DEC 28/DOW FALTERS AFTER A FAKE BUY PROGRAM: DOW SINKS 76 POINTS/NASDAQ RISES A TINY 5 POINTS/GOLD RISES ANOTHER $2.20 TO $1280.80// SILVER RISES 10 CENTS TO $15.36/BIG DEVELOPMENTS INSIDE SYRIA WITH RESPECT TO THE KURDS/BRANDON SMITH: A MUST READ !!/SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT/

 

 

 

GOLD: $1280.80 UP $2.20 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSINGS)

Silver:   $15.36 UP 10 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  1280.90

 

silver: $15.39

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold and silver:

DEC

 

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  DEC CONTRACT: 29 NOTICE(S) FOR 2900 OZ (0.0902 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  7515 NOTICES FOR 751500 OZ  (23.374 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR DECEMBER

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR  nil  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 4384 for 21,920,000

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE  $3572:  UP 10

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $3836  UP 272 

 

end

REMEMBER THAT OPTION’S EXPIRY ENDS THIS MONDAY SO EXCEPT OUR USUAL GOLD/SILVER WHACKING TOMORROW AND PROBABLY EARLY MONDAY.

XXXX

JPMorgan or Goldman Sachs are taking a huge issuance (stopping) of gold at the comex.

today  0

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: DECEMBER 2018 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,277.300000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 12/27/2018 DELIVERY DATE: 12/31/2018
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
072 H GOLDMAN 28
737 C ADVANTAGE 19
905 C ADM 1
991 H CME 10
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 29 29
MONTH TO DATE: 7,515

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST FELL BY AN CONSIDERABLE SIZED  2679 CONTRACTS FROM 176,138 DOWN TO 173,459 DESPITE YESTERDAY’S STRONG 22 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEXTODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM  AUGUST’S  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WE NOW HAVE JUST LESS THAN 22 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

2397 EFP’S FOR DECEMBER AND 0 FOR MARCH AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 2397 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 2397 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 2397 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 11.98 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 22 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST SIX MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR NOVEMBER AND

NOW 21.925 MILLION OZ INITIALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF DEC: 31,080 CONTRACTS (FOR 19 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 31080 CONTRACTS) OR 155.40 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 1635 CONTRACTS OR 8.178 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF DEC:  155.40 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 22.14% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2018 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:           2,832.45    MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR JAN 2018:                                              236.879     MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR FEB 2018:                                               244.95       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MARCH 2018:                                        236.67       MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR APRIL 2018:                                           385.75        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR MAY 2018:                                             210.05        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JUNE 2018:                                           345.43         MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR JULY 2018:                                            172.84          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR AUGUST 2018:                                      205.23          MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION FOR SEPTEMBER 2018:                                 167,05          MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR OCTOBER 2018:                                     224.875        MILLION OZ

ACCUMULATION FOR NOVEMBER /2018:                                 247.18         MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2659 DESPITE THE 22 CENT GAIN IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX //MONDAY..THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 2397 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE LOST A TINY SIZED: 282 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 2397 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 2679 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 22 CENT GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $15.26 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. .867 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 124% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT DEC MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR nil OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./AND NOW DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY 5462 CONTRACTS UP TO 444,187 WITH THE STRONG GAIN IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(A RISE IN PRICE OF $8.65//YESTERDAY’S TRADING) 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A GOOD  SIZED 10,849 CONTRACTS:

 

DECEMBER HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 10,849 CONTACTS  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 444,187. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN STRONG SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 16,311 CONTRACTS:  5462 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 10,849 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN: 16,311 CONTRACTS OR 1,631,100 OZ = 50.73 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS VERY GOOD DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A STRONG GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ YESTERDAY TO THE TUNE OF  $8.65

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 8906 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF DEC : 169,945 CONTRACTS OR 16,994,500 OZ OR 528.60 TONNES (19 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 8944 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 19 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 528.60 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2017, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 528.60/2550 x 100% TONNES = 20.70% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN DECEMBER ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2018 TO DATE:     7306.03  TONNES   *SURPASSED ANNUAL PROD’N

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR JANUARY 2018:           653.22  TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR FEBRUARY 2018:         649.45 TONNES  (20 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MARCH 2018:             741.89 TONNES  (22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR APRIL 2018:                 713.84 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S FOR MAY 2018:                   693.80 TONNES ( 22 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JUNE 2018                      650.71 TONNES  (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR JULY 2018                       605.5 TONNES     (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR AUG. 2018                      488.54  TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR SEPT 2018                       470.64 TONNES   (19 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR OCT. 2018                        543.92 TONNES  (23 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR NOV 2018:                        552.88 TONNES (21 TRADING DAYS)

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP FOR DEC  2018                                                    (20 TRADING DAYS)

TOTAL FOR 2018

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

Result: A GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 5462 WITH THE GAIN IN PRICING ($8.65) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 10,849 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 10,849 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 16,311 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

10,849 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 5462 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (in tonnes, the GAIN in total oi equates to 50.73 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS GOOD  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE GAIN OF $8.65 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX

 

 

we had: 29 notice(s) filed upon for 2900 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD UP $2.20 TODAY 

 

 

ANOTHER HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY: AND THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD!!

A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.35 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD DESPITE THE RISE IN PRICE

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/GLD INVENTORY   787.67 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 787.67 tonnes.

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS  TODAY:

 

 

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.223 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 2679 CONTRACTS from 176,138 UP TO 173,459  AND MOVING FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

2397 CONTRACTS FOR DECEMBER. 0 CONTRACTS FOR MARCH AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2397 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 2679 CONTRACTS TO THE 2397 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A TINY LOSS  OF 282 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 1.41 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER. AND NOW 21.925 MILLION OZ  STANDING IN DECEMBER.

 

 

RESULT: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 22 CENT PRICING GAIN THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD ANOTHER STRONG SIZE 2397 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 10.81 POINTS OR 0.44% //Hang Sang CLOSED /The Nikkei closed DOWN 62.85 POINTS OR 0.31% / Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.95%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8756 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 45.16 dollars per barrel for WTI and 52.52 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN 

//ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.8756 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8811: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA/

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

JAPAN/USA

this is going to hurt the  USA terribly.  Japan has reduced tariffs on products sold by the USA’s largest agriculture competitors.  These include Australia, Canada, Chile and New Zealand.  They all belong in the TPP but the USA opted out.  The Japanese move could dramatically reduce the USA market share into Japan

( zerohedge)

 

3 C/  CHINA

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

 

 

i)EUROPE/ECB

 

 

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

 

i)TURKEY//EU

Should the EU pull the plug on the EU/Turkey membership?  As we have pointed out to you on several occasions, Turkey has faced east not west.

( Bekdil/Gatestone Institute)

ii)Turkey/Syria/Russia/USA

Big development today:  with the announcement of the USA pullout and the removal of YPG from Syrian Kurdistan,
the Kurds invite the Assad’s Syrian army to take control of Manbij.  Because YPG are gone, Erdogan announces that there is no need to invade the north of Syria.  The Kurds have turned their backs on the uSA and face towards Russia
(courtesy zerohedge)

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

 

 

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

i)Venezuela

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

 

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING

It is essential to see bond yields rise  (bond prices fall) to confirm the huge stock purchases.  The opposite is going on and thus do not pay attention to the latest stock price advance. It is merely a portfolio/pension shuffle where operations must sell bonds and purchase stocks to rebalance

( zero hedge)

ii)Market data/

Soft data,Chicago pMI prints higher than estimates and rejects the Richmond Fed collapse.  This is a soft data entry so do not pay much attention to this.

( zerohedge)

 

 

 

 

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

Brandon Smith is one of the smartest guys on the planet.  His predictions are rarely wrong. Today he describes the end game as to how it will be played out.  This is an essential read..

