OCTOBER 22/GOLD DOWN $3.90 TO $1221.80/SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TO $14.56/GEFIRA REPORTS THAT THE EU WILL PLAY HARDBALL AGAINST ITALY/ITALY STILL REFUSES TO BUDGE/LOTS OF ACTIVITY IN THE KHASHOGGI AFFAIR: IT SURE LOOKS LIKE MBS HAD HIS HANDS ON THE MURDER/ALSO DRONES SHOW THE SAUDIS DESTROYING DOCUMENTS/TRUMP READY TO SEND THE ARMY TO STOP THE ARMADA OF MIGRANTS FROM APPROACHING THE USA/FEW SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

 

 

GOLD: $1221.80 DOWN  $3.90 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver:   $14.56 DOWN 8 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  1222.50

 

silver: $14.57

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold and silver:

OCT

 

 

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  OCT CONTRACT: 55 NOTICE(S) FOR 5500 OZ

Total number of notices filed so far for OCT:  1736 for 173,600 OZ  (5.3996 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

 

FOR OCTOBER

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

NIL OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 340 for 1,700,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE  $6592: DOWN  $4

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $6577  DOWN  20 

 

end

 

XXXX

 

China is controlling the gold market

WE WILL NOT PROVIDE LONDON FIXES AS THEY ARE NOT ACCURATE AS TO WHAT IS GOING ON AT THE SAME TIME FRAME.

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST FELL BY 1475 CONTRACTS FROM 199,051 DOWN TO  197,576 DESPITE FRIDAY’S 6 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE  MOVED FURTHER FROM AUGUST’S RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY(WELL OVER 30 MILLION OZ AT THE COMEX FOR JULY , 6 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST AND NOW JUST LESS THAN 31 MILLION OZ STANDING IN SEPTEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

EFP’S FOR NOV.  733 EFP’S FOR DECEMBER AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 733 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 733 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 733 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 3.6665 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 6 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR THE JUNE/2018 COMEX DELIVERY MONTH. (5.420 MILLION OZ);  30.370 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN JULY, FOR AUGUST: 6.065 MILLION OZ AND  39.505 MILLION  OZ STANDING  IN SEPT. AND 2,050,000 OZ STANDING IN OCTOBER.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF SEPT: 

30,783 CONTRACTS (FOR 16 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 30,783 CONTRACTS) OR 153.91 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1924 CONTRACTS OR 9.619 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF SEPT:  153.91 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 22.00% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:           2,373.43    MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018:                                              236.879     MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018:                                               244.95       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018:                                        236.67       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL 2018:                                           385.75        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MAY 2018:                                             210.05        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JUNE 2018:                                           345.43         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JULY 2018:                                            172.84          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR AUGUST 2018:                                      205.23          MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR SEPTEMBER 2018:                                 167,05          MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1389 DESPITE THE  6 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX //FRIDAY. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1264 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE LOST A SMALL SIZED: 742 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 733 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 1475  OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 6 CENT RISE IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.64 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN THE BIG JULY DELIVERY MONTH OF SLIGHTLY OVER 30 MILLION OZ, IN AUGUST ANOTHER BIG 6.065 MILLION OZ IN A NON ACTIVE MONTH AND IN SEPTEMBER AN FINAL MONSTROUS 39.505 MILLION OZ OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY… NOBODY IS PAYING ATTENTION TO THE HUGE NUMBER OF PHYSICAL OUNCES STANDING FOR SILVER THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS.

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.997 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 144% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT AUGUST MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR NIL OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  AN INITIAL HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./AND NOW OCTOBER: 2,050,000 oz
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2174 CONTRACTS UP TO 475,077 DESPITE THE LOSS IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/FRIDAY’S TRADING (A FALL IN PRICE OF $1.70).THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A  FAIR SIZED 2545 CONTRACTS: ALWAYS, ON THE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE IN ANY ACTIVE MONTH WHETHER GOLD OR SILVER THE OI COLLAPSES.  IT IS HERE THAT THE MIGRANTS RECEIVE THEIR FIAT BONUS FOR ENGAGING IN THIS EXERCISE. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING EFP ISSUANCE FOR TODAY:

 

NOVEMBER HAD EFP’S ISSUED AND, DECEMBER HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 2545 CONTACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 475,077. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A GOOD OI GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4719 CONTRACTS:  2174 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 2545 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN: 4719 CONTRACTS OR  471900 OZ = 14.6 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ FRIDAY TO THE TUNE OF $1.70.

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 2767 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT : 125,337 CONTRACTS OR 12,533,700 OZ OR 389.85 TONNES (16 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 7783 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY OR 778,300 OZ/ TRADING DAY),,

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 16 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 389.85 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 389.85/2550 x 100% TONNES =  15.28% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN JULY ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE:     6,065.65*  TONNES   *SURPASSED ANNUAL PROD’N

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018:           653.22  TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018:         649.45 TONNES  (20 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018:             741.89 TONNES  (22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR APRIL 2018:                 713.84 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MAY 2018:                   693.80 TONNES ( 22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JUNE 2018                      650.71 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JULY 2018                       605.5 TONNES     (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR AUG. 2018                      488.54  TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR SEPT 2018                       470.64 TONNES   (19 TRADING DAYS)

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 2174 DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICING ($1.70) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK FRIDAY) //. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 2545 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 2545 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A GOOD GAIN OF 4719 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

2545 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 2174 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 14.6 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS GOOD DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A SMALL LOSS OF $1.70 IN FRIDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

 

 

we had: 55 notice(s) filed upon for 5500 oz of gold at the comex.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD DOWN $3.90 TODAY: / 

 

A HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY: SOMETHING IS GOING ON!!

EARLY MORNING:

A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.97 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD BUT THIS GOLD WAS USED IN THE RAID TODAY.

B) A RAPID DEPOSIT OF 2.06 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ADDED.  THESE GUYS CANNOT FIND AN OZ AT THE COMEX AND YET THEY WITHDRAW AND DEPOSIT WITH RECKLESS ABANDON.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/GLD INVENTORY   747.88 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 747.88 tonnes.

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER DOWN 8  CENTS TODAY

A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

A DEPOSIT OF 470,000

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.509 MILLION OZ.

 

NOTE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GLD AND SLV: THE CROOKS CAN RAID GOLD BECAUSE THEY DO HAVE SOME PHYSICAL.  THEY DO NOT RAID SILVER PROBABLY BECAUSE THERE IS NO REAL SILVER INVENTORIES BEHIND THEM

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY 1475 CONTRACTS from 199,051 DOWN TO 197,576  AND MOVING A LITTLE FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

i) 0 EFP’s for November… and

 

733 CONTRACTS FOR DECEMBER AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 733 CONTRACTS . EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 1389 CONTRACTS TO THE 733 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A  NET LOSS OF 656 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 3.28 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER…AND NOW OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.

 

 

RESULT: A DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 6 CENT PRICING GAIN THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// FRIDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED 733 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i) MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 104.41 POINTS OR 4.09% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 591.75 POINTS OR 2.32% //The Nikkei closed UP 82.74 OR 0.37%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.61%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9422 AS POBC RESUMES  ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER CANCELLED/Oil DOWN to 69.14 dollars per barrel for WTI and 79.93 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED MIXED///.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED SLIGHTLY DOWN AT 6.9422 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED SLIGHTLY DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9454: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS STOPPED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER  AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA/

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C/  CHINA

China’s economy is not crashing and as Snider points out:  it is worse than that because there is no growth coming from this nation.  This would be very scary for the rest of the world as China is the engine for global growth

(Jeffrey Snider/Alhambra Investments partners)

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

i)ITALY/EU

Quite a commentary today from GEFIRA, our resident experts on European affairs especially on Italy. Today, the European Financial establishment just declared war on Italy as Dijsselbloem on the CNBC interview suggested to Italy that there will not be a bailout and that Italy needs a bail in and knock off a huge number of mom and pop depositors.  This would be act of war in Italy

( GEFIRA)

Monday morning: ITALY

Italy admits to the deficit breach but refuses to budge

(courtesy zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)SAUDI ARABIA
Saudi Arabia claims that he died of the choke hold after undergoing a fist fight.  Interesting odds 15 to one !!
( zerohedge)

ii)Anger is spreading throughout the globe on the Saudi response.  Turkey responds that they will never allow a cover up of the Khashoggi murder.

( zerohedge)

iii)This is a biggy!! It seems that the Saudi Crown Prince MbS spoke by phone of Khashoggi moments before he was killed.  He looks like he refused to come back to Saudi Arabia and once he refused, he was murdered

( zerohedge)

iv)Russia/USA

Russia is angry at the USA pullout of the INF nuclear deal.  They term the situation as “blackmail”

(courtesy zerohedge)

v)ISRAEL/JORDAN

Jordan cancels key part of the historic treaty with Israel, by refusing to renew land annex in the area called Naharayim and Zofar

(courtesy zerohedge)

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

Mexico/Central America/USA

President Trump has threatened to cut Central American aid as Mexico loses control of the migrant situation

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Lepard comments that he sees a reversion to the mean and this will send our precious metals rising

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING

 

ii)Market data

 

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

The following is a must read as David Stockman writes about the truth of the reporting of the actual job numbers.  He states that the true unemployment rate is 40% and he does a detailed calculation on his findings. Central banks only exist for bankers and could not care less for anybody else: they are the mortal enemy of the capitalist prosperity
( David Stockman)

iv)SWAMP STORIES

This latest commentary is a dandy. The judge hearing the  Russian collusion case is Judge Dabney Friedrich a Republican who also has the distinction of dating Supreme Court Justice Kavanaugh.  No doubt she is well tuned on the Russian collusion saga.  She has ordered Mueller to bring her evidence of that collusion..

(zerohedge)

E)SWAMP STORIES/THE KING REPORT

Let us head over to the comex:

 

The total gold comex open interest ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2174 CONTRACTS UP to an OI level 475,077 DESPITE THE FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($1.70 LOSS IN FRIDAY’S COMEX TRADING)FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE. ONCE WE GET TO FIRST DAY NOTICE, THEN THE OPEN INTEREST RISES AND AGAIN THEY DID NOT DISAPPOINT US.

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 2545 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

OCTOBER: 0 EFP’S AND DECEMBER:  2545 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  2545 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A 5792 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 2545 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED 3247 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  4719 contracts OR 471900 OZ OR 14.60 TONNES.

Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OPEN INTEREST DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE/ YESTERDAY (ENDING UP WITH THE FALL IN PRICE OF (1.70). THE  TOTAL OPEN INTEREST GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  4719 OI CONTRACTS..

We are now in the active contract month of OCTOBER. For the October contract month, we lost 649 contract to fall to 116 contracts.  We had 649 notice yesterday, so we lost 0 contracts or NIL oz will not stand for delivery at the comex and these guys marched over to London as they received London based forwards on top of a fiat bonus for their hard work.

The next delivery month is the non active NOVEMBER contract month and here the OI FELL by 8 contracts down to 367.  The next delivery month after November is the very big December contract month and here the OI rose by 1917 contracts up to 371,591 contracts.

 

 

 

 

WE HAD 55 NOTICES FILED AT THE COMEX FOR 5500 OZ.

 

FOR COMPARISON BETWEEN LAST YR AND TODAY:

 

FOR THE OCTOBER CONTRACT MONTH: OCTOBER IS THE WEAKEST OF ALL DELIVERY MONTHS IN GOLD.

FOR THE COMEX OCT 2017 GOLD CONTRACT MONTH: WE INITIALLY HAD 300,600 OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY OR 9.349 TONNES. (VS 13.695 TONNES OCT 2018)

AT THE CONCLUSION OF THE OCTOBER/2017 TRADING MONTH: 333,300 OZ OR 10.367 TONNES FINALLY STOOD FOR DELIVERY

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI FELL BY 1475 CONTRACTS FROM 199,051 DOWN TO 197,576 (AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S  OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED DESPITE A 6 CENT RISE IN PRICING.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCTOBER AND, WE WERE  INFORMED THAT WE HAD A FAIR SIZED 733 EFP CONTRACTS:  FOR NOVEMBER:  0 CONTRACTS AND FOR …

 

FOR DECEMBER: 733 CONTRACTS AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS.  THESE EFPS WERE ISSUED TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 733.  ON A NET BASIS WE LOST 742 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A 1475 CONTRACT LOSS AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 733 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:   742 CONTRACTS…AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 6 CENT RISE IN PRICING// FRIDAY.

 

 

 

 

We are now in the non active delivery month of October and here we had a LOSS of 0 contracts to stand at 1 contracts.  We had 0 notices filed  YESTERDAY so we gained 0 contracts or AN ADDITIONAL nil oz will stand for delivery at the comex as these guys refused to accept a London based forward plus as well as a fiat bonus 

 

After October, is the non active delivery month of November and here we gained 1 contracts up to 1271 contracts.  After November, we have a December contract and here we LOST 1407 contracts DOWN to 156,354

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We had 0 notice(s) filed for nil OZ for the SEPTEMBER 2018 COMEX contract for silver

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

 

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY: 195,705 contracts,

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  249,969  contracts..

 

 

 

 

 

 

AND NOW COMPARISON FOR OCTOBER:

 

FOR THE OCTOBER 2017 CONTRACT MONTH WE HAD 4.205,000 OZ OF SILVER INITIALLY STAND FOR DELIVERY.

BY MONTH’S END WE HAD 5,475,000 OZ FINALLY STAND AS QUEUE JUMPING IN SILVER WAS ALREADY IN THE NORM.

OCTOBER IS A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH FOR SILVER BUT AS YOU CAN SEE OCT 2017 DELIVERIES WERE PRETTY

GOOD.

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  OCT/GOLD

OCT 23-/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 nil  oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

nil

 

oz

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
55 notice(s)
 5500 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
61 contracts
(6100 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1736 notices
173600 OZ
5.3996 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

 

total gold entering dealer:  0 oz

total gold withdrawing from the dealer;  0 oz

 

we had 0 kilobar transaction/
we had 0 withdrawal out of the customer account:
total customer withdrawals:  0 oz
we had 0 customer deposit
total customer deposits: nil  oz
we had 0 adjustments..

FOR THE OCTOBER 2018 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 55 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 40 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the OCT/2018. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1736) x 100 oz or 100 oz, to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT. (116 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (55 x 100 oz per contract) equals 179,700 OZ OR 5.5894 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this non active month of OCT

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCT/2018 contract month:

No of notices served (1736 x 100 oz)  + {116)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (55x 100 oz )which equals 179,700 oz standing OR 5.5894 TONNES in this active delivery month of OCTOBER.

 

We lost 0 contracts or nil oz of gold will stand as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards and received a fiat bonus for their effort.

 

 

THERE ARE ONLY 5.987 TONNES OF REGISTERED COMEX GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 5.5894 TONNES STANDING FOR OCTOBER  

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  192,218.541 oz or   5.987 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,101,421.184 oz 251.98 tonnes

IN THE LAST 25 MONTHS 104 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: THERE IS NO GOLD AT THE COMEX..AS THE CROOKS SEEMS TO BE FORCING LONGS TO TAKE DELIVERY OF LONDON FORWARDS AND NOT TAKE POSSESSION OF ANY GOLD AT THE COMEX/

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE AUGUST DELIVERY MONTH

OCTOBER INITIAL standings/SILVER

OCT 23 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
 629,948.765 oz
CNT
BRINKS

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
NIL
oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
607,309.900
oz
jpm
No of oz served today (contracts)
0
CONTRACT(S)
nil OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
1 contracts
(5,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 409 contracts

(2,045,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: NIL oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

we had 1 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: 607,309.900 oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 146.144 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.7% of all official comex silver. (146.144 million/288 million)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today:  607.309.900  oz

we had 2 withdrawals from the customer account;

 

i) Out of CNT: 575,240.485 oz

II) Out of Brinks 54,708.280 oz

 

 

 

total withdrawals: 629,948.765 oz

 

 

we had 0 adjustments

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  77,197 million

total dealer + customer silver:  288.721  million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the OCTOBER 2018. contract month is represented by 0 contract(s) FOR nil oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 409 x 5,000 oz = 2,045,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT. (1) and the number of notices served upon today (0 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the OCT/2018 contract month: 409(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of OCT (1) -number of notices served upon today (0)x 5000 oz equals 2,050,000 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month.  This is a huge number of oz standing for an off delivery month.

We gained 0 contracts or an additional nil oz will be standing at the Comex as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards on top of not receiving a fiat bonus .

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 59,280 CONTRACTS  …

 

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 79,311 CONTRACTS..

