OCTOBER 5

GOLD: $1201.60 UP  $3.75 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver:   $14.63  UP 5 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

 

Closing access prices:

Gold :  1203.00

 

silver: $14.65

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold and silver:

OCT

 

 

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  OCT CONTRACT:  0 NOTICE(S) FOR NIL OZ 

Total number of notices filed so far for OCT:  850 for 100 OZ  (2.6438 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

 

FOR OCTOBER

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0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

NIL OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 295 for 1,475,000 oz

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Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE  $6593: UP  $2

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $6595  UP $4 

 

end

First Shanghai gold fix comes at 10 pm est

The second Shanghai gold fix:  2:15 pm

First Shanghai gold fix gold: 10 pm est: $not available

NY price  at the same time:$xxx

 

PREMIUM TO NY SPOT: $xxx

XX

Second gold fix early this morning: $ NOT AVAILABLE

 

 

USA gold at the exact same time:$XXX

 

PREMIUM TO NY SPOT:  $XXX

XXXX

 

China is controlling the gold market

WE WILL NOT PROVIDE LONDON FIXES AS THEY ARE NOT ACCURATE AS TO WHAT IS GOING ON AT THE SAME TIME FRAME.

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1185 CONTRACTS FROM 201,173UP TO  201,343 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S  9 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE  MOVED A LITTLE CLOSER TO AUGUST’S RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY(WELL OVER 30 MILLION OZ AT THE COMEX FOR JULY , 6 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST AND NOW JUST LESS THAN 31 MILLION OZ STANDING IN SEPTEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

EFP’S FOR OCT.  2166 EFP’S FOR DECEMBER AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 2166 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 592 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 2166 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 10.83 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 9 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR THE JUNE/2018 COMEX DELIVERY MONTH. (5.420 MILLION OZ);  30.370 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN JULY, FOR AUGUST: 6.065 MILLION OZ AND  39.505 MILLION  OZ STANDING  IN SEPT. AND 1,590,000 OZ STANDING IN OCTOBER.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF SEPT: 

9793 CONTRACTS (FOR 5 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 9793 CONTRACTS) OR 48.96 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1959 CONTRACTS OR 48.96 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF SEPT:  48.135 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 6.87% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:           2,264.48    MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018:                                              236.879     MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018:                                               244.95       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018:                                        236.67       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL 2018:                                           385.75        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MAY 2018:                                             210.05        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JUNE 2018:                                           345.43         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JULY 2018:                                            172.84          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR AUGUST 2018:                                      205.23          MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR SEPTEMBER 2018:                                 167,05          MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1185 DESPITE THE 9 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX //YESTERDAY. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2166 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED:3351TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 2166 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 1185  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 9 CENT FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.69 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN THE BIG JULY DELIVERY MONTH OF SLIGHTLY OVER 30 MILLION OZ, IN AUGUST ANOTHER BIG 6.065 MILLION OZ IN A NON ACTIVE MONTH AND IN SEPTEMBER AN FINAL MONSTROUS 39.505 MILLION OZ OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY… NOBODY IS PAYING ATTENTION TO THE HUGE NUMBER OF PHYSICAL OUNCES STANDING FOR SILVER THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS.

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.007 MILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 144% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT AUGUST MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 0NOTICE(S) FOR NIL OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  AN INITIAL HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./AND NOW OCTOBER:1,590,000 oz
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 6476CONTRACTS UP TO 462,976 DESPITE THE FALL IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/YESTERDAY’S TRADING (A LOSS IN PRICE OF $1.20).THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED AN STRONG SIZED 9374CONTRACTS: ALWAYS, ON THE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE IN ANY ACTIVE MONTH WHETHER GOLD OR SILVER THE OI COLLAPSES.  IT IS HERE THAT THE MIGRANTS RECEIVE THEIR FIAT BONUS FOR ENGAGING IN THIS EXERCISE. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING EFP ISSUANCE FOR TODAY:

 

OCTOBER HAD EFP’S ISSUED AND, DECEMBER HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 9374 CONTACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 462,976. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A HUMONGOUS SIZED OI GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 15,850 CONTRACTS:  6476 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 9374 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN: 15850 CONTRACTS OR  1,585,000 OZ = 49.30 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS HUGE DEMAND  OCCURRED WITH A FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ YESTERDAY TO THE TUNE OF $1.20???

 

 

 

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 7314 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT : 41,428CONTRACTS OR 4,142,800 OZ OR 128.85TONNES (5 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 8285 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY OR 801,400 OZ/ TRADING DAY),,

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 5 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 128.85 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 128.85/2550 x 100% TONNES =  5.05% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN JULY ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE:     5,796.43*  TONNES   *SURPASSED ANNUAL PROD’N

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018:           653.22  TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018:         649.45 TONNES  (20 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018:             741.89 TONNES  (22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR APRIL 2018:                 713.84 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MAY 2018:                   693.80 TONNES ( 22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JUNE 2018                      650.71 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JULY 2018                       605.5 TONNES     (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR AUG. 2018                      488.54  TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR SEPT 2018                       470.64 TONNES   (19 TRADING DAYS)

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 6476 DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICING ($1.20 THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //. WE ALSO HAD AN GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 9374 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 9374 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A HUMONGOUS  GAIN OF 15,850CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

9374 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 6476 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 49.30 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF GOOD DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A LOSS OF $1.20 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.???

 

 

we had: notice(s) filed upon for NIL oz of gold at the comex.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD UP $3,75 TODAY: / 

ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN INVENTOR TODAY

A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES DESPITE THE RISE…

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/GLD INVENTORY   730.17 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 730.17 tonnes.

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.475 MILLION OZ.

 

NOTE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GLD AND SLV: THE CROOKS CAN RAID GOLD BECAUSE THEY DO HAVE SOME PHYSICAL.  THEY DO NOT RAID SILVER PROBABLY BECAUSE THERE IS NO REAL SILVER INVENTORIES BEHIND THEM

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1185 CONTRACTS from 200,160 UP TO  201,345  AND MOVING A LITTLE CLOSER  TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

 

2166 CONTRACTS FOR DECEMBER AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2166 CONTRACTS . EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF13CONTRACTS TO THE 2166 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG NET GAIN OF 3351 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 16.76MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER…AND NOW 1.590 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.

 

 

RESULT: A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 9 CENT PRICING LOSS THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING YESTERDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED 2166 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

) FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED FOR A HOLIDAY

 

/Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 51.30 POINTS OR 0.19% //The Nikkei closed DOWN 135.34 POINTS OR 0.56%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.12%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.8689 AS POBC STOPS  ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER CANCELLED/Oil DOWN to 74.23 dollars per barrel for WTI and 84.74 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AT 6.8686 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8689: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS STOPS// TRADE TALKS STOPPED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER  AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA/

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C/  CHINA

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

 

 

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

 

 

 

 

 

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

i)ARGENTINA

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

 

 

 

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING

 
ii)Market data

 

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

.

 

 

iv)SWAMP STORIES

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

The total gold comex open interest ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 6476 CONTRACTS UP to an OI level 462,976 DESPITE THE FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($1.20 LOSS YESTERDAY’S COMEX TRADING). FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE. ONCE WE GET TO FIRST DAY NOTICE, THEN THE OPEN INTEREST RISES AND AGAIN THEY DID NOT DISAPPOINT US.

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED AN STRONG SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 9374 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

OCTOBER: 0 EFP’S AND DECEMBER:  9374 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  9374CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A 15850 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 9374 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED 6476 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  15850 contracts OR 1,585,000 OZ OR 49.30 TONNES.

Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE/ YESTERDAY (ENDING UP WITH THE FALL IN PRICE OF $1.20). THE  TOTAL OPEN INTEREST GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  15850 OI CONTRACTS..

We are now in the active contract month of OCTOBER. For the October contract month, we lost 489 contracts to fall to 213 contracts.  We had 2 notices yesterday, so we lost 487 contracts or 48,700oz will not stand for delivery at the comex and these guys marched over to London as they received London based forwards on top of a fiat bonus for their hard work.

The next delivery month is the non active NOVEMBER contract month and here the OI ROSE by 5 contracts down to 608.  The next delivery month after November is the very big December contract month and here the OI ROSE by 1565 contracts down to 374,043 contracts.

 

 

 

 

WE HAD 0 NOTICE FILED AT THE COMEX FOR NIL OZ.

 

FOR COMPARISON BETWEEN LAST YR AND TODAY:

 

FOR THE OCTOBER CONTRACT MONTH: OCTOBER IS THE WEAKEST OF ALL DELIVERY MONTHS IN GOLD.

FOR THE COMEX OCT 2017 GOLD CONTRACT MONTH: WE INITIALLY HAD 300,600 OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY OR 9.349 TONNES. (VS 13.695 TONNES OCT 2018)

AT THE CONCLUSION OF THE OCTOBER/2017 TRADING MONTH: 333,300 OZ OR 10.367 TONNES FINALLY STOOD FOR DELIVERY

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 1185 CONTRACTS FROM 200,160 UP TO 201,345 (AND CLOSER TO  THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S OI COMEX LOSS OCCURRED WITH A 9 CENT FALL IN PRICING.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER AND, WE WERE  INFORMED THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED 2166 EFP CONTRACTS:

 

FOR DECEMBER: 2166 CONTRACTS AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS.  THESE EFPS WERE ISSUED TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 2166.  ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 3351 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A 1185 CONTRACT LOSS AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 2166 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:   3351 CONTRACTS…AND ALL OF DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 9 CENT FALL IN PRICING.

 

 

 

 

We are now in the non active delivery month of October and here we had a loss of 19 contracts to stand at 4 contracts.  We had 19 notices filed YESTERDAY so we gained 0 contracts or NIL oz will stand for delivery at the comex as these guys refused to accept a London based forward plus as well as a fiat bonus 

 

After October, is the non active delivery month of November and here we lost 3 contracts down to 435 contracts.  After November, we have a December contract and here we lost 385 contracts down to 167,851

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We had 0 notice(s) filed for NIL OZ for the SEPTEMBER 2018 COMEX contract for silver

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

 

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY: 264,276 contracts,

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  307,198  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

 

AND NOW COMPARISON FOR OCTOBER:

 

FOR THE OCTOBER 2017 CONTRACT MONTH WE HAD 4.205,000 OZ OF SILVER INITIALLY STAND FOR DELIVERY.

BY MONTH’S END WE HAD 5,475,000 OZ FINALLY STAND AS QUEUE JUMPING IN SILVER WAS ALREADY IN THE NORM.

OCTOBER IS A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH FOR SILVER BUT AS YOU CAN SEE OCT 2017 DELIVERIES WERE PRETTY

GOOD.

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  OCT/GOLD

OCT 5-/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 xxxx oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz xxx oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

xxxx

 

oz

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
0 notice(s)
 NIL OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
2163 contracts
(216,300 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
850 notices
85000 OZ
2.6438TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had xxx dealer entry:

 

total gold entering dealer:  xxx oz

total gold withdrawing from the dealer; xxxoz

 

we had 0 kilobar transaction/
we had xx withdrawal out of the customer account:
i) Out of Brinks:  xxx oz
total customer withdrawals:  xxx oz
we had xx customer deposit
i) Into xxx: xxx oz
total customer deposits: xxx oz
we had xx adjustments
i

FOR THE OCTOBER 2018 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 0 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT/2018. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (850) x 100 oz or 100 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT. (2163 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (0 x 100 oz per contract) equals 301,300 OZ OR 9.3717 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this non active month of OCT

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT/2018 contract month:

No of notices served (850 x 100 oz)  + {2163)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (0x 100 oz )which equals 301,300 oz standing OR 9.3717 TONNES in this active delivery month of OCTOBER.

 

 

 

 

 

THERE ARE ONLY 4.544 TONNES OF REGISTERED COMEX GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 9.3717 TONNES STANDING FOR OCTOBER  

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  145,041.066 oz or   4.544 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,331,574.891 oz 259.14 tonnes

IN THE LAST 25 MONTHS 96 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE AUGUST DELIVERY MONTH

OCTOBER INITIAL standings/SILVER

OCT 5 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory xxx oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 xxx oz

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nxxx
oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
xxx
oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
0
CONTRACT(S)
NIL OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
4 contract
(20,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 314 contracts

(1,570,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: nil oz

we had 1 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 142.435 million oz of  total silver inventory or 48.9% of all official comex silver. (142 million/291 million)

ii) Into  xxx

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today: XXXX  oz

we had  xxx withdrawals from the customer account;

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  xxx million

total dealer + customer silver:  xxx million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the OCTOBER 2018. contract month is represented by 0 contract(s) FOR NIL oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 314 x 5,000 oz = 1,570,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT. (4) and the number of notices served upon today (0 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the OCT/2018 contract month: 314(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of OCT (4) -number of notices served upon today (0)x 5000 oz equals 1,590,000 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month.  This is a huge number of oz standing for an off delivery month.