( Brandon Smith)

iv)SWAMP STORIES

Trump now threatens to close the entire Southern border if the Democrats do not cave in on wall funding

( zerohedge)

 

 

 

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN SURPRISINGLY ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 5462 CONTRACTS UP to an OI level 444,187 WITH THE GAIN IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($8.65) IN YESTERDAY’S COMEX TRADING).FOR TWO YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE. ONCE WE GET TO FIRST DAY NOTICE, THEN THE OPEN INTEREST RISES AND AGAIN THEY DID NOT DISAPPOINT US.

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DEC..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 10,849 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

FOR DECEMBER:  10,849 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  10,849 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  16,311 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 10,849 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 5462 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 16,311 contracts OR 1,631,100  OZ OR 50.73 TONNES.

 

We are now in the active contract month of December and we now have a total of 29 contracts stand in December so we had a loss of 49 contracts.  We had 47 notices served yesterday, so we LOST 2 contracts or 200 oz will NOT stand as these guys morphed into London based forwards and as well as accepting a fiat bonus.

 

 

The next delivery month after December is January which saw it FALL TO 913 FOR A LOSS OF 266 CONTRACTS.  February GAINED A CONSIDERABLE 3253 contracts to stand at 322,531 contracts

We have 1 more reading day before we reach first day notice for the non active January gold comex contract month.

 

FOR COMPARISON TO THE 2017 CONTRACT MONTH and January 2018 contract month

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE DEC 1/2017: 37.035 TONNES STOOD FOR DELIVERY

EVENTUALLY BY DEC 31.2017:  28.592 TONNES STOOD AND THE REST MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

ON JANUARY 1/2018: 1.297 TONNES STOOD FOR DELIVERY

EVENTUALLY ON JAN 31.2018: 2.17 TONNES STOOD FOR DELIVERY AS QUEUE JUMPING STARTED IN EARNEST AT THE GOLD COMEX

 

 

WE HAD 29 NOTICES FILED AT THE COMEX FOR 2900 OZ. (0.0902 tonnes)

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total silver OI FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE 2679 CONTRACTS FROM 176,138 DOWN TO 173,459 (AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S OI COMEX GAIN  OCCURRED DESPITE A 22 CENT GAIN IN PRICING.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DECEMBER AND, WE WERE  INFORMED THAT WE HAD A STRONG SIZED 2397 EFP CONTRACTS:

 

FOR DECEMBER: 2397 CONTRACTS, FOR MARCH 0 CONTRACTS, AND ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS.  THESE EFPS WERE ISSUED TO COMEX LONGS WHO RECEIVED A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  THE TOTAL EFP’S ISSUED: 2397.  ON A NET BASIS WE LOST 216 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A  2679 CONTRACT LOSS AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 2397 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:   282 CONTRACTS...AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 22 CENT GAIN IN PRICING// YESTERDAY

 

 

 

 

We are now in the non active delivery month of DECEMBER and here in this front month of December we now have 1 contract standing for a LOSS of 63 contracts.  We had 63 contracts stand for delivery yesterday so we gained 0 contracts or an additional NIL oz will stand for delivery as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus.

 

After  December we have the non active  January contract month and here we saw a LOSS of 561 contracts DOWN to 1021 contracts.  February saw a 24 contract GAIN to stand at 359. March, the next big delivery month after December saw a LOSS of 2270 contracts UP to 141,964

WE HAVE 1 MORE READING DAY BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE IN THE NON ACTIVE JANUARY SILVER CONTRACT MONTH:

FOR COMPARISON TO THE COMEX 2017 CONTRACT MONTH AND JANUARY 2018 CONTRACT MONTH

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE DEC 1.2017 WE HAD A RATHER LARGE: 19.47 MILLION OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY

BY THE END OF DECEMBER:  33.295 MILLION OZ AS QUEUE JUMPING WAS THE NAME OF THE GAME IN SILVER.

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE JAN 1/2018 CONTRACT MONTH WE HAD A GOOD 2.695 MILLION OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY’

AT THE CONCLUSION OF JAN/2018 WE HAD 3.650 MILLION OZ STAND AS QUEUE JUMPING WAS THE NORM FOR SILVER

.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We had 0 notice(s) filed for NIL OZ for the DEC, 2018 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX

 

PRELIMINARY COMEX VOLUME FOR TODAY: 156,659 contracts,

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  223,815  contracts

volumes at the comex for both gold and silver are much less than usual.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FINAL standings for  DEC/GOLD

DEC 28-/2018.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
128.600 oz
oz
Scotia
4 kilobars
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz 4020.282 oz

Brinks

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

 

 

 

 

32,030.597 oz

HSBC

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
29 notice(s)
 2900 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
2 contracts
(200 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
7515 notices
751500 OZ
23.374 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 1 dealer entries:

i) Into Brinks: 4020.282 oz

 

total dealer deposits: 4020.282  oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had 0 kilobar entries

 

we had 0 deposits into the customer account

 

total gold customer deposits;  nil oz

 

we had 0 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

 

 

total gold withdrawing from the customer;  nil oz

 

we had 1  adjustments….
i)Out of Delaware:
99.740 oz was adjusted out of the customer account and this landed into the dealer account of Delaware

FOR THE DEC 2018 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 29 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the FINAL total number of gold ounces standing for the DEC/2018. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (7515) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC. (29 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (29 x 100 oz per contract) equals 751,500 OZ OR 23.374 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this  active month of DECEMBER

 

Thus the FINAL standings for gold for the DEC/2018 contract month:

No of notices served (7515 x 100 oz)  + {29)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (29 x 100 oz )which equals 751,500 oz standing OR 23.374 TONNES in this  active delivery month of DECEMBER.

WE LOST 2 CONTRACTS OR 200 OZ WILL NOT  STAND AT THE COMEX AS THEY MORPHED INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS ACCEPTING A FIAT BONUS. QUEUE JUMPING RETURNS TO THE GOLD COMEX

 

 

 

 

 

THERE ARE ONLY 23.301 TONNES OF REGISTERED COMEX GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 23.374 TONNES STANDING FOR DECEMBER

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  749,581.350 oz or   23.301 tonnes*
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,368,666.4752oz 260.300 tonnes
*however we have 23.374 tonnes of gold ALREADY SERVED UPON against dealer inventory of 23.301 tonnes and so far we have had very little settlements  as of yet.  We generally get a settlement when we see an adjustment from the dealer side to the customer side.. We have now gone through the entire month with only one tiny adjustment from a dealer to a customer account.
we have a total of 23.374 tonnes of gold standing for metal against only 23.186 tonnes of dealer gold and .182 tonnes has been settled so far…(Dec 17)

IN THE LAST 27 MONTHS 94 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

end

And now for silver

DEC FINAL standings/SILVER

DEC 28, 2018
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
697,424.996 oz
CNT

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
4,996.400
oz
Delaware
No of oz served today (contracts)
0
CONTRACT(S)
NIL OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
1 contracts
5,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 4384 contracts

(21,920,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

we had 1 deposits into the customer account

 

i) Into JPMorgan: nil oz

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 150.55 million oz of  total silver inventory or 51.03% of all official comex silver. (152.0 million/292 million)

 

ii) Into  Delaware:  4996.400 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today: 4,996.400   oz

we had 1 withdrawals out of the customer account:
i)Out of CNT:  697,424.995 oz

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals: 697,424.995   oz

 

we had 0 adjustments

 

 

total dealer silver:  83.403 million

total dealer + customer silver:  292.624 million oz

 

 

 

 

The total number of notices filed today for the DEC 2018. contract month is represented by 0 contract(s) FOR NIL  oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in DEC., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 4384 x 5,000 oz = 21,920,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC. (1) and the number of notices served upon today (0x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the FINAL standings for silver for the DEC/2018 contract month: 4384(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of DEC( 1) -number of notices served upon today (0)x 5000 oz equals 21,925,000 oz of silver standing for the DEC contract month.  This is a strong number of oz standing for an off delivery month.

