MARCH 12/GOLD ADVANCES SMARTLY UP $7.00 TO $1298.00/AND THEN CONTINUES IN THE ACCESS MARKET TO $1301.00//SILVER ADVANCES 14 CENTS TO $15.41 AND THEN CONTINUES TO $15.45 ON TIGHTNESS IN LONDON AND COMEX (ANOTHER DAY OF QUEUE JUMPING)//CHINA MAY BE APPROACHING ITS MINSKY MOMENT AS ANOTHER 6 BILLION IN DEBT WAS HIDDEN: TRUE DEBT TO GDP 340%//USA WARNS ITALY NOT TO COZY UP TO CHINA: ITALY WANTS TO JOIN THE SILK ROAD PROJECT//MANY COUNTRIES GROUND THEIR BOEING 737 MAX 8//MORE SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT///

 

 

 

GOLD: $1298.00 UP $7.00 (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Silver:   $15.41 UP 14 CENTS (COMEX TO COMEX CLOSING)

Closing access prices:

Gold :  $1301.60

 

silver: $15.45

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For comex gold and silver:

MARCH

 

 

 

NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED TODAY FOR  MAR CONTRACT: 8 NOTICE(S) FOR 800 OZ (0.0249 tonnes)

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED SO FAR:  335 NOTICES FOR 33500 OZ  (1.0419 TONNES)

 

 

SILVER

 

FOR MARCH

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 

14 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 70,000  OZ/

 

total number of notices filed so far this month: 4872 for 24,360,000

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Bitcoin: OPENING MORNING TRADE $3883:UP $14

 

Bitcoin: FINAL EVENING TRADE: $3863  DOWN 53

 

end

 

XXXX

JPMorgan or Goldman Sachs are taking a huge issuance (stopping) of gold at the comex.

today  4/8

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MARCH 2019 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 1,288.800000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 03/11/2019 DELIVERY DATE: 03/13/2019
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
____________________________________________________________________________________________
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1
661 C JP MORGAN 4
737 C ADVANTAGE 7 3
905 C ADM 1
____________________________________________________________________________________________

TOTAL: 8 8
MONTH TO DATE: 335

Let us have a look at the data for today

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In silver, the total OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 648 CONTRACTS FROM 191,346 DOWN TO 190,698 WITH YESTERDAY’S 7 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX.(TODAY WE ARRIVED FURTHER FROM  AUGUST’S 2018  RECORD SETTING OPEN INTEREST OF 244,196 CONTRACTS. WE ALWAYS WITNESS A CONTRACTION IN TOTAL OI AS WE APPROACH FIRST DAY NOTICE AND IT SEEMS THE CULPRIT IS THE FORCED LIQUIDATION OF SPREADERS.

WE HAVE ALSO WITNESSED A LARGE AMOUNT OF PHYSICAL METAL STAND FOR COMEX DELIVERY AS WELL WE ARE WITNESSING CONSIDERABLE LONGS PACKING THEIR BAGS AND MIGRATING OVER TO LONDON IN GREATER NUMBERS IN THE FORM OF EFP’S.  WE WERE  NOTIFIED  THAT WE HAD A SMALL SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONGS TRANSFERRING THEIR CONTRACTS TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP:

0 EFP’S FOR MARCH,  0 FOR APRIL,  1383 FOR MAY, 0 FOR DECEMBER AND ZERO FOR ALL  OTHER MONTHS  AND THEREFORE TOTAL ISSUANCE: OF 1383 CONTRACTS. WITH THE TRANSFER OF 1383 CONTRACTS, WHAT THE CME IS STATING IS THAT THERE IS NO SILVER (OR GOLD) TO BE DELIVERED UPON AT THE COMEX AS THEY MUST EXPORT THEIR OBLIGATION TO LONDON. ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE CAN BE A DELAY OF 24-48 HRS IN THE ISSUING OF EFP’S. THE 857 EFP CONTRACTS TRANSLATES INTO 6.915 MILLION OZ  ACCOMPANYING:

1.THE 7 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICE AT THE COMEX AND

2. THE STRONG AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES WHICH STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE LAST NINE MONTHS:

JUNE/2018. (5.420 MILLION OZ);

FOR JULY: 30.370 MILLION OZ

FOR AUG., 6.065 MILLION OZ

FOR SEPT. 39.505 MILLION  OZ S

FOR OCT.2.525 MILLION OZ.

FOR NOV:  A HUGE 7.440 MILLION OZ STANDING  AND

21.925 MILLION OZ FINALLY STAND FOR DECEMBER.

5.845 MILLION OZ STAND IN JANUARY.

2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING FOR FEBRUARY.

AND NOW: 26.360 MILLION OZ STANDING IN MARCH.

 

 

ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S/SILVER/J.P.MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES, / STARTING FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE/FOR MONTH OF MARCH:

19,240 CONTRACTS (FOR 8 TRADING DAYS TOTAL 19,240 CONTRACTS) OR 96.20 MILLION OZ: (AVERAGE PER DAY: 2405 CONTRACTS OR 12.025 MILLION OZ/DAY)

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE HUGE SUPPLY THIS MONTH IN SILVER:  SO FAR THIS MONTH OF MAR:  96.20 MILLION PAPER OZ HAVE MORPHED OVER TO LONDON. THIS REPRESENTS AROUND 13.74% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION (EX CHINA EX RUSSIA)*  JUNE’S 345.43 MILLION OZ IS THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT FOLLOWED THE RECORD SET IN APRIL 2018 OF 385.75 MILLION OZ.

ACCUMULATION IN YEAR 2019 TO DATE SILVER EFP’S:          461.10    MILLION OZ.

JANUARY 2019 EFP TOTALS:                                                      217.455. MILLION OZ

FEB 2019 TOTALS:                                                                       147.4       MILLION OZ/

 

 

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 648 WITH THE 7 CENT LOSS IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX /YESTERDAY..THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD   SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE OF 1383 CONTRACTS WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX AND TRANSFERRED THEIR OI TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. SPECULATORS CONTINUED THEIR INTEREST IN ATTACKING THE SILVER COMEX FOR PHYSICAL SILVER (SEE COMEX DATA) .

TODAY WE STRANGELY GAINED A SMALL SIZED: 735 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: (DESPITE THE RAID)

i.e 1383 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS HEADED FOR LONDON  (EFP’s) TOGETHER WITH DECREASE OF 648 OI COMEX CONTRACTS. AND ALL OF THIS  DEMAND HAPPENED WITH A 7 CENT LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER  AND A CLOSING PRICE OF $15.27 WITH RESPECT TO YESTERDAY’S TRADING. YET WE HAVE A GIGANTIC AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX FOR DELIVERY 

 

 

In ounces AT THE COMEX, the OI is still represented by JUST UNDER 1 BILLION oz i.e. 0.975 BILLION OZ TO BE EXACT or 139% of annual global silver production (ex Russia & ex China).

FOR THE NEW FRONT FEBRUARY MONTH/ THEY FILED AT THE COMEX: 14 NOTICE(S) FOR 70,000 OZ OF SILVER

IN SILVER,PRIOR TO TODAY, WE  SET THE NEW COMEX RECORD OF OPEN INTEREST AT 243,411 CONTRACTS ON APRIL 9.2018 AND AGAIN THIS HAS BEEN SET WITH A LOW PRICE OF $16.51.  

AND NOW WE RECORD FOR POSTERITY ANOTHER ALL TIME RECORD OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX OF 244,196 CONTRACTS ON AUGUST 22/2018 AND AGAIN WHEN THIS RECORD WAS SET, THE PRICE OF SILVER WAS $14.78 AND LOWER IN PRICE THAN PREVIOUS RECORDS.

ON THE DEMAND SIDE WE HAVE THE FOLLOWING:

  1. HUGE AMOUNTS OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY  (MARCH/2018: 27 MILLION OZ , APRIL/2018 : 2.485 MILLION OZ  MAY: 36.285 MILLION OZ ; JUNE/2018  (5.420 MILLION OZ) , JULY 2018 FINAL AMOUNT STANDING: 30.370 MILLION OZ   )  FOR AUGUST 6.065 MILLION OZ. , SEPT:  A HUGE 39.505 MILLION OZ./ OCTOBER: 2,520,000 oz  NOV AT 7.440 MILLION OZ./ DEC. AT 21.925 MILLION OZ   JANUARY AT  5.825 MILLION OZ.AND FEB 2019:  2.955 MILLION OZ/AND NOW MARCH: 26.360 MILLION OZ/
  2. HUGE RECORD OPEN INTEREST IN SILVER 243,411 CONTRACTS (OR 1.217 BILLION OZ/ SET APRIL 9/2018) AND NOW AUGUST 22/2018:  244,196 CONTRACTS,  WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78.
  3. HUGE ANNUAL EFP’S ISSUANCE EQUAL TO 2.9 BILLION OZ OR 400% OF SILVER ANNUAL PRODUCTION/2017
  4. RECORD SETTING EFP ISSUANCE FOR ANY MONTH IN SILVER; APRIL/2018/ 385.75 MILLION OZ/  AND THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE JUNE 2018 345.43 MILLION OZ

AND YET, WITH THE EXTREMELY HIGH EFP ISSUANCE, WE HAVE A CONTINUAL LOW PRICE OF SILVER DESPITE THE ABOVE HUGE DEMAND.  TO ME THE ONLY ANSWER IS THAT WE HAVE SOVEREIGN  (CHINA) WHO IS ENDEAVOURING TO GOBBLE UP ALL AVAILABLE PHYSICAL SILVER NO MATTER WHERE, EXACTLY WHAT J.P.MORGAN IS DOING. AND IT IS MY BELIEF THAT J.P.MORGAN IS HOLDING ITS SILVER FOR ITS BENEFICIAL OWNER..THE USA GOVERNMENT WHO IN TURN IS HOLDING THAT SILVER FOR CHINA.(FOR A SILVER LOAN REPAYMENT).

 

IN GOLD, THE OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY ANOTHER STRONG 5,180 CONTRACTS UP TO 518,975 DESPITE THE NASTY FALL IN THE COMEX GOLD PRICE/(A DROP IN PRICE OF $8.00//YESTERDAY’S TRADING). HOWEVER…….

 

 

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCAND IT TOTALED A  GOOD SIZED 4688 CONTRACTS:

 

MARCH HAD AN ISSUANCE OF 0 CONTACTS  APRIL 4688 CONTRACTS,JUNE: 0 CONTRACTS DECEMBER: 0 CONTRACTS AND ALL OTHER MONTHS ZERO.  The NEW COMEX OI for the gold complex rests at 523,054. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE WILL BE A DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S.  THE BANKERS REMOVE LONG POSITIONS OF COMEX GOLD IMMEDIATELY.  THEN THEY ORCHESTRATE THEIR PRIVATE EFP DEAL WITH THE LONGS AND THAT COULD TAKE AN ADDITIONAL, 48 HRS SO WE GENERALLY DO NOT GET A MATCH WITH RESPECT TO DEPARTING COMEX LONGS AND NEW EFP LONG TRANSFERS. . EVEN THOUGH THE BANKERS ISSUED THESE MONSTROUS EFPS, THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS TO SUPPLY METAL BUT IT TRANSFERS THE RISK TO A LONDON BANKER OBLIGATION AND NOT A NEW YORK COMEX OBLIGATION. LONGS RECEIVE A FIAT BONUS TOGETHER WITH A LONG LONDON FORWARD. THUS, BY THESE ACTIONS, THE BANKERS AT THE COMEX HAVE JUST STATED THAT THEY HAVE NO APPRECIABLE METAL!! THIS IS A MASSIVE FRAUD: THEY CANNOT SUPPLY ANY METAL TO OUR COMEX LONGS BUT THEY ARE QUITE WILLING TO SUPPLY MASSIVE NON BACKED GOLD (AND SILVER) PAPER KNOWING THAT THEY HAVE NO METAL TO SATISFY OUR LONGS. LONDON IS NOW SEVERELY BACKWARD IN BOTH GOLD AND SILVER  AND WE ARE WITNESSING DELAYS IN ACTUAL DELIVERIES.

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE  A HUGE SIZED GAIN IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 9868 CONTRACTS: 5180 OI CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX AND 4688 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS  TOTAL OI GAIN OF 9868 CONTRACTS OR 986,800= 30.69 TONNES.

YESTERDAY WE HAD A LOSS IN THE PRICE OF GOLD TO THE TUNE OF $8.00.AND WITH THAT, WE HAD A HUGE GAIN IN TONNAGE OF 30.68 TONNES??.

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY, WE HAD 8025 EFP’S ISSUED.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH : 62,277 CONTRACTS OR 6,227,700 OZ OR 193.70 TONNES (8 TRADING DAYS AND THUS AVERAGING: 7784 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE STRONG SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 8 TRADING DAYS IN  TONNES: 193.70 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2018, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 2555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 193.70/2550 x 100% TONNES = 7.59% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION SO FAR IN DECEMBER ALONE.***

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2019 TO DATE:     1069.1 TONNES

JANUARY 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE;   531.20 TONNES

FEB 2019 TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:             344.36 TONNES

 

 

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE

 

 

Result: A STRONG SIZED SIZED INCREASE IN OI AT THE COMEX OF 5180 DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICING ($8.00) THAT GOLD UNDERTOOK YESTERDAY) //.WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF COMEX LONG TRANSFERRING TO LONDON THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE: 4688 CONTRACTS AS THESE HAVE ALREADY BEEN NEGOTIATED AND CONFIRMED.   THERE OBVIOUSLY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE COMEX.  I GUESS IT EXPLAINS THE HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S…THERE IS HARDLY ANY GOLD PRESENT AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DELIVERY PURPOSES. IF YOU TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE 4688 EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED, WE  HAD A GIGANTIC GAIN OF 9868 CONTRACTS IN TOTAL OPEN INTEREST  ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:

4688 CONTRACTS MOVE TO LONDON AND 5180 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX. (IN TONNES, THE STRONG GAIN IN TOTAL OI EQUATES TO 30.69 TONNES). ..AND ALL OF THIS HUGE  DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A LOSS OF $8.00 IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING AT THE COMEX????

 

 

 

we had:  8 notice(s) filed upon for 800 oz of gold at the comex.

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD...

 

WITH GOLD UP  $7.00 TODAY 

 

A HUGE ADDITIONS  (DEPOSIT) TODAY:

A DEPOSIT OF 2.94 TONNES

 

 

INVENTORY RESTS AT 769.53 TONNES

 

 

TO ALL INVESTORS THINKING OF BUYING GOLD THROUGH THE GLD ROUTE: YOU ARE MAKING A TERRIBLE MISTAKE AS THE CROOKS ARE USING WHATEVER GOLD COMES IN TO ATTACK BY SELLING THAT GOLD.  IT SURE SEEMS TO ME THAT THE GOLD OBLIGATIONS AT THE GLD EXCEED THEIR INVENTORY

 

SLV/

WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS  IN PRICE  TODAY:

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.

 

 

 

/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.676 MILLION OZ.

 

 

end

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1. Today, we had the open interest in SILVER FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 648 CONTRACTS from 191,346 DOWN TO 190,698 AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW COMEX RECORD SET LAST IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  1 1/3 YEARS AGO.  THE PRICE OF SILVER ON THAT DAY: $17.89.  AS YOU CAN SEE, WE HAVE RECORD HIGH OPEN INTERESTS IN SILVER  ACCOMPANIED BY A CONTINUAL LOWER PRICE WHEN THAT RECORD WAS SET…..

 

.

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

 

0 CONTRACTS FOR MARCH. 0 CONTRACTS FOR APRIL., 1,383 FOR MAY AND  AND ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1,383 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE  OI LOSS AT THE COMEX OF 648 CONTRACTS TO THE 1383 OI TRANSFERRED TO LONDON THROUGH EFP’S,  WE  OBTAIN  A SMALL GAIN  OF 735  OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS.  THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES: 3.675 MILLION OZ!!! AND YET WE ALSO HAVE A STRONG DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL AS WE WITNESSED A FINAL STANDING OF GREATER THAN 30 MILLION OZ FOR JULY, A STRONG 6.065 MILLION OZ FOR AUGUST..  A HUGE 39.505  MILLION OZ  STANDING FOR SILVER IN SEPTEMBER… OVER 2 million  OZ STANDING FOR THE NON ACTIVE MONTH OF OCTOBER.,  7.440 MILLION OZ FINALLY STANDING IN NOVEMBER.  21.925 MILLION OZ STANDING IN DECEMBER , 5.845 MILLION OZ STANDING IN JANUARY. 2.955 MILLION OZ STANDING IN FEBRUARY AND NOW 26.360 MILLION OZ FOR MARCH.

 

 

RESULT: A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN SILVER OI AT THE COMEX DESPITE THE 7 CENT LOSS IN PRICING THAT SILVER UNDERTOOK IN PRICING// YESTERDAY.BUT WE ALSO HAD A GOOD SIZED 1383 EFP’S ISSUED TRANSFERRING COMEX LONGS OVER TO LONDON. TOGETHER WITH THE STRONG  SIZED AMOUNT OF SILVER OUNCES STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER, DEMAND FOR PHYSICAL SILVER CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS WE WITNESS SEVERE BACKWARDATION IN SILVER IN LONDON.

BOTH THE SILVER COMEX AND THE GOLD COMEX ARE IN STRESS AS THE BANKERS SCOUR THE BOWELS OF THE EXCHANGE FOR METAL

 

 

(report Harvey)

.

