t matter whether we have stable low inflation, inflation, or deflation, valuation multiples are simply too high today and will shrink in all cases based on history. The market is simply discounting way too much future growth and is not discounting a recession.

China Credit Currency and Credit Bust

While the mother of all financial asset bubbles is represented by US stocks and credit today, China represents the mother of all credit bubbles based on its massively overvalued currency and banking system.

In June, we showed how Crescat can perform as the China credit bubble just started to burst. Crescat Global Macro Fund was one of the top hedge funds through June YTD thanks to our significant yuan short position and other China credit bust plays. We strongly believe there is so much more to play out, especially with respect to China’s currency devaluation.

China has been the fastest growing major GDP economy in the world, contributing over 50% of global GDP growth since the Global Financial Crisis. But the China miracle has all been accomplished by unsustainable debt growth, non-productive capital investment, and a massive hidden non-performing loan problem. China’s NPLs are estimated at close to USD 10 trillion according to one respected China credit analyst, Charlene Chu, at Autonomous Research. Our analysis concurs. We published our most in-depth China credit bubble research letter last year and we believe that China is now entering a recession that would occur with or without Donald Trump’s trade war which is hastening it.

As shown in the charts below, China’s massive and unsustainable banking asset growth represents a substantially bigger banking imbalance than that of the US prior to the Global Financial Crisis and a bigger imbalance than the EU banking bubble prior to the European Sovereign Debt Crisis.

Precious Metals

Gold is cheapest ever in history compared to the global fiat monetary base as we recently showed.

Silver is historically cheap to gold. Miners are historically cheap to their own fundamentals, and even cheaper when one considers depressed gold and silver prices today. Precious metals are the ultimate inflation hedge and haven asset of our two MOABs, China credit bubble and the US financial asset bubble burst. Too many investors fear another deflationary bust if they fear one at all. Asset bubbles will certainly deflate. But real economy deflation is the last war. The Fed has already proven in the last cycle that money printing conclusively can beat deflation. We have shown above the many signs of rising inflation today, from rising money velocity, to de-globalization, to new higher fiscal deficits from tax cuts, to Phillips Curve pressures, to Crescat and Fed models that show the Fed still way too accommodative to stop rising inflation. The Fed is currently rendered ineffective in fighting inflation because any serious effort to do so would risk bursting record financial asset bubbles.

Therefore, if we could own just one asset class to hedge against ultimately rising inflation as record financial asset bubbles are bursting, it’s precious metals. Next to the US dollar, gold remains the most ubiquitous central bank reserve asset in the world and global central banks have been net acquirers of it since it bottomed in 2015.

We want to be on the same side of central banks.

The recent weakness in gold combined with record speculative short interest presents a great deep-value buy today for gold.

Read more here…

end

A good one tonight from Bill Holter..

Bill Holter…

Life is different than it used to be in many ways. The pace is certainly much faster. Making ends meet, or even getting ahead is much more difficult than was just 20 years ago. Information overload is another recent problem that did not used to exist. While I am thinking about it, the following is my opinion which as of now, I am still allowed?

The most obvious change has been “technology”. We now have cell phones (actually portable computers), computers, GPS in more efficient autos, movies and TV on demand, social media, etc. etc.. All of these things were supposed to make life more efficient and thus easier. I would say they have, and they also have not because of some of the unintended (intended) consequences. Just a simple example would be video games. Kids used to be outside all the time and playing games or sports, now they are glued to a screen “gaming”. Forget about the fact these kids grow up out of shape, gaming affects the way these kids think. I would submit it also affects the way parents think, so many today consider video games, hand held or otherwise as a free “babysitter”?

The world has also changed in many other ways but I want to focus on just one because it is THE BIGGEST change and possibly the least seen, known or understood. Put simply, the world has become “fake” in so many ways, yet the average person believes it is all quite real.

Our world today is very fake from A-Z no matter what angle you look. Let’s look at the most basic of all, food. Fruits and veggies? GMO. “Seedless” seems pretty good because you no longer need to spit them out …but what if you wanted to do something crazy like plant the seeds to grow your own? How about meat? Hormones added? Do you have any idea how many products have “soy” added? And you wonder why the world has so many soy boys running around? Food is the most basic of all and the old saying “you are what you eat” is certainly true. However, much of what we eat is vitamin deficient and FAKE and leads to illness!

Speaking of illness, at the risk of the pharmaceutical industry putting a hit out on me and my horse, do you have any idea how many needless drugs are taken each day? Yes, some drugs are entirely necessary but others are not. Look at high blood pressure medications, what about exercising regularly and eating properly? Was high blood pressure an epidemic 100 years ago? Maybe our diet has something to do with it?

And depression drugs? Was this an epidemic in the past? And what percentage takes Xanax and others today? I would simply ask if real food products might put a couple of industries out of business?

Ah, and the “news”? Even though we live in a world with instant information, much (the majority) of what we get bombarded with is false. I would add, not just wrong but purposely wrong. Purposely wrong because no other aspect of “you” is more important than your mind. Which of course is why our tax money goes to schools with propagandists as teachers. I have said many times (and been berated for the opinion), if I had a kid today I would send them to trade school rather than college. I cannot imagine anything worse than spending $250,000 for my child to come back home after 4 years as a wilting snowflake 100% sure I am a capitalistic pig because I believe in self reliance and the liberty to pursue it.

Fake news is so bad, even the weather channel has gotten into it …

I could of course morph into “weather modification” but that topic is far too in depth for this writing. As for the media, CNN et al speak for themselves. Their reporting is so blatantly false they need social media to suppress the reality. If truth pops its head up, it either gets labeled fake, shouted down or erased as “hate”. They serve nothing but bullshit on their menus disguised as yummy Swiss chocolate.

How about fake “economic numbers” that have been coming out for years, no matter who was president? 2% inflation? 3.9% unemployment? Really? Or what about reported positive GDP growth while running 5% budget deficits? Has anyone thought about what the numbers would really look like if we had NO deficit spending?

These economic numbers are of course used to justify markets inflating to ridiculous levels (and they say we have very low inflation?). Jim terms it as “MOPE”, management of perspective economics. Basically, lie about the economic numbers, ramp up the markets and no one will be the wiser …and they might just go out and add to their credit card balances because they “feel good”? While I am on this section, do you really believe the numbers on your bank/broker statements? I guess another way to put this is via your retirement promises. The world has unfunded pension liabilities in the $ trillions. Do you really believe you can work for a broke entity, with an underfunded pension, and expect to retire and ride off into a glorious sunset? Really?

What about the law? Is the current DOJ or FBI “real” as we once knew them? I am not talking about the rank and file, I am talking about leadership. And as for leadership, how real was our last president? Everything, and I do mean EVERYTHING about him is classified and sealed. You could search “Joe Blow” and get more information than on Mr. Hussein. Foreign student loans? How about grades in school? Or certainly college? I might even be satisfied if someone, somewhere at least said they knew the man in school? But no. I am sure they were just mistakes but how many time did the words “Michael” or “my Muslim faith” come out of his mouth? Again, America “faked out”?

Moving along and closer to the target, let’s talk about “debt”. In today’s fake world, debt has become the equivalent of an asset …or even better. Debt is used by governments, corporations and of course individuals to hide any decline in standard of living for appearance purposes. This goes back to GDP, without deficit spending the US would have been in recession for many years. I would ask, if one never needed to pay off a credit (and could borrow from another credit card to make monthly payments), wouldn’t we all be traveling by private jet scoffing down caviar (not Russian of course) and swilling champagne? Debt is number 2 on the list of why nearly everything in our world is fake.

Number one on the list, which is always the case when empires crack up is the money itself. Since 1971, the dollar nor any other currency on the planet (with the Swiss holding out for about 30 years) has had any real backing at all. The money has been and is FAKE. If you get nothing else from this writing, please understand that ALL falsehood is spawned by fake money in one form or fashion. Basically, people perform real labor for fake money. They save in fake money. They count their net worth in fake money.

Why? Because they become convinced the money is real and just as good as what it replaced. Once this lie is swallowed hook line and sinker, the rest is easy! Once you can get someone to work for fake money (essentially free), you can then slowly get them to believe anything you want no matter how outrageous! Black is white, up is down, people are genderless except there are 23 different genders …

The bottom line I believe is this. Do not rely on being spoon fed information. Dig for yourself because just as with anything else, no one is going to do it for you (especially not a socialist state!). I don’t know how this will end except being a Christian I have to believe light will prevail over darkness and lies. Never could you have made me believe even after 911 that the world could be faked as totally as it is today. I guess in my naivete I never dreamed people could be so lazy and gullible?

Standing watch,
Bill Holter
Holter-Sinclair collaboration
Comments welcome bholter@hotmail.com

END

Stefan comments on Trump’s supposed talk with Gary Cohn: just keep printing despite the huge deficit.

 

a good read…

 

 

(Stefan Gleeson/Money Metals/GATA)

 

Stefan Gleason: Trump’s back-door power play to rein in the Fed

 Section: 

By Stefan Gleason
Money Metals News Service
Tuesday, September 18, 2018

“Just run the presses — print money.”

That’s what President Donald Trump supposedly instructed his former chief economic adviser, Gary Cohn, to do in response to the budget deficit. The quote appears in Bob Woodward’s controversial book “Fear: Trump in the White House.”

Trump disputes many of the anecdotes Woodward assembled. But regardless of whether the president used those exact words, they do reflect an “easy money” philosophy that he has expressed many times before. …

… For the remainder of the commentary:

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2018/09/18/trumps-power-play-fed-001619

END

This will happen to South Africa as well…Zimbabwe  has run out of money to pay miners so they must pay in gold.

(courtesy Bloomberg/GATA)

Zimbabwe miner may pay suppliers in gold amid national cash shortage

 Section: 

Another rich country insisting on being poor instead of digging its own money out of its own ground.

* * *

Metallon May Pay Suppliers in Gold Amid Zimbabwe Cash Shortage

By Godfrey Marawanyika
Bloomberg News
Tuesday, September 18, 2018

Metallon Corp. is considering paying mining-equipment suppliers in gold because a cash shortage in Zimbabwe is hampering its plan to expand output, Chief Executive Officer Mzi Khumalo said.

Zimbabwe, which abandoned its own currency in 2009 because of hyperinflation, has faced cash shortages for at least the past two years as businesses and individuals moved money offshore and the import bill increased after exports collapsed. The country’s biggest gold miner needs at least $400 million to buy new machinery and upgrade existing equipment as it targets a fourfold increase in production.

Metallon has held talks with equipment suppliers in South Africa and Canada, among other countries, Khumalo, 62, said in an interview at his home in the capital, Harare. Zimbabwean law enables the company to convert leases on claims around its four mines into special mining leases that can then be used to secure financing for its equipment purchases, he said.