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 79,311 CONTRACTS EQUATES TO 396 million OZ  OR 56/65% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -3.80% (OCT 22/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -1.46% to NAV (OCT 22/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -3.80%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.38/TRADING 11.83/DISCOUNT 4.470

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

Oct 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.90 TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.97 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 745.82

AND THEN: A DEPOSIT OF 2.06 TONNES SUCH THAT THE FINAL RESTING INVENTORY IS 747.88 TONNES

OCT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.70 : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 748.76 TONNES

OCT 18/WITH GOLD UP $2.80/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RSTS AT 748.76 TONNES

OCT 16/WITH GOLD UP BY ONLY $1.00/WE HAD ANOTHER 4.12 TONNES OF GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 748.76 TONNES

OCT 15/WITH GOLD UP $8.45/ANOTHER 5.65 TONNES OF GOLD WAS ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 744.64 TONNES

OCT 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.35/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.99 TONNES

OCT 11/WITH GOLD UP $35.20 TODAY: A HUGE PAPER GOLD INVENTORY GAIN OF 8.82 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.99 TONNES

OCT 10/WITH GOLD UP $2.65 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17 TONNES

OCT 9/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17

OCT 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.60 NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17TONNES

OCT 5/WITH GOLD UP $3.75, WE HAD A BIG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17 TONNES

OCT 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.90/WE HAD NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/731.64 TONNES

OCT 3/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.05, ANOTHER HUGE REMOVAL OF 6.18 TONNES

OCT 2 WITH GOLD UP $15.80 TODAY A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 8.35 TONNES

OCT 1…GOLD ADDS 3.94 TONNES TO THE GLDINVENTORY RESTS AT 746.17 TONNES

SEPT 28/WITH GOLD UP $8.90/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.23 TONNES

SEPT 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.90: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.23 TONNES

SEPT 26/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.05: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.23 TONNES

SEPT 25/WITH GOLD UP 0.75: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.23 TONNES

SEPT 24/WITH GOLD UP $3.20: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.23 TONNES

SEPT 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.90/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.23 TONNES

SEPT 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.80/A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .3 TONNES AND THIS IS TO PAY FOR FEES/742.23 TONNES

SEPT 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.53 TONNES

SEPT 17/WITH GOLD UP $5.20: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.53 TONNES

SEPT 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.95 TODAY, ANOTHER HUGE 2.65 TONNES OF GOLD WAS REMOVED FROM INVENTORY AT THE GLD..PRETTY SOON WE WILL HAVE ZERO INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 742.53 TONNES

SEPT 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 745.18 TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

OCT 22.2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 747.88 tonnes

*IN LAST 482 TRADING DAYS: 185.33 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 382 TRADING DAYS: A NET 28.80 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

OCT 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 470,000/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.509 MILLION OZ/

OCT 19/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INV. RESTS AT 334.039 MILLION OZ

OCT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.127  MILLION /RESTS AT 334.039 MILLION OZ/

OCT 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 15/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 12/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 11/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 9/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ

OCT 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS, A GOOD SIZE WITHDRAWAL OF 563,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ.

OCT 5/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS, NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

OCT 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS/A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.316 MILLION OZ

OCT 3 WITH SILVER FLAT, A GOOD INCREASE OF 1.879 MILLION OZ INTO INVENTORY

OCT 2 A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTOR RESTS AT 332.912

OCT 1.NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.046 MILLION  OZ.

SEPT 28/WITH SILVER UP 41 CENTS, STRANGELY WE HAD A WITHDRAWAL OF .517 MILLION OZ AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.046 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.457 MILLION OZ AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 333.563 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 26/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 335.020 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 25/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS: STRANGE!! A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SVL: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.645 MILLION OZ/.INVENTORY RESTS AT 335.020 MILLION OZ/

WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.692 MILLION OZ INTO THE INVENTORY OF THE SLV

INVENTORY RESTS AT 336.665 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 21/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 20/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 17/WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

SEPT 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.316 MILLION OZ OF SILVER ENTERS SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.973 MILLION OZ/

 

 

 

OCT 22/2018:

 

Inventory 334.509 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

HUGE JUMP IN LIBOR AND GOFO RATES

YOUR DATA…..

6Month MM GOFO 2.34/ and libor 6 month duration 2.72

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0FO+ .38

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.64%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 3.02

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.38

end

I am no longer going to provide the COT report due to it being worthless as it does include the issuance of EFP’s

If somebody could give a valid reason for inclusion, then I will do so.

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

endi) GOLDCORE BLOG

 

_________________________________________________________________________________________________

End Of The World?

by Gary Christenson of Deviant Investor

Predicting the end of the world, physical or financial, is seldom helpful.

If the prediction is correct, how do you profit from the insight? If the prediction is wrong and the “end of the world” is delayed (typical), you lose credibility.

An estimate of risk versus reward based on an analysis of current information is more useful.

Assessment: The 2018-2020 risk for most asset classes, such as stocks, bonds, corporate debt, and real estate is high while the potential reward in those asset classes is low. Gold and silver are opposite. Their long-term risk is low (September 2018) and their long-term potential reward is huge.

From Goldman Sachs:

 

OPINIONS AND FACTS SUPPORTING RISK/REWARD ASSESSMENT:

The central banks and the financial world created an “everything bubble.” This includes the stock market, bond market, housing, student loans, sub-prime auto loans, emerging markets, fiat currencies, and central bank credibility.

Low interest rates enable bubbles!

Bubbles always burst or implode. People want to believe “this time is different,” but it usually isn’t. Bubbles will implode and cause huge damage, especially to the middle and lower classes in the United States. Remember the crashes of 1987, 2000 and 2008. Each one seemed more destructive and broader in its reach than the previous crash. What will the crash of 2018 – 202? create?

If it can’t continue, it will stop – someday. Total debt – national, household, corporate, sovereign and more – has increased exponentially since 1913 when the Federal Reserve… you know the drill.

Use national debt for example. Begin the calculations in 1913, 1971, 1980, 2000 or whenever. The rate of increase in the official national debt varies but on average the debt increased by 8% to 9% every year and doubles every eight to nine years. Consider the implications of runaway debt, out of control spending, and no political will to manage spending, debt, or expansion of government, Medicare, military expenditures etc.

Year Official National Debt Projected

2018            $21 trillion doubling every 8.5 years

2027?         $42 trillion

2035?         $84 trillion

2044?       $168 trillion

2052?       $336 trillion

Outrageous! Of course, these projections are only based on 100+ years of debt history and could change. Congress might become fiscally responsible, global powers could “make nice,” greed and fear might take a vacation, the Tooth Fairy…

The banking cartel (commercial banks and central banks) will create trillions of dollars of debt in the coming years and will feed it into the economy. However, debt creation cannot continue forever. Either the dollar crashes (think Venezuela, Argentina, Turkey, and others) or the financial world resets.

From Jim Sinclair:

“Federal Reserve Gov. the Hon. Powell has only one of two moves he can make. Flood the world with dollars by active debt monetization (QE) internationally, or have the experience of presiding over the greatest depression in the history of man as his legacy. What would his boss have him do? The debt clock is ticking towards the reset by June of 2019.”

Predicting the “End of the World” is, financially speaking, predicting the reset. Yes, something must occur, but what, why and when?

WHAT IS THE RESET?

Debt must be paid or defaulted. Much of global debt can’t be paid so it will default. That debt is someone’s liability and another person’s asset. Default reduces or destroys both the liability and the value of the asset. Imagine $100,000 of thirty-year bonds being repaid in full, except the $100,000 buys 100 gallons of gasoline in thirty years.

It can’t happen here… It can! Argentina lopped 13 zeros from their pesos since 1945. Interest rates in Argentina reached 60% in 2018. Venezuela and Zimbabwe created recent hyperinflations by central bank printing. It can happen in the U.S., in Europe, in Japan and elsewhere.

When massive defaults occur, will global central banks sit on their hands and watch the collapse, or “do something?” What will they do? It is likely they will print currencies, or as Jim Sinclair says, “flood the world with dollars by active debt monetization.”

WHY WILL A RESET OCCUR?

There are many reasons. Some are:

The $20 trillion in created central bank monetization has made the financial world less stable. Which snowflake causes the avalanche (Jim Rickards) or which grain of sand initiates the collapse (John Mauldin) or which bank collapse will force the global reset? The condition of instability is more important than the apparent cause of the collapse.

The yield curve is declining. Recessions are consequences of excess credit issued by the fractional reserve banking system and central banks. A recession has not occurred for years, but the yield curve indicates a recession is close. Government revenues will collapse, marginal borrowers—corporations and individuals—will go bankrupt and the financial world could reset to a 2008 crisis during the next recession.

Stock markets have been too high for years. Apple and Amazon are trillion dollar companies. The NASDAQ 100 fell over 80% after the 2000 crash. Could it repeat? Yes, but crazy can become crazier to suck in more speculative dollars. Fundamentals are irrelevant compared to central bank liquidity pumps.

The “everything bubble” and excess debt will weaken currencies. Interest rates must remain low so debtors can afford the interest payments, which will weaken currencies. Or interest rates will reset higher and the bankruptcies will weaken currencies. Our central banks and governments have led the world into an ugly currency trap. Rig for stormy weather!

Quantitative Easing (QE) or “currency printing” or monetization is like an anti-anxiety drug or cocaine or hard liquor. Use it enough and you create addiction. Central banks created over $20 trillion in QE, enough to produce a substantial addiction. Chairman Powell of the Fed may attempt to “kick the habit” by taking baby steps to reduce the addiction. Based on 100+ years of history, the Fed will monetize more, not less, and probably soon.

WHEN WILL THE RESET OCCUR?

Read part two in a few days!

CONCLUSIONS FROM PART ONE:

  • A risk/reward analysis for 2018 – 202? points toward gold and silver, not stocks, bonds, corporate debt, student loans or most asset classes.
  • The “everything bubble” will burst. Consequences will be dire for many individuals, businesses and governments.
  • Debt and spending are “out of control.” Fiat currencies will devalue, particularly if they are needed to “paper over” massive defaults.
  • Hyperinflation, defaults and resets occurred in many countries and could (will) happen in developed countries such as the U.S.
  • Rig for stormy weather! Gold and silver bullion and coins are “insurance” against the inevitable currency devaluations that must occur in our debt based fiat currency systems.

Courtesy of Gary Christenson of Deviant Investor

 

DAG Video Still Play V2

GoldCore assists investors and pension owners to rebalance their portfolios by diversifying out of and reducing allocations to very over-valued stock and bond markets and into the safe haven physical gold and silver.

Not since 1999 and 2007 has there been a better time to rebalance portfolios in this manner with U.S. stock indices at all-time record highs and gold and silver near all-time inflated adjusted lows.

Direct Access Gold allows gold buyers to own gold in the safest way.

Learn More and Watch Direct Access Gold Video Here

 

 

 

News and Commentary

Gold inches higher as Asian stocks slip (Reuters.com)

Gold Prices Advance on Rise in Dollar (Investing.com)

Govt sets up $100m gold sector fund (Herald.co.zw)

India’s gold imports rise on new duty concerns (Mubasher.info)

Gold markets: Asian stocks, Saudi Arabia, Italy, Brexit in focus (CNBC.com)


The last time gold speculators went from that short with a huge cover was March 1999. Source: ZeroHedge

Gold Shorts Suffer Biggest Squeeze Since 1999 As Specs Abandon VIX-Selling Spree (ZeroHedge.com)

This Is What A Paper Gold Short Squeeze Looks Like (DollarCollapse.com)

Emerging economies stockpiling gold in expectation of US dollar banking system collapse – analysts (RT.com)

Dollar Libor at a 10-Year High Adds to Global Funding Headwinds (Bloomberg.com)

Italian Bonds Don’t Have History on Their Side (Bloomberg.com)

Italy’s Banks at Risk From Widening Spread, League Official Says (Bloomberg.com)

Listen on SoundCloud , Blubrry & iTunesWatch on YouTube below

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

19 Oct: USD 1,228.25, GBP 942.44 & EUR 1,073.12 per ounce
18 Oct: USD 1,224.60, GBP 933.76 & EUR 1,062.83 per ounce
17 Oct: USD 1,226.75, GBP 933.68 & EUR 1,061.38 per ounce
16 Oct: USD 1,228.85, GBP 931.35 & EUR 1,061.73 per ounce
15 Oct: USD 1,233.00, GBP 937.70 & EUR 1,064.45 per ounce
12 Oct: USD 1,218.75, GBP 922.11 & EUR 1,052.15 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

19 Oct: USD 14.61, GBP 11.21 & EUR 12.75 per ounce
18 Oct: USD 14.52, GBP 11.06 & EUR 12.60 per ounce
17 Oct: USD 14.65, GBP 11.16 & EUR 12.69 per ounce
16 Oct: USD 14.76, GBP 11.16 & EUR 12.74 per ounce
15 Oct: USD 14.74, GBP 11.19 & EUR 12.71 per ounce
12 Oct: USD 14.60, GBP 11.04 & EUR 12.60 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– Gold Reserves Surge 1,000% In Hungary As It Joins Poland, Russia, China and Other Central Banks Buying Gold
– How Do You Sell Your Digital Gold When the Internet Goes Down?
– IMF Issues Dire Warning – ‘Great Depression’ Ahead?
– Poland Raises Gold Holdings to Record High in September – IMF
– Why It’s Worth Holding Gold Bullion in Your Portfolio
– Gold’s Best Day In 2 Years Sees 2.5 Percent Gain As Global Stocks Sell Off – This Week’s Golden Nuggets
– Gold Up 2.5 Percent As Global Stock Rout Spreads To Europe
– “Gold Is On The Cusp” Of An “Explosion Higher” As Stock and Tech “Crash Is Coming”
– Gold Bottoms As Gold Industry Consolidates and Weak Hands Capitulate

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director
ii) GATA physical stories:
Lepard comments that he sees a reversion to the mean and this will send our precious metals rising
(courtesy zerohedge)

Equity Management Associates: Reversion to mean would send monetary metals soaring

 Section: 

9:44a ET Saturday, October 20, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Our friend Lawrence Lepard, managing partner of Equity Management Associates in Wellesley, Massachusetts, whose investments have been concentrated in the monetary metals mining industry, has just sent a letter to his investors outlining the case for an upward reversal in the industry’s fortunes.

Lepard’s letter may be most interesting for showing that the monetary metals are now priced far below traditional valuations and for arguing that any reversion to the mean would be explosive.

Perhaps most telling is the letter’s chart showing the sharp break in 2011 in the historic correlation between the gold price and the U.S. national debt — a break that powerfully implies urgent official intervention against a rising gold price.

Lepard has kindly allowed GATA to share the letter with you and so it is posted in PDF format here:

http://www.gata.org/files/EMA-GARP-Fund-Letter-10-2018.pdf

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

Russia adds a whopping 37.3 tonnes of gold into its inventory.

(courtesy Lawrie Williams)

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Russia accelerates gold purchases

The Russian central bank has announced yet another increase in its gold reserves in September – this time it has added a massive 1.2 million troy ounces (37.3 tonnes) to the gold in its forex holdings. This brings the overall total to 65.5 million ounces (2,037.3 tonnes) and means it has added just short of 200 tonnes of gold to its reserves in the first 9 months of the current year which represents an increased acceleration in its reserve increases over the prior few years. While it remains in fifth place among nationally reported holders of gold to the IMF (we think China in sixth place on its official reporting may actually hold more) it is ever moving closer to the big European holders – Italy and France – in the global gold reserve table which respectively report holdings of 2,451.8 tonnes and 2,436 tonnes.

A month ago we noted that the World Gold Council reported that Central Bank gold purchases rose in the first half of the current year compared with 2017, although once again the biggest reported increases were from Russia, Kazakhstan and Turkey which allseemed to be increasing their gold accumulations. The former two are both significant gold producers in their own right – Russia lying third in the global gold producer table and Kazakhstan 15th (see Top 20 World Gold Producers 2017)and Turkey also mines gold but falls outside the top 20. And now, since then, we have learnt of some significant purchases from countries with little or no gold production – namely India, Poland and, most recently Hungary which increased its gold holdings tenfold by adding 28.4 tonnes of gold in the first two weeks of the current month (see: Central Bank gold buying – New kids on the block). Whether Hungary has continued to purchase any gold since then is so far unreported.

The timings of the seeming acceleration of gold reserve increases is interesting. It coincides with the U.S.’s more aggressive attitude to trade and imposition of sanctions against countries like Russia which it deems to be opposed to it.. It also seems to impact those countries which wish to trade with the sanctions-hit economies in case they also become the victims of U.S. trade sanctions and imposed tariffs. This seems to be leading to countries attempting to reduce the dollar components of their reserves and perhaps replacing them with gold. The EU too seems to be taking a strong line against member states(Poland and Hungary are examples) which diverge politically from the consensus policies and rules. There is perhaps a fear here that the EU might break up if too many member states fall out with the EU hierarchy, which is probably why such a hard line is being taken on Brexit. A consensus deal is in both sides’ interests, but intransigence may well win the day, with adverse economic consequences for the U.K. and the EU as a whole.

The U.S.’s increasingly belligerent attitude to trade with China is yet another reason for our view that China is trying to reduce its dependence on dollar holdings in its reserves and perhaps using this money to buy more gold, but without reporting it to the IMF.Chinese officials and academics have intimated in the past that they would like to at least reduce the dollar’s dominant position in world trade and as a global reserve currency. It is already taking measures towards this by negotiating oil and other contracts in yuan (convertible into gold if wanted) rather than in dollars, which is another reason why it may be building its gold reserves as well.

Central Bank reserve increases are but one element in global gold demand, but an important one. With global production at the least plateauing (we’re not sure if it is actually reducing yet) and consumer demand likely to rise if only from population growth and general increases in personal incomes around the world, any continuing growth in global gold reserves will have a positive impact on supply/demand fundamentals. As we have mentioned before gold may be facing short term headwinds, but longer term prospects look to be ever increasingly positive.