2.a) The Shanghai and London gold fix report

(Harvey)

2 b) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe, Goldcore

(Mark O’Byrne/zerohedge

and in NY: Bloomberg

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 33.32 POINTS OR 1.10% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 417.57 POINTS OR 1.56%  /The Nikkei closed UP 378.80 POINTS OR 1/79%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .04%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.7132 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 57.26 dollars per barrel for WTI and 67.09 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED EXCEPT LONDON 

ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.7132 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7194: / TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

 

 

 

 

3A/NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

 

 

 

i)North Korea/

 

 

 

b) REPORT ON JAPAN

 

 

 

3 C/  CHINA

i)China/

CHINA’S Minsky moment is approaching rapidly.  China has a huge total debt/GDP of 300% as of 2017.  China’s debt of 40 trillion dollars compares to a GDP of 13 trillion dollars.  We reported to you last week that Kyle Bass’s Hyman capital discovered that there was an additional 6 billion dollars worth of hidden shadow banking/local government debt.  Thus the true debt per GDP is 340% and much of this local debt is coming due with declining revenues.  China is rapidly approaching its Minsky Moment…

(courtesy zerohedge)

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

i)UK/Monday night

The pound rallies as supposedly May secures a critical Brexit concession from the EU.  However we are not sure that this is true

(zerohedge)

 

ii)TUESDAY MORNING:

the pound tumbles as the UK attorney General trashes May’s last minute deal as a phony
( zerohedge)

iii)Italy/China/USA

interesting: the uSA is now very worried about the coziness of Italy to China especially its China Belt and Road Initiative  (BRI).  Of course if Italy leaves the European Monetary Union, that would be the death blow to the Euro

(courtesy zerohedge)

iv)Germany/Deutsche bank/Commerz Bank
Deutsche bank’s stock is down this morning after a supervisory board member signaled strong internal resistance to the rescue attempt
( zerohedge)

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

This does not look good:  Iran’s Rouhani makes his first ever trip to Iraq and states that he will bypass the unjust uSA sanctions. Iran wants to build a land bridge from Iran straight to Lebanon.
( zerohedge)

 

6. GLOBAL ISSUES

 

Australia and Singapore ground the Boeing 737 Max 8 as there is doubt about its safety

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

 

 

7. OIL ISSUES

 

 

 

 

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES

 

 

i)VENEZUELA/

Escalation seems to be the name of the game as the USA removes its Venezuela’s embassy staff

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

 

 

9. PHYSICAL MARKETS

I have been pointing out the scam at both the GLD and SLV for years.  Basically GLD and SLV are shorted but the corresponding buy side does not see precious metals enter their vaults.  In essence we witness a double counting and both of these vehicles do not have the proper amount of metal per shares outstanding.

( Craig Hemke/Sprott/GATA)

ii)Ed Steer’s digest letter is posted in the clear

(courtesy Ed Steer/GATA)

10. USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver)

 

 

MARKET TRADING

/

 

 

ii)Market data

USA consumer price growth is the slowest in 2 1/2 years.  Not a good sign

( zero hedge)

ii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

 

iv)SWAMP STORIES

i)here we go again:  Now we witness New York’s Attorney General open a civil probe into Trump’s dealings with Deutsche bank and also his failed attempt to buy the Buffalo Bills

( zerohedge)

ii)Rahm Emanuel, the Democrat mayor of Chicago warns democrats that socialist ideals will not win the White House in 2020
( Sara Carter)

 

 

 

E)SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT

 

end

 

 

 

Let us head over to the comex:

 

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN ROSE BY STRONG  SIZED 5180 CONTRACTS UP TO A LEVEL OF 518,975 DESPITE THE LOSS IN THE PRICE OF GOLD ($8.00) IN YESTERDAY’S // COMEX TRADING).

WE ARE NOW IN THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH..  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED COMEX TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS., THAT IS 4688 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED:

FOR MARCH:  0. FOR APRIL 4688, FOR JUNE: 0 CONTRACTS AND FINALLY DECEMBER: 0 AND  ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE:  4688 CONTRACTS.

THE OBLIGATION STILL RESTS WITH THE BANKERS ON THESE TRANSFERS. ALSO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS NO DOUBT A HUGE DELAY IN THE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S AND IT PROBABLY TAKES AT LEAST  48 HRS AFTER LONGS GIVE UP THEIR COMEX CONTRACTS FOR THEM TO RECEIVE THEIR EFP’S AS THEY ARE NEGOTIATING THIS CONTRACT WITH THE BANKS FOR A FIAT BONUS PLUS THEIR TRANSFER TO A LONDON BASED FORWARD.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: 9,868 TOTAL CONTRACTS IN THAT 4688 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS FORWARDS TO LONDON AND WE GAINED A STRONG SIZED 5180 COMEX CONTRACTS.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES ONLY::9868 contracts OR 986,800 OZ OR 30.69 TONNES.

 

We are now in the NON active contract month of MARCH and here the open interest stands at 46 contracts  for a loss of 0 contracts.We had 8 notices served upon yesterday so we AGAIN GAINED  8 contracts or AN ADDITIONAL 800 oz will stand at the comex as these guys refused to morph into London based forwards as well as negating a fiat bonus for their effort.

 

 

 

The next non active delivery month after  March is the  active delivery month is April and here the OI lost by 11,288 contracts down to 279,848 contracts. The non active month of May picked up 49 contracts for a total of 271 open interest.  After May, the next active delivery month is June and here the OI stands at 156,165 having gained 12,721 contracts.

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NOTICES FILED:

WE HAD 8 NOTICES FILED TODAY AT THE COMEX FOR 800 OZ. (0.0249 tonnes)

 

 

 

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And now for the wild silver comex results.

Total COMEX silver OI FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 648 CONTRACTS FROM 191,346 DOWN TO 190,698(AND FURTHER FROM THE NEW RECORD OI FOR SILVER SET ON AUGUST 22.2018.  THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET APRIL 9.2018/ 243,411 CONTRACTS) AND TODAY’S SMALL OI COMEX LOSS  OCCURRED WITH A 7 CENT LOSS IN PRICING.//YESTERDAY 

 

 

WE ARE NOW INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF MARCH AND THE  OPEN INTEREST IN THIS FRONT MONTH RESTS AT 414 HAVING GAINED 4 CONTRACTS.

WE HAD 10 NOTICES FILED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 14 CONTRACTS OR 70,000 ADDITIONAL OZ WILL STAND AT THE SILVER COMEX AS THESE GUYS REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS NEGATING A FIAT BONUS. WE HAVE BEEN WITNESSING QUEUE JUMPING IN SILVER FOR OVER 3 YEARS IN THAT THE TOTAL OZ STANDING INCREASES FROM FIRST DAY NOTICE STANDING.

TODAY THE  SILVER COMEX IS IN STRESS.!! WE HAVE HAD FOR THE 8TH CONSECUTIVE DAY QUEUE JUMPING AND THUS ANOTHER INCREASE IN THE AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING AT THE COMEX.

 

 

 

 

AFTER MARCH, WE HAVE THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF APRIL.  HERE: APRIL RISES TO 811 CONTRACTS FOR A GAIN OF 7 CONTRACTS.  AFTER APRIL, THE NEXT BIG ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IS MAY AND HERE THE OI FELL BY 904 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 138,898 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE WITNESSED A MASSIVE SHORT COVERING AT THE BANKS WITH RESPECT TO SILVER COUPLED WITH CONTINUE QUEUE JUMPING……SOMETHING IS SCARING THEM TO DEATH!!!

 

 

 

ON A NET BASIS WE GAINED A SMALL 735 SILVER OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AS WE OBTAINED A 648 CONTRACT LOSS AT THE COMEX COMBINING WITH THE ADDITION OF 1383 OI CONTRACTS NAVIGATING OVER TO LONDON.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES:  735 CONTRACTS...AND ALL OF THIS   DEMAND OCCURRED WITH A 7 CENT LOSS IN PRICING// YESTERDAY???. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TODAY’S NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED:

 

We, today, had 14 notice(s) filed for 70,000 OZ for the MARCH, 2019 COMEX contract for silver

 

 

Trading Volumes on the COMEX TODAY:  217,568  CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED COMEX VOL. FOR YESTERDAY:  247,166  contracts

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Initial standings for  MAR/GOLD

MAR 12 /2019.

Gold Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz nil oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz
147,228.368
oz
HSBC
sent to JPMorgan
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory in oz nil

oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz  

 

 

 

 

147,228,368

 

oz

JPMorgan

 

arrived from HSBC

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No of oz served (contracts) today
8 notice(s)
 800 OZ
(0.02488 TONNES)
No of oz to be served (notices)
38 contracts
(3800 oz)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
335 notices
32700 OZ
1.0419 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month xxx oz

 

we had 0 dealer entries:

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had 1 kilobar entries

 

we had 1 deposit into the customer account

i) Into JPMorgan:  147,228.368 oz

ii) Into everybody else:  nil

total gold deposits: 147,228.368 oz

and this arrived from HSBC

no gold arrives from outside.

we had 1 gold withdrawals from the customer account:

i) out of HSBC: 147,228.368  oz

 

 

 

total gold withdrawals;  147,228.368 oz

thus zero gold arrives and zero gold leaves the comex/

 

we had 0  adjustments…

FOR THE MAR 2019 CONTRACT MONTH)

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from JPMorgan dealer account and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equates to 8 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 4 notice(s) was (were) stopped/ Received) by j.P.Morgan customer account and 0 notices by the squid  (Goldman Sachs)

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for the MARCH/2019. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (335) x 100 oz , to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAR. (46 contract) minus the number of notices served upon today (8 x 100 oz per contract) equals 37,500 OZ OR 1.1664 TONNES) the number of ounces standing in this active month of MARCH

Thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the MAR/2019 contract month:

No of notices served (335 x 100 oz)  + {46)OI for the front month minus the number of notices served upon today (8 x 100 oz )which equals 37,500 oz standing OR 1.1664 TONNES in this active delivery month of MARCH.

We GAINED 8 contracts or an additional 800 oz WILL  STAND AT THE COMEX AS THEY REFUSED TO MORPH INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS AS WELL AS NEGATING TO ACCEPT A FIAT BONUS.

 

HOWEVER, THE GOLD COMEX (AND SILVER COMEX) ARE NOW IN STRESS AS THE CROOKS ARE DESPERATE TO FIND PHYSICAL METAL.

SURPRISINGLY NO GOLD HAS BEEN ENTERING THE COMEX VAULTS AND WE HAVE WITNESSED THIS FOR THE PAST YEAR!!  WE HAVE ONLY 11.388 TONNES OF REGISTERED (  GOLD OFFERED FOR SALE)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total registered or dealer gold:  366,127.915 oz or  11.388 tonnes
total registered and eligible (customer) gold;   8,035,858.276 oz 249.94 tonnes

FOR COMPARISON

MARCH 2018 VS MARCH 2019 CONTRACTS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ON FIRST DAY NOTICE MARCH 1/2018: TOTAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR DELIVERY: 2.1524 TONNES

THE FINAL AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE: MARCH 31/2018:  1.6114 TONNES AS THE REST MORPHED INTO LONDON BASED FORWARDS.

IN THE LAST 29 MONTHS 105 NET TONNES HAS LEFT THE COMEX.

 

THE GOLD COMEX IS NOW IN STRESS AS
1. GOLD IS LEAVING THE COMEX
2. GOLD IS LEAVING THE REGISTERED CATEGORY OF THE COMEX.

end

And now for silver

AND NOW THE  DELIVERY MONTH

MAR INITIAL standings/SILVER

MAR 12 2019
Silver Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
394,943.444 oz
brinks
CNT
HSBC

 

 

Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,180,058.300
oz
CNT
JPM
Scotia
No of oz served today (contracts)
14
CONTRACT(S)
70,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
400 contracts
2,000,000 oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) 4872 contracts

(24,360,000 oz)

Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

we had 0 inventory movement at the dealer side of things

 

 

total dealer deposits: nil  oz

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

we had  3 deposits into the customer account

 

i) Into JPMorgan:  34,819.940  oz

 

*** JPMorgan for most of 2017 and in 2018 has adding to its inventory almost every single day.

JPMorgan now has 147.825 million oz of  total silver inventory or 49.12% of all official comex silver. (147 million/300.8 million)

 

i) Into CNT:: 600,586.820 oz

iii) Into Scotia: 544,651.540 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total customer deposits today: 1,180,058.380    oz

 

we had 3 withdrawals out of the customer account:

i) Out of CNT:  29,449.054  oz

ii) out of  Brinks:  310,545.600 oz

iii) Out of HSBC: 54,998.79 oz

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

total withdrawals: 394,983.444    oz

 

we had 1 adjustment

i) out of CNT:

14,383.500 oz was adjusted out of the customer CNT and this landed into the dealer account of CNT

 

total dealer silver:  94.718 million

total dealer + customer silver:  300.869 million oz

 

 

 

 

The total number of notices filed today for the MARCH 2019. contract month is represented by 14 contract(s) FOR  70,000  oz

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in MAR, we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 4872 x 5,000 oz = 24,360,000 oz to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of MAR. (414) and the number of notices served upon today (14 x 5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

.

Thus the INITIAL standings for silver for the MAR/2019 contract month: 4872(notices served so far)x 5000 oz + OI for front month of MAR( 414) -number of notices served upon today (14)x 5000 oz equals 26,360,000 oz of silver standing for the MAR contract month.  This is a strong number of oz standing for an off delivery month.

We gained  14 contracts or an additional 70,000 oz will stand as bankers queue jumped in order to receive badly needed physical metal. The silver comex is in deep stress as this is the 8TH day in a row of a huge gain in silver oz standing. WE ALSO WITNESSED HUGE SHORT COVERING BY THE BANKERS AS THEY SEEM TO BE SCARED ABOUT SOMETHING!1

 

 

 

 

 

ON MARCH 1.2018 WE HAD 24.670 MILLION OZ OF SILVER STAND FOR DELIVERY. BY THE CONCLUSION OF THE DELIVERY MONTH, 27.190 MILLION OZ STOOD AS QUEUE JUMPING IN THE SILVER COMEX ARENA HAD BEEN THE NORM FOR QUITE A WHILE.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

TODAY’S SILVER VOLUME:  53,144 CONTRACTS

 

 

CONFIRMED VOLUME FOR YESTERDAY: 52,728 CONTRACTS… 

 

 

 

 

YESTERDAY’S CONFIRMED VOLUME OF 52,728 CONTRACTS EQUATES to 263 million OZ  37.6% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF SILVER

COMMODITY LAW SUGGESTS THAT OPEN INTEREST SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN 3% OF ANNUAL GLOBAL PRODUCTION. THE CROOKS ARE SUPPLYING MASSIVE PAPER TRYING TO KEEP SILVER IN CHECK.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price at that day at $18.42
The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44

end

NPV for Sprott 

1. Sprott silver fund (PSLV): NAV RISES TO -2.96% (MAR12/2019)
2. Sprott gold fund (PHYS): premium to NAV FALLS TO -1.05% to NAV (MAR12/2019 )
Note: Sprott silver trust back into NEGATIVE territory at -2.96%-/Sprott physical gold trust is back into NEGATIVE/

(courtesy Sprott/GATA)

3.SPROTT CEF.A FUND (FORMERLY CENTRAL FUND OF CANADA):

NAV 13.15/TRADING 12.80/DISCOUNT 2.64

END

And now the Gold inventory at the GLD/

MARCH 12/WITH GOLD UP $7.00: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.94 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 769.53 TONNES

MARCH 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $8.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 766.59 TONNES

MARCH 8/WITH GOLD UP $13.40: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 766.59 TONNES

MARCH 7/WITH GOLD DOWN $1.40 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 766.59 TONNES

MARCH 6/WITH GOLD UP $3.30 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 766.59 TONNES

MARCH 5/WITH GOLD DOWN ONLY $1.70: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 5.87 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY AND THIS GOLD HAS BEEN USED IN THE WHACKING PROCESS YESTERDAY AND TODAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 766.59 TONNES

MARCH 4/WITH GOLD ANOTHER $12.50 TODAY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 11.76 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 772.46 TONNES

MAR 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $16.90 TODAY; A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.11 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 784.22 TONNES

FEB 28/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.80: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 788.33

FEB 27/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.80: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY//INVENTORY RESTS AT 788.33 TONNES

FEB 26  WITH GOLD DOWN $1.10: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.18 TONNES FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 788.33

FEB 25/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.10: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 789.51 TONNES

 

FEB 22/WITH GOLD UP $5.15 A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.99 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 789.51 TONNES

FEB 21/WITH GOLD DOWN $19.50/ A SURPRISE GAIN (DEPOSIT) OF 2.05 TONNES INTO THE GLD INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 794.50 TONNES

FEB 20/WITH GOLD UP $3.10 TODAY: SURPRISINGLY NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY/GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 792.45 TONNES

FEB 19/WITH GOLD UP $22.95/ TWO TRANSACTIONS: A HUGE 3.82 TONNES OF GOLD WITHDRAWAL FROM THE GLD THIS MORNING AND THEN  0.58 TONNES THIS AFTERNOON///INVENTORY RESTS AT 792,45 TONNES. FROM FEB 1/2019 UNTIL TODAY, GOLD IS UP $24.25 AND YET GOLD WITHDRAWALS ARE A HUGE 31.42 TONNES/THIS IS CRIMINAL!!

FEB 15/WITH GOLD UP $8.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 796.85 TONNES

FEB 14//WITH GOLD DOWN $1.10: WE HAD ANOTHER PAPER RAID (WITHDRAWAL) OF 2.04 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 796.85 TONNES/

FEB 13:/WITH GOLD UP $1.40 TODAY: ANOTHER PAPER RAID BY OUR CROOKED BANKERS AS THEY WITHDREW ANOTHER 2.23 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD. INVENTORY RESTS AT 798.89 TONNES

FEB 12: WITH GOLD UP $2.20 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 802.12 TONNES

FEB 11/WITH GOLD DOWN $6.25 TODAY: ANOTHER PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES OF GOLD AND THIS GOLD WAS USED TO WHACK OUR PRECIOUS METAL TODAY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 802.12 TONNES

FEB 8/WITH GOLD UP $4.00/THE CROOKS WITHDREW ANOTHER HUGE 6.59 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD AND THIS GOLD WAS USED TO CONTAIN THE PRICE OF GOLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 803.29 TONNES

FEB 7/WITH GOLD UP 35 CENTS/ANOTHER PAPER GOLD WITHDRAWAL OF 2.06 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 809.76 TONNES

FEB 6/WITH GOLD DOWN $4.85 TODAY: A STRONG PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.37 TONNES FROM THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 811.82 TONNES

FEB 5/WITH GOLD UP $.30 TODAY: A HUGE PAPER WITHDRAWAL OF 4.11 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 813.29 TONNES

FEB 4/WITH GOLD DOWN $2.65: TWO TRANSACTIONS: i)A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 8.37 TONNES OF PAPER GOLD WAS REMOVED FROM THE GLD AND THEN ii) a A STRONG DEPOSIT OF 2.00 TONNES/INVENTORY RESTS AT 817.40 TONNES

FEB 1/WITH GOLD DOWN $3.00 TODAY: NO CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/INVENTORY RESTS AT 823.87 TONNES

 

 

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

MAR 12/2019/ Inventory rests tonight at 769.53 tonnes

*IN LAST 557 TRADING DAYS: 165.52 NET TONNES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GLD
*LAST 457 TRADING DAYS: A NET 1.30 TONNES HAVE NOW BEEN ADDED INTO THE GLD INVENTORY.

