DEC 21/DOW DOWN ANOTHER 414 POINTS/NASDAQ DOWN ANOTHER 195 POINTS/THE CROOKS HIT GOLD FOR A LOSS OF $10.15 TO $1254.65/SILVER RETREATS 14 CENTS TO $14.65/HUGE PROBLEMS FOR CHINA’S HUAWEI/NAVARRO DOUBTS A DEAL WITH CHINA/HUGE NUMBER OF USA NEWS: MATTIS RESIGNS/TRUMP BRINGS BACK 7000 TROOPS FROM AFGHANISTAN/HUGE STORY TODAY FROM JEFFRY SNIDER THAT BANKS ARE HOARDING COLLATERAL/MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//

 

 

 

GOLD: $1254.65 DOWN $10.15 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver:   $14.65 DOWN 14 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  1255.70

 

silver: $14.63

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold and silver:

DEC

 

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  DEC CONTRACT: 27 NOTICE(S) FOR 2700 OZ (0.083 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  7388 NOTICES FOR 738,800 OZ  (22.954TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR DECEMBER

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

85 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  425,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 4206 for 21,030,000

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE  $3988:  DOWN 63

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $3814  down 236.00 

 

end

 

XXXX

again either JPMorgan or Goldman Sachs take a huge issance (stopping) of gold at the comex.

today’  JPMorgan  10/27 contracts

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: DECEMBER 2018 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,263.600000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 12/20/2018 DELIVERY DATE: 12/24/2018
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
323 C HSBC 3
661 C JP MORGAN 10
737 C ADVANTAGE 27 14
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 27 27
MONTH TO DAT

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED  1975 CONTRACTS FROM 172,577 UP TO 174,547 WITH YESTERDAY’S 14 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEXTODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM  AUGUST’S  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WE NOW HAVE JUST LESS THAN 20 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A  STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

1864 EFP’S FOR DECEMBER AND 0 FOR MARCH AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 1864 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1864 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 1864 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 9.32 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 4 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST SIX MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOVEMBER AND

NOW 21.585 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF DEC: 24,908 CONTRACTS (FOR 15 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 24,908 CONTRACTS) OR 124.54 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1660 CONTRACTS OR 8.302 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF DEC:  124.54 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 17.78% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:           2,801.60    MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018:                                              236.879     MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018:                                               244.95       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018:                                        236.67       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL 2018:                                           385.75        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MAY 2018:                                             210.05        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JUNE 2018:                                           345.43         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JULY 2018:                                            172.84          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR AUGUST 2018:                                      205.23          MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR SEPTEMBER 2018:                                 167,05          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR OCTOBER 2018:                                     224.875        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR NOVEMBER /2018:                                 247.18         MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1975 WITH THE 14 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX //YESTERDAY.. AS THE BOYS CONTINUE WITH THEIR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OVER TO  ETFS AT THE START OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1864 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED: 3839 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 1864 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 1975 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 14 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.79 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. .875 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 125% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT DEC MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 85 NOTICE(S) FOR 425,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./AND NOW DEC. AT 21.585 MILLION OZ
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY AN UNBELIEVABLE SIZED 19,099 CONTRACTS UP TO 436,773 WITH THE GAIN IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(A GAIN IN PRICE OF $11.50//.YESTERDAY’S TRADING) 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A STRONG  SIZED 11,878 CONTRACTS:

 

DECEMBER HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 11,878 CONTACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 437,252. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN ATMOSPHERIC SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 30,977 CONTRACTS:  19,099 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 11,878 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN: 30,997 CONTRACTS OR 3,097,700 OZ = 96.35 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS HUGE DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A SMALL GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ YESTERDAY TO THE TUNE OF $11.50???

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 13284 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF DEC : 134,380 CONTRACTS OR 13,438,000 OZ OR 417.97 TONNES (15 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 8958 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 15 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 417.97 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 417.97/2550 x 100% TONNES = 16.39% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN JULY ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE:     7195.92  TONNES   *SURPASSED ANNUAL PROD’N

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018:           653.22  TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018:         649.45 TONNES  (20 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018:             741.89 TONNES  (22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR APRIL 2018:                 713.84 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MAY 2018:                   693.80 TONNES ( 22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JUNE 2018                      650.71 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JULY 2018                       605.5 TONNES     (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR AUG. 2018                      488.54  TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR SEPT 2018                       470.64 TONNES   (19 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR OCT. 2018                        543.92 TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR NOV 2018:                        552.88 TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

Result: AN UNBELIEVABLE SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 19,099 WITH THE GAIN  IN PRICING ($11.50) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 11,878 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 11,878 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD AN ATMOSPHERIC GAIN OF 30,977 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

11,878 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 19,099 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 96.35 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE GAIN OF $11.50 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX??

 

 

we had: 27 notice(s) filed upon for 2700 oz of gold at the comex.

FILED LATE

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD DOWN $10.15 TODAY 

 

 

A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.65 TONNES OF GOLD.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/GLD INVENTORY   769.14 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 769.14 tonnes.

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS  TODAY:

 

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.139 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 1975 CONTRACTS from 172,577 UP TO 174,547  AND MOVING CLOSER TO  THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

1864 CONTRACTS FOR DECEMBER. 0 CONTRACTS FOR MARCH AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1864 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 1975 CONTRACTS TO THE 1864 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A STRONG GAIN  OF 3839 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 19.19 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER. AND NOW 21.585 MILLION OZ  STANDING IN DECEMBER.

 

 

RESULT: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 14 CENT PRICING GAIN THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER GOOD SIZED 1864 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 20.02 POINTS OR 0.79% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 129.89 POINTS OR 0.51% //The Nikkei closed DOWN 226.39 OR 1.11%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.71%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.9064 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 45.53 dollars per barrel for WTI and 53.34 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED 

//ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.9064AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9110: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA/

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

 

3 C/  CHINA

i)China hacked into IBM and HP and then went after their clients.

Trump furious..

( zerohedge)

ii)China responds to the “baseless” cyber spying accusations of the west…they warn of serious damage to relations..No kidding..

( zerohedge)

iii)this may be a huge story.  The Wall Street journal is reporting that global banks are cutting ties with Huawei.  Chinese media is denying the story. It is probably true and this will be a dagger into the heart of  China.

( zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)EUROPE

 

 

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

 

TURKEY/SYRIA/USA/RUSSIA/IRAN

The USA needs Turkey is sanctions will have a strong effect on Iran.  The USA announced a pull out of Syria which Turkey felt relieved that it would not have to confront the USA as Turkey fights the Kurds in the north of Syria.  Turkey announced today that they will circumvent sanctions on Iran and thus a severe blow to the USA. Turkey has now completely faced towards Russia and China and away from the USA

( zerohedge)

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

i)MALAYSIA/GOLDMAN SACHS

this ought to go over well with our crooked friends over at Goldman Sachs.  Malaysia is demanding $7.5 billion in reparations

( zerohedge)

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

i)Venezuela

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)By supporting thom Calandra you are supporting GATA

( Chris Powell/Thom Calandra)
ii)Gold’s three stages:
1. inflation or reflation
2. deflation
3. collateral of last resort
Snider states that we have just entered stage 3…
very important read..
(courtesy Jeffrey Snider/Alhambra Investments partners).

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING

 

ii)Market data/

a)The final estimate of the third quarter GDP has been lowered to 3.4%.  This was the quarter which has the full effect on Trump’s stimulus i.e. tax cuts etc.  GDP growth is now expected to moderate into the 2% range

( zerohedge)

 

b)After a lousy October, the pundits were hoping for a good improvement.  It disappointed them with business spending tumbling in November

another good indicator that the economy is faltering
( zerohedge)
c)The next two data points are perhaps the most important for us.  Both income and spending (which is 70% of GDP) disappoints again.  The savings rate plunges to its lowest level since 2003 as consumers are just maxed out
(courtesy zerohedge)

d)Although the U. of Michigan confidence data had a slight uptick, the future expectations or hope hit a 6 month low

This is a soft data entry point

( zerohedge)

 

 

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

a)Mattis announces that he quits as he calls out tensions with Trump over respecting allies!

( zerohedge)

b)trump orders a major drawdown in the number of troops in Afghanistan:  7000 troops are to return home in the upcoming weeks

(courtesy zerohedge)

c)Every day i am reporting to you that libor is rising because banks are loathe to lend to each other..ie they are hoarding collateral at a rate not seen since 2008.

This is a huge commentary

( Jeffrey Snider/Alhambra Investment Partners)

 

d)The huge entity Altria just had its A rating slashed to BBB:  another “fallen angel to be”.  We now have a huge number of A rated bonds lowered in ratings to BBB or the last level before junk.  This is very dangerous as those entities holding bonds that moved into junk, must sell and there will be nobody out there to buy this stuff.

( zerohedge)

iv)SWAMP STORIES

a)It is reported that Mueller may submit his Russia probe as soon as February

( zerohedge)

b)The shutdown could last a long time as every Democrat in the House voted no. Let us see what happens in the Senate.

( zerohedge)

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

Let us head over to the comex:

 

The total gold comex open interest ROSE BY AN UNBELIEVABLE SIZED 19,099 CONTRACTS UP to an OI level 436,773 WITH THE GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($11.50) IN YESTERDAY’S COMEX TRADING).FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE. ONCE WE GET TO FIRST DAY NOTICE, THEN THE OPEN INTEREST RISES AND AGAIN THEY DID NOT DISAPPOINT US.

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 11,878 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

FOR DECEMBER:  11,878 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  11,878 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  30,977 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 11,878 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A GIGANTIC SIZED 19099 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 30,977 contracts OR 3,097,700  OZ OR 96.35 TONNES.

 

We are now in the active contract month of December and we now have a total of 138 contracts stand in December so we had a loss of 75 contracts.  We had 84 notices served yesterday, so we GAINED 9 contracts or 900 oz will stand as these guys REFUSED TO  morph into London based forwards and as well as NEGATING a fiat bonus.

 

 

The next delivery month after December is January which saw it FALL TO 1968 FOR A LOSS OF 258 CONTRACTS.  February GAINED A CONSIDERABLE 15,521 contracts to stand at 323,104 contracts

 

FOR COMPARISON TO THE 2017 CONTRACT MONTH:

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE DEC 1/2017: 37.035 TONNES STOOD FOR DELIVERY

EVENTUALLY BY DEC 31.2017:  28.592 TONNES STOOD AND THE REST MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

 

 

 

WE HAD 27 NOTICES FILED AT THE COMEX FOR 2700 OZ. (0.037 tonnes)

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI ROSE BY 1975 CONTRACTS FROM 172,577 up TO 174,547 (AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S OI COMEX GAIN  OCCURRED DESPITE A 10 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DECEMBER AND, WE WERE  INFORMED THAT WE HAD A GOOD SIZED 1864 EFP CONTRACTS:

 

FOR DECEMBER: 1864 CONTRACTS, FOR MARCH 0 CONTRACTS, AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS.  THESE EFPS WERE ISSUED TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 1864.  ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 846 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A  1975 CONTRACT GAIN AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 1864 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:   3839 CONTRACTS...AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 14 CENT GAIN IN PRICING// YESTERDAY

 

 

 

 

We are now in the non active delivery month of DECEMBER and here in this front month of December we now have 111 contracts standing for a LOSS of 60 contracts.  We had 136 contracts stand for delivery yesterday so we gained 56 contracts or an additional 280,000 oz will stand for delivery as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus.