We gained 0 contracts oran additional NIL oz will  be standing at the Comex as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards on top of not receiving a fiat bonus .

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 65,179 CONTRACTS   

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 82,527 CONTRACTS..

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 82,527 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO 412 million OZ  OR 58.9% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -3.82% (SEPT.28/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -1.88% to NAV (SEPT 28/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -3.82%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.22/TRADING 11.68/DISCOUNT 4.47.

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

OCT 5/WITH GOLD UP $3.75, WE HAD A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17 TONNES

OCT 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.90/WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/731.64 TONNES

OCT 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.05, ANOTHER HUGE REMOVAL OF 6.18 TONNES

OCT 2WITH GOLD UP $15.80 TODAY A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 8.35 TONNES

OCT 1…GOLD ADDS 3.94 TONNES TO THE GLDINVENTORY RESTS AT 746.17 TONNES

SEPT 28/WITH GOLD UP $8.90/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.23 TONNES

SEPT 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.90: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.23 TONNES

SEPT 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.05: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.23 TONNES

SEPT 25/WITH GOLD UP 0.75: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.23 TONNES

SEPT 24/WITH GOLD UP $3.20: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.23 TONNES

SEPT 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.90/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.23 TONNES

SEPT 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.80/A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .3 TONNES AND THIS IS TO PAY FOR FEES/742.23 TONNES

SEPT 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.53 TONNES

SEPT 17/WITH GOLD UP $5.20: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.53 TONNES

SEPT 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.95 TODAY, ANOTHER HUGE 2.65 TONNES OF GOLD WAS REMOVED FROM INVENTORY AT THE GLD..PRETTY SOON WE WILL HAVE ZERO INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.53 TONNES

SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 745.18 TONNES

SEPT 12/WITH GOLD UP $8.00 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 745.18 TONNES

SEPT 11/WITH GOLD UP $3.00 TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF .26 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 745.18 TONNES

SEPT 10/WITH GOLD DOWN 80 CENTS/ANOTHER HUGE 1.44 TONNES OF WITHDRAWAL FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 745.44 TONNES

SEPT 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.75: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 746.92 TONNES

SEPT 6/WITH GOLD UP $3.05 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 746.92

SEPT 5/WITH GOLD UP $2.30 TODAY, WE HAD ANOTHER WHOPPER OF A WITHDRAWAL:  6.24 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 746.92 TONNES

SEPT 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65: ANOTHER 2.65 TONNES OF GOLD LEAVE THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.16 TONNES/

AUGUST 31/WITH GOLD UP $2.15:ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 2.06 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.81 TONNES

AUGUST 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.90: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.87 TONNES

AUGUST 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.90 (COMEX TO COMEX BUT UP 6.00 DOLLARS FROM ACCESS CLOSING) THE CROOKS RAIDED THE COOKIE JAR ONCE AGAIN TO THE TUNE OF 4.71 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.87 TONNES AFTER THE WITHDRAWAL.

AUGUST 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.60: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.58 TONNES

AUGUST 27/WITH GOLD UP ANOTHER $3.00: ANOTHER SURPRISE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.65 TONNES FROM THE GLD/SHAREHOLDERS OF GLD ARE DUMB OWING THIS CRAP/INVENTORY RESTS AT 764.58 TONNES

AUGUST 24/WITH GOLD UP $18.65 TODAY/A SURPRISE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.53 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 767.23 TONNES

AUGUST 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.20: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 768.70 TONNES

AUGUST 22/WITH GOLD UP $3.45: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 768.70 TONNES

AUGUST 21: WITH GOLD UP $5.75/A  BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.54 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 768.70 TONNES

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

OCT 5.2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 730.17 tonnes

*IN LAST 471 TRADING DAYS: 203.01 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 371 TRADING DAYS: A NET 46.48 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

OCT 5/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS, NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

OCT 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS/A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.316 MILLION OZ

OCT 3WITH SILVER FLAT, A GOOD INCREASE OF 1.879 MILLION OZ INTO INVENTORY

OCT 2 A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTOR RESTS AT 332.912

OCT 1.NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.046 MILLION  OZ.

SEPT 28/WITH SILVER UP 41 CENTS, STRANGELY WE HAD A WITHDRAWAL OF .517 MILLION OZ AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.046 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.457 MILLION OZ AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.563 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 335.020 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 25/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS: STRANGE!! A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SVL: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.645 MILLION OZ/.INVENTORY RESTS AT 335.020 MILLION OZ/

WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.692 MILLION OZ INTO THE INVENTORY OF THE SLV

INVENTORY RESTS AT 336.665 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 21/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 20/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 17/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.316 MILLION OZ OF SILVER ENTERS SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 12/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.657 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 11./WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY/WE HAD NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.657 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 10.WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY, WE HAD ANOTHER DEPOSIT OF 940,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.657 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS (AND DOWN 48 CENTS FOR THE WEEK): WE HAD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.008 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/

SEPT 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TO: A SLIGHT CHANGE, A WITHDRAWAL OF 147,000 OZ AND THIS IS TO PAY FOR FEES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.709 MILLION OZ/

 

SEPT 5./WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.856 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.856 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 31/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.856 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY, A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 742,000 AT THE SLV/  .INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.856 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 27/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 24./WITH SILVER UP 26 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 20 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

AUGUST 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 1 CENT/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 329.104 MILLION OZ/

 

 

 

OCT 5/2018:

 

Inventory 333.475 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

HUGE JUMP IN LIBOR AND GOFO RATES

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.15/ and libor 6 month duration 2.63

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0FO+ 2.15

 

libor 2.63 FOR 6 MONTHS/

GOLD LENDING RATE: .48%

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.56%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.96

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.40

end

THE GOLD COT REPORT

Gold COT Report – Futures
Large Speculators Commercial Total
Long Short Spreading Long Short Long Short
192,490 214,312 48,629 169,371 160,496 410,490 423,437
Change from Prior Reporting Period
-450 3,724 -3,268 1,467 -328 -2,251 128
Traders
177 100 82 54 49 266 197
  Small Speculators   © GoldSeek.com  
  Long Short Open Interest  
  49,286 36,339 459,776  
  1,748 -631 -503  
  non reportable positions Change from the previous reporting period  
COT Gold Report – Positions as of Tuesday, October 2, 2018

OUR LARGE SPECULATORS

those  large speculators who are long in gold pitched (transferred) 450 contracts

those large speculators who are short in gold added 3724 contracts

 

OUR COMMERCIALS/

those commercials who have been long in gold added 1467 contracts to their long side

those commercials who have been short in gold covered (transferred) 328 contracts

OUR SMALL  SPECS..

those small specs who have been long in gold added 1748 contracts to their long side

those large specs who have been short in gold covered (transferred) 631 contracts from their short side.

OUR SILVER COT

OUR LARGE SPECULATORS

those large speculators who have been long in silver pitched (transferred) 3261 contracts.

those large speculators who have been short in silver covered (transferred) 9018  contracts/

 

OUR COMMERCIALS

those commercials who have been long in silver added 695 contracts to the long side

those commercials who have been short in silver added 7093 contracts to the short side

OUR SMALL  SPECS..

those small specs who have been long in silver pitched (transferred) 917 contracts

those small specs who have been short in silver covered (transferred) 1390 contracts

Conclusions on both gold and silver:

With the use of EFP’s this data is totally useless!!

 

 

Major gold/silver trading /commentaries for THURSDAY

GOLDCORE/BLOG/MARK O’BYRNE.

Poland and Australia Buy Gold As Global Property Bubble Bursts – This Week’s Golden Nuggets

News, Commentary, Charts and Videos You May Have Missed

Here is our Friday digest of the important news, commentary, charts and videos we were informed by this week.

We released our latest short video update in which we explored whether the global property bubble was beginning to burst?


Positive developments in the gold market included a surge in demand for gold and silver bullion coins ‘Down Under’ with our friends at the Perth Mint of Western Australia (we have been an Approved Dealer since 2005). As the Aussie property bubble continues to burst, risk-averse investors are accumulating physical gold and silver as hedges and insurance.

Another important development was an EU central bank buying gold for the first time since 1998. Poland’s central bank added to its gold reserves in August, buying more than seven tons of gold, which followed its purchase of two tons in July.

The prudent are advocating reducing allocations to overvalued risk assets – especially bonds. We featured an excellent article by Money Week editor John Stepek in which he made the case for owning equities and gold, rather than bonds.

Stepek’s article was prescient as bond markets, especially the US bond market, have seen serious sell-offs and a marked rise in yields yesterday. The serious ramifications of this for stock markets and the wider market is now being digested.

Enjoy and have a nice weekend!


Market Updates and News This Week

Are Global Property Bubbles Starting To Burst? GoldCore Video

Interest Rates Are Spiking Again: Why This Is A Huge Deal

Perth Mint’s Gold and Silver Bullion Coin Sales Soar In September

“I’m Favouring Equities and Gold Over Bonds” – Stepek

Poland Buys Gold For First Time In 20 years

“Gold Is Very Oversold And Due A Bounce” said GoldCore

Silver and Platinum Are Both Very Cheap

 

Charts This Week


Source: Bloomberg

 

Source: Bloomberg

 

Source: Bloomberg

 

Source: ZeroHedge

 

 

 

   Period       Gold (oz)       Silver (oz)
      (year-month)                  
    2018-September         62,552          1,305,600
       2018-August         38,904           520,245 
         2018-July          29,921           486,821
         2018-June          16,847           229,280
          2018-May          14,800           557,120
                                    
        2018-April          15,161           458,655
        2018-March          29,883           975,921
          2018-Feb          26,473           992,954
          2018-Jan          37,174         1,067,361
          2017-Dec          27,009           874,437
          2017-Nov          23,901           544,436
          2017-Oct          44,618           999,425
         2017-Sept          46,415           697,849
          2017-Aug          23,130           392,091
         2017-July          23,675         1,167,963
         2017-June          19,259         1,215,071
          2017-May          29,679           826,656
        2017-April          10,490           468,977
        2017-March          22,232           716,283
          2017-Feb          25,257           502,353
          2017-Jan          72,745         1,230,867
          2016-Dec          63,420           430,009
          2016-Nov          54,747           984,622
          2016-Oct          79,048         1,084,213
         2016-Sept          58,811         1,031,858
          2016-Aug          14,684           376,461
         2016-July          16,870           693,447
         2016-June          31,368         1,220,817
          2016-May          21,035           974,865
        2016-April          47,542         1,161,766
        2016-March          47,948         1,756,238
          2016-Feb          37,063         1,049,062
          2016-Jan          47,759         1,473,408
Perth Mint Gold and Silver Sales (Monthly via Reuters)

 

Videos This Week

 

 

 

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

04 Oct: USD 1,199.45, GBP 925.02 & EUR 1,043.28 per ounce
03 Oct: USD 1,203.50, GBP 925.73 & EUR 1,040.55 per ounce
02 Oct: USD 1,192.65, GBP 919.77 & EUR 1,035.46 per ounce
01 Oct: USD 1,185.30, GBP 907.94 & EUR 1,021.02 per ounce
28 Sep: USD 1,183.50, GBP 906.44 & EUR 1,020.41 per ounce
27 Sep: USD 1,196.00, GBP 911.59 & EUR 1,020.91 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

04 Oct: USD 14.63, GBP 11.27 & EUR 12.72 per ounce
03 Oct: USD 14.74, GBP 11.36 & EUR 12.75 per ounce
02 Oct: USD 14.51, GBP 11.20 & EUR 12.59 per ounce
01 Oct: USD 14.55, GBP 11.16 & EUR 12.53 per ounce
28 Sep: USD 14.31, GBP 10.97 & EUR 12.35 per ounce
27 Sep: USD 14.42, GBP 10.98 & EUR 12.31 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– Brexit To Burst Dublin and London Property Bubbles? GoldCore Video
– Perth Mint’s Gold and Silver Bullion Coin Sales Soar In September
– “I’m Favouring Equities and Gold Over Bonds” – Stepek
– Poland Buys Gold For First Time In 20 years
– This Week’s Golden Nuggets – Central Banks, Goldman, Bank of America Positive On Undervalued Gold
– Central Banks Positivity Towards Gold Will Provide Long Term “Support To Gold Prices”
– Europe Unveils “Special Purpose Vehicle” With Russia and China To Bypass SWIFT, Jeopardizing Dollar’s Reserve Status
– Gold Set to Soar Above $1,300 – Goldman and Bank of America
– Goldnomics Podcast: Silver Guru – David Morgan – Silver and Gold Will Protect in the Coming Currency Collapse
– This Week’s Golden Nuggets – Dalio’s Dollar Crisis, Fitt’s U.S. Government “Missing” $21 Trillion and Silver Guru’s End of Empire
– Dalio Warns Of Dollar Crisis – “History Is Doomed To Repeat Itself”
– Silver Guru Video: “The End of Empire and End of Fiat Currencies”

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director
 
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END

 

The following is self explanatory

(courtesy GATA/Chris Powell and Harvey Organ)

GATA asks bank regulator to check risks of gold futures maneuver

 

 Section: 

12:21p ET Sunday, June 10, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GATA has appealed to the U.S. comptroller of the currency, who has regulatory authority over banks, to review financial risks certain banks may have incurred through derivatives in the monetary metals markets, particularly through the recent heavy use of the “exchange for physicals” mechanism of settling gold and silver futures contracts on the New York Commodities Exchange.