20 Oct 2018

 

 

Your early MONDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED DOWN TO 6.9422/HUGE DEVALUATION FOR THE PAST FOUR WEEKS RESUMES/CHINESE COMING TO USA FOR TRADE TALKS IN NOVEMBER CANCELLED //OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.9454   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 104.41 POINTS OR 4.09%

. HANG SANG CLOSED UP 591.75 POINTS OR 2.32%

 

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 82.74 POINTS OR 0.37%

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED GREEN 

 

 

 

/USA dollar index RISES TO 95.80/Euro FALLS TO 1.1502

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. +.15/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 112.82/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 69.14 and Brent: 79.93

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN/ CHINESE YUAN:   ON SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE:  DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.47%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 3.42% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 1.69%

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 4.42

3k Gold at $1222.25 silver at:14.61   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 19/100 in roubles/dollar) 65.27

3m oil into the 69 dollar handle for WTI and 79 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 112.82DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9965 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1461 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to +0.47%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 3.19% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.37%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.6647

US Futures Rise After Chinese Stocks Soar; Italian

Bonds Boosted By Moody’s

After some initial weakness early in the Monday session which pushed S&P futures as low as 2,750 on Sunday night, below their Thursday lows, animal spirits were rekindled and S&P futures rebounded by almost 30 points from session lows…

… with global stocks and futures generally a sea of green…

… after Chinese stocks extended the torrid Friday rally, soaring by 4.1% and jumping the most in three years after Beijing doubled down its pledge of support for the economy and companies which included promises of tax cuts and coordinated official statements of support for stock markets.

A barrage of verbal interventions on Friday from authorities culminated with Chinese President Xi Jinping vowing “unwavering” support for the country’s private sector, which sent the Shanghai Composite back over 2,600 after the index touched a 4 year low below 2,500 late last week.

Chinese consumer stocks were among the best performers after the government released a detailed draft plan for personal income tax cuts over the weekend. China’s draft plan for sweeping personal tax cuts, together with a recent rise in the tax threshold, is a big positive for growth, writes Chang Shu, the Chief Asia Economist for Bloomberg Economics, adding that the move could buttress an economy suffering from tight funding conditions and provide a boost as a trade war intensifies. The news sent consumer staples surging with Yonghui Superstores jumping as much as 7.7%, most this year; Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery gains as much as 6.7%; Inner Mongolia Yili +5.8%; Moutai +2.5%, and so on.

Renewed Chinese optimism helped other Asian markets enjoy healthy gains, with Japan’s Nikkei rising 0.4%, while the MSCI Asia ex Japan rose 0.8%.

European stocks also opened higher after Moody’s kept Italy’s sovereign rating stable on Friday instead of cutting it to negative.  The decision fueled a rally in Italian government bonds and boosted shares in the country’s banks. “Moody’s opens the door for a euro bounce, while Chinese verbal support for the economy and markets has given us a risk-friendly mood to start the week,” Societe Generale said in a note to clients.

Optimism over the avoidance of an imminent downgrade to junk also sent Italian 10Y yields to two week lows, at least temporarily, before fading all gains after Italy submitted its response to the EU’s criticism of its 2019 budget proposal.

Specifically, Italy’s Treasury said the government is conscious its budget policy is not in line with EU’s stability pact and the decision was hard but necessary; adding it is committed to reducing structural deficit in direction of medium term objective from 2020. Rome said it would go off path of structural deficit adjustment in 2019 but does not intend to further expand deficit in the 2020-21 period, and added that its recognises different views with EU but will continue to have constructive and loyal talks with EU. Ultimately, if debt/GDP and deficit/GDP dies not evolve as planned, government is committed to take all intervene adopting all necessary measures; the response concluded that strengthening Italian economy is in the interest of the EU

Following the release of Italy’s response to the EU, BTPs pared gains in choppy trade prompting Bunds to touch a new session high. BTP futures drop to the low of the day at 120.77 before rallying after Italy says it’s ready to intervene to ensure that objectives are respected, while Finance Minister Tria says Italy is ready to act if debt and deficit ratios are not in line with goals.

Meanwhile, in European equities, the Stoxx Europe 600 was up only 0.1% after gaining as much as 0.7% in early trade, while Italy’s FTSE MIB pared gains to 0.6% after gaining as much as 2%. The FTSE Italia All-Share Banks Index was up 0.4% after surging 3.6%; as a reminder, the sector index hit its lowest since late 2016 on Friday, and is down about 35% since mid-May

Amid concerns of a renewed standoff between Italy and the EU, the euro gave up a gain and the dollar erased a drop, while the pound retreated as the U.K. blurred more red lines in the Brexit negotiations, heightening the danger to Prime Minister Theresa May.

Meanwhile, as Bloomberg notes, risks still abound across global markets, from tension surrounding the death of a Saudi journalist and the ongoing trade showdown between some of the world’s biggest economies to Italian budget fears and President Donald Trump’s ad hoc actions ahead of American midterm elections. Still, equities are attempting to bounce back after a miserable couple of weeks, and company results from the likes of Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Intel as well as U.S. growth data may provide a welcome distraction in the coming days.

Indeed, this will be the busiest week for corporate profits this earnings season with Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Caterpillar among the companies reporting. Helped by a strong economy and deep corporate tax cuts, S&P 500 earnings per share are expected to grow 22% in the third quarter, according to consensus data.

“The season on an absolute basis will likely wind up being ‘strong’ and the vast majority of companies will exceed consensus expectations,” said analysts at JPMorgan in a note. “However, headwinds are building at the margin in the form of U.S. dollar strength, supply chain disruptions owing to all the trade uncertainty, and rising costs. Even the mere hint of a turn in profit fundamentals would have severe ramifications.” The outlook for global growth in 2019 has dimmed for the first time, according to Reuters polls of economists, who cautioned that the U.S.-China trade war and tightening financial conditions would trigger the next downturn.

In the latest Brexit news, Prime Minister Theresa May will tell parliament that 95% of Britain’s divorce deal has now been settled. But she will repeat her opposition to the EU’s proposal for the land border with Northern Ireland and many see the risk of a leadership challenge being mounted.

In FX markets, an early advance in the euro lost steam as Italian bonds pared gains. Euro-area periphery debt was still bid after Moody’s kept Italy’s rating above junk with stable outlook, while the pound fell before U.K. Prime Minister May’s speech to parliament. The dollar was little changed, as were Treasuries; U.S. bonds traded choppy through Asian hours, initially gaining on Donald Trump’s plan to exit an arms control treaty with Russia, only to pare gains as a rally in Chinese stocks supported a swing in risk sentiment. The yen swung to a loss as the risk-off move was curbed while the Australia’s dollar fell to a one-week low after a by- election on the weekend looked set to deprive the federal government of its one-seat majority in parliament

In rate, the yield on 10-year Treasuries climbed one basis point to 3.20%. Germany’s 10-year yield also increased one basis point to 0.47 percent. Britain’s 10-year yield rose less than one basis point to 1.577 percent, while the spread of Italy’s 10-year bonds over Germany’s declined seven basis points to 2.9583%, the smallest premium in more than a week.

Saudi Arabia has remained in the spotlight after Riyadh called the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi a “huge and grave mistake” but sought to shield its powerful crown prince from the crisis. U.S. President Donald Trump and European leaders are pushing Saudi Arabia for more answers.

With concerns about the Saudi response to the Khashoggi murder lingering, most commodities advanced. Brent crude climbed to about $80 per barrel and WTI edged close to $70 with U.S. sanctions against Iran’s crude exports due to be implemented next month. Gold slipped. Emerging-market stocks jumped. The South African rand rallied before the country’s budget.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2,771.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 361.98
  • MXAP up 0.4% to 153.69
  • MXAPJ up 0.8% to 484.84
  • Nikkei up 0.4% to 22,614.82
  • Topix up 0.2% to 1,695.31
  • Hang Seng Index up 2.3% to 26,153.15
  • Shanghai Composite up 4.1% to 2,654.88
  • Sensex up 0.3% to 34,412.26
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.6% to 5,904.94
  • Kospi up 0.3% to 2,161.71
  • German 10Y yield unchanged at 0.461%
  • Euro up 0.03% to $1.1517
  • Brent Futures up 0.6% to $80.29/bbl
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 19.8 bps to 3.111%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 4.5 bps to 1.69%
  • Brent Futures up 0.6% to $80.29/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,223.23
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.03% to 95.68

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow accused China of doing “nothing” to defuse trade tensions ahead of a likely meeting between President Trump and President Xi Jinping at the G-20 in Argentina next month, the Financial Times reported
  • Trump has promised a new middle-income tax cut plan to land days before the mid-term election, a move aimed at boosting his party’s chances of holding its Congressional majorities — yet Republican tax policy-makers know nothing about it
  • Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is open to changing how the U.S. determines which nations are gaming their currencies, a move that could give Trump the chance to officially brand China an exchange-rate manipulator
  • Italy’s populist coalition hinted that it may eventually be prepared to temper its budget for next year as the European Union demands an explanation of its deficit plans
  • As impending U.S. sanctions curb Iranian exports, Iraq has quietly increased shipments to Asia, Europe and the Mediterranean region to offset Iran’s missing barrels
  • Hedge funds cut bets on rising West Texas Intermediate crude prices for a sixth straight week, to the lowest since October 2017
  • Saudi Arabia’s evolving account of the death of journalist Jamal Khashoggi elicited skepticism from officials in the U.S. and its allies weighing how to respond. France demanded more information, while Germany put arms sales to the oil-rich nation on hold

Asian equity markets traded mostly higher as a rally in Chinese stocks helped most the regional bourses shrug-off the
cautious open. ASX 200 (-0.58%) and Nikkei 225 (+0.37%) were both initially lower with Australia dampened by political
uncertainty as PM Morrison’s governing coalition is on track to lose its 1-seat parliamentary majority following a by election in
eastern Sydney, while the early downbeat tone was also attributed to geopolitical concerns after Trump announced the US would
leave the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. However, most of the losses in the region were later pared as the Shanghai
Comp. (+4.09%) surged on a rebound from 4-year lows which inspired the Hang Seng (+2.32%), while officials were also
conducive to the risk sentiment in which President Xi reiterated unwavering commitment to the private sector, China released its
draft of tax cuts and the PBoC announced a liquidity injection of CNY 120bln. Finally, 10yr JGBs were amid the turnaround in
sentiment for the region and lack of BoJ presence in the market today. China released draft of tax cuts which include lower cost of housing, education and health to boost consumption effective from start.
of 2019.

Top Asian News

  • A Big Secret in Japan Debt Market Is Getting Harder to Keep
  • China’s $195 Billion Debt Splurge Has Less Bang Than You Think
  • BOJ Signals Financial System Able to Withstand Easing for Now
  • Thanks to the Trade War, Southeast Asia Has an Investment Boom

Major European indices are all in the green, with the exception of the AEX (-0.1%) which has been dragged down by Phillips (-5.5%) amid a miss on their earnings. The FTSE MIB leads the gains following a Moody’s Italy downgrade to one level above junk, which was less than some had anticipated. Italian banks, such as Intesa Sanpaolo (+1.0%) are supported a result of this; however, the index is being led by gains in Fiat Chrysler (+5.0%) after the confirmation of their Magnetti Marelli unit sale to KKR for EUR 6.2bln. Sectors are mostly in positive territory, with the exception of healthcare and energy. Consumer discretionary and financials are some of the best performers with the former supported by car names moving sympathy to Fiat Chrysler, while the latter is buoyed by Italian banks after the FTSE MIB Banking Index opened higher by over 3%. In terms of individual equities the aforementioned Phillips are at the foot of the Stoxx 600. Danone (-1.3%) are lower after the CEO stated that they are not going to bid for Horlicks. Lloyds Banking Group (+2.0%) are in the green following the Co’s plans to buy back around GDP 2bln of shares in 2019.

Top European News

  • U.K. Softens Brexit Red Line as May Faces Lawmaker Backlash
  • Philips Tumbles on Disappointing Profit, Growth at Health Unit
  • Sweden’s Government Talks Reach a Record With No End in Sight
  • Euro Front-End Demand for Wings Drops on Italy Before ECB Meet
  • Investors Aren’t Eager to Short-Sell Mining Equities, Citi Says

In FX, the Euro has been encouraged by events in Rome, and specifically the fact that Italy escaped a deeper ratings cut by Moody’s to stay one rung above junk. BTPs and Italian stocks have rallied in response or rather in relief, and Eur/Usd is back above 1.1500 as a result, albeit off best levels having faded around 1.1550 and clearing its 10 DMA at 1.1527 along the way. CAD/CHF/GBP/NZD – All narrowly mixed vs the Greenback, as the DXY pivots 95.500 within a relatively tight 95.756-469 range, and the Loonie straddles 1.3100 ahead of Canadian wholesale trade data and then the BoC policy meeting on Thursday with a 25 bp hike pretty much factored in. The Franc is also anchored and confined around 0.9950, while Cable nudged higher alongside Eur/Usd earlier, but topped out ahead of 1.3100 and last Friday’s 1.3105 high to sit just above 1.3050, awaiting more from UK PM May on Brexit. The Kiwi has drifted back below 0.6600 having lost some pre-weekend event risk premium. AUD/JPY – Both underperforming vs G10 counterparts, the former on domestic political developments as the Government lost its slender majority by virtue of failing to retain its seat at the Sydney by-election. However, Aud/Usd is just holding above 0.7100 in wake of a short squeeze in Chinese equities overnight, which in contrast has weighed on the Jpy as a safe-haven proxy, with Usd/Jpy climbing above a key 112.74 Fib towards 112.90 vs sub-112.50 at the low. EM – Early Monday/week outperformance for the Rand, as Usd/Zar trade under 14.3000 ahead of Wednesday’s MTBS amidst press reports noting improved budget revenues relative to 2017 and more on track with forecasts. Elsewhere, the Rouble is outpacing the Lira in the run up to this week’s CBR and CBT meetings, with the Rub deriving some support from a rebound in Brent to just over Usd 80/brl.

In commodities, both WTI and Brent are easing off intra-day highs with the former hovering around USD 69.50/bbl while the latter retests USD 80.00/bbl to the downside. Early in the session, Saudi Energy Minister Al-Falih emerged stating the kingdom has no intentions to use oil as a weapon, while he added he cannot guarantee prices won’t rise above USD 100/bbl. Elsewhere, on Friday the Baker Hughes rig count showed an additional 4 oil rigs in operations, rising to the highest figure since March 2015, applying downward pressure on prices. Gold trades lower as the yellow metal mirrors moves in the dollar, albeit still at levels close to it’s 2 month peak. In terms of metals China’s winter anti-pollution restrictions are beginning to take an effect with this expected to boost the demand for high grade iron ore as producers priorities the best quality iron, lowering the overall market supply of iron ore, with prices currently at USD 71/tonne. Separately, China has introduced a system which allows for faster customs clearance for some imported ores, including iron ore which China are the world’s biggest importer of. Copper prices have continued to rise following a pledge from China’s central bank that it would support firms which have liquidity problems.

Iranian Energy Minister Zenganeh said that Saudi Arabia and Russia’s crude output are near their highest ever levels and added that Saudi Arabia and Russia have no spare oil capacity. Saudi Energy Minister Al-Falih said he cannot guarantee oil prices will not rise above USD 100/bbl and Saudi production is likely to increase in the near future to 11mln BPD, adding new OPEC+ oil agreement might be signed on Dec 7th . He added if 3mln BPD of oil supplies disappear in 2019, Saudi cannot cover this volume and will have to use reserves.

It’s a very quiet start to the week: in Europe, we get the Euro-area’s 2017 government debt to GDP ratio. In the US, we get the September Chicago Fed National activity index.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. 0.2, prior 0.2

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

By the time you read this I’ll be in my surgical gown ready for another knee operation – my third in 3 and a half years. This time it’s on my “good” knee due to a torn meniscus. My advice to all readers is if you take up skiing in your 30s please make sure you’re not an overconfident, speed hungry person who doesn’t listen to anyone when they tell you skiing is dangerous and to slow down. Markets are also unlikely to slow down much this week even if it is half-term here in the UK but let’s hope they don’t end up in the operating theatre by the end of the week. Indeed it’s another busy week full of interesting events including an ECB meeting (Thu) , S&P’s review of Italy’s sovereign ratings (Fri) after Moody’s completed theirs late on Friday (see below), the advance Q3 GDP release in the US (Fri), and the preliminary October PMIs in Europe and the US (Wed).

In addition, Saudi Arabia will hold its troubled “Davos in the Desert” conference (Tue) with global political tensions high. Earnings releases also pick up pace during the week on both sides of the pond. Given that Q3 saw Turkey and Italy in some turmoil, European banks may be the earnings highlight this week, especially as they start the season at 2-year lows not helped by the Spanish banking woes from last week (see below).

Staying in Europe, the ECB meet on Thursday. Although policy rates are expected to be left unchanged, the meeting is likely to be closely watched for more colour on how the ECB will reinvest maturing QE proceeds post the likely end of QE in December this year. Focus will also be on Draghi’s comments on Italy. It’s hard to imagine the ECB will lower the pressure on Italy but they are also unlikely to want to escalate tension further so expect some element of diplomacy.