 

After  December we have the non active  January contract month and here we saw a LOSS of 52 contracts up to 1652 contracts.  February saw a 49 contract GAIN to stand at 166. March, the next big delivery month after December saw a GAIN of 1928 contracts UP to 143,112

FOR COMPARISON TO THE COMEX 2017 CONTRACT MONTH:

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE DEC 1.2017 WE HAD A RATHER LARGE: 19.47 MILLION OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY

BY THE END OF DECEMBER:  33.295 MILLION OZ AS QUEUE JUMPING WAS THE NAME OF THE GAME IN SILVER.

.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We had 85 notice(s) filed for 425,000 OZ for the DEC, 2018 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

 

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY: 199,870 contracts,

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  335,811  contracts

volumes at the comex for both gold and silver are much less than usual.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  DEC/GOLD

DEC 21-/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
NIL
oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

 

 

 

 

nil

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
27 notice(s)
 2700 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
111 contracts
(11,100 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
7388 notices
738,800 OZ
22.954 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entries:

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

we had 0 deposits into the customer account

 

total gold customer deposits;  nil oz

 

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

total gold withdrawing from the customer;  NIL oz

 

we had 0  adjustments….

FOR THE DEC 2018 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 35 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 27 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 10 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the DEC/2018. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (7388) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC. (138 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (27 x 100 oz per contract) equals 749,900 OZ OR 23.325 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of DECEMBER

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the DEC/2018 contract month:

No of notices served (7388 x 100 oz)  + {213)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (27 x 100 oz )which equals 749,900 oz standing OR 23.325 TONNES in this  active delivery month of DECEMBER.

WE GAINED 9 CONTRACTS OR 900 OZ WILL  STAND AT THE COMEX AS THEY REFUSED TO MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS.

 

 

 

 

 

THERE ARE ONLY 22.417 TONNES OF REGISTERED COMEX GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 23.325 TONNES STANDING FOR DECEMBER

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  720,731.855 oz or   22.417 tonnes*
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,338,693.721 oz 259.368 tonnes
*however we have 22.954 tonnes of gold ALREADY SERVED UPON against dealer inventory of 22.417 tonnes and so far we have had no settlements  as of yet.  We generally get a settlement when we see an adjustment from the dealer side to the customer side..
we have a total of 23.325 tonnes of gold standing for metal against only 22.417 tonnes of dealer gold and .182 tonnes has been settled so far…(Dec 17)

IN THE LAST 27 MONTHS 95 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE NOV DELIVERY MONTH

DEC INITIAL standings/SILVER

DEC 21, 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
1,802,725.340 oz
Brinks

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
583,913.300
oz
HSBC
No of oz served today (contracts)
85
CONTRACT(S)
425,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
26 contracts
130,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 4291 contracts

(21,455,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

we had 1 deposits into the customer account

 

i) Into JPMorgan: nil oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 150.55 million oz of  total silver inventory or 51.03% of all official comex silver. (152.0 million/292 million)

 

ii) Into HSBC:  583,913.300  oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today: 583,913.300   oz

we had 1 withdrawals out of the customer account:
iii)Out of Brinks:  1,802,725.340 oz

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals: 1,802,725.340   oz

 

we had 1 adjustments and this is what I look for in settlements..we got it in silver but not in gold yet.

 

ii) Out of CNT:  58,885.09 oz was adjusted out of the customer account and this landed into the dealer account of CNT

 

 

total dealer silver:  83.398 million

total dealer + customer silver:  293.566 million oz

 

 

 

 

The total number of notices filed today for the DEC 2018. contract month is represented by 85 contract(s) FOR 425,000  oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in DEC., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 4291 x 5,000 oz = 21,455,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC. (111) and the number of notices served upon today (85x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the DEC/2018 contract month: 4291(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of DEC( 111) -number of notices served upon today (85)x 5000 oz equals 21,585,000 oz of silver standing for the DEC contract month.  This is a strong number of oz standing for an off delivery month.

We GAINED 56 contracts or 280,000 additional oz will stand and these guys refused to accept a London based forward as well as negate receiving a fiat bonus. The EFP route is nothing but a cash settlement process and it is done in London to avoid detection. It is becoming quite obvious that the bankers are in urgent need of silver as we witness the constant queue jumping in silver these past 20 months.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY:  50,898 CONTRACTS  … 

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 79,515 CONTRACTS… 

volumes at the comex very light considering the break out in silver.

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 79,515 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 397 million OZ  56.7% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -3.77-% (DEC 21/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -1.73% to NAV (DEC 21 /2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -3.77%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.67/TRADING 12.17/DISCOUNT 3.77

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

DEC 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.15 TODAY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.65 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 769.14 TONNES

DEC 20/WITH GOLD UP $11.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY AT 771.79 TONNES

DEC 19/WITH GOLD UP $3.15 TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 8.23 TONNES OF GOLD ENTERED THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 771.79 TONNES

DEC 18/WITH GOLD UP $1.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC  17 WITH GOLD UP $10.60 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.60: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 12/WITH GOLD UP $3.05 A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.24 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/SOMETHING IS BURNING…/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.85 A SMALL DEPOSIT OF .59 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.32 TONNES

DEC 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.05 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.73 TONNES

DEC 7/WITH GOLD UP $8.35/A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.51 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.73 TONNES

DEC 6/WITH GOLD UP $1.60: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 758.21 TONNES

DEC 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.25: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 758.21 TONNES

DEC 4/WITH GOLD UP $7.25: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.53 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 758.21 TONNES

DEC 3/WITH GOLD UP $13.25: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 29/WITH GOLD UP $1.30: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 28/WITH GOLD UP $9.45 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.60 A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 26/WITH GOLD DOWN 65 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 762.92 TONNES

 

NOV 23/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.25/A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.06 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 762.92 TONNES

NOV 21/WITH GOLD UP $6.70 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.86 TONNES

NOV 20/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.95: A BIG CHANGE: A GOOD SIZED DEPOSIT OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.86 TONNES

NOV 19/WITH GOLD UP $2.05: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.68 TONNES

NOV 16/WITH GOLD UP $8.00: A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.48 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.68 TONNES

NOV 15/WITH GOLD UP $5.35/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.16 TONNES

NOV 14/WITH GOLD UP $8.15: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.16 TONNES

NOV 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.75: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 6.77 TONNES AT THE GLD/THAT SHOULD END THE WHACKING OF GOLD FOR NOW AND A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 84 TONNES: INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.16 TONNES

NOV 12/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.65: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.23

NOV 9/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.80: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 755.23 TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

DEC 21.2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 769.14 tonnes

*IN LAST 521 TRADING DAYS: 166.02 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 421 TRADING DAYS: A NET 6.02 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

DEC 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.139 MILLION OZ/

DEC 20/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.408 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV/ INV. RESTS AT 317.139 MILLION OZ/

DEC 19/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 751,000 OZ INTO THE SLV./INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.547 MILLION OZ/

DEC 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.796 MILLION OZ/

DEC 17/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY/ A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 939,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.796 MILLION OZ/.

DEC 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 13/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 12/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ

DEC 11/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY ESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 7/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.817 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY LOWERS TO 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 321.552 MILLION OZ.

DEC 4/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 134,000 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.552 MILLION OZ/

DEC 3/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.686 MILLION OZ/

NOV 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.22 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV /INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.686 MILLION OZ/

NOV 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.906 MILLION OZ.

NOV 28/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 188,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.906 MILLION OZ/

NOV 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.301 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.718 MILLION OZ/

NOV 26/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.019 MILLION OZ

NOV 23/WITH SILVER DOWN 25 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.019 MILLION OZ.

NOV 21/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.019 MILLION OZ/

NOV 20/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 563,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.019 MILLION OZ/

NOV 19/WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY:NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ/

NOV 16/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ/

NOV 15/WITH SILVER UP 21 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ

NOV 14/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ

NOV 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 15 CENTS; A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 328,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.456 MILLION OZ/

NOV 12/WITH SILVER DOWN 10 CENTS/ A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY A THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 940,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 324.784 MILLION OZ

NOV 9/WITH SILVER DOWN 29 CENTS: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 325.724 MILLION OZ/

 

 

DEC 21/2018:

 

Inventory 317.139 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.43/ and libor 6 month duration 2.90

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .47

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.65%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 3.07

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.42

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

off for Christmas

 

 

END
 
ii) GATA stories
By supporting thom Calandra you are supporting GATA
(courtesy Chris Powell/Thom Calandra)

Support GATA by subscribing to The Calandra Report

 Section: 

11:34a ET Thursday, December 20, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Our longtime friend the intrepid world-traveling market analyst Thom Calandra, publisher of The Calandra Report financial letter, is generously offering GATA supporters a deeply discounted one-year subscription offer in which half the price will be donated to GATA.

The regular price of a year’s subscription to The Calandra Report is $249. The discounted offer to GATA supporters is $149, of which $75 will be donated to GATA.

… Dispatch continues below .

Calandra says: “We are looking for a handful of investors and participants who care about honest, first-hand reporting and research about mining, exploration, and the royalty model — inside and outside of metals (gold, silver, platinum, copper, zinc, cobalt, nickel) — and biomedical issues and an occasional special situation.”

Samples of The Calandra Report can be viewed here:

http://thomcalandra.com

Along with GATA Chairman Bill Murphy and your secretary/treasurer, Thom spoke at the New Orleans Investment Conference in October and was interviewed there by Charlotte McLeod for the Investing News Network. The interview is headlined “Why Diversification in Commodities Is a Great Thing” and can be heard here:

https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/precious-metals-inves…

The Calandra Report is a private letter and publishes actionable editions about twice weekly. Thom is readily available to his subscribers and is glad to correspond with them.

The Calandra Report started in 1999 under the umbrella of MarketWatch.com, which Thom co-founded. It has been in its current form as a private letter since 2011.

Two subscription choices with this special offer for GATA supporters are available. Both cost $149.

— A one-year, non-recurring subscription:

https://www.paypal.com/webapps/hermes?token=4V096819L4228420R&useraction…

— And a one-year subscription that automatically renews unless you cancel:

https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=URG…

This offer will continue through December 27. Please consider it, since The Calandra Report is always interesting and GATA really could use the help right now.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org




iii) Other Physical stories
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

 

-END-

Gold Enters Stage Three

Gold’s three stages:
1. inflation or reflation
2. deflation
3. collateral of last resort
Snider states that we have just entered stage 3…
very important read..
(courtesy Jeffrey Snider/Alhambra Investments partners)..

Authored by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investment Partners,

Rather than sticking gold in with my last one on collateral, I felt it deserved its own focus. Its duality often puts it on the side of deflation with collateral shortage as the main mechanism. Given that, it wouldn’t have been surprising if gold was collapsing now as it had been during the earlier eurodollar mess after mid-April.

But, as I pointed out herethere are actually three stages of gold.

The first is reflation or inflation, straightforward enough.

The second deflation stage historically isn’t associated with the worst of deflation. It just pushes gold down in sympathy with other commodities.

Then, and who can predict when it flips, what often follows is a fear stageMarkets are struck by obvious liquidity/money problems with collateral front and center. That would otherwise be very gold negative. Instead, the price is supported by its opposite use – the end-of-world hedge.

Gold may be collateral of last resort but many still treat it as a hedge against everything going wrong – including central banks and their numerous big errors (forecasts). Therefore, even with renewed deflation and market liquidations tied right into collateral problems gold has been moving in that other direction – UP.

The timing, second week in October, further aligns with the bigger negatives showing up. Thus, higher gold seems consistent with that third stage rather than the first (and it can’t be the second). From that inference, what must it be like driving such hedging demand given just how bad collateral conditions are indicated (dealer hoarding most of all)?