The appeal was made in a letter sent May 5 to the comptroller, Joseph M. Otting, whose office is part of the U.S. Treasury Department, by your secretary/treasurer and GATA futures market consultant Harvey Organ.

“Exchange for physical” settlements of futures contracts long were considered emergency procedures when a seller was not able to deliver metal from an exchange-approved warehouse and wanted to settle with delivery elsewhere. But now such settlements appear to constitute most gold and silver futures settlements on the Comex. It is a strange development that appears to have been necessitated by the increasing difficulties of central banking’s gold and silver price suppression policy.

GATA has received no acknowledgment of the letter. Its text is below and a PDF copy of it is here:

http://www.gata.org/files/ComptrollerOfCurrencyLetter.pdf

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

May 5, 2018

Joseph M. Otting, Comptroller of the Currency
U.S. Treasury Department
400 7th Street, SW
Washington DC 20219

Dear Comptroller Otting:

Please let us bring to your attention financial risks to major banks involving their possibly unreported exposure to derivatives in the monetary metals markets.

In recent months gold and silver future contracts issued by U.S. banks on the New York Commodities Exchange have been moved off-exchange for delivery through a mechanism known as “exchange for physical” (EFP) contracts. Until recently use of this mechanism was considered an emergency procedure when a seller did not have access to metal for delivery through Comex warehouses. Now the mechanism seems to be in use for a large share of front-month contracts for which delivery is sought.

Here is an example that is happening at the Comex in the front active month of April for gold and the inactive delivery month of April for silver.

In gold, there were 229,436 EFP contracts for 713.64 tonnes, an average of 10,925 contracts and 1,092,500 ounces per trading day.

In silver, there were 77,150 EFP contracts for 385,750,000 ounces, an average of 3,673 contracts and 18,369,000 ounces per trading day.

London Bullion Market Association rules suggest that these contracts may not be reported to regulators. The LBMA’s bylaws say:

“Figures above exclude any contracts not subject to risk-based capital requirements, such as FX contracts with an original maturity of 14 days or less, futures contracts, written options, and basis swaps. Therefore, the total notional amount of derivatives by maturity will not add to the total derivatives figure in this table.”

We are told that these EFP contracts are transferred from the Comex to London as what are called “serial forwards” and their duration is always less than 14 days, which exempts them from being reported.

It is our understanding that in each quarter your office prepares a report detailing risk undertaken by the banks under the comptroller’s supervision.

These risks include derivatives undertaken by U.S. banks and other obligations that may cause a bank to fail. Our concern is that your office may not be aware of large unreported derivative exposure by banks.

Could you review this matter and let us know your conclusions?

Sincerely,

CHRIS POWELL
Secretary/Treasurer

HARVEY ORGAN
Consultant

Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
7 Villa Louisa Road
Manchester, Connecticut 06043-7541

end

Finally, they replied and it was a complete brush off

(courtesy zerohedge)

Currency comptroller brushes off GATA’s inquiry on gold, silver EFPs

 Section: 

11:35a ET Friday, August 10, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The U.S. comptroller of the currency, a bank regulator, has declined GATA’s request to inquire into the strange explosion of the use of the emergency procedure of “exchange for physicals” in the settlement by banks of the gold and silver futures contracts they have sold on the New York Commodities Exchange.

Your secretary/treasurer and GATA’s consultant about the Comex, Harvey Organ, wrote to the comptroller, James M. Otting, on May 5, calling attention to the recent enormous use of EFPs, which implies derivatives risks being undertaken by U.S. banks that could cause the banks to fail:

http://www.gata.org/node/18303

“Our concern is that your office may not be aware of large unreported derivative exposure by banks,” GATA wrote.

As months passed without any acknowledgment from the comptroller’s office, your secretary/treasurer appealed to his U.S. representative, John B. Larson, D-Connecticut, to ask the comptroller’s office to reply. The congressman’s office made a second inquiry on Monday this week and today the comptroller’s office provided Larson with a copy of a reply written and mailed Wednesday.

The comptroller’s reply, signed by the deputy comptroller for public affairs, Bryan Hubbard, said only that the comptroller’s office has “dedicated examiners” at the largest banks who “continuously evaluate the credit, market, operational, reputation, and compliance risks of bank trading and derivative activities.”

The reply did not say anything about the use of the “exchange for physicals” procedure for settling futures contracts. That is, the reply was a begrudged brushoff and GATA’s letter would have been ignored completely if not for Representative Larson’s repeated intervention.

Of course GATA hardly expected a conscientious reply to its letter, the comptroller’s office being not an independent regulator but part of the Treasury Department, whose mandate includes administration of the Gold Reserve Act of 1934, which, as amended in the 1970s, authorizes the department’s Exchange Stabilization Fund to secretly intervene in and rig any market in the world, directly or through intermediaries:

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/international/ESF/Pages/esf-ind…

But there’s always value in demonstrating government’s lack of candor about what it is doing, especially in regard to the monetary metals.

A PDF copy of the reply from the comptroller’s office is posted at GATA’s internet site here:

http://www.gata.org/files/ComptrollerOfCurrencyReply-08-08-2018.pdf

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Unbelievable!! Scotia Macotta admits rigging of gold and silver on their own

(courtesy GATA/Goldstein/Market Watch)

Key metals player Bank of Nova Scotia admits

rigging gold and silver futures

 Section: 

11:09a ET Tuesday, October 2, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Few players in the gold and silver markets are bigger than the Bank of Nova Scotia, whose metals trading division, Scotia Mocatta, is world-renowned. The Bank of Nova Scotia is a member of the London Bullion Market Association and has had a seat at the daily London gold price fixing.

And this week the bank admitted to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission that its traders manipulated the gold and silver futures markets through “spoofing” from June 2013 through June 2016.Rory Hall of The Daily Coin, who brought the CFTC’s action to GATA’s attention today, notes that the developed has been grossly underreported:

https://thedailycoin.org/2018/10/02/another-bank-fined-for-rigging-the-g…

Indeed, at this hour your secretary/treasurer can find only one news story about it, from Marketwatch, which is very brief:

* * *

Bank of Nova Scotia Charged with Spoofing in Gold, Silver Futures

By Steve Goldstein
MarketWatch, New York
Monday, October 1, 2018

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bank-of-nova-scotia-charged-by-cftc-wi…

The Bank of Nova Scotia was charged by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission with multiple acts of spoofing in gold and silver futures between June 2013 and June 2016. Traders placed orders to buy or sell precious metals futures contracts with the intent to cancel the orders before execution, the CFTC said.

The CFTC fine was $800,000, as the CFTC said the penalty was substantially reduced because the bank reported the conduct to the agency.

* * *

Far from criticizing the bank, the CFTC’s announcement yesterday about the misconduct actually praises the bank for having reported the misconduct itself:

https://cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/7818-18

The CFTC’s enforcement director, James McDonald, says:

“This case is another great example of the significant benefits of self-reporting and cooperation. We expect market participants to take proactive steps to prevent this sort of misconduct before it starts. But, as this case shows, there is a strong incentive for market participants to quickly and voluntarily report wrongdoing when it is discovered and cooperate with our investigation, as the Bank of Nova Scotia did here. In recognition of its self-reporting and cooperation, the commission imposed a substantially-reduced penalty.”

* * *

Wikipedia notes Scotia Mocatta’s key position in the monetary metals markets throughout history:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ScotiaMocatta

“The Mocatta firm has historically acted for central banks, notably the Bank of England and the United States Treasury in market stabilizations, notably the 1913 run on the Indian Specie Bank and the 1980 attempt by the Hunt brothers to corner the silver market.”

Of course spoofing the monetary metals futures markets might be considered a mechanism of “stabilization” as well.

In any case market rigging now has been acknowledged to have been perpetrated at the very center of the international gold and silver business.

Not that anyone but the tireless researcher of silver market rigging, Ted Butler, will catch the significance of the dates in yesterday’s announcement from the CFTC, but the regulatory agency closed without result its long-running investigation of silver market rigging in September 2013. That is, the CFTC closed its investigation of silver market rigging three months after the Bank of Nova Scotia’s rigging of gold and silver futures began.

Maybe the CFTC’s chronic blindness to the rigging of the monetary metals markets gave the bank the impression that they were fair game.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

Eric Sprott, is very angry at gold forecasters due to the continued whacking of paper gold and paper silver

(courtesy GATA/stockhead.com)

In Perth, Eric Sprott scorns gold forecasters

and paper gold and silver

 Section: 

‘No Friggin’ Idea’: Billionaire Investor Eric Sprott Doesn’t Hold Back on Gold Forecasters

By Angela East
Stockhead.com.au, Sydney, Australia
Friday, October 5, 2018

PERTH, Australia — Eric Sprott knows just a bit about how to make money in mining, so when the Canadian billionaire investor gets up to address a crowd people listen.

It was no different when Mr Sprott took the stage on the second day of the Precious Metals Investment in Symposium in Perth to provide his thoughts on the gold space.The 73-year-old — described by Bloomberg as “one of the world’s premiere gold and silver investors” — kicked off an hour-long presentation by expressing his disgust at the underwhelming forecasts for gold. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://stockhead.com.au/resources/words-of-wisdom-from-canadian-billion…

* * *

end

 

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP TO 6.8689/HUGE DEVALUATION FOR THE PAST FOUR WEEKS STOPS/CHINESE COMING TO USA FOR TRADE TALKS IN NOVEMBER CANCELLED //OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.8841   /shanghai bourse CLOSED HOLIDAY

. HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 51.30 POINTS OR 0.19%

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 191.90 POINTS OR 0.80%/USA: YEN RISES TO 113.71/

3. Europe stocks OPENED  IN THE RED 

 

 

/USA dollar index RISES TO 95.58/Euro RISES TO 1.1526

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. +.15/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 113.71/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 74.23 and Brent: 84.74

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN/ CHINESE YUAN:   ON SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.55%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 3.40% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.57%

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 4.51

3k Gold at $1204.40 silver at:14.67   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 34/100 in roubles/dollar) 66.58

3m oil into the 74 dollar handle for WTI and 84 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 113.71DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9881 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1397 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to +0.55%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 3.21% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.37%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 6.1255

Global Stocks Slide, Asian Techs Hammered As

Rate Rout Continues

Traders were greeted with another sea of red from overnight equity markets, and even as Thursday’s vicious rout slowed ahead of today’s all important jobs report, Asian tech stocks were hammered following Bloomberg’s report that Beijing had hacked American computer networks using a microchip built by its spies.

“Stocks are firmly in the red as investors are worried about rising U.S. government bond yields, emerging-market economies, and Italy’s political situation,” said David Madden, market analyst at CMC Markets. To that he can also now add the tech rout amid Asian stocks following yesterday’s Bloomberg spying report.

Markets remain on edge about the sharp jump in US and global interest rates, although after the surge earlier this week US 10Y Treasury yields have remained relatively flat for the second consecutive day. Benchmark U.S. Treasury yields were at a seven-year top and on their way to their biggest weekly yield rise since February while European yields were adding to their biggest rise in months as well.

And with talk of plenty more U.S. interest rate hikes growing louder, it put all the more focus on the U.S. jobs data later. Eaton Vance portfolio manager Justin Bourgette said though there was too much hype around the payrolls figures, whichever way you approach it, the U.S. labor market is currently super strong. The latest Bloomberg consensus sees 185,000 new jobs and average hourly earnings increasing 0.3 percent in September after leaping 0.4 percent in August.