We GAINED 0 contracts or NIL additional oz will stand and these guys refused to accept a London based forward as well as negate receiving a fiat bonus. The EFP route is nothing but a cash settlement process and it is done in London to avoid detection. It is becoming quite obvious that the bankers are in urgent need of silver as we witness the constant queue jumping in silver these past 20 months.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

ESTIMATED VOLUME FOR TODAY:  57,222 CONTRACTS  … 

 

 

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 83,155 CONTRACTS… 

volumes at the comex very light considering the break out in silver.

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 83,155 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 415 million OZ  59.3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -4.30-% (DEC 28/2018)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -1.24% to NAV (DEC 28 /2018 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -4.13%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 12.99/TRADING 12.50/DISCOUNT 3.72

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

DEC 28/WITH GOLD UP $2.20 STRANGELY A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.35 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 787.67 TONNES

DEC 27/WITH GOLD UP $8.65: A MASSIVE 15.88 TONNES WAS ADDED INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 790.02 TONNES

DEC 26/WITH GOLD UP $0.15: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 774.14 TONNES

DEC 24/WITH GOLD UP $15.15: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.00 TONNES INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 774.14 TONNES

DEC 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $10.15 TODAY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.65 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 769.14 TONNES

DEC 20/WITH GOLD UP $11.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY AT 771.79 TONNES

DEC 19/WITH GOLD UP $3.15 TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 8.23 TONNES OF GOLD ENTERED THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 771.79 TONNES

DEC 18/WITH GOLD UP $1.50 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC  17 WITH GOLD UP $10.60 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 14/WITH GOLD DOWN $5.60: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 13/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 12/WITH GOLD UP $3.05 A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.24 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/SOMETHING IS BURNING…/INVENTORY RESTS AT 763.56 TONNES

DEC 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.85 A SMALL DEPOSIT OF .59 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 760.32 TONNES

DEC 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.05 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.73 TONNES

DEC 7/WITH GOLD UP $8.35/A BIG CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.51 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 759.73 TONNES

DEC 6/WITH GOLD UP $1.60: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 758.21 TONNES

DEC 5/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.25: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 758.21 TONNES

DEC 4/WITH GOLD UP $7.25: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.53 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 758.21 TONNES

DEC 3/WITH GOLD UP $13.25: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 30/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 29/WITH GOLD UP $1.30: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 28/WITH GOLD UP $9.45 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

NOV 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.60 A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 761.74 TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

DEC 28.2018/ Inventory rests tonight at 787.67 tonnes

*IN LAST 524 TRADING DAYS: 147.49 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 424 TRADING DAYS: A NET 12.51 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

DEC 28/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.233 MILLION OZ/

DEC 27/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: AN ADDITION OF 94,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317,233

DEC 26/WITH SILVER UP 27 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.139 MILLION OZ

DEC 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.139 MILLION OZ/

DEC 20/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.408 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV/ INV. RESTS AT 317.139 MILLION OZ/

DEC 19/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 751,000 OZ INTO THE SLV./INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.547 MILLION OZ/

DEC 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.796 MILLION OZ/

DEC 17/WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS TODAY/ A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 939,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.796 MILLION OZ/.

DEC 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 22 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 13/WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 12/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ

DEC 11/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY ESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 8 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 7/WITH SILVER UP 16 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.817 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY LOWERS TO 318.735 MILLION OZ/

DEC 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 321.552 MILLION OZ.

DEC 4/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 134,000 OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.552 MILLION OZ/

DEC 3/WITH SILVER UP 29 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.686 MILLION OZ/

NOV 30/WITH SILVER DOWN 17 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.22 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV /INVENTORY RESTS AT 321.686 MILLION OZ/

NOV 29/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.906 MILLION OZ.

NOV 28/WITH SILVER UP 23 CENTS TODAY: A DEPOSIT OF 188,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.906 MILLION OZ/

NOV 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.301 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 322.718 MILLION OZ/

 

 

DEC 28/2018:

 

Inventory 317.233 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.37/ and libor 6 month duration 2.88

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .51

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.63%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 3.05

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.42

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

off for Christmas

 

 
END
 
ii) GATA stories




iii) Other Physical stories
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

 

 

 

-END-

Your early FRIDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED DOWN TO 6.8756/HUGE DEVALUATION FOR THE PAST FOUR WEEKS STOPS ON TRUCE/

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.8811   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 10.81 POINTS OR 0.44%

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 25.32 POINTS OR .10%

 

 

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 62.85 POINTS OR 0.31%

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED ALL GREEN 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/USA dollar index FALLS TO 96.20/Euro RISES TO 1.1469

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. +.00/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 110.27/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 45.16 and Brent: 52.52

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE DOWN/OFF- SHORE: DOWN

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund FALLS TO +.23%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 2.72% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.41%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.49: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield FALLS TO : 4.37

3k Gold at $1278.60 silver at:15.31   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 2/100 in roubles/dollar) 69.47

3m oil into the 45 dollar handle for WTI and 52 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 110.27 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 0.9804 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1246 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year FALLING to +0.23%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.75% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.03%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.2671

 

S&P Futures Soar As Traders Pray For Stability To Close Insane Week

Following two days of violent, historic swings in the US stock market, S&P500 futures climbed to session highs, up as much as 0.9% and back over 2,500 after swinging between gains and losses following the biggest upside reversal in the index since 2010 on Thursday and the single biggest point gain in the index on Wednesday as a result of a massive, 11th-hour pension fund rebalancing trade which has seen over $60 billion shifted out of bonds and into stocks into what has been a historically illiquid market.

The US rally followed a sharp rebound in European shares and a mixed Asian session as traders struggled to make some sense of the ridiculous, wild price swings in the final sessions of the year which prompted comparisons to watching the cult favorite Pulp Fiction. The dollar tumbled and gold climbed.

The active S&P 500 future contract gained as much 0.9 percent, after dropping as much as 0.7 percent earlier in the session. Contracts on the Nasdaq 100 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5 percent and 0.6 percent, respectively. The benchmark index for American equities erased a 2.8 percent tumble late Thursday afternoon, finishing the day with a 0.9 percent gain, following a historic point gain the day prior which in turn followed the biggest ever Christmas Eve drop the day prior.

European shares, which tumbled the day prior, extended gains on Friday, after a mixed session for Asian stocks as traders struggled to make sense of wild price swings in the final sessions of the year. All sectors were in positive territory, as cyclical equities led gains in Europe, with construction materials and technology the top performers in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index according to Bloomberg.

Volatility in Europe and in the United States has spiked to highs not seen since the sharp global correction in stock markets in February.

Top European News

  • SNB Disregards Critics as Franc Keeps Negative Rates in Play
  • DIA Trading Suspended by Spanish Regulator
  • ECB Officials Request Carige Capital Increase at Meetings: Sole
  • Baloise Buys 20% Stake in Aevis Victoria’s Infracore

Earlier in Asia, Japan and China – which had their final trading day of the year Friday – had opposing fates with the Nikkei closing down 0.3% due to yen strength, while the Shanghai Composite rose 0.4% but closed below the critical 2,500 level.

Top Asian News

  • One of World’s Top LNG Users Buys Into Offshore Wind Farms
  • Japan Shares Fall, Capping Worst Annual Performance Since 2011
  • Philippines Increases Bills and Bonds Offers to 360b Pesos in 1Q
  • India Is Said to Announce Universal Basic Income Program: AajTak

Even with the latest pension rebalancing rebound, the yearly picture for world stocks remains grim, with the MSCI world equity index, which tracks shares in 47 countries, losing close to 12% so far in 2018. Indeed, the last-minute rebound is doing little to mend the damage from the worst year for global stocks since 2008 and the gains in haven assets show investors are still looking for value in safer investments. Plenty of event risks loom in the coming quarter, from the U.K. vote on the Brexit deal to U.S.-China trade talks to the continuing showdown between President Donald Trump and Congress over the budget.

