FEB 12/GOLD UP $2.20 TO $1310.60/SILVER UP 3 CENTS TO $15.72 AS ALGOS HOLD BOTH METALS IN CHECK/BANK OF JAPAN NOW BEGINS TO TAPER GOVERNMENT BOND PURCHASES AS THEY ARE RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY/TRUMP NOT HAPPY WITH WALL COMPROMISE BUT STATES THAT HE WILL NOT SHUT DOWN GOVERNMENT/DOW RISES BY 272 POINTS AND NASDAQ UP 106 POINTS/MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT/

 

 

 

GOLD: $1310.60 UP $2.20 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Silver:   $15.72 UP 3 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  1310.80

 

silver: $15.71

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold and silver:

FEBRUARY

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  FEB CONTRACT: 73 NOTICE(S) FOR 7300 OZ (0.227 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  9209 NOTICES FOR 920900 OZ  (28.643 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR FEBRUARY

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR nil  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 535 for 2,675,000

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE $3621:DOWN $10

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $3650 up $17.

 

end

 

XXXX

JPMorgan or Goldman Sachs are taking a huge issuance (stopping) of gold at the comex.

today 36/73

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: FEBRUARY 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,307.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 02/11/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 02/13/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 3
661 C JP MORGAN 7
661 H JP MORGAN 29
690 C ABN AMRO 50
737 C ADVANTAGE 23 19
880 H CITIGROUP 15
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 73 73
MONTH TO DATE: 9,209

 

 

 

 

 

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 2150 CONTRACTS FROM 213,055 UP TO 215,205 WITH YESTERDAY’S 13 CENT LOSS  IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX. TODAY WE ARRIVED CLOSER TO  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WE NOW HAVE JUST LESS THAN 22 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER. AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

217 EFP’S FOR MARCH,  0 FOR APRIL, 49 FOR MAY, 0 FOR DECEMBER AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 266 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 266 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 6266 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 1.330 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 13 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST SIX MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

AND NOW 2.690 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF FEBRUARY: 6476 CONTRACTS (FOR 8 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 6476 CONTRACTS) OR 32.380 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 810 CONTRACTS OR 4.048 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF FEB:  32.38 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 4.62% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:           249.84    MILLION OZ. (CORRECTED)

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ.

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2308 DESPITE THE 13 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX //YESTERDAY..THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD  SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 266 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED: 2416 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

i.e 266 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH INCREASE OF 2150 OI COMEX CONTRACTSAND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 13 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $15.69 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAD A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST OVER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.075 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 150% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT FEBRUARY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 0 NOTICE(S) FOR nil OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND NOW FEB 2019:  2.690 MILLION OZ/
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A CONSIDERABLE SIZED 3167 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 476,170 WITH THE LOSS IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(A DROP IN PRICE OF $6.25//YESTERDAY’S TRADING).

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A GOOD  SIZED 4052 CONTRACTS:

 

MARCH HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 0 CONTACTS  APRIL 3702 CONTRACTS, DECEMBER: 350 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 476,170. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE AN A SMALL SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 885 CONTRACTS: 3167 OI CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX AND 4052 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN: 885 CONTRACTS OR 88,500 OZ = 2.75 TONNES. AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A LOSS IN THE PRICE OF GOLD/ YESTERDAY TO THE TUNE OF $6.25.

 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 2549 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY : 42,912 CONTRACTS OR 4,291,200 OZ  OR 133.47 TONNES (8 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 5551 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 8 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 133.47 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 133.47/2550 x 100% TONNES = 5.23% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN DECEMBER ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     653.62  TONNES  (CORRECTED)

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

 

Result: A CONSIDERABLE SIZED DECREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 3167 WITH THE LOSS IN PRICING ($6.25) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 4052 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 4052 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE HAD A GOOD GAIN OF 885 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

4052 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 3167 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 3.496 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH THE LOSS OF $6.25 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX

 

 

we had:  73 notice(s) filed upon for 7300 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD UP $2.20 TODAY

 

NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY

 

 

 

 

/GLD INVENTORY   802.12 TONNES

Inventory rests tonight: 802.12 tonnes.

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS  IN PRICE  TODAY:

 

NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

 

 

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.873 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 2150 CONTRACTS from 213,055 UP TO 215,205  AND MOVING CLOSER TO THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

217 CONTRACTS FOR MARCH. 49 CONTRACTS FOR MAY., FOR DECEMBER AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 266 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI GAIN AT THE COMEX OF 2150 CONTRACTS TO THE 266 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE OBTAIN A GOOD GAIN  OF 2416  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 12.08 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ  STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY..AND NOW 2.690 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY.

 

 

RESULT: A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX WITH THE 13 CENT PRICING GAIN THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED 266 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 18.00 POINTS OR 0.68% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 27.49 POINTS OR .10%  /The Nikkei closed UP 531.94 POINTS OR 2.61%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.33%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.7704 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil UP to 53.42 dollars per barrel for WTI and 62.91 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN //.

 ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.7704 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7788: / TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

 

 

i)North Korea//USA

Trump states that North Korea could become an economic power if talks succeed

( zerohedge)

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

i)Quite clear:  The Bank of Japan is running out of assets to purchase as they taper their JGB by another 20 billion yen.

( zerohedge)

ii)Today is the 20 yr anniversary of the Bank of Japan cutting rates to zero.  Prices are basically the same as 20 years ago.

( zerohedge)

 

 

 

3 C/  CHINA

 

 

i) CHINA/USA

The China/USA trade deal deadline will likely be extended

( zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

i)UK

A Jaguar bankruptcy is only a matter of time and the key development is its poor showing in China

(courtesy zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Russia/USA/EU

So what else is new:  the USA and the EU are going to slap new sanctions on Russia for their incursion into the Kerch strait which they had a right to do.

(courtesy zero hedge)

Turkey

Food prices escalate dramatically for two reasons:  the lower Lira and then price gouging. Erdogan then began attacking food vendors as terrorists and traders.  Is Erdogan losing touch with his people?

(courtesy zerohedge)

Russia/Ukraine/USA

Russia to the USA:

not a very good idea to hold drills in the Black Sea;

( zerohedge)

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

i)VENEZUELA/USA

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

i)The story was brought to you yesterday.  Italy’s Salvini states that the gold reserves belong to the people and not to government. Members of his party claim that in order to spend one cent they need 2/3 majority in a vote which is unlikely to happen.  What if as Chris Powell states that when they try and retrieve the gold they find only a moth eaten promissory note from the BIS or JPMorgan.
( Chris Powell/London’s Financial times)
ii)Technical analysis for gold/silver by Craig Hemke

(Craig Hemke/Sprott)

iii)the Canadian Law firm Sotos agrees to have Deutsche bank settle on only 5.5 million dollars to settle gold/silver market rigging

( zerohedge)

iv)Despite the fact that the law firm does not communicate with us, the Canadian class action suit continues against 8 other banks

( GATA/Chris Powell)

v)No doubt about it;  China is signalling gold buying “to diversify its reserves” against the dollar.  When the world’s economies crack, it will be the yuan that survives due to gold backing

( zerohedge)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING

ii)Market data/

a)Small business optimism plunges to the lowest level of Trump’s presidency

( zerohedge)

b)A good JOLTS report showing USA job openings soaring to an all time high and 800,000 more than the fake “unemployed workers”

( zerohedge)

 

 

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

i)Trump not happy with the border wall compromise but he will probably pass it and then go for emergency measures for the rest of the funds. He is open to let Chinese tariff deadline slide if they are close to a deal
( zerohedge)

ii)The Republican dominated Senate Intel committee confirms no collusion with Russia to interfere with the election

(courtesy zerohedge)

iv)SWAMP STORIES

a)John Solomon of the Hill gives mounting evidence that it was the Democrats that colluded with Russia and not Trump

important…

( zerohedge)

b)Justin Fairfax had two staffers resign following the second accusation of sexual assault

( zerohedge)

Trump calls for Rep Omar to resign as conservatives fume over democrat double standards. They should put Stephen King back in and then fight it out.

(courtesy zerohedge)

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

 

end

 

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN FELL BY AN GOOD SIZED 3167 CONTRACTS DOWN TO A LEVEL OF 476,170 WITH THE LOSS IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($6.25) IN YESTERDAY’S COMEX TRADING).FOR THREE YEARS STRAIGHT WE HAVE NOTICED THAT ONE WEEK PRIOR TO FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND EFP’S NOTICES EXPONENTIALLY INCREASE AS WELL AS WE WITNESS THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST COLLAPSE. ONCE WE GET TO FIRST DAY NOTICE, THEN THE OPEN INTEREST RISES., THE REASON FOR THE COLLAPSE IN OPEN INTEREST IS THE FORCED LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS.

 

 

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JANUARY..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 4052 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

FOR MARCH:  0. FOR APRIL 3702, FOR DECEMBER: 350 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  4052 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES:  885 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 4052 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE LOST A GOOD SIZED 3167 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:885 contracts OR 88500  OZ OR 2.75 TONNES.

 

We are now in the active contract month of FEBRUARY and here the open interest stands at 663 contracts, and thus undergoing a loss of 26 contracts.  We had 55 contracts stand for delivery yesterday so we GAINED A CONSIDERABLE 29 contracts or 2900 additional oz will stand for delivery in this very active delivery month of February as they refused to  morph into London based forwards as well as negating a sizable fiat bonus. The comex is out of gold!@!

 

 

 

The next non active delivery month after February is  March and here we gained 0 contracts to stand at 1670.  After March, the next big delivery month is April and here the OI fell by 3673 contracts down to 338,643 contracts.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 73 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR 7300 OZ. (0.227 tonnes)

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 2150  CONTRACTS FROM 213,055 UP TO 215,205(AND CLOSER TO THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  (THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S OI COMEX GAIN  OCCURRED WITH A 13 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEBRUARY AND THE  AMOUNT OF OPEN INTEREST READY TO STAND IS  3 CONTRACTS, HAVING LOST 5 CONTRACTS FROM YESTERDAY.  WE HAD 7 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 2 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 10,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR DELIVERY IN THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEBRUARY.

 

.

 

 

 

THE NEXT NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH AFTER FEBRUARY IS THE VERY BIG AND ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH AND HERE THE OI FELL BY 3557 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 122,349 CONTRACTS. AFTER MARCH, APRIL FELL TO 58 CONTRACTS FOR A LOSS OF 1 CONTRACT.  AFTER APRIL, THE NEXT BIG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IS MAY AND HERE THE OI ADVANCED BY 4718 CONTRACTS UP TO 57,339 CONTRACTS.

 

 

 

 

ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED 2416 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A 2150 CONTRACT GAIN AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 266 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  2416 CONTRACTS...AND ALL OF THIS DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 13 CENT LOSS IN PRICING// YESTERDAY

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 0 notice(s) filed for nil OZ for the FEB, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY:  144,295 CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  162,104  contracts

comex gold volumes are getting extremely low as players just do not want to play in this casino.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INITIAL standings for  FEB/GOLD

FEB 11 /2019.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
132,482.596
oz
brinks
HSBC
Scotia
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz NIL oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

 

nil

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
73 notice(s)
 7300 OZ
No of oz to be served (notices)
590 contracts
(59000 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
9209 notices
920900 OZ
28.643 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entries:

 

 

total dealer deposits: NIL oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had 2 kilobar entries

 

we had 0 deposit into the customer account

 

total gold deposits: nil oz

we had 3 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

i) out of Brinks:  96.45 oz  3 kilobars

ii) Out of HSBC;  132,321.846  oz

iii) Out of Scotia: 64.300 oz  (2 kilobars)

 

 

total gold withdrawing from the customer;  132,482.596 oz

for the 2nd day in a row, a huge amount of gold leaves the customer account.

 

we had 0  adjustments…

FOR THE FEB 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 73 contract(s) of which 29 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 7 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the FEBRUARY/2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (9209) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB. (663 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (73 x 100 oz per contract) equals 979,900 OZ OR 30.479 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of FEBRUARY

 

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the FEB/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (9209 x 100 oz)  + {663)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (73 x 100 oz )which equals 979,900 oz standing OR 30.479 TONNES in this active delivery month of FEBRUARY.

WE GAINED 29 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 2900 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS THEY REFUSED TO  MORPH INTO A LONDON BASED FORWARD AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. THE COMEX MUST BE VOID OF GOLD./

 

 

 

 

 

THERE ARE ONLY 23.13 TONNES OF REGISTERED COMEX GOLD AVAILABLE FOR DELIVERY AGAINST 30.388 TONNES STANDING FOR FEBRUARY

OF WHICH 28.643 TONNES OF GOLD HAVE ALREADY BEEN SERVED UPON SO FAR THIS MONTH.

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  743,812.931 oz or   23.13 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,221,234.495 oz 255.71 tonnes

FOR COMPARISON FEBRUARY 2019 TO THE  FEBRUARY 2018 COMEX GOLD CONTRACT MONTH

 

 

 

ON FEB 1.2018: 20.07 TONNES OF GOLD STOOD FOR DELIVERY, BUT BY THE END OF MONTH ONLY 8.55 TONNES EVENTUALLY STOOD AS THE REST MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

IN THE LAST 28 MONTHS 99 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE NOV DELIVERY MONTH

FEB INITIAL standings/SILVER

FEB 11 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
1,224,023.177  oz
Delaware
HSBC
JPMorgan

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
605,505.887
oz
CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)
0
CONTRACT(S)
nil OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
3 contracts
15,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 535 contracts

(2,675,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

we had  1 deposits into the customer account

 

i) Into JPMorgan: nil  oz

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 150.26 million oz of  total silver inventory or 50.61% of all official comex silver. (150.26 million/296 million)

 

i) Into CNT:  605,505.887 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today: 605,505.887   oz

 

we had 3 withdrawals out of the customer account:

 

i) Out of Delaware:  7092.487  oz

ii) Out of HSBC:  20,036.810 oz

iii) Out of jPMorgan: 1,196,893.800 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals: 1,224,023.177    oz

 

we had 0 adjustment..

 

 

 

 

 

total dealer silver:  88.636 million

total dealer + customer silver:  296.732 million oz

 

 

 

 

The total number of notices filed today for the FEBRUARY 2019. contract month is represented by 0 contract(s) FOR  nil  oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in FEB., we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 535 x 5,000 oz = 2,675,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of FEB. (3) and the number of notices served upon today (0x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the FEBRUARY/2019 contract month: 535(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of FEB( 3) -number of notices served upon today (0)x 5000 oz equals 2,690,000 oz of silver standing for the FEBRUARY contract month.  This is a strong number of oz standing for an off delivery month.