“Whatever the Fed’s concept of the neutral interest rate is, it must be rising,” Bourgette said. “And it is going to be trial and error to some degree (on how high rates go), because you just don’t know where the choking point is.”

Looking at today’s jobs report, DB’s Jim Reid said it best:

Given the rout in markets that started with Treasuries on Wednesday and has since reverberated throughout risk assets over the last 24 hours you’d be hard-pressed to find a more conveniently timed payrolls Friday than today. Indeed, with 10y Treasury yields up nearly 13bps from Friday’s close to 3.191% as of this morning, the S&P 500 (-0.82%) and NASDAQ (-1.81%) falling by the most since June 25th yesterday with FANG stocks (-2.89%) at the heart of it, the VIX (+2.61pts to 14.22) at one stage surging past 15 again yesterday, EM currencies lower across the board and EM equities (-2.38%) down by the most since  February yesterday, the stakes have certainly been raised.

The sell-off in Treasuries led to contagion in Europe, where Germany’s 30-year security is poised for its biggest one-week yield increase since April and the 10Y Bund yield rose to 5 month highs, while Italian bonds slipped, as GDP forecasts failed to convince investors the country will be able to meet fiscal targets.

An interesting observation by Bloomberg, is that unlike in the US where higher yields have traditionally helped bank stocks, in Europe there has been a notable and concerning decoupling between the 10Y Bund yield and bank stocks. If not even a steepening in the yield curve can help Europe’s bank stocks, then Mario Draghi may be fresh out of luck.

Stocks in Europe followed Asia into the red rounding out a tough week in which a rout in technology shares roiled Asian equity markets while the stronger dollar, which slammed emerging markets, resumed rising ahead of the September payrolls report.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 index fell, led lower by miners as metal prices fell, while tech and banking shares also slipped. Lingering worries about Italy’s finances and an overoptimistic budget proposal pushed Milan down 0.9% making it the worst performer among major European markets on Friday. Deutsche Bank said the government’s budget plan, including growth of 1.5%, 1.6%, and 1.4% over the next three years, “is much more optimistic than forecasts from DB’s economists, the Bank of Italy, the ECB, the IMF, or the private sector consensus.”

London’s FTSE, Frankfurt’s DAX and the CAC in Paris were off 0.6-0.8% and Wall Street futures were modestly weaker. Danske Bank A/S headed for the biggest drop in seven years after Denmark’s regulator said it should hold more capital to prepare for potential fines.

Earlier, benchmark stock indexes fell across Asia, led by tech stocks with the MSCI AC Asia Pacific Infotech Index dropping to the lowest since July 2017. Taiwan’s Taiex index fell 1.9% in Taipei for its lowest close since May. The broader MSCI Asia Pacific Index headed for its worst week since March.

Tech stocks led declines after Bloomberg reported that China infiltrated U.S. companies with hardware hacks. The story came the same day Vice President Mike Pence criticized China across economic, commercial and diplomatic fronts in a keynote speech. As a result, Chinese PC maker Lenovo Group plunged as much as 23% in Hong Kong, its biggest loss in almost a decade before paring some of its decline by the close on Friday. In a statement, Lenovo said Super Micro Computer Inc., the company at the center of the hacking chip investigation, is “not a supplier to Lenovo in any capacity” and the company will take steps to protect the ongoing integrity of its supply chain, however that was not enough for traders who sold first and asked questions later.

In a note to clients, JPMorgan recommended shorting Lenovo with a six-month time horizon given the company’s PC and server sales to the U.S. “Whilst Lenovo isn’t directly implicated in the expose, it is hard not to see U.S. slow down their procurement of servers near term,” the note said and added that investors may also consider shorting Taiwanese computer companies including Quanta Computer, Inventec, Wiwynn and Wistron Corp which gets about 20% of its enterprise server business from Super Micro.

Other semiconductor names were similarly crushed: ZTE, a Chinese communications-gear maker that’s been hit by American sanctions, fell 11% in Hong Kong, the most since June. Walsin Technology, the top emerging-market stock through the first half of the year before becoming the worst since mid-July, dropped 9.9% in Taiwan. Taiwan lens maker Largan Precision, an Apple supplier, fell 7.3%. Realtek Semiconductor was down 8.3% to a July low.

“Electronics produced in China may be viewed unsafe due to this news, and tech shares are falling in general because of that,” Ray K W Kwok, an analyst at CGS-CIMB Securities Hong Kong Ltd., said of the Bloomberg story.

Losses in Asia followed Thursday declines in the U.S. where the Nasdaq saw its worst one-day drop since June, as Amazon and Apple – companies named as being affected by the China hack – dropped at least 1.8%.  The tech rout has added to the pain suffered by Asian stocks which have so far taken the brunt of the US-China trade war.

The tech rout was the latest blow for global stocks in a week that saw 10-year U.S. Treasury yields climb to to seven-year highs, reducing demand for riskier assets. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stoked the rates surge when he said the central bank could eventually boost its benchmark “past the neutral level“, after data that underscored the strength of the U.S. economy. Investors’ focus is now squarely on Friday’s monthly U.S. payrolls report for further clues on the policy outlook.

The painful combination of rising oil prices, higher interest rates and a climbing dollar have also been rocking emerging markets which tend to be vulnerable to all three. MSCI’s 24-country emerging market equity index was down 0.7 percent and headed for its worst week since February and plenty of currencies were carrying heavy losses too. The slump in Chinese tech stocks, Indian refiners and South African blue chips led to the fifth loss in six days for emerging-market equities, sending them toward the worst week in eight months.

Earlier on Friday, India’s rupee feel to a new record low and bonds rallied after the country’s central bank unexpectedly kept its policy rate unchanged. The country’s Sensex benchmark stock index slumped 2.3%, the most since February, taking its slide from an August high to 12%, falling for a third straight session, dragged down by energy firms one day after the government announced a cut in fuel prices.

In the latest Brexit news, former UK Foreign Minister Boris Johnson welcomed EU Council President Tusk’s offer of a Canada type deal, he added it shows there is a “superb” way forward. Separately, EU Diplomatic Sources says that a divorce deal on Brexit is “very close” with Britain according to Reuters. However, Irish Foreign Minister Coveney says it is “hard to know” if the backstop proposal would work.

Elsewhere, Brent crude futures gained 0.5 percent to $85.03 barrel, and U.S. crude rose 0.7 percent to $74.88 barrel. That kept both just under 4-year highs. They have also risen an staggering 15-20 percent since mid-August. “Iranian exports could fall below 1 million barrels per day in November,” U.S. bank Jefferies said, referring to looming U.S. sanctions on Tehran. The investment bank said there was enough oil to meet demand, but “global spare capacity is dwindling to the lowest level that we can document … meaning any further supply disruptions would be difficult for the market to manage – and could lead to spiking crude oil prices”.

Today’s expected data include trade balance, non-farm payrolls, and unemployment. No major companies are reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 2,904.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.6% to 377.50
  • MXAP down 0.6% to 159.80
  • MXAPJ down 0.7% to 501.90
  • Nikkei down 0.8% to 23,783.72
  • Topix down 0.5% to 1,792.65
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.2% to 26,572.57
  • Shanghai Composite up 1.1% to 2,821.35
  • Sensex down 1.1% to 34,781.80
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 6,185.49
  • Kospi down 0.3% to 2,267.52
  • German 10Y yield rose 2.7 bps to 0.558%
  • Euro down 0.2% to $1.1494
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 1.5 bps to 2.959%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.9 bps to 1.572%
  • Brent futures up 0.3% to $84.81/bbl
  • Gold spot little changed at $1,199.98
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 95.88

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The U.S. Senate is closing in on sending Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, which would seal a conservative majority and close a bitterly fought confirmation process that hinged on allegations of sexual misconduct. The Senate on Friday morning will take a procedural vote that will determine if he has enough support for approval
  • European Central Bank President Mario Draghi met with Italian President Sergio Mattarella on Wednesday and may have discussed the country’s budget and bond spreads in the context of the winding down of the ECB’s QE program, La Stampa reported
  • Britain’s International Trade Secretary said he will back an imperfect Brexit deal with the EU, on the basis it can be revised and improved after the U.K. has left the bloc
  • India’s central bank kept interest rates unchanged in a surprise decision, opting to assess the impact of previous increases and contain the fallout of defaults from a systemically important lender. Indian bonds rallied
  • Oil dropped from the highest price in almost four year amid signs of a growing crude surplus in the world’s biggest economy. An additional 1.7 million barrels of oil were stowed in tanks at a key U.S. pipeline hub in Oklahoma in the five days to Oct. 2, data provider Genscape Inc. was said to have reported
  • The controversial budget plans of Italy’s populist government are hanging on an economic premise that looks too optimistic. It sees growth of 1.5 percent in 2019, followed 1.6 percent and 1.4 percent in subsequent years. By comparison, the median in Bloomberg’s latest survey is for expansion of no more 1.2 percent
  • The Trump administration warned that too much of the U.S. defense industry is dependent on China or vulnerable to hacking directed by Beijing, part of a mounting campaign to pressure the Chinese government
  • Japan’s base pay and household spending both rose by the most in years in August, adding to signs that consumers are beginning to feel the nation’s economic recovery
  • For investors in the curve-steepener trade, the updraft in Treasury yields of the past 48 hours is more than just a welcome reprieve — it also signals a long-awaited regime shift

Asia-Pac stocks are traded mixed following a negative lead from Wall St. where tech names led the sell-off amid US-China trade concerns and as the US 10-year yield hit the highest since 2011. ASX 200 (+0.2%) bucked the trend and recuperated initial losses as financial and precious metal names supported the index, while Nikkei 225 (-0.8%) was subdued due to a recovery in the currency and weakness in tech names. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (-0.2%) struggled after opening in bear-market territory as a result of US headwinds and weakness in the energy sector, while tech names also sold off following reports that U.S. tech companies’ systems had been infiltrated by malicious chips inserted by Chinese intelligence agents. Meanwhile, mainland China remained closed due to the Golden Week holiday.

Top Asian News

  • Hong Kong Stocks Signal Pain for World’s Priciest Properties
  • IMF Says Pakistan Policies Not Enough to Stabilize Economy

European equities are down again, with traders mindful of Italian updates, the current yield environment, US-China trade tensions and the upcoming US job report. Comments from EU sources that a divorce deal for Britain is close has lifted the GBP and pressured the FTSE 100 into negative territory. The IT sector is underperforming amidst the technology supply line infiltration, and comments from Trump that he thinks China is not ready to make a deal creating additional strain on US-China relations. INTU Properties are up by over 28% following murmurs of privatisation led by a consortium including their deputy chairman. Danske Bank are at the bottom of the Stoxx 600 following yesterday’s share buyback discontinuation and being downgraded today to Neutral at Credit Suisse.

Top European News

  • Ryanair Calls Off Talks With German Cabin Crew Union
  • Rallye Repays Bondholders as Questions Loom About New Loan
  • Brexit Financial-Market Threat Leads EU Watchdogs to Step Up
  • U.K. Inflation Hawks May Be Missing the Big Picture on Brexit

In FX, GBP extended gains above the 1.3000 mark, and briefly through some stops at the next psychological level around 1.3050 on the back of more constructive Brexit news in the form of EU diplomatic sources suggesting a UK divorce agreement is ‘very close’. Eur/Gbp breached its 200 DMA circa 0.8840 in response and tested bids below 0.8820 before the Pound broadly ran out of steam. JPY was the other relative G10 outperformer, albeit marginal in the pre-NFP amble, as the headline pair remains hemmed in either side of 114.00, but some way above decent support and option expiry interest at the 113.50 strike where 1.1 bn runs off at the NY cut. EUR/CAD – Also softer vs the Greenback, with the single currency unable to sustain momentum on advances beyond 1.1500 and technically weak while under 1.1550 and a 1.1546 Fib, while the Loonie remains contained within a 1.2915-40 range vs its US counterpart awaiting Canadian jobs data due at the same time as NFP. EM – Some consolidation after widespread depreciation vs the Dollar for the most part this week, but not for the Inr that hit fresh all time lows following the RBI’s decision to stand pat on rates against consensus for a 25 bp hike, although it did switch policy stance to ‘calibrated’ tightening from neutral. Elsewhere, more intervention from the Indonesian Central Bank, while the Real may see some upside ahead of Sunday’s Brazilian election after the latest poll put Bolsonaro a bit further ahead of his main rival.