While stocks showed signs they might recoup more losses in the year’s final days, lingering doubts about the stability of the market sustained demand for safe-haven currencies, as the following strategist quotes demonstrate:

  • “Markets are a bit more cautious on risk appetite, with the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc gaining,” said Lee Hardman, an FX strategist at MUFG. “The dollar continues to be soft across the board as volatile stock markets are reducing the relative safe haven appeal for U.S. assets.”
  • “We’re heading into a period of higher volatility,” said Manpreet Gill, head of fixed income, currency and commodities strategy at Standard Chartered. “You need to have some dry powder on the side to take advantage of that. That’s where we particularly think that cash plays a bit of a role.”
  • “Consensus is firmly set on a 2020 recession, but the question for investors is whether they are willing to stay away from equities for all of next year when the U.S. is still expected to grow, albeit at a slower pace than this year,” said Edward Park, investment director at Brooks Macdonald Asset Management. “The current market bounce may have been catalyzed by institutional portfolio re-balancing, however valuation levels seem to be tempting investors to become incrementally more bullish.”
  • “Where stocks head from here is anyone’s guess as uncertainty looks set to seep into the first quarter of 2019”, said Ben Emons, managing director at Medley Global Advisors. “While a bounce is positive news, it’s coming with much more volatility – which normally falls when stocks rally”, he told Bloomberg TV.

Sentiment was boosted by a sliding dollar as the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index extended declines, falling to lowest level since Nov. 8, as the greenback slipped against all G-10 peers; meanwhile the Norwegian krone among top performers after rebounding from the lowest in a decade.

In fixed income, US Treasurys were slightly higher with yields dipping to 2.7556%, with the yield curve flattening with 10-year rate down almost 2bps.

Elsewhere, European bonds trade mixed, with short end of bund curve underperforming. Italian yields rose as investors made space for the last auction of the year. A strong auction of zero coupon bonds on Thursday led to a mini-rally in Italian government debt as investors saw this is a good omen for today’s up to 5 billion euro bond sale, which caps one of the largest borrowing programs. The Treasury is hoping the auction will decisively show that Italy has turned a corner after months of volatile trading on the back of fractious talks between Rome and Brussels over its spending plans.

Finally, Japan’s 10-year yield turns negative for first time since 2017.

Oil bounced with commodities and emerging-market equities. Oil prices rebounded and took back some of the ground lost this week, but remained close to their lowest levels in more than a year as rising U.S. inventories and concern over global economic growth kept markets under pressure. Brent crude oil was up $1.10, or 2.1 percent, at $53.26 a barrel, having earlier risen more than 3 percent. It had dropped 4.2 percent on Thursday.

Spot gold, which has benefited this week from the global market turmoil, was just slightly higher at $1,276.33 an ounce following an ascent to a six-month high of $1,279.06 on Wednesday.

Aside from any further developments on the American political front – where departures of senior officials and tensions at the White House over the Federal Reserve have unsettled investors, upcoming manufacturing PMIs from China and the U.S. may be a focus in the coming week. Among key events next quarter are the Brexit-deal vote in the U.K., a U.S.-China trade-talks deadline and the annual gathering of China’s legislature.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.8% to 2,515.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 1.4% to 334.23
  • MXAP up 0.4% to 146.06
  • MXAPJ up 0.8% to 475.47
  • Nikkei down 0.3% to 20,014.77
  • Topix down 0.5% to 1,494.09
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.1% to 25,504.20
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 2,493.90
  • Sensex up 0.8% to 36,093.34
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1% to 5,654.32
  • Kospi up 0.6% to 2,041.04
  • German 10Y yield rose 0.3 bps to 0.234%
  • Euro up 0.2% to $1.1450
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 8.2 bps to 2.389%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.6 bps to 1.402%
  • Brent futures up 2.1% to $53.23/bbl
  • Gold spot little changed at $1,276.90
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 96.44

Top Overnight News

  • The S&P 500 erased a 2.8 percent drop in an afternoon rebound, finishing the day with a 0.9 percent gain. It’s the first time since May 2010 that the index has posted such a huge upward reversal, data compiled by Bloomberg show
  • The partial U.S. government shutdown will probably continue into 2019 after House Republicans said Thursday they didn’t plan any votes this week and President Donald Trump said most federal employees losing pay because of the closure are Democrats
  • The Trump administration granted the first exclusions from tariffs imposed on China for intellectual property violations, according to a Federal Register notice scheduled for Dec. 28 publication
  • Unease has strengthened within the Bank of Japan’s policy board over the outlook for prices as cheaper oil and mobile phone charges threaten to drive inflation toward zero and possibly back into negative territory
  • Japan’s factory output dropped again in November, marking the sixth contraction in eight months. The data and risks to the outlook suggest limited strength in any rebound in coming months as businesses navigate the U.S.-China trade war, Brexit and slowing global growth
  • China’s economy slowed for a seventh straight month in December, as the trade war, subdued domestic demand and decelerating factory inflation combined to undercut growth. That’s the signal from a Bloomberg Economics gauge aggregating the earliest-available indicators on business conditions and market sentiment
  • Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte played down the risk of Italy’s huge level of debt as he reaffirmed confidence in his coalition government’s controversial economic policies.
  • China will speed up approvals for securities firms and fund-company joint ventures in which foreign investors have majority stakes, a senior official said, another sign that policy makers are pressing ahead with efforts to open up the country’s financial system.
  • Japan’s 10-year bond yield fell below zero for the first time since Sept. 2017, as slide in global equities fueled a rally in government debt around the world.

US Event Calendar

  • 9:45am: Chicago Purchasing Manager, est. 60.3, prior 66.4
  • 10am: Pending Home Sales MoM, est. 1.0%, prior -2.6%
  • 10am: Pending Home Sales NSA YoY, prior -4.6%

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)FRIDAY MORNING/ THURSDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 10.81 POINTS OR 0.44% //Hang Sang CLOSED /The Nikkei closed DOWN 62.85 POINTS OR 0.31% / Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.95%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.8756 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 45.16 dollars per barrel for WTI and 52.52 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN 

//ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP AT 6.8756 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.8811: HUGE DEVALUATION/PAST SEVERAL DAYS RESUMES// TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

 

i)North Korea/South Korea/USA/

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

this is going to hurt the  USA terribly.  Japan has reduced tariffs on products sold by the USA’s largest agriculture competitors.  These include Australia, Canada, Chile and New Zealand.  They all belong in the TPP but the USA opted out.  The Japanese move could dramatically reduce the USA market share into Japan

(courtesy zerohedge)

“Imminent Collapse”: US Farmers Prepare For Massive Losses In Japan 

On December 30, Tokyo will begin reducing tariffs and easing quotas on products sold by US’ largest agriculture competitors — including Australia, Canada, Chile, and New Zealand, as part of the new 11-member Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the Wall Street Journal reported.

President Trump had removed the US from the TPP last year, alleging it would have crippled American manufacturers by minimizing duties on US imports of automobiles.

Tokyo will slash duties to other countries on Feb 1 by implementing the European Union-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) that would offer the 28-country bloc’s agricultural products to Japan, a move that could dramatically reduce US market share into the island nation in the Pacific Ocean. 

Japan, unlike China, is not playing the retaliatory tariff game with the Trump administration. Instead, they are accelerating a market-opening agenda with more than three dozen countries (ex. the US).

The new free trade push by Japan “threatens to cut into US market share and depress profits for US agriculture exporters by granting preferential access to…internal competitors,” a May report by the Agriculture Departments warned.

At a recent public hearing, a coalition of US agriculture trade groups sounded a similar alarm.

“Japan is our largest, most reliable and valuable market,” buying about half its imported wheat from Americans, said Vince Peterson, head of US Wheat Associates. “But today we face imminent collapse,” he said, as competitors will start taking American market share and sell their products at an effective tariff rate nearly 10% below those facing US producers.

Peterson told government officials the US “has not sold one kernel of wheat” to China for several months because of the trade war.