Interestingly late on Friday Moody’s decided to leave Italy’s rating at stable after a 1-notch downgrade to Baa3. If there’s one thing the outlook isn’t for Italy at the moment it’s stable but rating agencies are unlikely to want to create a vicious circle. With S&P opining on Friday it’s possible we’ll see a similar response for a similar reason. Italy rallied strongly on Friday (10yr BTPs -20bps, 24.6bps tighter to Bunds) before Moody’s decision which came after the US close. There was some talk late in the session on Friday (via the Italian newspaper Foglio) that the deficit could be lowered to 2.1% for 2019, which would be a substantial de- escalation. However the weekend mood music from the Government doesn’t suggest this is about to happen. Indeed the Government are expected to respond to the EC today in a letter confirming the 2.4% deficit target but according to the weekend press in Italy explain that its a temporary measure to kick start the economy. Interestingly over the weekend an Ipsos survey published by the Corriere della Sera newspaper indicated that 59% of Italians back the Government’s deficit target. The survey also found that 55% believe that higher government debt is needed to stimulate the economy. After years of very weak growth and continued austerity you can’t blame the voters for wanting something different whether it eventually works or not. Europe needs to tread very carefully as it responds.

This morning in Asia, markets are off to a positive start with China’s Shanghai Comp (+4.17%; highest daily gain since March 2016), CSI 300 (+4.40%) and Shenzhen Comp (+4.96%) leading the way after China’s government announced tax cuts over weekend (more on this below). In the meantime, the Nikkei (+0.53%), Hang Seng (+2.40%) and Kospi (+0.18%) are also up along with most Asian markets.

So as discussed above the Chinese government announced details of a personal income tax cut on Saturday. This comes as a positive surprise for our economists. They estimate the size of the tax cut may be RMB 500-600bn (0.5% of GDP) in 2019, including RMB 320bn from the changes of tax brackets and RMB 200-300bn from new tax allowances. It could boost retail sales by about 1% if people spend 70% of tax savings on consumption. DB believe this is the beginning of a series of tax cuts, with VAT and corporate income tax potentially the next targets. These measures would help to offset the downside risks from the trade war, and keep growth in 2019 above 6%. It reinforces DB’s view that China’s current account surplus will turn into a deficit and the RMB will depreciate to 7.4 against the US dollar in 2019. See the link here for more.

On Brexit, the UK PM May is likely to tell the British lawmakers today that “95% of the Withdrawal Agreement and its protocols are now settled,” according to remarks mailed by her office highlighting that headway’s been made over the past three weeks on topics including military bases in Cyprus, arrangements for Gibraltar, and dispute resolution with the EU after Brexit. In the meantime, Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab hinted on Sunday that the UK could provide an alternative to fixed time limited Irish “backstop” arrangements and showing some signs of flexibility over the issue as the EU wants the “backstop” arrangement to be open ended. This could pose fresh leadership challenges for UK PM May with the weekend press suggesting a potential challenge continues to bubble up in the background.

Tomorrow could be an interesting day in geopolitics as Mr Erdogan has suggested he will reveal Turkey’s interpretation of the events surrounding journalist Khashoggi death. This coincides with the start of the Saudi investment conference which is going to be plagued by mass international absenteeism. So all eyes on Turkey tomorrow as the current Saudi explanation for the death has not been particularly well received by the world’s media and politicians.

Reviewing last week now before we look at the week ahead. The S&P 500 eked out a +0.02% gain last week (-0.04% on Friday), but under the surface, investors continued to rotate into defensive sectors. The best performing sectors on the week were consumer staples, real estate, and utilities, while tech continued to be pressured. The FANGs shed -1.81% (-0.96% Friday), despite very strong earnings from Netflix and positive headlines about a potential IPO by Uber, which briefly supported the sector. The DOW gained +0.41% (+0.26% Friday) and the NASDAQ retreated -0.70% (-0.12% Friday). Chinese equities saw a wild ride with the Shanghai Comp falling -2.17% on the week but rising +2.58% on Friday as verbal intervention started before the weekend’s tax cuts added to this. Bonds sold off again, with two-year Treasury yields touching a new decade high, rising +5.1bps (+3.0bps Friday) to 2.90%. Ten-year Treasury yields rose +3.1bps (+1.4bps Friday), while Bunds rallied -5.7bps (+4.4bps Friday) amid the volatility in Italy (see below). The STOXX 600 gained +0.64% (-0.12% Friday), with German equities outperforming (DAX +0.26% on the week, -0.31% Friday), though Euro banks fell to a new two-year low, trading -2.29% on the week (-0.57% Friday), with Spanish banks leading losses (more below). Emerging markets were mixed, as equities lost -1.54% (+0.94% Friday) but currencies gained +0.45% (+0.02% Friday), and the VIX fell 1.4pts on the week (-0.17pts Friday) but remains elevated relative to the recent past at 19.89.

Spanish bonds underperformed last week, with 10-year yields rising +5.9bps (+0.7bps Friday) despite the 20bps rally in Italy. Spanish banks shed -2.91% (+0.38% Friday). A court ruling will shift a mortgage tax away from consumers, who used to pay it, onto banks, who will now have to pay it. The court may revisit the decisions, but for now it represents a significant surprise and a downside risk for the sector, since borrowers would be entitled to seek claims on up to 1.2 trillion euros of mortgages sold over the last 15 years, which could cost the system up to 24 billion euros.

Corporate earnings were mixed on the week, though they remain strong overall this season as we expected. With 17% of S&P 500 companies having reported, sales have grown +7.4% yoy and earnings are up +21.3% yoy. That’s 0.5% and 4.6% better than consensus for revenue and profits, respectively. Last week, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley beat expectations and saw their share prices rally +6.09% and +6.91%, while Bank of America was a bit soft and fell -0.53% on the week. Shipping firm CSX reported healthy volumes, signaling strong macro momentum.

It’s a very quiet start to the week. In Europe, we get the Euro-area’s 2017 government debt to GDP ratio. In the US, we get the September Chicago Fed National activity index.

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i) MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 104.41 POINTS OR 4.09% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 591.75 POINTS OR 2.32% //The Nikkei closed UP 82.74 OR 0.37%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.61%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.9422 AS POBC RESUMES  ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER CANCELLED/Oil DOWN to 69.14 dollars per barrel for WTI and 79.93 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED MIXED///.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED SLIGHTLY DOWN AT 6.9422 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED SLIGHTLY DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9454: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS STOPPED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER  AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

North Korea/South Korea/USA/China

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

 
END

3C CHINA

China’s economy is not crashing and as Snider points out:  it is worse than that because there is no growth coming from this nation.  This would be very scary for the rest of the world as China is the engine for global growth

(Jeffrey Snider/Alhambra Investments partners)

Alhambra: China’s Economy Is Not Crashing, It’s Worse Than That

Authored by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investment Partners,

China’s economy is not crashing. Hyperbole works both ways. Last year and this, the smallest increment above a prior number was broadcast out as the greatest thing ever (US wage growth in particular), irrefutable proof of globally synchronized growth. Now that that’s over with, largely, there will be a tendency toward the other extreme.

The latest Chinese economic statistics are for several of them the lowest in some time. Starting with real GDP, at just 6.5% in Q3 2018 it’s the slowest pace since the first quarter of 2009. That’s not good especially for a statistic of such dubious practices often specifically crafted to be the best it can be.

What that suggests is not immediate catastrophe, offering instead more complete confirmation that this major economy is slowing. Again. This is the real story in China and therefore for everywhere else.

In other words, the real danger presented by these statistics is not imminent crash but rather the total disappearance of any upside potential. Even during 2017, the narrative about globally synchronized growth continued as a future property. The global economy in that year was clearly better than it was during the worldwide downturn 2015-16, easy comparison, and that was expected only as the first step toward meaningful acceleration and then recovery.

Where Economists and central bankers jumped the gun was in assuming that 2017’s improvement was the only evidence they needed for those complete expectations. As it has turned out, as it always turns out, changing from minus to plus signs is a necessary condition for better days but not by itself a sufficient one.

Acceleration requires momentum among other factors, and momentum is derived from conviction. The best days of 2017 never really had that, the absence perhaps clearest in China (particularly the hollow rebound of CNY which “somehow” lacked “capital inflows”).

Everyone kept waiting for the Chinese to zoom on ahead and bring the whole up with them. Meanwhile, in China they kept waiting for the rest of the world to take the lead so as to pull them up out of their funk. That’s been the thing about “global growth” since 2011, everyone expects that someone else will solve their economic problems for them. Momentum will arrive, you see, it’ll come from somewhere else.

Without a clear path to that next step toward recovery, doubts multiply rather than abate. What was for a time mild opportunity, reflation, sinks back toward the malaise of liquidity risks that over time can only return to self-reinforcing.

This is what’s significant about China’s numbers today. They practically declare reflation dead and gone. There is no upside left, what you saw in 2017 was the best of it – and it wasn’t very good. It was, in honest analysis, not really that much better than 2016 at all; certainly less than the prior peak.

The rest of the statistics bear this out. Nominal GDP, perhaps a more appropriate measure of China’s economic conditions, decelerated yet again in Q3. Year-over-year, it rose just 9.6%, down from 9.8% in Q2 and a peak of 11.7% set way back in Q1 2017. The more time passes without clear acceleration, the more it has to sink in (everywhere but Washington DC) that this really is a rising dollar “L.”

The world economy has never recovered from the 2011 eurodollar crisis (squeeze). The system broke in August 2007, and created all sorts of devastation immediately thereafter. But for a time in 2010 and the first half of 2011 it looked like recovery was at least possible if unusually weak.

Economists, incapable of appreciating the global monetary system for their modern practice of neglect, mistook 2011 for a lack of sufficient time; they crafted monetary policies (with no money in them) so as to buy the financial system enough of it thinking that would be the magic elixir.

Instead, time has proven beyond all doubt that 2011 was the last stand for recovery. It just isn’t possible so long as the global reserve currency, the eurodollar not dollar, remains dysfunctional. There can never be enough momentum to escape, opportunity surrendered by this neglect.

The more Chinese statistics in particular show this to be true the more it will spread and eventually become self-reinforcing (again). In certain places, it may have already.

The rest of the data follows along this way; not crashing but what may be worse as the end of any upside.

Chinese Industrial Production rose just 5.8% year-over-year in September, the first month below 6% in two and a half years going all the way back to the trough of the last downturn in February 2016. As noted at the outset, there can be an inclination to make more out of that comparison when, for now, it simply confirms there just isn’t any recovery.

Along those lines, it stands in sharp contrast to sentiment which even in China had gotten way ahead of economic reality. It’s another element of 2017 and globally synchronized growth that is being slowly, steadily undone in 2018. Sentiment has proved a worthless indicator, and well beyond the other side of the Pacific Ocean.

Retail sales was practically the lone bright spot, which merely means there wasn’t as much slowing as there had been. Rising 9.2% in September, it was the fastest pace in five months, but still materially less than the 10%+ rate that prevailed 2015 forward.

Fixed asset investment managed to tick a little higher last month as private capex remained steady while government investment rebounded slightly. Overall, FAI was up 5.4% on an accumulated basis (YTD) compared to August’s record low 5.3%. Private FAI also on an accumulated basis stayed at 8.7%. State-owned FAI gained 1.2% last month compared to 1.1% the month before.

China’s economy is not crashing. However, it is slowing and from an already weakened level. The Chinese system did not actually recover from the last downturn despite now three years distance. What these numbers show is that, like the eurodollar system, there is now very little chance that it ever will. It may not seem like much compared to a full-blown breakdown, but pretty conclusive evidence for a worldwide, multi-year (decade?) “L” should be terrifying.

A world without opportunity is a far more dangerous one than a world only temporarily stripped of it. The V can be scary but only on the way down. The L is, well, I think we’re going to find out.

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

ITALY/EU

Quite a commentary today from GEFIRA, our resident experts on European affairs especially on Italy. Today, the European Financial establishment just declared war on Italy as Dijsselbloem on the CNBC interview suggested to Italy that there will not be a bailout and that Italy needs a bail in and knock off a huge number of mom and pop depositors.  This would be act of war in Italy

(courtesy GEFIRA)

 

The European Financial Establishment Just Declared War On Italy

Via GEFIRA,

This week in a CNBC interview Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the former Dutch minister of finance who served as the President of the Eurogroup, declared war on the Italian government.

The European financial establishment is prepared to destroy the banking system and cause the Italian economy to implode. Like a Mafia boss, Dijsselbloem warned that Italy could run into trouble if it does not comply with Brussels’ directives. Of course, his statement was cloaked in diplomatic language:

If the Italian crisis becomes a major crisis, it will mainly implode into the Italian economy … as opposed to spreading around Europe,” he said. 

“Because of the way that the Italian economy and the Italian banks are financed, it’s going to be an implosion rather than an explosion.”

For a man of this format it is unusual to publicly expose Italy as a state in a weak negotiating position or try to act as a scaremonger. We have never seen anything remotely like that, so we think that the utterance could only serve the purpose of giving the green light to the financial markets to orchestrate an attack on Italian bonds so as to drive Italian yield up.

“And there is gonna be a role for the markets, I mean if you look at what Italy needs in funding next year alone we are talking about over 250 billion Euro, refinancing part of the stock of their debt and also, of course, these new spending plans. So markets will really have to look at that very critically.”

He reminded the Italian government that Italian banks are a sitting target for the European financial authorities. In order to destabilize a country’s economy, one must break its backbone i.e. banks.

“There will also have to be a role for the Banking authority, banking supervisor to look what this does to the Italian banks. We have already seen their stock valuation are going down Mr Dijsselbloem said with a smile.

Under the leadership of Jeroen Dijsselbleom, Greece was cut off from TARGET 2, the European payment system, so that not a single euro could be transferred abroad for a long time . Italy is not comparable to Greece, though. The state has had a trade balance surplus for years and is in better shape than France. Because Italy’s exports exceed its imports, the country is not dependent on foreign financing for its needs. The former President of the Eurogroup does not want his Brussels colleagues to have second thoughts, so he used the CBNC interview to let them know they have to proceed.

“Looking at what (Italian officials) have put on the table, the commission really has no option than to send it back, which — by the way — is not the end of the process, but the start of the process,”

“It’s pretty worrisome, there’s going to be confrontation and I think the commission has no choice then to accept that confrontation and to take it,”

This declaration of war was triggered by the Italian budget proposal. The Italian budget deficit is structural, and the state debt amounts to 130% of GDP. The Italian economy is comparable to that of Japan. Both are characterised by shrinking internal consumption and an export surplus. Just like Japan, Italy has a declining population. Demand for real estate and consumer goods is falling, so industrial production will have to eventually decelerate.

The Italian government, supported by the population, refuses to submit to the European financial masters. A shrinking population and increasing public debt are inevitable and need not be a problem as long as the country produces enough to pay for its imports. It is only because the Italians do not have their currency that they are forced to obey their masters in Brussels and the bankers in Frankfurt. The introduction of a parallel currency and a withdrawal from the euro seems a logical solution and is not historically unique. Czechnia and Slovakia, the former Russian and Yugoslav republics each had once a currency union, and as these countries went their separate ways, so did separate currencies emerge and replaced the old ones.

Jeroen Dijsselbloem told CNBC that the only conceivable solution for Italy is money from the European support fund, although it is clear that this fund cannot solve the problems. In the end, Jeroen Dijsselbloem ventured a prediction that there won’t be any bailout for Italy because “politically and financially it won’t happen.

“I don’t see support around the euro zone to say, ‘These guys are completely off track — let’s help them,’” he said, adding thata bailout of Italy would also “wipe out” the European Stability Mechanism fund within two years.” 

By mentioning only one possible solution, the European banker is sending a signal to Rome that no alternative, such as the return to the lira, will be discussed.

Dijsselbloem’s statement on CNBC is an ultimatum delivered to his Italian colleagues. In Cyprus, hundreds of retail investors lost their money under Dijselbloem’s authority. Much the same seems to be the case now. The ECB wants Rome to use the money of little retail investors such as pensioners to save the Italian banks. Jeroen Dijselbloem is known for such bail-in templates and he even has the nerve to warn the Italian citizens:

“The only way to get out of this is for Italy to realize that (the destruction of the Italian economy), the Italian retail customers and the voters to understand that (the collapse of the banks), and then the correction will hopefully start coming from inside.”

We wonder what correction he has in mind. Democracy has run its course, the voters have already decided, and according to the polls they are perfectly happy with the Italian deputy minister Mateo Salvini, whose popularity is only growing.

Was the former Dutch minister signalling that the European authorities would not have anything against a coup d’état in Rome? Or was he suggesting that somebody do away with Mateo Salvini?

END

Monday morning: ITALY

Italy admits to the deficit breach but refuses to budge

(courtesy zerohedge)

Italy Responds To EU Commission, Admits Deficit Breach But Refuses To Budge

Initial relief over a favorable Moody’s downgrade of Italy, which pushed the rating just one notch above junk but kept the outlook stable (which in turn prompted the following sarcastic remark from Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid “If there’s one thing the outlook isn’t for Italy at the moment it’s stable but rating agencies are unlikely to want to create a vicious circle”) faded after Italy’s populist government promised it won’t let its budget deficit widen further than currently planned and called for dialogue with the European Union to address their differences.

In its letter response to the European Commission published Monday and seen by Bloomberg, Italy acknowledged Europe’s concerns about the budget, but refused to change the proposed plan.

Finance Minister Giovanni Tria said the government is ready to act to ensure it doesn’t exceed the 2.4% target for 2019, noting that he’s aware that his spending plans don’t comply with EU rules and he wants “constructive” talks with officials in Brussels.