In other words, if there wasn’t this fear bid, gold would probably be down huge likely more than it was after April 18. That it’s not and is in fact at multi-month highs is a testament to the level of anxiety permeating global markets right now.

END
RUSSIA adds a huge 37.3 tonnes of gold to its official status and by year end it will accumulate over 300 tonnes.  Since Russia produces only 270 tonnes, then  they are purchasing gold from the open market
(courtesy Lawrie Williams)

LAWRIE WILLIAMS: Russia keeps up the gold pressure

With economic growth perhaps even higher than that in the USA – at least according to President Putin – Russia appears to be shrugging off the effects of economic sanctions put in place by the USA and European nations. And last month it once again added substantially to its gold reserves with the central bank taking in another 1.2 million ounces (37.3 tonnes). This has already made 2018 a record year for increasing its gold holdings, with still another month to go,

Altogether the nation has added almost 265 tonnes of gold to its reserves so far this year and is heading for 300 tonnes for the full year if the current rate of gold purchases continues. Interestingly this possible target looks to be in excess of the country’s total annual gold mine production – estimated by the major consultancies at around 270-280 tonnes – the world’s third largest after China and Australia. It is possible that Russia’s 2018 gold output may have risen a little but probably not by up as much as around 20-30 tonnes.

The World Gold Council has already noted a significant upturn in global central bank gold purchases this year. Last year it put this total at a little over 371 tonnes. Central bank purchases in the current year have already exceeded this if we take the latest Russian figures into account. A number of countries have joined the gold purchasing bandwagon – some for the first time in decades.

Our own estimate for the whole of 2018 puts world central bank overall annual demand at around 500 tonnes. And that is under the assumption that the Chinese central bank has not been adding to its reserves since October 2016 as it has been telling the IMF, which, as we have often stated, almost certainly hides the true picture. We assume China has been accumulating gold at at least the same rate as it did from 2009 to 2016 when it announced a massive 604 tonne increase all at once – so at least 100 tonnes a year. As the world’s biggest gold producer, and as a nation that prohibits gold exports, it could easily surreptitiously be accumulating gold at well above that rate without unduly disturbing the markets. But we have not taken this assumption into account in our global estimate. If China has been buying gold the world gold reserve build-up could be significantly higher.

Ronan Manly, who conducts perhaps the most detailed analyses of the gold market, writing on http://www.bullionstar.com, comments thus: “My personal opinion is that the Chinese State has a lot more monetary gold reserves than 1842 tonnes [the official level it reports to the IMF], and even more than 4000 tonnes, that they are constantly accumulating gold.”,

Manly doesn’t have any specific data to back up his assumption as the real level of Chinese gold reserves is a closely guarded secret, but the country does have a track record of surreptitiously building its gold holdings and only announcing the increases at multi-year intervals. And this assumes that what China actually announces when it does report its reserve increases is indeed accurate data. It could hugely understate the true position – or conceivably it could overstate it, but we think this unlikely.

Also, China’s officially announced way of circumventing the petrodollar in its payments for its much needed oil imports is to pay in yuan, convertible into gold – an appealing substitute for the U.S. dollar given the USA’s debt situation – which is another reason for it to build its gold reserves. Indeed given Russia is probably the primary supplier of oil to China at present it would not be too surprising if China is the source of some of the Russian central bank’s newly acquired gold.

21 Dec 2018

-END-

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED DOWN TO 6.9064/HUGE DEVALUATION FOR THE PAST FOUR WEEKS STOPS ON TRUCE/

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.9110   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 20.02 POINTS OR 0.79%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 129.89 POINTS OR 0.51%

 

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 226.39 POINTS OR 1.11%

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/USA dollar index RISES TO 96.55/Euro FALLS TO 1.1424

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. +.05/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 112.64/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 45.53 and Brent: 53.34

3f Gold DOWN/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.24%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 2.79% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.38%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.52: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 4.37

3k Gold at $1260.75 silver at:14.69   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 24/100 in roubles/dollar) 68.57

3m oil into the 45 dollar handle for WTI and 53 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 111.22 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9891 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1335 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to +0.23%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.79% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.02%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.3126

 

Global Markets Ends Miserable Week In Sea Of Red

Call it the “Satan rally.”

Global markets are set to end a miserable week, one where stocks were expected to levitate into the holidays on the back of a belated Christmas rally, in a sea of red with S&P futures sliding and Asia and Europe sharply lower.

Sentiment is so dismal that not even an explicit promise of fiscal and monetary stimulus from China evinced more than a shrug from traders who barely responded to the overnight news of “significant” tax cuts and more monetary stimulus from Beijing which was released after the annual Economic Work Conference concluded in Beijing on Friday.

Perhaps this is the result of fears that the trade issue won’t be resolved any time soon given the latest U.S. accusations over spying. whatever the reason for the muted reaction, markets no longer see mere promises out of China for “more” as anything more than just failed attempts at jawboning, especially after last night’s terse official statement by China’s foreign ministry that the Chinese government has never participated or supported any stealing of trade secrets, and urged the U.S. to correct its own cyber espionage wrongdoings and withdraw indictment of Chinese nationals.

Meanwhile, traders were far more focused on the rising threat of an extended U.S. government shutdown which together with further hikes in U.S. borrowing costs compounded investor anxieties over the trajectory of global economic growth.

“China is cooling and the euro zone is slowing down, and some of the economic indicators from the U.S. have been a bit soft recently, but yet the Fed hiked rates and suggested that two more interest rate hikes were lined up for 2019,” said Michael Hewson, chief markets analyst at CMC Markets in London who added that speculation the U.S. economy could be headed for a recession has picked up, dampening global sentiment. “Fear about a U.S. government shutdown is playing into the mix too.”

European shares opened in negative territory, following in the footsteps of Thursday’s U.S. rout and sharp drop in Asian markets. The European STOXX 600 index fell over half a percent, continuing its slide towards lows not seen since the end of 2016, and is less than 2% away from a bear market.

Most European bourses and industry indexes were in the red after the S&P 500 fell overnight, heading for its worst quarter since the days of the financial crisis in late 2008, with a loss of 15% so far. The Nasdaq, which briefly entered a bear market on Thursday, has shed 19.5% from its August peak.

Earlier in the session, the MSCI All-Country World index was down 0.2%. It was set for its worst week since March. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei lost 1.1% to close at its lowest since mid-September last year, after giving up 5.6% this week. Australian stocks slipped 0.7% , hovering just above a two-year trough hit earlier in the session. Meanwhile in China, China’s Shanghai Composite lost 0.8% after the United States accused Beijing of orchestrating the hacking of government agencies and companies around the world.

After the Fed sparked the biggest Fed-announcement day selloff in over a decade with a not-dovish-enough-hike, markets were further spooked when President Trump refused to sign legislation to fund the U.S. government unless he received money for a border wall, thus risking a partial federal shutdown on Saturday.

“Political brinkmanship in Washington is further heightening market uncertainty,” said Westpac economist Elliot Clarke. “Friday will be a tense day in Washington, and for financial markets, as a last-minute compromise is sought.”

Making things worse, political pundits now say that the government shutdown may last far longer than some suspect, potentially impacting risk assets as well.

Jake Sherman

@JakeSherman

As I think more and more about this shutdown, the more I think it could last some time.

It doesnt seem likely that it will be avoided today. Monday Tuesday — people will be away.

Buckle up

Adding to the sense of crisis was news U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis had resigned after Trump announced a withdrawal of all U.S. forces from Syria and sources said a military pullback from Afghanistan was on the cards.

The brittle mood culminated in another bloodbath on Wall Street where the Dow ended Thursday with a loss of 1.99%, the S&P 500 dived 1.58% and the Nasdaq closed 1.63% lower.

The mood change has triggered a rush out of crowded trades, including massive long positions in U.S. equities and the dollar and short positions in Treasuries. Lipper data showed investors pulled nearly $34.6 billion out of stock funds in the latest week and were heading for the biggest month of net withdrawals on record.

In rates, yields on the 10-year U.S. Treasury were back up to 2.795% after hitting their lowest since early April at 2.748% on Thursday’s bid to safety. As recently as October, they had been at a seven-year top of 3.261 percent. The gap between two- and 10-year yields was back up to just 12 bps, after flattening to single digits overnight.

In currency markets there was also a sense of capitulation as the dollar dived 1.1% on the yen on Thursday to hit a three-month trough at 110.80. However, the dollar rebounded on Friday, rallying to a session high in early London hours, snapping four days of losses against the euro. Still, the dollar was headed for its worst week in nine months, before a plethora of U.S. data releases and hefty expiries in the majors currencies.

The euro dipped 0.1 percent to $1.1430, having jumped to its highest in over six weeks at $1.1485. The pound was steady, even as data showed the U.K. current-account deficit stood at its highest in two years in the third quarter. The yen also held its ground; the Japanese currency headed for its best week versus the dollar since February. New Zealand and Australian dollars were the worst performers; the Aussie headed for a third straight weekly loss, the longest run since July.

Oil prices, which slid just over 4 percent on Thursday, continued their slide: Brent (-2.0%) and WTI (-1.0%) have seen a further decline in prices amidst ongoing concerns over global growth and excess supply. Recent news flow has seen comments from  Russian Energy Minister Novak that they are sticking to plan to cut oil production by 228,000 BPD with Russian oil producers confirming their readiness to cut output.

Gold prices which remained steady for much of the session dropped into the red as the dollar strengthened, although the yellow metal is still within a narrow USD 5/oz range on the day. Elsewhere, Chinese aluminium producers are estimated to cut more than 800,000 tonnes of capacity each year according to Antaike although no specific time period is given; for reference Chinese smelters have closed over 3.2mln tonnes of capacity in 2018.

In terms of data, all eyes will be on U.S. inflation numbers due later on Friday, day, which include the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of core inflation. Expected data include GDP, durable goods orders, and personal income and spending. CarMax is reporting earnings

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.7% to 2,468.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.7% to 334.12
  • MXAP down 0.7% to 145.05
  • MXAPJ down 0.3% to 472.46
  • Nikkei down 1.1% to 20,166.19
  • Topix down 1.9% to 1,488.19
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.5% to 25,753.42
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.8% to 2,516.25
  • Sensex down 1.8% to 35,765.37
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.7% to 5,467.64
  • Kospi up 0.07% to 2,061.49
  • German 10Y yield rose 1.4 bps to 0.242%
  • Euro down 0.2% to $1.1420
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 3.4 bps to 2.379%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 0.6 bps to 1.38%
  • Brent futures down 1.1% to $53.73/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.1% to $1,258.24
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.3% to 96.60

Top Overnight News

  • China’s top policy makers said ‘significant’ cuts to taxes and fees will be enacted in 2019, and signaled an easier monetary policy stance, as the government tries to put a floor under the economic slowdown
  • The U.S. government is just hours away from a partial shutdown with Congress at an impasse over funding President Donald Trump’s border wall
  • Italy’s government is expected to seek a key vote on its 2019 budget bill in Rome late on Friday, according to a Senate official
  • U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May’s senior team are wrestling with the question of what to do if her Brexit divorce deal is thrown out by lawmakers. In private, the options on the table include postponing the divorce, calling another referendum or even announcing fresh elections

Asia-Pac stocks were lower across the board as the global stock rout continued into the region following the losses in US amid fears of a government shutdown. The DJIA posted a fifth consecutive session in the red as the index fell to a 14-month low, while the Nasdaq briefly dipped into bear market territory amid weakness in Amazon and Apple, meanwhile the S&P printed its sixth day of back-to-back losses. ASX 200 (-0.7%) hovered at a two-year low as the index felt pressured by financial names as the “Big Four” banks sat firmly in the red, alongside insurance names (ASX 200 Insurance Index -0.8%) amid a large number of claims after severe thunderstorms in Sydney. Nikkei 225 (-1.3%) fell deeper into bear market as regional shares were poised for the worst week since October, with downside exacerbated by the firmer JPY. Elsewhere, Shanghai Comp. (-1.1%) opened with firm losses and extended the decline as the Mainland suffered from losses in financials and real estate names. Hang Seng (+0.5%) rebounded off intraday lows after heavyweight Tencent spiked higher by over 4% after the Chinese government hinted at lifting a nine-month long block on the release of new online games.