The US Meat Export Federation estimated that Japan’s new trade agreements (ex. the US) could severely damage American beef and pork exports, with expected losses of more than $1 billion within five years.

The Trump administration has said they aim to correct that “emerging disparity by laying the groundwork to negotiate America’s own free-trade agreement with Japan,” the Journal reported, adding that a new deal would reopen markets for American farmers.

However, those negotiations with Tokyo are not scheduled to start until mid-January — after both the Pacific and Europe trade deals take effect.

US producers have already reported steep declines in business as a result of Trump pulling out of the TPP as Japan explores new markets.

Kevin Smith, a vice president at Seaboard Foods LP, a Kansas-based pork producer, said his business is  “already seeing a decline” as longtime Japanese customers “develop new supply chains so they can be fully prepared to take advantage of the tariff reduction opportunities.”

The Journal notes that US farmers are horrified about the loss of market share because Japan has been one of their largest export markets.

American producers are the most significant food exporters to Japan, with at least 25% market share, ahead of the EU’s 13%.

Japan imported $11.9 billion in American agricultural products in 2017, making it their fourth-largest foreign market, after China, Canada and Mexico.

And while president Trump has argued that, overall, TPP would have harmed the American economy, for now due to lack of proper deterrence and countermeasures in place, it appears that like pulling out of TPP has forced even more pain upon America’s struggling farmers who had export routes into Japan, and who may soon need another bailout from the administration.

3 C CHINA

end

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

EUROPE/ECB

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

TURKEY//EU

Should the EU pull the plug on the EU/Turkey membership?  As we have pointed out to you on several occasions, Turkey has faced east not west.

(courtesy Bekdil/Gatestone Institute)

Turkey And EU: Can This Marriage Be Saved?

Authored by Burak Bekdil via The Gatestone Institute,

  • In Freedom House’s democracy index, Turkey belongs to the group of “not free” countries, performing worse than “partly free” countries including Mali, Nicaragua and Kenya.
  • Just as there cannot be a “not free” member of the EU, there cannot be a member that blatantly ignores rulings of the European Court of Human Rights.
  • “I think that, in the long term, it would be more honest for Turkey and the EU to go down new roads and end the accession talks … Turkish membership in the European Union is not realistic in the foreseeable future.” – Johannes Kahn, EU Enlargement Commissioner; interview in Die Welt.

 

In September 2017, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she will seek an end to talks for Turkish membership in the European Union. Pictured: Merkel and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan meet in Berlin, September 28, 2018. (Photo by Sean Gallup/Getty Images)

When Turkey first applied for full membership in the European Union in 1987, the world was an entirely different place — even the rich club had a different name: the European Economic Community. U.S. President Ronald Reagan had undergone minor surgery; British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher had been re-elected for a third term; Macau and Hong Kong were, respectively, Portuguese and British territory; the Berlin Wall was up and running; the demonstrations at the Tiananmen Square were a couple of years away; the Iran-Contra affair was in the headlines; the First Intifada had just begun; and what are today Czech Republic and Slovakia were Czechoslovakia.

In March 2003, just a few months after he was elected Prime Minister of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said that Turkey was “very much ready to be part of the European Union family.”

In October 2005, formal accession negotiations between Turkey and the EU began.

Today, 31 years after the first date, the alliance seems to be broken, with no signs in the foreseeable future of a marriage between two perfectly unsuitable adults. Knowing that, both sides in the past decade have played an unpleasant diplomatic game of pretension: not be the one that throws away the ring. This boring opera buffa is no longer sustainable.

Turkey’s democratic deficit has grown just too bitterly huge to make it compatible with Europe’s democratic culture. According to the advocacy group Freedom House:

“In addition to its dire consequences for detained Turkish citizens, shuttered media outlets, and seized businesses, the chaotic purge has become intertwined with an offensive against the Kurdish minority, which in turn has fueled Turkey’s diplomatic and military interventions in neighboring Syria and Iraq.”

In Freedom House’s democracy index, Turkey belongs to the group of “not free” countries, performing worse than “partly free” countries including Mali, Nicaragua and Kenya. The EU is certainly not a club of the “not free.”

Most recently, a legal dispute between Turkey and the EU highlighted, once again, the huge disparity between the understanding of the rule of law in Turkish and European democratic cultures. This time, Turkey and the EU clashed over the rights of a prominent Kurdish politician who has been in jail on flimsy charges of terror. In a November verdict, the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR), to which Turkey is a signatory, ruled that Turkey should swiftly process Selahattin Demirtaş’s case; the court said his pre-trial detention had gone on longer than could be justified. A Turkish court, however, ignoring the ECHR’s verdict, ruled against Demirtaş’s release from prison. The Turkish court’s decision was a clear violation of the Article 90 of the Turkish Constitution:

“In the case of a conflict between international agreements in the area of fundamental rights and freedoms duly put into effect and the domestic laws due to differences in provisions on the same matter, the provisions of international agreements shall prevail.”

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Cavuşoğlu described the ECHR ruling as motivated by politics, not the law, and asserted that the case would be determined by Turkey’s courts.

Just as there cannot be a “not free” member of the EU, there cannot be a member that blatantly ignores ECHR’s rulings.

Fortunately, there have been signs from Brussels that the “show must not go on.” In April 2017, the European Parliament called for a formal suspension of Turkey’s EU membership bid, which was already effectively frozen. In September 2017, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she will seek an end to Turkey’s membership talks.

More recently, in November, the official overseeing the EU’s future enlargement said that, in the long term, it would be “more honest” for the bloc to give up talks on membership for Turkey. EU Enlargement Commissioner Johannes Kahn toldGerman daily Die Welt“I think that, in the long term, it would be more honest for Turkey and the EU to go down new roads and end the accession talks … Turkish membership in the European Union is not realistic in the foreseeable future.” Kahn’s was honest talk, calling a cat a cat.

In fact, a month earlier than Kahn’s comments, President Erdoğan proposed a most realistic solution – although not for reasons of honesty, but merely for pre-election bluffing. Evidently he is signalling exasperation with the election process. Erdogan seems to be trying to appeal to the EU-weary, nationalistic voters ahead of Turkey’s municipal elections on March 31, 2019 that Europe’s reluctance to let Turkey into the EU is based, supposedly, on “Islamophobla”. In an October speech, Erdoğan said he would consider putting Turkey’s long-stalled bid to join the EU to a referendum.

Good idea, assuming that Turkey’s most popular ever leader should campaign for Leave (the negotiations). All the same, as always, Erdoğan was bluffing, in a seeming effort to remind EU’s leaders of Turkey’s “strategic value” for Europe. At the same time, he was playing the tough man to his usually xenophobic, conservative voter base that has grown weary of being humiliated by ‘infidel Europe.’

This author believes that there should be simultaneous EU and Turkish referenda asking the Europeans if they endorse an eventual Turkish membership, and at the same time asking the Turks whether they want to drop their bid to join.A “No” vote triumphing in either referendum should suffice formally to end Turkey’s membership process; two “Yes” votes would mean the show must go on, that the audience is happy with the opera buffa.

The unconvincing pretention that Turkey should be “kept at bay” for strategic reasons is dishonest.

“Pulling the plug” is honest but probably not practical one: no one will wish to take that historic responsibility. In addition, polling numbers suggest a decline in Turkish public opinion for membership. On the other side, in the EU, the sympathy for Turkish membership is dramatically lower than in previous years. Support for Turkey’s entrance, for instance, is at 8% in France, 5% in Germany, 8% in the UK, 5% in Denmark, 7% in Sweden and 5% in Finland. There is no way the EU average could surpass the 50% threshold.

So, let the club members and the applicant decide on a membership bid for a marriage that will never work.

end
Turkey/Syria/Russia/USA
Big development today:  with the announcement of the USA pullout and the removal of YPG from Syrian Kurdistan,
the Kurds invite the Assad’s Syrian army to take control of Manbij.  Because YPG are gone, Erdogan announces that there is no need to invade the north of Syria.  The Kurds have turned their backs on the uSA and face towards Russia
(courtesy zerohedge)

US Troops Out, Syrian Army In: Kurdish City Handed Back To Damascus As Turkey Poised To Invade

After days of Turkey mustering huge military forces poised to enter the northwestern Syrian Kurdish town of Manbij, and just as American advisers have pulled out of the area based on Trump’s broader Syria draw down, what many analysts saw as impossible throughout seven years of war has suddenly happened: the de facto autonomous Syrian Kurdish region hasformally invited the Syrian Army to take control to prevent the invading Turks from seizing it.

Damascus has now confirmed government forces have entered Manbij in a move likely to stave off a full-scale Turkish offensive. An official statement  said government forces were already entering the city in what is among the most historic moments signalling Assad is likely to take back all of natural Syria: “Considering the Arab Army’s duty and in a response to a call by the people of Manbij, the Syrian general staff announces that the Army has entered Manbij and raised the flag of the Syrian Arab Republic there,” the statement cited by Syrian media said.

Syrian pro-government channels indeed showed the national flag raised over municipal buildings in Manbij early Friday.

As pro-Turkish rebels as well as Turkey’s Army stationed forces along the province’s western border for what Ankara called an “anti-terrorist operation” around the city, with the Kurdish YPG being the target (as Ankara considers the group an extension of the outlawed PKK), the Syrian Army likewise has built up troops in the area over the past days ready to take back sovereign Syrian territory.

Shortly before handover the town to the Syrian Army, the YPG issued an official statement announcing its withdrawal to positions east of the Euphrates where it will engage remaining ISIS pockets. The YPG spokesman stated:

In conjunction with this, we invite the Syrian government forces which are obliged to protect the same country, nation and borders, to assert control over the areas our forces have withdrawn from, in particularly Manbij, and to protect these areas against a Turkish invasion.

The Syrian Army statement meanwhile declared further that the army is determined to “crush terrorism and defeat all invaders and occupiers” and to establish security for all Syrian citizens.

In response, Turkey’s President Erdogan said in a speech on Friday that with the withdrawal of the YPJ “there will be nothing for us to do there,” according to Reuters. Crucially his words came just after the Syrian Army announced its entry into Manbij.

Sarwan Wllatzheri@SarwanBarzani_

Turkish President #Erdogan says with the withdrawal of #YPG in #Manbij “there will be nothing for us to do there.

“In the current situation, we are still supporting the integrity of Syrian soil. These areas belong to Syria. Once the terrorist organizations leave the area, we will have nothing left to do there,” Erdogan told reporters after Friday prayers in Istanbul.

However, sporadic fighting between the Syrian Army and Turkish-backed jihadists could break out on the peripheries of the province.

Joshua Landis

@joshua_landis

Both Syrian forces and Turkish backed Arab militias are posturing and baring teeth at the gates of Manbij as negotiations continue.

Babak Taghvaee@BabakTaghvaee
Replying to @BabakTaghvaee

#BREAKING: Ahrar al-Sharghia Islamic terrorist group which is formed by #Turkey using ex-#AlQaeda & Al-Nusra Front terrorists just released this video claiming that they are ready to launch the offensive for capturing #Manbij now.

Embedded video

It appears that once President Trump announced a “full” and “immediate” pullout of the some 2,000-4000 US forces in northern Syria last week, Turkey, Russia, the YPG, and Damascus quickly began deal-making with the Kurds being dealt the weakest hand by the surprise US pullout. Prior to this week, there were two American military bases in Manbij: at Aoun Dadat and S’aydiyeh.

According to journalist Elijah Magnier, reporting from the ground for Al Rai Media, the rapidly moving events are historic and hugely significant in that “The Kurds are returning to Syria and therefore rejecting the USA and France.”

Magnier continued, “Today we can confirm that President Trump was/is serious about the withdrawal of his troops from the occupied province of al Hasaka-Deir Ezzor.” And the Middle East based war correspondent confirmed the major players have begun coordinating amidst still ongoing broader negotiations:

Russia coordinated with Turkey for the control of the Syrian army over Manbij. The Syrian troops raised the Russian and Syrian flags over some area of the city following the absence of all Kurdish armed presence (important) in Manbij. The case is closed. East of the Euphrates next.

No doubt Friday’s rapid developments will further frustrate the Washington pro-interventionist pundits and officials who’ve long lobbied Trump to “stay the course” in Syria, and who were enraged at his announced troop pullout; however, it now appears peace and stability may be fast returning to Syria quicker than expected.

END

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

MALAYSIA/GOLDMAN SACHS

 

7  OIL ISSUES

8. EMERGING MARKETS

Venezuela

 

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings FRIDAY morning 7:00

Euro/USA 1.1467 UP .0039 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES GREEN

 

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 110.27  DOWN 0.577 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL

GBP/USA 1.2693     UP    0.0047  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3605 DOWN .0016 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS FRIDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 39 basis point, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1469/ Last night Shanghai composite CLOSED UP 10.81 POINTS OR 0.44%

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 25.32 POINTS OR .10%

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.95%  /EUROPEAN BOURSES GREEN

 

 

 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this FRIDAY morning CLOSED  DOWN 62.85 POINTS OR 0.31%  

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED  GREEN

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 25.32 POINTS OR .10% 

 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 10.81  POINTS OR 0.44%

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.95%

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 62.85 POINTS OR 0.31%

 

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1279.45

silver:$15.09

Early FRIDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.75% !!! DOWN 5 IN POINTS from THURSDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

The 30 yr bond yield 3.03 DOWN 3  IN BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 96.20 DOWN 28 CENT(S) from  THURSDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers FRIDAY MORNING

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And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS \1: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.72% UP 4    in basis point(s) yield from THURSDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +.00%  DOWN 3   BASIS POINTS from THURSDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/EXTREMELY VOLATILE YESTERDAY…

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.42% UP 3  IN basis point yield from THURSDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.74 DOWN 1     POINTS in basis point yield from THURSDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 129 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES UP TO +.24%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.50% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY

Closing currency crosses for FRIDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1447 UP  .0017 or 17 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 110.35 DOWN  0.495 OR 50 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2696 UP .0052( POUND UP 52  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 5 basis points to 1.3627

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY closed DOWN AT 6.8785-  ON SHORE  (YUAN DOWN)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.8837(  YUAN DOWN)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.2740

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at +.00%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 2 IN basis points from THURSDAY at 2.74 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.04 UP 2 in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 96.36 DOWN 13 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for FRIDAY: 4:00 PM 

London: CLOSED UP 149.29 OR 2.27%

German Dax : CLOSED UP 177.45 POINTS OR 1.71%

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 80.13 POINTS OR 1.74%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 129.80 POINTS OR 1.55%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 259.41 POINTS OR 1.44%

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 45.38 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 52.98 1:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    69.58  THE CROSS HIGHER BY .84 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE LOWER BY 84 BASIS PTS)

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA:  5.2740 PER ONE USA DOLLAR.

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES +.24 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :45.08

 

BRENT :52.99

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.71%…

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.02%/.

 

 

 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS: 1.1449 ( UP 19 BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:110.19 DOWN 0.660 (YEN UP 66 BASIS POINTS/

.

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 96.35 DOWN 13 cent(s)/

The British pound at 5 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA: 1.2696 UP 53 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 5.2714

the Russian rouble:  69.58 down .08 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( down 8 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar: 1.3650 DOWN 29 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) : 6.8785  (ONSHORE)

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH):  6.8819 (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.24%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 76.42 POINTS OR 0.33%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 5.03 POINTS OR 0.08%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  28.36 CLOSED DOWN 1.60 

 

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.803%  .LIBOR  RATES ARE RISING/

 

FROM 2.814

 

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY

 

Stocks Soar Then Slide Following Epic Pension Buying Fake Out

It almost went according to plan.