“We can then enter agreements with banks, various financiers on the basis of gold-backed transactions,” Khumalo said. Suppliers will “get their payment in gold,” he said. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-18/metallon-may-pay-supp…

* * *

END

We are now witnessing more and more companies seek alternative to the USA dollar.  This latest Russian oil company wants to sell its oil in Euros

(courtesy Reuters_GATA)

Russian oil firm seeks alternative to dollars, Reuters says

 Section: 

By Gleb Gorodyankin and Olga Yagova
Reuters
Wednesday, September 19, 2018

MOSCOW — Russian oil producer Surgutneftegaz is pushing buyers to agree to pay for oil in euros instead of dollars if the need arises, apparently as insurance against possible tougher U.S. sanctions, traders who deal with the firm told Reuters.

… Russia has been subject to Western sanctions since its 2014 annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea region, but Washington has threatened to impose extra sanctions, citing what it has called Moscow’s “malign” activities abroad.

The prospect that causes most alarm for Russian firms is inclusion on a Treasury Department blacklist that effectively cuts them off from conducting transactions in dollars, the lifeblood of the global oil industry. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-surgut-sanctions-exclusive/exc…

END

This is unbelievable:  India has the capacity to produce 100 to 200 tonnes of gold per year from its oil soil but they instead they insist on being poor

(courtesy Times of India/GATA)

India is another rich country insisting on being poor …

 Section: 

… and a tool of the developed world.

* * *

India Can Produce 100 tonnes of Gold Per Year, Expert Says

From the Indo-Asian News Service
via The Times of India, Mumbai
Wednesday, September 19, 2018

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/cons-products/fashion-/-co…

India has the capacity to produce over 100 tonnes of gold per year to better satisfy the country’s enormous demand for the precious metal which is mostly met by imports, a foreign expert said on Wednesday.

Addressing Assocham’s 11th International Gold Summit here, the Managing Director of Galaxy Gold Mines of Australia, Nick Spencer, said that such an increase in domestic production from the current level of just over 1 tonne per annum would go some way towards satisfying India’s hunger for the yellow metal.

“India currently produces 1 to 1.5 tonnes of gold per year from just one working field in the country while it consumes 900 tonnes per annum,” Spencer said.

“The country can ramp up capacity to produce between 100-200 tonnes of gold in a year, which could come out of around 20 mines.

“To scale up mining to these levels would require investment of around $1-1.5 billion and it would provide employment to between 50,000 to 100,000 people,” he added.

According to the World Gold Council, despite a history of gold mining, India’s current production levels are very low and it produced less than 2 tonnes in 2016.

END

Demand for USA silver eagles at the mint is very strong

(courtesy Steve St Angelo/SRSRocco report)

Silver Eagle Sales Surge In September As U.S. Mint Resumes Supply

by SRSROCCO

By SRSROCC O  on September 19, 2018

The sales of Silver Eagles surged in September as the U.S. Mint removed their temporary supply restriction.  As the silver price continued to trend to new lows at the beginning of the month, several large purchases of Silver Eagles by the Authorized Dealers wiped out the inventory at the U.S. Mint.  The U.S. Mint had cut back on its monthly supply due to the falling demand.

However, now that the U.S. Mint has resumed sales of Silver Eagles, they have reached over 1.9 million, up 28% compared to August, and there are still ten days remaining in the month.   Silver Eagle sales so far in September are the highest all year, except for the usual spike in January when the Authorized Dealers are stocking up on the newly released coin.

As we can see in the chart below, Silver Eagle sales have jumped in August and September due to the lower silver spot price:

According to the figures released by the U.S. Mint, Silver Eagle sales fell to a low of only 380,000 in May.  However, sales started to pick up in July and have continued to increase each month.  Interestingly, Silver Eagle sales in the two months of August and September are about the same for the previous five months.

Total sales of Silver Eagles to date in 2018 are 11.2 million.  The total cost to purchase these 11.2 million Silver Eagles at a $20, would equal $224 million.  Now, I just used a round $20 figure; the actual cost is likely a bit less.  However, I wanted to compare the Silver Eagle market to the increase in U.S. public debt since August 1st.

In just the past seven weeks, the U.S. Debt has increased by a stunning $235 billion:

On August 1st, the U.S. debt was $21.26 trillion, and as of yesterday, it rose to nearly $21.5 trillion.  So, how many Silver Eagles could be purchased with $235 billion???  How about 11.7 billion Silver Eagles… LOL.  That’s a lot of Silver Eagles.

The U.S. Mint has sold a total of 515 million Silver Eagles since it started the program in 1986.  So, going by the 515 million oz of Silver Eagles sold since 1986, how many years would it take the U.S. Mint to sell 11.7 billion of the official silver coin at the same rate?  How about 750 years.

Americans have no idea how completely insane the state of the financial system.  It is built on an extreme level of leverage and debt.  While leverage and debt can go up longer than most realize, it still has an EXPIRATION DATE.

I believe when the markets finally roll over, and we experience another crash similar to 2008-2009, we are likely going to see demand for physical precious metals like we have never seen before.

-END-

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Your early THURSDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP TO 6.8495/HUGE DEVALUATION FOR THE PAST FOUR WEEKS STOPS/CHINESE COMING TO USA FOR TRADE TALKS IN NOVEMBER //OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.8435   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 1,61 POINTS OR 0.06% /HANG SANG CLOSED UP 70.30 POINTS OR 0.26%
2. Nikkei closed UP 2.41 POINTS OR 0.01%/USA: YEN FALLS TO 112.22/

3. Europe stocks OPENED  IN THE GREEN 

 

 

/USA dollar index FALLS TO 94.23/Euro RISES TO 1.1726

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: REMAINS AT. +.12/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 112.22/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 71,60  and Brent: 79.30

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP/ CHINESE YUAN:   ON SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.480%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 2.83% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.50%

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 4.06

3k Gold at $1205.00 silver at:14.27   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 36/100 in roubles/dollar) 66.36

3m oil into the 71 dollar handle for WTI and 79 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 112.22DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9633 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1315 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to +0.48%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 3.07% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.22%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.3395

 

World Stocks, 10Y Yields Rise As Trade Tensions Ease;

Dollar Slides

World stocks and US equity futures continued to rise on Thursday in thin trade amid relief that the latest U.S. and Chinese tariffs on were less harsh than feared despite concerns about next steps in the US-Sino trade war, helped by a dollar which slid to 3 week lows even as Treasury yields approaching their highest level this year.

The MSCI World index rose 0.2%, supported by gains in Europe and Asia, but Chinese equities dipped back in the red after a strong 2-day rally on expectations of government stimulus to limit the economic damage of new trade barriers and after reports that Beijing was planning to cut the average tariff rate it charges on imports from the majority of its trading partners as soon as next month. Japan’s Nikkei ended little changed, barely moving after a well-anticipated win by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in a ruling party leadership vote.

In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.2% led by the auto sector with the Stoxx 600 Automobiles & Parts index rising over 1.0%, the best-performing sector on wider European stock gauge; the seventh consecutive increase marked its best winning streak since Nov. 2017. Kepler Cheuvreux strategists raised the recommended exposure to autos back to neutral from underweight as they “envisage a series of late-year bounces within Europe’s depressed value universe in segments that have been largely abandoned by investors.”

In the US, S&P 500 E-mini futures were little changed following strong gains on Wall Street on Wednesday.

The yield on 10-year Treasuries, which on Wednesday touched its highest level since May 18, rose to 3.07% ahead of what is expected to be a hawkish Fed meeting next week.

The greenback remained weaker after a report said the U.S. and Canada are unlikely to reach a deal on Nafta in Washington this week, while the pound strengthened after August retail sales came in higher than expected.

In an otherwise quiet session, Markets watched the ongoing European Union summit where PM Theresa May appealed to fellow EU leaders on Wednesday to drop Brexit demands that she said could rip Britain apart.

After the initial knee-jerk negative reaction to the new tariffs announced by Washington and Beijing on Tuesday, markets have been speculating that an immediate escalation could be averted. To wit: President Trump has not made fresh threats that he would seek to extend tariffs to all Chinese imports. “Making forecasts on Trump is always a risk but it’s a fact that at the moment the escalation has taken a break,” said Anthilia Capital fund manager and strategist Giuseppe Sersale. Meanwhile, as reported yesterday, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said this week he would not would not weaken the yuan to boost exports.

Ahead of the Fed meeting next week, other central banks topped the agenda, with Norway’s policymakers raising interest rates for the first time in seven years as the SNB kept deposit rates unchanged.  Despite the hike, the Norwegian crown slumped versus the euro the most in six months as the central bank lowered its policy rate forecasts. The crown fell 0.9 percent versus the euro to 9.5990.  The Swiss franc weakened after the SNB kept policy unchanged and maintained its “highly valued” description on the currency.

The rally in global stocks was accompanied a drop in demand for safe-haven assets, boosting U.S. bonds yields and sending the dollar lower while the Japanese yen has remained been under pressure. Volumes in currency trading were subdued as the dollar slipped to a three-week low: the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell a second day to touch the lowest level this month while the 10-year yield was up 1 bps at 3.07%.

Risk-off trades stayed under pressure, with the Aussie and the Swedish krona rising a fourth day and as European stocks moved higher.

Elsewhere, emerging-market assets continued to rally off the lows seen earlier this month. In commodities, news of another drawdown in U.S. crude inventories and signs that OPEC may not raise output enough to compensate for the loss of Iranian exports hit by sanctions, lifted benchmark Brent crude 0.11 percent at $79.49. Base metals rose, buoyed by relief over trade and a shortage of the metal in top consumer China, with London Metal Exchange zinc hitting its fortnight before paring some gains and trade up 0.50 percent at $2,446 a tonne.

In geopolitical news, the US was said to be ready to immediately resume negotiations with North Korea on nuclear disarmament, while Secretary of State Pompeo said he invited his North Korean Foreign Minister Ri to talks in New York next week amid UN general assembly.