Top Asian News

  • Tencent, Peers Rally on Reports China Resumes Game Approvals
  • It’s Only Getting Worse for Asian Shares Set for 21-Month Low

Main European Indices are in the red [Euro Stoxx 50 -0.7%] with equity markets following the losses seen in Asia. Outperformance is seen in the FTSE 100 (-0.2%) after Anglo American (+1.6%) are up after resuming operations in their Minas-Rio iron ore plant; with other mining names such as Antofagasta (+2.3%), Glencore (+1.2%) and Rio Tinto (+1.0%) also in the green. Sectors are similarly in the red, with some outperformance seen in the materials sector. Other notable movers include Just Eat (+3.9%) who are up in sympathy after Delivery Hero (+9.0%) sold their German assets to takeaway.com. Danske Bank (-1.8%) firmly in the red after issuing their second profit warning for 2019.

Top European News

  • Macron’s Little Helper CEOs Spread Holiday Cheer With Bonuses
  • London Gatwick Open With Mammoth Backlog as Drones Disappear
  • Credit Suisse Pushes On in Wealth Market That UBS Abandoned

In FX trading, the Greenback has rebounded from overnight lows and the index appears to be forming a firmer base above 96.000, albeit thanks in part to counterpart currency weakness as broad risk sentiment remains bleak ahead of the festive break. Indeed, the DXY has ventured back over 96.600 vs 96.241 at one stage and a post-FOMC low of 96.163 ahead of a packed release schedule on the final full trading session of the year.

  • NZD/AUD – The Kiwi has extended losses vs its US peer in wake of Thursday’s much weaker than expected NZ GDP data, news that the RBNZ is mulling a 2-fold increase in bank reserve holdings of high grade assets and a call by one prominent regional bank for the OCR to be cut by 25 bp late next year. Nzd/Usd is hovering around 0.6725 and Aud/Nzd is holding above 1.0500 even though the Aussie Dollar has fallen in sympathy and under the weight of broader risk aversion, not to mention another US-China spat that could derail efforts to resolve trade issues. Aud/Usd is pivoting 0.7100 with a hefty 2.1 bn option expiry at the strike perhaps exerting a gravitational pull.
  • CHF/CAD/EUR – All succumbing to the latest Usd revival, as the Franc slips back below 0.9900 and Loonie hits fresh, albeit marginal new 2018 lows circa 1.3535 against the backdrop of still precarious crude prices, ahead of top tier and potentially pivotal Canadian data in the form of GDP and retail sales. Meanwhile, the single currency continues to mirror Dollar moves and perhaps respect more technical/flow-related levels with another fade ahead of 1.1500 and the 100 DMA at 1.1482 culminating in a drift back towards 1.1400 where 1.4 bn expiries reside.
  • JPY/GBP – Both holding up relatively well, if not quite bucking the overall trend, although the Jpy is displaying its characteristic greater allure in risk-off climes and trades near the top of a 111.05-45 range. Cable is also pretty restrained between 1.2700-1.2645, with a raft of UK data largely shrugged off in the Brexit hiatus and consolidation in vogue before Xmas and New Year.

In commodities, Brent (-2.0%) and WTI (-1.0%) have seen a further decline in prices amidst ongoing concerns over global growth and excess supply. Recent news flow has seen comments from Russian Energy Minister Novak that they are sticking to plan to cut oil production by 228,000 BPD with Russian oil producers confirming their readiness to cut output. Separately, IEA’s Birol has commented that US oil production will equal the combined production of Russia and Saudi Arabia by 2025. Gold prices which remained steady for much of the session have dropped into the red as the dollar has strengthened, although the yellow metal is still within a narrow USD 5/oz range on the day. Elsewhere, Chinese aluminium producers are estimated to cut more than 800,000 tonnes of capacity each year according to Antaike although no specific time period is given; for reference Chinese smelters have closed over 3.2mln tonnes of capacity in 2018. As according to the International Copper Study Group global refined copper market had a 168,000 tonnes deficit in September compared to 43,000 tonnes in August.

Looking at the day ahead, in the US we’ve got a packed agenda. First up is the third and final Q3 GDP revisions where no change is expected from the +3.5% qoq saar print. Also due are preliminary November durable and capital goods orders data, while not long after that we get the November PCE report. The consensus is for a +0.2% mom reading which would be enough to push up the annual rate to +1.9% yoy. Finally, we’ll get the final December University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey readings and the December Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey. We should note that today is also a quadruple witching day for stock markets, so it wouldn’t be a great surprise to see a pick-up in volatility towards the end of the session.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 3.5%, prior 3.5%
  • 8:30am: Personal Consumption, est. 3.6%, prior 3.6%
  • 8:30am: Core PCE QoQ, est. 1.5%, prior 1.5%
  • 8:30am: Durable Goods Orders, est. 1.6%, prior -4.3%; Durables Ex Transportation, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%
  • 8:30am: Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.2%, prior 0.0%; Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.2%, prior 0.3%
  • 10am: Personal Income, est. 0.3%, prior 0.5%; Personal Spending, est. 0.3%, prior 0.6%
  • 10am: PCE Deflator MoM, est. 0.0%, prior 0.2%; YoY, est. 1.8%, prior 2.0%
  • 10am: PCE Core MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.1%; PCE Core YoY, est. 1.9%, prior 1.8%
  • 10am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 97.4, prior 97.5; Current Conditions, prior 115.2; Expectations, prior 86.1
  • 11am: Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. 12.5, prior 15

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Welcome to the last EMR of 2018 and shortest/longest day of the year depending on where you’re reading this. 2018 has been like a rebellious teenager suddenly aware of their own mind, independence, and the world around them after years of being guided and cajoled in everything they do. For us, peak QE moving to QT and the Fed raising rates four times this year has been enough to reverse a significant amount of the liquidity-inspired asset price returns of the pre-tightening era. A bit like Road Runner galloping off the cliff only to suddenly look down. In today’s pdf (towards end) we update our chart of the percentage of global assets down on a dollar adjusted basis each year since 1901. 2018 continues to the be the worst year on record on this measure with 93% of assets currently down.

This chart has been the most requested chart we’ve ever been involved in, which hopefully doesn’t say anything about the quality of our previous work. We think 2019 will again be difficult for the same reasons we thought 2018 would be, but believe that, in the short term, markets have overreacted and gone too far too quickly. So we think a Q1 rally could be on the cards, even if the year  ends up being tough. We still think the risks of a 2020 downturn are elevated but think the short-term US economic risks are relative low.

Whether a downturn materialises or not after the end of next year, markets could price it in increasingly as 2019 develops, which would be a problem. However, nothing is preordained and perhaps the most likely way this cycle could be extended for longer is via a policy error from the Fed (not tightening into higher inflation) or if inflation genuinely rolls over here. If they end up not raising rates in 2019 for either reason then this could steepen curves, help risk, and prolong the cycle. So all to play for still. Nothing is set in stone.

As you read this I will be just about to start a 12-hour drive to the Alps which always takes us nearer 18 hours with stops – planned or in response to events! I bought all three of the children very cheap tablets to watch various stuff on with the aim to reduce the crying/travel time at the cost of potentially ruining their upbringing. Thank you for all the support, interaction and for reading this year.  Happy Christmas and NY to all of you and your families from Craig, Quinn, and myself. As a passing note before we review markets one last time I thought I would do my usual list of favourite book, film, TV show and album of the year. Favourite book was “The Spy and the Traitor” – Ben MacIntyre. A remarkable true story of a double agent that reads like fiction. Favourite film was “The Guernsey Literary and Potato Peel Pie Society”. This is utterly sentimental but very sweet and I only watch 5 or 6 films a year nowadays and all at home so not much to choose from. I think the others were “The Darkest Hour”, “Molly’s Game”, “I Tonya”, “Game Night”, and “All the Money in the World”. I enjoyed them all. Best TV was probably “Bodyguard” for its gripping absurdity and the fact that almost everyone in the U.K. watched it. Closely behind were “Better Call Saul”, and “A Very British Scandal”. I fully expect the best TV of 2019 to be the final series of Game of Thrones which hopefully will be out just as I move into my new house with a big new TV in April. Best album is difficult as I only stream things these days but I’d say The 1975 – “A Brief Inquiry into online relationships” or Paul Weller – “True Meanings”. Feel free to send me your lists!!!

The last EMR of the year from us sees markets continuing the recurring nightmare seen of late with no circuit breaker in sight at the moment. Indeed, the S&P 500 tumbled -1.58% and has now dropped -5.10% this week alone and is now down -10.61% in December.The NASDAQ fell -1.63% and on a closing level has now dropped -19.73% from the intraday highs at the end of August, and therefore just shy of closing in bear market territory after trading there intra-day. The NYSE FANG index also tumbled -3.42% (down -28.03% from the YTD peak) while in Europe the STOXX 600 finished -1.45% to close at a fresh two-year low. The DAX, CAC, and IBEX fell -1.44%, -1.78%, and -1.97% respectively to reach new multi-year lows as well. Meanwhile US HY credit ended another +20bps wider yesterday in cash terms which means spreads are 60bps wider this week alone with one day left to play.That’s within two basis points of the worst week of the last four years, which was +62bps in December 2015, which  incidentally was the week before the Fed executed its first rate hike of the cycle, and also came shortly before the Fed ended up walking back its planned pace of rate hikes.

As for the yield curve watch, the US 2s10s touched an intraday low of 9.5bps and therefore eclipsed the intraday lows from December 4th. It nevertheless steepened +2.9bps on the day to 13.6bps however this morning in Asia is trading at 12.2bps. Interestingly, despite the risk off Treasury yields were broadly 2-5bps higher across the curve yesterday. In Europe bond markets were generally stronger yesterday led by BTPs (-3.6bps) while Gold (+1.35%), which has been the other strong performer since the October selloff, also rose.

Back to this morning in Asia where sentiment has failed to improve and markets are continuing to follow Wall Street’s lead with the Nikkei (-1.51%), Hang Seng (-0.25%), Shanghai Comp (-1.09%) and Kospi (-0.35%) all down. Elsewhere, futures on S&P 500 are down -0.30% and oil prices (WTI +0.78% and Brent +0.57%) are up following yesterday’s decline (more on this below). As for the overnight data, Japan’s headline November CPI printed in-line with consensus at +0.8% yoy however there were marginal misses for the core CPI (+0.9% yoy vs. +1.0% yoy expected) and core-core CPI (+0.3% yoy vs. +0.4% yoy expected) readings. Meanwhile, the UK’s December GfK consumer confidence reading was on the money at -14, the lowest reading since July 2013.

As for what’s been driving the latest leg lower in markets, the trade war between  the US and China escalated further when the Justice Department indicted two Chinese nationals on hacking charges.According to US prosecutors, the two hackers stole data and intellectual property from 45 government agencies and private companies. The Washington Post reported that “more than a dozen international allies are expected to call out Beijing” over similar concerns in connection with the US move. This is another avenue of conflict between developed markets and China, and it has scope to continue to grow and complicate efforts to achieve a tariff détente.