WE GAINED 2 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 10,000 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AND ALSO NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. QUEUE JUMPING CONTINUES AT THE COMEX UNABATED.

 

FOR COMPARISON SILVER COMEX CONTRACT MONTH  FEB 2018 VS FEB 2019

 

 

 

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FEB 1/2018 CONTRACT MONTH WE HAD 670,000 OZ STAND FOR DELIVERY.  AT THE MONTH’S CONCLUSION WE HAD 2.035 MILLION OZ STAND AS WE WITNESSED QUEUE JUMPING ON A REGULAR BASIS AT THE SILVER COMEX.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

TODAY’S SILVER VOLUME:  77,158 CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 70,194 CONTRACTS… 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 70,194 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 350 million OZ  50.1% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV FALLS TO -3.63% (FEB 11/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV RISES TO -.64% to NAV (FEB 11 /2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -3.63%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 13.27/TRADING 12.82/DISCOUNT 3.41

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

FEB 12: WITH GOLD UP $2.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 802.12 TONNES

FEB 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.25 TODAY: ANOTHER PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD AND THIS GOLD WAS USED TO WHACK OUR PRECIOUS METAL TODAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 802.12 TONNES

FEB 8/WITH GOLD UP $4.00/THE CROOKS WITHDREW ANOTHER HUGE 6.59 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD AND THIS GOLD WAS USED TO CONTAIN THE PRICE OF GOLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 803.29 TONNES

FEB 7/WITH GOLD UP 35 CENTS/ANOTHER PAPER GOLD WITHDRAWAL OF 2.06 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 809.76 TONNES

FEB 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.85 TODAY: A STRONG PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.37 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 811.82 TONNES

FEB 5/WITH GOLD UP $.30 TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.11 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 813.29 TONNES

FEB 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65: TWO TRANSACTIONS: i)A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 8.37 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD WAS REMOVED FROM THE GLD AND THEN ii) a A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 2.00 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 817.40 TONNES

FEB 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 823.87 TONNES

JAN 31/WITH GOLD UP $9.80 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 823.87 TONNES

JAN 30/WITH GOLD UP $.65: A HUGE HUGE MONSTROUS ADDITION OF 8.23 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD ENTERED THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 823.87..SO FAR IN JANUARY: 28.56 TONNES HAVE BEEN ADDED

JAN 29/WITH GOLD UP $6.15/A HUGE ADDITION OF 5.88 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 815.64 TONNES

JAN 28/WITH GOLD UP $5.30 TODAY:NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 809.76 TONNES

JAN 25/WITH GOLD UP $17.90: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 809.76 TONNES

jAN 24/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.70?: NO CHANGES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 809.76 TONNES

JAN 23/WITH GOLD UP 50 CENTS: NO CHANGES AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 809.76 TONNES

JAN 22/WITH GOLD UP A TINY $.85 A MASSIVE PAPER DEPOSIT OF 12.06 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE FRAUDULENT GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 809.76 TONNES

JAN 18/WITH GOLD DOWN $9.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71

JAN 17/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.10: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71

JAN 16/WITH GOLD UP $5.40 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71

JAN 15/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71 TONNES

JAN 14/WITH GOLD UP $1.60/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71 TONNES

JAN 11/WITH GOLD UP $2.30 TODAY ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES OF GOLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 797.71 TONNES

JAN 10/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.00/NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.18 TONNES

JAN 9/WITH SILVER UP $6.00/ TWO TRANSACTIONS: a) A TINY WITHDRAWAL OF .25 TONNES TO PAY FOR FEES ETC b) A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.65 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY./INVENTORY RESTS AT 799.18 TONNES

JAN 8/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.70 TODAY, A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.47 TONNES AND THIS GOLD WAS USED IN THE RAID/INVENTORY RESTS AT 796.78 TONNES

JAN 7/WITH GOLD UP $4.45 TODAY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.94 TONNES OF GOLD ENTERED THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 798.25 TONNES

JAN 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.65 TODAY; NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 795.31 TONNES

JAN 3/2019/WITH GOLD UP $10.65 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY REMAINS AT 795.31 TONNES

JAN 2.2019/WITH GOLD UP $3.35 TODAY: A HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 7.64 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 795.31 TONNES

DEC 31/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 787.67 TONNES

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

FEB 12/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 802.12 tonnes

*IN LAST 545 TRADING DAYS: 132.93 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 445 TRADING DAYS: A NET 27.06 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY:  NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT TH SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.873 MILLION OZ/

FEB 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY:A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.126 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.873 MILLION OZ/

FEB 8/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 657,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.999  MILLION OZ/

FEB 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.656 MILLION OZ/

FEB 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY; A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 938,000  OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.656 MILLION OZ/

FEB 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.594 MILLION OZ.

FEB 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 129,000 OZ TO PAY FOR FEES/.INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.594 MILLION OZ/

FEB 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY  RESTS AT 310.723 MILLION OZ/

JAN 31/WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG DEPOSIT OF 1.126 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.723 MILLION OZ/

JAN 30/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 938,000 INTO THE SLV INVENTORY./INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.597 MILLION OZ.

JAN 29/WITH SILVER UP 9 CENTS TODAY/A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.408 MILLION OZ  IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.659 MILLION OZ/

JAN 28/WITH SILVER UP 5 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.251 MILLION OZ/

JAN 25/WITH SILVER UP 40 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.251 MILLION OZ/

JAN 24/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY

JAN 23/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS: A HUGE LOSS OF 938,000 FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.251 MILLION OZ/

JAN 22/WITH SILVER DOWN 5 CENTS: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.179 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/SLV IS A FRAUDULENT VEHICLE/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.189 MILLION OZ/

JAN 18/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY/NO DOUBT THE MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF PAPER SILVER WAS USED IN THE RAID TODAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.110

JAN 17/WITH SILVER DOWN 9 CENTS TODAY:ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.895 MILLION OZ./INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.110 MILLION OZ/

JAN 16/WITH SILVER FLAT TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV

A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.158 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 311.005 MILLION OZ/

JAN 15/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 469,000 OZ FROM ITS INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 313.163 MILLION OZ/

JAN 14/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 313.632 MILLION OZ/

JAN 11/WITH SILVER UP 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 313.632 MILLION OZ/

JAN 10/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 313.632 MILLION OZ/

JAN 9/WITH SILVER  UP 4 CENTS TODAY; A HUGE CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.126 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY LOWERS TO 313.632 MILLION OZ/???

JAN 8/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.758 MILLION OZ

JAN 7/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.347 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 314.758 MILLION OZ/

JAN 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.105 MILLION OZ

JAN 3/2019/WITH SILVER UP 22 CENTS A SMALL CHANGE TODAY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 118,000 OZ TO PAY FOR FEES:  INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.105 MILLION OZ/

JAN 2/2019/WITH SILVER UP 10 CENTS TODAY/NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.233 MILLION OZ/

DEC 31/WITH SILVER UP 6 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 317.233 MILLION OZ/

 

 

FEB 11/2019:

 

Inventory 307.873 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.22/ and libor 6 month duration 2.73

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .51

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.56%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.92

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.36

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Investors Move To Store Their Gold Bullion In Ireland

More Irish Investors Storing Their Gold In Ireland

via RTE News, Radio and TV

GoldCore has recently transported gold bullion coins and bars weighing nearly 2,000 troy ounces (over 60 kilos) and worth more than €2m into the country from the UK.

This is believed to be the largest legitimate movement of gold bullion into Ireland in decades.

The company said the movement of gold reflected a growing demand from UK and Irish investors to relocate tangible assets out of the UK and “closer to home”.

It added that it expects ongoing consignments of gold bullion to be transported and securely stored in its new vaults in the run up to the Brexit deadline on March 29.

As Brexit comes to a head, GoldCore said it is seeing a growing preference amongst Irish investors to store their gold domestically here rather than Perth, Zurich, Singapore, Hong Kong, Singapore and especially London.

“To date, the demand for gold storage in Dublin has been strong,” GoldCore’s Research Director Mark O’Byrne said.

“However, in the run up to Brexit, we expect this demand to strengthen even further and Dublin may surpass London in terms of the amount of gold assets in the vaults in the coming months,” he said.

“There is strong interest from retail investors, pension owners and high net worth clients, all of whom are expressing a preference for having their assets closer to home,” he added.

He said that while the amount of gold held in the company’s Dublin vaults is a fraction of GoldCore’s client holdings in other jurisdictions, it has already surpassed Hong Kong as a favoured jurisdiction for storing gold with clients.

Zurich remains the favourite location with client bullion holdings there worth nearly €40 million. Zurich is followed by Singapore, then London, Dublin and Hong Kong.

Via RTE NEWS

Listen to RTE Radio One Drivetime Interview

Watch TV segment on RTE TV News

Click Here to Access 7 Key Gold and Silver Storage Must-Haves

 

News and Commentary

More Irish investors storing their gold here (RTE.ie)

One of largest gold shipment moves to Dublin amid Brexit concerns (Breakingnews.ie)

UK’s 2018 economic growth weakest since 2012 due to Brexit (RTE.ie)

China joins global central bank gold rush as foreign exchange reserves stabilise (SCMP.com)

Italian Populists Target Huge Gold Reserves and Some Cry Foul (Bloomberg.com)

How Venezuela turns its useless bank notes into gold (Reuters.com)

British and U.S. Banks Are Deeply Divided on Brexit Ties (Bloomberg.com)

The vast majority of reported company earnings are not fully audited (MarketWatch.com)

“Insane” Deutsche Bank Drowning Under Soaring Funding Costs (Zerohedge.com)

Living Paycheck-To-Paycheck: The New Crisis And Normal For The American Middle Class (Zerohedge.com)

Position this guide please (GoldCore.com)

Listen on iTunes,Blubrry & SoundCloud  & watch on YouTube above

Gold Prices (LBMA PM)

11 Feb: USD 1,306.40, GBP 1014.81 & EUR 1,157.08 per ounce
08 Feb: USD 1,311.10, GBP 1012.04 & EUR 1,156.65 per ounce
07 Feb: USD 1,310.00, GBP 1009.49 & EUR 1,154.11 per ounce
06 Feb: USD 1,313.35, GBP 1013.51 & EUR 1,152.86 per ounce
05 Feb: USD 1,314.00, GBP 1009.15 & EUR 1,150.67 per ounce
04 Feb: USD 1,311.00, GBP 1004.36 & EUR 1,145.55 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

11 Feb: USD 15.70, GBP 12.16 & EUR 13.88 per ounce
08 Feb: USD 15.78, GBP 12.18 & EUR 13.92 per ounce
07 Feb: USD 15.71, GBP 12.20 & EUR 13.87 per ounce
06 Feb: USD 15.73, GBP 12.15 & EUR 13.82 per ounce
05 Feb: USD 15.86, GBP 12.19 & EUR 13.89 per ounce
04 Feb: USD 15.74, GBP 12.05 & EUR 13.75 per ounce

Recent Market Updates

– Large Gold Bullion Shipment Moves From London to Dublin Gold Vaults As Brexit Concerns Deepen
– Gold Surges In Aussie Dollars as Aussie Property Market Declines Sharply
– “Right” Trump and “Left” Ocasio-Cortez Will Join Forces And Debase The Dollar
– 7 Financial Truths In An Uncertain 2019
– Central Banks Buy More Gold In 2018 Than Any Year Since 1967
– Gold Breaks Out of Range After Dovish Fed – Further 1% Gain to $1,321/oz
– U.S.-China War May Be “Just A Shot Away”
– Buy Bitcoin or Gold? Bitcoin Buyers Investing In Gold In 2019
– Gold Consolidates Above $1,300 After 1.2% Gain Last Week
– Gold Bullion Will Protect From Politicians, Brexit and Increasing Market Volatility In 2019
– Brexit – The Pin That Bursts London Property Bubble
– Davos: David Attenborough Warns We Are Damaging The World ‘Beyond Repair’
– Gold May Return 25% In 2019 Given Brexit, Trump and Other Risks – IG TV Interview GoldCore

davidrussell
GATA STORIES AS IT RELATES TO PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER
The story was brought to you yesterday.  Italy’s Salvini states that the gold reserves belong to the people and not to government. Members of his party claim that in order to spend one cent they need 2/3 majority in a vote which is unlikely to happen.  What if as Chris Powell states that when they try and retrieve the gold they find only a moth eaten promissory note from the BIS or JPMorgan.
(courtesy Chris Powell/London’s Financial times)

What if Italy’s locusts try seizing the gold reserves to spend them …

 Section: 

… and find only a moth-eaten promissory note from the Bank for International Settlements or JPMorganChase & Co.?

* * *

Matteo Salvini Talks Up Seizing Control of Italy’s Gold Reserves

By Miles Johnson
Financial Times, London
Monday, February 11, 2019

ROME — Matteo Salvini has raised the possibility of wresting control of Italy’s sizeable gold reserves away from the country’s central bank in the latest in a series of threats to the independence of the Bank of Italy by Rome’s populist coalition.

“The gold is the property of the Italian people, not of anyone else,” Mr Salvini, deputy prime minister and leader of the League party, said in comments to reporters today.

The comments came after he called for the removal of the leadership of the Bank of Italy for failing to prevent the country’s banking crisis, prompting Giovanni Tria, economy minister, to defend the independence of the central bank.

Italian media reports have suggested that the coalition government, formed of Mr Salvini’s anti-migration League and the anti-establishment Five Star Movement, were considering using part of the central bank’s gold to fund their spending plans.

Mr. Salvini said he had not studied the notion of selling Bank of Italy reserves to fund additional government spending in detail, but that “it may be an interesting idea.”

Claudio Borghi, a Eurosceptic League member of parliament and close economic adviser of Mr Salvini, has proposed a law to ensure that the Italian state was recognised as the ultimate owner of Italy’s gold reserves rather than the Bank of Italy.

“Nobody wants to sell the ingots, in fact, quite the opposite, we want to prevent others from having their hands on it,” Mr. Borghi wrote on Twitter after Mr. Salvini’s comments.

Beppe Grillo, the comedian and co-founder of Five Star, last September suggested that Italy could sell off gold to fund higher state spending.

“It would allow us to finally put an end to this annoying story about the fact that ‘there is no money,'” Mr Grillo wrote then. “Why do citizens have to sell their necklaces and not the state?” …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.ft.com/content/f16d0aec-2e04-11e9-ba00-0251022932c8

end

Technical analysis for gold/silver by Craig Hemke
(Craig Hemke/Sprott)

 

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: The next goals for gold and silver prices

 Section: 

9:20p ET Monday, February 11, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Craig Hemke of the TF Metals Report, writing for Sprott Money tonight, applies technical analysis to the gold and silver charts and predicts that while the bullion banks will be selling heavily at key points, the monetary metals are firmly on an ascending path again and will be supported by computer programs calculating that the winning formula now is to buy the dips.