Expected data include jobless claims and existing home sales. Darden and Micron are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 2,918.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 380.75
  • MXAP up 0.2% to 164.39
  • MXAPJ up 0.2% to 522.09
  • Nikkei up 0.01% to 23,674.93
  • Topix up 0.1% to 1,787.60
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.3% to 27,477.67
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.06% to 2,729.24
  • Sensex down 0.5% to 37,121.22
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 6,169.50
  • Kospi up 0.7% to 2,323.45
  • German 10Y yield fell 0.2 bps to 0.485%
  • Euro up 0.2% to $1.1700
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 6.0 bps to 2.491%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.7 bps to 1.51%
  • Brent futures little changed at $79.35/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,202.38
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 94.36

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • China is planning to cut the average tariff rates on imports from the majority of its trading partners as soon as next month, two people familiar with the matter said, in a move that will lower costs for consumers as a trade war with the U.S. deepens
  • European and U.K. leaders exchanged warnings at a summit in Salzburg, that time is running out to seal an agreement on Brexit and offered no indication they can break the deadlock less than two months before the deal is due to be completed
  • President Donald Trump plans to nominate Nellie Liang, a former Federal Reserve economist, to the central bank’s Board of Governors, the White House announced Wednesday
  • New Zealand’s economy grew at the fastest pace in two years in the second quarter, prompting markets to pare bets on an interest-rate cut. The currency rose to a three-week high
  • Liftoff may finally have arrived for yields in the world’s biggest debt market. That’s good news for the fast-money crowd that’s rarely been more bearishly positioned on 10-year Treasury futures
  • Russia’s crude production has jumped to a new post-Soviet record as it prepares for talks with OPEC on further cooperation, according to a government official
  • Iran said it will veto any OPEC decision that harms the Islamic Republic and warned that some oil producers are trying to create an alternative suppliers’ forum that supports U.S. policies hostile to the government in Tehran
  • Raw materials are regaining their importance as a marker for where the emerging world is headed. That matters because they may help bolster prices if or when there’s a rebound
  • Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe won his third straight three-year term as head of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party on Thursday, taking him a step closer to becoming the country’s longest-serving premier.

Asia equity markets eventually traded mixed despite the early tailwind from US where strength in blue chip financials fuelled the outperformance in the DJIA and with the S&P 500 just about kept afloat by gains in materials and energy. ASX 200 (-0.2%) lagged after it fell short of the 6200 level and Nikkei 225 (+0.4%) extended on 8-month highs as participants awaited the LDP leadership vote where PM Abe and in turn Abenomics, are widely expected to be prolonged for another 3-year term. Elsewhere. Hang Seng (Unch.) and Shanghai Comp. (-0.1%) were choppy amid a lack of fresh drivers and after PBoC liquidity efforts still amounted to a net daily drain, while focus in Hong Kong was on Hong Kong’s 2nd largest tech IPO this year Meituan Dianping which rose around 7% on its debut. Finally, 10yr JGBs were marginally higher after prices found support ahead of the 150.00 level and which also coincided with a mild overnight recovery in T-notes, although price action was restricted amid a 20yr auction which showed weaker results across all metrics.

Top Asian News

  • Meituan Rises on Debut in Hong Kong After $4.2 Billion IPO
  • China Fintech Firm Soars as IPO Trade Frenzy Jumps to U.S
  • Tencent Pact With Novartis Shows Big Pharma’s Ambitions in China
  • Najib Faces 25 Charges Linked to $681 Million in 1MDB Case

Top European News

  • Oaktree’s Marks Says U.K. Too Risky to Invest Due to Brexit: FT
  • Five Star Demands Bold Italy Budget as Conte Frets on Investors
  • U.K. August Retail Sales Unexpectedly Gain in Summer Heatwave
  • Norway Raises Benchmark Rate for First Time in Seven Years

In FX markets, the greenback was lacklustre with the DXY stuck around the 94.50 level. This kept trade in EUR/USD uneventful and GBP/USD also struggled for direction amid a lack of progress and standstill following PM May’s Salzburg dinner address. Elsewhere, high-beta currencies held on to most their recent gains with AUD/USD flat and USD/CAD near a 1-month low, while NZD/USD outperformed after New Zealand GDP for Q2 topped estimates and grew at the fastest pace in 2 years.

Commodities traded higher in which WTI crude futures extended on the prior day’s strength despite the narrower than expected draw in DoE headline inventories as it still showed a decline in inventories as opposed to the surprise API build. Elsewhere, gold prices saw modest gains amid a lacklustre greenback and silver eyed weekly high, while copper also conformed to the mild upside in the complex.
On today’s calendar, the early focus should once again be on the UK with August retail sales data due to be released. This afternoon in the US there’s a steady stream of largely second tier releases including the September Philly Fed PMI, weekly initial jobless claims, August leading index and August existing home sales. The advanced September consumer confidence print for the euro area is also out this afternoon. Away from that we’ve got the second and final day of the informal EU leaders meeting in Salzburg, while the Bundesbank’s Weidmann and ECB’s Praet are slated to speak. Finance Ministers in the euro area are also due to meet and discuss Greece, the EMU and budgets ahead of the next eurogroup meeting.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, est. 18, prior 11.9
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 210,000, prior 204,000; Continuing Claims, est. 1.71m, prior 1.7m
  • 10am: Existing Home Sales, est. 5.36m, prior 5.34m; Existing Home Sales MoM, est. 0.37%, prior -0.7%
  • 12pm: Household Change in Net Worth, prior $1.03t

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Yesterday brought about a fairly bumper inflation report out of the UK which added to the quiet but notable fixed income sell-off of late. Indeed, on an otherwise quiet day for newsflow the highlight was the stronger-than-expected +2.1% yoy August core U.K. CPI print, an increase of two-tenths from July and also beating expectations for a small decline to +1.8%. Headline inflation also rose two-tenths to +2.7% yoy (vs. +2.4% expected) while RPI (+3.5% yoy vs. +3.2% expected) also came in higher than expected. Big climbs in prices for recreation, transport and furniture and clothing were blamed for the jump.

10 year Gilts ended last night 4.0bps higher at 1.606% and are now at the highest since February 15th. Yields are also up an impressive 38.4bps from the August lows of 1.223% all of a sudden. Meanwhile 10y Treasuries ended yesterday 0.7bps higher following a bit of a rally back into the close but have consolidated above 3% for the second day – as a reminder the last time that happened was back in May and we’ve only closed above 3% for 12 days this year and 13 days since July 2011. So, these are elevated levels relative to the last several years. 10y Bunds are also back to the highest since May after rising another 0.7bps yesterday and so taking the move since mid-August to +18.4bps. The rest of Europe was also broadly 1-2bps higher and even BTPs sold off +6.3bps following another day of headline leaks (more on that shortly).

So, some impressive moves for bonds of late but the MOVE index (Treasury volatility) – which closed yesterday 0.83pts higher at 48.8 – is still hovering around its YTD lows (closing low being the 45.3 level in July with the YTD average 53.3). In the February and May sell-offs we climbed above 70 and 60 respectively. So it’s been a fairly orderly sell-off for bonds of late.

Elsewhere it was a fairly directionless day for equities. The STOXX 600 closed +0.33% in Europe but was playing some catch up to the Wall Street gains from the previous evening, while in the US the S&P 500 limped to a +0.13% gain but was slightly held back by another down-day for the NASDAQ (-0.08%) which continues to dictate the tempo across the pond. Gains for banks and large-cap industrials nevertheless supported the DOW (+0.61%). EM FX (+0.60%) continues to edge higher with the asset class all of a sudden up on six of the last seven sessions. Overnight in Asia we’ve seen a similarly directionless session.

Leading the way is the Kospi (+1.03%) seemingly after US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo indicated last night in a statement that the US was seeking a new round of talks with North Korea with the end goal of denuclearizing North Korea by the end of  President Trump’s first term. Elsewhere the Nikkei (+0.19%) is higher for the fifth consecutive session (the LDP leadership decision should be out just as this hits your email with Abe widely considered to be re-elected), while the Hang Seng (-0.02%), ASX (-0.19%) and Shanghai Comp (-0.12%) are all in the red.

Futures in the US are broadly flat and bond markets in Asia also quiet. The other news worth flagging overnight is from the Fed with Bloomberg reporting that President Trump is planning on nominating former Fed economist and financial stability expert Nellie Liang to the Board of Governors and policy setting Open Market Committee. As we go into print headlines on Bloomberg have also just come through suggesting that China is planning to cut the average tariff rate that it charges on imports from the majority of its trading partners as soon as next month, two people familiar with the matter said.

Back to yesterday, where outside of the UK inflation data the other story which caught some attention was the Times  reporting that PM Theresa May was preparing to reject Michel Barnier’s improved Brexit offer surrounding the Irish border issue. After trading as high at $1.3215 (+0.51%) post the CPI data, the Pound fell to a low of $1.3099 (-0.38%) following that story. It then rallied back before additional Brexit headlines pressured it lower again. The second round of negative headlines were from the EU’s Juncker who said they were still “far away” from a Brexit deal and Irish PM Varadkar who said that negotiations are no closer to conclusion than they were in March. The pound ended the day broadly flat. As a reminder, the EU leaders meeting continues in Salzburg again today so worth watching out for any closing headlines.

Meanwhile in Italy the daily budget headlines yesterday consisted of Corriere della Sera reporting that Deputy PM Di Maio was calling for an increase in the deficit to 2.5% of GDP. Di Maio was quoted as saying that “we will have to rely on a little bit of extra deficit, so that we’ll be able to stimulate growth, which will help us cut the debt ratio of GDP in the long run”. Since then PM Conte, on the sidelines of the EU summit, has said that Italy’s budget deficit won’t exceed 2% next year. While we’re on Italy, it’s worth noting that our European economists published a report yesterday entitled “Rome vs Brussels”. They warn that the market is becoming too complacent about the upcoming budget and particularly the degree of tension after the publication which could reveal something about Rome/Brussels relations. This in turn could affect how the market perceives the hurdles to ESM support (and OMT, if necessary). See the link here for those interested.

As far as the latest trade developments are concerned, there wasn’t much to report yesterday with the focus instead turning to NAFTA with Bloomberg headlines once again hitting the wires in the afternoon suggesting that a USCanada deal is unlikely to be reached this week. Speaking of trade, it’s worth highlighting a note from our FX team yesterday which focuses on the “winners” from the US-China trade war using micro-level trade data to assess the scope for US consumers to swap Chinese products for imports from the rest of the world. It was interesting to see Europe as a potential beneficiary. See the link to the report here .

Elsewhere, some influential central bankers made speeches yesterday but did not signal any market-moving changes in policy. ECB President Draghi used a speech in Berlin to call for deeper European integration, especially with regards to a common fiscal backstop and deeper financial and capital markets integration. BoE Chief Economist Haldane defended forward guidance, saying it has effectively signalled interest rate hikes to consumers and businesses, even if it was not precise enough to satisfy financial market participants.

Finally, on the data front, US housing activity was generally strong. Housing starts increased 9.2% mom in August, though building permits fell -5.7%. This might reflect some catch-up after activity had been depressed earlier in the summer from wildfires. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model showed a slight increase in its estimate of third quarter residential investment, but their headline GDP forecast remained steady at 4.4% qoq saar, which would be the fifth-highest pace since the financial crisis.

In terms of what to watch out for today, the early focus should once again be on the UK with August retail sales data due to be released. This afternoon in the US there’s a steady stream of largely second tier releases including the September Philly Fed PMI, weekly initial jobless claims, August leading index and August existing home sales. The advanced September consumer confidence print for the euro area is also out this afternoon. Away from that we’ve got the second and final day of the informal EU leaders meeting in Salzburg, while the Bundesbank’s Weidmann and ECB’s Praet are slated to speak. Finance Ministers in the euro area are also due to meet and discuss Greece, the EMU and budgets ahead of the next eurogroup meeting.