In commodities, the oil market is uneventful heading into the weekend with trade tentative ahead of the US labour market data later in the day, and the fossil fuel essentially flat for the day. The crude complex is set for its fourth consecutive weekly gain, as supply-driven gains have pushed the commodity to 4 year highs this week. The latest plats survey revealed OPEC compliance stands at 110% in September for members with quotas, alongside stating that Saudi output rose by 100k BPD, and that they have exceeded their targeted 1mln BPD increase. In metals markets, gold is also essentially unchanged as traders hold off ahead of a US jobs report that could tempt the Fed to implement a tighter monetary policy should signs of wage growth be seen.  Aluminium is also steady, with the construction material set for its biggest weekly rise since April as supply concerns have lifted prices.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Trade Balance, est. $53.6b deficit, prior $50.1b deficit
  • 8:30am: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 185,000, prior 201,000
    • Unemployment Rate, est. 3.8%, prior 3.9%
    • Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.4%
    • Average Hourly Earnings YoY, est. 2.8%, prior 2.9%
    • Average Weekly Hours All Employees, est. 34.5, prior 34.5
  • 12:30pm: Fed’s Kaplan Speaks in Waco
  • 12:40pm: Fed’s Bostic Speaks at Financial Literacy Conference
  • 3pm: Consumer Credit, est. $15.0b, prior $16.6b

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Given the rout in markets that started with Treasuries on Wednesday and has since reverberated throughout risk assets over the last 24 hours you’d be hard-pressed to find a more conveniently timed payrolls Friday than today. Indeed, with 10y Treasury yields up nearly 13bps from Friday’s close to 3.191% as of this morning, the S&P 500 (-0.82%) and NASDAQ (-1.81%) falling by the most since June 25th yesterday with FANG stocks (-2.89%) at the heart of it, the VIX (+2.61pts to 14.22) at one stage surging past 15 again yesterday, EM currencies lower across the board and EM equities (-2.38%) down by the most since  February yesterday, the stakes have certainly been raised.

Indeed, it’s definitely one of the more anticipated employment reports this year and the consensus for payrolls today is for a 185k reading for September which follows that stronger than expected 201k in August. Average hourly earnings are expected to print at +0.3% mom, however base effects are expected to result in a one-tenth of a percent fall for the yearly figure to +2.8% yoy. With this week’s ADP (230k vs. 184k expected) and the employment components of both the manufacturing (58.8) and non-manufacturing (62.4) ISMs hitting seven-month and all-time highs, respectively, too this week, it certainly feels like the risk is to the upside. Indeed, our US economists yesterday revised up their payrolls forecast to 225k in light of the data, which in their view should push the unemployment rate down to 3.8%. Our colleagues also expect a +0.3% mom/+2.8% yoy earnings print but note the risk to the annual rate is a fall of two-tenths due to the base effects from last year’s September surge due to hurricane effects. However, earnings should rebound strongly in October as these base effects unwind.

Back in markets, one of the ironic takeaways from the moves yesterday was that Treasuries actually ended up little changed which seemed to partly be a function of the flight to quality bid in light of the moves for risk assets. Indeed, while the 10y did hit an intraday high of 3.231% early in the day – more than 18bps higher than the yield lows from Wednesday – it ended last night at 3.188% and +0.5bps on the day. 2y and 30y yields ended -0.4bps and +1.3bps respectively so it was at least a day of consolidation after breaking some key technical levels. Meanwhile, the DOW (-0.75%) and Russell 2000 (-1.46%) also joined the equity selloff along with the STOXX 600 (-1.08%) while the only sector which really benefited was Banks with the S&P 500 Banks index ending +0.80% and European Banks (+0.65%). EM FX (-0.58%) fell sharply for the second consecutive day while hard currency 10y yields in the likes of Brazil and Argentina finished +9.5bps and +36.9bps higher respectively. In Europe Bunds ended +5.6bps but in fairness were playing catch-up. Elsewhere in commodity markets WTI (-2.72%) and Brent (-1.98%) Oil tumbled yesterday while base metals were also hit hard (Aluminium -1.65%, Nickel -2.19%).

There’s no doubt that the Treasury move on Wednesday played its part in the selloff for risk assets especially with real yields also marching higher. However, the Bloomberg story which hit yesterday morning about China hacking 30 US companies including Amazon and Apple, and US Vice President Mike Pence saying that there “can be no doubt” that “China is meddling in America’s democracy” and specifically accusing the nation of a “whole-of-government approach” to sway US public opinion, also played just as big or had an even bigger impact on markets yesterday.

Overnight that risk off tone has continued into Asia however losses aren’t quite to the extent of those seen on Wall Street. The Nikkei (-0.71%), Hang Seng (-0.42%) and Kospi (-0.34%) are all in the red which puts those bourses down 1% to 4% this week alone. As a reminder, markets in China are still closed due to national holidays so it could be an interesting open on Monday given the moves this week. Meanwhile futures in the US are broadly flat along with bonds for the most part. Indeed, 10y JGBs are -0.6bps lower at 0.143% and 30y JGBs are -1.1bps lower at 0.934%. Notably there was no change to the BoJ’s outright bond purchase programme this morning and the moves also come following headlines yesterday on Reuters about the BoJ seen as “tolerating higher yields”.

In other news, yesterday there was some debate about an MNI article suggesting that the ECB might consider a “twist-like” operation of reinvestments of maturing debt next year. It’s worth noting that this isn’t the first time we’ve heard such a story  and the rationale is certainly nothing new insofar as the ECB may just consider potentially extending maturities with the same capital keys. There wasn’t a great deal of reaction in the market to the story with the euro up a fairly modest +0.31%.

Staying with Europe, Greek assets had another turbulent day yesterday with increasing concern about the country’s banks which feels all a bit déjà vu. Bloomberg ran a story yesterday suggesting that Greece was considering a proposal to help lenders offload bad loans into an SPV, which in turn would issue bonds backed by the state. After falling -8.78% on Wednesday Greek banks rallied back +8.31% yesterday however 5y and 10y Greek yields did rise +7.2bps and +8.8bps respectively.

On Italy, the news flow calmed a bit yesterday which was probably a relief given the volatility in markets elsewhere, though later in the evening we did get the government’s budget plans which include growth of 1.5%, 1.6%, and 1.4% over the next three years. This is much more optimistic than forecasts from DB’s economists, the Bank of Italy, the ECB, the IMF, or the private sector consensus Debt to GDP is also to be targeted at 130.0% in 2019, 128.1% in 2020 and 126.7% in 2021 while the deficit, as we already knew, was confirmed at 2.4% for next year, 2.1% in 2020 and 1.8% in 2021. It’ll be interesting to hear any comments from the European side today.

Elsewhere, yesterday’s data certainly had less of an impact on markets but it did support the consistent message of strong US growth. Initial jobless claims fell to 207,000 from 214,000, close to the 50-year low. August durable goods orders were revised 0.1pp lower to +4.4% mom, though upward revisions to July mostly offset this. August factory orders beat expectations by 0.2pp at +2.3% mom. For now, we maintain our third quarter GDP growth forecast at +3.3% saar.

Finally, while the day ahead will likely be dominated by the US employment report this afternoon, there are various other data releases to be aware of. This morning in Europe we’ve got August factory orders and PPI in Germany followed by the August trade balance reading for France. In the UK we’ll also get Q2 labour costs while in the US this evening we’ll get August consumer credit data. Away from that we’ve got central bank meetings due in India and Argentina while the ECB’s Luis de Guindos and Klaas Knot are due to speak, followed by  the Fed’s Robert Kaplan and Raphael Bostic this afternoon.

 

 

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i) FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED FOR A HOLIDAY

 

/Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 51.30 POINTS OR 0.19% //The Nikkei closed DOWN 135.34 POINTS OR 0.56%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.12%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.8689 AS POBC STOPS  ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER CANCELLED/Oil DOWN to 74.23 dollars per barrel for WTI and 84.74 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED//.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN AT 6.8686 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8689: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS STOPS// TRADE TALKS STOPPED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER  AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

North Korea/South Korea/USA/China

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

 
END

3C CHINA

Trump will not be happy with the latest release of trade data with China.  The deficit rose despite tariffs to an all time high of 53.2 billion dollars.

(courtesy zerohedge)

US Trade Deficit With China Hits New All Time

High

The August trade deficit – a closed watched number in a time of trade wars – came in at $53.2BN, fractionally better than the $53.6BN expected, but 6.4% worse than last month’s revised print of $50.0BN ($46.8BN excluding petroleum), and just shy of a new all time high.

The deficit deteriorated as a result of less exports (-0.8%) and more imports (+0.6%). Broken down, August exports were $209.4 billion, $1.7 billion less than July exports, while July imports were $262.7 billion, $1.6 billion more than July. August imports of goods (excluding services) of $215.6 billion were the highest on record

The August increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $3.6 billion to $76.7 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.4 billion to $23.5 billion. Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit increased $31.0 billion, or 8.6 percent, from the same period in 2017. Exports increased $129.6 billion or 8.4 percent. Imports increased $160.6 billion or 8.4 percent.

Some notable highlights from the report:

  • August exports of services ($70.5 billion) were the highest on record.
  • August imports of goods and services ($262.7 billion) were the highest on record.
  • August imports of goods ($215.6 billion) were the highest on record.

Digging into the numbers, even more records were revealed:

  • August imports of industrial supplies and materials ($49.7 billion) were the highest since December 2014 ($51.8 billion).
  • August imports of automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($31.7 billion) were the highest on record.
  • August imports of other goods ($9.1 billion) were the highest on record.
  • August petroleum imports ($20.5 billion) were the highest since December 2014 ($23.6 billion).

But what was most important is the geographic distribution of trade, and this is where Trump will be displeased because in July the trade deficit with both China ($36.8 billion)…

… and while the trade deficit with the EU rebounded from last month’s record high ($17.6 billion), to $15.7BN, the US also posted a record trade deficit with Mexico ($8.7BN) and Ireland ($4.3BN).

While this number will not have much of an impact on Q3 GDP, it could have a major impact on future trade because if Trump wanted one more “reason” to expand China’s tariffs to all Chinese imports, he just got it.

end

China is very angry with Vice President Pence’s latest speech stating that he is “fanning fires” and escalating tensions

(courtesy zerohedge)

China Slams Pence For “Fanning Fires” And

“Escalating Tensions” After Aggressive Speech

One day after US Vice President Mike Pence all but declared China to be the US’s new “enemy No. 1”, a status previously enjoyed by Russia and its president, during a speech at the Hudson Institute that outlined allegations of Chinese election-hacking, while blasting President Xi Jinping and the Communist Party for illegally asserting territorial dominance over the South China Sea and Taiwan (while at the same time promising that the US will impose its military will across the Indo-Pacific), the Chinese Foreign Ministry has issued a statement warning the US to stop “fanning fires” and “escalating tensions” between the world’s two largest economies, claiming that the US has no right to “irresponsibly” question the One China Policy that has long labeled Taiwan as an inalienable part of China, according to Bloomberg. 

China

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi

The ministry insisted that building necessary defense facilities has nothing to do with militarization, that China attaches “high importance” to safeguarding human rights and that “all ethnic groups have freedom of religion” – a claim that runs contrary to the deluge of reporting by US media outlets regarding China’s repression of its ethnic Uyghur minority. Instead of lobbing accusations at China, the US should “focus on its own domestic human rights issues instead of interfering with China’s internal affairs.” 

Pence sought to expand on President Trump accusations, made before the UN Security Council last week, that China had been trying to undermine Republicans by interfering in US elections. While neither Trump nor Pence cited any evidence to justify their claims, Pence said China’s election-hacking efforts were “sophisticated” and vowed to expose Beijing’s “malign influence and interference.”

Here’s more on Pence’s speech from Reuters:

Pence said Beijing, with an eye not only to the congressional elections but also to Trump’s 2020 re-election bid, had “mobilized covert actors, front groups, and propaganda outlets to shift Americans’ perception of Chinese policies” and was targeting its tariffs to hurt states where Trump has strong support.

“China wants a different American president,” Pence said.

Shortly before Pence took the stag (but hours after excerpts of his expected remarks had been released) Bloomberg Businessweek published an explosive report on a top-secret multiyear US investigation into China’s successful infiltration of hardware used by 30 US companies – including Apple and Amazon – and the US intelligence and defense industries.

China and the US have blamed one another for the cancellation of a planned security conference that was expected to involve high ranking officials from both countries. And with the US still planning to expand its tariffs to cover virtually all the Chinese goods flowing into the US market, and China recently partaking in a massive joint military exercise with Russia, the deterioration in the relationship between the US and China has been nothing short of alarming.

end

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

ITALY 

Italy’s government loses credibility with its budget submitted to Brussels.  Salvini blasts Juncker after EU mock the Italian budget

(courtesy zerohedge)

Italian Rout Returns As Salvini Blasts Juncker,

Moscovici After Europe Mocks Budget

The selloff across Italian assets returned on Friday, with stocks and bonds sliding as traders had a chance to go over the additional budget details released on Thursday evening and consensus quickly forming that the controversial budget plans of Italy’s populist government are hanging on an economic premise that looks too optimistic.