Moving on. Political events in the US surprised again, as President Trump shifted course on the spending bill, reverting to his original position that he will only sign a bill that includes $5 billion of funding for a border wall. Senate Democrats have resisted this request, and have offered only a shortterm continuing resolution instead. The sides continue to negotiate ahead of this evening’s deadline, at which point funding for around two thirds of the discretionary budget will lapse. If unresolved by Monday, a shutdown would furlough around 380,00 workers and would require 420,000 employees to continue working without pay.

Staying with politics, last night it emerged that Defense Secretary Jeff Mattis has resigned from his role citing differences with President Trump. This comes one day after Trump called for the withdrawal of American forces from Syria.

Meanwhile, in commodity markets and specifically the oil market, Bloomberg reported that OPEC+ will give greater clarity on “their strategy to stabilize oil markets” today by listing production cuts agreed by each country.WTI was down another -2.80% yesterday and therefore undid all (and more) of Wednesday’s bounceback. So the story didn’t seem to help at all.

Here in the UK, as expected the final BoE meeting of the year was a bit of a non-event. It was a unanimous decision amongst the MPC to leave policy unchanged with the main development in the statement being a downgrade around the language on global and domestic growth, and also global financial markets.The MPC also highlighted that “Brexit uncertainties have intensified considerably since the Committee’s last meeting” and that “the monetary policy response to Brexit, whatever form it takes, will not be automatic and could be in either direction”. Having touched as high as $1.2707 intraday (+0.75%), Sterling gave up a decent chunk of that move to end at $1.266 and +0.36% on the day.

Speaking of central banks, it was a landmark day of sorts for the Riksbank following the first rate hike since 2011.The repo rate is still negative (-0.25%) however the move was a bit of a surprise with just 10 of the 24 economists surveyed on Bloomberg expecting a hike. The krona gained +0.73% versus the euro to 10.276.

Prior to the BoE we got a surprisingly strong November retail sales report in the UK.Headline sales were reported as rising +1.4% mom (vs. +0.3% expected) while the core ex fuel sales reading also beat to the upside at +1.2% mom (vs. +0.2% expected). That certainly seemed to contribute to the early rise for Sterling. Meanwhile, in the afternoon the latest Philly Fed print for December was disappointing at just +9.4 (vs. +15.0 expected). The reading was down -3.5pts from November and the lowest since August 2016. On the plus side though, both the new orders and employment components rose, while the prices paid component actually fell slightly, albeit from still elevated levels. In other news initial jobless claims printed slightly higher at 214k but the low levels appear to confirm that the move higher in previous weeks was only temporary.

As for the day ahead, this morning we’ll get consumer confidence data prints in Germany and France along with the final Q3 GDP revisions in the latter. Later this morning in the UK we’ll get the November public finances data and final Q3 GDP revisions. This  afternoon in the US we’ve got a packed agenda. First up is the third and final Q3 GDP revisions where no change is expected from the +3.5% qoq saar print. Also due are preliminary November durable and capital goods orders data, while not long after that we get the November PCE report. The consensus is for a +0.2% mom reading which would be enough to push up the annual rate to +1.9% yoy. Finally, we’ll get the final December University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey readings and the December Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey. We should note that today is also a quadruple witching day for stock markets, so it wouldn’t be a great surprise to see a pick-up in volatility towards the end of the session.

See you in 2019… assuming markets can survive that long!!

 

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 20.02 POINTS OR 0.79% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 129.89 POINTS OR 0.51% //The Nikkei closed DOWN 226.39 OR 1.11%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN 0.71%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.9064 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 45.53 dollars per barrel for WTI and 53.34 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED 

//ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.9064AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9110: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

 

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA/

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

 

END

3 C CHINA

China hacked into IBM and HP and then went after their clients.

Trump furious..

(courtesy zerohedge)

China Hacked IBM And HP, Then Went After Their Clients

Just hours after the DOJ issued an indictment of two Chinese hackers who purportedly infiltrated 45 US tech companies and government agencies (including the US Navy), Reuters has published an anonymously sourced report shedding more light on aspects of ‘Operation Cloudhopper’ – the codename for the hacking campaign – that offers some details about how China’s Ministry of State Security infiltrated IBM and HP Enterprise, and used those systems as a “launch pad” to gain access to systems belonging to their clients (which include government agencies and the military).

Hackers

The information reported on ‘Cloudhopper’ reportedly came from US and UK sources. Cloudhopper worked by infiltrating ‘managed service providers’, which are used by clients to manage their servers, network and other IT infrastructure. Reuters said it was unable to confirm the names of other firms breached in ‘Cloudhopper’, according to Reuters.

The breaches reportedly lasted for weeks at a time, and were being investigated as recently as this past summer.

The sources, who were not authorized to comment on confidential information gleaned from investigations into the hacks, said that HPE and International Business Machines Corp were not the only prominent technology companies whose networks had been compromised by Cloudhopper.

Cloudhopper, which has been targeting technology services providers for several years, infiltrated the networks of HPE and IBM multiple times in breaches that lasted for weeks and months, according to another of the sources with knowledge of the matter.

IBM investigated an attack as recently as this summer, and HPE conducted a large breach investigation in early 2017, said the source.

The attackers were persistent, making it difficult to ensure that networks were safe, said another source.

IBM responded to the hacks by installing new hard drives and operating systems on its computers…yet the state-sponsored attackers managed to repeatedly break into the company’s systems.

As one anonymous official explained, these attacks on MSPs are particularly dangerous because they turn the MSPs into ‘launchpads’ for attacks on clients. He referred to it jokingly as “the Walmart approach”.

One senior intelligence official, who declined to name any victims who were breached, said attacks on MSPs were a significant threat because they essentially turned technology companies into launchpads for hacks on clients.

“By gaining access to an MSP, you can in many cases gain access to any one of their customers,” said the official. “Call it the Walmart approach: If I needed to get 30 different items for my shopping list, I could go to 15 different stores or I could go to the one that has everything.”

Representatives for both the US and UK governments declined to comment, saying only that “a number of MSPs had been affected” in the hacks.

Representatives with the FBI and Department of Homeland Security declined to comment. Officials with the U.S. Justice Department and the Chinese embassy in Washington could not immediately be reached for comment.

A British government spokeswoman declined to comment on the identities of companies affected by the Cloudhopper campaign or the impact of those breaches.

“A number of MSPs have been affected, and naming them would have potential commercial consequences for them, putting them at an unfair disadvantage to their competitors,” she said.

Beijing will no doubt be furious at the global coordinated condemnation of its cyberespionage efforts orchestrated by the US, but as more US allies speak out on Thursday, it remains to be seen if China will double-down on its efforts, or pull back. And there’s also the possibility that an angry China retaliates by breaking off trade-war negotiations.

END

China responds to the “baseless” cyber spying accusations of the west…they warn of serious damage to relations..

No kidding..

(courtesy zerohedge)

China Blasts “Baseless” Cyber-Spying Accusations, Warns Of “Serious Damage” To Relations

So much for that “truce”…

Following today’s indictments of two Chinese nationals for cyber espionage (or cyber theft) in which the Trump administration and more than a dozen of its allies condemned Beijing on Thursday over the MSS’s campaign to steal other countries’ trade secrets and advanced technologies, as well as its efforts to compromise sensitive government and corporate computer networks; China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has responded with a terse statement lambasting the US Government.

Chin foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying says in statement that the Chinese government has never participated or supported any stealing of trade secrets (ZH: if it happens, it happens, we never told them to) and urged the U.S. to correct its own cyber espionage wrongdoings and withdraw indictment of Chinese nationals.

Full Statement: (via Google Translate)

Comment on the Mistakes of the US on Cyber ​​Security Issues

The United States fabricated facts about so-called “cyber theft” with groundless accusations about the Chinese on network security issues, on the basis of which two Chinese officials were “prosecuted.”

This move is a serious violation of the basic norms of international relations and seriously damages Sino-US cooperation. The nature is very bad. The Chinese side is resolutely opposed to this and has already made solemn representations to the US.

The Chinese government’s position on cybersecurity issues is consistent and clear. China is a staunch defender of cybersecurity and has consistently opposed and cracked down on any form of cybersecurity.

The Chinese government has never participated in or supported anyone in any way in stealing trade secrets.

For a long time , it has long been an open secret for the relevant departments of the United States to conduct large-scale and organized network theft and monitoring and monitoring activities for foreign governments, enterprises and individuals .

US party with the name of so-called “cyber theft” to the Chinese side groundless accusations , purely falsely accuse , self-deception . China will never accept it.

We urge the US to immediately correct the wrong practices, stop smearing the Chinese side on cyber security issues, and revoke the so-called prosecution of Chinese personnel, so as to avoid serious damage to the relations between the two countries and the cooperation between the two sides in related fields. China will take necessary measures to firmly safeguard China’s cybersecurity and its own interests.

Individual countries such as the United Kingdom have also published rumors about China on cybersecurity issues. They are purely out of thin air and have ulterior motives. We will never accept it and resolutely oppose it.

We urge these countries to respect the facts and stop deliberate defamation of China, so as not to damage their bilateral relations and cooperation with China in important areas.

*  *  *

That is a very aggressive statement in the context of Chinese official documents and raises more than an eyebrow at some of their claims, and threats.

One wonders if the recent weakness in stocks reflects this dramatic breakdown in US-Sino relations as much as the Fed’s tightening stance.

END

this may be a huge story.  The Wall Street journal is reporting that global banks are cutting ties with Huawei.  Chinese media is denying the story. It is probably true and this will be a dagger into the heart of  China.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Chinese Media Deny WSJ Report About Global Banks Cutting Ties With Huawei

As the controversy over the arrest of Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou rages (driven in part by Beijing’s retaliatory arrest of three Canadian citizens living in China) and more US allies agree to limit their exposure to telecoms equipment manufactured by the Chinese giant in accordance with the wishes of the US, the Wall Street Journal has reported on yet another consequence of allegations that Huawei violated US and EU sanctions on Iran: The same global banks that helped facilitate Huawei’s rise into a multinational giant that does business in more than 170 countries are now limiting or cutting their ties with Huawei.

Huawei

According to WSJ, HSBC (the bank that initially flagged potential sanctions violations involving Huawei and its subsidiary, Skycom, to US regulators) and Standard Chartered (another massive British bank with a large book of business in Asia) have decided that they won’t offer any new business or funding to Huawei after determining that the company is too much of a risk.

Two banks that helped power the Chinese company’s rise as a global technology supplier, HSBC Holdings PLC and Standard Chartered PLC, won’t provide it with any new banking services or funding after deciding that Huawei is too high risk, people familiar with those decisions said.

While HSBC made its decision last year, Standard Chartered moved more recently as concerns about Huawei escalated this year from a Justice Department investigation into whether the company violated U.S. sanctions on Iran, some of the people said.

Meanwhile, Citigroup, which continues to offer day-to-day banking services to Huawei, has decided that any new business would be “subject to review.”

A third key bank, Citigroup Inc. continues to provide Huawei with day-to-day banking services outside the U.S., people familiar with that relationship said. New banking business would be subject to review, and Citigroup is monitoring developments in the U.S., the people said.

[…]

Citigroup’s relationship with Huawei has included global transaction banking and trade financing outside of the U.S., in countries such as Mexico, Pakistan and Bangladesh, according to public disclosures and people familiar with the relationship. It also shared the lead role arranging several Huawei loan and bond deals in recent years, Dealogic data shows.