Hemke’s analysis is headlined “The Next Goals for Gold and Silver Prices” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/the-next-goals-for-gold-and-silver-pric…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

end

the Canadian Law firm Sotos agrees to have Deutsche bank settle on only 5.5 million dollars to settle gold/silver market rigging

(courtesy zerohedge)

Deutsche Bank to pay C$5.5 million to settle Canadian gold and silver market-rigging cases

 Section: 

2:18p ET Monday, February 11, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Deutsche Bank has agreed to pay nearly C$5.5 million to settle class-action lawsuits in Canada accusing the bank of manipulating the gold and silver markets, according to the Toronto law firm representing the plaintiffs.

In e-mails sent to class members and statements posted on its internet site, the law firm, Sotos LLC, said Deutsche Bank “does not admit any wrongdoing or liability.

Deutsche Bank already has agreed to pay nearly US$100 million to settle similar class-action lawsuits in the United States:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-deutsche-bank-settlement-gold-idUSKBN…

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-deutsche-bank-settlement-silver-idUSK…

The law firm said that if the settlement is approved by the Ontario Superior Court of Justice, the settlement funds, after payment of court-approved legal fees and disbursements, will be deposited into “an interest-bearing account for the benefit of the classes for distribution at a future date.”

The law firm’s summary of the gold and silver class-action settlement is posted at the Sotos internet site here:

https://sotosclassactions.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Gold-and-Silver…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

-END-

Despite the fact that the law firm does not communicate with us, the Canadian class action suit continues against 8 other banks

(courtesy GATA/Chris Powell)

Canadian class action against gold and silver market rigging continues against other banks

 Section: 

10:37p ET Monday, February 11, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

While the law firm superintending the Canadian class-action lawsuit against gold and silver market rigging doesn’t seem interested in communicating to the public about the case, GATA is reliably informed that the settlement agreement with Deutsche Bank reported today

http://www.gata.org/node/18857

— is not the end of the case.

The lawsuit continues against eight other banks, the London Gold Market Fixing organization, and the London Silver Market Fixing organization, as specified in today’s announcement from the law firm:

https://sotosclassactions.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Gold-and-Silver…

GATA is also reliably informed that as with Deutsche Bank’s settlement of the similar anti-trust lawsuit against it in the United States, the bank has agreed to provide evidence against the other defendants in the Canadian class action. Thus the Canadian lawsuit eventually may recover far more than the C$5.5 million Deutsche Bank has agreed to pay to settle the claims against it in Canada.

Of equal interest here is that as far as GATA can tell, the monetary metals mining industry and the World Gold Council have had nothing to say about these settlements, nor about the several admissions of gold and silver market rigging recently extracted from bullion bank traders by U.S. government agencies.

It seems that most of the monetary metals mining industry is interested only in touting share ownership and the World Gold Council is interested only in ensuring that there never is a world gold council.

That may leave GATA as the only advocate for monetary metals investors and adherents of free and transparent markets, limited and accountable government, and fair dealing among nations. Until the people and organizations with the resources to do this job as it could and should be done actually undertake it, GATA will be grateful for your financial support:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

Even a $5 contribution will be $5 more than GATA has received from Newmont Mining and Barrick Gold.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org





iii) Other Physical stories

From Normalization To NIRP – Reason #437 To Own Gold

Authored by Simon Black via SovereignMan.com,

And just like that, it seems we’re headed back to quantitative easing…

After cutting interest rates to nearly zero following the 2008 crisis, the Federal Reserve starting raising rates near the end of 2015 (from 0.25% to 2.5% today).

Following the most recent hike in December 2018, Chairman Powell seemed hell bent on further tightening, saying “some further gradual increases” were in the cards.

Then the stock market promptly fell nearly 20%.

Investors were in panic mode and calling for the end of the world.

The pain was too much…

Last month, the Fed left rates unchanged… and Powell removed any language about further hikes.

Already Powell is capitulating.

The new chief economist for the International Monetary Fund praised the move, saying she sees “considerable and rising risks” to the global economy.

And no surprise here, but Paul Krugman also supported the Fed’s policy. He’s also worried about a possible recession… but more worried the Fed won’t be able to cut rates low enough.

Central banks tried raising interest rates, but the market wouldn’t take it.

Now, the market is putting the likelihood of a rate hike this year at ZERO… and it’s expecting a rate cut next year.

Both the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan were supposed to start tightening policy and raising rates… now, they are both considering cutting interest rates even deeper into negative territory.

And after a 20% drop in US stocks, the Fed has taken its foot off the pedal. But the people still want more…

The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis thinks current interest rates are “too restrictive.” He too wants lower rates.

The San Francisco Fed agrees – they were singing the praises of negative interest rates in a recent research paper, saying they would have helped the economy recover even faster after 2008.

And SocGen economist Albert Edwards thinks the US will see negative interest rates and helicopter money (meaning central banks will print money and give it directly to the people) during the next recession.

When you’ve got Fed banks publicly praising negative interest rates, get ready… because it means they’re considering bringing negative rates to the US.

And that’s incredibly bullish for gold.

We’re not the only ones who think so…

The price of the yellow metal is trading at an eight-month high above $1,300 an ounce.

And central banks are buying hand over first. In fact, the folks that control the world’s money supply, are buying gold at the fastest pace since World War II.

Oh, and they’re lightening up on Treasurys at the same time (foreign purchases of Treasurys through October of last year were down by 50%).

The controllers of the printing press are trading their fiat for gold – and its 5,000 year history as the risk-free asset.

I guess people no longer want to lend money to a government that has no chance of ever paying it back.

But that’s just one reason (albeit a big one) that we’re bullish on gold today…

Another is that we’re not finding any new gold.

Gold and gold stocks have been out of favor for years, so mining companies slashed exploration budgets to 11-year lows to tighten their belts.

As a result, they’re finding less and less gold. So when demand really starts to heat up, the gold probably won’t be there…

Lots of the biggest players in the gold space have been warning about this set up.

This lack of new deposits is no doubt partly responsible for the mega gold mergers we’ve recently seen…

Just a month ago, Newmont Mining, one of the biggest players in the industry, acquired Goldcorp for $10 billion.

And in September of last year, Barrick Gold bought Rangold Resouces for $6 billion.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see a lot more deals in the sector (especially if the Fed does cut rates again, making money cheaper).

So we may see negative interest rates in the US, meaning you earn more holding gold (nothing) than you do losing money in cash.

And some of the biggest players in the gold sector are warning we’ve seen peak gold production.

Also, the biggest pools of money on the planet – central banks – are loading up on gold.

Dwindling supply met with tons of demand means higher prices.

Historically, gold has been a fantastic leading indicator of central bank policy…

The metal ran from under $1,200 an ounce to nearly $1,300 an ounce prior to the Fed’s reversal in January.

And if it runs higher from here, which we fully expect, it means all hell is about to break loose.

I’d recommend adding to your position while you still can.

You can buy physical gold, gold stocks, an ETF… or you can issue loans backed by gold with Silver Bullion.

But here’s one of my favorite ways to buy gold today (it’s almost never been this cheap).

end
No doubt about it;  China is signalling gold buying “to diversify its reserves” against the dollar.  When the world’s economies crack, it will be the yuan that survives due to gold backing

(courtesy zerohedge)

China Accelerates Renewed Gold-Buying Spree “To Diversify Its Reserves”

After China’s official gold reserves rose for the first time in around two years (since Oct 2016) in December, Beijing appears to have joined the global gold rush, increasing its gold reserves for the second month in a row in January to 59.94 million ounces.

As we previously notedChina has long been silent on its holdings of gold as many countries are turning away from the greenback.

The value the country’s holdings of the precious metal reached US$79.319 billion, increasing by more than $3 billion compared to the end of last year. 

China is also trying “to diversify its reserves” away from the greenback, according to Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at currency broker OANDA. The analyst told the South China Morning Post that the state of affairs in global politics, including a trade war with the US, are driving China’s interest to buy gold as a “safe haven hedge.” 

In January, China dropped to sixth place among the world’s largest holders of the yellow metal behind Russia. With its 67.6 million ounces of gold, Russia now stands in fifth place behind the US, Germany, France, and Italy.

Crucially, the size of the gold addition are far less important than the signaling effect – why did China decide now was the right time to publicly admit its gold reserves are rising?

After months of seeming stability in the yuan relative to gold, Q4 2018/Q1 2019 saw China seemingly allow gold to appreciate relative to the yuan

One wonders if Alasdair Macleod is on to something when he notes that if the yuan is to replace the dollar for China’s trade, officials will have to back it with gold

It is hard to see how the US can match a sound-money plan from China. Furthermore, the US Government’s finances are already in very poor shape and a return to sound money would require a reduction in government spending that all observers can agree is politically impossible.This is not a problem the Chinese government faces, and the purpose of a gold-linked jumbo bond is not so much to raise funds; rather it is to seal a price relationship between the yuan and gold.

Whether China implements the plan suggested herein or not, one thing is for sure: the next credit crisis will happen, and it will have a major impact on all nations operating with fiat money systems. The interest rate question, because of the mountains of debt owed by governments and consumers, will have to be addressed, with nearly all Western economies irretrievably ensnared in a debt trap. The hurdles faced in moving to a sound monetary policy appear to be simply too daunting to be addressed.

Ultimately, a return to sound money is a solution that will do less damage than fiat currencies losing their purchasing power at an accelerating pace. Think Venezuela, and how sound money would solve her problems. But that path is blocked by a sink-hole that threatens to swallow up whole governments. Trying to buy time by throwing yet more money at an economy suffering a credit crisis will only destroy the currency. The tactic worked during the Lehman crisis, but it was a close-run thing. It is unlikely to work again.

Because China’s economy has had its debt expansion of the last ten years mostly aimed at production, if she fails to act soon she faces an old-fashioned slump with industries going bust and unemployment rocketing. China offers very limited welfare, and without Maoist-style suppression, faces the prospect of not only the state’s plans going awry, but discontent and rebellion developing among the masses.

For China, a gold-exchange yuan standard is now the only way out. She will also need to firmly deny what Western universities have been teaching her brightest students. But if she acts early and decisively, China will be the one left standing when the dust settles, and the rest of us in our fiat-financed welfare states will left chewing the dirt of our unsound currencies.

Is China’s “signal” an explicit warning of the end to the dollar era that has existed since August 1971, when gold as the ultimate money was driven out of the monetary system.

Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

LIVE, NEWS-MAKING DISCUSSIONS
UNIQUE, IN-PERSON EXPERIENCES

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

 

Your early MONDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED/ LAST AT: 6.7704/

 

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.7788   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 18.00 POINTS OR 0.68% /

 

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 27.49 POINTS OR .10%

 

 

2. Nikkei closed  UP 531.94 POINTS OR 2.61%

 

 

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED GREEN 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/USA dollar index FALLS TO 96.96/Euro FALLS TO 1.1306

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: RISES TO. –.01/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 110.42/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 53.42 and Brent: 62.91

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE  UP   /OFF- SHORE:UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.14%/Italian 10 yr bond yield DOWN to 2.86% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 1.24%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.72: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 3.95

3k Gold at $1312.80 silver at:15.77   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 26/100 in roubles/dollar) 65.54

3m oil into the 53 dollar handle for WTI and 62 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 110.42 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 1.0077 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1382 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to +0.14%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.66% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.02%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.2371

 

Markets Jump, Wall Of Worry Crumbles As Tentative Wall Deal Reached

It’s a sea of green in equity markets from Asia to Europe, with U.S. futures sharply higher following late Monday news of a tentative deal among American lawmakers to avert another government shutdown, while optimism about US-China trade talks rose after administration officials hinted at a meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi “soon”.

In the key overnight news, US Senator Shelby said an agreement in principle was reached on shutdown talks and that staff will work on the deal. Senator Shelby also commented that he hopes the White House will back the deal and that the border bill will have some money for a barrier, while US Rep. Lowey said staff could work out the full details of border security deal by Wednesday. US congressional aides said the tentative US border security deal provides $1.375bln to build 55 miles of border fence but does not contain any funds for a border wall and does not include Democrats’ demand for capping number of immigrant detention beds

Meanwhile, President Trump said “we are going to make great deals on trade” and don’t want China to have a hard time. President Trump also commented that we probably have some good news regarding border deal but added he didn’t know what they meant regarding progress and affirmed the US would build the wall anyway.

All this was taken quite well by traders, and Tokyo’s Nikkei set the tone with its best day of the year so far, surging 2.6% as the yen tumbled to 2018 lows, while Europe wasted little time in trying to lift the STOXX 600 back to the two-month high it set last week, led by carmakers. Germany’s DAX jumped more than 1.2% after rising 1% on Monday, and Paris and Milan were up 0.8%, while London’s FTSE approached a four-month peak despite ongoing Brexit uncertainty.

Earlier in Asia, MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged up 0.3%. Shanghai rose 0.7% South Korea’s KOSPI climbed 0.5 percent and Australian shares gained 0.3 percent. The Nikkei rallied though, shooting up 2.6% after closing on Friday at its lowest level since early January after a market holiday on Monday. With the yen sliding again, shares of exporters such as automakers and machinery makers led the charge. Separately, Deutsche Bank noted it was 20 years since Japan cut interest rates to zero, something now standard in large parts of Europe.

Japan’s 10-year bond yields remained in negative territory even after the central bank cut purchases of some longer-dated bonds for the first time since July in a regular operation. The BOJ has sought to taper its purchases while focusing on yield targets rather than quantitative easing. Nissan reported worse-than-expected results.

The dollar hovered at a two-month high and was fractionally higher on the day, its 9th consecutive daily increase, and the Australian dollar also gained (more below). The yen and Swiss franc dipped while U.S. Treasury and German bund yields edged up as investors jettisoned safe havens after U.S. lawmakers said they reached an “agreement in principle” on border security funding that would avert a second government shutdown. The Trump administration said the president still wants to meet China’s Xi Jinping in an effort to end the trade war.

We have had two bits of relatively good news overnight – optimism about the U.S. shutdown not resuming and optimism about a trade deal,” said Societe Generale strategist Kit Juckes. “Equities are higher, bond yields are a little bit higher, yen and Swiss franc weakest overnight of the major currencies so it’s sort of risk-on rules OK!

According to Juckes there was now a 75% chance that a hike of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods at the start of March will be avoided and a 95% chance that another U.S. government shutdown will be dodged. Those odds were boosted late on Monday when as we reported U.S. lawmakers reached a tentative deal on border security funding, though aides cautioned that it did not contain the $5.7 billion President Donald Trump wants to build a wall on the Mexican border, and the president has yet to opine on whether the deal is agreeable.