Italy’s GDP projections now include growth of 1.5%, 1.6%, and 1.4% over the next three years. By comparison, the median in Bloomberg’s latest survey is for expansion of no more than 1.2 percent. According to Deutsche Bank, “this is much more optimistic than forecasts from DB’s economists, the Bank of Italy, the ECB, the IMF, or the private sector consensus.” Rome also said that with the current legislation, GDP growth would be 1.2% for 2018.

Debt to GDP is also to be targeted at 130.0% in 2019, 128.1% in 2020 and 126.7% in 2021 while the deficit, as we already knew, was confirmed at 2.4% for next year, 2.1% in 2020 and 1.8% in 2021.

The “growth targets are ambitious, but not unrealistic and could be exceeded for at least two reasons,” Finance Minister Giovanni Tria said in the foreword to the report including the new estimates and targets. The finance chief mentioned the impact of planned investments and the elimination of legal and bureaucratic obstacles to their full implementation as well as a gradual reduction of public debt financing costs after tensions on financial markets subside.

“Whilst government forecasts always fall on the optimistic side, this particular assumption hints at significant fiscal slippage risk ahead in case of an economic slowdown,” said Axel Botte, a strategist at Ostrum Asset Management.

La Stampa also reported that ECB’s Draghi met with Italy President Mattarella on Wednesday, and may have warned about the budget and discussed the government “undervaluation” of effect on market. Draghi is also said to have warned about the trend of the Italian bond spread in the context of the winding down of the ECB’s quantitative-easing program.

In any case, with Italy’s highly unrealistic budget now public, traders resumed selling Italian stocks on fears it will be summarily rejected by Europe, and the FTSE MIB benchmark index dropped over 1%, the worst performer among major European markets on Friday.

Meanwhile, Italian BTPs breached yesterday’s worst levels after Ansa reported that Deputy Premier and Interior Minister Matteo Salvini blasted European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and Economic Affairs Commissioner Pierre Moscovici after they criticised the Italian government’s budget plans.

“The EU said yes to (past) budgets that impoverished Italy and made its situation precarious,” Salvini told a fair staged by agriculture association Coldiretti in Rome. “So I don’t get up in the morning thinking about the judgement that people like Juncker and Moscovici, who have ruined Europe and Italy, have of the government and of Italy.”

“They can say what they want. We’ll keep going straight on with peace of mind”.

On Wednesday, Salvini said that debt will decline “because more people will go back to work.” But short-term fiscal stimulus won’t solve longer-term issues that have left Italy as the slowest-growing economy in the euro area.

“The reality is that Italy’s problems are not about whether it meets its budget deficit next year or the year after,” Talib Sheikh of Jupiter Asset Management told Bloomberg Television. “It’s about can they undergo some deep-seated structural change. Italy’s ultimate problem is a lack of structural growth and it’s not clear to me that many of the populist agendas make any step toward that.”

The renewed war of words between Italy and Brussels after a few days of detente, is not what the market wanted to see, and the result was a prompt selloff in Italian bonds, with the 10Y yield rising as high as 3.422%, just shy of Wednesday’s highs which were the highest going back to early 2014. The drop was led by the front end, with 2y yields climbing as much as 21bps to 1.42% as the Italian budget crisis is nowhere close to getting resolved.

end
This is trouble.  Denmark’s largest bank, Danske bank plummets due to the huge problems with their wholly owned bank in Estonia.  They have a huge money laundering scandal to deal with
(courtesy zerohedge)

Danske Bank Shares Plummet As More Details

On $234 Billion Money Laundering Scandal

Emerge

Shares of Danske bank tumbled on Friday, adding to an already sizable decline so far this year, following a Financial Times report which revealed that the bank – which has become embroiled in one of the largest money laundering scandals in European history – also executed “mirror trades” for Russian clients, raising the possibility that the bank is facing even more serious fines and sanctions.

Danske Bank executed up to €8.5 billion ($9.8 billion) in mirror trades for Russian customers in a single year, according to an internal memo cited by the FT. The memo raises “new insight into the scale and tactics behind its €200 billion money-laundering scandal.” Deutsche Bank’s Moscow desk also used mirror trades – wherein the same party takes both sides of a trade, selling in rubles then buying in dollars – to help criminals move money out of Russia, an activity for which it was fined more than $600 million. The bank earned some 10 million euros from the trades, it said.

Danske

Danske is already facing investigations in six countries, including the US, where the DOJ is investigating revelations of rampant money laundering through Danske’s Estonian branch, which handled capital flows from non-resident clients that amount to multiples of the tiny Baltic nation’s GDP.

The Danske memo, seen by the FT, estimated that Danske made €10m in 2013 from the mirror trades, which used Russian government bonds to allow customers to make international payments in a “faster, cheaper and more reliable way.”

“There is potential reputational risk in being seen to be assisting ‘capital flight’ from Russia,” the memo said, before adding: “This is anyway a risk we run in other parts of our non-resident business, where the natural currency flow is always out of Russia. [ . . .] Given the strong income from the solution, the risk-return is seen as very attractive.”

Shares plunged 10% after the FT report to trade at their lowest level since 2014. And reports of a price-target downgrade from Credit Suisse certainly didn’t help, as Reuters pointed out. CS cut the target to 199 Danish crowns ($30) from 244 crowns ($37).

“The investment case and key reason for buying Danske and taking anti-money-laundering risk is gone as buybacks no longer support shares,” Credit Suisse said.

In an internal audit released last month, Danske revealed that upwards of $235 billion that flowed through the bank between 2008 and 2015 should be considered “suspect.” CEO Thomas Borgen, who ran the bank’s international division while the illict activity was taking place and pushed the bank to look the other way, has promised to resign as a result.

Danske

Meanwhile, Bloomberg reported that Danske Bank’s interim CFO Morten Mosegaard assured investors in an interview that there’s no risk of Danske being cut off from the US banking system as punishment for the banking scandal. But of course there’s no way for Mosegaard to know for certain what the response from US authorities might be.

To be sure, the problem of money laundering in the Baltics isn’t limited to Danske’s Estonian operation. According to data from Estonia’s central bank, as much as $1 trillion in non-resident money flowing through Estonian banks during that period should be considered suspect.

But Russian criminals and oligarchs who relied on these regulator loopholes can breath a sigh of relief. Because, as one compliance expert told Bloomberg, the Baltics aren’t alone in having shoddy money laundering controls. Indeed, it’s a European-wide problem.

“I’ve worked on AML in the Baltic states, and I haven’t seen anything worse there than I’ve seen elsewhere.”

In other words, while Danske Bank is in the hot seat today, the game of regulatory whack-a-mole continues…

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

end

 

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

GERMANY/BRAZIL

Auto production and sales are plunging in both Germany and Brazil

Auto Production And Sales Plunge In

Germany, Brazil

Following the recent dreadful auto sales numbers out of the United States, both Germany and Brazil have posted extremely weak auto production and sales numbers, prompting more questions about the state of the global economy.

According to JP Morgan, auto production in Germany has been surprisingly weak in recent months, with the prospects of a recovery delayed until “at least October.” This was unveiled with the German July Industrial Production data for July which was “a disappointment,” as manufacturing slumped 1.9%m/m and 6% annualized below 2Q18. Of this, automotive was the biggest weakness.

The shifting timing and pattern of holidays across the German states over the summer likely knocked the latest IP data around a lot, but this year the new emissions testing regime is adding a real drag. Since 1st September, all new cars need to be certified under the new testing regime, but some German producers appeared to have fallen far behind this deadline. Some car models have temporarily been removed from sales, while others have had to be modified to meet the new standards, resulting in reduced production levels to manage the changeover.

Meanwhile, according to more concurrent car production data from the German Automobile Association (VDA) which is now available for the month of September – and which counts the number of cars rolling out of factories – production has collapsed even further. An additional problem, is that the VDA data had already slumped in July (almost -20%m/m), while the IP data showed a fall of 6.7%m/m.

While the VDA may be overstating the weakness, it is also possible that IP has much further to fall, adding to concerns about Europe’s slowing economy.

Not to be outdone by the United States or Germany, Brazil also posted plunging numbers for September. Auto production in the country was down 23.5% in September M/M, according to Reuters, while sales were down 14.2% over the same period according to the National Automakers Association. Brazil has traditionally been one of the world’s five largest auto markets until the country’s recent economic downturn. Companies like General Motors, Ford and Chrysler all have major operational facilities in Brazil.

And then there is the US, where earlier this week we reported the latest surprisingly poor auto sales numbers for September.

Results from Ford, Honda, Nissan, Toyota and Fiat all tell the story of an industry that had a terrible month, with few silver linings. Three of these names posted double digit percentage declines in YOY sales and three of them missed analyst estimates.

Some details:

  • Ford posted an 11% drop, missing analyst estimates of 9.1%. The F-Series pickup line ended a 16-month streak of sales gains. Mustang sales were down 1.3%.
  • Nissan posted a 12.2% drop in September. Nissan and Infiniti brand car sales fell by 36%, including a 28% drop for the Altima sedan as the company prepared to start selling an all-new version this week.
  • Toyota sales were down 10.4%, far below estimates of 6.7% for the month. Combined sales for Toyota and Lexus brand cars fell 25.3%.
  • Fiat posted the only true “beat”, as sales rose 15% versus analyst estimates of 8%. However, the Chrysler brand fell 7% to 14,683 vehicles and the Fiat brand fell 46% to 1,185 vehicles. The deficit was made up on Jeep sales, which were up 14%, as well as sales of Ram pickups and minivans.
  • Volkswagen of America car sales were down 4.8%
  • GM third quarter total sales were down 11%. The company stopped reporting monthly numbers earlier this year, with many suspecting that weakness in the production pipeline is responsible; they were right.

As discussed previously, the lack of auto incentives was the primary driver for the poor US auto numbers, prompting the question: absent carmaker subsidies, just how strong is the US auto market in particular, and the overall economy in general.

 

 

end

7  OIL ISSUES 

8. EMERGING MARKETS

SOUTH AFRICA

 

 

end

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00 am

Euro/USA 1.1530 UP .0013 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES  IN THE  RED 

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 113.71  UP 0.185  (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL

GBP/USA 1.3079 UP   0.0057  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.2929  UP .0009 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 13 basis point, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1526; / Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED FOR A HOLIDAY

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 51.30 POINTS OR 0.19%

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP  0.12% / EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL RED

 

The NIKKEI: this FRIDAY morning CLOSED DOWN 191.90 POINTS OR 0.80% 

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED ALL RED

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 51.30POINTS OR 0.19%

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED HOLIDAY

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.12%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 191.90 POINTS OR 0.80% 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1204.40

silver:$14.67

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 3.21% !!! UP 3 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

The 30 yr bond yield 3.37 UP 2  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 95.58 DOWN 17  CENT(S) from THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.94% UP 3    in basis point(s) yield from THURSDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.15%  DOWN 1  BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/EXTREMELY VOLATILE YESTERDAY…DANGEROUS!!

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.58% UP 5 IN basis point yield from THURSDAY/

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.42 UP 9   POINTS in basis point yield from THURSDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 184 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES UP TO +.57%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA XXXX

 

 

USA/Japan: XXXX down XXX basis points/

Great Britain/USA XXX DOWN .XXX( POUND DOWN XX BASIS POINTS)

USA/Canada XXX  Canadian dollarXXXBasis points AS OILXXX

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

This afternoon, the Euro was FELL BY XXX BASIS POINTS  to trade at XXX

The Yen rose to XXX for a gain of XX Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE

The POUND LOST XXXbasis points, trading at XXX/

The Canadian dollar GAINED XXX basis points to XXX WITH WTI RISING TO XXX

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY closed DOWN AT 6.8688-  ON SHORE  (YUAN UP)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.8827 (  YUAN DOWN)

TURKISH LIRA:  6.1330

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.15%   DOWN 1 BASIS POINT FROM YESTERDAY

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield up 4 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 3.23 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.40 up 5 in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 95.64 DOWN  12 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for THURSDAY: 1:00 PM 

London: CLOSED DOWN 99.80 POINTS OR 1.36%

German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 132.25 POINTS  OR 1.08%
Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 51.49 POINTS OR 0.95%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 60.60 POINTS OR 0.65%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN:  266.97 POINTS OR 1.30%/

 

 

WTI Oil price; 74.30 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 84.01 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    66.0  THE CROSS LOWER BY 31 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE higher by 31 BASIS PTS)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA:  6.1330 PER ONE USA DOLLAR.

