NOV 21/GOLD UP $6.70 TO $1227.45/SILVER ADVANCES 23 CENTS TO $14.52/PROSECUTORS ASK A DELAY IN THE CLASS ACTION SUITS ON OUR TWO PRECIOUS METALS BUT THIS DOES NOT HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE DEUTSCHE CIVIL CASE/BART CHILTON INA RT PODCAST :BOOM OR BUST STATES THAT THERE WAS SEVERAL INSTANCES OF MANIPULATION BY THE BANKERS OF GOLD AND SILVER BUT THEY DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO PROSECUTE: (THIS WAS BEFORE THE JPMORGAN SELF CONFESSION OF EDMONDS/EU REJECTS ITALY’S BUDGETARY PROPOSAL AND NOW THE EU WILL SET SANCTIONS SOMETHING THAT THE POPULACE WILL NOT BE VERY HAPPY ABOUT/

 

 

 

 

GOLD: $1227.45 UP  $6.70 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver:   $14.52 UP  23 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  1226.00

 

silver: $14.49

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold and silver:

NOV

 

 

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  NOV CONTRACT:3 NOTICE(S) FOR 300 OZ

Total number of notices filed so far for NOV:  209  for 20900 OZ  (0.6500 TONNES)

 

 

 

 

 

FOR NOVEMBER

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

51 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR

255,000 OZ/

Total number of notices filed so far this month: 1459 for 7,295,000 oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE  $4641: up $78

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $4560  down $2.00 

 

end

 

XXXX

 

China is controlling the gold market

WE WILL NOT PROVIDE LONDON FIXES AS THEY ARE NOT ACCURATE AS TO WHAT IS GOING ON AT THE SAME TIME FRAME.

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A TINY 96 CONTRACTS FROM 222,953 UP TO  223,049  DESPITE YESTERDAY’S 14 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY(WELL OVER 30 MILLION OZ AT THE COMEX FOR JULY , 6 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST AND NOW JUST LESS THAN 31 MILLION OZ STANDING IN SEPTEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

EFP’S FOR NOV.  1335 EFP’S FOR DECEMBER AND 0 FOR MARCH AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 1335 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1335 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1335 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 7.78 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 14 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR THE JUNE/2018 COMEX DELIVERY MONTH. (5.420 MILLION OZ);  30.370 MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN JULY, FOR AUGUST: 6.065 MILLION OZ AND  39.505 MILLION  OZ STANDING  IN SEPT.  2,520,000 OZ STANDING IN OCTOBER. AND NOW SO FAR A HUGE 7,430,000 OZ STANDING FOR NOVEMBER

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF NOV: 38,733 CONTRACTS (FOR 15 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 38,733 CONTRACTS) OR 193.665 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2582 CONTRACTS OR 12.91 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF NOV:  193.665 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 27.57% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:           2,619.74    MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018:                                              236.879     MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018:                                               244.95       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018:                                        236.67       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL 2018:                                           385.75        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MAY 2018:                                             210.05        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JUNE 2018:                                           345.43         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JULY 2018:                                            172.84          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR AUGUST 2018:                                      205.23          MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR SEPTEMBER 2018:                                 167,05          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR OCTOBER 2018:                                     224.875        MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A TINY SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 96 DESPITE THE 14 CENT FALL IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX //YESTERDAY. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A VERY GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1335 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE GAINED A GOOD SIZED: 1436 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 1335 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 96 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THUS DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 14 CENT FALL IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.29 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY IN THE BIG JULY DELIVERY MONTH OF SLIGHTLY OVER 30 MILLION OZ, IN AUGUST ANOTHER BIG 6.065 MILLION OZ IN A NON ACTIVE MONTH  IN SEPTEMBER A FINAL MONSTROUS 39.05 MILLION OZ OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY, WITH HUGE DELIVERIES OF OVER 2 MILLION OZ IN OCTOBER (A NON DELIVERY MONTH) AND NOW  7.430 MILLION OZ IN NOVEMBER….... NOBODY IS PAYING ATTENTION TO THE HUGE NUMBER OF PHYSICAL OUNCES STANDING FOR SILVER THESE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS.

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.115 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 151% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT AUGUST MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 51 NOTICE(S) FOR 255,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  AN INITIAL HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz AND NOW NOV AT 7.430 MILLION OZ.
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE  SIZED 2450 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 525,940 DESPITE THE  LOSS IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/YESTERDAY’S TRADING (A FALL IN PRICE OF $3.95).THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 8268 CONTRACTS:

 

 

NOVEMBER HAD EFP’S ISSUED AND, DECEMBER HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 8268 CONTACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 525,940. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 10,718 CONTRACTS:  2450 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 8268 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN: 10,718 CONTRACTS OR 1,071,800 OZ = 33.33 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A  FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ YESTERDAY TO THE TUNE OF $3.95.

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 5789 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF NOV : 110,447 CONTRACTS OR 11,044,700 OZ OR 343.51 TONNES (15 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 7363 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 15 TRADING DAY IN  TONNES: 343.51 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 343.51/2550 x 100% TONNES =  13,47% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN JULY ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE:     6,560.34  TONNES   *SURPASSED ANNUAL PROD’N

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018:           653.22  TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018:         649.45 TONNES  (20 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018:             741.89 TONNES  (22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR APRIL 2018:                 713.84 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MAY 2018:                   693.80 TONNES ( 22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JUNE 2018                      650.71 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JULY 2018                       605.5 TONNES     (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR AUG. 2018                      488.54  TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR SEPT 2018                       470.64 TONNES   (19 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR OCT. 2018                        543.92 TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 2450 DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICING ($3.95) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 8268 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 8268 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD AN VERY STRONG GAIN OF 10,718 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

8268 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 2450 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 33.33 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS HUGE  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A LOSS OF $3.95 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX???

 

 

we had: 3 notice(s) filed upon for 300 oz of gold at the comex.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD UP $6.70 TODAY: / 

 

NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/GLD INVENTORY   760.86 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 760.86 tonnes.

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY

 

 

 

NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

 

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.019 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A TINY 96 CONTRACTS from 222,953 DOWN TO 223,049  AND MOVING A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

i) 0 EFP’s for November… and

 

1335 CONTRACTS FOR DECEMBER. 0 CONTRACTS FOR MARCH AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1335 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 96 CONTRACTS TO THE 1335 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A GOOD NET GAIN OF 1431 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE  GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 7.155 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER., AND NOW 7.430 MILLION OZ STANDING IN NOVEMBER.

 

 

RESULT: A TINY INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 14 CENT PRICING LOSS THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER GOOD SIZED 1335 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 5.65 POINTS OR 0.21% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 131.13 POINTS OR 0.51% //The Nikkei closed DOWN 75.58 OR 0/35%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.51%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.9370 AS POBC RESUMES  ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER /Oil DOWN to 54.27 dollars per barrel for WTI and 63.63 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.9370AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9323: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING  WEAKER  AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA/

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

3 C/  CHINA

 

 

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)Italy

Conditions getting hotter inside Italy and the EU.  The EU formally reject Italy’s budget which paves the way for sanctions.  This will probably be the out that Italy needs to vacate the Euro

( zerohedge)

ii)Bill Blain discusses events of yesterday and the Italian budgetary deficit affair.  He states: who will buy the 275 billion euros of debt issued by Italy.  He is correct that it will be the Italian banks who will buy this garbage and they are already saturated up to their gills with this stuff. He also states that the ECB will quietly offer the Italians long repo money at zero percent to help them if they reduce their budgetary defict.

( Bill Blain)

iii)GERMANY/DEUTSCHE BANK

It sure looks like these guys can not do anything right. They put on a trade to minimize their risk and they end up losing another 60 million dollars
(courtesy zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Russia/Interpol

Interpol defies Russia and backs Bill Browder as they by-pass the Russian candidate and go with a South Korean as President

( zerohedge)

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

 

7. OIL ISSUES

Crude oil is telling us that demand around the globe is crumbling

( zerohedge)

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Investigators are now probing whether there was criminal activity in last year’s rise in both Bitcoin and Ether
( Bloomberg/GATA)

ii)Bart Chilton on Russia Today is hosting a broadcast on the economy.  He had Schiff on and here the former CFTC commissioner found much evidence of silver rigging even though he stated that there was not enough to prosecute.  However two weeks ago a JPMorgan trader confessed to rigging the gold and silver markets and that he was taught by his superiors.

There is going to be big news coming from future broadcasts  from Bart Chilton and guests..stay tune.d

( GATA/Boom or Bust/Bart Chilton)

iii)Today is the day whereby the LBMA is suppose to be transparent.  It is not as big as thought

( Bloomberg/GATA)

iv)Craig comments on the LBMA “transparency”

(courtesy Craig Hemke/GATA)

v)I guess they are getting a little scared about this!! The USA prosecutors are asking for a delay in a civil suit after JPMorgan after Edmonds confesses to manipulating gold and silver with the help of his superiors!! . This will not have an effect on the Deutsche bank civil case.
(courtesy Dolmetsch)

vii)Here are a few things which could precipitate the next crisis( James Rickards/Daily Reckoning)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING

 

ii)Market data/

a)Again more data to suggest that the USA economy is cooling off: durable good orders plunge including defense spending

( zerohedge)

b)Realtors are urging the Fed to stop hiking as existing home sales slump the most since 2014.  All of the 3 major housing data is slumping:  new starts, permits and now existing home sales

( zerohedge)

c)Soft data, U. of Michigan confidence data drops on rate hike expectations.( zerohedge)

 

 

 

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

a)The situation inside Illinois is pretty bad as Millennials leave.

an excellent presentation as to their huge deficits

( Ted Dabrowski/WirePoints.com)

b)Tom Luongo believes that it is Bill Browder who is behind the anti Russia Interpol propaganda.  He is no doubt correct and he explains why

(courtesy Tom Luongo)

c)Five huge American derivative players along with the French bank Paribas have considerable problem with the mess at GE.  I would also like to point out that BNP Paribas also has a huge problem with respect to the huge amount of sovereign Italian debt that they have purchased.

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

 

d)Two events caused the market to rise: MNI feels that the Fed may end rate hikes and the second was a report that peter Navarro will be “excluded’ form the Trump Xi summit

( zerohedge)

iv)SWAMP STORIES

a)Looks like Avenatti’s  newfound fame is over.  His accuser shows pictures of bruises and claims that he dragged her across the apartment.

We wish Avenatti the best of luck

( zerohedge)

b)The House GOP is now asking Huber to testify in the Clinton foundation probe as wll as whistleblowers
( zerohedge
c)i do not think it is a good idea to fire barbs at the Chief Justice of the uSA. Trump has referred to judges appointed by Obama as “Obama Judges” etc. However he is correct.
( zerohedge)
E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

Let us head over to the comex:

 

The total gold comex open interest ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2450 CONTRACTS UP to an OI level 525,940 DESPITE THE FALL IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($3.95 IN YESTERDAY’S COMEX TRADING). FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE. ONCE WE GET TO FIRST DAY NOTICE, THEN THE OPEN INTEREST RISES AND AGAIN THEY DID NOT DISAPPOINT US.

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A  STRONG SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 8268 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

NOV: 0 EFP’S AND DECEMBER:  8268 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  8268 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  10,718TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 8268 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A CONSIDERABLE 2450 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 10,718 contracts OR 1,071,800 OZ OR 33.33 TONNES.

 

We are now in the non active contract month of November. For the November contract month, we have 12 notices standing so we GAINED 7 contracts. We had 0 notices served YESTERDAY so we gained 7 contracts or an additional 700 oz of gold will stand for gold at the comex and these guys refused to morphed into London based forwards as well as negate receiving a fiat bonus for the trouble.

 

 

 

 

 

The next delivery month after November is the very big December contract month and here the OI FELL by 15,269 contracts  to 256,224 contracts.  January saw a RISE TO 3534 FOR A GAIN OF 82 CONTRACTS.  February gained 17,915 contracts to stand at 192,283 contracts.

FOR COMPARISON TO THE 2017 CONTRACT MONTH:

ON NOV 21/2017 WE HAD 243,578 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS COMPARED TO THIS YEAR: 256,224.

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE DEC 1/2017: 37.035 TONNES STOOD FOR DELIVERY

EVENTUALLY BY DEC 31.2017:  28.592 TONNES STOOD AND THE REST MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

AS A REMINDER WE HAVE ONLY 4.000 TONNES OF REGISTERED GOLD READY TO SERVE UPON OUR DEC LONGS.

 

 

 

 

WE HAD 3 NOTICES FILED AT THE COMEX FOR 300 OZ.

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI ROSE BY221CONTRACTS FROM 222,953 UP TO 223,174 (AND CLOSER THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S GOOD  OI COMEX GAIN  OCCURRED WITH A 14 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOVEMBER AND, WE WERE  INFORMED THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED 1335 EFP CONTRACTS:  FOR NOVEMBER:  0 CONTRACTS AND FOR …

 

FOR DECEMBER: 1335 CONTRACTS, FOR MARCH 0 CONTRACTS, AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS.  THESE EFPS WERE ISSUED TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 1335.  ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 1556 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A  221 CONTRACT GAINAT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 1335OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:   1556CONTRACTS...AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 14 CENT LOSS IN PRICING// YESTERDAY

 

 

 

 

We are now in the non active delivery month of NOVEMBER and here we now have 78 notices  standing for a gain of 74 contacts.  We had 1 notice served upon yesterday so we gained 75 contracts or an additional 375,000 oz will  stand for delivery as these longs refused to  morph into London based forwards as well as not accepting a fiat bonus for their efforts. SOMEBODY TODAY WAS IN GREAT NEED OF PHYSICAL SILVER

 

 

 

 

After November, we have a December contract and here we LOST 15,303 contracts DOWN to 100,100.  January saw a GAIN of 8 contracts up to 1280 contracts.   March, the next big delivery month after December saw a gain of 151913 contracts  up to 99,272

FOR COMPARISON TO THE COMEX 2017 CONTRACT MONTH:

ON NOV 21. 2017 WE HAD STILL  75,364 OPEN  INTEREST CONTRACTS LEFT TO BE SERVED UPON AND THIS COMPARES TO TODAY: 100,100 CONTRACTS

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE DEC 1.2017 WE HAD A RATHER LARGE: 19.47 MILLION OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY

BY THE END OF DECEMBER:  33.295 MILLION OZ AS QUEUE JUMPING WAS THE NAME OF THE GAME IN SILVER.

.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We had 51 notice(s) filed for 255,000 OZ for the NOV, 2018 COMEX contract for silver

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

 

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY: 263,441 contracts,

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  310,354  contracts..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  NOV/GOLD

NOV 21-/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
 nil oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

 

nil

 

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
3 notice(s)
 300 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
9 contracts
(900 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
209 notices
20900 OZ
0.6500 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entry:

 

total gold entering dealer:  0 oz

total gold withdrawing from the dealer;  0 oz

 

we had 0 kilobar transaction/
we had 0 withdrawal out of the customer account:
total customer withdrawals:  nil oz
we had 0 customer deposits
total customer deposits nil oz
we had 0  adjustments..