“The trade talks are key,” Putnam’s Jason Vaillancourt told Bloomberg TV. “If we can get a little bit of those growth engines starting to level out around the world, whether it be Japan or Europe, and just bottom out, then I think that will go a long ways to putting a base under risky assets.”

The developments were good enough for S&P 500 e-mini futures to rise 0.7%, however, pointing to a solid start on Wall Street later after a choppy day on Monday.

Meanwhile, U.S. and Chinese officials expressed hopes the new round of talks, which began in Beijing on Monday, would bring them closer to easing their months-long trade war which would see the tariffs on $200 BN worth of Chinese goods rise from 10% to 25%. “There will be no winner in a trade war. So at some point they will likely strike a deal,” said Mutsumi Kagawa, chief global strategist at Rakuten Securities in Tokyo.

In fx, the dollar was mixed but held on to recent gains, having risen for eight straight sessions against a basket of six major currencies until Monday, its longest rally in two years. Although the Fed’s dovish turn dented the dollar earlier this month, analysts – who were generally expecting a slump in the dollar only to be wrongfooted once again – noted the U.S. currency still has the highest yield among major peers and that the Fed continues to shrink its balance sheet.

“The dollar is the market’s pet currency at present regardless of whether concerns about the global economy are on the rise,” currency strategists at Commerzbank said in a note.

Elsewhere, the Swiss franc was the worst performer; the yen fell to the lowest this year and Treasuries declined across the curve in the wake of the tentative deal on border security funding; the news that President Trump still wants to meet China’s Xi Jinping to help end the trade war also added to the moves. The euro dropped as much as 0.2% to 1.1258, a three-month low, before erasing losses; offers extend to 1.1350 and are part of fresh short interest, according to traders. The Swedish krona led Group- of-10 gains while the Norwegian krone and the Canadian dollar got some tailwind from rising oil prices.

Elsewhere, Brent crude rose after its lowest close in more than a week. Emerging markets shares climbed and their currencies edged higher. The pound held steady as U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May prepared to update lawmakers on the progress  — or lack thereof — of Brexit talks with the EU. The offshore yuan strengthened for the first time in five days.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.7% to 2,727.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.6% to 363.16
  • MXAP up 0.9% to 156.07
  • MXAPJ up 0.3% to 513.09
  • Nikkei up 2.6% to 20,864.21
  • Topix up 2.2% to 1,572.60
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.1% to 28,171.33
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.7% to 2,671.89
  • Sensex down 0.7% to 36,144.54
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 6,079.08
  • Kospi up 0.5% to 2,190.47
  • German 10Y yield rose 0.8 bps to 0.128%
  • Euro down 0.04% to $1.1272
  • Italian 10Y yield fell 5.7 bps to 2.539%
  • Spanish 10Y yield fell 1.0 bps to 1.232%
  • Brent futures up 0.8% to $62.01/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.4% to $1,312.82
  • U.S. Dollar Index little changed at 97.08

Top overnight news

  • The Trump administration said the U.S. president still wants to meet China’s Xi Jinping in an effort to end the trade war, a sign of optimism as negotiators from the world’s two-biggest economies start their latest round of talks this week
  • Congressional negotiators reached a tentative deal on border security that would give President Donald Trump far less money than he’d demanded for new barriers and would avert another government shutdown
  • Mark Carney may give some color Tuesday on what lies ahead after enduring the worst year of growth since he arrived at the Bank of England
  • U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May will address lawmakers in the House of Commons on Tuesday as she seeks more time to renegotiate her Brexit deal with the European Union
  • The Bank of Japan offered to buy 180 billion yen ($1.6 billion) of securities maturing in 10-to-25 years, versus 200 billion yen at its previous operation. The last reduction in this zone was in July
  • After raising interest rates late last year, Sweden’s central bank now has little choice other than to wait for a better economic outlook before pushing ahead with its long-awaited tightening cycle.
  • European Union member states are considering a possible joint response to cyber attacks allegedly conducted by a Chinese state-linked hacker group after the U.K. presented evidence last month about network infiltration, according to people familiar with the matter
  • ECB officials shouldn’t overreact to individual points of incoming data when setting monetary policy as the current environment is highly uncertain, Executive Board candidate Philip Lane said
  • Qatar is weighing plans to tap international bond markets as the gas-rich nation seeks to cement its status as a regular issuer, according to three people with knowledge of the matter

Asian equity markets traded mostly higher amid growing optimism regarding US-China trade talks and hopes of averting a government shutdown, as negotiators were said to have reached an agreement in principle in which the border bill will include some funds for a barrier. ASX 200 (+0.3%) and Nikkei 225 (+2.6%) were positive with outperformance in the Japanese benchmark on return from the extended weekend as exporters were underpinned by favourable currency moves, although Toshiba was the notable laggard after it confirmed reports it could reduce FY profit guidance by half. Elsewhere, Shanghai Comp. (+0.7%) and Hang Seng (Unch.) were kept afloat but with upside limited by indecision as participants await the outcome of trade discussions and after the PBoC refrained from open market operations which resulted to a daily net drain of CNY 100bln. Finally, 10yr JGBs were lower amid outperformance of Tokyo stock markets and following a reduction of the BoJ’s Rinban amounts in which it lowered its purchases of 10yr-25yr JGBs by JPY 20bln. PBoC skipped open market operations for a net daily drain of CNY 100bln.

Top Asian News

  • BOJ Cuts Purchases of 10-to-25 Year Bonds First Time Since July
  • Abe Says Japan Wants Apology for South Korean Remarks on Emperor
  • Court Freezes China Minsheng Stake in Valuable Shanghai Land
  • Xiaomi, Meituan Among Dual-Class Stocks to Join MSCI Indexes

All major European indices are in the green [Euro Stoxx 50 +1.0%], continuing from the optimism seen in Asia overnight on US-China trade and the potential for averting a US government shutdown. Sectors are also all in the green, with some slight outperformance in material names. The Dax (+1.2%) is marginally outperforming its peers, in spite of being weighed upon by index heavyweight Thyssenkrupp (-1.9%) who are down following earnings where the Co. confirmed their outlook, but stated that economic and political uncertainties are increasing. Other notable movers include, Michelin (+11.6%) who are at the top of the Stoxx 600 following their earnings, with Continental (+4.1%) higher in sympathy. Towards the bottom of the Stoxx 600 are Tui (-3.1%) following their earnings. Separately, Kering (+2.4%) were in the red following their earnings, in spite of Gucci’s operating margin reaching a record 39.5% by end of 2018; although Co. shares have now drifted higher into positive territory.

Top European News

  • Thyssenkrupp Profit Plunge Adds to German Industrial Blues
  • Michelin Jumps as Outgoing CEO Strikes Optimistic Tone on Profit

In FX, the dollar remains bid in wake of reports that a deal has been struck in principle to avoid another US Government shutdown ahead of Friday’s funding deadline, while the US trade envoy has arrived in Beijing amidst heightened prospects of forging an agreement in time for the next tranche of import tariffs due on March 1st. The index just off a marginal new multi-week peak of 97.209, with the Dollar extending gains vs most G10 rivals.

  • CHF/JPY – Another broad upturn in risk appetite has hit the safe havens hardest, understandably, with the Franc slipping closer towards yesterday’s overnight flash crash lows at 1.0091 vs 1.0095, and Usd/Jpy climbing to fresh 2019 highs circa 110.65 having breached 110.50 and the peak from 31st December last year just a pip or so below. Rebounding US Treasury yields are also impacting, and with no Japanese exporter supply anticipated before 111.00 where barrier defence offers are also expected, technical impulses could be more influential in the short term given a key Fib level and the 55 DMA in close proximity (110.54 and 110.59 respectively).
  • NZD/GBP/EUR – Also conceding further ground to the Usd, with the Kiwi retesting support around the 100 DMA (0.6725) ahead of Wednesday’s RBNZ policy meeting that is widely forecast to culminate in a dovish hold (see our headline feed and/or research suite for a full preview of the event. Meanwhile, the Pound remains blighted by Brexit risk and related economic repercussions, as Cable teeters just above 1.2800 and a slightly deeper post-UK data low around 1.2834, with bids seen at 1.2820 and the 55 DMA at 1.2810. The single currency is consolidating off a fresh ytd base of 1.1258, but looking more prone to heavier losses while under 1.1300 and given little in the way of chart support ahead of the 2018 low (1.1216) apart from 1.1234.
  • AUD/CAD – Defying the overall trend and both firmer vs their US counterpart, the Aud has rebounded firmly above 0.7050 and 1.0500 vs the Nzd with the aid of a more encouraging NAB business survey vs much weaker than forecast housing loans data. Meanwhile, the Loonie has drawn support from a rebound in crude prices and pared losses from 1.3300+ to circa 1.3270.
  • EM – Some respite for regional currencies against the backdrop of improved risk sentiment, and with the Rand also relieved to hear that Eskom is hoping to end power cuts by the end of the week – Usd/Zar back down below 13.8000.

In commodities, Brent (+1.7%) and WTI (+1.5%) prices are comfortably in the green and above USD 62/bbl and USD 53/bbl respectively after Saudi Arabia posited that crude production in March is set to be 500k below their OPEC+ cut target at 9.8mln BPD. Support has also been offered by the optimistic risk tone after positive comments pertaining to US-China trade and a deal to prevent the US Government from shutting down again; as USTR Lighthizer arrived in Beijing this morning. OPEC are to publish their monthly oil market report today, where 2019 world oil demand was forecast to grow at 1.29mln BPD. In addition, the EIA are to release their Short-Term Energy Outlook; which previously forecast US oil output to average 12.1mln BBL and 12.9mln BBL in 2019 and 2020 respectively. Gold (+0.4%) has strengthened somewhat this morning, breaking from the subdued price action seen overnight as the dollar remained firm; the yellow metal is now trading towards the top of its USD 10/oz range. Elsewhere, reports indicate that Vale knew the Brazil dam which collapsed last month was more than twice as likely to fail than the maximum allowed risk level from internal guidelines.

Looking at the day ahead, there are no releases of note in Europe this morning while the only data due in the US is the January NFIB small business optimism reading and December JOLTS survey. Revisions to the PPI data will also likely warrant attention. Away from all that it is a busier day for central bank speak with the ECB’s Lane, Weidmann and Nowotny all speaking at separate events this morning. The BoE’s Carney is then speaking shortly after lunchtime in London at an event on the global economy and risks to the outlook. Later this evening the Fed’s Powell is due to speak at 5.45pm GMT albeit about economic development and rural poverty, so an unlikely venue for monetary policy guidance. The Fed’s Mester does however speak on the topic of the economic outlook and monetary policy at 11.30pm GMT while the ECB’s Lautenschlaeger speaks at the same time, albeit at a different event. Away from that Euro Area finance ministers are due to gather in Brussels and the monthly OPEC report is due.

US Event Calendar

  • 6am: NFIB Small Business Optimism, actual 101.2, est. 103, prior 104.4
  • 10am: JOLTS Job Openings, est. 6,846, prior 6,888
  • Revisions: Producer Price Index

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It might go under the radar but today is a bit of a landmark anniversary of sorts for financial markets. It’s the 20-year anniversary of the Bank of Japan cutting rates to 0% and the start of two decades of extreme monetary policy which the country has never been able to sustainably lift out from. A sobering template for Europe to worry about. Japan also kick started what became a more mainstream form of monetary policy post the GFC around the world. For economic historians Japan is really a fascinating case. If you took a snapshot of the nation’s finances and demographics today with no previous knowledge of the country’s journey over the last 30 years since its asset bubble burst, you would wonder how the country isn’t in a constant crisis. Debt to GDP is the highest in the developed world at 236%. The BoJ holds around 43% of all JGBs. Core prices in Japan are also virtually identical to where they were 20 years ago and 10yr JGBs have fallen from 2.21% to -0.03% over this period. Nevertheless, Japan is an example of how long a crisis can be averted for under extreme measures. It also highlights how perceptions can be turned on their heads. Yesterday we found this quote from The Economist 20-years ago: “Without fiscal discipline, say Bank of Japan officials, the government risks losing control of public spending, inviting hyperinflation in the world’s second-biggest economy.” So, an unhappy anniversary today in many respects but it’s also noticeable that after 20 years of high fiscal spending the Japanese don’t have populism. Maybe that’s a message for Europe.

To the present where the last 24 hours hasn’t been anywhere near as exciting as the BoJ that historic day 20 years ago. Case in point, the intraday range on the S&P 500 yesterday for example was just 0.53%, the third smallest of the year, and trading volumes were 20% below their 100-day average. The good news is that there are a number of potential catalysts to make things more interesting bubbling away in the background, however just not quite in danger of spilling over right now. That of course includes the US-China trade meetings this week, another Brexit session in Parliament, and some potentially significant data which really kick starts from tomorrow with US CPI.

Anyway back to markets where the S&P 500 closed a fairly uninspiring +0.07% yesterday. The NASDAQ (+0.13%) was a touch stronger if you’re looking for a shining light while the DOW (-0.21%) lagged behind. It wasn’t a lot more interesting in Europe prior to this where the STOXX 600 may have closed +0.85% but the reality was that it was just catching up to the late Friday rally on Wall Street last week. High yield credit wasn’t all that different where spreads in the US finished -2bps tighter while in bond land, Bund yields backed up +3.3bps to close at 0.117% – and therefore partially undoing some of last week’s rally which saw Bunds fall to as low as 0.076% at one stage and the lowest since October 2016. Treasuries (+1.9bps) were similarly weak (and are up another +2.7bps overnight – more on that below) while the curve – which has remained firmly rooted in a 14-20bps range all year – was flat at 16.6bps.

Meanwhile, in oil markets both WTI (-0.59%) and Brent (-0.95%) sold-off after Reuters reported that a draft document for a OPEC and non-OPEC cooperation charter avoided any mention of prices, market share and production cuts.The document also suggested that OPEC and Russia will discuss creating a mechanism (i.e. no formal body) rather than an organization when they meet in April. Not helping oil was the stronger Greenback with the Dollar index rallying another +0.43%. That means the Dollar has now strengthened for 8 consecutive sessions which is the longest run since February 2017.

In terms of actual news flow yesterday, the latest on the standoff in Washington is that a tentative deal has been reached by congressional negotiators, albeit for far less funding than Trump had sought and without confirmation from Trump yet that he will support it. Bloomberg reported that the lawmakers have agreed on all seven bills with the plan including $1.375bn for new border fencing. That compares to $5.7bn that Trump had wanted. Trump later commented at a political rally that “just so you know, we’re building the wall anyway”.