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES +.57FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:$74.30

BRENT: $84.01

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.23%

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.40%/

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1515 ( DOWN 2 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:113.68 DOWN .221(YEN UP 22BASIS POINTS/ .

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 95.4 DOWN 12 cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.3105 UP 83 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 6.1330

the Russian rouble:  66.60 UP 0.31 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 31 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar: 1.2827 DOWN 7 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 6.8688  (ONSHORE)

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH):  6.8827 (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.57%

 

The Dow closed  DOWN  180.43 POINTS OR 0.68%

NASDAQ closed DOWN 91.06  points or 1.16% 4.00 PM EST


VOLATILITY INDEX:  14.82  CLOSED UP  .60

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.409%  .LIBOR  RATES ARE RISING/big jump today

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

 

Small Caps, Semis Smashed; Homebuilders

Hammered Amid Greatest Jobs Data In 49

Years

We suspect more than a few traders will be saying this tonight…

A big week…

  • Unemployment Rate at 49 year lows
  • US Stocks – worst 2-day drop since May
  • Small Caps, Nasdaq – biggest weekly drop in 7 months
  • Small Caps – biggest 5-week drop since Nov 2016
  • China (closed) ETF – biggest weekly drop in 7 months
  • Semis – biggest weekly drop in 6 months
  • FANGs – biggest weekly drop in 7 months
  • Homebuilders – worst.losing.streak.ever…
  • USD Index – best week in 2 months
  • HY Bonds – biggest weekly price drop in 8 months
  • IG Bonds – biggest weekly drop since Nov 2016
  • Treasury Yields – biggest weekly yield spike in 8 months
  • Yield Curve – biggest weekly steepening in 8 months
  • Gold – best weekly gain in 6 weeks

Chinese stocks were closed for Golden Week but the China ETF slumped…

European Stocks tumbled on the week…

 

US Small Caps stocks were the worst – though Nasdaq was close – suffering their biggest drop since March…Even The Dow gave up early week gains…

Small Caps – down 4 of the last 5 weeks (the biggest 5-week drop since Nov 2016 – Trump Election) – broke the most below their critical technical support 50DMA since May… but bounced off its 200DMA today…

 

 

The S&P bounced off its 50DMA…

The Dow-Small Caps divergence remains yuuge… (the last 5 weeks have been the biggest divergence since Sept 2011)

Semis slaughtered…

FANGs f##ked…

Banks bid but weak…

But homebuilders are getting hammered – down 13 days in a row…lowest since April 2017.

TSLA tumbled back into the red, giving up all those post-SEC gains…

VIX exploded above 17…

And the VIX curve inverted…

 

But GE had its best week since 2009!!

 

IG and HY bond prices plunged this week…

 

But while stocks caught a lot of eyes, bonds were really where the bloodbath hit…

Don’t forget Bonds are closed on Monday (Columbus Day)

Treasury volatility exploded from record lows this week…

 

Breaking bond yields to multi-year highs…

 

The yield curve exploded this week – steepening most since February…

 

The Dollar managed solid gains on the week but slipped in the latter half…

 

Cryptos ended mostly lower amid low volatility with only Ether managing very modest gains…

 

WTI and Gold managed gains on the week despite dollar strength as silver and copper slipped…

 

Gold managed to hold above $1200…and WTI above $74

 

Finally, as is increasingly occurring here, we give Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg the last words…

David Rosenberg@EconguyRosie

“There’s no reason to think that the probability of a recession in the next year or two is at all elevated” (Powell, Oct. 18); “The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession” (Bernanke, Jan. 2008); <1/3>

end

JOBS REPORT

The jobs report: a big miss but due to hurricanes especially in North Carolina.  Unemployment at 48 year low due to a big increase in the participation rate

(courtesy zerohedge)

Payrolls Miss Due To Hurricane But Revisions

Surge; Unemployment At 48 Year Low

Ahead of today’s jobs report, Nomura’s Bilal Hafeez summarized the worst case scenario as “weak employment but high wage growth.” And moments ago, we got one half of this scenario materializing when the BLS reported that in September only 134K jobs were added, well below the 185K expected (and certainly far lower than the 500K print implied by the latest ISM nonmfg report). This was the lowest print going back to March 2017 when only 50K jobs were added.

However before traders panic, note that this number was impacted by the Hurricane: the BLS noted that 299,000 people were not at work due to bad weather, which is over 200K higher than the 85K average for September.  Another 1,489K workers who usually work full-time could only work part-time due to the weather last month. This means that next month, the September job report will be revised sharply higher.

Meanwhile, offsetting the September weakness was the revision to the August jobs report, which was pushed higher from 201K to 270K, while July was revised from 147K to 165K. With these revisions, employment gains in July and August combined were 87,000 more than previously reported.

Even as payrolls missed, the unemployment rate ticked lower again, sliding from 3.9% to 3.7%, below the 3.8% consensus estimate, and the lowest print in 48 years. Also of note: the Unemployment rate has now hit the Fed’s year end projection of 3.7%. The central bank recently estimated that unemployment would fall to 3.7% in the fourth quarter, which is where we are now, then decline to 3.5% in 2019 and remain there in 2020.

more important average hourly earnings print came in line, with wages rising 0.3% on the month, and 2.8% on the year, both in line with expectations. According to Bloomberg, “the tick down in average hourly earnings suggests that wage pressures remain modest, a sign that firming inflationary pressures are likely still a way off.”

Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 6 cents to $22.81 in September.

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls remained unchanged at 34.5 hours in September. In manufacturing, the workweek edged down by 0.1 hour to 40.8 hours, and overtime edged down by 0.1 hour to 3.4 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 33.7 hours.

Other details from the report:

  • Broad U-6 measure of unemployment rose to 7.5% from 7.4%
  • Manufacturing payrolls added 18,000 (est. 15,000); construction added 23,000; government employment rose 13,000
  • Participation rate held at 62.7%
  • Monthly job gains averaged 190,000 over past three months

Breaking down the job gains:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 134,000 in September, compared with an average monthly gain of 201,000 over the prior 12 months. In September, job gains occurred in professional and business services, in health care, and in transportation and warehousing.

  • Employment in professional and business services increased by 54,000 in September and has risen by 560,000 over the year.
  • Health care employment rose by 26,000 in September. Hospitals added 12,000 jobs, and employment in ambulatory health care services continued to trend up (+10,000). Over the year, health care employment has increased by 302,000.
  • In September, employment in transportation and warehousing rose by 24,000. Job gains occurred in warehousing and storage (+8,000) and in couriers and messengers (+5,000). Over the year, employment in transportation and warehousing has increased by 174,000.
  • Construction employment continued to trend up in September (+23,000). The industry has added 315,000 jobs over the past 12 months.
  • Employment in manufacturing continued to trend up in September (+18,000), reflecting a gain in durable goods industries. Over the year, manufacturing has added 278,000 jobs, with about four-fifths of the gain in the durable goods component.
  • Within mining, employment in support activities for mining rose by 6,000 over the month and by 53,000 over the year.
  • Employment in leisure and hospitality was little changed over the month (-17,000). Prior to September, employment in the industry had been on a modest upward trend. Some of the weakness in this industry in September may reflect the impact of Hurricane Florence.
  • Employment showed little or no change over the month in other major industries, including wholesale trade, retail trade, information, financial activities, and government.

end

 

This is where all the jobs went: who was hiring and who was not

(courtesy zerohedge)

Where The Jobs Were In June: Who’s Hiring And Who Isn’t

As noted earlier, September was a hurricane-affected month for payrolls, resulting in lower than expected jobs across several categories, among which Leisure and Hospitality jobs were the hardest hit.

However, a deeper dive reveals that other industries were also severely impacted, with the 2nd worst September in contraction in Retail (-20K), Telecom (-3K), Education (-12K), Child Care (-4K) and Food Services (-23K).

This, according to Southbay Research, was remarkable because while last year’s layoffs surged 100K above trend due to 2 major Hurricanes that displaced millions and destroyed 10s of thousands of homes, with jobless claims across Texas, Florida and Puerto Rico soaring by 100K+, this year, one hurricane came but was very mild and had minimal impact, with Initial Jobless Claims rose a combined 12K. Yet somehow, “the impact was the same.”

Here’s one example: Food Services. As Southbay notes, somehow a mild storm led to layoffs at a scale only seen last year when 2 major Hurricanes shut down Puerto Rico and Florida and pummeled Texas.

One note here is that if one were to revise last month’s data to incorporate the “missing” jobs, the impact on hourly earnings would be adverse as these are mostly lower paying jobs, and while the result would have been higher jobs, it would have also pushed down on hourly earnings.

Odd BLS estimates of layoffs aside, we know the following:

  • Employment in professional and business services increased by 54,000.
  • Health care employment rose by 26,000 as hospitals added 12,000 jobs, and employment in ambulatory health care services continued to trend up (+10,000).
  • Employment in transportation and warehousing rose by 24,000. Job gains occurred in warehousing and storage (+8,000) and in couriers and messengers (+5,000).
  • Construction employment continued to trend up in September (+23,000).
  • Employment in manufacturing continued to trend up in September (+18,000)
  • Employment in mining, employment in support activities for mining rose by 6,000

And visually:

Looking over the past year, the following charts from Bloomberg show the industries with the highest and lowest rates of employment growth for the prior year. The latest month’s figures are highlighted.

One final observation from Southbay Research, who notes that overtime pay dropped as staffing increases.

Overtime is a temporary solution to strong demand.  While a drop in overtime can signal a fall in demand, it can signal that employers no longer think the strong demand is temporary.

Whatever the reason, after 1+ years of above-trend overtime, employers have turned to hiring.  Because it’s also cheaper than paying double rates for overtime. This, to Soutbay, “is another metric supporting continued hiring growth.”

end
Strange we still have a very high 5.1% of job holders having multiple jobs.  If the economy was  great, we would see the part timers jump to full time
(courtesy zerohedge)

The “Mystery” Of America’s Mounting Multiple Jobholders

After a decade of generally positive job market data (even if largely thanks to job growth among lower-wage recipients), one measure has failed to validate this narrative: multiple job holders made up 5.1% of the total employed in August, and that share of the job market has been hovering around 5% since the beginning of the “recovery” in mid-2009.

In fact, the share of multiple job holders has remained the same,  even though unemployment has fallen to 3.7%, the lowest since 1969. This 3.7% figure is also less than half the level in the immediate aftermath of the financial crisis. Monthly hiring gains are ahead of the pace they set in 2017, averaging over 200,000 in 2018.

However, wage inflation and pay gains have mostly been disappointing and employers have been reluctant to increase hours and job benefits. This is likely the key reason why many workers continue to work more than one job at a time. Ryan Sweet, head of monetary policy research at Moody’s told Bloomberg:

“The labor market is not as equally tight across the country, and the pickup in worker pay hasn’t been strong enough. At the same time, by almost every metric the labor market is really strong, which means there’s a lot more opportunity for people.”

Normally, a decline in the number of multiple jobholders would mean that people are transitioning to regular job positions with normalized schedules and better benefits. But according to Sweet, these multiple job holder numbers are capturing “something more structural”. That’s a macroeconomist’s way of saying that having two jobs is becoming the new normal.

There are also a litany of indications that the labor market is tightening. Openings for jobs exceeded the number of unemployed by the most on record in July of this year. Part-timers who would prefer a full-time position have fallen to a post recession low of 4.4 million. Those holding multiple jobs felt to 7.9 million people in August after a spike over 8 million in July, although it is that particular number that has failed to shrink demonstrably in the past decade.

Bloomberg tells the story of Komi Assogba, who took on a second job to support his family after moving to the United States from France. The 58 year old, a former chemistry teacher, works as both a barista for Starbucks and a bellhop at the Arlington, Virginia Crowne Plaza Hotel. He started working two jobs nearly a decade ago while his kids were growing up.

“I was looking for an opportunity for my kids. They were growing so fast, and I said, why not make the sacrifice for them?” he stated.

His kids are now grown and pursuing graduate degrees, but he still likes working two jobs. He told Bloomberg that he prefers to stay busy and that he likes the benefits. Starbucks is helping him with tuition, and he’s submitting applications for a Masters degree so he can eventually return to teaching chemistry. He plans on taking classes on his only day off during the week, Saturday.

Still, the prevalence of multiple jobholders in the US remains a bit of a mystery, at least in the face of official data.