The decision to increase spending was “difficult though necessary,” Tria said in his letter. He cited slow economic growth and the “difficult economic situation the poorest segments of the Italian society are facing.”

Seeking to placate Brussels, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, speaking in Rome, said the deficit target should be seen as an upper limit and it could still be narrower.

“We can still reassess during the budget implementation whether to contain the target so we don’t necessarily need to reach that 2.4%, for sure we won’t exceed it” Cointe said even as he refused to budge from the controversial target which assures that Italy remains on collision course with the EU.

As Bloomberg notes, Italy’s PM and finmin have both come under fire from officials and investors since bowing to pressure from Italy’s coalition heavyweights Matteo Salvini and Luigi Di Maio to allocate resources to their key election promises: tax cuts, more benefits spending, and a lower retirement age. The Commission expressed “serious concern” about Italy’s budget plans in a letter on Thursday.

Interestingly over the weekend an Ipsos survey published by the Corriere della Sera newspaper indicated that 59% of Italians back the Government’s deficit target. The survey also found that 55% believe that higher government debt is needed to stimulate the economy. As Deutsche Bank noted, after years of very weak growth and continued austerity “you can’t blame the voters for wanting something different whether it eventually works or not. Europe needs to tread very carefully as it responds.”

And while we await Europe’s response to Italy’s response, Italian bonds faded initial gains, with the spread over German 10-year yields narrowing by 6 basis points to 296. The gap reached a five-year high of 341 bps during trading on Friday.

Sentiment was dented after Tria offered no indication that he plans to back down from the headline spending targets, paving the way for the EU to take the unprecedented step of demanding revisions. EU commissioners will discuss the letter response at a meeting in Strasbourg Tuesday, commission spokesman Margaritis Schinastold reporters in Brussels.

“While recognizing the divergence of the respective evaluations, the Italian government will remain in a constructive and fair dialogue,” Tria added. “The government is confident it can get investment and GDP growth moving again and that the recent rise in the government bond yields will be reabsorbed as the investors learn about all the details of the measures in the budget law.”

He added that after 2019 the government doesn’t intend to raise the structural budget deficit — adjusted to take account of the economic cycle and one-time items.

At the same time, Italian Prime Minister Conte signaled that Italy may not implement some of its most controversial spending plans until later next year, which could potentially lead to a narrower deficit. While the move is unlikely to appease the EU Commission, it was a sign that the government in Rome is looking at ways to reach a face-saving compromise.

And now attention turns to Brussels, where as Jim Reid said overnight, “Europe needs to tread very carefully as it responds” with the danger of further alienating the Italian population from the European “dream” looming.

END

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

SAUDI ARABIA
Saudi Arabia claims that he died of the chokehold after undergoing a fist fight.  Interesting odds 15 to one !!
(courtesy zerohedge)

Saudis Admit Khashoggi Killed At Consulate “In Fist-Fight”, King Salman Fires 5 Top Officials

Update: The White House has issue a statement:

Sarah Sanders

@PressSec

Statement on Saudi Arabia Investigation:

And Democrat Congressman Schiff has piped in, claiming “the Saudi report of Khashoggi is not credible.”

*  *  *

Saudi Arabia confirmed tonight that Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi was killed at its consulate in Istanbul on 2 October.

In a statement put out on Saudi state television, citing an initial investigation by Saudi prosecutors, SPA said that:

“an argument erupted between him [Khashoggi] and others whom he met in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul leading to a fistfight which led to his death.”

Ali Shihabi

@aliShihabi

The details of what happened at consulate are vague but I understand more details will come out this weekend.

Ali Shihabi

@aliShihabi

IMPORTANT: I understand from a senior Saudi source that Jamal Khashoggi died from a chokehold during a physical altercation, not a fist fight which was mistranslated by foreign media.

Prosecutors said the investigation was still ongoing and that 18 people, all Saudi nationals, had so far been arrested, SPA reported.

“The Kingdom expresses its deep regret at the painful developments that have taken place and stresses the commitment of the authorities in the Kingdom to bring the facts to the public,” the statement said.

Additionally, Saudi Arabia’s King Salman has removed a key royal adviser and a senior intelligence official..

King Salman issued an order to remove Saud al-Qahtani, an adviser to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, according to the state-run Ikhbariya television.

The monarch also relieved deputy intelligence chief Gen. Ahmed al-Assiri.

This follows the narrative reported by The New York Times on Thursday that Riyadh is looking to blame Assiri for the purported murder of Khashoggi in an effort to shield Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman from the blame.

Saudi King Salman has also ordered the formation of ministerial committee led by crown prince Mohammad bin Salman to restructure the general intelligence agency.

As Ali Shihabi, Founder, The Arabia Foundation, tweets:

“The removal of two top officials, a cabinet ranking, very powerful and close advisor of MBS and the Deputy Head of Foreign intelligence + 4 other Generals in foreign intelligence (virtually its whole top leadership) cannot be written off as a cover up. This is unprecedented.”

This is not saying “rogue killers” but implicating virtually the whole top leadership of foreign intelligence. They carried out a mission that went sour very quickly and tried to cover it up initially. Bad news travels slowly to the top.”

We await President Trump’s “very severe consequences.”

end
Anger is spreading throughout the globe on the Saudi response.  Turkey responds that they will never allow a cover up of the Khashoggi murder.
(courtesy zerohedge)

Global Anger Boils Over Saudi Response: “We Will

Never Allow A Cover-Up Of Khashoggi Murder”

One day after Saudi Arabia admitted that WaPo journalist and US resident Jamal Khashoggi was killed at the Saudi consulate, a senior official in Turkey’s ruling party responded on Saturday saying that Turkey will “never allow a cover-up” of the Khashoggi killing, reflecting international skepticism over the official Saudi account released late on Friday that the writer died during a “fistfight.”

Saudi Embassy

@SaudiEmbassyUSA

Saudi Public Prosecutor: Preliminary Investigations into Case of Citizen Jamal Khashoggi Show Death. https://www.saudiembassy.net/news/saudi-public-prosecutor-preliminary-investigations-case-citizen-jamal-khashoggi-show-death 

The Turkish response was one of many critical reactions to the Saudi announcement of the writer’s violent death, indicating the kingdom’s efforts to defuse a scandal that has gripped the world were not only falling short, but likely to provoke even further scrutiny. U.S. President Donald Trump, however, was an exception. Asked late on Friday whether he thought the Saudi explanation was credible, he replied: “I do. I do.”

Meanwhile, despite widespread outrage over the killing of the columnist for The Washington Post, it was still unclear to what extent the top leadership of Saudi Arabia, including crown prince Mohammed bin Salman, the 33-year-old crown prince – whose early promises of sweeping reform are being eclipsed by concerns that he is an impulsive, even sinister figure – would be held accountable for what human rights activists describe as an extrajudicial killing by Saudi agents.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin SalmanAdding pressure for a full blown probe, the editorial board of The Washington Post said that the only way to find out what happened to its reporter, would be through an international investigation led by a U.N.-appointed panel. Saudi Arabia’s “latest version asks us to believe that Mr. Khashoggi died after becoming engaged in a “brawl” with officials who had been sent to meet him. His body, Saudi officials told several journalists, was handed over to a “local collaborator” for disposal,” it said, while also criticizing Trump for allegedly trying to help top Saudi leaders escape “meaningful accountability.”

On Saturday, the Saudis defied calls for a probe when Saudi Arabia’s judiciary said it enjoys full autonomy to deal with the case of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, the Kingdom’s Justice Minister Waleed Al-Samaani said in a statement issued by state news agency SPA on Saturday.

Saudi Arabia’s Justice Minister Waleed Al-SamaaniHe added that the Khashoggi case took place on Saudi sovereign territory and it will be looked at by Saudi courts when all procedures are complete.

The justice minister explained that the directives and decisions ordered by King Salman, in the wake of the unfortunate and tragic event that led to Khashoggi’s death, are a continuation of the Kingdom’s approach to “establish the foundations of justice, according to our tolerant law, and the leadership’s keenness to protect the safety of all its citizens and care for them wherever they are.”

Al-Samaani added that the Kingdom is steadfast in its justice and will not be destabilized by any hostile behaviors, including reckless media outlets that lack professionalism and credibility.

In lieu of an international investigation, Saudi Arabia said 18 Saudi suspects were in custody and intelligence officials had been fired. But, as the AP notes, critics claim the complex scheme that led to Khashoggi’s death could not have occurred without the knowledge of the Crown Prince, who according to unconfirmed reports may be on his way out with the Saudi royal family considering his replacement, with his much less ambitious and more predictable brother, the Saudi Ambassador to the US, Prince Khalid bin Salman.

Saudi Ambassador to the U.S. Prince Khalid bin Salman. He was recalled last week after Jamal Khashoggi’s disappearanceThe Saudi narrative of Khashoggi’s death, which reportedly occurred in a “brawl” following discussions with visiting officials in the consulate, contrasts with Turkish pro-government media reports that a Saudi hit squad, including an autopsy expert, traveled to Istanbul to kill Khashoggi and dispose of his body, which has not yet been found.

“It’s not possible for the Saudi administration to wiggle itself out of this crime if it’s confirmed,” said Numan Kurtulmus, deputy head of Turkey’s Justice and Development Party. He also said Turkey would share its evidence of Khashoggi’s killing with the world and that a “conclusive result” of the investigation is close. Another Turkish ruling party official also criticized Saudi Arabia, saying the kingdom should have given its explanation “before the situation reached this point.”

The irony here is that suddenly it is Turkey – which in the aftermath of the 2016 “attempted coup” on president Erdogan detained and imprisoned thousands of public servants who were allegedly working for the “shadow state” without due process – that has become the beacon of judicial and civil rights purity.

That said, the Saudi response was botched from the start: the oil-rich kingdom initially denied any knowledge of the fate of Khashoggi, who disappeared after entering its consulate. The overnight admission that the writer died in the consulate came in Saudi state media more than two weeks after Khashoggi, 59, entered the building for paperwork required to marry his Turkish fiancée and never came out. The kingdom has described assertions in Turkish media leaks, based on purported audio recordings that Khashoggi was tortured, killed and dismembered inside the consulate, as “baseless.”

“God have mercy on you my love Jamal, and may you rest in Paradise,” Khashoggi’s fiancée, Hatice Cengiz, tweeted following the Saudi announcements.

Hatice Cengiz / خديجة@mercan_resifi

وَإِذْ قَتَلْتُمْ نَفْسًا فَادَّارَأْتُمْ فِيهَا ۖ وَاللَّهُ مُخْرِجٌ مَّا كُنتُمْ تَكْتُمُونَ
البقرة (72)
رحمك الله يا حبيبي جمال وجعل مثواك الفردوس الأعلى مع سيد الشهداء حمزة#السعودية_قتلت_خاشقجي#شهيد_الكلمة#الشهيد_جمال_خاشقجي#ولكم_في_القصاص_حياة#أين_جسد_الشهيد_خاشقجي

Meanwhile, in firing officials close to “progressive” Prince Mohammed, Riyadh stopped short of implicating the heir-apparent of the world’s largest oil exporter and the de facto head of OPEC. King Salman, his father, appointed him to lead a committee that will restructure the kingdom’s intelligence services after Khashoggi’s slaying. No major decisions in Saudi Arabia are made outside of the ultraconservative kingdom’s ruling Al Saud family.

As a result, with many – including members of Congress – seeking to punish the Crown Prince, it is unlikely that the Saudi announcement will be the end of the Khashoggi scandal, especially now that the UN is also involved. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres “stresses the need for a prompt, thorough and transparent investigation into the circumstances of Mr. Khashoggi’s death and full accountability for those responsible,” his spokesman Stephane Dujarric said. Standing outside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, Dujarric said the “authority that gave the orders” in the killing of Khashoggi should be punished.

As for the White House, which has repeatedly stated its reluctance to crack down on Saudi Arabia too forcefully over fears of losing hundreds of billions in lucrative weapons contracts, not to mention access to Saudi oil, press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said the U.S. will advocate for justice in the Khashoggi case that is “timely, transparent and in accordance with all due process.” And while Trump called the Saudi announcement a “good first step,” but said what happened to Khashoggi was “unacceptable.”

Saudi Arabia has already hinted that pushing too hard for retaliation against the Crown Prince, or implementing Saudi sanctions, could prove disastrous. Last weekend, a Saudi government source told the official Saudi Press Agency that “the Kingdom affirms its total rejection of any threats and attempts to undermine it, whether by threatening to impose economic sanctions, using political pressures, or repeating false accusation,” adding that “the Kingdom also affirms that if it receives any action, it will respond with greater action.”

The biggest surprise, however, came when Saudi-owned Al Arabiya channel’s general manager Turki Aldakhil warned we could see an explosive move in oil prices if relations with Saudi Arabia imploded.

“If U.S. sanctions are imposed on Saudi Arabia, we will be facing an economic disaster that would rock the entire world,” he wrote in an op-ed. “If the price of oil reaching $80 angered President Trump, no one should rule out the price jumping to $100, or $200, or even double that figure.”

This mess could ultimately throw the entire Muslim world “into the arms of Iran, which will become closer to Riyadh than Washington,” Aldakhil said. “The truth is that if Washington imposes sanctions on Riyadh, it will stab its own economy to death, even though it thinks that it is stabbing only Riyadh.”

* * *

For now Saudi Arabia is hoping that its actions in response to the killing will be sufficient: on Friday, in addition to the detention of 18 unnamed Saudis, the kingdom announced the firing of four top intelligence officials, including Maj. Gen. Ahmed bin Hassan Assiri, a one-time spokesman for the Saudi military’s campaign in Yemen who later became a confidant of Prince Mohammed.

Saud Qahtani, a powerful adviser to the prince, also was fired. Qahtani had led Saudi efforts to isolate Qatar amid a boycott of the country by the kingdom and three other Arab nations as part of a political dispute.On Twitter, where Qahtani had launched vitriolic attacks against those he saw as the kingdom’s enemies, he thanked the Saudi government for the opportunity to serve. “I will remain a loyal servant to my country for all times,” he wrote.

For now, the key man in the Khashoggi death – the Crown Prince – has not been implicated, but some skeptics have been reading between the lines and wonder if the entire event is not just a setup for a power shift within the Saudi royal family: recall that it was two months ago when Reuters reported that the Saudi (allegedly senile) King Salman had shelved the historic Saudi Aramco IPO to “teach his son, Prince Mohammed, a lesson.”

Referencing last November’s unprecedented crackdown on Saudi oligarchs – another crackdown orchestrated by the Crown Prince, which however received far less foreign condemnation – we said in August that “as last November’s events showed, when it comes to family ties in Saudi Arabia, which along with its oil deposits is legendary for its extended, constantly shifting intra-family feuds, the King’s affectation with MbS could turn on a dime following another flawed decision.”

It appears that the dimes have now turned.

end

This is a biggy!! It seems that the Saudi Crown Prince MbS spoke by phone of Khashoggi moments before he was killed.  He looks like he refused to come back to Saudi Arabia and once he refused, he was murdered

(courtesy zerohedge)

Saudi Crown Prince Spoke To Khashoggi By

Phone Moments Before He Was Killed: Report

In the latest bombshell report involving the Khashoggi murder, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman reportedly spoke on the phone with journalist Jamal Khashoggi moments before he was murdered in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. Turkish pro-government daily Yeni Safak disclosed the new alleged details of the case in a report on Sunday, contradicting claims by Saudi authorities that Prince Mohammed played no part in Khashoggi’s murder.

“Khashoggi was detained by the Saudi team inside the consulate building. Then Prince Mohammed contacted Khashoggi by phone and tried to convince him to return to Riyadh,” the report said.

“Khashoggi refused Prince Mohammed’s offer out of fear he would be arrested and killed if he returned. The assassination team then killed Khashoggi after the conversation ended,” it added.

While the report is so far unconfirmed, the New Arab reports that so far Turkish pro-government media have been receiving a steady stream of leaks many of which turned out to be accurate, including pictures of the hit team as they entered Turkey and reports of audio recordings of the murder said to be in the possession of Turkish authorities.

Meanwhile, the Saudi version of events has been changing significantly over the past two weeks with authorities conceded Saturday that Khashoggi, the Washington Post columnist and a Riyadh critic, was killed inside the kingdom’s Istanbul diplomatic compound following a “brawl”. The admission came after a fortnight of denials with the insistence that the journalist left the consulate alive, starting on October 5, when Crown Prince MBS told Bloomberg that Khashoggi was not inside the consulate and “we are ready to welcome the Turkish government to go and search our premises”.

On Saturday, the kingdom announced it had fired five top officials and arrested 18 others in an investigation into the killing – a move that has widely been viewed as an attempt to cover up the crown prince’s role in the murder.

The shifting Saudi narrative of the killing has been met with scepticism and condemnation from the international community, and has left the U.S. and other allies struggling for a response on Sunday. As Bloomberg reports, France demanded more information, Germany put arms sales to Riyadh on hold and the Trump administration stressed the vital importance of the kingdom and its economy to the U.S.

In Sunday radio and TV interviews, Dominic Raab, the U.K. politician in charge of negotiating Britain’s exit from the European Union, described the latest Saudi account as not credible; French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire called for “the truth’’; and Germany’s Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said his government would approve no arms sales so long as the investigation was ongoing.

Earlier on Sunday, Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir acknowledged a cover-up attempt. The dramatic reversal, after Saudi officials had previously said the columnist left the building alive, has only complicated the issue for allies.