Nevertheless, the tentative agreement has lifted markets overnight with the Hang Seng (+0.16%), Shanghai Comp (+0.72%) and Kospi (+0.55%) all higher while the Nikkei (+2.64%) has really taken off after markets re-opened and post a couple of weak days for the Yen. The CNY (+0.07%) is stable following the big slide yesterday while S&P 500 futures are up +0.51%. In other news, the BoJ trimmed its purchases of JGBs in the 10-25y bucket to JPY180 bn (vs. JPY200 bn previously) at today’s regular operation. They did a similar thing in July and the move comes after yields on super-long bonds fell to lowest since late 2016 on Friday.

Meanwhile there’s really nothing material to report from the US-China trade talks so far with meetings continuing overnight in Beijing. At the margin the tone remains positive though with White House adviser Kellyanne Conway saying yesterday that “President Trump wants to meet with President Xi very soon” and that “this President wants a deal”. On a related note, it was interesting to read that the Commerce Department is likely to release a final report over the coming days (on the investigation under Section 232) which declares that imported vehicles and auto parts are a threat to national security. Tariffs are said to be an option for the President to consider under the investigation, and there will be a 90 day window for him to decide whether and how to implement them. One to watch.

In Europe, Germany’s SPD party approved pension and labour law reform proposals, which would boost social spending. The proposals included an extension to unemployment benefits, a higher minimum wage, and enhanced pensions. The plan will not be implemented in the current coalition, but it could function as part of an electoral platform if the SPD decides to abandon the government and push for new elections after its planned review later this year. Over at the ECB, Ireland’s Philip Lane was officially nominated to be the ECB’s next Chief Economist which was as expected.

In other news, there was some brief volatility in Spanish assets yesterday however it turned out to be more noise than substance. The IBEX sold-off as much as 0.80% from the highs and 10y Spanish Bonds were nearly 4bps off the lows at one stage after Efe news agency reported that PM Sanchez was considering calling snap elections for April 14th. The story was later rebuffed and Spanish assets quickly reversed the moves however this does come in a week when the government needs to get its budget passed when it goes to a vote in parliament tomorrow and the trial of the Catalan separatists who led the 2017 push for independence begins today. Spanish bond yields closed +0.7bps higher yesterday and the IBEX +0.90%.

Elsewhere, there wasn’t much in the way of new Brexit news yesterday – aside from comments from Barnier which didn’t offer anything that we didn’t already know – however we did get confirmation that PM May will present a “neutral” motion to parliament today, having previously been scheduled for tomorrow.It’s expected that May will be asking for more time over negotiations with the EU. The suggestion is that she will offer parliament the right to vote on other Brexit options by the end of February but will not commit to bringing her deal back before then. Labour in return is expected to push for an amendment that requires any final vote on the deal by February. The vote on May’s motion and any amendments will likely be on Thursday.

Staying with the UK, yesterday’s preliminary Q4 GDP print was even more disappointing than feared, coming in at just +0.2% qoq (vs. +0.3% expected). That means the annual rate has now fallen two-tenths to +1.3% yoy and so matching the six-year lows of Q1 last year. The December monthly reading actually dropped -0.4% mom compared to expectations for no change. It’s worth noting that the breakdown of the Q4 reading revealed that business investment contracted again, and therefore meaning it has contracted for a fourth consecutive quarter – the longest since the financial crisis. Sterling closed -0.69% yesterday, albeit wasn’t the worst performing G10 currency which went to the Norwegian Krone (-0.91%), as it sold off in tandem with oil.

There wasn’t any data out in the US yesterday however we did receive the CPI revisions. Importantly though there was no change to core CPI on a year-on-year basis at 2.21%.Our US economists did however make the point that the January 2018 reading was downgraded from 0.35% mom to 0.30%. Importantly this makes for easier base effects and a lower hurdle for keeping the annual rate near recent levels. A reminder that we get the January CPI report in the US tomorrow.

Finally to the day ahead,which is incredibly sparse for data. Indeed there are no releases of note in Europe this morning while the only data due in the US is the January NFIB small business optimism reading and December JOLTS survey. Revisions to the PPI data will also likely warrant attention. Away from all that it is a busier day for central bank speak with the ECB’s Lane, Weidmann and Nowotny all speaking at separate events this morning. The BoE’s Carney is then speaking shortly after lunchtime in London at an event on the global economy and risks to the outlook. Later this evening the Fed’s Powell is due to speak at 5.45pm GMT albeit about economic development and rural poverty, so an unlikely venue for monetary policy guidance. The Fed’s Mester does however speak on the topic of the economic outlook and monetary policy at 11.30pm GMT while the ECB’s Lautenschlaeger speaks at the same time, albeit at a different event. Away from that Euro Area finance ministers are due to gather in Brussels and the monthly OPEC report is due.

 

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 18.00 POINTS OR 0.68% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 27.49 POINTS OR .10%  /The Nikkei closed UP 531.94 POINTS OR 2.61%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED UP 0.33%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP  at 6.7704 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil UP to 53.42 dollars per barrel for WTI and 62.91 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED GREEN //.

 ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP // LAST AT 6.7704 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED UP ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7788: / TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED   : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

 

 

 

i)North Korea//USA

 

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

Quite clear:  The Bank of Japan is running out of assets to purchase as they taper their JGB by another 20 billion yen.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Yen Strengthens After BoJ Tapers JGB Purchases To 5-Year Lows

For the first time since July, The Bank of Japan tapered its 10-to-25-year JGB purchases by 20 billion yen at Tuesday’s regular operation.

BoJ purchased 180 billion yen of 10-25 year bonds vs 200b yen on Feb. 4. The last taper was in July 2018 and this reduction drops the purchase amount to its equal lowest since 2014 (when Abenomics was unleashed on the world)…

 

The kneejerk reaction was yen buying (after being dumped against the dollar all day long)…

The message is loud and clear – The Bank of Japan is running out of ‘assets’ to monetize

end

Today is the 20 yr anniversary of the Bank of Japan cutting rates to zero.  Prices are basically the same as 20 years ago.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Today Is The 20 Year Anniversary Of The Bank Of Japan Cutting Rates To 0%

In the annals of modern central (bank) planning, today is a tragic day, or as DB’s Jim Reid puts it, “it is a bit of a landmark anniversary of sorts for financial markets” – it’s the 20-year anniversary of the Bank of Japan cutting rates to 0% and the start of two decades of extreme monetary policy which neither Japan, nor any other country, has ever been able to escape from.

As Reid notes, this is a “sobering template for Europe to worry about” and adds that Japan also kick started what became a more mainstream form of monetary policy post the GFC around the world.

For economic historians Japan is really a fascinating case. If you took a snapshot of the nation’s finances and demographics today with no previous knowledge of the country’s journey over the last 30 years since its asset bubble burst, you would wonder how the country isn’t in a constant crisis. Debt to GDP is the highest in the developed world at 236%. The BoJ holds around 43% of all JGBs.

Core prices in Japan are also virtually identical to where they were 20 years ago and 10yr JGBs have fallen from 2.21% to -0.03% over this period. Nevertheless,

Japan is an example of how long a crisis can be averted for under extreme measures. It also highlights how perceptions can be turned on their heads.

Yesterday we found this quote from The Economist 20-years ago: “Without fiscal discipline, say Bank of Japan officials, the government risks losing control of public spending, inviting hyperinflation in the world’s second-biggest economy.”

Reid’s conclusion: “an unhappy anniversary today in many respects but it’s also noticeable that after 20 years of high fiscal spending the Japanese don’t have populism. Maybe that’s a message for Europe.

end

3 C CHINA

The China/USA trade deal deadline will likely be extended

(courtesy zerohedge)

China Trade-Deal Deadline Will Likely Be Extended, Trump Aides Say

More than two months after President Trump and President Xi agreed to the trade truce over a steak dinner in Buenos Aires, a second meeting between the two leaders – one that Trump insists would be essential to striking a final trade deal – remains in doubt. But according to several Trump advisors quoted by Bloomberg, China is still pushing for a meeting (though, given that the Trump administration needs to keep the deal talk alive to buoy stocks in the face of growing calls for an earnings recession, these assurances should be taken with a grain of salt).

Trump

During a Monday appearance on Fox News, Kellyanne Conway insisted that Trump wants to meet with Xi very soon” and that this president wants a deal.

“He has forged a mutually respectful relationship with President Xi,” Conway said. “They will meet again soon.”

And it would appear the Chinese, already struggling with sagging domestic markets and a softening economy, want the same thing. With negotiators meeting again this week in Beijing, it’s unclear exactly how much progress has been made. According to Bloomberg, the two sides have only just started the work of drafting a common document and are still negotiating over how a deal may be enforced – which has long been touted as a crucial factor for US officials. The US is also pressuring China to commit to more substantive reforms to its state-driven economic system, which Trump has argued disadvantages American companies trying to compete in China’s domestic market.

Because so much uncertainty remains, Trump’s aides have privately acknowledged that the most likely outcome, at this point, is that the March 1 deadline will be extended (an outcome that Wall Street strategists have identified as the best possible scenario for markets, given that a comprehensive deal remains extremely unlikely). It’s still possible that Trump and Xi might meet at Mar-a-Lago next month, Conway said.

The bigger question, at this point, is whether the Chinese will agree to a new hard deadline, because US officials are “keen for any extension not to be open-ended.”

Chinese would favor such an extension, and some are optimistic about it. “I think there will be positive outcomes from this round of trade talks, because the two sides have shown willingness to seek a deal,” said Wei Jianguo, a former vice commerce minister and now vice director of China Center for International Economic Exchanges in Beijing. Even if no deal is reached in this round of talks, I don’t think tariffs will be hiked on March 1. The highest possibility is that the U.S. will agree to postpone the deadline, buying time for the two leaders to meet and sign off on the final deal.”

As Kyle Bass argued in an op-ed published yesterday, the Trump administration has more leverage to force China to change than any other recent US administration.

But, for China to be a constructive member of the multilateral world trading system, it must agree to several key reforms: It must agree to allow foreign companies, operating either inside China or outside, the same rights and privileges as state-controlled or state-backed firms. China’s current mercantilist system, based on subsidies and preferences, must be dismantled, and the country must keep its commitments.

China has a reputation for making promises and not following through, as it has repeatedly promised to end its campaign of cyber-espionage and theft of trade secrets. Whether this time will be different remains unclear.

 end

 

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

 

UK

A Jaguar bankruptcy is only a matter of time and the key development is its poor showing in China

(courtesy zerohedge)

Market Convinced Jaguar Bankruptcy Only Matter Of Time

With so much attention these days on whether Tesla will be profitable, and whether or not its business model is viable for the foreseeable future, another iconic automaker is approaching dire financial straits: Jaguar Land Rover.

As the following chart shows, over the past year, CDS on Jaguar Land Rover Automotive PLC has soared from just 150bps to 900 bps.

As a result, the probability of default for the carmaker over the next 5 years has soared to 54%, with its default odds over the next 3 years as high as a third.

As a result, as Bloomberg Intelligence observes, the company’s chances of obtaining further unsecured loans in the near-term are modest – especially as the market demands increasingly higher rates – despite that being the company’s stated preference. Meanwhile, “an equity offering by parent Tata Motors could be highly dilutive, making a secured financing, such as its receivables financing vehicle, a necessary evil for Jaguar as it burns through cash at least through 2020.”

Such an action could lead to credit rating cuts due to structural subordination of bondholders, yet that would likely be more palatable than quarterly headlines of weakening liquidity

The good news is that Jaguar anticipates generating free cash flow in its fiscal 4Q as inventory is lowered, but as Bloomberg’s auto team suggests, the company may seek an $750 million-$1.5 billion of additional capital to help bridge its liquidity needs. The reason for that is a steep debt maturity profile as the company considers a $500 million debt maturity in November 2019, while cash usage could exceed $2 billion in fiscal 2020, which will jeopardize Jaguar’s traditional plan of having liquidity of 12-15% of sales. That could be $4-$5 billion for fiscal 2020, especially when considering the company upcoming debt maturity schedule, which sees over $2 billion in revolver liquidity in question after 2020 unless the company can successfully roll it over at similar terms.

What is the reason for Jaguar’s distressed liquidity profile? As Bloomberg notes, the company’s working-capital profile has sharply deteriorated over the past few quarters, as bloated inventory levels pressure liquidity and potentially require even more severe discounting in periods ahead. Meanwhile, its high level of payables to receivables also leverages the potential risks of an industry slowdown on its liquidity outlook.

Making matters worse, is the deterioration in Jaguar’s core China market, where EBIT margin was -10.6% in fiscal 3Q (vs. 7.8% last year) as retail sales dropped 40%, pricing pressures intensified and reduced production occurred.

Does this mean that absent a sharp rebound in the Chinese market, iconic brands such as Jaguar, Land Rover and Aston Martin will soon disappear? Hardly: after all the company will continue operating in bankruptcy, even if its parent, Tata Motors will no longer be in the picture. The only question is who will be the proud owner of James Bond’s favorite car maker a few years from now.

 

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

Turkey

Food prices escalate dramatically for two reasons:  the lower Lira and then price gouging. Erdogan then began attacking food vendors as terrorists and traders.  Is Erdogan losing touch with his people?

(courtesy zerohedge)

Turkish Government Wages War With “Price-Gouging Terrorist, Traitors” As Food Inflation Soars

Food prices in Turkey have been soaring since the lira’s sharp, violent depreciation last summer. The rise in prices is not only a result of the currency’s depreciation which made the Turkish lira one of the worst performing currencies in the world, but is also a result of price gouging that has become a self-fulfilling prophecy, feeding on itself, over the last 6 months.

According to Bloomberg, the price of eggplants, cucumbers and tomatoes in Turkey has jumped 81%, 53% and 39% monthly, respectively. Overall, food inflation in Turkey is at 31% annualized. 

These soaring prices haven’t gone unnoticed by the Erdogan regime, and instead of focusing on the underlying economic deterioration, the Turkish government has instead started targeting vendors who raise prices, labeling price gougers “traitors” and “terrorists”. 

But this rhetoric isn’t working, so Erdogan is backing up threats with fines: and so, the Turkish government has started cracking down and issuing fines after raiding wholesale food markets in five provinces on February 6, uncovering exorbitant price increases of up to 800%.

To avoid price manipulation, the administration is seeking to eliminate (not literally, yet) middlemen by purchasing vegetables directly from farmers and selling them at lower prices in major cities. Government run vendor tents are up and running at numerous locations as of Monday and sales will soon be expanded to include cleaning products.