 

end

 

Now the SLV Inventory/

MARCH 12/WITH SILVER UP 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/INVENTORY AT THE SLV RESTS AT 309.676 MILLION OZ////

MARCH 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 516,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.676 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 8/WITH SILVER UP 34 CENTS: STRANGE!! TWO TRANSACTIONS!!  IN THE MORNING A WITHDRAWAL OF 703,000 OZ FROM THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307,800 OZ/ IN THE AFTERNOON: A DEPOSIT OF 1.56 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY FINALLY RESTS AT 309.160 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.503 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.503 MILLION OZ

MARCH 5/WITH SILVER UP ONE CENT: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.503 MILLION OZ///

MARCH 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV; A WITHDRAWAL OF 871,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV///INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.503 MILLION OZ/

MARCH 1/ WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS/NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY

FEB 28/WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.374

FEB 27/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS//A  SMALL CHANGE IN INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 610,000 OZ//SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.374 MILLION OZ/

FEB 26/WITH SILVER DOWN ONE CENT; NO CHANGE IN INVENTORY/RESTS AT 309.984

FEB 25./WITH SILVER DOWN 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.984 MILLION OZ/

FEB 22/WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.984 MILLION OZ///

FEB 21/WITH SILVER DOWN 37 CENTS: SURPRISINGLY A DEPOSIT OF 1.688 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INVENTORY/ INTO THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.984 MILLION OZ///

FEB 20/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS AND ON A TEAR: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.296 MILLION OZ/

FEB 19/WITH SILVER UIP 25 CENTS TODAY: A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 938,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.296 MILLION OZ/

FEB 15/WITH SILVER UP 19 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.358 MILLION OZ/

FEB 14/WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS: A DEPOSIT OF 423,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.358 MILLION OZ

FEB 13/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: ANOTHER BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 938,000 OZ FROM THE SLV./INVENTORY RESTS AT 306.935 MILLION OZ/

FEB 12 WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS TODAY:  NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT TH SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.873 MILLION OZ/

FEB 11/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY:A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.126 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV INVENTORY/INVENTORY RESTS AT 307.873 MILLION OZ/

FEB 8/WITH SILVER UP 11 CENTS: ANOTHER WITHDRAWAL OF 657,000 OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 308.999  MILLION OZ/

FEB 7/WITH SILVER DOWN 1 CENT TODAY: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.656 MILLION OZ/

FEB 6/WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS TODAY; A BIG CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 938,000  OZ/INVENTORY RESTS AT 309.656 MILLION OZ/

FEB 5/WITH SILVER DOWN 3 CENTS; NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.594 MILLION OZ.

FEB 4/WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS: A SMALL CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 129,000 OZ TO PAY FOR FEES/.INVENTORY RESTS AT 310.594 MILLION OZ/

FEB 1/WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS: NO CHANGE IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY  RESTS AT 310.723 MILLION OZ/

 

MAR 12/2019:

 

Inventory 309.676 MILLION OZ

LIBOR SCHEDULE AND GOFO RATES:

 

 

THE RISE IN LIBOR IS CREATING A SCARCITY OF DOLLARS BECAUSE FOREIGN EXCHANGE SWAPS (COSTS) ARE SIMPLY PROHIBITIVE

YOUR DATA…..

6 Month MM GOFO 2.17/ and libor 6 month duration 2.68

Indicative gold forward offer rate for a 6 month duration/calculation:

G0LD LENDING RATE: + .51

 

 

XXXXXXXX

12 Month MM GOFO
+ 2.47%

LIBOR FOR 12 MONTH DURATION: 2.87

GOFO = LIBOR – GOLD LENDING RATE

GOLD LENDING RATE  = +.40

end

 

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER STORIES

end
i) GOLDCORE BLOG/Mark O’Byrne

Invest In Gold Or Bitcoin – Which Is The True Store Of Value?

Gold Versus Bitcoin – Which Is The True Store Of Value?

by Adam Strauss via Forbes

As the fiscal position of the United States continues to deteriorate at the same time that foreign countries are scaling back on their purchases of U.S. Treasuries, many investors are rightly worried about where they can hide from a potential decline in the value of the dollar and are looking to invest in a reliable “store of value.”

A store of value is an asset which can be stored and reliably retrieved at a later time with its purchasing power intact. Some investors seeking this protection prefer gold, and some prefer bitcoin. Some even prefer both gold and bitcoin.

Unlike the stock market, bonds, and real estate, gold and bitcoin share several features in common. Neither generates any income. Both are perceived to exist in limited supply. Both are purchased by investors who are worried about depreciating fiat currencies. But as a store of value, gold is much more likely to be the superior option over the next five to ten years for the following reasons:

Properties

Gold is tangible, transportable, and can be purchased or sold anonymously. As a precious metal, gold has unique properties due to its rarity, its durability, its fungibility, its beauty, its resistance to corrosion, its divisibility, and its malleability.

Gold is easy to hide and store in any number of places, and it is a highly liquid asset. While the threat of gold theft certainly is a risk, losing one’s gold is difficult, and losing one’s gold to a hacker is impossible. Unlike gold, bitcoin is not tangible, and, for that reason, it can be sent across the world seamlessly and inexpensively. It can be purchased or sold anonymously through decentralized transactions that require no intermediary.

Like gold, bitcoin is also fungible and divisible. However, it is possible to lose one’s bitcoin by losing the private key of a bitcoin storage address. Bitcoin can also be stolen by hackers, particularly if bitcoin is stored in an exchange. Indeed, epic stories exist where bitcoin holders have lost millions of dollars worth of bitcoin due to ineptitude or hackers or both.  Just recently, Gerald Cotten, CEO of QuadrigaCX, died with the passwords of 115,000 investors worth an estimated $140 million in cryptocurrencies.

Limited Supply

Gold’s supply is limited, supporting its role as a store of value. The worldwide supply of gold increases by about 1.5% each year. Gold’s unique properties, mentioned above, make gold a superior store of value compared to other precious metals such as silver, palladium, and platinum.

Gold has emerged as the clear winner store of value after thousands of years of competition against other commodity currencies. A futures market for gold exists, which increases the supply of paper gold, but futures can be settled with physical gold, limiting the extent to which the futures market can influence the physical gold price over the long-term. Bitcoin’s supply increases are also limited, in theory, but bitcoin can be “forked” by dissatisfied bitcoin developers. A fork is a point of divergence in the blockchain, and at its most extreme can lead to a permanent split of one currency into two.

Thus far, bitcoin has begotten multiple children including bitcoin cash and bitcoin gold, and other forks could take place in the future. Besides the possibility of a series of future forks for bitcoin itself, a seemingly endless supply of new cryptocurrencies has been launched in the last couple of years, any one of which could eventually replace bitcoin as investors’ favorite cryptocurrency.

Unlike gold, bitcoin has not endured thousands of years of competition against other cryptocurrencies. Finally, a cash-settled futures market for bitcoin has been launched, which means that a limitless supply of fiat bitcoin can be created by futures market participants.

History and Stability

Gold has been used as a store of value for thousands of years. Since Roman times, the purchasing power of gold has been stable enough that people say an ounce of gold can always be used to purchase a good suit.

While one might argue about the definition of what a “good suit” is, the idea behind this adage is that the purchasing power of gold has remained constant over a long period. Barring discovery of an enormous deposit on Mars, gold’s purchasing power should not change significantly. Meanwhile, bitcoin investors are, for the most part, investing in technological disruption.

Bitcoin investors are hoping for fantastic profits, expecting that bitcoin will supplant gold and the U.S. dollar as the world’s pre-eminent monetary asset. If bitcoin bulls are correct, bitcoin will indeed generate fantastic returns. However, this investment thesis makes bitcoin a speculative asset rather than a store of value, which is why bitcoin’s price went up in price by 1,331% in 2017 only to go down by 72% during 2018. While bitcoin might be a profitable investment in the long-term, bitcoin’s price is just too volatile to reliably serve as a store of value.

OfficialSupport

Central banks and governments across the world own gold as a reserve asset. Moreover, since the Financial Crisis, central banks and governments have been buying more gold in order to diversify their currency reserves and reduce their reliance upon the U.S. dollar as a reserve asset.

Central bank gold purchasing has accelerated recently, which suggests that the use of gold as a settlement asset among countries is likely to increase in coming years. If central banks are buying gold because they believe gold can serve as a store of value, why should investors act differently?

Meanwhile, central banks and governments do not own any bitcoins or any other decentralized cryptocurrency. Indeed, the bitcoin bull case assumes that bitcoin usage will destroy central banks and the banking system. Because bitcoin operates perfectly well without any central authority, even the IMF has acknowledged that crypto assets represent a potential threat to central bank money. In response, central banks have been considering the introduction of central bank-issued cryptocurrencies, such as FedCoin. It seems impossible that central banks would buy or hold a cryptocurrency that central banks would not issue and control themselves.

While bitcoin may be an attractive opportunity for some investors, it should not be considered a reliable store of value in your portfolio.  With bitcoin, you should only invest what you are prepared to lose if the bitcoin price should go to zero. If bitcoin does not succeed in supplanting gold as a store of value, bitcoin is likely to have little to no value whatsoever. This warning alone prevents bitcoin from being considered a store of value.

Meanwhile, gold does not appear to be going anywhere right now except into the vaults of foreign central banks. With the U.S. dollar likely to depreciate in the coming five to ten years, the dollar-denominated gold price would likely appreciate accordingly.

For multiple reasons, gold deserves a place as a reliable and liquid store of value in most people’s investment portfolio.

Courtesy of Forbes

 

 

News and Commentary

Gold finishes lower after failed attempt to reach the key $1,300 mark (MarketWatch.com)

May Dashes for Last-Minute Talks to Save Her Deal: Brexit Update (Bloomberg.com)

Barrick Gold ends hostile Newmont bid, signs Nevada joint venture (MarketWatch.com)

Stocks rally, but Dow feels Boeing-related pressure (MarketWatch.com)

Indian central bank to become 10th largest holder of gold worldwide (added 6.5 tons in Jan.) (Business-Standard.com)

World Choking On Debt – Buy Gold – Catherine Austin Fitts (Youtube.com)

Irish Public Servant Robert Pye Tried to Save Ireland From Financial Catastrophe (Youtube.com)

Gold Stopped Cold at $1,300 Spot on Friday – Steer (GoldSeek.com)

Did BIS swap gold out of GLD for recent price smash? – Hemke (Gata.org)

China’s Gold-Buying Spree Extends To Third Month (ZeroHedge.com)

Gold Prices (LBMA PM)

11 Mar: USD 1,296.35, GBP 998.32 & EUR 1,153.49 per ounce
08 Mar: USD 1,294.10, GBP 989.34 & EUR 1,153.95 per ounce
07 Mar: USD 1,285.30, GBP 921.20 & EUR 1,144.17 per ounce
06 Mar: USD 1,285.55, GBP 978.82 & EUR 1,136.82 per ounce
05 Mar: USD 1,285.00, GBP 975.19 & EUR 1,134.78 per ounce
04 Mar: USD 1,287.45, GBP 972.93 & EUR 1,135.14 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

11 Mar: USD 15.29, GBP 11.74 & EUR 13.60 per ounce
08 Mar: USD 15.11, GBP 11.56 & EUR 13.48 per ounce
07 Mar: USD 15.07, GBP 11.47 & EUR 13.33 per ounce
06 Mar: USD 15.09, GBP 11.49 & EUR 13.36 per ounce
05 Mar: USD 15.11, GBP 11.47 & EUR 13.33 per ounce
04 Mar: USD 15.16, GBP 11.50 & EUR 13.38 per ounce

Recent Market Updates

– Silver Bullion Is The Portfolio Insurance To Buy Now
– EU Isn’t Ready for the Next Recession
–  JPMorgan Is Bullish on Gold as a Hedge Against Rising Inflation
– Gold – It Might Be Different This Time
– Euromillions Winners To Invest In Gold In 2019?
– Gold Still on a Long Term Track to Reach $2,000 An Ounce
– “Gold Is A Global Thermometer Of Risk” – CEO Q+A: Stephen Flood, GoldCore
– U.S. Mint Suspends Silver Bullion Coin Sales After Sales Double In February

Mark O’Byrne
Executive Director

GATA STORIES WITH RESPECT TO GOLD/PRECIOUS METALS.

+

Craig Hemke at Sprott Money: Did BIS swap gold out of GLD for recent price smash?

 Section: 

5:21p ET Monday, March 11, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Drawing on the work of Robert Lambourne, GATA’s consultant on the Bank for International Settlements, the TF Metals Report’s Craig Hemke notes at Sprott Money today that the recent monthly gold swapping reported by the Bank for International Settlements corresponds almost precisely with the simultaneous draining of gold inventory from the exchange-traded fund GLD.

Lambourne reported last week that about 56 tonnes of gold swaps were placed by the BIS in February

http://www.gata.org/node/18923

— and Hemke notes today that 57 tonnes of gold were removed from GLD over roughly the same period even as the gold price was rising.

… 

Of course GATA’s analysts long have expressed suspicion that GLD and the silver exchange-traded fund SLV, both effectively controlled by bullion banks HSBC and JPMorganChase, intimate agents of central banks, were created specifically to gather the gold of retail and institutional investors so it could be turned against their objective of higher prices.

Hemke asks: “Is this possible BIS-GLD connection just another example of bank collusion or is it simply a coincidence of numbers?”

Most likely that will have to remain a question, since the BIS refuses to account for its surreptitious trading in the gold market on behalf of its central bank members:

http://gata.org/node/17793

Of course central banks themselves are as unaccountable as they can be on this point. Indeed, the March 1999 secret report of the staff of the International Monetary Fund confirmed that central banks conceal their gold swaps and leases to facilitate their surreptitious interventions in the gold and currency markets:

http://www.gata.org/node/12016

Hemke concludes, as GATA long has concluded, that investors in the monetary metals should stay away from these particular ETFs, since they probably don’t have their investors’ interest at heart.

Hemke’s analysis is headlined “The BIS and the GLD” and it’s posted at Sprott Money here:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/the-bis-and-the-gld-craig-hemke-11-0320…

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

Join GATA here:

Mining Investment Asia
Marina Bay Sands Conference and Exhibition Center
Singapore
Tuesday-Thursday, March 26-28

https://www.mininginvestmentasia.com/

Mines and Money Asia
Hong Kong Conference and Exhibition Center
Wan Chai, Hong Kong
Tuesday-Thursday, April 2-4

https://asia.minesandmoney.com/

* * *

Help keep GATA going:

GATA is a civil rights and educational organization based in the United States and tax-exempt under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code. Its e-mail dispatches are free, and you can subscribe at:

http://www.gata.org

To contribute to GATA, please visit:

http://www.gata.org/node/16

END

Ed Steer’s digest letter is posted in the clear

(courtesy Ed Steer/GATA)

Ed Steer’s Gold & Silver Digest letter posted in the clear at GoldSeek

 Section: 

7:30p ET Monday, March 11, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

GATA board member Ed Steer’s Gold & Silver Digest letter for Saturday, headlined “Gold Stopped Cold at $1,300 Spot on Friday,” has been posted in the clear at GoldSeek here:

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1552342271.php

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Barrick, Newmont ‘tear down fences’ to create biggest gold producer yet

Bitter takeover battle ends in agreement to combine the two companies’ mining operations in Nevada

The Canadian Press

March 11, 2019

12:25 PM EDT

Why this portfolio manager sees the return of gold’s glory days — and it’s not just megamerger mania

Barrick’s new CEO on a mission to restore glory to miner’s brand — and he’s not afraid to cut to get there

Bigger is looking better for gold miners in wake of megamergers

TORONTO — Barrick Gold Corp. dropped its hostile takeover offer for Newmont Mining Corp. on Monday in favour of a friendly deal to create a joint-venture that will combine the two companies’ mining operations in Nevada.

They say the Nevada complex will be the world’s largest gold producer, based on 2018 production of 4.1 million ounces.

The two big gold miners have operated independently in Nevada for decades, but previously had been unable on agree on a way to co-operate.

Our joint venture will allow us to tear down the fences and operate our assets as one mining complex.

“We view this as a benefit — not only to our collective shareholders, but to our employees, local stakeholders and Nevada as a whole,” Barrick chief executive Mark Bristow told a conference call with financial analysts.

“Our joint venture will allow us to tear down the fences and operate our assets as one mining complex, making the best use of our combined infrastructure.”

Newmont CEO Gary Goldberg, who plans to retire later this year, said Barrick and Newmont have been operating as good neighbours in Nevada and have worked together successfully on a smaller joint venture at Turquoise Ridge.

“This agreement also paves the way for both Newmont and Barrick to unlock more value than either of us could create alone,” Goldberg said.

Why Barrick wants to merge with Newmont: Gold is harder to find and mining it is more expensive

Agnico Eagle CEO wary of ‘bigger is better’ mergers

For Newmont, it will be able to continue with a proposed friendly takeover of Vancouver-based Goldcorp Inc., which said it fully supports the joint venture.

Under the deal, Barrick will be the operator of the Nevada Complex and will hold a 61.5 per cent ownership stake in the joint venture, while Newmont will own 38.5 per cent.

Board representation will be based on ownership, while advisory committees will have equal representation.

The joint venture will include Barrick’s Goldstrike, Cortez, Turquoise Ridge, Goldrush mines and other assets as well as Newmont’s Carlin, Twin Creeks, Phoenix, Long Canyon, and Lone Tree mines.

The companies, which report in U.S. dollars, said the joint venture will allow them to capture an estimated $500 million in average annual pre-tax synergies in the first five full years of the combination.

Over a 20-year period, they estimate $4.7 billion of total savings with $2.8 billion attributable to Barrick and $1.8 billion attributable to Newmont.

The ambitions of the cost savings have, however, been questioned.

“This is above our more conservative published estimate,” said RBC Dominion Securities analyst Stephen Walker in a note.

RBC has estimated annual savings of US$340 million pre- tax, or US$250 million after tax, which it figures is currently worth about US$2.6 billion over 20 years.

Barrick had launched a takeover offer for Newmont in February but was rebuffed by the Denver-based company, which countered with its own proposal of a joint venture.

The establishment of the joint venture is subject to conditions, including regulatory approvals, and is expected to be completed in the coming months.

Barrick shares were up 45 cents at $17.81 and Goldcorp shares advanced 31 cents to $14.69 in Toronto, while Newmont shares decline less than a cent to US$33.71 in New York in the first minutes of trading Monday.

-END-



iii) Other Physical stories
Due to the criminal conviction of trader Edmonds, the USA prosecution is seeking to halt the civil lawsuit. I was misinformed: all discoveries in a civil suit are public and because of that, the prosecution gives the defendants the right to plead the 5th if their testimony incriminates them
(courtesy zerohedge/Chris Powell)

US seeks halt in civil lawsuit accusing JP Morgan of manipulating metals market, citing criminal case

  • The U.S. wants a federal judge to halt a civil lawsuit accusing J. P. Morgan of manipulating precious metals markets. The Justice Department cited an ongoing criminal case as its reason for the request.
  • A former J. P. Morgan trader pleaded guilty in Connecticut last month to manipulation charges.
  • In the guilty plea, the trader said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors.

A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

Amr Alfiky | Reuters
A sign of JP Morgan Chase Bank is seen in front of their headquarters tower in New York.

The Justice Department is asking a judge to put the brakes on a civil lawsuit against J. P. Morgan Chase, citing an ongoing probe into a “related criminal case” that involves alleged manipulation of precious metals markets.

The department wants a six-month postponement in the proceedings of the civil lawsuit, which was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders. The government also says it could ask for a longer delay in the case, according to a court filing on Monday.

The move comes days after Shak’s lawyer, David Kovel, sought permission to reopen questioning of two former J. P. Morgan traders and the bank’s current global head of base and precious metals trading.

Kovel, in making the request with the Manhattan federal judge in the civil case, cited last month’s guilty plea by one of those former traders, John Edmonds, in federal court in Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted making bogus bids on precious metals contracts while working at the bank from 2009 to 2015.

Neither J. P. Morgan Chase nor Kovel’s clients have opposed the Justice Department’s request.

In arguing for a delay, the Justice Department said Shak’s lawsuit is “related” to Edmonds’ criminal case and that Edmonds has “pleaded guilty and acknowledged his own participation in such conduct, as well as that of other traders.”

“Edmonds awaits sentencing, but the broader investigation is ongoing,” the Justice Department said. The U.S. wants to delay the civil case “to protect the integrity of its ongoing criminal investigation,” it said.

J. P. Morgan did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC. Kovel declined to comment.

Tuesday night, after this story first was published, Judge Paul Engelmayer ordered the federal prosecutors to explain in detail by Monday why postponing proceedings in the civil lawsuit would not harm those involved, and why reopening questioning “would be detrimental to the Government’s ongoing criminal investigation.”

Englemayer also wrote that he regards Edmonds’ guilty plea “as potentially highly consequential” to the civil case.

In his guilty plea, the 36-year-old Edmonds said he had learned to make bogus trade orders from senior traders at the bank and that he used the strategy hundreds of times with the knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. He admitted to working with “unnamed co-conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, according to the Justice Department.

Kovel wants to question Edmonds again as well as Michael Nowak, the bank’s global head of base and precious metal trading, and former J. P. Morgan Chase Managing Director Robert Gottlieb. The three had previously answered questions under oath in the civil case.

Kovel said in court filings that Nowak was the immediate supervisor of Edmonds, while Gottlieb was Edmonds’ mentor.

In his prior deposition, Edmonds said that Gottlieb sat only a “couple feet” away from him for about five years, and that he was “somebody [he] looked up to in the business,” who helped guide and train him.

Nowak is described by Edmonds as his direct supervisor, with whom he would sometimes discuss trading strategies. Nowak was also the person responsible for overseeing the performance and risk of Edmonds’ portfolio, according to the deposition.

Edmonds also stated in his prior deposition that he would enter precious metals trades for both Nowak and Gottlieb, among others.

The civil lawsuit claims Shak and his fellow plaintiffs lost tens of millions of dollars as a result of actions by J. P. Morgan’s traders.

A federal judge tells traders that they can combine cases (with the other 6 banks) as they accused JPMorgan of rigging the precious metals market
(courtesy CNBC)

Federal judge tells traders they can combine cases accusing JP Morgan of rigging metals market

  • Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.
  • Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

71671201

Spencer Platt | Getty Images

A group of traders from across the U.S. who allege that J. P. Morgan Chase manipulated precious metals markets for years are one step closer to bringing a class action suit against the nation’s largest bank.

Earlier this month, a federal judge said five separate lawsuits making similar allegations against the bank could be combined, potentially including thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market from Jan. 2009 through Dec. 2015.

Litigation in a separate civil case has been put on hold until at least May at the behest of the Justice Department, which is investigating a “related criminal case” that involves alleged market manipulation by precious metals traders at J. P. Morgan.

J. P. Morgan declined to comment on this story.

Judge John Koeltl of the Southern District of New York appointed the White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg as interim lead counsel for the proposed class action.

Vincent Briganti, a partner at the firm, filed the first suit seeking class action status in November on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a trader who alleges he suffered losses due to J.P. Morgan’s illegal trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

That was after the federal court in Connecticut unsealed a criminal plea agreement by John Edmonds, a former J.P. Morgan metals trader. In his guilty plea, Edmonds, who is 36-years old, admitted that he and other “unnamed co-conspirators” fraudulently manipulated the precious metals markets while they were employed at J. P. Morgan from 2009 to 2015.

Edmonds said he had learned the illegal trading tactics from senior traders, and then used them hundreds of times with the knowledge of and consent of his immediate supervisors.

Briganti’s lawsuit also names John Edmonds and a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank as defendants.

On Wednesday, the lawyers sent a letter to Judge Koeltl saying they were having difficulty locating Edmonds to serve him legal papers and requested a 30-day extension to do so, which the judge granted on Thursday. Briganti noted that they have been in contact with Edmonds’ attorney in the criminal case. Edmonds’ attorney and Briganti could not be reached for comment.

“We are hopeful that this extension will result in completing service on Mr. Edmonds without formal motion practice and a request for alternative means of service,” Briganti said in the letter.

The next step in the civil case is for the plaintiffs to file an amended class action complaint and set a schedule for defendants to respond.

In addition to the proposed class action, J. P. Morgan also faces a separate civil suit which also accuses the bank of rigging precious metals markets.

end

March 4.2019

Parker City News

JP Morgan faces potential class action lawsuit after guilty pleas by a former metals trader

Traders from across the U.S. are banding together to accuse J. P. Morgan Chase of manipulating precious metals markets for years.

At least six lawsuits, all making similar allegations against the nation‘s largest bank, have been filed in New York federal court in the past month, since federal prosecutors in Connecticut with a former J. P. Morgan Chase metals trader.

The cases could potentially include thousands of people who traded in the precious metals market. The White Plains, N.Y., law firm Lowey Dannenberg is asking the court to combine the cases and name it as the lead.

The law firm‘s commodities group is led by Vincent Briganti, the attorney who filed the first lawsuit on behalf of Dominick Cognata, a New York resident who alleges he suffered losses due to J. P. Morgan‘s trading conduct in the silver and gold futures and options markets.

A combined case, seeking class action status, would include anyone who purchased or sold futures contracts or an option on NYMEX platinum or palladium or COMEX silver or gold between at least Jan. 1, 2009, and Dec. 31, 2015. The lawyers believe that “at least hundreds, if not thousands” of traders would be eligible to join the case.

Named as defendants in all of the lawsuits are John Edmonds, a 36-year old former metals trader at J. P. Morgan, a group of yet-to-be-identified precious metals traders and the bank.

Edmonds, a New York resident, pleaded guilty in October to one count of conspiracy to defraud the market and manipulate prices of precious metals futures contracts and one count of commodities fraud. In the criminal plea, Edmonds admitted that he and other “unnamed co- conspirators” at J. P. Morgan, fraudulently manipulated precious metals markets from 2009 to 2015, the same time frame covered in the class action suits.

Briganti filed the initial class action on Nov. 7, just one day after the Justice Department unsealed Edmonds‘ plea in the U.S. District Court of Connecticut.

Edmonds admitted in his guilty plea that he deployed the illegal trading scheme hundreds of times with the direct knowledge and consent of his immediate supervisors. Plaintiffs say they have suffered economic injury, including monetary losses, as a direct result of actions by Edmonds and the other unnamed J. P. Morgan metals traders in the futures and options contracts.

One of the suits alleges that “the number of unlawful trades that JP Morgan traders executed in precious metals futures markets is at least in the thousands.”

J. P. Morgan declined to comment. Lowey Dannenberg did not respond to a request for comment by CNBC.

The Justice Department‘s criminal investigation is still ongoing and recently caused a separate related civil case to be put on hold for at least six months while the government continues its investigation. That civil lawsuit, which also accuses J. P. Morgan of rigging the precious metals market, was filed in 2015 by hedge fund manager Daniel Shak and two commodity traders.

After reviewing the details of the plea agreement, David Kovel, the attorney for Shak‘s suit, sought to re- interview Edmonds, along with two other current and former senior traders at the bank. However, the government argued that reopening questioning would be detrimental to the ongoing criminal investigation. The federal judge overseeing the proceedings ordered a six-month stay in the civil case.

Kovel declined to comment.

Edmonds was originally scheduled to be sentenced in Hartford, Conn., on Wednesday, Dec. 19, but a court filing on Nov. 27 shows the sentencing has been postponed until June. A spokesman for the U.S. Attorney for Connecticut could not elaborate on why the sentencing was postponed since the court filing is under seal.

-END-

Justice Department stalls another class action in gold market rigging, this one against JPM

 Section: 

9:47a ET Tuesday, March 5, 2019

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Proceedings in the federal class-action anti-trust lawsuit against JPMorganChase charging the investment bank with manipulating the gold and silver futures markets —

http://www.gata.org/node/18844

— have been suspended for three months at the request of the U.S. Justice Department, just as the department has arranged suspension of proceedings in the class-action anti-trust lawsuit against Deutsche Bank charging similar market manipulation.

… 

In both cases the Justice Department has told U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York that proceedings would jeopardize its criminal investigation into market rigging, which has been admitted by a former JPMorganChase trader, John Edmonds, who awaits sentencing.

According to court filings, the White Plains, New York, law firm representing the plaintiffs against JPMorganChase, Lowey Dannenberg, concurred in the government’s request to suspend proceedings. The stay is to continue for three months and may be extended.

The Justice Department’s motion, granted by the court on February 26 —

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStay.pdf

— said “the government is not seeking an open-ended stay that could indefinitely postpone this matter and thus jeopardize the parties’ interests in a timely resolution.” The motion added, “Any developments in the criminal case during the period the consolidated action is stayed may reduce or completely resolve the need to litigate certain issues in the consolidated action.”

Much of the Justice Department’s motion is redacted to conceal from the public evidence still under investigation. Edmonds has said he and other traders manipulated the gold and silver markets for years with the knowledge of their supervisors at JPMorganChase. In its motion to conceal that evidence, also granted by the court on February 26, the Justice Department said disclosure “could lead to destruction of evidence, flight from prosecution, and otherwise interfere with the government’s ability to conduct its investigation”:

http://www.gata.org/files/JPMorganChaseClassActionStaySeal.pdf

Monetary metals investors may be skeptical of the Justice Department’s stalling the Deutsche Bank and JPMorganChase cases, since the department and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission do not seem ever to have responded conscientiously to complaints of gold and silver market rigging until the class actions commenced.

How much time will the court give the Justice Department to delay getting to the bottom of the issue? The court might hasten matters if enough monetary metals mining companies protested the harm done to them and their shareholders by market rigging, but of course most monetary metals mining companies don’t mind at all.

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

 

-END-

Your early TUESDAY morning currency, Asian stock market results,  important USA/Asian currency crosses, gold/silver pricing overnight along with the price of oil Major stories overnight/9 AM EST

i) Chinese yuan vs USA dollar/CLOSED/ LAST AT: 6.7132/

 

//OFFSHORE YUAN:  6.7194   /shanghai bourse CLOSED UP 33.32 POINTS OR 1.10% /

 

HANG SANG CLOSED UP 417.57 POINTS OR 1.46%

 

 

2. Nikkei closed UP 378.80 POINTS OR 1.79%

 

 

 

 

 

 

3. Europe stocks OPENED RED EXCEPT LONDON

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/USA dollar index FALLS TO 97.19/Euro FALLS TO 1.1256

3b Japan 10 year bond yield: FALLS TO. –.03/ !!!!(Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese yen vs usa cross now at 111.20/ THIS IS TROUBLESOME AS BANK OF JAPAN IS RUNNING OUT OF BONDS TO BUY./JAPAN 10 YR YIELD IS NOW TARGETED AT .11%/JAPAN LOSING CONTROL OF THEIR BOND MARKET

 

3c Nikkei now JUST BELOW 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well below the important 120 barrier this morning

3e WTI:: 57.26 and Brent: 67.09

3f Gold UP/JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE YUAN:   ON -SHORE  UP  /OFF- SHORE: UP

3g Japan is to buy the equivalent of 108 billion uSA dollars worth of bond per month or $1.3 trillion. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion usa./“HELICOPTER MONEY” OFF THE TABLE FOR NOW /REVERSE OPERATION TWIST ON THE BONDS: PURCHASE OF LONG BONDS AND SELLING THE SHORT END

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and by 2018 they will have 25% of all Japanese debt. Fifty percent of Japanese budget financed with debt.

3h Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning

3i European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund RISES TO +.07%/Italian 10 yr bond yield UP to 2.56% /SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 1.16%…ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD/GERMAN BUND: 2.49: DANGEROUS FOR THE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM

3j Greek 10 year bond yield RISES TO : 3.88

3k Gold at $1296.20 silver at:15.41   7 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $18.50

3l USA vs Russian rouble; (Russian rouble UP 11/100 in roubles/dollar) 65.81

3m oil into the 57 dollar handle for WTI and 67 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits out of China sees huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 INITIATES NIRP. THIS MORNING THEY SIGNAL THEY MAY END NIRP. TODAY THE USA/YEN TRADES TO 111.20 DESTROYING JAPANESE CITIZENS WITH HIGHER FOOD INFLATION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the SF. It is not working: USA/SF this morning 1.0087 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF is 1.1352 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

3p BRITAIN VOTES AFFIRMATIVE BREXIT/LOWER PARLIAMENT APPROVES BREXIT COMMENCEMENT/ARTICLE 50 COMMENCES MARCH 29/2017

3r the 10 Year German bund now POSITIVE territory with the 10 year RISING to +0.07%

The bank withdrawals were causing massive hardship to the Greek bank. the Greek referendum voted overwhelming “NO”. Next step for Greece will be the recapitalization of the banks and that will be difficult.

4. USA 10 year treasury bond at 2.65% early this morning. Thirty year rate at 3.04%

5. Details Ransquawk, Bloomberg, Deutsche bank/Jim Reid.

6.  TURKISH LIRA:  UP  TO 5.4545

 

Futures Slide, Rally Fizzles Ahead Of Brexit Meaningful Vote

An overnight stock rally fizzled, futures dropped and the pound tumbled, erasing all of its Monday gains as the latest risk-on mood faded away after Theresa May struck a new deal ahead of today’s meaningless meaningful vote, which UK bookies still see May losing resulting in even more confusion over next steps.

European real estate and financial-services shares helped push the Stoxx 600 higher in early trading, although the rally faded away as the session progressed, with the index fading much of its overnight gains…

…. while Asian stocks headed for their biggest gain since January and emerging-market shares jumped. U.S. futures advanced after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indexes surged a day earlier, helped by news of a technology merger, an upgrade to Apple and signs of stabilization in American retail sales. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan closed up 1%. China’s Shanghai Composite pared early initial gains of as much as 1.9%, sliding back to unchanged, before a last hour bounce sparked perhaps by intervention from the National Team helped China eek out another day of modest gains, even as traders took profits; the CSI 300 Index also trimmed gains after rising as much as 2%, even so the index was up 25% this year while the ChiNext rose 1.1%, close to erasing 2018 losses.

Japan’s Nikkei stock index closed 1.8 percent higher, but Australian shares erased earlier gains to end down 0.1 percent.

A similar fizzle to early enthusiasm was observed on Wall Street futures, where the Emini erased all early losses, while Boeing stock resumed its slide as more countries banned the ill-fated Boeing 737 MAX.

Finally, gains were also faded in the U.K. pound which tumbled 250 pips from its Monday highs after UK’s Attorney General Geoffrey Cox trashed May’s Monday “deal”, saying legal risk of Brexit deal remains “unchanged” following last night’s revisions, though he also says the new deal does “reduce the risk” of the U.K. being locked in the contentious Irish backstop, the provision for avoiding a hard border in Ireland.

pound

Meanwhile, it was not clear if the changes agreed on by May would be sufficient to secure parliamentary support when lawmakers vote around  1900 GMT, having voted down May’s original deal by a record 230 votes in January. “This additional agreement to the existing contract does slightly increase the probability that by tonight the deal will go through, but only slightly increases it,” said Britt Weidenbach, head of European equities at DWS. “The market will probably only react to this in a more positive way once we know what the outcome is going to be. This might not be after tonight, it may be after Wednesday when we have a ruling on No-Deal and prolongation.”

In addition to the Brexit vote outcome, traders will be closely watching today’s US CPI print and Chinese production and retail sales as well as a Bank of Japan policy decision as investors seek to maintain their rediscovered risk apetite. Global stocks have been mostly on the rebound after their worst week since December.

In rates, Germany’s benchmark 10-year government bond yield rose 2.5 basis points to 0.09 percent — moving away from more than two-year lows hit last week in the wake of a dovish European Central Bank meeting. Benchmark 10-year Treasury note yields were at 2.6501 percent compared with a U.S. close of 2.641 percent on Monday.

The dollar index initially shed 0.3 percent before rebounding, while the euro was up 0.3 percent on the day. Cable, as noted, was all over the place.

In commodity markets, WTI (+0.9%) and Brent (+0.9%) futures continue edging higher on the back of heightened risk appetite wherein the former extended gains above USD 57.00/bbl whilst the latter gained a firmer footing above USD 67.00/bbl. Traders will be eyeing tonight’s release of API crude inventories following last-week’s much wider-than-expected build in stocks. Elsewhere, gold (+0.3%) posts marginal gains, aided by a mild pullback in the Greenback, copper (+1.4%) on the hand outperformed on the firmer risk sentiment.