Back in early September, after the last jobs report, we posed the question whether the U.S. job market was overheating. The report in early Septembershowed that the Phillips curve is finally coming back to life as average hourly earnings spiked, rising by double the expected 0.2% M/M, and posting a 2.9% increase annually, the highest since the financial crisis.

We also took note of several additional trends that we will continue to watch, such as:

It currently takes 31 days to fill a vacant job, up from 23 days in 2006:

Businesses are very worried about tight labor market:

It’s much harder to fill a job today than in 2005-2006:

Small business hiring plans at record highs:

Workers working part-time for economic reasons at pre-crisis levels:

And yet, despite all the favorable trends, many of which confirm that the job market has rarely been stronger – or tighter – the “mystery” of multiple jobholders remains, and all else equal, is the biggest clue why for all the confidence and economic indicators, wage inflation has yet to truly pick up, some ten years after the financial crisis started.

end

market data

AS we pointed out to you yesterday, the rise in 10 and 30 yr bond yields are dangerous!!. The bond king Jeff Gundlach warns that stocks and bonds are heading lower

(courtesy zerohedge)

The 30-Year Has “Broken Out” – Jeff

Gundlach Warns Stocks And Bonds Are

Going Lower Together

Having broken above its multi-decade trendline, 30Y Yields are starting to levitate faster than even the equity markets can handle…

Following this week’s bond-market rout, DoubleLine’s Jeff Gundlach noted that the 30 Year Treasury yield “has broken above its multi-year base” which “should lead to significantly higher yields for investors.” 

During a webcast last month, Gundlach said the effect that stimulus has on markets is akin to the effect that miracle grow can have on plants. Too much of it burns them out – which is why it’s not encouraging that deficits are widening this late in the cycle. 

And if yields continue to rise, the selling rout in both bonds and equities – a twin rally that has been fueled by QE and rising US debt levels – will likely worsen. Indeed, the bond market is facing a crucial test.

During that webcast, Gundlach pointed out that the S&P 500 and US debt outstanding have climbed in tandem since the bull market began.

SNP

And with the Fed in quantitative tightening mode, the markets are slowly losing a crucial source of support. While it’s possible that rates could drop again, Gundlach said this is merely conjecture. Yields are on the cusp of a crucial breakout.

“As I have been saying, two consecutive closes above 3.25 percent on the benchmark 30-year Treasury means that my statement in July 2016 that we were seeing the low – I said italicized, underlined and in boldface – is now, looking at the charts, thoroughly corroborated,” Gundlach told Reuters.

The 30-year is “the last man standing” in the Treasury market. And if the curve continues to steepen, equities will move lower, particularly if yields climb at an “alarming” pace.

“Also, the curve is steepening a little in this breakout, which is another sign that the situation has changed.”

Already, “the stock market has started to take notice,” Gundlach warned “and will continue to… particularly if the speed at which rates rise becomes alarming.”

Gundlach finished his interview with another bold call. Namely, that stocks outside the US are already down significantly from the Jan. 26, 2018, synchronized high, “which will go down in history as the peak for the global stock market for this cycle.”

END
Credit card debt jumps by 20 billion dollars and now this total is now at $3.94 trillion, a 6.2% annualized increase. Also student loans and auto loans rise quite dramatically to 1.532 trillion dollars and 1.042 trillion dollars respectively.
(courtesy zero hedge)

US Consumer Credit Hits All Time High As

Credit Card Usage Jumps

After a surprising slump in the use of revolving, i.e. credit card, debt when in the months of June and July US consumers “charged” only $639 million during the peak summer months, moments ago, the Fed reported that in August, consumer credit posted a significant rebound, rising by $20 billion, above the $15.0 billion expected, and bringing the total to a $3.94 trillion, a 6.2% annualized increase from a year ago, and a new all time high, largely on the back of a newfound love with credit cards.

More notably, after a two-month dormancy in using credit cards, American consumers returned to doing what they do best – spending money they don’t have – with revolving credit jumping by $4.8 billion, the highest monthly increase since May, and the second highest of 2018. The monthly increase brought the total to a new all time high of $1.042 trillion.

At the same time, growth in non-revolving credit, i.e. student and auto loans, was stable and in line with recent months, increasing by $15.2 billion, the same as July increase, and also bringing the total to a new all time high of $2.894 trillion.

In other words, while Americans continued to spend on cars and college, they once again rediscovered their enthusiasm to buy every day items on credit.

And while the rebound in revolving credit use will silence any questions about the resilience of the US consumer during the summer, the recent dramatic upward revision to personal savings notwithstanding, one place where there were no surprises, was in the total amount of student and auto loans: here as expected, both numbers were at fresh all time highs, with a record $1.532 trillion in student loans outstanding, an increase of $8 billion in the quarter, auto debt also hit a new all time high of $1.131 trillion, an increase of $18 billion in the quarter.

USA economic/general stories

 

.

SWAMP STORIES

Susan Collins and Joe Manchin vote yes and thus ensuring Kavangaugh confirmation

(courtesy zerohedge)

Collins, Manchin Vote “Yes”, Ensuring

Kavanaugh Confirmation

After months of debate, last minute allegations of sexual assault, an FBI investigation and dozens of hours of tense testimony, Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh now has the 50 votes required to be confirmed to the Supreme Court, after both GOP Sen. Susan Collins of Maine and Democrat Joe Manchin of West Virginia announced that they would be voting yes. GOP holdout Jeff Flake of Arizona also said that he would vote to confirm Kavanaugh “unless something big changed.”

Earlier in the day, the Senate completed a cloture vote to advance Kavanaugh to final confirmation, which Manchin broke ranks and voted in favor of.

Most senators sat at their desk as the dramatic roll call unfolded, with major suspense over where Murkowski, Manchin and Flake would land. Collins was the first swing vote to support Kavanaugh on the procedural roll call, quickly followed by Flake. Murkowski then inaudibly voted no, a jarring defection that left Republicans with no room for error.

After it was clear that Kavanaugh had the 50 votes needed to advance, Manchin became Kavanaugh’s only Democratic supporter. Manchin, who left the chamber when the clerk called his name, came back into the chamber and voted in favor of Kavanaugh. His phone could be seen ringing and Manchin stared at it as the vote continued. –Politico

“This is a difficult decision for everybody,” Flake said to reporters, who added that he thinks Kavanaugh will be confirmed on Saturday.

Meanwhile, Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT) is set to fly to Montana to attend his daughter’s Saturday wedding. If the vote is too close without Daines, he will be forced to fly back to Washington D.C. to cast the deciding vote.

“We’ll wait and see how this all unfolds,” Daines said. “We have transportation arranged and we’ll wait and see what happens.” He added that Rep. Greg Gianforte (R-MT) offered him the use of his private plane.

President Trump has taken a largely hands-off approach to Kavanaugh’s confirmation – instead communicating in private with his political allies, such as Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), according to Politico, which adds that the White House is “cautiously opimistic” that Kavanaugh will be confirmed.

According to PredictIt, however, Kavanaugh’s odds of confirmation now stand at 96%:

Update 4: Democrat Joe Manchin of West Virginia broke ranks, announcing his support for Judge Kavanaugh shortly after Collins’ announcement.

“Based on all of the information I have available to me, including the recently completed FBI report, I have found Judge Kavanaugh to be a qualified jurist who will follow the Constitution and determine cases based on the legal findings before him,” Manchin wrote in a statement.

View image on TwitterView image on Twitter

Seung Min Kim

@seungminkim

BREAKING —> Manchin to back Kavanaugh

Update 3: Collins will vote to confirm Kavanaugh

Update 2:  Collins defended Kavanaugh’s record defending gay rights, citing a quote in the gay baker case: “the days of treating gay and lesbian couples as second class citizens who are inferior in dignity and worth are over in this supreme court.”

On the topic of abortion and over turning Roe v. Wade, Collins says that to her knowledge “Judge Kavanaugh is the first Supreme Court nominee to express the view that precedent is not merely a practice and tradition, but rooted in article three of our constitution itself.”

Sahil Kapur

@sahilkapur

Susan Collins on Roe v. Wade: “Protecting this right is important to me. To my knowledge, Judge Kavanaugh is the first Supreme Court nominee to express the view that precedent is not merely a practice and tradition, but rooted in Article III of our Constitution itself.”

Sahil Kapur

@sahilkapur

Collins on Kavanaugh: “In short, his views on honoring precedent would preclude attempts to do by stealth that which one has committed not to do overtly.”

Sahil Kapur

@sahilkapur

If conservatives thought Kavanaugh was another O’Connor or Souter, zero chance he’d have been on Trump’s short-list given who helped write it. Either they’re wrong or Susan Collins is wrong.

Sahil Kapur

@sahilkapur

Susan Collins: “His opinions are invariably thoughtful and fair… Judge Kavanaugh is more a centrist than some of his critics maintain.”

Sahil Kapur

@sahilkapur

COLLINS: “I found (Ford’s) testimony to be sincere, painful and compelling. I believe that she is a survivor of a sexual assault and that this trauma has upended her life. Nevertheless, the four witnesses she named could not corroborate any of the events of that evening.”

Sahil Kapur

@sahilkapur

Susan Collins: “This is not a criminal trial and I do not believe that claims such as these need to be proved beyond a reasonable doubt” but the claims “should meet a threshold of more likely than not.” She says “the allegations fail to meet the more likely than not standard.”

Sahil Kapur

@sahilkapur

Susan Collins: “The fact remains, someone leaked this letter against Professor Ford’s expressed wishes. I suspect, regrettably, that we will never know who did it… To that leaker…let me say that what you did was unconscionable.”

Update: Collins started out by blasting liberals for promising to oppose whomever Trump picked for the Supreme Court before Kavanaugh’s name was even known.

***

GOP Senator Susan Collins of Maine is announcing whether she will vote to confirm Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh. Collins was one of three GOP holdouts, along with Jeff Flake of Arizona and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska – who is likely to vote no after stating on Friday that Kavanaugh was “not the right man for the court.”

Collins joined with Flake and Murkowski in demanding the FBI investigate claims of sexual harassment against Kavanaugh, and said on Thursday that it was “very thorough” and did not corroborate the claims of accuser Christine Blasey Ford.

“I think Susan Collins was quoted saying it was very thorough but no new corroborative information came out of it. That’s accurate,” Flake told reporters after viewing the FBI report in the Capitol Visitor Center’s secure compartmentalized information facility (SCIF) on Thursday.

As Collins took the podium, several protesters began shouting “vote no!” from the Senate gallery.

Watch: 

SWAMP STORIES COURTESY OF THE KING REPORT

AND SPECIAL THANKS TO CHRIS POWELL OF GATA FOR SENDING THIS TO US

 

Russia collusion bombshell: DNC lawyers met with FBI on dossier before surveillance warrant
Former FBI general counsel James Baker met during the 2016 season with at least one attorney from Perkins Coie, the Democratic National Committee’s private law firm… the firm used by the DNC and Hillary Clinton’s campaign to secretly pay research firm Fusion GPS and Christopher Steele… to compile a dossier of uncorroborated raw intelligence alleging Trump and Moscow were colluding to hijack the presidential election.
   The dossier… was then used by the FBI as the main evidence seeking a Foreign IntelligenceSurveillance Act (FISA) warrant targeting the Trump campaign in the final days of the campaign…
    Baker’s interview broke new ground both about the FBI’s use of news media in 2016 and 2017 to further the Trump case and about Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein’s conversations in spring 2017 regarding possible use of a body wire to record Trump
    Baker could not answer some questions about FBI media contacts, citing an ongoing investigation by the Justice Department inspector general into alleged illegal leaks, during and after the election, about the Trump collusion probe and other matters
CAPITOL CHAOS: Protesters Storm Senate Offices, Demand Lawmakers ‘Cancel Kavanaugh’
Democrats’ Kavanaugh assassination is reuniting the right [After DJT divided it.]
It’s increasingly clear that Democrats and the media establishment made an enormous miscalculationby waging total war against Kavanaugh and his family…
Accused doxxer of GOP senators allegedly threatened to publish lawmakers’ children’s health info
Cosko is alleged to have been confronted by the staffer and then walked out. The staffer then called police. Hours later the witness received an email from “livefreeorpwn@gmail.com” saying: “If you tell anyone I will leak it all. Emails signal conversations gmails. Senators children’s health information and socials.”…    https://www.foxnews.com/politics/accused-doxxer-of-gop-senators-allegedly-threatened-to-publish-lawmakers-childrens-health-info
end
I hope you all have a great weekend and on Monday I will provide my normal commentaries
all the best
Harvey
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