Meanwhile, in addition to the depreciation of the Lira, flash floods in Antalya have also contributed to food shortages, pushing prices even higher. Despite this, Treasury and Finance Minister Berat Albayrak dismissed the idea that weather is in any way to blame.

“The inflation reduction campaign is perceived to distort relative prices and to be unsustainable,” a recent Bank of America report read.

One potential wild card: municipal elections in Turkey are just two months away and the fight against inflation will be the hallmark issue, as surging food costs have disproportionately hit poorer sections of the 82 million people that live in Turkey – many of whom have traditionally been supporters of the President’s party. In taking the fight to local areas and warehouses, President Erdogan is trying to make a statement that he is going to fight inflation with the same vigor that the country has used to defend itself militarily in the past. In fact, this being Erdogan, it is probably not a surprise that the Turkish president compared food producers and retailers to terrorists.

Erdogan said Sunday: “The government will finish off those terrorizing wholesale food markets in no time, the way it finished off those terrorists in caves.”

“Our inspections will continue across Turkey at full steam to give no respite to opportunists,” Trade Minister Ruhsar Pekcan said.

Of course, since none of the government’s actions will have any tangible impact, it is only a matter of time before social discontent hits a plateau, and what until recently has been the most stable middle-eastern regime suddenly finds itself scrambling to preserve control. In fact just yesterday, the first hints of instability emerged, when during Erdogan’s first election rally, voters interrupted the Turkish president demanding job contracts. His reply: “Dont expect anything from us. We gave everything. Don’t provocate. I’m not an ordinary leader.” We soon may find out just how extraordinary Turkey’s freshly-heckled leader truly is.

Embedded video

Melvyn Ingleby@MelvynIngleby

Voters interrupt ‘s first local election rally, demanding job contracts. His reply: ‘Dont expect anything from us. We gave everything. Don’t provocate. I’m not an ordinary leader.’

Is the man of the people losing touch?

end

Russia/USA/EU

So what else is new:  the USA and the EU are going to slap new sanctions on Russia for their incursion into the Kerch strait which they had a right to do.

(courtesy zero hedge)

US, EU To Slap New Sanctions On Russia

It’s been at least a few months since the US or western nations unveiled some new, broad sanctions targeting Russia, and with the Mueller “collusion” report due any minute, it’s time for Trump to once again remind the audience of the biggest ever soap opera, that he is not a BFF with Vladimir Putin. As such, the FT reports that the US and EU are close to agreeing a raft of new sanctions against Russia, this time in a co-ordinated push aimed at punishing Moscow for its “aggression” towards Ukraine in the Kerch strait.

More than two months after the incident, and despite repeated appeals from the US and EU states to release them, 24 Ukrainian sailors are still being detained by the Russian authorities, after Russian Navy ships rammed and fired on three Ukrainian vessels that Moscow said were “maneuvering dangerously” near the Kerch Strait. The Russian Coast Guard captured some two dozen sailors after commandeering the ships, which included to Ukrainian artillery ships and a tugboat. Russia has refused to release the ships and the sailors despite demands from European and US officials.

The latest move to counter what has been described in western capitals as “a persistent campaign of malign behavior by Russia”, would be jointly applied by the US and the EU.

The new measures will be discussed at a meeting of EU foreign ministers next Monday according to the FT, and could be levied in the next two months, according to diplomats briefed on the discussions.

“This is waiting in the wings,” said one of the diplomats, citing internal documents. The person added that the new sanctions were expected to be tabled by the end of March.

According to a western government official quoted by the newspaper, the sanctions were expected to be directed at those individuals and companies involved in Russia’s seizure of three Ukrainian naval vessels in the Kerch Strait last November.

News of the latest sanctions hit Russian ETFs such as the RSX, while the USDRUB spiked to session highs, jumping from 65.55 yo 66.20 before retracing some gains.

END

Russia/Ukraine/USA

Russia to the USA:

not a very good idea to hold drills in the Black Sea;

(courtesy zerohedge)

“Dangerous Idea”: Russia Slams Plans To Hold US-Ukrainian Drills In Black Sea

The Russian Foreign Ministry slammed upcoming joint US-Ukraine military exercises which will take place in the Black Sea dubbed operation Sea Breeze-2019, described as a multinational maritime exercise.

“That’s a dangerous idea, and that’s the way we will view it. Prior to that, we will study the facts. They are viewed by us as a dangerous idea,” said Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin on Thuesday.

USS Donald Cook

Moscow has long denounced the now annual maritime exercise as a threat to stability in the region, as it appears but more evidence that the United States is now treating Ukraine as if it were a de facto member of NATO.

Last year’s exercises, co-hosted by Ukraine and the United States, were held in July 2018 near the Odessa and Nikolayev Regions and in the northwestern part of the Black Sea, and involved over 2,000 multi-national servicemen, about 30 warships and aircraft from 19 countries.

Meanwhile the press service of the Defense Ministry of Ukraine confirms that this year, “The international exercises will be held in the north-western part of the Black Sea, in Mykolayiv, Kherson and Odesa regions,” as cited in Defence Blog.

The U.S. Department of Defense has described the Sea Breeze exercises as “a U.S. and Ukraine co-hosted multinational maritime exercise held in the Black Sea and is designed to enhance interoperability of participating nations and strengthen regional maritime security.”

Crucially, and likely the element seen by the Kremlin as most provocative, it’s being further described with the goal of strengthening “combined response capabilities” and to “demonstrate resolve among allied and partner nation forces to ensure stability in the Black Sea region.”

Within the past two months Ukrainian and Pentagon defense planners began a preparatory conference in Kyiv to outline plans for Sea Breeze-2019. As part of the announcement for the conference made late last year, the Deputy Commander of the Ukrainian Navy Oleksandr Neizhpapa specifically invoked “NATO standards” as part of a basic aim of Ukrainian defense forces:

“This year, Sea Breeze 2019 drills are more important than ever. We are working for a result. It is preparedness to manage forces according to NATO standards, achieve interoperability of divisions and ships, and most importantly, Ukrainian-American exercises Sea Breeze 2019 are becoming a real instrument for maintaining stability and security in the Black Sea.”

Though given the ongoing dispute between Moscow and Washington over the collapsing Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) which could take the world to the brink of a “new Cold War”, the situation looks anything but stable.

And by the time Sea Breeze-2019 commences, the INF issue will likely get even hotter as both sides declare their intent to expand offensive and defensive weapons capabilities.

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

 

end

7  OIL ISSUES

 

end

8. EMERGING MARKETS

Venezuela/USA

 

end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1293 UP .0015 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES GREEN 

 

 

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 110.42  UP .020 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.2868    UP   0.0006  (Brexit March 29/ 2017/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3251 DOWN .0051 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS MONDAY morning in Europe, the Euro ROSE by 15 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level RISING to 1.1293/ Last night Shanghai composite closed UP 18.00 POINTS OR 0.68%/

 

 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 27.49  POINTS OR .10% 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP .33%  /EUROPEAN BOURSES GREEN

 

 

 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this TUESDAY morning CLOSED UP 531.94  POINTS OR 2.61% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED GREEN

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 27.49 POINTS OR .10%

 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 18.00 POINTS OR 0.68% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.33%

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 531.94 POINTS OR 2.61%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1313.90

silver:$15.79

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.68% !!! UP 2 IN POINTS from MONDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

 

The 30 yr bond yield 3.02 UP 2  IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 96.96 DOWN 9 CENT(S) from  MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS \12: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.64% DOWN 2     in basis point(s) yield from MONDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.01%  UP 2   BASIS POINTS from MONDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

 

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.24% UP 0   IN basis point yield from MONDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.84 DOWN 6     POINTS in basis point yield from MONDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 161 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: RISES UP TO +.13%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.71% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1318 UP   .0039 or 39 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 110.45 UP  0.061 OR 6 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.2877 UP.0015( POUND UP 15  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar DOWN 55 basis points to 1.3275

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY closed HOLIDAY AT 6.7740 0N SHORE

 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.7805(  YUAN DOWN)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.2629

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.01%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield UP 2 IN basis points from MONDAY at 2.68 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.02 UP 2  in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 96,82 DOWN 24 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 12:00 PM 

London: CLOSED UP 4.03 OR 0.06%

German Dax : UP 111.49 POINTS OR 1.01%

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 41.88 POINTS OR  0.84%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 46.70 POINTS OR  0.52%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 218.72 POINTS OR 1.12%

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 52.68 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 62.78 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    65.92  THE CROSS HIGHER BY 0.13 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE LOWER BY 13 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD RISES TO +.13 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  53.07

 

 

BRENT :  62/41

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.68..

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.01

 

 

 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS:  1.1331 ( UP 53    BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:110.47 UP.072 (YEN DOWN 7   BASIS POINTS/..

 

.

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 96.71 DOWN 34 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA:1.2861  DOWN 60 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 5.2629

the Russian rouble 65.85   down .05 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( DOWN 05 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar:  1.3238 UP 65 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.7740  (ONSHORE)/CLOSED FOR THE WEEK

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.7739  (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.13%

 

The Dow closed UP 372.65 POINTS OR 1.49%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 106.71 POINTS OR 1.46%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  15.33 CLOSED DOWN .64 

 

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.688%  .LIBOR  RATES ARE FALLING/

 

FROM 2.698

 

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY

S&P Soars To Best Start In 28 Years As Collusion, China, & Border Headlines Hit

  • China trade deal – “Looks good” – may delay March 1st tariff deadline.
  • Collusion – “nope” – Senate Intel Committee admits it was all a witch hunt.
  • Border/Shutdown deal – “not happy” but no shutdown expected.

A triple whammy of wins for President Trump and the stock market fell right in line…

While one could shrug off the surge in stocks as an epic dead-cat-bounce from December’s collapse, there is no getting around the fact that today’s spike has sent the S&P 500 to its best start to a year since 1991

As Bloomberg’s Cameron Crise notes, using the last 90 years of SPX data, it still looks pretty good. By my reckoning, it’s the seventh best start to the year through this point since 1928Does that mean that it’s clear sailing from here? Not necessarily. Two of the six years that started better were during the Depression (1931 and 1934), and another was 1987 – not the greatest year for stock market bulls to keep company with.

While Chinese stocks did not surge like the night before’s catch-up, they did extend post-holiday gains on positive trade talk headlines…

 

European stocks went vertical at the open once again overnight and most held their gains (while FTSE drifted into red)…

 

All the major US equity indices surged out of the gate and drifted higher for the best day in Feb…

 

US equities back at their highest since Dec 4th…

 

S&P managed to get back above its 200DMA…

 

VIX plunged to a 15 handle and credit spreads collapsed…

 

Bonds and Stocks remain decoupled since The FOMC…

 

Treasury yields pushed higher on the day by around 2bps or so (which was all driven into the Japanese open as The BoJ tapered) as the IG calendar is still weighing on rates…

 

30Y back above 3.00%…

 

Markets are still pricing in rate-cuts for 2019 (around 8bps)…

 

The dollar suffered its first losing day in the last nine after reaching briefly back into the green for 2019…

 

Bitcoin limped back up to unchanged since Friday, Litecoin continues to hold gains along with Ether…

 

WTI whipped higher and faded – just like it ripped lower and bounced yesterday – as copper drifted lower but PMs held gains on the weaker dollar…

 

 

WTI tagged $54 and dropped ahead of tonight’s API inventory data…

 

Gold has been rangebound for a few days…

 

Palladium continues to rebound back near January highs (as the dollar dips back to unchanged in 2019)…

 

Finally, we note that ‘soft’ survey data continues to languish below current ‘hard’ data (which itself is starting to roll over)…

And this is just funny…

Let’s just hope it’s not 1937 all over again

But that would be ironic given the level of the 1% relative wealth…

END

 

 

MARKET TRADING

ii)Market data/

Small business optimism plunges to the lowest level of Trump’s presidency

(courtesy zerohedge)

Small Business Optimism Plunges To Lowest Level Of Trump Presidency

Now that the sugar high from the Trump tax cuts has worn off, American small business-owners are growing increasingly anxious about a looming economic slowdown.

After a report published last week by Vistage Worldwide suggested that small-business confidence had collapsed with the number of small business owners worried that the economy could worsen in 2019 numbering more than twice those who expected it to improve, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index – a widely watched sentiment gauge – apparently confirmed that more business owners are growing fearful that economic conditions might begin to work against them in the coming months.

Small business

In January, the index slipped 3.2 points in January as more business owners expressed concerns about future economic growth, driving the gauge to a reading of 101.2 – the lowest since the weeks leading up to the 2016 election. Though it remains well above the historical average of 98, and business owners have continued their plans for hiring and investing, a surge in the uncertainty sub-index (which climbed to 86, the fifth highest reading in the NFIB survey’s history), suggested that business owners might soon shift their focus from expanding to preserving their businesses.

“Business operations are still very strong, but small business owners’ expectations about the future are shaky,” said NFIB President and CEO Juanita D. Duggan. “One thing small businesses make clear to us is their dislike for uncertainty, and while they are continuing to create jobs and increase compensation at a frenetic pace, the political climate is affecting how they view the future.”

Still, the report wasn’t without its silver linings: Small businesses added a net 0.33 workers per firm, the best reading since July 2018, as 15% of owners increased employment an average of 3.1 workers per firm. Some 60% of owners reported making capital outlays, down just one point from December. But owners were worried that sales might start to decline in the near future.

According to Bloomberg, the weak reading suggests that the political stalemate in Washington over Trump’s demand for a US-Mexico border wall has harmed sentiment. Notably, the shutdown halted loan applications while the Small Business Administration was closed, while firms struggled to absorb the hit to consumption.

Here are some key takeaways from the NFIB report:

  • Hiring, hiring plans, and job openings remained strong.
  • Inventory spending and capital spending were solid.
  • Owners expressed concerns about future sales growth and business conditions later in the year.
  • There was some deterioration in conditions that would support business expansion.

The number of business owners reporting higher seasonally-adjusted sales over the past three months was just 4% in January, unchanged from the prior month and tied for the lowest reading in a year. Meanwhile, a shortage of qualified workers remained business owners’ top problem.

end

A good JOLTS report showing USA job openings soaring to an all time high and 800,000 more than the fake “unemployed workers”

(courtesy zerohedge)

US Job Opening Soar To All Time High: 800K More Than Unemployed Workers

The Fed’s dovish U-turn appears in jeopardy again.

After a modest slowdown in job openings which started in September and continued through November, today’s November JOLTS report – Janet Yellen’s favorite labor market indicator – for the month of December showed an unprecedented surge in job openings across most categories as the year wound down, with the total number soaring from an upward revised 7.166 million (from 6.888 million),to an all time high 7.335 million, smashing expectations of a 6.846 million print.