FOR THE NOV 2018 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 3 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account.

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To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the NOV/2018. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (209) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV. (12 contracts) minus the number of notices served upon today (3 x 100 oz per contract) equals 21,800 OZ OR 0.6781 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this non active month of NOV

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the NOV/2018 contract month:

No of notices served (209 x 100 oz)  + {12)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (3x 100 oz )which equals 21800 oz standing OR 0.6781 TONNES in this NON active delivery month of NOVEMBER.

WE GAINED 7 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 700 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS THESE LONGS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS. QUEUE JUMPING IN GOLD DID RETURN AS THE DEALERS QUEUE JUMPING OBTAINING GOLD AS THEY TRY AND PUT OUT FIRES ELSEWHERE.

 

 

 

 

 

THERE ARE ONLY 3.995 TONNES OF REGISTERED COMEX GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 0.6781 TONNES STANDING FOR NOVEMBER  

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  128,451.881 oz or   3.995 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,015,760.647 oz 249.32 tonnes
 I BELIEVE THAT THIS IS THE LOWEST REGISTERED GOLD READING IN THE COMEX HISTORY..AS WELL AS THE LONGEST WE HAVE SEEN THE REGISTERED COLUMN AT 5 TONNES OR LESS. WE HAVE NOW BROKEN THE 4 TONNES BARRIER TO READ; 3.995 TONNES OF DEALER (REGISTERED) GOLD.

IN THE LAST 27 MONTHS 108 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN: THERE IS NO GOLD AT THE COMEX..AS THE CROOKS SEEMS TO BE FORCING LONGS TO TAKE DELIVERY OF LONDON FORWARDS AND NOT TAKE POSSESSION OF ANY GOLD AT THE COMEX/

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE NOV DELIVERY MONTH

NOV INITIAL standings/SILVER

NOV 21, 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
640,912.073oz
CNT

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
NIL
oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
354,576.100 oz
CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)
51
CONTRACT(S)
255,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
27 contracts
(135,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 1459 contracts

(7,295,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

 

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: NIL oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

we had 1 deposits into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan: nil oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 151.7 million oz of  total silver inventory or 52.09% of all official comex silver. (152.0 million/292 million)

ii)Into CNT  :  354,576.100 OZ

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today: 354,576.100  oz

we had 1 withdrawal out of the customer account:
i) Out of CNT: 640,912.073 oz

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals: 640,912.073.073 oz

 

we had 0 adjustments

i

 

total dealer silver:  79.922 million

total dealer + customer silver:  292.425  million oz

The total number of notices filed today for the NOV 2018. contract month is represented by 51 contract(s) FOR 255,000 oz. To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOV., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1459 x 5,000 oz = 7,295,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV. (78) and the number of notices served upon today (51 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the NOV/2018 contract month: 1459(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of NOV( 78) -number of notices served upon today (51)x 5000 oz equals 7,430,000 oz of silver standing for the NOV contract month.  This is a gigantic number of oz standing for an off delivery month. Somebody is after a large supply of physical silver. We GAINED 75 contracts or an additional 375,000 OZ will  stand at the comex as these longs refused to accept a London based forwards as well as negating the right to receive a fiat bonus. As we explained above somebody was in urgent need of physical silver today.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY: 94,375 CONTRACTS  … 

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 142,600 CONTRACTS… 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 142,600 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 713 million OZ  101.8% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -4.64% (NOV 21/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -1.14% to NAV (NOV 21/2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -4.64%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.38/TRADING 11.81/DISCOUNT 4.64

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

NOV 21/WITH GOLD UP $6.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.86 TONNES

NOV 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.95: A BIG CHANGE: A GOOD SIZED DEPOSIT OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.86 TONNES

NOV 19/WITH GOLD UP $2.05: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.68 TONNES

NOV 16/WITH GOLD UP $8.00: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.48 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.68 TONNES

NOV 15/WITH GOLD UP $5.35/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.16 TONNES

NOV 14/WITH GOLD UP $8.15: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.16 TONNES

NOV 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.75: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 6.77 TONNES AT THE GLD/THAT SHOULD END THE WHACKING OF GOLD FOR NOW AND A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 84 TONNES: INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.16 TONNES

NOV 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.65: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.23

NOV 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.23 TONNES

NOV 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.30: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.23 TONNES

NOV 7/WITH GOLD UP $2.60″ NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.70 TONNES

NOV 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.80 A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .58 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 756.70 TONES

NOV 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.05 TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.77 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 757.29 TONNES

NOV 2/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.05: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.06 TONNES

NOV 1/: 2 TRANSACTIONS:WITH GOLD UP $23.85,A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF .80 TONNES OF GOLD TO PAY FOR FEES, INSURANCE AND STORAGE: INVENTORY AT THE GLD RESTS AT 754.06 TONNES THEN A DEPOSIT OF 6.76 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.82

OCT 31: WITH GOLD DOWN $11.35: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RE3STS AT 754.94 TONNES

OCT 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.30 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 754.94 TONNES

OCTOBER 29/WITH GOLD DOWN $7.75 TODAY/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 749.64 TONNES

OCTOBER 26/WITH GOLD UP $3.65 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 749.64 TONNES

OCT 25/WITH GOLD UP $1.15: A DEPOSIT OF 1.76 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 749.64 TONNES. FROM ITS LOW POINT AT THE BEGINNING OF OCTOBER THE GLD HAS ADDED.19.47 TONNES OF GOLD

OCT 23/WITH GOLD UP $11.85 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 747.88 TONNES

Oct 22/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.90 TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.97 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 745.82

AND THEN: A DEPOSIT OF 2.06 TONNES SUCH THAT THE FINAL RESTING INVENTORY IS 747.88 TONNES

OCT 19/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.70 : NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 748.76 TONNES

OCT 18/WITH GOLD UP $2.80/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RSTS AT 748.76 TONNES

OCT 16/WITH GOLD UP BY ONLY $1.00/WE HAD ANOTHER 4.12 TONNES OF GOLD ADDED TO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 748.76 TONNES

OCT 15/WITH GOLD UP $8.45/ANOTHER 5.65 TONNES OF GOLD WAS ADDED TO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 744.64 TONNES

OCT 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.35/NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.99 TONNES

OCT 11/WITH GOLD UP $35.20 TODAY: A HUGE PAPER GOLD INVENTORY GAIN OF 8.82 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 738.99 TONNES

OCT 10/WITH GOLD UP $2.65 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17 TONNES

OCT 9/WITH GOLD UP $2.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17

OCT 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $18.60 NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 730.17TONNES

 

 

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NOV 21.2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 760.86 tonnes

*IN LAST 501 TRADING DAYS: 174.29 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 401 TRADING DAYS: A NET 14.29 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

NOV 21/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.019 MILLION OZ/

NOV 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 563,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.019 MILLION OZ/

NOV 19/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ/

NOV 16/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ/

NOV 15/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ

NOV 14/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ

NOV 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS; A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 328,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ/

NOV 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS/ A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY A THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 940,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.784 MILLION OZ

NOV 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.724 MILLION OZ/

NOV 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS: A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 281,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.724 MILLION OZ.

NOV 7: WITH SILVER UP 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.005 MILLION OZ/

NOV 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.005 MILLION OZ/

NOV 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.315 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 326.005 MILLION OZ/

NOV 2/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 143,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 327.320 MILLION OZ/

NOV 1/WITH SILVER UP 54 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.033 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. /INVENTORY RESTS AT 327.463 MILLION OZ.

OCT 31/WITH SILVER DOWN  18 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.496 MILLION OZ/

OCT 30/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.496 MILLION OZ

OCTOBER 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 27 CENTS NO  A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV” A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.879 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 328.496 MILLION OZ.

OCTOBER 26/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 330.375 MILLION OZ

OCT 25/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS: ANOTHER HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.315 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 330.375 MILLION OZ/

OCT 23/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS/A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.819 MILLION OZ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 331.690 MILLION OZ.

OCT 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 470,000/INVENTORY RESTS AT 334.509 MILLION OZ/

OCT 19/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INV. RESTS AT 334.039 MILLION OZ

OCT 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.127  MILLION /RESTS AT 334.039 MILLION OZ/

OCT 16/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 15/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 12/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 11/WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ/

OCT 9/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY: SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ

OCT 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 33 CENTS, A GOOD SIZE WITHDRAWAL OF 563,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 332.912 MILLION OZ.

 

 

NOV 21/2018:

 

Inventory 325.019 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

SMALL JUMP IN LIBOR RATES TODAY./

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.42/ and libor 6 month duration 2.86

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .44

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.72%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 3.10

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.38

end

 

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Stock Markets Remains Extremely Overvalued – Hussman

The Heart of the Matter
by  of 

Let’s be clear. October’s market decline was a rather mild warning shot. At its lowest close, the S&P 500 lost -9.9% from its September peak, before rebounding in recent sessions. As I noted during the 2000-2002 and 2007-2009 collapses, intermittent “fast, furious, prone-to-failure” rebounds are among the factors that encourage investors to hold on through the entirety of major declines. After particularly severe down-legs in the market (which we have not yet observed), these rebounds can extend for weeks, and sometimes approach gains of as much as 19% before the market plunges again.

Get used to that kind of volatility. Though it will be essential to monitor market internals for periodic shifts in investor psychology, by the completion of the current market cycle, I continue to expect the S&P 500 to lose nearly two-thirds of its value.

It’s been nearly a year now since we finally identified and fully addressed the core of our difficulty in the half-cycle advance since 2009. In my view, this is such a critical moment in the markets that a careful understanding of that core issue is essential. Though portions will (hopefully) be familiar, I can presently think of no other topic in finance for which the time spent reviewing and understanding will be as valuable.

The heart of the matter, and the key to navigating this brave new world of extraordinary monetary and fiscal interventions, is to recognize that while 1) valuations still inform us about long-term and full-cycle market prospects, and; 2) market internals still inform us about the inclination of investors toward speculation or risk-aversion, the fact is that; 3) we can no longer rely on well-defined limits to speculation, as we could in previous market cycles across history.

Read the full article on AdvisorPerspectives.com

 

News and Commentary

Dow plunges more than 500 points, erases gain for 2018 (CNBC.com)

London reveals size of centuries-old gold market for first time (MarketWatch.com)

Gold dips as investors opt for safe-haven dollar, bonds (Reuters.ocm)

Gold reverses and drops to test $1220 (FXStreet.com)

Brexit: May heading to Brussels amid scramble to finalise deal (BBC.com)

Powell and Gold between Inflation and Global Slowdown (24HGold.com)

Another Great Oxymoron: “LBMA Transparency”-Craig Hemke (20/11/2018) (SprottMoney.com)

London Gold Market Comes Clean: It’s Not as Big as Thought (Bloomberg.com)

The Never-Ending Wars of the United States of America (24HGold.com)

Listen on SoundCloud , Blubrry & iTunesWatch on YouTube below

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

20 Nov: USD 1,223.10, GBP 951.45 & EUR 1,069.97 per ounce
19 Nov: USD 1,223.55, GBP 951.07 & EUR 1,070.97 per ounce
16 Nov: USD 1,215.80, GBP 948.93 & EUR 1,073.07 per ounce
15 Nov: USD 1,210.60, GBP 948.26 & EUR 1,072.71 per ounce
14 Nov: USD 1,201.45, GBP 927.04 & EUR 1,066.05 per ounce
13 Nov: USD 1,197.55, GBP 928.70 & EUR 1,066.18 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

20 Nov: USD 14.44, GBP 11.24 & EUR 12.63 per ounce
19 Nov: USD 14.36, GBP 11.21 & EUR 12.57 per ounce
16 Nov: USD 14.29, GBP 11.15 & EUR 12.61 per ounce
15 Nov: USD 14.13, GBP 11.02 & EUR 12.49 per ounce
14 Nov: USD 13.97, GBP 10.80 & EUR 12.39 per ounce
13 Nov: USD 14.02, GBP 10.85 & EUR 12.46 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– Stocks are Now in ‘Complete Bitcoin Territory,’ Asset Manager Says
– Brexit’s Safe Haven Is a Dangerous Place
– Gold and Silver Rise As Stocks Fall On Valuation Concerns, Italy and Brexit Risks
– Pound Falls 2.5% Against Gold as UK Government in Turmoil Over Brexit
– GoldCore Capitalising On Brexit With Dublin Gold Vault
– Store Gold In The Safest Vaults In Ireland
– Investors Set To Store Gold In Dublin Due To Brexit Risks
– Investors Start Buying Gold ETFs In October In Bullish Shift
– As Brexit Looms and Stocks Plunge In October – Now May Be The Time to Invest in Gold
– AMERICAN ELECTIONS FARCE AS POLITICIANS IGNORE THE LOOMING $121.7 TRILLION DEBT CRISIS
– Gold ETFs See Strong Demand In Volatile October After Robust Global Gold Demand In Q3

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director
 
 

NOV 21

ii) GATA stories
Investigators are now probing whether there was criminal activity in last year’s rise in both Bitcoin and Ether
(courtesy Bloomberg/GATA)

Bitcoin-rigging criminal probe focused on tie to Tether

 Section: 

By Matt Robinson and Tom Schoenberg
Bloomberg News
Tuesday, November 20, 2018

As Bitcoin plunges, the U.S. Justice Department is investigating whether last year’s epic rally was fueled in part by manipulation, with traders driving it up with Tether — a popular but controversial digital token.

While federal prosecutors opened a broad criminal probe into cryptocurrencies months ago, they have recently homed in on suspicions that a tangled web involving Bitcoin, Tether, and crypto exchange Bitfinex might have been used to illegally move prices, said three people familiar with the matter. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-20/bitcoin-rigging-crimi…

end

Bart Chilton on Russia Today is hosting a broadcast on the economy.  He had Schiff on and here the former CFTC commissioner found much evidence of silver rigging even though he stated that there was not enough to prosecute.  However two weeks ago a JPMorgan trader confessed to rigging the gold and silver markets and that he was taught by his superiors.

There is going to be big news coming from future broadcasts  from Bart Chilton and guests..stay tune.d

(courtesy GATA/Boom or Bust/Bart Chilton)

 

Chilton says CFTC found much evidence of silver

rigging; Schiff calls rigging’rumor’

 Section: 

11:03a ET Tuesday, November 20, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Bart Chilton, the former member of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission who pushed his agency to hold in a March 2010 public hearing that addressed manipulation of the monetary metals markets and called GATA leaders as witnesses, this year has been hosting Russia Today’s daily “Boom/Bust” program, and last Thursday he interviewed fund manager and gold advocate Peter Schiff about market manipulation.

On the program Chilton revealed that during his service on the CFTC the commission found “all sorts of evidence of attempted manipulation and manipulation” of the silver market “but not enough to actually prosecute.”

Of course two weeks ago a former JPMorganChase trader confessed in federal court to manipulating the silver market with the knowledge of his superiors even while the CFTC was investigating:

http://www.gata.org/node/18596

In his comments to Chilton, Schiff remained dismissive of what he called “rumors” of manipulation of the monetary metals markets, while acknowledging that “some of the rumors are probably true.” Manipulation, Schiff argued, is not the big reason for the poor performance of the monetary metals in recent years. Rather, Schiff said, investors are just too stupid to understand what is going on in the world financial system — not that Schiff himself ever has done much to help them understand how governments long have been intervening in the monetary metals markets to support their currencies and bond prices.

Last Thursday’s edition of “Boom/Bust” is can be viewed at Russia Today here —

https://www.rt.com/shows/boom-bust/444025-amazon-gold-prices-plane/

— and the interview with Schiff is four minutes long, extending from the 5:44 to 9:48 marks.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

Today is the day whereby the LBMA is suppose to be transparent.  It is not as big as thought

(courtesy Bloomberg/GATA)

London gold market comes clean: It’s not as big as

thought

 Section: 

By Eddie van der Walt, Rupert Rowling, and Anna Edwards
Bloomberg News
Tuesday, November 20, 2108

London’s gold market owned up to the biggest secret in bullion: It’s not as big as some thought and, for last week at least, smaller than New York’s.

An average of $36.9 billion of gold and $5.2 billion of silver changed hands each day in the city’s over-the-counter market, including metal for delivery in Zurich, according to figures released for the first time today by the London Bullion Market Association. Previous World Gold Council estimates, based on 2016 data, were between three and six times higher. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-20/london-gold-market-co…

end

Craig comments on the LBMA “transparency”

(courtesy Craig Hemke/GATA)

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: Another great

oxymoron — LBMA ‘transparency’

 Section: 

8:38p ET Tuesday, November 20, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

London gold market data published today by the London Bullion Market Association, the TF Metal Report’s Craig Hemke writes at Sprott Money, demonstrates what a fraud the market is, as it purports to trade every day more than a third of the world’s annual gold production and 42 percent of annual silver production.

Hemke writes: “The prices of gold and silver are currently determined by the trading of digital derivatives, which have next-to-zero connection to the physical metal. The price that is discovered is the price of the digital derivative itself and not the physical commodity. And the supply of the digital derivative is nearly endless, as the banks have a monopolistic ability to create a nearly infinite amount.”

Being so fraudulent, Hemke writes, the system inevitably will collapse, and those who thought they had gold in it will find they have none.

Hemke’s analysis is headlined “Another Great Oxymoron: LBMA ‘Transparency'” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/another-great-oxymoron-lbma-transparenc…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org




iii) Other Physical stories
I guess they are getting a little scared about this!! The USA prosecutors are asking for a delay in a civil suit after JPMorgan after Edmonds confesses to manipulating gold and silver with the help of his superiors!! . This will not have an effect on the Deutsche bank civil case.
(courtesy Dolmetsch)

JPMorgan Metals Probe Spurs U.S. to Ask for Delay in Civil Suit

By Chris Dolmetsch

November 20, 2018, 6:41 PM EST

Prosecutors ask for temporary halt to trader’s antitrust case

U.S. says aim is to protect ‘integrity’ of its investigation

The Justice Department’s investigation of manipulation in the precious-metals markets at JPMorgan Chase & Co. spurred prosecutors to ask a judge to delay a civil lawsuit focusing on similar misconduct.

Former trader John Edmonds pleaded guilty last month to federal charges that he placed hundreds of orders in the futures market he never intended to execute, in a six-year spoofing scheme. On Monday, the Justice Department asked the judge overseeing an antitrust lawsuit against JPMorgan to delay the case for six months to “protect the integrity” of its ongoing criminal probe.

JPMorgan didn’t immediately respond to an email seeking comment.

The request signals that the government is aggressively moving ahead with its inquiry. The charges are part of a broad U.S. crackdown on techniques such as spoofing, a trading practice designed to create fake demand that pushes prices up or down to generate profits. Long considered disreputable but rarely dangerous, spoofing has emerged in an era of computerized trading as a deeper threat to markets.

In his plea to conspiracy and commodities fraud in federal court in Connecticut, Edmonds admitted that he and other traders sought to manipulate futures markets for gold, silver, platinum and palladium on the Nymex and Comex exchanges, prosecutors said.

The Justice Department request for a delay came after lawyers for the plaintiffs in the civil antitrust suit asked a judge to allow them to re-interview Edmonds’s immediate supervisors, saying their testimony will “demonstrate a pattern and practice of intimidation” consistent with the view that JPMorgan created barriers to entry in the “thinly traded” market.

The case is U.S. v. Edmonds, 18-cr-239, U.S. District Court, District of Connecticut (Hartford).

-END-

Manly contends and he is probably correct that the gold/silver trading is predominately unallocated plus fractionally backed synthetic  (unallocated) and very little physical gold and silver.

(courtesy Ronan Manly)

GATA) Ronan Manly: LBMA ‘trading data’ is empty, suggests removal of central bank activity

Submitted by cpowell on 03:24PM ET Wednesday, November 21, 2018. Section: Daily Dispatches

10:23a ET Wednesday, November 21, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Indispensable gold market analyst Ronan Manly, writing for Bullion Star today, writes that the London Bullion Market’s new trading data report contains no trading data at all but does contain an anomaly suggesting that central bank trading has been erased from the data.

Manly writes: “While the LBMA’s new data is very high- level and aggregated and does not do anything to lift the veil of secrecy lying over these markets, the magnitude of the trade volumes does prove what has been widely believed: that the over-the-counter gold and silver markets operating mainly out of London by mainly LBMA bullion banks are trading predominantly unallocated and fractionally-backed synthetic positions on gold and silver and a lot less in the way of physical gold and silver.”

Manly’s analysis is headlined “LBMA Trading Volume Data Confirms the Paper Gold Casino in London” and it’s posted at Bullion Star here:

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/lbma- trading-volume-data-c..

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer/gata

end

Here are a few things which could precipitate the next crisis

(courtesy James Rickards/Daily Reckoning)

Rickards: Multiple Risks Are Converging On Markets

Authored by James Rickards via The Daily Reckoning,

One of the questions I am asked most frequently in my global travels is what will be the cause of the next financial crisis. This question is asked by those who understand that this crisis is coming but want to pin down the date or a specific turn of events that will help them know when to react.

My answer is always the same: We can be certain the crisis is coming and can estimate its magnitude, but no one knows exactly when it will happen or what the specific catalyst will be.

The second part of my answer is to prepare for the crisis now. When it happens, it could unfold very quickly. If you’ve been paying attention to the stock market lately, you know how quickly selling fever can spread once it starts. Just look at these past two days alone.

We’ve had multiple days since October when the Dow loses several hundred points, with the other major indexes posting similar losses on a percentage basis.

There may not be time or opportunity in the middle of the crisis to take defensive measures. That’s why I keep reminding my readers thatthe time to prepare by increasing allocations to cash and gold is now.

With that said, it is useful to consider the most likely flash points for the next crisis and to monitor events as a way to improve one’s chances of seeing a crisis at the early stages.

In yesterday’s Daily Reckoning, I made the case that the next crisis could begin in the junk bond market. But there are a number of other possibilities.

You recall that the financial panic of 2008 actually started in 2007 with massive loan losses in subprime mortgages. Those losses caused certain hedge funds and money market funds to close their doors. Investors scrambled for liquidity to cover their mortgage loan losses. This led them to sell equities, bonds and gold to raise cash to meet margin calls.

The panic was subdued in late 2007 but came back to life in 2008 with the collapse of Bear Stearns, Lehman Bros., AIG and others. The Fed and Treasury intervened to provide guarantees and liquidity, but not before everyday investors saw half their net worth wiped out. The crisis was not confined to the U.S., but spread worldwide to Europe, China and Japan.

Now a new loan loss crisis is unfolding. The new crisis is not in mortgages but in student loans.

Total student loans today at $1.6 trillion are larger than the amount of junk mortgages in late 2007 of about $1.0 trillion. Default rates on student loans are already higher than mortgage default rates in 2007. This time the loan losses are falling not on the banks and hedge funds but on the Treasury itself because of government guarantees.

Not only are student loan defaults soaring, but household debt has hit another all-time high. Student loans and household debt are just the tip of the debt iceberg that also includes junk bonds (again, as I explained yesterday), corporate debt and even sovereign debt, all at or near record highs around the world.

Meanwhile, the trade war remains a great risk to markets.

When the trade wars erupted in early 2018 I said that the trade wars would be long-lasting and difficult to resolve and would have significant negative economic impacts.

Wall Street took the opposite view and estimated that the trade war threats were mostly for show, the impact would be minimal and that Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping would resolve their differences quickly. As usual, Wall Street was wrong.

Trump’s top trade adviser Peter Navarro recently delivered a speech making it clear the trade wars will not be resolved soon. He also tells Wall Street to “get out” of the policy process.

He said, “If there is a deal, if and when there is a deal, it will be on President Donald J. Trump’s terms, not Wall Street terms.”

Navarro warns that prominent Americans such as Hank Paulson, former secretary of the Treasury, and Blackstone chief Stephen Schwarzman may be acting as “unregistered foreign agents” as a result of their lobbying activities on behalf of China.

This could subject these principals to criminal prosecution. Investors should expect lower earnings per share from Apple, Sony and entertainment companies dependent on the Chinese market or Chinese manufacturing to make their profits.

Companies such as Caterpillar are also caught in the crossfire. Get ready for a long and costly trade war. It has already started and won’t be over soon.

But I’ve been warning for months about an even more disturbing possibility: that currency wars and trade wars can easily spill over into shooting wars. This happened in the 1930s and it seems to be happening again.

One of the most dangerous hot spots in the world today is the South China Sea. There are six countries with recognized claims to parts of the South China Sea. Yet China itself claims the entire sea except for small coastal strips and claims all of the oil, natural gas and fish that can be taken from the sea.

China has ignored international tribunal rulings against it. The U.S. is backing up the other national claims including those of the Philippines, which is a treaty ally of the U.S. China has built small reefs into large artificial islands with airstrips and sea bases to support its claims.

The U.S. has increased naval vessels in the area to enforce rights of passage and the equitable sharing of resources. Both sides are escalating and the risk of a shooting war or even an accident at sea is increasing. The South China Sea is mostly out of the headlines at the moment, but it bears watching as a possible catalyst for the next international crisis with global financial implications.

We should look for slower growth and possibly a recession as the trade and currency wars play out. Let’s hope that history does not repeat and that we don’t end up in a Third World War, as the currency/trade wars of the 1930s helped lead to WWII.

Warnings of economic collapse are no longer confined to the fringes of economic analysis but are now coming from major financial institutions and prominent economists, academics and wealth managers. Leading financial elites have been warning of coming collapses and dangers.

These warnings range from the IMF’s Christine Lagarde, Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio, the Bank for International Settlements (known as the “central banker’s central bank”) and many other highly regarded sources.

Just when we think we’ve seen enough of these, another one arrives. This time it’s the legendary Paul Tudor Jones, who manages Tudor Investment.

I’ve met Jones; he’s a cerebral yet polite and mild-mannered manager from Tennessee who has not lost his Southern accent despite decades in Connecticut and an estate on Maryland’s Eastern Shore.

What gives Jones’ voice added authority is his longevity in the fund investment world. He’s managed through the 1987 stock crash, the 1994 Mexican crisis, the 1998 Long Term Capital meltdown, the 2000 dot-com crash and, of course, the 2008 financial panic.

Jones knows that panics happen, but he also knows they don’t happen all the time. Panics take years to build and usually have specific triggers (even though endpoints can spin wildly out of control).

Jones does not treat the possibility of a financial crisis lightly, so his warning deserves close consideration.

Jones warns that the next crisis is likely to be triggered by excessive debt, specifically corporate debt, which can be more difficult to manage or bail out than sovereign debt.

At the same time, other gurus are warning that the next panic will emerge from the foreign exchange market, overvalued equities or commercial real estate. Perhaps the real message is that all of these areas are vulnerable and the next crisis will seem to come from everywhere at once.

That’s the danger. We’re looking at another debt crisis and global financial panic. Only this time it won’t come from mortgages alone but from all directions at once.

So let me repeat what I said earlier: the time to prepare by increasing allocations to cash and gold is now.

__________________________________________

 

 

 

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP TO 6.9370/HUGE DEVALUATION FOR THE PAST FOUR WEEKS RESUMES/CHINESE COMING TO USA FOR TRADE TALKS IN NOVEMBER NOW ON //OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.9323   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 5.65 POINTS OR 0.21%

. HANG SANG CLOSED UP 131.13 POINTS OR 0.51%

 

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 75.58 POINTS OR 0.35%

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN

 

 

 

 

/USA dollar index RISES TO 96.37/Euro FALLS TO 1.1420

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. +.10/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 112.35/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 54.27 and Brent: 63.63

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen down/ CHINESE YUAN:   ON SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.37%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 3.59% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.62%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 3.14: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 4.65

3k Gold at $1223.55 silver at:14.43   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 26/100 in roubles/dollar) 65.93

3m oil into the 54 dollar handle for WTI and 63 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 113.03DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9942 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1336 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to +0.35%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 3.08% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.33%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.3458

Futures Jump, Dollar Slides After Report Fed May End

Hikes As Early As Spring

After yesterday’s historic rout in the market, there were signs of stabilization in overnight trading with most markets trading higher, with the key catalyst a report from MNI that the Fed may end its rate hikes as soon as this coming spring.

US stocks were set to open sharply firmer after two days of losses that wiped out the S&P500’s gains for the year and left the tech-heavy Nasdaq index teetering on the brink of falling into the red. Losses were concentrated in the technology sector, as investors dumped their holdings of FAANG shares and pushed the Nasdaq index to seven-month lows and energy shares too had dropped in line with a 6 percent oil price slump S&P 500.

“High-flying momentum stocks have come off in a fairly spectacular fashion. At one point Apple and Amazon accounted for 40 percent of U.S. equity gains and people were just recycling money into the winners,” said David Vickers, senior portfolio manager at Russell Investments. “That’s come off the boil and set the cat among the pigeons… We’ve seen a lot of reflexivity, when selling begets selling, the market starts to turn over, people take profits, it leads to another leg down and so on.”

That fed through to Asia on Wednesday, taking MSCI’s index of ex-Japan Asia-Pacific shares almost half a percent lower, but it clawed most of the losses to trade flat, with MSCI’s all-country benchmark was flat too, attempting to snap two days of falls.

Chinese stocks closed in the green and near session highs, rebounding from Tuesday’s drop as Asia closed mixed, but it was Europe that showed the most promise with the Stoxx600 solidly in the green, led by Italy where BTPs rallied from the open, after a report that Deputy PM Salvini may be open to budget revisions; Salvini then denied the report, clarifying that he’s only open to tweaks and won’t compromise on the main issues.

Italians bond yields fell up to 16 basis points initially, putting 10-year yields on track for their biggest daily drop in almost a month but the market gave up some of its gains after the denials. Sentiment was then dented again, and the EUR snapped lower after Ansa reported that the European Union has rejected Italy’s 2019 budget – as expected – and that the Excessive Deficit Procedure would be warranted on Italy. Still, despite the expected escalation in the standoff between Italy and Europe, the Estoxx and DAX pushed higher but were off best levels with banks and telecoms leading gains as Italy’s FTSE MIB outperformed peers with local banks +1.5%.

However, it was a report from wire service MNI just after 6am that caught the market’s attention, when Market News International reported that the Federal Reserve is starting to consider at least a pause to its gradual monetary tightening and could end its cycle of interest rate hikes as early as the spring, citing senior people at the Fed they didn’t identify.

While a Dec. rate hike is all but assured, the debate will become more lively beginning at the central bank’s March meeting and certainly by June, MNI says. The paradox, of course, is that according to the Fed’s own dot plot there will be at least 3 hikes in 2019, so for one or more Fed presidents to engage in such an ECB-esque trial balloon of defiance of Chairman Powell must mean that the disagreements within the FOMC over the future of monetary policy are truly boiling over.

While it is still very much unlikely that the Fed will halt its rate hikes in the spring absent a rout in stocks and bonds, the MNI trial balloon sent futures back to session highs…

… and slammed the Bloomberg dollar index back to session lows.

US Treasuries and the Eurodollar strip also pared losses and faded Wednesday’s bear steepening after the MNI report; that said, Fed rate hike expectations are steady on Wednesday morning with December 2018 pricing in 19bps, and the next 25bps increase expected in March 2019. The U.S. 10Y TSY yield is 1bp to 3.07% with December T-Note futures -20 ticks to 119-04+; U.S. 2/10s +1bp to 26bps; U.S. 5/30s steady at 43bps.

Today’s modest gains immediately sparked positive commentary: “We view the sell-off as overdone and a bull-market correction, with valuations that have become more compelling,” Jason Draho, head of asset allocation, Americas, at UBS Global Wealth Management wrote in a note. “We recently increased our overweight to global equities on the view that the markets are already pricing in growth and trade risks.”

Still, while the Fed trial balloon helped preserve upside momentum in risk assets, investor sentiment remains susceptible to minute to minute volatility that’s rocked markets since October as traders have to contend with President Trump tape bomb unpredictability and demands for lower rates as corporate credit spreads at two-year highs reflect investor angst about borrowing costs.

In FX, the euro got an early boost and Italian bonds rallied after the abovementioned La Stampa report that Italy’s Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini may be open to budget revisions; it trimmed gains after his League party denied the report, and as the EU was said see Rome’s budget at serious non-compliance risk. The pound was little changed against the dollar, after earlier rising on the back of broader weakness in the greenback; Britain’s budget deficit widened in October as spending rose at the fastest pace in 11 years. Australian dollar rebounds from a one-week low hit very early in Asia as a recovery in oil prices combined with exporter demand to trigger short-covering ahead of U.S. Thanksgiving holiday.

In commodities, WTI also halted yesterday’s dramatic rout near $54 a barrel after API showed that U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly fell last week against doubts over OPEC’s plans to cut output. Emerging-market shares and currencies were stable. Bitcoin advanced after a recent sell-off

Expected data include mortgage applications, durable goods orders, jobless claims and existing home sales. Deere and Metro are among companies reporting earnings

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.5% to 2,653.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.5% to 352.66
  • MXAP down 0.4% to 149.96
  • MXAPJ down 0.1% to 480.09
  • Nikkei down 0.4% to 21,507.54
  • Topix down 0.6% to 1,615.89
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.5% to 25,971.47
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 2,651.51
  • Sensex down 0.7% to 35,212.54
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.5% to 5,642.77
  • Kospi down 0.3% to 2,076.55
  • German 10Y yield rose 1.6 bps to 0.366%
  • Euro up 0.1% to $1.1381
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 1.8 bps to 3.241%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 0.9 bps to 1.638%
  • Brent futures up 1.8% to $63.63/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,224.29
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.1% to 96.77

Top Overnight News

  • German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned the U.K. it can’t set unilateral terms for leaving the European Union as Prime Minister Theresa May heads to Brussels to try to complete a contentious Brexit deal
  • The Brexit divorce deal can’t be improved, and EU governments have made that clear, said Northern Ireland Secretary Karen Bradley
  • Saudi Arabian oil production surged to a record near 11 million barrels a day this month after the kingdom received stronger-than-usual demand from clients preparing for a disruption in Iranian supplies, according to industry executives who track Saudi output
  • Oil at one point slumped more than 7 percent in London and New York on Tuesday. The selloff — just like the previous Tuesday — was exacerbated by banks selling futures to rebalance their positions as prices fell, said people active in the market who are familiar with the matter
  • OPEC’s bad dream only deepens next year, when Permian producers expect to iron out distribution snags that will add three pipelines and as much as 2 million barrels of oil a day
  • The U.S. on Tuesday accused China of continuing a state-backed campaign of intellectual property and technology theft even as the world’s two largest economies have descended into a tit-for-tat tariff war

Asian stocks mostly weakened as the global stock rout continued into the region following the losses in US, where the DJIA dropped over 500 points to turn negative YTD and in which energy names were pressured as oil slumped nearly 7%. ASX 200 (-0.5%) and Nikkei 225 (-0.3%) were led lower by spill-over selling seen across the commodity-related sectors, while Wesfarmers shares plummeted nearly 30% after the spin-off of its Coles unit which had its stock market debut today. Hang Seng (+0.5%) and Shanghai Comp. (+0.2%) opened with firm losses but then rebounded off their lows with price action choppy amid ongoing trade uncertainty and after criticism from USTR Lighthizer’s report that China has not altered its unfair practices and appears to have conducted further unreasonable actions in recent months. Finally, 10yr JGBs failed to benefit from the widespread risk averse tone with price action subdued amid a lack of BoJ presence in the bond market and after the weakness in T-notes as US investors closed positions heading in to Thanksgiving.

Top Asian News

  • The American Carnage Isn’t Tanking Stock Markets in Asia
  • China Refrains From Injecting Cash for Longest Time Since August
  • Beijing to Judge Every Resident Based on Behavior by End of 2020
  • China Said to Eye Steel Mega-Deal as Baowu Chief Joins Rival
  • Yuan Debt in the Bag for Philippines as Xi-Duterte Ties Grow

European equities are higher across the board (Eurostoxx 50 +0.8%) as the region stemmed the stock rout seen in Asia and Wall Street. Italy’s FTSE MIB (+0.6%) was initially outperforming with Italian banks higher amid initial reports from Italian press that Deputy PM Salvini could potentially be open to budget revisions, which were later dismissed by League sources ahead of the budget ultimately being rejected. In terms of sectors, financial names lost the top spot to telecom names, who are outperforming after French telecoms jumped following comments from Orange (+1.7%) CEO which renewed M&A gossip. Elsewhere, Indivior (-13.6%) fell to the foot of the Stoxx600 (+0.4%) after the Co. lost a US court ruling that had prevented Dr. Reddy’s from selling a generic version of a treatment for opioid addiction.

Top European News

  • Merkel Warns U.K. It Can’t Dictate Brexit Terms for EU Summit
  • Rudd Says Parliament Would Block No Deal: Brexit Update
  • Laundromat Whistle-Blower Testifies in Brussels: Danske Update
  • Nyrstar Wins Lifeline From Trafigura With $650 Million Deal
  • Airbus Names New CFO, COO to Replace Wave of Exiting Execs

In FX, the DXY index has maintained its recovery momentum into the midweek session, but is off best levels amidst a welcome reprieve in riskier assets and broad sentiment ahead of Thanksgiving. The DXY has drifted back from another uptick towards 97.000, though remains underpinned ahead of 96.500 and recent lows. The Greenback also retains an underlying bid as G10 and EM counterparts struggle to recoup losses beyond round number/psychological/technical resistance against the backdrop of heavy option expiries at strikes within close proximity to prevailing prices (and with major fundamental issues still prescient of course).

  • EUR/CAD – The single currency is holding up relatively well given more toing and froing on the Italian budget, but ultimately ongoing recalcitrant stance from Rome after reports about potential revisions were renounced in advance of the EU’s official rejection and potential if not probable EDP implementation (scheduled release time 11.00GMT, but appears to have been preannounced). However, 1.1400 is proving almost as obstinate and a decent 1 bn option expiry could well be keeping the headline pair in check. Meanwhile, the Loonie is off worst levels after sliding through 1.3300 and could be gleaning some encouragement from a partial recovery in oil prices in the run up to Canadian wholesale trade data.
  • GBP/CHF/JPY – All bucking the overall trend, albeit barely in terms of the Pound and Franc, as Cable pivots 1.2800 and Eur/Gbp straddles 0.8900 on Parliament approval aspirations as UK PM May heads to Brussels for more discussions on the Brexit draft and the coup to oust her seems to have fizzled out. Meanwhile, Usd/Chf has only tentatively bounced from near 0.9900 lows within a 0.9935-55 range vs Usd/Jpy back on the 113.00 handle vs a base around 112.30 at one stage on Tuesday when risk-off flows were rife, but bidding interest prevented further downside. Note, a raft of option expiries could be key into the NY cut, stretching from 111.90-112.00 to 114.00 and totalling some 11 bn.
  • EM – Rand in focus for several reasons, as Usd/Zar hovers near 14.0000 ahead of Thursday’s SARP policy meeting and following softer than expected SA inflation data, with a decent 1.1+ bn options expiring between 13.9000-14.0000 along with speculation about more strike action.

In commodities, WTI (+1.6%) and Brent (+1.4%) took a breather from yesterday’s selloff, where prices fell almost 7% with the decline attributed to supply concerns, negative risk sentiment and Trump’s protective approach to Saudi relations. Prices are underpinned by the latest API inventory data which printed a surprise drawdown in headline crude stockpiles. Traders will be keeping an eye on today’s DoE release for any hints of increased US shale production. Today will also see the release of the EIA natural gas storage data, which has been rescheduled due to the US Thanksgiving Holiday. Elsewhere, the metals complex is in positive territory with gold (+0.2%), silver (+0.7%) and copper (+0.5%) all supported by the pullback in the USD. Goldman Sachs said slump in oil reflects over supply concerns for 2019 and that technical position factors have exacerbated the volatility, while it also cited low liquidity heading into Thanksgiving as well as broader selling in commodities and cross-assets amid rising growth concerns.

In terms of the day ahead, we’re due to get a first look at October durable and capital goods orders data along with the latest weekly initial jobless claims data, October leading index, October existing home sales and final November University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey revisions. Away from that, Italy’s Finance Minister Tria is due face questions in the Lower House and as highlighted earlier, today is the day that the European Commission is due to publish opinions on the budget plans of Euro Area countries, including possibly Italy.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: U.S. Durable Goods Orders, Oct. P, est. -2.6%, prior 0.7%; Durable Goods Orders Less Transportation, Oct. P, est. 0.4%, prior 0.0%
  • 8:30am: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, Nov. 17, est. 215k, prior 216k; Continuing Claims, Nov. 10, est. 1650k, prior 1676k
  • 10am: U.S. U. of Mich. Sentiment, Nov. F, est. 98.3, prior 98.3

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I suspect they’ll be a lot of market participants in the US relieved that they only have to make it through today to get to Thanksgiving. I suspect they’ll also be a lot of market participants outside of the US relieved that the US market won’t be open tomorrow and we’ll have a circuit breaker for now and a chance to take stock after a very difficult few days.

The sell-off baton has been passed from asset class to asset class of late and yesterday it was oil’s turn to pick it back up again with Brent and WTI crude shedding -6.69% and -6.84% respectively taking losses close to -30% in only around 7 weeks from its 4-year highs. A remarkable run. These moves dominated price action across other markets, with the energy sector (-3.29%) leading US equity declines and inflation breakevens trending lower. US 10-year TIPS-implied breakeven inflation rates are now down to 1.98%, taking their year-to-date change into negative territory for the first time. Somewhat worryingly, there are signs that the oil drop is a negative demand story, rather than a positive supply shock. Oil-importing countries, who would theoretically see an improvement in their terms-of-trade, did not see their currencies gain, e.g. the Turkish Lira the worst performer of the day, falling -1.37%.

There didn’t appear to be one particular event which triggered the oil move although our commodity strategy team did note that recent commentary is foreshadowing possible disappointments at the OPEC meeting on December 6th. They believe that Libya and Russia are unlikely to support a renewed push from Saudi Arabia for discipline and therefore fear an underwhelming meeting outcome. Anyway that weakness for oil did spread to the US HY energy sector which widened +13bps, meaning it is now 169bps wide of the October and YTD tights.

As for equities, well the NASDAQ closed down -1.70% but was as much as -2.81% lower at one stage, while the S&P 500 and DOW closed down -1.82% and -2.21% respectively – both marginally off their lows. The NYSE FANG index also recovered to finish -1.55% from its intraday low of -4.48%, though Apple did fall another -4.78% meaning it’s now -23.74 % off the October peaks and therefore in the definition of a bear market amid concerns over demand for products. That move is also equivalent to a loss of value of $265bn, or roughly the annual GDP of Bangladesh a country with 165 million people. Meanwhile, the VIX touched 23.81 intraday yesterday (highest since October 31st) before closing at 22.48. Apart from the oil sector, which led losses, consumer discretionary also fell -2.18% after profit outlooks for the likes of Target (-10.53%), TJX (-4.39%) and Kohl’s (-9.24%) all disappointed ahead of the busy holiday shopping period.

Back to credit, cash spreads for Euro IG and HY finished +4bps and +13bps wider yesterday while in the US, spreads outperformed a bit but were still +2bps and +7bps wider respectively. It’s worth noting that this is now the eighth day in a row that Euro HY spreads have widened, for a cumulative move of +72bps. In fairness, spreads moved wider eight days in a row back in September, but the total size of that widening was a rather mild +17bps. In May, they actually widened for 10 days in a row when BTP yields were soaring, however the size of that move was +59bps so the current run really stands out. In fact, the biggest eight-day move in recent years came during January 2016, when spreads blew out +79bps amid similar conditions to today: plummeting oil prices.

Considering the sizeable risk-off that we’re seeing at the moment we’re hardly witnessing the flock to safe haven assets that one might expect. Treasury yields were only down -0.7bps yesterday while Bunds rallied -2.2bps and the USD index gained +0.67%. Gold and the Japanese yen both actually sold off -0.17% and -0.14%, respectively, and both have traded in a fairly benign +/-3% range for November to date.

This morning in Asia, sentiment continues to be remain negative but markets have rallied off the opening lows where the likes of the Nikkei began trading down around -1.5%. As we type this has recovered to -0.32%. Elsewhere the same pattern has emerged with the Hang Seng (-0.10%), Shanghai Comp (-0.13%) and Kospi (-0.51%) all down but off their session lows. Oil has bounced a bit from yesterday and is up +1.75% as we go to print. S&P 500 futures (+0.37%) are also pointing towards a slight improvement in market mood.

Sentiment remains nervous though and not helped by the overnight release of a report on China from the US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer’s office which accuses China of continuing a state-backed campaign of intellectual property and technology theft. The report said, “China fundamentally has not altered its acts, policies, and practices related to technology transfer, intellectual property, and innovation, and indeed appears to have taken further unreasonable actions in recent months.” This ramp up in rhetoric just 10 days ahead of the upcoming G20 meeting overshadowed earlier comments from the White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow about President Trump injecting “a note of optimism” into trade talks with China.

Back to more selling off markets from yesterday now. BTP yields spiked to an intraday high of 3.714% yesterday (+12bps) and the highest since last month before paring much of that to finish at 3.617%. That wild ride for BTPs comes prior to the European Commission today opining on the budget plans of the Euro Area nations. For Italy, under EU fiscal rules the European Commission had three weeks to issue an opinion on Italy from November 13th – when Italy left unchanged its 2019 draft budget plan. The suggestion however is that the Commission will opine on Italy at the same time as other Euro Area nations so we’re likely to hear today. Assuming the Commission pushes ahead with launching an EDP, the process involves the Commission informing the Eurogroup first. The next meeting of the Eurogroup is December 3rd so it’s possible that the process gets aggressively accelerated to meet that deadline.

Our economists have previously highlighted that the decision to launch an EDP remains a political one – the Commission proposes the action but the Eurogroup has the option to overrule. However, it could be difficult to reverse the decision of the Commission. The Eurogroup votes on a double majority of countries representing 65% of the population (the country under procedure does not vote). As long as Germany and France support an EDP, the remaining countries do not have enough weight in the qualified majority vote to overturn the decision. Anyway expect the BTP market to be focused on this today.

The Brexit front was relatively quiet again, though the DUP did abstain again on a procedural vote on the UK budget, forcing the Conservatives to accept several amendments from Labour in order to secure enough votes. The DUP are effectively on strike until they get things more their way on the Irish border thus making the running of government very challenging. Separately, BoE  Governor Carney and Chief Economist Haldane testified to Parliament’s Treasury Committee and said they welcome the negotiated Withdrawal Agreement. Haldane noted that uncertainty may be weighing on business investment and could negatively impact fourth quarter economic growth, while Carney said that the risk of a no-deal Brexit outcome is “uncomfortably high.” The BoE policymakers plan to send new Brexit analysis to the Committee next week on November 29. Elsewhere, UK PM May is all set to travel to meet the EC President Juncker this evening in an effort to make progress on an outline of the future trade deal the two sides want to strike. She is likely to ask for further concessions from the EU given the backlash she is facing at home from euroskeptic Tories. However, it seems unlikely that the EU will give further headroom to the UK PM ahead of the upcoming Sunday summit where the two are expected to sign off on the 585-page exit agreement as well as the future partnership paper.

On the data front yesterday, US housing starts and building permits mostly met expectations. New starts came in at 1.23 million, up 1.5% mom but down over the last 12 months, while building permits were at 1.126 million, down -0.6% mom and also down over the last year. In Europe, French unemployment stayed at 9.1%, marginally better than consensus expectations which had called for a rate of 9.2%. German PPI inflation printed at 3.3% yoy as expected.

In terms of the day ahead, this morning we’ll get October public finances data in the UK along with the OECD’s latest economic forecasts. Across the pond this afternoon we’re due to get a first look at October durable and capital goods orders data along with the latest weekly initial jobless claims data, October leading index, October existing home sales and final November University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey revisions. Away from that, Italy’s Finance Minister Tria is due face questions in the Lower House and as highlighted earlier, today is the day that the European Commission is due to publish opinions on the budget plans of Euro Area countries, including possibly Italy.

 

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 5.65 POINTS OR 0.21% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 131.13 POINTS OR 0.51% //The Nikkei closed DOWN 75.58 OR 0/35%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.51%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.9370 AS POBC RESUMES  ITS HUGE DEVALUATION  /DELEGATION COMING TO THE USA TO SEE TRUMP IN NOVEMBER /Oil DOWN to 54.27 dollars per barrel for WTI and 63.63 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN//.  ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.9370AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9323: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING  WEAKER  AGAINST OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

North Korea/South Korea/USA/China

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

END

3 C CHINA

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

Italy

Conditions getting hotter inside Italy and the EU.  The EU formally reject Italy’s budget which paves the way for sanctions.  This will probably be the out that Italy needs to vacate the Euro

(courtesy zerohedge)

In Unprecedented Clash, EU Rejects Italy’s Budget, Paves Way For Sanctions

Yields on Italian government bonds fell on Wednesday morning as the euro climbed following reports that Italy’s ruling coalition might be open to reviewing its budget plan. Though the Italian government swiftly denied the reports about being open to changes in its plan, the moves in the euro and yields persisted, as analysts said they didn’t appear to be news driven.

The spread between the 10-year BTP and 10-year German bund tightened to tightening as much as 16 basis points to 309 basis points.

Italy

Italy

Italian bank shares also eased off their highs of the session after the denials, but remained 2% higher on the day after sinking to two-year lows on Tuesday.

And in the most significant sign yet that the confrontation between Italy and Europe is heading toward the point of no return, the European Union confirmed Wednesday morning that it would officially reject Italy’s budget plan, an unprecedented move that will likely lead to billions of euros in fines being levied against Rome for violating the bloc’s budget rules. Furthermore, the EC said it would call for the opening of an Excessive Debt Proceeding against the Italian government, which could lead to billions of euros in fines.

In its draft budget, the Italian government called for an expansion of the country’s budget deficit to 2.4% of GDP to finance tax cuts, expanded pension benefits and other handouts to unemployed and desperate Italians.

“Our analysis today suggests that the debt doesn’t respect our budget rules. We conclude that opening a proceeding against excessive spending based n the debt is then justified,” the EU said, according to ANSA.

But EU bureaucrats have long maintained that this expansion will do nothing to boost stagnant Italian growth; instead, it will hurt Italians by inevitably leading to more austerity. The Italian plan represents a “particularly grave disrespect” of EU budget rules, particularly the recommendation from the meeting of EU ecofin ministers last July 13. The statement confirms Brussels’ previous analysis.

Italy

European Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis said Italy’s aggressive spending would eventually have a negative impact on growth.

“Despite already having very high debt, Italy is essentially planning significant additional spending, instead of the necessary budgetary prudence, and I want to say that the impact of this maneuver on growth will probably be negative from our point of view,” Dombrovskis said.

Following its opining on the plan, the Commission revealed that it would be calling for an Excessive Debt Procedure against the Italians because their spending for 2019 didn’t comply with EU rules. However, this plan must be put to the Eurogroup (which next meets Dec. 3), which must decide whether to approve the proceedings before they can move forward, as CNBC explained. If Italy doesn’t change course, the Commission said it would push to fine the Italian government.

EDP

“There are doubts and questions about growth” forecast in the Italian plan and, despite the clarifications requested, these persist,” said EU Commissioner for economic affairs Pierre Moscovici. We have no answers to these questions: where does this growth come from nor who will pay the bill,” apart from how the plan will increase the “risks to Italian citizens, banks and businesses” by increasing the deficit and debt.

Moscovici added that the EU would give member states a chance to comment before opening its excessive debt proceedings, but he said he doubts that anybody would agree with the Commission’s analysis.

“Today we are not opening the excessive deficit procedure. However, it is undeniable that we see this is the path which is opening up ahead of us,” EU Economic and Monetary Commissioner Pierre Moscovici told reporters in Brussels. “It is now up to the member states to give their feelings and their views on the basis of our report over the coming two weeks.”

“To be quite frank, I have no reason to believe that they would disagree with what the commission has done by way of analysis,” Moscovici said.

Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte responded that the Italian government is convinced that the plan is “excellent” and in the best interest of the Italian people and Europe. Conte said he hopes to convince European Commission President Jean Claude Juncker during a Saturday meeting. Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini said he expects a letter from the EU announcing its punitive measures to arrive around Christmas.

Three

Analysts at ING believe that, as the proceedings unfold over several months, Italian bank stocks will remain under pressure.

“This procedure will take several months, but stands to keep (government bonds) and the Italian banking sector under pressure. Favor euro underperformance in Europe and probably further choppy euro-dollar trading in a $1.1350-$1.1450 range,” ING Bank analysts told clients.

The relief from tightening financial conditions was a surprising but not unwelcome development for investors, but with neither side showing any indication of backing down – and the Brexit threat still looming for the euro – they could prove short-lived as Conte prepares to travel to the Lions Den this weekend for what looks to be an epic confrontation with Juncker.

end

Bill Blain discusses events of yesterday and the Italian budgetary deficit affair.  He states: who will buy the 275 billion euros of debt issued by Italy.  He is correct that it will be the Italian banks who will buy this garbage and they are already saturated up to their gills with this stuff. He also states that the ECB will quietly offer the Italians long repo money at zero percent to help them if they reduce their budgetary defict.

(courtesy Bill Blain)

Blain: “Who Will Purchase The €275 Billion Of Debt Italy Expects To Issue In 2019?”

Blain’s Morning Porridge from Bill Blain

Gamma Ray Bursts, El-Erian on market disruption, Tech Stocks and Italy Bonds.

“I’ve always admired Capital Mainwaring.” [I don’t!]

I must stop reading newspapers. They are scary. Why worry about stocks and bonds when we’ve apparently got a pinwheel Nebula spinning at 12mm km/hour, named after the Egyptian God of Chaos (Apep), about to go Nova and its practically right next door – only 8000 light years away! That’s like the desk next to me in galactic terms! If a Gamma Ray Burst from such an event hit we are all literally toast. Global Crash or Supernova? You choose. (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/dying-star-could-be-a-time-bomb-rgrw2mvkq)

Rather puts things in perspective….

But, let’s assume a Supernova is not going to happen before I collect my pension.. so back to the day job.

Another bad day in stocks and still it’s the Tech companies that are leading the downside. Oil is taking a spanking, and if there was anything positive to say about the bond markets, bless me, but I can’t find it.

The papers today are full of fear… “buy-the-dip no longer working”, “short-sellers squeezed”, or “Tech Skid Becoming a Full-Blown Crash”. The extraordinarily cold weather in the US, and the threat it raises to the masses going Black Friday shopping, is being touted as yet another nail in the stock-market coffin.

However, relax. It all makes sense. Kind of.

In the FT there is a rather good article by Mo-the-Tash (sorry if anyone is offended by the nickname we’ve given Mohammed El-Arian – but its affectionate!) Let me give you a random sprinkling of phrases from his article “Risks rise for investors as developed economies falter”

Market choppiness, technical dislocations, behavioural biases, repressed volatility, market vulnerabilities, tighter liquidity, Fed balance sheet contraction, delicate economic conditions, drivers of growth – business investment, household consumption and government stimulus, economies losing momentum, instability and dislocation, danger of passive investing, technical fragility, asymmetrical responses, rollercoasters and volatility, loss-aversion biases, and “tail-events”

i’d put it top of your reading list this morning. Breathe deep, relax and sip a coffee.

Breathe out, savour the taste, and consider what’s fundamentally changed?

Figure out what it means for solid stocks as they become more investible at more realistic prices. The Age of Financial Realism is upon us!

I have my reservations about some of the FAANG names, but after I dared to present heretical thoughts that maybe US Tech stocks have had their day, I got a very sharp email from a chum of mine who evangelises the divine truth that US Tech Stocks are going to rule the world.

He points out the FAANGs – Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google – have become  effective monopolies and unregulated utilities. Monopolies are about access – and that’s just one way Amazon gets paid. My chum even suggests “Amazon, Facebook and Google paid good money for GDPR; a finer moat around their monopolies cannot be imagined!” He calls the recent stock price moves.. “noise”.

In the US 13% of retail sales are e-commerce. In the UK its 18%, and every penny you spend on the net is another penny you didn’t spent at John Lewis.

There is certainly some regulatory danger around the FAANGs – as Apple’s CEO has acknowledged – but even that spells opportunities. The breakup of Standard Oil last century and the telephone companies more recently spurred a feeding frenzy of M&A.

There is noise around the stock prices of the FAANGs at present, but don’t let that distract you from the underlying trend!

* * *

Meanwhile, in a galaxy far far away, an interesting question from ECB governor Nowotny: “Who will purchase the roughly Euro 275 bln of debt Italy expects to issue in 2019?”

I suspect Italian banks will be “encouraged” to take that bet.

I suspect they already are – the street word is the big foreign buyers of BTPs just happen to be Italian banks in London. Here’s what I expect will happen, and wonder if it’s a trade worth following:

The Italians and others will make a judgement call the ECB and Italy will be complicit partners in a “anything-it-takes Euro” fudge. Even as the ECB and EU rant at Italy about budget deficits and demands it sticks to the rules while Italy blusters about leaving the Euro or running a parallel dimension currency, the ECB or one of the resolution vehicles will quietly offer the banks unlimited Long-term Repo facilities at effective zero rates on their BTP positions, because if they don’t then the Italian banking system will disappear in a puff of logic – thus precipitating the end of everything. And, assuming Italy gets downgraded to junk? Assume the ECB will fudge that as well….

If it doesn’t happen.. well that’s a whole new game completely…

end
GERMANY/DEUTSCHE BANK
It sure looks like these guys can not do anything right. They put on a trade to minimize their risk and they end up losing another 60 million dollars
(courtesy zerohedge)

Deutsche Bank Lost $60MM On Trade Meant To Minimize Risk

While Deutsche Bank may have a far greater headache now that it has been implicated as an accomplice in Danske Bank’s giant money-laundering efforts, helping some $150 billion in funds transit out of Europe illicitly, in an amusing tangent showing how the biggest, and most troubled, German lender can seemingly get nothing right these days, the most troubled German lender had put on a hedge to minimize risk at its U.S. equities business. Instead, the company lost tens of millions on the trade.

According to Bloomberg, Deutsche Bank’s New York traders pooled billions of dollars of positions into one portfolio, known as a central risk book, in an attempt to avert losses and potentially make more money (or maybe in hopes of recreating JPM’s London Whale “hedging” behemoth). Alas, it did not work out quite as expected, and the trade backfired leading to a $60 million loss, and forcing Deutsche Bank to slash the book’s size.

A reversal of the “pod” or silo strategy popularized by such hedge funds as Millennium and SAC, central risk books have become a trend at some of the world’s biggest investment banks which have been seeking to minimize risk exposure. As Bloomberg explains, instead of dozens of workers across numerous desks working to limit possible losses, trades are transferred to a single CRB where they are managed by a small team, often with the help of complex algorithms.

But at Deutsche Bank, part of that strategy “didn’t perform as well as desired“… which considering the bank’s recent “successes” in equity trading was to be expected, and judging by the bank’s response, desired:

“Looking at isolated losses in central risk books is misleading since it does not take into account other related trading books or offsetting factors such as commissions earned,” Kerrie McHugh, a spokeswoman for Deutsche Bank in New York, said in an e-mail. She declined to elaborate on specifics.

While the size of the loss was manageable for one of Europe’s top investment banks, it represents a new glimpse into Deutsche Bank’s problems both at its equities business, which has reported quarterly declines in revenue since 2015, and in the U.S., where the Fed has been scrutinizing its controls.

Adding insult to injury, CEO Christian Sewing has targeted the stocks division for cutbacks since he took the top job in April.

Some more details from Bloomberg on the evolution of Deutsche’s CRB:

Executives at the firm started increasing the size of the CRB for the U.S. equities business in late 2016 and continued until this year, when it contained about 2 billion euros ($2.3 billion) of trades, the people said. One person said the pool contained positions in both common stock and equity derivatives, complex contracts that derive their value from shares.

While CRBs are meant to allow banks to cut costs, improve profit and bolster risk management, this particular strategy floundered, partly because of issues with the CRB’s technology, the sources said, and as Bloomberg explains, one of the problems was how well the team’s algorithms analyzed the trading success of counterparties. Another source said that the CRB may also have become “too big to manage properly.”

Deutsche Bank executives have since shrunk the size of the CRB to about several hundred million euros, the people said.

Ryan O’Sullivan, a trader who helped oversee the strategy, moved to the role of global co-head of electronic equities in May of this year, according to his LinkedIn page. Amusingly, according to McHugh, the DB spokeswoman, “he was promoted” confirming that all one needs to do to get to the top at the German bank is lose tens of millions.

And so with this latest failed attempt to prove to the world that its equities trading desk is competitive now safely in the rearview mirror, Deutsche Bank can focus on what truly matters: defending itself from the upcoming accusations that it helped Russians launder – by way of Danske Bank – some $150 billion in “hot money” into the US.

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Russia/Interpol

Interpol defies Russia and backs Bill Browder as they by-pass the Russian candidate and go with a South Korean as President

(courtesy zerohedge)

Interpol Defies Russia, Elects South Korean As

President

It appears that an aggressive lobbying campaign by the US and the UK has succeeded in stopping a qualified Russian candidate from winning the presidency of Interpol.

Interpol

One day after four US senators, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and the home office of the UK expressed outrage at the notion that Interpol Vice President Alexander Prokopchuk, a general in the Russian Interior Ministry, had emerged as the front-runner to become the international police agency’s next president. Both the US and UK urged Interpol members to vote instead for Kim Jong Yang, who assumed the role of acting president after the last president, Meng Hongwei, disappeared in China following rumors of a corruption prosecution, according to the Financial Times.

Senator Roger Wicker

@SenatorWicker

.@SenatorShaheen, @marcorubio, @chriscoons, and I oppose Russian leadership of Interpol. Russia routinely abuses Interpol for the purpose of settling scores and harassing political opponents, dissidents, and journalists. Read our full statement here: https://www.wicker.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/2018/11/wicker-shaheen-coons-rubio-warn-against-russian-leadership-of-interpol-ahead-of-general-assembly-vote 

Wicker, Shaheen, Coons, & Rubio Warn Against Russian Leadership of Interpol Ahead of General…

Helsinki Commission Members Call on Trump Admin & Interpol General Assembly Members to Oppose Alexander Prokopchuk’s Candidacy for President of Interpol

wicker.senate.gov

On Wednesday, UK Home Secretary Sajid Javid praised Kim’s “clear win” which he said “comes despite Russia’s best efforts.” He added the result was an “encouraging victory for rules and rights-based security co-operation.”

Sajid Javid

@sajidjavid

As a key global partner in security cooperation, it is vital for @INTERPOL_HQ’s credibility that its next President is from a country that follows international rules & norms, and respects human rights. Acting President Kim Jong Yang has UK’s full support

Sajid Javid

@sajidjavid

Warmly welcome the election Kim Jong Yang as President of @INTERPOL_HQ. His clear win comes despite Russia’s best efforts. Encouraging victory for rules and rights-based security cooperation

Meanwhile, the Kremlin criticized the international opposition to Prokopchuk as yet another example of the West meddling in affairs concerning Russia.

“We are witnessing the foreign mass media’s campaign to discredit the Russian candidate for Interpol president,” ministry spokesperson Irina Volk told newswire Interfax. We think it is inadmissible to politicise Interpol as a professional international organisation combining the efforts of…countries in the fight against transnational crime and terrorism.”

Western democracies feared that the election of Prokopchuk would transform Interpol into a tool of the Russian state (ignoring the many safeguards in place that limit the Interpol president’s power). Specifically, they feared Russia would use the organization to prosecute political dissidents (something that China neglected to do when one of its top security officials served as president). Interpol has denied claims that it is vulnerable to abuse by authoritarian regimes due to provisions in its constitution that specifically guard against this.

INTERPOL

@INTERPOL_HQ

The General Assembly is INTERPOL’s supreme governing body. Here’s how it works.

Opposition to Prokopchuk was particularly intense in the Baltics, where Lithuania threatened to quit the organization should Prokopchuk be elected.

Eimutis Misiunas, Lithuania’s interior minister, said Russia could use Interpol to crack down on Lithuanian officials.

Together with other EU countries and Nato allies we are the main voices advocating that if the Russian candidate is selected, Interpol could become a politicised instrument for the regime,” Mr Misiunas said.

Human rights activists say Moscow has unfairly filed “red notices” with Interpol asking countries to target and arrest dissidents and other political opponents who have fled Russia, including financier Bill Browder, who is seen in the West as a hero but is suspected of crimes as serious as murder in Russia.

Russia’s Interior Ministry said Prokopchuk would work “exclusively in the interests of the international police community” should he be elected. Now that Prokopchuk has been blocked, the irony of the campaign against him has been laid bare: The West argued against Prokopchuk, claiming that he would “politicize” Interpol’s enforcement actions. But by doing so, these same Democracies turned a technocratic election into another proxy beef in their long-running campaign against Russia.

end

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

7  OIL ISSUES

Crude oil is telling us that demand around the globe is crumbling

(courtesy zerohedge)

WTI Tumbles After Ninth Consecutive Weekly Crude

Build

WTI has rallied since last night’s API-reported surprise crude draw, but remains drastically lower even from yesterday’s highs.

President Trump’s tweet thanks Saudi Arabia for lower oil prices one day after announcing the U.S. won’t let the murder of a journalist jeopardize relations with the kingdom, slowed the momentum a little.

“Another week of inventory builds would most certainly push oil prices down further, as market concerns over waning demand growth intensify,” says Cailin Birch, global economist at The Economist Intelligence Unit

API

  • Crude -1.545mm
  • Cushing +398k – 9th week in a row
  • Gasoline +706k
  • Distillates -1.823mm – 9th week in a row

DOE

  • Crude +4.85mm (+3.45mm exp) – 9th week in a row
  • Cushing -116k
  • Gasoline -1.295mm (+100k exp)
  • Distillates -77k – 9th week in a row

Reversing the gains from API’s reported draw, DOE reported a bigger than expected crude build – the 9th weekly build in a row. Distillate inventories drewdown for the ninth week in a row and Cushing’s streak of rising stocks ended…

Production was unchanged at record highs on the week.

The kneejerk reaction was to erase the post-API gains…back to a $53 handle…

 

8. EMERGING MARKETS

 

 

END

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00

Euro/USA 1.1398 UP .0025 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES ALL GREEN

 

 

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 113.03  UP 0.324 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL

GBP/USA 1.2808 UP   0.0021  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3288  DOWN .0019 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 12 basis point, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1421 / Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED UP 5.65 POINTS OR 0.21%

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 131.13 POINTS OR 0.51% 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN  0.51% /EUROPEAN BOURSES GREEN

 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this WEDNESDAY morning CLOSED DOWN 75.58 POINTS OR 0.35%

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED GREEN

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 131.13 POINTS OR 0.51% 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 5.65  POINTS OR 0.21%

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.51%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 75.58 POINTS OR 0.35%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1223.55

silver:$14.43

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 3.08% !!! UP 3 IN POINTS from TUESDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

The 30 yr bond yield 3.33 UP 2  IN BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 96.67 DOWN 16  CENT(S) from TUESDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.96% DOWN 3    in basis point(s) yield from TUESDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.10%  DOWN 0  BASIS POINTS from TUESDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/EXTREMELY VOLATILE YESTERDAY…

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.63% DOWN 2  IN basis point yield from TUESDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3472 DOWN 15   POINTS in basis point yield from TUESDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 184 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES UP TO +.38%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 3.09% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1403 UP .0031 or 31 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 113.02 UP .309 OR 31 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2785 DOWN .0002( POUND DOWN 2 BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 35 basis points to 1.3272

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

This afternoon, the Euro was ROSE BY 31 BASIS POINTS  to trade at 1.1403

The Yen FELL; to 113.02 for a LOSS of 31 Basis points as NIRP is STILL a big failure for the Japanese central bank/HELICOPTER MONEY IS NOW DELAYED/BANK OF JAPAN NOW WORRIED AS AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY AS BOND YIELDS RISE

The POUND LOST 2 basis points, trading at 1.2785/

The Canadian dollar GAINED 35 basis points to 1.3272

 

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY closed UP AT 6.270-  ON SHORE  (YUAN UP)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.9230(  YUAN UP)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.2876

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.10%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 3 IN basis points from TUESDAY at 3.08 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.33 UP 2 in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 96.62 DOWN 21 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 4:00 PM 

London: CLOSED UP 102.31 POINTS OR 1.47%

German Dax : CLOSED UP 177.76 POINTS  OR 1.61%
Paris Cac CLOSED UP 50.61 POINTS OR 1.03%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 94.10 POINTS OR 1.06%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP: 269.40 POINTS OR 1.46%/

 

 

WTI Oil price; 55.44 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 64.06 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    65.62  THE CROSS HIGHER BY .58 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE LOWER by 58 BASIS PTS)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA:  5.2876 PER ONE USA DOLLAR.

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES +.38 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM:54.41

 

BRENT:63.35

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.06%..

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.31%/.

 

 

 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1384 ( UP 12 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:113.07 UP .354 (YEN DOWN 35 BASIS POINTS/ .

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 96.72 DOWN 12 cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.2774 DOWN 13 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 5.3062

the Russian rouble:  65/67 UP 52 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 52 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar: 1.3243 UP 64 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 6.9250  (ONSHORE)

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH):  6.9250 (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.38%

 

The Dow closed  DOWN 0.95 POINTS OR 0.00%

NASDAQ closed UP 63.43  points or 0.92% 4.00 PM EST


VOLATILITY INDEX:  20.66 CLOSED DOWN  1.82

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.653%  .LIBOR  RATES ARE RISING/BIG JUMP today

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY

 

Stocks Pop But Confidence Drops Ahead Of Black Friday Buying-Bonanza

This seemed to appropriately reflect the last few weeks of global market ‘turmoil’…

This seemed to appropriately reflect the last few weeks of global market ‘turmoil’…

China stocks trod water overnight…

European markets rallied though with Italy and Brexit hope…

 

US equities rallied on the day, peaking around the European close then dumping into the US close with Dow, S&P giving up all of the day’s gains…

The on-and-off again sell-off in both crude and stocks since the beginning of October met some holiday relief amid a bounce in risk assets after MNI reported the Fed is considering ending a cycle of interest rate hikes as early as the spring. Optimism also rose for a positive meeting between President Trump and China’s President Xi after the administration decided to exclude White House trade adviser Peter Navarro from the meeting.

A slightly different angle shows that US equity futures ramped to yesterday’s cash session highs and then faded…

 

As one would expect on the day before Thanksgiving, equity volumes were well below average…

And here’s what the corporate bond volume as reported by Trace looks like compared to the average at time of day

 

Of course, the US equity gains were all driven by a short-squeeze, but that ended when Europe closed…

 

 

FANG stocks managed gains but it was an unimpressive bounce…

 

Bank stocks got hit hard into the close…

 

Stocks caught down to bonds into the close…

 

High yield bonds record losing streak is over…

 

But notably – after the initial opening dump, both HY and IG spread widened and there was no bid for IG credit even as VIX slumped…

 

Just as we saw bonds sell off with stocks selling off yesterday, today saw bonds bid as stocks rallied…

 

 

The Dollar limped back lower after tagging Friday’s highs…

 

Offshore Yuan rallied back into the green for the week…

 

 

Most cryptos managed gains on the day but Bitcoin Cash continued to slump…

 

The dollar weakness lifted PMs and copper…

 

WTI Crude bounced off $54 after a surprise crude build, pumped and dumped, but ended the day green, offering more hope that the worst is over…

 

Despite gold’s lackluster week in USD, it is surging against the Yuan…

 

Finally, we give thanks for Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg:

David Rosenberg@EconguyRosie

The clowns on TV rant about the great macro backdrop and alluring valuations. No mention of liquidity as if they don’t know this is the fuel for risk assets. Someone should tell them that the global monetary base began to contract last March and is now running at a -7% YoY rate.

And then there’s this…

And finally, if you needed something else to worry above, the fate of the world’s developed stock markets may be more dependent than ever on U.S. shares.

This year, the U.S. weight in the MSCI World Index has risen as much as 3.6 percentage points to 62.8 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

 

Happy Thanksgiving everyone.

end

market trading

 

market data/

Again more data to suggest that the USA economy is cooling off: durable good orders plunge including defense spending

(courtesy zerohedge)

Durable Goods Orders Plunge As Defense Spending Plummets, Capex Weak

After beating expectations of a decline in September (thanks to a 118.7% MoM spike in defense aircraft spending), October was also pegged for a notable decline and Durable Goods delivered a crushing blow, plunging 4.4% MoM (against expectations of a 2.6% decline).

Thanks in large part to a 59.3% MoM collapse in Defense aircraft spending… (defense capital goods plunged 16.6% MoM and non-defense aircraft also dropped 21.4% MoM)

This is the biggest dollar drop in defense aircraft spending since 9/11/2001…

 

Year-over-year durable goods growth slowed notably to +6.65%…

Perhaps worst of all, a proxy for business spending, Cap Goods Orders non-defense were unchanged in October (after a downward revised 0.5% MoM drop in September) missing expectations of a 0.2% rise…

Certainly not the ‘hot economy’ that The Fed seems so scare of.

end
Realtors are urging the Fed to stop hiking as existing home sales slump the most since 2014.  All of the 3 major housing data is slumping:  new starts, permits and now existing home sales
(courtesy zerohedge)

Realtors Urge Fed To Stop Hiking As Existing Home Sales Slump Most Since 2014

Despite a modestly better than expected 1.4% MoM rise (after September’s 3.4% slump), existing home sales slumped 5.1% year-over-year – the biggest drop since 2014.

A blip higher in SAAR…

 

Regionally, The West is suffering the most…

  • Existing-home sales in the Northeast increased 1.5% to an annual rate of 690,000, 6.8% below a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $280,900, up 3.0% from October 2017.
  • In the Midwest, existing-home sales declined 0.8% from last month to an annual rate of 1.27 million in October, down 3.1% from a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $197,000, up 2.4% from last year.
  • Existing-home sales in the South rose 1.9% to an annual rate of 2.15 million in October, down 2.3% from last year. The median price was $221,600, up 3.8% from a year ago.
  • Existing-home sales in the West grew 2.8% to an annual rate of 1.11 million in October, 11.2% below a year ago. The median price in the West was $382,900, up 1.9% from October 2017.

The median existing-home price for all housing types in October was $255,400, up 3.8 percent from October 2017 ($246,000). October’s price increase marks the 80th straight month of year-over-year gains.

And NAR agrees with President Trump in asking for rate cuts:

“Rising interest rates and increasing home prices continue to suppress the rate of first-time homebuyers. Home sales could further decline before stabilizing. The Federal Reserve should, therefore, re-evaluate its monetary policy of tightening credit, especially in light of softening inflationary pressures, to help ease the financial burden on potential first-time buyers and assure a slump in the market causes no lasting damage to the economy,” says Yun.

So is Trump right?

end

Soft data, U. of Michigan confidence data drops on rate hike expectations.

(courtesy zerohedge)

UMich Confidence Drops As Rate-Hike Expectations Hit Historic Threshold

October’s final UMich consumer sentiment data disappointed and slipped from September’s data, with current conditions and expectations both declining.

However, perhaps the most critical element of the survey is that expectations for rates to increase (relative to expectations that rates will fall going forward), have reached a historical threshold that has typically preceded a contrarian recessionary impulse.

As UMich explains:

Interest rate expectations have always traced the outlines of economic cycles. As expansions lengthened, more consumers would expect interest rate increases, pushing the series to cyclical lows; then consumers would suddenly reverse course, lowering expectations just as downturns were about to commence (see the chart above). Note that recession dating lags by about one year, meaning that expected declines in rates are recorded about one year before the official announcement. While there is no reason to anticipate a sudden change in expectations in the months ahead, consumers have begun to resist rising interest rates on purchases of housing and vehicles.

Hopefully this time the Fed will manage interest rates to avoid hitting the threshold that causes widespread postponement as has been true in the past.

Unfortunately, it seems the impact has already begun as buying conditions in aggregate are trending lower…

Favorable vehicle buying attitudes remained at the same five-year low recorded last month. Consumers made as many favorable as unfavorable references to prices, well below the positive balance in last November’s survey, and net references to low interest rates on vehicle purchases were mentioned by one-third of last year’s total. Favorable home buying conditions remained at depressed levels, even as the proportion citing attractive pricing inched upward. The market is dominated by mortgage rates, with favorable references falling by more than half compared with last November. Overall, the net declines will act to reduce the number of homes and vehicle sales in the year ahead.

 

 

USA ECONOMIC STORIES OF INTEREST

The situation inside Illinois is pretty bad as Millennials leave.

an excellent presentation as to their huge deficits

(courtesy Ted Dabrowski/WirePoints.com)

The Only Options For Illinois Millennials: Fight Or Flight

Authored by Ted Dabrowski and John Klingner, via WirePoints.com,

Don’t expect Illinois millennials to ignore the state’s collapsing finances for long.

They’ll soon be asked to bear more and more of the financial and economic costs, from higher taxes to diminishing job prospects to cuts in funding for their kids’ schools. That’s when Illinois’ millennials will either fight back, as they’ve done on many national issues, or they’ll simply leave the state. It’s that simple.

A first sign of that fight came in a recent Crain’s opinion piece – A millennial’s call for fiscal sanity in IllinoisThe author Thomas Dowling says “Our generation’s economic future will largely depend on Gov.-elect Pritzker’s ability to balance the state budget, which means solving the state’s pension crisis.”

Dowling seems to get how bad things are. He realizes that even the best-case pension scenario will still be painful for everyone.

“Even with reform, residents under the age of 30 – my peers and the children of many of Pritzker’s transition team members – will pay for their parent’s unfunded liabilities for the rest of their lives. We will face the consequences of higher taxes and reduced government services. We are the ones that will shoulder the $129 billion for the foreseeable future.”

Dowling calls for Illinois millennials to get engaged. Kudos to him for the wake up call.

But the question of what exactly Dowling wants millennials to fight for remains. He doesn’t make clear whether he favors passing the tough reforms like a constitutional amendment so the state can restructure not-yet-earned pension benefits, or just more tax schemes and the pension “fixes” Pritzker is considering. (More on Pritzker’s progressive tax scheme and his potential pension fixes herehere and here.)

If Dowling favors more taxes and “fixes”, he’ll need to revisit his opinion piece – especially the line where he says, “We are the ones that will shoulder the $129 billion for the foreseeable future.” Dowling wrongly assumes Illinois millennials will stick around to pay the higher tax bills and face the cuts in services. But millennials are highly educated and an extremely tech-savvy generation. They don’t have to stay in Illinois to find their future.

The data already tells us they aren’t.

Illinois has lost a net of 107,000 millennials and their dependents to other states across the nation since 2012according to the Internal Revenue Service.

It’s a stunning number.

Illinois can’t have a prosperous future without the next generation of emerging professionals, digital natives and echo boomers, as millennials are also known.

There’s no good analysis on why millennials leaving, other than anecdotes. But it’s safe to say that they’re finding better opportunities elsewhere.

Illinois finances and economy are lagging the nation, a consequence of too much debt, spending and corruption.

And Illinois is shrinking. The state has lost population four years running, a distinction shared with only West Virginia.

There will be fewer and fewer opportunities to succeed as the state’s negative trends accelerate.

And as millennials come to appreciate the debt load they’re expected to burden over the next two to three decades – the average Chicago household is on the hook for at least $125,000 in state and local pension debt – expect more of them to head for the border.

The millennial voice

The millennial voice could make the difference between whether Illinois fixes its pension mess or not. But what they demand from Pritzker, House Speaker Mike Madigan and the legislature will make the difference between whether the mess is fixed or just kicked down the road.

The worst thing millennials could do is push for more taxes – especially a progressive tax – and yet another set of can kicks. When that doesn’t work, highly-mobile millennials will flee in even greater numbers, leaving whoever is left to pay for the mess.

Which brings us back to Dowling and his call to action. He and other engaged members of this cohort are going to have to convince millennials to stick around for the fight.

At Wirepoints, we think Illinois is worth fighting for. But just like Dowling, we have to make the case for what Illinois need to do. We’re fighting for tough spending and pension reforms, including a constitutional amendment on pension benefits, not more can kicks. We hope Dowling and his peers will join us.

What millennials need to know about the pension mess, tax hikes and Pritzker’s plans:

On Pritzker’s’ proposals and progressive taxes:

On the pension crisis:

On tax hikes:

end

Tom Luongo believes that it is Bill Browder who is behind the anti Russia Interpol propaganda.  He is no doubt correct and he explains why

(courtesy Tom Luongo)

Luongo: Is Bill Browder Behind The Anti-Russia Interpol Propaganda?

Authored by Tom Luongo,

Look who’s back in the news this week.  None other than Mr. Anti-Putin himself, Bill Browder.  But Browder isn’t happy at all as to why he’s in the news this time.

 

A number of things have happened in the past few days which pushed Mr. Browder’s future into uncertainty.  The first occurred on September 30th when the Chinese President of Interpol Meng Hongwei was recalled to China on unspecified corruption charges.

As we noted earlier, now that his formal resignation letter has been received by Interpol, the most likely person to replace Meng is Russian Interior Ministry official Alexander Prokopchuk.  And Mr. Prokopchuk is no fan of Mr. Browder.

On the heels of this news Russia has now opened up multiple new lawsuits against Browder (who they convicted in absentia last year to nine years in prison for tax evasion) citing him as the creator and coordinator of a criminal conspiracy.

From Sputniknews:

“Last Friday, a decision was made regarding Browder to initiate a criminal case for creating a criminal organization and directing it, that is, for the crime provided for by Part 1 of Article 210 of Russia’s Criminal Code,” Atmonyev said at a briefing of the Russian Prosecutor General’s Office.

He said Russia would soon put Browder on an international wanted list under the UN Convention Against Transnational Organized Crime.

To add to the bad press, Russia is now openly implicating Browder in the deaths of five people via poisoning, including his cause celebre Sergei Magnitsky himself.  Browder has been the person pushing Magnitsky’s death as the basis for global sanctioning of governments and people for human rights abuses.

In 2012 the U.S. passed the so-called Magnitsky Act which has been replicated around the world and is the basis on which nearly all of the U.S. sanctions have been issued over the past six years.

Russia isn’t forthcoming with any details at this point other than to say that a highly toxic water-soluble Aluminum compound was found in the liver’s of multiple victims with strong ties to Browder.

Then citing clear motive the Russians are now pursuing the matter domestically.  But, they are also doing so internationally.  Remember, Browder was picked up last year by Interpol on a warrant issued by the Russians in Spain but was soon released thanks to intervention by the U.K., of which he is now a citizen.

One has to think this will not be the case the next time Mr. Browder and Interpol’s paths cross in a country where he does not have implicit protection from Russia.

I do believe that when Russian President Vladimir Putin brought Mr. Browder up at the post-Helsinki Summit press conference he was doing so to begin the process of flushing Browder out into the open while Russia continues to investigate his offshore business dealings.

I talked about this a few weeks ago when no less than the European Union threatened Cyprus with Article 7 sanctions for simply assisting Russia in their investigations of Browder’s business dealings there.

Now this is a dangerous escalation in service of an investigation into someone who, agree or not, Russia has a legitimate interest in pursuing.  Dismissing all of Russia’s concerns about Browder as ‘politically motivated’ is pure grandstanding.  It carries no weight of law and stinks of a far deeper and more serious corruption.

Because if Browder was as pure as the driven snow as he presents himself to the world then he would have no issue whatsoever in Cyprus opening up his books to Russia and put his question of guilt to rest once and for all.

One has to wonder what’s going on here.  The U.S. has used if not outright abused the Magnitsky Act and its sequel, CAATSA, to sanction and threaten to sanction nearly everyone in the world that doesn’t go along with our version of events in Ukraine, Syria, Yemen and Iran.

We sanctioned Turks earlier this year over Pastor Brunson.

Browder has deep ties to deposed Russian oligarch Mikael Khordokovsky, who bankrolled the lobbying for the Magnitsky Act’s and CAATSA’s passage.   Browder was tied up with Edmund Safra at Republic National Bank who Martin Armstrong believes was part of a major conspiracy to overthrown Yeltsin by framing him for the theft of a $7 billion loan from the IMF.

Now, Browder is involved in blowing the whistle, supposedly, on Danish bank Danske’s Estonian branch over hundreds of billions in money laundering, some of which passed through Russia.

The Magnitsky Act has been the lynchpin that holds together the entire U.S. aggressive hybrid war against anyone we determine to be acting against our interests. So, to me it makes perfect sense for Russia and China, in the wake of sanctions being placed on Iran, to up the stakes on the Magnitsky Act itself by going after Browder and outing him as the architect of a global putsch by U.S. and European power brokers to consolidate power via the international banking and finance system.

That’s why this change at Interpol seems so convenient to me. The leader of the biggest obstacle to Browder winding up in a Russian court, Interpol, is suddenly recalled to China on unspecified corruption charges, paving the way for Russia to set Interpol’s priorities.

Explaining the backstory of the Magnitsky Act was the subject of the supposedly sinister Trump Tower meeting between Donald Trump Jr. and Russian lawyer Natalia Veselnitskaya, a meeting that was allowed to go forward as part of a plot to discredit Trump as a Russian agent.

Lee Stranahan has been banging his shoe on the table about this and his interview with Ukrainian whistleblower Andrii Telizhenko (follow the link to listen to a 20 minute excerpt) has the goods on the entire Russia-gate story being nothing more than an operation run by the Democrats to paint Donald Trump as a Russian agent.

To stop the U.S. cold in its weaponizing the dollar and the global financial system starts with discrediting the Magnitsky Act.  If every politician that voted for their local version of this thing is forced to confront how badly they’ve been lied to by seeing Browder proven to be Magnitsky’s killer rather than his champion then the knives will come out pretty quick.

Because the one thing you can count on from politicians is their narcissism.

The big questions at this point are, “What does Trump know?” and “Does he even care?”

Because if he was given even part of the story by Putin at Helsinki then there may be a lot more here than we think.  What I do know is that if Prokopchuk takes over Interpol, Browder should buddy up with Julian Assange because he won’t be leaving the U.K. anytime soon.

*  *  *

 
end
Two events caused the market to rise: MNI feels that the Fed may end rate hikes and the second was a report that peter Navarro will be “excluded’ form the Trump Xi summit
(courtesy zerohedge)

Peter Navarro Said To Be “Excluded” From Trump-Xi Summit; Stocks Hit Session High

While the earlier trial balloon from MNI that the Fed may end rate hikes in the spring did little to push futures higher, perhaps because even the algos quickly saw through its sheer market-moving propaganda which flies in the face of the Fed’s dot plot which shows 3 hikes in 2019, futures did jump on a report from SCMP that Trump trade advisor and notorious China hawk, Peter Navarro, has been excluded from the guest list when US President Donald Trump meets his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in Buenos Aires on December 1.

“Navarro will not attend the summit,” an unnamed source told the South China Morning Post, adding that Beijing and Washington were still in the process of finalizing the list of advisers taking part in the key diplomatic event that is expected to influence trade and economic relations between the world’s two biggest economies.

The Post reported earlier that Beijing and Washington are in intense preparatory talks for the summit – a dinner meeting at which each president is likely to be accompanied by six aides.

While the report has yet to be confirmed or denied by the White House, the Trump administration’s decision to exclude Navarro – the key figure behind the trade war with China – from the Argentina dinner was instantly interpreted by the market as favorable to the potential outcome of next week’s summit, and comes amid signs from both sides that they want to make progress on the dispute at the summit, with futures promptly hitting session highs on the report.

In setting the stage for the upcoming meeting, White House chief economic adviser Larry Kudlow said in an interview with Fox Business News on Tuesday that Trump was trying to “inject a note of optimism” into trade talks with China.

“He [Trump] believes that China would like to have a deal,” Kudlow said, adding there were “very detailed communications” between China and the US taking place at all levels of government.

With Navarro excluded, the SCMP notes that other candidates to accompany Trump to the dinner include Kudlow, US National Security Adviser John Bolton, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and US ambassador to China Terry Branstad.

In recent weeks, Trump’s administration is divided between hardline hawks like Navarro and Lighthizer seeking maximum concessions from China versus pragmatists like Kudlow and Mnuchin who are more willing to seek a compromise – and that will make it more difficult for Trump and Xi to reach any deal.

As reported last night, Lighthizer, the US trade chief and a key architect of the tariff war, released a report on Tuesday saying China had so far failed to change the behavior that had prompted the US to impose tariffs on around US$250 billion worth of Chinese goods.  He made the statement in conjunction with an update to the US investigation into China’s intellectual property theft under Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act. That investigation and its initial report in March provided the legal basis for Trump to impose tariffs on nearly half of all US imports from China.

“This update shows that China has not fundamentally altered its unfair, unreasonable and market-distorting practices that were the subject of the March 2018 report on our Section 301 investigation,” the trade chief said in a statement.

Still, it is too early to call a truce in the ongoing trade war: Alan Wheatley, an associate fellow of international economics at British think tank Chatham House, said US-China relations would be bumpy with or without an agreement on a trade war ceasefire in Argentina.

“The US has made it clear that it regards China as posing a much broader strategic challenge to US economic and military supremacy,” Wheatley said. “A truce would spell welcome short-term relief to nervous global markets but wouldn’t be a game-changer for relations between the two.”

end

Five huge American derivative players along with the French bank Paribas have considerable problem with the mess at GE.  I would also like to point out that BNP Paribas also has a huge problem with respect to the huge amount of sovereign Italian debt that they have purchased.

(courtesy zerohedge)

These Banks Now Have A $41 Billion Problem In GE

Three weeks ago we reported that in the first nail to its investment grade coffin, GE had found itself completely shut out of the Commercial Paper market when Moody’s downgraded its senior unsecured rating to Baa1, from A2, and downgraded the short-term rating to P-2, from P-1, making future sales of CP impossible. So, in lieu of CP access, GE said it would replace that funding with a net $40.8 billion of available credit facilities committed from banks. Or, as we explained “GE will now use its revolver, which carries a higher interest rate, to fund what it previously achieved using CP.”

This transition in GE’s reliance from commercial paper to revolver is not just a problem for GE, however, which now faces higher funding costs and encumbered assets: with the industrial conglomerate’s business and operations deteriorating rapidly, GE has become a major headache for America’s largest banks almost overnight.

As Bloomberg reports, the five biggest Wall Street firms have committed to lending at least $3.5 billion each to GE even as the industrial giant is facing rising concerns about its viability and the sustainability of its debt.

As we reported on Halloween, GE has almost $41 billion in credit lines it can draw from, and according to Bloomberg, when fully tapped, GE’s two main credit facilities would rank as the largest loans to any U.S. company that go beyond next year.

The good news for GE, is that so far it has only used about $2 billion of the available credit by the end of the third quarter, leaving itself ample room to pull more if necessary. That’s also the bad news for the big banks who are contractually obligated to provide the bank with an additional $39 billion in liquidity.

Indeed, companies typically draw down heavily on their credit lines when facing funding shortfalls. Earlier this month, investment grade-rated, yet extremely troubled California utility PG&E fully used its credit facility, sending its stock plunging even as its investors worried the company might lose its investment-grade credit rating or face liability related to wildfires ravaging the state.

Bloomberg notes as much, saying that from GE’s perspective, the unused credit is a crucial backstop as analysts voice concerns about the risk of a funding shortage.

Chief Executive Officer Larry Culp has been selling assets to raise cash and is under pressure to raise more through a stock offering. The untapped credit “gives us a foundation” as the firm takes steps to reshape itself and ultimately reduce its borrowings, he told CNBC this month.

From the banks’ perspective things are not nearly quite as rosy as the possibility of a draw-down by a borrower shut out of other funding sources poses serious liquidity risks, “including default if the company ultimately proves unable to manage its obligations.”

Meanwhile, the cost of GE default protection has soared with CDS now trading at 250bps, up from 50bps 2 months ago, signaling not only the possibility of further cuts to GE’s credit rating and higher costs for new borrowings, but – unthinkably – a default. As a reminder, GE was downgraded by the two biggest rating firms last month, ending up three grades above junk; more downgrades are imminent.

Bloomberg has some more details on GE’s revolvers, which the company divided into three categories at the end of September. The main one includes a $19.8 billion credit line from six banks, which expires in 2020. Then there’s a $20 billion backup facility from 36 banks expiring in 2021.

The third group is a collection of credit lines arranged individually with seven banks, expiring between February and May of next year. While GE doesn’t identify the three dozen lenders in the backup facility or specify how they are splitting their commitment. JPMorgan is among members of that group, so is Wells Fargo & Co., which isn’t one of the lenders named in the first line.

Such commitments can make up an outsize chunk of a bank’s portfolio. Morgan Stanley’s share of the first GE facility amounted to 6 percent of its investment-grade lending commitments at the end of September. At Goldman Sachs Group Inc., it was 4 percent of the bank’s high-grade book.

As one would expect, executives of banks who are now on the hook for billions are desperate to sound confident about the company’s prospects: “I’m not concerned about GE’s credit at all,” Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman said Tuesday in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “The market over-worries. GE is a fantastic institution, they have tremendous ability to restructure.”

Of course, Gorman knows that he is right only as long as GE retains its investment grade rating; once it is junked – and the great and inevitable “fallen angel” avalanche begins all bets are off. Still, there are limits to banks’ exposure. According to Bloomberg, GE’s filings show there are offset provisions for firms participating in both syndicates, potentially preventing the company from tapping the same lenders twice. Also, banks hedge themselves against losses from big borrowers by buying credit derivatives that act as insurance.

Well, one look at GE’s CDS shows that banks are growing more “confident” by the day that that $41 billion committed to GE, is money they will never see again…

SWAMP STORIES

 

Looks like Avenatti’s  newfound fame is over.  His accuser shows pictures of bruises and claims that he dragged her across the apartment.

We wish Avenatti the best of luck

(courtesy zerohedge)

Ungrateful F*cking Bitch”: Avenatti Accuser’s Pics

Show Bruises; Says He “Dragged Her Across

Apartment”

The woman who has accused attorney Michael Avenatti of attacking her says he dragged her around an apartment floor while calling her an “Ungrateful f*cking bitch” has posted pictures of what appear to be bruises, according to The Blast. What’s more, this apparently was “not the first time Avenatti has been aggressive.” 

Actress Mareli Miniutti says that Avenatti tossed her around an apartment and then threw her out into the hallway.

Miniutti claims she had been living with Stormy Daniels’ attorney since January, and on November 13, they got into an argument over money. She claims Avenatti called her an “Ungrateful f*cking bitch” and began forcefully hitting her in the face with pillows from the bed.

She says Avenatti exclaimed, “Do not disrespect me,” and then told her she could not sleep in his house that night. She says he grabbed the “wrist of my right arm,” and “attempted to pull me out of bed.”

Miniutti claims she tried texting a friend for help, but claims Avenatti grabbed the cell phone. The actress says he remained very close to her and she was afraid for her safety.

Avenatti then allegedly grabbed her by the arm and dragged her out of bed, on the floor and through the apartment and out the front door into the hallway. Miniutti claims she was injured while being dragged, and provided pictures of her alleged injuries in her court filing. –The Blast

Miniutti says she was in her underwear, and also suffered scratches to her back.

She says she began ringing a neighbor’s doorbell, after which Avenatti allegedly ran over and dragged her back inside his apartment.

After that, Minutti claims she put on pants and ran out of the apartment to a nearby elevator with Avenatti in tow, begging her “Don’t do this Mareli, don’t involve them.”

Miniutti says she told security about the alleged attack, and had a friend pick her up for the night. At her friend’s house, the actress says she noticed red marks on her body, and called police to report the incident.

She claims she showed back up to Avenatti’s apartment the following morning and was let in by security. Avenatti also showed up, and Miniutti explains she was told he had been arrested and then provided her statement to detectives. –The Blast

In a February incident, Miniutti says that Avenaati “had been drinking, and became angry at me,” allegedly pushing her into the hallway and causing her to hit her head. He then threw her shoes which struck her leg.

The actress says Avenatti has a history of being verbally abusive and financially controlling. She says he has “vehemently opposed my desire to earn a living outside of Hollywood,” and has “made promises to ‘take care of me.’”

However, she claims to be afraid of Avenatti and wants him kept away.

The Blast broke the story, actress Mareli Miniutti, who hails from Estonia, filed for the domestic violence restraining order against Avenatti on Monday. –The Blast

When asked about the alleged incident, President Donald Trump said “I wish him the best of luck.” 

end
The House GOP is now asking Huber to testify in the Clinton foundation probe as wll as whistleblowers
(courtesy zerohedge)

House GOP ‘Working With Whistleblowers’ In Clinton

Foundation Probe

House Republicans will hear testimony on December 5 from the prosecutor appointed by Attorney General Jeff Sessions to investigate allegations of wrongdoing by the Clinton Foundation, according to Rep. Mark Meadows (R-NC).

Meadows – chairman of the House Oversight Subcommittee on Government Operations, told The Hill that it’s time to “circle back” to former Utah Attorney General John Huber’s probe with the Justice Department into whether the Clinton Foundation engaged in improper activities, reports The Hill.

“Mr. [John] Huber with the Department of Justice and the FBI has been having an investigation – at least part of his task was to look at the Clinton Foundation and what may or may not have happened as it relates to improper activity with that charitable foundation, so we’ve set a hearing date for December the 5th.,” Meadows told Hill.TV on Wednesday.

Meadows says the questions will include whether any tax-exempt proceeds were used for personal gain and whether the Foundation adhered to IRS laws.

Sessions appointed Huber last year to work in tandem with the Justice Department to look into conservative claims of misconduct at the FBI and review several issues surrounding the Clintons. This includes Hillary Clinton’s ties to a Russian nuclear agency and concerns about the Clinton Foundation.

Huber’s work has remained shrouded in mystery. The White House has released little information about Huber’s assignment other than Session’s address to Congress saying his appointed should address concerns raised by Republicans. –The Hill

According to a report by the Dallas Observer last November, the Clinton Foundation has been under investigation by the IRS since July, 2016.

Meadows says that it’s time for Huber to update Congress concerning his findings, and “expects him to be one of the witnesses at the hearing,” per The Hill. Additionally Meadows said that his committee is trying to secure testimonies from whistleblowers who can provide more information about potential wrongdoing surrounding the Clinton Foundation

We’re just now starting to work with a couple of whistleblowers that would indicate that there is a great probability, of significant improper activity that’s happening in and around the Clinton Foundation,” he added.

The Clinton Foundation – also under FBI investigation out of the Arkansas field office, has denied any wrongdoing.

Launched in January, the Arkansas FBI probe, is focused on pay-for-play schemes and tax code violations, according to The Hill at the time, citing law enforcement officials and a witness who wishes to remain anonymous.

The officials, who spoke only on condition of anonymity, said the probe is examining whether the Clintons promised or performed any policy favors in return for largesse to their charitable efforts or whether donors made commitments of donations in hopes of securing government outcomes.

The probe may also examine whether any tax-exempt assets were converted for personal or political use and whether the Foundation complied with applicable tax laws, the officials said. –The Hill

The witness who was interviewed by Little Rock FBI agents said that questions focused on “government decisions and discussions of donations to Clinton entities during the time Hillary Clinton led President Obama’s State Department,” and that the agents were “extremely professional and unquestionably thorough.”

end
i do not think it is a good idea to fire barbs at the Chief Justice of the uSA. Trump has referred to judges appointed by Obama as “Obama Judges” etc. However he is correct.
(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Fires Back At Chief Justice Roberts Over “Obama Judges” In Ongoing

Spat

President Trump fired back at US Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts over whether or not there are “Obama judges” who “have a much different point of view than the people who are charged with the safety of our country.”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Sorry Chief Justice John Roberts, but you do indeed have “Obama judges,” and they have a much different point of view than the people who are charged with the safety of our country. It would be great if the 9th Circuit was indeed an “independent judiciary,” but if it is why……

Trump added that US Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit – which also blocked his executive order banning immigration from a list of Muslim-majority countries which he said were state sponsors of terror, was a “disgrace,” and that the San Francisco-based appeals court is “making our country unsafe!” Trump asked Roberts, a George W. Bush appointee,  to “Please study the numbers, they are shocking.”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

…..are so many opposing view (on Border and Safety) cases filed there, and why are a vast number of those cases overturned. Please study the numbers, they are shocking. We need protection and security – these rulings are making our country unsafe! Very dangerous and unwise!

Roberts issued a short statement to the Associated Press on Wednesday after Trump told reporters outside the White House that he would file a “major complaint” against an “Obama judge” who temporarily blocked his administration from temporarily denying asylum to a migrants gathered at the southern US border, reports MarketWatch

Roberts said Wednesday the U.S. doesn’t have “Obama judges or Trump judges, Bush judges or Clinton judges.”He commented in a statement released by the Supreme Court after a query by The Associated Press.

Roberts said on the day before Thanksgiving that an “independent judiciary is something we should all be thankful for.” –AP

On Tuesday, President Trump took a shot a tthe 9th circuit during the annual presidential turkey pardon – telling the two pardoned birds that they would spend the rest of their lives at “Gobbler’s Rest” on the Virginia tech campus, adding “Unfortunately, I can’t guarantee that your pardon won’t be enjoined by the 9th Circuit. Always happens.

SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
House Dems to investigate Ivanka Trump’s email use [Will resurrect focus on HRC classified emails]
House GOP to hold hearing into DOJ’s probe of Clinton Foundation
Obama Trashes Trump: ‘Confused, Blind Shrouded with Hate, Mommy Issues’ [on climatechange]
Team Obama’s unprecedented bashing of an ensuing president suggests that they fear something.  It’s not the revocation of Obama’s legacy: ObamaCare and Iran deal.  It’s the legal consequences of Spygate.
Election fraud scheme on L.A.’s skid row got homeless to sign fake names for cigarettes and cash, D.A. says    https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-skid-row-voter-fraud-20181120-story.html
END
TO ALL OF OUR AMERICAN FRIENDS, A VERY HAPPY THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY
I HOPE TO SEE YOU ON FRIDAY IF ALL GOES WELL
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