On today’s calendar, expected data include inflation. Dick’s Sporting, Momo, and ZTO Express are among companies reporting earnings.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2,795.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.1% to 373.98
  • MXAP up 1.1% to 158.87
  • MXAPJ up 1% to 523.41
  • Nikkei up 1.8% to 21,503.69
  • Topix up 1.5% to 1,605.48
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.5% to 28,920.87
  • Shanghai Composite up 1.1% to 3,060.31
  • Sensex up 1% to 37,414.86
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.09% to 6,174.82
  • Kospi up 0.9% to 2,157.18
  • German 10Y yield rose 2.0 bps to 0.089%
  • Euro up 0.2% to $1.1270
  • Italian 10Y yield rose 5.6 bps to 2.206%
  • Spanish 10Y yield rose 1.3 bps to 1.167%
  • Brent futures up 0.8% to $67.10/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.2% to $1,295.95
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.2% to 97.00

Top Overnight News

  • Theresa May didn’t get the power to unilaterally exit the much- hated backstop arrangement aimed at preventing a hard Irish border. Nor did she get a time limit placed on it; European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker urged the U.K. parliament to approve the revised terms. “It is this deal, or Brexit may not happen at all,” he wrote on Twitter
  • China’s Vice Premier Liu He and his American counterparts decided on arrangements for the next stage of trade talks, state-run Xinhua News Agency reported; Liu, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin also held specific negotiations over critical issues about the wording of an agreement in the phone call this morning, Xinhua said, without giving further details
  • The European Central Bank’s latest stimulus action remains a sketch that could keep investors guessing for months on its true potency
  • Hong Kong authorities have never failed to keep the local dollar at its peg, or since 2005 within a set band against the dollar, yet that hasn’t stopped someone from writing options on a black-swan event
  • BOJ’s Amamiya says rates, asset buys, monetary base among BOJ options; will carefully watch impact of sale tax hike; BOJ should do utmost to hit price goal

Asia equity markets traded mostly higher as the region took impetus from the M&A inspired tech-led rally on Wall St and with sentiment also underpinned on Brexit related optimism after UK PM May’s last-ditch effort to reach an agreement with the EU resulted in legally binding changes that is said to strengthen and improve the withdrawal agreement. ASX 200 (+0.1%) was led higher by the energy sector following recent strength in oil prices but with gains eventually pared by weakness in gold miners and financials, while the Nikkei 225 (+1.9%) outperformed with the JPY-risk dynamic in full swing. Elsewhere, Hang Seng (+1.0%) and Shanghai Comp. (+1.8%) conformed to the heightened risk appetite and tech-kindled momentum, while China’s tax commissioner reiterated to enact significant tax cuts and there were also reports that top US and China trade negotiation officials discussed key issues and set the next steps in working arrangements over the phone. Finally, 10yr JGBs were initially subdued with demand sapped as focus was centred on riskier assets and with participants tentative ahead of a 5yr JGB auction, although prices then found mild support on return from the lunch break and after the auction results printed relatively inline with the previous.

Top Asian News

  • Mahathir Is Weighing Shutdown or Sale of Malaysia Airlines

European equities are somewhat mixed having waned off opening highs [Euro Stoxx 50 Unch] following a relatively upbeat Asia-Pac session. Sector wise, energy stocks lag their peers alongside telecom names, whilst consumer discretionary outperforms. FTSE 100 (Unch) has been fluctuating with the Pound ahead of tonight’s Brexit Meaningful Vote (analysis available on the headline feed).UK banks are faring well with RBS (+1.5%), Lloyds Group (+2.5%) and Barclays (+1.0%) shares all higher on the latest Brexit developments where PM May secured “legally binding” assurances on the NI backstop. Upside in UK homebuilders [Persimmon +3.9%, Taylor Wimpey +2.7%] are also attributed to Brexit progress. Elsewhere, German Union Verdi has disapproved the proposed merger between Deutsche Bank (-1.4%) and Commerzbank (-1.4%), although share prices were little moved as the news hit the wires. Volkswagen (-0.7%) reported their final numbers which were largely in-line with the prelim report. Finally, State-side, Boeing (-2.0%) shares resumed its decline after Australia became the latest country to ground the Boeing 737 Max 8.

Top European News

  • Shell Says It Can Be World’s Top Power Producer and Make Money
  • Germany Paralyzed by Trump’s Attacks on World That Made It Rich
  • VW Boosts EV Plan to 22 Million Cars as Key Brands Squeezed

In FX, first we look at GBP where some volatility around the raft of UK data that was mostly better than expected, but ultimately it’s all about the looming Meaningful Vote after PM May managed to secure last minute legally binding assurances to the Irish backstop. Sterling remains elevated across the board, though some way off best levels as Cable pivots 1.3200 vs almost 1.3290 at one stage and Eur/Gbp rebounds from circa 0.8475 lows towards 0.8550 awaiting several potentially key and game-changing events before the debate starts in Parliament and the ballot begins from 19.00GMT. In terms of the aforementioned major factors that could have a bearing on the outcome, the Attorney General’s verdict on the addendums to the WA appear paramount and are expected before 11.30GMT when the ERG is scheduled to meet and formulate opinions. On that note, independent legal advice for the Group concludes that the assurances still fall short of providing the UK with a get out from the contingency arrangement, but the DUP decision could sway the ERG’s final judgement.

  • NZD/CHF/EUR/AUD All firmer vs the Greenback that remains soft in wake of Monday’s mixed US retail sales release and due to Sterling’s extended recovery from sub-1.3000 lows, as the DXY straddled 97.000. The Kiwi is hovering just below 0.6850 and Franc is back above 1.0100, while the single currency has consolidated its comeback from post-ECB levels under 1.1200 to trade nearer the top of a 1.1245-90 range. Note, several big option expiries in Eur/Usd are close enough to influence trade into today’s NY cut, with 1.4 bn at 1.1250, 2.2 bn at 1.1225 and 1.9 bn at 1.1200 vs 1 bn at 1.1300. The Aussie has also benefited from a general improvement in risk sentiment within 0.7058-80 parameters, but still lagging its NZ peer as the Aud/Nzd cross remains capped ahead of 1.0350.
  • SEK/NOK Mixed fortunes for the Scandi Crowns as softer than forecast (overall) Swedish inflation data contrasts with recent Norwegian CPI and the Nok also derives momentum from firm oil prices along with an upbeat Norges Bank regional survey. Hence, Eur/Sek sits around 10.5700 vs Eur/Nok circa 9.7350, +0.15% and -0.15% on the day respectively

In commodities, WTI (+0.9%) and Brent (+0.9%) futures continue edging higher on the back of heightened risk appetite wherein the former extended gains above USD 57.00/bbl whilst the latter gained a firmer footing above USD 67.00/bbl. Traders will be eyeing tonight’s release of API crude inventories following last-week’s much wider-than-expected build in stocks. Elsewhere, gold (+0.3%) posts marginal gains, aided by a mild pullback in the Greenback, copper (+1.4%) on the hand outperformed on the firmer risk sentiment.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: US CPI MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.0%; CPI YoY, est. 1.6%, prior 1.6%
    • US CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%; CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 2.2%, prior 2.2%
  • 8:30am: Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY, prior 1.93%; Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY, prior 1.7%
  • 8:45am: Brainard Speaks at Community Reinvestment Conference in DC

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I get home last night to hear screaming and crying from the bathroom. I wondered upstairs to see what all the fuss was about only to hear Maisie scream that she didn’t want her hair washed. My wife was getting increasingly exacerbated and eventually said, “Maisie! You have to have your hair washed otherwise it will all fall out and you’ll end up looking like Daddy. You wouldn’t want that would you?” As unnecessary as I thought it was it seemed to do the trick and we had a deal.

I don’t believe Mrs May and Mr Juncker’s negotiations progressed in quite the same manner yesterday but something seemed to click after a day where the omens looked very bad indeed. By late last night, the two politicians had finally agreed on a new deal, which includes three new documents intended to provide additional legal guarantees that the UK can’t be trapped indefinitely inside the backstop arrangement. The new deal doesn’t give power to the UK to unilaterally exit the Irish backstop arrangement nor does it place a time limit on it as many Brexiteers wanted. It does however include a unilateral declaration by the UK regarding the backstop which, which Mrs May suggests has the same legal power as the existing framework. The new addition will give the UK some authority to walk away if the EU doesn’t do enough to replace it with a full trade deal. It gives the independent arbitration panel (comprising senior judges) authority to rule that the EU is acting in such a way as to make the backstop last indefinitely and in the case of “persistent failure” to comply with a ruling “it may result in temporary remedies” for the UK. However, Attorney General Cox’s formal opinion is due later this morning. Pro-Brexit MP and deputy ERG leader Steve Baker  has criticised the deal overnight, saying it falls “far short” of what he was looking for. The key now will be the position of the DUP, with Deputy Leader Dodds saying last that “all of this will need to be taken together and analysed very carefully.” So we’ll have to see how the new deal is received by parliament, but the initial reception from the financial markets has been positive, with the pound trading +0.418% stronger overnight after its +1.04% rally during yesterday’s trading session.

So the main event today will be the vote on the Withdrawal Agreement and its new accompanying unilateral declaration by the UK. It will likely be voted on shortly after 7pm London time (3pm New York). May’s coalition has a 16-vote majority, so she can afford to lose up to 15 votes before her deal fails. She lost 128 votes, split between her own Conservative Party and the DUP, in the last vote on her deal. So a tall order, and I’d imagine that she may still lose but if so can she reduce the loss to a manageable total her deal still may have some legs.

Ahead of this crucial vote, the good news is that markets have kicked off the new week in a decidedly better mood compared to the last few days thanks to a bit of M&A and some green shoot signs in the latest US retail sales data. Indeed the S&P 500 rose +1.47% yesterday after declining every day last week and also in eight of the last nine session prior to yesterday. We’re now back to only being down -0.46% since the start of that negative run. NVIDIA (+6.97%) was the biggest mover on a percentage basis after agreeing to buy chipmaker Mellanox. Other chipmakers also rallied, with the Philadelphia semiconductor index up +2.40%. The NASDAQ also rose +2.02% while the DOW (+0.79%) lagged behind after Boeing (-5.33%) fell by the most since October after select airlines grounded flights in the wake of the tragic weekend crash in Africa. Shares were down as much as -13.40% at the open so in fairness they recovered well, and we should also add that the share price is only back to where it was early last month. Cash bonds were fairly calm too, with the 2.8% 24s down less than half a point. In any case, when it was all said and done, yesterday turned out to be a decent case study of the difference in performance of a (nonsensically) price weighted index versus a market cap weighted index. The outperformance of the S&P over the DOW, at 0.68% yesterday, was the most since January 31st this year (which was impacted by a big fall for DowDuPont), however it’s a pretty rare occurrence to see as big a divergence, with only eight such instances of such outperformance since 2010.

The tone was better in Europe too although it played second fiddle somewhat to deciphering what on earth was going on in and around Downing Street. The STOXX 600 closed up +0.78% and European Banks rebounded +2.06%, which pares the month to date loss to a slightly more palatable -4.32%. HY credit spreads were -3bps tighter in Europe and -4bps tighter the US while rates were a bit less active. Bunds touched what would’ve been a new 29-month low of 0.059% but closed unchanged around 1bp higher. Treasuries were up +1.1bps post the latest retail sales data, while BTPs (+5.7bps) also underperformed following comments from Salvini warning against “colonizing Italy”. EM FX (+0.29%) also had a better day with the wider risk on move, although was also helped by the move for oil with WTI (+1.37%) boosted by reports that Saudi Arabia was to extend deep supply cuts into next month.

Overnight markets in Asia are also moving higher following Wall Street’s lead with the Nikkei (+1.95%), Hang Seng (+1.40%), Shanghai Comp (+1.81%) and Kospi (+0.87%) all up. Elsewhere, futures on the S&P 500 are up +0.26% and 10y treasury yields are up +1.6bps. In other news, China’s state-run Xinhua News Agency reported that China’s Vice Premier Liu He and the US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin have decided on arrangements for the next stage of trade talks while adding that they also had specific negotiations over critical issues about the wording of an agreement in a phone call this morning.

Looking back on the US data from yesterday now. Headline retail sales in January rose +0.2% mom which was slightly ahead of expectations for a flat reading, however there were notably bigger beats for the core (+1.2% mom vs. +0.6% expected) and control group (+1.1% mom vs. +0.6% expected) readings. That said, the data did come with significant downward revisions to the prior two months. Our US economists made the point that the decline in retail control in December, at -2.3% mom, is now the second largest on record and the biggest since January 2000. So that should weigh on Q4 GDP by 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points, but at least it points to improvement moving forward.

Prior to this in Germany the January industrial production print disappointed at -0.8% mom (vs. +0.5% expected) however there was a decent upward revision to the data in December. Staying with data, we should also note that yesterday Turkey entered a technical recession following a second consecutive negative quarter on quarter GDP reading (-2.4% qoq for Q4). The Turkish Lira was little changed which goes to show that a slowdown is fully priced in.

Also yesterday, President Trump’s administration released their budget blueprint for the 2020 fiscal year. It included a $54 billion cut to discretionary spending, a cut of around 9% versus this year’s budget. The proposal would also cut social spending on healthcare programs, and shift funding to the departments of Homeland Security and Defense. With Democrats in control of the House, his proposal is basically irrelevant to the budget process. That said, it does provide a useful window into President Trump’s priorities and reelection campaign strategy, which looks likely to focus on national security and immigration.

While Brexit developments might dominate much of the spotlight today, there is also US CPI data to watch out for this afternoon. The consensus expects a +0.2% mom core reading which would be enough to likely hold the annual rate at +2.2% yoy for a fourth consecutive month. Away from this we’ll get the February NFIB small business optimism reading (+1.2pts to 102.5 expected) while in the UK this morning we’ll get the January trade balance, as well as the latest industrial production print and latest monthly GDP reading. Away from the data the ECB’s Lautenschlaeger is due to speak this morning while the Fed’s Brainard speaks this afternoon. The European Parliament is also due to vote on a measure tied to Huawei called “Security Threats Connected with the Rising Chinese Technological Presence”.

 

 

3. ASIAN AFFAIRS

i)TUESDAY MORNING/ MONDAY NIGHT: 

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 33.32 POINTS OR 1.10% //Hang Sang CLOSED UP 417.57 POINTS OR 1.56%  /The Nikkei closed UP 378.80 POINTS OR 1/79%/ Australia’s all ordinaires CLOSED DOWN .04%

/Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN  at 6.7132 AS TRUCE DECLARED FOR 3 MONTHS /Oil DOWN to 57.26 dollars per barrel for WTI and 67.09 for Brent. Stocks in Europe OPENED RED EXCEPT LONDON 

ONSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN // LAST AT 6.7132 AGAINST THE DOLLAR. OFFSHORE YUAN CLOSED DOWN ON THE DOLLAR AT 6.7194: / TRADE TALKS NOW ON/MAJOR PROBLEMS AT HUAWEI /CFO ARRESTED  : /ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST USA DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST THE DOLLAR /CHINA RETALIATES WITH TARIFFS/ TRUMP RESPONDS TO NEW TARIFFS AND IT NOW A FULL TRADE WAR COMMENCED

 

3 a NORTH KOREA/USA

 

 

 

i)North Korea/

3 b JAPAN AFFAIRS

3 C CHINA

China/

CHINA’S Minsky moment is approaching rapidly.  China has a huge total debt/GDP of 300% as of 2017.  China’s debt of 40 trillion dollars compares to a GDP of 13 trillion dollars.  We reported to you last week that Kyle Bass’s Hyman capital discovered that there was an additional 6 billion dollars worth of hidden shadow banking/local government debt.  Thus the true debt per GDP is 340% and much of this local debt is coming due with declining revenues.  China is rapidly approaching its Minsky Moment…

(courtesy zerohedge)

 

 

China Scrambles To Defuse $6 Trillion “Hidden Debt Bomb” With “Titanic Credit Risk”

When it comes to estimating China’s total outstanding debt, there has long been confusion about the real number with most putting the debt/GDP at around 250%, while the IIF in 2017 calculated China’s debt load as high as 300% of GDP (which means that by now it is substantially higher).

Then, last year, China watchers added another 40% of debt/GDP to the total when, as S&P calculated, China’s local governments had accumulated 40 trillion yuan ($6 trillion) – or even more – in off-balance sheet, or Local government financing vehicles (LGFV) debt, an amount Bloomberg has dubbed China’s “hidden debt bomb“, suggesting the already record surge in defaults in 2018 is set to accelerate further. 

The potential amount of debt is an iceberg with titanic credit risks,” S&P credit analysts wrote in October 2018, with much of the build-up related to local government financing vehicles, which don’t necessarily have the full financial backing of local governments themselves.

Local government debt has quickly emerged, together with “shadow banking” debt, as one of the main risks for China’s economy, because with the national economy slowing, and as a result of a crackdown on shadow lending and a Beijing quota for issuance of local-government bonds not enough to fund infrastructure projects to support regional growth, authorities across the country have resorted to LGFVs to raise financing, according to S&P. That’s left LGFVs “walking a tightrope” between deleveraging and transforming their businesses into more typical state-owned enterprises, S&P warned.

So fast forward 6 months, when in China’s ongoing attempt to contain the soaring financial risks from its debt bubble, Beijing – seemingly content with the progress it has made on containing shadow debt – is re-focusing on the “hidden debt” owed by local governments, as officials seek to reduce repayment pressures amid falling tax revenues.

And with Beijing adding pressure on local authorities to become more transparent with their liabilities, Bloomberg reportsthat provinces and cities from Jiangsu in the east to Qinghai in the west are looking for means to pay-off or restructure their implicit borrowings, which include trillions in “off the books” funding via financing vehicles. Some authorities are seeking cheap refinancing from the nation’s largest policy lender, the China Development Bank, and others are selling off state-owned assets such as office buildings and housing.

Efforts to deleverage the “hidden time bomb” of 40 trillion in local government debt have gained urgency after the government recently pledged to cut taxes by two trillion yuan ($300 billion), further draining local coffers and adding to the possibility of missed repayments. Meanwhile, the lack of official estimates of the total local government debt load – S&P’s CNY40 trillion estimate is just that – which usually carries higher rates than on-book ones, makes the issue even trickier.

There is a more pressing reason behind the rush to deleverage: as Nomura’s China economist Lu Ting said, the motive is “just that the problem can’t be delayed anymore,” as in many places fiscal revenues and gross domestic product aren’t enough to cover the interest and principals.

In other words, China may be just months ahead of its own Minsky Moment.

With official probes now taking place to quantify the local debt, so far they’ve shown that hidden debt in some places exceeds the on-book borrowing, a lawmaker of the National People’s Congress Zhu Mingchun said over the weekend, according to Bloomberg.

Meanwhile, payments due for local-government financing vehicle debt are soaring and could reach 2.3 trillion yuan this year, according to estimates by Industrial Securities Co, which notes that local authorities will have to carry that burden at a time of slowing revenue growth due to tax cuts and shrinking receipts from land sales.

One possible solution is massive restructuring of the debt: in one case in December, the CDB led a group of commercial lenders in a swap of 260.7 billion yuan of implicit debt borrowed by Shanxi province to build highways. The debt was restructured with a tenor of up to 25 years, allowing the local authorities to save 3 billion yuan in interest payments every year, according to Shanxi Transportation Holdings Group. As Bloomberg notes, asset sales are also being used. For example, a district in the northeastern city of Shenyang is planning to sell more than 38,000 square meters of offices and government-built housing to repay maturing debt.

Of course, since in China everything is in some state of being a bubble, officials are simply using “the healthier part of the balance sheet of the public sector to address some of the hidden issues,” but they have to make sure the risky loans won’t get out of control again in the future, because by that time the balance sheet would be less capable of absorbing them, according to Grace Ng, a China JPMorgan economist.

China is also taking advantage of the current euphoria involving local capital markets: a financing platform in the eastern province of Jiangsu, where the CDB is involved in some cases of debt restructuring, sold a 270-day bond last week with a coupon of 4.8 percent, 150 basis points lower than a similar note the company issued in January. On Monday, a financing and investment company owned by a city in Shanxi province was upgraded to AA+ from AA by China Chengxin International Credit Rating Co., which cited the better outlook for capital quality.

“The bigger worry is the moral hazard issue,” said Zhu Ning, a professor of finance at Tsinghua University and the author of “China’s Guaranteed Bubble.” “Implicit government guarantees still lie at the core of so many problems.”

And nowhere is the problem of moral hazard greater than in China, whose financial sector is approaching double the size of its US peer even as China’s GDP is years behind catching up with America’s. Which makes Beijing’s choice relatively easy: keep kicking the can, or watch as the long-overdue Minsky Moment finally arrives and topples the biggest house of financial cards ever constructed.

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS

UK/Monday night

The pound rallies as supposedly May securies a critical Brexit concession from the EU.  However we are not sure that this is true

(courtesy zerohedge)

Pound Rallies As May Secures Critical Brexit Concessions From EU

Has Theresa May done the impossible?

Though negotiations are still taking place between May and European Commission President Jean Claude Juncker in Strasbourg, UK Cabinet Office Minister David Lidington told the Commons on Monday night that May had secured “legally binding” changes to the withdrawal agreement. If accurate, this would be a major concession on the part of the EU, which had repeatedly insisted that the deal, which was struck last year, was closed and would not be reopened.

The purported concession comes ahead of a crucial Tuesday night meaningful vote on May’s deal that many see as possibly the last chance for her to pass the deal. If it fails, it could give frustrated MPs and cabinet ministers to oust her from office.

The pound rallied on the news, though the move swiftly started to fade after Lidington mentioned that negotiations were ongoing, while the euro weakened to its lowest level since May 2017 against sterling.

Pound

Lidington went on to defend May’s original deal, and warned lawmakers that they now faced a stark choice: Vote for May’s deal on Tuesday, or plunge the country into a political crisis.

Though it’s not the first time we’ve heard that.

Immediately after Lidington, Labour Shadow Brexit Secretary Keir Starmer tore apart what May is reportedly offering.

She said it will involve changing the Withdrawal Agreement,” Starmer points out, adding that May then voted for the backstop to be replaced. “It sounds as though none of that has happened.”

“To stand here today and say this is a significant change when she’s repeating what she said on January 14 is not going to take us very far.”

And here’s the key question:

“Is a single word of the Withdrawal Agreement different?” Starmer asks.

And Bloomberg’s Dublin Bureau chief Dara Doyle urged traders to be careful before deciding whether this is a game changer.

Would urge caution before deciding this is a game changer. There appears to be no fail-safe unilateral mechanism for the U.K. to exit the backstop, and already commentators close to Northern Ireland’s DUP, which supports May’s government in parliament, is raising doubts about how significant these “improvements” really are.

While several ERG members responded that they believed the agreement would fall short of the promises from the Brady Amendment, Jacob Rees-Mogg, one of the group’s leaders, struck an optimistic tone and said the agreement appeared to be an improvement.

We now await the inevitable walk-back from May’s cabinet and denials from Juncker and the EU27.

END
TUESDAY MORNING:
the pound tumbles as the UK attorney General trashes May’s last minute deal as a phony
(courtesy zerohedge)

Pound Tumbles As Attorney General Trashes May’s Last-Minute Deal With EU

For a brief moment, the notion that Theresa May had finally wrested a crucial concession from the EU – namely, that it had agreed to grant the UK “legally binding assurances” that it could unilaterally exit the Irish Backstop in the event of a deal deadlock – seemed too good to be true.

And as it turned out, it was.

After issuing a tensely anticipated legal advice on Tuesday, Attorney General Geoffrey Cox contradicted May and the rest of her cabinet by determining that the interpretive document offered the UK by the EU would grant no legally guaranteed right to exit the backstop.

In other words, Cox has confirmed the objections of May’s eurosceptic critics, who alleged last night after the text of the agreement had been released that nothing had changed.

While the risk of “bad faith entrapment” in the Irish Backstop had been “reduced” thanks to May’s concessions, Cox couldn’t rule it out entirely.

Faisal Islam

@faisalislam

Attorney General new advice key bit – bad faith entrapment in backstop “risk is reduced” BUT in case of intractable differences (ie over whether new tech solves border) legal risk “remains unchanged” with “no internationally lawful means of exiting [backstop] save by Agreement” pic.twitter.com/nxEHRp5kdX

The advice virtually ensures an extension of the Brexit deadline.

Jack Maidment

@jrmaidment

What Geoffrey Cox’s legal advice likely means:
🚨Theresa May’s deal almost certainly doomed to another crushing defeat
🚨Pendulum has swung firmly towards Remainers
🚨MPs likely to rule out no-deal on Wednesday
🚨MPs likely to vote in favour of Article 50 extension on Thursday

The news sent the pound tumbling as it practically guarantees that a second vote on May’s deal, expected late Tuesday (though it may yet be cancelled), will fail.

pound

Traders held out hope overnight after several key Brexiteers, including the leaders of the DUP and ERG leader Jacob Rees-Mogg affirmed that May’s deal looked promising and that they would withhold judgment until they had a chance to carefully review the text, and consider the Attorney General’s legal advice. This seemed to outweigh doubts expressed by Brexiteers including Steve Baker, who claimed that the latest concession left the deal essentially unchanged.

Of course, this is just the latest indignity for the long suffering pound.

James Crombie

@jtcrombie

new Brexit deal going well

A DUP source affirmed on Tuesday that they didn’t see how the party could support the deal following Cox’s advice. As a reminder, here’s what May would need to pass the deal (courtesy of @Ransquawk): PM May needs 318 votes to pass her deal, assuming all lawmakers vote.

Ideally, these would include:

  • 10 DUP members
  • At least 65 ERG members
  • Up to 40 Labour leave votes
  • 4 Independent votes

Cox is expected to address the commons at 12:30 GMT (8:30 ET), before May opens the debate on the meaningful vote for her deal at 1 pm GMT (9 am ET), with the vote set to begin at 7 pm GMT (3 pm ET).

END

Italy/China/USA

interesting: the uSA is now very worried about the coziness of Italy to China especially its China Belt and Road Initiative  (BRI).  Of course if Italy leaves the European Monetary Union, that would be the death blow to the Euro

(courtesy zerohedge)

US Issues Warning About Italy Being Made Great Again Through China’s BRI

The U.S. National Security Council issued a direct warning to Italy last weekend for its coziness with China. The country has been considering participating in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), where one segment of the global economic effort aims to unite Europe with China.

“Italy is a major global economy and a great investment destination. Endorsing BRI lends legitimacy to China’s predatory approach to investment and will bring no benefits to the Italian people,” tweeted the US National Security Council.

NSC

@WHNSC

Italy is a major global economy and a great investment destination. Endorsing BRI lends legitimacy to China’s predatory approach to investment and will bring no benefits to the Italian people.

Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte believes otherwise. Conte has overruled the foreign ministry and joined right-wing Eurosceptics in his push for closer cooperation with China.

“With all the necessary precautions, Italy’s accession to a new silk route represents an opportunity for our country,” Conte said Friday.

President Xi Jinping is expected to travel to Italy from March 22-24, and Conte said Rome and Beijing are expected to agree to a framework deal during the state visit. Conte also announced his plan to attend an upcoming BRI summit in China.

The Italian leader’s plan to attend a BRI summit in Beijing next month has caused panic in Brussels and Washington, as Italy is on course to become the first G7 country to gravitate to China’s trade initiative that US and EU officials have intensely criticized.

“Italian governments have always had a keen eye on the belt and road, as the attention with which the current administration follows developments is largely inherited from the previous governments,” said Giovanni Andornino, a China expert based at the University of Torino in northern Italy.

“What is different now is that this government is much happier in having interaction with China, as opposed to being a driving force in the process of the EU-wide negotiation with China,” Andornino said.

Wang Yiwei, director of the Centre for EU Studies at the Renmin University of China, said Rome’s resistance against Washington and Brussels stemmed from the Eurosceptic roots of its populist government.

“The current Italian government has always opposed the European Union, so they are less prejudiced against [China’s initiative] than the traditional political parties in Europe,” said Wang, who was a diplomat at the Chinese mission to the European Union from 2008 to 2011.”

Like many other nations in southern Europe, Italy is attempting to pull itself out of a deep economic recession that started at the end of 2018. Italy can’t turn to Brussels nor Washington because they currently don’t have a viable plan to restore economic growth. So right-wing Eurosceptics are increasingly resorting to aligning with China (and often, Russia), a move that has left Washington furious.

end
Germany/Deutsche bank/Commerz Bank
Deutsche bank’s stock is down this morning after a supervisory board member signaled strong internal resistance to the rescue attempt
(courtesy zerohedge)

“We Reject A Merger” – Deutsche Bank Supervisory Board Opposes Commerz Bank Deal

Deutsche Bank shares are down this morning after a critical supervisory-board member has signaled strong internal resistance to the planned rescue (sorry, merger) with Commerzbank.

Bloomberg reports that Jan Duscheck, an official with the Ver.di union and a key labor representative on Deutsche Bank’s supervisory board, opposes the merger, saying it would threaten thousands of jobs and fail to shore up Germany’s finance sector. The stance is hardening as talks behind the scenes gradually advance.

“We reject a merger,” Duscheck — who has served on Deutsche Bank’s supervisory board since 2016 — said in an emailed statement. The deal would make the combined bank even more susceptible to a hostile takeover from abroad and “would not create a national champion,” he said, taking a rare public stand.

Employee representatives are powerful forces in German companies, generally making up half the seats on supervisory boards, which hire and fire senior executives and sign off on major strategy decisions.

“At least 10,000 further jobs would be directly threatened,” Duscheck said.

“That would be in addition to jobs that would probably have to go in the future because the merged bank, seen from today, would not achieve the growth expected of it.”

It is clear that the hurdles for completion of this deal are high and getting higher. So what happens next? Lehman here we come?

5.RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

This does not look good:  Iran’s Rouhani makes his first ever trip to Iraq and states that he will bypass the unjust uSA sanctions. Iran wants to build a land bridge from Iran straight to Lebanon.
(courtesy zerohedge)

Iran’s Rouhani Makes First Ever Visit To Iraq To “Bypass Unjust US Sanctions”

What Iran is billing as President Hassan Rouhani’s first “historic” and landmark visit to Iraq, both the United States and Israel are seeing as a provocative move to solidify Iran’s influence over Baghdad.

Just prior to arriving in Iraq Monday, Rouhani said on state television that his country is determined to “strengthen its brotherly ties” with neighboring Iraq. It’s expected that the the three-day visit will result in a wide range of economic deals in fields such as energy, transport, and agriculture; however, as Israel’s Haaretz writes based on a Reuters report:

The visit is a strong message to the United States and its regional allies that Iran still dominates Baghdad, a key arena for rising tension between Washington and Tehran.

 

Iran’s Rouhani began a three day visit to Iraq on Monday. Image source: Reuters

Reuters further noted that Shi’ite Iran will is using the official visit to gain all the trade and energy export deals it can as Tehran suffers amidst US-led international sanctions, and as it continues to demand more concrete action from Europe in the wake of last year’s US pullout of the JCPOA nuclear deal.

“We are very much interested to expand our ties with Iraq, particularly our transport cooperation,” Rohani said at Tehran’s Mehrabad airport. “We have important projects that will be discussed during this visit.”

Crucially, a senior Iranian official who is accompanying Rohani on the trip told Reuters:

Iraq is another channel for Iran to bypass America’s unjust sanctions imposed on Iran. This trip will provide opportunities for Iran’s economy.

Rouhani was welcomed and escorted by Iraqi President Barham Salih and Foreign Minister Mohamed Ali Hakim after the Iranian president touched down in Baghdad on Monday. The official itinerary begins with a visit to a Shia shrine in the Iraqi capital.

The timing of Rouhani’s visit is further interesting in light of the US-led coalition’s anti-ISIL campaign, which is fast wrapping up just across the border in Syria’s Baghouz.

 

Iraq’s President Barham Salih and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, via Reuters.

Over the past year immense tension has grown between allies Baghdad and Washington over Iraq’s reliance on Iran-backed Iraqi Shiite paramilitary units to wage war against ISIS and other Sunni terror groups.

As Al Jazeera notes:

Since Rouhani’s election in 2013, Iraq has relied on Iranian paramilitary support to fight ISIL following the group’s capture of the Iraqi city of Mosul and other territories in both Iraq and Syria.

Now, with the armed fighters facing a final territorial defeat in the Syrian village of Baghouz, Iran is looking for Iraq’s continued support as it faces a maximalist pressure campaign by President Donald Trump after his decision to withdraw the United States from Tehran’s nuclear deal with world powers.

But this is ultimately the lasting legacy of Bush and Cheney’s 2003 regime change war and toppling of Saddam Hussein: they overthrew a Sunni Baath secular dictator in exchange for entrenching pro-Iran influence in Baghdad, to the delight of the Ayatollahs.

Washington can now behold the fruits of its neocon interventionist labor as Iran’s president is granted a hero’s welcome in the heart of Baghdad (this after Iran and Iraq were very recently bitter enemies)  all the while US officials in the same city will look on helplessly from the sidelines.

END

6.GLOBAL ISSUES

Australia and Singapore ground the Boeing 737 Max 8 as there is doubt about its safety

(courtesy zerohedge)

Australia, Singapore Ground Boeing 737 MAX 8s As Doubts About Safety Grow

Despite a reassuring (for some) statement from the FAA affirming that Boeing’s 737 MAX 8 planes remain “safe” for flight, more countries on Tuesday have opted to ground the planes, including Singapore and Australia, in a rare break with US air-travel regulators.

Jet

Australia’s Civil Aviation Safety Authority said on Tuesday that it had suspended the operation of all Boeing 737 MAX aircraft flying to or from the country. Since no Australian airlines fly the aircraft (though its Virgin Air recently ordered dozens of new MAX 8s), the decision only impacts the Singaporean airlines SilkAir and Fiji Airlines, according to the FT.

“This is a temporary suspension while we wait for more information to review the safety risks of continued operations of the Boeing 737 MAX,” said CASA’ chief executive and director of aviation safety, Shane Carmody, in a statement to the Sydney Morning Herald.

Meanwhile, Virgin Australia has 40 MAX aircraft on order, and said it was “closely watching the situation”, and hinted that it could change its order depending on the outcome of the investigation.

“With our first aircraft delivery not due until November this year, we believe there is sufficient time to consider the outcome of the investigation and make an assessment,” a Virgin spokeswoman said.

So far, more than half of the airlines flying the 737 MAX 8 have grounded the planes. Yesterday, China, Ethiopia and Indonesia grounded said they would wait for more details of Sunday’s crash to emerge, while a few Latin American countries followed suit. The plane only entered service in 2017, have grounded the aircraft, according to the New York Times.

SN

Though Southwest Airlines and American Airlines have continued to use the aircraft, following the FAA’s advice, they said they would be keeping an eye on events.

The planes are typically used for international flights, or covering long distances domestically:

Plane

Boeing has delivered 350 of the aircraft since it entered service, and has a backlog of more than 5,000 orders.

Boeing shares closed off the lows on Monday, but appeared to be headed lower once again in pre-market trading.

END
More mass groundings of Boeing’s 737 Max 8
(courtesy zerohedge)

737 Max 8 Makes Unexplained U-Turn Over Romania Amid Mass Groundings  

A Norwegian Air 737 Max 8 flying from Stockholm, Sweden to Tel Aviv, Israel made a dramatic mid-flight U-turn on Tuesday after the low-cost airline temporarily suspended all 18 of its Boeing 737 Max 8s.

The move comes as 31 airlines and several countries announced the grounding of the Max 8 following a deadly Sunday crash in Ethiopia which killed 157 people – the second in less than six months after an Indonesian Lion Air Jet plunged into the ocean last October, killing 189.

“In response to the temporary suspension of Being 737 MAX operations by multiple aviation authorities we have taken the decision to not operate flights using this aircraft type, until advised otherwise by the relevant aviation authorities,” said Tomas Hesthammer, operations chief in an email to AFP.

Flight number DY4545 was a little more than halfway to Israel on Tuesday when it turned around and returned to Stockholm’s Arlanda Airport.

Norwegian air acted immediately after the United Kingdom’s Civil Aviation Authority announced that the 737 Max 8 would not be allowed in British airspace.

(h/t Kotzbomber747)

According to the Associated Press, the following list of countries and airlines have grounded the plane:

AUSTRALIA

Australia has announced a temporary ban on flights by Boeing 737 Max aircraft, although none of its airlines currently operate them. The Civil Aviation Safety Authority said Tuesday that the ban will affect two foreign airlines — SilkAir and Fiji Airways — that use them for flights to Australia. The authority said Singapore’s SilkAir has already grounded its 737 Max jets, and that it is working with regulators there and in Fiji to minimize disruptions. It said that Fiji Airways has two 737 Max 8 jets in its fleet. The airline had hoped to continue flying the jets to Pacific destinations.

___

BRAZIL

Brazil’s Gol Airlines has suspended the use of seven Max 8 jets. The airline said it is following the investigation closely and hopes to return the aircraft to use as soon as possible. Gol said it has made nearly 3,000 flights with the Max 8, which went into service last June, with “total security and efficiency.”

___

CAYMAN ISLANDS

Cayman Airways, a Caribbean carrier, said it stopped using its two Max 8 jets starting Monday. President and CEO Fabian Whorms said the move will cause changes to flight schedules. Cayman is the flag carrier of Cayman Islands, a British overseas territory.

___

CHINA

China has 96 Max 8 jets in service, belonging to carriers such as Air China, China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines. The civil aviation authority directed the planes to be grounded indefinitely on Monday. It said the order was “taken in line with the management principle of zero tolerance for security risks.” There were eight Chinese citizens on the Ethiopian Airlines flight that crashed shortly after taking off on Sunday. The authority said it will consult the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration and Boeing before deciding when to lift the ban.

___

ETHIOPIA

A spokesman for Ethiopian Airlines says it grounded its remaining four Max 8 jets as an “extra safety precaution” while it investigates Sunday’s deadly crash. The airline is awaiting the delivery of 25 more Max 8 jets.

___

FRANCE

No French airlines use the Boeing 737 Max, but as a precautionary measure, French authorities decided to “forbid all commercial flights on a Boeing 737 Max departing from, traveling to, or flying across, France.” In a statement Tuesday, the French Civil Aviation Authority said that “France is carefully following the progress of the inquiry” into the crash.

___

GERMANY

German Transport Minister Andreas Scheuer told n-tv television safety is the priority, and “until all doubts are cleared up, I have ordered that German airspace be closed for the Boeing 737 Max with immediate effect.”

___

INDIA

India’s Jet Airways says it is “in contact with the manufacturer” of Max 8 jets and has grounded five of them starting Monday. Indian airline SpiceJet also uses the aircraft, but it’s unclear if those planes are grounded. Calls and emails to the company were unanswered Tuesday.

___

INDONESIA

Indonesia said it would temporarily ground Max 8 jets to inspect their airworthiness. Director General of Air Transportation Polana B. Pramesti said the move was made to ensure flight safety. A Lion Air model of the same plane crashed in Indonesia in October. Indonesian airlines operate 11 Max 8 jets. Lion Air, which owns 10 of them, said it will try to minimize the impact of the decision on operations. The other Max 8 jet belongs to national carrier Garuda.

___

IRELAND

Irish aviation authorities have suspended flights by all variants of Boeing 737 Max aircraft into and out of Ireland’s airspace. Irish authorities say they made the decision “based on ensuring the continued safety of passengers and flight crew.”

___

MALAYSIA

The Civil Aviation Authority said in a short statement Tuesday that no Malaysian carriers operate the Max 8, but that foreign airlines are banned from flying the plane in Malaysia, and from transiting in the country, until further notice.

___

MEXICO

Mexican airline Aeromexico has suspended flights of its six Max 8 jets. Aeromexico said it “fully” trusts the safety of its fleet but ordered the grounding to ensure “the safety of its operations and the peace of mind of its customers.” It said other planes will take over the routes usually flown by the Max 8.

___

NORWAY

Norwegian Air Shuttle said it grounded its 18 Boeing 737 Max 8 aircraft on the recommendation of European aviation authorities. Tomas Hesthammer, the low-cost carrier’s acting chief operating officer, says that “the safety and security of our customers and colleagues will never be compromised, and once authorities advise to cease operations we will of course comply.”

___

SINGAPORE

Singapore has temporarily banned Max 8 jets — and other models in the Max range — from entering and leaving the country. The civil aviation authority said it was “closely monitoring the situation” and the ban will be “reviewed as relevant safety information becomes available.” SilkAir, a regional carrier owned by Singapore Airlines, has six Max 8 jets. It said the ban “will have an impact on some of the airline’s flight schedules.”

___

SOUTH KOREA

South Korean airline Eastar Jet said it would suspend operations of its two Boeing 737 Max 8 planes and replaced them with Boeing 737-800 planes starting Wednesday on routes to Japan and Thailand. The airline says it hasn’t found any problems, but is voluntarily grounding the planes in response to customer concerns.

___

TURKEY

In a statement on Twitter Tuesday, Turkish Airlines CEO Bilal Eksi said all Boeing 737 Max flights are suspended until the “uncertainty affecting safety is cleared.” He added that passenger safety was the company’s priority.

___

UNITED KINGDOM

The UK Civil Aviation Authority said in a statement Tuesday that though it had been monitoring the situation, it had as a precautionary measure “issued instructions to stop any commercial passenger flights from any operator arriving, departing or overflying UK airspace.” Five 737 Max aircraft are registered and operational in the United Kingdom, while a sixth had planned to start operations later this week.

***

Update: Belgium has also banned the 737 Max 8.

end

7  OIL ISSUES

8. EMERGING MARKETS

 

Venezuela

Escalation seems to be the name of the game as the USA removes its Venezuela’s embassy staff

(courtesy zerohedge)

US to Withdraw Remaining Staff From Venezuela Embassy

In a troubling sign of potential imminent escalation, the US announced late on Monday night that the remaining diplomatic staff at the American embassy in Venezuela will be withdrawn by the end of the week, citing the ongoing and deteriorating political and humanitarian conditions in the socialist nation. Cited by Fox News, secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s announcement came as Caracas grapples with continuing power outages and protests amid a deepening political crisis.

“Like the January 24 decision to withdraw all dependents and reduce embassy staff to a minimum, this decision reflects the deteriorating situation in Venezuela as well as the conclusion that the presence of U.S. diplomatic staff at the embassy has become a constraint on U.S. policy,” read a statement obtained by Fox News.

In late January, all U.S. diplomats were ordered by Venezuela’s embattled president Maduro to leave Venezuela in response to President Donald Trump’s support of challenger Guaido. However, Maduro retreated his decision and allowed them to stay. The U.S. still withdrew the dependents of embassy personnel as well as some of its staff.

The decision comes as Venezuela continues to grapple with a paralyzing power outage that began Thursday evening, leaving people with little power, water, and communications.

On Monday, schools and businesses were closed, long lines of cars waited at the few gasoline stations with electricity and hospitals cared for many patients without power. Generators have alleviated conditions for some of the critically ill.

Maduro said on a national television Monday night that progress had been made in restoring power in Venezuela, adding that two people who were allegedly trying to sabotage power facilities were captured and were providing information to authorities, though he gave no details. According to the Venezuelan Union of Journalists (SNTP), one of the detained was Caracas-based journalist Luis Carlos Diaz, who was reportedly taken into custody while on his way home.

Maduro also accused the U.S. of sabotaging the power grid with a “cyberattack,” claims that Guaido and the U.S. have said are an attempt to divert attention from the government’s own failings. And while engineers restored power in some parts of Venezuela, it often goes out again.

The U.S. on Monday also imposed sanctions on a Moscow-based bank jointly owned by Russian and Venezuelan state-owned companies, alleging it tried to circumvent U.S. sanctions on the South American country. The U.S. said it is targeting Evrofinance Mosnarbank for supporting Petroleos de Venezuela SA, the state oil company previously targeted by sanctions in January.

end

Your early morning currency/gold and silver pricing/Asian and European bourse movements/ and interest rate settings TUESDAY morning 7:00 AM….

Euro/USA 1.1256 DOWN .0004 REACTING TO MERKEL’S FAILED COALITION/ REACTING TO +GERMAN ELECTION WHERE ALT RIGHT PARTY ENTERS THE BUNDESTAG/ huge Deutsche bank problems + USA election:///ITALIAN CHAOS /AND NOW ECB TAPERING BOND PURCHASES/JAPAN TAPERING BOND PURCHASES /USA RISING INTEREST RATES /FLOODING/EUROPE BOURSES RED EXCEPT LONDON 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USA/JAPAN YEN 111.19  DOWN .137 (Abe’s new negative interest rate (NIRP), a total DISASTER/NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT .11% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…

GBP/USA 1.3009    UDOWN   0.0236  (Brexit March 29/ 2019/ARTICLE 50 SIGNED/BREXIT FEES WILL BE CAPPED

USA/CAN 1.3410 UP .0018 CANADA WORRIED ABOUT TRADE WITH THE USA WITH TRUMP ELECTION/ITALIAN EXIT AND GREXIT FROM EU/(TRUMP INITIATES LUMBER TARIFFS ON CANADA/CANADA HAS A HUGE HOUSEHOLD DEBT/GDP PROBLEM)

Early THIS TUESDAY morning in Europe, the Euro FELL by 4 basis points, trading now ABOVE the important 1.08 level  FALLING to 1.1256 Last night Shanghai composite closed UP 33.32 POINTS OR 1.10%/

 

 

 

//Hang Sang CLOSED UP 417.57   POINTS OR 01.46% 

 

/AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.04%/EUROPEAN BOURSES RED EXCEPT LONDON 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The NIKKEI: this TUESDAY morning CLOSED UP 378.80 POINTS OR 1.79% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trading from Europe and Asia

1/EUROPE OPENED RED EXCEPT LONDON

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang Sang CLOSED UP 417.57 POINTS OR 1.46%

 

 

 

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 33.32 POINTS OR 1.10% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Australia BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 04%

 

Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 378.80 POINTS OR 1.79%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 1296.10

silver:$15.41

Early TUESDAY morning USA 10 year bond yield: 2.65% !!! UP 1 IN POINTS from MONDAY’S night in basis points and it is trading WELL ABOVE resistance at 2.27-2.32%. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

 

The 30 yr bond yield 3.04 UP 1  IN BASIS POINTS from MONDAY night. (POLICY FED ERROR)/

USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 97.19 UP 3 CENT(S) from  MONDAY’s close.

This ends early morning numbers TUESDAY MORNING

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

And now your closing  TUESDAY NUMBERS \12: 00 PM

 

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 1.34% UP 2  in basis point(s) yield from MONDAY/

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: -.03%  DOWN 0   BASIS POINTS from MONDAY/JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

 

 

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 1.17% UP 2   IN basis point yield from MONDAY

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.54 DOWN 2    POINTS in basis point yield from MONDAY/

 

 

the Italian 10 yr bond yield is trading 137 points HIGHER than Spain.

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: FALLS  TO +.06%   IN BASIS POINTS ON THE DAY//

THE IMPORTANT SPREAD BETWEEN ITALIAN 10 YR BOND AND GERMAN 10 YEAR BOND IS 2.48% AND NOW ABOVE THE  THE 3.00% LEVEL WHICH WILL IMPLODE THE ENTIRE ITALIAN BANKING SYSTEM. AT 4% SPREAD THERE WILL BE A MASSIVE BANK RUN…

 

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY

Closing currency crosses for TUESDAY night/USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1281 UP   .0021 or 21 basis points

 

 

USA/Japan: 111.33 UP .050 OR YEN UP 5 basis points/

Great Britain/USA 1.31105 DOWN.0235( POUND DOWN 135  BASIS POINTS)

Canadian dollar UP 19 basis points to 1.3376

 

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

 

The USA/Yuan,CNY closed AT 6.7086    0N SHORE  (UP)

 

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:  6.7119(  YUAN UP)

TURKISH LIRA:  5.4607

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield closed at -.03%

 

 

 

Your closing 10 yr USA bond yield DOWN 0 IN basis points from MONDAY at 2.63 % //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%) very problematic USA 30 yr bond yield: 3.02 DOWN 0  in basis points on the day /

THE RISE IN BOTH THE 10 YR AND THE 30 YR ARE VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR VALUATIONS

Your closing USA dollar index, 96.96 DOWN 26 CENT(S) ON THE DAY/1.00 PM/

 

Your closing bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates for TUESDAY: 12:00 PM 

London: CLOSED UP  17.49 OR 0.25%

German Dax : DOWN 27.61 POINTS OR 249%

Paris Cac CLOSED UP 4.75 POINTS OR  0.09%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 20.50 POINTS OR  0.22%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 10.54 POINTS OR 0.05%

 

 

 

 

WTI Oil price; 57.34 1:00 pm;

Brent Oil: 66.81 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN /   ROUBLE CROSS:    65.69  THE CROSS LOWER BY 0.23 ROUBLES/DOLLAR (ROUBLE HIGHER BY 23 BASIS PTS)

 

TODAY THE GERMAN YIELD FALLS  TO +.06 FOR THE 10 YR BOND 1.00 PM EST EST

END

 

This ends the stock indices, oil price, currency crosses and interest rate closes for today 4:30 PM

Closing Price for Oil, 4:00 pm/and 10 year USA interest rate:

WTI CRUDE OIL PRICE 4:30 PM :  56.92

 

 

BRENT :  66.65

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: … 2.60.

 

 

 

 

 

 

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 2.99..

 

 

 

EURO/USA DOLLAR CROSS:  1.1296 ( up 137   BASIS POINTS)

USA/JAPANESE YEN:111.27 DOWN .066 (YEN UP 7  BASIS POINTS/..

 

 

USA DOLLAR INDEX: 96.94 DOWN  27 cent(s)/

The British pound at 4 pm: Great Britain Pound/USA:1.3065  DOWN 177 POINTS FROM YESTERDAY

the Turkish lira close: 5.4607

the Russian rouble 65.61   UP .30 Roubles against the uSA dollar.( UP 30 BASIS POINTS)

 

Canadian dollar:  1.3355 UP 39 BASIS pts

USA/CHINESE YUAN (CNY) :  6.7085  (ONSHORE)/

 

USA/CHINESE YUAN(CNH): 6.7064  (OFFSHORE)

German 10 yr bond yield at 5 pm: ,0.06%

 

The Dow closed DOWN 96.22 POINTS OR 0.38%

 

NASDAQ closed UP 32.97 POINTS OR 0.44%

 


VOLATILITY INDEX:  13.76 CLOSED DOWN 0.57 

 

LIBOR 3 MONTH DURATION: 2.608%//

 

 

 

FROM 2.597

 

 

 

And now your more important USA stories which will influence the price of gold/silver

TRADING IN GRAPH FORM FOR THE DAY/WEEKLY SUMMARY/FOLLOWED BY TODAY

Dow Slumps, Nasdaq Pumps As Boeing & Bond Yields Dump

Here’s the most important chart in the world this week…

Who is right? Bonds of course!!

*  * *

 

*  * *

China:

China had yet another National Team inspired buying-panic in the afternoon session to rescue stocks into the green…

 

FTSE outperformed ahead of the Brexit vote but EU markets were broadly lower today…

 

US markets were divergent once again with Dow (and Transports) lower but Nasdaq and S&P higher… (A weak close dragged small caps down to unch)…

 

Futures show the excitement once again at the cash open…

 

But Boeing’s dead-cat-bounce from yesterday’s cash session has well and truly died…(Boeing accounted for -160 points of the Dow’s 100 point loss)

 

Once again a dramatic short-squeeze dragged stocks higher…

 

Credit and VIX compressed further…

 

Treasury Yields tumbled dramatically on the day – completely ignoring the equity market gains…

 

With 30Y Yields breaking back below 3.00% (and 10Y < 2.60% – see top chart)

 

The Dollar Index tumbled for the 3rd day back below the 97.00 level…

 

Of course, all eyes were on Cable as the “meaningful vote” on Brexit…

 

The weak dollar provided support for commodities broadly, but silver outperformed on the day…

 

Gold jumped back above $1300…

 

Finally, we reflect on the sudden panic bid that has occurred in Nasdaq stocks in recent days. With Nasdaq earnings plunging to their lowest since July 2018, we wonder what magic hockey-stick these so-called investors are seeing…

 

MARKET TRADING/

 

 

ii)Market data/

USA consumer price growth is the slowest in 2 1/2 years.  Not a good sign

(courtesy zero hedge)

US Consumer Price Growth Slowest Since Sept 2016 As Auto, Drug Prices Slump

Headline consumer price inflation has now slowed for 6 of the last 7 months and dropped to just +1.5% YoY – the weakest since September 2016, amid falling prices for autos and prescription drugs. Core CPI also slipped once again to its weakest since Feb 2018.

Both headline and core CPI printed below expectations.

 

The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.1 percent in February, its smallest monthly increase since August 2018.

Under the hood, it was a mixed picture:

The index for personal care increased 0.6 percent in February, its largest monthly increase since April 2018. The apparel index, which rose 1.1 percent in January, increased 0.3 percent in February. The education index increased 0.3 percent, and the indexes for household furnishings and operations, airline fares, tobacco, motor vehicle insurance, and alcoholic beverages also rose in February.

The medical care index declined in February, falling 0.2 percent after rising in each of the five previous months. Prescription-drug prices fell 1 percent on a monthly basis, the most on record, bringing the annual decline to 1.2 percent —the largest drop since 1972.

The recreation index declined in February, falling 0.4 percent after rising 0.3 percent in January. The index for used cars and trucks fell 0.7 percent, and the index for new vehicles declined 0.2 percent; both indexes increased the prior month.

Finally, the shelter index increased 0.3 percent in February for the fourth consecutive month. The indexes for rent and owners’ equivalent rent both rose 0.3 percent, and the index for lodging away from home increased 1.3 percent.

The shelter index rose 3.4 percent over the last 12 months, a larger increase than the 3.2-percent increase for the 12 months ending January.

Of course, this is exactly what The Fed wants to see – slowing inflation enabling their “patient” outlook.

“With nothing in the outlook demanding an immediate policy response and particularly given muted inflation pressures, the committee has adopted a patient, wait-and-see approach,’’ Fed Chair Powell said in a speech in California.

Responding to questions, Powell said inflation in the U.S. is low, stable and doesn’t react much to slack in the economy.

iii)USA ECONOMIC/GENERAL STORIES

The proposed income tax for Illinois which will cause many to leave the state

(courtesy Mish Shedlock/Mishtalk)

About The “Fair Tax For Illinois”: How Much Will It Cost Your Family?

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk,

The Illinois Gov. seeks a constitutional amendment to change the tax code. He calls it a “fair tax”. Don’t be fooled.

New Illinois J. B. Governor Pritzker (D) has proposed sweeping changes to Illinois’ tax code, advocating a constitutional amendment to permit a graduated-rate income tax and proposing a new rate and bracket structure.

Pritzker’s plan which he labels a “fair tax” will encourage still more flight out of Illinois.

Jared Walczak for the Tax Foundation explains Twelve Things to Know About the “Fair Tax for Illinois”

Here are some snips from a lengthy article.

Key Findings

  • Under the proposal, corporate income would be taxed at 10.45 percent, the third-highest rate in the nation, while pass-through business income would be taxed at a top rate of 9.45 percent, the fourth highest such rate nationwide.
  • The proposal diverges sharply from ideal—or even typical—income tax structure. It omits inflation indexing (resulting in “bracket creep”), creates a marriage penalty, and includes a recapture provision which subjects the entirety of a taxpayer’s income to the top marginal rate once they reach that bracket.
  • The neighboring states of Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, and Missouri have all cut income taxes in recent years, while Illinois may be headed in the opposite direction.
  • The governor’s proposed tax rates are merely notional; should voters permit a graduated-rate income tax, there are compelling reasons to believe that rates may climb even higher, and that more taxpayers would be subjected to higher rates.
  • Were the proposal implemented, Illinois is projected to decline from 36th to 48th on the State Business Tax Climate Index, which measures tax structure.

Introduction

The new governor of Illinois, J.B. Pritzker (D), has one campaign behind him, but an even bigger one lies ahead: convincing the legislature—and Illinois voters—to scrap a key constitutional feature of Illinois’ system of taxation.

A provision in the state constitution which prohibits a graduated-rate income tax has long been a source of controversy. In a state where taxes tend to be high, it has also been crucial to keeping one tax (the individual income tax) highly competitive, because there are practical and political limits on just how high a rate can go when it is applied uniformly.

The constitutional amendment Gov. Pritzker is championing would change all that, and under the rates and brackets he has proposed, would give Illinois some of country’s highest income taxes (individual and corporate), particularly on businesses. That’s of particular concern in a state that has struggled to stem the tide of business departures, as the governor noted in remarks this week, but it’s only one of many issues raised by the proposal.

All told, the governor’s “Fair Tax for Illinois” proposal would result in a 10.45 percent combined rate on corporate income, and a 9.45 percent rate on about half the state’s pass-through income, including the “personal property replacement taxes” the state tacks onto rates.

Among the Highest Rates in the Country

When Illinois lawmakers repealed the state’s taxes on tangible personal property forty years ago, they paid for the repeal by creating a second set of taxes on both pass-through and corporate income, confusingly termed “personal property replacement taxes” (PPRTs). The name references the tax they replaced rather than the nature of the taxes themselves, which are nothing more than additional income tax levies of 2.5 percent on corporate income and 1.5 percent on the income of pass-through businesses, with revenue devoted to local government. The income of pass-through businesses (S Corps, partnerships, LLCs, and sole proprietorships) “passes through” to their owners’ individual income tax returns (hence the name). Including these taxes, the top rate on pass-through businesses would be 9.45 percent and the new rate on corporate income would be 10.45 percent.

This would represent the third-highest corporate rate in the country, after Iowa (12 percent) and New Jersey (11.5 percent), and Iowa is scheduled to reduce its top corporate rate to 9.8 percent in a few years. It also represents the fourth-highest rate on pass-through income nationwide, after California (13.3 percent), Oregon (9.9 percent), and Minnesota (9.85 percent). The 7.95 percent rate on non-business income would be the eighth-highest state rate in the country.

Neighboring States

Indiana has reduced its top corporate income tax rate from 8 to 5.75 percent and is on track to bring it down to 4.9 percent in a few years, while its individual income tax rate has gone from a flat 3.4 percent to 3.23 percent over five years. Policymakers in Indiana have consciously positioned themselves as a more competitive alternative to Illinois, and they aren’t alone.

In Missouri, a set of bills in 2018 reduced the top income tax rate from 5.9 to 5.5 percent, with a further phasedown to 5.1 percent in the works, while the corporate rate is set to fall from 6.5 to 4 percent in 2020.

Meanwhile in Iowa, a package of reforms adopted last year will ultimately bring the top individual income tax rate to 6.5 percent (from 8.98 percent) and the corporate rate to 9.8 percent (from 12 percent),

Kentucky just replaced its graduated-rate individual and corporate income taxes with single-rate taxes of 5 percent. Even in Minnesota, legislators are contemplating tax cuts to offset additional revenue from tax conformity.

In short, Illinois would be raisings its tax rates at a time when its neighbors are headed in the opposite direction.

Tax Cliff

Tax rates are typically marginal, which is to say that they are imposed on marginal income. For instance, under the governor’s proposal, the first $10,000 in taxable income would be taxed at a rate of 4.7 percent, and someone earning $11,000 would only pay the higher rate of 4.9 percent on the additional $1,000, not the whole $11,000. According to handouts outlining Gov. Pritzker’s proposal, however, “[o]nce income reaches $1.0 million, entire income is taxed at 7.95 [percent] rate” (emphasis in original).

This creates a significant tax cliff, where a person making $1,000,000 pays $70,935 in taxes, while someone earning one dollar more pays $79,500, a difference of $8,565 on a single dollar of income.

Marriage Penalty

A marriage penalty exists whenever two earners owe more tax filing jointly than they would if they filed separately. The penalty can emerge when any part of the tax code—brackets, deductions, or exemptions—do not increase for joint filers, but bracket widths under a graduated-rate income tax are particularly important. Many states double their bracket widths for married couples to avoid the penalty, but the Illinois proposal envisions the same brackets for single and joint filers.

Bracket Creep

Within a graduated rate structure, inflation can impose a hidden tax, increasing the taxpayer’s liability as a greater share of their income is taxed even if that income has not increased in real terms, since bracket kick-in thresholds are fixed. To avoid this “bracket creep,” most states with graduated-rate structures index bracket widths and other features of the income tax to inflation. Pritzker’s proposal gives no indication of this, meaning that over time, taxpayers will pay an increasing amount of taxes as a percentage of income—even if their income has not increased in real terms.

Decline in Illinois’ Business Competitiveness

Every year, the Tax Foundation publishes a new edition of the State Business Tax Climate Index, a measure of state tax structure. Illinois currently ranks 36th overall, with its competitive income tax balancing out poor tax structure elsewhere. If, however, the state were to adopt the graduated rate structure Pritzker proposes, with top rates of 9.45 percent on pass-through income and 10.45 percent on corporate income, while creating a marriage penalty and forgoing inflation indexing, the state’s overall rank would plummet from 36th to 48th, ahead of only California and New Jersey.

Current vs Projected Illinois Tax Ranking

States should care about their Index ranking because it is measuring something real and economically meaningful—the competitiveness, or lack thereof, of the state’s overall tax structure. Were Pritzker’s proposal adopted, Illinois would trail its peers in just about every aspect of its tax code. If businesses and individuals are leaving the state now, these policies can only make the problem worse.

End Jared Walczak – Mish Comments

Progressives in Illinois have all but ruined the state. Pritzker seems bound and determined to finish off the job.

With House leader Michael Madigan fully in charge of legislation, Pritzker is poised to do just that.

Dictator of Illinois

The Illinois Policy Institute notes that Madigan has already broken the record for longest-serving state legislative speaker in U.S. history. No American has led a state House of Representatives longer than Illinois House Speaker Mike Madigan. He has held the speakership for all but two years since 1983.

Democrats are responsible for this mess. No legislation passes without Madigan’s stamp of approval

Only One Thing in the Way

This proposal would easily succeed were it not for one simple fact. It requires a change in the Illinois constitution.

The constitution needs changing for sure but not in this direction.

Illinois desperately needs pension reform and bankruptcy reform. Instead, we have garbage proposals like this disguised under a “fair tax” label.

Constitutional Amendment

The Illinois Constitution can be amended either by Constitutional Convention (if 3/5 of the members in each House of the General Assembly agree to it, which voters can approve or disapprove) or by the General Assembly (if 3/5 of each house of the General Assembly approve the amendment, which is then submitted to the voters at the next general election).

The former won’t happen. It would open the door to genuine reform that Illinois needs.

Five Certainties

The amount the tax will cost each individual depends on personal finances. But here are five certainties.

  1. The tax hike would depress job growth
  2. The tax hike would raise taxes on the middle class
  3. The tax hikes would encourage business flight
  4. The tax hike would encourage flight of wealthy individuals
  5. Since revenue projections won’t happen, Illinois progressives would seek still more tax hikes once the constitution allows for it.

Don’t Be Stupid

Here’s my message to Illinoisans: Don’t be stupid.

SWAMP STORIES

here we go again:  Now we witness New York’s Attorney General open a civil probe into Trump’s dealings with Deutsche bank and also his failed attempt to buy the Buffalo Bills

(courtesy zerohedge)

New York AG Opens Probe Into Trump’s Failed Bid For Buffalo Bills

Even after Deutsche Bank senior executives – including Christian Sewing, who once ran the bank’s wealth management business but is now its CEO – decided during the 2016 campaign to curtail the bank’s relationship with the Trump, allegedly over worries that Trump, if elected, might default on a $350 million loan while in office – lawmakers and prosecutors have continued to bash the bank as “the biggest money laundering bank in the world” and threatened to leave no stone unturned in their examination of its relationship with the Trump family.

And as if investigations launched by the House Financial Services and House Intelligence Committees wouldn’t be comprehensive enough (it’s also believed that the Mueller probe has investigated Trump’s ties to the bank), New York State Attorney General Letitia James has launched a civil inquiry into the bank, demanding via subpoena more information about its involvement in Trump’s failed bid to buy the Buffalo Bills, among other dealings with the now-first family.

Trump

The inquiry, according to the New York Times, was prompted by Michael Cohen’s allegations that Trump would inflate his assets on financial statements, particularly when applying for loans (or trying to get his name on the Forbes List of wealthiest people).

Here’s more from the New York Times:

The new inquiry, by the office of the attorney general, Letitia James, was prompted by the congressional testimony last month of Michael D. Cohen, President Trump’s former lawyer and fixer, the person briefed on the subpoenas said. Mr. Cohen testified under oath that Mr. Trump had inflated his assets in financial statements, and Mr. Cohen provided copies of statements he said had been submitted to Deutsche Bank.

The inquiry by Ms. James’s office is a civil investigation, not a criminal one, although its focus and scope were unclear. The attorney general has broad authority under state law to investigate fraud and can fine — or in extreme cases, go to court to try to dissolve — a business that is found to have engaged in repeated illegality.

James’s subpeonas seek loan applications and information on mortgages, lines of credit and other financing involving Deutsche Bank and New Jersey-based Investors Bank, which also received subpoenas. In addition to the failed Bills deal, James and her office are also looking into Trump Organization projects including the Trump International Hotel, The Trump National Doral, Trump International Hotel and Tower (in Chicago) and Trump Park Avenue.

The request to Deutsche Bank sought loan applications, mortgages, lines of credit and other financing transactions in connection with the Trump International Hotel in Washington; the Trump National Doral outside Miami; and the Trump International Hotel and Tower in Chicago, the person said.

Investigators also requested records connected to an unsuccessful effort to buy the Bills, the person said. Mr. Trump gave Deutsche Bank bare-bones personal financial statements in 2014 when he planned to make a bid for the team, The New York Times has reported. The deal fell through when the team was sold to a rival bidder for $1.4 billion.

Mr. Trump worked with a small United States-based unit of Deutsche Bank that serves ultra-wealthy people. The unit lent Mr. Trump more than $100 million in 2012 to pay for the Doral golf resort and $170 million in 2015 to transform the Old Post Office Building in Washington into a luxury hotel.

New Jersey-based Investors Bank was subpoenaed for records relating to Trump Park Avenue, a project it had backed.
Deutsche Bank and Investors Bank declined to comment. The Trump Organization did not respond to requests for comment.

Keep in mind that this inquiry is civil, not criminal – so the stakes for Trump aren’t very high. If anything, the inquiry will send a chilling message to any banks that still have the temerity to deal with the Trump Family during and after his tenure in office: Prosecutors will be watching their every step.

 

end
This is a good one:  The Fed arrest dozens including famous actresses and actors (William Macy) and Felecity Huffman in the largest college admissions scam ever prosecuted.
(courtesy zerohedge)

Feds Arrest Dozens, Including Famous Actresses, In “Largest College Admissions Scam Ever Prosecuted”

Federal prosecutors announced that they were charging dozens of people, including famous actresses Felicity Huffman and Lori Loughlin, in an alleged scheme to help students get admitted to colleges under false pretenses on Tuesday. They are being charged with conspiracy to commit mail fraud. 38 people have reportedly been arrested thus far.

Prosecutors are alleging that the individuals charged tried to bribe college entrance exam officials in order to cheat on admissions tests and that some conspired to bribe coaches and administrators to label their children as “recruited athletes”. Athletes can sometimes get preferential treatment.

Among the colleges involved were Georgetown University, Yale University, Stanford University and University of California Los Angeles, according to a WSJ writeup. Charitable organizations were used as fronts for the bribery payments, according to authorities. A Newport Beach college counseling business, the Edge College & Career Network LLC, was named as the main facilitator of the bribes.

More than $6 million in bribes were paid, according to The Daily Mail, who also reported that “[Lori] Loughlin and her husband ‘agreed to pay bribes totaling $500,000 in exchange for having their two daughters designated as recruits to the USC crew team'”. Loughlin’s husband Mossimo Giannulli has also been charged. It was also reported that Huffman paid a $15,000 charitable contribution. Her and her husband William H. Macy had planned to do the same for a younger daughter of theirs later this month, according to reports.

It was alleged that Huffman’s daughter was able to cheat on her SATs as a result of the payments. According to the Daily Mail:

Huffman had the site where he daughter took the SATs moved from her own high school to a test center West Hollywood.

Her test was then administered by a proctor who had flown in from Tampa and told investigators that he ‘facilitated cheating, either by correcting the student’s answers after the test or by actively assisting the student during the exam.’

In this case, Huffman daughter scored a 1420, which was a 400 point improvement from her PSAT results just one year prior.

Soon after the proctor was paid $40,000 by the same organization that Huffman would later give a $15,000 donation according to the documents. 

The document by authorities filed on Tuesday read:

‘Beginning in or about 2011, and continuing through the present, the defendants — principally individuals whose high-school age children were applying to college — conspired with others to use bribery and other forms of fraud to facilitate their children’s admission to colleges and universities in the District of Massachusetts and elsewhere, including Yale University, Stanford University, the University of Texas, the University of Southern California, and the University of Southern California — Los Angeles.’

Boston authorities called the bust “the largest college admissions scam ever prosecuted by the Department of Justice.”

Embedded video

TicToc by Bloomberg

@tictoc

Boston authorities announce charges in what they call “the largest college admissions scam ever prosecuted by the Department of Justice.”

The authorities continued, stating that the group involved included “CEOs…successful securities and real estate investors, 2 well-known actresses, a famous fashion designer and a co-chairman of a global law firm”.

Embedded video

TicToc by Bloomberg

@tictoc

“These parents are a catalog of wealth and privilege.”

Boston authorities say the parents involved in the scam include “CEOs…successful securities and real estate investors, 2 well-known actresses, a famous fashion designer and a co-chairman of a global law firm”

Bill McGlashan, the millionaire investor and CAA board member who founded The Rise Fund alongside Bono is also reported to be included among the names of those charged. We can’t wait to see what other names wind up being disclosed as part of the alleged scheme.

END
Rahm Emanuel, the Democrat mayor of Chicago warns democrats that socialist ideals will not win the White House in 2020
(courtesy Sara Carter)

Rahm Emanuel Warns Democrats: Socialist Ideals Won’t Give Us White House In 2020

Via SaraCarter.com,

Rahm Emanuel, the Chicago Mayor warned the Democrats that they might be in danger of self-destructing if they continue to push socialist ideals and go after green deals and medicare for all.

In an oped for The Atlantic he said:

Earth to Democrats: Republicans are telling you something when they gleefully schedule votes on proposals like the Green New Deal, Medicare for all, and a 70 percent marginal tax rate.

When they’re more eager to vote on the Democratic agenda than we are, we should take a step back and ask ourselves whether we’re inadvertently letting the political battle play out on their turf rather than our own.

If Trump’s only hope for winning a second term turns on his ability to paint us as socialists, we shouldn’t play to type.”

Rahm Emanuel seem to be very concerned of the ideas that some of the Democrat stars and presidential contenders are pushing these days, here are few of them:

Click here to read in full Rahm Emanuel’s article in The Atlantic…

SWAMP STORIES/MAJOR STORIES//THE KING REPORT
and special thanks to Chris Powell of GATA for sending this down for us:

Trump’s $4.7 Trillion Budget Headed for Rejection by Congress

White House wants $8.6 billion more for southern border wall

    The proposal calls for reducing regular non-defense discretionary spending from $597 billion to $543 billion, a $54 billion, or 9 percent cut in 2020. When disaster-relief funding is factored in, the cut amounts to $28 billion, or 4.6 percent… The EPA would receive a 31 percent cut compared with its December funding level, while State would receive a 23 percent cut and Housing and Urban Development would see a 16 percent cut. Along with Defense, the departments of Homeland Security and Veterans Affairs would get increases larger than expected inflation…

     Trump in his fiscal 2019 plan called for $3.6 trillion in cuts and this year he is proposing $3.9 trillion in cuts tempered by $1.1 trillion in increases for priorities like defense and infrastructure. As in the past, Trump is proposing $200 billion for infrastructure improvements…

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-11/trump-s-4-7-trillion-budget-headed-for-rejection-by-congress

New York City is edging toward financial disaster, experts warn

Long-term debt is now more than $81,100 per household, and Mayor Bill de Blasio is ramping up to spend as much as $3 billion more in the new budget than the current $89.2 billion…

https://nypost.com/2019/03/09/new-york-city-is-edging-toward-financial-disaster-experts-warn/

House Government Oversight Chair Elijah Cummings (D-CA) has recommended Michael Cohen to the Department of Justice for perjury.

 

Chuck Grassley Pressed Mueller over ‘Selective Use’ of Emails in Trump Adviser’s Court Filings

Grassley said that prosecutors’ “statement of offense” against Papadopoulos quoted selectively from campaign emails in a way that suggested that the Trump campaign wanted a low-level staffer to meet with Russians… The Iowa Republican said other campaign emails showed that the Trump team merely wanted a campaign aide to reject offers to meet with Russia…

https://dailycaller.com/2019/03/11/chuck-grassley-mueller-selective-use-papadopoulos/

 

Ann Coulter rips ‘shallow, narcissistic conman’ Trump, ‘lying media’ at Forum Club

“Trump may be a shallow, narcissistic conman, but that doesn’t mean the media are not the enemy of the people. Both things can be true,” said Coulter. She later said the one positive of Trump’s presidency could be the “total destruction of the lying media.”…

     Coulter brushed off the president’s criticism in an interview with The Palm Beach Post after her Forum Club remarks.  “I don’t know why he doesn’t just ignore me. He doesn’t mind ignoring the rest of his base,” Coulter said…

https://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/20190311/ann-coulter-rips-shallow-narcissistic-conman-trump-lying-media-at-forum-club

 

Tucker Carlson UNLOADS on Do-Nothing GOP “Pretend” Party who is Controlled by the Left

Republicans in Washington do a fairly credible imitation of an opposition party. They give speeches. They tweet quite a bit. They make concerned noises about how liberals are bad. But on the deepest level it’s all a pose. In their minds where it matters Republican leaders are controlled by the leftThey know exactly what they’re allowed to say and believe. They know what the rules are. They may understand that those rules are written by the very people who seek their destruction. They ruthlessly support them anyway…

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2019/03/tucker-carlson-unloads-on-do-nothing-gop-pretend-party-for-bowing-to-liberal-outrage-mob-video/

 

DNC generals have decided to fight the last war.  They have chosen Milwaukee for the 2020 Convention.

 

The Intercept has determined that a corporation owned by a Chinese couple made a major donation to Jeb Bush’s Super PAC Right to Rise USA… Neil Bush, the brother of both Jeb and George W. Bush, is a member of APIC’s board…  https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/jeb-bush-campaign-citizens-united_us_57a22559e4b0104052a0b066

 

-END-

I WILL SEE YOU WEDNESDAY NIGHT

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