And thanks to the surge in job openings, this will be the 10th consecutive month in which there were more job openings then unemployed workersconsidering that according to the payrolls report there were 6,535MM unemployed workers, there is now exactly 800K more job openings than unemployed workers currently, (how accurate, or politically-biased the BLS data is, is another matter entirely).

In other words, in an economy in which there was a perfect match between worker skills and employer needs, there would be zero unemployed people at this moment (of course, that is not the case.)

Another issue: with the Fed positioned for an economic slowdown, the JOLTS data better turn negative fast or else Powell will soon be facing some very unpleasant questions why the Fed’s rate hikes are on pause when the number of job openings in the economy is soaring to unprecedented levels.

According to the BLS, job openings increased in a number of industries, with the largest increases in construction (+88,000), accommodation and food services (+84,000), and health care and social assistance (+79,000). The job openings level decreased in a number of industries, with the largest decreases in nondurable goods manufacturing (-37,000), federal government (-32,000), and real estate and rental and leasing (-31,000). Job openings were unchanged for government jobs.

Adding to the unexpectedly strong labor picture to close the year, as job openings soared, the number of total hires also increased, rising by 95K in December to just shy of an all time high, and printing at 5.907 million. Hires increased in retail trade (+126,000), educational services (+19,000), and mining and logging (+9,000). Hires decreased in information (-22,000) and in federal  government (-10,000). According to the historical correlation between the number of hires and the 12 month cumulative job change (per the Establishment Survey), the pace of hiring right now is precisely where it should be relative to the cumulative change in hiring.

Meanwhile, the so-called “take this job and shove it indicator”, the quits level, edged down slightly, dropping by 12K to 3.482MM, and was little changed for total private but decreased for government (-18,000). Quits increased in professional and business services (+60,000) and in health care and social assistance (+49,000). Quits decreased in a number of industries, with the largest decrease in other services (-42,000).

Putting all this in in context

  • Job openings have increased since a low in July 2009. They returned to the prerecession level in March 2014 and surpassed the prerecession peak in August 2014. There were 7.3 million open jobs on the last business day of December 2018.
  • Hires have increased since a low in June 2009 and have surpassed prerecession levels. In December 2018, there were 5.9 million hires.
  • Quits have increased since a low in September 2009 and have surpassed prerecession levels. In December 2018, there were 3.5 million quits.
  • For most of the JOLTS history, the number of hires (measured throughout the month) has exceeded the number of job openings (measured only on the last business day of the month). Since January 2015, however, this relationship has reversed with job openings outnumbering hires in most months.
  • At the end of the most recent recession in June 2009, there were 1.2 million more hires throughout the month than there were job openings on the last business day of the month. In December 2018, there were 1.4 million fewer hires than job openings.

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

The Republican dominated Senate Intel committee confirms no collusion with Russia to interfere with the election

(courtesy zerohedge)

Stocks Surge As Senate Intel Committee Confirms “No Collusion”

Nearly a year after their colleagues in the House reached a similar conclusion, the Senate Intel Committee said on Tuesday that it was preparing to conclude its investigation into whether the Trump campaign colluded with Russia after finding – get this – no direct evidence of a conspiracy, according to NBC News.

Senate

The investigation is coming to a close after 2 years and more than 200 interviews. Senate Intel Committee Chairman Richard Burr said the decision to end the probe was made after the committee started running out of new questions to ask.

“If we write a report based upon the facts that we have, then we don’t have anything that would suggest there was collusion by the Trump campaign and Russia,” said Sen. Richard Burr, R-N.C., the chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, in an interview with CBS News last week.

Burr was careful to note that more facts may yet be uncovered, but he also made clear that the investigation was nearing an end.
“We know we’re getting to the bottom of the barrel because there’re not new questions that we’re searching for answers to,” Burr said.

Unsurprisingly, Democrats on the committee that the more than 100 contacts between Trump campaign staff and the Russians before Trump’s inauguration (some of which, of course, were made after the election) raised reason for suspicion, though they didn’t challenge Burr’s characterization of the probe.

Democratic Senate investigators who spoke to NBC News on condition of anonymity did not dispute Burr’s characterizations, but said they lacked context.

“We were never going find a contract signed in blood saying, ‘Hey Vlad, we’re going to collude,'” one Democratic aide said.

The series of contacts between Trump’s associates, his campaign officials, his children and various Russians suggest a campaign willing to accept help from a foreign adversary, the Democrats say.

By many counts, Trump and his associates had more than 100 contacts with Russians before the January 2017 presidential inauguration.

Stocks surged on the news.

Collusion

end
Trump not happy with the border wall compromise but he will probably pass it and then go for emergency measures for the rest of the funds. He is open to let Chinese tariff deadline slide if they are close to a deal
(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump “Not Happy With Border Wall Compromise”, Open To Let China Tariff Deadline Slide “If Close To A Deal”

In what may be an attempt to send headline scanning algos buying on tilt, yet without losing face with his core base, moments ago Trump told reporters that he’s “not happy” about the deal reached on Monday night to keep the government open past Friday, and while he did not say whether or not he would support the bill, he said would hold a meeting later today to consider the compromise.

“I can’t say I’m happy. I can’t say I’m thrilled,” Trump told reporters during a Cabinet meeting adding “It’s really obstruction” by Democratic lawmakers and that the tentative agreement is “not doing the trick” but that he may add to it.

Embedded video

POLITICO

@politico

BREAKING: Trump said he’s “not happy” about the border deal Congress reached, but added that he’s happy about “where we’re going.”
“We’re building in the face of tremendous obstruction and tremendous opposition from a small group of people” https://politi.co/2RU04At 

The proposal would provide $1.375 billion in funding for roughly 55 miles of new barriers along the southern border, well short of the $5.7 billion Trump demanded.

Nonetheless, Trump said I don’t think you’re going to see a shutdown. I wouldn’t wanna go through it, no”

Embedded video

CNN Politics

@CNNPolitics

President Trump: “I don’t think you’re going to see a shutdown. I wouldn’t wanna go through it, no” https://cnn.it/2E7WvTE 

Needless to say, Trump’s conservative critics were not happy, and Ann Coulter promptly blasted Trump tweeting that “Trump talks a good game on the border wall but it’s increasingly clear he’s afraid to fight for it.  Call this his “Yellow New Deal.”

Ann Coulter

@AnnCoulter

Trump talks a good game on the border wall but it’s increasingly clear he’s afraid to fight for it. Call this his “Yellow New Deal.”

So to offset any potentially bitter aftertaste, he also said that he is also open to letting the March 1 deadline to raise tariffs on Chinese products “slide” as talks to end the two countries’ trade war continue.

“I could see myself letting that slide” for a while “if we’re close to a deal” Trump said as stocks traded near session highs, and just above the 200DMA.

Some other headlines from the Trump press huddle:

  • TRUMP SAYS NO PLANS FOR NOW TO MEET XI IN MARCH
  • TRUMP SAYS HE WOULD BE OK WITH EITHER A DEAL OR TARIFFS W/CHINA

And now we await actual news out of the trade negotiations, although in a surprising burst of optimism, the Editor in Chief of China’s Global Times tweeted earlier today: “What will happen on March 1? There are several possibilities. But I believe it is the least likely scenario that the two sides announce the negotiations fail and the trade war escalates.

Hu Xijin 胡锡进@HuXijin_GT

What will happen on March 1? There are several possibilities. But I believe it is the least likely scenario that the two sides announce the negotiations fail and the trade war escalates.

END

USA debt now tops 22 trillion dollars. Unfunded liabilities of the uSA =  122 trillion dollars.

(courtesy zerohedge)

US National Debt Tops $22 Trillion

For 8 years, we took every opportunity to point out that under Barack Obama’s administration, US debt was rising at a alarmingly rapid rate, having nearly doubled, surging by $9.3 trillion  during his term.

And while the absolute pace is slower, the trajectory of US debt under the Trump administration looks set to be no different.

We note this because as of close of Monday, the US Treasury reported that total US debt has risen above $22 trillion for the first time; or $22,012,840,891,685.32 to be precise (11 months after topping $21 trillion).

“Reaching this unfortunate milestone so rapidly is the latest sign that our fiscal situation is not only unsustainable but accelerating,” said Michael A. Peterson, chief executive officer of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, a nonpartisan organization working to address the country’s long-term fiscal challenges.

Putting this in context, total US debt has now risen by over $2 trillion since Trump took office… but notably slower than Obama’s pace of borrowing…

 

We doubt today’s milestone will be celebrated on Trump’s twitter account.

And while some can argue – especially adherents of the socialist Magic Money Tree, or MMT, theory – that there is no reason why the exponential debt increase can’t continue indefinitely… the CBO’s long-term forecast of debt issuance is, basically, apocalyptic as the following chart confirms…

But it gets worse, as Double Line’s Jeff Gundlach recently noted…

Jeffrey Gundlach

@TruthGundlach

Currently $122 Trillion US unfunded liabilities per Debtclock. That’s 564% of Fiscal ‘18 GDP. To fund would require 10% of GDP for 56+ yrs.

And worse still – The Fed ain’t buying like it was during Obama’s reign…

“Net borrowing needs will continue to increase due to the expected increase in the deficit combined with funding needs coming from the Fed’s debt run off,” said Margaret Kerins, global head of fixed-income strategy at BMO Capital Markets Corp.

“Given the global backdrop with Brexit and China’s economy slowing down, there is really a bid for safety, liquidity and quality — which means Treasuries — and that’s keeping yields in check to some degree.”

Of course, at some point the market will finally start focusing on America’s long-term – and very much unsustainable – debt picture as the CBO has warned year after year. When it does, and when there is another major selloff in stocks, US Treasurys will no longer be the “safe haven.” If and when that happens, that will be the signal that the time to get out of Dodge has finally arrived.

The debt eclipsing $22 trillion “is another sad reminder of the inexcusable tab our nation’s leaders continue to run up and will leave for the next generation,” said Judd Gregg and Edward Rendell, co-chairmen of the nonpartisan Campaign to Fix the Debt, a project of the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

Especially if The Dems win in 2020 and GND is unleashed.

iv)SWAMP STORIES

John Solomon of the Hill gives mounting evidence that it was the Democrats that colluded with Russia and not Trump

important…

(courtesy zerohedge)

Solomon: Evidence Mounts Of Democrats’ Collusion With Russia

After Congressional investigations in both the House and Senate have failed to produce evidence that Donald Trump and his campaign colluded with Russia to steal the 2016 US election from Hillary Clinton, The Hill‘s John Solomon points out the deafening silence over clear links between the Kremlin and the woman who would have been President had Donald Trump lost

Aside from the fact that the Clinton-funded Steele Dossier heavily relied on a Russian source. And the fact that John Podesta (who would have likely become Secretary of State) sat on the board of an energy company with a Kremlin official and a Russian oligarch – tangible evidence of Russian collusion exists, Solomon digs deeper into the upside-down to reveal Russian ties that would see Donald Trump jailed for treason by the left’s standards. 

Congressional investigators have painstakingly pieced together evidence that shows the Clinton research project had extensive contact with Russians.

Steele’s main source of uncorroborated allegations against Trump came from an ex-Russian intelligence officer. “Much of the collection about the Trump campaign ties to Russia comes from a former Russian intelligence officer (? not entirely clear) who lives in the U.S.,” Ohr scribbled. –The Hill

In today’s episode of the Twilight Zone, Solomon spotlights Hillary Clinton’s close relationship with Russian leaders which raised concerns over a wholesale technology transfer to the Kremlin, right around the time of the Uranium One deal and Bill Clinton’s now-infamous trip to Russia (where he hung out at Putin’s house) and picked up a $500,000 check for one speech.

As secretary of State, Hillary Clinton worked with Russian leaders, including Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and then-President Dmitri Medvedev, to create U.S. technology partnerships with Moscow’s version of Silicon Valley, a sprawling high-tech campus known as Skolkovo.

Clinton’s handprint was everywhere on the 2009-2010 project, the tip of a diplomatic spear to reboot U.S.-Russian relations after years of hostility prompted by Vladimir Putin’s military action against the former Soviet republic and now U.S. ally Georgia.

A donor to the Clinton FoundationRussian oligarch Viktor Vekselberg, led the Russian side of the effort, and several American donors to the Clinton charity got involved. Clinton’s State Department facilitated U.S. companies working with the Russian project, and she personally invited Medvedev to visit Silicon Valley.

 

The collaboration occurred at the exact same time Bill Clinton made his now infamous trip to Russia to pick up a jaw-dropping $500,000 check for a single speech. –The Hill

The Clinton State Department ignored a 2013 warning from the US military’s leading European intelligence think tank over the Skolkovo project – which suggested that it could be a front for economic and military espionage

“Skolkovo is an ambitious enterprise, aiming to promote technology transfer generally, by inbound direct investment, and occasionally, through selected acquisitions. As such, Skolkovo is arguably an overt alternative to clandestine industrial espionage — with the additional distinction that it can achieve such a transfer on a much larger scale and more efficiently,” reads a 2013 EUCOM intelligence bulletin.

“Implicit in Russia’s development of Skolkovo is a critical question — a question that Russia may be asking itself — why bother spying on foreign companies and government laboratories if they will voluntarily hand over all the expertise Russia seeks?

The FBI followed EUCOM’s warning the following year with letters outlining the dangers of US tech companies falling prey to Russian espionage through the Skolkovo project. A Boston FBI agent in particular wrote an “extraordinary op-ed to publicize the alarm,” writes Solomon.

The Skolkovo project “may be a means for the Russian government to access our nation’s sensitive or classified research development facilities and dual-use technologies with military and commercial application,” wrote Assistant Special Agent Lucia Ziobro in the Boston Business Journal.

The FBI also sounded the alarm about the Uranium One deal – after an informant named William D. Campbell infiltrated the Russian state-owned energy giant Rosatom and gathered evidence of a racketeering scheme which included bribery, kickbacks and extortion.

Campbell also obtained written evidence that Putin wanted to buy Uranium One as part of a strategy to obtain monopolistic domination of the global uranium markets, including leverage over the U.S.

Campbell also warned that a major in-kind donor to the Clinton Global Initiative was simultaneously working for Rosatom while the decision for U.S. approval was pending before Hillary Clinton’s department. Ultimately, her department and the Obama administration approved the transaction.

The evidence shows the Clintons financially benefited from Russia — personally and inside their charity — at the same time they were involved in U.S. government actions that rewarded Moscow and increased U.S. security risks. –The Hill

Beyond the Steele Dossier

While it is now publicly known (and below the investigatory double-standards of the DOJ to pursue) that the Steele dossier was a clear case of Russian collusion against then-candidate Donald Trump, there lies a lesser-known link between the Steele Dossier and a Belarus-born Russian businessman, Sergei Milian.