In what was a relatively quiet market until 2pm suddenly the Dow Jones blasted higher, supported by a burst of massive buy programs, when as noted earlier we observed the highest TICK print on record, and at 2:39pm, the number of NYSE upticks surpassed downticks by a record 1,775…

… and not just one massive buy program, but we got several 1,650+ TICK prints as traders scrambled to figure out if pension buying had returned for the third day in a row.

There was just one problem, because whoever was desperate to pretend they were a pension buyer… forgot to sell bonds and with the S&P trading at session highs, treasurys remained unchanged…

…in stark contrast with yesterday’s true pension reallocation, which saw TSY yields slide as stocks jumped.

And once traders realized that this was just one giant fake out meant to force stops and squeeze shorts, they started buying… just not stocks but bonds instead, with the 10Y yield sliding as low as 2.7146%, the lowest since February 2018. And as the bond were bid, stocks tumbled losing all intraday gains.

Meanwhile, as it became clear that no real pension bid was coming, the selling returned, and stocks closed near session lows although in a far more controlled selloff than the liquidation puke observed on Monday.

Back to Treasurys, where buying across the curve was not uniform, and while 30Y yields were almost unchanged, the short end crumbled, resulting in a sharp curve steepening.

Another confirmation that there was no real pension bid today, the dollar not only did not slide as it did yesterday, but was mostly unchanged if slightly higher on the day.

Meanwhile, despite the unchanged inventory print in today’s DOE report (vs expectations of a 3+  MM drawdown) and yesterday’s API inventory build, oil rose modestly cementing December’s 11% plunge for the commodity, and the worst quarterly drop since 2014.

With the dollar going nowhere, gold and silver were mostly unchanged, and as a result have enjoyed one of the best months for the precious metals in years.

Meanwhile credit, as we noted earlier, did not buy either the Wednesday record point surge, or Thursday’s biggest intraday reversal since 2010, and instead  investment-grade bond spreads widened 3 basis points to 171bps, having widened every day since Dec. 14 and most trading sessions this quarter while junk bond also dropped as the high yield index widened 1 basis point to 531 basis points, the highest level since Aug. 4, 2016.

The average junk bond yield now above 8% for the first time since April 2016.

Finally, in what may be the biggest unspoken story of the day, the LSTA leveraged loan index tumbled to new multi-year lows: as shown below, the price of leveraged loans has been a one way train down, which together with another week of record outflows from the loan market, is the most ominous signal because should the loan market freeze up, 2019 will be nothing short of a credit disaster as billions of M&A and LBO deals lock up.

 

END

market trading

Early morning

It is essential to see bond yields rise  (bond prices fall) to confirm the huge stock purchases.  The opposite is going on and thus do not pay attention to the latest stock price advance. It is merely a portfolio/pension shuffle where operations must sell bonds and purchase stocks to rebalance

(courtesy zero hedge)

Credit Isn’t Buying It: Spreads Blow Out Amid Accelerating Liquidations

Don’t look to credit for confirmation of yesterday’s unprecedented intraday reversal out of Treasurys and into stocks.

While the S&P staged its biggest rebound since 2010 on the heels of what would eventually become the 4th biggest buy order in history, US credit spreads, which have blown out this quarter, widened even more to the highest levels since the summer of 2016 amid accelerating credit funds outflows.

As shown below, investment-grade bond spreads widened 3 basis points to 171bps on Thursday, having widened every day since Dec. 14 and most trading sessions this quarter, confirming that the recent stock purchase has not been a universal change in moody but a stock and Treasury specific reallocation trade even as credit has continued to get pounded.

Meanwhile, junk bond also dropped on Thursday, as the high yield index widened 1 basis point to 531 basis points, the highest level since Aug. 4, 2016. It’s risen a whopping 113 basis points this month…

… with the average junk bond yield now above 8% for the first time since April 2016.

The reason for the continued blow out? accelerating liquidations to fund redemptions and outflows from credit funds, with Lipper reporting that investment-grade funds saw outflows of $4.4 billion for the week ended Dec. 26, while junk bond funds registered the biggest outflows since October.

TL/DR: someone, somewhere is buying stocks, but this is far from a universal shift in sentiment because unless credit spreads tighten, it will become prohibitively expensive for companies to issue bonds and fund stock buybacks in 2019. As a reminder, buybacks have been the single biggest source of equity demand not only in 2018 but every year since the financial crisis.

end

late morning

Dow Jones drops 300 points overnight

( zerohedge)

Dow Drops 300 From Overnight Highs, Bonds & Bitcoin Bid

Dow futures tagged yesterday’s highs overnight and have now fallen over 300 points since. Treasury bonds are bid, with 10Y yields well lower on the week, and cryptos just exploded higher

While it looks like a flesh wound compared to the last two days historic panic buying ramps, stocks are being faded…

All the major US equity indices are underwater on the day now…

Bonds are well bid…

 

And Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litecoin suddenly spiked…

Is it time for stocks to catch back down to bonds?

end

Another huge buy order: not sure if it is pension related

(courtesy zerohedge)

Here They Come: Second Biggest Buy Order In History Hits, Sending Stocks Surging

“Will they, or won’t they” – that’s the question on every trader’s mind.

In the last two days, massive buy orders driven by pension reallocation trades sent stocks soaring (something even Bloomberg now admits was the catalyst for the surge) in late day trading, and with less than 2 hours left to go in today’s session, all traders wanted to know is whether pensions funds would make it a three-peat.

And while we don’t know if it is indeed pensions, or someone merely frontrunning today’s forced buying – or perhaps just pretending to be them – at precisely 2:05pm, the NYSE TICK – an indicator showing relative strength of buy and sell orders – just hit 1,735, the second highest reading on record, as an absolutely gargnatuan buy order hit…

… sending stocks to session highs.

Putting today’s massive buy program burst in context, within just 15 minutes, we had three TICK prints that were 1,631 or higher. As a reminder, yesterday’s high TICK print – which helped send the Dow nearly 900 points higher – of 1,662 was the 4th largest buy order of all time. That means that today alone we have had three absolutely massive buy programs all within just minutes of each other.

While this was a little early considering yesterday the pension bid emerged at precisely 2:30pm, perhaps pension fund managers decided to be “less predictable” today and start the buying earlier. Alternatively, it may be a trader posing as a “pension”, hoping to spark upward momentum into which to dump positions.

In any case, keep a close eye on the TICK – if this is a fake breakout, we may see some truly historic downward TICK prints over the next 90 minutes.

market data/

Soft data,Chicago pMI prints higher than estimates and rejects the Richmond Fed collapse.  This is a soft data entry so do not pay much attention to this.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Chicago PMI Prints Above Highest Estimate, Rejects Richmond Fed Collapse

Just days after a weak NY Fed print and a dramatic plunge in the Richmond Fed manufacturing index sparked concerns that the next US recession may be just around the corner, yesterday’s initial claims which came in surprisingly strong eased fears; and now, the just published December Chicago PMI index also put the Richmond Fed collapse on the backburner, with a number that was just shy of all time highs, as the index dipped modestly from 66.4 to 65.4, far above the consensus estimate of 60.3 (also above the highest analyst estimate of 65) and not too far off the all time high of 68.0 printed in December 2017.

Looking at the internals, we find that the number of components rising vs last month was three.

  • Business barometer rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
  • Prices paid rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
  • New orders rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
  • Employment rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
  • Inventories rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion
  • Supplier deliveries rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
  • Production rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion
  • Order backlogs rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion

Will January resume the uptrend in this traditionally optimistic survey, or will a delayed reflection of reality drag it down? Find out in 30 days.

end
This data point is far more reliable than the one above as it is a hard data entry.  Today Pending homes sales crash by a huge 7.7% year over year. (falling .7% month/month)… Housing is a big component of GDP
(courtesy zerohedge)

Pending Home Sales Crash 7.7%, Biggest Drop In Four Years

There was some hope for a rebound in US housing indicators, after the recent existing home sales print rebounded, but that was promptly dashed after pending home sales dropped again in November, sliding -0.7% vs the expected 1.0% increase, declining in six of the last eight months, with a cumulative loss since March of -5.9% (-8.9% annualized)…

and crashed a whopping 7.7% compared to last year, the biggest annual drop since April 2014.