 

 

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i) THURSDAY MORNING/ WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Shanghai closed DOWN 1.61 POINTS OR 0.06%   /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 70.30 POINTS OR 0.26%/   / The Nikkei closed UP 2.41 POINTS OR 0.01%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.32%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.8495 AS POBC STOPS  ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER/Oil DOWN to 71.60 dollars per barrel for WTI and 79.30 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.8495 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8435: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOT DOING TOO GOOD   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING  WEAKER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING  STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

North Korea/South Korea/USA/China

Kim asks for a 2nd summit with Trump and promises a swift surrender of their nuclear arsenal.  It seems that this is real and not a fake

(courtesy zerohedge)

Kim Asks For 2nd Summit With Trump, Promises Swift Surrender Of Nuclear Arsenal

Even though North Korea has reneged on similar promises in the past, Kim Jong Un’s promise to allow international observers into the isolated country to monitor the dismantling of the North’s Yongbyon nuclear reactor and several missile-launching sites has apparently persuaded the US to restart negotiations to drop sanctions against the regime after they stalled out over the summer.

In what may be another example of the North telling the US what it wants to hear, Kim has reportedly requested another meeting with Trump while promising to quickly surrender all of his country’s nukes, according to South Korean leader Moon Jae-in, who shared the news at a press conference Thursday. Kim also wants Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to return to North Korea for another meeting (a visit that had been planned for last month was canceled by Trump as talks stalled). 

In a sign that negotiations are set to begin again in earnest, Pompeo has invited Ri Yong-hu, North Korea’s foreign minister, to a meeting in New York next week after the secretary of state set a goal to complete the North’s denuclearization process by the time President Trump’s term ends in January 2021, Reutersreports,

Pompeo

Despite the renewed enthusiasm surrounding the talks, several anonymous US officials said they remain skeptical of the North’s intentions. Specifically, they’re worried the North could be deliberately attempting to drive a wedge between Washington and Seoul.

While North Korea has pledged to “work toward” denuclearization”, these commitments have been vague. Yet the US insists that the North must commitment to removing its arsenal if it wants easing of international sanctions and an end to the Korean war.

Some U.S. officials were deeply skeptical. Speaking before Pompeo’s announcement, two senior U.S. officials involved in U.S.-North Korea policy voiced fears Kim was trying to drive a wedge between Washington and Seoul.

At the summit, the two Koreas agreed on plans to resume economic cooperation, including working to reconnect rail and road links. They agreed as well to restart a joint factory park in a border city of Kaesong and tours to the North’s Mount Kumgang resort, when conditions are met.

[…]

“There is nothing the North has offered so far that would constitute irreversible movement toward denuclearization, however you define that, by January 2021 or any other time, or even a reduction of the military threat it poses to the South and the region,” said a U.S. intelligence official.

“Everything that’s out there now is conditional on U.S. actions that would reduce the pressure on the North to cooperate or (is) filled with loopholes and exit ramps,”added the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

And even if North Korea shuts down Yongbyon, many in the US intelligence community suspect the country has other hidden nuclear facilities. It’s also notable that this week’s meeting between Kim and Moon failed to yield a commitment from the North to surrender its entire nuclear arsenal. This could become a serious problem as the ambiguity about Washington’s and North Korea’s respective commitments could give Kim room to argue that the US hasn’t fulfilled its pledges.

“What North Korea really wants and their priorities may be different from ours,” the official told reporters on Thursday on condition of anonymity.

“We’re talking about a package that would carry many elements, including the declaration of the facilities, Yongbyon and Tongchang-ri, which are of U.S. interest, and from the North side, the issues of normalizing relations, ending the war and easing sanctions.”

[…]

“What North Korea really wants and their priorities may be different from ours,” the official told reporters on Thursday on condition of anonymity.

“We’re talking about a package that would carry many elements, including the declaration of the facilities, Yongbyon and Tongchang-ri, which are of U.S. interest, and from the North side, the issues of normalizing relations, ending the war and easing sanctions.”

Despite these concerns, President Trump responded enthusiastically to the latest agreement. “I’m calm, I’m calm – so we’ll see what happens,” Trump told reporters. One thing is clear: While Trump can credibly claim the detente as a major foreign policy victory – Pompeo’s ambitious agenda could influence the US to make unreasonable concessions to clinch a political win before the 2020 vote. Kim likely knows this, and will try to wring every ounce of leverage out of it that he can.

end

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

 
END

3C CHINA

Tuesday night:

The Premier of China states that China will never devalue her currency to boost exports

(courtesy zerohedge)

China Will “Never” Devalue Currency To Boost Exports, Premier Vows

The Chinese yuan rose for a second day after Premier Li Keqiang echoed previous comments from the PBOC when he stressed that China will not weaponize its currency and will not stoop to competitive devaluation of the yuan, hours after China hit back, with a “softer punch” as Reuters put it, than the one landed by the United States in the escalating tariff war between the world’s largest economies.

Chinese Premier Li KeqiangSpeaking before a World Economic Forum event in the city of Tianjin on Wednesday, Li did not directly mention the trade conflict but he said that devaluation would do “more harm than good”, and that talk of Beijing deliberately weakening its currency was “groundless.”

“One-way depreciation of the yuan brings more harm than benefits for China,” he said. “China will never go down the road of relying on yuan depreciation to stimulate exports.” He added that China will not do that to chase “thin profits” and “a few small bucks.”

Li also said that the world’s multi-lateral trading system should be upheld, and that unilateral trade actions will not solve any problems. His remarks pushed the yuan higher, after the currency had lost about 9 percent of its value since mid-April amid the ongoing trade war.

Still, after the latest round of tariffs announced on Monday night, the next move by the two nations is clearly crucial, particularly if the US administration acts upon China’s move by introducing tariffs on the remaining $267BN of Chinese exports to the US. Additionally, as we noted yesterday, one can’t rule out the possibility of China going down the non-tariff route given the limitations on how much tariffs they can apply. As DB’s Jim Reid writes, “the nuclear option would be to sell US Treasuries and on that note overnight we’ve had data released which showed that China’s holdings of US Treasuries in July fell to the lowest in six months ($1.17tn from $1.18tn in June).This was just as the trade war was ramping up so although the data is a little stale and the actual size of the reduction is small it’s still noteworthy and a data point to watch in the future.”

Meanwhile, a note by Oxford Economics said that its baseline forecast for Chinese GDP in 2019 could fall well below 6%, and said prospects for near-term easing in tensions were low.

“But the likelihood of de-escalation will rise over time as the increasing economic impact in the U.S. will make the Trump team less combative, and China realises that it will be hard to integrate more into the global economy without some concessions regarding its specific economic model,” the note said.

Sure enough, the market has for now taken the latest trade war news in stride, as the latest escalation was less severe than some market participants had expected, with Asian stocks rising on Wednesday and U.S. Treasury yields near four-month highs.

Euphoria aside, China has yet to publicly accept an invitation extended last week by Steven Mnuchin to hold a fresh round of talks, which China welcomed at the time.

On Wednesday, Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said he had no information on a possible trade delegation and questioned U.S. sincerity about wanting new talks, noting that the last round was followed immediately by the activation of new tariffs. “This has become a kind of U.S. routine,” he said.

Meanwhile, the propaganda war of words is rising, with the People’s Daily writing in a front-page editorial on its international edition that China remains unafraid of the “extreme measures” taken by the United States. “To deal with the trade war, what China really should do is to focus on doing its own thing well,” the newspaper, which is published by the ruling Communist Party, said.

“(China) is not worried that the U.S. trade counter measures will raise domestic commodity prices by too much but will instead use it as an opportunity to replace imports, promote localization or develop export-oriented advanced manufacturing,” it said.

Elsewhere, Reuters reported that the state-owned Global Times tabloid said the trade war was a chance to pursue greater global recognition of its financial markets and that it could open its A-share market more to listings by Western firms.

end

China in its latest trade war escalation with the USA, promises to lower tariffs on foreign imports other than USA to make the USA goods less competitive

(courtesy zerohedge)

In Latest Trade-War Escalation, China Will Cut Tariffs On Imported Goods

As we’ve pointed out in the past, one of China’s biggest disadvantages in the burgeoning trade war with the US is its yawning trade surplus, which constrains its ability to impose retaliatory tariffs on US goods (which explains China’s latest tariff threat). With this in mind, China’s leaders are being forced to find alternative ways to strike back at the US that, while not directly targeting imports, can be just as damaging. And one day after China’s Premier promised once again to “never” (or rather, never again) devalue the Yuan, Bloomberg reported Thursday that China is planning to lower imports on goods from other countries, thereby making US goods less competitive in the domestic Chinese market. The import cuts will reportedly take effect in October.

The decision effectively kills two birds with one stone: It disadvantages US producers and allows China to boast about its progress in liberalizing its markets.

China is planning to cut the average tariff rates on imports from the majority of its trading partners as soon as next month, two people familiar with the matter said, in a move that will lower costs for consumers as a trade war with the U.S. deepens.

Premier Li Keqiang said Wednesday that China would further reduce the tariffs, without elaborating. The two people who spoke on the new reduction asked not to be named as the matter isn’t public yet.

By cutting duties on goods even as it retaliates against President Donald Trump’s trade war with higher charges on some U.S. goods, China is following through on long-stated goals to boost imports. The move comes as the nation is trying to stimulate domestic consumption to support a slowing economy, and follows similar cuts to tariffs in July on a wide range of consumer goods.

The ‘significance’ of this gesture wasn’t lost on analysts, who immediately praised the decision.

By further cutting import taxes, China is sending a message that it will keep opening up and reform no matter how the trade war goes. It’s more like a commitment to both domestic and international audience. It’s a gesture,” said Tommy Xie, an economist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp Ltd in Singapore.

Another analyst praised the decision as a “clever” tactic for fighting back against the US because it will aide China’s efforts to transition to a more service-based economy by granting consumers’ access to cheaper goods. Beijing, as Reuters points out, has also pledged to increase imports regardless of what happens with the trade war. What’s more, cheaper imports will help offset inflationary pressures triggered by LNG tariffs and other levies on energy products from the US.

“The timing of the cut would suggest the tariff tool now is being used as a tactic in the trade war, taking into account both domestic and international considerations,” said Bloomberg economist Chang Shu.

Another factor that is equally important, particularly as China continues its push to leverage the WTO against the US, is that the cuts comport with WTO most-favored-nation rules. China’s average tariff under MFN is 9.8%.

China surpassed the US as the world’s largest trading nation back in 2013, and in 2017, the world’s second-largest economy imported roughly $1.84 trillion in goods.

China

Source: Statista

And while South Korea and Japan are the two largest suppliers of Chinese imports, the US still ranks third.

China

The announcement followed an editorial published Wednesday in the People’s Daily declaring that China would use the trade war as an opportunity “to replace imports, promote localisation and accelerate the development of high-tech products“.

