NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR NOV CONTRACT:0 NOTICE(S) FOR nil OZ

Total number of notices filed so far for NOV: 206 for 20600 OZ (0.6407 TONNES)

FOR NOVEMBER

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1 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

5,000 OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 1408 for 7,040,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE $4600: down $318

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $4481 down 455

end

XXXX

China is controlling the gold market

WE WILL NOT PROVIDE LONDON FIXES AS THEY ARE NOT ACCURATE AS TO WHAT IS GOING ON AT THE SAME TIME FRAME.

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE 1666 CONTRACTS FROM 224,619 DOWN TO 222,953 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S SMALL 3 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO AUGUST’S RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY(WELL OVER 30 MILLION OZ AT THE COMEX FOR JULY , 6 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST AND NOW JUST LESS THAN 31 MILLION OZ STANDING IN SEPTEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S. WE WERE NOTIFIED THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

0 EFP’S FOR NOV. 1219 EFP’S FOR DECEMBER AND 0 FOR MARCH AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 1219 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1219 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1219 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 6.095 MILLION OZ ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 3 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR THE JUNE/2018 COMEX DELIVERY MONTH. (5.420 MILLION OZ); 30.370 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN JULY, FOR AUGUST: 6.065 MILLION OZ AND 39.505 MILLION OZ STANDING IN SEPT. 2,520,000 OZ STANDING IN OCTOBER. AND NOW SO FAR A HUGE 7,055,000 OZ STANDING FOR NOVEMBER

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF NOV: 36,179 CONTRACTS (FOR 14 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 37,398 CONTRACTS) OR 186.990 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2671 CONTRACTS OR 13.35 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER: SO FAR THIS MONTH OF NOV: 186.99 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 26.71% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)* JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S: 2,613.07 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018: 236.879 MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018: 244.95 MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018: 236.67 MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL 2018: 385.75 MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MAY 2018: 210.05 MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JUNE 2018: 345.43 MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JULY 2018: 172.84 MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR AUGUST 2018: 205.23 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR SEPTEMBER 2018: 167,05 MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR OCTOBER 2018: 224.875 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1666 DESPITE THE SMALL 3 CENT RISE IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX //YESTERDAY. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A VERY GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1219 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE LOST A SMALL SIZED: 447 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 1219 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 1666 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THUS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 3 CENT RISE IN PRICE OF SILVER AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.43 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN THE BIG JULY DELIVERY MONTH OF SLIGHTLY OVER 30 MILLION OZ, IN AUGUST ANOTHER BIG 6.065 MILLION OZ IN A NON ACTIVE MONTH IN SEPTEMBER A FINAL MONSTROUS 39.05 MILLION OZ OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY, WITH HUGE DELIVERIES OF OVER 2 MILLION OZ IN OCTOBER (A NON DELIVERY MONTH) AND NOW 7.055 MILLION OZ IN NOVEMBER….... NOBODY IS PAYING ATTENTION TO THE HUGE NUMBER OF PHYSICAL OUNCES STANDING FOR SILVER THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS.

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.115 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 151% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT AUGUST MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 1 NOTICE(S) FOR 5,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018. AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018 (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ ) FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT: AN INITIAL HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz AND NOW NOV AT 7.055 MILLION OZ.
HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018: 244,196 CONTRACTS, WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/ AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND. TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 4685 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 523,490 DESPITE THE GAIN IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/YESTERDAY’S TRADING (A RISE IN PRICE OF $2.05).THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 5789 CONTRACTS:

NOVEMBER HAD 0 EFP’S ISSUED AND, DECEMBER HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 5789 CONTACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO. The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 523,490. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S. THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY. THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1130 CONTRACTS: 4659 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 5789 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN: 1130 CONTRACTS OR 113,000 OZ = 3.514 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ YESTERDAY TO THE TUNE OF $2.05.

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 3817 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF NOV : 102,179 CONTRACTS OR 10,217,900 OZ OR 317.600 TONNES (14 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 7298 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 14 TRADING DAY IN TONNES: 317.600 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 317.600/2550 x 100% TONNES = 12.45% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN JULY ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE: 6,534.62 TONNES *SURPASSED ANNUAL PROD’N

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018: 653.22 TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018: 649.45 TONNES (20 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018: 741.89 TONNES (22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR APRIL 2018: 713.84 TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MAY 2018: 693.80 TONNES ( 22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JUNE 2018 650.71 TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JULY 2018 605.5 TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR AUG. 2018 488.54 TONNES (23 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR SEPT 2018 470.64 TONNES (19 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR OCT. 2018 543.92 TONNES (23 TRADING DAYS)

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 4659 DESPITE THE GAIN IN PRICING ($2.05) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 5789 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED. THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX. I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 5789 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD AN FAIR GAIN OF 1130 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

5789 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 4659 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 3.514 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A GAIN OF $2.05 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX.

we had: 0 notice(s) filed upon for NIL oz of gold at the comex.

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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

WITH GOLD DOWN $3.95 TODAY: /

A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD

A DEPOSIT OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// THIS IS A GOOD SIGN!!

/GLD INVENTORY 760.86 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 760.86 tonnes.

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD. IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY

A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/

A DEPOSIT OF 563,000 OZ INTO THE SLV//

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.019 MILLION OZ.

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY 1666 CONTRACTS from 224,619 DOWN TO 222,953 AND MOVING A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 1 1/3 YEARS AGO. THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89. AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

i) 0 EFP’s for November… and

1219 CONTRACTS FOR DECEMBER. 0 CONTRACTS FOR MARCH AND AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1219 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 1666 CONTRACTS TO THE 1219 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S, WE OBTAIN A TINY NET LOSS OF 447 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS. THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 2.235 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST.. A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER., AND NOW 7.055 MILLION OZ STANDING IN NOVEMBER.

RESULT: A CONSIDERABLE DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 3 CENT PRICING GAIN THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER GOOD SIZED 1219 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

(report Harvey)

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT:

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 57.66 POINTS OR 2.13% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 531.61 POINTS OR 2.02% //The Nikkei closed DOWN 238.04 OR 1.09%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.47% /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP at 6.9430 AS POBC RESUMES ITS HUGE DEVALUATION /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER /Oil DOWN to 57.04 dollars per barrel for WTI and 66.28 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED DEEPLY IN THE RED//. ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.9430AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9410: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA/

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C/ CHINA

China’s growth over the past several years has been through state owned operations which have received loans from the banks. However corporates generally could not receive loans from the banks and had to rely on the shadow banking sector and cross guarantees from the state owned operations. We will now see a daisy chain of defaults has those cross guarantees become fulfilled

( zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)European trading; European afternoon

trouble ahead especially Italian 10 yr bond/credit default risks

( zerohedge)

ii)UK

Everywhere we look we see the global economy grinding to a halt. Today UK housing posts its first annual decline in 7 years.

( zerohedge)

iii)Theresa May gained a few conservatives on her side with the chance of having a ‘technological” solution to the hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. A hard border will keep the UK in a customs union for ever and that is something that Brexiteers do not want

( zerohedge)

iv)We know have knowledge that there is a secret plan (operation Temperer) ready in the UK for Martial law if there is a “no deal” Brexit

( zero hedge)

v)France

They are revolting in France on their stupid carbon tax and a tax on diesel fuel.. Massive road blocks have been created due to a Macron’s diesel fuel tax!!!

( Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

vi Germany/Deutsche bank

Deutsche bank shares hit bottom again to 8.30 Euros. Reason: money laundering fears brought on by the scandal of Danske

( zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)Saudi Arabia and Yemen agree for a ceasefire and to begin peace talks.

( zerohedge)

ii)Iraq/Iran

Seems that the Iraqi Dinar will replace the dollar and the Euro in trade between Iran and Iraq

(courtesy zerohedge)

iii) Saudi Arabia

Trump reaffirms support for MbS as we warns that the “world is a dangerous place”. Oil falls some more as the world realizes that Trump will not initiate sanctions against the oil Kingdom

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

The three commodities: oil, copper and lumber are all signaling we are already in the next economic downtur

( Michael Snyder/Economic Collapse blog)

7. OIL ISSUES

i)The collapse in crude illustrates to us the complete degradation in the global economy. The low oil price will be good for consumers and good for miners as costs go down. However it will be devastating our for oil drillers in the USA and we may see considerable defaults.

( zerohedge)

ii)Now below $52.00 per barrel triggering more shorts jumping on the bandwagon

( zerohedge)

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Bill Murphy of GATA believes that the next rally in the monetary metals will be an explosion. He may be right

( Bill Murphy/GATA)

Nicholas to Bill Murphy and Harvey Organ:

ii)Nicholas B. discusses the phoniness behind the EFP’s

(courtesy Nicholas B.)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

MARKET TRADING

Early morning: Nasdaq crashing, as Apple collapses

( zerohedge)

ii)Market data/

Housing is a large component in the calculation of GDP. Today starts and permits continue with their poor reports

( zerohedge)

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

a)Routine for the crooks; Soc Generale to Pay 1.3 billion USA to settle USA sanctions violations against Iran, Sudan and Cuba

( zerohedge)

b)David Stockman believes that the stock market will fall by 40%

( zerohedge)

iv)SWAMP STORIES

I guess Democrats just do not know how to accept defeat. They are planning to boycott filming in Georgia after Stacey Abrams defeat

(courtesy Mac Slavo.SHFTPlan.com)

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

Let us head over to the comex:

The total gold comex open interest FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 4659 CONTRACTS DOWN to an OI level 523,490 DESPITE THE RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($2.05 IN YESTERDAY’S COMEX TRADING). FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE. ONCE WE GET TO FIRST DAY NOTICE, THEN THE OPEN INTEREST RISES AND AGAIN THEY DID NOT DISAPPOINT US.

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV.. THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 5789 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

NOV: 0 EFP’S AND DECEMBER: 5789 AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 5789 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST 48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 1130 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 5789 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A CONSIDERABLE 4659 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 1130 contracts OR 113,000 OZ OR 3.514 TONNES.

We are now in the non active contract month of November. For the November contract month, we have 5 notices standing so we LOST 1 contracts. We had 1 notice served YESTERDAY so we gained 0 contracts or an additional NIL oz of gold will stand for gold at the comex and these guys refused to morphed into London based forwards as well as negate receiving a fiat bonus for the trouble.

The next delivery month after November is the very big December contract month and here the OI FELL by 17,827 contracts to 271,493 contracts. January saw a FALL TO 3452 FOR A LOSS OF 68 CONTRACTS. February gained 11,738 contracts to stand at 174,368 contracts.

FOR COMPARISON TO THE 2017 CONTRACT MONTH:

ON NOV 16/2017 WE HAD 268,091 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS COMPARED TO THIS YEAR: 271,493.

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE DEC 1/2017: 37.035 TONNES STOOD FOR DELIVERY

EVENTUALLY BY DEC 31.2017: 28.592 TONNES STOOD AND THE REST MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

AS A REMINDER WE HAVE ONLY 4.000 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD READY TO SERVE UPON OUR DEC LONGS.

WE HAD 0 NOTICES FILED AT THE COMEX FOR NIL OZ.

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI FELL BY 1666 CONTRACTS FROM 224,619 DOWN TO 222,953 (AND CLOSER THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018. (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S GOOD OI COMEX GAIN OCCURRED WITH A 3 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOVEMBER AND, WE WERE INFORMED THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED 1219 EFP CONTRACTS: FOR NOVEMBER: 0 CONTRACTS AND FOR …

FOR DECEMBER: 1219 CONTRACTS, FOR MARCH 0 CONTRACTS, AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS. THESE EFPS WERE ISSUED TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 1219. ON A NET BASIS WE LOST 447 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A 1666 CONTRACT LOSS AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 1219 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 447 CONTRACTS...AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 3 CENT GAIN IN PRICING// YESTERDAY

We are now in the non active delivery month of NOVEMBER and here we now have 4 notices standing for a gain of 1 contacts. We had 0 notices served upon yesterday so we gained 1 contracts or an additional nil oz will stand for delivery as these longs refused to morph into London based forwards as well as not accepting a fiat bonus for their efforts.

After November, we have a December contract and here we LOST 9014 contracts DOWN to 115,403. January saw a GAIN of 21 contracts up to 1272 contracts. March, the next big delivery month after December saw a gain of 6839 contracts up to 84,081

FOR COMPARISON TO THE COMEX 2017 CONTRACT MONTH:

ON NOV 16. 2017 WE HAD STILL 97,984 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS LEFT TO BE SERVED UPON AND THIS COMPARES TO TODAY: 115,403 CONTRACTS

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE DEC 1.2017 WE HAD A RATHER LARGE: 19.47 MILLION OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY

BY THE END OF DECEMBER: 33.295 MILLION OZ AS QUEUE JUMPING WAS THE NAME OF THE GAME IN SILVER.

INITIAL standings for NOV/GOLD

NOV 20-/2018.

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory in oz*	nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer* Inventory in oz*	9,658,082 oz Brinks HSBC
Deposits to the Dealer* Inventory in oz*	NIL oz
Deposits to the Customer* Inventory, in oz*	nil oz
No of oz served (contracts) today	0 notice(s) NIL OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)	5 contracts (500 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	206 notices 20600 OZ 0.6409 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer* inventory this month*	xxx oz

we had 0 dealer entry:

total gold entering dealer: 0 oz

total gold withdrawing from the dealer; 0 oz

we had 0 kilobar transaction/

we had 2 withdrawal out of the customer account:

i )out of Brinks: 2094.102 oz:

ii) Out if HSBC: 6563.980 oz

FOR THE NOV 2018 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 0 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the NOV/2018. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (206) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV. (5 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (0 x 100 oz per contract) equals 21,100 OZ OR 0.6562 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this non active month of NOV

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the NOV/2018 contract month:

No of notices served (206 x 100 oz) + {5)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (0x 100 oz )which equals 21100 oz standing OR 0.6562 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of NOVEMBER.

WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL NIL WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS THESE LONGS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS. QUEUE JUMPING IN GOLD DID RETURN AS THE DEALERS QUEUE JUMPING OBTAINING GOLD AS THEY TRY AND PUT OUT FIRES ELSEWHERE.

THERE ARE ONLY 3.995 TONNES OF REGISTERED COMEX GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 0.6562 TONNES STANDING FOR NOVEMBER

total registered or dealer gold: 128,451.881 oz or 3.995tonnes

total registered and eligible (customer) gold; 8,015,760.647 oz 249.32 tonnes

I BELIEVE THAT THIS IS THE LOWEST REGISTERED GOLD READING IN THE COMEX HISTORY..AS WELL AS THE LONGEST WE HAVE SEEN THE REGISTERED COLUMN AT 5 TONNES OR LESS. WE HAVE NOW BROKEN THE 4 TONNES BARRIER TO READ; 3.995 TONNES OF DEALER (REGISTERED) GOLD.