Saudi Arabia’s al-Jubeir told Fox News on Sunday that the journalist’s death was an “aberration.”

“There obviously was a tremendous mistake made and what compounded the mistake was the attempt to cover up,” he said, promising that “those responsible will be punished for it.”

More importantly, he said that Prince Mohammed had no knowledge of the events, although if the Turkish report is confirmed, it will be yet another major flaw with the official narrative.

Several senior members of US President Donald Trump’s Republican Party said they believed Prince Mohammed was linked to the killing, and one called for a “collective” Western response if a link is proved. In an interview with The Washington Post, President Trump, too, said the Saudi narrative had been marked by “deception and lies.’’ Yet he also defended Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman as a “strong person,’’ and said there was no proof of his involvement in Khashoggi’s death. Some members of Congress have questioned his willingness to exonerate the prince.

“Obviously there’s been deception and there’s been lies,” Trump said on the shifting accounts offered by Riyadh.

On Sunday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan promised to disclose details about the case at a meeting of his AK Party’s parliamentary faction on Tuesday, Haberturk newspaper reported.

Meanwhile, as Western firms and high-ranked officials scramble to avoid any Saudi involvement, Russia is more than happy to step in and fill the power vacuum void left by the US. As a result, Russian businesses are flocking to attend the investment forum in Saudi Arabia, as Western counterparts pull out.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has had considerable success boosting Moscow’s influence in the Middle East at U.S. expense, by standing by regimes that fall afoul of the West, including in Syria and Iran. Last week Putin signed a strategic and partnership agreement with Egypt’s President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi, backed by $25 billion in loans to build nuclear reactors. Until El-Sisi came to power, Egypt had been closely allied to the U.S.

Meanwhile, all eyes are fixed squarely on the Crown Prince whose position of power is looking increasingly perilous. Congressional leaders on Sunday dismissed the story proffered earlier by the Saudis, with Republican Senators Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Bob Corker of Tennessee saying they believed the crown prince was likely involved in Khashoggi’s death.

Lawmakers said they believe the U.S. must impose sanctions on Saudi Arabia or take other action if the crown prince is shown to have been involved. Speaking on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” Senator Dick Durbin of Illinois, the chamber’s No. 2 Democrat, said the Saudi ambassador to the U.S. should be formally expelled until a third-party investigation is done. He said the U.S. should call on its allies to do the same.

“Unless the Saudi kingdom understands that civilized countries around the world are going to reject this conduct and make sure that they pay a price for it, they’ll continue doing it,”’ Durbin said.

The obvious question is what happens and how the Saudi royal family will respond if it is pushed too far, and whether the worst case scenario, a sharp cut in oil exports, could be on the table if MBS feels like he has little to lose from escalating the situation beyond a point of no return.

END

This does not look too kosher!!

(courtesy zerohedge)

Watch: Saudi Consulate Employees Burn

Documents Day After Khashoggi Killing

The drumbeat of incriminating leaks from the Turkish investigation into the killing of Jamal Khashoggi has continued apace Monday afternoon. And in the latest salacious piece of evidence that appears to support the theory that Khashoggi’s murder was a premeditated act ordered by a senior official in his government, if not the Crown Prince himself, a Turkish TV station has aired footage showing employees from the Saudi consulate in Istanbul burning documents on Oct. 3, the day after Khashoggi disappeared inside the consulate and was never seen again.

Per Middle East Eye, Turkish television channel A Haber released on Monday a video seemingly filmed by a small drone of consulate employees throwing documents into a fire outside of the consulate building.

Ragıp Soylu

@ragipsoylu

BREAKING — Turkish TV @tvahaber broadcasts images showing Saudi Consulate staff in Istanbul are burning documents one day after #Khashoggi murder

Turkish authorities haven’t commented on the latest video, which was shared by a number of Turkish news outlets. The identity of the individuals in the video and the contents of the documents they burned remained unknown as of publication time.

Meanwhile, Middle East Eye reported that five more Turkish employees of the Saudi consulate in Istanbul gave witness statements on Monday to investigators in the Khashoggi probe. That brings the total number of consulate employees interviewed to 25 – roughly 20 short of the 45 that investigators hope to interview.

On Saturday, Saudi Arabia officially admitted that Khashoggi had been killed inside the embassy during what they described as a “botched interrogation. However on Sunday, Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir appeared to walk back these claims, saying the kingdom didn’t know how Khashoggi died. There have also been conflicted reports about how Khashoggi’s remains were disposed of, with Saudi sources saying his body was rolled into a carpet and given to a local fixer to dispose of, while Turkish sources insist that he was cut into 15 pieces.

Turkish President Erdogan is expected to release more details about the killings on Tuesday. But evidence leaked on Monday suggest that Turkey will embrace a more aggressive tone.

Russia/USA

Russia is angry at the USA pullout of the INF nuclear deal.  They term the situation as “blackmail”

(courtesy zerohedge)

“Complete Chaos”: Russia Slams “Dangerous”

U.S. Pullout Of INF Treaty As “Blackmail”

Washington’s planned withdrawal from the international Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, announced by President Trump on Saturday, has been slammed by Russia as “a very dangerous step” which is ultimately part of “continuing attempts to achieve Russia’s concessions through blackmail” in statements made by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov on Sunday.

And Russian lawmaker Konstantin Kosachev, who chairs the Russian Parliament’s Upper House Foreign Affairs Committee, warned the move could create a domino effect endangering other landmark deals like the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START). The lawmaker said such an outcome pits mankind against “complete chaos in terms of nuclear weapons.

Russian Deputy FM Sergei Ryabkov further said that the decision would receive the condemnation of the international community as it could trigger a new arms race and make the world deeply unstable. However, Ryabkov accused the United States seeking “total domination” and said it’s attempting to remove impediments to that goal.

“At first glance, I can say that apparently the INF Treaty creates problems for pursuing the line towards the US total domination in military sphere,” Ryabkov said, according to TASS.

He explained further of the treaty signed between the Soviet Union and the United States in 1987 in Washington, DC: “This would be a very dangerous step, which, I’m sure, won’t be just understood by the international community, but arouse serious condemnation of all members of the world community, who are committed to security and stability and are ready to work on strengthening the current regimes in arms control.”

On Sunday US National Security Advisor John Bolton arrived in Moscow, and Russian officials are expected to seek clarity on US intentions regarding specific steps the White House is planning to take. “Today the US president’s national security advisor is arriving in Moscow. We hope during the contacts with him tomorrow and the day after tomorrow to hear more details and clarifications on what steps the US side is planning to take,” Deputy FM Ryabkov said.

Russia suggested the drastic move, which comes after Moscow has deployed its newest nuclear-capable Novator 9M729 missile system — said to exceed the missile range stipulated by the treaty — is being used the by Trump administration for blackmail:

“We condemn the continuing attempts to achieve Russia’s concessions through blackmail, moreover in such an issue which has importance for international security and security in the nuclear weapons sphere, for maintaining strategic stability,” the deputy FM stated.

“Therefore, these are the attempts to portray this situation as if Russia violates the treaty. But it’s not just that we do not violate it, but we strictly observe it. And we are tolerant when pointing to US blatant violations of the agreement for many years,” Ryabkov said.

Meanwhile, in a statement sure to add fuel to the ongoing diplomatic fire, NATO announced it is holding Russia responsible for the US withdrawal from the INF Treaty, saying it is “highly likely” that Moscow violates this agreement.

NATO Spokesperson Oana Lungescu said on Sunday:

NATO Allies have repeatedly raised their concerns about Russia’s lack of respect for its international commitments, including for the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which was concluded in 1987 between the United States and the Soviet Union. At the NATO Summit in July [in Brussels], Allies stressed that the United States is in compliance with its obligations under the INF Treaty, while a pattern of behavior over many years has led to widespread doubts about Russian compliance.

The spokesperson continued, referencing Russia’s recently unveiled Novator 9M729 system:

After years of denials and obfuscation, Russia recently acknowledged the existence of the missile system without providing the necessary transparency and explanation. In the absence of any credible answer from Russia on this new missile, Allies believe that the most plausible assessment would be that Russia is in violation of the INF Treaty.

President Trump had said Saturday after a campaign rally in Elko, Nevada: “We’re not going to let them violate a nuclear agreement,” and indicated, “We’re going to terminate the agreement.”

In a report that undoubtedly further complicated John Bolton’s weekend trip to Moscow, the Guardian revealed on Friday that the national security advisor – in what some described as an overreach of the position’s typical role – had been pushing Trump to abandon the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty.

The announcement comes after the U.S. had been warning Russia it could resort to strong countermeasures unless Moscow complies with international commitments to arms reduction under the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, a pact struck in the 1980s.

When first signed by President Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev following their historic 1986 meeting, the INF was touted as an important deescalation of tensions between the two superpowers. But it has since become a flashpoint in the increasingly strained relationship between the US and Russia, as both sides have accused the other of violating its terms.

END

This may be getting out of control:  Trump threatens Russia and they will increase nukes until both China and Russia come to their senses

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Threatens US Will Increase Nukes Until

Russia, China “Come To Their Senses”

After hours of closed door talks in Moscow between US National Security Advisor John Bolton and his Russian counterpart Secretary of the Russian Security Council, Nikolay Patrushev, Bolton told reporters that the United States has yet to take a decision on whether it plans to deploy missiles in Europe if the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) is scrapped.

Bolton further said that he now understands Russia’s position on nuclear arms regulations and treaties much better, and added that more consultations on arms treaties are needed, while further denying prior Russian charges that a US pullout of the INF was an attempt at “blackmail,” according to Russian state media sources. He subsequently had a 90-minute meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and later in the trip is expected to meet with President Vladimir Putin.

John Bolton shakes hands with Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev. Via RFE/RL

This comes following President Trump’s shock weekend announcement concerning the Reagan-era treaty with the Soviet Union, wherein he said after a campaign rally in Elko, Nevada: “We’re not going to let them violate a nuclear agreement,” and indicated, “We’re going to terminate the agreement.” The Guardian had the day priorto the Saturday statement revealed that Bolton – in what some described as an overreach of the position’s typical role – had been pushing Trump to abandon the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty.

Moscow’s reaction on Sunday was fierce with Russia’sDeputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov warning that Trump’s pledge to “terminate” the treaty was “very dangerous” and that “[Withdrawal] won’t be understood by the international community, but [instead] arouse serious condemnation of all members of the world community, who are committed to security and stability and are ready to work on strengthening the current regimes in arms control.”

While in Moscow for his two day working visit with Russian officials, Bolton explained in an interview with the Ekho Moskvy radio station that the weapons systems the INF concerns are no longer exclusively operated by the US and Russia, but other countries like China and North Korea are in the process of producing and testing such systems. Thus, he said, the issue can’t be solved merely between the US and Russia, and has to be revised.

He further cited “concerns” that Russia is in violation of the treaty but didn’t go into detail as to exactly how. Should the INF treaty collapse, the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) would remain one of last obstacles before uncontrolled nuclear proliferation. It is set to expire in 2021, and Bolton said that Washington has not formulated its position on START just yet.

Meanwhile, with Bolton in Moscow President Trump words were more direct as he spoke to reporters from the White House steps on Monday.

Trump said of the INF that “Russia has not adhered to the agreement,” and warned that the United States intends to build up its nuclear arsenal until “people come to their senses.” Trump was also addressing China, which both he and Bolton have implied to be part of any newly formulated nuclear arms control treaty.

In response to reporters’ questioning whether this is a “threat” Trump said:

It’s a threat to whoever you want to include China and it includes Russia and it includes anybody else that wants to play that game… [Russia has] not adhered to the spirit of that agreement or to the agreement itself.

He said of Russia failing to conform to either the letter of spirit of the treaty: “When they do, we will all be smart and we’ll stop. Not only stop, but we’ll reduce, which I’d love to do.” He added that the US has “more money than anyone else by far” – implying that he wouldn’t bluff and that, “You can’t play that game on me.”

However these latest statements by Trump won’t go down well in Moscow, where Russian officials will only take them as confirmation that this is indeed all about blackmail – or Trump’s classic tactic of “negotiating from an extreme” position in order to get a “better deal”.

ISRAEL/JORDAN

Jordan cancels key part of the historic treaty with Israel, by refusing to renew land annex in the area called Naharayim and Zofar

(courtesy zerohedge)

Jordan Cancels Key Part Of Historic Treaty With Israel,

Refusing To Renew Land Annexes

Jordan announced a bombshell on Sunday in relation to its peace treaty with Israel, stating it would not renew a 25-year lease of two tracts of territory along its border which is set for renewal on Thursday.

Under the 1994 historic treaty brokered under Bill Clinton, Israel retained private land ownership and special travel rights in Baquora — called Naharayim by the Israelis  in the northwestern part of the kingdom, and Ghumar — or Zofar in Hebrew  in the south. Part of the agreement signed at the White House in which Jordan became only the second Arab country after Egypt to make peace with Israel was that Jordan would lease sovereign Jordanian land to Israel.

But after sizable protests last Friday in Amman involving marchers demanding that Jordan reclaim full sovereignty over the territory, King Abdullah announced the cancellation of this part of the treaty, saying an official message has been relayed to Israel on the matter.

“Baqoura and Ghumar were at the top of our priorities,” King Abdullah tweeted via his official account. “Our decision is to terminate the Baquoura and Ghamar annexes from the peace treaty out of our keenness to take all decisions that would serve Jordan and Jordanians.”

Both sites, which Israel had leased and utilized primarily for agriculture and considers key strategic security points, are located on the Jordan-Israel border. Israel is expected to attempt to retain lease rights to the land as strategic locations essential to its border security.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reacted to the news at a memorial for the late Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin on Sunday“There is no doubt the agreement is an important asset,” he said. He called the peace deals with Jordan and Egypt “anchors of regional stability.”

King Abdullah has been under intense domestic pressure not to renew the lease deals — not only the face of the recent Amman protests, but as eighty-seven lawmakers in parliament have signed a petition demanding the restoration of Jordanian sovereignty over the lands. Relations between the two countries have been severely strained over the past years over an array of key issues from the status of Jerusalem and the Temple Mount to lack of progress in Israeli-Palestinian talks to deep uncertainty over Trump administration offers of new peace talks.

Map via HaaretzBut the more immediate issue which has inflamed tensions on both sides of Israeli-Jordanian relations was the July 2017 shooting by an Israeli Embassy security guard in Amman of two Jordanian citizens. The shooting happened as one allegedly tried to attack the guard with a knife, while the other Jordanian was an innocent bystander who was shot in the ensuing chaos.

The whole event sparked a diplomatic crisis with Israel, which caused Israel to withdraw its embassy staff and ambassador. Israeli embassy operations resumed only after Israel paid a total of $5 million in compensation to the two families of the men killed.

Currently, there are dozens of Israeli farmers and their families living on the strips of land Jordan has said it will repossess when the treaty fails to be renewed on Thursday.

According to Haaretz:

“This announcement would mean a catastrophe for agriculture. It’ll affect about 20-30 farmers and about 1,000 dunams that will be transferred to the Jordanians. It’s a disaster for Zofar. As it is, the situation of agriculture is not great,” Eyal Blum, the head of the Central Arava Regional Council, where Zofar is located, said in response.

The Israeli official further called in “inconceivable” that the territories would be given up by Israel: “The agricultural areas in the Zofar enclave are very significant for the security of the region, the state, for livelihoods and agriculture in the central Arava. It is inconceivable that after so many years, the world order will change. I call upon the prime minister of Israel to solve this crisis immediately,” he said.

Many of the protesters in Amman in recent weeks have actually demanded a complete Jordanian pullout of the historic 1994 treaty signed at the White House. After the recent US recognition of Jerusalem as the official capitol of Israel, it is likely a swell of domestic anger in Jordan will only fuel the worsening of relations.

end

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

Mexico/Central America/USA

President Trump has threatened to cut Central American aid as Mexico loses control of the migrant situation

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

“National Emergency” – President Trump To Cut Central American Aid As Mexico Loses Control Of Migrant Army

Since President Trump threatened to close the Southern border due to Honduras’ unwillingness to comply with his requests for assistance in stopping a migrant caravan marching toward the US, the migrants have successfully crossed into Mexico and on Sunday regrouped after being temporarily delayed at the Mexican border by border guards who failed to force the migrants to turn back.

Migrants

So, for the second time this year, it appears President Trump is ready to send more US troops to the border, as he said in a tweet Monday morning that he’d notified the border patrol and military that this is a “national emergency” while reiterating that the blame lay with Democrats for refusing to change our “pathetic” immigration laws.

And since Honduras and Guatemala did nothing to stop the migrants despite Trump’s requests for assistance, the president added that we would be cutting off aid: “We will now begin cutting off, or substantially reducing, the massive foreign aid routinely given to them.”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Sadly, it looks like Mexico’s Police and Military are unable to stop the Caravan heading to the Southern Border of the United States. Criminals and unknown Middle Easterners are mixed in. I have alerted Border Patrol and Military that this is a National Emergency. Must change laws!

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Every time you see a Caravan, or people illegally coming, or attempting to come, into our Country illegally, think of and blame the Democrats for not giving us the votes to change our pathetic Immigration Laws! Remember the Midterms! So unfair to those who come in legally.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador were not able to do the job of stopping people from leaving their country and coming illegally to the U.S. We will now begin cutting off, or substantially reducing, the massive foreign aid routinely given to them.