HSBC decided to back away from its relationship with Huawei last year after it flagged the sanctions violations, while StanChart’s decision came more recently.

Standard Chartered recently decided it had to sever business with Huawei, people familiar with the matter said. Its relationship with the company dates back to the 2000s, and includes providing regional and global cash pools that free up excess cash in local Huawei units and let the company pay suppliers in multiple currencies.

HSBC stopped working with Huawei last year, people familiar with the matter said, after the bank and a court-appointed monitor flagged suspicious transactions by the company to U.S. prosecutors in 2016.

The shunning of Huawei by both of these banks shows just how much pressure Western governments are putting on the company, because in the past, Huawei would have been the type of client that either bank “would have bent over backwards for” – particularly because of Huawei’s close ties to the Chinese government, which bankers believe guaranteed a level of stability and helped mitigate risk.

“It’s the kind of client Standard Chartered or HSBC would bend over backwards for,” said a former Standard Chartered executive. “They are everywhere, and need help everywhere.”

However, since at least 2007, some U.S. government officials feared Huawei’s telecommunications gear and security software, if exploited by Beijing, could pose risks to national security.

The wariness of western banks could become a major problem for Huawei because Chinese banks simply can’t offer the level of global banking  support that the company needs.

Huawei, active in about 170 countries, relies on international banks to manage cash, finance trade and fund its operations and investments. For more than a decade, HSBC, Standard Chartered, and Citigroup plugged Huawei into the global financial system as it entered new markets, providing the maker of telecommunications equipment with everything from foreign currencies to bond funding from Western investors.

Chinese banks finance Huawei in some markets but don’t have the reach to service it globally.

But in what would be perhaps the biggest indicator of Huawei’s toxicity, Goldman Sachs opted not to take on Huawei as a client back in 2013 – back when it seemingly had no problem helping facilitate one of the biggest financial frauds in Asian financial history by underwriting  1MDB bond deals.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. considered extending financing to the Chinese company in 2013, people familiar with the matter said, but decided not to, in part because Goldman executives received negative feedback from the U.S. Treasury.

In a rebuttal published Friday, Communist Party mouthpiece the Global Times claimed that the WSJ story is false.

Global Times

@globaltimesnews

#Huawei denied @wsj reports Friday about some global banks breaking ties. “We’re cooperating continuously with our financial partners globally and we value our business relations,” a @Huawei spokesperson told the Global Times.

But as scrutiny of the Asia telecoms giant intensifies, if western banks haven’t entirely cut it off from the financial system already, it will likely happen soon enough. But instead of hamstringing Huawei, this will likely create more incentive for China, Russia and others to build out their alternative to the US dollar-based global trade-settlement system.

 

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

EUROPE

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

TURKEY/SYRIA/USA/RUSSIA/IRAN

The USA needs Turkey is sanctions will have a strong effect on Iran.  The USA announced a pull out of Syria which Turkey felt relieved that it would not have to confront the USA as Turkey fights the Kurds in the north of Syria.  Turkey announced today that they will circumvent sanctions on Iran and thus a severe blow to the USA. Turkey has now completely faced towards Russia and China and away from the USA

(courtesy zerohedge)

Turkey’s Erdogan Vows “All Measures” To Circumvent Sanctions On Iran

Following Wednesday’s unexpected and dramatic full and “immediate” withdrawal of all US forces from Syria, Turkey has announced it will not play ball on Iran sanctions. According to a translation of the Turkish president’s words on Thursday during a previously planned summit with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani in Ankara, journalist Abdullah Bozkurt reports, “Turkish president Erdogan saysTurkey won’t support US sanctions on Iran which he claims puts regional security and stability at risk, vows to take all measures to minimize impact of sanctions on trade between the two countries, pledges support to Iran in difficult times.” 

Presidents Erdogan and Rouhani at the Turkish presidential complex in Ankara on December 20, 2018, via the AFPThis is huge given that the complete USreversal in policy comes following a phone call last week between President Trump and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, wherein Erdogan is reported to have pressed the Kurdish problem and presence of US troops. The United States needs Turkey as a key regional economy if it hopes to effectively strangle Iran through sanctions. Without Erdogan, analysts believe, Iran will be able to weather the storm long term.

Embedded video

Abdullah Bozkurt@abdbozkurt

Turkish president #Erdogan says #Turkey won’t support US sanctions on #Iran which he claims puts regional security and stability at risk, vows to take all measures to minimise impact of sanctions on trade between the two countries, pledges support to Iran in difficult times.

For the past week Erdogan has threatened to launch a full-scale cross border assault on US-backed Kurdish forces in Syria, which Turkey has long considered a terrorist extension of the outlawed PKK. Currently Turkey’s military is reportedly mustering forces and tanks along deployment points at the Syrian border. Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar has said the military is “intensely” preparing for a major operation against Syrian Kurds in Manbij, Aleppo Governorate, and to the east of the Euphrates. Turkish Anadolu Agency reported the defense minister promised to “bury” the Syrian Kurds.

Prior to Trump’s announced Syria pullout, the promised large-scale assault and ongoing future operations would have eventually brought American troops and advisers under fire, who’ve found themselves in the awkward position since entering Syria of training Syrian Kurdish militias on the one hand, and coordinating broadly with NATO ally Turkey on the other.

However, Trump’s announced troop withdrawal has defused the crisis of American troops being caught in the middle, and along with it the possibility of a US-Turkey clash. Thus the US withdrawal is considered a major concession for Erdogan, which no doubt Trump was hoping to maintain as a key ally against Iran. That hope has now been dashed with Erdogan’s speech Thursday.

Joshua Landis

@joshua_landis

Turkey has undermined US policy of confronting Iran. Why? B/c US attacked Turkey by arming & training YPG/Kurds. Erdogan’s drip, drip Khashoggi strategy brilliant. Kicked legs out fr under Trump’s Saudi policy. Congress is voting against Saudi. US needs TR on board to hurt Iran.

This also comes a day after the US approved the sale of $3.5bn in missiles to Turkey amid negotiations for Ankara to buy anti-air defense missiles from Russia. On Wednesday the State Department informed Congress that the plan includes transfer of 80 Patriot missiles, 60 PAC-3 missile interceptors and related equipment. A number of analysts were quick to note the deal had been firmed up immediately prior to Trump’s announced Syria pullout.

But despite the multi-billion dollar weapons sale, hawks in Congress and in the president’s own administration will use Erdogan’s Thursday announcement to “stand by Iran” as fodder for arguing against bringing the troops home, and continuing Syria ground operations in order to counter Iranian expansion.

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

MALAYSIA/GOLDMAN SACHS

this ought to go over well with our crooked friends over at Goldman Sachs.  Malaysia is demanding $7.5 billion in reparations

(courtesy zerohedge)

Malaysia Demands Goldman Pay $7.5B In 1MDB “Reparations”

Malaysia is seeking a massive financial penalty from Goldman Sachs after filing criminal charges against the bank alleging that it lied in deal documents and knowing enabled Malaysian government officials and one corrupt financier to steal billions of dollars from the Malaysian people through 1MDB, the sovereign wealth fund that is at the center of one of the biggest financial frauds in history.

In comments to the Financial Times published Friday, Malaysian Finance Minister Lim Guan Eng said Goldman should pay reparations in excess of $7.5 billion in connection with three bond deals it underwrote for 1MDB (deals that netted the bank a staggering $600 million in fees, well above the typical 1% to 2% fees that are typically collected in these types of deals). The $7.5 billion figure is the largest floated so far by Malaysia, which has charged three of the bank’s Asian subsidiaries, as well as two Goldman bankers, in its criminal probe into 1MDB.

Malaysia

Finance Minister Lim Guan Eng

The $7.5 billion figure includes the entire $600 million fee collected by the bank, the $6.5 billion raised in the offerings (most of which was looted despite being earmarked for ‘infrastructure projects’) and the spread between the market rate and the above-market coupon on the 10-year 1MDB bonds.

Goldman responded by once again deflecting blame to the Malaysia officials involved with the deal.

“The 1MDB bond offerings were meant to raise money to benefit Malaysia; instead, a huge portion of those funds were stolen for the benefit of members of the Malaysian government and their associates.”

At the very least, Lim said Goldman should pay the entirety of the $1.8 billion the bank has set aside for legal expenses stemming from 1MDB.

The finance minister said that reparations from the bank should at the very least be more than $1.8bn — the sum Goldman told investors it had set aside to face potential losses related to 1MDB legal proceedings, in addition to the money it had previously earmarked for such matters.

“Their figure is $1.8bn. Ours is $7.5bn,” Lim said.

Malaysia’s attorney general, Tommy Thomas, said when the criminal charges were first unveiled that the bank should pay reparations “well in excess” of the $2.7 billion Malaysia says was embezzled from the fund (the DOJ has used a much higher figure, $4.5 billion), along with the $600 million fee.

But this wasn’t the only bad news for Goldman and its CEO David Solomon, whose role in the scandal is under scrutiny since it came to light that he had served on one of the partner committees that helped greenlight the 1MDB deals (while his predecessor, Lloyd Blankfein, reportedly participated in meetings with Malaysia’s former prime minister – who is facing criminal charges from his role in the fraud – and even held a one-on-one sit down with Jho Low, the fugitive financier who helped organize the deals).

Singapore has reportedly expanded its probe into the fraud to examine the role of Goldman’s local subsidiary in fund flows related to the deal, according to Bloomberg. The investigation “opens a potential new battle front for Goldman” which is already fighting authorities in the US and Malaysia.

Singapore’s widened probe opens a potential new battle front for Goldman, less than a week after Malaysia filed the first criminal charges against the firm over a relationship that spawned one of the biggest scandals in its history. Singapore is coordinating closely with the U.S. Justice Department, which is also investigating Goldman and has filed criminal charges against two former senior bankers at the firm, the people said.

The firm said it “continues to cooperate” with all investigations.

“The firm continues to cooperate with all authorities investigating this matter,” Goldman spokesman Edward Naylor said. Singapore authorities didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. John Marzulli, a spokesman for Brooklyn U.S. Attorney Richard Donoghue, whose office is prosecuting the case, declined to comment.

This is just the latest evidence that, for Goldman, the 1MDB comeuppance – which many fear could undo all of the bank’s “reputational gains” since the financial crisis (where it was first slapped with the nickname “Vampire Squid”) – has become the holiday gift that keeps on giving.

end

7  OIL ISSUES

8. EMERGING MARKETS

Venezuela

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00

Euro/USA 1.1424 DOWN .0033 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES ALL RED

 

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 111.22  UP 0.048 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL

GBP/USA 1.2664 DOWN    0.0003  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3539  UP .0041 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 75 basis point, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1461/ Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED DOWN 20.02 POINTS OR 0.79%

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 129.89 POINTS OR 0.51%

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN  0.71% /EUROPEAN BOURSES RED

 

 

 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this FRIDAY morning CLOSED  DOWN 226.39 POINTS OR 1.11%

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED RED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 129.89 POINTS OR 0.51% 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 20.02  POINTS OR 0.79%

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN  0.71%

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 226.39POINTS OR 1.11%

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 1260.10

silver:$14.69

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.79% !!! UP 2 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

The 30 yr bond yield 3.02 UP 1  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 96.55 UP 28 CENT(S) from  THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.69% UP 3    in basis point(s) yield from THURSDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.05%  UP 2  BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/EXTREMELY VOLATILE YESTERDAY…

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.40% UP 2  IN basis point yield from THURSDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.83 UP 9     POINTS in basis point yield from THURSDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 143 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES UP TO +.25%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.58% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1404 DOWN  .0053 or 53 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 111.20 DOWN  0.030 OR 3 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2664 DOWN .0004( POUND DOWN 4  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 60 basis points to 1.3556

 

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The USA/Yuan,CNY closed UP AT 6.9065-  ON SHORE  (YUAN UP)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.9154(  YUAN UP)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.2978

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.05%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 4 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 2.80 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.04 UP 6 in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 96.68 UP 40 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 4:00 PM 

London: CLOSED DOWN 2.30 POINTS OR 0.03%

German Dax : CLOSED UP 10.46 POINTS  OR 0.10%
Paris Cac CLOSED DOWN 8.54 POINTS OR 0.13%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 46.10POINTS OR 0.54%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN: 179.71 POINTS OR 0.97%/

 

 

WTI Oil price; 46.12 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 54/16 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    68.84  THE CROSS HIGHER BY .51 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE LOWER BY 51 BASIS PTS)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA:  5.2978 PER ONE USA DOLLAR.