What’s more, “Steele and Simpson had Russian-tied business connections, too, while they formulated the dossier,” writes Solomon.

Steele worked for the lawyers for Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska and tried to leverage those connections to help the FBI get evidence from the Russian aluminum magnate against Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort.

The effort resulted in FBI agents visiting Deripaska in fall 2016. Deripaska told the agents that no collusion existed.

Likewise, Simpson worked in 2016 for the Russian company Prevezon — which was trying to escape U.S. government penalties — and one of its Russian lawyers, Natalia Veselnitskaya. In sworn testimony before the Senate Judiciary Committee, Simpson admitted he dined with Veselnitskaya both the night before and the night after her infamous meeting with Donald Trump Jr. at Trump Tower in June 2016. –The Hill

And yet, nobody bats an eye.

end

Justin Fairfax had two staffers resign following the second accusation of sexual assault

(courtesy zerohedge)

Fairfax Staffers Resign Following Second Accusation Of Sexual Assault

Two of Virginia Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax’s staffers and two employees of his political action committee have resigned following a Friday report of a second sexual assault allegation against the embattled politician, according to the Richmond Times-Dispatch.

The PAC employees who left are Dave Mills, who was the executive director of We Rise Together, and Courtney McCargo, a fundraiser for the PAC.

Mills is the husband of state Sen. Jennifer McClellan, D-Richmond, who is considered a strong contender to replace Fairfax as lieutenant governor should Fairfax resign.

On the government side, Adele McClure, the policy director, resigned, as did Julia Billingsly, the scheduling director. –Richmond Times-Dispatch

Still standing by Fairfax – so far, are communications director Lauren Burke who is employed by his PAC, and his chief of staff Larry Roberts, who remains a state employee.

According to the Times-Dispatch, the job of lieutenant governor is part time – while law firm Morrison & Foerster has placed Fairfax on paid leave.

As we reported last week, Meredith Watson, a friend of Fairfax’s at Duke University when they were both undergraduates, alleges that Fairfax raped her in a “premeditated and aggressive” assault in 2000. 

Watson is the second woman to come forward alleging Fairfax sexually assaulted her.

Speaking through an attorney, Nancy Erika Smith, Watson said that she shared her claim immediately after it happened with several classmates who have provided statements, while her lawyer added that Wilson shared her account with friends in several Facebook messages and emails.

Smith said the details of Watson’s attack are similar to those described by Tyson.

Kaneedreck Adams, 40, an attorney who attended Duke with Watson and said in the spring of 2000, when they lived across from each other in on-campus apartments, Watson came to her crying.

“She was upset,” Adams said. “She told me she had been raped and she named Justin.” –WaPo

Watson’s statement is as follows:

We serve as counsel for Meredith Watson, who was raped by Justin Fairfax in 2000, while they were both students at Duke University. Mr. Fairfax’s attack was premeditated and aggressive. The two were friends but never dated or had any romantic relationship.

Ms. Watson shared her account of the rape with friends in a series of emails and Facebook messages that are now in our possession. Additionally, we have statements from former classmates corroborating that Ms. Watson immediately told friends that Mr. Fairfax had raped her.

Ms. Watson was upset to learn that Mr. Fairfax raped at least one other woman after he attacked her. The details of Ms. Watson’s attack are similar to those described by Dr. Vanessa Tyson.

At this time, Ms. Watson is reluctantly coming forward out of a strong sense of civic duty and her belief that those seeking or serving in public office should be of the highest character. She has no interest in becoming a media personality or reliving the trauma that has greatly affected her life. Similarly, she is not seeking any financial damages.

On behalf of our client, we have notified Justin Fairfax through his attorneys that Ms. Watson hopes he will resign from public office.

According to Lauren Burke, “we’re calling for an investigation on all of these matters,” adding that Fairfax would respond at a later time.

end

Trump calls for Rep Omar to resign as conservatives fume over democrat double standards.They should put Stephen King back in and then fight it out.

(courtesy zerohedge)

Trump Calls For Rep. Omar To Resign As Conservatives Fume Over Democrat Double-Standards

Conservatives are fuming after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) refused to remove Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) from the House Foreign Affairs Committee over a Sunday night tweet widely interpreted as anti-Semitic, followed by a criticism of pro-Israel money in US politics. Omar issued a Monday apology, which many have compared to Rep. Steve King (R-IA) – who apologized in January over controversial remarks, yet was stripped of his committee assignments after Congressional Democrats demanded his removal.

President Trump on Tuesday said to White House reporters of Omar: “I think she should either resign from congress or she should certainly resign from the House Foreign Affairs Committee.

Trump added that her apology was “lame.”

Yamiche Alcindor

@Yamiche

President Trump also spoke of Rep. Omar’s comments on Israel: “I think she should either resign from congress or she should certainly resign from the House Foreign Affairs Committee.”

Trump added that her comments are “deep seeded in her heart” and called her apology “lame.”

While some have defended Rep. Omar’s right to criticize Israeli money in US politics, and others have called for her to be stripped of her committee assignment, many conservatives have noted a double-standard among Democrats, who just last month called for Rep. Steve King’s headafter he asked in a New York Timesinterview when the phrases “White nationalist, white supremacist” and “western civilization” became offensive. King apologized and said he was misquoted, yet was still removed from his committee assignments by House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy.

Lee Zeldin

@RepLeeZeldin

Glad the Speaker broke her silence, but that apology won’t do. Rep. Omar should be stripped of her committee assignments, including @HouseForeign, & HRes72 should be voted on. Rep. S King apologized as well. Was still stripped of assignments & HRes41 passed nearly unanimously.

Nancy Pelosi

@SpeakerPelosi

In our conversation today, Congresswoman Omar and I agreed that we must use this moment to move forward as we reject anti-Semitism in all forms. https://goo.gl/isKX97

View image on Twitter
Steve Scalise

@SteveScalise

Good that some Dems have condemned the disgraceful anti-Semitic remarks of Rep. Omar—but their words are empty unless Dem leaders remove her from the Foreign Affairs Committee. No one with her anti-Semitic views should be allowed to represent US foreign policy on that committee.

Heather R. Higgins

@TheHRH

Steve King was stripped of his committees and Rep. Omar is still on House Foreign Affairs?? Hello @SpeakerPelosi? @IWV
Ilhan Omar Apologizes for Statements Condemned as Anti-Semitic https://nyti.ms/2E4hBlN

Ronna McDaniel

@GOPChairwoman

Democrat Ilhan Omar has called Israel “evil,” compared Israel to Iran, continues to push anti-Semitic tropes, and supports the anti-Semitic BDS movement to boycott Israel.

Nancy Pelosi was wrong to elevate her to the Foreign Affairs Committee.

Now Pelosi should remove her.

7,490 people are talking about this

When asked if she’s worried, Omar said “Absolutely not.”

Embedded video

Kyle Morris

@RealKyleMorris

When questioned this evening on whether she was worried about losing “committee assignments” over her anti-Semitic tweets, Rep. Ilhan Omar said, “Absolutely not.”

2,257 people are talking about this

King, meanwhile is fighting to get his committee assignments back – releasing a letter Tuesday from over 200 “pro-family leaders” to McCarthy, who slammed the House Minority Leader for believing “a liberal news organization famous for their bias,” over a member of Congress who they say has served his constituents in Iowa “honorably” for the last 16 years.

“Don’t make the fatal mistake of turning the reins of the U.S. Congress over to the liberal media, allowing them to target, misquote, and falsely brand any member of Congress they wish to remove,” King’s letter, dated Feb 5, reads.

Steve King

@SteveKingIA

200 pro-family leaders wrote @GOPLeader McCarthy asking him “to do the right thing” & reinstate my committees. They know when the “outrageous misquote” of a biased & liberal NYTimes takes free rein to “falsely brand” Republicans, no conservative is safe . https://tinyurl.com/yb59fg8y

201 people are talking about this

The letter calls on McCarthy to apologize, and includes signatures from former Republican House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, Frank Gaffney of the Center for Security Policy and evangelical leader James Dobson.

“I reject white nationalism. I reject white supremacy. It’s not part of any of my ideology. I reject anyone who carries that ideology,” said King in an apology, adding that he had been misquoted.

SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
and special thanks to Chris Powell of GATA for sending this down for us:

China upbeat on U.S. trade talks, but South China Sea tensions weigh

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-idUSKCN1Q00KQ

Stocks declined steadily from the open high until a rally into the European close materialized.  The rally was modest; but it continued into midday.  Then stocks retreated when the afternoon began.  But the decline halted when the S&P 500 Index got within one handle of the morning low.

Trump Has China Where He Needs It: J. Kyle Bass and Dan Babich

The country’s pernicious debt load and rapidly weakening economy mean the U.S. has more leverage in trade talks now than it ever had before.

    History tells us that growth that is funded by excessively rapid credit and money creation can lead to a variety of asset bubbles and to financial, credit and currency crises…

     China’s total credit at $48 trillion, about 3.7 times its gross domestic product. That compares with $24 trillion for the U.S. despite China having an economy that is 37 percent smaller…

    Reducing tariff rates and adjusting foreign ownership rules would be a good thing, but this would not end China’s long-standing policy of bulk economic espionage and theft, which annually costs America’s economy at least $300 billion… Trump’s administration should continue to push for this and not end talks until there is permanent change in China’s behavior.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-02-11/trump-can-t-waste-china-trade-talks

@WashPostPR: House Intelligence chairman voices concern that Mueller’s scrutiny of Trump’s finances isn’t adequate, by The Post’s @gregpmiller

https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/house-intelligence-chairman-voices-concern-that-muellers-scrutiny-of-trumps-finances-isnt-adequate/

 

@ggreenwald: In anticipation of the less-than-devastating Mueller report he wanted, @RepAdamSchiff is now starting to attack Robert Mueller’s investigation as inadequate, lax and negligent. Is it now permissible to impugn the former FBI Director & Special Counsel?

 

From the DJT-haters at BBG Opinion: Trump Is Rooting for Ocasio-Cortez’s Democratic Party

With opponents like these, a terrible and unpopular president might actually get re-elected.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-02-11/u-s-election-ocasio-cortez-s-ideas-could-cost-democrats-in-2020

 

DJT’s approval (Rasmussen likely voters) has jumped to 52% due to his SOTU address, Dems’ fanatical socialist pronouncements and some anti-Semitic rantings from a couple new Dem representatives.

 

@RepMarkMeadows: Democrats now want a hard cap on the number of beds at ICE detention facilities. How is that a serious or defensible position? They are openly trying to hamstring law enforcement and make it easier for thousands of migrants (some with criminal records) to be released into the US.

 

@realDonaldTrump: The Democrats do not want us to detain, or send back, criminal aliens! This is a brand new demand. Crazy!

 

@charliekirk11: In the past 2 years Immigration officers arrested 266,000 Criminal aliens with previous convictions, including: 100,000 assaults; 30,000 sex crimes; 4,000 murders

 

The New Republic: The Spy Who Wasn’t – The U.S. government went looking for someone to blame for Russia’s interference in the 2016 election—and found Maria Butina, the perfect scapegoat.

    The government’s case against Butina is extremely flimsy and appears to have been driven largely by a desire for publicity… federal prosecutors were forced to retract the most attention-grabbing allegation in the case—that Butina used sex to gain access and influence. That Butina’s prosecution was launched by the National Security Section of the District of Columbia federal prosecutor’s office, led by Gregg Maisel, is telling in itself: According to a source close to the Mueller investigation, the special counsel’s office had declined to pursue the case, even though it would have clearly fit under its mandate…

     Lacking evidence of espionage, money laundering, passing cash to the Trump campaign, violating Russian sanctions, or any other crime, prosecutors finally turned to Section 951, acting as an unregistered agent of a foreign power…

      On December 28, Russian authorities arrested an American citizen, Paul Nicholas Whelan, a former Marine attending a wedding in Moscow, and charged him with espionage… Now facing a possible 20-year prison term in Russia, he was likely arrested simply in retaliation for Butina’s arrest

     When I asked Frank Figliuzzi, the former head of the FBI’s Counterintelligence Division, about the prosecution’s conduct, he was angry. “I am troubled and hope there is a full inquiry,” he told me. “This is disturbing. The question is whether this is convenient ineptitude or something far deeper.”…

https://newrepublic.com/article/153036/maria-butina-profile-wasnt-russian-spy

 

FBI General Counsel Talked to Hillary Clinton’s Lawyer about Comey’s Letter on Weiner Laptop Clinton Emails –Baker then forwarded the conversation to his FBI colleagues.

    The documents also further describe a previously reported quid pro quo from the Obama State Department offering the FBI more legal attaché positions if it would downgrade a redaction in an email found during the Hillary Clinton email investigation “from classified to something else.”…

    “It is big news that, just days before the presidential election, Hillary Clinton’s personal lawyer pressured the top lawyer for the FBI on the infamous Weiner laptop emails,” said Judicial Watch President Tom Fitton. “These documents further underscore that the fix was in for Hillary Clinton. When will the Justice Department and FBI finally do an honest investigation of the Clinton email scandal?”…

https://www.judicialwatch.org/press-room/press-releases/judicial-watch-fbi-general-counsel-talked-to-hillary-clintons-lawyer-about-comeys-letter-on-weiner-laptop-clinton-emails/

 

February is African American History Month.  The MSM will honor notable African Americans this month.  Thomas Sowell, a prolific writer and socio-economist, will be ignored because he is a strident advocate of Friedman libertarianism and a biting critic of socialism/big government.

 

Sowell, born in abject poverty in North Carolina and raised in Harlem, is an ex-Marine/Korean War veteran that was later educated in economics at Harvard (BA 1958), Columbia (MA 1959) and the U of Chicago (PhD 1968).  Once, he was a MSM hero.  After Sowell transformed from a Marxist to a Friedman libertarian (self-proclaimed), the usual suspects made him persona non grata.

 

Notable Sowell quotes:

There has never been a shortage of people eager to draw up blueprints for running other people’s lives.

 

The welfare state is not really about the welfare of the masses. It is about the egos of the elites.

 

Hawaii recorded what may be the lowest elevation snow in state history

https://www.sfgate.com/weather/article/Hawaii-recorded-what-may-be-the-lowest-elevation-13607099.php

 

Meteorologist @spann: Haleakala National Park Summit District in Hawaii remains closed to all visitors due to snowy and icy road conditions and power outages:  http://www.mauinews.com/news/local-news/2019/02/haleakala-summit-closed-snow-in-forecast/

-END-

I WILL SEE YOU WEDNESDAY NIGHT
HARVEY
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