The backlash to the migrants has intensified over the weekend, as the mile-long caravan has continued unimpeded toward the US’s southern border. Amusingly, liberals bullied the  Associated Press on Sunday into correcting one of its headlines after the wire service described the caravan as an “army of migrants”.

“A ragged, growing army of migrants resumes march toward US,” read the original headline on the AP story. The AP later changed the headline to replace the word “army” with “caravan.”

Though the AP has used the word “army” to refer to large groups of people besides migrants – including nurses and political activists – many on the political left criticized the wire service for its original headline.

Meanwhile, videos have emerged of people handing out cash to the migrants, raising suspicions that the caravan has received outside funding for its assault on the southern border.

end

7  OIL ISSUES

 

 

end

8. EMERGING MARKETS

BRAZIL

 

 

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings MONDAY morning 7:00 am

Euro/USA 1.1502 DOWN .0008 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES GREEN

 

 

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 112.82  UP 0.322  (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL

GBP/USA 1.3024 DOWN   0.0029  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3082  DOWN .0008 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS MONDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 8 basis point, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1474; / Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED UP 104.41 POINTS OR 4.01%

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 591.75 POINTS OR 2.32% 

 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN  0.61%EUROPEAN BOURSES ALL GREEN 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this MONDAY morning CLOSED UP 82.74 POINTS OR 0.37%

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED  GREEN 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 591.75 POINTS OR 2.22% 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 104.41 POINTS OR 4.09%

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.61%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 82,74 POINTS OR 0.37%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1223.35

silver:$14.63

Early MONDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 3.19% !!! UP 0 IN POINTS from FRIDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

The 30 yr bond yield 3.37 DOWN 1  IN BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 95.80 UP 9  CENT(S) from FRIDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers MONDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS \4: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.01% DOWN 2    in basis point(s) yield from FRIDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.15%  UP 0  BASIS POINTS from FRIDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/EXTREMELY VOLATILE YESTERDAY…DANGEROUS!!

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.70% DOWN 3 IN basis point yield from FRIDAY/

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.49 DOWN 21   POINTS in basis point yield from FRIDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 178 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES UP TO +.47%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY

Closing currency crosses for MONDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1465 DOWN .0044 or 44 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 112.79 DOWN .285 OR 29 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2981 DOWN .0073( POUND DOWN 73 BASIS POINTS)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

This afternoon, the Euro was FELL BY 44 BASIS POINTS  to trade at 1.1465

The Yen ROSE to 112.79 for a LOSS of 29 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE

The POUND LOST 73 basis points, trading at 1.2981/

The Canadian dollar LOST 18 basis points to 1.3108

 

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY closed UP AT 6.9475-  ON SHORE  (YUAN down)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.9492(  YUAN down)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.6856

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.15%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 1 IN basis points from FRIDAY at 3.19 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.38 UP 1 in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 96.02 UP 31 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for MONDAY: 4:00 PM 

London: CLOSED DOWN 7.00 POINTS OR 0.10%

German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 29.49 POINTS  OR 0.26%
Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 31.35 POINTS OR 0.62%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 85.60 POINTS OR 0.96%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN:  113.94 POINTS OR 0..60%/

 

 

WTI Oil price; 69.02 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 79.74 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    65.14  THE CROSS LOWER BY .32 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER by 32 BASIS PTS)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA:  5.6856 PER ONE USA DOLLAR.

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES +.47 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:69.17

 

BRENT:80.10

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.20%..deadly

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.39%/…deadly

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1467 ( DOWN 44 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:112.82 UP ,315 (YEN DOWN 32 BASIS POINTS/ .(LACK OF FOR.EXCHANGE SWAPS)

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 95.61 DOWN 28 cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.3066 UP 47 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 5.6690

the Russian rouble:  65.24 UP 0.22 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 22 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar: 1.3099 DOWN 9 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 6.9475  (ONSHORE)

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH):  6.9438 (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.47%

 

The Dow closed  DOWN  126.93 POINTS OR 0.50%

NASDAQ closed UP 19.60  points or 0.26% 4.00 PM EST


VOLATILITY INDEX:  19.58  CLOSED DOWN  0.31

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.477%  .LIBOR  RATES ARE RISING/big jump today

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY

 

China Rescue Fails To Save EU, US Markets –

Banks, Builders, & Bud Stocks Battered

What did China do…

 

Of course, everyone is talking about Chinese stocks – CHINEXT is up 10% in two days… if you fall for this manipulated idiocy, you deserve all you get. This was the biggest 2-day jump since the rescue of Chinese stocks after August 2015’s devaluation crashed stocks…

 

European stocks opened with some China hope and some Italy hope but that evaporated rapidly…

 

Spanish stocks actually underperformed close-to-close but Italy’s was the biggest dump from the opening highs of the day…

 

China’s overnight manipulation sparked a panic bid in US stocks all the way into the cash open, and then the selling resumed…

But the S&P is now down 11 of the last 13 days with The Dow and S&P the biggest losers on the day…only Nasdaq managed to hold gains…

 

Small Caps tumbled (heading towards their worst month since Sept 2011) and have erased 2018 YTD gains…

 

Financials were the day’s biggest losers, tech outperformed…

 

Despite tech gains, NFLX continued to slide…

 

The VIX term structure remains inverted for the 11th day in a row…


The bloodbath in homebuilders continues…

 

Pot stocks continued to plunge since Canada’s legalization last week into a bear market – down 22%… this is the worst 5-session drop since inception…

And some of the individual names are collapsing…

 

Global Systemically Important Bank Stocks are collapsing…down 27% from its highs… weakest since Dec 2016 erasing almost all of the post-Trump gains…

And if you thought banks were bad, don’t look at the asset managers…

 

Stocks and Bonds remain notably decoupled as selling remains the trend in both…

 

Treasury yields went nowhere today despite the panic bid and scramble to sell in stocks today…

 

10Y yields traded an inside day (lower high yield than Friday and higher low yield than Friday)…

 

The Dollar Index rebounded back up to 96, ripping higher after China closed…

 

Offshore Yuan tumbled after China’s stock markets closed – despite a notably stronger Yuan Fix…

 

And among all the markets, cable was the worst performing currency as hard brexit fears re-loom and despite dollar gains, the Rand, Ruble, and Real all gained…

 

Cryptocurrencies were largely fading lower for the last 24 hours…

 

Copper managed to barely hold on to the China ramp gains but PMs and Crude leaked lower on dollar strength…

 

Financial Conditions continue to tighten and suggest notable downside for stocks…

But there is one thing holding the indices up…as Bloomberg details, price reactions during earnings season so far are pretty evenly spread out by sector so far, but the one outlier is the newly revamped Communication Services. See the green dot on the far right of the matrix below to see the how stark the difference is versus all other groups.

It’s an extremely small sample size of only three reports so far (Netflix, Omnicom, Interpublic Group), but the aggregate surprise of ~17% and positive price movement of >7% is off the charts compared to the rest. It may be nothing. Just something to think about with some of the heavier-weighted members set to report this week, from Alphabet, Charter and Comcast to AT&T and Verizon.

Or to put it another way – as goes ‘Communications Services’, so goes ‘Murica.

 

market trading

Early morning

S&P, Dow Give Up Overnight Gains As Italian Markets Plunge

One leg of the overnight ramp in US stocks has just broken as Italy’s refusal to budge with Brussels has sent Italian bond (prices) and stocks tumbling, erasing earlier gains and dragging US stocks down…

Italian bond risk is now higher than Friday’s close…

And Italian stocks are lower…

Led by Italian banks plunging…

The Euro is tumbling…

And that has sparked derisking in the overnight exuberance of US equities… The Dow and S&P have given up all overnight gains…

As one veteran European FX trader told us “this is far from over.

end

this afternoon:

Dow Dumps 300 Points, Back Below Overnight Lows

Dow futures are down over 300 points from pre-opening highs (ramped by China’s National Team), and back below overnight lows. The S&P is also back in the red but Nasdaq – for now – remains in the green…

 

Pushing The Dow back to Friday’s lows…

 

The Dow and S&P are both well underwater but the machines still have control of Nasdaq…

With all major indices unable to hold bounces over their crucial technical support levels…

 

 

market data/

 

USA economic/general stories
The following is a must read as David Stockman writes about the truth of the reporting of the actual job numbers.  He states that the true unemployment rate is 40% and he does a detailed calculation on his findings. Central banks only exist for bankers and could not care less for anybody else: they are the mortal enemy of the capitalist prosperity
(courtesy David Stockman)

Stockman: Why Greenspanian Central Banking Is The Mortal Enemy Of Capitalist Prosperity

Authored by David Stockman via Contra Corner blog,

We can thank bubblevision and the Maestro himself for a splendid reminder yesterday that Greenspanian central banking is the greatest menace to capitalist prosperity ever invented. This was made abundantly clear by his pronouncement on CNBC regarding the current labor market:

“Tightest labor market I’ve ever seen.” – Greenspan on @CNBC

As an empirical matter, of course, that’s rank nonsense—and is among the stupidest quips the Maestro has ever uttered. That’s because the law of supply and demand dictates that if the labor market is actually the tightest since Greenspan began his career in the 1950s, wage rates should also be rising at the highest rate ever.

In fact, at 2.8% year-year-over-year for September 2018, nominal wage growth (red line) is the lowest it’s been since the late 1960s; and in real terms, the story is even worse.

To wit, between 1955 and 2000, real compensation per hour grew at a 1.75% annual rate—-and that’s the average across seven business cycle, including recession years.

By contrast, we are now at the top of the second longest business expansion in history, and real compensation (purple line) was up just 0.7% over the past 12 months. And that’s virtually the weakest late cycle growth rate on record.

In short, the only valid free market measure of “tight” is the price of labor, and those limpid wage rates say absolutely not.

Of course, what the Maestro and his Keynesian fellow travelers refer to is not the verdict of the marketplace, but bureaucratic guesstimates about labor market conditions published monthly by the BLS. Yet it doesn’t take even 10 minutes worth of investigation to show that the BLS’ tightness gauge—the U-3 unemployment rate—is not worth the paper it’s printed on.

As Jeff Snider has cogently demonstrated, we are at 3.7% unemployment only because the labor force participation rate as measured by the BLS has plunged.

In fact, at the same 3.7% so-called full employment rate which pertained when the Maestro was riding high in the late 1990s, the labor force participation rate was north of 67%, not today’s 62.7% (September). And that means the Maestro’s alleged labor shortage rests on the back of 16.6 million workers who have purportedly gone missing!

We don’t think any workers have actually gone missing at all, and believe that the actual unemployment rate is upwards of 40%, as demonstrated below. But suffice it to say here that there is a reason why Wall Street and Washington economists alike insist on using the patently ridiculous and grossly erroneous numbers manufactured by the BLS data mills.

To wit, the BLS jobs data—and especially the U-3 unemployment rate—function as a convenient “help wanted” sign for Keynesian interventionists. The implication is that the free market’s pricing system for labor, goods and services doesn’t work very well, and that the wise guiding hand of the state is needed to regulate an economic ether called “aggregate demand”.

That is to say, the US economy resembles a giant economic bathtub, and the aim of government policy is to keep it filled exactly to the brim. That way, everybody’s got a job, a good wage, a nice life, no (inflation) worries and perhaps is even rid of sniffles and hangnails, too!

So when the U-3 unemployment rate is at 11%, 8% or 5%, there is purportedly a large deficiency of demand, signaling that the state and its central banking branch need to pump more spending into the bathtub via fiscal or monetary stimulus.

Likewise, when U-3 reaches the alleged “full employment” rate at +/- 3.7% that’s a signal the tub is close to full and that interest rates need to be raised in order to curtail credit expansion and spending, thereby insuring that an inflationary overflow does not upset the macroeconomic applecart.

But here’s the thing. The 12 members of the FOMC might as well be standing out on Independence Avenue waving their arms in order to keep marauding elephants from over-running the Eccles Building!

That’s about how useful U-3 is as a measure of labor market or macroeconomic conditions; and it’s also about as worthless as is the Fed’s endless pegging of money market rates and massive intrusion in the bond markets in furtherance of capitalist prosperity.

The fact is, the potential labor supply from both domestic and off-shore sources is so limitless that the only thing needed to mobilize more employed hours is the pricing system, not the monetary politburo’s (FOMC) machinations in the financial markets.

At a high enough wage rate, you will get housewives out of the kitchen, students off their duffs, more volunteers for over-time, and, if need be, more peasants out of the Chinese or Vietnamese rice paddies. In today’s globally networked, traded and welfare-enabled world, there will never be a physical shortage of labor hours—just the right price to bring latent hours into monetized production.

Needless to say, the latent hours now sequestered in Federally subsidized basketweaving classes or playing shuffle-board on early retirement or disability do raise market-clearing wage level s at the margin. But you can solve that problem but cutting welfare benefits, not giving the Fed a mandate to fiddle with interest rates and financial asset prices.

That latter only fosters increasingly destructive gambling, bubbles and malinvestments in the financial system, not higher production, employment and prosperity on main street.

Indeed, there is no need for central bankers at all when it comes to economic growth, jobs, incomes and prosperity. That’s because Say’s Law is as valid today as it has always been.

Work, effort, production and enterprise are what create both current income and future growth. Demand flows from supply and spending flows from income; capitalism doesn’t need any U-3 obsessed central bankers to make it all happen.

Likewise, the labor pricing system in a $20 trillion economy has it hands down over the 12 PhDs, bankers and Washington apparatchiks who sit on the FOMC. If the market is heavy with latent labor hours, real wage rates will come down; and if it’s light, real wage rates will rise sufficiently to attract the needed hours.

In fact, now that most of the monopoly industrial unions have been broken or defanged–even the old Keynesian saw about “sticky” wages is self-evidently inoperative. The truth is, there is nothing about the contemporary labor market that requires the helping hand of the Fed at all.

Moreover, there is no even theoretical possibility of runaway wage inflation of the type that industrial unions led by the UAW and Steelworkers were able to generate in the late 1960s. That because virtually every manner of goods produced in the US economy and a growing portion of services can now be supplied from off-shore, and often at far lower wage rates—even adjusted for productivity and transportation—-than paid by domestic suppliers.

That is to say, the only semblance of an inflation problem facing the US economy is the roaring inflation of financial asset prices, which is the Fed’s stock and trade.

So if you want to have honest full employment and maximum possible capitalist prosperity, unleash the free market and the pricing system for goods and labor; and if you want to avoid inflation of all types—goods, services, credit and stock prices–abolish the FOMC, which causes it.

Needless to say, reversion to Carter Glass’ original Fed design as a “bankers’ bank” empowered to discount and liquefy sound commercial credits (real bills), and one which had no macroeconomic remit whatsoever, would put today’s masters of the universe out of business.

In fact, the Glassian Fed only needed to employ green eyeshades who knew how to read financial statements and assess credit risk on business loans offered as collateral at the Fed’s discount windows. PhD economists and policy apparatchiks bent on improving the work of labor and entrepreneurs on the free market need not have even applied.

Stated differently, if the BLS didn’t exist—and it surely is not needed for true prosperity—Keynesian central bankers would have to invent it. It is the BLS’ phony labor market gauges (and price indices, too) which provide the fodder to justify the destructive full-employment focussed make-work of central bankers.

Ironically, the Maestro’s risible assertion this AM about the tightest labor market in modern history does nothing less than underscore that the the whole BLS employment/unemployment reporting framework and model is essentially a pile of garbage; it might have been relevant during the days of your grandfather’s economy, if even then, but is a crock in today’s world drowning in available labor.

So let us remind once again:The BLS data is built on the flawed notion that labor inputs can be accurately measured by a unit called a “job” and that an economic trend in motion tends to stay in motion.

To the contrary, in today’s world labor is procured by the hour and by the gig–meaning that the “job” units counted in both the establishment and household surveys are a case of apples, oranges and cumquats. The household survey, for example, would count as equally “employed” a person holding:

  • a 10-hour per week gig with no benefits;
  • a worker holding three part-time jobs adding to less than 36 hours per week with some benefits; and
  • a 50-hour per week manufacturing job (with overtime) providing a cadillac style benefit package.

Beyond that, the underlying monthly surveys are tiny, primitive and utterly lacking in quality control among respondents. As a result, the statistical wizards at the BLS smooth it all over with ad hoc adjustments and guesstimates (e.g. the notorious birth-death model) and trend-cycle statistical models that essentially project into the current month the statistical trend line then underway.

In short, the monthly jobs report is not an accurate empirical snapshot of where the real world labor market actually is; it’s a modeled projection of where the BLS bureaucrats and their Keynesian tutors think it should be. 

And that’s also why the BLS “jobs” confection is useless at turning points in the business cycle. During the 2008-2009 employment collapse, for instance, it initially overreported the nonfarm payrolls by nearly 500,000 jobs per month because it assumed the previous trend was still in motion–even as employers were throwing workers overboard with reckless abandon after the Lehman meltdown on Wall Street.

Aside from cyclical turning points (mostly triggered by the Fed itself), the larger context is this: The natural tendency of a capitalist economy is to expand if the work force is growing and if the state does not excessively retard investment and productivity growth.

Those natural expansionary forces have been at work in tepid form since the recessionary correction of 2008-2010. They account for the “recovery” of some 8.5 million jobs which were lost in the Great Recession and the modest incremental gains that have been generated since breakeven was achieved in 2014.