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES +.25 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :45.38

 

BRENT :53/48

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.78%…deadly..strong indicator of recession .

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.03%/.

 

 

 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1359 ( DOWN 97 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:111.31 UP 0.136 (YEN DOWN 14 BASIS POINTS/ .

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.06 UP 73 cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.2628 DOWN 40 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 5.3132

the Russian rouble:  68.97 down .65 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( down 65 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar: 1.3598 DOWN 98 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 6.9065  (ONSHORE)

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH):  6.9237 (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.25%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 414.23 POINTS OR 1.81%

 

NASDAQ closed DOWN 145.41 POINTS OR 2.99%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  30.08 CLOSED UP 1.71 

 

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.823%  .LIBOR  RATES ARE RISING/GIGANTIC RISE TODAY

FROM 2.789

 

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY

 

“Panic In The Air” – Stunned Traders Speechless At The Carnage

CNN’s Fear & Greed Index just hit 5… an all-time record low (most extreme fear)…

And the following provides a simple analogy for what happens when one market snaps…

Tough week in China…

European stocks had an ugly week…

And, if this holds up next week, will be the worst year for EU stocks since 2008…

But since the trade war truce, US equities have dramatically underperformed…

It was a total shitshow in US equities – Dow, S&P, Trannies down around 6% on the week, and Nasdaq and Small Caps down a shocking 8% or so…

Not decoupled from the rest of the world after all…

 

Worst week for Dow, Nasdaq since Oct 2008 (5th week lower in last 6)

  • Worst week for S&P since Aug 2011 (5th week lower in last 6)

Just 300 more points lower in the S&P to catch down to financial conditions fair value…

  • Worst week for Russell 2000 since Sept 2011 (5th week lower in last 6)

From the 52-week highs:

  • Dow -16%
  • S&P -17%
  • Nasdaq 100 -21% – BEAR
  • Nasdaq Composite -22% – BEAR
  • Trannies -23.6% – BEAR
  • Small Caps -26% – BEAR

First it was the Russell 2000. Then the Nasdaq Composite. Today it’s the Nasdaq-100 that crossed a bear-market threshold by retreating 20% from a peak. The index’s record was set Aug. 29, the same day as the broader Nasdaq index.

Why today? Blame the FAANG stocks. Facebook, Amazon.com, Apple, Netflix and Google/Alphabet together account for more than two-thirds of the Nasdaq-100’s loss.

 

Since The Fed, Gold, the dollar, and the long-bond are all up around 0.5%, while stocks collapsed around 6%…

 

Year-to-Date it’s carnage with Trannies and Small Caps down 16%, Dow and S&P down 10%, and Nasdaq Composite down 8%!!

 

On the day, we can see where Fed’s Williams tried desperately to jawbone markets higher – but ended up admitting that the balance sheet runoff is on auto-pilot…

and then Navarro comments into the bell did not help…

Bank stocks were a bloodbath – with Regionals have dumped the entire Trump Bump…

 

Goldman Sachs was a disaster – down over 5% today alone (down 42% from highs)…

 

VIX term structure remains inverted and spot VIX topped 31 for the first time since Feb today…

 

Under the covers, there are some extremes:

Put/Call (Open Interest) has collapsed…

 

Nasdaq/NYSE New Lows is soaring…

Which, as Bloomberg reports, is ominous at best.  Since 1984, there were only eight days when a bigger proportion of shares did so, according to Sundial Capital Research. Two of them were in 1987 — during the famous Black Monday crash, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 23 percent in one day, and then again during the following session. The rest were in the aftermath of the collapse of Lehman Brothers in October and November 2008.

There are more than hints of panic in the air,” Jason Goepfert, president of Sundial Capital Research, wrote in a note Thursday.

There is clear evidence of wholesale selling on a level we rarely see.”

And finally, the regime has changed dramatically with a mass exodus of smart money flows…

None of this was helped the largest market cap company in the world suffering a death cross…

 

Credit markets were a bloodbath this week with loans collapsing bidless…

And HY spreads exploding…

 

Bonds & Stocks were dumped the last two days…

 

Treasury yields ended the week notably lower (though not as much as one would expect given the carnage in stocks, since we suspect some forced selling by Risk-Parity funds took some of the buying away)…

 

10Y Yields closed below the key 2.80% level…

 

And if cyclical stocks (relative to defensives) are right, Treasury yields have a long way to fall…

 

The Dollar Index slipped on the week, but the last three days (post Powell) have been chaotic…

 

Cryptos drifted lower today but had a huge week…Bitcoin’s best week since Feb

 

Gold and Silver managed gains on the week but copper and even more so crude were clubbed like baby seals…

 

Gold pushed up to its 200DMA…

 

Silver underperformed gold…

 

WTI Crude tumbled to a $45 handle today…

*  *  *

Finally, we note the surge in USA Sovereign credit risk as the government heads for shutdown (and debt ceiling debacles)…

On the macro side, things are not awesome…

But it’s not just the sovereign that is in trouble…

David Rosenberg@EconguyRosie

The profits recession’s already here. The GDP data showed that National Accounts earnings after-tax and w/ IVA & CCA are up 19.6% YoY as of Q3. Strip out these goodies and pre-tax profits are -0.3%. My advice is to fade the cheerleaders that populate the segments on bubblevision.

47 people are talking about this

Still… the worst December since The Great Depression – probably nothing, right?

Actually, there are over $17 trillion reasons to worry!!

Who could have seen that coming?

We give the final word to none other than Dennis Gartman who said this morning – “Stock prices continue to plunge and there is nothing else that one can say other than that… the internals remain manifestly, harshly, overwhelmingly, one sidedly, shockingly, dismayingly, margin call-creatingly bearish”

market trading

Insane: stocks soar after nY Fed Williams says that they are “listening to markets carefully” and will adjust views based out outlook

the gain did not last long.

 

Stocks Soar After NY Fed’s Williams Says “Listening To Markets Carefully”, “Will Adjust Views Based On Outlook”

One day after former NY Fed president  Bill Dudley essentially told Bloomberg TV that the Fed would hike until something breaks as there was “not much evidence that monetary policy is too tight” pushing markets sharply lower, the current NY Fed president, and former Fed uberdove, John Williams reversed the narrative and sent stock soaring after a series of dovish comments on CNBC, saying that the “Fed is listening to markets very carefully” and is “hearing market concerns about risks to the economy.”

Williams said that since the Fed is moving to data-dependent mode, that means “listening to markets” and added that the Fed is ready to “reassess and reevaluate our views” noting that further hikes are not a commitment or a promise while adding that the Fed is attuned to both the possibility that the outlook may change and also attuned to “downside risks.”

Adding more fuel to the dovish fire, the uber-dove also said that the plan to say on the current path “assumes the economy remains strong” and that the Fed will “adjust its views based on the data and outlook.”

Finally, confirming what Powell said three weeks ago, Williams said that “we are now at the bottom range of estimates of the neutral rate”, while adding – redundantly – that the Fed “wants a strong economy and the expansion to continue.”

The one hawkish comment was that the Fed would not reconsider a balance sheet unwind at this point, especially as the Fed expects inflation to be around 2% in 2019, even as he is “hearing concerns about what tariffs mean for the economy” and as a result the “outlook for global growth has become somewhat slower.”

So while Williams did not say anything new per se, the underlining of the data dependence, and the confirmation that the Fed is closely looking at stocks was enough to send the ES soaring 1.5% higher, up 32 points to 2,500, with the Dow up some 350 points...

… as the USDJPY surges amid a broad “risk on” wave.

However, Williams then spoiled the party a little by confirming that the balance sheet is indeed on auto-pilot.

Notably stocks reversed after the machines had ramped them above the ‘pin’ levels of 2505.

 

 

 

market data/

The final estimate of the third quarter GDP has been lowered to 3.4%.  This was the quarter which has the full effect on Trump’s stimulus i.e. tax cuts etc.  GDP growth is now expected to moderate into the 2% range

(courtesy zerohedge)

Q3 GDP Revised Lower To 3.4% As Ex-Inventories GDP Rises Just 1.0%

With the US economy firing on all four cylinders heading into the 3rd quarter, largely thanks to the latent effects from Trump’s fiscal stimulus, the BEA released its final estimate of Q3 GDP which confirmed what we learned first two months ago, and was revised last month, namely that the US economy grew at an annualized rate in the mid-3% range, in line with both expectations and the first estimate released a month ago, although the final estimate showed a modest slowdown to the prior revision, with Q3 GDP now said to have grown 3.4%, below the 3.5% 2nd revision and consensus estimate.

Combined with the 4.2% GDP growth in the second quarter,, the results capped the best back-to-back quarters since 2014. At the same time, growth is projected to moderate significantly this quarter, with estimates now running in the mid to low 2% range. Furthermore, just like last month, a quick look at the internals reveals some ugly details below the surface.

While household spending remained strong, rising 3.5% after 3.8% in Q2, the largest increase since Q4 2014, it shrank from both the first estimate of 4.0%, and the second estimate of 3.6%, and missed expectations of 3.6%, contributing 2.37% of the bottom line 3.360% GDP print (below the 2.45% in the second estimate), the main reason why the US economy grew as fast as it did in the third quarter was a build up in inventories, which contributed even more than was previously estimate, or some 2.33%, or 69% of the bottom line number. This was the biggest quarterly inventory stocking since the last quarter of 2011, and also implies that excluding Inventories, GDP rose a paltry 1.0% in the quarter.

Another change from the second GDP estimate came from a slightly weaker business investment offsetting the increase in inventories, while most other categories were in line with earlier readings.

Net exports subtracted 1.99% from growth, while inventories provided a 2.33 point boost.

All other components of GDP were ugly, with nonresidential fixed investment, or spending on equipment, structures and intellectual property shrinking to 2.5% in 3Q after rising a blistering 8.7% in the prior quarter. Government spending added 0.44 point to growth, unchanged from the prior revision.

Here is a breakdown of the less than stellar components:

  • Fixed Investment added 0.21%, down from 0.25% in the prior revision
  • Exports subtracted -0.55%, better than the -0.62% previously estimated
  • Imports subtracted -1.37%, in line with the 1.36% reported last

In other words, between CapEx and Net Trade, the US economy actually contracted by 1.8%.

The final offset was government consumption which added 0.44% in Q3, resulting in the following breakdown

Today’s report also showed that corporate pretax earnings rose 10.4% annualized from a year earlier, the most in six years, after a 7.3% advance in Q2:

  • Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations increased 6.4% after increasing 4.2%.
  • Profits of domestic financial corporations decreased 1.3% after increasing 3.7%.
  • Profits from the rest of the world increased 0.3% after decreasing 0.9%.