IN THE LAST 27 MONTHS 108 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: THERE IS NO GOLD AT THE COMEX..AS THE CROOKS SEEMS TO BE FORCING LONGS TO TAKE DELIVERY OF LONDON FORWARDS AND NOT TAKE POSSESSION OF ANY GOLD AT THE COMEX/

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE NOV DELIVERY MONTH

NOV INITIAL standings/SILVER

NOV 20, 2018

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory*	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	2,395,979.705oz Brinks I _ D CNT Scotia
Deposits to the Dealer* Inventory*	NIL oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	599,758.813 oz oz CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)	1 CONTRACT(S) 5,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	3 contracts (15,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	1408 contracts (7,040,000 oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer* inventory this month*

ii)Into CNT : 2,395,979.705 OZ

i) Out of Brinks: 3931.500 oz

ii) Out of I D: 29,169.465 oz

iiii) Out of Scotia: 1,111,770.480 oz

iv) Out of CNT: 1,251,108.260 oz

total withdrawals: 2,395,979.705 oz

we had 2 adjustments

i) Out of Brinks: 75,284.310 oz was adjusted out of the customer and this landed into the dealer account of Brinks’

ii) Out of CNT: 823,170.159 oz was adjusted out of the dealer and this landed into the customer account of CNT

total dealer silver: 79.922 million

total dealer + customer silver: 292.711 million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the NOV 2018. contract month is represented by 1 contract(s) FOR 5,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOV., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1408 x 5,000 oz = 7,040,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV. (4) and the number of notices served upon today (1 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the NOV/2018 contract month: 1408(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of NOV( 4) -number of notices served upon today (1)x 5000 oz equals 7,055,000 oz of silver standing for the NOV contract month. This is a gigantic number of oz standing for an off delivery month. Somebody is after a large supply of physical silver. We GAINED 1 contracts or an additional 5,000 OZ will stand at the comex as these longs refused to accept a London based forwards as well as negating the right to receive a fiat bonus.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 132,978 CONTRACTS …

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 80,240 CONTRACTS…

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 80,240CONTRACTS EQUATES to 249 million OZ 57.38% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -4.90% (NOV 20/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -0.99% to NAV (NOV 20/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -4.90%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.29/TRADING 11.75/DISCOUNT 4.65

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

NOV 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.95: A BIG CHANGE: A GOOD SIZED DEPOSIT OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.86 TONNES

NOV 19/WITH GOLD UP $2.05: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.68 TONNES

NOV 16/WITH GOLD UP $8.00: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.48 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.68 TONNES

NOV 15/WITH GOLD UP $5.35/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.16 TONNES

NOV 14/WITH GOLD UP $8.15: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.16 TONNES

NOV 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.75: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 6.77 TONNES AT THE GLD/THAT SHOULD END THE WHACKING OF GOLD FOR NOW AND A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 84 TONNES: INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.16 TONNES

NOV 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.65: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.23

NOV 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.23 TONNES

NOV 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.30: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.23 TONNES

NOV 7/WITH GOLD UP $2.60″ NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.70 TONNES

NOV 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.80 A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .58 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.70 TONES

NOV 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.05 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.77 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.29 TONNES

NOV 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.05: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.06 TONNES

NOV 1/: 2 TRANSACTIONS:WITH GOLD UP $23.85,A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .80 TONNES OF GOLD TO PAY FOR FEES, INSURANCE AND STORAGE: INVENTORY AT THE GLD RESTS AT 754.06 TONNES THEN A DEPOSIT OF 6.76 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.82

OCT 31: WITH GOLD DOWN $11.35: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RE3STS AT 754.94 TONNES

OCT 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 754.94 TONNES

OCTOBER 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.75 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 749.64 TONNES

OCTOBER 26/WITH GOLD UP $3.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 749.64 TONNES

OCT 25/WITH GOLD UP $1.15: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 749.64 TONNES. FROM ITS LOW POINT AT THE BEGINNING OF OCTOBER THE GLD HAS ADDED.19.47 TONNES OF GOLD

OCT 23/WITH GOLD UP $11.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.88 TONNES

Oct 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.90 TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.97 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 745.82

AND THEN: A DEPOSIT OF 2.06 TONNES SUCH THAT THE FINAL RESTING INVENTORY IS 747.88 TONNES

OCT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.70 : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 748.76 TONNES

OCT 18/WITH GOLD UP $2.80/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RSTS AT 748.76 TONNES

OCT 16/WITH GOLD UP BY ONLY $1.00/WE HAD ANOTHER 4.12 TONNES OF GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 748.76 TONNES

OCT 15/WITH GOLD UP $8.45/ANOTHER 5.65 TONNES OF GOLD WAS ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 744.64 TONNES

OCT 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.35/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.99 TONNES

OCT 11/WITH GOLD UP $35.20 TODAY: A HUGE PAPER GOLD INVENTORY GAIN OF 8.82 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.99 TONNES

OCT 10/WITH GOLD UP $2.65 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17 TONNES

OCT 9/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17

OCT 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.60 NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17TONNES

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

NOV 20.2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 760.86 tonnes

*IN LAST 500 TRADING DAYS: 174.29 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 400 TRADING DAYS: A NET 14.29 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM GLD INVENTORY.

end

Now the SLV Inventory/

NOV 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 563,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.019 MILLION OZ/

NOV 19/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ/

NOV 16/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ/

NOV 15/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ

NOV 14/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ

NOV 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS; A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 328,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ/

NOV 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS/ A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY A THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 940,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.784 MILLION OZ

NOV 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.724 MILLION OZ/

NOV 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 281,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.724 MILLION OZ.

NOV 7: WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.005 MILLION OZ/

NOV 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.005 MILLION OZ/

NOV 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.315 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.005 MILLION OZ/

NOV 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 143,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 327.320 MILLION OZ/

NOV 1/WITH SILVER UP 54 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.033 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. /INVENTORY RESTS AT 327.463 MILLION OZ.

OCT 31/WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.496 MILLION OZ/

OCT 30/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.496 MILLION OZ

OCTOBER 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS NO A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.879 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.496 MILLION OZ.

OCTOBER 26/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 330.375 MILLION OZ

OCT 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS: ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.315 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 330.375 MILLION OZ/

OCT 23/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS/A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.819 MILLION OZ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 331.690 MILLION OZ.

OCT 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 470,000/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.509 MILLION OZ/

OCT 19/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INV. RESTS AT 334.039 MILLION OZ

OCT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.127 MILLION /RESTS AT 334.039 MILLION OZ/

OCT 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 15/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 12/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 11/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 9/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ

OCT 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS, A GOOD SIZE WITHDRAWAL OF 563,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ.

NOV 20/2018:

Inventory 325.019 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

SMALL JUMP IN LIBOR RATES TODAY./

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.42/ and libor 6 month duration 2.87

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .45

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.67%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 3.11

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE = +.44

end

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

end

i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Stocks are Now in ‘Complete Bitcoin Territory,’ Asset Manager Says

20, November

Asset management firm Fasanara Capital compared stock valuations to bitcoin in that “it is totally disconnected from fundamentals,” its chief executive told CNBC
Impending tipping point for markets is due to a synchronicity of enterprise overvaluation, high indebtedness, low cash balances and a drawback in public flows
Still, a major selloff hasn’t arrived, and many market-watchers continue to celebrate the enduring bull run

Fragile markets are “on the edge of chaos,” according to one asset management firm, which has compared what it deems an overvalued stock market to cryptocurrency bubbles.

“Stocks are in complete bitcoin territory,” Francesco Filia, chief executive at asset management firm Fasanara Capital told CNBC Wednesday. The impending tipping point for markets, per Fasanara’s analysis, is due to a synchronicity of enterprise overvaluation, high indebtedness, low cash balances and a drawback in flows from central banks.

“Valuations on stocks sometimes feel like bitcoin because in a way it is totally disconnected from fundamentals,” Filia explained. “It’s purely based on sentiment and flows from central banks and the private passive investment community.”

Read the full article on CNBC.com

News and Commentary

PRECIOUS-Gold steady in slow trading, muted dollar supports (Reuters.com)

Bitcoin price plunges below $4,500 mark in new 2018 low (TheGuardian.com)

Wall Street tumbles as Apple, internet stocks swoon (Reuters.com)

PRECIOUS-Gold firm as uncertainty about U.S. rates saps dollar (Reuters.com)

Image Credits: Reuters.com

Brexit deal latest news: Spain threatens to veto agreement over Gibraltar clause (Telegraph.co.uk)

Markets think Powell ‘blinked’ in Dallas (MarketWatch.com)

Gold worth $37 billion traded in London each day, new data shows (Reuters.com)

2018 U.S. DOLLAR RALLY SHATTERS EXPECTATIONS! (WealthResearchGroup.com)

Listen on SoundCloud , Blubrry & iTunes. Watch on YouTube below

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

19 Nov: USD 1,223.55, GBP 951.07 & EUR 1,070.97 per ounce
16 Nov: USD 1,215.80, GBP 948.93 & EUR 1,073.07 per ounce
15 Nov: USD 1,210.60, GBP 948.26 & EUR 1,072.71 per ounce
14 Nov: USD 1,201.45, GBP 927.04 & EUR 1,066.05 per ounce
13 Nov: USD 1,197.55, GBP 928.70 & EUR 1,066.18 per ounce
12 Nov: USD 1,207.05, GBP 940.05 & EUR 1,072.34 per ounce
09 Nov: USD 1,219.05, GBP 936.96 & EUR 1,075.81 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

19 Nov: USD 14.36, GBP 11.21 & EUR 12.57 per ounce
16 Nov: USD 14.29, GBP 11.15 & EUR 12.61 per ounce
15 Nov: USD 14.13, GBP 11.02 & EUR 12.49 per ounce
14 Nov: USD 13.97, GBP 10.80 & EUR 12.39 per ounce
13 Nov: USD 14.02, GBP 10.85 & EUR 12.46 per ounce
12 Nov: USD 14.16, GBP 11.00 & EUR 12.57 per ounce
09 Nov: USD 14.34, GBP 11.01 & EUR 12.63 per ounce

Recent Market Updates

– Brexit’s Safe Haven Is a Dangerous Place
– Gold and Silver Rise As Stocks Fall On Valuation Concerns, Italy and Brexit Risks
– Pound Falls 2.5% Against Gold as UK Government in Turmoil Over Brexit
– GoldCore Capitalising On Brexit With Dublin Gold Vault
– Store Gold In The Safest Vaults In Ireland
– Investors Set To Store Gold In Dublin Due To Brexit Risks
– Investors Start Buying Gold ETFs In October In Bullish Shift
– As Brexit Looms and Stocks Plunge In October – Now May Be The Time to Invest in Gold
– AMERICAN ELECTIONS FARCE AS POLITICIANS IGNORE THE LOOMING $121.7 TRILLION DEBT CRISIS
– Gold ETFs See Strong Demand In Volatile October After Robust Global Gold Demand In Q3
– Venezuela Seeks To Repatriate $550 Million Of Gold From London

Mark O’Byrne

Executive Director

NOV 20

ii) GATA stories

Bill Murphy of GATA believes that the next rally in the monetary metals will be an explosion. He may be right

(courtesy Bill Murphy/GATA)

Next rally in monetary metals will be an explosion, GATA chairman says

Submitted by cpowell on Tue, 2018-11-20 02:48. Section: Daily Dispatches

9:49p ET Monday, November 19, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GATA Chairman Bill Murphy, interviewed by Lior Gantz of Wealth Research Group, discusses the monetary metals price suppression scheme and the likelihood that its failure will produce an explosion in prices rather than a gradual rally. The interview is 13 minutes long and can be heard at Wealth Research Group’s internet site here:

https://www.wealthresearchgroup.com/2018-u-s-dollar-rally-shatters-expec…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

(GATA) Chilton says CFTC found much evidence of silver rigging; Schiff calls rigging ‘rumor’

Submitted by cpowell on 03:58PM ET Tuesday, November 20, 2018. Section: Daily Dispatches

11:03a ET Tuesday, November 20, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Bart Chilton, the former member of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission who pushed his agency to hold in a March 2010 public hearing that addressed manipulation of the monetary metals markets and called GATA leaders as witnesses, this year has been hosting Russia Today’s daily “Boom/Bust” program, and last Thursday he interviewed fund manager and gold advocate Peter Schiff about market manipulation.

On the program Chilton revealed that during his service on the CFTC the commission found “all sorts of evidence of attempted manipulation and manipulation” of the silver market “but not enough to actually prosecute.”

.. …

Of course two weeks ago a former JPMorganChase trader confessed in federal court to manipulating the silver market with the knowledge of his superiors even while the CFTC was investigating:

http://www.gata.org/node/18596

In his comments to Chilton, Schiff remained dismissive of what he called “rumors” of manipulation of the monetary metals markets, while acknowledging that “some of the rumors are probably true.” Manipulation, Schiff argued, is not the big reason for the poor performance of the monetary metals in recent years. Rather, Schiff said, investors are just too stupid to understand what is going on in the world financial system — not that Schiff himself ever has done much to help them understand how governments long have been intervening in the monetary metals markets to support their currencies and bond prices.

Last Thursday’s edition of “Boom/Bust” is can be viewed at Russia Today here —

https://www.rt.com/shows/boom-bust/444025-amazon-gold- prices-plane/

— and the interview with Schiff is four minutes long, extending from the 5:44 to 9:48 marks.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer

Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.

CPowell@GATA.org

iii) Other Physical stories

Nicholas to Bill Murphy and Harvey Organ:

Nicholas discusses the phoniness behind the EFP’s

(courtesy Nicholas)

I have added to my routine Dane Wigington’s weekly podcast;it truly is terrifying, and explains what is happening in California etc.Apparently one of the aims of climate engineering is to protect the Eastern seaboard of USA, but since an arctic blast will engineer record low Thanksgiving temperatures on Thursday,could it be that these Lords of the Universe have devastated the entire planet with no discernible beneficiaries whatsoever? Fukushima Daihatsu is now considered to have the potential to morph into an extinction level event and climate engineering is possibly an extinction level process, so what can possibly go wrong?This prognosis for imminent global cataclysmic disaster places the ongoing gold/silver manipulation in a better perspective .

It is more reassuring to focus on the little Surrey village of Ockam,which in 14th century was the birthplace of a Franciscan friar,William.Let us seek to draw upon Friar William’s wisdom.Month after month, the volumes of vault holdings of both gold and silver as disseminated (three months in arrears) by the LBMA display metronomic consistency, with some grinding declines in the reported volumes of GLD vault gold as the principal microscopic variant.The reported BOE gold holdings never vary from a level just below 5,200 tonnes and ,after subtracting the gold supposedly held in storage by the GLD custodians and sub-custodians, the residual LBMA vault gold is about 1,650 tonnes,which must satisfy the combined claims of all owners of allocated gold.(Is there any demented sole left on the planet who still believes that unallocated gold is anything other than a fraudulent paper product?) In the case of silver,the SLV custodians report vault holdings of about 324 million ounces, leaving constant residual LBMA silver holdings of about 780 million ounces.