The import cuts are expected to do just that. But while investors are largely focused on China’s publicly threatened retaliation, the country is now finding other, quieter means of exerting pressure on the US, like – perhaps – hinting at the “nuclear option.” As Tuesday’s TIC data revealed, China sold off more Treasuries in July, sending its holdings to six month lows.

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

EU/Denmark/Danske bank/USA

This could be devastating:  Danske bank’s Estonia’s wholly owned bank reveals that the laundering scandal swells to $234 billion dollars. The USA is now investigating as well.  It seems that Citibank and Deutsche bank were complicit in this laundering of illicit money mainly from Russia. This could quite possibly bring down the EU

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Danske Bank CEO Quits As Money Laundering Scandal Swells To $234 Billion

Estimates of Danske Bank’s staggering fraud have grown since news that the US had launched an investigation broke last week. Since then, the total amount laundered through the bank by shadowy figures in the former Soviet Union has risen to an estimated 200 billion euros – or $234 billion. For context, that’s many times the roughly $17 billion that flows through Estonian banks during an average year, meaning that the money laundering perpetuated by Danske effectively transformed the Estonian banking system into a giant front for organized crime groups. And as evidence has proliferated that the bank’s leadership did nothing to inhibit the financial crimes despite being confronted with evidence from internal and external sources, the bank has determined that the time has come to make a token sacrifice so that the wider institution may survive.

And that sacrifice came earlier Wednesday when the Financial Times reported that Danske CEO Thomas Borgen has decided to step down as reports that he was effectively complicit in the fraud have proven deeply embarrassing to him and the bank.

Borgen

Thomas Borgen

What’s worse, as the scandal has unfurled, the abject inadequacy of the bank’s internal controls have become staggeringly apparent. According to an internal probe cited by the FT, Danske found that “the vast majority” of 6,200 “risky” customers of the bank’s Estonia branch were “suspicious.”

Denmark’s largest bank said “a series of major deficiencies” in its control and governance system allowed its Estonian branch to be used for suspicious transactions from 2007 until 2015.

Danske said about €200bn of payments had flowed through its Estonian branch from non-resident customers – from countries such as Russia, the UK and the British Virgin Islands — but that it could not yet estimate how many of these were suspicious.

An analysis of 6,200 of the riskiest customers – out of 15,000 non-resident clients in total – showed that the “vast majority have been found to be suspicious.”

Danske has refused to release an “accurate estimate” of the suspicious transactions, but did say that its “non-resident portfolio” for the Estonian branch included customers from Russia, Azerbeijan and Ukraine.

In a statement issued by Borgen along with his resignation, the former CEO avoided accepting any responsibility for the fraud despite leading the bank’s international operations between 2009 and 2012 – when the bulk of the documented laundering took place (Borgen even pushed back when others at the bank advocated for more oversight at the bank).

“It is clear that Danske Bank has failed to live up to its responsibility in the case of possible money laundering in Estonia. I deeply regret this,” Borgen said in a statement which detailed failings in compliance, communication and controls.

Bill Browder, the financier who has found himself wrapped up in Mueller’s Russia probe, pointed out in a tweet that one of Danske’s dollar-clearing US correspondent banks terminated its relationship after citing AML concerns tied to the Estonian branch. According to media reports, both Citigroup’s Moscow branch and Deutsche Bank were reportedly involved in dollar clearing for the Estonia branch – though Deutsche eventually cut off it relationship over AML concerns.

Bill Browder

@Billbrowder

BREAKING: The suspicious transaction situation was so bad at Danske Bank’s Estonian branch that it’s US correspondent bank terminated the relationship on anti money laundering grounds. Yet the Danish management did nothing until 2015

Despite all publicly reported facts pointing to the contrary, a Danske Bank internal investigation concluded that Borgen and Chairman Ole Andersen “did not breach their legal obligations toward Danske Bank,” according to Reuters. Andersen said Wednesday that he intends to stay on until “the job is done” – whatever that means.

Danske shares have shed one-third of their value in the past six months as concerns about the Estonia branch and a possible investigation have rattled investors, some of whom are fearful that the US Treasury could hit it with the “death penalty” – sanctions against handling dollars that would almost certainly push the bank, which is Denmark’s largest lender, into collapse. Given the steady drumbeat of Danske-related news in recent weeks, we expect to hear more about the DOJ and SEC probes in the coming months as key details are leaked to the press.

end
ITALY
Italian bond yields rise as the 5 star coalition looks in jeopardy as Tria cannot find money for promises on the election campaign.  Brussels does not want Italy to break the 3% deficit to GDP rule
(courtesy zerohedge)

Italy’s 5 Star Threatens To Ditch Coalition Over Budget Talks, Italian Bonds Slide

While the market turmoil over Italy’s budget has quieted down in recent weeks as a result of soothing words by the ruling coalition that it would comply with European demands, that snapped moments ago when DPA reported that the leader of Italy’s Five Star Movement has threatened to pull the plug on the country’s populist government if it cannot find money to implement election campaign promises.

“If we do not find the resources to do what we have said, then it is better for us to go home, there is no point in scraping by,” M5S leader and Deputy Premier Luigi Di Maio told Radio 24.

As a result of budget limitations imposed by Brussels, the M5S and its coalition partner, the League, are struggling to find resources for three major pledges: cutting taxes, lowering the pension age and introducing basic income subsidies for the poor.

Di Maio’s remarks piled pressure on Finance Minister Giovanni Tria, a technocrat who is resisting calls to increase the deficit because this could heighten the risk of a financial crisis.

“If we need a bit of deficit to improve the quality of life of Italians, we should remember that the priority is to improve the lives of Italians, not to reassure markets,” Di Maio said. Risk indicators on Italy’s sovereign bonds have surged in recent months, on the back of investors’ fears of reckless public spending. Italy already has very high public debt.

As a reminder, the Italian government is supposed to set debt and deficit targets for next year by September 27, and to present detailed 2019 budget plans to the European Commission by October 15. Meanwhile, according to Wolfango Piccoli, an analyst at Teneo Intelligence consultancy, the M5S needs to score a political victory on the budget to make up for its declining popularity vis-a-vis the League.

In response to the news, Italian bonds fell with yields on 2Y bonds spiking.

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Turkey/Thursday

Everything was fine with Turkey’s economic plan until the Fin Min. talked about restructuring the debt of  Turkey’s Development Bank…that sent the Lira tumbling

(courtesy zerohedge)

Turkish Lira Swings Violently As Erdogan’s Economic Plan Spooks Traders

The Turkish lira swung violently, rising to session highs then slumping 1.5% after Turkey presented its medium term economic plan, which together with last week’s massive 625bps rate hike was supposed to restore investor confidence in the country’s struggling economy.

The Turkish Lira first rose 1.9% during the speech delivered by Turkey’s finance minister Berat Albayrak in which he revealed targets for growth and inflation that signaled a somewhat realistic assessment of the economy and its outlook, including a current account deficit that was forecast at 3.3% for 2019, a number seen as realistic and a far-cry from some of the wild estimates recently suggested by analysts.

Among the details, growth was seen slowing to 3.8% in 2018 and 2.3% in 2019, and according to Bloomberg, the slowdown is fueling speculation that authorities are not planning to stimulate the economy with outsized government spending. Additionally, the government’s inflation target is 15.9% for 2019, dropping to 6% for 2021.

But the TRY then tumbled when he spoke about the plan for helping banks focused on restructuring debt, and one particular headline sent the currency sliding:

  • ALBAYRAK: DEVELOPMENT BANK TO BE RESTRUCTURED W/ NEW MANDATE

As Bloomberg added, Turkey will assess the financial structure and asset quality of banks and carry out financial health assessments; after studies, a comprehensive set of policies will be introduced “in light of global examples and Turkish past experience, which will help banking sector to further strengthen, real economy to have access to credit at affordable rates, while creating room for credit restructuring if needed.

Albayrak also said that the Ultimate objective for the real economy is to “restructure current credit debt and ensure the continuation of value-add production” and added that the Development Bank of Turkey will be restructured with an expanded mandate.

The statement prompted fears of more government intervention, seen most recently in Erdogan’s threats over the central bank’s tightening actions, and in kneejerk reaction the TRY quickly dumped to session lows.

Yet as Bloomberg’s Stephen Kirland noes, for all that fluctuation, the options market was sending a calmer signal, with 3-month implied vols hardly budging from a one-month low, where it has been since last week’s rate decision.

Still, he adds that investors seek more detail on Turkey’s plans to shore up lenders and address debt repayments and time will tell whether today’s subdued volatility will prove transient.

END

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

I really like Graham Summers who provides a short but correct analysis of the huge problem facing the globe:  the bubble in the bond market.  As you will recall, Alasdair Macleod also stated that this was the big problem facing the world and the higher yields will pierce the bubble setting the stage for USA hyperinflation

(courtesy Graham Summers)

Bubble Watch: The Bond Bubble is Getting Dangerously Close to Its “Needle”

As if we didn’t have enough reasons to be concerned about stocks already, the bond market is blowing up again.

Why does this matter?

Because the entire move in the financial markets since 2008 has been based on Central Banks cornering the bond market. In the simplest of terms, Central Banks dealt with the crash in one major asset class (housing) by creating a bubble in another even more senior asset class (government bonds).

Because these bonds are the backbone of the current financial system, (the senior-most asset class), when they went into a bubble, everything followed.

Which is why the sudden rise in bond yields is a MAJOR problem.

If bond yields rise, bond prices fall.

If bond prices fall, the bond bubble begins to burst. 

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Germany’s 10-Year Government Bond Yields:

GPC92018.png

Japan’s 10-Year Government Bond Yields:

GPC920182.png

And worst of all, the US’s 10-Year Government Bond Yields:

GPC920183.png

Let’s be clear here… if the stock market drops, it’s a problem for stock speculators… but if the bond market blows up, ENTIRE countries go bust.

All of the above charts are a MAJOR warning that the next crisis is fast approaching. 

7  OIL ISSUES

Oil prices are rising and the Brent price is close to $80.00 per barrel.  Trump immediately warns OPEC that the USA protects its interests.  Thus if they do not lower prices then the uSA will no longer protect OPEC countries

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Trump: “The OPEC Monopoly Must Get Prices Down Now!”

Less than three months after Trump’s latest tweet slamming OPEC, in which he warned the petroleum cartel that “the United States defends many of their members for very little $’s. This must be a two way street. REDUCE PRICING NOW!”…

… Trump was at it again and on Thursday morning, the president lashed out at OPEC, saying that the US protects the countries of the Middle East, and warning these nations that “they would not be safe for very long without us, and yet they continue to push for higher and higher oil prices! We will remember.

His message: “The OPEC monopoly must get prices down now!”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

We protect the countries of the Middle East, they would not be safe for very long without us, and yet they continue to push for higher and higher oil prices! We will remember. The OPEC monopoly must get prices down now!