Other details from today’s GDP report showed that the economy may have indeed peaked, with core PCE rising 1.6% in 3Q after rising 2.1% prior quarter, slightly beating expectations of a 1.5% print. The GDP price index also beat expectations, printing at 1.8% in 3Q after rising 3.0% prior quarter.

Meanwhile, rising risks to the outlook include the escalating trade war with China, a slowing global demand (see today’s Tiffany’s results) and rising borrowing costs, while the boost from President Donald Trump’s fiscal stimulus is expected to end next year.

end
After a lousy October, the pundits were hoping for a good improvement.  It disappointed them with business spending tumbling in November
another good indicator that the economy is faltering
(courtesy zerohedge)

Durable Goods Orders Disappoint – Business Spending Tumbles In November

After collapsing in October, Durable Goods New Orders were expected to rebound modestly in November and it did – but disappointed, rising just 0.8% MoM (vs +1.6% exp).

However, under the hood, everything missed expectations and tumbled.

  • Core (ex Transports) Durable Goods dropped 0.3% MoM
  • Capital Goods Orders Non-Defense, Ex-Air (Capital Spending Proxy) dropped 0.6% MoM
  • and Shipments dropped 0.1% MoM

This is the 3rd monthly drop in capex of the last 4 months…

This is the worst 4-month drop since January and there seems to be a limit to what the economy will bear…

end
The next two data points are perhaps the most important for us.  Both income and spending (which is 70% of GDP) disappoints again.  The savings rate plunges to its lowest level since 2003 as consumers are just maxed out
(courtesy zerohedge)

Income, Spending Disappoint As Savings Rate Plunges To Lowest Since 2013

Both income and spending growth accelerated in October at the fastest rate in 2018 but were expected to slow in November and did so, with personal income up just 0.2% MoM in November, while spending rose 0.4% MoM (a big slowdown from the 0.8% upwardly revised October print).

And year-over-year growth in both income and spending slowed…

While spending growth outpaces income growth, it was private wages that decelerated notably (+4.5%, vs +4.8% last month) with government wages +2.8%, vs +2.8% last month.

And so with spending outpacing incomes once again, Americans’ savings rate plunged to its lowest since March 2013…

 

end

Although the U. of Michigan confidence data had a slight uptick, the future expectations or hope hit a 6 month low

This is a soft data entry point

(courtesy zerohedge)

UMich Confidence ‘Hope’ Hits 6-Month Low

A modest rebound in the headline UMich confidence data hid a divergent view between ‘current conditions’ (up and near cycle highs) and ‘hope’ for future expectations down at 6-month lows.

Across the income spectrum, poor Americans were more miserable in November while middle- and upper-income Americans saw confidence rise…

“ While the plunge in stock prices has recently garnered the most attention in the national press, consumers have focused more on their concerns about income and job prospects,” Richard Curtin, director of the University of Michigan consumer survey, said in a statement.

But we suspect next month’s UMich could be ugly:

“Surprisingly, even in the last week of the survey, falling stock prices were reported by just 12% as a primary concern about recent economic developments. This may reflect their initial dismissal as another indication of the heightened volatility of stock prices, and not signal an emerging downtrend. While next month’s data may reflect increased concerns, it has been news of changing job and income prospects that have been of the greatest concern to consumers.”

Inflation expectations for the year ahead fell to 2.7 percent from 2.8 percent in November, while the inflation rate over the next five to 10 years was seen at 2.5 percent. That longer-term reading, though, was higher than the 2.4 percent seen in this month’s preliminary survey.

Finally we noted that buying conditions for homes and autos slumped…

USA ECONOMIC STORIES OF INTEREST

Mattis announces that he quits as he calls out tensions with Trump over respecting allies!

(courtesy zerohedge)

SWAMP STORIES

It is reported that Mueller may submit his Russia probe as soon as February

(courtesy zerohedge)

Mueller May Submit Russia Probe Report As Soon As February: NBC

Days after the sentencing of former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn was delayed until at least March, NBC News is reporting that Special Counsel Robert Mueller is finally planning to submit his report on the Russia probe to the Attorney General as soon as February.

Special counsel Robert Mueller is nearing the end of his historic investigation into Russian election interference and is expected to submit a confidential report to the attorney general as early as mid-February, government officials and others familiar with the situation tell NBC News.

“They clearly are tying up loose ends,” said a lawyer who has been in contact with the Mueller team.

The sources either did not know or would not say whether Mueller has answered the fundamental question he was hired to investigate: Whether Trump or anyone around him conspired with the Russian intelligence operations to help his campaign.

President Trump has said his legal team is preparing a response to the Mueller report, though it’s unclear when that will be ready. Though it’s important to take this report with a grain of salt. After all, reports out earlier this year suggested that Mueller would be done with his report shortly after the midterms. Yet the investigation – which has gone on for more than 18 months – has dragged on.

 

-END-

The shutdown could last a long time as every Democrat in the House voted no. Let us see what happens in the Senate.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Warns Shutdown Will Last “For A Very Long Time” If Dems Vote ‘No’ On The Wall

One day after the House passed a spending bill that included $5.7 billion in funding for the president’s border wall (over the objections of Nancy Pelosi, who famously declared during last week’s contentious meeting with the president that the votes simply weren’t there), President Trump, who is insisting that he won’t sign a spending bill unless it includes funding for his border wall (after briefly ‘caving’ on the wall fight earlier this week), tweeted this morning to urge Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to fight for the border wall “as hard as he fought for anything”.

After the spending bill passed the House, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer insisted that it wouldn’t pass the Senate. Trump wants McConnell to change that.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Senator Mitch McConnell should fight for the Wall and Border Security as hard as he fought for anything. He will need Democrat votes, but as shown in the House, good things happen. If enough Dems don’t vote, it will be a Democrat Shutdown! House Republicans were great yesterday!

The president also took a swipe at intransigent Dems who insist that his border wall won’t effectively reduce illegal migration (citing the old ’31-foot-ladder’ argument), with Trump insisting that “it’s like the wheel, there is nothing better.” He also once again cited Israel’s walls along Palestinian territory, which Trump claimed are “99.9% successful.”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

The Democrats are trying to belittle the concept of a Wall, calling it old fashioned. The fact is there is nothing else’s that will work, and that has been true for thousands of years. It’s like the wheel, there is nothing better. I know tech better than anyone, & technology…..

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

…..on a Border is only effective in conjunction with a Wall. Properly designed and built Walls work, and the Democrats are lying when they say they don’t. In Israel the Wall is 99.9% successful. Will not be any different on our Southern Border! Hundreds of $Billions saved!

But regardless of what happens in the Senate, Trump wants Republicans in the House to know that he’s “very proud” of them and their accomplishments in passing the bill.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

No matter what happens today in the Senate, Republican House Members should be very proud of themselves. They flew back to Washington from all parts of the World in order to vote for Border Security and the Wall. Not one Democrat voted yes, and we won big. I am very proud of you!

Because even Ronald Reagan tried and failed to build a border wall.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Even President Ronald Reagan tried for 8 years to build a Border Wall, or Fence, and was unable to do so. Others also have tried. We will get it done, one way or the other!

If Democrats vote no on the wall (and yes for open borders and crime) Trump warned there will be a shut down that will last “for a very long time.”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

The Democrats, whose votes we need in the Senate, will probably vote against Border Security and the Wall even though they know it is DESPERATELY NEEDED. If the Dems vote no, there will be a shutdown that will last for a very long time. People don’t want Open Borders and Crime!

And as if it wasn’t clear enough already…

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Shutdown today if Democrats do not vote for Border Security!

If nothing else, more denizens of the Washington media sphere are accepting that – if nothing else – at least that much is true.

Jake Sherman

@JakeSherman

As I think more and more about this shutdown, the more I think it could last some time.

It doesnt seem likely that it will be avoided today. Monday Tuesday — people will be away.

Buckle up

end
SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
and special thanks to Chris Powell of GATA for sending this down for us:
@realDonaldTrump: Does the USA want to be the Policeman of the Middle East, getting NOTHING but spending precious lives and trillions of dollars protecting others who, in almost all cases, do not appreciate what we are doing? Do we want to be there forever? Time for others to finally fight…..
     So hard to believe that Lindsey Graham would be against saving soldier lives & billions of $$$. Why are we fighting for our enemy, Syria, by staying & killing ISIS for them, Russia, Iran & other locals? Time to focus on our Country & bring our youth back home where they belong!
@WSJ: Trump orders more than 7,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan to return home, U.S. official says  [About half of the 14k+ troops there – If 17 years aren’t enough to succeed, how many more are needed?]
Neocons and elements of the Deep State, let alone military contractors and their lobbyists, are livid with Trump for removing US troops from Syria.  If DJT pulls troops out of Afghanistan, the perpetual war advocates and beneficiaries will lose their minds – and their gravitas.
Neocons, Deep State elements and their associates will increase their attacks on Trump.  Perhaps DJT, because most Republicans voiced support for Mueller, is engaging in some retaliation.  Will this lead to compromise or more Deep State attacks on Trump?
Trump announced that Gen. Mattis will retire as Secretary of Defense at the end of February.  Admiral Rodgers, “come on down!’”
WaPo: Read the Jim Mattis resignation letter
Because you have the right to a Secretary of Defense whose views are better aligned with yours on these and other subjects, I believe it is right for me to step down from my position…
@ABC: Sen. Marco Rubio on Mattis resignation letter: “It makes it abundantly clear that we are headed towards a series of grave policy errors which will endanger our nation, damage our alliances & empower our adversaries.”  http://abcn.ws/2J0gebC
@Gingrich_of_PA: Insiders reported secret Senate/Donor Class meetings after the midterms. The mission they agreed on was to “put blood in the water” in DC for Trump. What you’re seeing this past week is the beginning of the insurgency. It involved members of his cabinet, as well.
A dangerous game of high intrigue is now underway in Washington, D.C.  PS: Pelosi and Schumer support Mattis/keeping troops in Syria [Probably just to be anti-DJT]!  A 2020 issue has been framed.
Paul Ryan Aide and Rep. Adam Kinzinger Were Early Recipients of Steele Dossier, Documents Sayhttps://dailycaller.com/2018/12/19/christopher-steele-dossier-paul-ryan/
@NBCNews: Special Counsel Robert Mueller may submit report to attorney general as soon as mid-February, sources say
@GeorgePapa19: When my Capitol Hill testimony is made public, it’s going to rock this country! So much to be revealed. Timing is everything.
END

Trump Pulls Out of Syria, Market Meltdown, 2019 Judgement

By Greg Hunter On December 21, 2018 In Weekly News Wrap-Ups

President Trump abruptly decided to pull U.S. troops out of Syria and ordered an “evacuation” of all State Department employees. He also ordered troops home from Afghanistan. This was followed by an abrupt resignation from Defense Secretary General Jim Mattis. What’s going on? Who knows, but in a new poll, 80% of Americans agree with the move.

The markets continued to meltdown after the Federal Reserve decided to raise a key interest rate another quarter of a percent. Some market experts, who have been featured on USAWatchdog.com, say the fall is far from over.

When will the Deep State officials, who tried to remove President Trump from office in a failed coup, be brought to justice? Many say 2019 is the year the hammer of justice falls on the wicked.

Join Greg Hunter as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-up.

.

(To Donate to USAWatchdog.com Click Here)

After the Interview:

 

 

Alex Newman from The New American will be the guest for the “Early Sunday Release.”

He will talk about the Deep State’s fight to control humanity on a global scale and how people are fighting back.

-END- 

 

I WILL SEE YOU ON MONDAY
H

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