Harvey Organ now reports Exchange for Physical (EFP) silver volumes as 2,607 million ounces and gold volumes at 6,506 tonnes, and these aggregates are just in respect of 2018 only and continue to augment on a daily basis.The gross volumes of these EFPs now exceed nearly four times the net residual LBMA vault holdings in the case of both precious metals,and what about all other claimants on these LBMA vaulted metals? Let us return to the philosophical wisdom of Friar William of Ockam:

Occam’s razor is the problem-solving principle that the simplest solution tends to be the correct one. When presented with competing hypotheses to solve a problem, one should select the solution with the fewest assumptions.Therefore the explanation of EFP contracts is that they merely represent the netting off of criminally manipulative paper contracts between collaborating counter parties,so when these contracts are contrad off on a daily basis ,that is the end of the story.Hijacking the term ‘physical” into the nomenclature of this fraud created a wonderful smokescreen.Indeed the realization that much COMEX paper trade is merely being executed between collaborating counter parties explains the high volumes of paper trades,which are sometimes inexplicable within the context of only microscopic price movements.No wonder all the plethora of regulators on both sides of the Atlantic are so relaxed -there is nothing to see here at all other than criminal blatant market manipulation by the Lords of the Universe.Within the grand scheme of things,however, the criminal scientists who keep quiet about the atrocities of climate engineering in order to secure a pay cheque and a pension are probably far worse enemies of humanity than these complicit regulators. .

Regards

__________________________________________

Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results, important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP TO 6.9430/HUGE DEVALUATION FOR THE PAST FOUR WEEKS RESUMES/CHINESE COMING TO USA FOR TRADE TALKS IN NOVEMBER NOW ON //OFFSHORE YUAN: 6.9410 /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 57.66 POINTS OR 2.13%

. HANG SANG CLOSED DOWN 531.66 POINTS OR 2.02%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 238.04 POINTS OR 1.09%

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED

/USA dollar index RISES TO 96.37/Euro FALLS TO 1.1420

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. +.10/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 112.35/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 57.04 and Brent: 66.10

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP/ CHINESE YUAN: ON SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.35%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 3.61% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.65%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 3.26: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 4.67

3k Gold at $1225.95 silver at:14.43 7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 3/100 in roubles/dollar) 65.65

3m oil into the 57 dollar handle for WTI and 66 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 112.35DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9918 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1328 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to +0.35%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 3.04% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.30%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6. TURKISH LIRA: UP TO 5.3618

“A Sea Of Red”: Global Stocks Plunge With Tech

Shares In Freefall

While there was some nuance in yesterday’s pre-open trading, with Asia at least putting up a valiant defense to what would soon become another US rout, this morning the market theme is far simpler: a global sea of red.

Stocks fell across the globe as worries over softening demand for the iPhone prompted a tech stock selloff across the world, while the arrest of car boss Carlos Ghosn pulled Nissan and Renault sharply lower. Even China’s recent rally fizzled and the Shanghai composite closed down 2.1% near session lows, signalling that the global slump led by tech shares would deepen Tuesday, adding a new layer of pessimism to markets already anxious over trade. Treasuries advanced and the dollar edged higher.

S&P 500 futures traded near session lows, down 0.6% and tracking a fall in European and Asian shares after renewed weakness in the tech sector pushed Nasdaq futures sharply lower for a second day after Monday’s 3% plunge and crippled any hopes for dip buying. News around Apple triggered the latest bout of stock market selling, after the Wall Street Journal reported the consumer tech giant is cutting production for its new iPhones.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index dropped a fifth day as its technology sector fell 1.3% to the lowest level since February 2017, taking the decline from mid-June peak to 21% and entering a bear market. Not surprisingly, the tech sector was the worst performer on the European benchmark on Tuesday, following Apple’s decline to near bear-market territory and U.S. tech stocks plunge during recent sell-off. The selloff was compounded by an auto sector drop led by Nissan and Renault after Ghosn, chairman of both carmakers, was arrested in Japan for alleged financial misconduct. The European auto sector was not far behind, dropping 1.6 percent, and the broad European STOXX 600 index was down 0.9 percent to a four-week low.

“Most of Europe had a red session yesterday and that has been compounded by the news on Apple and tech stocks overnight, The overall climate is risk off,” said Investec economist Philip Shaw. “Beyond stocks, the Italian bonds spread (over German bonds) is at its widest in about a month now, and Brexit continues to rumble on – uncertainty is very much hurting risk sentiment,” he added.

Earlier, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dropped 1.2 percent, with Samsung Electronics falling 2 percent. In Japan, Sony Corp shed 3.1 percent. Japan’s Nikkei slipped 1.1 percent, with shares of Nissan Motor Co tumbling more than 5% after Ghosn’s arrest and on news he will be fired from the board this week.

Meanwhile, as noted yesterday, the CDS index of US investment grade issuers blew out to the widest level since the Trump election, signaling renewed nerves about the asset class.

Exactly two months after the S&P hit all time highs, stocks have been caught in a vicious decline and continue to struggle for support as some of the technology companies that helped drive the S&P 500 to a record high earlier this year tumbled amid a slowdown in consumer sales and fears over regulation, many of them entering a bear market.

At the same time, a more gloomy macro outlook is emerging, with Goldman chief equity strategist David kostin overnight recommending investors hold more cash even as it reiterated its base case of S&P 3000 in 2019.

Ray Dalio disagreed, and said that investors should expect low returns for a long time after enjoying years of low interest rates from central-bank stimulus.

“The easy days of long, global bull markets where you can invest in a tracker for five basis points — I say this as an active fund manager — and watch the thing go up, I think those days are gone,” Gerry Grimstone, chairman of Barclays Bank PLC and Standard Life Aberdeen PLC, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “It’s going to be a move back to value investing, and back to the Warren Buffett-style of investment.”

In the latest Brexit news, UK PM May is reportedly drawing up secret plans to drop the Irish border backstop and win support from angry Brexiteers, while reports added PM May has received agreement from the EU to drop the backstop plan if both sides can agree on alternative arrangements to keep the border open. Meanwhile, Brexiteers reportedly still lack the sufficient number of signatures required to trigger a no-confidence vote against UK PM May, the FT reported. In related news, Brexit rebels reportedly admitted attempts to oust PM May has stalled as Eurosceptic MPs turned on each other. The Telegraph also reported that the confidence vote now appears to be on hold until after Parliament votes in December on Mrs May’s Brexit deal.

Sky News reported that the UK government are to publish new analysis before the MPs’ meaningful vote on the Withdrawal Agreement comparing the “costs and benefits” of Brexit. The impact of three scenarios will be measured; no Brexit, no deal, and leaving with the government’s draft deal and a free trade agreement.

In rates, Treasuries rose, driving the 10-year yield down to its lowest level since late September, ahead of Thanksgiving Thursday. Italian government bond yields jumped to one-month high on Tuesday and Italian banking stocks dropped to a two-year low, hurt by risk aversion and concerns over the Italian budget. Euro zone money markets no longer fully price in even a 10 bps rate rise from the European Central Bank in 2019, indicating growing investor concern about the economic outlook in the currency bloc.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index whipsawed in early London trading even as it stayed near a more than one-week low on concern cooling global growth will slow the pace of Fed rate hikes, keeping Treasury yields under pressure. At the same time, the pound stabilized as Theresa May appealed to business leaders to help deliver her Brexit deal, and evidence mounted that a plot to oust her as U.K. Prime Minister is faltering.

The euro slid as Italian bonds dropped, pushing the yield spread to Germany to the widest in a month; the currency had opened the London session higher, supported by corporate buying in EUR/GBP. The yen rallied to a month-to-date high as Asian stocks followed a U.S. equity slide while the New Zealand dollar got a boost from a jump in milk production; the Aussie was on the back foot even after the RBA said Australia’s unemployment rate could fall further in the near term. India’s rupee rallied a sixth day after the central bank signaled a compromise with the government in their dispute over reserves.

Bitcoin extended its drop below $4,500 for the first time since October 2017.

WTI crude oil futures hovered around $57 a barrel after oil prices lost steam as fears about slower global demand and a surge in U.S. production outweighed expected supply cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Brent crude slipped 0.9 percent to $66.21 per barrel.

In other overnight news, BoJ Governor Kuroda said there is currently no need to ease further, while he added that there was a need for bold monetary policy in 2013 and now we need to persistently continue with policy. Furthermore, Kuroda suggested that the chance of reaching the 2% inflation target during FY2020 is low. Japanese PM Abe says the next initial budget is to have measures to address sales tax.

India’s Finance Ministry sources expect that the RBI will stand pat on rates at its meeting next month.

RBA Governor Lowe states that steady policy is to be maintained for ‘a while yet’ and it is likely that rates will increase at some point if the economy progresses as expected.

Expected data include housing starts and building permits. Best Buy, Campbell Soup, Lowe’s, Medtronic, Target, TJX, and Gap are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures down 0.8% to 2,676.00
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.5% to 353.25
MXAP down 1% to 150.89
MXAPJ down 1.2% to 481.70
Nikkei down 1.1% to 21,583.12
Topix down 0.7% to 1,625.67
Hang Seng Index down 2% to 25,840.34
Shanghai Composite down 2.1% to 2,645.85
Sensex down 0.8% to 35,498.94
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.4% to 5,671.79
Kospi down 0.9% to 2,082.58
German 10Y yield fell 1.4 bps to 0.359%
Euro down 0.2% to $1.1433
Italian 10Y yield rose 10.4 bps to 3.223%
Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.3 bps to 1.653%
Brent futures down 0.8% to $66.23/bbl
Gold spot little changed at $1,223.14
U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 96.29

Top Overnight News

Bank of England governor Carney appears before lawmakers on Tuesday. He’ll be joined by fellow interest-rate setters Jon Cunliffe, Andy Haldane and Michael Saunders. Treasury Committee Chair Nicky Morgan has already asked the BOE to assess any agreement
While Salvini is threatening to hijack the EU agenda as the dispute over Italy’s 2019 budget heats up, his closest adviser is trying to steer the populist coalition away from a head-on clash with Brussels, according to senior government and League officials who asked not to be named discussing confidential matters
Credit markets are set for the worst year since the global financial crisis as investors abandon hope of a late-2018 rally
Turmoil engulfed cryptocurrency markets again on Tuesday, with every major coin extending a rout that’s rocking confidence in the nascent asset class. Bitcoin, which started the year at more than $14,000, has fallen below $4,500. Rivals including Ether, Litecoin and XRP joined the slide, though they pared losses that reached as much as 17 percent
Evidence is mounting that the plot to oust U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May is faltering. One rebel leader said in private that more than 50 Tories had claimed they would submit letter but they hadn’t all followed through
Germany and France have warned the EU to do more to prevent the U.K. from being able to claim victory in Brexit talks, according to EU diplomats. Spain’s Foreign Minister said the EU shouldn’t accept a text on a Brexit agreement that Spain isn’t happy with
U.K. Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn said he wants to keep a second Brexit referendum open as an option
Australia’s unemployment rate may fall further in the near term based on leading indicators of labor demand, the central bank said in minutes of its November meeting
Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda says he welcomes a diversity of opinion on the effectiveness of negative rates. He also said he believes continuing current policy is best approach for achieving the central bank’s inflation target

Asian stock markets were lower across the board as the risk averse tone rolled over from Wall St, where the tech sector led the sell-off as Apple shares dropped nearly 4% on reports it had reduced production orders and with all FAANG stocks now in bear market territory. As such, the tech sector underperformed in the ASX 200 (-0.4%) and Nikkei 225 (-1.1%) was also pressured with Mitsubishi Motors and Nissan among the worst hit after their Chairman Ghosn was arrested on financial misconduct allegations. Shanghai Comp. (-2.1%) and Hang Seng (-2.0%) were heavily pressured after the PBoC continued to snub liquidity operations and as China’s blue-chip tech names conformed to the global rout in the sector, while JD.com earnings added to the glum as China’s 2nd largest e-commerce firm posted its weakest revenue growth since turning public. Finally, 10yr JGBs were weaker amid profit taking after futures recently hit their highest in around a year and following mixed results at today’s 20yr auction.

Top Asian News

BlackRock Doesn’t Expect Significant Growth Slowdown in China
China Stocks Lead Global Losses as Tech Rout Hits Fragile Market
Stock Traders in Asia Keep Finding New Reasons to Hit ’Sell’
World’s Largest Ikea to Open in Manila as Company Bets on Asia

Major European indices are largely in the red, with the SMI outperforming (+0.1%) which is being bolstered by Novartis (+1.0%) following their announcement of a joint digital treatment with Pear Therapeutics for substance abuse disorder. The DAX (-0.7%) is lagging its peers, weighed on by Wirecard (-5.0%) following a disappointing change to guidance forecasting as well as weak sentiment across IT names after the FAANG stocks entered bear market territory on Wall St. In particular, the Stoxx 600 Technology sector (-1.9%), dropped to its lowest level since Feb 2017. Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank (-2.5%) are in the red due to reports that the Co processed payments for Danske Bank in Estonia.

Top European News

Draghi’s Man in Rome Shows Populists Alert to Budget Backlash
BASF Targets $2.3 Billion Profit Boost From Corporate Revamp
Danske Fights Back as Hush Money Claims Raise New Questions
The One Thing Supercharging Europe Earnings in 2018 Is Crashing
As Things Stand, Spain Will Vote Against Brexit Deal: Sanchez

In FX, the DXY index remains technically prone to further downside pressure having closed below another Fib support level yesterday and testing the next bearish chart area around 96.050-10 ahead of 96.000 even. However, a more concerted bout of risk-off trade/positioning saved the DXY and broad Dollar from steeper declines as the tech-induced sell-off in stocks intensified, and jitters over Brexit alongside the Italian budget returned to the fore.

NZD/AUD – The Kiwi is bucking the overall trend and outperforming in contrast to this time on Monday, with Nzd/Usd rebounding firmly to 0.6850+ levels and Aud/Nzd retreating through 1.0650 to just south of 1.0600 following overnight data showing a hefty 6.5% y/y rise in NZ milk collections for October. Conversely, the Aud/Usd has slipped back under 0.7300 again, and close to 0.7250 in wake of RBA minutes underscoring no rush to hike rates and subsequent affirmation of wait-and-see guidance from Governor Lowe. In fact, he asserts that the jobless rate could decline to 4.5% vs 5% at present without inducing wage inflation, while also underlining concerns about the supply of credit.

JPY/CHF – Both benefiting from their more intrinsic allure during periods of pronounced risk aversion and investor angst, as Usd/Jpy probes a bit deeper below 112.50 and a key Fib at 112.46 that could be pivotal on a closing basis with potential to expose daily chart support circa 112.16 ahead of 112.00. Meanwhile, the Franc has inched closer to 0.9900 and over 1.1350 vs the Eur that remains burdened with the aforementioned Italian fiscal concerns.

GBP/EUR – Almost a case of déjà vu for Sterling and the single currency as early attempts to the upside vs the Greenback saw Cable and Eur/Usd revisit recent peaks around 1.2880 and 1.1470 respectively, but a combination of chart resistance and bearish fundamentals forced both back down to circa 1.2825 and 1.1425. In terms of precise technical/psychological levels, 1.2897 and 1.1445 represent Fib retracements, ahead of 1.2900 and 1.1500, while the Pound has remained relatively unchanged and unresponsive to largely on the fence pending Brexit rhetoric from the BoE in testimony to the TSC on November’s QIR.

In commodities, gold has stayed within a USD 5/oz range and traded relatively flat throughout the session moving with the steady dollar ahead of US Thanksgiving. Similarly, copper traded lacklustre breaking a 5-day rally because of a subdued risk sentiment stemming from ongoing US-China trade tensions; with Shanghai rebar adversely affected from these factors. Brent (-0.1%) and WTI (+0.2%) are following a relatively quiet overnight session, while recent upticks in the complex resulted in WTI reclaiming the USD 57/bbl and Brent edging closer to USD 67/bbl. This follows comments from IEA Chief Birol that Iranian oil exports declined by almost 1mln BPD from summer peaks. Looking ahead, traders will be keeping the weekly API crude inventory data which is expected to print a build of 8.79mln barrels.

On today’s light data calendar, in the US, there should be some interest in the October housing starts and building permits data, especially following Fed Chair Powell’s recent comments acknowledging a slowdown in the housing market and yesterday’s homebuilder data. Away from that, the BoE’s Carney is due to appear before the Parliament’s Treasury Committee to discuss the Inflation Report, while the ECB’s Nouy and Bundesbank’s Weidmann are both scheduled to speak at separate events.

US Event Calendar

8:30am: Housing Starts, est. 1.23m, prior 1.2m; MoM, est. 1.79%, prior -5.3%
8:30am: Building Permits, est. 1.26m, prior 1.24m; MoM, est. -0.79%, prior -0.6%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

With the sell-off of the last 24 hours we have now traded through the last of our YE 2018 top level credit spread forecasts as US HY widened 6bps to +424bps (YE 2018 forecast was 420). We still think US HY is the most expensive part of the EUR & US credit universe but as discussed above, last night we’ve become more optimistic on all credit in the near-term after what has been the worst week of the year. Credit massively under-performed equities last week but equities caught up on the downside yesterday. The sell-off was underpinned by the FANG names selling off, an accounting scandal emerging at Nissan, oil swinging around and the US housing market spooked by weak data.

Just on the market moves first, the NASDAQ and NYFANG indexes slumped -3.03% and -4.28% yesterday, registering their fourth and third worst days of the year, respectively. Facebook and Apple fell -5.72% and -3.96% respectively, as the sector remains pressured amid a slew of negative PR and the spectre of stricter government regulation. Over the weekend, Apple CEO Tim Cook said in an interview that “the free market is not working” and that new regulation is “inevitable”. This negatively impacted highly-valued social media companies. Twitter and Snapchat traded down -5.02% and -6.78% respectively. The tech sector was further pressured after the WSJ reported that Apple had cut production orders in recent weeks for the new model iPhones, with chipmakers broadly trading lower and Philadelphia semiconductor index shedding -3.86%. The S&P 500 and DOW also slumped -1.66% and -1.56% respectively while in Europe the STOXX 600 turned an early gain of +0.71% into a loss of -0.73%. In credit, cash markets were 2bps and 11bps wider for Euro IG and HY and 2bps and 6bps in the US. CDX IG and HY were, however, 3bps and 11bps wider, respectively. Elsewhere, WTI oil first tested breaking through $55/bbl yesterday, after Russia stopped short of committing to supply cuts, before recovering to close +0.52% at $56.76.

Bond markets were relatively quiet, with Treasuries and Bunds ending -0.4bps and +0.6bps, respectively, albeit masking bigger intraday moves. BTP yields rose +10.6bps to 3.597%, within 10 basis points of their recent closing peak, as rhetoric between Italian officials and their European peers continued to intensify. Finance Ministers from Austria and the Netherlands separately spoke publicly about their concerns, and expressed their hope that the European Commission will loyally enforce the fiscal rules. Italian Finance Minister Tria tried to calm conditions by framing the disagreement as relatively minor, though he also accused the Commission of being biased against expansionary policies, which he argued are needed to avert a macro slowdown.

Back to credit, as we highlighted yesterday, the recent weakness in the asset class has become a talking point for broader markets and while our view is now that value is starting to emerge, there are an increasing number of idiosyncratic stories plaguing the market. There were a couple more examples yesterday with the aforementioned story about Nissan removing its chairman after being arrested for violations of financial law. This caused Renault’s CDS to widen +25.0bps (equity down -8.43%), while Vallourec bonds dropped 15pts after falling 11pts on Friday as concerns mount about the company’s rising leverage in the wake of recent results. Like we’ve see in equity markets, it does feel like credits are now getting punished with sharp moves in the wake of negative headlines Certainly something to watch, but as we said above, credit is now much more attractively priced than it has been for some time.

From steel tubing to Downing Street, where we’ve actually had a rare temporary lull for Brexit headlines over the last 24 hours, although behind the scenes it does look we’re getting closer to the threshold for a confidence vote in PM May with the Times yesterday reporting that “senior Brexiteers” had told reporters that they had “firm pledges” from over 50 MPs to submit letters. As a reminder, 48 are needed to trigger the process. Looking further out, yesterday DB’s Oliver Harvey published a report arguing that there is still a path towards an orderly Brexit based on the existing Withdrawal Agreement should May survive a confidence vote. This path is provided by the political declaration on the future economic relationship. The latter has yet to be negotiated, and as the EU27 and UK recognise in the joint statement, the existing temporary customs arrangement (TCA) already provides a basis for a future economic relationship. Oli argues that the UK should push for the political declaration on the future relationship to explicitly commit the UK to a form of Brexit that might be described as “Norway plus.” The temporary customs arrangement would become permanent, but under the governance framework of UK membership of the EEA and EFT. The UK should tie the political declaration on the future relationship to the good faith clause in the existing Withdrawal Agreement, meaning that if negotiations were not pursued on these lines after the transition period had begun, the UK could withhold payments from the EU27. This would help to allay concerns from across the political divide that the UK would be “trapped” in a sub optimal customs union with the EU27.

Meanwhile, to complicate matters, Bloomberg has reported that the EU is mulling over issuing a series of separate statements on Brexit on Sunday, in addition to the Withdrawal Agreement and the Political Declaration. This comes after pressure from some EU countries not to appease any additional UK demands. Elsewhere, the SUN has reported that the PM May has drawn up a secret plan to scrap the Irish backstop arrangement in an attempt to win over angry Tory Brexiteers after a meeting with them yesterday. However, if a mutually agreeable solution couldn’t be found over the last couple of years, it seems tough to imagine one was finally found yesterday afternoon. We’ll see.

Further adding to the complexity of where Brexit heads, last night the DUP abstained on the UK finance bill, which implements the budget. This stops short of their prior threat to actively vote against the legislation, but is still a surprise and signals that further political turbulence between PM May and the DUP is likely. The bill only just scraped through. Sterling finished +0.14% yesterday and this morning is trading flattish (+0.02%) in early trade.

Sentiment more broadly in Asia is following Wall Street’s lead with almost all markets trading in a sea of red. The Nikkei (-1.25%, with Nissan Motors down as much as -5.41% and Mitsubishi Motors -6.71%), Hang Seng (-1.84%), Shanghai Comp (-1.63%) and Kospi (-0.96%) are all down along with most other markets. Elsewhere, futures on S&P 500 (-0.29%) are extending losses as we type.

Back to yesterday, where as we mentioned at the top, weak US homebuilder sentiment survey data played its part in the moves for markets. The November NAHB housing market index tumbled to 60 from 68 in October after expectations had been for just a 1pt drop. That’s the lowest reading since August 2016 and biggest one-month drop since February 2014. The details weren’t much better and falls into line with the expectation of a softer outlook for housing. As you’ll see in the day ahead we’ve got more housing data in the US today so worth keeping an eye on even if the October data for starts could be distorted by Hurricane Michael.

As far as the day ahead is concerned, we’re fairly light on data today with Q3 employment stats in France, October PPI in Germany and November CBI total orders data in the UK the only releases of note. In the US, there should be some interest in the October housing starts and building permits data, especially following Fed Chair Powell’s recent comments acknowledging a slowdown in the housing market and yesterday’s homebuilder data. Away from that, the BoE’s Carney is due to appear before the Parliament’s Treasury Committee to discuss the Inflation Report, while the ECB’s Nouy and Bundesbank’s Weidmann are both scheduled to speak at separate events.

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT:

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

North Korea/South Korea/USA/China

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

END

3 C CHINA

(courtesy zerohedge)

“A Daisy Chain Of Defaults”: How Debt Cross-Guarantees Could Spark China’s Next Crisis

On November 8, China shocked markets with its latest targeted stimulus in the form of an “unprecedented” lending directive ordering large banks to issue loans to private companies to at least one-third of new corporate lending. The announcement sparked a new round of investor concerns about what is being unsaid about China’s opaque, private enterprises, raising prospects of a fresh spike in bad assets.

A few days later, Beijing unveiled another unpleasant surprise, when the PBOC announced that Total Social Financing – China’s broadest credit aggregate – has collapsed from 2.2 trillion yuan in September to a tiny 729 billion in October, missing expectations of a the smallest monthly increase since October 2014.

Some speculated that the reason for the precipitous drop in new credit issuance has been growing concern among Chinese lenders over what is set to be a year of record corporate defaults within China’s private firms. As we reported at the end of September, a record number of non-state firms had defaulted on 67.4 billion yuan ($9.7 billion) of local bonds this year, 4.2 times that of 2017, while the overall Chinese market was headed for a year of record defaults in 2018. Since then, the amount of debt default has risen to 83 billion yuan, a new all time high (more below).

Now, in a new development that links these seemingly unrelated developments, Bloomberg reports that debt cross-guarantees by Chinese firms have left the world’s third-largest bond market prone to contagion risks, which has made it “all the tougher for officials to follow through on initiatives to sustain credit flows”, i.e., the threat of growing threat of unexpected cross- defaults is what is keeping China’s credit pipeline clogged up and has resulted in the collapse in new credit creation.

The risk of cross-defaults is what also appears to be behind the recent official directive for banks to boost lending to private corporations.

As Bloomberg explains, private companies have long had to be innovative in getting financing in Communist-run China, where state-owned enterprises have had preferential access to the banking system. Extending guarantees to each other helped businesses boost some lenders’ confidence enough to extend funding to them.

While this was not a concern when times were good, now that China is going through a record run of debt defaults, these often opaque and hard-to-follow links pose the risk of “a daisy chain of distress” with price moves are reflecting that.

Take, for example, tire-maker China Wanda Group which has seen the yield on its bonds due in 2021 soar almost threefold, from 8% to over 20% since end-September, thanks to having provided guarantees to iron-wire maker Shandong SNTON Group Co., one of whose units failed to repay a bank loan two months ago.

“Large cross-guarantees could set off a chain effect that could quickly spread from one firm to another,” said Clifford Kurz, a credit analyst from S&P Global Ratings in Hong Kong, who probably rues the day he was tasked with figuring out which company is linked to which other company in cross-default obligations.

And there’s a lot of it: like pledged shares, where private companies and executives pledged corporate shareholdings as collateral for bank loans and which emerged as a major risk factor for China’s financial system in late October when a flood of margin calls sparked a “liquidity crisis” and panic selling in Chinese stocks and prompted the regulators and local authorities to demand that banks ease restrictions on pledged shares, cross guarantees are a Chinese phenomenon less familiar in global markets. Last year, cross-guarantees in China amounted to nearly 4 trillion yuan ($575 billion), the China Securities Journal reported in October 2017.

Which brings us back to China Wanda and Shandong SNTON, which are both based in the eastern province of Shandong, which has an economy of about $1 trillion and benefited from a dynamic private sector; however that growth now appears to have ground to a halt, and according to Kurz, slides in a number of corporate bonds across the province “may suggest that investors are seeking to avoid the risks posed by such cross-guarantees — regardless of the underlying performance of such companies.”

And with a record pace of 83.4 billion yuan of defaults this year, both share pledging and cross guarantees have found themselves to topic of intense scrutiny

“Cross-guarantees were not built up overnight,” said Li Guomao, head of financing at Shandong SNTON, which has seen its own bonds tumble 30% since October thanks to a lawsuit over a guarantee to a subsidiary that failed to repay a loan. “It is unlikely to solve this problem soon.”

There is another way that the province of Shandong has emerged as the potential epicenter for the next debt crisis: here, at least 20 private firms provide guarantees that account for at least 10% of their total net assets – a ratio surpassing all other regions, according to Lv Pin, an analyst from CITIC Securities Co.

“Private firms in Shandong have been exposed to more risks as they are caught up in the cross-guarantee trap, with bonds being dumped on the secondary market,” said Chen Su, bond portfolio manager at Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank Co.

And, as noted above, local companies started suffering more financing difficulties as banks cut lending to this region earlier this year, Su said.

What makes this particular problem especially vexing is that, like a loose thread, once one company with cross-guarantees finds itself unable to fund its debt obligations, a cross-guarantee cascade is sprung, and dozens of other firms may end up unable to either satisfy their “guaranteed” commitments to the original debtor, until – ultimately – they are unable repay their own creditors.

Bloomberg notes that cross-guarantee troubles have been cropping up for a while:

When a disclosure last year showed that Shandong Yuhuang Chemical Co. had guaranteed 1.35 billion yuan of obligations tied to Hongye Chemical Group Holdings Co., yields on Yuhuang’s 2020 dollar note shot up more than 2.30 percentage points in a week.

For now, there hasn’t been a default serious enough to drag down numerous firms at the same time, although that may soon change.

However, to make sure it doesn’t, China is engaging in what it does best to avoid a credit crisis: government funded bailouts. Sure enough, the province of Shandong is making efforts to avert any credit collapse. Its state assets regulator said a government-backed 10 billion yuan fund will be set up to address liquidity risks at listed companies, the China Securities Journal reported on Friday. More broadly, as we reported two weeks ago, China’s central bank has launched initiatives to aid credit to small and medium enterprises, and support bond issuance.

And while the S&P analyst Kurz said that most companies surveyed by S&P are scaling back those cross-guarantees, for Beijing to make the unprecedented demand that banks allocate a third of new credit issuance to private companies, the problem must be far more dire than has been made public so far. And just as was the case with share loans, it is only a matter of time before cross-guarantees emerges as the focal point of China’s next financial crisis.

.end

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

European trading; European afternoon

trouble ahead especially Italian 10 yr bond/credit default risks

(courtesy zerohedge)

“The Market Is Killing Us” – European Stocks Crash To

2-Year Lows

While US is grabbing the headlines as the hedge fund hotels and momentum darlings of the last 10 years have suddenly collapsed, European markets have been a bloodbath longer and that pain is accelerating rapidly...

As Bloomberg reports, The sell-off in European stocks has been so violent that Guillermo Hernandez Sampere, head of trading at the German asset manager MPPM EK, now spends half his working day on the phone with fearful clients.

“So much pain, the market is killing us,” he said by phone from Eppstein, Germany.

“European equities have lost investor confidence due to Italy, Brexit. Liquidity is the place to be right now.”

Italy and Germany are the worst performers year-to-date…

Hernandez Sampere said it’s best to hide from the European equity correction by holding cash, and the fund has increased its cash positioning to the “high single-digits” in November even though it’s normally fully invested.

He is not alone – a slew of institutional investors are issuing ominous warnings:

Goldman Sachs strategists recommend that mixed-asset investors lift their cash allocations and dial back on risk.

Ken Adams, head of tactical asset allocation at Aberdeen Standard Investments says: “You need a catalyst to trigger buying in European stocks and it’s hard to come up with a story investors can believe in… The region has disappointed in terms of growth expectations and the general political backdrop is challenging.”

And this is happening as Italian bank credit risk explodes...

And Italian redenomination risk (Italeave) soars…

We give the last words to Hernandez Sampere:

“It’s very sad because some shares really look so sexy from a fundamental view,”

“But only a few people give us the money to invest here, the majority of institutional clients redeem.”

But what about the global synchronized recovery?

end

Everywhere we look we see the global economy grinding to a halt. Today UK housing posts its first annual decline in 7 years.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Dismal UK Housing Market Posts First Annual Decline In 7 Years

For years, the UK housing market, and especially the London real estate bubble – just like junk bond spreads – appeared invincible. And, just like the US junk bond bubble, it burst in November, when UK housing prices fell from a year ago for the first time since 2011, with the decline led by London and more expensive properties across the country. According to Rightmove, the average asking prices slipped 0.2% to 302,023 pounds, or $387,000, the first annual drop in 7 years.

The drop was even more pronounced on a monthly basis: in the largest November drop in prices since 2012, Rightmove said the average price of property coming to the market was down by 1.7%, or £5,222, on the month alone. The biggest falls were in London, where the typical asking price fell by £10,793 (a fall of 1.7%) and in the south-east of England, where prices were down £8,647 (2.1%).

In Greater London, asking prices fell 2.4% annually to 614,271 pounds, while homes located within Transport for London’s Zone 1, the center of the city, fell the most with a 6.9% retreat on the year to an average of 1.3 million pounds. The declines aren’t as dramatic further from the center, where average prices are lower. Values in the outer-most Zone 6 actually rose 3.1% from a year ago.

The biggest price drop was in London, where the typical asking price fell by £10,793 (1.7%). Photograph: Guardian“Stretched buyer affordability and the cooling markets in the south and in upper price brackets have combined with the ongoing political uncertainty to change pricing optimism into pricing realism,” said Miles Shipside, a director and housing market analyst at Rightmove.

The property market in Britain is weakening after a three-decade boom in which price growth vastly outstripped wage gains, Bloomberg reports. The decline is the result of a reverse “ripple effect”, where rising prices in London spread around the rest of the country during the boom years, has now reversed, said Rightmove, with falling prices in the capital now spreading across the south.

“Higher-end, former hotspot towns are now among the biggest annual fallers with Rickmansworth (-7.1%), Esher (-6.4%) and Gerrards Cross (-6.0%) now cold spots following price rises of nearly 40% over the seven preceding years,” said Miles Shipside of Rightmove.

According to the Guardian, anecdotal reports suggest the market is in even worse shape than the numbers indicated: sellers are listing their property but receiving hardly any viewings and it is taking much longer to find a buyer are supported by the Rightmove data. The real estate website found that the average property takes 61 days to sell, up from 56 days earlier this year, while inventories are swelling with the number of properties on the books of the average estate agent rising to 52, compared to 42-47 earlier this year.

The figures echo data from surveyors earlier this month, which said the property market is at its weakest since 2016. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors found that prices were flat or falling across half of the country, with sales “in limbo” until a Brexit deal emerges.

The uncertainty around the outlook for the U.K.’s divorce from the European Union is also making buyers more cautious and prompting sellers to be less ambitious with asking prices.

Meanwhile, the debate among some estate agents is how to cut asking prices without precipitating a market crash. Richard Freshwater, of Cheffins in Cambridge, tells buyers that it is better to make a single, large cut in price rather than lots of small cuts.

“The key is to drop the price by enough to bring in a new set of buyers within a new bracket. The mistake often made by sellers is to reduce the price on consecutive occasions which can have a damaging effect and put buyers off.”

But whether prices drop gradually or all at once, the data is clear: prices are coming down.

Separate research in October from the website Zoopla found that 38% of properties currently on the market have been marked down in price, with Brighton highest at nearly 47%. It said sellers in the seaside city are having to knock an average of £28,000 off the asking price to achieve a sale.

And with sellers scrambling, buyers have all the leverage. Sarah Coles, personal finance expert at Hargreaves Lansdown, said market power lies in the hands of buyers who are able to strike quick deals. “The property market hates uncertainty, so regardless of what happens next in Brexit terms, buyers may lose some of their enthusiasm, sellers may be reluctant to put their homes on the market, and we could see continued sluggishness in the market.”

“It’s a buyers’ market, so you should be able to get the kind of discount that shields you from the risk of further drops in the market.”

While that is a valid point, good luck finding a seller who is willing to chop off 20% of their asking price to provoke enough interest and create a “discount buffer” that sparks buyer attention.

Meanwhile, as the Guardian cautions, with Brexit negotiations at maximum uncertainty, and concerns of a hard Brexit rising, “the property market is likely to remain moribund this side of Christmas.” Of course, if the Brexit negotiations stretch into the new years, it is anyone’s guess how much further the US housing market will drop.

end

Theresa May gained a few conservatives on her side with the chance of having a ‘technological” solution to the hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. A hard border will keep the UK in a customs union for ever and that is something that Brexiteers do not want

(courtesy zerohedge)

Theresa May Gambling On “Unicorn Fantasy” Compromise To Save Brexit Deal

As her draft Brexit deal flounders and senior members of her government threaten resignation if a compromise cannot be reached, UK Prime Minister Theresa May is reportedly going all in on what one lawmaker described as the“unicorn fantasy island” solution: Replacing the Irish backstop (perhaps the most contentious aspect of her 585-page draft agreement) with a commitment to find a “technological solution” that would avoid the return of a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, according to the Sun and the Financial Times.

According to one Sky News reporter, the introduction of a commitment to find “technological solutions” might be enough to win over some Brexiteer Tories by helping to assuage their concerns over the possibility that the UK could find itself trapped in the customs union indefinitely following Brexit. However, serious doubts remain about whether the technology even exists to carry this out. May reportedly pledged to explore adding the technology clause during talks Monday night with Ian Duncan Smith, Lord Trimble, Lord Lilley and Owen Paterson. In theory, a technological solution would allow the EU and UK to maintain a “soft border” in Northern Ireland even if the two sides fail to hammer out a trade agreement.

Tom Rayner

✔@RaynerSkyNews

· 1h

Replying to @RaynerSkyNews

If ‘technological solutions’ could be found (and many dispute whether they even currently exist) this would mean you effectively have 3 options before a NI-only backstop kicked in: transition extension > UK-wide temproary customs arrangement > technological solutions

Tom Rayner

✔@RaynerSkyNews

This might provide an explanation as to how Theresa May was able to seemingly talk around IDS, Owen Paterson and Lord Trimble in Downing Street yesterday afternoon. BUT, v unclear whether technological solutions would realistically be seen as acceptable by the EU

Members of the Brexiteer “Famous Five” told the FT that they’re feeling “positive” about May’s pledge to explore a technological solution.

Officials close to Brexiters in Cabinet (the famous five) say they are “feeling very positive” after PM promised to explore “technological” solutions to maintain a soft border in Ireland in place of a backstop.

— Laura Hughes (@Laura_K_Hughes) November 20, 2018

May’s concession comes as more Tory MPs have come out against the draft plan in its current form, saying it gives “too much away,” according to the Sun.

But while the PM won plaudits from business chiefs, her Brexit deal suffered a fresh blow as a second former Tory leader withdrew his support for it.

Lord Howard said it betrayed too many promises to regain control and so “I can’t vote for it”.

Tory backbench grandee Sir Bernard Jenkin also accused the PM of having “impaled herself” on her soft Brexit plan.

Meanwhile, senior EU figures rowed in to help Mrs May win round her angry Tory MPs.

Michel Barnier has urged rebel MPs to accept Theresa May’s deal by telling them it ensures Britain will “take back control” after Brexit.

The prime minister had previously discarded the “maximum facilitation” model (where technology is used to scan, check and verify cross-border shipments) during the talks leading up to the Chequers plan. And while May is probably hoping that her cabinet could win over the necessary votes to win approval for her deal, according to the FT, the idea is expected to meet with much more hostility in Europe.

Speaking after a two-hour cabinet discussion on the final stages of Brexit talks, Mrs May’s spokesman noted that the draft EU withdrawal treaty mentioned “alternative arrangements” could be deployed to avoid a return to hard border in Ireland.

“One possible alternative arrangement could involve technological solutions,” Mrs May’s spokesman said, confirming that the idea had been discussed in cabinet.

The idea will be seen in Brussels as an unworkable attempt by the prime minister to buy the support of Tory Eurosceptics and the Democratic Unionist party, which oppose the current proposals for a backstop.

May is supposed to travel to Brussels on Wednesday to begin talks to finalize the draft plan and also hammer out details of the accompanying political agreement (which is also facing some complications related to France and Spain, which are pushing for additional demands to be included in the report).

If she can’t secure a workable agreement, it’s likely that a summit set for Sunday will be cancelled, and the European Union will begin contingency planning for a hard Brexit.

But the fact that May is pinning her hopes for passing the deal on an idea that many derided as a fantasy is fitting in a way. The notion that the UK and EU could ever work out a straightforward, mutually agreeable separation agreement was ridiculous from the very beginning.

end

We know have knowledge that there is a secret plan (operation Temperer) ready in the UK for Martial law if there is a “no deal” Brexit

(courtesy zero hedge)

Operation Temperer Exposed: UK Army’s Secret Plan For Martial Law If ‘No Deal’ Brexit

The first time we heard about the British government’s “Operation Temperer” was shortly after the dreadful terrorist explosion in Manchester in June 2017, when Prime Minister Theresa May declared “enough is enough”, and demanded a review of the UK’s counter-terrorism strategy.

As Brandon Smith noted at the time, the deployment of over 5000 British troops at strategic locations by Theresa May is all part of a plan established in 2015 called “Operation Temperer”. The plan calls for the deployment of troops within the UK border in response to “major terrorist threats”. As The Mail on Sunday uncovered at the time:

Whitehall officials had kept it under wraps because it contained such sensitive information.

Theresa May, who made the decision, makes her the first Prime Minister to use a new plan for a show of force in the face of major terrorist threats.

Mrs May said it would be the decision of police chiefs to decide where to deploy the military, though they are most likely to be used to guard top tourist attractions, airports and railway stations and sporting venues.

David Cameron had opposed controversial power because he didn’t want the UK to appear like it had lost control and was imposing martial law.

Essentially, it is a martial law program that acts incrementally, rather than overtly. Once implemented, Temperer would be difficult to reverse. As UK military chiefs warned when the operation was publicly exposed, troops would likely not be pulled back after commitment unless the terror threat was “reduced”, leaving the definition of the “threat level” open for rather broad interpretation.

Which makes the latest news even more concerning as The Daily Mail reports, plans have been drawn up by the military for Operation Temperer, which, as we noted above is designed to help police on the streets in the threat of terrorism, to be enacted in the event of a no-deal Brexit scenario.

Contingency plans involve how the military could help keep public order amid such events as the delivery and stockpiling of medicines to hospitals across the country, according to The Times.

Chief of Defense Staff General Sir Nick Carter said the army would “stand ready to help” in the event of a ‘No Deal’, adding that the army has around 1,200 troops on 24-hour standby which can deal with a range of operations and contingencies. And a further 10,000 military personnel are available to assist with an emergency at short notice.

“We make sensible contingency plans for all sort of eventualities whether it’s a terrorist attack, a tanker driver dispute or industrial action. ”

“At this stage I think people are confident there will be a deal, If there’s not one, we stand ready to help in any way we can.”

When asked about the stockpiling of medicines, Sir Nick Carter said:

“We’re involved in thinking hard about what it might involve. We’ve not been asked to do anything specifically at this stage.”

As Brandon Smith so ominously concluded: I believe the UK will be under martial law in a year’s time. Unless the people of the UK do something NOW to assert their right to determine their own security, they will fall to a complete totalitarian framework. And, in the long run, they will only be helping the very globalists the Brexit movement in particular sought to fight against. They will do this by trampling the image of nationalism and sovereignty with the jackbooted philosophy of externalized security and government dependency, making globalism, the offered antithesis, look pleasant and tolerable in retrospect.

end

France

They are revolting in France on their stupid carbon tax and a tax on diesel fuel.. Massive road blocks have been created due to a Macron’s diesel fuel tax!!!

(courtesy Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

France Suffers Anti-Carbon Revolt: Massive Road Blocks Against Macron’s Diesel Tax

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

In stunning irony, the French protest against Macron’s diesel tax, while Macron insists the UK abide by climate accord.

Please consider France’s Climate Change Commitments Trigger Rising Diesel Prices and Street Protests.

On Saturday, more than 282,700 people, many clad in yellow vests, took to — and, in many places, also literally took — the streets, according to the French Interior Ministry. The ministry said a network of drivers blocked roads at some 2,000 locations across the country, generating backups for miles and causing one death.

The protesters’ chief complaint: the rising cost of diesel fuel. The recent price hike is a direct result of President Emmanuel Macron’s commitment to curbing climate change, which included higher carbon taxes for 2018, the first full year of his term. But beyond the diesel issue, many turned out Saturday to voice any number of other frustrations with the “president for the rich,” who is seen as increasingly removed from ordinary people’s concerns.

The stirrings of the “yellow vest” campaign behind Saturday’s protests began this summer, with online petitions urging Macron to reconsider. But the loudest voice was that of Jacline Mouraud, a white-haired hypnotist and grandmother of three from Brittany who has become the star of the movement.

On Saturday, Mouraud was asked to explain the death of the protester. “I deplore the death of this woman,” she said, speaking to Europe 1 radio. “But who is responsible for this situation? The French government is responsible for the death of this woman.”

According to a poll published Friday by the Odoxa agency for France’s Le Figaro newspaper — albeit with only 1,000 respondents — as many as 3 in 4 French people agree.

Location of Roadblocks

The lead image is from Anti-Carbon-Tax Revolt Threatens to Paralyze France

The French government approved a measure in late 2017 increasing a direct tax on diesel as well as a tax on carbon, allegedly to fight against climate change. The so-called Contribution Climat Énergie (CCE), a French version of the carbon tax, has steadily increased fuel prices in recent years. Drivers across the country have balked at the rising price of diesel as it disproportionately affects workers who depend on their vehicles to get to and from their jobs. Two-thirds of French people expect a “social explosion” in coming months.

The gilets jaunes are a grass-roots revolt against high fuel prices, and they threaten to paralyze France on Saturday.

The gilets jaunes have organised at least 630 protests nationwide via the blocage17novembre.com website, designed by an 18-year-old student. Some call for go-slows on highways. Others want to block roads, which is punishable by two years in prison and a €4,500 fine. Interior minister Christophe Castaner says no “total blockage” will be tolerated.

But several police unions have expressed sympathy, and promised not to punish petty or “middle-size” offences “out of solidarity with the citizens”.

The rise of the gilets jaunes coincides with Macron’s record low 26 per cent approval rating. A poll published by Ifop on November 14th indicates two-thirds of French people expect a “social explosion” in coming months.

Baptiste Meslin @BaptisteMeslin

· 21h

Replying to @BaptisteMeslin

Des adolescents passants dans la rue semblent avoir été pris dans une charge de CRS. Précision : aucune violence et aucun projectiles n’ont été lancés par les manifestants.