But what is important is the growth rate of actual labor units employed and the relationship of that to the available potential labor force—not simply the BLS “jobs” model. The latter basically floats on the back of the natural capitalist business cycle expansion and enables the monetary politburo in the Eccles Building to claim credit for what are really nothing more than statistical proxies.
Needless to say, we think there is a far more insightful and accurate way to look at labor utilization and to assess whether or not an Awesome state of affair has actually been achieved.

As we indicated above, back in the year 2000 (the last time U-3 hit 3.7%) what we consider to be the comprehensive unemployment rate was 34.6%. Today it stands at 40.0%.

Since the turn of the century, therefore, there has been enormous deterioration in the US economy’s use of its potential labor supply. Yet as the Baby Boom rapidly ages and the Welfare State burden soars, that is a very bad thing.

Stated differently, the US has not utilized the last 9 years of so-called recovery to get back to Awesome—-as implied by the BLS reports and Alan Greenspan’s “tightest” ever labor market pronouncement.

Instead, it has wasted a crucial decade in front of the Baby Boom retirement bow-wave–continuing to peddle backwards with regard to its underlying capacity for economic growth and rising real incomes. If nothing else, the latter are absolutely essential to pay the taxes that will be needed to prevent the US Welfare/Warfare State from fiscally capsizing in the decades immediately ahead.

In this context, we measure the potential labor force as the US population 20-69 years of age and assume that in theory every adult could work 2000 hours per year in the monetized labor market.

That avoids the obvious problem in the BLS statistics with respect to work and activity relative to the official labor force and monetized economy. For example, the BLS counts three jobs for a two-earner family which hires a full-time housekeeper, but just one job for the same family where one spouse works in the monetized economy, one-stays home and neither hires a third person to do the home chores.

The same logic applies to the 30-year old still in graduate school living on Uncle Sam’s student loans versus holding a job in the monetized economy; or the former office worker on disability who got a bad back and corporal tunnel bending over a typewriter; or the 60% of able-bodied recipients on foods stamps who do not currently hold a job; or the millions of millennials in mom and pops basement who sell empty beer bottles on eBay.

Many factors drive whether potential labor hours get sequestered outside of the monetized economy in housework, studentdom, on the welfare rolls or in moms basement. But the interest rate on overnight funds is surely the least of them.

Nevertheless, all things equal under today’s demographic and fiscal circumstances requires that the comprehensive unemployment rate needs to be dropping—so that Uncle Sam can find the tax receipts needed to prevent a complete societal civil war a few years down the road.

But it’s not happening. In December 2000, there were 175.5 million adults aged 2069—meaning that the implied potential labor force amounted to 351 billion labor hour per annum. During that same month, the BLS measured 229.5 billion hours actually employed in the non-farm economy at an annual rate.

Accordingly, unemployment amounted to 121.5 billion hours or 34.6% of the potential available hours.

By contrast, the adult population 20-69 years of age is now 211.6 million and available hours total 423.2 billion per annum. Against that, the BLS most recent measure shows 254.2 billion hours actually employed—implying 169 billion unemployed labor hours and a 40.0% comprehensive unemployment rate.

Stated differently, between the two 3.7% anchor points on the U-3 unemployment during the last 18 years, the level of unemployed US labor has increased by 48 billion hours per annum, and the rate has risen commensurately.

More importantly, potential labor grew by 72 billion hours or at a 1.05% per annum rate during that period, while actually employed hours rose by only 25 billion and 0.58% per year.

And that’s exactly the skunk in the woodpile. By contrast, during the 1980 to 2000 peak-to-peak periods, the potential labor force grew by 2.2% per annum, and labor hours actually utilized rose by nearly an identical 1.9% annualized rate.

So we are now at the opposite end of Awesome and not even in the zip code of a labor shortage. In 1980, the Baby Boom was just beginning to flood into the labor force, and female participation rates in the monetized economy were rising rapidly; and those hours were put to work.

By contrast, employed hours have grown at only one-quarter that rate since December 2000 and the true (comprehensive hours based) unemployment rate has steadily risen.

The reason for that is not hard to find. Fed policy has badly damaged the main street economy via its massive inflationary incentive for off-shoring of high value production and jobs while turning the C-suites of corporate America into predatory dens of financial engineering.

At the same time, Welfare State policy has further drained labor resources from the monetized economy with massive increases in food stamp, disability, Medicaid and other welfare programs.

So if you want to fix the real labor market problem, remove the fiscal subsidies and incentives for keeping potential hours off the market.

But most importantly, abolish the FOMC. It’s the mortal enemy of capitalist prosperity.

end

 

SWAMP STORIES

This latest commentary is a dandy. The judge hearing the  Russian collusion case is Judge Dabney Friedrich a Republican who also has the distinction of dating Supreme Court Justice Kavanaugh.  No doubt she is well tuned on the Russian collusion saga.  She has ordered Mueller to bring her evidence of that collusion..

 

 

(courtesy zerohedge)

Judge Orders Mueller To Prove Russian Company Meddled In Election

A Washington federal judge on Thursday ordered special counsel Robert Mueller’s team to clarify election meddling claims lodged against a Russian company operated by Yevgeny Prigozhin, an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to Bloomberg

Concord Management and Consulting, LLC. – one of three businesses indicted by Mueller in February along with 13 individuals for election meddling, surprised the special counsel in April when they actually showed up in court to fight the charges. Mueller’s team tried to delay Concord from entering the case, arguing that three Russian company not been properly served, however Judge Dabney Friedrich denied the request – effectively telling prosecutors ‘well, they’re here.’ 

Concord was accused in the indictment of supporting the Internet Research Agency (IRA), a Russian ‘troll farm’ accused of trying to influence the 2016 US election.

On Thursday, Judge Freidrich asked Mueller’s prosecutors if she should assume they aren’t accusing Concord of violating US laws applicable to election expenditures and failure to register as a foreign agent.

Concord has asked Dabney to throw out the charges – claiming that Mueller’s office fabricated a crime, and that there is no law against interfering in elections.

According to the judge’s request for clarification, the Justice Department has argued that it doesn’t have to show that Concord had a legal duty to report its expenditures to the Federal Election Commission. Rather, the allegation is that the company knowingly engaged in deceptive acts that precluded the FEC, or the Justice Department, from ascertaining whether they had broken the law. –Bloomberg

On Monday, Friedrich raised questions over whether the special counsel’s office could prove a key element of their case – saying that it was “hard to see” how allegations of Russian influence were intended to interfere with US government operations vs. simply “confusing voters,” reports law.com.

During a 90-minute hearing, Friedrich questioned prosecutor Jonathan Kravis about how the government would be able to show the Russian defendants were aware of the Justice Department and FEC’s functions and then deliberately sought to skirt them.

You still have to show knowledge of the agencies and what they do. How do you do that? Friedrich asked.

Kravis, a prosecutor in the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of Columbia, argued that the government needed only to show that Concord Management and the other defendants were generally aware that the U.S. government “regulates and monitors” foreign participation in American politics. That awareness, Kravis said, could be inferred from the Russians’ alleged creation of fake social media accounts that appeared to be run by U.S. citizens and “computer infrastructure” intended to mask the Russian origin of the influence operation.

That is deception that is directed at a higher level,” Kravis said. Kravis appeared in court with Michael Dreeben, a top Justice Department appellate lawyer on detail to the special counsel’s office. –law.com

Concord pleaded not guilty in May. Their attorney, Eric Dubelier – a partner at Reed Smith, has described the election meddling charges as “make believe,” arguing on Monday that Mueller’s indictment against Concord “doesn’t charge a crime.”

“There is no statute of interfering with an election. There just isn’t,” said Dubelier, who added that Mueller’s office alleged a “made-up crime to fit the facts they have.”

Dubelier added that the case against Concord Management is the first in US history “where anyone has ever been charged with defrauding the Justice Department” through their failure to register under FARA.

END

This is interesting:  FBI admits it used multiple spies to infiltrate the Trump campaign

(courtesy zerohedge)

FBI Admits It Used Multiple Spies To Infiltrate Trump Campaign

The Department of Justice admitted in a Friday court filing that the FBI used more than one “Confidential Human Source,” (also known as informants, or spies) to infiltrate the Trump campaign through former adviser Carter Page, reports the Daily Caller.

“The FBI has protected information that would identify the identities of other confidential sources who provided information or intelligence to the FBI” as well as “information provided by those sources,” wrote David M. Hardy, the head of the FBI’s Record/Information Dissemination Section (RIDS), in court papers submitted Friday.

Hardy and Department of Justice (DOJ) attorneys submitted the filings in response to a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) lawsuit for the FBI’s four applications for Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) warrants against Page. The DOJ released heavily redacted copies of the four FISA warrant applications on June 20, but USA Today reporter Brad Heath has sued for full copies of the documents. –Daily Caller

Included in Hardy’s declaration is an acknowledgement that the FBI’s spies were in addition to the UK’s Christopher Steele – a former MI6 operative who assembled the controversial and largely unproven “Steel Dossier” which the DOJ/FBI used to obtain a FISA warrant to spy on Page.

Christopher Steele, Nellie and Bruce Ohr 

The DOJ says it redacted information in order to protect the identity of their confidential sources, which “includes nonpublic information about and provided by Christopher Steele,” reads the filing, “as well as information about and provided by other confidential sources, all of whom were provided express assurances of confidentiality.”

Government lawyers said the payment information is being withheld because disclosing specific payment amounts and dates could “suggest the relative volume of information provided by a particular CHS.” That disclosure could potentially tip the source’s targets off and allow them to “take countermeasures, destroy or fabricate evidence, or otherwise act in a way to thwart the FBI’s activities.” –Daily Caller

Steele, referred to as Source #1, met with several DOJ / FBI officials during the 2016 campaign, including husband and wife team Bruce and Nellie Ohr. Bruce was the #4 official at the DOJ, while his CIA-linked wife Nellie was hired by Fusion GPS – who also employed Steele, in the anti-Trump opposition research / counterintelligence effort funded by Trump’s opponents, Hillary Clinton and the DNC.

In addition to Steele, the FBI also employed 73-year-old University of Cambridge professor Stefan Halper, a US citizen, political veteran and longtime US Intelligence asset enlisted by the FBI to befriend and spy on three members of the Trump campaign during the 2016 US election. Halper received over $1 million in contracts from the Pentagon during the Obama years, however nearly half of that coincided with the 2016 US election.

Stefan HalperHalper’s name first came to light after the Daily Caller‘s Chuck Ross reported his involvement with Carter Page and George Papadopoulos, another Trump campaign aide. Ross’s reporting was confirmed by the NYT and WaPo.

In June, Trump campaign aides Roger Stone and Michael Caputo claimed that a meeting Stone took in late May, 2016 with a Russian appears to have been an “FBI sting operation” in hindsight, following the reports about Halper.

Roger Stone

When Stone arrived at the restaurant in Sunny Isles, he said, Greenberg was wearing a Make America Great Again T-shirt and hat. On his phone, Greenberg pulled up a photo of himself with Trump at a rally, Stone said. –WaPo

The meeting went nowhere – ending after Stone told Greenberg “You don’t understand Donald Trump… He doesn’t pay for anything.” The Post independently confirmed this account with Greenberg.

Aftter the meeting, Stone received a text message from Caputo – a Trump campaign communications official who arranged the meeting after Greenberg approached Caputo’s Russian-immigrant business partner.

How crazy is the Russian?” Caputo wrote according to a text message reviewed by The Post. Noting that Greenberg wanted “big” money, Stone replied: “waste of time.” WaPo

In short, the FBI’s acknowledgement that they used multiple spies reinforces Stone’s assertion that he was targeted by one.

Further down the rabbit hole

Stefan Halper’s infiltration of the Trump campaign corresponds with the two of the four targets of the FBI’s Operation Crossfire Hurricane – in which the agency sent former counterintelligence agent Peter Strzok and others to a London meeting in the Summer of 2016 with former Australian diplomat Alexander Downer – who says Papadopoulos drunkenly admitted to knowing that the Russians had Hillary Clinton’s emails.

Interestingly Downer – the source of the Papadopoulos intel, and Halper – who conned Papadopoulos months later, are linked through UK-based Haklyut & Co.an opposition research and intelligence firm similar to Fusion GPS – founded by three former British intelligence operatives in 1995 to provide the kind of otherwise inaccessible research for which select governments and Fortune 500 corporations pay huge sums

Alexander Downer

Downer – a good friend of the Clintons, has been on their advisory board for a decade, while Halper is connected to Hakluyt through Director of U.S. operations Jonathan Clarke, with whom he has co-authored two books. (h/t themarketswork.com)

Alexander Downer, the Australian High Commissioner to the U.K. Downer said that in May 2016, Papadopoulos told him during a conversation in London about Russians having Clinton emails.

That information was passed to other Australian government officials before making its way to U.S. officials. FBI agents flew to London a day after “Crossfire Hurricane” started in order to interview Downer.

It is still not known what Downer says about his interaction with Papadopoulos, which The DCNF is told occurred around May 10, 2016.

Also interesting via Lifezette – “Downer is not the only Clinton fan in Hakluyt. Federal contribution records show several of the firm’s U.S. representatives made large contributions to two of Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign organizations.”

Halper contacted Papadopoulos on September 2, 2016 according to The Caller – flying him out to London to work on a policy paper on energy issues in Turkey, Cyprus and Israel – for which he was ultimately paid $3,000. Papadopoulos met Halper several times during his stay, “having dinner one night at the Travellers Club, and Old London gentleman’s club frequented by international diplomats.”

They were accompanied by Halper’s assistant, a Turkish woman named Azra Turk. Sources familiar with Papadopoulos’s claims about his trip say Turk flirted with him during their encounters and later on in email exchanges.

Emails were also brought up during Papadopoulos’s meetings with Halper, though not by the Trump associate, according to sources familiar with his version of events. The sources say that during conversation, Halper randomly brought up Russians and emails. Papadopoulos has told people close to him that he grew suspicious of Halper because of the remark. –Daily Caller

Meanwhile, Halper targeted Carter Page two days after Page returned from a trip to Moscow.

Page’s visit to Moscow, where he spoke at the New Economic School on July 8, 2016, is said to have piqued the FBI’s interest even further. Page and Halper spoke on the sidelines of an election-themed symposium held at Cambridge days later. Former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and Sir Richard Dearlove, the former head of MI6 and a close colleague of Halper’s, spoke at the event.

Page would enter the media spotlight in September 2016 after Yahoo! News reported that the FBI was investigating whether he met with two Kremlin insiders during that Moscow trip.

It would later be revealed that the Yahoo! article was based on unverified information from Christopher Steele, the former British spy who wrote the dossier regarding the Trump campaign. Steele’s report, which was funded by Democrats, also claimed Page worked with Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort on the collusion conspiracy. –Daily Caller

A third target of Halper’s was Trump campaign co-chairman Sam Clovis, whose name was revealed by the Washington Post on Friday.

In late August 2016, the professor reached out to Clovis, asking if they could meet somewhere in the Washington area, according to Clovis’s attorney, Victoria Toensing.

“He said he wanted to be helpful to the campaign” and lend the Trump team his foreign-policy experience, Toensing said.

Clovis, an Iowa political figure and former Air Force officer, met the source and chatted briefly with him over coffee, on either Aug. 31 or Sept. 1, at a hotel cafe in Crystal City, she said. Most of the discussion involved him asking Clovis his views on China.

“It was two academics discussing China,” Toensing said. “Russia never came up.” –WaPo

Bruce Ohr is still employed by the Department of Justice, and Fusion GPS continues its hunt for Trump dirt after having partnered with former Feinstein aide and ex-FBI counterintelligence agent, Dan Jones and Steele.

It’s been nearly three years since an army of professional spies was unleashed on Trump, which morphed into the Mueller investigation – and he’s still standing.

end

Spartacus down? Spartacus down?

 

SWAMP STORIES COURTESY OF THE KING REPORT

and special thanks to Chris Powell of GATA for sending this down to us:

Texas Dems under investigation after sending voting applications with citizenship box pre-checked to non-citizens
 
@AmbJohnBolton on FridayHeading to Moscow tomorrow to meet with senior Russian leaders, including Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev, to continue discussions that began in Helsinki between our two countries.
     @danielhoffmanDC: Important behind the scenes diplomatic engagement with Russia from @AmbJohnBolton,  Former Director FSB Patrushev a key Putin loyalist.  Worth tracking potential discussion of Syria, Ukraine, arms control, North Korea, counterterrorism, and counterproliferation
 
@StratSentinel: US to leave Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty with Russia. This has been coming for a long time. Both sides, especially Russia have been violating for years. Policies discussing INF exploration were included in this year’s National Defense Strategy.
 
Pompeo scolds ABC News for ‘factually false’ report he listened to Khashoggi murder tape
 
100 ISIS Terrorists Caught in Guatemala as Central American Caravan Heads to U.S.
Several of the terrorists were Syrians caught with fake documents, according to Guatemala’s head of intelligence. At the same event, President Morales also revealed that Guatemalan authorities captured more than 1,000 gangbangers, including members of the MS-13…
 
Nunes: Soros ‘Should Know Better’ Than to Fund Protesting ‘Lunatics’ – House intel committee chairman reacted to the arrest of a left-wing activist accused of grabbing a female GOP staffer

 

END-

I HOPE TO SEE YOU ON TUESDAY

Harvey

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: