DEC 26/DOW UP OVER 1084 POINTS/NASDAQ UP 361 POINTS/GOLD UP 15 CENTS TO $1269.95 WITH SILVER THE STANDOUT RISING BY 27 CENTS TO $15.04/IN ACCESS MARKET: GOLD DOWN TO 1266.50 BUT SILVER REMAINS CONSTANT..ALL OF THIS WAS DONE IN A VERY ILLIQUID MARKET/A VERY ABYSMAL 5 YR TREASURY AUCTION WHICH ATTRACTED MUCH FEWER BIDS AND A HIGHER TAIL IN YIELDS///

 

 

 

GOLD: $1269.95 UP $0.15 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver:   $15.04 UP 27 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  1266.50

 

silver: $15.04

 

The markets exploded northbound today as the PPT did their stuff.  Whenever they meet they always trash gold and silver

It just did not work too well today on the precious metals front. The markets were very illiquid and as such very easy to manipulate values.

I will adjust GLD/SLV and Sprott numbers later tonight

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold and silver:

DEC

 

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  DEC CONTRACT: 17 NOTICE(S) FOR 1700 OZ (0.052 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  7439 NOTICES FOR 743900 OZ  (23.138TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR DECEMBER

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  NIL  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 4321 for 21,605,000

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE  $3736:  down 8

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $3760  UP 22 

 

end

 

XXXX

again either JPMorgan or Goldman Sachs take a huge issance (stopping) of gold at the comex.

today’  JPMorgan  5/17 contracts

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: DECEMBER 2018 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,267.500000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 12/24/2018 DELIVERY DATE: 12/27/2018
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
323 C HSBC 1
661 C JP MORGAN 5
737 C ADVANTAGE 17 11
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 17 17
MONTH TO DATE: 7,439

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST FELL BY AN UNUSUAL SIZED  228 CONTRACTS FROM 173,997 DOWN TO 173,685 DESPITE MONDAY’S STRONG 12 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEXTODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM  AUGUST’S  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WE NOW HAVE JUST LESS THAN 22 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A TINY SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

175 EFP’S FOR DECEMBER AND 0 FOR MARCH AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 175 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 175 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 175 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 0.875MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 12 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST SIX MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOVEMBER AND

NOW 21.665 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF DEC: 25,693 CONTRACTS (FOR 17 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 25,693 CONTRACTS) OR 128.46MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1511 CONTRACTS OR 7.556 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF DEC:  128.46 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 18.35% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:           2,805.52    MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018:                                              236.879     MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018:                                               244.95       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018:                                        236.67       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL 2018:                                           385.75        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MAY 2018:                                             210.05        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JUNE 2018:                                           345.43         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JULY 2018:                                            172.84          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR AUGUST 2018:                                      205.23          MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR SEPTEMBER 2018:                                 167,05          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR OCTOBER 2018:                                     224.875        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR NOVEMBER /2018:                                 247.18         MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A TINY SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 228 DESPITE THE 12 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX //MONDAY..THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A TINY SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 175 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE LOST A TINY SIZED: 29 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 175 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 228 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 12 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $14.77 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. .868 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 124% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT DEC MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR NIL OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./AND NOW DEC. AT 21.665 MILLION OZ
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 9730 CONTRACTS UP TO 442,727 WITH THE GAIN IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(A RISE IN PRICE OF $15.15//.MONDAY’S TRADING) 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A GOOD  SIZED 5398 CONTRACTS:

 

DECEMBER HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 5398 CONTACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 442,727. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN STRONG SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 15,128 CONTRACTS:  9730 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 5398 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN: 15,128 CONTRACTS OR 1,512,800 OZ = 47.05 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS VERY STRONG DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ YESTERDAY TO THE TUNE OF  $15.15

 

 

 

 

MONDAY, WE HAD 10,412 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF DEC : 150,190 CONTRACTS OR 15,019,000 OZ OR 467.15TONNES (17 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 8834 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 17 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 467.15 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 467.15/2550 x 100% TONNES = 18.31% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN DECEMBER ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE:     7245.09  TONNES   *SURPASSED ANNUAL PROD’N

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018:           653.22  TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018:         649.45 TONNES  (20 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018:             741.89 TONNES  (22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR APRIL 2018:                 713.84 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MAY 2018:                   693.80 TONNES ( 22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JUNE 2018                      650.71 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JULY 2018                       605.5 TONNES     (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR AUG. 2018                      488.54  TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR SEPT 2018                       470.64 TONNES   (19 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR OCT. 2018                        543.92 TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR NOV 2018:                        552.88 TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR DEC  2018                                                    (20 TRADING DAYS)

TOTAL FOR 2018

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

Result: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 9730 WITH THE GAIN IN PRICING ($10.15) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK MONDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 5398 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 5398 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 15,343 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

5343 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 9745 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 47.05 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS MONSTROUS  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE GAIN OF $15.15 IN MONDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX

 

 

we had: 17 notice(s) filed upon for 1700 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD UP $0.15 TODAY 

 

 

NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/GLD INVENTORY   774.14 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 774.14 tonnes.

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS  TODAY:

 

 

NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.223 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A TINY SIZED 204 CONTRACTS from 173,913 DOWN TO 173,685  AND MOVING FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

175 CONTRACTS FOR DECEMBER. 0 CONTRACTS FOR MARCH AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 175 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 204 CONTRACTS TO THE 175 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A TINY LOSS  OF 53 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 0.265 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER. AND NOW 21.665 MILLION OZ  STANDING IN DECEMBER.

 

 

RESULT: A TINY SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 12 CENT PRICING LOSS THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// MONDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER TINY SIZE 175 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)MONDAY MORNING/ SUNDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 10.76 POINTS OR 0.43% //Hang Sang CLOSED DOWN 102.04 POINTS OR 0.40% //The Nikkei closed / Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.48%  /Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.9011 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 44.98 dollars per barrel for WTI and 53.44 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED 

//ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.9011AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.9068: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA/

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

i)TUESDAY: HUGE STORY

Japan on Christmas day suffered a huge loss of over 1000 points or FIVE PERCENT

( zerohedge)

ii)This is important:  Japan has now given up on inflation and interesting enough it wants deflation to offset the upcoming tax hikes. Deflation is dangerous for governments as there is now no way to inflate away its debt:

( Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

 

3 C/  CHINA

i)China’s plunge protection team seemed to better equipped at handling massive stock downfalls compared to Steve Mnuchin

China at mid day had a loss of 2.5% but the Chinese National Team came to the rescue and the Shanghai stock index was down only .9%

( zerohedge)

ii)CHINA/ISRAEL
We have been wondering about this as well:  China owns major ports now in Israel as construction begin improving ports in Haifa and Ashdod, the two major sea faring operations in Israel
( Ehrlich/Asia Times)

 

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

i)EUROPE/UK/BREXIT

It looks like more British MP’s are reportedly backing Theresa May’s BREXIT plan.  It is predicated on the fact that the EU will offer concessions after the initial vote on Jan 14 is turned down.

( zerohedge)

 

ii)EUROPE

A  good picture of the level of foreign immigrants into Europe:
( zerohedge)

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

i)TURKEY/USA SYRIA

Turkey states that the USA agreed to vacate its Syrian Kurdish enclave because of an imminent ground attack.  Turkey has vowed to completely decimate ISIS.  The USA also got permission to remove Kurdish troops from the North.

( zerohedge)

ii)ISRAEL/SYRIA

Israel strikes into Syria with its first attack after the USA announces a pullout

( zerohedge)

iii)TURKEY/GREECE

Despite agreements from just after World War I, Turkey is again threatening to invade and takeover islands in the Eastern Aegean sea.

( Ghoshal/Gatestone Institute)

 

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

 

 

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

i)Venezuela

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)Interesting:  interest futures indicate that the Fed is all done with rate hikes:
( Reuters/gata)
ii)To all our numismatists out there:
( Bloomberg/GATA)

iii)I have pointed this out to you last week:  Normally Russia’s increase in reserves corresponds to its gold production.  It never sells an ounce on foreign markets like the uSA. We have noticed an increase in reserves greater than production, so in essence Russia is buying gold on the open market.

( Ronan Manly/GATA)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING

a)Wednesday: (today)

Dow loses its 300 point early gain.  It then rebounds after it is confirmed that Powell is 100% safe and then tumbles again

(courtesy zerohedge)

b)THEN:  PANIC BIDDING in a illiquid market

(zerohedge)
c)We have been warning you on this.  Today we witnessed an abysmal 5 yr auction which priced at a yield of 2.652.  However this tailed the when issued by a huge, and record 2.3 basis points as it seems that bidders are just not showing up to purchase the mammoth amount of USA debt forthcoming i.e. 1.2 trillion usa dollars to fund Trump’s stimulus plan.(courtesy zerohedge)

ii)Market data/

a)My goodness, this was a huge drop as the Richmond Fed mfg index collapsed from a reading of 14 to minus 8 in the latest report on activity in the area in November.  The Richmond Fed data is a soft data report

( zerohedge)

b)Junk bond yields rise as well as investment grade bonds as credit spreads continue to rise.  Not a very good sign

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

 

 

 

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

a)Baltimore on fire;

( zerohedge)

b)The card companies indicate that this is the strongest holiday sales in years and it is all on debt binge.  The big increase was in the field of on line retailers.
( zerohedge)
c)Two commentaries from zero hedge:
)Housing is a major component of GDP.  There is no question that USA home sales confirm “peak unaffordability” as most people just cannot afford to buy a house
(two commentaries/zerohedge)
d)A good one:  There are two schools of thought on Trump:
1. that he is a buffoon and still beholden to special interest (deep state)
2. or a genius, willing to take on the deep state
will things change like:
“Whatever the case may be, one thing looks certain right now, and that is Trump’s newfound desire to unilaterally call the shots in his presidency. The Deep State must now be rightly wondering what Trump could do next: order the US military to build his wall on the Mexico border? Initiate indictments against the Clinton Foundation over “pay to play” allegations, among other things? Shut down the Federal Reserve and bring back the US Treasury to print America’s money supply, as called for in the US Constitution? Everything is now on the table as far as Trump’s options go, and that must certainly be of no small concern to the powers-that-be in Washington DC.”
( Robert Bridge/Strategic Culture Foundation)
e)JC Penny is now trading in the pennies: it is now trading below one dollar: how long will it be for suppliers to pull their lines out of J.C.Penny

( zerohedge)
f)My goodness:  if federal workers are already commenting on their suffering because of the shutdown.  Can you imagine what they will scream about if this lasts until February

( Michael Snyder/the End of the American Dream blog)

iv)SWAMP STORIES

Trump wants his wall and the shutdown will go on for as long as it takes

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

 

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 9730 CONTRACTS UP to an OI level 442,727 WITH THE GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($10.15) IN MONDAY’S COMEX TRADING).FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE. ONCE WE GET TO FIRST DAY NOTICE, THEN THE OPEN INTEREST RISES AND AGAIN THEY DID NOT DISAPPOINT US.

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 5398 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

FOR DECEMBER:  5398 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  5398 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  15,128 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 5398 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A HUGE SIZED 9730 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 15,128 contracts OR 1,512,800  OZ OR 47.05 TONNES.

 

We are now in the active contract month of December and we now have a total of 100 contracts stand in December so we had a loss of 31 contracts.  We had 34 notices served yesterday, so we GAINED 3 contracts or 300 oz will stand as these guys REFUSED TO  morph into London based forwards and as well as NEGATING a fiat bonus.

QUEUE JUMPING RETURNS TO THE GOLD COMEX!!

 

 

The next delivery month after December is January which saw it FALL TO 1263 FOR A LOSS OF 345 CONTRACTS.  February GAINED A CONSIDERABLE 7504 contracts to stand at 325,166 contracts

We have 3 more reading days before we reach first day notice for the non active January gold comex contract month.

 

FOR COMPARISON TO THE 2017 CONTRACT MONTH and January 2018 contract month

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE DEC 1/2017: 37.035 TONNES STOOD FOR DELIVERY

EVENTUALLY BY DEC 31.2017:  28.592 TONNES STOOD AND THE REST MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

ON JANUARY 1/2018: 1.297 TONNES STOOD FOR DELIVERY

EVENTUALLY ON JAN 31.2018: 2.17 TONNES STOOD FOR DELIVERY AS QUEUE JUMPING STARTED IN EARNEST AT THE GOLD COMEX

 

 

WE HAD 17 NOTICES FILED AT THE COMEX FOR 1700 OZ. (0.052 tonnes)

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI FELL BY 228 CONTRACTS FROM 173,913 up TO 173,685 (AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S OI COMEX GAIN  OCCURRED DESPITE A 12 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DECEMBER AND, WE WERE  INFORMED THAT WE HAD A FAIR SIZED 175 EFP CONTRACTS:

 

FOR DECEMBER: 175 CONTRACTS, FOR MARCH 0 CONTRACTS, AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS.  THESE EFPS WERE ISSUED TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 175.  ON A NET BASIS WE LOST 29 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A  228 CONTRACT LOSS AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 175 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:   53 CONTRACTS...AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 12 CENT GAIN IN PRICING// MONDAY

 

 

 

 

We are now in the non active delivery month of DECEMBER and here in this front month of December we now have 12 contracts standing for a LOSS of 30 contracts.  We had 30 contracts stand for delivery yesterday so we gained 0 contracts or an additional NIL oz will stand for delivery as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus.

 

After  December we have the non active  January contract month and here we saw a LOSS of 5 contracts DOWN to 1637 contracts.  February saw a 10 contract GAIN to stand at 187. March, the next big delivery month after December saw a LOSS of 433 contracts DOWN to 142,033

WE HAVE 3 MORE READING DAYS BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE IN THE NON ACTIVE JANUARY SILVER CONTRACT MONTH:

FOR COMPARISON TO THE COMEX 2017 CONTRACT MONTH AND JANUARY 2018 CONTRACT MONTH

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE DEC 1.2017 WE HAD A RATHER LARGE: 19.47 MILLION OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY

BY THE END OF DECEMBER:  33.295 MILLION OZ AS QUEUE JUMPING WAS THE NAME OF THE GAME IN SILVER.

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE JAN 1/2018 CONTRACT MONTH WE HAD A GOOD 2.695 MILLION OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY’

AT THE CONCLUSION OF JAN/2018 WE HAD 3.650 MILLION OZ STAND AS QUEUE JUMPING WAS THE NORM FOR SILVER

.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We had 0 notice(s) filed for NIL OZ for the DEC, 2018 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

 

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY: 184,972 contracts,

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  146,381  contracts

volumes at the comex for both gold and silver are much less than usual.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  DEC/GOLD

DEC 26-/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
nil
oz
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil oz

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

 

 

 

 

nil

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
17 notice(s)
 1700 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
83 contracts
(8300 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
7439 notices
743,900 OZ
23.138 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entries:

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

we had 0 deposits into the customer account

 

total gold customer deposits;  nil oz

 

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

total gold withdrawing from the customer;  nil oz

 

we had 0  adjustments….

FOR THE DEC 2018 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 17 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 5 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the DEC/2018. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (7439) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC. (100 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (17 x 100 oz per contract) equals 752,200 OZ OR 23.396 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of DECEMBER

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the DEC/2018 contract month:

No of notices served (7439 x 100 oz)  + {100)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (17 x 100 oz )which equals 752,200 oz standing OR 23.396 TONNES in this  active delivery month of DECEMBER.

WE GAINED 3 CONTRACTS OR 300 OZ WILL  STAND AT THE COMEX AS THEY REFUSED TO MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. QUEUE JUMPING RETURNS TO THE GOLD COMEX

 

 

 

 

 

THERE ARE ONLY 22.417 TONNES OF REGISTERED COMEX GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 23.396 TONNES STANDING FOR DECEMBER

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  720,731.855 oz or   22.417 tonnes*
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,322,744.473 oz 258.87 tonnes
*however we have 23.138 tonnes of gold ALREADY SERVED UPON against dealer inventory of 22.417 tonnes and so far we have had very little settlements  as of yet.  We generally get a settlement when we see an adjustment from the dealer side to the customer side..
we have a total of 23.396 tonnes of gold standing for metal against only 22.417 tonnes of dealer gold and .182 tonnes has been settled so far…(Dec 17)

IN THE LAST 27 MONTHS 95 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE NOV DELIVERY MONTH

DEC INITIAL standings/SILVER

DEC 26, 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
1,890.900 oz
Delaware

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil
oz
HSBC
No of oz served today (contracts)
0
CONTRACT(S)
NIL OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
12 contracts
60,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 4321 contracts

(21,605,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

we had 0 deposits into the customer account

 

i) Into JPMorgan: nil oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 150.55 million oz of  total silver inventory or 51.03% of all official comex silver. (152.0 million/292 million)

 

ii) Into   everybody else:  nil

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today: nil   oz

we had 1 withdrawals out of the customer account:
i)Out of Delaware:  1890.900 oz

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals: 1890.900   oz

 

we had 0 adjustments

 

 

total dealer silver:  83.403 million

total dealer + customer silver:  293.552 million oz

 

 

 

 

The total number of notices filed today for the DEC 2018. contract month is represented by 0 contract(s) FOR NIL  oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in DEC., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 4321 x 5,000 oz = 21,605,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC. (12) and the number of notices served upon today (0x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the DEC/2018 contract month: 4321(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of DEC( 12) -number of notices served upon today (0)x 5000 oz equals 21,665,000 oz of silver standing for the DEC contract month.  This is a strong number of oz standing for an off delivery month.

We GAINED 0 contracts or NIL additional oz will stand and these guys refused to accept a London based forward as well as negate receiving a fiat bonus. The EFP route is nothing but a cash settlement process and it is done in London to avoid detection. It is becoming quite obvious that the bankers are in urgent need of silver as we witness the constant queue jumping in silver these past 20 months.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY:  71,181 CONTRACTS  … 

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 31,666 CONTRACTS… 

volumes at the comex very light considering the break out in silver.

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 31,666 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 158 million OZ  22.61% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -34.00-% (DEC 26/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -1.28% to NAV (DEC 26 /2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -4.00%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.73/TRADING 12.28/DISCOUNT 3.61

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

DEC 26/WITH GOLD UP $0.15: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 774.14 TONNES

DEC 24/WITH GOLD UP $15.15: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.00 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 774.14 TONNES

DEC 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.15 TODAY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.65 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 769.14 TONNES

DEC 20/WITH GOLD UP $11.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY AT 771.79 TONNES

DEC 19/WITH GOLD UP $3.15 TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 8.23 TONNES OF GOLD ENTERED THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 771.79 TONNES

DEC 18/WITH GOLD UP $1.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC  17 WITH GOLD UP $10.60 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.60: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 12/WITH GOLD UP $3.05 A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.24 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/SOMETHING IS BURNING…/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.85 A SMALL DEPOSIT OF .59 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.32 TONNES

DEC 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.05 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.73 TONNES

DEC 7/WITH GOLD UP $8.35/A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.51 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.73 TONNES

DEC 6/WITH GOLD UP $1.60: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 758.21 TONNES

DEC 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.25: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 758.21 TONNES

DEC 4/WITH GOLD UP $7.25: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.53 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 758.21 TONNES

DEC 3/WITH GOLD UP $13.25: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 29/WITH GOLD UP $1.30: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 28/WITH GOLD UP $9.45 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.60 A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

DEC 26.2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 774.14 tonnes

*IN LAST 523 TRADING DAYS: 161.02 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 423 TRADING DAYS: A NET 1.02 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN REMOVED FROM GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

DEC 26/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.139 MILLION OZ

DEC 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.139 MILLION OZ/

DEC 20/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.408 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV/ INV. RESTS AT 317.139 MILLION OZ/

DEC 19/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 751,000 OZ INTO THE SLV./INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.547 MILLION OZ/

DEC 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.796 MILLION OZ/

DEC 17/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY/ A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 939,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.796 MILLION OZ/.

DEC 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 13/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 12/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ

DEC 11/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY ESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 7/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.817 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY LOWERS TO 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 321.552 MILLION OZ.

DEC 4/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 134,000 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.552 MILLION OZ/

DEC 3/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.686 MILLION OZ/

NOV 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.22 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV /INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.686 MILLION OZ/

NOV 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.906 MILLION OZ.

NOV 28/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 188,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.906 MILLION OZ/

NOV 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.301 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.718 MILLION OZ/

 

 

DEC 26/2018:

 

Inventory 317.139 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.42/ and libor 6 month duration 2.89

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .47

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.65%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 3.05

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.40

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

off for Christmas

 

 
END
 
ii) GATA stories
Interesting:  interest futures indicate that the Fed is all done with rate hikes:
(courtesy Reuters/gata)

Interest rate futures say Fed is all but done with hikes

 Section: 

From Reuters
Monday, December 24, 2018

The Federal Reserve is finished raising U.S. interest rates.

That is the message emerging from the interest rate futures market as Monday’s full-blown flight from risk assets drove traders to price out nearly any prospect of further rate increases from the Fed, which raised rates again only last week.

Stocks fell sharply on Monday amid concern about slowing economic growth, the government shutdown, and reports that President Donald Trump, increasingly angry about the U.S. central bank’s rate hikes, had discussed firing Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Trump on Monday labeled the Fed as the “only problem” for the U.S. economy, and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin made unsuccessful efforts to soothe investors’ concerns over Wall Street’s deepening losses.

… 

 

The federal fund futures contract expiring in January 2020, watched closely as a gauge of where the Fed’s benchmark overnight lending rate will be at the end of next year, surged 10.5 basis points in price on Monday.That left the contract with an implied yield, which moves in the opposite direction of its price, of 2.41 percent, squarely within the current range for the Fed’s target rate. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-futures/rate-futures-market-s…

end

To all our numismatists out there:

(courtesy Bloomberg/GATA)

The thousand-dollar bill that could be worth $3 million

 Section: 

Today the silver that backed this note would be worth 50 percent more than the note’s face value.

* * *

By James Tarmy
Bloomberg News
Thursday, December 20, 2018

In 1891 the U.S. Treasury printed some thousand-dollar bills, around 1,500 of them. Rather than enter mass circulation, though, the silver certificates were primarily used as a sort of proto-wire transfer among banks, says Peter Treglia, the director of currency for Stacks Bowers Galleries, a coin and currency auctioneer.

As a result the bills never made it into private hands. They never even stayed in banks’ hands for long. “Back then currency changed so frequently that the 1891 bills circulated for only two to three years,” Treglia says.

… 

One of those thousand-dollar bills ended up in the Smithsonian. Another remained in a private collection for more than 80 years. Its first reported sale as a collectible item, rather than a piece of currency, was in the 1970s. The rest, presumably, were lost. (“I’d bet a lot of money that another one of these notes won’t turn up,” Treglia says. “Things are discovered all the time, but not of this magnitude.”)

That single remaining note, dubbed the “Marcy Note” because it features a portrait of U.S. senator (also secretary of war and governor of New York) William Marcy, is now up for auction with an estimate of $2 million to $3 million. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-20/the-1-000-bill-that-c…

END

History will vindicate GATA — if only when its founders are long gone

 Section: 

I am against bigness and greatness in all their forms, and with the invisible molecular moral forces that work from individual to individual, stealing in through the crannies of the world like so many soft rootlets, or like the capillary oozing of water, and yet rending the hardest monuments of man’s pride, if you give them time.

The bigger the unit you deal with, the hollower, the more brutal, the more mendacious is the life displayed. So I am against all big organizations as such, national ones first and foremost; against all big successes and big results; and in favor of the eternal forces of truth which always work in the individual and immediately unsuccessful way, underdogs always, till history comes, after they are long dead, and puts them on top.

— The philosopher and psychologist William James in a letter to Mrs. Henry Whitman, June 7, 1899.

END

I have pointed this out to you last week:  Normally Russia’s increase in reserves corresponds to its gold production.  It never sells an ounce on foreign markets like the uSA. We have noticed an increase in reserves greater than production, so in essence Russia is buying gold on the open market.

(courtesy Ronan Manly/GATA)

Ronan Manly: Russian central bank’s gold buying now may extend to international markets

 Section: 

11:15a ET Tuesday, December 25, 2018

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Increasing gold acquisition by Russia’s central bank, Bullion Star researcher Ronan Manly writes today, is beginning to overtake the country’s gold production, raising the possibility that Russia is or soon will be buying gold on international markets and influencing supply and prices there, though prices there now are set mainly by derivatives trading.

..

In 2004 the deputy chairman of Russia’s central bank, Oleg Mozhaiskov, mentioned GATA in a speech to the London Bullion Market Association’s summer meeting, which was held in Moscow. Mozhaiskov mused that the gold price was being set by factors other than supply and demand:

http://www.gata.org/node/4235

In 2005, shortly after a well-connected Russian delegate attended GATA’s Gold Rush 21 conference in Dawson City, Yukon Territory, Canada, the gold price began a steady increase and the Russian central bank announced that it would be buying gold on all markets where it was available:

https://sputniknews.com/russia/2005112442206145/

But in 2011 the central bank said it was buying gold only on domestic markets:

http://www.gata.org/node/9535

Manly writes today that leading Russian banks dealing in gold, particularly Sberbank and VTB, “already have the experience and trading infrastructure in international gold markets to source supplies elsewhere, such as in Zurich and London.”

Manly’s analysis is headlined “Russian Central Bank Buying Gold on the International Market?” and it’s posted at Bullion Star here:

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/russian-central-bank-buyin…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end





iii) Other Physical stories
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

 

 

 

-END-

Your early WEDNESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED UP TO 6.8891/HUGE DEVALUATION FOR THE PAST FOUR WEEKS STOPS ON TRUCE/

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.8922   /shanghai bourse CLOSED DOWN 6.53 POINTS OR 0.26%

HANG SANG CLOSED

 

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 171.32 POINTS OR .89%

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL RED 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/USA dollar index RISES TO 96.79/Euro FALLS TO 1.1386

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. +.02/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 110/63/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 43.27 and Brent: 50.92

3f Gold GOLD/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE UP/OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.25%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 2.83% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.40%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.58: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 4.39

3k Gold at $1274.95 silver at:14.86   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble DOWN 54/100 in roubles/dollar) 69.24

3m oil into the 42 dollar handle for WTI and 50 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 110.63 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9907 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1281 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to +0.25%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.74% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.00%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.2915

 

US Futures, Dollar Rebound After Trump Says To BTFD

US equity futures rebounded from a poor start, which saw the E-mini initially tumble 1% early in the overnight session, then rise as much as 0.6% in yet another illiquid session boosted by Trump’s latest attempt to talk up markets after an apparent de-escalation in tensions between the president and the Fed chair and Treasury Secretary. Earlier, Asian stocks outside of Japan dropped 0.2% to a two-month lows catching down to Monday’s US market rout, while Europe was mostly closed for trading.

S&P 500 contracts gained 0.6% as of 7am ET after falling as much as 1.1 percent earlier. Futures on the Nasdaq 100 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.4 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively. With the S&P closing on the edge of a bear market, traders will be looking for confirmation of more liquidation selling or else an attempt at lifting stocks from massively oversold levels.

Trump’s latest reversal and expression of confidence in the Treasury secretary, Fed chair Powell and the economy on Tuesday helped to modestly calm markets, which were roiled after Bloomberg reported that the president had discussed firing the central bank’s chairman over raising interest rates, while Mnuchin was also in danger of losing his job should stocks continue to slide.

As reported last night, Trump called Mnuchin a “very talented guy, very smart person” and also said that the central bank is “raising interest rates too fast” but he has “confidence” that the Fed will “get it pretty soon.” Separately, CNN reported that Mnuchin spoke by phone with Trump several times over the weekend and also after a brutal Christmas Eve trading day.

Commenting on the market rout, Steve Englander, head of global G-10 FX for Standard Chartered Bank said that “markets have pretty much made up their minds on how jumpy they want to be – very. The question is what is the primary driver of the jumpiness – economic concerns, Fed policy, Trump-Fed conflict, slowing of global growth? Nothing is particularly encouraging right now.”

Earlier in the session, the MSCI index of Asia-Pacific shares ex-Japan slipped 0.5 percent, dropping to a two-month low, with the Shanghai Composite losing 0.4% while the CSI 300 Index slumped -0.5%, its lowest close since March 2016 and the ChiNext Index of small caps dropped -0.7%; South Korea’s KOSPI shed 1.6%.

Japan’s Nikkei, which crashed 1000 points, or 5% the previous day and also entered a bear market, had a volatile session. It swerved in and out of the red, falling more than 1% to a 20-month-low at one stage, before ending the day with a gain of 0.9% as yet another plunge protection team appears to have been activated. Japan’s Topix index closed 1.1% higher after surging as much as 2% earlier on Wednesday. This came after a 4.9% plunge on Christmas Day

Top Asian News

  • Goldman Sachs Gets Nod From Mori for Bond After SMBC Nikko Cut
  • Japan’s 10-Year Bond Yield Touches Zero Percent as Stocks Sink
  • Global Stock Angst Snowballs as Nikkei 225 Enters Bear Market
  • Bleak Year for India Company Bond Sales Ends on Signs of Rebound

Markets in Britain, Germany and France remained closed on Wednesday.

Top European News

  • Shell’s Prelude LNG Project in Australia Starts Gas Output
  • Coal Seen Down But Not Out in 2019 as Ex-China Supply Recedes
  • Gold Powers to Six-Month High as Turmoil Fires Up Haven Demand
  • Turkey May Import Up to 300K Tons Sunflower Seed With Zero Duty

Emerging-market stocks headed for their longest losing streak since October as concern of further turmoil in the U.S. kept global investors on tenterhooks.

Despite Wednesday’s modest rebound, comments from strategists were downright apocalyptic:

  • “In addition to concerns toward the U.S. economy, the markets are now having to grapple with growing turmoil in the White House which has raised political risk ahead of the year-end,” said Masahiro Ichikawa, senior strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management.
  • “In the end, we believe that the Fed is the only presence capable of ending the current confusion in the markets,” said Kenta Inoue, senior market economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities.  “The White House will probably keep making gestures intended to halt the rout in stocks, but the federal government is likely to remain shut into the new year. The U.S.-China trade war also shows no signs of a resolution.”
  • “It is very unusual that the bias among the market participants is to the downside during this time of the year, and there’s not a lot of time to fix that,” said Walter “Bucky” Hellwig, a senior vice president at BB&T Wealth Management. “I am not a trader but I checked the futures three times on Sunday and am watching the futures on a Christmas evening as well — when you get moves like this you just can’t ignore them.”
  • “We are in the middle of the worst storm in global financial markets since the 2008 crisis, with markets crashing from New York to Tokyo,” said Bernd Berg, global macro and FX strategist at Woodman Asset Management. “As global central banks are unlikely to come to the rescue this time around, the global market crash might continue well into next year.”
  • “As far as the futures are suggesting, the market is indecisive right now,” said Jingyi Pan, market strategist at IG Asia Pte. “The rather empty calendar and empty desks post-Christmas could mean that there may be little to arrest the fall should it unfold,” she said.
  • “These are incredibly tricky markets to decipher as the outsized moves are not reflective of the current U.S. economic landscape,” said Stephen Innes, the head of trading for Asia-Pacific at Oanda Corp. in Singapore. “But that seems to matter little so far as fear mongering continues to permeate every pocket of global capital markets.”

Elsewhere, US Treasury yields declined amid the rout, including a steep sell-off in oil, prompted investors to move into safe-haven government debt with the 2Y Treasury yield flash crashing ahead of the close on Monday amid a furious last minute short squeeze, adding to the growing pressure on the dollar. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield extended its fall to touch 2.722 percent, its lowest since early April.

In currencies, the dollar traded at 110.35 yen after retreating to a four-month low of 110.00 overnight against its Japanese peer, which tends to attract demand as a perceived safe-haven during times of market volatility and economic stress.

Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index initially edged lower in Asian morning before trading sharply higher as a skeleton crew of US traders walked in to their trading desks. Sterling advanced versus dollar, with cable rising back above 1.27 as of 5:15pm Tokyo. The euro was 0.15 percent higher at $1.1412. The ruble declined most among peers as Brent crude lingered near $50 a barrel

In commodities, U.S. crude futures were up 0.4 percent at $42.70 per barrel after tumbling 6.7 percent on Monday.  U.S. crude futures plunged to the lowest level since June 2017 on Monday, as bearish stocks added to fears of an economic slowdown. Brent crude futures were down 0.18 percent at $50.38 a barrel, having skidded 6.2 percent in the previous session to their weakest since August 2017.

Safe-haven gold was well bid, with spot prices brushing a six-month peak of $1,272.83 per ounce.

Expected economic events include the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey. No major companies are reporting.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.5% to 2,353.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.4% to 335.24 on Dec. 24.
  • MXAP up 0.2% to 142.50
  • MXAPJ down 0.2% to 468.36
  • Nikkei up 0.9% to 19,327.06
  • Topix up 1.1% to 1,431.47
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.4% to 25,651.38
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.3% to 2,498.29
  • Sensex up 0.4% to 35,626.47
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.5% to 5,493.80
  • Kospi down 1.3% to 2,028.01
  • Euro down 0.02% to $1.1390
  • Brent Futures up 1.1% to $51.00/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.3% to $1,272.61
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.2% to 96.73

Top Overnight News

  • U.S. stock-index futures whipsawed between losses and gains, as investors assessed comments from President Donald Trump that he was confident in Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and the American economy while the benchmark index sat at the edge of plunging into bear market territory
  • President Trump’s frustration with Mnuchin is ratcheting up after his attempts to calm Wall Street failed, CNN reported, citing a source close to the White House.
  • Japanese stocks rose for the first time in six days as electronics makers staged a rebound after the Nikkei 225 Stock Average tumbled into a bear market on Tuesday
  • Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said growing overseas economic risks and recent market volatility are precisely the kind of circumstances that call for sticking with powerful and sustainable stimulus
  • Oil in London fell below $50 a barrel for the first time since July 2017 as broader financial market turmoil and worries over U.S. supply countered signals from the OPEC+ coalition that it may extend or deepen output cuts
  • Gold is rallying into the end of 2018 as turmoil in global equities, the partial U.S. government shutdown and concerns about the outlook for next year stoke demand, lifting prices to the highest in six months

US Event Calendar

  • 9am: S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA, est. 4.8%, prior 5.15%; MoM SA, est. 0.3%, prior 0.33%
  • 10am: Richmond Fed Manufact. Index, est. 15, prior 14

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)WEDNESDAY MORNING/ TUESDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 6.53 POINTS OR 0.26% //Hang Sang CLOSED /The Nikkei closed UP 171.32 POINTS OR .89% / Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.8891 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 43.27 dollars per barrel for WTI and 50.92 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED 

//ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.8891AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8922: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

 

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA/

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

TUESDAY: HUGE STORY

Japan on Christmas day suffered a huge loss of over 1000 points or FIVE PERCENT

(courtesy zerohedge)

Nikkei Crashes 1000 Points, Tumbles Into Bear Market

Update: Japan’s Nikkei and the broader Topix indices fell over 1,000 points, or 5% in Tuesday morning trading to a 20-month low on the heels of the worst S&P 500 Christmas Eve crash on record. The Nikkei average hit an intra-day low of 19,138.88, or -5.09%, while the broader Topix was also around 5% lower.

***

A few hours after the S&P tumbled over 2.7%, sliding into a bear market for the first time in a decade, Japan’s Nikkei 225 – which had been sliding gradually for the past week – dropped sharply by over 3.2% at the open…

… becoming the latest index to tumble into a bear market, sliding over 20% from its October 2 peak.

Meanwhile, the broader Topix index – which had already entered a bear market from its January 2018 highs – plunged even more, dumping over 4.3% and was trading at levels last seen in November 2016, as more than 2 years of gains have been largely wiped out in just the past 3 months as the Christmas Eve rout launched in the US goes global.

END
This is important:  Japan has now given up on inflation and interesting enough it wants deflation to offset the upcoming tax hikes. Deflation is dangerous for governments as there is now no way to inflate away its debt:
(courtesy Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

Japan Gives Up On Inflation, Now Wants Deflation (Sort Of) To Offset Tax Hikes

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

Today seems straight from the Twilight Zone: First the PPT and now Abenomics in full reverse.

Please consider Japan Finally Concedes Its Crazy Low Prices Can’t Be Beat.

Japan has virtually given up on reaching 2% inflation after nearly six years of trying. An argument gaining ground in Tokyo holds that the inflation goal, once seen as paramount, doesn’t matter so much after all. Inflation excluding volatile fresh food and energy prices was just 0.3% in November, and it has barely budged all year.

Mr. Abe has largely stopped discussing the dangers of deflation, and his government is actually trying to push some prices down ahead of a tax increase set to take effect in October 2019. Mr. Abe’s de facto No. 2, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, has called on mobile-phone carriers to lower fees by about 40%—a move that could knock a full percentage point off inflation, according to government estimates.

“There is no change to our stance of seeking the 2% price goal as soon as possible by patiently continuing powerful easing,” Mr. Kuroda said at a November press conference. At the same time, he has started talking more about the potential downsides of aggressive monetary easing,

Still, BOJ officials are hesitant to abandon the target altogether out of fear it could damage expectations and push the country back into deflation, said people familiar with the BOJ’s thinking.

Raising Prices

Torikizoku (Chicken Nobility), raised prices for the first time in 30 years last year, by the equivalent of 16 cents.

“Once prices went up, it wasn’t just the chickens that got skewered. Same-store sales at the chain have fallen more than 5% every month since May and profit fell 76% compared with a year earlier in the most recent quarter.”

Abe now wants mobile-phone carriers to lower fees by about 40%, a move that could knock a full percentage point off inflation, so it can raise taxes.

Price Stability

The BOJ does not officially want to abandon its inflation target. And BOJ predecessor, Masaaki Shirakawa says “What is more important is…to aim for sustainable price stability in the medium to long term.

Japan is the one nation that seems to have a modicum of price stability. It doesn’t want it. Heck, it does not even seem to know it has some stability.

The Fed defines stability as prices forever rising.

This is all straight from the Twilight Zone.

What’s Coming?

I do suspect that at some point these sorts of financial shenanigans will “succeed” beyond Japan’s wildest expectations with Japan intervening to stop massive inflation.

All it will take is an attitude changes that’s arguably long overdue.

For discussion, please see Japan’s Red Queen Race.

3 C CHINA

China’s plunge protection team seemed to better equipped at handling massive stock downfalls compared to Steve Mnuchin

China at mid day had a loss of 2.5% but the Chinese National Team came to the rescue and the Shanghai stock index was down only .9%

(courtesy zerohedge)

China Shows Mnuchin How It’s Done As Beijing’s Plunge Protection Team Reverses Stock Rout

One day after Steven Mnuchin convened the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets, also known as the Plunge Protection Team, only to see a record Christmas Eve drop in US stock markets, China showed the US how market manipulation is done.

With only a handful of Asian markets open on Christmas Day, and with Nikkei 225 plummeting 1000 points as Japan’s blue chip index closed a whopping 5% lower and entered a bear market, China’s stocks similarly started the day off on the back foot with both the Shanghai Composite and the SSE 50 Index of the country’s largest stocks sliding around 2.5% in early trade. However all that reversed in the afternoon session when the Chinese National Team came in and started buying mostly financial stocks, lifting the country’s markets and pushing the Composite back over 2,500, ending with a loss of just 0.9%.

Agricultural Bank of China added 0.9% on Tuesday, erasing a drop of 0.6% thanks to the burst of late day buying. Bank of China rose 0.6 percent, and Bank of Communications rose 0.4%. China Southern Airlines rose 1.9 percent as the best performer on the SSE 50 measure, erasing a slide of 1% in the morning.

Meanwhile, an index of energy stocks was the worst performer among the CSI 300 Index’s 10 industry groups, falling 2.1% as crude fell to the lowest level in a year and a half. China Petroleum & Chemical and PetroChina lost at least 2%. Earlier in the session, Chinese oil futures for March delivery fall by the 7% daily limit from Monday’s settlement price to 351.6 yuan/bbl ($51.12) on Tuesday in Shanghai as the global oil rout leaves no market unscathed.

“The gains by big banks and insurers suggest state buying, and some funds may also be bottom-fishing stocks,” said Dai Ming, a fund manager with Hengsheng Asset Management. Kang Chongli, a Beijing-based strategist with Lianxun Securities told Bloomberg that the 2,500 level “is both a policy and technical bottom” for the Shanghai Composite Index. The index closed just above it, at 2,504.82.

Just like the now confirmed Plunge Protection Team, China’s “national team” of state-backed funds often buys shares during turbulent times. Large caps like banks are among the most favored targets, and buying often comes in the afternoon so gains, or at least smaller losses, are locked in for the day.

Tuesday’s re-emergence of the Chinese plunge protectors will come as a relief to struggling local investors after Goldman found that, inexplicably, in the third quarter the National Team was a net seller of RMB104 BN in stocks, the biggest quarterly sale by the National Team since the Chinese stock bubble popped in late 2015.

And while Beijing showed Mnuchin how state-sponsored manipulation of the market should work, the latest intervention will offer little comfort to Chinese investors, as the Shanghai Composite is down 24% this year, its worst performance in a decade as the trade war with the U.S. escalated.

end
CHINA/ISRAEL
We have been wondering about this as well:  China owns major ports now in Israel as construction begin improving ports in Haifa and Ashdod, the two major sea faring operations in Israel
(courtesy Ehrlich/Asia Times)

Is China Getting Too Close To Israel?

Authored by Richard Ehrlich via The Asia Times,

Two multi-billion dollar Chinese seaports near critical Israeli sites are raising concerns over potential security issues and relations with Washington …

 

China is constructing seaports at two sites where the US 6th Fleet deploys, in Haifa next to Israel’s main naval base and Ashdod near Tel Aviv, prompting concerns about China’s military potential in the Mediterranean Sea and Middle East.

The civilian [Chinese] port in Haifa abuts the exit route from the adjacent [Israeli] navy base, where the Israeli submarine fleet is stationed and which, according to foreign media reports, maintains a second-strike capability to launch nuclear missiles,” Israel’s Haaretz media reported.

“No one in Israel thought about the strategic ramifications,” Haaretz said in September.

The guided-missile destroyer USS Arleigh Burke visited Haifa on October 25 in support of the 6th Fleet which is headquartered in Naples, Italy.

Shanghai International Port Group (SIPG) signed the Haifa contract in 2015, began construction in June, and is to operate the Bayport Terminal for 25 years starting from 2021.

SIPG signed memorandums of understanding with U.S. ports in Seattle, Washington in 2006 and Georgia Ports Authority in 2004, plus Barcelona, Spain, in 2006.

SIPG also works with European ports in Rotterdam, Hamburg and London, and two ports in Japan, its website said.

China Harbor Engineering, one of China’s biggest government-owned enterprises, is meanwhile constructing a port at Ashdod, 25 miles (40 kilometers) south of Tel Aviv.

“At $3 billion, this is one of the biggest overseas investment projects in Israel, ever, and also one of the biggest for the Chinese company, China Harbor Engineering,” wrote Arthur Herman, senior fellow at the Washington-based Hudson Institute think tank in November.

“Ashdod on the Mediterranean coast is the destination of fully 90 percent of Israel’s international maritime traffic,” Herman said.

Ashdod’s current port hosted the USS Ross guided-missile destroyer in October which also supports “U.S. national security interests in the U.S. 6th Fleet area of operations,” a USS Ross public affairs officer said on the Navy’s website.

“This is an historic moment,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in 2017 when he joined Chinese officials to lay the cornerstone of the Ashdod port.

Israel’s Transportation Ministry and the Ports Authority permitted construction of the Chinese ports at Haifa and Ashdod “with zero involvement of the [Israeli] National Security Council and without the [Israeli] navy,” Haaretz said.

“The first [concern] is over Chinese control of strategic infrastructure and the possibility of espionage,” the London-based Economist magazine reported in October.

“Israeli submarines, widely reported to be capable of launching nuclear missiles, are docked there [at Haifa]. Yet the deal with the Chinese firm was never discussed by the cabinet or the national security council, a situation one [Israeli] minister described as astonishing,” the Economist said.

Trading routes

“There are skeptics in several Israeli political parties and among former national security officials, who warn of potential security issues and possible friction with the United States resulting from Chinese involvement in Israeli infrastructure projects,” wrote Elliott Abrams, senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Washington-based Council on Foreign Relations and former deputy national security advisor to President George W Bush.

The ports form part of China’s international, multi-billion dollar Belt and Road Initiative.

The Belt and Road project would link China with countries elsewhere in Asia, the Middle East and Europe along lucrative trading routes across land and sea, with Ashdod serving as a crucial port for seaborne trade with Europe,  Abrams said.

China’s Haifa and Ashdod ports are part of “an ambitious trans-Asian strategy to pursue three key resources for China’s future greatness: petrochemicals, consumer markets, and advanced technology,” he said in his 2018 brief. Middle East oil and gas fuels China’s growth.

The Middle East would also offer a huge commercial market for purchasing Chinese exports, including consumer goods, electronics and other items. Gilad Cohen, the Israeli Foreign Ministry’s deputy director general for Asia and the Pacific, is bullish on Chinese investments in Israel. “Recently there have been increasing warnings against allowing China to participate in projects and investments in Israel.”

Cohen said in October.

“There are some who go as far as to deem any Chinese economic involvement in our region as a threat to our interests and a danger to our economic independence. These statements are damaging to relations between the countries.

“We are a country with confidence in its capabilities, unafraid of exposure to new markets, while we safeguard our security and strategic interests,” Cohen wrote in a published opinion piece headlined: “How Close to China is Too Close for Israel?”

Prime Minister Netanyahu meanwhile hosted China’s Vice President Wang Qishan along with Jack Ma, CEO and founder of the e-commerce giant Alibaba, in Jerusalem in October.

Their summit “reflects the growing ties between our countries, our economies, our peoples,” Netanyahu said.

In 2017, Netanyahu visited Beijing and met Chinese President Xi Jinping.

China established diplomatic relations with Israel in 1992 when Deng Xiaoping and Yitzhak Rabin were in power, and continues to support Israel during votes in the United Nations.

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

EUROPE/UK/BREXIT

It looks like more British MP’s are reportedly backing Theresa May’s BREXIT plan.  It is predicated on the fact that the EU will offer concessions after the initial vote on Jan 14 is turned down.

(courtesy zerohedge)

A Christmas Miracle? More MPs Are Reportedly Backing Theresa May’s Brexit Deal

Could Theresa May be on the verge of achieving a Brexit Christmas miracle?

Less than a month after May survived a no-confidence challenge from within her own party after members of the European Council repudiated her pleas for a meaningful concession on the Irish backstop, support for May’s unpopular Brexit plan is finally gathering steam, with several rebellious members of the European Research Group and the Democratic Unionist Party apparently ready to support her plan at a vote next month.

To be sure, this support is predicated on the notion that May will be able to win a concession from the EU if her first meaningful vote – scheduled for Jan. 14 – fails. May’s chief negotiator, Ollie Robbins, reportedly returned to Brussels last week to continue talks with the European Commission, after the EU said that talks between the two sides had ceased. Robbins is reportedly hoping to strike a deal by the end of the second week in January.

May

Concessions would make it easier for May to win over a few Brexiteers, including, possibly, ERG leader Jacob Rees-Mogg, the chairman of the group. One of May’s cabinet ministers told the Times that securing support from Rees-Mogg was “a work in progress.” Some Brexiteers who backed the leadership challenge against May are reportedly facing pressure from their constituencies to cave and support the deal, according to the Times.

Other Brexiteers have come under pressure from their local Conservative Party associations. At least two rebels have been threatened with deselection by their constituency party chairmen after publicly supporting efforts to oust May.

Meanwhile, a recent meeting between May and DUP leader Arlene Foster has reportedly helped thaw the relationship between the two, and could open the door for May to win back support of the DUP, who have been making noises about possibly supporting Jeremy Corbyn’s push for a vote of no confidence in May’s government.

The relationship between the Tories and the DUP, which has been in the deep freeze, appears to be thawing.

It follows a successful one-to-one meeting between May and Arlene Foster this month when the DUP leader “saw the whites of May’s eyes and realised she was serious about securing concessions on the backstop,” an ally said.

After May and her senior ministers reportedly started discussing alternatives to her Brexit plan, the Times said it’s becoming increasingly clear that the EU will ultimately offer concessions – but that they won’t come right away, and that May’s deal may need to be defeated in a vote first. Then, May’s team says it’s looking increasingly likely that a second vote could be successful – which would validate May’s strategy of running out the clock.

It is understood that the changes required by the DUP are significant and the EU is not going to offer them straight away.

It is now expected that the government could bring forward a second vote within two days if May’s deal is voted down when the meaningful vote is held in the week beginning January 14.

“It’s now very much our expectation that we can win this vote, if not the first time then the second time around,” according to a senior government source.

May is reportedly hoping to capitalize on this growing moment by inviting Tory MPs to a party at No. 10 during the first week of the year. In another sign of support for May, the Times reported that May’s cabinet ministers are devising a plan to keep her in power for at least another two years – a plan that has been buoyed by “a substantial shift in the vote arithmetic” regarding May’s deal.

Meanwhile, in an end of the year letter published in the Express, May urged MPs to unite and back her plan so that Parliament can move on and focus on domestic issues, which have been largely neglected since the Brexit process began more than 2 years ago. She demanded that lawmakers abandon the “Leave” and “Remain” labels and come together to ensure that the will of the voters is carried out.

If May does secure the votes for her deal, that victory will go a long way toward vindicating her approach of ratcheting up pressure by running out the clock. However, this wouldn’t be the first time we’ve heard that the EU is on the verge of offering concession, only for them to tell May to ‘drop dead’.

end
A  good picture of the level of foreign immigrants into Europe:
(courtesy zerohedge)

The European Countries Home To The Most Migrants

The latest figures on migrant populations from the United Nations reveal a lot about the movement of people around the world and how this has evolved over the years. 

This infographic focuses on the share of the population accounted for by migrants in European countries in 2017.

As Statista’s Martin Armstrong notes, when looking at nations with a population of over 500,000, Luxembourg is top of the list with 45.3 percent. 

Infographic: The European countries home to the most migrants | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

The UK, currently negotiating its exit from the EU based in large part on the public’s dissatisfaction with the perceived levels of immigration, has 13.4 percent of its people classed as ‘foreign-born’.

 end

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

TURKEY/USA SYRIA

Turkey states that the USA agreed to vacate its Syrian Kurdish enclave because of an imminent ground attack.  Turkey has vowed to completely decimate ISIS.  The USA also got permission to remove Kurdish troops from the North.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Turkey Says US Agreed To Vacate Syrian Kurdish Enclave As Ground Attack Imminent

On Christmas Eve the White House announced in a statement that President Trump is open to a “potential meeting in the future” with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The statement noted Turkey’s president had formally invited Trump to meet in 2019, though nothing specific or definite has been planned.

This comes after it was revealed that in a Dec. 14 phone call between the two leaders Trump said the US was “done” with Syria. Trump’s senior aides later revealed the decision for a “full” and “immediate” pullout of the some 2000+ American military personnel training and advising Kurdish-Arab SDF forces in north-east Syria was made after the phone call, and curiously the U.S. State Department approved the sale of $3.5 billion in patriot missiles to Turkey the day after.

According to a senior administration official who spoke to CNN, Trump told Erdogan, “OK, it’s all yours. We are done,” in reference to Syria. The president sought assurances from Erdogan that Turkey would finish off remnant ISIS cells in eastern Syria, per the CNN report:

A senior White House official said Erdogan gave Trump his “word” that Turkey would finish off ISIS.

“In the call on Friday, Erdogan said to the President, ‘In fact, as your friend, I give you my word in this,’” the senior White House official said.

While giving a speech last Friday Erdogan revealed some of the details of the call, saying, “During a conversation I had with Mr. Trump  he said ‘ISIS, can you clear ISIS from this area?'” Erdogan recalled further: “We did it before, and we can again as long as we have logistic support from you… And so they began pulling out.” Erdogan added: “Within the framework of the phone call we had with Mr. Trump, we have started preparing plans for operations to clear the ISIS elements still within Syria.”

Trump, for his part, subsequently confirmed in a weekend tweet: “I just had a long and productive call with President Erdogan of Turkey. We discussed ISIS, our mutual involvement in Syria, & the slow & highly coordinated pullout of U.S. troops from the area. After many years they are coming home. We also discussed heavily expanded Trade.”

Meanwhile a major Turkish Army and Turkish-backed rebel assault on the key Syrian Kurdish stronghold of Manbij is imminent. Turkey has been reported over the past days to be mustering large forces, including hundreds of vehicles and troops surrounding the northwestern Syrian town, around Manbij.

Turkey has long demanded US advisers to withdraw and to clear the town of armed Syrian Kurdish groups, specifically the YPG, which forms the core of the US-backed SDF but which Ankara sees as an extension of the outlawed terror group, the PKK.

Bloomberg described the military build-up, filmed by Turkish state media, as follows:

The convoy of around 200 vehicles, including howitzers, armored personnel carriers and artillery, advanced to reinforce the military’s presence in areas close to Manbij, TRT said on Sunday. They were joined by forces of the Free Syrian Army, which has backed Turkish offensives against Syrian Kurdish militants, state-run Anadolu Agency said Monday.

However, as a potential bloodbath is set to ensue, on Tuesday morning Turkey’s foreign minister announced the United States has agreed to complete a previously discussed “roadmap” for the removal of all Kurdish militia fighters from the Northern Syrian town before American forces clear out.

Though the US side has yet to confirm Turkey’s latest claims, it appears the handover of Manbij to Turkey has begun following prior threats from Erdogan to “cleanse” the region of all Kurdish resistance.

 

 

END

ISRAEL/SYRIA

Israel strikes into Syria with its first attack after the USA announces a pullout

(courtesy zerohedge)

Israel Strikes Syria In First Attack After US Announces Pullout

 

.

On Christmas Day, Israel launched what Bloomberg described as its first airstrike in Syria since President Trump’s “shocking”announcement that he would withdraw all US troops from Syrian territory (to the disgust of US national security officials and every neo-con anywhere). The strike targeted an ammunition depot in the Damascus countryside believed to belong either to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, or its Lebanon-based proxy Hezbollah.

Israel

According to Syrian and Russian officials, the airstrike was launched from Lebanese territory.

Air defenses intercepted most Israeli missiles, state-run Syrian Arab News Agency reported, citing an unidentified military official. However the U.K.-based Syrian observatory for human rights that monitors the war said three targets were hit, including weapons depots belonging to Iran or its Lebanese Hezbollah proxy, and that projectiles had fallen in the Israeli-occupied section of the Golan Heights.

In response to the US’s decision to withdraw, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the IDF would “increase efforts” against Tehran’s entrenchment in Syria as a result.

Israel reportedly launched six f-16 fighters from Lebanese territory to carry out the strike. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that 14 of 16 missiles launched by Israel had been intercepted, and that the strike had occurred while civilian planes were landing at nearby Damascus airport, threatening innocent lives. Some projectiles also fell in the Israeli-occupied section of the Golan Heights.

Michael A. Horowitz

@michaelh992

#Breaking #Russia‘s Ministry of Defense claims Israeli strikes occurred while civilian planes were landing in Damascus airport #Syria

With the US pulling out of Syria, it’s widely expected that Iran will benefit, as the country has offered consistent support to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad since the civil war began more than six years ago. Israel has carried out hundreds of air strikes against Iranian targets in Syria since the beginning of the conflict, though it rarely acknowledges the strikes.

Iran is set to reap the rewards of its support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in the country’s long civil war, in which Iranian-backed militias including Hezbollah have played a crucial role in the regime’s fight against an opposition insurgency intent on overthrowing Assad.

Israel rarely acknowledges conducting strikes on Syria and its military wouldn’t comment on reports of offensive activity. However it said on Twitter on Dec. 25 that it activated its aerial defense system in response to an anti-aircraft missile launched from Syria.

Israel has yet to acknowledge the strike.

 END

Israel Preparing For Comprehensive War In Syria: Report

Via Middle East Monitor,

Russia’s Nezavisimaya Gazeta said that Israel is preparing for a comprehensive war on Syria following the US’ withdrawal from the country.

The newspaper said that the decision of US President Donald Trump to withdraw American troops from Syria has left Israel forced to face the Iranian presence in Syria with its troops alone.

The newspaper quoted Israel’s former defence minister Avigdor Lieberman as saying that:

“the United States’ withdrawal from Syria greatly increases the likelihood of a large-scale conflict in the north, whether in Lebanon or Syria”.

Lieberman added that “the Americans’ departure will raise the morale of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad and his allies, Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah.”

The Russian daily quoted Russian military expert Yuri Liamin as saying that “Iran cannot interpret this decision as a blank cheque”.

“We must not forget that Turkey is now threatening to launch a new military operation against the Syrian Kurds. This operation may lead to real Turkish control over a significant part of northern Syria. Such development is unlikely to please the Syrian authorities and its Iranian ally,” he added.

Last Wednesday, the United States announced that it had decided to withdraw its troops from Syria, with Trump announcing on Twitter: “We have defeated ISIS [Daesh] in Syria, my only reason for being there during the Trump Presidency.”

US media said the decision came after a telephone call between Trump and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan following the announcement of an anticipated Turkish military operation against Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), east of the Euphrates River, which Ankara considers a terrorist group.

 

TURKEY/GREECE

Despite agreements from just after World War I, Turkey is again threatening to invade and takeover islands in the Eastern Aegean sea.

(courtesy Ghoshal/Gatestone Institute)

Turkey’s Growing Threats Against Greece

Authored by Debalina Ghoshal via The Gatestne Institute,

  • The one issue on which Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his opposition are in “complete agreement” is the conviction that the Greek islands are occupied Turkish territory and must be reconquered.”
  • “So strong is this determination that the leaders of both parties have openly threatened to invade the Aegean.”– Uzay Bulut, Turkish journalist.
  • Ankara’s ongoing challenges to Greek land and sea sovereignty are additional reasons to keep it from enjoying full acceptance in Europe and the rest of the West.

In April 2017, Turkish European Affairs Minister Omer Celik claimed in an interview that the Greek Aegean island of Agathonisi (pictured) was Turkish territory. (Image source: Hans-Heinrich Hoffmann/Wikimedia Commons)

Turkey’s “persistent policy of violating international law and breaching international rules and regulations” was called out in a November 14 letter to UN Secretary General António Guterres by Polly Ioannou, the deputy permanent representative of Cyprus to the UN.

Reproving Ankara for its repeated violations of Cypriot airspace and territorial waters, Ioannou wrote of Turkey’s policy:

“[it] is a constant threat to international peace and security, has a negative impact on regional stability, jeopardises the safety of international civil aviation, creates difficulties for air traffic over Cyprus and prevents the creation of an enabling environment in which to conduct the Cyprus peace process.”

The letter followed reports in August about Turkish violations of Greek airspace over the northeastern, central and southeastern parts of the Aegean Sea, and four instances of Turkey violating aviation norms by infringing on the Athens Flight Information Region (AFIR). Similar reports emerged in June of Turkey violating Greek AFIR by conducting unauthorized flights over the southern Aegean islets of Mavra, Levitha, Kinaros and Agathonisi.

In April 2017, Turkish European Affairs Minister Omer Celik claimed in an interview that Agathonisi was Turkish territory. A day earlier, a different Turkish minister announced that Turkey “would not allow Greece to establish a status of ‘fait accompli’ in the ‘disputed’ regions in the Aegean Sea.” In December 2017, Greek Deputy Minister of Shipping Nektarios Santonirios reportedly “presented a plan to populate a number of uninhabited eastern Aegean islands to deter Turkish claims to the land.”

According to a recent statement from Greece’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs:

“Greek-Turkish disputes over the Aegean continental shelf date back to November 1973, when the Turkish Government Gazette published a decision to grant the Turkish national petroleum company permits to conduct research in the Greek continental shelf west of Greek islands in the Eastern Aegean.

“Since then, the repeated Turkish attempts to violate Greece’s sovereign rights on the continental shelf have become a serious source of friction in the two countries’ bilateral relations, even bringing them close to war (1974, 1976, 1987).”

This friction has only increased with the authoritarian rule of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, particularly since, as Uzay Bulut notes:

There is one issue on which Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its main opposition, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), are in complete agreement: The conviction that the Greek islands are occupied Turkish territory and must be reconquered. So strong is this determination that the leaders of both parties have openly threatened to invade the Aegean.

The only conflict on this issue between the two parties is in competing to prove which is more powerful and patriotic, and which possesses the courage to carry out the threat against Greece. While the CHP is accusing President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s AKP party of enabling Greece to occupy Turkish lands, the AKP is attacking the CHP, Turkey’s founding party, for allowing Greece to take the islands through the 1924 Treaty of Lausanne, the 1932 Turkish-Italian Agreements, and the 1947 Paris Treaty, which recognized the islands of the Aegean as Greek territory.

This has been Turkish policy despite the fact that both Greece and Turkey have been members of NATO since 1952. Greece became a member of the European Union in 1981 — a status that Turkey has spent decades failing to achieve, mainly due to its human-rights violations.

Recently, EU and Turkish officials met in Brussels on November 30 to discuss an intelligence-sharing agreement between the European Police Service (Europol) and Ankara. Such an agreement is reportedly one of 72 requirements that Ankara would have to meet in order to receive visa-free travel to the Schengen zone.

Ankara’s ongoing challenges to Greek land and sea sovereignty are additional reasons to keep it from enjoying full acceptance in Europe and the rest of the West.

END

 

 

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

MALAYSIA/GOLDMAN SACHS

 

7  OIL ISSUES

8. EMERGING MARKETS

Venezuela

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings WEDNESDAY morning 7:00

Euro/USA 1.1386 DOWN .0027 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES

 

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 110.63  UP 0.199 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL

GBP/USA 1.2674     DOWN    0.0012  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3597 UP .0011 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS WEDNESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 27 basis point, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level FALLING to 1.1386/ Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED DOWN 6.53 POINTS OR 0.26%

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED  /EUROPEAN BOURSES RED

 

 

 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this WEDNESDAY morning CLOSED  UP 171.32 POINTS OR .89%  

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED  RED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED 

 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 6.53  POINTS OR 0.26%

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED 

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 171.32 POINTS OR .89%

 

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1272.00

silver:$14.84

Early WEDNESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.74% !!! DOWN 0 IN POINTS from MONDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

The 30 yr bond yield 3.00 UP 1  IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 96.79 UP 20 CENT(S) from  MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers WEDNESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.69% UP 0    in basis point(s) yield from MONDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.02%  DOWN 3   BASIS POINTS from MONDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/EXTREMELY VOLATILE YESTERDAY…

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.40% UP 0  IN basis point yield from MONDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.83 UP 0     POINTS in basis point yield from MONDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 143 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES UP TO +.25%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.58% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for WEDNESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1382 DOWN  .0032 or 32 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 110.80 UP  0.369 OR 37 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2652 DOWN .0034( POUND DOWN 34  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 6 basis points to 1.3581

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY closed UP AT 6.8854-  ON SHORE  (YUAN UP)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.8909(  YUAN UP)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.2840

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.02%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 1 IN basis points from MONDAY at 2.76 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.02 UP 1 in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 96.74 UP 16 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for WEDNESDAY: 4:00 PM 

London: CLOSED

German Dax : CLOSED

Paris Cac CLOSED

Spain IBEX CLOSED

Italian MIB: CLOSED

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 45.84 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 53.64 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    68.99  THE CROSS HIGHER BY .29 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE LOWER BY 29 BASIS PTS)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA:  5.2840 PER ONE USA DOLLAR.

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES +.25 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :46.48

 

BRENT :54.93

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.80%…

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.06%/.

 

 

 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1352 ( down 63 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:111.36 UP 0.922 (YEN down 92 BASIS POINTS/

.

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 97.08 up 50 cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.2633 down 49 POINTS FROM MONDAY

the Turkish lira close: 5.2835

the Russian rouble:  68.74 down .04 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( down 4 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar: 1.3588 UP 2 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 6.8854  (ONSHORE)

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH):  6.8959 (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.25%

 

The Dow closed UP 1084.62 POINTS OR 4.98%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 361.54 POINTS OR 5.84%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  30.50 CLOSED DOWN 5.57 

 

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.813%  .LIBOR  RATES ARE RISING/

 

FROM 2.822

 

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY

 

Pension Panic Sparks Biggest Dow Point Rise In History

 

Where is Cooperman: “It’s all the algos’ fault the Dow is up 1000 points”

Investors welcomed Kevin Hassett’s assurance that Jerome Powell’s job is “100 percent” safe.

But the biggest driver of today’s exuberance appears to be actual pension rebalancing or front-running the pension panic.

And today’s explosion comes just as CTAs turned short and hedge funds have the lowest net exposure to the market in 3 years…

And just like that a short-squeeze was enabled…the biggest short squeeze since the day after Brexit…

And stocks went vertical…Biggest daily gain in Nasdaq since Aug 2011

 

On March 3, 2009 Obama marked the end of the financial crash with these words:

“what you’re now seeing is profit and earning ratios are starting to get to the point where buying stocks is a potentially good deal if you’ve got a long-term perspective on it”

On Dec 25, 2018 did Trump mark the end of the rout with these words:

“We have companies, the greatest in the world, and they’re doing really well. They have record kinds of numbers. So I think it’s a tremendous opportunity to buy. Really a great opportunity to buy.”

Which followed a slide lower after excellent Plunge Protection from China’s National Team overnight…

As they all tried to explain, “all is well”…

Europe remains closed, celebrating Boxing Day.

This is the biggest Dow point rise in history…

 

 

Best day for bank stocks since April 2011…

 

HYG (HY Bonds) soared on the day – biggest gain since Dec 2014

 

 

Treasury Bond yields spiked back higher on the week…

 

With 30Y back above 3.00%…back to pre-Fed dive levels…

 

The Dollar surged, taking out Sunday’s gap-down open, back into the Fed-ramp range…

zerohedge@zerohedge

“We have spent the week unwinding our short dollar position as expediently as possible. I promise you every day when I woke up, I was checking for rogue waves.”