Baptiste Meslin @BaptisteMeslin

Les #GiletsJaunes se sont repliés sur le dernier point de blocage à côté du Leroy Merlin. Les CRS avancent vite. pic.twitter.com/8oUD6HGsqZ

2

10:47 AM – Nov 19, 2018 · Tourville-la-Rivière, France

Twitter Ads info and privacy

See Baptiste Meslin ‘s other Tweets

Make France Great Again

Those Tweets from Trump came in the midst of his visit to France last week.

Trump clashed with French President Emmanuel Macron as he arrived in Paris for a celebration marking the 100th anniversary of the armistice that ended the First World War.

Baptiste Meslin @BaptisteMeslin

· 21h

Replying to @BaptisteMeslin

Des adolescents passants dans la rue semblent avoir été pris dans une charge de CRS. Précision : aucune violence et aucun projectiles n’ont été lancés par les manifestants.

Baptiste Meslin @BaptisteMeslin

Les #GiletsJaunes se sont repliés sur le dernier point de blocage à côté du Leroy Merlin. Les CRS avancent vite. pic.twitter.com/8oUD6HGsqZ

2

10:47 AM – Nov 19, 2018 · Tourville-la-Rivière, France

Twitter Ads info and privacy

See Baptiste Meslin ‘s other Tweets

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Macron Insists UK Abide by Climate Change Accord

Meanwhile, please note that Macron has placed a new demand on the UK in Brexit: Macron Wants Climate Change to be Part of “Final” Brexit Deal.

end

Deutsche bank shares hit bottom again to 8.30 Euros. Reason: money laundering fears brought on by the scandal of Danske

(courtesy zerohedge)

Deutsche Bank Shares Hit Record Low On Massive Money Laundering Fears

The situation for Deutsche Bank investors is going from bad to worse, as shares of the largest bank in Europe have now erased half their value since the beginning of the year over concerns of the bank’s possible role in enabling Danske Bank to possible launder more than $200 billion in suspicious money through the Danish lender’s tiny Estonian branch.

DB shares dropped as much as 6% in Frankfurt, the largest one-day drop since May 31. A Danske whistleblower said during testimony before the Danish Parliament that a large European lender (which sources identified as Deutsche Bank) had cleared some $150 billion of the suspicious money before severing its relationship with the Estonian branch in 2015 (two years after JPM is believed to have severed its own clearing relationship during a “de-risking” of its dollar-clearing business).

DB shares were headed to an all-time lowest close in recent trade, extending their YTD drop to 48% from their January highs. DB shares were down 3.1% in recent trade, compared with a 1.7% drop in the Stoxx 600 Banks Index.

To be clear, Deutsche Bank isn’t a target of the DOJ investigation, or any investigation (at least not that we know of). But given the recent bloodletting across markets, even the slightest negative news could be enough to harm a company’s shares.

“In the current environment, the slightest negative news is enough to make people leave risk assets, especially regarding sensible topics like money laundering,” aid Andreas Meyer, portfolio manager at Aramea Asset Management.

As investigators question the correspondent banks that helped Danske move its clients money into the Western financial system, fears are growing that, instead of being treated as unwitting dupes, banks like JPM and DB could be prosecuted as accomplices in what has become the largest money laundering scandal in European history.

end

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Saudi Arabia and Yemen agree for a ceasefire and to begin peace talks.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Saudis Agree To Yemen Peace Talks – Ceasefire In Effect For First Time Since War’s Start

The prospect for peace – or at least a lasting ceasefire – is advancing rapidly following a surprise weekend proposal by Yemen’s Houthis to halt all attacks on Saudi coalition forces. On Sunday the head of Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi Supreme Revolutionary Committee Mohammed Ali al-Houthi, said “We are willing to freeze and stop military operations” — something which now appears to have taken effect, according to a breaking Reuters report.

In the biggest turning point in the war which has raged since 2015, Reuters confirms:

Houthi rebels in Yemen said on Monday they were halting drone and missile attacks on Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and their Yemeni allies, responding to a demand from the United Nations.

“We announce our initiative…to halt missile and drone strikes on the countries of aggression,” an official Houthi statement reads. Crucially, it appears this halt in fighting was precipitated by a Saudi agreement to the Houthi extension of an olive branch as according to the AFP Yemen’s internationally recognized Saudi-backed government says it has informed UN envoy Martin Griffiths it is ready to take part in proposed peace talks with Houthi rebels to be held in Sweden.

Pro-Saudi forces in Yemen, via Getty images“The [Saudi-backed Yemen] government has informed the UN envoy to Yemen … that it will send a government delegation to the talks with the aim of reaching a political solution,” Yemen’s pro-Saudi foreign ministry said, quoted by the official Saba news agency.

The development is of monumental importance and has broader geopolitical implications as crown prince MbS remains under international scrutiny following the early October killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Following the murder at the hands of Saudi operatives the plight of millions of suffering Yemeni civilians under Saudi coalition bombs suddenly found its way into the media spotlight after the mainstream had long ignored the conflict, partly due to the fact that the United States and Western allies have played a lead role in the devastating bombing campaign.

On Monday Saudi King Salman told his country’s top advisory body, the Shura Council: “our support for Yemen was not an option but a duty… to help the Yemeni people confront the Iran-backed militias” — choosing to frame the ceasefire as if Riyadh has been on the side of “the people” the whole time. The King agreed there should be a “political solution” and a “comprehensive national dialogue” in Yemen, according to Reuters.

UN envoy Griffiths is expected to be in the Yemeni capital of Sanaa this week seeking to finalize preparations for peace talks in Sweden, though a date for the negotiations has yet to be set.

The broader picture is that the Saudis appear to be bowing to U.S. pressures over reducing the Saudi coalition’s actions and atrocities in Yemen as media and western public outrage builds in the wake of the Khashoggi killing.

end

Iraq/Iran

Seems that the Iraqi Dinar will replace the dollar and the Euro in trade between Iran and Iraq

(courtesy zerohedge)

Iraqi Dinar May Replace Dollar And Euro In Iran’s 2nd Largest Export Market

Amidst continuing talks between Iran and Iraq over how to settle payments for Iraq’s natural gas imports from Iran in the face of Washington sanctions, Iranian officials are mulling over Iraq’s offer to pay in Iraqi Dinars instead of the dollar or Euro, according to Iranian state media. This follows the September announcement by Iran that it planned to completely ditch the dollar as a currency used by the two countries in the trade transactions.

Iraq was among countries granted a temporary exemption as energy sanctions on its eastern neighbor and regional Shia ally took effect November 5, and since then Baghdad has pushed to process payments for gas and electricity in its own currency of dinars. Iraq is Iran’s second largest export market with a substantial portion of that trade in energy, which cannot cannot easily be structured outside the new sanctions regime.

Iraq’s President Barham Salih (L) is accompanied by his Iranian counterpart, Hassan Rouhani, to a meeting of Iran-Iraq delegations for talks in Tehran on November 17. Via President.ir

Baghdad has found itself in the delicate position as a partner of both Washington and Tehran — largely reliant on the former for defense and on the latter for gas and power generation, keeping its economy afloat. Last summer a severe temporary electricity reduction fueled unrest across the south of Iraq. Chronic shortages and a failing Iraqi infrastructure means Tehran has been a key lifeline fueling Iraq’s increasingly desperate needs.

Iranian officials have also recently declared “Iraq is one of our successes” and a “strategic ally” as echoed in a weekend televised broadcastfeaturing the head of Iran’s Islamic Shura Council, Hossein Amirabedhaleyan. However, as the head of the Iran-Iraq Chamber of Commerce Yahya Ale-Eshagh stated before the latest round of sanctions took effect: “Resolving the banking system problem must be a priority for both Iran and Iraq, as the two countries have at least $8 billion in transactions in the worst times,” according to a September statement.

Meanwhile on Monday Iran’s leadership continued making dubious promises that energy exports will defy all expectations and thrive, with President Hassan Rouhani saying US sanctions are “part of a psychological war doomed to failure”.

“We will not yield to this pressure, which is part of the psychological war launched against Iran,” Rouhani said in a speech broadcast live on state television.

“They have failed to stop our oil exports. We will keep exporting it… Your regional policies have failed and you blame Iran for that failure from Afghanistan to Yemen and Syria,” he added as the crowd he addressed in the city of Khoy chanted “Death to America!”.

Noting that Washington had succumbed to granting temporary waivers to eight major buyers of Iranian oil due to economic realities, he explained: “America is isolated now. Iran is supported by many countries. Except for the Zionist regime (Israel) and some countries in the region, no other country backs America’s pressure on Iran,” according to Reuters.

Iranian officials have vowed to stick by the 2015 Iran nuclear deal in spite of Washington’s aggressive attempts to dismantle it. Foreign Ministry spokesman Bahram Qasemi expressed to reporters he is “hopeful that the Europeans can save the deal” in reference to the EU’s attempts to establish a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) for non-dollar trade with Iran. European and other foreign business, however, have still been leaving Iran in droves out of fear of US penalties.

“We expect EU to implement the SPV as soon as possible,” Qasemi said. “Iran adheres to its commitments as long as other signatories honor theirs.”

Reuters reported last week, based on statements from six unnamed diplomats, that the EU had sought to establish the SPV by this month but failed as no country is currently willing to host it. This gives new impetus to current negotiations between Iran and Iraq held this past weekend as the Iraqi president visited Tehran on Saturday with a delegation for a series of talks.

Iran’s Ambassador Iraj Masjedi announced over the weekend amidst the high level talks involving Iraq’s President Barham Salih: “Considering the problems that have emerged in dollar-based banking transactions, a joint proposal between Iran and Iraq is using Iraq’s dinar in trade,” according to Iranian state media. He added that an alternative plan might included using barter mechanisms to carry out imports and exports with Iraq.

Following these meetings Iranian President Hassan Rouhani indicated the two neighbors look to increase their annual trade from the current $12 billion to $20 billion.

end

Trump reaffirms support for MbS as we warns that the “world is a dangerous place”. Oil falls some more as the world realizes that Trump will not initiate sanctions against the oil Kingdom

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Affirms Support For MbS, Warns “World Is A Dangerous Place”

After promising to publish a “very full report” about the CIA’s findings related to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman’s complicity in the death of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, President Trump on Tuesday instead released a statement where he once again defended the US’s relationship with the kingdom, and questioned whether MbS even knew about the killing.

While Trump described the murder as a “terrible” and “unacceptable” crime, he claimed that as US intelligence agencies continue to investigate, they could still find that MbS wasn’t responsible for ordering Khashoggi’s murder.

Oil prices moved lower on the statement as investors interpreted it as just another sign that the US won’t follow through with any material sanctions or other punitive measures against the kingdom itself (though the Treasury Department did sanction 17 individual Saudis, including a senior aide to the prince, over their alleged involvement. Presumably, as long as the kingdom does everything in its power to keep oil prices low, Trump won’t give them any problems.

Read the full statement below:

America First!

The world is a very dangerous place!

The country of Iran, as an example, is responsible for a bloody proxy war against Saudi Arabia in Yemen, trying to destabilize Iraq’s fragile attempt at democracy, supporting the terror group Hezbollah in Lebanon, propping up dictator Bashar Assad in Syria (who has killed millions of his own citizens), and much more. Likewise, the Iranians have killed many Americans and other innocent people throughout the Middle East. Iran states openly, and with great force, “Death to America!” and “Death to Israel!” Iran is considered “the world’s leading sponsor of terror.”

On the other hand, Saudi Arabia would gladly withdraw from Yemen if the Iranians would agree to leave. They would immediately provide desperately needed humanitarian assistance. Additionally, Saudi Arabia has agreed to spend billions of dollars in leading the fight against Radical Islamic Terrorism.

After my heavily negotiated trip to Saudi Arabia last year, the Kingdom agreed to spend and invest $45c) billion in the United States. This is a record amount of money. It will create hundreds of thousands of jobs, tremendous economic development, and much additional wealth for the United States. Of the $45 billion will be spent on the purchase of military equipment from Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon and many other great U.S. defense contractors. If we foolishly cancel these contracts, Russia and China would be the enormous beneficiaries – and very happy to acquire all of this newfound business. It would be a wonderful gift to them directly from the United States!

The crime against Jamal Khashoggi was a terrible one, and one that our country does not condone. Indeed, we have taken strong action against those already said to have participated in the murder. After great independent research, we now know many details of this horrible crime. We have already sanctioned 17 Saudis known to have been involved in the murder of Mr. Khashoggi, and the disposal of his body.

Representatives of Saudi Arabia say that Jamal Khashoggi was an “enemy of the state” and a member of the Muslim Brotherhood, but my decision is in no way based on that – this is an unacceptable and horrible crime. King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammad b. Salimn vigorously deny any knowledge of the planning or execution of the murder of Mr. Khashoggi. Our intelligence agencies continue to assess all information, but it could very well be that the Crown Prince had knowledge of this tragic event – maybe he did and maybe he didn’t!

That being said, we may never know all of the facts surrounding the murder of Mr. Jamal Khashoggi. In any case, our relationship is with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. They have been a great ally in our very important fight against Iran. The United States intends to remain a steadfast partner of Saudi Arabia to ensure the interests of our count, Israel and all other partners in the region. It is our paramount goal to fully eliminate the threat of terrorism throughout the world!

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

The three commodities: oil, copper and lumber are all signaling we are already in the next economic downtur

(courtesy Michael Snyder/Economic Collapse blog)

“The Outlook For The Global Economy Has Deteriorated”: Oil, Copper, & Lumber Signal The Next Economic Downturn Is Here

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

Oil, copper and lumber are all telling us the exact same thing, and it isn’t good news for the global economy. When economic activity is booming, demand for commodities such as oil, copper and lumber goes up and that generally causes prices to rise. But when economic activity is slowing down, demand for such commodities falls and that generally causes prices to decline. In recent weeks, we have witnessed a decline in commodity prices unlike anything that we have witnessed in years, and many are concerned that this is a very clear indication that hard times are ahead for the global economy.

Let’s talk about oil first. The price of oil peaked in early October, but since that time it has fallen more than 25 percent, and the IEA is warning of “relatively weak” demand out of Asia and Europe…

The International Energy Agency said on Wednesday that while US demand for oil has been “very robust,” demand in Europe and developed Asian countries “continues to be relatively weak.” The IEA also warned of a “slowdown” in demand in developing nations such as India, Brazil and Argentina caused by high oil prices, weak currencies and deteriorating economic activity.

“The outlook for the global economy has deteriorated,” the IEA wrote.

Meanwhile, the price of copper has been declining for quite some time now. The price of copper also fell substantially just before the last recession, and many analysts are pointing out that “Dr. Copper” is now waving a red flag once again…

The message of weakening demand on the oil front was reinforced by the falling price of copper. The base metal is often referred to as “Dr. Copper” on its presumed ability to forecast the peaks and troughs of business cycles since it is used in different areas of the economy such as homes, factories and electricity generation. Copper has served as a leading indicator of both recessions and economic booms.

The price of lumber is a “third witness” that indicates that big trouble is looming.

Last month, lumber dropped more than 10 percent, and that was the biggest monthly drop that we have seen in more than 7 years…

In October, prices for softwood lumber in the U.S. dropped 10.3% – the largest decline since May 2011, according to the Producer Price Index (PPI) release by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The producer price index for softwood lumber has fallen 21.2% since setting the cycle and all-time high in June.

If oil, copper and lumber are all telling us the same thing simultaneously, don’t you think that we should be listening?

At this point, even Bloomberg is admitting that the global economy is heading toward “a generalized slowdown”…

These developments suggest the synchronized growth that the global economy has enjoyed in recent years is likely to be replaced by a generalized slowdown. Just take a look at the data out of Japan and Germany this week, which showed the world’s third- and fourth-largest economies contracted in the third quarter.

How many signs is it going to take before people start understanding what is happening?

Wells Fargo just notified about 1,000 employees that they will be laid off. Job losses are starting to mount, and it is likely that we will start to see these sorts of news stories on an almost daily basis now.

And as the shaking on Wall Street accelerates, we are going to see more financial firms get into trouble. In fact, we just witnessed the total collapse of OptionSellers.com. The following comes from a notice that they sent to investors informing them that they lost all their money and that the firm is being liquidated…

I am writing to give you an update on the situation here with your account.

We have spent the week unwinding our short natural gas call position as expediently as possible.

Today which was to be the final day of liquidation, the market flared as prices appear to have been caught in a “short squeeze.”

The speed at which it took place is truly beyond anything I have seen in my career. It overran our risk control systems and left us at the mercy of the market.

In short, it was a rogue wave and it overwhelmed us.

Unfortunately, this has resulted in a catastrophic loss.

Our clearing firm, FC Stone now requires us to liquidate all positions. We hoped to have this done today. If not, it will be completed tomorrow.

Your account could potentially be facing a debit balance as of tomorrow. OptionSellers.com will be processing fee credits over the course of the coming days to help alleviate debit balances. What these will be will be determined after all positions are cleared.

This has in effect, crippled the firm. At this point, our brokers at FC Stone have been assisting us in liquidation.

Our offices will remain open and we will all still be here to answer your questions and process account closings. We will do everything in our power to ease what discomfort we can.

I am truly sorry this has happened.

I will be updating you again via memo in 24 hours.

Regards,

OptionSellers.com

Those investors are among the first to be completely wiped out, but they certainly won’t be the last.

The ironic thing is that Americans are less concerned about another crisis than they have been at any point since 2008 at a time when they should be more focused on getting prepared than ever.

You know that it is really late in the game when even Jim Cramer of CNBC is saying that the U.S. economy is really slowing down. A few of my readers wrote me after that article because they didn’t like the fact that I had quoted Jim Cramer. But I don’t think that they really got my point. I was not endorsing Jim Cramer as some sort of financial guru. Rather, I was pointing out that even mainstream media celebrities that were previously cheerleaders for the economy are now recognizing the reality of what we are facing.

Global economic activity is slowing down, and things are shifting very rapidly now. The weather is already getting very cold, the mood of the nation is very dark, and it would only take a very small push to send us completely tumbling over the edge.

END

7 OIL ISSUES

The collapse in crude illustrates to us the complete degradation in the global economy. The low oil price will be good for consumers and good for miners as costs go down. However it will be devastating our for oil drillers in the USA and we may see considerable defaults.

(courtesy zerohedge)

WTI Crude Crashes To $53 Handle, 12-Month Lows

Oil is plunging again this morning (down almost 6%) on persistent fears that a surplus will re-emerge next year despite OPEC’s plans to cut production.

As trader await API inventory data tonight, expected to show a ninth weekly increase – the longest streak in a year – concerns grow that Russia may not play nice with OPEC and cut production when they meet next month.

“The name of the game in the oil market is volatility,” International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol said at a conference in Oslo.

“And with the increasing pressure of geopolitics on oil markets that we are seeing, we believe that we are entering an unprecedented period of uncertainty.”

And sellers are not holding their breath – WTI is down almost 6% today to its lowest since Nov 2017…

How long before we are reassured by the mainstream business media that this is great news – for America’s pocketbook?

end

Now below 52.00 per barrel triggering more shorts jumping on the bandwagon

(courtesy zerohedge)

Oil Crashes Most In 3 Years, Triggering CTA “Max Short” Programs

There’s something about Tuesdays.

Exactly one week after oil plunged on November 13, tumbling over 7%, West Texas Intermediate is being thrown out with the bathwater, and on Tuesday afternoon it has plunged another 7.5% sliding from $56.76 to below $52...

… the lowest price since November 2, 2017, its WTI’s biggest drop since Sept. 1, 2015.

While some have noted that the oil, pardon the pun, liquidation is not unique and is hitting all commodities – perhaps in response to the surge in the dollar – including precious metals, the sell off has also spilled over into commodity currencies, with NOK getting hammered, while the Loonie just tumbled to the lowest level against the dollar in 4 months, while AUD and NZD are also getting hit. Predictably, the dollar is surging (just as virtually every bank declared the time to sell the greenback is here).

Positioning is also helping the slide, as the latest CFTC data showed the seventh consecutive week of net longs positions being sharply reduced in Brent as well as the tenth straight week of managed money declines in WTI.

Then there are the usual geopolitical suspects, with headlines suggesting that another OPEC output production cut in December is still up in the air, and will ultimately depend on Russia.

Finally, oil is also getting the “capitulatory rinse-treatment” as well, as systematic and trend-following models jump on the short side: Nomura’s CTA model shows that the “-13% Short” as of Monday’s close shifts to “Max Short” below $53.93, which would imply an additional -$1.3B on notional supply. And with WTI now below $53, it is likely that any additional declines will only lead to even more algos jumping on the short side and accelerating what is already a historic plunge.

The question now is how many more hedge funds will be OptionSellered, and suffer “catastrophic loss events” as a result of today’s crash. We also look forward to learning what Andurand’s November redemption requests will be.

end

8. EMERGING MARKETS

END

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00

Euro/USA 1.1420 DOWN .0034 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES RED

USA/JAPAN YEN 112.35 DOWN 0.107 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL

GBP/USA 1.2842 DOWN 0.0014 (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3193 UP .0020 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 12 basis point, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1421 / Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED DOWN 57.66 POINTS OR 2.13%

//Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 531.66 POINTS OR 2.02%

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.47% /EUROPEAN BOURSES RED

The NIKKEI: this TUESDAY morning CLOSED DOWN 238.04 POINTS OR 1.09%

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED RED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 531.66 POINTS OR 2.02%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 57.66 POINTS OR 2.13%

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.47%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 238.04 POINTS OR 1.09%

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1225.80

silver:$14.45

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 3.04% !!! DOWN 1 IN POINTS from MONDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

The 30 yr bond yield 3.30 DOWN 2 IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 96.33 UP 17 CENT(S) from MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.99% UP 0 in basis point(s) yield from MONDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.10% DOWN 0 BASIS POINTS from MONDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/EXTREMELY VOLATILE YESTERDAY…

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.65% up 0 IN basis point yield from MONDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.62 up 2 POINTS in basis point yield from MONDAY/

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 197 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS UP TO +.35% IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 3.27% AND NOW ABOVE THE THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE BANK RUN…

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1394 DOWN .0061 or 61 basis points

USA/Japan: 112.65 UP .190 OR 19 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2807 DOWN .0049( POUND DOWN 49 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 75 basis points to 1.3248

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

This afternoon, the Euro was FELL BY 61 BASIS POINTS to trade at 1.1394

The Yen FE;; to 112.65 for a LOSS of 19 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE

The POUND LOST 49 basis points, trading at 1.2807/

The Canadian dollar LOST 75 basis points to 1.3248

The USA/Yuan,CNY closed UP AT 6.9453- ON SHORE (YUAN DOWN)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: 6.9412( YUAN DOWN)

TURKISH LIRA: 5.4008

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.10%

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 1 IN basis points from MONDAY at 3.05 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.31 DOWN 1 in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 96.60 UP 40 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 4:00 PM

London: CLOSED DOWN 46.44 POINTS OR 0.67%

German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 168.22 POINTS OR 1.50%
Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 55.51 POINTS OR 1.11%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 137.10 POINTS OR 1.52%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN: 313.97 POINTS OR 1.67%/

WTI Oil price; 54.23 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 63.35 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN / ROUBLE CROSS: 65.98 THE CROSS HIGHER BY .36 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE LOWER by 36 BASIS PTS)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 5.4008 PER ONE USA DOLLAR.

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS +.35 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:53.32

BRENT:62.39

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.05%..

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.31%/.

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1367 ( DOWN 87 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:112.69 UP .236 (YEN DOWN 24 BASIS POINTS/ .

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 96.82 UP 63 cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.2782 DOWN 74 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 5.3856

the Russian rouble: 66.19 DOWN 57 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 57 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar: 1.3310 DOWN 137 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 6.9453 (ONSHORE)

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.9428 (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.35%

The Dow closed DOWN 551.80 POINTS OR 2.55%

NASDAQ closed DOWN 119.65 points or 1.70% 4.00 PM EST

VOLATILITY INDEX: 22/65 CLOSED UP 2.55

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.646% .LIBOR RATES ARE RISING/GOOD JUMP today

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY

Stocks Slammed Into Red For 2018 Amid Carnage In Crude, Crypto, & Credit

“Don’t worry, I have protection…”

Unlike Monday, Chinese stocks were ugly overnight, erasing yesterday’s ‘odd’ gains…

And Yuan weakened modestly…

European stocks extended yesterday’s losses…

Pushing Europe to its lowest in two years…

US equities collapsed into the cash open, bounced to the european close then gave it all back…

All major US equity indices went red on the year…

From the highs:

Dow Industrials -9.2%
S&P -10.2% (Correction)
Dow Transports -12.1% (Correction)
Nasdaq Composite -15.1% (Correction)
Nasdaq 100 -15.3% (Correction)
Russell 2000 -15.6% (Correction)

This is the Nasdaq’s worst year since 2011…

Semis entered bear market and S&P Tech has almost erased the year’s gains…

FANGs are in a bear market, back to lowest since Jan..

But saw some dip-buying today…

Boeing was down for a record 9th day in a row… and despite the bounce from the opening flash crash, still ended lower…

Nasdaq 100 30d volatility sits at 35, the highest level since late 2011, which just means more mechanical “VaR-down” is coming for these “longs”.

US Investment Grade Credit risk continued to charge wider – to widest since Nov 2016 – but still remains ‘cheap’ protection relative to stocks (VIX > 23 today)…

US High Yield Corporate Bonds are down 9 days in a row – a record losing streak…

Investors have demanded more money to provide insurance against junk-rated default risk for nine consecutive days, the longest such period since January 2010. Implied spreads on high-yield bonds, as per credit-default swaps indexes, are the highest since 2016.

It is time…

Bond yields and stocks have generally tracked each other well in the last two weeks – though the yield ‘delta’ to stocks has been notably lower than is normal…

Given the carnage in stocks and credit, Treasury bonds rallied only modestly...

But inflation breakevens collapsed to one-year lows, as oil plunged…

The Dollar surged today, erasing Friday’s plunge…

Who could have seen that coming?

Cryptos had a really ugly start but rebounded for the rest of the day…

Despite the surge in the dollar, gold manage to end unchanged as copper, and silver slipped lower…

WTI Crude crashed over 7%, now getting the capitulatory rinse-treatment as well (As Nomura’s CTA model shows “-13% Short,” goes “Max Short” under 53.93, which would imply ~-$1.3B on notional supply)…

Massive volume today as WTI hit 12-month lows.

Finally, we note that the Value Line Geometric Index has tumbled back to critical peak levels…

And then there’s this…”You Are Here”

It only seemed appropriate to end with this…

market trading

Early morning: Nasdaq crashing, as Apple collapses

(courtesy zerohedge)

Nasdaq Futures Are Crashing As Apple Collapses

After yesterday’s bloodbath, the world and their pet rabbit was ready to BTFD… but that’s not what is happening…

Nasdaq futures are down another 2%, Dow futures are down almost 400 points and S&P futures are now red for 2018…

AAPL is down almost 4%!! (after Goldman’s second downgrade)

“No brainer”

And 10Y yields are down for the 7th day in a row…

The dollar is up and so is gold.

market data/

Housing is a large component in the calculation of GDP. Today starts and permits continue with their poor reports

(courtesy zerohedge)

Starts, Permits Offer No Hope For Housing’s Annus Horribilis

With homebuilder optimism finally collapsing down to the reality of ‘hard’ housing data, any glimmer of hope is clung to as if it was writ in stone.

But Housing Starts and Permits failed to offer any light at the end of the tunnel.

Starts rose 1.5% MoM (missing expectations of a 2.2% rise) after tumbling a revised lower 5.5% MoM in September.
Permits fell 0.6% MoM after a revised higher 1.7% rise in September.

Northeast led the rebound in starts but The West was a disaster (Northeast: +21.1% Midwest: +9.4% South -2.4% West -7.9%)

The rise in starts was all rentals (single-family -1.8%, multi-fam +6.3%)

Permits were unimpressive for both single-family (-0.6%) and multi-fam (unch)

The rollover in starts/permits is also concommitant with previous recessions…

And a final reality check…

Fun-durr-mentals matter in the end.

end

USA ECONOMIC STORIES OF INTEREST

Routine for the crooks; Soc Generale to Pay 1.3 billion USA to settle USA sanctions violations against Iran, Sudan and Cuba

(courtesy zerohedge)

SocGen To Pay $1.3 Billion To Settle US Sanctions

Violations Against Iran, Sudan And Cuba

Five months after French bank Societe Generale agreed to pay $1.3 billion to resolve criminal and civil charges in the United States and France for bribing Gaddafi-era Libyan officials and manipulating the Libor interest rate benchmark, on Monday the third-largest French bank did it again when it settled its longstanding sanctions violations case with U.S. authorities, entering a deferred prosecution agreement with federal prosecutors and agreeing to pay another $1.3 billion to New York and Washington regulators.

As part of the settlement, SocGen acknowledged violations of U.S. sanctions laws against Iran, Sudan and Cuba starting as far back as 2003 and extending to 2013, according to Bloomberg. According to a consent order filed by New York’s Department of Financial Services, the bank executed more than 2,600 outbound payments during this period, valued at about $8.3 billion, in violation of U.S. sanctions laws.

In a statement, the NY Fed said that the bank agreed to pay $1.34 billion in all to resolve the settlement. In addition to paying $717 million to the US DOJ, the bank will pay $420 million to New York’s Department of Financial Services, $163 million to the Manhattan District Attorney’s office, $81 million to the U.S. Federal Reserve and $54 million to the U.S. Treasury.

“Societe Generale has admitted its willful violations of U.S. sanctions laws — and longtime concealment of those violations — which resulted in billions of dollars of illicit funds flowing through the U.S. financial system,” said U.S. Attorney Geoffrey S. Berman in Manhattan, which announced the settlement.

“Other banks should take heed: Enforcement of U.S. sanctions laws is, and will continue to be, a top priority of this office and our partner agencies.”

Quoted by Bloomberg, Maria Vullo who leads the Department of Financial Services, said: “The absence of an effective, global sanctions-compliance infrastructure and lack of management oversight allowed Societe Generale employees to ignore the scope and applicability of laws governing economic sanctions.”

And now attention once again turns to Deutsche Bank which according to the Danske Bank whistleblower, Howard Wilkinson, may have been responsible for facilitating an unprecedented $150 billion in money laundering involving shady clients, many of whom were Russians.

As we reported earlier, Deutsche continued to clear transactions for Danske’s Estonia branch until 2015, two years after JPM had ended its correspondent banking relationship with Danske’s Estonia branch over AML concerns. The suspicious funds flowed through Danske between 2007 and 2015 before Denmark’s largest lender closed its non-resident portfolio over AML concerns.

end

David Stockman believes that the stock market will fall by 40%

(courtesy zerohedge)

David Stockman: Trump ‘Playing With Fire’; 40% S&P 500 Correction Coming

Posted by JT Crowe | Nov 19, 2018 | Economy

David Stockman: Trump ‘Playing With Fire’; 40% S&P 500 Correction Coming

Ronald Reagan’s former budget controller, David Stockman, is predicting a massive market collapse of about 40 percent is coming, and he also isn’t too impressed with President Donald Trump’s spending, his attacks on the Federal Reserve or his trade tactics.

Stockman has long been an advocate of balanced budgets and cuts to government spending, and he’s none too pleased with how the current administration has cut corporate tax rates and blown up the national debt, saying Trump is “playing with fire at the very top of an ageing expansion” in a recent interview with CNBC.

He also criticized Trump’s attacks on the Fed, saying “He’s attacking the Fed for going too quick when it’s been dithering for eight years. The funds rate at 2.13 percent is still below inflation.”

Regarding the stock market, Stockman said it’s past time for investors to be on the defensive.

Per an interview on CNBC:

“No one has outlawed recessions. We’re within a year or two of one. When it happens, the earnings, $124, $130 a share, will drop to $75 or $80. Put whatever multiple you want on it; that says the fair value of the S&P going into the next recession is well below 2,000 to 1,500 — way below where we are today. Now if you think the economic gods have outlawed recession, that this business cycle will last forever and we’re in some kind of Nirvana, go ahead with the valuation you have today. Otherwise it makes no sense.

The hosts then said: “That’s a 40 percent drop, David. A 40 percent drop you’re looking for in the next recession?”

“Yes, it happened in the last recession — it was 55 percent, and the one before, the Nasdaq 100 it was 80 percent,” Stockman replied. “Of course, that happens every recession. Somehow there is just no memory on Wall Street because it’s kind of a trade by the minute, by the hour, and it’s the chart monkeys trying to find the 200 DMA. That doesn’t explain where we’re going to be at next year or the year after, and we’re going to be in a recession. We’re going to have another market correction, which will be pretty brutal.”

He closed with his thoughts regarding the ongoing trade war with China, saying it isn’t “remotely rational.” China accounts for about 30 percent goods imported to the U.S. As a result, tariffs will drive up prices and it “is going to hit the whole goods economy with inflation like you’ve never seen before.”

https://moneyandmarkets.com/stockman- recession-market-correction-t
rump/? post_ids=5436,5266,4835,4293,6525&utm_source=MAM- Newsl
etter&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=Daily- Article-Traffic

-END-

SWAMP STORIES

I guess Democrats just do not know how to accept defeat. They are planning to boycott filming in Georgia after Stacey Abrams defeat

(courtesy Mac Slavo.SHFTPlan.com)

Hollywood Actors Threaten To Boycott Georgia After Democrat’s Loss

Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,

Several Hollywood actors are calling for a boycott of Georgia’s film industry after Republican Brian Kemp officially won the state’s gubernatorial contest against Democrat Stacey Abrams.

But like the threats to move to Canada if Donald Trump won in 2016, these are also more than likely going to be hollow.

Before Kemp was even certified as the official victor, actors were already threatening to boycott working in Georgia, a state with a large film industry that’s been dubbed the Hollywood of the South; complete with a hashtag: #boycottGeorgia

steven pasquale

✔@StevePasquale

Hundred percent agreed.

Billions of Hollywood dollars spent and created in GA. We can do something about this.#boycottgeorgia

Bradley Whitford

✔@WhitfordBradley

Brian Kemp is a corrupt, homophobic, unapologetic disenfranchiser of African American voters. If he seizes power, Hollywood needs to use it’s leverage and pull out of Georgia. Studios need to put their money where their mouth is and stand up to hate. #boycottgeorgia

Abrams has since responded to the calls for a boycott from Hollywood elitists, saying that while she appreciates Hollywood’s calls for action, she does not want them to hurt people who make a living in the state’s film industry. Instead, the Democratic politician wants the actors to get involved in a new voting rights organization she is launching called “Fair Fight Georgia.”

Abrams has said that she has plans to run for office again. In a Sunday morning interview with CNN’s Jake Tapper, she refused to call Kemp a “legitimate” governor and claimed there was “a deliberate and intentional disinvestment and I think destruction of the administration of elections in the state of Georgia.”

Abrams mounted several lawsuits over the election results and repeatedly declared she wouldn’t admit defeat until every vote was counted. Abrams did eventually acknowledge that Kemp would be the winner of the election, she refused to call her speech a “concession” because a “concession means to acknowledge an action is right, true, or proper,” according to a report by The Western Journal. This action seems to upset the elitists in Hollywood. While their own state of California burns to the ground, they are concerned about another state across the country in which they don’t live. If there’s ever been a bigger group of hypocrites to roam the earth than liberal celebrities, we’ve yet to discover them.

end

Let us see where this is heading: Ivanka Trump has been found to have used personal email to conduct official government business.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Ivanka Trump Found To Have Used Personal Email To

Conduct Official Government Business

Ivanka Trump used her personal email account to send “hundreds” of emails last year to White House aides, assistants and Cabinet officials, according to the Washington Post, citing “people familiar with a White House examination of her correspondence.” Of that, however, she discussed government policies “less than 100 times” – and none of the content was classified.

The breach in protocol was discovered after a review last fall after five Cabinet agencies were forced to respond to a public records lawsuit.

That review revealed that throughout much of 2017, she often discussed or relayed official White House business using a private email account with a domain that she shares with her husband, Jared Kushner.

The discovery alarmed some advisers to President Trump, who feared that his daughter’s practices bore similarities to the personal email use of Hillary Clinton, an issue he made a focus of his 2016 campaign. Trump attacked his Democratic challenger as untrustworthy and dubbed her “Crooked Hillary” for using a personal email account as secretary of state. –WaPo

And while the Post is quick to compare Ivanka’s personal email use to Hillary Clinton’s, her attorney’s spokesman, Peter Mirijanian, said that none of the emails contained classified information. The Post ads that some aides were “startled by the volume” of Ivanka Trump’s personal emails, and “taken aback by her response” that she was not familiar with the rules.

“While transitioning into government, after she was given an official account but until the White House provided her the same guidance they had given others who started before she did, Ms. Trump sometimes used her personal account, almost always for logistics and scheduling concerning her family,” said Mirijanian, who said that Ivanka turned over all of her government-related emails several months ago for permanent storage among other White House records.

He also stressed that Ivanka’s use of personal email was different from Clinton’s – which were stored on a private email server in the basement of her Chappaqua, NY home, and thousands of which were deleted amid a criminal investigation.

“Ms. Trump did not create a private server in her house or office, no classified information was ever included, the account was never transferred at Trump Organization, and no emails were ever deleted,” said Mirijanian.

Clinton also relied solely on a private email system while secretary of state, bypassing government servers entirely.

In December, 2016, Ivanka and her husband, Jared Kushner, set up personal email accounts under the domain “ijkfamily.com” via a Microsoft system, according to the Post‘s sources.

The couple’s emails are prescreened by the Trump Organization for security problems such as viruses but are stored by Microsoft, the people said.

Trump used her personal account to discuss government policies and official business less than 100 times — often replying to other administration officials who contacted her through her private email, according to people familiar with the review. –WaPo

Outside of the “less than 100” discussions, hundreds of messages related to her travel details and official works schedule that she sent herself and nannies for her children were also included in the discovery.

According to the Post, those close to Ivanka say she never intended to use her private email to “shroud her government work,” and it was discovered that “Ivanka had not received White House updates and reminders to all staff about prohibited use of private email.”

The Post spends the rest of the article trying to compare Ivanka’s personal email use to that of Hillary Clinton, and notes that Jared Kushner “drew intense scrutiny” when his own use of personal email for government work came to light.

The revelation prompted demands from congressional investigators that Kushner preserve his records, which his attorney said he had.

But Trump had used her personal email for official business far more frequently, according to people familiar with the administration’s review — a fact that remained a closely held secret inside the White House.

“She was the worst offender in the White House,” said a former senior U.S. government official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe internal dynamics.

Following the discovery of the extent of Ivanka’s personal email use in September 2017, White House lawyers relied on her attorney, Abbe Lowell, to keep an eye on her and review personal emails in order to determine which were personal and which were official business, according to the Post‘s sources.

In many cases, meanwhile, government officials contacted Ivanka Trump first using her personal email address – such as an April 2017 note she received from Treasury official Dan Kowalski, who wanted to set up a meeting between President Trump and the secretary general of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

“I apologize for reaching out to you on your personal email for this, but it is the only email I have for you,” he wrote.

“For future reference my WH email is [redacted],” Ivanka replied. “Thanks for reaching out and making this introduction.”

end

SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

CBS: President Trump says written answers to Mueller questions will be sent next week, speculates that questions were “tricked up” to catch him in a liehttps://cbsn.ws/2QRnruw

The perpetual campaign, which doesn’t allow for any conciliation after elections, is a major reason for the hate & venom that plagues US politics and the nation in whole. We are old enough to remember when the MSM hailed Bill Clinton for employing ‘the perpetual campaign’ strategy.

@realDonaldTrump: So funny to see little Adam Schitt (D-CA) [Rep. Adam Schiff] talking about the fact that Acting Attorney General Matt Whitaker was not approved by the Senate, but not mentioning the fact that Bob Mueller (who is highly conflicted) was not approved by the Senate!

House Republicans will subpoena Comey and Lynch in a final attempt to extract some info on Spygate. They are likely to stall and run out the clock – or just refuse to appear. This will allow anyone subpoenaed by Schiff, when he takes control of the House Intel Com, to ignore his subpoenas.

Republican Young Kim loses lead in California House race, accuses opponent Gil Cisneros of harassing vote counters

Kim is vying to replace retiring Rep. Ed Royce, R-Calif., in California’s 39th District, which includes part of the state’s more Republican Orange County. Last week, she held about a 3-point lead over Democrat Gil Cisneros with about 150,000 votes counted. But since then, that lead vanished, with Cisneros taking a 941-vote as of late Thursday…

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/republican-young-kim-loses-lead-in-california-house-race-accuses-opponent-gil-cisneros-of-harassing-vote-counters

@Barnes_Law: Every post-war President to lose the House in his first midterm went on to win reelection.

@politico: Chuck Grassley plans to trade his Senate Judiciary Committee gavel to lead the Finance Committee next year, he said on Friday — leaving Lindsey Graham in line to replace him as chairman

Grassley, a former Finance chairman, opted to return to a committee that also enjoys extensive jurisdiction, including taxes and trade as well as Medicare and Medicaid. The Iowa Republican is set to replace retiring Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) as Finance chief next year, while also replacing him as Senate pro tem… https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/16/grassley-finance-committee-996195

Top Dem Donors to Receive Closed-Door Briefing from Adam Schiff

Democracy Alliance donors hold secret meeting with top Intelligence Committee Democrat

Known partners of the Democracy Alliance include high profile liberal financiers such as George Soros and Tom Steyer, but it is unknown whether either will be in attendance. The exact number of partners and their identities are kept secret by the group… [Will Fusion GPS be invited?]

https://freebeacon.com/politics/top-dem-donors-to-receive-closed-door-briefing-from-adam-schiff/

Dem Rep. Eric Swalwell: If We Confiscate Your Guns and You Fight Back, We Will Nuke You

https://hotair.com/archives/2018/11/16/dem-rep-eric-swalwell-confiscate-guns-fight-back-will-nuke/

You can’t make this up! Hollywood figures are threatening to boycott the State of Georgia because the Democratic candidate for Governor lost!!!

Georgia leaders try to stem Hollywood revolt after Kemp’s win

The film industry has exploded in Georgia since the tax incentives were first signed into law in 2005, turning the state into one of the most popular filming locations in the world and spawning a string of studios, editing hubs and post-production businesses that cater to filmmakers…

…

END

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR NOV CONTRACT:0 NOTICE(S) FOR nil OZ

1 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

5,000 OZ/

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE $4600: down $318

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $4481 down 455

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

3 C/ CHINA

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

7. OIL ISSUES

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

Let us head over to the comex:

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY: 282,670 contracts,

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY: 243,287 contracts..

INITIAL standings for NOV/GOLD

And now for silver

AND NOW THE NOV DELIVERY MONTH

NOV INITIAL standings/SILVER

Inventory 325.019 MILLION OZ

Next rally in monetary metals will be an explosion, GATA chairman says

Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results, important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

“A Sea Of Red”: Global Stocks Plunge With Tech

Shares In Freefall

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

3 C CHINA

“A Daisy Chain Of Defaults”: How Debt Cross-Guarantees Could Spark China’s Next Crisis

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

“The Market Is Killing Us” – European Stocks Crash To

2-Year Lows

Dismal UK Housing Market Posts First Annual Decline In 7 Years

Theresa May Gambling On “Unicorn Fantasy” Compromise To Save Brexit Deal

Operation Temperer Exposed: UK Army’s Secret Plan For Martial Law If ‘No Deal’ Brexit

France Suffers Anti-Carbon Revolt: Massive Road Blocks Against Macron’s Diesel Tax

Location of Roadblocks

Make France Great Again

Macron Insists UK Abide by Climate Change Accord

Deutsche Bank Shares Hit Record Low On Massive Money Laundering Fears

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Saudis Agree To Yemen Peace Talks – Ceasefire In Effect For First Time Since War’s Start

Iraqi Dinar May Replace Dollar And Euro In Iran’s 2nd Largest Export Market

Trump Affirms Support For MbS, Warns “World Is A Dangerous Place”

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

“The Outlook For The Global Economy Has Deteriorated”: Oil, Copper, & Lumber Signal The Next Economic Downturn Is Here

7 OIL ISSUES

WTI Crude Crashes To $53 Handle, 12-Month Lows

Oil Crashes Most In 3 Years, Triggering CTA “Max Short” Programs

8. EMERGING MARKETS

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 4:00 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY

Stocks Slammed Into Red For 2018 Amid Carnage In Crude, Crypto, & Credit

market trading

Nasdaq Futures Are Crashing As Apple Collapses

market data/

Starts, Permits Offer No Hope For Housing’s Annus Horribilis

SocGen To Pay $1.3 Billion To Settle US Sanctions

Violations Against Iran, Sudan And Cuba

David Stockman: Trump ‘Playing With Fire’; 40% S&P 500 Correction Coming

Hollywood Actors Threaten To Boycott Georgia After Democrat’s Loss

Ivanka Trump Found To Have Used Personal Email To

Conduct Official Government Business

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