“With oil prices close to the highs of the year, the Trump tweet doesn’t come as a surprise,” said UBS’ Giovanni Staunovo. “Considering the upcoming OPEC meeting in Algiers, he wants to keep pressure on the group ahead of the mid-term elections.”

In response, Brent crude, which had traded as high as 0.5% earlier, erased session gains and slumped 0.1% in the red.

And while OPEC and allies are scheduled to meet in Algiers this weekend to discuss the oil market and their production levels, Reuters reported that OPEC is unlikely to agree to further official increases in oil output, which means more angry tweets from Trump will be forthcoming.

Meanwhile, as some have pointed out, with OPEC’s market share below 40%, perhaps Trump should target other oil market members.

end

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES.

VENEZUELA

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings THURSDAY morning 7:00 am

Euro/USA 1.1726 UP .0052/ REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES  IN THE GREEN 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 112.22   DOWN 0.113  (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL

GBP/USA 1.3248 UP   0.01083  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.2909  DOWN .0010(CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS THURSDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 14 basis point, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1659; / Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED DOWN 1.61 POINTS OR 0.06%  /Hang Sang CLOSED UP 70.30 POINTS OR 0.36% /AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN  0.32% / EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

 

The NIKKEI: this THURSDAY morning CLOSED  UP 2.41 POINTS OR 0.01% 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED ALL GREEN 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang UP 70.30 POINTS OR 0.26%  /SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 1.61 POINTS OR  0.06%

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.32%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 2.41 POINTS OR 0.01% 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1203.65

silver:$14.22

Early THURSDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 3.07% !!! UP 0 IN POINTS from WEDNESDAY night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

The 30 yr bond yield 3.22 UP 0  IN BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 94.23 DOWN 31  CENT(S) from WEDNESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers THURSDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.88% UP 3    in basis point(s) yield from WEDNESDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.12%  UP 0 BASIS POINTS from WEDNESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/EXTREMELY VOLATILE YESTERDAY

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.51% UP 1  IN basis point yield from WEDNESDAY/

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.88 UP 11   POINTS in basis point yield from WEDNESDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 137 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS UP TO +.47%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY

Closing currency crosses for THURSDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1744 UP .0070(Euro UP 70 Basis points/ represents to DRAGHI A COMPLETE POLICY FAILURE/

USA/Japan: 112.51 UP 0.175 Yen DOWN 18 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.3238 UP .0099( POUND UP 99 BASIS POINTS)

USA/Canada 1.2908  Canadian dollar UP 9  Basis points AS OIL ROSE TO $71,03

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

This afternoon, the Euro was ROSE BY 70 BASIS POINTS  to trade at 1.1744

The Yen FELL to 112.51 for a LOSS of 18 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE

The POUND GAINED 99 basis points, trading at 1.3238/

The Canadian dollar GAINED 9 basis points to 1.2908/ WITH WTI OIL RISING TO 71.03

The USA/Yuan,CNY closed DOWN AT 6.8468-  ON SHORE  (YUAN UP)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.8454 (  YUAN UP)

TURKISH LIRA:  6.2242

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.12%   UP 0  BASIS POINT FROM YESTERDAY

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 7  IN basis points from WEDNESDAY at 3.06 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.20 UP 6  in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 94.08 DOWN 36 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 1:00 PM 

London: CLOSED UP  36.19 POINTS OR 0.49%

German Dax : CLOSED UP 114.10 POINTS  OR 0.93%
Paris Cac CLOSED UP 61.25 POINTS OR 1.14%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 95.90 POINTS OR 1.01%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP:  107.60 POINTS OR 0.51%/

 

 

WTI Oil price; 71.03  1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 78.75 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    66.36/ THE CROSS LOWER BY  0.36 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 36 BASIS PTS)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA:  6.2242 PER ONE USA DOLLAR.

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS +.47 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:$70.80

BRENT: $78.58

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.06%

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.20%/

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.7777 UP .01031 ( UP 103 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:112.49 UP 0.156 (YEN UP 16 BASIS POINTS/ .

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 93.89 DOWN 64 cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.3267 UP 127 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 6.2001

the Russian rouble:  66.28 UP 0.44 roubles against the uSA dollar.(UP 44 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar: 1.2908 UP 9 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 6.8468  (ONSHORE)

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH):  6.8362 (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.47%

 

The Dow closed  UP  251.22 POINTS OR 0.95%

NASDAQ closed UP 78,20  points or 0.98% 4.00 PM EST


VOLATILITY INDEX:  11.80  CLOSED UP 0.05

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.335%  .LIBOR  RATES ARE RISING

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

 

Stocks Surge To New Record Highs As Investors Dump

Dollar & Bonds

Seemed appropriate…

China

China stocks went nowhere overnight…seems like the panic buyers from Tuesday have left (cough National Team cough)

 

The Dow finally broke above its January record highs and there were record highs all around for stocks as trade wars are now a buying opportunity (so the narrative goes – if stocks drop, then Trump will pull out of trade war, so buy stocks, durr!!)

US Equity markets gapped up at the cash open and never looked back, but Trannies underperformed…

 

Futures show the week’s incessant bid at the cash opens…

 

The rise in yields prompted renewed buying in financials…though we note the decoupling today…

 

Regional Banking Index broke back above all its key DMAs…

 

Defense stocks sank as North Korea denuclearization headlines hit and Russia didn’t bomb Israel…

 

FAANG stocks are notably decoupled this week ahead of tomorrow’s index reclassification…

 

Sonos was hammered back below its IPO price (47 days after going public) after AMZN announced enhanced features for its Alexa products…

 

Tilray tumbled – almost erasing its gains from yesterday…

 

Treasury yields saw modest rises today…

 

But the bond rout is well off the day’s high yields…

And the dramatic steepening of the yield curve this week has ended…

 

The Dollar Index was dumped early, bounced, then dumped again (intraday, the dollar hit its lowest since July 9th)…

 

We note that the dollar found support at the lower-end of the ECB range…

 

The Loonie was the best performer along with Cable as JPY bucked the trend…

 

Most cryptos were relatively calm today (ignoring the chaos in TLRY today) but Ripple continued to explode…

 

Despite USD weakness commodities went nowhere (with WTI lower)…

 

Gold futures had a mini flash crash at 3amET and WTI rolled over…

 

Finally, with record highs all around, we thought this might be of interest…

end

 

 

market trading/this morning

Early this morning:  this is deadly;  the 10 yr bond yield is up to 3.09% and the 30 yr at 3.25%. Please remember Graham Summers and Alasdair Macleod:  we will have a piercing of the bond prices (higher yields) which will bring down the entire global financial system

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

The Dollar Is Dumping As Bond Rout Spreads

The dollar index is collapsing this morning (helped by strength in cable and the loonie) as the global bond rout continues to spread…

The Bloomber Dollar Index has tumbled to its lowest since July 9th

 

Helped by a surge in Cable back at its highest since July 9th..

As UST bond yields resurge to new cycle highs…

And this time it’s spreading to China, where yields no longer offer any kind of decoupling from US..

As Bloomberg’s Christopher Anstey notes, even though the Chinese economy is slowing, hurt by the weakest investment growth since at least 1999, it’s clear from bond price action that policy makers aren’t prepared to endorse broad monetary stimulus.

Premier Li Keqiang said in a keynote speech Wednesday that while ample liquidity will be maintained and help extended to smaller companies to access financing, China will keep focused on stabilizing leverage.

Li also ruled out yuan devaluation as a strategy in China’s trade war with the U.S., which suggests the need for restraint when thinking about interest-rate cuts or broad liquidity injections.

The trade tensions pose another problem. With prospects for tit-for-tat tariffs stretching into 2019, inflation pressures are likely to mount. Take soybean prices, a key ingredient for meat production: more than one-third of China’s soy imports come from American farmers, with few alternatives in the short term.

That adds to structural catalysts for inflation, such as soaring rents across major cities. A clampdown on the collection of social-security premiums could see firms attempting to raise prices to compensate. While China recently moved to ease the initiative, Morgan Stanley estimated it could cost Chinese companies as much as $350 billion a year.

This all makes for a downright unfriendly environment for rates investors. China’s bond market seemed like a great diversification play earlier this year as yields climbed elsewhere, but that chapter may be over.

In fact some serious volumes are flying through the Treasury futures markets…

Which is sending signals to the algos to panic buy stocks…

end

 

 

 

 

Market data

 

In a strong economy we would see existing home sales rise.  They are falling and they are at the lowest level in 2 and 1/2 years.  And now inventory of unsold homes are rising.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Existing Home Sales At Lowest In 30 Months, Inventories Rise First Time In 3 Years

Following continued weakness in July, analysts once again hope for a rebound in home sales in August but once again they were disappointed. August existing home sales were unchanged from July’s -0.7% drop, hovering at 5.34mm SAAR – the lowest since Feb 2016.

Expectations were for a 0.5% jump in August, but printed unchanged (home sales haven’t seen a monthly increase since March)

Both single-family and multi-family units were unchanged in August as median prices dipped for the second month in a row (up 4.6% YoY still).

The West saw a 5.9% slump MoM in existing home sales as Northeast sales rose 7.6% MoM.

Inventory of available properties rose 2.7% y/y to 1.92m, which was the first increase in more than three years. At the current pace, it would take 4.3 months to sell the homes on the market, compared with 4.1 months a year earlier; Realtors group considers less than five months’ supply consistent with a tight market.

“While inventory continues to show modest year over year gains, it is still far from a healthy level and new home construction is not keeping up to satisfy demand,” said Yun.

“Homes continue to fly off the shelves with a majority of properties selling within a month, indicating that more inventory – especially moderately priced, entry-level homes – would propel sales.”

Hope is high for NAR however…

“There are buyers on the sidelines” ready to re-enter the market, Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said at a press briefing accompanying the report.

“The housing market can turn for the better” as long as inventory continues to rise, he said.

And despite NAHB sentiment near cycle highs, homebuilder stocks and housing data continues to tumble…

Time for some rate-hikes, right?

“Rising interests rates along with high home prices and lack of inventory continues to push entry-level and first time home buyers out of the market,” said Yun.

“Realtors continue to report that the demand is there – that current renters want to become homeowners – but there simply are not enough properties available in their price range.”

USA economic/general stories
Very strange:  Now Feinstein questions Ford’s truth.  The democrats want a full FBI probe BEFORE any hearing. However the FBI will not investigate this. I am relatively sure that Ford will not testify as there are three individuals named in her complaint that said that this event did not occur;
1. Judge
2 Smythe
3. Kavanaugh
(courtesy zerohedge)

Feinstein Questions Kavanaugh Accuser’s Truth, Lawyer Demands Full FBI

Probe Before Hearing

Update: Feinstein has fallen back in line and is now following Ford’s attorney’s narrative, demanding that the hearing be delayed until a full FBI investigation is undertaken.