This is the worst pending home sales print since June 2014.

Always eager to put lipstick on a pig, commenting on the collapse NAR chief economist Larry Yun said “the latest decline in contract signings implies more short-term pullback in the housing sector and does not yet capture the impact of recent favorable conditions of mortgage rates.”

Yun added that while pending contracts have reached their lowest mark since 2014, there is no reason to be overly concerned, and he predicts solid growth potential for the long-term.

Not everyone agrees: as Bloomberg notes, the poor results underscore the challenges as elevated prices and higher mortgage rates keep many  Americans on the sidelines of the housing market. Economists consider pending-home sales a leading indicator because they track contract signings; purchases of existing homes are tabulated when deals close, typically a month or two later.

Pending home sales fell in the Midwest and South, which both dropped more than 2 percent from the prior month, while the Northeast and West saw increases. At the same time, all four major regions sustained a drop when compared to one year ago, with the West taking the brunt of the decrease. “The West crawled back lightly, but is still experiencing the biggest annual decline among the regions because of unaffordable conditions,” Yun said.

Yun suggests that affordability challenges in the West are part of the blame for the drop in sales. Home prices in the West region have risen too much, too fast, according to Yun. “Land cost is expensive, and zoning regulations are too stringent. Therefore, local officials should consider ways to boost local supply; if not, they risk seeing population migrating to neighboring states and away from the West Coast.”

While the report doesn’t signal a dramatic collapse in housing, the recovery may have trouble gaining traction. Previously released NAR data showed purchases of previously owned houses rose for a secondstraight month and exceeded forecasts in November.

Finally, not even Larry could spin the report as bullish admitting that the latest government shutdown will harm the housing market. “Unlike past government shutdowns, with this present closure, flood insurance is not available. That means that roughly 40,000 homes per month may go unsold because purchasing a home requires flood insurance in those affected areas,” Yun said. “The longer the shutdown means fewer homes sold and slower economic growth.”

That said, he did leave off on a positive note, with Yun saying he believes that there are good longer-term prospects for home sales. “Home sales in 2018 look to close out the year with 5.3 million home sales, which would be similar to that experienced in the year 2000. But given the 17 million more jobs now compared to the turn of the century, the home sales are clearly underperforming today. That also means there is steady longer-term growth potential.”

end

USA ECONOMIC STORIES OF INTEREST

Brandon Smith is one of the smartest guys on the planet.  His predictions are rarely wrong. Today he describes the end game as to how it will be played out.  This is an essential read..

(courtesy Brandon Smith)

SWAMP STORIES

Trump now threatens to close the entire Southern border if the Democrats do not cave in on wall funding

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Threatens To Close Southern Border If Dems Don’t Cave On Wall Funding

Congress has departed for the holidays and it’s looking as if striking a deal and passing a bill to end the partial government shut down won’t happen until Congress reconvenes in the new year (and with both sides digging in their heels, many Wall Street analysts expect the affected government agencies will remain closed for at least a little while longer). But that didn’t stop President Trump from reviving his threat to close the southern border if Democrats don’t sign off on the $5 billion Trump needs to ramp up construction of his promised border wall.

“We will be forced to close the Southern Border entirely if the Obstructionist Democrats do not give us the money to finish the Wall & also change the ridiculous immigration laws that our Country is saddled with. Hard to believe there was a Congress & President who would approve!”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

We will be forced to close the Southern Border entirely if the Obstructionist Democrats do not give us the money to finish the Wall & also change the ridiculous immigration laws that our Country is saddled with. Hard to believe there was a Congress & President who would approve!

And since the US loses so much money on trade with Mexico under Nafta rules, Trump says, he would consider closing the border to be a “profit-making operation.”

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

….The United States looses soooo much money on Trade with Mexico under NAFTA, over 75 Billion Dollars a year (not including Drug Money which would be many times that amount), that I would consider closing the Southern Border a “profit making operation.” We build a Wall or…..

Trump first threatened to send in the military and close the border earlier this year, warning that if Congress wouldn’t act to prevent caravans of migrants heading north from Central America from successfully crossing into the US, that he would do so unilaterally. He eventually followed through with the first part of that threat (though he also threatened to withhold aide from Honduras and other central American countries if they failed to stop the caravans, which…well).

SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
and special thanks to Chris Powell of GATA for sending this down for us:

Giuliani calls for Mueller to be investigated for destruction of FBI evidence

President Trump’s defense lawyer pointedly accused Mueller’s office of destroying evidence by allowing text messages from now-fired FBI official Peter Strzok and his FBI lover, Lisa Page, to be erased in the Russia probe… That erasure occurred after Strzok and Page left Mueller’s team over revelations they exchanged anti-Trump text messages, including one string in which they talked about stopping Trump from becoming president…

    Giuliani said the Russia probe investigators also should be investigated for using the Christopher Steele dossier, which he called a “piece of garbage,” to justify a search warrant on a Trump adviser without telling the court it was paid for by Hillary Clinton’s campaign and the Democratic Party…

https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/422963-giuliani-calls-for-mueller-to-be-investigated-for-destruction-of-fbi-evidence

Are the Investigations the Cover-Up?

Inspector General Michael Horowitz, prosecutor John Huber, and others are looking into the corruption.  Mueller is supposedly tasked with exposing foreign influence on the Presidential election.

    But what if the ‘investigations’ are really the cover-up? What if the investigations are carefully structured to protect criminal actions rather than expose them? What if the investigations are actually being used to hide evidence from the citizenry?…

Mueller’s key role is to have nearly absolute control over what information is released to investigators or the public.  Mueller determines what Horowitz and Huber can see.  Mueller can hide anything he wants by claiming that release of the information would hinder his ‘investigation’. 

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2018/12/are_the_investigations_the_coverup.html#ixzz5anvHwooS

Indicted troll farm claims Mueller obtained ‘nude selfie’ in Russia probe [You can’t make this up!]

The company, Concord Management and Consulting, filed a motion in court that claimed Mueller is unlawfully keeping materials away from them — and casually mentioned the existence of a lewd photo…

     “Could the manner in which he collected a nude selfie really threaten the national security of the United States?” Dubelier wrote in the memo…https://nyp.st/2EQ5yZV

WaPo: Alabama attorney general probes disinformation that targeted Roy Moore’s Senate bid, saying he’s worried tight race was affected

Attorney General Steve Marshall said Thursday that the disinformation tactics deployed against Moore, a Republican, may have broken the law. Marshall said his office is beginning to gather information about the disinformation campaign, called Project Birmingham…

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2018/12/27/disinformation-campaign-targeting-roy-moores-senate-bid-may-have-violated-law-alabama-attorney-general-says/

Special counsel Robert Mueller asks to delay Roger Stone-linked conspiracy theorist Jerome Corsi’s lawsuit, citing government shutdown [Judge Leon denied Mueller’s request.]

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/27/mueller-asks-to-delay-hearing-in-jerome-corsi-lawsuit-citing-shutdown.html

Mike Bloomberg prepared to spend at least $100 million on a 2020 campaign for president if he decides to run [He’ll still lose.  Americans seldom vote for unlikeable candidates.  They won’t do it in consecutive presidential elections.]

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/26/mike-bloomberg-likely-to-spend-over-100-million-on-a-2020-campaign-for-president-if-he-chooses-to-run.html

We’re old enough to remember when the MSM inveighed against big money buying elections.  But that’s precisely what swung the House to Democrats last month.

Government exists to protect us from each other.  We can’t afford the government it would take  to protect us from ourselves.” – Ronald Reagan

end

I WILL SEE YOU ON MONDAY
H

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