16 people are talking about this

Cryptos drifted lower on the day, Bitcoin Cash lower on the week…

 

Despite the dollar strength, copper and silver gained, gold limped lower, and oil exploded…

 

This is WTI’s best day since Nov 2016…

 

Silver surged relative to gold – erasing two weeks of underperformance…

 

While gold (in USD) was flat today, it surged against the yuan to the highest since April 2017…

 

Finally, we note that the eurodollar market has now priced out all rate-hikes for 2019…

But since The Fed hiked rates, stocks are still suffering…

 

 

END

market trading

Wednesday:

Dow loses its 300 point early gain.  It then rebounds after it is confirmed that Powell is 100% safe and then tumbles again

(courtesy zerohedge)

Dow Loses 300 Point Gain, Rebounds After Hassett Says Powell Is “100 Percent Safe”, Then Tumbles Again

It was set to be another dismal day for traders, with the Dow set to fade the entire 282 points jump hit shortly after start of trading after Trump’s Christmas Day trading reco to “buy the dip”, when with the Dow at session lows and set for its 5th straight decline, White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett the only White House economy official who still appears to have some credibility left in the eyes of investors, and whose jawboning abilities might still elicit a positive impact on equity prices – came on Fox Business to deny rumors that President Trump is considering firing Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, whose job is “100 percent” safe, while pointing out that, despite the abysmal market performance, we’re looking at “perhaps the best Christmas ever” in terms of the economy.

Hassett also insisted that Trump is “happy” with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and has no plans to fire the Treasury  Secretary.

Hassett’s comments sparked an immediate rebound in the Dow…

…. and then the Dow slumped again after algos realized that by confirming Powell will stick around, it actually make the bearish case for stocks that much stronger, as it means that Powell’s hawkishness will persist for far longer than if Trump were to replace him with some dove such as the “short” Yellen.

end
THEN:  PANIC BIDDING in a illiquid market
(zerohedge)

Stocks Are Panic-Bid

It seems everything is awesome again…

Eric Scott Hunsader@nanexllc

Is 1000 points enough Sir?
–PPT to Mnuchin

Eric Scott Hunsader@nanexllc

Low key you fools! And lay off the Pina Coladas.
–Mnuchin to PPT

US equity markets are exploding higher – with Nasdaq up a stunning 3.5% – tagging Monday’s cash opening level…

With Dow futures up over 600 points…

Thanks to another big short squeeze that started at 11am ET…

What happens next?

END

Junk bond yields rise as well as investment grade bonds as credit spreads continue to rise.  Not a very good sign

(courtesy zerohedge)

Beyond The “Obscene Point”: Credit Spreads, Junk Bond Yields Soar

Another day, another rout in the credit market which no longer seems to follow the daily gyrations in stocks but has developed a mind of its own in the past month. And there appears top be just one thing on said mind: selling.

One week after some wondered if we have crossed the “obscene point” in the credit selloff, and it is now time to start waving bonds – both IG and High Yield – in, the answer appears to have been no, because as the chart below shows, Investment-grade bond spreads widened another 3 basis points to 168 basis points on Monday, the highest since June 2016. The index has widened every day since Dec. 14.

At the same time, the spread on the high-yield index rose to 530 bps on Monday, the highest since Aug. 4, 2016, spiking 16 bps higher from the prior day’s close.

And with spreads blowing out even as TSYs were stable, it will not come as a surprise that junk bond yields reached fresh highs on Monday amid turmoil in stock markets, with the YTW closing at 8.07% Monday vs 7.97% on Friday, the highest since April 2016 and now less than 2% away from the yield highs observed in early 2016 during the peak of the energy credit rout in late 2015/early 2016.

While there is still a way to go until we cross recent cycle highs, the concern is that unlike in 2016 when the junk bond plunge was mostly a function of energy credits, this time it is far more widespread and affects names from virtually every sector.

end

We have been warning you on this.  Today we witnessed an abysmal 5 yr auction which priced at a yield of 2.652.  However this tailed the when issued by a huge, and record 2.3 basis points as it seems that bidders are just not showing up to purchase the mammoth amount of USA debt forthcoming i.e. 1.2 trillion usa dollars to fund Trump’s stimulus plan.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Abysmal 5Y Auction Sees Huge Tail, Plunging Indirects And Bid To Cover

Two days after a very ugly 2Y Treasury auction on Monday (which preceded a flash crash in 2Y yield just ahead of the bond market closure on Christmas Eve), which prompted us to note that “the bond market is sending a worrying signal”, moments ago the Treasury sold $41 billion in 5Y notes in what could only be called an abysmal auction as the bond market has just sent an even more worrying signal.

The auction, which priced at a high yield of 2.652%, or 23 bps below the November auction’s 2.88%, tailed the When Issued by a massive, if not record 2.3bps, the widest tail going back for over 3 years.

But, like during Monday’s 2Y auction, the biggest surprise was the plunge in the bid to cover, which crashed from 2.49 to 2.09, the lowest since July 2009 (indicatively, the 2Y BTC tumbled from 2.652 to 2.31, the lowest since December 2008) as buyers have continued to pull back.

This was also reflected in the internals, where Indirects took down just 53.6%, the lowest since January 2016. And with dealers taking down 9.6%, or slightly below last month’s 10.3%, left dealers with a hefty 36.8%, a substantial bounce from last month’s 29.8%.

Is this a surprise? Not really – consider what we said on Monday:

With US bond issuance only set to rise in the coming year to fund Trump’s stimulus program which is set to become a headwind to the economy in 2019, expect many more such ugly auctions; it is no coincidence that #4 of Deutsche Bank’s top risks for 2019 was “tailing US Treasury auctions and/or declining bid-to-cover rations” – we just got a vivid example of one today.

Today, we got the latest confirmation that this ominous assessment appears to be right, as suddenly buyers are showing very little interest in US TSY auctions, which for a nation that has a $1 trillion deficit to fund in2019, will be a major problem.

market data/

My goodness, this was a huge drop as the Richmond Fed mfg index collapsed from a reading of 14 to minus 8 in the latest report on activity in the area in November.  The Richmond Fed data is a soft data report

(courtesy zerohedge)

US Economy Snaps As Richmond Fed Plummets Most On Record

Those seeking early indicators of an imminent recession just got it courtesy of the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, which tumbled from 14 in November to -8, crushing expectations of a modest rebound to 15, weighed down by drops in the indexes for new orders and shipments.

With analysts expecting the Richmond Fed to print between 12 and 17, the -8 print was a 20 sigma event relative to expectations.

The internals were an unmitigated disaster, with the shipments index print of -25 was its lowest reading since April 2009 even as the third component, the index for employment, rose. Additionally, respondents indicated a deterioration in local business conditions, as this index fell to −25, its lowest reading on record. Most other metrics were dismal:

  • Shipments fell to -25 after 12 the prior month
  • Local business conditions printed the lowest on record at -25 after 5 last month
  • New order volume slowed to -9 after 17 the prior month
  • Order backlogs fell to -18 after 15 the prior month
  • Capacity utilization slowed to -16 after 9 the prior month
  • Inventory levels of finished goods increased to 13 after 2 last month
  • Inventory levels of raw goods rose to 15 after 5 last month

The survey results suggested employment growth among many manufacturing firms in December, but firms continued to struggle to find workers with the necessary skills. Respondents expected this problem to continue in the coming months but anticipated continued employment growth as well.

Meanwhile margins continued to get squeezed as both prices paid and prices received by manufacturing firms grew in December, however the growth of prices paid continued to outpace growth of prices received, indicating that profit margins are becoming increasingly squeezed.

And the scariest chart: the monthly change in the composite index was the biggest drop on record.

Was this the first canary in the coalmine to signal the imminent US recession? Look for other high frequency indicators to confirm the sudden slowdown in the US economy.

USA ECONOMIC STORIES OF INTEREST

Baltimore on fire;

(courtesy zerohedge)

SWAMP STORIES

Trump wants his wall and the shutdown will go on for as long as it takes

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump On Shutdown: “Whatever It Takes We’re Going To Have A Wall”

President Donald Trump on Wednesday said that he is prepared for a lengthy shutdown, and said he would do “whatever it takes” when asked how long he would wait to get the $5 billion he has demanded for his US-Mexico border wall.

 

 

.

https://globalnews.ca/video/embed/4793890/

T

T

The holdout has triggered a partial shutdown of the federal government which is now in its fifth day.

Speaking from a surprise visit to the troops in Iraq, Trump blamed the shutdown on Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), who is expected to assume the role of Speaker of the House on January 3.

Trump also defended his decision last week to pull US troops out of Syria – a move which led to the abrupt resignation of Defense Secretary James Mattis and leading US diplomat Brett McGurk.

“I think a lot of people are going to come around to my way of thinking. It’s time for us to start using our head,” Trump told reporters at the Al Asad Air Base located west of Baghdad, where he and first lady Melania Trump spent approximately three hours on the ground with US troops.

Trump added that he has no plans to withdraw US troops from Iraq, however, adding “In fact we could use this as the base if we wanted to do something in Syria.”

Jennifer Epstein

@jeneps

Trump told us he has “no plans at all” to pull U.S. forces out of Iraq, says it can be used as a base for remaining ISIS in Syria. ⁰”If we see something happening with ISIS that we don’t like, we can hit them so fast and so hard they really won’t know what the hell happened.”

The President also noted that he was in no rush to replace Mattis – and that Deputy Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan, who Trump named on Sunday as a temporary successor to begin on January 1, “could be there for a long time.”

 

end
SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
and special thanks to Chris Powell of GATA for sending this down for us:
I WILL SEE YOU ON THURSDAY
H
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One comment

  1. themagicbusguy · · Reply

    Thanks Harvey

    Like

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