*  *  *

It’s been quite an evening in politics.

First, the former classmate of Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, who was said to have been in the room when Kavanaugh allegedly sexually assaulted a woman decades ago, has told senators he will not testify at next week’s hearing.

As The Hill reports,  Mark Judge wrote in a brief letter to Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) and Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) that:

He “did not ask to be involved in this matter nor did anyone ask me to be involved.”

“In fact, I have no memory of this alleged incident,” he wrote.

Christine Blasey Ford has said that Judge was in the room at a high school party in the 1980s when Kavanaugh held her down on a bed and tried to remove her clothing.

Senate Democrats earlier Tuesday called on Judge to testify at the hearing scheduled for Monday, and after his refusal to testify, Sen. Doug Jones (D-Ala.) called on the Judiciary Committee to subpoena Judge, which would force him to appear in front of the committee.

Then the story got even more confusing as Townhall reports that Feinstein isn’t sure if Ford is being totally truthful. From Fox News’ Chad Pergram, Feinstein said, that:

Ford “is a woman that has been, I think, profoundly impacted, on this…I can’t say that everything is truthful. I don’t know.

Elliott Schwartz@elliosch

Feinstein’s “I can’t say everything is truthful” quote is accurate. Just ran on Fox.

Chad Pergram

@ChadPergram

From colleague Connor Marley. Feinstein on Ford. Says Ford “is a woman that has been, I think, profoundly impacted, on this..I can’t say that everything is truthful. I don’t know.”

Chad Pergram

@ChadPergram

Feinstein to Fox on Ford when asked if the accusation will impact how mbrs would vote on Kavanaugh: “I know she did not want to go public. That’s why I made the letter. That was taken out of my control”

For someone who didn’t want to go public, it’s odd that she took a polygraph administered by a former FBI agent, who is nameless, and as the Wall Street Journal noted, took steps that one would take to go public when the time arose – she retained lawyer Debra Katz, who is really a Democratic operative, for representation.

Then Feinstein argues that “people” should “let [Ford] be.” Perhaps she should have considered that before the accusation was made public.

Based on what I know at this stage she is credible. And one of the things I know is what happens to women in this situation and how difficult it is, and I hope people will let her be.

Alan He

@alanhe

Video-> Senator Feinstein clarifies her earlier comments to FOX: “Based on what I know at this stage she is credible. And one of the things I know is what happens to women in this situation and how difficult it is, and I hope people will let her be.”

But once those headlines hit, Feinstein was quick to clarify and walk back her words entirely…proclaiming in her own tweet that:

“During every step of this process, I’ve found every single piece of information from Dr. Christine Blasey Ford eminently credible, sincere and believable. She knew this would have a huge effect on her life and she was incredibly brave to come forward.”

Sen Dianne Feinstein

@SenFeinstein

During every step of this process, I’ve found every single piece of information from Dr. Christine Blasey Ford eminently credible, sincere and believable. She knew this would have a huge effect on her life and she was incredibly brave to come forward.

And, according to CBS Newser Alan He, Feinstein added:

“Look I believe she is credible. What we have wanted is an investigation carried out to look at the facts before there was a hearing. The republican majority is apparently not going to do that. But based on what I know at this stage she is credible.”

Alan He

@alanhe

Feinstein just now clarifies: “Look I believe she is credible. What we have wanted is an investigation carried out to look at the facts before there was a hearing. The republican majority is apparently not going to do that. But based on what I know at this stage she is credible.”

Chad Pergram

@ChadPergram

From colleague Connor Marley. Feinstein on Ford. Says Ford “is a woman that has been, I think, profoundly impacted, on this..I can’t say that everything is truthful. I don’t know.”

Every time she uses the word ‘credible’, why do we get that feeling Ford’s crediibility takes a hit?

“We don’t want this to be a three ring circus. We want this to be an orderly and dignified presentation,”Senator Cornyn tells reporters when asked why Monday’s hearing won’t include other witnesses besides Dr. Ford and Judge Kavanaugh… A little late for that Senator.

But wait, it’s not over yet.

Ford’s attorney Lisa Banks says on CNN that discussions about a hearing on Monday is “premature” — says asking her to come forward in public in a few days is not fair (except that this has been on Feinstein’s desk for three months).

Captain Minear@CaptainMinear

You accused someone of raping you in the media, you don’t get to decide you don’t feel like talking about it anymore now that the damage is done

In a letter addressed to Senate Judiciary Chairman Chuck Grassley of Iowa, and obtained by CNN’s “Anderson Cooper 360:”

Ford’s attorneys argue that “a full investigation by law enforcement officials will ensure that the crucial facts and witnesses in this matter are assessed in a non-partisan manner, and that the Committee is fully informed before conducting any hearing or making any decisions.”

The letter from Ford’s lawyers notes that despite receiving a “stunning amount of support from her community,” but Banks added on CNN tonight that Ford has been “deflecting death threats and harrassment” for the last few days and figuring out “where they’re going to sleep at night.”

end

Grassley states that he will not delay the Kavanaugh hearing as now all of the moderate Republicans fell in line as they realized that Ford will not testify.  It is in this commentary that we see the 3rd individual Smythe, who was named by Ford and basically states that the event never happened

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Grassley Says He Won’t Delay Kavanaugh Hearing As Moderate Republicans Fall In Line

Democrats’ Hail Mary play to stymie the confirmation of Trump SCOTUS pick Brett Kavanaugh is beginning to fizzle out. As angry Dems demanded that a Monday hearing on the allegations against Kavanaugh be delayed until the FBI has a chance to investigate, turncoat Republicans (on whom the Dems had been depending for votes) instead withdrew their support and fell in line after Senate Judiciary Chairman Chuck Grassley declared that he would not honor Democrats’ request. Grassley revealed his intention to stand firm late Tuesday after lawyers for Palo Alto University professor Christine Blasey, who is claiming that Kavanaugh attempted to sexually assault her 35 years ago when the two were 17-year-old high school students, said their client wouldn’t be wiling to appear at Monday’s hearing. 

Grassley

According to the HillGrassley said Tuesday that there was “no reason” to delay the hearing now that Republicans have invited both Kavanaugh and Christine Blasey Ford, his accuser, to testify publicly. However, while Ford’s attorneys have insisted that their client has taken a polygraph test and “deserves to be heard”, Ford has bizarrely insisted that the FBI should have an opportunity to investigate her claims before she appears before the committee in order to spare her the “trauma” of confronting her alleged assailant.

Ford’s lawyers conveyed her request in the form of a letter sent to the committee, a copy of which was obtained by CNN.

Letter

But Grassley said he would refuse this request as several Republicans who had appeared to be on the cusp of defecting after saying that the confirmation hearing, initially scheduled for Thursday, should be delayed said they wouldn’t support delaying the hearing if Ford refuses to testify.

Here’s the Hill:

“Republicans extended a hand in good faith. If we don’t hear from both sides on Monday, let’s vote,” said GOP Sen. Bob Corker (Tenn.), who was one of the first Republicans to call for the Judiciary Committee to hit pause on Kavanaugh’s nomination on Sunday.

GOP Sen. Susan Collins (Maine) told reporters earlier Tuesday that Ford’s lack of response to the committee about testifying was “puzzling.”

And GOP Sen. Jeff Flake, who had threatened to vote against Kavanaugh if Ford wasn’t given the chance to be heard, told CNN that he expected the committee to move on if she doesn’t appear.

“I think we’ll have to move to the markup,” he told CNN. “I hope she does (appear). I think she needs to be heard.”

Kavanaugh denies Ford’s allegations, and says he wasn’t even at the party where the physical assault allegedly took place. Patrick Smyth, a fellow former Georgetown Prep student whom Ford alleges was also in attendance during the party issued a statement via his lawyer standing up for Kavanaugh. And in a separate letter to Grassley and Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein, not only does Smyth repudiate Ford’s allegations, but he adds that he doesn’t remember this party even taking place.

Aaron Blake

@AaronBlake

Smyth’s statement is being cast as a denial. It’s more nuanced than that.

“I have no knowledge of the party in question; nor do I have any knowledge of the allegations of improper conduct…”

Of course, Feinstein – who admitted last night that she couldn’t say for certain that Ford’s story is entirely truthful – sat on Ford’s allegations for three months before referring them to the FBI and sharing them with other lawmakers (who purportedly “leaked” it to the press). President Trump on Tuesday said that he “feels sorry” for Kavanaugh, adding that he doesn’t want to “play into [Democrats] hands”, presumably by giving them more time to drag out the confirmation process.

“They should have done this a long time ago, three months ago, not now. But they did it now. So I don’t want to play into their hands,” Trump said.

Without the support of their Republican allies, Democrats will lack the votes on the committee to hold up the nomination past Monday. Though bizarrely, Kavanaugh himself hasn’t said yet whether he would or wouldn’t testify, which begs the question: If neither Kavanaugh nor Ford appear at the hearing, what exactly will lawmakers discuss?

 end

Kavanaugh Accuser Now Willing To Testify Sans FBI Probe, With Conditions

“She wishes to testify, provided that we can agree on terms that are fair and which ensure her safety.”
An outside lawyer will handle the questions instead of the 11 republican senators.
(courtesy zerohedge)

Faced with the possibility of GOP legislators calling Dianne Feinstein’s bluff, Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh’s accuser, Christine Blasey Ford has dramatically flipped, telling legislators in an email somehow obtained by the New York Times that she “would be prepared to testify next week,” so long as senators offer “terms that are fair and which ensure her safety.” 

Blasey claims to have received a multitude of death threats, for which zero arrests have been made in an age of easily-traceable IP addresses.

In the email, obtained by The New York Times, the lawyer for Christine Blasey Ford said that testifying Monday — the timetable Republicans have set for a hearing — “is not possible and the Committee’s insistence that it occur then is arbitrary in any event.” The lawyer reiterated that it is Dr. Blasey’s “strong preference” that “a full investigation” occur before her testimony — wording that stopped short of demanding an F.B.I. probe and suggested she is open to testifying without one. –NYTimes

“As you are aware, she has been receiving death threats, which have been reported to the Federal Bureau of Investigation, and she and her family have been forced out of their home,” the email reads. “She wishes to testify, provided that we can agree on terms that are fair and which ensure her safety.”

Sheryl Gay Stolberg

@SherylNYT

NEW: Text of e-mail from Christine Blasey Ford’s lawyer to Senate Judiciary Committee.

Blasey has accused Kavanaugh of attempted rape during a high school party in Montgomery County, MD. She can’t recall the date, location, or much more about the event – just that Kavanaugh allegedly held her down and groped her while another guy watched (who categorically denies it), and she was able to escape. 

On Thursday, committee GOP agreed to hire an outside counsel to handle questioning of Blasey, rather than have the committee members themselves question her, according to a Republican Senate official familiar with the decision – as opposed to 11 male senators questioning Blasey on her account of the alleged incident.

END

then this:  Ed Whelan former clerk to Antonin Scalia states that he expects “compelling evidence” to come to the forefront next week and that would exonate Kavanaugh completely.  He states that Feinstein will soon be apologizing.

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

Fmr Scalia Clerk Expects “Compelling Evidence” To Exonerate Kavanaugh Next Week; Feinstein “Will Soon Be Apologizing” 

Judge Brett Kavanaugh will be exonerated of wrongdoing and will be confirmed to his post on the US Supreme Court, according to Ed Whelan – a former clerk to USSC Justice Antonin Scalia and current president of the Ethics and Public Policy Center (EPPC), a conservative think tank. 

Amid a series of cryptic and not-so-cryptic tweets in the last 48 hours, Whelan says: “By one week from today, I expect that Judge Kavanaugh will have been clearly vindicated on this matter. Specifically, I expect that compelling evidence will show his categorical denial to be truthful. There will be no cloud over him.”

Ed Whelan@EdWhelanEPPC

By one week from today, I expect that Judge Kavanaugh will have been clearly vindicated on this matter. Specifically, I expect that compelling evidence will show his categorical denial to be truthful. There will be no cloud over him.

Wahlen then followed up with a series of tweets suggesting that the accusation may have even been made in good-faith.

“It’s precisely b/c sexual assault is so terrible that it is deeply unjust when someone is mistakenly (even good-faith mistakenly) accused of having committed it,” he said. “Everyone should rejoice when the mistake is found.”

Ed Whelan@EdWhelanEPPC

Sexual assault is a terrible thing. Its victims suffer grievously. It’s precisely b/c sexual assault is so terrible that it is deeply unjust when someone is mistakenly (even good-faith mistakenly) accused of having committed it. Everyone should rejoice when the mistake is found.

Ed Whelan@EdWhelanEPPC

And the sooner the mistake is discovered, the better.

Ed Whelan@EdWhelanEPPC

Sexual assault is a terrible thing. Its victims suffer grievously. It’s precisely b/c sexual assault is so terrible that it is deeply unjust when someone is mistakenly (even good-faith mistakenly) accused of having committed it. Everyone should rejoice when the mistake is found.

As Law and Crimenotes:

Is Whelan implying that Christine Ford has mistaken Kavanaugh for someone else ? Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) recently suggested, to the dismay of some, that this might be the case when he said Ford might be “mixed up.”

Whelan did link to a Yahoo story saying this may be a case of “mistaken identity.”

Ed Whelan@EdWhelanEPPC

A horrific incident similar to the one the accuser alleges may well have occurred. But if so, she’s got the wrong guy. Kavanaugh wasn’t present, as this and much more will confirm.https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/18/politics/pj-smyth-brett-kavanaugh/index.html 

Kavanaugh ex-classmate denies being at party in sexual assault allegation

In a letter to the Senate Judiciary Committee, another former classmate of Brett Kavanaugh’s denies attending a party like the one described in the allegation made by Christine Blasey Ford, who has…

cnn.com

Whelan also says that Senator Feinstein “will soon be apologizing to Judge Kavanaugh.”

Ed Whelan@EdWhelanEPPC

Senator Feinstein will soon be apologizing to Judge Kavanaugh.

Ed Whelan@EdWhelanEPPC

By one week from today, I expect that Judge Kavanaugh will have been clearly vindicated on this matter. Specifically, I expect that compelling evidence will show his categorical denial to be truthful. There will be no cloud over him.

Ed Whelan@EdWhelanEPPC

Impressive decency and generosity in the face of terrible suffering that will be shown to have been deeply unjust.

Kathryn Watson

@kathrynw5

Per our CBS News cameraman at Kavanaugh’s house, his wife handed out cupcakes from Sprinkles to any of the photogs and producers who wanted them.

END

SWAMP STORIES

The war begins as FBI and DOJ top officials are refusing to obey President Trump’s edict as the plan on insubordination.

This will turn out to be a huge war…

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

FBI, DOJ To Defy Trump Order; Redactions Planned As

Top Deep State’ Dems Demand Insubordination

Despite President Trump’s Monday order for the “immediate declassification” of sensitive materials related to the Russia investigation, “without redaction,” the agencies involved are planning to do so anyway, according to Bloomberg, citing three people familiar with the matter. 

The Justice Department, FBI and Office of the Director of National Intelligence are going through a methodical review and can’t offer a timeline for finishing, said the people, who weren’t authorized to speak publicly about the sensitive matter. –Bloomberg

Trump ordered the DOJ to release the text messages of former FBI Director James Comey, his deputy Andrew McCabe, now-fired special agent Peter Strzok, former FBI attorney Lisa Page and twice-demoted DOJ official Bruce Ohr.

Also ordered released are specific pages from the FBI’s FISA surveillance warrant application on former Trump campaign aide Carter Page, as well as interviews with Ohr.

The DOJ and the FBI are expected to submit proposed redactions to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence – which will prepare a package for Trump to sign off on. 

“When the president issues such an order, it triggers a declassification review process that is conducted by various agencies within the intelligence community, in conjunction with the White House counsel, to seek to ensure the safety of America’s national security interests,” a Justice Department spokesman said in a statement. “The department and the Federal Bureau of Investigation are already working with the Director of National Intelligence to comply with the president’s order.

The agencies are likely to cite national security concerns over revealing classified “sources and methods” pertaining to the Russia investigation – which will put them in direct conflict with Trump’s order. Trump, as president, has the power to override the agencies and declassify material on his own. 

Trump’s order to release the documents comes after months of requests from GOP lawmakers, while the DOJ has repeatedly denied their requests for more transparency.

The FBI’s spy…

According to Bloomberg, the DOJ is interpreting Trump’s request to include information about the use of confidential informant (spy) Stephan Halper during the early stages of the Trump-Russia investigation. After taking in over $400,000 from the Obama Pentagon under the auspices of a research contract, Halper befriended and spied on members of the Trump campaign, including aides Carter Page and George Papadopoulos.

Showdown?

Top Congressional Democrats Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, Adam Schiff and Mark Warner penned a joint letter to ODNI Director Dan Coates, Deputy AG Rod Rosenstein and FBI Director Christopher Wray demanding that the agencies defy President Trump.

Byron York

@ByronYork

Showdown? In letter, Pelosi/Schumer/Schiff/Warner order intel agencies to ignore presidential order on declassification until consulting with Congress. http://ow.ly/Mplg30lSrYn 

In the letter, the lawmakers “express profound alarm” at the decision to “intervene in an ongoing law enforcement investigation that may implicate the President himself or those around him.”

“Any decision by your offices to share this material with the President or his lawyers will violate longstanding Department of Justice polices, as well as assurances you have provided to us.”

The letter then demands that the agencies brief the Gang of Eight before releasing the materials “to anyone at the White House.”  

In short, prepare for fireworks...

 

END
Watch your deep state in action:  Project Veritas reveals socialist employee admitting that he braks rules every day
(courtesy Project Veritas/zerohedge)

Third Veritas Video Reveals Socialist GAO Empoyee Admitting “I Break Rules Every Day”

The third installment of Project Veritas’ undercover series on socialists within government features an auditor for the Government Accountability Office (GAO) admitting to breaking rules “every day” in order to conduct business for the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA).

The first two undercover videos in the series revealed a DSA member within the State Department who is “engaged in radical socialist political activity on the taxpayer’s dime,” and a DOJ employee pursuing the same goals – who said there is “a lot of talk about how we can, like, resist from the inside.

The DOJ is investigating.

Thursday’s video features Natarajan Subramanian – a GAO accountant and self-proclaimed Communist who admits to actively working for the DSA.

“No one knows I spent six hours yesterday doing social media for DSA.” -Natarajan Subramanian

He adds: “Do I care more about having this job, or do I care more about the [DSA] movement, and I was like… obviously the movement.”

Natarajan Subramanian is a government auditor for the GAO and a member of the Metro DC Democratic Socialists of America (Metro DC DSA).

Metro DC DSA is a socialist group that works to advance progressive issues in the Metropolitan DC area. Subramanian’s political activism may directly violate federal statutes as well as the “Yellow Book” rules which apply specifically to government auditors. –Project Veritas

Subramanian says that federal employees in executive branch agencies can slow work down to a crawl in order to stall the president’s agenda.

“If you’re in [an] executive branch agency you can slow ball things to a degree, that it’s like ineffective, and maybe you get in trouble, or maybe you get fired or resign or whatever, but you slowed [Trump’s agenda] down for a certain period of time.” -Natarajan Subramanian

Watch:

end
From the King report:
and a special thank you to Chris Powell of GATA for sending this to us
(King report/GATA/Chris Powell)_
Former Prosecutor to Ingraham: GOP Can’t Back Down on Kavanaugh
Republicans are sick of Republicans’ not fighting. And if they were to postpone this vote, I will guarantee you, they will lose the Senate.”…
@ByronYork: Odd to hear Senate Democrats repeat demands for FBI investigation of Ford-Kavanaugh. Here’s question: Why don’t they do it themselves? Senate Judiciary Committee minority staff has investigators. They could interview Ford, look for other witnesses. [They probably already did that, By.]
end
Seems that the FBI had two sets of books, the real truth which is buried and the phony stuff that was released to the public.
The Dept of Justice is slow walking the documents due to the fact that it will implicate all of the them in this huge crime.
(courtesy zerohedge/Sean Hannity/Greg Jarrett)

FBI Had “Two Sets Of Records” On Trump Investigation; Comey, McCabe Implicated: Carter

Journalist Sara Carter told Sean Hannity during his Wednesday radio show that the FBI has two sets of records in the Russia investigation, and that “certain people above Peter Strzok and above Lisa Page” were aware of it – implicating former FBI Director James Comey and his #2, Andrew McCabe.

Hannity: Sara, I’m hearing it gets worse than this–that there is potentially out there–if you will, two sets of record among the upper echelon of the FBI–one that was real one that was made for appearances. Is there any truth to this?

CarterAbsolutely, Sean. With the number of sources that I have been speaking with as well as some others that there is evidence indicating that the FBI had separate sets of books.

I will not name names until all of the evidence is out there, but there were certain people above Peter Strzok and above Lisa Page that were aware of this. I also believe that there are people within the FBI that have actually turned on their former employers and are possibly even testifying and reporting what happened inside the FBI to both the Inspector General and possibly even a Grand Jury.

 

Listen:

(h/t Christina Lalia @ Gate

(h/t Christina Lalia @ Gateway Pundit)

end

Seems that the FBI had two sets of books, the real truth which is buried and the phony stuff that was released to the public.
The Dept of Justice is slow walking the documents due to the fact that it will implicate all of the them in this huge crime.
(courtesy zerohedge/Sean Hannity/Greg Jarrett)

WE WILL SEE YOU ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

 

ALL THE BEST

 

 

HARVEY

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